tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/mark-latham-4012/articlesMark Latham – The Conversation2023-08-30T01:46:09Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120052023-08-30T01:46:09Z2023-08-30T01:46:09ZAs referendum set for October 14, ‘yes’ is behind and the poll trends are unfavourable<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today announced that the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. To succeed, a constitutional referendum requires a majority in at least four of the six states as well as a national majority.</p>
<p>I have been tracking 2023 Voice polls in a graph since <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">early July</a>. This graph now shows the referendum date.</p>
<p>A Voice poll hasn’t been conducted since the mid-August <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">Resolve poll</a> that gave “no” a 54–46 lead. But all recent polls have trended to “no”, with the most friendly pollster for “yes” (Essential) showing “no” ahead by 47–43 in their <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685">early August</a> poll.</p>
<p>In early May I wrote that just one out of 25 Labor-initiated referendums had succeeded in winning the required double majority. Furthermore, while not succeeding, referendums held by Labor had performed much better when held with a general election than as a standalone vote.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-the-voice-has-a-large-poll-lead-now-history-of-past-referendums-indicates-it-may-struggle-204365">While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle</a>
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<p>With the polling trends as they are, it’s very difficult to see “yes” winning a national majority. If “no” wins nationally, the state results don’t matter. </p>
<h2>Ticks and crosses referendum issue</h2>
<p>The Australian Electoral Commission will <a href="https://aec.gov.au/referendums/vote/completing-the-ballot-paper.html">instruct voters</a> to write either “yes” or “no” in the space provided on the ballot paper. But in a <a href="https://aec.gov.au/media/2023/08-25.htm">media release</a> last Friday, the AEC said that, owing to longstanding legal advice, ticks would be counted as “yes” votes, but crosses would be informal.</p>
<p>This legal advice says a tick is used to indicate approval, so it should be counted as “yes”. A cross can indicated disapproval, but can also indicate a choice, such as on government forms. As a cross is ambiguous, it should not be counted.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/08/voice-referendum-ticks-and-crosses.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the informal rate at the two 1999 referendums was about 0.9%, and these informal votes would have included blank and other clearly informal votes, so the cross informal rate was likely about 0.1%. </p>
<p>The “no” side is now well ahead in polling for this referendum, and that lead is increasing. It’s very unlikely the ticks and crosses issue will affect the result.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: 51–43 to Labor including undecided</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted August 16–20 from a sample of 1,151, Labor led by 51–43 including undecided (52–42 the previous fortnight). Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (up three), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down three), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (steady).</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/22-august-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese, Peter Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–29 positive (36–27 in June). Dutton was at 35–27 negative (34–27 previously). Bandt was at 36–21 negative (38–21 <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">previously</a>).</p>
<p>In a forced choice, 57% said they were glad Albanese’s Labor government won the last election, while 43% said it would have been better if Scott Morrison’s Liberal government had been re-elected.</p>
<p>By 67–13, voters agreed that professional sportswomen and sportsmen should be paid equally, and by 50–21 they agreed their interest in women’s sport had increased after Australia hosted the women’s soccer world cup.</p>
<p>On regulation of rents, 34% wanted rents frozen until economic conditions improve, 44% allowed to rise once a year by no more than inflation, 11% allowed to rise once a year by any amount and 10% unlimited rent increases.</p>
<p>By 90–10, voters thought they should have a right to know whether content is generated by Artificial Intelligence or not. On benefits and risks, 54% thought AI development has an equal amount of benefits and risks, 36% more risks than benfits and 10% more benefits than risks.</p>
<p>By 52–48, voters said they were financially comfortable over struggling, the first lead for comfortable in this question since late March.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 53.5–46.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal weekly <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan poll</a>, conducted August 21–27 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9479-roy-morgan-update-august-29-2023">sample</a> of 1,396, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/morgan-poll/primary-voting-intention">Primary votes</a> were 35% Labor (up 1.5), 35% Coalition (down 1.5), 13.5% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down one), 6.5% independents (down two) and 5% others (up two). Labor dropped 1.5 points last week.</p>
<h2>NSW: Mark Latham resigns from One Nation</h2>
<p>On August 22, New South Wales upper house MPs Mark Latham and Rod Roberts <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/mark-latham-and-rod-roberts-quit-one-nation/102760276">resigned from One Nation</a>, after accusing the party of “defrauding NSW electoral funds”. They will continue to sit as independents in the NSW upper house. Latham had earlier been ousted by Pauline Hanson as One Nation’s NSW leader.</p>
<p>These defections reduce One Nation from three to one NSW upper house MP. Two of their three MPs were elected in 2019, and will be up for election in 2027. Latham was elected in 2023, so his term doesn’t finish until 2031.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls</a>
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<h2>Victorian Warrandyte byelection: Liberals crush Greens</h2>
<p>At the 2022 Victorian state election, the Liberals beat Labor in <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2023by2/LA.htm?s=Warrandyte">Warrandyte</a> by a 54.2–45.8 margin. Labor did not contest Saturday’s byelection. The Liberals <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2023by2/Results/LA.htm?s=Warrandyte">defeated the Greens</a> by 71.1–28.9, from primary votes of 57.4% Liberals (up 8.9%), 18.6% Greens (up 7.4%), 5.7% Labour DLP (new), 4.1% independent Maya Tesa (new) and 3.9% Victorian Socialists (new). Labor won 33.2% in 2022.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to interpret byelections that are forfeited by one major party, but the Liberals will be happy with the surge in their primary vote. Many Labor voters clearly voted Liberal instead of Greens.</p>
<h2>Right likely to win October 14 New Zealand election</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/23/new-zealand-election-minus-seven-and-a-half-weeks/">The Poll Bludger</a> on August 23 that the two main right-wing New Zealand parties are likely to form government after the October 14 New Zealand election, replacing the current Labour government. The right is also likely to win the October 22 Argentine election, while there’s a UK byelection in an SNP-held seat to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the “yes” case is to win the October referendum, there will need to be sharp turn around in the polling trends to date.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112062023-08-15T05:07:57Z2023-08-15T05:07:57ZLabor, Albanese and the Voice slide in Resolve poll; Fadden byelection preference flows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542750/original/file-20230815-3698-wru29s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-pays-price-as-voice-support-slips-again-20230814-p5dwc9.html?btis=">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since the July Resolve poll), the Coalition 33% (up three), the Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 2% (up one), independents 10% (up one) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes gives Labor about a 56–44 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since July. Resolve has easily been Labor’s most favourable pollster since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 44% good and 42% poor, for a net approval of only +2, down 14 points since July. Peter Dutton’s net approval was up two points to -13. Albanese led Dutton by 46–25 as preferred PM, a nine-point narrowing from 51–21 in July.</p>
<p>In a forced choice question on the Indigenous Voice to parliament, “no” led by 54–46 (a 52–48 “no” lead in July). Initial preferences were 45% “no” (<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slips-again-in-national-resolve-poll-massive-swing-in-wa-puts-libs-ahead-210252">up three</a>), 37% “yes” (up one) and 18% undecided (down four).</p>
<p>This is Albanese’s worst net approval, Labor’s lowest primary vote and implied two party lead and the worst result for “yes” in Resolve polls conducted since the May 2022 election.</p>
<p>Here is an updated graph of 2023 Voice polls that I first <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">posted in July</a>. As the referendum has approached, the polling has become worse and worse for the Voice.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542741/original/file-20230815-9532-5ko42x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">2023 Voice polls.</span>
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<p>State breakdowns combined the July and August Resolve polls for a total sample size of 3,213. The overall “no” lead in the combined poll would have been about 53–47. Victoria and Tasmania were the only two states with a “yes” lead (51–49 in Victoria and 55–45 in Tasmania).</p>
<p>“No” led by 54–46 in New South Wales, 54–46 in South Australia, 56–44 in Western Australia and 59–41 in Queensland. In this poll, four states were below the national result of 53–47 “no”, so even if “yes” were able to win a national majority, winning majorities in the required four of six states would be difficult.</p>
<p>In this Resolve poll, the Liberals led Labor by 33–32 on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a>, reversing a Labor lead of 35–31 in July. Labor still led by 30–26 on keeping the cost of living low, down from a 31–24 lead in July.</p>
<p>The poll report attributes Albanese’s ratings slump to opposition to the Voice, but it may also be due to concerns over high interest rates and inflation. </p>
<p>But on July 26 the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> reported that inflation rose 0.8% in the June quarter, a slowdown from 1.4% in March and 1.9% in December last year. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-01/rba-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold-august-2023/102674010">Reserve Bank</a> did not increase rates at its meeting on August 1.</p>
<p>Morgan’s weekly <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9285-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-august-1">consumer confidence index</a> was up to 78.4 last fortnight, its highest since late April, but it dropped to 75.0 last week <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9295-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-august-15">before rebounding</a> to 78.2 this week. This index has reached a record 24 weeks below the 80-point mark. Economic pessimism that has made it more difficult for Labor has not yet eased.</p>
<h2>Newspoll’s absence</h2>
<p>A Newspoll is usually published by The Australian every three weeks on Sunday night, but it has now been over four weeks since the last Newspoll. YouGov is the pollster that conducts Newspoll.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/14/no-news-is-no-news-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said on Monday that two of YouGov’s senior staff had recently departed to start their own pollster. Perhaps this explains the delay in producing a new Newspoll.</p>
<h2>Fadden byelection preference flows</h2>
<p>The final results for the July 15 federal <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/29422/Website/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm">Fadden byelection</a> gave the Liberal National Party a 63.4–36.6 win over Labor, a 2.7% swing to the LNP since the 2022 federal election. Primary votes were 49.1% LNP (up 4.5%), 22.1% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.2%), 7.2% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.6%). The UAP (6.6% in 2022) did not contest.</p>
<p>Preference flows from One Nation were 77–23 to the LNP, while Legalise Cannabis were 57.5–42.5 to Labor and the Greens were 79–21 to Labor. At the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-159.htm">federal election in Fadden</a>, One Nation and UAP preference flows were both about 66–34 to the LNP, while Greens’ preferences were 78–22 to Labor.</p>
<p>This preference flow data suggests there has been an 11-point gain in LNP preferences from One Nation since the 2022 election. If this were applied nationally, the Coalition would be doing just under one point better after preferences in polls, with One Nation in the high single figures. The data also suggest that Legalise Cannabis voters are only modestly left-wing.</p>
<p>One Nation’s preference flow may have changed since the last election over opposition to Labor’s agenda, particularly the Voice.</p>
<h2>Victorian and NSW news</h2>
<p>Labor will not contest the Victorian state byelection for the <a href="https://pollbludger.net/vic2023by2/LA.htm?s=Warrandyte">seat of Warrandyte</a> on August 26. The Liberals won Warrandyte by a 54.2–45.8 margin against Labor at the 2022 state election. They should hold easily with their most prominent opponent likely to be the Greens (11.7% in Warrandyte in 2022).</p>
<p>One Nation federal leader Pauline Hanson on Monday <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-14/mark-latham-removed-as-nsw-one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson/102727170">dumped Mark Latham</a> as New South Wales leader. Latham claimed he remained leader of One Nation’s three NSW upper house MPs.</p>
<p>Hanson said One Nation’s vote at the March NSW election dropped by 14%. One Nation’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/lc-results">upper house vote</a> was actually 5.9% (down 1.0% since 2019). Hanson is using the relative decline from 6.9% in 2019. One Nation was expected to win at least two upper house seats at this election, but only won one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211206/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling on the Voice continues to provide bad news for the Albanese government and the “yes” campaign.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115482023-08-14T23:59:17Z2023-08-14T23:59:17ZHanson-Latham rift leaves One Nation’s future in NSW uncertain<p>Changes to the management of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party in NSW reaffirm an unchanging rule of politics. Opponents be damned. The fiercest fighting is reserved for colleagues.</p>
<p>The party’s federal leader, Hanson, confirmed her <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-14/mark-latham-removed-as-nsw-one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson/102727170">national executive’s decision</a> to replace its NSW division and declare Latham’s position as NSW parliamentary leader vacant.</p>
<p>A spokesperson for Hanson said a decline in the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/senator-mark-latham-forced-out-as-leader-of-nsw-division-of-one-nation/news-story/6cdaabe98e3c02bf1532ef16872240f1">party’s performance</a> at the March 2023 NSW election warranted a review of the “relationship between the organisation and parliamentary wings of the party”.</p>
<p>Latham challenged the decision, arguing if electoral “under-performance” was the rationale for replacing the NSW executive, then Hanson should “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MarkLathamsOutsiders?mibextid=LQQJ4d">buy a mirror</a>”. The party’s wider fortunes are the real issue, he observed, noting recent dips in support nationally and in Queensland.</p>
<p>Insisting he remains the leader of the One Nation NSW parliamentary team, Latham alleges the national intervention is really about control of the party’s finances. He committed to saying more on that issue when parliament next sits.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-and-one-nation-flopped-at-the-election-what-happened-183722">Clive Palmer and One Nation flopped at the election. What happened?</a>
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<p>Discord is not new to the party. ABC electoral analyst Antony Green <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/pauline-hanson-deposes-mark-latham-as-nsw-leader/">observes</a> of One Nation’s 35 state and federal parliamentarians over time, just “seven members have lasted long enough to face re-election”.</p>
<p>This latest conflict follows <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/disgusting-pauline-hanson-slams-latham-s-homophobic-comments-20230330-p5cwsv.html?_gl=1*3lvss1*_ga*MTAxNjI0ODE0NS4xNjc2NzAzODM3">Hanson’s condemnation</a>, in April, of Latham’s highly graphic social media post about independent NSW MP Alex Greenwich. Hanson labelled the post “disgusting”, asking Latham to issue an apology. He refused. </p>
<p>It is unlikely Latham and his One Nation parliamentary colleagues, Tania Mihailuk and Rod Roberts, will remain with the party. While their terms are assured – Latham’s expires in 2031 and his colleagues’ in 2027 – it is unclear what electoral traction they may have without Hanson’s backing. </p>
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<p>Hanson’s return as leader ahead of the 2016 federal election <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/17/pauline-hansons-one-nation-triples-support-since-election-newspoll">proved pivotal</a> in One Nation’s resurgence after a period of decline. However, direct support for Hanson in NSW has proven elusive, with her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hanson-fails-to-win-seat-in-nsw-20110412-1dbuy.html">2011 bid for election</a> to the state’s upper house falling short.</p>
<p>Latham, on the other hand, has forged a sizeable support base in NSW. His profile was sufficient for him to resign mid-term from the Legislative Council position he secured in 2019, to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/mark-latham-move-to-boost-one-nation-in-upper-house-works/102141060">successfully extend</a> his term by eight years at the 2023 poll.</p>
<p>The party’s ambitions to secure lower house representation at this year’s NSW election went unfulfilled, but it did secure significant levels of support. In some seats in Sydney’s west, backing for One Nation eclipsed the Greens’ third-party status. </p>
<p>In Camden, One Nation attracted 13.8% of <a href="https://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SG2301/LA/results">the primary vote</a>. In Campbelltown, 11.5%. At Hawkesbury, 10.3%. In Badgerys Creek, Londonderry and Penrith, the party drew 8.2%, and in Leppington it secured 7.5%.</p>
<p>It was not quite a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">Teal wave</a>”, but the beginnings of third-party support that could afford One Nation strategic leverage over time. Many of these emerging subregions of support for the party <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-suburbs-most-vulnerable-to-mortgage-and-cost-of-living-stress-20230608-p5df40.html">overlay areas</a> of mortgage, rental and cost-of-living stress. </p>
<p>While the NSW Labor government is yet to feel significant political pressure from the housing crisis and rising interest rates, a degree of <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/education/2023/08/11/anger-over-broken-deal-nsw-teachers#mtr">negative sentiment</a> is emerging over frustrated wage negotiations. Discontent is particularly apparent among many education, health and comparable public sector workers. A significant proportion of them reside in Sydney’s west and <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/content/dam/digital/images/centre-for-western-sydney/CfWS-Western-Sydney-Votes-2023-The-Results-with-DOI.pdf">helped restore</a> Labor’s electoral fortunes in a crucial battleground.</p>
<p>The test for Latham, Mihailuk and Roberts will be their capacity to navigate this episode of party turmoil, remain unified, and position themselves to build on proven levels of support for their brand of politics, whatever banner it falls under. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pauline-hanson-built-a-political-career-on-white-victimhood-and-brought-far-right-rhetoric-to-the-mainstream-134661">Pauline Hanson built a political career on white victimhood and brought far-right rhetoric to the mainstream</a>
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<p>The trio have over three years to do so. It’s not an impossible task, particularly given Latham’s capacity to rally support, and the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/20/nsw-budget-faces-severe-challenges-as-economy-slows-and-interest-rate-repayments-soar">severe challenges</a>” predicted to constrain the upcoming NSW budget.</p>
<p>Complicating any scenario for Latham and co is a national leader, in Hanson, who likely shares their awareness of One Nation’s potential brand growth in one of the <a href="https://www.budget.nsw.gov.au/budget-papers/western-sydney/our-vision-western-sydney#:%7E:text=Western%20Sydney%20is%20one%20of,rest%20of%20New%20South%20Wales.">fastest-growing</a> regions in Australia, and the motivation to grasp it.</p>
<p>If the ferocity of internal conflict is a marker of true politics, then One Nation might be about to remind us of some <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-12-years-in-opposition-grassroots-politics-restores-labor-to-power-in-new-south-wales-202144">home truths</a> about NSW party politics and its infamous, albeit recently becalmed, penchant for volatility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a period of relative calm, Pauline Hanson’s party is in turmoil once again.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084392023-06-25T11:54:27Z2023-06-25T11:54:27ZSimon Crean, former Labor and ACTU leader, dies aged 74<p>Simon Crean, a former Labor opposition leader, has died suddenly while in Germany, aged 74. </p>
<p>Crean, who served in parliament from 1990 to 2013, was a minister in the Hawke, Keating, Rudd and Gillard governments. </p>
<p>He was opposition leader between 2001 and 2003, when he was replaced by Mark Latham.</p>
<p>Under his leadership, Labor opposed Australia’s involvement in the Iraq War, although it supported the Australian troops who served in that operation.</p>
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<p>In the various Labor governments, Crean held a variety of portfolios. They included primary industries and energy, trade, education, employment and workplace relations, the arts, and regional development and local government. </p>
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<p>Before entering parliament, Crean was president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions from 1985 to 1990, and worked closely with the Hawke government. </p>
<p>He was brought up in politics - his father, Frank Crean, was treasurer in the Whitlam government.</p>
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<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in a statement on Sunday night: “Simon was a great servant of the Labor Party and of the broader labour movement.” </p>
<p>Albanese said be personally had benefited from Crean’s “advice and wisdom”.</p>
<p>“Simon’s many achievements in portfolios that ranged from trade to employment, from primary industries and energy to the arts, were characterised by a focus on the national interest, engagement with stakeholders, and always acting with principle and determination.</p>
<p>"The common threads running through his long career were his courage and his principled action, qualities that came so powerfully to the fore when he opposed the Iraq war. Yet his opposition to the war was backed by his unwavering respect for the members of the Australian Defence Force, a respect he showed when he went to address the troops ahead of their deployment.</p>
<p>"History has vindicated Simon’s judgement, but at the time his stance was deeply counter to the prevailing political and media climate,” Albanese said.</p>
<p>“After parliament, Simon continued to work for Australia’s interests, most notably as chairman of the European Australian Business Council.”</p>
<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton said he was “shocked and saddened to hear of Simon Crean’s passing. </p>
<p>"Simon was a gentleman to deal with and a giant of the labour movement. I always admired Simon for his decency and intellect and only just saw him recently in Melbourne,” Dutton said. </p>
<p>The Crean family said in a statement that Crean, who was in Berlin as part of an industry delegation, had died suddenly after his morning exercise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208439/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Crean, who served in parliament from 1990 to 2013, was a minister in the Hawke, Keating, Rudd and Gillard governments.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2036602023-04-14T04:37:25Z2023-04-14T04:37:25ZDutton’s ‘no’ vote reflects 40 years of Coalition partisanship on the Voice<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s hope for a bipartisan approach on the Voice to parliament referendum has crumbled.</p>
<p>Late last year, the National party declared it would oppose the proposed model, while the Liberal party did the same earlier this month. </p>
<p>Nationals Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-declare-they-will-oppose-the-voice-referendum-195446">said</a> the current Voice model “lacks detail”, “divides us along the lines of race”, and that it’s “a way to push people into feeling guilt for our nation’s history”.</p>
<p>And Opposition Leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/05/peter-dutton-confirms-liberals-will-oppose-indigenous-voice-to-parliament">said</a> “it is divisive and won’t deliver the outcomes to people on the ground”.</p>
<p>If these words sound familiar, that’s because in the late 1980s, the Coalition used the same arguments to oppose the creation of another First Nations advisory body, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC).</p>
<p>Indeed, the Coalition has a long-held opposition to an empowered Indigenous advisory body, and Dutton is parroting a well-rehearsed Coalition songbook. </p>
<h2>The Coalition’s battle against ATSIC</h2>
<p>Over the past 40 years, cooperation between the major parties on Indigenous affairs has been a complicated matter.</p>
<p>Even the ostensibly bipartisan approach to the 1967 referendum – which succeeded in altering the constitution to enable the Commonwealth to make laws for Indigenous people – concealed partisan differences.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-1967-referendum-was-the-most-successful-in-australias-history-but-what-it-can-tell-us-about-2023-is-complicated-198874">The 1967 referendum was the most successful in Australia's history. But what it can tell us about 2023 is complicated</a>
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<p>Gough Whitlam’s policy of self-determination became self-management under the Coalition in the late 1970s. Bipartisanship deteriorated further in the late 1980s after the Aboriginal affairs minister in the Hawke Labor government, Gerry Hand, announced the need to recognise and legislate Aboriginal self-determination.</p>
<p>Hand’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC) Bill would establish a national commission and regional councils across the country to monitor programs, develop policy and advise the minister. This was styled as a revolution in Aboriginal affairs. </p>
<p>In the 40 hours of parliamentary debates over the bill, clear ideological lines were drawn.</p>
<p>Hand said it was about giving Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people access to all levels of government to ensure the right decisions were made about their lives. It was about a new partnership and an attempt to right the wrongs of history.</p>
<p>Opposing it, the Coalition argued it would <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F1989-04-11%2F0025%22">divide the nation</a> rather than unite it, that it constituted a “black parliament”, that it was a racial law, and that it would not overcome Indigenous disadvantage. </p>
<p>The Liberals and Nationals rejected what they <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F1989-04-11%2F0028%22">called</a> the “symbolism, separatism and perpetual guilt” of the appeal to history.</p>
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<p>But it was Hand’s suggested preamble that worried the Coalition most. It acknowledged the distinct status of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as prior occupants and original owners of the land. It aimed to provide them with:</p>
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<p>full recognition and status within the Australian nation to which history, their prior ownership and occupation of the land, and their rich and diverse culture, fully entitle them to aspire.</p>
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<p>The parliamentary debates reveal the Coalition’s visceral rejection of the preamble, which it <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F1989-08-30%2F0038%22">called</a> a “gross irresponsibility”.</p>
<p>In 1989, then MP John Howard <a href="https://www.vinnies.org.au/icms_docs/168244_2004_Ozanam_Lecture_-_Thursday_20_May_2004.pdf">declared</a> the establishment of ATSIC an act of “sheer national idiocy”. Shadow Minister for Aboriginal Affairs Christopher Miles declared his party’s <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F1989-05-23%2F0119%22">intention to abolish ATSIC</a> if it proceeded as Hand had envisaged.</p>
<p>When the ATSIC bill finally passed, it was stripped of the preamble, and self-determination had been removed from its wording. </p>
<h2>What’s happened since ATSIC?</h2>
<p>As it turns out, the abolition of ATSIC became a bipartisan affair. In 2004, Prime Minister Howard declared the ATSIC Act <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/howard-puts-atsic-to-death-20040416-gdxoqw.html">would be repealed</a>, after Labor leader Mark Latham announced his decision to do the same if elected to office. Latham suggested a reconstituted body, but Howard declared no intention of replacing it.</p>
<p>While there has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/northern-territory-intervention-extended-but-is-it-working-8005">some cooperation</a> on Indigenous policy since, bipartisanship around an advisory body has been a slippery proposition.</p>
<p>Disagreements emerged in 2017 when Labor backed the Referendum Council’s recommendation of a constitutionally enshrined Voice to parliament. Then Liberal leader, Malcolm Turnbull, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/26/indigenous-voice-proposal-not-desirable-says-turnbull">rejected it</a>.</p>
<p>Bipartisanship cropped up again when Liberal and Labor leaders <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-and-shorten-agree-on-restart-for-indigenous-referendum-20180301-p4z2eb.html">agreed in 2018 to a restart on the referendum</a> through a parliamentary committee, to find common ground on Indigenous recognition. </p>
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<p>Given this history, it’s not surprising two of the main sticking points for the Coalition around the Voice proposal are that it will be permanent, and that it will have a voice to parliament and the executive (the cabinet and government departments).</p>
<p>The last time an Indigenous body advised the executive was when the Keating government sought to legislate native title following the Mabo decision. ATSIC mobilised a large group of Indigenous organisations to present their case to Keating’s <a href="https://www.roberttickner.com/taking-a-stand">Mabo Ministerial Committee</a>.</p>
<p>Then, in a series of intense negotiations with Keating following his draft native title bill in 1993, they salvaged some rights in the face of their near extinguishment.</p>
<p>The resulting Native Title Act was declared by the then Liberal leader, John Hewson, <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/127525273?searchTerm=millstone%20around%20our%20country%27s%20prosperity">as a</a> “millstone around our country’s prosperity” and a recipe for division.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-high-cost-of-the-liberals-voice-rejection-for-both-peter-dutton-and-the-party-203419">Grattan on Friday: the high cost of the Liberals' Voice rejection – for both Peter Dutton and the party</a>
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<p>This week, Howard resurfaced to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/indigenous-voice-john-howard-denounces-noel-pearsons-judas-attack-on-peter-dutton/news-story/3aa749e59860d1a3f9602f1bfdc66fa1">defend Dutton’s position</a> on the Voice referendum, declaring Dutton had not betrayed the Liberal party.</p>
<p>Howard was speaking a truth – the Coalition’s position on the Voice is entirely consistent with their partisanship in this area of Aboriginal policy since the 1980s.</p>
<p>Everything they now argue to support their “no” vote to the Voice they have long maintained.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203660/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Holland receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP230100714 - Policy for Self-Determination: the Case Study of ATSIC) with Distinguished Professor Larissa Behrendt, Associate Professor Daryl Rigney, Dr Kirsten Thorpe and Lindon Coombes. </span></em></p>The Coalition’s position on the Voice is entirely consistent with their partisanship in this area of Aboriginal policy since the 1980s.Alison Holland, Associate Professor, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2027162023-04-01T10:00:40Z2023-04-01T10:00:40ZLabor wins Aston byelection; NSW election and Trump polling updates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518840/original/file-20230401-26-4p60v9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Morgan Hancock/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 44% of enrolled voters counted in today’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/aston-by-election-2023">Aston federal byelection</a>, the ABC has Labor expected to win by 53.4-46.6 over the Liberals, a 6.3% swing to Labor from the 2022 general election. This includes ordinary election day votes only, no pre-polls or postals.</p>
<p>Labor is very likely to win Aston, but I will update this article tomorrow morning when the pre-polls and most postals have been counted. At the NSW election last week, Labor greatly underpeformed their election day votes on pre-polls.</p>
<p><strong>Update:</strong> The pre-poll booths are in on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/aston-by-election-2023/swing-table">primary votes</a>, and there are swings against the Liberals in all three. This confirms that Labor will gain Aston from the Liberals.</p>
<p>Labor gaining Aston is only the second time a government has gained an opposition-held seat at a federal byelection – the first time was in 1920. Labor had performed badly in previous byelections during the early years of the Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd governments.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-win-aston-byelection-voice-support-increases-in-essential-poll-199395">Liberals likely to win Aston byelection; Voice support increases in Essential poll</a>
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<p>Labor is currently polling honeymoon levels of support, and this explains the strong Aston result. The next federal election is still about two years away, and by then Labor may not be polling so well. This byelection is not predictive of the next election result.</p>
<p>However, the byelection is a terrible result for the Liberals and their leader, Peter Dutton. It will put him under pressure to keep his job.</p>
<h2>Labor won’t win a NSW election majority</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election was held on March 31. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/results?filter=all&sort=latest">ABC is now calling</a> 45 of the 93 lower house seats for Labor, 35 for the Coalition, three Greens and nine independents.</p>
<p>The large count of postals today confirmed that the Coalition would retain the three seats they looked likely to win as of Wednesday’s article: Terrigal, Goulburn and Holsworthy. Only one seat remains in doubt: <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/ryde">Ryde</a>, where the Liberals took a small lead on today’s postals, but Labor could regain the lead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-labor-unlikely-to-win-majority-after-flopping-on-pre-poll-votes-202715">NSW Labor unlikely to win majority after flopping on pre-poll votes</a>
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<p>Even if Labor wins Ryde, they would finish with 46 of the 93 seats, one short of the 47 needed for a majority. As I wrote Wednesday, Labor will still form the next NSW government. </p>
<p>As the combined vote share for the major parties declines and the number of seats won by non-major party candidates increases, hung parliaments where one major party has at least a few more seats than the other, but is short of a majority, will become more common.</p>
<p>Postal votes from today’s counting have not yet been added to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/lc-results">upper house count</a>. These votes will assist the Coalition in their attempt to win seven upper house seats, but late counting of absents and new enrolment votes may bring Animal Justice back into contention for the final upper house seat.</p>
<p>NSW One Nation leader Mark Latham made a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/mark-latham-under-fire-alex-greenwich-offensive-tweet/102166530">homophobic and sexually crass tweet</a> on Thursday. At this election, One Nation were expected to at least match the two upper house seats <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election">they won in 2019</a>, but have only won one seat after their vote dropped 1.2% from 2019.</p>
<p>Owing to half of the upper house being elected every four years for eight-year terms, One Nation will have three total upper house seats, but would have expected four.</p>
<h2>Trump indicted, but Republican primary polls are swinging in his favour</h2>
<p>Former US president Donald Trump <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/us-grand-jury-votes-to-indict-trump/102169494">was indicted</a> on Thursday (Friday AEDT) over hush money payments made to a porn star before the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Republican primaries to select their nominee to contest the November 2024 general election start in early 2024. There is disagreement over the size of Trump’s lead, with recent polls rated B+ or better by <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/">FiveThirtyEight</a> giving Trump between a five-point and a 30-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when other candidates are included.</p>
<p>It’s very likely that either Trump or DeSantis will be the Republican nominee, as no other potential Republican candidate polls higher than mid single digits.</p>
<p>While the polls disagree on the current size of Trump’s lead, they agree there’s been a recent swing to Trump. A Fox News poll had Trump by 15 points in February, and it now gives Trump a 30-point lead. A Quinnipiac poll gave Trump an eight-point lead in February; now Trump leads by 14.</p>
<p>On the Democratic side, there has so far been no credible challenge to incumbent President Joe Biden.</p>
<p>If Trump is the Republican nominee, he has a good chance of defeating Biden. Biden’s disapproval rating has been higher than 50% in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight aggregate</a> since October 2021. He will be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden">almost 82</a> by the November 2024 election, while Trump will be 78.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202716/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor is set to win the once-safe Liberal seat of Aston in Melbourne’s outer east, a disastrous result for the Liberals and Peter Dutton.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1396542020-09-07T20:11:54Z2020-09-07T20:11:54ZIs ‘cultural Marxism’ really taking over universities? I crunched some numbers to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355726/original/file-20200901-20-13sqv1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4256%2C2816&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Cultural Marxism” is a term favoured by those <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/cultural-marxism--the-ultimate-postfactual-dog-whistle-20171102-gzd7lq.html">on the right</a> who argue the <a href="https://theconversation.com/defunding-arts-degrees-is-the-latest-battle-in-a-40-year-culture-war-141689">humanities are hopelessly out of touch</a> with ordinary Australia. </p>
<p>The criticism is that radical voices have captured the humanities, stifling <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/you-protest-you-pay-education-minister-s-bid-to-bolster-free-speech-at-universities-20180921-p5057h.html">free speech</a> on campuses. </p>
<p>The term has been used widely over the past decade. Most infamously, in former senator Fraser Anning’s 2018 “final solution” speech to parliament he <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/both-sides-slam-anning-over-final-solution-speech-that-praised-white-australia-policy">denounced</a> cultural Marxism as “not a throwaway line, but a literal truth”. </p>
<p>But is cultural Marxism actually taking over our universities and academic thinking? Using a leading academic database, I crunched some numbers to find out.</p>
<h2>The back-story</h2>
<p>The term “cultural Marxism” moved into the media mainstream around 2016, when psychologist Jordan Peterson was protesting a Canadian bill prohibiting discrimination based on gender. Peterson <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/04/jordan-peterson-capitalism-postmodernism-ideology">blamed</a> cultural Marxism for phenomena like the movement to respect gender-neutral pronouns which, in his view, undermines freedom of speech. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-jordan-peterson-the-philosopher-of-the-fake-news-era-91308">Is Jordan Peterson the philosopher of the fake news era?</a>
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<p>But the term is much older. It seems first to have been used by writer <a href="https://slackbastard.anarchobase.com/?p=29456">Michael Minnicino</a> in his 1992 essay The New Dark Age, published by the Schiller Institute, a group associated with the fringe right wing figure <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/12/29/lyndon-larouche-obituary-conspiracist-with-a-well-connected-following-086493">Lyndon LaRouche</a>. </p>
<p>Around the turn of the century, the phrase was adopted by influential American conservatives. Commentator and three time presidential candidate Pat Buchanan targeted “cultural Marxism” for many perceived <a href="https://documentarylovers.com/film/cultural-marxism-the-corruption-of-america/">ills facing America</a>, from womens’ rights and gay activism to the decline of traditional education. </p>
<p>The term has since gone global, sadly making its way into Norwegian terrorist Anders Brevik’s <a href="http://www.talk2action.org/story/2011/7/23/8287/32273/Front_Page/Anders_Behring_Breivik_Soldier_in_the_Christian_Right_Culture_Wars">justificatory screed</a>. Andrew Bolt used it <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/cultural-marxism--the-ultimate-postfactual-dog-whistle-20171102-gzd7lq.html">as early as 2002</a>. In 2013, Cory Bernardi was <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13504630.2020.1787822">warning</a> against cultural Marxism as “one of the most corrosive influences on society”.</p>
<p>By 2016, the year the Peterson affair unfolded, Nick Cater and Chris Uhlmann were blaming it for undermining free speech in <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/inquirer/there-was-a-time-when-journalists-backed-free-speech/news-story/4704bea05341f9f674cb526470260601">The Australian</a>. The idea has since been adopted by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5aVm7nwHTM">Mark Latham</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/malcolmrobertsonenation/posts/1644812038996003?comment_id=1645216642288876&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R%22%7D">Malcolm Roberts</a>.</p>
<h2>So, what is cultural Marxism?</h2>
<p>Insofar as it goes beyond a fairly broad term of enmity, the accusers of “cultural Marxism” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/19/cultural-marxism-a-uniting-theory-for-rightwingers-who-love-to-play-the-victim">point to</a> two main protagonists behind this ideology. </p>
<p>The first is Italian Marxist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Gramsci">Antonio Gramsci</a>. Writing under imprisonment by the fascists in the 1920s, Gramsci argued the left needed to capture the bureaucracy, universities and media-cultural institutions if it wished to hold power. </p>
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<img alt="Colourful array of notebooks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355939/original/file-20200902-14-u5uuy4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A collection of notebooks in which Antonio Gramsci developed his ideas while in prison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second alleged culprits are “neo-Marxist” theorists associated with the <a href="https://www.iep.utm.edu/frankfur/">Frankfurt School of Social Research</a>. These “critical theorists” drew on psychoanalysis, social theory, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aesthetics">aesthetics</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy">political economy</a> to understand modern societies. They became especially concerned with how fascism could win the allegiance of ordinary people, despite its appeals to aversive prejudice, hatred and militarism.</p>
<p>When Hitler came to power, the Frankfurt School was quickly shut down, and its key members forced into exile. Then, as Uhlmann has <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/inquirer/there-was-a-time-when-journalists-backed-free-speech/news-story/4704bea05341f9f674cb526470260601">narrated</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Frankfurt School academics […] transmitted the intellectual virus to the US and set about systematically destroying the culture of the society that gave them sanctuary.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While Soviet communism faltered, the story continues, the cultural Marxist campaign to commandeer our culture was marching triumphantly through the humanities departments of Western universities and outwards into wider society. </p>
<p>Today, critics argue it shapes the “<a href="https://spectator.us/whats-wrong-cultural-marxism/">political correctness</a>” that promotes minority causes and polices public debate on issues like the environment, gender and immigration - posing a grave threat to liberal values.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-fake-free-speech-crisis-could-imperil-academic-freedom-144272">How a fake 'free speech crisis' could imperil academic freedom</a>
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<h2>What the numbers show</h2>
<p>If the conservative anxieties about cultural Marxism reflected reality, we would expect to see academic publications on Marx, Gramsci and critical theorists crowding out libertarian, liberal and conservative voices. </p>
<p>To test this, I conducted <a href="https://www.academia.edu/43199791/The_Specter_of_Cultural_Marxism_">quantitative research on the academic database JStor</a>, tracking the frequency of names and key ideas in all academic article and chapter titles published globally between 1980 and 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Nietzsche with a very impressive moustache." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1023&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1023&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355703/original/file-20200901-20-dp7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1023&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By 1987, more academic articles were being published about Nietzsche than Marx.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1987, Karl Marx himself ceded the laurel as the most written about thinker in academic humanities, replaced by Friedrich Nietzsche – revered by many fascists <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Fascism-and-the-Masses-The-Revolt-Against-the-Last-Humans-1848-1945/Landa/p/book/9780367893064">including Benito Mussolini</a> – and Martin Heidegger, another figure whose far-right politics were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/mar/13/martin-heidegger-black-notebooks-reveal-nazi-ideology-antisemitism">hardly progressive</a>. </p>
<p>Over the past 40 years, the alleged mastermind of cultural Marxism, Gramsci, attracted 480 articles. This compares with the 407 publications on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek">Friedrich Hayek</a>, arguably the leading influence on the neoliberal free market reforms of the last decades. </p>
<p>The “Frankfurt School” featured in less than 200 titles, and critical theorist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Marcuse">Herbert Marcuse</a> (identified by Uhlmann as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/22/chris-uhlmann-should-mind-his-language-on-cultural-marxism">a key transmitter</a> of the cultural Marxist “virus” in the US) was the subject of just over 220. </p>
<p>Over the last decade, the most written about thinker was <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/deleuze/">the neo-Nietzschean theorist</a>, Giles Deleuze, featuring in 770 titles over 2010-19. </p>
<p>But the notoriously esoteric ideas of Deleuze - and his language of “machinic assemblages”, “strata”, “flows” and “intensities” - are hardly Marxist. His ideas have been a significant influence on the right-wing Neoreactionary or “<a href="https://breakermag.com/heres-the-dark-enlightenment-explainer-you-never-wanted/">dark enlightenment</a>” movement.</p>
<h2>Cultural, not Marxist</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Book cover reading 'The force of non-violence'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355706/original/file-20200901-18-13oghow.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Post-structuralist thinkers like Judith Butler are today more prominent than Marxist scholars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Penguin Random House</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The last four decades have seen a relative <em>decline</em> of Marxist thought in academia. Its influence has been <a href="https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/03/25/39717444/jordan-petersons-idea-of-cultural-marxism-is-totally-intellectually-empty">superseded</a> by “post-structuralist” (or “postmodernist”) thinkers like Jacques Derrida, Michel Foucault, Judith Butler and Deleuze. </p>
<p>Post-structuralism is primarily indebted to thinkers of the European “<a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780333650141">conservative revolution</a>” led by Nietzsche and Heidegger. </p>
<p>Where Marxism is built on hopes for reason, revolution and social progress, post-structuralist thinkers roundly reject such optimistic “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Postmodern-Condition-Knowledge-History-Literature/dp/0816611734">grand narratives</a>”. </p>
<p>Post-structuralists are as <a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/us/jameson.htm">preoccupied with culture</a> as our conservative news columnists. But their analyses of identity and difference <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Cultural-Turn-Selected-Postmodern-1983-1998/dp/1844673499">challenge the primacy Marxism affords to economics</a> as much as they oppose liberal or conservative ideas.</p>
<p>Quantitative research bears out the idea that “cultural Marxism” is indeed a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/cultural-marxism--the-ultimate-postfactual-dog-whistle-20171102-gzd7lq.html">post-factual dog whistle</a>” and an intellectual confusion masquerading as higher insight. </p>
<p>A spectre of Marxism has survived the cold war. It now haunts the culture wars.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139654/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Sharpe works for Deakin University, in the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship & Globalization.</span></em></p>An examination of academic publications since 1980 suggests the status of ‘cultural Marxism’ has been greatly exaggerated.Matthew Sharpe, Associate Professor in Philosophy, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135492019-03-18T02:45:46Z2019-03-18T02:45:46ZNSW election likely to be close, and Mark Latham will win an upper house seat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264285/original/file-20190318-28471-q9waqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One Nation's Mark Latham will likely win a Senate seat at the NSW election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales election will be held on March 23. Last week, a Newspoll had a 50-50 tie, while a ReachTEL poll gave Labor a 51-49 lead. At the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/guide/preview">2015 election</a>, the Coalition won 54 of the 93 seats, Labor 34, the Greens three and independents two. The Coalition won the two party vote by a 54.3-45.7 margin.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-gains-in-newspoll-after-weak-economic-report-labor-barely-ahead-in-nsw-113266">Poll wrap: Labor gains in Newspoll after weak economic report; Labor barely ahead in NSW</a>
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<p>Since the 2015 election, the Coalition has lost Orange, to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and Wagga Wagga, to an independent at byelections. The Coalition enters this election with 52 seats, and would need to lose six seats to lose its majority. Labor needs to gain 13 seats for an outright majority. If Labor gains ten seats and the Greens hold their three seats, a Labor/Greens government could be formed.</p>
<p>On the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/guide/pendulum">pendulum</a>, the Coalition holds six seats by 3.2% or less. The current poll swing is about 4.8% to Labor, so Labor would be expected to win these six seats, depriving the Coalition of a majority unless they gain a seat held by a crossbencher.</p>
<p>Labor’s difficulty is that the Coalition has no seats held between a 3.2% and a 6.2% margin. On the pendulum, Labor would need a 6.7% swing to gain the ten seats needed for a Labor/Greens majority. This suggests Labor needs to win the two party vote by a 52.4-47.6 margin.</p>
<p>The pendulum is a useful tool, but swings are never completely uniform. Owing to random variation in the size of swings, analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/03/a-token-post-about-modelling-2019-nsw.html">Kevin Bonham</a> expects a seat outcome of about 44 Coalition, 41 Labor, three Greens and five Others on the current polls. One side or the other could get lucky and win more seats than expected.</p>
<p>The last NSW statewide polls are a week old now. A key question is whether the final two weeks make a difference. The unpopularity of the federal government could assist state Labor.</p>
<p>The Poll Bludger has details of Daily Telegraph YouGov Galaxy <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/17/yougov-galaxy-50-50-goulburn-51-49-to-liberal-in-penrith/">seat polls</a> of Goulbourn and Penrith, presumably conducted last week from samples of 530-550. In Goulbourn, there was a 50-50 tie (56.6-43.4 to Liberal in 2015). Primary votes were 38% Liberal, 37% Labor, 8% Shooters, 6% One Nation and 4% Greens. Gladys Berejiklian led Michael Daley as better Premier by 43-30.</p>
<p>In Penrith, the Liberals led by 51-49 (56.2-43.8 to Liberal in 2015). Primary votes were 42% Liberal, 38% Labor, 9% One Nation and 6% Greens. Berejiklian led Daley by 51-30 as better Premier. Seat polls have been very unreliable at past elections.</p>
<h2>One Nation’s Mark Latham will win an upper house seat</h2>
<p>The NSW upper house has 42 members, with half up for election every four years. The 21 members are elected using statewide proportional representation. The quota for election is low: just 1/22 of the vote, or 4.55%.</p>
<p>NSW uses optional preferential voting for its upper house. A single “1” above the line will only apply to that party’s candidates. Voters may put “2”, “3”, etc above the line for preferences to other parties after their most preferred party is eliminated. To vote below the line, voters must number at least 15 boxes for a formal vote. There is no group ticket voting in NSW.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/guide/legislative-council-ballot/">current upper house</a>, the Coalition holds 20 of 42 seats, Labor 12, the Greens four, the Shooters and Christian Democrats two each, Animal Justice one and former Green Jeremy Buckingham has the last seat. </p>
<p>The seats to be elected in 2019 were last up at the massive Coalition landslide of 2011. Eleven Coalition, five Labor, two Greens and one each for the Christian Democrats, Shooters and Buckingham are up for re-election. As the Coalition will not do as well as in 2011, they are certain to lose seats, and Labor is certain to gain.</p>
<p>According to the ABC’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/guide/legislative-council">Antony Green</a>, 83% of ballot papers in 2015 were single “1” votes above the line. Owing to the high rate of exhausted preferences, parties with primary votes about 2% win seats. In the four elections since the current system was introduced in 2003, the lowest primary vote to win was Animal Justice in 2015 with just 1.8%, and the highest primary vote to lose was Pauline Hanson in 2011 with 2.4%.</p>
<p>As a result of the low quota for election, One Nation’s lead candidate, former federal Labor leader Mark Lathem, is certain of election. The Shooters are also certain to win at least one seat; they are assisted by drawing the left-most column on the ballot paper. Various left and right-wing micro parties could be fighting it out for the last seats.</p>
<h2>SA Galaxy: 52-48 to state Liberals</h2>
<p>A year after the March 2018 South Australian election, we have our first SA state poll. In this <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/16/yougov-galaxy-52-48-liberal-south-australia/">YouGov Galaxy</a> poll for The Sunday Mail, conducted March 12-14 from a sample of 844, the Liberals led by 52-48 (51.9-48.1 at the election).</p>
<p>On primary votes, both major parties are up at the expense of SA Best. Primary votes were 42% Liberals (38.0% at the election), 37% Labor (32.8%), 7% SA Best (14.1%) and 7% Greens (6.7%). Incumbent Steven Marshall had a 46-26 lead over Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas as better Premier.</p>
<h2>Additional national Essential questions</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Essential-Report-110319-D2.pdf">full report</a> from last week’s national Essential poll is now available. 51% (down two since December and down five since October) thought Australia is not doing enough to address climate change), 27% (up three and up four) thought we are doing enough and 11% (up two and up four) thought we are doing too much. The <a href="https://essentialvision.com.au/?s=climate&searchbutton=Search">biggest decline</a> in not doing enough since October was with Coalition voters (down 11 to 34%).</p>
<p>In a question on trust in institutions, there were 5-7 point improvements since September in trust in state parliament, federal parliament, trade unions and political parties. There were 3-4 point declines in trust in federal police, the High Court and the ABC. Police were on top with 66% trust, with the ABC trusted by 51%. Despite a seven-point improvement, political parties are still last on 22%.</p>
<h2>Electoral system not at fault for Fraser Anning</h2>
<p>In the wake of the far-right terrorist atrocity in Christchurch, there has been much condemnation of independent senator Fraser Anning’s <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/outrage-as-fraser-anning-blames-nz-attacks-on-muslim-immigration">anti-Muslim comments</a>. Anning won just 19 personal votes below the line, so how was he fairly elected?</p>
<p>The whole <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-QLD.htm">One Nation ticket</a> had over 250,000 votes or 1.19 quotas in Queensland at the 2016 federal election. Pauline Hanson was immediately elected, and her surplus was passed on to One Nation’s second candidate, Malcolm Roberts, who had just 77 below the line votes. Roberts was then elected on strong preference flows from other populist right parties. When Roberts was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Roberts_(politician)#Senate_eligibility_and_aftermath">disqualified by the High Court</a> in October 2017 over Section 44 issues, his seat went to Anning, One Nation’s third candidate.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-30-coalition-26-labor-9-greens-4-one-nation-3-nxt-4-others-63449">Final Senate results: 30 Coalition, 26 Labor, 9 Greens, 4 One Nation, 3 NXT, 4 Others</a>
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<h2>Last week’s Brexit votes</h2>
<p>From March 12-14, there were several key Brexit votes in the UK House of Commons. I reviewed these votes for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/16/brexit-minus-two-weeks-perhaps/">The Poll Bludger</a>. PM Theresa May is threatening hard Leavers with a long Brexit delay if they don’t vote for her deal.</p>
<p>The last paragraph of the linked article about polling is out of date. A <a href="https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/03/16/03/11059206-6815835-And_a_Survation_poll_for_the_Daily_Mail_found_that_that_Conserva-a-5_1552706470534.jpg">Survation poll</a> for The Daily Mail taken March 15 – after the Commons votes – gave Labour a 39-35 lead over the Conservatives. This poll is currently out of alignment with other polls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113549/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent polling indicates that no one party will be able to win a majority government in the upcoming NSW election, with Labor needing to gain six seats to deprive the Coalition from a victory.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1067062018-11-09T03:06:58Z2018-11-09T03:06:58ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Turnbull’s QandA appearance, Morrison’s bus tour, and antics in NSW<figure>
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<p>Michelle Grattan speaks to University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini about the week in Australian politics. They discuss Malcolm Turnbull’s special interview on ABC’s QandA, Scott Morrison’s bus tour campaign in Queensland, former federal Labor opposition leader Mark Latham running as a One Nation candidate in the NSW upper house, and Luke Foley resigning as NSW opposition leader over alleged inappropriate behaviour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks to Deep Saini about the week in Australian politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/999412018-07-13T04:40:32Z2018-07-13T04:40:32ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Latham’s liaison with One Nation in Longman, live sheep exports and the ACCC’s criticism on energy<figure>
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<p>Michelle Grattan speaks with University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Nicholas Klomp about the week in politics. They discuss including Mark Latham teaming up with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to make robocalls attacking Shorten in the Longman byelection, the live sheep trade debate, and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s criticism of the energy market, including their recommendation for government involvement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks with Nicholas Klomp about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773592017-05-08T14:10:38Z2017-05-08T14:10:38ZLatham to fight for ‘western civilisation’ from the Liberal Democrats’ kennel<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168408/original/file-20170508-20740-1o7668i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mark Latham also bought into a couple of specific well-publicised Labor controversies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Latham's Outsiders/Facebook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At Monday’s Labor caucus meeting, Queensland MP Graham Perrett asked whether there was any process for removing the pictures of Billy Hughes and Mark Latham from the room’s wall.</p>
<p>Bill Shorten countered that “they are there as a reminder”.</p>
<p>It’s been a good while since Latham has had much in common with the party he once led, but he can still boil the blood of some of its members.</p>
<p>Earlier on Monday, the former federal opposition leader had continued his idiosyncratic post-parliamentary journey by announcing he is joining the Liberal Democrats, the libertarian outfit which has one senator, David Leyonhjelm.</p>
<p>Kaila Murnain, Labor’s general secretary in New South Wales, quickly tweeted that Latham was not a financial member of the NSW ALP. “Party officers tonight resolved that if Mark Latham ever attempts to re-join the ALP, that his application be rejected.”</p>
<p>Not that there’s any prospect – as far ahead as one can ever see with this maverick – that Latham would be making any such application.</p>
<p>He has little but bitter condemnation for his old kennel – in contrast to what he sees as the attractions of his new political abode.</p>
<p>“Recently I attended the Liberty Conference in Sydney, a wonderful forum supporting freedom of speech and opposing PC, social engineering and cultural Marxism”, he posted on Mark Latham’s Outsiders.</p>
<p>“Debate and ideas flourished, unlike today’s Labor Party, which has barred me from speaking at membership events in Western Sydney (via Sussex Street Stalinist Rose Jackson).”</p>
<p>“I support 80-90% of the Liberal Democrats platform, pretty good for someone with strong views formed over a long period of time. Plus, as a party of freedom, the Liberal Democrats allow room for dissent and diversity of opinion (Shorten Labor is only interested in diversity of skin colour, gender and sexuality – Safe Schools BS).”</p>
<p>Latham also bought into a couple of specific well-publicised Labor controversies on Monday.</p>
<p>Shorten was on the back foot over a Labor TV advertisement, shown in Queensland at the weekend, committing to developing Australian skills and employing “Australians First”. The ad featured a sea of white faces.</p>
<p>Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos suggested Labor was trying to target supporters of One Nation, which is polling strongly in Queensland, while many in the ALP were angry.</p>
<p>Shorten sought to play down the matter while conceding an error had been made. “Some people have pointed out the lack of diversity in the ALP’s video about local jobs. Fair cop. A bad oversight that won’t happen again,” he tweeted.</p>
<p>But frontbencher Anthony Albanese, in comments some took as reflecting leadership rivalry, climbed into the issue, describing the ad as a “shocker” and saying it was “not the sort of ad that I want my party to be promoting”.</p>
<p>Latham’s assessment was brutal in the opposite direction and, for him, typical. “Nobody gives a stuff about any of this diversity stuff except the elites,” he told Andrew Bolt on Sky.</p>
<p>He also dissed a controversial video done by Labor’s Sam Dastyari, where the senator posed in front of modest Sydney houses to make a point about housing affordability.</p>
<p>Dastyari was “sneering at people because they live in a humble dwelling”, Latham said.</p>
<p>“Sam Dastyari is unfortunately an example of what’s gone wrong with today’s Labor, he’s out there with the anti-white racism slurring people just because of their skin colour,” he said. Besides, Dastyari was signed up to ethnic groups who were driving prices up – the best thing that could be done for housing affordability was to cut migration.</p>
<p>In talking about his decision to join the Liberal Democrats, Latham declared himself not only up for the fight for free speech in Australia but for a wider battle. “We are also in a struggle to save our Western civilisation,” he said, condemning identity politics and the “rolling back of enlightenment values”. </p>
<p>Shades of Tony Abbott, who said last week: “It will help the Liberal Party if we place ourselves firmly on the side of Western civilisation against its critics, and of Australian values against the politically correct wreckers and cynics”.</p>
<p>Latham said he was “against anyone who wants to roll back the principles of meritocracy. There was once a time when the Labor Party stood for merit, it was indeed the great Whitlam principle.”</p>
<p>Pressed on whether his new allegiance meant he might attempt a parliamentary comeback, Latham said: “If the time comes when I thought the best way to muster the fight was in one of the parliaments of the country, yeah, I’d do that.”</p>
<p>Leyonhjelm said Latham now realised that values and principles were more significant than tribal loyalties.</p>
<p>As to whether Latham might seek a second parliamentary career: “I said to him last weekend that going back into parliament was a bit like getting married a second time – a triumph of hope over expectation. He said he had been married a second time – and was much better at it.”</p>
<p>Leyonhjelm’s interpretation was that his new party member wasn’t ruling out another tilt. He’d have to get preselection, of course.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
It’s been a good while since Mark Latham has had much in common with the party he once led, but he can still boil the blood of some of its members.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/754152017-03-29T12:31:10Z2017-03-29T12:31:10ZUnleashed Latham too opinionated even for an increasingly opinionated Sky<p>Mark Latham’s latest stint on Sky News was always likely to end in tears but he had to do a lot of bad stuff before he was sacked on Wednesday.</p>
<p>He had insulted two fellow Sky presenters, and the wife of one of them, as well as an ABC host. He’d suggested a Sydney Boys High School student was gay when the boy participated in a video for International Women’s Day. He’d got stuck into the teenage daughter of the Reserve Bank governor. And he had accused the head of the prime minister’s department of hiring people based on “the shape of their genitalia”.</p>
<p>Latham’s business model in his media work is based on delivering insult and outrage. It has blown up in grief before, including in an earlier stint on Sky, and as a columnist with the Australian Financial Review.</p>
<p>Sky News boss Angelos Frangopoulos, announcing the termination of Latham’s contract, tweeted on Wednesday:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"846970000057548801"}"></div></p>
<p>Latham appeared across programs but when Sky gave him Outsiders, with former Liberal MP Ross Cameron and Rowan Dean, editor of The Spectator Australia, it’s hard to believe it would have expected the tone would be “respectful”. Respectful is not the Latham way.</p>
<p>A tweet from a suddenly revived account, previously linked to Latham, said yesterday:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"847037923014799360"}"></div></p>
<p>Frangopoulos knew the risks. He said in 2015: “Mark could have forged a great career providing his strong and incisive commentary on the political landscape, but as we found out at Sky, too, things just go off the rails.”</p>
<p>Outsiders has been at the extreme end of the increasing trend on Sky – now wholly owned by News Corp – towards highly opinionated, poke-them-in-the-eye Fox-News-style programs, mainly shown at night (although Outsiders is Sunday morning). The overall lean is clearly to the right, despite the political mixture of participants.</p>
<p>Latham has been forced out because his position was unsustainable, given the blowback from colleagues at Sky and leading politicians such as Education Minister Simon Birmingham and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.</p>
<p>But some others on Sky’s “shouty” programs, including presenters and guests, display only minimal restraint in what they say and the language in which they say it. If they’re against someone or something, almost anything goes. Sledging is a tool of their trade.</p>
<p>This can be defended in the name of free speech and no one would want to censor what sometimes descends into appalling nastiness. But it can and should be called out for demeaning the political debate and debasing the media. Those who find comfort in the fact that few are watching pay TV at night miss the point. Enough of those involved in politics get a cue from it.</p>
<p>Earlier this week Mark Day, who has more than half a century of journalistic experience including as an editor and now writes for The Australian’s media section, had a column headed “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/opinion/mark-day/fox-model-prompts-debate-over-future-format-of-sky-news/news-story/abd9f13c04a797bedc4b8dad2bade4a5">Fox model prompts debate over future format of Sky News</a>”.</p>
<p>Day wrote: “Sky’s shift to full primetime opinion programming – or ‘engaging conversation’ as insiders characterise it - broadly follows the highly successful Fox News format in the US, frequently criticised for its strong conservative leanings.”</p>
<p>“Our Sky presenters generally lean towards conservative – sometimes disconcertingly so. Paul Murray, for instance, presents as far right by wearing his admiration for Pauline Hanson on his sleeve, yet he regularly tops the viewing numbers for all Foxtel channels at 9PM, proving that viewers will tune in to disagree as much as agree with a presenter.”</p>
<p>Day noted that “the high value of opinion” was reflected in Outsiders “which regularly wins its Sunday morning slot”.</p>
<p>He went on to question the trend. “Increasingly I have felt that opinion programming may have gone a step too far. Would it not be better to pull back to the core function of providing more news, at least part of the time?”</p>
<p>Pointing out the amount of international material available to Sky, Day wrote that: “We don’t see this material now because the numbers show audiences prefer opinion and debate programming. That is, more people want debates and controversial points of view than straight news reports of muggings in Melbourne or car crashes in Katoomba.</p>
<p>"But that doesn’t mean there is zero demand for news. Why not both, then?”</p>
<p>Contemporary politics and media are both heavily driven by what the research indicates the audiences – voters and viewers – are perceived to want. Up to a point, that’s OK – you don’t win votes or eyeballs by dishing up an unpalatable fare. </p>
<p>But when taken too far this results in bad policy from the politicians and media that delivers endless, fractious argument. Neither serves the public well.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/49h57-691b37?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/49h57-691b37?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Mark Latham’s latest stint on Sky News was always likely to end in tears but he had to do a lot of bad stuff before he was sacked on Wednesday. He had insulted two fellow Sky presenters, and the wife of…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/540432016-02-03T00:26:31Z2016-02-03T00:26:31ZFactCheck Q&A: is domestic violence in Australia on the decline?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109931/original/image-20160202-32254-1mznp3i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Panellists discussed domestic violence on Q&A on February 1, 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9:35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, February 1, 2016.</span></figcaption>
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<blockquote>
<p>Ronaldo Aquino (audience member): Just over a week ago, Mark Latham alleged that the domestic violence figures are actually on the decline and he was chastised for it in social media and I checked the Australian Institute of Criminology and he was actually right. The figures actually peaked around 2007. So is this a case of the squeaky wheel gets the grease?<br></p>
<p>Tony Jones: … It might be a job for our fact checking unit on the issue of the statistics. <strong>– Q&A audience member Ronald Aquino and host Tony Jones, February 1, 2016</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Domestic or intimate partner violence is a common problem in Australia. A reported <a href="http://anrows.org.au/sites/default/files/Fast%20Facts%20-%20Violence%20against%20women%20key%20statistics.pdf">one in six women, and one in 19 men</a>, experience physical or sexual violence from a current or former partner in their lifetime. </p>
<p>Former politician Mark Latham raised the issue of domestic violence in a recent <a href="http://www.triplem.com.au/sydney/shows/lathamland/blog/listen-and-download-the-new-lathamland-podcast/">podcast</a>. He didn’t actually use the term “decline” in his podcast in relation to domestic violence rates, but he did <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/mark-latham-attacks-rosie-batty-elitists-domestic-violence-on-triple-m-show-20160122-gmbhj6.html#ixzz3y11fIb61">say</a> surveys show women are safer than ever before, and <a href="https://au.tv.yahoo.com/sunrise/video/watch/30640352/mark-latham-defends-domestic-violence-claims/#page1">told</a> Channel 7 viewers recently that the rate of domestic assault and incidents has come down. </p>
<p>So how true it is for the audience member to say the data shows rates are declining?</p>
<p>To answer this, we can look to three key sources of national data that can be compared over time: intimate partner homicide figures collected by the Australian Institute of Criminology, the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Personal Safety Survey, and reported police statistics. </p>
<h2>Intimate partner homicide</h2>
<p>According to the Australian Institute of Criminology’s <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/about_aic/research_programs/nmp/0001.html">National Homicide Monitoring Program</a>, rates of intimate partner homicide have <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/rip/rip38/rip38.pdf">declined</a> since reaching a peak in 2007-08. </p>
<p>For example, the most recently published <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/mr/21-40/mr23/04_homicide-2010-12.html">figures</a> report that in the two-year period between 2010 and 2012 there were 109 intimate partner homicides.</p>
<p>That is a small decrease from the <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/mr/21-40/mr21/04_homicide.html">122 intimate partner homicides</a> for the proceeding two-year period 2008 to 2010.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109924/original/image-20160202-32247-r624on.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/rip/rip38/rip38.pdf">Source: Australian Institute of Criminology NHMP 1989–90 to 2011–12</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This trend follows a decline in homicides generally, though the rates do vary from year to year. The 2011-12 figures show a small increase in people being killed by their intimate partners from the 2010-11 period. </p>
<h2>The ABS Personal Safety Survey</h2>
<p>Not all domestic violence ends in a death, so not all domestic violence shows up in intimate partner homicide data. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4906.0">ABS Personal Safety Survey</a> is the most comprehensive national survey of interpersonal violence in Australia and has been run twice – in 2005 and 2012. A fresh survey is due to run in 2016. </p>
<p>It asks survey respondents to self-report whether they have experienced various forms of violence either in the last 12 months, or since the age of 15. </p>
<p>In its 2012 report, the Personal Safety Survey found that 17% of all adult women (1,479,900) and 5.3% of all adult men (448,000) surveyed had <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4906.0Chapter7002012">experienced violence by a partner since the age of 15</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109926/original/image-20160202-32257-zaohgj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4906.0Chapter7002012">ABS. Footnotes: (a) Includes physical violence and/or sexual violence. (b) The term 'partner' is used to describe a person the respondent lives with, or lived with at some point, in a married or de facto relationship.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In order to compare rates over <em>time</em> however, we need to look at the rates of partner violence reported in the last 12 months, between the Personal Safety Survey conducted in 2005 and the one conducted in 2012.</p>
<p>The ABS <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4923E61E9B7AD9A0CA257C3D000D8520?opendocument">reported</a> that between 2005 and 2012 there was no statistically significant change in the proportion of women and men who reported experiencing partner violence in the 12 months prior to the survey.</p>
<p>As the figures are based on self-reports by individuals about their victimisation, the Personal Safety Survey provides the best data we currently have about rates of domestic violence victimisation in Australia. </p>
<p>The first Personal Safety Survey was conducted in 2005. Prior to that was the Women’s Safety Survey of 1996. The 2005 Personal Safety Survey <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4906.0Main+Features12005%20(Reissue)?OpenDocument">reports</a> that “a smaller proportion of women reported violence in the 12 months prior to the survey in 2005 than in 1996”.</p>
<p>However, the ABS also cautions that extreme care must be taken when comparing the two survey results as some of the questions were different.</p>
<h2>Police family incident statistics</h2>
<p>Police statistics are another key source of information about rates of domestic violence. </p>
<p>In Australian states and territories there is not a single criminal offence of “domestic”, “family” or “partner” violence. Instead, informed estimates can be made based on data recording the number of domestic or family violence “incidents” attended by police. </p>
<p>The data vary between states and territories. In Victoria, for example, the Crimes Statistics Agency (CSA) reports a steady increase in the rates of family violence incidents attended by Victoria Police <a href="http://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/home/crime+statistics/year+ending+september+2015/family+incidents">over the last five years</a>. </p>
<p>In the year ending September 30, 2015, the CSA reported a Victorian family violence incident rate of 1216.2 per 100,000 people. That is an increase of 62.7% from the year ending September 30, 2011.</p>
<p>So we know more victims are coming forward. We don’t know if that’s because of increased awareness of domestic violence in the community, or improved police and justice responses, or better available support services. </p>
<p>But when we consider that the majority (80-95%) of self-reported victims of violence from a current partner <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/25AF91125718ADF1CA257C3D000D856A?opendocument">did not report the violence to police</a>, it may be some time before police statistics provide an accurate measure of any changes in the extent problem.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Despite small decreases in intimate partner <em>homicides</em>, Australian data from the last decade overall does not indicate that domestic violence is in decline. </p>
<p>The best available national data suggests the domestic violence victimisation rate is unchanged over the last decade, while police data shows substantial increases in the rate of incidents attended by police.</p>
<p>However, such increases in police statistics may indicate that more victims are coming forward and seeking support. It is difficult to know for sure whether or not rates of domestic violence are really increasing. <strong>– Anastasia Powell</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>This is a sound analysis. I would highlight the issue of under-reporting, as mentioned by the author. Under-reporting does make it difficult to make a broad statement that domestic violence is in decline. There is increased reporting, but does this just reflect a change in our attitude towards reporting domestic violence?</p>
<p>Police services are also now more vigilant in ensuring that action is taken in domestic violence situations. Our definitions of what is considered domestic violence are also becoming more broad, which can also affect reporting figures. I agree with the author’s verdict. <strong>– Terry Goldsworthy</strong></p>
<p><em>UPDATE: This article was updated at 12.30pm on February 3, 2016 to include information on the 1996 Women’s Safety Survey.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><em>The National Sexual Assault, Family & Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.</em></p>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anastasia Powell receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Criminology Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Goldsworthy is on the management committee of the Gold Coast Centre against Sexual Violence.</span></em></p>Are domestic violence figures actually on the decline? FactCheck investigates.Anastasia Powell, Senior Research and ARC DECRA Fellow, Justice and Legal Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/448302015-07-23T20:13:12Z2015-07-23T20:13:12ZIt’s all about the leader at ALP conference, leaving less space for policymaking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89129/original/image-20150721-24304-9hio12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The ALP national conference has become a highly choreographed, stage-managed affair in recent times.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This weekend’s <a href="https://lab15.org.au">ALP national conference</a> is the first time Bill Shorten will take centre stage as a political leader. Since winning the federal Labor leadership in the wake of Labor’s defeat at the 2013 election, Shorten has kept a <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/bill-shorten-the-invisible-man-20150501-1mvxa6">reasonably low profile</a> as opposition leader.</p>
<p>The conference’s timing represents a litmus test for Shorten. In <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-shorten-support-sinks-deeper-as-alp-stretches-lead/story-fnc6vkbc-1227449968856">this week’s Newspoll</a>, Shorten recorded his lowest-ever approval rating as leader of 27%. This is a worrying number for the ALP, which has had a tendency to destabilise – and even remove – its leader based on <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gillard-used-polling-to-trigger-coup-20120214-1t49l.html">poor polling figures</a>. </p>
<p>The conference’s outcomes could revive Shorten’s fortunes or sink them further. What are the lessons of history as Shorten prepares for his moment in the spotlight?</p>
<h2>Past national conferences</h2>
<p>In 1969, another leader who had yet to face a federal election used the national conference as the starting point to articulate his own agenda. Then, Gough Whitlam – who obtained the leadership two years earlier – used the conference to argue forcefully for policy change within the ALP. As he told the <a href="http://www.whitlam.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/320823/Speech_by_Hon_EG_Whitlam_AC_QC_on_the_bestowing_of_Life_Membership_to_himself_and_Margaret_at_the_ALP_at_the_44th_ALP_National_Conference_2007.pdf">2007 conference</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[At] … the National Conference of 1969 … We re-wrote two-thirds of the platform. In particular, we established the principles for universal health care and for federal aid for all schools, government and non-government alike, on the basis of needs and priorities. We were enabled thereby to bury the sectarianism which had disfigured our society for a generation and had retarded education for a century.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These events are an example of the national conference serving its original intent, as it was designed in the <a href="http://archives.cap.anu.edu.au/cdi_anu_edu_au/xx/z1/PPD2011/11.%20ALP%20Constitution.pdf">ALP constitution</a>.</p>
<p>The conference, now held once every parliamentary term, is notionally the party’s supreme policymaking body. The decisions taken at the conference are theoretically binding on the elected ALP members of parliament. The conference, as laid out in the <a href="http://www.queenslandlabor.org/wp-content/uploads/2014-Qld-ALP-Rule-Book-Final.pdf">party rules</a>, is intended to serve as the major forum for the party to debate its policy decisions.</p>
<p>The national conference codifies these decisions, which are approved by its delegates. The decisions the conference makes are, according to the constitution, final. </p>
<p>The conference delegates are represented in an equal number from each Australian state and territory. They are elected both by branch members and each state party’s electoral college, which is comprised of union representatives and members of the ALP’s organisational wing. The vote is evenly divided between the two groups. </p>
<h2>A shift in focus</h2>
<p>Historically, the conference brings out a tension that still exists within the ALP today. </p>
<p>There are those within the party who seek to promote policies that adhere to the ALP’s more socially conscious agenda. But, increasingly, this objective has become secondary. Instead, the conference has become dominated by pragmatic political operatives who try to <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/05/02/factions-jockeying-over-key-alp-policies/14304888001826">craft agreements</a> before the conference starts in an attempt to stifle debate and project an image of party unity.</p>
<p>The recent focus of the national conference has therefore shifted. It is now used to serve a different purpose: a political marketing service. As a result of this trend, the conference has become a highly choreographed, stage-managed affair. </p>
<p>In 2007, the then-leader, Kevin Rudd, used his speech at the national conference to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-04-27/rudd-centre-stage-as-alp-gathering-kicks-off/2534064">road-test themes</a> he would later use in his successful election campaign. </p>
<p>Three years earlier, the ALP hastily labelled Mark Latham as a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/01/30/1075340839338.html?from=storyrhs">“New Sensation”</a>. It attempted to market the previously unpredictable leader as a modern political statesman ahead of his own election campaign.</p>
<h2>Lessons from the 2011 conference</h2>
<p>The last national conference is an example of how a tightly controlled affair can work against a leader. In 2011, Julia Gillard’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/julia-gillards-speech-in-full-20111201-1o9yu.html">speech</a> was overshadowed by her <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-04/rudd-gives-rousing-conference-speech/3712014">omission</a> of Rudd’s achievements as ALP leader. This further exacerbated the leadership tensions that Gillard’s speech was designed to dismiss.</p>
<p>This year’s conference will attempt to stabilise Shorten’s position as leader and set a platform for the campaign the ALP wishes to run at the federal election due next year. Expect the media to play up <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/labors-right-may-lose-control-of-conference-for-first-time-since-1984">divisions</a> between warring factions over policy issues. This narrative is in the ALP’s best interests if Shorten’s performance at the conference falters, as it did with Gillard. The ALP would prefer to be seen as squabbling internally over policy issues rather than over the viability of Shorten’s leadership.</p>
<p>During the last conference, the hot-button issue that sparked debate on the conference floor was same-sex marriage. The conference <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/national-affairs/alp-platform-changes-to-support-gay-marriage/story-fnba0rxe-1226212916021">voted</a> to change the party platform to support legalising same-sex marriage. Four years on, the party as a whole has yet to argue forcefully for its implementation.</p>
<p>This is because the ALP national conference has lost its policymaking significance of the past. Instead it has become a reflection of the leader’s standing within the party. Consequently, this year’s conference will be the event that defines Shorten’s leadership in 2015 – for better or worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ALP national conference has lost its policymaking significance of the past. Instead it has become a reflection of the leader’s standing within the party.Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/380862015-04-09T01:27:17Z2015-04-09T01:27:17ZBook review: The Latham Diaries, ten years on<p>In September 2005, Melbourne University Press (MUP) published former Labor opposition leader Mark Latham’s <a href="http://archive.uninews.unimelb.edu.au/view-54926.html">personal diaries</a>, covering the 11-year period he served in parliament. The book turned Latham, who resigned as leader and from parliament in January that year, into a pariah in the ALP’s eyes.</p>
<p>In the book, Latham does not hold back on his opinions of caucus colleagues, factional leaders, union heavyweights, business elites and journalists. The book caused a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/beazley-rides-the-storm/2005/09/23/1126982225916.html">sensation</a>. It not only included Latham’s own views, but recounted comments from other Labor caucus members and party figures, many of which were scathing.</p>
<p>Sales-wise, The Latham Diaries was a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/latham-diaries-a-lunchtime-sellout/2005/09/19/1126981979476.html">huge success</a>. MUP ordered a second print run before the book had even been released.</p>
<p>I first read the book in 2005. The book does contain vitriolic insults about political figures of the day. But what struck me then and has remained with me was that The Latham Diaries provided an excellent discussion of the parliamentary Labor Party in the wilderness years post-Paul Keating.</p>
<p>Given that the book was released so soon after Latham quit parliament, I decided a re-reading was warranted in order to determine how well the book had aged and if there were larger lessons that could be taken from it a decade on.</p>
<h2>An outsider within caucus</h2>
<p>From the time he was a backbencher in the Keating government through to his stint as leader, entries in the book often end with Latham declaring himself the outsider. Latham views himself as a lone operator who often finds only Keating and Gough Whitlam agreeing with his position and encouraging him to keep up “the good fight”.</p>
<p>Within the book Latham is a “true believer”, battling against the ALP’s machine men. But his view of Labor and what it stands for is a romanticised one.</p>
<p>Latham looks back with rose-coloured glasses to mythical glory days, when a purer ALP was committed to improving the lives of working-class Australians. He forgets the splits and factionalism that are just as much a part of ALP history as the campaigns for a minimum wage and universal health care.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74265/original/image-20150310-13543-1o6uvli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former prime minister Gough Whitlam was a mentor to Mark Latham during his time in Parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rejection of the old</h2>
<p>Latham despairs at Labor’s rejection of the legacy of the Hawke-Keating economic reforms. He claims that the ALP under Kim Beazley’s leadership was so eager to distance itself from the Hawke-Keating era that no-one – including Beazley – seemed to know what the party stood for.</p>
<p>For Latham, the wilderness years of opposition were unbearable. He is utterly contemptuous of Beazley’s attempts to gain government:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>After six years of Beazley’s small-target strategy, we face an identity crisis. The True Believers don’t know what we stand for and the swinging voters have stopped trying to find out.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Latham’s view was that the ALP should gain government because of the appeal of its policies, rather than strategic targeting and poll-driven responses to issues of the day.</p>
<h2>Out of step with his party</h2>
<p>One of the most interesting things about Latham is that his passion for economic reform – including reduction of tariffs, fiscal accountability, winding up generational reliance on welfare – and his belief in social capital was at the forefront of social democratic thinking in the late 1990s and early 2000s.</p>
<p>While the ALP was busy distancing itself from the economic reforms of the Hawke-Keating era, many social democrats in Europe and the US were using the reforms as a successful example of “Third Way” thinking. Latham was one of the leading advocates of <a href="http://international.westlaw.com.ezproxy.library.uwa.edu.au/result/default.wl?cfid=1&mt=WLIGeneralSubscription&origin=Search&srch=TRUE&utid=8&db=MELJPOL&rlt=CLID_QRYRLT7658958082&method=WIN&service=Search&eq=search&rp=%2fsearch%2fdefault.wl&sp=UWestAust-2003&query=latham&vr=2.0&fields=DA(2000)&action=Search&rltdb=CLID_DB10175146082&sv=Split&fmqv=s&fn=_top&rs=WLIN7.02%20.">Third Way politics</a> in Australia during this period and <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/33614920?q&versionId=44803634">published</a> on the topic.</p>
<p>The Latham Diaries provides an insight into Latham’s views on where the ALP should be heading. While interested in the stories and lessons told by Keating and Whitlam, for Latham the real excitement is always in the future:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>That’s the difference between us. I see a problem in the public arena and think: how do I solve it and explain the solution to people? Beazley sees a problem and thinks: how do I analyse it and exploit it?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Latham’s other area of concern focuses on his view that there is a social capital deficit in Australia which not only has a negative impact on political engagement, but also on the way in which we all live our lives. Latham regrets the lack of community that seems to pervade the sprawling Australian suburbs.</p>
<h2>ALP factionalism</h2>
<p>Throughout the book, it is clear that Latham understands how the factional system of the ALP works:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>My belief in adventurism means that I will always have an uneasy relationship with the NSW Right … I joined the Right in the mid-1980s for pragmatic reasons: in a two-faction state you had to join one of them to have any hope of preselection.</p>
<p>The faction, however, is based on a culture of anti-intellectualism. Policy is made through a series of deals rather than the public interest.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Latham’s own behaviour is at times partly driven as a response to the factional system:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Simon Crean’s leadership came under pressure from the factional and union interests opposed to organisational reform … I resolved to remain loyal to his leadership, mainly on principle but also out of self-interest, as this assisted my rehabilitation in caucus after three years on the backbench.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Like many former members of caucus, upon leaving parliament Latham reveals a hatred of the factional system and the rise of machine men controlling the party. His disdain for the “three roosters” – Stephen Smith, Wayne Swan and Stephen Conroy – is evident in many of the entries:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>These roosters have not learned anything from the leadership debacle. They are small-minded troublemakers and white-anters who would love to see me fall over to hurt Crean – two for the price of one.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74264/original/image-20150310-13550-ng8gzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mark Latham made clear his disdain for the ALP’s factional system, run by the likes of Stephen Conroy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The relationship between the press and caucus</h2>
<p>The contempt Latham has for the press gains momentum throughout the book. In particular, Latham targets:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the three gallery journalists who have run a ten-year critique on me are Oakes (Jabba), Grattan and Milne (the Dwarf).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Latham despises the culture of leaking among his colleagues. He quotes a June 2003 speech he gave supporting Simon Crean’s leadership:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If the push against our leader were to succeed, it would set a shocking precedent. This long campaign of leaking, backgrounding and sabotage would be legitimised within the ALP.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Following Crean’s departure as opposition leader, Latham assumes the role and tries to deal with the leaking within caucus:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve had my suspicions for some time now that Rudd has been feeding material to Oakes. Decided to set him up, telling Kevvie about our focus groups on Iraq. No such research exists … Today right on cue Jabba has written in The Bulletin.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Post-2004 election fallout</h2>
<p>Latham’s angst at the sacrifice of time with his family for his political career is genuine. He and his second wife, Janine, discussed whether or not he should continue in the role:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What can I do now? Three more years in this rotten job, three more years staring across the chamber at a Tory government … It’s tempting to pull the pin.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Having decided to remain as opposition leader, at the end of 2004 Latham suffered a second attack of <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Latham-laid-up-again-by-pancreatitis/2005/01/05/1104832174019.html">pancreatitis</a>, which he thinks was most likely a result of radiotherapy treatment he received for his cancer:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s all turned to seed: pancreatitis, time away from home, loss of privacy, impact on family, so many ficklers in politics, disdain for the media and the whingeing, gossiping, sickening caucus … that thing they call the Labor Party.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The relief Latham feels at his escape from the rigours of political life is evident.</p>
<h2>Lasting lessons</h2>
<p>While the book ends with Latham happy at being able to spend time with his family and regain his privacy, the reader is left with one over-arching question: how do we fix this problem?</p>
<p>Latham described an Australia where the country’s main reform party rejected its economic credentials, played small-target politics and refused to engage in the major debate on political philosophy of the late 20th century.</p>
<p>Ten years on, many of the complaints Latham made about the workings of Australia’s parliamentary system have moved from the secret inner sanctum of Canberra to everyday news events:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>In-depth policy debate appears to be a thing of the past as politicians from both sides simply repeat the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-27/we-will-stop-the-boats-promise-check/5474206">slogan of the day</a> at whatever event they happen to be at.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/liberal-leadership-crisis">Leadership issues</a> quickly come to dominate the news cycle.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/02/25/abbott-dismisses-leaks--internal-critics.html">Leaking</a> dominates the political environment. A mixture of disgruntled MPs seeking retribution and the ambitious looking to make friends in the press gallery provides the daily fodder that now dominates political coverage.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The flaws in our political system that Latham highlighted continue to affect us. Australia remains a poorer nation as a result. Ultimately, The Latham Diaries remains a seminal piece – not only having revealed the ALP’s inner workings, but having highlighted policy issues and structural problems that continue to be of concern a decade on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38086/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is Chair of The Conversation's Editorial Board.</span></em></p>The Latham Diaries remains a seminal piece – not only having revealed the ALP’s inner workings, but having highlighted policy issues and structural problems which continue to be of concern.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/196172013-11-07T19:37:49Z2013-11-07T19:37:49ZBook review: Not Dead Yet – What Future for Labor?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34531/original/63s2kf3g-1383714084.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a new book, former Labor leader Mark Latham and other prominent party figures attempt to diagnose the party's malaise.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is a sign of Labor’s crisis that Mark Latham, the party’s former parliamentary leader, has been re-admitted to polite centre-Left company. For his book <a href="http://www.blackincbooks.com/books/not-dead-yet">Not Dead Yet: What Future for Labor?</a>, Latham has extended his <a href="http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/not-dead-yet-labors-post-left-future">Quarterly Essay</a> of earlier this year to 140 pages and six prominent political figures (five men and one woman) have been invited to respond.</p>
<p>Behind Latham’s argument is a personal paradox. He is supportive of the trend towards economic liberalism in Australia since the 1980s and the consequent diminution in the role of politics, but he is emotionally committed to the belief that politics is still worth arguing about. Latham’s persistent radicalism is displaced to despair about the internal state of the ALP, anger at the conservative commentariat and concern about climate change.</p>
<p>To Latham, the old working class has disappeared and been replaced by aspirational, self-employed, entrepreneurial voters, while a welfare-dependent underclass has been “excluded from employment and all forms of social ambition”. At times Latham does admit that segments of the traditional working class survive, but they are cast as an industrial-era relic in “smokestack” industries whose unions exercise a malign impact on the ALP.</p>
<h2>The Keating model</h2>
<p>In Latham’s view, there was a place for grand political agency in the past. It is Paul Keating that Latham returns to again and again as a political model. The result is that Latham <a href="http://mattcowgill.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/back-to-the-future-with-mark-latham/">re-fights battles about economic policy</a> that were over long ago.</p>
<p>In a time now without heroes such as Keating, Latham is conscious of his own failings. In scrambling around for villains, current Labor senator <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=AW5">Kim Carr</a> is cast as a malign old Labor protectionist, and conservative columnist <a href="http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/">Andrew Bolt</a> receives several pages of refutation.</p>
<p>The most effective critique of Latham’s social analysis comes from <a href="http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/union-heavies/louise-tarrant">unionist Louise Tarrant</a>, who emphasises the low pay of many Australian workers and the growth in casual employment. I would add that Latham’s claim of a mass commitment to self-reliance obscures the dependence of many low-paid workers on in-kind government benefits in <a href="http://clubtroppo.com.au/2013/06/10/national-minimum-wage-role-and-rationales">health, education and family payments</a>.</p>
<p>Latham avoids engaging with the evidence of increased income inequality. He argues that the Left is too preoccupied with numerical measures of inequality and should instead consider the extent to which individuals meet the threshold of an ability to participate in civil society. </p>
<p>And yet, Latham retains an egalitarian streak. He is concerned by the example of the ability of wealthy private interests to mobilise public opinion against progressive policy. </p>
<p>As a solution to all this, Latham can only offer another appeal to the radiant past of Paul Keating, cast as a leader who could uniquely synthesise economic and social goals. To Latham, however, Keating means <a href="http://www.library.unisa.edu.au/bhpml/anniversary/1984.asp">Medicare</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rearvision/superannuation/4643610">compulsory superannuation</a> - not family payments.</p>
<h2>Party reform</h2>
<p>Latham’s proposals on <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-kevin-rudds-new-labor-party-15888">party reform</a> speak to his ambivalence about contemporary politics. To him, Labor’s union-based structure is out of step with reality and the party has become a plaything of subfactional bosses. Latham and other contributors such as MP Andrew Leigh and former Gillard adviser Nicholas Reece argue that Labor should adopt primaries open to all voters to select candidates. </p>
<p>Leigh and Reece extend their argument to contend that Labor MPs should have more autonomy to dissent from caucus decisions. They provide little consideration of how this would work in practice after the bruising experience of minority government. </p>
<p>Many of the supporters of primaries see them as a way to connect with Labor’s lost traditional supporters, but to Latham it is more about breaking the power of union-based subfactionalism. Therefore, he proposes draconian tests of competence, ministerial potential and community activism that prospective primary candidates would have to pass before admittance to the ballot. It is an approach that reveals limited faith in the competence of Labor voters.</p>
<h2>Policy approach</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=928&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=928&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=928&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1166&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1166&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34536/original/d6bgmjpg-1383716238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1166&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Black Inc</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Latham’s <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/12/02/1070127387388.html">original rise</a> to the Labor leadership reflected the party’s search for an effective response to John Howard’s populist conservatism. Since then, the Left may have won many of the “culture wars”, but immigration has firmed as a major political liability for the ALP. Latham offers little here. </p>
<p>Journalist Guy Rundle suggests that popular hostility to asylum seekers demonstrates that the Australian suburbs may not be the best of all possible worlds. Latham hints that the experience of “ethnic crime gangs” may impact on public attitudes to immigration. He links this contention to a critique of the arguments of Andrew Leigh that Labor should define itself as a “liberal” party. </p>
<p>Contemporary liberalism, Latham argues, has come to over-emphasise rights at the expense of civic responsibilities. As a consequence, Latham advocates a coercive approach to the “underclass” and advocates relocation of remote Indigenous populations. For education, Latham exults the “Asian” stereotype of parental involvement and pressure and the American charter school model.</p>
<p>Latham’s visions combines determinism and voluntarism. On one hand Labor must adjust to inexorable economic changes, but individuals should be considered entirely autonomous. Latham argues smokers and the obese can change their health simply by an exercise of will. As a consequence, he argues that their entitlements to health care should be limited.</p>
<p>The great issue on which Latham does see a role for political agency is the response to climate change. For him, this substitutes for the radical ambitions of past. On this topic, Latham engages in the cultural critique that he would deride the Left for in other contexts. Latham hints that climate change may challenge the entire structure of suburban affluence to which he pays homage elsewhere.</p>
<p>Latham’s own career encapsulates the dilemmas of Australian social democracy after the end of the post-war long boom. Former former minister Bob Carr was once like Latham: the young <a href="http://www.librarything.com/work/3846863/20688685">“ideas man”</a> of the NSW Labor Right. Carr evolved from his early social democratic roots to electoral success in the political game as an end in itself. </p>
<p>Latham’s ambitions have remained grander. For this reason, he at least remains a more admirable and interesting figure than Carr.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This piece originally referred to the title of the book as Not Dead Yet: Labor’s Post-Left Future. We apologise for the error.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19617/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Robinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is a sign of Labor’s crisis that Mark Latham, the party’s former parliamentary leader, has been re-admitted to polite centre-Left company. For his book Not Dead Yet: What Future for Labor?, Latham has…Geoffrey Robinson, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/100192012-10-07T23:50:49Z2012-10-07T23:50:49ZTony Abbott and women: how both sides have played the gender card<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/16260/original/7rckch5d-1349651946.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott greets Liberal MP Kelly O'Dwyer before an event in Melbourne. Does the Opposition Leader have an issue with women?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a discussion with ABC journalist Emma Alberici on Lateline last week, Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer defended Tony Abbott from attacks by Labor ministers who criticised his attitudes towards women. In the process, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3605170.htm">O’Dwyer claimed</a> that “what we’re seeing for the very first time in Australian political history is gender being used as a political weapon”.</p>
<p>However, O’Dwyer is being disingenuous to say the least. In fact, there is a long history of gender being used as a political weapon in Australian politics, including by the Liberal Party. The difference is that normally gender is used as a subtext rather than being explicitly talked about. After all, gender was being used as a political weapon when John Howard and Peter Costello depicted Kim Beazley as “flip-flop” Beazley who <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pm-gets-personal-beazleys-got-no-ticker/2005/10/13/1128796640367.html">lacked the “ticker’</a> to make the tough decisions to protect Australia and keep the economy strong. </p>
<p>In other words, they suggested that Beazley wasn’t man enough. Gender was being used as a political weapon when Tony Abbott suggested that Kevin Rudd was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/rudd-all-talk-and-no-ticker-abbott-20100130-n5h1.html">"all talk and no action”</a> – in other words that Rudd was an ineffectual nerd who wouldn’t deliver the policy changes necessary, unlike that real man, Tony Abbott. Gender was also being used as a political weapon in the 2004 election when the Liberals suggested that Mark Latham was a dangerous, aggressive, potentially violent rogue male and that it wasn’t safe to put the country in his hands. </p>
<p>In other words in 2004 the Liberals used a gender strategy against Latham that has some similarities to the strategy currently being used by against Tony Abbott by Labor.</p>
<p>Of course, such strategies aren’t confined to one side of politics. Latham himself was a master of using both gendered and heterosexist subtexts that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/howard-says-he-expected-crunch-time/2008/11/14/1226318927501.html">belittled the masculinity of his opponents</a>, including by casting aspersions on whether they were red-blooded heterosexual males. So Howard became an <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/06/26/1023864602092.html">“arse-licker”</a> towards the US; Peter Costello was likened to Gary Glitter and Latham suggested that “maybe Doug Cameron was right. The fellow that Abbott beat in the boxing final at Oxford went on to be the director of the Royal Ballet in London.” </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Julia Gillard herself notoriously once described Christopher Pyne as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-02-23/gillard-labels-pyne-mincing-poodle/305818">“mincing” and a “poodle”</a> compared with Abbott’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-drops-abbott-in-pile-of-poodle-doo-20110602-1fizk.html">“macho” “doberman”</a>, thereby managing to cast aspersions on both men’s forms of masculinity.</p>
<p>However, above all, Kelly O’Dwyer was being disingenuous because, as I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/happy-anniversary-julia-gillard-but-youve-still-got-a-lot-of-work-to-do-1951">explained previously in The Conversation</a>, the Liberals have consistently used gendered subtexts against Julia Gillard. </p>
<p>There have been repeated Liberal party suggestions that Julia Gillard is a vicious and devious <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-gillard-doth-protest-too-much-20120208-1rf1r.html">“Lady Macbeth”</a> type figure who knifed Kevin Rudd. While there are legitimate questions that can be asked about both the justification for, and timing of, Rudd’s removal, it is interesting that women who successfully challenge existing leaders seem to be constructed differently from male politicians who do so. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16261/original/vq4fb9bd-1349652408.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Julia Gillard at a community Cabinet meeting in Tasmania last week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Scott Gelston</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For example, Paul Keating did not receive the same level of personal opprobrium for successfully challenging Bob Hawke and neither did Tony Abbott for successfully challenging Malcolm Turnbull. Yet both gained their positions by removing previous male leaders, as so many of their male predecessors have done before.</p>
<p>Furthermore, Tony Abbott constantly uses gender subtexts against Julia Gillard. For example, he has repeatedly implied that, as an unmarried woman who has not given birth, Julia Gillard can’t empathise with ordinary Australian families. That is why <a href="http://www.australianreview.net/digest/2012/04/gleeson_johnson.html">Abbott started the 2010 leaders debate</a> by declaring: “my wife, Margie, and I know what it’s like to raise a family, to wrestle with a big mortgage, with grocery bills and school fees”. </p>
<p>It is also <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-machiavellian-genius-of-abbotts-honest-politician-jibe-1283">why he alluded to</a> Julia Gillard’s unmarried state by claiming that: “Only an election could make an honest politician of this Prime Minister”. It is also why, during the 2010 election campaign, Abbott was continually depicted with his wife and daughters. Indeed , Margie Abbott’s own impassioned speech defending her husband from sexism chances was entitled <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/margie-abbott-speech">“The Joy of an Ordinary Life”</a> and itself had a subtext that repeatedly counterposed her “ordinary” married family life to that of Julia Gillard’s.</p>
<p>In addition, as Labor MP Andrew Leigh pointed out when responding to Kelly O’Dwyer’s comments, Tony Abbott has a habit of repeatedly referring to Julia Gillard as “SHE” in parliament. This usage seems to be spreading into popular discourse as “SHE” is commonly blamed in everyday conversation and talkback radio for everything ranging from higher electricity prices to higher penalty rates in the hospitality industry.</p>
<p>So, contrary to Kelly O’Dwyer’s statement, gender has long been used as a political weapon in Australian politics. What is perhaps different is that, particularly since the Prime Minister referred to “sexist” and “misogynist” online attacks on her, the use of gender as a political weapon is now being more explicitly articulated, rather than gender issues being evoked via subtexts. Interestingly, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2012/s3605398.htm">Attorney-General Nicola Roxon suggested</a> on the ABC’s Insiders that Kelly O’Dwyer’s reference to a “handbag hit squad” was an attempt to suggest it was illegitimate for senior female ministers to openly discuss sexism in politics, including the sexist behaviour that Roxon claimed she had personally experienced from Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>It certainly seems hypocritical for the Liberals to be complaining about Labor’s use of the gender card against Tony Abbott, when they have so skilfully played the gender card against Julia Gillard.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carol Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a discussion with ABC journalist Emma Alberici on Lateline last week, Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer defended Tony Abbott from attacks by Labor ministers who criticised his attitudes towards women. In the…Carol Johnson, Professor of Politics, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.