tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/confidence-13371/articles
Confidence – The Conversation
2023-10-09T16:27:37Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/213628
2023-10-09T16:27:37Z
2023-10-09T16:27:37Z
The secrets to self-confidence, according to cognitive science
<p>In 2019, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20210910-1">7.2% of people in the European Union</a> suffered from chronic depression. The human – and economic – cost of this illness is considerable, which is why the European Commission unveiled a <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/health-consumers/news/beyond-health-policy-eu-commission-lays-out-mental-health-strategy/">€1.23 billion mental health strategy in June</a>, to be achieved through 20 flagship initiatives.</p>
<p>Science shows that self-esteem <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18729703/">plays a key role with certain mental disorders</a>, particularly those of anxious and depressive nature.</p>
<p>Even today, however, the cognitive mechanisms underlying self-esteem remain mysterious. If we are to understand them, we need to start by asking ourselves a set of questions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>How is self-esteem expressed?</p></li>
<li><p>Why does it vary from one individual to another?</p></li>
<li><p>How do psychiatric disorders and self-esteem interact?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Situated at the intersection of neuroscience, mathematical modelling and psychiatry, our research aims to answer these questions to better understand self-assessment, a critical aspect of human cognition.</p>
<p>Here’s what we’ve learned so far, and the main hypotheses we’re pursuing.</p>
<h2>Self-esteem and motivation</h2>
<p>Research in psychology shows that a high level of confidence in oneself and one’s abilities is associated with a greater <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1977-25733-001">sense of control over what happens to us</a>, which may promote our ability to take on challenges. When the latter are met with success, our confidence may enjoy a boost, propelling us into a virtuous circle.</p>
<p>Conversely, if a person lacks confidence when embarking onto a project, they are more likely “not to believe in it,” and therefore to give up trying. The chances of success – and consequently the opportunities to positively reinforce their confidence – are then reduced.</p>
<p>But is it low self-esteem that leads to the onset of anxiety or depressive disorders, or the reverse?</p>
<p>To explore these questions, we need to look at how individuals assess their performance.</p>
<h2>A wide range of confidence</h2>
<p>Let us preface what follows by stating there is huge variability in self-assessment. For example, a depressed person may underestimate their ability to complete a task despite performing on a par with others, while a person suffering from cognitive problems (in the early stages of dementia, for example) may continue to trust their own abilities.</p>
<p>This variability, the origins of which are not fully known yet, takes two main forms.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The degree to which the confidence judgements made by an individual enable them to discriminate between their own correct responses and their errors. For example, one can tend to be overconfident, but still be less so when one is wrong than when one is right. Conversely, one can be overconfident, but equally so, regardless of the correctness of one’s answer.</p></li>
<li><p>The existence or not of a gap between subjective confidence and objective performance.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>We’ve all noticed that some people underestimate themselves, while others overestimate themselves. On the other hand, some are “well calibrated” – they are able to show a high level of confidence when their objective performance is high, and a lower level when their performance is truly lower.</p>
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<p>At the population level, a well-validated finding in behavioural psychology and economics is that <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-04236-009">we are (slightly) overconfident</a>. A case where the numbers speak for themselves is that more than half of people think that they are better than average drivers or are more intelligent than the average.</p>
<h2>Different levels of confidence</h2>
<p>Scientists have long struggled to differentiate variations in confidence from those in other cognitive characteristics. The task is made all the more difficult by the fact that confidence is expressed <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006322321013299">at different hierarchical levels</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Our confidence in a given decision (“I answered this question correctly”);</p></li>
<li><p>Our confidence in a task (“I did pretty well in that exam”);</p></li>
<li><p>Our confidence in a given cognitive domain (“I have a good memory”);</p></li>
</ol>
<p>4… up to our self-confidence, which constitutes an overall level.</p>
<p>These distinctions are important: one can be confident of one’s ability to drive in bad weather (perceptual domain), while not being sure one can remember a list of things to do (memory domain).</p>
<p>Similarly, for certain types of exercise one may be able to “know when one knows and know when one doesn’t know”, whereas for others it may be trickier to distinguish one’s mistakes from one’s successes.</p>
<h2>Two main hypotheses</h2>
<p>There are currently two main coexisting hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying confidence judgements.</p>
<p>One is that there is a central self-assessment mechanism that estimates confidence in any given response or task. This mechanism would be the same across different domains, such as memory, language or reasoning. In this case, actions designed to improve the accuracy of self-assessment <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/personality-neuroscience/article/human-metacognition-across-domains-insights-from-individual-differences-and-neuroimaging/16940B57B2F1649B5F0BC399174F84BA">should aim to “re-educate” or “train” this very central judgement capacity, independently of the task at hand</a>. The benefits would then become widespread.</p>
<p>The second hypothesis postulates that our confidence judgements are not the result of a central self-assessment mechanism, but are intimately linked to each domain. According to this hypothesis, any action designed to improve the accuracy of self-assessment should therefore target the relevant task or domain.</p>
<p>Both hypotheses remain hotly debated. Whether at the behavioural or neurological level, research results tend to indicate that the reality is probably somewhere in between. There is no single centralised mechanism (which would probably not confer enough flexibility), but neither is there a specific mechanism for each domain – that would be too “costly” for the brain to maintain.</p>
<h2>Mental health profiles in the population</h2>
<p>Another hurdle in the study of self-assessment and confidence is that the <a href="https://www.elsevier-masson.fr/dsm-5-manuel-diagnostique-et-statistique-des-troubles-mentaux-9782294739293.html">current classification of psychiatric disorders</a> is in the process of being rethought.</p>
<p>This is particularly true of the idea that a symptom is equivalent to an illness. Anxiety, for example, is not a diagnostic symptom of a single psychiatric disorder – one can be anxious when suffering from depression, a borderline personality disorder, and so on. Conversely, an illness does not necessarily limit itself to a single symptom. Take the case of an obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), where some patients experience high levels of anxiety, whereas others do not. Yet their diagnosis is the same.</p>
<p>This makes it challenging to reliably predict which treatment option would be most effective for a given patient. Indeed, while the traditional classification is clinically relevant, it does not always directly match the neurobiology of psychiatric disorders.</p>
<p>Complementary to this traditional viewpoint, the so-called <em>dimensional</em> approach focuses on the heterogeneity and variability in underlying symptoms, which may be common to several illnesses. This alternative classification is understood as <em>transdiagnostic</em>, one that works through traditional diagnostic categories.</p>
<h2>Maths can help to better capture mental health symptoms</h2>
<p>Traditionally, psychologists and doctors have tended to diagnose mental health disorders by relying on patients’ reports. The latter can enlighten either by expressing themselves directly on the couch or by answering specialised questionnaires, including questions such as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Do you find it difficult to make decisions?”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>or</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Do you sometimes feel so anxious that you find it hard to breathe?”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Using machine learning, researchers attempted to group the symptoms in such a way as to identify common points to different pathologies, rather than studying each illness separately. Once groupings of symptoms common to several diseases had been established, experimental techniques could be used to better grasp the biological, cognitive or behavioural mechanisms involved.</p>
<p>In the case of OCD, machine learning methods could potentially identify subgroups – for example, an “anxiety” subgroup. The hope is that this will make it possible to offer treatments or psychotherapeutic methods that are better suited to each individual. Indeed, a person with anxious OCD may not respond in the same way to a given treatment as a person with OCD where anxiety is less pronounced.</p>
<h2>In the general population</h2>
<p>The idea is that mental health symptoms naturally fluctuate, both in patients and in the entire population. This is true even with those who have not been diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder – we are all to some degree more or less anxious, more or less impulsive, more or less obsessive, and so on.</p>
<p>Applying machine learning methods on volunteers, we found that people with more compulsive and intrusive thinking symptoms generally reported higher confidence, but had a less accurate self-assessment. This pattern <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29458997/">could be related psychological effects such as a tendency to jump to conclusions</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, people with more marked anxious and depressive symptoms were found to have lower confidence in their decisions, but a more accurate self-assessment – which may be related to the notion of <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22717337/">“depressive realism”</a>. However, these results seem to depend on the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44184-022-00009-4">domain</a> in which we are evaluating our confidence (for example, memory, sport, etc.).</p>
<p>A better understanding of how confidence judgements are formed could help us determine why self-assessment varies from one person to another. It could also help us gain awareness of the gap that can exist between our performance and our perception of it.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308798/original/file-20200107-123373-wmivra.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Created in 2007 to accelerate and share scientific knowledge on major societal issues, the Axa Research Fund has supported nearly 700 projects worldwide, led by researchers from 38 countries. To find out more, visit the Axa Research Fund website or follow us on Twitter @AXAResearchFund.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marion Rouault's research is supported by the Axa Research Fund.</span></em></p>
Cognitive disorders can often impact self-confidence, for the better or for the worse. But we won’t be able to offer adequate treatment unless we understand the mechanisms, one scientist warns.
Marion Rouault, Chargée de recherche CNRS en neurosciences cognitives, Institut du Cerveau (ICM)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/211811
2023-08-23T12:26:04Z
2023-08-23T12:26:04Z
How a hip-hop mindset can help teachers in a time of turmoil
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543937/original/file-20230822-19-fzf2o0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C20%2C6679%2C4426&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Confidence is a critical component of hip-hop culture.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/confident-black-woman-in-classroom-royalty-free-image/1298999131?phrase=high+school+teacher+black+woman&adppopup=true">Manu Vega via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While hip-hop has created a lot of good memories, good music and good times, the culture has gifted society much more than just entertainment.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7BZ3GM8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">researcher who specializes in hip-hop culture</a>, I know that one of hip-hop’s greatest gifts is a <a href="https://www.tcpress.com/the-hip-hop-mindset-9780807768709#:">certain mindset that focuses on freedom of thought, flexibility and truth-telling</a>. It also includes <a href="https://doi.org/10.25148/CLJ.16.1.010605">creativity, authenticity, confidence, braggadocio, uninhibited voice and integrity</a> as those things relate to one’s community and culture.</p>
<p>In order for educators to overcome the challenges of what politicians are turning into an <a href="https://theconversation.com/politicians-seek-to-control-classroom-discussions-about-slavery-in-the-us-187057">increasingly restrictive teaching environment</a> – particularly with regard to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-teachers-can-stay-true-to-history-without-breaking-new-laws-that-restrict-what-they-can-teach-about-racism-205452">matters of race and racism in American history</a> – I believe the hip-hop mindset has taken on a new sense of relevance in the educational arena.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/bans-on-critical-race-theory-could-have-a-chilling-effect-on-how-educators-teach-about-racism-163236">Many educators feel uncertainty</a> over what they can and can’t say in the classroom. They also want to stay true to themselves. Here, I offer five ways that educators can adopt the hip-hop mindset to confront the challenges they face:</p>
<h2>1. Claim your space</h2>
<p>When Run-DMC <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcCaycrPIa0">took the stage in the 1980s</a>, they often began their show with Run – one half of the pioneering rap duo – walking on stage and saying to an eager crowd: “We had a whole lot of superstars on this stage here tonight, but I want y'all to know one thing: This is my house. And when I say ‘Who’s house?’ I want y'all to say ‘Run’s house.’”</p>
<p>Through this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25377-6_2">call-and-response</a> routine, the group claimed every arena in which they performed. Whether you call it posturing, braggadocio or swag, hip-hop culture has long rewarded those who confidently took control of the spaces where they work.</p>
<p>Hip-hop’s longevity is due in large part to this boldness – artists standing firm and <a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/musc210-hhp/hip-hop-culture-politics-exploring-the-narrative-and-power-of-rap-lyrics/fuck-tha-police-n-w-a/">fighting back</a> <a href="https://www.villagevoice.com/when-christian-america-and-the-cops-went-insane-over-n-w-a-rap-and-metal/">even when they were under attack</a>.</p>
<p>Strong confidence gives artists the guts to be nonconformists, to tell the truth and to try something new – practices that I believe will benefit teachers in the midst of political efforts to control what they say.</p>
<h2>2. Form a squad or a crew</h2>
<p>From the early days to now, hip-hop artists have always formed
<a href="https://www.seoultherapy.co.uk/post/a-guide-to-k-hip-hop-crews#">squads or crews</a> to perform as emcees or dancers, who often battle to show who has the best lyrics or dance moves.</p>
<p>Early examples include the Rock Steady Crew and New York City Breakers, who famously squared off against one another in an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Xu48tnr4qQ">iconic scene</a> from the 1984 hip-hop movie “Beat Street.”</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Breakdancing battle scene from the movie “Beat Street.”</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Your squad isn’t just your personal friends – they are your colleagues and comrades in the struggle. They are your trusted village of truth tellers, possibility partners and strategic thinkers. Educators can lean on their squad to help strategize and stay sane. </p>
<p>A squad or crew need not be confined to just one school. Queen Latifah, Monie Love, A Tribe Called Quest and De La Soul – who were either solo acts or individual groups – were all part of an even larger artistic community called <a href="https://www.avclub.com/a-beginner-s-guide-to-hip-hop-collective-native-tongues-1798239179">Native Tongues</a>. </p>
<p>Just as hip-hop artists are often part of larger groups, educators can similarly build a larger community of support.</p>
<p>Partnering with local nonprofits and community organizations could prove important now more than ever. These organizations can host and facilitate learning experiences that might be prohibited in a classroom. Through these partnerships, students can get free, community-based programs that enable them to have freer discussions that might not be allowed within a public school in a state that restricts what educators can say.</p>
<h2>3. Remix</h2>
<p>One of the most popular strategies of creating hip-hop music is the remix – where a song’s producer will create a new version of a song, sometimes by borrowing or sampling beats from other songs, changing up the pace, or even introducing new lyrics that weren’t part of the original.</p>
<p>A classic example would be KRS-One’s 1988 song “Still #1.” Whereas the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw_UMdFSSlo">original version</a> was laid back, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gZ6tLhUAHY&t=42s">“Numero Uno” remix</a> featured a sample of an upbeat Latin jazz song and even opened in Spanish.</p>
<p>Embracing the art of remixing might offer a viable way for educators to respond to efforts to censor what students can read in school or educators can teach in class.</p>
<p>For instance, in school districts or states where certain books or topics have been outlawed, educators can use <a href="https://www.cnet.com/culture/how-teenagers-can-borrow-banned-books-for-free-from-brooklyn-public-library/">Books Unbanned</a> – a program in which teens and young adults can access e-books using a national library card. Educators can create a free guide of resources for families that include information on similar programs.</p>
<p>A remix may also be helpful with school funding. Schools at all levels could <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org/social-justice/2022/01/11/critical-race-theory-scholars-counter-funded-attacks">secure grant and foundational support</a>, which can provide the resources to fund community-based partnerships and the freedom to establish specialized initiatives.</p>
<h2>4. Go crate digging</h2>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/cuepoint/the-lost-art-of-cratedigging-4ed652643618">Crate digging</a> is a critical part of the remix. It is the process of sifting through old vinyl records, typically stored in old milk crates or cardboard boxes, to find a long-forgotten song to use in a remix.</p>
<p>Similarly, teachers can turn to the tactics and strategies employed by educators from different eras to see how they dealt with the educational exclusion and erasure of their day. After desegregation, for instance, a new struggle emerged in the 1960s and 1970s to make school lessons more <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2668212">culturally and racially inclusive</a>. </p>
<p>By examining the work of legendary educators like <a href="https://www.cnet.com/culture/how-teenagers-can-borrow-banned-books-for-free-from-brooklyn-public-library/">Septima Clark</a>, today’s teachers can uncover ideas and opportunities to re-imagine historical efforts like the <a href="https://snccdigital.org/people/septima-clark/">Citizenship Schools</a> initiative that Clark developed. These mobile schools – or <a href="https://snccdigital.org/people/septima-clark/">“rolling schools”</a> as they were called – took learning into community spaces. These schools paved the way for programs like the Freedom Schools that were later developed by the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee, or SNCC, and are still in operation today by the <a href="https://www.childrensdefense.org/programs/cdf-freedom-schools/">Children’s Defense Fund</a>. Communities around the country partner with the Children’s Defense Fund to offer local Freedom Schools.</p>
<h2>5. Still keep it real</h2>
<p>As a teenage fan of hip-hop in the early 1990s, I remember the phrase “keep it real” – which is an expression of authenticity – as being <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/08/keeping-it-real-has-lost-its-true-meaning/">extremely popular</a>. At the time, it felt like intense pressure to keep it real and to represent your community. I now look back and appreciate that it actually wasn’t pressure, but rather permission to be authentic.</p>
<p>Educators don’t have to champion the new laws and policies that restrict what they can teach – they just have to follow them. But there’s no restriction against “keeping it real” and discussing the new laws and policies as a civics lesson.</p>
<p>So, when the lesson or class is about current events, students could examine various laws being enacted to restrict the teaching of Black history.</p>
<p>Educators may find themselves facing a growing number of challenges from state legislatures as they increasingly invade their classroom spaces and curtail the kind of content they can teach in class. I believe by adopting the hip-hop mindset, educators will be better prepared to do the kind of battle required to prevail on behalf of truth-telling, authenticity, creativity and all the other habits of mind that made hip-hop the defiant and resilient culture that it has become.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby Jenkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The same boldness that enabled hip-hop to endure can benefit teachers in the classroom, a hip-hop scholar writes.
Toby Jenkins, Professor of Higher Education, University of South Carolina
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/187524
2022-09-02T12:19:58Z
2022-09-02T12:19:58Z
Americans think they know a lot about politics – and it’s bad for democracy that they’re so often wrong in their confidence
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481420/original/file-20220828-54554-ij15fr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C9%2C2003%2C1480&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Overconfidence about their political knowledge is common among Americans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-cheeky-male-is-looking-to-the-camera-crossed-royalty-free-image/1187619520?adppopup=true"> FXQuadro/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As statewide primaries <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2022-state-primary-election-dates-and-filing-deadlines.aspx">continue through the summer</a>, many Americans are beginning to think about which candidates they will support in the 2022 general election. </p>
<p>This decision-making process is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2004.00389.x">fraught with difficulties</a>, especially for inexperienced voters. </p>
<p>Voters must navigate angry, emotion-laden <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/718979?casa_token=ymdmvuFxNIYAAAAA:z1z3MKSdl3idlKSTX3zDO3d4uv0aoZCJMROMCQuHPK2k2fsYRJYYC1nIiKEjWyZtkJmKxS_pLvgc">conversations about politics</a> when trying to sort out whom to vote for. Americans are more likely than ever to view politics in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajps.12448?casa_token=F2UjJp6yBzEAAAAA:s2iseAJ6C9nBkDGJRGM-62ud9L3khqJbDGV4zV-RUJxgM1TUyGpcKzpVy3W24gd8vuc2GO8Thi-a_tg">moral terms</a>, meaning their political conversations sometimes feel like epic battles between <a href="https://theconversation.com/liz-cheney-trounced-black-sheep-effect-and-gop-partisan-identity-explain-her-decisive-defeat-after-criticizing-trump-188635">good and evil</a>.</p>
<p>But political conversations are also shaped by, obviously, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0093650219866357?casa_token=6GnhyVTa1fQAAAAA:5hawVbLeJesH5B4pkEjTQG0GzN0aXJtN-JvxPADq4uFSWy6P2m8yd8ZaD9bcgnPwUUpd1eRq5imFxQ">what Americans know</a> – and, less obviously, what they think they know – about politics. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RG_vffMAAAAJ&hl=en">In recent research</a>, I studied how Americans’ perceptions of their own political knowledge shape their political attitudes. My results show that many Americans think they know much more about politics than they really do.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large sandwich board that says 'Voters enter here' outside a building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481422/original/file-20220828-16-vjgmkz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters arrive to cast their primary ballots at a polling place on Aug. 9, 2022, in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-arrive-to-cast-their-ballots-at-a-polling-place-news-photo/1413852982?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Knowledge deficit, confidence surplus</h2>
<p>Over the past five years, I have studied the phenomenon of what I call “political overconfidence.” My work, in tandem with other researchers’ studies, reveals the ways it thwarts democratic politics.</p>
<p>Political overconfidence can make people <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/20531680221107869">more defensive</a> of factually wrong beliefs about politics. It also causes Americans to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12490">underestimate</a> the political skill of their peers. And those who believe themselves to be political experts often <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12490">dismiss the guidance</a> of real experts.</p>
<p>Political overconfidence also interacts with <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20130921">political partisanship</a>, making partisans less willing to listen to peers across the aisle. </p>
<p>The result is a breakdown in the ability to learn from one another about political issues and events.</p>
<h2>A ‘reality check’ experiment</h2>
<p>In my most <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/20531680221107869">recent study</a> on the subject, I tried to find out what would happen when politically overconfident people found out they were mistaken about political facts. </p>
<p>To do this, I recruited a sample of Americans to participate in a survey experiment via the <a href="https://luc.id/log-in/">Lucid</a> recruitment platform. In the experiment, some respondents were shown a series of statements that taught them to avoid common political falsehoods. For instance, one statement explained that while many people believe that Social Security will soon run out of money, the reality is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/many-fear-social-security-will-run-out-of-money-why-that-wont-happen.html">less dire</a> than it seems.</p>
<p>My hypothesis was that most people would learn from the statements, and become more wary of repeating common political falsehoods. However, as I have found in my <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12490">previous studies</a>, a problem quickly emerged. </p>
<h2>The problem</h2>
<p>First, I asked respondents a series of basic questions about American politics. This quiz included topics like which party controls the House of Representatives – the Democrats – and who the current Secretary of Energy is – Jennifer Granholm. Then, I asked them how well they thought they did on the quiz.</p>
<p>Many respondents who believed they were top performers were actually among those who scored the worst. Much akin to the results of a famous study by <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/dunning-kruger-effect">Dunning and Kruger</a>, the poorest performers did not generally realize that they lagged behind their peers.</p>
<p>Of the 1,209 people who participated, around 70% were overconfident about their knowledge of politics. But this basic pattern was not the most worrying part of the results. </p>
<p>The overconfident respondents failed to change their attitudes in response to my warnings about political falsehoods. My investigation showed that they did read the statements, and could report details about what they said. But their attitudes toward falsehoods remained inflexible, likely because they – wrongly – considered themselves political experts.</p>
<p>But if I could make overconfident respondents more humble, would they actually take my warnings about political falsehoods to heart?</p>
<h2>Poor self-assessment</h2>
<p>My experiment sought to examine what happens when overconfident people are told their political knowledge is lacking. To do this, I randomly assigned respondents to receive one of three experimental treatments after taking the political knowledge quiz. These were as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Respondents received statements teaching them to avoid political falsehoods.</p></li>
<li><p>Respondents did not receive the statements.</p></li>
<li><p>Respondents received both the statements and a “reality check” treatment. The reality check showed how respondents fared on the political quiz they took at the beginning of the survey. Along with their raw score, the report showed how respondents ranked among 1,000 of their peers. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>For example, respondents who thought they had aced the quiz might have learned that they got one out of five questions right, and that they scored worse than 82% of their peers. For many overconfident respondents, this “reality check” treatment brought them down to earth. They reported much less overconfidence on average when I followed up with them.</p>
<p>Finally, I asked all the respondents in the study to report their levels of skepticism toward five statements. These statements are all common political falsehoods. One statement, for example, asserted that violent crime had risen over the prior decade – <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/nations-two-crime-measures-2011-2020">it hadn’t</a>. Another claimed the U.S. spent 18% of the federal budget on foreign aid – the real number was <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/what-every-american-should-know-about-u-s-foreign-aid/">less than 1%</a>.</p>
<p>I expected most respondents who had received my cautionary statements to become more skeptical of these misinformed statements. On average, they did. But did overconfident respondents learn this lesson too?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two boxes, one labeled myths and the other labeled facts, with the facts box checked." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481423/original/file-20220828-30291-46sqsm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Those who believe themselves to be political experts often dismiss the guidance of real experts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/choose-the-facts-over-the-myths-concept-royalty-free-image/1305853676?adppopup=true">IvelinRadkov/iStock/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reality check: Mission accomplished</h2>
<p>The results of the study showed that overconfident respondents began to take political falsehoods seriously only if they had experienced my “reality check” treatment first. </p>
<p>While overconfident respondents in other conditions showed no reaction, the humbling nature of the “reality check,” when they realized how wrong they had been, led overconfident participants in that condition to revise their beliefs. They increased their skepticism of political falsehoods by a statistically significant margin.</p>
<p>Overall, this “reality check” experiment was a success. But it reveals that outside of the experiment, political overconfidence stands in the way of many Americans’ ability to accurately perceive political reality.</p>
<h2>The problem of political overconfidence</h2>
<p>What, if anything, can be done about the widespread phenomenon of political overconfidence?</p>
<p>While my research cannot determine whether political overconfidence is increasing over time, it makes intuitive sense that this problem would be growing in importance in an era of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168018816189">online political discourse</a>. In the online realm, it is often difficult to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17512786.2015.1102607">appraise the credibility</a> of anonymous users. This means that false claims are easily spread by uninformed people who merely sound confident.</p>
<p>To combat this problem, social media companies and opinion leaders could seek ways to promote discourse that emphasizes humility and self-correction. Because confident, mistaken self-expression can easily drown out more credible voices in the online realm, social media apps could consider promoting humility by reminding posters to reconsider the <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/text.1.1989.9.1.93/html">“stance</a>,” or assertiveness, of their posts.</p>
<p>While this may seem far-fetched, recent developments show that small nudges can lead to powerful shifts in social media users’ online behavior. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/25/21455635/twitter-read-before-you-tweet-article-prompt-rolling-out-globally-soon">Twitter’s recent inclusion</a> of a pop-up message that asks would-be posters of news articles to “read before tweeting” caused users to rethink their willingness to share potentially misleading content. </p>
<p>A gentle reminder to avoid posting bold claims without evidence is just one possible way that social media companies could encourage good online behavior. With another election season soon upon us, such a corrective is urgently needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Anson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Many Americans think they know much more about politics than they really do. That overconfidence can thwart democratic politics.
Ian Anson, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/175596
2022-02-15T13:23:45Z
2022-02-15T13:23:45Z
Trust comes when you admit what you don’t know – lessons from child development research
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446357/original/file-20220214-23-1v7o8t3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=283%2C55%2C4760%2C3163&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kids figure out who's trustworthy as they learn about the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/father-and-young-son-portrait-royalty-free-image/117456173">Sandro Di Carlo Darsa/PhotoAlto Agency RF Collections via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Consider the following situation: Two experts give you advice about whether you should eat or avoid the fat in common cooking oils.</p>
<p>One of them tells you confidently that there are “good” or “bad” fats, so you can eat some oils and not others. The other is more hesitant, saying the science is mixed and it depends on the individual and the situation, so probably just best to avoid them all until more evidence is available, or see your doctor to find out what is best for you.</p>
<p>Whose advice do you follow?</p>
<p>Neither one of these experts is factually incorrect. But the confident source likely has some additional appeal. Research suggests that people are more likely to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xge0000471">follow advice delivered with confidence</a> and to reject advice delivered with hesitancy or uncertainty.</p>
<p>During the pandemic, public health officials <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/pandemic-communications-public-health/622044/">have seemed to operate on this assumption</a> – that confidence conveys expertise, leadership and authority and is necessary to get people to trust you. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2020.1864892">public health recommendations about COVID-19</a> are complicated by the rapidly changing scientific understanding of the disease and its spread. Each time there’s new information, some of the old knowledge becomes obsolete and is replaced.</p>
<p>Over the course of the pandemic, Pew Research Center polling has found that the percentage of Americans who <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2022/02/09/increasing-public-criticism-confusion-over-covid-19-response-in-u-s/">feel confused and less confident</a> in public health officials’ recommendations because of changing guidelines has grown.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="masked man and woman stand with American flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the president, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky have needed to update advice as the pandemic continues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dr-anthony-fauci-director-of-the-national-institute-of-news-photo/1361356289">Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a landscape of constantly changing science, is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1317504111">communicating with total confidence</a> the best way to win public trust? Maybe not. Our research suggests that, in many cases, people trust those who are willing to say “I don’t know.”</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TMuSMXoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DxmHk08AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychological</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ibmI_W0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scientists</a> who study the emergence, in childhood, of what is termed “epistemic trust” – which is trusting that someone is a knowledgeable and reliable source of information. Infants learn to trust their caregivers for other reasons – attachment bonds are formed based on love and consistent care. </p>
<p>But, from the time children are 3 or 4 years old, they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8624.00334">also begin to trust people</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034191">based on what they claim to know</a>. In other words, from early in life our minds separate the love-and-care kind of trust from <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674503830">the sort of trust you need</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8624.2005.00849.x">to get reliable, accurate information</a> that helps you learn about the world. These are the origins of adult trust in experts – and in science.</p>
<h2>Observing trust in the lab</h2>
<p>The setup of our lab studies with kids is similar to our starting example above: Kids meet people and learn facts from them. One person sounds confident and the other sounds uncertain. The children in our studies are still in preschool, so we use simple “lessons” appropriate to the age group, often involving teaching children new made-up vocabulary words. We’re able to vary things about the “teachers” and see how children respond differently.</p>
<p>For instance, in the lab we find that children’s brain activity and learning are responsive to differences in tone between confidence and uncertainty. If you teach a 4-year-old a new word with confidence, they will learn it in one shot. But if you say “hmm, I’m not sure, I think this is called a …,” something changes.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/desc.12544">Electrical activity in the brain shows</a> that children both remember the event and learn the word when someone teaches with confidence. When someone communicates uncertainty, they remember the event but don’t learn the word. </p>
<p>If a speaker says they are unsure, it can actually help a listener separate memory of a specific thing they heard from facts they think must be widely known.</p>
<h2>Effects of acknowledging uncertainty</h2>
<p>In addition to forming accurate impressions in your memory, communicated uncertainty also helps you learn about cases that are uncertain by their nature. Disease transmission is one of these cases.</p>
<p>Our research shows that even 5-year-old children learn about uncertain data better from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2021.105183">someone who expresses that uncertainty outright</a> than someone who is confident that things will always work the same way.</p>
<p>In this study, kids saw cause-and-effect relations – objects turned on a music machine. Some objects (black ones) always made it go, others (yellow ones) never made it go, and still others made it go sometimes. For instance, red objects were 66% effective, and white objects were 33% effective. </p>
<p>One group of kids heard a contrast between red and white objects communicated with too much certainty: “Red ones make it go and white ones do not.” Later, kids in this group were confused when they had to distinguish these uncertain causes from more certain black and yellow ones. </p>
<p>Another group of kids heard the contrast communicated with uncertainty: “Maybe the red ones sometimes make it go, and the white ones sometimes do not.” Kids in this group were not confused. They learned that these objects were effective only sometimes, and they could distinguish them from objects that were always or never effective.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="close-up of woman listening to young boy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children become skeptical of adults who are mixed up but confident.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/little-boy-uses-sign-language-to-talk-to-a-woman-royalty-free-image/1318193583">Catherine Falls Commercial/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overconfidence undermines trust</h2>
<p>The studies above show that appropriately communicated uncertainty can influence trust in the short term. But pandemic communication is complicated mainly because no one can predict what information will change in the future. What is better in the long term – admitting what you don’t know, or being confident about information that might change?</p>
<p>[<em>Research into coronavirus and other news from science</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-corona-research">Subscribe to The Conversation’s new science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In a recent study, we showed that over the long term, when you have a chance of being wrong, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000294">too much confidence carries risk</a>. One group of 4-year-olds saw an adult who admitted not knowing the names for common objects: a ball, a book, a cup. Another group saw an adult who claimed to know what the objects were called but got them all wrong – for example, calling a ball “a shoe.”</p>
<p>When the adult admitted ignorance, 4-year-olds were willing to keep learning all sorts of things from them, even more words. But when the adult was confident and inaccurate, she lost all credibility. Even when children knew she could help them find a hidden toy, they wouldn’t trust her to tell them where it was.</p>
<h2>Safeguarding trust by saying ‘I don’t know’</h2>
<p>The lesson from our research is that speaking with confidence about information that will likely change is a bigger threat to earning trust than expressing uncertainty. When health officials confidently enact a policy at one time, and then confidently enact a different, even contradictory, policy later on, they are acting like the “unreliable informants” in our studies. </p>
<p>Public health communication can have two goals. One is to get people to act fast and follow best practices based on what’s known now. A second is to gain the sustained, long-term trust of the public so that when fast action is needed, people have faith that they are doing the right thing by following guidelines. Rhetoric that is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2020.1864892">designed to convey certainty</a> in hopes of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/10755470211063628">earning widespread compliance</a> may be counterproductive if it risks mortgaging the long-term trust of the public.</p>
<p>While we recognize the difficulty of communicating in uncertain times, and doing so to an increasingly polarized public, we think it’s important to heed the lessons from the earliest psychology of trust. </p>
<p>The good news is that, based on our research, we believe the human mind doesn’t balk at hearing communicated uncertainty – quite the opposite. Our minds and brains are made to handle the occasional “I think so,” “I’m not sure” or “I don’t know.” In fact, our ability to do this emerges early in child development and is a cornerstone of our ability to learn from others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tamar Kushnir receives funding from NSF, NIH, John Templeton Foundation and the Dept. of Agriculture.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Sobel receives funding from NSF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Sabbagh receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. </span></em></p>
People often try to seem confident and certain in their message so it will be trusted and acted upon. But when information is in flux, research suggests you should be open about what you don’t know.
Tamar Kushnir, Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University
David Sobel, Professor of Cognitive, Linguistic & Psychological Sciences, Brown University
Mark Sabbagh, Professor of Psychology, Queen's University, Ontario
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/176864
2022-02-11T13:33:30Z
2022-02-11T13:33:30Z
Confidence culture tells women to be more self-assured – but ignores the real problems
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445924/original/file-20220211-17-izmh1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C10%2C3475%2C1983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/five-women-different-nationalities-cultures-standing-1708934329">Mary Long/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With Valentine’s Day around the corner, advice about confidence is proliferating. <a href="https://www.vogue.co.uk/beauty/article/how-to-boost-sexual-confidence-valentines-day">British Vogue</a> enjoins women to boost their sexual confidence with slogans like “feel good in your body” and say goodbye to negative talk. Meanwhile <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/04/selfridges-sex-therapy-psychedelic-trips-superself">Selfridges</a> promises shoppers a sex and relationship “MOT”, in which “confidence coaching” for women comes as part of the package. </p>
<p>But (like dogs and Christmas), confidence is not just for Valentine’s Day. It is now a 24/7 obligation for women.</p>
<p>Inequality in the workplace? Women need to lean in and become more confident. Eating disorders and poor body image? Programmes promoting girls’ confidence and body positivity are the solution. Parenting problems? Let’s help make mums feel more confident so they can raise confident kids. Post-pandemic relationship sours? Well, confidence is, after all, “<a href="https://www.thebusinesswomanmedia.com/confidence-new-sexy/">the new sexy</a>”. Even the British Army now targets potential female recruits with the promise that joining the military will give young women confidence that “<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/do-give-generation-z-lasting-self-confidence-not-army/">lasts a lifetime</a>”.</p>
<p>The need for self-confidence has become so much a part of our common sense that it is presented as beyond debate. Cast as a feminist intervention, and aimed at the obvious good of empowering women, who could possibly be against it?</p>
<p>But, as we argue in our new book, the problem with these imperatives, programmes and interventions – what we call <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/confidence-culture">Confidence Culture</a> – is that they encourage us to undertake extensive work on the self and direct us away from calling out structural inequalities that are the real source of the problems women face.</p>
<h2>A personal deficit?</h2>
<p>Self-confidence is presented as the solution to a wide range of issues across many spheres of life: from the welfare system to consumer culture, body image, the workplace, parenting, education and sex and relationship advice. Rather than identifying the root causes of structural inequality, confidence culture reframes social injustices in terms of internal obstacles and personal deficits through, for example, familiar phrases such as “Your lack of confidence is holding you back,” or “We do this to ourselves.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman with briefcase scales stairs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445925/original/file-20220211-13-1eh6jd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The toxic idea that if women were more confident they could be more successful is pervasive.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/african-american-businesswoman-climbing-onto-career-2051883686">Mary Long/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take the pandemic’s devastating and disproportionate economic impact on women —including <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2020/9/feature-covid-19-economic-impacts-on-women">increased unemployment</a>, the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/diversity-and-inclusion/seven-charts-that-show-covid-19s-impact-on-womens-employment">scaling back of paid work</a>, and the widening <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/genderpaygapintheuk/2021">gender pay gap</a>. In response, workplace schemes have offered “confidence training” courses and <a href="https://www.womensrights.org/blog-1/https/docsgooglecom/document/d/17q7dxuanb3wjinohewfvsqcm0sgh0amf7rqywoosq/editheadingh6k3pyrk8ypoa">advice</a> for women, while organisations, life coaches and lifestyle media implore women to believe in themselves, “<a href="https://www.today.com/parents/moms/moms-can-restart-careers-pandemic-rcna11255">fill your own cup first</a>” and “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/aug/02/dont-beat-yourself-up-10-ways-feel-happier-body-world-reopens">remember that confidence is a work in progress</a>”.</p>
<p>Thus, instead of holding government, workplaces, corporations and the education system to account, confidence culture — even if well-meaning — calls on women to work on themselves in order to tackle their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/27/if-only-our-inferior-leaders-were-not-immune-to-the-self-doubt-that-afflicts-jacinda-ardern">impostor syndrome</a>, change the way they think, feel, communicate, hold their bodies and occupy space.</p>
<h2>Changing the world, not the woman</h2>
<p>Confidence culture directs us ever more inward, shifting the responsibility and the blame for social ills onto the shoulders of individual women.</p>
<p>Moreover, with the exponential rise in stress and mental health issues — all profoundly exacerbated by years of austerity and now the pandemic — confidence and self-care apps, targeting women, have boomed. Several <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/xe/en/insights/industry/technology/technology-media-and-telecom-predictions/2022/mental-health-app-market.html">reports</a> identified the growth of <a href="https://www.acg.org/nyc/news-trends/news/digital-wellness-preview-lockdowns-give-self-care-apps-boost">self-care apps</a> as one of the biggest health and consumer trends of the pandemic, driven largely by women and millennials. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman surrounded by storm clouds." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445926/original/file-20220211-15-1megwhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Confidence culture tells women that they could love themselves more or be more successful if only they change themselves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/african-american-woman-feels-anxiety-emotional-1999261106">Mary Long/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the area of body image, most experts agree that <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691160078/perfect-me">pressures on women</a> are intensifying. Yet rather than critically addressing these punitive and unrealistic ideals, beauty brands are hiring “<a href="https://www.lorealparisusa.com/our-brand-ambassadors">confidence ambassadors</a>” and female celebrities are advocating body positivity and self-love. From “woke advertising” to hashtags across social media and more, inspirational mantras and positive affirmations addressing girls and women relentlessly promote self-belief and positivity.</p>
<p>We urgently need to shift this emphasis and tackle the structural inequalities that the pandemic has so clearly spotlighted and that the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/cost-of-living-crisis-inflation-fuel-shortages-tax-rises-b1932555.html">cost-of-living crisis</a> is now highlighting so brutally. We need to challenge the endless encouragement of women and girls to work on and care for themselves (because no one else will). Rather than an individualised and psychologised confidence culture, we need to invest in building and sustaining social structures and policies that support, ensure and reinforce women’s safety, well-being and power.</p>
<p>We don’t need more emphasis on blaming and changing women, we need to change the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
There is a pervasive message from fashion, tech and the media that women can change their lives if they could be more confident.
Rosalind Gill, Professor of Social and Cultural Analysis, City, University of London
Shani Orgad, Professor of Media and Communications, London School of Economics and Political Science
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/163866
2021-07-28T13:27:51Z
2021-07-28T13:27:51Z
Taking the circus to school: How kids benefit from learning trapeze, juggling and unicycle in gym class
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410400/original/file-20210708-13-13zxiyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2297%2C1665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers found that circus activities improve movement competencies, confidence and motivation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(© Marie-Andrée Lemire, École nationale de cirque, 2019)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/cirque-de-lecole-574439002.html">Twelve public schools in Winnipeg</a> are currently operating circus programs in physical education. </p>
<p>Circus arts have been gaining popularity in schools around the world. Added to physical education programs, circus arts instruction not only seems to motivate children to exercise, but also has the potential to develop other abilities beyond the physical. </p>
<p>My research team measured <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jtpe.2018-0269">resiliency and physical literacy levels among students who started circus activities in physical education</a>. Physical literacy is the competence, confidence and knowledge to be physically active for life.</p>
<h2>Why physical literacy is important for children</h2>
<p>J.J. Ross, co-ordinator of physical education and health education at the St. James Assiniboia school division, helped to implement circus activities for four schools in Canada with about 160 attending students. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6Xfxbn-7ac&ab_channel=J.J.Ross">He says the biggest benefit he’s seen in the students</a> is in motivation and confidence as it relates not only to physical literacy, but to performing. He says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I am traditionally a ‘sports’ guy and everything I have done in my life was aimed at competing against someone or another group of individuals. This focus is aimed at entertaining, not competing. This has attracted a different group of kids to be active for life.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The initiative at the St. James Assiniboia School Division was part of a research project in which circus activities were implemented in Canadian school curriculum in Grades 4-6. Circus activities encompass juggling balls and scarves, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4pC9SRZc38&ab_channel=Juggleboy">flower sticks</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcaw8myrmpo&ab_channel=CircusVideoLibrary">rola bola</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxm9s5fd5oU&t=50s&ab_channel=KumaFilms">diabolo</a>, stilts, unicycle, trampoline, trapeze, rope climbing, hoops, wire and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_NNLCfJzvo&ab_channel=KumaFilms">German wheel</a>. My <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jtpe.2018-0269">research team compared physical literacy</a> among these students with students using standard physical education instruction. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p6Xfxbn-7ac?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">St. James Assiniboia School Division took part in a research project implementing circus arts in Canadian school curriculum in Grades 4-6.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Researchers found that circus activity improves <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2019.00346">movement competencies, confidence and motivation</a>. This study is also novel in that it reduced the gender gap in movement competencies with downstream positive psychological benefits to the female participants, potentially due to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.12.084">inclusive and participatory nature of the circus</a>. </p>
<p>Circus activity in its various forms alternates between individual work and teamwork. It is non-competitive and encourages individual and artistic movement. These aspects motivate students to participate in physical activities, especially girls, and provides a challenge for all levels of abilities and interests. </p>
<p>Circus arts instruction shows great promise, as it contributes to break the cycle of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/reports-publications/health-promotion-chronic-disease-prevention-canada-research-policy-practice/vol-37-no-8-2017/at-a-glance-physical-activity-sedentary-behaviour-sleep-indicator-framework.html">physical inactivity that is prevalent</a> in society today. Furthermore, the concept embraces much more than physical competence, since circus arts also have beneficial physiological and emotional effects. </p>
<h2>Psychological and emotional benefits</h2>
<p>Results showed that learning circus is an opportunity to develop social skills, <a href="https://www.americancircuseducators.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/McCutcheon-Thesis-2003-Identity-thru-Risk.pdf">improve risk-taking</a> judgment, <a href="https://www.wesleyschool.org/uploaded/faculty/Mr_Funt/Why_Circus_Works.pdf">align individuals’ projected and actual selves</a> and enhance <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/2336259591?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true">problem solving</a>, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1440-1630.2007.00713.x">creativity, self esteem</a> and perseverance. </p>
<p>An important component of circus is the “meaning-making” or “art-making” by doing. Students can expand their understanding of their own experience and the environment around them by creating meaning or art.</p>
<p>The results indicated a clear association between <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2019.00346">resilience and physical literacy</a> in circus arts instruction in Canada. Resilience refers to the ability of one or more systems (for example, a child, a family, a school) to overcome, adapt to and successfully withstand adversity. Another small-scale study reported that circus increases <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/fez091">resilience in refugees</a>. </p>
<p>The link between physical literacy and resilience could have significant implications for improving curriculum in the schools. Encouraging physical literacy may help ensure that people will thrive and engage with society. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two children performing aerial circus arts: on climbing a blue rope and one on a suspended hoop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412302/original/file-20210720-27-168130o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Circus arts promote physical health and therefore a healthy lifestyle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">( © Marie-Andrée Lemire, École nationale de cirque, 2019)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Social circus</h2>
<p>Social circus is defined by the use of circus arts as media for social justice and social good. The goal is to foster the psychological and social development of youths who are marginalized or at social or personal risk. For example, <a href="https://www.cirquedusoleil.com/citizenship/community">Cirque du Monde, Cirque du Soleil’s social circus program</a>, operates in more than 80 communities and 25 countries worldwide. The program promotes physical health and therefore a healthy lifestyle. It helps to <a href="https://www.cfp.ca/content/60/11/e548.long">build self-esteem and create skills that result in healthier communities</a>. </p>
<p>Social circus has been found not only to promote health but also health equity and the social changes needed to sustain it. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cdj/bsx015">Researchers Jennifer Spiegel and Stephanie Parent studied social circus among youths with marginalized lifestyles in Québec</a>. They found that personal growth is associated with change in social inclusion and community building. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17533015.2014.932292">Spiegel and other colleagues from Canada and Ecuador also studied Ecuador’s national social circus projects</a>. They investigated how and why circus is being deployed as an “art for social change” as well as its impacts. They found that social circus programs not only contribute to personal well-being, but also promote social support and inclusivity. These programs help establish <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2018.1504102">future policies and institutions that contribute to social development</a>. </p>
<p>Many individuals and researchers throughout the world have begun to realize the unimaginable potential of circus arts. Providing circus opportunities to young people as well as studying their benefits are two key actions to explore that potential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marion Cossin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Teaching circus arts — from juggling to trapeze — in physical education classes increased children’s physical literacy, resilience and participation, with greater gender equity.
Marion Cossin, ingénieure de recherche en cirque, Université de Montréal
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/148912
2020-10-27T23:08:14Z
2020-10-27T23:08:14Z
One quarter of Australian 11-12 year olds don’t have the literacy and numeracy skills they need
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365721/original/file-20201027-18-18r807h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kids-fun-children-playful-happiness-retro-419142034">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Children from disadvantaged backgrounds, very remote areas, and Indigenous Australians are up to two times more likely to start school developmentally vulnerable than the national average.</p>
<p>In 2018, 21.7% of Australian five year olds (70,308 children) were not developmentally ready when they started school. And in Year 7, nearly 25% of students (72,419) didn’t have the required numeracy and literacy skills.</p>
<p>Our report, <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/educational-opportunity-in-australia-2020.pdf">Educational Opportunity in Australia 2020</a>, is the first to examine Australia’s performance against the goals set out in the <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/documents/alice-springs-mparntwe-education-declaration">Alice Springs (Mparntwe) Declaration</a>, a national statement agreed to by Australian education ministers in 2019. </p>
<p>The statement aims for a quality education system for all young people, that supports them to be creative and confident individuals, successful learners and active and informed members of the community.</p>
<p>But our report finds students’ location and family circumstances continue to play a strong role in determining outcomes from school entry to adulthood.</p>
<p>While this crisis in educational inequality isn’t new, it’s likely to get a lot worse, as COVID-19 <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/schooling/children-living-in-employment-stressed-households-double">increases levels</a> of student vulnerability and remote learning <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/schooling/impact-of-learning-from-home-for-disadvantaged-children">widens gaps in achievement</a>.</p>
<h2>Disadvantaged children missing out as school progresses</h2>
<p>The Alice Springs declaration sets two ambitious goals: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>the Australian education system promotes excellence and equity. In part, this is about ensuring all young Australians have access to high-quality education, inclusive and free from any form of discrimination</p></li>
<li><p>all young Australians become confident and creative individuals, successful lifelong learners, and active and informed members of the community. This includes all children having a sense of self-worth, self-awareness and personal identity that enables them to manage their emotional, mental, cultural, spiritual and physical well-being.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The declaration was signed last year, and builds on previous ones signed in Hobart, Adelaide and Melbourne over three decades. It recognises the role education plays in preparing young people to contribute meaningfully to social, economic and cultural life.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-melbourne-declaration-on-educational-goals-for-young-australians-what-it-is-and-why-it-needs-updating-107895">The Melbourne Declaration on Educational Goals for Young Australians: what it is and why it needs updating</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our report uses the best available data to paint a comprehensive picture of Australia’s performance against the above important goals. </p>
<p>It shows the gap in academic learning as well as other key areas, such as creativity and confidence, is clear from school entry and usually grows over time. </p>
<p>Analysis in our report tracked students’ learning from when they started school in 2009 to when they were in Year 5 in 2014. It showed that in literacy and numeracy for instance, the gap between the proportion of children from the most disadvantaged and advantaged families meeting relevant standards grew from 20.6 percentage points at school entry to 27.2 percentage points in Year 5.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="hf0z1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hf0z1/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>The report also shows too many students in the senior years of school are not developing key skills. In 2018, 27.8% of 15 year olds (88,314) didn’t meet or exceed the international benchmark standards in maths, reading and science.</p>
<p>While some students receive the support they need to catch up to their peers, many don’t.</p>
<p>A lot of young people are also not developing the qualities needed to confidently adapt to challenges in adulthood and contribute to their communities. </p>
<p>The report shows that in 2017, 28.1% (110,410) of 23 year olds were not confident in themselves or the future and 29.9% were not adaptable to change and open to new ideas. It shows 38.1% (145,056) of 23 year olds were not actively engaged in their community and 33.2% were not keeping informed about current affairs.</p>
<p>Additionally, many young Australians are not being well prepared and supported to find and secure meaningful employment. Overall, according to the 2016 census, nearly 30% of 24 year olds (112,695) weren’t in full-time education, training or work. </p>
<p>Around half of all 24 year old Indigenous Australians, and one in three of the most disadvantaged Australians, were not engaged in any work or education, compared to 15% nationally.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="GTsVZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GTsVZ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>This failure to address educational inequality reproduces and amplifies existing poverty across generations. It saps productivity, undermines social cohesion and costs governments and communities <a href="http://vuir.vu.edu.au/33523/1/Counting-the-costs-of-lost-opportunity-in-Australian-education.pdf">billions of dollars</a>.</p>
<p>On an individual level, it hampers young people’s search for secure employment and is connected to <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044628">poorer health and lower quality of life</a>.</p>
<h2>What should we do?</h2>
<p>There are no quick ways to fix educational inequality, but there are several key improvements that will make a difference.</p>
<p>Closing gaps in participation and lifting the quality of early childhood education services — particularly in disadvantaged communities where <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/early-childhood-education/quality-is-key-in-early-childhood-education-in-australia">services tend to be lower quality</a> — should be one of our highest priorities. Early childhood education is critical to giving every child the best possible start. <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/educational-opportunity-in-australia-2020.pdf">Evidence shows</a> preschool raises children’s chances of being developmentally ready for school in key areas by around 12 percentage points.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/preschool-benefits-all-children-but-not-all-children-get-it-heres-what-the-government-can-do-about-that-117660">Preschool benefits all children, but not all children get it. Here's what the government can do about that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Despite efforts through the Gonski reforms, there is still significant room to improve how Australia targets funding and support to schools with the highest level of need. We need to address the imbalance in resources between advantaged and disadvantaged Australian schools, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/916-Commonwealth-Orange-Book-2019.pdf">which is the worst in the OECD</a>.</p>
<p>This is not just about money, but building strong leadership and teaching capability in every school. High quality teaching is proven to be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272775709001289">critical to improving student outcomes</a>. We also need to support <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/why-it-is-time-to-target-teaching-to-the-needs-of-every-australian-child/">high quality use of data and assessment</a> to tailor teaching to students’ needs, provide feedback and measure progress.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-quality-teachers-in-disadvantaged-schools-and-keep-them-there-71622">How to get quality teachers in disadvantaged schools – and keep them there</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Government projections show <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentProjections">90% of employment growth in the next four years</a> will require education beyond school. This means we must prepare young people for an economy requiring higher levels of skill than ever. We need to rethink existing models of tertiary education to make it accessible to all students.</p>
<p>Addressing educational inequality is as much about <a href="https://growingupinaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/asr2014.pdf">what happens outside the classroom as inside</a>. Nurturing every child’s development and well-being is best achieved through a partnership between schools, families, communities and other support services.</p>
<p>Australia cannot afford education systems that fail so many students. That’s not just in economic terms – because the cost of lost opportunity is even greater down the track – but also in human terms. We know the social and health costs of disengaging in education are significant.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Our report examines Australia’s educational performance against equity and excellence benchmarks. It finds the inequality gap is large and growing.
Sergio Macklin, Deputy Lead of Education Policy, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University
Sarah Pilcher, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/146998
2020-10-13T18:47:37Z
2020-10-13T18:47:37Z
That advice to women to ‘lean in’, be more confident… it doesn’t help, and data show it
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363076/original/file-20201013-21-1idp129.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=172%2C34%2C1246%2C657&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lean In, by Sheryl Sandberg</span> </figcaption></figure><p>“Just be more confident, be more ambitious, be more like a man.”</p>
<p>These are the words of advice given over and over to women in a bid to close the career and earnings gaps between women and men.</p>
<p>From self-help books to confidence coaching, the message to “lean in” and show confidence in the workplace is pervasive, propelled by Facebook Executive Sheryl Sandberg through her worldwide <a href="https://leanin.org/">Lean In</a> movement:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Women are hindered by barriers that exist within ourselves. We hold ourselves back in ways both big and small, by lacking self-confidence, by not raising our hands, and by pulling back when we should be leaning in</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The efforts are well intended, because women are persistently <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/topics/women-in-leadership">underrepresented</a> in senior and leadership positions. </p>
<p>But where is the proof they work?</p>
<h2>Repeated advice needn’t be right</h2>
<p>As a labour economist, and a recipient of such advice throughout my own career, I wanted to find out. </p>
<p>So I used Australian survey data to investigate the link between confidence and job promotion for both men and women. The results have just been published in the <a href="https://businesslaw.curtin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2020/08/127098-AJLE-Vol-23-No-1-2020-Text_article-3-final.pdf">Australian Journal of Labour Economics</a>.</p>
<p>The nationally-representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (<a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda">HILDA</a>) survey includes a measure of a person’s confidence to take on a challenge. </p>
<p>The measure is called <a href="https://www.apa.org/pubs/books/4320365">achievement motivation</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-into-a-headwind-what-it-feels-like-for-women-building-science-careers-102259">'Walking into a headwind' – what it feels like for women building science careers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is made up of <a href="https://businesslaw.curtin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2020/08/127098-AJLE-Vol-23-No-1-2020-Text_article-3-final.pdf">hope for success</a> which we measure by asking people how much they agree with statements such as </p>
<ul>
<li><p>when confronted by a difficult problem, I prefer to start on it straight away</p></li>
<li><p>I like situations where I can find out how capable I am</p></li>
<li><p>I am attracted to tasks that allow me to test my abilities</p></li>
</ul>
<p>And it is made up of <a href="https://businesslaw.curtin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2020/08/127098-AJLE-Vol-23-No-1-2020-Text_article-3-final.pdf">fear of failure</a> which is measured by a person’s agreement with statements such as</p>
<ul>
<li><p>I start feeling anxious if I do not understand a problem immediately</p></li>
<li><p>In difficult situations where a lot depends on me, I am afraid of failing</p></li>
<li><p>I feel uneasy about undertaking a task if I am unsure of succeeding</p></li>
</ul>
<p>More than 7,500 workers provided answers to these questions in the 2013 HILDA survey.</p>
<h2>Confidence matters, with a catch</h2>
<p>Using a statistical technique called Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition I investigated the link between their answers and whether or not they experienced a promotion in the following year. </p>
<p>After controlling for a range of factors, including the job opportunities on offer, I discovered higher hope for success was clearly linked to a higher likelihood of promotion.</p>
<p>But there was a catch: the link was only clear for men.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gender-differences-at-work-relishing-competence-or-seeking-a-challenge-100587">Gender differences at work: relishing competence or seeking a challenge?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For women, there was no clear evidence stronger confidence enhanced job promotion prospects. </p>
<p>Put differently, “leaning in” provides no guarantee of a payoff for women.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Promotion rate for men and women by hope for success</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363106/original/file-20201013-13-1cm3aci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Promotion probabilities are estimated for 2013 using hope for success responses.
collected in 2012. Categories at the lower levels are grouped due to small sample sizes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://businesslaw.curtin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2020/08/127098-AJLE-Vol-23-No-1-2020-Text_article-3-final.pdf">Source: Author’s analysis using the HILDA Survey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Personality traits reveal further gender patterns.</p>
<p>Men who display boldness and charisma, reflected by high extraversion, also experience a stronger likelihood of promotion. As do men who display the attitude that whatever happens to them in life is a result of their own choices and efforts, a trait we call “locus of control”.</p>
<p>But again there is no link between any of these traits and the promotion prospects for women.</p>
<p>Collectively these findings point to a disturbing template for career success: be confident, be ambitious… and be male. </p>
<h2>Be male and unafraid</h2>
<p>This template for promotion also prescribes: don’t show fear of failure. Among managers, though not among workers as a whole, fear of failure is linked to weaker job promotion prospects — but more profoundly for men than women. </p>
<p>This echoes the way society penalises male leaders for revealing emotional weakness. Both men and women are hindered by gender norms.</p>
<p>So what’s the harm in confidence training?</p>
<p>For women, it could do <a href="https://theconversation.com/gap-or-trap-confidence-backlash-is-the-real-problem-for-women-27718">more harm than good</a>. In a culture that does not value such attributes among women, contravening expected patterns carries risks. </p>
<h2>‘Fixing’ women is itself a problem</h2>
<p>Imploring women to adopt behaviours that characterise successful men creates a culture that paints women as “deficient” and devalues <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-diverse-teams-are-smarter">diverse</a> working styles.</p>
<p>A fixation on <a href="https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/stop-fixing-women/">fixing women</a> — without proof it pays off — steers resources away from <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/07/designing-a-bias-free-organization">anti-discrimination initiatives</a> that could actually make a difference. </p>
<p>In any case there is very little evidence confidence makes good workers. Overconfident workers can be <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x">liabilities</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gap-or-trap-confidence-backlash-is-the-real-problem-for-women-27718">Gap or trap? Confidence backlash is the real problem for women </a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Workplaces would be served better by basing their hiring and promotion decisions on competency and capability rather than confidence and charisma.</p>
<p>My study is one of a <a href="https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/stop-fixing-women/">steadily</a> <a href="https://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/awards/ashurst-business-literature-prize/2017-shortlisted-stop-fixing-women">growing number</a> suggesting gender equity shouldn’t be about changing women, it should be about changing workplaces.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146998/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leonora Risse is affiliated with the Women in Economics Network and the Economic Society of Australia.</span></em></p>
Confidence matters for men’s job promotion prospects.
But for women, it’s a different story.
Leonora Risse, Lecturer in Economics, RMIT University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/144170
2020-09-28T12:22:11Z
2020-09-28T12:22:11Z
Women equal men in computing skill, but are less confident
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357243/original/file-20200909-22-njtus5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C7360%2C4869&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Studies show women are perfectly capable of getting the job done.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/she-has-data-management-all-taken-care-of-royalty-free-image/1055056898">Dean Mitchell/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>In the workplace, women are now as good as men when it comes to computing performance, but there is still a gender gap when it comes to confidence, according to our new research.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gRlnlTIAAAAJ&hl=en">professors</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=GL7KSNkAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&gmla=AJsN-F4zOLZSu0odQi5t-MQgRvBc4bh-e_HJMfczDVCjw5FT31o9zRttWRIB-TV1XfU1nW7Ap2XqGQ_4SCeYnAcS9DrdKIsRnXlKNF0jbykCgtS3bThJS1Mwe">of business</a>, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08874417.2020.1717397">studied how well men and women</a> in midlevel business jobs performed on computing tasks. We also asked them to rate how they thought they did. </p>
<p>Study participants were randomly assigned basic, intermediate or advanced problems on laptops, tablets or mobile devices, while seated, standing or walking slowly. </p>
<p>We found no difference in the performance between men and women in the total number of questions answered correctly or the time taken to answer the questions. In only one scenario did men perform slightly better – while completing a basic task, on a tablet, while seated (76.3% correct for men versus 64% correct for women). Otherwise, women and men performed equally.</p>
<p>There was a statistically significant difference, however, in how men and women rated their own performance. Women were less confident of their answers in all scenarios – 3.5 for women versus 3.88 for men on a scale of 1 to 5 – despite having performed equally to men in all but one.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two professional women discussing code on a computer screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357313/original/file-20200909-22-tx6j27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The percentage of women in tech is still pitifully low.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/coworkers-discussing-computer-program-in-office-royalty-free-image/1180183363">Luis Alvarez/Digital Vision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>With a rapid expansion of employment in STEM areas, the shortage of qualified labor has risen to the level of <a href="https://www.aip.org/fyi/2019/panel-warns-us-faces-stem-workforce-supply-challenges">national importance</a>. Yet the proportion of <a href="https://ngcproject.org/ngcp-publications-0">women in STEM careers remains around 24%</a> even though women make up almost 50% of the overall workforce. The causes of this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2016.1257306">gender gap</a> are often attributed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-tech-field-failed-a-25-year-challenge-to-achieve-gender-equality-by-2020-culture-change-is-key-to-getting-on-track-144779">cultural and institutional biases against women in technology fields</a>, and <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED523766.pdf">governments and other institutions</a> have made significant efforts to reduce this gap. </p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>No one knows for sure why women with demonstrably the same computing skills as men are less confident. This lack of confidence has been found in other STEM-related areas. For example, one study of university students found that among men and women who performed equally well in mathematics courses, <a href="http://genderandset.open.ac.uk/index.php/genderandset/article/view/452">women perceived themselves to be significantly worse at math</a> than their male counterparts. Another study that focused on the adoption of mobile learning technology shows, while the gender gap has all but disappeared, there is still a significant gap when it comes to <a href="http://genderandset.open.ac.uk/index.php/genderandset/article/viewFile/446/811">how women perceive their confidence with this technology</a> versus how men perceive it. Some research found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2980783.2980785">technical skills were more consistently stereotyped by both men and women</a> than were nontechnical skills. Further research is needed to explore the reasons for lack of female confidence so that effective mitigation approaches can be put in place.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Many have <a href="https://www.ncwit.org/sites/default/files/legacy/pdf/NCWIT_TheFacts_rev2010.pdf">made the case that</a> companies need better participation of women in the STEM workforce <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MC.2013.97">for greater innovation and productivity</a>. These efforts have had some success, but other avenues are needed to promote STEM careers to women and help them to believe in their abilities.</p>
<p>To address this issue, secondary schools and universities are promoting <a href="https://www.iwitts.org/">computing careers to young women</a>, while tech companies have made concerted efforts to promote and hire more women for high-profile jobs involving technology.</p>
<p>We will continue to work on understanding how to narrow the gender gap and explore ways to increase female participation in computer fields.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The gender gap in computing performance has dramatically narrowed, but a confidence gap remains.
Matthew J. Liberatore, John F. Connelly Chair in Management at the Villanova School of Business, Villanova University
William Wagner, Associate Professor of Accountancy & Information Systems, Villanova University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/140129
2020-07-29T12:20:18Z
2020-07-29T12:20:18Z
As the NBA and MLB resume, how might empty seats influence player performances?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349670/original/file-20200727-35-141iuq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5441%2C3633&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager warms up as cutouts of fans 'look on.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Giants-Dodgers-Baseball/82fc086de8444f97b90abdf7e72261cd/10/0">AP Photo/Jae C. Hong</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Baseball and basketball might be returning, but the <a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=boo%20birds">boo birds</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0O88TQQ--o">thunder sticks</a> will have to wait ‘til next year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29530941/source-blue-jays-play-home-games-buffalo">Save for the Toronto Blue Jays</a>, baseball teams have begun playing in their regular stadiums without fans. Meanwhile, all NBA games will be played inside the <a href="https://africa.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29520530/the-very-best-nba-bubble-activities">Orlando bubble</a> before empty crowds.</p>
<p><a href="https://csunsportpsychlab.wordpress.com">For sport psychology researchers like me</a>, this is an extremely rare opportunity: We can see what happens when fans disappear for an extended period of time. Almost like a controlled experiment, it will be possible to compare the outcomes of games with and without fans, with all other things being approximately equal. We’ll even be able to compare fan-less home stadium games, like those starting up in baseball, to fan-less neutral site games, like in the NBA.</p>
<p>For these reasons, it might be possible to see the extent to which fans and stadiums play a role in an oft-debated aspect of sport psychology: home field advantage.</p>
<h2>Home sweet home</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-really-causes-home-field-advantage-and-why-its-on-the-decline-126086">Despite evidence that it’s diminished a bit over time</a>, the advantage of playing at home – whether on a field, court or ice – is definitely real.</p>
<p>In 2019, <a href="https://www.nfl.com/standings/">52% of NFL games</a> were won by home teams. In the NBA, prior to the pandemic pause, <a href="https://www.nba.com/standings">55% of games were won</a> by the team playing at home.</p>
<p>In college sports, the advantage for the home team can be even more stark. SEC conference football games were won by home teams <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sec/2019-schedule.html">61% of the time</a> in 2019. For the ACC conference in men’s basketball in 2020, <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/acc/2020-schedule.html">it was 63%</a>.</p>
<p>And yet the source of that advantage has never really been identified. Analysts have attributed it to a variety of factors. Some say <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/01/24/study-finds-jet-lag-for-mlb-players-enough-to-erase-the-home-field-advantage/">the away team struggles because of travel fatigue</a>. Others think it’s because <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2012/10/18/home-field-advantage-is-real-but-its-not-because-of-the-12th-man/">the home team has a certain familiarity with the field</a> – the playing surface in football or the park dimensions in baseball. Some claim <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-really-causes-home-field-advantage-and-why-its-on-the-decline-126086">it’s because the referees and umpires are influenced by the crowd</a> and are thus biased in favor of the home team, or that <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp8105.pdf">stadium sounds and a jeering crowd can get in the heads of opposing players</a>.</p>
<p>Psychology researchers have also puzzled over the cause of home field advantage. </p>
<p>Psychologist Robert Zajonc <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1715944?seq=1">proposed a theory called social facilitation</a>, whereby a performer’s “arousal” increases in the presence of others. In this context, arousal means that you care more about what you’re doing when you’re being watched. For athletes, it implies that they’ll be more motivated when there’s a crowd. And if the crowd is supportive, this might “facilitate” a better performance from the athlete. </p>
<p>But since then, others have <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Routledge_Companion_to_Sport_and_Exercis/1zUsAwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">reported</a> that the effects of social facilitation in studies of sports have tended to be weak. And there are some who <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-really-causes-home-field-advantage-and-why-its-on-the-decline-126086">believe that the crowd has nothing at all to do with performance</a>.</p>
<h2>Home field advantage on pause?</h2>
<p>We’ll have to see what happens over the course of the baseball and basketball seasons. But <a href="https://www.soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=germany">the Bundesliga</a>, Germany’s top soccer league, began playing without fans back in the middle of May, and players have noted that something seems to be missing during these games.</p>
<p>“The stadium is always full at Bayern, and it’s really amazing,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/soccer/bayerns-kimmich-less-emotional-but-calmer-in-fan-free-games/2020/06/04/bc43e862-a65e-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html">Bayern Munich midfielder Joshua Kimmich said</a>. “You feel more when you score a goal. It’s more emotional when there are fans.”</p>
<p>I know from <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/jsep/31/5/article-p583.xml">my own research</a> that heightened emotions aren’t necessarily helpful. They can cause you to overthink a situation or become nervous. But they can also improve performance if you’re feeling particularly in control and confident. The latter feelings can, in fact, lead to better-than-usual, clutch performance.</p>
<p>So what happens if we remove the fans in the stands, but everything else stays about the same? </p>
<p>Before the pandemic, Bundesliga home teams had won 107 games, lost 100 and tied 63 times. Excluding the ties, this win-loss percentage for home teams – 52% – was comparable to those in other leagues, translating to a modest home-field advantage.</p>
<p>When play resumed without fans, Bundesliga home teams fell apart for the first six weeks: Their win-loss percentage was an embarrassing 29%. Outlets like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/sports/soccer/soccer-without-fans-germany-data.html">The New York Times</a> and <a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/german-bundesliga/story/4107639/bundesliga-suggests-home-advantage-a-thing-of-the-past-in-empty-stadiums">ESPN</a> noticed, and ran articles wondering if, without fans, home-field advantage had vanished.</p>
<p>But then the results started to shift in mid-June. Over the final three weeks of the season, Bundesliga home teams’ winning percentage surged to 63%. </p>
<p>Right around then, the other European leagues began play. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england">England’s Premier League</a> home team winning percentage before the pandemic was 60%; since restarting, their success rate has been nearly identical: 59%. Before the break and with fans, <a href="https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=spain">Spain’s La Liga</a> home teams’ win-loss rate was 66%; afterward, it’s been a respectable 56%. Home teams in Italy’s <a href="https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=italy">Serie A</a> have actually been more successful so far without fans – 57% – as compared with before, when they won 52% of home games before packed stadiums.</p>
<p>It seems the early struggles of home teams in the Bundesliga were more of an outlier.</p>
<h2>It’s all a matter of perception</h2>
<p>So maybe outlets were too quick to attribute home-field advantage solely to the presence of the fans. Based on this preliminary data out of Europe, the advantage seems to be preserved, even in empty stadiums. </p>
<p>Could it be that even without fans, players still believe they have an edge at home?</p>
<p>Sport psychologists have studied how athletes’ perceptions of their environment can influence performance. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="German soccer players fight for the ball in an empty stadium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349681/original/file-20200727-23-3x46f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A June soccer match between FC Cologne and Eintracht Frankfurt during the German Bundesliga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Germany-Soccer-Bundesliga/612a315acd614363b308826d2db46308/2/0">Rolf Vennenbernd/Pool via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://web.b.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=01627341&AN=3016204&h=MKjmtwkiDlbNqPQ6y4BUGwu%2f31V4VG83uLuVe%2bZqxcfPq05e7P2t7Li38FyeUtv%2bL0ygG5olevmSLn2CdPG%2bog%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d01627341%26AN%3d3016204">A survey by psychologists of female college basketball players</a> suggests that athletes perceive their team’s collective efficacy – or confidence as a group – to be greater at home.</p>
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<p>So it’s entirely possible that players interpret their home stadium environment as more comfortable, regardless of whether or not there’s a crowd. This perception leads to more confidence among the players at home, which may be the root cause of the home advantage.</p>
<p>In other words, the advantage might not necessarily come from the cheers or the refs. It’s simply the belief that playing at home makes you play better that gives you an edge.</p>
<p>Back when the Premier League was considering a plan to restart the league at neutral sites instead of home stadiums, <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/soccer-watford-chief-opposed-premier-095918729.html">Watford CEO Scott Duxbury objected</a> to the proposal. “We are now told we cannot play our remaining home games at Vicarage Road and the familiarity and advantage that brings,” he complained.</p>
<p>Maybe Duxbury was right about the advantage of familiarity, after all – even when there are no fans in the seats.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on August 10, 2020 to reflect new results from the European soccer leagues mentioned.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Otten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
It will be possible to compare the outcomes of games with and without fans, giving new insights into the relationship between fans, home-field advantage and clutch performances.
Mark Otten, Professor of Psychology, California State University, Northridge
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/112207
2019-03-07T11:38:39Z
2019-03-07T11:38:39Z
Artificial intelligence must know when to ask for human help
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261723/original/file-20190301-110143-sx0ttx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=742%2C0%2C7245%2C3900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sometimes the questions become too much for artificial intelligence systems.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/white-robot-on-blurred-background-using-1180864012">sdecoret/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence systems are powerful tools for businesses and governments to process data and respond to changing situations, whether <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/17/investing/artificial-intelligence-investors-machine-learning/index.html">on the stock market</a> or <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/artificial-intelligence-and-future-warfare">on a battlefield</a>. But there are still some things AI isn’t ready for.</p>
<p>We are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fkGi-JMAAAAJ&hl=en">scholars of</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-PWcE1YAAAAJ&hl=en">computer science</a> <a href="https://dblp.org/pers/hd/s/Scheffler:Sarah">working to understand</a> and improve the ways in which algorithms interact with society. AI systems perform best when the goal is clear and there is high-quality data, like when they are asked to distinguish between different faces after learning from many pictures of correctly identified people.</p>
<p>Sometimes AI systems do so well that users and observers are surprised at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26094">how perceptive</a> the technology is. However, sometimes success is <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/break-hate-speech-algorithm-try-love/">difficult to measure</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3287560.3287593">defined incorrectly</a>, or the training data <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/technology/facial-recognition-race-artificial-intelligence.html">does not match the task at hand</a>. In these cases, AI algorithms tend to fail in <a href="http://aiweirdness.com/post/172894792687/when-algorithms-surprise-us">unpredictable and spectacular ways</a>, though it’s <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2477899">not always immediately obvious</a> that something has even gone wrong. As a result, it’s important to be wary of the hype and excitement about what AI can do, and not assume the solution it finds is always correct.</p>
<p>When algorithms are at work, there should be a human safety net to prevent harming people. Our research demonstrated that in some situations algorithms can recognize problems in how they’re operating, and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.02003">ask for human help</a>. Specifically, we show, asking for human help can help alleviate algorithmic bias in some settings. </p>
<h2>How sure is the algorithm?</h2>
<p>Artificial intelligence systems are being used in <a href="https://epic.org/algorithmic-transparency/crim-justice/">criminal sentencing</a>, <a href="https://www.faception.com/">facial-based personality profiling</a>, <a href="https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/machine-learning-for-recruiting-and-hiring/">resume screening</a>, <a href="https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=3287593">health care enrollment</a> and other difficult tasks where people’s lives and well-being are at stake. U.S. government agencies are beginning to ramp up their exploration and use of AI systems, in response to a recent <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-maintaining-american-leadership-artificial-intelligence/">executive order from President Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<p>It’s important to remember, though, that AI can cement misconceptions in how a task is addressed, or magnify existing inequalities. This can happen even when no one told the algorithm explicitly to treat anyone differently.</p>
<p>For instance, many companies have algorithms that try to determine features about a person by their face – say to <a href="https://theconversation.com/gender-is-personal-not-computational-90798">guess their gender</a>. The systems developed by U.S. companies tend to do significantly <a href="https://www.media.mit.edu/projects/gender-shades/overview/">better at categorizing white men</a> than they do women and darker-skinned people; they do worst at dark-skinned women. Systems developed in China, however, tend to <a href="https://www.nist.gov/publications/other-race-effect-face-recognition-algorithms-0">do worse on white faces</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261724/original/file-20190301-110110-dfz1wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biased training data can make systems better, or worse, at recognizing certain kinds of faces.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-young-businesspeople-face-recognized-intellectual-1103731769">Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The difference is not because one group has faces that are easier to classify than others. Rather, both algorithms are typically trained on a large collection of data that’s not as diverse as the overall human population. If the data set is dominated by a particular type of face – white men in the U.S., and Chinese faces in China – then the algorithm will probably do better at analyzing those faces than others.</p>
<p>No matter how the difference arises, the result is that algorithms can be biased by being more accurate on one group than on another.</p>
<h2>Keeping a human eye on AI</h2>
<p>For high-stakes situations, the algorithm’s confidence in its own result – its estimation of how likely it is that the system came up with the right answer – is just as important as the result itself. The people who receive the output from algorithms need to know how seriously to take the results, rather than assuming that it’s correct because it involved a computer.</p>
<p>Only recently have researchers begun to develop ways to identify, much less attempt to fix, <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612876/this-is-how-ai-bias-really-happensand-why-its-so-hard-to-fix/">inequalities in algorithms and data</a>. Algorithms can be programmed to recognize their own shortcomings – and follow that recognition with a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.02003">request for a person to assist with the task</a>.</p>
<p>Many types of AI algorithms already calculate an internal <a href="https://innodata.com/blog/feedback-loops-confidence-metrics/">confidence level</a> – a prediction of how well it did at analyzing a particular piece of input. In facial analysis, many AI algorithms <a href="https://www.viacom.com/news/combat-ai-biases">have lower confidence</a> on darker faces and female faces than for white male faces. <a href="https://www.aclu.org/blog/privacy-technology/surveillance-technologies/amazons-face-recognition-falsely-matched-28">It’s</a> <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/thoughts-on-machine-learning-accuracy/">unclear</a> how much this has been taken into account by law enforcement for high-stakes uses of these algorithms.</p>
<p>The goal is for the AI itself to locate the areas where it is not reaching the same accuracy for different groups. On these inputs, the AI can defer its decision to a human moderator. This technique is especially well-suited for context-heavy tasks like <a href="https://blog.nanonets.com/nsfw-content-moderation-in-2019-humans-vs-ai/">content moderation</a>. </p>
<p>Human content moderators <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/25/18229714/cognizant-facebook-content-moderator-interviews-trauma-working-conditions-arizona">cannot keep up with</a> the flood of images being posted on social media sites. But AI content moderation is famous for failing to take into account the context behind a post – misidentifying discussions of sexual orientation as <a href="https://twitter.com/TwitterSupport/status/927758282076258304">explicit content</a>, or identifying the Declaration of Independence as <a href="https://wccftech.com/facebook-declaration-of-independence-hate-speech/">hate speech</a>. This can end up inaccurately censoring one <a href="https://twitter.com/TwitterSupport/status/927758282076258304">demographic</a> or <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2018/05/03/facebook-pledges-investigate-charges-bias-against-conservatives/574505002/">political</a> group over another.</p>
<p>To get the best of both worlds, <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.02003">our research</a> suggests scoring all content in an automated fashion, using the same AI methods already common today. Then our approach uses newly proposed techniques to automatically locate potential inequalities in the accuracy of the algorithm on different protected groups of people, and to hand over the decisions about certain individuals to a human. As a result, the algorithm can be completely unbiased about those people on which it actually decides. And humans decide on those individuals where algorithmic decision would have inevitably created bias. </p>
<p>This approach does not eliminate bias: It just “concentrates” the potential for bias on a smaller set of decisions, which are then handled by people, using human common sense. The AI can still perform the bulk of the decision-making work. </p>
<p>This is a demonstration of a situation where an AI algorithm working together with a human can reap the benefits and efficiency of the AI’s good decisions, without being locked into its bad ones. Humans will then have more time to work on the fuzzy, difficult decisions that are critical to ensuring fairness and equity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Scheffler receives funding from the Clare Boothe Luce Fellowship and from the Modular Approach to Cloud Security project (NSF Frontier grant CNS-1414119).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Smith receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the US Census Bureau, and the Sloan Foundation. In the past he has received funding for related work from a Google Faculty Award.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ran Canetti receives funding from the National Science Foundation and from the Israeli Science Foundation. He is faculty at Boston Unversity and at Tel Aviv University.</span></em></p>
When algorithms are at work, there should be a human safety net to prevent harming people. Artificial intelligence systems can be taught to ask for help.
Sarah Scheffler, Ph.D. Student in Computer Science, Boston University
Adam D. Smith, Professor of Computer Science, Boston University
Ran Canetti, Professor of Computer Science, Boston University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/105109
2018-11-27T11:41:11Z
2018-11-27T11:41:11Z
The key to fixing the gender gap in math and science: Boost women’s confidence
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246490/original/file-20181120-161633-uo02kp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Girls who are more confident in their math skills are more likely to pursue math-intensive degrees. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/students-class-174265457?src=PZezSUO7ZmyHLj8f90AGZA-1-3">Areipa.lt/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The gender gap in <a href="https://www.nctm.org/Publications/Teaching-Children-Mathematics/Blog/Current-Research-on-Gender-Differences-in-Math/">math</a> and <a href="http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/women-science">science</a> isn’t going away. Women remain less likely to enroll in math-heavy fields of study and pursue math-heavy careers. This pattern persists despite major studies finding <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/a0021276">no meaningful differences in mathematics performance</a> among girls and boys. </p>
<p>Among U.S. students who score the same on math achievement tests, girls are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00386">less confident in their math ability</a> than boys are. That confidence predicts who goes on to major in math-heavy fields like <a href="https://www.aauw.org/research/solving-the-equation/">engineering and computer science</a>. The <a href="http://www.tcrecord.org/Content.asp?ContentID=18026">gender gap varies</a> across STEM fields – science, technology, engineering and math. Women <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/a0027020">remain underrepresented</a> in <a href="https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/graduates-pay-2017.aspx">high-earning</a> and <a href="https://www.ed.gov/stem">high-demand</a> fields that require the most math skills, such as engineering and physics. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2018.1486641">My team’s recent study</a> finds women are 12 percent less likely to earn math-heavy STEM degrees than men. </p>
<p><a href="https://perezfelkner.com/research/reset/">My colleagues and I</a> have studied gender gaps in STEM for several years, examining <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/slsp/">U.S. data</a> on teenagers as they move from high school to and through college. Across our studies, we find a consistent pattern: Girls with strong mathematics ability in high school <a href="https://perezfelkner.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/perez-felkner_mcdonald_schneider_highachieving_females_stem_ebook.pdf">do not necessarily leave the sciences entirely</a>, but they <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00530">major in math-heavy fields</a> at significantly lower rates than their otherwise identical male peers.</p>
<p>Here’s the good news: These patterns can change. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00530">In one study</a>, we found that 12th-grade girls with the highest levels of confidence in their mathematics ability with challenging material are more three times more likely to major in math-heavy STEM fields than girls with the lowest levels of confidence. </p>
<h2>Ability beliefs, girls and STEM</h2>
<p>Our findings build not only on our own prior work, but also on decades of research finding girls underrate their abilities on <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0022-3514.59.5.960">tasks</a> and <a href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/gender_and_the_career_choice_process-_the_role_of_biased_self-assessments.pdf">careers</a> that are culturally considered male. </p>
<p><a href="https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/els2002/">Contemporary data</a> on U.S. students who were 10th graders in 2002 and were followed through 2012 show that girls <a href="https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2014/04/girls-grades.aspx">do better in school</a> than boys do and are more likely to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/11/gender-education-gap/546677/">graduate from college</a>. Girls are increasingly prepared for college-level math, thanks to the fact that they take more <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED509653.pdf">STEM courses in high school</a>, even in <a href="https://medium.com/@codeorg/girls-set-ap-computer-science-record-skyrocketing-growth-outpaces-boys-41b7c01373a5">computer science</a>.</p>
<p>In one of our case studies on computer science undergraduates at two research universities, we found that women were more likely to take further computer science courses if they <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00602">perceived that they had high skills and felt challenged</a>. These findings complement those of our <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00386">national study</a>, which showed that women with positive math ability beliefs were more likely to choose math-heavy STEM majors.</p>
<p>Girls are excelling at math. Still, boys think they can do better. Among those at the 90th percentile of mathematics ability in 12th grade, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00386">boys rate themselves higher</a> than do their female peers. </p>
<h2>Progress failures and promising interventions</h2>
<p>The push toward equity has not just been slow; it at times seems to go in reverse. Emerging research suggests gender gaps in STEM seem wider in <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar2307">more economically developed countries</a> and <a href="https://cepa.stanford.edu/content/gender-achievement-gaps-us-school-districts">more affluent zip codes</a>. Since the personal computing and technology boom, women have been <a href="https://www.aauw.org/research/solving-the-equation/">losing representation among degree earners</a> in computer science.</p>
<p>Among U.S. universities, we found the gender gap in math-heavy fields was widespread, but <a href="http://www.tcrecord.org/Content.asp?ContentID=18026">worse at less selective institutions</a>. And, while the majority of community college students are female, after controlling for student and institutional characteristics, the gender gap in natural and engineering sciences at <a href="https://perezfelkner.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/perez-felkner_etal_2yearcollegesgendergapstemdegrees_2018.pdf">two-year colleges</a> is slightly worse – 12.4 percent more men – than at four-year institutions – 11.7 percent more men than women.</p>
<p>There are signs of promise as <a href="https://anitab.org/braid-building-recruiting-and-inclusion-for-diversity/">institutions collaborate on gender equity</a> and try other interventions, from introductory course redesign to curricular changes aimed at students’ <a href="https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/PracticeGuide/5#tab-summary">beliefs in their abilities</a>. While not directly focused on this issue, organizations may engage in confidence-raising to get girls and women into math-heavy fields like <a href="https://ed.ted.com/featured/16DCJILa">coding</a>.</p>
<p>As someone who has studied this issue closely, I believe those of us interested in gender equity should make female confidence a priority. This includes both directly building up girls’ and women’s confidence and educating influential actors in their lives. Socializing messages and support from mentors, teachers, peers and parents may help counter gendered stereotypes and create spaces for girls to build confidence in their ability to succeed in math and science.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lara Perez-Felkner receives research funding from the National Science Foundation, the Gates Foundation, and the ECMC Foundation.</span></em></p>
High school girls who are more confident in their math abilities are more likely to pursue math in college and beyond.
Lara Perez-Felkner, Assistant Professor of Higher Education and Sociology, Florida State University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/102401
2018-10-08T19:12:03Z
2018-10-08T19:12:03Z
How your birth date influences how well you do in school, and later in life
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235531/original/file-20180910-123104-3prtod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A large body of research has shown students who were relatively old among their peers are more likely become professional sports players.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whether you were born in December, January, August or September can have a significant and long-lasting impact on your life. Our <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl?urn=RePEc%3Aqut%3Aqubewp%3Awp056&url=http%3A%2F%2Fexternal-apps.qut.edu.au%2Fbusiness%2Fdocuments%2FQuBEWorkingPapers%2F2018%2Fpaper_290518.pdf">new research</a> shows your birthday month may also contribute to shaping your personality. In particular, we found people’s self-confidence can significantly differ because of their month of birth.</p>
<p>The reason isn’t your astrological sign, but rather the role your birth date plays in deciding when you enter school. Most countries specify when young children should start school using a cut-off date in the year. </p>
<p>For instance, in the UK the cut-off date is September 1. In federal nations such as Australia or the US, cut-off dates vary between states. Children who turn five by the cut-off date will start school, while children whose birthday is after the cut-off date will still be four and start school the following year. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/youngest-in-class-twice-as-likely-to-take-adhd-medication-71331">Youngest in class twice as likely to take ADHD medication</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>The relative position of your birthday to the school cut-off date has one important consequence: it determines whether throughout primary and secondary school you are among the older, more mature, taller students in the class or not. </p>
<h2>Relative age and career success</h2>
<p>It’s well known that relative age at school can have a long lasting impact. A large <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273229700905161">body of research</a> has shown, for example, students who were relatively old among their peers are more likely to become professional sports players. This pattern is evident across a wide range of sports in many different countries with different cut-off dates: <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/(SICI)1520-6300(1998)10:6%3C791::AID-AJHB10%3E3.0.CO;2-1">soccer</a>, <a href="https://shapeamerica.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02701367.1994.10607644?journalCode=urqe20">ice hockey</a> and <a href="https://shapeamerica.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02640414.2013.847277?casa_token=MAWhPf8n6iMAAAAA:Y9x_JftlKQqYeAuzXlnFecDW-8HVJpLfBFoQzI_d75_KRr0Zu6FrsHj9L62I6BI7ucENMh0eGiLMiqE">AFL</a>.</p>
<p>Famous footballers who were relatively old among their peers include for instance Pep Guardiola, the current manager of Manchester City.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235532/original/file-20180910-123125-1o63cdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a previous study, we found US Congressmen are more likely to have been relatively old among their peers at school.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Studies have also found relatively old students <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12047">do better at school</a>. Even though the advantage tends to decrease over time, they are still slightly more likely to go to university. The long term impact on professional achievement doesn’t seem very large, but in some highly competitive environments, people who were relatively old at school are substantially over-represented. </p>
<p>This is the case among CEOs of large corporations. Previous research found this was also the case among <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl?urn=RePEc%3Abla%3Ajorssa%3Av%3A179%3Ay%3A2016%3Ai%3A3%3Ap%3A809-829&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhdl.handle.net%2F10.1111%2Frssa.12154">leading US politicians</a>.</p>
<h2>The role of self-confidence</h2>
<p>Our research suggests one of the main reasons for this “birthday effect” is the impact of relative age on self-confidence. Recent <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/690714">research</a> shows children who enjoy being ranked relatively high compared to their peers have higher self-confidence. Being relatively old among your peers tends to place you higher in the distribution of achievement. Children who enjoy this throughout childhood can end up being more confident in their aptitude and carry this confidence with them later on.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-to-send-a-child-to-school-causes-anxiety-and-confusion-for-parents-81330">When to send a child to school causes anxiety and confusion for parents</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>To test this idea, we conducted two studies. The first was with Australian school children in years eight to nine (13- to 15-year-olds) born one month apart from the school cut-off date. </p>
<p>We surveyed 661 children about their tendency to take risks and to feel confident. We found <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl?urn=RePEc%3Aeee%3Ajoepsy%3Av%3A63%3Ay%3A2017%3Ai%3Ac%3Ap%3A43-81&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0167487016307231">evidence</a> some of the relatively old boys tended to be more competitive than their peers. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl?urn=RePEc%3Aqut%3Aqubewp%3Awp056&url=http%3A%2F%2Fexternal-apps.qut.edu.au%2Fbusiness%2Fdocuments%2FQuBEWorkingPapers%2F2018%2Fpaper_290518.pdf">second study</a>, we surveyed more than 1,000 Australian adults (24- to 60-year-olds) who were born on different sides of the cut-off date in their state. We found those who had been relatively old at school were more confident in their ability in a task involving simple mathematical calculations. They also indicated they were more willing to take risks in their lives than those who had been relatively young. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238617/original/file-20181001-19021-t2w1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The main impact of the ‘birthday effect’ is on self-confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Policies to mitigate the birthday effect</h2>
<p>In a world where self-confidence and risk-taking is rewarded, these traits can give them an edge. Those who were relatively young may be at a disadvantage. </p>
<p>Understanding the somewhat unexpected effect of birth dates on personality traits is important. It can inform policies to mitigate the relative age effects. </p>
<p>For instance, it can help educators in their assessment and fostering of each child’s potential. In particular, it can help inform the design of curriculum and assessment programs to avoid the unintended penalty imposed on relatively young students who were born before the cut-off date rather than after it. It also means grouping children based on ability across age range may be a better solution than strict age-based classes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lionel Page receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dipanwita Sarkar and Juliana Silva Goncalves do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The reason isn’t your astrological sign, but rather the role your birth date plays in deciding when you enter school. Children who are older than their peers in school tend to do better.
Lionel Page, Professor in Economics, Queensland University of Technology
Dipanwita Sarkar, Senior Lecturer QUT Business School, Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology
Juliana Silva Goncalves, Postdoctoral Research Fellow QUT Business School, Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/102519
2018-09-03T13:14:56Z
2018-09-03T13:14:56Z
Confused about who to believe when information clashes? Our research may help
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234620/original/file-20180903-41711-16yuk3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Information and relationships are increasingly online, which can make it hard to know who to trust.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/charming-beautiful-tan-skin-asian-business-575421832?src=GeGbqJ4lgSQrweKVMNRCEA-3-5">aodaodaodaod/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Just remember, what you are seeing and what you are reading is not what’s happening,” Donald Trump, the president of the United States, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44959300">once said at a rally</a>. There is no doubt that we have entered <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Meaning-Melancholia-Life-Age-Bewilderment/dp/1138497533">a new age of bewilderment</a> in which it is harder than ever before to decide where the truth lies.</p>
<p>Before the explosion of social media, the world seemed an altogether simpler place, with information reaching us via a relatively small number of seemingly trustworthy sources. The rise of social media has generated a cacophony of contradictory information, mixed in with fake news on an industrial scale. Despite this, many people actually consider social media <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2056305118764430">to be more credible</a> and honest than mainstream media. </p>
<p>The social media revolution has also moved many personal relationships online. Just like we used to get our favourite news from a few known sources, we also used to turn to a few friends to ask for advice about difficult decisions. Today we often gather advice via Facebook posts or WhatsApp groups – something that can leave us with a large number of contradictory opinions. It is no wonder that we are <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-much-information-how-a-data-deluge-leaves-us-struggling-to-make-up-our-minds-44674">struggling to make our minds up</a> about what to think these days. But our new research, <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2018-41338-001">published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General</a>, may offer some guidance.</p>
<p>Our study is based on a subtle psychological mechanism called the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0167487094000326">“confidence heuristic”</a> that can prod us in the right direction. A heuristic is a rough-and-ready rule of thumb <a href="http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/escidoc:2102905/component/escidoc:2102904/GG_Fast_1999.pdf">for making a decision</a>, and the confidence heuristic focuses on the confidence with which people express statements. </p>
<p>It is based on a mathematical proof from game theory showing that, if we all express statements with confidence proportional to how sure we are, and if we are swayed by others’ statements according to how confidently they are expressed, then we will end up believing the right answers. Put simply, if people are confident when they think they are right, and if their confidence makes them persuasive, then this may help us to identify what is true.</p>
<h2>Laboratory experiments</h2>
<p>We recently <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2018-41338-001">tested this theory</a> using laboratory experiments. First, 28 pairs of participants tried to identify a perpetrator from a police photo lineup. In each pair, one participant had an “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-FIT">e-fit</a> ”– a computer-generated image of a person – closely resembling a photo of one of nine suspects, while the other had an e-fit that did not resemble any of the suspects closely. Participants knew that they had the same photos of the suspects, but different e-fit. They conferred face-to-face but could not see each other’s e-fit. </p>
<p>The results showed that the pair members with good e-fits were much more confident of their judgements and also that they persuaded their partners to agree with them. In most pairs, both participants agreed on the right suspect. This corroborates the confidence heuristic, because it shows that confidence does signal accuracy and does encourage people to believe what is said. </p>
<p>Of course, people <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886913003516?via%3Dihub">vary greatly in general self-confidence</a> and in how <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/spc3.12317">forcefully they express themselves</a>. You might have expected this to undermine the confidence heuristic, but no: the heuristic is powerful enough to override these differences easily.</p>
<p>We replicated the finding in experiments with 80 additional participant pairs using geometric shapes rather than faces – the task being to identify which shape was closest in size to a target shape. In one experiment, half the pairs interacted face-to-face and the rest communicated electronically through instant messaging (texting without a character limit).</p>
<p>We did not expect the mechanism to work through instant messaging, because nonverbal signals that convey confidence, – such as eye contact, tone of voice, gestures and facial expression – <a href="https://www.signix.com/blog/9-nonverbal-ways-to-convey-confidence-at-work">are missing from text messages</a>. To our great surprise, it worked equally well through instant messaging and face-to-face communication. </p>
<p>So, knowledgeable people tend to be confident and therefore persuasive, but how do they communicate their confidence if not through nonverbal signals? Previous research has shown that <a href="https://www.le.ac.uk/pc/bdp5/wesson09.pdf">we use verbal statements</a> such as “I’m not sure”, “it’s kind of …” or “I’m absolutely certain”. Indeed, similar expressions were used in our experiments. </p>
<p>But we also found a much simpler and more direct type of signal, in both face-to-face and instant messaging, that had a remarkably powerful effect: the pair member with the stronger evidence was very often the first to speak and especially the first to suggest an answer. This shows that getting in first is an important signal of confidence.</p>
<h2>Beware of context</h2>
<p>The confidence heuristic works, but that obviously does not imply that we should always believe confident people who speak first. Some people are <a href="https://theconversation.com/confidence-can-be-a-bad-thing-heres-why-79852">overconfident</a> while others may be socially inhibited.</p>
<p>It is also important to consider the context of the decision. Our experiments used “common interest” problems, in which decision makers <a href="https://lra.le.ac.uk/bitstream/2381/27893/3/Explaining%20Strategic%20Coordination%20v2.pdf">were incentivised to coordinate their responses</a> to reach a shared goal, such as identifying a criminal. In other contexts, people’s interests sometimes diverge. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234621/original/file-20180903-41702-f8cunu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s fake news.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/las-vegas-nevada-december-14-2015-353116925?src=LRgCMkryRCLEDiYEPVwuJw-1-3">Joseph Sohm/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, a used car salesman may be much more knowledgeable than a customer about a particular car for sale, and may state with great confidence that the asking price is a bargain. But the customer may be ill-advised to believe it, because the salesman <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/nov/08/working-life-used-car-salesman">has a different agenda</a>.</p>
<p>Equally, many politicians may be motivated to win over voters with overconfident behaviour. Sure enough – Trump, who has recurrently been accused of being involved in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/22/will-trump-be-impeached-cohen-manafort-explained">influencing the 2016 US presidential elections</a>, has a strong incentive to appear confident when stating that the media are biased against him and have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-pushes-a-reality-where-opponents-are-peddling-false-facts-and-only-he-can-be-trusted/2018/08/30/d7ac7c38-ac62-11e8-b1da-ff7faa680710_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c17c58de5878">fudged incriminatory evidence</a>. </p>
<p>Clearly, Trump’s confident statements don’t necessarily mean he’s always right. Confidence can tell us what people believe to be true or what they want us to believe is true – it does not necessarily always tell us what is actually true.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew M Colman receives funding from the 'Economic and Social Research Council' and the 'Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Endowment fund'.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Briony Pulford receives funding from the 'Economic and Social Research Council' and the 'Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Endowment Fund'. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva M Krockow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
As long as there are no hidden agendas, it is surprisingly simple to reach the right decision when faced with contradictory information.
Eva M Krockow, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Health Sciences and Psychology, University of Leicester
Andrew M Colman, Professor of Psychology, University of Leicester
Briony Pulford, Associate Professor of Psychology, University of Leicester
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/100183
2018-07-18T12:11:06Z
2018-07-18T12:11:06Z
Anthill 27: Confidence
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228180/original/file-20180718-142432-1hlbojd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com">Shutterstock </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002">This episode of The Anthill podcast</a> digs into the concept of confidence. We start by finding out how scientists define confidence and how it works in the brain. </p>
<p>Producer Gemma Ware takes a <a href="http://confidence.success-equation.com/">confidence calibration</a> test with the help of psychologist Eva Krockow at the University of Leicester, who also shares some of her research findings on whether expressing confidence about something is a good marker of being right about it. And neuroscientist Dan Bang from the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, UCL, helps explain how a person’s brain computes their level of confidence about certain tasks – and why we need to be aware of the variety in people’s levels of confidence when making decisions as a group. </p>
<p>Then we take a look at how confidence can get us ahead in life – and in the workplace especially. Can you really fake it until you make it? Westminster University’s Chantal Gautier shares some of the findings from her book, The Psychology of Work, where she interviewed a number of industry leaders to discover what it is that makes organisations successful. Confidence is important. But that includes the confidence to admit your shortcomings and ask for help when you need it, she says.</p>
<p>With numerous studies suggesting that men show more confidence than women, we also examine the extent that this explains the gender pay gap. Are women just not leaning in enough?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228187/original/file-20180718-142417-1d11air.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Lean on in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1022439985?src=CzRL_43uH0AjfrrdkrT7Bw-1-28&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Recent <a href="https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2016/twerp_1127_oswald.pdf">research</a> by Amanda Goodall at Cass Business School found that women are actually asking for pay rises at the same rate as men. They’re just not getting them. She helps us unpick the idea that you can fake it ‘til you make it and explains why leaders that are real experts in their field are better than those who aren’t.</p>
<p>Lastly, we turn to the dark side of confidence. The Conversation’s Holly Squire delves deep into the murky world of confidence tricksters, to find out what makes a con man (or woman) tick. Professional magician Gustav Kuhn at Goldsmiths University of London, details the deception involved in card trick scams. And Keith Brown from Bournemouth University explains the reality of financial scamming – and the terrible impact it can have on victims. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The Anthill theme music is by Alex Grey for Melody Loops. The song <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV-6qbUHVww">“I Have Confidence”</a> is sung by Julie Andrews from the musical The Sound of Music by Rogers and Hammerstein. Music in the confidence definition segment is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7KZAoj4YH0&index=15&list=PLzCxunOM5WFLOaTRCzeGrODz8TWaLrbhv">Into the Clouds</a> by Nicolai Heidlas Music via YouTube.<br>
Music in the confidence trickster segment is <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kai_Engel/The_Scope/Kai_Engel_-_The_Scope_-_02_Cutrains_are_Always_Drawn">Curtains are Always Drawn</a> by Kai Engel, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Frank_Dorittke/Mare_Tranquillitatis/pcr018_cd01_10_fd_project_land_of_magic">Land of Magic</a> by Frank Dorittke from the Free Music Archive.</em> </p>
<p><em>Click here to listen to more episodes of The Anthill, on themes including <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-26-twins-98271">Twins</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-25-intuition-96677">Intuition</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-19-pain-87538">Pain</a>. And browse <a href="https://theconversation.com/podcasts">other podcasts</a> from The Conversation here.</em> </p>
<p><em>Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A podcast about confidence – from how it works in our brains and whether it can get us ahead at work to how confidence tricksters fool people into falling for their scams.
Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UK
Gemma Ware, Head of Audio
Holly Squire, Special Projects Editor, The Conversation UK
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/99286
2018-07-10T20:03:45Z
2018-07-10T20:03:45Z
Happiness helps football players do better, and it could help economies too
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226642/original/file-20180709-122250-1mqcqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's a strong correlation between happiness and innovation. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>World Cup football teams with a higher proportion of players smiling in their official portraits have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487017307286">scored more goals on average</a> in all group phases since 1970. The authors of this study argue that smiling is a reflection of confidence. Greater confidence results in a greater capacity to overcome complex situations and score more goals. </p>
<p>We decided to explore whether this same smiling-creativity link holds for entire societies by looking at the relationship between happiness and creative capacity. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-russians-so-stingy-with-their-smiles-98799">Why are Russians so stingy with their smiles?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The argument draws on what the researchers found with football teams. If we extrapolate individual smiling and happiness to a communal context, societies that are happier than others would reflect more confidence and trust in their institutions and economic systems. </p>
<p>This in turn can support more and better innovation in business and related processes – the better the conditions (for instance, low levels of corruption), the more new ventures are likely to arise.</p>
<p>In addition, unhappy people, reflected as those who are preoccupied with worries, simply do not have the carefreeness to be creative while <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/338/6107/682">making decisions</a>. </p>
<p>Another consideration is that people who are happier tend to be more socially active and vice versa. And it is well known that social interactions are conducive to debate and the creation and diffusion of <a href="https://tedxsydney.com/idea/how-ideas-spread-the-role-of-social-networks/">new ideas</a>. </p>
<h2>Happiness and economic growth</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/happiness-the-real-purpose-of-economic-development-2946">Many</a> have proposed happiness as an alternative measure of economic progress and wellbeing across countries and regions of the world. </p>
<p>The justification is that happiness should be considered the main objective of economic growth. Thus, the focus has generally been on understanding happiness as a consequence of development, used as a proxy of how well societies are doing. </p>
<p>We instead wanted to see whether happiness is a driver of economic development rather than a result of it. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/happiness-the-real-purpose-of-economic-development-2946">Happiness: the real purpose of economic development?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/12305163-the-rise-of-the-creative-class--revisited">Different</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0167718795004998">researchers</a> <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1823649?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">have</a> <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/1807329">found</a> that creative capacity and innovation are important predictors of economic growth and development.</p>
<p>If we can show that the connection between happiness and creative capacity holds in societies, as it apparently does in World Cup football teams, then we can argue that happiness indeed supports economic development (and vice versa). </p>
<p>To explore this phenomenon across countries, we used happiness data from the <a href="http://worldhappiness.report/ed/2018/">UN World Happiness Report</a>, which ranks country happiness based on the pooled results from Gallup World Poll surveys (from 2015-2017), and contrasted it with innovation data from the World Bank’s <a href="https://tcdata360.worldbank.org/indicators/he09740d7?country=BRA&indicator=32646&viz=bar_chart&years=2017">Global Innovation Index</a>.</p>
<p>This index is based on 81 different indicators related to innovation, such as credit, ecological sustainability, education and the political environment. </p>
<p>As shown in the following graph, happiness and the Global Innovation Index show a strong positive correlation. This implies that happier countries do outperform others in terms of creativity. </p>
<p><iframe id="90Ys3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/90Ys3/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We kept exploring and looked at data from counties (districts) in the United States. Specifically, we contrasted <a href="http://www.countyhealthrankings.org">mental health</a> (defined as fewer poor mental health days) and a <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/creative-class-county-codes">creativity index</a>. </p>
<p>We used a measure of poor mental health days, as there are no data on happiness within the United States. The <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/creative-class-county-codes">creativity index</a> consists of the local share of employment in occupations that require a high level of “thinking creativity”.</p>
<p>Again a positive correlation is evident in the following chart.</p>
<p><iframe id="CXsPQ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CXsPQ/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The relationship between fewer poor mental health days and creativity thus is confirmed to exist across US counties. </p>
<p>But some regional variation does exist. For example, in the northeast (where counties on average are wealthier than in the rest of the country), the relationship is more pronounced. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poor-mental-health-leads-to-temporary-employment-18048">Poor mental health leads to temporary employment </a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This does not mean that to progress as societies general happiness alone suffices. Rather, happiness seems to be one of a number of important factors that promote more and better growth. </p>
<p>This research is still in progress, and more work is needed to establish a clear causal relationship between happiness, education and other factors of economic growth. </p>
<p>But, if the underlying hypotheses are not rejected, the policy implications are clear. More and better programs intended to reduce stress (weekends of three days?), for instance, could bring important economic benefits to societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>No particular funding source has supported this work so far. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan J. Goetz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Societies that are happier than others would be reflecting more confidence and trust in their institutions and economic systems.
David A. Fleming-Muñoz, Economist, CSIRO
Stephan J. Goetz, Professor of Agricultural and Regional Economics, Penn State
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/91822
2018-03-19T21:44:49Z
2018-03-19T21:44:49Z
How exercise can help tackle the opioid crisis
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211075/original/file-20180319-31614-13s320u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exercise is recommended as an effective non-opioid strategy for non-cancer pain such as fibromyalgia and chronic low back pain. Yet most adults living with chronic pain do not exercise. Or they exercise very little. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. President Donald Trump is calling for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/18/politics/trump-opioid-plan/index.html">high-intensity drug traffickers to face the death penalty in the United States</a> as part of a new plan to tackle the opioid epidemic.</p>
<p>The misuse of opioids has reached crisis levels across North America. Every day in 2016, <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/opioids/about-the-epidemic/">116 Americans died from opioid-related drug overdoses</a>. And almost <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/substance-abuse/prescription-drug-abuse/opioids/apparent-opioid-related-deaths.html">1,500 Canadians died from such overdoses during the first half of 2017</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-fix-canadas-opioid-crisis-it-starts-with-pain-and-the-prescription-pad-78512">health-care providers continue to prescribe opioids</a> — to try to help people suffering from chronic pain. </p>
<p>Prescription of <a href="https://www.iasp-pain.org/Advocacy/OpioidPositionStatement">low-dose opioids over the medium-term</a> may be a useful pain management strategy. Nearly <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3298051/">one in five adults</a> live with chronic pain in Canada, and the rates are higher among older adults and women. However, uncertainties about the long-term effectiveness of opioids, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/rr/rr6501e1.htm">along with addiction, tolerance and dependency risks</a>, mean that other pain management strategies are urgently needed. </p>
<p>Exercise is one such strategy. Exercise is <a href="http://nationalpaincentre.mcmaster.ca/documents/Opioid%20GL%20for%20CMAJ_01may2017.pdf">recommended as an effective non-opioid strategy for non-cancer pain such as fibromyalgia and chronic low back pain</a>. Yet most adults living with chronic pain do not exercise. Or they exercise very little. </p>
<p>As former collegiate athletes, we have experienced chronic pain ourselves. Now, as researchers, we study the psychological factors that may help people with chronic pain exercise daily. </p>
<p>We have found three factors — acceptance of pain, resiliency and the confidence to cope — boost exercise participation for those living with chronic pain. </p>
<h2>Exercise reduces pain intensity</h2>
<p>Pain is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog?term=Bonica%27s%20management%20of%20pain%5BTitle%5D">considered to be chronic when lasting beyond an expected time for tissue healing</a>, usually three to six months or longer, and it is not due to cancer. </p>
<p>Chronic pain arises from various causes such as an underlying chronic disease like arthritis, an injury or a hypersensitive nervous system. The origin of the pain can also be unknown.</p>
<p>There are no specific exercise recommendations for adults living with chronic pain. However, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/food-nutrition/canada-food-guide/food-guide-basics/physical-activity-canada.html">we know that 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity exercise each week provides health benefits to all people.</a></p>
<p>You know that exercise is of moderate intensity if <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/basics/measuring/index.html">you can talk but not sing</a>. At vigorous intensity, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/basics/measuring/index.html">most people can say only a few words at a time</a> because they are breathing too hard. </p>
<p>For individuals with chronic pain who are just beginning to exercise, <a href="https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.berh.2015.04.022">low- intensity activity can also be helpful</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, exercise helps people better manage chronic pain and its impacts. For example, exercise reduces how intense pain feels. Exercise also reduces disability, fatigue, depression and anxiety, all of which are commonly experienced by those living with pain. Those who exercise are better able to do physical tasks and have better overall fitness levels. </p>
<p>Despite the many benefits, participating in exercise is challenging. Researchers have found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpain.2014.01.489">women with chronic widespread pain participated in only nine minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity exercise on weekdays</a> and 12 minutes on weekends. </p>
<p>Men with chronic widespread pain did not exercise much more. They participated in 20 minutes on weekdays and 17 minutes on weekends.</p>
<h2>Acceptance of pain is key</h2>
<p>Early in our own research, we expected pain intensity to be the main barrier to participation in exercise. However, research shows this is typically not true. </p>
<p>In an early key study, researchers found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1207/S15324796ABM2403_05">individuals’ pain intensity was no higher on non-exercise days compared to exercise days</a>. They suggested that study participants’ pain may not have been intense enough to interfere with exercise. </p>
<p>To examine this possibility, <a href="https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0031293">we studied adults who were having a flare in their usual pain from arthritis.</a> Even in this situation, pain intensity was not associated with exercise participation.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/canadas-opioid-crisis-46272">Solutions to Canada’s opioid crisis</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>How people think about their pain seems to be much more important than the intensity of the pain.</p>
<p>One example is acceptance of pain. <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f9b1/b304d64c3ce6e152c9560f83c67139afc9f3.pdf">Acceptance happens when people give up the struggle to completely control their pain</a> and are willing to live a satisfying life by engaging in valued activities, like exercise. </p>
<p>We found that <a href="https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1177/1359105310394229">adults reporting greater acceptance of their chronic pain from arthritis also participated in higher levels of moderate to vigorous intensity exercise</a> compared to those with lower acceptance. </p>
<p>In fact, individuals with higher acceptance exercised for over 200 minutes in a week — well above the health-promoting duration of 150 minutes each week.</p>
<h2>Resiliency and confidence</h2>
<p>Recently, we also examined resiliency and how it related to whether people with chronic pain exercised or not. </p>
<p>Resiliency is an individual’s ability to adapt well to difficult situations and sources of stress, such as a health challenge like chronic pain. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211072/original/file-20180319-31611-1vva5u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Exercising with chronic pain is effective but not easy; it requires nurturing psychological capacities such as acceptance, resilience and confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In preliminary work with one of our graduate students, Miranda Cary, we found that people who are more resilient exercised more at moderate to vigorous intensities. They also had fewer symptoms of depression and less anxiety about their pain.</p>
<p>Another psychological factor important for exercise participation is the confidence to cope with pain and related barriers, like fatigue and stiffness. </p>
<p>We have found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/art.24697">the more confidence individuals have that they can use strategies to cope</a>, the <a href="https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0031293">higher their exercise levels</a>.</p>
<p>More confident individuals also <a href="https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/aphw.12092">persist longer and harder</a> in using coping strategies when faced with challenging barriers compared to less confident individuals.</p>
<h2>Mindfulness as a strategy</h2>
<p>How can these psychological factors (pain acceptance, resiliency, confidence to cope) be improved among individuals living with chronic pain? </p>
<p>Working with a registered psychologist who has expertise in acceptance and commitment therapy and/or resiliency is a good starting point. </p>
<p>Practising mindfulness, or being present in the moment, may also be helpful. Many mindfulness apps are available for use on smart phones and tablets.</p>
<p>Building confidence to cope with pain and related barriers takes planning and practice. A good starting point to identify effective strategies is to use the <a href="https://www.saskatoonhealthregion.ca/locations_services/Services/pain-management/Documents/Pain%20Infographic%20no%20logo%2027022018.pdf">4 P’s of Pain Management Tool</a> developed by Dr. Susan Tupper at the Saskatchewan Health Authority. </p>
<p>The 4 P’s include the strategies of: Physical (e.g. acupuncture, ice/heat), psychological (e.g., mindfulness, relaxation), pharmacological (e.g. non-steroidal anti-inflammatories) and prevention (e.g. activity pacing). </p>
<p>Other strategies can be identified via brainstorming with others who have chronic pain, as well as health-care and exercise providers, and using online search engines. Once people try using strategies, and figure out which ones work, this builds their confidence and exercise levels.</p>
<p>Ultimately, exercise helps individuals better manage their chronic pain. However, exercising is not as easy as “just do it.” Psychological strengths must be nurtured within individuals to help them start and stick with exercise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nancy Gyurcsik receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC); Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR); Saskatchewan Health Research Foundation (SHRF); Saskatchewan Community Initiatives Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle Brittain receives funding from the Saskatchewan Health Research Foundation (SHRF) and the Saskatchewan Community Initiatives Fund. </span></em></p>
Research shows that exercise offers promise – as an alternative to prescription opioids – for relieving chronic pain.
Nancy Gyurcsik, Professor of Exercise Psychology, University of Saskatchewan
Danielle Brittain, Associate Professor at Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Boulder
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/81450
2017-08-01T22:22:03Z
2017-08-01T22:22:03Z
Why kids need risk, fear and excitement in play
<p>“Be careful!” “Not so high!” “Stop that!” </p>
<p>Concerned parents can often be heard urging safety when children are at play. Recent research suggests this may be <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/04/hey-parents-leave-those-kids-alone/358631/">over-protective</a> and that kids need more opportunities for <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13502930701321733">risky play</a> outdoors. </p>
<p>Risky play is thrilling and exciting play where children test their boundaries and flirt with uncertainty. They climb trees, build forts, roam the neighbourhood with friends or play capture the flag. <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/6423">Research shows such play</a> is associated with increased physical activity, social skills, risk management skills, resilience and self-confidence. These findings make intuitive sense when you <a href="http://mymodernmet.com/forest-kindergarten/">watch children at play</a>. </p>
<p>Importantly, it’s not up to parents or experts to decide what is risky play for a particular child. </p>
<p>Rather, children need to be given the mental and physical space to figure out appropriate risk levels for themselves: far enough that it feels <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.2304/ciec.2009.10.2.92">exhilarating</a>, but not so far that it becomes too scary. </p>
<p>My years as an injury prevention researcher have left me well aware of things that can go wrong and how to prevent them from happening. But because I have a doctorate in developmental psychology, I am also concerned that we are <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/9/9/3134">keeping our kids too safe</a>. Preventing our kids from exploring uncertainty could have <a href="https://www.participaction.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Participaction-PositionStatement-ActiveOutdoorPlay_0.pdf">unintended negative consequences</a> for their health and development, such as increased <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/6423">sedentary behaviour</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/147470491100900212">anxiety and phobias</a>. </p>
<h2>Parents’ hopes and fears</h2>
<p>Many of the parents I’ve spoken to through my research <a href="http://journals.lww.com/jrnldbp/Abstract/2011/09000/Striking_a_Balance_Between_Risk_and_Protection_.1.aspx">recognize the importance of risky play</a>, but can be overwhelmed by worry about the possibility of serious injury or abduction. They also worry that someone is going to report them to the authorities for letting their child take risks. These worries make it hard for them to let go and can result in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-psychologists-and-counsellors-in-schools/article/can-a-parent-do-too-much-for-their-child-an-examination-by-parenting-professionals-of-the-concept-of-overparenting/3E190E449B5F74EBCA43DECF7BD0470A">over-protection</a>. </p>
<p>More recently, I’ve noticed an opposite trend: parents who are worried their child is too timid and not taking enough risks. They want to know how they can help their child take more risks in play. </p>
<p>This concerns me as much as over-protection. Both approaches can increase the risk of injury and harm since they ignore children’s capabilities and preferences. How will children learn about themselves and how the world works if an adult is constantly telling them what to do and how to do it? </p>
<h2>What about injuries?</h2>
<p>There’s never been a <a href="https://journal.cpha.ca/index.php/cjph/article/download/5315/3483">safer time to be a child in Canada</a>. The likelihood of dying from an injury is 0.0059 per cent. Car crashes and suicides are the leading causes of death, not play. In fact, children are more likely to need medical attention for an injury resulting from <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-014-0289-0">organized sports</a> than play. </p>
<p>Likewise, the likelihood of <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn33598-eng.pdf">abduction by a stranger</a> is so small that the statistics are not even collected. In an attempt to strike a balance, <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/21/5/344">injury prevention professionals</a> are moving to an approach that seeks to keep children <a href="https://www.rospa.com/faqs/detail/?id=67">as safe as necessary, rather than as safe as possible</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180460/original/file-20170801-28766-1y1jhih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At OutsidePlay.ca parents can understand their own fears around risky play and develop a plan for their child.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Children are inherently capable</h2>
<p>Risky play is an important part of many outdoor schools and early child care settings in <a href="http://childnature.ca/">Canada</a> and other parts of the world. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/dec/09/the-school-in-the-woods-outdoor-education-modern-britain">outdoor forest schools and nurseries in the U.K.</a>, for example, pre-school and kindergarten kids build dens, climb trees, use tools and create fire — under careful supervision. </p>
<p>One principal in New Zealand decided his students <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1Y0cuufVGI">didn’t need any rules</a>. Students were allowed to climb trees, build forts, ride bikes — whatever occurred to them. His school was part of a <a href="http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/139/5/e20163072">larger study</a> that found students who were allowed risky play were happier and reported less bullying than students in schools who didn’t change their approach. </p>
<p>Seeing children engaged in risky play helps us realize that they’re much more capable than we think. <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/dateline/story/kids-gone-wild">When they’re given the chance</a>, even very young children show clear abilities to manage risks and figure out their own limits. We just have to open our eyes and be willing to see what is in front of us. And most importantly, get out of the way to give them a chance to experiment for themselves. The potential for learning is enormous. </p>
<h2>What’s a parent to do?</h2>
<p>Setting unnecessary limits on a child’s play or pushing them too far: both are problematic. Our role as caregivers is to give children the freedom to explore and play as they choose while supporting them in managing the real dangers that pose a serious and realistic threat to their safety. </p>
<p>What this looks like varies for different children depending on their developmental stage, competencies and personal preferences. For example, play where there is a chance of getting lost is common at all ages: A preschooler hiding in bushes feels like he’s a jungle explorer. His parents supervise while giving him the feeling of independence. </p>
<p>For older children, this kind of play can involve exploring their neighbourhood with friends. Parents can help prepare them by gradually building the skills needed to <a href="http://www.parachutecanada.org/injury-topics/topic/C14">navigate traffic safely</a>. </p>
<p>For parents struggling to strike a balance, my lab has developed <a href="https://outsideplay.ca/">OutsidePlay.ca</a>, an online tool to help parents manage their fears and develop a plan for change so their children can have more opportunities for risky play. Usually this involves learning how to get out of the way of children’s play. Change can be as simple as counting to 30 before stepping in to give children a chance to manage on their own. Parents are often amazed by what they see.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mariana Brussoni receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Lawson Foundation and salary support from the BC Children's Hospital Research Institute. </span></em></p>
Did you know there has never been a safer time to be a child in Canada? Research shows that kids need freedom outdoors to explore exhilaration and fear, and discover their own limits.
Mariana Brussoni, Associate Professor of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/79852
2017-06-23T14:04:45Z
2017-06-23T14:04:45Z
Confidence can be a bad thing – here’s why
<p>Have you ever felt 100% confident in your ability to complete a task, and then failed miserably? After <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/40347469">losing in the first</a> round at Queen’s Club for the first time since 2012, world number one tennis player, Andy Murray, hinted that “overconfidence” might have been his downfall. Reflecting on his early exit, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/40349519">Murray said</a>: “Winning a tournament is great and you feel good afterwards, but you can also sometimes think that your game is in a good place and maybe become a little bit more relaxed in that week beforehand.” </p>
<p>There is no doubt that success breeds confidence, and in turn, the confidence gained from success positively influences performance – normally. However, recently, this latter part of the relationship between confidence and performance has been called into doubt. High confidence can have its drawbacks. One may only need to look at the results of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-it-all-went-wrong-for-theresa-may-79219?sr=5">recent general election</a> to note that Theresa May called for an early election partly based on her confidence to win an overall majority. </p>
<p><a href="http://ipep.bangor.ac.uk/confidence.php">Our research</a> at the Institute for the Psychology of Elite Performance at Bangor University has extensively examined the relationship between confidence and performance. So, what are the advantages and disadvantages of having high (or indeed low) levels of confidence for an upcoming task?</p>
<h2>Confidence and performance</h2>
<p>First, let’s look at the possible outcomes of having low confidence (some form of <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2010-12916-001">self-doubt</a>). Low confidence is the state of thinking that we are not quite ready to face an upcoming task. In this case, one of two things happens: either <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19744355">we disengage</a> from the task, or we invest extra effort into preparing for it. In one of our studies participants were required to <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/240e/c8b5df5f3763819537d97ebe3e1887ae345a.pdf">skip with a rope</a> continuously for one minute. Participants were then told that they had to repeat the task but using a more difficult rope to skip with (in fact it was the same type of rope). Results revealed that confidence decreased but performance improved. In this case, self-doubt can be quite beneficial.</p>
<p>Now let’s consider the role of overconfidence. A high level of confidence is usually helpful for performing tasks because it can lead you to strive for difficult goals. But high confidence can also be detrimental when it causes you to lower the amount of effort you give towards these goals. Overconfidence often makes people no longer feel the need to invest all of their effort – think of the confident student who studies less for an upcoming exam. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175200/original/file-20170622-11958-s82n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘There’s no way I’ll miss from here.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pov-shot-golf-player-putting-green-624573974?src=uKrJ7gkUvI1YoL_2Hs6Wig-2-8">Jacob Lund/shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interestingly, some of our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1469029211000227">research findings</a> show that when people are faced with immediate feedback after a golf putting task (knowing exactly how well you have just performed), confidence expectations (number of putts they thought they could make next) far exceeded actual obtained performance levels by as much as 46%. When confidence is miscalibrated (believing you are better than you really are), it will have a negative effect on subsequent task performance.</p>
<p>This overconfidence in our ability to perform a task seems to be a subconscious process, and it looks like it is here to stay. Fortunately, in the long term the pros of being overconfident (reaching for the stars) seem to far outweigh the cons (task failure) because if at first you do not succeed you can always try again. But miscalibrated confidence will be more likely to occur if vital <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/spy/5/1/1/">performance information</a> regarding your previous levels of performance accomplishments is either ignored or not available. When this happens people tend to overestimate rather than underestimate their abilities. </p>
<p>So, Andy Murray, this Queen’s setback is a great wake-up call – just in time for Wimbledon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79852/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Confidence in sports, exams and other endeavours in life, can be counter-productive.
Stuart Beattie, Lecturer of Psychology, Bangor University
Tim Woodman, Professor and Head of the School of Sport, Health and Exercise Sciences, Bangor University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/77840
2017-06-08T12:35:45Z
2017-06-08T12:35:45Z
How yoga makes us happy, according to science
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172909/original/file-20170608-32339-rwljwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/daverose215/9704343415/">daverose215</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Can we really unlock our personal power by adopting “powerful” body postures? Unfortunately, the findings that link these so-called “power poses” <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/george-osborne-tory-conference-power-pose-expert-says-no-effect-a7334561.html">beloved of certain politicians</a> with a real sense of power and control are <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797616658563?journalCode=pssa">difficult to replicate</a>. We may not yet understand the mechanism through which body postures influence our psychological states, but <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00752/full">our recent study</a> suggests that we may draw insights from the rapidly expanding research on the psychological benefits of yoga.</p>
<p>In our study, some participants performed two simple yoga poses for two minutes, while others performed “power poses” for two minutes. Afterwards, those who held the yoga poses reported improved subjective feelings of energy, sense of power, and self-esteem compared to the other group. </p>
<p>What could lie behind this apparent boost? One theory is that yoga’s psychological benefits may be linked to the functioning of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/vagus-nerve">vagus nerve</a>. This, the tenth cranial nerve, is the longest of the autonomic nervous system which is responsible for the body’s unconscious functioning such as breathing, circulation and digestion. But intriguingly its functioning is also directly linked to <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797612470827">social competence and beneficial emotional regulation</a>.</p>
<h2>Yoga improves mental and physical health</h2>
<p>Yoga is the practice of non-competitive, physical exercise involving held poses (in Sanskrit, <em>asana</em>) combined with regulated breathing (<em>pranayama</em>) and meditation techniques. The past few decades have seen a great increase in the practice of yoga in the West. Over <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26497261">31m adults in the US</a> have practised yoga at some point in their lives.</p>
<p>Multiple studies point to the positive effects of yoga on mental and physical health, as well as on personal development. Yoga alleviates <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241122664_Impact_of_yoga_on_chronic_pain_-A_review?enrichId=rgreq-308daf3dd56ffa1c6181c63f1492391d-XXX&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI0MTEyMjY2NDtBUzo5OTI2Njc4MTUxNTc5MUAxNDAwNjc4NDUzNTQ2&el=1_x_2&_esc=publicationCoverPdf">chronic pain</a>. It helps manage <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15636328">coronary artery disease</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20112821">asthma</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18227915">diabetes</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15139072">lymphoma</a>, and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2933732/">breast cancer</a>. Yoga helps individuals suffering from mental health problems, such as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23922209">depression</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1725091/">anxiety</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21620478">obsessive-compulsive disorder</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jts.21903/abstract">post traumatic stress disorder</a>, and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/09638288.2010.509458">schizophrenia</a>. </p>
<p>Regular yoga practice also benefits healthy individuals, improving <a href="http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/acm.2016.0334">psychological well-being</a>, <a href="http://www.impettrelationshipslab.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2010/11/2006-SRSP-Impett-Daubenmier-Hirschman.pdf">satisfaction with life</a>, and <a href="http://www.jehp.net/article.asp?issn=2277-9531;year=2013;volume=2;issue=1;spage=55;epage=55;aulast=Sethi">self-esteem</a>, and reducing <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270652630_How_does_yoga_reduce_stress_A_systematic_review_of_mechanisms_of_change_and_guide_to_future_inquiry">stress</a> and <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10484-009-9103-4">performance anxiety</a>. Studies have also <a href="http://iaytjournals.org/doi/abs/10.17761/ijyt.14.1.47r6323xv20h786u?code=iayt-site">found</a> that yoga reduces fatigue and negative affect, while increasing positive affect and giving a feeling of being energised. </p>
<h2>Yoga poses and self-esteem</h2>
<p>Our study was unusual compared to others examining the effects of yoga practice in that it examined only the <em>asana</em> aspect of yoga in order to investigate its effect on self-esteem. Predominantly, research into yoga has focused on the benefits of meditation and breathing. A recent <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Crystal_Park/publication/263710747_A_Systematic_Scoping_Review_of_Yoga_Intervention_Components_and_Study_Quality/links/0046353c05086bcc82000000.pdf">review of 465 research papers</a> devoted to yoga’s role in promoting well-being noted that only 169 of those papers included the physical aspects of <em>asana</em>. To the best of our knowledge, only two previous studies have focused solely on studying the psychological effects of yoga poses. </p>
<p>We compared the effect of the <em><a href="http://www.yogajournal.com/poses/mountain-pose">tadasana</a></em>, <em><a href="http://www.yogajournal.com/poses/upward-salute">urdhva hastasana</a></em> and <em><a href="http://www.yogajournal.com/poses/eagle-pose">garudasana</a></em> yoga poses to two “high power” and two “low power” power poses. We found that after performing two yoga poses our participants felt more energetic, empowered, and in control than those participants who performed power poses. Feeling energetic directly affected their confidence and feeling of satisfaction with themselves regardless of their initial levels of self-esteem. </p>
<p>We think such effects had less to do with the meaning of dominance associated with the poses, and more with the feedback that the body alignment in yoga poses provides to the parasympathetic nervous system – the part responsible for regulating the body’s unconscious actions. The high power poses were seen as more dominant and confident than yoga poses, but were less effective in increasing participants’ self-esteem. </p>
<p>So if it wasn’t the non-verbal meaning conveyed by the body postures that affected our participants’ self-perception, what was it? We can’t answer this directly, but its effect can be interpreted in light of the existing literature.</p>
<h2>How do yoga poses affect the body?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171480/original/file-20170530-30136-1nlztmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The vagus nerve’s connections to the body’s parasympathetic nervous system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://cnx.org/contents/FPtK1zmh@6.27:kQtsmOFO@2/Divisions-of-the-Autonomic-Ner">OpenStax College</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The dispersed effects of yoga practice can all be linked to a common mechanism: the functioning of the vagus nerve which connects the brain (and therefore the mind) to the body. From the brain stem, the vagus nerve connects facial muscles, heart, lungs, digestive tract, kidneys and reproductive organs. It plays a key role in operating the parasympathetic nervous system which includes the feed-and-breed and rest-and-digest processes, and also regulates heart rate, and promotes calm and soothing states. The nerve is responsible for the neural regulation of parts of the body necessary for communication: the larynx, the eyes, the inner ears (particularly helping to distinguish human voices from background noises), and facial muscles involved in vocal and non-vocal expressions.</p>
<p>It also regulates our caring behaviour, hence why a well-functioning vagus nerve leads us to feel calm, relaxed and safe in relation to others. This is also reciprocal: feeling calm, relaxed and sociable also stimulates the vagus nerve. This means it’s possible to start off a positive upward spiral of well-being either by affecting the states of the body or the states of the mind.</p>
<p>Research suggests that the proper functioning of the vagus nerve (assessed as the “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5316555/">cardiac vagal tone</a>” indicating the degree of the vagus nerve’s influence on the heart) promotes emotion regulation, social competence, and prosocial behaviour, and dampens aggression, hostility, depression and anxiety. This supports our theory that yoga practice – meditation, breathing, and performing yoga postures – tones the vagal nerve. Our findings suggest that even a short practice of yoga poses may positively affect the vagal tone, making us feel more satisfied and happy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
From ‘power poses’ to yoga poses, varying claims have been made about their effects on our health and happiness. But why do they work at all?
Agnieszka Golec de Zavala, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Goldsmiths, University of London
Dorottya Lantos, Doctoral Candidate in Psychology, Goldsmiths, University of London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/69587
2016-11-29T17:33:39Z
2016-11-29T17:33:39Z
Zuma lives to fight another day. But fallout from latest revolt will live on
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147966/original/image-20161129-10984-95iwh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's President Jacob Zuma. His supporters within the African National Congress continue to hold sway, for now.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Aaron Ufumeli</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s African National Congress’s <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/officials/national-executive-committee-0">National Executive Committee (NEC)</a> – the body that runs the party between its five-yearly party conferences – has considered a motion to force President Jacob Zuma <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/11/28/anc-top-brass-asked-to-pick-sides-in-zuma-no-confidence-motion">to step down</a>. Despite increasing tensions within the party over Zuma’s presidency, this is the first time the NEC has considered acting against him. The motion <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2016-11-29-mantashe-nec-affirmed-zuma-is-president-of-south-africa">failed</a> but the repercussions for the president, the ANC and the country will reverberate for months and years to come. </p>
<p>An unprecedented number of senior NEC members, including six cabinet ministers, risked their jobs to urge Zuma to resign. The cabinet ministers included tourism minister <a href="http://whoswho.co.za/derek-hanekom-4283">Derek Hanekom</a>, health minister <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/leaders/profile/1475">Aaron Motsoaledi</a>, public works minister <a href="http://www.pa.org.za/person/thembelani-waltermade-nxesi/">Thulas Nxesi</a> and finance minister Pravin Gordhan.</p>
<p>On the other side of the divide were Zuma’s backers which included leaders of three of South Africa’s nine provinces, known as the <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Premier-league-coined-by-those-with-political-agenda-Mahumapelo-20151011">Premier League</a> and a host of cabinet ministers
including the minister of home affairs <a href="http://www.dha.gov.za/index.php/about-us/minister-of-home-affairs">Malusi Gigaba</a> and sports minister <a href="http://whoswho.co.za/fikile-mbalula-3200">Fikile Mbalula</a>.</p>
<p>Zuma’s supporters fought desperately to avoid the motion being put to the vote at the NEC meeting. This suggests they realised that, for the first time, they weren’t guaranteed a majority. The slimness of the pro-Zuma faction was highlighted by the fact that the NEC meeting was <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/anc-meeting-extended-zumas-fate-uncertain-2093875">extended from two to three days</a> to enable more Zuma supporters – absent when it started – <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/zuma-survives-coup-2094224">to fly in to support him</a>. </p>
<p>The debate at the NEC was the latest revolt against Zuma’s leadership. In the governing <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/kids/tripartite-alliance">tripartite alliance</a> the <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2015-06-25-sacp-our-zuma-mistake">South African Communist Party</a> and some Congress of South African Trade Unions <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/nehawu-calls-on-zuma-to-resign-20161101">affiliates</a> have both openly criticised him. All backed Zuma for president in 2008. Within the ANC’s wider circle of influence only its Youth League and Women’s League remain <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/09/05/ANCYL-ANCWL-and-MKMVA-rally-behind-Zuma">Zuma allies</a>. </p>
<h2>Parallels with Mbeki’s recall</h2>
<p>The attempts to oust Zuma are reminiscent of <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2008-09-20-anc-recalls-mbeki">the sacking of then President President Thabo Mbeki in 2008</a>. The difference is that Mbeki was by then not the president of the ANC. He had been outvoted – and Zuma voted in – at the ANC’s national conference in 2007. A year later the NEC took a decision to recall him as president of the country. </p>
<p>By a strange twist, the NEC has the power to remove the president of the country. But it does not have the power to remove the president of the party.</p>
<p>The only way in which the ANC could remove Zuma would be at an elective conference. These are held every five years. The next one is due at the end of 2017 when Zuma’s term as president of the ANC ends anyway. For Zuma to be removed before that time the elective conference would need to be rescheduled to an earlier date. Though some ANC members are calling for this, it’s highly unlikely to happen.</p>
<p>There are a number of other possible routes the ANC could take to remove Zuma. One is that the party’s disciplinary committee finds him guilty of bringing the ANC into disrepute, or similar charges. This would give it grounds to act against him. </p>
<p>A further possibility is that a motion of no confidence is tabled against Zuma in parliament. This has already happened several times, and has been defeated on each occasion because of the ANC’s overwhelming majority in the house. A no confidence vote would only succeed if the ANC parliamentary caucus took the unprecedented step of walking out when the vote came to the floor.</p>
<p>The possibility that Zuma is removed through the courts is extremely remote. He has, for example, given every indication <a href="http://city-press.news24.com/News/zuma-to-take-state-capture-report-on-review-20161125">that he will appeal</a> against remedial action of a judicial commission of inquiry recommended by the former Public Protector in a report on state capture. </p>
<p>Clearly, he will appeal against an unfavourable decision in the High Court to the Supreme Court of Appeal, and then to the Constitutional Court. Judging by past litigation, this will probably take six months. The judicial commission itself will take six months or a year to complete its findings, which Zuma will clearly again take on judicial review. All this will extend beyond the ANC December 2017 conference where Zuma’s successor will be elected.</p>
<p>The reality of power is that removing the national leader of any political party inevitably leads to a long drawn-out fight, and is exceptionally difficult. In the case of Britain’s Conservative Party, it was their parliamentary caucus which removed <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/8094268/Margaret-Thatcher-obituary-Ousted-from-Downing-Street-and-the-leadership.html">Margaret Thatcher from office</a>. </p>
<h2>Bad for the party, a boon for the opposition</h2>
<p>The more drawn-out the struggle to get rid of the scandal-prone Zuma, the worse affected the ANC will be. And the better it will be for opposition parties.</p>
<p>Election campaigners of the main opposition Democratic Alliance openly regard Zuma’s continued presidency as the gift that keeps on giving. The longer he clings to power as state president and ANC president, the more ANC voters will abstain in 2019. And the more DA voters can be mobilised by outrage to go to their polling station.</p>
<p>The DA already stands a good chance of wresting control of Gauteng Province, South Africa economic powerhouse, from the ANC in 2019. The DA is currently <a href="https://theconversation.com/tide-begins-to-turn-against-south-africas-president-and-his-supporters-68096">redeploying a team</a> of its Cape Town headquarter staff to Johannesburg to wage a two-year election campaign against the ANC.</p>
<h2>Beyond the now</h2>
<p>Personally, Zuma has less to fear from retirement than most seem to realise. A retired South African president automatically <a href="http://www.news24.com/World/News/All-the-presidents-expenses-20090204">receives a pension equal to 100% of their salary</a>. And there’s a strong likelihood that any ANC-led government would <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-resist-an-amnesty-deal-for-zuma-68101">grant him amnesty</a> against possible prosecution for corruption or other possible charges.</p>
<p>The biggest consequence of Zuma’s removal would be that his cronies and agents in state departments and parastatals would be purged. This would mean the end of Zuma’s reign, heralding a new era of honest government and better use of taxpayers’ money.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the ANC, but writes this in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>
A revolt within the African National Congress against South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma has reached new heights. He has survived, but the repercussions will be felt for some time to come.
Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western Cape
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/61881
2016-07-13T12:18:19Z
2016-07-13T12:18:19Z
Social media is putting pregnant women under pressure to look perfect
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130416/original/image-20160713-12377-1fsyd6z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's no such thing as a perfect pregnancy body.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/bed-bedroom-photo-baby-69097/">www.pexels.com/Josh Willink</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is no doubt that social media and its instant availability has changed the way we engage with the outside world. As the popularity and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-newsfeed-influence-idUSKCN0ZF1P2">influence of sites such as Facebook</a> continue to grow, few can argue that these are not among the most important tools for social contact in the modern world. </p>
<p>At any time of life, whatever we may experience, social media has become a platform to reach out to others going through the same thing. Pregnant women, for example, can reach out to other expectant mothers who are <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/965670403444322/">due to give birth around the same time</a> as them, and track each others’ progress, problems and proud moments, providing support along the way.</p>
<p>However, there is a downside to this constant, carefully selected communication. High levels of Facebook use have been linked to increased <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0747563212003172">depression, anxiety and poor life satisfaction</a>, with those who use it a lot finding their <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0055162">mood decreases afterwards</a>. </p>
<p>It’s very easy to see why this is the case: Facebook isn’t reality; it’s made up of usually carefully constructed highlights of people’s lives. Posts are all about the latest parties, purchases and happy relationships, and less about sitting home alone on a Friday night in your pyjamas. Even if deep down we realise Facebook is a false presentation of the world our peers live in, the risk of making negative self-comparisons is still high. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"639227617879719936"}"></div></p>
<p>One of the biggest negative impacts of Facebook is the <a href="https://www.strath.ac.uk/research/subjects/psychology/socialmediapicturesmayleadtonegativebodyimages/">increase in body image dissatisfaction</a>, as users compare themselves to the literally billions of perfect photos of celebrities and our peers available to us with just a few clicks. Some might argue that these photos have always been available through traditional media, but social sharing sites make them more accessible. More than ten million photographs are uploaded onto Facebook <a href="https://causal.unc.edu/files/2011/08/Naimi2014BigDataRevolutionReview.pdf">worldwide every hour</a>, offering an immediate availability of new images that far surpasses that found in any magazine.</p>
<p>The issue of course is that many of these photos aren’t real. We are viewing images that are carefully selected, posed, filtered or altered in some way: Photoshop is no longer confined to magazines or professional websites, with a simple app, a person can rapidly change their image to become their own ideal.</p>
<p>Poor body image is not a good thing at the best of times: it can lead to low self esteem, damage relationships and increase the risk of poor health. Though often assumed to be a problem for mostly teens and young women, body image dissatisfaction can be a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/10/body-image-elderly-hidden-illness">problem for women of all ages</a> – even during pregnancy.</p>
<p>Pregnancy is of course a time of big changes to the body. Add to the growing stomach, sickness, heartburn and sore breasts and it’s no surprise that it is an uncomfortable time in a woman’s life. But while pregnancy was once viewed as an excuse to “eat for two” – which, incidentally, wasn’t a good thing either – growing numbers of pregnant women are now trying to limit the amount of weight they gain in a bid to get the “perfect” body.</p>
<p>In a recent study exploring pregnancy body image, we found that over half of the 269 women we surveyed had <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0266613816301073">concerns about what their pregnant body</a> looked like, how much weight they had gained and what their body would look like afterwards. Only a third “loved” how they looked or felt confident about their pregnant body; the rest worried about their changing shape and felt they were gaining too much weight. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"411007647328919552"}"></div></p>
<p>Potentially this trend could be caused by lots of factors, but our frequent and carefully constructed use of social media isn’t helping. Our research found that the more pregnant women used Facebook, the greater their body dissatisfaction, and the more likely they were to try and limit how much weight they gained. Directly, two thirds of women who used Facebook stated that they compared their body negatively to other pregnant women and celebrities using it, and that seeing photos of other pregnant women increased their dissatisfaction with their body. </p>
<p>The frequency of this dissatisfaction and attempt to limit weight gain is of concern for both the physical health and well-being of mum and baby during pregnancy. Gaining too little weight increases the risk of <a href="http://www.nature.com/ijo/journal/v30/n3/abs/0803184a.html">low birth weight, premature birth and even miscarriage</a>, and is associated with <a href="http://hpq.sagepub.com/content/20/4/413.short">a drop in self esteem</a> in itself. Research has also shown that when mums have poor body image during pregnancy they are also <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0266613814001715">less likely to breastfeed</a> which can further increase the risk of health issues for mum and baby. </p>
<p>Deep down most people know that we only put our best photos on Facebook and many use apps to alter their photos, but this isn’t always clear. Pregnant women are increasingly feeling the pressure to conform to a slender ideal at a time when weight gain and body changes are not only normal but part of helping their baby grow and develop. </p>
<p>Womens’ changing shape during pregnancy and what this represents is something to be treasured. Forget “eating for two”, the world needs to realise that women are living for two and that the true beauty in this lies in the stretch marks, wobbly bits and swollen ankles - whether that looks “good” on social media or not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61881/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
Amy Brown has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council for her work exploring infant feeding</span></em></p>
Women are no longer eating for two – or one, for that matter.
Amy Brown, Associate Professor of Child Public Health, Swansea University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/56713
2016-04-15T09:58:15Z
2016-04-15T09:58:15Z
Why the Internet isn’t making us smarter – and how to fight back
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118606/original/image-20160413-22040-hpbkj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Do you ever feel like this? It's not helping you get smarter...</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EEG_Recording_Cap.jpg">Chris Hope</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the hours since I first sat down to write this piece, my laptop tells me the National Basketball Association has had to <a href="http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/04/11/turns-out-the-nba-havent-cancelled-2017-all-star-game-in-north-carolina-after-all/">deny</a> that it threatened to cancel its 2017 All-Star Game over a new anti-LGBT law in North Carolina – a story repeated by many news sources including the Associated Press. The authenticity of that <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/snowboarder-bear-chase-video-fake-200443886.html">viral video</a> of a bear chasing a female snowboarder in Japan has been called into question. And, no, Ted Cruz is <a href="http://www.snopes.com/false-ted-cruz-married-cousin/">not married</a> to his third cousin. It’s just one among an onslaught of half-truths and even pants-on-fire lies coming as we rev up for the 2016 American election season. </p>
<p>The longer I study human psychology, the more impressed I am with the rich tapestry of knowledge each of us owns. We each have a brainy weave of facts, figures, rules and stories that allows us to address an astonishing range of everyday challenges. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079742115000341">Contemporary research</a> celebrates just how vast, organized, interconnected and durable that knowledge base is. </p>
<p>That’s the good news. The bad news is that our brains overdo it. Not only do they store helpful and essential information, they are also receptive to <a href="https://psmag.com/we-are-all-confident-idiots-56a60eb7febc#.fhiir4sgp">false belief and misinformation</a>.</p>
<p>Just in biology alone, many people believe that spinach is a good source of iron (<a href="http://www.bestthinking.com/articles/science/chemistry/biochemistry/the-spinach-popeye-iron-decimal-error-myth-is-finally-busted">sorry, Popeye</a>), that we use less than 10 percent of our brains (no, it’s <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-people-only-use-10-percent-of-their-brains/">too energy-guzzling to allow</a> that), and that some people suffer hypersensitivity to electromagnetic radiation (for which there is <a href="http://www.who.int/peh-emf/publications/facts/fs296/en/">no scientific evidence</a>). </p>
<p>But here’s the more concerning news. Our access to information, both good and bad, has only increased as our fingertips have gotten into the act. With computer keyboards and smartphones, we now have access to an Internet containing a vast store of information much bigger than any individual brain can carry – and that’s not always a good thing.</p>
<h2>Better access doesn’t mean better information</h2>
<p>This access to the Internet’s far reaches should permit us to be smarter and better informed. People certainly assume it. A recent <a href="https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xge-0000070.pdf">Yale study</a> showed that Internet access causes people to hold inflated, illusory impressions of just how smart and well-informed they are. </p>
<p>But there’s a twofold problem with the Internet that compromises its limitless promise. </p>
<p>First, just like our brains, it is receptive to misinformation. In fact, the World Economic Forum lists “<a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2013/risk-case-1/digital-wildfires-in-a-hyperconnected-world/">massive digital misinformation</a>” as a main threat to society. A <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1298003/">survey</a> of 50 “weight loss” websites found that only three provided sound diet advice. <a href="http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=209631">Another</a> of roughly 150 YouTube videos about vaccination found that only half explicitly supported the procedure. </p>
<p>Rumor-mongers, politicians, vested interests, a sensationalizing media and people with intellectual axes to grind all inject false information into the Internet.</p>
<p>So do a lot of well-intentioned but misinformed people. In fact, <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/3/554">a study published</a> in the January 2016 Proceedings of National Academy of Science documented just how quickly dubious conspiracy theories spread across the Internet. Specifically, the researchers compared how quickly these rumors spread across Facebook relative to stories on scientific discoveries. Both conspiracy theories and scientific news spread quickly, with the majority of diffusion via Facebook for both types of stories happening within a day.</p>
<p>Making matters worse, misinformation is hard to distinguish from accurate fact. It often has the exact look and feel as the truth. In a series of <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23627747">studies</a> Elanor Williams, Justin Kruger and I published in the <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</em> in 2013, we asked students to solve problems in intuitive physics, logic and finance. Those who consistently relied on false facts or principles – and thus gave the exact same wrong answer to every problem – expressed just as much confidence in their conclusions as those who answered every single problem right. </p>
<p>For example, those who always thought a ball would continue to follow a curved path after rolling out of a bent tube (<a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/210/4474/1139">not true</a>) were virtually as certain as people who knew the right answer (the ball follows a straight path).</p>
<h2>Defend yourself</h2>
<p>So, how so we separate Internet truth from the false? </p>
<p>First, don’t assume misinformation is obviously distinguishable from true information. Be careful. If the matter is important, perhaps you can start your search with the Internet; just don’t end there. Consult and consider other sources of authority. There is a reason why your doctor suffered medical school, why your financial advisor studied to gain that license.</p>
<p>Second, don’t do what conspiracy theorists did in the Facebook study. They readily spread stories that <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/3/554">already fit their worldview</a>. As such, they practiced <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/confirmation_bias.htm">confirmation bias</a>, giving credence to evidence supporting what they already believed. As a consequence, the conspiracy theories they endorsed burrowed themselves into like-minded Facebook communities who rarely questioned their authenticity.</p>
<p>Instead, be a skeptic. <a href="http://amj.aom.org/content/32/4/745.short">Psychological research</a> shows that groups designating one or two of its members to play devil’s advocates – questioning whatever conclusion the group is leaning toward – make for better-reasoned decisions of greater quality.</p>
<p>If no one else is around, it pays to be your own devil’s advocate. Don’t just believe what the Internet has to say; question it. Practice a disconfirmation bias. If you’re looking up medical information about a health problem, don’t stop at the first diagnosis that looks right. Search for alternative possibilities. </p>
<h2>Seeking evidence to the contrary</h2>
<p>In addition, look for ways in which that diagnosis might be wrong. <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/1985-12023-001">Research</a> shows that “considering the opposite” – actively asking how a conclusion might be wrong – is a valuable exercise for reducing unwarranted faith in a conclusion.</p>
<p>After all, you should listen to Mark Twain, who, according to a <a href="http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/marktwain105716.html">dozen</a> <a href="http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/247.html">different</a> websites, warned us, “Be careful about reading health books. You may die of a misprint.” </p>
<p>Wise words, except a little more investigation reveals more detailed and researched sources with evidence that it wasn’t Mark Twain, but German physician <a href="http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/be_careful_about_reading_health_books_you_may_die_of_a_misprint">Markus Herz</a> who said them. I’m not surprised; in my Internet experience, I’ve learned to be wary of Twain quotes (Will Rogers, too). He was a brilliant wit, but he gets much too much credit for quotable quips.</p>
<p>Misinformation and true information often look awfully alike. The key to an informed life may not require <em>gathering</em> information as much as it does <em>challenging</em> the ideas you already have or have recently encountered. This may be an unpleasant task, and an unending one, but it is the best way to ensure that your brainy intellectual tapestry sports only true colors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Dunning has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the Templeton Foundation in the past. </span></em></p>
We now have access to an Internet containing a vast store of information much bigger than any individual brain can carry - and that’s not always a good thing.
David Dunning, Professor of Psychology, University of Michigan
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/55745
2016-03-14T10:06:24Z
2016-03-14T10:06:24Z
Is your March Madness bracket really better than mine?
<p>Participating in a March Madness bracket office pool this year? Don’t rely too much on experts’ picks or overestimate your chance of winning. </p>
<p>And if you’re feeling confident about your bracket, you should know that just the act of trying to predict the winner of each of the 63 games is enough to boost your confidence you’ll come out on top.</p>
<p>In one study, we gave <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dae_Hee_Kwak/publication/270765094_The_Overestimation_Phenomenon_in_a_Skill-Based_Gaming_Context_The_Case_of_March_Madness_Pools/links/54b684f60cf24eb34f6d28d4.pdf">empty brackets to 81 college students</a>. Half of them were specifically asked to fill out the bracket; the other half were given the bracket but not asked to fill it out. They all were asked to project their winning probabilities – if they had completed the bracket, how good they thought it was, and if they hadn’t, how good they could have made it if they had tried.</p>
<p>When we adjusted for participants’ past bracket experience and basketball knowledge, we found that people who filled out a bracket showed greater confidence in winning than those who did not make any selections. Simply putting some effort into making picks increased their belief in having a good chance of winning. </p>
<h2>The illusion of control</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The size of this bracket may indicate its maker’s confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/armydre2008/16671230120/in/photolist-rpbpU5-bDc9q4-9t4HD2-7KNKgW-ekYBsi-maGgaF-692d9z-maGXsc-maHSks-DiFqa-kWPbyu-rDrd3Y-9qJPvd-68ExZe-9sXrXr-maGe9g-kxafds-6cRUtB-bERX2K-e5oXYQ-66mULr-e41gYK-br8HgQ-kE45ea-kE4xPD-kE6euQ-68TWhn-kE4uVT-kE4wZn-kE42uH-kE4xax-9s2weT-kE4wEV-kE41H2-kE6enf-kE43kv-kE6bnC-kE6fBj-61Pbsn-kE6bTN-kE4yZz-kE43HV-kE6g6A-kE4AZM-kE41CT-kE43Ug-kE4AoM-kE42mX-kE6eRm-kE4B1D">frankieleon/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My interviews with participants showed that filling out a bracket will also encourage consumers to watch more games with heightened levels of arousal and excitement. This is critical for television networks, and for sponsors who spend millions of dollars on rights and advertising. No wonder the NCAA, which strictly bans all forms of legal or illegal gambling on college sports, releases a free downloadable “<a href="http://i.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release//sites/default/files/external/printable-bracket/2016/bracket-ncaa.pdf">Official Bracket</a>” every year.</p>
<p>Feeling confident is a good thing, as I teach my young son all the time, but not when you are gambling. We often make biased judgments, believing correct picks are due to “skill” but chalking up losses to “bad luck.” Such biasing judgments only <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyt.2013.00036/full">reinforce the illusory perception of control</a> over what is actually a random outcome.</p>
<p>Psychologists have found that “<a href="http://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/76_J_Occupational_Organizational_Psychology_53_(OCreevy).pdf">illusion of control</a>” is prevalent when chance is involved and has been widely examined in <a href="http://www.seeitmarket.com/the-art-of-trading-and-the-illusion-of-control-14679/">trading</a>, gambling and <a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/26/the-science-of-why-fantasy-sports-are-so-popular.aspx">fantasy sports</a>. Research has also found that <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/psycinfo/1998-00120-002">illusory perception in winning is heightened</a> when skill-relevant factors are involved, such as personal involvement, knowledge, competition and familiarity with the task.</p>
<h2>Confidence doesn’t improve accuracy, but does raise betting stakes</h2>
<p>March Madness brackets provide ample opportunities for basketball mavens to believe that they can make accurate predictions – even though that may not be the case.</p>
<p>You make personal selections, rely on stats and expert knowledge, and usually compete with your office mates or friends, or even online with anonymous others (such as on <a href="http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/">ESPN</a>). A second study, published alongside the first, showed this.</p>
<p>In 2011, we <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dae_Hee_Kwak/publication/270765094_The_Overestimation_Phenomenon_in_a_Skill-Based_Gaming_Context_The_Case_of_March_Madness_Pools/links/54b684f60cf24eb34f6d28d4.pdf">ran a mock tournament</a> with real prizes (US$100 gift card) involving college basketball fans. We wanted to see if people who were more confident about their picks were actually more correct than their less confident peers. After all the participants made their selections, we asked how confident they were that they would be in the top 10 percent for overall bracket accuracy by the end of the tournament.</p>
<p>Based on their self-rating of confidence in winning, we grouped participants into high- and low-confidence sections and tracked their actual performance after three weeks of the tournament. Interestingly, we found no difference between these groups: that confidence had no effect on improving accuracy.</p>
<p>Moreover, the confident fans would have lost 2.56 times more money than the less confident group if they had actually been betting on their results. The members of the more confident group said they would wager an average of $22.95, while those who were less confident projected betting $8.85 on average.</p>
<h2>Perfection is impossible, even with expert knowledge</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds">In the same year</a>, three basketball analysts from ESPN, CBS and <em>Sports Illustrated</em> made their Final Four predictions. Only one analyst correctly picked one school out of the four; when we compared the picks of <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html">so-called “experts”</a> to the nonexperts in our study, we found neither was more successful.</p>
<p>So confidence in winning a pool does not necessarily mean that you will win some cash or free lunch from your colleague. <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/warren-buffett-billion-bracket-ncaa-tournament-perfect-odds-of-perfect">Warren Buffett once announced he would give $1 billion</a> to anyone who picked a perfect bracket. </p>
<p>No one ever came up with any brackets even near perfect, which shouldn’t be surprising. The chance for the perfect bracket is somewhere north of <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/duke-math-professor-says-odds-of-a-perfect-bracket-are-one-in-2-4-trillion">1 in 120 billion</a> (or maybe a couple trillion, or even a few quintillion). But we know for sure that people will still come back this year and fill out their brackets online, offline or on their smartphones.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O6Smkv11Mj4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">DePaul University Professor of Mathematics Jeffrey Bergen discusses probability and brackets.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While we found that overconfidence does not translate into winning, we did learn that it boosts enjoyment.</p>
<p>It is the excitement from overconfidence that brings people back to the bracket every year. Fill out a bracket and boost your confidence: that is perhaps all you need for enjoying watching the tournament with your colleagues and friends. Don’t get too serious, though. You might end up buying lunch for your office mate who picked his teams solely based on jersey colors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dae Hee Kwak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Simply filling out a bracket – even with random or uninformed choices – is enough to boost your confidence in success, and to get you to put more money on the line.
Dae Hee Kwak, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Michigan
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/54451
2016-03-02T11:21:06Z
2016-03-02T11:21:06Z
Voters who oppose politicians are the most active
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113469/original/image-20160301-12111-1n2xnyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Opposing a candidate is more confidence-building, and action-driving, than supporting one. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/perspective/19587772601/in/photolist-vQUsng-asdpjT-asdseF-asdpKv-bAS7uC-oaJPbb-nTkaa9-oax1nH-asdtya-asg287-C3NwYc-asdqua-vw8hXw-asdAtn-vNV35Z-asg5Dh-asdryp-asgfvA-asg91N-asfTRd-asg5mQ-asdtU8-asg78q-vRcq6Z-vykKJR-vNfiR1-CZ7Jbm-nTkZ22-6q23iQ-oaw9CH-6WnVQ4-uTLYJC-vLcQPw-vMWj3L-vQCYHt-vNCdu4-vMRdHh-vycRvL-nTjZfG-nTkLzE-nTkL4j-uTf7fw-AZJrTr-AXxww9-CZBaPf-uTeQaA-vN5moS-kSeo-Ch5T7Z-C5vMC6">Elvert Barnes/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>“My opponent is a liar. And, he can’t be trusted.”</em></p>
<p>Did you ever wonder why there are so many political attack ads? Of course, politicians have the obvious desire to tear down the opposition in the hopes of building up their own position. </p>
<p>But there is another dynamic at work: candidates and campaigns are seeking to exploit the lesser-known psychological advantage that opposing the other candidate has over supporting one’s own.</p>
<p>On candidates and issues alike, people can think of themselves as a supporter or as an opposer. If we assume the current front-runners become the presidential nominees, this is the difference between “I support Hillary Clinton” and “I oppose Donald Trump.” Both positions would likely result in the same voting intentions, but one is more likely to inspire action, such as participating in a demonstration, contributing funds or actually casting a ballot. </p>
<p>Our research into the question of how voters think of themselves has discovered that opposition inspires more confidence in one’s position than support. Confidence helps to turn judgments into actions. This helps explain why political attack ads are a crucial tool in politicians’ arsenals – and why voters are bombarded by negative messages on the way to the voting booths.</p>
<h2>Perspective leads to confidence, and then to action</h2>
<p>It is not that opposers are different kinds of people (negative Nellies or pessimists) than supporters (Pollyannas or optimists). Nor is it that opposers necessarily have different reasons behind their views than supporters. For example, those who oppose discrimination may not have had more personal experience with the issue than those who support equality, nor are they necessarily more emotional about the issue. Yet, being anti-discrimination is more confidence-inducing than being pro-equality. </p>
<p>Our research shows that if a person merely changes her view of her position, from saying she supports something to saying she is against its opposite, her likelihood of behavior changes. The perspective shift increases the confidence she has in her position. Our research also shows that people are more likely to act on their attitudes when they are held with confidence. For example, if two people like a new car to the same extent, the person who is more sure of that feeling is more likely to buy the car.</p>
<p>As a test of this hypothesis in the context of a real election, we conducted a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard_Petty/publication/227671791_Exploring_the_ValenceFraming_Effect_Negative_Framing_Enhances_Attitude_Strength/links/02bfe50d05b168a61a000000.pdf">study</a> during gubernatorial campaigns in two East Coast states. In preelection surveys, a representative sample of potential voters was randomly asked about support or opposition to either the Republican or the Democratic candidate.</p>
<p>Typically, when Democratic voters were asked about the Democratic candidate, they would reply that they “supported” him, but if they were asked about the Republican candidate, they would reply that they “opposed” him. The inverse situation was typical for Republican voters. </p>
<p>Our survey questions were designed to get voters to momentarily think about their position as either supporting their preferred candidate or opposing the disfavored candidate. This simple framing did not affect how much people liked their preferred candidate. But, it did influence how confident they were in that view and their intended behaviors. Voters who focused on how much they <em>opposed</em> the other candidate were generally more confident in their preference than voters who were asked about how much they <em>supported</em> their candidate.</p>
<p>Even more importantly, thinking about their opposition to the other candidate made voters report being more likely to engage in favorable behaviors toward their own candidate such as volunteering for him, advocating to others and going out to vote for him. That is, when we got voters to focus on the candidate they opposed, the voters appeared to have deeper conviction and reported a greater willingness to be politically active.</p>
<p>Our finding that being an opposer is more powerful than being a supporter fits with other psychological research showing that negative traits and information are <a href="http://assets.csom.umn.edu/assets/71516.pdf">typically weighed more heavily</a> in judgments than positive traits and with the <a href="http://pages.uoregon.edu/harbaugh/Readings/GBE/Risk/Kahneman%201979%20E,%20Prospect%20Theory.pdf">prospect theory</a> notion that losses loom larger than gains.</p>
<h2>Anger is stronger than fear</h2>
<p>But what if you are competing in a primary rather than a general election? In that scenario, it’s often more difficult to get voters of your party to actively oppose other candidates from the same party, though as this election cycle shows, it can happen! Is there a way to enhance the confidence voters have in your candidacy?</p>
<p>Our research indicates that the reasons people support you can influence their confidence and tendencies to act on your behalf. For example, if people support you because they are angry at the establishment, or government, or immigrants, this <a href="https://repositorio.uam.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10486/666275/emotion_petty_ce_2015_ps.pdf?sequence=1">anger can fuel them to feel confident</a> about supporting you.</p>
<p>Although both anger and fear can influence what particular positions people take on issues, anger is a confident action-oriented emotion, whereas fear is more passive and doubt-oriented. Voters who support a candidate because they are angry at something are more likely to be confident and take action than voters who are frightened. </p>
<p>According to one <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-nevada-republican-caucuses-entrance-poll-analysis/story?id=37145367">recent poll</a>, six in 10 Nevada caucus-goers this year described themselves as angry. Voter anger may be one reason why turnout in many of the primaries so far has <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-do-the-voting-turnout-numbers-say-about-the-2016-presidential-race/">set records</a>.</p>
<p>In sum, our recent research has demonstrated that knowing how much voters like particular candidates, though important, is not the whole story. It also matters how confident people are in their preferences, because confidence is what turns attitudes into action. Knowing whether candidate preferences are driven by support or opposition, and by anger or fear, can help more accurately determine who is likely to donate money, show up for caucuses and ultimately vote for the chosen candidate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Petty receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>
Opposition inspires more confidence in one’s position than support and also helps to turn judgments into actions. This helps explain why attack ads are a crucial tool in politicians’ arsenals.
Richard Petty, Professor of Psychology, The Ohio State University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.