tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/crime-rates-16114/articlesCrime rates – The Conversation2023-10-30T01:20:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136552023-10-30T01:20:36Z2023-10-30T01:20:36ZIs Australia in the grips of a youth crime crisis? This is what the data says<p>In recent months, there has been increasing focus on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-15/teenage-burglars-behind-rise-in-victoria-youth-crime/102483786">crime committed by young people</a> in Australia. Politicians are coming under more pressure to respond to these well-publicised criminal acts and the public perceptions that Australia is in the grips of a youth crime crisis.</p>
<p>In Queensland for instance, a group called Voice for Victims has been <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/protesters-call-for-zero-tolerance-on-youth-crime/news-story/52d9c2ef69cc42fcfcf76a074531a115">holding protests</a> and recently <a href="https://youtu.be/aqVKt0zv4YM?si=XRCaGPvef__atJ2k">met</a> with Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to push their demands for a stronger law and order response and higher assistance payments to victims.</p>
<p>But is youth crime actually increasing? Are we at crisis point? It depends on how we define a crisis and what the data says.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1627781297644126208"}"></div></p>
<h2>Youth offending crime data</h2>
<p>The minimum <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-should-not-rush-to-raise-the-age-of-criminal-responsibility-in-australia-189463">age of criminal responsibility </a> is ten years old in all states and territories, except the Northern Territory which recently <a href="https://nt.gov.au/law/young-people/raising-minimum-age-of-criminal-responsibility">raised the age</a> to 12. Young people between the ages of ten and 13 can only be held criminally responsible, though, if it can be shown they knew what they were doing was seriously wrong. </p>
<p>In Victoria, <a href="https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/alleged-offender-incidents-2">crime statistics</a> show that from 2014 to 2023, the rate of incidents involving youth offenders has been trending downward (despite some fluctuations).</p>
<p>However, from 2021-22 to 2022-23, there was a 24% increase in the rate of incidents committed by youth offenders under the age of 17, per 100,000 of population.</p>
<p>Likewise, data from <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_pages/Young-people.aspx">New South Wales</a> from 2011 to 2022 shows the rate of ten to 17 year olds being proceeded against by police has also been trending downward. This means the suspected offenders either faced court or a Youth Justice Conference, or received a caution from police. </p>
<p>However, from 2021 to 2022, the rate of young people being proceeded against by police increased by 7%, per 100,000 of population. The rate of those proceeding to court for more serious offences increased by 11% for the same period. </p>
<p>And the 2021-22 <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/issues/7856/crime-report-qld-2021-22.pdf">Queensland Crime Report</a> showed a 13.7% increase in the number of children aged ten to 17 being proceeded against by police, compared to the previous year. The total number of youth offenders reached 52,742, the highest number in ten years. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3yfOQgHA-kY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Queensland premier faces questions about youth crime in a 9 News interview.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In most of the other states and territories, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-offenders/2021-22#data-downloads">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> data shows the youth offending rates have trended downward over the past decade. From 2020-21 to 2021-22, these rates have either remained steady or decreased in most states and territories. Only the Northern Territory showed a larger increase of 13%. </p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>It should be noted the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-offenders/latest-release#queensland">ABS youth offender rate</a> only counts how many unique offenders came into contact with police – each offender is only counted once, regardless of how many times they may have offended in the period. This means it does not provide an indication of overall recidivism rates by individual young people. </p>
<p>The ABS does, however, provide other <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-offenders/2021-22">data on recidivism</a>. In 2021-22, the proportion of youth offenders proceeded against by police more than once increased in several localities, including Queensland (10%), Tasmania (17%), the NT (5%) and the ACT (8.5%). The other states showed only minor changes from the previous year. </p>
<p>Queensland courts can declare a youth offender a serious repeat offender under <a href="http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/qld/consol_act/yja1992185/s150a.html">the Youth Justice Act</a>. These young people are identified using a special index, which considers a young person’s offending history (including the frequency and seriousness), the time a young person has spent in custody and their age.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.courts.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/756649/cc-ar-2021-2022.pdf">2021-22 in Queensland</a>, nearly half of all youth offences were committed by serious repeat offenders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-go-shopping-without-police-coming-north-queenslands-at-risk-youth-feel-excluded-and-heavily-surveilled-211885">'We can’t go shopping without police coming': north Queensland's at-risk youth feel excluded and heavily surveilled</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Which offences are showing increases?</h2>
<p>In Queensland, the <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/issues/7856/crime-report-qld-2021-22.pdf">most prevalent offences</a> for young people in 2021-22 included theft, break and enter, and stolen vehicles. </p>
<p>Even though only 18% of all offenders in Queensland were under the age of 18, these youth offenders accounted for more than 50% of all break and enter, robbery and stolen vehicle offenders during the year. For stolen vehicles, the number of youth offenders almost doubled between 2012 and 2022. </p>
<p>In NSW, the <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_pages/Young-people.aspx">most common offences</a> for young people in 2022 were theft, break and enter, and stalking or harassment. Compared to 2021, young people proceeded against by police for thefts had increased by 21% and for break and enters by 55%. </p>
<p>And in Victoria, the most <a href="https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/alleged-offender-incidents-2">common incidents</a> for youth offenders in 2022-23 were crimes against the person (a 29% increase compared to 2021-2022), property offences (36% increase) and public offences such as public nuisance, and disorderly and offensive conduct (29% increase). </p>
<h2>A crisis is a matter of perception</h2>
<p>A sense of crisis is created to some degree by not only rising crime rates, but also a sense of helplessness felt by the community and a perceived failing of the government to provide for a safe and secure community. </p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-022-02924-7">How the public perceives crime issues</a> is just as important as the reality of crime trends themselves. The <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2023/justice/police-services">Commonwealth Report on Government Services</a> provides a snapshot of perceptions of safety. In 2021-22, 89% of people felt safe at home at night, while just 32.7% felt safe on public transport and 53.8% on the street. </p>
<p>Last week, a survey of Queenslanders <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/yougov-poll-shows-queenslanders-living-in-state-of-fear-over-youth-crime-epidemic/news-story/39cb70d4de22debe1ababdf63d88331b">showed</a> nearly half of respondents believed youth crime was increasing or at a crisis point. Three-quarters of respondents had taken steps to improve their home security in the last year.</p>
<p>In Queensland, the government is responding to these concerns with tougher measures. It has controversially proposed using police watchhouses to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-23/qld-watch-house-youth-crime-human-rights-prison/102767700">detain youth offenders</a>, overriding its own Human Rights Act with a special provision only meant to be used in exceptional circumstances. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-not-only-trampling-the-rights-of-children-it-is-setting-a-concerning-legal-precedent-212377">Queensland is not only trampling the rights of children, it is setting a concerning legal precedent</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The government said this was necessary because the state’s <a href="https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/bills/2022/3118/Child-Protection-(Offender-Reporting-and-Offender-Prohibition-Order)-and-Other-Legislation-Amendment-Bill-2022---SoC-to-Govt-ACID-4d7c.pdf">youth detention centres were full</a> and, due to an increase in serious youth offenders, it needed to use police watchhouses to detain them to ensure the community is protected.</p>
<p>Youth justice advocates warn these watchhouses, however, are not suitable places for children, in part, because they could be held with adults and many of the facilities lack exercise yards, natural light and visitor facilities.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1695911700938289280"}"></div></p>
<p>Given the recent protests in Queensland, it is reasonable to conclude there is a perception of a crisis in the community over the inability of governments to deal adequately with youth crime, specifically repeat offenders. </p>
<p>While action needs to be taken in the short term to address community safety concerns, all states and territories also need to address the longer-term, multi-factoral causes of youth crime, such as truancy and disengagement from school, drug usage, domestic violence in the home and poor parenting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Certain offences have shown increases in Victoria, NSW and Queensland over the past couple years, but the overall youth crime trend lines have been declining in the past decade.Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminal Justice and Criminology, Bond UniversityGaelle Brotto, Assistant Professor Criminology and Criminal JusticeTyler Cawthray, Assistant Professor in Criminology and Criminal Justice, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2110872023-08-13T13:36:45Z2023-08-13T13:36:45ZTo reduce rising crime rates, Canada needs to invest more in social services<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541565/original/file-20230807-27499-r8df14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C53%2C8946%2C4877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Crime Severity Index is calculated like a crime rate, but different crimes are given a different weight, or importance, based on their severity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/to-reduce-rising-crime-rates-canada-needs-to-invest-more-in-social-services" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Every summer, Statistics Canada releases crime rate and crime severity data for the previous year. This year, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230727/dq230727b-eng.htm?">Canada’s Crime Severity Index (CSI)</a> increased by 4.3 per cent, the violent CSI increased by 4.6 per cent, and the non-violent CSI increased by 4.1 per cent. Moreover, aside from a drop during the COVID-19 pandemic, these indices have been on the rise since 2014.</p>
<p>An April 2023 poll found that <a href="https://leger360.com/surveys/legers-north-american-tracker-april-13-2023/">65 per cent of Canadians</a> felt crime has gotten worse compared to before the pandemic. Conservative Party leader <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/poilievre-blames-rising-violence-in-alberta-canada-on-his-political-opponents-1.6354594">Pierre Poilievre has criticized the Liberal government</a> for the rising crime figures in recent months. </p>
<p>Canada’s new justice minister, Arif Virani, said it was <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-s-new-justice-minister-to-tackle-perceived-lack-of-safety-from-crime-1.6501641">empirically unlikely</a> that Canadians are less safe, but that the government would act to address feelings of growing insecurity.</p>
<p>But what is the CSI and what do changes in crime stats mean for Canadians?</p>
<h2>What is the Crime Severity Index?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cnmcs-plcng/cn5373-eng.pdf">CSI was introduced in 2009</a> and represented the first major change in measuring crime in Canada since the 1960s. Its purpose was to identify changes in the seriousness or severity of crime reported to the police. </p>
<p>The CSI is calculated like a crime rate, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-004-x/2009001/part-partie1-eng.htm">but different crimes are given a different weight, or importance, based on their severity</a>. Without this kind of system, a community that has 10 low-level assaults will have the same violent crime rate as another that has 10 homicides because each incident would be given the same weight. </p>
<p>The CSI accounts for this by using different weights for different crime types: approximately 80 for <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-224-x/2008000/dd-eng.htm">assault level 1</a>, 7,000 for homicide and one for gambling. These weights are based on sentencing decisions in the court system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing Canada's crime severity index between 1998 and 2022. The graph shows a decrease until 2014 followed by a slight increase in subsequent years." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541310/original/file-20230804-17921-t4cr8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police-reported crime severity indexes in Canada from 1998 to 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230727/cg-b001-eng.htm">(Statistics Canada)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding the data</h2>
<p>At first glance, the CSI is great because it allows us to determine which areas experience more violence. However, there are at least three issues when considering what changes in the CSI mean for most Canadians.</p>
<p>First, the CSI must be considered over longer periods of time than year-to-year fluctuations. We now have the CSI for 1998-2022, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62-001-x/2018001/info-eng.htm">25 years of data</a>. Yes, the CSI has been increasing since 2014, but it is still much lower than it was 25 years ago. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-017-0076-y">Crime has been falling around the world</a>, including Canada, since about 1990. It may be the case that 2014, for Canada, was just the low point for crime. Because of this, relatively small changes in incidents will have large percentage changes.</p>
<p>Second, because the CSI is calculated in a similar fashion to crime rates, places with lower populations will be “punished” by the CSI. For example, in a city of one million people, one homicide will lead to a homicide rate of 0.1 per 100,000 people. However, in a city of 15,000 people, one homicide will lead to a rate of 6.67 per 100,000 people. </p>
<p>Now if you add in the weights used in the CSI, this disparity becomes magnified. To be clear, the math is not wrong — it is just that the statistic has its limitations. The CSI is fine for Canada, its provinces and larger metropolitan centres. But, for the rest of the country, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12703">the CSI should be interpreted with caution</a>.</p>
<p>Third, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-016-9295-8">crime is usually concentrated in specific areas</a>. Across the world, including Canada, one-half of crime reported to the police occurs in approximately five per cent of the city. These places are, generally speaking, areas that experience more poverty, mental health and addiction problems, and other social challenges. </p>
<p>In short, those who are already suffering most, especially post-pandemic, are being victimized more with these increases in crime in Canada; this has been shown in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-021-09495-6">Vancouver</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2022.101881">Saskatoon</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign that reads Statistics Canada in front of a tall grey building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541564/original/file-20230807-35364-68n6bz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The CSI is calculated in a similar fashion to crime rates, which means rates in areas with lower populations can appear higher in the data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reducing crime</h2>
<p>What should our takeaway be here? We need to be careful of how we interpret the CSI. Crime has been increasing the past eight years: homicide, sexual assault, assault (particularly with a weapon) and vehicle theft are all increasing more than average. So, despite my caveats, crime has been increasing of late, particularly violent crimes. </p>
<p>The notable common thread in all of the media coverage of these violent attacks is the presence of mental health issues, addiction, homelessness and poverty. How did we get here? Over the past 40 years, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2020-007">conservative governments</a> have defunded <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/welfare-state">social programs and social services</a>.</p>
<p>A result of these changes has been a decrease in social welfare and increases in social ills. Where we are today is the result of a 40-year process that we cannot expect to reverse in short order. We need to reinvest in social programs and services, knowing it will take time to see an impact. </p>
<p>Putting government funding back into social services is a large component of the <a href="https://defundthepolice.org/">Defund the Police</a> movement. Rather than continuing to spend on <a href="https://theconversation.com/data-shows-that-police-involved-deaths-in-canada-are-on-the-rise-201443">reactive models</a> such as policing that do little more than criminalize poverty and disadvantage, we need to reinvest in preventive strategies that actually work.</p>
<p>To prevent crime, governments need to invest more in existing social welfare programs and reestablish social services such as basic income.</p>
<p>This spending on social welfare services and basic income should be viewed positively across the political spectrum as well. The provision of basic income and social services would both <a href="https://lorimer.ca/adults/product/basic-income-for-canadians-2/">support vulnerable populations and be cost-effective</a>. </p>
<p>If we are concerned about crime and its severity, we should support reinvesting public funds into preventative strategies such as housing, mental health care, basic income and addiction services.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211087/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Andresen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent data from Statistics Canada shows crime rates in Canada rising. Crime has become a hot-button political issue in Canadian cities. But what does the data actually mean?Martin Andresen, Professor of Criminology, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040542023-05-09T11:56:06Z2023-05-09T11:56:06ZKidnapping in Nigeria: criminalising ransom payment isn’t working - families need support<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524076/original/file-20230503-176-5xqprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Parents and relatives of students from the Federal College of Forestry Mechanization in Kaduna, who were kidnapped, hold placards during a demonstration in Abuja on May 4, 2021.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kidnapping for ransom has become a national <a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-at-risk-of-being-kidnapped-in-nigeria-184217">security threat</a> in Nigeria. How it’s done varies from targeted individuals, to indiscriminate kidnappings and mass kidnapping in schools and communities.</p>
<p>And there has been a growing body of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10926771.2019.1628155">research</a> on the subject. However, there remains a gap in the understanding of how families mobilise resources and deliver ransom to kidnappers.</p>
<p>To fill this gap, my <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jude-Momodu">co-researcher</a> and I combined our expertise, mine on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oludayo-tade-244002">science of criminality and the victims of crime in Nigeria</a> and his on peace and conflict.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01639625.2023.2197548">study</a> interrogated the roles that families play in finding support and in raising ransom money and ensuring it is delivered to kidnappers to get their loved ones released from captivity.</p>
<p>This information is important to appreciate the experiences, challenges, and coping strategies of those with family members who have been kidnapped. It can help to design post traumatic therapy for victims who have been rescued, as well as those who are close to them, and who may have been traumatised by the kidnap incidence.</p>
<p>We concluded from our findings that the Nigerian government’s decision to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/27/nigeria-outlaws-ransom-payments-abduction-punishable-by-death">criminalise</a> ransom payment by families missed the point because it fails to address the protection of potential victims. It should be revisited.</p>
<h2>The study</h2>
<p>Our study focused on the Adamawa State in northeast Nigeria, where at least <a href="https://www.blueprint.ng/kidnapping-adamawa-residents-abandon-homes/">300 people</a> were kidnapped in 2019. </p>
<p>We interviewed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01639625.2023.2197548">12 people</a>, through referrals. The sample size is appropriate for a research of this nature due to the confidence building process required to secure participation from, already traumatised, families and friends of people who have been kidnapped. </p>
<p>The people we interviewed included ransom negotiators, a pastor of the church of one of the victims, two police officers from the Force Intelligence Bureau and a Divisional Police Officer, one State Security Service agent, two wives of kidnapped people and five released kidnapped persons.</p>
<p>Our study showed that ransom negotiators were either nominated by families or by the person kidnapped. Kidnappers used threats and the beating of captives to unsettle families and pressure them to raise ransoms.</p>
<p>Family members raised ransoms through family, church and community donations, and through loans. Wives of kidnapped persons coped with spiritual support from church, experiences of others who faced similar situation, and counselling from significant others. Below we outline some of the nuances of our findings.</p>
<h2>Finding support</h2>
<p>People’s experience varied according to the relationship they had with the victims. For those at the scene of the kidnapping, the emotions and trauma experienced was heightened. </p>
<p>Ill-health, age, and ability to withstand pressure also increased the burden on family. </p>
<p>Our participants unpacked the support mechanisms they used to strengthen and give hope to the immediate family of the kidnapped person. </p>
<p>The church was a pillar of support for some. Others turned to family members, friends and neighbours. Others took loans to pay for the release of their family members.</p>
<p>Friends and brothers risked their lives to negotiate with kidnappers as well as take the ransom to the den of kidnappers. </p>
<h2>What’s usually needed</h2>
<p>We found that organising for the release of the kidnapped involved the following:</p>
<p><strong>Support systems:</strong> The immediate family of the kidnapped person would need a support system. This included emotional support as well as ensuring that the family had food to eat. The church provided spiritual support.</p>
<p><strong>Ransom negotiation team:</strong> Selecting or nominating the ransom negotiator was done by a person in the kidnappers’ den or by the family. In some cases, those kidnapped would be asked to drop names of people who could bring ransom money to the kidnappers. </p>
<p>One kidnapping victim gave the name of his father because the father was already a retiree and could mobilise family members to rally round and raise any amount. One nominated his childhood friend. </p>
<p><strong>Role of religious leaders:</strong> Spiritual support was provided by the church (prayer and empathising with victim’s family members). Our sample did not include people of other religious persuasions.</p>
<p><strong>Fund raising:</strong> Negotiators reported that they eventually mobilised and paid between 271,232 Naira (US$651.49) and 1,807,104 Naira (US$4,343.29) ransom depending on how well they could bargain and how the family cooperated. They highlighted the need to ensure that a wrong signal was not sent to kidnappers about the financial capacity of the family to prevent future kidnapping. Negotiators faced a variety of pressures. They had to deal with the family of the victims, their own families and the kidnappers who would beat the victims in the middle of negotiations. </p>
<h2>What needs to be done</h2>
<p>The family and their religious and social groups are vital players in the processes leading to the freedom of the captive through ransom mobilisation and delivery. This shows that the African kinship tie is still very strong especially when a member is going through difficulty. </p>
<p>Victims of kidnapping need supportive, coordinated, and organised families not to only negotiate and mobilise ransom but to also manage and cooperate with the kidnappers to ensure a safe release and return. </p>
<p>There is also the need for a post-traumatic counselling for the freed kidnapped victim, their spouses and children. </p>
<p>We concluded that it’s important to provide policies that support families and victims of kidnapping. And that the government must revisit the ban on payment of ransoms. The real issue is to prevent kidnapping. The Nigerian Government must discharge its responsibility to protect to Nigerians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oludayo Tade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A lot is said about kidnapping for ransom in Nigeria but little is known about how families mobilise resources and deliver ransom to kidnappers.Oludayo Tade, Sociologist/Criminologist/Victimologist and Media Communication Expert, University of IbadanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2027302023-04-03T05:12:14Z2023-04-03T05:12:14ZAustralia’s homicide rate is down over 50% from the 1990s, despite a small blip during COVID<p>Australia’s homicide rate has continued its overall downward trajectory in the <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/sr/sr42">latest crime data</a> released last week.</p>
<p>In fact, in 2020-21, Australia recorded the second-lowest number of homicides since the Australian Institute of Criminology began compiling national statistics in 1989. </p>
<p>How does Australia compare with other nations? And do our perceptions of crime match the reality of Australia becoming a generally safer place to live?</p>
<h2>Homicide in Australia</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/homicide">National Homicide Monitoring Program</a> is the only national data collection program for homicide incidents, victims and offenders. </p>
<p>According to the most recent report, there were 210 homicide incidents reported in Australia between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, with 263 identified offenders. There were 221 homicide victims, nearly 70% of whom were men. Only nine incidents involved multiple victims.</p>
<p>This was the second-lowest annual homicide rate (0.82 per 100,000 people) since 1989-90. This period (2020-21) was at the height of the COVID pandemic, when lockdowns and other restrictions were in place in various localities. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1640475308104232961"}"></div></p>
<p>Homicides had ticked upwards the previous year (2019-20), which included the start of the pandemic when lockdowns were similarly in place. There were 261 homicides reported that year, about 1.02 per 100,000 people.</p>
<p>While it’s difficult to firmly establish a direct causal relationship between coronavirus restrictions and crime rates, the 2019-20 homicide data does appear to be an aberration in the longer-term trend in Australia. </p>
<p>Overall, the national homicide rate has dropped steadily from a rate of 1.88 per 100,000 people in 1992-93 to 0.82 in 2020-21 – a decrease of 55% over nearly 30 years. </p>
<p>When it comes to the type of homicides occurring in Australia, domestic killings were the most common in 2020-21, accounting for about 36% of incidents. The rate of women killed in intimate partner homicides was 0.25 per 100,000 people, which is a decrease of 74% since 1989-90. </p>
<p>Men were overwhelmingly responsible for all homicides in 2020-21, accounting for 84% of perpetrators. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-crimes-have-seen-drastic-decreases-during-coronavirus-but-not-homicides-in-the-us-142718">Some crimes have seen drastic decreases during coronavirus — but not homicides in the US</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do we compare to the rest of the world?</h2>
<p>The 2019 <a href="https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/global-study-on-homicide.html">United Nations Global Study on Homicide</a> indicated that the world average homicide rate was 6.1 per 100,000 people in 2017, a rate inflated by the Americas with 17.2 per 100,000 people.</p>
<p>Data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm">United States</a> shows the homicide rate in that country was 7.8 per 100,000 in 2021. This rate has been increasing over the last few years.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1454478716676055040"}"></div></p>
<p>In 2022, the homicide rate in <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/homicideinenglandandwales/march2022">England and Wales</a> was 1.2 per 100,000 people. There was a 23% increase in the number of homicide victims compared to March 2020-21, returning to pre-COVID levels.</p>
<p>Some 81% of homicides in the US involved the use of firearms, while in England and Wales, sharp instruments (including knives) were the most common methods of killing at 41%. </p>
<p>The latest Australian data shows knives were used in 38% of incidents and firearms in 11%. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/prisoner-numbers-in-australia-have-decreased-but-were-not-really-sure-why-yet-129696">Prisoner numbers in Australia have decreased, but we're not really sure why yet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is the homicide rate reflective of general crime trends?</h2>
<p>Overall, crime in Australia is also on the decline. According to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/crime-victimisation-australia/2021-22#personal-crime-summary">Australian Bureau of Statistics Crime Victimisation survey</a>, physical assaults are down 39% from 2008-09, face-to-face threatened assaults are down 44% and robberies are down 50%.</p>
<p>However, sexual assaults have increased by 66% over the same period. And experts say the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/sexual-assaults-australia-record-high/101281802">vast majority of people</a> who experience sexual assault don’t report it to police, meaning the true figure is much higher. </p>
<h2>Do our perceptions match reality?</h2>
<p>Criminologists Don Weatherburn and Sara Rahman examined <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/the-vanishing-criminal-paperback-softback">the decline of crime in Australia</a> in their recent book. They note that crime statistics overall began to decline in 2001, and by 2018, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>rates of the most common forms of crime had fallen between 40 and 80% and were lower than they’d been in twenty or in some cases thirty years.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, perceptions of personal safety may not be aligning with these lower crime statistics.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://oxfordre.com/criminology/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.001.0001/acrefore-9780190264079-e-10;jsessionid=C212D69F21058488DA5B1E99F3CD36DB#acrefore-9780190264079-e-10-div1-2">fear of crime</a> is an emotional reaction to the expectation of being victimised by criminals. A <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/28/3/340/595335?login=false">person’s fear level</a> can be influenced by a number of things, including their own life experiences, their media exposure, and their social and cultural environments. </p>
<p>The Productivity Commission’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2023/justice/police-services">Report on Government Services</a> measures perceptions of safety from the National Survey of Community Satisfaction with policing. In 2021-22, a vast majority of people (89%) declared feeling “safe” or “very safe” in their homes. </p>
<p>However, when asked about public places, the rates decreased significantly. Just over half of respondents (53.8%) said they felt safe walking alone in their neighbourhoods and a third (32.7%) felt safe when travelling on public transport. </p>
<p>The data, however, shows that crime in general, and homicide specifically, is declining. Australia is becoming a safer place to live. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-the-pieces-together-to-create-safe-public-spaces-for-all-89961">Putting the pieces together to create safe public spaces for all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia recorded the second-lowest number of homicides since the Australian Institute of Criminology began compiling national statistics in 1989.Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminal Justice and Criminology, Bond UniversityGaelle Brotto, Assistant Professor Criminology and Criminal JusticeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929002022-10-24T12:26:40Z2022-10-24T12:26:40ZRepublicans say crime is on the rise – what is the crime rate and what does it mean?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490961/original/file-20221020-15-cwe7bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2100%2C1401&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Mehmet Oz has talked a lot about the crime rate during his campaign in Pennsylvania.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022PennsylvaniaSenate/d1c89933cd874bdea6c6c3ca8a861edf/photo">AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the lead-up to the 2022 midterm elections, Republican candidates across the nation are <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-ride-crime-wave-worries-in-midterms-home-stretch/ar-AA12Zj7W">blaming Democrats for an increase in crime</a>. </p>
<p>But as a scholar of criminology and criminal justice, I believe it’s important to note that, despite the <a href="https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/4f9ccad6-acdb-4498-a405-910fc13b3ae8">apparently confident assertions of politicians</a>, it’s not so easy to make sense of fluctuations in the crime rate. And whether it’s going up or down depends on a few key questions:</p>
<ul>
<li>What you mean by “crime,”</li>
<li>What the “up” or “down” comparisons are in reference to, and</li>
<li>The location or area being examined.</li>
</ul>
<p>Here’s an explanation of those elements – and why there is no one answer to whether crime has increased in the past year, or over the past decade.</p>
<h2>What is ‘crime,’ anyway?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An email message reads: Three fires in residential neighborhoods in ONE WEEK! Three homeless encampment evictions in that same week! Multiple vehicles broken into in just one neighborhood! A homecoming game interrupted by youth with unmarked guns!" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490969/original/file-20221020-22-3h2uwx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican politicians across the nation, including Cicely Davis in Minnesota, are working to get voters concerned about crime.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cicely Davis campaign email</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Usually when politicians, public officials and scholars talk about crime statistics, they’re referring to <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement">the most serious crimes</a>, which the FBI officially calls “index” or “Part 1” offenses: criminal homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft and arson.</p>
<p>Because these crimes vary a great deal in terms of seriousness, experts break this list up into “violent” and “property” offenses, so as not to confuse a surge in thefts with an increase in killings.</p>
<p>Each month, state and local police departments tally up the crimes they have handled and send the data to the FBI for inclusion in the nation’s annual <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/need-an-fbi-service-or-more-information/ucr">Uniform Crime Report</a>.</p>
<p>But that system has limitations. According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimization-2021">fewer than half</a> of all events that could count as crimes actually get reported to police in the first place. And police departments are not required to send information about known crimes to the FBI. So each year what are presented as national crime statistics are derived from whichever of the <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh236/files/media/document/csllea18st.pdf">roughly 17,000 police departments</a> across the country decide to send in their data.</p>
<p>In 2021, the optional nature of reporting crime statistics was a particular problem, because the FBI asked for more detailed information than it had in the past. Historically, the bureau received data from police departments covering about 90% of the U.S. population. But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/us/fbi-national-crime-report-2021-data/index.html">fewer agencies supplied</a> the more detailed data requested in 2021. That data covered only 66% of the nation’s population. And the patchwork wasn’t even: In some states, such as Texas, Ohio and South Carolina, nearly all agencies reported. But in other states, such as Florida, California and New York, <a href="https://public.tableau.com/shared/7969TZHT6?:toolbar=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y">participation was abysmal</a>.</p>
<p>With those caveats in mind, the 2021 data estimates that <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/murder">criminal homicide</a> rose about 4% nationally from 2020 levels. Robberies were down 9%, and aggravated assaults remained relatively unchanged.</p>
<p>Rapes are notoriously <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/vnrp0610.pdf">underreported to police</a>, but the <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimization-2021">2021 National Crime Victimization Survey</a> suggests there was no significant change from 2020.</p>
<p><iframe id="sS5aA" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sS5aA/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What’s the benchmark?</h2>
<p>Those comparisons look at the prior year to assess whether certain types of crime are up or down. Such comparisons may seem straightforward, but violent crime, particularly homicide, is statistically rare enough that a rise or fall from one year to the next doesn’t necessarily mean there is reason to panic or celebrate.</p>
<p>Another way to assess trends is to look at as much data as possible. <a href="https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/home">Over the past 36 years</a>, clear trends have emerged. The national homicide rate in 2021 wasn’t as high as it was in the early 1990s, but 2021’s figure is the highest in nearly 25 years.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, robberies have been trending steadily downward for the better part of 30 years. And though the aggravated assault rate didn’t change much from 2020 to 2021, it is clearly higher now than at any time during the 2010s.</p>
<p><iframe id="ph5rv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ph5rv/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Crime is highly localized</h2>
<p>These figures are imperfect in other ways, too. The data being used in today’s assertions about crime rates is more than 10 months old and presents national figures that mask a substantial amount of local variation. The FBI won’t release 2022 crime data until the fall of 2023. </p>
<p>But there is more current data available: The consulting firm AH Datalytics has a free <a href="https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboards/ytd-murder-comparison/">dashboard</a> that compiles more up-to-date murder data from 99 big cities. </p>
<p>As of October 2022, it indicates that murder in big cities is down about 5% in 2022 when compared with the first 10 months of 2021. But this aggregate change masks the fact that murder is up 85% in Colorado Springs, Colo.; 33% in Birmingham, Ala.; 28% in New Orleans; and 27% in Charlotte, N.C. Meanwhile, murder is down 38% in Columbus, Ohio; 29% in Richmond, Va.; and 18% in Chicago.</p>
<p>Even these city-level statistics don’t tell the whole story. It is now <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12070">well established</a> that crime is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1989.tb00862.x">not randomly distributed across communities</a>. Instead, it clusters in small areas that criminologists and police departments often refer to as “hot spots.” What this means is that regardless of whether crime is up or down in cities, a handful of neighborhoods in those cities are likely still significantly and disproportionately affected by violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Nix does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether crime is up or down depends on what kind of crime, what the comparison is to, and where you’re counting crimes.Justin Nix, Associate Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711832021-11-04T12:25:26Z2021-11-04T12:25:26ZWhy voters rejected plans to replace the Minneapolis Police Department – and what’s next for policing reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430106/original/file-20211103-23-n2v7oa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C0%2C6192%2C4106&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Precincts around where George Floyd was killed voted in favor of disbanding the Minneapolis Police Department.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jordan-and-royal-pacheco-learn-of-george-floyds-murder-at-news-photo/1325462666?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Voters in Minneapolis <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/11/02/1051617581/minneapolis-police-vote">rejected a measure</a> that would have transformed the city’s policing 18 months after the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/george-floyd-investigation.html">killing of George Floyd</a> thrust the city into the forefront of the police reform debate.</em></p>
<p><em>By a <a href="https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-election-results-2021-st-paul-mayor-police-city-council-charter-amendments-rent-control/600110186/">56% to 44% margin</a>, voters said “no” to a <a href="https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-supreme-court-minneapolis-policing-measure-stays-on-ballot/600097750/">charter amendment</a> that would have replaced the Minneapolis Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety focused on public health solutions.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://cla.umn.edu/about/directory/profile/phelps">Michelle Phelps</a> at the University of Minnesota leads a <a href="https://www.michellesphelps.com/research/policing">project looking at attitudes toward policing</a> in the city. The Conversation asked her to explain what happened in the Nov. 2, 2021, vote and where it leaves both Minneapolis’ beleaguered police department and police reform movements nationwide. An edited version of her responses are below.</em></p>
<h2>What have voters in Minneapolis rejected?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Minneapolis,_Minnesota,_Question_2,_Replace_Police_Department_with_Department_of_Public_Safety_Initiative_(November_2021)">wording of the amendment</a> was quite complicated.</p>
<p>In essence, the amendment would have eliminated the existing police department in the city charter and replaced it with a Department of Public Safety charged with delivering “a comprehensive public health approach” to public safety, with the details of the new department to be determined by the mayor and city council.</p>
<h2>So this was a ‘defund the police’ bill?</h2>
<p>The proposed amendment itself didn’t require police numbers be reduced, but it removed a barrier to defunding. It was a chance for a new approach to policing.</p>
<p>The amendment would have eliminated a city charter requirement that Minneapolis maintain a <a href="https://www.startribune.com/by-requiring-a-minimum-force-minneapolis-charter-poses-obstacle-to-defunding-police/571120052/">minimum number of officers</a> based on population size. And it would have shifted some of the power for policing matters from the mayor to the city council, which could have required the new department to focus resources on alternatives to uniformed police, such as unarmed community officers or mental health specialists.</p>
<h2>Why did the amendment fail?</h2>
<p>The vote should not be seen as evidence that Minneapolis residents are content with city policing. Polls have shown that the Minneapolis Police Department is <a href="https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-public-safety-minneapolis-police-crime-charter-amendment-ballot-question/600097989/">viewed broadly unfavorably</a>, especially among Black residents. And 44% of voters did vote in favor of the amendment, so it is very much a mixed signal.</p>
<p>The reasons people voted against the amendment were complex. Yes, there was an element of resentment among white, more conservative Minneapolis residents who saw this as a radical attack on law and order. But it failed to get enough support among precincts with majority Black residents too.</p>
<p>One possible reason: As well as being <a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/blacks-whites-police-deaths-disparity/">more likely to face police brutality</a>, Black Americans are also more likely to ask for the assistance of officers due to neighborhood violence. This bled into concerns over the impact that the amendment would have on police officer numbers.</p>
<p>As a result, the Black community <a href="https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-police-ballot-question-divides-black-activists-leaders/600110965/">was divided</a> over the amendment. At the same time that some Black activists and city leaders were calling for dismantling or abolishing the Minneapolis Police Department, other Black residents in North Minneapolis were <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/judge-orders-minneapolis-hire-more-132100293.html">suing the city to hire more officers</a>.</p>
<h2>Who voted against the amendment?</h2>
<p>We don’t have a full breakdown of the vote yet, but we have <a href="https://www.startribune.com/how-minneapolis-voted-on-the-police-charter-amendment/600104740/?refresh=true">precinct heat maps</a> that give a rough indication of who voted “yes” and who “no.” </p>
<p>Support for the amendment was high in some parts of South Minneapolis, especially the multiracial communities around George Floyd Square. There was also strong support in some gentrifying neighborhoods where there are a lot of young white voters.</p>
<p>In the southwest precincts – where there are clusters of wealthy, white residents – there was very strong opposition to the amendment. But most precincts in North Minneapolis, which has the highest proportion of Black voters, also voted “no” on average. When looked at through the lens of race, the story of the amendment is complicated.</p>
<p>Initial poll results also suggest age was an important a divide, if not more so than race.</p>
<p>In sum, both support for, and opposition against, question 2 in Minneapolis highlights the complex racial politics around both fear of police violence and fear of crime.</p>
<h2>Are those fears supported?</h2>
<p>Certainly opponents of the amendment have tried to argue that efforts to reimagine policing has left Minneapolis less safe. It is true that a <a href="https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/05/16/former-minneapolis-police-officer-talks-about-his-decision-to-leave/">lot of officers have left the force</a> since the summer of 2020 – many have left to go to departments outside the city, while others are on medical leave for PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder).</p>
<p>And there is a perception among the public that fewer officers results in greater community violence. But the truth of the matter is trickier. The city has not defunded the police – the <a href="https://www.police1.com/funding/articles/minneapolis-mayor-unveils-plan-to-boost-police-funding-closer-to-previous-levels-HUFv3sitMVg0CekA/">budget for 2021</a> was roughly in line with 2020. So the drop in officer numbers is not a result of the city defunding the department. Instead, officers are leaving the force. And there’s some evidence too that the officers that remain have at times shirked their duties to the public or “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-policing-minneapolis/">pulled back</a>” in proactive activities.</p>
<p>It is too simple to say that the reduction in police numbers has resulted in the increase in violent crime. We also <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-guns-pandemic-stress-and-a-police-legitimacy-crisis-created-perfect-conditions-for-homicide-spike-in-2020-168823">have to factor in</a> the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, along with the fact that the courts were also shut down during that period. </p>
<p>At the same time, there has been an intense scrutiny on police violence in Minneapolis since George Floyd’s murder, and this has changed how officers and citizens interact – 911 calls have declined, relative to the rate of shootings, and trust is at a low. Meanwhile the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/31/us-gun-sales-rise-pandemic">uptick in gun sales</a> likely contributed to the increase as well. So there are a lot of factors beyond the number of police, or what they do, that can fuel violence or promote safety.</p>
<h2>What is next for police reform in Minneapolis?</h2>
<p>I’m not convinced this is the end of the amendment – it could return in some form. Yes, it failed this time, but there is a core of residents, organizers and activists who want to move away from the status quo when it comes to law enforcement.</p>
<p>The immediate concern for the city will be <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/judge-orders-minneapolis-hire-more-132100293.html">hiring officers to comply with a court order to comply with the minimum officers standard in the city charter</a>, in addition to continuing to work to reform the department. So we will likely see more officers, not less, in the immediate future.</p>
<p>But there is real momentum for transformations in policing beyond reform. It is still possible that Minneapolis gets a Department of Public Safety, but through city ordinances rather than amendment and without disbanding the Minneapolis Police Department. And the city is continuing to onboard new mental health professionals to respond to some 911 calls.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, we have an <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/trial-over-killing-of-george-floyd/2021/04/21/989446758/doj-to-investigate-minneapolis-police-for-possible-patterns-of-excessive-force">ongoing federal Department of Justice investigation</a>. That could well end with a consent decree or memorandum of understanding that would mandate some of the changes that activists and community members are looking for.</p>
<h2>How will this vote affect the wider police reform movement?</h2>
<p>After George Floyd, what happens with policing in Minneapolis is no longer just about Minneapolis.</p>
<p>For advocates of the type of transformative changes envisioned by the amendment, it is a mixed result. While some may argue that the failure of the amendment to pass confirms that police defunding or abolition is politically toxic, close to half of the electorate voted for it – momentum has never been higher, despite the loss.</p>
<p>And had it been followed by <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/minneapolis-bloody-summer-puts-city-on-pace-for-most-violent-year-in-a-generation/">continued increases in shootings</a>, the danger would have been that the amendment would have been held responsible. The silver lining for those pushing for a “yes” vote is that perhaps the city now has the chance to develop alternative public health models without as much national scrutiny.</p>
<p>One thing is sure: This is not the end of the conversation.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 115,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle S. Phelps does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Minneapolis residents voted 56% to 44% against an amendment that would have transformed the city’s police. The reasons they did so are complicated, an expert writes.Michelle S. Phelps, Assistant Professor of Sociology and Law, University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1688232021-09-27T19:48:37Z2021-09-27T19:48:37ZMore guns, pandemic stress and a police legitimacy crisis created perfect conditions for homicide spike in 2020<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423422/original/file-20210927-23-c08mfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3489%2C2321&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What role did the pandemic play in the hike in murders in 2020?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-walks-past-police-tape-near-the-scene-of-a-shooting-news-photo/504027776?adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Homicides in the U.S. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/27/politics/uniform-crime-report-2020/index.html">spiked by almost 30%</a> in 2020.</p>
<p>That was the main takeaway from <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2020-crime-statistics">figures released on Sept. 27, 2021, by the FBI</a> that showed almost uniform increases across America in the murder rate. </p>
<p>The fact that big cities, small cities, suburbs and rural areas – in both blue and red states – experienced similar increases in homicides suggests that nationwide events or trends were behind the rise.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic would be one obvious explanation given its pervasiveness in 2020. But <a href="https://www.unomaha.edu/college-of-public-affairs-and-community-service/criminology-and-criminal-justice/about-us/justin-nix.php">as a criminologist</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_Jr8r8UAAAAJ&hl=en">I know that</a> homicide rates are affected by a number of factors. And what happened in 2020 was a confluence of events that created the perfect conditions for a spike in murders.</p>
<h2>Stress and a lack of support</h2>
<p>COVID-19 likely did have an impact. People were under increased psychological and financial pressure during the pandemic. Criminologists have long pointed to “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00915.x">strain theory</a>” to explain criminal behavior. Stressors – such as unemployment, isolation and uncertainty about the future – can lead to increased frustration and anger. People experiencing these negative emotions are more prone to turn to crime when they lack access to more positive coping mechanisms. And previous research has shown how financial stressors and a lack of social support <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2003.tb00999.x">work together to influence the overall homicide rate</a>.</p>
<p>But the pandemic wasn’t the only major event of 2020 that likely contributed to the increased homicide rates. In May of that year, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/george-floyd.html">George Floyd was murdered</a> by a police officer in Minneapolis.</p>
<p>Floyd’s murder and the large-scale protests that followed sparked a <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2021/02/24/denver-crime-rate-homicide-shooting-property-crime-police/">police legitimacy crisis</a>. In short, this means citizens’ trust in police <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000460">was diminished</a>.</p>
<h2>The ‘Ferguson effect’</h2>
<p>When trust in the police <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/12/americans-confidence-police-falls-new-low-gallup-poll-shows/3352910001/">falls as dramatically as it did</a> following Floyd’s murder, the general public may become less likely to call 911 to report crimes or otherwise engage with the criminal justice system. Indeed, research by Desmond Ang at Harvard University suggests that after Floyd’s death, <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/ang/files/abbd_crimereporting.pdf">911 calls dropped significantly</a> in the eight cities he and his colleagues studied. </p>
<p>High-profile cases of police brutality are also associated with what has become known as the “Ferguson effect,” in which police officers <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3715223">make fewer stops</a> that occasionally <a href="https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/hall-police-enforce-traffic-laws.pdf">result in illegal guns being taken off the streets</a>. </p>
<p>Research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-013-0783-y">a small number of people are disproportionately involved in violent crime</a>. If this small group felt <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0011-1348.2005.00014.x">emboldened as a result of the legitimacy crisis</a>, then it might help explain the increase in homicides.</p>
<p>Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, cited the “Ferguson effect” <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/06/15/482123552/murder-rate-spike-attributed-to-ferguson-effect-doj-study-says">as a factor</a> in the 17% hike in homicides <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/249895.pdf">recorded in U.S. cities</a> after Michael Brown was shot by a police officer in the Missouri city in 2014.</p>
<h2>More guns = more gun homicides</h2>
<p>There is also <a href="https://www.vox.com/22529989/2020-murders-guns">evidence that gun carrying increased</a> in 2020.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/Crimealytics?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Crime analyst Jeff Asher</a> and <a href="https://www.robarthurwriter.com/about.html">data scientist Rob Arthur</a> found that in 10 cities, although police made fewer arrests in 2020, the number of gun seizures went up. This suggests more people were illegally carrying guns in 2020. And research has long confirmed that gun ownership is <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2013.301409">linked to higher rates of firearm homicides</a>.</p>
<p>When there are more guns in the hands of emboldened offenders, then the likely result is more attempted and completed murders. That this all happened during the height of a pandemic means 2020 was a perfect storm of factors that proved capable of producing the largest single-year homicide spike on record. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168823/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Nix does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>FBI statistics recorded a 30% rise in homicides in 2020. A criminologist helps break down what was behind the spike.Justin Nix, Associate Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1468292020-10-27T12:13:06Z2020-10-27T12:13:06ZUndocumented immigrants may actually make American communities safer – not more dangerous – new study finds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365595/original/file-20201026-19-1ox2u0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=65%2C0%2C6195%2C4158&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that undocumented immigrants cause more crime, but new research suggests the opposite might be true.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/street-vendor-sells-a-snow-cone-to-customers-in-macarthur-news-photo/1214486023?adppopup=true">Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Undocumented immigration does not increase the violent crime rate in U.S. metropolitan areas. In fact, it may reduce property crime rates. These are the key findings from our recently published article in the <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1080/0735648X.2020.1819375">Journal of Crime and Justice</a>, co-authored by Yulin Yang, James Bachmeier and Mike Maciag. </p>
<p>Research shows that the American communities where immigrants make their homes are more often improved by their presence than harmed by it. Immigrants bring social, cultural and economic activity to the <a href="https://prospect.org/labor/immigration-america-s-urban-revival/">places they live</a>. That makes these places more vital and safer, not more dangerous. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>People from all social groups and backgrounds commit <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/06/us/politics/undocumented-illegal-immigrants.html">crimes</a>. But undocumented immigrants, and immigrants more generally, are often baselessly blamed for increasing crime rates – including, repeatedly, by <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-illegal-immigrants-animals-slice-dice-young-beautiful-girls-us-president-a7861596.html">President Donald Trump</a>. In the second and final presidential debate, Trump again claimed <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/steve-chapman/ct-column-trump-immigrants-catch-release-chapman-20201023-4kokf77g4rhijog7aol5pn65z4-story.html">undocumented immigrants are rapists and murderers</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/30/upshot/crime-immigration-myth.html">This notion</a> has existed and been studied since the early <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/44540NCJRS.pdf">20th century</a>, including in a 2005 <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0049089X05000104">analysis</a> we conducted with a number of colleagues that concluded immigration did not increase crime rates in U.S. metropolitan areas. </p>
<p>But this research is <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/327229-crimes-by-illegal-aliens-not-legal-immigrants-are-the-real">often dismissed</a> because most <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-criminol-032317-092026">empirical studies</a> cannot separate undocumented immigrants from the total immigrant population. That level of analysis is necessary to draw conclusions about the relationship between undocumented immigration and crime. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1080/15377938.2016.1261057">we found in a 2017</a> study with colleagues that from 1970 to 2010 metropolitan areas with greater concentrations of immigrants, legal and undocumented combined, have <a href="https://theconversation.com/immigration-and-crime-what-does-the-research-say-72176">less property crime</a> than areas with fewer immigrants, on average. <a href="https://cis.org/Arthur/Who-FactChecks-FactCheckers">Critics suggested</a> that our findings would not hold if we looked at only the subset of undocumented individuals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Immigrant man wearing a Guatemalan flag shirtholds an American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365264/original/file-20201023-23-10catex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Immigrants, including those who are undocumented, often make the American communities they settle in safer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/marcos-latin-of-dc-carries-the-guatemalan-flag-together-news-photo/642237746?adppopup=true">Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So we decided to find out if they were right. Our new study is the result of that effort, and it confirms our original findings: Undocumented immigration, on average, has no effect on violent crime across U.S. metropolitan areas. </p>
<p>In statistical models that did identify a significant relationship between undocumented immigration and crime, we found undocumented immigration reduces property crimes, such as burglary. </p>
<h2>How we do our work</h2>
<p>Using two different estimates of the undocumented immigrant populations for 154 metropolitan areas in our most recent study – one from the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/">Pew Research Center</a> and one from the <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/">Migration Population Institute</a> – we examined the effect of undocumented immigration on homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary and larceny crime rates. </p>
<p>Crime rate data came from the <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/ucr">FBI’s Uniform Crime Report program</a>. Other data were from the <a href="https://www.census.gov/">U.S. Census Bureau</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s newsletter explains what’s going on with the coronavirus pandemic. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=coronavirus-going-on">Subscribe now</a>.</em>]</p>
<p>Using a statistical method called regression analysis to examine the data, we found that as the size of the undocumented population increases, the property crime rate decreases, on average. And the size of the undocumented population in a metropolitan area tends to have no impact on the violent crime rate. </p>
<p>These findings build on the conclusions of a <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-criminol-032317-092026">large 2018 study</a> in which researchers Graham Ousey and Charis Kubrin examined 51 studies on immigration and crime published from 1994 to 2014.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>Our analyses looked at broad metropolitan patterns, not the relationship of undocumented immigration and crime rates in distinct, specific places such as New York City and Los Angeles. Nor does our study address the reasons that immigration reduces crime, although there is plenty of <a href="https://prospect.org/labor/immigration-america-s-urban-revival/">other scholarship</a> on that issue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert M. Adelman has received funding in the past from the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Aging.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Reid receives funding from the Alabama Department of Corrections and has received funding in the past from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Statistical models debunk claims by Trump and others that undocumented immigration into the U.S. increases crime, building on a litany of past research.Robert M. Adelman, Associate Professor and Department Chair of Sociology, University at BuffaloLesley Reid, Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Interim Dean of the School of Social Work, University of AlabamaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1457222020-09-09T13:37:13Z2020-09-09T13:37:13ZWhy the dwindling numbers of trained detectives is a national crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357165/original/file-20200909-20-xq6j9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=131%2C248%2C4470%2C2814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/finger-print-on-black-screen-430817074">Shutterstock/maewshooter</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whether it’s a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/features/true-crime-documentaries-best-netflix-amazon-hbo-watch-a9575671.html">true crime documentary</a> or the latest super cool <a href="https://theculturetrip.com/europe/sweden/articles/nordic-noir-the-rise-of-scandinavian-crime-fiction/">crime noir series</a>, it seems everyone wants to be a detective. Everyone, that is, except serving police officers in England and Wales.</p>
<p>HM Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) called the lack of trained detectives a “<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2017/03/02/shortage-of-detectives-a-national-crisis-in-british-policing-watchdog-warns_n_15099794.html">national crisis</a>” and the Police Federation’s National Detectives Forum estimates that there are <a href="https://www.polfed.org/our-work/detectives/">5,000 vacant investigator posts</a> across all forces in the UK. It also said morale was at an all time low.</p>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48124059">HMIC suggested</a> cuts to police funding had led to many victims of crime not receiving the service their crime demanded. It found house burglary and theft offences regularly being resolved over the phone or allocated to neighbourhood police officers for investigation. The Police Federation is lobbying hard for long-term funding to resolve what it calls a “<a href="https://www.polfed.org/news-media/latest-news/2020/devices-go-unchecked-due-to-detective-shortage/">national shortage</a>” of detectives.</p>
<h2>Long hours and stress</h2>
<p>I was a police officer for 30 years and served in every rank from detective constable to detective chief superintendent. It was an extremely difficult job but I thrived in that challenging environment. So why are so many serving officers reluctant to become detectives? </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"837429321732063232"}"></div></p>
<p>One reason is sure to be the hours. Unlike their uniformed colleagues who work structured shift patterns to maintain a 24-hour response capability, detectives tend to work irregular hours. Their time is dictated by the investigations they are dealing with. The ability to earn overtime has always been one incentive to become a detective. But this is no longer the case due to cuts in police funding which brought in overtime caps.</p>
<p>Detectives become invested in their cases, from start to finish, mainly because the option to hand them over to someone else is rare. And the dynamic nature of crime investigation means they often work long hours. The main reason for this is the time constraint placed on police by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/police-and-criminal-evidence-act-1984-pace-codes-of-practice">Police and Criminal Evidence Act</a> (PACE) when dealing with people in police custody. For example, only under exceptional circumstances can a person be detained longer than 36 hours before they must be charged or released.</p>
<p>Complex investigations can be laborious as they require painstaking analysis and attention to detail. Detectives need to plan ahead and manage their time well while constantly trying to avoid being overwhelmed by the workload and paperwork. </p>
<p>To add to the mountain of admin, there is also an increasing need to interrogate electronic devices for <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-22/thousands-of-digital-devices-awaiting-analysis-by-police-investigators">digital evidence</a>. This has led to a huge backlog of computers, tablets and phones awaiting examination and adding another level of complexity to investigations.</p>
<h2>A day in the life</h2>
<p>It is common for a detective working in a general CID office to start the day early with the execution of a search warrant. Then, if arrests are made the rest of the day will be occupied with documenting exhibits preparing and conducting interviews and possibly other secondary searches. After many hours – with luck – they may be able to secure a charge. When they eventually go home they will try and switch off but their mind will be racing. And then the phone calls will start: the custody sergeant wants to speak about the prisoner’s property, a supervisor wants an update for the chief constable’s daily log. And on it goes.</p>
<p>The next day the detective hopes there have been no overnight prisoners to deal with so they can catch up on the paperwork from the day before. A full prosecution file may take weeks (in some cases months) to prepare. This is followed by case conferences with the Crown Prosecution Service. Then the follow up enquiries need to be done before the case eventually gets to court. </p>
<p>Once in court, the anxiety level ratchets up as the criminal justice system mulls over the evidence and the detective tries to rationalise and justify – sometimes before a jury – what was done. And sometimes, more importantly, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46838618">what was not done</a>. </p>
<p>Over time the sheer volume and unrelenting nature of the work can take its toll. It can be debilitating and have a detrimental impact on personal relationships, physical and <a href="https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/mental-health-and-personal-life-risks-blamed-shortage-police-detectives-yorkshire-1749040">mental health</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Crime scene forensic investigation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357190/original/file-20200909-24-n1xuol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crime scene: the nature of the work can take its toll on detectives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/crime-scene-investigation-collecting-evidence-519960634">Shutterstock/PRESSLAB</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some forces have hired additional <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51267779">civilian investigators</a> to address the shortage of trained detectives. Some have <a href="https://www.thejusticegap.com/under-qualified-police-investigating-serious-crime-due-to-shortage-of-detectives/">redeployed uniformed officers</a> to what were once detective roles, such as the investigation of house burglary, drugs supply and even major crime.</p>
<p>In the short term this may help cope with demand, but it is not a long-term solution to why officers no longer want to be detectives. In fact, this only serves to further undermine the specialist nature of the role and erode what prestige it once had.</p>
<p>Chief constables and police and crime commissioners in England and Wales need to reestablish the status once associated with the role of detective by creating a desirable and accessible career path. The role will always be arduous and not for everyone. But it should be a position that ambitious officers aspire to. </p>
<p>Detectives should get the best training available in their specialist fields and need to be made to feel more valued and motivated by their bosses. Despite the looming recession, the government must find a long-term funding formula that allows forces to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/01/police-warn-of-cuts-to-funding-even-worse-than-in-austerity-years">plan for the future</a> – a future where the role of the detective will be crucial in the fight against crime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The prestige the role of detective once had has been eroded and needs to be restored.Graham Hill, Visiting Research Fellow, School of Law, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1427182020-07-31T02:29:57Z2020-07-31T02:29:57ZSome crimes have seen drastic decreases during coronavirus — but not homicides in the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350538/original/file-20200731-35-1gt0bka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The various <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/government-response-to-the-covid-19-outbreak">restrictions</a> put in place to combat the spread of coronavirus in recent months have disrupted life for everyone – including criminals.</p>
<p>More than six months into the pandemic, it is clear the pandemic has had a major effect on crime rates. Certain crimes, such as robberies and sexual offences, have declined dramatically, while others, such as online fraud, have been on the rise. </p>
<p>Of course, it is difficult to firmly establish a direct causal relationship between coronavirus restrictions and crime rates, but the statistics reveal some common themes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-crime-cartels-helping-communities-will-extract-a-high-price-in-years-to-come-138592">Coronavirus: crime cartels helping communities will extract a high price in years to come</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reductions in burglaries and assaults</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/coronavirus-lockdown-when-can-you-leave-your-home">Lockdown policies in Australia </a> and many other countries around the world have significantly altered the environment in which criminal activity can take place. </p>
<p>The broad view in the early days of the pandemic was some crimes would naturally decrease – those requiring access to public space, for instance, and human contact. </p>
<p>For example, under the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiin9SDzc7qAhUZ4zgGHb_4CwYQFjARegQIBBAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.crimeprevention.nsw.gov.au%2FDocuments%2Froutine_activity_factsheet_nov2014.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2WONqOJunrsZGPzui_BwtQ">routine activity theory</a> in criminology, which focuses on the criteria that must be present for crimes to occur, the lockdown should have led to a significant decline in burglaries of homes. There were fewer suitable targets for burglaries (unoccupied houses) and an increase in capable guardians who could intervene (families staying at home).</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347560/original/file-20200715-17-1g7ljq4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Routine activity theory (or the crime triangle).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UN Office on Drugs and Crime</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The same theory can apply to violent crimes and sexual assaults – if you limit the ability of people to commit these crimes through lockdowns, it’s reasonable to expect crime rates would decrease. </p>
<p>The statistics in Australia suggest these theories may be correct.</p>
<p>The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_media_releases/2020/mr-COVID-19-crime-trends-in-NSW.aspx">found</a> that in April, crime across many categories declined sharply compared to the same month for the past five years: robberies (down 42%), non-domestic assault (down 39%), sexual offences (down 32%), break and enter of dwellings (down 29%), break and enter of non-dwellings (down 25%), stealing from motor vehicles (down 34%) and car theft (down 24%).</p>
<p>A similar pattern was <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/">noticeable</a> in Queensland, comparing crime data for April to the same month in 2019 — a 28% decline in unlawful entry of dwellings, 45% reduction in robberies and a 7% drop in sexual offences. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-police-will-be-crucial-players-in-the-battle-against-coronavirus-134392">Explainer: why police will be crucial players in the battle against coronavirus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Increases in crimes committed in private</h2>
<p>Conversely, offences that could be committed in private settings or remotely, such as <a href="https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/news/national-crime-agency-warn-that-organised-crime-groups-may-try-to-exploit-the-coronavirus-outbreak-to-target-the-uk">cybercrimes</a>, rose dramatically during the pandemic. </p>
<p>In Queensland, for instance, computer fraud was up 76% in April compared to the year before, while drug offences increased by 13%.</p>
<p>There was also great concern that domestic violence would also increase during lockdown periods. </p>
<p>NSW police <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_media_releases/2020/mr-DV-COVID-19-update.aspx">did not see</a> an increase in domestic violence reports in April, compared to the previous year, and Queensland <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/">crime data shows</a> breaches of domestic violence orders have remained stable since the start of the pandemic. The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, however, said police could not rule out an increase in unreported domestic violence.</p>
<p>In contrast to this, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-22/domestic-violence-increases-in-nt-during-pandemic/12379148">police data for the Northern Territory</a> showed a 25% spike in domestic violence-related assaults in parts of central Australia during the first months of the COVID-19 lockdown. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-keep-family-violence-perpetrators-in-view-during-the-covid-19-lockdown-135942">How do we keep family violence perpetrators ‘in view’ during the COVID-19 lockdown?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A study by the <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/sb/sb28">Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC)</a> surveyed 15,000 Australian women to gauge the prevalence of domestic violence during the lockdown period from February to May. It found 4.6% of women experienced physical or sexual violence from a partner and 11.6% reported experiencing emotionally abusive, harassing or controlling behaviour.</p>
<p>The report <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-07/sb28_prevalence_of_domestic_violence_among_women_during_covid-19_pandemic.pdf">noted</a> more research was needed to understand the problem. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Given the majority of women experiencing violence and abuse within their relationships do not engage with police or government or non-government agencies — particularly while they remain in a relationship with their abuser — this is a significant gap in knowledge.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1283215017349808128"}"></div></p>
<h2>Crime also down overseas, but homicides on the rise</h2>
<p>Other countries reported similar decreases in crime. In <a href="https://news.npcc.police.uk/releases/police-continue-to-see-falls-in-crime-during-lockdown">England and Wales</a>, crime dropped consistently by an average of 24% per month over a three-month period from April to June compared to the same period for 2019. </p>
<p>These figures, however, did not include <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/home-secretary-outlines-support-for-domestic-abuse-victims">fraud offences</a>, which increased during the pandemic. In March, reported frauds in the UK <a href="https://www.actionfraud.police.uk/alert/coronavirus-related-fraud-reports-increase-by-400-in-march">increased</a> by 400%. </p>
<p>Scotland also saw an <a href="https://www.gov.scot/news/impact-of-covid-19-on-crime/">18% decrease</a> in overall crime in April compared to the same month in 2019. One of the few exceptions to this was a 38% rise in fraud.</p>
<p>In the US, however, the findings have been mixed. <a href="https://crimesciencejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40163-020-00117-6">One study</a> that looked at crime in 16 large cities from January to May (when lockdowns were coming into force) found reductions in residential burglaries and car thefts in some cities, but little to no change to non-residential burglaries and serious assaults (including homicides).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047235220301860">Another study looking at the effect of social distancing</a> on crime in two cities, Los Angeles and Indianapolis, found it</p>
<blockquote>
<p>had a statistically significant impact on a few specific crime types. However, the overall effect is notably less than might be expected given the scale of the disruption to social and economic life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Finally, a major study by the <a href="https://citycrimestats.com/covid/">University of Pennsylvania</a> found overall crime across 25 cities in the US declined by 23% in the first month of the pandemic, compared to the average over five years of data for the same time period. </p>
<p>Notably, the study <a href="https://citycrimestats.com/static/files/COVIDCrimeHighlights072320.pdf">found</a> crime declined even before stay-at-home orders were issued as people changed their normal routines and spent more time at home. Drug crimes saw the biggest decline of any crime category, while home burglaries, assaults and robberies were also down across the 25 cities.</p>
<p>However, the study found little change to homicide rates or shootings in the first month after stay-at-home orders. One possible reason for this, the authors note, is people committing these types of crime are unlikely to be concerned with stay-at-home orders. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350546/original/file-20200731-25-njwzqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chicago police investigating the scene of a mass shooting in July.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chicago Tribune/TNS/Sipa USA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-crime-coronavirus.html">separate analysis</a> of crime data conducted by The New York Times, murders were up 21.8% in the 36 US cities it studied through at least May, compared to data for the same time period last year.</p>
<p>Other academics have said it is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/07/20/892418244/crime-has-declined-overall-during-the-pandemic-but-shootings-and-killings-are-up">difficult to draw conclusions</a> on homicide rates during the pandemic due to a lack of long-term data.</p>
<p>Further study of the impact of COVID-19 on crime will be required. In the UK, Leeds University has just been <a href="https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4607/leeds_academics_to_investigate_covid-19_crimes">awarded</a> funding to conduct such a study over the next 18 months. </p>
<h2>Future challenges</h2>
<p>Not only will law enforcement be required to adapt to the effect of COVID-19 responses on criminal behaviour, the role of law enforcement is also being expanded to take on <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-police-will-be-crucial-players-in-the-battle-against-coronavirus-134392">non-traditional roles in the pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>And the full economic impact of the pandemic has yet to be seen. Many economies have been insulated to some degree by <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus">government assistance programs</a>, but the extent to which a severe economic downturn could affect crime rates is still not known.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Goldsworthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Certain crimes, such as robberies and sexual offences, have declined dramatically during the pandemic, while others, such as online fraud, domestic violence and homicides, have not.Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminology, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296962020-01-20T19:03:56Z2020-01-20T19:03:56ZPrisoner numbers in Australia have decreased, but we’re not really sure why yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310785/original/file-20200120-118337-lhg10i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C9%2C5997%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prison rates have stopped increasing for the first time in seven years. In fact, they've decreased by 1%. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4517.0">Prisoners in Australia</a> data provides a surprising change: for the first time in seven years, the national imprisonment rate has not increased. In fact, it has decreased by 1%. </p>
<p>The female imprisonment rate decreased by 5%, breaking the trend of a vastly increasing number of women in prison since 2011. And this decrease is most pronounced with respect to Indigenous women, seeing their imprisonment rate going down by 11% over the last year. (Although they remain the fastest growing subgroup within the prison population as their imprisonment rate has more than doubled since 2000.)</p>
<p>So why have we seen a decrease? Looking at the data paints a complicated picture.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-australias-booming-prison-population-76940">Three charts on: Australia's booming prison population</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>8 different jurisdictions</h2>
<p>As Australia consists of eight independent jurisdictions, each with its own legislation and penal culture, there are significant differences in the size of their prison populations. </p>
<p>All jurisdictions, except for Tasmania and Victoria, show a small decrease in their imprisonment rate over the last year. However, it’s still the case that the Northern Territory imprisons proportionally about four times as many people as the national average, followed by Western Australia (1.6 times). Both jurisdictions having been in pole position for decades. </p>
<p>While imprisonment rates are historically well below the national average in Victoria, they have been increasing continuously since 2010, including over the last year.</p>
<h2>Important subpopulations</h2>
<p>There are also some subgroups that have been a matter of specific concern for some years.</p>
<p>The proportion of people on remand, awaiting their trial, is still increasing. These people, who are technically “innocent until proven guilty”, now account for 33% of the total prison population. This increase started in 2010 following several changes to the legislation restricting the use of bail, which has a <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/publications/the-growth-in-remand-and-its-impact-on-indigenous-over-representation-in-the-criminal-justice-system/">stronger impact on Indigenous defendants</a>. This is <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/publications/the-growth-in-remand-and-its-impact-on-indigenous-over-representation-in-the-criminal-justice-system/">due to</a> their offending and remand history, as well as social, economic and cultural disadvantage.</p>
<p>The stagnation of the Indigenous imprisonment rate, and particularly the decrease for Indigenous women, still leaves us with a very bleak picture when it comes to Indigenous over-representation. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are still 12 times more likely to be in prison. Indigenous women are 19 times more likely than non-Indigenous women. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/data-gaps-mean-indigenous-incarceration-rates-may-be-even-worse-than-we-thought-63044">Data gaps mean Indigenous incarceration rates may be even worse than we thought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>From the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4519.0Main+Features12017-18?OpenDocument">limited data we have</a> available on Indigenous offending, we know the rate of Indigenous people charged with offences is higher than for non-Indigenous people, but remains stable over time. Therefore, it is not an adequate explanation for their rapid increase in the prison population until this year.</p>
<p>The data also provide a snapshot of the profile of people in prison on the 30th of June of that year. As Indigenous people tend to serve <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4519.0Main+Features12017-18?OpenDocument">shorter terms in prison</a>, they are less likely to be captured on a one-off date. </p>
<p>Data from another Australian Bureau of Statistics source show the influx of Indigenous men and women into the prison system is going up, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/EEEF9189FF9C992FCA258354000BB282?OpenDocument">particularly in the Eastern states</a>. </p>
<p>Uncharacteristically, it’s Western Australia and the Northern Territory that are showing the most consistent decrease in Indigenous prisoner receptions.</p>
<h2>International comparison</h2>
<p>A decrease in the prison population is part of a more global trend. While prison populations were increasing from the second half of the eighties and throughout the nineties in most countries where consistent data was available, this started to reverse in the first decade of the new millennium. </p>
<p>Looking at the <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/world-prison-brief-data">World Prison Brief data</a>, imprisonment rates are currently decreasing in several Anglo-Saxon countries (which traditionally have high imprisonment rates), in continental European countries (which tend to have lower rates), and in Nordic countries (which for many years have had very low imprisonment rates).</p>
<h2>Crime or policies?</h2>
<p>There is the question as to whether this decrease is caused by a reduction in rates of criminal behaviour or whether it has been driven by changing public and criminal justice policies. From an international perspective, crime rates have been going down since the nineties. </p>
<p>Australia also experienced a significant <a href="https://journals-sagepub-com.ezproxy.library.uwa.edu.au/doi/full/10.1177/0004865818757585">fall in recorded crime rates</a> between 2002 and 2016. The murder rate fell by 33%, the rate of kidnapping/abduction fell by 29%, the robbery rate fell by 58%, the rate of burglary/break-and-enter fell by 55%, the rate of motor vehicle theft fell by 54% and the rate of other theft fell by 26%.</p>
<p>But over the same period, the Australian imprisonment rate grew by 36%. This is most likely due to changes in crime (increase of drug-related crime), stricter penal policies towards certain forms of crime, but even more so, targeted policing. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">The evidence is in: you can't link imprisonment to crime rates</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australian penal politics have strongly been driven by a “law and order” discourse, often in a bet for <a href="https://journals-sagepub-com.ezproxy.library.uwa.edu.au/doi/full/10.1177/1462474515590891">electoral win</a>. However, crime and justice have been less prominent in recent state elections, or the punitive approach was not supported (see the 2014 Victorian election, and the 2015 Queensland election).</p>
<p>As prison populations are the outcome of a complex interaction of several factors, it’s not easy and probably too early to understand what led to a drop in numbers over the past year.</p>
<p>What’s important is that there are <a href="https://www.alrc.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/summary_report_133_amended.pdf">now numerous reports</a> and countless recommendations to address the overuse of imprisonment, as it is expensive and has been proven to be little effective. Hopefully this means Australia is joining the international trend of a more parsimonious use of the most severe sanction as a means to combat crime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129696/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hilde Tubex receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Crime rates are down, but they were decreasing while imprisonment rates were increasing, so that doesn’t really explain lower numbers in our prisons.Hilde Tubex, Associate professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1179102019-05-29T04:55:46Z2019-05-29T04:55:46ZDespite Japan’s low crime rates, it’s seen a number of mass stabbings in the past decade<p>On May 27, a 51-year old man went on a <a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201905280019.html">killing spree</a> in the Japanese city of Kawasaki, located south of Tokyo. With a knife in each hand, <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/05/28/national/crime-legal/11-reported-stabbed-kawasaki-including-elementary-school-children/#.XOzoJy2B3OQ">he killed a 39 year-old man and a 12 year-old schoolgirl, and injured 15 school children aged between six and twelve</a> as they waited for a school bus. </p>
<p>The attacker was detained at the scene, but later died from self-inflicted stab wounds to his neck and shoulders. A witness reported seeing the attacker swinging his knives and <a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201905280019.html">shouting “I will kill you”</a> while children screamed for help.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-japan-is-reluctant-to-retry-the-worlds-longest-serving-death-row-inmate-98397">Why Japan is reluctant to retry the world's longest-serving death row inmate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A recent history of indiscriminate killings</h2>
<p>The attacker was <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20190529_05/">identified</a> as Ryuichi Iwasaki. He grew up with, and was still living with, his <a href="https://www.sankei.com/affairs/news/190528/afr1905280072-n1.html">relatives</a> in Kawasaki city where the attack took place. </p>
<p>Those interviewed who knew Iwasaki did not seem surprised by the attack. His classmates from junior high school described him as a troubled child often losing his temper, behaving violently, and being bullied at school. More recently, Iwasaki was <a href="https://www.sankei.com/affairs/news/190528/afr1905280072-n1.html">verbally aggressive to his neighbour</a> because the leaves from the neighbour’s garden had brushed against him.</p>
<p>With the perpetrator dead, we are unlikely to get to the bottom of what motivated an apparently indiscriminate attack, but this incident isn’t the first time Japan has experienced a mass stabbings of this kind. </p>
<p>In 2016, 19 residents at a care home for people with mental disabilities were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/26/japan-care-home-attack-satoshi-uematsu-horrifying-vision-disabled-people">stabbed to death</a>. A former employee at the care home who confessed to the killing claimed that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>it is better that disabled people disappear. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 2008, a 24-year-old unemployed man who <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/12/19/national/ibaraki-station-stabber-gets-his-wish-the-death-sentence/#.XO09PS2B3OQ">wanted to</a> “end his boring life” went on a stabbing spree in Ibaraki, killing two people and injuring seven. </p>
<p>In the same year, a 25-year-old man stabbed and killed seven people and injured ten in Akihabara, a busy shopping hub in Tokyo. A month before the incident, the attacker <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-06-10/japan-massacre-suspect-said-he-was-ugly-lonely/2466572">wrote</a> on an online platform: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I don’t have a single friend and I won’t in the future. I’ll be ignored because I’m ugly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Children have also been victims of indiscriminate attacks. In 2001, a 37-year-old man killed eight children at a school in Osaka. He later <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/09/world/knife-wielding-man-kills-8-children-at-japanese-school.html">told police</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I hate everything. I tried to commit suicide several times but could not die. I wanted to be arrested and executed by the death penalty.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">The evidence is in: you can't link imprisonment to crime rates</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Low crime rates, but fear of crime is growing</h2>
<p>Despite these incidents, Japan remains one of the safest countries in the world. </p>
<p>According to the 2016 <a href="https://dataunodc.un.org/crime">UNODC statistics</a>, Japan’s rate of intentional homicide per 100,000 population is the lowest in the world at 0.3 (if we exclude Macau at 0.2), compared with 0.9 for Australia and the 5.4 for the United States.</p>
<p>Officially recorded cases of murder in Japan have been <a href="https://www.crimeinfo.jp/data/statistics_09-2/">decreasing steadily since the 1960s</a>. The recorded statistics for murder averaged around 3,500 cases per year in the 1960s, decreasing to around 1,500 cases per year in the 1980s, and down to 710 cases in 2017. </p>
<p>The same downward trend can be seen in <a href="https://www.crimeinfo.jp/data/statistics_11/">murder convictions</a>: 234 cases in 2017, down from 609 cases in 2007.</p>
<p>While Japan’s remains extremely low, the Japanese public’s fear of crime has been growing. <a href="https://apjjf.org/-Tom-Ellis--K--HAMAI/2340/article.pdf">Government surveys</a>, and the results of the <a href="https://www.syaanken.or.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/17313-7.pdf">Japan General Social Survey</a>, show that the Japanese public are more fearful of being a victim of crime, and believe that violent crime is on the rise. At the same time, Japanese public are ill- and mis-informed about crime and punishment issues. </p>
<p>For example, while the majority of the Japanese public supports the death penalty, the same survey respondents <a href="https://www.deathpenaltyproject.org/knowledge/the-public-opinion-myth-why-japan-retains-the-death-penalty/">lacked basic knowledge</a> about how it works, such as the number of people executed per year, or the method of execution. Respondents overestimated rate of homicides and violent crimes.</p>
<p>The perception gap between actual crime trends and public perceptions is not unique to Japan. It is seen in countries, such as the <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/publication/1970-01/sri_crime_closing_the_gaps_012008.pdf">UK</a>, <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/crime-rate-perception-gap/">US</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265760925_Mind_the_Gap_Bridging_the_Perception_and_Reality_of_Crime_Rates_with_Information">Colombia</a>. And while people generally believe that the crime is on the rise, they are less pessimistic about local crime and overly pessimistic about national crime rates.</p>
<h2>An ageing prison population</h2>
<p>The low crime rate in Japan makes a horrific crime like the Kawasaki stabbing newsworthy. The moral panic created by media coverage of horrific crimes in the past has an impact on public perceptions of crime, <a href="https://apjjf.org/-Tom-Ellis--K--HAMAI/2340/article.pdf">but also on criminal justice policy and practice</a>. </p>
<p>Some researchers <a href="https://apjjf.org/-Tom-Ellis--K--HAMAI/2340/article.pdf">argue</a> that public’s fear of crime, and politicians’ response to the fear, resulted in new legislation imposing more severe punishment on offenders. This widened the criminal justice net, with a greater proportion being diverted into the formal criminal justice process.</p>
<p>The result of the expanded use of criminal justice system to deal with deviance, combined with the ageing population, has resulted one in five prisoners being over the age of 60. Japanese prisons have been described as a “<a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/04/16/national/social-issues/prisons-japan-becoming-like-nursing-homes-amid-surge-elderly-offenders/#.XO1LTy2B3OQ">nursing home</a>”. Recidivism is <a href="http://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/en/66/image/image/h004008002001e.jpg">high among elderly prisoners</a> because they lack family and financial support. In 2016, of the 2,500 prisoners over the age of 65 who were convicted in 2016, around a third had six or more previous convictions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276914/original/file-20190529-126239-gyvwka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prisoners receive dialysis treatment with at a medical prison in Tokyo as a prison officer watches on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.crimeinfo.jp/gallery/">CrimeInfo</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aum-shinrikyo-subway-sarin-attack-japanese-cult-members-await-execution-two-decades-on-90890">Aum Shinrikyo subway sarin attack: Japanese cult members await execution two decades on</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Lone attacks are different in Japan</h2>
<p>After the Kawasaki stabbing, Japan’s education minister, Masahito Shibayama, announced that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe had <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/05/28/national/crime-legal/11-reported-stabbed-kawasaki-including-elementary-school-children/#.XO3OXS2B3OR">instructed him</a> to make every possible effort to secure safety at schools. </p>
<p>Unlike a number of lone actor attacks that have occurred outside of Japan in recent years – such as the Christchurch mosque attacks and the Pittsburgh synagogue attack – the attacks carried out in Japan are not motivated by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-17/christchurch-attacks-stark-warning-of-toxic-hate-flourishing/10909394">right-wing ideology</a>. </p>
<p>What lone attackers in Japan have in common are social exclusion and low social capital. A further expansion of formal social control through the use and threat of imprisonment is unlikely to prevent future attacks.</p>
<p>I grew up in Tokyo, where it was – and still is – normal <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/10/why-japanese-kids-can-walk-to-school-alone/408475/">for children as young as six to play without the presence of an adult, or to take public transport alone</a>. I hope that the Kawasaki stabbing does not result in <a href="https://www.mpg.de/6347636/terrorism_traffic-accidents-USA">“indirect damage”</a> that further excludes vulnerable people via the criminal justice system, or curtails the freedom and independence currently enjoyed by Japanese school children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mai Sato receives funding from DFAT and the European Commission. Mai is affiliated with CrimeInfo. </span></em></p>Despite low crime rates, indiscriminate mass stabbings aren’t unheard of in Japan. But unlike recent mass killings in Western countries, they aren’t motivated by right-wing ideology.Mai Sato, Fellow, School of Regulation and Global Governance, The Australian National University, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058462018-11-05T03:58:47Z2018-11-05T03:58:47ZFactCheck: does Victoria have Australia’s highest rate of crime?<blockquote>
<p>But sadly, under Daniel Andrews Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime.</p>
<p><strong>– Leader of the Victorian Liberal Party Matthew Guy, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-liberals-launch-tilt-at-state-leadership/news-story/65922b5514e5fbf3a8f5042c2ae37dda">speaking</a> at the party’s election campaign launch, 28 October, 2018</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Victorian Liberal Party has promised to take a tough stance on crime if elected on November 24, with proposals including mandatory minimum sentencing for repeat offenders of serious crimes (including murder, rape, aggravated home invasions, aggravated burglaries and car-jackings) and an overhaul of the bail system. </p>
<p>At the party’s election campaign launch, Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy said Labor had presided over a “law and order crisis”, adding that under Premier Daniel Andrews, “Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Response from Matthew Guy’s office</h2>
<p>The Conversation asked a spokesperson for Matthew Guy for sources and comment to support his statement, but did not receive a response before deadline.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it is possible to check the statement against publicly available data.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Leader of the Victorian Liberal Party Matthew Guy said that “under Daniel Andrews, Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime”. The assertion is incorrect.</p>
<p>The Andrews government was elected in November 2014. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Crime Victimisation Survey data, between July 2014 and June 2017 (the latest figures), Victoria did not top the nation in terms of crime rates for any but one of the 11 measured categories of personal and property crime.</p>
<p>Looking at the Crime Victimisation Survey results for three years up to and including 2016-17, Victoria showed the highest rate of sexual assault in two of those years. However, the ABS said the sexual assault data must be used with caution due to the small sample size. </p>
<p>For the other ten crime categories, the Victorian crime rate was lower than at least one other state or territory in each of the three years considered. </p>
<p>ABS Recorded Crime data show that between 2014 and 2017, Victoria did not have the highest rate of murder in the nation, nor did it have the highest rate of criminal offenders proceeded against by police at any time between November 2014 and June 2017.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Comparing crime rates between states and territories</h2>
<p>Making comparisons between recorded crime rates in different states and territories is fraught with difficulty, due to the differences in police practices and counting methods across the nation. </p>
<p>The most reliable data set for this task is the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4530.0Main+Features12016-17?OpenDocument">Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Crime Victimisation Survey</a>. Published <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=4530.0&viewtitle=Crime%20Victimisation,%20Australia%7E2016-17%7ELatest%7E16/02/2018&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=4530.0&issue=2016-17&num=&view=&">annually since 2008-09</a>, the national survey collects data on people’s experience of violence and household crime. </p>
<p>The survey records both reported and unreported crimes. Given that not all crimes are reported to police, this provides us with a bigger picture.</p>
<p>The questions asked in the ABS Crime Victimisation Survey are the same for all states and territories. The victimisation rates represent the prevalence of selected crimes in Australia, expressed as a percentage of the total relevant population.</p>
<h2>Personal crime statistics</h2>
<p>This part of the survey records experiences of crime across: physical assault, face-to-face threatened physical assault, non-face-to-face threatened physical assault, sexual assault and robbery. </p>
<p>The Andrews government was sworn in on December 4, 2014, and the latest ABS Crime Victimisation Survey data are for 2016-17.</p>
<p>In the years <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D86E52390995CC89CA2580BA0018B424?opendocument">2014-15</a>, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D6A3384BCF91637DCA258235000CBF8E?opendocument">2015-16</a> and <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4530.0">2016-17</a>, Victoria did not have the highest rate in the nation for physical assault, face-to-face threatened physical assault, non-face-to-face threatened physical assault, or robbery. </p>
<p>Victoria did have the highest reported rate for sexual assault in 2015-16, and equal highest in 2014-15. However, the ABS warned that the data for Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia should be treated with caution due to the small sample size, and a relative standard error of 25% to 50%.</p>
<p>In addition, the data for Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory had a relative standard error <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4530.02016-17">greater than 50%</a>, and was considered too unreliable for general use.</p>
<p>The most recent Crime Victimisation Survey data are presented below. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VruH5/5/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="580"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>Property crimes statistics</h2>
<p>The property crime element of the ABS survey covers home break-ins, attempted home break-ins, motor vehicle thefts, thefts from motor vehicles, malicious damage to property and other theft.</p>
<p>At no time in the years <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4530.0Main+Features100062014-15?OpenDocument">2014-15</a>, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D6A3384BCF91637DCA258235000CBF8E?opendocument">2015-16</a> or <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4530.0">2016-17</a> did Victoria have the nation’s highest rate of victimisation on any of these measures.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the latest available data:</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n4TAP/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="520"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>Murder and homicide</h2>
<p>We can look to a different ABS data set – <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=4510.0&viewtitle=Recorded%20Crime%20-%20Victims,%20Australia%7E2017%7ELatest%7E28/06/2018&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=4510.0&issue=2017&num=&view=&">ABS Recorded Crime - Victims</a> – to assess the murder rates across the states and territories for the calendar years from 2014 to 2017 (the latest year for which data are available). </p>
<p>However, there are missing data points in this record: no data were collected in the Northern Territory in 2016, Tasmania in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015, or the Australian Capital Territory in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2016. </p>
<p>Even with the missing data points, we can see that Victoria did not have the highest recorded murder rate in any of the years from the election of the Andrews government to 2017. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rGAfW/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<hr>
<p>The terms homicide and murder are sometimes used interchangeably, but in fact they mean different things. Homicide is a broader term that includes some counts of manslaughter, murder-suicides, and <a href="http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/homicide/">other incidents</a>.</p>
<p>The Australian Institute of Criminology publishes data from its National Homicide Monitoring Program. The <a href="http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/">latest report</a>, published in 2017, shows information between <a href="https://aic.gov.au/publications/sr/sr002">July 2012 and June 2014</a>, before the Andrews government was elected.</p>
<p>But as you can see from the chart below, the Northern Territory had a higher homicide incident rate than Victoria (and all other states and the Australian Capital Territory) every year between 1999-2000 and 2013-14. You can explore an interactive version of the chart <a href="http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/1_trends/">here</a>.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tljGH/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>The issues with recorded crime data</h2>
<p>The ABS publishes “Recorded Crime” data on the number and rate of crime victims (with the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4510.0Main+Features12017?OpenDocument">latest data</a> reporting on the 2017 calendar year), and offenders formally proceeded against by police (with the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4519.0Main+Features12016-17?OpenDocument">latest data</a> reporting on the 2016-17 financial year).</p>
<p>These data sets aren’t ideal for comparing crime rates between states and territories, for a few reasons. </p>
<p>The data come from state and territory police administrative computer systems. Each state has subtly different recording methods and police practices, and this affects the comparability of data. </p>
<p>In addition, people’s willingness to report crime to police can differ across the states and territories. As such, the crime victims data are less reliable for measuring crime rates than the Crime Victimisation Survey.</p>
<p>The ABS introduced rules to guide the recording and counting of criminal incidents for statistical purposes, to enable consistency across the states and territories. But there remains some <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4510.0Explanatory%20Notes12017?OpenDocument">variability in the interpretation of the rules</a>. </p>
<p>The offender data are considered to be a reliable indication of <em>legal actions</em>. But they’re not a direct indicator of crime rates, due to the issues outlined above. Different jurisdictions also have different crime “clear up rates” (the percentage of a category of crimes that are solved).</p>
<p>The number of people arrested and proceeded against, and the types of crimes they are arrested for, can have as much to do with changes in legislation, police policy and practices in different jurisdictions as the number of criminal incidents committed. </p>
<p>It’s very important to keep those caveats in mind when looking at the data in the following chart.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W1yZS/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>What’s the picture for Victoria?</h2>
<p>The data in the chart below is published by the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency, and relates to crime in Victoria only. </p>
<p>The offences shown were chosen as their recorded incidence is generally considered to reflect their prevalence in the community, and the recorded rates are not overly impacted by law enforcement initiatives. </p>
<p>The recorded rates of drug offences and justice offences, by comparison, can be heavily affected by discretionary police decisions.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pNSz9/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="550"></iframe>
<hr>
<p><strong>– Don Weatherburn, with Jackie Fitzgerald, director, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This FactCheck is accurate and based on reliable data. The verdict is correct: Victoria does not have the highest rate of crime.</p>
<p>It it worth observing that the latest federal <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/justice">Report on Government Services (2018)</a> does highlight a significant drop in perceptions of public safety in Victoria. Often the public’s perceptions do not match the reality.</p>
<p>It is also noteworthy that the <a href="https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-crime-data/recorded-criminal-incidents-2">number and rate of criminal incidents in Victoria</a> have been at higher levels in recent years compared to before the Andrews government came to power. <strong>– Terry Goldsworthy</strong></p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GYUey/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy said under Premier Daniel Andrews, ‘Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime’. Is that right?Don Weatherburn, Director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research; Adjunct Professor, School of Social Science, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1020302018-09-18T04:58:33Z2018-09-18T04:58:33ZLegalising medical marijuana shows no effect on crime rates in US states<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234154/original/file-20180829-195316-1bwvcue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=378%2C184%2C5229%2C3438&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Since California passed the first medical marijuana law in 1996, 30 US states and the District of Columbia have legalised medical marijuana.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Those who oppose medical marijuana legislation often cite the strong <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/ondcp/policy-and-research/adam_ii_2013_annual_report.pdf">association</a> between marijuana use and criminal activity. This includes the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jeff-sessions-legal-marijuana-cause-violent-crime-lack-evidence-cannabis-us-attorney-general-donald-a7604341.html">US federal government</a>, which continues to classify marijuana as a schedule one drug. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.07.003">analysed</a> city-level data from states across the US and found that medical marijuana laws have little effect on violent or property crime in nearly all medical marijuana states. In the case of California, the crime rates actually show a substantial decrease of around 20%. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/medical-cannabis-users-could-still-be-criminalised-in-uk-despite-government-accepting-its-benefits-100356">Medical cannabis users could still be criminalised in UK despite government accepting its benefits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A natural experiment</h2>
<p>Medical marijuana laws represent a major change in marijuana policy in the US. Since California passed the first medical marijuana law in 1996, 30 US states and the District of Columbia have legalised medical marijuana. </p>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167629614000952">recent</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2015.03.007">studies</a> have found that marijuana use has increased among the general population (including non-patients) in medical marijuana states. It is difficult to disentangle causal effects of marijuana use from spurious correlations because of individual heterogeneity. Individuals who choose to use marijuana are likely different from those who don’t. </p>
<p>The passage of medical marijuana laws offers researchers a good natural experiment to study the causal effects of marijuana use on a variety of health outcomes, including <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/668812">drunk driving</a>, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/684043">hard drug use</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167629617311852">opioid painkiller use</a>. </p>
<h2>Users and crime</h2>
<p>The perception that marijuana use leads to crime can be traced back to the 1930s. In an effort to gain public support for marijuana prohibition, the Narcotics Bureau chief Harry Anslinger collected dubious anecdotes of marijuana causing crime and violence in his <a href="http://reefermadnessmuseum.org/chap10/Why-the-Gore-File.htm">infamous Gore Files</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/re-criminalizing-cannabis-is-worse-than-1930s-reefer-madness-89821">Re-criminalizing cannabis is worse than 1930s 'reefer madness'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is indeed a strong correlation between marijuana use and criminal activity. For example, the <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/ondcp/policy-and-research/adam_ii_2013_annual_report.pdf">Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Program</a> shows that more than half of adult male arrestees tested positive for marijuana use. Financial needs can lead to property crime for some heavy users. </p>
<p>Research also shows that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359178903000867">long-term neuropsychological effects of marijuana</a> can harm the brain, causing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359178916300040">violent behaviours</a>. Some studies have identified brain abnormalities in MRI images among casual and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2005.02.012">abstinent users</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, such correlation could be entirely spurious because marijuana users have a higher propensity to commit crimes. Only people who are willing to break laws would use marijuana under prohibition. </p>
<h2>Effects of medical marijuana laws on crime</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.07.003">paper</a>, we used data on criminal offence, spanning more than 25 years (1988–2013). We analysed relatively large cities with at least 50,000 residents. In addition to traditional regression analysis, we adopted the state-of-the-art <a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/early/2018/04/13/jech-2017-210106">synthetic control method</a> that allows us to estimate the effects of medical marijuana laws in each city. </p>
<p>To make cities with and without medical marijuana laws comparable, we created a synthetic city from a pool of cities without medical marijuana laws. That way the pre-law crime rates in the synthetic city and the city of interest are as close as possible. </p>
<p>We then used the post-law crime rate in the synthetic city as an estimate for the medical marijuana city’s counterfactual crime rate – the rate you would expect if the medical marijuana law had not been passed. The difference in post-law crime rates between the synthetic city and the medical marijuana city is the causal effect of medical marijuana law on crime. </p>
<p>We found that the actual crime rates in medical marijuana cities generally move closely with the synthetic cities. This suggests no substantial effect on both violent and property crime. The results remain similar when we look at specific crimes such as murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary and theft. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.07.003">findings</a> show that we can safely rule out that medical marijuana laws and the associated marijuana use cause increased crime. The strong correlation between marijuana use and criminal activity is mostly spurious. </p>
<h2>Californian experience</h2>
<p>Violent and property crime rates dropped by 20% since California passed medical marijuana legislation more than two decades ago. It was reported that there are <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113822156">more marijuana dispensaries</a> than Starbucks or McDonalds in cities like Los Angeles. </p>
<p>California’s medical marijuana law may have shrunk the marijuana black market and its associated violence. It may have helped to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/676932">reallocate</a> police resources towards deterring crime instead of enforcing drug laws. The presence of dispensaries may also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2017.04.001">deter crime</a>. They are required to deal in cash and thus invest heavily in security. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecoj.12521">study</a> found a similar decrease in violent crime in states bordering Mexico, including California. It argues that medical marijuana legislation reduced crime associated with drug trafficking through Mexican cartels. </p>
<p>The US experience suggests that most stigmas associated with marijuana use are not supported by empirical evidence. Although medical marijuana laws increase heavy marijuana use among non-patients, they do not lead to negative social outcomes. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.07.003">study</a> provides robust evidence that medical marijuana legislation does not contribute to crime, and possibly helps to reduce it. This conclusion may relieve a major concern for countries considering to legalise medical marijuana, including New Zealand and Canada. The US experience is unique, especially because of its <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1870355016300039">war on drugs</a>. But the main conclusion that increased marijuana use does not cause more crime likely applies in other countries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yu-Wei Luke Chu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People opposing medical marijuana are often concerned about increased crime rates, but analysis of city-level data across the US found medical marijuana laws have little effect on crime.Yu-Wei Luke Chu, Senior Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1008502018-08-07T13:51:54Z2018-08-07T13:51:54ZWhen temperatures rise, so do crime rates: evidence from South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230006/original/file-20180731-136661-xiq3dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C133%2C664%2C674&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This sign could be interpreted literally.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few decades there has been a growing <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237950620_Homicide_in_Sao_Paulo_Brazil_Assessing_spatial-temporal_and_weather_variations">worldwide interest</a> in examining the relationship <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916510397758">between weather and various types of crime</a>. Most research in this area has however produced inconsistent and often paradoxical results. For example, some studies have found <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/44/2/276/562930">no seasonal fluctuations</a> in crime. Others have however found <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916510397758">an increase in crimes</a> during either the colder winter months or warmer summer months.</p>
<p>Very little is known, however, about how the magnitude and spatial distribution of criminal activity in South Africa is affected by climatic conditions. So we set out <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1498384">to determine</a> whether there is an association between criminal activity and climate in the country’s capital city, Tshwane.</p>
<p>We were specifically interested in whether the magnitude of crime changes depending on extreme weather conditions, notably temperature and rainfall. In other words: do extremely hot days or high-rainfall days experience higher or lower rates of violent, property or sexual crime? </p>
<p>We also wanted to know whether the spatial distribution of violent, property or sexual crime changes depending on the type of extreme weather event. Simply put, does crime occur in different places on extremely cold days than it does on really hot ones? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1498384">Our results</a> indicate a strong association between temperature and criminal activity. That is, as the temperature goes up, so too, does crime. There’s a less significant association between rainfall and crime. The spatial distributions of all types of crime are found to differ significantly depending on the type of weather extreme observed.</p>
<p>The results could help law enforcement agencies better understand how weather affects crime patterns in South Africa’s urban areas and develop and implement appropriate crime prevention measures.</p>
<h2>Diving into data</h2>
<p>The notion that there’s a relationship between criminal activity and climate is nothing new. Over a century ago Belgian sociologist and scholar Adolphe Quételet <a href="https://archive.org/details/treatiseonmandev00quet">observed</a> that crimes against people reach a maximum during the warmer summer months, while crimes against property reached a peak during winter.</p>
<p>He <a href="http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780195396607/obo-9780195396607-0130.xml">later developed</a> the temperature-aggression theory, which provides a psychological explanation for the increase in crime during warmer months. It suggests that warmer temperatures will lead to an increase in an individual’s frustration and discomfort levels and so increase the likelihood of aggression. This could in turn result in interpersonal crimes such as assault.</p>
<p>We used data and statistical analysis to find an association – if any – between extreme weather conditions and crime in the nation’s capital, Tshwane. We obtained climate data for the city from the South African Weather Service for a 5-year period from September 2001 to the end of August 2006.</p>
<p>Next, we calculated daily average temperatures before extracting the ten hottest for each year of the five years. That gave us a dataset of 50 days. The process was repeated for low-temperature days, high-rainfall days, no-rainfall days and random-rainfall days.</p>
<p>Then came crime data for the same period. We obtained this from the South African Police Services’ Crime and Information Analysis Centre. The data included the geographical location of each crime; the date and time of day that each crime was committed; and the specific type of crime committed. A total of 1,361,220 crimes were reported in the five-year period across 32 different categories. All crime was then categorised into either violent, sexual or property crimes before we calculated a count of crime per type per day.</p>
<p>Next, we used a recently developed <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622809000046">spatial point pattern test</a> to determine whether the spatial distribution of crime on the three types of days – very hot, very cold and rainy – changes. That is, does the spatial patterning of crime in Tshwane change depending on certain rainfall and temperature conditions?</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Our findings demonstrate that the amount of violent, sexual and property crime in the city of Tshwane is significantly affected by temperature and, to a lesser extent, rainfall.</p>
<p>The magnitude of violent, sexual and property crime was higher on hot days compared to cold or random temperature days. Violent crimes increased by 50% on hot days compared to very cold days. Sexual crimes increased by 41% and property crime by 12%. Violent and sexual crimes in Tshwane also decreased on high-rainfall days. Surprisingly, property crime was found to increase slightly on heavy rainfall days, though only by 2%.</p>
<p>Second, the spatial distribution of violent and property crime was found to differ on days by temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable change in the way that particularly violent and property crime is spatially distributed in Tshwane depending on the weather conditions. We also found that the distribution of sexual crime did not seem to differ significantly by temperature or rainfall.</p>
<p>More research is needed to confirm these findings and to determine if the results can be generalised to other urban areas in South Africa.</p>
<h2>Applications</h2>
<p>The results of this research have the potential to inform how law enforcement agencies and other relevant stakeholders tackle crime in South Africa.</p>
<p>Our findings can be used to identify communities that are more prone to crime under certain meteorological conditions and allow stakeholders to target these neighbourhoods and plan interventions. It also allows stakeholders to adequately develop and implement suitable intervention practices in similar at-risk neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>For the police and others responsible for specifically addressing long-term solutions to crime, crime pattern analysis can utilise the understanding of how weather events influence crime patterning and provide measures to take appropriate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Breetzke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Data and statistical analysis were used to find an association - if any - between extreme weather conditions and crime in South Africa’s capital.Gregory Breetzke, Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/944422018-04-05T13:25:05Z2018-04-05T13:25:05ZSpike in London murders can’t be reversed by New York-style police crackdown alone<p>A spike in murders in London that saw more people killed in the city in February and March than in New York, has provided newspapers with some <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5566689/London-murder-rate-overtakes-New-York-time-including-11-killings-just-16-days.html">sensational headlines</a>. Of the more than <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43640475">50 murders</a> to have taken place in London so far in 2018, the vast majority are the result of knife crime. </p>
<p>While comparisons between <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43628494">murders in New York and London</a> make for a good story, simplistic headlines based on one-dimensional readings of statistics can be seriously misleading. UN Office on Drugs and Crime <a href="https://data.unodc.org">global homicide figures</a> show that in 2014 the UK recorded 594 homicides, giving it a murder rate of 0.92 per 100,000 people. In contrast, the rate for the US with 15,696 deaths was 4.88 per 100,000. Yet Latvia has a 4.11 per 100,000 homicide rate – a fact explained by a smaller population and a total of just 81 homicides. Of course, Latvia is not as murderous as American inner-city housing projects, nor is it four times more dangerous than the UK.</p>
<h2>What happened in New York</h2>
<p>In 2017, there were <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nypd-celebrates-record-drop-murders-shootings-2017-article-1.3740097">290 homicides in New York</a> – the lowest number since the 1940s. The city has a longstanding association with violence. Crime rates spiked in the 1980s and early 1990s, but subsequently New York has been spectacularly rehabilitated. It now has one of the lowest murder rates of any US city. </p>
<p>There have been various explanations for this, from changing <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/">lead levels in petrol</a> to changes in <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Freakonomics-Economist-Explores-Hidden-Everything/dp/0141019018">abortion policy</a>, but an oft-cited factor is changes in policing. Picking up on this argument, The Sun newspaper recently <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5967079/bill-bratton-crack-down-petty-crime-london/">drafted in</a> the man hailed as the architect of the New York Crime drop, former US police Commissioner, Bill Bratton, to advocate a crackdown on crime in London.</p>
<p>Bratton – with the support of then-mayor of New York, Rudy Guiliani – introduced a “zero tolerance” policing policy from the mid 1990s which focused on quick arrests for minor offences and little tolerance for petty crimes. It was heavily influenced by “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows/304465/">broken windows theory</a>”, a simple concept that has persuasive power. Under this theory, visible symptoms of neighbourhood decline – the broken window or civil disorder – act as cues to encourage further crime and disorder, including serious violent crime. </p>
<p>Bratton – who was reappointed as NYPD police chief for a second two-year term in 2014 – has currency among conservatives, and it was reported that former British prime minister David Cameron <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9889634/Bill-Bratton-the-police-chief-they-wanted-for-the-Met.html">once hoped to install him</a> as head of the Metropolitan police. </p>
<h2>Laying blame in London</h2>
<p>Perhaps neighbourhood decline does drive crime, but London’s murders are not only happening in impoverished areas in decline. Great wealth and poverty exist almost cheek by jowl in London – and neighbourhood decline alone is not going to drive up a murder rate. </p>
<p>While there have been various factors suggested for London’s rising murder rate, like many complex social phenomena, the truth is that there are elements of truth in all of them – and no single causal driver. The Labour MP David Lammy has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/05/ministers-failing-to-act-over-soaring-rate-says-lammy">linked</a> the rise in violence to drug gangs and inequality, while the Metropolitan Police commissioner Cressida Dick’s commented that <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/31/cressida-dick-social-media-fuels-murder-knife-crime-among-children/">social media is fuelling</a> murder and knife crime among young people. </p>
<p>Dick is not the first to express concern about the <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/how-londons-knife-culture-is-being-fueled-by-jargon-social-media-and-music-a3579396.html">role of music</a> such as grime and drill in rising violence – and the media have variously referenced the usual suspects: lack of male role models, absent parents, violent media, gangs, and declining use of police stop and search powers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-police-stop-and-search-wont-stop-knife-crime-heres-why-90572">More police stop and search won't stop knife crime – here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet without blaming victims and recognising that every murder has an effect far greater than the act itself, there are some striking recurrent features to the backdrop of those killed in London. A large proportion of the victims have been young men from ethnic minorities. This does not mean that gangs or postcode rivalries are the “cause”, but it shows us violence tends to be concentrated in less affluent areas. </p>
<p>What the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43640475">victims</a> do show us, is that whether in New York or Newham, your chances of being murdered – which are already incredibly slight – are much more likely if you are poor, in a violent relationship, in a gang or already involved in crime. The likelihood of being randomly stabbed or shot is much, much lower than headline statistics indicate. </p>
<h2>Invest in policing</h2>
<p>Rather than zero tolerance, perhaps the lesson we ought to learn from the US is that of proper investment in policing. The Metropolitan police <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/government-cuts-lead-to-new-local-policing-system-0">has suffered</a> government cuts of more than £700m since 2010 and is expected to find a further £325m of savings by 2021. The “thin blue line” gets ever thinner – and people know it. Nationally, police numbers have <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42977661">been cut by around 21,000</a> since 2010, which has inevitably reduced community policing, investigation activity and more. Bratton might have used zero tolerance to drive down crime in New York, but he also <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5967079/bill-bratton-crack-down-petty-crime-london/">hired 6,000 extra police officers</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives’ austerity policies are putting the criminal justice system under strain. Violence has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/26/uk-prisons-violence-self-harm-continues-to-surge">risen in prisons</a> and the community alike, and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/legal-aid-cuts-england-wales-justice-system-crisis-report-moj-bach-commission-jeremy-corbyn-labour-a7959701.html">cuts to legal aid</a> are having serious implications for access to justice. </p>
<p>London’s murder rate is now at its highest for more than a decade. It is cutting young lives short and leaving a wake of human misery. “Zero tolerance” policing is not a magic solution – yet unfortunately, there are signs that police chiefs are turning to it. Dick has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43603080">declared</a> a return to more aggressive use of stop and search powers in violence-prone areas. But the trade off will be a return to tensions between police and ethnic minority communities that could cause more damage in the long term. Such a strategy is no way near as sensible as good community policing, because building ties and working closely with members of the community creates the very intelligence that can lead to real crime prevention. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/knife-crime-is-a-health-risk-for-young-people-it-cant-be-solved-by-policing-alone-91871">Knife crime is a health risk for young people – it can't be solved by policing alone</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To be fair to Dick, in a service cut to the bone, not all options are on the table – and she has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43603080">announced a task force of 100 officers</a> to tackle knife crime. What we ought to remember about Bratton’s initiative in New York was that it was well resourced and politically supported. So if the UK government really wants to stop the spate of killings in London, perhaps it should kill austerity first.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Treadwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There have been more than 50 murders in London already in 2018, and more in February and March than in New York.James Treadwell, Professor In Criminology, Staffordshire UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/717662017-02-06T11:17:44Z2017-02-06T11:17:44ZHow a rare murder in Iceland has chilled a nation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154796/original/image-20170130-7663-a8h9p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Icelandic crime.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Events in Iceland at the start of 2017 were eerily reminiscent of <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/features/scandi-noir-modus-swedish-drama-the-bridge-the-killing-borgen-lars-mikkelsen-house-of-cards-a7434216.html">Nordic noir</a>. Iceland in January. It is bleak, cold and dark. A young woman goes missing. Soon a national search operation is underway. Citizens are asked to check their gardens and outbuildings. How can someone just disappear from this peaceful, tight knit, low-crime community? </p>
<p>Sadly, eight days later, the body of 20-year-old Birna Brjánsdóttir <a href="http://icelandreview.com/news/2017/01/25/autopsy-confirms-birna-was-murdered">was found</a>. The missing person case has become a murder case. It is a tragic tale, reminiscent of those by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2006/jun/17/featuresreviews.guardianreview11">Arnaldur Indriðason</a>, Iceland’s foremost crime novelist, which has both gripped and mobilised this small island nation.</p>
<p>Brjánsdóttir was a young, pretty woman with no seeming connections to crime or other problems. In criminology, this kind of profile which generates particular sympathy is referred to as <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=102548">the “ideal victim”</a>. And it is a scenario that stirs a primeval fear – a loved one who goes missing without a trace. At the same time, the <a href="http://icelandmag.visir.is/article/identity-two-men-suspected-murdering-20-year-old-birna-brjansdottir-revealed">current suspects</a> are classic “outsiders” – or foreigners. Two sailors from Greenland who had docked in Iceland with a Greenlandic trawler. The vessel had already lifted anchor when the case developed and both suspects were flown back to Iceland by police helicopter. </p>
<p>It is a crime which would shock any community. But it is perhaps particularly shocking for the nation of Iceland as a whole. Iceland is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2010/mar/25/iceland-most-feminist-country">known for its egalitarianism</a> in a way that seems difficult to comprehend for most outsiders. Icelanders think of themselves as similar, kindred, and have a strong sense of community. <a href="http://grapevine.is/news/2016/10/18/icelands-unemployment-rate-finally-drops-below-2/">Unemployment is low</a>: everybody counts. </p>
<p>Historically, life in Iceland required high levels of human cooperation. With short summers and bitterly cold winters, it was all hands to the pump to secure survival. Icelanders think of themselves as inclusive, inventive, and resilient. To a surprising extent, the Icelandic self image is of one extended family with little social distance, class or other dividing lines. The lines to those in power are short. </p>
<p>When an event like this murder happens, it feels as if everyone has lost a daughter or sister, including those in power. <a href="http://icelandreview.com/news/2017/01/24/birnas-family-receives-letters-condolence">Heartfelt condolences</a> from the president of Iceland and the prime minister were issued. </p>
<p>Iceland is peaceful. Even in times of great upheaval, such as when it gained independence from Denmark in 1944, no blood was ever shed. The aftermath of the global financial crash that brought Iceland’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/17/the-miraculous-story-of-iceland/?utm_term=.a1532b16c051">economy to its knees</a> in 2008 led to a “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/icelands-pots-and-pans-revolution-lessons-from-a-nation-that-people-power-helped-to-emerge-from-its-10351095.html">pots and pans revolution</a>” that was noisy (demonstrators banged kitchenware) but peaceful. Iceland has no standing army and its police are unarmed. </p>
<p>In addition, Iceland is a low crime country. The <a href="http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2015/05/13/iceland_3rd_lowest_murder_rate/">annual murder rate</a> averages just 1.8 murders a year. There have been years without a single homicide, 2008 being the most recent one. And when murders do occur, they are mostly the results of intoxicated fights or family feuds. Unsolved murder cases, so-called murder mysteries, are almost unheard of. </p>
<h2>Murder in a cold climate</h2>
<p>Perhaps as a result, the <a href="http://www.prisonstudies.org/country/iceland">prison rate in Iceland</a> is one of the lowest in Europe. Prisons, which are few and far between, are small, benign, but also underfunded. No more than about 150 prisoners are serving time on any day in a total of six prisons. Only last year, the first purpose-built modern security prison, Hólmsheiði, opened while two older facilities were closed down. The prison system contains humanitarian elements with a focus on education and family visits. Family visits for a whole weekend are possible in the new facility, and open prisons are part and parcel of the system. This is quite reminiscent of the Norwegian prison system which is <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-so-successful-2014-12">frequently lauded</a> as Europe’s most enlightened. The Iceland prison service’s claim to fame is the imprisonment of numerous bankers, further to the global financial crash. </p>
<p>But the current murder case places the Iceland police in the spotlight. Cases such as this are make or break in terms of public confidence in the police and Iceland is no different. The police worked in conjunction with the media to galvanise the public. It seems that the investigation used CCTV, forensic analysis, appeals to the public and there was swift action when evidence emerged. </p>
<p>This is important. People in Iceland have long memories and older citizens will think back to events in 1974 when two men, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014/newsspec_7617/index.html">Guðmundur Einarsson and Geirfinnur Einarsson</a> (no relation) went missing in separate incidents 43 years ago. Although six people were convicted for their murders, there is widespread and enduring unease about the case, with suggestions of a miscarriage of justice through coerced false confessions. The bodies of both men have never been found. </p>
<p>This history elevates the importance of the Brjánsdóttir case even more. If there is a swift resolution to this case it will have been achieved the Icelandic way – by cooperation between police, media, forensic science, and, most importantly, the community. Whereas the crime is entirely at odds with life on this cold and windy Island on the edge of Europe, its successful resolution may just <a href="http://icelandmag.visir.is/article/video-a-large-crowd-gathered-reykjavik-saturday-remember-birna-brjansdottir">reinforce the community spirit</a> that continues to exist here.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helgi Gunnlaugsson receives funding from the University of Iceland Research Fund. Gunnlaugsson works for the University of Iceland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Pakes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What one isolated case tells us about crime and community on this special island.Francis Pakes, Professor of Criminology, University of PortsmouthHelgi Gunnlaugsson, Professor of Sociology, University of IcelandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/564992016-03-18T05:21:55Z2016-03-18T05:21:55ZGrand Theft Auto doesn’t cause crime, but poverty and alienation will<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115558/original/image-20160318-16330-s2pxfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Video games are an easy scapegoat for youth crime rates, but the evidence just isn't there. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GTA V, Videogame Photography</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Auto related crimes have increased 20 per cent in Melbourne over the last five years with <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/brazen-homeinvading-car-thieves-with-no-regard-for-the-law-taking-tips-from-video-games-police-say-20160310-gnfict.html">police citing</a> 16,000 cars stolen in 2015. And Victoria’s Chief Commissioner Graham Ashton is reportedly attributing a rise in thefts and burglaries to the “<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/grand-theft-auto-generation-to-blame-for-spike-in-crime-chief-commissioner-20160316-gnl2v9">Grand Theft Auto generation</a>”.</p>
<p>Victorian police, like many other <a href="http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/nj_assemblywoman_wants_to_ban.html">politicians</a> and <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/violent-video-games-incite-kids-to-crime-says-scipione/story-fn7y9brv-1226443402160">police chiefs</a>, cite violent films such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fast_and_the_Furious">Fast and the Furious series</a> and video games such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V">Grand Theft Auto V</a> as factors inciting youths to commit “stylized” crimes. </p>
<p>Mind you, Commissioner Ashton went on to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/grand-theft-auto-generation-to-blame-for-spike-in-crime-chief-commissioner-20160316-gnl2v9">tell 3AW that</a>, “We’re not actually dealing with more youth offenders but the youth offenders we’ve got are committing more and more offences.” </p>
<p>There seems to be more to this story than just violent video games.</p>
<h2>Violence and video games</h2>
<p>First person shooter games such as Call of Duty – where violence is viewed from the player’s perspective – are often used to explain <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/don-blame-video-game-industry-mass-shootings-expert-article-1.1297539">violent gun crimes</a>. </p>
<p>And the Grand Theft Auto series is commonly used to explain crimes such as auto theft because the game revolves around three criminals who drive around and steal cars. Grand Theft Auto V was the fastest-selling entertainment product in history, selling over 60 million copies.</p>
<p>Regardless of the crime, violent video games are <a href="https://theconversation.com/violent-videogames-arent-the-problem-its-in-our-genes-12064">commonly used as a scapegoat</a> to explain youth violence because it’s easy to draw mental comparisons between what an individual does on screen and what they do in real life.</p>
<p>Although studies show that playing violent video games does increase short term aggression, there’s no evidence that the effect is greater than other aggressive triggers (like getting cut off in traffic). And it’s important to remember studies exploring aggression only asked players to undertake relatively trivial acts, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/violent-videogames-arent-the-problem-its-in-our-genes-12064">blasting another player with a loud horn or making them eat chilli peppers</a>. Although uncomfortable, these are far from being acts of violence. </p>
<p>Studies exploring the relationship between actual violent acts and video games show a very different story. </p>
<p>By exploring the sales of violent video games along with patterns in violent crimes, US researchers have shown that violent crimes actually decreased in <a href="http://sci-hub.io/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2010.00216.x/abstract?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=">areas where video games were more popular</a>.</p>
<p>Another study found <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/soej.12139/abstract">no evidence </a> of an increase in crime associated with increased playing of video games and perhaps even a decrease.</p>
<p>A similar relationship was found when exploring <a href="http://eml.berkeley.edu/%7Esdellavi/wp/moviescrimeQJEProofs2009.pdf">violent crimes and movies</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115560/original/image-20160318-16324-1icfpu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There’s no evidence linking games like GTA to increased crime or violence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ReneSchroeder</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When delving deeper into relationships, researchers often find that video games alone aren’t enough to trigger long-term aggressive behaviour and that violent video games often need to be paired with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Christopher_Ferguson/publication/258129249_Violent_Video_Games_and_Aggression_Causal_Relationship_or_Byproduct_of_Family_Violence_and_Intrinsic_Violence_Motivation/links/00b49530411f544262000000.pdf">family violence and innate aggression</a>, as well as poor <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marjut_Wallenius/publication/223640397_Digital_game_violence_and_direct_aggression_in_adolescence_A_longitudinal_study_of_the_roles_of_sex_age_and_parentchild_communication/links/0fcfd50bf90e5ee865000000.pdf">communication with parents</a> to have an impact on a child. Thise means that things are more complicated.</p>
<p>Victoria’s Assistant Commissioner Robert Hill is also <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/brazen-homeinvading-car-thieves-with-no-regard-for-the-law-taking-tips-from-video-games-police-say-20160310-gnfict.html">quoted saying</a> that burglars were taking inspiration from movies including Fast and the Furious and Grand Theft Auto. But there is no evidence supporting the claim that games like Grand Theft are the <em>cause</em> of increased violence.</p>
<h2>What’s going on?</h2>
<p>The increase in car thefts in the Melbourne area is reportedly attributed to the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/violent-car-thief-threatens-to-shoot-officer-investigating-apex-gang-20160310-gnga2m.html">Apex gang</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-16/apex-gang-member-says-riot-blown-out-of-proportion/7252384">Police say the Apex gang</a> largely comprises of individuals between the ages of 12 and 19 of South Sudanese, Pacific Islander, Maori, and Anglo-Australian decent. They come largely from the Dandenong, a relatively poorer suburb compared to say, <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/brazen-homeinvading-car-thieves-with-no-regard-for-the-law-taking-tips-from-video-games-police-say-20160310-gnfict.html">Templestowe</a>, where some of the crimes are occurring.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-16/apex-gang-member-says-riot-blown-out-of-proportion/7252384">ABC interview with “James”</a>, reportedly an Apex gang member, indicated that he viewed life in Dandenong as hard. There were, he said, “no jobs”. The gang, he said, “is just a group of youths. Everyone’s got to have friends, you know. It means brotherhood. Everyone looks after each other.”</p>
<p>Although Victoria’s Premier Daniel Andrews has said that that neither he nor Victorians are interested in “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-16/apex-gang-member-says-riot-blown-out-of-proportion/7252384">these ‘poor me’ stories</a>” of disadvantage, there is plenty of evidence that wealth disparity is a fundamental cause of increases in violent crimes.</p>
<p>Ground breaking studies by Martin Daly and Margo Wilson in the 1980’s demonstrated that those who had <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/016230958590041X">fewer opportunities and lacked viable options to increase their status in life</a> were more likely to commit violent crimes. They went further to demonstrate that income inequality could explain the high variation in homicide rates <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/cjccj43&div=22&id=&page=">between the US and Canada</a>. </p>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<p>What’s currently happening in Melbourne is unacceptable. But blaming video games is a pathetic attempt to steer the public’s eyes away from larger problems: disparity in wealth, youth unemployment, lack of decent schooling and general societal detachment.</p>
<p>But understanding the relationships between poverty, family relationships, education and crime is much more complicated. And more importantly, it requires more serious solutions such as the reorganisation of social and educational systems.</p>
<p>It’s far easier and simpler to blame the so-called “Grand Theft Auto Generation”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kasumovic receives funding from the ARC for his research exploring the evolution of behaviour. He also explores video games and how they drive individual behaviour in different contexts. </span></em></p>Victorian police are attributing a rise in car thefts to the “Grand Theft Auto Generation”. But blaming video games just distracts from bigger questions of inequality and societal detachment.Michael Kasumovic, Evolutionary Biologist, ARC Future Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/530642016-01-14T19:22:26Z2016-01-14T19:22:26ZDo we need more police, or are there better ways to cut crime?<p>Do we have enough police in Australia to manage our security needs? This is an important question because we spend more than <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2015/justice/police-services#key-facts">A$10 billion a year</a> to pay for the police services that we have. Should we spend more?</p>
<p>Let’s start with a little history. We have more police per head of population than ever before. Australia had 129 police officers per 100,000 population a century ago. Twenty years ago the figure was 221 per 100,000. It is now 270. Of the states, South Australia <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2015/justice/police-services/rogs-2015-volumec-chapter6.pdf">tops the list</a> with 314.</p>
<p>So there are more police. But if crime rates are rising, even these extra police numbers will be inadequate to meet the task of keeping us safe. True? No.</p>
<h2>Fact: crime rates are falling</h2>
<p>The fact of the matter is that crime rates are not rising. Over the last 15 years, generally speaking, crime has fallen – dramatically in some cases.</p>
<p><a href="http://aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/rpp/129/rpp129.pdf">Figures</a> show the following percentage changes in police-recorded crime across Australia from 2001 to 2011: fraud down 12%, arson down 14%, criminal damage down 22%, theft down more than 30% and burglaries and robberies down 50%. Even the numbers of homicides, which usually remain relatively stable, decreased by 23%. Car theft was down a staggering 60%, a trend that <a href="http://www.carsafe.com.au/images/stories/pdfs/Annual-Reports/NMVTRC_Annual_Report_2015_FINAL.pdf">continues today</a>.</p>
<p>The only crimes for which police recorded increases during that period were assaults (up 12%), shop theft (up 10%) and sexual assaults (up 3%). However, there is always a suspicion that these numbers often simply reflect levels of confidence in reporting by victims.</p>
<p>The above trends are mirrored by the data emerging from victimisation surveys. These are very useful in helping to eliminate the “dark” figure of crime that bedevils official police data.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) keeps very good victimisation data. The ABS reported in 2015 that the number of recorded victims across Australia decreased for the majority of offence categories between 2013 and 2014. </p>
<p>Robbery had the largest proportional decrease of some 16%. Homicides and car theft are two of the most reliable indicators of the accuracy of victimisation figures, as they rarely suffer from reporting or counting problems. The numbers of homicide and motor vehicle theft victims fell to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4510.0">five-year lows</a>, along with victims of abduction, robbery and unlawful entry with intent.</p>
<h2>So more police, less crime? It’s not that simple</h2>
<p>The next question is whether the high police numbers can take credit for these significant drops in crime. If that were the case, then one could assume that more police on the beat would drive crime down even further. The evidence for this argument, however, is scant. </p>
<p>It is well accepted that a combination of <a href="http://www.bpiepc-ocipep.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/lbrr/ctlg/dtls-en.aspx?d=PS&i=2107775">factors other than police strength</a> can accurately predict crime trends. The correlations between these factors and crime are well known to criminologists. They include education levels, employment levels, income levels, school-leaving rates, the number of families that regularly need crisis assistance, and the heterogeneity of a relevant population. None of these factors is under the influence of police numbers, or indeed police powers.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Any evidence that higher imprisonment rates significantly reduce crime is weaker than many people might think.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-221167801/stock-photo-large-prison-area-with-a-tall-watchtower-surrounded-with-fence-and-blue-sky-in-the-background.html?src=8UILlMrRx3lEZ4zMSuQDNA-1-8">shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Various commentators have <a href="http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/content/2/1/5">explained the crime drop</a>. The more reliable reasons are as follows: the better economic conditions in the West in the last three decades, better-financed social services, greater emphasis on intelligence-led policing, the removal of lead from petrol, and more affordable and available home alarms and business <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=ZmzezeutqRUC&oi=fnd&pg=PA149&dq=%E2%80%98Public-Private+Crime+Prevention+Partnerships&ots=7Lx-4Lcv84&sig=e7qK_SRdaeoTVX9_W3HXLgxPxUQ#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%98Public-Private%20Crime%20Prevention%20Partnerships&f=false">security services</a>. </p>
<p>One could add higher imprisonment rates to the list, but that is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">long bow to draw</a>.</p>
<p>My preferred explanation (with regard to serious assaults at least) is a demographic one. The last of the baby boomers reached 40 years of age a decade ago, and most violent crimes are committed by men aged 18 to 35.</p>
<h2>Is more police a cost-effective response?</h2>
<p>The final question is this: if we are to outlay more than the A$10 billion we spend on policing, what are the opportunity costs? In other words, what has to be cut from government expenditures to cover the increase?</p>
<p>Employment projects, especially for Indigenous Australians, pre-release and <a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-and-punishment-and-rehabilitation-a-smarter-approach-41960">rehabilitation schemes</a>, diversion schemes, enhanced parole supervision, programs to prevent child abuse and neglect, and developmental educational schemes have each been shown to have a positive effect on crime prevention. Should we cut them? </p>
<p>Ironically, if we do, crime will increase and there will be greater pressure on governments to hire more police in response.</p>
<p>I don’t envy governments in setting their budgetary priorities, but some choices are better than others. Police are important, but not sufficient, in the crime-reduction effort. I have enormous faith in their abilities, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we need more of them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the Australian Labor Party, and is on the Board of the International Police Executive Symposium. </span></em></p>Police are important, but not sufficient, in the crime-reduction effort. I have enormous faith in their abilities, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we need more of them.Rick Sarre, Professor of Law, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/494032015-10-20T14:44:26Z2015-10-20T14:44:26ZIt’s about time cybercrimes appeared in crime figures if we are to take the problem seriously<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98894/original/image-20151019-23245-1p4j24g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Online crime isn't as new as all that but it does now count.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Olivier Le Moal/shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dramatic 40% increase in the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/15/rate-in-england-and-wales-soars-as-cybercrime-included-for-first-time">recently published crime statistics for England and Wales</a> might appear an abrupt end to the <a href="http://www.academia.edu/11209950/Why_the_crime_drop">year-on-year decline in crime rates</a> over the past 20 years or so. But in fact this substantial leap is explained by the inclusion for the first time of <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/year-ending-june-2015/index.html">estimates of online fraud and cybercrime</a> in the official statistics. </p>
<p>This raises the question as to whether crime is migrating online and if so, might this explain the crime drop – the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/the-mysterious-case-of-the-falling-criminal-offences-burglary-and-murders-down-again-statistics-show-9081599.html">continued fall in reported crime</a> since the 1990s. It’s important to realise that these aren’t all new crimes – just unreported in this format until now.</p>
<p>UK crime statistics are a combination of crimes recorded by the police (which now include cybercrimes) and estimates from the Crime Survey of England and Wales (which now includes questions about cybercrime and online frauds). Previously, police statistics included only those frauds reported to the <a href="https://www.cityoflondon.police.uk/advice-and-support/fraud-and-economic-crime/nfib/Pages/default.aspx">National Fraud Intelligence Bureau</a> via <a href="http://www.actionfraud.police.uk/">Action Fraud</a>, UK fraud prevention service <a href="https://www.cifas.org.uk/">Cifas</a>, or <a href="http://www.financialfraudaction.org.uk/">Financial Fraud Action UK</a>, which works against fraud on behalf of retailers. Online and cybercrime statistics were becoming conspicuous by their absence so their inclusion can only be welcomed.</p>
<h2>Is crime migrating online?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/98896/original/image-20151019-23270-h8nr38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An easier kind of crime.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">poosan/shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The combination of networked and digital technologies certainly gives crime a boost in terms of the <a href="http://sgocnet.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/04_Wall_pp71-901.pdf">volume and speed of crime and the distance</a> across which it is committed. The steady increase in computing power and fall in associated costs means that one person can now control a complete crime operation by themselves. Put another way, why commit a high risk robbery (with a gang of criminals), when you can now commit many low risk £1 thefts or frauds <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-risk-cyber-crime-is-really-a-mixed-bag-of-threats-34091">in the comfort of your own home</a>? </p>
<p>The evidence from research suggests online and offline crime is conducted by <a href="http://sgocnet.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/04_Wall_pp71-901.pdf">very different offending groups</a>. This is especially the case with the more serious cyber-enabled crime such as frauds, or cyber-dependent crimes which only exist because of the internet – for example extortion using denial of service attacks. However, while there is a logical appeal to the idea that the fall in crime was accounted for by crime migrating online, there’s actually little evidence to support it – and much arguing against it.</p>
<p>There has not been a migration of either crimes or criminals: these are entirely new opportunities for crime that have appeared alongside old opportunities, which suggests that a more fundamental change in behaviour has taken place. </p>
<p>Instead, falling crime rates seem to be the result of multiple factors. These include the long-term reduction of violence due to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615">cutting lead out of petrol</a>, careful management of statistics by the police, improvements to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/11209950/Why_the_crime_drop">locks and security technology</a>, demographic decline in the numbers of those at the key offending ages, or (as I am currently researching) an increase in time spent by young people doing online activities that keep them off the streets but also which appear to reduce offending practices through peer-to-peer “civilising”.</p>
<h2>The smoke and mirrors of statistics</h2>
<p>There are many practical problems in identifying to what extent a fraud is a cyber-fraud. This is especially the case when the obtaining of personal financial information takes place online through <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-cybersecurity-the-weakest-link-is-you-33524">phishing</a> or from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-dark-web-46070">dark web</a> site that sells <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10439463.2013.780227">stolen credit card details</a>, but when the monetary defrauding takes place offline, often by different people. Here the <a href="http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-research-and-information/research-publications/Documents/Research-2015/Economic-Cybercrime-FullReport.pdf">boundaries between frauds and cybercrimes can become confused</a>. This is especially the case when it comes to how it is recorded and when a crime needs to be flagged as a cybercrime (or not) for the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/421319/count-fraud-april-2015.pdf">purposes of police statistics</a>. Of course cybercrime is a broader range of criminal behaviour than just fraud, including hacking, offensive and obscene content, and harassment. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, some of the crimes now included have enormous impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure, while others less so. The hypothetical £1 frauds mentioned earlier are individually small, but only significant in size when aggregated together – which is hard for a system based on one offender, one crime. A weakness of including these crimes in the statistics is that many seemingly inconsequential crimes can inflate the statistics to obscure important larger crimes. </p>
<p>It’s quite right to encourage the <a href="http://www.actionfraud.police.uk/">collection of strategic intelligence</a> about online offending at a national level, while making sense of this information to provide some <a href="https://www.cityoflondon.police.uk/advice-and-support/fraud-and-economic-crime/nfib/Pages/default.aspx">tactical benefit for the police in their role</a>. But there is much more work to be done to turn the theory into good policing practice. </p>
<p>Making online crime more visible in the statistics indicates that society is getting real about new offending areas like cybercrime and online fraud. The new statistics will help us to learn how to manage them, because they are not going away. But crime statistics simply give us year-on-year information about changes in criminal behaviour and are little more than tools to guide policing policy and indicate its effects. What crime statistics should never become used for, in my view, is an indicator of the overall health of society. That is a much bigger and altogether different task.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David S. Wall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An increase in the crime figures doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in crime.David S. Wall, Professor of Criminology, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/441652015-09-09T10:17:24Z2015-09-09T10:17:24ZNew models to predict recidivism could provide better way to deter repeat crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93900/original/image-20150904-14617-87x5dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is there a better way to predict whether someone once released will return behind bars?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Prison bars via www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the US, a minority of individuals commit the majority of crimes. In fact, about two-thirds of released prisoners <a href="http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986">are arrested</a> again within three years of getting out of jail.</p>
<p>This begs the question: is there a way to predict which prisoners are more likely to become repeat offenders? </p>
<p>Recidivism prediction is important because it has significant applications in terms of allocating social services, policy-making, sentencing, probation and bail. From judges to social workers, all parties involved need to be able to work together and understand the risk posed by various individuals.</p>
<p>And if we can more accurately determine how likely someone who has just been released from prison is to commit another crime within a few years, we could potentially reduce crime rates and better allocate the money we spend on social services. </p>
<h2>A long history of trying to predict recidivism</h2>
<p>The criminal justice system has been using forecasting to make decisions since the 1920s, when parole boards <a href="http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2101&context=jclc">used</a> a mixture of factors such as age, race, prior offense history and school grades to determine whether an inmate should be paroled or not. </p>
<p>Much has changed since then, both in terms of the sheer quantity and quality of data at our fingertips and the ability to process all of that information quickly using machine learning methods that can produce accurate predictive models for recidivism. Machine learning methods are a form of artificial intelligence. They are computer algorithms that have the ability to learn over time, or in this case make better predictions as they acquire more data. </p>
<p>While these methods have a long history, there has been controversy as to whether they need to be very complicated with many inputs to be accurate or whether simple yet accurate “rules of thumb” exist for many prediction problems. Judges and prosecutors are less inclined to use a complicated (and incomprehensible) black box predictive model in which they can’t understand how the criminal history variables are used to predict recidivism. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.07810v2.pdf">current work</a> with colleagues Jiaming Zeng and Berk Ustun, we found that simple, transparent yet equally accurate predictive models often do exist for predicting recidivism. Such models would be more usable and defensible for all decision-making parties, and are created by machine-learning methods in a completely automated way using data. </p>
<p>As a data scientist, my aim is to build predictive models that assist people in making decisions, particularly in areas that are critical for the the smooth operation of society such as energy grid reliability, health care and computational criminology. Using statistical models such as those intended to predict recidivism, we can drastically improve the functioning of how we live and work. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Judges want more than just a black box they can’t understand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Black box via www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predicting a recidivist</h2>
<p>Today most judges are using rudimentary, ad hoc models for predicting whether someone before them is likely to be a recidivist. </p>
<p>Essentially, they use a score sheet during sentencing with a standard set of risk assessment tools. It’s a combination of people making the (manual) choice of which risk factors to include and an ad hoc optimization scheme for determining what score someone receives for each factor. </p>
<p>As a society, we need to do more to optimize these processes. We don’t want to make poor decisions – decisions that literally are often a matter of life and death. We absolutely need to optimize how our social services are allocated to have the most impact in decreasing our recidivism rates, which, as you know from the beginning of this article, are currently abysmal. </p>
<p>To create better scoring systems, we used the largest publicly available data set on recidivism. Our data set was compiled as part of a national study, and contained criminal histories from over 33,700 individuals in 15 states released in the same year. These individuals constituted over two-thirds of the prisoners released nationwide that year. </p>
<p>We found several advantages of our models on these data. First, they are accurate simply because they are based on large amounts of data. Second, they are simple, understandable, accurate and customizable. The models are also small enough that they each fit on an index card. That is, these are not complicated formulas. A judge could calculate the prediction of recidivism for an individual in his or her head, without a computer. They need only to add up the “points” for each risk factor (eg, three points for one risk factor, five points for another factor, etc). </p>
<p>The models are so simple-looking that they appear as if a person made them up, but that’s not how they were developed. In fact, behind the scene is a large data set, a sophisticated machine learning method and a lot of computational time on a powerful computer. </p>
<p>Because they are generated automatically, we were able to build a separate predictive model for each type of crime (violence, property, drugs, etc). Furthermore, the machine learning tools can be applied to data from different local areas, with differing populations; each jurisdiction could create its own models, which could potentially make the recidivism predictions much more accurate. Since the current models in use cannot be customized to the jurisdiction, they are “one size fits all” models, which might not be as relevant for some jurisdictions as much as others. By drilling down to the local level, the tools can become increasingly accurate. </p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>The machine learning models work by assigning points for various factors. If the points add up to above a certain threshold determined by the prisoner’s history, then the individual is likely to commit another crime within three years. </p>
<p>Our basic model used to predict arrest for any offense is a good example. If the individual was younger than 24 at the time of release, two points are assigned (younger people are more likely to commit violent crime). If there are at least five prior arrests, two points are assigned. If the person was over 40 when he or she was first confined, two points are deducted. </p>
<p>When all the points are tallied, if they add up to one or more, then the individual is likely to be arrested within three years. This is a very simple model, but we have found that even when we use state-of-the-art machine learning methods that use all of the features in the database, these methods do not perform any better than our simple model. </p>
<p>The variables and points are determined entirely by the machine learning algorithm applied to the data and not by hand. Some of these models are going to seem obvious to judges or prosecutors, but that’s good – it means these models will bring everyone onto the same page. Hopefully, it will make it more difficult to make a bad decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Predicting recidivism doesn’t need to be like the movie Minority Report, in which people are convicted of crimes before they’ve been committed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ww4f/6294541478/in/photolist-aAeaTd-6RRQ4p-2yWpQJ-cnh1qJ-wuU8Hr-2HJ1cy-9P9uk1-9P75B4-9P9Po3-9P7eXx-9P9RCs-9P7jwc-9P9DoA-9Pa1wA-9P9Fo7-2yT5D6-9P73zt-9P9z53-9P9Mz9-8JYGL-9P7gWx-6DmjJt-suEfbW-5Nz8j9-uDENuN-sdeRx9-sbvcFX-rxPQLb-8t59nR-4EU54R-sgEbCw-8BdEgr-pbMx7E-aM1CRD-5uk1U2-bz8Xu6-b463gP-2ukPff-xqVX53-Kocb-51szrt-8Rs2wq-8RoVgc-wuGGbC-6iq4pn-3kx9R-xpqKe7-6Dqc4U-bz8Xk4-a4Az61">Jon Gosier/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Some caveats</h2>
<p>That said, there are definitely weaknesses in our approach. In particular, our data set could be improved with more detail about the prisoners. However, since the data we used are publicly available and our software will also be public, people will be able to repeat and build on our work, and to use our code on their own data.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that these models can be helpful or dangerous, depending on how you use them. This isn’t like Minority Report, where you are convicting someone of a specific crime they haven’t committed yet. Rather, these models simply quantify the fact that people who committed more crimes in the past are more likely to run afoul of the law in the future.</p>
<p>However, if the models aren’t used for the right purpose, then there is the risk of inadvertently using them for discriminatory punishment. For instance, you wouldn’t want to use race as a factor for a model that determines sentencing; we don’t want to punish someone longer because of their race. </p>
<p>My team chose not to include any explicit socio-demographic factors, and we specifically excluded race as a variable. We did test how much more accurate the model would be by including race, but we found that it was not particularly useful. The models were almost equally accurate with and without including race as an explicit factor.</p>
<p>There is no reason for people to design models by hand anymore because automated ones can be simpler, more transparent, easier to use and just as accurate. They can ensure that decisions are more reliable and useful, preserving our resources for the people who need them most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cynthia Rudin receives funding from the National Science Foundation, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Philips, Siemens, Wistron, and the US Army. </span></em></p>Two-thirds of released prisoners in the US are arrested again within three years. Here’s how we could change that.Cynthia Rudin, Associate Professor of Statistics, MIT Sloan School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/466542015-09-09T07:00:26Z2015-09-09T07:00:26ZHard Evidence: crime rates are down, but is the world a less harmful place?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94176/original/image-20150908-4342-1v1b2uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/calliope/4011585847/sizes/l">Muffet/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the early to mid-1990s, several Western nations have recorded year-on-year declines for various types of criminal activity. And though there have been recorded increases in some crime types – the recent rises in recorded numbers of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28340196">sexual offences</a> in England and Wales is a prominent example – the overall pattern has been one of decline. These trends have been observed in the UK, North America and in several European nations. They are predominantly based on the findings of <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/the-international-crime-drop-jan-van-dijk/?isb=9780230302655">large-scale victimisation surveys</a>, which ask households about their experiences of crime, without requiring them to report to the police. </p>
<p>Governments and criminologists have been left puzzling over this apparent decline. What has been even more surprising is that the downward trend has continued during the onset of the global financial crisis; a period when it was <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7591072.stm">anticipated by some</a> that crime would actually increase. Improved security measures and resulting reductions in criminal opportunities, as well as increased rates of incarceration and changes to policing practices, are just <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9515.2012.00838.x/abstract;jsessionid=7DB546589269F6CFD100FB49F25AE6E2.f03t02?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=">some explanations that have been put forward</a>. </p>
<h2>A prettier picture</h2>
<p>For some time now, scholars such as <a href="http://www.penguin.co.uk/books/the-better-angels-of-our-nature/9780141959740/">Steven Pinker</a> have been telling us that – contrary to the picture of disorder, chaos and threat regularly presented in the popular press – we have actually become progressively more “civilised” and less violent, aggressive and harmful towards one another. </p>
<p>The BBC’s Mark Easton <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30098586">has explained</a> falls in the numbers of reported violent crimes in similar terms. He tells us not to panic, because crime is actually decreasing. In a similar vein to Pinker, Easton suggests that the reductions could be attributable to the emergence of a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22268015">new morality that is less tolerant of aggressive behaviour</a>. </p>
<iframe src="https://charts.datawrapper.de/giwyh/index.html" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="542"></iframe>
<p>Within politics, these figures have been met with optimism. In 2014, during his tenure as home office minister, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28340196">Norman Baker claimed</a> that there is now “less for the police to do”.</p>
<h2>A safer world?</h2>
<p>While there is cause to welcome a potential decline in crime, we should think twice before drawing the line between falling crime rates and a growth in harmonious social relations. It seems an easy link to make, but such assertions gloss over the complexities in the current picture of crime and harm. Although the instruments used by the victimisation survey to generate these figures have become more sophisticated over time, we know that they remain severely <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-accurate-are-british-crime-statistics-22462">limited</a> in a number of respects. For one thing, there are restrictions as to whom they can survey, and what crimes they can ask participants about.</p>
<p>Generally, victimisation surveys – like the <a href="http://www.crimesurvey.co.uk/">Crime Survey for England and Wales</a> – are focused on uncovering the extent of property crimes and some violent crimes. The problem is that “crime” obviously encompasses far more than this very narrow set of acts. Crime is a contested concept that is variable by context, and is bound to rigid legislation. So one of the outcomes of the surveys is to limit the debate about what is considered harmful in society to a certain set of criminal activities. This inevitably renders some crimes and harmful activities “<a href="http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/invisible-crimes-and-social-harms-pamela-davies/?isb=9781137347817">invisible</a>” and unacknowledged, which means they are less likely to be the subject of further study and investigation.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/17578043200300045">Professor Tim Hope reminds us</a> that inequality is known to affect the likelihood of someone becoming a victim. So crime may be falling, but perhaps it is more important to ask whether it is falling evenly, everywhere. For instance, in parts of Central America, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/22/el-salvador-worlds-most-homicidal-place">homicide rates have risen dramatically</a> in recent months; a trend largely concentrated among the region’s poorest populations. </p>
<p>In a global context where security has become a commodity, greater wealth enables better protection and insulation from crime. Current global inequalities, in terms of access to safety and security, beg the question of who is, and more importantly who is not, benefiting from any potential crime decline? </p>
<p>Poorer groups are more reliant on the police for protection: forces in England and Wales are currently having to manage severe cuts to their budgets, and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/28/burglary-victims-may-not-visit-police-budget-cuts">have already warned</a> that they will have to prioritise their responses to crimes. This concerning statement flies in the face of Norman Baker’s optimistic assertions about the amount of crime that police officers are currently having to deal with.</p>
<h2>Off the radar</h2>
<p>Crucially, a lot of crime is never recorded for various reasons. Many corporate, environmental, financial and organised crimes still lie outside the <a href="https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/tandfbis/rt-files/docs/Anchor+team+3/SCOA-2-e105.pdf">investigative radar</a> of both governments and criminologists, and very often manage to escape identification as illegal activity. Various crimes are concentrated in “<a href="http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/invisible-crimes-and-social-harms-pamela-davies/?isb=9781137347817">hidden</a>” spaces, such as the home, the workplace, and within cyberspace. </p>
<p>If we return to the issue of violence for example, the amount of domestic violence in England and Wales <a href="https://theconversation.com/official-statistics-mask-extent-of-domestic-violence-in-the-uk-43087">is seriously underestimated</a> in official statistics gathered through victimisation surveys. Meanwhile, cyberspace has extended opportunities for individuals to trade in <a href="http://crj.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/11/04/1748895811428173">illicit goods</a>, as well as to <a href="https://theconversation.com/revenge-porn-is-just-one-part-of-a-changing-picture-of-harassment-43703">harass and intimidate others</a>, away from the watchful glare of CCTV, the police, and the public.</p>
<p>The fall in crime rates certainly offers some potentially comforting reading. But we must not lose sight of the limitations of the surveys that produce them. Nor can we ignore the fact that they mask a complex picture of unreported crimes, mutating criminality, and harmful activities that can escape detection. Our commitment should be to develop a clearer understanding of these complexities, and the current inequalities and social divisions that overlap with crime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46654/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Ellis is affiliated with the British Society of Criminology. </span></em></p>Crime rates have fallen - but our expert explains that it’s too soon to celebrate.Anthony Ellis, Lecturer in Sociology and Criminology, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/407582015-06-16T02:07:51Z2015-06-16T02:07:51ZBurdens of war service create a strong case for a veterans’ court<p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/beyond-prison">Beyond Prison</a> series, which examines better ways to reduce re-offending, following the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-imprisonment">State of Imprisonment</a> series.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The centenary of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/gallipoli">Gallipoli landings</a> and other significant <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/anzac-centenary">wartime anniversaries</a> has prompted sober reflections on the enduring and multifaceted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/griffith-review-enduring-legacies">consequences of war</a> in the 20th century. While it is well known that the experience of war or military service has a wide range of effects on soldiers, the way these affect war veterans charged with criminal offences on return to Australia is less well known.</p>
<p>For serving armed forces personnel, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-australian-military-court-a-fair-go-for-defence-force-personnel-7861">military justice system</a> is a closed system for dealing with offences. Former soldiers charged with offences are dealt with through the ordinary criminal justice system.</p>
<h2>A special category of defendants</h2>
<p>We might think that these ex-soldiers’ treatment is indistinguishable from that of any other defendant. But <a href="http://cal.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/cal/article/view/22517/18316">research</a> reveals such individuals are accorded special status in criminal adjudication and sentencing practices – as “veteran defendants”. </p>
<p>This category of “veteran defendants” – apparent by implication, rather than on the face of the law – exposes the way in which the changing social meanings of war, soldiers and soldiering affect the legal treatment of veterans. </p>
<p>The research, based on a qualitative study of criminal cases of ex-soldiers charged with serious offences, shows that different ideas about individual responsibility for crime run through these cases. These ideas centre on the ex-soldier as a complex figure, simultaneously agentic and victim-like, courageous and vulnerable, both more and less than other defendants.</p>
<p>The research indicates that the special status of “veteran defendants” has two dimensions.</p>
<p>On the one hand, “veteran defendants” are seen as <em>über</em>-citizens, civic models or exemplars. They are people to whom gratitude is owed and who generate responsibility in others involved in the adjudication and evaluation process. </p>
<p>On the other hand, they are legal persons with “diminished capacity”. This means they have impaired or reduced responsibility for crime. </p>
<p>What explains the specialness of “veteran defendants”? Early in the 20th century, notions of bravery, loyalty and sacrifice animate the legal treatment of such individuals. As one <a href="http://cal.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/cal/article/view/22517">judge stated</a>, in some cases of “exceptional valour” or serious injury, “society owes them [soldiers] much”.</p>
<p>In more recent decades, and particularly since the Vietnam War, the idea of war as traumatic, perhaps even <a href="http://www.voiceforthedefenseonline.com/story/criminogenic-risk-assessments-what-are-they-and-what-do-they-mean-your-client">criminogenic</a>, has risen to the fore. With this has come an idea of the criminal actions of ex-soldiers as being in some way caused or determined. In the latter category of cases, an individual’s war trauma may form the basis of a defence (such as diminished responsibility) to the charge, or mitigate their sentence.</p>
<p>Even with reliance on clinical diagnoses such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/treating-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-confronting-the-horror-28731">post-traumatic stress disorder</a> (PTSD), however, the complexity of the personal <a href="https://theconversation.com/marked-men-anxiety-alienation-and-the-aftermath-of-war-38593">experience of war trauma</a> remains hard for the criminal legal system to grasp.</p>
<p>It is clear from this research that judges are trying to accommodate the specific circumstances of “veteran defendants”. But it’s not clear that individuals with significant mental disorders and other treatment needs can be appropriately dealt with in prison, nor that such an approach serves either victims or the wider community well. </p>
<h2>Veterans’ courts point way to broader reform</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83178/original/image-20150527-4828-1kkkb72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US veterans’ courts focus on rehabilitation to help prevent re-offending.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://nyshealthfoundation.org/about-us/annual-highlights/best-of-2010/replicating-veterans-treatment-courts/">NYS Health Foundation</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Veterans’ courts offer an alternative. As they operate <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans%27_court">in the US</a>, such specialist courts are therapeutic. They <a href="http://www.justiceforvets.org/what-is-a-veterans-treatment-court">focus on treatment and rehabilitation</a> rather than punishment.</p>
<p>Through such courts, drug treatment, job training and other programmes attempt to address the causes of criminal conduct. Judicial officers develop specific expertise in relevant cases. </p>
<p>Such specialist courts, like diversion and restorative justice approaches to crime, emphasise <a href="https://theconversation.com/justice-reform-a-better-way-to-deal-with-sexual-assault-19692">“participation, validation, collaboration and accountability”</a> on the part of the defendant. These courts also have the potential to go some way to serving victims’ interests by reducing recidivism.</p>
<p>Australian experiences of war have varied significantly. But, despite declining numbers of active military personnel, fewer military casualties and scant public support for war or overseas troop deployments, the social status of returned service men and women has remained high. </p>
<p>Capitalising on this status, and seizing an opportunity to reset our approach to crime, the creation of veterans’ courts would represent another way of providing ongoing support to military veterans.</p>
<p>Discussion of such a proposal could be part of a wider community conversation about criminal justice and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-imprisonment">imprisonment</a>. The latest evidence of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">disconnect between imprisonment rates and crime rates</a> provides yet more support for a fundamental reconsideration of criminal justice in Australia.</p>
<p>The creation of a specialist court for veterans may well generate real momentum for treatment-oriented courts. It would thus represent the vanguard of a wider, long-term movement towards a justice system that genuinely tackles the causes of crime. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Beyond Prison series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/beyond-prison">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research is supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) grant Responsibility in Criminal Law (DE130100418).</span></em></p>The creation of veterans’ courts could be part of a fundamental shift to a criminal justice system that genuinely tackles the causes of crime.Arlie Loughnan, Associate Professor in Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/430872015-06-15T05:12:20Z2015-06-15T05:12:20ZOfficial statistics mask extent of domestic violence in the UK<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84713/original/image-20150611-11421-1scd9kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Statistics don't reflect the real picture of violent crime in the UK.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Research <a href="http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/72273/1/Walby_Towers_Francis_Soc_Review.pdf">has found </a>that the rate of violent crime is 60% higher than official statistics suggest. The Crime Survey for England and Wales is the only source of official statistics on violent crime in the UK. Yet the number of violent crimes published by the Office for National Statistics is capped at five per victim form – even if many more offences were recorded by the survey. </p>
<p>This leads the Office for National Statistics to underestimate the extent of violent crime. When the survey’s cap is removed, and the raw data examined, the number of violent crimes increases by 60%. The amount of violent crimes against women, and the amount of violent crimes by domestic perpetrators, both increase by 70%. </p>
<p>We also found that the cap skews the reported distribution of violent crimes. In particular, the significance of domestic violence and violence against women is diminished by the survey’s limit, since these kinds of offences are often repeated many times against the same victim. Our <a href="http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/72272/1/Research_Briefing_1.pdf">research shows</a> that women are the victim of 45% of violent crimes, and that the majority of perpetrators are known to the victims. Violent crime perpetrated by strangers against men – the conventional understanding of “violent crime” – makes up only 25% of cases. </p>
<p>The Office for National Statistics (ONS) <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/quality/quality-information/crime-and-justice/quality-and-methodology-information-for-crime-in-england-and-wales.pdf">has defended</a> the cap: it says the limit is necessary “to ensure that the estimates are not affected by a very small number of respondents who report an extremely high number of incidents and which are highly variable between survey years”. </p>
<p>This was once a reasonable judgement. But today, the survey’s much larger sample size and the advancement of statistical techniques means that this argument is no longer valid. </p>
<h2>Setting the record straight</h2>
<p>And there is a further problem: the survey collects – but does not publish – information about the gender of the victims of violent crime at the same time as their relationship to the perpetrator. This means that there are no official statistics on the number of violent crimes that are domestic violence against women. </p>
<p>The problem continues throughout the criminal justice system. Domestic violence is invisible in police-recorded crime statistics because there is no legal category (and thus no crime code) for “domestic violence”. Although there are crime codes for “homicide” and “assault”, there is no categorisation of these offences by perpetrator-victim relationship or by the gender of the victim within these police recorded crime statistics. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84718/original/image-20150611-11430-xslcmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flagging files has failed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/artform/3266013003/sizes/l">Artform Canada/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There have been attempts to address this problem: for instance, there was an experiment with “flagging” domestic violence in 43 different police forces. Separate from the main statistical series, police were asked to record whether the incident was “domestic”. But the <a href="http://www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmic/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/improving-the-police-response-to-domestic-abuse.pdf">verdict</a> of HM Inspectorate of Constabulary was that, “in view of the extreme variation in the information provided, it is unlikely that some forces’ data accurately reflects the number of repeat victims”. </p>
<p>Further confusion is caused by the fact that domestic violence is nearly invisible in prosecution and court data. This is because there is no legal category of “domestic violence” – though, again, there is an experiment with “flagging”. A further difficulty is that the Crown Prosecution Service and courts use different units of measurement from the police – counting perpetrators, not crimes – making it hard to identify the success (or otherwise) of the criminal justice system in convicting the perpetrators.</p>
<h2>Room for improvement</h2>
<p>There is clearly scope for improvement across the survey, the police force and the courts. The Crime Survey for England and Wales is one of the best in the world, with an excellent history of innovation. It is time for the survey to remove the cap on the number of crimes that are reported in official statistics, and also to categorise violent crimes by the sex of the victim and the relationship between victim and perpetrator. </p>
<p>The categories for victim-perpetrator relationship and victim gender should be embedded within legal categories and crime codes to ensure a common measurement system throughout the criminal justice system. The police, prosecution and courts should all be required to collect data on the number of crimes, their victims and their perpetrators. There is a precedent for this: the crime of “rape” is differentiated by the gender of the victim, in order to identify male as well as female victims</p>
<p>UK statistics are as good as any in Europe. But the Council of Europe is asking for better statistics from those countries that sign and ratify <a href="http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/standardsetting/convention-violence/about_en.asp">the Istanbul Convention</a> to Combat Violence against Women and Domestic Violence, so some improvement can be anticipated in the future.</p>
<p>By developing a consistent, comprehensive system to measure and analyse domestic violent crime, we will be better able to assess what works (and what doesn’t) in the effort to reduce – and eventually put a stop to – this violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/43087/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvia Walby received funding from ESRC.</span></em></p>Research on the UK’s only source of statistics on violent crime shows that domestic violence and violence against women are massively understated.Sylvia Walby, Distinguished Professor of Sociology and UNESCO Chair in Gender Research, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/402602015-04-27T14:45:21Z2015-04-27T14:45:21ZManifesto Check: Tory plans to tackle police and prison corruption are doomed to fail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78086/original/image-20150415-31660-1rdoc4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservatives pledge to get police in line in bid to improve public confidence</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3045270">Oast House Archive</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Where’s the money coming from?” is the base-beat of this campaign, and the criminal justice section of the <a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/manifesto2015/ConservativeManifesto2015.pdf">Conservative manifesto</a> is accordingly generous with rhetoric, stingy with commitments. It is striking that unlike some earlier elections – notably that which returned New Labour in 1997 – crime and justice have not been given spotlight places. </p>
<h2>Treading carefully</h2>
<p>There has been a substantial fall in estimated crime according to the widely respected <a href="http://www.crimesurvey.co.uk/">Crime Survey</a>, and other issues have largely elbowed crime aside. It is understandable that the incumbents would point to the crime reduction and claim credit. Criminologists would observe that crime has fallen across the advanced economies, and most would acknowledge that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/24/fall-uk-crime-rate-baffles-experts">they can offer only partial explanations</a> for the drop. </p>
<p>When it comes to prison expenditure, all the parties have to tread carefully: it costs <a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130128112038/http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/corporate-reports/noms/annual-report-accounts-2010-11.htm">just short of £40,000 annually for an ordinary prison place</a> for males, and much more for high security and for women. Even the western world’s prison cheerleader – the United States (<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk/06/prisons/html/nn2page1.stm">around 2 million incarcerated in prisons and jails</a>) – has stabilised its numbers and is moving away from trying to build a way out of crime by prison construction.</p>
<h2>Out with the old</h2>
<p>The Conservatives are right to say that money can be saved by closing old and inefficient prisons. This is a truth that has been recognised <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1008259029669">for well over 100 years</a>, since the local gaols were nationalised and scores of expensive, unsanitary and sometimes inhumane institutions shut down. To continue the programme of modernisation is sensible. There will almost certainly be long-term savings from cost efficiencies, arising from lower per capita costs in larger institutions. But there will also be some short and possibly medium-term costs as some old and irremediable prisons are closed, and medium sized institutions upgraded. A much more certain way to effect savings would be to reduce the rate of imprisonment – but it is politically taboo even to whisper this.</p>
<p>Other prison-related claims in the manifesto are vague, or refer to measures already being taken. These include drug-tests in prisons (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/322190/fact-sheet-drug-testing-in-prisons.pdf">now universal</a>), better technology to block mobile phone signals and <a href="https://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/offenders/psipso/psi-2011/psi-67-2011-searching-person.doc">better body-scanning</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives’ “strategy” to tackle corruption in prisons is meaningless: corruption has been the accompaniment of imprisonment since the door was slammed on the first prisoner. It is pernicious and, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/thousands-of-police-accused-of-corruption--just-13-convicted-7786257.html">like police corruption</a>, ineradicable. It must therefore continue to be anticipated, and dealt with.</p>
<p>The home secretary’s hand can be seen in the more impressive proposals on policing, which go some way to offset the manifesto’s uncritical references to “brilliant policemen and women”. <a href="http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/4/744.abstract">Public confidence in the police has fallen</a>, yet politicians have been reluctant to take steps to implement real reform: Theresa May has been a notable exception. The <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/apr/30/theresa-may-reform-police-stop-and-search-powers">closer regulation of stop and search</a> has been one of May’s priorities, and the need for legislation if change is not forthcoming is one of her signature arguments.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/manifesto-check-2015">Manifesto Check</a> deploys academic expertise to scrutinise the parties’ plans.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40260/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seán McConville is a member of the Magistates' Association.</span></em></p>When it comes to crime and justice, the Conservatives don’t convince.Seán McConville, Professor of Law and Public Policy, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.