tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/green-party-5002/articles Green Party – The Conversation2024-03-07T13:31:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249302024-03-07T13:31:57Z2024-03-07T13:31:57ZI watched Hungary’s democracy dissolve into authoritarianism as a member of parliament − and I see troubling parallels in Trumpism and its appeal to workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580025/original/file-20240305-20-3hi9y2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C10%2C3431%2C2478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump shakes hands with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during a meeting in the Oval Office on May 13, 2019, in Washington, D.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-shakes-hands-with-hungarian-prime-news-photo/1148899659?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarian-pm-orban-meet-trump-march-8-florida-2024-03-04/">Hungarian leader</a> <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/when-people-elect-strongman-rule">and strongman Viktor Orbán</a>, who presided over the radical decline of democracy in his country, is scheduled to meet with former President Donald Trump, now the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on March 8, 2024.</p>
<p>Orbán has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67832416">Hungary’s prime minister</a> since 2010. Under his leadership, the country became the first nondemocracy in the European Union – an “<a href="https://budapestbeacon.com/full-text-of-viktor-orbans-speech-at-baile-tusnad-tusnadfurdo-of-26-july-2014/">illiberal state</a>,” as Orbán proudly declared. Trump expressed his admiration for Orbán and his authoritarian moves during their meeting at the White House in 2019.</p>
<p>“You’re respected all over Europe. Probably, like me, a little bit controversial, but that’s OK,” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/13/trump-latest-viktor-orban-hungary-prime-minister-white-house">Trump said</a>. “You’ve done a good job and you’ve kept your country safe.”</p>
<p>I’ve followed their mutual romance with illiberalism for a long time. Although I am now in the U.S. <a href="https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/scheiring-gabor">as an academic</a>, I was <a href="https://www.gaborscheiring.com/">elected to the Hungarian Parliament</a> in 2010 when Orbán’s rule started.</p>
<p>As the U.S. braces for a potential second Trump presidency, Americans may rightly wonder: Would Trump’s America mirror Orbán’s Hungary in its slide toward authoritarianism?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing before a crowd holding stop signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Member of Parliament Gábor Scheiring, right, with two colleagues, all wearing signs that say ‘Enough,’ chained themselves to the Parliament building in a December 2011 protest against the increasing autocracy of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo Akos Stiller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Authoritarianism from within</h2>
<p>I can still feel the pleasant spring breeze on my skin as I walked up the National Assembly’s stairs in my freshly bought suit. As newly elected members of Parliament, my Green Party colleagues and I stepped into our roles with high hopes and detailed plans to fix Hungary’s ailing economy and move toward sustainability.</p>
<p>I also remember the cold winter day a year and half later when we <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL6E7NN14R/">chained ourselves to the parliament building</a>. It was a demonstration against the hollowing of parliamentary work and democratic backsliding under Orbán’s rule.</p>
<p>If the parliament is the political home of democracy, Hungary’s was vacant by 2012.</p>
<p>Orbán and his party in power hijacked democratic institutions. The nationwide right-wing media network is a crucial component of this authoritarian power. As the Voice of America <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hungarian-prime-minister-shows-why-american-right-embraces-him/6687500.html">reported in 2022</a>, Orbán’s allies “have created a pervasive conservative media ecosystem that dominates the airwaves and generally echoes the positions of the Orbán government.” </p>
<p>His government gerrymandered local districts and allowed voters to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/europe/hungary-viktor-orban-election.html">register outside their home districts</a>, both aimed at favoring Orbán and his party. The government also staffed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1X8244/">the public prosecutor’s office with loyalists</a>, ensuring that any misconduct by those in power stays hidden. </p>
<p>Republicans in the U.S. have followed a similar trajectory with their support of Trump as his rhetoric <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-democracy-election-2024-f2f824f056ae9f81f4e688fe590f41b4">grows more authoritarian</a>. Trump says if he wins the election, he wants to be <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritarian-presidential-election-f27e7e9d7c13fabbe3ae7dd7f1235c72">“a dictator” for one day</a>. A recent poll shows that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4453457-74-percent-of-republicans-say-its-fine-for-trump-to-be-dictator-for-a-day/">74% of Republicans surveyed</a> said it would be a good idea for Trump to “be a dictator only on the first day of his second term.”</p>
<p>Orbán has spent years <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/world/europe/hungary-viktor-orban-judges.html">undermining the independence of Hungary’s judiciary</a>, ensuring its rulings are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/world/europe/hungary-courts.html">friendly to his government and allies</a>. While still an independent institution, the U.S. Supreme Court – with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-14th-amendment-immunity-supreme-court-d3f001f66c5c3e85302b8772753ed769">three Trump-nominated justices</a> – has become a pillar of Trumpism, handing down rulings overturning the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">constitutional right to abortion</a> and <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf">limiting civil rights</a>.</p>
<p>Fox, OANN, and other right-wing media ensure that large parts of America see <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/05/1229295278/the-fracturing-and-expansion-of-conservative-media-ahead-of-the-presidential-ele">the world through a Trumpian lens</a>.</p>
<p>Authoritarian populists tilt the democratic playing field to favor themselves and their personal and political interests. Subverting democracy from the inside without violent repression allows leaders like Orbán and Trump to pretend they are democratic. This authoritarianism from within creates chokepoints, where the opposition isn’t crushed, but it has a hard time breathing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A demonstrator holding a placard that in Hungarian says 'Down with the Fascist government.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A placard reads ‘Down with the Fascist government’ in front of the Parliament building in Budapest on June 14, 2021, during a demonstration against the Hungarian government’s draft bill seeking to ban the ‘promotion’ of homosexuality and sex changes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participant-holds-a-placard-reading-down-with-the-fascist-news-photo/1233454607?adppopup=true">Gergely Besenyei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>No democracy with division</h2>
<p>How can strongmen get away with these antidemocratic politics? If there is one lesson from Hungary, it is this: Democracy is not sustainable in a divided society where many are left behind economically.</p>
<p>The real power of authoritarian populists like Trump and Orban lies not in the institutions they hijack but in the novel electoral support coalition they create.</p>
<p>They bring together two types of supporters. Some hardcore, authoritarian-right voters are motivated by bigotry and hatred rooted in their fear of globalization’s cultural threats. However, the most successful right-wing populist forces <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/19110-20220517.pdf">integrate an outer layer of primarily working-class voters</a> hurt by globalization’s economic threats.</p>
<p>Throughout the 20th century, Democrats in the U.S. and left-of-center parties in Europe provided a political home for those fearing economic insecurity. This fostered a political system that engendered equality and a healthy social fabric, giving people reason to care for liberal democratic institutions. </p>
<p>However, when the economy fails to deliver, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/04/07/hungary-dissatisfied-with-democracy-but-not-its-ideals/">disillusionment with capitalism</a> morphs into an apathy toward liberal democracy.</p>
<p>If the liberal center appears uncaring, authoritarian populists can mobilize voters against both the cultural and economic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123424000024">threats posed by globalization</a>.</p>
<p>In Hungary, the first signs of authoritarianism appeared in economically left-behind rural areas and provincial small and medium towns well before Orbán’s 2010 victory. While these provincial towns suffered from increasing mortality, deindustrialization and income loss, the parties of the liberal center continued to sing hymns about the benefits of globalization, detached from the everyday experience of economic insecurity. </p>
<p>As I showed in my book, neglecting this suffering was the democratic center’s <a href="https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/hybrid-authoritarianism/">politically lethal failure</a>.</p>
<p>By today, Hungary’s liberal and left-of-center parties have retreated to the biggest cities, leaving their former provincial political strongholds up for grabs for the radical right. The same is taking place in the U.S., with the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/04/new-republican-party-working-class-coalition-00122822">Republicans becoming a party of the working class</a> and nonmetropolitan America.</p>
<p>The success of authoritarian populism in Hungary might seem disheartening. However, there is a silver lining: Those committed to democracy in the U.S. still have time to learn from Hungary’s mistakes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I was a Member of the Hungarian Parliament for the Greens from 2010 to 2014.</span></em></p>One of Donald Trump’s favorite politicians is the Hungarian authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán. Would a country led again by Trump embrace similar antidemocratic politics?Gábor Scheiring, Fellow, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073382023-06-08T14:15:02Z2023-06-08T14:15:02ZCaroline Lucas and the heavy burden of being a party’s only member of parliament<p>Green MP Caroline Lucas’s <a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1666675402775883778/photo/1">announcement</a> that she will be leaving parliament at the next general election will have come as a surprise to many. Elected in 2010 as the party’s first ever MP, overturning a pretty thumping Labour majority, she has become something of a force to be reckoned with in Westminster.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1666675402775883778"}"></div></p>
<p>From the minute she stepped foot in the House of Commons, Lucas was aware that her position as the sole member of a political party made parliamentary life more difficult to navigate. Party is everything in the House of Commons. It determines how often you get to speak and, most importantly, how much information you get about what will be happening and when. The government controls most of the parliamentary timetable, deciding what business is to be debated each day and ultimately, when votes will happen. Lucas even <a href="https://www.carolinelucas.com/latest/honourable-friends-parliament-and-the-fight-for-change">wrote a book</a> on her experiences as the Green’s only MP, highlighting the absence of any “honourable friends” in Westminster to guide her.</p>
<p>It would be wrong to say that these pressures have made her an unsuccessful MP. In fact, quite the opposite. Lucas is probably the best example of how a sole MP should operate in the Commons. She punches well above her weight as Green MP, asking <a href="https://members.parliament.uk/member/3930/writtenquestions">nearly 4,000 written questions</a> to government ministers since 2010, with an impressive number of <a href="https://members.parliament.uk/member/3930/contributions">spoken contributions</a> to boot, including a significant number of questions to the prime minister.</p>
<p>In recent years, House of Commons speakers have been much more explicit in recognising the position of smaller party MPs in the House of Commons chamber, ensuring that Lucas (along with Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and others) are all called to speak in important debates. This has helped to ensure a guaranteed platform for her and her party during the big debates on Brexit and its fallout, as well as the COVID pandemic.</p>
<p>In her resignation letter, Lucas talked about the “particular responsibilities” of being the Greens’ only MP and the impact this has had on her ability to do the job she wants to do as an MP. </p>
<p>Every MP wears two hats – as constituency MP and as parliamentarian. And there is a tension in the parliamentary role of a sole party MP that is absent for the average Labour or Conservative Party backbencher. For they essentially wear a third hat – they are the only voice of their entire political party in the House of Commons. </p>
<p>There is another added weight in the knowledge that they are not just a constituency MP but the only available representative in parliament for everyone who voted for their party. Lucas recognised this in her <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/archive/articles-and-speeches/27-05-2010-caroline-lucas-maiden-parliamentary-speech.html">first speech in the House of Commons</a>. She is not just the voice of her constituents in Brighton Pavilion, she is the voice of the 835,000 people who voted Green in the 2019 general election.</p>
<p>In this way, sole party MPs occupy a unique space. They must serve as both backbench and frontbench members of their party, essentially shadowing every single government department. </p>
<p>In practice this means a great deal more pressure on their time. If a minister attends the House of Commons for questions or to give a statement, if there is a debate on an important piece of legislation or a topic of much importance, they will need to be present in order to be their party’s voice. </p>
<p>Other small parties have the same dilemma. Plaid Cymru’s Ben Lake, for instance, is shadowing <a href="https://members.parliament.uk/member/4630/contact">no fewer than seven government departments</a> at the moment. It’s hard work and it requires a good support team in Parliament. For this, parties are dependent on <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/short-money/">Short money</a> – public funding for the opposition that depends on party performance in elections. Where this has been insufficient, Lucas has been <a href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/help-fund-caroline-lucas-in-parliament">assiduous in crowdfunding</a> in order to maintain a support team and “skewer ministers” with parliamentary questions.</p>
<h2>Stretched too thin</h2>
<p>The need to be the entire parliamentary face of the party makes it difficult to specialise and to carve out the time needed to focus on policy priorities. It is this that seems to have been the rub for Lucas. Those looking on might find this hard to believe as her work on climate and environmental issues is very prominent. She’s been a member of the Environmental Audit Committee for almost her entire time in the House of Commons and is chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Climate Change. This is on top of her regular interventions. But she clearly wants to do more.</p>
<p>More often than not, opposition parties are on the back foot, responding to the parliamentary agenda set by the government rather than being able to shape it. It can be frustrating to be in this position. </p>
<p>Lucas has always been keen to get out of the Westminster bubble and be on the frontline of the campaigns she is passionate about. Her <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/19/caroline-lucas-arrest-balcombe-anti-fracking">arrest</a> while joining anti-fracking campaigners at the Balcombe oil drilling site in 2013 is often raised as an example. </p>
<p>We could also point to a time shortly after her election back in 2010 when she interrupted a parliamentary debate on the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06111/">fixed-term parliaments bill</a> to voice her disgust at what she had seen while joining tuition fee protesters down the road from parliament. Having seen first-hand the unnecessary kettling of students and schoolchildren she demanded that the home secretary <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2010-11-24/debates/10112451000002/details#contribution-10112468000661">come to the House of Commons</a> to make a statement.</p>
<p>Any green MP elected in place of Lucas will also need to navigate these tensions. If, however, we see a few more Green MPs elected then the job could become slightly easier. And with <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2023/05/05/greens-make-record-gains-in-historic-local-election-results/#:%7E:text=5%2520May%25202023&text=The%2520Greens%2520are%2520celebrating%2520a,in%2520the%2520UK%2520%252D%2520and%2520Europe.">record results</a> in this year’s local elections, that looks like a greater possibility than it has been before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207338/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Thompson received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council </span></em></p>As the only Green parliamentarian, Lucas has served as a constituency MP but also as a representative of the hundreds of thousands of other people who vote for her party.Louise Thompson, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1832142022-05-18T20:59:01Z2022-05-18T20:59:01ZLGBTIQ+ and unsure how to vote? Here are what the major parties are promising on health<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463838/original/file-20220518-19-sydn3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C1000%2C661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-queer-couple-laughing-together-indoors-2037503012">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>About one in three LGBTIQ+ voters are not sure who to vote for, or are considering changing who they vote for, this federal election, according to <a href="https://equalityaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Rainbow-votes-report.pdf">a survey</a> by Equality Australia.</p>
<p>So, if you are lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans, intersex, queer or otherwise part of the rainbow community, you might be wondering what the major parties have to offer you. </p>
<p>Health care and LGBTIQ+ issues are among the top concerns for the <a href="https://equalityaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Rainbow-votes-report.pdf">roughly 850,000</a> LGBTIQ+ Australians eligible to vote this election. So let’s look at what each party has promised on health.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/marriage-equality-was-momentous-but-there-is-still-much-to-do-to-progress-lgbti-rights-in-australia-110786">Marriage equality was momentous, but there is still much to do to progress LGBTI+ rights in Australia</a>
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<h2>Labor</h2>
<p>Improving health and <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/aged-care">aged care</a> are central Labor platforms this election. Labor <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/medicare-and-your-health">plans to</a> make it easier to see a doctor, set up <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-urgent-care-centres-are-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-not-a-panacea-181237">urgent care clinics</a>, and cut costs of medications. </p>
<p><a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/lgbtihealth/pages/982/attachments/original/1652661610/LGBTIQ__Health_Australia_-_ALP_Response.pdf?1652661610">Labor</a> <a href="https://www.lgbtiqhealth.org.au/electionsurvey">has promised</a> to consult more with LGBTIQ+ people about their health needs. It will support the national LGBTIQ+ mental health and support hotline, <a href="https://qlife.org.au/">QLife</a>, with a one-off grant to help the service reach more people. Labor also wants to set up a new taskforce to end Australia’s HIV epidemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Distressed person curled up on sofa looking at smartphone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463829/original/file-20220518-20-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Labor has promised to expand an LGBTIQ+ support hotline, and to consult on health-care needs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-beautiful-young-woman-depressed-facial-1452798530">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>LGBTIQ+ people would benefit from a stronger health system, but there is not much detail on how Labor’s health reforms would make health care more inclusive for LGBTIQ+ Australians. </p>
<p>Also missing from Labor’s health commitments is specific support for transgender people. Its <a href="https://alp.org.au/media/2594/2021-alp-national-platform-final-endorsed-platform.pdf">2021 national platform</a> said it wanted to ban gay conversion practices and unnecessary medical treatment of <a href="https://ihra.org.au/18106/what-is-intersex/">intersex people</a>, but these have not been election promises this year.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-words-can-harm-young-trans-people-heres-what-we-can-do-to-help-176788">Yes, words can harm young trans people. Here's what we can do to help</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The Greens</h2>
<p>The Greens have also focused on affordable health care this election. They want to <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/health">expand Medicare</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-greens-want-medicare-to-cover-a-trip-to-the-dentist-its-a-grand-vision-but-short-on-details-181239">include dental</a> and mental health care by reinvesting private health insurance rebates into the public system. </p>
<p>Out of all the major parties, The Greens have made the most LGBTIQ+ specific commitments this election. They <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/lgbtihealth/pages/982/attachments/original/1652661609/LGBTIQ__Health_Australia_-_Greens_Response.pdf?1652661609">propose</a> A$285 million “to ensure all LGBTIQ+ people have access to holistic and comprehensive health services regardless of whether they live in a capital city or a rural town”. There will be funding for LGBTIQ+ community-run organisations, health services and research.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man with hand on other man's shoulder sitting in front of female health worker" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463832/original/file-20220518-18-v3cvl3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Greens have promised access to holistic and comprehensive health services for LGBTIQ+ people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gloomy-cheerless-man-being-involved-thoughts-597648815">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Greens will dedicate funding to cover out-of-pocket costs for trans people accessing gender affirming health care. </p>
<p>They also plan to commit $132 million to act on <a href="https://ihra.org.au/darlington-statement/">The Darlington Statement</a>, which advocates for intersex people.</p>
<p>All these commitments might seem ambitious. But they are supported by <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/arcshs/publications/private-lives/private-lives-3">research</a> and <a href="https://www.lgbtiqhealth.org.au/beyond_urgent_national_lgbtiq_mhsp_strategy">recommendations</a> from LGBTIQ+ organisations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surgery-to-make-intersex-children-normal-should-be-banned-76952">Surgery to make intersex children 'normal' should be banned</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Coalition</h2>
<p>The Liberal Party <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/strengthening-australias-world-class-health-system">promises</a> support for primary and preventative health care, expansion of telehealth services, more funding for public and private hospitals, and cost cuts for private health insurance. </p>
<p>Its women’s health platform is based on an almost $54 million commitment to “make it easier for more Australians to become parents”. <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/our-plan/supporting-senior-australians?gclid=CjwKCAjwj42UBhAAEiwACIhADgPsBsGNB7lY0BEwmpbvJAP1JcckgP0S5HiJJVWnJucZsk7NedOroBoC6jAQAvD_BwE">Aged care</a> is also a big feature of its platform, as is mental health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two women with young child sitting on sofa" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463835/original/file-20220518-15-lmu0oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Liberal Party has promised funding to help more Australians become parents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-multiethnic-female-couple-their-adorable-1061247518">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Coalition <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/lgbtihealth/pages/982/attachments/original/1652661608/LGBTIQ__Health_Australia_-_Coalition.pdf?1652661608">assures voters</a> it is “committed to supporting the mental health of the LGBTIQ+ community – particularly the LGBTIQ+ youth – as demonstrated by the ongoing investment in child and youth mental health and LGBTIQ+ specific programs and services”. </p>
<p>The Liberal Party recently announced a <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/05/05/additional-support-mental-health-and-wellbeing-lgbtiq-communities">$4.2 million funding boost</a> over three years for national services to support LGBTIQ+ mental health.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-on-katherine-deves-a-hung-parliament-and-the-new-silence-about-covid-181496">Politics with Michelle Grattan: On Katherine Deves, a hung parliament, and the new silence about COVID</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, the Coalition has a patchy history when it comes to LGBTIQ+ health. Liberal and National Party members have opposed marriage equality and LGBTIQ+ inclusive sex education. </p>
<p>Some Coalition members <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-parliament-returns-for-2022-the-religious-discrimination-bill-is-still-an-unholy-mess-176362">recently supported</a> religious exemptions allowing discrimination against LGBTIQ+ staff and transgender students in faith-based schools. </p>
<p>Liberal Party candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is vocally opposed to transgender women participating in women’s sport. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has defended Deves, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/katherine-deves-backtracks-on-apology-for-comments-about-transgender-children">wrongly saying</a> “gender reversal surgery for young adolescents” is a “significant issue”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/im-a-pediatrician-who-cares-for-transgender-kids-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-social-support-puberty-blockers-and-other-medical-options-that-improve-lives-of-transgender-youth-157285">I’m a pediatrician who cares for transgender kids – here’s what you need to know about social support, puberty blockers and other medical options that improve lives of transgender youth</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Call to focus on the real issues</h2>
<p>Research shows <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/598804/from-blues-to-rainbows-report-sep2014.pdf">discrimination</a> and lack of access to <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-will-euthanise-myself-before-i-go-into-aged-care-how-aged-care-is-failing-lgbti-people-131306">inclusive services</a> are the main contributors to the <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/1198945/Writing-Themselves-In-4-National-report.pdf">increased risk</a> of mental health problems and suicide LGBTIQ+ people face.</p>
<p>Labor and the Coalition make big promises to fund and support mental health. But these efforts are undermined by both parties’ support for <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-commits-to-religious-freedom-and-lgbtq-protections-but-no-timeline-20220509-p5ajrs.html">religious discrimination</a> and their lack of leadership on transgender inclusion in health care and in public life more broadly.</p>
<p>When it comes to LGBTIQ+ issues this election, most have played out in the mainstream media as the “transgender issue”. However, this misses some of the real issues that matter to this community – freedom from discrimination and access to quality health care.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruby Grant is a board member of LGBTIQ+ advocacy group, Equality Tasmania. She has previously received research funding from the Tasmanian Government. </span></em></p>But are the major parties really focusing on the right issues?Ruby Grant, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1812392022-04-14T05:22:28Z2022-04-14T05:22:28ZThe Greens want Medicare to cover a trip to the dentist. It’s a grand vision but short on details<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457830/original/file-20220413-25-w4ga3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C997%2C664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/european-mid-pleased-dentist-woman-face-1941089188">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Universal and affordable access to dental care is the perennial health-care issue everyone cares about but no major political party seems willing to address in any substantive way. </p>
<p>Thank goodness the Greens consistently remind us of the pressing need to make dental care an essential part of health care. This election, they’ve been quick to push out <a href="https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-04/Greens-2022-Policy-Platform--Health--Dental.pdf">their policy</a> to integrate dental care into Medicare.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1513934052839018504"}"></div></p>
<p>They propose everyone with access to Medicare be eligible for what are described as the “clinically relevant services they require”. This includes general dental, orthodontics (such as braces) and restorative services (such as crowns). </p>
<p>To make sure there are enough dental professionals, the Greens propose university education and training for the dental workforce be fee-free.</p>
<p>Such an expansive scheme is very expensive. This has been costed at A$77.6 billion over the next decade, funded with new taxes on big corporations and billionaires.</p>
<p>The Greens (who might hold some sway in a new parliament but will never be in government with budget responsibilities) have the luxury of proposing a large-scale program with no information about its presumable gradual introduction.</p>
<p>The Greens have also proposed a funding mechanism that is very unlikely to fly, given both the Coalition and Labor view new taxes and tax reforms <a href="https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/bad-politics-and-the-death-of-tax-reform,15544">as political poison</a>. </p>
<p>The Greens’ publicly available <a href="https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-04/Greens-2022-Policy-Platform--Health--Dental.pdf">policy document</a> is just three pages long and very short on detail. A number of key questions go unacknowledged and unanswered.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-love-the-greens-message-more-than-ever-but-it-may-not-lead-to-a-surge-of-votes-for-them-180671">Voters love the Greens' message more than ever – but it may not lead to a surge of votes for them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How much will this cost?</h2>
<p>The policy has been costed by the independent <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office">Parliamentary Budget Office</a>, so there must be more detail available about the program’s rollout and scope. </p>
<p>The policy document does not say if the proposed $77.6 billion investment includes, or is in addition to, current federal spending on dental care through the Medicare-funded dental services for eligible <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/child-dental-benefits-schedule">children</a>, public dentistry for some <a href="https://federalfinancialrelations.gov.au/agreements/national-partnership-public-dental-services-adults">adults</a>, and GP and hospital visits for dental needs. </p>
<p>This figure likely does not include the costs of free university education for dentists, which is part of the Greens’ <a href="https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-03/Greens-2022-Policy-Platform--Education--Free-Tafe-Uni.pdf">separate education policy</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dental students looking at dentures at university" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458072/original/file-20220414-26-u6vq6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Does the proposed funding include educating the next generation of dentists? That would cost extra.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dental-prosthesis-dentures-prosthetics-work-hands-458819089">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This $77.6 billion investment over ten years is substantial. This equates to an average of $7.7 billion a year – <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs5.pdf">about the same</a> (see table 5.8.1) as the annual cost to the federal budget of the subsidy to encourage people to purchase private health insurance.</p>
<p>However, these costs should be balanced against the economic benefits a federal government investment in a universal dental-care program would deliver in terms of reduced health-care costs and increased productivity. </p>
<h2>What is covered?</h2>
<p>The proposal is said to be costed on the basis <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjb5g5/the-greens-want-to-use-a-billionaire-tax-to-make-dental-free-for-all">that 80%</a> of dental services will be “routine”. But especially in the early years of such a program, there will be a pent-up demand from people who have <a href="https://adavb.org/news-media/media-releases/public-dental-waiting-lists-balloon-as-the-impacts-of-covid-19-bite">waited years for care</a>. These people will need more extensive and expensive services. </p>
<p>Formal guidelines about what is “routine” or “essential” and a focus on prevention and early intervention will be critical to ensure targeted care and prevent cost blow-outs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-million-aussies-delay-or-dont-go-to-the-dentist-heres-how-we-can-fix-that-113376">Two million Aussies delay or don't go to the dentist – here's how we can fix that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The workforce</h2>
<p>Having the right dental workforce in the right places is essential for universal access to dental care.</p>
<p>Simply providing free university places for dental students will not address the current situation, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30674395/">which sees</a> a surfeit of dentists in metropolitan areas and a scarcity in rural, remote and socially disadvantaged areas.</p>
<p>Many dental-care services can be delivered by <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/915-Filling-the-gap-A-universal-dental-scheme-for-Australia.pdf">dental hygienists and technicians</a> and any new scheme should encourage the most appropriate professional to deliver each service.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-brush-your-teeth-properly-according-to-a-dentist-177219">How to brush your teeth properly, according to a dentist</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is missing?</h2>
<p>The policy does not specifically address providing oral health and dental care for people with special needs, including aged-care residents or people with a physical or mental disability.</p>
<p>The campaign materials talk about “free dental care” but provide no indication as to how this will be achieved. Under Medicare, neither the fees doctors and allied health professionals charge, nor bulk billing, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/Quick_Guides/Medicare#:%7E:text=Bulk%20billing%20is%20not%20mandatory,service%20free%20to%20the%20patient.">are mandated</a>. It would be very difficult to impose set fees and a requirement to bulk bill on dental professionals.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shocking-state-of-oral-health-in-our-nursing-homes-and-how-family-members-can-help-77473">The shocking state of oral health in our nursing homes, and how family members can help</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>First steps</h2>
<p>For too many years, I <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2022">and</a> <a href="https://agedcare.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/final-report">others</a> <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/915-Filling-the-gap-A-universal-dental-scheme-for-Australia.pdf">have been writing</a> about the need to address <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/dental-care-must-be-on-the-election-agenda-its-time/">oral health and dental care</a>.</p>
<p>University of Sydney colleague Professor Heiko Spallek and I <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/dental-care-must-be-on-the-election-agenda-its-time/">recently proposed</a> that in the face of unwillingness of the major political parties to implement a universal dental-care program, there should be a more targeted approach to providing dental services.</p>
<p>For example, this could be a preventive program for children, oral hygiene programs for people in aged care, Medicare coverage of dental care for pregnant and post-partum women and for people with certain chronic medical conditions, such as cancer, diabetes or HIV/AIDS. Alternatively, a more limited approach could see the provision of designated essential services under a means-tested program.</p>
<p>I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-fill-the-gaps-in-australias-dental-health-system-35371">written before</a> about the need for teams of dental professionals and educators where they’re most needed, such as remote and under-served communities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-fill-the-gaps-in-australias-dental-health-system-35371">How to fill the gaps in Australia's dental health system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>It’s important to start the debate</h2>
<p>Dental health has a huge impact <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/dental-care-must-be-on-the-election-agenda-its-time/">on people’s quality of life</a>. This includes health outcomes, self-esteem and employability. </p>
<p>But for too many Australians, the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/915-Filling-the-gap-A-universal-dental-scheme-for-Australia.pdf">burgeoning out-of-pocket costs</a> of private dental care and <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/about-our-data/our-data-collections/public-dental-waiting-times">long waiting lists</a> for publicly-funded care are a major barrier.</p>
<p>It is time for politicians and the medical profession to see oral health and dental care as an essential health-care issue worthy of substantial investment. </p>
<p>The Greens’ proposal – despite its inadequacies – has a vision that should serve as a starting point for public debate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Russell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Such an expansive scheme is very expensive. It has been costed at A$77.6 billion over the next decade, funded with new taxes on big corporations and billionaires.Lesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676802021-09-13T19:58:38Z2021-09-13T19:58:38ZSeeing red and feeling blue? How emotions are colouring the federal election in unexpected ways<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420907/original/file-20210913-13-1mwy37w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=93%2C485%2C5063%2C3138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The emotions we attribute to party leaders on the basis of partisan affiliation may no longer hold sway in this federal election.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Emotions occupy a paradoxical place in discussions of politics. They are viewed as the enemy of reason and evidence-based decision-making. At the same time, there is increasing recognition that <a href="https://theconversation.com/persuasive-politics-why-emotional-beats-rational-for-connecting-with-voters-116098">we think <em>with</em> emotion</a>, and that feelings influence the persuasive force of political discourse.</p>
<p>This has been especially evident during the snap federal election campaign, the one that <a href="https://theconversation.com/rhetoric-check-parliament-wasnt-toxic-justin-trudeau-just-wants-a-majority-167245">no one wanted</a>, the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8148373/canada-election-polling-unsafe-ipsos-poll/">one that is generating</a> “all the feels.” There are the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19460171.2021.1963793">expected emotions such as grief, anxiety and sadness</a> that surround the COVID-19 pandemic, not to mention fear and apprehension about the fourth wave, about <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-back-to-school-qanda-is-it-safe-for-unvaccinated-children-to-go-to-school-in-person-is-the-harm-of-school-closures-greater-than-the-risk-of-the-virus-166870">unvaccinated children returning to school</a> and the grudging realization that there is no quick return to the “before” times.</p>
<p>But this federal election also feels a bit different. It is not surprising to find opposition parties (<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ipsos-poll-canadian-federal-election-anger-1.6158637">as well as a growing number of Canadians</a>) angrily denouncing Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau for calling an election in the middle of a health crisis.</p>
<p>Anger about the timing of the election is only the tip of the iceberg, however. This pandemic election is shifting the ground in unexpected ways, too. The emotions we attribute to party leaders on the basis of partisan affiliation may no longer hold sway. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trudeau getting on a bus in a crowd of people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">RCMP security detail put their hands up to protect Liberal leader Justin Trudeau from rocks as protesters shout and throw gravel as he was leaving a recent campaign stop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take master emoter “Sunny Ways” Trudeau. He’s getting testy as he struggles to stay on message in the face of loud hecklers (and violence) <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/canadas-trudeau-resumes-campaign-after-angry-crowds-disrupt-rallies">disrupting his scheduled campaign stops</a>. A leader once praised for his emotional intelligence — <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-emotional-intelligence-trudeaus-best-skill-pays-dividends">a trait that, until recently, served him well</a> — Trudeau seems to be coming undone. In the English leaders’ debate just last week, despite exhorting Canadians to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-protests-campaign-ontario-1.6156324">meet anger with compassion</a> and projecting an image of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743923X2000029X">protective masculinity</a>, Trudeau lost both <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kelly-mcparland-annamie-pauls-shredding-of-trudeau-on-feminism-and-afghanistan-was-impressive">his cool and his compassion</a> when challenged by Green Party Leader Annamie Paul on his feminist credentials.</p>
<p>For some politicians, this might elicit a shrug, or a vow to do better; for leaders like Trudeau, this is a body blow, a shock to a shirt-sleeves-rolled-up kind of leader who trades on his uncanny ability to radiate positivity and good cheer wherever he goes. </p>
<p>This is the same “Teflon Trudeau” who sashayed across the stage with the (now ghosted) do-gooder Kielburger brothers, the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-we-charity-scandal-white-saviourism-144331">white saviours</a>” who spread their feel-good gospel of charity work in developing countries.</p>
<h2>Opposition opportunity</h2>
<p>That Trudeau is losing his emotional grip on the Canadian public might lead one to assume that this is an ideal opportunity for opposition parties to pounce. Third parties in Canada tend to produce their best electoral results <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0010414004268847">in moments replete with voter resentment and alienation</a>, providing an emotional release for disaffected voters wishing to signal their dissatisfaction.</p>
<p>But for now, the third-party surge has been, well, slow to swell. After reviving the Bloc Québecois in 2019, leader Yves-François Blanchet <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/legault-slams-question-federal-debate-1.6171628">has waited until the final days</a> to inject life into a campaign that should have been brimming with nationalistic fervour from the get-go. Blanchet and highly popular Québec Premier François Legault <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/quebec-premier-praises-tory-leader-otoole-says-npd-liberals-dangerous-for-quebec">do not seem to be on the same page</a>, which is only adding confusion to the mix. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh waving in the doorway of his campaign bus." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh waves as he gets on his campaign bus in Burnaby, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even more surprising has been the lacklustre New Democratic Party. At a time in which optimism, passion and bold policy innovation are sorely needed, the party has failed to mobilize its “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/laytons-last-words-love-is-better-than-anger-hope-is-better-than-fear/article617801/">hope over fear</a>” rallying cries popularized by late leader Jack Layton. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has focused instead on <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/8158579/canada-election-ndps-singh-comments-on-liberal-candidate-continuing-to-run-despite-misconduct-allegations">attacking Liberal hypocrisy</a> and proposing <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/ndp-and-conservatives-better-positioned-to-respond-to-canadians-top-election-concerns-poll-suggests">familiar and restrained promises</a> such as student debt relief and a national pharmacare program. </p>
<p>Paul, for her part, has had to contend with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/annamie-paul-emergency-meeting-reaction-1.6068280?fbclid=IwAR2C68e9_YkZkKbcl9M5-VwQDHlF_JIHTWKkkw8SeekiguD2i9MJkf6qnVo">bitter internal strife</a> in her own party, much of it directed at her.</p>
<h2>Conservatives’ updated image</h2>
<p>Enter the Conservative Party. Fresh from <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-without-scheer-the-right-wing-values-of-the-conservatives-run-deep-126089">Andrew Scheer</a>’s unsuccessful run as leader, the party recognizes that it, too, could sway wary voters. </p>
<p>Indeed, the past few weeks have witnessed an emotional reset of the Conservative Party. Leader Erin O’Toole’s campaign has been marked by a softening — an acceptance that <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/conservative-leader-erin-otoole-announces-climate-change-plan/">climate change</a> is real (<a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7708960/conservative-party-climate-change/">even if his party continues to deny it</a>), a <a href="https://theconversation.com/erin-otooles-abortion-stance-serves-neither-physicians-nor-women-166728">pro-choice stance</a>, the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/otoole-singh-continue-public-engagements-trudeau-itinerary-marked-as-private">denouncing of angry anti-Trudeau protests</a>, and, of course, a recent vow to <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/conservative-leader-erin-otoole-to-ban-puppy-mills-protect-animal-welfare/">shut down puppy mills</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Conservative leader Erin O’Toole behind a podium in front of green lawns fenced fields" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole visits an animal shelter in King City, Ont. The Conservative campaign promises to ban puppy mills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps most surprising was O’Toole’s recent flip-flop on gun control. Drawing on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423920001031">tough-on-crime rhetoric</a>, O’Toole and his party vigorously opposed Bill C-71 in 2018. The Liberal government-tabled bill aimed to tighten existing firearm laws by, in part, enhancing background checks of would-be gunowners. At the time, <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/3/27/erin-otoole-5/">O’Toole lashed out at Bill C-71</a> for targeting “law-abiding people as opposed to law breakers.”</p>
<p>This <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/6/4/peter-kent-2/">type of rhetoric</a> — drawing heavily on harmful stereotypes about <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/6/4/peter-kent-2/">gangbangers and organized crime</a> – has come to define the Conservative Party’s opposition to gun control legislation for the past decade. In 2018, <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/6/18/ted-falk-7/">the Conservative Party attacked</a> Trudeau for focusing “their fire on law-abiding farmers, hunters, and northern Canadians” rather than on “felons, on gangs, and on the flow of illegal guns across the borders.” </p>
<p>The party’s arguments about gun control took distinctly punitive forms and, at times, strongly mirrored the rhetoric and imagery mobilized by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/17432197-8797487">U.S. President Donald Trump during the same time period</a>.</p>
<p>Although his policy position on banning assault rifles remains murky, O’Toole’s rhetoric has shifted, particularly in its emotional contours. O’Toole <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-erin-otoole-leaves-door-open-to-repealing-ban-on-guns-used-in-canadas/">has stated calmly</a> that as leader, he will ensure the party has “an approach focused on public safety, focused on maintaining restrictions in place and having a review of our classification system that removes the politics from this.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bloc Québecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, Green Party leader Annamie Paul, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Erin O'Toole before the federal election English-language leaders' debate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The election atmosphere is thick with feeling, and it may colour how voters respond at the polls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This recent emotional repositioning <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-erin-otooles-sunny-ways-have-caught-justin-trudeau-off-guard/">has some wondering if we are now entering the era of “Sunny Ways O’Toole</a>.” While his new-found optimistic messaging might seem novel, his playbook tears a page from factions of the conservative movement who <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/01/20/conservatives-mps-eject-derek-sloan-in-a-secret-ballot-vote.html">called on the party to adjust its tone and approach</a>. </p>
<p>With the backlash politics of anger and outrage consuming some of the party’s base, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-jan-13-2021-1.5871185/conservatives-must-reject-trumpism-and-address-voter-anger-rather-than-stoking-it-says-strategist-1.5871704">some vocal strategists within the party have urged</a> Conservatives to embrace compassionate policy solutions that speak to voters. Rejecting emotions that are stubbornly attached to right-wing leaders and parties seems to have its strategic advantages.</p>
<p>The election atmosphere is thick with feeling, and it shows no sign of dissipating. Not only are the electoral outcomes uncertain, the political emotions we attach to partisan affiliation are shifting, too. </p>
<p>This election may turn out to be a repeat of 2019, with the Liberals emerging victorious. But the emotional terrain on which Canada’s federal parties struggle is shifting and this may colour the political landscape for elections to come. The “sunny” Liberals under Trudeau may need to contend with Conservative clouds on the horizon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Gordon receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Orsini receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.
</span></em></p>The emotions we attach to political affiliation are shifting during this federal election. The vote may turn out to be a master class in how a party can capture the political mood and use it to its benefit.Kelly Gordon, Assistant Professor, Political Science, McGill UniversityMichael Orsini, Professor, health policy, disability, public policy, social movements, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1663012021-08-22T12:00:22Z2021-08-22T12:00:22ZProgress stops when we create and dismantle infrastructure programs every federal election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417047/original/file-20210819-21-1gns0la.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C0%2C5872%2C3956&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A construction site in Toronto in March 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to the most recent Canadian Infrastructure Report Card, <a href="http://canadianinfrastructure.ca/downloads/canadian-infrastructure-report-card-2019.pdf">the state of our infrastructure is at risk</a> — <a href="https://www.trisura.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Trisura-Infrastructure-WP-English-Update.pdf">in fact, it’s failing</a>. And our approach to tackling infrastructure has remained stagnant for decades. </p>
<p>Mired in political promises and lack of citizen engagement, Canada’s approach has focused largely on fast cash infusions to stimulate an underproductive economy. Stimulus infusions focus on spending money <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/canada-needs-more-infrastructure-spending-but-not-as-short-term-stimulus/">quickly on projects that have little value long-term</a>.</p>
<p>Canada’s election season highlights this disjointed approach. Look at election platforms over the past two decades, and you won’t find much in the way of change in terms of our approach to infrastructure investments. </p>
<p>Conservatives often tout <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-national-energy-corridor-announcement-1.5301488">energy corridors</a> and transportation for increased trade. The NDP look at social infrastructure investments, including <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-child-care-1.5302892">core housing needs</a>. The Green Party toes the line of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-jobs-transition-economy-1.5238864">green infrastructure retrofits and renewable energy investments</a>. And the Liberals fall somewhere in between each of these priority areas.</p>
<h2>The Achilles heel of any government</h2>
<p>Election platform promises about infrastructure typically focus on what hasn’t been done and how money was mismanaged. Party platforms are filled with promises to do more, but infrastructure is the Achilles heel of any government.</p>
<p>Party leaders have to talk about investing in infrastructure during the election, but if elected they have little funding to work with, combined with a largely hypercritical audience that doesn’t want to spend money.</p>
<p>We cannot simply blame politicians. Our political priorities are, after all, a reflection of the average Canadians ignorance to infrastructure. Something along the lines of “I want the road fixed, but I don’t realize how much it costs and I don’t want to pay for it” often summarizes the average thinking. </p>
<p>So how do you tackle this in an election platform?</p>
<p>The newly announced Conservative <a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">Canada’s Recovery Plan</a> reads a lot like the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/prog/eap-pae-eng.html">Economic Action Plan</a> of years past. It’s not far off of the Liberals’ post-pandemic recovery either. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/prog/eap-pae-eng.html">Harper-era Action Plan</a> and its predecessor, the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/prog/bcp-pcc-eng.html">2007 Building Canada Plan</a>, touted billions of dollars in investments, <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2015/docs/themes/infrastructure-eng.html">many of which were targeted towards infrastructure</a>. Their election plan discusses “<a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">building infrastructure to get the economy moving</a>,” focusing on high-speed internet and transportation. </p>
<p>The NDP fixates on “building the infrastructure we need,” with a focus on infrastructure that <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/communities?focus=13934154&nothing=nothing">makes communities more liveable and helps fight climate change</a>. If <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2021/home-accueil-en.html">Budget 2021</a> is any indication, the Liberals will continue to toe a party line that pushes for economic recovery while dealing with social and green infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People stand at a podium during a press conference as building is taking place in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Construction of the future LRT line is visible to the left at the Ottawa MacDonald-Cartier International Airport in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/David Kawai</span></span>
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<h2>Infrastructure gap in Indigenous communities</h2>
<p>One of the largest areas for opportunity is addressing the infrastructure gap in Indigenous communities. The Liberals’ Budget 2021 had a focus on building an <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2021/report-rapport/p3-en.html">inclusive economic recovery</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2021-18-billion-is-a-step-towards-closing-gaps-between-indigenous-and-non-indigenous-communities-159104">especially for Indigenous communities</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-communities-should-dictate-how-1-billion-infrastructure-investment-is-spent-158027">Indigenous communities should dictate how $1 billion infrastructure investment is spent</a>
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<p>The Conservatives have promised to promote “mutually beneficial conversations” between Indigenous communities and resource project proponents, promising <a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">shared benefits from Canada’s resource development</a>. The NDP promises a platform of <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/reconciliation">building resilient communities, focusing on reliable infrastructure and renewable energy</a>. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-communities-should-dictate-how-1-billion-infrastructure-investment-is-spent-158027">major reform is needed</a> before progress on closing the infrastructure gap can be seen.</p>
<p>A stimulus-focused <a href="https://www.renewcanada.net/feature/should-we-change-the-definition-of-shovel-ready/">“shovel-ready” approach</a> is limited and short-sighted. Most government approaches focus on shovel-ready, yielding <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/october-2016/economic-performance-and-policy-during-the-harper-years/">middle-ground projects that didn’t meet community needs or demands</a>. The Liberal party has been criticized for spending “<a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">all its time announcing and re-announcing the money it planned to spend, but has failed to get shovels in the ground</a>.”</p>
<h2>Investments aren’t enough</h2>
<p>Investments in community infrastructure have long been touted as <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-money/what-the-countrys-top-entrepreneurs-would-include-in-the-federal-budget/article16681423/">vital to keeping the economy going and improving quality of life for Canadians</a>. While they yield <a href="https://www.iuoelocal793.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Broadbent-Study.pdf">growth in GDP which leads to increases in wages and standard of living</a>, they often aren’t enough. </p>
<p>Past governments have shelled out billions, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/infrastructure-election-trudeau-scheer-1.5322892">with persistent problems in addressing the true need</a>. We know that <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-history-shows-spending-on-infrastructure-doesnt-always-end-well-165653">infrastructure spending doesn’t always end well</a>, especially when disconnected from community needs and engagement.</p>
<p>You can’t balance the budget and close the infrastructure gap without long-term planning that transcends political parties. Infrastructure requires <a href="https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Public-Infrastructure-Projects-Iacobacci-final.pdf">solid business cases</a> given the high capital required. </p>
<p>The Conservatives have promised to dismantle the <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-statement-on-trudeaus-failed-infrastructure-plan/">Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB)</a>, and so <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/infrastructure-bank-to-invest-10-billion-in-priority-areas-for-pandemic-recovery-1.5127925">have the NDP</a>. The Liberals’ approach to the CIB is certain to be <a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/08/05/210282/210282">a political issue for all parties this election</a> because the CIB encourages private investments. But questions remain around whether private investments <a href="https://canadians.org/analysis/public-private-partnerships-have-no-place-canadas-post-covid-just-recovery">actually result in lower costs and faster delivery</a>, and how effective and efficient the CIB is. However, no progress can be made when we create and dismantle infrastructure programs with every election change.</p>
<p>Infrastructure is complex. It requires private and public investments, it must account for our changing climate and it must be visionary in its long-term approach. Infrastructure is about more than just technology access or increasing trade — it’s about community and people. We need to see through the political rhetoric, and move beyond the excitement and allure of new jobs and funding. </p>
<p>What we are building is not as important as why we are building it. Infrastructure investments can’t just be an election promise, they must be a national priority — one that moves beyond the politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Black receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council. </span></em></p>Canada’s election season highlights the country’s disjointed approach to infrastructure, which focuses largely on fast cash infusions to stimulate an underproductive economy.Kerry Black, Assistant Professor and Canada Research Chair, Integrated Knowledge, Engineering and Sustainable Communities, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1275772019-11-28T11:05:34Z2019-11-28T11:05:34ZWhy vote Green when mainstream parties are finally taking climate change seriously?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303149/original/file-20191122-74580-150fpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/7razCd-RUGs">Andreas Gücklhorn/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This is the first UK general election during which <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Ujjrg4ddB4gC">environmental issues</a> are playing a prominent role in the campaign. Numerous scientific <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0">reports</a> emphasising the urgent need for action on the climate crisis have helped Extinction Rebellion, David Attenborough, Greta Thunberg and the school climate strikes to grab media attention. Finally, this is reflected in most political parties’ manifestos. And for the first time, most party leaders will go head to head in a televised climate debate.</p>
<p>Concerns about the climate may even shape the way many people cast their vote. Typically, well under <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/07/which-issues-will-decide-general-election">10%</a> of the electorate identify the environment as one of the major issues facing the country. But this election, the figure has soared: today, around <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/07/which-issues-will-decide-general-election">a quarter</a> of voters do. </p>
<p>While all the established parties have made climate pledges, it is Labour that has seemingly undergone the most profound transformation through its embrace of a <a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/a-green-industrial-revolution/">green industrial revolution</a>. This has always been the Green Party’s <em>raison d’etre</em>. But with Labour, a mainstream party, colonising traditional green territory, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2017.1361566">what is the point</a> of the Green Party now?</p>
<h2>Green industrial revolution</h2>
<p>Labour’s <a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/">manifesto</a> certainly reflects the huge shift in party policy since the launch of its new environmental programme a year ago. </p>
<p>A £250 billion “Green Transformation Fund”, partly funded by a windfall tax on the oil (but not gas) industry, will be used to create a million “climate jobs” that will provide renewable and low-carbon energy and transport, and environmental protection. Labour also sets some very ambitious targets: aiming to deliver nearly 90% of electricity and 50% of heat from renewable and low-carbon sources (notably wind, solar and nuclear) by 2030. The party also promises to upgrade “almost all” of the UK’s 27m homes to the highest energy efficiency standards, decreasing demand (and bills). </p>
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<p>Significantly, the overarching target to achieve a “substantial majority of our emissions reductions by 2030” does represent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/18/labour-persuaded-to-soften-pledge-of-net-zero-emissions-by-2030">a weakening</a> of the controversial autumn party conference commitment to a 2030 net zero carbon emissions target - although it still adheres to the <a href="https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/2030-or-bust-5-key-takeaways-ipcc-report">IPCC report</a> stating that most emission cuts need to be made by 2030.</p>
<p>This climb down reflects strong lobbying by trade union leaders, such as <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/how-labour-s-manifesto-diluted-radical-policies-its-grassroots">Len McCluskey</a>, who argued that 2030 was a completely unrealistic target. This position reflects the view of many experts, not least the independent <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">Climate Change Committee</a>, which identifies 2050 as a more realistic target date. </p>
<p>But the union view does raise some doubts about the genuine commitment of union leaders to climate policies that will require their members to give up their petrol and diesel cars, replace their gas boilers and curb flying. </p>
<p>Union leaders also have wider concerns, expressed in the manifesto, about the need to ensure a <a href="https://braveneweurope.com/michael-jacobs-labours-green-new-deal-is-among-the-most-radical-in-the-world-but-can-it-be-done-by-2030">just transition</a> of the quarter of a million workers in the oil and gas industries into new green jobs. These are important concerns, which Labour addresses through a set of skills and retraining policies. Overall, the package as a whole and the prominence it is given in the manifesto represents a fundamental step change by Labour.</p>
<h2>The greens are greener</h2>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/Elections/Green%20Party%20Manifesto%202019.pdf">Green manifesto</a> still trumps Labour’s by committing explicitly to a 2030 net zero emissions target and through the sheer scale of its promise to spend £100 billion annually on achieving the zero carbon economy. </p>
<p>Key environmental measures include the introduction of a carbon tax on all fossil fuels; major investment in green industries, including a commitment to a just transition involving the retraining of workers moving from “brown” to “green” jobs; planting 700m trees (Labour commits only to an “ambitious programme of tree planting”) and transforming 50% of farms into agro-forestry funded by a tax on meat and dairy products; retrofitting 10m homes to meet the top A-rating for energy efficiency; and banning single-use plastic packaging. In contrast to Labour, the Greens remain committed to prohibiting the construction of new nuclear power stations – a longstanding Green shibboleth.</p>
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<p>Beyond environmental concerns, the two parties make a range of broadly similar commitments including a second referendum on a Brexit deal (with Remain an option), major investments in public services and scrapping university tuition fees. But the Greens also include a radical promise to introduce a universal basic income of £89 per person per week and they support a significant liberalisation of drugs policies.</p>
<p>So where does this leave the Greens? Clearly, the party continues to have a more radical and comprehensive environmental programme, which – because it is in their DNA – it will always prioritise. </p>
<p>But the Greens are also a strong Remain party – and, as I have <a href="https://pure.york.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/brexit-and-uk-environmental-policy-and-politics(fc42bda5-b4e7-4dcd-8fcc-ebb5cd4e2c8e).html">researched</a>, Brexit is likely to destabilise the UK’s environmental policy. </p>
<p>While the pact with the <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/guide-remain-pact-between-liberal-democrats-plaid-cymru-and-greens">Liberal Democrats</a> gives the Greens a slim chance of winning an additional seat, Labour’s refusal to agree to a progressive alliance means that in many Labour/Conservative marginal seats, a strong showing for the Greens might have the effect of tipping the balance in favour of the Conservatives. </p>
<p>Ironically, voting Green in these constituencies may allow the Conservatives to secure a majority that will ensure Brexit – and the possibility of a significant dismantling of existing environmental regulations as part of future trade deals negotiated by a Johnson government.</p>
<p>Labour’s new green credentials may help persuade wavering voters to support Corbyn. But as many Green voters are Remainers, they may do so reluctantly. Longer term though, Labour will need to demonstrate a serious and lasting commitment to the green industrial revolution, and the presence of an active and dynamic Green Party will be vital in helping to keep Labour on track.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerA">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Carter has previously received funding from the Leverhulme Trust to study UK climate policy and from the Economic and Social Research Council to study political parties and climate change. He is a member of WWF and Friends of the Earth.</span></em></p>The presence of an active and dynamic Green Party would be vital in helping to keep Labour on track.Neil Carter, Professor in Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1256212019-10-23T13:50:16Z2019-10-23T13:50:16ZFederal election frustrations for the Greens highlight electoral system flaws — again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298214/original/file-20191022-55679-1c20nk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=87%2C73%2C4324%2C3180&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">About 4,000 climate activists and pro-pipeline supporters gathered on the steps of the Alberta legislature in Edmonton on Oct. 19, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dave Chidley</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For an election that was sometimes <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/20/world/canada-election-october-21-intl/index.html">described as being about “nothing”</a>, it turned out to be an important one for climate change policy and the environment. </p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the federal election, hundreds of thousands of people, stirred up by teenage activist Greta Thunberg, marched through the streets in Canada in support of action on climate change. The turnout reflected the fact that <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/tag/climate-change/">public opinion polling</a> consistently showed that the environment, and more specifically climate change, was a top issue for Canadians.</p>
<p>All the party leaders, except Andrew Scheer and Maxime Bernier, joined the marchers to highlight their commitments to action on climate change. The Greens may have hoped the momentum might buoy them to a strong election outcome, perhaps even official party status. </p>
<p>Even though the election provided the Greens with what was in some ways their best outcome ever, in the end they fell short, leaving a complicated landscape ahead. </p>
<h2>Widespread support but not seats</h2>
<p>The Greens obtained nearly 1.2 million votes — the greatest number in the party’s history — and 6.5 per cent of the popular vote, falling slightly short of their 2008 record. </p>
<p>But support for the Greens, which is widely distributed across Canada, is notoriously inefficient at being translated into seats. That reality proved true again in this election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-in-every-riding-support-climate-action-new-research-shows-122918">Canadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows</a>
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<p>The Greens held onto two seats in British Columbia and beat out a Liberal incumbent in New Brunswick — their best showing yet. But three seats is not enough for official party status in the House of Commons. </p>
<h2>Strategic voting hurts Greens, saves Liberals</h2>
<p>The Greens have held the balance of power in British Columbia’s NDP-minority government since 2017. But with the number of Liberal and NDP seats totalling 181 at the federal level, the Greens may have only limited influence on Trudeau’s minority government. </p>
<p>The Greens, however, can claim success in other ways. </p>
<p>Their <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/">polling numbers</a> remained consistent — around 10 per cent — until the final weekend of the campaign. This forced the other progressive parties, particularly the Liberals and the NDP, to shore up the environment and climate change dimensions of their platforms, including more ambitious climate change targets, to avoid losing potential voters to the Greens.</p>
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<span class="caption">Green Party Leader Elizabeth May casts her vote in Sidney, B.C.</span>
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<p>In Ontario, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6061446/the-liberals-dominated-many-battleground-greater-toronto-area-ridings/">voters made last-minute decisions</a> to back Trudeau’s government and block a potential Conservative victory. Those choices came at the expense of the NDP, and to a lesser extent the Greens, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. </p>
<p>The resulting electoral map looks surprisingly similar to the outcome of the <a href="http://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2014/06/13/the-2014-ontario-election-outcome-the-electoral-politics-of-economic-transitions/">2014 provincial election</a>. The Liberals and NDP split northern Ontario and the cities and towns in the south, while the Conservatives were left with their traditional southern and central rural Ontario base. The outcome reinforces the argument that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2019/will-the-ford-era-lead-to-a-political-realignment-in-ontario/">Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s 2018 election victory was an aberration</a>, and one that Ontario voters didn’t want to risk repeating at the federal level.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>The Green’s presence in the election, and particularly leader Elizabeth May’s role in the leaders’ debates, was instrumental in keeping climate change and environmental issues at the forefront of the campaign. </p>
<p>Some, including May, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-green-party-elizabeth-may-profile-climate-change-election/">argue that outcome</a> is more important than seat counts. It may also be, under Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the best the Greens can hope for for the time being. </p>
<p>The election again highlighted how badly the current system works for smaller parties whose support, however substantial, is widely distributed across the country. The Bloc Québécois earned 1.2 percentage points more of the popular vote than the Greens. But with its support concentrated entirely in Québec, the Bloc emerged with 32 seats compared to the Green’s three. </p>
<p>In an age where the regional divisions in Canada seem to be deepening, the need to move to a system that rewards support across the nation and is less favourable to parties rooted in regional grievance seems more urgent than ever. </p>
<p>Both major parties have emerged from this federal election thinking the existing system has worked in their favour. This makes the prospects for reform, once part of the <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/New-plan-for-a-strong-middle-class.pdf">2015 Liberal platform</a>, seem even further out of reach. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a story originally published on Oct 23, 2019. It clarifies the result of the Bloc Québécois in the federal election.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation. </span></em></p>Hundreds of thousands of people marched through the streets in support of action on climate change, but that didn’t lead to seats for the Green Party.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1241442019-10-10T21:06:52Z2019-10-10T21:06:52ZClimate change is a top issue for Canadians. What should voters look for?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296307/original/file-20191009-3917-nkrwzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C53%2C2860%2C2061&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh participates in a climate strike event as he makes a campaign stop in Victoria on Friday, Sept. 27, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-siberia-russia-wildfires/">forest fires in Siberia</a> to <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/high-temperatures-smash-all-time-records-alaska-early-july-2019">record-high temperatures in Alaska</a> to the <a href="http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2019/08/europes-warm-air-spikes-greenland-melting-to-record-levels/">melting of the Greenland ice sheet</a>, 2019 has seen the mounting evidence of climate change. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/election-2019-is-a-battle-to-define-the-agenda/">climate change being one of the top issues in the federal election,</a> we need to take a look at what effective emissions reduction policies look like.</p>
<p>The party platforms differ substantially on their strategies to reduce emissions. During the English language debate, party leaders discussed their policies on oil and gas extraction, home retrofits and transportation, among others. The range of possibilities spanned from doing very little (Conservative) to aggressive (NDP and Green), and in between (Liberal).</p>
<h2>Energy and emissions in Canada</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s energy and non-energy emissions, in megatonnes (Mt)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data from UN Climate Change</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2017, more than 80 per cent of Canada’s human-made (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions were from the <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/65715">extraction, conversion and consumption of energy derived from fossil fuels, primarily natural gas and crude oil</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Primary energy supply for Canada, in petajoules (PJ)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2510002901">Data from Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0029-01</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">Limiting global temperatures to 1.5C this century</a> will require net-global emissions to reach zero by no later than 2055. </p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/paris-agreement.html">Canada is a signatory to the Paris climate agreement</a>, the federal, provincial and territorial governments need policies that reduce energy-related emissions rapidly, yet are both politically and economically palatable.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy demand in Canada’s end-use sectors, in petajoules (PJ)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2510002901">Data from Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0029-01</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These policies will need to target the different energy systems found across the country: the primary energy supply (more than 80 per cent supplied from sources of crude oil, natural gas, coal, and natural gas liquids); the energy conversion processes (thermal power plants and refineries); the distribution processes and the end-use sectors (industry, transportation, buildings and agriculture/forestry).</p>
<h2>Emissions reduction policies</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, there are three categories of energy policy that can be used to reduce emissions: <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222646526_The_four_'R's_of_energy_security">reduction, replacement and restriction</a>.</p>
<p><strong><em>Reduction</em></strong></p>
<p>These policies aim to reduce energy demand without changing the system or its energy supply. If the policy leads drivers <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/planning.shtml">to take fewer trips or use less fuel</a>, it has done its job. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-carbon-tax-means-for-you-114671">Here's what the carbon tax means for you</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Other examples of reduction policies include financial incentives to reduce energy demand, such as <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-invests-in-energy-efficiency-retrofits-in-canadian-municipalities-811885531.html">encouraging building retrofits through grants and low-cost loans</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/35876.pdf">reducing heat losses from industrial processes</a>.</p>
<p><strong><em>Replacement</em></strong></p>
<p>These policies aim to change our energy sources or parts of our energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They can be focused on parts of the energy system, like replacing incandescent bulbs with light-emitting diodes (LEDs) or conventional vehicles with hybrid-electric vehicles. </p>
<p>They can also focus on the sources of the energy being consumed, like <a href="https://www.americancoalcouncil.org/page/biomass">replacing coal with co-fired coal and biomass in a thermal generating station</a> or <a href="https://www.targray.com/biofuels/blends/e10-ethanol">substituting petroleum transportation fuels with mixtures of petroleum and biofuel</a>.</p>
<p><strong><em>Restriction</em></strong> </p>
<p>These policies are a more aggressive type of replacement policy. They target parts of the energy system and the energy it consumes, replacing them with new processes and energy sources to meet existing demand. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/end-coal">transition from coal to natural gas and renewables in Ontario</a> to improve air quality is an example of a restriction where thermal plants operating with coal were shuttered in favour of new natural gas, solar and wind facilities. Restrictions can also apply to end-use sectors, such as consumers opting to buy electric vehicles rather than conventional petroleum vehicles.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-vehicles-canada-tops-the-charts-for-poor-fuel-economy-115213">When it comes to vehicles, Canada tops the charts for poor fuel economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Emissions reduction and energy security</h2>
<p>Developing and implementing the necessary emissions-reduction policies for a rapid decline in emissions is challenging, since these policies will impact every sector of Canadian society. </p>
<p>This can be seen in <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/putting-price-on-carbon-pollution.html">the five provinces that are subject to the federal government’s carbon-pricing system</a>, which targets energy-use in all sectors of the economy: industrial, transportation, residential and commercial buildings and agriculture.</p>
<p>To be acceptable, the policies must be implemented with minimal risk to the supply and price of energy to Canadians and the Canadian economy. However, policies that are ill-conceived or poorly implemented can inadvertently increase the risks to the energy security of an energy system. </p>
<p>An energy system is said to be energy secure if it is <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v42y2012icp221-231.html">resilient to risks from events caused by human activities, natural disasters, structural failures and policy changes</a>. Secure systems are able to <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/energysecurity/">maintain the availability and affordability of the energy consumed by the end-users</a>.</p>
<p>The world has seen several recent examples of energy systems that are not resilient. In 2011, an <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx">earthquake and tsunami caused a nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan</a> affected both the affordability and availability of electricity. The risk of downed lines causing fires forced <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/PG-E-power-shut-off-257-000-Bay-Area-residents-14500945.php">Pacific Gas and Electric to cut electricity supply to 800,000 customers</a> in California. Similarly, the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/explaining-sky-high-gasoline-prices/article25579063/">rapid increase in gasoline prices</a> in 2008 affected the commuting habits of many Canadians.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carlos Lama reads by the light of his phone in a restaurant in Sausalito, Calif., on Wed., Oct. 8. 2019. Pacific Gas & Electric cut power to more than half a million customers in Northern California hoping to prevent wildfires during dry, windy weather throughout the region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Dep/Marin Independent Journal via AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With each disruption, the energy system must <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274097636_The_effects_of_event_occurrence_and_duration_on_resilience_and_adaptation_in_energy_systems">adapt to the new conditions</a> to remain secure. Adaptation can, in turn, be a risk to the availability and affordability of the energy supplied to the jurisdiction. </p>
<p>If we look at the major parties’ approaches to this conundrum, we find several trade-offs. </p>
<p>The Conservative Party’s strategy of moving ahead with greenhouse gas intensive oil and gas projects does have the benefit of mitigating the risks of availability and affordability for consumers, but comes with serious long-term climate change risks. </p>
<p>The Greens and the NDP present the opposite option, with action on climate change coming at the expense of energy security. </p>
<p>The Liberals lie somewhere in the middle. They are offering some climate action, but meaningful risks to both energy security — from higher carbon pricing — and long-term climate change impacts — from continued expansion of oil and gas extraction — remain. </p>
<h2>The climate-action backlash</h2>
<p>Canada currently relies on emissions intensive energy sources. If we are to achieve our emissions reductions targets by 2055, reduction policies will likely have an impact on the availability and affordability of energy. </p>
<p>We have already seen examples of politicians ignoring or scrapping existing emission reduction policies and groups affected by the policies pushing back against them. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/climate/climate-rule-trump-reversing.html">United States</a>, the Trump administration is reversing many climate regulations, and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/gilet-jaunes-yellow-vests-go-green-as-europeans-demand-climate-action/a-47638974">in France</a>, the unequal application of climate policy was one of the main reasons the yellow-vest movement was formed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yellow vest protesters march in Paris, May 11, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Michel Euler</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-jason-kenney-carbon-tax-queens-park-1.5121307">While in Canada</a>, Conservative premiers are pushing back against the federal government’s carbon-pricing policies. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-doug-ford-doctrine-short-term-gain-for-long-term-pain-116131">The Doug Ford doctrine: Short-term gain for long-term pain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So what is the climate-conscious voter to do? </p>
<p>They should look for details on how each party plans to transform the energy system and its impact on their province. This means understanding how electricity is generated, how buildings are heated and cooled, and how goods and people are moved.</p>
<p>In Monday’s debate, the prime minister said, “We recognize
that transition to clean energy will not happen overnight.” </p>
<p>While undoubtedly true, one is left with the question, how many nights do we have?</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Larry Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls show that climate change is one of the top-three issues for Canadians heading to the ballot box.Larry Hughes, Professor and Founding Fellow at the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229352019-09-11T14:51:29Z2019-09-11T14:51:29ZCanada’s Liberals make it hard for green voters to love them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291757/original/file-20190910-190061-cl97zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C167%2C4412%2C2810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters take part in a pipeline expansion demonstration in Vancouver in June 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent appearance in the province of Ontario of Premier Doug Ford’s anti-carbon pricing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-anti-carbon-tax-stickers-1.5257747">gas pump stickers</a> reinforced the central role environmental issues may play in this federal election campaign.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/appeal-carbon-ford-ontario-supreme-1.5262871">Ontario</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-carbon-tax-supreme-court-appeal-1.5157465">Saskatchewan</a> are also appealing, to the Supreme Court of Canada, rulings by courts in their own provinces that the federal backstop carbon pricing scheme is constitutional.</p>
<p>Climate change and carbon pricing are already well-established as major fracture points among the main federal parties in Canada. The Liberals, NDP and Greens all favour some form of national carbon-pricing regime to combat climate change. <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/climate-and-jobs">New Democrats</a> and <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/media-release/2019-05-16/elizabeth-may-unveils-mission-possible-%E2%80%93-green-climate-action-plan">the Greens</a> have consistently pressed for an approach on climate change that’s more aggressive than the one the Liberals are taking.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-climate-plan/">Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives</a>, for their part, while acknowledging climate change is a significant problem, oppose any form of comprehensive carbon pricing. They have proposed a charge on large industrial facilities that emit greenhouse gases above a limit they have yet to specify.</p>
<p>Although similar in some ways to the Liberals’ <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/output-based-pricing-system.html">output-based carbon pricing mechanism</a> for industrial facilities, their proposal stops there. </p>
<p>The sources covered by the Conservative proposal account, at best, for <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">about half</a> of Canada’s emissions. There is no real plan for the remainder other than a home energy retrofit program and investments in research and new technologies. </p>
<h2>Climate change a key issue</h2>
<p>Public opinion polling has shown <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/is-climate-change-an-emergency-and-do-canadians-support-a-made-in-canada-green-new-deal/">rising concern</a> in Canada about climate change. Public attention has been focused by reports from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, and Canadians’ own experiences of unprecedented <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/climate-change-is-making-wildfires-in-canada-hotter-and-more-dangerous/">wildfires</a> in Western Canada and Ontario over the past few years, and of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/30/canada-flooding-quebec-montreal-justin-trudeau-climate-change">this spring’s flooding</a> in Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-in-every-riding-support-climate-action-new-research-shows-122918">Canadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A substantial majority of Canadians now seem prepared <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/broad-support-for-a-wide-range-of-policies-including-carbon-pricing-to-help-reduce-emissions-and-fight-climate-change/">to accept</a> some form of carbon pricing, a view buttressed by the Liberals’ politically deft delivery of rebates to most taxpayers.</p>
<p>All of this supports a Liberal strategy to repeat key elements of their 2015 campaign that led to their victory. Four years ago, the Liberals sought to consolidate moderate and progressive voters who might have otherwise cast ballots for the NDP, the Greens or the Bloc Québécois as the best option to prevent an anti-environment Conservative victory.</p>
<p>Yet the Liberals have created more than a few problems for themselves this time around. The most prominent and controversial has been their aggressive support for major expansions of carbon-intensive export infrastructure, most notably the approval, purchase and re-approval of the Alberta-to-British Columbia <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269">Trans Mountain</a> pipeline expansion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The re-approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has angered environmental voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The expansion of oilsands production facilitated by the Trans Mountain and other pipelines <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/01/21/news/ipcc-authors-urge-neb-consider-climate-impacts-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion">may undermine</a> much of what is gained in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through carbon pricing and other measures. </p>
<p>A phaseout of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2018/12/canadas-coal-power-phase-out-reaches-another-milestone.html">coal-fired</a> electricity has been accelerated, but a much-discussed <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/managing-pollution/energy-production/fuel-regulations/clean-fuel-standard.html">low-carbon fuel</a> standard has yet to see light of day. </p>
<h2>Other headaches for the Liberals</h2>
<p>Complications arise on other files as well. </p>
<p>One of central features of <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/New-plan-for-a-strong-middle-class.pdf">2015 Liberal platform</a> was a commitment to “restore protections” lost through changes to the federal environmental assessment process, the Fisheries Act regarding fish habitat and the Navigable Waters Protection Act. The changes were contained in former prime minister Stephen Harper’s notorious <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/a-rough-guide-to-bill-c-38/">Bill C-38</a>.</p>
<p>The final results of the Liberal efforts — in the form of Bills C-68 and C-69, adopted in June — are a mixed bag. The best outcomes are contained in <a href="https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/canada-has-a-new-fisheries-act-how-does-it-stack-up/">Bill C-68</a> since it restores, and some argue actually improves, the fish habitat protection provisions of the Fisheries Act. </p>
<p>The situation with C-69 is much less positive. </p>
<p>The bill was subject to vociferous opposition from Western Canada and Conservative members of the Senate, even though the end result suggests that opposition wasn’t remotely justified. The bill’s provisions around navigable waters effectively leave Harper’s C-38 framework intact, stripping federal protection from all but a few hundred of Canada’s millions of navigable waterways.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cooling-the-rhetoric-on-canadas-environmental-assessment-efforts-113539">Cooling the rhetoric on Canada's environmental assessment efforts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The situation with respect to the federal assessment process isn’t much better. The bill does contain <a href="https://www.wcel.org/media-release/environmental-groups-give-federal-impact-assessment-act-c-grade">modest improvements</a> to the assessment process relative to the C-38 version — notably removing restrictions on public participation and requiring better justifications of assessment decisions. </p>
<p>However, regulations announced this summer make it clear that the range of projects like mines, oilsands projects, dams and pipelines subject to the federal environmental assessment process will actually be <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/2019/08/21/government-backslides-climate-commitments-new-regulation/">substantially narrower</a> than they were under Harper’s legislation. </p>
<p>A promised trigger for reviews based on the potential greenhouse gas emissions associated with projects has disappeared altogether. Ironically, the Liberals’ last-minute cave-in to the resource sector has done nothing to win any good will in Western Canada — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5829158/constitutional-challenge-bill-c69-ucp-alberta-industrial-projects/">has stated</a> that he intends to pursue a constitutional challenge against the legislation anyway. </p>
<h2>Voting as an environmentalist</h2>
<p>Given a Liberal record that is decidedly mixed, and a Conservative official opposition party that offers little hope of progress and very real risks of serious retrenchment, what are environmentally concerned voters to do?</p>
<p>The situation is further complicated by the consideration that despite substantial efforts to establish its environmental bona fides, even at the cost <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4227693/jagmeet-singh-trans-mountain-bc/">of alienating</a> Rachel Notley’s former NDP government in Alberta over the Trans Mountain pipeline issue, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats appear to have entered the election campaign in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-nomination-candidates-1.5263840">serious disarray</a>. The party now faces increasingly serious challenges from Elizabeth May’s Greens in some parts of the country. </p>
<p>Nationally, the Green party appears well-positioned to beat its previous 2008 high of 940,000 votes in the October election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">May is arrested by RCMP officers after joining protesters outside Kinder Morgan’s facility in Burnaby, B.C., in March 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A major challenge for the Greens remains that their voters tend to be widely distributed geographically, meaning that their successes rarely translate into seats. In fact, the party’s impressive 2008 vote performance produced precisely zero elected members to the House of Commons. </p>
<p>The Greens are likely to do better this time, reinforced by strong performances by its smattering of recently elected members at the provincial level in <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-win-three-seats-in-british-columbia-election-1.3406473">British Columbia</a>, <a href="https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/guelph/ontario-history-made-as-guelph-goes-green-1.3962669">Ontario</a>,<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-greens-pei-election-1.5108845">Prince Edward Island</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/green-party-new-brunswick-election-1.4835192">New Brunswick.</a></p>
<p>Seats in southern B.C., Vancouver Island, Atlantic Canada and a scattering of other locations, like the Kitchener-Waterloo-Guelph region in Ontario, are possible. Whether the result amounts to enough to hold a balance of power in what could be a <a href="https://www.lispop.ca/seat-projection/federal">minority parliament</a> is anyone’s guess.</p>
<p>At the same time, voting Green risks further splitting the environmental vote, helping the Conservatives, particularly in tight races.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-environmental-contradictions-could-pave-way-for-conservative-win-117362">Liberal environmental contradictions could pave way for Conservative win</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There’s also a real risk <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/checkup/what-motivates-you-to-participate-in-this-year-s-federal-election-1.4973867/millennials-could-swing-the-2019-election-but-parties-need-to-engage-them-says-pollster-1.4976824">of younger</a> voters choosing not to cast ballots at all in the face of a series of unattractive choices. </p>
<p>Given the Conservatives’ very <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-youth-turnout-1.5256600">loyal and reliable base</a>, that trend could work in their favour. </p>
<p>There’s no doubt this election will have a major impact on Canada’s efforts to combat climate change. But how best to approach the available choices remains a serious dilemma for Canadian voters as they head to the ballot box. </p>
<p>Election campaigns are often clarifying events, and this race is likely to deliver that and more for the environment. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122935/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation.</span></em></p>This election will have a major impact on Canada’s efforts to combat climate change. But how best to approach the available choices on the ballot remains a serious dilemma for Canadian voters.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229182019-09-05T17:56:11Z2019-09-05T17:56:11ZCanadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290969/original/file-20190904-175663-142n1nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C368%2C5565%2C2971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to new research, the majority of Canadians in all but three ridings across the country believe their province has already felt the effects of climate change. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s fall election is in full swing and climate policy will likely be at the centre of debate. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/pricing-carbon-pollution/">trumpeting</a> their carbon pricing policy, while Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives want to <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-climate-plan/">get rid of it</a>. Meanwhile, Elizabeth May and her <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-green-party-wave-could-spread-across-canada-115970">newly relevant</a> Greens think Canada <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/mission-possible">must do more</a> to manage the climate crisis.</p>
<p>But where do Canadian voters stand on this issue?</p>
<p>Our research team, based at the Université de Montréal and the University of California Santa Barbara, has new public opinion data to answer this question. Using recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159774">statistical and political science advances</a>, we can estimate Canadian opinion in every single riding across the country (except for the less densely populated territories, where data collection is sparse). And we’ve released on <a href="https://www.umontreal.ca/climat/engl/">online tool</a> so anyone can see how their local riding compares to others across the country.</p>
<h2>Canadians are concerned about climate change</h2>
<p>Our results reinforce what is increasingly clear: climate change is on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/will-climate-change-be-a-ballot-box-question-in-2019/">the minds of Canadians</a>, and not just in urban or coastal communities. A majority of Canadians in every single riding believe the climate is changing. The highest beliefs are in Halifax, where 93 per cent of the public believe climate change is happening. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Canadians, by riding, who believe climate change is happening.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And a majority of Canadians in all but three ridings think their province has already experienced the impacts of climate change. These beliefs are particularly high in Québec, where 79 per cent feel the impacts of climate change have already arrived. </p>
<p>Canadians also want to see the government take the climate threat seriously. </p>
<p>A majority of voters supports <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jul/05/what-is-emissions-trading">emissions trading</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jan/31/carbon-tax-cap-and-trade">Carbon taxation</a> is more divisive, yet more people support carbon taxation than don’t in 88 per cent of Canadian ridings. </p>
<p>And the handful of ridings that <a href="https://www.umontreal.ca/climat/engl/">don’t support</a> the Trudeau government’s carbon pricing policy — Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, for example — are already in Conservative hands. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-carbon-tax-means-for-you-114671">Here's what the carbon tax means for you</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In other words, the path to a majority government — or even a minority government — goes through many ridings where Canadians are worried about climate change and want the government to take aggressive action.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-1338.2012.00563.x">Compared to the United States</a>, the Canadian public believes climate change is happening in far higher shares. Even Canadian ridings where belief in climate change is the lowest have comparable beliefs to liberal states like Vermont and Washington. Overall Canadian support for a carbon tax is higher than support for a carbon tax in California, often thought of as the most environmentally progressive U.S. state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Canadians, by riding, who believe their province has already been impacted by climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Importantly, support for specific climate policies remains high in provinces that have already implemented climate laws. For instance, support for a carbon tax in British Columbia, where this policy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.011">was introduced in 2008</a>, is the second highest in the country at 61 per cent (Prince Edward Island has the highest support). Similarly, support for emissions trading is second highest in Québec, again just behind P.E.I., where a carbon market <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Houle2/publication/276289377_The_Political_Economy_of_California_and_Quebec's_Cap-and-Trade/links/5555f92508aeaaff3bf5ea49/The-Political-Economy-of-California-and-Quebecs-Cap-and-Trade.pdf">was implemented in 2013</a>.</p>
<h2>Even Conservative ridings want action</h2>
<p>We don’t find evidence of a backlash to carbon taxes or emissions trading — Canadians living in provinces with substantive climate policies continue to support them. Instead, we find substantial support for climate action in the ridings of Canadian politicians who have done the most to undermine Canada’s climate policy. </p>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s provincial riding matches up with the federal riding of Etobicoke North, where 62 per cent of the public supports emissions trading. In other words, Ford ignored the majority will of his own constituents when he acted to repeal Ontario’s policy last year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-new-climate-plan-is-far-from-conservative-108406">Ontario's new climate plan is far from conservative</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riding-level public opinion estimates for the Saskatchewan riding of Regina-Qu'Apelle, currently represented by Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same is true federally. In Scheer’s own riding of Regina-Qu'Appelle, support for carbon taxation is at 52 per cent. Only 41 per cent of Scheer’s own constituents oppose a carbon tax. He too is offside with the people he represents.</p>
<h2>The political risks of opposing climate reforms</h2>
<p>Our results emphasize how the media can sometimes misinterpret electoral mandates. In Ontario, Doug Ford promised to repeal the province’s emissions trading scheme — and won. But the former Conservative leader, Patrick Brown, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-pc-convention-1.3477623">supported</a> carbon pricing while enjoying a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4037303/ontario-pcs-election-poll/beta/">comfortable lead in the polls</a>.</p>
<p>There are lots of reasons why Canadians choose to change their government, but opposition to carbon pricing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1608659">hasn’t been one of them</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Climate science</a> is clear on the need to rapidly decrease greenhouse gas emissions to avert the most disastrous consequences of climate change. As a northern country, <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/impacts-adaptation/10029">climate impacts</a> in Canada are already larger than in other places. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-frequent-fires-could-dramatically-alter-boreal-forests-and-emit-more-carbon-122355">More frequent fires could dramatically alter boreal forests and emit more carbon</a>
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<p>Our research, which the public can explore, shows that Canadians everywhere — from the most Conservative to the most Liberal ridings — are united in understanding that climate change poses a major threat to the people and places they cherish. The election provides an opportunity for Canadians have a say in the future of climate policy in their country — and all Canadian politicians should take note. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matto Mildenberger has received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Environment Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erick Lachapelle receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). He is a researcher with EcoAnalytics. Funding for individual survey waves (between 2011-2018) was provided by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Ministère des Relations et de la Francophonie, EcoAnalytics, the Public Policy Forum, Smart Prosperity Institute, Canada 2020, l'Institut de l'énergie Trottier, and la Chaire d'études politiques et économiques américaines. </span></em></p>Climate change could take centre stage during Canada’s federal election.Matto Mildenberger, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa BarbaraErick Lachapelle, Associate professor, Département de science politique, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1212662019-07-31T11:57:04Z2019-07-31T11:57:04ZRemain Alliance – can it halt Brexit and beat Boris Johnson?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286418/original/file-20190731-186819-a8v9ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU2NDU5NTA3MiwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfNTMyODI1NjI3IiwiayI6InBob3RvLzUzMjgyNTYyNy9tZWRpdW0uanBnIiwibSI6MSwiZCI6InNodXR0ZXJzdG9jay1tZWRpYSJ9LCI5WHNzSUVJM3RtNVJ5N2xDdkhKMUtQRHBJK2ciXQ%2Fshutterstock_532825627.jpg&pi=33421636&m=532825627&src=nnQAZ4T0bz73r6sZhDL_Kw-1-45">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s by-election in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/lib-dems-quiet-bollocks-to-brexit-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection">Brecon and Radnorshire</a> will be the first formal test of the so-called Remain Alliance. The unusually short list of candidates in this contest is partly because parties such as the <a href="https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/17738072.brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-green-party-not-contesting-seat/">Green Party</a> and Plaid Cymru, have stood down in favour of the Liberal Democrats. Campaign visits have also been made by those who originally formed Change UK, such as former Conservatives MPs <a href="https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Anna Soubry</a> and <a href="https://order-order.com/2019/07/27/heidi-meets-the-rees-moggs-on-the-campaign-trail/">Heidi Allen</a>. </p>
<p>It is rare in British politics for parties to stand down in favour of their usual competitors. And while this isn’t the first occurrence, or the first initiative, the Brecon agreements could well lead to something more formal. A little earlier in the summer, former Change UK (now Independent Group for Change) leader Heidi Allen launched <a href="https://www.facebook.com/unitetoremain/">Unite to Remain</a>. The idea is for Remain-supporting parties to work together to maximise the chance of electoral, and therefore policy, success. This would include the use of a common title or strapline to make the point. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-boris-johnson-can-win-a-snap-election-and-what-the-others-can-do-to-stop-him-121058">How Boris Johnson can win a snap election – and what the others can do to stop him</a>
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<p>There have been attempts to achieve a common purpose in the past. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/england">2017 general election</a>, for example, saw the promotion of the so-called Progressive Alliance (of which more later). But what marks out the latest attempt is the move to <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/party-registration-applications/view-current-applications">register a name</a> and logo (Remain Alliance) with the Electoral Commission. Current electoral law means that ballot papers can only include registered names and logos (or the word “Independent”).</p>
<h2>Tribalism</h2>
<p>To understand whether or not the current initiative can succeed, it is worth looking at cross-party cooperation, or the lack of it, in the past.</p>
<p>British politics is usually very tribal. This tribalism has meant that past efforts at cooperation have generally been motivated by negative factors, such as a desire to defeat a particular party (usually the Conservatives). </p>
<p>But the nature of the electoral system also means that tactics could trump tribalism. In a <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/first-past-the-post/">first-past-the-post system</a>, which is used for UK parliamentary elections, a horse-race narrative often develops. It is in the interests of a challenger party to appear as the only participant with a chance to overtake the favourite and win. </p>
<p>This in turn means supporters of lower placed, unlikely-to-win parties are targeted to “lend” their votes to defeat a less-preferred option. This has given birth to idea that only certain parties are worth supporting.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-boris-johnson-draws-on-the-past-to-rule-in-the-present-with-a-little-help-from-myth-120863">How Boris Johnson draws on the past to rule in the present – with a little help from myth</a>
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<p>Resistance, however, can come from the candidates and activists of those lower-placed parties. While the Green Party did stand down in favour of the Liberal Democrats in the 2016 <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486">Richmond Park by-election</a> when the Lib-Dems successfully took the seat from Zac Goldsmith, for example, parts of the local Green Party felt very aggrieved and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/28/caroline-lucas-green-party-richmond-park-byelection-lib-dems">voiced their annoyance</a> quite publicly. This in turn means that cooperative arrangements are often rare. </p>
<h2>Who wins, and loses?</h2>
<p>It can be very difficult to negotiate cooperation, particularly when one party will feel it is losing out. Anyone who thinks this is easy needs to look further into the SDP-Liberal Alliance.</p>
<p>The SDP was formed in 1981 and almost immediately began working with the existing Liberal Party. The idea was that one of either party would contest each parliamentary seat. This was generally achieved, but only after tortuous negotiations which rather ruined the image of cooperation and which are well described by participants such as the then MP, now Lord, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fourth-Among-Equals-Autobiography-Rodgers/dp/1902301366">Bill Rogers</a> and the authors <a href="https://www.amazon.com/SDP-Birth-Death-Social-Democratic/dp/0198280505">Ivor Crewe and Anthony King</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, the Croydon North West by-election in 1981 was fought by the Liberal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/03/bill-pitt-obituary">Bill Pitt</a> – rather than by the leaders’ preferred option, Shirley Williams – because Pitt simply refused to budge. Pitt went on to win. </p>
<p>Of course, parties do not need to be working together explicitly for voters, or organisations, to urge tactical outcomes. While tribalism has a long history in UK politics, so too do attempts to persuade voters to make tactical decisions.</p>
<p>TV87, for example, referenced in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00992239">an article in Political Behaviour</a>, was a campaign set up to focus voters’ minds on the possibility of lending votes in the 1987 election. And it became common for publications and campaigns to produce lists of seats where incumbents were vulnerable to temporary tactics.</p>
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<span class="caption">Anna Soubry: leader of Independent Group for Change.</span>
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<p>The current initiative, which goes well beyond leaving decisions to voters alone, can perhaps best be judged against more recent projects. The 2017 general election saw the promotion of the so-called Progressive Alliance. The thinking was that Progressive parties (generally centre-left or left wing) could stand down for each other in seats where this might help defeat a Tory, or assist a vulnerable Progressive incumbent. The book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/All-Together-Now-Progressive-Alliance/dp/1785902865/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=All+Together+Now+Langford&qid=1564569471&s=books&sr=1-3">All Together Now</a> by Barry Langford lists 42 seats in which this happened, but it was not always successful and it was only really the Green party which played a full part.</p>
<h2>So can the Remain Alliance work?</h2>
<p>The Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result may provide part of an answer, although we need to remember that this has been a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/w28.stm">Lib-Dem seat in the past</a> and the party has been campaigning there for some time (in other words, the cooperation between parties may not be the crucial factor here).</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-wisdom-of-crowds-proves-effective-predictor-of-britains-chaotic-eu-departure-119906">Brexit: wisdom of crowds proves effective predictor of Britain's chaotic EU departure</a>
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<p>Perhaps more telling will be any negotiations ahead of the forthcoming <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/news/105609/sheffield-hallam-mp-jared-omara-set-resign-and-trigger-election">Sheffield Hallam</a> by-election as well as what happens when more than one party has a justifiable claim to stand.</p>
<p>The big issue, however, must be Labour’s role and how one can define a Remain party. Labour played no active part in the 2017 Progressive Alliance, so what would the Remain Alliance do if Labour was the clear challenger to the Conservatives, or Brexit party, in a tight contest? Only time will tell, but the answer hangs on whether or not Jeremy Corbyn ever comes out as an unequivocal supporter of either Leave or Remain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats and has seen plenty of election and by election campaigns up close.</span></em></p>Cooperation is far from easy in the furious tribalism of Westminster.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1179532019-05-29T15:10:10Z2019-05-29T15:10:10ZWhat Green surge could mean for the new European Parliament<p>European politics has been seriously shaken up by this month’s parliamentary election. The centre-left/centre-right coalition that has dominated European political proceedings can no longer command a majority in the European Parliament. Eurosceptic parties, meanwhile, made smaller gains than expected.</p>
<p>That has opened up an opportunity for Europe’s green parties, which made big gains and now hold 69 seats in the 751 seat chamber.</p>
<p>This historic showing means environmentalist parties could hold the balance of power. Green MEPs sit in a transnational political group called Greens/European Free Alliance, together with MEPs from regionalist parties including the UK’s Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru. By far the <a href="http://www.caneurope.org/docman/climate-energy-targets/3476-defenders-delayers-dinosaurs-ranking-of-eu-political-groups-and-national-parties-on-climate-change/file">strongest supporters</a> of climate and environmental action in the last parliament, the alliance will seek to leverage its burgeoning influence on key EU policies. It could also play an important role in choosing the EU’s new personnel – including the successor to European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.</p>
<h2>A greener president?</h2>
<p>Environmentalists will be thankful that Brexit has been delayed until (at least) October, because it means that UK MEPs will probably still be around to play a part in choosing the new European Commission. The UK Green party delivered a particularly strong result, taking seven seats, along with the Scottish Nationalist Party’s three and one for Plaid Cymru. As a result, the Greens also now have more say over upcoming votes for the European Parliament’s president, 14 <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/eu-affairs/20170608STO76914/how-parliament-is-run-president-vice-presidents-and-quaestors-infographic">vice-presidents</a> and 22 <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/parliamentary-committees.html">committee chairs</a> that lead legislative negotiations on all policy areas.</p>
<p>In the past MEPs have pushed for the Commission presidency to go to the lead candidate of the political group winning the most seats in the election, which would be the right-leaning European People’s Party’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46113924">Manfred Weber</a>. But many EU heads of state (notably Emmanuel Macron in France, Pedro Sanchez in Spain and MArk Rutte in the Netherlands) are unhappy with this approach and would like the Parliament to endorse someone else.</p>
<p>With no candidate able to command a majority by aligning with just one other party, political manoeuvring will be needed, in both the council and the parliament. With backing from the Green group, a strong challenge to Weber could be brought by a broad coalition between the centre-left and the centrist <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8e73e734-814d-11e9-9935-ad75bb96c849">Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe</a>. As potential kingmakers, expect the Greens to try to extract environmental promises from leading candidates. Weber has very poor credentials on this front. </p>
<h2>Greener agriculture and trade</h2>
<p>Once the new commission starts work in November, Green MEPs will have the opportunity to shape future EU policy. In the last European Parliament, the grand centre-left, centre-right coalition decided <a href="https://www.votewatch.eu/blog/ep2019-how-meps-made-decisions-during-these-5-years/">74% of votes</a>, leaving smaller groups at the fringes of power. With a more fragmented European Parliament, smaller groups will now be key to establishing a majority, and coalitions will be much more changeable.</p>
<p>Despite the Greens’ rise, they remain a relatively small group. Their influence will depend on their ability to reach compromises with other parties when necessary – and to know when to pick their battles. Based on their past activities and their <a href="https://europeangreens.eu/priorities-2019-what-european-greens-fight">manifesto</a>, two such likely red lines will be reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU’s trade policy.</p>
<p>During the last reform in 2013, the European Parliament weakened the CAP by making it <a href="http://capreform.eu/birdlife-cap-reform-is-dead/">easier for farmers to qualify for green subsidies</a> without actually changing their practices. More recently, the agriculture committee has supported a proposal to automatically label 40% of CAP spending as “climate expenditure”, writing what Green MEPs called a <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/opinion/why-the-new-cap-will-be-worse-for-the-climate-and-farmers/">“blank cheque” on climate change</a>. Meanwhile, the European Commission <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/28/european-commission-accused-of-deliberately-harming-climate-action?CMP=share_btn_tw">sat on a report</a> highlighting how little the CAP does for the climate for a year, quietly publishing it a day after the recent elections. This time around, we can expect the Green MEPs riding the resurgent climate wave to push for reform that puts delivery on climate change goals much higher up the agenda.</p>
<p>The Greens are also strong critics of EU trade policy. They have long <a href="https://www.greens-efa.eu/trade-policy/index.html">called for</a> more democratic scrutiny and public consultation by the European Parliament to make trade more environmentally sound. They have pushed for a greater emphasis on improved labour conditions and trade deals which do not undermine the EU’s environmental and emissions targets. We can expect Green MEPs to hold other political parties accountable for their climate change pledges – and to influence the environmental requirements in EU trade policy in the future.</p>
<p>Finally, as <a href="https://europeangreens.eu/priorities-2019-what-european-greens-fight">staunch defenders</a> of the rule of law and the right to asylum, the larger Green group will also hope to exert influence on the EU’s long-awaited revision to its <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/opinion/why-are-we-not-reforming-the-dublin-regulation-yet/">asylum system</a>, and on how parliament deals with attacks on the <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/interview/ska-keller-manfred-webers-openness-to-the-far-right-is-quite-crazy/">rule of law</a> in Hungary and Poland.</p>
<p>The Greens will be keen to influence affairs as much as they can before the UK leaves the EU – when it will lose nearly 20% of its MEPs. They will also still be reliant on how seriously other parties now take the union’s climate and environmental commitments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Viviane Gravey received funding from the ESRC's 'UK in a Changing Europe for the Brexit & Environment' network.</span></em></p>Green parties across Europe scored an all-time high in the European Parliament elections. Now, they’ll seek key reform on agriculture and trade – and could be kingmakers for Juncker’s replacement.Viviane Gravey, Lecturer in European Politics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1159702019-04-25T21:51:00Z2019-04-25T21:51:00ZThe Green Party wave could spread across Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273169/original/file-20190507-103085-2g9z6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C130%2C2932%2C1881&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Green Party's Paul Manly celebrates after voting results come in for the Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection on May 6, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There isn’t a bigger environmental politics story in the world right now than the extraordinary results by the Green Party in the recent elections in Canada. </p>
<p>First, there was last month’s outcome in Prince Edward Island. For some observers, the eight seats nabbed by Peter Bevan-Baker’s party were unsurprising. The <a href="https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pei-greens-hold-lead-governing-liberals-in-third/">Greens led</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/news/pei-election/green-party-maintains-edge-in-three-way-race-to-the-finish-302716/">in most</a> <a href="http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/0beb9a09-1c1d-415d-a8df-2d63b8ac99d4PEI%20April%2022%202019.pdf">pre-election polls</a>. Bevan-Baker has consistently been ranked the province’s most popular politician. </p>
<p>Don’t let these facts distract from the party’s singular achievement in becoming Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. Its P.E.I. breakthrough built on waves of recent Green Party wins across Canada. </p>
<p>And then the Green Party won again in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith federal byelection, where <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/green-party-bc-win-climate-issues-impact-1.5125696">Paul Manly received 37.1 per cent of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>The results foreshadow the party’s serious prospects at the federal level this fall.</p>
<h2>Why Green Party candidates face an uphill battle</h2>
<p>Parties like the Greens aren’t supposed to do well in countries like Canada, which has a first-past-the-post electoral system where a candidate only needs to receive more votes than any other to win their seat. </p>
<p>Many political scientists think countries with plurality systems can’t sustain more than two viable political parties. This idea is often described as <a href="http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095737871">Duverger’s law</a>, after the French sociologist who first investigated the links between plurality voting systems and political party number in the mid-20th century. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">P.E.I. Green Party Leader Peter Bevan-Baker and his wife Ann leave the polling station after voting on Apr. 23, 2019.</span>
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<p>The empirical credibility of Duverger’s law is <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/06/20/duvergers-law-is-dead/">up for debate</a>. Canada has never <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414099032007004">conformed well</a> to its predictions. For instance, many federal ridings are contested as three-way races between Conservatives, Liberals and New Democrats.</p>
<p>But political scientists are right to highlight the challenges that small parties face in plurality systems. Voters may support the party, but if they don’t think it can win, they’ll vote for a second-choice party that can. This is the much-discussed problem of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2006.02.003">strategic voting</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, Green Party candidates have a doubly difficult task. Like other candidates, they must persuade voters that their party will best serve Canadians. But unlike other candidates, they also have to persuade voters that enough other Canadians share this same set of preferences. </p>
<p>In political science, we call this a problem of “second-order beliefs.” First-order beliefs are the things individuals think. Second-order beliefs are the beliefs we hold about <em>other</em> people’s beliefs. </p>
<p>Most people underestimate how common pro-environment opinions are within their communities. Even people who personally want climate action <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000321">think the public is less green</a> than is actually the case. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Students gather on Parliament Hill protesting for action on climate change on Mar. 15, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Green Party’s political agenda is popular among Canadians. For example, we know that <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-canada/">a majority of Canadians in every riding</a> are concerned about climate change. Creating a shared social expectation that voting for the Green Party could elect Green politicians is a whole different story. Yet, the party’s remarkable ability to reshape Canadians’ second-order beliefs is behind this week’s breakthrough.</p>
<h2>How Greens have reshaped public expectations</h2>
<p>The earliest Green victories grew from the power of “star” candidates such as <a href="http://elizabethmaymp.ca/">Elizabeth May</a> and <a href="http://www.andrewweavermla.ca/">Andrew Weaver</a>. These individuals received outsized local media attention during election campaigns. And they were party leaders, which can make it easier for voters to coordinate their belief that a local candidate is viable. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Green Party leader Elizabeth May speaks to reporters after the tabling of the 2019 federal budget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Winning the role of the official Opposition in P.E.I. is a different story altogether. It required voters to believe that the party as a whole was electable, not simply a popular local leader. And this required a series of intensifying green waves across the country. </p>
<p>Beachhead elections by party leaders in British Columbia helped leaders in other provinces persuade voters that Green victories were possible. Suddenly, leaders like Bevan-Baker (P.E.I.), David Coon (New Brunswick) and Mike Schreiner (Ontario) won seats in their legislatures. Weaver, Coon and now Bevan-Baker used this position to grow their caucus in subsequent elections.</p>
<p>In turn, these victories will help federal Green candidates engage Canadians who want social and environmental change. </p>
<p>If P.E.I. can elect a Green opposition, voters may rethink their local Green candidate’s chances. The good showing in Nanaimo could set the stage for competitive Green candidates across the country this fall.</p>
<h2>A unique success at the global scale</h2>
<p>Each wave of Green success reshapes Canadians’ understanding of the possible distribution of electoral outcomes. Each win co-ordinates more and more sympathetic voters. It gives voters permission to express their true preferences instead of their strategic preferences. </p>
<p>Greens <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Green-Challenge-The-Development-of-Green-Parties-in-Europe-1st-Edition/Richardson-Rootes-Lambert/p/book/9780203976999">haven’t achieved</a> this type success in any other plurality system around the world.</p>
<p>Of course, Green Party candidates have done well in proportional representation systems — where seats are given out based on popular vote performance. For example, Green Party leader Winfried Kretschmann <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/winfried-kretschmann-germanys-first-green-minister-president/av-15848924">currently leads</a> the government in the German province of Baden-Württemberg, which has a system of mixed-member proportional representation. </p>
<p>By contrast, plurality systems have never seen anything like the performance by the P.E.I. Greens. Canadian Greens are writing a whole new story. Bit by bit, they are reshaping Canadians’ sense of what is electorally possible. They have been carving out space for themselves in a political landscape that is supposed to be barren for small parties. Green-minded voters around the world will be watching carefully amid the environmental crises that batter our planet today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matto Mildenberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Green Party breakthrough in Prince Edward Island and positive result in British Columbia foreshadows the party’s prospects at the federal level in the fall.Matto Mildenberger, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1146992019-04-02T14:34:28Z2019-04-02T14:34:28ZSmacking children: countries that refuse to ban practice are breaching international law<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267127/original/file-20190402-177196-1oy7vi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Safe and sound?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/little-asian-girl-close-her-face-445490305">all_about_people</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Should smacking a child be against the law? That’s the fierce debate reaching a vital stage in Scotland at present, where the parliament’s equalities commitee will announce on April 4 whether it will back legislation to make smacking a criminal offence. This follows a public consultation and will have a bearing on whether the <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/104602.aspx">Children (Equal Protection from Assault) Bill</a> becomes law, which would make Scotland the first jurisdiction in the UK to take this step. </p>
<p>The government-backed bill, which would remove the existing defence of “justifiable assault”, has divided the country in the past couple of years. The media <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-only-30-of-scots-back-smacking-ban-1-4814839">reports that</a> around two in three Scots are against the change, with protesters <a href="https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1436631-campaigners-against-smacking-ban-to-protest-at-parliament/">lining up</a> outside parliament for the committee’s final evidence-gathering session. While the likes of the Scottish Police Federation, Barnardo’s and the National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46069656">are backing</a> the bill, other institutions are against – <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/church-leaders-cite-bible-in-opposition-to-scotland-s-smacking-ban-1-4887662">notably</a> the Free Church of Scotland and some civil liberties groups. </p>
<p>Despite this opposition, the committee can only reach one conclusion. The bill, originally proposed by Green MSP Jim Finnie after he was petitioned by children’s rights groups, simply implements human rights obligations set out in international law. Countries like England are out of step and therefore in danger of being found in breach. </p>
<h2>Universal human rights</h2>
<p>Much of the controversy around the Scottish bill concerns the perceived criminalisation of parents and the infringement of their right to punish their child as they see fit. I’m afraid that there is no such right under human rights law. The relevant legal right is to not be assaulted – and as the Scottish bill spells out in its name, it would extend to children the same basic right that adults enjoy. </p>
<p>This right to equal treatment has been outlined in several human rights documents over the last 70 years. The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/index.html">Universal Declaration on Human Rights</a>, adopted in 1948, sets out rights aimed at recognising “the inherent dignity and inalienable rights of all members of the human family”. This is reinforced within the <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/Convention_ENG.pdf">European Convention on Human Rights</a> and the <a href="https://downloads.unicef.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/UNCRC_united_nations_convention_on_the_rights_of_the_child.pdf?_ga=2.260917893.942988292.1553685890-199158491.1553685890">United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child</a>, which recognises that “by reasons of physical and mental immaturity”, children require “special safeguards and care, including appropriate legal protection” while under the age of 18. </p>
<p>The UN convention, which the UK <a href="http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/research/ratification-greatbritain.html">has ratified</a>, does recognise that parents have a right to ensure that the rights of their children can be realised. But this does not mean they can punish them with violence: article 19 clearly states that children should be protected from all forms of physical or mental violence. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/library/general-comment-no-8-2006-right-child-protection-corporal-punishment-and-other-cruel-or">UN General Comment</a> on the rights of children to freedom from all forms of violence states that “legislative as well as other measures are required to fulfil states’ obligations to protect children from all forms of violence”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267106/original/file-20190402-177175-ug5exf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On a beach in north-east Scotland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aberdeen-scotland-may-21-2018-child-1335955379">Viktoska</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scotland’s current “justifiable assault” defence therefore contravenes children’s human rights. Quite frankly the law must be changed to ensure compliance, both in Scotland but also across the UK. The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/documents/joint-committees/human-rights/CAU%21_submission_to_JCHR.pdf">has consistently</a> criticised the UK government for its failure here. In England, the equivalent defence is known as “reasonable chastisement”. </p>
<p>For the avoidance of doubt, human rights do not depend on public opinion; they exist to help shape opinion. This is why there is no basis for arguing that the proposed change in law should not be made until there is a change in public attitudes. </p>
<h2>The international picture</h2>
<p>The UK is of course lagging behind many other countries over smacking. Sweden banned it first in 1979, over ten years before the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child was adopted in 1990. It is <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:vMoneM57gUoJ:https://wgntv.com/2018/03/13/these-are-the-countries-where-spanking-is-illegal/+&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=safari">now banned</a> in 58 countries, <a href="http://endcorporalpunishment.org/wp-content/uploads/global/Global-report-2018-spreads.pdf">rising steadily</a> from 11 in 2000 and 34 in 2012. These include Germany, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Israel, Brazil and, very recently, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-smacking-ban-parents-children-corporal-punishment-a8661191.html">France</a>, as well as all the Scandinavian countries. Other major countries which have not followed suit include the US, Canada, Mexico, Italy, Australia and Japan. </p>
<p>The Scottish government <a href="https://www.snp.org/nicola-sturgeons-speech-to-the-snp-conference-2017/">frequently refers</a> to its desire for Scotland to be the best place in the world to grow up, though this will seem like empty rhetoric if the country does not ban smacking. It would also mean that Wales would have a better claim here: not only has the Welsh assembly been making moves to incorporate the UN convention into domestic legislation, it has <a href="http://senedd.assembly.wales/mgIssueHistoryHome.aspx?IId=24674">just published</a> the Children (Abolition of Defence of Reasonable Punishment) (Wales) Bill. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267107/original/file-20190402-177171-1uxd8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The former first lady.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/milan-italy-july-19-2016-eleanor-1019163514">spatuletail</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet the Scottish parliament’s equalities committee is largely supportive of children’s rights, and led by the ruling SNP’s Ruth Maguire, so it is hoped that Scotland will make domestic law comply with the law on human rights. To be clear, the focus here is not on criminalising parents so much as protecting children. Sending a consistent message to children that the rights that they are taught in school can actually be realised wherever they are in society is simple but vital. In the <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/76455-where-after-all-do-universal-human-rights-begin-in-small">famous words of</a> Eleanor Roosevelt, who led the drafting of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Where, after all, do universal human rights begin? In small places, close to home … where every man, woman and child seeks equal justice, equal opportunity, equal dignity without discrimination … unless these rights have meaning there, they have little meaning anywhere.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy Kirk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scotland is in the late stages of deciding whether to become the first country in UK to outlaw all corporal punishment against children.Tracy Kirk, Law Lecturer, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791692017-06-08T22:23:31Z2017-06-08T22:23:31ZUK election: hung parliament casts doubt over Theresa May’s future<p><em>As the results continue to come in, it appears Theresa May’s snap election gamble has backfired. A hung parliament looks on the cards. Theresa May’s leadership is in grave doubt. The shape of the next government remains unclear. Experts react to the news.</em></p>
<p><strong>Stuart Wilks-Heeg, head of politics, University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>Theresa May is in deep, deep trouble. We know why she called the election; she wanted a bigger majority and a strong mandate ahead of the Brexit negotiations. At the time, it looked like she couldn’t fail, and now it seems that she has failed spectacularly. The campaign has fatally undermined her leadership, and the one thing that could have saved her – if she came through with a strong majority for the Conservative party – hasn’t happened. I think she is finished politically – whether she resigns, or is pushed out by her own party remains to be seen. </p>
<p><strong>Michael Kitson, University Senior Lecturer in International Macroeconomics, University of Cambridge</strong></p>
<p>The election result will bring economic uncertainty and instability not strength and stability. Many will focus on the short-term froth of falls in the pound and in stock markets but of greater concern are the significant long-term problems facing the UK economy. </p>
<p>Brexit is the most pressing issue: a common refrain was that an increased majority would provide Theresa May with more bargaining power over the terms of withdrawal. Well that cunning plan has gone down the drain. If the Conservatives form a minority government, the prime minister (whoever that may be) will have to balance the demands of fervent Brexit hardliners on their backbenches while confronted with an emboldened opposition. </p>
<p>As it stands, there is no coherent plan for Brexit, a failure often justified under the convenient veil of “not showing one’s hand”. Of additional concern is that there is an absence of a “long-term economic plan” – a soundbite that left the government with George Osborne. The economic strategy of the Conservatives is at best inchoate and, at worst, incoherent. It is a mixture of austerity-lite combined with an ill-defined industrial policy that will do little to increase productivity in the economy. We must wait to see if a new economic strategy emerges but a minority government is more likely to expend energy on short-term survival rather than planning for growth. </p>
<p><strong>Robin Pettit, senior lecturer in comparative politics, Kingston University</strong></p>
<p>Some big names went tonight. Amber Rudd survived in Hastings and Rye, but only just, serving as an indication of the kind of night the Conservatives have had. Former SNP leader Alex Salmond was ousted, as was former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg – perhaps in a delayed backlash by young voters against tuition fees. There are some parallels to be drawn here. These high-profile losses suggest that both parties campaigned on issues which were largely felt to be settled: the SNP on a second Scottish independence referendum, and the Liberal Democrats on a second EU referendum, once a deal had been negotiated – neither of which the British people particularly wanted. Rather, there seems to be an acceptance of Brexit more generally – just not of Theresa May’s version. </p>
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<h2>Labour</h2>
<p><strong>Richard Murphy, professor of practice in international political economy, City, University of London</strong></p>
<p>Labour has had an exceptional night. Many will be feeling euphoric. But the reality is that it has not won and it seems incredibly unlikely that it could put together any form of Progressive Alliance. With a hung parliament on the cards it is almost certain that the next election campaign has already begun. The battle for a majority is now underway. To achieve this Labour has three tasks to concentrate on.</p>
<p>The first is to present a coherent Brexit plan. The second is to end its infighting and build cohesion behind an agreed policy platform. Third, it has to shatter the magic money tree myth by getting people to understand that its macroeconomic policy reflects <a href="https://theconversation.com/jeremy-corbyn-and-the-economics-of-the-real-world-47314">the way the world really works</a>.</p>
<p>Labour has done well. But in a few months it may have to do even better to get into government. And to everyone’s surprise that is now politically and economically plausible. </p>
<p><strong>Ben Williams, tutor in politics and political theory, University of Salford</strong></p>
<p>The Tories had estimated that the vast bulk of the collapsing UKIP vote would go to them in this election, particularly in the industrial north. Some claimed the party had <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2017-06-08/joe-pike-theresa-mays-yorkshire-visits-looked-to-have-been-for-nothing/">adopted</a> an “M62 strategy” and sought to gain multiple parliamentary gains along the corridor of this motorway spanning across Lancashire and Yorkshire. But that doesn’t seem to have happened and a whole range of key target seats – such as Chester, Halifax and Darlington – that the Conservatives hoped to gain have stayed Labour red as a result. Even the very marginal seat of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000543">Barrow</a>, held by arch-Corbyn critic John Woodcock, has remained Labour against the odds.</p>
<p>But while Labour has performed as strongly as ever in its inner-city northern city strongholds such as Manchester, Sheffield and Liverpool, it was seen as vulnerable in the northern suburbs and smaller towns. However, its vote has proved to be resilient, fuelled by a higher national turnout and an influx of younger voters, as has been evident across the country.</p>
<p>Labour has even gone on to make some surprising northern gains such as the long-shot of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000645">Colne Valley</a> in Yorkshire, as well as other seats that the Conservatives were expected to hold fairly comfortably, such as Bury North, Warrington South and Weaver Vale. But such gains were somewhat sporadic, and Labour failed to gain various other northern seats that the party held prior to 2010 and which would be required to form a majority Labour government, while also failing to regain the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000647">Copeland</a> seat it lost in a by-election in early 2017.</p>
<p>The results in the north, while not particularly brilliant for Labour, were crucially better than expected. This in itself indicates some degree of appeal and durability to Corbynism outside of its perceived inner-city and London strongholds.</p>
<h2>Brexit</h2>
<p><strong>Kathryn Simpson, lecturer in politics and public services, Manchester Metropolitan University</strong></p>
<p>Dubbed the Brexit election, this general election provided very little clarity and specific details on what Brexit negotiations would be and what a post-Brexit UK would look like. And the electorate has recognised this.</p>
<p>There will not be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-and-stable-leadership-inside-the-conservatives-election-slogan-77121">strong and stable government</a> by the time Brexit negotations begin on June 19. That will have a robust impact on Brexit.</p>
<p>The Brexit clock started ticking when May triggered Article 50 in March. Taking six weeks out of the <a href="https://blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/03/24/an-article-50-timeline-infographic/">two-year Brexit negotiating window</a> to conduct a general election was risky, as it has eaten into the time available to deal with the EU. Now, with so much uncertainty about how the next government will be formed, more time will inevitably be lost.</p>
<p><strong>Daniel Fitzpatrick, lecturer in politics, Aston University</strong></p>
<p>In an election called to secure a clear mandate for Brexit, the result is no obvious mandate for any party. The mandate for the Conservative version of hard Brexit is in tatters, while a second independence referendum in Scotland is moot given the swing away from the Scottish National Party towards the unionist parties – the Scottish Conservatives particularly.</p>
<p>Political commentators are fond of naming elections, as a shorthand for the dominant issue of the day: the 1983 “Falklands” election, the 2005 “Iraq” election. Psephologists will tell you that such retrospective rationalisations do little to convey the complexities of voting behaviour.</p>
<p>But, rarely has an election been characterised so one-dimensionally before the campaign even begun. Although labelled the “Brexit election” by the Conservatives, Theresa May did little to establish that narrative beyond her supposed leadership credentials, which, to put it mildly, faltered. It figured surprisingly little in the election campaigns of the other mainstream parties, except for the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>Taking a largely ambivalent stance on EU, Labour has gained Remain seats in London and the South East and retained and won back marginal Leave seats in the North. It looks like neither the so-called Leave or Remain vote offers a reliable indication of the new electoral map. It has figured in certain parts of the country, but nowhere near as decisive as imagined. </p>
<h2>Scotland</h2>
<p><strong>William McDougall, lecturer in politics, Glasgow Caledonian University</strong></p>
<p>The Conservative party are performing much better in Scotland than anywhere else. In that sense, Scotland is again having its own election, different from the rest of the UK. This is probably due to the fact that the Scottish Conservatives have been able to run a separate campaign, disassociating themselves from Theresa May and the poor campaign the Conservatives have run in the UK as a whole. They’ve been able to focus on an anti-independence, anti-SNP message. But that does mean that it’s less clear what else the Scottish Conservative MPs stand for. Once they start voting in Westminster, we’ll have a clearer idea of where they stand on other policies.</p>
<p>The Scottish Conservatives could now play quite a vital role in the Westminster parliament. It could make all the difference for May as she attempts to hold on to power. It’s ironic: people often say that Scotland never gets to influence UK election results, and now it could be the Scottish Conservatives who keep the party on top. It puts their leader Ruth Davidson in a strong position within the Conservative party, although it might not have an impact on the direction of Brexit: the new Scottish Conservative MPs are likely to behave themselves in that respect.</p>
<h2>Liberal Democrats</h2>
<p><strong>Matthew Cole, teaching fellow, department of history, University of Birmingham</strong></p>
<p>The immediate evidence is that the two-party system has returned with a vengeance after a 30-year slumber, sweeping away UKIP and penning the Lib Dems back in their 2015 electoral ghetto.</p>
<p>Already three of the eight seats they won in 2015 have been lost, all in the north of England. Party leader Tim Farron was made to endure a recount in his own constituency, and it looks likely that the party’s overall share of the national vote has fallen back from its dismal 2015 low of 7.7%. The hope of reaching out to the 48% of Britons who voted to remain in the EU became a bitterly ironic dream, spiked by the triggering of Article 50 before the campaign; the plan for a second referendum has been marginalised politically.</p>
<p>There are silver linings to the cloud, however. The Liberal Democrats have established a core of representation in the capital and in Scotland, adding experienced and media-friendly figures to their enlarged parliamentary team – notably Vince Cable. Tim Farron can also take some credit for challenging and undermining the harsh version of Brexit which failed to secure Theresa May’s ambitions for a landslide majority. And the hung parliament which is emerging may be a productive environment in which to dilute that plan. </p>
<p>Compared to their highest hopes this election outcome must be disheartening for Liberal Democrat campaigners; but set against their worst fears it may in due course come to look like a stage in a process of consolidation.</p>
<h2>Northern Ireland</h2>
<p><strong>John Garry, professor of political behaviour, Queen’s University Belfast</strong></p>
<p>It seems that the two big parties have swept away all the others in Northern Ireland. Apart from an independent unionist candidate retaining her seat, the hardline unionist party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), have had a great electoral night at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party, which has lost its two seats. On the nationalist side, it has been a dreadful election for the moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which has lost its three seats. The more hardline nationalists, Sinn Fein, have dramatically increased their support. </p>
<p>With the cross-party Alliance also winning no seats, the overall picture emerging is of a more polarised politics in Northern Ireland. This bodes ill for the kind of compromise and conciliation that will be needed to re-establish a power-sharing government – a process that was effectively put on hold once Theresa May called this snap Westminster election.</p>
<p>It is ironic that both the DUP and Sinn Fein, which are finding it difficult to form a government in Northern Ireland, were regarded as potentially key players in the election night commentary on government formation at Westminster. Would Sinn Fein change its policy of abstention and possibly prop up a Jeremy Corbyn premiership? “No”, was <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3758550/gerry-adams-congratulates-jeremy-corbyn-after-shock-election-2017-exit-poll-result/">the quick response</a> from the Sinn Fein leadership. It’s more plausible that the DUP could play a crucial role in sustaining a Conservative administration.</p>
<p><strong>Neil Matthews, lecturer in British politics, University of Bristol</strong></p>
<p>This election has arguably produced the best of results for Northern Ireland. The granite-hard Brexit promised by Theresa May – a scenario which would have disproportionately severe consequences for the region – has been effectively shelved.</p>
<p>In the weeks before the election both the European Union and UK government were at pains to stress the importance of Northern Ireland to the Brexit negotiations, declaring it a “first order” issue. Both agreed that any deal should see as “soft” a border as possible between Northern Ireland (i.e. the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (i.e. the EU). The hard gains of the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement were not to be trampled on by Brexit. </p>
<p>Those hard gains were, however, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-northern-ireland-peace-process-george-mitchell-stormont-good-friday-agreement-a7600086.html">widely seen to be under threat</a> from May’s Brexit plan. If she returned from Brussels without a deal – a scenario countenanced by the Conservative manifesto – then any bespoke arrangement for Northern Ireland would have inevitably been chucked out with the bath water. With this election result a Brexit deal that is sympathetic to the unique needs of Northern Ireland remains very much alive.</p>
<p>And, of course, Northern Ireland’s hand in the Brexit negotiations is likely to be strengthened further by the makeup of the next parliament and the precarious position of the Conservative government. Short of a majority, the government could well strike-up an arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Those ten DUP MPs – a team of canny and battle-hardened negotiators – would inevitably look to extract a great deal from the Tories in return for their support. Among other things, this shopping list would include a “frictionless” Irish border, as well as no internal UK border (between Britain and Northern Ireland). </p>
<p>The DUP’s election campaign promise was “to make sure Northern Ireland gets the best Brexit deal”. This result goes some way to ensuring that. </p>
<h2>Wales</h2>
<p><strong>Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales, University of Cardiff</strong></p>
<p>Labour has cemented <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-live-updates-13150349">its grip on Wales</a> with three important gains. Voters mainly opted for one of the two main UK-wide parties, with the combined total vote share for Labour and the Conservatives at 84% – the highest since the 1960s.</p>
<p>Labour’s share of the vote increased by 12% points, making something of a mockery of the very early polls, which suggested that the Conservatives would win Wales for the first time since the middle of the 19th century. The Conservative vote was up 6%, but it is seats that count and the party lost three.</p>
<p>Labour still lost the election overall, for the the third time in a row, but once again it won Wales convincingly, underlining the strength of its reach and the depth of its dominance. It was an unmitigated disaster for the Liberal Democrats, which lost their single seat in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000064">Ceredigon</a> to Plaid Cymru. The Liberal Democrats now have no representation in Wales for the first time in the party’s history.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"873056335369093121"}"></div></p>
<p>Plaid Cyrmu’s overall vote share was down 2% points to 10%, but with four MPs it gained its highest ever number of seats. Despite disappointments in the southern valleys and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000041">Ynys Mon</a>, Leanne Wood’s leadership of the party was probably saved by the bell with the Ceredigon result.</p>
<h2>The Midlands</h2>
<p><strong>Parveen Akhtar, lecturer in political science, Aston University</strong></p>
<p>The Tories had a rough night in the Midlands, and they won’t have been expecting one. Their chances looked very different for them in May, when former John Lewis boss <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/former-john-lewis-boss-wins-west-midlands-mayoralty-andy-street">Andy Street</a>, won a stunning victory against Labour’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/sion-simon-west-midlands-mayoral-candidate-seeks-to-tell-a-different-labour-story">Siôn Simon</a> to become West Midlands Mayor. On a low turnout of 26.7%, Street won 50.4% against Simon’s 49.6% – hardly a thrashing, but a stunning win nonetheless in traditional Labour territory. </p>
<p>Perfectly logical then that Conservatives should target key marginal seats in Birmingham, birthplace of Nick Timothy, one of the two brains that make up <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/theresa-mays-poor-campaign-has-exposed-her-dependence-on?utm_term=.ehr9B8l7J#.yu0WoPL63">Team May</a>. But in the end, as across the country, the Conservatives’ efforts simply didn’t pay off.</p>
<p>Labour held on to key seats in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000560">Edgbaston</a>, <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-results-northfield-2017-13057432">Northfield</a> and <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-2017-erdington-results-13053464">Erdington</a>. In Edgbaston, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40212954">Preet Gill</a> made history by becoming the first female Sikh MP in the UK; she won 24,124 votes, increasing Labour’s 2015 majority by 10%. She takes over from pro-Brexit Labour MP Gisela Stuart, who had held the seat since 1997.</p>
<p>Other big stories from the Midlands include Labour’s capture of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-40211171">Warwick and Leamington</a>, a bellweather constituency where Matt Western won 25,227 votes – a 1,206 majority over the Conservative candidate. The Tories can draw some small consolation from unseating Labour in <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-results-walsall-north-13066378">Walsall North</a>; they also retained <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000868">Nuneaton</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000974">Stoke-on-Trent South</a> and comfortably sailed to victory in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000931">Solihull</a>. But as per the national results, tonight was clearly Labour’s night.</p>
<h2>Vote share</h2>
<p><strong>James Tilley, professor of politics, University of Oxford</strong></p>
<p>Poll leads for the Conservatives ahead of the election varied enormously. Much of the variation, although by no means all, has been due to the way that the pollsters predicted people’s likelihood to turnout.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">How did you vote?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oscepa/17233690119/sizes/l">oscepa/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The polls with the highest leads for the Conservatives tended to predict low voting rates among younger people and people in working class jobs. We’ve seen this pattern of non-voting for the past few elections, arguably because these groups had become disillusioned with Labour. The polls with the lowest leads for the Conservatives assumed that these two groups would turn out to vote at higher levels than in 2015. The argument here was that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is a more attractive proposition to more economically left-wing people. So who was right? </p>
<p>Obviously, we won’t know the actual result and we won’t know exact rates of turnout by age and social class for several months until the British Election Survey reports back, but the exit poll does seem to suggest that young people have turned out in larger numbers than at the past few elections.</p>
<p>Generally campaigns are not thought to matter enormously, but this may be the exception that proves the rule. Labour has evidently either converted some people who said they would vote Conservative a few months ago, or mobilised people who said that they wouldn’t vote.</p>
<p>It’s likely that both conversion and particularly mobilisation have been higher among younger voters. While it’s not a successful night for Labour in that it is still predicted to have 50 fewer seats than the Conservatives, at this stage it appears a clear success for the Labour campaign strategy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Tilley receives funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Williams a member of the association of Teachers and Lecturers, the Higher Education Academy and the Labour Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Fitzpatrick receives funding from the ESRC and EPSRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Garry is the Principal Investigator on the ESRC funded ‘Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016’ and the Principal Investigator on the ESRC funded ‘The UK/Ireland Border and the Stability of Peace and Security in Northern Ireland’ study focusing on Brexit and Northern Ireland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura McAllister is a board member of the Institute for Welsh Affairs think tank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kitson has received funding from BIS, HEFCE, EPSRC, ESRC, AHRC, NERC and the MRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar is the recipient of British Academy and Economic and Social Research Council research grants.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Murphy owns and directs Tax Research LLP. He has been funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Friends' Provident Foundation, Joffe Trust and others. He has worked for a number of UK trade unions and has been an economic advisor to Jeremy Corbyn.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Pettitt is a member of the Women's Equality Party, and a member of Loughton Residents Association. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Wilks-Heeg has previously received funding for research or consultancy on electoral matters from the UK Electoral Commission and the UK Cabinet Office.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Simpson, Matthew Cole, Neil Matthews, and William McDougall do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rolling coverage of the general election results from expert academics.James Tilley, Professor of Politics, University of OxfordBen Williams, Tutor in Politics and Political Theory, University of SalfordDaniel Fitzpatrick, Lecturer in Politics, Aston UniversityJohn Garry, School of History, Anthropology, Philosohy and Politics, Queen's University BelfastKathryn Simpson, Lecturer in Politics and Public Services, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLaura McAllister, Professor of Public Policy, Cardiff UniversityMatthew Cole, Teaching Fellow, Department of History, University of BirminghamMichael Kitson, University Senior Lecturer in International Macroeconomics, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolNeil Matthews, Lecturer in British Politics, University of BristolParveen Akhtar, Lecturer in Political Science, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston UniversityRichard Murphy, Professor of Practice in International Political Economy, City, University of LondonRobin Pettitt, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics, Kingston UniversityStuart Wilks-Heeg, Head of Politics, University of LiverpoolWilliam McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/786432017-06-06T08:52:50Z2017-06-06T08:52:50ZDrowned out by the Corbyn effect, the Green Party struggles to cut through<p>The 2017 election could have been a serious opening for the Greens. The party fought the last election on a strong anti-austerity and redistributionist platform to the left of the Labour party, and established itself as a credible (if small) electoral force: its membership <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/21/green-surge-party-that-will-decide-election">swelled to 75,000</a>, the party quadrupled its 2010 vote count to 1.2m, kept a record 131 deposits, came second in four seats, and saw Caroline Lucas re-elected as its sole MP.</p>
<p>It seemed the stage was set for a bright Green future. But things have changed – and not for the better. Labour’s post-2015 shift to the left under Jeremy Corbyn and his personal popularity among young voters seems to have directly eaten into the Greens’ support. Far from building on their hard-won gains, <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/">polls suggest</a> that while Lucas is expected to hold her seat in Brighton Pavilion, the party may do significantly worse this time. </p>
<p>This is not for want of trying. The Greens made several strategic adjustments to prepare for the next election. Most conspicuously, they returned to their old <a href="https://theconversation.com/caroline-lucas-and-jonathan-bartley-share-green-party-leadership-and-an-eye-for-a-fruitful-alliance-64654">shared leadership structure</a>, meaning Lucas – the party’s most prominent and effective media performer – could be freed up to be the face of the party while <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/people/leaders-of-green-party.html">Jonathan Bartley</a> played a lower-profile supporting role. This tactic has proved effective in the campaign. Lucas was widely judged a success in the televised leadership debates, and has consistently performed well in her other media appearances. But British elections and campaigns are tough for small parties, and when <a href="http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/independent-sunday-mirror-june-2017-voting-intention-and-political-poll/">ComRes asked respondents their opinion of her</a> just before the election, 62% had no opinion. Just 15% rated her favourably, against 23% unfavourably.</p>
<p>Strategically, the Greens have <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/progressive-alliance-election-2017-tories-worried-say-campaigners-a7737021.html">enthusiastically promoted</a> the idea of a “progressive alliance”. They <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/05/13/greens-announce-final-candidate-numbers/">unilaterally announced</a> they would not stand against at least 22 “progressive” candidates, meaning they’re running more than 100 fewer candidates than they did in 2015. But Labour did not reciprocate, even though the Greens’ gesture might well benefit many of its own candidates in marginal constituencies. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, were only prepared to stand aside for the Greens in Lucas’s south coast bailiwick – declining to help actually add any seats to the party’s tally. </p>
<h2>True colours</h2>
<p>In response to the rise of the “Corbyn effect”, the Greens’ <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/green-guarantee/">2017 manifesto</a> departs radically from <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/manifesto/Green_Party_2015_General_Election_Manifesto_Searchable.pdf">the one they published in 2015</a>, an uncompromising 86-page tome of left-wing “tax-and-spend” proposals. This year the manifesto runs to a more digestible 26 pages; although it still includes a tranche of egalitarian, redistributionist proposals, it mostly sticks to more traditional territory by emphasising environmental and energy policies, democratic reforms and policies aimed at younger voters. </p>
<p>The Greens clearly see environmental policy as a chance to differentiate themselves from Labour. Despite <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/labour-manifesto-2017.pdf">promises</a> to ban fracking, introduce a Clean Air Act and ensure that 60% of energy comes from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030, the Labour manifesto says very little about the environment, and makes far fewer pledges than the Greens.</p>
<p>But there’s stiffer competition elsewhere. The Liberal Democrats’ <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/348615937/Liberal-Democrat-Manifesto-2017-Change-Britain-s-Future#from_embed">manifesto</a> is almost as ambitious as the Greens’ on environmental issues, with a long shopping list of promises: a target of zero new greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, a diesel scrappage scheme, and a significant re-balancing of farming subsidies towards environmental stewardship. </p>
<p>Still, the Greens really do own the environment as a policy issue: <a href="http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-30th-may-2017/">one recent poll</a> reports 51% of respondents identifying the Greens as the party best able to address environmental issues, far ahead of Labour (19%), the Liberal Democrats (9%) and the Conservatives (5%). The problem is that the environment just isn’t top of voters’ lists.</p>
<h2>Overlooked</h2>
<p>Despite the threat of Brexit, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/31/uk-government-sued-for-third-time-over-illegal-air-pollution-from-diesels">air pollution crisis</a> and Donald Trump’s decision to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40127326">withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement</a>, <a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/imdk9bjaff/TimesResults_170531_VI_Trackers_W.pdf">polls</a> show that only 5-7% of people identify the environment as one of the most important issues facing the country in the election – which means it doesn’t even make one of the top ten issues.</p>
<p>This will deeply frustrate the Green leadership, for whom Brexit could have been a major strategic opening. The EU has <a href="http://environmenteuref.blogspot.co.uk/p/the-report.html">significantly shaped British environmental policy</a> over the years, and as the recent <a href="http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/greeneruk_hustings.php">Greener UK Hustings</a> demonstrated, no one is certain what British environmental governance will look like once the Brexit process is complete. Many are deeply concerned that EU-derived green policies could even be <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/great-repeal-bill-environment-theresa-may-conservation-climate-change-wildlife-protection-wwf-a7658196.html">dismantled wholesale</a>.</p>
<p>The larger parties have all tried to reassure the public that environmental laws will not be swept away or weakened, but only the Greens use their manifesto to promise unequivocally to retain or enhance “all existing environmental laws”. That’s all very well, but it isn’t enough to shift the Brexit debate to a stage where the party can play a major role.</p>
<p>The party looks to be in for a disappointing election night. Lucas should be re-elected, but the Greens will struggle to make an impression anywhere else; for all their smart moves, they’re currently polling at around 2% nationally, putting them behind even UKIP. Crowded out by Labour’s leftward shift while the public tunes out on environmental issues, the Greens look set to be marginalised for some time yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Carter is funded by 'UK in a Changing Europe' to investigate the impact of Brexit on UK environmental policy and politics. He is a member of Friends of the Earth and WWF.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fay Farstad is funded by 'UK in a Changing Europe' to investigate the impact of Brexit on UK environmental policy and politics.</span></em></p>Despite their clever repackaging and repositioning, the Greens face a disappointing election night – and their biggest problem isn’t going away.Neil Carter, Professor in Politics, University of YorkFay Farstad, Associate Lecturer, Environment Department, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/786462017-05-31T21:47:36Z2017-05-31T21:47:36ZMissing May: she was damned if she did and damned if she didn’t join the debate<p>Jeremy Corbyn’s late decision to participate in the BBC’s election debate injected some interest and potential excitement into an event that had risked being ignored.</p>
<p>With the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-gain-tory-victory-theresa-may-general-election-8-june-yougov-opinium-polls-a7709961.html">polls narrowing</a> in Labour’s favour and with the party leader having performed well in the campaign so far, he hoped to maintain the momentum and increase pressure on the Conservatives. Despite speculation throughout the day about the intentions of Theresa May, the prime minister stuck with her original decision to stay away and send the home secretary, Amber Rudd, to represent the Conservatives in her place. Corbyn and Rudd also faced the representatives of the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP and Plaid Cymru in the debate.</p>
<p>The six questions put to the politicians by the invited audience were fairly predictable, covering living conditions, Brexit and immigration, public finances, national security, climate change and leadership. There were no real surprises, with Corbyn and other left-leaning politicians – Caroline Lucas of the Greens, Angus Robertson of the SNP and Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru, as well as Tim Farron of the Liberal Democrats – repeatedly condemning the government for its cuts to welfare and public services.</p>
<p>Paul Nuttall of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) came under frequent attack from other leaders, while making his party’s stock points on Brexit, the necessity of immigration controls, and terrorism.</p>
<p>Rudd generally found herself in the position of defending the government’s record, although she also launched a number of attacks on Corbyn, particularly over what she called his “fantasy economics” and his votes against anti-terror laws. Corbyn came under occasional attack from Nuttall on terrorism. Pressed by the moderator, Mishal Husain, Corbyn also stumbled in defining what he meant by a “fair” immigration system.</p>
<p>Corbyn didn’t make the most of his late entry into the debate, although he didn’t make any obvious gaffes either. Of the smaller parties’ leaders, Lucas performed best, setting out a clear liberal-progressive vision of a fairer society, based on freedom of movement, opposition to Trident, and combating climate change. But it will probably have little effect, as the Greens are leaking votes to Labour, which now appears to be attracting the bulk of the anti-Conservative vote in England and Wales.</p>
<p>Was May right not to turn up? She received inevitable and trenchant criticism from the other leaders, particularly from Farron at the end, although not so much from Corbyn. That was perhaps surprising given the fanfare that surrounded Corbyn’s late decision to take part. He might have been expected to make more of May’s weakness in staying away.</p>
<p>In reality, May was damned if she did and damned if she didn’t. By not taking part, she was accused of running scared from the voters. But if she had turned up, she could have been accused of dancing to Corbyn’s tune, being seen to follow his lead in participating rather than following her own judgement. It would have been mocked as another u-turn.</p>
<p>As it was, the format of the debate would not have played to May’s strengths. She would have been angrily assailed by the other leaders and found herself having to shout to make herself heard or completely drowned out. She doesn’t have the type of combativeness in debate that Rudd possesses and used to some effect here. All in all, despite some embarrassing barbs about her non-appearance, May was probably better off sticking with her original decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>She faced criticism for not taking part in the BBC head-to-head, but the PM would have struggled had she done another late U-turn.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/766232017-04-26T12:30:58Z2017-04-26T12:30:58ZWhy a progressive alliance just doesn’t work in British politics<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/uk-election-2017-37907">election</a> campaign is underway, but with the Conservatives <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/conservatives-open-biggest-lead-labour-nine-years-new-poll-shows/">20 points ahead</a> of Labour, things are already looking grim for those on the left of British politics. Labour’s prospects of winning outright look hopeless. Attention is turning towards an idea that has been repeatedly proposed in recent years – a “progressive alliance” of anti-Conservative parties.</p>
<p>The idea is beguilingly simple. The centre-left vote is split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru. Under the UK’s <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/first-past-the-post">winner-takes-all electoral system</a>, those divisions enable the Conservatives to win seats they might otherwise have lost to a single “progressive” candidate. Therefore, the centre-left parties could win more seats if they explicitly encouraged anti-Conservative tactical voting for whoever had the best chance of defeating the Tory candidate in a given constituency.</p>
<p>This could even entail electoral pacts in some constituencies. Parties that had no chance of winning would stand down to give another progressive party a clear run against the Conservatives. The Greens did this to help the Liberal Democrats in a <a href="http://bright-green.org/2016/11/03/breaking-green-party-will-back-lib-dems-in-richmond/">2016 by-election</a> and some Labour figures wanted to do the same.</p>
<h2>The big problem</h2>
<p>However, calls for a progressive alliance fail to comprehend the contrasting electoral scenarios in Labour-Conservative and Lib Dem-Conservative constituencies. And they overlook the differences voters perceive between the progressive parties.</p>
<p>To see the dangers for progressive parties of electoral pacts, it’s vital to understand that, in the British political system, voters are not only voting for constituency MPs; they are also voting directly for governments. The main option is either a Conservative-led government or a Labour-led government.</p>
<p>Smaller parties must work within these parameters. They might do that by opposing a government led by either major party, or waiting to strike a deal with whichever side offered the best post-election deal. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/liberal-conservative-coalition">Liberal Democrats</a> tried doing that in 2010 and ended up alienating their centre-left supporters by unexpectedly entering a coalition with the Conservatives. The result was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">almost total annihilation</a> in the next election five years later. </p>
<p>Alternatively, smaller parties may pick a side. For the Greens and the nationalist parties, that means the left. But this raises its own problems. If voters strongly associate a small party with one of the major parties – and an electoral pact or formal call for tactical voting would be a clear signal – they will believe a vote for the small party is effectively a vote for a government led by its proximate major party. Most Green and SNP voters probably prefer a Labour-led government to a Conservative-led one, and that is why those two left-leaning parties have been at the forefront of calls for a “progressive alliance” (particularly in the form of a post-election deal, as far as the SNP is concerned).</p>
<p>The more centrist Liberal Democrats face a harder calculation. An electoral pact could encourage Labour and Green supporters to vote tactically for the party in Conservative-Lib Dem marginals in the south of England, boosting its prospects. On the other hand, centrist voters in those constituencies would believe – and the Conservatives would ram home the message – that a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote for a Labour-led government. That might not be disastrous if Labour were itself centrist and popular, but under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, Labour is neither of those two things.</p>
<p>As there are many more centrist voters than left-leaning ones in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, any formal arrangement involving Labour could put these votes at risk for the Liberal Democrats. So while Tim Farron would be delighted to receive tactical votes from Labour supporters in marginal seats, he wants nothing to do with any electoral pact or “progressive alliance” that formally associates his party with Corbyn. The Liberal Democrats prefer instead to remain aloof of both major parties, offering voters the chance to vote for a pro-EU party to oppose the policies of a Conservative government but which will not promise to put Corbyn in Downing Street.</p>
<h2>Remember what happened to Ed</h2>
<p>For Labour, the main danger of a progressive alliance is the SNP. A pact with the nationalists would, for a start, kill off any chance of a Labour revival in Scotland. What more would left-wing voters gain by voting for Labour? It would also risk alienating swing voters in Labour-Conservative English marginal constituencies who dislike the strident separatism of the SNP.</p>
<p>In this case, centrist voters might fear that a vote for Labour would be a vote for Nicola Sturgeon as the puppet-master of a weak Labour government. That was precisely the argument made by the Conservatives in the 2015 election. Ed Miliband, the Labour leader at the time, was depicted in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/09/tory-election-poster-ed-miliband-pocket-snp-alex-salmond">famous poster</a> as being in the pocket of the former SNP first minister, Alex Salmond.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"788458100823101440"}"></div></p>
<p>Interestingly, the poster was deployed in Conservative-Liberal Democrat English marginal seats such as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644">Colchester</a> in the 2015 election. That was despite Labour not having any chance of winning such seats and the SNP not standing candidates. It made strategic sense because centrist voters were being told that a vote for the Liberal Democrats risked becoming a vote for the broader “progressive alliance”. A daisy-chain of negative images thereby linked the Lib Dems to a weak Labour party and the latter to a belligerent SNP. From this perspective, the only alternative was a majority Conservative government. The Conservatives subsequently won Colchester from the Liberal Democrats, one of 26 English seats they took from the party and which were crucial in delivering their slim overall majority.</p>
<p>The general ideological proximity of progressive parties doesn’t mean they are seen as perfect substitutes by swing voters. Theresa May understands that. Instead of what she called <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-will-seek-progressive-alliance-labour/">“a coalition of chaos”</a> involving the centre-left parties, she offers the clarity of a majority Conservative government. If the Conservative prime minister is keen to talk up a “progressive alliance”, that should be warning enough of its inherent dangers for progressive parties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The particularities of the British electoral system make working together unrealistic.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/749732017-04-12T00:38:29Z2017-04-12T00:38:29ZBeyond instant runoff: A better way to conduct multi-candidate elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164512/original/image-20170407-27621-1e5q4aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A vote is cast in New Hampshire 2012 primary. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-New-Hampshire-Primary-2012/de5da42595844cceb510a83af8150039/15/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last November, <a href="https://theconversation.com/maine-ballot-initiative-would-let-voters-rank-candidates-67694">Maine voters approved</a>, by a slim majority, a ballot initiative to adopt a voting system called “instant runoff.” </p>
<p>This system has been proposed as an alternative to our traditional election method – called “plurality voting” – by several politicians, including 2016 Green Party presidential candidate <a href="http://www.jill2016.com/ranked_choice_voting">Jill Stein</a>. It has also been implemented in <a href="http://www.fairvote.org/rcv#where_is_ranked_choice_voting_used">various municipal elections</a> in the United States. </p>
<p>Many other multi-candidate election methods have been proposed. Most of them have the drawback of being complicated, and therefore are probably not politically viable. I want to suggest a method that I believe is much better than both plurality voting and instant runoff, and just as simple as instant runoff. </p>
<h2>Plurality voting and its problems</h2>
<p>In plurality voting, every voter names their favorite candidate, and the candidate named most often wins. </p>
<p>This is the only reasonable thing to do when there are only two candidates, but it becomes problematic when there are more. The problems are <a href="https://electology.org/blog/top-5-ways-plurality-voting-fails">well-recognized</a>. For example, if you were every voter’s second choice among five candidates, you’d be doing very well, quite possibly better than any other candidate by most reasonable measures – yet you would lose. Plurality voting in fact appears to promote the emergence of two-party systems. Political scientists call this <a href="http://scorevoting.net/Duverger.html">Duverger’s Law</a>.</p>
<p>When there are two major candidates and some much weaker third-party candidates, plurality voting leads to “spoiler” problems. The weak candidates can change the outcome, sometimes in ways that their supporters find highly undesirable. For instance, the presence of Green Party candidate Ralph Nader on the presidential ballot in Florida in 2000 may very well have caused Al Gore to lose Florida, and thereby the presidency, even though it’s likely that a large majority of Nader voters preferred Gore to George Bush. </p>
<p>Attempts to improve plurality voting have a long history, with primaries in the U.S. as well as runoff rounds in presidential elections in France, Brazil and other countries. </p>
<h2>Instant runoff and its problems</h2>
<p>With instant runoff, every voter ranks the candidates. The candidate who is ranked first by the fewest voters is then removed from the ballots, and candidates who were ranked underneath the removed candidate move up by one notch. Then the process is repeated until only one candidate remains. That candidate wins.</p>
<p>In practice, one would want to allow voters to rank only some, not all, of the candidates, and one would want to allow ties. These are complications that are important, but also easy to deal with. For simplicity, we’ll assume here that all voters rank all candidates, with no ties.</p>
<p>When there are two strong candidates and some much weaker third-party candidates, instant runoff clearly does away with the spoiler problem. Weak candidates are eliminated early on. </p>
<p>For example, if instant runoff had been used in the 2000 presidential election in Florida, Gore would likely have been president. Nader would have been eliminated early on in the process, and those among his 97,421 voters who preferred Gore over Bush would have been counted as Gore voters. Considering that the final official margin by which Bush won Florida was 537, it seems likely that this would have changed the outcome.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, instant runoff – just like plurality voting – also immediately eliminates the candidate who is everyone’s second choice but nobody’s first.</p>
<p>And, just like plurality voting, instant runoff does not work well when there are more than two strong candidates. It can then produce quite arbitrary outcomes. If there are five strong candidates, should you really be eliminated just because 18 percent of voters put you first, while the other four candidates were placed first by 19 to 22 percent of voters? Shouldn’t we look at how many voters put you second, for instance, before ruling you out as the winner? </p>
<h2>Condorcet and Borda</h2>
<p>Two French noblemen of the 1700s thought about how to organize multi-candidate elections: the Marqis de Condorcet and Jean-Charles de Borda. (Condorcet was friends with Thomas Jefferson, who appears to have paid little attention to Condorcet’s writings about voting.) </p>
<p>Condorcet suggested that, if an absolute majority – more than half the voters – prefers Candidate X to Candidate Y, then Candidate Y should not be the winner. That seems very reasonable. Why not make the majority happier by making X the winner? </p>
<p>Unfortunately, when there are more than two candidates, this principle can easily rule out everyone. There can be a situation where, say, 55 percent of voters prefer Candidate A to Candidate B, 60 percent prefer B to C and 65 percent prefer C to A. </p>
<p>Condorcet didn’t say what should happen in such a case. His proposal refers only to situations in which there is a single candidate, the “Condorcet candidate,” who would beat every other candidate in head-to-head contest. He suggested that a Condorcet candidate, if there is one, should win. </p>
<p>As sensible as this sounds, both plurality voting and instant runoff violate it. Take my earlier example of an election with five candidates. If you are ranked second by every single voter, you might well win head-to-head contests against each of your four competitors. But, under plurality voting or instant runoff, you will lose.</p>
<p>Borda proposed <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/borda-count">his own election method</a> that allots each candidate points based on their ranking. For instance, if there are five candidates, then Borda proposes to give a candidate five points for first place on a voter’s ballot, four points for second place, and so on. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, Borda and Condorcet can clash in a rather dramatic way. Even if an absolute majority of voters place you first, Borda may have you lose if most of the other voters strongly dislike you.</p>
<p>Borda’s method tends to handicap polarizing candidates. This seems like a good thing. However, if an absolute majority of voters place me first, then I should win, according to Condorcet, and most people would probably agree. When Borda’s method makes me lose because I am strongly disliked by a substantial minority, one could – and Condorcet would – argue that this goes a bit too far.</p>
<h2>Merging Condorcet’s and Borda’s ideas</h2>
<p>Merging Condorcet’s and Borda’s ideas creates an election method which, in my view, is much better than instant runoff, and just as simple. (I discuss this method at greater length in <a href="http://epubs.siam.org/doi/book/10.1137/1.9780898717624">my textbook</a> on this subject.) </p>
<p>In the system I propose, voters rank candidates, as in instant runoff and many other election methods. The outcome is then evaluated in two stages: a “Condorcet stage” where we pick out the strongest candidates, followed by a “Borda stage” where we identify the winner. </p>
<p>In the Condorcet stage, we determine the “strong” candidates. We define the “strong” candidates to be the smallest group of candidates with the property that everybody inside the group would beat everybody outside the group in two-person races. (This is also often called the <a href="http://wiki.electorama.com/wiki/Smith_set">Smith set</a>, after the mathematician <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_H._Smith_(mathematician)">John H. Smith</a>.) For instance, if there is a Condorcet candidate X, then X is the only strong candidate. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164701/original/image-20170410-8840-rpb1l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Condorcet stage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christoph Borgers</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We then remove all candidates who are not strong from the ballots, and move on to the Borda stage. The winner is computed with the reduced ballots based on Borda’s method. </p>
<p>In a presidential election, voters would all rank all the candidates: Republicans, Democrats and others. A computer would then determine the strong candidates. (No cause for alarm: Anybody who knows the election results could quite easily verify the computer’s work by hand.) Borda’s method would then decide from among this group. </p>
<p>I believe that many of the people who now support instant runoff should, and would, like this scheme even more. It eliminates weak candidates right away, removing the possibility of spoiler effects. It allows two candidates from the same party to run without interfering with each other so much that neither can win. It allows more than two strong candidates to emerge. When there are several strong candidates, the results are intuitively sensible. The method retains one of the advantages of Borda’s method – namely that polarizing candidates often lose – but, unlike Borda’s method, it does not allow a Condorcet candidate to lose. Equally importantly, the method is simple and transparent, and therefore might be politically viable. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that the issue is important: We cannot value democracy, yet refuse to think about the question how to conduct elections in a fair way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christoph Borgers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some American voters hope that instant runoff can make our elections better. But a mathematician has an idea for another solution.Christoph Borgers, Professor of Mathematics, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/646542016-09-02T15:33:43Z2016-09-02T15:33:43ZCaroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley share Green Party leadership – and an eye for a fruitful alliance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136453/original/image-20160902-20238-1b72g1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lucas has been vocal about pushing for co-operation with Labour.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA/Anthony Devlin</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even the most eager gambler would have struggled to find odds yesterday for the Green Party leadership contest. One betting site was inviting customers to suggest rates. The obvious interpretation of this is that the contest was too predictable and too peripheral to interest the gambling public. But, in fact, only the former is true.</p>
<p>Sure enough, the firm favourite Caroline Lucas has been announced as the new joint leader. Lucas is the party’s only member of parliament and has already served as leader between 2008 and 2012 when she stood down to focus on her Brighton constituency. Crucially, this time around, she will share the leadership with Jonathan Bartley.</p>
<p>The dual candidature of Lucas and Bartley in this contest, which was prompted by Natalie Bennett’s decision not to seek a third term as leader, has been described as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/02/caroline-lucas-jonathan-bartley-green-party-leaders">truly radical</a>”. Lucas said on winning that “we are incredibly proud to be the first leaders of a political party in this country to be job sharing”.</p>
<p>In fact the idea of joint or dispersed leadership is neither as novel, nor as significant to this contest, as some of the media coverage has implied. The Conservatives had no single leader for six years between 1911 and 1922, for example. The Liberal Democrats started out with two leaders, following the merger of the “two-headed” <a href="https://www.libdemnewswire.com/short-history-liberal-sdp-liberal-democrats/">Alliance partnership</a>.</p>
<p>And the development of devolved institutions has split the focus of nationalist leadership away from Westminster. So the SNP has a leader in Scotland and a leader in the British parliament – as indeed do the other parties.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"771710687055900672"}"></div></p>
<p>Even the most ostensibly independent leaders have to share power, of course, as in the effectively dual premiership of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Some have <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/granola-pact-there-rift-between-natalie-bennett-and-caroline-lucas">suggested</a> that this was already the case in the Greens before Bennett’s departure.</p>
<h2>Where next for the Greens?</h2>
<p>The sweeping victory of Lucas and Bartley says more about the likely direction of the Greens, though. Their campaign was based on a very explicit bid for co-operation with other leftist parties in a “progressive alliance”. The aim would be to agree not to fight over parliamentary seats in the next election in order to focus on taking on the right.</p>
<p>Other leadership candidates dismissed the prospect of making a deal. Some were also suspicious of <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/matt-townsend/green-party-leadership-election-stitch-up">crowning Lucas</a> as the once and future monarch of the party. The fear that Lucas and Bartley were carried forward as mainstream media favourites with a nomination list of the Greens’ great and good which railroaded opposition might be given credence by their 86% share of the first preferences cast – they might have done too well to make it look like an equal contest. </p>
<p>The familiar tension between purist “dark green” radicalism and electoralist, broader environmentalism is visible here in the concerns about Lucas and Bartley ticket.</p>
<p>Bartley once worked for the Conservatives, which is a difficult pill for some on the left to swallow. That pill has been somewhat sweetened by the idea of the joint leadership with Lucas – which is presented as a nod to decentralisation and the limitation of over-powerful leadership, to which radical Greens are particularly committed. Before 2008, the party resisted even having a leader at all. Instead, it maintained a revolving panel of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_politics/6484987.stm">“principal speakers”</a>. Aware that there remain doubters in her own ranks, Lucas was careful to reassure conference-goers after winning that “the distinctive Green Party message matters more than ever”.</p>
<p>The real significance of the new Green leadership will become more evident on the fringes of the other parties’ conferences over the next few weeks. Lucas continues to push for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/the-urgent-need-for-a-progressive-alliance">inter-party co-operation</a>, calling for Labour “to recognise that a more plural politics is in both their electoral and political interests”.</p>
<p>How Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the nationalists (who, in Wales, have run joint campaigns with the Greens before) react will be the test of the importance of this leadership election.</p>
<p>As the fate of the last government showed, England – in Disraeli’s fabled phrase – <a href="http://www.libdemvoice.org/disraeli-england-does-not-love-coalitions-17629.html">“does not love coalitions”</a>. They are suspicious of most inter-party deals. However, the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/1997/jul/23/immigrationpolicy">tacit co-operation</a> between Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown’s Liberal Democrats in 1997 was the basis of great electoral success and forged a parliamentary combination supporting major constitutional changes including devolution and the introduction of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/human-rights-act-14984">Human Rights Act</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens came away from 2015 with a million votes and an increased membership. That gives them leverage with Labour. And with the Conservative government rowing back on some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/24/the-9-green-policies-killed-off-by-tory-government">important green policies</a> brought in under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015, there is a clear clear platform on which to campaign.</p>
<p>Until the formula and conditions for achieving co-operation are reached, however – in the right issues being on the public agenda and the willing co-operation of personalities in other parties – the odds are that Lucas and Bartley will remain only potentially significant as leaders of the Green Party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64654/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Cole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The job-share candidates were always the favourites to win. Their challenge now will be to convince Labour to work together too.Matthew Cole, Teaching Fellow, Department of History, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/633652016-08-03T03:08:14Z2016-08-03T03:08:14ZRadicals in the Democratic Party, from Upton Sinclair to Bernie Sanders<p>As we watch Bernie Sanders’ supporters struggling to come to terms with the nomination of Hillary Clinton, it makes sense to ask why leftists are involved in the Democratic Party in the first place.</p>
<p>It started in 1934 when Upton Sinclair, author of <a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/files/140/140-h/140-h.htm">“The Jungle”</a> and a socialist for most of his life, announced that he would run for governor of California as a Democrat. This began a unique relationship that has been important to American politics ever since. </p>
<p>Why unique? </p>
<p>In most countries throughout Europe and the Americas, the left has its own party or parties. And until the 1930s, American radicals were committed to standing apart from the two mainstream parties, especially the Democratic Party that had long represented white supremacy in the South and corrupt urban regimes in the North. </p>
<p>For 30 years, the Socialist Party carried the electoral hopes of most radicals. Then, in 1932, Socialist Party presidential candidate Norman Thomas endured a crushingly defeat, receiving just <a href="http://depts.washington.edu/moves/radical_votes.shtml">2.2 percent</a> of the vote.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=808&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1016&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1016&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132829/original/image-20160802-17169-4gxoog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1016&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Upton Sinclair.</span>
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</figure>
<p>Upton Sinclair, who had previously run for governor as a Socialist, now set out to do so again as a Democrat. His 1934 campaign electrified California and the nation. Announcing a bold socialistic plan to “End Poverty in California” during the Great Depression, he built a political movement much larger than anything the Socialist Party had ever accomplished. </p>
<p>I have written extensively about the EPIC movement and direct an <a href="http://depts.washington.edu/epic34/">online project</a> that includes detailed accounts of the campaign and copies of campaign materials. And the <a href="http://depts.washington.edu/moves/index.shtml">Mapping American Social Movements</a> project tracks the broader history of 20th-century radicalism.</p>
<p>Although finally defeated by red-baiting in the general election, Sinclair’s vote tally of 879,537 in California was close to what Norman Thomas had achieved nationwide.</p>
<p>The lesson was obvious. Radicals could do much better working inside the Democratic Party than trying to win elections on their own. </p>
<h2>The New Deal Left</h2>
<p>In the years that followed, radicals of many kinds became energetic New Dealers working from within to push the Democratic Party to the left. The Socialist Party withered. The radical labor activists who created the United Auto Workers and other new Congress of Industrial Organizations unions tied them closely to the party of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/franklindroosevelt">Franklin D. Roosevelt</a>. Even the Communist Party embraced the new strategy after 1936, still fielding some of its own candidates while working quietly to support progressive Democrats in what it called the <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Heyday_of_American_Communism.html?id=IqPlAAAACAAJ">“Democratic Front.”</a> </p>
<p>In some states, radicals found ways to be both separate and included. The <a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/14388.html">Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party and Wisconsin Progressive Party</a> cooperated with Democrats at the national level while competing with the older party in state and local elections. The American Labor Party in New York was also formally separate but in practice endorsed progressive New Dealers.</p>
<p>In many other states, radicals created caucuses inside the Democratic party similar to what Tea Party activists have done recently in the <a href="https://www.gop.com/">Republican Party</a>. Radicals in California briefly controlled the party apparatus and managed to nominate progressives like California Governor <a href="http://governors.library.ca.gov/29-olson.html">Culbert Olson</a> and U.S. Representative <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/when-jfk-backed-nixon-his-notorious-race-vs-helen-gahagan-douglas/">Helen Gahagan Douglas</a> and help them win elections until the late 1940s. The <a href="http://depts.washington.edu/depress/Washington_Commonwealth_Federation.shtml">Washington Commonwealth Federation</a> was still more effective. Operating as a formal organization within the Democratic Party, the WCF nominated slates of candidates, developed platforms and pressured lawmakers at all levels for progressive legislation.</p>
<h2>Rocky from the start</h2>
<p>So began the marriage between radicals and the Democratic Party that continues today. It has been rocky from the start and there have been several near-divorces as leftists at some moments retested the strategy of independence. </p>
<p>In 1948, as the Truman administration geared up Cold War policies at home and abroad, former Vice President <a href="http://uncpress.unc.edu/books/T-7852.html">Henry Wallace</a> agreed to mount a third-party challenge. Supported by the Communists, Wallace failed to pull most leftists away from the Democratic Party. Truman won reelection and the left lost credibility. For the next two decades, the Democratic Party was decidedly centrist at all levels and almost every state.</p>
<p>The radicals who built <a href="http://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/90626/american-dreamers-by-michael-kazin/9780307596703/">new social movements</a> in the 1960s around civil rights, black power, feminism, environmentalism and opposition to the Vietnam War had no tolerance for the centrist Democratic Party, especially after Lyndon Johnson guided the nation from cold to hot war. The alienation yielded a new third party, the <a href="http://www.peaceandfreedom.org/home/">Peace and Freedom Party</a>, that secured a position on the ballot in several states in the contentious 1968 election. Mostly, however, the New Left shunned electoral politics in the late 1960s. Their revolution was taking place in the streets.</p>
<p>Then in the early 1970s, the marriage resumed. It started at local levels and had much to do with African-American activists mobilizing for municipal elections and with feminist campaigns to see more women in office. When George McGovern won the Democratic presidential nomination in 1972, he was carried along by millions of young people determined to end the war abroad and transform society at home. McGovern lost, but the activists reformed the party, rewriting nomination and convention rules in ways that would encourage grassroots activism and insure significant roles for women and communities of color.</p>
<h2>Involvement and frustration</h2>
<p>The framework of 1972 has given radicals ever since a stake in the Democratic Party. It’s also been the source of a lot of frustration. The role of the left is mostly invisible and thus different than 1930s and 1940s when clearly identified radical caucuses were common. For one thing, it is hard to know what “the left” is and who belongs to it. The <a href="http://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/catalog/89cmd2yt9780252038846.html">contemporary left</a> has no structure nor even a definite label. “Progressive” has become a vague identifier, but the term is used so loosely as to be almost meaningless.</p>
<p>Secondly, the left has been largely shut out of national level Democratic Party campaigns since 1972. Only once has there been anything like the Sanders campaign. In 1984, Jessie Jackson’s Rainbow Coalition primary challenge turned into a grand crusade that energized and expanded the left in a manner not unlike 2016. Otherwise centrists have commanded the party’s main stage.</p>
<p>More often radicals have been engaged in local-level campaigns where now and then an exciting progressive has been elected to office. Examples include Former Mayor <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/chi-chicagodays-haroldwashington-story-story.html">Harold Washington</a> in Chicago, Mayor <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Antonio-Villaraigosa">Antonio Villaraigosa</a> in Los Angeles and <a href="http://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/">Mayor Bill de Blasio</a> in New York. Black, Latino, Asian and gay candidates, ballot measures defending the rights of women, immigrants, and LGBTQ people, or helping working people — these are the campaigns that refresh the passions of progressives and keep them active in electoral politics.</p>
<p>Most of all it is the power and threat from the right that has kept radicals involved in the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>The Green Party was launched in 1990 to try an independent electoral strategy once again. After winning some city council seats in California and Wisconsin, the party mounted presidential campaigns behind Ralph Nader in 1996 and 2000. </p>
<p>When Nader’s Florida vote cost Al Gore the <a href="http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2000&fips=12">2000 presidential election</a>, the lesson of 1934 was reemphasized: whatever the attractions of third parties, the best hope of the left is inside the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>There is another lesson from 1934 that the Sanders team is probably thinking about. The relationships of the New Deal Era worked better than more recent versions because the left was organized and visible within the Democratic Party. Radical New Dealers dragged the party to the left, pushing policies that transformed the political economy of the nation and the rights of Americans. Will the revitalized left coming out of this election play a similar role in the years to come?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James N. Gregory does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Until the 1930s, American radicals stood apart from the two mainstream parties. That changed when a muckraking journalist ran for governor of California.James N. Gregory, Professor of History, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/416312015-05-11T15:33:57Z2015-05-11T15:33:57ZWhy reforming Britain’s electoral system will be harder than ever<p>Even before the full results of the 2015 general election were confirmed, a familiar cry was already being heard: the UK’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system was broken and in dire need of change. It’s easy to point to almost any detail from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-proportional-representation-in-the-uk-just-became-clearer-41544">election outcome to support this claim</a>. </p>
<p>A Conservative majority government was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">formed with 50.1% of seats</a> in the House of Commons but just 36.9% of the national vote. The Scottish National Party secured 95% of Scottish seats on a 50% share of the Scottish vote. UKIP won 12.6% of the national vote, yet won just one seat. </p>
<p>The UKIP story is especially illuminating as the party came second in 120 constituencies, became the third largest national party in terms of vote share, yet in the end made no electoral gains. Considering UKIP and the Green Party together, they won over five million votes between them, but only two seats out of 650. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/electoral-reform-society-result-nail-in-coffin-first-past-the-post">Analysis</a> by the Electoral Reform Society shows that 63% of those who voted on May 7 did so for losing candidates, and that almost half of elected MPs won less than 50% of their constituency vote.</p>
<p>Looking at numbers like these, something seems decidedly rotten with our electoral system.</p>
<h2>Alternative election outcomes</h2>
<p>Had the 2015 general election been run <a href="https://theconversation.com/proportional-representation-and-the-2015-general-election-how-the-picture-might-have-looked-41559">under a more proportional system</a>, we would almost certainly have got the hung parliament that most of the forecasters had assured us we were destined for. Under the Alternative Vote (AV) system, UKIP and the Greens would probably have won 82 and 24 seats respectively, while the Conservative majority would have disappeared. Such figures are only estimates because there’s no guarantee that people would vote the same way under a different electoral system.</p>
<p>We were given the opportunity to adopt the AV system in a 2011 referendum, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13297573">yet it was decisively rejected</a>, with 68% of voters opting for No on a 42% turnout, in part the result of the abject failure of electoral reform advocates to craft a convincing case in favour of change. Despite evidence that FPTP punishes small parties and artificially inflates majorities at Westminster, it remains the system we use.</p>
<h2>Is there a chance of change?</h2>
<p>A <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-sixty-per-cent-of-people-want-voting-reform-says-survey-10224354.html">survey</a> for the Independent, published before the election, suggested that around 60% of people want electoral reform so that smaller parties are more fairly represented. However, the chances of electoral reform in the next parliament are close to non-existent.</p>
<p>The Conservative Party is committed to FPTP and <a href="http://conservativehome.blogs.com/avstory/2011/05/the-story-of-the-av-campaign.html">campaigned</a> to retain it in the 2011 referendum. The new Conservative government will now push to implement constituency boundary changes pursued as part of the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/1/contents/enacted">Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011</a>. These were previously <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21235169">blocked</a> by their former Liberal Democrat coalition partners because of the failure to secure House of Lords reform. </p>
<p>These boundary changes will deliver more equally sized constituencies, and remove <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/electoral-bias/">system bias</a> which means that it takes fewer votes to elect a Labour MP than a Conservative MP. They may also enhance the Conservatives’ chances of winning again in 2020. In this context, the Conservative government has no rational reason to pursue electoral reform.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">David Cameron’s argument against the Alternative Vote.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An already busy constitutional agenda</h2>
<p>The new government already faces a substantial agenda of constitutional politics without adding to the load. The 2015 <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/conservatives-to-push-forward-on-manifesto-and-scrap-human-rights-act">Queen’s Speech</a> is likely to contain measures to repeal the 1998 Human Rights Act, as well as legislation for a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU. Just these two pieces of business alone will eat up a lot parliamentary time which is then not available for all the other public policy measures the government wants to pursue. </p>
<p>Add to this the political and legislative workload involved in <a href="https://theconversation.com/next-uk-governments-legitimacy-crisis-in-scotland-will-be-a-weapon-for-the-snp-41402">devolving</a> further powers to Scotland – and potentially revisiting the Smith Commission proposals in the process due to the SNP landslide – while also crafting a working arrangement for <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-political-party-is-threatening-the-union-and-its-not-the-snp-40507">English votes for English laws</a>, and it’s obvious that the government has more than enough to be going on with as far as constitutional politics is concerned.</p>
<h2>Electoral prospects under FPTP</h2>
<p>So long as either of the two mains parties can win functioning majorities in the House of Commons, the chances of electoral reform will remain slim. If another majority government is elected in 2020, it will be easy to chalk the 2010 hung parliament up to simple aberration.</p>
<p>The 2015 <a href="https://theconversation.com/lib-dem-rump-in-parliament-can-take-comfort-in-partys-long-record-of-staging-comebacks-41548">decimation of the Liberal Democrats</a> as an electoral force, combined with the inability of UKIP to translate its millions of votes into Commons seats, actually make it easier to dismiss electoral reform demands, because those with the power to pursue reform are those who sit on the government benches. The emergence of the SNP as the third largest party inside the Commons further skews the issue because their central political motivation involves Scottish independence rather than Westminster reform. </p>
<p>Crucially, by 2020 the Labour Party will be seeking to return to government after ten years in opposition. While it may later revive electoral reform should it fail to win a majority in 2020, Labour may decide not to adopt pre-emptive commitments on this issue before first testing the water to see if it can form a single-party government. After all, the Conservatives managed, against the odds, to secure a majority in 2015, and Labour may well take that as evidence that a resurgent opposition party could do the same thing next time around, irrespective of what polls may say nearer the time.</p>
<p>In the final analysis, despite current hand-wringing over the unfairness of first-past-the-post system, it is almost certainly here to stay for the foreseeable future. The truth is that those in favour of electoral reform had a chance to secure change in 2011, but they blew it. It’s likely to be a long time before another opportunity presents itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandra Kelso receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the Nuffield Foundation.</span></em></p>Parliamentary log-jam, unwilling backbenchers and Conservative preference for first-past-the-post make reform unlikely.Alexandra Kelso, Associate Professor in British Politics, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/415442015-05-08T15:24:16Z2015-05-08T15:24:16ZThe case for proportional representation in the UK just became clearer<p>Despite the <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservatives-defy-forecasts-to-secure-victory-in-uk-election-41400">close polls</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aftershocks-of-the-snps-success-will-be-felt-throughout-the-next-parliament-41127">surge</a> of the Scottish National Party, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservatives-defy-forecasts-to-secure-victory-in-uk-election-41400">UK election result</a> of a single party majority government is one almost no one predicted. One immediate response is that the electoral system is working again and producing a strong, majority government: the Conservatives can claim that they clearly won the election.</p>
<p>Yet the reality is very different. The 2015 result has produced a considerable divergence between vote share and seats won. The problem is that a 19th-century system of voting in the context of two major parties now seems broken. David Cameron has been hailed for pulling off an extraordinary victory but the fact is that his party <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">has gained 23 seats</a>, becoming a majority party with a swing of only 0.8%. Labour, on the other hand, saw a positive swing of 1.5% but lost 26 seats.</p>
<p>There is a strong argument that the 2015 results are perverse and that electoral reform – such as some kind of proportional representation, where the number of seats are determined by the share of the vote – is much-needed. </p>
<p>The SNP with just under 1.5m votes won 56 seats. UKIP with 3.8m votes won only one seat and the Liberal Democrats with nearly 2.4m votes have only 8 seats. The point is that votes are not equal and many people may feel that their political engagement is irrelevant. </p>
<h2>63% of voters did not support the Tories</h2>
<p>This result throws up both moral questions and issues of legitimacy. The Conservatives will now come to office claiming a mandate to govern. In his first statement outside Number 10, David Cameron said that as the head of a majority government <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/david-camerons-victory-speech-the-full-text-of-the-speech-delivered-on-downing-street-10236230.html">he can deliver all</a> of his manifesto. </p>
<p>Yet 63% of voters did not support his party. The swing to the Conservatives was minute and they still have just one seat in Scotland out of 59. Their majority is an artifact of the electoral system and not a true reflection of the choices of voters. How can the government claim to represent the electorate with such a small proportion of the vote? No mechanism exists to ensure that the Conservative government takes accounts of the views of those who did not vote for them.</p>
<p>At the same time, millions of Green and UKIP voters are represented by just one MP each. The irony is that while an anti-political mood appears to have influenced many voters to reject the traditional parties, the outcome is that they are less represented than ever. And they can see how directly they are being excluded from the political system.</p>
<p>Again, while the SNP has gained many votes and seats, hundreds of thousands of Scottish Liberal Democratic, Conservative and Labour voters have no representation in Scotland – apparently denying a voice in parliament to the Scottish unionist position.</p>
<h2>Not fit for purpose</h2>
<p>The problem is that first past the post functioned in a two-party system where party support was spread relatively evenly across the nation. With a multi-party system and considerable regional variation, the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. Very few voters can make a significant outcome to the electorate, undermining the democratic legitimacy of British government.</p>
<p>The case for electoral reform is stronger than ever. UKIP, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats have a clear interest in proportional representation. Yet, while the Conservatives have benefited most from first past the post they actually have strong reasons for supporting electoral reform. </p>
<p>The election has thrown up the question of the Union more starkly. Cameron has said he is committed to governing for the whole of Britain. Yet, under the current system we have a Scotland with almost no Unionist representation and we could have an system of English votes for English laws with an inbuilt Conservative majority. </p>
<h2>Who wants reform</h2>
<p>The way for the Conservatives to gain legitimacy across the union and to ensure representation for all English voters would be through a proportional system. At the same time if Labour wants to have representation in Scotland and the South of England, proportional representation would enable them to broaden their support.</p>
<p>The irony for the Conservatives and Labour is that the best way to save the union and engage the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2015-election-could-reignite-the-debate-about-electoral-reform-in-britain-37449">electorate may be electoral reform</a>. Yet the 2015 election has demonstrated that with small shifts in voting they can achieve the holy grail of majority government. For Labour, the issue of electoral reform may become pressing. The results in Scotland mean that they either need a collapse of the SNP or a different voting system if they are to get into government again. </p>
<p>For the Conservatives, questions of legitimacy and long-term political strategy suggest they have an interest in reform. But the reality is that they have won a majority on a very small swing and they have a short-term political interest in the current status quo. There will be little or no pressure for reform on the government side and, of course, with a majority they are in a position to veto any attempts to change. Despite the perversities of the outcome, a real prospect of electoral reform will only come if the 2020 election again produces a hung parliament where minor parties may be in a position to press for reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Smith receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, but the views expressed in this article are his own. </span></em></p>With 63% of the country not voting Tory, the result throws up its own question of legitimacy.Martin Smith, Anniversary Professor of Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393412015-05-05T05:21:34Z2015-05-05T05:21:34ZElection 2015: Brighton at the centre of the battle for the south coast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80070/original/image-20150501-8416-1e9i1g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C169%2C2092%2C1415&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">On the lookout for gullible voters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikelo/217805015">Mikel Ortega/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/hot-seats">Hot Seats</a> is a series in which academics report from the UK’s most interesting marginal constituencies. Paul Webb and Pollyanna Ruiz look at three battles in the Brighton area.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Much of England’s south-east coast has traditionally been a Conservative fiefdom – and as things stand, most of it still is. </p>
<p>Of the 21 parliamentary constituencies along the coast from Thanet South to the mouth of the Test at Southampton, seven are currently held by non-Tory MPs. Eastbourne, Lewes and Eastbourne have Liberal Democrat MPs, while <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/29/disgraced-former-lib-dem-mp-mike-hancock-vows-run-again-portsmouth">Mike Hancock</a>, the independent incumbent for Portsmouth South, is a former Lib Dem. The two Southampton seats, Itchen and Test, are Labour-held, and Brighton Pavilion belongs to the Greens. </p>
<p>About half of these coastal seats are shaping up to be marginal contests in 2015. Labour is fighting to hold off Conservative challengers in both Southampton seats while simultaneously trying to wrest both Dover and Hastings & Rye away from the Tories. The Liberal Democrats hope Stephen Lloyd can hold on to Eastbourne, but Hancock’s determination to run again as an independent will make it hard for them to regain their former stronghold of Portsmouth South. </p>
<p>And then there’s Thanet South, which looked anything but marginal in 2010 but which is now a three-way contest between Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP thanks to the candidacy of Nigel Farage.</p>
<p>But if you’re looking for a real bellwether on the south coast, Brighton and Hove might be the place to watch.</p>
<h2>Tricky triple</h2>
<p>The Brighton area’s three seats have tended to change hands with new governments in recent decades, flipping to the Tories in 1992, to Labour in 1997, and in two cases back to the Conservatives in 2010. But 2010 also saw the Greens’ Caroline Lucas win her <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8666445.stm">surprise victory</a> in Pavilion, which reflected the electorate’s deep uncertainty about the two biggest parties and its growing openness to new ones. </p>
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<p>All three seats are marginal. The Tories have a steep hill to climb to retain Kemptown and especially Hove, where Mike Weatherley’s departure will deprive them of any incumbency advantage. Lucas faces the tightest margin of the three, but her <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/28/caroline-lucas-im-not-playing-about">strong reputation</a> as an engaging national figure and a dedicated constituency MP means that she will have a decent chance of holding off Labour despite the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/15/greens-blown-it-in-brighton">growing local unpopularity</a> of the city’s Green-controlled council. She will also be assisted by a tremendous grassroots organisational effort.</p>
<p>Across the region, issues that are nationally prominent (the economy, the deficit, immigration, housing, health and education) have certainly all featured in constituency campaigns, albeit with distinctive local twists. Above all, this is true of health, where the performance and future of hospitals (in Brighton and Hove, the Royal Sussex County Hospital) is a particular concern. Immigration is relatively marginal, more of a feature of other seaside towns and ports which have experienced more significant inflows over the past decade.</p>
<p>Local issues such as <a href="https://notesbrokensociety.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/park-and-ride-a-trivial-response-to-brightons-traffic-problems/">traffic problems</a> and controversial infrastructural projects such as the building of the massive <a href="http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10812608.Brighton_and_Hove_s_i360_seafront_tower__will_happen__as_West_Pier_plans_go_back_to_the_drawing_board/">i360 observation tower</a> in Hove have provoked heated debate in Brighton. </p>
<p>A novel but interesting insight into the issue agendas of these constituencies is now being provided through a <a href="http://www.demos.co.uk/projects/casm">new analysis</a> of social media activity that has been generated by researchers at the University of Sussex and Demos. </p>
<h2>The man in the tweet</h2>
<p>On the measure of social media, Green activists have been particularly assiduous tweeters in Brighton Pavilion and Hove, while Labour has the more active digital troops in Brighton Kemptown. </p>
<p>By a comfortable distance, health has been the biggest single issue for Brighton’s social media activists: some 16% of all tweets we examined concerned the NHS, with the environment a distant second on just 5%. The focus on these two areas has if anything been even more emphatic in neighbouring Hove, with health accounting for 20% of Tweets, and the environment 10%. </p>
<p>Much of the local traffic on Facebook that hasn’t come from the campaigns themselves has been negative about the mainstream parties, and the Conservatives in particular, but UKIP is getting a lot of flack too, despite its populist anti-mainstream stance. </p>
<p>And as they’re doing elsewhere, Brighton and Hove’s local activists are using online spaces to share information about subjects that they think aren’t being covered enough in the mainstream media. </p>
<p>Top of that list is housing and homelessness, which has been a serious problem in Brighton and Hove for a long time. Campaigners from community groups not aligned with any of the mainstream parties (such as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/loveactivistsbrighton">Love Activists</a> and <a href="http://www.livingrent.org/">Living Rent</a>) have been using Facebook to organise supplies of food and sleeping bags for the homeless, and to interrogate manifesto pledges on housing, particularly the Tories’ promise to extend tenants’ right to buy social housing. They have also tried to mobilise attendance at local hustings. </p>
<p>Similarly, groups such as <a href="https://coalitionofresistance.wordpress.com/">Coalition of Resistance: Can’t Pay, Won’t Pay</a>, <a href="http://www.ukuncut.org.uk/about/">UK Uncut</a>, and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SussexDefendTheNHS">Sussex Defend Our NHS</a> have all provided information about (and criticism of) austerity policies locally, while <a href="http://action.hopenothate.org.uk/page/event/detail/w9q">Hope Not Hate</a> has worked to debunk Farage’s claims about foreigners using the NHS for HIV treatment.</p>
<p>Some of this activity undoubtedly reflects Brighton’s well-known tradition of socially liberal and leftist politics, but there’s a wider point here too. Social media is increasingly being used as a vital means of political engagement and mobilisation, particularly by candidates challenging incumbent MPs, by smaller parties, and by non-party grassroots activists. </p>
<p>For them, social media is a tool to undercut the traditional resource advantages of the mainstream political actors. And seats such as these, where highly involved and motivated activists can swing a marginal result with their hard work, means everyone concerned has all to play for.</p>
<p><em>Rosy Cobb also contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39341/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The three marginal seats clustered around Brighton and Hove are hosting a multi-party social media brawl.Paul Webb, Professor of Politics, University of SussexPollyanna Ruiz, Lecturer in Media and Communications., University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.