tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/emergency-management-17550/articlesEmergency management – The Conversation2024-02-07T16:13:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219592024-02-07T16:13:40Z2024-02-07T16:13:40ZWhy Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies<p>Canadians are facing larger disasters on a more frequent basis. There is no doubt that some of these recent and future events are the result of an increasingly unstable climate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fiona-hits-atlantic-canada-climate-change-means-the-region-will-see-more-frequent-storms-191313">Fiona hits Atlantic Canada: Climate change means the region will see more frequent storms</a>
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<p>Whenever more people become exposed by living in hazardous parts of the country — including those not directly attributed to climate change such as earthquakes or train derailments — their disaster risk also increases. This combines with social and economic changes, like poverty and aging populations, to increase community vulnerability. </p>
<p>Despite these evolving challenges, our emergency management systems remain strongly rooted in <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/hv%20551.5.c2%20m363%201998-eng.pdf">civil defence</a> practices developed during the Cold War. These systems <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-canadas-fractured-emergency.pdf">are over-stressed</a> by recent events and <a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">continue to be underfunded</a> by provincial and federal governments. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">Until we address chronic underfunding, Canada will keep failing at emergency management</a>
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<p>Because Canadians tend only to pay close attention to these shortcomings when disasters occur, governments <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-disaster-response-agency-1.6868209">and the media</a> remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them.</p>
<h2>Disasters cost billions</h2>
<p>Natural and technological disasters represent a significant financial burden on citizens, businesses and governments. Disaster response actions and associated recovery assistance funds have cost approximately $5.75 billion over the past 10 years, according to <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/rcvr-dsstrs/dsstr-fnncl-ssstnc-rrngmnts/index-en.aspx">Public Safety Canada</a>.</p>
<p>However, proposals to increase response capabilities in isolation aren’t the most efficient way to reduce disaster risks. Canada, especially at the federal level, <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/index-en.aspx">has developed strategies</a> and made commitments to adopt a more comprehensive approach, but it’s failing to deliver results. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mtgtn-strtgy/index-en.aspx#a00">Disaster Management Strategy</a> acknowledges the value of hazard mitigation and community adaptation, but there is very little to require their implementation. </p>
<p>Instead of improving mitigation, changes to the national emergency management system <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-urgently-needs-a-fema-like-emergency-management-agency-207400">currently being discussed</a> in the <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/12/15/news/canada-test-options-national-emergency-response-agency">national media</a> include the creation of a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10172535/canada-emergency-response-agency-sajjan/">federal disaster response agency</a>.</p>
<p>But that’s not likely going to be effective in managing disasters in an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canadas-political-system-makes-it-difficult-to-fight-floods-118511">Why Canada’s political system makes it difficult to fight floods</a>
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<p>One recognized problem is federal and provincial legislation is now out of date compared to emergency management best practices. These laws are overly dependent on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2014.889392">emergency powers</a> stemming from our experiences in the last century.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, the provinces created “<a href="https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1460&context=cmh">civil defence</a>” systems against enemy attacks, with the option to use such systems in the event of natural disasters. These early laws became their first emergency management legislation. Governmental use of these existing powers, including suspending civil rights, has since been the only approach available. </p>
<p>It makes more sense for governments, <a href="https://parl.canadiana.ca/view/oop.debates_HOC2104_01/499">as Prime Minister Louis St. Laurent stated in 1951</a> with regard to using the War Measures Act, “to avoid taking powers of the grave character which no democratic government wishes to have, as a government, unless those powers are really necessary for the safety of the state.”</p>
<h2>Changing the Emergencies Act</h2>
<p>A review of the existing <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-4.5/index.html">Emergencies Act</a> is clearly necessary. </p>
<p>The current wording establishes different powers available to the federal government under four types of emergencies. </p>
<p>Public welfare emergencies cover natural and technological disasters, while public order emergencies involve civil unrest, as was the case of the Emergencies Act’s use in February 2022 to end the <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-introduction.pdf">so-called Freedom Convoy’s occupation of Ottawa</a>. </p>
<p>The other two types are focused on national defence related to international emergencies and wars. This may contribute to the perception that disasters are a <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/canada/military-there-for-canadians-in-emergencies/wcm/82301acc-5d4d-4428-b43e-b617845f54ea">national defence responsibility</a>. </p>
<p>The public welfare section of the Emergencies Act is clearly inappropriate and redundant considering provincial jurisdiction over emergency management. Provincial laws and systems cover the same range of special powers, and the Emergencies Act prevents the government of Canada from interfering in the provinces’ responses.</p>
<p>The section should be replaced with a process for the federal government to formally recognize provincial and municipal states of emergency. This would acknowledge decision-making belongs at the local and provincial level while giving federal cabinet ministers the ability to direct departmental resources to support provincial responses. </p>
<p>In fact, a provision in the federal <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/index.html">Emergency Management Act</a> that describes how Ottawa should prepare for disasters <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/page-1.html#h-214379">already sets a requirement for ministers to do this</a>. It states: “Each minister shall include in an emergency management plan: (a) any programs, arrangements or other measures to assist provincial governments and, through the provincial governments, local authorities.” </p>
<h2>No clear role</h2>
<p>The current emergency management system, designed around the division of roles, responsibilities and powers between federal and provincial governments, does not have a clear role for a national response agency. </p>
<p>Nor can the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9882263/canada-military-help-emergencies/">Canadian Armed Forces</a> continue to be tasked as a routine solution. The resources required in times of disaster go beyond the traditional 911 emergency services to include utilities, private and not-for-profit agencies and a greater role for citizen involvement. But these resources are located in provinces and organized locally.</p>
<p>Emergency management therefore needs to be integrated into decision-making by all levels of government and communities to be effective. </p>
<p>There are still unrealized opportunities to improve inter-provincial co-operation, and there’s still an urgent need for better funding. The creation of a response-focused national agency will not address these underlying problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Lindsay is affiliated with the Canadian RIsk and Hazards Network and the International Association of Emergency Managers </span></em></p>Governments and the media remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them. Here’s what must change — and will and won’t work — as Canada faces increased disaster risks.Jack Lindsay, Associate Professor and Chair of Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies Department, Brandon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145772023-10-02T19:12:09Z2023-10-02T19:12:09ZFire authorities are better prepared for this summer. The question now is – are you?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551324/original/file-20231002-15-d4sb4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4281%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last year, campers had to evacuate <a href="https://www.thegreynomads.com.au/caves-2/">because of floods</a>. This year, they’re evacuating because of fire. Over Victoria’s long weekend, campers and residents in Gippsland had to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-01/gippsland-fires-burn-briagolong-loch-sport-erica/102922014">flee fast-moving fires</a>, driven by high winds. </p>
<p>The megafires of the 2019–2020 Black Summer came off the back of an earlier El Niño climate cycle. Now, after three years of rain and floods, El Niño is arriving on Australian shores again. With it comes fire weather – hot, dry and windy. </p>
<p>The question is – <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2023/09/30/climate-change-and-the-fire-season-ahead#mtr">are we ready?</a> </p>
<p>Last week, emergency management minister Murray Watt moved to reassure an anxious country. “Australia is much better prepared for this season than we were heading into Black Summer,” he said, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-24/australia-better-prepared-for-bushfire-threat-than-black-summer/102895018">speaking after</a> a national summit on disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>Yes, authorities are better prepared. But by and large, we as individuals are not. Far too often, Australians think it’s the job of the authorities to be ready, which breeds a false sense of security. </p>
<h2>This fire season may pack a punch</h2>
<p>The Black Summer bushfires of the 2019–20 summer were a stark reminder of how fire prone Australia is. But they were more than that – they <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">were not normal</a>. Around 20% of all of our forests went up in flame. </p>
<p>2019 was the <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2019-2019-was-australias-hottest-and-driest-year-on-record/#:%7E:text=Last%20year%20was%20Australia's%20hottest,are%20the%20worst%20on%20record.">hottest and driest</a> year on record for Australia. But 2023 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/01/australia-records-warmest-winter-caused-by-global-heating-and-sunny-conditions">may break that record</a>, as climate records topple around the world and extreme weather events multiply. This year is likely to be the hottest on record globally, and next year the record <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-the-return-of-el-nino-means/#:%7E:text=Looking%20ahead%20%E2%80%93%20with%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o,above%20the%20pre%2Dindustrial%20average">may well fall again</a>. </p>
<p>Sustained rain from three successive La Niña years has driven widespread vegetation growth across Australia’s 125 million hectares of forest, bush and grasslands. Over the coming weeks, many areas could dry out quickly and become tinder for bushfires. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here's how to prepare</a>
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<h2>Climate cycles do give us time to prepare</h2>
<p>Australia’s wet-dry climate cycles have one benefit – during wet years, fire authorities get a reprieve. That lets governments, emergency services and the community <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/bushfire-royal-commission-revisited-after-el-nino-weather/102880144">coordinate, plan and prepare</a> for bushfire seasons ahead. </p>
<p>That’s why Minister Watt can accurately claim Australia is better prepared. The capacity and capability of our emergency services to predict the spread of fires and issue timely warnings to communities is better than it has ever been. In planning and preparedness for natural hazards such as bushfires and floods, we have seen <a href="https://nema.gov.au/about-us/media-centre/Preparedness-Summit-250923">better integration</a> between government, emergency services, civil and private sector organisations.</p>
<p>Planned burning is still a challenge. It’s tough to find the right weather conditions to burn off fuel loads at low intensity, without risking the blaze spreading or threatening property. </p>
<p>But these burns are done much more <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-searching-for-objectivity-in-burning/">strategically these days</a>. Rather than simply aim to hit a target of hectares burned, authorities are now focused on burning fuel in areas where it could endanger lives and damage critical infrastructure during bushfire season.</p>
<p>These advances give us good reason for confidence. But not for complacency. </p>
<p>Every bushfire is unique. And our fires are, by and large, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">getting worse</a>. It would be an error to think our investment in <a href="https://reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/fighting-fires-from-space-how-satellites-and-other-tech-could-prevent-catastrophic-bushfires">smoke-detecting algorithms and satellite monitoring</a> and the development of the new <a href="https://afdrs.com.au/">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> will spare Australia from the loss of life, property and environmental destruction observed during the Black Summer fires. </p>
<p>Why? Decades of bushfires have shown even the best preparation can be found wanting on days of severe bushfire danger when firestorms can develop quickly and behave unpredictably.</p>
<h2>For Australia to be ready, you need to be ready</h2>
<p>While megafires happen – and draw the most headlines – most bushfires are local rather than national events. </p>
<p>That means we must prepare at a local level.</p>
<p>If you’re faced with a bushfire threat, you have only <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12592">two options</a>. </p>
<p>You can stay and defend your property – as long as you are physically and mentally prepared, have adequate firefighting resources, and your property is prepared and defensible. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689">Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why</a>
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<p>Or you can leave early, which means making a judgement call about the best time to go in a calm manner. That doesn’t mean panic – if there is time, it can be possible to do things like clear fuels from around the home and dampen the surrounds to give your house a better chance of surviving undefended.</p>
<p>Which should you choose? It depends, in part, on where you live and your personal circumstances. Remember too that most Australians will never experience a bushfire firsthand. </p>
<p>Every community has a different risk profile and people and communities vary considerably in their levels of preparedness and planning. </p>
<p>If a fire does start and head towards your house, you could be taken entirely by surprise if you have no bushfire plan. </p>
<p>To be clear, this is arguably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962#:%7E:text=Under%20Catastrophic%20fire%20conditions%20all,of%20bushfires%20and%20their%20unpredictability.">largest gap</a> in Australia’s fire preparedness. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="burned forest near road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Which way out? Planning ahead could save your life.</span>
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<h2>Planning is easy – if done ahead</h2>
<p>The question of whether Australia is ready for the fire season should be reframed. The better question is: are Australians ready? </p>
<p>The good news is, it’s easier than you think to make a fire plan. As a household, it might take just 10 minutes. Your state or territory government has a website showing you how: </p>
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<li><a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/your-bushfire-plan">Victoria</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/resources/bush-fire-survival-plan">New South Wales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://bushfire-survival-plan.qfes.qld.gov.au/">Queensland</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-a-fire-be-prepared/make-a-plan/5-minute-bushfire-plan/">South Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://mybushfireplan.wa.gov.au/">Western Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://esa.act.gov.au/cbr-be-emergency-ready/bushfires/bushfire-ready">Australian Capital Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://securent.nt.gov.au/prepare-for-an-emergency/fires/bushfires/survival-plans">Northern Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colbushfirePrepareActSurvive&fbclid=IwAR1mRkwm89K_SlAnUXUm0LYwAQ7Hc8moJ7c9AoNgkmdPVDxxIPx7WMLJzvk">Tasmania</a></li>
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<p>Why plan ahead? Because it is vastly better to have a clear plan at your fingertips rather than frantically trying to figure out where your loved ones are, whether it’s too late to leave and whether you could realistically fight the fire – when the fire is on your doorstep. Faced by the reality of fire, many of us can freeze. </p>
<p>What firefighters <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes-128632">want us to learn</a> is that the critical decisions and actions which save lives and property in a bushfire are taken by us and our communities, not by politicians or agencies. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Australia's Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it</a>
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<p><em>John Schauble contributed significantly to this article. He has worked extensively in bushfire policy and research at state level and has volunteered for over 40 years as a firefighter.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Dwyer receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Many people are asking if Australian authorities are ready for the fire season. The real question to ask is – are we ready as individuals?Graham Dwyer, Course Director, Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074002023-06-12T16:47:21Z2023-06-12T16:47:21ZCanada urgently needs a FEMA-like emergency management agency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531423/original/file-20230612-258586-h91h6h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C0%2C1573%2C1185&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Sudbury 17 wildfire burns east of Mississagi Provincial Park near Elliot Lake, Ont., in this June 4, 2023 handout photo.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Handout, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Disasters often bring politicians, policymakers, researchers and the public to the discussion table. Due to their catastrophic impacts, disasters and emergencies prompt a large array of stakeholders to focus intently on the issues at hand, providing windows of opportunity for change. </p>
<p>This focus often exposes the operational, co-ordination and governance deficiencies and weaknesses of emergency management systems. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101207">Disasters like the ongoing wildfires in Canada</a> raise questions about whether the current system and approaches are best suited to protect people, property and the environment from hazards — and can bring about change and investment in corrective measures. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/predicting-and-planning-for-forest-fires-requires-modelling-of-many-complex-interrelated-factors-207185">Predicting and planning for forest fires requires modelling of many complex, interrelated factors</a>
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<p>Many of the world’s leading emergency management governance approaches and national agencies have gone through extensive changes and enhancement following major disaster events, <a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/fema-after-katrina">including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the United States following hurricane Katrina in 2005</a>.</p>
<p>The Canadian government is reportedly contemplating creating a national <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-marks-clean-air-day-with-worst-air-quality-in-the-world-as-feds-consider-disaster-response-agency-1.6431378">FEMA-type emergency management agency in Canada</a>. If so, what would it entail?</p>
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<img alt="Peaked buildings, one with a Canadian flag flying over it, in a smoky haze." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6113%2C3730&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531352/original/file-20230612-149863-wbv7bm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Wildfire smoke shrouds the skyline in Kingston, Ont., on June 6, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg</span></span>
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<h2>Canada and U.S. emergency management</h2>
<p>Modern emergency management systems in both Canada and the U.S. have a long history. Both emerged during the Second World War and Cold War era, focused on civil defence.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fema.gov/about/history#:%7E:text=Creation%20of%20FEMA,emergency%20management%20and%20civil%20defense.">FEMA was established in 1979</a> and has remained under the same name since then. Historically, the Canadian federal unit responsible for emergency management <a href="https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.2012.0090">has had an unstable host department and minister, name and portfolio</a>.</p>
<p>Public Safety Canada (PSC) has been responsible for emergency management at federal level since 2003. However, only a small portion of <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/index-en.aspx">PSC’s portfolio</a>, resources and structure is directly related to emergency management. Therefore, it’s important to compare FEMA with the branches of PSC that deal with emergency management, falling under the Ministry of Emergency Preparedness.</p>
<p>Despite many geographical, cultural, political and natural hazard similarities, Canada and the U.S. have many differences that influence how each country manages its emergencies. </p>
<p>However, both follow a relatively common and established principle that emergencies are managed by regional authorities and higher levels of governments are involved only if they’re overwhelmed. </p>
<p>Federal governments intervene upon requests from provincial, state or territorial governments that <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy-en.pdf">require resources beyond their capacity</a>. This is a response-focused approach.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman and two children sit in a boat on the water. The roof of a car is seen beside them in the water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531354/original/file-20230612-258586-o2hiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman and children who were stranded by high water due to flooding are rescued by a volunteer operating a boat in Abbotsford, B.C., in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>FEMA compared to Canada’s system</h2>
<p>Modern emergency management systems, however, are increasingly based on a <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/emergency-management-framework-ontario/principles-emergency-management">comprehensive emergency management</a> concept that includes mitigation and prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. </p>
<p>FEMA has reshaped itself over time to align with the comprehensive model of emergency management. But the PSC, despite some recent efforts such as developing the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/index-en.aspx">Emergency Management Strategy for Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/ntnl-rsk-prfl/index-en.aspx">National Risk Profile</a>, has mainly focused on the preparedness/response element of emergency management. </p>
<p>Although PSC is a large organization, its emergency management portfolio, budget, human resources and capabilities are very slim relative to FEMA. </p>
<p>FEMA plays major operational roles in emergency mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery with its various departments, programs, teams and resources. <a href="https://www.fema.gov/partnerships">It has several response agencies</a> that don’t exist at the federal level in Canada.</p>
<p>PSC’s role in emergencies is more about co-ordinating and mobilizing federal resources, such as the Armed Forces. While FEMA has become stronger in managing and responding to catastrophic events across the U.S., PSC has rarely been involved in similar large-scale events.</p>
<p>A close <a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/graphics/fema_org-chart_20230201.jpg">look at FEMA</a> <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/trnsprnc/brfng-mtrls/trnstn-bndrs/20230214/02-en.aspx">and PSC</a> emergency management organizational charts shows some of the key differences in how they both operate.</p>
<p>In Canada, provinces and territories have created their own emergency systems and work with local communities and the federal government around common frameworks and <a href="https://www.securitymagazine.com/articles/94787-canadian-government-launches-emergency-preparedness-awareness-campaign">a national strategy</a>. Provinces and territories with more resources and more disaster experiences <a href="https://news.gov.bc.ca/stories/earthquake-safety-strengthened-in-bc-with-new-early-warning-sensors">have created stronger emergency management systems</a>, but they’re still under stress during major emergencies such as the current wildfire events. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man carries a bag of groceries over a mound of debris and rubbage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531358/original/file-20230612-219998-haigns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man carries groceries through the devastation left by hurricane Fiona in Burnt Island, Newfoundland in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Emergency Management Agency of Canada?</h2>
<p>Considering the increasing frequency, intensity and complexity of emergencies across Canada, it’s evident that the status quo at the federal level is no longer a viable option. There have been enough warning signs, alarm bells and wake-up calls already. </p>
<p>Canada should leverage these events as an opportunity to make the changes needed by giving high priority to the establishment of a new system or agency in the chain of decision-making processes. </p>
<p>Canada should leverage these events as an opportunity and make the changes needed by establishing a new system or agency that can proactively respond to and prepare for emergencies.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Canada’s legal and governance structures in emergency management are mature and developed. Some efforts have been made in recent years towards making a better system. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The red glow of a forest forest is seen on the horizon, with trees and a field in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C30%2C3983%2C1810&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531367/original/file-20230612-260387-xvgue4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The red glow from a fire is shown in Edson, Alta., on June 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Handout - Government of Alberta- Alberta Wildfire-Wildfire information officer Caroline Charbonneau</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Creating a federal agency — let’s call it the Emergency Management Agency of Canada, or EMAC — would support comprehensive emergency management with adequate, reliable, trained and equipped teams and infrastructure. It would provide timely technical support and training and operational assistance without compromising or limiting the existing local and provincial roles in emergency management.</p>
<p>EMAC could be created under the Public Safety Canada umbrella or as a separate agency — whichever is most feasible under the existing laws and regulations, or by amending them. Canada already made a similar move after the 2003 SARS crisis <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/corporate/mandate/about-agency/history.html">by creating the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)</a> in 2004.</p>
<p>EMAC is the obvious next step forward as Canada faces an ever-increasing number of natural disasters and emergencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Creating a federal agency — let’s call it the Emergency Management Agency of Canada or EMAC — would support comprehensive emergency management as Canada faces more and more natural disasters.Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1742702022-01-06T14:39:13Z2022-01-06T14:39:13ZUntil we address chronic underfunding, Canada will keep failing at emergency management<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439423/original/file-20220104-15-1fbrsvl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6122%2C3941&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vehicles line up during a drive-through COVID-19 vaccine clinic at St. Lawrence College in Kingston, Ont., in early January 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic is different from the disasters Canadians are more familiar with. The public’s confusion partly stems from the fact that the pandemic doesn’t follow the usual pattern of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep21055?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">news media coverage</a> featuring stories about first responders dealing with the immediate harm and damage, and then moving on to the next story. </p>
<p>Instead we’ve had almost two years of public health and safety orders that have dramatically changed the way we work, travel and live. While requiring evacuation during a flood or wildfire is common sense, we’ve been dealing with emergency orders that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-dec31-2021-1.6301287">vary across the country</a>, come and go with each wave and have divided communities.</p>
<p>These emergency orders expose how disasters unfold and the status of the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2017-mrgnc-mngmnt-frmwrk/index-en.aspx">emergency management system in Canada</a>. Some of the characters are familiar, like mayors and fire chiefs, while others are equally important even though they are seldom talked about. To understand the role of these emergency managers, we need to understand disasters.</p>
<h2>Disasters are more about the aftermath</h2>
<p>It’s easy to think of disasters simply as the events that cause them. A tornado, an earthquake or a plane crash might all come to mind as examples of disasters. </p>
<p>But on Dec. 17, 2021, there was an <a href="https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/recent/2021/20211217.1213/index-en.php">earthquake in British Columbia</a> that was not a disaster because there was no major destruction or loss of life. This shows that there’s a threshold an impact must cross to be considered a disaster. </p>
<p>This threshold varies from place to place, changes over time and can impact different parts of our communities in different ways. This is obvious in Canada, where a few centimetres of snow can shut down Vancouver but barely matters in Saskatoon. </p>
<p>This threshold is really determined by the <a href="https://www.undrr.org/terminology/capacity#:%7E:text=Coping%20capacity%20is%20the%20ability,during%20disasters%20or%20adverse%20conditions.">community’s ability to cope</a> using its normal resources and methods. </p>
<p>In routine emergencies, we rely on our first responders working with partners in health and sometimes utility companies or others. </p>
<p>But in a disaster, these normal resources and relationships do not have the capability to meet the demand — such as when a mudslide closes a road so no fire engines can arrive — or they do not have the capacity, like when an entire town is on fire and there are simply not enough firefighters. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A firefighter points a water hose at a smoking spot on the ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439394/original/file-20220104-27-1cg2sil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A firefighter sprays water on hot spots remaining from a controlled burn the B.C. Wildfire Service conducted to help contain the White Rock Lake wildfire in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In these situations, emergency management <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/index-en.aspx">provides strategies</a> to extend our resources. </p>
<p>When these conditions occur, communities must take extraordinary measures. The federal government and every province have <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13642987.2014.889392">emergency management legislation</a> that empowers them to take actions are not normally considered acceptable. </p>
<p>These laws set out who can declare a formal state of emergency and what special powers the government can apply to help tackle the crisis. Most Canadians are now familiar with these powers as governments have used some to deal with the pandemic. </p>
<h2>Cracks have been exposed</h2>
<p>Every <a href="https://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/mrgnc-mgmt-rgnztns-en.aspx">province has an emergency management system</a>, usually at the local level, designed to guide our responses. The pandemic is showing the cracks in these systems.</p>
<p>The public demands help when a disaster strikes. Politicians hear their demands and meet it with first responders and financial assistance. The public learns about these actions via the media, which can create a misplaced sense of satisfaction that silences requests to properly prepare for future disasters and to fund preparedness initiatives.</p>
<p>Behind the scenes, in fact, emergency management systems often <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-government-criticized-for-slow-flood-aid-response/">perform poorly</a> due <a href="https://sencanada.ca/Content/SEN/Committee/392/defe/rep/rep13aug08Vol1-e.pdf">to long-term underfunding</a>. The underlying problem is that emergency management resources don’t match the importance of what they have to do in the event of a disaster. This shortfall only becomes apparent amid the disaster, when everything seems to be failing. </p>
<p>It’s difficult to determine exactly how much is spent on emergency management in Canada, or to compare it fairly to other countries, since the systems and budget items vary. The 2021 <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/tbs-sct/documents/planned-government-spending/main-estimates/2020-21/me-bpd-eng.pdf">budget line for emergency management</a> was about $273.8 million, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm">or around $7 per Canadian</a>. In the United States, the 2021 budget for the <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/fy_2021_dhs_bib_web_version.pdf">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> was approximately US$14.5 billion, ($18.6 billion in Canadian dollars) or nearly US$55 per American citizen. </p>
<p>The pandemic should lead to extensive changes in Canada’s emergency management system. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that public officials will pat themselves on the back, put on a brave face in response to any official inquiries or adverse media coverage and then allow emergency management to continue under-performing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bald man in a mask walks out of an office. Framed pictures are on the walls on either side of him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439393/original/file-20220104-13-173alom.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford steps out of his office to attend a news conference in Toronto to announce more COVID-19 lockdown measures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Accepting the status quo</h2>
<p>Politicians will accept this status quo because it doesn’t cost anything. The media will move on and the public will be given a false sense of security. Then we will repeat the dance over and over as each new disaster devastates our unprepared communities. </p>
<p>The pandemic is exposing the symptoms of this neglect. While the media and first responders focus on the cause of the disaster — in this case, COVID-19, but it could be the next the earthquake or wildfire — the emergency management system should also deal with the social and economic consequences.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/insurance-isnt-enough-governments-need-to-do-better-on-natural-disaster-resilience-173136">Insurance isn't enough: Governments need to do better on natural disaster resilience</a>
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<p>These longer term, community-oriented issues require planning and resources just as much as the initial physical response does. However, the emergency management system is poorly funded and lacks consistent attention between disasters. Chronic underfunding has <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/ntrnldt-mrgncy-mngmnt-plnnng/index-en.aspx">undermined confidence in emergency management</a> so the public, media and political leadership distrust the system when it’s most needed. </p>
<p>This creates a leadership vacuum. During the pandemic, public health practitioners have been expected to step beyond their areas of expertise and make decisions that would be better supported by emergency management. <a href="https://www.aglg.ca/app/uploads/sites/26/2018/04/Perspectives-Series-Booklet-Improving-Local-Government-Emergency-Management.pdf">Such support requires resources and organizational recognition of the role</a>. </p>
<p>Correcting these shortfalls is urgent if Canadians are to rely on our emergency management system in a future of more severe events. However, the solutions will require political will … a commodity as rare as toilet paper in a pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174270/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Lindsay has received funding in the past from Public Safety Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada. He is affiliated with the Canadian Risk and Hazards Network (CRHNet), the Canadian chapter of the International Association of Emergency Managers and is currently contributing to Canada's National Adaptation Strategy.</span></em></p>Canada’s emergency management system is poorly funded and lacks consistent attention between disasters. This chronic underfunding has undermined public confidence and trust in emergency management.Jack Lindsay, Associate Professor and Chair of Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies Department, Brandon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1618522021-06-14T17:59:33Z2021-06-14T17:59:33ZTackling burnout: How to deal with stress and safety in the workplace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406029/original/file-20210613-73475-1iofw11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C585%2C4950%2C2704&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta activated its emergency operations centre in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Centers for Disease Control/Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When I began working in disaster and emergency management, there was a funny anecdote suggesting the job was 98 per cent paperwork and two per cent adrenalin.</p>
<p>Looking around at my office environment, I failed to see much adrenalin. To make sense of this, I researched some major disasters and discovered that when they strike, emergency managers transition to working in <a href="https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/topics/Page17116.aspx">emergency co-ordination centres</a>. These nerve centres often look like something out of the movies, with people staring intently at their computers while large screens everywhere display critical information. </p>
<p>During the devastating <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/longform/fort-mcmurray-five-years-on-from-disaster">Fort McMurray wildfires in 2016</a>, which destroyed entire subdivisions and caused more than $1 billion in damage, I finally understood the “two per cent adrenalin” aspect of our work. For months, the work was non-stop and around the clock. Soon, I noticed the initial state of exhilaration was replaced by a state of exhaustion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A helicopter is seen in the smoke of a wildfire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406028/original/file-20210613-73866-1pw9bjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A helicopter battles a wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alta., in 2016. The wildfire forced nearly 90,000 to flee Canada’s oilsands region — and resulted in serious workplace stress for emergency workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At that time, I was reminded of <a href="https://drgabormate.com/book/when-the-body-says-no/">the 2004 book, <em>When the Body Says No: The Cost of Hidden Stress</em></a>, written by Canadian physician Gabor Maté, that outlines the four most stressful stimuli: Lack of information, uncertainty, lack of control and conflict. I observed that during a disaster, all of these factors are present in droves. </p>
<p>In a disaster, critical decisions must be made with incomplete or contradictory information. Lack of control and uncertainty emerge when navigating policies, guidelines and laws. There’s often conflict with resource allocation and conflicting priorities. </p>
<p>Other notable factors include atypical working hours, extremes of activity and a sedentary work environment. While some features are unique to our profession, I’m under no illusion that we’re alone in our experiences. Many other professions and positions face similar challenges.</p>
<h2>Exhaustion follows exhilaration</h2>
<p>While short-term workplace stress is to be expected, the problem emerges with long-term sustained stress. </p>
<p>As Hungarian scientist Hans Selye described in 1950 in his seminal <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK349158/#:%7E:text=Conflicting%20reactions%20to%20Selye's%20account,in%20London%20in%20June%201950">general adaptation syndrome</a> about workplace stress, after sustaining a period of exhilaration, stressed employees eventually reach the exhaustion phase and can no longer sustain additional pressure. Today in my clinical psychology practice, my clients who work in various fields tell me about exhaustion, irritability, impatience, trouble concentrating and taking in new information and feeling under-appreciated at work, with some even contemplating quitting their jobs. </p>
<p>In 2019, the World Health Organization identified a syndrome <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/28-05-2019-burn-out-an-occupational-phenomenon-international-classification-of-diseases">it labelled “burnout”</a> resulting from chronic workplace stress. Now people who report feeling depleted of energy or exhausted, mentally distanced from or cynical about their jobs and experiencing problems getting their work done can be diagnosed with a workplace injury. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman with her head in her hands in front of a laptops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406030/original/file-20210613-64042-ttj6a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The WHO labelled chronic workplace stress ‘burnout’ two years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elisa Ventur/Unsplash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Burnout as the result of workplace stress carries significant implications for employers. Canadian occupational health and safety standards <a href="https://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/psychosocial/mentalhealth_checklist_phs.html">require employers to protect the physical and mental health of their workers</a>. If people are meeting the criteria for burnout, organizations may be neglecting their legislated duty to ensure psychologically safe workplaces. </p>
<h2>Preventing, mitigating stress</h2>
<p>The good news is something can be done. While it will require genuine organizational commitment, prevention and mitigation are key. But to get at the heart of the problem, we must first ask if employers are even tracking psychological safety in the workplace. </p>
<p>Of those that do, most merely encourage staff to exercise more, meditate, sleep better and eat a more balanced diet. This is, quite simply, passing the buck onto an already depleted workforce and does nothing to address the core of the problem. The answer is not to recommend Band-Aid solutions, suggesting employees try even harder in their downtime to compensate for organizational neglect. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in an office pores over a document." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406031/original/file-20210613-17-me8m1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workplaces must implement clear policies to reflect their commitment to workplace mental health and safety, including appointing a wellness champion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For meaningful change, organizations must first implement clear policies reflecting their commitment to workplace mental health and psychological safety, and appoint a wellness champion and leaders who model these values.</p>
<p>The next step is identifying workplace hazards through employee engagement surveys, workplace risk assessments, incident investigations, exit interviews and disability claim data if available. Identifying controls to prevent psychological harm is also necessary.</p>
<h2>Respectful workplace policies</h2>
<p>Once hazards have been identified, prevention and mitigation measures must follow. Organizations must define and train employees on their duties and responsibilities, monitor workload, consider flexible work arrangements, clearly communicate priorities and ensure respectful workplace policies are understood and that managers who defy them are held accountable. </p>
<p>Organizations must address environmental risks by encouraging movement, breaks and getting sunlight. Finally, documenting and reporting hazards as a measure for ongoing program development is necessary because it helps inform company policy as part of holistic continuous improvement efforts. </p>
<p>Throughout the entire cycle, I remind organizational leaders to remain present to support staff through the execution of all tasks — and of the value in fostering happy and engaged teams. </p>
<p>Research shows that the highest performing workplace teams <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/08/high-performing-teams-need-psychological-safety-heres-how-to-create-it">have one thing in common: psychological safety</a>. When people feel safe, they are engaged and committed to their work, and this builds organizational resilience. Employers who manage to get ahead of the burnout curve will gain a distinct advantage over other organizations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161852/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristen Deuzeman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Burnout as the result of workplace stress has big implications for employers. Occupational health and safety standards require employers to protect both the physical and mental health of workers.Kristen Deuzeman, Industrial/Organizational Psychologist, Northern Alberta Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1561732021-03-18T17:15:59Z2021-03-18T17:15:59ZHurricane warnings and advice can get lost in translation, leaving migrants unprepared<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390184/original/file-20210317-13-1d7mx31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C3000%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Migrant workers in a Florida community hit hard by Hurricane Irma line up for donated supplies.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-of-the-rural-migrant-worker-town-of-immokalee-news-photo/846617080">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Forecasters expect <a href="https://theconversation.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-starts-june-1-heres-what-forecasters-are-watching-right-now-161065">another active Atlantic hurricane season</a> after a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end">record-breaker in 2020</a>, and communities need to be prepared. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342439097_Translation_in_Times_of_Cascading_Crisis_Call_for_Abstracts">Clear communications</a>, starting before storms arrive and continuing through the recovery, will be crucial to protecting lives and limiting property damage.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, parts of the population are slipping through the cracks when it comes to hurricane warnings and advice.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.id-coop.eu/en/KeyConcepts/Pages/LinguisticMinorities.aspx#:%7E:text=A%20linguistic%20minority%20is%20a,spoken%20by%20the%20national%20majority.">Linguistic minorities</a> – those who understand little or no English – are often at greater risk from disasters and have fewer resources to evacuate or protect their homes. When <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/natural-disasters-and-environment/hurricane-katrina">Hurricane Katrina</a> hit New Orleans in 2005, many migrants didn’t evacuate, in part because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2020.07.007">storm warnings were broadcast mainly in English</a>. It’s a simmering public health issue, with clear implications for migrant communities.</p>
<p>As part of a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102061">new study</a>, we looked at local emergency communication in English and compared it to nine other languages. Our results show how minor deviations in translation could lead to significant differences in understanding. Those gaps could cause linguistic minorities to confuse one natural hazard with another, misunderstand advice and quite possibly lead to the wrong preventive measures.</p>
<h2>When direct translation doesn’t work</h2>
<p>What forecasters call a “hurricane” in the U.S. might be called <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/6/tornado-twister-hurricane-tropical-cyclone-typhoonwhats-the-difference/">a “cyclone” or “typhoon” in other countries</a>. But they are all the same natural phenomenon.</p>
<p>The word “typhoon” has an Arabic origin, “<a href="https://www.lexilogos.com/english/arabic_dictionary.htm">tawaphan</a>,” but the word in Arabic means “flooding.” The word also can be found in Persian as “<a href="http://www.farsidic.com/en/Lang/EnFa">tophan</a>,” where it means a “rainstorm.” The word exists in Hindi as well, “<a href="https://www.lexilogos.com/english/hindi_dictionary.htm">toophan</a>,” and simply means a “storm.”</p>
<p>The two words “tornado” and “hurricane” are translated into the same word in Arabic, “<a href="https://www.lexilogos.com/english/arabic_dictionary.htm">iiesar</a>.” But this word describes only a circular movement of wind. The term used in Arabic to describe a hurricane is “<a href="https://www.lexilogos.com/english/arabic_dictionary.htm">iiesar bahri</a>,” which is translated back to English as “sea cyclone.”</p>
<p>In the U.S., the words “<a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/6/tornado-twister-hurricane-tropical-cyclone-typhoonwhats-the-difference/">tornado” and “twister” are used interchangeably</a> in English, but in Spanish, they are not. In Spanish, “tornado” is translated to “tornado,” while “twister” is translated to “<a href="https://www.spanishdict.com/dictionary">torbellino</a>” or “<a href="https://www.spanishdict.com/dictionary">tromba</a>,” which is translated back to English as “whirlwind.” Similarly, “tornado” is translated to “<a href="http://www.farsidic.com/en/Lang/EnFa">kardbad</a>” in Persian, which also means a “whirlwind.” In both cases, the translations fail to reflect the severity of the event; it makes the hazard sound less dangerous.</p>
<p>Misunderstanding can go in the other direction as well, leading to unnecessary panic. The word “hurricane” assumes a certain cultural context around the world. This is mainly due to <a href="https://www.warc.com/rankings/media-100/top-countries/2020">media coverage</a> of actions taken by the U.S. government during hurricanes. Because of this, migrants from India might assume that hurricanes are more destructive than cyclones if they compare the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/federal-government-poised-respond-hurricane-florence/story?id=57806869">U.S. government response to hurricanes</a> to the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/5/20/many-killed-as-cyclone-amphan-tears-into-india-bangladesh-coasts">Indian government response to cyclones</a>.</p>
<p>The knock-on effect is that human behavior in response to the same natural phenomena is altered. This can spread panic among migrants, <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/media-spotlight/201610/why-do-we-panic-in-emergencies">which can be as hazardous as not being prepared during emergencies</a>.</p>
<p>The problems do not end with “hurricane” and “tornado.” We found similar issues arising with terms used to describe seismic events, monsoonal dust and sand storms. And we are only scratching the surface. Our data are limited to 10 languages out of more than <a href="https://www.ethnologue.com/guides/how-many-languages">7,100 spoken languages around the world</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Word art with storm terms in the shape of Earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387978/original/file-20210305-19-1pobpk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Around the world, people use different words for similar – but not always identical – weather phenomena.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Created with wordart.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Creating more inclusive emergency messaging</h2>
<p>Our data demonstrate the importance of careful attention to language choices in emergency communications. The gaps that we have observed can cause linguistic minorities to confuse one natural hazard with another, quite possibly leading to the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/what-s-difference-between-hurricane-tornado-ncna1011676">wrong preventive measures.</a></p>
<p>Writing and translating emergency communications <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2021/01/18/how-the-english-language-dominates-disaster-research-and-practice/">with cultural sensitivity</a> can avoid some of these disadvantages and the potential for unintentional harm.</p>
<p>Beyond overcoming translation barriers, there are opportunities to promote inclusive disaster preparedness that doesn’t leave anyone behind. Emergency communication should be tailored to the needs of local communities. This can happen only when a strategy for action is created collaboratively <a href="https://www.bangthetable.com/blog/healing-together-emergency-management-and-disaster-recovery/">with the community</a> and is actually followed. </p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="https://cis.org/Report/Almost-Half-Speak-Foreign-Language-Americas-Largest-Cities">67 million people speak a foreign language in their homes</a>. Communicating in different languages and understanding the original cultural context might sound like a lot of work, but local communities can and do help <a href="https://www.elrha.org/project-blog/value-communicating-local-language/">support such initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>The institutions that people rely on for emergency communication are increasingly paying attention to diversity and inclusion. Linguistic inclusion can make an important contribution to their broader public health efforts. </p>
<p><em>This article was update with the start of hurricane season.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Misunderstanding disaster warnings can have catastrophic consequences for people who don’t speak the language used for emergency communications.Amer Hamad Issa Abukhalaf, Research Assistant and Ph.D. Candidate, University of FloridaJason von Meding, Associate Professor, Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1543172021-03-08T13:36:16Z2021-03-08T13:36:16Z5 strategies to prepare now for the next pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388110/original/file-20210305-13-82k3mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C0%2C5856%2C3925&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stacked disasters – like a winter storm that damages a water system during a pandemic – can provide lessons for the next time around.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherWaterWoes/c3bfa8a4505c4ce6a0f01d6049eb3089/photo?boardId=d7f2514f50804466b15dfb81ed00d9cd&st=boards&mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=33&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the world is still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, public health and emergency management experts are already preparing for the next one. After all, biologists are certain <a href="https://www.who.int/medicines/ebola-treatment/WHO-list-of-top-emerging-diseases/en/">another dangerous new pathogen will emerge</a> sooner or later.</p>
<p>We are public health researchers engaged in both leading <a href="https://public-health.tamu.edu/directory/clendenin.html">public health disaster response</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=me4Q9y4AAAAJ&hl=en">evaluating emergency management</a>.</p>
<p>Here are five strategies that will give the world a head start – and maybe even help prevent the next outbreak or epidemic from blowing up into a pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="masked man's arm is prepped for injection outdoors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388113/original/file-20210305-21-1i9k9ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The public health response in Guinea was swift when new cases of Ebola virus disease were identified in February 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/health-worker-from-the-guinean-ministry-of-health-cleans-a-news-photo/1231345676?adppopup=true">Carol Valade/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Shore up the systems already in place</h2>
<p>The identification in February 2021 of <a href="https://www.who.int/csr/don/17-february-2021-ebola-gin/en/">a new outbreak of Ebola in Guinea</a> showed how critical surveillance and reporting are for rapidly responding to and containing infectious disease. </p>
<p>The process generally works like this: Once an astute clinician diagnoses a disease that is <a href="https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/notifiable/2020/">on the watch list</a> of the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, she reports the case to local health authorities to investigate. The information gets passed up the chain to the state, federal and international levels.</p>
<p>Clinicians, public health practitioners and labs all around the world send disease reports to groups like the WHO’s <a href="https://extranet.who.int/goarn/">Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network</a>. It aggregates all that data and helps identify outbreaks of new infectious diseases and their pandemic potential.</p>
<p>If a pathogen does make it past local monitors and starts to spread, governments have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/incident-command-system">emergency management systems in place to respond</a>. These incident command structures provide a framework to respond to crises that range from infectious disease to natural disaster to terrorist attack.</p>
<p>In the U.S., various federal agencies have different responsibilities. They monitor emerging infectious diseases, establish a strategic national stockpile of resources and support the states in their preparedness and response. Responsibility for the emergency response lies with each state – that’s in the U.S. Constitution – so they have flexibility in how they implement everything on a local level.</p>
<p>One practical way to be prepared for a future pandemic is to ensure that all these systems and structures remain stable. That means <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/the-u-s-government-and-the-world-health-organization/">maintaining funding</a>, training and personnel for a rapid global response even when no pandemic threats are visible on the horizon.</p>
<h2>2. Prepare the public to do its part</h2>
<p>Effective pandemic response requires a clear, consistent voice and an actionable message that reflects best practices based on sound science. Messaging and data that clearly explain how each individual has an important role in curbing the pandemic – and that it might evolve as the pandemic unfolds over time – are critical.</p>
<p>The message to stay home and “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html">flatten the curve</a>” to avoid overwhelming health care resources with COVID-19 cases was an essential early <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/personal-social-activities.html">public health message</a> that resonated with many Americans who were not designated as essential workers. However, once initial shutdown orders were lifted and new treatments emerged, there was general confusion about the safety of public gatherings, particularly since <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-messes-with-texas-what-went-wrong-and-what-other-states-can-learn-as-younger-people-get-sick-141563">guidance varied by state or locality</a>.</p>
<p>Guidance is also most effective if it’s tailored to different audiences. In the South, distrust of testing and vaccination efforts by government and health care providers is directly linked to <a href="https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/learn-from-others/webinars/responding-to-crisis-in-the-latino-population-with-an-equity-lens">language barriers and immigration concerns</a>. One strategy to reach diverse and often underserved populations is to rely on leaders in the local faith community to <a href="https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-08/fix-us-coronavirus-response-start-culture">help deliver public health messages</a>.</p>
<p>Preparedness requires an “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/national-preparedness/goal">all of community approach</a>” that engages everyone in the planning stages, especially those from underserved or vulnerable populations. Building relationships now can improve access to information and resources when the next disaster strikes, helping ensure equity and agility in response.</p>
<p>Science and risk communication scholars have started talking about the best ways people can <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2020/06/30/default-calendar/1st-who-infodemiology-conference">manage the flood of information during a pandemic</a>. Lessons from what’s been called the infodemic of COVID-19 news – some trustworthy but some certainly not – can inform new strategies for sharing reliable info and fostering trust in science.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388105/original/file-20210305-13-2kxz15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Participants at a tabletop exercise in Texas that envisioned an Ebola virus disease outbreak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The USA Center for Rural Health Preparedness</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Get coordinated and practice</h2>
<p>Emergency managers and health care leaders have long recognized that a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121478">coordinated response by diverse teams</a> is critical for public health emergencies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ready.gov/exercise">Tabletop exercises</a> that simulate real emergencies help officials prepare for crises of all types. Like a fire drill, they bring together community stakeholders to walk through a hypothetical disaster scenario and hash out roles and responsibilities. These practice sessions include people who work in public health, emergency management and health care, as well as federal, tribal, state and local front-line responders.</p>
<p>Practice scenarios must also include the reality of “stacked disasters,” like a hurricane or winter storm that puts even more stress on the disaster response system.</p>
<p>These exercises enable a community to test parts of the overall emergency management plan and determine gaps or areas to strengthen. Ongoing testing and training to the plan ensures everyone is as ready as they can be.</p>
<p>Beyond this training, health care professionals could be cross-trained to <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/11/covid-related-nursing-shortages-hit-hospitals-nationwide">back up specialized clinical staff</a>, who may need support over the course of a long pandemic.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic delivered lessons about <a href="https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/new-hope-fixing-supply-chain-problems-ppe-tests-vaccines">infrastructure and supply chains</a>. Strategic investments can <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/21/executive-order-a-sustainable-public-health-supply-chain/">shore up existing strategic national stockpiles</a> of supplies and vaccinations for the future. If necessary, the president can use <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-defense-production-act">the Defense Production Act</a> to order private companies to prioritize federal orders.</p>
<h2>4. Polish the playbook</h2>
<p>After every major disaster response, all of the different groups involved – law enforcement, EMS, fire, emergency management, public health, search and rescue and so on – conduct what are called “after action reviews.” They can improve plans for the next time around.</p>
<p>For instance, after the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html">2009 influenza pandemic</a>, the Department of Health and Human Services found that while CDC communication efforts were widely successful, some non-English-speaking populations missed important messages. The <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-632">after action review noted</a> that distrust in the government increased when vaccine supplies did not meet public expectations. In turn, officials could plan exercises to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/readiness/healthcare/documents/PIEET_Cleared_9_5.docx">test and tweak approaches for next time</a>.</p>
<p>A thorough review of the response to the current COVID-19 pandemic at all levels will identify gaps, challenges and successes. Those “After Action” findings need to be integrated into future planning to improve preparedness and response for the next pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="seated operators in front of telephone switchboard" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388111/original/file-20210305-13-575k7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A previous pandemic hastened the end of switchboard operators. Which technologies will get a boost after this one?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/telephone-operators-receive-long-distance-calls-from-news-photo/3302030?adppopup=true">Stevens/Topical Press Agency/Hulton Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Build on the new normal</h2>
<p>Back when the <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2021/02/1918-pandemic-provides-warning-about-covid-19s-future/172078/">1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic unfolded</a>, few Americans had a telephone. Quarantine rules led more households to <a href="https://www.egi.co.uk/news/what-can-1918-teach-us-about-post-pandemic-tech-adoption/">use phones and hastened research</a> that reduced reliance on human telephone operators. Similarly, no doubt COVID-19 triggered some rapid changes that will last and help the U.S. be ready for future events. </p>
<p>It’s been easier to adapt to the necessary lifestyle changes due to this pandemic thanks to the ways technology has changed the workplace, the classroom and the delivery of health care. Business analysts predict the quick move to video teleconferencing and remote work for offices in 2020 will <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19#">be lasting legacies of COVID-19</a>. A multidisciplinary team here at Texas A&M is tracking how robotics and automated systems are being used in pandemic response in clinical care, public health and public safety settings.</p>
<p>Some of the sudden, dramatic changes to norms and behaviors, like the use of face masks in public, may be among the easiest strategies to keep in place to fend off a future pandemic from a respiratory virus. Just as telephone systems continued to improve over the last 100 years, ongoing innovation that builds on rapid adoption of technologies around COVID-19 will help people adjust to sudden lifestyle changes when the next pandemic strikes.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=experts">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get expert takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shoring up surveillance and response systems and learning lessons from how the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded will help the world be ready the next time around.Tiffany A. Radcliff, Associate Dean for Research and Professor of Health Policy and Management, Texas A&M UniversityAngela Clendenin, Instructional Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1453252020-10-07T03:07:55Z2020-10-07T03:07:55ZNearly half a million poultry deaths: there are 3 avian influenza outbreaks in Victoria. Should we be worried?<p>As we navigate a global human pandemic, avian influenza (or “bird flu”) has been detected in domestic poultry across Victoria. </p>
<p>When scientists discuss avian influenza, we’re usually referring to the diverse subtypes of influenza that primarily infect birds. Avian influenza viruses are commonly found in healthy wild birds and can also cause illness and death among domestic poultry including chickens, turkeys and ducks. </p>
<p>Humans can contract it if they come into close contact with infected birds (not from eating cooked chicken or eggs). But these viruses don’t easily infect us and their health risk is <a href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/public-health/infectious-diseases/disease-information-advice/avian-flu">considered low</a>. </p>
<p>Between 2003-2019, there have been about 2,500 human cases of avian influenza globally (mainly caused by the influenza subtypes <a href="https://academic.oup.com/femsre/article/43/6/608/5543894">H7N9</a> and <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/2020_10_07_tableH5N1.pdf?ua=1">H5N1</a>).</p>
<p>There’s also no evidence of people becoming infected as a result of the current outbreaks in Victoria. Nonetheless, avian influenza viruses can mutate, so we must carefully monitor and deal with them as they arise. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-learning-lessons-from-traditional-human-animal-relations-70441">Bird flu: learning lessons from traditional human-animal relations</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How we classify avian influenza</h2>
<p>These viruses are classified in two ways. The first is based on the HA-NA subtype system. On the surface of the virus are two proteins: haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Of these, there are 16 and 9 types respectively. </p>
<p>So when we talk about the subtype <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm">H5N1</a>, for example, we’re referring to type 5 of the HA and type 1 of the NA. Due to their mix-and-match nature, there are 144 potential HA-NA subtype combinations. The vast majority of these never cause disease in birds.</p>
<p>Avian influenza viruses are also classified by how “pathogenic” they are, which refers to their ability to cause disease in domestic poultry. Low pathogenic viruses are common in wild birds and may cause limited disease in poultry, but highly pathogenic viruses cause high mortality in poultry.</p>
<p>Occasionally, when an H5 or H7 low pathogenic avian influenza virus crosses from wild birds to poultry, changes in the virus genome can occur, transforming it into a highly pathogenic virus.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360211/original/file-20200928-18-95hl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Avian influenza viruses are classified in two ways - the first is based on the HA and NA subtypes, and the second is based pathogenicity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michelle Wille</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Avian influenza outbreaks in Victoria</h2>
<p>In Victoria, there have been three <a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/biosecurity/animal-diseases/poultry-diseases/avian-influenza-bird-flu">outbreaks</a> of avian influenza since July this year: two low pathogenic avian influenza viruses, H5N2 and H7N6, in domestic turkeys and emus, respectively, as well as a high pathogenic H7N7 virus in chickens.</p>
<p>The simultaneous detection of different virus subtypes in chickens, emus and turkeys is unusual. In the past, outbreaks in domestic birds have mostly been caused by a single subtype. This highlights the importance of stringent biosecurity practices, to prevent the introduction of avian influenza into farmed poultry. </p>
<p>Victoria’s current outbreaks are causing substantial economic loss and are considered emergency animal diseases. They have resulted in:</p>
<ul>
<li>the deaths of about <a href="https://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_fup_0000035639_20200904_124628.pdf">450,000</a> domestic birds across <a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/biosecurity/animal-diseases/poultry-diseases/avian-influenza-bird-flu">six farms</a>, of which the vast majority are <a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/biosecurity/animal-diseases/poultry-diseases/avian-influenza-bird-flu">egg-laying chickens</a></li>
<li>a potential loss of <a href="https://www.outbreak.gov.au/current-responses-to-outbreaks/avian-influenza">export markets</a> for poultry products </li>
<li>significant response costs and loss of income for affected producers, requiring <a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/biosecurity/animal-diseases/poultry-diseases/avian-influenza-bird-flu">permits</a> to move eggs, equipment and birds from affected areas.</li>
</ul>
<p>The good news is Australia has successfully eradicated high pathogenic avian influenza viruses in the past. We will almost certainly eradicate these too. </p>
<p><a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/">Agriculture Victoria</a>, the lead agency for emergency animal diseases in the state, is responding to the outbreaks in a number of <a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/biosecurity/animal-diseases/poultry-diseases/avian-influenza-bird-flu">ways</a>. </p>
<p>Firstly, a <a href="https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/biosecurity/animal-diseases/poultry-diseases/avian-influenza-bird-flu/restricted-and-control-area-orders">housing order</a> requires all bird owners in the affected areas to keep their birds inside. This measure, along with other movement controls, helps limit spread to other farms. </p>
<p>Second, infected birds on the farms are destroyed, with the farms thoroughly decontaminated. These procedures are key to preventing the continued spread of avian influenza.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360217/original/file-20200928-22-yy6i65.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There are currently three outbreaks of avian influenza in Victoria, high pathogenic H7N7 in chickens, low pathogenic H5N2 in turkeys and low pathogenic H7N6 in emus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michelle Wille</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How we’re tracking the spread of the viruses</h2>
<p>Outbreaks of avian influenza in Australian poultry are infrequent. The last outbreak of high pathogenic avian influenza in Victoria’s poultry (before this year) was in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420300434#bb0215">1992</a>. Low pathogenic avian influenza, however, is detected in our wild birds regularly. </p>
<p>Past testing has found different groups of wild birds can have infection rates ranging between <a href="https://veterinaryresearch.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13567-016-0308-2">0.1-40%</a>. The variation depends on which species make up the group, the group’s predominant location and also what season it is. The most common virus subtypes found in wild birds are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/avj.12379">H1, H3 and H6</a>.</p>
<p>Data used to understand and monitor avian influenza in the wild is generated by the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Surveillance <a href="https://wildlifehealthaustralia.com.au/ProgramsProjects/WildBirdSurveillance.aspx">program</a>, which screens samples directly from captured birds, or indirectly through their faeces.</p>
<h2>Not an ‘imported’ virus</h2>
<p>Unlike contact tracing with people, birds can’t tell you who they have been socialising with. That’s why genomic sequencing is crucial in tracking, tracing and monitoring avian influenza viruses. </p>
<p>Each virus has a unique genomic sequence, like a genetic fingerprint. Using genetic analysis, the different genomes can be compared. This offers insight into how closely related certain viruses are and how wild birds may be spreading them across the country. </p>
<p>This method helped us to discover Victoria currently has three distinct outbreaks – and to connect the farms within each outbreak. </p>
<p>Also, a critical component of our response is the collection of virus genomes already available to us from past surveillance efforts. These data have revealed the viruses currently in Victoria are not imported from Asia, or elsewhere. </p>
<p>Rather, they’re similar to low pathogenic avian influenza viruses currently circulating in wild Australian waterbirds, as well as viruses that have caused past outbreaks in poultry. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/avian-influenza-why-its-not-going-away-20038">Avian influenza – why it’s not going away</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>We would like to acknowledge Agriculture Victoria, AgriBio, the Centre for AgriBioscience (a joint initiative between Agriculture Victoria and La Trobe University), the CSIRO Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness and the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in collaboration with Deakin University, for their ongoing avian influenza surveillance under the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Surveillance program.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Wille has an honorary appointment at the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza and the Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne.
Michelle Wille receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Michelle Wille is a member of the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Steering Committee.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stacey Lynch is a Senior Research Scientist, Microbial Sciences, Pests and Diseases, Agriculture Victoria, Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions and a member of the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Steering Committee.
Stacey receives research funding from Agriculture Victoria, the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Surveillance Program, the National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Department of Defence.
This article has undergone internal approval by Agriculture Victoria.
</span></em></p>Victoria currently has three avian influenza outbreaks across six farms. They are being treated as an emergency. Here’s how authorities are responding.Michelle Wille, Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award Fellow, University of SydneyStacey Lynch, Senior Research Scientist, Agriculture Victoria, Honorary (Fellow) Veterinary Bioscience, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1378582020-05-05T12:20:26Z2020-05-05T12:20:26ZIt’s Hurricane Preparedness Week, and communities aren’t ready for both coronavirus and a disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332489/original/file-20200504-83769-3z8lqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C23%2C2233%2C1498&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's hard to avoid close contact during a hurricane evacuation and recovery.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://gettyimages.com">Mehdi Taamallah/AFP/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricane season is only weeks away, and many communities are only now considering how to handle a large-scale disaster on top of the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<p><a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf">Forecasters are warning</a> of a more active than usual Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1, with one forecast calling for 16 named tropical storms, eight of them hurricanes, and a high likelihood that at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S.</p>
<p>In New Jersey, where Hurricane Sandy is still fresh in many minds and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html">coronavirus infections are now widespread</a>, social distancing will be important, but it’s not simple to do during a disaster. Emergency shelters have little room for personal distance, and storm preparations and cleanup often involve close contact with others.</p>
<p>Tom Hester, a spokesman for New Jersey’s Department of Human Services, said officials would be working with the Red Cross and other partners to provide sheltering under social distancing guidelines “as best as possible.” State emergency management officials, who have been busy with the pandemic, said they were holding regular conference calls with county officials about disaster response, though no public updates had yet been issued.</p>
<p>When national <a href="https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness">Hurricane Preparedness Week</a> started on May 3, New Jersey and other states were still working on updating their <a href="http://ready.nj.gov/plan-prepare/hurricanes.shtml">online hurricane advice</a> to reflect the pandemic. FEMA <a href="https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes">updated</a> its advice only at the end of April, adding a few sentences recommending that anyone headed to a storm shelter should wear a cloth face covering, take cleaning items like hand sanitizer and keep six feet away from others.</p>
<p>Hurricanes are only part of the disaster risk facing the U.S. this year. The Southeast has seen deadly tornadoes, and the West expects significant droughts this summer, <a href="https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf">a recipe for wildfires</a>. Each could leave thousands of people homeless and many in need of rescue and emergency care, and the coronavirus will make them more difficult and dangerous to manage.</p>
<p>Dealing with response and recovery from a disaster in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic raises new and unsettling questions. Who is available to respond? What medical assistance can be provided if hospitals are treating COVID-19 patients and there is already a shortage of supplies? Where do we shelter and house evacuees, given the need to keep large numbers of evacuees socially distant from one another? Moreover, the time frame for dealing with this dual challenge may not be measured in days or even weeks, but rather months and possibly years.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://engineering.vanderbilt.edu/bio/mark-abkowitz">civil engineer specializing in risk management</a>, I work with governments and businesses to assess enterprise risks, including extreme weather. There are no silver bullets to solving these dilemmas, but there are simple concepts and questions that planners should be addressing right now.</p>
<h2>Planning is crucial</h2>
<p>With the coronavirus pandemic adding a new layer of challenges and risks, community leaders should be planning in a structured way for how they will deal with worst-case scenarios.</p>
<p>That means asking: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What are the consequences? And what resources do we need to mitigate the risk? </p>
<p>Before this year, few communities seriously considered the need to deal with a pandemic on top of a natural disaster. Their playbooks for responding to a tornado or a hurricane likely didn’t include the need to consider social distancing in emergency shelters or how to get help from other states when a widespread health crisis is underway.</p>
<p>Officials should be asking the key questions again, casting the net wide enough to consider any plausible scenario. Importantly, they should be addressing where personnel, equipment, facilities and supplies can be found and how those resources should be allocated. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Schools are often used as emergency shelters during disasters, like this one was in Florida ahead of Hurricane Michael in 2018. They aren’t designed for social distancing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
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<p>With the likelihood that resources normally available from federal agencies and mutual aid agreements won’t be accessible this year, some local communities have started banding together to fill the void. </p>
<p>In New Orleans, Evacuteer, a nonprofit normally focused on helping residents evacuate during a hurricane, has <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/what-happens-when-natural-disasters-strike-during-coronavirus-pandemic/">shifted its operations</a> to stockpiling food and supplies, recognizing that the pandemic response has depleted many of these resources. </p>
<p>The Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, a coalition of mayors and leaders, is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/11/829193312/hope-isn-t-a-strategy-how-to-prepare-for-a-natural-disaster-during-covid-19">procuring personal protective equipment</a> for distribution to wherever severe flooding may occur. </p>
<p>Vacant hotel rooms and college dormitories are becoming important sheltering options. When tornadoes hit the Southeast in April, <a href="https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2020/red-cross-responds-to-tornadoes-in-south-as-storms-move-north.html">the Red Cross turned to a revised playbook</a> and responded with social distancing in mind. Instead of opening shelters, where the coronavirus could easily spread, it worked with hotels to put hundreds of storm victims into rooms. Its volunteers, normally on the scene after disasters, jumped into emergency response coordination work from home. </p>
<h2>The logistics challenge and federal leadership</h2>
<p>Without careful, coordinated planning, desperately needed resources can be sent to the wrong locations, leaving the areas most in need of assistance without lifesaving capabilities. </p>
<p>The shortages of testing, face masks and ventilators in areas hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic show how logistical failures can threaten the quality of health care and the susceptibility of hospital workers to harm.</p>
<p>Ideally, disaster logistics management should be a federal role. The federal government has greater access to supplies and the authority to marshal resources. The most effective approach is centralized control of the supply chain and a unified command structure, much in <a href="https://www.dla.mil/AtaGlance/">the way the Defense Logistics Agency</a> supports military operations. It requires total awareness of where to get supplies and where they are needed, and the ability to alter traditional supply chains when necessary. </p>
<p>Many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/mun033">case studies</a> illustrate the success of this approach, and the risks of not using it. During the 2001 terrorist attack on the Pentagon, the Arlington County Fire Department quickly <a href="https://theconversation.com/command-under-attack-what-weve-learned-since-9-11-about-managing-crises-64517">established a unified command</a> with other agencies. The emergency crews on the scene knew who was in charge and could coordinate effectively. Conversely, the disorganized response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 left tens of thousands of people without basic supplies. </p>
<h2>Changing how businesses operate</h2>
<p>Inventory management is perhaps the most difficult challenge. In our global economy, companies have been overwhelmingly focused on cutting costs to remain competitive. </p>
<p>Businesses respond by keeping inventory as low as possible, relying on the supply chain to make just-in-time deliveries to meet production and service needs. There is little to no adaptive capacity in the system – the excess resources they could draw upon when a disaster strikes. </p>
<p>Creating this adaptive capacity will require a sea change in how businesses operate, with the strategy of cutting costs to the max replaced with a more reasoned approach of being cost-conscious while maintaining a sufficient inventory to meet societal needs.</p>
<p>Now is the time to recognize how to become resilient when confronting multiple disasters simultaneously. There is a famous oil filter commercial in which an auto mechanic, discussing the cost of replacing an oil filter as opposed to the cost of engine repair by deferring that decision, declares: <a href="http://www.resolvcrm.com/pay-me-now-or-pay-me-later">“You can pay me now….or you can pay me later</a>.” Later is no longer an option.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on April 30, 2020.</em></p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Abkowitz receives funding from Tennessee Department of Transportation and the U.S. Department of Transportation.</span></em></p>The US faces a high risk of hurricanes and other disasters this year that could leave thousands of people in need of shelter. COVID-19 will make those disasters more dangerous to manage.Mark Abkowitz, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Director of the Vanderbilt Center for Environmental Management Studies, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293262020-01-06T18:54:39Z2020-01-06T18:54:39ZAustralia can expect far more fire catastrophes. A proper disaster plan is worth paying for<p>Australia is in the midst of inconceivably bad bushfires. The death toll is rising, thousands of buildings have been destroyed and whole communities displaced. This scale is like nothing before, and our national response must be like nothing that has come before.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday somewhat acknowledged the need for unprecedented action. He <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZgchUaoYqw">took the extraordinary step</a> of calling up 3,000 Australian Defence Force reservists and mobilising navy ships and military bases to aid the emergency response. This has never before happened in Australia at this scale.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-recovery-from-australias-fires-will-be-a-marathon-not-a-sprint-129325">Disaster recovery from Australia's fires will be a marathon, not a sprint</a>
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<p>But it’s not enough. As this horrific summer of disaster continues to unfold in coming weeks, we clearly need to overhaul our emergency management plan with a workforce that’s large, nationally mobile, fully funded, and paid – rather than using under-resourced volunteers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.unisdr.org/we/advocate/climate-change">The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction</a> says weather and climate related disasters have more than doubled over the last 40 years. </p>
<p>Although expensive, the cost of not acting on disaster risk, planning and preparation will be greatly outstripped by the cost of future climate and weather catastrophes. </p>
<h2>Our disaster management system needs upgrading</h2>
<p>The states and territories are primarily responsible for disaster preparedness and response. Typically, the federal government has no direct responsibility, but lends a hand when asked through a variety of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13642987.2014.889391">programs, policies and initiatives</a>.</p>
<p>This may have worked in the past. But with ever larger and more complex disasters, these arrangements are no longer fit for purpose.</p>
<p>Our national emergency management workforce is largely made up of volunteers, who are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/12/firies-and-fury-exhausted-volunteers-decry-pms-claim-they-want-to-be-there">stretched to the bone, exhausted and some say, under-resourced</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, experts led by former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/full-list-of-fire-and-emergency-chiefs-recommendations-to-federal-government/">have called for</a> significant changes in Australia’s disaster management preparedness and response. They’ve signalled the need for new resources, policies and processes to tackle more frequent and complex disasters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires</a>
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<p>We’ve also seen how consultation and collaboration between the Commonwealth and states are not working smoothly. </p>
<p>NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/05/australia-fires-rfs-commissioner-not-told-of-scott-morrisons-call-up-of-adf-reserve">only learned</a> that Defence reservists would be deployed when it was reported in the media. And it <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/nsw-bushfires-two-people-unaccounted-for-says-rfs/11843060">wasn’t immediately clear</a> how new reservists would be integrated into existing response activities. </p>
<h2>Finding a bipartisan way forward</h2>
<p>The decade-long ideological battle between the left and right of Australian politics has paralysed climate policy development. This cannot continue.</p>
<p>Well-funded disaster preparedness and response inevitably builds resilience to climate change and extreme weather events like bushfires. This is something both sides of politics agree on – in fact, it was noted in the federal government’s own <a href="https://www.aidr.org.au/media/6682/national-resilience-taskforce-profiling-australias-vulnerability.pdf">recent report</a> profiling our vulnerability to disasters and climate change. </p>
<p>Aside from needing bipartisanship, an overhaul of Australia’s disaster management will require money. While we’re lucky to have a dedicated, paid and exceptional set of state and territory disaster and emergency management agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service, most heavy lifting is done by agency volunteers. </p>
<p>But with fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer, we can no longer rely for months at a time on volunteers who must also work, pay their bills and feed their families.</p>
<p>We need a larger, paid, trained, professional emergency management workforce. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-a-national-crisis-plan-and-not-just-for-bushfires-128781">reject claims</a> that such a workforce would stand idle most of the year. Severe weather seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer, so these professionals will be busy.</p>
<p>The workforce could be divided in to areas of expertise to tackle specific disaster types, and focus on different aspects of the disaster cycle such as prevention and preparation. These continue year-round. </p>
<p>Alternatively, volunteers could be compensated through direct payments for lost income, tax offsets for volunteers and their employers, or rent or mortgage assistance.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bushfires-are-horrendous-but-expect-cyclones-floods-and-heatwaves-too-129328">The bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too</a>
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<p>What’s more, a new national disaster management approach must intersect with state and local governments to help reduce disaster risk. </p>
<p>These might include <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf">contributing to land-use zoning plans</a>, building design and standards for construction in at-risk areas, or building partnerships with the private sector.</p>
<h2>Funding disaster preparedness</h2>
<p>All this will cost money. Australia must accept that taxpayers will pay for future disaster preparedness, response and recovery. We need a bucket of cash for when disasters strike. Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/morrison-government-announces-2-billion-for-national-bushfire-recovery-fund/news-story/5ac5d03a578c09ec8cae55f859d67fa9">yesterday announced</a> A$2 billion for recovery, but disaster funds should be ongoing.</p>
<p>This would be no different to the national Medical Future Research Fund – a A$20 billion fund to focus on solving nationally important medical issues <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/medical-research-future-fund/about-the-mrff/mrff-funding-process">funded through savings from the health budget</a>. </p>
<p>There are several ways the money could be gathered. Commonwealth, state and territory governments could rethink their insistence on achieving budget surpluses, and instead spend money on a disaster fund. A “disaster levy” could be applied to household rates bills, a tax on carbon introduced, or planned tax cuts for middle and high income earners abandoned.</p>
<p>The public could also contribute to the fund directly. The ABC’s recent Australia Talks survey found on average, Australians would be willing to chip in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-17/what-youd-spend-to-halt-climate-change-and-what-you-could-get/11784704">A$200 each per year</a> to pay for adaptation to climate change. If every Australian contributed, there’s another A$5 billion per year for the fund.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes-128632">'I can still picture the faces': Black Saturday firefighters want you to listen to them, not call them 'heroes'</a>
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<p>Future disaster management will require Australia to step up. It means making hard choices about what we want the future to be like, how we’ll pay for that, and what level of risk we are prepared to tolerate. It also means demanding that our leaders deliver meaningful climate change adaptation, including disaster planning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Dominey-Howes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Emergency Management Program and the Global Resilience Partnership. </span></em></p>As this horrific summer of disaster continues to unfold in coming weeks, we need to overhaul our emergency management plan.Dale Dominey-Howes, Professor of Hazards and Disaster Risk Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1234012019-09-12T11:06:57Z2019-09-12T11:06:57ZHotels play vital roles in relief efforts when disaster such as the Maui wildfires strikes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542230/original/file-20230810-16-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C105%2C5262%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lahaina, Hawaii, was a wasteland of burned-out homes and obliterated communities after wildfires ripped through the town.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/9d084f2d3a504d8f97b0d1cf6d3f8809/photo?Query=maui%20wildfire&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=35&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hotels are more than a place to stay while on vacation. They are also critical for disaster relief and recovery. </p>
<p>When major hurricanes, wildfires or other disasters strike, relief <a href="https://www.fema.gov/es/news-release/20200220/fema-federal-agencies-ready-hurricane-dorian-heads-florida">organizations like Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2019/red-cross-commits-initial-2m-to-help-bahamas-helps-evacuees-coming-to-us.html">Red Cross</a> are usually seen at the heart of the disaster response. Less publicized are the essential roles hotels play in aiding and supporting the efforts of first responders and residents. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/maui-wildfires-extra-logistical-challenges-hinder-governments-initial-response-when-disasters-strike-islands-211384">wildfires rage on the island</a> of Maui, Hawaii, hotels hooked up to diesel generators <a href="https://lodgingmagazine.com/ahla-partners-with-hawaii-hotel-alliance-to-support-relief-efforts-in-west-maui/">are doing their best to support the needs</a> of not only their guests and employees but other residents of the community as well.</p>
<p>To better understand their role in relief efforts, my colleagues <a href="https://www.rit.edu/gis/academics/faculty/schneider">Jennifer L. Schneider</a>, <a href="https://www.rit.edu/directory/mxkism-muhammet-kesgin">Muhammet Kesgin</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gNiId2AAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Sarah Dobie</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=o_ZBzNIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and I</a> interviewed over 40 hotel general managers in Florida in 2017 and collected online survey data on 156 more to study what they did during and after Hurricane Irma struck that year. </p>
<p>We were impressed by the range of roles hotels said they take on in a disaster, whether a massive storm in Florida or a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/10/us/wildfires-maui-hawaii">wildfire in Maui</a>. </p>
<h2>Preparing for the storm</h2>
<p>Hotels located in the vicinity of a disaster are in a unique position to help, because unlike other first responders, they are already physically there with large and fortified buildings. </p>
<p>Our interviews in Florida showed that hotels take steps every year to mitigate the impact of hurricane season. This annual preparedness involves continued education, planning and sharing of best practices through local hotel associations, such as the <a href="https://frla.org/hurricane-resources/">Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association</a> and <a href="https://www.keyslodging.org/hurricane-conference.htm">Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West</a>. </p>
<p>“There is no way FEMA could set up temporary housing as fast as hotels in providing immediate places for people to stay in impacted areas,” one general manager told us. </p>
<p>Hotels mitigate the potential of being closed by signing advance contracts for diesel fuel to run generators in case electricity is lost. They also line up contractors ahead of time to repair any damage that might occur. </p>
<p>One manager even reported taking out US$5,000 in cash to make sure she was able to buy groceries for local residents in need, since the lack of electricity was forcing stores to accept cash only.</p>
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<img alt="an aerial view shows a patch of houses and busineses destroyed next to others that weren't damaged near the water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Hurricane Irma was a Category 4 storm when it crossed the Florida Keys in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/two-more-hurricane-irma-pix/bc989567ebb24b6abd84952a74c9fcb5/2/0">AP Photo</a></span>
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<h2>Offering shelter and aiding recovery</h2>
<p>During Hurricane Irma, residents and visitors were forced to evacuate certain parts of the state and sought shelter from the storm wherever they could, including at hotels, some of which <a href="https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/florida-cre-proves-resilient-in-face-of-hurricane-irma-due-to-long-term-pre/">are resilient to Category 5 hurricanes</a>. </p>
<p>How much a hotel can help with disaster response can depend on how severely its own infrastructure is damaged. But even when there is damage and no electricity, hoteliers reported that lodging was the key resource they were able to provide victims of Irma, whether they were local residents who fled homes or insurance adjusters and response teams trying to get things back up and running. </p>
<p>Managers told us they offered discounted room rates for people trying to get out of the way of the oncoming storm and waived their usual pet policies to help those fleeing the hurricane with animals. </p>
<p>Some managers said their hotels transformed from four-star resorts to simple shelters where first responders or power repair workers could find a safe and free place to sleep. One manager reported setting up dozens of cots in a ballroom for a National Guard command post.</p>
<p>Hotel employees who felt unsafe in their homes were allowed to ride out the storm with their families for free. And in some cases, they provided housing for months after the storm. </p>
<p>Beyond lodging, in some cases hotels sent out engineers to inspect employee homes to determine whether they were habitable while they waited for official inspections.</p>
<p>Beyond the humanitarian value of providing assistance, separate research I helped conduct also found that hotels that provide relief <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2022.103360">may produce goodwill</a> through the shared vulnerability that employees and customers experience. When customers receive assistance during periods of vulnerability and recognize that employees are facing similar challenges, they become advocates for public support of the business, its workers and the broader industry and destination impacted by the disaster.</p>
<p>Whether in Florida or Maui, hotels serve as <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures3040046">critical hubs for disaster relief and recovery</a>. As such, policymakers should be aware of their dual role as both private sector businesses and community resources.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Sept. 12, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Lagiewski received funding from the American Hotel and Lodging Educational Foundation (AHLEF) for this study. </span></em></p>Hotels are helping the Hawaiian island of Maui recover from the catastrophic impact of wildfires, just as they have in Florida following hurricanes.Rick Lagiewski, Principal Lecturer – Management, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/832032017-09-01T01:07:54Z2017-09-01T01:07:54ZWhy Texans heard conflicting messages about evacuating ahead of Hurricane Harvey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184241/original/file-20170831-22427-i0t13e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cars leaving Beaumont, Texas during a mandatory evacuation before the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, August 30, 2008.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/FEMA_-_37859_-_Line_of_cars_leaving_Beaumont_before_the_arrival_of_Hurricane_Gustav.jpg">Patsy Lynch/FEMA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“<a href="http://readyharris.org/News-Information/Harris-County-Alerts/Post/26574">Your safest option is to stay put.</a>” This message from Houston-area emergency management officials is difficult to reconcile with images of elderly nursing home residents <a href="http://time.com/4917743/la-vita-bella-nursing-home-dickinson-texas-photo/">sitting in waist-deep water</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/27/us/rescue-houston-harvey.html?mcubz=3">boat rescues of families</a> stranded in the heart of the city. </p>
<p>As Harvey’s <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/business/business/2017/08/28/harveys-economic-tollwill-rank-among-costliest-us-natural-disasters">unprecedented impacts</a> set in, questions linger about the lack of pre-event mandatory evacuation orders from authorities in Houston and towns farther south along the Texas coast. Despite <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/us/harvey-storm-hurricane-texas.html?mcubz=3">facing a direct hit from the storm</a>, the city of Corpus Christi and Nueces County issued only <a href="https://twitter.com/CCPublicTransit/status/900812164549816323">voluntary evacuations</a>. The next seven counties to the north and seven surrounding cities – including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/us/hurricane-harvey-texas.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur">Rockport, where the hurricane made landfall</a> – issued <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/845875/Hurricane-Harvey-evacuation-map-list-where-evacuations-Texas-zone-maps-USA-Houston">mandatory evacuations</a>. </p>
<p>Some officials’ messages were stark. Rockport Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Rios <a href="http://www.wfaa.com/weather/rockport-mayor-pro-tem-those-who-dont-evacuate-should-mark-social-security-number-on-their-arm/467378851">warned</a>, “We can’t emphasize enough that this is a life-threatening storm. All the advice we can give is get out now.” Others were more ambiguous. City of Corpus Christi Mayor McComb <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/harvey-texas-louisiana-preps-impacts">told the media</a>, “We could mandate it, but people need to make a decision of their own. I’m not going to risk our police and fire people going to try and drag somebody out of the house if they don’t want to go.” McComb did ask residents to voluntarily retreat, especially from low-lying areas.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"900793570747195393"}"></div></p>
<p>What explains why some local authorities mandate evacuations and others do not? From <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Local-Disaster-Resilience-Administrative-and-Political-Perspectives/Ross/p/book/9781138194441">my study</a> of Gulf Coast emergency managers and elected officials, I know that evacuation decisions are complex. They require assessing many factors beyond weather predictions. We should not expect all leaders to follow the same script, because decisions should be tailored to local communities. But Harvey has shown that there is certainly room for improvement. </p>
<h2>Weighing risks and resources</h2>
<p>Evacuation decisions require local officials to carefully weigh <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX-Chap2_FINAL.pdf">hazard risk</a> against local response capacity within a tight time period. Harvey’s characteristics made this judgment especially complex. </p>
<p>Fueled by <a href="http://www.chron.com/news/texas/article/Harvey-s-disaster-mix-Warm-water-huge-rains-11961152.php">warmer-than-average Gulf waters</a>, Harvey <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-harvey-images-rapid-intensification">grew in 72 hours</a> from a scattered tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane. Its path post-landfall was hard to forecast because <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/25/why-hurricane-harveys-future-so-uncertain-hard-predict/601792001/">“steering currents”</a> in the upper atmosphere were extremely weak. Rainfall predictions changed considerably as Harvey approached landfall, and forecasters were unsure where the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2017/live-updates/weather/hurricane-harvey-updates-preparation-evacuations-forecast-storm-latest/highly-respected-computer-model-projects-up-to-60-inches-of-rain/?utm_term=.f8a2efa6cc4d">heaviest rainfall</a> would occur. Hurricane models <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/28/forecasts-for-harvey-were-excellent-but-show-where-predictions-can-improve/?utm_term=.09cc537feaf1">began to converge</a> on the idea that rainfall amounts were going to be exceptionally high only 36 hours before the storm hit. </p>
<p>At that point, as former Houston Mayor Bill White <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/29/former-houston-mayor-bill-white-evacuate-city">explained earlier this week</a>, local decisions become “very difficult.” The situation echoed New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin’s evacuation order 19 hours before Hurricane Katrina struck the city in 2005. When Nagin acted, there was <a href="http://katrina.house.gov/full_katrina_report.htm">not enough time</a> for residents to muster the resources they needed to move or get help to evacuate. When Katrina made landfall, 70,000 individuals were stranded in the city.</p>
<p>Evacuations may either help or hinder emergency responders. Disasters, <a href="http://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-management/about-disasters/what-is-a-disaster/">by definition</a>, are hazard events that overwhelm local resources. Mandatory evacuations may make the most sense in rural communities, like those around Corpus Christi, where local authorities recognize they do not have the capability to effectively respond to a severe event. </p>
<p>For larger urban areas, evacuations can be <a href="https://www.nga.org/files/live/sites/NGA/files/pdf/GovGuideMassEvacuation.pdf">extremely expensive</a>, and in worst-case scenarios can <a href="https://medium.com/cases-in-crisis-disaster/creating-disasters-through-mass-urban-evacuation-1a6277979435">create emergencies</a> of their own. Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner was haunted by his city’s evacuation before Hurricane Rita in 2005, in which <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-governor-mayor-split-over-if-houston-needed-evacuations-1503880263">100 people died</a>. Turner <a href="https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/901154698316722176">advised citizens</a> to “think twice before leaving Houston en masse” ahead of Harvey. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184243/original/file-20170831-2020-1dm20i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin, left, Councilman Oliver Thomas and Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco speak during a news conference about Hurricane Katrina, Saturday, Aug. 27, 2005, two days before the storm made landfall in Louisiana. Nagin declared a mandatory evacuation the next day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Louisiana-United-/7d1013f740e1da11af9f0014c2589dfb/613/0">AP Photo/Cheryl Gerber</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Complexity of evacuation calculations</h2>
<p>There is no formula for these risk/capacity calculations. They are ultimately made by public officials who have their own situational awareness, based on <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/sources-power">past experiences</a> and their <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/sensemaking-in-organizations/book4988">individual ability to process complexity</a>. Personal or organizational <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12092">worldviews about disasters and resilience</a>, as well as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.25.4.958">the legality and ethics of ordering mandatory evacuations</a>, may shape their decisions. Some leaders see evacuations as part of government’s role as a provider and as a form of assistance. Others, like the mayor of Corpus Christi, see it as telling private property owners what to do.</p>
<p>Evacuation calls are also informed by community views about disasters, which are rooted in <a href="http://www.ijmed.org/articles/312/download/">experiences with past disaster events</a>, <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol17/iss3/art5/">local knowledge of hazards</a>, and <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/9834/facing-the-unexpected-disaster-preparedness-and-response-in-the-united">prevailing culture and norms</a>. This is precisely why state officials say that local leaders know best. These considerations can pose dilemmas for local elected officials, though. As they know, citizens are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2013.0890">likely to resent</a> an evacuation order that proves to be unnecessary. </p>
<h2>Learning from Harvey</h2>
<p>As floodwaters from Harvey recede and communities begin the long process of recovery, it will be important to assess decisions that were made about evacuations, and determine whether – and at what point in time and storm severity – they could have been more effective. </p>
<p>Another key question is how people perceive and respond to gaps in mandatory evacuations, like those in Corpus Christi and Houston. Were there substantial numbers of <a href="https://training.fema.gov/emiweb/downloads/ijems/articles/hurricane%20evacuation%20behavior.pdf">“shadow evacuations</a>,” in which people outside of mandatory evacuation zones moved voluntarily? Did households take other preparatory actions in lieu of retreating, and were they effective? </p>
<p>It is critical to revisit the days and hours before Harvey made landfall to identify ways of improving communication by local government agencies. How did it affect Houston-area residents when Texas Governor Greg Abbott <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/25/officials-send-texans-mixed-messages-hurricane-evacuations/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1503703497">encouraged them to retreat</a> while city officials <a href="http://abc13.com/weather/officials-to-harris-co-residents-dont-evacuate-yet/2340538/">told them to stay home</a>? </p>
<p>Beyond decisions in the countdown to the storm, there are other hard questions. Why is there hostility in Corpus Christi toward mandatory evacuations? What might shift that community’s <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=18573">thinking about risk</a>? And why is it logistically unfeasible to safely evacuate Houston’s most vulnerable and exposed residents en masse? Evacuating all six million residents from the Houston area is unthinkable. But how can we Texans improve our transportation infrastructure and systems to effectively evacuate very large groups, and even entire communities? That could involve options like the <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/business/business/2017/02/23/texas-rural-roots-urban-future-high-speed-collision-course">hotly contested high-speed railway</a> that a private developer wants to build from Houston to Dallas. This may require <a href="http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Texas-lawmakers-didn-t-stop-fast-trains-this-11202560.php">public investment</a> that state lawmakers were unwilling to commit in the most recent legislative session.</p>
<p>Texans have been tough in the face of one hell of a storm. Now it’s time to find creative solutions so that we emerge even stronger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashley Ross receives funding from the National Academies Gulf Research Program. In the past she has been the recipient of support from the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. </span></em></p>Why did some Texas coastal cities order mandatory evacuations ahead of Hurricane Harvey while others, including Houston, did not? There is no formula for these decisions; either choice can backfire.Ashley Ross, Assistant Professor of Marine Sciences, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/822022017-08-17T01:27:38Z2017-08-17T01:27:38ZFirstNet for emergency communications: 6 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181830/original/file-20170811-13459-zr7tw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">FirstNet could relieve emergency workers of having to carry multiple radios and other communications devices.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Finance-amp-Business-Louisia-/4af76d8a48e1da11af9f0014c2589dfb/14/0">AP Photo/Ric Francis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: In the aftermath of 9/11, public safety officials in New York City and around the country realized that firefighters, police officers and ambulance workers needed to be able to <a href="https://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/visuals/DOD-LSN-Final-2017.pdf">talk to each other at an emergency scene</a> – not just to their <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.2010.00785.x">supervisors and dispatchers</a>. The solution was nearly 16 years in coming, but on March 30, the First Responder Network Authority, or FirstNet, was created. It’s one of the largest public-private partnership agreements ever, between the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of Commerce) and a group of companies led by AT&T. AT&T and its partners will develop and manage a nationwide wireless broadband network for use by first responders. Each U.S. state and territory is in the process of deciding whether it wants to <a href="https://www.ntia.doc.gov/files/ntia/publications/sapp_opt_out_process_02162017_0.pdf">build its own towers and wired connections</a> or <a href="https://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/factors-governor-decision.pdf">let the AT&T group do the construction</a>. Ladimer Nagurney and Anna Nagurney, scholars of communications and network systems, respectively, explain what this multi-billion-dollar effort is, and what it means.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is FirstNet?</h2>
<p>The system nicknamed FirstNet was created by Congress in the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/house-bill/3630">Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012</a>. Under the contract with the government, the <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2017/03/firstnet-partners-att-build-465-billion-wireless-broadband-network">group led by AT&T</a> will build, operate and maintain a new nationwide communications network, providing high-speed wireless communications for public safety agencies and personnel. The network will be protected against unauthorized intrusion and <a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-a-high-speed-internet-lane-for-emergency-situations-79151">strong enough to withstand disasters</a> that might damage other communications systems. Emergency workers will be able to preempt other users’ traffic on the network, and will be able to send and receive as much data as they need to during their emergency work.</p>
<h2>2. Why do we need it?</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001, public safety agencies found that the first responders had a hard time sharing critical information throughout their agencies, or between different responding organizations. In just one tragic instance, after the south tower of the World Trade Center collapsed, the Fire Department of New York ordered all firefighters to <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/communication-breakdown-on-9-11/">evacuate the north tower</a>. But many firefighters didn’t hear the order over their radios – and city and Port Authority police officers didn’t communicate on the same frequencies, so they never had a chance to hear the warning.</p>
<p>Four years later, the <a href="https://m.csmonitor.com/2005/0915/p04s01-usmb.html">same problems weakened officials’ response</a> to Hurricane Katrina. Most of the early efforts to solve this problem focused on making sure emergency workers’ radios could communicate with each other properly. In the intervening years, though, first responders have increasingly used smartphones, tablets and computers. They need to do more than talk; they need to share data among those devices – such as building layouts, possible environmental hazards, information about who and where victims might be and even basic details like local weather conditions. </p>
<p>Another change over time is our understanding of who first responders are. It’s not just police, firefighters and emergency medical personnel. <a href="http://www.nfro.org/who.html">Other public agencies</a> also are involved from the very early stages of a crisis, including transit agencies and environmental protection workers. Private companies are needed too, handling <a href="https://www.epa.gov/waterutilityresponse">damage or interruptions to utilities services</a> such as electricity, water, gas, telephone, cable TV and cellular service. </p>
<p>All of those groups need wireless communications at or near a disaster site. At the moment, they must compete with the general public: People inside the disaster area are often trying to seek help by calling 911 or texting friends or relatives. They may even post videos and photos of what is happening to social media sites. Loved ones elsewhere also flood communications networks, checking in as “safe” and trying to contact people they know who might be affected, to make sure they’re OK too. After the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, for example, <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3008458/why-your-phone-doesnt-work-during-disasters-and-how-fix-it">all the major cellular networks got overloaded</a> by the number of people trying to make calls and send texts at the same time. (This even happens during nonemergency situations, such as concerts and <a href="https://arstechnica.com/features/2012/08/why-your-smart-device-cant-get-wifi-in-the-home-teams-stadium/">sporting events</a>.)</p>
<p>What’s more, many mobile broadband companies <a href="https://www.cnet.com/g00/how-to/how-to-tell-if-your-wireless-carrier-is-throttling-data/">limit the amount of high-speed data</a> a user can consume in a given month, either cutting off traffic or slowing it down significantly. But a first responder using a camera-equipped drone to inspect, say, a dam that might be breached needs unlimited high-speed communications to get real-time information that can protect both first responders and the public. </p>
<h2>3. Who will pay for it?</h2>
<p>The Federal Communications Commission has been rearranging the frequencies television channels use to broadcast their signals, making room in the electromagnetic spectrum for additional wireless broadband services. The agency recently <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/about-fcc/fcc-initiatives/incentive-auctions">auctioned off the rights</a> to use some of those frequencies to <a href="http://www.commlawmonitor.com/2017/04/articles/internet/fcc-announces-the-results-of-the-19-8-billion-broadcast-incentive-auction/">50 winning bidders including T-Mobile, Dish and Comcast</a>, raising US$19.8 billion.</p>
<p>Of that, $6 billion will be paid to the AT&T group, which will spend that money, plus an <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-firstnet-at-t-contract-idUSKBN171209">additional $40 billion</a>, to build and operate the network.</p>
<p>Money will also come from payments from emergency response agencies, which will have to <a href="https://www.firstnet.com/plans">buy a FirstNet service plan</a> for each device, at prices expected to be similar to today’s mobile pricing. That revenue will also help fund the network, cover the companies’ investments and help generate enough of a profit that the AT&T group has promised to repay the $6 billion to the U.S. Treasury after the FirstNet contract expires in 25 years.</p>
<h2>4. What will happen when there’s not an emergency?</h2>
<p>When there is no emergency in an area, the bandwidth on the FirstNet network in that area will be available to AT&T to sell to private or corporate customers. This revenue, in addition to that from the first responder users themselves, is expected to pay for FirstNet.</p>
<h2>5. What do other countries do about this problem?</h2>
<p>Because of the close relationship between the U.S. and Canadian broadband services, Canada is creating <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/psbn-en.aspx">a Public Safety Broadband Network</a> using the same frequency spectrum and protocols as the U.S. so that agencies on both sides of the border can connect to each other easily.</p>
<p>The U.K. is building an Emergency Services Network, expected to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d7981bf4-5730-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2">begin partial operation near the end of 2017</a>. South Korea expects to complete its public safety wireless network in time to be <a href="https://www.rrmediagroup.com/Features/FeaturesDetails/FID/482">used during the 2018 Winter Olympics</a>. Several other countries have networks that are in <a href="http://e.huawei.com/us/publications/global/ict_insights/201608271037/focus/201608271435">various stages of design and construction</a>.</p>
<h2>6. FirstNet is supposed to last 25 years. What does that mean, and how will it happen?</h2>
<p>As <a href="http://www.electronicdesign.com/4g/wireless-companies-follow-roadmap-past-4g-and-5g">broadband wireless technology improves</a>, our devices and networks will too, including FirstNet.</p>
<p>The effort is also expected to promote technological innovations. Already, some of the technical solutions that serve first responders, such as the ability for <a href="https://resources.ext.nokia.com/asset/200168">devices to connect directly to each other</a>, have been incorporated into LTE standards. Some <a href="https://www.firstnet.com/apps">apps developed for first responders</a> may also release versions useful to others.</p>
<p>It’s hard to know what we’ll need in 25 years – just as 25 years ago, it would have been very hard to envision the technical details of today’s interconnected world. But building FirstNet will help protect and serve both first responders and the public during emergencies – and it will enhance communications in times of peace and prosperity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ladimer Nagurney, in an inherited IRA, owns approximately $1200 of AT&T stock. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nagurney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A multibillion-dollar effort is just beginning to build an all-new nationwide wireless broadband network for emergency responders. How will it work, why do we need it and how will it last 25 years?Ladimer Nagurney, Professor of Electrical, Computer and Biomedical Engineering, University of HartfordAnna Nagurney, John F. Smith Memorial Professor of Operations Management, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679802017-01-05T01:39:03Z2017-01-05T01:39:03ZAttackers can make it impossible to dial 911<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148322/original/image-20161201-25660-w3qwu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When calling these people, you want to be able to get through.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/911/aboutus.htm">Fairfax County, Virginia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s not often that any one of us needs to dial 911, but we know how important it is for it to work when one needs it. It is critical that 911 services always be available – both for the practicality of responding to emergencies, and to give people peace of mind. But a new type of attack has emerged that can <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02353v1.pdf">knock out 911 access</a> – our research explains how these attacks occur as a result of the system’s <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02353v1.pdf">vulnerablities</a>. We show these attacks can create extremely serious repercussions for public safety.</p>
<p>In recent years, people have become more aware of a type of cyberattack called “denial-of-service,” in which websites are flooded with traffic – often generated by many computers hijacked by a hacker and acting in concert with each other. This <a href="https://www.akamai.com/us/en/our-thinking/state-of-the-internet-report/global-state-of-the-internet-security-ddos-attack-reports.jsp">happens all the time</a>, and has affected traffic to <a href="http://www.aba.com/tools/function/fraud/pages/distributeddenialofserviceattacks-ddos.aspx">financial institutions</a>, <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/article/blizzard-hit-with-ddos-disrupting-play-for-gamers/">entertainment companies</a>, <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/hackers-attack-european-commission/">government agencies</a> and even <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/10/internet-outage-ddos-dns-dyn/">key internet routing services</a>.</p>
<p>A similar attack is possible on 911 call centers. In October, what appears to be the <a href="http://arstechnica.com/security/2016/10/teen-arrested-for-iphone-hack-that-threatened-emergency-911-system/">first such attack launched from a smartphone happened in Arizona</a>. An <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/surprise-breaking/2016/10/27/phoenix-meetkumar-desai-arrested-cyberattack-911-system/92847226/">18-year-old hacker was arrested</a> on charges that he conducted a telephone denial-of-service attack on a local 911 service. If we are to prevent this from happening in more places, we need to understand how 911 systems work, and where the weaknesses lie, both in technology and policy.</p>
<h2>Understanding denial of service</h2>
<p>Computer networks have capacity limits – they can handle only so much traffic, so many connections, at one time. If they get overloaded, new connections can’t get through. The same thing happens with phone lines – which are mostly computer network connections anyway.</p>
<p>So if an attacker can manage to tie up all the available connections with malicious traffic, no legitimate information – like regular people browsing a website, or calling 911 in a real emergency – can make it through.</p>
<p>This type of attack is most often done by spreading malware to a great many computers, infecting them so that they can be controlled remotely. Smartphones, which are after all just very small computers, can also be hijacked in this way. Then the attacker can tell them to inundate a particular site or phone number with traffic, effectively taking it offline. </p>
<p>Many internet companies have taken significant steps to guard against this sort of attack online. For example, <a href="https://projectshield.withgoogle.com/public/">Google Shield</a> is a service that protect news sites from attacks by using Google’s massive network of internet servers to filter out attacking traffic while allowing through only legitimate connections. Phone companies, however, have not taken similar action.</p>
<h2>Addressing the 911 telephone system</h2>
<p>Before 1968, American emergency services had local phone numbers. People had to <a href="https://www.nh.gov/safety/divisions/emergservices/nh911/pubinfo/documents/history.pdf">dial specific numbers</a> to reach the fire, police or ambulance services – or could dial “0” for the operator, who could connect them. But that was inconvenient, and dangerous – people couldn’t remember the right number, or didn’t know it because they were just visiting the area. </p>
<p>The 911 system was created to serve as a more universal and effective system. As it has developed over the years, a 911 caller is connected with a specialized call center – called a public safety answering point – that is responsible for getting information from the caller and dispatching the appropriate emergency services.</p>
<p>These call centers are located in communities across the country, and each provides service to specific geographic regions. Some serve individual cities, while others serve wider areas, such as counties. When telephone customers dial 911 on their landlines or mobile phones, the telephone companies’ systems make the connection to the appropriate call center.</p>
<p>To better understand how denial-of-service attacks could affect 911 call systems, we created a detailed computer simulation of North Carolina’s 911 infrastructure, and a general simulation of the entire U.S. emergency-call system.</p>
<h2>Investigating the impact of an attack</h2>
<p>After we set up our simulation, we attacked it to find out how vulnerable it is. We found that it was possible to significantly reduce the availability of 911 service with only 6,000 infected mobile phones – just 0.0006 percent of the state’s population.</p>
<p>Using only that relatively small number of phones, it is possbile to effectively block 911 calls from 20 percent of North Carolina landline callers, and half of mobile customers. In our simulation, even people who called back four or five times would not be able to reach a 911 operator to get help.</p>
<p>Nationally, a similar percentage, representing just 200,000 hijacked smartphones, would have a similar effect. But this is, in a certain sense, an optimistic finding. Trey Forgety, the director of government affairs for the National Emergency Number Association, responded to our findings in the Washington Post, saying, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/09/09/how-americas-911-emergency-response-system-can-be-hacked/">We actually believe that the vulnerability is in fact worse than [the researchers] have calculated</a>.”</p>
<h2>Policy makes the threat worse</h2>
<p>These sorts of attacks could, potentially, be made less effective if malicious calls were identified and blocked at the moment they were placed. Mobile phones have two different kinds of identifying information. The IMSI (International Mobile Subscriber Identity) is the phone number a person must call to reach that phone. The IMEI (International Mobile Station Equipment Identity) is used to track the specific physical device on the network.</p>
<p>A defense system could be set up to identify 911 calls coming from a particular phone that has made more than a certain number of 911 calls in a given period of time – say more than 10 calls in the last two minutes.</p>
<p>This raises ethical problems – what if there is a real and ongoing emergency, and someone keeps losing phone reception while talking to a dispatcher? If they called back too many times, would their cries for help be blocked? In any case, attackers who take over many phones could circumvent this sort of defense by telling their hijacked phones to call less frequently – and by having more individual phones make the calls. </p>
<p>But federal rules to ensure access to emergency services mean this issue might be moot anyway. A 1996 Federal Communications Commission order requires mobile phone companies to <a href="https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/services/911-services/enhanced911/archives/factsheet_requirements_012001.pdf">forward all 911 calls directly</a> to emergency dispatchers. Cellphone companies are not allowed to check whether the phone the call is coming from has paid to have an active account in service. They cannot even check whether the phone has a SIM card in place. The FCC rule is simple: If anyone dials 911 on a mobile phone, they must be connected to an emergency call center.</p>
<p>The rule makes sense from a public safety perspective: If someone is having (or witnessing) a life-threatening emergency, they shouldn’t be barred from seeking help just because they didn’t pay their cellphone bill, or don’t happen to have an active account. </p>
<p>But the rule opens an vulnerability in the system, which attackers can exploit. A sophisticated attacker could infect a phone in a way that makes it dial 911 but report it does not have a SIM card. This “anonymized” phone reports no identity, no phone number and no information about who owns it. Neither the phone company nor the 911 call center could block this call without possibly blocking a legitimate call for help.</p>
<p>The countermeasures that exist, or are possible, today are difficult and highly flawed. Many of them involve blocking certain devices from calling 911, which carries the risk of preventing a legitimate call for help. But they indicate areas where further inquiry – and collaboration between researchers, telecommunications companies, regulators and emergency personnel – could yield useful breakthroughs. </p>
<p>For example, cellphones might be required to run a monitoring software to block themselves from making fraudulent 911 calls. Or 911 systems could examine identifying information of incoming calls and prioritize those made from phones that are not trying to mask themselves. We must find ways to safeguard the 911 system, which protects us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yisroel Mirsky is affiliated with the department of software and information systems engineering at Ben-Gurion University, and the BGU Cyber Security Research Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mordechai Guri and Yuval Elovici do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘Denial of service’ cyberattacks are increasingly used to shut down websites. New research reveals that 911 call centers are vulnerable to the threat as well.Mordechai Guri, Head of R&D, Cyber Security Research Center; Chief Scientist, Morphisec endpoint security, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevYisroel Mirsky, Ph.D. Candidate in Information Systems Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevYuval Elovici, Professor of Information Systems Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/651422016-09-09T21:18:14Z2016-09-09T21:18:14ZDisaster communications: Lessons from 9/11<p>“The hotel is being evacuated. Please return to your rooms and prepare to exit.” That was the first communication one of us, Dr. Terndrup, recalls receiving at a medical research meeting in the Brooklyn Marriott hotel that September morning. </p>
<p>Out on the street was pandemonium, Terndrup remembers. Just two miles from what would come to be called “Ground Zero,” people were running away from Manhattan. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0300-9572(02)00442-2">Members of our team</a> – all medical professionals – split up to find ways to help. With a medic I had never met before, and whose name I didn’t ever learn, I walked across the Brooklyn Bridge, toward the World Trade Center site. Most people were heading the other way, of course.</p>
<p>The medic and I didn’t know quite what to do, though, because we didn’t know what was going on. We could see the smoke and ash covering much of the city skyline, as we headed in to help. Even the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsIWPPw-JzU">nonstop TV coverage</a> didn’t give us many details we could use. Once we got to Manhattan, we got some useful information from police and other medics. But despite being in the heart of a major city with television cameras everywhere and thousands of emergency workers responding, it was challenging to get accurate, timely information. </p>
<p>What we and the other <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/cc1053">responders learned that day</a>, under the pressure of a disaster of incredible scale, scope and urgency – not to mention the international media spotlight – went on to spark major changes in U.S. emergency response communication.</p>
<h2>Setting up to respond</h2>
<p>Once over the bridge and into lower Manhattan, the medic and I found our way to an office building off Vesey and Church streets, where we joined several dozen doctors, nurses, paramedics, police, firefighters and others hoping to help. We set up a makeshift clinic, including securing four elevators to stay on the ground floor to serve as “treatment rooms.” Then we waited.</p>
<p>When someone said there was a group of exhausted firefighters in a nearby bank, a few people went over to help rinse out their smoke- and dust-filled eyes (the most common problem) and help them use nebulizers (acquired from a nearby pharmacy) to combat the effects of smoke inhalation.</p>
<p>Communications were primitive at best. Cellular service was completely gone. In the first few minutes after the planes hit the towers, New York City’s 9-1-1 call centers received 3,000 calls – throughout that day, <a href="http://psc.apcointl.org/2011/09/06/911-10-years-later/">more than 55,000 came in</a>.</p>
<p>Thousands of law enforcement officers and firefighters were <a href="http://psc.apcointl.org/2011/08/10/10-years-later-n-y-responders-communicate-better/">trying to connect by phone, radio</a> and <a href="https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/11/leaked_911_text.html">two-way pager</a>. Devices and networks, not to mention personnel, were overloaded. <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/communication-breakdown-on-9-11/">Police radios were generally working</a>, but the best information was often by word of mouth. </p>
<p>At our office-building clinic, the volunteers resorted to face-to-face communication, sending people to meet up with a group of responders gathering on the nearby Pace University campus and bring back what information they could. The main message rapidly went from bad to worse. It could be summed up as, “There’s nobody coming out of that alive.”</p>
<h2>Planning to communicate</h2>
<p>While obviously both of us hope nothing like that ever happens again, as emergency responders it’s our job to plan for the unthinkably disastrous. No matter what, responders need to be able to deliver messages to the public, talk to hospitals, and connect with each other.</p>
<p>Since 1999, New York City’s Office of Emergency Management, charged with coordinating all aspects of the response, had occupied <a href="http://empirezone.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/giuliani-911-and-the-emergency-command-center-continued/">permanent headquarters in Seven World Trade Center</a>, on Greenwich Street, just north of the landmark twin towers. A vital communications link was the <a href="http://www.emsworld.com/article/10324490/new-york-citys-public-safety-communications-three-years-after">radio repeater system</a> based on the ground floor of One World Trade Center, the north tower. The loss of those facilities – and key personnel working there – significantly hampered the response.</p>
<p>Today, it’s considered a bad idea to put an emergency operations center near places likely to be direct targets or at risk for collateral damage. When building a new emergency-response headquarters, New York City put it across the East River in <a href="http://www.interiorsandsources.com/article-details/articleid/5333/title/new-york-city-office-of-emergency-management-new-york-ny-.aspx">downtown Brooklyn</a>, far from all potential targets and landmarks in lower Manhattan.</p>
<h2>Making the connections</h2>
<p>But that distance can be a weakness if communications are reduced, as we were, to sending messengers on foot to have face-to-face conversations to relay information.</p>
<p>Even if radios and phones are working, they’re much less useful if responders can’t talk to each other. In 2001, the Fire Department of New York, the New York Police Department and the Port Authority Police <a href="http://psc.apcointl.org/2010/09/09/911-five-years-later-the-way-we-were/">all used different radio systems</a> with different capabilities on different frequencies. Unable to connect with each other, neither the agencies nor the rescuers themselves could efficiently coordinate to help victims. This disconnection may also have prevented <a href="http://psc.apcointl.org/2011/08/10/10-years-later-n-y-responders-communicate-better/">the evacuation of responders</a> before the buildings fell.</p>
<p>If leaders are to be farther away and yet still act rapidly in an unfolding situation, they need more than one way to communicate with each other and with people directly on the scene. When one system gets cut off or stops working properly, there must be other options.</p>
<h2>Constructing resilience</h2>
<p>In our work with Ohio’s FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Team, <a href="http://www.publicsafety.ohio.gov/ohtf1/">Task Force 1</a>, we have multiple communication methods. Mainly we use a <a href="https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/60001707365.pdf">national wireless network</a> – which itself is designed to be <a href="https://www.verizon.com/about/emergency-information/prepared-weather-storm">resilient in emergencies</a>, with redundant network connections and switching equipment and round-the-clock system monitoring. The company can also bring in portable cellular towers when regular cell towers are disabled, or to improve coverage in an area where existing service is overloaded.</p>
<p>We have wireless service for the bus that serves as our mobile operations center, and for cell phones and tablets issued to our task force leaders. The bus also has a Wi-Fi system that can connect additional devices.</p>
<p>If the cellular network is severely compromised by the disaster, we can use satellites. <a href="http://www.cobham.com/communications-and-connectivity/satcom/land-mobile-satcom-systems/land-based-satcom-applications/explorer-msat-g3/explorer-msat-g3-data-sheet/">MSAT devices</a> carry our voice traffic, and our data travels via portable <a href="http://www.bgansatellite.com/">BGAN terminals</a>, which connect to laptop computers. </p>
<p>Our base of operations (BoO) at a disaster is equipped with a <a href="http://www.gatr.com/products/1-8-antenna-system">1.8-meter VSAT satellite dish</a> that can provide data and internet access for all the responders in the area. As further backup, we have portable radios and a repeater system.</p>
<h2>What we communicate about</h2>
<p>Another communications lesson from 9/11 comes from something that, tragically, didn’t happen. That day, <a href="https://www.newsday.com/911-anniversary/9-11-01-treating-the-victims-1.790094">New York hospitals called in all available staff</a>, to be ready to receive large numbers of patients. They worried, as did we, in our makeshift clinic just north of the twin towers, that thousands of people would need lifesaving care all at the same time.</p>
<p>Yet there was <a href="http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2006/RAND_TR317.pdf">no way to know which hospitals were full</a>, which ones had operating rooms available or anything else about where to send patients, had they arrived in large numbers. Some hospitals likely would have been beyond overwhelmed, while others nearby might have had plenty of space and available doctors and nurses standing ready.</p>
<p>The lesson has spread across the country. Columbus, Ohio, where we work now, uses a system called “<a href="http://www.centralohiotraumasystem.org/rtas">Real Time Activity Status</a>,” which connects all the hospitals in our own Franklin County and three neighboring counties. It notifies ambulance dispatchers when their emergency rooms are too busy and need to divert patients to other hospitals. A similar system saved many lives <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-bostons-hospitals-were-ready">after the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing</a>.</p>
<p>By ensuring that – no matter what happens – we can communicate with each other, the emergency response community <a href="http://www.jems.com/articles/supplements/special-topics/courage-under-fire/ems-untold.html">keeps the memory of 9/11 alive</a> in our own way every single day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Terndrup receives funding from the National Institute of Health. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Kman is affiliated with Ohio Task Force 1, FEMA Urban Search and Rescue. </span></em></p>What we and other responders learned that day would go on to spark major changes in U.S. emergency response efforts.Thomas Terndrup, Professor of Emergency Medicine, The Ohio State UniversityNicholas Kman, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/639042016-08-16T13:14:40Z2016-08-16T13:14:40ZWelcome to City Plaza, Athens: a new approach to housing refugees<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134317/original/image-20160816-13017-1h92lzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A very different approach to the migration crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vicki Squire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are now around <a href="http://www.rescue.org/press-releases/idomeni-irc-concerned-over-humanitarian-standards-some-new-sites-31108">55,000 people stranded</a> in Greece as a result of <a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-evidence-shows-how-badly-the-eu-needs-to-rethink-its-strategy-55774">Europe’s failed response</a> to the so-called migration crisis – and many refugees are losing hope. Many languish in camps dotted across the Greek islands, and others have decided to stay in Turkey rather than face the <a href="https://opendemocracy.net/5050/jane-freedman-vasiliki-touhouliotis/fleeing-europe">bleak conditions</a> in Europe.</p>
<p>But there is a new accommodation project in Athens called City Plaza which is providing refugees with much-needed hope. City Plaza is a disused seven-storey hotel near Victoria Square, which has been occupied by the <a href="http://solidarity2refugees.gr/refugee-accomodation-center-city-plaza/">Economic and Political Refugee Solidarity Initiative</a>. The hotel has been closed for business for around seven years, but the building remains fully equipped and is now being used to house nearly 400 people who arrived to Greece from Turkey in the past year. </p>
<p>Unlike the accommodation provided by the <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/">United Nations</a> and its partners, people at City Plaza are not chosen on the basis of their vulnerable status or nationality. The people accommodated on site were purposefully chosen <em>not</em> according to whether they qualified for <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/european-agenda-migration/proposal-implementation-package/docs/20160518/communication_third_report_on_relocation_and_resettlement_en.pdf">relocation</a>, and questions about why people migrated were not a factor in identifying those to be accommodated. Instead, attention was paid to ensuring a mix of nationalities, a gender balance, and a combination of religious beliefs.</p>
<p>When I visited in May 2016 there were about 400 residents, including around 20 single parents, six single men, ten unaccompanied minors, four people with extreme disabilities, several pregnant women and three newborn babies. All had to agree to abide by a basic set of rules, such as not drinking alcohol on the premises or acting in a violent way toward others. They also had to agree to participate in the daily activities of the collective, such as cooking and cleaning.</p>
<p>City Plaza is not funded by any external agencies and relies on donations and fundraising. Decisions in City Plaza are made on a collective process which occurs through different assemblies that are held on a regular basis. Each resident agrees on entry to participate fully in the community based on respect for each person regardless of gender and religious or ethnic backgrounds. </p>
<h2>Building a community</h2>
<p>Though clearly the process of deciding who gets to stay at City Plaza is a difficult one, the activists involved in setting up the site deliberately select a combination of people who require additional support and those who could provide it, such as teachers and translators. This reflects a broader ethos within City Plaza: recognising that people are facing precarious situations but trying to avoid defining their existence according to their vulnerability.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134142/original/image-20160815-14915-1am5usg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A small scale experiment that is changing lives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vicki Squire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast with the charitable and sometimes victim-centric ethos of many organisations working in the area, the aim is to build a culture of mutual respect. The idea is that residents will then feel able to go out from City Plaza and find their own way forward in the city.</p>
<p>“We don’t want to make a ghetto within the city – even if it is a nice ghetto”, Nasim Lomani, a refugee from Afghanistan who is a long-standing resident of the city, tells me. City Plaza aims to be a place where people on the move in precarious situations can begin to rebuild their lives without being constrained by their status or vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>Clearly City Plaza is just one site and does not meet the needs of the up to 55,000 stranded people in Greece. Indeed, this is precisely why the activist collective seeks to do more than simply provide support to those within the re-used hotel. Members of the collective also work on refugee projects beyond the building.</p>
<p>“We can’t solve the problem”, Lomani tells me, “but we can be ready [to act in solidarity with refugees] when we are needed”. City Plaza has already inspired projects elsewhere, including a temporary residential facility, HOOST, in the east of Amsterdam.</p>
<p>City Plaza offers an alternative to camps – and it appears to be incredibly effective for those whose lives it touches. Many of the people I spoke to living in City Plaza <a href="http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/irs/crossingthemed/">explained</a> how even though they are frustrated at being stuck in Greece, they are in the best place they can be given the circumstances. Having visited several camps in Athens during my visit in May, I can only agree.</p>
<p>Of course City Plaza would be difficult to scale up. Government agencies can’t replicate this model for some migrants according to the same criteria as the collective, while leaving the rest behind in camps. But when we think about the squalid camps that tend to represent Europe’s current approach, the question has to be asked as to whether there is a different way to deal with this problem. Couldn’t the many disused buildings, not only in Athens but across various European cities, be used to foster collective living in a similar way to City Plaza?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vicki Squire receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and from the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>A group of activists is seeking to build a special community as an alternative response to the so-called migration crisis.Vicki Squire, Reader in International Security, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/634932016-08-10T22:23:59Z2016-08-10T22:23:59ZWhen disaster-response apps fail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133540/original/image-20160809-9203-1fjgdgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The scene in Nice the morning after the July 14 terror attack – during which an emergency-warning app failed to give timely notice.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lieu_de_l%27attentat_du_14_juillet_2016_%C3%A0_Nice_cropped.jpg">Michel Abada</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When a terrorist struck <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/live/truck-plows-into-crowd-in-nice-france/police-find-cache-of-weapons-inside-truck/">Nice, France, on July 14</a>, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/08/france-smartphone-app-alert-terror-attacks-saip">new French government app</a> designed to alert people failed. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/french-emergency-app-fails_us_5788328ee4b03fc3ee503d39?section">Three hours passed</a> before <a href="http://www.gouvernement.fr/appli-alerte-saip">SAIP, as the app is called</a>, warned people in and around Nice to the danger on the city’s waterfront during Bastille Day festivities.</p>
<p>This aspect of the tragedy highlights an emerging element of disaster preparation and response: the potential for smartphone apps, social media sites and information technology more broadly to assist both emergency responders and the public at large in figuring out what is happening and what to do about it.</p>
<p>A group I am in, with researchers from varied disaster-response backgrounds (including military, urban, wilderness and hospital service), has surveyed what’s already available on the market and found <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X15005099">smartphone apps that can help providers and the public alike</a>. Some help medical professionals deal with ordinary day-to-day work, viewing guidelines and medication databases, performing calculations, remotely monitoring patients’ vital signs and displaying radiology images. Others can help responders deal with chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear and explosive disasters, which is useful for members of <a href="http://www.publicsafety.ohio.gov/ohtf1/index.htm">FEMA teams like the one I’m on</a>. Apps for the public help them prepare for disasters, notify them of imminent problems, reconnect them with family members, and even help keep track of pets during emergencies.</p>
<p>But as the failure of the French app during the Nice attack illustrates, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12092">communication is almost always a problem</a> during disasters – no matter what kind of problem it is: weather-related, an attack of some kind or even just a power outage. Effective communication, such as an evacuation alert as a hurricane approaches, can save lives. Unfortunately, as we saw during Hurricane Katrina, disasters can themselves cause <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12130">damage resulting in communications breakdowns</a>. This problem is best solved by emergency planners using the same strategy individuals figured out for themselves in Nice: create multiple independent systems to ensure connectivity.</p>
<h2>Planning for redundancy</h2>
<p>In disasters, many emergency responders already anticipate communication failure and employ multiple systems. Hospitals, for example, handle most communication with paging systems and in-building intercoms. If those go down, doctors, nurses and other staff can reach each other on their cellular phones. Should those fail, many hospitals keep closets full of radios charged and ready for use.</p>
<p>This principle holds true for social media and smartphone apps, too. The SAIP app’s failure was due in part to its developer’s lack of attention to redundancy, <a href="http://mobile.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2016/07/21/pourquoi-l-application-alerte-attentat-n-a-pas-fonctionne-le-soir-de-la-tuerie-de-nice_4972750_4408996.html?xtref=https://t.co/MSoNWEUnVa">according to French news reports</a>, as well as an accidentally severed fiber-optic cable and a software error.</p>
<p>Although the SAIP app failed, citizens were able to communicate via social media. Citizens of Nice took to Facebook to use its <a href="https://www.facebook.com/about/safetycheck/">Safety Check</a> feature to post that they were safe, and to make sure friends and family had checked in OK. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.ad70cd1c8bc585e9470046cde334ee4b">This type of organic social media communication</a> also happened after the Boston Marathon bombing: People near the explosions quickly posted Twitter messages identifying the location and specifics of events, as well as their own whereabouts and safety.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The FEMA app’s main screen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fema.gov/mobile-app">FEMA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the newest technologies in communication and disaster response employ this crowdsourcing technique. The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/mobile-app">FEMA app</a> allows users to upload pictures and information about disasters, in addition to sending out information from the National Weather Service and other government agencies. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.ubalert.com/">ubAlert - Disaster Alert Network App</a> works similarly, saying in its promotional material that it can “create the world’s largest, most reliable, all-hazard disaster alerting network by combining data from global institutions and data providers with crowd-sourced user accounts.” Many regional apps operate this way too. For example, the government-run <a href="http://www.publicsafety.ohio.gov/">Safer Ohio App</a> has a “see something send something” function, allowing users to send in information about suspicious activity or even dial 911 directly from the app. Had the SAIP app been similarly equipped, its users could have been more rapidly informed by fellow citizens, despite the delay in the official notification process.</p>
<h2>Storing data in the app, versus online</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screen from the WISER app.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wiser.nlm.nih.gov/whats_new_iOS_4_6.html">National Library of Medicine</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we did our analysis of smartphone apps for disasters, we found that many of the apps aimed at use by emergency responders did not use much communication. Rather, they were reference materials, such as guidelines for medical triage or references on infectious agents. For example, the <a href="https://wiser.nlm.nih.gov/">WISER app from the National Library of Medicine</a> is designed to assist first responders to emergencies involving hazardous materials. It offers information about various substances from the National Library of Medicine Hazardous Substances DataBank.</p>
<p>However, new apps are increasingly including communication features. In addition to connecting users to each other, they can ensure reference material is up-to-date. These functions primarily rely on Wi-Fi, cellular data or Bluetooth connections. Smart app developers are including redundancy, like in the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/get-help/prepare-for-emergencies/mobile-apps">American Red Cross apps</a>. Its Flood app, for example, lets users notify others they are safe via social media, text message and e-mail.</p>
<h2>Creating new communications networks</h2>
<p>Beyond building communications redundancy into apps, some companies are building systems that will allow responders and the lay public alike to communicate without cellular data or Wi-Fi. An <a href="http://opengarden.com/firechat/">app called FireChat</a>, for example, can connect nearby phones directly via Wi-Fi or Bluetooth. This allows the users to create their own network. </p>
<p>According to FireChat’s developer, Open Garden, the app can combine multiple devices to create a real network, passing a message from one to the next until it reaches the intended recipient. This type of system can be an excellent substitute in <a href="http://rethink-iot.com/2015/10/23/smart-tahiti-networks-partners-firechat-to-combat-comms-disasters-with-iot/">situations where normal communications capabilities are limited</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A backpack with a goTenna device attached.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dopieslife/23229944776/">dopieslife/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This approach doesn’t just involve smartphone applications. A device called a goTenna can connect to a smartphone via Bluetooth and <a href="http://www.gotenna.com/pages/emergencies">communicate with other goTenna users</a> up to several miles away. This works only between people who have goTenna devices, but is another way people can create what the company calls “people-powered” networks that do not need towers, routers or satellites. The obvious downside is that only people with the devices are able to communicate – having just one during a disaster is not enough, and in fact the company only sells them in pairs.</p>
<p>In addition, there are devices emergency responders use that are also available to the public. Some members of my FEMA team use a <a href="http://www.inreachdelorme.com/">Delorme inReach Communicator</a>, which allows users to send text messages over the <a href="https://www.iridium.com">global Iridium satellite network</a>. It’s expensive, but in major disasters it is a potentially valuable backup link.</p>
<p>When communications break down in a crisis, it’s a problem for emergency responders and regular people alike. With more reliable connections, responders can be better informed about the situations they’ll face, the public can be notified of ways to help and how to avoid further problems. Sadly, disasters will keep occurring. But the future is bright for improved communication when they happen. It’s even possible that someday <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12092">smartphones may be able to monitor the environment automatically</a> and contribute to disaster alert systems on their own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Kman has no financial disclosures but is employed during disasters by FEMA. </span></em></p>The solution to emergency communications: redundancy, redundancy, redundancy.Nicholas Kman, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/586492016-05-23T02:45:41Z2016-05-23T02:45:41ZHide your location on Twitter? We can still find you and that’s not a bad thing in an emergency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122920/original/image-20160517-9501-17ui6hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Where am I?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Of the millions of Twitter users, there are about 98% who want to hide their location. So they switch off the function that publicly <a href="https://support.twitter.com/articles/122236">displays the location</a> of any tweet.</p>
<p>There could be many reasons why people don’t want their location to be broadcast to the world, but privacy is usually the main driver.</p>
<p>But what they don’t realise is that it’s still possible to locate many of them, down to at least a few kilometres in some cases. For some authorities, that can be very useful.</p>
<p>What most Twitter users do not know is that when they tweet, they are not only sharing a short message but also <a href="http://readwrite.com/2010/04/19/this_is_what_a_tweet_looks_like/">some other information</a>. This “metadata” may include a subset of their profile, the type of device their message has been sent from, date and some location data about the message.</p>
<h2>Details in the metadata</h2>
<p>Metadata may not be made visible by the mobile phone Twitter app to a user’s followers, but anyone can access it using the programming interface Twitter publicly provides. So potentially, using several location elements in metadata, the place where a Tweet is posted can be determined.</p>
<p>First, let’s have a look at what these elements are. When setting up an account, users specify a location for their profile (it can be left empty as well).</p>
<p>In addition, they have the option to tag a geographical coordinate to their tweets; it is called geotagging. This can be done by the users, or can be automatically derived from the positioning sensors of the device the user is tweeting from. </p>
<p>On top of the profile location and geotagging, users are also able to attach a place name (such as a city or neighbourhood) of their choice to a tweet. The place name is selected from a list that is provided by Twitter. </p>
<p>Besides all the location elements that a tweet implicitly carries, it may itself contain a place name in the 140 characters Twitter allows.</p>
<p>If users decide to geotag their tweets, the location of tweets will be available. </p>
<p>We undertook an experimental study using a random sample of more than 300,000 tweets collected globally in April 2015. Our research indicates only 2% of the tweets are geotagged. But it also revealed that about 40% of tweets contain other location elements we mentioned above.</p>
<h2>It’s a disaster</h2>
<p>While it makes sense that people want to protect their privacy when tweeting, in some domains such as disaster management (from earthquakes to bushfires, cyclones, flooding, a road crash, a street brawl, riot or any other disturbance), location is critical. </p>
<p>If there’s a twitter user nearby, they usually opt to share their thoughts on the experience to their social media followers. But if tweets are not geotagged, they are often thought to not be of value.</p>
<p>Our research indicates that social networking in general, and Twitter in particular, can bridge the gap that exists in the current emergency response systems regarding what it describes as the lack of immediate flow of information from people at the scene towards authorities or those who can provide help. </p>
<p>Supported by <a href="http://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJEM.2009.031564">a number of studies</a>, Twitter, among the social media platforms, is known to be a valuable augmentation to current emergency response systems. But this is not straightforward as the geographical location of tweets is not readily available to use if they are not geotagged.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/5/5/56">a recent study</a>, we developed a computational approach that employs and combines elements that some 40% of tweets contain – place and user profile – with textual content to estimate the geographical location of tweets.</p>
<p>This method is the first to consider all the possible elements of a tweet by scoring and ranking algorithms to achieve and predict the finest level of geographical granularity.</p>
<h2>Found you</h2>
<p>In terms of performance and accuracy, it is able to successfully estimate the location of 87% of the sample tweets with an average distance error of 12.2km and the median distance error of 4.5km.</p>
<p>For emergency authorities that can be very useful if they can pick up any information on the location, or movement of a particular event such as a bushfire.</p>
<p>So, if you want to protect your privacy when posting a general tweet, make sure your profile location is left blank, do not tag any location and do not mention place names. </p>
<p>But if you tweet about an emergency situation or incident, then make sure you include location information as much as you can in your tweets, and Twitter account setting. Your tweet will then become useful in any emergency response. It could even help save lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohsen Kalantari receives funding from Australian Research Council, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, the University of Melbourne, Open Geospatial Consortium and Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network. He is a member of Surveying and Spatial Sciences Institue and affiliated with International Federation of Surveyors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abbas Rajabifard receives funding from Australian Research Council, Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC, the University of Melbourne, Open Geospatial Consortium and Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network. He is a member of Surveying and Spatial Sciences Institue and is also an executive member of Global Spatial Data Infrastructure Association.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Farhad Laylavi has been a recipient of an Australian Postgraduate
Award from the University of Melbourne.</span></em></p>Twitter users caught up in any emergency situation are usually quick to share their experience with followers. That information can be useful to authorities.Mohsen Kalantari, Senior Lecturer in Geomatics, The University of MelbourneAbbas Rajabifard, Professor in Geomatics and SDI, The University of MelbourneFarhad Laylavi, PhD Candidate in Geomatics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/530412016-01-20T19:22:30Z2016-01-20T19:22:30ZFuture bushfires will be worse: we need to adapt now<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-26/great-ocean-road-fire-number-of-homes-lost-at-wye-river/7054840">devastating fires</a> that struck Wye River in Victoria on Christmas Day are, from an emergency response perspective, a success story. Despite the loss of 116 houses in the coastal town and nearby Separation Creek, nobody was killed. </p>
<p>The fire may have destroyed homes and in some cases livelihoods but the community presented a united front in terms of supporting one another and heading the evacuation warning, which was issued in plenty of time.</p>
<p>I spent the first part of January working with fire agencies to surveying the damage to houses in a bid to understand the impact of the fire. The community is truly thankful that no lives were lost in this terrible event. </p>
<p>The debate now shifts to how the community will <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria-government-launches-wye-river-rebuild-20160117-gm7o0e.html">rebuild</a> to withstand future and fires and other issues such as land instability.</p>
<p>Other communities have not been so lucky. The town Esperance in Western Australia was hit by fire in the 15th of December resulting in four lives and two homes lost. Two lives and 91 homes were lost in a fire north of Adelaide South Australia on the 25 of December and two lives and 121 homes were lost in the township of Yarloop in Western Australia on the 6 January. </p>
<p>As we look back over this summer’s fires and reflect on how communities and emergency services responded, we need to consider how the risk of fire is changing in a warming world. </p>
<h2>Fire safety is everyone’s responsibility</h2>
<p>Evacuation works well when there is sufficient warning and everyone decides to leave. It is reasonable for authorities to pick a threshold and say “it’s time to leave your home”. </p>
<p>But when this happens, the community has to act as one. Wye River did that very well; there wasn’t anyone left in the affected area except firefighters. This reflects a sense of shared responsibility for community safety between residents and fire authorities. </p>
<p>In Australia between 1900 and 2010, a total of 674 civilian lives were lost in <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Landscape-management/Bushfire/Life-loss-database">260 bushfires</a>. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901113002074">Analysis</a> of these deaths has focused on the relationship between where people were killed, weather conditions, proximity to fuel, activities and decision-making leading up to the death. We now know that most deaths occurred under very <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP129645">severe weather conditions</a>. </p>
<p>A number of recommendations came out of the <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF.pdf">Royal Commission</a> into the February 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, including the need for an enhanced warning system. This resulted in a new, “code red” warning level on the bushfire weather severity scale. </p>
<p>For code red days, people in bushfire-prone areas are encouraged to listen to advice from agencies and leave their homes either the day before or early in the morning on the day the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/">weather approaches this level</a>. This has been adopted in many regions across Australia as an accepted strategy. </p>
<p>Bushfires on code red days dominate loss statistics. 70% of house losses and 60% of deaths occurring on days which reach <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Landscape-management/Bushfire/Life-loss-database">this level.</a> Thankfully none of our towns and cities have experienced a code red day this summer.</p>
<p>Mass evacuations will not necessarily always be the easiest or most practical solution for all bushfire circumstances. In Victoria, you can’t forcibly evacuate someone from a property where they have a personal interest in protecting that property. </p>
<p>In Wye River, the evacuation warning worked and people were more inclined to leave than stay and try to protect their homes. The warning work because it was issued well ahead of the fire. The community had previously considered their approach to the threat of bushfire and formed a unified approach to warnings. </p>
<p>In other areas the communities response to warnings may be more diverse. With the introduction of code red warnings, it is likely more people will evacuate following a warning. </p>
<p>What’s concerning is people who do decide to stay with their homes despite an evacuation call may be in more danger than ever before. They could be the only resident left in their street fighting to protect their home, potentially making them more vulnerable.</p>
<p>In the past resident needed to plan for a range of fire weather scenarios and decide at what level of fire weather severity <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962">they would leave</a>. This also includes planning for how to defend their home if for some reason they do not leave or a fire arrives on a less severe day. </p>
<p>Now residents need to also consider the extent to which the rest of their community is likely to leave the area.</p>
<h2>Fire in the future</h2>
<p>At the start of a bushfire season we don’t know if one or more code red days will occur. A code red day can only be reliably predicted in the week leading up to it.</p>
<p>Unfortunately we are likely to see more code red days in the future. </p>
<p>Typically on a code red day there are hundreds of fires in the landscape and firefighters battle to put most or all of them out. It’s an amazing task and they do an excellent job. But obviously there’s a chance that some could grow to a size that becomes impossible to control.</p>
<p>Have we seen the worst fire weather that is technically possible? Nobody knows for sure, but probably not.</p>
<p>Climate change projections indicate that south eastern Australia is likely to become hotter and drier in future.</p>
<p>A 2007 <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/fullreportbushfire.pdf">study</a> examined the potential impacts of climate change on fire-weather at various sites in south east Australia. It found that at all locations the likelihood of code red days occurring will increase. For some sites the change is minor by 2020 but for other sites such as Bourke, Melbourne Airport, and Mildura the frequency will more than double. </p>
<p>As we approach 2050 the news is far worse, with some areas such as Bourke, Melbourne Airport, Mildura, Moree and Wagga increasing in likelihood by more than five times. The study also found that fire seasons will start earlier and end later while being generally more intense throughout their length. This effect will be the most pronounced as we approach 2050 although it is likely to be apparent now.</p>
<p>By 2050 we can expect to see more uncontrollable fires in our landscape under the more severe weather conditions. A lot more of the landscape will be burnt. </p>
<p>In many regions major fires will be frequent enough to constantly remind people of the risks associate with them. With these observations we need to consider new ways of accepting the inevitability of these fires and adapt.</p>
<p>By adaptation I mean a combination of building practices and landscape design that match the fire-prone land we live in. Perhaps one day instead of lamenting the losses from bushfires, we will be able to feel content as the environment recovers around us. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Justin will be on hand for an Author Q&A between 3 and 4pm AEDT on Thursday, January 21, 2016. Post your questions in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Leonard receives funding as a CSIRO research scientist from various government agencies via grants and contracted research via agreements between CSIRO and those agencies. These grants and contracts are reference in the various journal articles and reports that are references in this article.</span></em></p>The Christmas Day fires that struck the Victorian town of Wye River are an example of how to get emergency responses right.Justin Leonard, Team Leader, Bushfire Urban Design, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/530502016-01-14T00:52:09Z2016-01-14T00:52:09ZExpectations and harsh reality: why bushfire warnings fail<p>The recent catastrophic fires at Yarloop in Western Australia and Wye River in Victoria have raised the issue of how authorities communicate emergency warnings. </p>
<p>In Yarloop, where two people died, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4386722.htm">debate has arisen</a> about the use of SMS-based warnings, which reportedly may have arrived after the fire had reached the township. The Western Australian government will investigate the fire. </p>
<p>On Victoria’s Great Ocean Road, towns were successfully evacuated so no people died. However, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/homes-destroyed-in-victorian-bushfires/news-story/61f6208470846479d57de503c564cb96">more than 100 properties</a> were lost. </p>
<p>As we examine the losses to life, property, infrastructure and community from the most recent events, many questions will be asked about how we might have avoided such extensive loss. </p>
<p>The truth is that sometimes, even with the best services, most rapid response and most effective communications and co-ordination, the consequences exceed what we think is acceptable as a community. </p>
<p>One question often canvassed after events such as the recent fires is: “Why didn’t we know how bad it was going to be earlier?” </p>
<p>Despite sophisticated weather monitoring and arrangements for response activation and co-ordination in Australia, it’s not always possible to predict the ferocity, speed or scope of events. Many of the factors that determine these things are outside our control. </p>
<h2>Information overload</h2>
<p>Emergency services agencies provide early warnings to communities to provide the information people need to be able to take action that avoids or reduces their exposure to the hazard. These messages are always provided via multiple channels – SMS, television and radio and social media forums such as Twitter and Facebook.</p>
<p>However, being able to use this information effectively very much depends on an understanding of what the information means for us personally. Terms such as “leave early” and be “well prepared” are <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asi.22952/abstract">not as simple</a> as they might first appear. </p>
<p>Another challenging question often relates to the actions of the individuals affected by the event. When we discuss the perceived effectiveness of emergency communications we need to take several things into account. </p>
<p>The first thing is that under pressure humans don’t always behave in the way we expect. <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22342781">Risk assessment and risk-taking behaviour</a> change when people are stressed. The ability to absorb information and act constructively can become flawed. </p>
<p>For example, research has demonstrated that emotional stress can impact how we make decisions by interfering with how we find information. As a result we may make <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1896/abstract">simpler decisions</a>, ones we wouldn’t consider if we weren’t under pressure. We are also influenced by the behaviour of those around us and by our personal past experience. </p>
<h2>We’re in this together</h2>
<p>Society is now exposed to a great deal more content from many more sources than ever before. In Australia, there are many real-time media feeds contributing information to both the affected and broader community during significant events.</p>
<p>In addition to constant feeds on television and radio, increasingly we have become reliant on electronic messaging and social media such as Twitter and Facebook. While we are typically information-hungry during these events, the volume of information we can access requires us to make several important decisions. </p>
<p>What sources do we trust? How do we determine what is the most up-to-date information? How should be pull all the sources together to inform our decision-making? How well do we understand the messages we do receive?</p>
<p>Humans are also known to experience information fatigue especially during hazardous events. </p>
<p>We must appreciate that emergency warnings can be designed either to inform or to advise or instruct. Messages such as “evacuate now” appear to be fairly clear. </p>
<p>But we are highly likely to have other people, livestock, pets and property to consider and these assets may not be in the same location as we are. Co-ordinating an evacuation under these circumstances is understandably stressful. Recent coverage of the Western Australian fires reveals the awful anxiety associated with not knowing where loved ones are. </p>
<p>Clearly, making sound decisions under threatening circumstances is extremely challenging. </p>
<p>We have to fight fires on all fronts: by preparing the environment (ie burnoffs and fuel reduction), preparing our organisation, preparing ourselves and our homes, and communicating effectively. In Australia, emergency services agencies, working with experts and researchers, are making persistent efforts to improve our collective ability to protect lives and property. </p>
<p>Success in the fight against fires must be a collective responsibility. As individuals and communities we must accept the part we play in risk mitigation and management by concentrating on risk reduction. Understanding the complexity of making the right decision under threat, we need to act early, responsibly and with the best available information.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vivienne Tippett receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC</span></em></p>Why do people still die in bushfires? Recent fires have triggered a debate about emergency warnings.Vivienne Tippett, Professor, Faculty of Health, School - Clinical Sciences, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/504032015-11-10T22:58:35Z2015-11-10T22:58:35ZCrisis communication: saving time and lives in disasters through smarter social media<p>As the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-17/remembering-the-blue-mountains-bushfires-one-year-on/5819100">worst bushfires</a> seen for generations in New South Wales raged across the Blue Mountains, Southern Highlands and the Central Coast two years ago, people urgently needed fast, reliable information – and many turned to their phones to get it. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/">NSW Rural Fire Service</a> was prepared with a smartphone app, <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">Fires Near Me</a>, which was downloaded almost 200,000 times. At the height of the fires, its <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nswrfs/?fref=ts">Facebook page</a> was recording more than a million views an hour.</p>
<p>A social media campaign also helped the NSW Rural Fire Service Facebook community more than double from 120,000 to 280,000, while its Twitter reach jumped from 20,000 to 37,000 followers. Crucially, this helped to alert people to danger areas and places to avoid driving near. </p>
<p>If every emergency in Australia was handled in that way, Australians would be better able to cope with disasters we face, including fires, floods and storms.</p>
<p>But our <a href="http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/crisiscommsreport.pdf">new policy report</a>, released today, shows that there’s still much more to do to consistently match the 2013 response to the NSW fires across the nation.</p>
<p>We found that while Australia is a leader in uses of social media for crisis communication within emergency management organisations, much activity is still relatively <em>ad hoc</em>, rather than being systematically embedded within, or effectively coordinated across, agencies. </p>
<p>Australia also lacks frameworks to enable agencies in one place to learn from the experiences in other parts of the country. That might not sound important – but in times of acute crisis, such disconnects between emergency agencies can cost lives. </p>
<p>Based on a three-year study on how improve social media for crisis communication, our <a href="http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/crisiscommsreport.pdf">Support Frameworks for the Use of Social Media by Emergency Management Organisations</a> report makes four key recommendations for Australia, to:</p>
<ul>
<li>Develop a national framework for best practices for social media use in crises</li>
<li>Create a national network of Australian emergency management organisations’ social media practitioners</li>
<li>Improve coordination of federal, state and local government agencies</li>
<li>Develop a federal government social media task force. </li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"393569555219755008"}"></div></p>
<h2>Disaster-ready social media</h2>
<p>The NSW Rural Fire Service is just one of a growing number of emergency management organisations around the world using social media to provide emergency warnings, promote community meetings, and use photographs shared by the public on social media to identify and act on crisis hot-spots. </p>
<p>Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter have played a crucial role in many other recent disasters, including the Christchurch earthquakes, <a href="http://www.cci.edu.au/floodsreport.pdf">the 2011 Queensland floods</a>, <a href="http://www.journalism.org/2012/11/06/hurricane-sandy-and-twitter/">Hurricane Sandy in the US</a>, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the <a href="http://social-media-for-development.org/nepal-earthquake-how-social-media-has-been-used-in-the-aftermath/">2015 Nepalese earthquake</a>. </p>
<p>Individuals, community groups and emergency management organisations have all recognised the value of sharing information and advice about rapidly unfolding disasters. Content mined from social media platforms is now being <a href="http://www.digital-humanitarians.com/">incorporated into the overall event picture</a> by emergency management organisations.</p>
<p>But Australian authorities could do better, as our report shows. </p>
<p>Institutional support for the use of social media by emergency management organisations in Australia is still variable, and often depends on the personal enthusiasm of leaders within those organisations. That’s why we need to instead establish a national framework for the use of social media in crisis communication, so that everyone learns from those leading the way, such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-21/qps-media-win-the-social-media-game-back-to-the-future/6872090">Queensland Police Service</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Twitter users can activate emergency alerts from the Queensland Police Service and others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/QPSmedia/alerts">https://twitter.com/QPSmedia/alerts</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is also an urgent need for better knowledge sharing across the many local, state, and federal organisations involved with crisis communication. So we recommend the creation of a national network of social media units within emergency management organisations, which could also oversee the development of accredited professional training options.</p>
<p>The rich experience that exists within the network could then be pooled and documented in a national resource centre. We recommend the establishment of a central coordinating office to operate the network, placed at the <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/">COAG</a> level, within the already established <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/EmergencyManagement/About-us-emergency-management/Pages/Committees-and-councils.aspx">Australia-New Zealand Emergency Management Committee</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Find out more about the best way to stay up to day on warnings and forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/">http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lessons learnt from the increasing use of social media as a key channel for crisis communication are valuable for many other forms of government communication. </p>
<p>Our report also recommends the establishment of a federal government Social Media Task Force, to explore, encourage, and develop more innovative approaches to using social media across all relevant government functions.</p>
<p>Promotion of other social media services, such as the Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/">BOM alerts</a>, would boost the community’s capacity to respond to extreme weather warnings, helping save lives and better protecting homes, businesses and belongings. </p>
<h2>Working with the public on social media</h2>
<p>Worldwide, emergency organisations’ use of social media in crisis situations is still at a relatively early stage. In that time, important advances have been made in Australia. But there is considerable scope to do even better in future.</p>
<p>As the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s director Craig Fugate has observed, successful emergency management requires working with the public as part of a team. Reflecting on the lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, <a href="http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/10/25/written-testimony-fema-house-homeland-security-subcommittee-emergency-preparedness">Fugate said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>if you wait until you know how bad something is to begin a response, you have lost time.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>After the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/october-blew-away-heat-records-for-any-month-of-any-year-bureau-of-meteorology-20151102-gkoo51.html">hottest October on record</a> in many parts of Australia, and with an El Niño event now occurring in the Pacific Rim, it is likely that we will once again see a summer of bushfires, storms, floods and cyclones.</p>
<p>Social media is not a panacea; other ways of <a href="http://www.ag.gov.au/Publications/Documents/AustraliasEmergencyWarningArrangements/Australias-Emergency-Warning-Arrangements.pdf">sharing emergency warnings</a> including radio broadcasts are still crucial. </p>
<p>But social media has become another essential way for authorities to share and discover potentially life-saving information in a disaster. If emergency organisations work together more effectively, and are better engaged with their local communities through social media before, during and after a crisis, it could prove the difference in times when every second counts.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Terry will be online for a Twitter Q&A between 4 and 5pm AEDT on Wednesday, November 11, 2015. Head over to <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ConversationEDU">Twitter</a> and join in using #AskAnExpert.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Flew receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>When disaster strikes, more people than ever are turning to social media to find out if they’re in danger. But Australian emergency services need to work together more to learn what works to save lives.Terry Flew, Professor of Media and Communications, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/463902015-08-26T00:39:31Z2015-08-26T00:39:31ZAs Papua New Guinea faces worsening drought, a past disaster could save lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92883/original/image-20150825-17755-15dc5a2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children from a village in Papua New Guinea's Western Highlands Province stand in one of countless sweet potato gardens destroyed by frost across the country, August 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kud Sitango</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For more than one million people across rural Papua New Guinea, <a href="http://www.academia.edu/7558495/Allen_B._J._and_R._M._Bourke_2009._The_1997-98_drought_in_Papua_New_Guinea_failure_of_policy_or_triumph_of_the_citizenry_Policy_Making_and_Implementation._Studies_from_Papua_New_Guinea._R._J._May._Canberra_ANU_E_Press_The_Australian_National_University_325-343">1997</a> was a year that will never be forgotten. Drought and frost caused hundreds of deaths: in some very remote communities, the death rate climbed to <a href="http://aciar.gov.au/files/node/306/0003pr99chapter3.pdf">seven in 100 people</a>. Crops failed; schools, jails and major mines were forced to close as water supplies ran dry; and there were outbreaks of diseases including diarrhoea, malaria and typhoid.</p>
<p>On Monday, PNG’s Prime Minister <a href="http://www.pm.gov.pg/index.php/news-centre/354-brace-for-severe-drought-governments-of-all-levels-businesses-and-communities-must-work-together">Peter O’Neill warned</a> that this year and 2016 could be <a href="http://www.thenational.com.pg/?q=node/93337">even worse</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman with the last remaining well with some water on an island in Milne Bay Province, 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The official estimate is that more than 1.8 million people across PNG are currently affected by the extended drought and frosts of 2015, which the <a href="http://www.pm.gov.pg/index.php/news-centre/354-brace-for-severe-drought-governments-of-all-levels-businesses-and-communities-must-work-together">prime minister’s update</a> said have been “made worse due to the effects of climate change”. Of those, 1.3 million people have been classified as being at the highest risk from drought.</p>
<p>I saw firsthand how bad things got in PNG during that last drought, and I share the PNG government’s concerns – especially because the 2015 drought and frosts started earlier than in 1997, and the impact is already greater than it was at this time in 1997.</p>
<p>If the same proportion of PNG are affected this year as in 1997, then about 2.5 million people could suffer severe food shortages.</p>
<p>I’m flying to Port Moresby this week to help some government and church agencies assess the situation and to share lessons from the past. As PNG’s disaster response ramps up, my hope is that the still vivid memories of 1997 could avert an even bigger crisis in the months ahead.</p>
<h2>People on the move as crops fail, water runs dry</h2>
<p>The situation in PNG is developing rapidly and every day more reports come in from field workers or the PNG media. Here’s what we know so far.</p>
<p>As of late August 2015, frost has destroyed crops of the staple foods, sweet potato and potato, at many high-altitude locations (above 2200 metres altitude). Tens of thousands of people are reported to be leaving their villages and migrating to lower altitudes to find food.</p>
<p>One of the hardest-hit areas has been Enga province, where frost damage has destroyed many crops and water is scarce. As of a week ago, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/frost-drought-wipes-out-subsistence-crops-in-png-solomon-islands/6707964">at least 300,000 people</a> in that province were reported to have been affected.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children in Morobe Province and other parts of PNG now need to carry water from elsewhere in these bamboo pipes to their school, August 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Care International</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The prime minister’s August 24 update confirmed that schools are being told to reduce operating hours or temporarily close. That follows reports on August 20 from Enga that 15,000 students in 11 different schools had asked for classes to be suspended because of an acute shortage of drinking water. That number could grow to more than 100,000 students in Enga alone within the next fortnight. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, the major hospital at Tari in Hela Province is reported to have run out of drinking water. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of people rely on this local creek for drinking, but by mid-August 2015 it had already been reduced to this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/882795711755821/photos/pb.882795711755821.-2207520000.1440484722./883949898307069/?type=1&theater">Bata Mumbe/SIMBU El-Nino Relief Appeal/Facebook</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the nearby Southern Highlands Province, Governor William Powi <a href="http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2015/August/08-19-13.htm">declared a state of emergency</a> a week ago, as severe frost and drought have destroyed food gardens and reduced water supplies.</p>
<p>It is claimed that more than 500,000 people in that province are affected, with schools closed down as families struggle to survive. Hospitals, homes and business have little or no water for drinking or washing, with many businesses closed.</p>
<p>Similar, but less dramatic reports are coming in from other provinces in the highlands and several lowland provinces. Prices of sweet potato, green vegetables and other foods are reported to be increasing in some markets; water is scarce or unavailable in some smaller towns and government stations; and wild fires have destroyed houses and crops in at least four provinces.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rvtUHzB4978?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An August 21, 2015, news report on falling water levels at a dam that supplies power to a third of PNG.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predicting the future from the recent past</h2>
<p>The striking thing about the reported situation in late August 2015 compared with the last major drought in PNG in 1997 is that problems are appearing earlier this time.</p>
<p>Repeated frost had impacted people at high-attitude locations by August 1997 and many locations were very dry. But the situation was nowhere as serious nor did it deteriorate as rapidly as appears to be occurring in 2015. Meteorologists’ forecasts of a major <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-12/el-nino-officially-declared-drier-hotter-conditions-predicted/6463966">El Nino event in 2015-16</a> appear to be borne out.</p>
<p>Given the experience of the big drought in 1997, and smaller ones in earlier decades (1972 and 1982), what can we expect in coming months?</p>
<p>While predicting the future is fraught, some or all of the following is likely.</p>
<p>There is likely to be a sharp increase in incidence of certain diseases, including diarrhoea, dysentery, malaria, typhoid, skin diseases and respiratory ailments.</p>
<p>Many people will be forced to move from high-altitude locations (above 2200 metres) because of destruction of food crops by frost.</p>
<p>Large populations at lower altitude in the seven highland provinces will be impacted as the drought destroys sweet potato and other food crops. Many people will use their cash reserves or will sell assets, including pig meat, to purchase imported foods.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even cassava produced only tiny tubers in the 1997 drought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some people on small islands and atolls in maritime provinces, including Milne Bay, Madang, Morobe, West New Britain, Manus and Bougainville, will suffer food shortages and some will be short of good quality drinking water.</p>
<p>The life of many women and girls will become even more difficult as they are forced to walk further to obtain drinking water. </p>
<p>Most people will be able to survive on foods that are not usually eaten in great quantity or are rarely eaten, including green papaya, tiny crabs, coconuts, ferns, fruit of “fig” trees, self-sown yams, the basal parts of banana plants and over-mature cassava tubers in abandoned food gardens.</p>
<p>In the lowlands, the impact is likely to be greatest for those living on small islands and atolls, especially those on remote islands where it is not possible to sell marine foods to those living in urban centres so as to gain cash which can be used to purchase imported rice.</p>
<p>The most vulnerable people are those in remote locations who have very limited cash income, limited or no access to urban markets, limited political influence and generally can only be accessed by air or foot. It was in some such communities that the death rate increased in the 1997 drought.</p>
<p>Many urban people will be impacted by lack of water. By late last week, Port Moresby residents had already been asked to conserve water. Many urban people will also be likely to divert their income to send cash or imported food to their village-based family.</p>
<h2>How we can avert a bigger crisis</h2>
<p>There are some reasons for optimism today, despite the rapidly worsening situation. </p>
<p>Most adult villagers and others in PNG remember what happened in 1997, unlike a generation ago, when very few people had any memory of the last really big drought and food shortages in 1941.</p>
<p>And the lessons learnt in prior droughts can be applied to reduce the impact on villagers’ lives and minimise the death rate. The PNG government has recently allocated <a href="http://www.pngmirror.com/prolonged-drought-presents-challenge-for-government/">K5 million</a> to commence disaster relief assistance.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An RAAF Caribou aircraft used for assessing impacts of PNG’s drought in 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The PNG government and other organisations in PNG need to be prepared for what could be a very major disruption to the lives of a high proportion of the population. Development partners, particularly Australia, should also be ready to provide assistance if asked, as they were in 1997.</p>
<p>The challenge ahead for everyone – communities across PNG, the PNG government, development partners including Australia, non-government and faith-based organisations – is to ensure 2015 is not remembered in the same way as 1997.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Mike Bourke receives funding from the Australian Government for research and development on Papua New Guinea agriculture and related issues.</span></em></p>Papua New Guinea is now facing a drought and frosts that look set to be worse than 1997, when hundreds of people died. So how can memories of 1997 save lives over the next few months?Richard Michael Bourke, Visiting Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/401412015-06-04T05:53:24Z2015-06-04T05:53:24ZShould I stay or should I go: timing affects hurricane evacuation decisions<p><em>This article is part of The Conversation’s 2015 series on hurricanes. You can read the rest of the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/hurricanes-2015">here</a>.</em></p>
<p>In the US, the 2015 hurricane season begins against a backdrop of other recent extreme weather news. Texas floods and Midwest tornadoes remind us of what water and wind can do. We can take comfort from considerable improvement in hurricane forecast accuracy in recent years. But when a hurricane is gathering strength offshore, people in its possible line of fire still need to decide whether or not to evacuate to safer ground.</p>
<p>As a social scientist, I’ve been interested in what goes into the choice whether to stay or to go, and whether people will have time to leave if that’s what they choose to do. It’s a complex decision that can be a matter of life and death. Why do some people evacuate and some do not? We’re finding that timing can have a lot to do with it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83883/original/image-20150604-2929-u9qsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A hurricane’s storm surge can be deadly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/au_tiger01/110282480">au_tiger01</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Getting out of a storm’s path saves lives</h2>
<p>Consider the comparison of lives lost due to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf">Forty-one people drowned</a> from Sandy’s <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/">storm surge</a> and 31 others died from falling trees and other causes. Katrina killed more than <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">1,800 people</a>. Over half of the Mississippi evacuation zone residents <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2312-10">heeded the call</a> and left ahead of Katrina. That compares with about 30% for Sandy, according to my own survey research.</p>
<p>Comparing populations between coastal Mississippi and New Jersey/New York, a storm like Katrina could have translated to many thousands of deaths if it had hit the New York metropolitan area.</p>
<p>It wasn’t evacuation that made a difference in the number of lives saved. The sobering conclusion is that it was just luck that Sandy, hitting a much more populous area, had weaker winds blowing over people trying to evacuate the day the storm arrived. But the next storm through could have much more intense winds. That potential scenario makes it crucial to examine why there was such a low evacuation rate for Sandy – and how to make sure a future situation would have a higher one. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83869/original/image-20150603-2935-57xrr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of a storm surge inundation map for a hypothetical hurricane hitting Charleston, SC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/inundation/">NOAA National Hurricane Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What goes into the decision to leave</h2>
<p>Most <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2007)8:3(69)">behavioral studies</a> show hurricane evacuation rates can be explained by a number of factors, including media communication of forecast risk, physical risk at a person’s location, demographics (for instance, people with young children are more likely to evacuate, while the elderly often find it harder to do so), and availability of transportation resources, as well as a place to go. </p>
<p>However these factors never explain more than half the variance in evacuation. The rest is the hard part, what psychologist Paul Slovic calls “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507">intuitive risk judgments</a>.” Certainly there are some people who believe they’ll be safe no matter what. But most people routinely do a good job of deciding to do things like buying insurance against big dangers that are not very likely to happen.</p>
<p>The problem for the public in hurricane evacuation is not the probability part; it’s the danger part, whether storm surge could actually happen to <em>me</em> and result in <em>my</em> death or loss of livelihood. It’s vital that everyone, politicians as well as the public, is educated about how <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/StormSurgeCanBeDeadly10tips-single.pdf">storm surge works and the risks</a> affiliated with it. When people aren’t sure but get scared they will go ahead and evacuate, even when the result is unnecessary traffic gridlock, as happened in hurricanes Floyd and Rita. </p>
<p>So the problem for forecasters, media and authorities is threefold: make sure the people at risk know they are, make sure people who can safely stay home know that, and get those two groups of people informed far enough ahead of time that they can know what to do when evacuation orders come down. To accomplish these goals, precise locational information on surge risk is needed – such as will be provided by the new <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/inundation/">Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map</a> developed by the National Hurricane Center.</p>
<p>This kind of map can be made available up to 36 hours ahead of hurricane landfall once surge modelers know what the characteristics of the storm will be as it approaches land. Before that, an accurate forecast is not possible because location and height of storm surge is heavily dependent on the hurricane’s track, size and strength, as well as the configuration of near-shore bays and other water bodies, and underwater terrain where it hits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83870/original/image-20150603-2966-bozvsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Ivan demonstrated how whether a storm hits during the daylight hours affects how effective evacuation is.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hugh Gladwin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>People need time</h2>
<p>Few studies have looked at what happens next, once people realize they need to evacuate. Timing appears to be a crucial factor. </p>
<p>Studies indicate that authorities need to allow a full 24 hours after definitive evacuation orders for people to get ready and <a href="http://www.safetylit.org/citations/index.php?fuseaction=citations.viewdetails&citationIds%5B%5D=citjournalarticle_55911_29">actually leave</a>. Preparing to go, coordinating work and family members, and organizing <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.02.015">transportation</a> can take a full day. And after that, evacuees may need 10 hours of daylight to travel before hurricane force winds arrive.</p>
<p><a href="http://coast.noaa.gov/hes/hes.html">Hurricane Evacuation Studies</a> are done by the US Army Corps of Engineers. These incorporate behavioral studies and traffic modeling to predict clearance times to get everyone out of evacuation zones, assuming good compliance with evacuation orders. Clearance times for the Miami area, for instance, run 20 to 30 hours, depending on the size of storm forecast. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83865/original/image-20150603-2935-12x6qug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart of when people in NJ and NY evacuated ahead of Hurricane Sandy making landfall on Monday evening.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hugh Gladwin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As noted above, this 24+10 hour time frame is approximately how far out hurricane forecasters can <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-forecast-accuracy-is-improving-but-dont-overly-focus-on-the-skinny-black-line-40794">accurately predict</a> where storm surge impact is likely to be. So in this case the limits of our forecasting technology fit with the limits of human preparation. The trouble comes in if the 10-hour period for travel turns out to be at night. Postponing departure until morning, which is human nature, means evacuating and traveling through tropical storm force or higher winds. Hurricanes Ivan and Sandy both fit this scenario, with people evacuating through tropical storm force winds. Hurricanes Katrina and Andrew did not, because their time frames were 12 hours different, allowing people to travel during daylight before the storms arrived in the early hours of the morning.</p>
<p>The time potentially needed for evacuation thus makes it essential that the public knows what the worst case for <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/">storm surge</a> could be for them and is alerted to the need to plan for a possible evacuation order. The National Hurricane Center has maps of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/products.php">worst-case storm surge scenarios</a> for any configuration of possible hurricanes along the US coastline. Emergency managers use these routinely, but media and authorities need to communicate to the public where people must be alert to risk and also where people can know they will not have to evacuate in any hurricane scenario.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83874/original/image-20150603-2943-5k3yn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Let’s hit the road.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/23122254@N07/7162813132">Billy Metcalf Photography</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we need to hear, and when</h2>
<p>Emergency managers are charged with ensuring the safety of the population. “Prepare for the worst” is probably a good philosophy in most circumstances, but not in the case of evacuation for a hurricane many days away, when the cost of mobilizing is high and the probability of it being needed is very low. The government and media also grapple with not wanting to be unnecessarily alarmist. The correct philosophy is “know what the worst case could be and be prepared to face it if it comes to pass.” </p>
<p>When an evacuation order is issued, it’s usually in a very compressed time frame – but that’s ok as long as people are prepared. If people plan three to five days ahead, knowing that there is a small but real chance they will be asked to evacuate and a small but real chance of death if they do not, they can be ready when the definitive order comes in.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Gladwin consults for SocResearch Miami on hurricane behavior studies. He has applied for and received National Science Foundation grants to study disasters.</span></em></p>Hurricanes can be deadly to those in their path. Officials don’t want to unnecessarily alarm before solid forecasts are in place, but residents need enough time to prepare and heed evacuation orders.Hugh Gladwin, Associate Professor of Global and Sociocultural Studies, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.