tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/kelly-odwyer-14939/articlesKelly O'Dwyer – The Conversation2019-01-25T02:10:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1105002019-01-25T02:10:23Z2019-01-25T02:10:23ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Morrison’s first political plays of 2019<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L0py-t7CLqw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in Australian politics. They discuss Scott Morrison’s decision to install former Labor president Warren Mundine as the candidate for the ultra-marginal NSW seat of Gilmore, Kelly O'Dwyer’s announcement that she would not be contesting the next election, and the government’s Australia Day plan to force councils to conduct citizenship ceremonies on January 26 or have their right to do so at all revoked.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deep Saini speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in Australian politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101742019-01-22T18:36:11Z2019-01-22T18:36:11ZAustralia can do more to attract and keep women in parliament – here are some ideas<p>The resignation of Kelly O'Dwyer, Federal Minister for Women, Jobs and Industrial Relations, tells us what we have known for some time: Australia’s parliament is a hostile workplace for women and working mothers.</p>
<p>O'Dwyer’s desire for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-19/kelly-odwyer-quitting-federal-parliament/10729102">bigger family</a> and more quality time with her young children reflects, in some respects, the challenges ordinary working mothers in Australia face everyday. It also highlights yet another example of the difficulties faced by women in politics. </p>
<p>As Liberal senator Linda Reynolds <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/kelly-o-dwyer-s-resignation-is-a-parent-issue-20190120-p50sir.html">wrote in an opinion piece</a>: O'Dwyer’s resignation “ …is not simply a gender issue. It is a parent issue”.</p>
<p>But for every <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-02/member-for-perth-tim-hammond-resigns-from-politics/9718606">Tim Hammond</a> (the federal Labor Member for Perth who quit politics last year for family reasons) there is a Kelly O'Dwyer or a <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/labor-mp-kate-ellis-quits-politics-frontbencher-wont-run-at-next-federal-election-to-spend-more-time-with-family-in-adelaide/news-story/99e5338c303b5f142d01740920a14e90?nk=4b8e5e6aae697ea9eb854e411dff99f4-1548108052">Kate Ellis </a>. </p>
<p>Women by and large are still the primary caregivers in this country regardless of whether they are an MP or senator. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-liberal-party-is-failing-women-miserably-compared-to-other-democracies-and-needs-quotas-110172">The Liberal Party is failing women miserably compared to other democracies, and needs quotas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Institutionally, Australia’s parliament has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0910/10rp09">made significant progress</a> over the past decade to accommodate parents. Parliament House now has childcare services and a breastfeeding room off to the side of both chambers for new mothers. </p>
<p>Breastfeeding mothers can vote by proxy in the House of Representations. And in 2017, former Greens Senator <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-23/larissa-waters-breastfeeds-while-putting-forward-motion-senate/8645100">Larissa Waters</a> became the first federal MP to breastfeed in parliament. </p>
<p>But there is still progress to be made. Parliament remains family-unfriendly. Sitting hours often extend well beyond childcare hours and sitting weeks are often scheduled during school holidays. </p>
<h2>Fewer options than other working women</h2>
<p>These issues affect all working parents but must surely impact heavily on parliamentarians who have to travel from their electorates to Canberra. Ordinary working mothers <a href="https://tasa.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Craig-Lyn-and-Powell-Abigail.pdf">often opt for part-time work</a> to manage the demands of work and family. This is because we haven’t quite figured out how to help women and families best manage their competing workloads.</p>
<p>An MP or senator does not have the option of working part-time. While women politicians do take maternity leave, a part-time MP or senator might not meet community expectations about politicians and service. We also know women in part-time work often end up feeling <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-pressure-may-be-a-better-way-to-measure-work-life-balance-50199">more stressed</a> as they take on more domestic work or end up working outside of their set part-time hours.</p>
<p>But the idea of job sharing seems less remote. Historically, job sharing, which involves two people sharing what is normally a full-time role, has been seen as an alternative way for women to stay in the workforce. Some <a href="http://www.5050foundation.edu.au/assets/reports/documents/Fawcett-Job-sharing.pdf">preliminary research</a> in the UK suggests that might be a viable option for politicians. And <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/work/how-two-women-became-ceos-through-job-sharing/">evidence</a> shows it works at the highest level of business, so this is perhaps one way parliaments can learn from the business community. </p>
<p>However, like all flexible working arrangements, job sharing cannot be seen as a solution or alternative for women alone – swapping the political sphere for the private. Male politicians with children would need to be encouraged to adopt these arrangements should they ever eventuate. And getting men to take up flexible working arrangements is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fathers-of-newborns-failing-to-take-up-paid-leave-scheme-20170427-gvu451.html">not always successful</a> as evidenced by policymakers’ attempts to get new dads to take up parental leave.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/time-pressure-may-be-a-better-way-to-measure-work-life-balance-50199">Time pressure may be a better way to measure work-life balance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As we enter the next decade, politicians, political parties and the parliament should consider how best to support working mothers (and fathers). </p>
<p>This must begin with a shift in culture. In her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/julia-banks-full-statement-to-the-house-of-representatives-20181127-p50imq.html">resignation speech</a>, former Liberal now Independent, Julia Banks, stated:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>equal representation of men and women in this parliament is an urgent imperative which will create a culture change. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Advances towards equal representation are lopsided in the parliament. While Labor is on track to reach equal representation with almost half of its parliamentarians women, the Coalition’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-11/liberal-women-quotas/10230298">ratio is only one in five</a>. It’s expected with O'Dwyer’s resignation <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-17/liberal-mp-ann-sudmalis-to-quit-politics-at-next-election/10254602">along with recent announcements</a> by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-17/liberal-mp-ann-sudmalis-to-quit-politics-at-next-election/10254602">other women</a>, female representation in the Liberal and National parties will be proportionally <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-06/fact-check-liberal-women-in-parliament/9796976">lower</a> than when John Howard left office in 2007. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1084670010432221184"}"></div></p>
<p>Regardless of political persuasion, fewer female MPs can only slow progress towards gender equality.</p>
<p>Tim Hammond’s experience is an example of the toll experienced by fathers in federal parliament, but this is still the exception rather than the rule. Greater female representation will help shift cultural ideas about women and working mothers. </p>
<p>But shifts in ideas about working fathers in parliament are needed too. Images of male politicians working with their children at their side is a rarity saved only for election campaigns. </p>
<p>Like ordinary working women, female politicians need not only supportive workplaces but supportive families. Former Queensland <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/female-mps-need-an-extraordinarily-supportive-partner-to-thrive-20190121-h1ab29">premier Anna Bligh</a> relied on her partner and mother for support during her time in office. However, not every female politician has a Greg Withers or a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/25/new-zealands-first-baby-neve-makes-history-united-nations-debut/">Clarke Gayford</a>, partner of New Zealand prime minster Jacinda Arden, to care for their children while their partner gives a speech to the United Nations. </p>
<h2>Ideas from other nations</h2>
<p>Jacinda Arden provides one example of greater flexibility for mothers who are parliamentarians. She has broken up her schedule into <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/a-baby-in-parliament-nz-pm-on-motherhood">three-hour slots</a> so she can breastfeed. But not every woman in parliament has as much control over her schedule as a prime minister. </p>
<p>New Zealand is perhaps leading the pack in making parliaments work for parents. Recently, the <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/06/what-it-s-like-having-a-baby-at-parliament.html">Speaker of the New Zealand parliament</a> has sought to make it even more family-friendly with a raft of measures, including the installation of highchairs in the cafe and a playground. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-only-a-baby-right-prime-ministers-women-and-parenthood-104180">It's only a baby, right? Prime ministers, women and parenthood</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In Europe, things are also progressive with women politicians in the European Parliament – including most famously Italian MEP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/24/licia-ronzulli-baby-parliament">Licia Ronzulli</a> – taking their children to parliamentary debates and meetings. </p>
<p>In the US, the <a href="https://www.workingmother.com/number-working-moms-in-congress-will-double-in-2019">number of mothers</a> in congress has doubled following the mid-term elections in 2018, which saw a record number of women run for office. Last year, Tammy Duckworth of Illinois became the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/duckworth-makes-history-baby-s-debut-senate-floor-n867551">first senator</a> to have a baby in office, which necessitated changes to allow a baby on the senate floor. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"987004054571241472"}"></div></p>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/05/01/congress-tammy-duckworth-women-give-birth-in-office-history-218113">ten women</a> have given birth while in Congress and of those, six in the last 11 years. </p>
<p>The presence of children, especially mothers breastfeeding in parliamentary chambers, continues to be <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/parents-being-parents-in-politics_us_56a13965e4b0404eb8f0b48b">worldwide news</a>, suggesting it’s still a novelty. Japanese local government member, Yuka Ogata, has a number of times <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/01/japanese-politician-thrown-out-of-meeting-for-sucking-cough-drop-yuka-ogata-breastfeeding-row">been forced</a> to leave the assembly as irritation grows around her demanding more family-friendly policies.</p>
<p>At the press conference announcing O'Dwyer’s resignation, the prime minister said he supported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] all women’s choices. I want women to have more choices and all the independence that comes with that.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But choices are always made in the context of individuals’ lives. This is especially true for women who are working mothers. To ensure they make the choice to enter and stay in parliament we must ensure these issues are addressed. </p>
<p>It’s important parliament be made up of working mothers so policies and laws that affect families and in particular working women are informed by those who experience these challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Churchill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s parliament has become more family-friendly in the last decade, but women with families are still finding it tough. Other democracies can provide some inspiration.Brendan Churchill, Research Fellow in Sociology, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101722019-01-21T18:41:16Z2019-01-21T18:41:16ZThe Liberal Party is failing women miserably compared to other democracies, and needs quotas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254691/original/file-20190121-100279-1g2j4wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kelly O'Dwyer last week announced she would not be re-contesting her seat of Higgins at the 2019 elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Ellen Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Look around the world this week and you see women exercising power and influence everywhere. In the United States, House Speaker <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/why-nancy-pelosi-wont-compromise-border-wall/580516/">Nancy Pelosi is wrangling US President Donald Trump</a> over his shutdown of federal government. In the UK, Prime Minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/20/theresa-may-cross-party-consensus-brexit-backstop-tory-split">Theresa May doggedly pursues Brexit</a>. Yvette Cooper, chair of the British Parliament’s Home Affairs Select Committee and described by some as <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-theresa-may-second-referendum-vote-election-yvette-cooper-a8736216.html">the Labour opposition’s “alternative leader”, is bringing forward legislation</a> to try to head off a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-hard-soft-what-is-the-difference-uk-eu-single-market-freedom-movement-theresa-may-a7342591.html">“hard” Brexit</a>.</p>
<p>In Germany, CDU leader and likely Angela Merkel successor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/18/germany-politicians-business-leaders-letter-brexit-the-times">Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer co-authored a public letter to the British people</a> urging them to remain in the European Union. And from New Zealand, Prime Minister <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/20/whatever-britain-decides-new-place-world-new-zealand-stands/">Jacinda Ardern wrote a comment piece</a> for the London <em>Telegraph</em> expressing solidarity whichever way Britain goes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-she-prepares-to-leave-politics-germanys-angela-merkel-has-left-her-mark-at-home-and-abroad-105957">As she prepares to leave politics, Germany's Angela Merkel has left her mark at home and abroad</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And in Australia? Reportage involving senior women in politics is dominated by Morrison government cabinet minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-odwyers-decision-turns-the-spotlight-onto-bishop-110159">Kelly O’Dwyer quitting</a> her prime Melbourne seat of Higgins, fellow Liberal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fresh-talent-liberal-senator-jane-hume-bails-out-of-race-to-replace-kelly-o-dwyer-20190121-p50slm.html">Senator Jane Hume ruling out running for it</a>, and speculation about <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/19/rumours-of-julie-bishop-quitting-parliament/">whether or not former Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will, like O’Dwyer, quit politics</a> at the forthcoming federal election too. It is a sharp contrast. What is going on?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-odwyers-decision-turns-the-spotlight-onto-bishop-110159">View from The Hill: O'Dwyer's decision turns the spotlight onto Bishop</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The UK has already had two female prime ministers in May (since 2016) and Margaret Thatcher (1979-1990) – the latter, after Winston Churchill, the most significant British prime minister of the 20th century. This is not to say politics is easy for women in Britain – far from it. Political <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-faces-more-gender-based-abuse-than-jeremy-corbyn-report/">attacks on May are three-times as likely to be gender-based</a> as those on Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-stupid-woman.html">Claims Corbyn called May a “stupid woman” in parliament</a> got traction because of the widely perceived implicit sexism of Corbyn-era Labour, which tends to be overshadowed by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45030552">controversy over its more blatant antisemitism</a>. Female MPs come under sustained social media attacks of the most violent and reprehensible kind, something Labour’s Yvette Cooper and Jess Phillips have campaigned against prominently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jul/28/yvette-cooper-twitter-response-rape-threats">again</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/18/vile-online-abuse-against-women-mps-needs-to-be-challenged-now">again</a>.</p>
<p>It is in this climate that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/thomas-mair-found-guilty-of-jo-cox-murder">Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered</a> by white supremacist Thomas Mair during the Brexit referendum campaign in 2016.</p>
<p>But while politics is incredibly tough for women in Britain, they hang in and fight on, across the political spectrum. This is because in Britain women’s presence in politics has been normalised. There’s no sending them back to the kitchen. To an extent which should not be necessary, they are battle-hardened. Male opponents know they will not go away.</p>
<p>Equally in the US, women in politics will not be seen off. The pronounced misogyny of President Donald Trump stirred rather than cowed women who stormed the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/18/record-number-women-in-congress/">creating an all-time high in congresswomen’s numbers</a>.</p>
<p>Democrat Nancy Pelosi prevailed against significant internal challenge and external opposition to be elected Speaker. From this position she is prominently calling Trump’s bluff and, since the government shutdown, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pelosi-is-winning-battle-with-trump-because-she-s-better-at-her-job-20190121-p50skx.html">bettering him in the rhetorical struggle for decent government</a>.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, women in politics has long been business as usual. Ardern, elected in 2017, is the country’s third woman prime minister after Helen Clark (1999-2008) and Jenny Shipley (1997-1999). One could go on and on, citing the normalisation of women in politics in Sri Lanka, India, Israel, Iceland, Denmark, Pakistan, Indonesia, Canada, Germany and elsewhere.</p>
<p>Women have, often with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/quotas-are-not-pretty-but-they-work-liberal-women-should-insist-on-them-103517">help of quotas</a>, been accepted as regulars in political battle in all these places, sometimes rising to the political equivalent of generals and supreme commanders just like the men, many of whom might not like it but know it is an inescapable – and, in fact, reasonable - part of contemporary life.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/quotas-are-not-pretty-but-they-work-liberal-women-should-insist-on-them-103517">Quotas are not pretty but they work – Liberal women should insist on them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The military metaphor is unfortunate, but in this context useful to explain through analogy what is going on by contrast with women in the senior levels of the Morrison government.</p>
<p>May and Pelosi are playing the long game – operating strategically – in pursuit of specific political outcomes irrespective of the extra, gendered-tier of political attack to which they are subject. They do this in the confidence that women in their parties and parliaments are political “regulars”, in the business of politics for good.</p>
<p>In Australia, the presence of women in politics has been normalised other than in the Liberal and National parties. Labor’s Julia Gillard was prime minister from 2010 to 2013. If Labor’s sustained poll lead holds through to election day, Opposition deputy-leader Tanya Plibersek is likely to become deputy prime minister this year. The Greens have been, and before them the Australian Democrats were more often than not, led by women. Australia’s flagship far right-winger, Pauline Hanson, is a woman. </p>
<p>But to be a woman in the Liberal or National parties is still to be a political “irregular” – one of a group of resented interlopers, tiny in number, whom many male colleagues hope can be driven away.</p>
<p>Female LNP leavers manifest this – not just O’Dwyer and, likely, the prominently-snubbed Bishop when her decision finally crystallises – but those like Julia Banks who have <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-julia-banks-defects-to-crossbench-as-scott-morrison-confirms-election-in-may-107715">left the Liberal Party</a> and gone to the crossbench, and Liberal fellow travellers like Cathy McGowan and Kerryn Phelps who sit as independents alongside her. </p>
<p>It seems the position of women in the Liberal and National parties is too fragile, too brittle, for them to stand and fight like regulars. Rather, like guerillas on the wrong end of the power asymmetry women face within the Morrison government, they are withdrawing from the battlefield. It will be up to others to stand and fight another day. </p>
<p>That fight cannot be won without critical mass. Women in the Liberal and National parties need to embrace quotas and they need to do it now. They will never be numerous enough to achieve the status of “regulars” reached by women in most of the rest of the democratic world otherwise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110172/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wallace receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>The departure of Liberal women is a sign that they have always been outsiders within the party, and by world standards the gender imbalance is stark and woefully out of touch.Chris Wallace, ARC DECRA Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101582019-01-20T18:55:12Z2019-01-20T18:55:12ZLiberals lose yet another high-profile woman, yet still no action on gender<p>Liberal women must surely be asking why their party is so clear-eyed when facilitating the departure of competent women, and yet so mealy-mouthed about recruiting and promoting them.</p>
<p>Prominent among Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s comments on Kelly O’Dwyer’s retirement to pursue family life, was to say he <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/kelly-odwyer-reveals-heartbreaking-reason-why-shes-leaving-politics/news-story/b00a502beaec61badbef174d77b797cd">supported his minister’s decision</a>, and indeed supported all such choices by women.</p>
<p>Such clarity has been conspicuously absent from the Liberal Party’s leadership since its now widely accepted “women” problem came to the fore in 2018 amid claims of bullying, implied career threats, ingrained gender bias, and other generally oafish behaviour.</p>
<p>Even more opaque has been the Liberal Party’s puzzling refusal to broach any corrective action to address a powerful internal preference for men, when selecting candidates in winnable seats. This, despite a miserable return of just 13 female MPs of its 76 in the lower house after the 2016 election.</p>
<p>It is even worse now, and voters are on to it.</p>
<h2>Not the first such departure</h2>
<p>O’Dwyer is the second female Liberal from Victoria to call it quits in six months after her friend, the talented rookie backbencher Julia Banks, spectacularly called time on the party in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s brutal ouster.</p>
<p>Banks went to the cross bench to form a quartet of competent female moderates with past ties or sympathies to the centre-right – Banks, Kerryn Phelps, Rebekha Sharkie, and Cathy McGowan.</p>
<p>There have been other high-profile departures this term also on family grounds with two frontbenchers on the Labor side – former minister Kate Ellis, and rising star Tim Hammond – both bowing out.</p>
<p>That federal politics is hard on families and relationships is hardly news, but the slew of resignations / defections underscores how little has been done to change things.</p>
<h2>And poignant, given her portfolio</h2>
<p>In any event, O’Dwyer’s retreat is arguably the most pointed given the current debate, her particular government portfolio, her hard-won ministerial seniority, and her party’s woes.</p>
<p>It makes Liberal retention of her previously safe Melbourne seat of Higgins somewhere between problematic and unlikely.</p>
<p>On the social media platform Twitter where cynicism and vitriol flows freely from people hiding behind false identities, her departure has been met with some appallingly personal abuse, exaggerated outrage, and claims she was merely a rat leaving a sinking ship.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1086764357831151616"}"></div></p>
<p>It is true that retaining the seat would have been no certainty even with O’Dwyer still as the candidate, especially given Victoria’s recent anti-conservative tendencies in state election races, but with a new candidate, the Liberal jewel is undoubtedly more vulnerable.</p>
<p>Feminists will be aggrieved to see another senior woman go but they might also be quietly disappointed in her stated reasons. </p>
<p>In contradistinction to some of her predecessors, O’Dwyer, did substantive work as minister for women, and unlike some, gave the impression of actually believing in the mission.</p>
<p>She also garnered respect from across the aisle and within the press gallery as a person of warmth and humility – stand-out qualities on Capital Hill.</p>
<h2>It is a portfolio she believed in</h2>
<p>O'Dwyer created enemies however on her party’s increasingly reactionary right flank by outlining the challenges for women – especially in politics – acknowledging the Liberal Party’s poor image in some quarters. </p>
<p>She was even reputed to have told colleagues they were seen as a bunch of <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/minister-kelly-o-dwyer-lashes-homophobic-anti-women-liberals-in-her-party">“homophobic, anti-women, climate change deniers”</a>.</p>
<p>Her introduction of a women’s economic security statement last year was another material achievement resisted by some as political correctness.</p>
<p>But in declaring her job’s incompatibility with family life, there was an unmistakable note of resignation, even defeat in O’Dwyer’s “choice”. And coming from the minister most directly involved in remediating that problem for women, her resignation cannot help but reinforce the message that politics may well be no place for women.</p>
<p>Morrison’s superficially virtuous support for the choices for women, was no help either - typical of much conservative sophistry around this whole issue.</p>
<h2>Morrison isn’t helping</h2>
<p>Masquerading as a pro-choice feminist while endorsing a senior colleague’s decision to give up her career for child-rearing and home duties takes some chutzpah.</p>
<p>An alternative approach might have been to lament her departure as symptomatic of a flawed representational system, acknowledge the failure of politics to renovate its male paradigm, and vow to change the culture in material ways.</p>
<p>It might even be called leadership.</p>
<p>For a government laced with longstanding (if undeclared) quotas for ministerial selection – think ratios in the ministry applied to the number of Libs to Nats, House to Senate, moderates to conservatives, and even between states – the blind spot over women’s under-representation and the philosophical objection to corrective action (quotas) is all the more bizarre.</p>
<p>It is a mark of how far conservative Liberals have drifted from contemporary public attitudes and even their own philosophy that some would countenance re-nationalising of energy assets and building new coal-fired power stations before correcting a clear market imperfection within their own organisation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-julie-bishop-will-be-open-to-post-politics-offers-102279">View from The Hill: Julie Bishop will be open to post-politics offers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And with speculation that Julie Bishop could also withdraw from the 2019 field, the situation facing Morrison’s Liberals threatens to deepen.</p>
<p>Through all of this, voters’ views come second.</p>
<p>Not so long ago, Bishop was easily the most popular alternative to Malcolm Turnbull in voter land but such unrivalled public support was good for just 11 votes in the party room.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Prime Minister’s reaction to Kelly O'Dwyer’s decision says much about the Coalition’s attitude to women.Mark Kenny, Senior Fellow, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101592019-01-20T11:08:33Z2019-01-20T11:08:33ZView from The Hill: O'Dwyer’s decision turns the spotlight onto Bishop<p>The political down time over summer can be something of a respite for
an embattled government. But for Scott Morrison, it has just brought
more setbacks. The weekend announcement by cabinet minister Kelly
O'Dwyer that she will leave parliament at the election is the latest
and most serious.</p>
<p>O'Dwyer says she wants to see more of her two young children, and
would like to have a third, which involves medical challenges.</p>
<p>Her decision is understandable. The first woman to have a baby while a
federal cabinet minister has been juggling an enormous load.</p>
<p>But with the general expectation that the Morrison government is
headed for opposition, many people will think (rightly or wrongly)
that O'Dwyer was also influenced by the likelihood she faced the grind
of opposition, which is a lot less satisfying than the burden of
office.</p>
<h2>Bad timing for the minister for women</h2>
<p>Her insistence at Saturday’s joint news conference with Morrison
that he will win the election won’t convince anyone.</p>
<p>If the Liberals didn’t have their acute “woman problem”, O'Dwyer’s
jumping ship wouldn’t be such a concern. She’s been a competent
minister, not an outstanding performer. She was not in “future leader”
lists.</p>
<p>But it’s altogether another matter to have your minister for women
bailing out when there has been a huge argument about the dearth of
females in Coalition ranks, damaging allegations of bullying within
the Liberal party, and high profile Victorian backbencher Julia Banks
deserting to the crossbench.</p>
<p>All in all, the Liberal party is presenting a very poor face to women
voters. It was O'Dwyer herself who told colleagues last year that the
Liberals were widely regarded as “homophobic, anti-women,
climate-change deniers”.</p>
<h2>Anti-women climate-change deniers?</h2>
<p>An effort earlier this month to have assistant ministers Sarah
Henderson and Linda Reynolds talk up the Liberals’ credentials on women looked like the gimmick it was.</p>
<p>O'Dwyer says she has “no doubt” her successor as the Higgins candidate will be a woman. Morrison also says he thinks there will be a female replacement.</p>
<p>But this just highlights how the Liberal party’s failure to bring
enough women through the ranks now forces it into unfortunate corners.</p>
<p>The candidate will be chosen by a local preselection. As one
journalist quipped at the news conference, is the situation that blokes needn’t apply?</p>
<p>And what if a man happened to win? Remember Morrison’s experience in the Wentworth byelection, where he wanted a woman and the preselectors gave him Dave Sharma? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-wentworth-preselectors-rebuff-to-morrison-caps-week-of-mayhem-103216">Grattan on Friday: Wentworth preselectors' rebuff to Morrison caps week of mayhem</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Sharma was generally considered a good candidate - and Morrison is happy for him to have his second try against independent Kerryn Phelps at the general election.</p>
<p>Assuming, however, that Higgins preselectors heed the gender call,
it seems they will have some strong female contenders to choose from.</p>
<p>Paediatrician Katie Allen, who contested the state election, has
flagged she will run; Victorian senator Jane Hume is considering a
tilt.</p>
<p>There is inevitable speculation about whether former Abbott chief-
of-staff Peta Credlin might chance her arm for preselection.</p>
<p>But her hard-edged political stance would be a risk in an electorate
where the Greens have been strong – savvy Liberals point out a climate
sceptic wouldn’t play well there. And it would be embarrassing for her
if she ran for preselection and was defeated.</p>
<p>O'Dwyer rejects the suggestion she was swayed by the possibility she
might lose Higgins. Some Liberals were pessimistic about the seat
after the party’s drubbing in the Victorian election, and Labor was
ahead in two-party terms in a poll it commissioned late last year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/minister-for-women-kelly-odwyer-says-liberals-were-subject-to-threats-in-leadership-battle-102608">Minister for Women Kelly O'Dwyer says Liberals were 'subject to threats' in leadership battle</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But the government has a 10% margin in two-party terms against Labor, and despite the polling the ALP doesn’t expect to win the seat. (In 2016 the Greens finished second.)</p>
<p>O'Dwyer, who is also minister for jobs and industrial relations,
remains in her positions and in cabinet until the election.
Understandably Morrison would not want a reshuffle. But having a lame
duck minister in the important IR portfolio is less than optimal.</p>
<h2>Attention turns to Bishop</h2>
<p>Inevitably O'Dwyer’s announcement has turned attention onto the future
of former deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop. Bishop has said she is
contesting the election but there is continuing speculation she might
withdraw.</p>
<p>While she has previously left open the possibility of running for the
opposition leadership this makes no sense.</p>
<p>Now in her early 60s, her chances of ever becoming PM would be
virtually nil if Labor won with a good majority and was set for two
terms. That’s if she had the numbers to get the leadership in the
first place.</p>
<p>It is assumed Bishop has said she’s staying so she stymies any replacement
she doesn’t want (such as attorney-general Christian Porter whose own
seat is at risk) and can secure a candidate she favours.</p>
<p>Even though she’s a backbencher now, it would be a another blow for
the Liberals if Bishop does decide to retire at the election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/julie-bishop-goes-to-backbench-marise-payne-becomes-new-foreign-minister-102172">Julie Bishop goes to backbench, Marise Payne becomes new foreign minister</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>She was humiliated when she received only a handful of votes in the
August leadership ballot. Her treatment left her deeply angry,
especially because none of her Western Australian colleagues supported
her.</p>
<p>But out in the community she is very popular and many voters still
can’t understand why, when there was a change of prime minister, she
was not the one chosen.</p>
<p>If Bishop were to walk away, she would be making a rational decision.
But it would send another powerful negative vibe to voters about
the Liberal party and women.</p>
<hr>
<p>UPDATE: Jane Hume, interviewed on the ABC on Monday morning, has
ruled out running for the Higgins preselection.</p>
<p>UPDATE: In reply to queries to her office, Bishop said on Monday: “I am pre-selected as the member for Curtin and it is my intention to run”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The minister for women’s decision to walk away is appalling timing, and the government’s most popular woman might follow suit.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800622017-07-02T20:11:10Z2017-07-02T20:11:10ZCanada offers Australia a blueprint for protecting and motivating corporate whistleblowers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176348/original/file-20170630-31064-1auhooh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dr. Benjamin Koh blew the whistle on former employee CommInsure in 2016 for their systemic program of denying valid insurance payments.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the Australian government considers <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-23/kelly-odwyer-announces-whistleblowing-reforms/8646436">how to incentivise and protect corporate whistleblowers</a>, it could look to Canada’s system. The securities regulator for Canada’s largest and most populous province, the Ontario Securities Commission, launched its <a href="http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/documents/en/Securities-Category1/20160714_15-601_policy-whistleblower-program.pdf">whistleblower program</a> last year.</p>
<p>The program is accompanied by some important changes in law to protect whistleblowers from retaliation, but also a bounty to motivate employees to inform authorities of any wrongdoing. Both of these are sorely lacking in Australia’s corporate environment.</p>
<p>The Canadian changes were inspired, at least to some extent, by the whistleblower provisions introduced in the US as a result of the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/about/laws/wallstreetreform-cpa.pdf">Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act 2010</a>. However while Ontario did embrace some of these changes, there are some notable differences. </p>
<p>For a start, any provisions in an employment agreement that prevents employees from whistleblowing are now void, thanks to changes to the Ontario Securities Act. Any reprisal action employers take against whistleblowers is now also an offence.</p>
<p>The Dodd Frank Act had introduced similar provisions and provided a right for whistleblowers to <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/78u-6">sue their employer</a> if they’d retaliated against them. The Ontario government is considering introducing legislation to grant whistleblowers a similar right. </p>
<p>In Australia, similar legislation to protect whistleblowers from reprisals is unlikely to be controversial. However, the introduction of a financial award or bounty system would be more contentious. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/dont-take-us-path-of-paying-whistleblowers/news-story/1d97c58be3be9e1e33da5a6a6d065a99">Lawyers acting for businesses argue</a> argue that it undermines internal compliance and can end up rewarding those who are complicit in the illegal behaviour.</p>
<p>Despite these claims, Ontario did decide to introduce a financial award for reporting breaches of Ontario securities law to the Ontario Securities Commission. The point of the program is not to compensate whistleblowers for losses they may suffer, but to motivate them to come forward with high quality information. This information would otherwise be difficult to obtain, so it helps regulators increase the number and efficiency of investigations. </p>
<p>The regulators also hope the threat of being reported for misconduct will motivate companies to improve internal whistleblower reporting systems and to deal more proactively with illegal behaviour. This approach works with the <a href="http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/documents/en/Securities-Category1/sn_20140311_15-702_revised-credit-coop-program.pdf">Ontario Securities Commission’s credit for cooperation program</a>, where companies that self-report violations early are dealt with more leniently than those reported by a whistleblower. </p>
<p>Unlike the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/owb-annual-report-2016.pdf">whistleblower bounty program in the US</a> which is paid for and administered by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Ontario Securities Commission award program is designed to be self-funding. Because of this, the awards in Canada are likely to be lower, usually between 5% and 15% of the total sanctions imposed where these amounts total CAD$1 million or more. Under the Securities and Exchange Commission’s program, the award is set at between 10% and 30%. </p>
<p>Also unlike the Securities and Exchange Commission’s program, awards made under the Ontario Securities Commission’s program are capped at a maximum of CAD$1.5 million, irrespective of whether or not the Commission collects the sanctions. But this can increase to a maximum of CAD$5 million if sanctions of over CAD$10 million are actually collected. </p>
<p>The Ontario system illustrates that it’s possible to design a cost effective system, with lower awards than in the US, to drive improvements in companies’ responses to reports of illegal behaviour. In fact, Heidi Franken, chief of the Ontario Securities Commission’s Office of the Whistleblower, reported that since the launch of their program the Office has received a significant increase in persons coming forward with valuable information. </p>
<p>To be effective, however, any system Australia implements should contain a real prospect of significant penalties, so that at least some whistleblowers will receive an award. </p>
<p>In Ontario, the Ontario Securities Commission can ensure whistleblowers are paid because it has a broad power to seek disgorgement of profits and <a href="http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/en/Proceedings_before-commission_index.htm">administrative penalties of up to CAD$1 million for each breach</a>. It does so via proceedings held before an administrative tribunal, comprised of Commissioners from the Ontario Securities Commission. </p>
<p>The Ontario Securities Commission is usually successful in these proceedings and penalties are only overturned infrequently on appeal. This is because courts give a high degree of deference to the decisions of this specialised administrative tribunal. </p>
<p>Australia’s regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), doesn’t have a similar power and <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-asic-already-have-the-powers-of-a-royal-commission-and-more-57666">ASIC’s current powers</a> to obtain civil penalties are weak in comparison. </p>
<p>So for a whistleblowing award program to work in Australia, the federal government may need to enhance ASIC’s powers or find an alternative source of funds to pay whistleblower bounties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80062/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Austin is a Visiting International Research Fellow at Flinders University </span></em></p>Australian authorities are considering offering financial incentives for would-be whistleblowers to motivate them to come forward with high quality information.Janet Austin, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, University of New BrunswickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/627272016-07-19T11:47:17Z2016-07-19T11:47:17ZLiberals deride quotas for women MPs but how are they going to make targets work?<p>Before the election Malcolm Turnbull had no trouble calling himself a feminist but now his party has had its woman problem highlighted by the result.</p>
<p>There will only be 13 women among the 60 (assuming the party loses Herbert) Liberals in the House of Representatives. That’s 21.7%. In the last House there were 17 women among 75 Liberals (22.7%). The decline might be marginal but the representation is unacceptably low in both terms.</p>
<p>And when people start highlighting the problem, everything comes to be seen through the gender prism.</p>
<p>After he became prime minister Turnbull boosted the number of women in cabinet from two to five. Kelly O'Dwyer, Marise Payne and Michaelia Cash were elevated. Payne became Australia’s first female defence minister. </p>
<p>A few months later the number of women went to six, when Fiona Nash became Nationals deputy.</p>
<p>In this week’s ministerial reshuffle, two of the Liberal cabinet women have had large parts of their ministerial bailiwicks stripped away.</p>
<p>O'Dwyer keeps her (renamed) area of revenue and financial services but small business has been removed. Christopher Pyne, in a newly created job of defence industry, now has a big slice of defence minister Payne’s former territory.</p>
<p>Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek quickly claimed the two had been “demoted”. That wasn’t actually true but it drew attention to the fact they’d come out losers.</p>
<p>Turnbull overloaded O'Dwyer initially, giving her areas previously held by two ministers. Splitting the roles better distributes the workload, although he was probably driven by having to accommodate the Nationals – who had more spots and wanted small business (which is now outside cabinet, to the sector’s anger).</p>
<p>The well-regarded Payne hasn’t had much time to prove herself in one of the most testing ministries. Pyne is not a junior minister to help out but her cabinet equal. It’s hard to see the exercise as other than giving Pyne, a South Australian, a large pork barrel that will be very useful in the politics of his state, where the Xenophon forces have run rampant. It’s also suggested Pyne will be more of a salesman than the rather reticent Payne.</p>
<p>Health Minister Sussan Ley had been under some criticism, leading to speculation she might be moved. The case against shifting her could have been strengthened by the prospective backlash if three women had been targeted – even if the motives had nothing to do with gender.</p>
<p>The small number of Liberal women in the lower house has sparked a fresh debate about what can be done.</p>
<p>One problem is that women often tend to be in marginal seats and so their fates are more tied to swings, positive and negative. When John Howard won in 1996 a good number of women entered parliament on the coat-tails of that victory. A negative swing can work the other way, although in this election the swing against the Liberals hit men and women roughly proportionately.</p>
<p>Liberal deputy Julie Bishop has suggested the wider use of preselection plebiscites might help boost numbers. Plebiscites are desirable for a range of reasons but will they act to get more women? Not necessarily, if the Victorian Liberal experience is any guide. The party’s state division has plebiscites but there are only three women among its 14 House of Representatives members (including the new member for Chisholm, Julia Banks, who took the seat from Labor).</p>
<p>The Liberals are vociferously against quotas, but in Victoria at an organisational level they have always had them. When the Liberals were founded by Robert Menzies in the mid-1940s, the powerful Australian Women’s National League merged into the new party on the condition of equal male-female representation on governing bodies throughout the Victorian division. One would have thought the women in the organisation could have used this power better to get more women into parliament.</p>
<p>Georgina Downer, who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in the safe seat of Goldstein, says a big difficulty is getting enough women to contest preselections.</p>
<p>There aren’t many younger women in the party membership, she says, while “young ambitious guys are reasonably plentiful”. Party activism takes a lot of hours and women aged from the late 20s to early 40s, when political hopefuls are seeking preselection, are often juggling family and work responsibilities.</p>
<p>Another Victorian Liberal source says there are too few women who take on the chair positions in the party’s electorate bodies, which would improve their chances when preselections have become so local.</p>
<p>The Liberal federal executive has embraced “a national aspirational target of 50% for female representation in Australian parliaments by 2025”. But this is subject to each state division agreeing and devising a strategy for reaching it.</p>
<p>Without a dramatically greater commitment and effort by the party this won’t have the slightest chance of happening.</p>
<p>Such an effort needs to include very actively seeking potential female candidates and maximising their competitiveness in preselections, including by convincing sometimes sceptical rank-and-file preselectors that it is important for the party to get more women into parliament. </p>
<p>Senior Liberal women should bring whatever heft they can to doing this, and to ensuring senior men play their part too. Turnbull should use his influence with the Liberal organisation.</p>
<p>It’s no good the Liberals being sanctimonious about how much better “targets” are than “quotas” if their performance is so lamentable that they can’t achieve any meaningful targets.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/xzkk9-60ebb7?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/xzkk9-60ebb7?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Before the election Malcolm Turnbull had no trouble calling himself a feminist but now his party has had its woman problem highlighted by the result. There will only be 13 women among the 60 (assuming…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/553832016-02-25T19:03:43Z2016-02-25T19:03:43ZWill house prices ‘collapse’ if negative gearing is changed?<p>There is much confusion about the effects of Labor’s tax proposals with respect to investors in rental housing. They propose to grandfather existing arrangements. But investors in the future can only negatively gear newly constructed housing, while the policy recommends the capital gains discount fall from 50% to 25%.</p>
<p>Claims by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull that house prices will collapse appear to be contradicted by his assistant treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer who claims that housing costs will soar. These puzzling assertions arise due to a failure to distinguish between the market in rental housing, where housing is leased, and the market in which investors and owner occupiers buy and sell housing. Critically these two markets are interrelated.</p>
<p>To see why, consider the first round effects of Labor’s proposals when we put the grandfathering arrangements to one side (for the moment). Some existing investors will sell up when leases come up for renewal. There are now more tenants seeking rental housing opportunities than there is supply to meet their demand. Rents will begin to rise.</p>
<p>But the houses which investors quit add to the properties available for sale; there are now more houses available for purchase than there are buyers. House prices will begin to fall.</p>
<p>These market signals trigger a second round of effects. Some tenants will elect to buy rather than rent. After all renting has become more expensive and home ownership has become cheaper. These second round effects help to put a floor under falls in house prices, and help cap rent rises.</p>
<p>By considering the inter-relationships between the two markets we can understand how the government has issued apparently contradictory statements. Rents will rise and so the housing costs of tenants will increase. But there will be falls in house prices (or more likely a slower growth in prices); while existing owners take a hit, first home buyers housing costs are lower and attainment of home ownership becomes more affordable.</p>
<p>The second round effects mean that impacts are likely to be muted. This is made even more likely by a grandfathering proposal that should prevent a stampede by existing investors seeking to relinquish their property investments.</p>
<p>A disappointing aspect of the debate so far has been its neglect of the longer term structural consequences of Labor’s suggested reforms. Our current arrangements encourage high tax bracket investors to take on debt in the “chase” for capital gains. Capital gains are leniently taxed as compared to ordinary sources of income, such as earnings and rents. </p>
<p>Only 50% of capital gains are added to assessable incomes. This is particularly attractive to high tax bracket investors. Moreover, they are taxed on realisation rather than as they accrue. The shrewd investor realises the gains when assessable income from other sources declines; for example, following retirement when the investor’s marginal tax rate commonly falls.</p>
<p>There are not enough high tax bracket investors willing and able to invest in all our private rental housing stock. They tend to cluster in those segments of the market where healthy capital growth is expected, but rental yields are lower. Low tax bracket investors tend to cluster in segments where capital growth is expected to be subdued. Typically these are areas with lower house prices. To ensure adequate returns rental yields have to be higher in these low house price segments. </p>
<p>We therefore get a distorted investment pattern that disadvantages the supply of affordable rental housing.</p>
<p>Labor’s proposals will curb these distortionary effects by reducing the capital gains discount. They will also reduce the tax incentives to leverage investments.
Rising indebtedness is a threat to the resilience and stability of our housing market. </p>
<p>Many believe that repayment and investment risks carried by heavily indebted home buyers played a central role in precipitating the global financial crisis. Tax concessions that favour taking on debt exacerbate those risks. If Labor’s proposals succeed in attracting attention to these and other structural problems that plague Australian housing markets, they will have a much wider significance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Wood has recently delivered workshops on Housing Policy for the Commonwealth Department of Social Services.He receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>The results of changing negative gearing are not as straight-forward as the government suggests.Gavin Wood, Professor of Housing, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/497422015-11-20T03:19:48Z2015-11-20T03:19:48ZFactCheck: are average earners the main beneficiaries of negative gearing?<blockquote>
<p>Average income earners largely are the people who do get to take advantage of negative gearing - nurses, policemen and women on an average wage, investing, for instance, in a property. Most of them hold only one property, which adds to the housing stock that’s available for people as well. – Assistant Treasurer and Small Business Minister Kelly O'Dwyer, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2015/s4338469.htm">speaking</a> on ABC TV’s Insiders, October 25, 2015</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Forms/Rental-properties-2013-14/?anchor=negative_gearing">Negative gearing</a> is a tax break available to people who own an investment property. This tax break applies only if the costs associated with the investment, including interest payments and other expenses, are greater than the rental income. Any loss made on the property can be offset against other income, thus reducing personal tax.</p>
<p>It’s true many nurses and police officers and other middle-income (and even much lower) people have negatively geared properties. But are these occupations and incomes the <em>typical</em> beneficiaries of negative gearing?</p>
<h2>Checking the data</h2>
<p>When asked for a source to support her statement, a spokesperson for O'Dwyer sent the following statistics.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>• Taxation statistics show 66.5% of taxfilers who declare a net rental loss have a taxable income of A$80,000 or less.</p>
<p>• Those who use negative gearing include 22.6% of police officers, 19.2% of ambulance officers and paramedics, and 18.9% of train and tram drivers.</p>
<p>• Of the Australians who use negative gearing, the majority only hold one additional property.</p>
<p>• 73% of people with a rental property interest have only one property and 18% own two.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is no set definition of the average income earner for Australia. If Kelly O’Dwyer is referring to the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6302.0/">ABS’ average weekly earnings for full time employees in 2015</a> then she would be correct in asserting that most (around 66%) negatively geared investors have a taxable income below this level in 2012-13.</p>
<p>Although, it would also be true that around 84% of people without a rental property investment filing tax returns have a taxable income (<a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/taxation-statistics-2011-12/resource/6e8e20eb-1981-4363-8dfd-4052e9f2ec79">in 2012-13</a>) of less than $80,000 per annum. In other words, the vast majority of non-property investors have below average incomes.</p>
<p>Average weekly earnings for full time employees is not a good benchmark as income data is highly skewed by high income earners and many people don’t have full time employment.</p>
<p>Also, the latest taxation statistics showing actual taxable incomes (as sampled by the ATO) are for 2012-13, not 2015. It is the latest data we have got.</p>
<p>Incomes will have increased by around 10% since that taxation data was filed (wages increase by about 3% per year). It is also important to remember that the benefits of negative gearing are also greater for larger investments and higher marginal tax rates.</p>
<p>It is true that a relatively high proportion of the listed occupations have negatively geared properties. While it may be the popular belief that these are low or middle income occupations, these are actually reasonably highly paid occupations, compared to the median wage. For example, <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/taxation-statistics-2012-13/resource/a3fecf55-2674-44ce-a626-f5e0cd351c1b">73% of train and tram operators</a> earn more than A$80,000 per year. </p>
<p>A different way to look at it is to analyse the income distribution of people who negatively gear compared to that of people who do not invest in rental properties. </p>
<p>The data set we used is called the <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/taxation-statistics-2011-12/resource/6e8e20eb-1981-4363-8dfd-4052e9f2ec79">2012–13 individuals sample file</a>. To collect this data, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) sampled 2% of all individual tax returns filed in 2012-13. </p>
<p>According to this <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/About-ATO/Research-and-statistics/In-detail/Tax-statistics/Taxation-statistics-2012-13/?page=40">ATO data set</a>, there are 1.26 million (10%) taxpayers who negatively gear. Their average loss was A$8,930 per year. A further 700,000 with a rental investment are positively geared (meaning their rental income was greater than their costs). About 85% of taxpayers don’t have a rental investment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101923/original/image-20151115-10412-1h6jg2h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chart shows what statisticians call the “smoothed” probability distribution (which is a smoothed histogram of the income distribution) of taxable income for people with negatively geared properties and people without rental investment properties. Marked also on the chart are the median and top 10% (P90) income points for both people with negatively geared properties and those without property investments.</p>
<p>The median income for negatively geared investors is A$60,000 per year, compared with $40,000 for non-investors. </p>
<p>A similar gap (50%) exists at the top end of the income spectrum. The taxable incomes of the top 10% of earners with negatively geared investments is around $150,000 compared to $98,000 for non-investors. </p>
<p>The chart shows clearly that, typically, people with negatively geared properties have significantly higher incomes than people without property investments. </p>
<p>In an April 2015 <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/negative-gearing-positive-richest-10">analysis</a> commissioned by GetUp! for the Australia Institute, NATSEM found that 34% of the tax benefits of negative gearing accrues to the richest top 10% of families, as this chart from the <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/top-gears-how-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-discount-benefit-drive-house-prices">report</a> shows.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102431/original/image-20151119-19345-1kb57np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/top-gears-how-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-discount-benefit-drive-house-prices">Top Gears: How negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount benefit the top 10% and drive up house prices. Published by The Australia Institute.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Only around 20% of the tax benefits go to the bottom half of the income distribution. </p>
<p>High-income families invest more money than low-income families. The tax system benefits high-income earners more than low-income earners due to higher marginal tax rates amplifying the effectiveness of deductions.</p>
<h2>The role of capital gains</h2>
<p>Negatively gearing property implies that the investor is making a loss on their investment. As the chart below shows, the tax savings are greatest among those in the higher tax brackets. However, it remains the case that these investors continue to make an overall loss on their investment, even after accounting for tax deductions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102432/original/image-20151119-19348-1fbe7uh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/top-gears-how-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-discount-benefit-drive-house-prices">Top Gears: How negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount benefit drive up house prices, published by The Australia Institute.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The success of negative gearing as an investment strategy is reliant upon capital gains. In a property upswing, this strategy can be highly successful with lucrative gains on often minimal equity investment. During a property downswing or period of limited price growth, these strategies are very poor investments. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/negative-gearing-benefits-the-rich-far-more-than-everyday-australians-analysis-shows-20151113-gkyllz.html">analysis</a> by the Grattan Institute shows that while police and nurses do invest in property, it is the higher-income occupations, such as doctors and mining engineers, who are much more likely to invest.</p>
<h2>Adding to the housing stock?</h2>
<p>Property investment only improves housing affordability when the purchase adds to the stock of newly constructed dwellings in affordable housing. </p>
<p>According to CoreLogic RP Data, in 2014 there were just under <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/pdf/reports/qtrly-economic-property-review--nov2014.pdf">500,000</a> property transactions and ABS building completions data suggest only around a <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8752.0Jun%202015?OpenDocument">third</a> of those were newly built dwellings. It therefore stands to reason that most property transactions each year are probably existing stock.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>If Kelly O’Dwyer is referring to the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6302.0/">ABS’ average weekly earnings for full time employees in 2015</a>, then she would be correct in asserting that most (around 66%) negatively geared investors have a taxable income below this level in 2012-13.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/About-ATO/Research-and-statistics/In-detail/Tax-statistics/Taxation-statistics-2012-13/?page=40">ATO data</a> shows that, typically, negatively geared investors have higher incomes than people without rental investments. </p>
<p>The same data shows that negatively geared investors have typical incomes around 50% higher than non-investors – even after deducting their losses from negative gearing.</p>
<p>The top 10% of the income distribution for negatively geared investors earn around 50% more than non-investors. Incomes for this top 10% are around $150,000 per year, compared with $98,000 for non-investors, <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/About-ATO/Research-and-statistics/In-detail/Tax-statistics/Taxation-statistics-2012-13/?page=40">according to the ATO</a>. <strong>– Ben Phillips and Cukkoo Joseph</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>While I agree with everything in the above FactCheck, I would go further in criticising Kelly O'Dwyer’s statement, particularly the reference to investors adding to the housing stock.</p>
<p>The figure cited above for the ratio of housing purchases for new housing stock includes owner occupiers.</p>
<p>The impact on housing stock is tiny, but the effect on housing affordability of all those investors bidding up the prices of existing housing is likely to be substantial.<strong>– Warwick Smith</strong></p>
<p><em>CORRECTION AND CLARIFICATION: This article was corrected after publication on November 24 to acknowledge the fact that if Kelly O’Dwyer is referring to the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6302.0/">ABS’ average weekly earnings for full time employees in 2015</a>, then she would be correct in asserting that most (around 66%) negatively geared investors have a taxable income below this level in 2012-13. This change involved alteration to a number of paragraphs. You can read more about the correction and clarification <a href="https://theconversation.com/corrected-factcheck-on-negative-gearing-51190">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Phillips works for the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), an independent university research organisation specialising in academic research that undertakes consulting services to a wide range of clients.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cukkoo Joseph and Warwick Smith do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer told the ABC that “average income earners largely are the people who do get to take advantage of negative gearing.” Is that a fact?Ben Phillips, Principal Research Fellow, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of CanberraCukkoo Joseph, Research Assistant, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/476262015-09-20T06:55:30Z2015-09-20T06:55:30ZTurnbull unveils cabinet line-up: experts respond<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced his <a href="http://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PM-Turnbull-Ministry-List.pdf">frontbench line-up</a> following last week’s leadership spill, which includes the promotion of Scott Morrison to treasurer among sweeping changes.</p>
<p>Speaking on Sunday, Turnbull said he was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… announcing a 21st-century government and a ministry for the future. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gone from the frontbench entirely are Joe Hockey, Kevin Andrews, Eric Abetz, Bruce Billson and Ian Macfarlane. Josh Frydenberg (resources, energy and Northern Australia), Kelly O’Dwyer (small business and assistant treasurer), Marise Payne (defence), Mitch Fifield (communications and arts), Christian Porter (social services), Michaelia Cash (employment), Arthur Sinodinos (cabinet secretary) and Simon Birmingham (education) are the fresh faces in cabinet. </p>
<p>Turnbull said Hockey, the dumped treasurer, would be resigning from parliament “in due course”.</p>
<p>So, what are the key challenges for ministers entering new portfolios? What unfinished business do they inherit? The Conversation asked experts in these policy areas to respond.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Employment – Michaelia Cash</h2>
<p><strong>Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p>Cash should be active in lobbying the treasurer to take every action possible to stimulate economic growth in Australia. More jobs and lower unemployment will only happen with a higher rate of economic growth. With Australia still being in a post-GFC and post-mining boom downturn, government policy needs to provide a stimulus to economic activity. This means having an expansionary budget policy, and making progress on budget policy reform in order to increase business and consumer confidence.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95437/original/image-20150920-31741-n58mjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michaelia Cash will join cabinet as employment minister,</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cash should seek to have the education portfolio joined to employment. Australia’s employment future is integrally linked to its education future. Our international comparative advantage is in producing goods and services that require high-skill labour, so orienting the institutions for policymaking on education towards employment seems critical.</p>
<p>Cassh should introduce better programs for improving the job readiness of the unemployed. Work for the Dole <a href="https://theconversation.com/work-for-the-dole-doesnt-work-but-here-is-what-does-22492">doesn’t work</a>, so get rid of it. Replace it with the types of programs that international and Australian evidence tell us work, such as programs at the local level involving partnerships between service providers, employers, welfare and community groups; programs designed to improve the skills of unemployed who are facing high barriers to employment and to provide them with a pathway to a permanent job.</p>
<p>Cash shouldn’t worry about industrial relations reform. There is <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_H1wGTm98W3WDVmM29wbURJTTQ/edit?pli=1">no evidence</a> that changes to the IR system would substantially increase productivity in Australia. So, ignore the cacophony of voices that will be demanding you do something in this space, and spend your time where it can have an impact.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Social Services – Christian Porter</h2>
<p><strong>Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</strong></p>
<p>Porter will face many of the same challenges as his predecessor. But he will bring to the portfolio his previous experience as a former treasurer in the Western Australian government.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/">Social Services</a> is the largest-spending federal government department. The <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2015-16/">2015-16 budget</a> included A$154 billion of social security and welfare spending, or around 36% of total budget expenditure. The portfolio currently includes responsibility for welfare payments, family support, seniors, aged care, and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), and thus directly or indirectly touches on the daily life of most Australians.</p>
<p>The most obvious challenge relates to many of the changes to social welfare proposed in last two budgets having failed to pass the Senate and having been <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/the-budget-fairness-and-class-warfare/">widely perceived as unfair</a>. The perception of unfairness partly reflects that Australia has the most targeted social security system <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/who-gets-what-who-pays-for-it-the-welfare-state-debate-revisited/">in the developed world</a>. Australia directs the highest share of its social security spending to the poor and the lowest proportion to the rich. </p>
<p>As such, a recent OECD <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/the-equity-implications-of-fiscal-consolidation_5k4dlvx2wjq0-en">study</a> of the equity implications of fiscal consolidation concludes that across-the-board cuts in social security would increase inequality in Australia more than any other country. It also means that the scope for cutting spending without adversely affecting low- and middle-income earners is limited.</p>
<p>It is clear that the challenges Porter faces are significant. While preparation for next year’s budget is likely to occupy most of his time, there is a case to be made for focusing on the medium term rather than the short term. When budget proposals are aimed at the short-term needs of the electoral cycle, they can create more challenges than they resolve. It is important to avoid short-term “fixes” that make the system less coherent.</p>
<p>A sustainable welfare system requires more than just constraining costs to meet short-term budgetary policy. A sustainable system also requires that recipients and current taxpayers view the system as fair and that payments are adequate to meet social objectives, particularly those relating to the adequacy of payments.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Defence – Marise Payne</h2>
<p><strong>John Blaxland, Senior Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University</strong></p>
<p>Changing defence minister only a few weeks before the <a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/">Defence White Paper</a> is <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/governments-white-paper-running-two-months-late/story-fncynjr2-1227488800222">due to be released</a> risks the process blowing out further, perhaps into next year. But chances are the process is so well advanced that the decision is no longer solely in the defence minister’s hands, and therefore will proceed unimpeded. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95433/original/image-20150920-31751-32tmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marise Payne will become Australia’s first female defence minister.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mark Graham</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cabinet’s National Security Committee has been briefed on developments along the way. So, presuming there is some continuity there, for most committee members it won’t contain any surprises. As it stands, the indications are that this white paper is likely to place emphasis on regional defence engagement and local construction for the navy’s fleet replacement program.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/publications/reviews/firstprinciples/Docs/FirstPrinciplesReviewB.pdf">First Principles Review</a> – released earlier this year – is now well on the way to being implemented, generating considerable organisational change intended to overcome some longstanding inefficiencies. Chances are that Payne will have little option but to accept what has been done and proceed. Derailing that would be counterproductive to the workings of the department and damaging politically.</p>
<p>Since the time of Kim Beazley – a rare case of a minister interested in and knowledgeable about his portfolio – the appointment of defence minister has rarely been a stepping stone up the ladder. Most previous incumbents have found the vast and unwieldy portfolio difficult to handle and even harder to reform.</p>
<p>What’s needed now, however, is a steady pair of hands to see through the reform measures underway; someone who is not simply intending to use the portfolio as a pork barrel to woo marginal electorates.</p>
<p>We can expect to see a continuation of Australia’s military commitment in Iraq and Syria. Having been so outspoken about our participation it would be imprudent to back out quickly. There remains a firm conviction in certain circles that we must continue to “fight the good fight” – even though exactly what is good about it becomes harder to discern.</p>
<p>While the force commitment will continue and possibly gradually scale down, we can expect a more circumspect posturing about its significance, importance and effectiveness, and a greater emphasis on expanding security ties in our region.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Education – Simon Birmingham</h2>
<p><strong>Dean Ashenden, Honorary Senior Fellow, Melbourne Graduate School of Education, University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p><strong>Schools</strong></p>
<p>The central problem for any federal education minister is that the Commonwealth <a href="http://research.acer.edu.au/aer/14/">spends</a> A$15 billion per year on schools in three sectors, all of which are funded by state/territory governments as well – yet it controls none of them. The Commonwealth’s “targeted” programs add another layer of complexity.</p>
<p>There is bipartisan agreement that this is a dysfunctional mess.</p>
<p>The Rudd-Gillard solution was the <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/review-of-funding-for-schooling-final-report-dec-2011.pdf">Gonski plan</a>, which proposed binding federal and state/territory governments to a common “sector-blind”, needs-based funding scheme.</p>
<p>A Coalition “unity ticket” on Gonski, announced on the eve of the 2013 election, was almost immediately abandoned in government.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95438/original/image-20150920-31748-a24z1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Simon Birmingham will become education minister.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Various alternatives to Gonski were subsequently canvassed by no less than three Abbott government reviews – none as far-sighted as Gonski, and none based in the education portfolio. These are the <a href="http://www.ncoa.gov.au/report/index.html?utm_source=Liberal+Party+E-news&utm_campaign=f9646c25f4-Commission+of+Audit&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_51af948dc8-f9646c25f4-57654429">Commission of Audit</a>, the <a href="http://competitionpolicyreview.gov.au/draft-report/">Competition Policy Review</a>, and now the Reform of the Federation <a href="https://federation.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/reform_of_the_federation_discussion_paper.pdf">discussion paper</a>.</p>
<p>The big challenge for Birmingham will be to work out what – if anything – can be done, in a politically fraught arena, in less than 12 months, in the knowledge that key decisions will be taken elsewhere in the government, and the near-certainty that Labor will run hard on the electorally popular Gonski plan.</p>
<p>Birmingham has the advantage of a clean slate as well as a different prime minister. He could do worse than try to persuade his government to consider the Gonski option, again.</p>
<p><strong>Gwilym Croucher, Higher Education Policy Analyst, University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p><strong>Higher education</strong></p>
<p>Higher education saw a very tumultuous period under the now-former education minister, Christopher Pyne. The new minister, Simon Birmingham, has been a very strong performer in the vocational education and training space. While this might signal a change of course for the government on its proposed higher education legislation, Birmingham is a strong choice to prosecute if it is going to continue to push for it.</p>
<p>It is a loss for higher education that it no longer has a senior member of the government as minister. But as Pyne is now the minister for industry, innovation and science, he still has responsibility for supporting much of the research effort. This change may show how seriously the new Turnbull government intends to take innovation and science policy.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Communications; Arts – Mitch Fifield</h2>
<p><strong>Thas Nirmalathas, Director – Melbourne Networked Society Institute, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Co-Founder/Academic Director – Melbourne Accelerator Program, University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p><strong>Communications</strong></p>
<p>Late last year, the government <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-now-for-the-nbn-as-taxpayer-investment-is-capped-26703">capped</a> National Broadband Network (NBN) investment, fixing public equity at A$29.5 billion. Recent media reports have highlighted potential cost blowouts of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-24/nbn-cost-blows-out-by-up-to-15-billion-dollars/6720878">close to $15 billion</a>. </p>
<p>It is not clear how nbn Co. will finance this shortfall, despite nbn Co. chief executive Bill Morrow’s insistence that customers would not be forced to pay to cover this. Nbn Co.’s September 2015 rollout <a href="http://www.nbnco.com.au/corporate-information/about-nbn-co/corporate-plan/weekly-progress-report.html">progress report</a> said that the rollout has passed ~1.3M premises. However, less than half are activated with subscriptions. It is therefore impossible for nbn Co. to finance this shortfall simply through passing on the costs to customers.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95439/original/image-20150920-31729-1jyp6t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mitch Fifield will become communications minister.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fundamental question remains as to how Fifield should tackle the issue of a potential funding shortfall when nbn Co. should remain focused on accelerating the network rollout instead of being forced to find investors to meet its capital requirements. It remains to be seen whether the new leadership team would be willing to adopt a bipartisan approach to nbn investment and to set it free from frequent political interference. The majority of Australians want to see it completed sooner without fuss.</p>
<p>With bipartisan support, Turnbull as communications minister passed data retention legislation requiring telecommunications operators to capture and store customer metadata for two years. The <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/dataretention">potential cost</a> of this framework is estimated to be around $200-320 million. The laws raise two concerns – implementation details, including the costs of how the data is captured, archived and accessed, as well as how to set an appropriate freedom-of-information framework with certain guarantees on the ease and cost of access.</p>
<p>Despite passing the legislation and a willingness to grant organisations sufficient time to develop compliance readiness, the details on its implementation raises significant questions over whether telecommunications carriers and service providers will be expected to set up their own infrastructure. This is especially important in relation to smaller public and private entities offering free and paid services, such as WiFi. </p>
<p>The role and scope of government funding and support for metadata capture and storage will be a key issue for Fifield. In addition, decisions will have to be made regarding the mechanisms to be put in place to facilitate an informed review process, as promised by the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, in four years. This is particularly important given the <a href="http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/580592/data-retention-labor-coalition-set-non-fight-over-bipartisan-legislation/">community reactions</a> to its rushed implementation. </p>
<p><strong>Joanna Mendelssohn, Associate Professor, Art & Design, UNSW Australia</strong></p>
<p><strong>Arts</strong></p>
<p>Although some of us were hoping Turnbull would take a leaf out of former NSW premier Neville Wran’s book and take the arts ministry for himself, it is a great relief that he has cauterised the bleeding in the arts by giving the gig to Fifield.</p>
<p>Bearing in mind that Fifield is also communications minister, it is also administratively a sound mix. One of the problems with the George Brandis appointment was that it encouraged a very patrician approach to the arts as items to be consumed by the professions in their leisure hours. In his communications ministry Fifield will have to deal with the NBN and the digital revolution, and this fits in very well with some of the concerns of different areas of the arts.</p>
<p>In terms of ministerial competence Fifield has been quite impressive in dealing with the political minefield of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, so again there is hope that the bad old days of pollies on a frolic may end. I only hope Brandis’ <a href="http://arts.gov.au/nationalexcellenceprogram">Program for Excellence in the Arts</a> is quietly abandoned and due process is restored.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Science – Christopher Pyne</h2>
<p><strong>John Rice, Executive Director, Australian Council of Deans of Science; Honorary Professor, University of Sydney</strong></p>
<p>The issue for Pyne, as it was for his predecessor, is what empowerment the government will give him to back world-leading research, and to enable its translation into the innovative economy that Australia needs. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=788&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=788&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=788&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95434/original/image-20150920-31765-1ytdvlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Christopher Pyne will move from education to science, industry and innovation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sam Mooy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We don’t need to rehearse the arguments for this. It’s been done in spades by the Chief Scientist, Ian Chubb. He has also put in the hard yards to map out an agenda and processes that government, universities and business can get behind; a coherent, whole-of-government approach to managing Australia’s STEM effort across all of its facets, so that it can be a player in an innovation-based global economy. </p>
<p>The Abbott government showed no clear understanding of the importance and role of science. Research was a luxury that could be cut back in hard times, or gambled as a bargaining chip against a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-not-to-win-friends-and-influence-crossbenchers-threaten-scientific-research-38826">recalcitrant Senate</a>. Translation of research could be left to the market, the same one that contributes to Australia having almost the worst level of business-university interaction among its global peers.</p>
<p>Under the Abbbott government the hamstrung ministries have made some positive responses, sadly overwhelmed by the 2014 budget’s debilitating cuts. Will a Turnbull government empower them, and Pyne, to reimagine and expand on the Chief Scientist’s efforts? That remains the question, no matter who the minister might be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47626/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gwilym Croucher is a higher education policy analyst in the office of the Vice-Chancellor at the University of Melbourne.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joanna Mendelssohn is the Editor in Chief of Design and Art of Australia Online. She receives funding from the ARC through a Linkage Project on the History of Exhibitions of Australian Art.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rice is the Executive Director of the Australian Council of Deans of Science (ACDS). The opinions expressed in this article, however, are his own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the ACDS.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Whiteford receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thas Ampalavanapillai Nirmalathas receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Alcatel Lucent's Bell Labs as well as the Victorian state government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dean Ashenden, Jeff Borland, and John Blaxland do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What are the key challenges for ministers entering new portfolios in Malcolm Turnbull’s first cabinet? The Conversation asked experts in key policy areas to respond.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneDean Ashenden, Honorary Senior Fellow, Melbourne Graduate School of Education, The University of MelbourneGwilym Croucher, Senior Lecturer, Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education, The University of MelbourneJoanna Mendelssohn, Associate Professor, Art & Design: UNSW Australia. Editor in Chief, Design and Art of Australia Online, UNSW SydneyJohn Blaxland, Senior Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National UniversityJohn Rice, Honorary Professor, University of SydneyPeter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityThas Ampalavanapillai Nirmalathas, Director - Melbourne Networked Society Institute, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Co-Founder/Academic Director - Melbourne Accelerator Program, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.