tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/martin-mcguinness-1671/articlesMartin McGuinness – The Conversation2023-04-06T09:51:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029862023-04-06T09:51:58Z2023-04-06T09:51:58ZGood Friday Agreement: the early 1990s back-channel between the IRA and British government that made peace possible<p>In February 1990, in the midst of the Troubles, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness publicly invited the British government to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343311417982">reopen a back-channel</a> used during previous phases of contact with the IRA in the 1970s and during the 1981 hunger strike.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If [the British government] think there is something to be lost by stating publicly how flexible they would be, or how imaginative, we are saying they should tell us privately … there is an avenue which they are aware of whereby they can make what imaginative steps they are thinking about known to the Republican movement.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It was a crucial early step on the road to the Good Friday Agreement.</p>
<p>The British government, acting in conditions of the greatest secrecy, took McGuinness up on his offer the following year. An MI5 officer who went by the name Robert McLaren liaised with intermediary <a href="https://www.derryjournal.com/news/people/brendan-duddy-a-life-in-the-shadows-3254147">Brendan Duddy</a>, a Derry businessman who had played this role on several occasions since 1972. The aim was an <a href="https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/events/peace/pp9398.htm">IRA ceasefire</a> followed by political negotiations. On the British side only prime minister John Major and a handful of senior officials knew of the initiative. Duddy told me in 2009: “the very moment Robert appeared, the very second he appeared, I knew: the British government don’t send Robert to me unless they want to do business.”</p>
<p>The prospect of a negotiated end to the IRA campaign had first been explored more than a quarter century earlier. In June 1972, William Whitelaw, the British secretary of state for Northern Ireland, told his cabinet colleagues that, after three years of conflict and almost 400 deaths, “it was inescapable that some understanding would have to be reached with the ‘Provisional’ IRA; no solution seemed possible unless their point of view were represented.”</p>
<p>But although Whitelaw met secretly with IRA leaders in London in 1972 and Labour PM Harold Wilson sanctioned secret talks again in 1975, for most of the 30 years of conflict, orthodox thinking held that the IRA and the political party associated with them, Sinn Féin, would never compromise and that any settlement would have to exclude them.</p>
<p>Perhaps the biggest stumbling block was the Republicans’ central ideological demand – that the British government “acknowledge the right of the Irish people to determine their own future without let or hindrance.”</p>
<p>But as early as 1972 British officials considered whether it might be possible to accommodate them. After Whitelaw’s meeting with the IRA a senior civil servant noted that “the formula of the IRA was very close to the position of Mr Lynch [the Irish prime minister], that the future of Ireland should be decided by the people of Ireland as a whole.”</p>
<p>The question, though, was how this could be squared with the principle that Ireland could only be reunited if a majority in Northern Ireland agreed. In the 1990s a way would finally be found to do it.</p>
<h2>Secret talks</h2>
<p>The secret contacts that started in 1991 culminated in an IRA ceasefire offer made through the back-channel in early 1993. But the British government didn’t respond by agreeing to talks, as the Republicans had expected they would. After a period of recrimination the back-channel fell into disuse and was then dramatically revealed by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1993/nov/28/northernireland">Observer newspaper in November 1993</a>. Ironically, this exposure helped to accelerate movement towards a compromise peace settlement.</p>
<p>Speaking in 2020, not long before his death, John Chilcot, permanent under-secretary in the Northern Ireland Office in the 1990s and perhaps the single most important driver of the peace process on the British side, told me of the sense of deep uncertainty created by the revelation of the back-channel, and the subsequent sense of relief:</p>
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<p>The whole thing came to a head I think on the Monday after the Observer revelations … it wasn’t known whether the House of Commons would call for [secretary of state Patrick Mayhew’s] head on a platter and possibly John Major’s as well, instead of which the reverse happened. The whole of the House of Commons, or all of it that mattered, rose up to say ‘thank God. This is the right thing to be doing’ … my heart was in my mouth that Monday, same as Patrick Mayhew’s. I was in the House of Commons, in the official box and it was a wonderful moment actually.</p>
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<p>Chilcot felt a sense “of immense relief and coupled with, I think, something more positive, elation really, that it really looked as though the thing was going to take wing and who knows, succeed. It took a long time after that, but nonetheless, that was a turning point.”</p>
<p>Within weeks the British and Irish governments had issued the <a href="https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/alldfawebsitemedia/ourrolesandpolicies/northernireland/peace-process--joint-declaration-1993.pdf">Downing Street Declaration</a>. It included a British acknowledgement, for the first time, of a right to Irish self-determination, albeit one that was heavily qualified and subject to the agreement of a majority in Northern Ireland/</p>
<p>In August 1994, the IRA finally announced an end to its campaign. There were further twists and turns before the Good Friday Agreement, including a return to IRA violence in 1996 before they finally ended their campaign in July 1997.</p>
<p>Nine months later, on April 10 1998, the Belfast Agreement – or Good Friday Agreement as it became popularly known – was signed after intensive talks chaired by <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-friday-agreement-how-the-us-came-to-be-a-key-broker-in-northern-irelands-peace-deal-202584">US special envoy George Mitchell</a>. The settlement guaranteed a place in government to all parties that enjoyed significant electoral support, including Sinn Féin. It opened the way to conflict resolution measures aimed at bedding down the peace – including police reform, the removal of troops from the streets, and the early release of paramilitary prisoners. The text on self-determination from the Downing Street Declaration, with a few embellishments, was incorporated word for word into the Good Friday Agreement and endorsed by all of the parties to the Agreement.</p>
<h2>Going official</h2>
<p>The 1998 agreement was the achievement of the British and Irish governments, of all the political parties in Northern Ireland (with the exception of the DUP), and of external actors such as the then US president, Bill Clinton. But the ending of the IRA’s armed campaign was a prerequisite for the inclusive negotiations that produced the agreement. And ending the IRA campaign had required engagement between the British government and the IRA. As Chilcot told me in a 2010 interview: “Ultimately … the basic players in this game are the British government and the republican movement.”</p>
<p>The back-channel may have collapsed in public acrimony in late 1993, but it had helped to establish the foundations for the agreement that followed. The argument within the IRA for a ceasefire to facilitate talks had been won. The argument within the British state for a negotiated settlement that included Republicans had been significantly advanced. This was no trivial achievement at a time when powerful forces in the British state continued to oppose contact.</p>
<p>The back-channel made it possible for both sides to nurture trust and understanding. They learned about the constraints within which the other party was operating and gradually became willing to make the moves and concessions that would allow the other party to move in turn.</p>
<p>It was through the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/deniable-contact-9780192887535?lang=en&cc=gb">back-channel</a> that the British government and Sinn Féin began to build a new and less conflictual relationship. This was crucial to the ending of violent conflict.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Niall Ó Dochartaigh received funding from the Irish Research Council </span></em></p>Secret, behind-the-scenes talks were going on years before the official Belfast Agreement was signed – and made the whole thing possible.Niall Ó Dochartaigh, Professor of Political Science, University of Galway, University of GalwayLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/946132018-04-09T16:15:53Z2018-04-09T16:15:53ZGood Friday Agreement: ten key people who helped bring about peace in Northern Ireland 20 years ago<p><em>For the last few decades of the 20th century, the conflict in Northern Ireland looked intractable. Unionists and loyalists wanted Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom, while republicans and nationalists wanted it to become part of a united Ireland once again.</em></p>
<p><em>Yet on April 10, 1998, after rounds of multiparty negotiations, a deal was finally reached in Belfast – the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement">Good Friday Agreement</a>. It would establish a path for paramilitary groups from both sides to get rid of their weapons and for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/jul/28/northernireland">prisoners to be released</a>. It also paved the way for power sharing between unionists and republicans, and would establish a number of cross-border institutions between the north and south.</em> </p>
<p><em>For the April 2018 episode of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-friday-agreement-in-northern-ireland-at-20-the-anthill-podcast-94610">The Anthill podcast</a>, we asked four experts on Northern Ireland’s politics and its history to explain the role of some key players in getting the Good Friday Agreement across the line. Here are some extracts.</em> </p>
<h2>David Trimble</h2>
<p>Our first key player is David Trimble. Back in 1998, he was leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, at the time the main unionist political party in Northern Ireland. Trimble had risen to the head of the party in 1995, replacing its longstanding leader James Molyneaux, and was initially seen as somewhat of a hardliner. Connal Parr, vice chancellor’s research fellow in the humanities at Northumbria University, explains Trimble’s role in the Good Friday Agreement.</p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="180" data-image="" data-title="Connal Parr talking about David Trimble." data-size="2511843" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Connal Parr talking about David Trimble.
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<h2>John Hume</h2>
<p>John Hume was the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party – the main nationalist political party in Northern Ireland. Here’s John Morrison, director of the terrorism and extremism research centre at the University of East London, on Hume’s role leading up to April 1998.</p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="120" data-image="" data-title="John Morrison talking about David Hume." data-size="1528765" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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John Morrison talking about David Hume.
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<h2>Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness</h2>
<p>Gerry Adams, leader of the republican party Sinn Féin, and his deputy, Martin McGuinness, who would later become deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, played a key part in the agreement. John Morrison explains their journey from members of the Provisional IRA to leaders of Sinn Féin. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="203" data-image="" data-title="John Morrison talking about Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness." data-size="2593382" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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John Morrison talking about Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness.
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213619/original/file-20180406-5575-3qtbo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Martin McGuiness (left) and Gerry Adams, leaders of Sinn Féin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gerry_Penny/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>David Ervine</h2>
<p>A former member of the Ulster Volunteer Force and later leader of the Progressive Unionist Party, David Ervine was an articulate voice within the working-class Ulster loyalist community. He was to argue in favour of the Good Friday Agreement, as Connal Parr explains. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="330" data-image="" data-title="Connal Parr talking about David Ervine." data-size="4553544" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Connal Parr talking about David Ervine.
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<h2>Bill Clinton</h2>
<p>It was the Americans who helped pave the way for the nitty gritty of negotiations. Here’s Liam Kennedy, director of the Clinton Institute for American Studies at University College Dublin, to explain the role of US President Bill Clinton in the Northern Irish peace process. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="268" data-image="" data-title="Liam Kennedy talking about Bill Clinton." data-size="3587951" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Liam Kennedy talking about Bill Clinton.
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<h2>George Mitchell</h2>
<p>Soon after he was elected in 1993, Clinton appointed Democratic senator George Mitchell as US special envoy for Northern Ireland. He would put his name to the <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/the-mitchell-principles-1.50976">“Mitchell Principles”</a> that guided the negotiations, and played a key role in getting to an agreement. Liam Kennedy explains. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="117" data-image="" data-title="Liam Kennedy on George Mitchell." data-size="1564194" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Liam Kennedy on George Mitchell.
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<h2>Bertie Ahern</h2>
<p>Elected Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland in 1997, Bertie Ahern inherited the peace process from his predecessors. Margaret O’Callaghan, reader in history and politics at Queen’s University in Belfast, explains the work Ahern did to secure the peace deal. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="318" data-image="" data-title="Margaret O'Callaghan on Bertie Ahern." data-size="4921605" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Margaret O'Callaghan on Bertie Ahern.
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<h2>Tony Blair</h2>
<p>Like Aherne, when Tony Blair was elected in 1997 he was passed the reins of the peace process from his predecessor, John Major. But things began to change quite quickly, says Margaret O'Callaghan, as Blair got into deal-making mode. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="192" data-image="" data-title="Margaret O'Callaghan on Tony Blair." data-size="3074725" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Margaret O'Callaghan on Tony Blair.
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<h2>Mo Mowlam</h2>
<p>Doing a lot of the groundwork for Blair was his newly-appointed secretary of state for Northern Ireland, Mo Mowlam. Margaret O'Callaghan says that Mowlam’s subsequent portrayal since her death in 2005 as “marginal” to the Good Friday Agreement is unfair, and that she changed the weather, altered the atmosphere and got people to trust her. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="159" data-image="" data-title="Margaret O'Callaghan on Mo Mowlam." data-size="2473357" data-source="The Conversation" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
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Margaret O'Callaghan on Mo Mowlam.
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<p>There are of course a multitude of others who helped get the agreement over the line, including political parties such as the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281271830_The_Northern_Ireland_Women%27s_Coalition_and_the_Good_FridayBelfast_Agreement_-_Why_a_seat_at_the_table_is_not_enough">Northern Ireland Women’s Coalition</a>, an all-woman party that took part in the peace negotiations, religious figures, and, of course, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-friday-agreement-belongs-to-the-people-not-the-politicians-94535">the people of Northern Ireland</a>, who voted overwhelmingly for it. </p>
<p><em>Click here to listen to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-friday-agreement-in-northern-ireland-at-20-the-anthill-podcast-94610">full version of The Anthill podcast</a> on the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Morrison receives funding from the Minerva Research Initiative and PMI Impact. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Connal Parr, Liam Kennedy, and Margaret O'Callaghan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a series of short audio clips, four academics talk about the key figures involved in making the Good Friday Agreement of April 1998 possible.Liam Kennedy, Professor of American Studies, University College DublinConnal Parr, Vice-Chancellor's Research Fellow, Northumbria University, NewcastleJohn Morrison, Director of Terrorism and Extremism Research Centre, University of East LondonMargaret O'Callaghan, Reader, School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/743212017-04-07T09:14:51Z2017-04-07T09:14:51ZHow Northern Ireland is battling the persistent threat of violence<p>In March 2017 the people of Northern Ireland returned to the polls for the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results">second Assembly election</a> in ten months. The 65% <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results">voter turnout</a>, a rise of 10% on the previous year, was the largest in a referendum or election since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. And for the first time in their history, the Northern Irish electorate decided that Unionist parties would not hold an overall majority of seats in Stormont. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is once again the largest overall party. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2017/mar/03/northern-ireland-assembly-election-latest-results">But they now only have one more seat than Sinn Féin</a>.</p>
<p>Northern Ireland’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/jan/28/northernireland1">political history</a> may be <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2016.1155927">violent and bloody</a>, but it was not the gun which determined this particular result. A <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-38382626">political scandal</a> relating to renewable energy brought down the last Assembly and the DUP was never able to escape its spectre during the campaign. The election was triggered by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/09/martin-mcguinness-to-resign-as-northern-ireland-deputy-first-minister">resignation</a> of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/martin-mcguinness-the-ira-commander-who-walked-down-a-political-path-74820">late Martin McGuinness</a> as deputy first minister. His resignation was a protest at the handling of the Renewable Heat Incentive by the DUP and the failure of the first minister, Arlene Foster, to resign. </p>
<p>The former Provisional IRA leader’s resignation was presented for political reasons. Yet, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/19/sinn-feins-martin-mcguinness-quits-frontline-politics-recover/">because of ill health</a>, it was his last act on the political stage. His departure, before his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/martin-mcguinness-northern-ireland-former-deputy-first-minister-dies">death at the age of 66</a>, was the most recent step in Sinn Féin’s gradual move away from its violent past</p>
<p>His replacement, Michelle O’Neill, is the first Sinn Féin leader with no history of direct paramilitary involvement. Even though she has significant <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/michelle-oneill-northern-ireland-new-sinn-fein-leader-republican-change-stormont-mcguinness">familial connections</a> with the IRA, she is widely seen as an energetic and effective politician who has embraced the political chance provided by peace. In the weeks that have passed since the election, the significant challenges facing politicians in this devolved power-sharing assembly have become a stark reality. An agreement to form a government is yet to be reached.</p>
<p>But while Sinn Féin and the wider republican and nationalist electorate have taken a further step towards political “normality”, there are those still hanging onto the violence of the past. In the weeks leading up to the election there were <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dissident-bomb-attack-on-derry-police-officer-leaves-family-traumatised-35474525.html">near constant reminders</a> of those who still wish for Northern Ireland’s return to the dark days of the Troubles.</p>
<p>On January 13, a husband and wife from west Belfast, both in their 50s, were each <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/13/belfast-couple-shot-in-legs-while-protecting-son-paramilitaries">shot in the legs</a>. They were believed to be protecting their teenage son from the clutches of the paramilitaries.</p>
<p>On January 22, a Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) officer was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/22/belfast-police-officer-injured-in-terrorist-shooting">shot twice in the arm</a> at a petrol station in north Belfast. While he was only injured, it is believed that the intention was to kill.</p>
<p>On February 15 and 16 two teenagers were <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/utv/2017-02-17/psni-describe-shooting-of-teenage-boy-as-child-abuse/">shot in the legs</a> in separate punishment style attacks in west Belfast.</p>
<p>And on February 22 a pipe bomb, targeting a PSNI officer and his family was <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-bomb-culmore-device-at-police-officers-home-more-intricate-than-a-basic-pipe-bomb-35472857.html">placed under their car</a> in Derry. No one was killed or injured, but the bomb exploded once the army robot touched it.</p>
<p>Even after the election, on the day of Martin McGuinness’s death the New IRA <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39350435">attempted to kill</a> a police officer in Strabane. Again, no one was killed. But the intent was clear.</p>
<p>Each of these attacks was believed to have been perpetrated by <a href="http://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-origins-and-rise-of-dissident-irish-republicanism-9781623560096/">violent dissident republican (VDR) groups</a>. In all probability, either the New IRA or another dissident group known as Oglaigh na hEireann was responsible. This list represents only a fraction of the violence they have been linked with.</p>
<p>These small groups, with little support, reject the hard-fought peace of the Belfast and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/oct/17/northernireland.devolution1">St Andrews Agreements</a>. <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2016.1155941">They reject the legitimacy</a> of Sinn Féin to represent the republican population of Northern Ireland. In their eyes, by taking their seats and ministerial positions in the Stormont Assembly, and showing their support for the PSNI, Sinn Féin members are now “servants” of the British crown.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09546553.2016.1155940">Their violence is two-tiered</a>. Localised violent vigilantism, exemplified by punishment beatings and shootings, is designed to win and maintain control and support within republican communities. They depict themselves as protecting the people from drug dealers and petty criminals. Through their actions and statements they say that they are doing the job that the PSNI cannot, will not and should not do. They say that they are protecting the very communities that they portray Sinn Féin as having abandoned. </p>
<p>In parallel, their nationalised terrorist violence targets the political and security auspices of the state. Through their attacks on the police, prison officers and security services, they aim to highlight the continued “occupation” of Northern Ireland by the British “oppressor” and disrupt the normalisation of Northern Irish political life. In their eyes the PSNI is a repressive and unrepresentative British police force operating in Ireland – the frontline forces of their “enemy”. </p>
<h2>Persisting with peace</h2>
<p>The PSNI, in collaboration with colleagues in An Garda Siochana (the police force of the Republic of Ireland), have been responsible for the deterrence and <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/garda-psni-co-operation-has-saved-lives-minister-says-1.2809303">prevention of countless attacks</a>. Yet the threat remains. </p>
<p>The campaign of violence is nowhere near the level witnessed during the Troubles. And there is no indication that they have either the capability or intent to match it. However, just because the violence will not reach the levels of the past does not mean that it should be accepted or ignored.</p>
<p>These paramilitaries claim to be the true representatives of the republican people of Ireland, both north and south of the border. But this claim of legitimacy is frequently and loudly rejected by the very people they claim to represent. On March 2 2017 this was rejected in the most powerful way of all, at the ballot box.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Morrison has received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative.</span></em></p>Violent dissident republicanism is still making its presence felt.John Morrison, Director of Terrorism and Extremism Research Centre, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/754652017-03-30T11:16:28Z2017-03-30T11:16:28ZNorthern Ireland faces a bunch of bad options as it strives to keep devolution alive<p>Bill Clinton, when US president, <a href="https://partners.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/040699kosovo-clinton-text.html">referred to</a> having only “a bunch of bad options” while attempting to tackle the Milosevic regime during the war in Kosovo. The UK’s Northern Ireland Secretary, James Brokenshire, now faces a similar set of difficult choices as he contemplates what to do given the latest breakdown of devolved government.</p>
<p>Following the failure of the ruling parties to form a Northern Ireland Executive on March 27, Brokenshire declared, in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39410982">his statement to the House of Commons</a> the following day, that the government would “consider all options” if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein (SF) cannot settle their differences by Easter. But his implicit message was that all of these options were bad ones.</p>
<p>Under power-sharing rules, Northern Ireland had an assembly election on March 2 2017 after the resignation of former deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness. The result reinforced the dominance of the DUP and SF as the two largest parties in Northern Ireland but only served to magnify the differences between them that caused the election in the first place. </p>
<p>The DUP’s advantage over SF <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results">shrank from 10 seats</a> to a single seat. It came within a gnat’s whisker of being overtaken in first preference vote share by SF – clinging to a 0.2% lead with 28.1% to SF’s 27.9%. The politics of the result have meant that an embattled DUP is now fighting a rearguard action to save Arlene Foster’s leadership of the party in the face of an emboldened SF – which is fresh from a rip-snorting nationalist mandate to hold the DUP to account and in the midst of collective grief over the death of its beloved Northern figurehead, Martin McGuinness. None of this is conducive to political compromise. </p>
<p>The issue of transparency and integrity in government that triggered the March 2 election has been overlaid with a range of other issues relating to what are referred to as “legacy issues” of the conflict, as well as Sinn Fein’s demand for the DUP to agree to an Irish Language Act.</p>
<p>It is unlikely that the DUP and SF will have resolved their differences by Easter. The DUP cannot afford to look like it is dancing to SF’s tune, given its recent poor performance. SF meanwhile, will want to return to devolved government on terms significantly better than those that caused their now deceased former leader Martin McGuinness to resign in the first place.</p>
<p>In the absence of agreement, further talks between the DUP and SF alongside a creeping form of direct rule is a likely scenario. This will see the Northern Ireland civil service stepping in to run essential public services in the interim. The failure to restore devolved government means that Northern Ireland currently has no budget for the new financial year that begins on April 6. The civil service has had to step into the vacuum left by the NI executive. David Sterling, the permanent secretary in Northern Ireland’s Department of Finance, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-32994120">assumed responsibility</a> for 75% of Northern Ireland’s £10bn budget on March 29 and has now started taking decisions on how to allocate these resources.</p>
<p>The longer this goes on, the greater implications it will have for any future programme agreed between the DUP and SF – as the money may not be available to deliver what they want to do. Rate Bills (the equivalent of the Council Tax in GB) have not been set either, or sent out to local businesses or householders. This raises revenue of £1.2bn for local council services – money that will now have to come directly from the Department of Finance. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"846636693054783488"}"></div></p>
<p>If these emergency arrangements continue beyond the summer, there will be a legal requirement on the Department of Finance to impose a 5% budgetary cut across public services, many of which are already impoverished. </p>
<p>And so to Brexit, the shadow of which looms large across all of the above. Should direct rule be the medium-term future for Northern Ireland, it will take place against the backdrop of the UK’s negotiations over its departure from the European Union in a context where Britain will need Ireland as an ally. While leverage over Northern Ireland affairs would perhaps be too crude a way of putting it, some significant Irish influence over the shape of direct rule is a reasonable working assumption. </p>
<p>Without the buffer of its devolved government, NI politicians will cede local control over a swathe of economic, political and social policy matters. Thus, in the absence of devolution, the UK government could pass legislation to give effect to an Irish Language Act if it chose to do so, which the DUP have been adamantly resisting. It could also impose stringent welfare reforms that SF have been against for a number of years. However, given the Brexit context, where the UK will be desperate for European allies, direct rule may take on a decidedly green tinge over the next two years.</p>
<p>Bill Clinton spoke with great pathos at <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bill-clinton-delivers-moving-funny-10086503">Martin McGuinness’s funeral</a> on March 23 about how the former deputy First Minister “expanded the definition of us – and shrank the definition of them”. Whatever option James Brokenshire chooses over the coming weeks, it will need to deliver on this axiom if devolved government in Northern Ireland is to get much further.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75465/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Feargal Cochrane works at the University of Kent. He is incoming Vice Chair of the Political Studies Association and a Trustee of the Oxford Research Group. </span></em></p>Time is running out for a compromise agreement between the two main parties at Stormont.Feargal Cochrane, Professor of International Conflict Analysis, School of Politics and International Relations, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/752202017-03-28T03:24:48Z2017-03-28T03:24:48ZBrexit creates a human rights crisis for Ireland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162780/original/image-20170327-3276-pvxwfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Dylan Martinez</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK government will trigger Article 50 of the <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:12012E/TXT">Lisbon Treaty</a> on Wednesday. This will serve as a formal notification of the UK’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/what-is-article-50-the-only-explanation-you-need-to-read/">intent to withdraw</a> from the European Union. It will set off two years – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/15/reality-check-will-it-take-10-years-to-do-a-uk-eu-trade-deal-post-brexit">or more</a> – of negotiations on the conditions of “Brexit” and future trade relations. </p>
<p>This follows the June 2016 referendum, in which <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-3810887">51.9% of UK voters</a> chose “<a href="http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/">Leave</a>”. The delay between the vote and the official trigger was due in part to litigation which sought to prevent Brexit. </p>
<p>In “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2016-0196-judgment.pdf">Miller’s case</a>”, litigants disputed the claimed prerogative power of ministers to withdraw from the treaties binding the UK to the EU. The UK Supreme Court was persuaded that cabinet lacked the sole authority to trigger Brexit. </p>
<p>Instead, the court found, a vote in parliament was needed to authorise:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… a fundamental change in the constitutional arrangements of the United Kingdom. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The change will be fundamental because EU treaties are a source of domestic laws and individual legal rights for the UK and its citizens. </p>
<p>UK Prime Minister Theresa May received the necessary <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/brexit-vote-article-50-eu-citizens-rights-lords-mps">parliamentary confirmation</a> on March 14. </p>
<h2>Brexit and human rights in Ireland</h2>
<p>In the frenzy of focus on Brexit, insufficient attention has been given to its implications in Ireland, north or south. Yet Brexit creates nothing less than a human rights crisis for the island of Ireland. </p>
<p>In the Brexit case, the UK Supreme Court was also asked to consider if the Northern Ireland Assembly or people of Northern Ireland ought to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e78845c6-bc7a-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080">have a say on withdrawal</a> from the EU. After all, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-36614443">55.8%</a> of the people there voted to “<a href="http://www.strongerin.co.uk/">Remain</a>” in the EU.</p>
<p>The court found that the Good Friday (or Belfast) Agreement – the basis for the peace process in Ireland – created <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-uk-government-does-not-need-northern-irelands-permission-to-trigger-article-50-35393641.html">no rights for Northern Ireland</a> in relation to EU membership. </p>
<p>This ruling left no space for the collective human right of <a href="http://digitalcommons.law.seattleu.edu/sjsj/vol13/iss2/13/">self-determination of the Irish people</a>. This right is <a href="http://peacemaker.un.org/uk-ireland-good-friday98">expressed in the Good Friday Agreement</a> to permit continued union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland, subject to the will of a majority of the people. </p>
<p>Parallel to Brexit, the UK government also plans to <a href="https://soundcloud.com/oupacademic/conor-gearty-discusses-the-future-of-human-rights-in-the-uk">withdraw</a> from the European Convention on Human Rights. This would fundamentally <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-irealand-gerry-adams-sinn-fein-good-friday-agreement-peace-eu-a7539011.html">undermine</a> the <a href="http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/ilj/vol40/iss1/3/">human rights framework</a> of the Good Friday Agreement. </p>
<p>It would also remove the option for Northern Ireland residents to make rights claims before the <a href="http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere/brexit-the-good-friday-agreement-and-the-european-convention-on-human-rights">European Court of Human Rights</a>, and leave them subject to a <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-campaign-leave-european-convention-on-human-rights-2020-general-election-brexit-a7499951.html">severely weakened</a> domestic human rights structure.</p>
<h2>Brexit and borders</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the EU is demanding a resolution of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/26/observer-editorial-triggering-of-article-50-jeopardises-60-years-of-unparalleled-peace">Irish border issue</a> before it will begin exit negotiations. </p>
<p>The twin forces of EU-mandated free movement of people between member states, and the peace process, have done away with the <a href="https://qz.com/892369/with-brexit-looming-irelands-once-disputed-border-is-again-contentious/">“hard” border</a> between the Irish jurisdictions. </p>
<p>The freer flow of people and goods across the now-invisible border has been an essential factor in maintaining peace post-agreement.</p>
<p>However, May continues to chart a course towards a <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21714986-government-promises-truly-global-britain-after-brexit-plausible-theresa-may-opts">“hard” Brexit</a>. This approach emphasises Britain’s separation from the EU, particularly by tightening restrictions on immigration into the UK. The logical outcome is the restoration of some form of <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/02/irish-preparations-border-checks-bring-home-reality-brexit">border control</a> between the Irish jurisdictions.</p>
<h2>Brexit and peace</h2>
<p>These are not insignificant issues. Both former Irish taoiseach <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/11/irelnd-peace-risk-brexit-bertie-ahern">Bertie Ahern</a> and former British secretary of state for Northern Ireland <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/27/hard-brexit-push-risks-northern-ireland-peace-process-says-peter-hain-article-50-bill-amendment-open-border">Peter Hain</a> have warned that Brexit poses a risk to peace itself in Ireland. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Senator George Mitchell on how Brexit threatens power-sharing in Northern Ireland.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The perpetually tenuous state of the devolved government in Belfast has been especially clear in recent months. </p>
<p>In January, Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-38561507">resigned</a> from the Northern Ireland Assembly. He cited the failure of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to tackle a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-38301428">scandal</a> of massive over-spending of public funds on a poorly designed energy scheme. </p>
<p>McGuinness’ resignation triggered a snap election in Northern Ireland, held on March 2. For the first time, British unionists <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/northern-ireland-assembly-election-power-sharing-collapse-sinn-fein-gains-dup-losses-lgbt-welcome-a7611116.html">lost their overall majority</a> in the assembly. </p>
<p>Irish republican party Sinn Féin gained significant ground and claimed a mandate for its demand that Northern Ireland have <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/assembly-election-2017/ni-assembly-election-dup-finish-just-one-seat-ahead-of-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.2996479">special status</a> in the EU after Brexit. </p>
<p>Following the election, newly elected members of the assembly had three weeks to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2017-03-27/what-is-next-for-northern-ireland-after-power-sharing-talks-collapse/">form a power-sharing coalition</a>. They <a href="http://www.thejournal.ie/dup-sinn-fein-sunday-talks-what-happens-now-3308459-Mar2017/">did not reach consensus</a> in that time, leaving the British government with the options of offering more time for talks, reimposing direct rule from Westminster, or calling new elections. </p>
<p>Rights issues are important in the current stalemate. Sinn Féin have said that the DUP is intransigent in refusing to honour <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-withdraws-from-stormont-negotiations-1.3025247">long-standing rights claims</a>, including in relation to a <a href="http://www.nihrc.org/publication/category/Bill-of-Rights">Bill of Rights</a> for Northern Ireland, an <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0206/850536-ni-politics/">Irish Language Act</a>, and <a href="http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/03/27/sinn-fein-makes-equal-marriage-a-key-issue-in-northern-ireland-power-sharing-talks/">equal marriage</a>. </p>
<p>The British government has failed to attend to its obligations, arising from the Good Friday Agreement, to facilitate <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/01/truth-and-reconciliation-reality-northern-ireland-will-have-neither">truth and reconciliation</a> processes. This failure is evident in the persistent refusal to conduct proper inquiries into <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0221/854245-pat-finucane/">killings involving British state forces</a> during the conflict in Ireland. </p>
<h2>McGuinness’ legacy</h2>
<p>McGuinness <a href="http://www.thejournal.ie/martin-mcguinness-3-3299811-Mar2017/">died</a> on March 21. A former IRA commander, McGuinness eventually took a pivotal role in the long and tortured process of peace negotiations. He became a central figure in the shift of mainstream Irish republicanism from militant action to political activism. </p>
<p>Former US president Bill Clinton <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/618630/full_text_of_bill_clintons_eulogy_to_martin/">eulogised</a> McGuinness, calling on Irish and British leaders and people to “finish the work there is to be done” for lasting peace in Ireland:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The world in every period of insecurity faces a new wave of tribalism … Believe me; when the people who made this peace did it, every single one of them decided to take a flying leap into the unknown against their better judgement.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162607/original/image-20170327-3291-1tcmdi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Niall Carson</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>It is hard to escape a conclusion that Britain has lost sight of the work that peace in Ireland has taken and will take. Instead, in withdrawing from the EU, the UK is re-establishing its stake in the constitutional future of the island of Ireland.</p>
<p>This is contrary to both the conditions of the peace accord and the rights of the Irish people, north and south.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<h4 class="border">Disclosure</h4><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Maguire is a member of the National Committee of Australian Lawyers for Human Rights and a member of Amnesty International. </span></em></p>The UK government will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on Wednesday. This will serve as a formal notification of the UK’s intent to withdraw from the European Union. It will set off two years…Amy Maguire, Senior Lecturer in International Law and Human Rights, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/749472017-03-21T17:11:56Z2017-03-21T17:11:56ZMartin McGuinness and the power of political symbolism<p>From the Bogside in Derry to the Queen’s residence in Buckingham Palace, the journey made by Martin McGuinness has rightly been referred to as nothing short of remarkable.</p>
<p>For some, McGuinness epitomised Irish republican connections to a violent past. For others he represented the journey that many took across the north. But what was particularly remarkable about the former deputy first minister was his ability to understand the importance of symbolic acts in Northern Ireland. He was often to be found engaging in gestures that may have seemed trivial to the untrained eye, but were in fact integral to the peace process.</p>
<p>As Northern Ireland looks beyond its latest crisis, McGuinness’s skill in this aspect of peace building will be sorely missed. </p>
<p>Northern Ireland sits at a critical juncture. Government institutions have collapsed following a breakdown in relations between the DUP and Sinn Féin. An election failed to produce a working government. All this comes on the back of a litany of scandals that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/19/northern-ireland-first-minister-arlene-foster-urged-resign-fuel-subsidy-scheme">has eroded</a> cross-party confidence.</p>
<p>Uncertainty about Brexit across the United Kingdom will also be felt acutely on the island of Ireland, both north and south. The prospect of a hard Brexit and the potential return of a fixed border has consequences, both real and symbolic. No one wishes to be dragged back to the dark days of cross-border checkpoints controlled by the British Army. </p>
<p>Cool heads are needed. McGuinness was capable of understanding the intricacies of engaging in symbolic acts of reconciliation. Others in his party have found this a little <a href="http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/sinn-fein-mep-causes-offence-with-rant-to-empty-chamber-1-7866065">more challenging</a>. Laced with evocative language glorifying armed struggle, Sinn Féin MEP Martina Anderson’s recent outburst in the European Parliament about the dangers of a border between the north and south is in sharp contrast to the conciliatory tone favoured by McGuinness in recent times. </p>
<h2>Symbolism and conflict</h2>
<p>In Northern Ireland, tribal symbols and traditional ethno-national markers such as parades have long been used as ways of demarcating territory and reinforcing an “us and them” politic. Fragile peace agreements have been shaken by perceived attacks on group identity. From <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/northern_ireland/understanding/events/siege_of_drumcree.stm">Drumcree</a>, where annual marches were surrounded by tensions, to the more recent flag protests at Belfast’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20972438">city hall</a>, disputes over flags, parades and other symbols have become the new battleground in the “post-conflict” era.</p>
<p>The most famous gesture by McGuinness was perhaps the handshake between himself and the Queen that took place in Belfast in 2012. This was a moment that was welcomed within some circles for its purchase – although it was challenged by <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2165058/Has-asked-Queen-wants-shake-hands-Martin-McGuinness.html">others</a>.</p>
<p>But there was also his decision to watch <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/martin-mcguinness-to-attend-first-northern-ireland-match-during-euro-2016-34790959.html">Northern Ireland play Germany</a> in the 2016 European Championships. His gesture was not reciprocated by First Minister Arlene Foster when the Republic of Ireland took on Italy. </p>
<p>McGuinness’s skill lay in his capacity to appreciate the resonance of such a move. It was his undoubted commitment to the peace process that allowed for a willingness to transcend tribal differences. </p>
<h2>Unionism found wanting</h2>
<p>Where McGuinness showed vision, others have floundered. unionist leaders have often failed to engage in the kind of gestures that could ultimately generate a sense of reconciliation with their nationalist counterparts.</p>
<p>Patronising <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-29895593">attacks on the Irish language</a> within the Northern Ireland Assembly and opposition to an act that would protect the use of the Irish language in public institutions reveals the lack of sensitivity towards symbolically resonant aspects of power sharing within some unionist circles. These are powerful tools for encouraging meaningful cross-community reconciliation. This speaks to an immaturity and insincerity that once led McGuinness <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38085962">to comment</a> that some unionist leaders have a “psychological problem” with reconciliation, assuming it is some kind of “trick” being played on them by Sinn Féin. </p>
<p>Opportunities to attend historic 1916 commemorations – events that had as one of their core principles, “reconciliation on the island of Ireland” were snubbed by <a href="http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/unionists-standing-firm-in-refusal-to-attend-1916-celebration-events-1-7287234">unionists</a>. Meanwhile, McGuinness was <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-feins-mcguinness-calls-on-republicans-to-respect-events-in-unionist-culture-34564793.html">calling on republicans</a> to respect the commemorative events that were being observed by unionists – particularly those commemorating the Somme. </p>
<p>His violent past polarised opinion about McGuinness but his willingness to make magnanimous gestures ought to be remembered. And the importance of such gestures should not be underestimated. It was his understanding of their power that truly demonstrated the extent to which McGuinness was committed to peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Ciarán Browne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From handshakes to football matches, the late deputy first minister understood that little gestures go a long way.Brendan Ciarán Browne, Assistant Professor & Course Coordinator MPhil Conflict Resolution, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/748202017-03-21T10:45:29Z2017-03-21T10:45:29ZMartin McGuinness: the IRA commander who walked down a political path<p>During the Troubles in Northern Ireland, some Ulster unionists blamed the Catholic education system for promoting an Irish nationalist identity among the minority population. This, they argued, helped fuel a republican insurgency from the early 1970s. As a leading figure in the insurgency, Martin McGuinness was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2000/feb/06/life1.lifemagazine3">unequivocal</a> when asked about his own experience of being taught in the Catholic system: “They didn’t make me a republican; the Brits made me a republican.”</p>
<p>It was not Irish history that politicised McGuinness and led him to join the Irish Republican Army (IRA). Rather events in Northern Ireland from the late 1960s drove him – specifically the state’s violent response to a civil rights movement calling for an end to Catholic discrimination, and in particular seeing the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/8/newsid_2496000/2496479.stm">killing of a neighbour by the British army</a> in July 1971.</p>
<p>Henceforth, McGuinness became a committed IRA member. He gained a particular reputation as a deadly sniper. Young Catholic women in his home town of Derry would even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2000/feb/06/life1.lifemagazine3">goad the British soldiers</a> who supervised their every movement on the streets: “McGuinness will be out tonight. McGuinness will be out tonight …” McGuinness was also feared within republicanism as a strict disciplinarian, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/martin-mcguinness-the-man-who-helped-steer-ira-away-from-terrorism">foreswearing alcohol and other vices</a>, and appearing cold and unemotional towards the movement’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2000/feb/06/life1.lifemagazine3">brutal response to “touts”</a> – those suspected of collaborating with the security forces.</p>
<p>However, McGuinness’ abilities early marked him out as more than just a military man. Aged just 22, he was airlifted to London as part of an IRA delegation to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2000/feb/06/life1.lifemagazine3">engage in talks with the British government</a>. Though these talks failed, when the British reopened a channel of communication with republicans in the late 1980s, McGuinness was now lead negotiator for Sinn Féin, the political wing of the IRA.</p>
<p>It was a role he maintained through the crucial talks leading to the IRA ceasefire of 1994, and then <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement">the Good Friday Agreement of 1998</a>. Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair’s chief of staff, vividly recalls the time during these negotiations when the <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/people/37395/day-mcguinness-came-no-10">Sinn Féin leader first visited Downing Street</a>. Entering the Cabinet Room, McGuinness paused to comment: “So this is where all the damage was done.” Powell was taken aback by such a frank apparent reference to the IRA’s audacious near assassination of John Major via a mortar attack on Number 10 in 1991. “Yes”, Powell responded: “The windows came in but no one was injured.” “No”, replied McGuinness, “I meant this is where Michael Collins signed the treaty in 1921.”</p>
<p>Powell’s anecdote illustrates the very different positions from which the British government and Sinn Féin approached the Northern Ireland problem. For the former the focus was republican violence, and how to end it. For the latter the focus was on the historical injustices that motivated republican violence, and how to redress them. McGuinness had of course been referring to the treaty which partitioned Ireland and so created Northern Ireland.</p>
<h2>A key partnership</h2>
<p>When Sinn Féin and Ian Paisley’s DUP became the largest parties in their respective communities in the aftermath of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, the terms of that deal meant that they had to agree on how to share power in Northern Ireland. Thus, a former IRA commander and a former firebrand preacher now jointly led the Northern Ireland government. The media had a field day, dubbing the pairing the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/jennymccartney/3643620/Paisley-and-McGuinness-chuckling-in-power.html">Chuckle Brothers</a>, as a distinct camaraderie was displayed by Paisley and McGuinness.</p>
<p>Arguably, this showed the leadership skills of the two men. A deal between two sulking adversaries would have been harder to sell to their respective constituencies, and it was far better to have the media mock them than to pull at the loose threads of the political accord they had made. Meanwhile, the personal accord between Paisley and McGuinness seemed to grow into something genuine. Their past actions had, understandably, seen them portrayed as wholly serious individuals, but this masked the streak of humour which McGuinness and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2000/feb/06/life1.lifemagazine3">the man he called “Big Ian”</a> clearly shared. Their bond was most evident when Paisley retired. To mark the occasion, McGuinness presented him with a self-penned poem inspired by the author’s passion for <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/people/38327/mcguinness%25E2%2580%2599s-farewell-ode-rev-paisley">fly-fishing</a>. To describe McGuinness as a multi-layered man would seem a gross understatement.</p>
<h2>Taking a risk</h2>
<p>McGuinness’ <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-18607911">handshake with the Queen</a> in 2012 was seen as another crucial milestone in the peace process – the Queen’s cousin, Lord Mountbatten, was killed by the IRA in 1979. Again, leadership was evident on both sides.</p>
<p>But perhaps more powerful than McGuinness’ meeting with the Queen was the moment in 2009 when he branded republican dissidents as “traitors to Ireland” after they <a href="http://www.irishnews.com/news/2017/01/21/news/widow-of-murdered-officer-stephen-carroll-hails-mcguinness-for-denouncing-traitors--895619/">killed a police officer</a>. Shaking hands with the Queen was a potent symbol of peace-making; McGuinness’s condemnation of dissident violence had much greater practical effect. His unambiguous, impassioned statement helped protect the lives of all police officers, but particularly Catholics, whom dissidents cynically targeted as a way of undermining the transformation of policing achieved as part of the Good Friday Agreement. If dissidents could discourage young Catholics from joining the reformed service, they could hope for a return to the status quo ante – a partisan, Protestant police force, from which many Catholics had turned to the IRA for protection.</p>
<p>McGuinness spoke for the overwhelming majority of nationalists by making clear that the police were now a service for all the people of Northern Ireland. Dissident attacks on the police were thus an attack on the people they served. Everyone must therefore stand in defence of the police. It was arguably his greatest contribution to the peace process. He faced numerous <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/apr/24/martin-mcguinness-death-threats">death threats</a> afterwards, so it may also have been his bravest.</p>
<h2>The settlement</h2>
<p>It is because of such developments that the British media recently tried to draw a line between McGuinness and the other leading republican of the modern era, Gerry Adams. Republicans, of course, are well-used to British tactics of divide and rule, and for Adams and McGuinness, the secret of their political success was actually their unity of purpose. That, in turn, maximised the unity of the republican movement through its various compromises over recent decades. Together they achieved what no single leader in the long history of Irish republicanism ever did – embracing politics without a major split in the movement. Dissident factions splintering away are manageable, but history shows that a more significant divide will mean a continuation of conflict.</p>
<p>The media might also recall that it previously depicted McGuinness as the real hardliner. He was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38690431">“the soldier”</a> keeping faith with the republican rank and file, and keeping a lid on the ambitions of Adams, “the politician”. Certainly, the two men brought different qualities to the table at different times, but together they combined to provide an exceptional mode of leadership which jointly steered an essentially unified republican movement away from armed struggle towards peaceful politics.</p>
<p>Others, however, choose to focus only on the earlier part of McGuinness’s career. Like his other political partner, Ian Paisley, who many nationalists feel instigated the Troubles by orchestrating opposition to the civil rights movement, McGuinness will never be forgiven by some people.</p>
<p>For victims of violence on either side of the conflict, the focus on the past is wholly understandable. There were, after all, voices on both sides of the divide who, from the very outset, consistently argued for a more peaceful way towards change in Northern Ireland. However, ultimately, figures such as Paisley and McGuinness both helped lead more intransigent minds down that political path.</p>
<p>As long as future generations are prepared to continue with the same endeavour, the most enduring legacy of the former firebrand preacher and the former IRA commander will be a peaceful, just, and democratic settlement in Ireland.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John McLoughlin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former deputy first minister was once a feared IRA sniper but became a central figure in the move towards peace.Peter John McLoughlin, Lecturer in Politics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/714182017-01-17T13:46:45Z2017-01-17T13:46:45ZHow Northern Ireland’s government went from mutual suspicion to collapse<blockquote>
<p>As doctors say of a wasting disease, to start with it is easy to cure but difficult to diagnose; after a time, unless it has been diagnosed and treated at the outset, it becomes easy to diagnose but difficult to cure. So it is in politics.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This quote in some ways explains the collapse of the Northern Ireland government. But it comes not from the lips of the former deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, whose <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38561507">resignation</a> has effectively <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38644157">forced a forthcoming election</a> in March, but from Niccoló Machiavelli’s advice in The Prince, written in 1513. It gets to the heart of why the Northern Ireland Executive has collapsed barely eight months after the last election, which pitched Sinn Féin and the DUP into a two-party coalition government for the first time ever.</p>
<p>The relationship between the DUP and Sinn Féin had been souring for several years before this debacle, but it wasn’t always so. The former DUP leader and first minister, Ian Paisley, formed the unlikeliest of relationships with McGuinness when the two governed together. They got on so well that they were affectionately known as the <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/filming-to-begin-on-ian-paisley-and-martin-mcguinness-chuckle-brothers-comedy-drama-the-journey-31567404.html">Chuckle Brothers</a>. While working together, the two agreed to disagree about Northern Ireland’s final destination as part of the UK or a reunited Irish state.</p>
<h2>Declining relations</h2>
<p>A more humourless dynamic arrived when Peter Robinson succeeded Paisley in 2008. The relationship between the two parties began to unwind. This was partly because the DUP benefited electorally from a frosty public relationship with Sinn Féin. An assertive brand of unionism helped prevent votes from leaking to the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the DUP’s main unionist rival party.</p>
<p>Political space narrowed further when identity politics began to reassert itself over the disputed flags in December 2012. Unionists complained about Belfast City Council’s decision to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20651163">only fly the Union flag on designated days</a> (in line with the rest of Great Britain) rather than every day, as had been done before.</p>
<p>Agreements between the DUP and Sinn Féin began to disintegrate. The planned regeneration of the former Maze prison was, for example, abandoned: under pressure from unionist hardliners, the DUP decided the project risked turning the site into a “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-22279360">shrine to terrorism</a>”.</p>
<p>From 2007 until the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/northern_ireland/results">last assembly election</a> in May 2016, the relationship between the DUP and Sinn Féin has been mediated by the fact that they were the two dominant partners in a five-party coalition. Smaller partners the UUP and SDLP declined to take their seats in government and instead went into formal opposition. This left the DUP and Sinn Féin joined cantankerously at the hip in government.</p>
<h2>Referendum rancour</h2>
<p>Then came <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/eu-referendum-2016">Brexit</a>. The result of the June referendum provided a structural basis for the DUP and Sinn Féin to rationalise their adversarial behaviour. A programme for government, hammered out at great pains just a month previously, was significantly derailed by the fact that the DUP and Sinn Féin adopted opposing positions on Brexit.</p>
<p>The subsequent months have calcified their positions – and this looks likely to become more entrenched after Article 50 is triggered in March 2017. Disagreement over leaving the EU, and a post-Brexit deal, have re-energised an aspect of the NI conflict that many had hoped had been anaesthetised by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/events/good_friday_agreement">Good Friday Agreement</a> in 1998.</p>
<p>Since then, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland has become more of a porous membrane. Now the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/09/britain-to-push-post-brexit-uk-immigration-controls-back-to-irish-border">land border</a> may need to be more formally demarcated and policed, since one side will remain in the EU and the other will be leaving. </p>
<p>Leaving aside the economic impacts, a hard Brexit threatens to emphasise the Britishness and Irishness of the two jurisdictions, shining a harsh unforgiving light on the “constitutional question”.</p>
<h2>A rough campaign</h2>
<p>Following the collapse of the government, an election has been scheduled for March 2. And the campaign looks set to be nasty. Rather than defending their records in government, the DUP and Sinn Féin will call each other out.</p>
<p>Sinn Féin will focus on First Minister Arlene Foster’s personal responsibility for the <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/q-a-what-is-the-northern-ireland-cash-for-ash-scheme-1.2907866">Renewable Heating Initiative</a> scandal that cost taxpayers £490m. The party will also suggest that wider policy decisions, not least the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38422550">withdrawal of public money</a> for the Irish language classes in the run up to Christmas, demonstrated the anti-nationalist mentality of the DUP. More broadly, the DUP will be accused of arrogance and contempt for the supposed partnership with Sinn Féin.</p>
<p>For its part, the DUP will criticise Sinn Féin for prompting the collapse of the government in the first place by deciding not to replace McGuinness after his resignation. It will say Sinn Féin is putting everyone through a needless election as a result, disguising narrow party interests as political principle.</p>
<p>An election suits Sinn Féin more than the DUP. Foster’s personal credibility has been badly damaged by the funding scandal and the DUP may suffer some electoral losses to the UUP. Sinn Féin also looks set to take votes from the SDLP as a result of changes to the electoral system. In the assembly election on March 2, the number of seats will be reduced from 108 to 90, meaning that smaller parties such as the SDLP are likely to be squeezed further in a system that benefits the larger parties. </p>
<p>But whatever happens in the election, it is almost certain that the DUP and Sinn Féin will remain the two largest parties. After they finish negotiating following the election (which may take weeks, months or years) they will have to face each other once again in government. And all of the issues that have torn them apart will have become more difficult to resolve in the meantime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Feargal Cochrane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What was already an uneasy alliance first turned sour, and then utterly disintegrated. Where did it all go wrong?Feargal Cochrane, Professor of International Conflict Analysis, School of Politics and International Relations, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/710592017-01-09T22:34:05Z2017-01-09T22:34:05ZMartin McGuinness resignation could return Northern Ireland to direct rule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152177/original/image-20170109-21661-1h4pgda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kelvin Boyes / Press Eye</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Northern Ireland power-sharing political settlement is such that its leaders are like conjoined twins; if one of them decides to leap off the cliff the other one plummets also. So when Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness, deputy first minister, resigned his position, it brought to an abrupt halt Arlene Foster’s tenure as first minister – and could potentially end ten years of power sharing at Stormont.</p>
<p>The relationship between Foster’s Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein has become poisonous of late, and the dramatic announcement by McGuinness is the manifestation of a complete breakdown of trust between the two coalition parties.</p>
<p>The issue that precipitated the collapse is the so-called “<a href="http://www.thejournal.ie/what-is-cash-for-ash-scandal-3177793-Jan2017/?utm_source=shortlink">Cash for Ash</a>” scandal whereby a scheme to incentivise the use of green energy was mismanaged, with major financial implications for the public purse (to the tune of £490m). As the minister who oversaw the scheme’s initial design and implementation, Foster stands accused of gross incompetence by all other parties.</p>
<p>This includes Sinn Fein, which <a href="http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/12/19/news/daithi-mckay-arlene-s-fate-now-in-republican-hands-843154/">issued Foster with an ultimatum</a>: step aside as first minister while a full investigation into the scheme takes place. Foster’s steadfast refusal to do so has seen the crisis escalate, with McGuinness popping the power-sharing balloon and almost certainly setting Northern Ireland on course for an election.</p>
<h2>Back to the polls</h2>
<p>Attention now turns to the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/utv/update/2017-01-09/secretary-of-state-will-work-with-parties-to-find-way-forward/">James Brokenshire</a>, who – according to the rulebook – is obliged to call an election unless Sinn Fein changes its mind and nominates a replacement for Martin McGuinness in the coming week. Such a u-turn seems unlikely. Indeed Sinn Fein’s electoral battle cry is already being practiced: the DUP is “arrogant” and “out of touch” with ordinary taxpayers horrified at a colossal squandering of their money.</p>
<p>It is ironic, and loudly emphasised by the opposition parties, that an election would put the heating scandal on the back burner, as any formal investigation would be delayed until after an election. How this sits with a Northern Ireland public which went to the polls <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/northern_ireland/results">only seven months ago</a> remains to be seen.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"818488869133815811"}"></div></p>
<p>At face value, “Cash for Ash” is an issue that would be likely to dominate an election campaign in any country – politicians accused of incompetence and corruption. However, it is always unwise to take things at face value in Northern Ireland. This scandal is merely the over-heated tip of a “green and orange” iceberg into which the ship of state has crashed. Sinn Fein’s anger at the DUP’s steadfast refusal to concede ground on core republican aims, such as an <a href="http://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/unionist-politician-says-he-would-treat-irish-language-act-like-toilet-paper">Irish Language Act</a>, has rendered the power-sharing coalition so fragile. An election is likely to be characterised, yet again, by a focus on ethno-national issues.</p>
<h2>At loggerheads</h2>
<p>In terms of electoral outcomes, things are not likely to change terribly much from the 2016 Assembly tally. The DUP and Sinn Fein are odds-on favourites to emerge as the two largest parties, albeit to an <a href="http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2016/exec_review/1616.pdf">Assembly reduced from 108 to 90 members</a> after the implementation of the Assembly Members (Reduction
of Numbers) Bill 2016. Sinn Fein has however already stated its unwillingness to return to the status quo.</p>
<p>An election may simply usher in a lengthy period of inter-party talks, in which Sinn Fein attempts to secure concessions from the DUP and the approach to power-sharing government (perhaps even the central issue of ministerial responsibility) is tweaked once more.</p>
<p>Any concessions will, however, be hard won – if won at all. The DUP will be <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/arlene-foster-says-she-wont-blink-first-in-sinn-fein-game-of-chicken-over-rhi-investigation-35352326.html">loath to appear to dance to Sinn Fein’s tune</a> or offer up Foster’s scalp as a sacrificial peace offering. Given such likely intransigence the electorate in Northern Ireland could be prescribed a lengthy dose of something they know too well: <a href="https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/uk/martin-mcguinnesss-resignation-means-uncertainty-northern-ireland-brexit-looms/">direct rule</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Garry receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and is the Principal Investigator on the Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016 project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Before taking up his post at Britsol University, Neil Matthews was formerly research fellow on the Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016.</span></em></p>A political scandal has laid bare the irreconcilable differences between to two main parties in the power-sharing agreement.John Garry, Institute for the Study of Conflict Transformation and Social Justice, Queen's University BelfastNeil Matthews, Lecturer in politics, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/615902016-06-24T11:02:41Z2016-06-24T11:02:41ZNorthern Ireland prepares to enter a post-Brexit quagmire<p>Unlike the UK as a whole, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU – and now it finds itself in a deep political and economic tangle.</p>
<p>The Northern Irish Remain vote had been anticipated, and as expected, support was strongest in border areas and in Belfast. But the margin of victory for the Remain camp was rather tighter than opinion polls had suggested, with Remain on 55.8% to Leave’s 44.2%.</p>
<p>The political fallout has already started. As soon as results indicated that a Leave vote was likely Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html">called</a> for an all-Ireland vote on unification, a so-called “border poll”. </p>
<p>This will be furiously resisted by unionists, but the call has nonetheless been made. It can only dial up the tensions in Northern Ireland’s power-sharing Executive, in which the Democratic Unionist Party, Northern Ireland’s largest party, shares power with Sinn Féin.</p>
<p>The result challenges the executive and Northern Ireland in general on several other fronts. Northern Ireland will need to decide what interests it wants to see defended in the withdrawal negotiations and safeguarded under whatever new relationship replaces the UK’s membership. That debate simply has not been had, and the Leave campaign was essentially silent on the issue.</p>
<p>Strikingly, the <a href="https://www.northernireland.gov.uk/consultations/draft-programme-government-framework-2016-21-and-questionnaire">draft programme for government</a> issued after this year’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/northern_ireland">assembly elections</a> doesn’t refer to the referendum, much less the possibility of the UK leaving the EU. That will have to change.</p>
<p>There is also the question of how exactly Northern Ireland will get its interests onto the negotiating table. London will be obliged to listen to its views, just as it will have to listen to the views of the other devolved administrations, but will it actually take them forward?</p>
<p>In the overall context of the UK-wide vote, the outcome matters little. However the result and the prospect of the UK leaving the EU open up a multitude of questions and challenges for Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>Concerns have long been expressed over what leaving the EU could mean for Northern Ireland’s economy. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36510787">Forecasts</a> suggest that the effects will be negative, at least in the short and medium-term – and under most scenarios to be greater than for most of the rest of the UK. Time will tell, but even Leave supporters acknowledge that there will be some short-term economic pain.</p>
<h2>Together and apart</h2>
<p>The question of <a href="https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/">what Brexit would mean for the border</a> that Northern Ireland shares with the Republic of Ireland did come up during the campaign. </p>
<p>Both sides predictably offered different prognoses, but even some pro-Brexit voices <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/eu-referendum/leaving-eu-will-mean-return-of-border-posts-in-ireland-warns-lawson-34615093.html">acknowledged</a> that the status quo could not be sustained, regardless of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/common-travel-area-cta/common-travel-area-cta">Common Travel Area</a> arrangements between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.</p>
<p>The UK’s withdrawal means that in all probability, the current “soft” border between Ireland’s two parts, barely detectable to those crossing it, will have to become “harder”. Some forms of border control will have to be introduced to monitor and regulate the movement of people and of goods. </p>
<p>If the border on the island of Ireland is not made harder, then it could be that the Great Britain will become the de facto border, at least for immigration purposes. Taken to its fullest extent, this would require UK citizens living in Northern Ireland to go through passport controls on entering England, Scotland or Wales, just as they would if they were entering from outside the UK.</p>
<p>The Leave vote poses many questions, and for Northern Ireland they are particularly challenging. They also have the potential to be extremely divisive – a raw deal indeed for a region that voted to Remain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Phinnemore has received funding from the British Academy, the Economic and Social Research Council and the European Union. The views expressed here do not represent those of any of these funders</span></em></p>After voting to remain in the EU by 11 points, Northern Ireland must work out where its interests lie – and how best to defend them.David Phinnemore, Professor of European Politics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/322332014-10-08T05:19:33Z2014-10-08T05:19:33ZA Northern Ireland ‘border poll’ could help pave path of peace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60939/original/x7fs9jpv-1412610818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Martin McGuinness believes it's time for a border poll.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sinnfeinireland/7268714020/in/photolist-c5j4rw-akXxoK-am1mY1-atDWjW-atDXZj-oiB4fY-jR1Vcg-eaNxRj-az2z1Z-az2A1X-az2Ask-az5enq-jR3oAd-jR3q3m-nHUgzc-nFVewU-paT7u8-npCy5k-az5dbL-bjWUzz-atDXLy-axv4ym-jSpRRt-ax7bXd-ax4qZi-axpY7x-ay386j-axsKYA-ax7fCo-jSqAN8-nFVdMs-ay37Uy-avCYBx-ax79yE-ax4tHt-avXajf-c5j4f5-ax9MvR-axctAh-axsDWC-oTXxm4-arvJUF-arvK34-arvKoP-arvKFT-eaJKbK-npCdKE-arvLpz-atHfyW-axsEdG">Sinn Fein</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of the Scottish referendum, Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, renewed his party Sinn Féin’s call for a “border poll” to decide if Northern Ireland should leave the UK and unify with the Republic of Ireland.</p>
<p>Such a vote appears likely to result in a No vote, but might nevertheless provide an opportunity for the people of Northern Ireland to feel ownership of their progress away from conflict and towards peace.</p>
<p>For McGuinness, the Scottish independence referendum <a href="http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/31505">“showed that it is possible to discuss important constitutional issues in a spirit of respect for all sides”</a>. His view is not shared by the first minister, Peter Robinson, though. Robinson, a member of the Democratic Unionist Party, argues that a poll is unnecessary because <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/scotland-independence-vote/scottish-referendum-sinn-feins-martin-mcguinness-calls-for-northern-ireland-border-poll-following-scotland-result-30600629.html">“more and more people in Northern Ireland want to maintain the status quo”</a> .</p>
<p>The leaders are, nevertheless, planning to meet soon with their Scottish and Welsh counterparts to discuss their shared interest in the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-29403172">expansion of devolution from Westminster</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-says-yes-to-a-border-poll-but-a-firm-no-to-united-ireland-30622987.html">Belfast Telegraph poll</a> conducted a week after the Scottish referendum claimed a majority of voters in Northern Ireland wanted a border poll. But it also showed that if one were to take place, 59.8% would vote against unifying with the Republic of Ireland. The results suggest that a nuanced constitutional debate is possible in Northern Ireland – a possibility that has not yet been fully harnessed by political leaders.</p>
<p>The campaign around the Scottish independence referendum brought energy to political debates in the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/12/guardian-view-scottish-independence">UK</a> and <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/if-scotland-says-yes-what-will-ulster-say-1.1922025#.VA7LM8Od6hI.facebook">Ireland</a>, while attracting international commentary as a victory for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/04/scotland-is-having-a-proper-democratic-debate-australia-should-be-so-lucky?CMP=soc_567">participative</a> and <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e2cdcc62-3f5a-11e4-984b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Eqr0sW2c">deliberative democracy</a>. Political leaders in the UK and Ireland ought to seize upon that momentum and use it to transform their relationships with citizens.</p>
<p>As University of Edinburgh professor <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-ballot-is-not-stoking-nationalism-in-northern-ireland-25175">Christine Bell</a> has suggested, the hope for those beyond Westminster “must be for a new and more creative engagement between centre and periphery on constitutional development”. Indeed, the UK now finds itself at the beginning of a debate about <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-vote-gives-uk-a-chance-to-repair-itself-but-its-a-big-job-31918">devolving greater powers</a> to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.</p>
<h2>Peace and justice</h2>
<p>Under international law, every state is obliged to ensure that its people are free to exercise the universal <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx">right of self-determination</a>. States are entitled to territorial integrity only to the extent that they empower their citizens to <a href="http://www.un-documents.net/a25r2625.htm">achieve self-determination</a>.</p>
<p>A one-off exercise of self-determination, such as through a referendum on independence, is not enough to demonstrate a state’s respect for that right. Self-determination is an <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2395899">ongoing process</a>, which ought to enable people to continually assess the degree to which they are free to determine their political, social, economic and cultural destiny.</p>
<p>The Irish peace process has enabled a shift from violent conflict to political conflict, played out largely through democratic institutions. But the perception that peace has been achieved belies the fact that the <a href="http://sls.sagepub.com/content/13/3/305.abstract">“meta-conflict” remains unresolved</a>. Progress has been towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/halting-prosecutions-for-the-troubles-will-deny-justice-20619">“war by other means”</a>, a continuing debate over the conflict and the status of Northern Ireland. The collective human right of self-determination remains a missing piece in the puzzle.</p>
<p>Self-determination is a right heavily associated with the <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Imperialism_Sovereignty_and_the_Making_o.html?id=VJuHlZ1_fbEC&redir_esc=y">decolonisation period of the 1960s and 1970s</a> but perhaps the time is ripe for the discussion to be re-opened, now that Scotland’s debate has captured so many imaginations.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement">Good Friday/Belfast Agreement</a> has made a significant contribution to shifting the conflict into a peaceful phase but has been less effective in promoting a peace that is grounded in justice. Some have even argued that the people of Northern Ireland must choose between peace and justice. Some argue that prosecuting political leaders for past crimes poses too great a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/gerry-adams-jean-mcconville-south-africa-painful-compromise">risk to social stability</a> to be pursued.</p>
<p>The path to justice in post-conflict societies is complicated by the need to reconcile the past with current and future goals, including an <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2012.734809?queryID=%24%7BresultBean.queryID%7D#.VDEkxxAufO8">acknowledgement of past wrongs</a>. But it is still possible – and worthwhile – to pursue both justice and peace in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>An effective process of <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Transitional_Justice.html?id=irSiMmUQXKEC">transitional justice</a> can acknowledge colonialism and its impacts in Ireland and promote self-determination. Such a process would necessarily focus on truth-telling and <a href="http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1894&context=ilj">dealing with the past</a>. Citizens and political leaders would need to address their communal moral duty to recognise the position of the many people who still <a href="https://theconversation.com/halting-prosecutions-for-the-troubles-will-deny-justice-20619">carry hurt from the conflict</a>. Effective transitional justice would require all parties, including the British state, to confront their roles in the conflict and their aspirations for the peace.</p>
<p>A border poll for Northern Ireland could provide people with a similar sense of ownership of the deliberative process as the people of Scotland have recently embraced. The secretary of state for Northern Ireland has the power to call such a referendum under the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement. In considering whether or not to go ahead, Theresa Villiers will need to question McGuinness’ assertion that Northern Ireland can embrace such a deliberative process “in a spirit of respect for all sides”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Maguire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the wake of the Scottish referendum, Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, renewed his party Sinn Féin’s call for a “border poll” to decide if Northern Ireland should leave…Amy Maguire, Lecturer in International Law, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251752014-04-11T05:14:50Z2014-04-11T05:14:50ZScottish ballot is not stoking nationalism in Northern Ireland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46012/original/qfc7f7gp-1397051788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Irish situation is delicate enough without talk of referendums anywhere near Stormont</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/joelriley/2592473493/in/photolist-4X673R-4Xao2U-4XanoL-4X66rx-4X67mH-8xxPgy-299DNJ-bu2J99-6pc599-4zM4g1-c4BdX1-bSuS3X-h7MCnG-65Y9DM-bV33Zy-dWHryE-bGqeCX-e3FRLJ-3kCAJ-84RCLg-84RCt6-84ULoC-btvpmo-84RD4i-84RB9i-3kCAK-84UJVU-84UKb1-84UJGu-84UKtj-afVEEa-LHPqJ-PWacw-PW2rh-PW2qu-PWac9-PW2qJ-PW2qs-PWabJ-PWaco-PWacd-PW2qy-PWac5-PW2qG-6p7Wg6-4DYEVJ-NMhKh-GYMgA-bF5qsc-GYMh3">Joel Riley</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Northern Ireland’s oldest joke is that a man is asked, “Are you Protestant or Catholic?” to which he replies, “Actually I’m Jewish”. </p>
<p>His questioner responds: “Yes but are you a Protestant or a Catholic Jew?” </p>
<p>In the joke is the recognisable truth that in Northern Ireland all comparative debates are engaged with not just on their own terms, but on their significance for the troubles. </p>
<p>This has been true of the approach to Scottish independence. When the referendum was launched, Ulster Unionist politician <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16749576">Lord Empey indicated</a> that a referendum could destabilise Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Martin McGuiness, the deputy first minister (Sinn Féin), <a href="http://socialistparty.ie/2012/03/sectarian-parties-will-exploit-scottish-referendum/">quickly responded</a> that Northern Ireland should stay out of Scotland’s right to decide its own future. Neither response was “neutral” – Empey was affirming the Union and McGuiness a right to unilateral self-determination. </p>
<p>Later <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/02/n-ireland-frets-at-scotland-independence-vote-201421612192349625.html">Gerry Adams indicated</a>, perhaps more for his Southern Irish audience (where he now stands for election), that the Scottish referendum increased the impetus for a referendum in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Interestingly, there has been no unionist return to statements from that side in the 1970s which indicated that in the event of the break-up of the two key kingdoms of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland might decide which one it wanted to stay in union with. </p>
<p>Despite this initial discussion, Northern Ireland has enjoyed a level of protection from contagion as referendum fever has progressed in Scotland. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement">Belfast/Good Friday Agreement</a> and <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/contents">Northern Ireland Act 1998</a> make clear provision for a referendum, unlike the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents">Scotland Act 1998</a>. This clarity over when and how a referendum can be called has set limits which have curbed game playing. </p>
<p>Yet at a more existential level, the debate matters greatly. Exactly how it matters is complicated, because how to read Scotland’s implications for Northern Ireland cuts different ways culturally and politically.</p>
<h2>The rise of the Ulster-Scots</h2>
<p>Culturally the Northern Irish Protestants and unionists revere their Scottish ancestry and connections and look to Scotland as their kin. Affirming their Ulster-Scots identity has become more politically significant to the community since the 1998 Agreement. </p>
<p>Their culture and language, which is little different to that of Scots, has been re-awakened partly as an attempt to find a positive identity rather than being “not Irish” or “merely British”. </p>
<p>More problematically, affirming their culture has led unionist communities to compete for funding with nationalists, where the culture has traditionally been strong and there has been a more established revival of the Irish language. </p>
<p>Politically there could even be a possible sneaking unionist regard for the straightforward approach and political positions of the SNP, perhaps rooted in the now almost-forgotten loyalist yearning for an independent Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>One can imagine that Alex Salmond’s ability to just speak for Scotland as its first minister and propose unilateral action in the name of his majority vote might appear attractive to someone like Peter Robinson. </p>
<p>The unionist Northern Irish premier can neither speak as unilateral first minister nor claim to represent the country on his own, yet he would share Salmond’s basic distrust of the UK central government policies regarding his devolved territory. </p>
<p>But at the same time, nationalism is the terrain and language of Irish nationalists. Scottish nationalism and the referendum most threatens unionists, who would be thrown into deep existential turmoil – along with the rest of the UK - were Scotland to vote yes in September.</p>
<h2>The nationalist dilemma</h2>
<p>As for Irish nationalists, they have remained relatively muted about the Scottish referendum despite Gerry Adams’ comments - even though you might assume that the possibility of just suddenly dismantling the UK would be a boon to them. </p>
<p>The fact is that with Ireland’s economic woes, this would be the worst of all possible times to try to win a referendum for a united Ireland. Ireland lost portions of its own sovereignty during the financial crisis, undermining the argument that unity would allow self-determination for a single Ireland. </p>
<p>As in Iceland, the collapse has led to profound questions about the adequacy of the current political class and pressure for profound change. Apart from the difficulty of persuading a critical mass of liberal Protestants to vote for a project they have not bought into in significant numbers before, one suspects that any all-Ireland referendum campaign might even struggle to keep its nationalist core onside. </p>
<p>Sinn Féin has avoided overt support for a yes vote in Scotland because it knows that the party’s divisive associations would be unhelpful to the SNP. But this circumspection has perhaps also suited at home. </p>
<p>At present, therefore, Northern Ireland has more to fear from politics at home than politics in Scotland. The peace process is being undermined by a complicated set of factors, which boil down to uncompleted business from the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. Dissidents on all sides appear to be gaining capacity to act on the back of the unease. </p>
<p>People in Northern Ireland tend to see the glass as half full when it comes to peace no matter how rosy the future. But recently even US diplomat Richard Haas, having failed to secure agreement over resolving these issues, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-26535987">recently warned</a> the US Congress that Northern Ireland stood a real chance of back-sliding into conflict without urgent attention. </p>
<p>These difficulties have little to do with the Scottish referendum, and without serious attention Northern Ireland’s peace process may well unravel whatever the Scottish result (although we must continue to hope and pray not). </p>
<p>What Scotland’s referendum and Northern Ireland’s disintegrating peace process do speak to is a UK tendency to believe its rhetoric that devolution was a policy option that it successfully rolled out across regions before continuing with business as usual. </p>
<p>This has meant that successive UK governments have tended to underestimate the alternative visions and tensions in how devolution was understood by those implementing it at the periphery. </p>
<p>The hope at the centre must be that it emerges from both troubled moments with the union unscathed. The hope at the periphery must be for a new and more creative engagement between centre and periphery on constitutional development, whatever happens in Scotland this September.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Northern Ireland’s oldest joke is that a man is asked, “Are you Protestant or Catholic?” to which he replies, “Actually I’m Jewish”. His questioner responds: “Yes but are you a Protestant or a Catholic…Christine Bell, Professor of Constitutional Law, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/34962011-10-20T19:32:50Z2011-10-20T19:32:50ZIreland’s historic vote on the presidential ambitions of Martin McGuinness<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4558/original/McGuinness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Martin McGuinness' candidacy for the Irish Presidency calls for voters to look to the country's history.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Paul McErlane </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The critical importance of the Irish presidency was underscored by current incumbent in an address to the <a href="http://www.globalirishforum.ie/">Global Irish Economic Forum </a>earlier this month. <a href="http://www.president.ie/index.php?section=20&lang=eng">President Mary MacAleese</a> welcomed 270 delegates drawn from 37 nations to “a gathering that makes sense of and gives perspective to the dispersal and scattering of our family over many generations.” </p>
<p>Her tenure was underpinned by an emphasis on breaking down barriers within and between political communities on both parts of the island. She argued Ireland must transcend its history by refashioning the political, economic and cultural narrative.</p>
<p>“We are very proud of our lavish and sophisticated cultural reservoir, so ancient on the one hand and yet such a dynamic and evergreen part of the present,” she said. This dynamism “turned around almost a millennium of baleful conflict ridden history and opened us up to a peaceful future underpinned by a robust architecture of shared structures and mutually acknowledged rights and responsibilities.” </p>
<h2>Economic renewal</h2>
<p>The failure to attend to broader purpose of governance has led the country to the precipice of ruin. </p>
<p>Notwithstanding a weak facsimile of the <a href="http://theconversation.com/did-twitter-censor-occupy-wall-street-3822">Occupy Wall Street protests</a> outside the Central Bank headquarters in Dublin, the mood in Ireland itself is one of stoical acceptance; dynamism replaced by clinical depression. </p>
<p>The challenge to reinvigorate the narrative is profound. Delegates were reminded they were invited so that policymakers could “rack your brains individually and collectively, to harness your input as we redeem our current economic narrative by creating new opportunities for trade, investment and employment.” </p>
<h2>Shared vision</h2>
<p>The sheer size and power of the Irish diaspora reflects ongoing failure rather than success.</p>
<p>Dealing with the pain of separation and loss is not merely a historical debate. It is a pressing contemporary reality. </p>
<p>This, in turn, requires more than short-term economic solutions. It requires the building of a shared vision for the country that is then reflected in the persona of the president. </p>
<p>The paradox is that two of the leading candidates to succeed President MacAleese in an <a href="http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/elections_and_referenda/national_elections/presidential_election.html">election on 27 October</a> are constrained by personal histories that elevate evasion over honest reflection. </p>
<h2>Questionable past</h2>
<p>Sinn Fein’s <a href="http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/14970">Martin McGuinness</a>, the erstwhile Deputy First Minister of the Northern Ireland Executive, is standing as an independent “down here.” He is unable to give the Irish Republic its full name. He refers instead to the need to integrate the failings of the “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/northernireland/ashorthistory/archive/intro226.shtml">twenty-six counties</a>” to the success of the northern experiment. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/4072261.stm">peace process</a> was built on and continues to thrive on creative ambiguity to questions of personal past complicity in political violence.</p>
<p>His presidential campaign is not simply a <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/martin-mcguinness-downplays-ira-role-in-rte-interview-16057611.html">retrospective justification</a> of the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/northern_ireland/understanding/parties_paramilitaries/ira.stm">IRA</a>. </p>
<p>Much more significantly, it is a refutation of the institutionalisation of the twenty-six county state as the nation. </p>
<h2>100 years on</h2>
<p>The centennial roll call of pivotal events that gave rise to partition is deeply problematic. The arming of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/easterrising/profiles/po20.shtml">Ulster Volunteer Force</a>. The signing of the <a href="http://www.proni.gov.uk/index/search_the_archives/ulster_covenant.htm">Ulster Covenant</a>. The disintegration of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/victorians/home_rule_movement_01.shtml">Home Rule movement</a>. The outbreak of the <a href="http://www.greatwar.co.uk/">Great War</a>. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/easterrising/">Easter Rising</a> and the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/easterrising/aftermath/af01.shtml">execution of its leaders</a>. The <a href="http://theirishwar.com/history/irish-war-of-independence/">War of Independence</a> and the resulting <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/events/northern_ireland/history/64206.stm">Civil War</a>. </p>
<p>All of these anniversaries fall within the new presidential term. How each is to commemorated and the role to be played by the presidency remain undecided. </p>
<p>Critically, they make McGuinness an exceptionally divisive candidate. They also highlight the unresolved nature of the peace process itself. </p>
<h2>Celebrity candidate</h2>
<p>Another faux independent is <a href="http://www.seangallagher.com/">Sean Gallagher</a>, a former National Executive member of <a href="http://www.fiannafail.ie/">Fianna Fail</a>, the erstwhile dominant political force in the Irish Republic. </p>
<p>The party was decimated because of its stewardship as the ship of state crashed on the rocks of economic hubris. </p>
<p>Gallagher, however, is coy about his past affiliation. He prefers to emphasise his role in creating jobs. His core qualification, beyond extremely small-scale job creation initiatives underpinned by government grants, is <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/15/sean-gallagher-ireland-president-election?newsfeed=true">his role as a judge</a> on a reality show for budding entrepreneurs. </p>
<p>If the McGuinness campaign is about reclaiming history the Gallagher campaign is about denying its very existence. </p>
<h2>Compromise candidate</h2>
<p>This then leaves the third major credible candidate, <a href="http://www.michaeldhiggins.ie/">Michael D Higgins</a> of the <a href="http://www.labour.ie/">Labour Party</a>. His knowledge of and respect for the institutions of Irish political and cultural life, including his fluency in the Irish language, make him a clear compromise candidate. </p>
<p>He is most capable of garnering the transfers of defeated candidates. At 70, Higgins is, however, constrained by the perception that this is a job to supplement his pension. </p>
<p>The failure of Labour to date to transcend the historical dominance of the national question is also a potential block. </p>
<h2>Voting on the past</h2>
<p>The current administration, led by <a href="http://www.finegael.ie/">Fine Gael</a>, traces its history to the Civil War. It differentiates itself from <a href="http://www.fiannafail.ie/">Fianna Fail</a> less on substantive contemporary grounds than on historical divisions. </p>
<p>Its candidate, <a href="http://gaymitchell2011.ie/">Gay Mitchell</a>, has failed to enliven the debate. According to the opinion polls he and his party is likely to be humiliated. </p>
<p>The importance of the election pivots on whether ongoing national depression will result in the denial of the past or the elevation of ignorance about it. </p>
<p>Neither option is appealing. The task of building a new social compact informed by what constitutes Irish core values has only just begun. </p>
<p>The tragedy for Ireland is that President MacAleese will not be there to see it through.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/3496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin O'Brien receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He was a delegate to the Global Irish Economic Forum at the invitation of the Irish Government. </span></em></p>The critical importance of the Irish presidency was underscored by current incumbent in an address to the Global Irish Economic Forum earlier this month. President Mary MacAleese welcomed 270 delegates…Justin O'Brien, Professor of Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.