tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/drought-390/articlesDrought – The Conversation2024-03-20T21:24:09Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229412024-03-20T21:24:09Z2024-03-20T21:24:09ZWater woes in southern Alberta could spell disaster for aquatic ecosystems, and the people who rely on them<p>Freshwater will be an increasingly scarce resource as we head into spring and summer in Western Canada with implications for the livelihoods and economic prosperity of humans, and non-humans alike, in southern Alberta and the downstream Prairie provinces. </p>
<p>The Bow River — in addition to the Oldman and South-Saskatchewan sub-basins — play a vital role in Western Canada. These rivers also have <a href="https://albertawater.com/water-licences-transfers-and-allocation/">a large number of competing uses</a> including agricultural and irrigation needs, municipal uses, hydroelectric developments, industrial consumption and <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/after-the-flood">recreational and cultural uses</a> — including a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/rainbow-trout-bow-river-1.4921565">world-class sports fishery</a>. </p>
<p>The Rocky Mountains serve as Western Canada’s water towers and are the critical source of the snowpack which plays a major role in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/groundwater-recharge">groundwater recharge</a>. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020">diminishing winter snowpack</a>, combined with increasing frequencies of <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor">multi-year droughts in the Prairies</a> from below-average regional precipitation, is setting up the summer of 2024 as another year of <a href="https://www.aer.ca/regulating-development/rules-and-directives/bulletins/bulletin-2023-43">abnormally low volumes</a> of water flowing through the basin.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-report-shows-alarming-changes-in-the-entire-global-water-cycle-197535">New report shows alarming changes in the entire global water cycle</a>
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<p>Make no mistake, dwindling flows will have wide reaching social, environmental and economic impacts. Governments and policymakers must act quickly to avert a larger crisis.</p>
<h2>Compounding impacts</h2>
<p>In addition to impacting the water available for human use, low flows and water levels have direct and indirect impacts on the <a href="https://trivent-publishing.eu/books/engineeringandindustry/watershedandriverbasinmanagement/11.%20C.%20W.%20Koning%20et%20al..pdf">organisms that live in and rely on the aquatic ecosystem</a>. Limited water supplies raise serious concerns about the <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/commentary/doc/2006CanLIIDocs562#!fragment/zoupio-_Toc2Page1-Page10/BQCwhgziBcwMYgK4DsDWszIQewE4BUBTADwBdoAvbRABwEtsBaAfX2zgCYAFMAc0ICMjHvwEAGAJQAaZNlKEIARUSFcAT2gByTVIiEwuBMtUbtu-YZABlPKQBCGgEoBRADLOAagEEAcgGFnKVIwACNoUnYJCSA">long-term impacts on our aquatic ecosystems</a>.</p>
<p>Complicating matters is the <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/albertas-water-priority-system-tools-for-water-licence-holders">“first in time, first in right” (FITFIR) water governance</a> principle which emerged out of the Western United States and is essentially a first come, first served system of water allocation. To make matters worse, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3501079">new applications for water access have been closed since 2006</a>, a decision which will have a “significant effect on water supply strategies available to municipal water users, as many communities currently hold water licences that are not adequate for their projected growth.” </p>
<p>In <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/0778546209">2006 the government of Alberta</a> acknowledged that “the limits for water allocations have been reached or exceeded in the Bow, Oldman and South Saskatchewan River sub basins.” In the South Saskatchewan Basin, most of the water is allocated to a handful of license holders who have had licenses for high volumes of water for years. This is a substantial hurdle to overcome when trying to retain river water for aquatic ecosystems — a goal <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/er-2022-0126">often referred to as environmental flows or “e-flows”</a>.</p>
<p>Without substantial changes to the licensing program, aquatic ecosystem health will continue to be secondary to existing license holder uses. </p>
<p>Further complicating the matter is that allocations are looked at <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/62f582febb0b3104adabb617/t/6358b7a0bf6485031a91dc36/1666758567761/Final+Report+-+Review+of+the+Implementation+of+the+Approved+WMP+for+the+SSRB.pdf">annually and not seasonally</a>. This means that the system can’t adapt “on the fly” when low flows hit, unless there are specific government directives implemented to that effect. This is also true of current monitoring and reporting efforts across the country, with reporting and interpretation of data being done only after an <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/business/energy/survey-finds-oilsands-environmental-monitoring-ineffective-after-10-years">issue has occurred, if at all</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps most egregiously, the FITFIR approach has also long been criticized by Indigenous groups as disproportionately impacting their water rights and <a href="https://www.watercanada.net/feature/three-out-of-ten-odds-of-a-solution-to-first-nation-water-rights-in-alberta/">limiting water supplies in favour of competing industry and large agricultural needs</a>.</p>
<h2>Low-level impacts</h2>
<p>Alberta’s water regulations are generally not helping matters. Currently, regulations around pollution release are predominantly applied at the end-of-pipe, not throughout the river, meaning the impacts on the river will vary based on how much water is present. This often results <a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/wqrj.2019.033">in poor water quality events occurring in the summer,</a> when flow is lowest and the pollutants are less diluted. This has direct consequences on aquatic food webs and those that rely upon the river, especially in areas downstream of major sources of pollution.</p>
<p>Lower river flows and levels can result in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.11.010">increased water temperatures and</a> decreased oxygen availability for aquatic organisms. This can have harmful consequences on sensitive species like fish and their invertebrate food sources. The projected low flows in 2024 will likely lead to increased fish mortality.</p>
<p>There are numerous habitats around rivers that rely on certain levels of flow to be present for survival. Riparian areas (river banks) along the river run the risk of drying up and dying off if flow isn’t <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-020-01392-4">adequate</a>. While seasonal fluctuations in water levels are normal, the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/what-low-water-levels-in-edmonton-could-mean-for-fish-this-winter-1.7028203">uncharacteristically low flows this past fall and winter</a>, combined with expected lower water levels in the coming year may mean that these sensitive habitats are isolated for extended periods of time — not receiving the water and nutrients required for their survival.</p>
<p>The impacts aren’t restricted to organisms living directly in and around rivers in the region either. Low water flows affect the entire food web <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02705060.2023.2203728">from aquatic insects to apex predators</a> and with fewer prey available, larger fish populations may decline. These impacts also will only grow downstream as cumulative pressures on the river increase.</p>
<p>While rivers have seasonal flow patterns, low water flow isn’t just a seasonal issue. Climate change projections have been predicting more <a href="https://albertawater.com/climate-change-in-the-bow-basin/">frequent and severe droughts</a>, which will only exacerbate this issue.</p>
<h2>Preventing drought?</h2>
<p>2024 is likely the first of a series of years where we will see reduced snowpack, altered precipitation timing (and amounts) and increased water use pressures all combining to reduce river flows. </p>
<p>We have seen an initial reaction by <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=8971229900128-9793-C959-193E503D6C61CAD4">the provincial government</a> in Alberta; however, there has been a noticeable lack of acknowledgement from many governments and regulatory bodies across the country. This is a national issue and will be an ongoing issue as a result of climate change. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/02/19/Alberta-Brutal-Water-Reckoning/">tension between different water users has been predicted for over a decade</a>. Policy options to date have been limited and have lacked the inclusion of ecosystem-related considerations. There <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-parched-alberta-negotiating-with-water-holders-to-strike-share/">also has been discussion</a> around <a href="https://prism.ucalgary.ca/server/api/core/bitstreams/596932e4-12f8-46d6-90f6-7512479be965/content">increasing the allowance</a> of water which can be moved between basins. However, such systems could have major implications on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.1891">aquatic ecosystem health if utilized widely and must be done with great care.</a></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/johannesburgs-water-crisis-is-getting-worse-expert-explains-why-the-taps-keep-running-dry-in-south-africas-biggest-city-223926">Johannesburg's water crisis is getting worse – expert explains why the taps keep running dry in South Africa's biggest city</a>
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<p>As we move through what will be an unprecedented low water year, it will be critical that policymakers, regulators and all Canadians understand the far-reaching impacts. </p>
<p>Our existing approaches aren’t working. We must look beyond our current systems. This includes utilizing the knowledge of water quality experts as well as Indigenous Peoples who have relied on the river for centuries. </p>
<p>The management issue presenting itself is extremely complex and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2016.1238345">will require equally complex responses with input from all concerned parties</a>. But the costs of failure will be far greater than the costs of action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Barrett receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada and is involved in research projects in southern Alberta funded by the City of Calgary, Alberta Innovates, and the NSERC Alliance Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Black receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and is involved in research projects in southern Alberta funded by the City of Calgary, Alberta Innovates, and the NSERC Alliance Program.</span></em></p>Declining precipitation, climate change and governance failures will drive water flow scarcity in 2024 with serious implications across Western Canada.David Barrett, Research Associate, Faculty of Science, University of CalgaryKerry Black, Assistant Professor and Canada Research Chair, Integrated Knowledge, Engineering and Sustainable Communities, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259882024-03-20T14:18:51Z2024-03-20T14:18:51ZDehydration: how it happens, what to watch out for, what steps to take<p><em><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33636649/">Dehydration</a> is a big issue during unusually <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyas-had-unusually-hot-weather-an-expert-unpacks-what-could-be-causing-it-224348">hot weather</a> and outbreaks of diseases such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-the-worldwide-shortage-of-cholera-vaccines-for-starters-theyre-only-made-by-one-company-224891">cholera</a> that lead to life-threatening diarrhoea. Anastasia Ugwuanyi is a family physician and clinical educator at the University of the Witwatersrand. We asked her four questions designed to be useful in avoiding or managing dehydration.</em></p>
<h2>What causes dehydration?</h2>
<p>Dehydration can be defined as loss of intracellular body water. To understand the causes it’s important to set out some basic information about our bodies in relation to water physiology. Water contributes 55% to 65% of total body mass. Most of this is in <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/body-water-percentage#body-water-charts">lean tissue</a>. The other third is extracellular.</p>
<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18519109/">Dehydration</a> can be either water loss or salt and water loss. The body’s “water ecosystem” is regulated by responses to salt and water levels. Organs such as the brain, skin, gastrointestinal tract and kidneys are involved in water regulation.</p>
<p>Water in the body ecosystem is useful to maintain certain functions. These include:</p>
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<li><p>transporting nutrient, biological and chemical materials around</p></li>
<li><p>part of the support system in joints, including the spine</p></li>
<li><p>an environment for the normal chemical processes of the body to function.</p></li>
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<p>Dehydration can be caused by several factors that tilt the regulatory mechanisms to a water loss mode. These can include:</p>
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<li><p>environmental or external causes such as heat waves (climate change factors) </p></li>
<li><p>droughts and long-standing water deprivation</p></li>
<li><p>reduced fluid intake – in elderly people, children or people with certain mental health challenges</p></li>
<li><p>municipal shortages affecting availability or access to potable drinking water</p></li>
<li><p>increased fluid loss through urinating excessively such as in conditions like diabetes</p></li>
<li><p>increased loss of fluids from diarrhoea</p></li>
<li><p>increased loss of fluids from sweating or hyperventilating.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>How do you know if you’re dehydrated?</h2>
<p>Shifts of between 5% and 10% loss of body water are symptomatic especially among very old and very young people. Signs to look out for include: headaches, fatigue or lassitude, confusion that cannot be immediately explained, a dry mouth (not immediately explainable), skin that’s dry when you pinch it and sluggish in the normal elastic return, sunken eyes and in infants sunken fontanelles, no tears when crying particularly in children, concentrated urine – deep amber to dark, and decreased frequency of urination as the body switches to conservation.</p>
<p>Other signs to watch out for include <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/warning.html#text">heat exhaustion symptoms</a>. These indicate that the cardiovascular system is taking a hit. Here the signs can include: cold, clammy skin; unusually heavy sweating; weak, fast pulse; dizziness; muscle cramps; nausea. </p>
<h2>What happens to your body when you’re dehydrated?</h2>
<p>Several of our body’s systems are affected by dehydration. Effects of dehydration depend on the amount of loss, and for how long one has been dehydrated.</p>
<p>What happens is also a function of the level of dehydration. <a href="https://www.msdmanuals.com/professional/pediatrics/dehydration-and-fluid-therapy-in-children/dehydration-in-children">Dehydration is classified from mild to severe depending on the percentage body weight of water lost</a>. In children and infants it’s particularly problematic because water makes up a bigger part of their body mass. </p>
<p>With a significant loss, symptoms include a drop in blood pressure that affects circulation dynamics and signs of decompensation – systems not being able to cope (think of an overheating car engine).</p>
<p>The cardiovascular system, gastro-intestinal system, renal system, central nervous system, skin and outer layer of your body, musculoskeletal system, are all adversely affected by dehydration depending on the level of total body water lost.</p>
<p>The effects of dehydration on the body can include: weight loss, constipation, delirium, renal failure, greater propensity for respiratory infections and urinary infections, hearts attacks and seizures <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16248421/#:%7E:text=Dehydration%2C%20which%20increases%20blood%20viscosity,cause%20an%20increase%20in%20viscosity.">as a result of blood thickening</a></p>
<p>These effects are all more debilitating in very old people and those with existing conditions like diabetes.</p>
<h2>How can you stop dehydration?</h2>
<p>To stop dehydration, it is important to consider every aspect of water demand and supply.</p>
<p>Environmental: Access to potable water supply always is a collective responsibility of government and the community. This can range from reporting and repairing municipality water supply leaks and breaks, to maintaining the water purification and supply distribution networks.</p>
<p>Personal: Don’t wait until you are thirsty before you drink. Thirst is your body saying you are becoming dehydrated. For every kilogram of body weight, drink about 30-35 millilitres (3 tablespoons) of water daily, especially in hot weather. </p>
<p>Be mindful of the signs of dehydration in yourself, or in the elderly, children, or incapacitated family or friends. Check that with simple steps such as <a href="https://www.rehydrate.org/ors/made-at-home.htm">replacement therapies</a> made up of water, salt and sugar. </p>
<p>Be deliberate about drinking more water during physical activity, and when ill. Every home has salt, sugar and water. Knowing how to make this or having the prepackaged oral rehydration therapy at home is essential. There are a number of good guides to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/pdf/global/posters/11_229310-j_ors_print-africa.pdf">making homemade salt-sugar-water solution </a> for treating dehydration before seeking medical help.</p>
<p>Create a habit of drinking water intentionally as opposed to cold drinks and beers that have water but are high in calories. These worsen dehydration.</p>
<p>Make sure you have extra fluids before, during and after exercise to maintain the right balance of water and salts during exercise.</p>
<p>Keep cool in hot weather by wearing breathable clothes, taking a swim or cooling showers if there are no water restrictions. Water jets are available in some public places to help with cooling during particularly hot weather.</p>
<p>Lastly, there are several smart devices with health apps that can assist with tracking water intake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anastasia Ugwuanyi belongs to the South African Association of Family Physicians.</span></em></p>About 60% of the human body is made up of water. Excessive water loss can be fatal.Anastasia Ugwuanyi, Senior clinical educator, department of family medicine, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2185452024-03-11T10:04:45Z2024-03-11T10:04:45ZEast Africa must prepare for more extreme rainfall during the short rainy season – new study<p>East Africa has recently had an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150712/worst-drought-on-record-parches-horn-of-africa">unprecedented series of failed rains</a>. But some rainy seasons are bringing the opposite: huge amounts of rainfall. </p>
<p>In the last few months of 2023, the rainy season, known as the “short rains”, was much wetter than normal. It brought severe flooding to Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania. In Somalia, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1144202">more than</a> 2 million people were affected, with over 100 killed and 750,000 displaced from their homes. Tens of thousands of people in northern Kenya <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/12/15/floods-have-washed-away-entire-villages-kenyas-rains-made-twice-as-intense-by-climate-chan">lost</a> livestock, farmland and homes. </p>
<p>The very wet short rainy seasons are linked to a climate event known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (known as the “IOD”). And climate model projections <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00943-1">show an increasing trend</a> of extreme Indian Ocean dipoles. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105258">new research paper</a>, we set out to investigate what effect more frequent extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events would have on rainfall in east Africa. We did this using a large number of climate simulations and models.</p>
<p>Our results show that they increase the likelihood of very wet days – therefore making very wet seasons. </p>
<p>This could lead to extreme weather events, even more extreme than the floods of 1997, which led to <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/w7832e/w7832e00.htm">10 million people requiring emergency assistance</a>, or those of 2019, when <a href="https://fews.net/east-africa/special-report/january-2020">hundreds of thousands were displaced</a>.</p>
<p>We recommend that decision-makers plan for this kind of extreme rainfall, and the resulting devastating floods.</p>
<h2>How the Indian Ocean Dipole works</h2>
<p>Indian Ocean Dipole events tend to occur in the second half of the year, and can last for months. They have two phases: positive and negative. </p>
<p>Positive events occur when the temperature of the sea surface in the western Indian Ocean is warmer than normal and the temperature in the eastern Indian Ocean is cooler than normal. Put simply, this temperature difference <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/43854">happens when</a> winds move warmer water away from the ocean surface in the eastern region, allowing cooler water to rise. </p>
<p>In the warmer western Indian Ocean, more heated air will rise, along with water vapour. This forms clouds, bringing rain. Meanwhile, the eastern part of the Indian Ocean will be cooler and drier. This is why flooding in east Africa can happen at the same time as <a href="https://theconversation.com/indian-ocean-linked-to-bushfires-and-drought-in-australia-20893">bushfires in Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The opposite is true for negative dipole events: drier in the western Indian Ocean and wetter in the east. </p>
<p>Under climate change we’re expecting to see more frequent and more extreme positive dipole events – bigger differences between east and west. This is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-climate-change-will-cause-more-strong-indian-ocean-dipole-events/">shown by climate model projections</a>. They are believed to be driven by different paces of warming across the tropical Indian Ocean – with western and northern regions projected to warm faster than eastern parts.</p>
<p>Often heavy rain seasons in east Africa are attributed to El Niño, but <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1015">recent research</a> has shown that the direct impact of El Niño on east African rainfall is actually relatively modest. El Niño’s principal influence lies in its capacity to bring about positive dipole events. This occurs since El Niño events tend to cool the water in the western Pacific Ocean – around Indonesia – which also helps to cool down the water in the eastern Indian Ocean. These cooler temperatures then help kick-start a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.</p>
<h2>Examining unprecedented events</h2>
<p>Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events are rare in the recent climate record. So to examine their potential impacts on rainfall extremes, we used a large set of climate simulations. The data allowed us to diagnose the sensitivity of rainfall to larger Indian Ocean Dipole events in a statistically robust way.</p>
<p>Our results show that as positive dipole events become more extreme, more wet days during the short rains season can be expected. This effect was found to be largest for the frequency of extremely wet days. Additionally, we found that as the dipole strength increases, the influence on the most extreme days becomes even larger. This means that dipole events which are even slightly “record-breaking” could lead to unprecedented levels of seasonal rainfall. </p>
<p>Ultimately, if positive Indian Ocean Dipole seasons increase in frequency, as predicted, regular seasons of flooding impacts will become a new normal.</p>
<p>One aspect not included in our analysis is the influence of a warmer atmosphere on rainfall extremes. A warmer atmosphere <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall/">holds more moisture</a>, allowing for the development of more intense rain storms. This effect could combine with the influence of extreme positive dipoles to bring unprecedented levels of rainfall to the Horn of Africa. </p>
<p>2023 was <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record">a year of record-breaking temperatures driven both by El Niño and global warming</a>. We might expect that this warmer air could have intensified rain storms during the season. Indeed, evidence from <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-indian-ocean-dipole-compounding-natural-hazards-and-high-vulnerability-increased-severity-of-flooding-in-the-horn-of-africa/">a recent assessment</a> suggests that climate change-driven warming is highly likely responsible for increased rainfall totals. </p>
<h2>Responding to an unprecedented future</h2>
<p>Policymakers need to plan for this. </p>
<p>In the long term it is crucial to ensure that any new infrastructure is robust to withstand more frequent and heavier rains, and that government, development and humanitarian actors have the capacity to respond to the challenges.</p>
<p>Better use of technology, such as innovations in <a href="https://fastaweather.com/">disseminating satellite rainfall monitoring via mobile phones</a>, can communicate immediate risk. <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/ai-churns-out-lightning-fast-forecasts-good-weather-agencies">New frontiers in AI-based weather prediction</a> could improve the ability to anticipate localised rain storms, including <a href="https://www.wfp.org/publications/2023-machine-learning-early-warning-systems">initiatives focusing on eastern Africa</a> specifically. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g_06jBU-ag">Linking rainfall information with hydrological models designed for dryland environments</a> is also essential. These will help to translate weather forecasts into impact forecasts, such as identifying risks of flash flooding down normally dry channels or bank overflow of key rivers in drylands.</p>
<p>These technological improvements are crucial. But better use of the forecast information we already have can also make a big difference. For instance, initiatives like <a href="https://www.climatecentre.org/priority_areas/fbf-ibf/">“forecast-based financing”</a>, pioneered by the Red Cross Red Crescent movement, link forecast triggers to pre-approved financing and predefined action plans, helping communities protect themselves before hazards have even started.</p>
<p>For these endeavours to succeed, there must be dialogue between the science and practitioner communities. The scientific community can work with practitioners to integrate key insights into decisions, while practitioners can help to ensure research efforts target critical needs. With this, we can effectively build resilience to natural hazards and resist the increasing risks of our changing climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik W. Kolstad receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme through the CONFER project (grant 869730)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katerina Michaelides receives funding from EU H2020, the FCDO and the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Singer receives funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David MacLeod does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Projections show that there’ll be Indian Ocean dipoles in the future – and that means more rainy days, and more extreme rainfall.David MacLeod, Lecturer in Climate Risk, Cardiff UniversityErik W. Kolstad, Research professor, Uni ResearchKaterina Michaelides, Professor of Dryland Hydrology, School of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolMichael Singer, Professor of Hydrology and Geomorphology, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241752024-02-27T16:13:30Z2024-02-27T16:13:30ZWould you drink recycled water?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577263/original/file-20240206-18-9p3kqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6720%2C4466&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/man-pouring-water-into-glass-kitchen-1928623259">New Africa / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The wastewater from your home – much like paper and plastic – can be recycled. This is done by sending it, including sewage, either to centralised municipal recycling plants, to local neighbourhood facilities, or even to facilities incorporated in large apartment buildings. </p>
<p>There, with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118198">the right technology</a>, it is purified, and the resulting water can be used as normal for cleaning streets or watering plants. If the treatment process is thorough, it can even be used for drinking.</p>
<h2>Fighting water scarcity</h2>
<p>Recycled water is an important tool in the <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/publication/2017-un-world-water-development-report-wastewater-untapped-resource">fight against water scarcity</a>. It can help to reduce strain on our limited freshwater reserves, which make up only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128845">2.5% of all the water on the planet</a>.</p>
<p>In several parts of Spain, such as <a href="https://www.aguasdealicante.es/en/reutilizacion">Alicante</a>, it is already being used in farming, and in parks, gardens and leisure facilities. Elsewhere, including <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/singapore-wastewater-recycling-water-stressed/">Singapore</a> and Namibia, it is being used for human consumption.</p>
<p>However, in other parts of the world citizens have rejected the idea of recycling water, despite its safety and potential benefits. In some cases, this resistance has emerged after heavy government investment in infrastructure.</p>
<p>Imagine if your town or city proposed recycling wastewater. What would your reaction be? Whether you think it is a good idea or not, there are psychological factors that affect your decision.</p>
<h2>Acceptance depends on use</h2>
<p>You might be OK with reusing water, but not in all situations, and there is actually a pattern with regard to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118380">which uses are seen as most acceptable</a>. In essence, the more physical contact a person has with recycled water, the less likely they are to accept it.</p>
<p>Most people have no problem using recycled water to clean streets, but when it begins to touch our skin – for example in the shower – acceptance plummets. This is even more pronounced when it comes to ingesting it. </p>
<p>You might think that this pattern would not apply in a situation of objective scarcity: desperate times call for desperate measures, and people would, surely, be more open to recycled water in areas threatened by drought. You would, however, be mistaken.</p>
<h2>Perceptions of scarcity</h2>
<p>Curiously, acceptance levels are similar in areas that have totally different levels of water availability. This is evident within Spain, home to one of Europe’s wettest regions (Galicia) and one of its driest (Murcia). This uniformity raises the question of why acceptance drops as skin contact increases.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing acceptance levels for different uses of recycled waste water in the Spanish regions of Murcia and Galicia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577641/original/file-20240223-24-q12r27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Acceptance levels for different uses of recycled waste water show little variation between the Spanish regions of Murcia (one of the driest areas in Europe) and Galicia (one of the wettest).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's elaboration</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Situations of scarcity have a definite impact, but more than hard statistics, it is our perception of scarcity that matters most: a negative event or situation has no impact if people do not interpret it as negative. Even when the danger is recognised, its effects may be perceived as distant in time or location, a phenomenon known as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2015.10.003">psychological distance</a>. </p>
<p>Although the objective drought situation may differ between regions, what matters is how threatened people feel by it. </p>
<h2>Recycled water is safe, but not everyone is convinced</h2>
<p>You might be one of those people who would be repulsed if you found a hair in your soup. You might think the meal is ruined, and you may as well throw it away. When an item has been in contact with a contaminant, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/0470013494.ch21">there is a tendency to believe that it has acquired its harmful properties forever</a>, despite evidence to the contrary.</p>
<p>This logic of contamination applies to recycled water. Though treatment processes can guarantee that water has been completely purified – to the point where it is just as safe as regular tap water – people still feel it could cause them harm. For this reason, increased contact with water increases the perception of risk, drastically reducing acceptance.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing levels of perceived risk and acceptance with regard to different uses of waste water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577642/original/file-20240223-18-eqvxkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Levels of perceived risk and acceptance with regard to different uses of waste water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's elaboration</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have to remember, however, that people’s beliefs can change. We might like to think we can change our own perceptions, but many of them are moulded by our social exchanges. We might, for example, feel more open to using recycled water if the proposal came from a trusted source.</p>
<p>We also tend to observe and follow the majority, and low contact uses of recycled water (such as watering plants and cleaning streets) are already widely accepted. As these uses become more widespread, people will become more familiar with the processes involved, and will begin to recognise its benefits in confronting water scarcity.</p>
<p>This positive perception will then extend to other uses, marking a profound shift in our perceptions of responsible water use. One day, you might even find yourself going to a restaurant and ordering a bottle of recycled water, as if it were the most natural thing in the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sergio Vila Tojo receives funding from the H2020 Run4Life project, financed by the European Commission. The research in this article has been carried out as part of the project.</span></em></p>Recycled waste water is perfectly safe to drink, but many people aren’t keen to use it for anything other than watering plants.Sergio Vila Tojo, Investigador posdoctoral en psicología social aplicada al medioambiente, Universidade de Santiago de CompostelaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232172024-02-13T16:38:00Z2024-02-13T16:38:00ZDonkeys are unsung heroes in Ethiopia’s humanitarian crisis – and they could do even more with better support<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574951/original/file-20240212-28-w82tdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C0%2C2560%2C1686&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The front cover of the Norwegian Refugee Council's Annual Report on Ethiopia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nrc.no/shorthand/stories/nrc-ethiopia-annual-report-2020/assets/8XbNZwavN5/dsc_6544-web-2560x1707.jpeg">Tinbit Amare Dejene / Norwegian Refugee Council</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conflict and drought in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia has triggered a humanitarian crisis. The Ethiopian government says <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68198484">16 million people</a> across the country are facing food shortages, with almost half of those suffering emergency or severe levels of food insecurity. </p>
<p>In response to the crisis, the UK has <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-100-million-of-new-aid-for-over-three-million-vulnerable-people-in-ethiopia-as-humanitarian-crisis-deepens">announced</a> £100 million in overseas development aid for essential healthcare services. More than 3 million Ethiopians, including vulnerable women and children, will receive lifesaving help through the programme.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-ramps-deliveries-vital-food-assistance-drought-and-conflict-affected-areas-ethiopia#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20of%20Ethiopia's%20most,insecurity%20and%20need%20emergency%20assistance.">overseas aid</a> to be deployed most effectively (reaching the goal of supporting the lives of women and children), it should be extended to support the care of donkeys. </p>
<p>In Ethiopia, donkeys are unrecognised humanitarian workers who provide vital support through their labour to ensure the survival of people, especially vulnerable women and children. But donkeys in Ethiopia are often overlooked, poorly cared for and overworked because of poverty and a constant reliance on their labour.</p>
<p>The strains of poverty, subsistence work and the effects of conflict are clearly not only experienced by humans. Animals <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-beasts-of-burden-how-to-reward-our-animals-for-their-work-92713">work for and with people</a> living in these circumstances and risk their lives in doing so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-beasts-of-burden-how-to-reward-our-animals-for-their-work-92713">Beyond beasts of burden: How to reward our animals for their work</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A female donkey standing beside her foal in a rural village." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574925/original/file-20240212-26-3m18sb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A jenny (female donkey) and her foal stand nearby a group of homes in a rural village in central Ethiopia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martha Geiger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why donkeys matter</h2>
<p>The war formally ended in November 2022. But the Tigray region remains in ruins and 1 million people have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/we-must-act-on-ethiopia-food-crisis-says-uk-minister">displaced</a> from northern Ethiopia. Donkeys are key providers of aid to displaced families by enabling access to water, foodstuffs and firewood that people would otherwise not be able to reach on foot. </p>
<p>But many donkeys in Ethiopia die prematurely due to a lack of food and water, and because of the enormous strain their labour places on their bodies. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Endale-Teshome/publication/335201996_Study_on_the_Health_and_Welfare_of_Working_Donkeys_in_Mirab_Abaya_District_Southern_Ethiopia/links/5d565108a6fdccb7dc3fad01/Study-on-the-Health-and-Welfare-of-Working-Donkeys-in-Mirab-Abaya-District-Southern-Ethiopia.pdf">Research</a> from 2016 found that donkeys have a working life of only four to six years in Ethiopia. In contrast, donkeys can have working lives of up to 30 years where welfare standards are higher. </p>
<p>When a donkey dies, their human co-workers are left in need and without support. My <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/soan/aop/article-10.1163-15685306-bja10134/article-10.1163-15685306-bja10134.xml">own research</a>, which was published in July 2023, has shown that women in rural areas of Ethiopia (where <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10503176/#CR22">80% of the country’s population</a> live) are dependent upon and most affected by the loss of a donkey. </p>
<p>Women in central Ethiopia report that an enormous physical burden falls on them to carry livelihood materials on their backs and shoulders for long distances if they don’t have donkeys to work with. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a rural village walks with her donkeys who are carrying water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4265%2C2845&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574792/original/file-20240211-28-aomsfo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman in a rural village in central Ethiopia walks with her donkeys who are carrying water to her family’s homestead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martha Geiger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Low status</h2>
<p>My more <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/13607804231213559">recent research</a> has revealed that donkeys, along with their women co-workers, are at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Donkeys are associated with drudgery and women’s work, so a socio-cultural norm holds that the two groups are “the same”. </p>
<p>In fact, there are numerous common Ethiopian proverbs that compare women with donkeys. According to one proverb: “Women are commonly beaten by their husbands, but they are staying with their husbands to raise their children. And donkeys are often beaten by their owners, but they will not run away from their owners.” </p>
<p>Another is that: “The least of animals is the donkey, and the least of human beings is a woman. They are doing as they have been told by men.” This equivalency reinforces the marginalisation and subjugation of both groups, manifesting in domestic violence towards them.</p>
<p>A huge number of Ethiopian women have suffered physical and mental injuries during the war and the crisis that has followed. Health experts <a href="https://gh.bmj.com/content/8/7/e010270">estimate</a> that between 40% and 45% of women have suffered gender-based violence during the conflict. </p>
<p>Other studies <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10362876/">report</a> that more than one-third of women in Ethiopia experience gender-based violence in their lifetime. In reality, these figures are probably even higher owing to under-reporting because of a lack of access to healthcare services and the fear of stigmatisation.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/animal-welfare/article/comparison-of-the-socioeconomic-value-and-welfare-of-working-donkeys-in-rural-and-urban-ethiopia/1220694C5411787FA25CD9B2286461AF">research</a> on the welfare of donkeys in Ethiopia has also recorded instances of donkeys being hit by their human co-workers while working. The majority of donkey owners reported feeling justified in hitting their donkeys if they refuse to move forward or comply with human requests of them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A rural woman standing next to her donkey in a field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574924/original/file-20240212-29-k252zt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rural woman standing with her donkey co-worker as she prepares for the working day ahead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martha Geiger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Recognising their work</h2>
<p>In light of my findings, and amid reports of <a href="https://www.refugeesinternational.org/statements-and-news/refugees-international-alarmed-by-humanitarian-crisis-in-tigray-effects-of-conflict-related-sexual-violence/">escalating violence</a> against women in the region, humanitarian programmes aimed at enhancing the status of women and dismantling oppressive systems should also include wellbeing support to their donkeys.</p>
<p>Addressing the needs of both women and donkeys through protection, healthcare and aid can help combat the normalisation of violence against both groups. This will convey the importance of both women and donkeys to Ethiopian society. </p>
<p>By ignoring the humanitarian labour of donkeys and their contribution to human wellbeing, we risk further exploiting and marginalising both donkeys and the millions of women and children who depend upon them for basic subsistence support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martha Geiger has received funding from the Donkey Sanctuary UK for her data collection in Ethiopia. </span></em></p>Donkeys provide vital support to women but their lives are often cut short.Martha Geiger, PhD Candidate in Sociology, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210042024-01-17T02:38:02Z2024-01-17T02:38:02ZUp to 5 billion people to be hit by rainfall changes this century if CO₂ emissions are not curbed, research shows<p>Three to five billion people – or up to two-thirds of the world’s population – are set to be affected by projected rainfall changes by the end of the century unless the world rapidly ramps up emissions reduction efforts, according to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44513-3">new research</a> by myself and colleagues.</p>
<p>To date, the effects of climate change on global rainfall has been <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall/">uncertain</a>. This has hampered our capacity to adapt to climate change and prepare for natural disasters.</p>
<p>Our method overcomes this uncertainty. We identified the regions where multiple climate models make similar projections about future rainfall impacts, and so reveal the global hot spots for drier and wetter conditions in future. </p>
<p>Our findings have deep implications for a large proportion of the world’s population – including millions of Australians.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="girl in pink dress plays in muddy puddle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569712/original/file-20240117-27-tng0ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Up to five billion people, including millions of Australians, are set to be affected by rainfall changes by 2100 under climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Navigating the uncertainty of rain projections</h2>
<p>Climate models are one of the main ways scientists understand how the climate behaved in the past and might change in future. They <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-a-few-climate-models-give-unexpected-predictions-but-the-technology-remains-a-powerful-tool-165611">comprise</a> millions of lines of computer code and use mathematical equations to <a href="https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/climate-data-primer/predicting-climate/climate-models">represent</a> how energy and materials move through the ocean, atmosphere and land. For future projections, climate models are driven by <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">emissions scenarios</a> representing various possible emissions trajectories.</p>
<p>Using climate models to simulate future rainfall patterns is a difficult task. Rain is influenced by complex factors, such as radiative balance (how much of the Sun’s energy is coming in versus how much is leaving), as well as climate drivers linked to specific sea surface temperature patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña. This means different climate models often produce different rainfall projections, especially at a regional level.</p>
<p>We wanted to investigate the extent to which climate models “agree”, or produce similar projections, about how CO₂ emissions may affect future rainfall around the globe.</p>
<p>There are several ways to do this. The usual method is to average out data collected over time – say, two decades. But this approach can eliminate important information and obscure vital insights into how rainfall will behave in future.</p>
<p>We used an innovative and more comprehensive approach based on “time-series” data, or data collected at regular intervals over time – comprising historical and future projections from 1980 to 2100. This approach accounts for continual changes over time, both in the recent past and out to the end of this century.</p>
<p>We analysed both the <a href="https://wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phase-6-cmip6/">current</a> and <a href="https://wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phase-5-cmip5/">previous</a> generations of climate models – 146 in all.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-a-few-climate-models-give-unexpected-predictions-but-the-technology-remains-a-powerful-tool-165611">Yes, a few climate models give unexpected predictions – but the technology remains a powerful tool</a>
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<h2>The global hotspots</h2>
<p>Our analysis showed several countries facing drier conditions in future. The top five most affected were Greece, Spain, Palestine, Portugal and Morocco, where at least 85% of models projected significantly reduced annual rainfall by the end of this century, under a worst-case scenario of very high emissions.</p>
<p>In contrast, for Finland, North Korea, Russia, Canada and Norway, more than 90% of models agreed on a trend towards increasing annual rainfall.</p>
<p>The picture was similar for most parts of the highly populated nations of China and India, which are together home to more than 2.7 billion people. In those nations, 70% of models agreed on projections for increasing rainfall.</p>
<p>Our analysis showed some European countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany and France, were generally projected to experience less rainfall in summer and more in winter. These increases and decreases offset each other, which means no change in total rainfall, but substantial changes in seasonal distributions over the year.</p>
<p>Using our approach, rainfall projections remained unclear for some parts of the world. These include most of Australia, as well as central Europe, southwest Asia and parts of the African west coast and South America. </p>
<p>All up, the regions getting wetter or drier under global warming cover a vast proportion of the globe. Under scenarios where emissions remain intermediate (where emissions decline to about half of 2050 levels by the end of the century), 38% of the current world’s population, or three billion people, would be affected by changes in rainfall.</p>
<p>If we experience very high emissions instead, 66% of the world’s population – or five billion people – would be affected. Many of these regions are already experiencing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">wetting</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-in-the-amazon-understanding-the-causes-and-the-need-for-an-immediate-action-plan-to-save-the-biome-215650">drying</a> effects of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569240/original/file-20240115-25-6zr8br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regions where global models agree most on projected future wetter and drier conditions under intermediate and very high emissions. Bar charts show countries ranked by model agreement with lines displaying internal variability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A spotlight on Australia</h2>
<p>Our analysis for Australia found climate models agree on a significant drying hotspot over the Indian Ocean, engulfing Australia’s southwestern and south coasts. Spring was the season with the greatest rainfall reduction over this region. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569247/original/file-20240115-25-b6hxs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Red and blue regions show locations where drying and wetting was detected by multiple climate models</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What about at a state level? Under a very high emissions scenario, half of models indicate future drier conditions for Victoria. This is driven by changes in winter and spring rainfall. Other states and territories with agreement for a drier future winter, also under a high emissions scenario, include the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia. The models also project a reduction in spring rainfall in Tasmania.</p>
<p>Some 1.9 million Australians would be affected by these drying patterns, under an intermediate emissions scenario. They comprise those in southwest WA including Perth and the Wheatbelt region. Under very high emissions, as the impacted region expands fourfold towards western Victoria, around 8 million Australians could be affected.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Australasian regions where most global models agree on future drier and wetter patterns under elevated emissions" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569245/original/file-20240115-27-xmcyka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australasian regions where most global models agree on future drier and wetter patterns under elevated emissions. Southwestern Australia and parts of the south and east coasts may experience a drier future under very high emissions (shaded red). When moderate emissions are considered, the affected region is reduced (red contours).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>As climate change accelerates, it’s essential to understand the potential changes in global rainfall and the consequences on human populations.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I hope our findings reduce uncertainty about how rainfall patterns will shift around the world, and help governments and communities to design effective ways to adapt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph Trancoso leads the Queensland Future Climate Science Program - a collaborative program between the University of Queensland and Queensland's Department of Environment and Science undertaking applied climate science to support climate adaptation and natural disaster preparedness.</span></em></p>To date, the effects of climate change on global rainfall has been uncertain. New research overcomes this uncertainty – with alarming results.Ralph Trancoso, Adjunct Associate Professor in Climate Change, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169262024-01-16T14:14:57Z2024-01-16T14:14:57ZAn ancient system that could bring water to dry areas<p>Some of Africa’s dry areas face serious water shortages due to minimal rainfall. An ancient system of drawing water from aquifers, the “qanat system”, could help. Gaathier Mahed, an environmental scientist and expert on the management of groundwater, has <a href="https://waqfacademy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/SaniBook_Draft_2Aug09_1c_Part2_chapter13.pdf#page=2">studied the feasibility</a> of these systems. He tells us more._</p>
<h2>How does the qanat system work?</h2>
<p>There are bodies of water underground known as aquifers, some of which can be found at the tops of valleys or near mountains. A qanat system taps these aquifers and, using underground tunnels, moves the water, using gravity, over many kilometres. The tunnel then exits at a lower-lying area. </p>
<p>When the water exits the tunnel, farmers can use it to irrigate their crops. People can also access the water along the stretch of the tunnel using wells.</p>
<p>It’s a system that’s managed by everyone, and its benefits are shared. Everybody has a vested interest and a role to play. Community bonds can be strengthened – in stark contrast to tensions we see over water resources today.</p>
<p>It’s a highly complex communal system to manage. Laws governing the system have existed since the <a href="https://www.ircwash.org/sites/default/files/English-1968-Origin.pdf">9th century</a>. These laws relate to the construction and proximity of <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-00268-8_3">qanat tunnels</a> to each other. They also govern the exits of the qanats. For instance, land owners at the exits can use the water first and must aid in managing them. </p>
<h2>Where did it come from and where is it used?</h2>
<p>The qanats have been used <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1506/">for centuries</a> in arid and semi-arid parts of north Africa, the Middle East and Asia, where water supplies are limited. It’s known by a variety of names, “foggara” in north Africa, “falaj” in Oman and “qarez” in parts of Asia. </p>
<p>It’s thought to have been <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/harvesting-water-and-harnessing-cooperation-qanat-systems-middle-east-and-asia">developed</a> in Persia in the first millennium BC. As the Islamic Empire <a href="https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-hccc-worldcivilization/chapter/islamic-conquest-of-the-maghreb/">spread</a> across the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, north Africa, and parts of Europe from 661 to 750 CE, so did knowledge about qanats.</p>
<p>Today, some of the region’s qanat systems, <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1506/">like those in Iran</a>, are protected under heritage status. Some of these qanats, although declining in number, are still used. They are <a href="https://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40068-015-0039-9">largely protected</a> for historical and cultural reasons.</p>
<h2>Why is it not being more widely used?</h2>
<p>There are several reasons why the tunnel system is not more widely used in Africa. </p>
<p>Qanats need to be built somewhere with the right geological formations. These generally seem to be fractured sandstones. The level of groundwater is also important for the flow of water in the qanat. The volume of water in the aquifer stems from the rainfall in the mountainous regions. </p>
<p>Qanats can only be built where there’s a slope, like a mountain or a valley. And the slope must have a <a href="https://www.livius.org/articles/misc/qanat/">specific angle</a>. If it’s too steep, erosion of the qanat will occur and it will collapse. If it’s not steep enough the water will not flow fast enough and could become chemically altered due to interaction with minerals in the ground. </p>
<p>The digging of the tunnel and development of the system over large areas of land is labour intensive and can take many years. The qanats cover many kilometres and need to be maintained every year, by cleaning out the silt build-up. </p>
<p>Knowledge of building qanats and maintaining them is being lost. People have migrated from rural areas to cities and adopted boreholes in certain areas instead. </p>
<p>Some qanats are drying up due to over exploitation of the water resource.</p>
<h2>Why should the system be used more widely?</h2>
<p>In most instances people in arid areas drill wells to access groundwater. These boreholes have a lifespan and eventually new wells have to be drilled. Pumps and materials don’t last forever, and wells can get clogged by microbial organisms and fine material in the subsurface.</p>
<p>First, the qanat is sustainable as it works with gravity and no electricity is needed. It can even be used to create clean energy. For instance, in Iran cold air that comes out of qanat tunnels is <a href="https://clubofmozambique.com/news/irans-ancient-wind-catchers-beat-the-heat-naturally-241589/">used to cool</a> the interior of large buildings. </p>
<p>Second, water lost to evaporation is minimal in comparison to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-011-9850-x">surface water</a> supplies.</p>
<p>Third, it can have a wide scale impact. Qanats are multiple kilometres long and once this water hits a floodplain, it can <a href="https://core.ac.uk/reader/82487040">irrigate multiple</a> hectares of land.</p>
<p>Fourth, it fosters social cohesion. Many people, with different skills, are involved in maintaining the system. </p>
<p>Fifth, the lifespan of the system <a href="https://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40068-015-0039-9">extends beyond</a> that of a deep water well, which is only about 20 years. Tunnels do not clog as easily as wells. </p>
<p>Finally, the quality of water coming from the mountains is much better than water on the plains. It’ll have lower salinity and be better for crops and people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gaathier Mahed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Qanats are an ancient system which could be a useful way of getting water to farms in arid areas.Gaathier Mahed, Senior lecturer, Nelson Mandela UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208362024-01-10T19:15:34Z2024-01-10T19:15:34ZHow 2023’s record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world<p>2023 was a year of record-breaking heat, devastating storms and floods, deepening droughts and raging wildfires. These events showed how climate change is affecting the global water cycle and our livelihoods.</p>
<p>Our international team of researchers has released a report, the <a href="https://www.globalwater.online/">Global Water Monitor</a>, documenting the impact of the record heat in 2023 on the water cycle. We used data from thousands of ground stations and satellites to provide real-time information on various environmental parameters. </p>
<p>The report summarises conditions and events in 2023 and long-term trends. We found global warming is profoundly changing the water cycle. As a result, we are seeing more rapid and severe droughts as well as more severe storms and flood events. </p>
<p>Scores of countries had record average annual temperatures in 2023. Severe droughts hit three continents. The world’s largest forests suffered, with Canada battling <a href="https://theconversation.com/yellowknife-and-kelowna-wildfires-burn-in-what-is-already-canadas-worst-season-on-record-211817">huge fires</a> and the Amazon <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03469-6">hit hard by drought</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-heatwave-in-antarctica-totally-blew-the-minds-of-scientists-they-set-out-to-decipher-it-and-here-are-the-results-220672">A heatwave in Antarctica totally blew the minds of scientists. They set out to decipher it – and here are the results</a>
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<h2>Heat is drying out the world</h2>
<p>The most obvious sign of the climate crisis is the unprecedented heat waves that swept the globe in 2023. Earth’s <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/even-warmer-expected-2023-was-hottest-year-record">hottest year on record</a> gave us a glimpse of what a typical year with 1.5°C of warming may look like. Global warming consistently more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is expected to have extreme and irreversible impacts on the Earth system.</p>
<p>Some 77 countries experienced their highest average annual temperature in at least 45 years. Temperature records were shattered from Canada to Brazil, Spain to Thailand.</p>
<p>The high temperatures were often accompanied by very low air humidity. The relative air humidity of the global land surface was the second-driest on record in 2023.</p>
<p>Rapid drying of farms and forests caused crops to fail and <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-consuming-more-than-ever-of-the-worlds-forests-threatening-supplies-of-wood-and-paper-216643">forests to burn</a>. Lack of rain and soaring temperatures intensified multi-year droughts in vulnerable regions such as South America, the Horn of Africa and the Mediterranean.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-consuming-more-than-ever-of-the-worlds-forests-threatening-supplies-of-wood-and-paper-216643">Fire is consuming more than ever of the world's forests, threatening supplies of wood and paper</a>
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<p>The past two decades have significantly increased air temperatures and reduced air humidity. This continuing trend toward drier conditions is threatening agriculture, biodiversity and overall water security.</p>
<p>These conditions heighten heat stress and increase the water needs of people, crops and ecosystems.</p>
<p>Scorching conditions inflicted extensive damage on the world’s largest forests. Massive wildfires ravaged Canada during the northern summer. Later in the year the Amazon rainforest and rivers descended into severe drought.</p>
<p>The world’s forests have been soaking up a lot of our fossil fuel emissions. That’s because plant photosynthesis absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Large disturbances like fire and drought reduce or even <a href="https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-drought-in-the-amazon-threatens-to-release-huge-stores-of-carbon-podcast-219250">reverse that function</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-drought-in-the-amazon-threatens-to-release-huge-stores-of-carbon-podcast-219250">Unprecedented drought in the Amazon threatens to release huge stores of carbon – podcast</a>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1743826094954790921"}"></div></p>
<h2>Water cycle changes fuel intense storms</h2>
<p>A change in circulation and sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to El Niño conditions influenced the global water cycle in 2023. But this happened against a backdrop of increasing sea surface temperatures due to global warming.</p>
<p>Rising sea surface and air temperatures have been intensifying the strength and rainfall intensity of monsoons, cyclones and other storm systems.</p>
<p>We saw this happen close to home. <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">Cyclone Jasper</a> battered northern Queensland and severe storms formed in south-east Queensland, leaving a trail of destruction. The cyclone moved much slower than expected, causing torrential rains and widespread flooding. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<p>In 2023, we also saw other cyclones behave in unexpected and deadly ways. A cyclone <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-cyclones-thunderstorms-is-climate-change-to-blame-for-new-zealands-summer-of-extreme-weather-201161">travelled across to New Zealand</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-freddy-was-the-most-energetic-storm-on-record-is-it-a-harbinger-of-things-to-come-201771">longest-lived cyclone ever recorded</a> battered south-eastern Africa for weeks. And a cyclone <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-freak-medicane-storm-that-devastated-libya-a-glimpse-of-north-africas-future-213680">developed in the Mediterranean Sea</a>, crossing from Greece to destroy reservoir dams in Libya, killing thousands. </p>
<p>The estimated global damage from cyclones in 2023 surpassed <a href="https://www.globalwater.online/">US$45 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Warmer sea temperatures fuel such freak events. As the climate crisis deepens, we can expect more unprecedented storms.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-freddy-was-the-most-energetic-storm-on-record-is-it-a-harbinger-of-things-to-come-201771">Cyclone Freddy was the most energetic storm on record. Is it a harbinger of things to come?</a>
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<h2>Outlook: 2024 and beyond</h2>
<p>At the start of 2024, the greatest risk of developing or intensifying drought appears in Central and South America (except southern Brazil and Uruguay), southern Africa and western Australia. </p>
<p>Regions that received much rainfall towards the end of 2023 are unlikely to develop drought for at least several months. These include the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa, northern Europe, India, China and South-East Asia.</p>
<p>The events of 2023 show how the threat of ongoing climate change to our planet and lives is growing by the year. There were many such events in 2023, and the human and economic toll was large. These events should not be viewed as isolated incidents but as part of a broader emerging pattern. </p>
<p>Globally, the frequency and intensity of rainfall events and flooding are increasing. At the same time, there are also more and faster developing droughts, or flash droughts, that can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires within weeks or months. With the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/food-systems/understanding/triple-challenge/">global food challenge</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/06/the-biodiversity-crisis-in-numbers-a-visual-guide-aoe">biodiversity crisis</a> and an extremely urgent need to reduce carbon emissions, these droughts and fires are among our greatest global threats.</p>
<p>Overall, 2023 provided a stark reminder of the consequences of our continued reliance on fossil fuels and the urgent need but apparent inability of humanity to act decisively to cut greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.</span></em></p>The impacts of record heat on the global water cycle were severe and wide-ranging – and the trend will continue in 2024.Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173522023-12-21T19:26:32Z2023-12-21T19:26:32ZIndia’s new manual for water supply will replicate past failures<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/indias-new-manual-for-water-supply-will-replicate-past-failures" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Water utilities in India supply residents with water for an average of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cesys.2021.100062">only four hours per day</a>. Within cities, some neighbourhoods receive water almost all the time, while some receive <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164393">less than half an hour per week</a>. </p>
<p>Intermittent supply of water <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019702">inconveniences everyone</a> and often disproportionately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-1360.2011.01111.x">burdens the poorest and most vulnerable</a>. Yet intermittent water supply has been the norm <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=e8AIAAAAQAAJ&pg=230">in India since at least 1873</a>. </p>
<p>Our research at the University of Toronto studies <a href="https://www.geography.utoronto.ca/people/directories/all-faculty/nidhi-subramanyam">the social</a> <a href="https://civmin.utoronto.ca/home/about-us/directory/professors/david-meyer/">and technical</a> causes and effects of intermittent supply in India.</p>
<h2>Perpetuating past problems</h2>
<p>Over the last few years, the Indian government <a href="https://pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1811880">has launched several</a> <a href="https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/">initiatives to improve water supply systems</a> and reduce intermittent supply. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b03973">Continuous water supply</a> keeps contaminants out of the pipes and lets users drink from the tap at any time.</p>
<p>In support of these new initiatives, India’s Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1933379">issued a new draft of the Manual on Water Supply and Treatment</a>, its first update since 1999. </p>
<p>This manual was prepared in collaboration with the <a href="https://www.giz.de/en/html/about_giz.html">German Development Agency (GIZ</a>), and workshopped over the summer at a national conference organized by the national Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. The conference was attended by water supply engineers, experts, and consultants from cities across India. </p>
<p>As in the <a href="https://www.mdws.gov.in/sites/default/files/Manual_on_Water_Supply_and_Treatment_CPHEEO_MoUD_1999.pdf">previous version</a>, the 2023 manual boldly aims to establish continuous piped water supply — a goal that still has not been achieved, nearly 25 years later. This piped water is intended primarily for indoor residential use. </p>
<p>We believe that this new continuous supply target is also unlikely to be reached due to two fatal flaws that are baked into the plan from the start. While continuous supply requires both a realistic projection of water demand and a realistic plan to ensure supply exceeds demand, the government of India’s new initiatives are unrealistic on both fronts. </p>
<h2>Underestimated demand</h2>
<p>First, the manual dramatically underestimates demand, the volume of water people will try to withdraw; true demand is more than double the projections <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024124">in some locations</a>. For a system to operate continuously, the water withdrawn from the system must remain well below the maximum amount that can be conveyed from its source — if not, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024124">the system will become intermittent</a>. </p>
<p>The new manual estimates the amount of water demand based on the projected number of users multiplied by the estimated amount that each person will withdraw in a day. However, these estimates are based upon 1999 figures for the minimum requirements for drinking, cooking, and bathing: <a href="https://www.mdws.gov.in/sites/default/files/Manual_on_Water_Supply_and_Treatment_CPHEEO_MoUD_1999.pdf">135 litres per person in most cities (150 in the country’s biggest cities</a>). </p>
<p>These estimates are reasonable projections of the minimum amount of water urbanites <em>need</em> but they grossly underestimate how much water urbanites <em>want</em>. Most users attempt to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024124">withdraw the water they want</a>, rather than what they need. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-why-collecting-water-turns-millions-of-women-into-second-class-citizens-104698">India: why collecting water turns millions of women into second-class citizens</a>
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<p>The manual could and should be informed by data about user withdrawals from the last 24 years. The manual’s prescriptions for <a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2022.149">calculating water demand should also consider the water wants of low-income populations in informal settlements and seasonal, interstate migrant workers</a>.</p>
<p>Second, the manual’s authors assume that water tariffs will be set high enough to limit users to withdrawing only the water they need. But demand-limiting tariffs have never been realized in India. </p>
<p>Sustaining high tariffs is particularly challenging as Indian politicians like Delhi’s Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal may use <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/24x7-water-supply-for-all-of-delhi-soon/articleshow/103878291.cms">free-water services</a> or lower tariffs as tools to earn voters’ approval.</p>
<p>Consider, for example, water tariffs in Bengaluru, which are higher than many cities. A family of four consuming the guideline-anticipated 150 litres per person per day will be billed Rupees <a href="https://bwssb.karnataka.gov.in/new-page/Prorata%20and%20Water%20Tariff/en">8.6 per day</a> (CAD$0.14/day); if they consume 30 per cent more than expected, their water tariffs increase by only Rupees 2.7 per day (less than $0.05/day). </p>
<p>Bengaluru’s elite will not limit their consumption for Rs 3 (five cents) — which is less than the price of a cup of tea! </p>
<p>If the manual’s anticipated high tariffs strategy for limiting demand fails, then users will withdraw more water than expected. When these higher-than-expected withdrawals exceed the system capacity, the system will become intermittent again. </p>
<p>Tragically, the drawbacks of intermittent supply will be magnified in these systems since the manual recommends they be designed as if continuous operation was guaranteed. </p>
<h2>Supply and demand</h2>
<p>Water system engineers in India are faced with two irreconcilable options: design water systems that meet only users’ minimum needs and accept intermittent operations, or design systems to sustain continuous supply by providing as much water as users want. </p>
<p>The long history of intermittent supply in India suggests that water systems designed using need-based demands are fragile and almost always revert to intermittent operations. </p>
<p>If India’s future systems are built according to the new manual — focused on providing users’ minimum needs — these new systems will never operate continuously. When these systems inevitably become intermittent, they will operate less fairly, less efficiently and less safely than if they had been designed to operate intermittently from the outset.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-indias-civil-society-can-shape-the-countrys-water-policy-144860">How India's civil society can shape the country's water policy</a>
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<p>The new manual’s aim for continuous supply replicates the failures of its predecessor and perpetuates decades of self-defeating water supply projects. </p>
<p>It’s a missed opportunity to design water systems that will operate well under both continuous and intermittent modes which are resilient to problematic demand projections, ineffective demand management, and water supply scarcity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Meyer receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and has previously received in-kind support from several public and private water utilities in India.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nidhi Subramanyam has previously received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Research Centre in Ottawa. She has also been involved in projects supporting a private water utility in India.</span></em></p>Achieving continuous supply requires both a realistic assessment of the situation and a realistic plan to meet the goal. The Government of India’s new initiatives have neither.David Meyer, Assistant Professor in Civil and Global Engineering, University of TorontoNidhi Subramanyam, Assistant Professor of Geography and Planning, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2192502023-12-07T12:05:41Z2023-12-07T12:05:41ZUnprecedented drought in the Amazon threatens to release huge stores of carbon – podcast<p>As world leaders and their climate negotiators gathered at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in early December, on the other side of the world, Brazil was experiencing an unprecedented drought in the Amazon. Scientists fear it could release of billions of additional tons of carbon into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast, we speak to an ecologist who has spent 45 years living in and studying the Amazon for causes of drought, why it’s so dangerous for the planet, and what can be done to protect the rainforest.</p>
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<p>Philip Fearnside lives in Manaus, a city of around 2 million people in Brazil’s Amazonas state. A professor at the country’s National Institute of Amazonian Research, he explains that right now, the region is suffering from a severe and unprecedented drought:</p>
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<p>It’s the lowest water levels at Manaus since data started being recorded in 1902, so 121 years. The trees are dying. There’s a big cannelier tree in my front yard that just died from one day to the next. </p>
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<p>The drought also leads to fires, with smoke causing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/29/mass-death-of-amazonian-dolphins-prompts-fears-for-vulnerable-species">pollution levels in Manaus to soar</a>. Elsewhere, the Amazon river bed is being exposed, making life difficult for people who live and work near the river. Animals are also suffering: in September, <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?9899466/Around-10-of-the-river-dolphin-population-of-Lake-Tefe-died-in-one-week">150 river dolphins</a> were found dead in Lake Tefé, where water temperatures had reached 39°C. </p>
<p>Fearnside explains that the drought is caused by three interlocking factors. Two are El Niño climate patterns caused by warm water in both the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The third is what’s called an Atlantic dipole: a patch of warm water in the north Atlantic Ocean which, combined with colder water in the south Atlantic, affects rainfall patterns in the Amazon: </p>
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<p>It won’t be until May or June that the probability of having normal water temperature in the centre of the Pacific Ocean at least passes 50% … so we’ve got a long time with droughts ahead of us.</p>
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<p>While it’s difficult to pinpoint the cause of this particular drought as climate change, Fearnside says the frequency of El Niños and Atlantic dipoles “is much much greater because of climate change”. </p>
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Leia mais:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-region-hit-by-trio-of-droughts-in-grim-snapshot-of-the-century-to-come-217652">Amazon region hit by trio of droughts in grim snapshot of the century to come</a>
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<h2>Climate tipping point</h2>
<p>The Amazon holds enormous stores of carbon. Its trees alone store around <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12798">80 billion tonnes of carbon</a>, with another 90 billion in the first metre of soil. Fearnside likens this to a latent bomb that could explode unintentionally, because the droughts and the forest fires could destroy those carbon stores and release more CO₂ into the atmosphere: </p>
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<p>Everyone hears about how much deforestation there is every year, and how much greenhouse gases are emitted, but this big store of carbon that isn’t being emitted isn’t talked about so much. And that could really be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in terms of global climate. Just a fraction of that going into the atmosphere in the space of a few years could push the climate over this tipping point. So it’s essential not to let that happen.</p>
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<p>Fearnside has a message for climate negotiators at the COP28 climate summit: that it’s obvious the use of fossil fuels must be reduced immediately and “eventually eliminated”. </p>
<p>For Brazil, he says the government should not be expanding new gas and oil fields in the mouth of the Amazon river, and has to work in a joined up way to eliminate all deforestation in the Amazon by its stated target of 2030. </p>
<p>Listen to the full interview with Philip Fearnside to find out what else needs to be done to protect the Amazon on the <a href="https://podfollow.com/the-conversation-weekly/view">The Conversation Weekly</a>, and read an article he <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-region-hit-by-trio-of-droughts-in-grim-snapshot-of-the-century-to-come-217652">wrote here too</a>. A transcript of this episode is <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2992/Amazon_Drought_Transcript.docx.pdf?1703068671">now available.</a> </p>
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<p><em>This episode was written and produced by Katie Flood with assistance from Mend Mariwany. Gemma Ware is the executive producer of the show. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.</em></p>
<p><em>Newsclips in this episode from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3L_ZgUIRXo&ab_channel=WION">WION</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn5KV1_bJ04">UOL</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCHPY2CZlEE">Reuters</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>You can find us on X, formerly known as Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Listen to <em>The Conversation Weekly</em> via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219250/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Fearnside does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brazil’s rainforest is a massive carbon store, so its severe drought could be a tipping point for the global climate. Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129532023-11-29T19:38:40Z2023-11-29T19:38:40ZCOP28: How 7 policies could help save a billion lives by 2100<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074">recent review</a> of more than 180 peer-reviewed articles — which I conducted with fellow researcher Richard Parncutt — we found that a scientific consensus has formed around the so-called <em>1,000-ton rule</em>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02323">1,000-ton rule</a> states that a person is killed every time humanity burns 1,000 tons of fossil carbon. Shockingly, we found that a 2 C temperature rise equates to a billion prematurely dead people over the next century, killed as a result of a wide range of global warming related climate breakdowns. </p>
<p>These findings were derived from a review of the climate literature that attempted to quantify future human deaths from a long list of mechanisms. </p>
<p>This is a staggering body count, though however uncomfortable it may be, it is consistent with diverse evidence and arguments from multiple disciplines. </p>
<p>As world leaders gather for the COP28 climate conference in Dubai from Nov. 30-Dec. 12, we would do well to remember that their decisions will be directly responsible for killing, or saving, real human lives.</p>
<h2>How climate change will kill us</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/07-11-2022-statement---climate-change-is-already-killing-us--but-strong-action-now-can-prevent-more-deaths">Human-caused climate change has killed</a> — and will continue to kill — many human beings by numerous climatic breakdowns caused through a complex web of direct, intermediate and indirect mechanisms. </p>
<p>Direct mortal effects of climate change include <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/heat-related-deaths-attributed-to-climate-change">heat waves</a>, which have already caused thousands of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/cc2404">human deaths by a combination of heat and humidity</a> and even threaten <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/extreme-heat-threatens-the-health-of-unborn-babies">babies</a>. </p>
<p>Intermediate causes of death involve crop failures, droughts, flooding, extreme weather, wildfires and rising seas. Crop failures, in particular, can make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1751">global hunger and starvation</a> worse. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81">More frequent and severe droughts</a> can lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051%5b0723:CCAFD%5d2.0.CO;2">more wildfires</a> that also cause human deaths, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66465570">as we saw in Hawaii</a>. Droughts can also lead to contaminated water, more frequent disease and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.782811">deaths from dehydration</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climate-refugees.org/spotlight/2022/3/3/ipcc-africa">2022 IPCC Report</a> predicted that drought would displace 700 million people in Africa by 2030. </p>
<p>On the other hand, climate change can also cause flooding (and crop failures from too much water), which also drives hunger and disease. Climate change <a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026015824714">drives sea level rise and the resultant submersion of low-lying coastal areas and storm surges exacerbate flood risks</a>, which are life-threatening for billions of people in coastal cities who face the prospect of forced migration. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822700-8.00007-X">Climate change also increases extreme weather events</a>, which kill and cause considerable damage to essential services such as the electric grid and medical facilities. <a href="https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northeast/topic/saltwater-intrusion-growing-threat-coastal-agriculture">Salt water intrusion also threatens coastal agriculture</a>, further reducing food supplies.</p>
<p>Finally, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-change-may-increase-conflict-deaths-says-imf-2023-08-30/">climate change also indirectly increases the probability of conflict and war</a>. Although the academic consensus on climate-change-induced war is far from settled, <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/climate-action-holds-key-tackling-global-conflict">there is little doubt climate change amplifies stress and can cause more localized conflict</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-palestine-conflict-how-sharing-the-waters-of-the-jordan-river-could-be-a-pathway-to-peace-216044">Israel-Palestine conflict: How sharing the waters of the Jordan River could be a pathway to peace</a>
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<p>As the number of climate refugees increases, countries further from the equator might increasingly refuse to offer asylum. In a worst-case scenario, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02957-w">social collapse is possible</a> and a <em>Proceeding of the National Academy of Science</em> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119">article reports it could be devastating</a>.</p>
<h2>There is still time</h2>
<p>A billion dead bodies is a scary prospect but not all of these deaths are predicted to occur at once. In fact, <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/07-11-2022-statement---climate-change-is-already-killing-us--but-strong-action-now-can-prevent-more-deaths">many people are already dying</a>. However, there is still time to protect those remaining from also being killed by climate change by rapidly transitioning away from carbon energy sources.</p>
<p>We need to implement aggressive energy policies today to eliminate carbon emissions in energy conservation, encourage the evolution of the energy mix to renewable energy, and manage carbon waste. We are already doing a lot of this – we just need to do it faster.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uns-global-stocktake-on-climate-offers-a-sobering-emissions-reckoning-but-there-are-also-signs-of-progress-217093">UN's 'global stocktake' on climate offers a sobering emissions reckoning − but there are also signs of progress</a>
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<p>Gradual decarbonization is not acceptable if it sacrifices such large numbers of human lives. And while each of these proposals may at first seem shocking, if we ask ourselves “would I accept this policy to save one billion human lives?” then I feel the answer becomes much clearer. </p>
<p>We must act to prevent the deaths of millions of our fellow human beings.</p>
<h2>Not so radical</h2>
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<li><p>We must mandate all new construction be net-zero buildings or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2010.09.001">positive energy buildings</a>. This would also have the bonus of providing building owners a positive return on investment and it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2014.960783">even possible to make them with no net cost</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Mandate mass purchases of energy conservation or renewable energy technologies and make them freely available to everyone with zero-interest loans that are easily paid back with energy savings. For example, a government could construct new factories to provide free insulation or solar panels to everyone that will take them. As an added bonus <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110599">solar power will save homeowners money</a> on electric bills as well as making major savings on <a href="https://www.energystar.gov/buildings/save_energy_commercial_buildings/ways_save">energy conservation measures</a> over their lifetimes.</p></li>
<li><p>Immediately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-020-01917-9">end the sale of fossil fuel vehicles</a> which will save considerable carbon and money as <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/electric-vs-gas-cars-it-cheaper-drive-ev">electric vehicles already have a lower lifetime cost than gas vehicles</a>).</p></li>
<li><p>Revoke the charters of fossil fuel companies and disperse their assets if a company or industry is responsible for killing more people from emissions than they employ. It is a sobering fact that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8020062">The United States coal industry already kills more people from air pollution per year than it employs, and that does not include climate change-related deaths</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Immediately stop investing in more fossil fuels and heavily tax all fossil fuel-related investments, and/or hold <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.025">climate emitters as well as investors economically liable</a> for harm caused by carbon emissions in the future.</p></li>
<li><p>Retrain fossil fuel workers en masse for renewable energy jobs which would help both society and workers who could expect an on average <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.016">seven per cent pay rise moving to the solar industry</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Immediately ban the extraction of fossil fuels with enforced <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2135-5">moratoriums</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Each of these seven policies will prevent an escalating amount of carbon from entering the atmosphere, preventing the concomitant climate change and billion premature deaths that would be caused by the status quo. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-secretive-legal-system-lets-fossil-fuel-investors-sue-countries-over-policies-to-keep-oil-and-gas-in-the-ground-podcast-191804">A secretive legal system lets fossil fuel investors sue countries over policies to keep oil and gas in the ground – podcast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>These policies can be achieved by targeting those first three actions that also directly align with economic savings. As economic replacements for fossil fuel technologies scale, the need for fossil fuel investment will continue its existing decline and pushing that decline further will become more politically palatable. As this is happening it will make sense to protect fossil fuel workers by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">retraining them</a> so they can help accelerate the transition until all carbon-emitting fossil fuel use is ended to enable a stable climate. </p>
<p>This obviously is not going to be easy, but I believe that the vast majority of human beings are good people who will accept temporary inconveniences to transition to an energy system that will prevent one billion premature deaths. </p>
<p>Protecting these lives instead of sacrificing them would be an outcome from COP28 that demonstrates real leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received funding for research from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). In addition, his past and present consulting work and research is funded by the United Nations, the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, many non-profits and for-profit companies in the energy and solar photovoltaic fields. He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada. He does not directly work for any solar manufacturer and has no direct conflicts of interests.</span></em></p>A recent study found one billion people are likely to die prematurely by the end of the century from climate change. Here are seven energy policies that could save their lives.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170672023-11-26T08:40:39Z2023-11-26T08:40:39ZClimate adaptation funds are not reaching frontline communities: what needs to be done about it<p>Communities around the world face <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate/Africa-2022">increasingly severe</a> and <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/facts-about-climate-change-in-africa/">frequent impacts</a> from climate change. They are on the “frontlines” of droughts, flooding, desertification and sea level rise. </p>
<p>International climate finance is supposed to help. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s wealthiest countries pledged <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-finance-for-climate-adaptation#Developed-countries-have-pledged-USD-100-billion-a">US$50 billion annually</a> to support climate adaptation among those “particularly vulnerable” to climate change. Climate adaptation is the adjustments humans make to reduce exposure to climate risk. </p>
<p>Eight years later, it is clear that this money is failing to reach vulnerable “frontline communities”, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, South Sudan and Niger have been among the <a href="https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/2021-01/cri-2021_table_10_most_affected_countries_in_2019.jpg">top ten most affected countries</a>.</p>
<p>The host country of the upcoming annual United Nations climate negotiations (COP28), the United Arab Emirates, has announced it is focused on “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/10/cop28-presidency-co-hosts-global-dialogue-in-abu-dhabi-to-focus-on-accelerating-the-energy">fixing climate finance</a>”. </p>
<p>I am a researcher who has studied international climate finance for seven years, both at the annual COPs and through research in <a href="https://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/finance-for-climate-adaptation-fails-reach-most-vulnerable/">Madagascar</a>, Mauritius and <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects/equity-in-adaptation-finance/">Namibia</a>. My work explores how to make climate finance more equitable and accessible for vulnerable communities.</p>
<p>It’s my view that the countries that contribute the bulk of the funding for climate adaptation can ensure more money reaches those who need it most. To do that they must first understand why financing isn’t reaching frontline communities. Otherwise money will continue to fall well short of need.</p>
<h2>Why funding isn’t reaching vulnerable communities</h2>
<p>The clearest reason why adaptation finance does not reach these communities is that there is simply not enough of it. Wealthy countries have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/20/rich-countries-not-providing-poor-with-pledged-climate-finance-analysis-says">consistently failed</a> to deliver on the US$50 billion commitment. Every year the gap between needs and support grows. The latest <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">Adaptation Gap Report</a> estimates that international adaptation finance is 10-18 times below need.</p>
<p>Beyond this shortfall, the current structure of climate finance prevents frontline communities from accessing support. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378022000139">Studies show</a> that the poorest and most vulnerable countries receive less than their fair share of adaptation finance. Support for sub-Saharan African countries is <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-in-which-finance-for-climate-adaptation-in-africa-falls-short-169280">as little as US$5 per person</a> per year. </p>
<p>Two key barriers explain this disconnect. The first is the overlap of climate vulnerability with conflict and political instability. <a href="https://www.icrc.org/sites/default/files/topic/file_plus_list/rain_turns_to_dust_climate_change_conflict.pdf#page=12">Twelve of the 20 countries</a> most vulnerable to climate change are also affected by conflict. Vulnerable countries are also prone to political turmoil, frequent changes in government, and high levels of government corruption.</p>
<p>UN climate funds and other major funders like the World Bank see these countries as less “ready” for adaptation projects. <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/169654">My research</a> has also found that wealthy countries worry their taxpayers’ money will be lost to corruption.</p>
<p>The second barrier is the finance application process. Proposals for UN climate funds, such as the <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/improving-access-green-climate-fund-how-fund-can-better-support-developing-country">Green Climate Fund</a>, can number hundreds of pages. Application requirements differ from fund to fund. It can take years to develop a proposal and to receive the money.</p>
<h2>Reaching frontline communities</h2>
<p>Even when vulnerable countries receive international support, further barriers can prevent it from reaching frontline communities. Currently, only <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-three-major-gaps-in-climate-adaptation-finance-for-developing-countries/">17% of adaptation finance has reached local levels</a>. My research in <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/169654">Madagascar and Mauritius</a> found both administrative and political barriers.</p>
<p>National governments consume resources administering grants, often hiring expensive foreign consultants to plan, implement and monitor projects. These costs eat into the money intended for local communities. The focus on large, individual projects tends to concentrate funding in one area, limiting how far benefits can reach.</p>
<p>Funds also require clear evidence of success. Governments might invest in projects they know will succeed rather than take innovative approaches or choose riskier areas. </p>
<p>National governments also make decisions for political reasons. They tend to distribute resources – including money for adaptation – based on what will help them stay in power. They are more likely to fund political supporters than opponents. Communities are often vulnerable precisely because they are politically marginalised.</p>
<p>Finally, studies show that adaptation finance, like development funding, can be lost to corruption and mismanagement. Wealthy and powerful elites can <a href="https://theecologist.org/2021/jan/22/adaptation-funds-increase-climate-vulnerability">“capture” the benefits</a> of internationally financed projects, such as a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000050">disproportionate share of rice seeds</a> for a project to build the resilience of agriculture in Madagascar.</p>
<h2>How to fix it</h2>
<p>It is not too late to change how adaptation finance flows to ensure more of it reaches vulnerable communities. The first step is to increase funding for adaptation. Support for adaptation <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">actually declined in 2021</a>, the most recent year for which we have data. Wealthy countries must meet the commitments they made in the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>The second step is for UN funds, the World Bank and wealthy countries to dedicate a greater proportion of funding to the most vulnerable countries. They must do so regardless of whether these countries are affected by conflict, instability and corruption.</p>
<p>For UN funds this can be accomplished by simplifying and standardising application procedures. Funds can also dedicate more resources to help countries prepare proposals. They should focus less on demanding clear results and more on supporting adaptation that aligns with national and local priorities.</p>
<p>Wealthy countries that contribute to climate funds need to give up some power over the money. They will have to accept imperfect governance and that some funding will be lost to mismanagement and corruption. They have tolerated such trade-offs before, such as during the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/corruption-covid-19-how-to-fight-back/">COVID pandemic</a>, when urgency outweighed concerns over waste and fraud.</p>
<p>But funders should also push for increased transparency around projects. They can encourage scrutiny by local civil society groups, for example, by publishing project information in local languages.</p>
<p>The third step is to experiment. For example, the Green Climate Fund is currently experimenting with <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/project/fp024">“decentralised” adaptation finance</a> in Namibia. Rather than a single large project, the Namibian government broke the funds into 31 small grants for community-based organisations. Together with the University of Namibia, we are <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects/equity-in-adaptation-finance/">examining whether and how</a> this approach helps more funding reach frontline communities. Early results are encouraging.</p>
<p>Fixing climate finance is not simple, but it is urgent. Failing to do so means leaving the most vulnerable alone to face the increasing threats of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Browne has received funding from the US Department of Education (Fulbright-Hayes Doctoral Dissertation Abroad fellowship), US State Department (Fulbright Fellowship), the University of Michigan, and Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS).</span></em></p>Getting climate funds to frontline communities may require rich countries and the UN easing control over how the money is spent.Katherine Browne, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156312023-11-16T14:47:59Z2023-11-16T14:47:59ZClimate change and farming: economists warn more needs to be done to adapt in sub-Saharan Africa<p>Sub-Saharan African countries strongly rely on the agricultural and forestry sectors. Agriculture contributes up to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=ZG">60%</a> of some countries’ gross domestic product. But the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change because it relies heavily on climatic factors. This vulnerability is particularly marked in the region because of its slow rate of technological advancement.</p>
<p>As agricultural economists we carried out a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">review</a> of the literature on the climate change challenge for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. We explored the distribution of various climatic factors (like rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events) across the region, and their impact on agriculture. We also investigated what rural farmers were doing to respond to climate change. </p>
<p>We found that the implications of climate change for agricultural and economic development are diverse across the region. It is difficult to predict exactly how climate change will affect agriculture and economic development. </p>
<p>But is is clear that sub-Saharan African countries like Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, and Kenya are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">extremely vulnerable</a> to <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa">climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Farmers are not using effective adaptation strategies. These include planting drought tolerant crop varieties, and conserving water and soil. Limited resources and infrastructure have held them back. Mitigation programmes such as carbon pricing, water management, recycling, afforestation and reforestation have had limited impact. Poor climate change awareness, unstable government policies and political instability have hindered the programmes.</p>
<p>The impact of climate change on vulnerable households will be extreme if adequate measures are not taken in time. Research suggests that countries such as Togo, Nigeria, Congo and Mali will record more agricultural <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf#page=13">losses</a> without adaptation. Governments, international organisations, local communities and other stakeholders need to develop strategies to address the diverse needs of rural farmers in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<h2>What our review found</h2>
<p>The studies we reviewed indicated that patterns of rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events have changed significantly in the region. This trend is not expected to change in future decades.</p>
<p>Sub-Saharan Africa experiences <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">diverse rainfall patterns</a>. Annual rainfall can be as low as 100 millimetres in arid areas in the Sahel and parts of east Africa and over 500 millimetres in tropical areas in central and western Africa. </p>
<p>Temperatures can often exceed 40°C (104°F) during the hottest months. Over the last century, the mean temperature has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000292">increased</a> by about 0.74°C. </p>
<p>The region <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000292">experiences</a> various extreme weather events, including droughts, floods and heatwaves. Coastal areas, especially in the eastern and southern regions, experience <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/cyclones-more-frequent-storms-threaten-africa/">cyclones or tropical storms</a>.</p>
<p>Many studies show that these conditions affect agricultural production and society in a number of ways:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Yield reduction: Climate change reduces crop yield. Higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, droughts and floods affect harvests. For instance, farmers in Nigeria have seen lower yields caused by new pests, disease outbreaks and the drying up of rivers. </p></li>
<li><p>Food insecurity: Poor agricultural productivity often leads to food insecurity, which affects both rural and urban populations. Lower crop yields can cause prices to rise. Reduced access to food can worsen malnutrition and hunger.</p></li>
<li><p>Income loss and poverty: Lower agricultural output affects the income of smallholder farmers. This can increase poverty levels and economic vulnerability. We found a decline in cereal production over the last decade in Ghana, Congo and South Africa. </p></li>
<li><p>Decreased livestock productivity: Higher temperatures, changes in forage availability, and water scarcity are a challenge for livestock farmers. These make livestock prone to diseases and death. Farmers incur high costs to immunise and treat animals.</p></li>
<li><p>Vulnerability of smallholder farmers: These farmers don’t always have the resources and capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Recommendation and policy implications</h2>
<p>The review of studies showed that sub-Saharan Africa could develop economically if rural farmers took more effective measures against climate change.</p>
<p>We made the following recommendations to protect farmers from the impact of climate change:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Strengthen institutions for policy development and implementation. Coordinating climate change adaptation efforts and sustainable agricultural practices improves farm productivity. </p></li>
<li><p>Improve rural infrastructure. This would promote economic growth, reduce poverty and make rural communities more resilient. </p></li>
<li><p>Initiate public welfare programmes. Improved access to finance, markets, education and climate information would enhance social protection.</p></li>
<li><p>Establish more forest plantations and maintain existing ones. They would help absorb the impact of climate change on agriculture and promote economic development.</p></li>
<li><p>Afforestation and reforestation can also help absorb carbon and conserve biodiversity.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso. Researcher at Oyo State College of Agriculture and Technology, Igboora, Nigeria </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abiodun Olusola Omotayo receives funding from The Climap Africa programme,German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD-Grant Ref: 91838393), Germany and the National Research Foundation’s (NRF), Incentive Funding for Rated Researchers (Grant number: 151680), South Africa. </span></em></p>Smallholder farmers are bearing the brunt of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Deliberate steps are required to support them and boost agricultural output,Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso, Postdoctoral research associate, North-West UniversityAbiodun Olusola Omotayo, Senior lecturer/researcher, North-West UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169532023-11-09T13:34:54Z2023-11-09T13:34:54ZExposing plants to an unusual chemical early on may bolster their growth and help feed the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558170/original/file-20231107-15-2x75fz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=69%2C0%2C5106%2C3445&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Priming' plants by exposing them to certain chemicals while they're seeds can affect their growth later in life. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EbolaPlantMedicines/4e55603d42934e59bf03858de1aae0db/photo?Query=plants&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=222&currentItemNo=30&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Gerry Broome</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just like any other organism, plants can get stressed. Usually it’s conditions like <a href="https://theconversation.com/crops-could-face-double-trouble-from-insects-and-a-warming-climate-131367">heat and drought</a> that lead to this stress, and when they’re stressed, plants might not grow as large or produce as much. This can be a problem for farmers, so many scientists have tried <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-gene-editing-provide-a-solution-to-global-hunger-43444">genetically modifying plants</a> to be more resilient. </p>
<p>But plants modified for higher crop yields tend to have <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11010033">a lower stress tolerance</a> because they put more energy into growth than into protection against stresses. Similarly, improving the ability of plants to survive stress often results in plants that produce less because they put more energy into protection than into growth. This conundrum makes it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biori.2020.02.001">difficult to improve crop production</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://binderlab.utk.edu/">I have been studying</a> how the plant hormone ethylene regulates growth and stress responses in plants. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">study published in July 2023</a>, my lab made an unexpected and exciting observation. We found that when seeds are germinating in darkness, as they usually are underground, adding ethylene can increase both their growth and stress tolerance.</p>
<h2>Ethylene is a plant hormone</h2>
<p>Plants can’t move around, so they can’t avoid stressful environmental conditions like heat and drought. They take in a variety of signals from their environment such as light and temperature that shape how they grow, develop and deal with stressful conditions. As part of this regulation, plants <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/plant-hormone">make various hormones</a> that are part of a regulatory network that allows them to adapt to environmental conditions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/pharmacology-toxicology-and-pharmaceutical-science/ethylene">Ethylene</a> was first discovered as a gaseous plant hormone <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00344-015-9522-9">over 100 years ago</a>. Since then, research has shown that all land plants that have been studied make ethylene. In addition to controlling growth and responding to stress, it is also involved in other processes such as causing leaves to change color in the fall and stimulating fruit ripening. </p>
<h2>Ethylene as a way to ‘prime’ plants</h2>
<p>My lab focuses on how plants and bacteria sense ethylene and on how it interacts with other hormone pathways to regulate plant development. While conducting this research, my group made <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">an accidental discovery</a>.</p>
<p>We’d been running an experiment where we had seeds germinating in a dark room. Seed germination is a critical period in a plant’s life when, under favorable conditions, the seed will transition from being dormant into a seedling. </p>
<p>For this experiment, we’d <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">exposed the seeds to ethylene gas</a> for several days to see what effect this might have. We’d then removed the ethylene. Normally, this is where the experiment would have ended. But after gathering data on these seedlings, we transferred them to a light cart. This is not something we usually do, but we wanted to grow the plants to adulthood so we could get seeds for future experiments.</p>
<p>Several days after placing the seedlings under light, some lab members made the unexpected and startling observation that the plants briefly gassed with ethylene <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">were much larger</a>. They had larger leaves as well as longer and more complex root systems than plants that had not been exposed to ethylene. These plants continued growing at a faster rate throughout their whole lifetime. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two plants as shown from above on a black table. The plant on the left is smaller than the plant on the right." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557339/original/file-20231102-26-1tp153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The plant on the left was not primed with ethylene, while the plant on the right was. Both plants are the same age.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Binder lab, University of Tennessee, Knoxville</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My colleagues and I wanted to know if diverse plant species showed growth stimulation when exposed to ethylene during seed germination. We found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">the answer is yes</a>. We tested the effects of short-term ethylene treatment on germinating tomato, cucumber, wheat and arugula seeds – all grew bigger.</p>
<p>But what made this observation unusual and exciting is that the brief ethylene treatment also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">increased tolerance to various stresses</a> such as salt stress, high temperature and low oxygen conditions. </p>
<p>Long-term effects on growth and stress tolerance from brief exposure to a stimulus are often called priming effects. You can think of this much like <a href="https://chemicalengineeringworld.com/what-is-pump-priming/">priming a pump</a>, where the priming helps get the pump started easier and sooner. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ppl.13881">Studies have looked at how plants grow after priming</a> at various ages and stages of development. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ppl.13881">seed priming</a> with various chemicals and stresses has probably been the most studied because it is easy to carry out, and, if successful, it can be used by farmers. </p>
<h2>How does it work?</h2>
<p>Since <a href="https://scienmag.com/ethylene-boosts-plant-yield-and-vigor/">that first experiment</a>, my lab group has tried to figure out what mechanisms allow for these ethylene-exposed plants to grow larger and tolerate more stress. We’ve found a few potential explanations.</p>
<p>One is that ethylene priming increases photosynthesis, the process plants use to make sugars from light. Part of photosynthesis includes what is called <a href="https://www.biologyonline.com/dictionary/carbon-fixation">carbon fixation</a>, where plants take CO₂ from the atmosphere and use the CO₂ molecules as the building blocks to make the sugars. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CL9A8YhwUps?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">During photosynthesis and carbon fixation, plants take in sunlight and convert it into the sugars that they use to grow.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My lab group showed that there is a large increase in carbon fixation – which means the plants are taking in much more CO₂ from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Correlating with the increase in photosynthesis is a large increase in carbohydrate levels throughout the plant. This includes large increases <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2022.111223">in starch</a>, which is the energy storage molecule in plants, and two sugars, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-050213-040251">sucrose</a> and <a href="https://sciencing.com/what-is-glucose-used-for-in-a-plant-13428304.html">glucose</a>, that provide quick energy for the plants. </p>
<p>More of these molecules in the plant has been linked to both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ppl.13656">increased growth</a> and a better ability for plants to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813066-7.00002-4">withstand stressful conditions</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad216">Our study</a> shows that environmental conditions during germination can have profound and long-lasting effects on plants that could increase both their size and their stress tolerance at the same time. Understanding the mechanisms for this is more important than ever and could help improve crop production to feed the world’s population.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Binder receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>A research accident in the Binder lab at the University of Tennessee led to an unprecedented discovery about how plants respond to a hormone called ethylene.Brad Binder, Professor of Biochemistry & Cellular and Molecular Biology, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168132023-11-02T13:29:11Z2023-11-02T13:29:11ZAmazon a time bomb for the emergence of diseases with pandemic potential – due to deforestation and climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556964/original/file-20231030-17-13jpj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C8256%2C5277&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Historic drought in the Amazon has caused rivers to dry up in the Catalão region (AM)</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/">Cadu Gomes/VPR</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Home to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/05/22/why-the-amazons-biodiversity-is-critical-for-the-globe">the greatest biodiversity on the planet</a>, the Amazon is also a ticking time bomb for the emergence or resurgence of diseases with pandemic potential. This is because environmental degradation and altered landscapes are important factors in this process, which are exacerbated during periods of <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-in-the-amazon-understanding-the-causes-and-the-need-for-an-immediate-action-plan-to-save-the-biome-215650">extreme drought</a>, such as the one now affecting the region.</p>
<p>In the Amazon in particular, the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16990982/">paving of the BR-319 highway</a>, linking Porto Velho to Manaus, is a significant source of concern. Conservative estimates predict that <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/2/823">deforestation around the road will triple</a> in the next 25 years, mainly due to land speculation. This is made worse by the fact that 90% of the area directly affected consists of untouched forest.</p>
<p>And deforestation is not a static situation, but dynamic and unpredictable, resulting in the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357781576_The_New_Transamazonian_Highway_BR-319_and_Its_Current_Environmental_Degradation">fragmentation of forests</a>, increasing the risk of fires and reducing the biodiversity of the affected areas. The association between human action in the Amazon, climate change, disorganised migration and precarious social development creates a favourable environment for the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abo5774">emergence and resurgence of diseases</a>, it has been shown.</p>
<h2>Known diseases…</h2>
<p>This process can happen in different ways. The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59341770">degradation of conserved areas</a> and the diversion of rivers and extreme drought, can, for example, lead to water and food shortages. And this poses a direct threat of malnutrition, affecting the health of local populations and leaving them more vulnerable to known diseases.</p>
<p>Lack of clean water and poor hygiene in drought conditions also increase the <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/foodborne-diseases#tab=tab_1">risk of diseases transmitted by contaminated water and food</a>, such as cholera and hepatitis, and viruses that cause severe diarrhoea, such as rotavirus. Making matters worse, the incidence of diseases associated with poor fish preservation, such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhabdomyolysis">rhabdomyolysis</a> (black urine disease) - which is not infectious - also rises during extreme droughts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/global-warming">Global warming</a> is also a critical factor in this process, allowing an increased presence of mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever">dengue fever</a>. An increase of just a few degrees in the planet’s average temperature can allow them to colonise areas that were previously inaccessible. In regions where they are present, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-70816-2">environmental degradation can increase or decrease rainfall periods</a>, favouring flooding and the maintenance of standing water, and facilitating their proliferation.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4685-GMB-2020-0355">vector-borne diseases are classic cases</a> of outbreaks due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106225">environmental imbalance</a>. The recent <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/58033/yanomami-indigenous-brazil-mining-health-crisis-malnutrition-malaria/">humanitarian crisis of the Yanomami</a>, a tragedy caused by illegal mining, land grabbing and lack of access to health services, is a case in point. In addition to the contamination of water and the environment by mercury, mining activity has created a favourable environment for the reproduction and spread of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/immunology-and-microbiology/anopheles">mosquito species of the genus Anopheles</a>, the transmitter of the protozoan that causes malaria.</p>
<p>This is because digging ravines to extract gold and minerals creates pools of water that act as artificial breeding sites. In addition, mining activity increases the human population in these remote regions, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-022-04381-6">facilitates the spread of malaria</a>. In numerical terms, while between 2008-2012 around 20% of malaria cases occurred in Yanomami territory, between 2018-2022 almost 50% of cases affected this population.</p>
<h2>… and new diseases</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7563794/">Zoonotic diseases</a> (transmitted from animals to people) present an even greater potential problem. While some pathogens (disease-causing agents such as viruses and bacteria) are capable of infecting one or a few host species, others are more generalised and can, if there is contact and opportunity, infect a wide variety of animals.</p>
<p>This type of “jump” from one host to another occurs constantly among animals in their natural habitat, for example from bats to non-human primates, small rodents and other mammals. However, there is usually a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02104">balance in the circulation of these agents</a>.</p>
<p>But when habitats are destroyed, for whatever reason (human or otherwise), local species migrate to more conserved areas in search of food and shelter. And this can lead them to areas close to human settlements – <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2018.0403">and facilitate contact between wild animals and people</a>.</p>
<h2>Impossible to predict, but possible to monitor</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361267/">preventing zoonoses</a> is not an easy task – is no effective method that can predict what the next emerging disease will be, or from where it will emerge.</p>
<p>But it is possible to keep an eye on it. To do this, we monitor the circulation of resistant viruses and bacteria in samples of water, animals and vectors, as well as humans. Animals such as bats, rodents and primates are subjected to next-generation sequencing technologies for early detection of circulating agents that could pose a threat to human health.</p>
<p>And yet it’s not enough. To be effective, surveillance must be constant and cover local and national levels. Although Brazil has the capacity and basic technical infrastructure for this, few actions are actually implemented. In addition to surveillance, we need investments in faster and more accurate diagnostic methods that can help contain the spread of potential new diseases with pandemic potential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216813/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camila M. Romano receives funding from the São Paulo State Research Foundation (FAPESP), project #2022/10408-6, Amazon+10 Initiative</span></em></p>Environmental degradation and altered landscapes, both due to human action and climate change, increase the incidence of already known diseases and the risk of new zoonoses emergingCamila M. Romano, Pesquisadora, Faculdade de Medicina da USP (FMUSP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167322023-11-01T04:25:39Z2023-11-01T04:25:39ZQueensland’s fires are not easing at night. That’s a bad sign for the summer ahead<p>This week, dozens of fires have burned across Queensland. More homes have burned in the state than during the 2019–2020 Black Summer – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-01/queensland-nsw-bushfires-live-updates-weather-bom/102872736">57 so far this year</a>, compared to 49. </p>
<p>The question many are asking is – are these fires normal? Our analysis shows these fires are weird in at least two ways.</p>
<p>First, many more than usual are burning through the night. This is anomalous, as nighttime usually brings lower temperatures and more moisture in the air, slowing or quelling fires. Queensland’s south-east and Western Downs regions are seeing more than five times more nighttime hotspots than average. And second, these fires are early in the season – especially the nighttime fires. </p>
<p>Why? Much of the east coast is now exceptionally dry. The plant regrowth from La Niña rains has dried out and is, in many places, set to burn. It’s still spring, with a long summer ahead. Where there has been rain, such as in eastern Victoria, it has sometimes coincided with intense bushfire. That gave rise to the extremely unusual situation in early October where residents <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/06/bushfires-floods-australia-compound-events-gippsland">grappled with fire one day and flood the next</a>. </p>
<p>Put together, it suggests we may be facing a very bad fire season on the east coast and Tasmania. This is, of course, happening against the drumbeat of global warming, and the extra spike in heating this year caused by El Niño. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="rainfall map of Australia Sept Oct 2023, showing red rainfall deficits almost everywhere" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Rainfall across Australia this spring has been very low almost everywhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s happening in Queensland?</h2>
<p>This spring has been exceptionally dry across most of the Sunshine State. September and October rainfall in the state’s heavily populated south has been close to the lowest on record and certainly in the bottom 10% of years. </p>
<p>This, in turn, has made many areas ready to burn. While there are fires up and down Queensland, most house losses have been within a few hundred kilometres of Brisbane. The town of Tara and surrounding areas has been worst affected. </p>
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<p>How do we know where the fires are? Four times a day, heat-sensing satellites pass over Australia and pinpoint hotspots, where temperatures suddenly jump compared to areas nearby, based on square kilometre tiles. These tell us where the fires are, almost in real time and let us track them as they grow. </p>
<p>To this region, October has brought the third highest number of daytime hotspots seen this century. But it’s the nighttime hotspots that are freakish. Five times more nighttime hotspots than average have been detected compared to previous Octobers. </p>
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<p>Why is that so concerning? Think of it from the firefighters’ point of view. If you know that fires usually ease off at night, you can plan around this reprieve – or even get some rest. But this belief will have to change as the nighttime barrier to fire <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04325-1">weakens around the world</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/faster-disaster-climate-change-fuels-flash-droughts-intense-downpours-and-storms-213242">can speed up how fast droughts happen</a>, in what’s been dubbed “flash drought”. It was not so long ago that Australia’s east coast was seemingly underwater, with record-breaking floods. Now drought is back with a vengeance. </p>
<p>Is south-east Queensland seeing more fire than usual? On the whole, yes. And it’s early – one of the earliest seasons since satellite records began in 2001. </p>
<p>So far, most of the serious fires in this area are burning not through grasslands, as is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/pm/central-australian-fires-burn-across-twice-the-size-of-tasmania-/103028462">happening in Central Australia</a>, but through open forest and woodlands. </p>
<p>Could we see rainforests in Queensland burn, as we did during the Black Summer? It’s possible, but less likely. But we could see some areas which burned during Black Summer along the east coast burn again, though probably not to the same severity. </p>
<p>There’s certainly enough fuel for some areas on the east coast burned by the 2019–20 bushfires to re-burn, such as New South Wales’ coast and the fringes of the Blue Mountains. That would have serious ecological consequences for areas still in recovery if fires returned before seedlings matured. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-flash-drought-an-earth-scientist-explains-194141">What is a flash drought? An earth scientist explains</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Fire scientists are flying blind</h2>
<p>For decades, we’ve known that parts of Australia – the world’s most fire prone continent – would be likely to see more intense and more damaging fires as climate change adds heat and takes away moisture in many regions. </p>
<p>One problem is that we and other professional fire scientists are forced to read the tea leaves from media reports to gauge what’s happening on the ground. </p>
<p>Data on fire progression, fuels and weather are often walled away in government agencies. Firefighters have access, but they are – rightly – focused on the immediate crisis at hand. And insurers have their own data sets on trends in property loss but they are commercially sensitive. </p>
<p>Because there’s no systematic and accessible way to publicise fire data, we end up with a lot of speculation in the media about whether this is a normal or abnormal fire season. </p>
<p>This could be easily fixed with <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/4/160">more investment and coordination</a>. Data from geostationary satellites have revolutionised fire spotting, shifting from six-hourly updates to every ten minutes. </p>
<p>These data and historic data, could and should be made easily available to non-specialists, ideally through either the Bureau of Meteorology or a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02306-4">new agency</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers have a role to play in developing tools to help put this flood of data to use. </p>
<p>If we have better public data sets, we can also more quickly shut down talking points from climate deniers, who might claim “there’s nothing new – Queensland has always burned” or use <a href="https://climatefactchecks.org/bjorn-lomborg-posts-misleading-claim-about-forest-fires-using-data-shown-in-isolation">selective statistics</a> to claim the number of dangerous forest fires on Earth is declining. We can’t adapt as a society if we’re arguing whether the fires really are happening or really are this bad. </p>
<p>If we don’t start to adapt to new fire regimes – and fast – we will face a very real crisis. We could soon see insurers stop offering insurance, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/climate/climate-change-insurance-wildfires-california.html">some have in California</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">'Australia is sleepwalking': a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calum Cunningham receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Williamson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment. </span></em></p>Normally, many bushfires ease overnight, as temperatures fall and moisture in the air rises. But these are not normal times, as Queensland’s early-season fires are showingCalum Cunningham, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of TasmaniaDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaGrant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133022023-10-24T12:23:00Z2023-10-24T12:23:00ZThe Rio Grande isn’t just a border – it’s a river in crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555415/original/file-20231023-23-wax337.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C6%2C4001%2C2257&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Rio Grande, viewed from the Zaragoza International Bridge between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vianey Rueda</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Rio Grande is one of the longest rivers in North America, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Rio-Grande-river-United-States-Mexico">running some 1,900 miles</a> (3,060 kilometers) from the Colorado Rockies southeast to the Gulf of Mexico. It provides fresh water for seven U.S. and Mexican states, and forms the border between Texas and Mexico, where it is known as the Río Bravo del Norte. </p>
<p>The river’s English and Spanish names mean, respectively, “large” and “rough.” But <a href="https://www2.elpasotexas.gov/misc/externally_linked/bridges/cameras.html">viewed from the Zaragoza International Bridge</a>, which connects the cities of El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, what was once mighty is now a dry riverbed, lined ominously with barbed wire. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of the Rio Grande basin, from southwest Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=890&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=890&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555383/original/file-20231023-25-ddks9p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=890&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Rio Grande is one of the largest rivers in the southwest U.S. and northern Mexico. Because of drought and overuse, sections of the river frequently run dry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Grande#/media/File:Riogranderivermap.png">Kmusser/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>In the U.S., people often think of the Rio Grande mainly as a political border that features in negotiations over immigration, narcotics smuggling and trade. But there’s another crisis on the river that receives far less attention. The river is in decline, suffering from overuse, drought and <a href="https://theconversation.com/megadrought-along-border-strains-us-mexico-water-relations-160338">contentious water rights negotiations</a>. </p>
<p>Urban and rural border communities with poor infrastructure, <a href="https://theimmigrationcoalition.com/the-water-problem/">known in Spanish as colonias</a>, are particularly vulnerable to the water crisis. Farmers and cities in <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/16/south-texas-water-drought/">southern Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/21/1112663036/extreme-drought-in-northern-mexico-has-left-millions-of-residents-without-water">northern Mexico</a> are also affected. As researchers who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RJ5WJTsAAAAJ&hl=en">hydrology</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/vianey-rueda-a2825b127/">transboundary water management</a>, we believe managing this important resource requires closer cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico.</p>
<h2>A hidden water crisis</h2>
<p>For nearly 80 years, the U.S. and Mexico have managed and distributed water from the Colorado River and the Lower Rio Grande – from Fort Quitman, Texas, to the Gulf of Mexico – under the <a href="https://www.ibwc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/1944Treaty.pdf">1944 Water Treaty</a>, signed by presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Manuel Avila Camacho. The Colorado River was the <a href="https://uapress.arizona.edu/book/border-water">central focus of treaty negotiations</a> because officials believed the Colorado basin would have more economic activity and population growth, so it would need more water. In fact, however, the Rio Grande basin has also seen significant growth. </p>
<p>For the Rio Grande, the treaty allocates specific shares of water to the U.S. and Mexico from both the river’s main stem and its tributaries in Texas and Mexico. Delivery of water from six Mexican tributaries has become the source of contention. One-third of this flow is allocated to the U.S., and must total some 76 million cubic feet (2.2 million cubic meters) over each five-year period. </p>
<p>The treaty allows Mexico to roll any accrued deficits at the end of a five-year cycle over to the next cycle. Deficits can only be rolled over once, and they must be made up along with the required deliveries for the following five-year period. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ym6m2rZeXPw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers as far north as Colorado rely on water from the Rio Grande for irrigation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These five-year periods, called cycles, are numbered. Cycles 25 (1992-1997) and 26 (1997-2002) were the first time that two consecutive cycles ended in deficit. Like the Colorado River, the Rio Grande <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R43312.pdf">has become over-allocated</a>: The 1944 treaty promises users more water than there is in the river. The main causes are <a href="https://www.ibwc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Exec_Rio_Grande_White_Paper_-Summary-FINAL.pdf">persistent drought</a> and increased water demand on both sides of the border. </p>
<p>Much of this demand was generated by <a href="https://upittpress.org/books/9780822960584/">the 1992 North American Free Trade Agreement</a>, which eliminated most border tariffs between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. From 1993 through 2007, agricultural imports and exports between the U.S. and Mexico quadrupled, and there was extensive expansion of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/maquiladora">maquiladoras</a> – assembly plants along the border. This growth increased water demand.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Mexico delivered more than the required amount for Cycle 27 (2002-2007), plus its incurred deficit from cycles 25 and 26, by transferring water from its reservoirs. This outcome appeased Texas users but left Mexico vulnerable. Since then, Mexico has continued to struggle to meet its treaty responsibilities and has experienced chronic water shortages.</p>
<p>In 2020, a confrontation erupted in the state of Chihuahua between the Mexican National Guard and farmers who believed delivery to Texas of water from the Rio Conchos – one of the six tributaries regulated under the 1944 treaty – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2020/10/14/espanol/america-latina/chihuahua-mexico-pago-agua.html">threatened their survival</a>. In 2022, people lined up at water distribution sites in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/08/09/drought-mexico-water-monterrey/">the Mexican city of Monterrey</a>, where the population had doubled since 1990. As of 2023, halfway through Cycle 36, Mexico has only delivered <a href="https://ibwcsftpstg.blob.core.windows.net/wad/WeeklyReports/Current_Cycle.pdf">some 25% of its targeted amount</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CyltiGPMhxz/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Border politics overshadow water shortages</h2>
<p>As climate change makes the Southwest hotter and drier, scientists predict that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5773">water shortages on the Rio Grande will intensify</a>. In this context, the 1944 treaty pits humanitarian needs for water in the U.S. against those in Mexico. </p>
<p>It also pits the needs of different sectors against one another. Agriculture is the <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/import/mex-pub-borderwater-112921.pdf">dominant water consumer</a> in the region, followed by residential use. When there is a drought, however, the treaty prioritizes residential water use over agriculture. </p>
<p>The Rio Grande is affected by nearly the same hydroclimate conditions as the Colorado River, which flows mainly through the southwest U.S. but ends in Mexico. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/colorado-river-states-bought-time-with-a-3-year-water-conservation-deal-now-they-need-to-think-bigger-206386">drought and water shortages</a> in the Colorado River basin receive much more public attention than the same problems on the Rio Grande. U.S. media outlets cover the Rio Grande almost exclusively when it figures in stories about immigration and river crossings, such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s 2023 decision to install <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/04/mexico-texas-buoys-rio-grande-bodies/">floating barriers</a> in the river at widely used crossing points.</p>
<p>The compact that governs use of Colorado River water has <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-parches-the-southwest-heres-a-better-way-to-share-water-from-the-shrinking-colorado-river-168723">widely recognized flaws</a>: The agreement is 100 years old, allocates more rights to water than the river holds, and completely excludes Native American tribes. However, negotiations over the Colorado between compact states and the U.S. and Mexico are much more focused than decision-making about Rio Grande water, which has to compete with many other bilateral issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dry, cracked mud with mountains in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555441/original/file-20231023-23-ymryd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dry, cracked mud along the banks of the Rio Grande at Big Bend National Park in Texas, March 25, 2011. In the spring and early summer of 2022, up to 75 miles of the river went dry in the park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LaNina/28075c648a3c4faa9284a3312c7c0f36/photo">AP Photo/Mike Graczyk</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Adapting to the future</h2>
<p>As we see it, the 1944 water treaty is inadequate to solve the complex social, economic, hydrological and political challenges that exist today in the Rio Grande basin. We believe it needs revision to reflect modern conditions. </p>
<p>This can be done through the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40170270">minute process</a>, which permits Mexico and the U.S. to adopt legally binding amendments without having to renegotiate the entire agreement. The two countries have already used this process to update the treaty as it pertains to the Colorado River <a href="https://www.ibwc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Minute_319.pdf">in 2012</a> and <a href="https://www.ibwc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Min323.pdf">again in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>These steps allowed the U.S. to adjust its deliveries of Colorado River water to Mexico based on water levels in Lake Mead, the Colorado’s largest reservoir, in ways that proportionally distributed drought impacts between the two countries. In the Rio Grande basin, Mexico does not have similar flexibility. </p>
<p>The U.S. also has the ability to proportionally reduce deliveries under a <a href="https://www.ibwc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/1906Conv.pdf">separate 1906 agreement</a> that outlines water delivery from El Paso to Ciudad Juarez. In 2013, for example, <a href="http://www.cila.gob.mx/rb/asignac1906.pdf">Mexico received only 6%</a> of the water it was due under the 1906 Convention. </p>
<p>Enabling Mexico to proportionally reduce Rio Grande deliveries according to drought conditions would distribute drought and climate change impacts more fairly between both countries. As we see it, this kind of cooperation would deliver human, ecological and political benefits in a complex and contentious region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vianey Rueda received funding through CUAHSI’s Instrumentation Discovery Travel Grant, which helps researchers learn about hydrologic instrumentation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Drew Gronewold does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the Rio Grande figures in US news reports, it’s usually in relation to stories about immigration, drug trafficking or trade. But the river is also an important water source – and it’s shrinking.Vianey Rueda, PhD Student in Resource Ecology Management, University of MichiganDrew Gronewold, Associate Professor of Environment and Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2146202023-10-11T12:30:46Z2023-10-11T12:30:46ZWhat is seawater intrusion? A hydrogeologist explains the shifting balance between fresh and salt water at the coast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552819/original/file-20231009-22-uvy78h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C12%2C4031%2C2683&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In 2022, California built an emergency drought barrier across the West False River near Oakley to protect against saltwater intrusion. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FreshwaterLosingBattleAgainstOcean/0b33666dca68482bb6d393fcf1d0ebdb/photo">AP Photo/Terry Chea</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seawater intrusion is the movement of saline water from the ocean or estuaries into freshwater systems. The seawater that has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/09/27/president-joseph-r-biden-jr-approves-louisiana-emergency-declaration-4/">crept up the Mississippi River</a> in the summer and early fall of 2023 is a reminder that coastal communities teeter in a fragile land-sea balance. </p>
<p>Fresh water is essential for drinking, irrigation and healthy ecosystems. When seawater moves inland, the salt it contains can wreak havoc on farmlands, ecosystems, lives and livelihoods. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,8&q=holly+michael&oq=holly">coastal hydrogeologist</a> and have studied water across the land-sea interface for 25 years. I think of seawater intrusion as being like a seesaw: The place where fresh water and salt water meet is the balance point between forces from land and forces from the sea. </p>
<p>A push from the land side, such as heavy rainfall or high river flows, moves the balance point seaward. A push from the sea side – whether it’s sea-level rise, storm surge or high tides – moves the balance point landward. Droughts or heavy use of fresh water can also cause seawater to move inland. As climate change and population growth stress freshwater supplies, one result will be <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-freshwater-resources">more seawater intrusion</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic of a coastal aquifer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552820/original/file-20231009-17-7xa2ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under natural conditions, fresh water flows underground toward the ocean and keeps seawater from moving into coastal aquifers. Pumping too much groundwater from the aquifer lowers water levels and can draw seawater inland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ca.water.usgs.gov/sustainable-groundwater-management/seawater-intrusion-california.html">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When the ocean moves upriver</h2>
<p>The current seawater intrusion in the lower Mississippi River is due primarily to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/09/29/saltwater-intrusion-louisiana-drinking-water/">drought in the Midwest</a>, which has reduced the river’s volume. Both the magnitude of reduction in river flow and the length of time that the river is low influence how far upriver the salt water moves. As of Oct. 2, 2023, the saltwater “wedge” in the Mississippi had moved <a href="https://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/Missions/Engineering/Stage-and-Hydrologic-Data/SaltwaterWedge/SaltwaterWedgeNow/">nearly 70 miles upstream</a> from the river’s mouth.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-low-water-levels-on-the-mississippi-river-in-2022-show-how-climate-change-is-altering-large-rivers-193920">isn’t the first time</a> that low water on the river has allowed seawater to move inland. But as climate change raises sea levels and causes more severe weather anomalies, intrusion will become more common and will inch farther upstream. </p>
<p>And the problem isn’t unique to the Mississippi. In Delaware, seawater is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.13274">traveling farther up small tidal streams</a> during storms and the highest tides, flooding farmland and killing crops. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t9papp-5QCo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers in Maryland explain how seawater intrusion threatens coastal agriculture.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the Sundarbans of India and Bangladesh – one of the largest coastal mangrove forests in the world – seawater is intruding into the mouth of the Ganges River. The main causes there are upstream dams and water diversions from the river for irrigation and navigability, plus encroachment due to sea-level rise. Seawater intrusion could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-006-0868-8">threaten many types of plants and animals</a> in this <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/798/">UNESCO World Heritage Site</a>, which is home to countless rare and endangered species. </p>
<h2>Invading underground</h2>
<p>Another interface between fresh water and salt water at the coast is less obvious because <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/saltwater-intrusion">it’s underground</a>. Many coastal communities draw their freshwater supply from groundwater – clean water that moves through pore spaces between grains of sand and soil. </p>
<p>Groundwater doesn’t just stop at the coastline: Under the ocean floor, the groundwater is salty, and somewhere between land and the ocean, there is an underground meeting point. It typically is landward of the coastline because salt water is denser than fresh water, so it has a greater force and naturally pushes in. But just as with a river, <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/saltwater-intrusion">that interface moves</a> when groundwater levels drop on land or water levels rise offshore. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/ca-gw-basin-boundary-descriptions">groundwater basins</a> of central and southern California, <a href="https://theconversation.com/drilling-deeper-wells-is-a-band-aid-solution-to-us-groundwater-woes-121219">widespread pumping</a> has caused groundwater levels to drop hundreds of feet in some areas. This is tipping the seesaw and causing groundwater from the sea to move far inland. Accessible groundwater has supported irrigated agriculture in these areas, but now the double hazard of reduced groundwater availability and seawater intrusion <a href="https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/california/topic/climate-vulnerabilities-california-specialty-crops">threatens crops like strawberries and lettuce</a>.</p>
<p>Seawater intrusion into groundwater is happening all over the world, but perhaps the most threatened places are communities on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3128">low-lying islands</a>. Fresh groundwater is often the sole source of water for drinking and irrigation on small islands, and it exists in a thin lens that floats on top of saline groundwater. </p>
<p>The lens can shrink in response to droughts, pumping and sea-level rise. It can also become salty from floodwater infiltration during storms or high tides. </p>
<p>In the Marshall Islands, for example, a combination of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding is predicted to make many islands <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aap9741">uninhabitable by the end of the century</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman pours water from a box into her dog's dish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552822/original/file-20231009-17-622g49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kelli Marinovich fills her dog’s bowl with boxed water at her home in Buras, La., on Oct. 4, 2023. With salt water moving up the Mississippi River, thousands of Plaquemines Parish residents have been living on bottled water and dealing with saltwater intrusion for more than three months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kelli-marinovich-fills-her-dogs-bowl-with-boxed-water-at-news-photo/1712281174">Kathleen Flynn/Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shifting the balance</h2>
<p>As salt water continues to encroach on freshwater systems, there will be consequences. Drinking water that contains even 2% seawater can <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/05/health/louisiana-salt-levels-drinking-water-health/index.html">increase blood pressure and stress kidneys</a>. If salt water gets into supply lines, it can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115153">corrode pipes</a> and produce <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2014.04.021">toxic disinfection by-products</a> in water treatment plants. </p>
<p>Seawater intrusion reduces the life span of roads, bridges and other infrastructure. It has been implicated as a contributor to the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/surfside-condo-collapse-salt-groundwater-rcna16473">Champlain Towers South condominium collapse</a> in Surfside, Florida, in 2021. Seawater intrusion changes ecosystems, creating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2314607120">ghost forests</a> as trees die and marshes move inland.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020851">Smart management</a> can tip the seesaw back toward the sea. Limiting surface water extraction and groundwater pumping, or injecting treated wastewater into vulnerable aquifers, can increase the force pushing against intruding salt water. </p>
<p>Constructing <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/shoreline-armoring.html">seawalls</a> or maintaining <a href="https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/understanding-processes-driving-sand-dune-erosion-and-creation-on-an-atlantic-seashore/">healthy dune systems</a> also can help hold seawater at bay, though these approaches protect only against saltwater flooding and infiltration at the surface, not underground. Pumping out saline groundwater or installing underground barriers can keep deeper salt water from moving inland. </p>
<p>Being proactive is best, because once groundwater is contaminated, it’s hard to remove the salt. If salt water does penetrate inland, communities can manage water quality by constructing <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/desalination">desalination plants</a> and switching to salt-tolerant crops. </p>
<p>Another option is to let nature take its course. Allowing marshes to migrate inland can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068507">compensate for losses at the coastline</a> as sea level rises. This preserves critical habitats, enhances flood protection and stores carbon at rates <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coastal-blue-carbon/">far exceeding most terrestrial ecosystems</a> – dialing back the acceleration of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Michael receives funding from the US National Science Foundation, the US Geological Survey, and the US National Park Service.</span></em></p>Saltwater intrusion is bad for human health, ecosystems, crops and infrastructure. Here’s how seawater can move inland, and why climate change is making this phenomenon more frequent and severe.Holly Michael, Director, Delaware Environmental Institute, and Professor of Earth Sciences and Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137792023-10-09T13:32:18Z2023-10-09T13:32:18ZClimate hazards aren’t restricted by borders – African countries have taken a big step to address this<p>Climate risks can be complex to deal with because they don’t respect country borders. Hazards in one region can have negative repercussions in another. These are known as transboundary climate risks, and they’re a growing concern. They require coordinated, multinational responses, which can be a challenge given the different priorities and capabilities of each country.</p>
<p>A transboundary climate risk could be due to a shared ecosystem, such as a river basin. For instance the Nile river, which flows through 11 countries, can experience variations in water availability due to changes in the weather. This will affect the millions who depend on it. </p>
<p>Transboundary climate risks can also cross continents and oceans and <a href="https://adaptationwithoutborders.org/knowledge-base/adaptation-without-borders/an-african-perspective-on-transboundary-and-cascading-climate-risks">spawn crises</a> on the other side of the world. These could range from <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/drought-food-insecurity-greater-horn-of-africa">food and water shortages</a> to threats to <a href="https://www.sei.org/publications/impacts-on-global-food-trade-networks/">trade</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20221106-crisis-on-the-nile-global-warming-and-overuse-threaten-africa-s-longest-river">energy</a>, widening <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/climate-change-and-inequality-guivarch-mejean-taconet">inequalities</a>, forced <a href="https://adaptationwithoutborders.org/knowledge-base/human-mobility/addressing-the-land-degradation-migration-nexus">migrations</a> and even <a href="https://www.mistra-geopolitics.se/publications/climate-change-trade-and-global-food-security/">geopolitical conflicts</a>. </p>
<p>For instance a drought in East Africa could affect tea production in Kenya. This would lead to an increase in prices for tea drinkers in importing countries, like the UK. Likewise, a typhoon could affect manufacturers in south-east Asia. This could disrupt the supply of electronics to African markets and lead to price hikes or shortages.</p>
<p>Africa is particularly vulnerable. Trade routes, supply chains and shared ecosystems span across the continent. A climate-induced disruption in one country can easily ripple into cascading effects in its neighbours. The coordinated management of transboundary climate risks is both a challenge and a necessity.</p>
<p>At the recent <a href="https://africaclimatesummit.org/">Africa climate summit</a> in Kenya, the African Union and other African stakeholders presented the <a href="https://adaptationwithoutborders.org/knowledge-base/adaptation-without-borders/a-roadmap-for-african-resilience">Roadmap for African Resilience</a> to address this.</p>
<p>The roadmap contains a series of actions meant to enhance coordination between the regional economic communities and member states in addressing and managing transboundary and cascading climate risks. This is an objective of the African Union’s <a href="https://au.int/en/documents/20220628/african-union-climate-change-and-resilient-development-strategy-and-action-plan">Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan 2022–2032</a>.</p>
<p>Historically, adaptation efforts have largely addressed localised impacts, such as rising sea levels and coastal communities or frequent droughts and their impact on agricultural yields.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.sei.org/people/richard-j-t-klein/">expert</a> on adaptation to climate change, I believe that the significance of this roadmap lies in its comprehensive, continent-wide approach. It recognises that shared challenges require shared solutions. And it underscores Africa’s commitment to taking charge of its climate destiny. This makes the roadmap valuable in the evolving discourse on global climate resilience.</p>
<h2>Unified front</h2>
<p>The Roadmap for African Resilience outlines 25 crucial actions to fortify Africa’s resilience against transboundary climate risks. It has a focus on the risks posed to global supply chains, energy and food markets. </p>
<p>The roadmap’s actions can be grouped into four general plans:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Recognise the risks: this includes a pan-African transboundary climate risk assessment and the development of risk indicators.</p></li>
<li><p>Govern together: identify the transboundary risks that each country considers most important. These will be included in different areas of policy.</p></li>
<li><p>Implement Africa-wide adaptation: create a plan to find the best ways to strengthen communities against transboundary climate risks. Just resilience principles are embedded into this, such as prioritising the needs of the most vulnerable people and upholding human rights and cultural values. The roadmap also kickstarts a programme to put these ideas into action.</p></li>
<li><p>Mobilise resources for resilience: getting more money from multiple countries to support climate action, making sure private investments match public goals by emphasising systemic resilience, and building capacity to invest together.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The Roadmap for African Resilience thus offers a holistic, pan-African vision. It not only identifies transboundary climate risks but also proposes a structured approach for collective action. </p>
<p>Implementing the roadmap requires the active involvement of a range of African organisations. These include the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the African Union Commission, the African Union Development Agency – New Partnership for Africa’s Development, the African Group of Negotiators Expert Support and the Regional Economic Communities in Africa. In addition, national governments, the private sector, civil society and academia play crucial roles.</p>
<p>The challenge will lie in ensuring cohesive action among these entities. Especially when adaptation to climate risks is a relatively new endeavour for some of the above organisations.</p>
<h2>Significant step</h2>
<p>The inaugural Africa Climate Summit marked a significant step for Africa’s collective commitment to resilience. The roadmap acknowledges the reality of Africa’s intertwined destinies and the need for collaborative solutions to cross-border climate risks.</p>
<p>Given the borderless nature of climate risks, global cooperation must be at the heart of adaptation initiatives.</p>
<p><em>Brenda Ochola, communications and impact officer with the Stockholm Environment Institute, contributed to the writing of this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard J.T. Klein receives funding from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and the Swedish research council for sustainable development Formas. He is a member of the steering committee of Adaptation Without Borders—a global partnership working to strengthen systemic resilience to cross-border climate impacts. </span></em></p>Transboundary climate risks can cross borders, continents and oceans to affect communities on the other side of the world. Africa’s new roadmap seeks to address this.Richard J.T. Klein, Senior Research Fellow and Team Leader, International Climate Risk and Adaptation, Stockholm Environment InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111072023-10-05T03:16:20Z2023-10-05T03:16:20ZSuicide rates increased after extreme drought in the Murray-Darling Basin – we have to do better as climate change intensifies<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0102-4">impact on mental health of weather extremes</a> such as drought is a growing concern due to climate change.</p>
<p>Rural communities feel the impact of drought much more than urban residents. Our <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007823500240">new research</a> looks at the link between drought and suicide rates in one of Australia’s biggest farming areas, the Murray-Darling Basin. </p>
<p>Drawing on monthly data from 2006 to 2016, our findings were alarming. We found, for instance, that one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with a 32% increase in monthly suicide rates. </p>
<p>Climate change is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">predicted</a> to bring more heat and <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/publications/publication/PIcsiro:EP201750">longer, more extreme droughts</a>. More effective approaches will be needed to prevent suicides in affected regions. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-increases-rural-suicide-and-climate-change-will-make-drought-worse-185392">Drought increases rural suicide, and climate change will make drought worse</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Drought hits rural areas hardest</h2>
<p>Droughts induce <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1801528115">post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression</a>. Hotter temperatures can also <a href="https://www.bcm.edu/news/excessive-heat-and-its-impact-on-mental-health#:%7E:text=Heat%20alters%20those%20behaviors%20because,levels%20of%20stress%20and%20fatigue.">reduce levels of the brain chemical serotonin</a>. This has negative effects on the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-019-05252-5">central nervous system and moods</a>. </p>
<p>In Australia, suicide is a <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release#key-statistics">leading cause of death</a> – especially for people aged 18-44. And the suicide rate in remote areas is <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/MentalHealthServices/Report">almost double that of major cities</a>. This is because drought can:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24721393">reduce agricultural production</a><br></li>
<li><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12218">increase financial hardship</a></li>
<li><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1080/10398560701701288">degrade the environment</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0102-4">reduce employment</a>. </li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0222-x">Research overseas</a> found suicide rates rise with higher average temperatures. In Australia, a study found some evidence linking <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1112965109">drought and suicide</a> in New South Wales. However, a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1440-1584.2011.01244.x?saml_referrer">Victorian study</a> found no significant association.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-drought-covid-why-rural-australians-mental-health-is-taking-a-battering-148724">Bushfires, drought, COVID: why rural Australians' mental health is taking a battering</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What happened in the basin?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007823500240">Our study</a> looked at the Murray-Darling Basin. The region went through one of the worst droughts on record, the Millennium Drought, over the past couple of decades. </p>
<p>We analysed local area monthly data from 2006-16. We wanted to see whether worsening drought and heat were linked to higher monthly suicide rates, by examining differing types of droughts (moderate to extreme). </p>
<p>The map below shows the average suicide rate for 2006-2016 in local areas across the basin. Male suicide rates were over three times female rates.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average suicide rate per 100,000 by local area in the Murray Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007823500240">Source: Xu et al (2023) using data from National Cause of Death Unit Record File from Australian Coordinating Registry (2006-2016) and ABS Population Census, 2006, 2011, 2016</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We sought to control for as many local area characteristics as possible. Our modelling included unemployment, income, education, proportion of farmers, proportion of Indigenous people, health professionals, green space and various climate and drought variables. We modelled suicide rates for different age and gender sub-groups. </p>
<p>Key findings include:</p>
<ul>
<li>one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with the total suicide rate increasing by 32%</li>
<li>one more month of moderate drought in the previous 12 months was very weakly associated with a 2% increase in the suicide rate</li>
<li>a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature in the previous 12 months was associated with up to an 8% increase in the suicide rate </li>
<li>in males and younger age groups, suicide rates are more strongly associated with extreme drought and higher temperatures</li>
<li>a higher proportion of farmers in a local area was associated with an increased suicide rate </li>
<li>a higher proportion of First Nations people in a local area was also associated with higher suicide rates</li>
<li>more green space was significantly associated with moderating impacts of both extreme drought and temperature on suicide rates</li>
<li>an increase in average annual household income moderated the relationship between higher temperature and suicide.</li>
</ul>
<p>Our results suggest the association between moderate drought and suicide rates is significant but the effect was small. As the drought becomes extreme, suicide rates increase significantly. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-findings-show-a-direct-causal-relationship-between-unemployment-and-suicide-209486">New findings show a direct causal relationship between unemployment and suicide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do better to prevent suicides?</h2>
<p>Given drought’s impact on farm production and finances, mental health will clearly get worse in rural areas if the impacts of climate change are not better managed. </p>
<p>Mental health interventions to prevent suicide in <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/13/7855">rural areas</a> are different from what’s needed in urban areas. Areas in the basin with higher percentages of farmers and First Nations people were hot spots. These areas may need special intervention. </p>
<p>Many have emphasised the need for a <a href="https://www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/The-National-Suicide-Prevention-Trials-Insights-and-Impact_Jan-2021-V3.pdf">systems approach to suicide prevention</a>. Actions need to be multifaceted and co-ordinated as well as possible. One intervention or approach is not enough. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hairdressers-in-rural-australia-end-up-being-counsellors-too-70275">Hairdressers in rural Australia end up being counsellors too</a>
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<p>Interventions in the bush range from telehealth and medical services to <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-mental-health-program">primary health networks services</a>, <a href="https://mensshed.org/">men’s sheds</a> and drought counselling. </p>
<p>The relationship between <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2018/209/4/drought-related-stress-among-farmers-findings-australian-rural-mental-health">drought and financial hardship</a> seems to be key in farming areas. This points to the need for other forms of income on the farm, including from native vegetation and carbon credits. Work can also be done to promote drought preparedness, increase appropriate regional economic, social development and environmental policies and – where necessary – help people leave farming. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Ann Wheeler has received funding from the Australian Research Council; GRDC; Wine Australia; MDBA; CRC Food Waste; CSIRO; Goyder Institute; SA Department of Environment and Water; ACCC; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NSW Health; Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water; Meat and Livestock Australia; ACIAR; RIRDC; UNECE; NCCARF; National Water Commission; and the Government of Netherlands.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alec Zuo receives funding from the Australian Research Council, GRDC, ACCC, NSW Health, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ACIAR, NCCARF, and the National Water Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ying Xu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Suicide rates jumped in the Murray Darling Basin following extreme drought and hotter temperatures, a new study shows. The findings highlight the need for action to manage climate change impacts.Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of AdelaideAlec Zuo, Associate Professor, School of Economics and Public Policy, University of AdelaideYing Xu, Research Fellow, School of Economics and Public Policy, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145772023-10-02T19:12:09Z2023-10-02T19:12:09ZFire authorities are better prepared for this summer. The question now is – are you?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551324/original/file-20231002-15-d4sb4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4281%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last year, campers had to evacuate <a href="https://www.thegreynomads.com.au/caves-2/">because of floods</a>. This year, they’re evacuating because of fire. Over Victoria’s long weekend, campers and residents in Gippsland had to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-01/gippsland-fires-burn-briagolong-loch-sport-erica/102922014">flee fast-moving fires</a>, driven by high winds. </p>
<p>The megafires of the 2019–2020 Black Summer came off the back of an earlier El Niño climate cycle. Now, after three years of rain and floods, El Niño is arriving on Australian shores again. With it comes fire weather – hot, dry and windy. </p>
<p>The question is – <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2023/09/30/climate-change-and-the-fire-season-ahead#mtr">are we ready?</a> </p>
<p>Last week, emergency management minister Murray Watt moved to reassure an anxious country. “Australia is much better prepared for this season than we were heading into Black Summer,” he said, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-24/australia-better-prepared-for-bushfire-threat-than-black-summer/102895018">speaking after</a> a national summit on disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>Yes, authorities are better prepared. But by and large, we as individuals are not. Far too often, Australians think it’s the job of the authorities to be ready, which breeds a false sense of security. </p>
<h2>This fire season may pack a punch</h2>
<p>The Black Summer bushfires of the 2019–20 summer were a stark reminder of how fire prone Australia is. But they were more than that – they <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">were not normal</a>. Around 20% of all of our forests went up in flame. </p>
<p>2019 was the <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2019-2019-was-australias-hottest-and-driest-year-on-record/#:%7E:text=Last%20year%20was%20Australia's%20hottest,are%20the%20worst%20on%20record.">hottest and driest</a> year on record for Australia. But 2023 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/01/australia-records-warmest-winter-caused-by-global-heating-and-sunny-conditions">may break that record</a>, as climate records topple around the world and extreme weather events multiply. This year is likely to be the hottest on record globally, and next year the record <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-the-return-of-el-nino-means/#:%7E:text=Looking%20ahead%20%E2%80%93%20with%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o,above%20the%20pre%2Dindustrial%20average">may well fall again</a>. </p>
<p>Sustained rain from three successive La Niña years has driven widespread vegetation growth across Australia’s 125 million hectares of forest, bush and grasslands. Over the coming weeks, many areas could dry out quickly and become tinder for bushfires. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here's how to prepare</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Climate cycles do give us time to prepare</h2>
<p>Australia’s wet-dry climate cycles have one benefit – during wet years, fire authorities get a reprieve. That lets governments, emergency services and the community <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/bushfire-royal-commission-revisited-after-el-nino-weather/102880144">coordinate, plan and prepare</a> for bushfire seasons ahead. </p>
<p>That’s why Minister Watt can accurately claim Australia is better prepared. The capacity and capability of our emergency services to predict the spread of fires and issue timely warnings to communities is better than it has ever been. In planning and preparedness for natural hazards such as bushfires and floods, we have seen <a href="https://nema.gov.au/about-us/media-centre/Preparedness-Summit-250923">better integration</a> between government, emergency services, civil and private sector organisations.</p>
<p>Planned burning is still a challenge. It’s tough to find the right weather conditions to burn off fuel loads at low intensity, without risking the blaze spreading or threatening property. </p>
<p>But these burns are done much more <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-searching-for-objectivity-in-burning/">strategically these days</a>. Rather than simply aim to hit a target of hectares burned, authorities are now focused on burning fuel in areas where it could endanger lives and damage critical infrastructure during bushfire season.</p>
<p>These advances give us good reason for confidence. But not for complacency. </p>
<p>Every bushfire is unique. And our fires are, by and large, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">getting worse</a>. It would be an error to think our investment in <a href="https://reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/fighting-fires-from-space-how-satellites-and-other-tech-could-prevent-catastrophic-bushfires">smoke-detecting algorithms and satellite monitoring</a> and the development of the new <a href="https://afdrs.com.au/">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> will spare Australia from the loss of life, property and environmental destruction observed during the Black Summer fires. </p>
<p>Why? Decades of bushfires have shown even the best preparation can be found wanting on days of severe bushfire danger when firestorms can develop quickly and behave unpredictably.</p>
<h2>For Australia to be ready, you need to be ready</h2>
<p>While megafires happen – and draw the most headlines – most bushfires are local rather than national events. </p>
<p>That means we must prepare at a local level.</p>
<p>If you’re faced with a bushfire threat, you have only <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12592">two options</a>. </p>
<p>You can stay and defend your property – as long as you are physically and mentally prepared, have adequate firefighting resources, and your property is prepared and defensible. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689">Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why</a>
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<hr>
<p>Or you can leave early, which means making a judgement call about the best time to go in a calm manner. That doesn’t mean panic – if there is time, it can be possible to do things like clear fuels from around the home and dampen the surrounds to give your house a better chance of surviving undefended.</p>
<p>Which should you choose? It depends, in part, on where you live and your personal circumstances. Remember too that most Australians will never experience a bushfire firsthand. </p>
<p>Every community has a different risk profile and people and communities vary considerably in their levels of preparedness and planning. </p>
<p>If a fire does start and head towards your house, you could be taken entirely by surprise if you have no bushfire plan. </p>
<p>To be clear, this is arguably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962#:%7E:text=Under%20Catastrophic%20fire%20conditions%20all,of%20bushfires%20and%20their%20unpredictability.">largest gap</a> in Australia’s fire preparedness. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="burned forest near road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Which way out? Planning ahead could save your life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Planning is easy – if done ahead</h2>
<p>The question of whether Australia is ready for the fire season should be reframed. The better question is: are Australians ready? </p>
<p>The good news is, it’s easier than you think to make a fire plan. As a household, it might take just 10 minutes. Your state or territory government has a website showing you how: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/your-bushfire-plan">Victoria</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/resources/bush-fire-survival-plan">New South Wales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://bushfire-survival-plan.qfes.qld.gov.au/">Queensland</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-a-fire-be-prepared/make-a-plan/5-minute-bushfire-plan/">South Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://mybushfireplan.wa.gov.au/">Western Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://esa.act.gov.au/cbr-be-emergency-ready/bushfires/bushfire-ready">Australian Capital Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://securent.nt.gov.au/prepare-for-an-emergency/fires/bushfires/survival-plans">Northern Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colbushfirePrepareActSurvive&fbclid=IwAR1mRkwm89K_SlAnUXUm0LYwAQ7Hc8moJ7c9AoNgkmdPVDxxIPx7WMLJzvk">Tasmania</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Why plan ahead? Because it is vastly better to have a clear plan at your fingertips rather than frantically trying to figure out where your loved ones are, whether it’s too late to leave and whether you could realistically fight the fire – when the fire is on your doorstep. Faced by the reality of fire, many of us can freeze. </p>
<p>What firefighters <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes-128632">want us to learn</a> is that the critical decisions and actions which save lives and property in a bushfire are taken by us and our communities, not by politicians or agencies. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Australia's Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>John Schauble contributed significantly to this article. He has worked extensively in bushfire policy and research at state level and has volunteered for over 40 years as a firefighter.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Dwyer receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Many people are asking if Australian authorities are ready for the fire season. The real question to ask is – are we ready as individuals?Graham Dwyer, Course Director, Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124922023-09-13T10:55:07Z2023-09-13T10:55:07ZAddis Ababa faces growing climate change risks like heat, drought and floods, study warns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545484/original/file-20230830-19-8bq04m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5000%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">About 70% of people in Addis Ababa live in informal settlements that are vulnerable to climate change. Amanuel Sileshi/AFP/</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/muslim-devotees-gather-at-meskel-square-to-break-their-fast-news-photo/1240330823?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital city, will likely face increased heatwaves, droughts and severe flooding over the next 67 years. These changes will pose risks to public health and infrastructure. They’ll also be felt most acutely by the city’s most vulnerable residents: those living in informal settlements. </p>
<p>Addis Ababa is one of the fastest-growing cities in Africa, and its current metropolitan population of about 5.4 million is projected to reach close to <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/addis-ababa-population">9 million</a> by 2035.</p>
<p>This increase in the city’s population will be absorbed by informal settlements, the prime destination for most migrants. And informal settlements are characterised by poor or non-existent infrastructure, and face the twin challenges of worsening climate change and poor urban environmental policy.</p>
<p>To investigate the city’s vulnerability to climate change, researchers at <a href="https://www.climatepolicylab.org/">Tufts University</a> and the <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/">Woodwell Climate Research Center</a> analysed flood risk and temperature data for different time periods, projecting from the past to the future.</p>
<p>We predicted that the city’s extreme daily maximum temperatures would increase by about <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">1.7°C over the period 2040-2060</a>, compared with 2000–2020. An increase of 1.7°C would result in a <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827">rise</a> in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves. In addition, higher temperatures contribute to increased water vapour and transpiration. This will <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf#page=16">threaten</a> health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods, and food supplies.</p>
<p>Certain southern neighbourhoods, such as <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">Akaki-Kaliti, Bole and Nifas Silk-Lafto</a>, have experienced notably higher temperatures, especially during the warm season from March to May. And, looking to the future, temperature projections for <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">Nifas Silk-Lafto suggest an average temperature increase to 26.21°C between 2040 and 2060, and further increase to 27.78°C from 2070 to 2090</a> and <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">27.78°C from 2070 to 2090</a>. </p>
<p>For the warm-season months of March, April, and May, a temperature increase of 1.8°C is projected. This suggests that the peak temperature for the hottest day of the year will rise by an average of 1.8°C compared to recent data. From 2000 to 2020 the average temperature in the Nifas Silk-Lafto sub-city was 24.70°C. </p>
<p>Increases in temperatures of this magnitude will lead to public health challenges such as increased malaria risks, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups like the elderly, children, and women.</p>
<h2>More droughts</h2>
<p>Over the past two decades, Addis Ababa has endured an average of three months of extreme drought yearly. Using the <a href="https://www.droughtmanagement.info/palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi/">Palmer Drought Severity Index</a> to assess temperature and precipitation data in a geographical area, our analysis suggests that extreme drought events will become more frequent between 2040 and 2060. The city is expected to experience an additional 1.6 months of extreme drought annually, a 53% increase compared with 2000-2020. </p>
<p>This rising frequency of droughts, along with the city’s growing population, is intensifying water insecurity. Groundwater reserves for drought emergencies are already being <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tqem.21512">depleted</a>. </p>
<p>These droughts will affect health, hydroelectric energy production and urban agriculture. </p>
<h2>Flooding</h2>
<p>Too much rainfall, particularly if it occurs within a short period of time in an urban area, leads to flooding. Flooding poses a significant environmental risk to Addis Ababa, especially because the city has developed around three primary rivers. </p>
<p>Climate change will increase water-related challenges by affecting the flow of rivers and the replenishment of groundwater. </p>
<p>Currently, <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">67%</a> of the population in Addis lives in flood prone areas. The parts of the city that are most at risk include central Addis, which has the greatest density of impervious surfaces like tarmac and concrete. These contribute to flood risk because water can’t seep into the ground.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">parts of the city that are at risk</a> include the southern half – where the slope is relatively flatter, so water doesn’t flow away – and the Nifas Silk-Lafto region, where considerable development has taken place in the floodplain. </p>
<p>Several factors will add to the flooding challenge. The city has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581819301843">inadequate sewerage infrastructure</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jfr3.12629">weak drainage systems</a> which are often obstructed by solid waste. </p>
<h2>The impact</h2>
<p>The effects on the city’s residents will be substantial. </p>
<p>Health is just one example. </p>
<p>Our data show that average temperatures in the city will make year-round <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.2003489#:%7E:text=This%20model%20suggests%20a%20temperature,climate%20change%20on%20malaria%20transmission">malaria transmission</a> a risk. There will have to be sustained policy measures to deal with the risk.</p>
<p>Older adults and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. The elderly are more <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/climate-change/impact-climate-change-rights-older-persons">sensitive</a> to heat and pollution due to existing health conditions, limited mobility, and compromised immune systems. Pregnant women face <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0015028222003831">risks</a> from thermal variations and mosquito-borne illnesses like malaria and Zika. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-cause-more-african-children-to-die-from-hot-weather-188609">Climate change will cause more African children to die from hot weather</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many urban residents will be prone to increasing floods. Already <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">10%</a> of the city’s newly developed areas are within a 100-year floodplain, threatening lives and infrastructures.</p>
<p>People living in informal settlements are particularly at risk – that’s about <a href="https://unhabitat.org/ethiopia-addis-ababa-urban-profile">70%</a> of Addis Ababa’s residents. These settlements crop up in limited and unused spaces, such as riverbanks. They are at a higher <a href="https://gsdrc.org/topic-guides/urban-governance/key-policy-challenges/informal-settlements/">risk</a> of flood impact, and the risk is growing.</p>
<p>Our data shows that currently the percentage difference in vulnerability between formal and informal settlements is <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">0.6%</a>. The figure illustrates the extent to which buildings within formal and informal settlements would be affected by flooding events. It is expected to rise to <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/climate-risk-assessment-addis-ababa-ethiopia/">1.3% by 2050 and 1.6% by 2080</a>. </p>
<h2>Policy recommendations</h2>
<p>There’s an urgent need for policies that can rise to these challenges. We suggest:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the government should establish a climate adaptation and resilience office, to integrate <a href="https://www.c2es.org/document/what-is-climate-resilience-and-why-does-it-matter/">climate resilience</a> into <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-towns-climate-strategy-isnt-perfect-but-every-african-city-should-have-one-149287">urban planning</a></p></li>
<li><p>an independent body should then assess policies in practice</p></li>
<li><p>a water management strategy to ensure equitable access and sustainable <a href="https://waterfdn.org/sustainable-water-management-swm-profile/#:%7E:text=Sustainable%20water%20management%20means%20using,those%20needs%20in%20the%20future.">use of water</a></p></li>
<li><p>the city should invest in <a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/nature-and-biodiversity/green-infrastructure_en">green infrastructure</a> </p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-climate-finance-leaves-out-cities-fixing-it-is-critical-to-battling-climate-change-194375">Global climate finance leaves out cities: fixing it is critical to battling climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<ul>
<li><p>upgrading infrastructure and improving waste management</p></li>
<li><p>public awareness campaigns and <a href="https://www.unesco.org/en/climate-change/education#:%7E:text=Education%20is%20crucial%20to%20promote,act%20as%20agents%20of%20change.">school</a> education on climate change impacts</p></li>
<li><p>developing mechanisms for effective <a href="https://coastadapt.com.au/how-to-pages/collaboration-and-partnerships-climate-change-adaptation">collaboration</a> among government departments, non-governmental organisations and international agencies.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abay Yimere does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is putting pressure on Ethiopia’s largest city, Addis Ababa, and exposing people to disease and natural disasters.Abay Yimere, Postdoctoral Scholar in International Environment and Resource Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2128162023-09-12T12:29:30Z2023-09-12T12:29:30ZWhat Arizona and other drought-ridden states can learn from Israel’s pioneering water strategy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546411/original/file-20230905-364-hcc2rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5491%2C3655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Suburban development in Maricopa County, Arizona, with lakes, lush golf courses and water-guzzling lawns. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-suburban-development-named-ocotillo-in-news-photo/1410152052">Wild Horizon/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Arizona is one of the <a href="https://www.prb.org/resources/growth-and-migration-in-the-american-southwest-a-tale-of-two-states/">fastest-growing states in the U.S.</a>, with an economy that offers many opportunities for workers and businesses. But it faces a daunting challenge: a water crisis that could seriously constrain its economic growth and vitality. </p>
<p>A recent report that projected <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/arizona-water-development-desert.html">a roughly 4% shortfall in groundwater supplies</a> in the Phoenix area over the next 100 years prompted the state to <a href="https://www.azwater.gov/phoenix-ama-groundwater-supply-updates">curtail new approval</a> of groundwater-dependent residential development in some of the region’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/arizona-colorado-river-drought-climate-change-groundwater-52860198c654d7308137c6c7836707f4">fast-growing suburbs</a>. Moreover, negotiations continue over <a href="https://www.azwater.com/colorado-river-updates/">dwindling supplies from the Colorado River</a>, which historically supplied more than a third of the state’s water. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of the full Colorado River watershed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547337/original/file-20230910-41058-sbig07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Colorado River’s watershed extends across seven U.S. states and into Mexico. Use of river water is governed by a compact negotiated in 1922.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/perspectives-map.pdf">Center for Colorado River Studies</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a partial solution, the <a href="https://www.azwifa.gov/">Arizona Water Infrastructure Finance Authority</a> is exploring a proposal to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/climate/arizona-desalination-water-climate.html">import desalinated water from Mexico</a>. Conceptualized by <a href="https://ide-tech.com/en/">IDE, an Israeli company</a> with extensive experience in the desalination sector, this mega-engineering project calls for building a plant in Mexico and piping the water about 200 miles and uphill more than 2,000 feet to Arizona. </p>
<p>Ultimately, the project is slated to <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2022/12/21/arizona-piping-mexico-water-desalination-colorado-river-dwindles/69745907007/">cost more than US$5 billion</a> and provide fresh water at nearly 10 times the cost of water Arizona currently draws from the Colorado River, not including long-term energy and maintenance costs. </p>
<p>Is this a wise investment? It is hard to say, since details are still forthcoming. It is also unclear how the proposal fits with Arizona’s plans for investing in its water supplies – because, unlike some states, Arizona has no state water plan.</p>
<p>As researchers who focus on water <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kYqOHrMAAAAJ&hl=en">law</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sharon-Megdal">policy</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JZBqTFcAAAAJ&hl=en">management</a>, we recommend engineered projects like this one be considered as part of a broader water management portfolio that responds holistically to imbalances in supply and demand. And such decisions should address known and potential consequences and costs down the road. Israel’s approach to desalination offers insights that Arizona would do well to consider.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6sidQzMicXY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A 20-year drought in the Colorado River basin poses critical questions for Arizona’s water future.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lands and waters at risk</h2>
<p>Around the world, water engineering projects have caused large-scale ecological damage that governments now are spending heavily to repair. Draining and straightening <a href="https://www.evergladesrestoration.gov/restoration-program-overview">the Florida Everglades</a> in the 1950s and ′60s, which seriously harmed water quality and wildlife, is one well-known example. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps showing historic, current and planned water flows in south Florida" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546421/original/file-20230905-27-4191x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">State and federal agencies are spending billions of dollars to restore the Everglades, reversing water control projects from 1948-1963 that channelized and drained these enormous wetlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/earth-systems/blog/tell-me-about-everglades-restoration/">US Army Corps of Engineers/Florida Museum</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Israel’s <a href="https://en.parks.org.il/reserve-park/hula-nature-reserve/">Hula wetlands</a> is another. In the 1950s, Israeli water managers viewed the wetlands north of the Sea of Galilee as a malaria-infested swamp that, if drained, would eradicate mosquitoes and open up the area for farming. The project was an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/12/05/world/israel-restoring-drained-wetland-reversing-pioneers-feat.html">unmitigated failure</a> that led to dust storms, land degradation and the loss of many unique animals and plants.</p>
<p>Arizona is in crisis now due to a combination of water management gaps and climatic changes. Groundwater withdrawals, which in much of rural Arizona remain unregulated, include unchecked pumping by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/16/fondomonte-arizona-drought-saudi-farm-water/">foreign agricultural interests</a> that ship their crops overseas. Moreover, with the Colorado River now in its <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-colorado-river-drought-crisis-5-essential-reads-203651">23rd year of drought</a>, Arizona is being forced to reduce its dependence on the river and <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06052023/arizona-water-sources-drought/">seek new water sources</a>.</p>
<p>The desalination plant that Arizona is considering would be built in Puerto Peñasco, a Mexican resort town on the northern edge of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Gulf-of-California">Gulf of California</a>, also known as the Sea of Cortez. Highly saline brine left over from the desalination process would be released into the gulf. </p>
<p>Because this inlet has an elongated, baylike geography, salt could concentrate in its upper region, harming endangered aquatic species such as <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/totoaba">the totoaba fish</a> and the vaquita porpoise, <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/vaquita">the world’s most endangered marine mammal</a>. </p>
<p>The pipeline that would carry desalinated water to Arizona would cross through <a href="https://www.nps.gov/orpi/index.htm">Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument</a>, a fragile desert ecosystem and UNESCO biosphere reserve that has already been damaged by <a href="https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/border-wall-damage-water-west/">construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall</a>. To run the facility, IDE proposes to build a power plant in Arizona and lay transmission lines across the same fragile desert. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing location of proposed plant and pipeline route." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546875/original/file-20230907-23-qmvgk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed desalination plant in Mexico would pipe fresh water 200 miles to Arizona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.enr.com/articles/55659-arizona-advances-55b-mexico-desalination-plant-proposal">Water Infrastructure Finance Authority of Arizona/ENR Southwest</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>No single solution</h2>
<p>Israel has adapted to water scarcity and has learned from its disastrous venture in the Hula wetlands. Today the country has a <a href="https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/isr204034.pdf">water sector master plan</a> that is regularly updated and draws on water recycling and reuse, as well as a significant desalination program.</p>
<p>Israel also has implemented extensive water conservation, efficiency and recycling programs, as well as a broad economic review of desalination. Together, these sources now meet most of the nation’s water needs, and Israel has become a leader in both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.3193">water technology and policy innovation</a>. </p>
<p>Water rights and laws in Arizona differ from those of Israel, and Arizona isn’t as close to seawater. Nonetheless, in our view Israel’s approach is relevant as Arizona works to close its water demand-supply gap. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A worker in a hard hat surrounded by valves, adjusting one." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546419/original/file-20230905-25-wwtu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A worker at the Sorek seawater desalination plant south of Tel Aviv, Israel, which provides 20% of the nation’s municipal water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/worker-is-seen-at-the-sorek-desalination-plant-in-palmachim-news-photo/1236763628">Gil Cohen Magen/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Steps Arizona can take now</h2>
<p>In our view, Arizona would do well to follow Israel’s lead. A logical first step would be making conservation programs, which are <a href="https://new.azwater.gov/conservation">required in some parts of Arizona</a>, mandatory statewide. </p>
<p>Irrigated agriculture uses <a href="https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts">more than 70% of Arizona’s water supply</a>, and most of the state’s irrigated lands use <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/edu/irmethods.html">flood irrigation</a> – pumping or bringing water into fields and letting it flow over the ground. Greater use of <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/edu/irmethods.html">drip irrigation</a>, which delivers water to plant roots through plastic pipes, and other water-saving techniques and technologies would reduce agricultural water use. </p>
<p>Arizona households, which sometimes use as much as 70% of residential water for <a href="https://www.waterforarizona.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investing-in-Arizonas-Water-final.pdf">lawns and landscaping</a>, also have a conservation role to play. And the mining sector’s groundwater use presently is <a href="https://nativenewsonline.net/opinion/arizona-must-stop-the-400b-giveaway-of-groundwater-to-the-world-s-largest-foreign-based-mining-companies">largely exempt from state regulations and withdrawal restrictions</a>. </p>
<p>A proactive and holistic water management approach should apply to all sectors of the economy, including industry. Arizona also should continue to expand programs for agricultural, municipal and industrial <a href="https://wrrc.arizona.edu/reuse-whats-in-store">wastewater reuse</a>. </p>
<p>Desalination need not be off the table. But, as in Israel, we see it as part of <a href="https://rnrf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/RRJV37N3.pdf">a multifaceted and integrated series of solutions</a>. By exploring the economic, technical and environmental feasibility of alternative solutions, Arizona could develop a water portfolio that would be far more likely than massive investments in seawater desalination to achieve the sustainable and secure water future that the state seeks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212816/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Lipchin is affiliated with the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Eckstein and Sharon B. Megdal do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Arizona is considering a multibillion-dollar desalination project to address its urgent water needs. Three water experts call for a go-slow approach and point to Israel as a role model.Gabriel Eckstein, Professor of Law, Texas A&M UniversityClive Lipchin, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Studies, Tel Aviv UniversitySharon B. Megdal, Professor of Environmental Science and Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2132422023-09-12T06:59:23Z2023-09-12T06:59:23ZFaster disaster: climate change fuels ‘flash droughts’, intense downpours and storms<p>The run of extreme weather events around the world seems to be never-ending. After the northern summer of extreme heat and disastrous fires, we’ve seen more exceptional autumn weather over Europe with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66743788">record-breaking heat</a> in the UK. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, record-breaking rain and intense flash floods <a href="https://theconversation.com/greeces-record-rainfall-and-flash-floods-are-part-of-a-trend-across-the-mediterranean-the-weather-is-becoming-more-dangerous-213164">struck Greece</a> before the same storm <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/powerful-storm-rolls-through-eastern-libya-killing-least-three-2023-09-11/">devastated Libya</a>, with thousands dead. </p>
<p>Almost 20% of Africa is estimated to be <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-drought/202307">in drought</a>, and drought conditions <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/#:%7E:text=For%20the%204%2Dmonth%20period,area%20in%20south%2Deastern%20Queensland.">are returning</a> to parts of Australia. To top it off, we’ve seen several hurricanes intensify <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/hurricane-lees-hyper-intensification-in-atlantic-is-rewriting-rules-for-powerful-storms/3131529/">unusually quickly</a> in the Atlantic.</p>
<p>We know climate change underpins some of the more extreme weather we’re seeing. But is it also pushing these extreme events to happen faster? </p>
<p>The answer? Generally, yes. Here’s how.</p>
<h2>Flash droughts</h2>
<p>We usually think of droughts as slowly evolving extreme events which take months to form. </p>
<p>But that’s no longer a given. We’ve seen some recent droughts develop unexpectedly quickly, giving rise to the phrase “<a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286">flash drought</a>”. </p>
<p>How does this happen? It’s when a lack of rainfall in a region combines with high temperatures and sunny conditions with low humidity. When these conditions are in place, it increases how much moisture the atmosphere is trying to pull from the land through evaporation. The end result: faster drying-out of the ground. </p>
<p>Flash droughts tend to be short, so they don’t tend to cause the major water shortages or dry river beds we’ve seen during long droughts in parts of Australia and <a href="https://time.com/cape-town-south-africa-water-crisis/">South Africa</a>, for example. But they can cause real problems for farmers. Farmers in parts of <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/drought-confronts-parts-of-australia-ecologists-are-back-on-alert">eastern Australia</a> are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-10/drought-conditions-in-hunter-valley-sees-farmers-destocking/102702548">already grappling</a> with the sudden return of drought after three years of rainy La Niña conditions. </p>
<p>As we continue to warm the planet, we’ll see more flash droughts and more intense ones. That’s because dry conditions will more often coincide with higher temperatures as relative humidity falls across many land regions.</p>
<h2>Flash floods and extreme rainfall</h2>
<p>Climate change can cause increased rainfall variability. Some parts of the world will get a lot wetter, on average, while others will get drier, increasing the variation in rainfall between different regions. For Australia, most locations are generally expected to have intensified downpours of rain, as well as intensified droughts. So we might be saying more often “it doesn’t rain, it pours!”.</p>
<p>We’re seeing exceptionally extreme rainfall in many recent events. The recent floods that submerged villages in Greece came from a sudden downpour of over 500 millimetres in a single day. Hong Kong was hit last week by the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66748239">heaviest rains</a> in 140 years, flooding subway stations and turning streets into rivers. </p>
<p>But why does it happen so quickly? </p>
<p>Sudden extreme rains fall when we have very moist air coupled with a weather system that forces air to rise. </p>
<p>We’ve long known human-caused climate change is increasing how much moisture the air can hold generally, rising by about 7% per degree of global warming. That means storms now have the potential to hold and dump more water. </p>
<p>Notably, the impact of climate change on rain-bearing weather systems can vary by region, which makes the picture <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-why-climate-change-isnt-always-to-blame-for-extreme-rainfall-206958">more complicated</a>. That means, for instance, climate change may lead to more extreme rain in some places, while other places may only see an intensification in really short extreme rain events and not for longer timescales.</p>
<p>We can safely say, though, that in most parts of the world, we’re seeing more intense storms and sudden extreme rainfall. Sudden dumps of rain drive flash floods. </p>
<p>More moisture in the air helps fuel more intense convection, where warm air masses rise and form clouds. In turn, this can trigger efficient, quick and intense dumps of rain <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05167-9">from thunderstorms</a>. </p>
<p>These short-duration rain events can be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0245-3">much larger</a> than you’d expect from the 7% increase in moisture per degree of warming. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/think-storms-are-getting-worse-rapid-rain-bursts-in-sydney-have-become-at-least-40-more-intense-in-2-decades-194159">Think storms are getting worse? Rapid rain bursts in Sydney have become at least 40% more intense in 2 decades</a>
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<h2>Flash cyclones? Hurricanes are intensifying faster</h2>
<p>Last month, Hurricane Idalia caused <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-31/in-pictures-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-idalia-in-florida/102797050">major flooding</a> in Florida. As we write, Hurricane Lee <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/weather/hurricane-lee-path-monday-climate/index.html">is approaching</a> the US. </p>
<p>Both tropical storms had something odd about them – <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-rapid-intensification-of-hurricane-lee-is-a-warning/">unusually rapid intensification</a>. That is, they got much stronger in a short period of time. </p>
<p>Usually, this process might increase wind speeds by about 50 kilometres per hour over a 24-hour period for a hurricane – also known as tropical cyclones and typhoons. But Lee’s wind speeds increased by 129km/h over that period. US meteorological expert Marshall Shepherd <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/hurricane-lees-hyper-intensification-in-atlantic-is-rewriting-rules-for-powerful-storms/3131529/">has dubbed</a> the phenomenon “hyperintensification”, which could put major population centres at risk. </p>
<p>Rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones are strong and can be very hazardous, but they aren’t very common. To trigger them, you need a combination of very high sea surface temperatures, moist air and wind speeds that don’t change much with height. </p>
<p>While still uncommon, rapid intensification is potentially getting <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2">more frequent</a> as we heat the planet. This is because oceans have taken up so much of the heat and there’s more moisture in the air. There’s much more still to learn here. </p>
<h2>Australia’s El Niño summer in a warming world</h2>
<p>Spring and summer in Australia are likely to be <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/">warmer and drier</a> than usual. This is due to the El Niño climate cycle predicted for the Pacific Ocean. If, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#msdynttrid=XL3BpvuiPgehBoCurLyjEeIZ7o9Bhy1Tl2f7mfXiHzw">as predicted</a>, we also get a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, this can heighten the hotter, drier weather brought by El Niño. After three wet La Niña years, this is likely to be a marked shift. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-indian-ocean-and-el-nino-join-forces-things-can-get-hot-and-dry-48969">When the Indian Ocean and El Niño join forces, things can get hot and dry</a>
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<p>If it arrives as expected, El Niño would lower the risk of tropical cyclones for northern Australia and reduce chances of heavy rain across most of the continent. </p>
<p>But for farmers, it may help trigger flash droughts. Prevailing warm and dry conditions may rapidly dry the land and reduce crop yields and slow livestock growth.</p>
<p>Drier surfaces coupled with grass growth from the wet years could <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2023">worsen fire risk</a>. Grass can dry out much faster than shrubs or trees, and grass fires can start and spread very rapidly.</p>
<p>Climate change loads the dice for extreme weather. And as we’re now seeing, these extremes aren’t just more intense – they can happen remarkably fast. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286">'Flash droughts' can dry out soil in weeks. New research shows what they look like in Australia</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives research funding from the University of Melbourne. </span></em></p>We all know climate change makes extreme weather more likely. But it’s also loading the dice for quick-forming drought, sudden and intense rainfall and fast-forming tropical storms.Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneAndrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126592023-09-04T13:36:18Z2023-09-04T13:36:18ZClimate change will affect hydropower – African countries must be prepared<p>Hydropower provides clean electricity to millions in Africa. It’s <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Jan/IRENA_Market_Africa_2022_Summary.pdf">the largest</a> source of renewable energy on the continent and accounts for <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/resources/1/uploads/content/15%20energy%20future%20COL.png">nearly one quarter</a> of total electricity generation in sub-Saharan Africa. Some countries, however, have a much heavier reliance on it than others. For instance, hydropower accounts for at least <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">80%</a> of electricity generation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia. </p>
<p>The continent has a lot more hydropower potential too. With relatively abundant water resources, sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-017-0006-y">is estimated</a> to have 1.4 petawatt hours a year of untapped, low cost potential. To put this into perspective, 1 PWh of energy could power about half a billion households for one year, assuming each household consumes an average of about 5.5 kWh per day.</p>
<p>However, there are political and environmental concerns that planners must consider if they want to expand hydropower. The tensions between <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-dam-dispute-five-key-reads-about-how-it-started-and-how-it-could-end-187644">Ethiopia and downstream countries</a> in the Nile River basin, following the construction of the colossal Grand Renaissance Dam, are emblematic of this.</p>
<p>As a researcher who studies the linkages between energy systems and climate change, I’ve written a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619317998">paper</a> that highlights why using or increasing dependency on hydropower involves climate-related risks. </p>
<p>The global and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/">regional climate is getting more extreme</a>. Events such as droughts and floods are becoming <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/warming-makes-droughts-extreme-wet-events-more-frequent-intense/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CGlobal%20warming%20is%20going%20to,their%20impacts%2C%20and%20adapting.%E2%80%9D">more frequent</a>. Worryingly, energy planning and management is not keeping pace with such changes <a href="https://powerafrica.medium.com/the-missing-link-understanding-power-transmission-financing-d33ca4846fbe">in most African countries</a>.</p>
<h2>Climate change threat to hydropower</h2>
<p>Hydroelectricity is generated by harnessing the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/kinetic-energy">kinetic energy</a> of water. This water may come from rivers or water that’s been stored in natural or artificial basins. Water flows through turbines which spin. The kinetic energy of the moving water is converted into <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/mechanical-energy">mechanical energy</a> and eventually into electrical energy.</p>
<p>A dam’s power output is, therefore, very sensitive to extreme changes in river and water availability. It’s also sensitive to permanent changes in the weather from when it was constructed.</p>
<p>I carried out an extensive <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619317998">review</a> of existing studies on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in different areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This included its impact on output, reliability and future hydropower prospects. </p>
<p>I found that the impact on hydropower output varies across regions. Countries in east Africa <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">could benefit from a wetter climate</a> in terms of hydropower output. On the other hand, there are serious concerns that countries in southern Africa and western Africa will face a <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa#:%7E:text=The%20western%20part%20of%20Southern,will%20have%20implications%20for%20precipitation.">drier climate</a>. This would bring negative impacts. Drops in water levels mean turbines will operate at lower rates and therefore produce less electricity. Central Africa would be the least affected sub-region in terms of precipitation change and drought incidence.</p>
<p>The expected changes in precipitation levels and patterns are uncertain, however. Different climate models and scenarios offer a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x">mixed picture of how the future might unfold</a>, particularly over central and southwestern Africa. Still, there is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf">consensus</a> that extreme hydrological events will increase throughout the continent with climate change. This will make power systems less reliable, unless there’s proper planning in place. </p>
<p>Several countries are more at risk than others because they depend largely, or entirely, on hydropower generation and have few back-up options available. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique and Sierra Leone. Some might even increase their dependency on hydropower. </p>
<p>Only some countries have made progress in diversifying their energy mix. Kenya, for instance, has developed and continues to plan for significant <a href="https://rapidtransition.org/stories/doing-development-differently-how-kenya-is-rapidly-emerging-as-africas-renewable-energy-superpower/">alternative renewable capacity</a>.</p>
<h2>Planning and management of power supply</h2>
<p>Several planning and management actions are needed to prepare for the effects of climate change on hydropower. This will ensure that citizens in sub-Saharan Africa benefit from a more reliable power supply.</p>
<p>First, hydropower-dependent countries need to accelerate their efforts to diversify their power mix. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf5848">A new study</a> demonstrated that African countries should increase investments in other renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. The study finds that in many areas, such as in the Zambezi and Niger river basins, renewables are becoming cost competitive or even cheaper than hydropower. The objective of investing in renewable sources of electricity is in line with the <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview">African Union’s Agenda 2063</a>. </p>
<p>Second, countries must address inadequate power transmission infrastructure. This contributes to the lack of resilience. Countries could benefit from transboundary power trading opportunities <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0539-0">among different</a> sources of renewable energy. For instance dry spells, leading to reduced river streamflow, might coincide with high solar PV outputs in neighbouring countries, or vice versa. This will require both adequate generation and transmission infrastructure in different countries. It’ll also need a high level of coordination among different power producers and countries.</p>
<p>Finally, it’s essential to include a nexus approach in power system planning. For example, when planning new hydropower projects, policymakers must assess the future need for water in farming and cities. They should also assess the potential risks of multiple sectors needing water simultaneously.</p>
<p>Overall, power system planners must work with a robust framework that accounts for the inter-dependencies between hydropower, water availability and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Different actions can increase the resilience of hydropower infrastructure and ensure a reliable and sustainable power supply.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africas-energy-sector-will-need-to-transform-radically-these-are-the-five-biggest-challenges-201791">Africa's energy sector will need to transform radically - these are the five biggest challenges</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212659/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giacomo Falchetta receives funding from the European Union H2020 project Long-Term Joint EU-AU Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy.</span></em></p>There’s a consensus that extreme hydrological events will increase throughout the continent. This will lead to growing issues with power system reliability.Giacomo Falchetta, Postdoctoral Research Scholar in Energy, Climate and Environment, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.