tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/future-of-travel-6693/articlesFuture of travel – The Conversation2018-09-12T20:12:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027242018-09-12T20:12:47Z2018-09-12T20:12:47ZWhy driverless vehicles should not be given unchecked access to our cities<p>Autonomous, or driverless, vehicles can support and promote <a href="https://atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/2-key-characteristics-of-active-travel.aspx">active travel</a>, such as walking and cycling, when two basic conditions are met:</p>
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<li>their access to cities is restricted</li>
<li>their use is pooled.</li>
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<p>In the absence of these two conditions, autonomous vehicles could lead to a decline in active travel in cities and an increase in economic, social and environmental costs. Potential costs are rarely mentioned in the rhetoric about autonomous vehicles, much of which is highly optimistic. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/going-down-the-same-old-road-driverless-cars-arent-a-fix-for-our-transport-woes-50912">Going down the same old road: driverless cars aren't a fix for our transport woes</a>
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<p>However, universal or widespread access to the city by autonomous vehicles could result in detrimental outcomes. Not least of these impacts are on <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-health-at-the-heart-of-sustainability-policy-7914">active travel</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-of-the-land-how-urban-design-can-help-curb-obesity-6445">public health</a>. Depending on the conditions under which autonomous vehicles are allowed to operate in the city, we can expect a range of impacts with direct or indirect implications for walking and cycling.</p>
<h2>How could these vehicles have harmful impacts?</h2>
<p>Currently, access to or from public transport stops usually involves a short walk or cycle ride for many people. In the future, some people might choose to use autonomous vehicles to reach the bus, train or tram stop instead of walking or cycling. Or they might choose to move away from public transport and switch to autonomous vehicles completely. Clearly, both situations would reduce active travel.</p>
<p>At present, most people get in or out of their cars in car parks. In the future, autonomous vehicles can deliver passengers to their destinations without needing to park there. After drop-off, autonomous vehicles will take themselves to another part of the city where parking is cheap or free. Or they may go on to pick up someone else. </p>
<p>One possible consequence is that existing road infrastructure – carriageway or parking space – will be reallocated for passenger drop-off and pick-up. This would leave little or no extra space for pedestrians and cyclists.</p>
<p>Although autonomous vehicles could <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-autonomous-cars-really-safer-than-human-drivers-90202">increase road safety</a>, they might be segregated from other road users to reduce disruptions (deliberate or otherwise) and increase the predictability of autonomous vehicle flow. </p>
<p>Segregation of transport modes would mean pedestrians or cyclists are only allowed to cross autonomous vehicle lanes at specific points, either via signalled crossings or bridges and tunnels. This will reduce accessibility for pedestrians or cyclists. An urban structure will be created that is less “permeable” for active transport, with routes that are less direct than they could be. </p>
<p>Ultimately, by offering opportunities for recreation, work or even sleep during car journeys (instead of driving), autonomous vehicles might <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">increase the travel time and distance</a> that people consider acceptable. The frequency of car trips might increase too. And, as vehicles spend longer on the road, requirements for road infrastructure capacity might also increase. </p>
<p>In the longer term, if people are willing to travel further, homes and jobs might be relocated. This would fuel urban sprawl and reduce the viability of public transport services. Lower public transport use will be detrimental for active travel and public health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Impacts of different levels of vehicle access and ownership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diagram by Dominic Stead</span></span>
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<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-of-the-land-how-urban-design-can-help-curb-obesity-6445">Fat of the land: how urban design can help curb obesity</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-health-at-the-heart-of-sustainability-policy-7914">Putting health at the heart of sustainability policy</a></em></p>
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<h2>Limit access for urban well-being</h2>
<p>Overcoming the negative consequences of autonomous vehicles requires first and foremost strong restrictions on their access within the city. This should be much more limited than it is for conventional cars. Access should be restricted to specific nodes and axes in the city. </p>
<p>Exceptions would apply to certain users and situations. Examples include <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-could-change-lives-for-disabled-people-if-we-let-them-30286">passengers with disabilities</a>, emergency services, construction and maintenance, and deliveries of heavy goods. </p>
<p>The underlying logic should be to channel autonomous vehicle traffic along a limited number of corridors in the city, and to locate pick-up and drop-off points at key nodes along these corridors. These nodes should be well served by high-frequency public transport services. They should also be well connected to a dense network of attractive pedestrian and cycle infrastructure. </p>
<p>The aim is to promote fast and efficient node-to-node journeys, as in the image below, rather than door-to-door journeys. Nodes should be distributed around the city according to a hierarchy. </p>
<p>Locating minor nodes around one kilometre apart would mean the maximum distance to reach the nearest node is 500 metres. This is generally considered to be an acceptable walking distance in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit-oriented_development">transit oriented development</a>. </p>
<p>Major nodes can be located several kilometres apart. These serve as multi-modal transit centres that provide connections to train and/or bus services. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Schematic representation showing restricted access of vehicles to designated urban corridors and nodes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Restricting traffic access to certain streets in the city will provide space that can be used almost exclusively for active transport. </p>
<p>A future where autonomous vehicle ownership is pooled will have more economic, social and environmental benefits for cities. Pooling vehicles will clearly reduce the number of vehicles needed to serve the city. This in turn will mean less infrastructure is needed to accommodate them. </p>
<p>However, even if autonomous vehicles are individually owned, controlling access to selected nodes and axes in the city can still have benefits for the city and its citizens. </p>
<p>Australian cities need to be prepared for widespread autonomous vehicle use before it happens. This includes being prepared for more active transport. At the moment <a href="https://home.kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2018/01/2018-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.html">Australia is not as ready</a> as many countries in Europe and North America. Readiness requires more research, planning and preparation soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic Stead advises on a project funded by the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Kimpton receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iderlina Mateo-Babiano receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Corcoran receives funding from the Australian Research Council.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p>To maximise the benefits and limit the costs, the use of autonomous vehicles should be pooled and their access to the city restricted.Dominic Stead, Delft University of TechnologyAnthony Kimpton, Casual Lecturer in Urban Sociology and Geography, The University of QueenslandDerlie Mateo-Babiano, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandJonathan Corcoran, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandNeil G Sipe, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681992016-11-23T10:58:34Z2016-11-23T10:58:34ZHow much should air traffic controllers trust new flight management systems?<p>With airfares at their lowest point in seven years and airlines adding capacity, this year’s Thanksgiving air travel is slated to be <a href="http://airlines.org/news/a4a-projects-thanksgiving-air-travel-to-rise-2-5-percent-to-27-3-million-passengers-in-2016/">2.5 percent busier</a> than last year. Between Nov. 18 and 29, 27.3 million Americans are expected to take to the skies. </p>
<p>The system we use to coordinate all those flights carrying all those Thanksgiving travelers through the air is decades old, and mostly depends on <a href="http://www.onetonline.org/link/details/53-2021.00">highly trained air traffic controllers</a>, who keep track of where all the planes are, where they’re heading, how fast they’re going and at what altitude. </p>
<p>As the national airspace gets more crowded, and as technology improves, the Federal Aviation Administration has begun <a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/">upgrading the air traffic control systems</a>. The new system is called <a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/">NextGen</a>, and some of its capabilities are already being rolled out across the country. It is intended to make air traffic faster, more efficient, more cost-effective and even, through fuel savings, less damaging to the environment. It will also help air traffic controllers and pilots alike handle potential hazards, whether they involve weather, other aircraft or equipment problems.</p>
<p>But we the traveling public will be able to realize all these benefits only if the air traffic controllers of the future make the most of the technology. As a human factors researcher, seeking to understand how people interact within complex systems, I have found that there are challenges for controllers <a href="http://gradworks.umi.com/15/97/1597782.html">learning to properly trust</a> the computer systems keeping America in the air.</p>
<h2>Use as directed</h2>
<p>The NextGen system is designed for humans and computers to work in tandem. For example, one element involves air traffic controllers and pilots <a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/snapshots/priorities/?area=dcom">exchanging digital text messages</a> between the <a href="https://www.volpe.dot.gov/safety-management-and-human-factors/aviation-human-factors/changing-way-pilots-and-controllers">tower and airplane computer systems</a>, as opposed to talking over the radio. This arrangement has several benefits, including eliminating the possibility someone might mishear a garbled radio transmission.</p>
<p>Human controllers will still give routing instructions to human pilots, but computers monitoring the airspace can keep an eye on where planes are, and automatically compare that to where they are supposed to be, as well as how close they get to each other. The <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/eram/">automated conflict detection tools</a> can alert controllers to possible trouble and offer safer alternatives.</p>
<p>In addition, air crews will be able to <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=19375">follow routing instructions</a> more quickly, accepting the digital command from the ground directly into the plane’s navigation system. This, too, requires human trust in automated systems. That is not as simple as it might sound.</p>
<h2>Trust in automation</h2>
<p>When the people who operate automated tools aren’t properly informed about their equipment – including what exactly it can and cannot do – problems arise. When humans expect computerized systems to be more reliable than they are, tragedy can result. For example, the owner killed in the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/business/tesla-autopilot-fatal-crash-investigation.html">fatal Tesla crash while in autopilot mode</a> may have become overreliant on the technology or used it in a way beyond how it was intended. Making sure human expectations match technical abilities is called “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1518/hfes.46.1.50_30392">calibration</a>.”</p>
<p>When the people and the machinery are properly calibrated to each other, trust can develop. That’s what happened over the course of a 16-week course training air traffic controller students on a <a href="https://hsi.arc.nasa.gov/groups/aol/technologies/macs.php">desktop air traffic control simulator</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers typically <a href="https://www.faa.gov/training_testing/training/fits/Research/media/SA_and_Trust.pdf">measure trust in automated systems</a> by asking questions about the operator’s evaluations of the system’s integrity, the operator’s confidence in using the system and how dependable the operator thinks the system is. There are several types of questionnaires that ask these sorts of questions; one of them, a trust scale <a href="https://www.faa.gov/training_testing/training/fits/Research/media/SA_and_Trust.pdf">aimed at the air traffic management system as a whole</a>, was particularly sensitive to discerning changing trust in the student group I studied.</p>
<p>I asked the air traffic controller students about their trust in the automated tools such as those provided by NextGen on the first day, at the midterm exam in week nine of their course, and at the final exam at the end of the training. Overall, the students’ trust in the system increased, though some trusted it more than others. </p>
<h2>Too much trust, or too little?</h2>
<p>There is such a thing as trusting technology too much. In this study, some students, who trusted the system more, were actually less aware than their less trusting classmates of what was going on in the airspace during simulated scenarios at the final exam with lots of air traffic. One possible explanation could be that those with more trust in the system became complacent and did not bother expending the effort to keep their own independent view (or “maintain the picture,” as air traffic controllers say).</p>
<p>These more trusting students might have been more vulnerable to errors if the automation required them to manually intervene. <a href="http://gradworks.umi.com/15/97/1597782.html">Correlation analyses</a> suggested that students with more trust were less likely to engage in what might be called “nontrusting” behaviors, like overriding the automation. For example, they were less likely to step in and move aircraft that the automated conflict detection tools determined were far enough apart, even if they personally thought the planes were too close together. That showed they were relying on the automation appropriately.</p>
<p>These trust disparities and their effects became clear only at the final exam. This suggests that as they became familiar with the technology, students’ trust in the systems and their actions when using it changed. </p>
<p>Previous research has shown that providing <a href="http://gradworks.umi.com/15/24/1524202.html">specific training in trusting the automation</a> may reduce students’ likelihood of engaging in nontrusting behaviors. Training should aim to make trainees more aware of their potential to overly trust the system, to ensure they remain aware of critical information. Only when the users properly trust the system – neither too much nor too little – will the public benefits of NextGen truly be available to us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68199/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This study was supported by NASA cooperative agreement NNX09AU66A, Group 5 University Research Center: Center for Human Factors in Advanced Aeronautics Technologies (Brenda Collins, Technical Monitor).</span></em></p>The FAA’s NextGen system should bring safety and efficiency to American air travel, but its users need to understand it clearly.Tannaz Mirchi, Human Factors Engineer, Lecturer in Psychology, California State University, Long BeachLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/612282016-06-20T09:02:12Z2016-06-20T09:02:12ZRolls-Royce’s luxury vision of the future tells us more about ourselves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127127/original/image-20160617-11101-1x7xhsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rolls-Royce Motor Company</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rolls Royce Motor Cars has unveiled a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/16/rolls-royce-unveils-first-driverless-car-vision-next-100">concept car</a> that showcases what the firm thinks luxury vehicles might look like in 100 years’ time. The “<a href="https://www.press.rolls-roycemotorcars.com/rolls-royce-motor-cars-pressclub/article/detail/T0261167EN/rolls-royce-vision-next-100-%E2%80%93-a-grand-vision-of-the-future-of-luxury-mobility">Vision Next 100</a>” is a 5.9 metre-long zero-emission, self-driving car complete with an artificial intelligence virtual assistant and a silk sofa – but no steering wheel.</p>
<p>Concept cars are one-off designs that have two purposes: to show the world what a brand has to say about the future, and to show the brand what the world has to say about its ideas. Somewhere between these two poles, the company will harvest the impulses for the development of new cars.</p>
<p>While concept cars rarely get made into the real thing, they are still a foreshadowing of things to come. Car manufacturers don’t make decisions lightly and they know that putting something out into the public domain under their good names may be perceived as a promise. But they often tell us more about the present than they do about the future.</p>
<p>With the Vision Next 100, Rolls-Royce has undertaken the eyebrow-raising feat of forecasting transport solutions a full century ahead. This is most unusual, as these vehicles usually only try to test the waters for up to a decade ahead. But, like all concept cars, this vehicle is also merely a projection from today’s perspective. While it might be possible to make educated guesses about <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-could-be-the-answer-to-congested-roads-33438">future technological advances</a>, it is impossible to accurately predict things like emerging styling preferences, tastes, or social changes that could affect the actual outcome.</p>
<p>Concept vehicles can teach us something about our present time – our dreams, fears and our vision of what the solutions will be. Unfortunately, we won’t know exactly what these things are until years later when we look back at them. Cars predicting the future tend to become monuments to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hollywood-saved-a-futuristic-car-from-obscurity-49641">aberrations in taste</a> of their time. I predict we will one day be smiling at the Vision Next 100 as much as we do now at the concept cars from the 1960s, few of which actually ever came close to hitting the mark regarding predicting the future.</p>
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<p>We smile because we recognise the good old times in those vehicles, which become time capsules of the era that created them. And the same will most likely happen to this vehicle. It will become a museum of our time’s aspirations, and one day, perhaps a hundred years from now, people will say: “Wow, look at that – this is so 2010s!”</p>
<p>Few concept cars have successfully predicted the future. Some were ridiculously far off, such as the 1962 <a href="http://www.gizmag.com/ford-seattle-ite-one-of-historys-most-significant-concept-cars/2798/">Ford “Seattleite”</a>. Its downfall was the lack of justification for the solutions it presented, such as four front wheels, giant rocket-engine style protruding taillights, and a glass cupola roof. Others were interestingly close to what later did become relevant concepts, such as the <a href="http://www.carstyling.ru/en/car/1970_ghia_city_car/">1970 Ghia City Car</a>, which is not too far removed from what we now know as the <a href="http://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/smart/fortwo">Smart Fortwo</a>.</p>
<h2>Mini prediction</h2>
<p>What may be the most successful predictor in automotive history comes from the opposite end of the spectrum from Rolls Royce: the original 1959 Mini. <a href="http://www.aronline.co.uk/blogs/cars/mini-classic/the-cars-mini-development-history-part-1/">Commissioned as</a> a radical British alternative to the German bubble car, it carried particular importance because it managed to solve a large number of poignant problems society and manufacturers actually had at the time.</p>
<p>In contrast to its contemporaries, the Mini made astonishingly good use of the available interior space, seating four passengers in a way normally only found in much larger cars. It was built low to the ground, with a low centre of gravity, and its four wheels were situated as close to the chassis’s corners as possible. This design made it more nimble than even the most highly regarded sports cars and even enabled the small vehicle to <a href="http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/mini/89423/paddy-hopkirk-and-the-mini-that-won-the-monte-carlo-rally">win rallies</a>.</p>
<p>Its overall body construction and package was also revolutionary in its efficiency, as it no longer used a chassis frame and was able to use 80% of its floor space for passengers and luggage because of the position of its engine. As a consequence, more and more manufacturers more or less by default started resorting to the solutions outlined by its designer Sir Alec Issigonis. Sixty years on, today’s average vehicle still mirrors <a href="https://theconversation.com/sublime-design-the-mini-27642">his vision</a>. Front-wheel drive, front mounted engine, independent suspension and efficient interior space use can be found in pretty much all compact and even most mid-sized cars on the market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127116/original/image-20160617-11101-14dvwco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Surprisingly accurate vision of the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1959_Morris_Mini-Minor_Heritage_Motor_Centre,_Gaydon.jpg">Mark Brown/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>In contrast, the Rolls Royce Vision Next 100 is blissfully lacking reason. Not that Rolls Royce cars have ever been particularly famous for being rational anyway, but the extent to which its latest concept focuses on glamour is exceptional even for the famous British marque. It comes with an artificial servant and provides no driver controls of any sort. It is the ultimate, elitist vision that we can conjure up from today’s perspective.</p>
<p>And yet this grandiose idea is probably in line with developments in the fields of robotics and artificial intelligence. It may even turn out to be as visionary as Issigonis’s Mini was. Who says artificial servants are really all that far off? Just because 1950s science fiction literature promised them and our society has so far failed to deliver them, <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-built-a-robot-butler-but-dont-throw-out-the-ironing-board-just-yet-46480">robotic servants</a> may well become commonplace within another hundred years.</p>
<p>A projection of one century into the next is likely to be more poetry than proposal, and this concept in particular, as it banks on technological developments that are yet to take place. But a company like Rolls-Royce doesn’t need to be accurate every time. It is the brand whose motors used to eschew horsepower ratings in their brochures, supplanting them instead with assurances of “sufficient power”. It is nice to see this aloof spirit return.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61228/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Ebbert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Vision Next 100 concept car promises 22nd century luxury but is more likely to become an amusing curiosity – just like its predecessors.Chris Ebbert, Senior Lecturer in Product Design, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170202013-08-13T13:56:19Z2013-08-13T13:56:19ZHyperloop and the future of ground transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29172/original/9h6x3ynt-1376397925.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It won't look that sexy, but the concept is worth the attention.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SpaceX</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elon Musk, founder of <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/spacex">SpaceX</a> and co-founder of PayPal, <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/hyperloop">has announced</a> his vision for a new high-speed ground transportation system called “Hyperloop”. The system would connect Los Angeles to San Francisco and, compared to the high-speed train link under development, it could provide a more efficient, reliable, low-cost and green(er) alternative.</p>
<p>Beyond the technological aspects and the project’s feasibility, this announcement is crucial to the current and future developments of high-speed land transport systems meant for mass use. While the technologies needed to develop the Hyperloop are not new, it is the first time that a proposed system looks at combining them in a plausible way.</p>
<p>In what is becoming Musk’s style, the Hyperloop tries to solve a known issue with simplicity and style. Designed around customer needs, it claims to provide an alternative choice that is relatively cheap (US$6 billion to build and operate vs US$70 billion for high-speed rail), fast (bringing the commuting time to 30 minutes between the two cities), environmentally friendly (with limited land use, noise and emissions footprint) and, most importantly, safe. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29174/original/wqpzb3wk-1376398065.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concept design for seats. Too cramped?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SpaceX</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Hyperloop goes one better than previous systems proposed by others (such as the RAND corporation and ET3), by not relying on a tube held in a state of vacuum (pretty much impossible over 350 miles) but instead using a low pressure system that is easier to construct and maintain. </p>
<p>Also, by classing Hyperloop as an “open design concept” and <a href="http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf">releasing a preliminary design</a>, Musk has ensured that the people who would be most affected by such a system are able to gauge the advantages for themselves. The scientific community can collaborate by scrutinising the technical aspects and offering suggestions and feedback.</p>
<h2>Hyperloop vs high-speed rail</h2>
<p>High-speed rail links can be an efficient and fast way to travel, and introduction of new lines <a href="http://abta.com/news-and-views/policy-zone/opinion-high-speed-rail-and-heathrow">can affect</a> the growth of the aviation industry on certain sectors or routes. But the overall cost of development, the system’s environmental impact and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sophisticated-system-intended-to-keep-high-speed-rail-safe-16447">safety concerns</a> about top-speed limits often make it difficult to justify new developments.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29173/original/vmtgyzbm-1376398010.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concept sketch. You can see the air intake on the nose of the capsule.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SpaceX</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All open air systems face a simple problem: air resistance or drag. If we consider MagLev, which is the fastest unconventional rail system (one that uses electromagnetic forces of attraction or repulsion to levitate and propel an object, like the Transrapid-09 or the Shanghai line), even it faces a lot of drag at high speeds. The drag forces quadruple as the velocity of the object doubles, to overcome that drag force it needs eight times the power to increase its speed. Thus drag limits the top speed for ground-based open air systems.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29175/original/46bz97xw-1376398108.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar panels will line the tube providing power to the induction motors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SpaceX</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hyperloop has been designed to overcome this. By operating in a low-pressure environment that allows for lower air density the system limits the amount of drag it would face to begin with. This coupled with the compressor leading face allows the Hyperloop to channel the air in front of the capsule and funnel it to the back to generate extra thrust. </p>
<p>Riding on an air cushion, with minimal drag, the Hyperloop would in theory also allow for variable top-speeds depending on the capsule configuration. Future interstate developments could see it compete with road and rail in the transport market.</p>
<h2>Is it worth it?</h2>
<p>For its price, the Hyperloop is definitely worth exploring. Its simplicity in design and Elon Musk’s reputation of finding innovative and (relatively) inexpensive solutions to big problems are certainly appealing. The idea offers an alternative to current day systems that are limited either by design or fundamental physics. It also illustrates how one can use current off-the-shelf technology to design a new system that can be safe, reliable, commercially affordable and a cheaper alternative for the end user.</p>
<p>Drawing on the expertise of his teams at SpaceX and Tesla Motors, Musk has taken on another grand challenge. Having provided an alternative to space, road and now high-speed rail transport, who knows, in years to come we might even see Musk’s vision for supersonic air travel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tan Sharma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX and co-founder of PayPal, has announced his vision for a new high-speed ground transportation system called “Hyperloop”. The system would connect Los Angeles to San Francisco…Tan Sharma, Associate of Informatics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.