tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/climate-change-migration-29921/articlesclimate change migration – The Conversation2021-04-09T22:47:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1569592021-04-09T22:47:28Z2021-04-09T22:47:28ZToo hot, heading south: how climate change may drive one-third of doctors out of the NT<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391625/original/file-20210325-21-140bk06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C1000%2C655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/outback-road-northern-territory-australia-606910745">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A sizeable chunk of Northern Territory’s doctors are thinking about leaving the territory because of climate change, our new research shows.</p>
<p>Our study, just published in <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00028-0/fulltext">The Lancet Planetary Health</a>, shows for 34% of doctors in our survey, climate change is already, or is likely to, make them consider leaving the NT.</p>
<p>If they do, this would leave a large gap in the territory’s health-care system, which already suffers from a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28810919/">fast turnover of staff</a>. These doctors would leave behind communities already suffering from the effects of climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-heatwaves-become-more-extreme-which-jobs-are-riskiest-151841">As heatwaves become more extreme, which jobs are riskiest?</a>
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<h2>Extreme heat and getting worse</h2>
<p>The two summers of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/archive/201902.summary.shtml">2018-20</a> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/archive/202002.summary.shtml">were the hottest</a> ever recorded in the NT. </p>
<p>From December 2019 to January 2020, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/nt/archive/2019.summary.shtml">temperatures were about 4°C above the long-term average</a>. And in late 2019, it was so hot, remote kidney dialysis centres <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/18/heatwave-and-drought-a-dangerous-mix-for-dialysis-patients-in-remote-communities">struggled to cool water</a> for their life-saving dialysis machines. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing extreme temperature in NT" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391622/original/file-20210325-21-1qyjf75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Summer 2018-2019 temperatures relative to every other summer since 1910. Data from AWAP (Jones et al 2009).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pandora Hope/BoM</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Some of the hottest conditions in 2019 were in the Katherine region, which <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/nt/archive/2019.summary.shtml">shattered previous records</a>. However, this shouldn’t have been a surprise.</p>
<p>In 2004 the <a href="http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessy_2004a.pdf">CSIRO reported</a> the average number of days over 40°C in the Katherine region would increase by up to 35 days a year by 2030, due to climate change. </p>
<p>In 2019 there were <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/nt/archive/2019.summary.shtml">54 days</a> of 40°C or above in Katherine. This surpassed CSIRO’s predictions more than a decade earlier than projected.</p>
<p>Climate change is predicted to affect the NT in other ways. According to the <a href="https://depws.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/944831/state-of-the-science-and-climate-change-impacts-final-report.pdf">territory government</a>’s <a href="https://depws.nt.gov.au/programs-and-strategies/climate-change-response-towards-2050">own report</a>, the NT can expect warmer spells to last longer, more frequent fire weather, to have more intense/heavy rainfall, more intense tropical cyclones, and rising sea levels.</p>
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<h2>NT has enough trouble retaining health workers anyway</h2>
<p>Even without the effects of climate change, health workforce shortages in the NT have been <a href="https://human-resources-health.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12960-019-0432-y">significant challenges</a>. The persistent challenges of attracting and retaining staff leads to high rates of churn. An entire clinic’s staff can turn over <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28810919/">in just months</a>, and the impacts can be shattering. </p>
<p>When Katherine’s only GP clinic <a href="http://www.ntindependent.com.au/this-is-a-big-crisis-for-katherine-towns-only-gp-clinic-set-to-close-its-doors/">closed</a> last year, many people were forced to travel more than 300 kilometres to Darwin to see a family doctor. </p>
<p>For us doctors in the NT, knowing how hard it can be to recruit other doctors, summers like that of 2019-20 have raised the stakes. I’ve heard colleagues lament the impact of climate change and talk of moving south. Now we have the data to show how real this threat is.</p>
<h2>We found out exactly the extent of the problem</h2>
<p>We surveyed doctors working in the NT, with 362 responses, representing over 25% of the workforce.</p>
<p>Our study showed NT doctors believe climate change is a serious public health issue. A total of 85% indicated climate change is already or is likely to negatively impact their patients’ health; 74% believed climate change is already causing or likely to cause parts of the NT to become uninhabitable. And for 34%, climate change is already, or likely to, make them consider leaving the NT. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-resulting-in-profound-immediate-and-worsening-health-impacts-over-120-researchers-say-151027">Climate change is resulting in profound, immediate and worsening health impacts, over 120 researchers say</a>
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<p>Extreme heat poses real risks, especially to the elderly and those with chronic conditions. Extreme heat is associated with <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-kills-we-need-consistency-in-the-way-we-measure-these-deaths-120500">increased rates</a> of illness and death. Hot weather <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/b6cd8665c633434e8d02910eee3ca87c.pdf">exacerbates</a> existing heart, lung and kidney disease, and compounds mental illness. </p>
<p>For people living in the NT, the reality of this <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">new and predictably worsening heat</a> is tangible. Weekend <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Game-Set-Match-Calling-Time-on-Climate-Inaction-Climate-Council-Sports-Report-1.pdf">sports</a> are <a href="https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/7144535/the-climate-crisis-poses-an-existential-threat-to-the-future-of-sport/">being affected</a>, the period of relief in the cooler months is becoming shorter, and it’s uncomfortable simply going outside on very hot days. It is hard to contemplate living in a future NT hotter than it already is.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-rethink-of-emergency-care-is-closing-the-gap-one-person-at-a-time-127020">How a rethink of emergency care is closing the gap, one person at a time</a>
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<h2>Why not move south?</h2>
<p>One means of adapting to climate change is to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/478477a">move to cooler climates</a>. But such migration is an option only for people with the means to move. People without such means will have no choice but to stay.</p>
<p>It is unlikely our findings about climate change affecting migration plans are confined to doctors, or to the NT. In Australia and globally, many regions are facing the <a href="https://www.who.int/hrh/resources/pub_globstrathrh-2030/en/">dual burden</a> of health workforce shortages and increasing exposure to climate risks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climigration-when-communities-must-move-because-of-climate-change-122529">'Climigration': when communities must move because of climate change</a>
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<p>In many of these regions, even small increases of out-migration could have significant impacts on health care.</p>
<p>It’s true most doctors in our survey did not think climate change would make them leave the NT, thought this unlikely, or were undecided. However, the 34% of our respondents who thought climate change might affect their plans represent 115 doctors, who we can’t afford to lose.</p>
<p>To address these issues, we need to urgently consider climate change when planning future health workforce needs. And we need to include health workers when Australia assesses the risk of climate change impacts.</p>
<p>These are vital if we are to ensure rural communities, in particular, have secure access to health care in the face of rapidly emerging climate threats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Pendrey is affiliated with the Climate and Health Alliance and Doctors for the Environment Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Quilty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s hard enough to attract and keep health workers in the Northern Territory as it is. Now climate change is threatening to make things worse.Simon Quilty, Senior Staff Specialist, Alice Springs Hospital. Honorary, Australian National UniversityCatherine Pendrey, Visiting researcher, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/887912018-01-09T11:09:17Z2018-01-09T11:09:17ZClimate change is triggering a migrant crisis in Vietnam<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202070/original/file-20180116-53292-1g5njws.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tonkinphotography / Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Vietnamese Mekong Delta is one of Earth’s most agriculturally productive regions and is of global importance for its exports of rice, shrimp, and fruit. The 18m inhabitants of this low-lying river delta are also some of the world’s most vulnerable to climate change. Over the last ten years around <a href="https://www.gso.gov.vn/">1.7m</a> people have migrated out of its vast expanse of fields, rivers and canals while only <a href="https://www.gso.gov.vn/">700,000</a> have arrived.</p>
<p>On a global level migration to urban areas remains as high as ever: <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS">one person in every 200</a> moves from rural areas to the city every year. Against this backdrop it is difficult to attribute migration to individual causes, not least because it can be challenging to find people who have left a region in order to ask why they went and because <a href="https://urban.yale.edu/research/theme-2">every local context is unique</a>. But the high net rate of migration away from Mekong Delta provinces is more than double the national average, and even higher in its most climate-vulnerable areas. This implies that there is something else – probably climate-related – going on here.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200964/original/file-20180105-26145-1xzoywv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Mekong delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Chapman</span></span>
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<p>In 2013 we visited An Thạnh Đông commune in Sóc Trăng Province aiming to collect survey data on agricultural yields. We soon realised that virtually no farmers of An Thạnh Đông had any yields to report. The commune had lost its entire sugarcane crop after unexpectedly high levels of salt water seeped into the soil and killed the plants. Those without a safety net were living in poverty. Over the following weeks hundreds of smallholders, many of whom had farmed the delta for generations, would tell us that things were changing and their livelihoods would soon be untenable. </p>
<p>In 2015-2016 disaster struck with the worst drought in a century. This caused salt water to intrude over 80km inland and destroyed at least <a href="http://khoahocvacongnghevietnam.com.vn/khcn-trung-uong/13123-han-man-lich-su-2016-o-dong-bang-song-cuu-long-bai-hoc-kinh-nghiem-va-nhung-giai-phap-ung-pho.html">160,000ha</a> of crops. In Kiên Giang (pop. 1.7m), one of the worst affected provinces, the local net migration rate jumped and in the year that followed around <a href="https://www.gso.gov.vn/">one resident in every 100 left</a>.</p>
<p>One relatively <a href="http://ijiset.com/vol4/v4s8/IJISET_V4_I08_13.pdf">low profile article</a> by Vietnamese academics may be a vital piece of the puzzle. The study, by Oanh Le Thi Kim and Truong Le Minh of Van Lang University, suggests that climate change is the dominant factor in the decisions of 14.5% of migrants leaving the Mekong Delta. If this figure is correct, climate change is forcing 24,000 people to leave the region every year. And it’s worth pointing out the largest factor in individual decisions to leave the Delta was found to be the desire to escape poverty. As climate change has a growing and complex relationship with poverty, 14.5% may even be an underestimate.</p>
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<p>There are a host of climate-linked drivers behind migration in the delta. Some homes have quite literally fallen into the sea as the coast has eroded in the Southwestern portion of the delta – in some places 100m of coastal belt has been <a href="https://tuoitre.vn/sat-lo-de-doa-tuong-lai-dong-bang-song-cuu-long-20170925111708353.htm">lost in a year</a>. Hundreds of thousands of households are affected by the intrusion of salt water <a href="http://dmc.gov.vn/chi-tiet-thien-tai/han-han-xam-nhap-man-cac-tinh-dong-ban-song-cuu-long-nam-2016-dis164.html?lang=vi-VN">as the sea rises</a> and only some are able to switch their livelihoods to salt-water tolerant commodities. Others have been affected by the <a href="http://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/in_depth/mekong-delta-facing-menaces-06302017110825.html">increased incidence of drought</a>, a trend which can be attributed in part to climate change, but also to upstream dam construction.</p>
<p>Governments and communities in developing countries around the world have already begun taking action to manage climate change impacts through adaptation. Our recent <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1684-3">research in Vietnam</a> flags a warning about how this is being done. We show that a further group of people are being forced to migrate from the Mekong due to decisions originally taken to protect them from the climate. Thousands of kilometres of dykes, many over four metres high, now criss-cross the delta. They were built principally to protect people and crops from flooding, but those same dykes have fundamentally altered the ecosystem. The poor and the landless can no longer find fish to eat and sell, and the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716303734">dykes prevent</a> free nutrients being carried onto paddies by the flood.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201317/original/file-20180109-83550-1k25ikj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Harvesting rice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phuong D. Nguyen / Shutterstock.com</span></span>
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<p>All this demonstrates that climate change threatens to exacerbate the existing trends of economic migration. One <a href="http://www.deccma.com/deccma/">large scale study</a> of migration in deltas has found that climate factors such as extreme floods, cyclones, erosion and land degradation play a role in making natural resource-based livelihoods more tenuous, further encouraging inhabitants to migrate.</p>
<p>To date, traditional approaches to achieving economic growth <a href="http://wer.worldeconomicsassociation.org/files/WEA-WER-4-Woodward.pdf">have not served the most vulnerable</a> in the same way they have served those living in relative wealth. This was demonstrated most dramatically by the revelation that the number of undernourished people on earth rose by <a href="http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1037253/icode/">38m last year</a> – a shift for which climate change is partly responsible. This took place despite global GDP growth of 2.4%. </p>
<p>It is with these failures in mind that society must prepare an equitable and sustainable response to climate change and what seems a looming migrant crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Chapman receives funding from the ESPA programme (<a href="http://www.espa.ac.uk/">http://www.espa.ac.uk/</a>), a collaboration between multiple British research councils and government agencies.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Van Pham Dang Tri works for Can Tho University, Viet Nam. He receives funding from different international and national organisations to study about water resources changes and consequent impacts on the livelihood of local residents. </span></em></p>It looks as if climate change is forcing 24,000 people to leave the Mekong Delta every year.Alex Chapman, Research Fellow in Human Geography, University of SouthamptonVan Pham Dang Tri, Head of the Department of Water Resources, Can Tho UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/787752017-06-12T14:52:22Z2017-06-12T14:52:22ZClimate change risks can be turned into an asset for communities left to cope on their own<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172429/original/file-20170606-3674-1vrxmnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A man navigates a dry riverbed in Bamako, Mali. Climate change is contributing to community upheavals. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Joe Penney</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change has been blamed for many things, and it’s changing the world around us every day. Now a new, perhaps surprising, consequence of the planet’s changing climate is emerging: it’s opening the door to jihadist recruitment, particularly in fragile states.</p>
<p>Dr Colin Walch, a peace researcher from Uppsala University, <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/05/fertile-ground-climate-change-jihadism-mali/">recently argued</a> that “fertile ground” for jihadist recruitment was created when some communities in Mali were forced to deal with local challenges (including changing weather patterns) without government support.</p>
<p>Walch explains that local systems for addressing grievances over land, water and other resources have disappeared. This, he argues, has opened the door for Islamist armed groups to exploit local grievances for their own cause. In recent years climate change has amplified these grievances.</p>
<p>Similar studies about Lake Chad find comparable links. Katharina Nett and Lukas Rüttinger from the German think tank adelphi have <a href="https://www.adelphi.de/en/publication/insurgency-terrorism-and-organised-crime-warming-climate">asserted that</a></p>
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<p>large-scale environmental and climatic change contributes to creating an environment in which [non-state armed groups] can thrive and opens spaces that facilitate the pursuit of their strategies.</p>
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<p>These findings point to the complex security risks that result from climate change. They also confirm that climate change doesn’t act as a cause of violence, but as a meaningful threat multiplier. Generally conflicts are not caused by climate change. But climate change exacerbates the human cost of conflicts. </p>
<p>But, as I <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/15-years-environmental-peacemaking">recently argued</a>, we also need to move beyond a singular focus on risk. Researchers and practitioners have to put opportunity and peace back at the centre of research and practice. We have to stop just focusing on threats. We must strengthen our efforts to identify the potential of initiatives on climate change to overcome political fragility and improve people’s lives. </p>
<p>This requires both a better understanding of what works on the ground and clear global leadership.</p>
<h2>What works?</h2>
<p>So what builds peace? This was a core question at the recent Stockholm Forum <a href="https://youtu.be/VHePKn59p8s">on Peace and Development</a> during discussions on the Sustainable Development Goals <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/">(SDGs)</a> and how they relate to peace and conflict. The answer from panellists was unanimous: include local communities in development processes.</p>
<p>There is substantial evidence in support of having significant local involvement in <a href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/GLEP_a_00028#.WRhtFROGOu4">climate</a>, <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/gr/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/political-theory/governing-commons-evolution-institutions-collective-action-1?format=PB&isbn=9781107569782">development</a>, and <a href="http://www.daghammarskjold.se/publication/local-perspectives-on-inclusive-peacebuilding-a-four-country-case-study/">peacebuilding</a> projects. </p>
<p>The corollary is that the breakdown of local institutions contributes to a lack of development – and worse. </p>
<p>As Walch persuasively shows for Mali, the breaking down of local institutional structures has provided opportunities for jihadist recruitment. Walch finds that both actions of the state and more recently the inflow of Islamist insurgence have led to the breakdown. With the breakdown of these traditional conflict resolution systems came an increase in communal violence. This is often connected to an increasing variability of natural resources because of climate change. </p>
<p>In Mali, and many other cases, there is a need to address the effects of climate change and increasing political fragility. </p>
<p>And both seem possible, as shown in my research in <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2016/03/community-empowerment-vs-state-stability-lessons-nepals-peacebuilding-process/">Nepal</a> as well as in <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2015/08/benefits-redd-lessons-india-tanzania-mexico/">India, Tanzania, and Mexico</a> by Dr Prakash Kashwan, Assistant Professor at the University of Connecticut (USA). </p>
<p>Our research shows that good climate change mitigation policies can also help build such institutions, or at least help in the emergence of new local governance structures. </p>
<h2>Positive examples</h2>
<p>In Nepal I tested if the provision of environmental services helps in facilitating the peace process <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14678802.2016.1136138">after civil war</a>. This research looked specifically at small hydropower projects designed to bring electricity to rural villages and mitigate climate change. </p>
<p>The findings showed substantial successes in, for example, the empowerment of women, better access to education, and increased economic opportunities. But it also showed that community cohesion increased while <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2016/03/community-empowerment-vs-state-stability-lessons-nepals-peacebuilding-process/">local governance structures were strengthened</a>.</p>
<p>The results indicate that climate policies can play an important role in facilitating the growth of local institutions and addressing peoples’ vulnerability and fragility – even if, as in this case, it was somewhat unintentional. They also led to other <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2016/03/community-empowerment-vs-state-stability-lessons-nepals-peacebuilding-process/">political issues being raised</a>.</p>
<p>Kashwan also shows in his recent book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/democracy-in-the-woods-9780190637385?cc=se&lang=en&">Democracy in the Woods</a>, that programmes aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation <a href="https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/what-redd">(REDD+)</a> in India, Tanzania, and Mexico depend on local communities’ inclusion to be successful. </p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2015/08/benefits-redd-lessons-india-tanzania-mexico/">argues that</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>when local people do not benefit, forest conservation efforts tend to be unsustainable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He points to the important role of what he terms “mechanisms of intermediation”. These help citizen groups, civil society organisations, and social movements engage in political and policy processes.</p>
<p>Kashwan’s work points to the importance of competitive politics in driving policies that conserve forests without violating the rights of people who depend on them for a livelihood. </p>
<p>This may seem somewhat intuitive, but it has important implications for local governance structures. Kashwan argues that state and non-state agencies, including international agencies, can foster and reinforce the responsiveness of government to the people. This can be done by strengthening the skills of community groups and civil society organisations at the local level. </p>
<p>As their capacity for organisation and advocacy improve, these entities are able to represent their concerns better. This includes during negotiations over natural resource rights, as in the case of inter-ethnic grievances in Mali.</p>
<h2>We need clear leadership at the highest level</h2>
<p>Kashwan’s research, and my own, shows that reducing emissions through small hydropower development or reforestation can do more than just mitigate the effects of climate change. It can have wider effects that deliver positive returns in all sorts of ways. This includes reducing the opportunity for terrorist groups to recruit vulnerable and marginalised people.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.sipri.org/publications/2017/other-publications/translating-climate-security-policy-practice">Malin Mobjörk and Dan Smith</a> from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute argue this requires clear leadership and explicit institutional change strategies at the highest levels. </p>
<p>This could, for example, entail providing an institutional home for climate security issues <a href="https://www.sipri.org/publications/2017/sipri-policy-briefs/resolution-peaceful-climate-opportunities-un-security-council">at the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>At all levels, it’s imperative that we emphasise the positive potential of sustainable policies and move beyond risk assessments. This is particularly true in fragile states where there will always be risks, but great opportunity too. </p>
<p>The recently published Environment Strategy of the United Nations <a href="https://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/publications/UNDFS_Environment_Strategy_ExecSum_vF.pdf">Department of Field Support</a> points in the right direction. It encourages UN peacekeeping operations</p>
<blockquote>
<p>to seek a positive long-term legacy through the development of specific environment-related projects that may benefit societies and ecosystems over the long term.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>This is an edited version of a <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/05/risk-opportunity-climate-fragility-terrorism-link/">blog</a> first published by the Wilson Center.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78775/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florian Krampe is affiliated with Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). </span></em></p>Generally conflicts are not caused by climate change. But it can lead to complex security risks.Florian Krampe, Researcher at Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI); Affiliated Researcher at Research School for International Water Cooperation, Uppsala UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/634002016-08-04T03:38:35Z2016-08-04T03:38:35ZFactCheck Q&A: as the climate changes, are 750 million refugees predicted to move away from flooding?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132910/original/image-20160803-12220-q017hx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How does Peter Singer's figure of 750 million fit within the range of estimates on 'climate change refugees'?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, August 2, 2016, watch from 1.12.</span></figcaption>
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<blockquote>
<p>PETER SINGER: That is going to basically inundate every coastal city around the world, including, of course, all Australian major cities are coastal. It is going - estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees just moving away from that flooding. Never mind those who also because refugees because (indistinct)… </p>
<p>VIRGINIA TRIOLI: Some of those claims are contested, of course? </p>
<p>PETER SINGER: Well, they are contested but do you want to take the chance, right? <strong>– Peter Singer, Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics, Princeton University, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4490007.htm">speaking</a> on Q&A with host Virginia Trioli, August 2, 2016.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ethicist Peter Singer told Q&A that climate change-related sea level rises are “estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees just moving away from that flooding”.</p>
<p>It is beyond the scope of a FactCheck to say with any certainty what will happen in the future. And there is no single official data source on the numbers of people who migrate because of the impacts of climate change, partly because there is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/the-limits-of-refugee-law/">no legal definition</a> of a “<a href="http://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/FNI-R0116.pdf">climate change refugee</a>”. Furthermore, most such displacement occurs within countries, not across international borders, and is always due to a number of different factors. Finally, there is no <a href="https://nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/PROTECTION-AGENDA-VOLUME-1.pdf">systematic monitoring</a> of such movement.</p>
<p>That said, we can check how Singer’s figure of 750 million fits within the range of estimates that exist on this question. </p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked by The Conversation for sources to support his statement, Peter Singer said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Factchecking always welcome! My source for the figure is <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices">Climate Central</a> and in terms of the possible extent of sea level rises, please see <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf">this paper</a> by Hansen et al. </p>
<p>The figure I gave is near the top end of the Climate Central range, but remember that I agreed with Virginia Trioli that this is contested. I argued that if it is even a small chance, the stakes are too high to be worth taking the risk.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/">Climate Central</a> is a group of scientists and journalists researching and reporting climate change and its effects. In 2015, the group <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices">said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Carbon emissions causing 4°C of warming — what business-as-usual points toward today — could lock in enough sea level rise to submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million people, with unstoppable rise unfolding over centuries. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Predictions vary and uncertainties abound, but climate scientists say it is possible <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-you-ready-for-a-four-degree-world-2452">we may reach 4°C of warming by 2100</a> if insufficient effort is made to reign in emissions. </p>
<p>As Singer acknowledges, his figure of 750 million is at the upper end of estimates – and he readily agreed that estimates are contested. </p>
<p>Without detracting from Singer’s broader point about the human consequences of climate change, it is worth taking a closer look at the context, assumptions and methodologies behind some of these alarming-sounding figures.</p>
<h2>What does Singer’s source say about climate refugees?</h2>
<p>When Climate Central released its <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf">Mapping Choices report</a> in 2015, the headline it used on its website was <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices">“New Report and Maps: Rising Seas Threaten Land Home to Half a Billion”</a>.</p>
<p>But to be clear, Climate Central’s <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf">full report</a> did not say that 750 million people would need to move away due to rising sea levels – in fact, unlike Singer, it didn’t use the term “refugees” at all.</p>
<p>Instead, it said only that under a 4°C warming scenario, there could be “enough sea level rise to <em>submerge land</em> currently home to 470 to 760 million people” (emphasis added).</p>
<p>Many people would indeed move in that scenario – but <a href="http://www.migrationdrc.org/publications/resource_guides/Migration_and_Climate_Change/Improving_methodologies_to_estimate_flows.pdf">past</a> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf">experience</a> from around the <a href="http://www.eird.org/publicaciones/humanimpactreport.pdf">world</a> means we can be confident that many would also stay and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-is-real-which-is-why-we-need-to-retreat-from-unrealistic-advice-51051">try to live</a> with a changed environment.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf">Climate Central report</a> acknowledges that its estimates do <em>not</em> take adaptation strategies into account, noting:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Results do not account for present or future shoreline defences, such as levees, that might be built, nor for future population growth, decline or relocation.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A vast range of estimates – and plenty of guesswork</h2>
<p>Some of the numerical estimates on climate-related displacement are based on crude methodologies, as explained in my 2012 book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/climate-change-forced-migration-and-international-law-9780199587087?cc=au&lang=en&">Climate Change, Forced Migration, and International Law.</a></p>
<p>For example, in 1993 social scientist Norman Myers wrote a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1312319?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">paper</a> suggesting that 150 million people could be displaced by climate change by the the mid-21st century. He had identified areas expected to be affected by sea-level rise, and then calculated the anticipated population of those areas in 2050. In subsequent work and interviews, he said the figure could be closer to 200 million or 250 million. Estimates ranging from <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/50-million-environmental-refugees-by-2020-experts-say-20110221-1b31i.html">50 million</a> to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-climate-refugees">600 million</a> to even a <a href="https://www.christianaid.org.uk/Images/human-tide.pdf">billion</a> have been cited by some.</p>
<p>The Observer published an article in 2010 headlined <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/28/cancun-climate-summit-weather">“Climate change will cost a billion people their homes, says report”</a>.</p>
<p>However, that report misconstrued a paper by Dr François Gemenne –
whose work is empirically based and well-reasoned – that referred to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf">comment</a> that freshwater availability in a changing climate may <em>adversely affect</em> more than a billion people by the 2050s. That’s a different story from the one told in The Observer’s headline. </p>
<p>Many of these upper end estimates – and the methodologies used to calculate them – have been <a href="http://www.migrationdrc.org/publications/resource_guides/Migration_and_Climate_Change/Improving_methodologies_to_estimate_flows.pdf">criticised</a> by other researchers, who note that very big estimates often fail to account for adaptation. </p>
<p>The IPCC itself has <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch7s7-4-1.html">said</a> that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Estimates of the number of people who may become environmental migrants are, at best, guesswork.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>How much weather-related displacement of people have we seen so far?</h2>
<p>Peter Singer’s comment was about future impacts of climate change. But what do we know about current and past climate-related movement?</p>
<p>The best statistics on this are published by the <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/">Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre</a> (IDMC), the leading source of information on internal displacement whose role has been endorsed by the UN. It said in its <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/20150713-global-estimates-2015-en-v1.pdf">Global Estimates 2015: People displaced by disasters</a> report that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Since 2008, an average of 22.5 million people have been displaced by climate- or weather-related disasters [each year].</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/library/Media/201507-globalEstimates-2015/20150713-global-estimates-2015-en-v1.pdf">Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These figures were also recognised in the <a href="https://www.nanseninitiative.org/">Nansen Initiative’s</a> <a href="https://nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/PROTECTION-AGENDA-VOLUME-1.pdf">Agenda for the Protection of Cross-Border Displaced Persons in the context of Disasters and Climate Change</a>, endorsed by 109 States (including Australia) in late 2015, and by the UN Secretary-General’s <a href="https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/sites/default/files/in_safety_and_dignity_-_addressing_large_movements_of_refugees_and_migrants.pdf">report</a> on refugees and migrants prepared for a high-level summit on large movements of refugees and migrants to be held in New York in September 2016. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Are rising seas “estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees” to have to move, as Peter Singer said? Not according to the source he provided, which actually found that sea level rises under a 4°C warming scenario could submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million people; the report didn’t say that all or most would subsequently become refugees. </p>
<p>As Singer acknowledged, his figure of 750 million people being affected by climate change-related flooding in future is at the upper end of estimates – and is contested. The methodologies and assumptions underpinning some of the upper end estimates have been critiqued by scholars, as they often do not adequately account for adaptation. <strong>– Jane McAdam</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>In general, I and others in the migration field would strongly agree with the author’s sound critique of Singer’s assertion. </p>
<p>Human mobility in the context of climate change is complex. Limits to a more nuanced understanding of this issue may be due to a lack of agreement on the legal definitions and the methodological choices made to project numbers of environmental migrants, as well as - importantly - an understatement of the agency and adaptive capacities of people. </p>
<p>Communities in coastal and low-lying areas that may be affected by sea-level rise in the future are affected today by recurrent natural hazards, coastal erosion, land subsidence, and saltwater contamination of arable land. </p>
<p>Empirical <a href="http://www.environmentalmigration.iom.int/migration-environment-and-climate-change-evidence-policy-meclep">studies</a>, including from the <a href="http://ehs.unu.edu/news/news/pacific-climate-change-and-migration-project-makes-waves-at-cop21.html">United Nations University</a>, have explored how migration contributes to livelihoods and household adaptation strategies.</p>
<p>Experts tend to agree that the types of movements that might fall under that moniker “climate migrant” are varied and complex. Robust estimates by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre fall short of accounting for people living in prolonged displacement, displaced across borders (generally agreed to be a minority), or migrating away from their homes due to the long-term effects of climate change (erratic weather, droughts, and the gradual loss of land). The last grouping may be the largest – and would be considered labour migration under current definitions.</p>
<p>The author’s section on weather-related displacement rightly adds an important dimension to a focus on sea-level rise, which is by no means the only cause of movement. An additional important point: climate change experts have largely been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/02/science/looking-quickly-for-the-fingerprints-of-climate-change.html?_r=0">reluctant</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-are-larger-more-frequent-storms-predicted-due-to-climate-change-60866">attribute any individual weather event</a> to climate change, thus making it difficult to attribute displacement due to climate- or weather-related disasters to climate change. <strong>– Julia Blocher</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Research Council of Norway.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Blocher has previously received funding through the project “High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes” (HELIX - <a href="http://helixclimate.eu/home">http://helixclimate.eu/home</a>), funded by the EU Seventh Framework Programme for research (FP7). She is an associate member of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liege, an interdisciplinary research group exploring migration phenomena related to environmental factors and climate change. The Hugo Observatory is directed by Dr. François Gemenne, who is referred to by the other author in this article.</span></em></p>Ethicist Peter Singer told Q&A that climate change-related sea level rises are “estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees just moving away from that flooding”. Is that accurate?Jane McAdam, Scientia Professor and Director of the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.