tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/christian-democratic-party-15663/articlesChristian Democratic Party – The Conversation2018-01-03T11:18:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/879902018-01-03T11:18:47Z2018-01-03T11:18:47ZGerman ‘grand coalition’ could strengthen right-wing extremism<p>In today’s highly polarized political atmosphere, Americans may find themselves longing for increased bipartisanship. Wouldn’t greater cooperation from politicians improve our political situation or at least civilize political debate? What’s happening in Germany, however, should make them aware of some of the pitfalls of cooperating across the political aisle. </p>
<p>Germany will have taken a record 100 days to start preliminary talks Jan.
3 about <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-parties-at-odds-ahead-of-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1ER04K">exploratory talks Jan. 7</a> on whether to renew their “grand coalition” between the major parties on the center-left (the Social Democrats or SPD) and the center-right (Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats or CDU/CSU). </p>
<p>While in Germany to observe the national election in September, I saw little enthusiasm for this governing arrangement. The subsequent long hesitation of the main political parties reveals their trepidation. </p>
<p>With 399 of the 709 seats in the Bundestag, a grand coalition may be able to pass any legislation it can agree on, but this is unlikely to help Germany address one of its major problems: the rise of a new right-wing, anti-immigrant party, the Alternative for Germany, or AfD. </p>
<h2>A positive experience in the 1960s</h2>
<p>In the first 50 years of the Federal Republic, West Germany experienced only one grand coalition, which lasted only three years. </p>
<p>Major parties choose to govern together for a variety of reasons. In some cases, there are significant political challenges that can only be addressed when actors across the political spectrum work together. </p>
<p>Germany’s earlier grand coalition – in power from 1966 to 1969 – came into being as a result of the first economic crisis of the postwar years and fears of an <a href="https://50years.intereconomics.eu/an-economic-crisis.html">“economic collapse.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200263/original/file-20171220-4957-13ds2ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The architects of the 1960s grand coalition: Willy Brandt, Kurt Georg Kiesinger and Helmut Schmidt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-F057026-0011,_Bonn,_Pflanzung_von_Kanzler-Ged%C3%A4chtnisb%C3%A4umen.jpg">Engelbert Reineke/German Federal Archives</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ruling Christian Democrats wanted to respond to this situation by raising taxes. Their coalition partners, the market-oriented Freedom Democratic Party or FDP, refused to agree to this move and resigned. The Christian Democrats then joined with the left-wing SPD <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/grand-coalition-a-controversial-alliance/a-17108175">in a grand coalition and worked together</a> to pass policies that brought Germany out of recession. They also found common ground on other policies such as pension reform and greater support for higher education. </p>
<h2>21st-century difficulties</h2>
<p>Germany’s grand coalitions of the 21st century – and this year’s would be the third after the first between 2005 and 2009 and the second from 2013 to 2017 – have been another matter entirely. </p>
<p>Following the Sept. 24 elections, seven parties sit in the German Bundestag, more than any other year since 1949. </p>
<p>In addition to the CDU/CSU (<a href="http://www.aicgs.org/2017/09/the-csu/">the sister Christian Democratic parties </a>count separately and must both agree to any potential governing coalition), the German parliament now includes the Social Democrats, the Freedom Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party (the party that emerged from the remains of the East German Communist Party) and the nationalist AfD. </p>
<p>The Left Party and the AfD are relatively young, both having been created in the 21st century, and are considered to be beyond the pale for coalition formation at the national level because of their extremism. </p>
<p>The problem is that the fragmentation of the party system means that neither of the “standard” coalition arrangements of right-leaning CDU/CSU-FDP or left-leaning SPD-Green has enough seats to form a government. The two major parties, therefore, have been forced into partnership not because of a shared bipartisan vision, but because of a lack of other alternatives.</p>
<p>Initially, however, after the September elections, the SPD declined to join a potential government. This was because many Social Democratic leaders believe that <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379411000709">the main reason</a> for their party having their worst election result since 1949 is that they were the junior partner in a grand coalition for the past four years. How can they claim, the argument goes, that they represent an alternative to the CDU/CSU when they have always voted to support the government? The party, in other words, needs time to re-establish itself as having a vision distinct from that of the Christian Democrats.</p>
<p>What then ensued was a rather unusual proposal for what was dubbed the <a href="https://qz.com/1104508/everything-you-need-to-know-about-germanys-three-way-jamaica-coalition-talks">“Jamaica coalition,”</a> because of its color scheme of black (for the CDU/CSU), yellow (for the FDP) and green (for the Greens). But these negotiations broke down when the parties failed to reach a compromise on the <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/refugee-family-reunification-in-germany-what-you-need-to-know/a-40449409">very controversial issue of family reunification of refugees</a>. At that point, Germany’s federal president <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-social-democrats-face-pressure-over-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1DM10H">publicly pressured</a> the SPD to reconsider. </p>
<h2>What to do about the extremist AfD?</h2>
<p>The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats are far apart on many issues. </p>
<p>The SPD would like to do away with private health insurance; the CDU adamantly disagrees. The SPD wants to allow federal investment in schools, but that policy is opposed by the CDU since it would require lifting a ban on national interference in education, <a href="http://www.perfar.eu/policy/education/germany">a policy area</a> reserved for the states. </p>
<p>The parties <a href="http://www.sueddeutsche.de/news/politik/parteien-was-die-buerger-von-einer-grossen-koalition-erwarten-koennen-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-171220-99-359970">do have common ground on some issues</a> such as tax cuts for the lower- and middle-income brackets. Both also want to do away with the “Solidarzuschlag” – a special tax to support former East Germany – though they have different ideas about how to do so. And they might even find <a href="http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-12/regierungsbildung-union-familiennachzug-kompromiss">a compromise</a> on the tricky issue of family reunification for refugees by agreeing initially to admit only those family members in most danger. </p>
<p>What Christian Democrats and Social Democrats definitely share, however, is the goal of limiting the power of the nationalist AfD. </p>
<p>Indeed, the SPD’s initial reluctance to join the governing coalition was also driven by their desire to make sure that the AfD – now the third largest party in parliament – not be able to claim the mantle of parliamentary opposition. </p>
<p>The German Bundestag does not have an official leader of the opposition, but <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/what-is-the-role-of-germanys-parliamentary-opposition/a-40615464">the largest opposition party does have the right</a> to chair the budget committee and to respond first to any government statements, thus ensuring it greater publicity and prestige. This role may help establish the AfD as a legitimate parliamentary actor. </p>
<h2>No other options</h2>
<p>The lack of other governing options shows how desperate the situation is. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/">Opinion polls</a> show that calling new elections would either return the same results as on Sept. 24 or might even put the AfD in a stronger position. </p>
<p>On the other hand, a minority right-leaning government with just the CDU-CSU in power would be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/25/germany-return-weimar-angela-merkel-bundestag-coalition">worryingly reminiscent</a> of the unstable Weimar Republic of the 1930s that led to Hitler and the Nazis taking power. It would also probably have to rely on the AfD for support in passing legislation, thereby further legitimizing the party. </p>
<p>The bottom line is that the German parties are stuck in a bind because there is no guarantee that a grand coalition will constrain the power of the AfD. </p>
<p>With both major parties in the government, both will be targets of voter frustration. In particular, almost any policies the government passes to integrate <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e1c069e0-872f-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787">hundreds of thousands of refugees</a> are likely to lead to some voter pushback. </p>
<p>Voters worried about the refugee issue were already likely to turn to the AfD. With the major parties governing together, however, the AfD will have even more impact as the leading force of the opposition. As the major parties begin exploratory talks on Jan. 7, they face the continuing dilemma of how to constrain the power of the AfD.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Elise Wiliarty receives funding from Wesleyan University, International Association for the Study of German Politics, German Academic Exchange Service. </span></em></p>Over three months since Germans voted in national elections, preliminary talks are due to start Jan. 7 on forming a coalition government. What has taken so long?Sarah Elise Wiliarty, Assistant Professor of Government, Wesleyan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/824292017-08-24T00:42:25Z2017-08-24T00:42:25ZEthnic religious communities may be the ‘No’ campaign’s secret weapon in same-sex marriage fight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183533/original/file-20170827-27560-xp8szu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Community leaders will play a very important role in whipping votes for or against in the same-sex marriage plebiscite.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Chris Mitchell, formerly The Australian’s editor-in-chief, got it right recently when he pointed to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ethnic-angst-on-samesex-marriage-vows/news-story/d5d6d118eb86144405208bde889c6794?login=1">social conservatism among many ethnic communities</a> as a key factor in deciding the result of the upcoming same-sex marriage survey. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/opinion/samesex-advocates-outed-when-it-comes-to-democratic-values/news-story/58daecdb924a074d089e85f9c94138c0">He noted</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the truth is, many recent migrant groups from Muslim, Buddhist and Hindu backgrounds will be among the most passionate opponents of SSM. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the 2016 federal election, two if not three seats went to the government on the back of an unexpected rise in the Christian Democratic Party’s primary vote. The preferences then flowed to the Liberals. </p>
<p>These seats had large numbers of voters with a Chinese background. They were hit with a massive Weibo social media campaign by evangelical Christians of Chinese ethnicity targeting fears over same-sex marriage and the Safe Schools program – and the impact <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hate-speech-risk-in-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-says-fred-niles-cdp-20160716-gq74vy.html">was dramatic</a>.</p>
<h2>The power of fear</h2>
<p>The “No” campaign has <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/church-warns-of-samesex-coercion-for-schools-hospitals/news-story/3eae56b41c28c0ac16bbf4ecafe04288">already linked</a> same-sex marriage with Safe Schools. This linking of the two was perfected in the Chinese community at the 2016 federal election with real effect. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tony-abbott-morphs-same-sex-marriage-into-a-culture-war-issue-82279">the idea</a>, promoted by the likes of Tony Abbott, that all “politically correct” issues can be confronted by voting “no” may prove to be something of an overstep.</p>
<p>The Chinese community, and many religious minorities, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/10/ush-to-weaken-racial-discrimination-act-opposed-by-ethnic-and-religious-groups">were resolute</a> in resisting Abbott’s and then Malcolm Turnbull’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-05/government-backtracks-on-racial-discrimination-act-changes/5650030">push to amend Section 18C</a> of the Racial Discrimination Act. They did not <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-believe-18c-protections-should-stay-73049">buy the argument</a> about freedom of speech.</p>
<h2>The numbers game</h2>
<p>Assuming the government’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/pyne-calls-mccormacks-samesex-marriage-sordid-comments-unacceptable/news-story/8bb9cfb88a57e901a2145a78b1cd4093">prediction</a> of a survey turnout of at least 50% is correct, the “winner” will need to secure just over 4 million votes from about 8 million people surveyed.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/036">2016 Census</a> provides some insight into the numbers of minority community Australians involved in the same-sex marriage vote.</p>
<p>About 2.5 million Christians living in Australia were born overseas. 500,000 have come from eastern and southern Europe, 160,000 from North Africa and the Middle East, 155,000 from the Americas, 400,000 from southeast Asia, 150,000 from northeast Asia, 130,000 from southern and central Asia, and 200,000 from sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>Not all are of voting age, nor are they all Australian citizens. But they do form serious reservoirs of more conservative cultural values. </p>
<p>Looking at Australian citizens of voting age, there are about 8.5 million Christians, about 4.7 million secularists and non-believers, about 300,000 Buddhists, about 230,000 Muslims, 160,000 Hindus, and about 60,000 Jews. If 60% of the believing communities responded “No”, then same-sex marriage could fail.</p>
<p>As the “Yes” vote groups already realise, getting the vote out will be crucial. The “No” campaigners only need to convince those undecided not to vote. So, voting “Yes” becomes an increasingly “brave” act, and one that may be experienced as a serious breach of community norms. </p>
<h2>What to expect</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/faithbased/2003/11/a_common_missed_conception.html">Religious blocs</a>, consisting of conservative Jewish, Muslim and Christian leaders, have previously united to confront the UN over birth control strategies, and show their resistance to abortion and similar interventions. </p>
<p>Effectively, that bloc now has the US government <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-global-gag-order-5-questions-answered-77838">in its corner</a>. They may well be joined by Buddhist and Hindu leaders this time around. </p>
<p>Interfaith meetings <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/religious-leaders-reserve-the-right-to-call-homosexuality-a-sin/news-story/7cb99e1bbc4af12af58ccdd8b21627f2">have taken place</a> where religious leaders combined to confront government agencies on the same-sex marriage question, and even the very legitimacy of homosexuality. Where it occurs, the debate is fiery, as was revealed by the opposing submissions from religious leaders and gay activists <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Same_Sex_Marriage/SameSexMarriage/Submissions">from ethnic communities</a> to the Senate inquiry into same-sex marriage. </p>
<p>Community leaders will play an important role among those voters who have poorer English language skills. It’s not hard to envisage churches, temples, mosques, synagogues and similar holding working bees, where attendees can be assured they have filled in the forms correctly, and they can then be collected and posted en masse so none are lost.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/arts/television/07sara.html">example of grandchildren</a> of retired Jewish families in Florida arguing them into supporting a black Democrat presidential candidate (Barack Obama) in 2008 indicates that strategies can be implemented that minimise the stereotypical attachment of older religious people to conservative values. </p>
<p>However, it is not clear, for example, how younger Muslim or Hindu people will go arguing with their parents and grandparents to support same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>If the voluntary vote survives a High Court challenge <a href="https://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245">over its legality</a>, it may well prove a much more powerful weapon for the conservatives than a compulsory plebiscite would ever have been.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Jakubowicz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social conservatism among many ethnic communities will be a key factor in deciding the result of the upcoming same-sex marriage survey.Andrew Jakubowicz, Professor of Sociology, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/795472017-06-20T12:14:26Z2017-06-20T12:14:26ZTim Farron showed religion could have a place in British politics<p>After gaining ground in a general election, a leader does not usually step aside. But Liberal Democrat Tim Farron did. He <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/14/tim-farron-quits-as-lib-dem-leader">chose to leave</a> because he found himself “torn between living as a faithful Christian and serving as a political leader”. </p>
<p>Farron’s religious views were closely scrutinised during the election campaign, like no other politician’s were. He was repeatedly questioned about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/18/tim-farron-avoids-saying-whether-he-sees-gay-sex-as-a-sin">his views on homosexuality</a>, for example, following reports that he had in the past failed to explicitly deny that he considered gay sex sinful.</p>
<p><a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/public-reason/">Many liberals</a> argue that politicians and public officials should be free to express their religious views and values in public. That is as long as they ultimately justify their political decisions based on reasons that all citizens – not only religious ones – can accept.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/partisanship-and-political-liberalism-in-diverse-societies-9780198739500?cc=gb&lang=en&">agree, and also believe</a> that partisans like Farron are always inevitably torn between two very different kinds of commitments. This is due to their unique position halfway between the state and civil society. </p>
<p>On the one hand, like other public officials, politicians (and especially party leaders) must commit to the general interest and the common good. This is because their ability to affect decision-making, especially if they are elected to power, will have an effect on the whole of society, not just on a part of it. On the other hand, politicians must respond to their voters’ views and values, which will often reflect partial, rather than general, interests. </p>
<h2>Responsible partisanship</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/blog/live/2017/jun/14/david-cameron-suggests-softer-brexit-as-may-weighs-options-politics-live">his resignation speech</a>, Farron explicitly rejected the kind of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/theocracy">theocratic politics</a> that aims to impose sectarian religious views on the whole of society, rather than promoting the general interest and the common good. </p>
<p>“There are Christians in politics,” Farron argued, “who take the view that they should impose the tenets of faith on society. But I have not taken that approach because I disagree with it – it’s not liberal and it is counterproductive when it comes to advancing the gospel.” </p>
<p>Farron’s political record, including his support <a href="http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?mpn=Tim_Farron&mpc=Westmorland_and_Lonsdale&house=commons&dmp=6686">for same sex marriage legislation</a>, shows that he has generally complied with this vision. His Christianity does not seem to have interfered with his ability to respond to the interests and values of Liberal Democrat voters – among whom there will be gay people, as well as many non-Christians and atheists. </p>
<p>So was it right for Farron’s views to be scrutinised to such an extent that he felt “torn between” politics and religion? If the scrutiny had been directed at his religious views, there would have been nothing wrong with it. In a liberal society, citizens should be free to respectfully challenge others’ views, religious or not. </p>
<p>However, the criticism directed at Farron as a politician and, more specifically, as a partisan leader, seems unfair. Farron’s religion did not prevent him from being loyal both to the general interest and to his voters.</p>
<p>It may be that scrutiny during the election campaign only made Farron more aware of an already existing tension between his religious and political views. But this too is something we shouldn’t – and probably can’t – avoid in a liberal democracy. A religious person’s decision to engage in party politics is a voluntary choice. Anyone who enters party politics should know that they will inevitably experience some tension between their private views and their public duties.</p>
<p>Perhaps, however, the problem is more general. If there were a greater variety of political parties in the UK, one might argue, religious citizens like Farron would be able to find a more suitable party in which they could experience a lesser tension between their political and religious views. </p>
<p>Indeed for some it was strange that Farron
<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/christian-it-was-tim-farron-s-religion-that-was-the-problem-not-other-people-s-attitude-to-it-a7790596.html">chose the Lib Dems</a> – but what other party could he have chosen? What other party can a religious citizen join in the UK, if they wish to have a potential impact on decision-making and do not agree with any of the three major parties’ political platforms? In other European countries, for example, Christian Democratic parties such as Germany’s <a href="https://www.cdu.de/">Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands</a> and Italy’s former <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1994/01/20/world/italy-s-christian-democrats-renamed-seek-popularity.html">Democrazia Cristiana</a> have allowed many religious citizens to combine their political and religious views when participating in party politics. </p>
<p>The lack of a major Christian Democratic party and, more generally, of a sufficiently diverse party system in the UK, may actually be a substantial obstacle to many citzens’ ability to participate in party politics. But this problem, and the question of how it could be resolved, is a topic to be examined elsewhere.</p>
<p>For now, one thing is clear: Farron’s religion should never have been the reason he felt compelled to leave his role as Liberal Democrat leader.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matteo Bonotti's book Partisanship and Political Liberalism in Diverse Societies will be published by Oxford University Press in July 2017.</span></em></p>Religious and political tension should not have been a reason for the Lib Dem leader to quit.Matteo Bonotti, Lecturer in Political Theory, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/382972015-03-25T19:15:44Z2015-03-25T19:15:44ZNSW privatisation could hinge on a single upper house vote<p>The Baird government looks likely to be re-elected at the New South Wales election – but, at this stage, it’s hard to see it winning as many seats as it needs in the upper house to push ahead with power privatisation.</p>
<p>That’s why, this Saturday night, we can only hope the TV coverage of the NSW election devotes plenty of time to the Legislative Council and its new members, rather than just focusing on the lower house results.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/media_releases/2015/13_march_know_your_candidates_for_the_nsw_state_election">record 394 candidates</a> are vying for a Legislative Council seat in this election.</p>
<p>The 42-seat NSW upper house is elected by proportional representation, which produces different outcomes to the lower house. Members are elected for eight-year terms, with half elected every four years. </p>
<p>Combined with the 11 members they have who aren’t up for re-election, this time the Liberal Nationals need to win 10 upper house seats to hold a majority in their own right. </p>
<p>However, the more likely outcome is that minor parties such as the Christian Democrats, led by veteran member of the Legislative Council (MLC) <a href="http://frednilemlc.com.au/">Fred Nile</a>, will have the final say on the government’s plans.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"575887740778082304"}"></div></p>
<h2>How is the upper house elected, and who’s there now?</h2>
<p>As you can see from the NSW Parliament table below, the Liberal National coalition was just shy of a majority in this last term of office. So whenever Labor and the Greens opposed legislation, the government needed the support of other crossbenchers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NSW Legislative Council before the 2015 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/key/MemberStatistics">NSW Parliament</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 21 seats up for grabs in this election are those of the members elected in 2007, when the Coalition won eight seats, the ALP nine, the Greens two and the Christian Democrats and the Shooters and Fishers one each. </p>
<p>To be elected, members need to achieve a quota of 4.55%. But because voting is optional preferential both above and below the line, a high percentage of votes is exhausted and the final candidates can be elected with less than a full quota. (More information on how to vote correctly for the upper house can be found on the <a href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">NSW Electoral Commission’s website</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Upper house results from the past 37 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/key/MemberStatistics">NSW Parliament</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whoever forms the next NSW government would need 21 votes to pass legislation. As ABC election analyst Antony Green explains in this detailed look at the intricacies of the NSW upper house, the Legislative Council President <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/the-battle-for-the-nsw-legislative-council.html">rarely uses</a> her or his casting vote.</p>
<p>But even if the Baird government wins the election, it faces an even bigger challenge to win a majority in the upper house because of the huge number of candidates in this election, including 24 party groupings with above-the-line positions. </p>
<h2>The parties to watch in 2015</h2>
<p>On March 28, NSW voters will be faced with another metre-long <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/above-the-line-is-their-preference/story-fnrskx7r-1227273862005">“tablecloth” ballot</a> for the upper house. That makes it even more likely the vast majority will choose to vote above the line, rather than below.</p>
<p>The prized <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/nsw-election-party-using-fake-photos-wins-top-spot-on-ballot/6309904">first position</a> above the line has gone to the <a href="http://www.nolandtax.com.au/">No Land Tax Party</a>, which has likened its fight to abolish land tax to getting rid of death duties in the early 1980s.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As this Australian Cyclists Party campaign material shows, the ballot paper is huge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://australian-cyclists-party.org/">Australian Cyclists Party</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The No Land Tax Party has been working with preferences expert Glenn Druery, who <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">told The Daily Telegraph</a> this week that “people will get lost on the ballot paper”, giving the minor party a good shot at attracting enough <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/voting/electoral-system/donkey-votes">donkey votes</a> to help win a seat.</p>
<p>The Coalition is listed fifth, while Labor is 11th. </p>
<p>All the way at the other end of the ballot is the <a href="https://australian-cyclists-party.org/">Australian Cyclists Party</a>, which has drawn the 24th and final position, group X. It is contesting a NSW election for the first time, and is pushing for more bike paths, safer roads and a review of speed limits.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voting above the line is again likely to be the most popular way to vote in the upper house – but you can also choose to vote below the line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">NSW Electoral Commission</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The large number of candidates and minor parties will divert votes from the major parties, particularly if voters do not direct preferences to parties above the line or vote for more than 15 candidates below the line (if you choose to vote below the line, you must number at least 15 squares, from 1 to 15, for your vote to be counted; <a href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">read more here</a>).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">The Daily Telegraph reported</a> on March 25 that senior Labor and Coalition sources think the most likely upper house result is that the Coalition will have 20 seats, Labor 13, the Greens five, Shooters and Fishers Party two and Reverend Nile’s Christian Democratic Party two. </p>
<h2>Where the parties stand on privatisation</h2>
<p>Labor, the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers Party have all vowed to oppose power privatisation, which is the key to funding the government’s A$20 billion long-term infrastructure plans.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Bloomberg Business story shared on Fred Nile’s Facebook page, March 24.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153261321734379&id=152695849378">Fred Nile - Official Christian Democratic Party</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That could leave the casting votes with the Christian Democrats. And it’s not entirely clear yet which way they would go. </p>
<p>As well as insisting on a five-year job guarantee for electricity workers, <a href="http://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/media-releases/rev-fred-nile-states-that-the-cdps-conditions-on-privatisation-will-not-alter/">Reverend Nile has reiterated</a> that his party would “use our balance of power in the Upper House to oppose any government proposal to sell our poles and wires offshore”, amid <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-25/nsw-election-mike-baird-under-pressure-china-state-grid-corp/6346342">speculation about Chinese interest</a> in the 99-year leases.</p>
<p>He also plans to chair a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">parliamentary inquiry</a> into the privatisation after the election. </p>
<p>Any restriction on foreign ownership combined with job protection could reduce the value of the 99-year leases of NSW power assets.</p>
<p>Early in this campaign, Premier Mike Baird said that <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-27/no-back-up-plan-if-electricity-sale-falls-flat-baird/6269296">“there is no Plan B”</a> to fund many of his key policies without power privatisation. Unless he gains control of the Legislative Council, he may need to devise one.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bronwyn Stevens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A re-elected Liberal National government needs to win 10 upper house seats in this year’s NSW election to hold a clear majority. But any fewer than 10, and it may need a Plan B on privatisation.Bronwyn Stevens, Lecturer in Politics, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391102015-03-25T01:24:25Z2015-03-25T01:24:25Z#NSWVotes Twitter chatter shows the power of incumbency<p>UPDATED MARCH 27, 11:45AM AEDT: Mike Baird’s Liberal National coalition government has dominated the campaign conversation on Twitter. </p>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.thehypometer.com">Hypometer™ technology</a>, we have been tracking the NSW election in real time and publishing infographics on:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of posts</a> (including which parties have been most active)</li>
<li>how often the Liberal and Labor parties are <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png">being mentioned on Twitter</a></li>
<li>and, for the first time, we are tracking the <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">average sentiment</a> expressed about six different political parties, including trending hashtags. </li>
</ul>
<p>We have embedded those infographics into this article, and they will keep updating every five minutes with the latest social media data. You can keep seeing the latest results right through to polling day this Saturday.</p>
<h2>How much people are tweeting about the Liberals v Labor</h2>
<p>Overall, <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of Twitter conversation</a> mentioning the parties has been fairly consistent at around 200-250 posts per hour, peaking at around 400-500 per hour each evening. The biggest spikes in activity on March 8 and 13 related to the election debates. Earlier spikes related to the announcement of the election. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/images/election-allparty.png"></p>
<p>The seven parties tracked above are, in order, the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Shooters and Fishers Party and the Country Labor Party.</p>
<p>As with the Queensland election, the minor parties in NSW have been playing a very small role in overall conversation. For much of the campaign, the Nationals have seen just 5% of the conversation, dropping to 4% for the Greens, and 1-2% for the other parties. (This may change in the final days of the campaign: the infographic below shows the latest results.)</p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png"></p>
<p>As the campaign has progressed, the balance of conversation across the two major parties shifted somewhat more towards Labor, although this came at the expense of the minor parties rather than conversation around the Liberals. Discussion of the Liberal Party has largely held steady at around 55% of the total party-related conversation.</p>
<p>We saw similar patterns before January’s state election in Queensland, where the majority of pre-election Twitter chatter focused on the Liberal National government, but that government was later narrowly defeated.</p>
<p>In both Queensland and NSW, it’s the incumbent effect at work, where people are more likely to be talking about the current government, in both positive and negative ways.</p>
<h2>Tracking sentiment</h2>
<p>For the first time, we have also been using Hypometer technology to <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">track sentiment</a> during the campaign. A single tweet on its own tells us little, but aggregating the tweets relating to each of the parties on each day may generate a better picture of overall sentiment. </p>
<p>Early analysis indicates that such sentiment shifts rapidly from day to day and can be heavily influenced by external events. For example, the shift in tone of those discussing the Liberal Party has, at times, been affected significantly by events at the federal level – especially early in the campaign when there was still speculation about a leadership spill. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png"></p>
<p>Green indicates more positive Twitter comments, while red is for more negative. The parties listed, in order, are the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Country Labor Party.</p>
<h2>Hot topics</h2>
<p>State-level policies are still influential in the overall conversation. To date, the most prominent trending hashtags in our data set – ignoring generic hashtags such as #nswvotes and #nswpol – have largely related to specific events.</p>
<p>For example, on March 19 #balmainforum was among the most popular Twitter topics in Sydney, as the Greens’ Jamie Parker and the ALP’s Verity Firth battled it out in a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/jamie-parker-and-verity-firth-battle-it-out-for-greens-and-labor-at-inner-west-courier-election-forum/story-fngr8h4f-1227269718935">debate</a> for the inner-west Sydney seat of Balmain.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"578526315013259264"}"></div></p>
<p>But some competing party policies on specific issues have also cut through with particular hashtags, including such #nswnotforsale for electricity privatisation and #csg for coal seam gas, as well as #pilliga (a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-20/labor-pilliga-csg-ban-could-cost-taxpayers-nsw-govt-says/6334990">reference</a> to coal seam gas exploration in the Pilliga Forest).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"576951829738577920"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"580246238244667393"}"></div></p>
<h2>The benefit of incumbency</h2>
<p>Overall, social media patterns cannot tell us who is going to win the NSW election, nor can social media necessarily decide the election. </p>
<p>And of course it should be noted that the Twitter conversation covers only part of the overall public debate. Twitter’s demographics in Australia skew towards a 25- to 55-year-old, urban, educated group, which tends to be influential in public debate, but does not represent everybody. What our research reveals should therefore be seen within a wider context of public debate and discussion.</p>
<p>However, our observations to date confirm the benefit of incumbency and provide a useful indication of the changes in discussion around the parties, in both volume and sentiment, throughout the campaign. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darryl Woodford is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Prowd is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p>UPDATED March 27, 11:45am: These live infographics continue to show the most tweeted about people and parties in the New South Wales election.Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Assistant Data Analyst, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.