tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/carbon-farming-2827/articlesCarbon farming – The Conversation2024-01-16T00:47:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198992024-01-16T00:47:49Z2024-01-16T00:47:49ZClimate change and nature loss are our biggest environmental problems - so why isn’t the market tackling them together?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569215/original/file-20240115-15-758bfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C14%2C9475%2C6302&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change and biodiversity loss are arguably the greatest environmental challenges the world faces. The way we use land is crucial in finding solutions to these problems. In theory, actions such as revegetation and avoiding land clearing can tackle both problems at once – for example, by simultaneously storing carbon in plants and providing habitat for animals.</p>
<p>Sometimes when taking these actions, however, carbon storage is prioritised at the expense of biodiversity. But that need not be the case. Our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00267-023-01928-4">new research</a> suggests we can act to boost the climate and nature at the same time. </p>
<p>We examined a financial incentive scheme in South Australia’s Mount Lofty Ranges. We found action by farmers to restore native woodlands on their properties also stored carbon in the vegetation. This carbon abatement, if converted into carbon credits, could have paid the farmers for their restoration activities. It suggests existing carbon markets can pay for biodiversity conservation.</p>
<p>To date, few market-based biodiversity schemes in Australia have been designed to reward farmers for delivering these twin benefits – and the same is true for carbon markets. This is a huge missed opportunity for both the climate and nature. </p>
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<img alt="view of vegetation and pastoral land" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569222/original/file-20240115-21-9uf1m2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The research examined woodland restoration by farmers in the Mount Lofty Ranges, pictured.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Carbon markets don’t always help nature</h2>
<p>Carbon markets encourage farmers and other land managers to help mitigate climate change, through activities such as planting trees or avoiding land clearing. These activities are rewarded with “credits” which can then be sold to buyers wanting to reduce their carbon footprint, such as a polluting company. Similar schemes are emerging for biodiversity conservation.</p>
<p>Efforts to tackle climate change through land-based activities are welcome. But these interventions do not always lead to good biodiversity outcomes. For example, a particular tree species planted to store carbon may not be useful to animals in the area. It may even cause problems such as <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2011.00213.x">spreading weeds</a>, which can add to biodiversity decline.</p>
<p>In Australia, the decline of native species and ecosystems is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/30/australian-populations-of-threatened-bird-species-fall-60-in-past-40-years-study-says#:%7E:text=They%20include%20the%20curlew%20sandpiper,decline%20since%202000%20was%202.2%25">well-documented</a>. The decline is marked in the eastern Mount Lofty Ranges where native vegetation – mostly eucalypt forests and woodlands – has been reduced to <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144779#pone-0144779-g001">about 10% of its former extent</a>.</p>
<p>It means many animal species in the Mount Lofty Ranges are <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13860">falling in numbers</a>. They include birds such as the diamond firetail, superb fairy-wren and purple-crowned lorikeet.</p>
<p>Reversing this decline requires restoring and protecting the native vegetation that feeds and homes these animals. We wanted to know if carbon markets could pay for such work. </p>
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<img alt="grey and red bird perches on branch" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569220/original/file-20240115-74302-84mc3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bird species such as the diamond firetail, pictured, are declining in the Mount Lofty Ranges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>We examined a payment <a href="https://data.environment.sa.gov.au/Content/Publications/bushbids_emlr_2008.pdf">scheme</a>, known as BushBids, for farmers who manage the region’s degraded woodlands. It was funded by the federal government and administered by the state government.</p>
<p>The scheme, which began in 2006, invited private landholders to tender for ten-year contracts to undertake certain restoration activities. These included retaining fallen logs (instead of collecting them for firewood), limiting stock grazing, controlling weeds, and reducing grazing by both feral animals and overabundant native animals such as kangaroos. Such activities can lead to more carbon being stored in vegetation, debris and soils.</p>
<p>Monitoring showed the activities restored some components of the woodland systems – most notably the diversity of native plant species.</p>
<p>The activities also led to additional carbon being stored in the woodlands. Australia’s <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Pages/Method-development.aspx">carbon market</a> does not currently recognise this type of carbon gain. </p>
<p>But what if it did? We calculated how much carbon was stored by the restoration of degraded native vegetation across 12 sites. We then calculated how much of the cost of this work would have been covered by payments for that carbon storage. </p>
<p>We found the additional carbon stored in the woodlands could pay all, or a substantial proportion, of the price of restoring degraded native vegetation. The exact proportion covered depends on factors such as the carbon price, rainfall and rate of vegetation recovery.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-markets-could-protect-nature-and-the-planet-but-only-if-the-rights-of-those-who-live-there-are-recognized-too-176638">Carbon markets could protect nature and the planet, but only if the rights of those who live there are recognized too</a>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dgqlI430p6U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video explaining the authors’ findings.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Implications for Australia</h2>
<p>Our study shows how the price of restoring native vegetation for biodiversity conservation could be covered by trading carbon credits created at the same time. This could be achieved either with separate markets, or markets that include both biodiversity and carbon.</p>
<p>But using markets for both nature repair and carbon storage will only work if the markets are designed well. </p>
<p>That means changes to Australia’s existing carbon market may be required. Research has cast doubt over the integrity of <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/project-and-contracts-registers/carbon-abatement-contract-register">more than half</a> the credits generated in that market. It found under one particular method – regrowing native forests to store carbon from the atmosphere – most carbon storage for which credits were issued either had not occurred, or would have occurred anyway.</p>
<p>Separately, the federal government has recently passed legislation to establish a <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-governments-new-market-mechanism-help-save-nature-yes-if-we-get-the-devil-out-of-the-detail-218713">biodiversity scheme</a> known as the Nature Repair Market. For this scheme to avoid making the same mistakes as the carbon scheme, it should involve methods and standards that lead to the right kinds of biodiversity restoration in the right places. </p>
<p>This means focusing on which species and ecosystems need protection. For example, it should include not just those species listed as threatened with extinction, but species declining in their strongholds, and where the decline of a species would have broader impacts such as damage to agriculture.</p>
<p>Australian farmers have demonstrated that they can restore degraded ecosystems in a cost-effective way – and they should have better access to carbon funding to do it. Done right, this can be a huge win-win for both nature and the climate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/untenable-even-companies-profiting-from-australias-carbon-market-say-the-system-must-change-190232">'Untenable': even companies profiting from Australia's carbon market say the system must change</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick O'Connor has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the South Australian, Victorian, New South Wales and Australian governments including the NSW Biodiversity Conservation Trust. He is a board director of the Nature Conservation Society of SA, a committee member of the Restoration Decade Alliance and a councillor of the Biodiversity Council..</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthelia Bond received a postgraduate research scholarship from the School of Agriculture Food and Wine at The University of Adelaide, a supplementary scholarship from the South Australian Department for Environment and Water, and an Australia Awards Endeavour Research Fellowship. She is a board director of the Nature Conservation Society of SA, and a member of the Ecological Society of Australia, Modern Money Lab and Scientist Rebellion. </span></em></p>Sometimes when taking these actions, however, carbon storage is prioritised at the expense of biodiversity. But that need not be the case.Patrick O'Connor, Associate Professor, University of AdelaideAnthelia Bond, Research Fellow, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167342023-11-22T19:09:37Z2023-11-22T19:09:37ZIf we do it right, we can replant trees and shrubs to store carbon – and restore biodiversity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557658/original/file-20231106-17-b5hxrg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C1024%2C676&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cristina Ramalho</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This is how carbon farming works. Farmers plant trees on abandoned farmland. The trees take in carbon from the atmosphere as they grow, acting as a natural sink to offset some emissions. For farmers, these carbon-storing plants pay off with carbon credits. </p>
<p>It sounds simple. But in recent years, the technique has <a href="https://theconversation.com/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short-and-problems-will-continue-to-fester-197401">come under fire</a> over claims the approach is not delivering the carbon credits required to offset Australia’s carbon emissions.</p>
<p>This comes amid a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/he-pioneered-carbon-offsets-to-save-tropical-forests-now-the-market-is-collapsing-18a5bc54">broader crisis of confidence</a> in carbon offsets and credits. </p>
<p>As a restoration scientist, I believe it’s good the industry gets more scrutiny. But we should not write off carbon farming. If done properly, carbon farming can also restore lost habitat and help tackle the global biodiversity crisis. As Earth loses more and more species, large-scale restoration is now essential.</p>
<p>We know keeping existing habitat and restoring degraded land to habitat <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000632072200386X">will benefit 86%</a> of the over 1,300 threatened species in Australia. At one well-run carbon farming initiative in southwestern Australia, for instance, we saw a rare malleefowl – a bird that is exceptionally fussy about where it lives. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two scientists looking at their revegetation project" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557657/original/file-20231106-28-avgbsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Restoration scientists Suzanne Prober and Tina Parkhurst contemplate a biodiverse carbon project 10 years after planting in south-western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rachel Standish</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Carbon farming can be a win-win – if done right</h2>
<p>There are good and bad ways to do carbon farming. It’s wrong to claim credits for the growth of native remnant vegetation caused by rainfall, for instance, rather than regrowth after ending livestock grazing or other deliberate human intervention. It’s also wrong to claim credits for “avoided deforestation” – leaving vegetation intact when it was never intended to be cleared. We should also avoid planting trees in grasslands, which have their own set of species and should not be replaced. </p>
<p>Some carbon farming efforts have been run like plantations, where you plant a single fast-growing species such as blue mallee. The <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/work-with-us/services/consultancy-strategic-advice-services/csiro-futures/innovation-business-growth/australian-national-outlook">assumption here</a> is monocultures like this store more carbon than a mix of species. </p>
<p>But we and other researchers have found this isn’t the case. Planting a diverse range of trees – like in a real forest – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112722004911">can store just as much carbon</a> as monocultures. </p>
<p>Shrubs store less carbon than trees but play an important role in restoration. Their tangle of branches and leaves can offer safe harbour for smaller birds, for instance. Shrubs also <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2688-8319.12097#:%7E:text=Our%20results%20show%20that%20active,similar%20to%20the%20fallow%20cropland.">boost projects’ resilience</a> to drought and fire as they respond differently, which helps in recovery. </p>
<p>There would be no penalty to farmers for planting shrubs if the government’s planned <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/environmental-markets/nature-repair-market">nature repair market</a> comes into force. Biodiverse projects could earn both carbon and biodiversity credits. </p>
<p>This would open the door to a win-win. Carbon-farming efforts could double as nature restoration projects, if we avoid tree monocultures and focus on restoring biodiversity while storing carbon. Australia has <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2664.14008">13 million hectares of degraded land</a>, meaning there’s plenty of room for restoration without taking farmland or compromising agricultural production. </p>
<h2>Australia could benefit</h2>
<p>As critics of carbon farming have pointed out, carbon credits from tree planting can be rubbery. But we shouldn’t tar all projects with the same brush. </p>
<p>Tree planting is one of four methods of farming with native vegetation for carbon credits. Of 540 vegetation projects registered with the Emissions Reduction Fund between 2012 and 2019, 118 were tree and shrub planting projects.</p>
<p>In Australia, a number of companies are offering high-integrity carbon credits from biodiverse native tree planting projects, such as <a href="https://carbonpositiveaustralia.org.au/learn/about-us/">Carbon Positive Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.greeningaustralia.org.au/">Greening Australia</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bkconnection.com/static/The_Restoration_Economy_EXCERPT.pdf">Nature restoration</a> is likely to become more attractive to investors because of the potential for growth in natural capital and employment. </p>
<p>As much as restoration is needed, so too is ongoing care such as feral animal control and leaving <a href="https://grist.org/article/leaving-trees-standing-might-be-more-important-than-planting-new-ones/?utm_campaign=site-share-button-email">remnant vegetation intact</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-central-climate-policy-pays-people-to-grow-trees-that-already-existed-taxpayers-and-the-environment-deserve-better-186900">Australia’s central climate policy pays people to grow trees that already existed. Taxpayers – and the environment – deserve better</a>
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<p>Climate change is, unfortunately, threatening the environmental restoration which can help reduce its effects. In dryland Australia, drought makes it harder for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11258-011-9922-2">seedlings to survive</a> and for trees or shrubs to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/geb.12962">grow well even once established</a>. </p>
<p>While many of Australia’s native plants are tough enough to weather fires, more frequent fires make it harder to bounce back. Plants need time between fires to grow rootstock and develop seed banks. </p>
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<span class="caption">We have been researching how mixed-species revegetation efforts store carbon at the University of Western Australia’s research farm Ridgefield.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rachel Standish</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Biodiversity matters</h2>
<p>When we talk about biodiversity, we’re talking about the richness of life. </p>
<p>To date, Australia’s carbon farming efforts vary a great deal in how they protect biodiversity. Think of the difference in walking through a blue mallee or sugar gum plantation – where there are few birds or other species – compared to walking through a patch of native forest. Some carbon farms <a href="https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ppp3.10329#:%7E:text=Research%20suggests%20that%20the%20reforestation,et%20al.%2C%202007">can be diverse</a>. </p>
<p>Restoration efforts which attract more species <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/emr.12426">will come to function</a> more like a true native ecosystem typical of their region. </p>
<p>This is not to say restoration work is easy. Turning a weed-filled paddock worn down by decades of agricultural use <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.2547">is tough</a>. Even native species such as kangaroos and emus can become challenges by eating seedlings.</p>
<p>Treating experimentation as part of practice and publicly reporting successes and failures can help the industry progress. For instance, our restoration research has found <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2688-8319.12097">native shrubs return</a> if given the chance – but not understorey species. </p>
<h2>In defence of carbon farming</h2>
<p>Carbon farming is new. While some efforts may well be aimed at gaming the system, there are many others genuinely seeking ways of using nature to store the carbon we’ve released into the atmosphere. As this new approach progresses, there will be failures. But a failure is not necessarily greenwashing. </p>
<p>And as Australia, like <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org">many other nations</a>, sets ambitious restoration targets to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-historic-cop15-outcome-is-an-imperfect-game-changer-for-saving-nature-heres-why-australia-did-us-proud-196731">protect 30% of land and sea</a> by 2030, we will need to experiment, innovate, work alongside Traditional Owners and plan to be there for the long term. </p>
<p>We are already seeing hopeful signs restoration work does yield benefits for at least some species, such as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/rec.13605">ants</a> and <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.14148">woodland birds</a>. </p>
<p>Restoration can work: for us, for climate and for our species. Let’s make sure it does work. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-fix-australias-approach-to-soil-carbon-credits-so-they-really-count-towards-our-climate-goals-210880">Here's how to fix Australia's approach to soil carbon credits so they really count towards our climate goals</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Standish receives funding from the ARC and the Transformation in Mining Economies CRC. She has worked on Greening Australia properties but has not received funding for this work.
</span></em></p>Carbon farming has its problems, but we shouldn’t write it off. After all, good projects can store carbon – and bring back habitat.Rachel Standish, Associate Professor, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108802023-09-29T01:25:27Z2023-09-29T01:25:27ZHere’s how to fix Australia’s approach to soil carbon credits so they really count towards our climate goals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550802/original/file-20230928-21-n9ydfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C0%2C9290%2C6331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/female-farmer-hold-soil-hands-monitoring-2346686237">William Edge, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s plan to achieve <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">net zero</a> greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 relies heavily on carbon credits. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/About-the-Emissions-Reduction-Fund">credits are awarded to projects</a> that avoid the release of greenhouse gases or remove and “sequester” (store) carbon so it’s no longer warming the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Farmers can be awarded credits for <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Agricultural-methods/estimating-soil-organic-carbon-sequestration-using-measurement-and-models-method">increasing soil carbon content</a>. The federal government or companies can then purchase these credits to offset their carbon emissions. </p>
<p>These credits must represent genuine carbon sequestration if they are to mitigate climate change. </p>
<p>As Australian agricultural and soil scientists, we have serious concerns about the way credits are awarded for soil carbon sequestration under the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/OSR/ANREU/types-of-emissions-units/australian-carbon-credit-units">Australian carbon credit unit scheme</a>. There are four main issues with the method that must be addressed as a matter of urgency.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ymy0IO7nizw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Soil organic carbon is the treasure beneath our feet (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">US scheme used by Australian farmers reveals the dangers of trading soil carbon to tackle climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>Understanding the carbon cycle</h2>
<p>Much like water, carbon cycles through the environment, moving between plants, the earth and the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Plants take in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they grow. The carbon is stored in the plant tissue. When plants die, or drop leaves, this carbon-rich organic matter enters the soil. Then it decomposes, releasing carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When carbon inputs from plants exceed losses from the decomposition of organic matter, the amount of soil carbon increases. That means soil organic carbon is more likely to increase during good seasons when there’s plenty of rainfall available to support plant growth – such as during the recent three-year period of consecutive La Niña events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic illustrating how carbon cycles through agricultural systems" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550131/original/file-20230925-15-sf72i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The carbon cycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Eckard, University of Melbourne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Increases need to be due to management</h2>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-06-24/aus-farmers-to-earn-money-from-soil-carbon-under-new-methods/102213244">tranche</a> of credits awarded to soil carbon projects raises similar concerns to those that have been raised by experts about <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-central-climate-policy-pays-people-to-grow-trees-that-already-existed-taxpayers-and-the-environment-deserve-better-186900">credits awarded to trees</a>. Namely, carbon credits are being awarded for changes associated with seasonal conditions (changes that would have happened anyway) rather than human actions.</p>
<p>The current soil carbon method awards credits when an increase in soil organic carbon is detected between two points in time. This is problematic because it can award credits to projects that report increases during relatively wet periods. </p>
<p>This is the case for <a href="https://carbonlink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/CarbonLink-ACCUs-Flow-Media-Release-June-2023-1.pdf">projects sampled in 2021</a>, directly after a period where conditions were unusually favourable for plant growth. That means credits were awarded for sequestration that had more to do with the weather than good management. </p>
<p>Where crediting occurs due to seasonal conditions, the scheme is not providing any true (<a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/what_the_beare_and_chambers_report_really_found_and_a_critique_of_its_method_16_march_2022.pdf">additional</a>) climate change mitigation. </p>
<h2>Soil carbon can be lost</h2>
<p>Where soil carbon losses are greater than inputs, soil carbon stocks decline and sequestered carbon is released back to the atmosphere. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720301286">emissions can be rapid</a> and considerable. </p>
<p>Furthermore, modelling indicates it’s likely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.09.041">soil carbon could be lost</a> under the warmer and drier conditions of future climates. </p>
<p>Where a project loses soil carbon, the legislation does not require excess credits to be returned. Rather, a scheme-wide <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Risk-of-reversal-buffer">buffer</a> generated from all sequestration projects covers such losses. </p>
<p>This approach is inequitable because all projects share the same burden of maintaining the buffer, irrespective of the risk of reversal of individual projects. </p>
<h2>Overinflated sequestration rates</h2>
<p>Based on a <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.1473?__cf_chl_tk=1zpwtYjrpjjoZAaRpgcOb5o7R5c_fLaqDx0tadA0kWA-1693540306-0-gaNycGzND1A">comprehensive global analysis</a>, the <a href="https://carbonlink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/CarbonLink-ACCUs-Flow-Media-Release-June-2023-1.pdf">number of carbon credits generated</a> by some Australian projects appears unrealistically high. The most likely reason for these large values is high rainfall, but the way the method works makes it impossible to know for sure because the impacts of management are not identified.</p>
<p>This is not the first time a soil carbon project has made <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">unrealistic claims</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://carbonlink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/CarbonLink-ACCUs-Flow-Media-Release-June-2023-1.pdf">one project saw 44%</a> of the increase in soil carbon at depths below 30cm. This is an issue because published studies show soil carbon changes in deeper soil are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880923002785">relatively small</a> and happen slowly. We are concerned the reported changes may have more to do with the way they were calculated. </p>
<p>Currently, data used to calculate credits are not released by the scheme regulator so cannot be scientifically verified. The release of data under strict non-disclosure arrangements would allow scientists to assess the implementation of the method. This would provide confidence credits generated represent real climate change mitigation. </p>
<p>Increased transparency was a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/independent-review-accu-exec-summary.pdf">key recommendation</a> of the <a href="https://oia.pmc.gov.au/published-impact-analyses-and-reports/chubb-review-australian-carbon-credit-units">Chubb Review</a> of Australian Carbon Credit Units in 2022. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short-and-problems-will-continue-to-fester-197401">Chubb review of Australia's carbon credit scheme falls short – and problems will continue to fester</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1707172133288149265"}"></div></p>
<h2>Contributing to our emissions targets?</h2>
<p>Australia’s emissions are reported annually to the United Nations in the national <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-inventory-reports">greenhouse gas inventory</a>. These annual inventories show progress towards our declared emissions reduction targets. </p>
<p>The current inventory method used to account for changes in soil carbon uses coarse regional-level statistics. Changes to practices at farm level, such as grazing management, are not detected and will not be reflected in our national greenhouse gas accounts. Further, Australia reports changes in soil carbon for the top 30cm of the soil only whereas carbon credits are also awarded for changes that occur deeper in the soil. </p>
<p>This means some soil carbon credits the Australian government purchases do not count toward our emissions targets. It calls into question the effectiveness of using taxpayer funds to purchase soil carbon credits as a policy tool.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-relies-on-controversial-offsets-to-meet-climate-change-targets-we-might-not-get-away-with-it-in-egypt-193460">Australia relies on controversial offsets to meet climate change targets. We might not get away with it in Egypt</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Getting it right</h2>
<p>To address the issues we have identified, the measurement-based soil carbon <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Agricultural-methods/estimating-soil-organic-carbon-sequestration-using-measurement-and-models-method">method</a> needs to be revised to only credit increases due to management. For instance, <a href="https://verra.org/methodologies/vm0042-methodology-for-improved-agricultural-land-management-v2-0/">the Verra scheme</a> in the international voluntary carbon market uses a method that minimises crediting for increases associated with rainfall. </p>
<p>To support revision of Australia’s scheme, scientists should be granted access to project data. Data could to be used to improve models in order to distinguish between climate and management effects. This would ensure the method is fit for purpose. </p>
<p>There also needs to be greater focus on monitoring changes in soil carbon. For a start, Australia’s <a href="https://www.tern.org.au/">Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network</a> should be extended to include agricultural land. This would provide data to increase transparency, independence and rigour of soil carbon estimates. </p>
<p>The revisions we propose would help ensure investment in carbon credits contributes to our national emissions reduction targets and addresses the urgent challenge of climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tonne-of-fossil-carbon-isnt-the-same-as-a-tonne-of-new-trees-why-offsets-cant-save-us-200901">A tonne of fossil carbon isn't the same as a tonne of new trees: why offsets can't save us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Simmons is a Senior Research Scientist with the NSW Department of Primary Industries. Aaron has received funding from the Commonwealth and NSW governments for soil carbon research and policy development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annette Cowie is a Senior Principal Research Scientist in the Climate Branch at the NSW Department of Primary Industries, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Environmental and Rural Science at the University of New England. She has received funding for soil carbon research from NSW and Commonwealth government programs. Annette is a member of Soil Science Australia, a not-for-profit, professional association for soil scientists, and on the Advisory Board of Australia New Zealand Biochar Industry Group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Beverley Henry is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Queensland University of Technology. She has previously worked for, and received funding from, the Commonwealth and Queensland Governments, and has, or has previously held, science consulting and advisory roles with Australian and international government and agricultural organisations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Wilson is a Professor in Terrestrial Carbon Management at the University of New England. He has received funding from the Commonwealth and State Government and from the Cotton Research and Development Corporation for research relevant to soil carbon.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Pannell is a professor in environmental economics and agricultural economics at the University of Western Australia. He has received funding from the Commonwealth Government and from Grains Research and Development Corporation for research relevant to soil carbon. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Rowlings is a Professor in Sustainable Agriculture at Queensland University of Technology. He receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia and Department Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for soil carbon research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elaine Mitchell is a Research Fellow at the Queensland University of Technology. She has received funding from the Commonwealth Government for soil carbon research. She is also the founder of Ecometric, which provides advisory services in the natural capital space, including advice to carbon project developers on approaches to stratification, soil sampling and soil carbon modelling.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Tom Harrison is an Associate Professor at the University of Tasmania. He has been awarded funding from State and Commonwealth Governments, as well as Research Development Corporations to research practices, skills and technologies for improving soil organic carbon sequestration.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Grace is Professor Global Change at Queensland University of Technology. He currently receives funding from the Grains Research and Development Corporation, Meat and Livestock Australia, the Dept of Climate Change Energy Environment and Water, National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Scheme - Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, AgriFutures, and AgriMix. He has previously received funding from the Clean Energy Regulator, the Dept of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, and Cotton Research and Development Corporation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raphael Viscarra Rossel is a Professor of Soil and Landscape Science at Curtin University. Previously, he was a Senior Principal Research Scientist at CSIRO, where he received funding from the Commonwealth Government for developing innovative soil carbon measurement methods that aided the formulation of the soil carbon methodology.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eckard receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia and the Commonwealth of Australia on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and carbon farming. His science contributed to six Australian carbon credit methods. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Warwick Badgery is a Research Leader with the NSW Department of Primary Industries and is an Honorary Senior Fellow at Melbourne University. He receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia, the NSW and Federal Governments for research on climate mitigation and soil carbon. </span></em></p>A group of agricultural and soil scientists has serious concerns about the way credits are awarded for soil carbon sequestration in Australia.Aaron Simmons, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, University of New EnglandAnnette Cowie, Adjunct Professor, University of New EnglandBeverley Henry, Adjunct Associate Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyBrian Wilson, Professor, University of New EnglandDavid Pannell, Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy, The University of Western AustraliaDavid Rowlings, Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyElaine Mitchell, Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyMatthew Tom Harrison, Associate Professor of Sustainable Agriculture, University of TasmaniaPeter Grace, Professor of Global Change, Queensland University of TechnologyRaphael Viscarra Rossel, Professor of Soil & Landscape Science, Curtin UniversityRichard Eckard, Professor & Director, Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre, The University of MelbourneWarwick Badgery, Research Leader Pastures an Rangelands, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100662023-07-31T04:21:28Z2023-07-31T04:21:28ZFire in northern Australia’s tropical savanna is a threat to endangered fairy-wrens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538943/original/file-20230724-29-6y7d1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=209%2C383%2C2977%2C1685&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Niki Teunissen/AWC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wildfire threatens the survival of endangered <a href="https://ebird.org/species/pucfai2?siteLanguage=en_AU">purple-crowned fairy-wrens</a> living along the rivers and creeks of northern Australia, our new research has found.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/15-years-of-research-reveals-secrets-of-rare-purple-crowned-fairywrens/">almost two decades</a>, we studied the fairy-wrens at a <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/where-we-work/mornington-marion-downs/">wildlife sanctuary</a> in the far north of Western Australia. </p>
<p>Over this time, one low-intensity fire and one high-intensity fire burnt through our study site. Both occurred late in the wet season, when fires generally burn at lower intensity. But drought and weather conditions meant the second fire unexpectedly burnt at high intensity instead. </p>
<p>We wanted to find out what happened to the birds before, during and after each fire. We found even low-intensity burns reduced population density. As this species is a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2011.02331.x">biological indicator</a> of ecosystem health, our <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.14463">new research</a>
can help fine-tune fire management practices, to reduce the extent and intensity of fires along waterways. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A male purple-crowned fairy-wren with food in his beak, among plants on the river bank." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540082/original/file-20230731-234595-iw5lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Purple-crowned fairy-wrens indicate habitat health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Niki Teunissen/AWC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/savanna-burning-carbon-pays-for-conservation-in-northern-australia-12185">Savanna burning: carbon pays for conservation in northern Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fire in the tropics</h2>
<p>Fire is particularly <a href="https://fireecology.springeropen.com/articles/10.4996/fireecology.0301048">common</a> in tropical monsoonal savanna. The vegetation thrives during the wet season, then dries out over the dry season. This creates plenty of fuel late in the dry season, leading to frequent fires. </p>
<p>Deliberately introducing fire in the early dry season, when fires generally burn at low intensity, can reduce large intense wildfires later in the year. So fire management is often used for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13198">conservation</a> and <a href="https://www.icin.org.au/">carbon farming</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A creek with plants growing on the bank" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538944/original/file-20230724-29-yla81f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riparian zones provide vital habitat and support a range of species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Niki Teunissen/AWC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But approaches to fire management that best protect “riparian” communities are relatively poorly understood. Riparian zones are the strips of vegetation along creeks and rivers. They play an important role in tropical savanna landscapes. They support a highly <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00439.x">diverse range of species</a>, provide corridors for animals to move through the landscape, and form a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0205156">cool refuge</a> from heat and drought. </p>
<p>Unfortunately they are also particularly <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13794">sensitive to fire</a>, making it ever more urgent to better protect these key places. </p>
<p>Understanding how riparian fire affects the species that depend on waterway vegetation for their entire life cycle is a good place to start. </p>
<h2>Fairy-wrens and fire</h2>
<p>We study a population of 200-300 <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=64442">purple-crowned fairy-wrens</a> (<em>Malurus coronatus coronatus</em>) along 15km of waterways. </p>
<p>Each bird in this population has been tagged with a unique small coloured leg band. This enables us to recognise individuals and follow them throughout their life. </p>
<p>We gather detailed information on bird survival, movement and reproduction. This is key to quantifying how – and to what extent – fire impacts populations.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Landscape after fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538969/original/file-20230724-29-2q5eep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-intensity fire greatly reduced the quality of riparian habitat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Roast/AWC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study we found both low-intensity and high-intensity fire reduced the number of fairy-wrens in the burnt areas for at least two and a half years. The effect of high-intensity fire was much stronger, reducing the number of fairy-wrens by half.</p>
<p>Next, we investigated what mechanism caused these declines. We showed birds did not move out of burnt habitat, probably because they live in such well-defined territories year-round. </p>
<p>Instead, we found the low-intensity fire reduced breeding success by 80% during and shortly after the fire. </p>
<p>The high-intensity fire caused a decline in wrens through a different mechanism. We found birds in the fire-affected area were no more likely to die during the fire itself than birds in adjacent unburnt areas. Yet, they were 30% more likely to die over the next two to eight months after the fire. </p>
<p>This is probably because the quality of the riparian habitat was greatly reduced by this fire, which may have made it harder for the birds to find food, cover from predators, or find protection from the heat in subsequent months. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A purple-crowned fairy-wren and nest among plants on the river bank." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538999/original/file-20230724-19-yf2s2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Low-intensity fire reduces breeding success of purple-crowned fairy-wrens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Niki Teunissen/AWC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Protecting riparian zones from fire</h2>
<p>Wildfires are becoming more <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221001299">frequent and severe</a> as climate change worsens. These changes are <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb0355">transforming natural systems</a> and threatening the diversity of life on Earth. We saw this in Australia in 2019-20, when the <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Black Summer fires</a> pushed many species closer to extinction.</p>
<p>More frequent and severe fire is forecast for riparian zones, for various reasons. For example, extended droughts as well as large flood events (which deposit woody debris as fuel for fire), <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-007-9048-5">increase the risk</a> of severe riparian fires. Additionally, riparian strips can become a corridor for fire under certain conditions.</p>
<p>The challenge for land managers is to minimise the impact of fire when it eventually enters the riparian zone. We suggest fire management can be used to reduce the extent and intensity of riparian fires. In particular, we recommend introducing low-intensity burns parallel and perpendicular to riparian zones so they have minimal impact yet create breaks along these riparian corridors, to prevent large sections burning at once.</p>
<p>Our study indicates the high sensitivity of riparian zones to fire, even when fire occurs during the wet season and burns at low intensity. Our findings call for more consideration by fire managers of the effects of fire on riparian habitat, and for further research to enhance our understanding of savanna riparian fire biology.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A male purple-crowned fairy-wren, among plants on the river bank." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538945/original/file-20230724-17-2n8a26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Individual birds in this study can be recognised by their coloured leg bands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Niki Teunissen/AWC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">The world's best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it's led by Indigenous land managers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p><em>Our research was conducted in collaboration with scientists and land managers from Charles Darwin University and the Australian Wildlife Conservancy.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Niki Teunissen received funding from Monash University and the Australian Research Council, and holds an Adjunct Research Associate position at Monash University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Peters receives funding and support from Australian Research Council, Monash University and Australian Wildlife Conservancy.</span></em></p>A study of purple-crowned fairy-wrens offers lessons for fire management along waterways in tropical savanna ecosystems.Niki Teunissen, Postdoctoral researcher, Wageningen UniversityAnne Peters, Professor, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1974012023-01-09T05:34:07Z2023-01-09T05:34:07ZChubb review of Australia’s carbon credit scheme falls short – and problems will continue to fester<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503573/original/file-20230109-23-q8dj3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C30%2C5074%2C3362&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jeremy Ng/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An independent <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/independent-review-accus">review</a> of Australia’s controversial carbon credit system released today concluded the scheme is essentially sound. But key questions remain unaddressed – a fact that will continue to undermine confidence in Australia’s central climate policy. </p>
<p>The review, led by former chief scientist Ian Chubb, followed <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/news-and-events/news/australia%E2%80%99s-carbon-market-fraud-environment">concerns</a> raised by our research team that the scheme lacked integrity and was not delivering genuine reductions in greenhouses gas emissions. The review panel, however, says it does “not share this view”.</p>
<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen on Monday said the government accepted all 16 of the review panel’s recommendations.</p>
<p>But more must be done to ensure the Albanese government truly delivers the emissions reductions it has promised.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smoke stack in front of setting sun" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503574/original/file-20230109-11-n3uuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government has accepted the review’s recommendations – but more must be done to ensure genuine carbon abatement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charlie Riedel/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon credits underpin our climate policy</h2>
<p>Australia’s carbon credit system is central to reaching the federal government goal of 43% emissions reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050.</p>
<p>The scheme provides carbon credits to projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions using a number of approved methods, such as avoiding deforestation. These credits can be sold on the carbon market to entities that want to offset their emissions. </p>
<p>In March last year, our research team raised <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/news-and-events/news/australia%E2%80%99s-carbon-market-fraud-environment">serious concerns</a> about the scheme. In a <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/research/publications">series of papers</a>, we outlined systemic flaws in the way carbon credits were issued. </p>
<p>We concluded Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund – under which the scheme operates – has serious governance flaws, has issued a large number of low integrity credits and is wasting billions of dollars in taxpayers’ money.</p>
<p>Our analysis focused on three of the fund’s most popular methods – avoiding deforestation, human-induced regeneration of native forests and combusting methane from landfills. These account for 75% of the credits issued under the scheme.</p>
<p>We found that more than 70% of the credits issued under these methods do not represent genuine emissions abatement.</p>
<p>Following that criticism, in July last year, the Albanese government commissioned an independent review of the scheme. Those findings were released today.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="farm scene with trees and crops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author’s research found more than 70% of the credits issued under a number of carbon farming methods do not represent genuine emissions abatement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix-185894">We blew the whistle on Australia's central climate policy. Here's what a new federal government probe must fix</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A ‘bewildering’ assessment</h2>
<p>The panel <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/independent-review-accu-final-report.pdf">concluded</a> the carbon credit arrangements are largely sound. How the panel reached this conclusion is hard to fathom.</p>
<p>Discussion of the rules governing human-induced regeneration, landfill gas and avoided deforestation projects spans less than six pages. </p>
<p>The report does not contain references to the evidence relied upon to reach its conclusions, and includes very little analysis to support its findings. And importantly, the panel does not address key questions around the integrity of the scheme’s rules.</p>
<p>Bewilderingly, in its assessment of the methods, the panel does not refer to the findings of a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/review-four-methods-generating-australian-carbon-credit-units.pdf">review</a> it commissioned from the Australian Academy of Science to inform its considerations.</p>
<p>The academy reviewed the three main methods my research team analysed and a fourth, concerning carbon capture and storage.</p>
<p>It found numerous flaws in the methods and the associated governance processes. For example, consistent with our analysis, it found a risk the human-induced regeneration method is crediting vegetation change brought on by rainfall, rather than project activities.</p>
<p>The academy also found problems with the landfill gas method – namely, that so-called “baselines” used to calculate carbon abatement don’t adequately account for other financial and regulatory incentives offered to operators for capturing and combusting methane. </p>
<p>This means credits are sometimes issued for actions the industry would take anyway. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/untenable-even-companies-profiting-from-australias-carbon-market-say-the-system-must-change-190232">I wrote</a> in The Conversation in September last year, so great are the problems with the landfill gas method that several large companies profiting from it have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-06/companies-making-money-from-carbon-credits-speak-out/101400566">called for</a> changes to the system. </p>
<p>The academy is not alone in recognising these problems. The <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/independent-review-of-accu/submission/view/150">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Final-Chubb-Submission_Wentworth-Group.pdf">Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists</a> also found problems with the rules governing the issuance of credits.</p>
<p>The review panel acknowledged the scientific evidence criticising the carbon credit scheme, but says “it was also provided with evidence to the contrary”. Yet it did not disclose what that evidence was or what it relates to. The public is simply expected to trust that the evidence exists.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pipes collecting methane from site" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483646/original/file-20220909-20-6tx20f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The landfill gas industry says credits are sometimes issued for actions the industry would take anyway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/untenable-even-companies-profiting-from-australias-carbon-market-say-the-system-must-change-190232">'Untenable': even companies profiting from Australia's carbon market say the system must change</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Integrity is essential</h2>
<p>The panel recommended significant changes to governance arrangements under the carbon credits scheme. It’s hard to understand the need for such changes if there are no material problems with the credits.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, most recommended governance changes are welcome, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>reducing the roles performed by the Clean Energy Regulator, to “enhance confidence and transparency” and reduce potential conflicts of interest</p></li>
<li><p>amend the scheme’s legislation to improve transparency to support greater public trust and confidence in the scheme.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>But these governance changes are not enough. Measures should be taken to prevent low-integrity credits being issued to existing projects. And polluting facilities should not be allowed to use low-integrity credits to meet their emission reduction obligations.</p>
<p>Without these changes, problems with the scheme will continue to fester, jeopardising the operation of the government’s climate policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-relies-on-controversial-offsets-to-meet-climate-change-targets-we-might-not-get-away-with-it-in-egypt-193460">Australia relies on controversial offsets to meet climate change targets. We might not get away with it in Egypt</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Macintosh consults to various organisations about the carbon market and other environmental markets. He is also a Director of Paraway Pastoral Co., which has ERF projects. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Butler receives funding from the Australian Government and also consults to various organisations about the carbon market and other environmental markets. </span></em></p>More must be done to ensure the Albanese government truly delivers the emissions reductions it has promised.Andrew Macintosh, Professor and Director of Research, ANU Law School, Australian National UniversityDon Butler, Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1869002022-07-14T20:03:25Z2022-07-14T20:03:25ZAustralia’s central climate policy pays people to grow trees that already existed. Taxpayers – and the environment – deserve better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474020/original/file-20220714-9155-8zz34h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C0%2C5179%2C2933&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has launched an <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/independent-review-accus">independent review</a> of Australia’s central climate policy, the Emissions Reduction Fund, <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/news-and-events/news/australia%E2%80%99s-carbon-market-fraud-environment">after we</a> and others raised serious concerns about its integrity.</p>
<p>The review will examine, among other issues, whether several ways of earning credits under the scheme lead to genuine emissions reductions.</p>
<p>One method singled out for scrutiny involves regrowing native forests to store carbon from the atmosphere. </p>
<p><a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/research/publications">Our new analysis</a> suggests the vast majority of carbon storage credited under this method either has not occurred, or would have occurred anyway. Here we explain why.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in suit speaks in front of flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474022/original/file-20220714-8948-wv4538.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has announced a review of the Emissions Reduction Fund.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Saphore/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The background</h2>
<p>The Emissions Reduction Fund provides carbon credits to projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For the past decade, it has been the centrepiece of Australia’s climate policy.</p>
<p>Under the fund, projects that reduce emissions receive carbon credits that can be sold to the federal government and private entities that are required, or choose to, offset their emissions.</p>
<p>We are experts in environmental law, markets and policy. The lead author of this article, Andrew Macintosh, is the former chair of the Emissions Reduction Assurance Committee, the government-appointed watchdog that oversees the Emissions Reduction Fund’s methods.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, we went public with details of serious integrity issues in the scheme. One main concern involves <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Vegetation-methods/Human-Induced%20regeneration%20of%20a%20permanent%20even-aged%20native%20forest">a method</a> known as “human-induced regeneration of a permanent even-aged native forest”. </p>
<p>This method <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/project-and-contracts-registers/project-register">accounts for</a> almost 30% of the carbon credits that have been issued, roughly 30% of registered projects, and <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/project-and-contracts-registers/carbon-abatement-contract-register">more than 50%</a> of carbon credits contracted for sale to the federal government.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix-185894">We blew the whistle on Australia's central climate policy. Here's what a new federal government probe must fix</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="steam flows from chimney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474023/original/file-20220714-17585-ron91w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Companies can offset emissions by buying carbon credits under the scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Problems with the method</h2>
<p>Under the method, landholders get credits for regenerating native forests by changing the way they manage their properties.</p>
<p>When the method was created, it was assumed projects would be located in areas where vegetation had previously been cleared, and where grazing and repeated clearing were suppressing regrowth. </p>
<p>But most projects have been located in parts of Australia’s arid and semi-arid <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/natural-resources/vegetation/rangelands">rangelands</a> where native vegetation has never been cleared (because it is not economic to do so). </p>
<p>There are two main problems with the method and how it’s been applied. We outline these below.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-white-colonisation-of-the-atmosphere-its-time-to-tackle-this-entrenched-racism-185579">Climate change is white colonisation of the atmosphere. It's time to tackle this entrenched racism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of Australia showing locations of human-induced regeneration projects." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474054/original/file-20220714-20-6llaip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clean Energy Regulator map showing locations of human-induced regeneration projects. Google satellite image, accessed 20th May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/erf_project_mapping">https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/erf_project_mapping</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Problem 1: trees existed before projects began</h2>
<p>First, <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/DocumentAssets/Documents/Human%20induced%20regeneration%20-%20A%20spatiotemporal%20study%20Peer%20Reviewed.pdf">data published by the regulator</a> shows proponents have been allowed to include a substantial number of mature trees in the areas for which they receive carbon credits. This has led to substantial over-crediting – in simple terms, the carbon abatement is not real.</p>
<p>So how has this occurred?</p>
<p>Under the method, proponents do not have to measure tree growth - they estimate it using a model. </p>
<p>The model assumes all trees in the forest begin regenerating at the same time when the project activities start. The modelled tree growth starts slowly, then accelerates to peak when the forest is young and vigorous. It then slows as the expanding trees compete with each other. </p>
<p>The model cannot be validly applied to estimate tree growth in areas where substantial numbers of pre-existing mature trees exist. But this is what’s <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/short_-_hir_measurement_july_2022_final.pdf">happening</a>. </p>
<p>As a consequence, proponents are being issued credits for growing trees that were already there when the projects started. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="fence and field with trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474024/original/file-20220714-9184-84qrxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proponents measure tree growth using a model.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Problem 2: rain, not the project activities, is making trees grow</h2>
<p>The method is based on the premise that changes in land management are necessary to regenerate the forests. But our <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/short_-_hir_additionality_july_2022_final.pdf">analysis</a> shows that, where trees are regenerating, it is due mainly to rainfall.</p>
<p>Almost all current projects seek to regenerate forests by reducing grazing pressure. For this to make sense, grazing would need to be responsible for dramatically reducing the prevalence of trees in the rangelands. It would also have to be possible to regenerate these “lost” forests by reducing grazing pressure. Neither of these are true. </p>
<p>For more than 30 years, there has been a heated debate in ecological and natural resource management circles about the causes of “woody thickening” (or increasing density of native trees and shrubs) in grazing areas. The two dominant, competing hypothesis are that woody thickening is:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>caused by grazing and an accompanying reduction in vegetation burning </p></li>
<li><p>a cyclical phenomena in which vegetation slowly accumulates over time, especially following runs of <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/11-1123.1">wet years</a>, until a drought causes woody plant cover to stabilise or decline. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>There’s no material evidence or support for the notion that grazing alone (in the absence of clearing) has significantly reduced tree cover over vast areas of the rangelands. </p>
<p>In fact, every year, between <a href="https://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/QueryAppendixTable.aspx">200,000 and 400,000 hectares</a> of land cleared for grazing is re-cleared. This demonstrates that grazing is rarely sufficient on its own to stop regrowth without mechanical or chemical interventions to kill trees. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-excuses-restoring-nature-is-not-a-silver-bullet-for-global-warming-we-must-cut-emissions-outright-186048">No more excuses: restoring nature is not a silver bullet for global warming, we must cut emissions outright</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="rain in puddle with trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474027/original/file-20220714-24-ab6s6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evidence strongly suggests woody vegetation in the rangelands fluctuates according to rain cycles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restoring integrity</h2>
<p>Regeneration of native forests in cleared areas is a valid and desirable way to reduce emissions and generate carbon credits. </p>
<p>But the human-induced regeneration method is deeply flawed. It has led to credits being issued for tree growth that is not real, or would have occurred anyway.</p>
<p>The review, to be led by former chief scientist Ian Chubb, is a chance to restore integrity to this method and ensure that credits are only issued for legitimate regeneration projects. </p>
<p>Because as climate change worsens, Australians need to know our most important climate policy is both value for money, and delivering real environmental gains. </p>
<p><strong>The Clean Energy Regulator, which operates the Emissions Reduction Fund, did not respond to The Conversation’s request for comment on the authors’ claims. However in a previous statement it said:</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Prof Macintosh and his colleagues have not engaged with the substance of the ERAC’s comprehensive response papers on human induced regeneration … The government has said it will undertake a review of the ERF and details will be announced shortly. We do not wish to pre-empt the scope of the review or its findings. We welcome the review and look forward to engaging substantively with the review process once it commences.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Macintosh is a Director of Paraway Pastoral Co. Ltd, a pastoral company that undertakes projects under the Emissions Reduction Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Butler receives funding from the federal Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment. He also works with the Queensland Department of Environment and Science as a science advisor for natural capital programs.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan C Evans receives funding from the Australian Research Council through a Discovery Early Career Research Award and has previously been funded by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, WWF Australia, and the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p>Our new analysis suggests the vast majority of carbon credits granted for regrowing native forests either has not occurred, or would have occurred anyway.Andrew Macintosh, Professor and Director of Research, ANU Law School, Australian National UniversityDon Butler, Professor, Australian National UniversityMegan C Evans, Senior Lecturer and ARC DECRA Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858942022-06-30T19:49:27Z2022-06-30T19:49:27ZWe blew the whistle on Australia’s central climate policy. Here’s what a new federal government probe must fix<p>Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen is today <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/chris-bowen-to-announce-review-of-carbon-credits-system-after-expert-labelled-it-a">expected</a> to announce a much anticipated review of Australia’s carbon credit scheme, known as the Emissions Reduction Fund.</p>
<p>In March, we <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/research/publications">exposed</a> serious integrity issues with the scheme, labelling it a fraud on taxpayers and the environment. We welcome the federal government’s review. Labor has promised a 43% cut in Australia’s emissions by 2030, and a high-integrity carbon credit market is vital to reaching this goal.</p>
<p>The fund was established by the Abbott government in 2014 and is now worth A$4.5 billion. It provides carbon credits to projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For the past decade, it has been the centrepiece of Australia’s climate policy. </p>
<p>In this and subsequent articles, we seek to simplify the issues for the Australian public, the new parliament and whoever is appointed to review the Emissions Reduction Fund.</p>
<h2>The background</h2>
<p>We are experts in environmental law, markets and policy. The lead author of this article, Andrew Macintosh, is the former chair of the Emissions Reduction Assurance Committee (ERAC), the government-appointed watchdog that oversees the Emissions Reduction Fund’s methods. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/research/publications">analysis</a> suggests up to 80% of credits issued under three of the fund’s most popular emissions reduction methods do not represent genuine emissions cuts that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.</p>
<p>Our decision to call the scheme a “fraud” was deliberate and considered. In our view, a process that systematically pays for a service that’s not actually provided is fraudulent. </p>
<p>The Clean Energy Regulator (which administers the fund) and the current ERAC reviewed our claims and, earlier this month, <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=1114">dismissed</a> them. We have <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/response-to-emissions-reduction-assurance-committee">expressed</a> serious concerns with that review process, which we believe was not transparent and showed a fundamental lack of understanding of the issues. </p>
<p>This week, Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/chris-bowen-to-announce-review-of-carbon-credits-system-after-expert-labelled-it-a">said</a> our concerns were “substantial and real” and he took them “very seriously”.</p>
<p>The Conversation contacted the Clean Energy Regulator regarding the authors’ claims. The regulator pointed to its “comprehensive response” to the issues raised and also rejected allegations of fraud. The full statement is included at the end of this article.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in suit talking at lectern" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471785/original/file-20220630-11-dvkid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said the authors’ concerns were ‘substantial and real’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca Di Marchi/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 3 biggest problems</h2>
<p>Under the fund, projects that reduce emissions are rewarded with carbon credits. These credits can be sold on the carbon market to entities that want to offset their emissions. Each credit is supposed to represent one tonne of carbon abatement.</p>
<p>Buyers include the federal government (using taxpayer funds) and private entities that are required to, or voluntarily choose to, offset their emissions.</p>
<p>Under the scheme, a range of methods lay out the rules for emissions abatement activities. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/serious-questions-over-whether-australia-s-emissions-cuts-are-real-20180710-p4zqln.html">Concerns</a> have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/22/one-in-five-carbon-credits-under-australias-main-climate-policy-are-junk-cuts-research-finds">raised</a> about these methods for years. </p>
<p>Our initial criticism focuses on the scheme’s most popular methods, which account for about 75% of carbon credits issued:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong><a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/csf/how-it-works/explore-project-types/Pages/human-induced-regeneration-projects.aspx">human-induced regeneration</a>:</strong> projects supposed to regenerate native forests through changes in land management practices, particularly reduced grazing by livestock and feral animals</p></li>
<li><p><strong><a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-the-land-sector/Vegetation-methods/Native-forest-protection-(avoided-deforestation)">avoided deforestation</a>:</strong> projects supposed to protect native forests in western New South Wales that would otherwise be cleared</p></li>
<li><p><strong><a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-industry/landfill-and-alternative-waste-treatment-methods/Capture-and-combustion-of-landfill-gas">landfill gas</a>:</strong> projects supposed to capture and destroy methane emitted from solid waste landfills using a flare or electricity generator.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Our <a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/research/publications">analysis</a> found credits have been issued for emissions reductions that were not real or additional, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>protecting forests that were never going to be cleared</li>
<li>growing trees that were already there</li>
<li>growing forests in places that will never sustain them permanently</li>
<li>large landfills operating electricity generators that would have operated anyway.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-emissions-reduction-fund-is-almost-empty-it-shouldnt-be-refilled-92283">Australia's Emissions Reduction Fund is almost empty. It shouldn't be refilled</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="farm scene with trees and crops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471787/original/file-20220630-11-d3b9m7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some credits were issued for growing trees that already existed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In forthcoming articles, we will detail the problems with these methods.</p>
<p>However, at a high level, the issues have arisen because the scheme has focused on maximising the number of carbon credits issued, to put downward pressure on carbon credit prices. This has resulted in attempts to use carbon offsets in inappropriate situations. </p>
<h2>A tricky policy lever</h2>
<p>Designing high integrity methods for calculating carbon credits is hard because it involves:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>trying to determine what would happen in the absence of the incentive provided by the carbon credit. For example, would a farmer have cleared a paddock of trees if they weren’t given carbon credits to retain it?</p></li>
<li><p>activities where it’s not always clear if carbon abatement was the result of human activity or natural variability. For instance, soil carbon levels can be increased by changing land management practices, but can also happen naturally due to rainfall</p></li>
<li><p>activities where it can be hard to measure the emissions outcome. For example, carbon sequestration in vegetation is often measured using models that can be inaccurate when applied at the project scale</p></li>
<li><p>dynamic carbon markets with fast-evolving technologies.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These complexities mean mistakes are inevitable; no functional carbon offset scheme can ever get it 100% right. A degree of error must be accepted.</p>
<p>But decisions regarding risk tolerance must consider the consequences of issuing low-integrity credits, including contributing to worsening climate change. </p>
<h2>The dangers of sham credits</h2>
<p>The safeguard mechanism places caps on the emissions of major polluters and was <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-the-safeguard-mechanism-is-not-a-sneaky-carbon-tax-182054">originally intended</a> to protect gains achieved through the Emissions Reduction Fund. It applies to about 200 large industrial polluters and requires them to buy carbon credits if their emissions exceed these caps. </p>
<p>When carbon credits used by polluters do not represent real and additional abatement, Australia’s emissions will be higher than they otherwise would be.</p>
<p>To avoid such risks, the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2020C00281">legislation</a> governing the Emissions Reduction Fund requires the methods to be “conservative” and supported by “clear and convincing evidence”. </p>
<p>The fund’s main methods do not meet these standards.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-the-safeguard-mechanism-is-not-a-sneaky-carbon-tax-182054">No, Mr Morrison – the safeguard mechanism is not a 'sneaky carbon tax'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphic showing one tonne of CO2 = 1 carbon credit" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471789/original/file-20220630-22-yytsyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Accurately calculating carbon credits is not as simple as it may appear.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An open and transparent process</h2>
<p>Carbon credit schemes are, by nature, complex and involve a high risk of error. To maintain integrity, systems to promote transparency are needed. </p>
<p>This includes requiring administrators to not just expect, but actively seek out errors and move quickly to correct them. </p>
<p>To this end, rules are needed to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>force the disclosure of information by the Clean Energy Regulator and ERAC</p></li>
<li><p>guarantee disinterested third parties the right to be involved in rule-making</p></li>
<li><p>give anybody the right to seek judicial review of decisions made by the Clean Energy Regulator and ERAC</p></li>
<li><p>require proponents to move off methods found to contain material errors.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The Emissions Reduction Fund has none of these features and needs urgent reform.</p>
<p>We hope the federal government review will be comprehensive and independent, with the power to compel people to give evidence. Because Australians deserve assurance that our national climate policy operates with the utmost integrity.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">US scheme used by Australian farmers reveals the dangers of trading soil carbon to tackle climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong><em>The Clean Energy Regulator provided the following statement in response to this article.</em></strong></p>
<p><em>The comments made regarding the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) repeat generalised claims that ‘fraud’ is occurring and are rejected. No substantial evidence for claims of fraud has ever been provided. These are serious allegations and the CER is dismayed at the statement that attributes these alleged outcomes to the work done by the CER. We understand that ERAC has the same view.</em></p>
<p><em>The claims about lack of additionality and over-crediting are also not new. Prof Macintosh and his colleagues have not engaged with the substance of the ERAC’s comprehensive response papers on human induced regeneration and landfill gas and the CER’s response to the claims on avoided deforestation.</em></p>
<p><em>The government has said it will undertake a review of the ERF and details will be announced shortly. We do not wish to pre-empt the scope of the review or its findings. We welcome the review and look forward to engaging substantively with the review process once it commences.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Macintosh receives funding from the federal Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment. He is also a Director of Paraway Pastoral Company Ltd, which has projects registered under the Emissions Reduction Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Butler receives funding from the federal Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment. He also works with the Queensland Department of Environment and Science as a science advisor for natural capital programs. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan C Evans receives funding from the Australian Research Council through a Discovery Early Career Research Award and has previously been funded by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, WWF Australia, and the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub. </span></em></p>Labor has promised a 43% cut in Australia’s emissions by 2030 and a high-integrity carbon credit market is vital to reaching this goal.Andrew Macintosh, Professor and Director of Research, ANU Law School, Australian National UniversityDon Butler, Professor, Australian National UniversityMegan C Evans, Senior Lecturer and ARC DECRA Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835062022-06-06T19:23:42Z2022-06-06T19:23:42ZLong-standing systems for sustainable farming could feed people and the planet — if industry is willing to step back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465818/original/file-20220527-25-519qnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5559%2C2792&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Burren, in western Ireland, is home to a traditional regenerative system of cattle management known as winterage. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Philip Loring)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global food systems are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.683100">at a breaking point</a>. Not only are they responsible for roughly <a href="https://drawdown.org/sectors/food-agriculture-land-use">a quarter</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions, they are also the top contributors to <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CA0146EN/">water pollution</a> and <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/food-systems-and-natural-resources">biodiversity collapse</a>. </p>
<p>On top of that, many aspects of our food systems are extremely vulnerable to disruptions from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0010-4">climate change</a> and other shocks, as we saw in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01532-y">the first months of the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Agroecology — an approach to farming long practised by <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/healing-grounds">Indigenous</a> and <a href="https://bookstore.acresusa.com/products/in-the-shadow-of-green-man">peasant communities</a> around the world — could transform our food systems for the better. And agribusinesses in the Global North are actively looking to agroecology to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2021/08/19/regenerative-agriculture-the-next-trend-in-food-retailing/?sh=170ce8b42153">rebrand and build new markets</a> under the banners of <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-technologies-that-will-help-make-the-food-system-carbon-neutral-182846">carbon farming and regenerative agriculture</a>. </p>
<p>But, a relentless focus on single outcomes, such as <a href="https://digitally.cognizant.com/moving-beyond-carbon-tunnel-vision-with-a-sustainability-data-strategy-codex7121">carbon</a>, coupled with industry’s instinct to define and standardize, threatens the transformative potential of agroecology.</p>
<h2>Win-win food systems</h2>
<p>In addition to their immense ecological costs, our food systems are also <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-global-food-systems-are-rife-with-injustice-heres-how-we-can-change-this-163596">tremendously unjust</a>. As many as <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment#moderate-food-insecurity">one in four people</a> experience moderate or severe food insecurity. The global expansion of industrial agriculture <a href="https://foodispower.org/our-food-choices/colonization-food-and-the-practice-of-eating/">continues to be</a> a vehicle for the violent spread of colonialism. </p>
<p>Agroecology offers the promise of a <a href="https://www.findingournichebook.com/">win-win</a>, where people nourish themselves while <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-researchers-plant-seeds-of-hope-for-health-and-climate-106217">restoring ecosystems and addressing the harms and legacies of colonialism</a>. </p>
<p>It is also at the centre of the <a href="https://foodsecurecanada.org/who-we-are/what-food-sovereignty">food sovereignty movement</a>, a global constellation of peasant- and Indgenous-led organizations fighting for the right to healthy and culturally appropriate food, produced in a way that is ecologically sound and socially acceptable. Food sovereignty is arguably the single <a href="https://fernwoodpublishing.ca/book/food-sovereignty">largest social movement</a> in the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a striped shirt hoists a bundle of corn ears with a rope." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A member of the Rural Women’s Farmers Association of Ghana hangs corn to preserve the seeds for sowing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Global Justice Now/flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La Via Campesina, the movement’s largest organization, represents over <a href="https://www.tni.org/en/transnational-institute">200 million farmers</a> in 70 countries. And the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, which operates <a href="https://afsafrica.org/our-members/">in 50 countries</a>, is the largest civil society movement on the continent. </p>
<p>Agroecology aligns with the food sovereignty movement because it is <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-61315-0_2">inherently emancipatory and democratic</a>. Where industrial food production emphasizes scalability and proprietary technology, consolidating and controlling power and wealth, agroecological practices require wealth and power to be held locally. Producers must have the freedom, flexibility and resources to <a href="https://ensia.com/voices/food-production-regenerative-agriculture-scale/">build healthy and just relationships</a> in communities and among the people and the land. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-people-not-enough-food-isnt-the-cause-of-hunger-and-food-insecurity-179168">'Too many people, not enough food' isn't the cause of hunger and food insecurity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For example, crop development through genetic modification <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-021-10265-3">is closed off to many</a> by intellectual property laws, patents and the high technological competencies and equipment involved. On-farm domestication and breeding are, by contrast, democratic technologies because they necessarily open and entirely reliant on local knowledge and sharing. </p>
<h2>Colonizing agroecology</h2>
<p>Corporate plans to invest in regenerative agriculture appear to be mere appropriations of agroecological practices, <a href="https://thecounter.org/regenerative-agriculture-racial-equity-climate-change-carbon-farming-environmental-issues/">hollowed out of their potential</a> for supporting broad societal transformation.</p>
<p>Agroecological systems are networks of relationships, not collections of practices. They cannot be easily rendered into a set of definitions, standards or technological principles. </p>
<p>For example, Indigenous agroforestry, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102257">a system of forest relations called <em>chagra</em></a>, played an essential role in establishing the rich biodiversity of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/its-now-clear-that-ancient-humans-helped-enrich-the-amazon/518439">much of the Amazon</a>. For the practitioners, <em>chagra</em> cannot be distinguished from the forest itself. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-raise-livestock-sustainably-a-win-win-solution-for-climate-change-deforestation-and-biodiversity-loss-176416">Can we raise livestock sustainably? A win-win solution for climate change, deforestation and biodiversity loss</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Reginaldo Haslet-Marroquin, CEO of the <a href="https://www.regenagalliance.org/">Regenerative Agriculture Alliance</a>, describes the push to define regenerative agriculture as an act of colonization. “It is fundamental for achieving a regenerative outcome to <em>not</em> define it,” <a href="https://www.spreaker.com/episode/49547148">he told me in a recent interview</a>. “To <em>not</em> reduce it to our myopic understanding of things … to the limitations of our colonizing minds. … Rather, we seek to understand what is, and what isn’t regenerative.”</p>
<p>To put it another way, regenerative is not a technological claim but an ethical one related to how we link knowledge and wisdom <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-021-10282-2">to organize ourselves and our practices</a> in relation to one another and to the land. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="59" data-image="" data-title="Reginaldo Haslett-Marroquin - Excerpt from the Second Transition Podcast, Episode 13." data-size="979192" data-source="(Philip Loring)" data-source-url="https://www.spreaker.com/episode/49547148" data-license="CC BY-NC-SA" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2514/00-audiograms-regi-teaser-2.mp3" type="audio/mpeg">
</audio>
<div class="audio-player-caption">
Reginaldo Haslett-Marroquin - Excerpt from the Second Transition Podcast, Episode 13.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.spreaker.com/episode/49547148">(Philip Loring)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a><span class="download"><span>956 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2514/00-audiograms-regi-teaser-2.mp3">(download)</a></span></span>
</div></p>
<h2>An ethical space</h2>
<p>Standards and definitions can help expose <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/07/what-is-greenwashing/">greenwashing</a>, but they can also have unintended consequences. My research on Alaska fisheries, for example, offered <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23360333">lessons</a> about how focusing only on the environmental dimensions of sustainability can perpetuate or even worsen social inequities. </p>
<p>The Marine Stewardship Council’s (MSC) certification, which is the largest framework for fishery sustainability, has also been critiqued along similar lines. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.10.003">MSC has improved ecological practices</a> in fisheries and created new ways for businesses to profit from fisheries, but it has also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2011.00345.x">marginalized some communities</a> and created <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104526">barriers to entry</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12683">boundaries to innovation</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of an island coastline with a rocky wall creating an intertidal pool area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A large clam garden terrace in the Gulf Islands, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mary Morris, Simon Fraser University/flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Agroecological systems are <a href="https://theconversation.com/regenerative-agriculture-can-make-farmers-stewards-of-the-land-again-110570">as diverse</a> as the people practising them and the places where they are practised. <a href="https://clamgarden.com/">Indigenous clam gardens</a> in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska are a world away from the system of ranching known as <a href="https://www.burrenwinterage.com/">cattle winterage</a> in the Burren of Ireland. But they share an ethical landscape defined by a commitment to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2012.06.008">social and ecological justice</a>. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that regenerative agriculture and other agroecological practices can help address climate change, including by <a href="https://capi-icpa.ca/explore/resources/translating-science-to-policy-approaches-to-increase-soil-carbon-sequestration-in-canadas-croplands/">sequestering carbon in the soil</a>. But, at a time when innovation and diffusion of new ideas are urgently needed, fostering an ethical agroecological space where people can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.05.016">experiment</a> and <a href="https://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/publications/social-learning-practice-review-lessons-impacts-and-tools-climate">share</a> is a more promising theory of change than creating mechanisms to enforce uniformity and exclusion. </p>
<p>Agribusiness has an opportunity to be part of a global transition to more ecologically sound and socially just food systems. That will require the sector to set aside narrow understandings of the problem and abandon the imperative to colonize the spaces of innovation long-held by Indigenous Peoples and other racialized people around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip A Loring receives funding from the Arrell Food Institute, from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, and from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada</span></em></p>Industry seeks to capitalize on regenerative agriculture, but standards that focus only on carbon or other select environmental metrics will undermine its transformative potentialPhilip A Loring, Associate Professor and Arrell Chair in Food, Policy, and Society, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1828462022-05-18T19:46:16Z2022-05-18T19:46:16Z5 technologies that will help make the food system carbon neutral<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463993/original/file-20220518-13-m3o8vb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C45%2C3765%2C2109&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The key to unlocking the benefits of new agricultural technologies is to develop food systems where the waste products from one step become valuable inputs in another.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Globally, about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2012.11708">one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions</a> come from agriculture and food systems. The carbon footprint of food systems includes all the emissions from its growing, processing, transportation and waste. </p>
<p>Agriculture is also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/ng-interactive/2022/apr/14/climate-crisis-food-systems-not-ready-biodiversity">vulnerable to the effects of climate change</a> and, as the conflict in <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/war-ukraine-amplifying-already-prevailing-food-crisis-west-africa-and-sahel-region">Ukraine</a> demonstrates, food systems can be exposed to geopolitics. </p>
<p>Several technologies are already available that can help decarbonize the complex systems that link producers and consumers. These technologies can also make our food systems much more resilient to global threats. Here are five that we think show tremendous potential.</p>
<h2>1. Carbon farms and regenerative agriculture</h2>
<p>Today, most of the greenhouse gas emissions linked with our food come from producing the food, and are emitted when the soils are plowed. This is important as <a href="https://theconversation.com/farming-without-disturbing-soil-could-cut-agricultures-climate-impact-by-30-new-research-157153">undisturbed soils store carbon</a>. </p>
<p>But with some relatively small changes to management, soils can once again become carbon sinks. For instance, planting legumes and <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/forage-crops">forage crops</a> every few years, rather than just growing commodities like wheat or corn, or seeding a cover crop in the fall, when fields would otherwise be bare, allow organic matter to build up and help the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.577723">soil to absorb carbon</a>. Not only does this help slow climate change, it also protects soils from erosion. </p>
<p>The idea that farmers can simply use more crop types may not seem technologically sophisticated, but it does work. And a new generation of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.022">smart farming tools</a>, which includes farming equipment that uses big data and artificial intelligence, will soon help farmers adopt these practices that produce food and trap carbon. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/food-is-poised-to-get-a-lot-more-expensive-but-it-doesnt-have-to-162206">Food is poised to get a lot more expensive, but it doesn't have to</a>
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<p>These smart farming tools are part of a broader digital agricultural revolution, also known of as precision farming, that will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-053654">allow farmers to reduce their environmental impact</a> and track how much greenhouse gas their fields are capturing, creating a carbon ledger that documents their efforts. </p>
<h2>2. Smart fertilizers</h2>
<p>Traditionally, it takes a lot of <a href="https://www.fertilizer.org/images/Library_Downloads/2014_ifa_ff_ammonia_emissions_july.pdf">fossil fuels to turn nitrogen from the air into fertilizer</a>. Additionally, it is <a href="https://p2irc.usask.ca/articles/2021/challenges-and-potential-solutions-to-improve-fertilizer-use---may-2021-final.pdf">challenging for farmers to put exactly the right amount of fertilizer in the right place</a>, at the right time, for crops to use it efficiently. </p>
<p>Fertilizers are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1081/CSS-100104098">often overapplied</a>, and not used by crops, ending up as pollution, either as as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-019-0133-9">greenhouse gases</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es00009a001">water contaminants</a>. But a new generation of fertilizers aims to fix these problems. </p>
<p>Smart bio-fertilizers, use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/biofertilizer">micro-organisms that are bred or engineered to live in harmony with crops</a> and capture nutrients from the environment, providing them to the crops without waste. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tractor drives down rows of crops spraying fertilizer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463998/original/file-20220518-11-allm8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Smart bio-fertilizers that use micro-organisms to capture the nutrients from the environment can avoid the waste and pollution problems associated with conventional fertilizers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Precision fermentation</h2>
<p>Humans have used micro-organisms to turn sugars and starches into fermented products such as beer, wine and bread since the dawn of history. But before long, precision fermentation will be used to produce a great many more products. </p>
<p>For decades this technology has been used to create most of the world’s insulin and the enzyme rennet used in cheese making. The United States recently allowed <a href="https://cen.acs.org/food/food-ingredients/start-ups-make-us-love/98/i38">animal-free fermented dairy protein</a> — made by inserting milk-producing genes into microbes — to be used in <a href="https://braverobot.co/">ice cream</a>, which is now available for sale. It is only a matter of time before products from <a href="https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/02/03/Disrupting-dairy-with-precision-fermentation-By-2035-industrial-cattle-farming-will-be-obsolete">precision fermentation become common place in supermarkets everywhere</a>.</p>
<p>In the future, if fermentation micro-organisms are fed waste products (such as leftover “spent grains” from brewing or waste starch from plant-based proteins), farmers could create low-impact, high-value products out of organic material that would otherwise be wasted and decompose into greenhouse gasses. </p>
<h2>4. Vertical farming</h2>
<p>While nothing beats fresh fruit and vegetables, picked ripe and eaten immediately, the sad reality is that most of the fresh produce eaten in Canada, northern United States and northern Europe comes from industrial farms in the southwestern United States or the southern hemisphere. The <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26334145">carbon footprint of this long-distance cold chain</a> is large, and the quality of the produce is not always the best. </p>
<p>A new generation of vertical farms aims to change this by using energy-efficient LED lights to produce year-round crops close to home. These <a href="https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2018/08/14/vertical-farming-future">controlled-environment agricultural facilities</a> use less water and labour than conventional farms, and produce large quantities of fresh fruits and vegetables on small plots of land. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Vertical tubes with green lettuce leaves sprouting from them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464000/original/file-20220518-17-y8gcai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rows of romaine lettuce grow at a vertical farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Brandon Wade/AP Images for Eden Green)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>What’s more, these facilities are springing up all over <a href="https://www.goodleaffarms.com">North America</a> and Europe, but especially in Singapore and <a href="https://npoplantfactory.org/en/">Japan</a>. While there is still considerable debate as to whether the current generation of vertical farms are <a href="https://www.agritecture.com/blog/2022/5/9/a-holistic-look-at-vertical-farmings-carbon-footprint-and-land-use">better in terms of energy use</a>, they are increasingly poised to use renewable energy to ensure a carbon-neutral fresh produce supply year-round, even in <a href="https://www.globalaginvesting.com/elevate-farms-secures-10m-bring-vertical-farming-remote-northern-canada/">Canada’s North</a>.</p>
<h2>5. Biogas</h2>
<p>The manure from livestock facilities is challenging to manage as it can become a source of water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. However, if livestock manure is placed in an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2011.04.075">anaerobic digester</a>, it’s possible to capture the naturally occurring methane as a <a href="http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/engineer/biogas/">green natural gas</a>. </p>
<p>Properly planned, biogas digesters can also turn municipal organic waste into renewable energy, thus giving agriculture the opportunity to contribute to a sustainable energy portfolio. This is already happening on farms in Ontario, where a new generation of biogas digesters are helping <a href="https://farmtario.com/news/ontario-farmers-seeing-revenue-opportunity-in-biogas-digesters/">boost farm incomes and displace fossil fuels</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-food-waste-can-generate-clean-energy-176352">Here's how food waste can generate clean energy</a>
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<h2>Driving systems change</h2>
<p>These technologies become far more exciting when they’re linked. For example, biogas collectors attached to livestock farms could be used to create the energy required to run fermentation facilities that produce animal-free dairy products. </p>
<p>Similarly, if plant-based proteins, such as those that come from leguminous crops like peas, are produced on farms using regenerative agricultural techniques and processed locally, the leftover starches can be used for precision fermentation. While we are not aware of this process being done at scale, it potential sustainability benefit is huge.</p>
<p>The key to unlocking these benefits is to develop agri-food businesses that are <a href="https://archive.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/explore/food-cities-the-circular-economy">circular food systems</a>, so that the waste products from one step become valuable inputs in another. A critical addition to circular food systems will be carbon tracking from field to table, where the benefits are rewarded. </p>
<p>Technologies to achieve a carbon-neutral, <a href="https://guelph.ca/wp-content/uploads/SmartCities_Booklet.pdf">circular food economy</a> are rapidly approaching maturity. It will likely only be a few years before the five <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2021.11.013">technologies described above become mainstream</a>. </p>
<p>Today, the world faces one of the biggest challenges of the century: how to nutritiously feed the world’s growing population, address climate change and not destroy the ecosystems on which we all depend for life. But we are on the brink of having the tools to feed the future and protect the planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rene Van Acker receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Government of Ontario through the Ontario Agri-Food Alliance. He is affiliated with The Deans Council, Agriculture, Food and Veterinary Medicine. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Fraser consults with a range of vertical farming companies and initiatives including the Weston Family Foundation's Home Grown Innovation Challenge and Cubic Farms. He receives funding from a range of governmental and philanthropic sources including the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Arrell Family Foundation. He is affiliated with the Canadian Food Policy Advisory Council, Protein Industries Canada, Genome Quebec, and the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lenore Newman receives funding from SSHRC and Future Skills Centre Canada. She is chair of the Science Advisory Board for Cubic Farms.</span></em></p>The world is facing one of the century’s biggest challenges: How to nutritiously feed the growing population, address climate change and not destroy the ecosystems on which we all depend for life.Rene Van Acker, Professor and Dean of The Ontario Agricultural College, University of GuelphEvan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute and Professor in the Dept. of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of GuelphLenore Newman, Canada Research Chair, Food Security and the Environment, University of The Fraser ValleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1796542022-04-04T15:10:05Z2022-04-04T15:10:05ZIPCC says the tools to stop catastrophic climate change are in our hands. Here’s how to use them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455811/original/file-20220401-30316-ktc68a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C5937%2C3368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humanity still has time to arrest catastrophic global warming – and has the tools to do so quickly and cheaply, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">latest IPCC assessment report</a>, the world’s definitive stocktake of action to minimise climate change, shows a viable path to halving global emissions by 2030. </p>
<p>This outlook is much more favourable than in earlier assessments, made possible by tremendous reductions in the cost of clean energy technologies. But broad policy action is needed to make steep emissions reductions happen. </p>
<p>We each contributed expertise to the report. In this article, we highlight how the world can best reduce emissions this decade and discuss the potential implications for Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="letters on blocks reading climate change/chance" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455814/original/file-20220401-19-uhtskc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Humanity still has time to arrest catastrophic global warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>All-in, right now</h2>
<ul>
<li><em><strong>Frank Jotzo</strong>, lead author on policies and institutions</em></li>
</ul>
<p>The IPCC identifies clean electricity and agriculture/forestry/land use as the sectors where the greatest emissions reductions can be achieved, followed by industry and transport. </p>
<p>Further low-emissions opportunities exist in other areas of production, buildings and the urban sector, as well as shifts in consumer demand. Overall, half the options to cut emissions by 50% cost less than US$20 a tonne. </p>
<p>While the IPCC does not provide a country-level assessment, it is clear Australia has all these opportunities. </p>
<p>The transition to zero-emissions electricity is well underway. Decarbonising industry and transport is a next step. Emerging technologies such as green steel and hydrogen offer Australia new, clean export industries. Fossil fuel use in turn is destined to fall, with coal dropping off particularly quickly.</p>
<p>And Australia’s large land mass provides massive opportunities to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere through plants – and in future, perhaps also through chemical methods.</p>
<p>The IPCC says comprehensive policy packages are needed to make deep emissions cuts happen. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-finds-the-world-has-its-best-chance-yet-to-slash-emissions-if-it-seizes-the-opportunity-179653">IPCC finds the world has its best chance yet to slash emissions – if it seizes the opportunity</a>
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<p>It finds carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes have been effective, alongside targeted regulation and other instruments – such as support for research and development, uptake of advanced technologies and removing fossil fuel subsidies.</p>
<p>The report also emphasises the need for continued technological innovation, and to greatly scale up finance for climate action.</p>
<p>It puts weight on the importance of equity, sustainable development and comprehensive engagement across society to avert unmanageable climate change. </p>
<p>That requires climate action to take centre stage in society, involving all manner of groups. Independent institutions such as Australia’s Climate Change Authority have a strong role to play, and business should be actively involved. </p>
<p>So what’s the IPCC’s overriding message? The world’s governments must go all-in on addressing climate change. The opportunities are there and the toolkit is ready. </p>
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<img alt="industrial scene at sunset" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455807/original/file-20220401-19520-uv463h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Comprehensive policy is needed to produce deep emissions cuts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. David Ake/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Food for thought</h2>
<ul>
<li><em><strong>Annette Cowie</strong>, lead author on cross-sectoral perspectives</em></li>
</ul>
<p>To have our best shot at holding warming to 1.5°C, the world must hit net-zero emissions by mid-century. </p>
<p>Agriculture is a big contributor to global emissions. But the IPCC confirms the land also has a central role in getting to net-zero through measures that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941">remove</a> CO₂ from the atmosphere and store it, such as tree planting, soil carbon management and the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcbb.12885">use of biochar</a>. </p>
<p>Benefits returned to farmers include improved soil fertility and income from carbon trading.</p>
<p>The way we produce and distribute food accounts for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2021/02/08_Chapter-5_3.pdf">more than one-third</a> of global emissions.</p>
<p>The report says one of the biggest individual contributions we can make to reducing emissions is adopting a sustainable, healthy diet and reducing food waste. Such a diet is rich in plant-based food, with moderate intake of meat and dairy. </p>
<p>We can also tackle direct emissions from food production. Manure can be made into <a href="https://www.nswfarmers.org.au/NSWFA/Posts/The_Farmer/Environment/The_power_of_pig_poo.aspx">biogas</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">feed additives</a> offer promising ways to reduce <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/dpi/climate/Carbon-and-emissions/emissions-reduction-pathways/livestock-industries/methane_emissions">livestock methane</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941">The Morrison government wants to suck CO₂ out of the atmosphere. Here are 7 ways to do it</a>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="hand holding biochar" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455398/original/file-20220331-11-b8vw9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biochar offers a way to store carbon and improve the soil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving the dial on transport</h2>
<ul>
<li><p><em><strong>Peter Newman</strong>, coordinating lead author on transport</em></p></li>
<li><p><em><strong>Jake Whitehead</strong>, lead author on transport</em></p></li>
</ul>
<p>A set of technological solutions now exist to reduce emissions across energy, buildings, cities, transport and to a large extent, industry. </p>
<p>They include solar and wind-based power – now the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/">cheapest</a> form of electricity. They also include <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323">batteries</a> and storage, electrified transport and “smart” technology that integrates these measures into zero-emissions solutions. </p>
<p>The IPCC report shows in the past decade, unit costs for solar have fallen by 85%, wind by 55% and batteries by 85%. Never before has the world had such an opportunity to decarbonise. </p>
<p>In recent decades, transport has been the laggard in emissions reduction. But, as the IPCC finds, technologies now exist to change the trajectory. Solar-powered electrification is rolling out for cars, bikes, scooters, buses and trucks. </p>
<p>Continuing advances in battery and charging technologies could enable the electrification of long-haul trucks, including <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg">electrified highways</a>.</p>
<p>The IPCC assessed 60 actions individuals can take to reduce emissions. The largest contributions come from walking and cycling, using electrified transport, reducing air travel, as well as shifting towards plant-based diets.</p>
<p>This highlights how our individual choices matter.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-buying-an-electric-vehicle-for-your-next-car-heres-the-market-outlook-and-what-to-consider-179293">Thinking of buying an electric vehicle for your next car? Here's the market outlook and what to consider</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Technology alone is not enough to reduce transport emissions. Cities must become more oriented toward public transport, walking and cycling. Effective new ways of doing this include <a href="https://medium.com/nextmobility/on-demand-shuttles-a-new-way-of-sharing-79dc08d912d0">on-demand shuttles</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMmpK3F_4k8">trackless trams</a> and high speed rail. </p>
<p>Governments should provide incentives to supply and use electric scooters, bikes, cars, trucks and buses. This would ensure individuals and businesses who want to reduce their emissions have ways to do so.</p>
<p>The IPCC says cheap <a href="https://energy-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ETC-Global-Hydrogen-Report.pdf">green hydrogen</a> will be important to decarbonise aviation, shipping and parts of industry and agriculture. Much work is required in the next decade to bring this solution to fruition.</p>
<p>While government funding is vital to decarbonise transport, this transition also presents significant economic opportunities. </p>
<p>Australia could support transport decarbonisation globally through the mining of critical minerals, as well as the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Rebuilding-Vehicle-Manufacturing-in-Australia-WEB.pdf">manufacturing</a>, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/second-life-ev-batteries-the-newest-value-pool-in-energy-storage">reuse</a> and <a href="https://fbicrc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CSIRO-Report-Australian-landscape-for-lithium-ion-battery-recycling-and-reuse-in-2020.pdf">recycling</a> of electric vehicles. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people cycling and walking" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455804/original/file-20220401-25-45qmu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cities must pivot toward public transport, walking and cycling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Asanka Brendon Ratnayake/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s time to act</h2>
<p>Huge untapped potential exists to reduce global emissions quickly. </p>
<p>But the window of opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to safe levels is closing at an alarming rate. As the IPCC shows, fundamental change to both production and demand is required.</p>
<p>Clearly, business-as-usual is no longer tenable. The IPCC makes one thing patently evident: the time for action is well and truly upon us. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Arunima Malik, Glen Peters, Jacqueline Peel, Thomas Wiedmann and Xuemei Bai contributed to this article. See part one of the article <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-tools-to-stop-catastrophic-climate-change-are-in-our-hands-heres-how-to-use-them-179654">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179654/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo is a professor at ANU Crawford School of Public Policy and the ANU Institute for Climate Energy & Disaster Solutions. He is a lead author and contributor to the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, and a lead author of the 5th Assessment Report. He has led research projects funded by a variety of funders; none present a conflict of interest on this topic. The Australian government provided funding to support IPCC related activities, while the author's (and all authors') activities for the IPCC are not remunerated. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annette Cowie is a Senior Principal Research Scientist in the climate branch at the NSW Department of Primary Industries, in a addition to her UNE role. She receives research funding from NSW and Commonwealth government programs and rural research and development corporations. She is a member of Soil Science Australia and an adviser to the Australia New Zealand Biochar Industry Group and the Land Degradation Neutrality Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jake Whitehead is on unpaid leave from his role as a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland. He is a Lead Author of the AR6 Transport Chapter for The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a Member of the International Electric Vehicle Policy Council, and Director of Transmobility Consulting. He has previously received government funding for several sustainable transport projects, including research on both hydrogen and electric vehicles. He is also holds a part-time position as the Head of Policy at the Electric Vehicle Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman AO is Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University and has been involved in IPCC reports for the past ten years. The Federal Government has provided travel funds for meetings though the past few years have all been on-line. Like all authors in IPCC this is a voluntary activity. </span></em></p>The outlook for potential emissions reduction is far better than in earlier assessments, thanks to the plunging costs of clean energy technologies.Frank Jotzo, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy and Head of Energy, Institute for Climate Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityAnnette Cowie, Adjunct Professor, University of New EnglandJake Whitehead, E-Mobility Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandPeter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1648602021-07-28T19:56:09Z2021-07-28T19:56:09ZFarms are adapting well to climate change, but there’s work ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413517/original/file-20210728-23-1skq3tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=757%2C101%2C3672%2C2156&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PETER LORIMER/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian farmers have proven their resilience, rebounding from drought and withstanding a global pandemic to produce <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/news/media-releases/2021/agricultures-record-year-challenges-remain">record-breaking output</a> in 2020-21. </p>
<p>But while the pain of drought is fading from view for some, the challenge of a changing climate continues to loom large.</p>
<p>Farmers have endured a poor run of conditions over the last 20 years, including a reduction in average rainfall (particularly in southern Australia during the winter cropping season) and general increases in temperature. </p>
<p>While these trends <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">relate to climate change</a>, uncertainty remains over how they will develop, particularly over how much rain or drought farmers will face.</p>
<p>Research <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/products/insights/climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation">published today</a> by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) examines the effects of past and potential future changes in climate, and sets out how productivity gains to date have been helping farmers adapt to the drier and hotter conditions.</p>
<h2>Conditions have been tough</h2>
<p>The research examines the effect on farms of climate conditions over the past 20 years, compared to the preceding 50 years. </p>
<p>Holding other factors constant (including commodity prices and technology) ABARES estimates the post-2000 shift in conditions reduced farm profits by an average of 23%, or around A$29,000 per farm per year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-since-2000-has-cut-farm-profits-22-128860">Climate change since 2000 has cut farm profits 22%</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As with <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-changes-in-climate-since-2000-have-cut-australian-farm-profits-22-128860">past research</a>, these effects have been strongest among cropping farmers in south-eastern and southern-western Australia, with impacts of over 50% observed in some of the most severely affected areas.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Effect of 2001 to 2020 climate conditions on average farm profit</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413475/original/file-20210728-19-1grji7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Simulated broadacre farm profit with current (2015–16 to 2018–19) farms and commodity prices and recent (2000–01 to 2019–20) climate conditions. Interpolated farm-level percentage changes relative to 1949–50 to 1999–2000 climate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABARES farmpredict model (Hughes, Lu et al. 2021)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>Farmers have been adapting</h2>
<p>While these changes in conditions have been dramatic, farmers’ adaptation has been equally impressive. </p>
<p>After controlling for climate, farm productivity (the output from a given amount of land and other inputs) has climbed around 28% since 1989, with a much larger 68% gain in the cropping sector.</p>
<p>These gains have offset the adverse climate conditions and along with increases in commodity prices have allowed farmers to maintain and even increase average production and profit levels over the last decade.</p>
<p>While productivity growth in agriculture is nothing new, the recent gains have been especially focused on adapting to drier and hotter conditions. </p>
<p>Within the cropping sector, for example, a range of new technologies and practices have emerged to better utilise soil moisture to cope with lower rainfall.</p>
<p>As a result, Australian farmers have produced remarkable harvests making use of limited rain, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-01-08/wa-farmers-reap-huge-%246-billion-crop-as-harvest-surprises/13039572">particularly in Western Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Adaptation has also involved movement of traditional Australian cropping zones, increasing cropping in <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-farmers-are-adapting-to-climate-change-76939">higher rainfall coastal areas</a>, and reducing cropping in <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/products/insights/climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation">marginal in-land areas</a>.</p>
<h2>Climate change could make conditions tougher</h2>
<p>While climate models generally project a hotter and drier future, a wide range of outcomes are possible, particularly for rainfall. </p>
<p>Climate projections suggest that nationally farmers could experience reductions in average winter season rainfall of 3% to 30% by 2050 (compared to 1950-2000).</p>
<p>The study simulates the effect of future climate change scenarios with current farm technology and no further productivity gains. </p>
<p>As such, these scenarios are not a prediction, but an indication of which regions and sectors might be under the greatest pressure to adapt.</p>
<p>For example, under most scenarios cropping farmers in Western Australia will face more pressure than those in eastern Australia. </p>
<p>Livestock farms will also face more pressure under high emissions scenarios as they are especially impacted by higher temperatures. </p>
<p>Generally, inland low-rainfall farming areas are expected to face greater challenges than regions closer to the coast.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Simulated change in farm profits relative to historical (1950 to 2000) climate</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=845&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=845&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413512/original/file-20210728-23-nqga6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=845&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Change in simulated average farm profit for broadacre farms, assuming current commodity prices (2015–16 to 2018–19), and current farm technology (no adaptation), relative to historical climate conditions (1949–50 to 1999–2000). Bars show minimum, maximum and average across the GCMs for each scenario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABARES farmpredict model (Hughes, Lu et al. 2021)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>There is more work ahead</h2>
<p>Recent experience shows that productivity growth can help offset the impact of a changing climate. </p>
<p>However, there remains uncertainty over how far technology can push farm efficiency beyond current levels. </p>
<p>Further, even if technology can offset climate impacts, other exporting nations could still become more competitive relative to Australia, if they are less affected by climate change or can adapt faster.</p>
<p>Here, investment in research and development remains crucial, including efforts to improve the productivity and reduce the carbon footprint of existing crop and livestock systems, along with research into more transformational responses to help diversify farm incomes.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1219&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1219&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413485/original/file-20210728-13-23k104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1219&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmland can be repurposed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This could include for example, carbon and biodiversity farming, plantation forestry and the use of land to produce renewable energy.</p>
<p>Carbon and biodiversity farming schemes are the subject of ongoing research and <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/natural-resources/landcare/sustaining-future-australian-farming">policy trials</a>, and already we have seen farmers generate <a href="https://landcareaustralia.org.au/project/erf-brings-benefits-farmers/">significant revenue</a> from carbon farming.</p>
<p>Uncertainty over the future climate, especially rainfall, remains a key constraint on adaptation. Efforts to refine and better communicate climate information through initiatives such as <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/drought/future-drought-fund/climate-services">Climate Services for Agriculture</a> could help farmers and governments make more informed decisions.</p>
<p>While the future is still highly uncertain, the challenge of adapting to climate change is here and now. </p>
<p>Significant resources have been committed in this area, including the Australian government’s <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/drought/future-drought-fund/climate-services">Future Drought Fund</a>. </p>
<p>We need to make the most of these investments to prepare for whatever the future holds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neal Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New ABARES research examines the climate change challenge facing Australian farmersNeal Hughes, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1290412020-01-30T16:03:02Z2020-01-30T16:03:02ZFood that feeds the world and heals it too – Imagine newsletter #6<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309491/original/file-20200110-97130-1m0qlmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1179%2C1035%2C4106%2C2953&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The future of farming is ours to decide.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hand-holding-globe-withaustralia-south-east-1196597263?src=f-nTGi4bKPTWtREhil7WUA-1-63">Raggedstone/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to experts, today’s global agriculture system <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Innovation_with_a_Purpose_VF-reduced.pdf">faces a crisis</a>. Intensive farming with heavy ploughing machinery is causing soil to be lost <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-land-report-shows-the-problem-with-farming-based-around-oil-not-soil-121643">up to 100 times faster than it is formed</a> – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/soil-is-our-best-ally-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-but-were-fast-running-out-of-it-128166">valuable stored carbon with it too</a>. The soil that remains is becoming depleted of nutrients, thanks to repeated cultivation of the same staple crops without respite.</p>
<p>To delay the consequences of this “cereal abuse” and soup up crop yields, farmers artificially fertilise soils with synthetic nitrogen, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-land-report-shows-the-problem-with-farming-based-around-oil-not-soil-121643">typically made using natural gas or coal</a>. This, combined with methane released by cattle and the loss of stored carbon from <a href="https://globalforestatlas.yale.edu/land-use/industrial-agriculture">deforestation for agriculture</a>, means that <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608">a quarter of all planet-heating gases</a> come from how we feed the world. These gases are bringing weather patterns so extreme that some experts believe multiple crop failures and food system collapse could be a possibility <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-climate-is-like-reckless-banking-before-the-crash-its-time-to-talk-about-near-term-collapse-128374">in as little as a decade</a>.</p>
<p>Agriculture is <a href="https://theconversation.com/single-crop-farming-is-leaving-wildlife-with-no-room-to-turn-38991">eroding wildlife too</a>. Run-off of fertilisers is causing dead zones in <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/07/gulf-of-mexico-dead-zone-is-3-times-larger-than-long-term-targets/">downstream rivers</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ocean-dead-zones-are-spreading-and-that-spells-disaster-for-fish-39668">oceans</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/bees-how-important-are-they-and-what-would-happen-if-they-went-extinct-121272">Pesticides and the conversion of wild habitats to farmland</a> are harming the insects that <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/CA3129EN/CA3129EN.pdf">pollinate crops</a>, and the plants they rely on to thrive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311672/original/file-20200123-162210-1xqd6yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modern farming sheds valuable topsoil and fertilisers into aquatic ecosystems, where they smother wildlife.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nutrient_pollution#/media/File:Runoff_of_soil_&_fertilizer.jpg">Lynn Betts/U.S. Department of Agriculture</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To top it all off, by the middle of the century there are expected to be a <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html">quarter more mouths on the planet to feed</a>. By that point, the global food system is predicted to cause the planet to <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-food-system-is-at-risk-of-crossing-environmental-limits-heres-how-to-ease-the-pressure-104715">exceed key environmental limits</a> that define a safe operating space for humanity.</p>
<p>The future of food, then, may sound rather bleak. But it doesn’t have to be this way. With drastic changes, the food system could help solve environmental challenges and support human wellbeing.</p>
<p>The question is how to bring about this future – and there are some radically different suggestions out there. In this sixth issue of Imagine, academic experts explore the competing visions on offer, and assess what needs to be done to create a food system that feeds the world and heals it too.</p>
<p>The “green revolution” that produced a <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-earth-feed-11-billion-people-four-reasons-to-fear-a-malthusian-future-43347">fourfold increase in global food production</a> since the middle of the 20th century relied on pesticides, fertilisers, machinery, and monocultures. What should the next agricultural revolution hold?</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>What is Imagine?</strong></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1114168">Imagine</a> is a newsletter from The Conversation that presents a vision of a world acting on climate change. Drawing on the collective wisdom of academics in fields from anthropology and zoology to technology and psychology, it investigates the many ways life on Earth could be made fairer and more fulfilling by taking radical action on climate change.</em></p>
<p><em>You are currently reading the web version of the newsletter. Here’s <a href="http://theconversation.createsend.com/t/ViewEmail/r/3B198A7EB72026A72540EF23F30FEDED/C67FD2F38AC4859C">the more elegant email-optimised version</a> subscribers receive. To get Imagine delivered straight to your inbox, <a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116320">subscribe now</a>.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>We can hack photosynthesis</h2>
<p>According to some, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-could-lead-to-a-dark-future-125897">a technological revolution</a> that could solve the food crisis is already underway. In this <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-the-future-of-farming-what-you-need-to-know-106805">imagined future</a>, next generation biotechnologies will re-engineer plants and animals. Global food systems will rely on smart robots, blockchain technology and the Internet of Things to manufacture synthetic foods for personalised nutrition. Nanotechnology will <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-agricultural-revolution-how-2050s-farms-can-feed-the-planet-and-heal-it-too-128853">maximise the efficiency of fertilisers and pesticides</a>, and improve gene-editing to create crops resistant to the impacts of extreme weather.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284583/original/file-20190717-147295-16meq90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indoor plants need plenty of artificial light.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ventilator-special-led-lights-belts-above-1428413504?studio=1">josefkubes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One techno-fix in particular lights up the <a href="https://theconversation.com/micro-naps-for-plants-flicking-the-lights-on-and-off-can-save-energy-without-hurting-indoor-agriculture-harvests-120051">night sky with a bright pink glow</a>: vertical farms. They use high-tech lighting and carefully control the indoor climate to bypass the constraints of Earth’s natural cycles to grow crops 24 hours a day, all year round.</p>
<p>Because they recycle water that evaporates from the plants, these closed systems use <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170405-how-vertical-farming-reinvents-agriculture">as little as one-twentieth the water</a> of traditional farms. Most <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa-needs-its-own-version-of-the-vertical-farm-to-feed-growing-cities-74929">don’t need soil either</a>, because they dispense nutrients via mist or water.</p>
<p>They’re at much lower risk of crop loss from contamination, pests, and storms, too. And because they can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/apocalypse-cow-documentarys-vision-for-the-future-of-food-could-leave-farming-in-the-past-129631">placed on unproductive and urban land</a>, they can decrease food miles and provide local produce to city dwellers.</p>
<p>According to expert in food security Asaf Tzachor, they can even help save rainforests. He went to investigate a cutting-edge indoor farm project in Iceland’s Hellisheidi geothermal park. It closely regulates temperature, lighting, nutrient concentrations, and harvest timing to grow not crops, but plant microorganisms.</p>
<p>Using this technique, the project’s photo-bioreactors can produce microalgae with similar nutritional content to soybeans at less than 0.6% of the land and water use.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270529/original/file-20190423-175539-1rwo9ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Quite a difference.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Asaf Tzachor/Author provided</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is important because soy cultivation for animal feed is a <a href="https://globalforestatlas.yale.edu/amazon/land-use/soy">leading cause of deforestation</a> in the Amazon basin. And thanks to projected rapid growth in both <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf">world population</a> and in the meat-eating global <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf">middle class</a>, demand for soybean is <a href="https://www.aciar.gov.au/node/12101">set to grow 80%</a> by 2050 – more than any other staple crop.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hacking-photosynthesis-could-fight-deforestation-and-famine-114929">How hacking photosynthesis could fight deforestation and famine</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is technology the saviour, really?</h2>
<p>The trouble is that these technologies often require vast amounts of energy and resources to produce and maintain. As sustainable design researcher at Queen’s University Belfast Andrew Jenkins <a href="https://theconversation.com/food-security-vertical-farming-sounds-fantastic-until-you-consider-its-energy-use-102657">argues</a>, why ramp up power demand at a time of climate crisis, only to replace what the Sun gives us for free?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/food-security-vertical-farming-sounds-fantastic-until-you-consider-its-energy-use-102657">Food security: vertical farming sounds fantastic until you consider its energy use</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/micro-naps-for-plants-flicking-the-lights-on-and-off-can-save-energy-without-hurting-indoor-agriculture-harvests-120051">Micro-naps for plants: Flicking the lights on and off can save energy without hurting indoor agriculture harvests</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246422/original/file-20181120-161612-rjklnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Who needs humans?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/smart-robotic-farmers-agriculture-futuristic-robot-1149341534?src=EbcmegHOr4ARrcXtt8W5sg-1-3">Kung_tom/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For agricultural ecologist Michel Pimbert and food systems expert Colin Anderson, both at Coventry University, there are deeper problems with a high-tech agricultural future. They argue that it would:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>reinforce the concentration of political and economic power in the hands of a <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Innovation_with_a_Purpose_VF-reduced.pdf">small number of corporations</a>, such as the World Economic Forum’s “<a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Innovation_with_a_Purpose_VF-reduced.pdf">Transformative Twelve</a>”; technologies that intend to redesign food systems, but are already under growing monopoly control</p></li>
<li><p>further increase the role that financial markets play in controlling food systems, risking the repeat of earlier <a href="https://www.righttofoodandnutrition.org/files/rtfn-watch-2018_eng.pdf">food crises</a></p></li>
<li><p>result in an increasingly nature-less and people-less food system. As they put it:</p></li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>Flying robots will pollinate crops instead of living bees. Automated machines will replace farmers’ work on soil preparation, seeding, weeding, fertility, pest control and harvesting of crops.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-the-future-of-farming-what-you-need-to-know-106805">The battle for the future of farming: what you need to know</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Agroecology: because nature knows best</h2>
<p>Rather than filling the gaps humans have created in the biosphere with technology, Pimbert and Anderson suggest that the biosphere itself can help solve the food crisis.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/techno-fix-futures-will-only-accelerate-climate-chaos-dont-believe-the-hype-125678">Techno-fix futures will only accelerate climate chaos – don't believe the hype</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Agroecology – a system of farming that <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i9037en/I9037EN.pdf">uses or mimics natural interactions between organisms and their environments</a> – has been highlighted as the most promising pathway to sustainable food by <a href="http://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/7862">several UN reports</a>. According to Karen Rial-Lovera, a senior lecturer in agriculture at Nottingham Trent University, agroecologists promotes <a href="https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0169-5347%2818%2930273-8">circular systems for growing food</a> that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>improve soil quality</strong> by planting nutrient-fixing “cover crops” in between harvest crops, rotating crops across fields each season, and composting organic waste – often including human manure</p></li>
<li><p><strong>support wildlife</strong>, store carbon, and conserve water through the planting of trees and wildflower banks</p></li>
<li><p><strong>control pests and diseases</strong> by harnessing natural repellents and traps. Peppermint, for example, disgusts the flea beetle, a scourge to oilseed rape farmers.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-farms-of-the-future-can-feed-the-planet-and-heal-it-too-128853">Three ways farms of the future can feed the planet and heal it too</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308088/original/file-20191220-11946-qx4hma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nasturtiums are pest magnets – and they’re edible too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bright-nasturtium-flowers-green-colorful-leaves-1025596633">Shutova Elena/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As Pimbert and Anderson explain, agroecology can also help break monopoly power over food systems and return control over the way food is produced, traded and consumed to communities. The system’s short food chains and local markets <a href="https://theconversation.com/break-agricultures-chemical-monopolies-to-free-our-food-16497">reduce the dependence of farmers</a> on expensive external inputs, distant commodity markets and patented technologies.</p>
<p>Research and innovations in agroecology are also being driven largely <a href="http://www.agroecologynow.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Farming-Matters-Agroecology-EN.pdf">from the bottom up</a> by civil society, social movements and allied researchers. Pimbert and Anderson argue that this offers hope that the system can regenerate not just local ecologies, but local economies and livelihoods too, increasing the income, working conditions, skills and political capital of small-scale farmers. They believe that, compared to technology-dependent visions of agriculture, it’s much more likely to nourish communities in a fair, ecologically regenerative, and culturally rich way.</p>
<h2>Millennia of trial and error</h2>
<p>Many agroecological practices are nothing new. As Anna Krzywoszynska – associate director of the University of Sheffield’s Institute for Sustainable Food – explains, while limited soil fertility can now be bypassed with <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-land-report-shows-the-problem-with-farming-based-around-oil-not-soil-121643">fossil fuel-derived fertilisers</a>, for most of human history, using the local environment and labour to maintain soils in a good state was key to survival. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-land-report-shows-the-problem-with-farming-based-around-oil-not-soil-121643">IPCC's land report shows the problem with farming based around oil, not soil</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are plenty of success stories from ancient civilisations that managed to do just that with rather simple means. Kelly Reed, an archaeobotanist at the University of Oxford, thinks we could learn a thing or two from them when building a sustainable future for food. She shares how in southern China, farmers add fish to their rice paddy fields in a method that dates back 2,000 years. </p>
<p>The fish are an additional protein source, so the system produces more food than rice farming alone. They also provide a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/108/50/E1381.short">natural pest control</a> by eating weeds and harmful pests such as the <a href="http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/training/fact-sheets/pest-management/insects/item/planthopper">rice planthopper</a>. Compared to fields that only grow rice, rice-fish farming increases <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12562-010-0299-2">rice yields</a> by up to 20%, while using less of the agricultural chemicals that pollute water and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-land-report-shows-the-problem-with-farming-based-around-oil-not-soil-121643">generate greenhouse gases</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287510/original/file-20190809-144868-15e9lpw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rice-fish farms produce more food and need fewer chemical pesticides.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mina-padi-cultivation-rice-fields-combination-1090069508?src=GMIpY9ixwMjwQPDaWFZ0TA-1-14">Tirtaperwitasari/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But according to Reed this practice, like many others with ancient history, is a dying art. Today, smallholder rice-fish paddies are increasingly being pushed out by larger commercial organisations wishing to expand monoculture rice or fish farms. </p>
<h2>Power to the producers</h2>
<p>But research suggests it’s not too late to reorient farms around age-old wisdom and natural solutions. <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/mj760e/mj760e.pdf">At least 75%</a> of the world’s 1.5 billion smallholder farmers <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00139157.2018.1472507">still practise agroecological techniques today</a>.</p>
<p>Most of these are in emerging economies such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa – countries in which industrial agriculture also occupies a growing share of land. Boosting small-scale farming <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-developing-countries-should-boost-the-ways-of-small-scale-farming-100097">is particularly important for such countries</a>, say University of Cape Town’s Rachel Wynberg and Stellenbosch University’s Laura Pereira, both experts in agricultural transformations.</p>
<p>They argue that these emerging economies could and should invest heavily in agroecological research and training programmes, especially where resources are scarce. If they do, they could avoid having to depend on technology and monopolies for food security, improve the livelihoods of small-scale, resource-poor and often marginalised farmers, and address the environmental damage wrought by industrial agriculture at the same time. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-developing-countries-should-boost-the-ways-of-small-scale-farming-100097">Why developing countries should boost the ways of small-scale farming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Carbon farming</h2>
<p>Nature-inspired agriculture can also play an important role in tackling the climate crisis – and not just from using less fertiliser. </p>
<p>Healthy peatlands contain more carbon than <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011EO120001">all the world’s vegetation combined</a>, but the vast majority of them <a href="https://www.schweizerbart.de/publications/detail/isbn/9783510653836/Joosten_Tanneberger_Moen_Mires_and_peat">throughout Europe</a> and much of the world have been drained and converted into farm fields. The drained peat soils that stand in their place emit vast quantities of carbon dioxide – the total emitted each year from just the UK’s East Anglian Fens and damaged upland peat soils may be equivalent to around <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-how-agriculture-can-both-feed-people-and-fight-climate-change-111593">30% of the country’s annual car emissions</a>.</p>
<p>This widespread draining is largely owed to the fact that our agricultural system spread from the dry semi-desert conditions of the Middle East during the shift from hunter-gathering to settled farming. This means that farming has been dominated for the past 5,000 years by the principle that dry land is good and wet land is bad.</p>
<p>Peatland conservationist Richard Lindsay <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-how-agriculture-can-both-feed-people-and-fight-climate-change-111593">wants to change farming’s celebration of dryness</a>. He says that wetlands can provide highly productive new forms of farming that not only grow crops, but also reduce the risk of floods and add to rather than deplete reservoirs of soil carbon.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sphagnum cultivation: the moss is useful as it is excellent at retaining water and nutrients.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neal Wright</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Germany, for instance, a type of “bulrush” is already being grown on wetlands and used to produce fire-resistant <a href="https://typhaboard.com/">building board</a>. At the University of East London, Lindsay is testing two potential crops: sphagnum bog moss as a <a href="https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FR021686%2F1">replacement for peat</a> in garden-centre “grow bags”, and “sweet grass” as a food crop.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-how-agriculture-can-both-feed-people-and-fight-climate-change-111593">Carbon farming: how agriculture can both feed people and fight climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the future then, many farmers could be cultivating carbon as well as crops. Here’s a vision for what life could be like for a “carbon farmer” three or four generations from now:</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/303463841" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In the future, farmers could be peatland guardians, producing crops and healing the planet.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking the carbon out of cows</h2>
<p>It’s impossible to discuss farming and the climate crisis without mentioning animal agriculture. The livestock industry alone accounts for about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/11/meat-tax-inevitable-to-beat-climate-and-health-crises-says-report">15% of global emissions</a>. But, according to Rial-Lovera, that doesn’t mean it should be done away with entirely.</p>
<p>Rial-Lovera outlines how carefully managed grazing can actually help the environment, not harm it. Grassland captures carbon dioxide. Animals eat the grass, and then return that carbon to the soil as excrement. The nutrients in the excrement and the continuous grazing of grass both help new grass roots to grow, increasing the capacity of the land to capture carbon.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308087/original/file-20191220-11904-3sboy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carefully managed grazing can help the environment, not harm it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/qvVgDIE05PI">Millie Olsen/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Keep too many grazing animals in one place for too long and they eat too much grass and produce too much excrement for the soil to absorb, meaning carbon is lost to the atmosphere. But if small numbers are constantly rotated into different fields, the soil can <a href="https://www.fcrn.org.uk/sites/default/files/project-files/fcrn_gnc_report.pdf">store enough extra carbon</a> to counterbalance the extra methane emitted by the digestive rumblings of livestock.</p>
<p>Ian Lunt – associate professor of vegetation ecology and management at Charles Sturt University in Australia – insists that livestock bring other benefits to the land too. They keep soil naturally fertilised, and can <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-livestock-grazing-benefit-biodiversity-10789">also improve biodiversity</a> by eating more aggressively competitive plants, allowing others to grow. And if local breeds are adopted, they generally don’t require expensive feed and veterinary care, as they’re adapted to local conditions.</p>
<p>University of California animal biotechnologist Alison Van Eenannaam <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cows-are-getting-a-bad-rap-in-lab-grown-meat-debate-103716">argues</a> that this is a much more environmentally friendly way of producing meat than lab-grown equivalents. She writes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nature has already developed a fully functional biological fermentation bioreactor for the conversion of inedible solar-powered cellulosic material, such as grass, into high-quality protein. It is called a cow.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cows-are-getting-a-bad-rap-in-lab-grown-meat-debate-103716">Why cows are getting a bad rap in lab-grown meat debate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Less grazing, more rewilding</h2>
<p>But the global livestock population will still need to fall drastically if agriculture is to stem rather than accelerate global heating. In the UK at least, this transition can bring multiple environmental benefits without compromising the livelihoods of livestock farmers, says the University of St Andrews’ Ian Boyd.</p>
<p>Around 20% of the UK’s farms account for 80% of the country’s total food production, and they do this on about half of all the farmed land there is. At least 80% of farms in the UK don’t produce very much at all, and <a href="https://fullfact.org/economy/farming-subsidies-uk/">rely heavily on government subsidies</a> to stay viable. Livestock farms are the least profitable of all, yet they take up <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/articles/uknaturalcapitallandcoverintheuk/2015-03-17">45% of the UK’s land surface</a>.</p>
<p>Instead of propping up unproductive crop and grazing land, subsidies could instead task farmers with rewilding their land to forest or other habitats that can lock away CO₂ and expand habitats for wildlife, says Boyd. Farmers could also be rewarded for opening land near urban areas for public access, creating places of recreation that <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(08)61689-X/fulltex">support human wellbeing</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300082/original/file-20191104-88382-v7xx70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spending just two hours a week in nature has been shown to benefit a person’s health and mental wellbeing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/2ShvY8Lf6l0">Lukasz Szmigiel/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This would free up not only grazing land, but vast swathes of land currently used to grow animal feed. The livestock industry is an inefficient use of land – only 10-20% of the vegetable matter fed to livestock is converted into meat. <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-081710-161014">Around 75%</a> of the calories fed to livestock in the UK comes from land that could produce human food, or be rewilded, says Boyd.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-crisis-the-countryside-could-be-our-greatest-ally-if-we-can-reform-farming-126304">Climate crisis: the countryside could be our greatest ally – if we can reform farming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rewild-25-of-the-uk-for-less-climate-change-more-wildlife-and-a-life-lived-closer-to-nature-123836">Rewild 25% of the UK for less climate change, more wildlife and a life lived closer to nature</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Anything is possible</h2>
<p>Of course, this would mean us all eating much less meat. Bringing people on board with this might seem like an impossible task. But Paul Young, associate professor of Victorian literature and culture at the University of Exeter, shows us that meat-eating habits are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-victorians-caused-the-meat-eating-crisis-the-world-faces-today-but-they-might-help-us-solve-it-109310">more malleable than we might think</a>.</p>
<p>In 19th-century Britain, a fast increasing population caused a mid-Victorian “meat famine”. To stave it off, groundbreaking preservation and transportation technologies were developed that enabled the British to eat livestock reared in the Americas and Australasia. This laid the foundations for the global meat markets that support the <a href="https://eatforum.org/content/uploads/2019/01/EAT-Lancet_Commission_Summary_Report.pdf">overproduction and consumption of meat today</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252721/original/file-20190107-32127-16b6x4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today’s mechanised meat industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/meat-processing-plant-carcasses-beef-hang-740301826?src=LCp0yH4B5kYyYQ1qGVW3ag-1-7">Mehmet Cetin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mass marketing campaigns alongside positive media coverage also helped promote these new forms of meat, until they became seen as an essential part of everyday meals for all. As a result, per capita meat consumption <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3742485?read-now=1&seq=3#metadata_info_tab_contents">rose by nearly half</a> between the 1850s and the 1910s, despite the fact that Britain’s population nearly doubled during this period.</p>
<p>The globalisation of Victorian meat eating was revolutionary, but it was also highly controversial. Many were wary of eating long-dead animals from far flung parts of the world. Overseas competition provoked demands to protect British agriculture, both to preserve traditional ways of life and to guarantee food security. Animal rights campaigners too were concerned at the increasingly intensive farming methods and assembly line slaughter techniques associated with developing meat markets.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-victorians-caused-the-meat-eating-crisis-the-world-faces-today-but-they-might-help-us-solve-it-109310">The Victorians caused the meat eating crisis the world faces today – but they might help us solve it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For Young, this Victorian history shows that hundreds of millions of people eat meat in the way and the quantities they do, not because they’re inherently designed to do so, but because of a global system set in motion by British imperial power. Not so long ago, the prospect of eating frozen lamb from the other side of the world provoked scepticism and disgust. Who’s to say that we can’t transform our dietary habits once more – or the future of our food system, for that matter?</p>
<h2>Further reading</h2>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-tax-why-taxing-sausages-and-bacon-could-save-hundreds-of-thousands-of-lives-every-year-106399">Meat tax: why taxing sausages and bacon could save hundreds of thousands of lives every year</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-insects-can-help-fight-hunger-in-the-world-104951">How insects can help fight hunger in the world</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/eight-ways-to-halt-a-global-food-crisis-118436">Eight ways to halt a global food crisis</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-gardeners-are-reclaiming-agriculture-from-industry-one-seed-at-a-time-128071">How gardeners are reclaiming agriculture from industry, one seed at a time</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-know-how-food-production-needs-to-change-if-crisis-is-to-be-avoided-so-why-isnt-this-happening-92903">We know how food production needs to change if crisis is to be avoided – so why isn’t this happening?</a></p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1129041">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We all need to eat. Experts imagine how the next agricultural revolution can feed us while fighting climate change and habitat destruction, instead of accelerating it.Jordan Raine, Commissioning EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1167062019-05-10T12:44:13Z2019-05-10T12:44:13ZWales’s past was in coal but its future is in carbon farming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273795/original/file-20190510-183080-h5pe4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sheep-on-mountain-south-wales-159339512?src=LKhXky-93RR2u4PtITC23A-1-15">Thomas Jeffries/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">new report</a> from the Committee on Climate Change has outlined how the UK should – and could – reduce its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. While an ambitious target in itself, the commission predicts Scotland can meet it a little earlier, by 2045, while England will hit the target on time. Wales, however, has only been set a goal of 95% reduction by 2050.</p>
<p>Coming just days after <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48093720">Wales declared a climate emergency</a>, the reduced goal has been <a href="https://gov.wales/written-statement-committee-climate-change-advice-long-term-emissions-target">met with understanding</a> from the Welsh government – but why is it that the committee believes Wales cannot meet net zero? With wind power now cheaper than fossil fuel sources, polluting coal and gas fired power stations will not be replaced in Wales, meaning that the electricity sector should be relatively straightforward to decarbonise. </p>
<p>However, the accompanying analysis notes that Wales has relatively little capacity for carbon capture and storage, to take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and trap it underground. Progress in other areas has been slow too. The report states that less than 5% of the energy used for heating buildings comes from low-carbon sources across the UK, and less than 0.5% of the miles driven are in low-carbon vehicles. But the reduced target is not because of these areas alone – it is mainly due to the fact that the agricultural industry will be difficult to decarbonise. </p>
<h2>Farmers’ burden</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://gweddill.gov.wales/statistics-and-research/survey-agricultural-horticulture/?lang=en">90% of the land</a> in Wales is in the hands of
“<a href="https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/consultations/2018-07/brexit-and-our-land-consultation-document_0.pdf">farmers, foresters or other stewards of the landscape</a>”. Climate, soil quality and landscape make the country relatively unsuited to arable agriculture, so the industry is dominated by cattle and sheep, which produce the potent greenhouse gas methane as part of their digestive process. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-will-affect-dairy-cows-and-milk-production-in-the-uk-new-study-101843">How climate change will affect dairy cows and milk production in the UK – new study</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>From a farmer’s perspective, it might seem that agriculture is being asked to shoulder a large burden of emission reductions compared to other sectors. But looking at the detail, the report suggests almost the opposite. It recognises that agriculture is particularly hard to decarbonise but, the problem is that given the measures proposed for other sectors, the committee’s figures show agriculture will go from its current position as one of the UK’s lower emission sectors to a major emitter by 2050. </p>
<iframe title="2050 emissions by sector in the UK." aria-label="Stacked Column Chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eYKuX/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="569"></iframe>
<p>Livestock farming is the lifeblood of the rural economy in Wales, with enormous cultural and historical significance. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/mar/04/communities.business">economic collapse</a> that followed the closure of coal mines in the South Wales valleys is a lesson in how not to change the status quo. Unemployment is still high in this area decades afterwards. The question then is how Welsh farming can respond to changes in consumer demand and climate change without damaging the economy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-how-agriculture-can-both-feed-people-and-fight-climate-change-111593">Carbon farming: how agriculture can both feed people and fight climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The committee’s recommendations include a reduction of between 20% and 50% in beef, lamb and dairy consumption. It notes that even this target would still mean we will be eating more of these foods than recommended in healthy eating guidelines. In order for these dietary shifts to reduce emissions in practice, farmers will need to produce less livestock rather than simply export any excess. This means that <a href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/science-and-technology-committee/technologies-for-meeting-clean-growth-emissions-reduction-targets/oral/101230.html">redesigning agricultural support payments</a> will be an essential component of any change.</p>
<h2>From coal to carbon</h2>
<p>Work by our colleagues in Aberystwyth has led to <a href="https://impact.ref.ac.uk/casestudies/CaseStudy.aspx?Id=42089">incremental improvements</a> in the efficiency of ruminant agriculture via grassland improvement and animal breeding. For example, reseeding pasture with high sugar grass increases milk production in dairy cattle and weight gain in both beef and sheep, and reduces negative environmental impacts. These grass varieties now account for almost a third of perennial rye grass seed sales across Wales, as farmers improve their land. </p>
<p>However, livestock efficiency gains alone are unlikely to be sufficient, so by 2050 Wales will need to be farming differently. The committee’s report suggests that a fifth of agricultural land will need to be used for other purposes, such as growing <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/biomass-in-a-low-carbon-economy/">bioenergy crops</a>, which can be burned to generate electricity, and forestry that can <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/click/2018/02/wales-needs-trees-arent-planting/">sequester carbon</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/agroforestry-can-help-the-uk-meet-climate-change-commitments-without-cutting-livestock-numbers-108395">Agroforestry can help the UK meet climate change commitments without cutting livestock numbers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The day-to-day practicalities of farming for carbon are not the same as farming for food, but turning over 20% of a farm to a different purpose does not need to spell the end of a culture or a way of life. By 2050 Wales can have a bio-economy, one based on natural resources rather than fossil fuels. Other industries that are reliant on fossil fuels will also need to change; plastics can already be made from <a href="https://www.wrap.org.uk/content/understanding-plastic-packaging-pdf">plants instead of oil</a>, and the construction industry is increasingly turning to <a href="https://www.arup.com/perspectives/publications/research/section/rethinking-timber-buildings">timber engineering</a> to reduce its reliance on concrete. These changes will create demand for plant feedstocks that Welsh farmers will be well placed to provide. </p>
<p>Reaching the 95% emission target by 2050 is ambitious but achievable. For Wales to reach net zero, sacrifices will need to be made, both by industry and the public. As a nation, Wales is blessed with natural resources — they are not in short supply. Farmers are key to realising this opportunity. While the recent history of Wales was built on coal, its future will be built on the bio-economy.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116706">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Thornton works for Aberystwyth University, on the BEACON project. BEACON is funded through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) by the Welsh European Funding Office (WEFO), part of the Welsh Government, under the Convergence programme for West Wales and the Valleys. She has an interest in low carbon building materials and bioenergy crops.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Donnison works for Aberystwyth University and receives research funding principally from the Biotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) for projects including a Core Strategic Programme in Resilient Crops, and the Supergen Bioenergy Hub, and also the Welsh European Funding Office for the BEACON Biorefing Centre through European Regional Development funds. He was a member of the external advisory group for the Climate Change Committee's Report on Bioenergy. </span></em></p>To hit emissions targets, Wales will need to drastically reassess how 90% of its landscape is used.Judith Thornton, Low Carbon Manager (BEACON), Aberystwyth UniversityIain Donnison, Professor of Biological Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1115932019-02-26T13:10:13Z2019-02-26T13:10:13ZCarbon farming: how agriculture can both feed people and fight climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260998/original/file-20190226-150712-bpm24b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=957%2C0%2C3405%2C1728&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A future farm?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shzphoto</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine “carbon emissions”, and what springs to mind? Most people tend to think of power stations belching out clouds of carbon dioxide or queues of vehicles burning up fossil fuels as they crawl, bumper-to-bumper, along congested urban roads. But in Britain and many other countries, carbon emissions have another source, one that is almost completely invisible. In the UK, these overlooked emissions come from our most extensive semi-natural habitat, yet it is a habitat which is almost invisible within the national consciousness.</p>
<p>The source of these emissions can be seen in the rich black peat soils of the East Anglian Fens, the Lancashire lowland plain, the Somerset Levels, the Forth Valley and indeed many lowland river flood plains, as well as in the hugely damaged peat soils of the UK’s uplands. The common thread here is “peat”, a soil derived almost entirely from semi-decomposed plant remains which have accumulated over thousands of years because the ground is waterlogged. Such peat soils are immensely carbon-rich because they largely consist of organic matter. Globally, peatlands contain more carbon than <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011EO120001">all the world’s vegetation combined</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261030/original/file-20190226-150712-1oc4vft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eroding soil in England’s Peak District.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Lindsay</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite this, peatlands rarely feature in our cultural consciousness other than as areas of struggle – “stuck in the mire”– or as places of despair or danger. In the uplands, beyond the boundary of cultivated land, extensive peat bogs are lost in the all-embracing term “moorland”, which is more of a cultural term than anything ecologically meaningful. At lower altitudes, living peatland has all but vanished. Britain has drained its fens and converted the land into highly productive fields. Much of East Anglia was once a vast fen peatland, for instance, but <a href="https://www.schweizerbart.de/publications/detail/isbn/9783510653836/Joosten_Tanneberger_Moen_Mires_and_peat">just 3%</a> of the original habitat remains today, in small scattered fragments. Such losses are mirrored <a href="https://www.schweizerbart.de/publications/detail/isbn/9783510653836/Joosten_Tanneberger_Moen_Mires_and_peat">throughout Europe</a>, while much of the debate about palm oil and forest fires in South-East Asia is actually about the draining and conversion of peatland swamp forest.</p>
<p>When peat soils are drained, the ground surface sinks, which is why large parts of East Anglia and the western Netherlands now lie below sea level. This is partly because peat shrinks and becomes more compact when it dries out, but there is also another key reason. Carbon in the now-dry peat reacts with oxygen to form carbon dioxide so each year some of the soil simply vanishes into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. While a sinking ground surface does pose ever-increasing flood risk, it is the release of CO₂ that has far wider implications.</p>
<p>Every hectare (one and a bit football pitches) of tilled peat soil with a water table lowered to 50 cm or more below the ground surface emits somewhere between <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/50635/">12 and 30 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent</a> (that is, all greenhouse gases, including CO₂) per year. To put this into context, that’s <a href="https://www.lightfoot.co.uk/news/2017/10/04/how-much-co2-does-a-car-emit-per-year/">ten times the emissions</a> of an average modern car travelling 10,000 miles per year. In fact, the total CO₂ emitted each year from just the East Anglian Fens and the UK’s damaged upland peat soils may be equivalent to around 30% of the country’s annual car emissions.</p>
<h2>Dry land good, wet land bad?</h2>
<p>The irony here is that, although these peat soils were created precisely because they were wetlands, and wetlands are some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, farming tends to celebrate dryness. Our agricultural system is based on ideas that spread from the dry semi-desert conditions of the Middle East during the Neolithic shift from hunter-gathering to settled farming. Farming has thus been dominated for the past 5,000 years by the principle that dry land is good and wet land is bad – indeed, a farmer who tolerates significant areas of wet ground on the farm is still widely regarded as a poor farmer.</p>
<p>Change is in the air, however. International climate obligations mean that countries are having to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, and in many parts of the world there are also increasing concerns about the spiralling <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDxmlvGiV9k">costs of flooding</a>. No wonder many researchers are now looking at the agricultural possibilities of re-wetting former wetlands in order to establish new forms of farming based on productive wetland species. </p>
<p>In Germany, for instance, a type of “bulrush” is already being used to produce fire-resistant <a href="https://typhaboard.com/">building board</a>. At the University of East London we are currently testing two potential crops: sphagnum bog moss as a <a href="https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FR021686%2F1">replacement for peat</a> in garden-centre “grow bags”, and “sweet grass” as a food crop. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261029/original/file-20190226-150728-cntx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sphagnum cultivation: the moss is useful as it is excellent at retaining water and nutrients.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neal Wright</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In only a few decades, traditional dryland farming on drained peat soils will be increasingly difficult as the rich organic soils vanish and flood prevention becomes too costly. By instead re-establishing wetland conditions, farms could reduce the risk of floods and retain the existing reservoirs of soil carbon but also potentially add new carbon to these long-term stores.</p>
<p>Indeed, the longer-term vision of farming for carbon as well as food, and all the other ecosystem benefits that come from healthy peatland ecosystems, may already be upon us. It is part of the UK government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/25-year-environment-plan">25 year environment plan</a>, and environment secretary <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/farming-for-the-next-generation">Michael Gove</a> has pointedly signalled his support. </p>
<p>Such a longer-term vision is also deftly expressed in a film titled “The Carbon Farmer” by Andrew Clark, which looks at what life might be like for a carbon farmer three or four generations from now: </p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/303463841" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers of the future may be tasked with storing carbon as well as producing food.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Everything in the film is already at least possible in one form or another. Our task is now to make it probable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Lindsay works in partnership with Micropropagation Services Ltd. He receives funding from Innovate UK in a partnership project looking at Sphagnum farming. He is affiliated with the IUCN UK Peatland Programme.</span></em></p>It’s time for farmers to embrace the wetland instead of draining it.Richard Lindsay, Head of Environmental and Conservation Research, Sustainability Research Institute, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/971782018-05-29T06:27:56Z2018-05-29T06:27:56ZQueensland’s new land-clearing laws are all stick and no carrot (but it’s time to do better)<p>The Queensland government passed legislation last month to prevent the clearing of high-value regrowth vegetation on freehold and Indigenous land. The move has been deeply unpopular with many landholders. They have <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/TabledPapers/2018/5618T489.pdf">argued</a> that they are footing the bill for the commmunity’s environmental aspirations – without compensation.</p>
<p>The government’s intention was to reinstate a “responsible vegetation management framework”, broadly in line with legislation first passed in 2004, but which the Newman government repealed in 2013. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-new-land-clearing-bill-will-help-turn-the-tide-despite-its-flaws-93370">Queensland's new land clearing bill will help turn the tide, despite its flaws</a>
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<p>But time has moved on since 2004. Instead of relying on a heavy-handed regulatory approach, a mix of carrots and sticks might have generated economic value for landholders, and reduced land clearing into the bargain.</p>
<h2>Why landholders are fuming</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, landholders are worried the government hasn’t listened to their concerns and won’t pay for the land that is now effectively under state regulatory control. The parliamentary committee set up to report on the bill received more than <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/TabledPapers/2018/5618T489.pdf">13,000 submissions</a> (including 777 non-pro-forma submissions) – the largest number received by any committee of the Queensland parliament. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-a-global-top-ten-deforester-and-queensland-is-leading-the-way-87259">Australia is a global top-ten deforester – and Queensland is leading the way</a>
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<p>The government itself has admitted stakeholders <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/TabledPapers/2018/5618T489.pdf">were not consulted</a> in the preparation of the bill, although the department report cites a “substantial history” of consultation on many of its measures. Nevertheless, the <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/TabledPapers/2018/5618T489.pdf">Queensland Law Society</a> felt that further consultation would have been appropriate given “the sensitive nature of this legislation”. </p>
<p>Many submissions raised concerns about information shortfalls, regulatory duplication and excessive red tape. The department’s fallback position was simply to <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/TabledPapers/2018/5618T489.pdf">argue</a> that “the proposed amendments are consistent with the government’s 2017 election commitment”.</p>
<p>Ironically, it is not only landholders who have lost out financially. The Queensland government is now effectively in control of an additional 1.76 million hectares of land, which it intends to leave undeveloped. But, in today’s world, the carbon stored in this land has a market price as well as an environmental value, if it’s <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/assets/documents/climate/unlocking-value-qld-from-offsets.pdf">properly managed</a>.</p>
<h2>Better alternatives</h2>
<p>With a little more preparation and creative thinking, the government might have been able to spare our vegetation, create a huge pool of lucrative carbon offsets ready to market to the world, and provide compensation to affected landholders. </p>
<p>For instance, instead of an outright prohibition on land clearing, the government could have put in place a three-year moratorium on land clearing. Landholders could then be given a chance to opt out of the moratorium by transferring their land to a permanent conservation covenant or similar arrangement. </p>
<p>Although some careful drafting would be required to ensure the offsets integrity <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2015C00012">standards</a> and other regulatory requirements are met, landholders who opted out of the temporary moratorium could become eligible to earn <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/assets/documents/climate/unlocking-value-qld-from-offsets.pdf">carbon offsets</a>, or any other available financial incentives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-carbon-farming-change-the-face-of-rural-australia-1603">Can carbon farming change the face of rural Australia?</a>
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<p>On the other hand, landholders who do not respond to this financial “carrot” would run the risk of being hit with the (uncompensated) “stick” of a more prescriptive approach (temporary or not) at the end of the moratorium period.</p>
<p>The government could help this transition along by helping landholders sign up for one or more of the various existing schemes for conservation covenants, carbon offsets and biodiversity offsets. One of the <a href="http://carbonmarketinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Carbon-Farming-Industry-Roadmap.pdf">main factors</a> preventing greater participation in these schemes is prohibitively high transaction costs, especially in the early stages. </p>
<p>I realise there is a degree of wishful thinking about this proposal. Several hurdles, particularly political ones, would need to be overcome. But if we want serious, fair and enduring land use reform, I think these options merit a more meaningful investigation. </p>
<p>At the moment, a heavy-handed sweep of a pen by politicians in Brisbane has locked both landholders and government out of the market for ecosystem services. Given that the government now essentially owns a huge store of carbon assets, it’s a missed opportunity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-emitters-opt-to-wait-and-see-over-emissions-reduction-fund-77160">Australia’s biggest emitters opt to 'wait and see' over Emissions Reduction Fund</a>
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<p>With a little more creative thinking, Queensland might have provided compensation to landholders at no cost to itself. Instead, it has used a regulatory hammer to impose rules that – judging by past performance – have no guarantee of surviving past the next election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippa England does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland’s new land-clearing laws are a huge missed opportunity.Philippa England, Senior Lecturer, Griffith Law School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/941122018-04-06T04:26:18Z2018-04-06T04:26:18ZThe Nationals should support carbon farming, not coal<p>National Party MP George Christensen has invited other Nationals to join the recently formed pro-coal “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">Monash Forum</a>”. But is coal in the best interests of their rural constituents, particularly farmers? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">The pro-coal 'Monash Forum' may do little but blacken the name of a revered Australian</a>
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<p>Farmers stand to lose from any weakening of the government’s climate change policies. That is why farmers and their political representatives should be concerned about a current <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/consultations/86381168-b3cf-405a-bc79-90eb651c5731/files/safeguard-mechanism-consultation-paper-2018.pdf">review</a> of the government’s greenhouse gas reduction policy. </p>
<p>What is at stake here is the strange-sounding idea of carbon farming. To explain this idea takes several steps, so bear with me.</p>
<p>The policy under review is a legacy of the Abbott era. As prime minister, Tony Abbott abolished the carbon tax and replaced it with an <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/government/emissions-reduction-fund/about">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> (ERF). The ERF was to be used to pay businesses to reduce their carbon emissions, or to capture and sequester (store) carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-tax-axed-how-it-affects-you-australia-and-our-emissions-28895">Carbon tax axed: how it affects you, Australia and our emissions</a>
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<p>As it turns out, most of the funding has gone to rural enterprises that have developed various farming projects that qualify for funding – hence the term, carbon farming. </p>
<p><a href="http://carbonmarketinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Carbon-Farming-Industry-Roadmap.pdf">For example</a>, these projects include:</p>
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<li>regenerating native forest on previously cleared land</li>
<li>changed farming practices to allow for crop stubble retention</li>
<li>capturing and destroying the methane from effluent waste at piggeries.</li>
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<h2>How does carbon farming work?</h2>
<p>To make it all work, the government first created the system of Australian Carbon Credit Units (<a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/OSR/ANREU/types-of-emissions-units/australian-carbon-credit-units">ACCU</a>s). This system commodifies the outputs of carbon farming, so these can be traded. </p>
<p>In this system, a carbon farmer must show either a reduction in emissions, or carbon sequestration (or ideally both), according to clearly specified criteria. The government will then issue (free of charge) one credit for every tonne of carbon dioxide (CO₂) – or CO₂ equivalent – abated in this way. Farmers can then sell these credits, thus receiving a direct financial return for their efforts. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://carbonmarketinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Carbon-Farming-Industry-Roadmap.pdf">primary buyer</a> of ACCUs at the moment is the government, via its Emissions Reduction Fund. Farmers (individually or as collectives) who want to embark on carbon farming projects are asked to nominate a price they would need to make it profitable for them to go ahead with the project. Through a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-todays-direct-action-reverse-auction-work-40152">reverse auction</a>, the fund selects the lowest-price proposals. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-todays-direct-action-reverse-auction-work-40152">Explainer: how does today's Direct Action reverse auction work?</a>
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<p>In this way, the government gets the greatest carbon abatement for the least money. Successful bidders embark on their projects knowing that they have a guaranteed price for their carbon abatement outcomes. There is nothing magical or mystical about it. It is simply the price at which the buyer and sellers of carbon credits find it mutually advantageous to do business.</p>
<p>The average price paid at the last auction round was <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/carbon-price-jumps-in-maiden-run-for-tony-abbotts-emissions-trading-scheme-20180313-h0xfhl">A$12 per tonne</a> of CO₂ abated. This is the current carbon price in this particular market. </p>
<h2>The Safeguard Mechanism</h2>
<p>A second potential set of buyers of carbon credits was created by the Safeguard Mechanism, introduced by the Abbott government. This caps emissions from big industrial emitters in order to to ensure that abatement achieved by the ERF is not offset or cancelled out. </p>
<p>The cap is set at whatever the maximum emission rate from the emitter has been. So it is not designed to reduce emissions from these big emitters, but simply to hold them to current levels. </p>
<p>The scheme covers just over 150 facilities, which are responsible for about <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/consultations/86381168-b3cf-405a-bc79-90eb651c5731/files/safeguard-mechanism-consultation-paper-2018.pdf">half of Australia’s emissions</a>. Emitters that go over their limit can remain in compliance by buying enough carbon credits to compensate for their “excess” emissions and <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">surrendering these to government</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-emitters-opt-to-wait-and-see-over-emissions-reduction-fund-77160">Australia’s biggest emitters opt to 'wait and see' over Emissions Reduction Fund</a>
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<p>This policy is now beginning to bite. The government has just <a href="http://carbonmarketinstitute.org/safeguard-mechanism-reboots-australias-carbon-market/">announced</a> that in the first period for which the policy has been in effect, some 16 large emitters were in excess and had to buy 448,000 carbon credits to remain in compliance. Among the biggest buyers were:</p>
<ul>
<li>Anglo Coal’s Capcoal mining operations</li>
<li>Glencore’s Tahmoor Coal</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s Alcan Gove aluminium operations</li>
<li>BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Coal/BM Alliance.</li>
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<p>These companies bought their credits from carbon farmers who abated more carbon then they had calculated, and so had a surplus left over for sale. </p>
<p>But what is most interesting is the <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/carbon-price-jumps-in-maiden-run-for-tony-abbotts-emissions-trading-scheme-20180313-h0xfhl">price</a> that excess emitters were willing to pay for the surplus credits. Most of the sales were in the region of $14-15 per tonne (T), but the price rose to $17-18/T as the deadline approached. </p>
<p>This means that the price spiked at 50% higher than the most recent ERF auction price of $12/T.</p>
<p>Commentators describe this as a secondary market, and the price in this market is exciting news for carbon farmers. <a href="http://carbonmarketinstitute.org/safeguard-mechanism-reboots-australias-carbon-market/">According to Australian Carbon Market Institute CEO Peter Castellas</a>, “Australia now has a functioning carbon market.” Carbon farmers – who make up an increasing proportion of the Nationals’ constituency – will do well if this market expands. </p>
<p>One way to develop the market would be to slowly lower the caps on big emitters so they must either buy more carbon credits or find ways to reduce their own emissions.</p>
<p>From this point of view, there is good reason to progressively and predictably reduce the emissions allowed under the Safeguard Mechanism.</p>
<h2>The current review</h2>
<p>Here’s where we get to the current review. As already noted, the Safeguard Mechanism does not seek to reduce emissions from big emitters. In fact, it allows for an increase in emissions to accommodate business growth. Nevertheless, big emitters are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/biggest-polluters-get-clear-path-to-hike-emissions-under-plan-20180227-p4z1y1.html">still unhappy</a>.</p>
<p>The government’s review is a response to business concerns. An initial <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/consultations/86381168-b3cf-405a-bc79-90eb651c5731/files/safeguard-mechanism-consultation-paper-2018.pdf">consultation paper</a> has proposed making it easier to raise the cap on a company’s emissions as its activity grows. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-emissions-reduction-fund-could-work-if-well-designed-20460">An Emissions Reduction Fund could work, if well designed</a>
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<p>If the rules are altered in this way, the demand for carbon credits may stall, and even decline, bringing to an end to this promising new source of revenue for farmers. </p>
<p>That is why members of parliament with rural constituencies should take note. Rural MPs should not sit by and allow the government to respond to the interests of the coal industry and other lobby groups.</p>
<p>Carbon farming depends on reducing the caps under the Safeguard Mechanism, not raising them. This would also be a step in the direction of achieving the emissions reduction target to which Australia agreed at the Paris meetings in 2015.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Hopkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Proposed changes to the government’s climate change policies may stall, or even close down, the market for ‘carbon farmers’ to profit from reducing carbon dioxide emissions.Andrew Hopkins, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/548992016-03-29T19:06:43Z2016-03-29T19:06:43ZFarming in 2050: storing carbon could help meet Australia’s climate goals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115216/original/image-20160316-25496-12hpzgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farming land in New South Wales</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s agricultural lands help to feed about <a href="http://www.farminstitute.org.au/ag-forum/australia-exports-enough-food">60 million people</a> worldwide, and also support <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features10Dec+2012">tens of thousands of farmers</a> as well as rural communities and industries. </p>
<p>But a growing global population with a growing appetite is placing increasing demands on our agricultural land. At the same time, the climate is warming and in many places getting drier too. </p>
<p>Agriculture, and particularly livestock, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reduce-greenhouse-gases-from-cows-and-sheep-we-need-to-look-at-the-big-picture-56509">currently a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions</a>. But new markets and incentives could make storing carbon or producing energy from land more profitable than farming, and turn our agricultural land into a carbon sink. </p>
<p>How might these competing forces play out in changing Australian land use? Our research, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300231">published in Global Environmental Change</a>, assesses a range of potential pathways for Australia’s agricultural land as part of <a href="http://www.csiro.au/nationaloutlook/">CSIRO’s National Outlook</a>.</p>
<h2>Changing landscapes</h2>
<p>The only constant in landscapes is change. Ecosystems are always changing in response to natural drivers such as fire and flood. </p>
<p>Humans have complicated things. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-biggest-estate-on-earth-how-aborigines-made-australia-3787">Indigenous Australians manipulated the Australian landscape</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-aboriginal-burning-changed-australias-climate-4454">climate</a> through burning for millennia, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/68AE74ED632E17A6CA2573D200110075?opendocument">sustaining a population of around 750,000</a> and underpinning a culture. </p>
<p>European colonisation brought a different and more pervasive change, <a href="http://jpe.oxfordjournals.org/content/5/1/109.abstract">clearing land</a>, building cities, damming rivers and establishing an increasingly mechanised and industrialised agriculture. </p>
<p>These iconic but changed landscapes inspired the romantic art of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Streeton">Arthur Streeton</a> and poetry of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjo_Paterson">Banjo Paterson</a> among many others — and helped forge a young nation’s identity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114580/original/image-20160310-31864-qwdezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">‘Still glides the stream, and shall for ever glide’, 1890. Arthur Streeton. The Art Gallery of NSW describes the painting as ‘an idealised vision of the Yarra River at Heidelberg, with the Doncaster Tower in the middle distance and the Dandenong Ranges beyond’.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Change can happen surprisingly quickly. Often before we know it we’ve gone too far and need to scramble for fixes that are so often costly, slow and ultimately inadequate. </p>
<p>For example, in South Australia, researchers in the early 1960s raised the alarm that the feverish post-war period of soldier resettlement, land clearance and agricultural development threatened entire native plant and animal communities with extinction. The government’s response over the following 30 years was to expand greatly the conservation reserve network and eventually prohibit land clearing.</p>
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<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=zXUWIAKxCpHk.kLpt_wSpBC7U" width="100%" height="480"></iframe>
<figcaption>A modern vision of Arthur Streeton’s Heidelberg, dominated by suburban Melbourne.</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>History repeating?</h2>
<p>Agricultural lands produce a range of goods and services. But in many places the focus on agricultural productivity has come at the expense of ecosystems. <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/topics/science-and-research/state-environment-reporting">Biodiversity, soil and water are all on downward trends</a>.</p>
<p>Is the balance right? Opinion varies. <a href="https://concernedqldscientists.wordpress.com/">Many would say no</a>, and consider the status quo to be stacked strongly against the environment. </p>
<p>Others see agriculture as entering a boom time, driven by <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45165#.Vm5SL0r5guU">growing population</a> and rising food prices. Substantial interest from <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/ForeignInvest">overseas investors</a> in Australian agricultural land reflects this opportunity.</p>
<p>Parts of Australia’s agricultural land continue to change fast. Lessons hard-learned by South Australia seem to have been forgotten. Rates of <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">land clearance in Queensland are rising again since 2010</a> after a long-term trend of decline. </p>
<p>In the 1990s, new financial incentives led to the planting of over <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwirrZKe5sHLAhUiroMKHXqcCx8QFggbMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newforests.com.au%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F06%2FNew-Forests-MIS-Review.pdf&usg=AFQjCNEnDjOUZUzL-CKWmUcXFB8vXBSVNg&sig2=cuplW75G-Lz08_Wr5IjMOQ">1 million hectares</a> of forest in southern Australia. Now a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-plantation-boom-has-gone-bust-so-lets-make-them-carbon-farms-49754">failed business model</a>, many of these plantations are being <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-28/managed-investment-schemes-plantation-sales-nsw/6810410">returned to agriculture</a>. </p>
<p>Demand for more secure sources of energy has generated rapid expansion of coal seam gas and wind power generation, and the development of <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Water-resources/Assessing-water-resources/Flinders-Gilbert">northern Australia</a> remains a bipartisan priority.</p>
<p>Worldwide, Australia is not alone — many international examples also exist of recent, massive, rapid and accelerating changes in how land is used.</p>
<p>Australia has historically taken a hands-off approach to managing land use change, instead focusing on increasing the productivity and competitiveness of agriculture. Apart from a handful of planning and environmental regulations, the use of land has been subject to minimal governance or strategic direction. </p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>What is it that Australians really want from our land? We know what we don’t want: wall-to-wall crops, pasture, buildings, gas wells, mines, wind farms or trees. </p>
<p>We can expect healthy debate around the margins, but, in general, diversity, productivity and sustainability seem to be widely valued. Most of us want to leave the place in decent condition for future generations.</p>
<p>Europe has had this conversation and knows what it wants from its landscapes — and it’s not afraid to pay for it (for instance, through agricultural subsidies). A deep aesthetic and cultural heritage is the central objective, with a balance of recreation opportunities, tourism, a clean and healthy environment and high-quality produce all being high priorities.</p>
<p>Once we know what we want, we can work out how to get there. </p>
<p>That’s where science can help. We now have the ability to project <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2874.html">changes in land use in response to policy</a> and global change, and the environmental and economic consequences.</p>
<p>CSIRO’s recent <a href="http://www.csiro.au/nationaloutlook/">National Outlook</a> mapped Australia’s potential future pathways. A companion paper in <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v527/n7576/full/nature16065.html">Nature</a> found that it is possible to achieve strong economic growth and reduce environmental pressure, if we put the right policies in place now. It provides a glimpse of how our rural lands might respond to coalescing future change pressures. </p>
<h2>Farming carbon</h2>
<p>In our modelling, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001186">carbon sequestration</a> in the land sector plays a key role of Australia’s future. Land systems can help with the heavy lifting required to <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en">hold global warming to 2°C</a> as recently agreed in Paris.</p>
<p>There are <a href="http://www.nerplandscapes.edu.au/system/files/Bryan%20et%20al%20(2013)%202nd%20Industrial%20Transformation%20of%20Australian%20Landscapes%20-%20J%20Current%20Opinions%20in%20Sustainability.pdf">several factors that could drive this change</a>, including climate, carbon pricing, global food demand and energy prices. </p>
<p>We modelled the economic potential for <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Major-initiatives/Australian-National-Outlook/National-Outlook-publications/Key-science-papers/Land-use-and-sustainability">land use change and its impacts in over 600 scenarios</a> (<a href="https://data.csiro.au/dap/landingpage?pid=csiro:15111&v=1&d=true">full data available here</a>), combining a suite of global outlooks and national policy options. </p>
<p>A carbon price, which enables landholders to make money from storing carbon in trees and soils (often much more money than from farming), may <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Major-initiatives/Australian-National-Outlook/National-Outlook-publications/Key-science-papers/Potential-carbon-sequestration">increase pressure to shift farmland to restored forests</a>.</p>
<p>Who knows? A pay rise while watching trees grow could be an attractive proposition for our ageing farmers. <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2874.html">Complementary biodiversity payments</a> could also help arrest declines in wildlife and help it adapt to climate change.</p>
<p>If we redouble our focus on productivity, by 2050 agriculture will produce more than today, even as farmland contracts. The least productive areas are less able to compete with reforestation and other new land uses, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X15300482">leaving the most efficient agricultural land in production</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13020/abstract">But trade-offs</a> are likely. Trees use a lot more water than crops and pasture, so we will need to think carefully about managing water resources.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Economic potential for land use change and sustainability impacts from 2013 to 2050 under national global environmental and economic conditions consistent with 2°C warming by 2100.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australians care about their land and are more aware than ever about what is happening to it. While we can have some control over the future of our land, and we do exercise this control in certain circumstances (such as urban planning), our long-term approach to rural land has been to let environmental and economic forces play out and let the invisible hand of economics determine what will be.</p>
<p>Given the pace at which change can happen, a smarter approach will be to start the conversation, work out what it is we want from our land, and put the policies and institutions in place to get us there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Bryan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Growing population, growing demand for food, climate change: Australia’s rural lands are facing a number of pressures. So how can we sustainably use them in the future?Brett Bryan, Principal Research Scientist, Environmental-economic integration, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/505192015-11-13T00:58:50Z2015-11-13T00:58:50ZAustralia’s climate targets still out of reach after second emissions auction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101773/original/image-20151113-12409-1hr2azl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia will struggle to make real emissions reductions without making structural change away from coal in the energy sector. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel L Smith / Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The government’s Clean Energy Regulator yesterday announced the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Auctions-results/November-2015">results</a> of the second “reverse auction”. It spent A$557 million to buy emissions cuts of some 45 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>Australia needs to cut its CO₂ emissions by 236 million tonnes to meet its current 2020 mitigation target of -5% below 2000 levels. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/direct-action-plan">Direct Action Plan</a> and its Emissions Reduction Fund (<a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">ERF</a>) is the Turnbull government’s major program for doing so.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done-40761">first auction</a>, in April this year, spent A$660 million for 47.3 million tonnes.</p>
<p>So far, then, almost half of the A$2.55 billion allocated to the ERF has been used and some 92.8 million tonnes of emissions reduction “bought” at an average rate of almost A$13.12 per tonne of CO₂. The ERF will also form part of efforts to achieve Australia’s <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf">2030 climate target</a>. </p>
<p>The latest round of UN climate negotiations begins in Paris in three weeks’ time. These talks aim to produce tougher national greenhouse targets for the decade to 2030. Ironically, the focus on Paris is drawing attention away from the urgency of emissions cuts that need to be delivered beforehand.</p>
<p>In Australia, the Paris talks encourage us to accept as given our 2020 target of -5% below 2000 emissions levels, although it is among the weakest of national mitigation efforts for that period. </p>
<p>They encourage us to ignore the fact that - according to criteria accepted by both Labor and Coalitions governments and now met because of the rising ambitions and efforts of major emitters elsewhere - Australia’s target should have increased to <a href="https://theconversation.com/steep-emissions-cuts-needed-or-well-blow-australias-carbon-budget-climate-authority-23425">-15% by 2020</a>.</p>
<p>It is against this second benchmark that the Turnbull government’s efforts should now be measured.</p>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>Assuming all the emissions reductions contracted in these auctions are delivered, and the price per tonne of carbon remains the same for future sales, then the A$1.89 billion remaining in the ERF’s coffers will buy around another 101 million tonnes of emissions.</p>
<p>All up then, the total emissions reduction bought by the ERF will be around 193 million tonnes of CO₂. While this is 10 million tonnes better than predicted after the first auction this outcome remains 44 million tonnes (or about 19%) short of Australia’s -5% target – and much more for the -15% goal.</p>
<p>But that’s not the whole story. Some 275 projects will deliver their contracted emissions reductions over different periods – a few in a year, some over three, a few over five, many over seven, and most over ten years… by 2025.</p>
<p>Looking at the duration of contracts, it appears that only 45% (by volume) of this mitigation effort will contribute to the 2020 target. The rest will be occur after 2020.</p>
<p>In other words, only 51 million tonnes of emissions will be have been cut by 2020, leaving Australia 85 million tonnes (or 36% of the total) short of its -5% target and at least treble that amount for a -15% goal.</p>
<h2>Structural change needed</h2>
<p>The vast bulk of the contracts agreed in both the first and second auctions have re-funded emissions reduction schemes established well before the Direct Action Plan was conceived. As was the case for the first auction, most of the projects (by volume of emissions) involve “forest protection”. These rural projects generate carbon credits by paying to halt the destruction of native vegetation (so-called “avoided deforestation”). Such reductions could be achieved at no cost through regulatory intervention.</p>
<p>Most people paying superficial attention to the workings of the ERF would expect public money to be spent on creating structural change, by moving our industries onto renewable energy sources, for instance, rather than on paying rent to rural landowners to avoid activities that may release emissions in the future. Useful though these projects are, one wonders whether they should constitute the core and bulk of Australia’s flagship climate policy.</p>
<p>If the average price of carbon rises in subsequent auctions – and if Australian energy use and emissions continue to grow – the overall shortfall will increase still further. Recent evidence suggests that emissions from stationary electricity production and energy <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/coalfired-plants-lead-extreme-competition-lifting-emissions-20151112-gkx921.html">have increased</a> by some 3% since the removal of the carbon price last year.</p>
<p>It is notable that – again - no major emitters in the energy and resource sectors were among the successful bidders. In other words, the major sectors involved in producing Australia’s emissions are not engaged by this scheme.</p>
<p>The ERF’s reverse auction approach seems incapable of driving an economic and cultural transition to renewable energy or of encouraging substantial mitigation by major industrial emitters. It is not helping Australia work “more agilely, more innovatively”, as Prime Minister Turnbull has <a href="http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/Ministry">put it</a>, in this case to tackle climate change.</p>
<p>Using this mechanism Australia won’t meet, let alone exceed, even its very weak 2020 reduction target. The ERF would need well over A$3 billion to buy all the emissions needed for that goal.</p>
<p>And it is equally clear that this approach is doing nothing to prepare Australia for the 2030 target it is taking to Paris, of -26 to -28% below 2005 levels. Nor for the much more ambitious targets required to avert dangerous climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest emissions auction closes the gap to Australia’s climate target, but still leaves work to be done.Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, School of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/497542015-10-29T01:23:06Z2015-10-29T01:23:06ZAustralia’s plantation boom has gone bust, so let’s make them carbon farms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99927/original/image-20151028-21086-1cozobl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia has around a million hectares of plantations, much of them no longer commercially viable.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACSIRO_ScienceImage_644_Pasture_and_Plantation_Comparison_for_Soil_Changes.jpg">CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the rolling hills of Victoria’s Strzelecki Ranges, among paddocks of pasture and potatoes, stands a simple steel monument to the world’s tallest tree. The tree itself, which stood a mighty 115 m tall, was chopped down in the 1880s so that a registered surveyor could measure it.</p>
<p>Almost a century and a half later, Australia’s attitude to its forests is seemingly no less perverse. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99926/original/image-20151028-21095-1lxzvk4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not chopping it down might have been a more fitting tribute.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Not far north of where the tree once stood is the Latrobe Valley, dominated by some of Australia’s most carbon-intensive coalmines and power stations. Covering much of the surrounding hills are timber plantations, which store tonnes of carbon. Plantations can be used to soak up emissions – except the current rules don’t officially recognise this.</p>
<p>Intensive plantations don’t count as carbon sinks under Australia’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/carbon-farming-initiative-project-transition">carbon farming rules</a>. The boom that led to the creation of almost a million hectares of new plantation timber died with the global financial crisis - but with a bit of smart thinking these could be put to use as carbon farms, rather than being allowed to die off and returned to pasture. </p>
<h2>Boom and bust</h2>
<p>The see-sawing fortunes of Australian forestry have largely been driven by government policy. The 1990s saw major policy reforms, which spawned protests (including log trucks <a href="http://tlf.dlr.det.nsw.edu.au/learningobjects/Content/R10817/object/r3031.html">blockading the national parliament</a>) and ultimately resulted in a widespread expansion of timber plantations. </p>
<p>The area of eucalyptus plantations grew from almost nothing in 1998 to about 1 million hectares by 2008, spurred by a massive influx of finance encouraged by the <a href="https://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2004C00970">Managed Investments Act (1998)</a>, which turned plantations into tax-effective investments.</p>
<p>But then came the global financial crisis, which saw Managed Investment Scheme (MIS) companies like Timbercorp and Great Southern Plantations go bust. Shareholders and investors lost out, but the plantations themselves were in the ground. </p>
<p>Since then, plantation ownership has been <a href="http://www.newforests.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/New-Forests-MIS-Review.pdf">consolidated</a> into the hands of a few dominant players such as <a href="https://www.newforests.com.au/">NewForests</a>, which acquired more than 700,000 ha, and <a href="http://www.gfplp.com/">Global Forest Partners</a> (more than 150,000 ha). </p>
<h2>An expensive experiment</h2>
<p>Some MIS plantations were poorly sited, in terms of climate and soils, used inappropriate species, or suffered pest or disease problems. Some have been written off, bulldozed and returned to pasture. Many more are likely to be. </p>
<p>Current estimates suggest that a third of the eucalyptus plantations are uneconomic with harvesting unlikely, another third will probably be harvested but are unlikely to be replanted. The rest will form Australia’s future hardwood estate. In this sense it has been a massive and expensive experiment.</p>
<p>This story shows the power of financial incentives, but reflects the problem of using tax inducements to fund an industry. For investors, tax deductions became the primary goal, rather than the quality of the investment.</p>
<p>The plantations’ boom and bust, with its focus on using fast money for fast-growing eucalypts, mostly for pulpwood, has obscured other important opportunities.</p>
<p>First, it shifted the focus away from the opportunities of <a href="http://www.agroforestry.net.au">integrating forestry into farming systems</a>.</p>
<p>Second, the reputation of Australian forestry and forestry investments has almost certainly suffered.</p>
<p>Third, it may have blinded us to the potential of using Australia’s rich diversity of tree species for other purposes. Australia’s genetic gifts to the world include trees that grow prolifically in poor soils, can withstand fire and drought, store carbon, and produce hard, strong, richly coloured timbers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/100075/original/image-20151029-21081-afbbm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A treasure trove for carbon farmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACSIRO_ScienceImage_714_Eucalyptus_Globulus_Plantation_Australia.jpg">T. Grove/CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Already planted across millions of hectares throughout the world, Australia’s eucalypts, acacias and casuarinas offer a genetic treasure trove for carbon farming. </p>
<p>With much to learn about Australia’s diverse and productive flora – including how to farm it for carbon – it seems perverse that investment in Australian forestry research and education is now declining. </p>
<h2>Carbon crops</h2>
<p>Carbon markets and emerging technologies could fundamentally alter the way we conceive of trees as crops. </p>
<p>With a million hectares of eucalyptus plantation approaching maturity, there is almost certainly an active search for commercial markets for the standing timber - as wood fibre, for bioenergy fuel, or for non-wood products. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, large areas are likely to be reconverted to pasture, resulting in less carbon being stored in these landscapes. But there’s another, even simpler option for what to do with these plantations.</p>
<p>Perhaps it is time to reconsider whether to credit the carbon captured by these trees, given that their plantings were sponsored by our taxes. Changes to the carbon farming rules might make these and other multi-use plantations more viable.</p>
<p>The Australian Forest Industry estimates that Australia’s Kyoto-compliant forestry plantations (those established on cleared land since 1990) offset about 4.5% of Australia’s total emissions, but these are not credited under Australia’s <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/submissions/2014/cfi-review/submission-09-v2.pdf">Carbon Farming Initiative</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/review1_0.pdf">no approved CFI methodologies</a> for plantations that sequester carbon and produce commercial timbers, but if there were, multipurpose plantations could form a key plank of Australia’s Direct Action carbon abatement policy. </p>
<p>In addition to carbon, there is potential for plantings that deliver economic development and ecological benefits in terms of restoring landscapes. But new models of plantations are needed, supported with different policy setting that drive their development. </p>
<p>Any large-scale bio-energy or carbon plantings in the future need to heed the lessons from Australia’s plantation boom and bust. In emerging carbon-constrained economies, how we define resources in rural landscapes, including carbon credits, will literally shape our future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Alexandra received research funding from the Rural Industries Research and Development to research farm forestry and plantation policies in the late 1990's and has maintained an interest in impacts of policies on how landscapes and plantations are managed since.</span></em></p>The GFC killed off Australia’s timber plantation boom, leaving behind a million hectares of timber. But by recognising the carbon value in these trees, a new industry could grow in place of the old.Jason Alexandra, Honorary Fellow, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/431802015-06-12T02:58:43Z2015-06-12T02:58:43ZBonn climate summit brings us slowly closer to a global deal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84788/original/image-20150612-11413-1scori4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The latest climate talks in Bonn, Germany, unexpectedly agreed to a mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/9083164278/">CIFOR/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The mid-year <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/governments-shift-gear-toward-delivery-of-new-universal-climate-agreement/">Bonn climate negotiations</a> in Germany have unexpectedly <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/1605/pr20141506_sb40_close.pdf">agreed a mechanism</a> to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) after 10 years of effort. It lays the groundwork to get assistance to countries to help them save forests and reduce potential greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>The negotiations represent another step on the road to a potential global agreement at the major summit in Paris at the end of the year. </p>
<p>What progress is being made? What are the challenging issues that may end up being a focus of negotiations in Paris? What does the roadmap from here look like?</p>
<p>A draft agreement text has been developed that is still way too long and with far too many disagreements. The two co-chairs of the process, Ahmed Djoghlaf of Algeria and Daniel Reifsnyder of the US, have been authorised to refine this for further work by the parties. </p>
<p>The draft includes all the elements for a global agreement - mitigation of emissions, assistance for dealing with the impacts of climate change, stimulating new technologies and low carbon development, and aspirations for the needed finance to make this all happen. However the negotiating process remains slow with many disagreements remains.</p>
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<h2>G7 commitment builds momentum</h2>
<p>The prospects for Paris and the negotiations were given considerable momentum by the G7 meeting of industrialised countries that occurred at the same time. The G7 issued a <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/g7-schloss-elmau-declaration/">final communique </a> which emphasised that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required, with a decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century. They also said they would continue efforts to provide US$100 billion a year by 2020 to support developing countries’ own climate actions.</p>
<p>Crucial emerging issues that may be on the table in Paris include how to lift the emissions-reduction ambition of countries’ commitments before and after 2020, so that the goal of keeping global warming below 2C is achieved. In November an assessment will be undertaken of the aggregate emission reductions of the commitments of all countries. It is highly likely to show a significant gap between the commitments and this goal.</p>
<p>The United Nations Environment Program released a <a href="http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=26827&ArticleID=35194&l=en">report</a> this week showing that the efforts of cities, states and businesses could add substantial emissions-reduction effort, in the order of 20% of the efforts of national governments around the world.</p>
<p>Adequate public and private-sector finance still remains a challenge. The G7’s call for decarbonisation of the global economy sometime this century does not yet have majority support in the negotiations but is viewed as very important by some in business to send a long term investor signal and by civil society.</p>
<h2>Laggards or leaders?</h2>
<p>There are different views about whether countries should be putting new commitments on the table every five or 10 years. With the pace of technology change and the extent of the challenge facing the world, the shorter cycle has the attraction of allowing more flexibility in the ratcheting up of effort over the years.</p>
<p>All 196 countries in these negotiations are important in this consent decision making process. However the positioning of the US and China, and Brazil and India is crucial. At the same time, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-in-the-spotlight-at-climate-talks-for-all-the-wrong-reasons-42882">Australia</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-climate-target-is-a-smokescreen-and-full-of-loopholes-42167">Canada</a> risk being laggards and are coming under increasing scrutiny from the major powers (and their major trading partners).</p>
<p>There are at least three more negotiation sessions planned before the main event in Paris. The French President of the “Conference of Paris” conference parties is asking political leaders to hold several consultations to narrow down and start to find solutions to the tougher political issues behind any agreement.</p>
<p>The negotiations are frustratingly slow. However at Bonn they seemed to be starting to move firmly towards a new global climate agreement being struck in Paris. As always, the devil is in the detail. How much ambition, finance, energy, and teeth and we’ll see in an ultimate Paris agreement rests on the work to be done and goodwill between now and then.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/43180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Henry has previously been the CEO of the Australian Conservation Foundation.
</span></em></p>The mid year Bonn negotiations for the proposed new global agreement to tackle climate change have just concluded. They will be finalised at the end of the year in Paris. What progress is being made? What are the challenging issues that may end up being a focus of negotiations in Paris? What does the roadmap from here look like?Don Henry, Public Policy Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/407282015-04-24T04:23:27Z2015-04-24T04:23:27ZInfographic: emissions reduction auction results at a glance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79223/original/image-20150424-14568-lbkwc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C7%2C1014%2C646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Growth industry: forestry will account for much of the carbon reductions under the first round of Emissions Reduction Fund contracts.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results of the government’s first <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-todays-direct-action-reverse-auction-work-40152">reverse auction</a> of carbon-cutting projects have been released. Where is the money going?</p>
<p>The government will spend A$660 million of its A$2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund on contracts set to reduce emissions by some 47 million tonnes, more than half of it in “carbon farming” projects to lock up carbon in vegetation.</p>
<p>Federal environment minister Greg Hunt <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-23/government-buys-47m-tonnes-of-carbon-abatement-in-erf-auction/6415532">described the outcome</a> as a “stunning result” for Australia, pointing out that the average price of A$13.95 per tonne of carbon is cheaper than the previous government’s carbon pricing scheme.</p>
<p>But critics have pointed to the lack of involvement so far from industry sectors that were covered by the previous carbon tax, and the fact that the new scheme is paid for by taxpayers rather than the businesses creating the pollution.</p>
<p>Here are the numbers:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=2943&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=2943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=2943&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=3699&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=3699&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79215/original/image-20150424-25563-y6ghno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=3699&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Review: Anita Talberg, Australian German College of Climate and Energy Transitions, University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p>The Emissions Reduction Fund was legislated as an amendment to the existing Carbon Farming Initiative. It effectively expanded and tweaked the carbon farming scheme to include some projects outside the land sector. As Hunt <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2Fb7c3903c-728e-40bc-91f4-728ffe55978d%2F0021%22">explained</a> when introducing the legislation to Parliament: “This bill will use positive incentives to reduce emissions, unlock economic activity, boost energy efficiency and improve agricultural productivity.” </p>
<p>This first auction has been effective in capturing the low end of the <a href="http://www.climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_lcgp_australia_summary_mar2010.pdf">marginal abatement cost curve</a> without dipping below the zero net-cost line (the point beyond which projects would “pay for themselves”, and therefore shouldn’t in theory be publicly funded). </p>
<p>However, as the final bar graph in this infographic shows, more than half of the purchased abatement is in the form of vegetation sequestration. So what this first auction has failed to do is unlock positive longer-term changes in energy efficiency, especially in the most carbon-intensive industries. </p>
<p>In essence, the land sector is offsetting emissions from the rest of the economy and delaying any real change to emissions intensity.</p>
<p>As the infographic’s carbon abatement task chart shows, there is still work to be done to meet Australia’s 2020 target. And in fact it may be more than is shown in that figure. The first projects purchased through the Emissions Reduction Fund have varying time frames, but many are between 7 and 10 years. Yet less than 6 years remain to meet our 2020 target. </p>
<p>Some of that abatement purchased through the Emissions Reduction Fund (the orange section in the graph) will occur after the 2020 deadline and may not count towards Australia’s international commitment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The first round of contracts for Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund have been awarded, at an average price of just under A$14 a tonne. How do the numbers stack up, and what projects are the big winners?James Whitmore, Deputy Editor: Arts + Culture, The ConversationMichael Hopkin, Deputy Chief of Staff, The ConversationEmil Jeyaratnam, Data + Interactives Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393672015-04-20T04:52:35Z2015-04-20T04:52:35ZIndonesia’s vast mangroves are a treasure worth saving<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78536/original/image-20150420-3253-ox9i2a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mangroves are still be cleared for aquaculture expansion. Since 1989, 6600 hectares of Tanjung Panjang Nature Reserve’s original 13,300 ha of mangroves have been converted.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iona Soulsby</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Which of the world’s great forests store the most carbon per hectare? The dense tropical rainforests of the Amazon, Borneo, the Congo or Papua New Guinea? The vast northern forests of Canada and Siberia, or the towering mountain ash forests of Victoria and Tasmania?</p>
<p>None of the above.</p>
<p>In fact (counting carbon stored in soils), mangrove forests store the most carbon per hectare.</p>
<p>Mangrove forests are amazingly tough, versatile and productive. They play a critical role in the feeding and breeding cycles of many fish and other aquatic species, and fish catches are much higher close to intact mangrove communities. They provide valuable timber and many other forest products. Recent cyclones have reminded us yet again that coastlines with intact mangroves are much more resilient.</p>
<h2>The mangroves are disappearing</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, the world is <a href="http://www.zsl.org/science/whats-on/turning-the-tide-on-mangrove-loss">losing mangroves</a> at a depressing rate, down from 19.8 million hectares in 1980 to 15 million hectares in 2005. Although rates of loss have halved from around 2% per year in the 1980s, the current rate of loss would see most of the world’s mangroves gone by the end of this century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77322/original/image-20150408-18075-1dm4efy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global change in mangrove extent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">FAO 2007</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Achieving no net loss of mangroves worldwide would require the successful restoration of approximately 150,000 hectares per year, unless all major losses of mangroves ceased. Increasing the total area of mangroves worldwide back towards their original extent would require an <a href="http://mangroverestoration.com/">even larger effort</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77323/original/image-20150408-18083-odf73l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mangroves of Indonesian Papua are the most productive in the world. Home to the Kamoro people, who have stewarded the forests of their ancestors through the centuries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robert Hewatt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Indonesia has the most to lose</h2>
<p>Indonesia is blessed with the largest area of mangrove forests in the world. Unfortunately, it also suffers from the world’s fastest rates of mangrove destruction.</p>
<p>Mangroves are being <a href="http://mangroveactionproject.org/mangrove-loss/#more-406">destroyed by conversion</a> to agriculture, aquaculture, tourism, urban development and over-exploitation. Indonesia’s original endowment of 4.2 million hectares of mangroves has been reduced to less than 2.4 million hectares, with at least 60% of this loss due to <a href="http://news.mongabay.com/2010/0323-hance_mangroves.html">conversion to aquaculture</a>. More than one third of Indonesia’s mangroves were lost from 1980 to 2000, faster than the rate of loss loss of inland tropical forests and coral reefs.</p>
<p>The majority of mangrove forests in Indonesia have no form of national protection. Even forests with the highest degree of protection on paper, such as the Tanjung Panjang Nature Reserve in Gorontalo Province saw half of its mangrove forests converted to aquaculture between 1989 and 2010. </p>
<p>In 2012 a National Mangrove Strategy was developed, which mandates that mangrove management take place in coordination with stakeholder bodies within Indonesia, but the majority of these regional working groups meet only for formalities’ sake.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77343/original/image-20150408-18086-msiewk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mahakam Delta. Black = remaining mangrove; Grey = Fish Ponds, representing 82,500 ha of an original 110,000 ha of deltaic mangroves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sidik - Mulawarman University, 2007</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indonesian government records show 660,000 hectares of brackish water aquaculture ponds (called Tambak) in ex-mangrove areas, and there are <a href="http://blog.cifor.org/21278/mangrove-conference-to-focus-on-improving-coastal-livelihoods#.VQ-vaGYZdK4">conflicting accounts of strategies to expand this to up to 2.9 million hectares</a>. These are largely <a href="http://www.enaca.org/publications/magazine/2013/aquaculture-asia-april-june-2013-web.pdf">shallow ponds of low productivity</a>, managed extensively with heavy use of external inputs (pesticides, industrial feed and fertilizer) and plagued by disease and high mortality of fish.</p>
<p>The great tragedy is that some of the most valuable forests in the world are being converted to a relatively low value and unsustainable land use with little benefit for local communities. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77342/original/image-20150408-18032-2j88x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mahakam Delta, Kalimantan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth, Ben Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Indonesian Ministry of Fisheries wants to improve management and productivity of these ponds where possible, and to rehabilitate disused and unproductive areas to mangroves in partnership with the Ministry of Forestry and Environment, the National Mangrove Coordination Team and local stakeholders.</p>
<p>This Indonesian government commitment is very encouraging. We believe there is enormous scope to reverse the loss of mangrove forests in Indonesia and that this can be a great example for other developing countries. </p>
<h2>Restoring lost mangroves is tricky, but possible</h2>
<p>However, to date most attempts to restore mangroves in Indonesia (and elsewhere) have failed. The majority of attempts (over 90%) simply jab seedlings of one mangrove genus (Rhizophora) into inappropriate habitats - in mud flats below mean sea level - where mangroves do not grow.</p>
<p>Typically, attempts at mangrove restoration fail for two reasons: </p>
<ol>
<li> Land tenure and ownership issues make it difficult to put mangroves back where they belong.<br></li>
<li> Poor understanding of the ecological requirements of mangroves, and the ecological and water processes that promote their establishment and early growth.</li>
</ol>
<p>One of us (Robin Lewis) pioneered a mangrove restoration technique in Florida called <a href="http://www.mangroverestoration.com/">Ecological Mangrove Rehabilitation</a> (EMR). This method shows promise at even larger scales as a cost-effective method to restore or rehabilitate whole mangrove communities as resilient and productive ecosystems. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77325/original/image-20150408-18063-1wt9fpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Before (2004 above) and After (2011 below) Community Based Ecological Mangrove Restoration in Tiwoho Village, Bunaken National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77326/original/image-20150408-18044-1bex5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With support from the World Resource Institute and the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, involving researchers from <a href="http://www.cifor.org/">Bogor</a>, <a href="http://riel.cdu.edu.au/blog/2013/04/developing-blue-carbon-partnerships-indonesia">Darwin</a>, <a href="http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/expertise-services/Chair-groups/Animal-Sciences/Aquaculture-and-Fisheries.htm">Wageningen</a> and <a href="http://www.themangrovelab.com/">Singapore</a>, we are now assessing the potential for restoration in 8 large-scale degraded and converted mangrove forests ranging from 6,600 hectares (Tanjung Panjang, Gorontalo) to 82,500 ha (Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan).</p>
<p>While we should always be wary about transplanting project ideas from one country to another, we believe there are lessons to be learned from very encouraging US examples of mangrove ecosystem repair on this scale. </p>
<h2>Restoring mangroves works</h2>
<p>In Florida in the 1960s, in a misguided effort at mosquito control, 16,200 hectares of saltmarshes and mangroves were impounded and flooded intentionally. This damaged fisheries, wildlife and other ecosystem services. </p>
<p>By 2000, over 10,000 hectares of these mosquito control impoundments had been hydrologically repaired, through strategic breaching of dike walls, culvert placement and re-grading to a natural surface elevation. This enabled mangrove communities to re-establish.</p>
<p>The ecological mangrove restoration method is based on relatively simple principles around restoring hydrological connectivity and allowing the natural tidal processes to assist mangrove propagules to establish and spread. But implementing these principles in practice is complicated. Densely populated and contested coastal landscapes where people are struggling to make a living and feed their families, and where land ownership and control is often far from clear cut, do not lend themselves to simple prescriptions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=856&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=856&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=856&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1076&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1076&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77327/original/image-20150408-18070-186g810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1076&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Before (2003) and After (2012) Google Earth images of Ecological Mangrove Restoration in Tiwoho Village, Bunaken National Park, North Sulawesi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth and Ben Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Indonesia, <a href="http://www.blue-forests.org">Blue Forests</a> and the <a href="http://mangroveactionproject.org/about-us/">Mangrove Action Project</a> have refined this method into a community-based approach. They involve local communities (including Tambak farmers) in planning, implementing and monitoring the mangrove restoration projects, parallel development of sustainable livelihoods options, and developing collaborative management of re-established mangrove ecosystems. These activities are supported and complemented by Fish Farmer Field Schools that assist tambak farmers with more sustainable options for their tambak ponds, and with mangrove restoration on disused ponds.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77345/original/image-20150408-18083-evsf1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tanakeke Islanders hand digging 1.5 km of tidal creeks in disused shrimp ponds to restore natural hydrology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yusran Nurdin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77346/original/image-20150408-18032-1c66om5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mangrove restoration field school - understanding the lower limits of mangrove growth amidst the breathing roots (pneumatophores) of a Sonneratia alba. Monitoring the height of the pneumataphores also allows villagers to keep track of sea level rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rio Ahmad</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jumping from small-scale to big picture</h2>
<p>Our challenge now is to see if we can combine the social insights from our small-scale work in Indonesia with the engineering innovations from large-scale restoration practices in the US and elsewhere. This would substantially increase the speed and extent of mangrove forest rehabilitation and restoration.</p>
<p>Restoring mangrove forests would deliver significant benefits in reducing net greenhouse gas emissions, improving food security and livelihoods of coastal communities, increasing resilience in the face of sea level rise and extreme weather events, and improving habitat for many vulnerable species along extremely biodiverse and beautiful tropical coastlines.</p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored by <a href="http://www.royrlewis3.com/">Robin Lewis</a>, US mangrove expert and pioneer of <a href="http://www.mangroverestoration.com/">restoring mangroves</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Campbell is the Director of CDU's Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, which is developing proposals for large-scale mangrove restoration and rehabilitation in Indonesia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Brown leads Blue Forests, a non-profit, environmental NGO in Indonesia. He currently receives funding from USAID and World Resources Institute. He is also currently a member of the IUCN Mangrove Specialist Group - solely on a volunteer basis.</span></em></p>Mangroves, hectare for hectare, store more carbon than any other forests. But they are also among the most threatened. New projects in Indonesia show how mangroves might be restored.Andrew Campbell, Director, Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityBenjamin Brown, PhD candidate, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/400882015-04-14T20:21:59Z2015-04-14T20:21:59ZFarming carbon can be a win for wildlife, if the price is right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77888/original/image-20150414-24615-1h5jjh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Koalas are one of the threatened species that could benefit from carbon farming. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/neonman/4267153123">christopher charles/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change and the loss of biodiversity are two of the greatest environmental issues of our time. Is it possible to address both of those problems at once?</p>
<p>In Australia, farmers and landholders will this week be able to apply for payments through the Federal government’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">A$2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund</a>. Bidders can request funding for projects that reduce emissions using agreed <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/methods">methods</a>, which include approaches relevant to the transport, waste and mining sectors, as well as the land sector: for example, by managing or restoring forests. </p>
<p>Forests hold carbon in vegetation and soils and provide important habitat for native wildlife. Restoring forests in areas where they have been cleared in the past could be good for the climate, good for biodiversity, and generate additional income for landholders.</p>
<p>How well the Emissions Reduction Fund can achieve these benefits will depend on three things: the right approach, the right price, and the right location. </p>
<h2>Farming carbon</h2>
<p>There are a range of approaches available for restoring forests, and they vary in how quickly carbon can be sequestered, cost, and suitability for wildlife.</p>
<p>For example, fast-growing monocultures such as blue gum plantations can sequester carbon very rapidly, but don’t provide ideal habitat for wildlife. Planting a diversity of native trees and shrubs using an approach called <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/cfi/publications/factsheet-environmental-plantings-native-trees">environmental plantings</a> is far more wildlife-friendly, but the costs are higher, and carbon is not stored as quickly. </p>
<p>A third possible approach is to <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/cfi/methodologies/determinations/native-forest-managed-growth">assist the natural regeneration of vegetation</a>. This can be done by fencing off cattle or by ceasing on-farm practises such as burning or disturbance with machinery. Assisted natural regeneration is the cheapest of these three possible methods, and is also good for biodiversity: our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901115000222">recent paper</a> found that it could be a great option for restoring forests in agricultural landscapes across Queensland and northern New South Wales. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77861/original/image-20150414-14533-fkmez2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brigalow woodlands allowed to regrow for 3-10 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Dwyer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77862/original/image-20150414-14550-1bcyr6d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regenerated brigalow woodlands after 50 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Dwyer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Location, location, location</h2>
<p>Across Australia, there a number of places where growing carbon could be a more profitable option than the current land use. Some of these places are more important for biodiversity than others.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77881/original/image-20150414-24615-kee9on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mulga lands of western Queensland may be worth more as carbon farms than other uses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Don Butler</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we’re interested in getting some wins for biodiversity while growing carbon forests, we need to think carefully about the possible opportunities and trade-offs, as the best places for sequestering carbon are not always the most beneficial for biodiversity, and vice versa. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/02/23/biosci.biv008.abstract">our recent paper</a>, we found that it is possible to identify where growing forests could provide win-wins for both carbon and biodiversity. </p>
<p>For example, the top 25% of priority areas for environmental plantings could sequester 132 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent annually, which is almost <a href="http://theconversation.com/visualising-australias-carbon-emissions-23816">a quarter of Australia’s annual emissions</a> (excluding those caused by land-use change).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77893/original/image-20150414-24642-1uoyj4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Relative priority areas for restoring 139 threatened ecosystems to 30% of original extent using environmental plantings, where carbon is stored at $20/tonne. Pink areas are higher priority, green is lower priority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/65/4/372</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These high-priority areas for environmental plantings could restore some of the most threatened ecosystems in Australia. There are 139 ecosystem types across the country that have lost more than 70% of their original extent. If it were possible to restore these ecosystems up to 30% of their original extent, they will have a better chance of surviving in the long term.</p>
<p>Restoring parts of the landscape with these ecosystems is a high priority for biodiversity – not only are the ecosystems rare, but many of the birds and animals that depend on these ecosystems are those that are most threatened. For example the <a href="http://www.gpem.uq.edu.au/docs/Brigalow/ConservingBrigalowLandscapesl.pdf">brigalow woodlands</a> of south east Queensland, of which less than 10% remain, are home to nationally threatened <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/koala">koalas</a> and a host of other wildlife. </p>
<h2>The right price</h2>
<p>It will generally be more expensive to grow carbon forests that also provide benefits for biodiversity. This is because the places most profitable for land uses such as agriculture are often where the most threatened species and ecosystems are located. </p>
<p>In our analysis, we found that with a price on carbon equivalent to A$5 per tonne, it would not be profitable to restore threatened ecosystems up to 30% of their original extent. This means that without additional funding from another source, there is limited opportunity to achieve wins for biodiversity if the price on carbon is low.</p>
<p>However, a higher price of A$20 per tonne, reflecting Australia’s 2011-2013 carbon price, could allow up to half of the heavily cleared vegetation types to be restored up to 30% without any additional funding for biodiversity itself. At this A$20 price, we also found that it made more economic sense to farm carbon than the existing land use, in over <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901115000222">1.2 million hectares in Queensland</a>. </p>
<p>This week’s Emissions Reduction Fund auction will be a good first test of how the current approach to carbon farming can provide the dual benefit of restoring habitat for native wildlife and addressing climate change. Our analysis shows that Australia’s climate policies could have a very significant impact on biodiversity - if we think carefully about the right approach, price, and location.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan Evans is funded by an Australian Postgraduate Award and a CSIRO top-up scholarship.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Renwick is funded through the University of Queensland ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions and the National Environmental Research Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josie Carwardine and Tara Martin do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With bids open today for the government’s Emissions Reduction Fund, experts explain how storing carbon can be a win for wildlife too.Megan C Evans, PhD Candidate in Environmental Policy & Economics, Australian National UniversityAnna Renwick, Research ecologist, The University of QueenslandJosie Carwardine, Research Scientist, Ecosystem Sciences, CSIROTara Martin, Senior Research Scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/299872014-08-06T20:54:49Z2014-08-06T20:54:49ZWe mustn’t waste water while taking action on climate change<p>Should we pick and choose our climate strategies based on how water-wise they are?</p>
<p>As our <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1156-6">new research</a> published in <em>Climatic Change</em> shows, some activities aimed at tackling greenhouse emissions can also consume large amounts of water. In a water-poor country like Australia, this can make a real difference in the relative economic attractiveness of these strategies.</p>
<p>In particular, wide-scale planting of trees to store carbon can be very water-intensive, and we should therefore consider carefully where we do it.</p>
<p>However, there is good news too. Reducing our electricity demand through energy efficiency and shifting to renewable sources can not only reduce our carbon footprint, but also our water footprint too. Burning coal for electricity consumes water, so if we can reduce this demand and shift to more sustainable technology, more water may become available for the environment and other uses.</p>
<h2>The water costs of carbon farming</h2>
<p>Planting trees is a major plank of Australia’s climate policy, to be delivered by programs such as the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/land/green-army">Green Army</a> and the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/land/20-million-trees">20 Million Trees</a> initiative. </p>
<p>Although 20 million trees sounds like a lot, at 1000 trees per hectare it only adds up to about 20,000 hectares. But elsewhere there are <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Ecosystem-Sciences/Opportunities-Carbon-Forestry.aspx">millions of hectares</a> that could potentially be planted by the carbon forestry industry.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/climatechange/cfi">Carbon Farming Initiative</a>, which allows land owners to earn credit for storing carbon in trees and soils, recognises the water impact of forests as a potential issue, and has <a href="http://nwc.gov.au/our-work/assessments/cfi">regulations in place</a> to manage it. These include a list of eligible planting zones, and limits to tree planting in areas that receive enough rainfall to generate water runoff (at least 600 mm a year), which is aimed at stopping trees from sucking up water from river catchments.</p>
<p>But there are several loopholes in the regulations, and the <a href="http://nwc.gov.au">National Water Commission</a>, which reviews the planting zones each year, will be <a href="http://nwc.gov.au/organisation/closure-in-2014">abolished in December</a>.</p>
<p>Another way to manage the impact of trees on water is to issue licences for commercial forestry, as is happening in South Australia. While this policy <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-29/peak-forestry-body-rejects-science-behind-water-plan/5632620">has its opponents</a>, it makes sense that <a href="http://theconversation.com/failing-to-account-for-water-lets-business-down-29841">water use is accounted for</a> and that users pay for the water they consume.</p>
<p>Trees can provide many other benefits, such as creating animal habitat, slowing erosion, reducing salinity, and moderating flooding. We shouldn’t avoid planting trees as a climate strategy, but it needs to be carefully planned on a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/cleanenergyfuture/regional-fund">region-by-region basis</a> across Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55843/original/4mszkj8j-1407305692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Care needs to be taken not to harm river catchments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AWA_dry_dam.jpg">Bram Souffrou/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can we do to lessen the impact?</h2>
<p>Apart from carefully planning where trees are planted, there are some technology choices that can reduce the water footprint of clean energy.</p>
<p>Thermal power stations use water to generate steam and to cool the heat generated in electricity production. On average, Australian coal-fired power plants consume about <a href="http://archive.nwc.gov.au/library/waterlines/18">1.5 million litres of water</a> for each gigawatt hour of electricity production. The five power stations in Victoria’s Latrobe valley use more than 100 gigalitres of water each year - around 300 million litres every day. The potential adoption of <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-bit-of-concentration-solar-thermal-could-power-your-town-2005">solar thermal</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/geothermal-energy">geothermal energy</a> in drier areas of the continent could also lead to excessive water demands.</p>
<p>There are several other options for cooling thermal power plan. “Dry-cooling” obviously uses far less water, and has already been used at a few power stations, such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kogan_Creek_Power_Station">Kogan Creek</a> in Queensland. But as it relies on heat exchange with the atmosphere, such power plants operate less efficiently in hotter weather.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.solarreserve.com/what-we-do/csp-projects/crescent-dunes">solar thermal power plant nearing completion in Nevada</a> incorporates a hybrid cooling system that uses much less water than conventional systems. This means that water can be used for cooling when air temperatures are too high for dry-cooling alone.</p>
<p>Solar photovoltaic and wind generators use very little water directly, although they need to be linked to other energy stores and generators to smooth out their power supply. Existing pumped storage hydropower stations in eastern Australia, currently used to back up coal-fired generators, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pushing-water-uphill-can-solve-our-renewable-energy-issues-28196">could be used for this purpose</a>.</p>
<h2>An issue for arid places everywhere</h2>
<p>Clearly water conservation is an issue in Australia, which is largely an arid country. Even in Australia’s temperate zones, most water is already allocated to other uses. Currently, California is in drought and facing <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14911">reductions in hydro generation</a> and forced to look for <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-01/california-agencies-warn-against-water-cuts-threatening-power.html">alternative sources of water</a> to cool power plants. </p>
<p>Switching to new energy sources and implementing other mitigation strategies will change the places where water consumption occurs in Australia. In the future, water consumption is likely to drop in coal-dominated places like the Latrobe and Hunter valleys, while increasing in places where efforts are made to store carbon in the landscape, and potentially where new renewable power stations are being built.</p>
<p>The issue of water shortage is not going away – in fact, it will become more important as more areas of the world experience increasing drought as a result of climate change. Tackling greenhouse emissions is a priority, but it needs to be done in a way that minimises the impacts on water.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Wallis receives funding through Stream 2 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change fund. This research project received funding from the USSC Dow Sustainability Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock and Michael Ward do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Should we pick and choose our climate strategies based on how water-wise they are? As our new research published in Climatic Change shows, some activities aimed at tackling greenhouse emissions can also…Philip Wallis, Research Fellow, Monash Sustainability Institute, Monash UniversityJamie Pittock, Director, International Programs, UNESCO Chair in Water Economics and Transboundary Water Governance, Australian National UniversityMichael Ward, Professor, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/282762014-07-07T20:11:43Z2014-07-07T20:11:43ZCarbon farming initiative will fail farmers and rural communities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53006/original/9swpgpz8-1404441220.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A property in South Australia's Clare Valley, where the farmer has planted hundreds of gum trees.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/daveclarkecb/177201622/in/photolist-gEcSo-5rGKy2-6PSizY-5eEYkd-5eAzY4-bVWE1U-7di7AU-7qV2ot-5eAzLB-bVWE59-gsqhxQ-gEcSq-bVWEa9-dYytUz-aYceqz-cYAwd-gXyMZ">David Clarke/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian farmers and rural land owners <a href="http://www.greghunt.com.au/Home/LatestNews/tabid/133/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/2764/Carbon-Farming-and-Direct-Action--Paper-to-the-National-Carbon-Farming-Conference.aspx">are being told</a> that they will be given powerful and direct incentives to store carbon in the land under the federal government’s new climate policy. But is that really true?</p>
<p>Both as a researcher and as a revegetation practitioner who’s looked into the practical costs of complying with the expanded Carbon Farming Initiative under the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>, what I’ve seen to date makes me concerned that – paradoxically – the one thing this initiative will <em>not</em> to do is encourage carbon farming. In fact, Australia’s climate policies and systems have been, and continue to be, stacked against the land sector.</p>
<h2>What is carbon farming?</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/carbon-farming-initiative">Carbon Farming Initiative</a> is a national, voluntary offset scheme that awards carbon credits for sustainable land management, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>managing livestock to reduce methane emissions (from burps);</li>
<li>crop management (to avoid methane and nitrous oxides, such as from fertilisers)</li>
<li>savannah fire management (to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions); and</li>
<li>avoided deforestation, reforestation and managed regrowth to encourage sequestration of carbon dioxide. </li>
</ul>
<p>It currently works in conjunction with <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-difference-between-a-carbon-tax-and-an-ets-1679">Australia’s carbon price</a>, allowing the biggest polluting firms to invest in the land to help meet their obligations. </p>
<p>With the carbon price looking <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-should-compromise-on-direct-action-australia-institute-chief-28689">set to be scrapped</a> by the new Senate, <a href="http://www.greghunt.com.au/Media/MediaReleases/tabid/86/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/2765/New-opportunities-for-farmers-to-take-part-in-the-Emissions-Reduction-Fund.aspx">the government’s plan</a> is to fold the Carbon Farming Initiative into its new A$2.55 billion <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>.</p>
<p>In a recent speech, <a href="http://www.greghunt.com.au/Home/LatestNews/tabid/133/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/2764/Carbon-Farming-and-Direct-Action--Paper-to-the-National-Carbon-Farming-Conference.aspx">Environment Minister Greg Hunt said</a> that there’s not much point in having the most rigorous, gold-plated carbon sequestration rules in the world if it means that nobody participates. </p>
<p>But, in fact, red tape and high costs remain the order of the day, and the lowest carbon cost projections under the Emissions Reduction Fund make it even harder to farm carbon.</p>
<h2>A big emissions task, without a big enough budget</h2>
<p>For Australia to meet our 2020 Kyoto Protocol emissions target, we need to purchase or cut a total of 421 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Cutting 421 million tonnes at the lowest cost possible will only suit projects with a <a href="http://www.reputex.com/publications/latest-research/market-update-erf-supply-powering-up-or-powering-down/">quick payback and rapid execution</a>.</p>
<p>At an average abatement price of just over A$5 per tonne (which is what <a href="http://www.reputex.com/publications/latest-research/market-update-erf-supply-powering-up-or-powering-down/">market analysts Reputex</a> found would need to be to be within the Emissions Reduction Fund’s budget) carbon farming projects will simply not get a look in. </p>
<p>Take a <a href="http://www.biome5.com.au/page/thiaki.html">rainforest replanting project in far north Queensland</a> that my business is currently working on, as part of a broader research project involving several universities. </p>
<p>Revegetation costs vary across Australia, but within Queensland’s Wet Tropics it’s typically A$25,000 to A$60,000 per hectare. For this particular project, we think we can get them down to A$8000 a hectare – making revegetation far more affordable.</p>
<p>But under the Carbon Farming Initiative, there are far more costs that need to be taken into account. Its reforestation methodology then requires onerous audits not required of other sectors such as the energy sector. </p>
<p>Land sector auditors are compelled to re-measure trees and validate the government’s modelling at a cost to the landholder of around A$15,000-A$25,000 per audit. Compare this to non-land sector audits – such as checking the emissions of a smoke stack - where audit costs are comparatively small for a ball-park assessment. Under the Emissions Reduction Fund, land sector projects will require a minimum of three audits. </p>
<p>With costs of A$40 a tonne of CO<sub>2</sub> suggested by the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-13/carbon-farming-doubts/5522170">Australian Farm Institute</a>, our project might break even in a decade. At A$5 a tonne, we wouldn’t break even this millennium.</p>
<h2>Storing carbon in soil</h2>
<p>The impediments for storing carbon in soils are, if anything, worse. The draft soil methodology for <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/files/reducing-carbon/cfi/methodologies/cfi-sequestering-carbon-1.pdf">sequestering carbon in grazing systems</a> requires landscape mapping of erosion and deposition sites, baseline and follow-up soil sampling by nationally qualified technicians, as well as audits that will likely re-test the soil samples and the government models.</p>
<p>The methodology is emblazoned with caveats warning (at least three times) that management actions are not guaranteed to build soil carbon, reflecting the <a href="http://www.csiro.au/resources/Soil-Carbon-Sequestration-Potential-Report">uncertain underlying science</a>. The methodology seems designed to subsidise the research underpinning soil carbon sequestration at the landholders expense. And all this for a maximum of 2.0 tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent per hectare! </p>
<p>So it is no surprise that of the mere 135 Carbon Farming Initiative projects listed by <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Carbon-Farming-Initiative/Register-of-Offsets-Projects/Pages/default.aspx">the Clean Energy Regulator</a>, 18 have credits issued through storing carbon. There are 0.67 million credits for reforestation and 0.86 million credits for avoiding deforestation. Most carbon sequestration credits have been issued to local councils capturing methane gases emitted from rubbish landfills, and 0.5 million credits for early season burning mostly on indigenous lands.</p>
<p>That there is any appetite at all for sequestering carbon in trees or soils is testament to landholders’ stewardship ethic, and the now-dashed prospects of a reasonable carbon price under an emissions trading scheme.</p>
<h2>Stalled investment</h2>
<p>In an environment now characterised by low ambition and uncertainty, and a hostility to the land sector, credits issued by the Clean Energy Regulator have dropped 72% from 2.2 million in the last quarter of 2013 to 0.6 million in the first quarter of 2014. This stalled carbon project environment is underscored by the fact that the CO2 Group (now called Commodities Group), which has been the largest provider of carbon sink plantings, has <a href="http://member.afraccess.com/media?id=CMN://6A679576&filename=20140602/COZ_01522246.pdf">shifted to aquaculture</a>.</p>
<p>Adding insult to injury, project start dates under the Emissions Reduction Fund will also be <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1f98a924-5946-404c-9510-d440304280f1/files/emissions-reduction-fund-white-paper_0.pdf">adjusted to 1 July 2014</a>. For anyone working in this space, this will be the third shift: from a start date of 2007 under the Rudd government’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, to 2010 under the original Carbon Farming Initiative and now 2014 under the Emissions Reduction Fund. There will likely be many landholders who planted trees in good faith over the years who will now find themselves exposed and permanently out of pocket. </p>
<p>The recently released <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About-us/news-and-updates/Pages/2014-06/27-June-2014-Exposure-draft-Carbon-Abatement-Contract-and-discussion-paper-released-for-public-consultation.aspx">Carbon Abatement Contract discussion paper</a> reveals another show stopper: carbon farmers would need to purchase carbon credits from elsewhere if they were impacted by a natural disturbance such as a cyclone.</p>
<p>In a country defined by natural disturbance, this potentially doubles the costs for the land sector. This is fundamentally a problem with the short-term nature of the Emissions Reduction Fund that does not allow for carbon levels to reach pre-disturbance levels as is currently the case. </p>
<p>The Environment Minister has said that the Emission Reduction Fund will be far more effective at reducing Australia’s emissions than the current carbon price. But <a href="http://www.reputex.com/publications/latest-research/market-update-erf-supply-powering-up-or-powering-down/">Reputex’s recent modelling</a> forecasts that the Emissions Reduction Fund will be able to purchase between 30 and 120 million carbon credits, meaning <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/6/12/policy-politics/emissions-reduction-fund-be-undersupplied-reputex">a likely shortfall</a> of more than 300 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Australia’s current carbon price has already reduced emissions <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/51b72a94-7c7a-48c4-887a-02c7b7d2bd4c/files/abatement-task-summary-report_1.pdf">by nearly 40 million tonnes</a>. In a world moving <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-economy-will-suffer-if-we-fall-behind-on-climate-action-28093">towards carbon pricing and emissions trading schemes</a>, we’re the only country dismantling a working carbon price to replace it with what is a feeble voluntary scheme, which will struggle to purchase even a quarter of Australia’s abatement task, and make carbon farming all but invisible. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28276/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Penny van Oosterzee is a Director of a company that is an eligible offset project under the Carbon Farming Initiative.</span></em></p>Australian farmers and rural land owners are being told that they will be given powerful and direct incentives to store carbon in the land under the federal government’s new climate policy. But is that…Penny van Oosterzee, Senior Research Adjunct JCU and University Fellow CDU, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.