The “PM and the Pendulum” model has been successfully forecasting British elections since 2005. This year’s predictions suggest UK Conservatives are in for a major drubbing on July 4.
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Articles on Public opinion polls
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Both the Biden and Trump campaigns will work to mobilize their bases and maximize turnout among their supporters. But those votes alone will probably not be enough to ensure victory.
The 2024 elections may be the tipping point that enables opposition parties to portray themselves as viable contenders in forming a national coalition government.
Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. But advance polls are still useful in recognizing trends in voter preferences, and candidates’ weak points.
Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.
