tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/cyprus-reunification-34797/articlesCyprus reunification – The Conversation2022-11-17T12:37:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940052022-11-17T12:37:03Z2022-11-17T12:37:03ZNorthern Cyprus: Russia opens up direct flights as Putin builds Turkish alliance<p><a href="https://iz.ru/1408067/elnar-bainazarov/vzlet-tronulsia-rf-gotovitsia-zapustit-aviasoobshchenie-s-severnym-kiprom">Russia</a> has announced plans to begin direct flights to Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus, a state recognised only by Turkey. </p>
<p>This will make Russia the only nation outside of Turkey to fly directly to the territory since it declared independence from the Republic of Cyprus in 1983.</p>
<p>Opening up flights to the self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus could well be part of a policy to counter US influence on the island and to enhance Russia’s cooperation with Turkey as part of its alliance building around the Ukraine war. Aeroflot, the <a href="https://en.irna.ir/news/84108431/Russia-to-resume-flights-to-Iran">Russian flag carrier</a>, recently resumed direct flights to Tehran, widely seen as part of moves to build a closer relationship with Iran. </p>
<p><a href="https://greekreporter.com/2022/10/28/russias-stance-cyprus-issue-remains-unchanged/">Some analysts have suggested</a> that Russia’s decision to begin flights to the <a href="https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1838836/">territory</a> in northern Cyprus may also be in response to Greece and the Republic of <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cyprus-is-losing-its-russia-and-confronting-existential-questions-about-its-economy/">Cyprus’s</a> <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/">sanctions</a> against Russia.</p>
<p>Russia claims the new flights are aimed at the 10,000 Russians living in northern Cyprus, and that it remains committed to the UN Security Council resolutions <a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un_documents_type/security-council-resolutions/page/1?ctype=Cyprus&cbtype=cyprus">relating to Cyprus</a>. The UN established a buffer zone in Cyprus that is patrolled by a UN peacekeeping force to protect the ceasefire negotiated after Turkish forces invaded Cyprus in 1974. </p>
<p>However, the move will find favour with Turkey, which Putin sees as an important ally. In October <a href="https://www.kktcb.org/en/historic-call-from-president-of-the-republic-of-turkiye-recep-10228">during a speech</a> at the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Turkish president Recep Erdoğan called on the international community to officially recognise the territory. In November, in another significant step, northern Cyprus was <a href="https://www.t-vine.com/another-step-towards-recognition-as-trnc-accepted-into-the-organization-of-turkic-states/">admitted</a> into the Organization of Turkic States as an observer member, the first international organisation to recognise its constitutional name.</p>
<h2>Russia’s regional ambitions</h2>
<p>Russia started increasing its presence in the eastern Mediterranean in 2013, establishing and maintaining a squadron in the area including the <a href="https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/russias-naval-strategy-mediterranean-0">Black Sea Fleet</a> as well as moving air defences into Crimea. Russia’s strategic objectives were to secure Russia’s southern flanks, which it considers the Mediterranean to be, and to challenge the naval dominance of the US (supported by other Nato countries) in the <a href="https://www.egmontinstitute.be/for-russia-the-ukraine-front-stretches-to-the-mediterranean/">region</a>. Russia’s military involvement in supporting Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was also part of an effort to secure a presence and access to Mediterranean bases and <a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/2021/06/08/russia-s-posture-in-mediterranean-implications-for-nato-and-europe-pub-84670">ports</a>. </p>
<p>Russia uses a narrative of shared cultural and religious heritage, along with the existing anti-US or Eurosceptic sentiment, to try and win support in other regions. Putin references shared cultural and religious traditions with Greece, Cyprus and other Mediterranean countries to build on anti-American sentiments. This type of influencing has not resulted in Greece breaking with Nato <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/28/difficult-balancing-act-russia-s-role-in-eastern-mediterranean-pub-84847">or the EU</a> so far.</p>
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<p>The most important partner for Russia in this region is Turkey. This is a paradoxical relationship because Turkey is a member of Nato, and Russia and Turkey are pursuing contrary objectives in Libya and Ukraine. Russia’s sale of the S-400 missile system to Turkey was a major coup, provoking deep tension between Turkey and Nato and resulting in Turkey losing access to the Patriot missile and the F-35 jet fighter <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/03/25/us-turkey-remain-divided-over-purchase-of-russias-s-400s/">programmes</a>. Turkey’s relationship with Nato was also <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/turkey-gains-much-nato-rocky-road-lies-ahead">rocked</a> when it was the only member to ask for conditions on Nato membership for Finland and Sweden.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-is-building-a-closer-alliance-with-the-worlds-autocracies-the-west-should-beware-190708">Russia is building a closer alliance with the world's autocracies – the west should beware</a>
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<p>Russia had established a relationship with the Republic of Cyprus in the past, which included potential military cooperation, but this seems to have come to an end. In a snub to both Russia and Turkey, the US announced in September 2022 a full lifting of an arms embargo against <a href="https://www.state.gov/lifting-of-defense-trade-restrictions-on-the-republic-of-cyprus-for-fiscal-year-2023/#:%7E:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20this,%2C%20effective%20October%201%2C%202022">Cyprus</a>. </p>
<h2>Flights as symbolism</h2>
<p>The first flights from Russia were set to take place on November 15, which coincided with the 39th anniversary of the northern Cyprus declaration of independence. However, due to technical difficulties, the opening of the new airport and routes have now been <a href="https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/11/13/opening-of-new-airport-in-north-delayed-yet-again/">postponed</a> until early 2023. </p>
<p>The arrival of these flights from Russia is likely to be seen as a political snub by Putin to the Republic of Cyprus and its claims to the whole territory. In March, the Republic of Cyprus <a href="https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/03/13/turkish-cypriot-airspace-what-airspace/">sparked anger</a> from northern Cyprus when it announced the closure of its airspace and that claimed by northern Cyprus. </p>
<p>Currently, people wishing to visit northern Cyprus have to fly via Turkey, or drive to the north from Larnaca or Paphos in the Republic of Cyprus. This has hampered northern Cyprus’ tourism industry. Russian tourists are usually one of the Republic of Cyprus’ <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/07/31/cyprus-feels-the-cost-of-the-russian-tourism-deficit">biggest tourist groups</a> – and for northern Cyprus welcoming tourists from Russia, while the EU and the rest of the island have stopped them arriving, could be an economic boost. </p>
<p>Turkish Cypriots have felt the constraints of living in an unrecognised territory for almost 40 years. The isolation has affected the territory’s economy significantly and prevents Turkish Cypriots from taking part in global sporting, music and cultural events. Pop star Jennifer Lopez, for example, was forced to cancel a concert in northern Cyprus after receiving <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jul/09/jennifer-lopez-cancels-cyprus-gig">furious backlash</a> from Greek Cypriots in 2010. </p>
<p>Extensive international recognition of the territory is unlikely, although <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPh2lGmukH8">Azerbaijan</a> and <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/pakistan-pledges-solidarity-with-turkish-cyprus">Pakistan</a> do seem to be taking steps towards closer ties. </p>
<p>And in October, Adil Karaismailoğlu, Turkey’s transport minister, announced that <a href="https://www.kibrisgenctv.com/kibris/karaismailoglu-kirgizistandan-kktcye-direkt-ucus-talepi-h105512.html">direct flights</a> between northern Cyprus and Kyrgyzstan are being considered. </p>
<p>Northern Cyprus is the latest contender to join a group of <a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-is-building-a-closer-alliance-with-the-worlds-autocracies-the-west-should-beware-190708">outsider nations</a> that Putin has identified as useful, and it may not be the last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russia’s plan to start flights to Northern Cyprus is likely to provoke a reaction from Greece.Ross Bennett-Cook, Visiting Lecturer, PhD, School of Architecture + Cities, University of WestminsterChristoph Bluth, Professor of International Relations and Security, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1019212018-09-03T12:33:05Z2018-09-03T12:33:05ZTime to take the Cyprus question to the people<p>For a while, it seemed as though the long running dispute over the island Cyprus was nearing an end. But the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyprus-talks-keep-failing-maybe-its-time-to-try-something-a-little-different-73158">latest summit</a> between political leaders failed to produce a result. Now, citizens find themselves once again in limbo.</p>
<p>But as close as the process appeared then to be to a mutually agreed settlement, the farther it feels today. Whether the problem is the process itself or the people involved in the talks, it’s clear that political mediation has proven an inadequate mechanism for resolving this dispute, some 40 years after it first broke out.</p>
<p>A former British colony, Cyprus gained its independence in 1960. Within three years intercommunal violence had broken out between the island’s Greek and Turkish Cypriot inhabitants. Turkey’s military intervention in 1974 led to the ethnic partition of the island into a military occupied, ethnically Turkish north and an ethnically Greek south. The UN organised negotiations between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north. But the settlement agreed in those talks was rejected at a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3656753.stm">referendum in 2004</a>. All subsequent efforts to reach an agreement have failed. </p>
<p>But just because this specific mediation design may have failed, it doesn’t necessarily mean that mediation is an overall dead-end mechanism. An emerging tool for conflict resolution called social mediation is still an option. Social mediation has so far been used in smaller-scale community disputes, such as quarrels between neighbours. But with Cyprus standing silent in partition, the time seems ripe to use it in a political setting. </p>
<h2>What is social mediation?</h2>
<p>The practice of <a href="https://www.social-mediation.org/handbook/">social mediation</a> resembles legal and political mediation. It brings together an impartial mediator and the stakeholders involved in a dispute. The mediator leads a facilitated dialogue with the aim of reaching a settlement between the conflicting parties. That might include direct contact between disputants or not. The social mediator engages in the process merely as a facilitator of the exchange between disputants, enabling them to resolve community disputes and restore social bonds.</p>
<p>Critics of the current settlement design for Cyprus, which runs under the prerequisite “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, argue that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyprus-talks-keep-failing-maybe-its-time-to-try-something-a-little-different-73158">all or nothing approach</a> is preventing progress. Any negotiated peace settlement for Cyprus must also be approved through separate referendums within the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities, yet they’ve largely been excluded from the very process that decides their future. This means any proposal that emerges from the talks must surely run a high risk of being rejected at the referendums. </p>
<p>Social mediation would engage these primary stakeholders. They would either agree on a comprehensive settlement or separate components of a settlement if the “all or nothing” approach is abandoned. This would not only make the process more democratic but would also mean people could confront each other directly about difficult issues. </p>
<p>The setting and structure of social mediation sessions could take a variety of forms. Some examples include facilitated consultation sessions involving both Greek and Turkish Cypriot participants, mediated focus groups, or sessions of shuttle mediation – a design that enables communication without direct contact between the parties. Either way, such a process could generate an unprecedented public dialogue in a conflict otherwise in standstill, bringing valuable feedback to the table of negotiators. </p>
<p>The island’s citizens have looked on this process with pessimism for decades. Engaging them and empowering them now can only be seen as a positive step. Social mediation would still involve difficult conversations and controversial views but, in a sense, that’s the point. It would allow members of the general public to openly express their fears and talk about the injustices they have experienced. They, themselves, become the negotiators. The facilitated process of social mediation will also allow participants to hear the other community’s narrative and be exposed to the other’s fears and injustices, and to then practice the challenge of compromise themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101921/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katerina Antoniou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Decades of top-level talks have failed to produce a solution. So why not get citizens involved?Katerina Antoniou, Lecturer in Social Sciences, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/901212018-01-22T09:10:31Z2018-01-22T09:10:31ZCypriot hopes for unification are on life support, but not doomed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202321/original/file-20180117-53317-1j3tmkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The UN buffer zone in Nicosia, Cyprus</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/it/image-photo/dead-zone-nicosia-cyprus-close-view-780729274?src=SVZYflfI01Os5TEodnKTdA-1-2">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just over two decades ago, Sophia and Mehmet met at a North London party. She, originally from Deryneia in the southern part of Cyprus, had just arrived to study at Middlesex University. He, born in Gazimağusa in Northern Cyprus, had joined his uncle’s family in London a little earlier. They almost immediately fell in love with each other. Soon after I met them in June 1997, Sophia told me that falling in love with each other seemed an almost impossible feat. After all, a shared life back in Cyprus would have been fraught with challenges.</p>
<p>At the time, Sophia and Mehmet didn’t realise that back in Cyprus, the distance between the houses they grew up in was just over a mile – that they had on countless occasions watched the very same sunrise while looking for crabs at the same beach, divided only by a fence of barbed wire.</p>
<p>They grew up in two different worlds, where distances were not measured in the same way as elsewhere. Geographical proximity in Cyprus was negated by an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/22/world/cyprus-still-split-by-a-zone-where-time-stands-still.html">impenetrable, frozen border</a>. It had divided their island since 1974, when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/20/newsid_3866000/3866521.stm">Turkey invaded</a> in response to a Greece-backed <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1760565.stm">military coup</a>. </p>
<p>Until <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2969089.stm">border crossing points</a> were opened in 2003, Cypriots had few chances to meet people living on the other part of their island – and their awareness of what was happening there was largely shaped by <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/umut-bozkurt/on-remembering-and-forgetting-reflections-on-long-summer-of-74-in-cy">state propaganda</a>. </p>
<p>For Greek Cypriots, the official narrative focused on the Turkish invasion, with little mention of the campaign by the Greek paramilitary <a href="http://cyprus-mail.com/2016/08/18/former-fm-defends-apology-tcs-atrocities/">EOKA B</a> – an organisation that divided the island for more than a decade before it was officially partitioned by military means. It forced Turkish Cypriots to flee and settle in enclaves in their very own homeland. It ripped communities apart.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202322/original/file-20180117-53299-ebfbe4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barbed wire in Famagusta, Cyprus.</span>
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<p>As far as the Turkish side was concerned, the behaviour of EOKA B legitimised the formation of the paramilitary Turkish Resistance Organisation (TMT), and gave Turkey the opportunity to extend its control over the Turkish Cypriots. Many had sought refuge in the north, afraid of becoming second-class citizens in their own country or even being expelled – just as the <a href="http://openaccess.bilgi.edu.tr:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11411/718/anna%20kouvaraki.pdf?sequence=1i">Cretan Muslims</a> had been a mere 50 years earlier.</p>
<p>The official Turkish Cypriot discourse encouraged by Turkish nationalists capitalised on and institutionalised that fear. It revolved around the systematic commemoration of atrocities by Greek Cypriot nationalists, emphasising the importance of Turkey as the “motherland” upon which Turkish Cypriots had called on for their salvation. And above all, it stifled any calls for coexistence.</p>
<p>In this environment of fear and suspicion, the memory of coexistence, with its positive and fraught moments alike, has faded over time. Older Cypriots passed away without the chance to return to the homes they fled or reconnect with old friends on the other side. Until 2003 “neutral” places outside Cyprus were the only places where Cypriots can meet each other, be exposed to each other’s partial truths and memories, fears and aspirations. They were the only places where they could form bonds of friendship and solidarity.</p>
<h2>Hope springs</h2>
<p>The protracted impasse has apparently worn out the segments of the electorate that previously supported reunification, and talk of full-on partition is no longer taboo in either side of the divide. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/08/turkish-cyprus-set-for-coalition-after-rightwing-party-fails-to-get-majority">Turkish Cypriot parliamentary election</a> of January 7 2018, the north’s nationalist right gathered strength; in the south, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/29/cyprus-presidential-race-begins-as-nine-candidates-submit-bids">rejectionist nationalists</a> who derailed the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/apr/25/cyprus.unitednations">Annan peace plan back in 2004</a>, are gaining appeal in advance of the January 28 presidential vote. </p>
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<span class="caption">The Peace and Freedom Museum in Kyrenia, Northern Cyprus, was established in honour of the soldiers who lost their lives in 1974.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/it/image-photo/kyrenia-cyprus-march-05-2017-museum-596598839?src=x_-Q1sfbT5Y3Zqu6D9KISQ-1-8">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>But Cyprus is small – and its divided states are both weak and vulnerable. The 2013 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/business/international/as-cyprus-recovers-from-banking-crisis-deep-scars-remain.html">banking crisis</a> left deep wounds in the south, exposing its fragile development model> The north, meanwhile, is internationally isolated and heavily dependent on Turkey. Unification, it seems, could only <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/02/24/the-economic-benefits-of-a-reunified-cyprus">benefit the island’s economy</a>, not least by transforming the island’s natural resources from a <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/greece-turkey-tensions-mount-over-plan-to-start-cyprus-gas-drilling/">political flashpoint</a> into a shared source of wealth.</p>
<p>This is not the 1960s. Today, for all its faults, EU membership provides <a href="https://books.google.se/books?id=2kYsuCMRy3AC&pg=PA220&lpg=PA220&dq=Wolfram+Kaiser+and+J%C3%BCrgen+Elvert+(eds.),+European+Union+Enlargement:+A+Comparative+History&source=bl&ots=JZ7Jo3SDfj&sig=_Ej06upTg6PysY5jlS8hQQdpL9c&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj0st">a safer environment</a> in which Cypriots can consolidate peace and accommodate each other’s aspirations and fears. But that doesn’t mean it will be easy, and recent efforts underscore that there’s a long way to go.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202323/original/file-20180117-53307-zchk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Northern Cyprus border.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/it/image-photo/welcome-turkish-republic-northern-cyprus-border-782115616?src=VDrBa8EbClqZ-Vg7lLejDA-1-81">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2017, efforts to achieve a breakthrough were renewed. Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders, the foreign ministers of the <a href="http://www.academia.edu/275001/A_Model_of_Power-Sharing_In_Cyprus_From_the_1959_London-Zurich_Agreements_to_the_Annan_Plan">guarantor powers</a> (Turkish, Greek and British), and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy tried to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyprus-conflict/cyprus-reunification-talks-collapse-u-n-chief-very-sorry-idUSKBN19S02I">resuscitate</a> the UN-sponsored talks on reunification – but while they reached a broad agreement, the devil was in the detail. In the end, the parties reverted to form, flexing their muscles and rehashing the same positions that had led to previous impasses.</p>
<p>With elections on both sides of the border this year, the future of the island is up in the air. But there’s still hope for a different Cyprus, one free of the symbolic and physical violence expressed in the language of “motherlands”. A Cyprus whose citizens, treated as adults, will not need barricades and buffer zones to feel safe; one where crossing streets, forming friendships and falling in love will not require permits from military authorities or approval by communal leaders.</p>
<p>To make this happen, a new Cyprus will have to develop institutions to address fears and mistrust, making armies and intervention clauses redundant. But in the end, once a modus vivendi of some sort is established, it will be up to Cypriots to make their island a common homeland once again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Spyros A. Sofos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Divided by military force for decades, many Cypriots have lost their zeal for unification – but more than a few are still hopeful.Spyros A. Sofos, Researcher, Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/802512017-06-29T15:56:41Z2017-06-29T15:56:41ZAre the Cyprus reunification talks doomed to fail again?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176233/original/file-20170629-2697-t83y92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sentry-post-flags-turkish-republic-northern-648018244">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cypriots’ hopes of a peaceful future for their island once again rest on <a href="http://www.uncyprustalks.org/">UN-brokered talks</a> in Switzerland. But even as the first words are uttered, those hopes already look under threat.</p>
<p>The island gained its independence from Britain in 1960, but has been divided since 1974 when Turkey <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/20/newsid_3866000/3866521.stm">invaded</a> and seized the north in response to a coup designed to reunite Cyprus with Greece. Segregating Turkish Cypriots in the north and Greek Cypriots in the south, much bitterness and bloodshed ensued.</p>
<p>The UN has been a peacekeeping presence on Cyprus for more than half a century, but 43 years after the war, its patience is running out. And with more pressing global situations to attend, it has signalled it will end its peacekeeping mission if these talks fail.</p>
<p>Many have argued that a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/28/a-best-and-last-hope-talks-begin-over-cypriot-reunification">solution</a> to the enduring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/mar/03/cyprus-turkey-eu-uk">Cyprus issue</a> can only emerge from the island itself, not from other countries with vested interests. UN envoy Espen Barth Eide is keen to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/UN.Geneva/videos/1425565550822577/">stress</a> that the talks “have been Cypriot-owned, are Cypriot-owned, and can only be Cypriot-owned”. This language emerged a decade ago when two leftist leaders, Mehmet Ali Talat and Nikos Christofias, came to dominate politics on both sides of the dividing green line between the Turkish and Greek communities.</p>
<p>This Cypriot-owned process aspires to counter the failed 2004 <a href="http://www.open-diplomacy.eu/blog/the-cyprus-dispute-a-failure-of-un-mediation">UN intervention</a>, since which “Cypriot-led, Cypriot-owned” has become the guiding principle of the negotiations.</p>
<h2>Divide and rule</h2>
<p>Cyprus is often described as the epitome of ethnic conflict and a classic deadlock of nationalisms. But these accounts tend to ignore the history of peaceful co-existence of peoples on the island, along with the critical role of <a href="https://www.routledge.com/British-Imperialism-and-Turkish-Nationalism-in-Cyprus-1923-1939-Divide/Xypolia/p/book/9781138221291">imperialism</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176237/original/file-20170629-16075-1ldrfbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyprus has been divided since 1974, with Turkish Cypriots to the north and Greek Cypriots to the south.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/republic-cyprus-vector-map-116847007">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The divide-and-rule policies of British imperialism have been instrumental in institutionalising and exacerbating Cyprus’s competing nationalisms. Scholars who attribute the stalemate to individuals or clashing nationalistic aspirations often rush to raise hopes on the occasions leaders appear committed to reach a solution.</p>
<p>Even when Christofias and Talat were elected (Talat in 2005, and Christofias in 2008) with firm and common commitments to an anti-nationalist cause, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/24/cyprus-reunification-talks">no successful settlement</a> was reached. This illustrates that the deadlock is not simply a product of competing nationalisms or lack of will to reach a comprehensive solution; rather, it is a product of the imperialist framework set up in 1960, which continues to invite foreign powers to intervene in Cypriot affairs.</p>
<h2>Old-school imperialism</h2>
<p>This can be considered a direct legacy from the colonial era and the 1960 settlements. The <a href="http://www.presidency.gov.cy/presidency/presidency.nsf/all/1003AEDD83EED9C7C225756F0023C6AD/$file/CY_Constitution.pdf">1960 constitution</a> granted the Republic of Cyprus a flawed independence. It was based on ethnic division, conferring on three foreign powers – Britain, Greece and Turkey – the right to meddle in Cypriot affairs in pursuit of their own interests.</p>
<p>The old-school imperial <a href="http://peacemaker.un.org/cyprus-greece-turkey-guarantee60">Treaty of Guarantee</a> (1960) provided for these three “guarantor powers” to consult in order to guarantee “the independence, territorial integrity and security of the Republic of Cyprus”. It seems inconceivable that a member of the EU and UN can have its own sovereignty jeopardised by legally allowing foreign countries to intervene in internal affairs, but that’s where Cyprus finds itself.</p>
<p>While Greek Cypriots consider the abolition of the treaty a prerequisite for any solution, the majority of the Turkish Cypriot community wishes to remain under the protection of the Turkish Republic. This genuine mistrust, which stems from the 1970s attacks on Turkish Cypriots by a guerrilla group, the National Organisation of Cypriot Struggle (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/EOKA">EOKA-B</a>), is a major hurdle for reunification.</p>
<p>For several decades, the UN process has aimed at creating a bi-zonal, bi-communal federal state based on political equality. However, many <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/C/bo21632387.html">criticise</a> the irony of proposing a reunification of the island based upon a plan for segregation. </p>
<h2>Renewed commitment</h2>
<p>The renewed Cyprus talks in Switzerland are the culmination of initiatives taken by the island’s two leaders, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Nicos-Anastasiades">Nicos Anastasiades</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.eu/list/politico-28-class-of-2017-ranking/mustafa-akinci/">Mustafa Akinci</a>, based on months of bilateral negotiations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176240/original/file-20170629-16114-2ghj6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nicos Anastasiades, President of the Republic of Cyprus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/thessaloniki-greece-june-15-2017-cypriot-661084564">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both leaders were elected with a mandate to pursue a solution for Cyprus. They appear genuinely committed and have taken full control of the process, meeting nearly every week for the latter part of 2016. These talks have resulted in the current UN-facilitated process in Crans-Montana, and are now seeking a comprehensive settlement. </p>
<p>For more than 40 years, negotiations for reunification have mainly revolved around five issues: territories and the Turkish settlers, property, rights and freedoms, governance, and security. All sides’ positions on these issues have long been entrenched and polarised.</p>
<p>During the latest round of talks, it appears that significant progress in three out of the five issues has been made; the dealbreakers are the issues of governance and security.</p>
<h2>Security matters</h2>
<p>Concerns over governance and power-sharing issues are often framed as problems of viability, or as a risk of effectively allowing Turkey to join the EU. This warning of “back-door EU entry” is often framed in Islamophobic language.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=979&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=979&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=979&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1230&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176241/original/file-20170629-2697-13mk0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1230&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mustafa Akinci, President of the Turkish Cypriots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/search-results/fluid/?q=Mustafa%20Akinci&amber_border=1&category=A,S,E&fields_0=all&fields_1=all&green_border=1&imagesonly=1&orientation=both&red_border=1&words_0=all&words_1=all">PA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>But however difficult and unpopular a compromise might be, this won’t be the issue to destroy the deal. That would be security. Turkey maintains a garrison of around 30,000 troops in the northern third of Cyprus, while Greece has about 1,000 soldiers in the Republic of Cyprus. The ratio of 30,000 troops to the civilian population of the north makes it <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/083fa076-bf91-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf?mhq5j=e1">one of the most militarised areas</a> in the world.</p>
<p>Turkey’s well-established position is that withdrawal is out of the question, since its troops act as a stabilising force. On the other side, Greece <a href="http://www.mfa.gr/en/the-cyprus-issue/">presses</a> for the “the full withdrawal of Turkish occupation forces and the termination of the anachronistic system of guarantees of 1960 as an integral part of an agreed, viable and comprehensive solution of the Cyprus problem”.</p>
<p>None of the parties wants to see the process suspended. But the chances of reaching an agreement approved via referendum in both north and south are slim. The appetite for referenda has greatly shrunk thanks to recent “defeats” across the EU that routed leaders from power.</p>
<p>The fact remains that a system where three guarantor powers are involved in a sovereign state’s independence is a narrow and confining one. For a sovereign country like Cyprus, these hangover arrangements from the past could pose a serious barrier to a more peaceful, reunited future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilia Xypolia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As unity talks begin, history tells us the divisions in Cyprus are not simply the result of two competing nationalisms.Ilia Xypolia, Research fellow, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/731582017-02-17T11:47:27Z2017-02-17T11:47:27ZCyprus talks keep failing – maybe it’s time to try something a little different<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157166/original/image-20170216-12972-1v1z7xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=85%2C198%2C2854%2C1769&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/simiant/149983838/in/photolist-efGYf-dr9KaZ-pp4jym-e5ZXro-v5Fvt-qbTB1s-dr9MGz-dr9LDF-dr9Ups-greYd9-8ccBPW-dr9XDd-GMVUp-dr9TPE-gqY3fE-gr5xLm-qbSTgd-gA9qDq-dr9UAA-fC39xG-dr9MQn-dr9Nb4-FXGnH-dr9MKz-dr9U8S-efHgb-ajK8PX-gr6ckR-dr9MuB-dr9XJm-gqYabo-gr6aNk-gA9SRf-gqZa7W-FXV7r-dr9Xo7-dr9JtF-cWDch-okMiX3-dr9Kfx-v5FPq-dr9UMJ-gA9FxR-fBM1AM-dr9Mqi-gr6Kkv-v5FEa-dr9VCY-7BV2q7-dr9Jit">Nathan Williams</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Negotiations on settling the international dispute over Cyprus have hit a wall – yet again. For months, the latest round of reunification talks have been touted as a real chance to finally seal a deal, even though people close to the discussions repeatedly reported that very little had been agreed.</p>
<p>In January, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/q-a-the-cyprus-reunification-talks-71035">high-level conference</a> in Geneva engaged Greece, Turkey and the UK as guarantor powers, but those discussions lasted less than a day because there was so little on which to build. The Cypriot leaders returned to the island with the promise to continue their efforts, but there has been a palpable deflation of public interest.</p>
<p>When the Republic of Cyprus parliament recently passed a proposal by neo-Nazi party ELAM to commemorate in schools the 1950 Greek Cypriot plebiscite for union with Greece, the Turkish Cypriot <a href="http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_47_-14-february-2017_-press-release-regarding-the-decision-by-the-greek-cypriot-parliament-to-introduce-a-commemoration-in-schools-of-the-1950-plebiscite-on-_enosis_.en.mfa">reaction</a> was swift and uniformly negative. It was little surprise that tensions erupted at the negotiating table, with each side claiming the other walked away. Those Cypriots who had clung to hope even after Geneva are lamenting on social media that the “hardliners” have won, as the two sides are pushed farther apart by extreme positions in their own communities.</p>
<p>The irony is that until this disagreement, the two current Cypriot leaders had been lauded in local and international media as the most willing to compromise for years. They seemed to be the leaders most committed to peace.</p>
<h2>All or nothing means nothing</h2>
<p>I warned <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/04/27/the-victory-of-mustafa-akinci-in-northern-cyprus-gives-hope-to-turkish-cypriots-of-a-better-future/">more than a year ago</a> against believing Mustafa Akıncı’s election as Turkish Cypriot leader represented a done deal for reunification. What Akıncı and Greek Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades discovered at the negotiating table is what so many before them have learned: that “all or nothing” solutions tend to produce nothing.</p>
<p>Over the years, the United Nations and world leaders have spent countless hours and untold amounts of money coaxing and advising Cypriot leaders, believing the only solution to the Cyprus division would be a comprehensive one. They’ve shuttled the Cypriots to retreats in Switzerland, and made flying visits to the island to show support. And in all these talks, great attention has been paid to the goodwill – or otherwise – of the leaders. The idea seems to be that if they can merrily eat and drink together, a plan will magically materialise that will comprehensively resolve all the problems of security, guarantees, territory, property and political equality.</p>
<p>For a couple of decades, Cypriots have been told that each round of negotiations is “the last chance”. This time it may very well be true. At least, it may very well be the last chance for a comprehensive solution, but that does not mean it has to be the last chance for a negotiated settlement.</p>
<p>It’s time to abandon the fetish of the comprehensive solution – an idea that has acquired almost mystical qualities as the one and only way to resolve the Cyprus divide. Instead, it is time to think about how to negotiate a step-by-step solution, one that will give a roadmap for a peace that is transformative and sustainable.</p>
<h2>A dated vision</h2>
<p>The fixation on a comprehensive solution perhaps made sense when the ceasefire line dividing the island was closed and Cypriots from each side were unable to encounter each other on the island. But the easing of movement restrictions in 2003 produced transformations that were political, social – even psychological. People began to interact and learn, or relearn, each others’ languages. A bi-communal civil society initiative brought together families of missing people to demand information about their loved ones. A bi-communal heritage committee has restored churches and mosques on both sides of the island. <a href="http://www.maronitesofcyprus.com/cgibin/hweb3e95.html">Maronite Cypriots</a> began to return to their villages in the north. These transformations, while slow, have shifted the ground of the conflict, even as the format envisioned for resolving it has remained the same.</p>
<p>It is time to learn from this momentum of transformation and to envision <a href="http://tesev.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Negotiating_The_Cyprus_Problems_EN.pdf">concrete steps</a> that can be taken tomorrow, and the next day, to further transform the island and lead it closer to peace.</p>
<p>The opening of the closed city of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25496729">Varosha</a> in the north of the island and the creation of institutions that support political and economic cooperation and interdependence are two such steps. Acceleration of mechanisms to return or compensate people for the loss of their property would be another. Some may be unilateral steps, such as opening closed Maronite villages in the island’s north to allow resettlement. Others may be negotiated steps, such as exchanging information about and immediately compensating the owners of those properties that have been irrevocably developed or expropriated for public works, such as airports and hospitals. Indeed, there is much to be done, step by step, in ways that allow Cypriots to control the incremental changes that are already transforming their lives.</p>
<p>Until now, anything that is not a comprehensive solution has been seen as a “confidence-building measure” – an ad-hoc attempt to create an environment for peace. But these steps don’t have to be ad-hoc. They may be an integral part of a step-by-step plan with the larger goal of integrating the two sides of the island and creating forms of social and economic interdependence that will make political unification inevitable.</p>
<p>It is time to move beyond the fetish of the comprehensive solution and negotiate concrete steps that will transform Cyprus in ways that will sustain the hope we are now in danger of losing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Bryant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Another ‘last chance’ has been missed. But while talks disintegrate, islanders are just getting on with peace in practice.Rebecca Bryant, Associate Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/710352017-01-12T10:42:38Z2017-01-12T10:42:38ZQ+A: the Cyprus reunification talks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152239/original/image-20170110-29012-1pjjk4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/helgatawil/6076277237/in/photolist-afWvwD-qdUCo6-qTf82D-raHsZR-qdG1Qs-raHfQF-qdFYJU-rayPxi-rayyfp-raBVWA-raBMy3-qdUjB4-qT9kDq-r8pWhq-qTfuSH-6Tb4Q-pPweB-rayNWD-qdGHg7-qdG76s-qdGjJU-qThmMP-7sQ94U-qTf6H6-raHipt-raBwCb-ray3yR-raHteD-raHgnH-raBA2L-ray4VZ-rayPbg-qdGiJh-r8pW1y-r8pRju-dMfTCR-qThEkz-rayoct-qT9yh1-qTgZ3X-rayLna-qT9mP1-qdUZBP-qT8ZmG-qT8rQd-r8qiKq-qdUigP-qdGkM5-qT8t8U-qdUfLD">helga tawil souri</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are seeking to resolve a decades-long dispute about the governance of Cyprus in talks happening in Geneva, Switzerland. The island remains divided by a United Nations buffer zone, established to end the conflict between the two sides. But although fighting ceased in 1974, a permanent agreement on how Cyprus should be governed has never been reached. There are several very big questions to answer before that can happen. </p>
<h2>What is the main topic of discussion?</h2>
<p>Right now, everything is on the table. The first two days of talks between the two Cypriot leaders are intended to lead to a high-level conference with representatives from Greece, Turkey, and the UK.</p>
<p>The original <a href="http://peacemaker.un.org/cyprus-nicosia-treaty60">treaties</a> establishing the Republic of Cyprus in 1960 made the two kinstates and the UK guarantors of the new country’s independence.</p>
<p>Among other matters, they will discuss territory – specifically the amount of land that would be allocated to each constituent state in a new federation. This is an issue that concerns the UK because of the sovereign bases that it retained in the island after Cyprus ceased to be a British colony. That land currently amounts to almost 3% of the island.</p>
<h2>What led Cyprus to be divided in the first place?</h2>
<p>Conflict began during the period of British rule in the 1950s. A Greek Cypriot anti-colonial movement emerged, aiming to unite the island with Greece. The Turkish Cypriot minority consequently agitated against this movement and drew Turkey into the dispute. When Greek Cypriots took up arms to achieve their goal, Turkish Cypriots organised their own guerrilla movement with military aid from Turkey.</p>
<p>The conflict of the late 1950s resulted in an independent Republic of Cyprus with a power-sharing constitution. But many Greek Cypriot leaders found the system unwieldy and wanted change. Violence erupted again in 1963, when the republic broke down and Turkish Cypriots retreated to armed enclaves that were put under military siege.</p>
<p>Although tensions eased in 1968, a second Greek Cypriot guerrilla organisation, disappointed with the failure to unite with the “motherland”, briefly seized power in 1974 in a coup d’etat, which was supported by the junta government in Greece. Turkey used its status as a guarantor power to militarily intervene. The ceasefire line at which the Turkish military’s advance stopped has divided the island since.</p>
<h2>What is the current governance system in Cyprus?</h2>
<p>The events of 1974 and afterwards displaced around 150,000 Greek Cypriots from the island’s north and around 45,000 Turkish Cypriots from the south. This resulted in a de facto ethnic homogenisation of the island’s two sides. The Republic of Cyprus government, under Greek Cypriot control, became the recognised government for the entire island. Only Turkey recognises the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.</p>
<p>In practice, this means, for instance, that technically the entire island became part of the EU when the republic gained membership in 2004, but EU law is suspended in the north. Turkish Cypriots can have EU citizenship while living in the north, even though it’s essentially outside the EU. Meanwhile Greek Cypriots live in an EU member state but do not have control over 36% of their territory and cannot exercise rights of movement and settlement there.</p>
<h2>How has Cyprus been affected by the stalemate?</h2>
<p>Nicosia is Europe’s last divided capital, with streets that deadened at sandbags or lead to checkpoints. In the south, the economy relies on package tourism and, until 2013, the financial sector. The north is isolated, with close economic, political, and social ties to Turkey. Turkish Cypriots often express a sense of being in limbo, affected by globalisation but still cut off from the world.</p>
<h2>What is the general mood on the ground today?</h2>
<p>The general mood seems to be subdued optimism. Cypriots have lived through the ups and downs of several decades of negotiations, most of which have been labelled the “last chance for peace”. Many were participants in the most important “last chance” in 2004, when Greek Cypriots rejected a UN-sponsored reunification plan in a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3656753.stm">referendum</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/mar/25/cyprus-bailout-deal-at-a-glance">2013 financial crisis</a> in the republic triggered a change of heart in the island’s south and a more positive approach to a federal solution.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152245/original/image-20170110-29028-1w4wp5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci at the talks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the discovery of gas reserves off the Cyprus coast have had a contradictory effect on the mood. Gas reserves would be best exploited in a united Cyprus, but there is Greek Cypriot concern about Turkish interests.</p>
<p>Conflict and crises in the region have lately led to renewed international interest and incentives for solving the Cyprus problem – although the current chaos in Turkey is an obstacle.</p>
<h2>What might governance look like after reunification?</h2>
<p>The idea is for Cyprus to become a federation of two ethnically defined states, but we do not know yet if there will be a strong or a weak central government. We also don’t know what competencies will fall to the constituent states, and which ones to the central government, or what rights the citizens of each constituent state will have in the other.</p>
<p>One option still under discussion is a potential rotating presidency, with the rotation again defined along ethnic lines. Turkish Cypriots are very much in favour of such a system, but Greek Cypriots, who make up 80% of the population, overwhelmingly reject it. Similar power-sharing mechanisms, based on community rights, were what got the Republic of Cyprus into trouble in 1963.</p>
<h2>What else is under discussion?</h2>
<p>Even more than governance, the issues that concern most Cypriots are property and territory. These remain the biggest sticking points.</p>
<p>In 1974, displaced Cypriots constituted about one third of the island’s population. Today, their children and grandchildren think of the possibility of claiming and even returning to the properties they left behind on the “other side”.</p>
<p>Any plan will include some territorial readjustment, meaning that the constituent state in the north will cede territory to the south, allowing the return of Greek Cypriots to their homes. But in 1974 Greek Cypriot properties in the north were distributed to displaced Turkish Cypriots, so giving them back will displace their current inhabitants yet again.</p>
<p>How reunification will look for ordinary people will depend a lot on how many people return to their houses and how much remixing there will be. If very few people return and if territorial readjustment is limited, reunification will look a lot like the island does now, but without borders.</p>
<h2>What are the chances of success in these talks?</h2>
<p>Slim in this round. Although the Cypriot leaders have demonstrated goodwill and the capacity for cooperation, they entered this intensive round of talks with very little already agreed, even after 18 months of negotiations. All we have right now is their agreement that they want to agree.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Bryant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The island’s leaders are meeting in Geneva to discuss the prospect of reunification. Here’s what is on the negotiating table.Rebecca Bryant, Associate Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.