tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/electoral-integrity-17543/articlesElectoral integrity – The Conversation2024-02-08T13:21:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215732024-02-08T13:21:26Z2024-02-08T13:21:26ZAI could help cut voter fraud – but it’s far more likely to disenfranchise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570452/original/file-20240120-27-wwkoa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C44%2C5802%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Yeexin Richelle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the year is 2029. You have been living at the same address for a decade. The postman, who knows you well, smiles as he walks to your door and hands you a bunch of letters. As you sift through them, one card grabs your attention. It says: “Let us know if you are still here.” </p>
<p>It’s an election year and the card from the electoral office is asking you to confirm you are still a resident at the same address. It has a deadline, and you may be purged from the voter list if you don’t respond to it. </p>
<p>You had read about the government using AI to detect and eliminate electoral fraud through selective querying. Is it the AI pointing fingers at you? A quick check reveals your neighbours haven’t received any such cards. You feel singled out and insecure. Why have you been asked to prove that you live where you’ve lived for so long?</p>
<p>Let’s look under the hood. You received the card because election officials had deployed an AI system that can triangulate evidence to estimate why some voters should be contacted to check whether they are still a resident at their address. It profiles voters based on whether they display the behaviour of a “typical” resident. </p>
<p>In this case, you had taken early retirement and not filed tax returns in the past few years. And you had been on vacation during the previous election in 2024. These actions led the AI to conclude that you could be lingering in the electoral list illegitimately and triggered the system to contact you. </p>
<p>This fictional story is more plausible than you might think. In 2017 and 2018, more than 340,000 Wisconsin residents <a href="https://www.wicourts.gov/ca/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=255587">received</a> a letter asking them to confirm if they needed to remain on the voter list. This was at the behest of a US-wide organisation called <a href="https://ericstates.org/">Eric</a>, which had classified these voters as “movers” – those who may have ceased to be residents. Eric used data on voting history to identify movers – but also administrative data such as <a href="https://elections.wi.gov/memo/2023-eric-movers-review-process-quarter-4">driving licence and post office records</a>. </p>
<p>Eric may not have used any sophisticated AI, but the logic it employed is very much the kind of logic that an AI would be expected to apply, only at a much larger scale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A roll of stickers reading 'I voted' next to a a picture US flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If AI is left in charge of prompting voter registrations, fewer people might end up on the roll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Barbara Kalbfleisch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The approach seemed highly effective. Only 2% of people responded, suggesting the vast majority of the people contacted were indeed movers. But <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe4498">research</a> later showed systematic demographic patterns among Eric errors. The people erroneously identified as movers (and ended up showing up to vote) were far more likely to be from ethnic minorities.</p>
<h2>AI and ‘majoritarian gerrymandering’</h2>
<p>AI algorithms are used in a variety of real-world settings to make judgments on human users. Supermarkets routinely use algorithms to judge whether you are a beer person or a wine person to send you targeted offers. </p>
<p>Every online payment transaction is being assessed by an AI in real-time to decide whether it could be fraudulent. If you’ve ever tried to buy something and ended up triggering an additional security measure – be it a password prompt or request for authentication on a mobile app – your bank’s AI was judging your attempted transaction as abnormal or suspect.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">research</a> shows that abundant AI capacity is available to make judgments on whether people’s behaviour is deviant or abnormal. To return to our opening example, in a world where early retirement is not the norm, an early retiree has the scales tipped against them.</p>
<p>Such social sorting, carried out by AI-based judgments, could be interpreted as a latent or soft form of majoritarian gerrymandering. Traditional gerrymandering is the unethical practice of redrawing electoral district boundaries to skew electoral outcomes. AI-based social sorting could disenfranchise people for behaving in a way that deviates from the way the majority behaves. </p>
<p>The patterns in the Wisconsin case should have us concerned that voters from ethnic minorities were systematically being classified as deviating from cultural norms. </p>
<h2>Who gets a vote?</h2>
<p>In an ideal world, the electoral roll would include all eligible voters and exclude all ineligible voters. Clean voter lists are vital for democracy. </p>
<p>Having ineligible voters lurking on lists opens the possibility for spurious voting, skewing the result and damaging electoral integrity. On the other hand, leaving eligible voters off a list disenfranchises them and could result in election results that don’t reflect the true will of the people. </p>
<p>Ensuring access to the franchise to every eligible voter is therefore very important. To do a good job, efforts towards clean voter lists need to spread their focus <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1532673X20906472">reasonably between integrity and access</a>. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, becomes whether AI is capable of doing this. As it stands today, AI is fundamentally a data-driven technology – one that is adept at looking at existing data and identifying regularities or irregularities. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">much better equipped</a> to spot issues with existing data than to identify instances of missing data. That means it is good at identifying people who may have moved from their registered address but not good at identifying new residents who have not registered to vote. </p>
<p>In a world of AI-driven electoral cleansing, you are much more likely to receive a “are you still here?” card than your new neighbour is likely to receive a “have you considered registering to vote?” card. </p>
<p>What this means for using AI to clean up voter lists is stark. It risks skewing the balance towards checking for integrity and away from enabling access. Integrity focused efforts in essence involve pointing fingers at people and putting the onus on them to confirm they are legitimate voters. Access focused efforts are like a welcoming pat on the back – an invitation to be part of the political process.</p>
<p>Even if widespread disenfranchisement doesn’t happen, states still risk undermining trust in elections by using AI on a larger scale. It could lead voters to feel electoral offices are obsessively oriented towards fault-finding and much less interested in democratic inclusion. And at a time when trust in elections is needed more than ever, that perception could be just as damaging as actually cutting people from electoral rolls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanley Simoes receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 945231; and the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Padmanabhan and Muiris MacCarthaigh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI is likely to be used to help us run elections in the near future but there are risks as well as reward.Deepak Padmanabhan, Senior Lecturer in AI ethics, Queen's University BelfastMuiris MacCarthaigh, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, Queen's University BelfastStanley Simoes, Marie Curie Early Stage Researcher, School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1217062019-08-14T09:57:41Z2019-08-14T09:57:41ZIs the UK ready for an election? Inside a system straining at the seams<p>Speculation has it that an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49004486">early general election</a> is around the corner for the UK.</p>
<p>If it does come, it won’t be the country’s first unexpected election this year. The European parliamentary elections were not supposed to happen. But happen they did. And they didn’t go to plan. There were angry scenes at polling stations when many EU citizens were <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/05/30/deniedmyvote-why-many-eu-citizens-were-unable-to-vote-in-the-european-parliament-elections/">denied their right to vote</a>. The government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/12/government-taken-to-court-by-eu-citizens-denied-their-right-to-vote">faces a judicial review</a> over these incidents after campaign group the3million claimed EU citizens had been “systematically disenfranchised”.</p>
<p>And these problems were not necessarily a one-off. Electoral officials on the ground have done an outstanding job in recent years at operating under a perfect storm of pressures. But these pressures are gathering pace, putting the functioning of the system under threat. They’ve been able to just about paper over the cracks in a crumbling Victorian system in need of repair. But they may not be able to keep it all together much longer. </p>
<h2>The eight million missing</h2>
<p>The 2019 elections were not the only example of citizens showing up to vote and being turned away. This happens, research suggests, at all electoral events in the UK. In the 2015 general election, two-thirds of polling stations turned away <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/clark-james-poll-workers.pdf">at least one voter</a>. The most recent estimates are that <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/The-December-2015-electoral-registers-in-Great-Britain-REPORT.pdf">roughly 8m people are not correctly registered</a>. This means that they are missing from the register entirely or registered at an old address.</p>
<p>This problem has been growing over several decades, but was made worse by recent reforms to require everyone to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Comparative-Electoral-Management-Performance-Networks-and-Instruments/James/p/book/9781138682412">register individually</a>. In the past, one person in a household could register everyone in it. Reforms introduced in 2014 require everyone to add their own name to register.</p>
<p>It is more of a problem for some communities than others. <a href="https://fabians.org.uk/missing-millions/">The register</a> is less complete in urban areas (especially London) and among recent movers and private renters. Commonwealth and EU nationals, non-white ethnicities, lower socioeconomic groups, citizens with mental disabilities and young people are all also more likely to be incorrectly registered or not registered at all.</p>
<h2>Electoral services under financial strain</h2>
<p>Public sector resources have been limited for a sustained period. Cash crises in the NHS and schools have regularly made headlines. But there has been a silent crisis in electoral services departments, too. Funding for elections is provided by central government, but local authorities have to pay for the work needed to compile the electoral register. Recent <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/funding-elections-single-pages.pdf">research</a> has shown that these departments are increasingly underfunded, with more and more electoral services reporting that they were running over budget.</p>
<p>One major contributing factor to this was, again, the move to individual electoral registration. Local authorities had to spend more on stationary and staff to reach voters and process online applications. They received extra cash to ease the transition in the short term, but this funding is due to end. They are therefore about to be left with an electoral registration system that will be more expensive to run, while cuts to local government budgets continue. </p>
<p>Service cutbacks have been silently made for many years. As costs rose and budgets shrank, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09540962.2017.1351834">voter engagement work was jettisoned</a> as a “nice extra” rather than an essential public service to encourage people to have their say at the ballot box. Meanwhile, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0192512119829516">staff workloads and levels of stress</a> have been shown to be excessively high by international standards.</p>
<p>These are the conditions under which we might see <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2018/08/15/audit2018-are-uk-elections-conducted-with-integrity-with-sufficient-turnout/">more people fall off the register</a>, <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2018/08/15/audit2018-are-uk-elections-conducted-with-integrity-with-sufficient-turnout/">the gap between young and old increase</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/voter-id-our-first-results-suggest-local-election-pilot-was-unnecessary-and-ineffective-100859">more people turned away from polling stations</a>. They are the pressured conditions under which errors might occur during the stress of the day if staff have limited time to prepare. They are the conditions where we might see scenes such as voters locked out of polling stations, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/election-polling-stations-lock-out">they were in 2010</a>.</p>
<h2>Victorian practices</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, elections involve archaic Victorian practices and in many areas lack transparency. If you want to complain, as many citizens did when they were turned away at the European elections, there can be major confusion about who to complain to.</p>
<p>Some write to their MP, some to the Electoral Commission and others (rightly) to their local Returning Officer. But there is no central complaints process – or system for counting how many complaints are received, which could usefully inform policy in the future. The officials who run elections and electoral registration are oddly exempt from Freedom of Information requests and it would be illegal to audit an election.</p>
<p>An overwhelming reason why people are not registered is because they think they already are. They assume that public bodies are coordinated and clever enough to share information. If I pay council tax, why can’t that information be shared with electoral services? The public assumes that this information is passed seamlessly onto the people handing out ballots in polling stations. Such common sense connected thinking doesn’t exist, however. Instead, voters are all asked to register individually – and valuable resources are spent reminding them to do so. Rather than having one single electoral register, the UK has 372. There is a patchwork of local registers held by local registration officers for their respective areas.</p>
<p>In a new report, <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2019/08/missing-millions-still-missing-pages.pdf">The Missing Millions, Still Missing</a>, my colleagues and I make recommendations on how elections can be upgraded by 2025 to bring about a modern, inclusive electoral process. They include providing a website so people can check if they are registered, registering young people in schools and universities, providing a centralised complaints system and allowing citizens to vote at any polling station.</p>
<p>Some reforms require some behind the scenes election-gadgetry, such as a single electoral register, digitally connected polling stations and in the long-term automatic registration. Voters will care little about many of these – but they are all central to upgrading British elections. </p>
<p>In preparation for a snap 2019 election, the best that can be done is to give electoral officials as much resource and notice as possible. But strategic planning should begin now to upgrade UK democracy for 2025.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby James has received funding from the AHRC, ERSC, Nuffield Foundation, McDougall Trust, Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust.
He is Lead Fellow on Electoral Modernisation for the All Party Parliamentary Group on Democratic Participation.. </span></em></p>Voters complained of being turned away from polling stations in the European elections, and local teams are struggling to keep registers up to date on tight budgets.Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158722019-05-02T10:44:05Z2019-05-02T10:44:05ZTrump’s dirty tricks: Unethical, even illegal campaign tactics are an American tradition<p>Donald Trump pulled some pretty unseemly stunts to win the 2016 United States presidential election. </p>
<p>He threatened to put his opponent, Hillary Clinton, in jail and publicly asked Russia to <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/03/trump-russia-emails-joke-cpac-speech">hack her emails</a>. After Russian operatives did something similar – stealing <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/mueller-report-shows-russians-trump-camp-were-friends-benefits-collusion-n996101">emails from Democratic National Committee servers</a> – the Trump campaign publicized the hacked emails, which were published on WikiLeaks. Trump aides also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/25/opinion/mueller-trump-campaign-russia-conpiracy-.html">met with Russian spies</a> who promised information damaging to Clinton.</p>
<p>Some of these activities, which special counsel Robert Mueller <a href="https://graphics.axios.com/docs/mueller-report.pdf">uncovered</a> in his 22-month investigation into Trump, may have been illegal. </p>
<p>Other Trump attacks on Clinton were tawdry, unethical and, according to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/barr-to-graham-no-underlying-crime-by-trump-in-mueller-report-1515519043849">Attorney General William Barr</a> in his May 1 testimony to Congress, technically lawful. </p>
<p>The attacks were, for the Justice Department at least, dirty tricks.</p>
<p>Students of American history – including those who’ve read the college U.S. politics textbook <a href="http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ngsp/americangovernment/">I co-authored</a> – will know that Trump has a lot of company in the dirty tricks department: Elections have always been nasty. </p>
<p>Since the earliest years of the republic, candidates have used <a href="https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/151920">deceptive, underhanded and dubiously legal tactics</a> to discredit their opponents.</p>
<h2>1800: Jefferson vs. Adams</h2>
<p>The 1800 race between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams was a <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/373588.Adams_vs_Jefferson">lowly beginning for the new American democracy</a>. </p>
<p>Jefferson was Adams’ vice president from 1797 to 1801. To defeat his boss without personally maligning the president of the United States, Jefferson let a journalist, <a href="https://www.monticello.org/site/research-and-collections/james-callender">James Callender</a>, do his dirty work.</p>
<p>Callender wrote rapidly partisan articles for the Richmond Reporter newspaper and in a self-published 1800 anti-Federalist pamphlet called “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Prospect_Before_Us.html?id=HLhEnQEACAAJ">The Prospect Before Us</a>.” One of his more creative attacks was to <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/John-Adams/David-McCullough/9780743223133">question Adams’ masculinity</a>. He accused Adams of being a “hideous hermaphroditical character, which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman.”</p>
<p>Callender’s anti-Federalist publications during the campaign led to his prosecution under the Sedition Act, according to the <a href="https://www.monticello.org/site/research-and-collections/james-callender#footnote5_3u77848">Thomas Jefferson Foundation</a>. In May 1800, he was sentenced to nine months in jail and a US$200 fine.</p>
<p>This bitter contest between president and vice president occurred because President Adams and Vice President Jefferson came from different political party. Back then, voters picked two candidates for president. The top vote-getter became president, the second-place finisher became vice president.</p>
<p>Congress changed this system changed after the dirty 1800 election, passing the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xii">12th Amendment</a>, which established <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Origins_of_the_Twelfth_Amendment.html?id=3n6GAAAAMAAJ">the current running mate system</a>. </p>
<h2>1828: Adultery, murder and pimping</h2>
<p>That didn’t make electoral politics any kinder. The 1828 race between President John Quincy Adams and the southern statesman Andrew Jackson was the United States’ <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jqadams/campaigns-and-elections">nastiest and most personal election yet</a>.</p>
<p>Democratic President John Quincy Adams lost badly – but not before he did some serious damage to Jackson’s reputation. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272056/original/file-20190501-113864-1czatif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andrew Jackson’s wife, Rachel, was labeled an ‘American Jezebel’ in the 1828 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Rachel_Jackson.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Adam’s campaign surrogates <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jqadams/campaigns-and-elections">accused Jackson of murder</a> and spread rumors that Jackson’s wife, Rachel – who had previously been married to another man – had never really divorced. </p>
<p>“As a result,” political commentator Rick Unger wrote <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/08/20/the-dirtiest-presidential-campaign-ever-not-even-close/">in Forbes magazine in 2012</a>, “the Democratic candidate was accused of being an adulterer and running away with another man’s wife, while Mrs. Jackson was labeled a bigamist.” </p>
<p>Jackson’s team retaliated by accusing Adams, a former ambassador to Russia, of having provided Russian Czar Alexander I up with young American virgins for his sexual pleasure.</p>
<p>These tactics probably amounted to <a href="https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/defamation-law-made-simple-29718.html">criminal defamation</a>. In the United States, it is unlawful to tarnish a person’s reputation by spreading false information. But there is <a href="https://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/facpubs/69/">no evidence that either camp sued</a>. </p>
<h2>Kennedy’s dirty tricks</h2>
<p>In the modern era, John F. Kennedy found subtler ways to discredit his opponents.</p>
<p>When running for Congress in 1946, Kennedy’s competitors in the Democratic primary included a Boston city councilman named <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/asset-viewer/archives/JFKOH/Russo%2C%20Joseph/JFKOH-JUR-01/JFKOH-JUR-01">Joseph Russo</a>. Kennedy’s father, the formidable and ambitious Joseph Kennedy, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2893826-the-kennedy-menv">paid a janitor</a> named Joseph Russo to run for Congress as well. </p>
<p>In the confusion over which Russo was the legitimate politician, votes were split. Kennedy won his seat. </p>
<p>Later, when Kennedy was a presidential candidate in 1960, his aides raised the temperature in the TV studio where he would soon face off against Vice President Richard Nixon in the nation’s first-ever televised debate. The Kennedy campaign <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/010027716">knew</a> that Nixon suffered from hyperhidrosis, a medical condition that causes a person to easily sweat. </p>
<p>As Nixon perspired and struggled under the bright lights and high heat, Kennedy looked <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/kennedy-nixon-debates">cool, calm and sweat-free</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272044/original/file-20190501-113839-1bg31l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John F. Kennedy’s team turned up the heat in the TV studio before a televised 1960 debate with Richard Nixon, knowing he would sweat heavily.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Campaign-Great-Gaffes/c27f9e6f68df44aca79bc9fc3219e701/5/0">AP Images, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nixon had been politically pranked before. </p>
<p>Dick Tuck, a notorious Democratic Party trickster, was “known to pose as a fire marshal at Nixon appearances and give reporters low estimates for the size of the crowds,” according to his <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-people-dicktuck/political-prankster-and-nixon-nemesis-dick-tuck-dead-at-age-94-idUSKCN1IV257">obituary by Reuters</a>.</p>
<h2>Party infighting</h2>
<p>As president, Nixon’s team would excel at much dirtier tricks.</p>
<p>To defeat Democrat Hubert Humphrey in the 1972 election, Nixon operatives <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1973/07/22/archives/dirty-tricks.html">caused trouble for his campaign</a> in ingenious ways. </p>
<p>At a fancy fundraising dinner for Democratic vice presidential candidate Edmund Muskie, Republican tricksters ordered the delivery of $300 in liquor, 200 pizzas and even a couple magicians – much to the dismay of organizers and the shock of the 1,300 very proper attendees.</p>
<p>The dirty tricks tradition continued into the 21st century, sometimes within the same party.</p>
<p>During the 2000 Republican presidential primary, George W. Bush’s campaign strategist Karl Rove spread rumors in South Carolina that John McCain’s adopted Bangladeshi daughter was <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/dirty-tricks-south-carolina-and-john-mccain/">his “illegitimate black child.”</a> </p>
<p>In 2010, an Arizona Republican political operative named Steve May <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/us/politics/07candidates.html">recruited homeless people to run for several offices</a> on the Green Party ticket, hoping to split the liberal vote. Angry Democrats said that nominating “sham” candidates violated state and federal election laws. </p>
<p>That case didn’t go to trial, but some dirty campaign tricks have spurred legal action. </p>
<p>After the Democratic-aligned <a href="https://www.al.com/news/birmingham/2019/04/disbarred-lawyer-garve-ivey-jr-sentenced-to-12-months-behind-bars.html">Alabama lawyer Garve Ivey Jr.</a> in 1998 allegedly paid a call girl to file a false rape claim against the GOP’s candidate for lieutenant governor, Steve Windom, Ivey was charged with criminal defamation, bribery and witness tampering. He was sentenced to 30 days in jail and fined $1,000. </p>
<p>While that misdemeanor conviction was later overturned, Ivey was disbarred in 2011 and later <a href="https://www.al.com/news/birmingham/2019/02/disbarred-lawyer-garve-ivey-jr-convicted-on-felony-theft-charges-ordered-to-pay-38151520-in-restitution.html">jailed on unrelated charges of misusing client funds</a>.</p>
<p>The lesson here? </p>
<p>The ethical standard for election campaigns in the United States has always been low. Modern techniques like email hacking may be new, but using surrogates to trash your opponent is an electoral strategy as old as the republic itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen W. Schmidt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid all the Mueller report uncertainty, one thing is clear: Donald Trump did some wildly improper things to win the presidency. So did Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, JFK and George W. Bush.Steffen W. Schmidt, Lucken Endowed Professor of Political Science, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1007432018-08-20T14:13:30Z2018-08-20T14:13:30ZGovernor’s race in Ekiti points to problems in national Nigerian poll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232720/original/file-20180820-30596-1gxjh4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are widespread concerns in Nigeria about vote buying and intimidation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">IIP Photo Archive</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With less than 200 days to Nigeria’s next general election - scheduled for February 16, 2019 - there are apprehensions about how vote buying, violence and the deployment of security agents could affect the 2019 polls. Concerns about the fairness of the national poll have been heightened by events surrounding the <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2018/07/16/ekiti-election-pdp-apc-bought-votes-tmg-releases-full-report/">election of the governor in Ekiti State</a> in southwestern Nigeria. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://punchng.com/by-elections-kogi-katsina-pdp-reject-results-as-apc-wins-in-three-states/">by-elections</a> in Bauchi, Katsina and Kogi states have raised similar concerns with the opposition People’s Democratic Party alleging that the elections were neither free nor fair, and insisting that they were marred by violence, snatching of ballot boxes, and vote-buying. </p>
<p>These elections raised <a href="https://cleen.org/2018/08/06/ekitidecides2018-improved-security-49997-deployed-security-personnel-unjustifiable/">two central problems</a> within Nigerian electoral politics - vote buying, and the deployment of the police and military to intimidate opponents and their supporters. </p>
<p>These two factors featured prominently in the Ekiti state poll. The election was won by the ruling party candidate Kayode Fayemi who ran against the incumbent deputy governor Olusola Kolapo Olubunmi.</p>
<p>That election was significant because it was said to prove that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is still popular among Nigerians in the southwest of the country. Of the six states in the southwest, only Ekiti was controlled by the People’s Democratic Party. As things stand, the entire southwest is now an All Progressives Congress zone. </p>
<p>The Ekiti state election victory was therefore a big win for the ruling party. This is particularly true because of President Muhammadu Buhari’s <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/270010-buharimeter-nigerians-rate-buhari-low-on-corruption-security-economy-poll.html">dwindling popularity</a>. The president’s approval rating is at 40%, which marks a 17 percentage point decline from the 57% rating recorded in the 2017. This is part of the reason why the party <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=733z2P591Q0">went all out</a> to ensure a win in Ekiti. </p>
<p>The final outcome of the gubernatorial election, however, still hangs in the balance - the opposition party <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/ekiti-governorship-poll-pdp-candidate-eleka-files-700-page-petition/">has rejected the result</a> and challenged it at the <a href="https://punchng.com/ekiti-poll-olusola-asks-tribunal-to-declare-him-winner/">election tribunal</a>. </p>
<p>Even election observers say that the election <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/ekiti-poll-short-of-global-best-practices-electoral-standards-observers/">fell short of global best practices</a>. Nonetheless, the ruling party’s win in Ekiti has been seen as a <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2018/07/15/ekiti-election-breeze-fayemis-victory-will-sweep-south-east-2019-bso/">harbinger of what’s to come</a> in Nigeria’s 2019 general election. </p>
<h2>Intimidation by security agents</h2>
<p>The Ekiti election showed the government pulling out all the stops when it comes to the deployment of the country’s police force.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://punchng.com/ekiti-election-police-deploy-30000-personnel-two-choppers-others/">police headquarters deployed</a> 30,000 policemen – out of total of 370 000 in the whole country – two helicopters, 250 patrol vehicles, and 10 armoured personnel carriers, to man the election in Ekiti, which has a population of just 2.3 million. </p>
<p>The police were used to harass opposition with Ayodele Fayose – who is the outgoing incumbent governor – allegedly being <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2G8KXFJI8c">slapped and teargassed</a>. <a href="http://www.aitonline.tv/post-election_observers_condemn_ekiti_violence">Election observers</a> condemned the absence of campaign security, which the government should have provided, and the violence which injured opposition party supporters. </p>
<p>The events in Ekiti showed that Nigeria’s security organs are more loyal to the government in power than they are to the country and its citizens. </p>
<p>The levels of police presence – and the use of violence – are not unprecedented even by Nigerian standards. What it points to is the possibility that a similar pattern will be repeated in the national poll. Although it may be difficult for the government to muster the same levels of police presence across the whole of Nigeria. </p>
<p>But there’s a strong possibility that security agents will be deployed in states where president Buhari’s chances are slim. This would affect voter turnout as people may fear violence.</p>
<h2>Cash for votes</h2>
<p>Another trend that was in evidence in the Ekiti election was vote buying.</p>
<p>This isn’t unique to Nigeria and has <a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/mbalula-mthembu-accusing-each-other-of-buying-votes">been reported</a> in country’s across Africa including Kenya and South Africa. The practice has diluted Africa’s fledgling democracies for years. </p>
<p>The prepaid vote buying strategy was adopted by both the ruling party and the opposition. For this strategy, state <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/money-rain-in-ekiti-as-pdp-apc-entice-voters-with-cash/">residents were paid</a> to vote for either the ruling party or the opposition. The outgoing governor was reported to have <a href="https://punchng.com/i-received-n3000-alert-from-govt-to-vote-pdp-candidate-ap-candidate/">wired N3,000 naira</a> (USD$8) into civil servants and pensioners’ accounts days before the election to buy their allegiance. </p>
<p>This appears to be a very small amount of money. But <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/26/africa/nigeria-overtakes-india-extreme-poverty-intl/index.html">more than half</a> of the Nigerian population lives below the poverty line. On top of this, government workers in the state <a href="https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/workers-demand-payment-of-outstanding-salaries-as-fayose-promotes-40-100-workers.html">haven’t been paid for 10 months</a>. Pensioners are also <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/ssouth-west/234788-pay-n19-7billion-benefits-ekiti-pensioners-tell-fayose.html">owed money</a>. </p>
<p>The result is that many are struggling to survive on meagre resources, so much so that come election time, voters cards become a commodity which are <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/gram-matenga/cash-for-votes-political-legitimacy-in-nigeria">sold for as little as 500 naira (USD$1)</a>. </p>
<p>In some cases, political operatives employed a postpaid strategy. For this strategy voters would take photographs of their ballot papers using their mobile phones, and then show them to their party agents who would then give them cash for their “yes” vote. </p>
<h2>Poverty curse</h2>
<p>Despite the vote-buying and the massive security presence in Ekiti the federal government described the victory as an endorsement of Buhari’s performance. </p>
<p>But the evidence suggests otherwise. Unless poor Nigerians understand the power of the ballot this mockery of voters by political merchants will be front and centre during the 2019 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oludayo Tade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigerians go to the polls in 2019 in an election that the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari wants to win by any means necessary.Oludayo Tade, Lecturer of Criminology, Victimology, Deviance and Social Problems, University of IbadanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/859032017-10-19T04:18:30Z2017-10-19T04:18:30ZMaking voting both simple and secure is a challenge for democracies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190936/original/file-20171019-32358-1wb6z4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The US compares relatively poorly with equivalent countries when it comes to voter registration.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Bria Hall</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent elections around the world have raised concerns about the procedures used for voter registration and their potential consequences. The effects include disenfranchisement (voters being prevented from casting a ballot) and voter rights, fraud and security, and mismanagement and accuracy.</p>
<p>It’s critical to strike the right trade-off between making registration accessible and making it secure. But how many countries are affected by these sorts of issues? And which is more problematic – lack of security or lack of inclusion?</p>
<h2>Our study</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/the-year-in-elections-2016-2017/">Perceptions of Electoral Integrity survey</a> asked experts for their assessments of electoral integrity in 161 countries that held 260 national elections from January 1 to June 30, 2017.</p>
<p>The study used three criteria to monitor the quality of the voter registration process: inclusion, accuracy, and security.</p>
<p>These aspects can be considered equally important to ensure all and only eligible citizens are able to vote. The items can be analysed separately and also combined into an index.</p>
<p>As illustrated below, the results show the quality of the voter registration process in Northern Europe and Scandinavia performed well, as did several Latin American countries like Brazil. </p>
<p>At the same time, voter registration proved problematic in many countries in Africa and the Middle East, as well as in India and parts of Asia.</p>
<p>The US compared relatively poorly with equivalent liberal democracies on voter registration. This is in no small measure due to the partisan polarisation over the issue, and past reliance on self-registration. By contrast, governments in many other countries register voters on their behalf.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190968/original/file-20171019-1052-m4pwnh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=826&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=826&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190967/original/file-20171019-1062-b9d8p5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=826&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The quality of voter registration worldwide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Inclusiveness versus security</h2>
<p>The global comparison below shows mean ratings on the measure of inclusion on the vertical axis. The measure of security is shown on the horizontal.</p>
<p>Some countries performed well on both indicators – notably Sweden, Denmark and Finland, as well as Slovakia, Costa Rica and the Czech Republic. </p>
<p>By contrast, many other places (located in the bottom left quadrant) performed poorly on both measures, such as Syria (which failed to allow citizens to vote if they had fled to neighbouring states as refugees), Haiti (which lacked the capacity to administer elections), Bahrain (with internal conflict), and Afghanistan (with high levels of electoral corruption).</p>
<p>Finally, several countries scored worse on inclusiveness than on security. In these elections, experts thought the more serious problem was the exclusion of eligible citizens.</p>
<p>These problems can arise for many reasons – such as disputed citizenship rights, attempts at voter suppression, lack of capacity to include young people, women, linguistic or ethnic minorities and hard-to-reach rural populations, or failing to maintain up-to-date electoral rolls.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190946/original/file-20171019-32355-bi8o8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monitoring inclusion and security worldwide. Scale ranges from strongly agree (1) to strongly disagree (5). Regimes classified according to Freedom House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Responding to the challenges</h2>
<p>So, the challenge is to strike the optimal balance between security and accessibility, to make ensure eligible citizens – and only eligible citizens – cast a ballot. Doing so strengthens public confidence in the electoral process and democracy.</p>
<p>Easier registration processes, such as the availability of online applications and same-day registration, usually strengthens voter turnout. But the introduction of more accessible registration without sufficient verification raises security risks of abuse and fraud. </p>
<p>In the US, parties are <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/02/how-voter-id-laws-discriminate-study/517218/">deeply polarised</a> over whether the use of strict photo ID at polling places helps maintain accurate and reliable lists, or whether this suppresses voting rights for eligible citizens who lack such ID. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/about/news-room/press-releases/2012/02/14/pew-one-in-eight-voter-registrations-inaccurate-51-million-citizens-unregistered">2012 report</a> found many American states faced major challenges of accuracy, cost, and efficiency in their voter registration systems. Since then, they have <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/voter-registration-modernization">made many efforts</a> to upgrade electronic procedures by allowing citizens to register and check their records online.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/automatic-voter-registration">An initiative</a> sweeping the US – led by Oregon in 2015 – is states requiring citizens to opt-out rather than opt-in to being registered to vote. </p>
<p>But new risks have also became evident, not least Russian meddling and cyber-security threats to official voting records. To tackle this, the US Electoral Assistance Commission has <a href="https://www.eac.gov/news/2017/06/07/06/07/2017-advisory-media/">recently issued new guidelines</a>, working with the states and the Department of Homeland Security to implement them. Yet the overhaul of America’s ageing voting equipment will carry a hefty price tag.</p>
<p>Foreign attempts at interference in voting have been reported in other countries, including <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/data-stolen-during-hack-attack-on-german-parliament-berlin-says/a-18486900">Germany</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/france-election-2017-russia-hacked-cyberattacks/">France</a>. </p>
<p>Following the 2017 UK general election, the Electoral Commission <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/watchdog-investigates-claims-of-people-voting-twice-at-general-election">expressed concern</a> about the risks of double voting and duplicate registration applications.</p>
<p>In populous developing countries like Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, without reliable census information or identification documents, the challenges are even greater. Poor quality records can create opportunities for vote manipulation.</p>
<p>Strict registration processes, such as those relying on biometric technologies for ID, may remove ineligible applicants but simultaneously throw out legitimate voters and make the list less accurate, not more. And biometric voter registration, which many African countries <a href="https://theconversation.com/biometric-voting-in-chad-new-technology-same-old-political-tricks-58663">have adopted</a>, presents challenges for the protection of personal information.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pippa Norris receives funding from Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Cameron and Thomas Wynter do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are good reasons to be concerned about the procedures used for voter registration in many countries, including many long-established democracies.Pippa Norris, ARC Laureate Fellow, Professor of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney and McGuire Lecturer in Comparative Politics, Harvard Kennedy SchoolSarah Cameron, Electoral Integrity Project Manager and Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of SydneyThomas Wynter, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Electoral Integrity Project, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/560202016-03-16T03:15:58Z2016-03-16T03:15:58ZWatchdogs on a leash: where and why governments restrict election monitors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114943/original/image-20160314-11299-1od5rrb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Iranian presidential election protests in 2009 reached Oslo.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Iranian_presidential_election_2009_protests,_Oslo_-_2009-06-22_at_14-59-13_-_2009-06-22_at_14-59-13.jpg">Kjetil Ree/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/democracy-futures">Democracy Futures</a> series, a <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/democracy-futures/">joint global initiative</a> with the <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/">Sydney Democracy Network</a>. The project aims to stimulate fresh thinking about the many challenges facing democracies in the 21st century.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The University of Sydney’s <a href="http:www.electoralintegrityproject.com">Electoral Integrity Project</a> has just released its annual report, <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/electoralintegrityproject4/projects/expert-survey-2/the-year-in-elections-2015">The Year in Elections 2015</a>. Drawing on evidence from 54 countries that held elections in 2015, this report helps us understand their levels of compliance with international standards of electoral integrity. This is based in part on where and why governments attempt to restrict election monitors.</p>
<p>Since the 1980s, election monitoring has become <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/book/beyond-free-and-fair-monitoring-elections-and-building-democracy">widespread</a>. It has become an <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100592790">international norm</a>, with documents setting out the <a href="http://www.gndem.org/declaration-of-global-principles">principles</a> and <a href="http://aceproject.org/electoral-advice/election-observation/declaration-of-principles-for-international">code of conduct</a> for both <a href="http://www.eods.eu/library/EUEOM_Handbook_2016.pdf">foreign</a> and <a href="http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/70289">national</a> election observers. </p>
<p>These codes call upon governments to guarantee access for such watchdogs. The reality is that monitors face restrictions in many places.</p>
<p>The 2015 Ethiopian election is a case in point. The African Union – which has a <a href="http://sites.duke.edu/kelley/files/2012/03/IO.pdf">record of being rather uncritical</a> of electoral manipulators – fielded the only international observers. The European Union and all other international groups were <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/ethiopians-vote-in-national-election-1432463241">not invited</a>. Civil society groups and independent media were harshly <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/04/elections-ethiopian-style-150430084220440.html">suppressed</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115190/original/image-20160315-9262-qaf8yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adilur Rahman Khan, of the election watch group Odhikar, has been harassed and detained by authorities in Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/118186541@N02/22206128646/in/photolist-nX9ey7-zQhdp1">ILAC Rebuilding Justice Systems</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, human rights advocates were <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/11/bangladesh-arrest-activist-fabricating-information-atrocities">jailed</a> and harassed in the run-up to Bangladesh’s 2013 election. In Russia, election watchdogs face <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-justice-ministry-to-ban-election-monitor-golos/559275.html">legal action</a> and an ever-shrinking public space for their advocacy. And Azerbaijan’s <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/27/azerbaijan-unprecedented-government-crackdown">crackdowns</a> on independent non-government <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/12/18/azerbaijan-prominent-election-monitor-arrested">organisations</a> forced the Organisation for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) office to close, disabling its monitoring effort.</p>
<p>Evidently, there is a world of difference between the high hopes and dire realities of poll-watching. </p>
<p>“Top-down” factors may drive the supply of election monitors and their degree of access. If, for example, a government strongly wishes to be accepted by its regional peers, monitors may be less restricted in regions with overall stronger democratic <a href="http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic248058.files/April%2028%20readings/Levitsky_International_Linkage.pdf">linkage</a>. Countries can use aid conditionalities, diplomacy, shaming and other <a href="http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2013/08/19/cambodias-post-election-crisis-in-context/">international pressures</a> to promote standards of electoral integrity. </p>
<p>“Pseudo-democrats” may have their own incentives to allow international observers or domestic watchdogs to operate. Most likely they want to <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2012-01-01/pseudo-democrat-s-dilemma-why-election-monitoring-became">signal</a> that they adhere to international norms as one of the “good guys”.</p>
<p>However, “bottom-up” factors may also be important in explaining where monitors operate or are hindered. Democratic aspirations among a population may drive the desire for transparent elections, leading to calls for international attention and the creation of more watchdog NGOs. This could lead to a heightened engagement of international monitoring groups in a “<a href="http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic446176.files/Week_7/Keck_and_Sikkink_Transnational_Advocacy.pdf">boomerang effect</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114938/original/image-20160314-11261-gmcwik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How free and democratic can Azerbaijan elections be if they are not independently monitored?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Azərnəşr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Public grievances are another factor. If elections work well, or if citizens believe parliamentary oversight or the courts can remedy any malpractice, the demand for monitors will be low. </p>
<p>However, where malpractices are rampant and accountability mechanisms are ineffective, grievances over unfair elections are likely to run deep. Here, one would expect popular demands for independent monitoring. Unfortunately, even where grievances exist, restrictions of rights of association and other civil liberties are certain to limit opportunities for watchdog NGOs and make their formation less likely.</p>
<h2>What happens when observers are banned?</h2>
<p><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/electoralintegrityproject4/projects/expert-survey-2/the-year-in-elections-2015">The Year in Elections 2015</a> report gives us some insight into these issues. It evaluates the integrity of all 180 national parliamentary and presidential contests held between July 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015, in 139 countries (including 54 in 2015).</p>
<p>The figure below plots two items of the survey of Perceptions of Electoral Integrity (PEI) used as the basis of the report. More than 2000 election experts were asked how far they agreed on a five-point scale with the statements “international election monitors were restricted” and “domestic election monitors were restricted”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114924/original/image-20160314-11267-sd1duo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Restrictions on domestic and international election monitors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Perceptions of Electoral Integrity (PEI-4.0) expert survey, release 4.0</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Countries are grouped by the overall integrity of their elections (low to very low; moderate; or high to very high). The distribution shows a strong relationship between election quality and the ability of observers to operate. </p>
<p>The general pattern is that, where elections have high integrity, domestic and international watchdogs are free to observe and report. In low-integrity contests, they typically face harsh restrictions.</p>
<p>The average score on both survey items is 2.2 (out of five). This suggests that restriction of election monitors is not among the worst problems of electoral integrity.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, PEI experts evaluated restrictions on both types of observers as unproblematic in high-integrity contests. These are concentrated in Western Europe and the OECD democracies. They are tightly grouped in the bottom-left corner of the graph, which suggests regional norm diffusion effects.</p>
<p>The variability among countries with medium electoral integrity is much larger. It ranges from almost no restrictions in Ghana or Moldova, with scores of about 1.5, to a quite adverse environment for observers in Singapore, with scores of about 3 on both variables. Singapore may be less susceptible to the sticks and carrots of shaming and international aid because of its independent sources of economic growth.</p>
<p>The span is even wider for low-integrity contests. Malawi and Guatemala allow observers almost free access despite running generally poor elections. Highly repressive countries such as Ethiopia, Belarus and Equatorial Guinea severely penalise observers. </p>
<p>Basically, election-related grievances are strong in all of these countries. But while Malawi and Guatemala guarantee rights of association, the closed autocracies at the upper-right corner of the graph severely repress any form of civil society engagement. Domestic observers are routinely jailed, harassed and denied access to polling places. </p>
<p>Thus, grievances and political opportunities both seem to be important drivers of observer access.</p>
<h2>What’s happening in the outliers?</h2>
<p>Iran is an interesting outlier. It is in the mid-range of electoral integrity. The PEI experts saw prohibitive restrictions on international monitors, but much freer domestic watchdogs. </p>
<p>Due to the country’s pariah status, no international aid spending provides supply-side factors for NGOs to monitor elections in Iran. More importantly, the legal framework does <a href="https://www.ndi.org/files/Iran-Summary-Report-091713-ENG.pdf">not provide</a> for accreditation of international observers. </p>
<p>While independent citizen groups are not allowed, Iran’s Guardian Council and the General Inspection Organisation may field observers. This provides at least some <a href="http://pomed.org/wp-content/uploads/POMED-Iran-Election-Guide.pdf">domestic oversight</a>. Given the regime’s demonstrated ability to quell even large-scale contention about fraudulent elections, it <a href="http://hyde.research.yale.edu/Hafner-Burton_Hyde_Jablonski.pdf">might be more willing</a> to grant some access to domestic rather than international observers.</p>
<p>Conversely, Kazakhstan – another outlier – severely represses domestic NGOs while allowing some access to international watchdogs. The country, being part of the former Soviet space and a field of operations of the <a href="http://www.osce.org">OSCE</a>, faces stronger regional pressures to allow such access. However, by cracking down on domestic NGOs, the regime might be trying to deprive foreign observers of their primary information source.</p>
<p>In addition, the <a href="http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/153566">OSCE report</a> on the 2015 election in Kazakhstan questioned the independence of a prominent observer group due to a lack of transparency in its funding. This suggests a strategy of closely managing some domestic observers and restricting independent ones.</p>
<p>Overall, grievances and political opportunities go a long way to explaining where and why election monitors are restricted. Both domestic and international observers face the most adverse environment and few opportunities to operate in countries where electoral contests have low integrity. These are the very places where their work may be most needed. </p>
<p>Observers enjoy a more conducive environment where elections already have high integrity. Despite such open access, often fewer domestic monitors are active in these countries. This may be simply because there are fewer grievances associated with poor electoral integrity. </p>
<p>Once more is known about both – the presence or absence of observers, and whether or not they are restricted – we can begin to unpack their possible impact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Grömping receives funding from The Electoral Integrity Project. </span></em></p>Election monitoring has become an international norm for maintaining electoral integrity. A new survey finds a world of difference between the high hopes and dire realities of poll-watching.Max Grömping, PhD Candidate, Electoral Integrity Project, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/482212015-12-09T23:41:51Z2015-12-09T23:41:51ZFrom Africa to America, manipulation and money make elections less than truly democratic<p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/democracy-futures">Democracy Futures</a> series, a <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/democracy-futures/">joint global initiative</a> with the <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/">Sydney Democracy Network</a>. The project aims to stimulate fresh thinking about the many challenges facing democracies in the 21st century.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>2016 is almost upon us and with it the global media event that is the US presidential election. In November, Americans will vote for their next national leader – a practice more than 90% of countries share.</p>
<p>In West Africa, the people of Burkina Faso voted last month in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/27/world/africa/burkina-faso-elections.html?_r=0">national elections</a>. The vote followed a popular uprising last year that ousted the president of 27 years, Blaise Compaoré, after he tried to extend his rule.</p>
<p>An election date of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/central-african-republic-announces-fresh-elections">December 13</a> has been set in the Central African Republic. The vote was postponed in October due to violence.</p>
<p>The spread of elections after the Cold War led to a burst of optimistic scholarship about the prospects for democracy around the world. Citizens have never been more empowered; they get to choose their leaders (in theory, at least).</p>
<p>But optimism, especially in political matters, never lasts long. By the turn of the millennium, more and more regimes appeared to have made only cosmetic shifts (adopting democracy’s formal institutions but not its substance). Concerns about democratic backsliding and reversal grew.</p>
<p>New democracies in particular were criticised for holding elections despite lacking many civil liberties and even the basic rule of law. Elections could be rigged, manipulated and <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434">subverted to sustain authoritarianism</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103504/original/image-20151128-11618-1bnrq9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A park in Nairobi became home to military barracks to stop protests after Kenya’s 2007 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/44222307@N00/2203789368">DEMOSH/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The latter has been particularly true in Africa. A number of countries held multi-party elections at the time of decolonisation. By the late 1980s, however, 42 out of 47 regimes in Africa were closed autocracies or socialist regimes holding non-competitive, single-party elections.</p>
<p>At the end of the Cold War, a <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/filer_public/43/dd/43ddad26-aae0-48fb-895a-5609fd96e981/v-dem_working_paper_2015_3.pdf">rapid transition</a> took place. The proportion of countries in Africa holding multi-party elections jumped from 25% in 1988 to 84% in 1994. Today, 94% hold multi-party <a href="http://africanelections.tripod.com/index.html">elections for national office</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103987/original/image-20151202-14429-glwlbz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A long menu of manipulation</h2>
<p>The quality of elections in Africa still varies widely. They range from elections plagued by violence and fraud (like those in <a href="http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-kenya">Kenya in 2007</a> or the Democratic Republic of Congo <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/10/congo-election-result-violent-protests">in 2011</a>) to the relatively free and fair elections in (Ghana <a href="http://www.nai.uu.se/news/articles/ghanaian_elections_narrow/">in 2008</a> and Cape Verde <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2012/cape-verde">in 2011</a>).</p>
<p>The variety of methods that can be used to manipulate and undermine an election’s integrity is dazzling. The list includes manipulation of electoral legislation and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/">gerrymandering</a>, opposition and voter intimidation, flawed voter registries, biased media and campaigning, ballot box rigging and vote count manipulation. The possibilities come down to context, which includes a country’s level of democratisation.</p>
<p>Electoral manipulation can be classified into three categories: coercion, co-optation and institutional manipulation. These strategies are distributed along a continuum from more coercive to more co-optive.</p>
<p>One way to determine election outcomes is to intimidate voters and opposition candidates to reduce competition sufficiently for the incumbent to stay in power. Another way is vote buying to “persuade” voters with gifts and financial rewards. A third strategy is to manipulate institutions – that is, the legal framework and administration of elections.</p>
<p>All these practices require organisational and financial resources. However, some are more costly than others.</p>
<p>For example, manipulating electoral institutions may be relatively easy for incumbent political actors. Vote buying often requires more extensive financial resources and organisational networks. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103506/original/image-20151128-11628-29uvx5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Manipulation of results often occurs without voters’ knowledge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Truthout.org/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It makes sense that political actors choose the cheapest, least visible and most effective forms of manipulation. The aim is to avoid attracting formal and informal sanctions, in the form of legal prosecution or depleting resources, and losing legitimacy among citizens.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9680150&fileId=S0017257X15000068">study</a> of electoral manipulation in Africa between 1986 and 2012 found institutional manipulation of electoral management and administration, along with the tabulation of results, likely to be most effective. Electoral institutions are highly accessible to incumbents. Most of their work is “behind the scenes”, so in many cases institutional rigging is the least costly and least visible option. </p>
<p>The next most favoured tactic is coercion. Though intimidation is more visible, it involves relatively little cost and is quite effective. Vote buying is the most costly and least effective type of manipulation.</p>
<p>It makes sense, then, to expect political actors to prefer institutional manipulation and coercion to vote buying. However, the options available to them – the “menu of manipulation” – depend on the political and economic context of each election.</p>
<p>Political actors will not be able to get away with manipulating electoral institutions or intimidation in more developed democracies. In such countries, independent media and judiciaries will denounce (and prosecute) such behaviour. The manipulation of institutions only really succeeds in authoritarian regimes where the rule of law is weak and the bureaucracy vulnerable to partisan capture.</p>
<h2>Not all good things go together</h2>
<p>This means that, paradoxically, as countries move towards democracy, they experience an initial increase in vote buying. </p>
<p>The new <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/filer_public/40/1f/401f4c6b-f336-44f1-88ed-5ce0a02f0061/v-dem_codebook_v3.pdf">Varieties of Democracy database</a> includes almost 400 fine-grained indicators of democracy in 173 countries from 1900 until 2012. These reveal a trade-off between different types of electoral manipulation. When institutional manipulation and coercion is higher, vote buying is lower; as democratisation progresses, there is a shift in the opposite direction.</p>
<p>It seems democracy in Africa promises better administered but not necessarily fairer elections. Not all good things go together. The move towards democratisation will mean more money in politics, more patronage and more clientelistic offers thrown around, at least in the short to medium term.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/105157/original/image-20151209-15564-1hnrx2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2011 Occupy Wall Street protests gave voice to concerns about the Koch brothers and money politics in the US.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/shankbone/6183371761/in/photolist-aqpoZX-aCmcQq-aw2pqK-ariLUk-aCiJ6k-aCmnwE-aCmQMw-aCiwFF-c8C9jy-c593zC-bUCWJz-ayVh4W-bfTsKg-auE2du-bfTMo2-aukZrC-bfUnH8-bfUvyn-bfUx6i-bfUqdt-bfUkBH-bfTyyt-bfUdTT-bfTwE8-bfUu6M-bfUmBp-bfTWPD-bfUipz-bfTuuM-bfTEK6-bfTxzv-bfTtyX-bfUcFH-bfTJY6-bfTUb6-kEFdvM-vBGJzR-zeYMLp-zkVuAX-roeHTP-q5ncQX-bfTHVg-bfTAJp-bfU2un-bfUhn4-bfTLdc-bfTBNe-bfTXPT-bfTVk8-bfUjwk">flickr/David Shankbone</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whether money politics will eventually decline as democratisation progresses remains to be seen. This trade-off poses questions about the quality of democracy not only in Africa but in established democracies like the US. Multibillionaires Charles and David Koch are projected to spend <a href="http://www.politifact.com/virginia/statements/2015/nov/06/bernie-s/sanders-says-koch-brothers-are-outspending-either-/">US$900 million</a> backing Republican candidates in the 2016 presidential campaign.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/02/us/politics/money-in-politics-poll.html?_r=0">CBS newspoll</a> this year, Americans, regardless of political affiliation, agreed that wealth has too much influence on elections. They also agreed that candidates who win office promote policies that help their donors.</p>
<p>In Africa or America, money politics is a continuing concern – underscoring that high-quality democracy depends on more than just elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolien van Ham receives funding from the Australian Research Council's DECRA funding scheme (project number RG142911, project name DE150101692). The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, based on the author's research, and in no way represent the views of the ARC. </span></em></p>Voting for national leaders has become the global norm in a remarkably short time – in Africa in 1988, only 25% of countries had multiparty elections, but 94% do today. Yet all is not well.Carolien van Ham, Lecturer in Comparative Politics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/448882015-07-23T04:19:05Z2015-07-23T04:19:05ZMoney makes world of politics go round, and keeping it clean isn’t simple<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89267/original/image-20150722-31241-yywzz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The haste to deregulate political finance has led to political participation in the US becoming highly unequal.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Jason Reed</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do Russia, the US and South Africa have in common? Not often lumped together, all three countries face significant challenges regulating money in politics.</p>
<p>Through the careful manipulation and extreme regulation of political finance, Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party have been able to entrench their rule. In South Africa, the complete lack of regulation – bar public funding – has served the African National Congress well to maintain its dominance. The US has created a system of political finance that ensures inherently unequal opportunities for participation.</p>
<p>But Australians need not look offshore to see how debilitating the misuse of money and state resources is for representative government. The Independent Commission Against Corruption has revealed the extent of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-21/untangling-the-web-how-the-icac-scandal-unfolded/5686346">scandals in NSW politics</a> in recent years.</p>
<p>The role of money in politics challenges both rich and poor countries. Its abuse raises problems of graft, corruption and cronyism. It undermines legitimacy and governance.</p>
<p>However, money is essential for mobilising election campaigns, sustaining political party organisations and communicating with citizens. And countries like Sweden have managed to avoid falling foul of malfeasance and graft, despite almost no regulation of money in politics.</p>
<p>So, how can the role of money in politics be cleaned up most effectively? New evidence is available from a comparative report and dataset just released by the <a href="http://moneypoliticstransparency.org/">Money, Politics and Transparency</a> project, produced by <a href="https://www.globalintegrity.org/">Global Integrity</a>, the <a href="http://www.sunlightfoundation.com">Sunlight Foundation</a> and the <a href="http://www.electoralintegrityproject.com">Electoral Integrity Project</a>.</p>
<p>The Money, Politics and Transparency project investigated three crucial questions: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>How do countries around the world attempt to regulate the role of money in politics? </p></li>
<li><p>What triggers landmark reforms? </p></li>
<li><p>What “works”, what fails, and why?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The <a href="http://www.moneypoliticsandtransparency.org">project website</a> presents evidence from its political finance indicators, comparing 54 countries worldwide. The report compares how this problem is tackled in emerging economies as diverse as India, Mexico, South Africa and Russia, as well as in established democracies such as Britain, Japan, Sweden and the US.</p>
<h2>How do states regulate money in politics?</h2>
<p>Policies regulating the role of money in politics include disclosure requirements, contribution limits, spending caps and public subsidies. Most countries use a combination of these policies to try to regulate the flow of money into the political arena. </p>
<p>Another way to think about regulation is the degree to which governments intervene in the system of political finance. This can range from laissez-faire or minimal intervention, such as having only transparency requirements, to extremely comprehensive regulations involving all four policies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89253/original/image-20150722-31244-11fnup.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.idea.int/political-finance/">data</a> from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, the project used statistical techniques to show that while countries such as South Africa, Sweden and India have more laissez-faire policies, others such as Brazil, Indonesia and Russia are more interventionist.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89254/original/image-20150722-31203-8kcn1e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The degree of state regulation of political finance around the world, from less (yellow) to more (red).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is difficult to say whether more or less legal control is better. This is, in large part, because effective regulation requires enforcement. India has a highly regulated system of political financing but its enforcement capabilities are so weak that more laws simply lead to almost all political actors increasing their efforts to find loopholes. </p>
<p>And not every country is like Sweden. Its unique social and political culture allows it to have a highly effective and egalitarian system of political funding. Sweden has high levels of transparency and a level playing field in party competition – despite almost no regulation.</p>
<p>The project’s political finance indicators find that transparency requirements are one of the most common reforms implemented during the last decade. But disclosure rules are often inconsistently applied. </p>
<p>The results suggest that eight out of ten countries have statutes requiring parties and/or candidates to submit contribution and expenditure reports. But this rarely happens during campaign periods. The public is therefore unable to access much of the information reported to oversight authorities.</p>
<p>Further, restrictions on contributions and expenditures are often undermined by loopholes. For example, laws often limit the amount an individual can donate directly to a political party or to a candidate, but not both. Similar loopholes in regard to anonymous and corporate donations are common. </p>
<p>Spending limits also fail in many cases. Few countries also regulate election spending by non-profits, unions and independent groups. This is regarded as a private activity.</p>
<p>Finally, states have adopted public funding and subsidy laws to reduce dependence upon private sector donors and the dwindling band of party members. In practice, however, funds can be unfairly allocated or subject to misuse and abuse by incumbent parties and candidates.</p>
<h2>How do we clean up politics?</h2>
<p>Designing a “good” system of political financing will necessarily entail trade-offs between values such as individual freedom of expression and equitable political competition. </p>
<p>There is no one-size-fits-all design. Much will depend on country-specific factors that determine which values are emphasised. </p>
<p>For example, the US is all about individual freedoms. This is acutely reflected in its haste to deregulate political finance. The trade-off is that political participation becomes highly unequal.</p>
<p>Effective laws depend upon enforcement capabilities, political will and autonomous oversight agencies. However, oversight bodies are often hamstrung through a lack of merit-based appointments, independent leadership, technical capacity and authority. Partisan appointments, insufficient staff and budgets and/or a lack of substantive legal power hinder oversight bodies in countries as diverse as the US, Romania, Nigeria and Russia.</p>
<p>Countries should not rely on a single policy tool to try to control money in politics. And policies must be applied in a consistent way. </p>
<p>For instance, public funding without spending or contribution limits can lead to a campaign finance arms race. Disclosure requirements without spending caps or equitable public funding may erode public trust in the electoral process. The project finds that it is more effective to use a balanced mix of regulations fitting each country.</p>
<p>Lax regulation can lead to skyrocketing campaign costs, corruption, cronyism and winner-take-all politics. And yet, excessive regulation can lead to loophole-seeking and entrenched elites.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44888/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Abel van Es does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The role of money in politics challenges rich and poor countries worldwide. Its abuse raises problems of graft, corruption and cronyism, undermining legitimacy and governance.Andrea Abel van Es, Senior Research Fellow, Electoral Integrity Project, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/426282015-06-03T04:34:40Z2015-06-03T04:34:40ZPockets of progress in Africa’s election landscape<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83706/original/image-20150602-19225-1rd9o0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters line up in Nigeria's recent election. It was deemed free, fair and relatively peaceful. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If democracy is understood as a broad concept that includes regular free and fair elections, a system of government that ensures greater public participation, freedom of expression and the right to protest and challenge governments, then Africa is still lagging far behind democracies in Asia, South and North America and Europe. </p>
<p>As it is, very few elections in Africa can be deemed to be free and fair. Some can be considered free only in so far as there is no intimidation. But, large-scale <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/robert-mugabes-zimbabwe-election-victory-was-a-masterclass-in-electoral-fraud-8744348.html">fraud</a> remains a problem.</p>
<p>For elections to be free and fair, their level of organisation, logistics, preparations, training of electoral staff and equipment must all be optimal so that when the results are announced, even the losers have <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/may/29/nigeria-elections-free-fair-democracy-kofi-annan">no doubt</a> about the outcome. </p>
<p>Compared to other parts of the world, Africa is not a high flyer in the area of election management. This can be attributed to the scourge of violence, fraud, corruption and intimidation. On top of this, many election management bodies are staffed mostly by party apparatchiks or governing party members. This means that they are unable to conduct elections impartially.</p>
<h2>The bad news</h2>
<p>The African Union holds its 25th <a href="http://summits.au.int/en/25thsummit/events/25th-african-union-summit-hold-south-africa">summit</a> in Johannesburg next week. Elections on the continent over the past two months will give it cause for serious deliberation, as well as celebration.</p>
<p>Burundi will no doubt feature prominently on the agenda. The African Union is engaged in frenetic efforts to avert further <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/climate-fear-engulfs-burundi-ahead-polls-160153901.html">bloodshed</a> in the wake of pre-election protests sparked by President Pierre Nkurunziza’s quest for a third term in office.</p>
<p>African leaders have urged Nkurunziza’s government to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32953459">postpone</a> Burundi’s parliamentary, local municipal as well as presidential elections until the <a href="http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/05/31/stopping-violence-burundi">conditions</a> in the country are conducive for holding credible polls.</p>
<p>African Union leaders will no doubt remind Nkurunziza that elections are meant to comply with the African Union <a href="http://www.au.int/en/sites/default/files/AFRICAN_CHARTER_ON_DEMOCRACY_ELECTIONS_AND_GOVERNANCE.pdf">Charter</a> on Democracy, Elections and Governance, the African Union <a href="http://www2.ohchr.org/english/law/compilation_democracy/ahg.htm">Declaration</a> on Principles Governing Democratic Elections and the <a href="http://www.njas.helsinki.fi/pdf-files/vol13num3/akokpari2.pdf">NEPAD</a> Declaration on Democracy, Political, Economic and Corporate Governance. </p>
<p>They may need to do more. It remains to be seen whether Nkurunziza will heed the counsel of his peers or snub them. If he chooses to ignore them, he will be flouting the provisions of the charter on good elections. </p>
<p>The African Union’s advice to Burundi is to be commended as it affirms the provisions of Article 3 (10) of the <a href="http://www.au.int/en/sites/default/files/AFRICAN_CHARTER_ON_DEMOCRACY_ELECTIONS_AND_GOVERNANCE.pdf">Charter</a>. This condemns and rejects unconstitutional changes of government. Its message is unassailable and unambiguous.</p>
<h2>The good news</h2>
<p>But it is not all doom and gloom when it comes to elections on the continent. Most significantly, Nigeria, which has the biggest economy, has a new popularly elected-president, <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-new-president-faces-uphill-task-of-making-economic-growth-benefit-all-42537">General Muhammadu Buhari</a>. </p>
<p>Buhari is succeeding former president <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12192152">Goodluck Jonathan</a>, the first time since Nigeria’s independence that an opposition leader has defeated an incumbent. Jonathan conceded defeat after an election that was considered free, fair and relatively peaceful.</p>
<p>The recent Ethiopian election also offered some good news. The African Union <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/au-observers-say-ethiopian-poll-was-calm-peaceful-credible/2791141.html">observer mission</a>, the only monitoring group overseeing the election, declared the general election up to the organisation’s standards. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83708/original/image-20150602-19255-928twq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman casting a vote in Ethiopia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the election was not without <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/ethiopia-elections-2015-guide-no-western-observers-monitor-vote-already-marred-1933303">controversy</a>. The opposition accused the governing party of electoral <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/05/ethiopia-ruling-party-eprdf-sweeps-elections-150527133916799.html">fraud</a>. </p>
<h2>More election tests lie ahead</h2>
<p>The African Union will be hoping for a repeat of the Nigerian success story in other elections scheduled to take place on the continent later this year. They are: </p>
<ul>
<li>Cote d’Ivoire – Presidential: October 2015</li>
<li>Burkina Faso – Presidential: November 2015</li>
<li>Central Africa Republic – General Elections: 2015 (to be confirmed)</li>
<li>Comoros – Presidential: December 2015</li>
<li>Guinea – Presidential: November 2015</li>
<li>Tanzania - General Elections: October 2015</li>
</ul>
<p>Bigger countries such as Ethiopia, Egypt and South Sudan often face <a href="http://ruralreporters.com/challenges-facing-africas-elections/">massive challenges</a> due to their expansive terrains and huge populations. In addition, the three share borders with countries that are in political turmoil such as Libya, Yemen, Somalia and Eritrea. </p>
<p>Challenges with running elections are also compounded by the pervasive security threat posed by rebel forces such as <a href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/DRCs-defeated-M23-rebels-active-again-20140114">M23</a> in the Democratic Republic of Congo, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-nigeria-schoolgirls/boko-haram-massacre-survivors-flee-nigeria-island-lake-chad-n367571">Boko Haram</a> in Nigeria and <a href="http://www.criticalthreats.org/somalia/al-shabaab-leadership">al-Shabaab</a> in Kenya and Somalia. All have great potential to derail elections and stall the pace of <a href="http://ruralreporters.com/challenges-facing-africas-elections/">democratisation</a> that Africa has been undergoing since the early 1990s.</p>
<h2>Opportunities for the future</h2>
<p>A few countries, such as Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, South Africa, Mauritius, Seychelles and Ghana, have had fairly good experiences that they can share with the rest of the continent and the world. </p>
<p>South Africa, in particular, recently raised the bar in terms of good election management practices. It has earned praise in particular for its innovative political party liaison <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Parties/Party-Liaison-Committees/">committees</a>, which act as conflict prevention or resolution mechanisms between parties and the country’s <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/">Electoral Commission</a>. </p>
<p>Namibia too has been applauded for introducing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-28/namibian-election-first-in-africa-to-use-electronic-voting/5927206">electronic voting machines</a> for the first time in its general elections last year. </p>
<p>Election management practices have been changing for the better since the 1990s. Ghana, South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Seychelles and Namibia lead the pack in best practice by their <a href="http://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/1227">electoral management bodies</a>.</p>
<p>Undoubtedly, such positive experiences need to be multiplied if Africa is to make a meaningful contribution to the world of election management and democratisation. </p>
<p>Election management bodies work best when led by politically impartial officials. The result is that many African countries are increasingly accepting the legitimacy of elected governments which derive their mandate from <a href="https://www.ndi.org/files/African_Elections_Best_Practices_ENG.pdf">democratic elections</a>. </p>
<p>Not so long ago it was unthinkable for a sitting head of state to be defeated at the polls. Recent events in Nigeria, Senegal, Zambia and Malawi point to progress.</p>
<p>But for worrying signs in Burundi, Africa appears to be finally ridding itself of the president-for-life syndrome. Yet, <em>de facto</em> one-party systems dominate in many countries, especially those that are governed by former liberation movements such as Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Algeria.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kealeboga J Maphunye does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Compared to other parts of the world, Africa is not a high-flyer in the area of election management. This can be attributed to the scourge of violence, fraud, corruption and intimidation.Kealeboga J Maphunye, Wiphold Brigalia Bam Chair in Electoral Democracy in Africa, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.