tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/eskom-17741/articlesEskom – The Conversation2024-02-18T07:06:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217792024-02-18T07:06:55Z2024-02-18T07:06:55ZCorruption and clean energy in South Africa: economic model shows trust in government is linked to takeup of renewables<p>South Africa <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/south-africa-energy#:%7E:text=Current%20Status%3A,from%20renewables%20will%20grow%20rapidly.">relies heavily</a> on energy from coal-fired power stations, which emit large quantities of carbon. But making the transition to greater use of renewable energies, such as solar, is being hampered by a number of factors. Chief among them is corruption, which is affecting the quality of institutions.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15567249.2023.2291433">a recent paper</a> I set out how perceptions of corruption in the country’s institutions have had a huge impact on the country’s transition to clean energy. This is particularly true of institutions involved in energy, such as the state power utility Eskom.</p>
<p>My findings were based on an econometric model we developed, based on economic theory. It highlighted how perceptions of corruption and the effectiveness of government institutions influenced attitudes towards the country’s energy transition efforts. </p>
<p>Econometrics combines statistics, mathematical models and economic theories to understand and model economic problems. It uncovers the relationships and effects of various economic elements. </p>
<p>The model showed that greater trust in institutions would make people, policymakers and businesses more inclined to adopt renewable energy practices. </p>
<p>The study also found that the quality of the regulatory framework and government’s effectiveness shaped people’s views. This in turn affected decisions around adding renewable energy to the supply mix.</p>
<p>These findings matter because South Africa’s energy transition faces <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-south-africa-pioneered-plans-to-transition-to-renewable-energy-what-went-wrong-218851">a host of challenges</a>. These range from technical and financial challenges to broader political, socioeconomic and institutional hurdles. The key to a successful energy transition is policy that’s aligned with what the environment and the society need. It’s essential to improve institutional quality, put anti-corruption procedures in place and have clear rules. </p>
<h2>Energy mix and vision</h2>
<p>The energy situation in South Africa has changed significantly <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?time=earliest..2022&country=%7EZAF">since the mid-1990s</a>. Then, coal made up 73%-76% of the primary energy mix. Oil made up 21%-22%.</p>
<p>By 2022, coal’s share had fallen to almost 69%. The share of renewable energy sources had increased to roughly 2.3%. </p>
<p>Our study supports <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306145?casa_token=DpHWzhI7uCUAAAAA:leZ-aq2qmkX6h2AJbtSY5QN-0p9nlTC59L7gMJJgNRHUoJb1qEqY3bvKWt_83rXQhJ_PPe-BwQ">others</a> which show that 2008 was a turning point for the South African economy, particularly the energy sector. The factors involved included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the global financial crisis</p></li>
<li><p>changes in government policies, such as <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar092509a">monetary policies</a> </p></li>
<li><p>leadership changes in the country and at Eskom</p></li>
<li><p>power cuts and rising electricity prices </p></li>
<li><p>a downturn in the economy. </p></li>
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<h2>Institutions and economic implications</h2>
<p>This research was designed to understand the impact of national policies, governmental efficiency and past dependency on fossil fuel. I based the models on historical data about the energy mix and governance scores.</p>
<p>The analysis focused on the share of renewable energy in South Africa’s total final energy consumption. I used this as a proxy for the nation’s shift to cleaner energy. </p>
<p>Institutional quality is a complex concept. In our modelling exercise we therefore used three of the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">World Governance Indicators</a> to stand for institutional quality: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>corruption perception index </p></li>
<li><p>regulatory quality – perceptions of government’s ability to make regulations that support private sector development </p></li>
<li><p>government effectiveness – perceptions of the quality and trustworthiness of public services. </p></li>
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<p>The first model confirmed a positive relationship between perceptions of corruption-free institutions and the rollout of renewable energy. More renewable energy has been produced when governance scores have been highest.</p>
<p>The second model showed that transparent and effective regulation potentially hindered the adoption of cleaner alternatives. This can be explained by the fact that regulatory decisions have mostly supported the country’s energy dependence on fossil fuels. The energy markets, especially those for electricity, are doing better because of more sensible, open, and high-quality rules. As a result, this reduced the desire to switch to more environmentally friendly, renewable options.</p>
<p>Finally, the third model indicated a negative relationship between higher government effectiveness and the share of renewable energy. Close ties between stable governments and the conventional energy sector are common. This can influence policy choices. If these well-established businesses oppose reforms that jeopardise their interests – much like the fossil fuel sector does – the promotion of renewable energy sources may suffer. </p>
<p>I also saw that there had been a slow rate of change in renewable energy share. That can be attributed to slow procurement processes, coupled with potential lobbying and corruptive practices. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>South Africa has a new <a href="https://www.dmr.gov.za/Portals/0/Resources/Documents%20for%20Public%20Comments/IRP%202023%20%5BINTEGRATED%20RESOURCE%20PLAN%5D/Publication%20for%20comments%20Integrated%20Resource%20Plan%202023.pdf?ver=2024-01-05-134833-383">Integrated Resource Plan 2023</a> which proposes a near-term (2023-2030) plan that combines gas, solar, wind and battery storage. </p>
<p>But to boost the adoption of cleaner energy, South Africa needs to take urgent action to fight corruption and improve confidence in the country’s institutions. </p>
<p>Policymakers should focus first on making regulatory changes. Efficient procurement procedures and honest practices would speed up the shift to renewables. What’s needed are streamlined procurement, greater transparency and more competition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roula Inglesi-Lotz receives funding from the National Research Foundation (NRF).</span></em></p>The key to a successful energy transition away from coal is good institutional quality supported by anti-corruption procedures and clear rules.Roula Inglesi-Lotz, Professor of Economics, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208542024-02-01T14:24:32Z2024-02-01T14:24:32ZSouth Africans are opting to go off-grid: how they’re being helped, and hindered, in their efforts<p>Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned power utility, struggles to generate and supply a stable flow of electricity to meet demand. In 2023, there were times when households and businesses had no power for <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/18/energy/ramaphosa-davos-south-africa-blackouts/index.html">up to 11 hours a day</a>. Eskom has warned that load shedding will be <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/520867-south-africa-just-had-its-worst-year-of-load-shedding-eskom-warns-to-expect-even-worse-in-2024.html#:%7E:text=The%20outlook%20between%201%20January,for%20the%20whole%20of%202024.">worse</a> in 2024.</p>
<p>The result is that many <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/477215-goodbye-eskom-power-cuts-forcing-south-africans-to-build-private-solar.html#:%7E:text=Factories%2C%20mines%2C%20farms%2C%20businesses,with%20in%2Dhouse%20power%20generation.">South Africans are choosing to end or reduce their dependence on the national electricity grid</a>. The approaches people are taking are still <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924#:%7E:text=The%20result%20is%20that%20South,all%20their%20electricity%20in%2Dhouse.">evolving</a>. Some are choosing to cut off their reliance on local government, which is responsible for local electricity distribution and reticulation. Others are opting to add solar and battery power while retaining municipal power for backup.</p>
<p>The move away from reliance on the grid points to a pressing need for clarity and support in the legal and regulatory environment. The shift raises complex legal and regulatory challenges, which we dealt with in a recent <a href="https://perjournal.co.za/article/view/15637">paper</a>. </p>
<p>We examined whether South Africa’s law allows individual households to generate their own power and disconnect their properties from the grid. And, if so, whether the regulatory framework is tailored to enable and empower them to do so.</p>
<p>Our paper also sought to address whether off-grid technological advances can coexist with – or are hindered by – existing regulations. </p>
<p>We found that there’s no national legislation that deals with delinking from the national grid. Instead, local ordinances and zoning regulations indirectly accommodate and facilitate the off-grid transition.</p>
<p>In South Africa, local government – municipalities – play an important role in delivering basic services, including electricity. The financial stability of these municipalities hinges, in large part, on the revenue they generate from selling electricity to consumers. Without it, most would collapse. </p>
<p>This means that while transitioning to off-grid solutions may be beneficial to individuals who can afford it, completely abandoning reliance on the grid would be disastrous for broader society. It would hobble the ability of municipalities to provide other basic services such as water and refuse removal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/same-old-funding-model-cant-keep-south-african-cities-going-or-serve-residents-165182">Same old funding model can't keep South African cities going or serve residents</a>
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<p>We also found that homeowners face uncertainty about the legal and financial implications of moving off-grid. This includes questions about their obligations to pay municipal charges for services they no longer use.</p>
<p>Our research is essential for understanding and potentially reshaping the legal landscape to better accommodate and encourage off-grid electricity solutions in South Africa.</p>
<h2>Changing landscape</h2>
<p>The shift towards solar energy in South Africa has seen <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/07/28/2023/why-solar-power-is-booming-in-south-africa">a remarkable surge</a>. This reflects a growing trend among companies and citizens to seek alternative energy solutions. </p>
<p>Many factories, mines, farms, businesses, and individuals are now <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">actively reducing their dependence on power utility Eskom’s network</a> by integrating solar energy. This trend is driven by the desire to lower electricity bills as well as the need for a reliable backup during power outages. </p>
<p>At present, those who have invested in in-house solar capacity often maintain their connection to the main grid to cover periods when solar power is insufficient or unavailable.</p>
<p>South African energy expert Anton Eberhard, using data from Eskom, has <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/weekly-data-south-africas-unprecedented-rooftop-solar-boom/">highlighted this significant transition</a>. According to his analysis, the installed capacity of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in South Africa has <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/709246/new-solar-record-for-south-africa/">more than quadrupled</a> from March 2022 and June 2023. </p>
<p>Rooftop solar energy is a popular alternative because the country has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-southern-africas-interior-is-an-ideal-place-to-generate-solar-energy-161030">high sunlight levels</a>. It enjoys an average of <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/minister-gwede-mantsashe-solar-power-africa-2022-conference-cticc-17-feb-2022">2,500 hours of sunshine</a> every year. </p>
<h2>The role of local government</h2>
<p>Legislation mandates Eskom to generate electricity and sell it in bulk to municipalities. They then reticulate it to consumers. This means that local government is a significant stakeholder in the transition of consumers to off-grid power.</p>
<p>Municipalities have the mandate to provide basic services, including electricity. Yet they stand to lose an important revenue source if more of their customers reduce electricity usage or delink from the grid.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">Power cuts in South Africa: trend to get off the grid is gathering pace, but total independence is still a way off</a>
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<p>That’s why municipalities should revise their by-laws to create regulatory mechanisms for managing such a transition. By implementing by-laws that regulate electricity generation by consumers and their ability to feed into the grid, local governments can create an enabling environment for those who want to go off grid.</p>
<p>The consent of municipalities is essential for those looking to adopt off-grid solutions. Various municipalities have, over the past three years, introduced regulations and by-laws that typically require compliance with safety and quality guidelines. These by-laws also ensure that off-grid installations, like solar panels, are safe and effective.</p>
<p>In addition, municipalities require adherence to specific by-laws for consumers opting for a dual system: wanting to maintain connection to the grid while also installing small scale embedded generation systems, such as solar panels. Registration of these systems is often mandated for legal compliance and safety. </p>
<p>This makes municipalities regulatory bodies as well as enablers in the shift towards sustainable and self-sufficient electricity generation. By setting these regulatory frameworks, they provide a structured path for consumers to pursue off-grid solutions. In turn, this aligns with the broader national goals of energy security and sustainability. </p>
<p>Many municipalities also understand the need to create an enabling environment for households to generate their own power and sell their excess electricity to the national grid. </p>
<p>For example, in January 2023, the City of Cape Town <a href="https://www.itweb.co.za/content/WnxpE74YdKKMV8XL">announced incentives</a> for consumers who sell their surplus green energy to the national grid. These households can get credits against their other municipal accounts. </p>
<p>But we found that there wasn’t consistency in approach. There are still many municipalities that don’t see their role as enabling households to make the shift to cleaner energy choices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Germarié Viljoen is part of the research project 'Water-Energy-Food communities in South Africa: multi-actor nexus governance for social justice?' and therefore supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa and the Dutch Research Council (De Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). Project UID 129352.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felix Dube does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A growing number of people are opting to generate their own renewable energy and escape load shedding.Germarié Viljoen, Associate Professor of Law at the Faculty of Law, North-West UniversityFelix Dube, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Public Law, Faculty of Law, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166502023-11-09T14:10:05Z2023-11-09T14:10:05ZTourists are returning to South Africa – but the sector will need to go green to deal with the country’s electricity crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557698/original/file-20231106-28-68rqbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If South Africa wants to keep its tourism wheels turning, reliable, renewable energy is key.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Xinhua News Agency</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the past 16 years South Africans have dreaded rolling power cuts euphemistically dubbed “loadshedding”. These are caused by the ailing state power entity Eskom’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64594499">crumbling infrastructure</a> and its over-reliance on ageing and poorly maintained <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/sites/default/files/Documents/Statistics%20of%20power%20in%20SA%202022-CSIR-%5BFINAL%5D.pdf">coal-fired power stations</a>. Loadshedding has worsened in 2023, with some areas experiencing power cuts for <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-will-continue-until-2025-and-blackouts-will-take-5-years-to-phase-out-206343">up to 10 hours a day</a>.</p>
<p>This crisis affects every aspect of the country’s economy, including its vibrant tourism sector. Tourism is a vital contributor to the South African economy. In 2019 the country welcomed <a href="https://live.southafrica.net/media/299000/south-african-tourism-annual-report-2020-21.pdf#page=14">over 10 million foreign visitors</a>. The sector contributed <a href="https://wttc.org/news-article/south-africas-travel-and-tourisms-growth-to-outpace-the-national-economy-for-the-next-10-years#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20the%20South%20African,represented%20a%20staggering%2055.6%25%20loss.">up to 6.4%</a> of the gross domestic product along with <a href="https://live.southafrica.net/media/299000/south-african-tourism-annual-report-2020-21.pdf#page=16">1.5 million jobs</a> (9.3% of total jobs). </p>
<p>These figures have contracted significantly because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Visitors <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=16327#:%7E:text=The%20volume%20of%20tourist%20arrivals%20increased%20by%20152%2C6%25%20from,pre%2Dpandemic%20year%20of%202019">are returning</a>. But the financial recovery and viability of the sector, which is composed mainly of small businesses, continues to be hampered by the electricity crisis. </p>
<p>If tourism businesses are to literally and figuratively keep the lights on they must transition towards renewable electricity generation. There are three reasons for this. First, providing consistent electricity to their guests is essential for any tourism business. Second, renewable energy is less damaging to the environment than coal-based generation and its greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, customers are increasingly aware of environmental concerns. Many <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261517715300443">demand more sustainable tourism products</a> and adjust their travel choices accordingly.</p>
<p>We are a team of interdisciplinary researchers with interests in tourism, sustainability and the environment who recently collaborated on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616688.2023.2274836">a research paper</a> that studied South Africa’s potential to break away from old forms of energy generation towards low carbon electricity generation. There are already some positive moves in this direction. But much more remains to be done. This will require the tourism industry and other economic sectors to step up. </p>
<h2>What’s already being done</h2>
<p>Some work is already being done to enhance the tourism sector’s environmental sustainability. The government’s <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/AboutNDT/Publications/Tourism%20Environmental%20Implementation%20Plan.pdf">Tourism Environmental Implementation Plan</a>, published in 2021, facilitates greater participation by tourism establishments in renewable electricity generation and saving. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-will-continue-until-2025-and-blackouts-will-take-5-years-to-phase-out-206343">South Africa's power crisis will continue until 2025 - and blackouts will take 5 years to phase out</a>
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<p>One initiative included in the plan is the tourism department’s Green Tourism Incentive Programme. It supports small tourism businesses by providing free energy and water audits. These can lead to improved efficiencies and the introduction of subsidised renewable energy systems. So far, 111 renewable energy projects have <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/CurrentProjects/Green_Tourism_Incentive_Programme/pages/Green_tourism_incentive_programme.aspx">been funded</a>. The Green Tourism Incentive Programme pays approximately two-thirds of investments. Individual businesses finance the remaining third.</p>
<p>In the private sector, the City Lodge hotel group shows what can be achieved by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ-fe1Hvo0o">installing renewable energy systems</a>. In 2020, solar panels generated <a href="https://www.city-reports.co.za/reports/integrated-report-2022/pdf/full-iar.pdf#page=85">just over 10%</a> of the electricity requirements of the group’s 59 hotels. </p>
<p>Nature-based tourism is one of the mainstays of South African tourism products. South African National Parks, the body that manages national parks, has installed solar PV panels at 19 of its 21 parks. It is also <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/sanparks-on-its-way-to-net-zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-reducing-carbon-footprint-6f7e13ff-8ba1-4908-9b74-440a0d3c1cf7">putting in place other low-carbon strategies as well as climate adaptation plans</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-beaches-are-changing-because-of-climate-change-green-thinking-is-needed-to-save-them-211953">World's beaches are changing because of climate change - green thinking is needed to save them</a>
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<h2>Getting it done</h2>
<p>While these examples are encouraging, they remain limited in size and scope. Most innovation in South Africa towards sustainable energy generation has been self-funded as a business survival strategy to deal with the consequences of power cuts. The shift to renewable electricity, along with its greenhouse gas and air pollution benefits, is a happy coincidence. </p>
<p>A broader transition, helped by access to finance on terms that can smooth its way, is necessary to bring about a system change for tourism. This can place the sector on a path that decouples it from coal-based electricity. It will also ensure that small businesses can adopt renewable electricity.</p>
<p>The green energy shift in tourism is <a href="https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/tourism/eu-tourism-transition/green-transition-tourism_en">already taking place</a> in developed economies in Europe. Turkey is another encouraging example. It has introduced a <a href="https://www.gstcouncil.org/turkiye-national-sustainable-tourism-program/">sustainable tourism programme</a>; solar PV panels are used widely by businesses and households alike. </p>
<p>Through shifting the tourism sector to renewable energy, tourism in South Africa can be part of the just transition too. This transition must include small and community-based tourism players. And, while tourism must play its part, other economic sectors should also step up.</p>
<p>Supportive South African policies are indispensable in developing an enabling environment for sustainability transitions. The state and its institutions must take greater responsibility and accountability to advance the social sustainability of energy policies. One way this could happen is by making the Green Tourism Incentive Programme more accessible to tourism enterprises across the country. </p>
<p><em>Kate Rivett-Carnac co-authored the research on which this article is based.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Irma Booyens is affiliated with the School of Tourism and Hospitality, University of Johannesburg, South Africa</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gijsbert Hoogendoorn and Kristy Langerman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some work is already being done to enhance the tourism sector’s environmental sustainability.Gijsbert Hoogendoorn, Professor in Tourism Geography, University of JohannesburgIrma Booyens, Senior Lecturer in Hospitality and Tourism Management, University of Strathclyde Kristy Langerman, Associate professor, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168482023-11-01T16:24:28Z2023-11-01T16:24:28ZSouth Africa’s medium-term budget reflects difficult and contested decisions<p>The <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/mtbps/2023/">medium-term budget policy statement</a> presented by South Africa’s finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, to parliament on 1 November 2023 is intended to provide a preview of government’s public finance plans over the next three years. It does not actually commit government to anything, either in law or in practice. Nevertheless, it is a crucial document because it presents what the National Treasury intends to be the broad, financial foundation for the functioning of national, provincial and local governments in the near future.</p>
<p>This year’s statement is particularly important for two reasons. The first is that South Africa’s fiscal situation is arguably at its worst in the post-apartheid era. The second is that any decisions taken, especially about the 2024/25 fiscal year, could affect how South Africans view the current government when voting in next year’s elections.</p>
<p>The crucial background to this year’s statement is that South Africa’s national debt levels relative to the size of the economy have increased substantially since 2008. The statement emphasises that the increase was approximately 47 percentage points from 2008. The three main reasons are the <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath">global financial crisis</a> that started in 2007, continued slow economic growth partly as a result of <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">state capture</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-power-outages-some-improvement-but-a-long-way-to-go-before-the-grid-is-stable-215840">power outages</a>, and the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>Additional reasons include lower tax collection, other major expenditure increases such as the “free higher education” policy <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/zuma-announces-free-higher-education-for-poor-and-working-class-students-20171216">announced</a> unexpectedly at the end of 2017, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/a-14-billion-bailout-for-eskom-leaves-south-african-power-crisis-unresolved">large transfers</a> to the state-owned power utility Eskom in response to its worsening financial position.</p>
<p>As things stand, national debt is expected to reach almost 75% of GDP by next year. Before the COVID-19 pandemic such levels would have been considered unsustainable by many economists and international financial institutions. The sustainability of national debt – how much a country can borrow without leading to a crisis later – drives a lot of thinking about country’s public finances. </p>
<p>But it’s not a science. What was almost unthinkable about debt levels before the COVID-19 pandemic has now become almost normal. Many countries have experienced large increases in their overall debt levels and the resultant debt service costs.</p>
<p>Some so-called radical economists <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/columnists/2020-05-11-duma-gqubule-sa-ticks-all-the-boxes-to-be-guided-by-modern-monetary-theory/">claim</a> that there are few limits on government expenditure. But this is, unfortunately, a luxury that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cje/article-abstract/47/3/555/7127028">may only be true</a> for much wealthier countries with greater economic and political power – like the US. </p>
<p>On the other side of the spectrum, recent scaremongering <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/727902/south-africa-risks-running-out-of-money-by-march-2/">statements that the country could “run out of cash”</a> are absurd and misleading. </p>
<p>The question for South Africa is what to do about high and growing levels of debt. A sustainable debt path isn’t just about reducing debt to a particular level. The process of how it’s done is also crucial. Cutting spending in a way that creates social harm and reduces economic growth is self-defeating. Raising taxes too much can also be counter-productive. But letting debt rise indefinitely will mean borrowing costs become impossible to meet without dramatic spending or taxation measures.</p>
<p>The result inevitably involves difficult trade-offs. But because these are contested, within government and by different interest groups, the consequences and details are often concealed or given a misleading spin. </p>
<h2>The devil in the detail</h2>
<p>A few examples from this year’s statement illustrate this – and the divisions within government itself.</p>
<p>The first is the issue of government spending on salaries.</p>
<p>In the past the National Treasury and some economists have sought to suggest that this kind of spending is inherently “unproductive”. In reality, even from a narrow economic perspective, that is incorrect. Such spending funds the work of teachers who are responsible for educating future generations, nurses whose job includes keeping people in the labour market healthy and alive, and police officers whose presence should contribute to keeping crime in check.</p>
<p>For many years there has been an arm-wrestling match between the treasury and other parts of government responsible for determining public sector wage agreements. The way this has been “resolved” is by the treasury budgeting for the wage increases it believes are appropriate, the other parts of government agreeing to higher wage agreements, and the treasury then forcing departments to cut the total number of employees in order to keep total wage costs down.</p>
<p>Although the treasury accompanies its stance by <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/mtbps/2023/2023%20MTBPS%20presentation%20-%20Staying%20the%20course%20for%20growth%20and%20sound%20public%20finances.pdf">promising</a> that “essential” or “labour intensive” departments and sectors will be protected, it has never provided any detailed information to actually show that is happening. The consequence is a form of “austerity by stealth” in relation to staff available to provide public services.</p>
<p>The much better solution would have been for a social compact on wage increases and public sector employment. That would require compromise from the treasury but also public sector trade unions. Unable to reach that kind of mature solution, the arm-wrestling continues every year with the general public being the losers. </p>
<p>This year the treasury budgeted for an increase of less than 2% but the <a href="https://www.dpsa.gov.za/thepublicservant/2023/04/01/public-sector-unions-accept-2023-24-wage-offer/">actual outcome</a> was 7.5%. Some of this will be covered by funds taken from other important expenditure items, while the rest will come from cutting public sector posts.</p>
<p>A seemingly positive development is that the statement now makes provision for a continuation of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/social-benefits/social-relief-distress">Social Relief of Distress Grant</a> that was introduced during COVID-19. This is one of the only sources of support to millions of South Africans who are unable to find employment. </p>
<p>The 2023 budget made no provision for the continuation of the grant: the treasury planned to end it in March 2024, immediately before the 2024 elections. Earlier this year I <a href="https://pmg.org.za/files/230301_Dr_Muller_Submission.pdf">argued to Parliament</a> that such a decision would be inequitable and could also unduly influence electoral outcomes. </p>
<p>While it seems sense has prevailed with treasury now planning more than R50 billion ($2.65bn) for such spending over the next two years, it remains to be seen what is proposed in the 2024 budget. </p>
<p>Another example relates to crucial public employment programmes. In a recent speech the president <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/address-president-cyril-ramaphosa-nation-economic-progress">cited</a> his Presidential Employment Initiative as a major success – although without providing any detailed evidence. The treasury proposes to extend this to 2024/25, which seems like a good thing. But it plans to do so by cannibalising funds for other public employment schemes like the Expanded Public Works Programme and Community Works Programme: arguably a case of “robbing Peter to pay Paul”. And it seems intent on continuing the costly and <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-employment-tax-incentive-is-not-a-success-story-168124">ineffective Employment Tax Incentive</a>. </p>
<p>Lastly, there is the thorny issue of taxes. The major cause of an increase in national debt levels this year is a shortfall in taxation revenue of almost R60 billion ($3.2bn). Only if you read the detail in the medium term budget statement does it turn out that a large part of this is due to private sector investment in decentralised renewable energy generation capacity. This isn’t fully explained, but is likely to be due to value added tax refunds linked to tax incentives introduced in the 2023 budget. In other words: it is the result of a policy proposed by the treasury itself.</p>
<h2>Watch this space</h2>
<p>While the minister and the treasury have provided an indication of current thinking, the crucial details and commitments of government’s fiscal plans will only be clear when the budget itself is tabled next year. And those will only be cemented <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-nitty-gritty-of-south-africas-annual-budget-72901">when approved by Parliament</a>. </p>
<p>Some political parties have suggested that the 2024 election may be the most important one since 1994: the same is arguably true of the 2024 budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seán Mfundza Muller receives funding from the Council on Higher Education for a project on the impact of the free higher education policy. He previously worked for the Parliamentary Budget Office and has also received project funding from the Financial and Fiscal Commission.</span></em></p>South Africa’s fiscal situation is arguably at its worst in the post-apartheid era but the proposed solutions are contentious.Seán Mfundza Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Johannesburg Institute for Advanced Study, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2158402023-10-31T12:07:08Z2023-10-31T12:07:08ZSouth Africa power outages: some improvement but a long way to go before the grid is stable<p>Over the past few months, South Africa’s power generation sector has performed <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-10-23-minister-hails-eskoms-improved-performance-for-keeping-lights-on/">better than expected</a>. Four factors explain this: an acceleration of solar power installations, less frequent breakdowns at power stations, a less restricted supply of diesel and the return to operation of some units at Kusile coal fired power station.</p>
<p>Throughout most of this year South Africa experienced prolonged and damaging electricity shortages, making 2023 <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business-opinion/697191/stage-7-load-shedding-but-not-quite/">the worst year to date</a>. The power utility Eskom confirmed this in its annual results presentation, in which it <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Eskom_integrated_report_2023.pdf">said</a>: “Eskom’s generating plant availability reached the lowest levels ever, due to unprecedented levels of unplanned unavailability.”</p>
<p>The percentage of functional power generating capacity, which was typically around 90% in the 1990s, <a href="https://amabhungane.org/stories/220928-the-collapse-of-old-king-coal-part-1/">has dropped over the past few years</a>. It was between 50% and 60% for most of 2023.</p>
<p>Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the country’s minister of electricity (a <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/dr-kgosientsho-ramokgopa-appointed-minister-electricity-presidency">post created recently</a> to deal with the electricity problems) has <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/energy/ramokgopa-we-have-turned-the-corner-b83ab89a-806b-4328-8fab-45e522f055c4">declared that the worst of the crisis is over</a>, and that power cuts will soon be a thing of the past.</p>
<p>Is he right? Is the government’s optimism justified?</p>
<p>There is certainly reason to be pleased that the 2023 winter electricity shortfalls were less grave than expected, and that Eskom has booked some recent successes in its efforts to stave off further declines. But it’s too early to claim a turnaround, which requires fundamental medium-term measures and reforms.</p>
<h2>Mitigating factors</h2>
<p>In the last year, a number of factors have assisted in mitigating the power crisis.</p>
<p>Firstly, an acceleration of private solar power installations. The acute power shortfalls triggered a long overdue drive towards private solar rooftop installations. The move was boosted by government-promoted <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/publication-renewable-energy-incentives-2023-draft-taxation-laws-amendment-bill-public">tax incentives</a> and <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/govt-launches-loan-scheme-for-solar-heres-who-can-apply-20230808">loan schemes</a>.</p>
<p>According to estimates provided by Eskom, the capacity of private solar installations has risen by <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/renewables/weekly-data-south-africas-unprecedented-rooftop-solar-boom/?cf-view">349% between March 2022 and June 2023</a>. The total peak generating capacity of these was in June 2023 expected to be almost 4,500 MW. As solar energy generation is limited to daytime sunny conditions, this translates to about 1,200 MW on average.</p>
<p>Secondly, less frequent breakdowns at the coal power station fleet, apparently linked to a decrease in sabotage activity.</p>
<p>The previous Eskom CEO claimed to have uncovered evidence of <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/investing/487033-andre-de-ruyter-exposes-eskom-sabotage-in-court-papers.html">massive sabotage at power plants</a>. While the scale of such sabotage is uncertain, it is likely that at least some has occurred.</p>
<p>There have been <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/police-investigating-over-1500-reports-eskom-sabotage">several arrests</a>. Instances of breakdown have been lower in recent months (although breakdowns are still extraordinarily high). Together with plant repairs, the effects have been to <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/eskom-latest-unplanned-outages-drop-by-2-000-mw/">reduce unplanned outages by about 2,000 MW</a>.</p>
<p>Thirdly, a less restricted supply of diesel.</p>
<p>In 2022 the power crisis deepened when Eskom <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/02e15491-03eb-4102-aafe-83e7e9d4fdec">ran short of funds to purchase diesel</a>. The power stations where electricity is generated from burning diesel are only envisaged as a backup during acute shortages, but have been kept running longer than intended.</p>
<p>Assisted by government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-government-take-over-half-eskoms-debt-2023-02-22/">taking over half of its debt</a>, Eskom has a much higher budget of <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-07-27-billions-blown-as-eskom-burns-through-its-emergency-use-diesel/">R27.9 billion for diesel purchases</a> (about US$1.6 billion) for the current financial year. Half of this amount has already been spent.</p>
<p>Lastly, the return to service of some of the damaged Kusile coal power station units. This plant could, if fully operational, contribute about 15% of the country’s electricity needs.</p>
<p>The scale of the power shortage in the last year was largely due to multiple failures at Kusile. Kusile is the country’s newest large plant, but nine years after its initially projected completion date, two of its six units have <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/635989/fresh-delays-at-medupi-and-kusile-amid-eye-watering-costs/">still not been finished</a>.</p>
<p>In October 2022 Kusile lost three of its units, or 2,400 MW, due to a <a href="https://mg.co.za/the-green-guardian/2023-01-24-eskom-needs-big-money-to-fix-kusiles-chimney-to-cut-load-shedding/">collapse of the flue ducts</a>. Two of these were restored in the last month, albeit with much <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/creecy-upholds-decision-allowing-kusile-to-bypass-pollution-system-with-tighter-conditions-2023-09-26">higher than usually permitted emission levels</a>. These additional 1,600 MW now available, and the 2,400 MW from the remaining three units <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/eskoms-generation-steadily-improving-ramokgopa">projected to come into service in the coming year</a>, are the main reason for the minister’s optimism.</p>
<p>On the down side, lengthy closures will be needed at some point to properly fix the flue ducts. It is also worrying that Kusile and the new Medupi plant have experienced so many failures already.</p>
<h2>Persistent dangers</h2>
<p>There are nevertheless signs that the recovery of the power generating sector is still far off.</p>
<p>The biggest threat is that the ageing and overworked coal plant fleet remains vulnerable to breakdowns.</p>
<p>Secondly, the life extension project for the country’s sole nuclear power plant, Koeberg, is progressing far too slowly. <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/opinion-koeberg-life-extension-could-flip-switch-on-half-a-trillion-rands-of-economic-damage-2022-11-24">Calls for its closure</a> are gaining traction.</p>
<p>Koeberg’s operating licence expires in July 2024. If not renewed, Koeberg’s two units would have to be closed for good. That would result in a 4% drop in the country’s generating capacity.</p>
<p>To extend this licence for 20 years, the National Nuclear Regulator has requested significant plant upgrades and component replacements. This was in 2010 projected to <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-11-28-r20bn-life-extension-of-koeberg-power-station-poses-significant-risks-for-south-africa/">cost R20 billion</a> (US$2.8 billion at the time) and require five months’ down time for each unit.</p>
<p>Given <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-nuclear-sector-has-failed-its-test-the-koeberg-nuclear-plant-life-extension-188013">bad planning</a> and <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/community-newspaper/tygerburger/unit-1-at-koeberg-power-station-delayed-for-10-days-20231027">delays</a> so far, it is unlikely that work will be completed by the licence expiry date.</p>
<p>Thirdly, delays in the drafting of a revised national electricity plan highlight sharp disagreement within government on the solution.</p>
<p>Electricity generating infrastructure planning in South Africa is guided by Integrated Resource Plans that are supposed to be redone every two years. The country is currently using a plan <a href="https://www.energy.gov.za/irp/2019/IRP-2019.pdf">approved in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>The next plan is therefore already two years late, and its release for public comment has been <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mantashe-says-release-of-irp-2023-for-comment-is-imminent-2023-05-09">promised for many months</a>. The latest <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mantashe-aiming-to-secure-cabinet-approval-for-irp-2023-in-sept-2023-08-29">September release date</a> was also missed.</p>
<p>The delays probably reflect unhappiness in parts of the ruling party with a path that emphasises renewable energy. The minister of mining and energy, whose department is responsible for the energy plan, is known to <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/coal-is-king-insists-mantashe-as-ramaphosa-is-feted-for-green-plan-in-egypt-20221111">favour power generation from coal</a>, gas and nuclear.</p>
<h2>What’s needed</h2>
<p>Without strategic alignment on how to address the electricity crisis, government won’t be able to develop new power plants. The old coal plants will not be as efficient as 20 years ago, and high breakdown levels will persist.</p>
<p>It therefore remains unlikely that South Africa’s electricity problems will end in the short to medium term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation. He is a contributor to the 2023 World Nuclear Industry Status Report.</span></em></p>The recovery of South Africa’s power generating sector is still far from being realised.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2066202023-06-01T14:39:04Z2023-06-01T14:39:04ZSouth Africa’s power blackouts: solutions lie in solar farms and battery storage at scale, and an end to state monopoly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529320/original/file-20230531-15-92o21w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protestors take to the streets in Johannesburg, South Africa against extended power cuts.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rolling blackouts are costing South Africa dearly. The electricity crisis is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-efforts-to-tackle-its-energy-crisis-lack-urgency-and-coherence-176993">barrier to growth</a>, destroys investor confidence and handicaps almost every economic activity. It has raised input costs for producers and retailers, and has triggered a new round of inflation and interest rate increases. </p>
<p>Any solution will obviously incur cost because it will require the adoption of new technologies, such as large-scale grid-connected solar farms that are linked to battery energy storage. But these technologies are expensive. A <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/2/488">solar farm</a> consisting of 50 MW of photovoltaic panels with 240 MWh of storage capacity will cost R2.6 billion. Batteries are the biggest outlay, accounting for about 40% of the total cost.</p>
<p>A photovoltaic panel converts solar energy to electricity, which can be used to charge a bank of batteries or supply consumers directly. The batteries then supply the stored energy into the grid over peak periods.</p>
<p>Combining solar with storage makes it more expensive than coal – which still accounts for <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/csir-releases-statistics-on-power-generation-south-africa-2022">80% of South Africa’s electricity generation</a> – when comparing units of energy produced. But this technology is affordable relative to the options consumers are already adopting in significant volumes – diesel generators or small-scale batteries coupled to inverters – as long as it is at large scale and is used for peak power only.</p>
<p>I argue that South Africa can solve much of its energy crisis by building new facilities consisting of battery storage with photovoltaic panels. However, the new technology cannot be used without reform of the wholesale energy market.</p>
<h2>Reforms to the energy market</h2>
<p>Much of the media’s attention to the energy crisis has been focused on generation capacity, or lack thereof. But there is another equally important contributor – the failure by the government to unbundle Eskom (the state-owned electricity utility) and create a market operator and a transmission system operator as independent entities. </p>
<p>A market operator is an energy “stock exchange”. It facilitates contracts between the energy producers, the transmission system and the distributors. Many countries in the world have already restructured their electricity supply industry to establish such a market and introduce greater competition among the power producers. </p>
<p>The UK, <a href="https://www.publications.gov.on.ca/future-of-ontarios-electricity-market-a-benefits-case-assessment-of-the-market-renewal-project">Canada</a>, the US and many countries in the European Union have undertaken market reforms like this, with positive outcomes.</p>
<p>South Africa indicated an intention to follow such an <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/energy-policy-white-paper-0">approach in 1998</a>. But it has never acted on this policy. Instead, it has kept alive an increasingly inefficient and dysfunctional state-owned utility. As a result, the country has a shortage of generation capacity, a shortage of connection and transmission capacity, and a growing environmental disaster.</p>
<h2>Blackouts have changed supply and demand</h2>
<p>Analysis of the usage data from the <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/dataportal/">Eskom portal</a> suggests that rolling power blackouts have led to changes in the country’s energy landscape.</p>
<p>On the supply side, customers are increasingly using alternative energy sources. Consumers who require stable energy supply have made alternative plans, in most cases shifting to the use of diesel generators. Figures of diesel consumption are not available, but, based on the electricity shortfall, I estimate, using the data for April 2023, that the additional diesel usage, excluding Eskom and the independent power producers, was about 660 million litres per month, which is almost the same as the amount used by the whole transport sector.</p>
<p>On the demand side, the blackouts have led to shifts in the use of grid electricity at a different time of the day/night cycle. This has been driven mainly by the use of lithium batteries. Eskom is already <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/charging-inverters-during-peak-could-push-up-demand-by-one-stage-of-load-shedding-eskom-20230525?utm_source=24.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=_4838_+_44148105_+_81120_&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news24.com%2Ffin24%2Fclimate_future%2Fenergy%2Fcharging-inverters-during-peak-could-push-up-demand-by-one-stage-of-load-shedding-eskom-20230525">reporting</a> that there is an added demand of 1.4GW to recharge battery storage, or about 5% additional load on the grid.</p>
<h2>The costs of small-scale solutions</h2>
<p>The cost of a battery-plus-inverter system to meet the needs of an average household under <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-04-19-shedding-some-light-on-eskoms-eight-stages-of-grief-and-pain/">Stage 4 loadshedding</a> – which is about 6 hours of outages every 24 hours – is about R100,000 to R150,000 (about US$5,000 to $7,600). At current interest rates, and assuming an average energy consumption of 15kWh per day and an Eskom rate of R2.75 per kWh, the net cost will be R6.10 per kWh. This makes it more expensive than diesel.</p>
<p>Back-up power from an 8kVA diesel generator, using the same set of assumptions, will cost about R5.20 per kWh, including diesel and capital charges.</p>
<p>The installation of 1.4GW of battery capacity nationally confirms that there is already a market for the purchase of energy at higher cost. Energy security is a necessity for many businesses, especially those operating cold storage or essential equipment. </p>
<h2>The costs of large-scale solar with batteries</h2>
<p>In a recently <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/86850">published article</a>
I set out what the landscape might look like if South Africa implemented a plan to balance renewable energy capacity and time-of-use tariffs, and ended Eskom’s monopoly. </p>
<p>Customers could pay different rates depending on the time of day when they used electricity.</p>
<p>For my <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/86850">article</a>, I used a simple model for the South African energy grid and considered the optimal configuration for a photovoltaic/battery storage facility which could provide peak power of 6GW, which is about 20% of the total demand.</p>
<p>It concluded that the grid would need an installed photovoltaic capacity of 18GW, coupled with a storage system rated at 3.7GW/10.4 GWh. The facility would pay for itself if a time-of-use tariff of R3.50 per kWh, almost double the present tariff excluding network charges, could be levied. </p>
<p>But this would require <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-latest-plan-for-state-owned-power-giant-could-work-111480">ending Eskom’s distribution monopoly</a> and the establishment of the market operator. Different tariffs would be the result of competition between different players. </p>
<h2>A three-step plan</h2>
<p>The analysis suggests that it would be possible to solve the peak power problem in three steps. Firstly, unbundle Eskom and establish the market operator, secondly use the bail-out funds to build connection capacity, and thirdly, use the market operator to build large-scale photovoltaic/battery capacity. Market reform has been on the policy agenda for nearly 25 years. But little real progress has been made. South Africa should stop going around in circles. It needs to take a straight line in the fast lane.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Richard Walwyn receives funding from the National Research Foundation for a project on the development of vehicle-to-grid technology. The project is unrelated to the contents of this article. </span></em></p>South Africa could end power blackouts if it implemented a plan to balance renewable energy capacity, time-of-use tariffs and ended the power utility’s monopoly.David Richard Walwyn, Professor of Technology Management, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061012023-05-24T13:42:03Z2023-05-24T13:42:03ZCorruption in South Africa: former CEO’s explosive book exposes how state power utility was destroyed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527785/original/file-20230523-19-yugb19.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PenguinRandomHouse</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One repeated theme of the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/truth-power-my-three-years-inside-eskom/9781776390625#:%7E:text=De%20Ruyter%20candidly%20reflects%20on,to%20speak%20truth%20to%20power">memoir</a> Truth to Power: My Three Years Inside Eskom, by Andre de Ruyter, former CEO of South Africa’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-electricity-supply-whats-tripping-the-switch-151331">troubled power utility</a>, Eskom, is that “negligence and carelessness had become cemented into the organisation”. </p>
<p>Dirt piled up at even the newest power stations until it damaged equipment, which stopped working – and some equipment disappeared beneath a layer of ash.</p>
<p>Integrity had been displaced by greed and crime: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Corruption had metastasised to permeate much of the organisation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a political scientist who has, among other topics, followed corruption and kleptocracy, this book ranks among the more informative.</p>
<p>De Ruyter (or his ghost writer) delivers a pacey, racy adventure <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/truth-power-my-three-years-inside-eskom/9781776390625">thriller</a>. Chapter after chapter reads like a horror story about Eskom, whose failure to generate enough electricity consistently for <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-and-food-safety-how-to-avoid-illness-during-loadshedding-200586">the past 15</a> years has <a href="https://www.investec.com/en_za/focus/economy/sa-s-load-shedding-how-the-sectors-are-being-affected.html">hobbled the economy</a>. </p>
<p>The book is also a sobering indication that parts of South Africa now fester with organised crime.</p>
<p>This book merits its place alongside <a href="https://www.loot.co.za/product/crispian-olver-how-to-steal-a-city/jywy-5080-g730?PPC=Y&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgZaS7pbE3QIVS7DtCh0EGQXfEAAYASAAEgLszPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds">How to Steal a City</a> and <a href="https://jacana.co.za/product/how-to-steal-a-country-state-capture-and-hopes-for-the-future-in-south-africa/">How to Steal a Country</a>. These two books chronicle how corruption undermined respectively a city and a country to the level where they became dysfunctional.</p>
<h2>Brazen looting</h2>
<p>Another take-away is the devastating indictment of De Ruyter’s immediate predecessors as CEO, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/matshela-koko/">Matshela Koko</a> and <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/brian-molefe/">Brian Molefe</a>. They appear as incompetent managers who ran into the ground what the Financial Times of London had praised as the world’s best state-owned enterprise as recently as 2001. Both <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/live-former-eskom-boss-matshela-koko-arrested-on-corruption-charges-20221027">Koko</a> and <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/molefe-singh-back-in-palm-ridge-specialised-commercial-crimes-court/">Molefe</a> have been charged with corruption – at Eskom and the transport parastatal Transet, respectively.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explosive-revelations-about-south-africas-power-utility-why-new-electricity-minister-should-heed-the-words-of-former-eskom-ceo-201508">Explosive revelations about South Africa's power utility: why new electricity minister should heed the words of former Eskom CEO</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The standard joke about corruption is “Mr Ten Percent” – meaning a middleman who adds 10% onto the price of everything passing through his hands. Under Koko and Molefe, this had allegedly ballooned into “Mr Ten Thousand Percent”. </p>
<p>For example, De Ruyter writes that Eskom was just stopped in the nick of time from paying a middleman R238,000 for a cleaning mop. </p>
<p>Corruption focused on the procurement chain. One middleman bought knee-pads for R150 (US$7,80) and sold them to Eskom for R80,000 (US$4,200). Another bought a knee-pad for R4,025 (US$209) and sold it to Eskom for R934,950 (US$48,544). The same applied to toilet rolls and rubbish bags. One inevitable consequence of corruption on such a scale was that Eskom’s debt, which was R40 billion (US$2.076 billion) in 2007 (the year that former president Jacob Zuma came to power), ballooned to R483 billion (US$25 billion) by 2020 – which incurred R31 billion (US$160 million) in annual finance charges.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Book cover showing a Caucasian man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PenguinRandomHouse</span></span>
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<p>De Ruyter reveals that the “presidential” cartel (meaning one of the local mafias) pillaged Matla power station, the “Mesh-Kings” cartel Duvha power station, the “Legendaries” cartel Tutuka power station, and the “Chief” cartel Majuba power station. He writes that the going rate for bribes at Kusile power station is R200,000 (US$10,377) to falsify the delivery of one truckload of good quality coal. <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/special-investigating-unit-secure-another-preservation-order-matter-related-corruption">Kusile</a> is one of the two giant new coal-fired power stations which Eskom is relying on to end power cuts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-bailout-of-eskom-wont-end-power-cuts-splitting-up-the-utility-can-as-other-countries-have-shown-200490">South Africa's bailout of Eskom won't end power cuts: splitting up the utility can, as other countries have shown</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The book says a senior officer at the <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/dpci/index.php">Hawks</a>, the police’s priority crimes investigation units, tipped off De Ruyter how he was blocked in all his attempts to combat corruption at Eskom. Senior police officers, at least one prosecutor, and a senior magistrate, have also been bribed by the gangs. </p>
<h2>Noncomformist</h2>
<p>Eskom had 13 CEOs and acting CEOs in 13 years. Twenty-eight candidates, most of them black, rejected head-hunters’ offers to become CEO of Eskom. De Ruyter who was previously CEO of Nampak, took a pay cut (to R7 million) to accept the job, in the hope of accelerating Eskom’s transition from coal to renewables.</p>
<p>At the time of his appointment some commentators alleged that he was an African National Congress (ANC) cadre deployed to Eskom. The ANC’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321223498_The_African_National_Congress_ANC_and_the_Cadre_Deployment_Policy_in_the_Postapartheid_South_Africa_A_Product_of_Democratic_Centralisation_or_a_Recipe_for_a_Constitutional_Crisis">cadre deployment</a> policy is aimed at ensuring that all the levers of power are in loyal party hands – often regardless of ability and probity. But De Ruyter came <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/anc-claims-de-ruyter-is-trying-to-tarnish-its-image-ahead-of-elections-in-2024-20230426">into conflict</a> with the ruling party.</p>
<p>What caught De Ruyter out was the viciousness of the political attacks on him: smears of racism and financial impropriety. He had to devote many hours of office time to refuting them: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>occupying that seat at Megawatt Park comes with political baggage. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://za.geoview.info/eskom_megawatt_park,32555009w">Megawatt Park</a> is Eskom’s head office in Johannesburg. </p>
<p>The book’s early chapters summarise how he was one of those Afrikaners with Dutch parents, who did not conform entirely to apartheid norms. The Afrikaner <em>volk</em> imposed the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/apartheid">apartheid</a> regime onto South Africa for 42 years. In his high school years he became a card-carrying member of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Progressive-Federal-Party">Progressive Federal Party</a>, a liberal anti-apartheid opposition party, antecedent of the Democratic Alliance, which is now the official opposition to the governing party. </p>
<h2>Poisoning</h2>
<p>De Ruyter’s book mentions organising a routine Eskom stakeholders’ meeting at a guesthouse in Mpumalanga province. </p>
<p>To save time, he ordered that food be served on plates to table places, instead of buffet arrangements. The guesthouse management refused, due to fear of facilitating poisoning one or more guests – only buffet arrangements could thwart that. </p>
<p>He says that in Tshwane (Pretoria), the seat of government, the National Prosecution Authority no longer orders takeaway lunches for delivery to their premises. Instead, standard procedure is that a staff member buys lunches for all at random take-away shops. </p>
<p>This sinister development culminated in De Ruyter himself being poisoned with cyanide in his coffee in his office, demonstrating how mafia-type gangs had recruited at least one Eskom headquarters staff member.</p>
<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>In several places De Ruyter also touches on other issues. The unintended consequence of some government policies, such as localisation and <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/comm_media/press/2022/2022110801%20Media%20Statement%20-%20PPP%20Regulations%202022.pdf">preferential procurement</a>, is that it costs Eskom two and a half times more to pay for each kilometre of transmission cable than it costs <a href="https://www.nampower.com.na/">Nampower</a> Namibia’s power utility, just across the border. </p>
<p>What stands out from this memoir is that the success of a company demands that a CEO, managers, artisans, guards, and cleaners all take the attitude that the buck stops with them – seven days a week – and act accordingly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this review in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The book shows how parts of South Africa now fester with organised crime.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005862023-05-01T10:41:49Z2023-05-01T10:41:49ZPower cuts and food safety: how to avoid illness during loadshedding <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522112/original/file-20230420-201-bpqhqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keep as little food as possible in your fridge and freezer.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa has been grappling with power cuts for <a href="https://www.myggsa.co.za/when-did-load-shedding-first-start-in-south-africa/">15 years</a>, which have <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/quarterly-bulletins/boxes/2022/december/Measures%20of%20electricity%20load-shedding.pdf">worsened in recent years</a>. The persistent power outages have disrupted <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/search?q=power+cuts">every facet of life</a>, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-fridge-might-not-be-cold-enough-to-keep-food-safe-70262">food safety</a>. The Conversation Africa’s Ina Skosana spoke to food safety expert Lise Korsten about the impact of persistent power cuts on the food in our homes and the best ways to protect ourselves.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>How should we manage the food in our fridges?</h2>
<p>The reality is that loadshedding for extended periods of time is causing temperature fluctuations in our fridges. Particularly if the fridge is regularly opened during loadshedding or if it has old rubber sealants. Temperature fluctuations can make food go bad. </p>
<p>To start with, let’s consider “what’s in our fridges”, “do we really need to keep so much perishable food in our fridges” and “how safe is it, given current loadshedding schedules”.</p>
<p>Loadshedding is forcing us to think about food safety and spoilage, our general behaviour in terms of food purchases, storage, managing our fridges, hygiene and the use of leftover food. </p>
<p>We need to ask ourselves: “are we buying more food than we should, and are we not wasting more food?”</p>
<p>Perhaps we should consider a more minimalist lifestyle if we are to survive the current economic downturn and manage the impact of loadshedding. </p>
<p>Keeping too much food in fridges increases the potential risk of food-borne illness given our current energy crises. In short, households need to better manage the food in fridges and keep as little of it as possible. </p>
<h2>What’s the best way to avoid illness?</h2>
<p>Keep your fridge – and kitchen – clean. Doing so will reduce the potential of organisms that can proliferate in these environments and cause illnesses, such as food poisoning. There are a few basic ways to maintain hygiene:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>regularly clean your fridge and keep a special eye on obvious potential contamination points such as areas where, for instance, the blood from raw meat dripped onto the bottom shelf </p></li>
<li><p>defrost your freezer to remove any ice building up that can affect the performance of the freezer. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>New fridges often maintain the temperature more effectively for longer periods of time due to new, well-fitting seals. If it’s an older fridge and the rubber seals are broken or the door doesn’t close properly, temperature fluctuations will more likely occur.</p>
<p>A good rule is also to keep your fridge closed during loadshedding and pack more higher risk items towards the back where less temperature fluctuations will occur. The door of the fridge is a higher risk area because of higher temperature fluctuations. This is important since we often keep milk in this compartment, thereby increasing the risk of it going off before the use-by date. </p>
<p>So set your fridge or freezer temperature correctly, and make sure it’s clean and fully functional. The key is keep the temperature consistent and manage the stocks in your fridge. </p>
<h2>Why does fridge temperature matter?</h2>
<p>We don’t get sick from just one organism. We get sick from a certain number of tiny organisms. What is important to keep in mind is that some microorganisms can multiply rapidly – in fact some every <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780433101000500091">20 minutes</a>, others even every <a href="https://blogs.udla.edu.ec/haccp/2017/05/25/bacteria-and-how-they-multiply/#:%7E:text=In%20the%20right%20conditions%2C%20a,would%20have%20over%208%2C000%20bacteria.">10 minutes</a>. </p>
<p>Environmental conditions – such as fluctuating temperatures – will influence how many organisms are present at a certain point in time and can multiply. If the food is kept at temperatures that fluctuate it will encourage rapid growth of microorganism to levels high enough to cause illness by the time the food is consumed. </p>
<p>In general, microorganisms can multiply at temperatures between 4°C and 60°C. This temperature range is often called the “danger zone” in food safety. Some of these organisms prefer room temperature to rapidly multiply. Leaving food outside the fridge is, therefore, risky behaviour since you do not know if food is contaminated with any pathogens or if general spoilage can occur. The strategy is, therefore, to prevent contamination or “slow down” the growth of organisms through effective cold chain management. </p>
<p>The amount of microorganisms in food that can cause illnesses varies. It can be as little as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2553879/">10 or 100 colony forming units</a> – the number of microbial cells in a sample that are able to multiply – per gramme of food. Some organisms can make us sick very quickly, even if only a few cells were initially present. Others increase in number over time when temperatures fluctuate, making food temperature management important. </p>
<p>It’s also important to remember that not all microorganisms are enemies. Less <a href="https://microbiologysociety.org/why-microbiology-matters/what-is-microbiology/microbes-and-the-human-body/microbes-and-disease.html">than 1%</a> actually make us sick. We need to understand the microbial balance in nature and manage the system to our benefit. </p>
<h2>Is it safe to eat leftovers?</h2>
<p>It’s interesting to mention <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0020872817742703">a study</a> where waste pickers were asked how they know when food is safe to eat. They explained reliance on basic skills and instinct, which in essence means sensory parameters: smelling if food is off, touch (that slimy feeling), that “look” (texture and offish) and memory – once you have been sick from a specific food item your body will instinctively react (almost like a shiver down the spine). </p>
<p>These instincts are important and are in a way a survival skill, so be stringent when keeping leftover food. If you do, try and consume it as soon as possible, preferably the next day. Also, if you heat something, do so properly. A golden rule is to avoid reheating food, especially not more than once. Keep in mind that microorganisms can survive high and low temperatures, and can rapidly multiply during the cooling down periods. So your timeline for safety gets less the longer you keep your food and expose it to fluctuating temperatures.</p>
<p>If possible, make sure you only prepare enough food for a meal, and try and keep fewer leftovers in your fridge. We should also start thinking about eating smaller portions and ask ourselves the question: do our bodies really need that volume of food? It is better, for our mind and soul, to be more conscious of using food wisely and wasting less. This is important in a country where a <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-hunger-problem-is-turning-into-a-major-health-crisis-183736">very high percentage</a> of people go to bed hungry every night.</p>
<h2>So what to do?</h2>
<p>We all have time constraints, with the majority of people getting home late at night and having to rapidly prepare a healthy, safe meal. So plan meal portions, preparation and serving times around loadshedding, and manage the food in the fridge more wisely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lise Korsten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The era of stocking pantries and keeping our fridges and freezers full is over.Lise Korsten, Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Plant Pathology and Co-Director at the Centre of Excellence in Food Security, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2037922023-04-18T14:20:45Z2023-04-18T14:20:45ZSouth Africa’s power outages could reach critical levels this winter - likely scenarios<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521555/original/file-20230418-28-shu8td.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A worker leans on a collapsed pylon in Pretoria on April 12, 2023. Ageing infrastructure exacerbates the country's energy supply crisis. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michele Spatari/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past 15 years South Africa has been experiencing a gradually <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-03-19-failing-state-corporate-sa-counts-the-cost-of-impact-of-worsening-rolling-blackouts/">worsening number of electricity cuts</a>. This state of affairs has prompted frustration among citizens, negative international economic sentiment and financial hardship for many businesses. </p>
<p>Public pressure has grown more intense, leading to the extraordinary presidential decision by President Cyril Ramaphosa to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/10/south-africas-ramaphosa-calls-state-of-disaster-on-power">proclaim a state of disaster</a> as well as to appoint <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-cabinet-reshuffle-6-mar-2023-0000">a Minister of Electricity</a>.</p>
<p>The year 2022 was marked by the worst power outages <a href="https://mg.co.za/environment/2023-02-23-csir-warns-that-eskoms-energy-crunch-will-continue-to-wreak-havoc-and-could-cause-water-cuts/">in the country’s history</a>. Electricity <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/load-shedding/stage-6-load-shedding-heres-how-we-got-here/">generation deficits reached up to 6 GW</a> on occasion, necessitating up to 10 hours of rolling electricity blackouts.</p>
<p>High outages have persisted through the warmer early months of 2023, and since early January the country has experienced power cuts <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business-opinion/681001/from-bad-to-worse-load-shedding-vs-blackout-hours-in-south-africa/">every day</a>. </p>
<p>It’s widely expected to get worse as electricity consumption peaks in the southern winter months of June and July. And there’s a growing fear that the national electricity grid could, at some point, collapse entirely. This would lead to blackouts lasting many days or even weeks.</p>
<p>Based on an analysis of trends and recent events in the power sector, I here identify the factors that I expect will lead to power outages reaching critical proportions this winter. I also assess the likelihood of record electricity shortages and catastrophic scenarios such as a complete grid collapse.</p>
<h2>The power generation mix, and what’s failing</h2>
<p><strong>Coal-fired power stations</strong>. The national electricity utility <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/csir-releases-statistics-on-power-generation-south-africa-first-half-2022-and-loadshedding-data">Eskom currently has an installed</a> maximum generating capacity of 55 GW. Of this a massive 74% (40 GW) is generated from coal power stations.</p>
<p>These are mostly older plants approaching – or already exceeding – their projected 40-year life spans. In recent years, and partly as a result of persistent power shortages, the power stations have been used excessively. They have also been insufficiently serviced. </p>
<p>The result is that the plants break down far too frequently, accounting for the bulk of Eskom’s lost capacity.</p>
<p>There are two much newer coal plants – Medupi and Kusile – that together <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/299092/r290-billion-medupi-and-kusile-badly-designed-and-constructed-gordhan/">should provide 9.6 GW</a>. These builds were initiated in 2007 to mitigate against power shortages that were predicted a decade down the line.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-07-07-medupi-kusile-and-the-massive-costtime-overrun/">the two plants</a> ended up costing more than double the sum initially projected. They were also hamstrung by huge construction delays and technical design flaws.</p>
<p>One of Medupi’s units (0.8 GW) suffered a massive explosion, and repairs are only expected to be <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/medupi-units-1-to-3-at-full-load-eskom-to-bring-damaged-unit-4-online-in-august-2024-2022-05-20">completed in 2024</a>.</p>
<p>In October last year Kusile experienced a catastrophic <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/eskom-to-apply-for-enviro-exemption-to-allow-for-earlier-restart-of-kusile-units-2023-01-22">chimney collapse</a>. Full repairs would require two years. </p>
<p>To allow the units to operate sooner Eskom applied for and received a special <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/asset-maintenance/kusile-power-station-gets-air-quality-exemption-from-minister-creecy/">permission to exceed normal pollution limits</a>. Even so, the affected units will only be ready to produce power again at the end of this year at the earliest.</p>
<p><strong>Nuclear</strong>. This accounts for 3% of the national generation capacity. Two units at the <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/nuclear/">Koeberg power station</a> in the Western Cape have a total capacity of 1.8 GW. To continue operating beyond the end of its currently approved 40-year lifespan in 2024, Eskom is making major upgrades that had been <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/community-newspaper/tygerburger/unit-1-of-the-koeberg-nuclear-power-station-switched-off-20221214">projected to need six months</a> per unit.</p>
<p>But the exercise is already well <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/koeberg-project-is-now-45-days-behind-schedule-electricity-minister-confirms-20230324">behind schedule</a>. This means that one unit that would normally generate 0.9 GW will be unavailable during this year’s winter months.</p>
<p><strong>Gas, hydro, wind and solar</strong>. The remaining 13 GW (23%) of the South African power generating capacity is <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/csir-releases-statistics-on-power-generation-south-africa-2022">roughly equally shared</a> by gas, hydro, wind and solar. These typically only produce <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/renewables-statistics-point-to-slow-response-to-south-africas-power-constraints-2020-06-22">25%-50% of their nominal maximum power</a>. </p>
<p>The constraints include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the intermittent nature of sunshine and wind and the irregularity of water flow due to water management requirements.</p></li>
<li><p>Gas is a very expensive electricity producing technology that is only intended to be used in emergencies. Overuse last winter resulted in Eskom being unable to make fuller use of this resource later, leading to power shortage over the last summer as well.</p></li>
<li><p>Renewable power plants currently only have a small footprint in the South African energy mix. This has meant that they can’t for now play a major role in mitigating power shortages. The significant <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">upswing in domestic solar installations</a> in the past year as well as the projected completion of many new solar and wind farms in late 2024 is not yet sufficient to overcome the power deficit.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The winter spike</h2>
<p>No major relief to the power shortfall in the form of large new power generating units is due to happen before next year. South Africans therefore have to brace for the winter power shortages.</p>
<p>South Africa’s electricity <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/90810/beware-colder-winter-in-2015-eskom/">daily peak consumption rises from a summer average of 32 GW to 36 GW in winter</a>. This is caused by the increased use of electrical heating devices, as well as the longer use of lights and increased geyser consumption.</p>
<p>Eskom has tried to maximise the operation of its power plants in the colder months by scheduling plant maintenance during the warmer seasons. This strategy is being adopted again in 2023 and will provide some relief. But there are too many plants that are going to be out of operation for the entire winter season.</p>
<p>My estimations suggest that the mid-winter power shortfall will be of the order of 2 GW greater than it was in 2022. Deficits of 8 GW (referred to locally as “Stage 8 loadshedding” – the highest level of power outages) can therefore be expected on some days.</p>
<h2>The danger of a grid collapse</h2>
<p>A national blackout triggered by the current oscillating frequency of the grid drifting too far from the prescribed 50 Hertz would raise the danger of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">power grid collapsing</a>. This would happen if points along the grid – including power plants – tripped one after the other, resulting in zero electricity everywhere.</p>
<p>Re-energising the grid would be a slow process achieved one station at a time. Many days of economic activity would be lost before full electricity supply is recovered. The <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/what-would-happen-if-sas-electricity-grid-collapsed-20230316">consequences</a> would be far reaching, and would include possible looting and vandalism. It could also lead to fuel shortages, which in turn would affect transport and industry and a host of facilities that use backup generators such as hospitals, laboratories and morgues.</p>
<p>Rolling power cuts are the best practical way to prevent a grid collapse and total blackout. Eskom is therefore at pains to always keep the generated power higher than the power used. It does this by cutting access to electricity to some users.</p>
<p>A prompt reduction in power usage through the speedy implementation of tougher electricity cuts would always prevent a grid collapse. Nonetheless, a grid collapse cannot be ruled out if, for example, a set of poorly performing coal plants all break down in quick succession.</p>
<p>As South Africa’s new <a href="https://mg.co.za/environment/2023-04-06-electricity-minister-ramokgopa-brace-for-a-dark-winter/">Electricity Minister has warned</a>, the winter of 2023 is going to be challenging.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203792/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>South Africa faces the possibility of record electricity shortages and catastrophic scenarios such as a complete grid collapse.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2010062023-03-15T12:10:37Z2023-03-15T12:10:37ZSouth Africa’s corporate whistleblowers don’t get enough protection: what needs to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515196/original/file-20230314-2721-thcftk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Corporate misconduct is difficult to detect and prove. This is because it is often hidden by a complicated web of transactions, misleading corporate records and convoluted company group structures. This is why corporate whistleblowers whose positions give them an inside track on misconduct are so important in exposing corporate crime and corruption.</p>
<p>But whistleblowers risk personal and financial risk by coming out. Whistleblower protection in South Africa lags behind international standards and inadequately protects whistleblowers in some respects.</p>
<p>Given South Africa’s <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022/index/zaf">high levels of corporate corruption</a>, whistleblowers deserve high levels of protection. Despite some protections given to whistleblowers, the reporting rates of wrongdoing are low. The main reasons for this are a fear of being victimised and a fear of losing one’s job. The low levels of reports of wrongdoing and the widespread <a href="https://specialprojects.news24.com/silenced/index.html">victimisation of whistleblowers</a> are proof of the weak protection South Africa offers corporate whistleblowers.</p>
<p>I have conducted research on the protection of corporate whistleblowers in South Africa compared to international jurisdictions, such as Australia. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368554917_A_Critical_Analysis_of_the_Corporate_Whistleblowing_Provisions_of_the_South_African_Companies_Act">In my research</a> I found that section 159 of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/321214210.pdf">Companies Act</a> does not go far enough in protecting corporate whistleblowers. It is defective and must be urgently reformed. </p>
<h2>The regulation of corporate whistleblowing</h2>
<p>Whistleblowing in private and public sector companies, including state-owned entities, is regulated by <a href="https://www.onlinemoi.co.za/Act?section=159">Section 159</a> of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/companies-act">Companies Act of 2008</a>.</p>
<p>It protects corporate whistleblowers who disclose wrongdoing by the company or a director or <a href="https://www.onlinemoi.co.za/Regulation?regulation=38">prescribed officer</a>. But to be protected, the whistleblower must act in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368554917_A_Critical_Analysis_of_the_Corporate_Whistleblowing_Provisions_of_the_South_African_Companies_Act">good faith</a> and must <a href="https://juta.co.za/catalogue/contemporary-company-law_28776">reasonably believe</a> that there was wrongdoing.</p>
<p>The wrongdoing could relate to breaches of the Companies Act or other legislation, a failure to comply with the law, any acts that endanger the health and safety of a person or harm the environment, or unfair discrimination.</p>
<p>The disclosure of wrongdoing must be made to specific persons. These include the <a href="https://www.cipc.co.za/">Companies and Intellectual Property Commission</a>, the <a href="https://www.companiestribunal.org.za/">Companies Tribunal</a>, a director, <a href="https://www.onlinemoi.co.za/Regulation?regulation=38">prescribed officer</a>, company secretary, auditor, legal advisor, the board or a committee of the company.</p>
<p>The corporate whistleblowers who are protected by the Companies Act include shareholders, directors, company secretaries, prescribed officers, registered trade unions, and suppliers of goods or services to a company and their employees. </p>
<h2>The protections given to whistleblowers</h2>
<p>The Companies Act provides three protections to whistleblowers. </p>
<p>First, they get qualified privilege for their disclosure. This means that they cannot be sued for defamation for what they said, unless they acted with malice or an improper motive.</p>
<p>Secondly, they are immune from civil, criminal or administrative liability for their disclosure. This means that they are protected from liability for making the disclosure of wrongdoing. But they are not immune from liability for their own conduct that may have been revealed by the disclosure.</p>
<p>Thirdly, whistleblowers may claim compensation for any damages they suffer if anyone harms them or threatens to harm them. </p>
<p>As discussed below, these protections to whistleblowers need to be broadened and strengthened. </p>
<h2>Confusing framework</h2>
<p>South Africa has a patchwork of statutes regulating whistleblowing. Both the Companies Act and the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/acts/2000-026.pdf">Protected Disclosures Act of 2000</a> govern whistleblowing by employees in companies. </p>
<p>This means that employees in companies <a href="https://juta.co.za/catalogue/contemporary-company-law_28776">must consult both</a> the Companies Act and the Protected Disclosures Act when disclosing wrongdoing. This can be challenging for employees because of the different requirements under each statute that must be met before they will be protected for blowing the whistle. </p>
<p>Added to this, is that there are several other statutes in South Africa that govern whistleblowing. These include the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">Constitution</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act66-1995labourrelations.pdf">Labour Relations Act</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/prevention-and-combating-corrupt-activities-act-0">Prevention and Combating of Corrupt Activities Act</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/national-environmental-management-act">National Environmental Management Act</a>, to name a few. </p>
<p>This creates a confusing web for whistleblowers to navigate and results in inconsistent protection. </p>
<h2>Improving protection</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368554917_A_Critical_Analysis_of_the_Corporate_Whistleblowing_Provisions_of_the_South_African_Companies_Act">In my view</a>, South Africa should have one consolidated legislative framework governing whistleblowing. This will make whistleblower laws clear and consistent. It will also make them more accessible and visible.</p>
<p>Protection <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368554917_A_Critical_Analysis_of_the_Corporate_Whistleblowing_Provisions_of_the_South_African_Companies_Act">can also be broadened, as I’ve suggested</a>, by protecting a corporate whistleblower for three years after they’ve left a company. The three-year limit will encourage whistleblowers to disclose the wrongdoing within a reasonable time after leaving their positions. In addition, any evidence will still be accessible. </p>
<p>In addition, there must be better protection for whistleblowers from victimisation, which should be a criminal offence under the Companies Act. </p>
<p>Whistleblowers should be allowed to claim compensation from anyone who causes them harm – physically as well as psychologically. There have been many <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-04-22-treated-like-a-leper-mosilo-mothepu-relates-the-cost-of-being-a-whistle-blower">reports</a> of whistleblowers who have been ostracised, suffered panic attacks, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder or anxiety after exposing corporate corruption.</p>
<p>In South Africa, it is vital to provide physical protection to whistleblowers. There have been several reports of <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/johann-van-loggerenberg-burgled-conspiracy-suspected">intimidation of whistleblowers</a>. Some whistleblowers had to <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/whistle-blower-athol-williams-health-suffers-after-exposing-pariah-bain-and-co-75ada81f-bff5-4cd9-81d7-2c43a62ddc36">flee South Africa</a> because <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/saps-whistleblower-patricia-mashale-flees-sa">they feared for their safety</a>. Another whistleblower was <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-08-24-whistle-blower-slain-after-dropping-her-child-at-school-siu-confirms-babita-deokaran-was-a-witness-in-the-r332m-ppe-scandal">assassinated</a> after exposing corruption linked to COVID-19 personal protective equipment. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://www.sajr.co.za/sa-dangerous-place-for-whistle-blowers-as-de-ruyter-case-shows/">reported</a> that former <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a> CEO Andre de Ruyter <a href="https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/467736/i-think-de-ruyter-is-at-risk-his-family-probably-too-he-needs-to-take-care">may be at personal risk</a>. He effectively became a whistleblower at Eskom after a <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/de-ruyters-interview-was-an-act-of-whistle-blowing-says-yelland/">television interview</a>. In the interview, De Ruyter alleged that there is rampant corruption at Eskom, and that a senior <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">ANC</a> minister is <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/de-ruyters-interview-was-an-act-of-whistle-blowing-says-yelland/">involved in criminal activities at the power utility</a> with the knowledge of other senior party leaders. </p>
<p>The ANC has denied this and <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/political-parties/eskom-de-ruyter-served-with-court-papers-for-making-allegations-without-any-shred-of-evidence-mbalula-20230303">served court papers on De Ruyter</a> that required him to provide evidence within seven days to back up his <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/anc-serves-legal-papers-de-ruyter-over-corruption-allegations">allegations of corruption</a>.</p>
<p>Once whistleblowers disclose their identity, it should be mandatory for adequate physical protection to be provided to them and their families. </p>
<p>Whistleblowers should be given the choice to make disclosures confidentially or anonymously under the Companies Act. Their identity should also be protected in court matters.</p>
<p>The Companies Act does not give financial incentives to whistleblowers for making disclosures that lead to successful resolutions of matters. Financial rewards are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368554917_A_Critical_Analysis_of_the_Corporate_Whistleblowing_Provisions_of_the_South_African_Companies_Act">controversial</a>. They encourage whistleblowers to speak up about corruption and reduce the financial risks they face. But they also raise moral and ethical concerns, and may encourage false reports.</p>
<p>In my view, corporate whistleblowers should be rewarded for disclosures they make which lead to successful resolutions. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368554917_A_Critical_Analysis_of_the_Corporate_Whistleblowing_Provisions_of_the_South_African_Companies_Act">In my research</a> I found that the benefits of financial rewards may outweigh the misgivings about it given the very high level of corporate corruption in South Africa. </p>
<p>Whistleblowers are not traitors but courageous people who choose to take action against wrongdoing rather than taking the easy route and keeping quiet. An urgent review of the Companies Act is needed to strengthen the protection of corporate whistleblowers, and to promote a culture of accountability and integrity, which is currently lacking in South Africa.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rehana Cassim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africa’s laws designed to protect whistleblowers need urgent reform.Rehana Cassim, Professor in Company Law, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015082023-03-14T14:26:31Z2023-03-14T14:26:31ZExplosive revelations about South Africa’s power utility: why new electricity minister should heed the words of former Eskom CEO<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514869/original/file-20230313-22-qqk3ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The entrance to South Africa's coal-fired Tutuka power plant operated by Eskom. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marco LongarI/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A month ago South Africans heard some hard truths about the state of the power utility, Eskom, from the outgoing CEO André de Ruyter. In an <a href="https://smilefm.co.za/de-ruyter-to-leave-eskom-with-immediate-effect-following-explosive-interview/">interview broadcast on television</a>, De Ruyter made accusations about the role of criminal gangs as well as politicians in corruption that’s crippled the utility. The interview triggered his <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/outgoing-eskom-ceo-andre-de-ruyter-leaves-immediate-effect">immediate departure </a> – he was due to leave some weeks later – as the ruling African National Congress <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/investing/481469-anc-and-eskom-board-attack-andre-de-ruyter.html">rounded on him</a>.</p>
<p>But, in my view, South Africans – particularly the <a href="https://mg.co.za/news/2023-03-06-kgosientsho-ramokgopa-gets-green-light-for-minister-of-electricity/">new Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa</a> – would be well advised to look more carefully at what De Ruyter said, rather than trying to discredit the messenger.</p>
<p>De Ruyter outlined four levels at which Eskom is being destroyed.</p>
<p>Firstly, there is the issue of a lack of political support from Cabinet for a renewal strategy for Eskom which De Ruyter attempted to implement. The plan included dealing with crime, separating the existing entity into three different companies (generation, transmission and distribution) and over time, decarbonising energy generation. Effectively this meant, over time, closing coal-fired power stations and replacing them with renewable energy storage capability.</p>
<p>Secondly, De Ruyter outlined how Eskom continues to be infiltrated by systematic corruption involving private individuals and companies using public assets for personal gain. The pattern of <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.25159/2663-6549/6314">state capture</a> began in earnest under the presidency of Jacob Zuma but these players have continued to hold onto powerful interests within the company, including contracts for coal, construction and maintenance. They are principally rent-seekers, and extract money for no added value.</p>
<p>Thirdly, there is organised crime. These groups are distinct from the agents of state capture. They control how money flows as well as the operations of several power stations. For instance, Eskom has lost control of Tutuka, one of the bigger coal-fired power stations that should be generating at least three GW (12% of the total demand). Yet energy availability from the plant is now an <a href="https://www.georgeherald.com/News/Article/National/tutuka-plant-manager-continues-to-wear-bulletproof-vest-family-protected-by-bodyguards-de-ruyter-202301240300">eye-watering 12%</a> of its capacity.</p>
<p>Finally, De Ruyter identified intentional malfunction and petty crime as a major threat. Anyone who can break the law does so without consequence.</p>
<p>Much of the resource and power that are necessary to solve problems at all four levels are in the Minister of Electricity’s or government’s control. He needs to get Cabinet behind a renewal strategy that aligns with the global energy transition, he needs to get the police to do their job with competence, and he needs a powerful CEO who has local legitimacy and support. </p>
<p>And he needs to act immediately. </p>
<h2>The depth of the crisis</h2>
<p>South Africa’s electricity supply crisis has never been more severe. This is clear from the data that Eskom publishes on its data portal.</p>
<p>Power cuts – known locally as loadshedding – have now risen to 15% of total demand. This means that, on average, embattled customers are without power for at least 5.5 hours for each 24 hour cycle (see figure below). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514877/original/file-20230313-26-suiocr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Richard Walwyn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the figure shows, loadshedding rises every month, with February being the worst on record ever.</p>
<p>(The data in the graph is based on actual dispatched generation versus the anticipated demand, where the latter is obtained by Eskom from historical patterns of use.)</p>
<p>Just when South Africans had hoped that the situation could improve, it deteriorated. In May last year, loadshedding was a 2% of the total demand. At the time they still had confidence in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ability to solve the crisis with his <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-26-here-it-is-ramaphosas-energy-action-plan-to-end-sas-rolling-blackouts/">six-point action plan</a>. </p>
<p>Since then the country has endured a string of broken promises, heard explosive revelations from the De Ruyter interview and witnessed the further collapse of the coal fleet.</p>
<p>The longer the crisis lasts, the more Eskom’s energy market will shrink. Using the data from the last few years, it is possible to model what is happening to energy demand and what could happen in the future.</p>
<p>About nine GW of Eskom’s customer base are <a href="https://mg.co.za/news/2023-02-28-hospitals-exempt-from-load-shedding-as-new-disaster-regulations-take-effect/.">untouchable</a> – these customers are unaffected by Eskom and unlikely to source alternative supply. We also know that about <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/embedded-generation-project-pipeline-stands-at-9-gw-ramaphosa-2022-11-28">nine GW of demand</a> mainly allocated to the Energy Intensive Users Group, will be replaced by in-house generation over the next two to three years. </p>
<p>Combined with the growing use of rooftop solar in residential and commercial buildings, my prediction, based on my modelling studies, is that by March 2026, the shifted demand will be 11 GW, leaving a residual demand on the national grid at 14 GW, or about 40% of the average demand in 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514878/original/file-20230313-20-dsr285.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Richard Walwyn</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>If Eskom cannot sell the electricity that it generates, operating costs will quickly outstrip revenue. The challenge is therefore not only to rebuild generation, but also to keep high value customers, who are <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/01/23/south-africas-pipeline-of-unsubsidized-pv-projects-hits-9-gw/">switching to solar</a>. </p>
<h2>What will help</h2>
<p>All eyes are on the new Minister of Electricity. Does he have the skills, energy and political influence to resolve the energy crisis? Or will his appointment further obfuscate an already incoherent portfolio?</p>
<p>Minister Ramokgopa needs to add three important tasks to his programme of action. He needs to learn from the De Ruyter interview (and address the problems he identified), he needs to rapidly unbundle Eskom and he needs to solve problems that are delaying the implementation of the renewable energy programme.</p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-enoch-godongwana-2023-budget-speech-22-feb-2023-0000">budget speech</a>, Minister Enoch Godongwana made it clear that the establishment of the National Transmission Company of South Africa is a priority. Although National Treasury will borrow R254 billion to refloat Eskom, the funds can only be used to secure and extend the assets of the transmission company. The implications of this position are clear – sell off the generation capacity to private investors and leave distribution to local authorities, where this is possible. </p>
<p>One aspect of the De Ruyter interview which has been largely ignored is the issue of the renewable energy programme and how this has been derailed despite its obvious benefits in terms of lower energy cost and minimal water usage. As De Ruyter mentioned, if the programme had remained on track, South Africa would have avoided 98% of the 2022 loadshedding.</p>
<p>In addition, the closure of several Eskom coal-fired water-cooled power stations will release billions of litres of water for use in domestic applications, savings which will become essential for a water-scarce country. Closure of these stations will also deal with the air quality concerns and the ongoing breaches by Eskom of its emissions permits.</p>
<p>It is apparent, now, that nothing will save Eskom in its present configuration. It will join a list of state-owned entities that are a fraction of their former scale – the Post Office, South African Airways, the Passenger Rail Association of South Africa. </p>
<p>How far it sinks will depend on how effective Minister Ramokgopa can be in his new position.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201508/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Richard Walwyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nothing will save Eskom in its present configuration.David Richard Walwyn, Professor of Technology Management, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011102023-03-08T08:19:44Z2023-03-08T08:19:44ZPower cuts: South Africa’s state of disaster is being contested in court - COVID rulings give clues as to the outcome<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513911/original/file-20230307-26-zxg9ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrations against South African power supplier ESKOM in 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has declared <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202302/48152rg11550gon3095.pdf">a second national state of disaster</a> in less than three years. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202003/43096gon313.pdf">The first</a> was the COVID-19 disaster declaration in March 2020. This allowed the government to pass sweeping lockdown regulations that encroached on human rights – directly and indirectly - including the rights to dignity, privacy, freedom and security of the person and the right to choose and practise a trade or occupation freely. </p>
<p>More recently it issued another disaster declaration in response to the country’s severe electricity supply constraints. The country is experiencing the <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/630667/south-africas-horror-year-of-load-shedding-heres-how-it-compares/">worst power cuts on record</a> as the national utility, Eskom, implements longer and more frequent scheduled blackouts, referred to as loadshedding. The outages are having severe social, economic and ecological effects. The declaration aims to address the effects of the power outages and to avert the possible progression to a “total blackout”.</p>
<p>These loadshedding regulations are not likely to encroach on human rights to the same extent as the COVID measures did as they do not restrict movement or trade. </p>
<p>But they come at a time when memory of the overreach of the lockdown regulations is still fresh. Citizens are also enraged at the government’s failure to deal with a 15-year-old electricity crisis and worsening corruption which contributed to it. </p>
<p>The regulations in response to the pandemic were challenged in a number of court cases. Two (involving three decisions) challenged the prohibition of the sale of tobacco products. <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZAGPPHC/2020/246.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20cigarette%26%2365533%3B">One case was brought by the Fair-Trade Independent Tobacco Association</a>. It was heard in the Pretoria High Court. Another was brought by <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZAWCHC/2020/180.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20cigarette%26%2365533%3B">British American Tobacco (BAT)</a>. This case was heard first in the Western Cape High Court and <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZASCA/2022/89.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20tobacco">subsequently in the Supreme Court of Appeal</a>.</p>
<p>The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs was a respondent in both cases.</p>
<p>All the cases engaged with arguments relating to the principle of legality, which underlies South Africa’s constitutional democracy. (The <a href="https://theconversation.com/rule-of-law-has-moved-centre-stage-in-lockdown-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters-139045**%20is%20a%20foundational%20constitutional%20value.">rule of law</a> guards against the arbitrary exercise of state power, because it requires a rational relationship between the exercise of government power and the purpose for which such power is exercised (the “rational connection” test).</p>
<p>The way in which the courts dealt with legality in the COVID-19 tobacco cases will bind other courts in their deliberations on the same or similar issues. This is in line with the principle of judicial precedent.</p>
<p>At <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2023-02-14-da-goes-to-court-to-stop-declaration-of-state-of-disaster-on-eskom/">least</a> <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/electricity-crisis-solidarity-heads-to-court-to-have-state-of-disaster-declared-unlawful-20230214">three</a> <a href="https://www.outa.co.za/blog/newsroom-1/post/outa-goes-to-court-to-overturn-the-electricity-state-of-disaster-1234">organisations</a> have announced that they will challenge the latest disaster declaration in court. </p>
<p>Based on the COVID-19 tobacco cases, the courts considering challenges to the load-shedding disaster will need to decide whether there is a “necessary and objective connection” between the steps government has taken and what it aims to achieve. This sets a high standard of proof for the government. </p>
<h2>The arguments</h2>
<p>But a legal challenge to the load-shedding declaration or regulations is not restricted to an argument based on legality. The organisations challenging them could argue, for example, that the definition of “disaster” in the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/disaster-management-act">Disaster Management Act</a> does not extend to a government-caused load-shedding crisis. They could argue that other legislation should be used to deal with the electricity crisis.</p>
<p>However, as argued elsewhere, these arguments <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/unpacking-disaster-declaration-part-ii-does-serve-legitimate-field/?trackingId=37igS%2BgLsYc%2F2YVWp2V2Ow%3D%3D">may not succeed</a>.</p>
<p>Organisations may also rely on infringement of human rights as a cause of action. But this is unlikely to hold water as the measures proposed in the load-shedding declarations are not restrictive in the sense that the lockdown regulations were.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding these other possible approaches, a cause of action based on legality is likely to feature strongly in the forthcoming cases. Courts will be asked to determine the rational connection between the declaration and its regulations and the overarching legitimate government purpose (alleviating, for example, the effects of the power cuts).</p>
<p>There could, however, be different interpretations of the quality of rationality required, particularly if the minister relies heavily on section 27(2)(n) of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/disaster-management-act">disaster management law</a>. This section allows her to make regulations or issue directions concerning “other steps that may be necessary to prevent an escalation of the disaster”. </p>
<p>Because load-shedding is not a disaster in the ordinary sense, this particular power arguably underlies many of the measures in the new regulations.</p>
<p>In the COVID tobacco cases, the courts considered the quality of rationality required for the exercise of powers in section 27.</p>
<p>The Fair Trade court was sympathetic towards the executive. Its judgement set a low bar for the Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs to prove that her decision to ban the sale of tobacco products was rational. It held that to prove the rational relationship between tobacco prohibition and the government purpose (to protect human life and health and reduce potential strain on the healthcare system), the minister needed only to show a “sufficient rational basis” for her action. </p>
<p>The evidence on which she relied did not have to cogently and conclusively
establish a direct link between tobacco prohibition and the stated government purpose. </p>
<p>In taking this stance, the court in the Fair Trade case opted for a broad interpretation of the word “necessary” in section 27(2)(n).</p>
<p>The courts in the BAT cases took a different view and set the bar much higher. The Western Cape High Court disagreed with the Fair Trade court, and held that the Constitutional Court’s approach in <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2015/10.html">Pheko & Others v Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality</a> applied. In the Pheko case (which dealt with the declaration of a local, and not a national, disaster), the Constitutional Court held that the use of “necessary” in the similarly worded section 55 of the Disaster Management Act had to be given a narrow construction.</p>
<p>In the BAT case, the High Court <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZAWCHC/2020/180.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20cigarette%26%2365533%3B">held that</a> the minister had to show that the regulation was necessary, and not merely sufficiently rational. Courts also needed to assess this evidence objectively, not on the basis of whether the minister subjectively believed a measure was necessary. </p>
<p>Using this test, the court declared the tobacco prohibition invalid.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court of Appeal confirmed the stance of the Western Cape High Court, and thus over-ruled the approach in Fair Trade. </p>
<p>As court challenges to the load-shedding disaster declaration and its regulations mount, parties should take note that the higher bar of a necessary and objective connection set out in Pheko and the BAT cases applies. Challengers will have to prove that there is no necessary and objective connection between government’s action and its purpose, even if the minister thinks there is. The legality of the load-shedding declaration and its implementing regulations will stand or fall on the basis of this test.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy-Lynn Field receives funding from the National Research Foundation. She is affiliated with the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) as board chair and non-executive director. The CER champions the constitutional environmental right and is currently involved in litigation against Mineral Commodities Ltd in relation to its heavy mineral sands operations on South Africa's west coast.</span></em></p>South Africa’s courts are likely to set a high bar in cases brought against the government’s most recent state of disaster declaration.Tracy-Lynn Field, Professor of Environmental and Sustainability Law, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004902023-02-23T12:35:41Z2023-02-23T12:35:41ZSouth Africa’s bailout of Eskom won’t end power cuts: splitting up the utility can, as other countries have shown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511919/original/file-20230223-2271-xuao0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The announcement by the South African finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, of <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20Budget/2023/review/Annexure%20W3.pdf">debt relief</a> for the country’s troubled power utility, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, is a step forward. It will fix one problem: Eskom has too much debt. But the plan won’t end power cuts which <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2023/speech/speech.pdf#page=9">have worsened in recent years</a>. </p>
<p>The international experience is that one way to end electricity shortages is to allow competitively-priced privately-funded generation at scale. This requires a reorganisation of South Africa’s electricity market <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201910/roadmap-eskom.pdf">along the lines announced</a> by the Department of Public Enterprises nearly four years ago. The crux of the plan was to split Eskom into three separate units – generation, transmission and distribution, with transmission remaining state-owned.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2023/speech/speech.pdf#page=10">announced conditions</a>, which include the requirement that Eskom prioritise capital expenditure in transmission and distribution during the debt-relief period, the finance minister has missed an opportunity to finally achieve this.</p>
<h2>What we can learn from other countries</h2>
<p>Other countries that have had power cuts offer South Africa lessons. China, for example, faced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/dec/05/china.jonathanwatts">rolling blackouts</a> between 2003 and 2006 because of <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/chinaperspectives/2783">an unexpected growth spurt</a>. In 2015, <a href="https://greekreporter.com/2015/04/28/nationwide-blackout-in-greek-tv-this-morning/">Greece</a> was in the middle of a financial crisis and its people could not afford the electricity supply, some of which came through a complex deal with Russia. And in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/911b4884559dc01ae604ce187c39c9ba">Colombia</a>, a drought in 1992 caused the main source of electricity supply – which came from a hydroelectric plant – to literally dry up.</p>
<p>All these countries experienced power cuts. But South Africa is the only country to have had <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">power shortages for 15 years</a>. This is because the others moved quickly to rejig their electricity supply systems. </p>
<p>All three countries followed a similar route, as have many others. They untangled their single electricity companies, focusing on keeping parts of it under state control and opening up the rest to a mix of state and private companies.</p>
<h2>Complex to manage</h2>
<p>The electricity supply system has three parts. First is generation – generating electricity at a power plant. Second is transmission – moving it from the power plant to the municipality, usually on a high voltage line. Finally, distribution is about getting it the last few metres to a house or factory.</p>
<p>High-voltage transmission is what economists call a “natural monopoly”. It is more efficient if there is a single electricity grid for an area, rather than multiple grids. This part is best managed by a central body – in many countries a state-owned company. Because the transmission business can recover costs, it can use that income to increase transmission capacity, <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/only-six-solar-projects-advance-to-preferred-bidder-status-following-latest-renewables-round-2022-12-08/rep_id:4136">something that is urgently needed</a>. </p>
<p>But China, Colombia and Greece all recognised that generation no longer needs to be a monopoly. Actually a monopoly in generation is bad for all the same reasons that all monopolies are bad. They typically charge more and produce less. You need a complicated regulatory system to get their prices right. Smaller generation companies are easier to manage.</p>
<p>Distribution is best left to a company as close to the end user as possible – in almost all countries, that is the municipality. In South Africa, it is a mix. For example, <a href="https://www.citypower.co.za/Pages/default.aspx">City Power</a> distributes electricity to customers in older parts of Johannesburg. But Eskom distributes electricity direct in outlying parts of the metros. </p>
<p>This means that Eskom has to do everything: generate electricity, transmit it on large power lines to the cities and then distribute it to individual customers. It is a “vertical monopoly”. This makes it a fiendishly complex company to manage. Very few countries have such an arrangement – most prefer to allow specialist businesses in each part of the system.</p>
<h2>Lessons for South Africa</h2>
<p>Here’s what happened when generation was untangled from the rest of the state-owned monopoly in China. Between 2003 and 2006, <a href="https://www.powermag.com/china-wrestles-with-power-shortages/">new generation companies</a> added over 237,500 MW to the Chinese grid. That’s the equivalent of delivering nearly 10 Eskoms in three years.</p>
<p>In 2019, the Department of Public Enterprises <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201910/roadmap-eskom.pdf">published a detailed and clear roadmap</a> to follow this route, separating Eskom into generation, transmission and distribution. Internally, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/">Eskom is already structured that way</a>. On 17 December 2021, the legally binding merger agreement was executed to transfer transmission to the <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/medium-term-budget-policy-statement-unbundling-of-transmission-division/">National Transmission Company South Africa SOC Limited</a>.</p>
<p>But the very last step has not been taken, despite being <a href="https://www.energy.gov.za/files/policies/whitepaper_energypolicy_1998.pdf">government policy since 1998</a>. Every time the proposed separation comes closer to happening, there has been fierce resistance <a href="https://www.gtac.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Why-Lights-Went-Out-Politics-Institutions-and-Electricity-Reform.pdf">from both unions and Eskom management</a>. In 2018, it was because of loadshedding. During the years when there was no loadshedding and plants were being run too hard, it was because it was not urgent. And since the current electricity crisis, it is because there is loadshedding and Eskom <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/south-africa-transmission-firm-seen-hobbled-by-eskom-millstone-2022-06-21">is not financially viable</a>. But it is precisely because Eskom is in financial distress that the separation needs to be accelerated.</p>
<p>In 2023, two things make it possible to do the separation very quickly.</p>
<p>The first is <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/resignation-of-eskom-group-chief-executive/">a new CEO</a>. If the government is serious about the separation, as it has regularly said it is, it doesn’t make sense to appoint a single new CEO. Separate CEOs should be appointed for the National Transmission Company and for the other businesses. An independent board of directors for the transmission company should also be appointed.</p>
<p>The second is a technical issue related to Eskom’s debt. At the moment, Eskom as a whole is liable for the Eskom debt. The debt holders need to consent to any change in the legal structure.</p>
<p>The national treasury has announced that approximately <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/legislation/bills/2023/%5BB5-2023%5D%20(Eskom%20Debt%20Relief).pdf">R254 billion (about US$14 billion) of Eskom debt</a> will be transferred to the national balance sheet in tranches over the next three years. Debt holders can be asked to approve the transfer of debt and the final piece of the restructuring at the same time. The legal and technical work has all been done – the National Transmission Company exists, and it just needs life and capital. It would have been far better to use the R254 billion (about US$14 billion) to help capitalise this critical new company.</p>
<p>Most debt holders will jump at the chance – certainty on the long promised new structure as it will go a long way to fix energy problems in the country. Also, it will improve the chances that debt holders will get their interest payments on the debt that isn’t transferred.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20Budget/2023/review/Annexure%20W3.pdf#page=4">the conditions</a> that the national treasury has announced do not include the final unbundling. There is still an opportunity – the government’s conditions still have to be finalised. Eskom’s unbundling is one of the priorities of <a href="https://www.stateofthenation.gov.za/operation-vulindlela/electricity-sector">Operation Vulindlela</a>, a joint initiative of the presidency and national treasury aimed at accelerating structural reforms and measures that can support economic recovery.</p>
<p>Hopefully the government will learn from the international experience and use the R254 billion (about US$14 billion) to fundamentally fix the problem of a vertically integrated, inefficient and ineffective monopoly. And with that, end power cuts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roy Havemann is at the Western Cape Treasury and was previously at National Treasury, He writes in his personal capacity. </span></em></p>South Africa’s minister of finance should have used the bailout of Eskom to fast-track its split and introduce the private sector into the electricity sector.Roy Havemann, Research Associate, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002882023-02-22T14:14:41Z2023-02-22T14:14:41ZSouth Africa’s power crisis: going off the grid works for the wealthy – but could deepen injustice for the poor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511379/original/file-20230221-22-y6ygjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C565%2C4168%2C2225&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A view of Johannesburg's Braamfontein district seconds after a scheduled power cut.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Marco Longar/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s current electricity crisis has been described as “<a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/659093/eskoms-worst-performing-power-station-where-workers-fear-for-their-life/">a perfect storm</a>”. A number of factors have converged to reach this point: an ageing and inadequately maintained fleet of coal power stations, <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/12/08/eskom-delays-maintenance-of-koeberg-nuclear-power-station-s-unit-one">delays</a> in upgrading the Koeberg nuclear power station and significant failures at the recently built <a href="https://mg.co.za/news/2022-09-29-energy-crisis-another-r33-billion-needed-to-complete-medupi-and-kusile/">Medupi and Kusile</a> coal power stations. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of 2022, power utility Eskom’s inability to meet the country’s electricity demand has resulted in unprecedented loadshedding (scheduled power cuts). In 2022, electricity interruptions totalled <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/can-adding-rooftop-solar-really-move-the-loadshedding-needle-2023-02-14">3,775 hours over 205 days</a>. The situation almost certainly will not improve any time soon.</p>
<p>At the same time, Gauteng – South Africa’s most populous province and its economic hub – has experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">critical water supply issues</a>. In late 2022 and early 2023, the combined impact of heat waves, intermittent pumping of water because of electricity interruptions and infrastructure failure has led to demand outstripping water supply. Residents of Gauteng’s biggest municipalities have experienced near-daily low water pressure or water cuts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country's water system</a>
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<p>Many private individuals and businesses are investing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-power-backup-systems-electrical-engineers-answer-your-questions-199808">alternative electricity</a> and water sources. The exact number is uncertain – most systems are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-silent-revolution-those-with-cash-go-solar-2022-08-15/">not registered</a>. Alternative investments include water tanks, boreholes, solar panels and diesel generators. These solutions cost anywhere from R4,000 (about US$220) for rainwater tanks and <a href="https://www.aquify.co.za/borehole-cost/">up to R180,000</a> (almost US$10,000) for a borehole. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-power-backup-systems-electrical-engineers-answer-your-questions-199808">cost of installing</a> residential solar panels is anywhere from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Inverters and batteries are also pricey. Even with financing options, most households can’t afford alternatives.</p>
<p>These investments are generally efforts to maintain a level of normality and to survive through unreliable water and electricity supply. But the cumulative effect of these individual actions could have significant consequences for inequality and service provision for the poor. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/09/new-world-bank-report-assesses-sources-of-inequality-in-five-countries-in-southern-africa">South Africa is already one of the most unequal countries in the world</a>.</p>
<p>Poor people are less able to afford alternatives for power and water. There’s also the risk that municipalities will gradually be unable to cross-subsidise services to the poor as they lose revenue from wealthy consumers.</p>
<p>Social justice considerations have been at the forefront of South Africa’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework">just transition</a> from coal-based to renewable electricity generation. But this has largely focused on the labour force and affected communities. Less attention has been paid to the justice implications of electricity distribution.</p>
<p>Despite the potential negative consequences of private investments in off-grid water and electricity, these could be mobilised to help address the current crises rather than exacerbate it. However, this requires re-imagining the role of the state and citizens, reworking municipal funding models, and encouraging private investors to support the grid in various ways.</p>
<h2>What do the Quality of Life data tell us?</h2>
<p>In early February 2023 we used survey data from 2013 to 2021 to show how Gauteng households were investing in alternative electricity and water provision. We examined who was accessing these alternative sources and who was not. </p>
<p>The data for this project was drawn from the <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/">Gauteng City-Region Observatory</a> (GCRO)‘s regular Quality of Life survey, which is designed to gather a representative sample of Gauteng residents. It includes questions about demographics, living conditions and socio-economic circumstances. All the datasets are freely available to download through the University of Cape Town’s <a href="https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/GCRO/?page=1&sort_by=title&sort_order=asc&ps=15&repo=GCRO">DataFirst</a> platform.</p>
<p>The data reveal that access to alternative electricity and water sources has increased over time. In 2013/14, only 0.8% of residents reported having access to solar or wind energy, while 0.3% had a generator.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household access to alternative electricity and water sources is increasing over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
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<p>By 2020/21, these figures had jumped to 5% and 4%, respectively. Despite this increase, only a small minority of Gauteng residents (about 1 in 20) have access to alternative water and electricity. </p>
<p>Affluent households are proportionately more likely to invest in alternative electricity and water sources than poorer households. In 2020/21, 2% of respondents with a monthly household income below R3,201 (around US$177) had a rainwater tank. Some 4% of this income group had a borehole or well. In contrast, 9% of the respondents in the higher income groups – a monthly household income over R25,600 (about US$1,415) – had access to a rainwater tank or borehole. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Affluent households are more likely to have access to alternative water sources than poor households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The uneven increase in access to alternative electricity is particularly notable. Access to solar power grew from 0.3% in 2015/16 to 3% in 2020/21 for households earning less than R800/month. For the highest income group (monthly household income more than R51,200), access to solar increased from 4% to 12% over the same period. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over time, wealthier households have accessed alternative electricity substantially more than poorer households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for a just transition</h2>
<p>The gap is clearly widening between affluent households who can shield themselves from electricity and water interruptions, and poorer households who cannot afford to do so. </p>
<p>And this gap could widen further because of how municipal services are financed. Under the current funding model, municipalities depend on revenue from basic service provision (electricity, water and refuse) to fund their mandated activities. They use the revenue from industries, businesses and wealthy consumers to cross-subsidise services for the poor. </p>
<p>This model has been <a href="https://www.polity.org.za/article/same-old-funding-model-cant-keep-south-african-cities-going-or-serve-residents-2021-08-13">critiqued</a> for being unsustainable and creating perverse incentives for municipalities to elevate tariffs and encourage high users to keep consuming electricity. But it at least ensures access to services for poor households.</p>
<p>The current move by residents and businesses towards self-generated electricity has potentially dire consequences for municipalities’ ability to ensure fiscal stability and equitable access to services.</p>
<p>It also has some technical drawbacks. Private investments have the potential to add strain and complexity to the grid. Grid-charged battery systems increase electricity consumption and post-loadshedding peaks. Solar photovoltaic installations reduce pressure on the grid during the day. But, they leave the evening peak unchanged. Power plants must continue producing electricity in excess during the daytime demand to ensure they can meet the evening peak. </p>
<p>Private borehole installations could cause uneven depletion of aquifers. They could also negatively affect groundwater management and undermine the availability of these water resources for broader society. </p>
<h2>Mobilising private investments</h2>
<p>However, there are opportunities to harness private investments to cope with the current electricity and potential future water crises.</p>
<p>Municipalities are beginning to give households and businesses incentives to sell their excess power back to the grid. This could reduce the cost of electricity for municipalities, maximising their ability to cross-subsidise service delivery for the poor. </p>
<p>Where households and businesses have invested in batteries, they could store solar energy and sell it back to the grid during the evening peak.</p>
<p><em>In addition to the authors, the Off-grid Cities project team members include: Fiona Anciano, Charlotte Lemanski, Margot Rubin, Laurence Piper, SJ Cooper-Knock, Temba Middelmann, Brian Murahwa, Joanna Watterson, Eyong Tarh, Miguel Isaac and Zackeen Thomas.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article is an output of the Off-Grid Cities: Elite infrastructure secession and social justice project, which is funded by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 129484). The project is a partnership between the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO), the University of the Western Cape, the University of Cambridge, Cardiff University and the University of Sheffield, which explores the dynamics and implications of households and businesses investing in alternative water and electricity.</span></em></p>Very little attention has been paid to the justice implications of electricity distribution.Christina Culwick Fatti, Senior researcher, urban sustainability transitions, environmental governance and resilience, Gauteng City-Region ObservatorySamkelisiwe Khanyile, Researcher, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998082023-02-17T10:50:34Z2023-02-17T10:50:34ZHome power backup systems – electrical engineers answer your questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510817/original/file-20230217-25-kdw80u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africans are taking their power supply into their own hands with backup systems that don't rely on power utility Eskom.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s electricity utility Eskom has made it clear that “loadshedding” – rolling scheduled power cuts – <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/01/06/eskom-says-stage-3-and-4-load-shedding-pattern-to-continue-indefinitely">isn’t going to end any time soon</a>. This reality, and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement during his annual state of the nation speech on 9 February 2023 that <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-02-09-ramaphosas-tax-incentives-a-ray-of-light-for-solar-panel-roll-out-to-ease-sas-energy-crisis/">tax incentives for solar power use</a> are imminent, mean that many people <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">are considering</a> alternative electricity supply systems for their homes.</p>
<p>But deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider, from the right kind of inverter to the size of your solar panels. </p>
<p>We are electrical engineers who are working on a standalone charger for small electric vehicles with the <a href="https://sanedi.org.za/">South African National Energy Development Institute</a> as part of the <a href="https://www.leap-re.eu/">Long-Term Joint European Union - African Union Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy</a>. The way the charger is designed resembles the sort of system needed for domestic power cut solutions. So, we’re able to answer a few questions for those who feel overwhelmed by the options. Our full and detailed instructions for designing a loadshedding system are <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UGY-cR-HHXbmjFXhyJVvWlrpax9CbAqw/view">available here</a>.</p>
<h2>What is an inverter?</h2>
<p>This is a key component of any alternative power system. It’s an electronic device that changes direct current (like energy stored in a battery) into alternating current (power for your home).</p>
<p>There are a few kinds of inverters. Some are grid-tied (synchronous) with Eskom’s power grid. They are typically used with solar systems that augment the Eskom supply. But they are not suitable for loadshedding solutions. </p>
<p>You also get off-grid (grid-forming) inverters, which form their own mini-grid and can operate during power cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small white box with wires coming out of it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An inverter system will look something like this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Suranto W/Shutterstock/Editorial use only</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>We recommend a hybrid inverter, which can be grid-tied to augment supply and seamlessly continue operation as an off-grid solution during loadshedding. You want a hybrid inverter that can connect to the grid, battery backup, and to solar panels. To extract the maximum power from the solar panels, be sure to get one that has maximum power point tracking (MPPT). </p>
<h2>What size should the system be?</h2>
<p>This purchase should be a long term investment. The inverter must be able to carry the sum of all the loads that are drawing power at any instant in time and the battery must be able to supply the energy required. </p>
<p>To reduce both the upfront capital cost and operational expenditure, you need to decide what is essential. Lights? Your washing machine? The stove and electric kettle? Then you need to make sure they are as energy efficient as possible before you size the backup system. For example, old incandescent lights use ten times more energy than LED lights do.</p>
<p>This table lists a few typical household items and their power consumption. </p>
<iframe title="[ Power and energy consumption of household appliances ]" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Oc5GY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oc5GY/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="896" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Why do I need batteries for my system?</h2>
<p>It is theoretically possible for an inverter to generate electricity for household use directly from solar panels. But the supply from panels is intermittent and often not powerful enough to reliably supply power to the varying loads in the house. </p>
<p>To overcome this problem, energy is stored in the batteries. This provides a more stable source of power which responds to demand during loadshedding.</p>
<p>Battery capacity is specified as kWh (kilowatt hours) or Ah (ampere hours). This determines the amount of energy it can supply. A battery with a capacity of 5kWh can theoretically supply 5kW for an hour. But if a lithium battery is discharged beyond 20% of its capacity, it loses capacity and ages faster. A 5kWh battery therefore has an effective capacity of only 4kWh. It can supply 4kW for one hour, or 1kW for four hours. </p>
<p>As a practical example, if you want to power only 20 10W LED lights and a medium sized LED TV, drawing a total of 0.5kW, a 3.5kWh battery will suffice for four hours. </p>
<h2>Are solar panels crucial for a backup system?</h2>
<p>No. The batteries store energy to provide a stable supply to the inverter when needed. Technically, you can use the mains power to charge the batteries, rather than rely on solar panels. Solar panels are merely there to augment the supply of electricity and could give you a bit more range during loadshedding if the sun is shining.</p>
<p>But if everyone installs backup systems without solar panels, we are just using batteries to carry us through power cuts. That increases the load on Eskom outside loadshedding periods, as the batteries must be replenished. This will neuter Eskom’s ability to use loadshedding as a grid management tool. It could <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">destabilise the grid and lead to a complete blackout</a>.</p>
<p>And if, <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/tax-breaks-for-rooftop-solar-experts-weigh-in-on-how-it-could-work-20230214">as is expected</a>, the finance minister introduces tax breaks for solar generation expenses in the budget speech on 22 February, solar panels will have to be part of your setup if you want to benefit from these incentives. </p>
<p>No matter what Enoch Godongwana announces, we think this is a good time to make the switch to a solar powered backup system, for your peace of mind and future savings.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">South Africa's power grid is under pressure: the how and the why</a>
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<h2>How much does it all cost?</h2>
<p>Inverter prices are falling as the market grows, and vary across suppliers. Inverters cost about R3,000 (about US$165) per kW for bottom of the range, and closer to R7,000 (about US$380) per kW for top of the range. Most households will get by with a 3kW to 5kW inverter, if its loads are managed well, costing between R9,000 (around $US490) and R35,000 (about US$1,915). </p>
<p>Lithium (LiFePO4) batteries also vary in cost but normally retail for about R5,000 (about US$270) to R7,000 per kWh. Most households will get by with a 5kWh to 10kWh battery if the loads are optimised and managed well. So you’re looking at a cost of between R25,000 (around US$1,370) and R70,000 (US$3,830 or so) for the batteries.</p>
<p>Solar panels tend to range from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Again, they’re not crucial, but are necessary if you want the system to pay for itself over time. </p>
<h2>Can I install this system myself?</h2>
<p>No, unless you’re a certified electrician. The inverter needs to be installed into the distribution board and the cost will depend on how many of your circuit breakers need to be moved to the backup as well as how easy the solution is to install; installation typically ranges from R10,000 to R20,000 (just about US$1100). The inverter must be approved by the municipality if you want to feed back into the grid. Installing the solar panels is separate, and costs vary widely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider.MJ (Thinus) Booysen, Professor in Engineering, Chair in the Internet of Things, Stellenbosch UniversityArnold Rix, Senior Lecturer, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1991062023-02-04T13:35:05Z2023-02-04T13:35:05ZRobberies surge as criminals take advantage of South Africa’s power outages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507867/original/file-20230202-7334-5x6ocd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The acute energy crisis in South Africa has adversely affected all aspects of the society. Regular and lengthy power outages – which started <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/history-in-decades/eskom-2003-2012/#:%7E:text=His%20low%2Dkey%20approach%20came,the%20integrity%20of%20the%20grid">in 2007</a> are also contributing to an escalation in the levels of criminal activity, especially street crime. The most recent <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/crimestats.php">quarterly crime statistics</a> – have undermined an <a href="https://mg.co.za/business/2023-01-21-blackouts-add-to-risk-of-recession/">ailing economy</a> and <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/load-shedding-impacting-food-security-sa/">food security</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/statement-minister-health-impact-loadshedding-provision-healthcare-services-and">health</a> and <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/education-sector-concerned-as-impact-of-load-shedding-cuts-down-valuable-teaching-studying-time-20220920#:%7E:text=%22Load%20shedding%20is%20disruptive%20to,reliant%20on%20technology%2C%20said%20Cembi.">educational</a> outcomes.</p>
<p>It has become evident that power cuts added to a significant increase in all robbery categories – for July to September 2022 – compared to the same period in 2021. This corresponded with the most severe power cuts the country had ever experienced.</p>
<p>In addition, the police service’s <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/Annual-Crime-2021_2022-web.pdf">annual crime data</a> for the period 2012/13-2021/22 shows there was a spike in robberies in 2015. This was a year of <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/470217-scary-load-shedding-statistic-revealed.html">more power cuts</a> (35 days) than previous years.</p>
<p>Based on claims data, <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/626974/increase-in-home-break-ins-during-longer-load-shedding-periods/">insurance companies</a> are suggesting a strong link between power cuts and property crime in wealthier areas. In addition, a growing number of <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-07-08-load-shedding-worsens-crimes-in-communities-cpfs/">reports</a> from both rich and poor parts of the country link power cuts to increases in interpersonal crime, particularly <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-06-criminals-are-enjoying-load-shedding-say-cape-town-communities-affected-by-crime/">robberies</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://sandtonchronicle.co.za/317525/stay-alert-with-these-load-shedding-safety-tips/">police</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCASycCNR6M">police minister</a> have publicly linked power cuts to robbery and other crimes in recent months. </p>
<p>So, how are the power cuts contributing to increases in robberies?</p>
<p>It is not possible to provide a definitive answer to this question as no rigorous studies showing causality between power cuts and robbery occurrence in the country have been undertaken. But one can look to crime prevention and policing theory, and studies from other countries, to provide insights into the possible link between power outages and robbery. This theory advocates that power outages (the power utility, Eskom, calls these “loadshedding”) undermine crime prevention measures. This is especially so at night as these measures are largely dependent on street lighting. Power outages also undermine the effectiveness of policing as patrols and other police services are curtailed.</p>
<h2>Electricity and crime</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.saferspaces.org.za/understand/entry/crime-prevention-through-environmental-design-cpted">crime prevention through environmental design theory</a> is helpful.</p>
<p>It uses two principal measures – target hardening; and surveillance and visibility.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.college.police.uk/guidance/neighbourhood-crime/interventions-situational-crime-prevention">Target hardening</a></strong> uses measures such as locked doors, gates, fencing, alarm systems, CCTV cameras and burglar bars in and around buildings to deter criminals. It is widely accepted in the <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/449230">criminology literature</a> that target hardening has the potential to reduce the risk of home invasions and business robberies in some contexts. These measures should ideally be combined with other crime prevention interventions. </p>
<p>In South Africa, <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/trending/587286/how-criminals-are-taking-advantage-of-increased-load-shedding-in-south-africa/">private security companies</a> have suggested that criminals have taken advantage of the fact that many home and business security systems are compromised during power outages. </p>
<p>Yet, robberies tend to be more prevalent in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Policing-and-Boundaries-in-a-Violent-Society-A-South-African-Case-Study/Lamb/p/book/9780367748142">poorer urban areas</a> in the country, where residents cannot afford to install such security systems. And most robberies take place in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00038-018-1129-z">public spaces</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-feeling-more-insecure-do-ramaphosas-plans-add-up-176991">South Africans are feeling more insecure: do Ramaphosa's plans add up?</a>
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<p><strong><a href="https://www.saferspaces.org.za/understand/entry/crime-prevention-through-environmental-design-cpted">Surveillance and visibility</a></strong> assumes that people are likely to be discouraged from robbing others in public spaces, where their actions will be clearly seen by others (“eyes on the street”) and they may be identified and caught by police.</p>
<p>This can include the presence of people in the area, either going about their normal daily activities or actively patrolling, and the presence of CCTV cameras. Lighting in public spaces, especially at night, is nonetheless an essential requirement for visibility and surveillance to be effective. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2004.tb00058.x?casa_token=D1oCV46o9fMAAAAA:Oxla0S7kylB_6vXk0XFOSrp9M-acEsmQKTDZl1NEf9WK2Z5L-Qlp-v7xiYEZ7PCExTOoLT67suQlVzI">Studies</a> from other countries have shown that street lighting and CCTV cameras are effective in reducing robberies. </p>
<p>Power outages, particularly at night, clearly undermine visibility. This is evident from the many <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-06-criminals-are-enjoying-load-shedding-say-cape-town-communities-affected-by-crime/">reports</a> of people being targeted by criminals while walking in the streets after dark.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country's water system</a>
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<p><a href="http://wikinight.free.fr/wp-content/uploads/Securite/Securite%20des%20biens%20et%20personnes/Preventing_Crime_what_works_what_doesn_t_what_s_promising.pdf#page=227">Systematic reviews</a> of policing research have shown that regular and visible police patrols, mainly when directed at crime hot spots, are an effective crime prevention intervention. Obviously, police cannot satisfactorily patrol at night during power outages. This makes the work of South Africa’s police more <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2022-09-22-police-have-got-injured-because-of-darkness-bheki-cele-says-about-load-shedding/">dangerous</a>. </p>
<p>In response to a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-question/98/">parliamentary question</a> about the impact of power outages on the work of the South African Police Service (SAPS), Bheki Cele, the police minister, responded that:</p>
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<p>(It) has an adverse effect on service delivery in the SAPS … on all communication and network operations, including the registering of case dockets … A number of stations cannot function at night because there are no lights … </p>
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<p>There have also been reports of some <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/security/467675-problems-crash-10111-emergency-call-centre-in-major-city.html">police emergency call centres</a> being uncontactable during power outages.</p>
<h2>No easy solutions</h2>
<p>There are no practical short- to medium-term crime prevention alternatives for the authorities to pursue during power outages, other than exempting high crime areas from the outages. That might not be possible in such a severe <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">electricity crisis</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eskom-ceo-quits-why-finding-a-new-head-for-south-africas-struggling-power-utility-wont-end-the-blackouts-196667">Eskom CEO quits: why finding a new head for South Africa's struggling power utility won't end the blackouts</a>
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<p>One positive development has been <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/weekend-argus/news/delft-residents-take-to-the-streets-as-crime-increases-during-load-shedding-9ed50a9e-36dd-4613-ba87-c93731ce1ae7">increased community patrols</a> in some areas. Regrettably, some of this community crime prevention work has led to acts of <a href="https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/463481/mec-urges-public-to-leave-justice-to-the-law-as-vigilante-attack-leaves-5-dead">vigilantism</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Lamb receives funding from Norwegian Research Council, the British Academy and FCDO . He is affiliated with South Africa's National Planning Commission. </span></em></p>Security companies suggest that criminals take advantage of the fact that many home and business security systems get compromised during power outages.Guy Lamb, Criminologist / Senior Lecturer, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1979242023-01-20T15:39:09Z2023-01-20T15:39:09ZPower cuts in South Africa: trend to get off the grid is gathering pace, but total independence is still a way off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505616/original/file-20230120-12-514why.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar powered water heaters on rooftops above shacks in the Alexandra township in Johannesburg, South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africans have been battered by power shortages <a href="https://mg.co.za/opinion/2023-01-16-focus-on-improving-the-energy-availability-factor-as-a-quick-win-to-stop-load-shedding/">for several years</a>. These have worsened to the point that towards the end of 2022 the country’s electricity utility, Eskom, had <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/these-four-charts-show-the-eskom-crisis-is-just-beginning/">only half of its power generation capacity operational</a>. </p>
<p>This has forced Eskom to escalate its rotational power cuts. By mid-January 2023, users were typically without electricity for 8 to 10 hours a day. The situation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-electricity-blackouts-are-set-to-continue-for-the-next-five-years-155233">unlikely to improve much in the short to medium term</a>. It’s expected that this year, especially as power demand increases in winter, the country’s electricity supply will decline to the point where <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2022-12-08-stage-8-load-shedding-on-the-cards-energy-expert-warns/">power may sometimes be available for only 12 hours a day</a>.</p>
<p>Nor is the situation expected to improve in the medium to long term. The national electricity utility is in a <a href="https://mg.co.za/business/2022-12-23-eskom-debt-down-r5-5bn-but-balance-sheet-pressure-is-high/">precarious financial situation</a>.</p>
<p>The result is that South Africans are increasingly being forced to explore alternative sources of electricity. From big companies down to small households, entities are even considering whether it is possible to disconnect from the Eskom grid entirely and produce all their electricity in-house.</p>
<p>Fifteen years ago South Africans had access to abundant electricity at <a href="https://poweroptimal.com/350-increase-decade-expensive-electricity-south-africa-compared-countries/">some of the cheapest pricing</a> in the world. But since then electricity tariffs have skyrocketed at an average of <a href="https://poweroptimal.com/2021-update-eskom-tariff-increases-vs-inflation-since-1988/">four times the inflation rate</a>.</p>
<p>Factories, mines, farms, businesses and individuals are now choosing to reduce their dependence on Eskom’s network by supplementing their electricity with in-house power generation. While this lowers demand on the Eskom power supply, the level at which this has been happening so far is insufficient to substantially reduce power cuts. The construction of <a href="https://furtherafrica.com/2022/06/17/5-south-africa-mining-companies-adopting-solar-energy/">larger private solar plants</a>, already initiated by some bigger entities, as well as the <a href="https://mg.co.za/environment/2022-07-04-incredible-growth-in-rooftop-solar-in-south-africa/">growing interest in rooftop solar</a> in residential areas, will gradually be felt. But this too will not stop power cuts completely.</p>
<p>Some entities may go as far as cutting themselves off from Eskom entirely. How feasible is this?</p>
<h2>The obstacles</h2>
<p>Getting by without a connection to the national electricity grid is not new to many South Africans. The apartheid government deliberately slowed electrification of black residential areas and especially of the country’s rural areas. Where there was electricity supply far from the urban centres, it was largely arranged for the benefit of mining operations and white farming communities.</p>
<p>In the 1990s under the new democratic government, Eskom made concerted efforts to expand its supply and services to some of the most remote rural areas. This garnered wide praise and even yielded the <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/eskom-x2013-a-powerhouse-in-world-energy-2002-02-22">Financial Times Global Energy Award</a>. The result was that the bulk of the country’s population began to enjoy access to what was then unlimited electricity. It was also relatively cheap.</p>
<p>But this had unintended consequences. Even when individuals felt drawn to the notion of carbon-free renewable energy, the simplicity of sourcing reliable, low-cost power from Eskom made all alternatives uncompetitive.</p>
<p>The second biggest obstacle has been that until about ten years ago solar was expensive. The cost then dropped dramatically between 2011 and 2021: in line with international trends, by <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/csir-says-fall-in-renewables-tariffs-points-to-need-for-higher-deployments-2021-11-12">a factor of 10</a>. </p>
<p>The frequent Eskom power cuts accompanied by <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-01-12-nersa-approves-18-65-eskom-tariff-hike-for-2023-24-and-12-74-for-the-following-financial-year/">large price increases</a>, and the drop in the price of solar electricity coupled with better storage options, have changed the equation completely.</p>
<h2>The alternatives</h2>
<p>Three on-site power options are briefly discussed.</p>
<p><a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/383400-the-cheapest-way-to-keep-your-house-powered-during-load-shedding.html">Diesel generators</a>: This well-established technology is already common in rural communities, and was adopted by many households and businesses during the earlier waves of power cuts. But the diesel option isn’t cheap and fuel is subject to price fluctuations. On top of this generators require maintenance, they tend to be noisy and they emit fumes.</p>
<p><a href="https://energypedia.info/wiki/Advantages_and_Disadvantages_of_Biogas">Biogas</a>: This is produced from rotting agricultural leftovers or organic waste that collects in municipal landfills. South Africa’s agricultural sector produces ample fuel for this technology, so it is likely to see wider application in farming communities. But it’s impractical for residential and business use.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.wwf.org.za/?32304/understanding-and-managing-residential-solar-rooftop-pv">On-site solar installation</a>: South Africa has ample sunshine. In addition, solar panel prices have dropped massively over the last decade. Efficient large-scale battery storage options have also become increasingly feasible. The persistent downside of solar installations is that they won’t bridge lengthy cloudy spells.</p>
<p>The initial impetus for the grand move to solar rooftop has been provided by large enterprises with the financial capacity to invest in what amounts to <a href="https://mallofthesouth.co.za/news/news/mall-of-the-south-embarks-on-solar-plant-mission-to-reach-c40-net-zero-targets/">full-blown private solar farms</a>. These include mines, factories, shopping malls and agricultural estates. These enterprises expect to recover their investment costs in just a few years. </p>
<p>Smaller entities, including typical households, are beginning to follow this trend.</p>
<h2>Exiting the grid, or not</h2>
<p>While it’s possible in theory to install enough solar panels and battery storage to see a household through a week without sunshine, this is still far from a financially optimal solution.</p>
<p>Those that have invested in in-house solar capacity currently retain their access to Eskom electricity for periods when solar power is unavailable or not sufficient. Their primary aim is to lower their electricity bills and to have some backup power during the temporary Eskom blackouts.</p>
<p>Panel numbers and battery capacity can in theory be increased until it becomes possible to have electricity for days. In this way they can bridge lengthy periods of cloudiness. But it’s costly to acquire equipment.</p>
<p>South Africa is, however, a country that enjoys <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-southern-africas-interior-is-an-ideal-place-to-generate-solar-energy-161030">unusually many sunshine hours</a>. This may well tempt those that are able to get by with occasional power interruptions to abandon the Eskom grid entirely, especially if punitive tariffs are imposed on those seeking only occasional Eskom backup power.</p>
<p>Medium and large companies requiring interruption-free power are however likely to opt for the hybrid model of self-generated electricity with Eskom backup. This trend has started and will grow. But it is clear that the past paradigm of complete reliance on Eskom is going to change forever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>Installing enough solar panels and battery storage to see a household through a week without sunshine isn’t yet financially possible.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1966672022-12-15T14:32:02Z2022-12-15T14:32:02ZEskom CEO quits: why finding a new head for South Africa’s struggling power utility won’t end the blackouts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501273/original/file-20221215-17-lyi8oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An employee makes fermentation notes by torchlight during a power outage period at a brewery in Cape Town, South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For a multitude of reasons, Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter’s <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/eskom-ceo-andre-de-ruyter-resigns">resignation</a> is a huge setback for the state-owned power utility and South Africa. It comes at a time when the utility, which produces <a href="https://dpe.gov.za/state-owned-companies/eskom/">95% of the electricity</a> used in the country, needs stable leadership.</p>
<p>Stability is critical for success in the three key transitions Eskom needs to navigate. It needs to turn back the tide of state capture, and deliver a reliable electricity supply. It must reorganise the group into generation, distribution and transmission, and it must reduce its carbon footprint.</p>
<p>Under De Ruyter’s leadership, some progress has been made in all three areas. Now, successful prosecution of those responsible for corruption, unbundling of Eskom, and the transformation of generating units into an integrated and environmentally sustainable organisation are under severe threat. </p>
<p>De Ruyter’s <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-12-15-im-disappointed-i-couldnt-achieve-my-objectives-says-eskom-ceo-andre-de-ruyter/">resignation</a> comes as South Africa’s energy consumers face <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/south-africas-eskom-implement-stage-6-power-cuts-2022-12-07/">the worst scheduled power cuts ever</a>, beyond even their wildest imaginings. Eskom <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/">operates a fleet </a> of 15 coal-fired power stations, one nuclear facility, 4 gas turbines and 7 pumped storage/hydro-electric stations. Most of the coal stations are down for emergency repairs, and there seems to be no end in sight to escalating rolling blackouts.</p>
<p>De Ruyter’s announcement came a few days after the country <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/only-six-solar-projects-advance-to-preferred-bidder-status-following-latest-renewables-round-2022-12-08">was told</a> that the renewable energy programme, a necessary part of South Africa’s energy future and a low-cost solution to the energy shortfall, will only award the solar tenders of Bid Window 6, adding a miserable 860 MW to the energy grid. This is instead of 5,200 MW <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-26-here-it-is-ramaphosas-energy-action-plan-to-end-sas-rolling-blackouts/">promised</a> by President Cyril Ramaphosa in his Electricity Action Plan delivered in July 2022.</p>
<p>That is 20% of what was promised and 5% of what the country needed, based on the 2019 <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201910/42778gon1359.pdf">Integrated Resource Plan</a>.</p>
<p>All of this shows that De Ruyter’s resignation is no reflection on the ability – or inability – of an individual to deal with the electricity crisis. Whoever replaces him will confront the many systemic or structural issues in the company – and the country. </p>
<h2>Behind the resignation</h2>
<p>De Ruyter would not have had to think long about his resignation. At the top of my list is a lack of political support, with Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/eskom-agitates-for-overthrow-of-the-state-by-not-dealing-with-loadshedding-mantashe-2022-12-08/rep_id:4136">accusing</a> Eskom of treason, and Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan failing <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/investigations/eskom-sabotage-how-de-ruyter-was-undermined-by-new-board-excluded-from-meetings-forced-to-resign-20221215-2">to come to his defence or respecting his authority</a>. </p>
<p>No CEO of a state-owned entity, particularly an entity under siege
by criminals, can operate effectively without political support, regardless of the loyalty of the management team or the sentiments of the board.</p>
<p>My second reason for asserting that De Ruyter wouldn’t have to think for long about his decision is that Eskom has lost control of its power stations to criminal elements and “rent-seekers”, who engage in <a href="http://apanews.net/en/pays/afrique-du-sud/news/sabotage-rampant-at-safricas-eskom-power-stations-official">purposeful malfunction and sabotage</a> to earn higher maintenance and other fees from the utility. <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/internal-saboteur-arrested-at-camden-power-station/">Drain plugs</a> removed from motor housings, cables cut, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/a-coal-truck-driver-and-his-supervisor-arrested-for-coal-theft-at-matla-power-station/">theft of coal</a> and <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/contracted-security-guards-arrested-for-stealing-diesel-at-port-rex-power-station/">diesel</a>, death threats against station managers, are all examples from a long list of cases which are awaiting police investigation. </p>
<p>Moreover, law enforcement is doing little to control the crime. There have been no convictions.</p>
<p>My final reason is that De Ruyter’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-troubled-power-utility-is-being-reset-ceo-sets-out-how-168097">vision</a> for a future, greener Eskom is not shared by his board or his ministers. South Africans need to be reminded of the present status of Eskom’s environmental emissions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-troubled-power-utility-is-being-reset-ceo-sets-out-how-168097">South Africa's troubled power utility is being reset: CEO sets out how</a>
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<p>Eskom is the <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/eskom-is-now-worlds-biggest-sulphur-dioxide-emitter-crea-says-2021-10-05">largest sulphur dioxide emitter</a> in the world, exceeding the total emissions of China and the US combined. Similarly, the utility’s carbon emissions are about <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/opinion/opinion-eskom-has-been-called-the-worlds-worst-polluting-power-company-just-how-bad-is-it-20211105#:%7E:text=According%20to%20Eskom's%20most%20recent,from%20all%20its%20power%20stations.">200 million tonnes per year</a>, representing 40% of South Africa’s total emissions. </p>
<p>All of Eskom’s 15 power stations are in breach of the Minimum Emission Standard, and Eskom has been <a href="https://mg.co.za/environment/2021-12-15-rule-of-law-closes-in-as-eskoms-applications-to-postpone-compliance-with-air-pollution-standards-are-denied/">told repeatedly</a> by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment to scale down the emissions or shut its power stations.</p>
<p>De Ruyter has been attempting to address the question of energy sustainability by closing and repurposing old coal-based power plants, unbundling the company, and raising funds for the just transition and decarbonisation of electricity generation. </p>
<p>These efforts are constantly being undermined by Mantashe and the coal lobby.</p>
<h2>A future of power cuts</h2>
<p>The CEO’s departure signals a deepening crisis in terms of scheduled power cuts. The country is now suffering regular rolling blackouts, and must adapt to a routine <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/2021-confirmed-as-most-intensive-load-shedding-year-yet-as-eskoms-eaf-continues-to-fall-2022-06-07">energy availability factor of 50% to 55%</a>, leaving a generation shortfall of 4 GW to 5 GW. Since only 66% of Eskom’s demand side is subject to power cuts - the national key points which consume 33% of the total demand are untouched by loadshedding - this means 6 to 8 hours per day of no power for the average consumer. </p>
<p>I have argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-it-will-take-for-south-africas-ailing-power-utility-to-keep-going-183777">previously</a> that rolling blackouts were driving large-scale customers away from the national grid into cheaper and more reliable options. Although there is no definitive data available, customers who are reliant on power for critical manufacturing processes, and functions such as refrigeration, are buying solar panels as fast as they can find them. </p>
<p>Infrastructure investment of this nature is a 20-year decision – that’s how long it takes for investment of this nature to pay. This means that large users will not be returning to the grid any time soon.</p>
<p>Based on the present trends, my prediction is that within two years, the customer base will contract by 30%. Of the 18 GW customer base subject to power cuts, at least one half will find alternative energy supplies, either directly or through private utility companies.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done</h2>
<p>Top of my list is to cleanse the sector of the “energy Mafia” which profits from sabotage and rent-seeking, and regain control of the captured power stations. The new CEO will have to ensure that the “special law enforcement team to help Eskom in confronting crime and corruption”, about which President Ramaphosa <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-address-nation-energy-crisis-25-jul-2022-0000">spoke so emphatically</a> in July 2022, does its job.</p>
<p>The second task is to fully commission <a href="https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/medupi-power-plant/">Medupi</a> and <a href="https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/kusile-coal-fired-power-project/">Kusile</a>, which have <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/budget/how-medupi-and-kusile-are-sinking-south-africa-20191009">cost the country dearly</a> and now need to operate at the design capacity. </p>
<p>This task will require further capital expenditure, which Eskom does not have, and the <a href="https://www.nersa.org.za/our-profile/">National Energy Regulator of South Africa</a> is unlikely to provide the funds in the form of a high electricity tariff. Both stations are critical to the longer-term stability of the grid, at least until 2050.</p>
<p>Simultaneous to restoring the coal fleet, the new CEO must focus on the renewable energy programme, which, at this point, is being hindered by limitations in transmission. Eskom needs new grid infrastructure to bring additional wind and solar energy online, and implement the determinations of the renewable energy programme, despite political interference and the power of the coal lobby.</p>
<p>It is a tragedy to see the departure of a high calibre team, including Jan Oberholzer, the Chief Operating Officer, and the General Executive for Generation, Rhulani Mathebula, that made earnest efforts to keep the lights on. Now, it is up to the board to find courageous and energetic replacements who can regain the country’s confidence in the ability of this government to run a state-owned utility.</p>
<p>The track record is not inspiring. Other big state utilities have been <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/opinion/carol-paton-boards-of-state-companies-are-broken-paralysed-despite-ramaphosas-pledge-20220920-2">hollowed out by bad and corrupt management</a>. These include the transport utility Prasa, South African Airways and the South African Post Office.</p>
<p>I leave you to draw your own conclusion.</p>
<p>Eskom needs a new management team, this is clear. But the country also needs new leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Richard Walwyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Eskom needs a new management team, this is clear. But the country also needs new leadership.David Richard Walwyn, Professor of Technology Management, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1963072022-12-15T09:39:51Z2022-12-15T09:39:51Z2022 was a rough year for people everywhere – South Africa was no exception<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500654/original/file-20221213-3308-f7sylx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soweto township residents protest over a lack of electricity on June 21, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tough economic conditions meant that 2022 was a rough year for people everywhere in the world. South Africa was no exception. But this year’s crop of problems came on top of a legacy of poor economic performance.</p>
<p>The country’s economic growth averaged 1% over the nine years to 2021, leaving the population poorer on average. The poverty rate has increased, reaching 63% in 2021, according to <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099516510142241287/pdf/IDU0ac6d32d1021390489e09209038a43437d600.pdf">the latest World Bank estimates</a>, back to where it was a decade earlier. Failure to improve living standards, the bank has warned, threatens social stability and will add pressure to public finances, which are already overstretched.</p>
<p>These problems can be addressed. But the country has been struggling to reach consensus on the way forward, a crucial step that’s needed before solutions can be found, as South African Reserve Bank governor <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/speeches/speeches-by-governors/2022/An%20address%20by%20Lesetja%20Kganyago%20Governor%20of%20the%20SARB%20at%20CEEF%20Africa%20event%2028%20September%202022.pdf">Lesetja Kganyago pointed out</a> in a major speech.</p>
<p>During the course of 2022 we published a number of articles that talk to South Africa’s socio-economic challenges. </p>
<p>An analysis of expenditure on basic education, healthcare and the criminal justice system by <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-public-service-real-spending-is-falling-but-demand-is-growing-192898">Michael Sachs, Arabo K. Ewinyu and Olwethu Shedi</a> shows that government’s fiscal consolidation path will reduce real spending on these core public services, further eroding their quality and reach.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-public-service-real-spending-is-falling-but-demand-is-growing-192898">South Africa's public service: real spending is falling, but demand is growing</a>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/basic-income-support-in-south-africa-risks-rewards-and-what-it-will-take-176821">In another article</a>, Sachs explains why South Africa needs a social compact on the sacrifices that must be made if the country is to find a balance between giving income support to the poor and unemployed and managing the fiscal risks to its fragile economy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/basic-income-support-in-south-africa-risks-rewards-and-what-it-will-take-176821">Basic income support in South Africa: risks, rewards and what it will take</a>
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<p>Not all of the country’s problems are recent. One major challenge to the lives of many South Africans is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-crippling-power-cuts-five-essential-reads-187111">power cuts</a> which have been going on for more than 13 years. </p>
<p>Outages have become regular occurrences which are estimated to cost the country’s economy about US$1 million an hour. </p>
<p>We worked with academic experts to try to make sense of the structural and governance factors driving the power cuts and how to get the country out of this situation. <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-crippling-power-cuts-five-essential-reads-187111">Here are</a> five essential reads.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-five-essential-reads-187111">South Africa's power crisis: five essential reads</a>
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<p>Some of the challenges, such as land reform, which remains highly contested, are a hangover from the colonial and apartheid past. <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-reform-in-south-africa-5-myths-about-farming-debunked-195045">Johann Kirsten and Wandile Sihlobo</a> argue that the debate on land reform is skewed by persistent myths about farmland statistics and the structure of the country’s commercial agriculture sector. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/land-reform-in-south-africa-5-myths-about-farming-debunked-195045">Land reform in South Africa: 5 myths about farming debunked</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another hangover from the past is uneven regional economic growth and development.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-should-design-economic-policy-based-on-strengths-of-regions-heres-how-176104">Justin Visagie and Ivan Turok</a> outline what can be done to help lagging regions improve their economic performance.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-should-design-economic-policy-based-on-strengths-of-regions-heres-how-176104">South Africa should design economic policy based on strengths of regions: here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Finally, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa may have an impeachment case to answer. This was the finding of the independent parliamentary panel probing the scandal over the theft of thousands of US dollars stashed illegally on his farm, Phala Phala. Academics writing for The Conversation Africa <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-president-ramaphosa-could-be-impeached-3-essential-reads-on-the-phala-phala-scandal-195738">explored</a> the issues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-president-ramaphosa-could-be-impeached-3-essential-reads-on-the-phala-phala-scandal-195738">South Africa's President Ramaphosa could be impeached - 3 essential reads on the Phala Phala scandal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Consensus is the first step towards solving problems - but it’s been hard to reach.Jabulani Sikhakhane, Editor, The Conversation AfricaMoina Spooner, Assistant EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948262022-12-02T13:03:04Z2022-12-02T13:03:04ZCorruption in South Africa: new book lifts the lid on who profits - and their corporate enablers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496463/original/file-20221121-26-3p10v6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The new <a href="https://jacana.co.za/product/the-unaccountables/">book</a> The Unaccountables: The Powerful Politicians and Corporations who Profit from Impunity is welcome for the way it contextualises corruption. It shows how politicians and bureaucrats could not implement corruption without their corporate and professional enablers – the accountants, auditors and advocates who make it all possible.</p>
<p>The book is the result of a decade of research by <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org.za/">Open Secrets</a> and other NGOs. It is edited by Michael Marchant, Mamello Mosiana, Ra’eesa Pather and Hennie van Vuuren (a blend of investigative journalists and activists) and has 11 named contributors. Analytically, it covers four overlapping issues:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>crimes such as stealing public funds and evading tax </p></li>
<li><p>culpable negligence by professionals such as auditors </p></li>
<li><p>serial failure by regulatory authorities </p></li>
<li><p>moral and political issues such as inequality and corporate tax avoidance.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Corporate corruption</h2>
<p>Readers who are diligent in taking in the daily media will remember most of the high profile cases summarised in this book. But not all. It reveals that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-deaths-of-144-mentally-ill-patients-and-south-africas-constitutional-democracy-91433">Life Esidemeni tragedy</a>, in which 144 patients died after being placed in inadequate facilities run by NGOs in 2015, had one apartheid precedent. During the 1960s the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/National-Party-political-party-South-Africa">National Party</a> regime outsourced the psychiatric care of 11,000 patients (9,000 of them black) to the British company Intrinsic Investments: 207 died (p.50). </p>
<p>The book fills some gaps in media reports. These tend to focus on those who are despised by the plutocratic, wealthy establishment – the ruling African National Congress politicians and their cronies. The media are comparatively reluctant to cover crimes committed by fellow denizens of their plutocratic stratosphere, such as auditors, accountants and advocates. For example, global media coverage of Hong Kong focuses on Chinese repression of freedom of expression – but overlooks its role as a tax shelter and corporate secrecy hideout for front companies and money laundering:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a long-running failure to hold the powerful and wealthy to account for the crimes that they profit from. Economic crimes and corruption are committed by a small band of the powerful, but they pose fundamental threats to democracy and social justice. They result in the looting of public funds, the destruction of democratic institutions, and ultimately … the human rights of millions of people. (p.12)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Fear of those with money to bring defamation litigation, or who decide on corporate advertising spending in the media, aggravates this situation.</p>
<p>This book is structured around apartheid profiteers, war profiteers, state capture profiteers, welfare profiteers, failing auditors, conspiring consultants, and bad lawyers.</p>
<p>The authors note how over 500 global corporations negotiated, thanks to their tax accountants, with Luxembourg, a tax haven, paying only 1% tax on their profits (p.254). They seem to have missed the case of Ireland, where such tax is one thousandth of 1% on profits. Such tax shelters pervade the west, especially <a href="https://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries">Commonwealth countries</a>.</p>
<p>The book calls for action to end such tax avoidance. But it does not spell out what it would entail. It would require the South African government to negotiate an international coalition to campaign through the United Nations, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the African Union, to find enough allies to mitigate such a global power structure – class power in its purest form.</p>
<p>US president Joe Biden’s proposal that globally, corporate tax should have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/biden-offers-drop-corporate-tax-hike-proposal-source-2021-06-03/">a floor of 15%</a> provides a good start for such campaigns.</p>
<h2>Regulation failure</h2>
<p>This book gives welcome attention to a long-neglected problem in South Africa. That is the serial failure of regulatory authorities to hold companies or professionals to account. One instance too recent for this book to cover is that the minerals and energy minister, Gwede Mantashe, has fired from the National Nuclear Regulator a civil society representative, on the grounds that he is <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/eskom/mantashe-fires-anti-nuclear-activist-from-regulatory-board-20220225">anti-nuclear</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Book cover with the words 'The Unaccountable' over images of several punidentifiable men walking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1167&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496457/original/file-20221121-19-rl2eao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1167&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Since the minister’s portfolio and performance contract require him to promote nuclear power, it is a conflict of interests for him to interfere in the regulator of nuclear safety. The regulator should fall under the environmental affairs department, as in other countries. This is a topical example of the abuse of power, and defanging a regulatory authority.</p>
<p>The book underscores that the Independent Regulatory Board of Auditors (IRBA) refuses to name and shame. It abuses secrecy to protect the names and reputations of auditors guilty of conspiring with their corporate clients to conceal the truth (p.272):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the IRBA’s desire to protect its members overshadows its responsibility. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Since at least the first world war, pacifists have denounced the military-industrial complex as the merchants of death. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/national-conventional-arms-control-committee-ncacc-statement-south-african-arms-sales-regulation">National Conventional Arms Control Committee</a> is supposed to oversee South African exports of armaments and munitions. This is to ensure the country does not violate international treaties. It is not known to have refused any permits to export armaments to countries at war, even when they indiscriminately bomb civilians, as in Yemen.</p>
<p>The authors call for its statutory framework to be drastically toughened up.</p>
<h2>Apartheid profiteers</h2>
<p>The historical chapter of the book, on apartheid profiteers, holds no surprises. Of course, <a href="https://www.sanlam.co.za/Pages/default.aspx?gclid=Cj0KCQiA4OybBhCzARIsAIcfn9m5OBZxhgPlZPIjzU68Z0C7CSAqA8Eqkui60NBY7q8qkcX4Hw3vu_UaAlITEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds">Sanlam</a>, the insurance giant, and <a href="https://www.naspers.com/">Naspers</a>, the media behemoth, were always part of the Afrikaner nationalist movement, led by the secretive <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Afrikaner-Broederbond">Broederbond</a>. Of course, individual Afrikaner businessmen donated to the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/national-party-np">Nasionale Party</a>, which formalised apartheid in 1948, as did the military-industrial complex. All those companies manufacturing armaments had only one monopoly buyer – the South African Defence Force:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a significant portion of the business elite kept the taps open to the party at the height of domestic repression and foreign wars (p.25). </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The authors do a thorough job of exposing all the Swiss, Belgian and Luxembourg bankers who comprised the sanction-busting front companies. It exposes the late <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mobutu-Sese-Seko">Mobutu Sese Seko</a> of Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo) for providing false end user certificates to enable <a href="https://www.armscor.co.za/">Armscor</a>, the apartheid-era state arms procurement company, to smuggle in weaponry (p.42).</p>
<p>The book revisits the controversial <a href="https://www.corruptionwatch.org.za/the-arms-deal-what-you-need-to-know-2/">1999 arms deal</a>. It explains how bribes were described in corporate paperwork as consultancy fees. The arms deal was the first opportunity of the post-apartheid military to buy big-ticket weapons after a quarter-century of arms sanctions, which the post-apartheid military lacked the budget to maintain in service. </p>
<p>Since then, the amount wasted in the arms deal has been dwarfed by the billions spent by <a href="https://www.transnet.net/Pages/Home.aspx">Transnet</a>, the rail, ports and pipelines parastatal, on corrupt locomotive contracts. The same for <a href="https://www.prasa.com/">Prasa</a>, the passenger rail parastatal, and <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, the power utility, contracts.</p>
<p>Overall, it is a book that should be on the bookshelf of every thinking South African.</p>
<p><em>Updated to clear confusion created by the absence of an index in the advance proof sent to the author.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194826/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is an ANC member, but writes this review in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The new book is structured around apartheid profiteers, war profiteers, state capture profiteers, welfare profiteers, failing auditors, conspiring consultants and bad lawyers.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938702022-11-16T14:28:16Z2022-11-16T14:28:16ZSouth Africa can reduce emissions and create jobs. A tough task, but doable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495310/original/file-20221115-26-8by8my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Kusile coal-fired power plant is the fourth-largest coal plant in the world. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phill Magakoe / AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has the dubious distinction of having one of the highest rates of unemployment and inequality in the world. It is also one of the world’s most emissions-intensive economies, measured in greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic output. </p>
<p>The co-existence of high unemployment and high emissions intensity is not a coincidence. South Africa’s history of segregation and apartheid has had profound implications for its development path. Choices were made that favoured investment in capital rather than labour. Economic growth was based, in part, on cheap (coal-based) energy, overlooking its high emissions.</p>
<p>Coal has been the dominant fuel in South Africa’s energy economy. In addition to coal-fired power, about 30% of liquid fuel supply comes from converting coal to liquid, a technology employed by the energy company Sasol. The political economy of energy supply, then, is dominated by a duopoly – the state power utility Eskom, and Sasol. Significant actors include coal mining firms upstream and electricity-intensive industry downstream.</p>
<p>South Africa’s emission intensity (emissions per unit of output) in 2018 was 2.5 times the global average. That’s about five times higher than in the US. Four-fifths of emissions are attributable to energy supply and use. </p>
<p>The large oligopolistic firms engaged in the processing of minerals and basic chemicals production were able to exercise market power and charge import parity prices to downstream producers in South Africa. This limited downstream manufacturing development.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sarchi-wp-2021-06-winkler-and-black-september-2021.pdf">paper published last year</a> we outlined the key drivers of South Africa’s historical development path. We then considered how South Africa could develop in a way that creates jobs without producing such a high level of emissions. This article focuses on the solutions.</p>
<h2>The country’s energy crisis</h2>
<p>South Africa has experienced <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/7081/">frequent power outages since 2006</a>. Many older coal plants have failing units mainly because of insufficient maintenance. Even the new power stations, Medupi and Kusile, have not operated consistently because of design flaws. This would suggest a compelling case to build generation capacity fast. Wind and solar photovoltaic projects have short lead times. </p>
<p>Yet these proposals have met resistance.</p>
<p>A programme to procure renewable energy from independent power producers is widely considered a success. Renewable energy has grown rapidly but it is still a relatively small share of electricity generated. The country needs a much faster pace of investment to achieve a just energy transition.</p>
<p>Due to mismanagement and large-scale corruption, Eskom has drastically underperformed and is severely indebted. The crisis has galvanised action to unbundle the utility. The idea is to divide it into three separate companies – generation, transmission and distribution. </p>
<p>Eskom has a just energy transition plan and has committed in principle to net-zero CO₂ by 2050. There is an opportunity to access international climate finance, which would support the plan, phase coal out and support socio-economic development. </p>
<p>Political support has given momentum to this plan.</p>
<h2>Policy options for reduced emissions and job creation</h2>
<p>A strategy for employment-intensive and low-emissions development would include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>changes to incentives and subsidies provided by the government</p></li>
<li><p>appropriate regulation. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The proper pricing of energy is a first step. There has been limited public debate on fossil fuel subsidies. Estimates are that these amount to between R6.5 billion and R29 billion per year. They accrue to all consumers of fuel.</p>
<p>Subsidies should be applied, instead to repowering coal-fired power stations, to provide electricity from renewable energy sources. Eskom plans to do this repowering. One feasible option may be to add a levy on power prices to fund localisation of renewable energy and provide training for renewable energy and energy service companies. </p>
<p>Renewable energy can create net employment gains, even as jobs decline in coal mining. One study of the employment co-benefits found that 1.2 million job years could be created along the renewable energy value chain. This is more than double the number indicated in the government’s Integrated Resource Plan. </p>
<p>Policy must promote new development in activities and sectors to build on the country’s potential comparative advantage – labour – and prepare for low emissions development. Such policies will have a varied impact depending on employment and emissions intensity of the sector in question. For instance, higher electricity prices or carbon taxes are likely to have the greatest negative impact on high-emissions sectors, many of which are also capital-intensive. </p>
<p>Yet South Africa could build comparative advantage in light manufacturing, and create low-emissions employment in agriculture. </p>
<h2>Supporting employment and reducing poverty</h2>
<p>The incentive structure (accompanied by appropriate regulation) needs to shift in support of greater employment intensity. For example, it is better to subsidise training rather than capital investment. And it’s better to encourage the building of worker housing close to workplaces rather than infrastructure for heavy industry. </p>
<p>More comprehensive wage subsidies could change firm behaviour and increase the competitiveness of labour-demanding activities. On the other hand, it makes little sense, in South Africa’s high unemployment environment, to offer incentives for capital investment, as have been applied to sections of heavy industry and other sectors. </p>
<p>Rather, industrial and other policies need to support light manufacturing, both to grow exports and to compete more effectively in the domestic market. Light industries draw on the local, semi-skilled labour force, experience in the region, and established infrastructure. Examples include apparel, metal products, household semi-durables, and electronics assembly. </p>
<p>There is also scope to support small and medium energy service companies that provide energy efficiency and small-scale renewable energy services.</p>
<p>Agriculture is a very labour-intensive sector both in terms of employment per unit of output and in terms of its employment multiplier. The destruction of the peasantry through land dispossession has limited the sector’s employment potential but opportunities still exist. </p>
<p>With greater and more focused support, the agricultural sector could play an important role in development. Such policies will have a varied impact depending on employment and emissions intensity of the sector in question. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>South Africa faces huge challenges and pressing socio-economic issues. At the same time, it needs to contribute to climate action. The policy instruments proposed above can be thought of as a policy package – coordinated across industrial, energy, climate and other policy domains.</p>
<p>Historically, the economy has been on a development path that has given rise to the minerals-energy complex. This distorted growth path locked South Africa into low employment and high emissions development, and it has proved difficult to shift direction. The adjustment costs are high and there are also strong political economy interests in support of the current direction.</p>
<p>An integrated employment and mitigation strategy is required to shape (or reshape) the development path of the economy. This means aligning the two objectives, seeking synergies across industrial, energy and climate policy, and managing trade-offs. </p>
<p>Such a strategy is more aligned with South Africa’s real comparative advantage – labour – and will produce more rapid, sustainable and inclusive growth. In the past there was a connection between high emissions and low employment intensity. We argue that employment-intensive growth and a low emissions strategy can complement each other.</p>
<p><em>This is an edited version of an article published by Econ 3X3. You can find the original <a href="https://www.econ3x3.org/article/how-create-jobs-and-combat-climate-change">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Acknowledgement: Funding for the research that underpins this article (being a Policy Brief and Working Paper, referenced in the article) was received from the project ‘Community of Practice in Industrialisation and Innovation’ hosted by the DSI/NRF South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg.</span></em></p>Employment-intensive growth and a low emissions strategy can complement each other in South Africa.Anthony Black, Professor, University of Cape TownHarald Winkler, Professor of Climate Change Mitigation and Inequality, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937502022-11-13T05:29:05Z2022-11-13T05:29:05ZSouth Africa is hooked on fossil fuels: how it got here and how it can get out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494630/original/file-20221110-15-uw9p98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Kusile coal-fired power station in Mpumalanga.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has experienced power shortages with <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/640883/planning-for-a-future-without-eskom/">rolling blackouts</a> on an unprecedented scale in 2022. This state of affairs is largely due to technical failures at its <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/amabhungane-the-collapse-of-old-king-coal-20220927">ageing fleet of coal power plants</a>.</p>
<p>The present power generation shortage is due to the power utility Eskom’s failure to add sufficient new electricity generation to the grid. This meant that it had to keep ailing old power stations going beyond their projected life span. The coal plants are prone to frequent renewed breakdown. In addition, their maintenance and parts replacements are becoming <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/amabhungane-the-collapse-of-old-king-coal-part-3-the-war-over-the-future-of-coal-begins-20221101">prohibitively expensive</a>.</p>
<p>Given the major contribution that the burning of coal makes to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, electricity generation from coal is in any case globally viewed as extremely problematic, with major pressure and incentives to scale this down.</p>
<p>South Africa is currently ranked eighth in the world in terms of the total amount of coal used for electricity generation. This is based on country-by-country global statistics on coal power generation. The statistics are produced on an annual basis and are <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/">widely available</a>. The largest coal user by far is China, followed by India, though these are also the world’s most populous nations.</p>
<p>In terms of energy consumption from coal per capita, South Africa also ranks among the highest in the world with just under <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-consumption-per-capita">16,500 kWh per person per annum</a> This is in line with other highly coal dependent countries. It is roughly on par with China, South Korea and Australia and slightly lower than the top three – Estonia, Kazakhstan and Taiwan.</p>
<p>When it comes to dependency on coal power plants, South Africa is in a class of its own – 85% of its electricity is produced in coal power plants. This is way higher than all countries – bar two. <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-coal">Only</a> Mongolia and Kosovo have a higher dependency. They have tiny populations – Mongolia has just over <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/mongolia-population/">3 million</a> people, Kosovo just <a href="https://countrymeters.info/en/Kosovo">under 2 million</a>. South Africa’s population is <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-africa-population/">over 60 million</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa’s percentage of electricity from coal has decreased only marginally – by 9 percentage points – since 1985. This is in contrast to other previously coal dependent countries that have made much more dramatic moves to carbon-free power. For example, the UK got 58% of its electricity from coal <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/">in 1985</a>. Today this is down to 2%, partly thanks to massive <a href="https://www.renewableuk.com/page/WindEnergy">investments in wind power</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa has climatic conditions suitable for solar and wind power, and should in theory similarly be able to reduce its coal dependence. A drive towards low-carbon electricity generation however requires governmental support, which has mostly not been forthcoming in the last decade. </p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>As it’s a country with <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coal/south-africa-coal/">rich coal deposits</a>, South Africa’s proliferation of coal plants was to be expected in the 1970s and 1980s. Because it’s also a water scarce country, possibilities for hydropower plants were always limited. And while one nuclear plant was constructed, the increasing isolation of apartheid-era South Africa made it difficult to access international expertise needed for further nuclear developments.</p>
<p>Renewable technologies are relatively new. They only <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020">became commercially competitive</a> about 10 years ago, and were not considered a viable alternative to fossil fuels before then.</p>
<p>When the need for more power generation in South Africa became apparent in the first years of the millennium, a time when the electrification of previously unconnected communities was booming, the choice was made to construct two further coal plants, <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2021/03/17/eskom-medupi-kusile-yelland">Medupi and Kusile</a>. </p>
<p>These builds have, however, proved technologically flawed, way over budget and badly behind schedule.</p>
<p>When the first series of rolling power cuts had to be <a href="https://www.ee.co.za/wp-content/uploads/legacy/Energize_Oct09/01_GT_Review.pdf">implemented in 2007</a>, it became clear that energy security planning and implementation had gone wrong. The subsequent electricity plan from 2010 recommended major developments in nuclear and renewable energy.</p>
<p>In 2015 the government stalled the construction of planned new solar and wind plants in favour of a highly controversial and ultimately blocked <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-presidents-last-ditch-effort-to-ram-through-a-nuclear-power-deal-87018">nuclear deal with Russia</a>. Since the resumption of the renewables electricity programme in 2018 some wind and solar plants have been built, but at nowhere near the rate needed to dent the dominant role of coal.</p>
<h2>A lack of unity of purpose</h2>
<p>Despite the electricity crisis having now become urgent and obvious, with <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/630667/south-africas-horror-year-of-load-shedding-heres-how-it-compares/">several hours of power cuts during as many as half of the days</a> in 2022, there has been no unity in purpose to tackle the issue.</p>
<p>There are loud calls, also <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/eskom-debt-takeover-godongwana-says-gas-nuclear-will-be-part-of-conditions-20221101">supported by influential individuals</a> within the ruling African National Congress party, to maintain South Africa’s coal-intensive trajectory. The proponents argue that the coal power stations can simply be managed better, and that any new power generation should mainly be <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mantashe-restates-his-positions-on-energy-at-conference-but-highlights-nuclear-2022-10-18">focused on nuclear and gas</a>.</p>
<p>The opposing view is that South Africa should align with the global trends to massively <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-could-produce-a-lot-more-renewable-energy-heres-what-it-needs-185897">develop new solar and wind</a> power plants. Its advocates justify this option by pointing to the lower cost of these technologies, short project completion times and environmental considerations.</p>
<p>Despite enjoying weather conditions that are superbly suited for <a href="https://www.wasaproject.info/">wind</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-southern-africas-interior-is-an-ideal-place-to-generate-solar-energy-161030">solar</a> farms, South Africa has been extremely slow to kickstart its renewable energy generating infrastructure.</p>
<p>South Africa could have followed the example of China. Although the largest user of coal in the world, it is already making <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/10/china-solar-wind-renewables-capacity-eu-power-2025">major moves</a> towards a far lower carbon footprint. Over the five year period 2021-2025, China plans to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-do-chinas-gigantic-wind-and-solar-bases-mean-for-its-climate-goals/">add solar and wind plants producing 570 GW</a> of electricity. </p>
<p>To put this figure into perspective, this is roughly ten times <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/ZAF">South Africa’s present total power capacity</a>.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The office of the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, comes across as sympathetic to mass renewable energy developments. It has aligned itself with the recently published <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/content/south-africa%27s-just-energy-transition-investment-plan-jet-ip-2023-2027">Just Energy Transition Investment Plan</a>. </p>
<p>The plan envisages accelerated building of more wind and solar farms to replace decommissioned coal power stations. It also tries to mitigate lowered economic activity and job losses in the coal fields and adjacent coal plants. It goes further in exploring energy exports in the form of <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-sounds-like-a-win-for-developing-countries-but-cost-and-transport-are-problems-191295">green hydrogen</a>, an energy storage medium fed by renewables, and the current global move towards electric vehicles.</p>
<p>If supported and implemented, the plan will result in better power supply in only three to five years from now. This however presupposes that the government will rally behind this initiative and work together rather than sending contradictory messages.</p>
<p>In the interim, power shortages will persist in South Africa.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation.</span></em></p>When it comes to dependency on coal power plants, South Africa is in a class of its own: 85% of its electricity is produced in coal power plants.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1878912022-08-16T13:26:24Z2022-08-16T13:26:24ZState Capture eroded institutions in South Africa. How the revenue service is rebuilding itself<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477698/original/file-20220804-16-peih1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa’s Revenue Service is one of many state institutions in South Africa that have been fingered in the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202201/judicial-commission-inquiry-state-capture-reportpart-1.pdf">Judicial Commission of Inquiry into State Capture</a>. In addition, a special commission established to investigate internal governance at the agency found massive <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/sites/default/files/SARS%20Commission%20Final%20Report.pdf">failures of governance</a>. Professor Mills Soko spoke to Commissioner Edward Kieswetter about the turnaround at the state institution.</em></p>
<p><strong>Mills Soko: You worked as a power station manager at the state utility Eskom which is currently in so much trouble. What was your experience working there? And what comes to mind when you observe the utility today?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Edward Kieswetter:</strong> I was a young 33-year-old when I was appointed to run a small power station. We had a highly scaffolded environment, surrounded by people who were steeped in practical experience and institutional memory. </p>
<p>In the decade I was privileged to be there, we transformed Eskom from an average performing utility into a globally admired one. By 2000 it was constantly performing at a plant availability of above 90%, a breakdown rate of 3% or less, and the planned maintenance of 7%.</p>
<p>I am fortunate that I’ve been invited now to serve on the technical committee that the presidency has called together to try and fix the challenges facing electricity supply. </p>
<p>During the period of state capture institutions such as Eskom – as well as the South African Revenue Service, the National Prosecuting Authority and many others – were hollowed out deliberately and consciously so that they could serve a corrupt purpose. </p>
<p>I can tell you from my own experience that the damage exacted on these institutions is deep and painful, and it will take very persistent effort and focus for us to restore and to build for the future. </p>
<p>That’s the challenge of our country. The capability of the state has been significantly weakened by the period of state capture. But we also have to be honest enough to say there has been a steady decline over a number of years that has brought us to a point where we are largely a state that doesn’t have the capacity it needs to serve the country. </p>
<p><strong>Mills Soko: You were appointed as Commissioner to the South African Revenue Service in May 2019. What have you learnt? Achieved?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Edward Kieswetter:</strong> I have to tell you that the actual damage at the South African Revenue Service is significantly deeper than what any commission of inquiry could ever report. </p>
<p>One of the things we were able to do is institute a very focused modernisation programme that makes the tax filing obligation for most taxpayers a non-event. We believe the best service is no service. We don’t want to be better at queue management, we want to address the root causes so we don’t have queues. </p>
<p>And so we’ve introduced a value proposition for over 3 million taxpayers called auto assessment. We use data and artificial intelligence to select taxpayers for further auditing or investigation. But we’ll also use data and technology to provide a seamless experience for most taxpayers. </p>
<p><strong>Mills Soko: How were you received by employees?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Edward Kieswetter:</strong> The sad reality of state capture and the political dynamic of South Africa at an institutional level is that it forces you to pick a side. And when people pick sides, they lose objectivity. </p>
<p>When you come into an organisation that has been deliberately divided with a corrupt intent, you have employees who have picked sides. The South African Revenue Service is no different. We still have people who haven’t given up on the affiliation with a particular side or faction. </p>
<p>So a very clear message from me to all our leaders and our staff is we are not politicians: we do our work without fear, favour and prejudice. </p>
<p><strong>Mills Soko: Do we think organisations have been rid of state capture?</strong> </p>
<p><strong>Edward Kieswetter:</strong> The answer is no. I don’t think there are any institutions in South Africa that have been cured completely of state capture. The political dynamic in the country today, the contestation for power – within a political party or across political parties – is a very active attempt to keep alive the endowment that people derived from state capture. </p>
<p>South Africa is still inflicted by the residue of state capture and the 10-year period of the former administration. It has spilled over into this administration. We only have to look at the level of corruption that manifested during the procurement phase of the COVID response. We have a long way to go to cure ourselves from the ills of state capture. </p>
<p><strong>Mills Soko: How much progress has been made in terms of undoing state capture at the South African Revenue Service?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Edward Kieswetter:</strong> The Nugent report made about 27 recommendations. The first was to look at the leadership of the organisation, to evaluate EXCO. And we have substantively dealt with that. We reached agreement with a number of senior leaders and we have parted ways.</p>
<p>After years of being deprived of filling critical vacancies because of financial constraints, last year we began to start recruiting people and providing some inward mobility for people into more meaningful roles. </p>
<p>We established a listening campaign where staff could call in and talk, and report certain things that needed to be addressed. </p>
<p>We introduced an employee rights charter that we are socialising through change management.</p>
<p>We also introduced an internal reparations process. We have just over 30 individuals who felt that they were personally compromised. We are in the final stages of an external reparation process. </p>
<p>We appointed an advisory committee using eminent jurists independent of the South African Revenue Service to take representation from those we have settled with. </p>
<p>We have meetings underway to recoup wasteful and fruitless expenditure from a number of executives caught up in this, specifically in relation to the global management consultancy firm, Bain & Company. We have instituted a process of recovering the money plus interest that they paid. And we have handed over the files to the Hawks, the South African Police Services’ Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, and the National Prosecuting Authority for further investigation. When the prosecution authority is ready to start prosecution, we will be drawn into this to provide evidence and to support that process. </p>
<p>We’ve also worked with our counterparts in the US about the misdemeanours at Bain to try and ensure that Bain is brought to book. We think there’s a strong enough case for them to be seriously investigated, to see if there are criminal cases to answer for.</p>
<p><strong>Mills Soko: During the difficult years the South African Revenue Service lost a lot of good people. Have you been able to woo some back?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Edward Kieswetter</strong> One of the things that we are entertaining is to build a pool of so-called grey beards (and female equivalents). We want them to be part of a resource from which younger, more or less experienced people can draw from. </p>
<p>We are also introducing new graduates, young people into the organisation so that we keep the generational mix. We’ve established a junior board so that we can institutionalise the voice of people below 35 years old.</p>
<p>*This is an excerpt of the Wits Business School Leadership Dialogue. The full interview is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dVnVVSrYYI">available here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mills Soko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The South African Revenue Service is on a path to rebuild itself.Mills Soko, Professor: International Business & Strategy, Wits Business School, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882992022-08-10T14:34:53Z2022-08-10T14:34:53ZHigher electricity connection fees in South Africa? A good, and necessary, next step<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478048/original/file-20220808-20-ue5d8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protestors express their anger over continued power cuts in South Africa. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Mujahid Safodien/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s been <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/melanieverwoerd/melanie-verwoerd-penalties-for-not-using-electricity-are-you-freaking-kidding-me-eskom-20220720">outrage</a> from some quarters in South Africa about <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/610390/no-solar-levy-for-south-africa-but-users-will-pay-a-higher-fixed-fee/">reports</a> that the power utility Eskom and some municipalities intend to increase the connection fee for electricity users who also generate their own power.</p>
<p>A number of commentators – <a href="https://twitter.com/CrispianOlver/status/1549813581637730304">including the executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission</a> – have also criticised the idea even though Eskom <a href="https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/450287/eskom-clarifies-proposed-r938-tariff-for-solar-power-users">has said</a> that no such proposal has been tabled officially. </p>
<p>We take a contrary view, for two main reasons.</p>
<p>Firstly, we believe that grid connection fees are crucial to protect the finances of both Eskom and municipalities. Secondly, they are needed to support the <a href="https://www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework">‘just transition’</a> to which the South African government and energy experts claim to be committed. </p>
<p>There is a broad consensus that the world needs to move to <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">‘net-zero’ energy sources</a> to avoid a global warming climate disaster. For South Africa’s coal-based society, this transition will have a major effect on peoples’ livelihoods and standards of living. <a href="https://pccommissionflow.imgix.net/uploads/images/Item-4-Revised-Just-Transition-Framework-May-2022_2022-05-30-150759_nczh.pdf">A ‘just transition’</a> would distribute the costs, benefits and opportunities fairly.</p>
<p>The proposed connection fee is a good example of the principle. The fee is needed to cover the costs that electricity providers incur to build and maintain the capacity to generate and deliver additional energy when users’ private systems cannot provide enough.</p>
<p>Opposition to the connection fee reflects the interests of commercial users and wealthy individuals. They want access to backup power but are not willing to pay the costs of making it available ‘on demand’ when the sun goes down, the wind stops blowing or their own systems break down. They are supported by businesses who provide ‘cheap’ renewable energy solutions.</p>
<p>The debates have left the wider public confused. South Africa’s electricity supply has become increasingly unreliable and expensive. Many of those using solar at home appear to believe that they should not be charged for, as they see it, helping to solve electricity supply problems.</p>
<p>Our view is that both grid connection fees and structured feed-in arrangements are necessary to ensure greater fairness in the social distribution of Eskom’s financial woes. The burden of the costs should not disproportionately fall on the less wealthy middle class, the working class and the poor – or on future generations.</p>
<h2>Connecting the dots</h2>
<p>The confusion is aggravated because the South African government is in the process of separating Eskom into three separate components: generation, transmission and distribution. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-restructuring-south-africas-power-utility-wont-end-the-blackouts-114333">We have argued</a> that this is at best a misplaced priority which risks aggravating the country’s electricity problems. But it is also contributing to the confusion.</p>
<p>Eskom has two crises: a generation crisis and a financial crisis.</p>
<p>The generation crisis is the most visible to ordinary citizens because it manifests in staged power cuts when Eskom cannot generate and distribute enough electricity to meet demand, especially at peak times.</p>
<p>The financial crisis is more serious but has only been visible in the rapid increases in electricity tariffs over the last decade and reports of corruption. But the crisis is obvious when one considers that Eskom cannot afford to pay back its loans without regular cash transfers from government. While the current CEO <a href="https://www.biznews.com/energy/2021/06/10/eskom-ceo-debt-reduction">has been praised for ‘reducing Eskom’s debt levels’</a>, this mostly reflects <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2021/review/Chapter%208.pdf">bailouts from the government</a> not better financial management.</p>
<p>Recently, National Treasury has announced its intention to take over a large portion of Eskom’s debt. This confirms, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-energy-crisis-has-triggered-lots-of-ideas-why-most-are-wrong-130298">as we argued before</a>, that the public was going to have to pay for Eskom’s debt. </p>
<p>But the financial crisis could be aggravated by Government’s decision to <a href="https://presidency.gov.za/download/file/fid/2532">allow large-scale decentralised electricity generation</a>. While this may help to reduce power cuts, it will make Eskom’s financial problems worse. </p>
<p>Decentralised generation will also undermine municipal finances because they rely on levies on electricity sales to raise revenue.</p>
<h2>Why connection fees matter</h2>
<p>If businesses and wealthy households dramatically reduce their use of grid electricity there will be less revenue but also less scope to raise tariffs from the poorer remaining users. That is a deeply inequitable outcome which illustrates how flawed the policy process has been: no cost implications of these decisions has ever been published.</p>
<p>The financially unsustainable combination of grid defection and higher tariffs creates the so-called electricity utility death spiral. Under this scenario, the government and citizens either have to take on the costs or allow the utility to fail. Since failure would have a disastrous impact on government’s broader ability to borrow, the costs will inevitably be transferred to citizens through higher taxes and public debt levels, or reduced expenditure on public goods and services.</p>
<p>This is where grid connection fees come in. Wealthy households and businesses that choose to generate their own electricity and ‘defect from the grid’ often stay connected so that they can use electricity from the public supply as a backup. Put simply, they use the grid as insurance but no longer pay their fair share of the infrastructure, maintenance and other costs of maintaining an operational grid. Such costs have traditionally been covered by energy tariffs.</p>
<p>A (higher) grid connection fee for these defecting electricity users will reduce the financial losses and be less inequitable. But it will not prevent <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/cape-town-to-build-own-power-plants-buy-additional-electricity/">wealthier municipalities sourcing electricity elsewhere</a> and large companies <a href="https://energynews.pro/en/partnership-between-anglo-american-and-edf-renewables/">going entirely off grid</a> - those problems will require other solutions. </p>
<p>Some of those who are loudly objecting to such a policy are part of the small elite who can afford the large upfront costs of home solar energy systems. Others have simply misunderstood – or misrepresented – the purpose of the policy. </p>
<p>It is not to punish electricity users for generating electricity from solar or other sources. Rather it’s about ensuring equitable contributions to the costs of the grid.</p>
<p>A separate but related challenge is arising in municipalities. Households and domestic users not only want to use the municipal infrastructure as backup, but also to ‘feed in’ the excess energy from their rooftop solar panels when they have more than they need.</p>
<p>Many users don’t understand why they should have to pay a connection fee and why the credits they receive for the electricity they ‘feed in’ are so low. For example, Cape Town allows households to use solar power but they must pay a monthly fee to stay connected to the municipal supply. They will also have to buy an ‘advanced meter’ (costing around R10 000) and <a href="https://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/Financial%20documents/Electricity%20Consumptive%20Tariffs.pdf">pay an additional monthly administration fee</a>. Surplus power fed into the municipal grid is only paid as a ‘credit’ and at a rate less than a third of what the city charges to provide a supply. </p>
<p>However, after <a href="https://greenaudits.co.za/2014/09/16/residential-renewable-energy-generation-for-cape-town/">years of criticism and lobbying</a> by wealthier households, the City proposes to increase the rate and <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-07-25-bright-idea-cape-town-to-pay-cash-for-energy-fed-into-the-grid/">intends to ‘pay cash’</a> for such electricity. Whether this is equitable at the municipal level remains to be seen, but such dynamics will only compound national inequalities.</p>
<p>Grid connection charges and feed-in tariffs must reflect the real costs of building and running the system. The complexities involved provide fertile ground for critics and lobbyists to press for more favourable treatment for wealthier individuals. But for a ‘just transition’, the decentralisation of power generation must ensure that the costs and benefits are fairly distributed in society at large.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188299/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Muller has provided consulting services to a number of public entities including the Department of Water and Sanitation and Hidroelectrica Cahora Bassa. His pension has investments in conventional and renewable energy companies, including South Africa's Bushveld Minerals, which is developing 'grid scale' battery storage systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seán Mfundza Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The wealthy should not be allowed to opt out from their share of the costs of electricity production and Eskom’s debt.Seán Mfundza Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Johannesburg Institute for Advanced Study, University of JohannesburgMike Muller, Visiting Adjunct Professor, School of Governance, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882592022-08-05T17:19:41Z2022-08-05T17:19:41ZVacuum of ideas at ANC policy conference bodes ill for South Africa’s governing party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477859/original/file-20220805-7920-a3hr2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The governing ANC's policy proposals don't inspire confidence.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is in the throes of an unprecedented, multifaceted socio-economic crisis requiring substantive, impactful policy interventions. Yet, having attended the governing African National Congress’s recent five-yearly <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/08/01/read-in-full-ramaphosa-s-closing-adress-at-anc-policy-conference">national policy conference</a>, which was supposed to show how the party intends to steer the country forward, I wonder if it actually appreciates the enormity of the problems facing the nation. </p>
<p>A phrase from Italian philosopher and poet <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Dante-Alighieri">Alighieri Dante</a>’s 1320 poem Divine Comedy comes to mind: </p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://literarydevices.net/abandon-hope-all-ye-who-enter-here/">Abandon hope all ye who enter here</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">policy deliberations and proposals</a> fell hopelessly short of addressing the country’s pressing problems – <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=15407#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20Quarterly%20Labour,stands%20at%2034%2C5%25.">high unemployment</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-economy-has-taken-some-heavy-body-blows-can-it-recover-183165">poor economy</a>, <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/April-to-March%202020_21-presentation.pdf">high crime</a> and <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">massive corruption</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rape-is-endemic-in-south-africa-why-the-anc-government-keeps-missing-the-mark-188235">violence against against women</a>. </p>
<p>The subdued conference exposed a deficit of new policy thinking, and failed to provide solutions. It certainly did not live up to party leader and national president Cyril Ramaphosa’s declaration in his <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ANC-Today-29-July-2022-Policy-Conference-Edition.pdf">opening address</a> that the conference would be defining moment for the ANC and the country. </p>
<p>What followed was not a good omen for the governing party, which is seeking reelection <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/southafrica.htm">in 2024</a>. </p>
<p>This analysis is based on my reviews of two sources. The first was the <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Umrabulo-Policy-Document-18th-May-2022.pdf">ANC’s policy documents</a> that had been prepared to anchor deliberations of branches in preparation for the conference and the thematic commissions set up to tackle particular areas of policy. The second was the <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">reports to the plenaries</a> and the media presented by ANC luminaries. </p>
<p>In my view, there were mismatches between <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-08-01-crisis-the-anc-and-south-africa-makes-a-new-politics-all-the-more-urgent/">the crises facing the nation and proposed solutions</a>. There was a flood of small – or partial – <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/no-new-major-thinking-forthcoming-out-of-anc-policy-conference-despite-economic-challenges-booysen/">stabs at big problems</a>. A few big ideas came with the proviso that they may be “not affordable”. </p>
<h2>Paucity of ideas</h2>
<p>The deliberations were characterised by disingenuous, counter-factual policy pronouncements, and de facto denials of the ANC’s culpability in causing many of the current problems facing the country.</p>
<p>Foremost among the small stabs at major policy problems was the country’s high levels of unemployment. Beyond recognition of the problem, and the statement that there was a “sombre spirit” in the meeting of the breakaway commission that discussed the issue, nothing new emerged.</p>
<p>Delegates retreated into <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202010/south-african-economic-reconstruction-and-recovery-plan.pdf">existing economic plans</a> and reiterated the much stated view within the governing party that it has good policies – all that’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320549262_POLICY_IMPLEMENTATION_SOME_ASPECTS_AND_ISSUES">missing is good implementation</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/racism-in-south-africa-why-the-anc-has-failed-to-dismantle-patterns-of-white-privilege-187660">Racism in South Africa: why the ANC has failed to dismantle patterns of white privilege</a>
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</em>
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<p>Over the years, this has become an easy pardon for under-performance.</p>
<p>Absent was any acknowledgement that patronage networks as well as corruption and <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">state capture </a> – the funnelling of public resources for private gain – have become deeply embedded in the party, destroying public trust in it. Conference narratives gave at best timid references to better accountability.</p>
<p>Delegates did <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">condemn</a> high levels of crime and de facto rule by criminal networks, such as those running extortion rackets. But policy proposals on how to deal with the problem were largely absent. </p>
<p>Vague advocacy for better ethics in the party and government was all that was on offer.</p>
<p>Big policy ideas came in repeated proposals for a <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/604520/basic-income-grant-coming-for-south-africa-agency/">basic income grant</a> and implementation of <a href="https://www.health.gov.za/nhi/">National Health Insuranc</a>.</p>
<p>But, the prospects of a basic income grant have been dimmed because the state has already used available emergency funds to address unexpected crises such as COVID, flooding in <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-floods-wreaked-havoc-because-people-are-forced-to-live-in-disaster-prone-areas-181309">KwaZulu-Natal</a> and <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/collections/south-africa-flooding-kwazulu-natal-and-eastern-cape-2022">Eastern Cape</a>, and destruction of infrastructure during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-behind-social-unrest-in-south-africa-and-what-might-be-done-about-it-166130">July 2021 riots</a>. </p>
<p>New funding would depend on rearranging existing social relief and grant budgets, or another wealth tax.</p>
<p>Implementation of the National Health Insurance continues at a pace that’s almost imperceptible. Meanwhile, the country’s public health system is collapsing. The conference did agree to minor new ideas – such as a proposal to increase the number of ambulances. This is hardly the answer to the crisis in the health system. </p>
<h2>A government, or a protest movement?</h2>
<p>The conference <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/category/features/anc-2022-policy-conference/">bore testimony</a> to fact that the ANC remains confused about its role. It has governed the country for nearly three decades, but often protests against its own government. </p>
<p>Delegates lamented suffering due to the rising cost of living and unemployment, and <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/3157545/chemical-castration-child-rapists-27-july-2022/">condemned the scourge of gender-based violence</a>. Yet, the conference did not assume responsibility for the fact that it has been on the ANC’s watch that these problems have come to characterise South African society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rape-is-endemic-in-south-africa-why-the-anc-government-keeps-missing-the-mark-188235">Rape is endemic in South Africa. Why the ANC government keeps missing the mark</a>
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<p>There was no shortage of disingenuous policy statements.</p>
<p>On the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-behind-social-unrest-in-south-africa-and-what-might-be-done-about-it-166130">July 2021 unrest</a>, which cost over 350 lives, the conference concluded that it was the work of those ideologically opposed to the ANC’s advances in government. The conference offered no recognition that ANC internal factional politics had wreaked the havoc. </p>
<p>Regarding the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">dysfunctionality of local governments</a> – most of which are run by the ANC – the proffered solution was the government’s <a href="https://www.cogta.gov.za/ddm/">district development model</a>. It envisages the integration of local municipalities at district level, a process that may help bolster capacity and effective use of national funding at the local government level. </p>
<p>Similarly, there were minimalist pronouncements on forging a new electoral system. The relevant commission simply said, without evidence, that delegates had applied their minds to this problem. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-referendum-on-electoral-reform-in-south-africa-might-stir-up-trouble-186478">stalled reform process</a>, ordered by the Constitutional Court, is supposed to fundamentally change the post-apartheid electoral law to make it fairer by allowing independents <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">to contest provincial and national elections</a>. </p>
<p>To address the debilitating instability in local governments run by coalitions, the delegates proposed that future coalitions be based on legally binding contracts to avert their instability. There was no mention that the ANC in local government has been a prime destabilising force wherever it lost to opposition coalitions.</p>
<p>There were more unconvincing platitudes about the need to continue protecting the power utility <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, to pursue a state-owned bank, nationalise the South African Reserve Bank and promote local production of pharmaceuticals. </p>
<h2>Party weakness</h2>
<p>The poverty of policy ideas on offer was expected, given the ANC’s existential crisis. It is at its weakest moment ever, as <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-%20content/uploads/2022/07/ANC-Today-29-July-2022-Policy-Conference-Edition.pdf">Ramaphosa confessed</a>. </p>
<p>From the 1.6 million unverified members figure party spokesperson Pule Mabe <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/mabe-refutes-claims-that-anc-is-on-a-decline/">claimed in July</a>, a group of us were told on the sidelines of the conference that the party had only 600,000 members in good standing. </p>
<p>Organisational weakness was also evident in the modest (around 2,000) number of delegates. This is less than half the number who attended previous policy conferences. The ANC had also controlled access. Combined with the party’s <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2022-03-24-anc-takes-aim-at-new-party-funding-law/">funding constraints</a>, the <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-%20content/uploads/2022/07/ANC-Today-29-July-2022-Policy-Conference-Edition.pdf">“festival of ideas”</a> turned into quite a subdued affair. </p>
<p>On the organisational unity front, there were minimal outbreaks of factional contest, and disciplinary codes of behaviour helped hold the conference together. This also helped contain the proxy “ideological” battles over the party’s <a href="https://mg.co.za/politics/2022-07-31-anc-policy-conference-retains-ramaphosa-reform-agenda-including-step-aside-rule/">anti-corruption resolution</a>. This requires all those charged with criminal offences to leave their party and government positions.</p>
<p>The policy was <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/08/01/read-in-full-ramaphosa-s-closing-adress-at-anc-policy-conference">contested by some delegates</a>. But they didn’t muster enough support to get it removed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-trapped-again-what-kind-of-leaders-can-set-the-country-free-187704">South Africa is trapped again: what kind of leaders can set the country free</a>
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<p>All in all, the lack of sound policy proposals to address South Africa’s myriad challenges may suggest that the ANC has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ramaphosa-scolds-ruling-anc-losing-south-africans-trust-2022-07-29/">given up hope of making a difference to people’s lives</a>. This has implications for its electoral prospects.</p>
<p>If people’s hopes of it delivering a better future also dissipates, the party’s decline will be sealed. This will mean that the ANC, while probably remaining the biggest party, will increasingly fail to garner outright majorities and be forced into increasing numbers of <a href="https://theconversation.com/marriages-of-inconvenience-the-fraught-politics-of-coalitions-in-south-africa-167517">unstable coalition governments</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188259/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Booysen is affiliated with the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection. She writes in her personal capacity. </span></em></p>The deliberations were characterised by disingenuous, counter-factual policy pronouncements, and de facto denials of the ANC’s culpability in causing many of the current problems facing the country.Susan Booysen, Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.