tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/hage-geingob-34650/articlesHage Geingob – The Conversation2024-02-04T16:23:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227302024-02-04T16:23:16Z2024-02-04T16:23:16ZHage Geingob: Namibian president who played a modernising role<p>Hage Gottfried Geingob <a href="https://www.namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/113/113">served as the third president of Namibia</a> from 2015 until his death on February 4 2024. He was Namibia’s first prime minister from 1990 to 2002, and served as prime minister again from 2012 to 2015.</p>
<p>Geingob was born on <a href="https://www.parliament.na/dt_team/geingob-hage/">3 August 1941</a>. He joined the ranks of the national liberation movement South West African People’s Organisation (<a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-west-africa-peoples-organisation-swapo">Swapo</a> during its formation in 1960.</p>
<p>As the official statement <a href="https://twitter.com/NamPresidency/status/1753963884828823682">declared</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Namibian nation has lost a distinguished servant of the people, a
liberation struggle icon, the chief architect of our constitution and the pillar of the Namibian house.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As Swapo’s candidate he was <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hage-Geingob">elected</a> as Namibia’s president for 2015 to 2020 in November 2014. In 2017 he replaced Hifikepunye Pohamba as party president. As head of state with <a href="https://theconversation.com/namibia-badly-needs-refurbishment-after-32-years-under-the-ruling-party-179205">far reaching executive powers</a>, he remained in control over party and government since then. </p>
<p>Geingob’s political career differed from that of his predecessors Sam Nujoma and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hifikepunye-Pohamba">Hifikepunye Pohamba</a>. <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/200904240652.html">Nujoma</a>, the founding president of Swapo, served as president for three terms (1990-2005). Pohamba (2005-2015) was his designated successor. </p>
<p>Geingob personified a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44508019">“changing of the guard”</a>. His advanced formal education left an imprint on the way of governance during his terms in office. A younger generation moved gradually into higher party and state ranks. He successfully modified the heroic struggle narrative and turned it into a more inclusive, patriotic history. </p>
<h2>Geingob’s career</h2>
<p>Geingob had his cultural roots in the Damara community. This made him different from the mainstream Swapo leadership, which is mainly from the Oshiwambo-speaking population. </p>
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<p>Geingob’s different background counted in his favour among many Namibians when campaigning for presidency. People welcomed a leader with origins in an ethnically defined minority group as a sign of multi-cultural plurality.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.parliament.na/dt_team/geingob-hage/">Studying</a> at the US American Temple University in Philadelphia, the Fordham University (BA) and The New School (MA), both in New York, Geingob was representing Swapo since the mid-1960s at the United Nations. In 1975 he became the head of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/160803">United Nations Institute for Namibia</a> in Lusaka. </p>
<p>He returned to Namibia in mid-1989, leading the Swapo election campaign in the transition to independence under <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40175168">supervision of the United Nations</a>. He played a <a href="https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5fa370c-004f-c92d-0ba3-7b3ca48aab38&groupId=252038">decisive role as chairman of the elected Constituent Assembly</a>. </p>
<p>He was appointed Prime Minister in 1990. </p>
<p>In 2002 he fell into disgrace for not supporting <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/legacies-of-power">Sam Nujoma’s presidency-for-life ambitions</a>. Instead of accepting his demotion to Minister of Regional and Local Government and Housing, he became executive secretary of the <a href="https://gcacma.org/AboutGCA.htm">Washington-based Global Coalition for Africa</a>. </p>
<p>In 2004 he obtained a PhD at the University of Leeds for a <a href="https://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/21090/">thesis</a> on state formation in Namibia.</p>
<p>He returned the same year to Namibia. Thanks to Pohamba’s reconciliatory approach, he made a remarkable comeback. Minister of Trade and industry from 2008 to 2012, he again became Prime Minister (2012-2015). </p>
<p>His clever politically strategic mind paved the way to be elected as president of the party and state. </p>
<h1>Geingob’s presidency</h1>
<p>In the Presidential and National Assembly elections of <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-12-02-namibias-swapo-win-elections-geingob-voted-as-president/">November 2014</a> Geingob and Swapo scored the best results in the country’s history. While Nujoma was termed the president for stability and Pohamba the president for continuity, Geingob campaigned as <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC-5ae9d1ff3">president for prosperity</a>. </p>
<p>But this made him the president of unfulfilled promises. </p>
<p>Geingob’s rhetoric disclosed a stronger contrast between what was said and what was done than that of his predecessors. He used more <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03056244.2018.1500360">populist</a> rhetoric as his style of governance and leadership, coining the metaphor of the “Namibian House. </p>
<p>As he <a href="https://www.namibiaembassyusa.org/sites/default/files/statements/Inaugural%20Speech%20by%20HE%20Hage%20%20Geingob%201.pdf">declared in his inaugural address</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All of us must play our part in the success of this beautiful house we call Namibia. We need to renew it from time to time by undergoing renovations and extensions. … Let us stand together in building this new Namibian house in which no Namibian will feel left out.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But over the years many felt left out. The November 2019 parliamentary and presidential election <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2020.1717090">results</a> were the worst for Swapo since independence. A 2020 Afrobarometer survey confirmed <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/articles/trust-political-institutions-decline-namibia-afrobarometer-survey-shows/">a decline of trust</a>.</p>
<p>In all fairness, Geingob entered office at a difficult time. The country faced fiscal constraints and a period of serious droughts, followed by the traumatic impact of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2020.1790776">Covid</a>. Consequently, the socio-economic track record under him was at best mixed. On balance, his governance was characterised by a considerable gap between <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/namibia-2024-promises-or-delivery/">promises and delivery </a>. </p>
<p>Under Geingob a decline of ethics became visible, manifested spectacularly in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FJ1TB0nwHs">corruption scandal</a> in the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/timely-and-engaging-fishrot/">fishing industry</a>. It became the synonym of state capture. Fighting <a href="https://africa.cgtn.com/namibias-president-geingob-pledges-stronger-fight-against-corruption/">corruption</a> became Geingob’s mantra. But it had little credibility in the eyes of the wider public. </p>
<h1>The moderniser</h1>
<p>Geingob was first married (1967-1992) to a strong-minded African-American woman. Fondly called "Auntie Patty”, Priscilla Geingos was <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/auntie-patty-laid-to-rest-in-windhoek">laid to rest in Windhoek in 2014</a>. </p>
<p>Before entering office, Geingob (divorced for a second time from Loini Kandume in 2008) married the businesswoman Monica Kalondo in 2015. Strong, loyal, and independent-minded, Monica Geingos became an <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/aboutunaids/unaidsambassadors/MonicaGeingos">active and internationally recognised First Lady</a>.</p>
<p>Among Geingob’s most laudable achievements <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2022/06/experts-committee-elimination-discrimination-against-women-congratulate-namibia">is a gender-aware policy</a>. It elevated Namibia into the league of countries with the highest proportion of women in leading political offices.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://namibia.unfpa.org/en/topics/gender-based-violence-3">took a stand against</a> gender-based violence and the country progressed in closing the gender inequality gap.</p>
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<p>He was also reluctant to give in to <a href="https://www.washingtonblade.com/2023/06/14/landmark-namibia-supreme-court-ruling-sparks-anti-gay-backlash/">homophobia</a> prevalent among parliamentarians. In May 2023 the Supreme Court ruled in favour of <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/on-same-sex-relationships/">equal treatment</a> of two foreign same sex spouses married to Namibian citizens. While the vast majority of members of the National Assembly pushed through a law amendment seeking <a href="https://www.southernafricalitigationcentre.org/2023/07/20/namibias-proposed-amendment-of-the-marriage-act-an-attack-on-the-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary/">to invalidate the verdict</a>, Geingob did not sign the bill into law. </p>
<h1>Geingob’s legacy</h1>
<p>One of the last official statements by Geingob, on 13 January 2024, testified to his strong views. Upset over Germany’s taking side with Israel at the International Court of Justice, he <a href="https://twitter.com/NamPresidency/status/1746259880871149956">fumed</a>:</p>
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<p>The German Government is yet to fully atone for the genocide it committed on Namibian soil. Germany cannot morally express commitment to the United Nations Convention against genocide, including atonement for the genocide in Namibia, whilst supporting the equivalent of a holocaust and genocide in Gaza.</p>
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<p>Geingob was ambitious to enter Namibian history as the president who did more to promote the welfare and advancement of citizens. But he struggled to turn that vision into reality in office. Namibia remains among the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/namibia/overview#:%7E:text=Namibia%20ranks%20as%20one%20of,services%20are%20large%20and%20widening">most unequal countries</a> in the world. </p>
<p>As he reiterated in his <a href="https://twitter.com/NamPresidency/status/1741615241614508304">New Year Address 2024</a>:</p>
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<p>In order to seize the opportunities that are in line with our ambitions and expectations, we should redouble our efforts to make Namibia a better country. I call on each one of you to work harder for our collective welfare. I call on all of you to hold hands and to ensure that no one feels left out of the Namibian House.</p>
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<p>His legacy as a moderniser will live on despite all the contradictions and unfulfilled promises. </p>
<p>Hamba kahle (Rest in peace).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of Swapo since 1974. </span></em></p>Hage Geingob’s legacy as a moderniser will live on despite contradictions and unfulfilled promises.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2160182023-10-19T15:06:20Z2023-10-19T15:06:20ZMartti Ahtisaari: the Finnish peacemaker who played midwife to Namibian independence<p>Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, died on 16 October at the <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2023-10-16/statement-attributable-the-spokesperson-for-the-secretary-general-the-death-of-martti-ahtisaari">age of 86</a>. Born in eastern Finland, he was two years old when his family fled from the Russian invasion at the outbreak of the second world war. </p>
<p>A trained school teacher, he moved in 1960 to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/martti-ahtisaari-obituary">Swedish Pakistani Institute in Karachi</a>. In 1965 he joined the Finnish foreign service. His posting as a diplomat in Tanzania <a href="https://finlandabroad.fi/web/tza/current-affairs/-/asset_publisher/h5w4iTUJhNne/content/suurl-c3-a4hetyst-c3-b6-50-vuotta-martti-ja-eeva-ahtisaaren-tervehdys/384951">in 1973</a> was the beginning of lasting bonds to the African continent. Only two years later, he started his commitment to the struggle for self-determination of the Namibian people. </p>
<p>Namibia, then called South West Africa, was under the illegal control of apartheid South Africa. According to the United Nations, it was <a href="https://www.unmultimedia.org/avlibrary/asset/2040/2040311/">“a trust betrayed”</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/understanding-namibia/">Namibia</a> and its <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5079769_Conflict_mediation_in_decolonisation_Namibia's_transition_to_independence">decolonisation process</a> have been among my interests as a scholar. Martti Ahtisaari played a crucial role in the United Nations supervised transition to independence, as documented in his biography, aptly titled <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-mediator/">The Mediator</a>.</p>
<p>The government of Namibia awarded him honorary Namibian citizenship after independence. Upon the news of his death he was locally <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/a-light-during-namibias-dark-days/">praised as</a> </p>
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<p>a light during Namibia’s dark days.</p>
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<p>Namibia’s President Hage Geingob described him as a friend of the Namibian liberation struggle and a leading peacemaker. Through the United Nations, he “<a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/namibia-mourns-ahtisaari-fondly-remembered-for-impact-on-namibias-journey-to-independence">played a pivotal role in midwifing the birth of a new Namibia</a>”.</p>
<p>Ahtisaari’s work in Namibia was the beginning of a long and successful engagement in international conflict mediation. Many more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/martti-ahtisaari-obituary">diplomatic achievements</a> in various parts of the world followed. </p>
<h2>Ahtisaari and Namibia</h2>
<p>Ahtisaari’s involvement in Africa began in 1973 when he was appointed <a href="https://finlandabroad.fi/web/tza/current-affairs/-/asset_publisher/h5w4iTUJhNne/content/suurl-c3-a4hetyst-c3-b6-50-vuotta-martti-ja-eeva-ahtisaaren-tervehdys/384951">Finland’s ambassador to Tanzania</a>. At the time, the anticolonial movements of southern Africa had offices in Dar es Salaam, home to the headquarters of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41394216">African Liberation Committee</a> of the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/organisation-african-unity-oau">Organisation of African Unity</a>. </p>
<p>In 1975 he was <a href="https://archives.unam.edu.na/index.php/unin-united-nations-institute-for-namibia">appointed</a> as a <a href="https://www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/about/people/martti-ahtisaari/">senator to the council</a> of the United Nations Institute for Namibia. The <a href="https://archives.unam.edu.na/index.php/unin-united-nations-institute-for-namibia">institute</a> was established in Lusaka by the <a href="https://africanactivist.msu.edu/organization/210-813-508/#:%7E:text=In%201966%20the%20United%20Nations,United%20Nations%20Council%20for%20Namibia">United Nations Council for Namibia</a>, officially inaugurated in 1976. Its mandate was to prepare for Namibia’s independence by drafting blueprints and training staff. Geingob, at the time representing the South West African People’s Organisation (Swapo) liberation movement at the United Nations, was appointed <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/160803">as its director</a>.</p>
<p>At the <a href="https://nai.uu.se/library/resources/liberation-africa/interviews/ben-amathila.html">behest of Swapo</a>, Ahtisaari was appointed as UN commissioner for Namibia in March 1977 and relocated from Dar es Salaam to New York.</p>
<p>In July 1978 the UN Security Council asked the UN secretary general to appoint a special representative for Namibia to ensure independence of the country through free elections under the supervision of the UN. With support of the US-American diplomat <a href="https://www.academyofdiplomacy.org/member/donald-f-mchenry/">Don McHenry</a>, Ahtisaari was again the choice. As McHenry was quoted in Ahtisaari’s <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-mediator/">biography</a>:</p>
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<p>I thought why don’t we kill two birds with one stone. Ahtisaari was clearly sensible to the views of the Africans but he was at the same time very practical and got results. He was, then, the very man for the job.</p>
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<p>Ahtisaari henceforth wore two hats related to Namibian affairs. His term as commissioner ended in April 1982. In 1987 he was appointed as the UN under-secretary general for administration and management on the condition that he retained his role as special representative for Namibian affairs.</p>
<p>In 1978 UN Security Council <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/namibia-resolution435">Resolution 435</a> was adopted as the blueprint for Namibia’s transition to independence. But it was shelved after being blocked by US under President Ronald Reagan and the UK under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. The resolution was finally implemented more than a decade later, after the global realignments following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-fall-of-the-berlin-wall-30-years-ago-resonated-across-africa-126521">end of the Cold War</a>.</p>
<p>The United Nations Transitional Assistance Group (<a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/sites/default/files/past/untag.htm">Untag</a>) was tasked with implementing Resolution 435 from April 1989 to March 1990. Under Ahtisaari, with Botswana’s UN ambassador <a href="https://www.un.org/osaa/content/former-special-adviser-he-m-legwaila-joseph-legwaila-2006-2007">Joseph Legwaila</a> as his deputy, Untag accomplished the mission.</p>
<p>This was due in large part to the skills and credibility of Ahtisaari. As special representative for Namibia more than a decade before the implementation of Resolution 435, he had gained the trust of a variety of stakeholders. This gave him personal leverage, which he was able to apply in critical situations.</p>
<p>Under Untag supervision, a <a href="https://www.parliament.na/constituent-assembly-1989-1990/">constituent assembly</a> was elected in Namibia in November 1989, <a href="https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5fa370c-004f-c92d-0ba3-7b3ca48aab38&groupId=252038">chaired</a> by Geingob. In early 1990 its members adopted the country’s constitution as the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/natlex/natlex4.detail?p_lang=en&p_isn=9565">normative framework</a>. Independence was declared on <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45316527">21 March 1990</a>.</p>
<p>Ahtisaari remains publicly remembered locally by a school and streets bearing his name.</p>
<h2>Mediation beyond Namibia</h2>
<p>Ahtisaari’s merits during his international career translated into a successful campaign in domestic politics. Serving his country in government first as foreign minister, he became in 1994 Finland’s president for a six-year term until 2000.</p>
<p>But his heart remained in international conflict mediation. Upon leaving office, he founded the <a href="https://cmi.fi/about-us/">Crisis Management Initiative</a>, an independent non-governmental organisation.</p>
<p>Ahtisaari played an active role in Serbia’s withdrawal from Kosovo in the late 1990s. During the Northern Ireland peace process at the same time, he monitored the Irish Republican Army’s <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41249341.html">disarmament process</a>. In 2005 he was brokering the autonomy for <a href="https://www.c-r.org/accord/aceh-indonesia/delivering-peace-aceh-interview-president-martti-ahtisaari">Aceh province in Indonesia</a>. The same year he was appointed by the UN secretary general Kofi Annan as <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/serbia/secretary-general-appoints-former-president-martti-ahtisaari-finland-special-envoy">special envoy for the future status process for Kosovo</a>.</p>
<p>Among the numerous honorary recognitions of his role in mediating conflicts, South Africa <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/order-companions-o.r.-tambo-0">awarded him in 2004</a> the Order of the Companions of Oliver Tambo (Supreme Companion) for</p>
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<p>his outstanding achievement as a diplomat and commitment to the cause of freedom in Africa and peace in the world.</p>
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<p>In October 2008 he was <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2008/press-release/">awarded the Nobel Peace Prize</a> </p>
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<p>for his important efforts, on several continents and over more than three decades, to resolve international conflicts. </p>
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<p>Explicit reference was made to his role in Namibia’s transition towards independence. Between 2009 and 2018 he was a member of <a href="https://theelders.org/who-we-are">The Elders</a>. Founded in 2007 by Nelson Mandela, this group of independent global leaders works for peace, justice, human rights and a sustainable planet. </p>
<p>As Geingob <a href="https://www.observer24.com.na/geingob-pays-tribute-to-ahtisaari-as-a-friend-and-a-peacemaker/">declared</a>:</p>
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<p>today, we are not only mourning the loss of Ahtisaari, a friend and one of us, but we are also reaffirming the rich legacy of peace and the outstanding international public service of a Nobel peace laureate with an indelible association with Namibia.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974.</span></em></p>Ahtisaari’s role in Namibia was crucial. But he left a major legacy in pursuing peace in various places of conflict in his later life too.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1792052022-03-16T13:55:59Z2022-03-16T13:55:59ZNamibia badly needs refurbishment after 32 years under the ruling party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452422/original/file-20220316-15-1won945.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hage Gottfried Geingob, President of Namibia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Hannah McKay - Pool/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Namibia has been a <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/423/379">presidential democracy</a> since independence from South Africa <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/namibia-gains-independence">in 1990</a>. Much executive power is vested in the head of state, who is elected directly every five years in parallel to the National Assembly. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-west-africa-peoples-organisation-swapo">South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO)</a> has held an absolute parliamentary majority since 1990. <a href="https://www.oceanpanel.org/node/21">Hage Geingob</a> was elected president of Namibia in 2014, following <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/116/83">Sam Nujoma</a> (1990-2005) and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hifikepunye-Pohamba">Hifikepunye Pohamba</a> (2005-2015).</p>
<p>Geingob was elected president in November 2014 with a record 87% of votes. South West Africa People’s Organisation’s <a href="https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=e9a6b462-08ee-cc3f-6630-7ebf77a78651&groupId=252038">election manifesto</a> declared “consolidating peace, stability, prosperity” as its track record. The party scored a record 80%. </p>
<p>With such election results, Geingob entering his first term in office on Independence Day 2015, was considered a success story. But elections five years later showed signs of erosion. In November 2019 Geingob was reelected with an all-time low of 56% of votes for the presidency. South West Africa People’s Organisation support dropped <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/8638">to 65%</a>. </p>
<p>The two-third majority the party held since 1994 was gone. The fairy tale ended in harsh realities. Geingob’s track record is another example in the textbook on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03056244.2018.1500360">populism</a>, that words alone are not enough. Even executive presidents with a huge majority in parliament and support by the electorate need to deliver.</p>
<p>On this score, Geingob has failed.</p>
<h2>Namibia under Geingob’s stewardship</h2>
<p>A prominent slogan during the anti-colonial struggle was </p>
<blockquote>
<p>SWAPO is the nation, and the nation is SWAPO.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The mantra survived for a quarter of a century into independence. But with the growing number of younger voters born after independence, the struggle narrative became increasingly anachronistic. The allure for having “liberated” the country did not any longer trigger the same identification with the former liberation movement.</p>
<p>Geingob shifted South West Africa People’s Organisation’s centrism in the nation building discourse from “liberator” to “unifier”. As he explained in his <a href="https://www.namibiaembassyusa.org/sites/default/files/statements/Inaugural%20Speech%20by%20HE%20Hage%20%20Geingob%201.pdf">Inaugural Address</a> in 2015:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>No Namibian must feel left out … All of us must play our part in the success of this beautiful house we call Namibia.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He expanded on his <a href="https://www.kas.de/documents/252038/253252/7_dokument_dok_pdf_48512_2.pdf/45cb5729-6a7b-11f3-be1e-14ed68de0472?version=1.0&t=1539649312435">“Namibian house”</a> metaphor in 2017:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nation building is similar to building a house … in which no Namibian will be left out. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>His emphasis on inclusivity was reiterated by the <a href="http://www.nied.edu.na/assets/documents/08Governments/13HPP_page_70-71.pdf">Harambee Prosperity Plan</a> he presented as his governance blueprint for 2015/16 to 2019/20. He explained in his foreword that the Kiswahili word “harambee” (“pull together in the same direction”), </p>
<blockquote>
<p>has been deliberately selected to call for unity and encourage Namibians to work towards a common purpose.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In his <a href="http://www.namibia-botschaft.de/regierungs-mitteilungen/734-dr-hage-geingob-president-of-the-republic-of-namibia-delivers-christmas-message-2015.html">Christmas Message in 2015</a> Geingob stressed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Those of us blessed with abundance should be willing to share in order to ensure that we provide the building blocks for a fairer and equitable house, a house in which all of us can pursue our dreams and prosper as equals.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Harambee Prosperity Plan promised a more transparent Namibia, a culture of high performance and citizen-centred service delivery, and a significant reduction – if not elimination – of poverty. The ambitious agenda was based on an anticipated annual economic growth rate of 7%.</p>
<p>Economic prospects, however, signalled tough times. A sluggish global market caused a slump in demand and prices for the country’s mineral resources. Economic crises in neighbouring Angola and South Africa weakened the local economy. One of the worst droughts in Namibia’s recorded history in 2015/16 should have caused alarm that the “fat years” were over.</p>
<h2>Economic woes</h2>
<p>In 2016 the country entered an economic downward spiral, exacerbated by the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2021 total debt had increased to 70.4% of GDP. Back in 2016 the Harambee Prosperity Plan had reconfirmed the official commitment that state debt should not exceed 30% of GDP. </p>
<p><a href="https://ippr.org.na/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Namibia-QER-Q1-2021-2.pdf">Economic growth rates</a> were 0% for 2016, -1.0% for 2017, 1.1% for 2018, -0.6% for 2019 and -8% for 2020. The average per capita income plummeted by 2021 to 2013 levels. Namibia was diagnosed as an <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/economy-on-life-support2021-04-01">“economy on life support”</a>.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/en/2020-report">2020 Human Development Report</a> Namibia ranked 130 out of 189 countries. Adjusted by inequality its rank declined to 144. As a 2022 <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/09/new-world-bank-report-assesses-sources-of-inequality-in-five-countries-in-southern-africa">World Bank report</a> confirmed, the country is the second most unequal in the world, after South Africa.</p>
<p>More than 43% of Namibians suffered <a href="https://ophi.org.uk/namibia-mpi-report-2021/">multidimensional poverty</a>, measuring various deprivations of poor people in their daily lives. In 2021 the World Bank <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/namibia/overview#1">declared</a> two thirds of the 2.4 million Namibians as poor.</p>
<p>The second Harambee Prosperity Plan, for <a href="http://hppii.gov.na/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/HPP2.pdf">2021 to 2025</a> declares economic recovery as its goal. <a href="https://m.facebook.com/DrHageGeingob/posts/1850203948469420?locale2=sv_SE">Geingob has urged</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Now it is time to hold hands and build an economy that is inclusive and where growth is shared. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the <a href="https://economist.com.na/68445/markets/2022-2023-national-budget-decreases-to-n67-9-billion/#:%7E:text=Finance%20Minister%20Ipumbu%20Shiimi%20on,7%20billion%20in%202021%2F22">national 2022/23 budget</a> shows that there is no growth to be shared.</p>
<p>N$9.2 billion (US$608 million) was put aside for debt services (interest payments only) - the second highest budget allocation, equivalent to 15.4% of the projected revenue income. The total debt ballooned to N$140 billion (US$9.25 billion), and the fiscal liquidity was further restricted. Namibia was <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/110309/read/Swimming-in-debt">“swimming in debt”</a>.</p>
<p>According to a 2022 Harvard University <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publications/faculty-working-papers/growth-diagnostic-namibia">Growth Diagnostic for Namibia</a> out of 17 Namibians in the labour force only one is formally employed in the private sector. Bringing about sustained, inclusive growth amid fiscal consolidation remains a huge challenge.</p>
<h2>Scandals</h2>
<p>In November 2019, the country was rocked by its biggest government corruption scandal, called <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/9397">#Fishrot</a>. It disclosed bribery for fishing quotas awarded to an Icelandic company. Two government ministers and several highest-ranking state officials were implicated. Evidence <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/namibias-fishrot-trial-will-test-the-scales-of-justice">suggests</a> that more culprits benefited inside SWAPO and “Team Hage”. </p>
<p>Another potential scandal, pertaining to the construction of a <a href="http://www.thevillager.com.na/articles/11207/shafudah-kuugongelwa-amadhila-sucked-into-the-bulk-fuel-storage-saga/">bulk fuel storage</a> at the Walvis Bay harbour has been been swept under the carpet. But as just disclosed, a <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/110752/read/Namdia-A-Team-Enriched">controversial diamond valuating deal</a> enriched three beneficiaries by over 100 million N$.</p>
<h2>In need of rehabilitation</h2>
<p>Already an <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20of%20results/afrobarometer_sor_nam_r8_en_2019-12-03.pdf">August 2019 survey</a> by Afrobarometer, the independent pan-African survey network, indicated growing frustration among Namibians: 80.6% of the 1,200 respondents thought the country was going in the wrong direction, 72.6% described the economic conditions as bad, 58.2% believed the economic conditions were worse than a year before, while 47.3% expected them to become even worse. Trust in the country’s president decreased from 81% in 2014 to 60% in 2019.</p>
<p>On Geingob’s watch, the South West Africa People’s Organisation’s downward spiral continues, with a sharp decline in support for the former liberation movement in the regional and local authorities elections <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/8928">in November 2020</a>. The South West Africa People’s Organisation lost its dominance in many regions and almost all towns. The capital Windhoek is governed by opposition parties.</p>
<p>Summarising trends, the <a href="https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-dashboard/NAM">Bertelsmann Transformation Index for 2022</a> classified the country as a “defective democracy”, with limited economic transformation and a moderate governance index. It concluded:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Namibian government faces the mammoth task of regaining the trust and confidence of the public.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This year’s annual budget provides funds for <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/110323/read/Stadium-gets-N$50m-rescue-package">rehabilitating Windhoek’s Independence Stadium</a>. Thirty-two years into independence, it’s not only the stadium, in which Namibia’s flag was hoisted for the first time, that requires significant refurbishment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974. </span></em></p>With a growing number of younger Namibian voters born after independence, the struggle narrative became increasingly anachronistic.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1785482022-03-06T08:22:03Z2022-03-06T08:22:03ZNamibia’s abstention on Russia violates its foreign policy principles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450013/original/file-20220304-17-1v685ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voting at the United Nations General Assembly special session on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the United Nations General Assembly <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113152">took a vote</a> on Russia’s <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/russias-war-on-ukraine-who-is-winning-the-war-one-week-in-1495000?ico=in-line_link">war against Ukraine</a> in an emergency session on 2 March, an overwhelming 141 out of <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us#:%7E:text=The%20UN's%20Membership%20has%20grown,recommendation%20of%20the%20Security%20Council">193 member states</a> supported the resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. </p>
<p>Namibia abstained along with 15 other African states. One (Eritrea) voted against the resolution. Nine did not show up at all. In all, 28 African yes votes (among these seven cosponsors of the resolution) joined 113 other member states in condemning Russia’s aggression. </p>
<p>The voting pattern show that there is no pan-Africanism in practice – as before, African nations do not speak with one voice in global affairs.</p>
<p>Internal divisions are also within the 120 member states of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Non-Aligned-Movement">Non-Aligned Movement</a>. The 1955 <a href="https://www.southcentre.int/question/revisiting-the-1955-bandung-asian-african-conference-and-its-legacy/">Bandung Conference</a> was the cradle for newly independent countries to declare a non-pact position in the East-West conflict. As <a href="https://www.blackpast.org/global-african-history/perspectives-global-african-history/asian-african-bandung-conference-fact-and-fiction/">Asian-African Conference</a> it marked the beginning of a declared in-between-course during the Cold War.</p>
<p>But the misunderstanding that non-alignment means abstention in conflicts holds no water. Pseudo neutrality does in fact take sides with aggressors. Refraining from condemnation of wrongdoing translates such “non-alignment” into not supporting the principles of a global order.</p>
<p>This undermines the credibility of claims to support national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination as a fundamental international order of states. These principles are held dearly in Namibia, where the colonised majority resisted occupation for a century. </p>
<p>As the Preamble of Namibia’s <a href="https://www.lac.org.na/laws/annoSTAT/Namibian%20Constitution.pdf">Constitution</a> declares:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is indispensable for freedom, justice and peace; … most effectively maintained and protected in a democratic society,
where the government is responsible to freely elected representatives of the people.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Taken seriously, this should have required a condemnation of the Russian war against Ukraine in support of the resolution.</p>
<h2>Namibia’s constitution and foreign policy</h2>
<p>On 28 February the <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/human-rights-council-opens-forty-ninth-session-decides-hold-urgent-debate-situation">United Nations Human Rights Council voted</a> to urgently debate the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Here too, Namibia decided, like 12 other members to abstain, while 29 voted in favour and five against. </p>
<p>Namibia’s international relations minister (and deputy Prime Minister) Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/110473/read/Namibia-sits-on-fence">justified the abstention</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Why not abstain? I am saying we are monitoring and evaluating the situation, and I want to draw {your attention} to Article 96 of the Namibian Constitution. That is what is guiding us in handling issues such as this.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.lac.org.na/laws/annoSTAT/Namibian%20Constitution.pdf">Namibia’s constitution</a> is indeed a worthwhile reference point.</p>
<p>Article 96 outlines the country’s foreign policy principles as one of non-alignment. This includes adherence to fundamental value-based norms in the international system. It:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>commits Namibia to the promotion of peace and security,</p></li>
<li><p>stresses respect for international law and treaty obligations, and </p></li>
<li><p>emphasises the need to settle international disputes by peaceful means.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This framework does not condone warfare, invasion, occupation, or any other denial of the right to self-determination of people in sovereign states.</p>
<p>Namibian President Hage Geingob has repeatedly stressed such understanding. </p>
<p>Addressing the UN General Assembly <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/09/1020691">on 26 September 2018</a> he warned that the world had drifted away from dialogue, towards unilateral action. He appealed that UN members embrace multilateralism and stressed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Democracy might have its flaws, but it is by far the best system that enables key values of the United Nations.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>During the 79th UN General Assembly debate on 24 September 2020 he <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202009240678.html">declared</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As a nation that has experienced the outpouring of international solidarity during the dark days of our struggle for independence, we wish to express our continued support for the right to self-determination and freedom of the peoples of Palestine and Western Sahara.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>His statement at the 2021 General Assembly <a href="https://estatements.unmeetings.org/estatements/10.0010/20210923/MBCmdqQ6m0uY/S4bA24joclhF_en.pdf">concluded</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>through unity, we will revitalise the United Nations, transforming it into a bastion of global democracy that will save the world from the scourge of war and reaffirm faith in the fundamental human rights, dignity and worth of each and every human being on this planet.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>One would expect from such unreserved commitment to clearly defined value-based policy, that voting in the General Assembly would support these principles in every context.</p>
<h2>Old ties – new realities</h2>
<p>Namibia’s foreign policy is guided by the slogan </p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331876658_The_Harambee_Prosperity_Plan_Namibia's_Foreign_Policy_Directions_and_Human_Security_Dimensions">a friend to all and enemy to none</a>. This stresses the approach seeking friendly relations with countries in pursuance of the best interest of Namibia. It is guided by an economic foreign policy, seeking mutual collaboration for own benefits. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a recent <a href="https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/el_obeid_mendelsohn_namibia_2021.pdf">analysis suggests</a>, the country has “fair-weather friends” and in China “one all-weather friend”. In contrast to the Chinese and Western economic ties, Russia doesn’t play a significant <a href="https://bit.ly/Trade-stats-Jan-2022">role</a>. </p>
<p>That Russian-Namibian bilateralism doesn’t centre stage is clear from a <a href="https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=e32a7100-f595-9d8a-daec-e0f3e3c65315&groupId=252038">450-page 2014 volume</a> on Namibia’s Foreign Relations. Initiated by the local office of the German Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation with contributions by mainly Namibian scholars and political office bearers it remains silent on Russia. Its section on bilateral relations deals with Angola, China, Germany, South Africa, and the US. </p>
<p>Bonds with the former Soviet Union (in as much as Cuba, for that matter) have left deep marks and loyalties since the struggle days. But Russia has not played any prominent role in Namibia’s day-to-day public culture since independence in 1990. It is more a nostalgic reminder of the exile days. </p>
<p>Namibia’s general voting patterns in the United Nations display a knee-jerk response in refusing to take any critical distance from Moscow. In a Namibian perspective, Russia remains the embodiment of the former USSR as a main supporter of the anti-colonial struggle.</p>
<p>But the loyalty to Moscow is flawed. After all, Ukraine’s independence as a sovereign state came only after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukrainians, therefore, were as much an integral part of Soviet solidarity with Namibia’s liberation struggle as Russians were. Namibia gained independence in on <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/namibia-gains-independence">21 March 1990</a>.</p>
<h2>History should oblige differently</h2>
<p>Namibia’s long fight for freedom also brought about a strong affinity to the United Nations as the facilitator of diplomacy and mediation towards Namibian independence. The government repeatedly declares the UN system as the midwife to Namibian independence. This explicitly recognises the role the global governance body should and could play.</p>
<p>In his 2020 UN General Assembly address Geingob <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/geingob-hails-united-nations-role-in-namibias-independence">declared</a> the fact that the world had averted a Third World War for 75 years testifies to the “success of this great human experiment in multilateralism”.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We recognise the pivotal role this distinguished organisation has played to promote and sustain world peace, and in the decolonisation of Africa. As Namibians, we can attest to this fact, given our own history.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>By abstaining from the vote condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Namibia betrays fundamental values practised by all those in solidarity with – and international support of – the struggle for self-determination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber has been a member of SWAPO since 1974. </span></em></p>Namibia’s refusal to condemn Russia undermines the credibility of its claims to support sovereignty, territorial integrity, and self-determination of all nations.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1571512021-03-17T15:08:10Z2021-03-17T15:08:10ZWhy, 31 years after independence, Namibians aren’t in a festive mood<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390150/original/file-20210317-13-fqjs2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hundreds of Namibians protested against growing gender-based violence in October 2020. The Afrikaans wording on the placard says 'We are tired'. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hildegard Titus/AFPvia Getty Images)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Namibia celebrates its 31st independence day <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/namibia-gains-independence">this month</a>. But Namibians are not in a festive mood. A <a href="http://www.afrobarometer.org/press/trust-political-institutions-decline-namibia-afrobarometer-survey-shows">2019 survey</a> by Afrobarometer, the independent African research network, showed a significant loss of trust in the country’s governance. </p>
<p>Worse: 2020 became <a href="https://ippr.org.na/publication/namibia-qer-quarter-4-2020/">“a year like no other”</a>
since independence in 1990, as the COVID-19 pandemic compounded the effects of a prolonged recession <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/159400/archive-read/Namibia-goes-into-technical-recession">which began in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>The legitimacy of the former liberation movement, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (<a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/history.html">SWAPO</a>), has steadily been eroded due to a combination of factors. These have included socioeconomic decline, SWAPO’s increasingly outdated populist narrative, financial scandals and elite self-enrichment. In addition, opposition has grown in the form of electoral support for new parties. </p>
<p>After independence from South Africa <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/434032">in 1990</a> it won elections by huge <a href="http://www.tfd.org.tw/export/sites/tfd/files/publication/journal/155-173-How-Democratic-Is-Namibias-Democracy.pdf">margins</a>, enabling it to entrench its power. Like other <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-liberators-turn-into-oppressors-a-study-of-southern-african-states-57213">former liberation movements</a>, its legitimacy centred on the idea that citizens owed the party unconditional loyalty in return for liberation. </p>
<p>But heroic narratives tend to have a sell by date. Since 2015 it’s become increasingly clear that SWAPO has lost appeal among the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/60296/archive-read/Born-free-and-in-search-of-political-answers">younger generation</a> as the struggle for liberation passes into history. This generation expects good governance and measures it not in rhetoric but in delivery. After all, they were born into an independent state. Their number as voters is about to become a majority. </p>
<h2>Downward spiral</h2>
<p>The election results of 2019 and 2020 indicated the decline in support for the erstwhile liberation movement.</p>
<p>The National Assembly and presidential elections <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/8638">in November 2019</a> marked a turning point. SWAPO’s National Assembly votes dropped from 80% in 2014 to now 66%. For the first time since 1995, it no longer holds a two-thirds majority. Beneficiaries were the official opposition <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pg/OfficialOppositionNamibia/posts/">Popular Democratic Movement</a> and the new <a href="https://www.lpmparty.org/">Landless People’s Movement</a>, which came third. </p>
<p>President Hage Geingob was re-elected for a second (and last) term with only 57% of the vote (2014: 87%). His votes were snatched by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DrItula/">Panduleni Itula</a>, a party rival posing as an independent candidate. He personified the internal party power struggles. After being expelled, he founded his own party, the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ipcpatriots/">Independent Patriots for Change</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/namibias-democracy-enters-new-era-as-ruling-swapo-continues-to-lose-its-lustre-151238">Namibia's democracy enters new era as ruling Swapo continues to lose its lustre</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The November 2020 <a href="http://democracyinafrica.org/democracy-beyond-swapo-in-namibia/">elections</a> for the regional and local authorities shifted the ground further. In the <a href="https://ippr.org.na/blog/the-changing-political-landscape/">changing political landscape</a> only SWAPO’s traditional stronghold in the northern region suffered limited damage. The results everywhere else were disastrous.</p>
<p>On average, SWAPOs’ aggregate votes in all regions dropped from 83% in 2015 to 57%. In the 57 local authorities the party won only 40% of all votes (2015: 73%). It maintained control over just 20 of the 52 local councils it previously held.</p>
<p>Most urban centres, including the capital Windhoek, were seized by other parties or coalitions. Main winners were the Independent Patriots for Change and the Landless People’s Movement. Notably, the Popular Democratic Movement could not improve its scores significantly.</p>
<h1>Economy on the rocks</h1>
<p>Namibia recorded annual economic growth rates of up to <a href="https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/namibia">6% until 2015</a>. But the global economic crises and the ailing neighbouring economies of Angola and South Africa, in combination with a lasting drought, created severe setbacks. Since 2016 Namibia has been in <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/159400/archive-read/Namibia-goes-into-technical-recession">recession</a>. </p>
<p>The World Bank has Namibia classified as a <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/namibia/overview">upper middle-income</a> country. The annual <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/namibia/gdp-per-capita">average per capita income</a> peaked at US$ 6,274 in 2015 and dropped to US$ 5,766 in 2019. This contrasts – despite the crisis – favourably <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=ZG">with US$ 1,596 in 2019 for sub-Saharan Africa in general</a>.</p>
<p>But the relative wealth is anything but fairly distributed. Inequality remains at staggering proportions. According to the latest United Nations Human Development Report, over half of employed Namibians earn <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/over-half-of-namibians-earn-less-than-n1-400-report2021-03-01">less than US$95 (N$ 1,400) a month</a>. Even among those in paid employment this amounts to less than the average per capita income for sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>The full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/207841/archive-read/Over-12-000-workers-retrenched-in-2020">rising unemployment</a> remains to be seen. Public debt has risen to over <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/govt-debt-rises-to-n117bn2020-05-27/">two-thirds of GDP</a>. The economy contracted by an estimated 8% in 2020 and regressed to <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/94491/read/Economy-to-slump-back-to-2013-levels">2013 levels</a>. Economists assume that a <a href="https://www.republikein.com.na/nuus/tough-decades-ahead-for-nam2020-11-05">return to the 2015 level</a> won’t be achieved before 2024. </p>
<p>Credit rating agency Moody’s <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201708140763.html">downgraded</a> Namibia to “junk status” in August 2017. It has negatively <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/more-junk-from-moodys2020-12-07">adjusted</a> Namibia’s status since then, most recently in December 2020, to three notches below junk. A further downgrade <a href="https://informante.web.na/?p=302250">looms</a>.</p>
<h1>Corruption</h1>
<p>Namibia was rocked by a <a href="https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/sidebar/the-spoils-of-fishrot-tracking-the-property-holdings-of-key-figures-in-namibias-biggest-bribery-scandal">bribery scandal</a> over fishing quotas in November 2019. The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/1/exclusive-corruption-in-namibias-fishing-industry-unveiled">#fishrot</a> scandal implicated two ministers and leading officials of state-owned enterprises. They are awaiting trial in prison. Evidence suggests that other leading party members are also implicated.</p>
<p>Instead of tackling the issue head on, President Geingob decided on an evasive approach. He declared 2020 a <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/196809/archive-read/The-Year-of-Introspection">“year of introspection”</a>. But an increasingly infuriated public witnessed further cover-ups and denialism. </p>
<p>The government commissioned an internal report into shady deals by the state-owned diamond trading company <a href="https://www.namdia.com/">Namdia</a>, but its contents have <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/president-parks-namdia-report2021-01-22">not been disclosed</a> since it was submitted to Geingob in 2018. </p>
<p>Another state-owned enterprise, <a href="http://www.airnamibia.com/">Air Namibia</a>, became a showpiece of mismanagement, using up enormous state subsidies and bailouts while <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/99425/read/Scale-of-AirNams-debts-revealed-in-liquidation">amassing liabilities</a>. It was eventually <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2021/02/11/pressed-by-losses-and-debt-namibia-s-national-airline-folds//">liquidated</a> in February 2021.</p>
<h2>Battle for legitimacy</h2>
<p>As the election results of 2019 and 2020 show, even a dominant party regime needs to use its authority and space to show that it serves the interest of the people. If people feel <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-africas-former-liberators-offer-rich-lessons-in-political-populism-70490">neglected</a>, their loyalty will decline. </p>
<p>Other parties also have to earn legitimacy and show that they are not more of the same. </p>
<p>The Popular Democratic Movement as the official parliamentary opposition party has not gained from SWAPO’s decline in the November 2020 elections. Instead, two new parties – the Landless People’s Movement and the Independent Patriots for Change – are setting the tune. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-africas-former-liberators-offer-rich-lessons-in-political-populism-70490">Southern Africa's former liberators offer rich lessons in political populism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/intra-party-cracks-widen-in-opposition2021-03-12/">In-fighting</a> rages in all parties of political influence. Whether it’s a sign of decline among the established parties or one of ascendancy among the new kids ones, the fight over their future seems in full swing. </p>
<p>New dynamics suggest that the political culture is damaged. Parliament has seen <a href="https://futuremedia.com.na/chaos-in-national-assembly/">physical contests</a>, insults and <a href="https://twitter.com/KalondoMonica/status/1370295633748373505">sexist remarks</a>.</p>
<h2>Lingering question</h2>
<p>Days before Namibia’s independence on 21 March 1990, a poem on a wall in what used to be a compound for contract labour asked: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Now that the Namib sings</p>
<p>And the tear of the Katatura child washed away</p>
<p>Who will keep the fire burning?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>After 31 years of independence, the answer remains pending.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157151/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber has been a member of the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) since 1974. </span></em></p>The legitimacy of SWAPO, the former liberation movement that has governed since 1990, has been eroded amid growing corruption and a deepening economic crisis.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1512382020-12-06T09:57:11Z2020-12-06T09:57:11ZNamibia’s democracy enters new era as ruling Swapo continues to lose its lustre<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372573/original/file-20201202-13-1knov4m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results of the latest <a href="https://elections.na/RegionalCouncil.aspx">regional</a> and <a href="https://elections.na/RegionalCouncil.aspx">local government</a> elections in Namibia show just how much the political landscape has changed in the country since independence from South Africa <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/namibia-gains-independence">in 1990</a>. </p>
<p>The South West Africa People’s Organisation (<a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/index1.php">Swapo</a>) – the former liberation movement that has governed the country since independence – used to win by huge margins. But, increasingly, Namibians are losing trust in its ability to run the country. They are making different political choices. </p>
<p>For the first time, Swapo suffered numerous defeats at regional and local levels of government in elections held last month. The loss of control over several second tier levels of governance and even more on the local level bordered on humiliation. </p>
<p>This increases the influence of other parties dramatically and will have an impact on Namibia’s future governance. The fact that <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/jobs-mayoral-dream-comes-true">Job Amupanda</a>, a social movement activist in his early 30s, is the new mayor of Windhoek’s municipality, points to how dramatic the changes are. </p>
<p>Swapo’s poor showing in this year’s regional and municipal elections mirrors its humiliation in the 2019 national polls. From the whopping 80% it won in 2014, it got only 65%. President Hage Geingob was reelected with a humiliating 56% (2014: 87%). </p>
<p>The results were driven by growing <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/1/exclusive-corruption-in-namibias-fishing-industry-unveiled">corruption</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/namibia-grown-up-after-a-generation-into-independence-but-not-yet-mature-74571">governance failures</a> and <a href="https://www.bti-project.org/content/en/downloads/reports/country_report_2018_NAM.pdf">abuse of office</a>. The lack of good governance and poor delivery has been exacerbated by a fiscal crisis and recession <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/bank-of-namibia-expects-worst-recession-since-independence">since 2016</a>. </p>
<h2>Electoral blow</h2>
<p>Many of the country’s 14 different regions are spatial hubs for culturally and linguistically distinct groups. Their voting behaviour, to some extent, reproduces existing identities. Up until fairly recently, Swapo was the only party with support among almost all population groups, and in the urban “melting pots”. This seems over.</p>
<p>For the <a href="https://elections.na/RegionalCouncil.aspx">14 regional councils</a>, which are the second tier of government, Swapo’s votes dropped from 83% in 2015 to 57%. The elected council members appoint three representatives each to the National Council, the <a href="https://www.parliament.na/index.php/national-council">upper house of parliament</a>, where Swapo currently holds 40 of 42 seats. This will change fundamentally, and it is likely to just secure an absolute majority. </p>
<p>The southern regions of Hardap and //Karas went to the Landless People’s Movement. Central-western Erongo went to the Independent Patriots for Change, which also made some inroads in <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/96962/read/Swapo-loses-29-local-council-seats-in-the-north">Swapo’s northern strongholds</a>. Kunene in the north west went to the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/OfficialOppositionNamibia/">People’s Democratic Movement</a>. Swapo also lost its absolute majority in the central and eastern Khomas, Omaheke and Otjizondjupa regions.</p>
<p>There are 57 municipalities in Namibia. In the <a href="https://elections.na/LocalAssembly.aspx">local authority elections</a> Swapo garnered just 40% (2015: 73%) of votes. It maintained full control only 20 of the 52 municipalities (out of 57) and town councils it previously held.</p>
<p>Most urban centres, including Walvis Bay and Swakopmund, went to other parties or <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/opposition-shuns-swapo-in-coalitions2020-11-30">coalitions</a>. </p>
<p>A disaster was the loss of the capital Windhoek. From holding 12 of the 15 seats in the municipality since 2015, Swapo now has <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/96932/read/Swapo-loses-control-of-Windhoek">only five</a>. </p>
<h2>Early warning signals</h2>
<p>Swapo’s loss of appeal among both <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/96902/read/Ruling-party-bleeds-rural-and-urban-votes">urban and rural voters</a> started with the national elections of <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-11-26-namibian-elections-the-sands-are-shifting-slowly/">2019</a>. It has now taken an unexpected dramatic turn with the regional and local election results. </p>
<p>The results of last year’s national election showed <a href="https://theconversation.com/namibia-is-showing-wear-and-tear-after-30-years-under-swapo-rule-133703">wear and tear</a> on the part of the party. </p>
<p>Panduleni Itula, a Swapo member who stood as an independent candidate, scored almost 30% of votes, personifying the dissatisfaction among party followers. Expelled since then, he formed a new party, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVlQ-H0Xv2o">Independent Patriots for Change</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.facebook.com/OfficialOppositionNamibia/">People’s Democratic Movement</a> more than tripled its parliamentary seats as the official opposition. The <a href="https://www.facebook.com/lpmnamibia/">Landless People’s Movement</a>, a new force, became the third strongest party. </p>
<h2>Self-righteousness and intimidation</h2>
<p>Following the poor electoral showing last year, Geingob reassured citizens <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/ive-heard-you-geingob-president-elect-to-address-nation-tonight">“I have heard you”</a>. He declared 2020 the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/196809/archive-read/The-Year-of-Introspection">“year of introspection”</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, since late November 2019, more details emerged over the scale of corruption in the infamous <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/1/exclusive-corruption-in-namibias-fishing-industry-unveiled">#fishrot scandal</a>, Namibia’s <a href="https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/sidebar/the-spoils-of-fishrot-tracking-the-property-holdings-of-key-figures-in-namibias-biggest-bribery-scandal">biggest bribery scandal</a>. Two ministers and several leading officials of state-owned enterprises were implicated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372561/original/file-20201202-14-47gx28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Panduleni Itula, a former Swapo official, is among the new breed of politicians offering an alternative.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hildegard Titus/AFP via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Geingob’s proclaimed introspection was limited to an <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/swapo-introspection-a-joke2020-07-27">internal self-examination</a> by government, with no visible results. This infuriated Namibians. </p>
<p>Party leaders continued to brush aside the dissatisfaction and resorted to blaming scapegoats. </p>
<h2>Deflection and scapegoating</h2>
<p>Addressing soldiers at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwunrqKtWt8">end of August</a>, defence minister Peter Hafeni Vilho accused the country’s minority white community, supporters of “regime change”, “misguided intellectuals” and “unpatriotic” citizens of being bent on <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/204057/archive-read/Defence-minister-in-white-greed-storm">seeing the government fail</a>.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/204139/archive-read/If-the-shoe-fits-wear-it">linked the white community</a> to all governance failures, arguing that they alone were responsible for the current inequalities. This provoked a rebuke pointing to <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/204363/archive-read/Not-Every-Shoe-Fits-Every-Foot">the government’s failures</a>.</p>
<p>The party’s spokesperson Hilma Nicanor accused “outside forces” of trying to unseat the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/96987/read/30-towns-villages-reject-Swapo">“victorious”</a> governing party.</p>
<p>In mid-October Geingob bemoaned the growing number of whites (estimated at less than 5% of the population) registering as voters. He claimed they intended to support anything but Swapo, and <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/205522/archive-read/Geingob-claims-whites-declared-war-against-Swapo">declared</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>I will not forget that. People are declaring war against Swapo.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Martin Shalli, the former commander of the Namibian army, speaking at a rally in early November, urged the crowd to <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/slit-defectors-throats-2020-11-09">slit the throats of Swapo defectors</a>. Public outrage forced him to <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/96378/read/Shalli-apologises-ECN-still-under-pressure-to-act">apologise on national television</a>.</p>
<p>It speaks in favour of Namibians that such intimidation did not prevent them from voting for the parties of their choice. This makes democracy the winner and Swapo the loser.</p>
<h2>The future of Namibia’s democracy</h2>
<p>Swapo’s downfall from an undisputed hegemonic liberation movement in power since independence means that Namibians are entering a new era. The elections in November 2020 have indeed put Namibia’s political culture at a crossroad. </p>
<p>For starters, it is not yet sure how the Swapo-led central government will relate to the regional and communal governments it has lost to the opposition. </p>
<p>Frustrated members of the Swapo establishment have suggested that the party, which controls the central government, should make the fiscus <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/we-control-national-budget-swapo2020-02-10">withhold funds</a> to financially starve towns and regions governed by other parties.</p>
<p>This stresses the emerging centrifugal tendencies, fuelling regional if not tribal animosities. It is not in keeping with the <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/zoom_in_94.html">“One Namibia, One Nation”</a> slogan from Swapo’s anti-colonial struggle days.</p>
<p>Notably, Geingob dismissed such suggestions, declaring that all those elected into office are supposed to serve all people and <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/97002/read/Govt-wont-starve-opposition-controlled-areas---Geingob">no funds will be withheld</a>. This is encouraging at a moment when Namibia enters a new democratic turf.</p>
<p>The four years on the road to the country’s next National Assembly and presidential elections in 2024 might be bumpy. But democratic hiccups are part of a healthy pluralism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of Swapo since 1974. </span></em></p>The November 2020 local and regional elections have indeed put Namibia’s political culture at a crossroads.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1337032020-03-17T14:30:46Z2020-03-17T14:30:46ZNamibia is showing wear and tear after 30 years under SWAPO rule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320743/original/file-20200316-128091-1el5qat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Namibians queue to vote. Fewer and fewer cast it for the ruling party SWAPO.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Gianluigi Guercia/ AFP) (Photo by GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP via Getty Images)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Namibia turns 30 this month. Its former liberation movement, the South West Africa People’s Organisation <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-west-africa-peoples-organisation-swapo">SWAPO</a>, has been in power all these years and the country has been relatively stable, with a wide range of civil liberties. </p>
<p>But not all is well in the state of Namibia. Despite what seems to be a positive track record, many will not celebrate this year. As President Hage Geingob prepares to take the oath for a second term in office on Independence Day (21 March), the republic is more divided than ever.</p>
<p>The national assembly and presidential elections of 27 November 2019 <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00358533.2020.1717090">were a rude awakening</a>. For the first time, the ruling party massively lost votes. The two-thirds majority secured in the first parliamentary elections in 1994 and consolidated towards an 80% dominance in 2014 melted down to 65%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/namibian-elections-the-sands-are-shifting-slowly-127656">Namibian elections: the sands are shifting -- slowly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For the first time Geingob, as presidential candidate, obtained fewer votes than his party. His 87% of 2014 shrank to a mere 56%. He warded off the challenge by another member of the party who registered as an “independent” candidate, but enters the second term in office much weaker than before. The party faces internal battles eroding his authority.</p>
<h2>The things that have gone wrong</h2>
<p>Recent years have been rocky economically. Fiscal prudence was neglected and despite continued warnings the government lived above its means. By 2016 a full-blown recession kicked in. Populist <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03056244.2018.1500360">narratives</a> backfired. Promises were no substitute for realities. Geingob’s <a href="http://www.op.gov.na/harambee-p-plan">Harambee Prosperity Plan</a>, announced during his first year as president, remained wishful thinking.</p>
<p>Almost a million people (40% of the 2.3 million inhabitants) have been estimated to live in shacks. Geingob <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/185139/archive-read/Shacks-offend-Geingob-wants-them-gone-in-5-years">declared this</a> a national humanitarian crisis and promised to deal with it. No visible improvements have happened since. Over half of the population has no access to proper sanitation and an outbreak of <a href="https://www.who.int/csr/don/15-january-2018-hepatitis-e-namibia/en/">hepatitis E in 2018</a> continues to take its toll.</p>
<p>In his 2019 state of the nation address <a href="https://www.gov.na/documents/10181/802360/STATE+OF+THE+NATION+ADDRESS+BY+HIS+EXCELLENCY+DR.+HAGE+G.+GEINGOB%2C+PRESIDENT+OF+THE+REPUBLIC+OF+NAMIBIA+%282019+04+17%29/24588586-d858-4faf-9929-702ba1e2f25f">he repeated</a> his mantra for</p>
<blockquote>
<p>an inclusive, united, and prosperous Namibian House.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Despite all evidence to the contrary, he confidently claimed</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a social compact where ‘No One Should Feel Left Out’ and where citizens live in harmony as ‘One Namibia, One Nation’. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But after his first term in office the country is further away from this than ever since independence.</p>
<p>Namibia <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/NAM.pdf">ranked</a> 130th out of 189 in the 2019 Human Development Index. Discounted for inequality, the value declined by over a third. Nearly 40% of the population were classified as multi-dimensionally poor – a definition that includes having insufficient access to education and health services, energy and water – and another fifth as vulnerable to multidimensional poverty.</p>
<h2>Corruption</h2>
<p>In late 2019 a major fraud in fishing quotas, known since then as <a href="https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2020/01/06/namibias-fishrot-scandal-from-start-to-present/">#fishrot</a>, made international headlines. It involved the biggest Icelandic fishing company, the Namibian ministers for fisheries and for justice, several high-ranking officials from state-owned enterprises, and lawyers involved in money laundering.</p>
<p>A documentary by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/investigations/anatomyofabribe/">Al Jazeera</a> disclosed delicate details. When the ministers <a href="https://www.icelandreview.com/news/namibian-ministers-resign-following-samherji-scandal/">resigned</a>, Geingob thanked them “for their patriotism and contribution to the work of government”. A few days later they were arrested and remain in custody awaiting trial.</p>
<p>In mid-2019, the minister of education, arts and culture, Katrina Hanse-Himarwa, <a href="https://economist.com.na/45508/headlines/hanse-himarwa-tenders-resignation-as-education-minister-amid-graft-charges/">resigned from office</a> after being found guilty of corruption. But she remains a member of parliament. Much to the indignation of the wider public, she <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/88463/read/Hanse-Himarwa-appointment-receives-backlash">was appointed</a> earlier this year to the parliamentary committee on constitutional and legal affairs.</p>
<h2>Invective no substitute for politics</h2>
<p>Geingob gave his years in office programmatic titles: the year of planning (2015), implementation (2016), rededication (2017), reckoning (2018) and accountability (2019). But planning was not implemented. He has declared 2020 <a href="http://www.op.gov.na/documents/84084/986732/Speech+by+President+Geingob+at+the+New+Years+Greetings.pdf/a367bad2-6ad6-4728-b016-f9204162ccc7">the year of introspection</a>, to </p>
<blockquote>
<p>undergo extensive soul-searching to define our place, purpose and role in the quest for a better life for the citizens of this country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Opening the first cabinet meeting of the year, Geingob <a href="http://www.op.gov.na/documents/84084/973353/2020+cabinet+opening/3f58d312-b639-442b-8a2b-6cb5d966eb64">explained</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… we as a government and as individuals need to reflect through critical enquiries on the quality and efficacy of our work. For example, to what extent have we done what the people required from us to meet their basic needs?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The honest answer as his second term gets under way is that Namibia, considered for many years a success story internationally, has shown wear and tear. The <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/limits-to-liberation-in-southern-africa">“limits to liberation”</a> have poisoned the social fabric. A common Namibian identity, welcomed with enthusiasm 30 years ago, has been perforated by divisions along class and ethnicity, or both. </p>
<p>Cronyism and self-enrichment of a new elite is no prosperity plan beyond individual greed in <a href="https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/8925597">“a rich country with poor people”</a>, as a study by the local Labour Research and Resource Institute dubbed it. The “born free” are sick and tired of politics in which the first and second <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/116/463/284/2760214">“struggle generations”</a> promote a heroic narrative stuck in the past.</p>
<p>While a social, inter-generational contract vanishes, insults are hurled. During the election campaign, the SWAPO secretary-general referred to the independent presidential candidate as <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/195720/archive-read/Who-is-a-Threat-to-Democracy-and-Peace">an insect</a>. His supporters were not shy to retaliate. At a public rally in early March, Geingob was insulted <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/swapo-condemns-insults-against-its-president">as a dog</a>.</p>
<p>But invective is no substitute for politics. Dehumanisation of others dehumanises oneself. This cannot build a sustainable future for democracy and human rights. And it certainly offers no political alternatives. As the local newspaper Namibian Sun <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/lets-raise-debate-levels2020-03-13/">commented</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What the country can ill afford is a political circus that may offer entertainment and newspaper headlines, but which, at the end of the day, further polarises support bases and voters.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the interest of the people, a new social contract for the benefit of all should be the priority. After 30 years of independence, Namibians deserve better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133703/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974. </span></em></p>The hunger, frustration and desperation of ordinary Namibians should be first on the political agenda. But this isn’t the case.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1282412019-12-04T08:55:54Z2019-12-04T08:55:54ZSwapo’s unassailable position shattered: what next for Namibia?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304896/original/file-20191203-67028-zkby3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The results of the Namibian election reflect growing discontent among voters with the way the country is being run. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The level of uncertainty that surrounded the sixth Namibian elections since the country’s independence in 1990 was unprecedented. Held late <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/incumbent-party-wins-namibian-election-amid-corruption-scandal-20191201">last month</a>, the poll combined voting for the country’s president and for the national assembly.</p>
<p>Two issues dominated the debate until right before election day. The first was that an independent candidate, Panduleni Itula, was expected to split the presidential vote for the ruling party, South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo). </p>
<p>The second was a major corruption scandal around the allocation of fishing quotas. This erupted two weeks before the poll, and involved the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/officials-namibia-corruption-scheme-remain-custody-191202140206392.html">arrest of two cabinet ministers</a>.</p>
<p>A further feature of the poll was the controversy around electronic voting machines. Questions around their efficacy highlighted an erosion of trust in the state apparatus. Even on election day, independent candidate Itula continued to express misgivings about this central feature of the <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/apprehensive-of-evms-itula-casts-his-vote">electoral process</a>. </p>
<p>These issues shrouded further reasons for rising discontent in the country. These include staggering unemployment rates, particularly among young people, a persistent economic crisis and gross social inequality. Another conflict-ridden issue is the unresolved land question. These crises are compounded by rising constraints on the state budget. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.elections.na/PresidentialRace.aspx">election results</a> showed voters registering their demand for dramatic changes. This was most evident in the sharp drop in support for incumbent President Hage Geingob. Five years ago he <a href="https://theconversation.com/namibian-elections-the-sands-are-shifting-slowly-127656">garnered 87%</a>. This time he scraped through with just 56.3%, helped by voters in the preponderantly rural north, where he could rely on a loyal Swapo power base. </p>
<p>Itula insisted throughout the election campaign that he remained a Swapo member. Using a loophole in the party constitution, Itula and his supporters apparently hoped to tap Swapo support. His candidature reflected a persistent split in the ruling party, which seems to include ethnic resentment against “Damara” Geingob. Itula came in with just under 30%, after a strong showing particularly in urban areas and among youth, much less though in the populous north.</p>
<p>In the national assembly, opposition parties, including the newly formed <a href="https://www.politicalanalysis.co.za/listen-namibias-landless-peoples-movement-on-its-2019-priorities/">Landless People’s Movement</a>, saw their positions strengthened. The final result gave Swapo 65.5%, just short of a two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution. This was a massive loss of some 15 percentage points against the resounding 80% of 2014. It is the first time that Swapo has dipped below the magic 66% since 1994.</p>
<p>Voter participation also fell, from over 70% in 2014 <a href="http://www.elections.na/RaceForVotes.aspx">to 60%</a> of registered voters. </p>
<p>Swapo’s seemingly unassailable position has been shattered. The outcome of these elections may well go further than a slight erosion of Swapo’s power position. It may lead to a situation where discontent by frustrated voters is channelled into directions other than formal politics. Thus, a latent crisis of legitimacy of the postcolonial state might break into the open.</p>
<h2>Trust in tatters</h2>
<p>But will the result mean that the government deals with the country’s massive challenges? Besides the long-term issues of persistent gross inequality and the worsening crisis of state finance as well as a bleak economic outlook, these also include the interrelated issues of corruption and transparency in government and politics.</p>
<p>A huge corruption scandal over the allocation of fishing quotas broke only weeks before the elections. <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/86051/read/Shanghala-dodges-N$4m-Fishrot-payment-questions">“Fishrot”</a> involves culprits from Namibia as well as Angola, Iceland and Norway. It revolves around kickbacks for the allocation of Namibian fishing quotas, which are given out by the responsible line ministry. Among those arrested are two former cabinet ministers.</p>
<p>Corruption in high places is well known. It’s common cause in the country that fishing rights are dished out to people who are not connected to fisheries in any way, only to pass them on for a hefty fee. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/namibian-elections-the-sands-are-shifting-slowly-127656">Namibian elections: the sands are shifting -- slowly</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The most recent case was unusually dramatic with the arrest of top politicians shortly before the elections. But it’s widely considered to be the tip of the iceberg. Both former ministers were due to be back in the national assembly after the elections, but have now been removed from the Swapo list.</p>
<p>The corruption cases may well add to the lack of trust in the institutional set-up, which appears severely shaken in the aftermath of the elections. </p>
<p>Prior to the polls expectations were running high for the independent presidential candidate and for opposition parties. This was particularly true among young urban people. </p>
<p>Publication of the official results engendered not just disappointment but chagrin. One cause was the delay of more than 72 hours in the announcement of the results. This was despite the use of new electronic voting machines which should have expedited the process. In the event, it increased suspicions about manipulation, adding significantly to these concerns.</p>
<p>The leader of the newly formed Landless People’s Movement, Bernardus Swartbooi, went as far as to call the election results <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/opposition-question-poll-outcome">rigged</a>. He also bemoaned the fact that recourse to the justice system appeared to be meaningless, as the courts had in the past repeatedly sided with the electoral commission, as he stressed at a press conference on November 28 where the present author attended. </p>
<p>For the first time since independence, Namibia’s institutional set-up has been called into question. Within the system, there is seemingly no chance to appeal against shortcomings or intentional abuse. The unresponsive <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/86036/read/ECN-officials-refuse-to-take-media-questions">attitude taken by the electoral commission</a> added to the misgivings. A range of opposition parties have announced they will consider <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/lpm-rdp-claim-daylight-robbery2019-12-03/">legal action against the election results</a>.</p>
<p>Swapo faces serious challenges. The perennial issue of gross social inequality is articulated in demands for land, not only for farming, but above all for <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/index.php?page=archive-read&id=144771">urban housing</a>; the Fishrot scandal has already rekindled <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/86105/read/Namibians-reel-over-Fishrot-revelations">workers’ resistance at the coast</a>. The break-up of Swapo’s two-thirds majority has been hailed by the leader of the official opposition, McHenry Venaani of the Popular Democratic Movement, as a chance to <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/86045/read/Reduced-victory--Swapo-Geingob-drop-votes">“sanitise the debate in the house”</a>. But formal politics also suffers from an inflated cabinet and attendant spoils system which permeates the state apparatus. Again, this is related to a budgetary crisis in the face of a persistent economic downswing. </p>
<p>Swapo’s clinging to power in this election may prove to be the opening of a much more dramatic period than has been seen over the three decades since the much-lauded transition to independence in 1990.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reinhart Kössler has used research funds of the NRF available through his position as a Visiting Professor and Research Associate at the Institute of Reconciliation and Social Justice, The University of the Free State</span></em></p>For the first time since independence, Namibia’s ruling party has suffered electoral setbacks in the midst of economic and political crisis.Reinhart Kössler, Professor in Political Science, University of FreiburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1276562019-11-25T10:21:17Z2019-11-25T10:21:17ZNamibian elections: the sands are shifting – slowly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303196/original/file-20191122-74562-6e4cqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Namibian president Hage Geingob.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Namibia’s South West African People’s Organisation <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org">(Swapo)</a> has performed exceptionally well as a governing party among the liberation movements of sub-Saharan Africa. All contemporary liberation movements that subsequently became governing parties remain in power. But none has managed to retain a similar degree of support since independence.</p>
<p>The first democratic elections for a constituent assembly took place under supervision of the United Nations in <a href="https://www.eisa.org.za/wep/nam1989background.htm">November 1989</a>. Since then elections for a national assembly and the country’s president have been held every five years. </p>
<p>The last poll was held in 2014, when Swapo scored <a href="https://www.gov.na/documents/10181/13120/Elections+Results+of+the+2014+Presidential+and+National+Assembly+Elections/c0734ed6-b4c2-492b-9070-f064cffb8da2">80% of the votes</a>. Its presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, came close to 87% of the votes. </p>
<p>One does not need prophetic gifts to predict which party will win in the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-namibia-election/namibian-president-set-for-re-election-next-month-amid-economic-crisis-idUSKBN1WX1VK">upcoming elections</a>. Despite some setbacks, such as the failures to live up to the anti-corruption and pro-poor policies promised, Swapo will remain the dominant party. But there might be a reversed trend for the first time in 30 years. For both the party and its presidential candidate the scores could decline.</p>
<p>For three decades Swapo’s grip on power has held firm. Its patriotic narrative remains rooted in the official discourse and daily political culture. Two of its liberation struggle era slogans were: <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/zoom_in_94.html">“One Namibia, one nation”</a> and “Swapo is the nation and the nation is Swapo”.</p>
<p>These translated into the false equation that the party is the government and the government is the state. But the electorate gradually changes, and those born after independence from South Africa on March 21, 1990 have become a relevant factor. </p>
<p>Geingob’s <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/189356/archive-read/Geingob-calls-for-unity-shuns-tribalism">increased appeals</a> to national unity indicate that these mantras might be showing signs of erosion. Tirades in the social media show a disrespect for those in power of hitherto unknown proportions and tempt government to <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/190767/archive-read/MPs-divided-on-social-media-gagging">discuss regulations</a>.</p>
<p>For the first time Swapo’s presidential candidate might garner less voter support than the party. This would not only dent Geingob’s ego. It would also weaken his authority during his second term in office. And it would influence the decisions over his succession as party president and head of state.</p>
<h2>What matters</h2>
<p>Unemployment in the age group under 35 is <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/190958/archive-read/Namibias-unemployment-dilemma">approaching 50%</a>. Concerns about this are reflected in the responses of respondents in the latest <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/press-release/Namibie/nam_r8_pr2_land_reform.pdf">Afrobarometer survey</a>. Unemployment was cited as the most important matter (54%). Drought (30%), poverty (21%), education and water supply (20% each) followed. Corruption (16%), land (13%) and crime (11%) ranked surprisingly lower.</p>
<p>The country faces a serious economic crisis on the occasion of this year’s 29th Independence Day <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-wont-be-celebrating-namibias-independence-29-years-on-113748">on March 21</a>. As the local Institute of Public Policy Research concluded in its third <a href="https://ippr.org.na/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Namibia-QER-Q3-2019-FINAL.pdf">quarterly economic report for 2019</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>With elections now on the horizon, the current President and Cabinet must decide what their legacy is going to be: will they reform and reverse the decline of the past five years or go down in history as the people who crashed the Namibian economy?</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Unknown variables</h2>
<p>New political parties, even when created by Swapo dissidents, have never managed to establish a sustainable alternative. They snatched votes from other opposition parties to become irrelevant later on. </p>
<p>This time, the new kid on the block is the <a href="https://www.politicalanalysis.co.za/listen-namibias-landless-peoples-movement-on-its-2019-priorities/">Landless People’s Movement</a>. It was founded after a fallout of the deputy minister of land with the party <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002039719848506">over the land policy</a>. Its aim to secure 20 of the 96 elected seats in the national assembly <a href="https://www.observer.com.na/index.php/national/item/11420-lpm-eyes-20-seats-in-parliament">seems wishful thinking</a>.</p>
<p>How many votes the Landless People’s Movement will garner from a Swapo electorate remains to be seen. It is a force to reckon with in the sparsely populated areas south of Rehoboth. But, like many of the existing parties, its basis is likely to be almost exclusively rooted in a particular regional-ethnic stronghold. Most interesting will be whether its support is sufficient to replace the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/171278/archive-read/DTA-now-known-as-Popular-Democratic-Movement">Popular Democratic Movement</a> as the official opposition.</p>
<p>More challenging than the party competition is the direct election of Namibia’s next president. In a surprise move, the Swapo member Panduleni Itula registered as an “independent” candidate, using a loophole in the country’s electoral act. He adamantly claims to have the right to challenge the official party candidate as an alternative while <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2jbzyTDCDo">refusing to leave Swapo</a>. He uses the analogy of a family feud, which still allows you <a href="https://thepatriot.com.na/index.php/2019/11/21/i-will-take-the-confusion-out-of-them-panduleni-itula/">to stay in the family while seeking solutions</a>.</p>
<p>Swapo’s internal factionalism seems a motivating dimension. Itula has not disclosed the sources funding <a href="https://twitter.com/SebbyJnr_Ndongi/status/1197206568829423616">his campaign</a>. In pre-election polls published by the local media, Geingob and Itula were <a href="https://thepatriot.com.na/index.php/2019/11/15/geingob-and-itula-neck-to-neck-in-early-polls/">neck-and-neck</a>. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, Geingob <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/85621/read/A-thorn-in-Geingobs-flesh">is not amused</a>.</p>
<h2>Contested voting procedures</h2>
<p>If credibility and legitimacy are key, the electoral commission would be well advised to avoid previous mistakes. In 2014 Namibia was the first African country to <a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/multimedia_reports/transcripts/2017-11-22-Namibia_Introduction-of-electronic-voting_4.pdf">make use of electronic voting machines</a>. In violation of the electoral law, these had no paper trails. This was not corrected despite a court ruling.</p>
<p>As investigative journalists <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/194402/archive-read/Voting-machines-go-missing">have disclosed</a>, the electoral commission had “lent” Swapo four of the machines for party internal election purposes in 2017. These have <a href="https://namibiafactcheck.org.na/news-item/anatomy-of-a-misinformation-episode/">gone missing</a>. The news strengthened the already existing reservations regarding the voting process.</p>
<p>The electoral commission has claimed that in the case of a dispute over the results, there will be a <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/paper-trail-has-irrecoverable-errors-ecn">paper trail recording the votes cast</a>. A postmortem paper trail documenting voting, however, is different from a paper trail for the voters to see that they were registered properly for the party or candidate they voted for.</p>
<h2>And the winner is?</h2>
<p>Namibia’s political stability so far has been vested in the dominance of Swapo. Those opposing its control face an uphill battle. If they make inroads, they should not be sidelined by manipulation of the election results. </p>
<p>After all, democratic governance means respect for the will of the people. It makes democracy the winner, not a party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127656/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber has been a member of Swapo since 1974.</span></em></p>Namibia’s political stability so far has been vested in the dominance of Swapo. Those opposing its control face an uphill battle.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1137482019-03-18T13:33:46Z2019-03-18T13:33:46ZWhy some won’t be celebrating Namibia’s independence 29 years on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264331/original/file-20190318-28512-1jnp8ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Namibia’s South West African People’s Organisation <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org">(Swapo)</a> is an exception among the liberation movements that became governments in Africa. As Namibia celebrates its 29th Independence Day on 21 March, it can look back on a period of increased consolidation of power. At the last elections in November 2014 it <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-namibia-votes/">scored 80%</a> of votes for the National Assembly, while its presidential candidate Hage Geingob garnered a record <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30285987">86.7% of votes</a>.</p>
<p>Other liberation movements haven’t fared as well in the role of governing parties. Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF is the most prominent <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-false-new-dawn-for-zimbabwe-what-i-got-right-and-wrong-about-the-mood-100971">case in point</a>. For its part, South Africa’s African National Congress had to part from its two thirds majority in parliament <a href="https://www.news24.com/You/Archive/then-and-now-comparing-2014-and-2009s-election-results-20170728">in 2009</a>; in 2016 it <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-learning-the-ropes-of-coalition-politics-and-its-inherent-instability-96483">lost control</a> over most metropolitan municipalities. It faces tough elections <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-must-offer-more-than-promises-to-win-over-south-africans-109788">on 8 May</a>.</p>
<p>Swapo has not, so far, had to bother about such a loss of legitimacy. Namibia’s system of a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02589346.2015.1005790">post-liberation democracy</a> is a classic case of “competitive authoritarianism”. The term was coined by the US political scientists Steven Levitsky and Lucan A Way. They <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1643146">argue</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…parties whose origins lie in war, violent anti-colonial struggle, revolution, or counterinsurgency are more likely to survive economic crisis, leadership succession, and opposition challenges without suffering debilitating effects.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>They conclude that “revolutionary or liberation struggles also tend to produce a generation of leaders… that possesses the necessary legitimacy to impose discipline during crises”. </p>
<p>Hence,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>new ruling parties that emerged from violent struggle, such as Swapo in Namibia… appear to be more durable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/limits-to-liberation-in-southern-africa">limits to liberation</a> led some time ago to a reexamination of the <a href="http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A241396&dswid=-8883">liberation gospel</a> and its claimed <a href="http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A275566&dswid=-9159">social transitions</a>. </p>
<p>While Swapo continues to dominate, some cracks are starting to show.</p>
<h2>Gerontocracy, crisis and populism</h2>
<p>Geingob is expected to be the party candidate again for the next presidential elections in late 2019. He is 77 years old. Swapo’s political <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/116/463/284/2760214">office bearers</a> provide evidence of the party’s gerontocratic structures. If the country’s retirement age of 60 for public servants applied to politicians, its political bureau and central committee would have different compositions.</p>
<p>Geingob <a href="https://namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/423">digressed from his predecessors</a> Sam Nujoma and Hifikepunye Pohamba, by replacing the image of Swapo as the nation with a wider formula. In his first state of the nation address in April 2015 he introduced the powerful metaphor of the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/137050/archive-read/The-Namibian-House-%E2%80%93-Built-for-All">Namibian house</a>, providing room for all. </p>
<p>But the question about who should be accommodated – and how – remains unanswered.</p>
<p>In 2016 Geingob proclaimed the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/150052/archive-read/Cross">Harambee Prosperity Plan</a>. It was based on an anticipated annual economic growth rate of 7%. At the time Angola’s oil economy was already in shambles, and South Africa had begun on its rapid economic decline. One of Namibia’s worst droughts was ravaging and the government’s over-expenditure had drained the state coffers.</p>
<p>Then a recession which hit in 2017 turned into a fully-fledged depression. The state’s total debt skyrocketed, which led to spiralling interest payments. As <a href="http://firstcapitalnam.com/cms/upload/Namibia%20Fiscal%20Policy%20Analysis%20March%202019.pdf">a local report</a> put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Namibia has been sleepwalking its way into troublesome debt-to-GDP ratios that have increased from 7% of GDP in 1990/91 to 45% to GDP in 2018/19,</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The tabling of the 2019/20 annual budget was postponed twice and is now scheduled <a href="https://www.observer.com.na/index.php/national/item/11031-budget-delay-raises-suspicions">for 29 March</a>.</p>
<p>This has fuelled speculation about what the problem might be. One possible answer is that, because parliamentary and presidential elections are taking place in November, the government wants to avoid presenting a budget that signals the fiscal constraints and asks for sacrifices. </p>
<h2>The art of denialism</h2>
<p>Namibia has problems beyond its economy, too. In his closing comments to the <a href="http://www.mlr.gov.na/documents/20541/283371/H.E+Hage+G.+Geingob+statement+during+2nd+Land+Conference+Opening+Ceremony.pdf/bfc82259-97b6-4ff9-8747-710c4c39f667">second national Land Conference</a>, Geingob said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We need to ensure that we are living in a just and fair society, a society in which the mantra of ‘No Namibian must feel left out’ permeates every facet of our coexistence.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But these are just words. The contrast to be found in Namibia’s social realities is striking; for instance, it remains among the world’s most <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/datablog/2017/apr/26/inequality-index-where-are-the-worlds-most-unequal-countries">unequal countries</a>.</p>
<p>According to a 2016 survey by the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/60701/read/37pct-of-Namibians-hungry-and-undernourished">United Nations</a> 37% of the population was malnourished and 24% of all children below the age of five were stunted.</p>
<p>But only external factors were blamed for this miserable performance. After all, populists are never responsible for failures: others must be blamed, along with circumstances beyond leaders’ control. </p>
<p>Urban squatters living in informal settlements are estimated at almost a million people – 40% of Namibia’s <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/40-of-namibians-live-in-shacks">total population</a>. </p>
<p>In his new year’s message for 2019, Geingob promised to end this humanitarian crisis by <a href="https://neweralive.na/posts/eradicating-informal-settlements-on-2019-agenda">eradicating</a> informal settlements. But he offered no explanation as to how this might be achieved.</p>
<h2>Cracks are beginning to emerge</h2>
<p>Activists from the Swapo Youth League have fallen out with the party leadership over urban land. Their formation of an Alternative Repositioning Movement in 2015 has turned into a relevant political factor. A <a href="http://roape.net/2016/01/18/namibias-moment-youth-and-urban-land-activism">frustrated new generation</a> has entered grassroots politics.</p>
<p>Other tensions have become visible too. A <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/161373/archive-read/You-are-an-idiot">fall out</a> between the Deputy Minister for Land Reform Bernardus Swartbooi and his Minister Utoni Nujoma (a son of Namibia’s first President Sam Nujoma) led to Swartbooi’s dismissal first from office and later from Parliament and Swapo. </p>
<p>Previously regional governor in the Southern/Karas region, he founded a Landless People’s Movement in 2017. It has since registered as a political party that’s due to be <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/184398/archive-read/LPM-political-party-launch-in-May">launched in May</a>.</p>
<p>At a Swapo central committee meeting at end of August last year Geingob <a href="http://www.nbc.na/news/issues-affecting-namibians-are-real-and-should-not-be-used-political-tool-president-geingob">denounced</a> those mobilising around the issue of land as “failed politicians” who were merely looking for personal gains. He accused them of playing with people’s emotions, and warned that they could instigate civil war.</p>
<p>Such rhetoric doesn’t sit comfortably with the image of a “Namibian House” in which everyone has a room to live in peace and stability.</p>
<p>The results of the next parliamentary and presidential elections should confirm Swapo’s dominance. But it remains to be seen to what extent the house’s foundations are cracking. On Independence Day not everyone who cheered the hoisting of the Namibian flag 29 years ago will be celebrating.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113748/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974. </span></em></p>Swapo remains the dominant party by far in Namibia. But it seems increasingly unable to live up to its promises.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1053012018-10-31T12:49:39Z2018-10-31T12:49:39ZNamibia’s long-standing land issue remains unresolved<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241870/original/file-20181023-169822-ls11z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of the new resolutions on land related to Namibia's urban areas, like the capital city Windhoek.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grobler du Preez/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Thirty years of German settler colonialism in South West Africa – from 1884 to 1914 – paved the way for continued apartheid under South Africa. The resistance of the local communities against the invasion culminated in the <a href="https://stichproben.univie.ac.at/fileadmin/user_upload/p_stichproben/Artikel/Nummer33/01_Article_Melber_Genocide_Namibia_draft_FINAL.pdf">first genocide of the 20th century</a> among the Ovaherero, Nama and other groups. As main occupants of the eastern, central and southern regions of the country they were forced from their land into so-called native reserves.</p>
<p>Forced land dispossession continued. Even independence brought little relief. The negotiated transition to independence in 1990 entrenched the <a href="http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A275566&dswid=2400">structural discrepancies created during colonialism</a>. In exchange for occupying the political commando heights of a sovereign state the national liberation movement SWAPO accepted the material inequalities it inherited without any major debate. </p>
<p>Namibia’s <a href="https://www.gov.na/documents/10181/14134/Namibia_Constitution.pdf/37b70b76-c15c-45d4-9095-b25d8b8aa0fb">Constitution</a> was adopted as a precondition to independence. Its chapter 3 on Fundamental Human Rights and Freedom cannot be changed. Next to civil and political rights, its article 16 states that any expropriation of private property requires compensation that is just. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the question of land has been hotly contested ever since independence. A <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.538.3535&rep=rep1&type=pdf">National Land Reform Conference</a> took place in 1991. Its <a href="http://www.mlr.gov.na/documents/20541/290353/Conference+Consensus+Document+%28Booklet+and+Programme%29.pdf/dfa21c58-1112-49e8-b22e-54d09e77cf52">recommendations</a> included the redistribution of commercial farmland, a land tax and the reallocation of underused land.</p>
<p>But meaningful restitution wasn’t implemented. In addition, the buying of farm land was slow and inefficient. Beneficiaries were often not able to use farms they’d got for resettlement purposes because they lacked capital and know-how.</p>
<p>Finally, many beneficiaries were anything but still disadvantaged. Members of the political and bureaucratic elite received preferential treatment. Subsidised by taxpayers’ money, they became <a href="http://ippr.org.na/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Opinion11.pdf">weekend or hobby farmers</a>. </p>
<h2>Second land conference</h2>
<p>More recently there have been increased demands to address the failures of the past; these culminated in a second land conference in early October 2018. But local responses to the final document that was adopted were based on previous experiences – that is, in most cases not much happens after such conferences. As an editorial in a <a href="https://www.observer.com.na/index.php/editorial/item/10517-let-them-eat-cake">weekly paper</a> remarked:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Placing one or two plasters on the stump of an amputated leg, is not a cure.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The government invited more than 800 participants to the conference and allocated N$ 15 million (one million USD$) for the five-day event. Given the overwhelming dominance of state authorities and other official institutions as well as indications that SWAPO tried from the get-go to hijack the agenda, civil society organisations threatened to boycott. At the end, most of them participated merely because it was a chance to voice their frustrations.</p>
<p>The Ministry for Land Reform provided access to most of the <a href="http://www.mlr.gov.na/land-conference1">documents submitted</a>, including those of the first Land Conference. Compared with the 24 resolutions adopted but hardly implemented then, many matters in the now <a href="http://www.mlr.gov.na/documents/20541/638917/Second+National+Land+Conference+Resolutions+2018.pdf/15b498fd-fdc6-4898-aeda-91fecbc74319">40 resolutions</a> were a <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/72030/read/Land-conference-resolutions-Whats-new">modified follow up</a>.</p>
<p>A significant new addition was the issue of urban land and informal settlements. It recognised the demands of urban squatters to affordable housing, estimated at 900,000 people (40% of Namibia’s total population). </p>
<p>Notably, the issues of communal and of ancestral land also received more prominence and there appeared to be a greater willingness to consider interventions. These include the protection of tenure rights mainly in the interest of the poorest as victims of illegal land occupation and privatisation by members of the new elites.</p>
<h2>Reconciliation and justice</h2>
<p>What complicates matters is that land is not merely an economic affair. More than any other issue, land is a matter of identity – for those who own it as much as for those who feel it should be theirs. </p>
<p>Colonialism went along with violent land theft. The current distribution of land in Namibia is a constant reminder that colonialism has not ended despite independence.</p>
<p>History cannot be fully reversed. The structural legacies created under apartheid and the long-term demographic impact of the genocide have left irreversible marks. However, what seems a feasible compromise is to offer the San communities access to and protection in the parts of Namibia which have remained, in their views, home. </p>
<p>The forced removal from land on record since the early times of white settler encroachment would also be a widely accepted reference point.</p>
<p>Some of the still festering wounds can be treated. The recent Land Conference stated on “ancestral land rights and claims” in resolution 38 that “measures to restore social justice and ensure economic empowerment of the affected communities” should be identified. And it proposes to “use the reparations from the former colonial powers for such purpose”. This might offer a way out of the current stagnation in the negotiations between the <a href="https://theconversation.com/genocide-negotiations-between-germany-and-namibia-hit-stumbling-blocks-89697">Namibian and German governments</a>. </p>
<p>As part of the long overdue compensation, Germany should fork out the necessary funds for a just compensation of commercial farmers, whose land was previously utilised by Namibia’s indigenous communities. It then also has to finance the necessary investments – both in terms of infrastructure as well as know-how – that will empower local communities to fully benefit from resettlement. This would be a wise investment by both governments into true reconciliation towards a peaceful future for all people who want to continue living in Namibia.</p>
<p>But such brokerage requires honesty to obtain legitimacy and credibility. Ten days after the Land Conference disturbing news made the rounds. A Russian oligarch, who has been in possession of three farms since 2013, had added another four farms to his <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/72336/read/Russian-buys-four-farms">Namibian empire</a>. This shady deal with the Land Reform Ministry was made a week before the Land Conference, whose resolution 21 stated “no land should be sold to foreign nationals”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974.</span></em></p>The question of land has been hotly contested in Namibia ever since independence.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/899802018-01-22T15:43:51Z2018-01-22T15:43:51ZStability in southern Africa hinges on how leaders gain and lose power<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202402/original/file-20180118-29900-1tmlu4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters demand Congolese President Joseph Kabila step down.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Thomas Mukoya</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While each country in Southern Africa has its own politics, recent developments involving presidents provide interesting contrasts across the region. Which presidents gain and lose power in 2018 – and how they do so – will have significance for the region as a whole, not least in helping determine its continued stability.</p>
<p>As 2018 begins, Joseph Kabila is clinging to the presidency of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), claiming that there is insufficient funding to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/16/delayed-drc-elections-could-be-put-back-further-by-cash-shortage">hold an election</a>, amid <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/53-protesters-killed-over-six-months-in-drc-report-20171121">growing protests</a> against him in Kinshasa and elsewhere. It remains to be seen if he will fulfil the undertaking he has made that elections will be held in <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/kabila-at-un-pledges-drc-elections-but-still-no-date-20170923">December this year</a>.</p>
<p>Other countries in the region start 2018 on a much more promising footing. In Botswana, President Ian Khama, approaching the end of his two presidential terms, is expected to step down in an <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/11/09/botswana-president-says-he-will-step-down-at-the-end-of-his-term-in-april//">orderly succession</a> in April and will be suceeded by the vice-president.</p>
<p>In both Zimbabwe and Angola autocratic presidents who had been in power for almost four decades lost power in 2017 in very different ways.</p>
<h2>Military intervention in Zimbabwe</h2>
<p>In the case of Zimbabwe the country’s army intervened in November 2017 to force Robert Mugabe to <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe-beware-the-military-is-looking-after-its-own-interests-not-democracy-87712">give up power</a>. This came after he had, under the influence of his wife Grace, sacked Emmerson Mnangagwa <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2017/11/07/vp-mnangagwa-fired">as vice-president</a>. The Southern African Development Community did not need to intervene, and even the mediation mission it planned wasn’t required.</p>
<p>Instead, the Zimbabwe military acted, with the ruling party, Zanu-PF, to replace Mugabe with Mnangagwa. It did so peacefully, denying during the entire process that a coup was underway. The 93-year-old Mugabe, in office since 1980, initially refused to step down, but was finally removed both as president of the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2017-11-21-breaking--zimbabwes-president-robert-mugabe-has-resigned/">country and of the ruling party</a>.</p>
<p>The country will go to the polls in <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2017/05/earliest-election-date-july-23-2018/">mid-2018</a>, and Mnangagwa, who was confirmed in December 2017 as Zanu-PF’s presidential candidate, has said that the election will be credible, <a href="http://nehandaradio.com/2017/12/16/mnangagwa-promises-free-fair-elections/">free and fair</a>, but he has yet to confirm that he will allow international and other observers.</p>
<p>With the military more obviously involved in government than anywhere else in the region, Zimbabwe’s opposition parties divided, and with Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/morgan-tsvangirai-seriously-ill-11532872">seriously ill</a>, there is little likelihood that Zanu-PF or Mnangagwa will lose power.</p>
<h2>Angola</h2>
<p>In Angola José Eduardo dos Santos, suffering from ill-health, agreed in early 2017 to step down as president of the country. He nominated a man he thought would be a trusted successor, hoping to continue to wield influence as president of the ruling MPLA.</p>
<p>After elections for the National Assembly in August, <a href="https://theconversation.com/angolas-ruling-party-regains-power-but-faces-legitimacy-questions-83983">João Lourenço duly succeeded Dos Santos</a> as president. To widespread surprise, he began sacking the heads of some of the country’s key institutions. These included Dos Santos’s daughter, Isabel dos Santos, who was <a href="https://qz.com/1130420/africas-richest-woman-has-been-fired-from-angolas-state-oil-firm-by-the-new-president/">CEO of the state oil company Sonangol</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, left, and his successor Joao Lourenco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Manuel de Almeida</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And in early 2018 her brother José Filomeno dos Santos, was removed as head of Angola’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42638761">sovereign wealth fund</a>. Their father’s influence was rapidly slipping away.</p>
<p>In Angola, as in Zimbabwe, a change of leader to one with a more reformist approach probably means that the ruling party has consolidated itself in power.</p>
<h2>South Africa</h2>
<p>In South Africa in December 2017 the leadership of the governing African National Congress (ANC) passed <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1762486/breaking-cyril-ramaphosa-is-the-new-anc-president/">from Jacob Zuma to Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, who thus became heir apparent to the presidency of the country. While there is no two-term limit for ANC presidents, Zuma had brought the ANC into discredit and Ramaphosa, despite having worked closely with Zuma as deputy president, was seen as the one who would curtail the corruption and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-threat-to-south-africas-democracy-runs-deeper-than-state-capture-78784">“state capture”</a>.</p>
<p>For now, Zuma remains president of the country until general elections due to be held by June 2019. The country waits to see whether, how and when Ramaphosa can <a href="https://theconversation.com/ramaphosa-should-end-the-presidential-merry-go-round-in-south-africa-90116">arrange to take over</a> as president of the country as well as of the ruling party.</p>
<h2>A presidential challenge defeated</h2>
<p>In Namibia, <a href="http://links.org.au/node/4190">Hage Geingob</a> had to meet a challenge to his continuing as leader of Swapo, the governing party, in <a href="https://www.newera.com.na/2017/07/10/swapo-elders-endorse-geingob-as-swapo-presidential-candidate/">November last year</a>. He was, however, confirmed in his position and will therefore be Swapo’s presidential candidate for the election scheduled to take place in November 2019.</p>
<p>Geingob supporters now fill all the key posts in his government, enabling him to make policy as he wishes. This is very different from South Africa, where the new ANC leadership remains divided and where Ramaphosa, when he becomes president of the country, will find it difficult to <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/when-will-zuma-go-its-a-matter-of-time-20171224-3">adopt new policies</a>.</p>
<h2>Malawi and Zambia</h2>
<p>Malawi must hold elections <a href="http://www.mec.org.mw/category/Steps_towards_2019.html">in 2019</a> and the contest for the presidency then has already begun. It is not known whether Joyce Banda, the former president and leader of one of the country’s leading political parties, will <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2015/12/30/malawi-why-wont-joyce-banda-come-home-2/">return from self-imposed exile</a> abroad to stand again. In 2017 she was formally charged with having been involved in the massive <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/malawi-issues-warrant-of-arrest-for-former-president-banda-20170731">“Cashgate’ corruption scandal”</a> that was uncovered while she was president.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zambian President Edgar Lungu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters//Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Zambia, by contrast, where the next election is not due until 2021, the question is how Edgar Lungu, who took over the presidency after narrowly winning the presidential election in August 2016, will try to consolidate his power. </p>
<p>In 2017 Lungu became <a href="https://theconversation.com/lungu-tries-to-have-his-cake-and-eat-it-a-state-of-emergency-in-all-but-name-80628">more authoritarian</a>. Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the main opposition United Party for National Development, was arrested on what were clearly trumped-up charges. These were only <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/08/16/knew-hhs-treason-charge-trumped-antonio-mwanza/">dropped in August</a> after interventions by the Secretary-General of the Commonwealth and inside Zambia by the <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/09/20/real-reasons-hh-released-jail/">local Catholic Archbishop</a>.</p>
<p>Lungu wants to serve a <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/11/05/no-third-term-president-lungu-gbm/">third term as president</a>, and the country’s Constitutional Court has been asked to <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/africa/2017-11-10-is-zambia-headed-for-a-constitutional-crisis/">rule on the matter</a>.</p>
<h2>Regional perspective</h2>
<p>Too often developments in one country are seen in isolation from similar ones elsewhere. Given that South Africa is the most important country in the region, how the Ramaphosa-Zuma poser is resolved will be significant for the region. Elsewhere, how presidents gain and lose, and try to consolidate their power, will help shape the continued stability of the region. </p>
<p>Will political tensions be managed internally, as in Zimbabwe in late 2017? Or will they require some kind of intervention by the Southern Africa Development Community, in the DRC and perhaps elsewhere, to prevent them from escalating? Throughout the region, contests for presidential power are likely to keep political passions on the boil.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Saunders does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Too often developments in one country are seen in isolation. In southern Africa events in one affect others in the region.Chris Saunders, Emeritus Professor, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/778872017-05-25T13:35:51Z2017-05-25T13:35:51ZPopulism on the rise as South Africa and Namibia gear up to elect new presidents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169984/original/file-20170518-12254-1siixom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Jacob Zuma, left, gets a courtesy visit from President of Namibia Hage Geingob in 2015 in Cape Town. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Both South Africa and Namibia’s governing parties are set to hold elective congresses before the end of this year. Those who win the leadership contests will each lead their respective parties into a general election in 2019 as their presidential candidate. How this happens will be crucial for both countries’ political futures.</p>
<p>There are interesting similarities and differences between the two cases. As in many other countries, both states have a strong executive Head of State. There are term limits for the president of the country, if not for the president of the party. Both countries have constitutions that provide for a democratic governance structure, guided by the rule of law. </p>
<p>But in both cases the state presidency has so far been decided by the parties in power. Both governing parties came to power after armed <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-africas-former-liberators-offer-rich-lessons-in-political-populism-70490">liberation struggles</a> in which a culture of secrecy and suspicion was widespread. Both had to negotiate a <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/collapse-apartheid-grade-12">regulated transition</a> from a minority regime to a <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/namibian-struggle-independence-1966-1990-historical-background">legitimately elected government</a>. </p>
<p>In both, returned exiles played key roles once their parties were voted into government. The African National Congress <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/">(ANC)</a> and the South West Africa People’s Organisation <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/">(SWAPO)</a> had to adapt to a <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/liberal_democracy">liberal democratic order</a> that included transparency and accountability as part of civic demands and expectations. In both cases the constitutions provided for strong executive presidents with far-reaching <a href="http://www.gov.za/DOCUMENTS/CONSTITUTION/constitution-republic-south-africa-1996-1">influence and power</a>, along with the <a href="http://www.icla.up.ac.za/images/constitutions/namibia_constitution.pdf">rule of law and multi-partyism</a>.</p>
<p>But the two countries have adjusted in different ways. SWAPO has entrenched its political dominance in all spheres of society since independence. The ANC is in decline and faces massive public protest and political opposition. In both cases the state presidents have resorted to populism to pursue their agendas. </p>
<h2>How South Africa and Namibia compare</h2>
<p>South Africa is a complex multi-layered class society with a long history of political and <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/liberation-struggle-south-africa">ideological contestation</a>. It has a strong and multi-faceted <a href="http://ccs.ukzn.ac.za/files/mckinleyconf50.pdf">civil society</a>. </p>
<p>The ANC’s political dominance has weakened. It got only 54% of the vote in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sharp-tongued-south-african-voters-give-ruling-anc-a-stiff-rebuke-63606">2016 local government election</a>. There is speculation that it may not even get 50% in the <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/251032/anc-stands-to-lose-majority-in-2019-research">2019 general election</a>. </p>
<p>Under President Jacob Zuma, the ANC has been plunged into a crisis of legitimacy. The party so far has not showed loyalty towards the principles of the <a href="http://scnc.ukzn.ac.za/doc/HIST/freedomchart/freedomch.html">Freedom Charter</a>, its pre-liberation blueprint for a free and democratic South Africa. Instead it has been seen to support state capture by a <a href="http://blog.transparency.org/2017/02/14/state-capture-in-south-africa/">governing clique</a>. While the ANC fails, a still vibrant civil society is doing what it can to <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/04/05/civil-society-organisations-join-forces-in-call-for-zuma-to-resign">keep Zuma in check</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169988/original/file-20170518-12260-ti1us7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Namibia, on the other hand, with a <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/namibia-population/">total population</a> of less than a twentieth of South Africa’s, has very different social, political and class structures and a much weaker <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201601291383.html">civil society</a>. The old slogan from the struggle days, that <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/swapo-heads-for-victory-in-namibian-elections/a-18091417">SWAPO is the nation and the nation is SWAPO </a> still has resonance. </p>
<p>SWAPO has been in government since March 1990. It has steadily consolidated its political power, securing <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-namibia-votes/">80%</a> of votes in the national parliamentary elections of 2014. Its directly elected president, Hage Geingob received an <a href="http://links.org.au/node/4190">astonishing 87%</a>. Given the party’s overwhelming dominance its presidential candidate will, as a matter of formality, become Head of State for the next five years, with no meaningful opposition in Parliament. </p>
<p>In South Africa, though the Head of State is <a href="https://www.africa.upenn.edu/Govern_Political/SouthAf_Const_6.html">elected by Parliament</a>, he or she is nominated by the largest party. </p>
<p>In both cases the former liberation movements select the country’s next president. There is also a two-term limit for the president of the country, if not for the president of the party.</p>
<h2>Succession politics</h2>
<p>Towards the end of the year, some 400 SWAPO delegates will attend the party’s conference to decide leadership positions and so elect the presidential candidate. Until then a lot of campaigning and even more speculation about party-internal rivalling factions can be expected.</p>
<p>Geingob is in his first term in office. He is, in contrast to Zuma, eligible to be re-elected as Head of State provided he is confirmed as party president. His predecessor as Head of State and party president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, in a hitherto unprecedented move <a href="http://www.lelamobile.com/content/50386/Pohamba-resigns-as-Swapo-Party-president/">resigned as party president</a> when Geingob assumed office as Head of State. Party vice president Geingob then also became party president.</p>
<p>The SWAPO constitution makes no provision for such a transfer, so it’s a matter of controversy whether Geingob is – as his team claims – the official party president or the <a href="http://www.namibian.com.na/54660/read/Geingob-Mbumba-and-Swapo-Constitution">acting president</a>. Though no other candidates have yet publicly declared their intention to compete for the party presidency this year (and by implication nomination as presidential candidate for the country in 2019), there is no doubt th
at <a href="http://www.observer.com.na/index.php/national/item/8083-2017-swapo-congress">internal power struggles exist</a>. </p>
<p>As Geingob qualifies for a second term as Head of State, he may be elected unopposed and unanimously as party leader, unless internal factions put up another candidate. He has recently shown increased eagerness to ensure that his relative comparative advantage as office holder is consolidated. To further anchor a loyal network he has enlarged Parliament and his cabinet and <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2016/03/18/namibias-president-geingob-one-year-on-a-for-effort-d-for-performance/">appointed special advisers</a>. </p>
<p>The upper echelons of SWAPO are still largely dominated by first and second generation struggle stalwarts who returned from exile just prior to independence. There is growing resentment about this among a much <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/116/463/284/2760214/Changing-of-the-guard-An-anatomy-of-power-within?redirectedFrom=PDF">younger generation of activists</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1092&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1092&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169990/original/file-20170518-12217-qfvf0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1092&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>In South Africa, the ANC will elect new leaders at its national conference in December. The official ANC line is that campaigning for the party presidency has not begun. But Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Cyril Ramaphosa and others have already <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-04-26-who-wants-to-be-a-president-a-dummys-guide-to-the-2017-anc-leadership-race/#.WR1sFeuGM9c">started their campaigns</a> to succeed the scandal-ridden and now widely discredited Zuma.</p>
<p>Zuma has a strong personal interest in ensuring that his successor is loyal to him and will keep him out of jail if the charges against him – including fraud, racketeering and corruption – are <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017/04/20/Zuma-and-NPA-appeal-hearings-against-reinstatement-of-783-criminal-charges-to-be-consolidated">reinstated</a>. He has now come out in support of his former wife, Dlamini-Zuma.</p>
<h2>Slide into populism</h2>
<p>Both Zuma and Geingob have recently adopted a more <a href="https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/populism-common-southern-africa-where-former-liberation-movements-have-become-dominant">populist rhetoric</a> in response to pressures within their parties and in the face of declining economies. Growth has come to a virtual standstill in both <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21710824-business-and-government-are-pulling-opposite-directions-growth-how">South Africa</a> and <a href="http://www.namibian.com.na/162219/archive-read/Economic-growth-slows-in-2016">Namibia</a>. </p>
<p>In the wake of this, Zuma has called for <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/opinion/radical-economic-transformation-not-in-good-hands-9118623">radical economic transformation</a>. Along with others loyal to him, he has said that the constitution should be changed to allow for land to be taken without compensation, in the interests of <a href="http://city-press.news24.com/News/land-reform-zuma-moves-for-expropriation-with-no-compensation-20170331">land reform</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, under pressure within SWAPO, Geingob has paid tribute to Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and said that Namibia should learn from how Zimbabwe <a href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/namibian-leader-praises-mugabe-applauds-controversial-land-reform-20170429">dealt with the land issue</a>. A land conference will be held in September, the second since independence. </p>
<p>By year’s end, the decisions taken at both parties’ congresses will indicate which policies associated with the election of the future presidents, both at party and state level, will shape the next few years. In both cases, the challenges are big and the stakes are high.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77887/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Saunders does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africa’s ANC and Namibia’s SWAPO, governing parties, enter crucial leadership elections this year, with presidents Zuma and Geingob both facing challenges.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaChris Saunders, Emeritus Professor, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/704902017-01-08T06:43:47Z2017-01-08T06:43:47ZSouthern Africa’s former liberators offer rich lessons in political populism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150501/original/image-20161216-18030-7xyzpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A mural depicting populist dictators painted onto remnants of the Berlin Wall in Berlin in 2014. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Henning Melber</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political populism is anything but new. Nor are its various shapes peculiar to certain regions or cultures. </p>
<p>Take former liberation movements in southern Africa, for example. They reflect the diversity of populist regimes spanning over several decades. This is evident in Zimbabwe under the Zimbabwe African National Union <a href="http://www.zanupf.org.zw/">(ZANU-PF)</a> since 1980, Namibia under the South West African People’s Organisation <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-west-africa-peoples-organisation-swapo">(SWAPO)</a> since 1990 and South Africa under the African National Congress <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/organisations/african-national-congress-anc">(ANC)</a> since 1994.</p>
<p>The heroic narratives of liberation gospels were born in historical processes expected to achieve emancipation. Post liberation, these processes elevated the anti-colonial movements into governments in firm social control. </p>
<p>The state came to be understood as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-liberators-turn-into-oppressors-a-study-of-southern-african-states-57213">product of the new rulers</a>. These shaped and dominated the national discourse. They considered their power not only legitimate but endless. For example, <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/in_honour_of_founding_president_dr_sam_nujoma_swapo_and_namibias_first_president.html">Sam Nujoma</a>, long-time president of SWAPO and former Namibian head of state, <a href="http://www.africafiles.org/article.asp?ID=24249">encouraged the SWAPO Youth League</a> in 2010 to “be on the full alert and remain vigilant against deceptive attempts by opportunists and unpatriotic elements that attempt to divide you.” Only, then, he asserted, would SWAPO “grow from strength to strength and continue to rule Namibia for the next ONE THOUSAND YEARS.”</p>
<p>South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma, recently asserted that, the governing ANC which he leads, would rule until the <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2016-07-05-zuma-repeats-that-anc-will-rule-until-jesus-comes">return of Jesus Christ</a>. In Zimbabwe, 92-year old Robert Mugabe has accepted a nomination to stand for <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38353298">another term in 2018</a> and suggested he might serve until he is 100.</p>
<p>For Mugabe, Nujoma, Zuma and the like, authority is anchored in the struggle narrative. The <a href="http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2013/07/09/curing-africas-big-man-syndrome/">“big men” syndrome</a> is part of their populism. </p>
<p>And by paying tribute to their peers, they applaud themselves. Namibia’s new president Hage Geingob, for example, has praised Mugabe as <a href="http://www.herald.co.zw/africa-needs-more-mugabes-2/">his role model</a>. Zambia’s late president Michael Sata sang Zimbabwean <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18125980902798573"><em>chimurenga</em> (liberation) songs</a> when Mugabe was criticised in closed heads of state meetings of the Southern Africa Development Community. </p>
<h2>Conflation and excuses</h2>
<p>During the struggle for liberation, the aspiration for self-determination was associated with a better future for the former colonised. But, subsequently, social transformation was mainly limited to political control under which the new elite gained access to resources through the state. </p>
<p>Such transition did not eliminate the colonial-era structural discrepancies. It privileged a few while the majority remained marginalised. A new compensatory ideology emerged, suggesting that the new injustice was purely the result of the colonial past.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the nostalgic <em>a luta continua</em> (the struggle continues) slogan degenerated into <a href="http://www.moneyweb.co.za/archive/happy-birthday-zimbabwe-aloota-continua/">“the looting continues”</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-patronage-and-state-capture-spell-trouble-for-south-africa-64704">State capture</a> has emerged as a new phenomenon.</p>
<p>Members of the new elite like to sing combat songs from the “struggle days” to show solidarity with the masses. They claim that they have not only sacrificed as liberation fighters but now work for a better future for the masses.</p>
<p>Claiming direct succession of the struggle aristocracy by singing liberation songs locates the fight in the past. As the social movement activist <a href="http://www.pambazuka.org/governance/%E2%80%98shoot-boers%E2%80%99-deflecting-attention-new-songs-protest">Mphutlane wa Bofelo</a> diagnosed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They want us to believe that the struggle is over, that all we have is remnants of the old order against whom our anger should be vented. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Frantz Fanon in <a href="http://abahlali.org/files/On_Violence.pdf">The Wretched of the Earth</a> diagnosed “The Pitfalls of National Consciousness” where the new state, instead of conveying a sense of security, trust and stability foists itself on the people, using mistreatment, intimidation and harassment as domesticating tools. The party in power “controls the masses … to remind them constantly that the government expects from them obedience and discipline.”</p>
<p>Corporate family bonds equating the state with personal business include the Angolan <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-luandas-residents-are-asking-where-did-all-the-oil-riches-go-49772">“oiligarchy”</a> by strongman Eduardo dos Santos and his clan. Family connections also played a role under Namibia’s three presidents – Sam Nujoma, Hifikepunye Pohamba and Hage Geingob – not to mention the Mugabe enterprise.</p>
<h2>No longer alternatives to the establishment</h2>
<p>Has populism in southern Africa reached an expiry date among the nationalist leaders? Maybe. What is certain is that the times are gone when leaders of the dominant parties could claim to be the alternative to the established system. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jacob Zuma.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They are the system, and the system is considered to be rotten. Their appeals to populist reminiscences of a bygone era of the “struggle days” sound increasingly hollow. Being driven in the latest makes of European luxury cars, escorted by motor cavalcades and flying in presidential jets to wine and dine with other leaders in the world are a mismatch with the liberation gospel. </p>
<p>At the funeral ceremony for Fidel Castro in Cuba, Hage Geingob praised the <em>comandante</em> for his conviction that “liberation of the oppressed should never be for economic gain, but only to gain in conscience.” People back home reacted with sarcasm: “What we see in Namibia”, stated an editorial of <a href="http://www.namibian.com.na/48750/read/Editorial--Posh-Life-Must-Die-to-Honour-Castro-Legacy"><em>The Namibian</em></a>, “is a total bankruptcy of ideology – talking left, walking right.” </p>
<p>In South Africa the former leader of the ANC Youth League, Julius Malema, now claims the populist space once occupied by Zuma. Malema fell out of favour with Zuma after <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Absence-of-the-best-led-to-Zuma-election-Malema-20150611">supporting him </a> on his way into office and has come back from the political cold with the <a href="http://effighters.org.za/">Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)</a>. Malema can be seen as the new populist on the ascendancy, challenging Zuma’s <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-02-05-jacob-zuma-and-julius-malema-a-collision-course-made-in-nkandla/#.WG9NWBt9600">“corrupt establishment”</a>. </p>
<p>The decay now is represented by <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-patronage-and-state-capture-spell-trouble-for-south-africa-64704">Zuma and his cohorts</a>. While they campaigned for a better future, their plunder of state controlled assets turned their populist rhetoric into a mockery of the people. But there are reasons to remain sceptical, that the new kids on the block are the true alternative they claim to be. Once in power, they might just turn out as old wine in new bottles, once again betraying those who trusted them to deliver. </p>
<p>The legitimacy and credibility of those in power has been eroded by bad governance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ancs-path-to-corruption-was-set-in-south-africas-1994-transition-64774">predatory networks</a> and the obsession to claim an exclusive agency representing the people. Their way out is the conspiracy theory: those in opposition to their continued abuse of offices are accused of being agents of Western imperialism tasked to initiate regime change. Zuma even identifies witches as part of a <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/143895/this-is-who-zuma-is-blaming-for-the-political-instability-in-south-africa/">“third force” conspiracy</a>. </p>
<p>Tinyiko Maluleke, a professor at the University of Pretoria posed an interesting question:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Haven’t we had in Jacob Zuma our own Donald Trump in advance?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He continued: “I think Jacob Zuma could teach Donald Trump a thing or two. And if I were Trump, I would seek to learn as much as possible from the rise and especially the imminent fall of Zuma.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974.</span></em></p>The legitimacy and credibility of those in power has been eroded by bad governance, patronage and the obsession to claim an exclusive agency representing the people.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.