tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/arson-7557/articlesArson – The Conversation2023-05-30T05:32:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065022023-05-30T05:32:54Z2023-05-30T05:32:54ZRevenge, excitement, or profit: why do people commit arson?<p>The huge blaze that struck Randle Street in central Sydney last week is now the subject of an <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8210175/teens-sought-by-police-over-massive-sydney-cbd-blaze/">arson investigation</a>, authorities have confirmed.</p>
<p>Many details remain unclear, including the safety and whereabouts of some of the people who were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-27/wall-in-sydney-building-moves-after-major-fire/102401470">reportedly sleeping rough in the building</a>, as well as the nature of any criminal charges that may arise.</p>
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<p>Right now there’s also a fire burning on a southern Great Barrier Reef island, threatening a sensitive marine site, which local rangers are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-30/rangers-battle-suspicious-fire-on-great-barrier-reef-island/102408970">treating as suspicious</a>.</p>
<p>While arson is yet to be confirmed in either of these specific cases, it’s timely to look at the issue of arson more generally.</p>
<p>Aside from the personal and environmental implications, the financial burden of arson is huge. Recent data are difficult to obtain, although it was estimated that the total cost of arson in Australia was <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rpp129.pdf">A$2.3 billion in 2011</a>, and the annual figure is likely to have increased since then.</p>
<p>There’s a lack of scientific research attempting to understand the arsonist, perhaps because the “typical arsonist” doesn’t exist. Or maybe it’s because so few arsons are solved, and the rate of successful convictions remains low.</p>
<p>However, the research that has been done suggests there are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B012369397700203X">six main</a> <a href="https://www.firehouse.com/community-risk/investigation-equipment/article/10464930/arson-investigation-the-six-motives-for-firesetting">types of</a> <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shelby-Miller-8/publication/342276745_Applications_of_Criminology_to_the_Multidimensional_Crime_of_Arson/links/5eeb748092851ce9e7ecad80/Applications-of-Criminology-to-the-Multidimensional-Crime-of-Arson.pdf">arsonist</a>.</p>
<h2>6 types of arsonist</h2>
<p>Arson, as <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab1#:%7E:text=Arson%20is%20the%20act%20of,through%20the%20use%20of%20fire">defined</a> by the Australian Institute of Criminology, is the act of “intentionally and maliciously destroying or damaging property through the use of fire”.</p>
<p>For a fire to be classified as arson there must be intent – the intention to cause harm or damage.</p>
<p>Arson can also be the primary or secondary motive – is setting the fire the main purpose, or is the fire being used to disguise another activity?</p>
<p>Here are the main six underlying reasons why someone might commit arson:</p>
<p><strong>1. The ‘for profit’ arsonist</strong></p>
<p>There are many ways someone can profit from arson. This includes extortion, or destroying a property to clear a piece of land. But most commonly these crimes are attempts at insurance fraud.</p>
<p>There are different types of property insurance fraud, including residential, commercial and vehicular. Residential fraud is committed by the homeowner or tenant; commercial fraud is committed by an owner to destroy company statements or claim on insurance; and vehicular fraud may occur when someone can’t afford their repayments.</p>
<p>These are largely one-off crimes and are very focused, and the offender is easier to catch than with other types of arson because they have a direct link with the damaged property or its owner.</p>
<p><strong>2. Pyromaniacs</strong></p>
<p>These perpetrators light fires for thrills and attention. Their fires range from bins to occupied buildings, and the size and risk associated with the fires may increase over time as the arsonist needs more excitement with each event.</p>
<p>This type of offender is often voyeuristic, and may wait for emergency services to attend, sometimes even calling them themselves, as they want to be present at the scene. They may video or photograph the fire and the first responders.</p>
<p>As a result, for investigators it’s important to capture images of the crowd to see who was watching.</p>
<p>This category includes first responders who set fires in order to be a “hero” in attendance, seeking praise and recognition for their bravery.</p>
<p>For example, a New South Wales volunteer firefighter was charged in January 2021 for allegedly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/rfs-member-charged-with-lighting-30-fires-in-nsw-20210124-p56wei.html">starting more than 30 fires</a> during that summer.</p>
<p><strong>3. Crime concealment</strong></p>
<p>For these offenders, the arson is secondary to the concealment of another serious crime, such as murder or theft.</p>
<p>Fire is a very successful means of destroying many forms of evidence, such as fingerprints that may have been left at a scene or clothing worn during the crime.</p>
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<p><strong>4. The revenge arsonist</strong></p>
<p>These offenders are emotionally driven, and set fires out of anger or hatred, or for revenge for a real or perceived wrong. The need for retaliation could be based in a personal slight – such as an affair, or having been dismissed from a job.</p>
<p>Targets vary from individuals to institutions. And because of the emotional state of the offender, these crimes are usually disorganised and use unsophisticated methods of starting the fire, meaning they leave more evidence behind than some other types.</p>
<p><strong>5. Extremist motivations</strong></p>
<p>Extremist arsonists are driven by religious, political or social agendas.</p>
<p>There are two types of extremist arsonist, the first being those reacting to a civil disturbance, such as the death of a person in custody. Activities may include vandalism and looting, and the purpose may be to draw attention to a perceived injustice. </p>
<p>For example, 36-year-old Jose A. Felan Jr was sentenced to 6.5 years in prison in the United States after he <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/jose-felan-36-gets-6-12-years-in-prison-for-multiple-arsons-during-george-floyd-unrest/">set fires</a> at a school and two shops, during the riots that followed the police killing of George Floyd during an arrest in May 2020.</p>
<p>The second type are terrorist arsonists, known as pyro-terrorism, which is <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/pyro-terrorism-threat-arson-induced-forest-fires-future-terrorist">defined</a> as “the use of incendiary attacks to intimidate or coerce a government or civilian population”. These offenders may use arson as one of a range of measures, and work alone or in cells.</p>
<p>Because their crimes are premeditated with targets selected carefully to have the most social, economic or political impact, these offenders are often highly organised, and may use advanced incendiary devices. The purpose is to cause mass fear, beyond the actual target itself.</p>
<p><strong>6. Vandalism</strong></p>
<p>Vandal arsonists are typically juveniles, who set fire to bins, abandoned vehicles or empty buildings, and may do so to cover up other crimes such as theft. Often an additional factor in the starting of the fire is peer pressure or gang initiation, as these arsonists often act in groups.</p>
<p>For these offenders, arson can be what criminologists call a “gateway crime” – a crime that may lead to more severe criminal activity.</p>
<p>But if such offenders are given suitable support, rehabilitation can be highly successful to prevent them becoming serious, repeat offenders.</p>
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<p>Although these are the main motives for arson, each does not act in a vacuum, and more than one may jointly contribute to the arsonist’s motivations. For example, someone may be murdered out of revenge, and then the offender sets a fire to conceal that crime or destroy evidence. </p>
<p>Arson is highly complex crime, with a wide range of social, psychological and environmental influences. More work needs to be done to understand the arsonist and their motivations, and how they can be identified, caught, convicted and hopefully rehabilitated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research highlights at least six different motivations for perpetrators that commit arson.Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of NewcastleJoel Robert McGregor, Lecturer in Criminology, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1724102021-11-25T14:33:29Z2021-11-25T14:33:29ZActs of violence or a cry for help? What fuels Kenya’s school fires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433888/original/file-20211125-19-1ar0sua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A young boy walks by a burnt-out dormitory building set on fire by students after a night of school unrest in western Kenya.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The torching of schools by students has become a <a href="http://crimeresearch.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Rapid-Assessment-of-Arsons-in-Secondary-Schools-in-Kenya-2016.pdf">regular occurrence</a> in Kenya over the past two decades. The most infamous of these is the <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/kenya/article/2001253987/kyanguli-school-fire-tragedy-that-claimed-67-lives">dormitory fire</a> at a secondary school near Nairobi in which 67 students were killed 20 years ago. This year, another spate of dormitory and school building fires forced the government to <a href="https://www.pd.co.ke/news/all-learners-to-break-for-midterm-in-two-weeks-clarifies-magoha-102117/">close all primary and secondary schools</a> for a few days. </p>
<p>Amid a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41145324">wave of deadly school fires in 2017</a>, the government-run National Crime Research Centre conducted <a href="http://crimeresearch.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Rapid-Assessment-of-Arsons-in-Secondary-Schools-in-Kenya-2016.pdf">“a rapid assessment of arson in secondary schools”</a>. The centre outlined possible causes and strategies to address the problem. The causes listed included exam-related anxiety, schoolwork load, peer pressure, school leadership, and lack of guidance and counselling. </p>
<p>These explanations overlooked other important factors. These include deplorable conditions in many public schools, oppression of students and violation of their rights to humane treatment. A focus on external factors ignores the psychological impacts of institutionalisation and authoritarian governance.</p>
<p>There have been few academic studies of the Kenyan school protest phenomenon. A 2013 <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336278980_Students_Violent_Protests_and_the_Process_of_Self-Realization_in_Kenyan_Secondary_Schools">study</a> concluded that violence was a means to self realisation that only served to perpetuate cycles of violence. Another in 2014 drew the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43817396">conclusion</a> that students have learned over the years that protest is the language that elicits response from authorities. Finally, a third study observed that school violence is the outcome of conflicts due to <a href="https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=95131">political and social differences</a> that could be managed by peace education.</p>
<p>My own <a href="https://www.eujem.com/boarding-schools-as-colonizing-and-oppressive-spaces-towards-understanding-student-protest-and-violence-in-kenyan-secondary-schools">research</a> found that student violence was a response to the devaluing and oppressive environment in boarding schools. We argue that school authorities could mitigate violent protests by providing formal political means of representation and democratic decision-making. They should create new spaces for negotiation and peaceful protest and listen to the voices of students.</p>
<h2>The Kenyan boarding school</h2>
<p>Boarding schools in Kenya are closed off facilities where students live and learn for a period of nine months in a year. Historically, they were set up by colonial governments and Christian missionaries with the purpose of <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/IPS_Boarding_Schools.pdf">assimilating or civilising indigenous people</a>. These schools were patterned on colonial models of education to produce needed skills and labour to serve the colonialist. </p>
<p>Today, there are three tiers of secondary boarding schools in Kenya – national, county, and district. National schools are well equipped and attract the highest performing students and wealthy parents. The least endowed are the district schools.</p>
<p>Overall, parents prefer secondary boarding schools because they tend to have better facilities than day schools. Students have more time to focus on education, and parents leave teachers to discipline the children on their behalf. Other benefits of boarding schools include learning social skills, independence, and extracurricular activities. They also form part of government policy to bring children from different regions of Kenya to learn together and <a href="http://repository.kippra.or.ke/bitstream/handle/123456789/1359/MEST-Sessional-Paper-No-1-of-2005-on-a-Policy-Framework-for-Education-Training-and-Research.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y">for economies of scale</a>. </p>
<p>But these schools have <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Africa-Works-Disorder-Political-Instrument/dp/0253212871">retained</a> their colonial hierarchical legacies of control, authoritarianism, violence, alienation, bureaucracy, and strict discipline. There is limited consideration for student needs, balance of power, technological advances, changes in the economic structure, and emerging progressive laws. They are what the American sociologist Erving Goffman called <a href="https://www.open.edu/openlearn/ocw/pluginfile.php/638332/mod_resource/content/1/chapter13.pdf">“total institutions”</a>. Students are organised under strict rules and singular authority. Daily activities are carried out collectively on a rigid schedule of explicit order. </p>
<p>Punishments are severe and consequences predictable – rebellion. </p>
<p>My co-researcher and I undertook a three-year project of gathering data about boarding schools in Kenya for the purpose of understanding the roots of persistent student protests and violence. The study focused on three boarding schools that had experienced protests and violence before and at the time of this study. One school served girls only, the other boys only and the third was a co-ed school. </p>
<p>Initial interviews with those who had experienced school protests or violence led to others who were approached to participate in the study. Respondents were teachers, school administrators, county officials, students, and members of the community. The research revealed that students experienced prison-like conditions in boarding schools. As a result of the dehumanising experiences at the hands of the school authorities, students vented their frustration through destructive behaviour, including violent protests.</p>
<h2>Stuck in the past</h2>
<p>Boarding school attendance is resilient in Kenya because of <a href="https://www.academia.edu/5821227/A_Comparative_Evaluation_of_Direct_Private_Costs_in_Day_and_Boarding_Schools_after_the_introduction_of_free_secondary_education_in_the_Kenyan_schools">economy of scale, bureaucratic control and efficiency</a>. The result is that the direct supervision of millions of children has been transferred from parents to educators who often know little about the students. Until they get to school, the children know little about boarding schools as there is no preparation for transition.</p>
<p>At any rate, nothing could prepare any student for the worst excesses of boarding school life in Kenya. A 2017 report described <a href="https://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/life/chilling-details-bullying-torture-alliance-high-school-photos">chilling accounts of bullying</a> at the country’s top school. Students pulled out of a dormitory at night and frog marched while being beaten; students forced to wake up at night to clean toilets and classrooms while being whipped with belts and hockey sticks; younger boys missing meals due to inadequate cutlery and short mealtimes. </p>
<p>These experiences are forms of violence with varying intensities on their effects. However, society is more fixated on student violence than the autocratic nature of institutions and the oppressive structures <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1514792">which nurtured it</a>. Until authorities shift focus to the deep negative experiences and anguish in boarding school, the burning is likely going to continue.</p>
<p>Students are political actors and conscientious beings with expectations and capacities to act. When dehumanised, students will act, react, or engage, sometimes with protest and intense violence. Kenyan students <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43817396">have learned</a> that arson is effective as a tactic in protest politics. Some of the students we interviewed considered protests and violence as instruments of power to negotiate survival needs. </p>
<h2>What authorities can do</h2>
<p>Although suggestions have been made to <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/education/article/2001418716/magoha-end-of-boarding-schools-to-be-gradual">abolish</a> Kenyan boarding schools, the problems plaguing the institutions are complex and systemic. Closing boarding schools is the path of least resistance by bureaucrats who avoid reform that would change balance of power. Boarding schools are not in themselves a problem, what happens in the schools are the problem and these can be changed. </p>
<p>Democratic space and public participation have expanded dramatically in Kenya in the last two decades. However, boarding schools have been left behind. There is minimal student participation or engagement in decisions that govern them. There is a strong case for school administrators providing formal political <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40223829">means of representation and democratic decision-making</a> to mitigate conditions that lead to strife in boarding schools. </p>
<p>Literature <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/09513541011080011/full/html">indicates</a> that successful schools embrace democratic principles of leadership, social justice, and community engagement. These would reduce the psychological injury and the pressure associated with total institutionalisation – which offers escape through unrest, protest, and non-gratuitous violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Teresa A. Wasonga does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Student violence is a response to the devaluing and oppressive environment in boarding schools.Teresa A. Wasonga, Professor, Educational Administration, Northern Illinois UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1647172021-07-26T15:24:04Z2021-07-26T15:24:04ZMilitary not a magic bullet: South Africa needs to do more for long term peace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413119/original/file-20210726-26-vb3azi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African Defence Force troops on patrol in Alexandra, Johannesburg, following recent violence and looting. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a show of force unprecedented since South Africa became a democracy in 1994, the South African National Defence Force has <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/sandf-forces-continue-to-arrive-in-kzn-following-a-week-of-violence-faae84c3-64b0-474b-9716-f5147c86fcb6">commissioned 25,000</a> soldiers for deployment across KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, the two provinces most affected by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/22/south-africa-unrest-death-toll-jumps-to-more-than-300">recent riots and large scale looting</a>. </p>
<p>President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the deployment of the troops to <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/address-president-cyril-ramaphosa-acts-violence-and-destruction-property">support the country’s police</a>, who had been overwhelmed by the scale of the violence.</p>
<p>Governments usually deploy the military as the last line of defence when they face an insurrection or <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/qaanitah_hunter/qaanitah-hunter-an-insurrection-or-not-why-governments-confusion-doesnt-solve-sas-crises-20210721">revolt</a>. The threat of or use of military force is the ultimate arbiter to quell unrest that threatens state stability or the safety of citizens, as seen in Nigeria, where the deployment of the army on internal security operations <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-use-of-nigerian-soldiers-in-civil-unrest-whats-in-place-and-whats-missing-149283">has increased dramatically since 1999</a>.</p>
<p>In South Africa, the military has recently been deployed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-army-is-being-used-to-fight-cape-towns-gangs-why-its-a-bad-idea-120455">counter gang violence</a> on the Cape Flats and during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-military-is-not-suited-for-the-fight-against-covid-19-heres-why-138560">COVID-19 pandemic</a>. In all these instances, there are concerns about how effective it is in these roles. </p>
<p>In South Africa, for now, the deployment of the army troops to assist the police has brought about an <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2021/07/21/explainer-what-caused-south-africa-s-week-of-rioting//">uneasy calm</a>. But what South Africans are seeing is a negative peace – where a degree of normality returns, but in which the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/422690?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents">underlying causes of the conflict remain</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-army-is-being-used-to-fight-cape-towns-gangs-why-its-a-bad-idea-120455">The army is being used to fight Cape Town's gangs. Why it's a bad idea</a>
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<p>The military may help create a more stable and secure environment, curb violence and unrest in the short term, but this is unlikely to result in a <a href="https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/4135/413546002004.pdf">sustainable and lasting peace</a>. The cultural and structural issues underlying the violence need to be <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-15-whats-behind-violence-in-south-africa-a-sociologists-perspective/">addressed</a>. These relate to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-underscores-gross-inequalities-in-south-africa-and-the-need-to-fix-them-135070">inequalities</a> and injustices embedded in the structure of society. </p>
<p>The military is no magic bullet.</p>
<h2>Concerns about army deployment</h2>
<p>There are many concerns around the use of the military internally in domestic operations within the borders of one’s own country.</p>
<p>The first concerns the government’s use of the military <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10246029.2019.1650787">against its own citizens</a>. As seen in both Nigeria and South Africa, the military is typically not trained or equipped to deal with civil unrest and has limited experience in riot control.</p>
<p>One risk is that communities might deliberately act out in ways that <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/news/general/SANDF-covid-19">provoke the soldiers</a>, which could result in excessive use of force. This can affect trust in the military, affecting the legitimacy of the state. The South African government has already faced criticism for its heavy handed and highly militarised approach during the <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/SouthAfrica/News/un-human-rights-office-highlights-toxic-lockdown-culture-in-sa-20200428">early phase of lockdown in 2020</a>. However, in general the population has a far higher level of trust in the military <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dispatches/ab_r6_dispatchno90_south_africa_trust_in_officials.pdf">than in other state institutions</a>.</p>
<p>The second risk pertains to prominence given to the military when faced with situations of civil unrest. Giving the military a prominent role in political decision-making in dealing with civil unrest can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-army-is-being-used-to-fight-cape-towns-gangs-why-its-a-bad-idea-120455">lead to a culture of militarism and militarisation</a>. This results in the increased political reliance and economic investment in the military to assist with solving societal problems.</p>
<p>This can undermine attempts at finding more constructive approaches at conflict resolution. </p>
<h2>Achilles’ heel</h2>
<p>The army will inevitably be called in again to support the police. Whether the soldiers can provide this support given their <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-south-africas-neglected-military-faces-mission-impossible-133250">limited capacity</a> is the big question. Those deployed are predominantly from the infantry, of which there are only 14 battalions, not all of which can deploy internally. Then there are the commitments to peacekeeping operations and the border, and now to Mozambique. </p>
<p>In its present form, the military cannot adequately respond to the threats facing the country internally and externally, due to the way it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-mulls-future-of-its-military-to-make-it-fit-for-purpose-146423">structured, funded and trained</a>. The military is structured for <a href="https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-sociology/chapter/war-and-terrorism/">conventional warfare</a>. This requires expensive equipment and training and does not allow sufficient flexibility to perform the functions it actually does.</p>
<p>South Africa needs a military that is more capable of responding to all the challenges facing the country. These include <a href="https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/DCAF_BG_15_Gendarmeries%20and%20constabulary-type%20police_0.pdf">a mix of military and policing functions</a>. This would mean restructuring the military to be able to put more boots on the ground. What is needed is more infantry troops, trained and equipped for the tasks they are required to do. This is less costly than preparing for conventional warfare, and using the army in collateral roles as it does now.</p>
<p>These changes would ensure that it could meet roles like peacekeeping, border control, support for the police and countering terrorism more effectively. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-mulls-future-of-its-military-to-make-it-fit-for-purpose-146423">South Africa mulls future of its military to make it fit-for-purpose</a>
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<p>Beyond this is the need to address the current <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-14-south-africas-tipping-point-how-the-intelligence-community-failed-the-country/">inefficiencies in the state security cluster</a>. Clearly there is a lack of visionary leadership, accountability and oversight, to enable these sectors to function more effectively.</p>
<p>The lack of <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/unrestsa-ministers-cele-and-dlodlo-at-odds-over-intelligence-report-20210720">effective intelligence</a> has meant that both the military and police were unable to put preemptive defensive measures in place to tackle the recent violence and looting, which has left <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/22/south-africa-unrest-death-toll-jumps-to-more-than-300">more than 330 people dead</a>.</p>
<h2>Comprehensive approach</h2>
<p>A more comprehensive approach to security is required. As indicated by soldier-scholar Laetitia Olivier in relation to gang violence, what is needed is a coordinated and comprehensive plan to <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-soldiers-wont-end-gang-violence-a-co-ordinated-plan-might-120775">address the twin challenges of security and economic development</a>. </p>
<p>Security and economic development are intertwined; the <a href="https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/%EF%BF%BCthe-security-development-nexus-and-the-imperative-of-peacebuilding-with-special-reference-to-the-african-context/">one cannot be achieved without the other</a>. To date, the government has failed on both accounts, which has led to the current crisis.</p>
<p>What is needed is a clear national security framework to repurpose the military in terms of its most likely <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-africas-security-sector-is-in-crisis-reform-must-start-now">future roles, missions and goals</a>. These are the roles which the military is currently performing, but it doesn’t have the force design and structure best suited for the tasks.</p>
<p>Tough decisions have to be made in terms of personnel, rejuvenation and equipping the military for its future roles and functions, given the current security threats facing the citizens of South Africa. This does not imply more investment in defence, but better use of the resources available.</p>
<p>More than ever before, decisive leadership is needed from politicians, military leadership and civil society to march the South African National Defence Force in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lindy Heinecken does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The army may help create a more stable and secure environment in the short term, but this is unlikely to result in sustainable and lasting peace.Lindy Heinecken, Chair of the Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1519122020-12-18T00:06:45Z2020-12-18T00:06:45ZOpen data shows lightning, not arson, was the likely cause of most Victorian bushfires last summer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375681/original/file-20201217-23-x2y286.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4920%2C3260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tracy Nearmy/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As last summer’s horrific bushfires raged, so too did debate about what caused them. Despite the prolonged drought and ever worsening climate change, some people sought to blame the fires largely on arson. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-15/is-arson-mostly-to-blame-for-the-bushfire-crisis/11865724">Federal Coalition MPs</a> were among those pushing the arsonist claim. And on Twitter, a fierce <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/fires-misinformation-being-spread-through-social-media/11846434">hashtag war</a> broke out: “#ClimateEmergency” vs “#ArsonEmergency”. </p>
<p>Fire authorities <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022">rejected</a> the arson claims, saying most fires were thought to be caused by lightning.</p>
<p>We dug into open data resources to learn more about the causes of last summer’s bushfires in Victoria, and further test the arson claim. <a href="https://github.com/TengMCing/bushfire-conversation">Our analysis</a> suggests 82% of the fires can be attributed to lightning, 14% to accidents and 1% to burning off. Only 4% can be attributed to arson.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lightning in the sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375687/original/file-20201217-21-11r8xyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lightning, not arson, caused most Victorian bushfires last summer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we did</h2>
<p>We started with hotspots data taken from the Himawari-8 satellite, which shows heat source locations over time and space, in almost real time. We omitted hotspots unlikely to be bushfires, and used a type of data mining called “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10462-019-09736-1">spatiotemporal clustering</a>” – where time dimension is introduced to geographic data – to estimate ignition time and location.</p>
<p>We supplemented this with data from other sources: temperature, moisture, rainfall, wind, sun exposure, fuel load, as well as distance to camp sites, roads and Country Fire Authority (CFA) stations. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-bots-and-arson-claims-australia-flung-in-the-global-disinformation-spotlight-129556">Bushfires, bots and arson claims: Australia flung in the global disinformation spotlight</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Victoria’s Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) holds historical data on bushfire ignition from 2000 to the 2018-19 summer. The forensic research required to determine fire cause is laborious, and remotely sensed data from satellites may be useful and more immediate. </p>
<p>By training our model on the historical data, we can more immediately predict causes of last summer’s fires detected from satellite data. (Note: even though we were analysing events in the past, we use the term “predict” because authorities have not released official data.)</p>
<p>DELWP’s data attributes 41% of fires to lightning, 17% to arson, 34% to accidents and 7% to hazard reduction or back burning which escaped containment lines (which our analysis refers to as burning off).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374356/original/file-20201211-14-15tlwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Causes of fires from 2000-2019. Lightning is most common cause. The number of fires is increasing, and this is mostly due to accidents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Own work</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To make predictions for the 2019-20 bushfires, we needed an accurate model for causes in the historical data. We trained the model to predict one of four causes – lightning, accident, arson, burning off – using a machine learning algorithm. </p>
<p>The model performed well on the historical data: 75% overall accuracy, 90% accurate on lightning, 78% for accidents, and 54% for arson (which was mostly confused with accident, as would make sense).</p>
<p>The most important contributors to distinguishing between lightning and arson (or accident) ignition were distance to CFA stations, roads and camp sites, and average wind speed. </p>
<p>As might be expected, smaller distances to CFA stations, roads and camp sites, and higher than average winds, meant the fire was most likely the result of arson or accident. In the case of longer distances, where bush would have been largely inaccessible to the public, lightning was predicted to be the cause. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374358/original/file-20201211-15-1u87nv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spatial distribution of causes of fires from 2000-2019, and predictions for 2019-2020 season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Own work</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Our model predicted that 82% of Victoria’s fires in the summer of 2019-2020 were due to lightning. Most fires were located in densely vegetated areas inaccessible by road – similar to the historical locations. (The percentage is double that in the historical data, though, probably because the satellite hotspot data can see fire ignitions in locations inaccessible to fire experts).</p>
<p>All fires in February 2020 were predicted to be due to lightning. Accident and arson were commonly predicted causes in March, and early in the season. Reassuringly, ignition due to burning off was predicted primarily in October 2019, prior to the fire restrictions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374360/original/file-20201211-19-1mgoqlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spatio-temporal distribution of cause predictions for 2019-2020 season. Reassuringly, fires due to burning off primarily occurred in October, prior to fire restrictions. February fires were all predicted to be due to lightning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Own work</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Quicker fire ignition information</h2>
<p>Our analysis used open-data and open-source software, and could be applied to fires elsewhere in Australia. </p>
<p>This analysis shows how we can quickly predict causes of bushfires, using satellite data combined with other information. It could reduce the work of fire forensics teams, and provide more complete fire ignition data in future.</p>
<p>The code used for the analysis can be found <a href="https://github.com/TengMCing/bushfire-conversation">here</a>. Explore the historical fire data, predictions for 2019-2020 fires, and a fire risk map for Victoria using <a href="https://ebsmonash.shinyapps.io/VICfire/">this app</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This analysis is based on thesis research by Monash University Honours student Weihao Li. She was supervised by the author, and former Principal Inventive Scientist at AT&T Labs Research, Emily Dodwell. The Australian Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers supported Emily’s travel to Australia to start this project. The full analysis is available <a href="https://github.com/TengMCing/bushfire-conversation">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://bushfires2020.netlify.app"><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1103/Explore.gif?1594552012" width="100%"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dianne Cook receives funding from the Australian Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers. </span></em></p>The method, using satellite data and other information, could reduce the work of fire forensics teams after bushfires.Dianne Cook, Professor of Business Analytics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1300082020-01-30T19:10:02Z2020-01-30T19:10:02ZWe have the vaccine for climate disinformation – let’s use it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312395/original/file-20200129-93023-1ing9ol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C8%2C5447%2C3604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exposing people to likely disinformation campaigns about bushfire causes will help inoculate them.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">JASON O'BRIEN/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s recent bushfire crisis will be remembered for many things – not least, the tragic loss of life, property and landscape. But one other factor made it remarkable: the deluge of disinformation spread by climate deniers. </p>
<p>As climate change worsens – and with it, the bushfire risk – it’s well worth considering how to protect the public against disinformation campaigns in future fire seasons. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211">Scientists hate to say 'I told you so'. But Australia, you were warned</a>
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<p>So how do we persuade people not to be fooled? One promising answer lies in a branch of psychology called “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4746429/">inoculation theory</a>”. The logic is analogous to the way a medical vaccine works: you can prevent a virus spreading by giving lots of people a small dose.</p>
<p>In the case of bushfire disinformation, this means exposing, ahead of time, the myths most likely to be perpetrated by sceptics.</p>
<h2>Bushfire bunkum</h2>
<p>Disinformation can take many forms, including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378016300577?via%3Dihub">cherry-picking or distorting data</a>, questioning of the scientific consensus by <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/68/4/281/4644513">presenting fake experts</a>, and <a href="http://www.ofcomswindlecomplaint.net/Misreprestn_Views/EFCViews.htm">outright fabrication</a>.</p>
<p>On the issue of bushfires in Australia, there is little scientific doubt <a href="https://sciencebrief.org/briefs/wildfires">that human-caused climate change is increasing their magnitude and frequency</a>. But spurious claims on social media and elsewhere of late sought to muddy the waters: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>bots and trolls <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-bots-and-arson-claims-australia-flung-in-the-global-disinformation-spotlight-129556">disseminated false arson claims</a> which downplayed the impact of climate change on the bushfires</p></li>
<li><p>NewsCorp reported <a href="https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/bushfires-firebugs-fuelling-crisis-asarson-arresttollhits183/news-story/52536dc9ca9bb87b7c76d36ed1acf53f?__twitter_impression=true">more than 180 arsonists</a> had been arrested “in the past few months”. The figure was a gross exaggeration and distorted the real numbers</p></li>
<li><p>The misleading arson claim went viral after Donald Trump Jr, the president’s son, <a href="https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1214565369697845249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1214565369697845249&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.motherjones.com%2Fenvironment%2F2020%2F01%2Fsurprise-surprise-don-jr-just-told-an-outrageous-lie-about-australias-wildfires%2F">tweeted it</a>. A UK government minister, Heather Wheeler, also repeated the false claim <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2020-01-09/debates/C0EB1D8B-1DAE-42E3-837F-0DCC0B9E8F35/AustralianBushfires">in the House of Commons</a> </p></li>
<li><p>NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro, among others, <a href="https://www.2gb.com/we-dont-do-enough-deputy-premier-admits-governments-failed-bushfire-prevention/">wrongly suggested</a> a lack of hazard reduction burning – the fault of the Greens – had caused the fires</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/unhappy-new-year-but-fires-arent-end-of-the-world/news-story/2ef3423d389d2ef6be3bbbbbe47e9151">Conservative commentators claimed</a> the 2019-20 bushfires were no worse than those of the past.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Where will it go next?</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/fire-weather-centre/bushfire-weather/index.shtml">Climate science</a> clearly indicates Australia faces <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">more dangerous fire weather conditions in the future</a>. Despite this, organised climate denial will inevitably continue.</p>
<p><a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175799%20">Research</a> has <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/gch2.201600008">repeatedly shown</a> that if the public knows, ahead of time, what disinformation they are likely to encounter and why it is wrong, they are less likely to accept it as true.</p>
<p>This inoculation involves two elements: an explicit warning of an impending
attempt to misinform, and a refutation of the anticipated disinformation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/merchants-of-misinformation-are-all-over-the-internet-but-the-real-problem-lies-with-us-123177">Merchants of misinformation are all over the internet. But the real problem lies with us</a>
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<p>For example, research has shown that if people were told how the tobacco industry used fake experts to mislead the public about the health risks of smoking, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0175799">they were less likely to be misled by similar strategies used to deny climate change</a>. </p>
<p>It is therefore important to anticipate the next stage of disinformation about the causes of bushfire disasters. One likely strategy will be to confuse the public by exploiting the role of natural climate variability.</p>
<p>This tactic has been used before. When natural variability slowed global warming in the early 2000s, some falsely claimed that <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.html">global warming “had stopped”</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, the warming never stopped – <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep16784">an unexceptional natural fluctuation</a> merely slowed the process, which subsequently resumed. </p>
<p>Natural climate variability may bring the occasional mild fire season in future. So lets arm ourselves with the facts to combat the inevitable attempts to mislead.</p>
<h2>Here are the facts</h2>
<p>The link between human-caused climate change and extreme weather conditions is well established. But natural variability, such as <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=enso">El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean</a> may at times overshadow global warming for a few years.</p>
<p>The below video illustrates this. We used historical data from Adelaide to project the expected incidence of extreme heatwaves for the rest of the century, assuming a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps">continued warming trend of 0.3°C per decade</a>. </p>
<p>The top panel shows the distribution of all 365 daily maximum temperatures for a year, with the annual average represented by the vertical red line. As the years tick over, this distribution is moving up slowly; the red line increasingly diverges from the average temperature observed before the climate started changing (the vertical black line).</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6Ew1x_6dVBA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The bottom panel shows the expected incidence of extreme heatwaves for each year until 2100. Each vertical line represents an intense heatwave (five consecutive days in excess of 35°C or three days in excess of 40°C). Each heatwave amplifies the fire danger in that year.</p>
<p>The analysis in the video clarifies several important aspects of climate change: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>the number and frequency of extreme heatwaves will increase as the climate continues to warm</p></li>
<li><p>for the next few decades at least, years with heatwaves may be followed by one or more years without one</p></li>
<li><p>the respite will only be brief because the inexorable global warming trend makes extreme fire conditions more and more inevitable.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>When it comes to monster bushfire seasons, the link to climate change is undeniable. This season’s inferno is a sign of worse to come – even if it doesn’t happen every year.</p>
<p>Educating the public on climate science, and the tactics used by disinformers, increases the chance that “alternative facts” do not gain traction.</p>
<p>Hopefully, this will banish disinformation to the background of public debate, paving the way for meaningful policy solutions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before. But they're ignoring a few key facts</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Volkswagen Foundation, and the ESRC (via CREST).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hunter has received funding from the Department of Climate Change and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and was previously employed by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC based at the University of Tasmania. He is a member of Climate Tasmania, an expert body set up to replace the Tasmanian Climate Action Council, which was disbanded by the Tasmanian government in 2014.</span></em></p>The best way to inoculate the public against climate disinformation campaigns is to tell them what’s coming.Stephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolJohn Hunter, University Associate, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1295562020-01-10T05:06:26Z2020-01-10T05:06:26ZBushfires, bots and arson claims: Australia flung in the global disinformation spotlight<p>In the first week of 2020, hashtag #ArsonEmergency became the focal point of a new online narrative surrounding the bushfire crisis. </p>
<p>The message: the cause is arson, not climate change.</p>
<p>Police and bushfire services (and some <a href="https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1215034651489820673">journalists</a>) have contradicted this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/police-contradict-claims-spread-online-exaggerating-arsons-role-in-australian-bushfires">claim</a>.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/twitter-bots-and-trolls-promote-conspiracy-theories-about-australian-bushfires/">studied</a> about 300 Twitter accounts driving the #ArsonEmergency hashtag to identify inauthentic behaviour. We found many accounts using #ArsonEmergency were behaving “suspiciously”, compared to those using #AustraliaFire and #BushfireAustralia. </p>
<p>Accounts peddling #ArsonEmergency carried out activity similar to what we’ve witnessed in past disinformation campaigns, such as the coordinated behaviour of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/18/world/europe/russia-troll-factory.html">Russian trolls during the 2016 US presidential election</a>. </p>
<h2>Bots, trolls and trollbots</h2>
<p>The most effective disinformation campaigns use bot and troll accounts to infiltrate genuine political discussion, and shift it towards a different “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02235-x">master narrative</a>”.</p>
<p>Bots and trolls have been a thorn in the side of fruitful political debate since Twitter’s early days. They mimic genuine opinions, akin to what a concerned citizen might display, with a goal of persuading others and gaining attention. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2018.1526238">Bots</a> are usually automated (acting without constant human oversight) and perform simple functions, such as retweeting or repeatedly pushing one type of content. </p>
<p>Troll accounts are controlled by humans. They try to stir controversy, hinder healthy debate and simulate fake grassroots movements. They aim to persuade, deceive and cause conflict.</p>
<p>We’ve observed both troll and bot accounts spouting disinformation regarding the bushfires on Twitter. We were able to distinguish these accounts as being inauthentic for two reasons. </p>
<p>First, we used sophisticated software tools including <a href="https://github.com/mkearney/tweetbotornot">tweetbotornot</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hbe2.115">Botometer</a>, and <a href="https://botsentinel.com/">Bot Sentinel</a>. </p>
<p>There are various definitions for the word “bot” or “troll”. Bot Sentinel says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Propaganda bots are pieces of code that utilize Twitter API to automatically follow, tweet, or retweet other accounts bolstering a political agenda. Propaganda bots are designed to be polarizing and often promote content intended to be deceptive… Trollbot is a classification we created to describe human controlled accounts who exhibit troll-like behavior. </p>
<p>Some of these accounts frequently retweet known propaganda and fake news accounts, and they engage in repetitive bot-like activity. Other trollbot accounts target and harass specific Twitter accounts as part of a coordinated harassment campaign. Ideology, political affiliation, religious beliefs, and geographic location are not factors when determining the classification of a Twitter account.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These machine learning tools compared the behaviour of known bots and trolls with the accounts tweeting the hashtags #ArsonEmergency, #AustraliaFire, and #BushfireAustralia. From this, they provided a “score” for each account suggesting how likely it was to be a bot or troll account. </p>
<p>We also manually analysed the Twitter activity of suspicious accounts and the characteristics of their profiles, to validate the origins of #ArsonEmergency, as well as the potential motivations of the accounts spreading the hashtag.</p>
<h2>Who to blame?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, we don’t know who is behind these accounts, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369118X.2019.1637447">as we can only access trace data such as tweet text and basic account information</a>. </p>
<p>This graph shows how many times #ArsonEmergency was tweeted between December 31 last year and January 8 this year:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309369/original/file-20200109-80153-7kubgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the vertical axis is the number of tweets over time which featured #ArsonEmergency. On January 7, there were 4726 tweets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Previous bot and troll campaigns have been thought to be the work of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42001-019-00051-x">foreign interference, such as Russian trolls</a>, or <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-08/topham-guerins-boomer-meme-industrial-complex/11682116?pfmredir=sm&sf223191298=1">PR firms hired to distract and manipulate voters</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/world/australia/fires-murdoch-disinformation.html">The New York Times has also</a> reported on perceptions that media magnate Rupert Murdoch is influencing Australia’s bushfire debate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-bureau-says-hottest-driest-year-on-record-led-to-extreme-bushfire-season-129447">Weather bureau says hottest, driest year on record led to extreme bushfire season</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Weeding-out inauthentic behaviour</h2>
<p>In late November, some Twitter accounts began using #ArsonEmergency to counter <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/not-normal-climate-change-bushfire-web/">evidence</a> that climate change is linked to the severity of the bushfire crisis.</p>
<p>Below is one of the earliest examples of an attempt to replace #ClimateEmergency with #ArsonEmergency. The accounts tried to get #ArsonEmergency trending to drown out dialogue acknowledging the link between climate change and bushfires.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309228/original/file-20200109-80144-ino2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We suspect the origins of the #ArsonEmergency debacle can be traced back to a few accounts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The hashtag was only tweeted a few times in 2019, but gained traction this year in a sustained effort by about 300 accounts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/twitter-bots-and-trolls-promote-conspiracy-theories-about-australian-bushfires/">A much larger portion of bot and troll-like accounts</a> pushed #ArsonEmergency, than they did #AustraliaFire and #BushfireAustralia. </p>
<p>The narrative was then adopted by genuine accounts who furthered its spread. </p>
<p>On multiple occasions, we noticed suspicious accounts countering expert opinions while using the #ArsonEmergency hashtag.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309229/original/file-20200109-80132-nbxowa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The inauthentic accounts engaged with genuine users in an effort to persuade them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bad publicity</h2>
<p>Since media coverage has shone light on the disinformation campaign, #ArsonEmergency has gained even more prominence, but in a different light. </p>
<p>Some journalists are acknowledging the role of disinformation bushfire crisis – and countering narrative the Australia has an arson emergency. However, the campaign does indicate Australia has a climate denial problem. </p>
<p>What’s clear to me is that Australia has been propelled into the global disinformation battlefield. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu-129338">Watching our politicians fumble through the bushfire crisis, I'm overwhelmed by déjà vu</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Keep your eyes peeled</h2>
<p>It’s difficult to debunk disinformation, as it often contains a grain of truth. In many cases, it leverages people’s previously held beliefs and biases. </p>
<p>Humans are particularly vulnerable to disinformation in times of emergency, or when addressing contentious issues like climate change.</p>
<p>Online users, especially journalists, need to stay on their toes. </p>
<p>The accounts we come across on social media may not represent genuine citizens and their concerns. A trending hashtag may be trying to mislead the public.</p>
<p>Right now, it’s more important than ever for us to prioritise factual news from reliable sources – and identify and combat disinformation. The Earth’s future could depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tobias R. Keller receives funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>We found about 300 suspicious Twitter accounts, which we suspect included a high proportion of bots and trolls pushing the #ArsonEmergency narrative.Timothy Graham, Senior Lecturer, Queensland University of TechnologyTobias R. Keller, Visiting Postdoc, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1269412019-11-18T05:04:52Z2019-11-18T05:04:52ZHumans light 85% of bushfires, and we do virtually nothing to stop it<p>It’s hard to comprehend why someone would deliberately light a bushfire. Yet this behaviour regularly occurs in Australia and other countries. We would go a long way to preventing bushfires if we better understood this troubling phenomenon.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/11/2946">Experts estimate</a> about <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2010/2010/33-chapter9-chapter.pdf">85% of bushfires</a> are <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/FINAL_ARC_SCEP_Fire_season_preparedness_7_July_2016.pdf">caused by humans</a>. The word “bushfires” in this context refers to any fire where vegetation is involved.</p>
<p>A person may accidentally or carelessly start a fire, such as leaving a campfire unattended or using machinery which creates sparks. Or a person could maliciously light a fire. </p>
<p>This criminal behaviour is <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/11/2946">not widely recognised or understood</a> by the public, fire authorities or researchers. This means opportunities to prevent bushfires are generally being missed and resources devoted to tackling the cause are far from commensurate with the devastating consequences.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302090/original/file-20191118-66917-ydd196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2013 fire at Wallan, Victoria, was thought to be deliberately lit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MARK DADSWELL/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Profile of an arsonist</h2>
<p><a href="https://aic.gov.au/publications/tbp/tbp027">Research has shown</a> about 8% of officially recorded vegetation fires were attributed to malicious lighting, and another 22% as suspicious. However, about 40% of officially recorded vegetation fires did not have an assigned cause. When unassigned fires were investigated by fire investigators, the <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2010/06/apo-nid21608-1354551.pdf">majority were found</a> to be maliciously lit. </p>
<p>But official fires are just the tip of the iceberg: the actual number of bushfires in Australia is thought to be <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.150241">about five times</a> that recorded. Virtually none of these unrecorded fires are investigated.</p>
<p>Young men comprise the largest group of people who maliciously light fires. <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2010/06/apo-nid21608-1354551.pdf">These youth are usually troubled</a>, likely to have absent fathers and little home supervision. They are likely to have experienced child abuse and neglect and associated with an antisocial peer group. Lighting fires <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2017-35523-001">may give a feeling of excitement</a>, defiance and power, or it may be an expression of displaced anger. Some offenders have an intellectual disability.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022">A surprising answer to a hot question: controlled burns often fail to slow a bushfire</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Offenders may make no attempt to extinguish the fire, and give little consideration to the consequences. Some may have no feelings of remorse or fear of punishment. Others may never have intended to create such wide devastation.</p>
<p><a href="https://research.bond.edu.au/en/publications/the-psychology-of-arson-a-practical-guide-to-understanding-and-ma">Older males</a> who light malicious fires also have a history of social and educational disadvantage, poor family functioning in childhood, low self-esteem, and often a pathological interest in fire. However the older the person gets, the less likely they are to light fires. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302092/original/file-20191118-66932-1uw9kmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Convicted Black Saturday arsonist Brendan James Sokaluk arriving at the Supreme Court in Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So why don’t we talk about arson?</h2>
<p>During last week’s east-coast bushfire crisis, a handful of news reports covered people lighting fires. They include <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/14/nsw-and-queensland-fires-fourth-person-confirmed-dead-in-bushfires-near-kempsey">a teenager who allegedly lit a Queensland bushfire</a> that razed 14 homes, and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-charged-after-allegedly-starting-fire-with-fireworks-20191115-p53au0.html">a man charged with</a> starting a Sydney fire by letting off fireworks.</p>
<p>Media attention on a fire’s cause is generally scant and the public rarely hears much beyond initial charges being laid. This is in stark contrast to blanket news coverage of the consequences of bushfires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-when-the-firies-call-him-out-on-climate-change-scott-morrison-should-listen-127049">Grattan on Friday: When the firies call him out on climate change, Scott Morrison should listen</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A staggeringly low apprehension and conviction rate for offenders - <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2010/06/apo-nid21608-1354551.pdf">less than 1%</a> - is a further barrier to public awareness of the problem. Conviction <a href="https://www.sentencingcouncil.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/227906/Arson_and_Deliberately_Lit_Fires_Final_Report_No_1.pdf">rarely</a> leads to a substantial punishment. </p>
<p>Fire brigades in most states offer a limited education course for some children who light fires, usually led by volunteers. But there are few targeted treatment programs for those who light bushfires.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302094/original/file-20191118-66979-138f5qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Firefighters near Sydney in November 2019 conducting controlled burning - a common fire mitigation method.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jeremy Piper/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rethinking the bushfire problem</h2>
<p>Rather than tackling the cause of the problem, the major response to bushfire in Australia is mitigation. This largely involves one blunt approach: hazard reduction burns to reduce bushfire fuel loads. This is an increasingly difficult task as climate change makes weather conditions more unsuitable for controlled burns.</p>
<p>This business-as-usual approach has <a href="http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/2/150241">not halted the upward trajectory</a> of bushfire ignitions.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/12-simple-ways-you-can-reduce-bushfire-risk-to-older-homes-122712">12 simple ways you can reduce bushfire risk to older homes</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>A much greater focus on prevention would require a significant rethinking of the bushfire problem. This would include collaboration between government, business, non-government organisations, communities and others. </p>
<p>Victoria’s Gippsland Arson Prevention Program provides a promising model. Through public education, media engagement and other means, it informs communities on how to help prevent arson. The committee includes Victoria Police, government and fire authorities and local power generators.</p>
<p>In one example of an on-the-ground response, local authorities organised the removal of dumped cars, which are commonly seen by bored and troubled youth as an invitation to start a fire.</p>
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<p>Arson prevention also includes addressing long-term problems such as youth disadvantage and unemployment, especially in rural-urban fringe areas where <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/black-saturday-urban-sprawl-and-climate-change-remain-key-dangers">most human-lit fires occur</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263327276_Environmental_criminology_and_the_potential_for_reducing_opportunities_for_bushfire_arson">Shorter-term approaches</a> include providing support and treatment to at-risk youth, and situational crime prevention such as good lighting and cameras in places vulnerable to fire lighting.</p>
<p>We must open up a society-wide discussion of bushfire prevention, which includes listening to local communities about what they value and what can be done about the problem. As climate change worsens – and bushfires along with it – a radical rethink is required.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The caption on the lead image of this article has been amended to say that an estimated 85% of fires are lit by humans, both deliberately and accidentally. A definition of the term “bushfire” has also been added, for clarity.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Stanley has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Australia devotes countless resources to fighting bushfires, but precious little to examining the main cause - humans.Janet Stanley, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1005002018-07-27T10:08:45Z2018-07-27T10:08:45ZGreek fires: the predatory political economy behind a recurring human disaster<p>After wildfires struck coastal resorts and suburbs around Athens, the images of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/greek-wildfires-dry-winter-and-strong-winds-led-to-tinderbox-conditions">destruction</a> show the trail of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greece-wildfires-live-updates-athens-latest-death-toll-news-mati-rafina-a8461271.html">devastation and death</a> left behind. The world is understandably shocked. But fires – albeit smaller ones and with fewer deaths than on this occasion – are quite regular and seen as an unpleasant yet predictable summer occurrence in Greece. </p>
<p>These fires have generally been treated with resignation, and ultimately one has now led to huge disaster. The following offers a glimpse into a very Greek tragedy.</p>
<p>Greece, despite being a European Union member state and a developed economy, exhibits many of the institutional deficiencies and cultural traits found in less developed nations. A large, centrally-controlled state can be a source of secure employment (as in Greece), yet is often grossly inefficient. </p>
<p>State power, wrongly exercised, can inhibit legitimate business, and its regulatory functions have little effect in societies where illegality and a shadow economy are prevalent. Look at post-communist countries that suffer from a legacy of a <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTABCDEWASHINGTON1999/Resources/aslund.pdf">large yet weak state</a>. Greece may never have been part of the Soviet bloc, but <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/ejlr16&div=44&id=&page=">successive weak governments</a>, coping badly with the country’s underdevelopment, have created a series of distortions that are unseen in Western Europe, but common in the East.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfires-are-raging-in-the-mediterranean-what-can-we-learn-81121">Wildfires are raging in the Mediterranean. What can we learn?</a>
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<p>Does Greece’s problematic historical development contribute to this particular type of disaster? The short answer is yes, it does. The explanation for how areas of Greece burst into flame each year is not simply a question of poor ecological management, building standards, fire prevention and fire-fighting capabilities. This explanation rests with <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/2007/08/29/fighting-greek-fire">the law and its enforcement</a>. </p>
<h2>Burn, then build?</h2>
<p>In Greece, there is a lot of unused land classed as agricultural or forest. Greece has a complex, antiquated and incomplete legal land title system, where efforts to create a land registry (or <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-greece-cadastre/insight-typically-greek-delayed-land-register-is-never-ending-epic-idUSL8N12E1Z520151018">cadastre</a>) have been ongoing since the early 2000s and are still not even close to completion. Add in the <a href="https://www.transparency.org/country/GRC">pervasive corruption</a> of land registry offices, forestry commissions and relevant state administration, and what you get is an opportunity for real estate development.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229265/original/file-20180725-194146-vzxgqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">After the fire one can rebuild, but what changes are required to prevent it recurring?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pantelis Saitas/EPA-EFE</span></span>
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<p>In Western Europe, it is generally not possible to build without first obtaining appropriate permits. Those who try to do so without permission are frequently discovered, stopped, fined, and even forced to alter or <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3584722/Flattened-Farmer-faced-jail-building-illegal-castle-hiding-giant-hay-bales-finally-knocks-nine-year-battle.html">demolish what they’ve built</a>. The severe legal and financial implications of building illegally makes this only a very limited problem.</p>
<p>In Greece, however, you could clear up a bit of brushland or cut down a section of forest, put down the foundation for a building, connect utilities by bribing local officials, and then wait for the amnesty for illegal buildings that tends to come around periodically, usually close to a general election. The latest legalisation effort has been lauded as a <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/221156/article/ekathimerini/business/legalization-reaps-19-bln-euros">revenue raising exercise</a>, regardless of consequences in other areas such as – coincidentally – ecological management and fire security. And so enterprising sorts take advantage of fire to the forest, removing the barrier so that they can build homes, without care for regulations, in inaccessible areas, on land they often do not own. The forest burns, people die, developers build, and votes are won.</p>
<p>On what grounds could the political class justify turning a blind eye to such illegality? The usual excuses are that illegal builds are family homes constructed by the poor living on the city fringes – the unavoidable consequence of antiquated zoning laws, and so the fault of the state (of previous governments, naturally). An amnesty, the argument goes, legalises existing situations that the state has tolerated for years, that it would be inequitable not to recognise. Never mind that many of these builds aren’t favelas, but villas with pools. </p>
<p>We do not know, yet, whether this new fire is <a href="https://www.thenationalherald.com/208583/arson-seen-in-deadly-greek-wildfire-again-military-joins-patrol/">the result of arson or accidental</a>. But we do know that it fits a pattern, one that needs to be recognised and broken. In 2007, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/7-detained-for-arson-in-greek-fires/">fires hit the Peloponnese</a>, for example, claimed a high death toll, and led to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6965078.stm">a manhunt for alleged arsonists</a>. </p>
<p>Whatever the spark, the source of Greece’s terrible tragedy, and many others like it, isn’t an act of God. It is a result of a dishonest political class shopping for votes, of builders making a living, of hands getting greased. It is institutionalised tragedy, one that binds a predatory state to an accomplice population. </p>
<p>This is not to belittle the tragedy of lost lives, or blame the victims for their deaths. But if Greeks are looking for someone to blame they shouldn’t look to incomplete fire prevention measures, faulty equipment, sluggish responses, or even (as is commonly claimed by the media and the government) wreckers or foreign spies. They should look in the mirror. The Greek state has tolerated, condoned and rewarded the illegality that makes these disasters recurring. Greek society has watched with disinterest. It is time this stopped.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ioannis Glinavos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The fires tearing through the Athens region are not an act of God, but a direct result of corruption and systematic disregard for the law.Ioannis Glinavos, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/806282017-07-06T13:22:14Z2017-07-06T13:22:14ZLungu tries to have his cake and eat it: a state of emergency in all but name<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177094/original/file-20170706-11940-1k5qbf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Zambia's President Edgar Lungu is tightening his grip on power even further.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Abir Sultan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For 24 hours rumours swirled through Zambia that President Edgar Lungu <a href="https://www.zambiawatchdog.com/lungu-likely-to-sign-state-of-emergency-tonight/">planned to initiate a state of emergency</a>. When he finally took to the airwaves to <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-05-zambia">make a special announcement</a> he did something different. Invoking <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/07/05/article-31-declaration-relating-threatened-emergency/">Article 31</a> of the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/natlex/docs/ELECTRONIC/26620/90492/F735047973/ZMB26620.pdf">constitution</a> – Declaration Relating to Threatened Emergency – rather than Article 30 – Declaration of Public Emergency – the president requested extra powers to prevent a state of emergency rather than actually declaring one.</p>
<p>In practice, the difference between the two is slim. If, as expected, parliament approves his request he will have been given considerably more powers. He will be able to restrict movement of assembly, implement a curfew, curtail parliament, ban publications, order detention without trial, and search any property without a search warrant. As respected Zambian commentator Sishuwa Sishuwa has put it, this is effectively a “State of Threatened Emergency”.</p>
<p>The president’s decision to go with Article 31 is significant for a number of reasons. The first is that it allows the Zambian government to ward off criticism by being able to argue that it has <em>not</em> <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/07/06/president-lungu-not-declared-state-emergency/">declared a state of emergency</a>. This is important because the Patriotic Front regime is in the process of negotiating a much needed <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/05/02/imf-bail-will-not-bring-untold-misery-zambia-mutati/">economic bail out with the International Monetary Fund</a>.</p>
<p>Presenting its authoritarian backsliding in a more palatable way is therefore extremely valuable. By opting for Article 31, Lungu hopes to have his cake and eat it. He will have secured powers to consolidate his political control while generating “plausible deniability” to whether or not he has fatally undermined Zambian democracy.</p>
<p>To some extent this strategy has been successful. Initial Facebook and twitter <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nic.cheeseman/posts/1301668219959781?pnref=story">conversations</a> about how the measure could be reversed quickly gave way to confusion and arguments about what the president had actually declared, and what it meant.</p>
<h2>Why did Lungu do it?</h2>
<p>The official reason behind the president’s request for extra powers is a spate of civil disobedience and arson that has seen a number of markets burnt down. The immediate trigger was a fire that destroyed the country’s largest, the <a href="http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00053416.html">City Market in Lusaka</a>.</p>
<p>But the president’s claim to simply be acting in the interests of law and order has been fiercely contested by critics. Instead, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-politics-idUSKBN17Q0W8">opposition leaders allege</a> that the government has been either taking advantage of natural fires or deliberately starting them to justify the extension of authoritarian control. </p>
<p>This claim is lent credibility by the fact that the investigation of the City Market fire had only just begun when the decision to expand the president’s powers was taken. Rumours circulating in Zambia suggest that in fact it resulted from an <a href="http://zambia24.com/news/2017/07/04/city-market-fire-resulted-from-an-electrical-fault-onlookers/">electrical fault rather than sabotage</a>.</p>
<p>If this is true, it raises the question of what lies behind Lungu’s increasingly aggressive strategy. Three overlapping explanations are circulating, all of which have a degree of plausibility.</p>
<p>The first is that it’s simply another way of intimidating the opposition. In addition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-talk-about-zambia-as-it-falls-from-grace-under-president-lungu-77520">arresting United Party for National Development leader Hakainde Hichilema</a>, popularly known as HH, the government has tried various ways to clamp down on opposition to its rule. This has included the <a href="https://theconversation.com/zambia-slides-towards-authoritarianism-as-imf-props-up-government-79533">suspension of 48 opposition MPs</a>. And fears that Hichilema might be acquitted by the High Court, and subsequently released, are said to explain the timing of the president’s statement.</p>
<p>The second is that the president faces serious challenges within the Patriotic Front, where some question his suitability to lead. In addition to rumours that he is in <a href="http://www.zambianobserver.com/edgar-lungu-gets-more-sick-stops-talking/">bad health</a>, this makes him potentially more <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-05-zambia">vulnerable to internal opposition</a> than to the challenge of the main opposition party. On this interpretation, Lungu’s appropriation of extra powers is designed as a warning to his rivals within the party to back off.</p>
<p>Finally, some see his decision as being motivated by his desire to secure a <a href="http://democracyinafrica.org/zambia-president-lungu-third-term/">third term in office</a> when his current term ends in 2021. The legality of this is questionable, and the move is fiercely opposed by opposition parties.</p>
<p>On their own, none of these claims fully explains why Lungu has opted for such a controversial move when IMF negotiations are at a delicate stage. In reality it may be that the president’s actions are explained by some combination of all three – or indeed, an alternative explanation that has not yet come to light.</p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>There’s <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-05-zambia%20%22%22">confusion</a> about exactly where Lungu intends to go from here. In a presidential address in the last hour his stance appeared to harden, rejecting international criticism and <a href="https://www.themastonline.com/2017/07/06/imf-can-go-lungu/">stating that:</a> “If they [IMF] think I am going astray, let them go.” </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-05-zambia">Nicole Beardsworth</a>, a senior researcher at the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, Lungu’s declaration will give him <a href="http://www.parliament.gov.zm/sites/default/files/documents/acts/Preservation%20of%20Public%20Security%20Act.pdf">additional powers</a>. Moreover, if his statutory instrument is approved by Parliament, it can be extended for a period of months.</p>
<p>This would seem to give the president all the time and powers he would need to further cow internal and external opposition, although it’s still possible that he will seek to apply a full state of emergency.</p>
<p>What may prevent this from happening is concern within the cabinet that such a move would be unnecessary and counterproductive. Not all leaders of the Patriotic Front agree with the direction that Lungu is taking his country in. Push back in a cabinet meeting is said to have prevented an even more forceful declaration.</p>
<p>Given the president’s new found capacity to control the media and intimidate the opposition, these internal constraints may prove to be Zambia’s best hope of avoiding dictatorship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nic Cheeseman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Zambia’s president is securing powers to consolidate his political control while generating ‘plausible deniability’ to whether or not he has fatally undermined democracy.Nic Cheeseman, Professor of Democracy, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/691532016-11-24T21:31:22Z2016-11-24T21:31:22ZA burning question: why are Kenyan students setting fire to their schools?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147341/original/image-20161124-15333-1mzz9xu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dormitories are commonly targeted in school burnings</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elizabeth Cooper</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few years, students have set fire to <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2016/07/matiangi-says-special-team-probe-school-arson-cases/">hundreds</a> of secondary schools across Kenya. The tally includes <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/List-of-schools-hit-by-unrest/1056-3318282-14epye8/index.html">more than 120</a> cases in 2016 alone. Why students are setting fire to their schools has been the topic of repeated investigations by police, education officials, government inquiries and journalists. Indeed, explanation – or rather blame – for this trend has been levelled in every conceivable direction. </p>
<p>Kenya’s Education Minister and other members of the government have <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/counties/Kisii/Cartels-fighting-Matiangi-behind-arson-in-schools/1183286-3325876-vth7dpz/index.html">suggested</a> that the fires have been masterminded and supported by “cartels” in retaliation against the government’s crackdown on lucrative exam-cheating schemes. This is a claim <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000210327/students-defy-president-uhuru-kenyatta-s-warning-set-institutions-on-fire">repeated</a> by the President. The government has also fingered <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2016/07/matiangi-wants-parents-charged-arson-vandalism-schools/">ethnic and clan hostilities</a> as motivating attacks on schools headed by principals who are identified with different communities. </p>
<p>In these ways, the government’s explanations treat students as unwitting pawns in political disputes that are actually not really about them or their schooling. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, many public policy analysts and members of the public have blamed students’ “<a href="http://pjpub.org/perd/perd_147.pdf">indiscipline</a>”. This lack of discipline has been <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/lifestyle/weekend/Education-ministry-to-blame-for-wave-of-arson-in-schools/-/1220/2823442/-/9xxcqaz/-/index.html%E2%80%8B">attributed</a> to lackadaisical parenting as well as the ban on teachers’ use of corporal punishment. </p>
<p>Again, students are understood to be relatively passive receptacles of adults’ management. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.academia.edu/8797764/Students_Arson_and_Protest_Politics_in_Kenya_School_Fires_as_Political_Action%20_">My research</a> with students and in schools across Kenya indicates that most of these explanations miss the mark because they depreciate, rather than appreciate, students’ capacities to engage in purposeful political action.</p>
<h2>Rational political tactics</h2>
<p>In the media, students’ actions are cast as “mindless hooliganism”. But students can rationally explain why they use arson in their schools. Students have learned that setting fire to their schools is an effective tactic for winning acknowledgement of their dissatisfaction. </p>
<p>Their use of arson represents an astute reading of the limited options available to citizens to practice meaningful dialogue and peaceful dissent related to the conditions of public services, such as education. As many analysts have noted, limited options for meaningful citizen engagement in Kenya’s policy arena has given rise to the popularity of a <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201204190425.html">“strike culture”</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, students easily identify other examples from Kenyan political struggles that demonstrate how violence and destruction have proven effective means for citizens to win public and political recognition of their grievances. </p>
<p>As one student explained, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>What I see is that in Kenyan society, the bigger the impact, the quicker the reaction. The government sees these people are serious and they can think “if we don’t meet their grievances now, we might see worse”.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Schooling complaints</h2>
<p>Students target their schools because their grievances tend to be school-based. The most commonly cited complaints among students include principals’ overly authoritarian, “highhanded” and unaccountable styles of management, poor quality school diets and inadequate learning resources, including teaching. Many of these criticisms reflect suspicions about how school budgets are being allocated.</p>
<p>The overwhelming majority of school arson cases have occurred in boarding schools across the country, including boys’ schools, girls’ schools, and mixed schools. Schools that perform well and those that tend to perform more poorly on national examinations have all been affected. </p>
<p>Why are boarding schools such common targets? Some of this is explained by prevalence: nearly <a href="http://www.kicd.ac.ke/images/ICT/2014BasicEducationStatisticalBooklet.pdf">80%</a> of Kenya’s secondary schools are boarding schools. However, students explain that boarding schools are targeted because life for them in these schools can be “like prison”. </p>
<p>The boarding school, like prison, can be considered a “<a href="http://is.muni.cz/el/1423/podzim2009/SOC139/um/soc139_16_Goffman.pdf">total institution</a>”. This idea, theorised by sociologist Erving Goffman, refers to a situation where all aspects of life occur in the same place, with the same cohort and according to a stringent schedule. This regime is enforced by a single authority according to an overarching “rational” plan. In practice, boarding school life is often experienced by students as excessively rigid and authoritarian. </p>
<p>The majority of school fires are set in students’ dormitories, thereby also destroying students’ own personal belongings. The rationale given by students is that the destruction of their dorms means that they will be sent home and given some respite from their intensive boarding school lifestyles. </p>
<h2>Understanding adolescents and risk-taking</h2>
<p>Interviews with students as well as reviews of court case proceedings indicate that it can be difficult for students to imagine the long-lasting detrimental consequences that might arise from setting fires in their schools. </p>
<p>In part, this is due to students holding cynical views of the ineptitude of the Kenyan enforcement and judicial systems. Students note, for example, that many prosecutions fail due to deficient criminal investigations, including unlawful interrogation practices. </p>
<p>Additionally, some students who played active roles in setting fires later claimed that they had been unable to anticipate the scale and scope of the damage the fires would cause to their schools as well as to their own futures. </p>
<p>These kinds of experiences jibe with emergent understandings from neuroscience concerning the unique developmental stage of adolescents’ brains. We now know that the brain is still developing during adolescence. The prefrontal cortex of the brain – which is implicated in impulse control – may not be fully developed and functional until the early 20s or later. Consequently, neurodevelopmental researchers <a href="http://jar.sagepub.com/content/25/1/4.full.pdf+html">theorise</a> that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>adolescents may have less inhibition, be more prone to take risks, more impulsive, and less likely to consider the distal consequences of their actions than adults. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Recognising these potential differences does not cancel out the immediate deliberateness of students’ acts to affect change in ways that they understand to be effective. But it does complicate the question of how to respond to students’ palpable frustrations. </p>
<h2>Alternative possible futures</h2>
<p>All of this indicates that the government’s intention to respond to the trend of school-based arson with more discipline and punishment of students is misguided in two crucial and connected ways. </p>
<p>First, this approach only addresses symptoms exhibited in rebellious acts. At the root of students’ dissatisfaction and desperation is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-kenya-wants-to-overhaul-its-entire-education-system-62840">gruelling education</a> coupled with often unaccountable authority, both of which are acutely experienced through the “total institution” of the boarding school. </p>
<p>Second, threats of more punishment misjudge the unique conditions of adolescence in terms of neuromaturation, and specifically how this can affect risk-taking and consideration of long-term consequences. More threats and interventions of punishment are unlikely to affect these predispositions. </p>
<p>Kenyan students have learned that arson works as a tactic to express dissatisfaction and opposition. To change this lesson, the government needs to open peaceful and effective channels for young people’s perspectives to be taken into account, both in education and government. Otherwise, we can likely expect more fires next year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Acts of arson by Kenyan high school students have been characterised as ‘mindless hooliganism’. But research shows that students are actually engaging in purposeful, reasoned political action.Elizabeth Cooper, Assistant Professor of International Studies, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/321612014-12-04T19:34:03Z2014-12-04T19:34:03ZBurn after reading: a short history of arson<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66138/original/image-20141203-17724-iyqr3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Arson has evolved from a wrongful individual act into an effective means of collective violence.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Murtada al Mousawy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We’ve been burning things for hundreds of thousands of years. </p>
<p>Australian Aboriginals practised <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2013/s3767527.htm">fire-stick farming</a> to regenerate the soil and drive out animals for hunting. Yet manmade fires not only enable our use of the earth: burning also defines human relationships. And, for centuries, we’ve used fire maliciously to destroy what doesn’t belong to us.</p>
<p>Wilfully setting fire to property, with the intent to cause damage, is a crime – arson. </p>
<p>Under British law, in the early 19th century, setting fire to domestic and commercial premises, and “any stack of corn, grain, pulse, straw, hay or wood”, was punishable by death. Stack-burning was removed from the list of capital crimes in 1837, but arson remained a serious offence that could incur a life sentence or transportation.</p>
<p>Late-19th and early-20th century societies were less concerned with property damage than they were about crimes against the person. </p>
<p>Industrialisation and urbanisation – people living together in close quarters in cities – raised new fears about murder and assault. But while punishments for arson have become less severe over time, fire-starting still captures the public imagination and challenges the authorities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66129/original/image-20141203-17750-7zobdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rioter walks through a burning barricade on Smithdown Road in Liverpool, north west England on 10 August 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/ Peter Byrne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14452097">2011 England riots</a>, the actions of a small group of arsonists quickly turned local disorder into a matter of national security. Images of London high streets ablaze evoked scenes from <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/events/the_blitz">the Blitz</a> on the capital during the second world war.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66140/original/image-20141203-17747-nroufz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The undamaged St Paul’s Cathedral surrounded by smoke and bombed-out buildings in December 1940.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A panel reported on the England riots. Indeed we often study arsonists’ behaviour, in the hope of preventing it. Psychiatrists and criminologists say people start fires for excitement, profit, to take revenge, as cover-up for other crimes and because of mental illness.</p>
<p>By examining arson’s history, we add another motivating factor to this list. Arson has evolved, since the 18th century, from a wrongful individual act into an effective means of collective violence, too.</p>
<p>From 1750, the privatisation of common land in England limited peasants’ access to resources such as firewood and game. In defiance of the law, the rural poor burned the newly “enclosed” forests and deer parks. </p>
<p>From the 1790s, in Britain and around the world, arson became an increasingly frequent <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1931-0846.1999.tb00223.x/abstract">weapon of rural protest</a>. Burnings peaked during poor harvests and in areas of high unemployment.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66133/original/image-20141203-17730-rhyz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cars and buildings burn into the evening in Ferguson, US, on November 24 2014, after news emerged that a grand jury had decided not to indict the police officer who shot local teen Michael Brown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Newzulu/Shedrick Kelley</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Arson is very accessible. Fire setting requires little effort and few tools. The invention of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/ahistoryoftheworld/objects/hQR9oN5LTeCLcuKfPDMJ9A">Lucifer match</a>, in 1829, was timed perfectly for the “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/familyhistory/bloodlines/workinglife.shtml?entry=swing_riots&theme=workinglife">Swing riots</a>” of 1830. During that violent year, fire engulfed eastern English counties in which labourers were paid low wages.</p>
<p>Arsonists’ techniques have changed little in modern times. In rural Ireland in the 1820s, peasant gangs vented their frustration at high food prices and unfair taxation (tithes) by burning the property of rich farmers and authority figures.</p>
<p>Using kettles, the so-called “<a href="http://uwpress.wisc.edu/books/4613.htm">Rockites</a>” carried smouldering lumps of coal or turf across fields to the homes of their enemies, placing these basic incendiary devices in the thatched roofs common to rural Ireland. </p>
<p>A century later, during the <a href="http://historyhub.ie/the-war-of-independence-the-irish-revolution-lecture-7">War of Independence</a> (1919–21), between Irish nationalists and British armed forces, guerrilla fighters borrowed old techniques, throwing paraffin-soaked sods of earth at police barracks.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66145/original/image-20141203-15614-xfuf8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Birth of the Irish Republic, painting by Walter Paget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Visible from up to 40 miles away, according to <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Animal-Maiming-Poaching-Anglia-1815-1870/dp/0956482716">one English study</a>, arson also creates a frightening public spectacle. Having learnt at a young age that fire can hurt us and destroy our home, arson scares people into compliance with communal demands.</p>
<p>Incendiarism (willfully destroying property by fire) compels lawmakers to take notice of tenants’ rights, say, or intimidates perceived outsiders into leaving the area. During the <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/twentieth-century-british-history/everyday-violence-irish-civil-war">Irish Civil War</a> (1922–23), republican paramilitaries used targeted house and crop burning to protest Ireland’s independence settlement with Britain. </p>
<p>Arson forced land redistribution and drove out minorities, namely Protestants and those loyal to the old regime.</p>
<p>Arson is often integral to religious and interracial conflict. Here the symbolism of arson is important. Fire not only destroys property, but can also render unrecognisable signs of life, “purifying” a community of its enemy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/66142/original/image-20141203-15617-1r3c1aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Egyptian protesters on February 1, 2013, threw petrol bombs and fireworks at the presidential palace in Cairo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Mosaab Elshamy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In America’s East St Louis, in 1917, house burning played a key role in protests by white mobs against mass migration of southern blacks into wartime factory jobs. Arson also served genocidal aims during the war in the former Yugoslavia, 1992-95.</p>
<p>Usages of arson naturally have changed over time. Attitudes towards criminality evolve. Social, economic and political grievances find expression through new media. 21st century protestors don’t merely seek access to government. Civil disobedience is performed in front of news photographers and online publics.</p>
<p>In 2006, Parisian youths set cars alight in protest against French labour laws. Sectarian rioters wield homemade <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-petrol-bombs-incendiary-and-uncertain-history-31850">petrol bombs</a> in Northern Ireland’s ongoing <a href="http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/">Troubles</a>.</p>
<p>These street activists aren’t conventional arsonists. The primary purpose of a Molotov cocktail is to set the target ablaze, rather than wholly destroy it. </p>
<p>But modern-day incendiarism clearly draws on a long tradition of insurrection through malicious damage. From 18th century rural England to 1980s Greece via <a href="http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2209514?uid=3737536&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21104731799101">Reconstruction-era southern America</a> and colonial Africa, incendiarism as protest has been a recurring, global phenomenon.</p>
<p><br>
<em>The Conversation is currently running a series looking at <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/history-of-violence">the history and nature of violence</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gemma Clark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ve been burning things for hundreds of thousands of years. Australian Aboriginals practised fire-stick farming to regenerate the soil and drive out animals for hunting. Yet manmade fires not only enable…Gemma Clark, Postdoctoral research fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/193232013-10-18T04:52:23Z2013-10-18T04:52:23ZWe know what starts fires; are we brave enough to prevent them?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/33238/original/84g6ky4t-1382069387.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We could prevent scenes like this. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Yet again we are seeing tragedy unfold in NSW, where more than 90 fires are currently burning. Yet, as with many issues of profound importance, as a society we seem unable to make the links between conditions and events in order to take preventative action.</p>
<p>Part of the problem is that prevention isn’t sexy or flamboyant. There are no pictures of “grateful people” who are recovering, or villains to blame. </p>
<p>Prevention success is very hard to measure. How do we know that the tragic event or fire was prevented by the quiet, background work that was undertaken which provided support and treatment for a troubled person? </p>
<p>Accepting that this type of intervention work is effective is hard in a context which requires “measurement”, “indicators”, KPIs and evidence for outcomes.</p>
<p>I’ll try and outline the events which need to be connected.</p>
<h2>Climate change</h2>
<p>Six years ago we were <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html">warned by the IPCC</a> that one consequence of climate change is an increase in extreme events, including fires. Bushfires will be likely to occur more often, be more severe and harder to extinguish. </p>
<p>One consequence of our failure to adequately address the problem of climate change is that we will experience severe bushfires – and we are. </p>
<p>The Abbott Government is planning to stop the price on carbon. While this scheme had shortcomings, it sent a message to the Australian public, had minimum impact on cost of living (less than 0.7% increase in the cost of living) and it compensated (perhaps over-compensated many) those who could least afford price rises. </p>
<p>The form of policy to replace a price on carbon is still very uncertain. Thus, unless substantial action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Australians will have to put up with tragic bushfires.</p>
<h2>Arson</h2>
<p>Of the up to 60,000 bushfires which occur in Australia annually, it <a href="http://www.monash.edu/research/sustainability-institute/assets/documents/bushfire-arson/advancing-bushfire-arson_report.pdf">is thought</a> that close to half of these are deliberately lit. </p>
<p>Arson is used here in a broad sense – about 30% are known or suspected to be deliberately lit; about 20% are accidental fires, often arising from reckless behaviour; and a large 42% have an unknown cause. </p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/A/1/8/%7BA18209AF-C67E-4E5E-9FCD-D5413DCA4686%7Dti236.pdf">recorded incidents of arson</a> have grown 2000% since 1974, doubling every eight years since 1964. </p>
<p>A recent estimate of the cost of arson sits at about <a href="http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2011/2511costsofcrimesmyth.pdf">$1.1 billion annually</a> for Victoria. This is an under-estimation as externalities, such as the social and emotional cost and loss of ecosystem services, are not factored into this amount.</p>
<p>The reader will note that I’ve used the words “about”, “under-estimation” and “thought”, as well as rather dated information. This is no accident. Our knowledge about acts of arson and of how to prevent them occurring is extremely poor. There are very few resources given to better understanding - and preventing - this problem in Australia. </p>
<p>Similarly, while there are a few education programs for juveniles who light fires, there are few places where juveniles or adults can get treatment or intervention to prevent this fire-lighting behaviour continuing.</p>
<h2>Land use</h2>
<p>Australia’s population is rapidly increasing, mostly around the major urban centres, particularly Sydney and Melbourne. These cities are pushing into the surrounding bushland areas, commonly the outer fringes where the cost of housing is the lowest, but the infrastructure and service provision – transport, education, employment – are the poorest. </p>
<p>Often young people are languishing in these areas, many of whom don’t work or go to school. In July 2012, almost one-third of 15 to 19 year olds were unemployed in Victoria. This is the very age when there is a high propensity to light fire – 40% of arson offenders <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/D/5/1/%7BD51C2101-2D8E-4617-B4C2-2B30BFA820BD%7Dtandi348.pdf">are adolescents</a>.</p>
<p>Link all these factors together and we have a problem. We have been warned about the increase in severe fires which will be associated with climate change. Arson occurs many times in Australia and we know very little about the patterns and characteristics of arson as few resources are given to researching this issue. Australia’s population is growing and it could be assumed that the number of people with a propensity to commit arson is growing at the same rate. This increasing population is moving into areas where there is a high risk of bushfire</p>
<p>In Australia, we have a choice about what we value, what we want to protect, and where we spend resources. It is vital that we understand that these choices are ours to make. </p>
<p>It is clear to me that we need to make choices around bushfire and arson. Do we want to increase the prevention response to reduce the occurrence of arson? Or are we prepared accept that bushfires will occur, with potential loss of life, property, livelihoods and the environment and society being severely disrupted and possibly highly traumatised? </p>
<p>Is the cost of these fires now so high as to warrant a determined effort to reduce the occurrence? Are we prepared to put in place policy that is of sufficient magnitude to adequately reduce greenhouse gases, resources to better understand and thereby put in preventative measures? </p>
<p>This includes a much broader canvas of approaches than the current heavy reliance on cool-burning and clearing as the dominating response to the prevention of bushfires. It will be a complex and costly response, but it is what the scale of the problem requires.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Stanley receives funding from RACV Insurance and the Commissioner for Emergency Services, Victorian Government</span></em></p>Yet again we are seeing tragedy unfold in NSW, where more than 90 fires are currently burning. Yet, as with many issues of profound importance, as a society we seem unable to make the links between conditions…Janet Stanley, Chief Research Officer, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.