tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/astrology-200/articlesAstrology – The Conversation2023-06-07T04:01:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2043672023-06-07T04:01:52Z2023-06-07T04:01:52ZSeven metals, ringed with four magical inscriptions: what other secrets does the ‘Alchemical Hand Bell’ hold?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528517/original/file-20230526-5088-uyhxuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hans de Bull, Alchemical Hand Bell of Rudolf II, ca. 1600</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.khm.at/en/objectdb/detail/91976/">Kunsthistorisches Museum Wien</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scholars are baffled by a mysterious object from Emperor Rudolf II’s collection: a hand bell, made from an alloy of seven metals and said to have been used to summon spirits, <a href="https://ecp.ep.liu.se/index.php/histocrypt/article/view/690/596">contains an enigmatic cipher on the inside</a>. </p>
<p>The Habsburg emperor Rudolf II (1552–1612) went down in history as one of the greatest patrons of the arts and sciences. </p>
<p>During his 36-year reign, he amassed unimaginable treasures and riches behind the walls of Prague Castle. Only a chosen few were granted access to his legendary <a href="https://www.habsburger.net/en/chapter/kunst-und-wunderkammer-emperor-rudolf-ii"><em>Kunstkammer</em></a>, or cabinet of curiosities, whose contents are spread all over the world today. </p>
<p>The emperor had a penchant for all things occult. Magic, alchemy, astrology and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabbalah">kabbalah</a> were among his favourite pastimes. </p>
<p>Alchemists and magicians from near and far – such as the English magus <a href="https://theconversation.com/deciphering-the-philosophers-stone-how-we-cracked-a-400-year-old-alchemical-cipher-167900">John Dee</a> and his scryer Edward Kelly, the Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe, and the Polish alchemist Michael Sendivogius – were drawn to Prague around 1600.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523953/original/file-20230503-16-i6gs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hans von Aachen (1552–1615), Emperor Rudolf II, circa 1606/1608.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kunsthistorisches Museum</span></span>
</figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-astronomer-and-the-witch-how-kepler-saved-his-mother-from-the-stake-49332">The astronomer and the witch – how Kepler saved his mother from the stake</a>
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<h2>The Alchemical Hand Bell</h2>
<p>Around 1600, the Prague goldsmith Hans de Bull created two curious objects for the imperial collection. The so-called <a href="https://www.khm.at/en/objectdb/detail/91976/">Alchemical Hand Bell</a> once belonged to a pair. The whereabouts of its counterpart are unknown. </p>
<p>From <a href="http://documenta.rudolphina.com/Regesten/A1612-10-00-02669.xml">a letter by the artist</a>, we know he cast both bells from an alloy of the seven metals associated with the heavenly bodies depicted on the mantle: gold (sun), silver (moon), copper (Venus), iron (Mars), lead (Saturn), tin (Jupiter) and mercury (Mercury). </p>
<p>Such a sevenfold alloy had been described by the Swiss physician and alchemist Paracelsus as “Electrum”. </p>
<p>As part of a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/42384930/The_Alchemical_Handbell_of_Rudolf_II_A_Touchstone_of_Art_and_Alchemy">complicated ritual</a>, the chime of an Electrum bell could grant its owner wisdom and power. Emperor Rudolf II admired Paracelsian philosophy, and De Bull’s bell was a welcome addition to the imperial Kunstkammer. </p>
<h2>Secrets in the script</h2>
<p>Altogether, four different scripts can be discerned on this object. </p>
<p>In the trapezoidal fields above the deities’ heads are letters resembling <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syriac_language">Syriac</a>, the language of ancient Syria.</p>
<p>The letters on the bell’s handle, above the planetary symbols, are reminiscent of Arabic. </p>
<p>The iron clapper is adorned with Hebrew letters which are also hardly legible. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528438/original/file-20230525-17-4scuw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Interior of the Alchemical Hand Bell of Rudolf II.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.khm.at/en/objectdb/detail/91976/">Kunsthistorisches Museum Wien</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<p>Surprisingly, the Greek inscription on the interior of the mantle can perfectly be transcribed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>θιδαγΗ θιβ κιδιγ ιιαθδεγι ιαεθιθ δαιΗ κδειθειζ Ηθιγκδεγι δαΗι ιΗεθδθιζ θιδαγ Ηθιβ κγκ βκειΗ ζειΗιει ζιδγΗειγ θιβ ιγαιβειγ ζιδιθειΗ καιθειζιΗ κιγδ δειΗ ιΗιδιγιΗ κιγδ δειΗ Ηεθιαθζειγ ζεθιΗθιΗ</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, every attempt so far to make sense of these 163 letters has failed: the “words”, composed of ten different Greek letters, are hardly pronounceable. </p>
<p>It is tempting to suspect the spiralling text contains some kind of invocation, maybe to summon the supernatural beings described by Paracelsus.</p>
<p>Is this another example of nonsense script that so often occurs on <a href="https://www.khm.at/objektdb/detail/59146">magical objects</a> based on the principle of script for script’s sake? Or does the text contain a hidden meaning that still needs to be deciphered? </p>
<h2>First attempts to decode the bell’s secrets</h2>
<p>In order to try to understand the letters’ meaning, we looked at different kinds of ciphers used around the same time period. </p>
<p>One possibility is a so-called “polyphonic” cipher. This is one where each “cipher” symbol – here the ten Greek letters – corresponds to one or possibly several letters in the original language.</p>
<p>This is in contrast to a “homophonic” cipher, such as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-12/zodiac-killer-code-cracked-by-australian-mathematician/12977342">those created</a> by the Zodiac serial killer in the 1960s, where each letter in the original text is replaced by one of several different cipher symbols. </p>
<p>Historically, there have been a few attempts at using polyphonic ciphers, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01611194.2020.1755915">Papal ciphers of around the same time period</a>. These ciphers used the digits 0 to 9 with dots above the numerals to distinguish different letters and groups of letters. </p>
<p>But these kinds of ciphers can be very difficult to solve where the exact enciphering method is not known. Here, we do not even know the underlying language. </p>
<p>Some plausible possibilities are Latin, German or Greek. Latin was the <em><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lingua_francas">lingua franca</a></em> of scholarly writing in Europe and any Westernised territory of the time, while German and Czech were spoken at Rudolf’s court.</p>
<p>We tried automated methods for solving these ciphers with various languages. But the shortness of the passage meant the usual techniques were unlikely to help.</p>
<p>The ultimate question is: is there actually an understandable message present? </p>
<p>The more general question for researchers is how much “ciphertext” do we need to extract the underlying message? We can only deduce this for ciphers we already know of. </p>
<p>If we could understand the writing, we could gain new insight into the meaning of this bell and cipher techniques used at the time, and perhaps uncover secrets from Emperor Rudolf’s fabled court. But for now, the mystery prevails.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/deciphering-the-philosophers-stone-how-we-cracked-a-400-year-old-alchemical-cipher-167900">Deciphering the Philosophers' Stone: how we cracked a 400-year-old alchemical cipher</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Habsburg emperor Rudolf II owned a spirit-summoning alchemical hand bell. We want to decipher its cryptic Greek inscriptions.Richard Bean, Research Fellow, School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, The University of QueenslandCorinna Gannon, Research assistant, Goethe University Frankfurt am MainSarah Lang, PostDoc in Digital Humanities at Centre of Information Modelling (University of Graz), University of GrazLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050322023-05-08T02:51:49Z2023-05-08T02:51:49ZPeople are complaining about Mercury in retrograde. But what does it actually mean?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524808/original/file-20230508-186646-o6xtme.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=296%2C2%2C1177%2C809&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.solarsystemscope.com/">SolarSystemScope.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun, whipping around <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/index.html">our star every 88 days compared to Earth’s 365.25 days</a>. Mercury will also be the first planet destroyed when the Sun expands on its way to becoming <a href="https://www.space.com/22471-red-giant-stars.html">a red giant in about 5 billion years</a>.</p>
<p>So it seems a bit rough that we <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/health-fitness/mercury-retrograde-2023">blame Mercury for all our problems</a> three to four times a year when it’s in retrograde. But what does it mean when we say Mercury is “in retrograde”?</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="An image of Mercury - a partially obscured dark grey sphere with lots of texture created by many craters on its surface, on a black background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524561/original/file-20230505-23-7hoqy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Image of Mercury from MESSENGER’s Wide Angle Camera.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Carnegie</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A matter of orbits</h2>
<p>Retrograde motion means a planet is moving in the opposite direction to normal around the Sun. However, the planets never actually change direction. What we are talking about is <em>apparent</em> retrograde motion, when to us on Earth it looks like a planet is moving across the sky in the opposite direction to its usual movement.</p>
<p>Because Mercury is closest to the Sun and has the fastest orbit, it appears to move backwards in the sky more often than any other planet.</p>
<p>Let’s use my dog Astro to help explain what’s happening when we see a planet in retrograde. Astro is a whippet, or a mini-greyhound, and he has a need for speed. If I take Astro for a run on my local cricket oval, he does super-speed laps on the inside while I run much more slowly around the outside.</p>
<p>If we’re both going anti-clockwise around the cricket pitch, when Astro is on the opposite side of the oval to me it looks like he’s going left while I’m jogging right. But when he gets to the same side of the oval as me, it suddenly looks like he’s running right instead of left (retrograde).</p>
<p>This happens because Astro is going much faster than me, and is inside my “orbit” of the oval.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524717/original/file-20230506-17-6xss98.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagram of me (Laura) and Astro running around the oval, from my point of view. At the top we can see the top-down view of the oval. At the bottom we can see the side-on view. From my point of view it looks like Astro is running right-to-left when he’s on the opposite side of the oval to me, but it looks like he’s running left-to-right when he’s on the same side of the oval to me.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laura Driessen (author provided)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Because Mercury’s orbit is inside Earth’s orbit, seeing it from our planet is like me watching Astro run.</p>
<p>But Mercury isn’t the only planet to do this. Venus also orbits inside our orbit of the Sun, zipping around <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/index.html">once every 224.7 days</a>. This means Venus is in retrograde twice every three years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Diagram of the concentric rings around the Sun showing the orbits of all the planets (and Pluto)." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524562/original/file-20230505-29-lvevp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagram of the orbits of the planets (and dwarf planet Pluto) in the Solar System. The dwarf planet Ceres orbits between Mars and Jupiter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Space Place</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The other retrograde</h2>
<p>It works the other way around, too. The planets outside our orbit (Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) also go into retrograde.</p>
<p>To work this out, we need to swap our perspective. Astro is definitely not a deep thinker, but let’s imagine for a moment that he is and think about what he sees as he runs around the oval.</p>
<p>He’s running around the oval and he starts catching me up from behind. At this moment it seems like we’re both going the same direction, to the right. But as he starts to pass me, it seems like I’m going backwards or left (retrograde) while he continues to run forwards to the right.</p>
<p>This is what happens when we look up at the sky and see one of the outer planets in retrograde.</p>
<p>Mars is in retrograde once every two years. The other planets are so far from the Sun and travelling so slowly compared to Earth that it’s almost like they’re standing still. So we see them in retrograde approximately once a year as we whip around the Sun so much faster than they do.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artist's impression of retrograde motion from Astro the whippet's perspective." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524559/original/file-20230505-1338-1zsf5n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagram of me (Laura) and Astro running around the oval, this time from Astro’s perspective. At the top we can see the top-down view of the oval. At the bottom we can see the side-on view. From Astro’s view, it appears that I’m going backwards as he overtakes me.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laura Driessen (author provided)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A well-known illusion</h2>
<p>Retrograde motion bamboozled ancient astronomers since humans started looking up in space, and we only officially figured it out when Copernicus proposed in 1543 that the planets are <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/OrbitsHistory">orbiting the Sun</a> (though he wasn’t the first astronomer <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/Aristarchus_of_Samos/">to propose this heliocentric model</a>).</p>
<p>Before Copernicus, many astronomers thought Earth was the centre of the universe and the planets were spinning around us. Astronomers like <a href="https://blog.oup.com/2017/07/planetary-astronomy-ancient-greece/">Apollonius</a> around 300 BCE saw the planets going backwards, and explained this by adding more circles called epicycles.</p>
<p>So, humans found out retrograde motion was an optical illusion 500 years ago. However, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-astronomy-a-science-but-astrology-is-not-192376">pseudoscientific practice of astrology</a> continues to ascribe a deeper meaning to this illusion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Diagram with coloured lines spanning the dates in 2023 that each planet is in retrograde." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524563/original/file-20230505-23-sq5dua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagram of the dates in 2023 that each planet (and the two dwarf planets Pluto and Ceres) will be in retrograde.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laura Driessen (author provided)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There’s a retrograde most of the time</h2>
<p>If we consider the seven planets other than Earth, at least one planet is in retrograde for 244 days of 2023 – that’s around two-thirds of the year.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A white dog with a brown patch over his eye is wearing a yellow jacket and sitting in from of a dam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524718/original/file-20230506-19-5rex3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Astro the whippet thinking about all the possums he’s going to bark at later.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laura Driessen (author provided)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we include the dwarf planets Pluto and Ceres (and exclude the other seven dwarf planets in the Solar System), at least one planet or dwarf planet is in retrograde for 354 days of 2023, leaving only 11 days without any retrograde motion. </p>
<p>I like to think the biggest impact the planets have on Earth is bringing wonder and joy every time we turn our eyes (and our telescopes) to the night sky. Astro, on the other hand, is happy as long as he gets to run around the oval and bark at possums. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-platypus-to-parsecs-and-millicrab-why-do-astronomers-use-such-weird-units-203061">From platypus to parsecs and milliCrab: why do astronomers use such weird units?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Nicole Driessen is part of MeerTRAP, which is supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 694745).</span></em></p>There’s nothing weird happening with Mercury. In fact, most days of the year there’s at least one planet in retrograde.Laura Nicole Driessen, Postdoctoral researcher in radio astronomy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015982023-03-15T16:54:38Z2023-03-15T16:54:38ZWhat the stars do not have in store for you, according to your horoscope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514680/original/file-20230310-20-wgi7gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C5%2C3479%2C1456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/droste-effect-background-abstract-design-concepts-1945585246">Shutterstock / Paolo Gallo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What is your sign? If you can answer that question, you are one <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-actually-believe-in-astrology-71192">of the 90% of adults who know your zodiac sign</a>. This is no surprise: the media, social networks and digital applications have all recently given a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210205-why-astrology-is-so-popular-now">new push</a> to astrology. </p>
<p>In contrast, in a survey conducted in the United States, <a href="https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/570994/many-americans-don't-know-blood-type">only 57% of respondents</a> knew their blood type. What makes astrology so special?</p>
<h2>Astrology: the study of the stars to read the future</h2>
<p>Astrology is defined as the study of the position and movement of the stars as a means of predicting future events and finding out about people’s character. It originated in Babylon around the year 700-450 BC, when the 12 zodiac signs were established – with their interpretation focused on predicting events in the population. </p>
<p>It was in ancient Greece where predictions were transferred to individuals and were made based on the relative position of the stars at the time of birth. For example, the fact that a person is a Gemini means that, at the time of their birth, the Sun (projected in the sky) was in the position that aligned with the Gemini constellation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The constellations of the zodiac are those in which the Sun is projected, in a straight line, along the Earth’s annual path.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Earth, when revolving around the Sun, makes its way through the different constellations. That path is known as the ecliptic plane. The sun sign, according to astrologers, represents our personality, self-perception, love compatibility, and basic preferences. Thus, studying the position of the celestial bodies can help us choose better friends, suitable love relationships, and make better decisions both professionally and financially.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As the Earth travels around the Sun (blue ellipse), the Sun appears to move through the constellations of the zodiac (black line).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tartila/Shutterstock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three reasons to change your horoscope</h2>
<p>There are at least three reasons why your zodiac sign is most likely not what you think.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The Babylonians observed that <strong>there were 13 different constellations</strong> on the ecliptic plane; however, since they had a 12-month calendar dictated by the phases of the Moon, they decided to keep that value and used 12 constellations to name the zodiacal signs. The Babylonians deliberately left one out: Ophiuchus.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>All the constellations have different lengths</strong>; thus, they are in front of the Sun for variable amounts of time. For example, Leo spans 37 days while Scorpio spans only 7. This leaves many who claim to be Scorpio out of it, among other irregularities.</p></li>
<li><p>Due to the gravitational influence of the Sun and the Moon, the Earth wobbles slightly. Thus, the north pole deviates little by little, producing <strong>the precession effect</strong>. The result is an apparent change in the position of the constellations. Since the zodiac signs were established around 3,000 years ago, they have now moved about a month.</p>
<p>For someone who was born on June 1 three thousand years ago, the Sun would have been in the Gemini constellation. Currently, due to precession, on June 1 the Sun is not in Gemini but instead in the constellation Taurus.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The most famous experiment in astrology: the Naninga Astrotest</h2>
<p>In 1996, <a href="https://skepsis.nl/astrology-test/">an experiment</a> was published in which 44 astrologers tried to match the birth data (date, time, and place) of seven anonymous people with their respective personality questionnaires. </p>
<p>The questionnaires were taken from the Berkeley University Personality Profile, and there were other questions also included suggested by the 44 astrologers. Aspects related to education, family, vocation, hobbies, personality, relationships, health, etc. were covered. </p>
<p>The astrologer who managed to correctly match the seven anonymous people’s birth data with their respective questionnaires would win $2,500. The results were disappointing for astrology: the most skilled astrologer had 3 correct matches out of 7, and half of the participants (22) did not have a single correct answer.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/318419a0">several</a> <a href="http://www.skepticalmedia.com/astrology/Scientific%20Inquiry%20into%20Astrology.pdf">articles</a> that put astrology and its predictive power to the test. Spoiler alert: <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/DEAIAR">astrology fails every time</a>. An astrologer has the same chances of being right about aspects of our future as anyone else who bases their responses on chance.</p>
<p>There are people who decide on their partner based on the zodiac signs. Nevertheless, it seems that love is not dictated by the stars. A <a href="https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/love-not-in-the-stars/">study</a> carried out with 10 million marriages in England and Wales showed that there is no evidence of attraction (or rejection) between the different zodiac signs.</p>
<h2>Why astrology convinces so many</h2>
<p>Although it is well proven that astrology does not get things right, 27% of <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/survey-results/daily/2022/04/22/5ad3f/1">Americans</a> and 23% of the <a href="https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfsoc_0035-2969_2002_num_43_1_5471">French</a> believe in it, while 46% of <a href="https://www.gabinete.mx/images/reportes/2014/cultura/rep_horoscopos_2014.pdf">Mexicans</a> feel that their horoscope is something important in their lives.</p>
<p>Why is that? Astrology is an extremely profitable business. In the United States alone, astrology apps <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/astrology-industry-boomed-during-pandemic-online-entrepreneurs-2020-12?r=MX&IR=T">brought in $40 million</a> for their creators in 2019. This makes astrology be promoted even more online, and more and more people are getting into the market. </p>
<p>But the most interesting thing in all this is that humans are prone to errors and biases related with judgement and reasoning. This means that horoscopes fit into our mental mechanisms. Specifically, they rely on what we know as confirmation bias and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Barnum-Effect">the Barnum effect</a>.</p>
<p>Confirmation bias shows that prior beliefs and expectations can influence the selection, retention and evaluation of evidence; that is, we look for information that supports our ideas and ignore information that contradicts them.</p>
<p>For example, if our horoscope mentions that “it will be a day of strong contrasts” and we have a very calm day, we will simply ignore that prediction. However, if we really do have a day of contrasts, the first thing we will think is, “Of course, the horoscope warned me.”</p>
<p>The Barnum effect is a psychological phenomenon that consists of perceiving general and ambiguous descriptions (applicable to everyone) as if they were highly precise statements (made specifically for us).</p>
<h2>The horoscope of a serial killer</h2>
<p>In 1968, French psychologist Michel Gauquelin published a newspaper ad. In exchange for one’s name, address, date of birth and place of birth, he offered a 10-page personalised horoscope free of charge. A real bargain!</p>
<p>After receiving the horoscope, 94% of those who had sent in their information said they were satisfied with the results, with 90% even stating that their relatives had found the descriptions of their profile to be correct. Where is the catch? They had all received the same text! The horoscope sent out by Michel Gauquelin was that of a serial killer born in France on January 17, 1897.</p>
<p>Horoscopes promise certainty (“our fate is in the stars”). Therefore, it is not surprising that people usually turn to horoscopes in times of great uncertainty. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, searches <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=hor%C3%B3scopo">related to horoscopes</a> had their highest peak in years.</p>
<p>The aim of this article is not for people to stop reading horoscopes, because they can be an excellent source of entertainment and fun. Nonetheless, we must emphasise that there is no connection between the position of the stars and our lives. </p>
<p>And although horoscopes seem harmless fun, we must remember that French President <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-s-destiny-was-shaped-by-de-gaulle-s-personal-astrologer-711465.html">Charles de Gaulle</a>, Queen Elizabeth I of England and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi all had astrologers to help them make decisions during their tenures.</p>
<p>Just remember that Cassius said to Brutus (in Julius Caesar, by William Shakespeare):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.</span></em></p>Many people think their destiny is written on the stars. It is not.Yersain Ely Keller de la Rosa, Maestro en Ciencias Bioquímicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)Kevin Navarrete, Investigador en el laboratorio de Biología Molecular de bacterias patógenas, Instituto de Microbiología, Praga, Czech Academy of SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969192023-01-24T13:22:32Z2023-01-24T13:22:32ZLots of people believe in Bigfoot and other pseudoscience claims – this course examines why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505185/original/file-20230118-22-sxk00c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C1979%2C997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Don't believe the hype about Bigfoot, a flat Earth or ancient aliens.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Collage from Getty Images sources</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of course</h2>
<p>“Psychology of Pseudoscience”</p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>While teaching a course on research methods at the United States Air Force Academy, I concluded that the course needed a bigger emphasis on broad scientific reasoning skills.</p>
<p>So I incorporated material about the difference between science – the <a href="https://sciencecouncil.org/about-science/our-definition-of-science/">systematic process of evidence-based inquiry</a> – and <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo15996988.html">pseudoscience</a>, which is the promotion of unreliable scientific claims as if they are more reliable than other explanations. </p>
<p>I wanted to understand why people promote claims that conflict with science. I jumped at the opportunity to develop this type of course at SUNY Cortland.</p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<p>We look at some of the common scientific reasoning failures that pseudoscience exploits. These include <a href="https://aiptcomics.com/2021/02/01/stormtroopers-science-evidence-anecdotes/">hand-picking anecdotes</a> to support a belief, <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pseudo-science/">developing a set of beliefs</a> that explain every possible outcome, <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/2017/05/vaccines-autism-and-the-promotion-of-irrelevant-research-a-science-pseudosc/">promoting irrelevant research</a>, <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo15996988.html">ignoring contradictory information</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550614567356">believing in unsubstantiated conpiracies</a>.</p>
<p>We particularly highlight <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480">motivated reasoning</a>, the tendency for people to process information in a way that helps them confirm what they already want to believe. For example, someone might accept scientific consensus about cancer treatments but question it with regard to vaccines – even though both are supported by strong scientific evidence and expert consensus. </p>
<p>We also review <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.50.6.1141">group polarization</a>, in which people develop more extreme positions after interacting with similarly minded group members.</p>
<p>Some of the topics we examine include the <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/yes-flat-earthers-really-do-exist/">flat-Earth</a> belief, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/denying-evolution-9780878936595?cc=us&lang=en&">creationism</a>, <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/2002/03/bigfoot-at-50-evaluating-a-half-century-of-bigfoot-evidence/">Bigfoot and other cryptozoology ideas</a>, <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/2022/02/the-great-australian-psychic-prediction-project-pondering-the-published-predictions-of-prominent-psychics/">psychic ability</a>, <a href="https://www.apa.org/pi/lgbt/resources/therapeutic-response.pdf">conversion therapy</a>, <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/vaccines-and-your-child/9780231153072">anti-vaccination</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/318419a0">astrology</a>, <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/2003/01/amityville-the-horror-of-it-all/">ghosts</a> and <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-madhouse-effect/9780231177863">climate change denial</a>.</p>
<p>Students complete two papers to reinforce their knowledge. First, students develop their own bogus scientific claims and a corresponding plan to convince people that their claims are legitimate. Allowing students to invent and promote novel forms of pseudoscience gives them a safe context in which to examine specious scientific arguments.</p>
<p>Second, students review old issues of <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/">Skeptical Inquirer</a>, the leading national magazine about science and critical thinking, to summarize the topics that were being addressed at that time. Students also dive more deeply into a specific topic like unexplained cattle mutilations or the Bermuda Triangle. Then they write a paper based on an <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/2022/12/on-the-origin-of-skeptical-inquirer/">example I recently published</a> in Skeptical Inquirer. I’m hopeful that future column installments will include students’ work.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>The internet has provided pseudoscience communities with the unprecedented ability to promote their false claims.</p>
<p>For instance, flat-Earthers have <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-watched-hundreds-of-flat-earth-videos-to-learn-how-conspiracy-theories-spread-and-what-it-could-mean-for-fighting-disinformation-184589">relied on YouTube</a> to create doubt about Earth as a globe. The Bigfoot Field Researchers Organization uses Facebook to support Bigfoot belief. These platforms take advantage of people’s tendency to believe material posted by their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13527266.2011.620764">friends</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10503-011-9219-6">authoritative-sounding sources</a>.</p>
<p>This course is also relevant now because the consequences of poor scientific reasoning are so significant. People who believe these sorts of false claims risk their own health and that of the planet, by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17430-6">avoiding helpful, safe vaccines</a> or <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-madhouse-effect/9780231177863">useful discussions about the problems presented by climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>It’s important for students to understand that <a href="https://centerforinquiry.org/video/why-were-all-susceptible-to-pseudoscience-craig-foster/">reasonable, intelligent people promote pseudoscience</a>. When people encounter pseudoscience they don’t personally believe, they sometimes conclude that the pseudoscience supporters are unintelligent or mentally unwell. This type of explanation is shortsighted. </p>
<p>Everyday people are drawn into believing pseudoscience because they have limited cognitive resources and they use cognitive strategies, like relying on anecdotes, that can lead to erroneous belief. Human scientific reasoning is particularly flawed when humans really <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44085270">want to reach a particular conclusion</a>.</p>
<p>Belief in pseudoscience also develops out of social interactions. Friends and family members commonly share their reasons for believing in creationism, ghosts, fad diets and so forth. This type of social influence goes into overdrive when people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/13684302211050323">join communities that collectively promote pseudoscience</a>. I have attended Bigfoot and flat-Earth conferences. These conferences create powerful social experiences, because so many friendly people are available to explain that Bigfoot is alive or the Earth is flat, both of which are, clearly, false.</p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>The “Defining Pseudoscience and Science” chapter by Sven Ove Hansson in “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo15996988.html">Philosophy of Pseudoscience: Reconsidering the Demarcation Problem</a>” sets up what I call the psychological puzzle of pseudoscience: How do people convince themselves and others that an unreliable scientific claim is actually reliable?</p>
<p>We also have guest speakers, including philosophy of science scholar <a href="https://massimopigliucci.org/">Massimo Pigliucci</a>, journalist and folklorist <a href="http://benjaminradford.com/">Ben Radford</a>, exposer of psychics <a href="https://skepticalinquirer.org/exclusive/susan-gerbic-back-on-tour/">Susan Gerbic</a>, a local Bigfoot enthusiast, and Janyce Boynton, who discussed <a href="https://www.facilitatedcommunication.org">facilitated communication</a>, a discredited communication technique in which some people physically assist nonverbal people with their communication, for example, by guiding their hands as they type.</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>The course prepares students to identify dubious scientific claims. In so doing, they should <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-018-9513-3">become less vulnerable</a> to being drawn into pseudoscience. The course also enhances familiarity with specific forms of pseudoscience. I expect climate change denial, anti-vaccination and creationism to remain major points of contention in American society for decades. Educated people should understand the discussions that occur around these kind of social problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Foster is affiliated with facilitatedcommunication.org.
Anything else to declare: I am a Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Fellow.</span></em></p>A university course teaches students why people believe false and evidence-starved claims, to show them how to determine what’s accurate and real and what’s neither.Craig A. Foster, Professor and Chair, Department of Psychology, State University of New York CortlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923762022-12-19T13:35:48Z2022-12-19T13:35:48ZWhy is astronomy a science but astrology is not?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499880/original/file-20221208-17038-cv8u59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C10%2C2389%2C1785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Your zodiac sign – like Sagittarius, the archer – might be in the stars, but your future isn't.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/sagittarius-astrological-sign-on-ancient-clock-royalty-free-image/1180618747">scaliger/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Why is astronomy a science, but not astrology? – Katelyn, age 11, Arlington, Texas</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Are you sure astrology isn’t a science? </p>
<p>Both astrology and astronomy are in the business of making predictions. The theories of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/astrology">astrology</a> claim that the positions of the planets and the stars influence who you are and what happens to you: your job, your personality and your romantic partner. Astrologers make these predictions based on the positions of the planets at the time of your birth. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/astronomy">Astronomy</a>, in contrast, makes predictions about such phenomena as the movements of planets and the expansion of galaxies. Astronomers explain their predictions with such properties as masses, distances and gravitational forces.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cTBDU3AAAAAJ&hl=en">philosopher</a> and an <a href="https://anthropology.wustl.edu/people/talia-dan-cohen">anthropologist</a> who study what science means to society, we think it is important to separate the question of whether something is a science from the question of whether it is true or false.</p>
<h2>Astrology makes scientific claims</h2>
<p>Science, in essence, involves making and testing factual claims about the world. Factual claims are true or false descriptions of the world (Joe is 1 meter tall) as opposed to descriptions of how we define things (1 meter is 1,000 milimeters). In this sense, astrologers, like astronomers, make factual claims about the world. To us, that makes astrology sound a lot like a set of scientific beliefs.</p>
<p>For a very long time, until the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26567121">17th or 18th century</a>, astronomy and astrology were <a href="https://en.unesco.org/silkroad/content/did-you-know-influence-astrology-science-astronomy-along-silk-roads">practiced side by side</a>. After all, knowing where the planets were relative to the stars was necessary to make accurate predictions about how their locations influenced human affairs. That’s why astronomers and astrologers populated medical schools and governments, advising people on what the heavens signaled was to come on Earth.</p>
<p>Even famed astronomers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0021828618793218">Galileo</a> and <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/kepler/">Kepler</a> practiced astrology. Any rule that says they are scientists only if they make one set of factual claims but not when they make another set of factual claims divides these thinkers into two halves that aren’t meant to be contradictory. In both cases, they wanted to know how things worked so they could predict how things would go in the future.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ph3HCXtuCQw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">For centuries, astrology was a respected science right alongside astronomy.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Being false vs. being unscientific</h2>
<p>But here’s the rub: When researchers test the predictions astrology makes about people’s lives, those predictions turn out to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/318419a0">no better</a> <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/DEAIAR">than guesswork</a>.</p>
<p>There is currently no broadly accepted evidence that galactic forces are capable of influencing the choices people make. The truck parked on the street exerts more <a href="https://www.physicsclassroom.com/class/circles/Lesson-3/The-Apple,-the-Moon,-and-the-Inverse-Square-Law">gravitational pull</a> on you than Mars does, and the <a href="https://radiojove.gsfc.nasa.gov/">radio waves</a> from your local station far outpower those from Jupiter, for instance.</p>
<p>There is an important difference between being false and being unscientific. Currently, astrological theories are false precisely because they make scientific claims about the world, and those claims turn out to be wrong. Although the predictions astrology makes are false, they are nonetheless a matter of science. That’s how we know they are wrong, after all.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of constellations" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499829/original/file-20221208-13989-yviwsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Image from ‘Astronomy Without a Telescope’ (1869).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/ov6YFR">Internet Archive Book Images/Flickr</a></span>
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<p>Some people believe they find support for astrological predictions in their own personal experience. They read their horoscope and it seems just right: They did “meet someone interesting” or “benefit from listening to a close friend’s advice.” But the predictions are <a href="https://scitechdaily.com/the-barnum-effect-why-horoscopes-are-so-popular/">vague enough</a> that they would often be true even if astrology were utterly bogus. That’s why it can be difficult to figure out how to assess an astrologer’s predictions with precision.</p>
<p>Theories of astronomy, on the other hand, have evolved over the years with advances in technology. They are routinely corrected in response to increasingly precise measurements. For example, Einstein’s <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/andp.19163540702">theory of general relativity</a> got a boost over Newton’s because it predicted the precise migration of Mercury’s closest point to the Sun year after year. If astrology had the same ability to make correct predictions with such precision, it might still be a major focus of scientific attention.</p>
<h2>Why is astrology still popular?</h2>
<p>But then why do so many people find astrology so useful if its predictions are not well founded? Why are astrological signs and horoscopes so popular? </p>
<p>It seems that looking to the sky to make some sense of what’s going on right now and what’s going to happen in the future has appealed to a lot of different people at different times in history all over the world.</p>
<p>When it comes to what’s commonly known as Western astrology, many people find their astrological sign to be a <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-are-horoscopes-still-thing-180957701/">source of meaning</a> in their lives. In fact, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/01/new-age-beliefs-common-among-both-religious-and-nonreligious-americans/">nearly 30% of Americans</a> believe in astrology. It’s one of many tools we have for telling stories about ourselves to make sense of who we are, why we are that way and why experiences that otherwise would feel meaningless and confusing seem to happen to us all the time. In this sense, astrology’s success might be less about prediction and more about what it offers in terms of meaning and interpretation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Silhouette of person looking up at a night sky next to camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499827/original/file-20221208-12502-4yk09u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Throughout history, people have looked to the stars to derive some form of meaning from existence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/silhouette-man-standing-against-star-field-royalty-free-image/956508114?adppopup=true">Christianto Soning/EyeEm via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Among other things, astrology can be a useful prompt for self-reflection. It asks us whether we have traits typical of our astrological sign, and whether those we love have traits the theory suggests they ought to have. Thinking about our traits and relationships with the people around us is generally a good tool for understanding who we are, what we want to be and the meaning of our lives. Perhaps astrology is helpful in this way, independently of whether those traits are fixed by the stars. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
<p><em>And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192376/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Craver receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Talia Dan-Cohen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Astrology and astronomy were once practiced side by side by scientists like Galileo and Kepler. And they’re more similar than you might think.Talia Dan-Cohen, Associate Professor of Sociocultural Anthropology, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisCarl Craver, Professor of Philosophy and Philosophy-Neuroscience-Psychology, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1378952020-05-19T05:28:16Z2020-05-19T05:28:16ZBefore epidemiologists began modelling disease, it was the job of astrologers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335919/original/file-20200519-83393-pbb25a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C16%2C2144%2C3269&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women, representing nature, argue the influence of the zodiac with scholars in this undated 17th century engraving. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wellcomecollection.org/works/ze65gc7m">Wellcome Collection</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The internet is awash with comparisons between life during COVID-19 and life during the Bubonic plague. The two have many similarities, from the spread of misinformation and the tracking of mortality figures, to the ubiquity of the question “when will it end?”</p>
<p>But there are, of course, crucial differences between the two. Today, when looking for information on the incidence, distribution, and likely outcome of the pandemic, we turn to epidemiologists and infectious disease models. During the Bubonic plague, people turned to astrologers.</p>
<p>Exploring the role played by astrologers in past epidemics reminds us that although astrology has been debunked, it was integral to the development of medicine and public health.</p>
<h2>The flu, written in the stars</h2>
<p>Before <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK24649/">germ theory</a>, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Scientific-Revolution">Scientific Revolution</a> and then the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/british-history/enlightenment">Age of Enlightenment</a>, it was common for medical practitioners to use astrological techniques in their everyday practice.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335910/original/file-20200519-83352-5kahon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hans Holbein’s Danse Macabre woodcut (1523-25).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holbein_Danse_Macabre_27.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Compared to the simplistic horoscopes in today’s magazines, premodern astrology was a complex field based on detailed astronomical calculations. Astrologers were respected health authorities who were <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030107789">taught at the finest universities throughout Europe</a>, and hired to treat princes and dukes.</p>
<p>Astrology provided physicians with a naturalistic explanation for the onset and course of disease. They believed the movements of the celestial bodies, in relation to each other and the signs of the Zodiac, governed events on earth. Horoscopes mapped the heavens, allowing physicians to draw conclusions about the onset, severity, and duration of illness.</p>
<p>The impact of astrology on the history of medicine can still be seen today. The term “influenza” was derived from the idea that respiratory disease was a product of the influence of the stars.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/altered-mind-this-morning-hehe-just-blame-the-planets-1235">Altered mind this morning? Hehe, just blame the planets</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Public health and plague</h2>
<p>Astrologers were seen as important authorities for the health of communities as well as individuals. They offered public health advice in annual <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=AppsDAKOW3QC&lpg=PA7&dq=astrology%20almanacs%20and%20plague&pg=PA7#v=onepage&q&f=false">almanacs</a>, which were some of the most widely read literature in the premodern world.</p>
<p>Almanacs provided readers with tables for astrological events for the coming year, as well as advice on farming, political events, and the weather.</p>
<p>The publications were also important disseminators of medical knowledge. They explained basic medical principles and suggested remedies. They made prognostications about national health, using astrology to predict when an influx of venereal disease or plague was likely to arise.</p>
<p>These public health predictions were often based on the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/books/chapters/the-fated-sky.html">astrological theory of conjunctions</a>. According to this theory, when certain planets seem to approach each other in the sky from our perspective on earth, great socio-cultural events are bound to occur.</p>
<p>When Bubonic plague hit France in 1348, the King asked the physicians at the University of Paris to account for its origins. Their answer was that the plague was caused by a <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/class/history13/Readings/Horrox.htm">conjunction of Saturn, Mars, and Jupiter</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-medieval-writers-struggled-to-make-sense-of-the-black-death-134114">How medieval writers struggled to make sense of the Black Death</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Predictions from above</h2>
<p>Astrological accounts of plague remained popular into the 17th century. In this period, astrology was increasingly attacked as superstitious, so some astrologers tried to set their field on a more scientific grounding.</p>
<p>In an effort to make astrology more scientific, the <a href="https://www.sciencesource.com/archive/John-Gadbury--English-Astrologer-SS2551280.html">English astrologer John Gadbury</a> produced one of the earliest epidemiological studies of disease.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/London_s_deliverance_predicted.html?id=LT7WrQEACAAJ&redir_esc=y">London’s Deliverance Predicted</a> (1655), Gadbury claimed his contemporaries couldn’t explain when plagues would arrive, or how long they’d last. </p>
<p>Gadbury proposed that if planets caused plagues, then planets also stopped plagues. Studying astrological events would therefore allow one to predict the course of an epidemic.</p>
<p>He gathered data from the previous four great London plagues (in 1593, 1603, 1625, and 1636), scouring the Bills of Mortality for weekly plague death rates, and compiling <a href="http://tei.it.ox.ac.uk/tcp/Texts-HTML/free/A42/A42850.html">A Table shewing the Increase and Abatement of the Plague</a>. Gadbury also used planetary tables to locate the planets’ positions throughout the epidemics. He then compared his data sets, looking for correlations.</p>
<p>Gadbury found a correlation between intensity of plague and the positions of Mars and Venus. Plague deaths increased sharply in July 1593, at which point Mars had moved into an astrologically significant position. Deaths then abated in September, when Venus’s position became more significant. Gadbury concluded that the movement of “the fiery Planet Mars” was the origin of pestilence and the “cause of its raging”, while the influence of the “friendly” Venus helped abate it.</p>
<p>Gadbury then applied his findings to the pestilence plaguing London at the time. He was able to correlate the beginnings of the plague in late 1664 and its growing intensity in June 1665 with recent astrological events.</p>
<p>He predicted the upcoming movement of Venus in August would see a fall in plague deaths. Then the movement of Mars in September would make the plague deadlier, but the movements of Venus in October, November, and December would halt the death rate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335911/original/file-20200519-83363-us3gqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The black death in London, circa 1665. Creator unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lord_haue_mercy_on_London.jpg">The black death in London</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking for patterns</h2>
<p>Unfortunately for Gadbury, plague deaths increased dramatically in August. However, he was right in predicting a peak in September followed by a steep decrease at the end of the year. If Gadbury had accounted for other correlates – such as the coming of winter – his study might have been received more favourably.</p>
<p>The medical advice in Gadbury’s book certainly doesn’t stand up today. He argued the plague was not contagious, and that isolating at home only caused more deaths. Yet his attempt to find correlations with fluctuating mortality rates offers an early example of what we now call epidemiology.</p>
<p>While we may discredit Gadbury’s astrological assumptions, examples such as this illustrate the important role astrology played in the history of medicine, paving the way for naturalist explanations of infectious disease.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Pfeffer has received funding from the Royal Society of London. </span></em></p>Fun fact: the term ‘influenza’ comes from the premodern belief stars influenced disease. Before epidemiologists, there were astrologers.Michelle Pfeffer, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in History, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288182020-01-24T13:39:36Z2020-01-24T13:39:36ZWhy your zodiac sign is probably wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309355/original/file-20200109-80169-1wreuwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1991%2C1476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the Earth orbits the Sun, the Sun appears to move through the ancient constellations of the zodiac.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ecliptic_path.jpg">Tauʻolunga/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I was born a Capricorn (please don’t judge me), but the Sun was in the middle of Sagittarius when I was born. </p>
<p>As a <a href="http://stars.astro.illinois.edu/">professor emeritus of astronomy</a>, I am often asked about the difference between astrology and astronomy. The practice of astrology, which predicts one’s fate and fortune based on the positions of the Sun, Moon, stars and planets, dates back to ancient times. It was intermingled with the science of astronomy back then – in fact, many astronomers of old made scientific observations that are valuable even today. But once Copernicus, Kepler and Galileo realized the planets orbit the Sun, rather than the Earth, and Newton discovered the physical laws behind their behavior, astrology and astronomy split, never to be reunited. </p>
<p>The science of astronomy is now at odds with one of the basic organizing principles in astrology – the dates of the zodiac.</p>
<h2>The constellations of the zodiac</h2>
<p>Over the course of a year, the Sun appears to pass through a belt of sky containing 12 ancient constellations, or groupings, of stars. They are collectively called the zodiac and consist almost entirely of animal figures, like the ram (Aries), crab (Cancer) and lion (Leo). It is a disappointment to many that the constellations only rarely look like what they represent. How could they, since they are truly random scatterings of stars? They are meant to represent, not to portray.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309733/original/file-20200113-103974-7f1x7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The word ‘zodiac’ comes from a Greek phrase that means ‘circle of animals’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/zodiac-constellations-zodiacal-calendar-dates-astrological-1562183209">Tartila/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Although the constellations of the zodiac, which date back to Mesopotamia or before, may seem definitive, they are only one example of those produced by the various cultures of the world, all of which had their own, frequently very different, notions of how the sky is constructed. The Incas, for example, made constellations not from stars, but from the <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/inca-star-worship-and-constellations-2136315">dark patches in the Milky Way</a>. </p>
<p>The number of constellations in the Western zodiac comes from the cycles of the Moon, which orbits the Earth 12.4 times a year. Roughly speaking, the Sun appears against a different constellation every new Moon, the stars forming a distant backdrop to the Sun. Though the stars are not visible during daytime, you can know what constellation the Sun is in by looking at the nighttime sky. There you will see the opposite constellation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310567/original/file-20200116-181617-c3nx4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sun is in Leo here, which means at night, you’d see Aquarius.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pngguru.com/free-transparent-background-png-clipart-gmeeu">PNGGuru</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Astrology suggests that each sign of the zodiac fits neatly into a 30-degree slice of sky – which multiplied by 12 adds up to 360 degrees. In actuality, this is not the case, as the constellations vary a great deal in shape and size. For example, the Sun passes through the constellation Scorpio in just five days, but takes 38 days to pass through Taurus. This is one of the reasons astrological signs do not line up with the constellations of the zodiac.</p>
<h2>Precession of the equinoxes</h2>
<p>The main reason astrological signs fail to line up with the zodiac, though, is a wobble in the Earth’s rotational axis called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/precession">precession</a>. As a result of its rotation, the Earth bulges slightly at the equator, not unlike how a skater’s skirt fans out as she spins. The gravity of the Moon and Sun pull on the bulge, which causes the Earth to wobble like a top. The wobble causes the Earth’s axis, which is the center line around which it rotates, to swing in a slow circle over the course of 25,800 years.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qlVgEoZDjok?wmode=transparent&start=39" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A wobbling Earth causes the dates of the zodiac to shift from those established in ancient times.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This movement alters the view of the zodiac from Earth, making the constellations appear to slide to the east, roughly a degree per human lifetime. Though slow, precession was discovered with the naked eye by <a href="http://abyss.uoregon.edu/%7Ejs/glossary/hipparchus.html">Hipparchus of Nicaea</a> around 150 B.C.</p>
<p>In ancient times, the vernal equinox – or the first day of spring – was in Aries. Due to precession, it moved into Pisces <a href="http://stars.astro.illinois.edu/books.html#sky">around 100 B.C., where it is now and will remain until A.D. 2700</a>, when it will move into Aquarius and so on. Over the course of 25,800 years, it will eventually return to Aries and the cycle will begin again.</p>
<p><iframe id="x0CHI" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/x0CHI/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As a game, astrology and its predictions of fate and personality can be fun. However the subject has no basis in science. It is to science what the game “Monopoly” is to the real estate market. </p>
<p>Astrology diverts attention away from the very real influences of the planets, primarily their gravitational effects on one another that cause real changes in the shapes, sizes and tilts of their orbits. On Earth, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07867">such changes likely caused past ice ages</a>. Direct collisions between Earth and celestial bodies can cause very rapid changes, such as the impact of an asteroid off the Yucatan Peninsula <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/dinosaur-killing-asteroid-impact-chicxulub-crater-timeline-destruction-180973075/">66 million years ago that had global effects</a> including the disappearance of dinosaurs and the rise of mammals.</p>
<p>Astronomical studies will eventually allow the prediction of such events, while astrological predictions will get you absolutely nowhere.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story has been updated to correct the animal that Aries represents. The chart has been updated to include Oct. 31 under Virgo, where it falls most years.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James B. Kaler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Astronomy and astrology do not agree on the dates of the zodiac constellations.James B. Kaler, Professor Emeritus of Astronomy, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1267372019-12-09T14:10:48Z2019-12-09T14:10:48ZMedieval medicine: astrological ‘bat books’ that told doctors when to treat patients<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303465/original/file-20191125-74584-1j4wtdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C7%2C1239%2C1268&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Physician letting blood from a patient. Attributed to Aldobrandino of Siena: Li Livres dou Santé. France, late 13th Century.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">British Library, London, UK</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Medieval doctors had to acquire a range of skills including an ability to read Latin texts, a working knowledge of the bodily “humours” and an understanding of the rudiments of blood circulation. Their diagnostic techniques were largely limited to examining a patient’s urine: they could match the colour of the urine to that on a chart, such as one now in the <a href="https://www.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/">Bodleian Library</a>, which offers an alarming spectrum of hues. After diagnosis, one of the most important treatments was bloodletting, for which physicians used detailed astrological charts.</p>
<p>In the middle ages, stars were laden with meaning and, with no light pollution in the sky, often easier to see with the naked eye than they are now. Belief in astrology was almost universal. It was generally understood that the planets and stars under which a person is born would exert influence over a person’s health and personality.</p>
<p>Someone born under Mars might grow up to be belligerent, while someone born under Venus would become lascivious. Sidereal movements – the movements of stars or other heavenly bodies – could also influence the person’s mind and body. Comets, eclipses and and conjunctions of planets were thought to foretell natural disasters or political coups. So meaningful were these cosmic events that every medieval European court had an in-house astrologer – and kings rarely took political decisions without first consulting them. </p>
<p>Medieval physicians, too, scrutinised the night skies and consulted elaborate hand-drawn charts before performing <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2141.2008.07361.x">phlebotomy</a>, the most prevalent health intervention until the 18th century. By letting blood, physicians could treat existing conditions – everything from headaches to corns – and restore the balance of the four humours in the body, blood being an admixture of all four. </p>
<p>Although children, pregnant women and those over 70 tended not to be bled, for everyone else phlebotomy was the go-to treatment. The surgeon would choose the day carefully – the age of the patient had to correspond to the phase of the Moon – and the ailment should be aligned with the position of the zodiac – that is, the fixed stars that rose annually and were associated with the months of the year. </p>
<h2>Tool of the trade</h2>
<p>A manuscript now in the National Library of Scotland probably belonged to a physician who wanted to calculate moon phases and sidereal positions before cutting open a patient’s vein.</p>
<p>According to the tenets of phlebotomy, the figures of the zodiac governed particular body parts. That concept is visualised in “Zodiac man”, according to which, Aries governs the head, Gemini the two arms, Scorpio the sex, Aquarius the shins, Pisces the feet, and so forth. </p>
<p>To treat an ailment of the feet, a physician would consult the night sky with respect to the position of Pisces. Calculating the celestial positions and the relevant time, place, and manner to incise the patient’s vein would require interpreting various charts in the manuscript. </p>
<p>Knowing how to manipulate such a manuscript and read its complex diagrams would certainly have impressed the patient and establish a power and knowledge difference between doctor and patient. The manuscript would not only have aided the surgeon in his calculations, but also served to demonstrate his expertise, a little like today’s white lab coat and stethoscope.</p>
<p>The Latin text flanking “Zodiac man” enumerates the available veins. This must not have satisfied the owner of this particular manuscript, because he added a sheet to the end of the bat book with an image of “vein man”. The diagram shows six veins on the arm, plus others on the face, legs, armpits and groin. The lines connecting the tapped man and the labels look red and arterial.</p>
<h2>Portable knowledge</h2>
<p>One type of manuscript in which one can find these diagrams is called a “bat book”. As the photographs in this article show, bat books consist of parchment sheets folded into compartments, like road maps that have to be unfolded in order to be read. Each rectangular leaf has a tab on one edge, and these tabs are gathered together with stitches so that the leaves can be bound together. They are designed to hang from a belt for portability. </p>
<p>In 2016, the great codicologist Peter Gumbert called them “<a href="http://www.brepols.net/Pages/ShowProduct.aspx?prod_id=IS-9782503568096-1">bat books</a>” – “because when in rest they hang upside-down and all folded up, but when action is required they lift up their heads and spread their wings wide”. The text is upside down so that the book is legible when it is hanging from the girdle.</p>
<p>About 60 bat books survive – the oldest having been made in Glastonbury Abbey around 1265 and the youngest in the 1470s as the printing press was sounding the death knell of the handwritten form. Of these, about 30 are English almanacs – including the one in Edinburgh’s National Library – which contain astrological and medical material. </p>
<p>This group of manuscripts contains calendars plus the charts necessary for calculating eclipses and performing phlebotomy. Two men originally <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20777967?seq=1">computed the charts in the 1380s</a> – Nicholas Lynn, who worked for John of Gaunt, and John Somer, a Franciscan friar who worked for Joan of Kent. Their respective patrons charged them with the same task: to calculate the future movements of celestial bodies for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Metonic-cycle">four Metonic cycles</a>, those beginning in 1387, 1406, 1425 and 1444.</p>
<p>As Metonic cycles last 19 years, both men calculated eclipses and Easters up til 1462. The NLS manuscript was made in the early 15th century. After 1462 it would have lost much of its usefulness. </p>
<p>Elaborate and meticulous charts present these data, and also show how eclipses are formed, with the moon blocking rays of sunlight – (fig. 3, fol. 11v). The astronomical calculations in the book are remarkable considering that the astronomers who made them had a geocentric (earth-centered), rather than heliocentric (sun-centered), model of the planetary system.</p>
<p>Both Lynn and Somer worked in Oxford, so all of the astronomical calculations are for that city. One can also see that the manuscript was written in Oxford because one of the university town’s local saints, St Frideswyde, is featured in the calendar for Oct 19. It is possible that a workshop in Oxford produced such almanacs for doctors working throughout Britain.</p>
<p>In 2002 it was presented to the Edinburgh National Library as one of three manuscripts from the <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/borthwick/">Borthwick Collection</a>, but its earlier history is not known. Because physicians carried bat books on their belts, this book form probably has a lower survival rate than codices, which would have stayed indoors most of the time and been protected on a book shelf. </p>
<p>Further analysis may reveal that the manuscript contains bloodstains, from the book’s brief career as a utilitarian guide for a knife-wielding surgeon. The bat book could be considered a late medieval smart phone: a hand-held, portable computer with apps for busy professionals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Rudy receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>A handful of manuscripts remain which give researchers valuable insights into medieval science.Kathryn Rudy, Senior Lecturer in Art History before 1800, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1227872019-10-17T19:07:37Z2019-10-17T19:07:37ZCurious Kids: how are stars made?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291448/original/file-20190909-109927-19hyjq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C4%2C1037%2C980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stars come into existence because of a powerful force of nature called gravity.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2016/hubble-rocks-with-a-heavy-metal-home">ESA/Hubble & NASA, Acknowledgement: Judy Schmidt</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au.</em> </p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>How are stars made? –Zali, age 8, Karkoo, South Australia.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>How are stars made? Well, stars are not made, they make themselves! Or maybe I should say: they come into existence because of a powerful force of nature called gravity.</p>
<p>Galaxies are where new stars are born. In galaxies, there are very large and fluffy clouds of gas and dust called nebulae. </p>
<p>Gravity makes clumps inside these fluffy clouds - like raisins in a cake. When one of these clumps start to get tightly compacted and squished together, we say its density goes up. Density means how tightly something is compacted, or squished together. </p>
<p>These dense clumps of gas also get hotter and hotter in the centre. When the gas in the centres of a clump reaches a certain temperature (millions of degrees), something quite special starts happening inside the clump: hydrogen atoms come together to form helium. </p>
<p>(As I am sure you know, atoms are like tiny building blocks that make up everything around us. You, me and all the gas and space dust – it’s all made of atoms).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296739/original/file-20191012-96235-hj7aoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When hydrogen atoms come together to form helium, it’s called nuclear fusion, and a lot of energy is released.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When hydrogen atoms come together to form helium, it’s called nuclear fusion. This process releases <em>a lot</em> of energy (it’s the opposite, yet similar process that happens when a nuclear bomb goes off). And this is how a star begins its life.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-stars-twinkle-81188">Curious Kids: Why do stars twinkle?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The life and death of a star</h2>
<p>Just like us, stars are born, they live and then they die. Curiously, the length of a star’s life depends on its birth weight. Light, low mass stars live very, very long lives.</p>
<p>Our Sun, as you probably know, is actually a star. It is about 4.5 billion years old, and is in the middle of its life. In another five billion years it will get much, much bigger but then it will start to shrivel. After that, it will die. Its nuclear power source will switch off and it will just sit there, cooling, like a burnt out piece of charcoal in a barbecue.</p>
<p>Stars that are many times heavier than our Sun live much shorter lives. The most massive stars, live for only a million years or so. Their deaths are much more spectacular than the quiet shrivelling of Sun-type stars. They go out in a bang. Scientists call them “supernovae”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296838/original/file-20191014-135513-p9oq5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The dusty nebulae from which stars form live within the spiral arms of galaxies like this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">By The Hubble Heritage Team (AURA/STScI/NASA)NASA Headquarters - Greatest Images of NASA (NASA-HQ-GRIN) - http://nix.larc.nasa.gov/info;jsessionid=1sl2so6lc9mab?id=GPN-2000-000933&orgid=12http://imgsrc.hubblesite.org/hu/db/images/hs-1999-25-a-full_tif.tif</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>You’re made of star dust</h2>
<p>Have you ever heard the saying “we are all made of star dust?” It’s actually true. Inside a star, helium atoms combine to make carbon, which is at the root of chemicals that you and all living things are made out of.</p>
<p>There is plenty we still do not understand about the mysterious lives of stars. Fortunately, we have large telescopes and space satellites to get better and better pictures. All we need is smart people like you to come and help figure out the puzzle!</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-can-earth-be-affected-by-a-black-hole-in-the-future-118181">Curious Kids: can Earth be affected by a black hole in the future?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122787/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Orsola De Marco receives funding from the ARC. She is affiliated with Macquarie University's Astronomy, Astrophysics and Astrophotonics Research Centre. </span></em></p>Stars begin their life inside very large, fluffy clouds of space dust and gas called nebulae.Orsola De Marco, Astrophysicist , Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1111582019-02-21T11:43:23Z2019-02-21T11:43:23ZWhat alchemy and astrology can teach artificial intelligence researchers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259312/original/file-20190215-56246-1vj2qqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=186%2C379%2C2072%2C2417&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alchemists' dreams distracted from real scientific goals.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Van_Bentum_Explosion_in_the_Alchemist%E2%80%99s_Laboratory_FA_2000.001.285.jpg">Justus Gustav van Bentum/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence researchers and engineers have spent a lot of effort trying to build machines that look like humans and operate largely independently. Those tempting dreams have distracted many of them from where the real progress is already happening: in systems that <a href="https://standards.ieee.org/industry-connections/ec/ead-v1.html">enhance – rather than replace – human capabilities</a>. To accelerate the shift to new ways of thinking, AI designers and developers could take some lessons from the missteps of past researchers.</p>
<p>For example, alchemists, like <a href="https://www.biography.com/news/isaac-newton-alchemy-philosophers-stone">Isaac Newton</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/alchemy">pursued ambitious goals</a> such as converting lead to gold, creating a panacea to cure all diseases, and <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo12335123.html">finding potions for immortality</a>. While these goals are alluring, the charlatans pursuing them may have <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo5506197.html">secured princely financial backing</a> that would have been better used developing modern chemistry.</p>
<p>Equally optimistically, astrologers believed they could understand human personality based on birthdates and predict future events by studying the positions of the stars and planets. These promises over the past thousand years <a href="https://www.upress.pitt.edu/books/9780822944430/">often received kingly endorsement</a>, possibly slowing the work of those who were adopting scientific methods that eventually led to astronomy.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259313/original/file-20190215-56229-1trvern.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Astrologers looked to models of the heavens for signs about the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Personification_of_Astrology,_by_Giovanni_Francesco_Barbieri,_called_Guercino,_c._1650-1655,_oil_on_canvas_-_Blanton_Museum_of_Art_-_Austin,_Texas_-_DSC07888.jpg">Giovanni Francesco Barbieri via Daderot/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As alchemy and astrology evolved, the participants became <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/alchemy-may-not-been-pseudoscience-we-thought-it-was-180949430/">more deliberate and organized</a> – what might now be called more scientific – about their studies. That shift eventually led to important findings in chemistry, such as those by <a href="https://www.sciencehistory.org/historical-profile/antoine-laurent-lavoisier">Lavoisier</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencehistory.org/historical-profile/joseph-priestley">Priestley</a> in the 18th century. In astronomy, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Johannes-Kepler">Kepler</a> and <a href="https://www.newton.ac.uk/about/isaac-newton/life">Newton</a> himself made significant findings in the 17th and 18th centuries. A similar turning point is coming for artificial intelligence. Bold innovators are putting aside tempting but impractical dreams of anthropomorphic designs and excessive autonomy. They focus on systems that restore, rely on, and expand human control and responsibility.</p>
<h2>Updating early AI dreams</h2>
<p>Back in the 1950s, artificial intelligence researchers pursued big goals, such as human-level computational intelligence and machine consciousness. Even during the past 20 years some researchers worked toward the “<a href="http://singularity.com/">singularity</a>” fantasy of machines that are superior to humans in every way. These dreams succeeded in attracting attention from sympathetic journalists and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/silicon-valley-s-singularity-university-has-some-serious-reality-problems">financial backing from government and industry</a>. But to me, those aspirations still seem like counterproductive wishful thinking and B-level science fiction.</p>
<p>Even the dream of creating a <a href="https://www.therobotreport.com/humanoid-robots-watch-2019/">human-shaped robot</a> that acted like a person has lasted for more than 50 years. <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/28/17514134/honda-asimo-humanoid-robot-retire">Honda’s near-life-size Asimo</a> and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ananova">web-based news reader Ananova</a> got a lot of <a href="https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/this-news-anchor-is-actually-an-ai-powered-robot/">media attention</a>. <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/sophia-robot-citizen-womens-rights-detriot-become-human-hanson-robotics">Hanson Robotics’ Sophia</a> even received <a href="https://qz.com/1205017/saudi-arabias-robot-citizen-is-eroding-human-rights/">Saudi Arabian citizenship</a>. But they have little commercial future. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qNoTjrgMUcs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The robot Sophia spoke at the United Nations.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, down-to-earth user-centered designs for information search, e-commerce sites, social media and smartphone apps <a href="https://www.pearson.com/us/higher-education/program/Shneiderman-Designing-the-User-Interface-Strategies-for-Effective-Human-Computer-Interaction-6th-Edition/PGM327860.html">have been wild successes</a>. There is good reason that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft are some of the world’s biggest companies – they all use more functional, if less glamorous, types of AI.</p>
<p>Today’s cellphones feature speech recognition, face recognition and automated translation, which all <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/14/magazine/the-great-ai-awakening.html">use artificial intelligence technologies</a>. These functions increase human control and give users more options, without the deception and theatrics of a humanoid robot.</p>
<h2>Yielding control</h2>
<p>Efforts that pursue advanced forms of computer autonomy are also dangerous. When developers assume their machines will function correctly, they often shortchange interfaces that would allow human users to quickly take control when something goes wrong.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259314/original/file-20190215-56212-1uczk7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Investigators search through wreckage from Lion Air Flight 610 after its crash in the Java Sea in October 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Indonesia-Lion-Air-Crash/22d78914a4174c1f91503f0fcd865287/174/0">AP Photo/Tatan Syuflana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These problems can be deadly. In the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/world/asia/lion-air-plane-crash-pilots.html">October 2018 crash of Lion Air’s Boeing 737 Max</a>, a sensor failure caused the newly designed automatic pilot to steer the plane downwards. The pilots couldn’t figure out how to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/16/world/asia/lion-air-crash-cockpit.html">override those automatic controls</a> to keep the plane in the air. Similar problems have been factors in stock market “flash crashes,” like the 2010 event in which <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash">US$1 trillion disappeared in 36 minutes</a>. And poorly designed medical devices have delivered <a href="https://psnet.ahrq.gov/webmm/case/291/Death-by-PCA">deadly doses of medications</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/accidentreports/reports/har1702.pdf">National Transportation Safety Board report on the deadly May 2016 Tesla crash</a> called for automated systems to keep detailed records that would allow investigators to analyze failures. Those insights would lead to safer and more effective designs.</p>
<h2>Getting to human-centered solutions</h2>
<p>Successful automation is all around: Navigation applications give drivers control by showing times for alternative routes. E-commerce websites show shoppers options, customer reviews and clear pricing so they can find and order the goods they need. Elevators, clothes-washing machines and airline check-in kiosks, too, have meaningful controls that enable users to get what they need done quickly and reliably. When modern cameras assist photographers in taking properly focused and exposed photos, users have a sense of mastery and accomplishment for composing the image, even as they get assistance with optimizing technical details. </p>
<p>Without being human-like or fully independent, these and thousands of other applications enable users to accomplish their tasks with self-confidence and sometimes even pride.</p>
<p>A new report from a leading engineering industry professional group urges technologists to <a href="https://standards.ieee.org/industry-connections/ec/ead-v1.html">ignore tempting fantasies</a>. Rather, the report suggests, developers should focus on technologies that support human performance and are more immediately useful.</p>
<p>In a flourishing automation-enhanced world, clear, convenient interfaces could let humans control automation to make the most of people’s initiative, creativity and responsibility. The most successful machines could be powerful tools that let users carry out ever-richer tasks with confidence, such as helping architects find innovative ways to design energy-efficient buildings, and giving journalists tools to dig deeper into data to detect fraud and corruption. Other machines could detect – not contribute to – problems like unsafe medical conditions and bias in mortgage loan approvals. Perhaps they could even advise the people responsible on ways to fix things. </p>
<p>Humans are accomplished at building tools that expand their creativity – and then at using those tools in even more innovative ways than their designers intended. In my view, it’s time to let more people be more creative more of the time, by shifting away from the alchemy and astrology phase of AI research. </p>
<p>Technology designers who appreciate and amplify the key aspects of humanity are most likely to invent the next generation of powerful tools. These designers will shift from trying to replace or simulate human behavior in machines to building wildly successful applications that people love to use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Shneiderman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pursuing big, unrealistic dreams can distract from real scientific progress. It’s time for AI research to focus on restoring and expanding human control and responsibility.Ben Shneiderman, Professor of Computer Science, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/898862018-01-10T07:59:15Z2018-01-10T07:59:15ZSouth Africans are trying to decode Ramaphosa (and getting it wrong)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201374/original/file-20180109-36025-1420ocr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa has been the subject of much scrutiny during his rise to the party's top position.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS/GovernmentZA/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the Cold War, a new profession emerged – “<a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Kremlinology">Kremlinologists</a>”, a hodge-podge of academics, journalists, other scoundrels, and commentators, who would study every minute detail of the behaviour of Soviet Union leaders when they were in public. </p>
<p>They examined who stood next to whom, whose chair was closer or further away from the leader, who looked at whom and who was ignored. And then came to profound conclusions about the intentions of the old Kremlin. </p>
<p>The Germans invented a rather better word for it - “Kreml-Astrologie” (Kremlin Astrology), reminding us that quackery of this sort is generally just plain wrong.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/cyril-matamela-ramaphosa">Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-has-a-new-leader-but-south-africa-remains-on-a-political-precipice-89248">new president</a> of South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), is generating a similar type of interest and a new industry of Cyril-ologists. The commentariat has been in overdrive since the ANC’s elective conference in December, trying to tell South Africans (and Ramaphosa) exactly what he’s thinking, what he’s missed, what his strategy is or will be, and what he should do. They tell the country how he will play the short or long game against President Jacob Zuma’s faction in the ANC, or what he will do against others in the “top 6” leadership of the governing party. And on and on it goes, based on very little.</p>
<p>Many are pushing their own agenda, rather unsubtly; but in large part this is occurring because Ramaphosa plays his cards close to his chest, and allows South Africans to inscribe onto his image the leader they wish him to be. </p>
<p>He is, of course, a highly adept politician. He can’t really lose if every possible future action has been rehearsed by one soothsayer or another.</p>
<h2>Saint or sinner?</h2>
<p>The challenges are twofold: one is trying to work out what Ramaphosa is thinking and planning, which is reasonable enough; the second, however, are the commentators demanding that he follow this or that course of action. He “must” fire Zuma or he “must” build unity or he “must” leave the Reserve Bank alone …. on and on the list of demands goes. </p>
<p>It’s well known that he’s a successful businessman. Apparently, he is <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2018/01/08/ramaphosa-anc-collectivism/?acid=zjwGI8HFCeceZeuwhd4cWQ%3D%3D&adid=JN2%2FW7Ea3U4Q9pc0JfeOsA%3D%3D&date=2018-01-09">“uber wealthy”</a>, so wealthy in fact, as Gwede Mantashe, chairman of the ANC said, that he doesn’t need to <a href="http://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/ramaphosa-wont-steal-because-he-is-rich--gwede-man">steal from the state</a>. </p>
<p>But how rich is he in reality? No one has a clue. </p>
<p>But mention land expropriation and he turns from <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/21/anc-s-decision-on-land-expropriation-without-compensation-a-radical-move">saviour to sinner in a flash</a>. The admiring Cyril-ologists who want “stability” are reduced to shock and horror when he talks of using the <a href="https://www.power987.co.za/news/politics/read-ramaphosas-full-maiden-speech-as-anc-president/">land productively</a>, or economic transformation, or uses the word “radical” at all, as if the inequality bred from the status quo is not about to sink the entire boat.</p>
<p>For others, Ramaphosa is an evil capitalist from whose hands the blood of <a href="https://theconversation.com/marikana-tragedy-must-be-understood-against-the-backdrop-of-structural-violence-in-south-africa-43868">Marikana</a> – the scene of the death of 34 miners at the hands of the police – will <a href="https://citizen.co.za/opinion/opinion-columns/1613696/marikana-continues-to-haunt-ramaphosa/">never be cleansed</a>. The evangelical left will never forget or forgive him for this – and they may be correct. But at some point the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2015-06-26-marikana-report-key-findings-and-recommendations/#.WlSqBZP1XbM">findings of the Farlam Commission</a> that there was no causal link between Ramaphosa’s e-mails and the appalling events that unfolded will have to be accepted.</p>
<p>For others, simply not being Zuma, or in the <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/download-the-full-state-of-capture-pdf-20161102">“state capture” </a>crony list, is sufficient. This is a man who didn’t even make the index at the back of Jacques Pauw’s explosive book, <a href="https://www.cna.co.za/the-most-riveting-new-book.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI25OOw47L2AIVBpPtCh397wg6EAAYASAAEgICXfD_BwE">The President’s Keepers</a>, in which so many of the ANC glitterati played a starring role. Ramaphosa doesn’t need to be a saint, just not a sinner of Zuma’s magnitude or ineptitude. </p>
<p>And for yet another camp, this is a second (and possibly final) chance for the ANC, if not the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-01-09-op-ed-cyril-ramaphosas-presidency-an-opportunity-for-clean-up-and-new-beginning/#.WlR9-pP1XbM">entire progressive movement</a> to (try again to) get it right. He is seen as the best (if not the only) chance the ANC has to return to a transparent, democratic project with progressive impulses that puts the needs of the poor ahead of the elite. </p>
<p>The will to believe this is surprisingly strong given that loyal ANC members have seen the party’s fairly radical programme of 1994 replaced first with strict fiscal controls under Thabo Mbeki and then with all-out looting under Zuma. Ramaphosa - central to the democratic project in the 1990s (and not an exile) – is the beneficiary of this almost mystical hope.</p>
<p>He is also frequently referred to as an enigma – describing himself <a href="http://www.jacana.co.za/book-categories/political-history-and-current-affair/cyril-ramaphosa-detail">as such</a> to biographer Anthony Butler at their first meeting. The problem with enigmatic leaders is that they tend to be … well, enigmatic, and unavailable for “Astrologie” of any type.</p>
<h2>Master tactician and negotiator</h2>
<p>Perhaps it is easiest to use two categories that actually matter – his business interests are of limited interest as he heads to the Union Buildings, so too his enigmatic charm, or knowing the exact composition of his backroom team, or what he had for breakfast. </p>
<p>What matters is that he is a politician and a negotiator. Nimble and tactically shrewd seem perhaps more useful labels than saint or sinner. He plays the long game. Most commentators forget that, and demand immediate action - including the firing of some ministers and incompetent heads of state owned enterprises. They also want immediate judicial proceedings against the entire basket of deplorables in government, and other dramatic interventions.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa has been negotiating for the last 40 years, starting during his days in the National Union of Mineworkers followed by talks under the Convention for a Democratic South Africa <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">(Codesa)</a> that ended apartheid, and topped by his role holding together the entire <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/writers-constitution-0">Constitutional Assembly</a> that wrote the country’s new constitution. </p>
<p>It’s remarkable – and a little ridiculous – that a man who crafted his victory against a formidable and highly resourced machinery, in a context of violence and fear (and considerable loathing), is expected suddenly to make rash moves to satisfy whoever is making their demand. So much for ‘Astrologie’.</p>
<p>One thing South Africans can probably be sure of: we won’t know what Ramaphosa plans to do until it is done. </p>
<p>We can watch who stands near him, who he smiles at and who not, who he backslaps and with whom he shakes hand, or read the entrails of a slaughtered beast – and be none the wiser. There will be few dramatic announcements, sudden ruptures, or grand gestures. </p>
<p>This is not a man to challenge at chess. He is also not a man who likes to lose. He may well be the only man able to get South Africa out of the looming economic checkmate bequeathed it by his predecessor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Everatt receives funding from research donors.</span></em></p>The study of Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s deputy president and new head of its governing party, is generating a great deal of heat, and not much light.David Everatt, Head of Wits School of Governance, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/803092017-08-09T00:28:51Z2017-08-09T00:28:51ZEclipsing the occult in early America: Benjamin Franklin and his almanacs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181273/original/file-20170807-2667-6m8q7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C801%2C6501%2C5729&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Franklin's lifelong quest was spreading scientific knowledge to regular people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2003674083/">Mason Chamberlin</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>By the time he was 20 years old, colonial American Benjamin Franklin had already spent two years working as a printer in London. He returned to Philadelphia in 1726. During the sea voyage home, he kept a journal that included many of his observations of the natural world. Franklin was inquisitive, articulate and <a href="http://www.pbs.org/benfranklin/l3_inquiring_weather.html">interested in mastering the universe</a>.</p>
<p>During one afternoon calm on September 14, Franklin wrote,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“as we sat playing Draughts upon deck, we were surprised with a sudden and unusual darkness of the sun, which as we could perceive was only covered with a small thin cloud: when that was passed by, we discovered that that glorious luminary laboured under a very great eclipse. At least ten parts out of twelve of him were hid from our eyes, and we were apprehensive he would have been totally darkened.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Total solar eclipses are not rare phenomena; <a href="https://www.space.com/25644-total-solar-eclipses-frequency-explained.html">every 18 months</a> on average one occurs somewhere on Earth. Franklin and his shipmates likely had seen eclipses before. What was different for Franklin and his generation was a new understanding of the causes of eclipses and the possibility of accurately predicting them.</p>
<p>Earlier generations in Europe relied on magical thinking, interpreting such celestial events through the lens of the occult, as if the universe were sending a message from heaven. By contrast, Franklin came of age at a time when supernatural readings were held in suspicion. He would go on to spread modern scientific views of astronomical events through his popular almanac – and attempt to free people from the realm of the occult and astrological prophecy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181275/original/file-20170807-25556-188qjlc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ptolemy’s Earth-centered universe with the moon, Mercury, Venus, the sun, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn orbiting our planet.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Planisphaerium_Ptolemaicum_siue_machina_orbium_mundi_ex_hypothesi_Ptolemaica_in_plano_disposita_(2709983277).jpg">Andreas Cellarius</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Beyond divine heavens with modern astronomy</h2>
<p>Ancient people conceived of the heavens as built around human beings. For centuries, people subscribed to the <a href="http://galileo.rice.edu/sci/theories/ptolemaic_system.html">Ptolemaic belief about the solar system</a>: The planets and the sun revolved around the stationary Earth.</p>
<p>The idea that God drove the heavens is very old. Because people thought that their god (or gods) guided all heavenly occurrences, it’s not surprising that many people – <a href="http://idp.bl.uk/4DCGI/education/astronomy/sky.html">ancient Chinese</a>, for example, and <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/solar-eclipse-apocalypse-how-ancient-civilisations-explained-disappearance-sun-1492508">Egyptians and Europeans</a> – believed that what they witnessed in the skies above provided signs of future events. </p>
<p>For this reason, solar eclipses were for many centuries understood to be harbingers of good or evil for humankind. They were attributed <a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar-eclipse-history.html">magical or mysterious predictive qualities</a> that could influence human lives. During the first century A.D., people – including astrologers, magicians, alchemists and mystics – who claimed to have mastery over supernatural phenomena held sway over kings, religious leaders and whole populations.</p>
<p>Nicholas Copernicus, whose life straddled the 15th and 16th centuries, used scientific methods to devise a more accurate understanding of the solar system. In his famous book, “On the Revolutions of the Celestial Spheres” (published in 1543), Copernicus showed that the planets revolved around the sun. He didn’t get it all right, though: He thought planetary bodies had circular orbits, because the Christian God would have designed perfect circles in the cosmos. That planetary motion is elliptical is a later discovery.</p>
<p>By the time Benjamin Franklin grew up in New England (about 150 years later), few people still believed in the Ptolemaic system. Most had learned from living in an increasingly enlightened culture that the Copernican system was more reliable. Franklin, like many in his generation, believed that knowledge about the scientific causes for changes in the environment could work to reduce human fears about what the skies might portend. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1081&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1081&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181276/original/file-20170807-25576-1ftk19s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1081&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By measuring the height of celestial objects with an astrolabe, a user could predict the position of stars, planets and the sun.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Astrolabe_planisférique.jpg">Pom²</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was an age of wonder, still, but wonder was harnessed to technological advances that could help people understand better the world they lived in. Accurate instruments, such as the astrolabe, allowed people to measure the motion of the planets and thus predict movements in the heavens, particularly phenomena like solar and lunar eclipses and the motions of planets like Venus.</p>
<p>In his earliest printed articles, Franklin criticized the idea that education belonged solely to the elite. He hoped to bring knowledge to common people, so they could rely on expertise outside of what they might hear in churches. Franklin opted to use his own almanacs – along with his satirical pen – to help readers distinguish between astronomical events and astrological predictions.</p>
<h2>Old-fashioned almanacs</h2>
<p>Printing was a major technological innovation during the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries that helped foster information-sharing, <a href="https://sites.google.com/a/umich.edu/from-tablet-to-tablet/final-projects/-almanacs-in-17th-and-18th-century-america-michael-myckowiak-14">particularly via almanacs</a>.</p>
<p>These amazing compilations included all kinds of useful information and were relied on by farmers, merchants, traders and general readers in much the same way we rely on smartphones today. Colonial American almanacs provided the estimated times of sunrises and sunsets, high and low tides, periods of the moon and sun, the rise and fall of constellations, solar and lunar eclipses, and the transit of planets in the night skies. More expensive almanacs included local information such as court dates, dates of markets and fairs, and roadway distances between places. Most almanacs also offered standard reference information, including lists of the reigns of monarchs of England and Europe, along with a chronology of important dates in the Christian Era. </p>
<p><a href="https://newenglandquarterly.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/colonial-almanacs/">Almanac culture dominated New England life</a> when Franklin was a youth. They were the most purchased items American printers offered, with many a printer making his chief livelihood by printing almanacs.</p>
<p>Almanacs were money-makers, so <a href="http://www.librarycompany.org/BFWriter/poor.htm">Franklin developed his own version</a> shortly after he opened his own shop in Philadelphia. The city already had almanac-makers – Titan Leeds and John Jerman, among others – but Franklin aimed to gain the major share of the almanac trade.</p>
<p>Franklin considered astrological prediction foolish, especially in light of new scientific discoveries being made about the universe. He thought almanacs should not prognosticate on future events, as if people were still living in the dark ages. So he found a way to <a href="http://www.vlib.us/amdocs/texts/prichard44.html">make fun of his competitors</a> who continued to pretend they could legitimately use eclipses, for instance, to predict future events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181278/original/file-20170807-28176-k1oa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Franklin dispensed many aphorisms in the guise of ‘Poor Richard,’ such as ‘Love your Enemies, for they tell you your Faults.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2003654338/">Oliver Pelton</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Introducing Poor Richard</h2>
<p>In addition to the usual fare, <a href="http://www.benjamin-franklin-history.org/poor-richards-almanac/">Franklin’s almanac provided</a> stories, aphorisms and poems, all ostensibly curated by a homespun character he created: <a href="http://www.librarycompany.org/BFWriter/poor.htm">Richard Saunders, the fictional “author”</a> of Franklin’s “Poor Richard’s Almanac.”</p>
<p>The “Poor Richard” Saunders persona allowed Franklin to satirize almanac makers who still wrote about eclipses as occult phenomena. Satire works because it closely reproduces the object being made fun of, with a slight difference. We’re familiar with this method today from watching skits on “Saturday Night Live” and other parody programs.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1094&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1094&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1094&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1375&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181280/original/file-20170807-20706-16xeqxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1375&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Title page of Franklin’s first ‘Poor Richard’ almanac, for 1733.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Franklin’s voice was close enough to his satirical target that “Poor Richard” stole the market. For instance, Poor Richard began his career by predicting the death of Titan Leeds, his competitor. He later would do the same thing to John Jerman. Franklin was determined to mock almanac-makers who pretended to possess occult knowledge. Nobody knows when a person might die, and only astrologers would pretend to think a solar or lunar eclipse might mean something for humans.</p>
<p>Franklin included a wonderfully funny section in his almanac for 1735, making light of his competitors who did offer astrological prognostications. As “Poor Richard,” he wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I shall not say much of the Signification of the Eclipses this Year, for in truth they do not signifie much; only I may observe by the way, that the first Eclipse of the Moon being celebrated in Libra or the Ballance, foreshews a Failure of Justice, where People judge in their own Cases. But in the following Year 1736, there will be six Eclipses, four of the Sun, and two of the Moon, which two Eclipses of the Moon will be both total, and portend great Revolutions in Europe, particularly in Germany….”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Richard Saunders is clear in the opening remark that “Eclipses … do not signifie much.” He nonetheless goes on to base amazing predictions for 1736 on them, in effect lampooning anyone who would rely on the stars to foretell human events. Great revolutions were taking place in Europe, but no one needed to read eclipses in order to figure that out; they needed only to read the day’s newspapers.</p>
<p>The next year, Franklin decided go a step further than just satirizing these occult prognostications. He had Richard Saunders explain his understanding of some of the science behind eclipses. He characterized the “Difference between Eclipses of the Moon and of the Sun” by reporting that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“All Lunar Eclipses are universal, i.e. visible in all Parts of the Globe which have the Moon above their Horizon, and are every where of the same Magnitude: But Eclipses of the Sun do not appear the same in all Parts of the Earth where they are seen; being when total in some Places, only partial in others; and in other Places not seen at all, tho’ neither Clouds nor Horizon prevent the Sight of the Sun it self.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The goal of an explanation like this? To eclipse occult belief. He hoped people would become more confident about the universe and everything in it and would learn to rely on <a href="http://nationaleclipse.com/history.html">scientifically validated knowledge</a> rather than an almanac-maker’s fictions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla J. Mulford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Franklin advanced a scientific – not supernatural – understanding of astronomical events such as eclipses. His satirical character ‘Poor Richard’ mocked those who bought into astrological predictions.Carla J. Mulford, Professor of English, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/711922017-04-28T09:12:27Z2017-04-28T09:12:27ZHow many people actually believe in astrology?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166127/original/file-20170420-20068-v4qpgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/astrological-plate-all-signs-zodiac-371021159?src=6AdaBVKzod3sHbh9oyXsaQ-1-2">Photosani/www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Astrology and horoscope columns are a familiar feature of tabloid newspapers, women’s magazines and the web. They claim, controversially for some, that there is a meaningful relationship between celestial and terrestrial events, especially human affairs. </p>
<p>Astrology as we know it now, linking planets to the 12 zodiac signs in order to manage life on Earth, was devised in the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/astrology">Middle East and classical Greece</a> between the fifth and first centuries BCE. It was largely transmitted to the 21st century <a href="http://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/astr/hd_astr.htm">via the Islamic world</a>. </p>
<p>These days, astrology arouses vilification from two corners. On one side are evangelical Christians who regard it as seriously misleading at best, <a href="https://www.gty.org/library/questions/QA204/what-is-the-biblical-teaching-on-astrology">and Satanic at worst</a>. On the other, sceptics denounce the idea that our destiny may lie in the stars <a href="http://www.astrologer.com/aanet/pub/journal/romance.html">as fraudulent</a>
and <a href="http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html">even harmful</a>. </p>
<p>If such claims are true, it’s important to work out how many people believe in astrology, and why. The time is ripe for some <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-people-think-astrology-is-a-science-heres-why-28642">serious investigation</a>.</p>
<h2>Meanings and belief</h2>
<p>Just how many people believe in astrology and why they still do – even when their own experiences prove otherwise – is a curiosity for many. But in order to answer these questions, we need to first develop more fluid categories of belief and disbelief. We cannot simply say that followers of astrology wholly believe in it, or that others completely disbelieve. It is a complex question, <a href="http://fusion.net/story/135212/not-even-astrology-researchers-believe-in-astrology-inside-a-bizarre-academic-fight-over-celebrities-and-signs/">even for professional astrologers and researchers</a>.</p>
<p>Evidence suggests that <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Astrology-and-Popular-Religion-in-the-Modern-West-Prophecy-Cosmology/Campion/p/book/9781409435143">over 90% of adults</a> know their sun (zodiac) signs. Some surveys also <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Astrology-and-Popular-Religion-in-the-Modern-West-Prophecy-Cosmology/Campion/p/book/9781409435143">indicate</a> that well over half agree that the signs’ character descriptions are a good fit: Ariens are energetic, Taureans stubborn, and Scorpios secretive, for example.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167146/original/file-20170428-15091-bdvfmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Does astrology dictate your future?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/prague-astronomical-clock-old-town-559874215?src=xEH5HxGXOot2kDpeyXKsEg-2-17">Minoli/www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To find out what the most involved “believers” – that is, those who are dedicated followers or professionally involved in astrology – think, I distributed questionnaires to public groups and astrology conferences from 1998 to 2012. The purpose of this <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Astrology-and-Popular-Religion-in-the-Modern-West-Prophecy-Cosmology/Campion/p/book/9781409435143">recently published research</a> was specifically to establish how many people believe in astrology, and why. Most published figures for belief in astrology are derived from Gallup polls taken in Britain, Canada and the US between 1975 and 1996 – to which around <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/19558/paranormal-beliefs-come-supernaturally-some.aspx">25% of adults</a> polled answered “yes” to questions such as “do you believe in horoscopes?”.</p>
<p>We might expect that all practitioners and students of astrology would say they believe. However, when I put the question to delegates at a British Astrological Association conference, just 27% said “yes” – about the same as the general population. When I asked the astrologers who didn’t “believe” for their reasons, they replied that astrology is no more a matter of belief than television or music: it is real, so has nothing to do with belief. Or to put it another way, people only believe in things which don’t exist. Which is why public surveys on belief can come up with misleading results.</p>
<h2>Valued advice</h2>
<p>During my research, I followed an <a href="http://www.susanblackmore.co.uk/Articles/Correl01.htm">established method</a> of asking a series of questions on attitudes and activity, while avoiding mention of belief altogether. The picture which emerged is much more complex than the simple binary distinction between belief and disbelief suggests. </p>
<p>In one of my groups – of mostly male students aged 18 to 21 – I found that 70% read a horoscope column once a month and 51% valued its advice. Other questions produced a huge variation: 98% knew their sun sign, 45% thought it described their personalities, 25% said it can make accurate forecasts, and 20% think the stars influence life on Earth. The higher figures are close to <a href="http://www.cultureandcosmos.org/abstracts/1-1-BauerAndDurant.php">previous research</a> which showed that 73% of British adults believe in astrology, while the lowest figures are similar to those found by Gallup’s polls.</p>
<p>I asked other questions about the students’ behaviour as well as their attitudes. Nearly half (45%) confessed to finding out potential or actual partners’ sun signs so they could manage their relationships better, and 31% had read their predictions for the year ahead.</p>
<p>What became clear from all my surveys is that when we ask questions about personal experience, meaning and behaviour – such as valuing an astrologer’s advice or finding out partners’ signs – positive responses are about twice as high, if not more, than when we ask for statements of objective fact (such as “does astrology make accurate forecasts?”). </p>
<p>My samples were small, and each one represented a snapshot of a particular group, which makes it difficult to generalise. But all suggest that when we ask a variety of questions we arrive at different answers. How many people believe in astrology? It could be 22%. It may be 73%. The difference between the two figures is what I call the “belief gap”, the zone of doubt and uncertainty between deep and shallow commitment.</p>
<p>So why do people believe in astrology? The problem we have is in establishing reliable research. If we can’t actually get to first base and find out how many people believe in it, then attempts to establish why people find it meaningful – a better word than belief – get stuck.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Campion does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some rely on star signs for answers while others regard it as nonsense.Nicholas Campion, Senior Lecturer in Archaeology, History and Anthropology, University of Wales Trinity Saint DavidLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/582572016-12-30T09:18:18Z2016-12-30T09:18:18ZWhat would the ancient astrologers have told us about 2017?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138514/original/image-20160920-12465-1hdl9a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Old sky map depicting boreal and austral hemispheres with constellations and zodiac signs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marzolino/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Apparently 2017 will be <a href="https://www.horoscope.com/us/horoscopes/yearly/2016-horoscope-sagittarius.aspx">my year</a> – indeed, it is a good year for everyone born between November 22 and December 21 under the sign of Sagittarius – half man, half horse, all myth. </p>
<p>Modern astrology as we know it – in the form of a <a href="https://www.astrologyzone.com/">yearly, monthly or daily horoscope</a> – is based on a celestial coordinate system known as the “zodiac”, a Greek word that means the circle of life. And, although astrology has been dated to the third millennium BC, it <a href="http://www.kepler.edu/home/index.php/articles/history-of-astrology/item/324-origins-of-astrology-the-egyptian-legacy">has been argued</a> that it began as soon as humans made a conscious attempt to measure, record and predict seasonal changes.</p>
<p>But, unlike modern times where the idea of star signs and horoscopes is often scoffed at, until the 17th century <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=xKBsCQAAQBAJ&pg=PA1&lpg=PA1&dq=astrology+scholarly+tradition&source=bl&ots=mkGMq15pbi&sig=m0_aIhdafEYcYn-MgcoXES8prJQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi72PGPye7QAhVMCMAKHYuUDyoQ6AEIODAF#v=onepage&q=astrology%20scholarly%20tradition&f=false">astrology was seen as a scholarly tradition</a>. And it is credited as influencing the development of astronomy – because back then its concepts were used in alchemy, mathematics, meteorology and medicine. And it was even accepted in political and cultural circles. </p>
<p>But by the end of the 17th century, emerging scientific concepts in astronomy undermined the theoretical basis of astrology, which as a result fell out of favour.</p>
<h2>The ancient ‘mathematici’</h2>
<p>Medieval astrologers – who were known as mathematici – wove stories in an attempt to say something true about the world. And, much like modern mathematicians, they made predictions which they hoped could be verified.</p>
<p>One of the earliest Christian authors, Origen, <a href="http://www.newadvent.org/fathers/04161.htm">hinted</a> at the presence and desire for knowledge about the future, given by mathematici. Origen, who had a somewhat uneasy relationship with Christian orthodoxy, speaks of man’s “insatiable desire” to know about the future. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138518/original/image-20160920-12465-1hy63st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Astrologer-astronomer Richard of Wallingford is shown measuring an equatorium with a pair of compasses in this 14th-century work.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He complained about the situation of the Old Testament Israelites who were forbidden from “heathen” <a href="http://www.4angelspublications.com/Books/SiRP/CHAPTER%204.pdf">divination techniques</a>, including “astrology” and argued that in the Israelites’ desperation to know more about their future they turned to their prophets and the stories they told. Though, this was convenient for Origen because he argues that they foretold the coming of Christ. </p>
<p>Several centuries after Origen’s death, bishops at the Christian council of Braga in 561 <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=6y41DQAAQBAJ&pg=PA422&lpg=PA422&dq=bishops+at+the+Christian+council+of+Braga+astrology&source=bl&ots=7nAea4bEau&sig=roQQ6CJ54ywxAk5VZGzCIDvun5A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiCtdiiyu7QAhVMKsAKHahHAYIQ6AEILDAD#v=onepage&q=bishops%20at%20the%20Christian%20council%20of%20Braga%20astrology&f=false">condemned these mathematici and their stories</a> because of their implicit assumption that the future could be told by looking at the stars – which raised questions about free will. </p>
<h2>Stars aligned</h2>
<p>Throughout history, astrology and the stories told by mathematici were repeatedly condemned – and the frequent criticism of the practice only makes sense in the context of astrology’s prevalence in the everyday life of the early Middle Ages. After all, you can only disprove what is practised.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138516/original/image-20160920-12472-8cgmv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The purported relation between body parts and the signs of the zodiac.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=108849">Limbourg brothers - Own work, Public Domain</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Part of the problem was that the stories astrologers and their horoscopes elicited could be dangerous, wielded by kings and emperors like monarchical manifestos that described the tone of their rule, violent or peaceful, long or short. But like beauty, the meaning of a story lies in the eye of the beholder. </p>
<p>Astrology in the Middle Ages held an ambiguous position, disparaged but common, reviled but satiating an “innate desire”. It told stories about the world and the lives of the people in it, stories that hinted at their true desires and motivations. </p>
<p>Such desires are no more apparent and perhaps surprising that in the case of the bishop and <a href="http://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-1-4419-9917-7_333">amateur astrologer Pierre d’Ailly</a> around the year 1400. At the time, the church faced a division which threatened to rip the institution in two. <a href="https://books.google.ie/books?id=mgnaIRVSx44C&pg=PA450&dq=The+Three+Popes:+An+Account+of+the+Great+Schism&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=The%20Three%20Popes%3A%20An%20Account%20of%20the%20Great%20Schism&f=false">The Great Schism</a> was a result of a desire for a Roman pope after years of the pope having a base in Avignon, France – and a series of popes and antipopes brought turmoil to the Church and across Europe. </p>
<p>Plus, historically speaking, the beginnings of centuries and millennia have tended to encourage people to reflect on the stability of the world and its possible end – and the schism brought that sharply into focus.</p>
<p>D’Ailly examined the night sky, but did not predict fire and damnation, instead, he suggested that the end of the world was far in the future, something for other generations to worry about. D’Ailly confounded expectations by reading the stars and telling whoever would listen to him a convenient truth: the stars tell us to press on and to make something more of this world – and who could argue with that? </p>
<h2>Reading the future</h2>
<p>For D’Ailly, the prospect of an imminent apocalypse called only for man to repent and pray – and possibly abandon the institutions that kept the world ticking over. Whereas D'Ailly hoped that, by facing the fact that the world would continue, the church would heal its recent division and carry on with what it was good at – saving souls. </p>
<p>Like D'Ailly, these messages from ancient star gazers tapped into an innate human desire: to gain a sense of control in a world of disorder. Something to hold on to when doubts formed about the road ahead.</p>
<p>Of course, human history is filled with foreboding about the future – and 2016 has shown us that the world is still full of surprises. So while these days we’re not all looking to the skies for an explanation of worldly happenings – like our ancestors did – perhaps we can look to the past to understand people’s desire to make reason out of the unreasonable.</p>
<p>And while astrology has a <a href="http://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/astrology_checklist">somewhat problematic relationship</a> with modern science, my own prediction is that the year 2017 looks set to be as turbulent as any. So perhaps D'Ailly was on to something when he suggested we just try to do our best.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karl Kinsella does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Up until the seventeenth century, astrology was seen as a scholarly tradition, and it is credited as influencing the development of many modern day subjects.Karl Kinsella, Lecturer in Medieval Art and Architectural History, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/703012016-12-23T08:43:07Z2016-12-23T08:43:07ZWhat the magi had in common with scientists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149681/original/image-20161212-26074-rv9pu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">G. Campbell/shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Picturesque and exotic, with their crowns and camels, the three kings regularly appear on Christmas cards and in nativity scenes. But how much is original, and how much is later addition for the sake of a good story?</p>
<p>All we know is what Matthew’s gospel tells us, and that does not include their number. They brought gifts of gold, frankincense and myrrh, but to suppose that three gifts means three givers is no more than a guess. More importantly, they were not kings. In his <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+2%3A1-22&version=ESV">account</a> Matthew consistently describes the visitors as <em>magoi</em> which is the same as the English word “mage”. It’s an unusual word and is often translated as “wise men”. </p>
<p>The early church upgraded them to royal status, perhaps because of descriptions in <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Isaiah+60">Isaiah 60</a> and <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm+72">Psalm 72</a> of kings worshipping the messiah – but Matthew himself, whose gospel is full of references back to the psalms and prophets, does not make this link, and he would never have let such an opportunity drop. </p>
<h2>What they saw</h2>
<p>They had seen a star, which shows they were astronomers – or astrologers as there was no difference back then. What was this star? Some scholars have posited that in 7BC there <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Bible_as_History.html?id=U1Kul4eWYp0C&source=kp_cover&redir_esc=y&hl=en">was a triple conjunction</a> (when the planets catch up and overtake each other: quite a dramatic sight) of Jupiter and Saturn, in the constellation of Pisces. These three elements were linked in astrology to royalty, the messiah and the Jews respectively. </p>
<p>Some astronomers, for example <a href="https://books.google.co.vi/books/about/The_star_of_Bethlehem.html?id=iOSxAAAACAAJ">Patrick Moore</a>, are unhappy with this theory and suggest that the star the wise men followed was a nova, a comet, or meteors. But there is no firm evidence for any of these. They point out that conjunctions are rare but not unique, and ask why were there no emissaries to Israel on other occasions. Perhaps there were – we only have this single record because of its link to the larger story. </p>
<p>I think what really worries them is that if you accept this interpretation it implies accepting the validity of astrology, and today’s astronomers really hate astrologers (never ask an astronomer what their star sign is). But you don’t have to. Even the sceptical can accept that a visit to Jerusalem and Bethlehem by foreigners looking for the messiah would have made a good story which would be told and retold – and eventually get attached to the birth of Jesus. Matthew wrote his gospel for a Jewish readership, and the Jewish religion then was hostile to astrology, so the suggestion that he just made up the story as propaganda is implausible. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149684/original/image-20161212-26074-bid585.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">No nativity scene would be complete without them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/castorgirl/8312668792/sizes/l">scepticalview/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>A familiar approach</h2>
<p>We can imagine the situation. The star was not a surprise: conjunctions are predictable – today lists of upcoming ones are <a href="http://www.derekscope.co.uk/conjunction-of-planets-in-years/">available on the internet</a> – and even if this was not available 2,000 years ago, astronomers then made careful observations on which they could make predictions using <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/edexcel/visiblelight_solarsystem/ideas_solar_systemrev1.shtml">geocentric theories</a> which were fundamentally wrong but which nevertheless seemed to work. </p>
<p>For months and years beforehand the “wise men” will have discussed and organised the expedition: the practicalities, the funding. We know how they must have felt, planning a project, looking for money to pay for it, arguing whether their theory’s predictions were really firm or could have some other interpretation. </p>
<p>At this point we realise that we have a better word to translate <em>magoi</em> – a word not available to the translators of the Authorised Version of the Bible in King James’ reign, as it was only <a href="http://www.historyofinformation.com/expanded.php?id=1556">invented in 1833</a>. </p>
<p>The word is scientists.</p>
<p>Looking back 2,000 years, they and we are not so different. They used their understanding of the universe to predict what would happen in the world – and, working as a group, they investigated their predictions, despite the cost and trouble and hardships. This is something any scientist today can recognise and identify with. Their understanding of the universe is crude and primitive in our eyes – but what will today’s scientific theories look like in 2,000 years time?</p>
<p>So, when we see pictures of the three kings at Christmas, we should spare them a thought, as colleagues who believed in their theories and followed through the consequences, despite the trouble and expense and personal effort involved. The strength of their conviction and their resolution to follow it, 2,000 years ago, can be an example to us today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Barlow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even the sceptical can admire the determination of the wise men.Roger Barlow, Research Professor and Director of the International Institute for Accelerator Applications, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/286422014-07-01T16:36:53Z2014-07-01T16:36:53ZSome people think astrology is a science – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52760/original/syhhd96w-1404209250.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Your lottery is due, say the zodiac signs on the tarot card.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kvijesh/7398764674/">kvijesh</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people reading this article will have also read their horoscope at least once. Even though scientific studies have never found evidence for the claims astrologers make, some people still think astrology is scientific. We are now beginning to understand why, and people’s personalities might have something to do with it.</p>
<p>Astrology columns are widespread and have been around for a surprisingly long time. One of the earliest recorded columnists was 17th century astrologer William Lilly, who was reputed to have <a href="http://archive.museumoflondon.org.uk/Londons-Burning/objects/record.htm?type=object&id=501732">predicted the Great Fire of London</a>, albeit 14 years too early.</p>
<p>The idea behind astrology is that stars and planets have some influence on human affairs and terrestrial events. And horoscopes are an astrologer’s foretelling of a person’s life based on the relative positions of stars and planets.</p>
<p>These forecasts are regularly read around the world. According to the <a href="http://www.wellcome.ac.uk/About-us/Publications/Reports/Public-engagement/WTX058859.htm">Wellcome Trust Monitor Survey</a>, 21% of adults in Britain read their horoscopes “often” or “fairly often”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52772/original/9c3zjxb7-1404220739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Undoubtedly many people read their horoscopes just for entertainment value, or as a topic for conversation. But some people attach scientific credence to astrological predictions and regard astrology as a valid way of understanding human behaviour. A <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Astrology-Superstition-H-J-Eysenck/dp/0851172148">surprisingly</a> large <a href="http://muller.lbl.gov/papers/Astrology-Carlson.pdf">quantity</a> of <a href="http://www.susanblackmore.co.uk/Articles/Correl01.htm">scientific research</a> has been carried out to evaluate the claims of astrology over the past 40 years. There is no evidence to support such claims.</p>
<p>It should then be a cause for concern if citizens make important life decisions based on entirely unreliable astrological predictions. For instance, people may decide for or against a potential marriage partner based on astrological sign. This happens <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/hindi/bollywood/news-interviews/Astrologers-decoding-fate-of-controversial-celebs/articleshow/28342083.cms">quite often</a> in India. Some may make <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1221957.stm">rash financial decisions</a> based on predicted good fortune.</p>
<p>Reassuringly, it turns out that the number of people in Britain who think that horoscopes are scientific is small. From the Wellcome Trust Monitor survey, we know that less than 10% think horoscopes are “very” or “quite” scientific. And a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_224_report_en.pdf">similar proportion</a> thinks the same across the European Union as a whole.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=190&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52774/original/v4x2h9ff-1404220911.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>However, if we ask people whether they think astrology is scientific, we see a different picture. In a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_224_report_en.pdf">Eurobarometer survey</a> of attitudes towards science and technology, a randomly selected half of respondents were asked how scientific they thought astrology was. The other half were asked the same question about horoscopes. </p>
<p>The results shows a surprising disparity in opinion. More than 25% think that astrology is “very scientific” compared to only 7% for horoscopes. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52796/original/2bzq59kb-1404228831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>In <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1860385">research</a> I carried out a few years ago, I tested the hypothesis that people get confused between astrology and astronomy, and it is this that could account for widespread apparent belief in the scientific status of astrology. Even well-respected national newspapers have been known to make <a href="https://twitter.com/gleet_tweet/status/395820711375552512/photo/1">this mistake</a>. </p>
<p>My survey also asked people how scientific they believed various activities to be. One of these was astronomy. Using a statistical technique known as regression analysis, I discovered, after adjusting for age, gender and education, that people who were particularly likely to think that astronomy was very scientific were also very likely to think the same about astrology. This points to semantic confusion about these terms among the general public.</p>
<p>In the same study, I was interested to look at other explanations for why some Europeans think astrology is scientific and others do not. The first explanation I looked at was people’s level of education and their knowledge about science. </p>
<p>If one does not have an adequate understanding, it might be difficult to distinguish between science and pseudoscience. So it turns out to be. When taking a wide range of other factors into account, those who have a university degree and who score highly on a quiz tapping scientific knowledge are less likely to think that astrology is scientific.</p>
<p>In line with previous studies, women are more likely than men to think astrology is scientific, regardless of their level of education and knowledge about science. Those who believe in God or a “spirit of some kind” are also more likely to find astrology a scientifically credible activity.</p>
<h2>Take things as they are</h2>
<p>The most interesting result, however, is based on an idea proposed more than 50 years ago by the German sociologist Theodore Adorno. In 1952, Adorno carried out a <a href="http://www.telospress.com/adorno-on-astrology/">study</a> of a Los Angeles Times astrology column. He is witheringly critical of astrology, dubbing it, with the rest of occultism, a “metaphysic of dunces”, <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=BG-BAgAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">suggesting</a> “a climate of semi-erudition is the fertile breeding ground for astrology”. </p>
<p>What is particularly interesting, though, is the connection drawn between astrology with authoritarianism, fascism and modern capitalism (remember that this was in the aftermath of WWII and the Holocaust). For Adorno, astrology emphasised conformity and deference to higher authority of some kind. As some researchers <a href="http://socrel.oxfordjournals.org/content/42/4/325.abstract">put it</a>: “Take things as they are, since you are fated for them anyway”. In short, <a href="http://www.denisdutton.com/adorno_review.htm">Adorno believed</a> that “astrological ideology” resembles “the mentality of the authoritarian personality”.</p>
<p>People high on authoritarianism tend to have blind allegiance to conventional beliefs about right and wrong and have high respect for acknowledged authorities. They are also those who are more favourable towards punishing those who do not subscribe to conventional thinking and aggressive towards those who think differently. </p>
<p>If this hypothesis is correct, then we should see that people who value conformity and obedience will be more likely to give credence to the claims of astrology. In the Eurobarometer survey, there was (by chance) a question that asked people how important they thought “obedience” was as a value that children should learn.</p>
<p>I used this question as a rough and ready indicator of whether a survey respondent was more or less authoritarian in their outlook. And, again, I used regression analysis to see if there was a link between people’s answers to this question and what they thought about astrology. In line with Adorno’s prediction made in 1953, people who attach high importance to obedience as a value (more authoritarian) are indeed more likely to think that astrology is scientific. This is true regardless of people’s age, education, science knowledge, gender and political and religious orientations. </p>
<p>So, on one hand, it seems that horoscopes and astrological predictions are, for most people, just a bit of harmless entertainment. On the other, the tendency to be credulous towards astrology is at least partially explained by what people know about science – but also what kind of personality traits they have. And these factors might prove useful in understanding beliefs about a whole range of pseudoscientific fields.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28642/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Allum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most people reading this article will have also read their horoscope at least once. Even though scientific studies have never found evidence for the claims astrologers make, some people still think astrology…Nick Allum, Professor of Sociology, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221842014-01-31T01:28:46Z2014-01-31T01:28:46ZWhere is the proof in pseudoscience?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39820/original/72tgbqx4-1390530630.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Science or pseudoscience?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Aff (formerly Odd Bod)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The word “pseudoscience” is used to describe something that is portrayed as scientific but fails to meet scientific criteria.</p>
<p>This misrepresentation occurs because actual science has creditability (which is to say it works), and pseudoscience attempts to ride on the back of this credibility without subjecting itself to the hard intellectual scrutiny that real science demands.</p>
<p>A good example of pseudoscience is homoeopathy, which presents the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/14754916">façade</a> of a science-based medical practice but <a href="http://edzardernst.com/2012/11/the-ultimate-proof-of-homeopathys-effectiveness/">fails to adhere</a> to scientific methodology.</p>
<p>Other things <a href="http://www.skeptics.com.au/about/us/things-we-are-sceptical-of/">typically branded pseudoscience</a> include astrology, young-Earth creationism, iridology, neuro-linguistic programming and water divining, to name but a few.</p>
<h2>What’s the difference?</h2>
<p>Key distinctions between science and pseudoscience are often lost in discussion, and sometimes this makes the public acceptance of scientific findings harder than it should be.</p>
<p>For example, those who think the <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/06/come-in-spinner-the-plural-of-anecdote-isis-not-data/">plural of anecdote is data</a> may not appreciate why this is not scientific (indeed, it can have a proper role to play as a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-15/scientists-to-test-anecdotal-evidence-of-a-derwent-dolphin-revi/5202094">signpost for research</a>).</p>
<p>Other misconceptions about science include what the <a href="https://theconversation.com/listen-and-learn-the-language-of-science-and-scepticism-6633">definition of a theory</a> is, what it means to prove something, how statistics should be used and the nature of evidence and falsification.</p>
<p>Because of these misconceptions, and the confusion they cause, it is sometimes useful to discuss science and pseudoscience in a way that focuses less on operational details and more on the broader functions of science. </p>
<h2>What is knowledge?</h2>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39846/original/m6xjwk23-1390539182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Testing the knowledge.</span>
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<p>The first and highest level at which science can be distinguished from pseudoscience involves how an area of study grows in knowledge and utility.</p>
<p>The philosopher <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/160445/John-Dewey">John Dewey</a> in his Theory of Inquiry said that we understand knowledge as that which is “so settled that it is available as a resource in further inquiry”.</p>
<p>This is an excellent description of how we come to “know” something in science. It shows how existing knowledge can be used to form new hypotheses, develop new theories and hence create new knowledge.</p>
<p>It is characteristic of science that our knowledge, so expressed, has grown enormously over the last few centuries, guided by the reality check of experimentation.</p>
<p>In short, the new knowledge works and is useful in finding more knowledge that also works.</p>
<h2>No progress made</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39841/original/3nxzss9w-1390537220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s all in the stars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/ dragonoak</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Contrast this with homeopathy, a field that has generated no discernible growth in knowledge or practice. While the use of modern scientific language may make it <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1475491699905143">sound more impressive</a>, there is no corresponding increase in knowledge linked to effectiveness. The field has flat-lined.</p>
<p>At this level of understanding, science produces growth, pseudoscience does not.</p>
<p>To understand this lack of growth we move to a lower, more detailed level, in which we are concerned with one of the primary goals of science: to provide causal explanations of phenomena.</p>
<h2>Causal explanations</h2>
<p>Causal explanations are those in which we understand the connection between two or more events, where we can outline a theoretical pathway whereby one could influence the others.</p>
<p>This theoretical pathway can then be tested via the predictions it makes about the world, and stands or falls on the results. Classic examples of successful causal explanations in science include our <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/david_deutsch_a_new_way_to_explain_explanation.html">explanation of the seasons</a>, and of the <a href="http://www.nature.com/scitable/topic/genes-and-disease-17">genetic basis</a> of some diseases.</p>
<p>While it’s true that homoeopathy supporters <a href="http://www.britishhomeopathic.org/how-does-homeopathy-work/">try very hard</a> to provide causal explanations, such explanations are not linked to more effective practice, do not provide new knowledge or utility, and so <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2010/192/8/homeopathy-what-does-best-evidence-tell-us">do not lead to growth</a>.</p>
<p>In the same way, supporters of <a href="http://www.neurolinguisticprogramming.com/">neuro-linguistic programing</a> claim a causal connection between certain neurological processes and learned behaviour, but <a href="http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/ppb.2010.41.issue-2/v10059-010-0008-0/v10059-010-0008-0.xml">fail to deliver</a>, and astrologists offer <a href="http://www.astrologer.com/tests/basisofastrology.htm">no coherent attempt</a> to provide an explanation for their purported predictive powers.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Q03YJVpm2J8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What is neuro-linguistic programing?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lack of testable causal explanations (or models, if you will) that characterises pseudoscience gives us a second level of discrimination: science provides casual explanations that lead to growth but pseudoscience does not. </p>
<h2>Operational aspects of science</h2>
<p>The third level of discrimination is where most of the action between science and pseudoscience actually takes place, over what I earlier called the operational details of science. Getting these details right helps deliver useful causal explanations.</p>
<p>This is where battles are fought over what constitutes <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientific-evidence-what-is-it-and-how-can-we-trust-it-14716">evidence</a>, how to properly use statistics, instances of <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/l/list_of_cognitive_biases.htm">cognitive biases</a>, the use of proper methodologies and so on.</p>
<p>It is where homeopathy <a href="http://www.indiana.edu/%7Eensiweb/lessons/conf.bias.article.pdf">relies on confirmation bias</a>, where the anti-vaccine lobby is energised by <a href="http://nocompulsoryvaccination.com/2012/11/21/2142/">anecdotes</a>, and where deniers of climate science selectively <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/an-analysis-of-climate-change-denial/2950084">highlight agreeable data</a>.</p>
<p>This level is also where the waters are muddiest in terms of understanding science for much of the population, as seen in comments on <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/nyt-journalist-revkin-disappears.html">social media posts</a>, letters to the editor, <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/03/22/media-watch-on-the-unbalanced/">talkback</a>, television, <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/climate-damage-doomsdayers-have-led-to-a-surge-in-hocus-pocus-ideas/story-e6frezz0-1226619889625">media articles</a> and <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antiscience-beliefs-jeopardize-us-democracy/">political posturing</a>.</p>
<h2>The knowledge is out there</h2>
<p>It is important to address these basic operational understandings, but we must also highlight, in both science education and science communication, the causal explanations science provides about the world and the link between these explanations and growth in knowledge and utility. </p>
<p>This understanding gives us better tools to recognise pseudoscience in general, and also helps combat anti-science movements (such as young-earth creationism) that often masquerade as science in their attempt to play in the same rational arena. </p>
<p>A vigorous, articulate and targeted offence against pseudoscience is essential to the project of human progress through science, which, as <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/einstein/philos1.htm">Einstein reminds us</a>, is “the most precious thing we have”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Ellerton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The word “pseudoscience” is used to describe something that is portrayed as scientific but fails to meet scientific criteria. This misrepresentation occurs because actual science has creditability (which…Peter Ellerton, Lecturer in Critical Thinking, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/12352011-05-12T21:15:48Z2011-05-12T21:15:48ZAltered mind this morning? Hehe, just blame the planets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1056/original/2000px-Mr_Pipo_02_Mind.svg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is your stress from Venus, your pressure from Mars? Not likely.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Today, and for the next month, four major planets are aligned above us: Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter.</p>
<p>Are we interested? Of course we are.</p>
<p>From the very beginning of human history we’ve been obsessed by the position of celestial objects in the sky. This was for very good reason. Sky positions of the sun and moon were used extensively in prehistory to predict changes of season. </p>
<p>The most famous ancient monolith dedicated to this task is probably Stonehenge. Our fascination for building giant stone calenders was for very practical reasons.</p>
<p>Agriculture and farming practices depend on the seasons, so it’s no wonder that predicting celestial events became a powerful lore. So much so that our ancient celestial links remain with us today in various pseudo sciences and astrology. </p>
<p>But surely we live in enlightened times? </p>
<p>We have Facebook, the internet and digital TV to inform us of the realities of life and the workings of the universe. Despite this wealth of knowledge, most (OK, many …) people today don’t understand the distinction between astronomy and astrology.</p>
<h2>Worlds apart</h2>
<p>Astronomy is about understanding the universe and its contents based on physical law, or rather a set of rules which are hopefully self-consistent. </p>
<p>Astrology, on the other hand, attempts to predict how the universe influences our lives – that’s you and me, people – via the positions of the planets and stars in the night sky. </p>
<p>How can the positions of the planets, millions of kilometers from Earth, induce brain altering emotions such as grumpiness, happiness or optimism? Well, maybe it all gets down to gravity.</p>
<h2>Gravity brings me down</h2>
<p>The “experts” say that, just as the moon causes ocean tides on Earth, so does the gravitational influence of other planets. Not entirely unreasonable, given all planets have mass, which is the origin of gravity. </p>
<p>Also, the so-called tidal force on a spherical body, such as Earth, from another body, such as the moon, originates from a differential force (science lingo for the force being stronger on one side of the Earth than the other). This induces a distortion of the sphere’s shape, which causes stress on the body (Earth).</p>
<p>So it appears that tidal effects from celestial bodies can cause stress here on Earth. How will this affect us physically or psychologically? Can my bad mood be blamed on celestially-induced tidal effects (CITE for short)? </p>
<p>A distortion of my brain? I believe that if I lived anywhere near a black-hole or neutron star the tidal force would be so strong my body would be stretched into a long strand of spaghetti. </p>
<p>Then I would be stressed. Back to Earth. What if all the planets, or at least the big ones, lined up with the Earth – just as they have, you know, this very morning! This must be cause for concern! Aaarrrgghhh!</p>
<h2>You can’t force me</h2>
<p>The problem is that CITE should be very, very, tiny for a planetary alignment, mainly because the tidal force is inversely proportional to the distance cubed to the other planet. </p>
<p>To put things in perspective, the estimated tidal force on Earth from Venus, which has the strongest influence apart from the sun, induces a tidal force only 0.005% of that of the moon tide. </p>
<p>Put another way, I am living with a CITE from the moon that is 100,000 times more powerful than Venus! Funny thing is I never noticed I’m being stressed from the moon.</p>
<p>I have to conclude we humans have evolved over millenia to deal with CITE stress from the Moon. The biggest influence planetary alignment will have on our lives is dealing with the stress of listening to the growing fringe of CITE believers. </p>
<p>I read my stars this week and they said my intolerant attitudes would cause me stress this week … hmm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/1235/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Coward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Today, and for the next month, four major planets are aligned above us: Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter. Are we interested? Of course we are. From the very beginning of human history we’ve been obsessed…David Coward, ARC Future Fellow; Ass Prof., The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.