tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/bulgaria-4989/articlesBulgaria – The Conversation2022-07-19T15:28:13Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1868982022-07-19T15:28:13Z2022-07-19T15:28:13ZWhy North Macedonia is the European Union’s latest self-inflicted wound<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474645/original/file-20220718-77396-tkzugi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3726%2C2367&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the Levica party march on a government building during a protest in Skopje, North Macedonia, on July 6, 2022. Thousands of people marched for several nights after French President Emmanuel Macron announced a proposal to enable the country's admission into the EU that many North Macedonians find controversial.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Boris Grdanoski)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-north-macedonia-is-the-european-union-s-latest-self-inflicted-wound" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The European Union has faced multiple policy crises during the first half 2022. These crises range from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-tells-hungary-poland-step-up-their-democracy-game-2022-07-13/">internal matters</a> to the foreign policy quagmire that is <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1621705/european-union-members-russia-ukraine-latest-news-ont">Russia’s invasion of Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>The EU seeks to address these issues primarily through <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/05/24/the-russia-ukraine-war-must-be-the-impetus-for-a-new-eu-enlargement-and-neighbourhood-policy/">its continued expansion</a>. Unfortunately for the EU, one of the 19th century’s foreign policy complications is threatening to undo this work. It’s known as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Macedonian-Question">Macedonian Question</a>.</p>
<p>The Macedonian Question — in essence, the debate over what constitutes Macedonian identity — was allegedly solved in 2019 with <a href="https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/news/local/ratification-of-prespes-agreement-terminated-an-unnecessary-conflict-anastasiades-says/">the Prespes Agreement</a> between North Macedonia and Greece that ended the ongoing dispute between the countries.</p>
<p>Greek politicians claimed for decades that their northern neighbour, by calling itself Macedonia, was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444327519.ch27">appropriating the legacy of Alexander the Great, which they consider part of their cultural heritage</a>. In exchange for North Macedonia adding the word “north” to its name, Greece ended its diplomatic blockade against the country. </p>
<p>North Macedonia’s path to EU membership seemed assured until an old irritant in the Macedonian Question re-emerged: Bulgaria.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Several blue and white flags frame a statue of Alexander the Great." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474687/original/file-20220718-76291-f2znn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A statue of Alexander the Great is seen among Greek flags during a rally in northern Greece in 2018 to demand the Greek government take a tough stance with Macedonia over the latter country’s name.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Giannis Papanikos)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The role of Bulgaria</h2>
<p>Greece may have ended its political embargo of North Macedonia, but it’s not the only country involved in the Macedonian Question. Since Bulgaria became a country in 1878, it has regarded <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2021/10/06/bulgaria-tells-north-macedonia-to-stop-erasing-bulgarians/">ethnic Macedonians as Bulgarian</a>. Nevertheless, when what became <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/North-Macedonia/Independence">North Macedonia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991</a>, relations between Macedonians and Bulgarians were, if not warm, at least functional.</p>
<p>The international community, in fact, frequently <a href="https://mk.usembassy.gov/bulgaria-macedonia-sign-treaty-friendship/">trumpeted Bulgaria’s approach to relations with North Macedonia</a> as an example of how differences between neighbours can be resolved peacefully.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Bulgaria was only able to take such a stance due to Greece’s refusal to recognize a Macedonian identity. So long as Greece, a member of the European Union, opposed North Macedonia’s entry into the EU, Bulgaria could pursue normal relations with the country because EU membership requires unanimity among its members. Once Greece and North Macedonia resolved their issues, however, Bulgaria lost its Greek shield.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A bald man in a dark suit with a blue tie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474653/original/file-20220718-76232-l5lav4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bulgarian President Rumen Radev arrives for the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)</span></span>
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<p>After the Prespes Agreement, Bulgaria <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/bulgaria-blocks-eu-membership-talks-with-north-macedonia/a-55641332">initially blocked</a> North Macedonia’s progress towards EU membership unless it conceded that <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/22/biden-macedonia-bulgaria-identity-putin-nationalism/">before 1944, its history was Bulgarian</a>. Bulgaria’s president, known <a href="https://www.txtreport.com/news/2022-05-13-the-two-faces-of-rumen-radev---politics.S1gIFbh8c.html">Russian sympathizer</a> Rumen Radev, is at the forefront of these demands.</p>
<p>The EU has magnified Bulgaria’s refusal to budge on the issue. The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, inserted himself into the debate by proposing a solution that would require North Macedonia to change its constitution to <a href="https://euronews.al/en/balkans/2022/06/24/bulgaria-gives-green-light-to-macron-proposal-for-solution-with-n-macedonia/">recognize a Bulgarian minority within the country</a>. </p>
<p>Macron’s suggestion, however, demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge regarding Macedonian affairs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A grey-haired man in sunglasses holds up the Macedonian flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474637/original/file-20220718-77437-3iovre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man holds the old national Macedonia flag during a protest in front of the parliament building in Skopje, North Macedonia, on July 16, 2022. North Macedonia parliament’s majority-backed French proposal raises the country’s hopes of eventually joining the European Union amid a dispute with Bulgaria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Boris Grdanoski)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Rallying the Macedonian base</h2>
<p>Of the 120 seats in the Macedonian Assembly, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/north-macedonia-local-elections-offer-test-government-80889425">44 are held</a> by the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization—Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and its allies. </p>
<p>VMRO-DPMNE has actively opposed prior agreements with Bulgaria, as well as the Prespes Agreement. It is unforeseeable that VMRO-DPMNE would accede to Macron’s proposal, and the party is using Bulgarian demands to <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-protest-north-macedonia-readies-125046418.html">rally its base</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in glasses wearing a T-shirt marches in the street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474640/original/file-20220718-76959-a63wtc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hristijan Mickoski, centre, the leader of North Macedonia’s biggest opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE, is surrounded by supporters during a protest in Skopje, North Macedonia, on July 6, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Boris Grdanoski)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Macedonian nationalists form the basis of the resistance to the French proposal, they are not alone. North Macedonia has made substantial efforts to be accepted by the international community, reaching deals — including the Prespes Agreement — that other countries would probably not tolerate due to sovereignty concerns.</p>
<p><a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2022/07/11/anger-over-french-proposal-fails-to-shake-north-macedonias-ethnic-peace/">Frustration on the part of North Macedonians of all political stripes is reaching a boiling point</a>. Unless the issue is resolved soon, the EU faces the real possibility of losing a potential member. In that case, it’s possible North Macedonia will turn to Russia.</p>
<p>This development could not occur at a worse time for the EU. The EU has sought to present a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220209-eu-leaders-present-united-front-after-talks-on-ukraine-crisis">united front</a> in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<p>Not only are EU leaders pressing for harmony among their fellow states — a challenging proposition in the best of times — but efforts are underway to accelerate the ascension of Europe’s non-EU states <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-eu-brussels-1718397">to the organization</a>. Such moves, EU leaders hope, will help deter future Russian aggression.</p>
<h2>Serbia serving as an example</h2>
<p>Neighbouring Serbia demonstrates the potential problems of delaying EU ascension, and how Macron’s proposal could work against the organization’s interests.</p>
<p>Serbia, when it emerged from the rule of Slobodan Milosević and the disastrous wars of the 1990s, sought <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/13/world/europe/serbia-moves-a-step-closer-to-the-european-union.html">to join the EU</a> as a means of economic recovery and a way forward. The process, however, has not been smooth, with constant delays on the part of the EU.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A woman with short dark hair speaks into a microphone. The word Serbia is seen in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474655/original/file-20220718-4540-b3l0d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic speaks during a news conference after talks with her counterpart from Montenegro in Belgrade, Serbia, in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Serbian politicians, rightfully or wrongly, have viewed the EU as deliberately delaying their ascension. Now, as the EU seeks to unify the continent against Russia, Serbia is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/europe/serbia-russian-gas-eu-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html">actively opposed</a> to its efforts. Relations between Serbia and Russia, in fact, have improved since the start of the war. </p>
<p>Russia will likely leverage Serbian discontent against the EU. In Serbia, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-russia-serbs-march-belgrade-country-treads-ever-finer-line-between-east-west-2022-03-04/">large-scale protests in favour of Russia</a> demonstrate both the support that Russia has in the country, as well as resentment within Serbia over the EU’s treatment of their country.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bosnia-herzegovina-could-be-the-next-site-of-russian-fuelled-conflict-180745">Bosnia-Herzegovina could be the next site of Russian-fuelled conflict</a>
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<p>There’s no guarantee North Macedonia will follow the same path as Serbia. The EU, however, is creating conditions that make such a development possible.</p>
<p>Self-inflicted wounds are not new to the EU — the history of the organization, in fact, <a href="https://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/6076406-self-inflicted-wounds-dog-eu-moves-to-manage-migrant-crisis/">is rife with them</a>. But this wound in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war only serves to benefit Russia in its efforts to undermine the EU.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The EU is creating resentment in North Macedonia over its feud with Bulgaria. In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war, it will only serve to benefit Russia in its efforts to undermine the EU.James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825022022-05-20T15:47:14Z2022-05-20T15:47:14ZEurope is determined to cut fossil fuel ties with Russia, even though getting Hungary on board won’t be easy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464324/original/file-20220519-12-spl9ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4495%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An oil tank at Hungary's Duna Refinery, which receives Russian crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/worker-takes-the-stairs-outside-a-giant-tank-at-the-duna-news-photo/1240503355">Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced Europe to rethink its energy policy – especially its deep dependence on Russia for about one-third of its fossil fuel imports. The European Union is negotiating among its members over a plan to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/10/hopes-raised-for-eu-oil-ban-on-russia-despite-hungary-comparing-plan-to-nuclear-bomb">ban imports of Russian oil</a>, although questions remain about issues such as the timing of an embargo and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/eu-drops-plan-to-stop-tankers-moving-russian-oil-to-other-buyers">what kinds of transactions it will cover</a>. The EU makes decisions by consensus, so all members must agree for the plan to be adopted.</p>
<p>Russia exports large quantities of natural gas, coal, oil and fuel for nuclear reactors, but oil provides the most revenue. That income is financing Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine. Energy analysts estimate that every day Russia receives <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/stop-financing-putins-war-with-energy-imports-ukrainian-ngo-pleads/">about 600 million euros (US$635 million) in income</a> from its oil exports to western European countries.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=feqeIB4AAAAJ&hl=en">studied post-Soviet energy</a> for over 20 years. For my recent book, “<a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/russian-energy-chains/9780231197496">Russian Energy Chains: The Remaking of Technopolitics from Siberia to Ukraine to the European Union</a>,” I traced the journey of single molecules of crude oil, natural gas and coal from production in Siberia to their final use in Germany. </p>
<p>With the May 18, 2022 release of its <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3131">RePowerEU plan</a> for quickly reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels, the EU has shown that it is determined to move forward. Yet from my research in oil trade in the region I know that important technical issues will affect Europe’s ability to quickly implement an embargo on Russian oil. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eQGXrBYSKlk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Russia’s oil network is focused on exports to Europe, so an EU embargo is a serious threat to its energy revenues.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Not all oil is interchangeable</h2>
<p>EU member states have been negotiating intensely over a proposed embargo for several months. Initially, Germany – the largest economy in the EU – opposed a ban. However, Germany <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-drops-opposition-to-russian-oil-embargo-11651155915">dropped its objections in late April</a>, and now says <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/germany-to-stop-russian-oil-imports-regardless-of-eu-sanctions?sref=Hjm5biAW">it will stop buying Russian oil</a> by the end of 2022 even if the EU is unable to agree on a wider embargo.</p>
<p>Germany’s agreement left <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/04/business/eu-russia-oil-ban/index.html">Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic</a> as the main holdouts. Some of this division reflects politics. </p>
<p>Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has long criticized what he sees as <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/viktor-orban-hungary-will-stick-by-eu-budget-veto-threat/a-55819430">excessive EU intervention</a> in his country’s domestic politics. Orban has used good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin <a href="https://hungarytoday.hu/szijjarto-orban-putin-meeting-hungary-russia-cooperation-paks-sputnik/">as a counterweight</a> to the EU, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/01/hungary-election-ukraine-a-key-issue-viktor-orban">has refused to support Ukraine in any real way</a> as it defends itself against Russian aggression.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit, carrying briefing books, steps out of a car as a uniformed guard holds the door open." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464329/original/file-20220519-13937-gzvk0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban arrives at an EU summit at Versailles, France, March 11, 2022. Hungary has complied with EU sanctions on Russia, but has remained neutral in Russia’s war on Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CORRECTIONRussiaUkraineWarEUSummit/e870f2708c454372b9dae2f4012e954a/photo">AP Photo/Michel Euler</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic also have legitimate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/europe-drafts-205-billion-plan-to-wean-itself-off-russian-fuels">energy and infrastructure concerns</a>. Since the Soviet Union started exporting large quantities of crude oil to EU member states in the 1980s, oil has created a close and highly dependent relationship between Europe and Russia, particularly the former Soviet bloc countries.</p>
<p>Oil is not a generic product. Some types are sour, meaning that they have a high sulfur content, or <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sourcrude.asp">sweet, meaning low in sulfur</a>. Oil is also graded as light, which flows easily because it’s thinner and has less wax content, or dark, which <a href="https://www2.southeastern.edu/orgs/oilspill/basics.html">contains more wax and is denser</a>.</p>
<p>Sulfur is undesirable in gasoline and diesel fuel because it <a href="https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/gasoline-sulfur">increases air pollution</a> and makes vehicles’ catalytic converters less effective, so it needs to be removed during refining. Lighter oil with a low sulfur content, such as <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp">Brent crude oil from the North Sea</a>, is easier to refine and thus commands higher prices. </p>
<p>Refineries are usually designed to process a particular type of oil. Russia exports mainly Urals oil, also known as <a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/glossary/russian-export-blend-crude-oil">Russian Export Blend Crude Oil or REBCO</a>, a medium-sulfur oil blend. Refineries built during the Cold War in Soviet-bloc countries were designed to use it as a feedstock. And these countries, especially Hungary, have voiced the <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil">strongest concerns about a blanket Russian oil ban</a>.</p>
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<h2>Cold War legacies</h2>
<p>Energy transportation networks in these countries, as well as the former East Germany, also were put in place during the Cold War. Each country was set up to receive crude oil exclusively from Russia via the <a href="https://www.iaot.eu/en/oil-transport/druzhba-pipeline">Druzhba pipeline</a>, which began operating in 1964.</p>
<p>When the Soviet bloc broke apart in 1989 and 1990, former communist bloc countries – especially the land-locked Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary – were slow to develop infrastructure for importing oil via tanker because pipeline supplies from Russia were significantly cheaper. Moreover, it would have been difficult to retrofit their refineries to handle different types of oil from sources such as Saudi Arabia or the U.S. </p>
<p>These nations’ industrial and transportation sectors rely on gasoline and diesel produced in local refineries from Russian oil. And without ports, they have no ready way to receive oil shipments from elsewhere. </p>
<p>Given these challenges, it’s not surprising that Slovakia and the Czech Republic are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-05/slovakia-backs-eu-ban-on-russian-oil-but-needs-until-end-of-2025?sref=Hjm5biAW">seeking extra time</a> beyond the end of 2022, the EU’s proposed deadline, for phasing out Russian oil imports. Bulgaria, citing similar refinery concerns, is also <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil">asking for an extension</a>. And Hungary has demanded 15 billion to 18 billion euros ($16 billion to $19 billion) from the EU in <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-price-what-will-it-take-to-get-hungary-to-ban-russian-oil/">economic compensation</a> to retool its oil infrastructure – a figure that EU officials say is inflated.</p>
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<h2>Losing their energy chains</h2>
<p>European dependence on Russian oil still runs deep. And even if EU countries agree on a ban, Russia will have other willing takers for this oil – notably India, the <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-country/">world’s third largest oil importer</a>, which is already <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60783874">stocking up on Russian oil</a> at significant discount prices relative to other oil types.</p>
<p>But the debate over a Russian oil embargo also has shown that the EU is not hostage to Russia. EU members have identified conventional and renewable energy sources that they can use to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3131">replace fossil fuels from Russia</a>, at a projected cost of 210 billion euros ($220 billion) over the next five years.</p>
<p>And the EU has also shown that it can devise and reach basic consensus on new policies in record time. Its RePowerEU blueprint was developed in less than three months, and in a recent survey conducted in all EU member states, 85% of respondents <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_2784">supported reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels</a>. While it may be expensive to bring former Soviet bloc countries along, I expect this investment to pay off in the long term – not only in terms of increased independence from Russian fossil fuels, but, even more importantly, in terms of moving away from fossil fuels as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margarita Balmaceda has received funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the European Consortium of Institutes of Advanced Studies and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She chairs the Academic Advisory Board of the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen and serves on the Scientific Advisory Board of the Centre for East European and International Studies in Berlin and the Board of the Schevchenko Scientific Society of the USA.</span></em></p>Former Soviet bloc nations have reason to worry about an embargo on Russian oil, but Europeans are finally recognizing the true costs of their longstanding energy dependence on Russia.Margarita Balmaceda, Professor of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821022022-04-29T12:24:44Z2022-04-29T12:24:44ZRussia’s weaponization of natural gas could backfire by destroying demand for it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460368/original/file-20220428-12-itl2yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller at a launch ceremony for the Nord Stream gas pipeline, Sept. 6, 2011, in Vyborg, Russia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-listens-to-gazprom-news-photo/123930430">Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In December 2006, The Economist magazine <a href="https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2006-12-16">published a cover drawing</a> of Russian president Vladimir Putin, dressed like a 1930s gangster in a dark suit and fedora hat, under the headline “Don’t Mess with Russia.” Putin held a gasoline nozzle, gripping it like a machine gun. The target presumably was Europe, which relied heavily on Russia for oil and natural gas. </p>
<p>The cover story’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2006/12/13/dont-mess-with-russia">subheading</a> asserted, “Russia’s habitual abuse of its energy muscle is bad for its citizens, its neighbourhood and the world.” Today that assertion still rings true with Russia’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61237519">cutoff of natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria</a>.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RIxZX_cAAAAJ&hl=en">energy scholar</a> who has lived and worked in Europe, I know that gas is a precious commodity that is critical for industries, power generation and heating buildings – especially in northern Europe, where winters can be harsh and long. This explains why European nations import gas from many sources, but have grown to depend on Russian supplies to keep their homes warm and their economies humming. </p>
<h2>From oil embargoes to gas cutoffs</h2>
<p>The energy weapon can take many forms. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/06/05/the-1967-war-and-the-oil-weapon/">1967</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-oil-embargo">1973</a>, Arab nations cut off oil exports to the U.S. and other Western nations that supported Israel in conflicts against its Middle East neighbors. Withholding supply was a way to inflict economic pain on opponents and win policy concessions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign reading " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To reduce oil consumption, the U.S. adopted a national speed limit of 55 mph in 1974 in response to the 1973 Arab oil embargo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-sign-indicating-a-maximum-speed-limit-of-55-miles-news-photo/1318483826">Warren K Leffler/US News & World Report Collection/PhotoQuest via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Today, an oil embargo might not work as well. Oil is a fungible commodity in a global market: If one source cuts off shipments, importing countries can just buy more oil from other suppliers, although they may pay higher prices on spot markets than they would have under long-term contracts. </p>
<p>That’s possible because more than 60% of the world’s daily oil consumption is <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints">delivered by ship</a>. At any given moment, a flotilla of seaborne vessels is carrying crude oil from one point to another around the globe. If there are disruptions, the ships can change direction and get to their destinations within a matter of weeks. </p>
<p>As a result, it’s hard for one oil-producing country to prevent a consuming country from buying oil on the global market.</p>
<p>By contrast, natural gas is moved primarily by pipeline. Only 13% of the world’s gas supply is delivered by <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20gas%20outlook%20to%202050/global-gas-outlook-2050-executive-summary.pdf">tankers carrying liquefied natural gas</a>. This makes gas more of a regional or continental commodity, with sellers and buyers who are physically connected to each other. </p>
<p>It is much harder for buyers to find alternative natural gas supplies than alternative oil sources because laying new pipelines or building new liquefied natural gas import and export terminals can cost billions of dollars and take many years. Consequently, gas disruptions are felt quickly and can last a long time.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hdMjiJ5h8L0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">French and German experts debate how the European Union will respond to what leaders called energy blackmail.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The real cost of buying Russian gas</h2>
<p>European nations’ dependence on Russian energy, particularly natural gas, complicates their foreign policies. As many observers have pointed out since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, European consumers’ heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas over the decades has <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/08/europe-russia-energy-crisis-germany/">funded and emboldened Putin’s regime</a> and made European governments hesitant in the face of bad behavior. It was no accident that Russia invaded in February, when it’s coldest and European demand for gas for heating buildings is highest.</p>
<p>Because the European gas grid spans many countries, Russia’s shutoff of gas to Poland and Bulgaria doesn’t just affect those two countries. Prices will rise as gas pressures in the pipelines that run through those countries to other nations drop. The shortage will eventually ripple through to other countries further downstream, such as France and Germany. </p>
<p>If Europeans can reduce their gas consumption quickly as the heating season winds down and gas power plants are replaced with other sources, they can slow the onset of pain. Fuller use of liquefied natural gas imports from coastal terminals could also help. </p>
<p>In the longer run, the European Union is working to <a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-efficient-buildings_en">increase energy efficiency in existing buildings</a>, which are already efficient compared to U.S. buildings. It also aims to fill gas storage caverns to 90% capacity during the off-peak seasons when gas demand is lower, and ramp up local production of biomethane – which can substitute for fossil gas – derived from agricultural waste or <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1511">other organic, renewable sources</a>. </p>
<p>Building more import terminals to bring in liquefied natural gas from the U.S., Canada or other friendly nations is also an option. However, creating new fossil fuel infrastructure would conflict with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change.</p>
<p>Ramping up wind, solar, geothermal and nuclear power plants as quickly as possible to displace the continent’s natural gas power plants is a key priority for the EU. So is replacing natural gas heating systems with electric heat pumps, which can also provide air conditioning during the continent’s <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-fries-in-a-heat-wave-made-more-intense-by-climate-change/">increasingly frequent and intense summer heat waves</a>. These solutions align with the EU’s climate objectives, which suggests that Russia’s gas cutoffs might ultimately accelerate European nations’ efforts to shift to renewable energy and more efficient use of electricity.</p>
<p>All of these options are effective but take time. Unfortunately, Europe doesn’t have many options before next winter. Prospects are worse for energy customers in poorer regions, such as Bangladesh and sub-Saharan Africa, which will simply go without in the face of higher energy prices.</p>
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<h2>Will Russia’s cutoff backfire?</h2>
<p>While gas supply disruptions will undoubtedly inflict pain on European consumers, they also are hard on Russia, which badly needs the money. Currently, Putin is ordering “unfriendly” countries to <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/214515/russia-demands-payment-for-gas-in-rubles-explained">pay for Russian energy in rubles</a> to boost Russia’s currency, which has lost value under the weight of economic sanctions. Poland and Bulgaria had refused to pay in rubles.</p>
<p>Cutting off gas supplies in February would have been expensive for Russia and surely would have inspired even more backlash in Europe. By wielding natural gas as a weapon when the weather is mild, Russia can flex its petro-muscles without being too aggressive or losing too much money. The key question now is whether Europe needs Russian gas more than Russia needs revenue from European sales.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E. Webber is affiliated with The University of Texas at Austin, Energy Impact Partners (a cleantech venture firm), and IdeaSmiths LLC (a consulting company). </span></em></p>Has Putin hurt Russia by jolting Europe’s shift away from fossil fuels into high gear?Michael E. Webber, Josey Centennial Professor of Energy Resources, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1820682022-04-27T15:44:05Z2022-04-27T15:44:05ZWhy Bulgaria and Poland can withstand Russia cutting off their gas supply<p>Russian energy giant Gazprom has completely <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61237519">cut off gas supplies</a> to Poland and Bulgaria. Both countries are apparently being punished for refusing Russia’s demand that they pay for their gas in roubles. </p>
<p>Other EU countries have also refused to pay in Russian currency (doing so would <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/why-paying-roubles-russian-gas-and-oil-might-matter">provide a boost</a> to the Russian economy), but so far only Bulgaria and Poland have had their supply cut.</p>
<p>The immediate response from Poland has been that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61224804?pinned_post_locator=urn%3aasset%3a5735f8e0-1e09-4021-b93e-a769cdaad418&pinned_post_asset_id=6268cf8e6b7942142fe95b32&pinned_post_type=share&msclkid=edfb9317c63011eca9e7688f78291be8">it can “manage”</a> without Russian gas, with storage levels high and demand decreasing as the weather gets warmer. Bulgaria meanwhile, has accused Gazprom of a serious <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bulgaria-says-russia-halting-gas-supplies-would-be-breach-contract-2022-04-27/?msclkid=1bc24f53c63f11eca04ae763c6f2629c">breach of contract</a>, and is in talks with EU allies about maintaining supplies. </p>
<p>It will not be easy. For while Bulgaria can gradually switch away from Russian gas and oil, an abrupt halt will cause serious worries. Alternative supplies from the likes of Azerbaijan will not be enough.</p>
<p>In the longer term, one option is to continue with the (<a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/bulgaria-puts-end-to-belene-nuclear-project/">currently abandoned</a>) completion of Bulgaria’s second nuclear power plant near the town of Belene on the south bank of the Danube river. Along with Poland, Germany and the rest of the EU, Bulgaria will also look to increase its reliance on Norway, the Middle East and north Africa. And there will be calls across the EU to speed up a switch to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power.</p>
<p>All of these moves will do serious harm to Russia’s economy. So why is it turning off the taps? And why is it targeting these two countries in particular?</p>
<p>We can make a decent guess that the main motive is to cause economic difficulty and political division in Poland and Bulgaria, and to challenge their support for Ukraine. Vladimir Putin will no doubt enjoy treating this as an opportunity to antagonise both Nato and the EU. </p>
<p>Historically, Russia also has form in seeking to undermine the economic and political independence of these two countries. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/from-the-archive-blog/2019/jul/24/molotov-ribbentrop-pact-germany-russia-1939?msclkid=5030effdc63111eca6d2ab3840993218">A pact</a> between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany in 1939 denied the very existence of a Polish nation, and aimed to share its land. Similarly, Russia’s policy towards Bulgaria for over 100 years has been <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-kremlin-reach-bulgaria-kiril-petkov/?msclkid=0fe56f21c63211ec92341bb74e883bdd">geared towards</a> political, cultural and economic dominance. </p>
<p>By cutting off gas supplies, Russia has landed its latest economic blow against Poland and Bulgaria. But with international support, it is a blow that can be withstood. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chart showing level of dependency on Russian gas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460068/original/file-20220427-18-qhhlxv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dependency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Statista</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My own economic research into <a href="http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/files/economics/emdp2014107.pdf">social learning</a> suggests that people, as well as business and wider societies, continually adapt positively to evolving situations. </p>
<p>Part of my research involved developing an economic model which shows how populations react to economic incentives and pressures, and how this is influenced by their historic experiences. </p>
<h2>Evolutionary economics</h2>
<p>I also examined the link between how economic incentives (such as perceived costs and benefits) and social preferences <a href="https://www.mohrsiebeck.com/artikel/the-grand-experiment-of-communism-discovering-the-trade-off-between-equality-and-efficiency-101628jite-2018-0003?no_cache=1">played a role</a> in the rise and fall of communism. Put simply, we concluded that for thousands of years, human societies have evolved economically by experimenting and learning about their environment. They have become adept at responding to how it functions and changes, sometimes gradually, sometimes abruptly. </p>
<p>Applied to the situation today, the key message is that EU countries will eventually adapt to making a switch away from heavy dependence on Russian energy. This will be costly in the short run, but viable and beneficial in the long run. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-russia-has-put-the-rouble-on-a-gold-standard-but-its-unlikely-to-last-180632">Why Russia has put the rouble on a gold standard – but it's unlikely to last</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So while there will undoubtedly be energy shortages caused by Russia using gas as what the president of the European Commission <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-accused-of-blackmail-gazprom-gas-supplies-poland-bulgaria-halted?ref=upstract.com&curator=upstract.com">described</a> as an “unjustified and unacceptable … instrument of blackmail”, in the long term, everything can change with new suppliers and alternative sources. </p>
<p>Poland and Bulgaria are no longer obedient vassals of Russia. And while they will both suffer difficulties and division, they can rely on the economic support of the wealthy countries around them. Wars are ultimately won by countries who can survive hardships in an organised way, and whose economies are not brought to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cost-of-war-how-russias-economy-will-struggle-to-pay-the-price-of-invading-ukraine-178826">breaking point</a>.</p>
<p>The democratic societies of the EU and Nato, for whom freedom is an essential human value that needs to be protected, must stay united and help each other overcome Russian extortion. Luckily, human beings and most nations value freedom highly – even if it comes with a high economic price to pay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Mihailov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Democratic nations are adept at evolving to deal with economic shocks.Alexander Mihailov, Associate Professor in Economics, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1522022021-01-07T12:55:04Z2021-01-07T12:55:04ZHow the transition from communism has left Bulgaria’s elderly out in the cold<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376141/original/file-20201221-13-xq5b1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C83%2C3200%2C2360&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Deljana Iossifova</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Maria is 84. Now that she can no longer move as easily, she spends most of her time in the kitchen of the two-bedroom flat she shares with her adult son, his wife and their two teenage daughters. She sits on the sofa-bed for most of the day.</p>
<p>She used to spend the summer months in the Balkans in a small village where they had a house. There, she worked in the garden, grew fruit and vegetables. When she returned to the city with the onset of winter, she used to bring back jars of pickles and preserves to help feed the family.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A boarded up block of flats in Bulgaria." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376556/original/file-20201223-50514-1aj9ga7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A boarded up entrance to block of socialist-era housing flats in Sofia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A few years ago, when Maria’s grandsons were born in England, she had been called to Bristol to help out so her daughter could go back to work quickly. They go to school now, so her help is no longer needed. Now she waits for her pension to arrive so that she can help with the energy bills and for her son and daughter-in-law to find work so that she can buy the medicine she needs. She says she aims not to be a burden.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375559/original/file-20201216-13-k7r1bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 2: Living environment of an older person sharing a home with adult children/grandchildren and confined to one living/bedroom. August 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bulgaria is on the margins of Europe, it is one of the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=sdg_08_10">poorest member states of the EU</a>. Following 45 years of communist rule, the country was released into the free market in 1989 and has since been undergoing a series of dramatic transitions, each of which has had consequences for generations of Bulgarians. In this context, Maria’s story is not unique. In fact, it is one of the most common stories I heard when researching my book <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-60823-1#about">Translocal Ageing in the Global East: Bulgaria’s Abandoned Elderly</a>.</p>
<h2>The state safety net</h2>
<p>In Bulgaria, older people had their lives shaped by the rise and fall of the communist era between 1944 and 1989. The idea that the state would take care of everyone and everything was formative for many of them as they grew up. Now, as they grow old, they find that is not the case. </p>
<p>This is not the only way the communist state has shaped their lives. They were, for example, given jobs and homes in cities but encouraged to retain close ties with the villages of their ancestors. This strategy had several advantages: for one, urbanites had the opportunity to get away from the city easily and breathe the fresh air of Bulgaria’s mountains and valleys. More importantly, they could help bring in the crops from the fields - and take bags full of produce, such as chickens and eggs, bacon, cheese and canned goods, back to the city. This would include specialities not easily found in stores as well as staple foods, which often helped families in the city cope with ubiquitous supply shortages under the planned economy. </p>
<p>Women were fully integrated into the socialist workforce. They could enjoy some of the world’s longest maternity leave without having to worry about the security of their jobs. Once they returned to work, their children were looked after in nurseries and kindergartens provided by the state. An early retirement age also meant that generations of grandparents could devote their time to looking after grandchildren – in exchange for the security of being looked after by adult children and grandchildren in old age.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375564/original/file-20201216-19-1fk9hs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 3: Abandoned buildings in the centre of a former industrial centre in Bulgaria. August 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Transitioning to neglect</h2>
<p>Everything changed with the fall of communism and the onset of the transition era, which began in 1990. State-owned businesses closed or were sold off. Villages were left behind as younger people looked for livelihoods in cities. In turn, cities <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10545458/Ghost-towns-left-by-Bulgarians-seeking-work-in-UK.html">lost their populations to destinations abroad</a>. Younger people fled the country for the greener pastures of the west, and only a few of them returned. Fertility rates dwindled in the face of uncertainty, contributing to some of the most rapid population ageing in the world. The inability of Bulgaria’s leadership to respond appropriately to political and economic change is mirrored in <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/322891511932837431/Cities-in-Europe-and-Central-Asia-Bulgaria">unemployment rates</a> that are far higher than the European average. After 13 years as a member state of the EU, almost <a href="https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=ilc_li01&lang=en">35% of those over 65 in Bulgaria are at risk of poverty</a>.</p>
<p>Today’s older people are bearing the burden of decades of political mismanagement, out-migration and austerity. They have to make do with meagre pensions and often keep track of every penny spent. Many take up post-retirement jobs when they cannot manage to make ends meet. They have to adapt and mend the tattered homes of the socialist era to keep them habitable – a task that is particularly difficult during the winter months, when turning on the heating is tempting but not an option due to the exorbitant cost of energy in cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376558/original/file-20201223-13-17ugix5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 4: Wood-burning stove - typical in Bulgaria’s village homes. August 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the face of sometimes unimaginable hardship, Bulgaria’s older people in cities and in villages have shaken off any remaining expectations of the state. They have had to find their own ways to adapt. Perhaps a more positive legacy of the socialist way of life has been that travelling between places to live and work is the norm for this generation. They think little of travelling abroad to help out with grandchildren, as Maria did. </p>
<p>Living in this way, ageing across multiple locations in and outside Bulgaria is a common approach to coping with the burdens of ageing for a generation raised by one kind of state and abandoned by another.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deljana Iossifova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>They grew up understanding that the state would take of them into old age. But that was before communism fell.Deljana Iossifova, Senior Lecturer in Urban Studies, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1215932019-08-28T12:25:45Z2019-08-28T12:25:45ZWhy Bulgarians want to conserve Communist monuments<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289620/original/file-20190827-184252-12mdv2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Buzludja monument, Bulgaria.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/buzludja-bulgaria-july-20-2019drone-top-1462675727?src=-2-2">Todor Stoyanov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>All over the world, statues and monuments which celebrate controversial periods of history <a href="https://theconversation.com/soviet-war-memorials-in-eastern-europe-continue-to-strain-relations-with-russia-101687">are being reconsidered</a> and, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-confederate-statue-graveyard-could-help-bury-the-old-south-118034">in some cases, removed</a>. In the US, for example, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/least-110-confederate-monuments-and-symbols-have-been-removed-2015-180969254/">more than 100</a> Confederate memorials have been dismantled after becoming targets of protest and vandalism. But elsewhere, some attitudes about countries’ historical pasts are very different and, as my research in eastern Europe (specifically Bulgaria) has found, some people believe monuments which celebrate a history from which the world has moved on should be conserved.</p>
<p>There are thousands of monuments representing the Soviet and communist past in the countries formerly considered to be part of the Eastern Bloc. Bulgarian monuments in particular often celebrate fraternity and alliances (usually with Russia), and commemorate specific events such as World War II, or the liberation from the Ottoman Empire. </p>
<p>Some are monumental in size – such as the <a href="https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/founders-of-the-bulgarian-state-monument">monument dedicated to the foundation of the Bulgarian state</a> in the Shumen province, north-eastern Bulgaria – and sit in high and conspicuous locations, presiding over the surrounding landscape. <a href="https://thespaces.com/ismael-gueymard-photographs-communist-bulgarias-mountaintop-monuments/">Others stand quietly</a> on the outskirts of sleepy towns and villages. The <a href="https://opoznai.bg/view/pametnik-na-dimitar-blagoev-buzludja">memorial for Dimitâr Blagoev</a>, the founder of Bulgarian socialism, situated between the town of Kran and the Buzludzha peak in central Bulgaria, being one such example. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289603/original/file-20190827-184229-rwlbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monument to 1300 Years of Bulgaria, built above the city of Shumen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%E2%80%9E%D0%A1%D1%8A%D0%B7%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%B1%D1%8A%D0%BB%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0_%D0%B4%D1%8A%D1%80%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0%E2%80%9C5.jpg">Desitodorov/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But since the fall of communism these buildings and statues have simply been abandoned, left to the mercy of the elements, <a href="https://theconversation.com/soviet-war-memorials-in-eastern-europe-continue-to-strain-relations-with-russia-101687">and becoming victims of graffiti</a>. Today, these monuments stand silent within Bulgaria’s developing cultural landscape. For the most part, they inspire a sort of ambivalence from Bulgaria’s population. </p>
<p>This attitude of neglect is beginning to change, however. In 2015, the <a href="http://www.buzludzha-monument.com/">Buzludzha Project</a> was created with the aim of conserving <a href="http://www.buzludzha-monument.com/history">the iconic Buzludzha monument</a>. It seeks to explain, preserve and remember the building – which was once a functional event space and public museum – as well as the political context in which it was built and used. </p>
<p>Opened in 1981, the monument was created as a <a href="http://www.buzludzha-monument.com/#welcome">tribute to the socialist movement</a>“, although Bulgarian society has since become democratic. The peak on which it was constructed is linked to <a href="http://www.buzludzha-monument.com/mountain">three events which have great historical significance</a> in the country too. These are the foundation of the Bulgarian Social Democratic Workers Party in 1891, the death of Hadzhi Dimitâr in 1868 (a military commander who fought for the liberation of Bulgaria from Ottoman rule) and a World War II-era battle between partisan and fascist forces.</p>
<p>Last month, the project attracted international investment in the form of US$185,000, from the American Getty foundation. This money was donated specifically for the <a href="https://www.svobodnaevropa.bg/a/30062606.html">restoration and renovation of Buzludzha as a heritage site</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/62Qvp4y031k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But not all of the country’s communist monuments are as well known internationally as Buzludzha – and so have received little to no attention. Yet a critical factor that must be considered before any heritage site is created or restoration undertaken is the viewpoint of the country’s people. There is little point conserving a past they would rather forget.</p>
<p>To find out what the people of Bulgaria think of projects like this, I recently asked nearly 100 Bulgarians about the future of the country’s monuments. Using an online survey, I wanted to find out whether they wanted legislation to be implemented which aims to conserve and restore these monuments. I specifically asked whether they thought this should be an EU matter, rather than a state matter, due to the fact that Bulgaria does not currently have the funds needed to renovate and conserve all of its crumbling communist monuments. </p>
<p>Overall, the participants of the survey agreed that EU intervention is needed if these monuments are to be conserved (58% of respondents said they wanted it). Yet, while there was considerably divided opinion on this conservation point, the most interesting revelation from the survey was that most people considered these monuments to contribute to their sense of national identity. Even those under the age of 34 – the ones least likely to remember communism, if they lived through it at all – still felt connected to these places and recognised their role in maintaining aspects of national belonging. The monuments have become part of Bulgaria’s historical landscape and are now totems of intertwined real history and personal pasts.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287549/original/file-20190809-144862-1xvh72.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The overall results from the survey.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While this is just a small survey, the fact that a majority of people would like to see Bulgaria’s monuments conserved is important. It may very well reflect national attitudes towards more conservation plans in line with what has been proposed for Buzludzha. More ventures like it would ultimately help to maintain Bulgaria’s monuments as important historical markers, in an environment which seeks to sustain the country’s national historic legacy. </p>
<p>Bulgaria’s monuments were born out of critical historical episodes which deserve to be memorialised. By recognising the importance of these structures to the Bulgarian people’s national psyche – regardless of age and political leaning – the EU and Bulgarian government will ensure that all citizens are represented within the diversification of the national story going forward into the 21st century.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dòmhnall Crystal receives funding from AHRC.</span></em></p>As Bulguria’s iconic Buzludzha monument attracts international investment, a survey has found that the country’s people want more of their Communist monuments to be conserved.Dòmhnall Crystal, Doctoral Student of Archaeology and Ancient History, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1187092019-06-13T08:57:34Z2019-06-13T08:57:34ZChernobyl: we lived through its consequences – holidays in the fallout zone shouldn’t be a picnic<p>We were five years old when the Chernobyl disaster happened. At the time, Milka was living in the small mountain town of Razlog in the People’s Republic of Bulgaria, about 1500 km away from the disaster area. Dorina was born and grew up in a small town in the Socialist Republic of Romania, approximately 850 km south of Chernobyl. </p>
<p>Bulgaria and Romania were heavily contaminated by radioactive material from the explosion that blew the lid off reactor No. 4 at the Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Nuclear Power Plant – more commonly known as Chernobyl – in the town of Pripyat, at the time in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. While we were soon dubbed “the Chernobyl children”, the communist authorities kept Bulgarians and Romanians in the dark about the magnitude and implications of the explosion. It wasn’t until the Iron Curtain lifted that many of us would learn the truth.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1133773782605340672"}"></div></p>
<h2>Bulgaria, May Day 1986 – Milka</h2>
<p>As a Bulgarian, I don’t often think about Chernobyl, even though I study communist heritage tourism. Remembering the events of spring 1986 and my government’s mishandling of the crisis still makes me angry, but I try to maintain some emotional separation from my research. When the HBO miniseries Chernobyl aired, I expected the buzz it generated would <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2019/06/09/as-seen-on-tv-fans-of-hbo-series-flock-to-chernobyl-geiger-counters-in-hand/#3a2139fb3897">renew public interest in visiting Chernobyl</a>, and interest in the communist past in general. What I did not expect was to relive my recollection of the days after the disaster.</p>
<p>Both the Soviet and Bulgarian governments kept quiet, even while Western news agencies reported the disaster on April 26 1986. The first official announcement within the Soviet Union came on the evening of the 28th. In Bulgaria, the <a href="http://archaeologyinbulgaria.com/2018/04/26/how-bulgarias-communist-regime-hid-the-1986-chernobyl-nuclear-disaster-from-the-public-protecting-only-itself/">first brief announcement came three days after the explosion</a> on April 29.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279187/original/file-20190612-32373-w68kfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Milka’s father, Blagoy Ivanov, pledges allegiance to the flag of the People’s Republic of Bulgaria. A portrait of Todor Zhivkov – the communist leader of Bulgaria from 1954 to 1989 – looms in the background.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Family archive</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I don’t remember much about the announcement itself or the general reaction in Bulgaria. What I remember is my grandmother getting a phone call from her brother, who had connections to the upper echelons of the Bulgarian Communist Party. He warned her not to give five-year-old me any milk to drink. He gave no reason, and my family didn’t know what to make of it.</p>
<p>I remember that the Labour Day parades went ahead as usual and that all the children in my home town had to attend. <a href="https://mycentury.tv/en/bulgaria/106-chernobyl-sofia-1-may.html">We were all marching in radioactive rain</a>.</p>
<p>Once the Communist Party admitted there had been an incident at the Chernobyl nuclear plant, they reassured the Bulgarian people that things were under control and that radiation in the atmosphere and food was below dangerous levels. At the same time, the leaders of the Bulgarian Communist party were <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1991/12/12/Bulgaria-deals-with-Chernobyl-legal-fallout/9215692514000/">eating and drinking imported food and water</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279441/original/file-20190613-32317-few35u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marchers turn out for the Labour Day Parade of May 1 1986 in Sofia, Bulgaria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mycentury.tv/images/stories/bulgaria/May_Day_1986.jpg">Velislav Radev/MyCentury.tv</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>On the Romania-Ukraine border – Dorina</h2>
<p>I grew up in Romania – another child of the Chernobyl generation. Still, Chernobyl rarely invaded my thoughts – though the memories are there now, churning in the back of my mind. There’s a certain inner revulsion to most political events from those times for me. I haven’t watched the new miniseries and I’m unlikely to revive some of the personal and collective trauma by doing so.</p>
<p>In 1986, my father was a captain in the Romanian army, patrolling the border with the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. He remembers the army were on high alert in the months after the blast and they were asked to collect information from truck drivers crossing the border, to understand the unfolding situation around the disaster area. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279223/original/file-20190612-32347-14few4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dorina’s father, Ioan Buda. At the time of the nuclear disaster in 1986, Ioan was a captain in the Romanian army.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Family archive</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, the army increased the intensity of their chemical training for soldiers and officers and were given courses on how to better understand and prepare for biochemical attacks. My mother was told to avoid lying in the sun, or risk burning her skin. Only later did she realise that radioactive fallout was the real concern.</p>
<p>As I write this – decompressing my memories and digging up those of my family back in Romania – there’s still a heaviness in my chest. Milka and I channel our anxieties over Chernobyl and life in communist eastern Europe into our research. To overcome the restraints of those days, I have travelled, worked and studied in eight countries on four continents. My published work deals with <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Affective-Tourism-Dark-routes-in-conflict-1st-Edition/Buda/p/book/9781138822467">psychoanalytic theories of the death instinct</a>, trauma and nuclear tourism – the industry that monetises a fascination to visit places where nuclear accidents have laid waste to people and their communities. The Fukushima disaster of March 2011 in Japan created the most recent entry in this list of tourist hotspots.</p>
<p>Interestingly, 2011 was also the year that Chernobyl was <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/chernobyl-accident.aspx">officially declared a tourist attraction</a>. The HBO miniseries has generated interest in nuclear tourism, but this fascination with our communist history is nothing new among western tourists.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279208/original/file-20190612-32335-13zt4q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A derelict school within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, Pripyat, Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/abandoned-premises-old-school-227262961?src=jI_IWQZb3UHFDTkWCdqnlw-1-9">Separation51/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s an understandable desire among people in eastern Europe to distance ourselves from our difficult – even traumatic – past, but Chernobyl’s heritage, like most communist heritage, is as much about the past as it is about the future.</p>
<p>The HBO miniseries no doubt illuminates the cover-ups and information blackouts that characterised the early response to the nuclear disaster. The events of April 1986 warn us about the cost of lies and of what happens when regimes distort the truth to preserve their grasp on power. In today’s climate of fake news, deceit and dishonesty, Chernobyl remains a lesson from which there is still sadly much to be learnt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina-Maria Buda has received funding from the Dutch Organisation for Scientific Research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Milka Ivanova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The HBO series ‘Chernobyl’ has reignited interest among tourists to visit Pripyat, but growing up in the disaster’s shadow has made us wary.Milka Ivanova, Senior Lecturer in Tourism and Hospitality, Leeds Beckett UniversityDorina-Maria Buda, Professor of Tourism Management, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/998292018-07-18T18:46:38Z2018-07-18T18:46:38ZThe US is a whole lot richer because of trade with Europe, regardless of whether EU is friend or ‘foe’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228250/original/file-20180718-142428-1tmzpx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump and Merkel: Friends, foes or frenemies?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Trump-NATO-Summit/cef1edd9372b4fa695463faf2e375518/2/0">AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump recently questioned the value of the long-standing United States-Europe alliance. When asked to identify his “biggest foe globally,” <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-cbs-news-european-union-is-a-foe-ahead-of-putin-meeting-in-helsinki-jeff-glor/">he declared</a>: “I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade.”</p>
<p>This view is consistent with his recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-us-tariffs-will-affect-different-parts-of-the-eu-97651">turn against trade</a> with Europe but ignores the immense benefits that Americans have reaped due to the strong economic and military alliance between the U.S. and Europe – benefits that include nothing less than unprecedented <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/20798962.pdf">peace</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer-97896">prosperity</a>. </p>
<p>As such, Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/trade-wars-50746">trade war</a> with Europe and his hostility toward broader Western alliances such as NATO portend a future of diminished standards of living – as a direct result of less trade – and greater global conflict – <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=L53fR-TusZAC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&ots=Ey5rtq9LrE&sig=MKMMiEv_We3mXsRTdx-045JA_0A#v=onepage&q&f=false">indirectly due to</a> reduced economic integration. In the words of columnist Robert Kagan, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/everything-will-not-be-okay/2018/07/12/c5900550-85e9-11e8-9e80-403a221946a7_story.html">things</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/opinion/trump-nato-european-union-history.html">will</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/07/16/putin-trump/">not be ok</a>.” </p>
<p>Some of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fMoODlwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my research</a> focuses on the impact of increased international trade on U.S. standards of living, which <a href="http://gregcwright.weebly.com/uploads/8/2/7/5/8275912/rising-tide-weai.pdf">I show</a> are causally linked during the late 20th century. Most of the trade in this period occurred among rich nations and was dominated by the U.S.-Europe relationship. </p>
<p>By calling Europe a “foe,” Trump makes clear that he simply doesn’t understand why rich countries trade with one another, which, to be fair, is something that also puzzled economists for many years. </p>
<h2>Why rich countries trade</h2>
<p>Though in some ways it seems obvious why the U.S. and Europe trade with one another – some might enjoy Parmigiana from Italy, while others prefer Wisconsin cheddar – economists initially <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/12/basics.htm">had trouble</a> explaining exactly why there was so much trade among rich countries. Surely, they thought, the U.S. can produce good quality cheese at a cost that is similar to producers in Italy, and vice versa, so why would we need to go abroad to satisfy our palettes? </p>
<p>In 1979, economist Paul Krugman provided a clear answer that would eventually <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2008/press.html">win him</a> the Nobel Prize in economics. The first part of his answer was simple but important and boils down to the fact that consumers benefit from having a wide range of product varieties available to them, even if they are only small variations on the same item. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">in 2016</a> the top U.S. exports to the EU were aircraft (US$38.5 billion), machinery ($29.4 billion) and pharmaceutical products ($26.4 billion). The top imports from the EU seem almost identical: machinery ($64.9 billion), pharmaceutical products ($55.2 billion) and vehicles ($54.6 billion). Although the product categories clearly overlap, there are important differences in the types of pharmaceuticals and machinery that are sold in each market. Consumers benefit from having all these options available to them. </p>
<p>The second part of Krugman’s answer was that, by producing for both markets, companies in Europe and the U.S. could reap greater economies of scale in production and lower their prices as a result. This has been found to indeed <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/Economics/courses/boileau/4309/Paper%203.pdf">be what happens</a> when countries trade. And more <a href="http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/Feenstra_Weinstein_jpe.pdf">recent research</a> has shown that increased foreign competition can also lower domestic prices. </p>
<p>These benefits have been quantified. For instance, the gains to the U.S. from new foreign product varieties and lower prices over the period 1992 to 2005 were equal to <a href="http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/Feenstra_Weinstein_jpe.pdf">about one percent of U.S. GDP</a> – or about $100 billion. </p>
<p>In short, Krugman’s answer emphasized the extent to which international trade between equals increases the overall size of the economic pie. And no pie has ever grown larger than the combined economies of the U.S. and Europe, which now <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/">constitute</a> half of global GDP.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pfizer Inc. is headquartered in New York. Both the U.S. and the EU import and export pharmaceuticals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/On-the-Money-Cheaper-Viagra/a7eb4d8ad5b14563b3705646a0ca8107/4/0">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Largest trading partner</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html">European Union</a> is the largest U.S. trading partner in terms of its total bilateral trade and has been for the past several decades.</p>
<p>Overall, the U.S. <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">imported $592 billion</a> in goods and services from the EU in 2016 and exported $501 billion, which represents about 19 percent of total U.S. trade and also represents about 19 percent of American GDP. </p>
<p><iframe id="t6bEs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t6bEs/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A key feature of this trade is that <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/">almost a third of it</a> happens within individual companies. In other words, it reflects multinational companies shipping products to themselves in order to serve their local market, or as inputs into local production. This type of trade is critical as it serves as the backbone of a <a href="http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/4262/EU-US_trade_and_investment_talks:_Why_they_matter.html">vast network</a> of business investments on both sides of the Atlantic, <a href="https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2017/12-December/1217-activities-of-us-multinational-enterprises.pdf">supporting</a> hundreds of thousands of jobs. </p>
<p>It is also a network that propels the global economy: the EU or U.S. serves as the primary trading partner for nearly every country on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ship to shore crane prepares to load a shipping container onto a container ship in Savannah, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/US-China-Tariffs/453b3c52caa348cab5bb628a37a19d3e/9/0">AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shipping and new institutions</h2>
<p>The U.S.-Europe trade relationship also laid the groundwork for the modern system of international trade via two distinct innovations: new shipping technologies and new global institutions.</p>
<p>On the technological front, the <a href="http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/history-of-containerization">introduction of the standard shipping container</a> in the 1960s set off the so-called second wave of globalization. This under-appreciated technology was conceived by the U.S Army during the 1950s and was perfected over Atlantic shipping routes. In short, by simply standardizing the size and shape of shipping containers, and building port infrastructure and ships to move them, <a href="http://eprints.brighton.ac.uk/14568/1/JIE%20accepted%20manuscript%20online%20version%20%281%29.pdf">massive economies of scale</a> in shipping were realized. As a result, today container ships the size of small cities are routed via sophisticated logistics to huge deepwater ports around the world. </p>
<p>These routes eventually made it profitable for other countries to invest in the large-scale port infrastructure that could handle modern container ships. This laid the groundwork for the eventual growth of massive container terminals throughout Asia, which now <a href="https://maritimeintelligence.informa.com/content/top-100-success">serve as the hubs</a> of the modern global supply chain. </p>
<p>At the same time that these new technologies were reducing the physical costs of doing business around the world, the U.S. and Europe were also creating <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/anthologies/2011-12-14/archives-international-institutions">institutions</a> to define new international rules for trade and finance. Perhaps the most important one was the post-war General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, which eventually became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-wto-99274">World Trade Organization</a>, creating the first rules-based multilateral trade regime. A large body of research shows that these agreements have <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/7362891.pdf">increased trade</a> and, more importantly, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/joes.12087">raised incomes</a> around the world.</p>
<p>Overall, these advancements contributed to the <a href="http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ass/article/viewFile/36581/20566">subsequent enrichment</a> of hundreds of millions of workers in Asia, Latin America and Africa by helping to integrate them into the global economy.</p>
<p>And when the world gets richer, the U.S. also benefits for many of the same reasons noted above: demand for U.S. products increases as incomes rise around the world, as does the variety of products the U.S. can import, and the prices of these goods typically fall. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cartoon Trump blimp flies as a protesters speak out against Trump’s visit to London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Britain-Trump-Visit/66460331f9b84b1c8e573d985f6c9dbd/18/0">AP Photo/Matt Dunham</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Taking the long view</h2>
<p>But it appears that President Trump sees the U.S. on the losing end of a failed relationship. </p>
<p>It is unsurprising that tensions with Europe have come to the forefront over perceived imbalances in trade, particularly for a president who is not afraid <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-go-it-alone-approach-to-china-trade-ignores-wtos-better-way-to-win-93918">to take long-time allies to task</a>. </p>
<p>This is because U.S. trade policy <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/normalizing-trade-relations-with-china-was-a-mistake/562403">has arguably been overly optimistic</a> in recent years, particularly with respect to China, whose accession to the WTO proved to be much more disruptive to labor markets around the world than was predicted. Previous U.S. administrations preferred patience over confrontation, leading to a perhaps inevitable backlash that has spilled into other relationships, such as the one with Europe. </p>
<p>However, the U.S. relationship with Europe is clearly different, primarily because it is longstanding and has been largely one of equals. But also because their shared values mean that there are many non-economic issues — such as the spread of liberal democracy and the promotion of human rights — that get advanced by the close economic ties. </p>
<p>It’s important to not underestimate what is at stake if the U.S.-Europe alliance is allowed to falter. Americans are likely in the midst of the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/we-enjoy-the-most-peaceful-period-on-earth-ever_us_57ab4b34e4b08c46f0e47130">most peaceful era</a> in world history, and global economic integration, led from the beginning by the U.S. and Europe, <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/globalisation-promotes-peace">has been</a> a key contributing factor. Global extreme poverty is also <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty">at its lowest point</a> ever, again in large part due to globalization. </p>
<p>These are the byproducts and legacies of seven decades of expanding international trade and should not be taken for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The president, who called the European Union a ‘foe’ following a series of meetings in Europe, may not realize just how much Americans have gained from their relationship with Europe.Greg Wright, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, MercedLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/804352017-07-07T05:14:36Z2017-07-07T05:14:36ZHas the EU really solved its refugee crisis?<p>Less than two years after the European Union was confronted with an unprecedented influx of refugees, <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/en-au/news/latest/2015/12/5683d0b56/million-sea-arrivals-reach-europe-2015">during which over a million</a> people from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond flooded Europe’s borders, EU officials are saying that the <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/18/europe-wishes-to-inform-you-that-the-refugee-crisis-is-over/">migrant crisis is under control</a>.</p>
<p>For this, the EU credits its March 2016 <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/03/18-eu-turkey-statement/">agreement with Turkey</a>, which was intended to curb entries into Greece via the Mediterranean Sea and end onward movement into Europe across the western Balkan route.</p>
<p>At the time, one European Commission senior policy official said, the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35854413">agreement</a>, which stipulated that Greece send back to Turkey those migrants who do not apply for asylum or have their claim rejected, was seen as necessary to “ensure the future of the EU”, where the migrant situation had become “explosive”. </p>
<p>Just over a year later, crossings on the eastern Mediterranean <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/55032">have dropped</a> from a weekly peak of 1,400 in early March 2016 to a weekly average of 27 for March 2017. The western Balkan path into Europe has seen <a href="http://frontex.europa.eu/news/fewer-migrants-at-eu-borders-in-2016-HWnC1J">a similarly significant decrease</a> in crossings, from 764,000 in 2015 to 123,000 in 2016.</p>
<h2>Solving the crisis</h2>
<p>Declarations of success have come <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/human-rights-groups-warn-eu-turkey-migrant-deal-unhcr-refugees-refoulement/">despite criticisms</a> by NGOs and experts, who have condemned the Turkey deal as an outsourcing of responsibility.</p>
<p>This tactic may have stopped refugees from reaching France, Germany and the United Kingdom, at least temporarily, but it has not resolved the crisis at Europe’s borders. </p>
<p>Crossings of the <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/57706">central Mediterranean</a>, which predominantly impact <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/56593">Italy</a>, are actually on the rise, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-greek-asylum-crisis-moving-beyond-the-blame-game-to-a-real-solution-71107?sa=pg2&sq=asylum&sr=1">stalemate over relocation</a> of refugees from Greece to Turkey, a key part of the 2016 deal, continues.</p>
<p><a href="http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/sarajevo/13436.pdf">A new report</a> by the German think tank Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) shows that EU states along the western Balkan route are systematically – and violently – pushing back migrants. This route, which was at the forefront of the 2015 crisis, remains active, but it has slightly changed: movement has been redirected from Greece to Bulgaria’s land border with Turkey. </p>
<p>In 2016, 18,000 migrants crossed into Bulgaria. </p>
<p>According to the FES report, Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia have responded to the new influx by intensifying “efforts to prevent entry into their territory”.</p>
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<p>Hungary has further restricted its asylum legislation, the report indicates, which “taken together with the physical push-backs, amount to the systematic violation of human rights” in the country, which already has the EU on edge with its ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/hungary-cracks-down-on-foreign-funding-dealing-a-harsh-blow-to-ngos-and-to-european-democracy-77185">crackdown</a> on civil liberties.</p>
<p>Attempts to forcibly close the borders in Hungary and Bulgaria have created a bottleneck in Serbia, where about 10,000 refugees and migrants are reported to be stuck. </p>
<p>Border tightening across the western Balkan region has also led to an increase in the use of illicit smuggling networks, which is precisely the problem the EU claims it is <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/irregular-migration-return-policy/facilitation-irregular-migration_en">seeking to tackle</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the stalemate on relocation has left thousands of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/03/15/greece-year-suffering-asylum-seekers">refugees trapped</a> on the Greek islands. Thus far, only <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/58003">1,000 people</a> have been sent back to Turkey.</p>
<p>With serious overcrowding and a lack of meaningful access to asylum procedures, the security situation in Greece is increasingly dire. Even with the support of EU officers, the backlog of applications remains <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/en-au/news/briefing/2015/1/54cb698d9/new-unhcr-report-warns-against-returning-asylum-seekers-greece.html">well over 30,000</a>, with one source reporting processing waits <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/12/greece-sudanese-refugee-13-year-wait-asylum-161201125100045.html">of up to 13 years</a>.</p>
<h2>Outsourcing responsibility</h2>
<p>The EU’s <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/06/22-23/">support for a possible agreement</a> with Libya, which would include training and equipping the Libyan Coast Guard to prevent departures from its shores, displays a lamentable lack of lesson-learning. </p>
<p>Italy had a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/01/eu-muammar-gaddafi-immigration">similar deal</a> with Libya in 2008, which collapsed with the Arab Spring. This directly contributed to the sharp rise in migration flows from 2011.</p>
<p>Nor is the Turkey agreement the first time that the EU has tried to outsource responsibility.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"743931575994322944"}"></div></p>
<p>The so-called <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/examination-of-applicants_en">Dublin Regulation</a>, which from 2003 designated asylum responsibility to the country of entry, quickly became unsustainable, with Italy and Greece unable to tackle the massive influx.</p>
<p>This led to a surge of migrants toward northern European countries. By the end of 2015, none of the EU’s 28 states, apart from Germany, <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/countries-rethink-commitments-to-accept-refugees-paris-attacks/">was willing to accept relocated refugees</a>. </p>
<p>By turning a blind eye to the problems that the 2016 Turkey agreement is wreaking on Balkan states, the European Commission will again struggle to formulate a cohesive shared response to the ongoing migration crisis. As one European Parliament official stated, the tendency instead has been “to try and keep the problem out of the EU as much as possible so as to not have to deal with the situation.”</p>
<p>But one European Commission policy official from the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs suggested in an interview that “containing the numbers through third country deals is a precondition” for all EU states to determine a common policy. Having “more predictable numbers”, she said, would give national governments the “breathing space” needed to sell voters on the need for a stronger, common approach to refugee arrivals. </p>
<p>But with the EU in a deadlock over the new Dublin negotiations, it is unclear whether member states can actually agree on a plan to effectively share responsibility in the continuing migrant crisis. Frontline member states are acutely concerned that the outcome of current talks may worsen the situation by <a href="https://www.ecre.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ECRE-Comments-Dublin-IV.pdf">further overburdening them</a>. </p>
<p>Inaction is not an option. Under <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/3e5f35e94.pdf">international human rights law</a>, European states are obliged to ensure safe and effective access to their territory for those fleeing persecution. It also has a <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:12012E/TXT&from=EN">legal mandate</a> to find a solution: article 80 of the <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A12012E%2FTXT">Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union</a> requires the bloc to pursue a common asylum policy grounded in the “principle of solidarity and the fair sharing of responsibility”. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://euobserver.com/migration/138216">recent decision</a> by the Commission to open sanction procedures against Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic for failing to comply with the relocation decision is a step in this direction. </p>
<p>Confronting recalcitrant member states – perhaps by cutting off access to EU funding – the bloc can halt the current <em>a la carte</em> mentality that leads states to pick and choose when they share responsibility. Because, when it comes to Europe’s migration crisis, as one European Parliament member for the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs put it, “either you get with the programme or you’re not in the club”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80435/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Less than two years after Europe’s migrant crisis began, EU officials have said that the situation is under control. It’s notTamara Tubakovic, PhD Researcher, The University of MelbournePhilomena Murray, Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences and EU Centre on Shared Complex Challenges, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/765982017-05-22T06:22:05Z2017-05-22T06:22:05ZFrom Bulgaria to East Asia, the making of Japan’s yogurt culture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169987/original/file-20170518-12260-1sd1ypn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of Japan's biggest food trends right now is Bulgarian yoghurt.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cityfoodsters/16825348346/in/photolist-7Hnu3s-8RFEtu-5DhJCb-acySnA-rCNiSS-roCSrg-rEYZsY-qG6U7-dKQSVR-geqo4-qG6Uf-5xapgq-qG6Ub-nq8NFb-iNU5aT-nq8Hrn-72Uyd5-2saFFf-5geQUe-84cs8s-8zcGZx-6oYjBp-B2G18-aa6g84-h5SHxb-RPTGwQ-6p9cep-6pdkLW-6p9cbR-48sPSp-ii81dX-4qjH69-5DhJBf-qG6U3">City foodsters/Kakigōri Kanna/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><strong>Yogurt has travelled from Bulgaria to Japan and back, channelling identities and national pride as it goes. The sixth article of our series <a href="https://theconversation.com/global/topics/globalisation-under-pressure-38722">Globalisation Under Pressure</a> charts its course.</strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Japan has a new food fad: <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11822188">yogurt</a>. Its artful display is the latest craze on Japanese tables, and yogurt is one of the trendiest foods in the country.</p>
<p>Today, millions of Japanese include yogurt in their daily diet, and the market <a href="http://www.pr.com/press-release/711253">is growing steadily</a>. And <a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/meiji-holdings/">Meiji Holdings</a>, a Japanese company that has a subsidiary specialising in dairy products, is the biggest domestic producer in an industry valued at 410 billion yen ($US3.7 billion) annually, according to a March 6 article in the online newspaper <a href="http://www.ssnp.co.jp/articles/show/1703060006758720">Shokuhin Sangyou Shinbun</a>.</p>
<p>How did yogurt go from being a food alien to the Japanese, a substance often considered distasteful or even inedible just 35 years ago, to being a daily necessity and a symbol of health and well-being?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169967/original/file-20170518-12242-1e1fvam.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plain Bulgarian yogurt has become a symbol of good health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Bulgarian_yogurt.JPG">Ned Jelyazkov/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new superfood</h2>
<p>That was the question underlying the fieldwork I conducted from 2007 to 2012, for which I examined both dairy companies and consumers (available <a href="http://www.pastoralismbg.com/other/profile.php">here in English</a> and <a href="http://www.minpaku.ac.jp/research/education/univercity/student/yotova/02">also in Japanese</a>). I traced this commodity through time and space – from Bulgaria to Japan – watching it transform. </p>
<p>I asked people: what do you think you’re actually eating when you consume yogurt? Is it a specific bacterium, a cool trend or a health-boosting substance?</p>
<p>Turns out, yogurt’s current standing in Japan as a scientifically proven, evidence-based health food was created by a sophisticated marketing campaign that brought consumers to this non-traditional product through mythologist branding.</p>
<p>Meiji’s yogurt commercials extol the Bulgarian origins of their product, presenting the eastern European nation as the sacred birthplace of yogurt. In Bulgaria, they tell consumers, dairy production is an old tradition, and “the wind is different, the water is different, the light is different.” </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Bulgaria, the sacred birthplace of Japanese yogurt.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What triggered the Japanese Meiji Bulgaria Yogurt company, which now boasts <a href="http://trendy.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/column/20090225/1024047/?SS=expand-life&FD=-310522840">43% market share and 98.9% brand awareness</a>, to invest in this product?</p>
<h2>The quest for longevity</h2>
<p>Meiji started considering how to develop Bulgarian-style yogurt for the Japanese market in the late 1960s.</p>
<p>At the time, the only type of yogurt available in Japan was a sweetened, heat-treated fermented milk with a jelly-like texture. Brands such as Meiji honey yogurt, Snow brand yogurt and Morinaga yogurt were distributed in small 80-gram jars and consumed as a snack or dessert, according to Meiji’s company history.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=674&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=674&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169965/original/file-20170518-12217-kmjo2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=674&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sweet Morinaga yogurt was around in the 1960s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.morinagamilk.co.jp/english/products/yogurt.html">Morinaga Milk</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Plain yogurt with living <em>Lactobacillus bulgaricus</em>, like what is popularly consumed in Bulgaria, did not exist. One member of Meiji’s Bulgaria yogurt project told me he still remembered the shock of trying the plain yogurt presented at the Bulgarian pavilion at the <a href="http://www.expomuseum.com/1970">1970 World Fair in Osaka</a>. It was weird, he said, and astonishingly sour.</p>
<p>But plain yogurt had a powerful draw: the promise of increased longevity. At the dawn of the 20th century, Nobel Prize-winning Russian scientist Elie Metchnikoff (1845-1916), <a href="https://webext.pasteur.fr/biblio/ressources/histoire/textes_integraux/metchnikoff/smjmetabio2009tan.pdf">developed the theory</a> that ageing was caused by toxic bacteria in the gut. He pinpointed lactic acid bacteria for its ability to neutralise these toxins and thus slow the ageing process. </p>
<p>Metchnikoff touted the unparalleled effectiveness of <em>Lactobacillus bulgaricus</em>, isolated from homemade Bulgarian yogurt, for this task and recommended eating it every day.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169983/original/file-20170518-12237-1r9sjcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Metchnikoff feeding his good bacteria to the elderly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Pr._Elie_Metchnikoff.jpg">Revue </a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That myth remains today. During my fieldwork in Bulgaria, I heard the same story many times: how powerful the local bacterium was; how it made delicious and healthy yogurt. </p>
<p>One elderly woman attributed her daughter’s recovery from breast cancer to homemade goat-milk yogurt. </p>
<p>“It is the bacillus that makes our milk, my girl”, she concluded. “It is unique. When I was young I didn’t eat much yogurt, but now that I take it every day, my blood pressure has been normal and I feel so energetic!”</p>
<h2>From inedible to irreplaceable</h2>
<p>Meiji realised that, technologically speaking, it would not be difficult to produce plain yogurt with living <em>Lactobacillus bulgaricus</em>. In 1971, the company launched its innovative product in Japan, simply calling it “plain yogurt”.</p>
<p><a href="http://qa.meiji.co.jp/faq/show/1409">Consumers hated it</a>. Some took its sourness to mean that the product had gone bad while others doubted its edibility.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169989/original/file-20170518-12217-zbgstj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yogurt was associated with good health, before good taste.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ignatgorazd/11688783725/in/photolist-7Hnu3s-8RFEtu-5DhJCb-acySnA-rCNiSS-roCSrg-rEYZsY-qG6U7-dKQSVR-geqo4-qG6Uf-5xapgq-qG6Ub-nq8NFb-iNU5aT-nq8Hrn-72Uyd5-2saFFf-5geQUe-84cs8s-8zcGZx-6oYjBp-B2G18-aa6g84-h5SHxb-RPTGwQ-6p9cep-6pdkLW-6p9cbR-48sPSp-ii81dX-4qjH69-5DhJBf-qG6U3">Ignat Gorazd /Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But Meiji persevered. In 1973, after making an agreement with the Bulgarian state-owned dairy enterprise to import yogurt starter cultures, the company received permission to rename its product Meiji Bulgaria yogurt. </p>
<p>The idea was to market authenticity, making full use of the Bulgarian rural idyll: pastoral scenery, herds of sheep and cows, bagpipers in traditional garb and healthy elderly people living in harmony with nature. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, the company combined this strategy with further microbiological research and closer cooperation with the Bulgarian side. In 1984, Japanese consumers saw a new Meiji Bulgaria yogurt with sleeker packaging, helping build its market presence. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169043/original/file-20170511-32593-1b5l7hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meiji Bulgaria yogurt in its nice new package.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">LB Bulgaricum</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meiji got another boost when it acquired the right to put the government-issued <a href="https://www.window-to-japan.eu/meiji-celebrates-40-years-of-meiji-bulgaria-yoghurt-lb81-a-foshu-product-for-healthy-longevity.html">Food for Specified Health Use (FOSHU)</a> seal on the label of its Bulgarian yogurt in 1996. Health benefits have been the focus of its yogurt branding and marketing ever since. </p>
<h2>Branding the holy land of yogurt</h2>
<p>Imbuing their Bulgarian brand with new meanings, images and values, Meiji has not only turned a nice profit but also created in Japan a beautiful picture of Bulgaria as “the holy land of yogurt”. </p>
<p>Back in Bulgaria, <a href="http://www.tbmagazine.net/statia/700-tona-blgarsko-kiselo-mlyako-na-den-se-proizvezhda-v-yaponiya.html">the media</a> is fascinated by the popularity of a Japanese-made Bulgarian yogurt. In one 2015 article, <a href="http://www.mediapool.bg/balgarskoto-kiselo-mlyako-po-kupuvano-v-yaponiya-ot-koka-kola-news232738.html">Japanese consumers</a> claimed that Meiji’s Bulgarian yogurt was more popular than Coca-Cola.</p>
<p>Almost every story about Japan, <a href="http://www.bacchus.bg/spisanie/gurme/2007/09/01/785505_da_pohapnesh_v_iaponiia">whether travelogues about dining</a> or <a href="https://dariknews.bg/novini/interviu/qponskiqt-poslanik-oshte-zhivkov-daval-za-primer-ikonomikata-na-qponiq-654696">economics articles</a>, mentions the Bulgarian yogurt success story. This narrative is even used <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=aviNCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA169&lpg=PA169&dq=elby+yogurts&source=bl&ots=7R-M0tLpy0&sig=8v7993k7KV7j_6M-TlMp1ffnlMo&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=elby%20yogurts&f=false">by companies and politicians in post-socialist Bulgaria</a> to invoke national pride. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169041/original/file-20170511-32607-d02d9d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Bulgaria, preparing yogurt from goat’s milk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Maria Yotova</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To many Bulgarians I met, the new Japanese identity of their local yogurt embodies the very spirit of Bulgarian collective traditions. At the same time, they feel more connected to the modern world by its adoption as a symbol of health and happiness in one of the world’s great economic powers. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/new-globalism-a-counterculture-that-could-redraw-the-world-map-69390">Globalisation may have shaken cultural values</a> across the world, but yogurt’s transformation has been a miraculous one, becoming a source of health and nourishment for people in Japan and a salve for the Bulgarian national soul.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria Yotova has received funding from the Graduate Univversity for Advanced Studies, Mishima Foundation, and Japan Sociey for Promotion of Science. </span></em></p>How a simple bacterium traveled across time and space to become Japan’s latest food fad.Maria Yotova, Lecturer in Food Culture, Kwansei Gakuin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679172016-10-31T16:53:24Z2016-10-31T16:53:24ZScotland’s not even close to getting on top of fuel poverty – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143829/original/image-20161030-15783-1j5j1c8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A third of Scots can't afford it. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-40214782/stock-photo-senior-woman-warming-hands-by-fire-at-home.html?src=wkLJwBKSWPLcDHD_Hcfy8A-1-0">Monkey Business Images. </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2002 Scotland <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2002/08/15258/9951">announced</a> a plan to eliminate fuel poverty, one of few countries in the world to do so. The government was supposed to have got there by the end of this month, but it hasn’t – not by a long way. The story behind what has happened helps to show why a new approach to this measure of living standards is needed, not only in Scotland but worldwide. </p>
<p>Scotland <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/warmhomes/fuelpoverty">defines</a> fuel poverty as households that must spend 10% or more of their total income to have regular and adequate heating. When this year’s figures are finalised, they <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/SHCS">will confirm</a> that well over 30% of households are still in this category. Levels also <a href="https://queenspoliticalreview.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/article-1-behind-the-definition-of-fp-p7-24.pdf">vary widely</a> across regions and households – 70% of households in the Western Isles, <a href="http://www.cas.org.uk/publications/taking-temperature">for example</a>. </p>
<p>To be fair to Scotland, many countries still don’t even recognise this living standard, or define it more narrowly. England used to recognise it, but switched to a blunter definition two years ago. This was essentially a Westminster ploy to slash the figures and attracted <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-a-definition-change-lifts-households-out-of-fuel-poverty">widespread criticism</a>. </p>
<p>The new English definition no longer <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fuel-poverty-statistics">makes</a> adjustments to people’s status based on criteria such as housing conditions and maintaining minimal indoor temperatures. Because Scotland makes these adjustments it counts more people as fuel poor, so this makes comparisons harder. England <a href="http://www.nea.org.uk/media/fuel-poverty-statistics/">recognises</a> that 11% of households are in fuel poverty, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/228m-british-households-now-living-in-fuel-poverty-9532501.html">roughly half</a> what the figure was before it was redefined. </p>
<p>It’s equally hard to compare elsewhere. <a href="https://www.cuac.org.au/consumer-a-community-resources/presentations/250-the-rise-of-fuel-poverty-as-an-australian-issue/file">Australia</a> and <a href="http://www.iut.nu/members/Australia/NewZealand/FuelPovertyinNZ_2010.pdf">New Zealand</a> focus on heating rather than fuel poverty. The EU has <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/funding/funding-and-support-programmes/eu-observatory-energy-poverty">informally linked</a> the 10% to energy needs, more in line with Scotland, <a href="http://fuelpoverty.eu/2014/06/01/measurement-in-europe-part-2/">but until</a> this is formally adopted by the EU, no one has to recognise it – or publish figures.</p>
<p>The EU data show <a href="http://fuelpoverty.eu/2014/06/01/measurement-in-europe-part-2/">wide variations</a> in fuel poverty across Europe – and these comparisons are not very flattering to Scotland. For example Denmark and Sweden are at 4% and 5% for energy poverty and Romania and Bulgaria are estimated at 24% and 31% respectively. Though before anyone writes a headline about Romania having less fuel poverty than Scotland, you have to set the east European figures against higher fuel costs in the West.</p>
<h2>The Scottish position</h2>
<p>Clearly, however, the Scottish numbers are disappointing. You can see from the graphic below that the situation has grown steadily worse since the 2002 announcement. Scotland is back in the same position as in 1996, the one previous year for which there are figures. </p>
<p>The improvement at the turn of the century was <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Doc/46951/0031675.pdf">due to</a> things like increasing incomes and employment and energy efficiency programmes. Fuel poverty got worse again because of the recession and rising energy prices, and because of the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/12/8460/322114">poor condition</a> of Scottish housing stock: 53% with disrepair to critical elements. Early schemes also targeted low-hanging fruit such as insulating buildings already in reasonable repair – and still largely do. </p>
<p><strong>Scottish fuel poverty</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143826/original/image-20161030-15783-vl1nms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: Scottish government – policy tweaks affected numbers in later years, but by fairly small amounts.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scotland’s approach to fuel poverty has been to give qualifying households grants to install insulation, new boilers and so forth. In determining who gets the grants, Scotland has been wise not to follow England’s definition-switch. All the same, it still determines eligibility by a blunt threshold formula. </p>
<p>This is underpinned by an assumption that people’s energy use rises evenly as they earn more, but <a href="http://www.cas.org.uk/spotlight/energy">it doesn’t</a>. Beyond about £50,000 household income, people start using exponentially greater amounts of resources, while the lowest-earning 20% to 30% use proportionally less than you would expect. This is because at the level that fuel poverty bites, many cut their energy use or are so indebted they are forced to. </p>
<p>This flaw means the grants are not made available to enough people at the bottom. It also overlooks the <a href="http://www.cas.org.uk/spotlight/energy">fact that</a> falling into fuel poverty makes you more vulnerable to the things that cause it, such as poor mental health or inability to find work. The longer you stay in fuel poverty the more severely these affect you and persist even after you’ve received support. The good news is that the Scottish government is <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-37751118">now looking</a> at its definition to try to better target the most vulnerable – getting it right will be the challenge. </p>
<h2>Poverty and carbon cuts</h2>
<p>Another problem is that the Scottish government assesses need for these grants in parallel to its <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Action/lowcarbon/LCITP/SEEP">schemes</a> for encouraging wealthier households to cut their carbon use at home. Both use the same <a href="http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/scotland/home-energy-scotland">national helpline</a> and have a <a href="http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/scotland/grants-loans/heeps/heeps-warmer-homes-scotland-scheme">national</a> subsidy scheme delivered by local authorities and partner organisations. They’ll formally be part of the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Action/lowcarbon/LCITP/SEEP">same scheme</a> in the coming months. Total spend at present on these interventions <a href="http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/7283/scottish-government-to-cut-fuel-poverty-funding-by-15m-claims-labour/">is just</a> £79m. </p>
<p>This double focus means Scotland doesn’t spend enough on the face-to-face meetings and house visits that people in fuel poverty need, but relies on its helpline as a first port of call. People in fuel poverty need closer support than people buying an energy-efficient boiler. If the government <a href="http://www.cas.org.uk/spotlight/energy">saw this</a> as a <a href="https://queenspoliticalreview.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/article-1-behind-the-definition-of-fp-p7-24.pdf">health and welfare problem</a> instead of an energy issue, this would become more obvious. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143913/original/image-20161031-15816-mrbf75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A welfare or an energy issue?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-180009608/stock-photo-elderly-hands-holding-british-pound-coins.html?src=wkLJwBKSWPLcDHD_Hcfy8A-1-7">John-Kelly</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Treating this under health and welfare would mean involving GP surgeries, the NHS, local authorities and housing associations. It would mean incorporating an assessment of vulnerability and an element of flexibility into when grants can be given. It would mean extending the protection to people at risk of fuel poverty and making households resilient to it once they’re lifted out. It demands that people are treated not as statistics but as human beings. </p>
<p>Finally, it hasn’t helped that some energy efficiency delivery organisations are allowed to evaluate their own services and those of other organisations. This is why a 2014 report by Citizens Advice Scotland, for which I was co-author, <a href="http://www.cas.org.uk/spotlight/energy">recommended</a> that schemes had an independent formal evaluation element built in. At least this is one part of the problem that should be simple to solve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The article is based on the findings of projects funded by the Scottish Government, the Eaga Charitable Trust and Citizens Advice Scotland. Keith Baker was the lead author of a review of the Scottish Government’s Energy Assistance Package in 2014, <a href="http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/warmhomes/fuelpoverty">http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/warmhomes/fuelpoverty</a></span></em></p>Scotland’s failure to meet target illustrate a worldwide problem - the right to adequate heating and energy is not being properly recognised.Keith Baker, Research Associate in Sustainable Urban Environments, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/557772016-03-04T16:36:41Z2016-03-04T16:36:41ZWe’re unsure if e-cigarettes are harmful, but it still makes sense to restrict them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113870/original/image-20160304-17740-1b5kho6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Puff the magic drag-in </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=vaping&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=273544346">Neil Lockhart</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>E-cigarettes have rapidly risen in popularity in recent years and are now the subject of heated debate as to whether they are effective in helping smokers quit tobacco or whether they are actually making smoking attractive to young people. Are they a way for Big Tobacco to protect its profits in markets where smoking is declining and lure people back into nicotine addiction or are they just a fashion that will quickly lose its appeal?</p>
<p>Given that vaping has been around for barely a decade and studies into the long-term effects take time, we cannot answer these questions with certainty yet. The benefits of e-cigarettes’ continue to be debated – and the potential risks to non-smokers and young people remain under-explored. </p>
<p>This makes it difficult to make recommendations, but politicians across the world are nonetheless having to decide what to do. The latest country to confront this question is Scotland, where the parliament <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35714360">has just</a> voted to ban under-18s from using e-cigarettes. One of a raft of restrictions, this imposes the same age limit as for traditional cigarettes, bringing Scotland broadly into line <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25900542">with England and Wales</a>. Was it the right thing to do?</p>
<p><a href="http://globaltobaccocontrol.org/e-cigarette/countries">Different countries</a> have taken different approaches to vaping. Canada has technically made sales illegal, though regulation remains largely unenforced. While regulation across the US is mixed, San Francisco has <a href="http://goldengatexpress.org/2016/03/03/san-francisco-raises-age-to-buy-tobacco-to-21/">just raised</a> the minimum buying age from 18 to 21 years. </p>
<p>In some European countries, – among them Bulgaria, Ireland and Poland – sales and advertising are unregulated. In May, however, <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/health/tobacco/products/revision/index_en.htm">new EU regulations</a> will impose standardised quality control on liquids and vaporisers across the union as well as requiring disclosure of ingredients in vaping liquids and child-proofing and tamper-proofing for liquid packaging. They will also restrict cross-border advertising. Wales meanwhile <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35717379">looks likely to</a> extend its restrictions by introducing a ban on e-cigarettes in public places. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113873/original/image-20160304-17744-13xte2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There’s a storm a-comin’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/antjeverena/16738557929/in/photolist-oqzS8z-mC19Xt-E2fKh2-EzFyUn-EzJwkP-Epd4X5-Epgfqo-E7UPw9-EqNx3x-ExiMTq-fF7ZU1-DExUEZ-DCcLw7-CH3gmh-DCeqry-D71grD-rv8u7n">antjeverena</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ayes and the noes</h2>
<p>In the run up to the vote on the new <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_Bills/Health%20Tobacco%20Nicotine%20etc.%20and%20Care%20Scotland%20Bill/SPBill73BS042016.pdf">Scottish Health Bill</a>, opponents and supporters of e-cigarette regulations fiercely debated which approach was the most sensible. Opponents usually argue that vaping is less harmful than traditional cigarettes and effective in helping smokers to quit. They want minimal restrictions on availability and complete freedom for advertising, promotion and the use of e-cigarettes in public. Restrictions, they argue, might prevent smokers from switching to safer alternatives and reduce the chances of curbing tobacco consumption. </p>
<p>Supporters of regulation say that children and young people need to be protected from using products which imitate smoking and from developing nicotine addiction. They also favour regulation to ensure product safety and quality. They advocate a precautionary approach until there is evidence that e-cigarettes do not undermine our recent successes at controlling tobacco.</p>
<p>As well as banning sales to under-18s, the new Scottish laws require retailers to ask for proof of age when selling to someone that looks under 25 (similar to alcohol). They ban the sale of e-cigarettes from vending machines, make it an offence to buy on behalf of someone under 18, and require retailers to put their names on a product register. Scottish ministers will also have the power to further restrict or prohibit advertising and promotions in future. </p>
<h2>Tighter shackles, please</h2>
<p>While the evidence about the risks of e-cigarettes is likely to remain unclear for several years, the Scottish parliament can at least say it is doing what the country wants. A large majority of respondents backed regulation in the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0047/00475570.pdf">consultation of 2014</a>, including representatives of health bodies, local authorities, charities, academics and members of the public. As well as supporting a ban on sales to under-18s or adults buying e-cigarettes on their behalf and preventing young people from seeing advertising and promotions, respondents also widely endorsed restricting the use of e-cigarettes in public places. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113874/original/image-20160304-17730-h6dtc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Save me from myself’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=vaping&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=245043742">Milles Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Scottish public’s desire for these kinds of rules is also reflected in <a href="http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/115515/">research I co-published</a> that looked at debates about e-cigarettes in the UK media and found that supporters of regulation greatly outnumbered opponents. I have also been involved in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.13377/abstract">new study</a>, which investigates the views of UK adolescents on regulation. We found they have a very sophisticated understanding of the advantages and disadvantages. While aware of the potential benefits of e-cigarettes to smokers – including those teenage smokers who want to quit – young people overwhelmingly support strong e-cigarette regulation. This includes restrictions on sales to minors, marketing and the use of e-cigarettes in public places. </p>
<p>The reality is that, until the jury returns, it makes sense to trust the public to reach a view from the best information on e-cigarettes that is available. Even if current regulations were to end up looking disproportionate in years to come, no one will be able to accuse the Scottish government of ignoring people’s concerns and taking public health issues lightly. In a situation where no one really knows what to do for the best, regulation which restricts access and promotion to young people looks like the best policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heide Weishaar receives funding from Cancer Research UK (C54625/A20494).
</span></em></p>Scotland has just joined the growing list of countries getting tough on the vapes. Here’s why the libertarians should pipe down.Heide Weishaar, Research Fellow, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/385502015-03-11T06:23:56Z2015-03-11T06:23:56ZWhatever happened to the great European fracking boom?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74178/original/image-20150309-13576-1uh44fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mission accomplished? Protesters outside the European parliament in Brussels</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/greensefa/8002426030/in/photolist-asG8xe-dbUyaf-dc9wsA-dbUxj4-dbUz7S-ddAaG6-ddAaN4-ddAaz6-ddAcdA-8Qt9W3-fwMPmx-fx31H7-fx3gzC-fx32ns-q1dVeT-qUHrvu-qEscns-qUHrWQ-qWVYUS-qX1ypn-aEksK6-aEksyZ-ddAcqA-ddAcw5-ddAauD-ddAcom-ddAaQB-ddAaxa-qH6Eyz-aEpiwh-93wzZx-nW28xS-mkyuML-nW2abm-mkyv6w-mkwxrP-mkxeKT-mkxffk-mkytxS-mkyqGS-mkyqPW-mkxeBX-mkxa9i-mkwxeK-mkwwYK-mkwsyT-mkxae8-mkx9kV-mkxefV-mkwtjk">Greensefa</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The European shale gas boom has not materialised in the way that some were predicting. We are a far cry from the situation a few years ago, where interest in <a href="https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/refine/FrackingSummaryRBEnglish.pdf">fracking</a> in Europe was <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d8c79266-6764-11df-a932-00144feab49a.html#axzz3TyaO1r4a">gathering pace</a> on the back of the successes in North America. </p>
<p>The UK <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/newsdesk/energy/data/fracking-38-south-eastern-constituencies">appeared to be</a> leading the way, with drilling activities in north-west and south-east England. Companies started snapping up exploration licences right across the continent, and prospects from Scandinavia to the Urals found themselves being eagerly appraised.</p>
<p>So what’s happened, and what do the prospects for Europe look like now?</p>
<h2>Western Europe</h2>
<p>Of the countries in mainland western Europe, France has the most potential for unconventional hydrocarbons. The shales of the Paris Basin are thought to have major shale gas and minor shale oil potential, while the Jurassic shales in the south-east of the country may also have some shale gas potential. But a fracking moratorium <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24489986">has been in place</a> since 2011, and was upheld in 2013. For the present, therefore, France ne frac pas.</p>
<p>Germany, like France, has not permitted fracking since 2011. But unlike France, it does not have huge quantities of prospective shale. Most of the potential interest in fracking is for gas from low permeability sandstones and coal beds, and there <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/14/germany-legalise-fracking-shale-gas-hydraulic-fracturing">have been</a> moves recently to permit fracking at depths of more than 3,000 metres.</p>
<p>The only other mainland western European country with significant shale gas potential is the Netherlands. There is <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/02/netherlands-gas-groningen-idUKL5N0W40U720150302">considerable public opposition</a>, however, particularly with conventional gas extraction having been linked to subsidence and induced seismicity in the Groningen area. No fracking for shale gas has been permitted so far.</p>
<p><strong>Shale gas in Europe by country</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74299/original/image-20150310-13573-1fj1na9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Technically recoverable resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/table4.pdf">EIA 2013</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Eastern Europe</h2>
<p>With large areas of apparently prospective shale and a government supportive of fracking, Poland looked to be the frontrunner of the European shale gas boom. The reality has been rather more sobering, however. </p>
<p>Many boreholes have been drilled, few have produced the results that were hoped for, and most of the major companies <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/31/chevron-poland-shale-idUSL6N0VA08020150131">have now withdrawn</a> from the country. Polish shale gas may still prove to be viable in the long-term, but abundant shales and an enthusiastic political leadership do not guarantee fracking success.</p>
<p>Ukraine was also seen as a major exploration target, with prospects for shale gas in both the west and east of the country. Exploration began in both areas, but subsequent political upheavals and the violent conflict in the Donetsk region have ensured that fracking has not taken off and has little likelihood of doing so in the near future.</p>
<p>The prospective shales of western Ukraine continue into Romania and Bulgaria. Romania saw some exploration for shale gas by Chevron, but poor results and environmental protests saw the company <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/chevron-to-give-up-romanian-shale-gas-interests-1424482388">pull out</a> of the country in early 2015. Bulgaria, meanwhile, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/feb/14/bulgaria-bans-shale-gas-exploration">placed a moratorium</a> on fracking in 2012. Hungary and the Lithuania-Kaliningrad region of the Baltic are also thought to have unconventional hydrocarbon potential, but little exploration activity has taken place.</p>
<p><strong>Shale oil in Europe by country</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74300/original/image-20150310-13550-189r4b0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Technically recoverable resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/table4.pdf">EIA 2013</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Scandinavia</h2>
<p>The only Scandinavian country where shales have proven of interest is Denmark, where the <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3741">US Geological Survey suggested</a> that there were 2.5tn cubic feet (tcf) of onshore gas resources in the Alum Shale. </p>
<p>The government issued a moratorium on fracking in 2012, but Total was allowed to continue with exploration in Jutland and Zealand, with plans to carry out test drilling this spring. There <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2015/02/05/denmark-to-reconsider-fracking-ban-after-total-shale-tests/">have been reports</a> that the government may consider lifting the moratorium if Total decides to go ahead with fracking on the back of good results. </p>
<h2>Southern Europe</h2>
<p>The geology in southern Europe is tectonically complex. There are few shale basins, so the region has seen very limited interest in fracking. The Jurassic shales of the Basque-Cantabrian basin of northwest Spain are considered to have some potential for shale gas, and some exploration <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/26/spain-oil-deposit-fracking-sites-energy-offshore-gas">has begun there</a>.</p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>It is clear there are very few European countries in which fracking is likely to happen any time soon, if at all. Many apparently prospective European shales have turned out to be more geologically complicated than expected. </p>
<p>This is related to the fact that although shale is a very common rock, it has not been a common subject of research – at least until recently. Much remains to be understood about how shales form, how they vary, and how they behave when fracked. </p>
<p>Environmental and political concerns have also come to the fore more than might have been anticipated, while the oil-price slump has made all efforts look much more expensive than they did a year ago. </p>
<p>For the companies concerned, this has changed the economics – particularly where the geology has proven complex. Europe’s shales were always going to be different to those of North America. To major companies, they now look a great deal less enticing. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, it is crucial that fracking research continues. A good understanding of shale geology is still in its infancy. If fracking is to take place anywhere in Europe, baseline environmental information from potential fracking sites needs to be collected, analysed, and made publicly available, along with long-term monitoring data. </p>
<p>Shale scientists must also develop meaningful dialogues with the public, explaining what we know and don’t know about the possible risks. The <a href="http://www.refine.org.uk">Research Fracking in Europe (ReFINE) project</a> is involved in this work, looking at things like <a href="https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/refine/HydraulicFracturesRBfinal2.pdf">how far hydraulic fractures go</a>, how large an earthquake <a href="https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/refine/InducedSeismicityResearchBrieffinal2.pdf">fracking can cause</a>, and the <a href="https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/refine/WellintegrityRBenglish.pdf">likelihood of leaks</a> from shale-gas wells. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the EU announced several weeks ago that it was <a href="http://www.sciencebusiness.net/news/76921/EU-announces-around-%E2%82%AC12-million-in-funding-for-fracking-research">awarding €12m (£8.6m)</a> to researchers looking at the environmental impact of fracking, and the risks of chemicals and gases being dispersed below the ground. Europe might never lead the world in fracking, but it can lead the world in fracking research.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38550/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam works on the ReFINE (Researching Fracking In Europe) project, which receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council, Shell, and Chevron; and on the JARR (Jurassic Analogues: Resources to Reserves) project, which receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council.</span></em></p>Europe was supposed to be big business for fracking companies, but so far not so good. So what’s going wrong?Liam Herringshaw, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/332882014-10-22T17:00:48Z2014-10-22T17:00:48ZRussia’s borders: old ties pull Bulgaria in two directions<p><em>As part of our series on Russia’s relations with its European neighbours, we put the spotlight on Bulgaria. The country’s old tensions over commitments to East or West have come to the fore over the Ukraine crisis and were a key issue during the general election earlier this month. Sofia-based international relations expert Plamen Ralchev looks at where Bulgaria goes from here.</em> </p>
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<p>Modern relations between Bulgaria and Russia began about two centuries ago when Russia sought geopolitical advantages in the Balkans and strategic access to the Turkish Straits. Russia positioned herself as a guardian of Balkan Orthodox Christians in the Ottoman Empire, which included the people in latterday Bulgaria. With linguistic similarities also in common, the Russians became supporters of the 19th-century Bulgarian <a href="http://bnr.bg/en/post/100102998/bulgarias-liberation-movement-the-guerilla-detachments-in-bulgaria-on-its-way-to-freedom">liberation movement</a> against the Ottoman rule. </p>
<p>By the time of the Russian-Turkish war of 1877-78, Russia’s paternalistic approach to Bulgaria nurtured a kind of dependency mentality among many Bulgarians. After the Ottoman defeat and the subsequent <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/62090/Congress-of-Berlin">congress of Berlin</a>, Russia ended up with a mandate to supervise the Principality of Bulgaria that emerged. </p>
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<h2>Bulgarian bed-hopping</h2>
<p>Both the Bulgarian public and Russian-speaking elite were deeply in favour of Russian involvement as the army, police force and public administration were set up. Yet sentiment became more divided after 1885 as the question of full statehood moved up the agenda. And when Bulgaria embarked on a modernisation project in the late 19th century, it tacked towards the European mainstream and particularly Germany. </p>
<p>This continued until after the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/yalta-conf">Yalta conference of 1945</a>, when Bulgaria was relinquished to Soviet influence. For the next 45 years Soviet dominance built upon previous pro-Russian sentiments in Bulgarian society. This turned the country into a communist stronghold, the staunchest and most obedient Soviet ally. </p>
<p>Bulgaria lost prestige internationally and became heavily dependent on the Soviets. Even after the fall of the Communist regime in 1989, Bulgaria was hesitant for several years about which way to go. And in the intervening years of Euro-Atlantic integration, the pro and anti-Russian divisions have re-emerged at every challenge. </p>
<p>Bulgaria joined NATO (2004) and the European Union (2007), and <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4951726.stm">signed an agreement</a> with the US in 2006 for a joint military training facility within the country, all of which have been heavy blows to Russia. This has put Bulgaria in a precarious position because the Russians have various kinds of leverage over her. </p>
<h2>Life’s not a gas</h2>
<p>Bulgaria has remained energy-dependent on Russia due to the unwise political choices of several governments. Not only does Russia provide most of its gas, the Russian energy giant Lukoil owns Bulgaria’s only oil refinery. Lukoil and Gazprom also have a network of petrol and gas stations throughout the country. </p>
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<p>Bulgaria depends on Russia for all of its nuclear fuel (though it <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/bulgaria-nuclear-idUKL6N0Q72FT20140801">recently signed</a> a deal to have a new reactor built by Japanese-owned Westinghouse). The net result of this energy dominance is that Russia maintains a strong “energy lobby” in Bulgarian political and expert circles. </p>
<p>In recent months this lobby has been working overtime over the “South Stream” pipeline, which is being built from Russia across the Black Sea, through the Balkans to north-east Italy. Crucially this gives the Russians a second gas export route to Europe that doesn’t go through Ukraine. Bulgaria ordered work on the pipeline to stop in the summer under pressure from Brussels that it did not conform to EU law. It appears not to have resumed since. </p>
<p>Disagreements over the suspension were among various issues that helped bring down the Bulgarian coalition government in July. This led to an election earlier in October, where the pipeline was a key point of debate. The pro-suspension centre-right GERB party finished first, but it is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/21/coalition-confusion-after-bulgarias-election/">not yet clear whether</a> it can form a stable coalition. </p>
<h2>Inferiority complex</h2>
<p>Aside from energy, Russia is heavily interested in the Bulgarian military-industrial complex, most of whose equipment is Soviet-made and depends on Russia for maintenance. The outgoing Bulgarian defence minister was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29593405">recently quoted saying</a> this puts the country in a vulnerable position, particularly regarding its ageing jet fighters. Any question of upgrading with equipment from elsewhere runs counter to Russian interests, so is unlikely to be welcomed by Moscow. </p>
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<span class="caption">Bulgarian MiG-21, training with Americans, but maintained by the Russians.</span>
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<p>Russian companies’ and citizens’ investments in Bulgarian property have meanwhile increased in recent years, while the Bulgarian tourist industry relies on Russian visitors. Russia is also good at using propaganda. It frequently puts a spin on assistance or benefits to Bulgaria as being “from Moscow with love”. This is attractive to those Bulgarians whose affection for Russia remains strong. And it suits Russia when the Bulgarians are unsure whether to look East or West, such as <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/01/us-ukraine-crisis-bulgaria-idUSBREA301B020140401">during the Ukraine crisis</a>. </p>
<p>The Russians see this as an opportunity to tip the scales by playing one side against the other. This cropped up over South Stream, for instance, where there are rumours that the previous government would have allowed the pipeline work to continue despite the EU objections. Some observers believe that Russia will also have a hand in determining the make-up of the next coalition government. </p>
<p>If Bulgaria is to overcome its Russian obsession and inferiority complex, the elite needs to use more political imagination and be more willing to make difficult policy choices. It cannot handle its eastern neighbour alone, because Russia is much more powerful. If the EU and US are determined to play tough on Russia, Bulgaria is one of the places where they will have to face their opponent. The security context will be determined by whether the West stands firmly alongside Bulgaria, and whether the Bulgarian government sustains Russian pressure or opts to “play both ways”.</p>
<p>Bulgaria unfortunately has to survive in a swirl where the European mainstream meets the Russian current near the Turkish Straits. Having had to cope with the interference of Russia, Germany and Turkey throughout its existence, these countries still have the biggest stakes in Bulgaria’s future. </p>
<p>It is not that Bulgaria could become another Ukraine, since here Russia has always preferred to play in the shadows. There is no Russian-speaking population with an identity crisis that presents a similar opportunity. Rather it is a question of influence and political decisions. Being in NATO and the EU gives Sofia certain credentials with the West. But it has to strengthen these further to curb the pro-Russian drift and overcome the two countries’ complex and deep-rooted past. </p>
<p><em>To read other instalments from our Russia’s borders series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/search?q=russia%27s+borders">click here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Plamen is founder and director of StratCom - an independent think-tank for strategic communications, international public relations and public diplomacy.</span></em></p>As part of our series on Russia’s relations with its European neighbours, we put the spotlight on Bulgaria. The country’s old tensions over commitments to East or West have come to the fore over the Ukraine…Plamen Ralchev, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of National and World EconomyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/287332014-07-04T15:44:49Z2014-07-04T15:44:49ZBulgaria banking meltdown averted for now, but there may still be trouble ahead<p>Over the past two weeks, two of Bulgaria’s largest financial institutions have experienced bank runs. This triggered memories of the <a href="http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55404">banking crisis in 1996-97</a> when one-third of the banks in this emerging economy went bankrupt and depositors lost a large share of their savings. Yet the panic that caused worried customers to form long lines in front of bank branches around the country this time around was astonishing because Bulgaria’s banking sector is one of the most sound and well capitalised in central and eastern Europe. </p>
<p>The financial crisis of the 1990s and the resulting hyperinflation were ultimately contained by introducing a currency board arrangement that pegged the Bulgarian lev to the German mark and later to the euro. Regulation was tightened, bank supervision was improved and expanded, and viable banks were sold to strategic investors from abroad. More than 70% of the banks became foreign-owned. The financial stability that these measures brought was further strengthened by the accession of Bulgaria to the EU in 2007. </p>
<p>The subsequent global financial crisis and European debt crisis led to a severe decline in crediting activities and an increase in non-performing loans. But the banking sector in the country weathered these adverse conditions relatively well. For these reasons, the recent sudden bank runs caught the general public and regulatory authorities by surprise.</p>
<h2>The CCB affair</h2>
<p>The first bank to fall victim to the panic was the <a href="http://www.investbulgaria.com/infoCompany.php?id=2134">Corporate Commercial Bank (CCB)</a>, which is the fourth-largest and the fastest-growing lender in Bulgaria. </p>
<p>Over the past few years CCB has been able to attract the deposits of the majority of state-owned enterprises in the country. This allowed it to get involved in some huge deals, such as the privatisation of the former state tobacco monopoly, <a href="http://www.bulgartabac.bg/en/">Bulgartabac</a>. The majority shareholder of CCB, <a href="http://www.leadersmag.com/issues/2011.4_oct/Bulgaria/LEADERS-Tzvetan-Vassilev-Corporate-Commercial-Bank.html">Tzvetan Vassilev</a>, emerged as one of the country’s most prominent businessmen. He sponsored sports teams and even financed a new political party that won more than 10% of the votes for the European parliament in May. </p>
<p>The trouble for CCB began last year when the Bulgarian parliament <a href="http://ime.bg/pdf_docs/bankrep/part4.pdf">implemented a new rule</a> compelling state-owned enterprises to hold no more than 25% of their deposits in a single bank. There were also some indications that the bank was under-reporting its share of non-performing loans and was violating some provisions. The lack of any action by the central bank was seen as a sign that CCB enjoys political protection.</p>
<h2>Stand well back</h2>
<p>A few months ago Vassilev had a <a href="http://sofiaglobe.com/2014/06/24/bulgarian-prosecutors-investigate-new-murder-plot-in-peevski-vassilev-saga/">major falling out</a> with his business partner, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delyan_Peevski">Delyan Peevski</a>, a controversial media magnate, former magistrate and current member of parliament; who is said to have powerful connections in political and judicial circles. The clash became public two weeks ago when the two men traded accusations of trying to kill each other. Apparently Peevski prevailed because Vassilev fled to Vienna while the <a href="http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/06/13/339500/three-people-arrested-and-charged-with-preparing-the-murder-of-delyan-peevski.html">police arrested three men</a> accused of planning the assassination of Peevski and searched the offices of CCB. </p>
<p>It was further revealed that Peevski, who had been a major client of CCB, transferred the huge deposits of his media outlets to a different bank, along with those of Bulgartabac, which he is said to control. The newspapers and tabloids controlled by, or sympathetic to, Peevski reported in detail that Vassilev had not only ordered the killing of Peevski but was also trying to bleed the bank dry. The fact that a few days later the <a href="http://sofiaglobe.com/2014/06/15/prosecutors-to-appeal-against-release-of-peevski-murder-plot-accused/">accused assassins were released without any charges</a> suggests this might have been part of a well-orchestrated smear campaign against Vassilev and CCB. </p>
<p>On June 16 panicked people started forming lines in front of the offices of CCB, while state-owned enterprises were reportedly trying to withdraw their deposits as well. On June 18 CCB informed the central bank that it had exhausted its liquidity and would discontinue all banking operations. <a href="http://example.com/">The central bank took control</a> of the bank in response, announcing that it would re-open on July 21. This left most customers without access to their deposits and increased the uncertainty.</p>
<h2>FIB topples</h2>
<p>Last Friday First Investment Bank (FIB), Bulgaria’s third-largest, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/30/bulgaria-bank-savers-withdraw-cash">became the second to be hit by a bank run</a>. This time the panic was caused by a concerted speculative attack that involved <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/second-bulgarian-bank-hit-by-run-on-deposits-1403883024">spreading rumours via text messages</a> to customers’ mobile phones. The uncertainty was further fuelled by irresponsible public statements by politicians from both left and right jostling for position ahead of the parliamentary elections in the autumn. </p>
<p>Within a few hours, more than €400m had been withdrawn from FIB. The bank decided to close early and re-open on Monday. Fearful of the potential threat to financial stability, the authorities took some decisive measures to prevent contagion. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28080888">police arrested dozens of people</a> accused of creating panic by spreading rumours, while the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/eu-approves-bulgarian-bank-aid-1404117901">central bank urgently requested permission</a> from the European Commission (EC) to step in and support FIB.</p>
<p>The EC responded promptly, allowing the Bulgarian central bank to borrow around €600m on the domestic market by issuing five-month government bonds. The EC issued a statement saying that the Bulgarian banking system was “well capitalised and has high levels of liquidity compared to its peers in other member states”. </p>
<p>According to Bulgarian president Rosen Plevneliev: “There is not a crisis in the banking sector. There is a crisis of confidence and a criminal attack.” </p>
<p>By Monday the lines of customers in front of FIB branches had quickly dissipated. Contagion in the Bulgarian banking sector appears to have been averted for the moment, but the political instability due to the elections, the continued infighting among powerful business figures, and the risk of further speculative attacks against banks increases the risk of financial uncertainty. </p>
<p>Some analysts have also suggested that Russia might be trying to destabilise the Bulgarian banking system as revenge for the <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/06/13/bulgarias-decision-to-suspend-work-on-the-south-stream-pipeline-is-likely-to-increase-the-eus-leverage-in-negotiations-with-russia-over-ukraine/">decision by the Bulgarian government</a> to stop the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline, which occurred under EU pressure and after a recent high-level visit by three US senators. The pipeline would provide an alternative route for Russian gas to Europe to the existing pipeline through Ukraine. Especially while it remains uncertain what lay behind these attacks on the banking sector, the country is likely to remain on edge in the coming weeks and months. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28733/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kiril Tochkov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Over the past two weeks, two of Bulgaria’s largest financial institutions have experienced bank runs. This triggered memories of the banking crisis in 1996-97 when one-third of the banks in this emerging…Kiril Tochkov, Associate Professor of Eonomics, Texas Christian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/270962014-06-05T05:05:05Z2014-06-05T05:05:05ZAlbanian and Bulgarian Saturday schools get a mixed reaction from students<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50283/original/xxq7fd8m-1401898815.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Don't forget your Albanian culture. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/interkultur/4665668707/sizes/l">Interkultur</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For many children from Eastern European families, the 3pm school bell on a Friday isn’t the last they’ll see of a classroom until Monday. Many attend complementary schools, voluntary community-led programmes that focus on teaching students about language and heritage and delivering the core curriculum support. </p>
<p>While some of these schools – also known as “supplementary” and “mother tongue” schools – were set up in the UK after World War II by Baltic, Polish and Ukrainian immigrant communities, many more have appeared in the last decade in the context of the European Union’s enlargement. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.supplementaryeducation.org.uk">the National Resource Centre for Supplementary Education</a> there are between 3,000 and 5,000 such schools in England. The Polish community alone runs more than <a href="http://www.polskamacierz.org/">120 Saturday schools</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02671522.2014.919521">recent research</a> has focused on complementary schools for the Albanian and Bulgarian communities and the views of the children attending them. What we found has highlighted the need for complementary schools to work more closely with the mainstream system. Many wanted the chance to do language qualifications in Albanian or Bulgarian. </p>
<h2>Eastern Europeans in the classroom</h2>
<p>There is evidence that complementary schools benefit the education of minority ethnic and migrant children. In 2010, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/impact-of-supplementary-schools-on-pupils-attainment-an-investigation-into-what-factors-contribute-to-educational-improvements">research commissioned by the then department for children, schools and families</a> estimated that between 18 and 28% of schoolchildren from minority backgrounds attended complementary schools. </p>
<p>The schools led to better examination results for the pupils, who had a positive attitude towards education and identity, motivation for learning, and more confidence. </p>
<p>But the recent wave of migrants from Eastern Europe has received much negative media attention in the UK. They are portrayed as a drain on public resources particularly in light of limited budgets. British schools have been described as <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5388264.stm">“changed”</a>, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-458825/Schools-stretched-breaking-point-immigrant-children.html">“stretched”</a> and <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-427955/Influx-immigrants-forces-council-build-new-schools.html">“overwhelmed”</a> by the influx of children who do not speak English as their first language. </p>
<p>Seen from another view point, Eastern European migrants have <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/uks-new-europeans-progress-and-challenges-five-years-after-accession">substantial levels of education</a> and parents often have high academic <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2141974/British-schools-fail-children-say-Eastern-European-immigrants-return-home-rely-NHS.html">expectations of their children</a>. </p>
<p>Anecdotal reports point to Polish students <a href="http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/polish_children_boosting_results_in_norfolk_minister_claims_1_3178852">boosting results</a> at English schools, particularly in subjects such as <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9280815/Polish-children-boosting-standards-among-English-pupils-study-suggests.html">mathematics</a>.</p>
<h2>The views of students</h2>
<p>In our research, we asked first-generation Bulgarian and Albanian migrant students living in London about their experiences of complementary schools and English mainstream schools. Research lasted five months, during which time 20 students participated in a series of interviews and activities. We found that different models and types of complementary schools affected the views of students. </p>
<p>The Bulgarian school boasted a structured learning culture which focused on parts of the Bulgarian curriculum such as literacy, history and geography to enable students to get official Bulgarian certificates. Students described their complementary school as over-demanding and monotonous, although it lasted only four hours on Saturdays.</p>
<p>In contrast, they most commonly used words “fun”, “creative”, “inspiring” and “interesting” to describe their English schools. Some also expressed preference to learning in mainstream school because it was “easier” for them. But this may reflect differences in teaching and learning approaches rather than actual levels of difficulty. </p>
<p>The Albanian school aimed at teaching Albanian language and heritage and a variety of skills which students requested such as dancing, photography and sports. Less emphasis was placed on speaking Albanian in the school and more emphasis was placed on creating a social environment valued by students. </p>
<p>The school was highly successful in promoting a sense of Albanian identity. Most students cited the key reason for this as the provision of a space for young people “like them” to meet and interact. </p>
<p>Despite valuing UK diversity, these students preferred the mono-cultural and “respectful” Albanian environment of the complementary school to the multicultural, “non-caring” mainstream school. This presents schools with a challenge of how to address issues around racism and inclusion of newcomers in the current, quite tense immigration environment.</p>
<h2>Compatibility with mainstream school</h2>
<p>There is little evidence of cross-fertilisation between mainstream and complementary sectors despite <a href="http://www.supplementaryeducation.org.uk/supplementary-education-the-nrc/">calls</a> for the sectors to work in partnership. Most complementary schools in Eastern European communities focus on language teaching. Considering the ongoing <a href="http://www.britac.ac.uk/policy/State_of_the_Nation_2013.cfm">foreign language deficit in the UK</a>, they could be a significant resource. </p>
<p>But out of more than 15 languages spoken across Eastern Europe, only Polish and Russian are available for external assessment at GCSE and A/AS level in the UK. The community languages that get accredited at national examinations are often perceived to have more weight and attract a large number of learners. </p>
<p>For the Albanian complementary school and its students, <a href="http://www.jackpetcheyfoundation.org.uk/case-study/shpresa-language">GCSE in Albanian was an important advocacy</a> issue. Bulgarian students also wanted to use Bulgarian language in the mainstream educational setting by registering for GCSEs in Bulgarian. All the students we interviewed argued that learning an additional language helped them learn other languages at school. </p>
<p>Committing government resources for language certification would not only support migrant students’ learner identities and enhance their educational capital, but could stimulate a real dialogue between complementary and mainstream schools, and so significantly increase the compatibility of their educational agendas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antonina Tereshchenko receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p>For many children from Eastern European families, the 3pm school bell on a Friday isn’t the last they’ll see of a classroom until Monday. Many attend complementary schools, voluntary community-led programmes…Antonina Tereshchenko, Newton Fellow, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/260042014-05-21T05:10:03Z2014-05-21T05:10:03ZEU election: high-stakes campaign in Bulgaria could make or break government<p>Intense political polarisation and protests took place in Bulgaria in 2013. In February of that year, the ruling party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), was forced to resign and new <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22498433">national elections were organised</a>. This allowed a coalition of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) to form a government.</p>
<p>And yet a second wave of political protests started and continued during the summer and into early autumn. The prime minister, Plamen Oresharski (an independent member endorsed by the BSP), was unable to quell unrest so former prime minister and the current leader of the BSP, Sergei Stanishev, stepped in with the promise that the future of the cabinet and the future of the National Parliament would depend on the people’s will as expressed in <a href="http://sofiaglobe.com/2014/05/08/european-elections-2014-bulgaria-any-change/">the results of the European Parliament elections</a>.</p>
<p>He pledged that if the ruling coalition parties receive fewer votes than opposition parties, the government would step aside and hold new elections later in the year. Suddenly, these European Parliamentary elections have been transformed into a national referendum on the government. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/bulgaria/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result the campaign has become a purely national campaign addressing specific national issues. And from being considered as “second-order” elections, the EU elections now have very high political stakes. This is not the first time this has happened. In 2009, the EU elections took place one month before regular national elections, so the campaign became a forerunner of the national election campaign, with the result taken as indicative of the national elections to follow.</p>
<p>In 2014 the fate of the government and the survival of the assembly are dependent on this week’s European Parliament election result, which has raised the stakes and focused the campaign on national issues. </p>
<h2>Big hitters and outside chances</h2>
<p>To understand the way this election is going to work in Bulgaria it is helpful to group participating parties in two main groups: parties members of an EP party group and parties without such an affiliation. </p>
<p>We could label them as “mainstream parties” and “outsiders”, respectively. To the first group belong the governing parties, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which is a member of the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Movement For Rights and Freedoms (DPS) which is a member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). </p>
<p>The main opposition party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) is a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) and Reformist Bloc, an alliance of a number of minority right-wing and centrist parties (RB) that currently hold no seats in the Bulgarian parliament has some MEPs aligned to EPP. </p>
<p>The outsiders are political parties at the margin of party space which, apart from the populist party <a href="http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/05/20/336772/gallup-bulgaria-without-censorship-third-political-force-at-eu-elections.html">Bulgaria Without Censorship</a> (BBC), do not stand much of a chance of securing a seat. </p>
<h2>What the polls are saying</h2>
<p>So far the opinion polls have been fairly stable: it looks as if the elections will be dominated by insiders: the BSP, GERB, DPS, RB and – recently indentified as a growing force – BBC. For the first time, nationalist parties are likely to be left without representation at Brussels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison with Media poll of 5 April 2014. Results presented here exclude undecided voters (31%).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/bulgaria/#.U3taPfldXsY">Graph via Metapolls</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is largely due to the fact that a variety of populist parties are vying for the nationalist vote. So, National Union Attack (ATAKA) which won two seats in 2009, may receive an insufficient number of votes to send an MEP to Brussels. </p>
<h2>Euroscepticism</h2>
<p>The real surprise of these elections is the manner in which <a href="http://www.euroviews.eu/2014/04/30/video-ataka-euroscepticism-and-the-bulgarian-youth/">Euroscepticism</a> is manifesting itself in the form of both “hard” and “soft” Euroscepticism. It’s important to note that this is political territory that was previously occupied by the marginal players. But no longer. Now a variety of mainstream actors, including some influential figures within the BSP, are expressing doubts and criticisms of the EU. </p>
<p>This is new. Only two or three years ago, Bulgaria was seen as one of the most enthusiastic members of the EU – and one of the reasons that nationalist parties such as Ataka could attract votes. But as the mainstream has developed its own softer version of Euroscepticism they have dragged support from the fringe, mainstreaming the issue and hence mainstreaming a section of the Eurosceptic vote in this election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dragomir Stoyanov is affiliated with Sofia Society of Political Studies.</span></em></p>Intense political polarisation and protests took place in Bulgaria in 2013. In February of that year, the ruling party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), was forced to resign and new…Dragomir Stoyanov, PhD candidate, Sofia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/267272014-05-14T14:14:29Z2014-05-14T14:14:29ZThere is no flood of Bulgarian and Romanian migrants, but it’s too soon to say it’s a trickle<p>New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has shown a small drop of about 4,000 in the number of Romanian and Bulgarian-born people employed in the UK in the first three months of 2014 – the period immediately after restrictions on the employment of migrants from these countries ended.</p>
<p>Much has been made in some newspapers about what impact the lifting of these controls would have on the numbers of Romanian and Bulgarian (also known as A2) migrants in the UK, with <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/440409/98-demand-a-ban-on-new-migrants-as-thousands-support-our-Crusade">regular suggestions</a> that the number would increase sharply.</p>
<p>So it is tempting to conclude that the new Labour Force Survey (LFS) data – showing that the opposite has happened and that actually, fewer Romanian and Bulgarian people are now working in the UK than at the end of last year – proves these stories wrong. But it is far too early to tell.</p>
<p>Migration data is complicated and often contradictory. Bold claims about how little effect the lifting of labour market restrictions will have on the numbers of Romanians and Bulgarians working in the UK over the next year are premature. </p>
<p>Claims of this sort, based on a single quarter of evidence from one source, are nearly as risky as the predictions last year that lifting work restrictions would lead to a sudden <a href="https://theconversation.com/pseudo-research-pulls-385-000-migrants-out-of-a-hat-21250">“flood” of A2 migrants</a>. Over the course of this year we will see <a href="http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/commentary/jumping-gun-wait-facts-estimating-romanian-and-bulgarian-migration">several more sets of data released</a> which may yet tell a very different story. We simply don’t know, and guessing doesn’t get us very far.</p>
<p>What the new Labour Force Survey data actually tell us is this:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48615/original/5qy2bxmx-1400158481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A2 migrants employed in the UK (000’s)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Migration Observatory</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The number of Romanian – and Bulgarian-born people – employed in the UK increased by more than 28,000 compared to the same period last year. The figures from the first three months (Q1) of 2014 show about 140,000 A2 migrants employed in the UK (including self employed). In the same period of 2013 the number was 112,000.</p>
<p>A closer look at figure 1 also shows that between the first quarter and the last quarter of 2013 – before January 1st, when transitional labour market controls were lifted – this group had increased in size by 32,000 to 144,000.</p>
<p>This means that the 28,000 increase from Q1 2013 to Q1 2014 actually represents a slight decline on the previous quarter (Q4 2013).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48508/original/n7rfytsp-1400074206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Migration Observatory</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Until now there has been a consistent pattern of increased numbers of A2 migrants working in the UK in the first quarter of each year, compared to the last quarter of the previous year, in every year except one (2009-10) since the two countries joined the EU in 2007. This Q4-Q1 increase has regularly exceeded 10,000, and sometimes (2010-11) exceeded 20,000 despite the transitional controls being in place.</p>
<p>The changes that we see in the new data cannot really be seen as a result of the end of controls on the employment opportunities of A2 migrants. It is important that we see this data for what it is – an important first step in understanding how A2 migration is changing – but until we have complete data for 2014 it is impossible to achieve any definite conclusions about the impact of the end of restrictions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob McNeil does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has shown a small drop of about 4,000 in the number of Romanian and Bulgarian-born people employed in the UK in the first three months of 2014 – the…Rob McNeil, Head of Media and Communications, Migration Observatory, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/245502014-03-24T15:58:35Z2014-03-24T15:58:35ZRussia’s back door route to stifle European gas supplies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44571/original/p7dn9679-1395665059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=407%2C251%2C2482%2C1940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Yes it is.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/7194536@N02/4148752823/in/photolist-7jBrF6-7jQSAw-7jR4R1-7kc2Jo-7kJCce-7kKk4p-7oAg1t-7sQy4y-7vCTVg-7vGGTs-7vHY6i-7vPKGR-7x46H2-7x47tZ-8opKAN-dvvfbD-a7r1uv-agv78u-9ec8xP-dD2eBV-8y1Qzs-bAPKc5-dHuKjh-iGuaZd-f9WcRY-dBvUCA-7YhwcE-agv7sJ-gQSBw9-91ckKp-7FdEei-9BkeQS-fKM23e-bpCp5y-c9ENEE-dVmfjG-dVmfTf-8CBVZt-7LYfvn-eGbeBJ-bgsjac-9hNgZ2-dbkLYP-dbkQmy-dDdg1K-fKM1XB-9ai6C4-dyJrFj-austq9-bwqV5k-ir32Zz">Julia Manzerova</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/24/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-base-idUKBREA2N09J20140324">rapid escalation</a> of the situation in <a href="https://theconversation.com/crimea-is-lost-now-ukraines-future-depends-on-a-delicate-power-game-in-the-east-24556">Crimea</a> has led us faster than we might have thought to consider if and how Russia might unleash energy policy as part of its geopolitical strategy. President Vladimir Putin has a powerful weapon at the ready, and may feel he already has enough justification to put it to use.</p>
<p>This tactic is easily characterised with the image of a gas pipeline valve being turned off in a Cold War drama – or in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bz8U5d4S8jo">opening credits of a long-running satirical TV panel show</a>. In reality of course it’s not as simple as that. For a start, the Russian economy would be put under significant pressure by the loss of sales from a source that provides around 14% of the country’s export revenues and 5% of budget revenues. </p>
<p>It could end up as a question of timing. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/08/ukraine-crisis-energy-eni-idUSL6N0M506W20140308">Paolo Scaroni, the CEO of Italian oil and gas giant ENI</a>, has pointed out that the short-term impact would be felt rather more severely in Europe. The continent needs Russian gas today whereas Russia can survive without our money for weeks if not months.</p>
<p>A key question must be whether Russia would be at all motivated to pursue a gas war by turning off the flow of exports proactively. It would perhaps be more likely, and more subtle a tactic, to use the commercial rights in its 2009 export contract with Ukraine to put the blame for any gas crisis on someone else. It is an uncomfortable fact for both Ukraine and the EU that the contract has already been breached, offering Gazprom every opportunity to create problems if it so desires, or if it is encouraged to do so by the Kremlin.</p>
<h2>Contract wrangles</h2>
<p>Under the terms of the 2009 agreement not only was a high gas price agreed but Ukraine was also obliged to accept a take-or-pay clause and to guarantee prompt payment. It is now in breach of both these clauses, allowing Gazprom to take action if it wishes. The deal stipulates that Ukraine must take (or pay) a minimum of 80% of the contracted annual volumes of 52 billion cubic metres (bcm), implying a minimum purchase of 41.6 bcm that was clearly missed by a huge margin in 2013, when 27 bcm was bought. Although the clause was removed in December, when a new much lower price deal was signed, it could return if the original terms are enforced again.</p>
<p>More urgently Ukraine has a US$1.8 billion debt to Gazprom for gas purchased in 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 that is set to rise further as more gas is bought. Ukraine has made some repayments this year but the remaining total remains well beyond its ability to repay in the short term.</p>
<p>In terms of the price Ukraine must pay, Gazprom has already made it clear that it will revert to the arrangements under the 2009 agreement, removing the discount agreed in December. It has also stated that it will no longer offer a further discount for the lease that allowed Russia’s Black Sea fleet to remain at Sevastopol. </p>
<p>This combined change would see the price more than double to about US$475 per one thousand cubic metres from 1 April, lifting Ukraine’s monthly bill to around US$0.5 billion for every billion cubic metres purchased. Ukraine could try to restrict its imports by using gas in storage, but this would only delay any shortages for a few months until winter approaches, by which time storage levels should have been increased, not reduced, if a crisis is to be averted. </p>
<p>All this means that if Gazprom insists Ukraine must reduce its debt and pay for current purchases more promptly, it could force a financial situation which offers the commercial and legal justification for halting gas supply. That in turn would leave Ukraine with very limited options, one of which would be to take gas that is destined for European customers, as happened in 2009.</p>
<h2>Europe under pressure</h2>
<p>Indeed, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller has <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/gazprom-warns-repetition-2009-gas-situation-ukraine">hinted at this strategy already</a>, stating in early March: “we can’t supply gas free of charge. Either Ukraine repays its debt and pays for current deliveries or the risk of returning to the situation at the beginning of 2009 will appear.”</p>
<p>Clearly the problem could be alleviated if the EU or IMF come up with a financial package to support Ukraine, or if a rapid resolution can be found to secure gas via reverse flow from Europe, but at the very least Russia would have forced some awkward political and commercial questions to be asked, while arguing that its stance is based purely on commercial agreements.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44561/original/h9d74rmn-1395658676.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How much is Europe reliant on gas via Ukraine?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/25691430@N04/5473447642/in/photolist-9kERhW-ir32Zz-dM48kZ-fjG7tL-dM9GxQ-dM9y9Y-dM9Edf-dM4c1V-dM3ZZx-dM9Fuf-dM4ck6-dM9Hdq-dM4aBZ-dM3YaK-dM9GKu-dM45ag-dM43Xz-dM48F8-dM4bdT-dM9Hoj-dM9Ja3-dM9KjW-dM9GY9-dM9B9u-dM49Ug-dM4a3r-dM9KRG-dM4aND-dM9xvy-dM9Lcb-dM9HxQ-dM4818-dM4bpv-dM9KwJ-dM9JPN-dM48vH-dM9Cf5-dM9EJf-dM9AAm-dM9DBu-dM4aVF-kia48z-ki9V12-ki9wnP-kibKKA-ki9zH6-kiacKe-kia9Ue-ki9S38-kibMau-ki9ukc">Picture: Harald Hoyer. Table: Gazpromexport, Ukrtransgaz, Argus FSU Energy. </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the table above helps to show, the impact of any interruption to Ukrainian transit, were it to occur, would mainly be felt in south-east Europe. Supplies into the north of the continent could, to some extent, be re-directed to alternative pipelines.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Europe overall has become more reliant on Russian gas in 2013 thanks to a tightening of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and a fall in North African exports on the back of political crisis in the region. About a third of Europe’s gas supply, or 162 billion cubic metres of gas, was purchased from Gazprom last year, up from 139 bcm the year before. With no significant new LNG likely to be available before the end of 2015 at the earliest (when the first US LNG is exported) it would seem that Europe’s dependence is set to continue.</p>
<p>At the very least, therefore, any interruption in supply would cause a price spike for all consumers, but it is Greece and Romania that would appear to be particularly exposed to a disruption in Ukraine. They have no reported storage, although Greece at least could increase LNG imports. Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have sufficient gas to cover only around 50-60 days of lost Russian gas imports, while Hungary and Slovakia are better placed and could cover more than 100 days. Italy is also relatively secure in the short term as not only does it have adequate storage but it is also now well connected with the main European pipeline systems and also has spare LNG regasification capacity that could also be used to supplement supplies (although at high global LNG prices). </p>
<p>As a result, although an interruption would be serious it could be managed, at least in the short term. The major concern, though, would be that stocks would need to be drawn down at a time when they would normally be replenished ahead of the winter, meaning that in reality a crisis would not be averted but rather postponed until the autumn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24550/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Henderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The rapid escalation of the situation in Crimea has led us faster than we might have thought to consider if and how Russia might unleash energy policy as part of its geopolitical strategy. President Vladimir…James Henderson, Senior Research Fellow, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212502013-12-09T06:09:40Z2013-12-09T06:09:40ZPseudo-research pulls 385,000 migrants out of a hat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37152/original/whcjt95g-1386347497.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Where are the other 384,999?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vadim Ghirda/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The immigration debate isn’t a great place to look for <a href="https://theconversation.com/economic-bottom-line-wont-sway-the-immigration-debate-15065">rational or factual arguments</a> at the best of times, and new rules concerning Romania and Bulgaria have spurred a new round of evidence-free speculation. As of January 1, people from both countries will be able to live and work in Britain and other EU nations as and when they please.</p>
<p>Given memories of large-scale – and vastly underestimated – migration from Eastern Europe to Britain after EU enlargement in 2004, many members of the British public are understandably anxious about the potential for a repeat. The government and much of the research community have been reticent to make predictions – also for understandable reasons. But this has left an opportunity for anyone willing to claim that they can forecast the future.</p>
<p>Last week saw a particularly unfortunate example. <a href="http://democracyinstitute.org/_literature_128773/2013_Dec_4_Democracy_Institute_releases_its_alarming_new_report_on_EU_migration">A report</a> by the Democracy Institute, an American libertarian think-tank, predicted that 385,000 people will migrate from Romania and Bulgaria to the UK over the next five years. </p>
<p>This prediction was uncritically featured or cited in an array of newspapers including the <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3940300.ece">The Times</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10493503/385000-Romanians-and-Bulgarians-will-come-to-Britain-report-warns.html">The Daily Telegraph</a>, the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2518491/How-UK-visas-Ukrainian-migrants-rubber-stamped-just-minutes-despite-country-rated-high-risk-fraudulent-applications.html">Daily Mail</a> and the <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/446760/New-report-estimates-at-least-385-000-Romanians-and-Bulgarians-will-flock-to-UK">Daily Express</a>. But the report is deeply flawed and should be dismissed as not credible until its authors can prove otherwise, as it gives no information about the methods by which the prediction was generated. For the British press to continue using the prediction, giving credibility to the dubious report, would be both misleading to the public and damaging to public debate.</p>
<p>To be clear, the problem with the report is not that it predicts a high number. The issue is the lack of transparency about its methodology. The prediction comes from a self-described “proprietary econometric migration model” – in other words, a secret method. This means that there is no way of knowing where the number came from or of scrutinising the approach taken to generate it.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37153/original/scmjz5tx-1386349182.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How the Telegraph covered the story.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Telegraph</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Secrecy in method is contrary to the very idea of research, and devalues attempts to use scientific or social scientific inquiry to inform public debate and public policy. Transparency is a necessity, as it allows other researchers, as well as policy-makers, civil society groups and interested members of the public, to evaluate the quality and credibility of any piece of legitimate research.</p>
<p>Until the authors of the Democracy Institute report show how they have arrived at their conclusions, their “estimate” has as much value for public debate as a number pulled out of a hat, and should be treated as much. Indeed, for all we know, their “proprietary econometric migration model” might involve a large hat with numbers in it. The “proprietary” nature of it means that we will never know.</p>
<p>The most commonly cited prediction of the number of migrants that may come to the UK from Romania and Bulgaria is the central estimate of <a href="http://www.migrationwatchuk.co.uk/briefingPaper/document/287">50,000 per year</a> suggested by Migration Watch. </p>
<p>I have previously argued that it is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/15/bulgarian-romanian-migration-uk-restrictions?commentpage=1">not possible to accurately predict</a> Romanian and Bulgarian migration to Britain post-2014 given the present state of knowledge about what determines migration flows, and that it is not very useful to try. I therefore do not have a view on whether Migration Watch, Democracy Institute, or Romanian and Bulgarian officials <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/apr/23/romania-bulgaria-immigration-uk">with lower predictions</a> are most likely to be proved correct.</p>
<p>However, in contrast with the Democracy Institute, the Migration Watch report has the important merit of transparency about its methods. Their <a href="http://www.migrationwatchuk.co.uk/briefingPaper/document/287">published paper</a> outlined the assumptions they made to come to their figure, and other people and groups have been able to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21039087">critically evaluate</a> their work. The report also is frank about being the result of the authors’ considered judgements rather than a forecasting model. </p>
<p>The Democracy Institute, however, makes no such effort at transparency, and instead uses the language of science and expertise (“econometric migration model”) to disguise a complete lack of public evidence for the number they have injected into Britain’s public discussion.</p>
<p>This is a report that presents the British people with a number that cannot be scrutinised or tested. Until the authors show their work, 385,000 migrants per year represents a guess masquerading as a social scientific estimate. A press and political class concerned with evidence-based debate should avoid presenting it as anything more substantial than that.</p>
<p>Basing policy-making and public debate on evidence is a worthy goal, and the immigration debate in Britain is often highlighted as in particular need of an increase in the ratio of evidence to assertion. But for this to work, it is important to distinguish more and less credible contributions, and to put no stock in those who claim the language of research but present nothing of the kind. Citing a number and claiming to have model is not a sound basis for intervening in Britain’s immigration debate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21250/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Blinder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The immigration debate isn’t a great place to look for rational or factual arguments at the best of times, and new rules concerning Romania and Bulgaria have spurred a new round of evidence-free speculation…Scott Blinder, Acting Director, Migration Observatory, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/209822013-12-04T14:32:15Z2013-12-04T14:32:15ZIgnore the scare tactics – Roma integration is hard but worth it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36931/original/fhyxfpbw-1386161452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some migrants are more equal than others.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Parsons/PA Wire</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Those who follow the situation of Europe’s Roma know that there is never a “dull” week in which we don’t hear of accusations, abuse, or even violence against them. Most events do not grab major headlines in the British media; not so the happenings of the past few months. </p>
<p>In mid-October, Greek police <a href="https://theconversation.com/roma-in-the-tabloid-crosshairs-over-blonde-angels-19526">detained</a> a Roma couple on suspicion of abducting a four-year old girl who later turned out to have been informally adopted; in Ireland, authorities <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/25/world/europe/irish-government-promises-review-of-roma-case-but-rights-groups-protest.html">removed two children</a> for DNA testing who later turned out to be who their parents said they were. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in Britain, a <a href="http://www.salford.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/363118/Migrant_Roma_in_the_UK_final_report_October_2013.pdf">report</a> was circulated among Labour politicians which claimed that the number of immigrant Roma in the UK was not around 40,000 as previously accepted, but a confounding 200,000. Former Labour home secretary, Jack Straw, went public ten days later to proclaim that his own party had made a mistake by letting a million eastern European immigrants into the country; his words were echoed by the opposition leader Ed Miliband. That same day, Straw’s predecessor David Blunkett gave a radio <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24909979">interview</a> about the Slovak Roma in his Sheffield constituency.</p>
<p>His words of concern appeared to have got lost in translation; the press went into a frenzy over a misquote, claiming that he had warned of “riots” against Roma. UKIP’s Nigel Farage was quick to express agreement, praising Blunkett for his “courage” yet taking the higher ground and condemning his “use of language”. The government now stood bare in the line of fire: in January, restrictions on work permits for citizens of Romania and Bulgaria are being lifted. In the eyes of the public, “Romania and Bulgaria” is a mere <a href="https://theconversation.com/get-ready-for-more-scare-tactics-on-eu-immigrants-14061">paraphrase</a> for “Roma” – and “Roma” in turn is nothing but a politically correct substitute for “Gypsy”. </p>
<p>Public figures on the left and right were now insinuating that the New Year would bring a tidal wave of workshy, rootless, Gypsy child-kidnappers. Nick Clegg tried to assure the public that it’s not the coalition that’s responsible but the Roma, whose behaviour, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24944572">he said</a>, was “sometimes intimidating, sometimes offensive”. </p>
<p>With public anxieties rising, Downing Street’s options were limited: Britain cannot opt out of an EU-treaty at short notice. So last week, the prime minister, David Cameron, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25114890">announced</a> that he will restrict benefits for EU-migrants and deport “beggars”. The mention of both “benefits” and “begging” is again widely understood as code for “workshy Gypsies”. Experts in constitutional law as well as the EU’s Employment Commissioner said the plans could not be legally implemented – but what counts is the rhetoric. </p>
<h2>‘Hordes at the gates’</h2>
<p>We have been here before. Back in 1997, media and politicians <a href="http://www.errc.org/roma-rights-journal/%E2%80%9Ewish-you-werent-here--the-response-of-the-british-press-to-romani-asylum-seekers/499">ran amok</a> when a group of several hundred Czech and Slovak Roma arrived in Dover and claimed asylum. </p>
<p>At the height of preparations for full the EU accession of the Czech and Slovak republics, the UK <a href="http://www.migrationwatchuk.com/briefingPaper/document/65">posted</a> border control officers at Prague airport, whose task was to ethnically profile Roma and prevent them from bordering planes headed for Britain. In a private <a href="http://www.marston.co.uk/rspp/luprsv013p02a00079.pdf">letter</a> to his Czech counterpart Vladimir Špidla in July 2002, Prime Minister Tony Blair described the immigration of Czech Roma to the UK as an “unacceptable situation” and added that “the Roma community need to know that unfounded asylum seekers will be returned immediately”.</p>
<p>But just as today’s Roma panic bears little relation to reality, when restrictions on the immigration of Czech nationals were lifted in 2004, there was no wave of Roma queueing up to claim benefits in Britain. But still the British government and opposition are caught in a spiral of angst and tension, triggering and then reinforcing fantasies and fears that have surrounded the image of “Gypsies” in European societies since the Middle Ages.</p>
<h2>Inclusion is a two-way process</h2>
<p>So what is the real issue facing Roma migrants in the UK? There are two. The first is the perception by outsiders. Roma migrants are visible because they arrive in extended families, often with many children; they tend to be unskilled, and so they are not usually silently absorbed within the workforce of large companies. Instead, they are enterprising, and exploit economic niches – which brings them in view of the wider public and hence makes them more conspicuous. </p>
<p>More than any other ethnic group, they are subject to prejudiced expectations about their collective behaviour, which politicians like Nick Clegg reinforce through their judgemental statements. Unless the UK tackles anti-Roma perceptions and prejudice, the exclusion and marginalisation of Roma will continue to thwart any chance of their integration.</p>
<p>The second issue is at work within the Roma community. Having endured centuries of oppression, they find it hard to trust institutions and to believe that they can enjoy full equality. If their situation is to change, Roma need to learn how to make use of the opportunities that society has to offer in education, employment and careers, not least by actively standing up to defend their human and civil rights. Social inclusion is thus a two-way process. </p>
<p>But that process can be managed. At the University of Manchester, I’ve been teaching a course unit on Romani language and culture since 1996. I have seen generations of students take a genuine interest in Romani customs and history, making this the topic of their essays and then taking it upon themselves to enlighten colleagues and acquaintances about this vulnerable minority once they graduated and took on professional careers. </p>
<p>As a university, we have encouraged local schools and Council agencies to engage with the Roma, and offered background information on Roma culture to teachers, police officers and Council officials. Together with the Big Life Company and Sure Start, we offered training and support to Roma youth. </p>
<p>After all these efforts, Manchester City Council now reports that school attendance rates of Roma are <a href="http://romani.humanities.manchester.ac.uk/migrom/docs/MCCRomaReport2013.pdf">outstripping those of non-Roma</a>. There are no complaints about Roma behaviour, and the police are publicly dismissing any claims of Roma criminality. Young Roma have taken up positions as mediators and classroom assistants; others have gone on to college and university, and some have won prizes for community volunteering. Prejudice has seemingly declined and Roma participation has increased. Manchester has made social inclusion possible for Roma – and other cities in Britain might wish to draw on this experience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/20982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yaron Matras receives funding from the ESRC and AHRC.</span></em></p>Those who follow the situation of Europe’s Roma know that there is never a “dull” week in which we don’t hear of accusations, abuse, or even violence against them. Most events do not grab major headlines…Yaron Matras, Professor of Linguistics, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/140612013-11-15T13:47:07Z2013-11-15T13:47:07ZGet ready for more scare tactics on EU immigrants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35315/original/nqj586w5-1384448549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">England: not so pleasant land if you're a migrant.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Freefoto</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brace yourself for more dire warnings about how Britain will be flooded next year by hordes of migrants from Bulgaria and Romania. This week’s <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3921062.ece">story in The Times</a> quotes figures from the Office for National Statistics which has calculated that 121,000 people from the two EU member states worked in Britain between July and September this year. The newspaper predicts that “thousands more are expected to head to Britain from January” – and quotes former home secretary David Blunkett predicting that riots would greet an “influx of Roma” to this country.</p>
<p>There is an obvious problem here: when we talk about “Roma”, it’s not clear who we mean. The UK has no distinct census category for them; while 57,000 people ticked the box marked “Gypsy/Traveller” in 2011, we have no way of knowing how many of those people might have been Roma from Central Europe. Many Roma will self-identify instead as Romanian, Bulgarian, Czech, or a different nationality. This leaves us to simply ascribe Roma identities to people we think fit the description. As a result, many estimates of the Roma population are based principally on highly inaccurate racial profiling.</p>
<p>This is indicative of the climate of fear that surrounds the “threat” of more East European immigration. Until a few years ago, few people in the UK knew much about Romanians or Bulgarians beyond post-Ceauşescu AIDS babies or cheap Black Sea holidays. Now we’re told to prepare not just for a new wave of Romanians and Bulgarians, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/20/nigel-farage-sets-challenge-immigration">but a new wave of crime</a> that they will inevitably bring with them. Romanians and Bulgarians are the new unwanted children from the other side of Europe, who threaten not only to derail Britain’s fragile economic recovery but also to unravel the very cultural fabric that knits the country together.</p>
<h2>Hordes, floods and swamps</h2>
<p>Romanians and Bulgarian migrants are widely depicted as a nightmarish threat – as a horde of unscrupulous benefit scroungers waiting to flood in and take jobs from honest British workers while threatening our way of life.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=873&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=873&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=873&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1097&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1097&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35307/original/bppyh967-1384443349.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1097&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Letting them in: Jack Straw has re-entered the EU migration debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Thompson/PA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This begs the question: how many is a horde? We don’t know. As Jack Straw’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/13/jack-straw-labour-mistake-poles">comments</a> in recent days have shown, predicting future patterns of immigration is a complex business. And even as Straw pointed to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/immigrants-boost-theeconomy-says-niesr-8921634.html">recent research</a> which showed that Polish immigrants were less, not more, likely to claim benefits than UK citizens, his comments will only fuel grandiose predictions about the coming influx. </p>
<p>Nigel Farage, for his part, tells us we should expect <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280749">“several hundred thousand”</a>, echoing a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10011412/BBC-accused-of-spinning-figures-on-Romanian-and-Bulgarian-migrants.html">BBC study</a> which claimed 350,000 Romanians and Bulgarians could be “looking for work” in the UK next year. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/182304/Migration_FOI.pdf">official estimates</a> of the numbers expected from Romania and Bulgaria predictably give much lower figures. </p>
<p>Most of these estimates, however, are highly problematic. Crucially, they privilege “push” factors (the notion that Romanians and Bulgarians want to leave home because the situation is so dire) over “pull” factors (the relative health of the economy in the UK), despite the fact that circumstances have dramatically changed since the mid-2000s: the million or so East Europeans who came to Britain after 2004 did so because there were lots of jobs available then. Given that far fewer are available now, we would surely expect fewer migrants to make the effort to come to try to get them. </p>
<p>But this remains a political numbers game: large, often inflated figures – presented with the help of liquid metaphors; floods, deluges, swamps, and streams – raise and amplify the scale of migration beyond our ability to rationally anticipate it and its consequences. Inaccurate and bloated predictions serve not to prepare us better for the arrival of new migrants but to redirect our attention to forestalling that arrival at any cost.</p>
<h2>Evidence versus rhetoric</h2>
<p>Back in 2007, Gordon Brown was quick to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7097837.stm">take a leaf out</a> of the <a href="http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/national/so-good-they-cant-help-stealing-them-labour-expenses-crook-half-inches-another-bnp-pol">BNP playbook</a> when he pronounced: “British jobs for British workers!” – ignoring that EU citizens have the <a href="http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/work/abroad/">same employment rights</a> as British citizens. If we really want British jobs for British workers, we’ll have wait to to vote for them in the 2017 EU referendum.</p>
<p>Yet still, last year, the press jumped on a report of the <a href="http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/sitecontent/documents/aboutus/workingwithus/mac/27-analysis-migration/01-analysis-report/analysis-of-the-impacts?view=Binary">Migration Advisory Committee</a> which summarised an array of studies of the impact of migration on the labour market. A single one of those studies noted an “association” between non-EU migration and job losses for British workers; but that this single finding was in fact heavily qualified mattered not to the headlines.</p>
<p>The fact is that East Europeans <a href="http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm67/6741/6741.pdf">filled a gap</a> at the low end of the employment market in 2004 - and continue to do so.</p>
<p>Another argument has it that those immigrants who aren’t taking our jobs must be claiming our benefits. But again, as EU citizens, these migrants have a legal entitlement to benefits, just as Britons have in other EU countries. There is a lot of rhetoric about “benefit scrounging” and “benefit shopping”, but this rhetoric is rarely backed by evidence - and as Jack Straw himself <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/immigrants-boost-theeconomy-says-niesr-8921634.html">mentioned</a>, the evidence that exists points the other way entirely. In fact, while post-1999 immigrants from the EEA have been credited with a net contribution to the economy, Brits themselves <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24813467">received</a> 11% more in benefits than they paid in taxes.</p>
<p>This evidence is consistent with the overall demographic profile of East European immigrants. They are disproportionately young, well-educated, and possessed of relevant skills – in other words, eminently employable. This is not the profile of a benefit scrounger; it’s the profile of a worker.</p>
<p>After the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22441280">Queen’s speech</a> last May, Cameron told MPs that he wanted to put an end to migrants coming to Britain and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22437884">“expecting something for nothing”</a>. For 10 years now, East Europeans have been taking jobs well below their qualifications, <a href="https://theconversation.com/revealed-immigrants-put-34-more-into-public-finances-than-they-take-out-19845">paying into the system more than they’ve been taking out</a> and generally doing their share to help this country inch along through an anaemic economic recovery. </p>
<p>If anyone’s getting something for nothing, it would seem that it would be Mr Cameron.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed in this article are based in part on research supported by the ESRC (grant number RES-000-22-33-58).</span></em></p>Brace yourself for more dire warnings about how Britain will be flooded next year by hordes of migrants from Bulgaria and Romania. This week’s story in The Times quotes figures from the Office for National…Jon Fox, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170782013-08-15T13:39:24Z2013-08-15T13:39:24ZMigration, not bigotry, is the answer to population problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29262/original/335mcm9t-1376488714.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victims of widespread discrimination: Roma people.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many papers <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2394211/100-Romanians-Bulgarians-job-Britain-day-official-figures-show.html">are full of</a> the latest population figures suggesting that the number of Romanians and Bulgarians arriving in the UK to work has increased by a third over the past year.</p>
<p>This is almost universally presented as a problem for the UK - <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3843194.ece">the stories stress</a> that this is “even before the restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians having full access to jobs are lifted in January” prompting “fears that large numbers will head to Britain next year”.</p>
<p>But you have to take a broader view about migration.
Populations are collapsing across many European countries, especially in the south. The economies <a href="http://www.workpermit.com/news/2008-01-14/europe/eu-needs-56-million-migrants-2050.htm">need young workforces</a> - someone has to work to pay for other people’s pensions. The population problem is there and it’s growing. </p>
<p>The politicians see the problem and one of the solutions is increased immigration. Regardless of how well these countries support their native populations to boost birth rates, Europe - especially continental Europe - is reaching the stage where <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Population_structure_and_ageing">population renewal</a> has been delayed for so long it can no longer catch up - so immigration will increasingly be needed to make up the shortfall in natural growth.</p>
<p>Population growth in the UK does not seem to be as important an issue as in continental Europe. In countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece populations are stagnating. These countries need new people and their governments need to introduce policies to attract new people. Yet those who may come are inevitably “foreigners” - and introducing this kind of workforce creates <a href="https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/working-papers/iser/2012-25.pdf">a number of concerns</a> among the wider population.</p>
<p>Voters worry about the way immigration will affect their jobs, they worry about changes to the culture they grew up with, the introduction of unfamiliar languages being spoken around them, new traditions, customs, celebrations and issues over what will happen to what they see as their sense of nationality. </p>
<p>When they face a “foreigner” – who may very well be the future Italian or Greek – the debate changes and public philosophy becomes very protective.</p>
<h2>Need migration - hate immigrants</h2>
<p>On the one hand, immigration is something that countries have become desperate for. On the other hand, individual citizens are unwilling to see new migrants as their future selves. It is difficult to convince voters. </p>
<p>When asked about immigration, it is very rare that the average person on the street will accept an immigrant coming in to do a job that they feel a “native” is able to do.</p>
<p>The average person rarely has a problem with a “foreigner” individually, but accepting a group becomes a different thing. It needs a transformation of mentality, getting used to new habits and, at times, integrating these habits into daily life. </p>
<p>You might know a Polish cleaning lady, have a Pakistani engineer working for you, or work under a Chinese boss and get on with them very well, but if you get 40,000 immigrants coming with their families then their arrival can turn into a conflict. It encourages the development of negative stereotypes and suspicions. This is a very common thing across Europe and beyond.</p>
<h2>Different tropes for different folks</h2>
<p>Inevitably, the immigration debate also varies across different countries. In the UK, the debate is not so much that the Poles are Poles and therefore we don’t want them, but the debate is about the fact they are economic migrants taking jobs that UK low-skilled workers could do. However, under the <a href="http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/european-single-market">European Union’s Single Market</a> rules you cannot make this distinction as long as any British citizen has the same rights to take up a job in another EU job market. </p>
<p>But in some other countries, such as <a href="http://www.english.rfi.fr/node/146684">France</a> and <a href="http://world.time.com/2013/08/13/switzerlands-xenophobia-its-not-just-about-oprah/">Switzerland</a>, it becomes more about ethnicity. This is becoming very clear with <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/04/world/europe/roma-still-shunned-in-france-ahead-of-eu-rules-change.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0">Roma people</a>. Countries don’t want them because they are Roma. It’s not because they are taking jobs, but because of who they are. </p>
<p>Even in states where immigrants are very few in number, such as Finland, Hungary and Turkey, the general public is against immigration; they are suspicious of difference in general (in the latter two cases this comes out as an aversion towards ethnic, religious, and sexual minorities).</p>
<p>Another example is the <a href="http://www.cfr.org/religion-and-politics/europe-integrating-islam/p8252">discourse surrounding Muslim populations</a> in some European countries where there is a concern about “what are we going to do with Muslims”, even if Muslims do not constitute a singular people and have been part of European geography for centuries. Nonetheless, stereotypes are rife and self-serving. </p>
<p>I Switzerland it remains <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/world/europe/30swiss.html">illegal to build a minaret</a>, which effectively prevents a population living legally in that country from pursuing their religion. This is justified under the premise that the Swiss urban landscape has developed organically since the middle-ages and the minaret has never traditionally played a role. It is unacceptable.</p>
<h2>Talent show</h2>
<p>Often politicians are more far-sighted than society in general. But the pro-immigration stance represents a political risk. No one wants to go out on the streets and say we need immigration. Instead the message is couched in a certain language, usually along the lines of: “We need the most talented migrants to come and work here and contribute to our economy”. Talent is a very relative concept of course and it depends much on the context. </p>
<p>You’ll hear this in most countries - but, ironically, if they want the most talented people, they appear to have made it extremely difficult for those people to come and work. These countries need to ask themselves why a talented person would want to put themselves through such cumbersome immigration processes. It has reached a stage that many people, even those who are keen to travel and work for a period, won’t put themselves through it.</p>
<p>During the economic boom, countries threw open their borders because this was seen as contributing to overall prosperity. Now the boom has passed and there is a totally different and much more negative discourse. The financial crisis across Europe has led to an enlargement fatigue, and a toughening in discourse in the United Kingdom and across the continent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Umut Korkut does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many papers are full of the latest population figures suggesting that the number of Romanians and Bulgarians arriving in the UK to work has increased by a third over the past year. This is almost universally…Umut Korkut, Reader, Glasgow School for Business and Society, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/127642013-03-26T03:32:28Z2013-03-26T03:32:28ZThe case of Jock Palfreeman and the human rights of Australians overseas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21160/original/jpqt3w9p-1363063344.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Every Parent's Nightmare tells the true story of Australian Jock Palfreeman, caught in Bulgaria's corrupt legal system.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC TV/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australians running into trouble with the law overseas is a common topic in the news. The coverage is usually fleeting, ending with the announcement of a conviction or, less often, an acquittal.</p>
<p>Belinda Hawkins’ recently released book <a href="http://everyparentsnightmare.com">Every Parent’s Nightmare</a> tells the story of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/no-way-out-20130211-2e796.html">Jock Palfreeman</a>, who was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/australian-gets-20-years-for-murder-in-bulgaria-20091203-k6p5.html">convicted for murder</a> in Bulgaria in December 2009 and sentenced to 20 years in jail. Palfreeman has <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/no-way-out-20130211-2e796.html">made headlines twice this year</a> for his hunger strike against prison authorities, after they refused to let him continue his studies, and the ongoing refusal by the Bulgarian government to allow Palfreeman to serve the remainder of his sentence in Australia. </p>
<p>Hawkins, a journalist with the ABC’s Australian Story, became curious about Palfreeman’s case in 2008 after being contacted by one of his friends.</p>
<p>Five years and seven trips to Bulgaria later, Hawkins has written a compelling book which takes the reader through the case chronologically, starting in December 2007 when Palfreeman’s family hears the news that he is in trouble. As far as his parents knew, he was in England, having recently enlisted in the British Army. In reality, he was on leave in Bulgaria with friends. He had been involved in a fight in St Nedelya Square in the capital Sofia with a tragic outcome – two young Bulgarian men were stabbed; one fatally.</p>
<p>The case is not a simple one, and there are many conflicting accounts of what occurred. Briefly, Palfreeman’s version of events is he saw a group of more than a dozen young men attacking two Roma people and rushed to their defence. He was (legally) carrying a friend’s butterfly knife, having experienced violence in Bulgaria on previous visits. He brandished the knife to ward off the attackers after they turned on him. He has no memory of stabbing anyone in the ensuing scuffle.</p>
<p>According to the prosecution, the story about the Roma was a concoction and Palfreeman was simply a dangerous sociopath who attacked Andrei Monov and his friends unprovoked. The fact the group was seen by independent witnesses throwing paving stones at Palfreeman was explained away as a defensive reaction after the stabbings.</p>
<p>Hawkins highlights several problems with the case, including unexplained failures to interview key witnesses and to secure relevant CCTV footage on the part of police, as well as a prejudicial pre‑trial interview with the prosecutor. She also details inconsistencies in statements from prosecution witnesses and raises serious doubts about the forensic pathology. Independent psychologists’ positive assessment of Palfreeman is ignored in favour of the assessment of the victim’s father, who also happens to be suing Palfreeman for damages arising out of the incident (as part of the same proceedings). Palfreeman’s own father is pressed into the demanding role of second counsel for the defence, despite his lack of legal training.</p>
<p>Hawkins’ account raises serious concerns about the fairness of Palfreeman’s trial. Bulgaria is party to both the <a href="http://www.echr.coe.int/ECHR/EN/Header/Basic+Texts/The+Convention+and+additional+protocols/The+European+Convention+on+Human+Rights/">European Convention on Human Rights</a> and the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CCPR.aspx">International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights</a>, which guarantee impartial tribunals and the presumption of innocence. Both of these seem to have been found wanting in this case.</p>
<p>Having previously worked as a legal adviser to an international NGO which aims to stamp out torture and other ill-treatment in detention, I was struck particularly by Hawkins’ descriptions of the conditions Palfreeman faced (indeed, still faces). He suffered a beating in the police van immediately after his arrest, and has since endured appalling prison conditions, including: </p>
<ul>
<li>being forced to heat food with razor blades fashioned into an element heated by wires inserted directly into the mains;</li>
<li>being asked, during a tuberculosis outbreak in the prison, to submit to a blood test with no guarantee of a clean needle;</li>
<li>being sent to solitary confinement in freezing temperatures for insisting on consistent enforcement of prison regulations.</li>
</ul>
<p>As recently as December last year, the <a href="http://www.cpt.coe.int/documents/bgr/2012-12-04-eng.htm">European Committee for the Prevention of Torture reported</a> that the Bulgarian prison system displays “disturbing levels of overcrowding”, material conditions which are “not acceptable” and health care which was not “worthy of the name”. </p>
<p>The book’s inevitably gloomy conclusion is lightened somewhat by the revelation that Palfreeman seems to have discovered a new purpose. With the help of the <a href="http://www.bghelsinki.org/en/">Bulgarian Helsinki Committee</a>, he has formed an official Prisoners Rehabilitation Association to advocate for prisoners’ rights – the first of its kind in Bulgaria. He is also planning to appeal his case to the <a href="http://www.echr.coe.int/ECHR/homepage_en">European Court of Human Rights</a>.</p>
<p>Although it could apply equally to Palfreeman’s family, the description “every parent’s nightmare” actually seems to have been inspired by the man who arranged Andrei Monov’s funeral. With the 20-year sentence confirmed by <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/palfreeman-loses-sentence-appeal-in-bulgaria-20110728-1i0np.html">Bulgaria’s highest court</a>, nightmare is certainly an apt description for the experience of both the Palfreemans and the Monovs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12764/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Fletcher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians running into trouble with the law overseas is a common topic in the news. The coverage is usually fleeting, ending with the announcement of a conviction or, less often, an acquittal. Belinda…Adam Fletcher, PhD Candidate, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.