tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/flight-4u9525-15654/articlesFlight 4U9525 – The Conversation2015-03-31T12:20:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/395932015-03-31T12:20:55Z2015-03-31T12:20:55ZRising number of inexperienced pilots may lead to more crashes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76592/original/image-20150331-1253-dqqlke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Not as easy as flicking on autopilot.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/caribb/98956751/">Doug via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been much media analysis of the range of factors involved in the crash of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-4u9525">Germanwings Flight 4U9525</a>, the low-cost airline owned by Lufthansa. However, as a retired US naval aviator and former United Airlines pilot, I have been less interested in the investigation of cockpit doors or the mental health of Andreas Lubitz, who is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32113507">suspected of deliberately crashing the plane in the Alps</a>. </p>
<p>What concerns me is how a pilot with <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11496066/Andreas-Lubitz-Everything-we-know-on-Tuesday-about-Germanwings-plane-crash-co-pilot.html">only 630 flight hours</a> was in the position to kill 149 people in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-crash-with-no-obvious-cause-we-must-wait-for-answers-from-germanwings-black-box-39278">state-of-the-art Airbus A320</a>, one of the most sophisticated jet aircraft on the market. Unfortunately, I find evidence of a troubling trend – in an increasingly competitive industry, many airlines are cutting costs by employing less experienced pilots.</p>
<p>As part of the research for my latest book, <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100289350">The Next Crash: How Short-Term Profit Seeking Trumps Airline Safety</a>, I analysed the flight experience, training and background information for the ten pilots involved in the five fatal passenger airline accidents involving pilot error in the US commercial airlines in the decade following September 11 2001. These were <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/nyregion/14pilot.html">Colgan Air in 2009</a>, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/flight-data-plane-on-wrong-runway/">Comair in 2006</a>, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/24/AR2006012401580.html">Corporate</a> and <a href="http://www.aviationpros.com/news/10393629/ntsb-joy-riding-pilots-caused-2004-pinnacle-crash">Pinnacle Airlines in 2004</a>, and <a href="http://abc13.com/archive/9322475/">American Airlines in 2001</a>. Although none of these crashes were the result of an alleged suicide, the findings are nonetheless revealing.</p>
<p>Four of the five crashes involved a regional air carrier, the low-cost area of the US airline industry that has rapidly expanded in recent years due to major airline outsourcing. Analysis revealed that 50% of these accident pilots had less than 1,000 hours of flight experience in the accident aircraft; 60% had been in their flight crew position for less than two years and almost a third crashed within their first year on the job. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76586/original/image-20150331-1240-9iax0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">State of the art: the Airbus A320.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/30/Airbus_A320-200_Airbus_Industries_(AIB)_%22House_colors%22_F-WWBA_-_MSN_001_(10276181983).jpg">Laurent Errera</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Nearly all had been trained in civilian flight programmes, not military flight schools, where historically pilots built up significant experience. Perhaps most alarming is that 50% of the accidents involved pilots who had received their basic training in accelerated professional pilot training programmes – just like First Officer Lubitz. All crashes had questions of professionalism or a lack of adherence to standard procedures as a cause.</p>
<h2>Cost cutting</h2>
<p>Like US air carriers, almost all major international airlines are eager to exploit the cost advantage of employing younger, less experienced – and therefore cheaper – pilots. In the past, a fledgling pilot had years to accumulate the requisite flight experience as he moved up from small propeller-driven planes to larger multi-engine aircraft before occupying the right seat of a jetliner. </p>
<p>With the advent of regional jets and proliferation of low-cost airlines flying mid-sized Airbus aircraft today, an accelerated career path such as First Officer Lubitz is not unusual. But this reduces the opportunity for co-pilots to develop as professionals before progressing to a position of greater responsibility. This loss of seasoning has led to the assignment of pilots who may not be operationally mature to positions previously occupied by highly experienced pilots, all to save airlines money. </p>
<p>To stay safe, the system increasingly relies on the experience and professionalism of airline employees who are already stressed, fatigued and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/28/germanwings-crash-exposes-pressure-pilotes">working more while earning less</a>. As one co-pilot I interviewed reported, employees are so distracted that: “it’s almost a miracle that there wasn’t bent metal and dead people” at his airline. Although opinions like this are pervasive, employees’ issues do not concern the right people – namely airline executives, aviation industry regulators, politicians, watchdog groups, or even the flying public – in the right way often enough.</p>
<h2>New rules needed</h2>
<p>In the case of First Officer Lubitz, a longer career trajectory might have ensured that his health problems would have become evident. It is time to hold airlines around the world responsible for the increasing risks their hiring policies have imposed on the flying public. </p>
<p>In the US, the FAA has recently increased the minimum hiring criteria for a commercial airline pilot <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=14838">to 1,500 flight hours</a> – double the flight experience First Officer Lubitz had amassed. If this accident has taught us anything, it has shown it is time for international air carriers to follow suit.</p>
<p>Aviation industry risk-management processes have not kept pace with a rapidly changing environment. While the FAA claims that this is the <a href="http://www.faa.gov/news/speeches/news_story.cfm?newsId=10032">“Golden Age of Safety”</a>, and other aviation researchers assure us the chance of dying in an airline accident is infinitesimal, 70% of US commercial pilots I studied believed a major airline accident would happen soon. </p>
<p>Who should we believe? As one captain explained: “Everybody wants their $99 ticket” but added: “you don’t get <a href="http://www.biography.com/people/chesley-sullenberger-20851353">[Captain] Sully</a> for ninety-nine bucks”. Instead, you you might get an accident waiting to happen.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Fraher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cost cutting by commercial airlines has led to a worrying rise in inexperienced pilots.Amy Fraher, Senior Lecturer in Human Resource Management and Organisational Behaviour , University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394802015-03-29T14:35:50Z2015-03-29T14:35:50ZThere are some people who commit ‘murder-suicide’ but they are extremely rare<p>It seems beyond doubt that the co-pilot of Germanwings <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/flight-4u9525">flight 4U9525</a> made a conscious decision to destroy the plane and kill the passengers. As with all other “murder-suicides”, this is a psychological phenomenon that demands an explanation, and action to prevent future tragedies as far as that is possible. </p>
<p>But it’s not simple – and while it is entirely right to understand the psychological make-up of the young man who appears to have been responsible it’s not as simple as blaming “mental illness”, much less “depression”.</p>
<p>It is very rare indeed to be a victim of a murder-suicide event and in those rare circumstances where risk is associated with mental health, it’s almost always associated with the risk to the person with the mental health issue, whether from their own actions or from violence directed at them by other people. Murder-suicide events should be seen as related to a specific individual and their particular circumstances, rather than simplistically explained in terms of a person “having a mental illness”. </p>
<p>Of course these types of actions can each be very different. It can involve family members or those close to or known to the perpetrator – for example colleagues <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/apr/17/columbine-massacre-gun-crime-us">or classmates</a>. Others might involve strangers and, in the case of Andreas Lubitz on the Germanwings flight, probably a mix of both. Some actions may be more detached than others, for example the use of a gun or in this case an action from a closed cockpit. Each tragedy is unique.</p>
<p>However we do know some things about why people violently attack others and then end their own lives. We know from the other (admittedly very rare) murder-suicide events, that these attacks are usually carried out by young men (young men are, in our society, much more likely to be aggressive), a sense of alienation and resentment against other people and society (often fuelled by very real prejudice and unjust social circumstances), a sense of disillusionment and hopelessness, and attraction towards notorious glamour – often, ironically, fuelled <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanwings-coverage-a-kick-in-the-teeth-for-people-who-suffer-from-mental-health-issues-39446">by the kinds of headlines</a> that I and my colleagues in mental health resent. And of course ready access to lethal weapons.</p>
<p>Some of these emotions and belief systems are recognisably similar to the misery suffered by many millions of people who, of course, have no intention to harm themselves or others (even if they occasionally take a few days off work, seek professional help or even seek a medical solution). It’s disrespectful and discriminatory to suggest that, because people in these violent, alienated or resentful frames of mind have some similarities with people in more understandable distress, depressed people should not be allowed to fly passenger jets (as the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3015033/PIERS-MORGAN-Depressed-pilots-like-Germanwings-Andreas-Lubitz-medication-mental-illness-not-flying-passenger-planes-s-not-insensitive-s-protecting-lives.html">Daily Mail and Piers Morgan</a> have implied) or that “depression” or “mental illness” can somehow explain these events.</p>
<p>James Ogloff, a psychologist and the director of Swinburne University of Technology’s Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/germanwings-plane-crash-murdersuicide-usually-involves-psychopathy-or-psychosis-experts-20150327-1m8ygt.html">has said</a> that those who commit murder-suicide “have more in common with a suicidal person than a murderer” – but we know of course that the vast majority of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-report-maps-global-suicide-problem-for-the-first-time-31176">more than 800,000 people</a> who take their lives each year have no intention of taking other lives. Murder-suicide events suggest, then, people “particularly resentful and angry against society broadly, or against a particular organisation”.</p>
<p>In circumstances when these kinds of events do happen we need to be clear about how rare they are and create a culture whereby people struggling with mental health problems will feel comfortable with sharing those ideas with their friends, their relatives, their colleagues and their bosses. </p>
<h2>Identifying alienation and intent</h2>
<p>In the US and in other countries, there have been instances of murder-suicide events in places such as schools. Last year Elliot Rodger killed six people and injured another 14 in Isla Vista, California before turning his gun on himself. Such actions affect the more than those directly involved, particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-private-tragedy-of-living-with-a-mass-killer-in-the-family-27250">the families</a> of those who decide to kill others before themselves. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49573/original/c2jwv27q-1401206936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Vigil at Virginia Tech in 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nrbelex/471661031/sizes/l">Nrbelex</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Part of the enormously complex picture here is the ready accessibility of lethal weapons. That’s why America, with its culture of domestic gun-ownership, suffers disproportionately from these kinds of tragedies. In the Germanwings tragedy, it does appear at first sight that the co-pilot used his aircraft as a weapon (something we know is not impossible). </p>
<p>But it doesn’t really make sense to suggest that we would be protected if people with mental health problems were prevented from obtaining pilots’ licences. To proceed down that route seems impractical – we wouldn’t want to identify common and, in this context, irrelevant mental health issues (such as “depression”), since they are only tangentially related to this kind of behaviour. In any case, these are routinely screened for. </p>
<p>What we would have to do is identify young men with a sense of alienation and resentment against other people and society, a sense of disillusionment and hopelessness and the intention to kill others in a bid for notoriety. We should all be on our guard for such traits, though demonising people with mental health problems will not prevent this kind of event from happening.</p>
<p>So what should – what could – we do? I think we should encourage people to be open to their mental health and psychological well-being, and to seek help when necessary. We all share idiosyncrasies in our psychological make-up, and all of us experience problems from time-to-time which, when serious, get labelled as “mental health problems”. But these have nothing to do with the rare actions of mostly lone individuals.</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, we should also look to common-sense security precautions. Many airlines have introduced new security regulations to ensure that <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanwings-crash-the-ins-and-outs-of-the-two-person-rule-39453">there are at least two members</a> of the flight crew on the flight-desk at any one time. This is a perfectly reasonable response. It remains to be seen what else could have been done by the airline to prevent this terrible tragedy but there will no doubt be a close investigation and intelligent recommendations. These recommendations may well include calls for greater openness and acceptance of psychological issues and those mental health problems that are common to all of us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39480/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kinderman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Understanding the psychology of tragedies need not involve knee-jerk prejudice.Peter Kinderman, Professor of Clinical Psychology, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394532015-03-27T18:30:29Z2015-03-27T18:30:29ZGermanwings crash: the ins and outs of the two-person rule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76305/original/image-20150327-16086-1eo6jns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Two hands on the wheel is twice as safe.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">keys by dextroza/www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As evidence mounts that Germanwings flight 4U9525 was crashed deliberately by its co-pilot who <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanwings-flight-4u9525-a-victim-of-the-deadlock-between-safety-and-security-demands-39386">locked the flight’s captain out of the cockpit</a>, there have been renewed calls to enforce a “two-person rule”, where two members of the flight crew are on the flight deck at all times.</p>
<p>Within hours of the crash, steps were taken to enact this: the Canadian government <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/germanwings-flight-4u9525-canadian-airlines-told-to-have-2-people-in-the-cockpit-1.3010494">made it a mandatory requirement</a>, and the UK Civil Aviation Authority <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/uk-regulator-asks-airlines-to-review-cockpit-occupancy-rules-1427397688">urged UK airlines to review their rules</a>, although some airlines including budget airlines Ryanair and Flybe already enforced the rule. </p>
<p>The idea dates back to the days of the Cold War, where two operators were required, typically with two separate keys, for drastic action such as launching nuclear weapons. The procedure is still in force today, to offer protection against the actions of rogue individuals. But the concept of the “buddy system”, that tells us not to be alone during critical or risky moments, is widely in place – from divers heading underwater, firefighters entering burning buildings or bankers making large withdrawals, and to school-aged children wandering out of sight of adults. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76306/original/image-20150327-16105-w5avwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">When it comes to nuclear war, it makes sense not to leave it within the ability of a single person.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scott Wagers/US DoD</span></span>
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<p>In essence, the safety and integrity of actions and environments is improved by requiring the co-operation of two at a time. This way no single individual will be caught without help should they need it, and no one will be in a situation where the actions of a single person in a key role go unmonitored.</p>
<h2>Flight rules</h2>
<p>While co-pilot Andreas Lubitz may have considered his actions, it’s likely that he moved on the spur of the moment – on quite a short flight there was no way of knowing whether the captain, Patrick Sonderheimer, would have needed to visit the toilet, leaving him alone in the cockpit.</p>
<p>But it’s clear that being alone in the cockpit was all that was required for Lubitz to take himself and 149 others to their deaths on the slopes of the French Alps. Had the captain or any other member of the crew been there, they could have reversed any efforts to override the autopilot, or summoned other crew or passengers to help subdue Lubitz if necessary.</p>
<p>As it’s impossible to require that neither of the pilots leave the cockpit during flights, adopting the two-person rule seems to be a good move in order to increase the safety of flights from the potential for actions such as this, or in the event that the remaining pilot is incapacitated, perhaps by a heart attack. Current measures protect from actions outwith the cockpit, but provide little defence from those coming from within.</p>
<h2>A human deterrent</h2>
<p>Had Sonderheimer been replaced by a member of the cabin crew that morning, would Lubitz have believed that he had an opportunity to do what he did? The two-person rule, more than only enforcing, also dissuades and serves as a deterrent. Undeterred, a pilot set on crashing their aircraft could still override the autopilot, but – except in situations where they were able to overpower their fellow in the cockpit quickly – it would only be a matter of time before it was detected, reversed, or the absent pilot was able to return to the flight deck.</p>
<p>So it’s perhaps surprising that the two-person rule is not mandatory in the aviation industry worldwide but is left up to individual authorities. In the US, the Federal Aviation Administration <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/security-experts-say-us-rules-aim-to-prevent-lone-pilot-scenario/2015/03/26/ee240db8-d3cc-11e4-ab77-9646eea6a4c7_story.html">made two in the cockpit a requirement</a> a year after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 – along with the flight deck door reinforcement that contributed to the crash of flight 4U9525.</p>
<p>The experience of those airlines that have adopted the rule is that it requires minimal effort or organisational change. All that is required is that a cabin crew member takes the absent pilot’s place in the cockpit, and may leave only after they return. It is an easy fix with the potential to prevent cases such as this – a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/mar/16/duncancampbell">similar Egyptian Airlines incident in 1999</a> left 229 dead, and there have been <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-26/eight-pilot-suicides-recorded-in-past-40-years-killing-hundreds-of-passengers-crew-and-people-on-the-ground/">at least eight other “pilot suicides” in the last 40 years</a> – as well as other situations that could arise.</p>
<p>It’s clear that this has been rapidly taken up by airlines outside the US in the last 24 hours: EasyJet, Virgin, Air Transat, Emirates, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Air Canada, Air New Zealand and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germanwings-plane-crash-lufthansa-introduces-two-person-rule-in-cockpit-following-disaster-10139176.html">Lufthansa</a>, the parent of Germanwings, have all announced they would implement the two-person rule. But ideally this would be adopted as a mandatory procedure worldwide – and sooner rather than later – as it can be done almost without cost, and with the potential to prevent the repeat of such tragedies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Rio Tinto receives funding from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes), a foundation of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC).</span></em></p>It takes two people to launch a nuclear missile - it’s time the same level of safety returned to the cockpit.Daniel Rio Tinto, Doctoral Researcher in Political Science and International Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394462015-03-27T14:52:41Z2015-03-27T14:52:41ZGermanwings coverage a kick in the teeth for people who suffer from mental health issues<p>While the world mourns the lives lost in the devastating <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/24/germanwings-plane-crash-what-we-know">Germanwings plane crash</a>, media speculation over what happened has intensified. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32063587">French prosecutor earlier concluded</a> that co-pilot Andreas Lubitz had sealed himself in the cockpit in order to “destroy this plane”.</p>
<p>Was this an act of terrorism, the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/andreas-lubitz-german-minister-says-copilot-who-intentionally-crashed-germanwings-plane-had-no-terrorism-background-10136633.html">media has wondered</a>. Was <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3012937/Germanwings-pilot-Andreas-Lubitz-28-praised-exceptional-flying-skills-rising-star-fleet.html">Lubitz suicidal</a>? Did he have a <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/depressed-germanwings-co-pilot-andreas-lubitz-5409439">previous record of depression</a>? These are all fair questions to ask, but the coverage raises an additional issue: are all the media reports about the mental state of the pilot going to reinforce the already widespread stigma around depression and mental illness?</p>
<h2>The tabloid perspective</h2>
<p>The newspapers have already been awash with headlines such as “Killer pilot suffered from depression” (Daily Mirror), “Madman in cockpit” (The Sun) and “Why on earth was he allowed to fly?” (Daily Mail). All suggested that mental health issues played a part in the pilot’s decision. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76270/original/image-20150327-16127-14jyfzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How the red-tops covered the Andreas Lubitz revelation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Vass</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is worth bearing in mind that as the papers went to press there had still been no official confirmation as to whether Lubitz had previously suffered from or was suffering from depression or any other mental illness. In a statement, the chief executive of Lufthansa, Carsten Spohr, <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/lufthansa-press-conference-andreas-lubitz-had-interruption-pilot-training-ceo-carsten-1860350">confirmed only that</a> during Lubitz’s training, six years prior to the crash, there had been a brief interruption. </p>
<p>This sort of interruption is not uncommon. Spohr neither offered a reason nor discussed whether this might have contributed to the events of March 24. The source of the reports that the co-pilot was severely depressed during that period is the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/germanwings-co-pilot-had-serious-depressive-episode-bild-071238516--finance.html">German tabloid newspaper Bild</a>, but it has been widely assumed to be true. </p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How the Daily Mail covered the story.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Vass</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whether or not this turns out to be the case, The Sun already seems to be suggesting that Lubitz crashed the plane because he was a “madman”. Does this mean we should worry that all people who suffer from mental illness are capable of such acts? Are people who have been depressed in the past unsafe to fly planes? Are they more likely to commit acts of terrorism? The awkward reality is that there is not necessarily any link between historic depression and a tragedy like this one. </p>
<h2>The track record</h2>
<p>It is important to point out that the poor headlines quoted are not indicative of how all newspapers covered the story. The front pages of the Guardian and the Financial Times both stuck to simple factual headlines and avoided speculation about the mental health of the pilot. The Independent used an attention-grabbing headline “Killer in the cockpit” but its reporting was straight.</p>
<p>Unfortunately the papers that were less responsible are the ones that most people read. And it is certainly not the first example of our media using mental illness to reach highly speculative conclusions. In 2013 The Sun <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/the-sun-newspapers-1200-killed-by-mental-patients-headline-labelled-irresponsible-and-wrong-8863893.html">attracted criticism</a> when it published the headline, “<a href="http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5183994/1200-killed-by-mental-patients-in-shock-10-year-toll.html">1,200 killed by mental patients</a>”. </p>
<p>When you read the article, it became clear that criminals with mental-health conditions had gone on to commit violent crimes due to failings in the mental-health support system. This was not something apparent in the headline, and neither was the fact that the deaths were over a period of ten years and the figures had stayed broadly the same for decades. Numerous critics also made the point that the article reinforced stigma against people with mental health problems. </p>
<p>At the University of Aberdeen, <a href="http://www.abdn.ac.uk/ims/research/neuroscience/mood-disorders.php">we examined</a> the media portrayal of anti-depressants in UK newspapers between 2007 and 2010. The results highlighted that around a fifth of the headlines referred to a crime story, raising worrying questions about how people taking anti-depressants are portrayed. It was to hard to avoid the conclusion that the press were making associations between criminality and taking anti-depressant medication. </p>
<h2>The effects</h2>
<p>So what are the potential effects of the Germanwings headlines? Will other airline pilots now fear for their jobs if they have been open about any prior struggles with low mood and depression? Will others now avoid seeking treatment? </p>
<p>These worries will not be limited to the world of aviation. What about doctors, chief executives or teachers. The latest statistics show that one in four of us will experience a mental health problem this year. So does this mean that 25% of pilots are at risk of committing similar acts to Lubitz? </p>
<p>In an interview with BBC Newsbeat, Paul Farmer, the chief executive of mental health charity Mind addressed similar questions. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/32084110">He said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Everyone is trying to understand what happened in this terrible tragic plane crash, but there is a real danger that a correlation is being made between depression and this act, which is overly simplistic and has no evidence attached to it all …</p>
<p>The impression which can be given is that somehow people with depression are dangerous, whereas there’s no evidence to suggest that’s the case. There are thousands of people who work in stressful and important jobs who battle with depression and do their jobs very well.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Farmer is spot on. Once again, the popular press has potentially done untold damage to people who suffer from mental illness. The Germanwings tragedy is bad enough without this unnecessary collateral damage. </p>
<hr>
<p>For further information about Mind, click <a href="http://www.mind.org.uk/">here</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nooreen receives funding from the Chief Scientist Office.</span></em></p>Tabloid assumptions that depression lay behind the Germanwings tragedy are damagingly premature.Nooreen Akhtar, Research Training Fellow in the Psychiatry Research Group, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393862015-03-26T13:46:26Z2015-03-26T13:46:26ZGermanwings flight 4U9525: a victim of the deadlock between safety and security demands<p>It seems incredible that a pilot of a passenger airline could be locked out of the cockpit. But analysis from the cockpit voice recorder recovered from Germanwings flight 4U9525 after it ploughed into the Southern Alps in France has revealed that this is what happened and that one of the two pilots <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32062278">had been trying to get into the cockpit</a> before the crash.</p>
<p>An initial explanation that the pilot at the controls was incapacitated, perhaps from a heart attack, has since given way to an alternative given by French investigators: that the co-pilot in the cockpit – named in reports as Andreas Lubitz – deliberately prevented the captain from entering <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/26/germanwings-flight-4u9525-deliberately-flown-into-mountain-says-prosecutor">in order to destroy the aircraft</a>. </p>
<p>Following the <a href="http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf">September 11 attacks</a> in New York in 2001, passenger aircraft <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1629465.stm">cockpit doors</a> have been <a href="http://www.britishairways.com/travel/security/public/en_gb">reinforced</a> in order to be made secure, and even <a href="http://northamerica.airbus-group.com/north-america/usa/Airbus-Defense-and-Space/news/press.en_20020521_cert_e.html">bulletproof</a>.</p>
<p>Access to the cockpit must be locked during flight, preventing passengers from forcing entry onto the flight deck so that pilots can safely fly the aircraft and manage any situation without worrying about potential hijackers. For the safety of the pilots the cockpit door must open at the pilot’s command from the flight deck, for example when there is no apparent risk of malicious attack. The outside of the cockpit door is <a href="http://northamerica.airbus-group.com/north-america/usa/Airbus-Defense-and-Space/news/press.en_20020521_cert_e.html">secured by a keypad</a>, to which the crew have the codes. But the request from the keypad to open the door <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/mar/26/airbus-safety-video-shows-cockpit-door-entry-procedure-germanwings-crash">must be confirmed by the pilot</a> who remains inside.</p>
<p>It has become apparent that these two aspects – safety and security – are not always achievable at the same time. In the event of an incident like this, they even work against each other.</p>
<h2>A trade-off between safety and security</h2>
<p>People often confuse “security” and “safety”. In Chinese the two words are exactly the same. However, conceptually they are different.</p>
<p>Security offers protection from intentional attacks, while safety is to prevent from natural accidents. While some security incidents can be accidental, or made to look accidental, some element of usually malicious intent is involved. </p>
<p>The trade-off in both security and safety risks in this context is hard because the probability of accidents can be modelled while human intention cannot. One could try to estimate the probability of someone having bad intentions, especially pilots, but in the end it’s not possible to square one with the other – it is to compare apples with oranges.</p>
<p>With the ultimate goal of protecting the lives of those on board, the processes by which the cockpit door is open and closed is crucial. Closing the door is not always right, even though the flight may be threatened by potential terrorists. That a pilot on the flight deck must open the door to his fellow officer outside the door is not beneficial if the crew remaining on the deck inside are incapacitated or unwilling to do so.</p>
<h2>Timing and context is key</h2>
<p>Feature interaction manifests itself in the way hardware and software interacts, such as in the design of lifts, vehicles or even smart homes. In order to avoid problematic interactions priority needs to be assigned to those features that are paramount – on aircraft, this is protecting the lives of passengers. The key to this is context and timing. </p>
<p>How can the electronic, robotic controller of the cockpit doors collaborate with the human crew member desperately looking for ways to gain entry to the flight deck? Knocking, or even smashing down the door is not enough – because potential terrorists may do the same, and so these eventualities will have been catered for in the initial design. </p>
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<p>In this case, an <a href="http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2597999">adaptive user interface mechanism</a>, which has been used to simplify complicated software systems, could enhance the usability of an otherwise complex security system. Mobile payment systems, such as Apple Pay, have demonstrated it’s possible to simplify the interface to otherwise complex security systems. For example, users do not need to carry credit cards yet can still properly certify their transactions. Such time-saving elements to verify security could be, in such a contingency as this, a life-saving feature.</p>
<p>Control of the cockpit door must be adaptive to context of the situation, providing a means to bypass the risk of a situation where flight crew are locked out of the cockpit. Had the robotic door controller understood there was a reason the pilot at the controls could not confirm the entrance of the pilot outside – by registering a malfunctioning ejection seat, for example, or reading dying vital signs from a heart monitor – it could override the security requirements and allow the pilot to reenter the cockpit. </p>
<p>We need to reassess the <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/28980">risks and arguments</a> around safety and security in the context of aviation, and find ways of <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/39643">bringing together</a> hardware, software, and the flight crew themselves – perhaps through <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/34135/">health monitoring devices</a> – in order to ensure that both these demands work together, and do not become a threat in themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yijun Yu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The aims of safety and security are not always on the same team, sometimes with disastrous results.Yijun Yu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Computing and Communications, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393142015-03-26T03:20:42Z2015-03-26T03:20:42ZHow safe is air travel today?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75929/original/image-20150325-30445-o3k1px.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to the statistics, modern airliners are safer than ever.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/shebalso/12066342295/in/photolist-jogabp-f68XyY-akADsR-gGKiDN-4Bn765-699H83-97kGs3-6dRdUA-amzdy1-dBPGhp-doRJcQ-9bkuWj-5Uctjw-4hQ8mP-77VUv8-DHfqJ-4BVqju-5wCufL-3aK9BR-4B7n1D-6qK6y6-7BFA1G-73risf-ctodsQ-6Zdh4V-6tFhv2-9MNRNu-hPh1KP-7VVojT-4ZRG4T-dmAcxB-g1CXZ8-cKxs1-cLxtvs-fpr2L-2BK9Qm-aeKv7J-526DEz-8NJnAQ-7xN8qb-punemm-3RESah-7A6NKP-dYMouW-asPv9R-8u8kLc-asPvuD-d7oQTC-d7kPWY-5ujSnd">John/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In light of the news of another <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-crash-with-no-obvious-cause-we-must-wait-for-answers-from-germanwings-black-box-39278">tragic airline crash</a>, and following in the wake of several other <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh370">high profile</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh17">air disasters</a>, it might be natural to ask whether air travel is becoming less safe.</p>
<p>In fact, according to the numbers, air travel is safer than at almost any point in the history of commercial flight. </p>
<p>While the number of fatalities in some recent crashes has been high, the number of overall fatal accidents in recent years has dropped to its lowest point since the dawn of the jet age. Also, as more and more people take to the skies each year, the numbers of fatalities per liftoff or per flight hour have also dropped dramatically.</p>
<p>Below we can see that 2014 had the lowest number of fatal airline accidents (planes with over 14 passengers, excluding hijackings) since 1942.</p>
<p>Even though the total trajectory is downward, there are peaks and troughs. The total number of casualties in 2014, for example, was significantly higher than 2013, but still well below the average for the first decade of the 21st century, or any previous decade back to the 1940s.</p>
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<p>Excepting the September 11, 2001, attacks in the United States, the number of hijackings and fatalities from hijackings has also dropped since the last decades of the 20th century.</p>
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<p>The frequency of accidents also needs to be put in the context of the number of planes in the air. Over the years, the number of flights each day has ballooned, yet the number of fatal accidents has declined.</p>
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<p>Most fatal accidents occur during approach to the airfield for landing, fewer occur during cruise. Even here, the numbers have dropped in several categories since the 1980s.</p>
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<p>These figures show that jets are significantly safer than <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turboprop">turboprops</a>, particularly if you look at the number of accidents per million flight hours.</p>
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<p>So, according to the numbers, and despite variations year-on-year, air travel today is generally safer than it has ever been and much safer than other modes of transportation. That doesn’t mean it is risk free, but the odds of any individual being involved in a fatal accident are at historic lows.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In light of another tragic airline crash, it’s natural to ask whether air travel is becoming less safe. In fact, air travel is safer than at almost any point in history.Emil Jeyaratnam, Data + Interactives Editor, The ConversationTim Dean, EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393092015-03-25T05:41:38Z2015-03-25T05:41:38ZRecovering the bodies from the Germanwings air crash in the Alps<p>The investigation into the crash of Germanwings Flight 4U9525 has begun, and with it the process of locating and recovering the 150 victims, including <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-25/two-australians-in-germanwings-flight-named/6347382">two Australians</a>.</p>
<p>Answers will come later, once the blackbox data are analysed and the dual aspects of the recovery –- the aircraft and the victims -– are complete.</p>
<p>The crash site will be treated as a crime scene, even if the crash was an accident. Criminal charges may follow for negligence at a later stage, for example. But full evidential recovery will take time, as the scene is remote and dangerous.</p>
<p>It’s early spring in Europe, nights are cold and days short, add to this the fact that the plane crashed into the side of a mountain –- treacherous terrain even in the best of conditions.</p>
<p>The time available each day for evidence and body recovery will be cut short by the environmental conditions. As a consequence, the crash site is going to pose challenges for the recovery and identification of the victims.</p>
<p>But some aspects of the crash site will actually facilitate victim identification: the cold will slow decomposition, and the remoteness and altitude of the location means there will be less scavenger activity. Both factors will reduce the amount of important identification information being lost, such as fingerprints.</p>
<h2>Looking for clues</h2>
<p>These conditions also mean that the recovery teams don’t have to rush to protect the remains (except from further inclement weather such as snow storms). This could help the crash investigators as the more information that can be collected from the scene before anything is touched or moved, the better chance they have of figuring out exactly what happened.</p>
<p>The positions and fragmentation of the victims will help them piece together the last minutes before the plane crashed. The debris field from a plane that exploded and disintegrated in the air presents very differently from a plane that crashed into the ground at speed but intact.</p>
<p>Perhaps most significantly, the authorities have a very good idea of exactly who was on board, providing what is known as “presumptive identities” for the victims. </p>
<p>A confirmed list of passengers and crew on board allows authorities to collect the ante-mortem information (dental charts, DNA samples and fingerprints from homes and places of work) in preparation for matching against the post-mortem information obtained from the victims once they are recovered.</p>
<p>Facial recognition is never a suitable method for identifying victims. Instead the international disaster victim identification teams gathering to perform examinations of the victims will focus on characteristics known to provide reliable information, which is DNA, fingerprints and dental matches.</p>
<h2>Past disasters</h2>
<p>Mass disaster planning is now a very advanced process, with <a href="http://www.interpol.int/INTERPOL-expertise/Forensics/DVI">guides available</a> providing information on best practice. These guides have been primarily developed to manage scenes and investigative processes following transport incidents and terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>So emergency plans will be kicking in, preparing to manage this situation to exacting standards.</p>
<p>Consequently, although the conditions are incredibly difficult, unlike with the Malaysia Airlines <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh17">Flight MH17</a> incident, all victims will be returned to their families.</p>
<p>This process will be performed according to Interpol standards, as repatriating the victims with dignity and respect will be uppermost in the minds of those tasked with identifying them.</p>
<h2>Correct identification is vital</h2>
<p>Also of topmost importance is getting those identifications right. In the past, victims of mass fatality incidents have been misidentified. Recently, this included children who died in the South Korean ferry disaster and whose bodies were <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-ferry-some-children-s-bodies-misidentified-1.2621625">returned to the wrong families</a>.</p>
<p>Misidentifications also occurred following the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, when the Australian Federal Police <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/Asia-tsunami/Fears-mount-of-wrongful-cremations/2005/01/11/1105423487914.html">expressed fears</a> that Australians and other nationals were being misidentified and cremated as Thais.</p>
<p>The tsunami disaster went far beyond the scope of any mass fatality plan at the time, with the number of deceased numbering more than 200,000. This event was unprecedented, and lessons were certainly learnt about contingency planning for the worst possible scenarios.</p>
<p>It was an incredibly complex, multinational effort and experts from 39 countries were involved in the identification process; thousands of victims were identified and repatriated.</p>
<p>But, more than 10 years on, the bodies of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-tsunami-anniversary-unclaimed-idUSKBN0K10H020141223">369 victims remain unidentified</a>. Thai police hold little hope that they will ever be returned to their loved ones. They will remain nameless forever.</p>
<p>The correct management of the victims of mass fatality incidents, such as the loss of Flight 4U 9525, is not only important for the deceased, but is of paramount importance for the families and loved ones left behind to prevent further psychological trauma.</p>
<p>The teams in place to carry out this difficult task will be acutely aware of the weight of responsibility on their shoulders. They need to get every identification right, regardless of how long that takes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The mountainous terrain of the crash site of Germanwings flight 4U9525 will be a challenge for recovering the 150 people killed in the accident.Xanthe Mallett, Senior Lecturer in Forensic Criminology, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393032015-03-25T04:32:39Z2015-03-25T04:32:39ZFlying low during an emergency: from the pilot’s point of view<p>We climbed out over the Mediterranean after take-off from Barcelona, veered off the Spanish coast, and pointed the nose northeast. Soon we’d be talking to controllers in Marseille and make landfall near Toulon. From there onward, sometimes taking a morsel of Italy, often across Switzerland, then further north, to our base in Copenhagen.</p>
<p>Although a full-time professor, I was flying part-time as a co-pilot for an airline much like Germanwings. We’d typically fly Copenhagen-Barcelona back and forth, briefing the two flights in the crew room beforehand: route, times, crew members for the trip, equipment and instruments, weather, fuel, winds aloft, expected turbulence.</p>
<p>In good visibility we could follow the Rhein river and see ancient towns -— Worms, Heidelberg and Freiburg -— and fields, forests, roads and mountains glide underneath us peacefully. Peering down at them from some 40,000 feet was one of the greatest aspects of my side job.</p>
<p>On the home-bound leg, after leaving Barcelona, the French coastline would swim into view only reluctantly, freeing itself from the haze of a placid spring or summer Mediterranean.</p>
<p>And behind it -— formidably, massively -— the Alps.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75905/original/image-20150325-4194-1wbe7tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial view of the zone in the French Alps where a Germanwings Airbus A320 crashed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Emile Chauvot</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Navigating through the Alps</h2>
<p>The Alps always were a forbidding obstacle, or praised protective barrier, for Europeans.</p>
<p>In 218 BCE, Hannibal, whose elephants weighed only about a tenth of our Boeing, had his own share of emergencies on his way to Rome. He lost many pack animals and supplies during a clash with barbarians in a pass near Mt du Chat.</p>
<p>But Hannibal lived on different time constants. His response to the emergency was to march into Chambery, strip it of its horses, beasts of burden, food and supplies, and then burn the town.</p>
<p>Today, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-crash-with-no-obvious-cause-we-must-wait-for-answers-from-germanwings-black-box-39278">remains of Germanwings 4U9525</a> lie not far from where Hannibal is likely to have crossed.</p>
<p>The crashed Airbus 320 was travelling from Barcelona, in Spain, to Duesseldorf, in Germany, with six crew members and 144 passengers on board, including two Australians.</p>
<p>The causes of the accident are under investigation.</p>
<p>But if there was an emergency on board a flight like that, the time constants and pressures would be very different. A dire emergency over the Alps would be a pressurisation problem, particularly a sudden one.</p>
<h2>Emergency onboard an aircraft</h2>
<p>Airplane cabins do not get fed oxygen from bottles. Rather, normal outside air is brought in and pressurised so that its density makes it breathable and livable.</p>
<p>Pressurisation systems can fail, though they seldom do. A sudden decompression is one of those rare, extremely low-probability/high-consequence events for which it is hard to maintain meaningful proficiency. Particularly because there is much to do, so many things to coordinate, with so little margin of error and few alternative options.</p>
<p>If the cabin pressure goes, you grab and don your oxygen mask, flick switches so as to establish communications through the mask, and then you have to get the aircraft down.</p>
<p>Suppress the loud warning horn if you can. In the back, masks will have dropped automatically to provide chemically generated oxygen for passengers and cabin crew for the next minutes.</p>
<p>The drill needs to go by heart, and quickly:</p>
<ul>
<li>Oxygen masks and regulators: on, 100% oxygen</li>
<li>Crew communications: establish</li>
<li>Pressurisation mode selector: manual</li>
<li>Outflow valve: close</li>
<li>Passenger signs: on</li>
<li>Passenger oxygen: on</li>
<li>Emergency descent: initiate.</li>
</ul>
<p>The cockpit masks inflate around the pilot’s head. They are like an emergency clamp—- squeezing, claustrophobic, with baffles and flaps seeming to live deep inside to get you the oxygen you need, or more, with which you need to learn to breathe in tandem.</p>
<p>Before descending, you try to point the airplane’s nose off the airway, or flight corridor, so that you don’t get in the way of other airplanes flying below.</p>
<p>The drill continues, still by heart, and it’d better go like clockwork. One crewmember calling out, the other doing what needs doing, confirming with the exact right responses:</p>
<ul>
<li>Emergency descent: announce</li>
<li>Engine start switches: continuous</li>
<li>Thrust levers: close</li>
<li>Speedbrake: flight detent</li>
<li>Descent: initiate</li>
<li>Target speed.</li>
</ul>
<p>Letting air traffic control know what’s going on comes in a very distant second place – if there is time and cognitive space to do so at all.</p>
<p>Descending at some 3,000 feet per minute, it takes about 10 minutes to get down to 10,000ft from cruise. This is not a plunge, it is a controlled descent. At 10,000 feet, everybody can breathe without masks.</p>
<p>So that’s the goal. Get to 10,000 feet. Take the masks off. Figure out where to go next, where to land. Indeed, talk to a controller.</p>
<h2>Hazards of flying low</h2>
<p>But in the Alps, some 500 mountains rise above 10,000 feet. You can’t just go anywhere. This is where minimum altitudes come in.</p>
<p>Minimum sector altitude (MSA), minimum en-route altitude (MEA), minimum obstacle clearance altitude (MOCA), minimum off-route altitudes (MORA), minimum crossing altitude (MCA) -— numbers scattered across paper charts (or today, iPads) in the cockpit, based on assumptions about the density and temperature of the atmosphere that are probably not valid that day.</p>
<p>Minimum altitude routes through mountain ranges, or Grand Massifs like the Alps, are hard to remember in detail from briefings. It’s a lot to keep stable in the head for an event that you have come to believe will “never” happen.</p>
<p>I look forward to the day that such routes pop up automatically on my moving map display in case of emergency. Today, they don’t. On a US$60 million jet, with a display whose hardware alone is over US$100,000, who’s counting?</p>
<p>Germanwings 4U9525 ended up at about 6,000 feet. When you’re that busy, and descending at that rate, it wouldn’t be hard to punch through the desired altitude for a bit.</p>
<p>Something else may have happened altogether, of course. We will hopefully know soon. If the history of aviation and accident investigations has shown anything, it is that we are willing —- keen even —- to learn from things that go wrong.</p>
<p>This might include finding better ways to know about the places in mountainous terrain where we can breathe, but also stay alive by not hitting anything.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sidney Dekker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The European Alps where Flight 4U 9525 crashed – killing 150 onboard – are known by pilots to be a hazardous place. Just one of many things a pilot must consider during any air emergency.Sidney Dekker, Professor, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/392782015-03-24T22:33:59Z2015-03-24T22:33:59ZA crash with no obvious cause: we must wait for answers from Germanwings black box<p>An investigation has begun into the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/24/german-a320-airbus-plane-crashes-french-alps">unexplained crash</a> of flight 4U9525, of budget airline Germanwings, which crashed into the Alps in southeastern France en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf with the loss of all 150 passengers and crew.</p>
<p>The aircraft descended from cruising height of 38,000ft to around 6,000ft in eight minutes before air traffic control lost contact just before 11am. According to witnesses who saw the aircraft descend, there was no sign of smoke or in-flight explosion, and weather at the time was good. The black box flight recorder <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/24/germanwings-plane-black-box-found-as-investigators-reach-crash-site">has been found</a>, and will reveal more in time.</p>
<p>Such incidents are actually quite rare in statistical terms. Flight 4U9525 appears to have involved a major malfunction of some kind as the aircraft was cruising, while the majority of accidents occur during take-off or landing. In fact most air accidents that involve fatalities also result in a large proportion of the passengers surviving because they occur nearer the ground, a fact that is not generally appreciated but sadly also not the case here.</p>
<h2>The aircraft: Airbus A320</h2>
<p>The aircraft, an Airbus A320, is a model that is in great demand from all parts of the world, and its reputation for safety and reliability is unequalled. It is one of a smaller, single-aisled family that comprise the A318, A319, A320 and A321, and has been in production since the late 1980s, and sales of the updated models show little sign of decline. </p>
<p>The A320 family has an accident rate of 0.14 fatal crashes per million departures, which is considered excellent. The total number of accident fatalities is below 1,500, which good considering its two decade service history and that more than 6,000 are in daily use.</p>
<p>There have been some memorable A320 accidents; in June 1988 an Air France airliner crash landed in high trees while performing a fly-by-wire landing at the <a href="http://www.airdisaster.com/investigations/af296/af296.shtml">Mulhouse air display</a> in France. Three of the 136 passengers on board died, and airliners are no longer permitted to perform at airshows with passengers on board.</p>
<p>In January 2009, in a remarkable piece of airmanship a US Airways A320 taking off from La Guardia in New York had a double engine failure from birdstrikes and subsequently <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7832439.stm">glided to a perfect ditching in the River Hudson</a>. Of the 155 people on board there was only a single serious injury.</p>
<p>In this case it’s been reported that the particular aircraft involved <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32030270">was 24 years old</a>, with the aircraft having previously been in service with German national airline Lufthansa before being transferred to Germanwings, a Lufthansa subsidiary. While this may surprise some, there’s little doubt that its full service records will show it was airworthy before its final departure, and that all necessary servicing had been completed in the years since manufacture. European airspace and flights are heavily audited by the <a href="https://www.easa.europa.eu/">European Aviation Safety Agency</a> and are considered very safe. Lufthansa operates 100 A320s, Germanwings 60.</p>
<p>The A320 family were among the first so-called “fly-by-wire” airliners, a great innovation when they first flew. In simple terms, the cables and pulleys connecting the moveable flight control surfaces (elevators, rudder and ailerons) to the pilots’ controls are replaced by electronic connections. These permit lighter pressure, swifter response, and better handling than previous manual systems, and do away with the image of “wrestling with the stick”. It’s now accepted that fly-by-wire technology, once the preserve of military aircraft, are perfectly safe for commercial use.</p>
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<h2>In-flight emergency</h2>
<p>With regard to airborne emergencies it goes without saying that there are procedures for all eventualities, and that these are practised by aircrews on a very regular basis. In all cases, teaching on the impact of human factors dictates that one pilot physically flies the aircraft while another attempts to isolate or solve the problem using checklist procedures, and will advise the cabin crew and the air traffic authorities that an emergency exists.</p>
<p>So it’s puzzling to investigators that <a href="http://stream.wsj.com/story/germanwings-plane-crash-in-southern-france/SS-2-762873/SS-2-763254/?mod=wsj_streaming_germanwings-plane-crash-in-southern-france">flight 4U9525 issued no “mayday”</a> distress call, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/24/what-happened-to-germanwings-flight-4u-9525">as confirmed by France’s aviation authority</a> despite earlier contradictory reports. This is unusual: if the situation was so catastrophic that it led to an immediate and rapid descent, for whatever reason, then possibly the aircraft or its communications systems had become disabled in some way. If it was cabin depressurisation that caused such a descent, each pilot has about 15 minutes of independent oxygen supply (the passengers have no more than 12 minutes’ worth).</p>
<p>It’s tragic that even at the low altitude of around 6,000ft that the aircraft was unable to avoid colliding into the lower slopes of the Alps, and that all on board perished. What remains certain is that the air accident investigators will piece together flight 4U9525’s final moments to assemble a true picture of what happened in the run up to the crash in an effort to prevent its re-occurrence. Sad though these events are, commercial air travel <a href="https://theconversation.com/air-travel-is-safe-and-getting-safer-whatever-else-you-might-have-read-36271">remains the safest form of travel</a> in the 21st century, and is likely to remain so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39278/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Byrne is a Chartered Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (FCILT).
</span></em></p>The crash of Germanwings flight 4U9525 in the Alps with the loss of 150 lives will have left grieving families wanting answers, but all we can do is wait.Kevin Byrne, Senior Lecturer in Aviation Management , Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.