tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/nationals-12078/articlesNationals – The Conversation2024-02-15T09:30:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236392024-02-15T09:30:27Z2024-02-15T09:30:27ZGrattan on Friday: Morrison’s departure will help Liberals ‘move on’ but Nationals can’t ‘move on’ until Barnaby does<p>Scott Morrison will say his farewell to parliament the week after next. This timing happens to follow neatly Monday’s final episode in the ABC’s Nemesis series, in which some Coalition figures excoriated their former leader and Morrison defended his record. </p>
<p>For the Liberals, Morrison’s departure is a significant symbolic “moving on” moment. It’s not that he has had any influence, or been disruptive, since the election. But even though he’s been hardly noticed publicly, his presence in the parliamentary party has been a reminder of all that went wrong last term. </p>
<p>The Coalition Morrison is exiting is a mixed bunch, in terms of performance, illustrated by the first weeks of this year. </p>
<p>The opposition could not have avoided being outfoxed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s bold reworking of the tax cuts. But it could have prevented the Liberals’ deputy leader, Sussan Ley, impulsively suggesting a Dutton government would roll back the tax cuts, which a nanosecond of thought would have told her would never happen. It was typical of Ley, and a bone Labor hasn’t stopped chewing.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the row over the ex-detainees – released by the government from immigration detention after a High Court decision last year – has shown how an opposition working effectively can have a minister squirming. </p>
<p>The Liberals used material from this week’s Senate estimates hearing to pound Immigration Minister Andrew Giles in the House of Representatives. Although the issue probably doesn’t have its pre-Christmas resonance with the public, the operation reminded that Liberal Senator James Paterson is one of the opposition’s best-performing frontbenchers. Paterson is on top of a broad national security brief and (regardless of whether you agree with him or not) conveys his points effectively in media interviews. </p>
<p>In contrast, the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, still struggles to cut through. Despite performing better than last year, Taylor is unable to land a blow on Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Given the centrality of the economic debate, this is a serious problem for Peter Dutton. </p>
<p>Taylor is lucky there’s no colleague stalking for his job. Those with long memories will recall Julie Bishop’s fate as shadow treasurer under Malcolm Turnbull. When she floundered, Joe Hockey was there coveting her post and inevitably she had to agree to move. </p>
<p>Finance spokeswoman Jane Hume is diligent, prominent in the media and improving. She does best when she limits the gratuitous political attacks. </p>
<p>Michael Sukkar, shadow minister for housing, seems largely missing in action on the red-hot issue of housing, a crucial battleground for the election. The opposition shouldn’t just be more active in the day-to-day debate – it should be releasing an alternative policy sooner rather than later. A comprehensive housing policy should logically be at the core of an agenda for the “aspirationals” the Liberals like to talk about.</p>
<p>We don’t hear as much as we should on education from spokeswoman Sarah Henderson. While education is often considered a “Labor” issue, poor results and declining retention rates at school level and key issues facing higher education are meaty areas for debate. </p>
<p>Andrew Hastie is well qualified on defence but not as much to the fore as might be expected. Prominent in the conservative wing of the Liberal Party, Hastie also needs to broaden his profile for the future. </p>
<p>Anne Ruston could make more of her health and aged care remit. There are many questions around the post-pandemic management of COVID, and the long-term sustainability of Medicare. Ruston will soon have a ready-made issue in aged care, when the government finally releases the report it is sitting on, canvassing ways forward for the sector’s financing. The Howard, Hawke and Morrison governments all found aged care perilous. </p>
<p>Among the Nationals, their Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, has proved very effective this term, notably on Qantas and Qatar Airways. </p>
<p>Jacinta Price was a highly successful “no” campaigner in the referendum, but the harder test will be whether she can find some credible positive answers for improving Indigenous people’s conditions. Her proposed audit of spending might have some merit, but it falls short as a policy.</p>
<p>Dutton needs to reshuffle his frontbench ASAP. He hasn’t even filled the vacancy left by last year’s resignation from parliament of the Robodebt-tainted Stuart Robert, who was shadow assistant treasurer. Marise Payne’s departure left vacant the spot of shadow cabinet secretary.</p>
<p>The frontbench certainly would benefit from some new talent. Constraints such as state representations complicate things, but if merit were the criterion, Zoe McKenzie and Keith Wolahan, both Victorians, are deserving. </p>
<p>Julian Leeser, who stepped down to the backbench to campaign for “yes” in the referendum, now appears to have less chance of a return in a reshuffle than was initially thought. That’s unfortunate, because restoring him as shadow attorney-general would be sensible. Having Michaelia Cash in that job as well as workplace relations is overload on steroids. </p>
<p>In the longer term, the Coalition needs a refresh of talent at the 2025 election. Former minister Linda Reynolds (now on the backbench) announced this week she was not recontesting. Neither is junior frontbencher Nola Marino. </p>
<p>One-time Morrison henchman Alex Hawke (who has preselection) would be among those who don’t have much to contribute in another term. Dutton didn’t put Hawke on his frontbench.</p>
<p>Which brings us to Barnaby Joyce, whose future is a talking point after he was videoed sprawled on a Canberra street following too many drinks that he said interfered with his medication. </p>
<p>Both Dutton and the Nationals’ leader, David Littleproud, have advised Joyce he should take personal leave, Littleproud citing he had “family circumstances”, beyond the first explanation for his behaviour. Despite the advice, Joyce remained in parliament for the rest of this week. The pertinent question, however, is whether Joyce should run for another term. </p>
<p>Once hailed as a great “retail” politician, Joyce at the 2022 election was considered a retail negative in many Liberal seats. Dutton’s priority mightn’t be the recapture of “teal” seats – he’s concentrating on outer suburbia – but he doesn’t want a repeat of the perceived damage Joyce did last time. </p>
<p>Joyce may want to run again, but surely he shouldn’t. While he is in parliament, the Nationals will remain a tinderbox (even though they manage to hold their seats). The party, once known for its unity and discipline, won’t move on until Joyce moves on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223639/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the Liberals, Morrison’s departure is a significant symbolic “moving on” moment. But how does the coalitions new talent stack up and what should be done with the old guard?Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933802022-10-27T19:05:43Z2022-10-27T19:05:43ZMoney for dams dries up as good water management finally makes it into a federal budget<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492016/original/file-20221027-23859-8g7fsa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5551%2C3675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wyangala Dam</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A story from the early days of the Abbott government still circulates in the halls of Parliament House.</p>
<p>The government’s Expenditure Review Committee apparently supported then Minister for Agriculture Barnaby Joyce’s first A$500 million budget funding for the National Party’s dam-building plans, over then Treasurer Joe Hockey’s objections. Hockey reputedly said to Joyce “good luck with that, I don’t think you’ll build one of them”. If true then Joe, take a cigar.</p>
<p>In our land of drought and flooding rains, better water management should feature in every federal budget. Thankfully, the budget handed down by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday delivers it.</p>
<p>It slashes spending on big dams and elevates the role of science in water decision-making. It also positions Labor to undertake further reform in the Murray-Darling Basin by buying back more water from farmers to improve the health of the rivers, and manage the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>These measures promise to deliver more sustainable use of water in Australia’s most economically important and exploited river system. But they also buy a fight with some quarters of the farming community, and the New South Wales and Victorian governments.</p>
<h2>Nationals set about building dams</h2>
<p>Dams are a talisman for Australians <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0725513618821970">who believe</a> development and the conquest of nature is essential to nation-building. </p>
<p>The National Party arguably exemplifies this ideology. It gained control of the water portfolios in the former federal government and current NSW government and set about trying to <a href="https://barnabyjoyce.com.au/opinion-piece">build dams</a>, especially in the Murray-Darling Basin.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party has conceded to National Party demands on water even though the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/policy/nwi">National Water Initiative</a>, established by the Coalition in 2004, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/water/Intergovernmental-Agreement-on-a-national-water-initiative.pdf">stipulates</a>:</p>
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<p>proposals for investment in new or refurbished water infrastructure […] be assessed as economically viable and ecologically sustainable prior to the investment occurring.</p>
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<p>This week’s budget wields a long overdue axe to dam proposals from Coalition governments, saving <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/download/bp1_2022-23.pdf">$1.7 billion over four years</a>. Two of the most controversial dam proposals in the Murray-Darling Basin are among those axed or indefinitely postponed. </p>
<p>First is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/17/dungowan-dam-likely-dead-in-the-water-after-infrastructure-australia-deems-proposal-low-priority">$1.27 billion</a> Dungowan proposal near Tamworth in NSW. <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/water-reform-2020/report">It was slammed</a> by the Productivity Commission as excessively expensive and the leading example of poor water infrastructure decision making. </p>
<p>Second is the hugely expensive - up to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-18/wyangala-dam-wall-raising-missing-from-election-campaign-/101072664">$2.1 billion at last estimate</a> - raising of Wyangala Dam, near Cowra. In 2021 a NSW <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2614#tab-reportsandgovernmentresponses">parliamentary inquiry</a> found the proposal was “yet to demonstrate the cost effectiveness and water yield benefits of the project”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-sensible-budget-leaves-australians-short-changed-on-climate-action-heres-where-it-went-wrong-193215">Labor's 'sensible' budget leaves Australians short-changed on climate action. Here's where it went wrong</a>
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<p>Further, $153.8 million of unallocated funding in former “water efficiency” projects in the basin has been (somewhat ambiguously) “re-profiled”. These efficiency projects have been <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2019.1579965">criticised as</a> double-counting water at the expense of the environment, being very expensive and subsidising irrigators. </p>
<p>Importantly, Labor has quietly sought to lock a commitment to better governance with transparent environmental and socio-economic assessment standards in a new <a href="https://www.nationalwatergrid.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/investment-framework-october-2022.pdf">National Water Grid Investment Framework</a>.</p>
<h2>Science and the Murray-Darling Basin</h2>
<p>Labor has allocated $51.9 million over five years to strengthen the Murray-Darling Basin Plan “by updating the science to account for the impacts of climate change and restore trust and transparency in water management”.</p>
<p>This spending is timely. The past decade and more has seen risk-averse government agencies commission water research through narrow briefs to the government-owned CSIRO and other contractors. In one instance, the South Australian Royal Commission into the <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2019-01/apo-nid217606.pdf">Murray-Darling Basin</a> described this research as “improperly pressured” and representing “maladministration”.</p>
<p>The situation worsened when the research program into better water management commissioned by the independent National Water Commission was <a href="https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/volume-13/issue-1/561-a13-1-1">axed under Abbott</a> in 2014.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying-192621">Excessive water extractions, not climate change, are most to blame for the Darling River drying</a>
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<p>This has resulted in science that may not be independently peer-reviewed and often doesn’t address the big questions.</p>
<p>For instance, after allocating around <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/programs/water-reform">$13 billion</a> for water management reforms in the basin since 2008, governments still can’t tell the public:</p>
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<li><p>why water inflows into South Australia are about <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/2020/09/mdb-flows-2020/">22% lower</a> than basin modelling projected (excluding climatic variability)</p></li>
<li><p>the area and types of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF20172">wetlands watered</a> each year </p></li>
<li><p>if <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21057">threatened species populations</a> are recovering. </p></li>
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<p>Further, water institutions in the basin do not currently adequately <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S146290112030215X">address the threat</a> of climate change.</p>
<h2>Returning water to the rivers</h2>
<p>Measures to implement the basin plan are meant to be complete in mid-2024. Consequently, allocated funding for all Basin water reforms was due to decline markedly after this point. Yet, major and expensive elements of the plan have still <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/reckoning-coming-for-murray-darling-basin-plan/101020756">not been implemented</a>.</p>
<p>In just one example, the Victorian and NSW governments were supposed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2020.1832723">to reach agreements</a> and pay over 3,300 riverside land owners to fill river channels and allow water to spill safely onto the lower-most floodplains. This would conserve nearly 375,000 hectares of wetlands, and maximise conservation of flora and fauna with the limited volume of available environmental water. </p>
<p>However, since 2013 the state governments have failed to make a single agreement with land owners.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A river on a sunny day, behind two big trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Murrumbidgee river at Yanga Woolshed, a major tributary of the Murray-Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Pittock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Hundreds of billions of litres of water that were supposed to have been reallocated to the environment are still missing. The latest federal budget describes the lack of water recovery for the environment as an unquantified “fiscal risk”. </p>
<p>Waving a big stick, Labor has allocated initial funding for meeting the environmental water targets in the plan. The amount of the funding has not been disclosed. It could involve purchasing water entitlements from farmers who volunteer to sell them – a move deeply <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/27/farmers-gear-up-to-fight-water-buybacks-as-federal-budget-allocates-funding-to-meet-murray-darling-targets">opposed by</a> the state governments and the irrigation industry.</p>
<p>The budget also funds repairs to other broken elements of the basin’s water governance. After a decade of cuts, the now Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp2/index.htm">will have funding</a> restored to, among other goals, improve “the health of our rivers and freshwater ecosystems”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-ugly-legacy-of-denying-water-rights-to-aboriginal-people-not-much-has-changed-141743">Australia has an ugly legacy of denying water rights to Aboriginal people. Not much has changed</a>
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<p>There is also money to start work on re-establishing a National Water Commission, and <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/index.htm">to reform</a> the much criticised water trading markets to make them more transparent and robust. </p>
<p>Finally, the budget allocates $40 million to begin addressing the appalling dispossession of water from Indigenous peoples, who now hold <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2021.1970094?src=recsys">just 0.17%</a> of surface water entitlements in the basin. It’s a small but important first step for water justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, and is a member of and advises a number of other environmental non-government organizations. Many moons ago he received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (RIP) for research on on climate change adaptation in the Murray-Darling Basin.</span></em></p>In our land of drought and flooding rains, better water management should feature in every federal budget. The new budget delivers it – but not everyone is happy.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1891122022-08-21T09:34:49Z2022-08-21T09:34:49ZBarnaby Joyce says he feared retribution if he crossed Morrison over resources power grab<p>Anthony Albanese flagged at the weekend he was open to calling an inquiry into the ramifications of Scott Morrison’s power grab, as Barnaby Joyce revealed he feared retribution if he crossed Morrison for overruling a Nationals minister. </p>
<p>Albanese on Monday will release the solicitor-general’s advice on the affair, as the controversy around Morrison’s extraordinary action in wading into multiple portfolios without informing his cabinet runs into its second week.</p>
<p>Asked on Sky whether he would call an inquiry even if (as expected) the solicitor-general found Morrison acted legally, Albanese said, “very clearly there’s a need for proper scrutiny of what occurred here. This was an undermining of our parliamentary democracy.”</p>
<p>He said that separately from the legal side there were questions of whether conventions had been overturned and whether reforms were needed so this could never happen again. </p>
<p>“We’ll examine all of those issues after we receive the solicitor-general’s advice.” </p>
<p>Joyce, interviewed on the ABC, gave a confused account of what he knew and when. He was deputy prime minister when Morrison overruled Nationals resources minister Keith Pitt over the PEP-11 gas exploration off the NSW coast. </p>
<p>Morrison decided to rule out exploration for political reasons, while Pitt, who as minister had the formal decision-making power, had an opposite view. Morrison had ensured he could get his way by becoming resources minister. </p>
<p>Joyce told the ABC he became aware “obliquely” that Morrison had the power to decide the PEP-11 matter. </p>
<p>During discussions on PEP-11 “it became more apparent that the prime minister had greater powers than I initially assumed,” Joyce said. </p>
<p>Joyce said if he had resisted Morrison’s action, the Nationals could have lost the extra ministry place he had obtained for them. As well as the extra spot Joyce said he had negotiated another person on cabinet’s expenditure review committee, and extra staff. And there were billions of dollars for regional areas, as part of the deal Joyce struck for the Nationals signing up to the net zero by 2050 commitment. </p>
<p>“I thought I would ask myself three questions [about Morrison moving into resources]. Is it legal? Under section 64 [of the constitution] he can do that.</p>
<p>"Is there anything I can do to change it back? No. </p>
<p>"Has he got the capacity to re-negotiate my extra minister that I had just dealt into the National party hand? Yes, he could say, ‘Yeah. I will fix your problem, mate. I will take the ministry back off you. Problem fixed for you’. Problem fixed for me. Bad outcome for the National party.”</p>
<p>Joyce said he couldn’t remember exactly when Morrison had told him he could overrule Pitt. Morrison had made himself resources minister in April 2021, while Michael McCormack was still Nationals leader, and Joyce did not know of the arrangement when he ousted McCormack.</p>
<h2>UPDATE, Monday: Albanese to release advice on Tuesday</h2>
<p>Albanese said he would release the solicitor-general’s advice on Tuesday. He told a Monday news conference the advice had been received and he would be briefed on it by his departmental head, Glyn Davis, during the afternoon. He said it would go to cabinet on Tuesday.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Barnaby Joyce was deputy prime minister when Morrison overruled Nationals resources minister Keith Pitt over the PEP-11 gas exploration off the NSW coast.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858732022-06-29T00:56:31Z2022-06-29T00:56:31ZDoes Labor have ‘total control’ in Western Australia?<p>Just before the Western Australian state election in March 2021, the then leader of the Liberal Party did an unusual thing. He conceded defeat – but then asked voters to stop premier Mark McGowan’s Labor Party from achieving “total control” of the state. </p>
<p>The appeal failed spectacularly. <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/landslide-in-the-west/">McGowan won 53 of the 59 seats in the legislative assembly</a> and a majority for the first time ever in WA’s upper house, the legislative council.</p>
<p>The Liberals, shattered, were reduced to just two seats in the assembly. The Nationals, with a grand total of four seats, became the official opposition, and a Nationals MP, Mia Davies, was elected opposition leader. The question immediately arose: could parliament <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-thumping-win-in-western-australia-carries-risks-for-both-sides-156301">operate effectively</a> in these extraordinary circumstances? Would sufficient democratic scrutiny be applied to the government?</p>
<p>Just over a year later, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/swing-when-youre-winning-how-labor-won-big-in-western-australia-183599">federal election</a> provided another crushing blow to the WA Liberals. The party lost not only four lower house seats and a senate seat to Labor, but also the seat of Curtin to independent Kate Chaney.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/swing-when-youre-winning-how-labor-won-big-in-western-australia-183599">Swing when you're winning: how Labor won big in Western Australia</a>
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<p>WA has 122 state and federal MPs. Currently, 89 of them – almost three-quarters – are Labor. Less than six years ago, the comparable figure was 41, or a third. By contrast, the Liberals have just 19 MPs or 16% of the total, compared to 64, or just over half, six years ago. Perhaps we need to take the fears of “total control” seriously?</p>
<p>Senator Linda Reynolds, the former Liberal defence minister, seems to think so. She <a href="https://thewest.com.au/opinion/linda-reynolds-democracy-depends-on-bringing-liberals-back-from-abyss-c-7267717">recently argued</a> that “without substantial change, we risk condemning Western Australia to a one-party state and the WA Liberals to an electoral abyss”. </p>
<h2>So far, so good?</h2>
<p>Everyone would agree democracy works best when a strong opposition can keep the government accountable. So what is happening in WA? Is democracy in danger?</p>
<p>So far, the answer would appear to be no. Take parliament. Parties with a majority of MPs can, in principle, run roughshod over their opponents in parliament. In practice, most don’t. While governments will occasionally force through legislation or resist pressure to reveal information, rules and conventions enable non-government parties to participate in debates and committees, and to scrutinise the executive about its actions and proposed legislation. </p>
<p>Governing parties know one day they will be in opposition, and parliament should at the very least let the opposition have its say, even if the government prevails. </p>
<p>Despite the vast disparity in numbers, this attitude seems to be holding up in WA. Question time is still operating, unchanged. The parliamentary schedule continues to allow non-government MPs to bring forward debates on matters of public importance, private members’ business and grievances. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-usually-win-a-second-term-but-could-the-new-labor-government-be-an-exception-184845">Governments usually win a second term. But could the new Labor government be an exception?</a>
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<p>Estimates hearings continue to be held, as are meetings of parliamentary committees. As in the past, the opposition chairs one committee in the assembly, two in the council, and the joint audit committee. The deputy Liberal leader <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-23/report-into-sexual-assaults-in-fifo-industry-tabled/101173604">chaired a prominent committee inquiry</a> into sexual harassment in the resources sector. </p>
<p>Of course, with so few seats, the workload of non-government MPs is very large. The government has a majority on most committees – but this was true in previous parliaments. One potential area of concern is that the standing committee on education and health – the two areas of greatest expenditure – has only Labor members. </p>
<p>Clearly, the government is not going to lose any votes on the floor of the house. Overall, though, the structures and operations of parliament look much the same as before.</p>
<h2>Under scrutiny</h2>
<p>But given the huge imbalance of resources and power within the political system, it is important other players keep the government under scrutiny. WA retains a full complement of independent integrity agencies – ombudsman, auditor-general, information commissioner, corruption and crime commissioner. </p>
<p>The auditor-general’s office <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/mcgowan-s-gold-standard-transparency-promise-is-becoming-a-punchline-20220621-p5avkd.html">has been particularly active</a>. It recently produced a <a href="https://audit.wa.gov.au/reports-and-publications/reports/2022-transparency-report-major-projects/">transparency report on the progress of major government projects</a>, arguing the government could and should update parliament more regularly on whether these projects are on time and on budget – and vowing to do this itself, if government refused.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/below-the-line-has-australias-political-landscape-changed-forever-podcast-183730">Below the Line: Has Australia's political landscape changed forever? – podcast</a>
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<p>Another crucial player is the media. WA’s press and broadcasting landscape is dominated by Seven West Media, which owns the state’s only daily newspaper and its most popular TV station. While Mark McGowan received generally positive coverage for his handling of the pandemic, his government has not escaped media criticism, <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/public-health/wa-hospitals-crisis-mistakes-and-oversights-led-to-the-death-of-147-patients-in-202021-c-5203429">on hospitals and health</a> in particular. <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/the-unexpectedly-tiny-covid-19-number-wa-health-didn-t-want-you-to-see-20220510-p5ak4n.html">Other media outlets</a> have also been active in scrutinising government.</p>
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<img alt="WA Liberal leader David Honey" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471264/original/file-20220628-20-zpc59n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Right direction? WA Liberal leader David Honey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tony McDonough/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>A Coalition fightback?</h2>
<p>With the federal election out of the way, what might we look forward to in WA politics? Three things are worth noting. </p>
<p>First, the WA Liberal Party holds its annual conference in July. This will be an important indicator of whether it has done the thinking it needs to turn its fortunes around. </p>
<p>Second, a <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/pub-owner-merome-mem-beard-frontrunner-for-nationals-win-in-north-west--c-7303615">state by-election</a> is due soon after a Nationals MP, Vince Catania, resigned his marginal seat of North-West Central. If Labor were to win, the number of non-government MPs would fall from six to five – a much bigger deal than Labor increasing its representation from 53 to 54. </p>
<p>Intriguingly, if the Liberal Party managed to win North-West Central (which is not completely out of the question, as they have held the seat in the past), then they and the Nationals would each have three MPs and would need to work out who would be the official opposition. </p>
<p>Third, no election is due in WA, state or federal, for almost three years. (The state poll is in March 2025, followed by a likely federal poll two months later.) Can Liberal and National MPs maintain their diligence in parliament? Can their parties form a viable alternative government? And can Labor avoid the malaise that commonly strikes second-term governments in WA, where no party has won a third term since 1989?</p>
<p>It seems inconceivable that Mark McGowan and Labor could lose office in 2025. But can he govern well in the meantime? And can the non-government parties, the integrity watchdogs and the media keep him and his government on their toes? For democracy’s sake, let’s hope so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185873/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Phillimore worked as an adviser to state Labor governments in Western Australia in the 1980s and between 2001 and 2007. He was also a member of a Ministerial Expert Committee on Electoral Reform for the current Western Australian Government, which reported in June 2021.</span></em></p>How does democracy cope with a huge imbalance in parliament?John Phillimore, Executive Director, John Curtin Institute of Public Policy, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1840412022-05-30T04:57:03Z2022-05-30T04:57:03ZNew Nationals leader Littleproud says ‘sensible centre’ is where elections are won<p>Former agriculture minister David Littleproud has ousted Barnaby Joyce to become Nationals leader.</p>
<p>Perin Davey, a senator since 2019, has been elected his deputy. </p>
<p>Littleproud, 45, who was deputy leader, is from Queensland; Davey, 50, is from New South Wales. Bridget McKenzie, from Victoria, remains the party’s senate leader. </p>
<p>The Liberals, as expected, elected Queenslander Peter Dutton, 51, and Sussan Ley, 60, from NSW, as leader and deputy, respectively, after the pair stood unopposed. </p>
<p>Dutton immediately pitched to the suburbs and small business. He told a news conference: “I want our country to support aspiration and reward hard work,” as well as to “take proper care of those Australians who short-term or long-term can’t take care of themselves”.</p>
<p>“Our policies will be squarely aimed at the forgotten Australians, in the suburbs, across regional Australia. </p>
<p>"Under my leadership, the Liberal party will be true to our values, that have seen us win successive elections over the course of the last quarter of a century.” The Liberals would not be “Labor-lite,” Dutton said. </p>
<p>Joyce won back the Nationals leadership last year, and the Nationals held all their seats at the election and gained a senate seat. But Joyce cost the Liberals votes in the “teal” seats, with teal candidates saying moderate Liberal MPs in those seats, whatever their attitudes on climate change, had voted with Joyce. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/littleproud-ousts-joyce-in-nationals-leadership-spill-as-liberals-give-dutton-clear-run-181420">Littleproud ousts Joyce in Nationals leadership spill, as Liberals give Dutton clear run</a>
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<p>Littleproud was prominent in the last term, arguing for the Nationals to embrace the net zero 2050 greenhouse emissions target, which they eventually did. </p>
<p>He entered parliament in 2016, having previously been an agribusiness banker. </p>
<p>Littleproud said after the vote that “a sensible centre is where you win elections”. He said “chasing extremities” would not win. </p>
<p>He hailed having “two bright, articulate” women in the Nationals leadership team. </p>
<h2>Suburbs and small businesses are Dutton priorities</h2>
<p>Dutton stressed he wanted to send “a clear message to those in the suburbs”, and said policies would be targeted to small and micro businesses. But, asked about the “teal” seats, he said, “I am not giving up on any seats”. </p>
<p>While the Liberals would work with big business, Dutton said these days a lot of chief executives were closer to other parties than to the Liberals. He lamented that these business leaders, unlike years ago, were not advocating for tax reform and industrial relations reform. </p>
<p>“I think we are a poorer country for that. I think many of them are probably scared to step up because they are worried of an onslaught by Twitter.</p>
<p>"I hope that we can continue to work with them but I need them to work, to speak up on many policies, not just social policies but economic, not just climate change.” </p>
<p>On China, on which Dutton has taken a strong and uncompromising position in government, he said: “The issue of China under President Xi is the biggest issue our country will face in our lifetimes.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-peter-dutton-faces-his-own-long-march-184042">View from The Hill: Peter Dutton faces his own 'long march'</a>
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<p>Dutton again acknowledged he had made a mistake in boycotting the Rudd government’s apology to Indigenous people and particularly the stolen generations. </p>
<p>“I worked in Townsville. I remember going to many domestic violence instances, particularly involving Indigenous communities, and for me at the time I believed that the apology should be given when the problems were resolved and the problems are not resolved.”</p>
<p>Asked about the proposed Indigenous Voice to Parliament, he said the Liberals would look at what Labor proposed but said he wanted the symbolic policies on Indigenous affairs to be accompanied by practical responses, on issues such as child abuse. </p>
<h2>Support for anti-corruption body</h2>
<p>He also said he favoured an anti-corruption commission: “I believe in transparency.”</p>
<p>Dutton once again said there was more to him than the public image. “I’m not going to change but I want people to see the entire person I am.”</p>
<p>Ley said her message to the women of Australia was: “We hear you. We’re listening. We’re talking. And we are determined to earn back your trust.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Barnaby Joyce rolled by party leadership spill, while Peter Dutton pledges to lead the Liberals with “policies squarely aimed at the forgotten Australians in the suburbs”.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837242022-05-25T06:18:03Z2022-05-25T06:18:03ZEden-Monaro and Gippsland are next-door neighbours: why is one seat safe and the other marginal?<p>The recent federal election saw some close calls but few surprises in the regions, where wild electoral swings are rare. </p>
<p>But we should look closer at two regional seats that straddle the NSW/Victorian border: Eden-Monaro and Gippsland. Despite their geographic proximity, these two seats repeatedly return very different results.</p>
<p>Gippsland shows the risk for Labor of never seriously contesting a “safe” Nationals seat, while the example of Eden-Monaro shows it’s possible for Labor to win regional seats if enough resources and time are put in over the long term.</p>
<h2>A bellwether seat and a ‘quiet’ regional</h2>
<p>The New South Wales seat of Eden-Monaro takes in the far south coast, the Monaro region, and the town of Queanbeyan bordering the ACT.</p>
<p>It’s widely regarded as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.12273">a bellwether seat</a> because it is usually held by whichever party wins government. This election, sitting Labor member <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm">Kristy McBain was returned</a>, with her primary vote up 4.4% and her two-party-preferred vote up by 7.8% to 58.7%.</p>
<p>The neighbouring seat of Gippsland, by contrast, is the typical"quiet" regional, being held by Nationals and their predecessors for more than 100 years. </p>
<p>Gippsland is next to Eden-Monaro on the southern side of the border from Mallacoota and Cann River in the east, through to the Latrobe Valley towns of Traralgon, Morwell and Churchill in the west. At the 2022 election, <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm">long-standing Nationals MP</a> Darren Chester increased his primary vote by 1.3% and two-party-preferred vote by 4.4% to 71.1%.</p>
<p>How can we explain such differences across these neighbouring regional electorates? </p>
<h2>Gippsland: home to a long-standing incumbent</h2>
<p>Chester has been the member for Gippsland since 2008. This level of incumbency gives him a great advantage.</p>
<p>Major parties have increasingly run targeted seat campaigns funnelling resources and volunteers into metropolitan marginals. In other words, marginal city seats get all the love.</p>
<p>This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Safe seats are not contested and the incumbent is easily returned, often with an increased majority. This makes future efforts even less likely.</p>
<p>The last major campaign that saw a federal Labor leader visit the seat of Gippsland was Kevin Rudd’s visit before the Gippsland by-election in June 2008. At that time the seat was still within striking distance for Labor with only a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/gipp.htm">5.9% swing needed</a>.</p>
<h2>Eden-Monaro: a short drive from parliament</h2>
<p>Eden-Monaro by contrast has a high profile and national standing. Parties want to win it, <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/210134/1/b11189010_Rawson_and_Holtzinger.pdf">academics have often studied it</a> and senior politicians are regular visitors.</p>
<p>Proximity to Canberra is a key factor: Eden-Monaro is just a short drive from parliament house.</p>
<p>In the early stages of Anthony Albanese’s leadership, he staked his reputation as a new opposition leader on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/05/labors-kristy-mcbain-claims-victory-in-eden-monaro-byelection">a “captain’s pick” in Eden-Monaro</a> – former Bega Valley Shire Mayor Kristy McBain.</p>
<p>The strategy paid off. McBain won a narrow victory at the July 2020 by-election.</p>
<p>Drilling down into specific booth votes in Eden-Monaro reveals further important differences.</p>
<p>Both Queanbeyan and the Latrobe Valley towns have a bloc of Labor voters. But while Labor wins <em>decisively</em> in most Queanbeyan booths, it <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm">barely outpolls the Nationals</a> in the Valley, and in some cases comes in second. This is likely due to the privatisation and de-industrialisation in the energy sector, which affects jobs in that area.</p>
<p>Both electorates have a small though committed band of Greens who secure 6% to 10% of the vote, and another 10% goes to minor parties such as the United Australia Party and One Nation. But Labor’s capacity to remain competitive in the small rural towns of Eden-Monaro stands out.</p>
<p>Labor polled 43% of the primary vote at <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm">Bombala</a> in the southern portion of Eden-Monaro, beating the main Liberal rival at 38%.</p>
<p>Just two hour’s drive south in Orbost, in the Gippsland electorate, Labor polled less than 16% of the primary vote. The incumbent <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm">Nationals won 58%</a>.</p>
<p>This strong Labor vote in the small towns of Eden-Monaro hint at the continuation of a deeper tradition, which equated rural working people with the Labor interest. </p>
<p>This tradition is alive and well in Eden-Monaro, as former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/02/scott-morrison-abused-by-bushfire-victims-in-nsw-town-of-cobargo">poor 2020 reception</a> in fire-ravaged Cobargo showed. (Incidentally, Cobargo returned a Labor vote of 38%, beating the main Liberal <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm">challenger at 29%</a>.) </p>
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<h2>A tale of two electorates</h2>
<p>So small town Eden-Monaro votes Labor while small town Gippsland votes National – even though they’re so geographically close. Why?</p>
<p>Incumbency in Gippsland has enabled the Nationals to oust Labor as the main party of small business owners and small town working class families. </p>
<p>Fewer resources and fewer high profile visits have shaped a long tradition of Labor underperformance, while the Nationals are buoyed and replenished by regular electoral success. </p>
<p>Chester’s performance in the lower house undoubtedly assists the state-wide Senate vote helping the Coalition secure at least two Senate quotas. </p>
<p>By not seriously contesting the safe regionals, Labor worsens its declining primary vote. </p>
<p>But the example of Eden-Monaro however shows this is not necessarily the case, and that a well resourced campaign over many elections could turn an otherwise safe Nationals seat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Eklund's partner was the Labor candidate for Gippsland at the 2019 federal election, and he worked as a volunteer on her campaign.</span></em></p>Two regional seats that straddle the NSW/Victorian border, Eden-Monaro and Gippsland, are geographically close. But these seats repeatedly return very different election results.Erik Eklund, Professor of History, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707712021-11-03T19:08:36Z2021-11-03T19:08:36ZIt’s time for Anthony Albanese to get angry<p>Remember Scott Morrison’s promise in May 2019: “You vote for me, you’ll get me. You vote for Bill Shorten and you’ll get Bill Shorten.” As well as attacking Shorten, Morrison was also signalling that the rules around the Liberal leadership had changed. Shortly after Morrison came through the middle of Peter Dutton and Malcolm Turnbull to become PM, the federal parliamentary Liberal Party changed the rules for selecting the leader. The person who led the party to electoral victory would lead it to the next election, so was now immune from the challenges and simple majorities that had unseated Tony Abbott and Turnbull.</p>
<p>This was the subtext. The main text was you don’t want Bill. To be sure, we didn’t get Bill, but now it seems that instead of the man himself, we’ve got Barnaby Joyce and the government’s climate policy was outsourced to the Nationals Party room.</p>
<p>It reminds me of 1963 when Arthur Calwell and Gough Whitlam, then the leader and deputy leader of the federal Labor Party, were <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p144911/html/Text/ch14.html?referer=&page=17">photographed</a> after midnight, waiting under a street light outside the Hotel Kingston for the federal executive to determine Labor’s policy on US bases. Before Whitlam reformed the party, policy was made in the organisational wing by the federal executive with no automatic representation of the parliamentary leadership. The <a href="https://halloffame.melbournepressclub.com/article/alan-reid">36 Faceless Men</a>, journalist Alan Reid called them, and the term took off. </p>
<p>When then-Prime Minister Robert Menzies called a snap election a few months later, he pilloried Calwell as a man who took instruction from others, and so, was unfit to be Australia’s prime minister. Today we have a prime minister so lacking in authority and conviction that his emissions reduction policy depended on the outcome of Nationals’ Party meetings on not one but two Sunday afternoons.</p>
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<img alt="Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429214/original/file-20211028-25-1hspl07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison during question time last week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>As I have said many times, the National Party, and the Country Party before it, wields far more power than its electoral support warrants. It did do especially well at the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/2019FederalElection">2019 election</a>, winning around 10% of the vote, with which it won 16 lower house seats. It also provides the deputy prime minister, the deputy speaker, and, with Keith Pitt’s return to Cabinet, five Cabinet ministers. Its vote was about the same as the Greens, who have one lonely voice in the House of Reps. Thanks goodness for the Senate, where the proportional voting system gives the Greens representation that more truly reflects their support in the electorate – they have nine senators to try to hold back the more egregious of the government’s legislation and probe its actions.</p>
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<p>Why won’t Anthony Albanese now say, “You vote for Morrison, you get Barnaby. You vote for me, you get me”? And why won’t he say it over and over and over? Like Abbott did with the brutal retail politics of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/abbott-condemns-illegitimate-carbon-tax-20110914-1k8kf.html">calling the Gillard government’s price on carbon a tax</a>, when, as Peta Credlin later admitted, it wasn’t one at all. “It took Abbott about six months to cut through,” she said, “but when he cut through, Gillard was gone”.</p>
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<p>Albanese desperately needs some cut-through lines, to up his public profile, to simplify the political contest, and to land some blows on Morrison. The Nationals’ grandstanding should be a gift. It plays into two already existing doubts about Morrison: his capacity to lead, and his focus on electoral strategy rather than national problems.</p>
<p>The Nationals, with six Queenslanders, two Victorians and eight from New South Wales, are a party of the eastern states. There are no Nationals members from South Australia, Tasmania or Western Australia. This plays into the suspicion many already have that Morrison is the prime minister for New South Wales, an impression reinforced by his decision to live in Sydney in Kirribili House rather than the Lodge in Canberra. </p>
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<p>Then there are the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-11/fact-check-are-there-54000-jobs-in-thermal-coal-mining/11198150">38,000 or so coal miners</a> we hear so much about, whose jobs are at risk if we move too fast to reduce our emissions. About as many people have already <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/covid-job-cuts-at-universities-prompting-fears-for-future/100447960">lost their jobs in universities</a> over the past two years because the COVID pandemic stopped international students, and the government did nothing as the university sector shrank. The most obvious explanation for this difference is that people in universities are less likely to vote for the Coalition than the coal miners, with little consideration of their contributions to the national interest.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429210/original/file-20211028-18-151cusu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Doing Politics: Writing on Public Life by Text Publishing.</span>
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</figure>
<p>So, Labor and Albanese have plenty of opportunity to channel anger towards Morrison. Why are they so reluctant? I have been thinking a lot about anger in politics lately. In the book of essays I have just published, <a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/doing-politics-writing-on-public-life">Doing Politics: Writing on Public Life</a>, I pay tribute to the profound influence of Alan Davies and Graham Little from the University of Melbourne Politics Department on my thinking about politics. Davies and Little looked to psychoanalysis to help understand politics. Both wrote about emotions in public life, their risks and opportunities and the way they come in sets: fear, anger and paranoia; envy and resentment; pathos and compassion; guilt and denial; hope, possibility and delusion. The book includes a series of essays on our most recent leaders, and all draw on their wisdom.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-wicked-problem-how-to-win-back-queensland-154951">Labor's wicked problem: how to win back Queensland</a>
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</em>
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<p>Since John Howard’s time as prime minister, the Liberals have specialised in the politics of fear and anger, fear of being over-run by refugees, of others getting what you deserve, and of change; and anger at anyone who opposed them. And they have succeeded, again and again, at turning fear and anger against Labor, such as at the last election when they whipped up fear of Labor’s policies on franking credits, negative gearing, electric cars and an ambitious climate target. It was negative campaigning and it worked enough to get the government back across the line.</p>
<p>Labor is not shy of negative campaigning, as in the 2016 “Mediscare” campaign, but it is more uneasy with anger. At present, Albanese seems mired in the politics of pathos, with the oft-repeated story of his childhood upbringing by a single mum in council housing, and his unfulfillable promise that there will be no one left behind. What he needs is some anger and to direct it at Morrison; to play the man like Morrison did against Shorten.</p>
<p>I can understand why he might be reluctant to do this. For many of us, anger is not a comfortable emotion. But anger has big advantages for a campaigning politician - its energy and its illusion of conviction – especially if it can be condensed into cut-through slogans and images. The emotions are not skilled workers, as the fictional poet Ern Malley so wisely observed, especially when they are abroad in public life. They need to be handled with black and white gloves to be effective. Morrison the electoral strategist knows this. Albanese needs to learn, and fast. If he cuts through, Morrison is gone.</p>
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<p><em>A collection of Judith Brett’s essays, Doing Politics: Writing on Public Life, went on sale last week through <a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/doing-politics-writing-on-public-life">Text Publishing</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Brett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anger has big advantages for a campaigning politician. Scott Morrison, the electoral strategist, knows this. Albanese needs to learn, and fast.Judith Brett, Emeritus Professor of Politics, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1696322021-10-12T19:11:35Z2021-10-12T19:11:35ZThe net-zero bandwagon is gathering steam, and resistant MPs are about to be run over<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425849/original/file-20211012-26-18b837y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5246%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be moving towards securing Coalition agreement for a net-zero emissions by 2050. It comes weeks out from the crucial COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, where Australia’s record on global climate action will be heavily scrutinised.</p>
<p>Horse-trading between the Liberals and Nationals is under way, and the government is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/industries-to-be-shielded-in-federal-bid-for-net-zero-20211012-p58zcj.html">reportedly</a> set to reveal its climate targets and technology roadmap early next week. </p>
<p>But first, Morrison must secure majority support from the National Party. A few vocal Nationals figures, including Matt Canavan, Keith Pitt and George Christensen, have sought to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/26/i-havent-even-begun-to-fight-matt-canavan-to-defy-nationals-party-room-if-majority-back-net-zero">block</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/25/australian-jobs-more-important-than-net-zero-nationals-minister-says">moderate</a> a net-zero commitment. </p>
<p>Some of their concerns are valid – regional Australia will shoulder a big burden in the transition to a low-emissions economy. But the tides of international and domestic affairs are turning. Most government MPs have accepted the inevitable, and the issue will not break the bonds of an enduring Coalition.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1441902606356414468"}"></div></p>
<h2>Net-zero and the Nationals</h2>
<p>The Nationals do have legitimate economic and political reasons for being concerned about a net-zero target. </p>
<p>First, a move away from coal and gas would lead to job losses in regional areas. And the federal government’s policy playbook to support rural and remote areas is extremely thin, relying heavily on spillover economic benefits from agricultural development and mining. </p>
<p>This means the Nationals, as the self-proclaimed regional party, have few economic levers to pull. Retaining mining investment is both politically and, at regional and local scales, economically <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6407349.pdf">important</a>. </p>
<p>Second, policy mechanisms such as a price on carbon or caps on greenhouse gas emissions could add to costs for people living in regions, and to agricultural industries such as beef production, where reducing emissions will <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-clock-is-ticking-on-net-zero-and-australias-farmers-must-not-get-a-free-pass-168474">not be</a> straightforward or cheap. </p>
<p>Third, the Nationals’ opposition is somewhat in line with the party’s ideology and electoral positioning. It has historically pitched itself as a defender of national economic interests and “traditional” industries such as farming and mining. </p>
<p>At the same time, the party has long opposed, on economic and social grounds, post-materialist influences such as deep Green environmentalism. </p>
<p>Finally, the Nationals, along with the Liberals, have successfully used climate change policies to wedge the Labor Party and paint it as part of a supposed Labor-Green axis. This tactic worked well in central Queensland in the last federal election.</p>
<p>So for some Nats, conceding to net-zero might be seen as an ideological capitulation and yet more evidence of their ineffective efforts to stand up for the bush. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nationals-signing-up-to-net-zero-should-be-a-no-brainer-instead-theyre-holding-australia-to-ransom-168845">The Nationals signing up to net-zero should be a no-brainer. Instead, they're holding Australia to ransom</a>
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</em>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="three people stand in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nationals capitulation on net-zero may be seen as evidence they are not standing up for farmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Our Cow/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Net-zero gathers (renewable) steam</h2>
<p>The problem for the Nationals resistance movement, however, is that it’s becoming increasingly isolated. </p>
<p>Both the Biden administration in Washington and the United Kingdom government are <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-overstates-morrisons-climate-ambition-as-australia-uk-trade-agreement-reached-162790">pressuring</a> Australia to commit to the 2050 net-zero target.</p>
<p>And several jurisdictions, such as the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/australian-exporters-pay-the-price-with-european-carbon-tax/100379998">European Union</a>, are considering or planning <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/15/what-does-the-eus-carbon-tariff-proposal-mean-for-australia">carbon tariffs</a> on imports from nations without strong climate policies.</p>
<p>In the context of recent shifts in the international policy landscape, railing against such tariffs looks anachronistic. </p>
<p>As National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) chief executive Tony Mahar <a href="https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/7348275/eu-carbon-tariff-avoids-ag-for-now-but-sector-cant-be-naive/">said</a> earlier this year, “as an industry dependent on exporting, Australian agriculture must be ready to adjust to a more carbon-conscious trading future”. </p>
<p>Domestically, state governments, including those with Coalition incumbents, have <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan">shifted</a> to net-zero-type targets. So too have important lobby groups, <a href="https://nff.org.au/media-release/nff-calls-for-net-carbon-zero-by-2050/">such as</a> the NFF and the <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/achieving_net_zero_with_more_jobs_and_stronger_regions">Business Council of Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, moderates in the federal Liberal Party are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/28/scott-morrison-meets-with-liberal-mps-worried-coalition-will-appease-nationals-on-net-zero.">gearing up</a> to argue for a net-zero plan and against large compensation for particular industries. </p>
<p>All this leaves the Nationals’ resistance movement rather short of influential allies.</p>
<p>Opponents could, of course, roll out the implied threat of breaking the Coalition. But moderate Nationals have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-28/climate-change-net-zero-2050-coalition-divide-nationals/100496264.">hosed down</a> suggestions a net-zero target is a make-or-break issue for the Coalition partners. And historically, Coalition breaks – especially in government – are extremely rare.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-reasons-why-the-morrison-government-needs-a-net-zero-target-not-a-flimsy-plan-169015">5 reasons why the Morrison government needs a net-zero target, not a flimsy plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men ion masks in front of flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison is under pressure to adopt stronger climate policies, including from US President Joe Biden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sealing the deal</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, even Nationals in favour of a net-zero target want assurances for the regions and agricultural industries. </p>
<p>An obvious and relatively easy policy response is to ensure new <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-05-31/renewable-energy-zone-plan-targets-nsw-regional-businesses/12299652">renewable energy projects</a> in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-10/qld-palaszczuk-andrew-forrest-hydrogen-gladstone/100527670">regions</a> deliver local economic benefits, such as through favourable purchasing and employment strategies or even dividend sharing.</p>
<p>Second is to ensure these and other projects continue to drive down electricity costs. This is especially important for energy-intensive agricultural production such as irrigated crop and pasture production. Where possible, regional landholders could receive income from local energy ventures as hosts of, or even partners in, projects. </p>
<p>Third, funding for land-based carbon storage could be expanded. </p>
<p>Australian landholders have made a huge contribution to national emissions offsets over decades, largely through vegetation management which draws carbon from the atmosphere and stores it in plants and soil. Such management has largely been the result of state government regulation preventing land clearing and farmers have historically received little direct benefit in return.</p>
<p>The federal government is now <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/climatechange/cfi">contributing funding</a> for landholders who create land-based carbon sinks under the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>. But the resulting projects have caused local concerns and the carbon storage outcomes are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">uncertain</a>. </p>
<p>So expanding such schemes will not be easy. It must be done in a way that meets integrity standards, and without alienating local people. </p>
<p>The Morrison government is understandably averse to direct carbon pricing, given the toxic climate politics of the last decade. It’s instead focused on low-emissions <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/technology-investment-roadmap-first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020">technological solutions</a>. </p>
<p>This might lead to new low-emisisons technologies for the regions, such as conversion to renewable energy and innovative transport systems. But there’s no timeline yet for when such technology will materialise.</p>
<p>The Nationals are right to demand detail in the climate policy deal. But the net-zero bandwagon cannot be stopped – at best, the Nationals must settle for perhaps quite modest compensation for their constituents.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-green-its-degraded-landscapes-for-just-6-of-what-we-spend-on-defence-168807">Australia could 'green' its degraded landscapes for just 6% of what we spend on defence</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nationals’ concerns about the effects on regional Australia are legitimate, but greater forces in favour of a net-zero emissions target will likely push the policy over the line.Geoff Cockfield, Honorary Professor in Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1639882021-07-11T20:14:24Z2021-07-11T20:14:24ZAre the Nationals now the party for mining, not farming? If so, Barnaby Joyce must tread carefully<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410528/original/file-20210709-13-44i0wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5505%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Perry Duffin/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The return of Barnaby Joyce to the federal National Party’s top job has highlighted tensions within, and dilemmas for, the broader party – particularly on climate change policy and coal.</p>
<p>Joyce and some of his Queensland colleagues unashamedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/29/barnaby-joyce-says-australia-needs-low-emission-coal-stations-and-backs-nuclear-power">support the coal industry</a>, and the federal party appears <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-even-if-scott-morrison-gets-the-nationals-on-board-hold-the-applause-163074">broadly opposed</a> to Australia adopting a target of net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>These are positions at odds with progressive quarters of the party, particularly in Victoria. The divisions came to a head earlier this month when, in response to Joyce’s ascension, Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh and deputy Steph Ryan <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/victorian-nationals-sought-disaffiliation-from-federal-party-over-barnaby-joyce/news-story/cf2e614aa1f979907a1b6ae28f4e75e8">sought to split</a> the state party from its federal counterpart.</p>
<p>The move was unsuccessful. But Walsh later called for the party to have “a constructive discussion about the transition of our energy supplies and how we reduce our impact on the Earth we live on”. </p>
<p>So are the federal Nationals the latter-day party for mining, not farming? If so, what does this mean for the party’s political positioning and prospects? To address this question, we must examine the Nationals’ evolution over the past century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="surprised man seated, other man standing holding piece of coal" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410523/original/file-20210709-13-1m57y32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barnaby Joyce’s support for coal has troubled the Victorian Nationals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coal as nation-builder</h2>
<p>The National Party began federally in 1920 as the Australian Country Party, and traditionally represented farmers and rural communities. But over time, the party evolved to represent and advocate for the broader interests of regional Australia. </p>
<p>Economic nationalism has underpinned the party, especially since the 1950s. Under this ethos, farming, mining and basic manufacturing were considered key foundations for nation-building – a view which persists today. As the Nationals’ Senator Matt Canavan wrote in an <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/barnaby-will-help-restore-law-of-made-in-australia/news-story/8dd04fb3d1937eb11eb72df2506df472">opinion piece</a> last month:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The restoration of Barnaby Joyce as deputy prime minister restores a strong advocate for the economically nationalist, Australia-first approach that has always served us well. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Most Nationals candidates come from rural small businesses, finance organisations and social and community services – though many have farming roots or some involvement in farming activities. </p>
<p>Rural communities are under pressure from dwindling populations and limited employment opportunities. In that sense, the mining industry is an important source of jobs and economic activity in Australia’s regions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-even-if-scott-morrison-gets-the-nationals-on-board-hold-the-applause-163074">Net zero by 2050? Even if Scott Morrison gets the Nationals on board, hold the applause</a>
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</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal pile at mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410533/original/file-20210709-13-j1ginm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mining is an important source of jobs in regional Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal party’s vociferous support for mining and opposition to emissions reduction is, in part, values signalling. For many in the Nationals, coal helped build the nation, while climate change action and renewable energy represent a moral and material threat.</p>
<p>Regional differences also exist. Nationals’ support for mining is particularly strong in Queensland – traditionally a mining-dependent state where resource investment has long been considered a means of rural development. At both the Queensland and federal levels, strong political connections exist between mining companies and the Liberal-National Party. </p>
<p>In another sign of the federal party’s contemporary priorities, Joyce’s close party ally Matt Canavan recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2021/jul/03/matt-canavan-on-leadership-and-why-he-doesnt-want-a-net-zero-policy-australian-politics-podcast">told the Guardian</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>About 5% of our voters are farmers. It’s about 2% of the overall population. So 95% of our voters don’t farm, aren’t farmers or don’t own farmland.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Nationals’ apparent support for mining above farming exists partly because because they can get away with it. In many regions, farming and mining co-exist in reasonable harmony, both sectors enjoying the benefits of strong regional centres. </p>
<p>In some cases conflict does arise, <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/farmer-turns-against-santos-coal-seam-gas-project-20140523-iupn0">such as</a> with gas exploration in cropping country. But in those regions, disenfranchised Nationals voters typically direct their votes to micro-parties rather than Labor or the Greens. These votes often flow back to the Nationals via <a href="https://theconversation.com/minor-parties-perform-well-in-federal-election-and-reconfirm-the-power-of-preference-deals-117192">preferences</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man in hard hat" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410529/original/file-20210709-15-rw9ncl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-coal Nationals senator Matt Canavan has downplayed the importance of farmers to the party’s constituency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A questionable strategy</h2>
<p>The federal Nationals’ pro-mining, anti-renewables stance may not, however, benefit the party over the long term.</p>
<p>First, mining is at best a very patchy contributor to rural development. Overall, net employment in agriculture is still higher <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/industry-overview/australian-industry/latest-release">than for mining</a> and is more evenly distributed across the regions. Mining investment can ebb and flow quickly with commodity prices and the stage of project development, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10371656.2018.1443725?journalCode=rrso20">leaving communities</a> with falling real estate values and an <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10371656.2018.1443725?journalCode=rrso20">altered</a> social fabric. </p>
<p>The anti-emissions control stance could also trigger conflict with major farm organisations. Many, <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/run-down-by-the-green-tariff-train-20210214-p572f6">such as</a> the National Farmers Federation and Meat and Livestock Association, <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/the-net-zero-dilemma-for-australian-farmers-20210212-p571ul">want to see</a> a strong national emissions reduction plan, under which landowners can benefit financially by participating in land carbon schemes. </p>
<p>Many farmers are also interested in renewable energy as both a source of income and cheaper power. Renewables projects are proliferating in regional areas and even Joyce has been known to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/barnaby-gets-a-spade-and-starts-digging-for-white-rock-solar-farm-67949">turn up in a hard hat</a> to get behind them. So we can look forward to some interesting management of that cognitive dissonance.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-need-land-and-lots-of-it-that-poses-tricky-questions-for-regional-australia-156031">Renewables need land – and lots of it. That poses tricky questions for regional Australia</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cows and wind turbines in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410531/original/file-20210709-25-18j0jsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many farmers are interested in hosting renewables projects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trouble ahead</h2>
<p>Following Joyce’s return to the federal party leadership, Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh said he’s had “a very frank discussion with him about the policy differences on climate change”.</p>
<p>But discontent on climate policy is not confined to Victoria. Across the party, Young Nationals organisations are generally <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-nationals-reject-federal-party-policy-to-back-emissions-trading-20170410-gvi0n1.html">far more open</a> to climate action than their older party colleagues. </p>
<p>And the hardline mining stance will not help the Nationals regain or even retain seats in areas such as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015-greens-take-ballina-after-27year-nationals-reign-20150329-1ma6kh.html">Ballina</a> in NSW, where demographic changes have eroded the party’s support.</p>
<p>But the biggest test of the Nationals’ farming-vs-mining rift is perhaps yet to come. The European Union and other jurisdictions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-point-complaining-about-it-australia-will-face-carbon-levies-unless-it-changes-course-155200">considering imposing</a> tariffs on goods – including agricultural products – from nations such as Australia which lack strong emissions reduction policies.</p>
<p>While helping drive global climate action, such moves would partly be motivated by economic nationalism - boosting the international competitiveness of industries in the country/s applying the tariff. The sight of the Nationals impotently arguing for free trade in this instance will be fascinating political theatre.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-point-protesting-australia-faces-carbon-levies-unless-it-changes-course-155200">No point protesting, Australia faces carbon levies unless it changes course</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Barnaby Joyce’s pro-mining stance is at odds with the more progressive quarters of the party, and puts the Nationals in a difficult position on global carbon tariffs.Geoff Cockfield, Professor of Government and Economics, and Deputy Dean, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1630742021-06-22T20:05:01Z2021-06-22T20:05:01ZNet zero by 2050? Even if Scott Morrison gets the Nationals on board, hold the applause<p>Resurrected Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce is back in the saddle, facing backwards. His determination to prevent the Morrison government from adopting a target of net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 will again delay the renovation of Australia’s climate policy.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ leadership spill <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-sets-up-climate-change-policy-clash-after-reclaiming-leadership-20210621-p582ze.html">reportedly followed</a> growing disquiet about Morrison’s slow pivot towards a net-zero by 2050 goal. Many Nationals MPs have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/17/nationals-will-oppose-net-zero-emissions-target-resources-minister-signals">indicated</a> they don’t back the target, and Joyce says he will be “guided by the party room” on the issue.</p>
<p>If Morrison eventually gets the 2050 target past Joyce and passed by the joint party room, there will be little cause for celebration. In fact, the achievement will be as exciting as watching a vaudeville magician wrench an old rabbit out of a moth-eaten hat. </p>
<p>Australia’s premiers will yawn in unison. Every state and territory in the country has already adopted this target, or better. Yet at the end of the day, net-zero by 2050 is a risky and inadequate goal, especially for wealthy nations such as Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men and a woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407597/original/file-20210622-14-164uwba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Barnaby Joyce, centre, says the Nationals’ stance on a zero-emissions target will be guided by the party room.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A target is nothing without a plan to get there</h2>
<p>All G7 states and 11 G20 members are aiming for net-zero emissions by mid-century. These include <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">the United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/japan-will-become-carbon-neutral-by-2050-pm-pledges">Japan</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7779596/climate-change-emissions-targets-canada-2030-trudeau/">Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/germany-raise-2030-co2-emissions-reduction-target-65-spiegel-2021-05-05/">Germany</a>, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/france-switzerland-present-roadmaps-to-reach-net-zero-by-2050/">France</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-koreas-green-new-deal-shows-the-world-what-a-smart-economic-recovery-looks-like-145032">Republic of Korea</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eni-results-idUSKBN2AJ1O1">Italy</a>, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-eu-law-idUSKBN2751GI">European Union</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-10/argentina-is-torn-between-its-shale-dream-and-climate-goals">Argentina</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">United States</a>. China, the world’s largest emitter, <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">has committed to</a> net-zero by 2060.</p>
<p>However, as international environment law expert Professor Lavanya Rajamani <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/2015-paris-agreement-climate-change-pollution-7101448/">has argued</a>, net-zero targets should not automatically be applauded. First, they should be checked for their credibility, accountability and fairness. On these measures, a net-zero by 2050 target for Australia is nothing to cheer.</p>
<p>Why? First, because a target is nothing without an effective strategy to get there – something Australia is sorely lacking.</p>
<p>To successfully achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, tough short- and medium-term targets are essential to staying on track. Victoria, for example, has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-02/victorian-government-targets-or-agriculture-transport-interim/100110140">pledged</a> to halve carbon emissions by 2030. The UK is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">aiming for</a> a 78% reduction by 2035, reflecting its confidence in existing and emerging technologies.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">'Failure is not an option': after a lost decade on climate action, the 2020s offer one last chance</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Morrison government’s 2030 target – a 26-28% reduction below 2005 emissions levels - is not credible. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/28/australia-needs-to-cut-emissions-by-at-least-50-by-2030-to-meet-paris-goals-experts-say">Experts say</a> a 2030 target of between 50% and 74% is needed to put Australia in line with keeping warming below 2°C and 1.5°C respectively – the goals of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>So what about Australia’s actual emissions-reduction measures? The Morrison government’s <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/investment-new-energy-technologies">technology-first</a> approach <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dose-of-reality-morrison-governments-new-1-9-billion-techno-fix-for-climate-change-is-a-small-step-146341">falls short</a> of what’s needed to drive quick and deep emissions cuts. </p>
<p>Reaching net-zero requires substantial government funding and tax relief for investors in renewable technologies. Morrison’s announcement of an additional A$540 million for new technologies is insufficient and partly misdirected.</p>
<p>For instance, the government is investing in carbon capture and storage. As others <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dose-of-reality-morrison-governments-new-1-9-billion-techno-fix-for-climate-change-is-a-small-step-146341">have argued</a>, the technology is increasingly commercially unviable and encourages further fossil fuel use. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the government is failing to assist the uptake of proven technologies such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/top-economists-call-for-budget-measures-to-speed-the-switch-to-electric-cars-162883">electric vehicles</a>, despite transport being <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/6686d48f-3f9c-448d-a1b7-7e410fe4f376/files/nggi-quarterly-update-mar-2019.pdf">Australia’s third-worst</a> sector for emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Close up of words on car reading 'zero emissions'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407599/original/file-20210622-21-1xpvm21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government has failed to invest in electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2050 goal is risky business</h2>
<p>Even if Australia adopted a goal of net-zero by 2050, and measures to get there comfortably, the target is risky.</p>
<p>In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> on the potentially catastrophic impacts of exceeding 1.5°C global warming. In the same report it established the idea of “net zero” as a global aim, saying achieving the target by 2050 was needed to stay below that warming threshold.</p>
<p>The IPCC described the emissions-reduction pathways required, but failed to emphasise crucial assumptions underlying them. Most depended on “negative emissions” - drawing down carbon from the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Many of those presumed drawdown measures involve land use measures that <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/coproducing-climate-policy-and-negative-emissions-tradeoffs-for-sustainable-landuse/CE06F8A4BB2745389C53EEBE84EB95E7">potentially threaten biodiversity or food security</a>, for instance by requiring farmland and virgin forests to be used for growing “carbon crops”. Others involve geo-engineeering technologies which are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-heres-the-lowdown-on-australias-low-emissions-roadmap-146743">yet to be</a> tested or proven safe at scale. </p>
<p>It’s a risky strategy to avoid rapid, substantial and real emissions cuts in favour of gradual mitigation pathways that rely on such future carbon drawdown. It locks us into <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05938-3">technologies which are problematic</a> or don’t yet exist. To limit these risks, Australia must aim for net-zero well before 2050, predominantly via actual emissions cuts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-without-new-fossil-fuel-projects-global-warming-will-still-exceed-1-5-but-renewables-might-make-it-possible-162591">Even without new fossil fuel projects, global warming will still exceed 1.5℃. But renewables might make it possible</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="bleached coral" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407600/original/file-20210622-26-c81839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The IPCC warned of catastrophic climate impacts, such as coral bleaching.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A matter of fairness</h2>
<p>The matter of equity is another where policymakers have been inattentive to nuance. The undifferentiated call for net-zero by 2050 shifts the burden and costs of effort onto poorer countries. No wonder so many developed countries have been happy to adopt it!</p>
<p>The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement each require developed countries to cut emissions faster than poorer countries – and to assist poorer countries in their efforts. This recognises the fact developed nations are largely responsible for global warming, and have the wealth and technological capacities to act. </p>
<p>Developing nations such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as those in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Pacific and Africa, are mostly below global average wealth. Forcing them to meet the same net-zero timeframe as rich nations is patently unfair. </p>
<p>And for the international community to achieve even the 2050 goal, China – a global emissions giant – must increase its ambition to at least net-zero by 2050 (rather than its current 2060 timeframe).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smoggy city skyline" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407617/original/file-20210622-22-4m2w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China must accelerate its climate efforts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Morrison’s bind</h2>
<p>It’s clear that rich developed countries must both aim for net-zero emissions well before 2050, and provide climate finance to assist poorer countries to do the same. Anything less will almost certainly guarantee Earth overshoots an already risky target.</p>
<p>Australia, given its wealth and technological means, must certainly aim for net-zero well before 2050. A report in April this year <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/net-zero-emissions-plummet-decade/">suggested</a> reaching net-zero in 2035, to make a “fair and achievable contribution to the global task” and given our vulnerability to extreme weather.</p>
<p>The issue of climate finance was <a href="https://www.g7uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Carbis-Bay-G7-Summit-Communique-PDF-430KB-25-pages-3.pdf">on the agenda</a> at this month’s G7 summit, but critics say the final commitment – meeting an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/g7-leaders-commit-increasing-climate-finance-contributions-2021-06-12/">overdue spending pledge</a> of US$100 billion a year – is inadequate considering the urgency of the task.</p>
<p>Just months out from a crucial UN climate summit in Glasgow in November, Scott Morrison is caught in a bind. On the global stage, he’s under increasing pressure to commit to a net-zero emissions target or face <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eu-is-considering-carbon-tariffs-on-australian-exports-is-that-legal-156946">carbon tariffs</a>. At home, he’s forced to assuage a minor coalition partner now led by a man who will <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/new-coal-power-station-and-an-emissions-fight-qld-promises-that-got-joyce-back-in/news-story/a4a2886742331ac9c7705b2d9f7d3be7">reportedly</a> push for a new coal-fired power station, and for agriculture – and potentially mining – to be exempt from emissions targets.</p>
<p>The looming general election will test whether rural voters are prepared to endure Joyce’s climate antics or will swing to savvy independents. And it remains to be seen whether urban voters will tolerate a prime minister whose transactional politics leaves Australia increasingly exposed at home and abroad.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163074/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At the end of the day, net-zero by 2050 is a risky and inadequate goal, especially for wealthy nations such as Australia.Peter Christoff, Senior Research Fellow and Associate Professor, Melbourne Climate Futures initiative, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1558972021-02-23T11:45:51Z2021-02-23T11:45:51ZView from The Hill: Craig Kelly’s defection leaves government with razor-thin majority<p>Craig Kelly’s jump to the crossbench leaves Scott Morrison’s government looking like the man who suddenly finds his jacket feels a little thin in the wind.</p>
<p>It still has a majority, but not a comfortable one.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s block of 76 in a House of Representatives of 151 members means it does not possess a working majority on the floor. A vote would be tied if Labor and all crossbenchers opposed it.</p>
<p>Its majority of one includes the Speaker, Tony Smith. He has a casting vote in the event of a tie – one that he would exercise in a procedurally conservative manner, to preserve the status quo.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s position is not like that of late 2018, when it fell into minority government as things unravelled after the overthrow of Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>But losing a number makes descent into minority more of a possibility – if some unforeseen event took out another government MP. That would put it at greater risk of losing votes.</p>
<p>Kelly has said that, beyond supporting the government on confidence and supply, he will back it on the program it took to the election.</p>
<p>This gives him room to play up on a few measures, if he feels inclined, for example on any legislation relating to climate.</p>
<p>On the other hand, he would be unlikely to find parliamentary bedfellows on his pet issues.</p>
<p>Given the makeup of the crossbench, the government can be confident of its numbers, even if they’ve become a little more precarious.</p>
<p>Rebel Nationals would love to recruit Kelly to their party, to get an extra vote in the cause of removing Michael McCormack from the leadership. But Kelly sees himself as an “independent Liberal”; anyway, he’d have nothing to gain by joining the Nationals (which of course would restore the Coalition numbers).</p>
<p>The government is determined to portray Kelly’s departure in the most positive light it can find. “Good riddance”, is the official informal line.</p>
<p>With his passion for spruiking ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, unproven treatments for COVID, Kelly has been deeply irritating for Morrison. The Prime Minister recently called him into his office for a dressing down, after Kelly’s spectacular corridor clash with Tanya Plibersek.</p>
<p>He wanted Kelly to shut up. Instead Kelly, the zealot with the contrarian cause, is now more than ever on a mission to promote those controversial drugs. </p>
<p>This is the second defector to catch Morrison on the hop.</p>
<p>In 2018 word came of Julia Banks’ desertion when she was on her feet in the House of Representatives. Morrison was giving a news conference at the time.</p>
<p>Kelly on Tuesday only showed his hand in the party room. He said he wanted to tell his colleagues first. But perhaps there was a touch of tit for tat after that bawling out.</p>
<p>For Kelly’s part, he had the choice of an attention-grabbing exit from the Liberal party, or being dispatched from his seat by the preselectors, who would have ensured he’d not be the Liberal candidate at the election.</p>
<p>What harm can Kelly do the government do now?</p>
<p>He can cast an anti government vote now and then.</p>
<p>He can shout his views on COVID treatments and climate change. But he’s done that often enough. Arguably, at least in the mainstream outlets, when he is not talking as a rebel Liberal, what he says on COVID will get less attention. He’ll just be one crossbench voice.</p>
<p>He is signalling he is likely to run as an independent at the election. If he does, he wouldn’t poll well and it’s doubtful his presence would do much harm to the Liberals in his Sydney seat of Hughes.</p>
<p>In what’s a painful fortnight for the government, an element of the Kelly story fed into its problems with handling allegations of rape and sexual misconduct.</p>
<p>A staffer in Kelly’s office, Frank Zumbo, is being investigated over claims of inappropriate behaviour in the workplace (which he denies).</p>
<p>When this matter was raised with Morrison’s office last year by a local reporter via email, it did not answer her.</p>
<p>Morrison on Tuesday said he had spoken to Kelly about both this matter and the staffer’s performance. But Kelly has kept the man on.</p>
<p>The government had a significant win on Tuesday when Facebook agreed, in a deal involving the Coalition making some changes to its legislation, to lift its ban on republishing news on its Australian site.</p>
<p>Any other time, that would have made it a very good day. </p>
<p><strong>WEDNESDAY UPDATE</strong></p>
<p>Defence Minister Linda Reynolds, who has been under sustained pressure over her 2019 handling of the Brittany Higgins’ rape allegation, entered hospital in Canberra on Wednesday morning. </p>
<p>A statement from her office said she “will take a period of medical leave.</p>
<p>"This follows advice from her cardiologist relating to a pre-existing medical condition.” The statement said the hospitalisation was “a precautionary measure”.</p>
<p>Reynolds had been due to address the National Press Club on Wednesday, the same day Higgins is due to lodge her formal complaint with police against the alleged perpetrator of the assault against her, which she says took place in Reynolds’ office in March 2019.</p>
<p>Higgins tweeted her best wishes to Reynolds.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1364359719188537344"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With Craig Kelly’s jump to the crossbench, the government has an uncomfortable majority.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460362020-09-11T09:21:24Z2020-09-11T09:21:24ZView from The Hill: Barilaro keeps Nationals in the tent; koalas stay in limbo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357661/original/file-20200911-22-1rli008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Several premiers presently find themselves at war with the federal government. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, by contrast, suddenly found herself locked in battle with her deputy premier, John Barilaro, and his bolshie band of Nationals.</p>
<p>The junior partner in the NSW coalition chose this week to pull on a stoush over a new regime the state government launched months ago to protect koalas, which have been devastated and displaced by fires and drought.</p>
<p>That a row over koalas could shake the Berejiklian government to its core during a pandemic is startling, at the least. The Nationals justify this by saying they’d long been told their concerns would be considered, and they hadn’t been.</p>
<p>They insist they’re not anti-koala — they’d like to see the population doubled, they say — but claim the new regime is too burdensome, including by extending the definition of core koala habitat and increasing the number of koala tree species.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nsw-koala-wars-showed-one-thing-the-nationals-appear-ill-equipped-to-help-rural-australia-146000">The NSW koala wars showed one thing: the Nationals appear ill-equipped to help rural Australia</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The Nationals are under pressure from farmers and, at a political level, from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, which is always nipping at their heels.</p>
<p>Within the Nationals, pressure built with first one, then two, and several more MPs in revolt — and quickly the whole party. Efforts to get a special meeting to deal with the koala issue were unsuccessful – the premier had other things on her plate.</p>
<p>By Thursday, the Nationals had resolved that until the koala row was addressed they’d no longer attend joint party room or parliamentary leadership meetings and would abstain from voting on government bills. (They reserved the right to support bills and motions important to regional areas.)</p>
<p>“This effectively puts the entire party on the crossbench,” the party said in a statement.</p>
<p>Barilaro insisted the Nationals could take this stand while their ministers remained in cabinet.</p>
<p>This would have made them sort of “virtual” crossbenchers – a very strange notion indeed under the Westminster system.</p>
<p>A frustrated Berejiklian issued an ultimatum. “It is not possible to be the deputy premier or a minister of the Crown and sit on the crossbench,” she said in a statement.</p>
<p>She said she’d told Barilaro that he and his Nationals cabinet colleagues had until 9am Friday “to indicate to me whether they wish to remain in my Cabinet or else sit on the crossbench”.</p>
<p>By Friday morning, Barilaro had stepped his party back from the brink. After a meeting with Berejiklian, the two leaders said in the briefest of statements the coalition remained “in place”, as did “cabinet conventions and processes”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-have-long-valued-stable-leadership-and-being-strong-coalition-partners-this-shouldnt-change-now-131554">Nationals have long valued stable leadership and being strong Coalition partners – this shouldn't change now</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile, koalas were to be dealt with at a coming cabinet meeting. The extraordinary upheaval may be over for now, but it leaves scars, questions, uncertainty and tension.</p>
<p>Most obviously, the substantive issue is still unresolved. If the Nationals don’t get their way on changes to the koala regime, there could easily be another explosion. If they do, many Liberals will be angry.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ constituency will be behind the party’s stand. But for numerous Liberal supporters, compromise on as emotive an issue as koalas will be an electoral no-no.</p>
<p>This week’s events have again brought into question Barilaro’s judgement.</p>
<p>He was caught between the strong feelings within his party and the need to maintain the coalition. He laid himself open to criticism of firstly overreaching and then failing to carry through his threat.</p>
<p>This is against the background of his behaviour before the Eden-Monaro byelection, when he as good as said he would run for the seat and then said he wouldn’t.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eden-monaro-opens-wounds-in-nationals-with-barilaro-attack-on-mccormack-137907">Eden-Monaro opens wounds in Nationals, with Barilaro attack on McCormack</a>
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<p>Even some Nationals shake their heads, while the Liberals resent what Berejiklian has to put up with.</p>
<p>At one stage on Thursday, Barilaro asked his parliamentary party if they thought someone else would be better to lead them. The idea was dismissed. Nevertheless, the past few days have fanned doubts about his style of leadership.</p>
<p>Most serious in the immediate term, the trust between Berejiklian and Barilaro has been further eroded, after taking a knock from his conduct over Eden-Monaro. The NSW coalition remains intact, but no one can miss the crack that has been repaired by superglue. It is not as robust as it once was.</p>
<p>And Berejiklian has less patience with her volatile partner than she used to have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The NSW coalition remains intact, but no one can miss the crack that has been repaired by superglue.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460002020-09-11T04:16:37Z2020-09-11T04:16:37ZThe NSW koala wars showed one thing: the Nationals appear ill-equipped to help rural Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357590/original/file-20200911-24-1i3f4bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C0%2C5265%2C3507&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">JoelCarrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This morning, NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro capitulated on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-11/nsw-government-john-barilaro-backs-down-koala-crossbench-threat/12652108">a threat</a> to tear apart the state government over new koala protections. For now, the government remains intact. However the Nats’ campaign to loosen environmental protections that affect farmers will continue to destabilise the Coalition in the longer term.</p>
<p>The dramatic events of the past 24 hours have cast doubt on whether such a blustering, short-sighted political party has what it takes to lead rural Australia. The NSW Nationals have been entrusted with <a href="https://www.nswnationals.org.au/state-team/">seven</a> ministerial portfolios – from agriculture to trade and early childhood. But they were willing to throw it away over the fine print of a single planning policy.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt many people in the bush, including farmers, are doing it tough. And many farmers feel environmental protections are hurting their livelihood. </p>
<p>But it’s in everyone’s interests – including farmers’ – to ensure our environment stays healthy. And the extreme summer bushfires shone new light on how close we are to losing vulnerable species such as koalas. It’s hard to understand what the National Party thought it had to gain from this damaging display of brinkmanship.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A koala in a tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357593/original/file-20200911-16-ksf8e8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Nationals objected to changes to koala protections that curtail their land management.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A long history of tension</h2>
<p>Nationals MPs had been demanding the government change a state environmental planning policy that aims to make it easier to identify and protect koala habitat. The policy changed the way koala habitat is identified by <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Policy-and-Legislation/Environment-and-Heritage/Koala-Habitat-Protection-SEPP">increasing the number</a> of protected tree species from ten to 65.</p>
<p>Barilaro <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/koala-war-silence-is-complicity-and-i-will-not-sit-by-quietly-as-my-own-government-kills-regional-nsw-20200910-p55uf9.html">branded the change</a> a “land lockup policy”. He described the number of protected tree species as “excessive” and said farmers would be forced to conduct time-consuming and expensive surveys before any new development or farming on their land.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farmers-murder-and-the-media-getting-to-the-bottom-of-the-city-country-divide-125735">Farmers, murder and the media: getting to the bottom of the city-country divide</a>
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<hr>
<p>NSW Liberal Planning Minister Rob Stokes <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/my-colleague-barilaro-s-koala-claims-are-a-pack-of-mistruths-stokes-fires-back-20200910-p55ufo.html?fbclid=IwAR2EFTJnHmp8ewxnE8cdPCl2ZBoj0pX6DVEtDXogfgKKb20qz8F5W9M9Vto%20%22%22">rejected</a> Barilaro’s claims that farmers can’t build a feed shed or a driveway without a koala study, and that noxious weeds are listed as core koala habitat. </p>
<p>Development pressures on the NSW north coast have likely fuelled this latest stoush. There, a move to different, more lucrative crops such as <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/4571166/blueberries-blue-hits-north-coast/">blueberries</a> and the demand by “sea-changers” for residential real estate is <a href="https://www.agrifutures.com.au/product/best-practice-land-use-planning/">prompting</a> agricultural land to be sub-divided and sold. The new koala rules might slow this down.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301203/original/file-20191112-178480-1uqmrp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Murdered compliance officer Glen Turner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied by family</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Land clearing policy has always been a flashpoint for conflict in regional and rural NSW. Tensions tragically came to a head in 2014 when environment compliance officer Glen Turner was <a href="https://theconversation.com/farmers-murder-and-the-media-getting-to-the-bottom-of-the-city-country-divide-125735">murdered</a> by a disgruntled landholder found guilty of breaking native vegetation laws. In the days afterwards, rural politicians said Turner’s death was “brought about by bad legislation” on land clearing.</p>
<p>Since then the NSW government has relaxed native vegetation laws. As a result, land clearing in the state has risen almost 60%, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/02/land-clearing-new-south-wales-rises-60-per-cent-since-laws-relaxed">according to</a> government data.</p>
<p>And in August last year the government announced it would no longer investigate or prosecute those who cleared land illegally under the old laws. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301059/original/file-20191111-194669-1ov25x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chain used for land clearing is dragged over a pile of burning wood on a rural property.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The city-bush divide</h2>
<p>The issue of environmental protection plays into a historical city-country divide that has long been an easy wedge for rural politicians.</p>
<p>This tension came to the fore over the koalas issue. Clarence MP Chris Gulaptis said this week:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I was elected to Parliament to represent my community and I get really annoyed when city-centric people preach to us, especially when people in Sydney have done nothing for their koalas. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But it’s worth remembering northwest NSW has some of the highest land clearing rates in the world. It has been identified as a <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/our_work/our_focus/forests_practice/forest_publications_news_and_reports/living_forests_report/">deforestation hotspot</a>, on par with Brazil and the palm oil plantations of Indonesia.</p>
<p>And environmental degradation is not just a concern for city people. Biodiversity underpins our agricultural systems; insects, birds and soil microbes all contribute to food security and regional prosperity.</p>
<p>Separately and just as importantly, in all this talk of what regional communities want, the National Party is virtually silent on the views of Indigenous Australians.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tractor plowing a field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353774/original/file-20200820-24-9hyexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biodiversity underpins farming systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Farmers have bigger problems than koalas</h2>
<p>Barilaro and his MPs suggested the amendment was the final “nail in the coffin” of rural and regional Australia. But the fact is, the rapidly dwindling NSW koala population already has one foot in the grave.</p>
<p>A recent NSW inquiry <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/30/koalas-will-be-driven-to-extinction-by-2050-in-nsw-major-inquiry-finds">predicted</a> the extinction of the species by 2050 unless protections and rehabilitation efforts were radically ramped up. And a World Wildlife Fund report <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/wwf-koala-loss-report-finds-71pc-decline-after-fires/12624938">this week</a> found a 71% decline in koala numbers across bushfire-affected areas of northern NSW.</p>
<p>Koala protections are far from being the biggest threats to rural prosperity. Escalating tensions with China have led to <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/china-slaps-new-ban-on-aussie-beef-20200828-p55q5x">recent bans on barley and beef</a>. The rural community has been <a href="https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6910324/nationals-out-of-touch-on-climate-change-as-farmers-bear-its-brunt/?fbclid=IwAR2EFTJnHmp8ewxnE8cdPCl2ZBoj0pX6DVEtDXogfgKKb20qz8F5W9M9Vto">hit hard</a> by the extreme drought, and there is growing discontent with the mismanagement of water in the Murray Darling Basin. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">Australia's farmers want more climate action – and they’re starting in their own (huge) backyards</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>What’s more, recent expansion of gas exploration and development in the state’s northwest has left locals worried about <a href="https://www.roybutler.com.au/narrabri_gas_project_independent_planning_commission_submission?fbclid=IwAR1Re30JDsrbK6tDJ1TmCwx8iog7kTgsUSjhgujtHF6QVfpxc8GmZG0cXLQ">water</a> contamination and over-extraction.</p>
<p>There is no doubt life in regional and rural Australia is different to the life lived in the city. In some areas there are poor internet connections, worse roads and great distances to travel for basic health services.</p>
<p>But these problems, like land clearing, are complex. And it seems the NSW Nationals are ill-equipped to deal with these challenges. This week’s display suggests the party only deals in wedge politics and blunt solutions – and with that approach, we all stand to lose.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146000/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tanya M Howard receives funding from The Bushfires and Natural Hazards CRC. She is affiliated with Sustainable Living Armidale. </span></em></p>It’s in everyone’s interests to ensure our environment stays healthy – including farmers. What did the Nats think they’d gain from this destructive game of brinkmanship?Tanya M Howard, Senior Research Fellow, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1314562020-02-16T18:55:57Z2020-02-16T18:55:57ZQueensland’s election year shadowed by federal in-fighting, scandals and voter fatigue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315380/original/file-20200213-11000-1giiqgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can Annastacia Palaszczuk win another term as Queensland premier?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Glenn Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With cries of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Quexit</a>!” still echoing faintly in our ears, Queenslanders head towards a state election in October.</p>
<p>For many, interest lies in whether federal Labor’s poor showing in Queensland at last year’s national election was a portent for the state Labor government. While there’s plenty at stake locally, recent National Party disunity and federal Coalition turmoil could also have a pronounced influence on Queensland’s election year.</p>
<h2>Second term blues</h2>
<p>Interestingly, <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/yougov-poll-finds-premier-opposition-leader-deadlocked-in-mediocrity/news-story/8bbd121b6854e3541a105ff41c813914">latest polling figures</a> put Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government and the Liberal National Party opposition neck and neck. After a turbulent last six months for Palaszczuk, questions are being raised about a lack of “cut-through” by LNP leader Deb Frecklington. Underlying it all is apparently growing <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/02/07/yougov-galaxy-50-50-queensland/">voter indifference to both</a>. Their leaderships will undergo a litmus test at a coming <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/currumbin-by-election-2020/">Gold Coast by-election</a> on March 28.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Palaszczuk’s government has had to contend with a sluggish domestic economy and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/budget-faces-blow-from-gst-royalties-20191211-p53j2z">diminished state finances</a>. This is on top of persistently high unemployment, which is most severe in the regions and for young people. Add recent natural disasters, tourism downturns, <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/queensland-goes-backwards-on-infrastructure-20190910-p52prq">infrastructure project delays</a> and contentious <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/13/queensland-anti-protest-laws-inherently-disproportionate-un-human-rights-experts-say">protest laws</a>, and the outlook for the second-term government isn’t altogether rosy.</p>
<p>Compounding these troubles, Palaszczuk’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-15/qld-annastacia-palaszczuk-backbench-rumbling-over-jackie-trad/11966636">popularity has fallen</a>, mainly due to <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/jackie-trad-referred-to-parliament-s-ethics-committee-20191122-p53dat.html">transparency questions</a> arising over Deputy Premier Jackie Trad’s property dealings and perceived conflicts of interest. The “integrity issue”, on which the premier campaigned coming to office, will provide fodder for the opposition and a critical media as the election nears.</p>
<p>Simultaneously, Frecklington has endured her own “summer to forget”, much like the prime minister. Missteps ranged from scandals involving <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/03/young-liberal-national-party-leader-suspended-over-video-denigrating-indigenous-culture">Young LNP members</a>, to the opposition leader’s <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/low-act-frecklington-cops-flak-for-shot-at-premier-s-appearance-20191229-p53nfj.html">clumsy attempts</a> to belittle the premier over her attire. Most damaging was the sudden resignation of long-time Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey. Ahead of a March by-election, Stuckey has criticised her party’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/jann-stuckey-resigns-amid-bullying-claims/11892244">“bullying” culture</a> and overbearing party executive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315387/original/file-20200213-11023-1ldx1wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Like the prime minister, Queensland Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington has had a summer to forget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jono Searle</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Anything less than a convincing by-election result will heighten pressure on Frecklington’s leadership, with <a href="https://inqld.com.au/politics/2020/02/13/what-becomes-of-unity-when-both-sides-get-the-wobbles/">whispers emerging</a> of a desire for change at the top. A messy leadership swap would again expose an <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-liberals-and-nationals-have-long-had-an-uneasy-cohabitation-and-now-should-consider-divorce-88165">uneasy relationship</a> between the LNP’s constituent Nationals and Liberals, and repeat the party’s tendency to <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/qld-election-2020-lnp-could-still-lose-in-repeat-of-2006/news-story/5f4e80967b50fe49c6ec39801f456b94">electorally self-implode</a>.</p>
<h2>Nationals’ unhelpful rumbles</h2>
<p>Similar fractiousness is writ large in Canberra, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-michael-mccormacks-battle-to-hold-off-a-second-shot-from-joyces-locker-131164">ongoing fallout</a> from Barnaby Joyce’s failed attempt to take back the National Party leadership. Nationals MPs angered by leader Michael McCormack’s handling of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-bridget-mckenzie-falls-but-for-the-lesser-of-her-political-sins-131011">Bridget McKenzie scandal</a> – including a number from Queensland – again want to more forcefully exert their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/04/barnaby-joyce-is-right-the-nationals-should-speak-up-but-not-to-serve-his-ambition">party’s identity</a>, separate from the Liberals.</p>
<p>While not all Queensland Nationals supported Joyce’s move, the resignations of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/matt-canavan-supports-barnaby-joyce-nationals-leadership-spill/11926058">Matt Canavan</a> from the government front bench and now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-10/queensland-mp-llew-o27brien-quits-nationals-party-room/11948492">Llew O’Brien</a> from the Nationals party room underscore the regional restlessness in their ranks. With speculation of a “breakaway” <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-leader-michael-mccormack-in-surf-peace-mission-to-heal-partyroom-rifts/news-story/fd338c9988589c2fe9dd363131f80c7e">LNP faction</a> splitting in the Nationals party room, “identity politics” could cause a rift within Queensland’s Liberal National Party. Scott Morrison’s “how good is Queensland?” election-night shout-out might come back to haunt him.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-can-only-look-on-as-nationals-wicked-problem-damages-his-government-131780">Grattan on Friday: Morrison can only look on as Nationals 'wicked problem' damages his government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s easy to view this as another case of the LNP’s Queensland-centric focus <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/02/14/paula-matthewson-coalition-split/">disrupting the Coalition relationship</a>. This episode bears the hallmarks of last year’s move by “rebel” Queensland Nationals to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/11/liberals-attack-queensland-nationals-push-for-coal-fired-power-stations">pressure party colleagues</a> and Liberal partners on government support for new coal-fired power stations in their state.</p>
<p>Beyond the damage done to Coalition relations, this “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/barnaby-joyce-says-coal-is-about-affordable-power-for-poor-australians">coal posturing</a>” could lead to a similar schism in state LNP ranks, with MPs and candidates campaigning in regional mining seats potentially at loggerheads with city-based colleagues over <a href="https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/war-of-words-threatens-to-tear-coalition-apart/3940839/">energy generation</a>. Not for the first time, federal Coalition MPs might <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland-election-2017/entsch-questions-lnp-merger-i-think-its-a-discussion-that-needs-to-be-had-20171127-p4yx9e.html">wonder at the wisdom</a> of forming the merged LNP in Queensland over a decade ago.</p>
<h2>How minors (and miners) play important roles</h2>
<p>Amid Coalition MPs’ fragmented views on coal and climate change, Pauline Hanson has <a href="https://www.senatorhanson.com.au/2020/02/10/coal-confusion-splits-shaky-coalition-one-nation-strong-on-fossil-fuels/">called for the Senate</a> to “recognise the value of new coal-fired power stations” in Queensland. Characteristically, Hanson is playing the stirrer <em>and</em> opportunist nipping at, especially, the Nationals’ heels.</p>
<p>Her One Nation party, perennial bogeyman for the major parties but so often an election underachiever, holds a single seat in Queensland’s 93-member parliament. Expect further attempts to <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/pauline-hanson-changes-political-tactics-ahead-of-state-election/news-story/c2861cb5baeabd2ae6118696d9bfd51e">exploit frailties</a> in both Labor’s and the LNP’s standings in regional and outer metropolitan electorates.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party will also look to capitalise on <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coal-is-kryptonite-across-both-major-parties-20200206-p53y7x">regional disaffection</a> with the major parties, although likely confined to a handful of northern seats. Still, if the party maintains or adds to its current three state MPs, it could stake a claim for regional Queensland in potential minority government negotiations.</p>
<p>In a similar vein, the Greens will look to take advantage of policy ambiguity in Labor’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/13/labor-denies-breakaway-pro-coal-group-points-to-division-on-climate-policy">“balancing act”</a> around support for coal-mining projects and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/22/queensland-labor-to-change-its-official-platform-in-coal-friendly-revamp">jobs in the regions</a>. The ALP federal election review identified mixed messaging on these issues as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/07/labor-election-review-strategy-adaptability-bill-shorten-defeat">major campaign pitfall</a>. The Greens will hope to add to their sole state MP at Labor’s expense in “anti-Adani” <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/adani-in-path-of-more-than-one-endangered-species-in-queensland/news-story/7ceb29fd7f0b00a79e3f95f52ad38bec">inner Brisbane</a>.</p>
<p>Apathy towards both major parties, similar to that witnessed at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-finally-has-a-government-but-the-path-ahead-for-both-major-parties-looks-rocky-87847">2017 election</a>, seems to pervade Queensland’s politics at the moment. “Status quo” may ultimately remain the order of the day. </p>
<p>However, last year’s federal election performance puts the state Labor government’s two-seat majority on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/election-results-labor-in-damage-control-across-queensland/11130366">shaky ground</a>. Once again, a hung parliament can’t be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/26/queensland-election-result-shows-australia-is-done-with-two-party-contests">ruled out</a>.</p>
<h2>Set your watches</h2>
<p>Refreshingly, there’s no element of surprise to the timing of this year’s state election, with Queensland’s elections now fixed to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-05/four-year-fixed-parliamentary-term-referendum-declared-yes-ecq/7299386">final Saturday in October</a>. From this election, also, Queensland’s government will enjoy the “luxury” of a four-year term in which to implement its agenda.</p>
<p>With just over eight months until polling day and plenty at stake for competing parties, the contest is well and truly on, with implications for federal politics as well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>With a state election due in October, both Labor and the LNP in Queensland are on shaky ground.Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1315542020-02-13T02:47:39Z2020-02-13T02:47:39ZNationals have long valued stable leadership and being strong Coalition partners – this shouldn’t change now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315131/original/file-20200213-41678-1d3mkdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://nationals.org.au/register-centenary-event/">National Party turned 100 on January 22</a>, but celebrations were overshadowed by leadership turbulence, with Barnaby Joyce challenging Michael McCormack for the leadership. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/03/matt-canavan-quits-cabinet-to-back-barnaby-joyce-for-national-party-leadership">failed move to restore Joyce</a> as leader of the party was driven, according to Joyce and some supporters, by the “need” to have a determined and independent voice within the Coalition. As Joyce put it,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>we have to speak with our own voice, we have to drive agendas.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Nationals are a distinct party, but working within the Coalition has provided them with considerable policy influence throughout history. And Coalitions have worked best in the past with adroit leadership and by resolving conflicts out of the public eye.</p>
<p>McCormack may grow into an adroit leader but he is at risk of being set aside because of ambition and impatience, as well as a hazy view of the history and place of the party. </p>
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<h2>Early electoral successes for the party</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/country-party">Australian Country Party</a>, the precursor to the modern National Party, was integral to establishment of non-Labor politics in Australia. It started in 1920 with representation from all states and immediate electoral impact. </p>
<p>The party’s share of lower house seats peaked at the 1937 federal election, and from then until the 1980s, it was <a href="http://elections.uwa.edu.au/">routinely able to win</a> about 10% of the vote and 15% of lower house seats. </p>
<p>The golden age for the Country Party was from 1949-83 – a time marked by solid parliamentary representation, the routine holding of key portfolios and strong influence on agricultural and rural policies. </p>
<p>The success of this period was not just about electoral performance. During the Coalition’s many years in government, the partner parties were also ideologically close on issues that mattered to the Country Party, which helped minimise open conflict. </p>
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<p>These shared ideologies are no longer as strong as they once were, in part due to the increasing influence of market liberalism within the Liberal Party in the 1980s and ‘90s.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the Nationals are now an even smaller parliamentary party in 2020 than in 1980, holding only <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDefault-24310.htm">10.6% of lower house seats</a>. </p>
<p>Given tensions over policy, a need to maintain a rural identity and the rise of populist parties such as One Nation and The Shooters, Farmers and Fishers Party, the Nationals are now facing a challenge: how to express their independence, while remaining good partners in the Coalition. </p>
<h2>Why good leadership and stable Coalitions have mattered</h2>
<p>Throughout the history of the Country and National parties, it’s been critical for their leaders to maintain a fine balancing act. </p>
<p>It didn’t start out this way. The Country Party’s first leader, William McWilliams, wanted pure independence for the party, as was expected by the various farm organisations that supported “country” candidates in the 1920s. </p>
<p>However, his successor, Earle Page, set the model for future federal Coalition arrangements. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1055&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1055&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315144/original/file-20200213-41673-kocg37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1055&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Earle Page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Library of Australia</span></span>
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<p>After the 1922 federal election, Country Party members fired some warning shots in their tactical voting on legislation and procedures. This led to the offer of a Coalition with the Nationalists, who even sacrificed a leader to allow this to happen. The Country Party secured key portfolios and Page formed a strong working relationship with the new Nationalists leader, Prime Minister Stanley Bruce. </p>
<p>This also ushered in a long period of relative stability in the leadership ranks of the Country Party. For 63 years, the party had only five leaders. And four of those served for more than 12 years each: Page (1921-39), Artie Fadden (1941-58), John McEwen (1958-71) and Doug Anthony (1971-84).</p>
<p>Each of these leaders had a strong working relationship with their Liberal counterparts in the Coalition. Fadden and McEwen both worked well with Robert Menzies, while Anthony had a close partnership with Malcolm Fraser.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-robert-menzies-and-the-birth-of-the-liberal-national-coalition-74533">Australian politics explainer: Robert Menzies and the birth of the Liberal-National coalition</a>
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<p>Coalition stability was challenged briefly in 1939 when Page <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/56024444">made an intemperate personal attack</a> on Menzies, then leader of the United Australia Party. Page declared in the House that Menzies was unfit to lead government because he had not served in the first world war.</p>
<p>Page refused to work with Menzies, jeopardising the Coalition and leading to Page’s resignation as party leader. The internal turmoil contributed to Labor’s 1941 election win. </p>
<h2>National leaders standing firm with Coalition partners</h2>
<p>Since 1983, no Nationals leader has made it to 10 years at the top, though until the attempted Joyce resurrection, there had been only one direct leadership challenge. </p>
<p>Anthony’s successor, Ian Sinclair (1984-89) was one of the Country/National Party strongmen of the Fraser-Anthony era and an ardent coalitionist. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315160/original/file-20200213-41661-1xhz3nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ian Sinclair with his portrait when it was unveiled in parliament in 2001.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
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<p>However, he was politically wounded by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/issues-that-swung-elections-the-dramatic-and-inglorious-fall-of-joh-bjelke-petersen-115141">“Joh for Canberra” push</a>, an attempt by Queensland National Party premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen to become prime minister. This resulted in a Coalition split and the loss of the 1988 federal election, leading Charles Blunt to challenge for and win the National leadership. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/issues-that-swung-elections-the-dramatic-and-inglorious-fall-of-joh-bjelke-petersen-115141">Issues that swung elections: the dramatic and inglorious fall of Joh Bjelke-Petersen</a>
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<p>Most of the other National leaders in recent times, from Tim Fischer to Warren Truss, were strong coalitionists and worked to keep policy and personal conflict behind closed doors. </p>
<p>Even when the Nats felt pressure from their supporters for adhering to Coalition policies, their leaders held firm to maintain stability in government. Fischer, for example, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-22/tim-fischer-man-behind-gun-reform-australia-port-arthur-massacre/11439954">stood shoulder to shoulder with John Howard on gun laws</a>, despite the blow-back he received in many rural areas.</p>
<p>Prior to the 2019 election, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/30/do-what-it-takes-nationals-leader-defends-preference-deals-with-one-nation">McCormack also supported Coalition preferencing</a> of minor parties like One Nation over Labor on ballot papers and attacked the Greens and <a href="https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6014603/weve-got-a-plan-to-lock-up-militant-activists-says-deputy-pm/?cs=7">animal activists in true agrarian populist style</a>. </p>
<p>The result was good for the Nats: he led the party to unexpectedly retain 16 lower house seats.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315164/original/file-20200213-41673-1p5jzvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Joyce has warned the National Party could cease to exist if more MPs decide to leave.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Why Joyce’s return would be a mistake</h2>
<p>Yet, for Joyce’s supporters, this is still insufficient. Joyce’s time in leadership (2016-18) was a step back from diplomatic coalitionism with a more publicly combative style and demands for shifts in Coalition policy in key areas such as water. </p>
<p>But based on recent history, it is hard to argue the government isn’t paying enough attention to rural policy, given Prime Minister Scott Morrison has frequently been on the Wombat Trail to provide assistance to victims of floods, fires and droughts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-michael-mccormack-moves-on-from-his-near-death-experience-131305">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Michael McCormack moves on from his near-death experience</a>
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<p>Even so, there will be no return to the golden age of rural policy-making in Australia, and the Nationals could be content, though they won’t be, with a long history of punching above their weight.</p>
<p>Coalitions have worked well for the Nationals, in terms of electoral success and policy outcomes, relative to their representation in parliaments. The party should bear this in mind when selecting its leaders, since the fracturing of Coalitions hasn’t served it well in the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nationals would do well to remember they have been able to wield considerable influence in Australian politics, thanks in large part to stable leadership maintaining harmony in the Coalition.Geoff Cockfield, Professor of Government and Economics, and Deputy Dean, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311432020-02-11T06:35:23Z2020-02-11T06:35:23ZBehave as a team, Morrison tells the troops<p>As he battles to put containment lines around the damage the Nationals’ meltdown is causing his government, Scott Morrison has given his party room a pointed lecture about unity.</p>
<p>He has also obtained a letter from Llew O'Brien in which O'Brien reaffirms he will support the government. O'Brien quit the Nationals this week and then won the deputy speakership thanks to the votes of several rebel Nationals.</p>
<p>O'Brien, who remains a member of the Queensland Liberal National Party, sent the letter after meeting Morrison on Monday night.</p>
<p>Before Tuesday’s Coalition meeting, the word was put out for members to show restraint, after recent public airings of differences over coal in particular. </p>
<p>Addressing the party room, Morrison reminded members they were there as a team, declaring the government had a “contract” with the Australian people.</p>
<p>Those walking into the government party room took on serious responsibilities and must do so as a government. The government had gone to the election highlighting local plans and the capabilities of local members but also very much as being members of a team.</p>
<p>“The people endorsed us to be the government,” he said, emphasising the government wasn’t him or any individual. “We are together the government.”</p>
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<p>He said there were many parties in this government: the Liberal party, the National party, the CLP in the Northern Territory, the LNP in Queensland.</p>
<p>But “the contract we have with the Australian people” was to work collectively as their government. The government’s strength was its values, policies and beliefs, which were endorsed at the election.</p>
<p>Acknowledging the difficulties of the last couple of months Morrison told members, when they returned home after the current fortnight sitting, “to focus on the people who put us here”.</p>
<p>Treasurer and deputy Liberal leader Josh Frydenberg invoked John Howard’s adage about being a broad church, when Howard added, “you sometimes have to get the builders in to put in the extra pew on both sides of the aisle to make sure that everybody is accommodated”.</p>
<p>Frydenberg lamented Monday’s “historic moment” in the Australian-Indonesian relationship, with President Joko Widodo visiting Australia and addressing parliament, had been overshadowed in the news bulletins. He also urged MPs to focus on government achievements and policies and future plans “and put internal issues of recent days behind us”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-michael-mccormack-moves-on-from-his-near-death-experience-131305">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Michael McCormack moves on from his near-death experience</a>
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<p>Embattled Nationals leader Michael McCormack, who at the weekend did the Tumbarumba trek which was started by Tim Fischer, said he’d had a call from Fischer’s widow Judy, who’d reflected on how Tim and his team had “stuck firm through difficult periods”. She had said Tim “would want us all to stand firm and together at present”, focused on continuing to deliver the government’s commitments.</p>
<p>O'Brien was present at the meeting but didn’t speak.</p>
<p>Also quiet were the Liberal moderates, who have been recently outspoken on climate change and in opposition to any government support for a new coal-fired power station. </p>
<p>One of the Nationals rebels, former resources minister Matt Canavan, spruiked the advantages of the feasibility study for a Queensland coal-fired power station at Collinsvillle, but his comments were relatively non-combative.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/video-michelle-grattan-on-the-coalition-and-coal-113653">VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the Coalition and coal</a>
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<p>In contrast, earlier Canavan prodded the southern Liberals when on Monday night he hit back with heavy sarcasm against former prime minister Malcolm’s Turnbull’s comment that it was “nuts” to advocate government support to build a coal-fired power station.</p>
<p>Canavan told Sky, “Good luck to Malcolm, he’s welcome to have his views. In fact, I hope that Malcolm keeps expressing those views and that maybe come around the next election he can lead a convoy, let’s say, up to Collinsville, and have a rally up there, and campaign against the coal-fire power station.</p>
<p>"I think that would go down very well, to have Malcolm’s motorcade come up to North Queensland, and tell us all why we shouldn’t be using our own product which we export overseas to create jobs here.”</p>
<p>Asked in question time whether the government would be willing to indemnify a Collinsville coal-fired power station against carbon risk, Morrison said it was committed to the feasibility study but “the matter that the member has raised with me in this question is not currently before the government”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Addressing Tuesday’s Coalition party room, Morrison called for unity, reminding members they were not there as a team, and declaring the government had a “contract” with the Australian people.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1313052020-02-06T06:30:05Z2020-02-06T06:30:05ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Michael McCormack moves on from his near-death experience<p>Starting the year with a leadership spill will be seen by many, especially those hit by the bushfires, as the Nationals being particularly self-indulgent.</p>
<p>Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack admits as much, but notes he wasn’t the initiator of his party’s bad behaviour.</p>
<p>“We should not have been talking about ourselves. This was never of my making or doing. And we should have spent the entire day, not just those sitting hours, but the entire day reflecting on just what has taken place this summer,” he tells the Politics podcast.</p>
<p>McCormack also says he supported Bridget McKenzie “the whole way” through the sports rorts controversy and he again stands by her decision-making. </p>
<p>The National leader defends his new frontbench line up against criticism that it’s short on women, mounts a strong pitch in favour of coal, and rejects claims he’s been too invisible and a weak leader.</p>
<h2>Transcript (edited for clarity)</h2>
<p><strong>Michelle Grattan:</strong> The Nationals have had their worst week since Barnaby Joyce quit as leader in early 2018 amid a scandal around his personal life. </p>
<p>On Sunday, Nationals Deputy Leader Bridget McKenzie was forced to quit cabinet in the sports rorts affair. Two days later, Michael McCormack faced a leadership challenge from Joyce, who argued that the Nationals need a stronger voice. In between, Cabinet Minister Matt Canavan resigned from the frontbench to support Joyce. </p>
<p>Michael McCormack survived the challenge, but his colleagues will be watching carefully whether he can improve his leadership style and most important in their eyes, heighten the party’s profile. The deputy prime minister joined us today to discuss the week’s events and the future. </p>
<p>And please ignore some ringing of the bells during this interview. </p>
<p>Michael McCormack, did you fight for Bridget McKenzie, who in the end, after all, resigned on a technicality of failing to disclose membership of sports organisations, or did you accept the inevitable that she had to quit? </p>
<p><strong>Michael McCormack:</strong> I supported Bridget McKenzie the whole way through Michelle, and I know the sports grants program was a good program, I know the delivery it had, particularly for regional Australia, and Michelle, Bridget had ministerial discretion over these grants. She exercised that ministerial discretion while, of course, taking on board the advice and the recommendations given to her by Sports Australia, of course. And the decisions were all eligible projects. All the decisions she made were eligible. I did support her. I always supported Bridget, she was a very good deputy leader and we got on very, very well. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But you couldn’t save her in the end. You could not save her.</p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> She resigned. She resigned. She understood and accepted the fact that the Wangaratta Clay Target club membership had not been put onto her register of interests and the associations that she had. And unfortunately, as you say, on this technicality, she accepted that Phil Gaetjens, the secretary of PM&C, Prime Minister and Cabinet found that that was an apparent breach of ministerial standards. And so, Bridget accepted that this was the case and resigned. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now your new deputy, David Littleproud the other night suggested that the approach to the sports grants with the party colour coding spreadsheet and the like, was overly partisan. How does that square with your defence, which you’ve just made again, that the distribution was all proper? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Bridget also made clear that she hadn’t seen that document, as I understand. And whilst, yes, there was a colour coded document that somehow found its way to the ABC, the Sports Australia recommendations that Bridget McKenzie received, she made sure that there was 8% more allocations to Labor seats than was first given to her by Sports Australia. </p>
<p>So there was no bias shown against Labor seats. And I know that Anthony Albanese, the Labor leader, Catherine King and others acknowledged and recognised the fact that their electorates received large grants. And in fact, even the opposition leader thanked Senator McKenzie for the allocation of funds to the Grayndler electorate, as I understand. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> How do you expect Australians in the regions who are beset by drought, now by fires, to react to the National Party indulging in a leadership spill on the very day that the parliament was dedicated to the victims and the heroes of these bushfires? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> And it should have been dedicated wholly and solely. We should not have been talking about ourselves. This was never of my making or doing. And we should have spent the entire day, not just those sitting hours, but the entire day reflecting on just what has taken place this summer and for those more than 30 people, for those volunteer firefighters who’ve lost their lives. </p>
<p>We did honour and recognise them in an appropriate way. And the lives that have been lost will be forever remembered as a very dark day in Australia’s history - very dark days. And we should have been focusing on that. We should have been focusing on the drought. We should have been continuing. That’s always been my focus, Michelle, I’ve never swayed from the fact that, yes, the drought is ongoing, and, yes, the bushfires have been very bad. That’s always been my focus. </p>
<p>And indeed, I didn’t ring around every member because I was in important meetings the previous day. We had about seven hours of ministry meetings, including six of cabinet the previous day. And I was very much tied up with that, focusing on why people actually sent me here to do the job for them. To talk about drought, to talk about the fires, and more importantly, to come up with the recovery and relief efforts and the right answers for the Australian people that I serve and that we as National party members serve. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, you’ve said that you don’t think Barnaby Joyce will challenge again. </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, he said he won’t. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> I actually heard you say you also believed in the tooth fairy for a while.</p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> No, I didn’t. Well, the question was put to me, do you still believe in the tooth fairy? And unfortunately, somebody who is listening to that broadcast sent me an email yesterday saying their young child was then questioning as to why the tooth fairy wasn’t real. And for all of the children listening, put your tooth under a little thimble and you might get a coin from the tooth fairy. That’s really important. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But the lesson of history is that once an aspirant challenges, he is likely to challenge again. Are you saying the Nats are different from other parties in this regard? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, I hope we draw a line under this and move on. It’s so important for regional Australia. They need to know that we don’t come here to serve ourselves, we come here to serve them. This sort of thing is, it’s really, it’s about power, it’s about self-indulgence. Look, as Barnaby has said himself, the boil has been lanced. He spoke of the the fact that he was now going to support me and to support the National Party. He needs to keep his word and I’m sure he will keep his word. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> There’s a move to have a rule that would stop random spill attempts. </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Similar to the Labor and Liberal parties. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> You’ve supported this, although Barnaby Joyce opposes it, not surprisingly. Will it go ahead and what’s the process? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, it’s not a matter for me. That’s a matter for the party and the party’s management. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Is that the management committee or… </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> That would be the federal executive.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So what would that process be, that it goes through the federal executive and then the parliamentary party? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I can imagine that would probably be the case, yes.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And do you think… </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I have had nothing to do with this, by the way. It was a proposal brought forward. In fact, it was a proposal raised at a party meeting last year after we won the election, to avoid the intense media speculation as to “will there be a spill, won’t there be a spill?”. And there was a case back in, I think it was about December 2018, around about the last parliamentary sitting week, where in an editorial view written in a Melbourne newspaper, then led rise and belief to the fact that there might have been a spill on because that’s seen as killing season, and no such spurious allegations or suggestions were being raised, but that then, of course, set the rabbits running. And of course then, we had all this intense media speculation and it shouldn’t have been the case then. It should not be the case now. </p>
<p>And, you know, we’ve drawn a line under it. I’ve now put myself up for the leadership three times: in February 2018 when Barnaby Joyce resigned, just after the election when we won in May last year, and again this week. Three times in less than two years. I think that shows that the party supports me. We need to move on. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> The Coalition party room debate on Tuesday showed that the the National party rebels, if we can call them that…</p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I wasn’t in that particular phase of the party room. Scott Morrison and I had gone out to meet the families of the bushfire victims. So I need to place that on the record. I wasn’t in on that discussion in the joint party room.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But you’re obviously across it. And they have shown that they’ll resist hard any nuancing of the government’s climate change policy… </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Which we took to the election. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Would you accept any changes? Would you personally accept any changes to that policy as the government approaches the next election? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, we always look at what we’re doing and how we’re doing it, and of course the mood of the of the country. That’s what we did leading up to the May election last year. And of course, that’s what we do all the time. There’s hopefully a long time between now and the next election. But the policies that we took to the election were endorsed by the people of Australia. And that’s why we retained government. That’s why we make the decisions in cabinet, and that’s why we still hold the treasury benches, because the majority of the Australian people wanted us to continue to govern for and on their behalf. And that’s what we’ll do. We took our climate action policies to the election and the Australian people endorsed us and endorsed those policies. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But as you know, there are different views, especially in different parts of the country. </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Of course. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Do you at least understand the viewpoint of southern Liberals who want more done on climate change, or do you think they’re simply wrong? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I understand their views. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But you don’t agree with those views? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, what we do need is a vibrant resources sector, and I’m really pleased that this morning I announced that Keith Pitt would be the minister for resources in Northern Australia. Of course, adding water to that portfolio as well, but really pleased that he will continue the strong advocacy for our resources sector that Matthew Canavan has championed for so long. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, Keith Pitt is a strong supporter of nuclear power. What’s your attitude to nuclear? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, we had a committee looking at this headed by Ted O'Brien. It, of course, has made various suggestions as to where we need a mix of energy, but it has to have bipartisan support. I mean, to take a partisan approach to something like this to the parliament would be, in all honesty, probably a waste of time, because it would just cause a lot of dissension amongst the parliament, let alone the people of Australia. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, in your reshuffle, which you and prime minister just announced you still only have one woman on your frontbench and she remains in an assistant minister position, yet the election produced several new women in your parliamentary party. Won’t women supporters in the regions be disappointed by this failure to have more women on the frontbench? And is the message that in the Nationals it’s a case of waiting your turn for promotion rather than a principle of merit? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I’m glad that Sam McMahon from the Northern Territory, Susan McDonald from Queensland, Perin Davey from New South Wales, and indeed Anne Webster from the house of representatives seat of Mallee have all taken their place in the parliament. But they’re new members and I’ve only been here a matter of months, and I don’t believe that somebody should be thrust into a ministerial position, let alone cabinet in their first few months as a parliamentarian. They need to serve the communities who sent them here to Canberra to do the job. They need to be able to ensure that they’ve got that grassroots representation right. And look, they’re very, very talented women. </p>
<p>And, of course, Michelle Landry and Bridget McKenzie, they were both in the ministry I put together. I had both of my women in ministerial positions. And to think that the National Party has gone from from two to six women in one election is really important. And I think that says also something about the way I lead the party and that the way that I’ve taken the National Party forward. And I’m sure they will, as you say, get their turn. It has to be merit based, Michelle, I’ve always believed that you should be getting positions on merit. Yes, of course, gender has its place. Yes, of course, geography has its place in ministerial decisions. But you have to be able to do the job. And I’m sure those women who I’ve mentioned and others besides will get their turn eventually. </p>
<p>But it’s a cut and thrust game this politics. And we need the best people serving in the ministerial positions and around that cabinet table. I’m really pleased with the people that have been elected to those ministerial positions for the National Party. And I’m sure that they’ll serve Australia, particularly regional Australia, very well going forward. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> To go back to the resources area, the government before the election promised an inquiry into whether a coal-fired power station was feasible in central Queensland. </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> In Collinsville, yep. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Where is that up to, and do you want to see such a project eventuating if possible? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, I think it’d be good, because what we want to do is make sure that resources rich area in and around Gladstone is well serviced by the energy needs that that wonderful port city is going to require going forward. The port at Gladstone is a magnificent facility. The activity on that port is so important to not just central Queensland, but indeed the state and the nation. So we want to make sure it has the energy needs. The Collinsville project, the proposal, should it tick all the boxes, and I know that it is being put through the rigour at the moment, and sure enough, it’s got to pass that those tests. It’s got to pass those environmental outcomes. Of course, there are state implications as well. </p>
<p>But should it measure up, I think it’d be a great thing for Gladstone. And that’s what it’s aimed at. That’s what it’s based on. We look at the Tomago smelter in the Upper Hunter and around that area of New South Wales. Sometimes it has to load shed and not necessarily have full output because we’ve got too much power being used in New South Wales. We need our industries, we need our factories, to be running at full bore. We need to be able to turn the lights on, we need to be able to keep the wheels of this nation turning. We can only do that if we’ve got reliability in the sector. </p>
<p>Affordability is also important, and that’s why I am a supporter of coal. That’s why I am a supporter of the resource sector. And you just take coal, $62 billion of exports, that pays for a lot of state schools and state hospitals, 55,000 jobs. So many people get up of a morning and put a uniform on and go to work in that sector - they should have the opportunity for a better future to for themselves and their families. And of course, not to mention the two-thirds of our energy needs are coming from coal. So it’s an important part of our resources sector, of our energy needs and our nation. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Well, that’s a pretty strong coal statement. And one of the issues in the… </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Pro-job statement as Michelle, if you don’t mind me just saying that. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> One of the issues in the leadership contest was that the Nationals should be more assertive within the government and within the electorate. Do you take that point and will the party be speaking out more loudly in the future? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I always speak out. My inaugural speech to this place, I said I won’t be silent when I ought to speak. But I think sometimes, too, you need to have those debates behind closed doors. And I’ve had great success in making sure that we’ve got the infrastructure spend that we need for regional Australia. And I’ve had those discussions behind closed doors at times with Malcolm Turnbull, at times with Scott Morrison, and I’ve had some good wins along the way. Just because you might get a blood nose or give a blood nose behind closed doors doesn’t mean to say you need to come out with that trickle still down your nose for yourself or the other person. And the public doesn’t always need to know what goes on when you’re having those important meetings in discussing the needs and wants of regional Australia or indeed Australia in general. </p>
<p>I know it might satisfy the the media and it might grab you a headline, but I would rather get a project up for a regional town or centre, than get a page six headline in a leading daily newspaper in metropolitan Australia. I would prefer that any day of the week. I’ve sent here to get delivery, to get things done. And I know I’ve been doing that. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> You probably find it a bit galling, all the criticism that’s been made of your leadership in the last little while. But do you think you need to be making any changes in the way you do your job? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I think we can always take a look at ourselves and think about how you can do things better. I’m not perfect, never suggested I was. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So what are you working on? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Well, I’m certainly working on making sure that we get even more regional delivery for Australia. More outcomes for regional Australia. What I want to do this year is build dams. I’ve been frustrated at the state’s lack of cooperation in this regard, I’m so pleased that I’ve established the national water grid. I’m working well with New South Wales and Queensland to do just that. Constitutional rules dictate that states play a big part in this. And I think the Australian public wants to see shovels in the ground and bulldozers busy at work on sites where dams have been projected and proposed for too many years now. So I’m looking forward to seeing bulldozers in the ground at Stanthorpe in Queensland. That Emus Swamp dam is going to be, I think, the catalyst for more water infrastructure to come. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And will people be seeing more of you in the regions or do you think…? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> I don’t think you can see any more of me in the regions, I’m there all the time. But I’ll tell you one thing I don’t Michelle, and that’s I don’t always take necessarily banks of cameras with me. Camera crews following along behind. And I think that served me very well. And indeed, moreover, the communities that we try to serve best, during the bushfire season. I went to and visited so many of those evacuation centres, communities where people have lost their homes, their farms, their businesses, and I think they really appreciate the fact that I didn’t have Channel 9 and Channel 7 and every other camera crew trailing along behind for that photo opportunity. </p>
<p>I tell you what, when they asked me for a financial counsellor, when they asked me for a counsellor in general to help with their mental health, when they asked me for a ADF support or a pop up for human services, I was able to ring the minister there and then and provide it, if not within hours, within days. And that’s the sort of delivery that I think regional Australians would much prefer than to see a minister or a deputy prime minister, indeed, who, yes, gets the one line grab on the six o'clock news bulletin, but then doesn’t provide that generator or that counsellor all that support for their communities when they’re at their lowest ebb. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Just finally, before we came for this interview, I did hear a woman on television from somewhere on the South Coast saying that it was very difficult to actually get to the services one needed. The suggestion was that when you didn’t have any resources after going through this bushfire, doing all the things you have to do to get those services is pretty taxing. Do you think that the recovery effort is going smoothly or does the government need to do more so people can cut through bureaucracy and get what they need? </p>
<p><strong>MM:</strong> Everybody’s not going to get what they want right when they want it, and particularly tough for those people who’ve lost everything other than the clothes they’re wearing . And many of them, they have different levels of frustration. I know speaking to some people who’d lost everything, they were still optimistic. And those who perhaps had been only slightly touched by fires are very angry and very frustrated. So the moods differed as to where you went. Yes, we can, and we’ve been doing everything humanly possible to get the assistance to where it’s most needed. But charities need to play a part in being a bit quicker. Yes, governments do, too. And we’ve had a lot of lessons learned from this summer. </p>
<p>And I’m sure that the royal commission and the review that New South Wales is conducting and and and other states will as well, I’m sure we’ll take some some lessons from this summer and put in place measures to ensure that in future there is a more rapid response. But it’s been devastating this summer and of course it’s not over yet. There’s still bushfires raging out of control as we speak. But those volunteer firefighters, people such as Shane Fitzsimmons, the commissioner here in New South Wales, have been magnificent. Andrew Colvin worked day and night heading up the National Bushfire Recovery Agency. The work that he’s done has really helped support those communities. And I want to make special mention of the ADF. When they were sent in 6,500 uniforms on the ground and for my own home city, Wagga Wagga, first unit mobilized, went to Batlow, went to Tumbarumba, made such a difference on the ground, Michelle. </p>
<p>And yes, there will be lessons we learn from this. We need to adapt those measures in time for the next summer fire season, which you and I both know and everybody else does, they’re coming forward earlier. The first fires this summer were in September. Who knows, this year, it may well be August, but we need to be responding quicker, as you say. We’ve learnt lessons from this summer, and let’s just hope we get through the rest of these hotter months without any more tragedy. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Michael McCormack, thank you very much for making time for us on what’s a very busy day for you.</p>
<p><strong>The re-vamped Nationals frontbench line up following changes:</strong> </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Michael McCormack: Leader of the Nationals, Minister for Infrastructure</p></li>
<li><p>David Littleproud: Deputy Leaders on the Nationals, Minister for Agriculture, Minister for Drought and Emergency Management</p></li>
<li><p>Darren Chester: Minister for Veterans Affairs</p></li>
<li><p>Keith Pitt: Minister for Resources, Water and Northern Australia</p></li>
<li><p>Mark Coulton: Minister for Regional Health, Regional Communications and Local Government</p></li>
<li><p>Andrew Gee: Minister for Regional Education, Decentralisation, Minister Assisting the Minister for Trade and Investment</p></li>
<li><p>Michelle Landry: Assistant Minister for Children and Families, Assistant Minister for Northern Australia</p></li>
<li><p>Mr Kevin Hogan MP: Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
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<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<p><strong>Image:</strong></p>
<p>Mick Tsikas/AAP</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131305/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On this podcast, the Nationals leader defends his new frontbench line up against criticism it's short on women, mounts a strong pitch in favour of coal, and rejects claims that he's a weak leader.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311442020-02-04T04:28:01Z2020-02-04T04:28:01ZView from The Hill: We need to see Gaetjens’ report on McKenzie – not least for Gaetjens’ sake<p>When he announced the result of the review by his departmental secretary Phil Gaetjens into Bridget McKenzie’s conduct, Scott Morrison was very clear. Gaetjens’ report was a cabinet document and it wouldn’t be made public.</p>
<p>Morrison just quoted from Gaetjens’ findings. The essence of these are that while the then sports minister had breached the ministerial standards by failing to disclose her membership of gun organisations, her allocation of grants wasn’t politically skewed.</p>
<p>“He said, ‘I find no basis for the suggestion that political considerations were the primary determining factor,’” according to Morrison.</p>
<p>Given this was totally at odds with the Audit Office conclusion of a bias towards marginal and targeted seats, Morrison’s failure to produce the Gaetjens’ report potentially harms the credibility of his most senior public servant.</p>
<p>We need to see the detail of Gaetjens’ argument that the Auditor-General was wrong about the grants being skewed. The report from the Audit Office – a respected, expert and politically neutral body - is very detailed in its information. A senior bureaucrat rejecting it would be expected to have strong, well-argued grounds. How did Gaetjens come to his conclusions on this matter?</p>
<p>Morrison produced a couple of statistics from Gaetjens but they hardly refuted the Audit case. </p>
<p>Gaetjens had looked at the grants rounds “in their entirety”, Morrison noted. But what was his justification for focusing on the entirety, when McKenzie’s allocations became blatantly more political as time went on?</p>
<p>And is there nuance in Gaetjens’ statement that political considerations weren’t the “primary” factor?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remembrance-of-rorts-past-why-the-mckenzie-scandal-might-not-count-for-a-hill-of-beans-130793">Remembrance of rorts past: why the McKenzie scandal might not count for a hill of beans</a>
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<p>Gaetjens’ was an awkward position even before Morrison drew him into the McKenzie imbroglio.</p>
<p>Formerly Morrison’s chief of staff, he was appointed first to head treasury when Morrison was treasurer and then brought over to lead the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.</p>
<p>While contemporary PMs like to have their own man (there has not been a woman) as their department head, Gaetjens was seen, more than most, as a “political” appointment, despite his quite extensive bureaucratic background.</p>
<p>Public servants could (and did) reasonably ask, as leader of the public service, was he likely to stand up for their interests?</p>
<p>They might have had their fears heightened after Morrison chopped off a bunch of senior heads before Christmas.</p>
<p>Because of their personal closeness, Morrison’s asking Gaetjens to investigate McKenzie was inevitably placing the secretary in a very hot place.</p>
<p>It was clear, as the publicity over McKenzie intensified, that whatever Gaetjens found would determine her fate. Morrison had effectively said so.</p>
<p>Further, Gaetjens was investigating against a background of two factors. McKenzie had become a serious political liability. Yet the government had dug in to defend her funding allocations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-need-for-a-proper-federal-icac-with-teeth-122800">The 'sports rorts' affair shows the need for a proper federal ICAC – with teeth</a>
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<p>Former public service commissioner Andrew Podger says Gaetjens “was the wrong person to have asked [to do the inquiry] and I’m surprised by his advice as reported by the PM”.</p>
<p>The timing of Gaetjens’ presentation of the report worsened the optics.</p>
<p>On January 22, Morrison’s office announced he’d asked Gaetjens to look into whether McKenzie had breached ministerial standards.</p>
<p>In the normal course of events one would have thought Gaetjens would have finished his work by, say, the end of the Australia Day long weekend. The material and the minister were at hand; it was not an excessively complicated exercise for someone who’s had plenty of experience of working quickly.</p>
<p>Morrison told his Sunday news conference he received Gaetjens’ report late Saturday night - which did seem an odd time to present a report - inviting speculation of sequenced choreography.</p>
<p>Morrison previously had been able to say he hadn’t received the report. But had he been briefed on it by Gaetjens?</p>
<p>Morrison’s office has produced a list of precedents of when probes into ministerial conduct were not released (a 2019 letter from then departmental secretary Martin Parkinson to the PM on whether former ministers Pyne and Bishop had breached standards was provided to the Senate in response to a Senate order).</p>
<p>But if the PM continues to hide behind cabinet confidentiality and precedent, it won’t just be his skin that sustains bruises, but that of his right hand bureaucrat. And anyway, there is always the prospect of a Senate order, and the certainty of Senate estimates hearings.
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<em>Updated 5 February 2020</em></p>
<h2>Senate tells government to produce Gaetjens report and establishes inquiry into sports affair</h2>
<p>The Senate on Wednesday established an inquiry into the sports rorts affair, and also called on the government to table the Gaetjens advice.</p>
<p>The select committee will have a remit to investigate if Scott Morrison’s office had any role in the grants allocation.</p>
<p>Its terms of reference cover:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>program design and guidelines</p></li>
<li><p>requirements placed on applicants for funding</p></li>
<li><p>management and assessment processes</p></li>
<li><p>adherence to published assessment processes and program criteria</p></li>
<li><p>the role of the offices of the minister, the prime minister and deputy prime minister, and any external parties, in determining which grants would be awarded and who would announce the successful grants.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The committee is to report by March 24. It will have two senators appointed by the government, two selected by the opposition and one from the Greens.</p>
<p>Apart from calling for the Gaetjens report, the Senate has called on the government to produce the advice the Attorney-General, Christian Porter, gave on the legal authority of then sports minister Bridget McKenzie to make decisions on the grants, a colour coded spreadsheet used in the minister’s office, and communications between ministerial offices including the prime minister’s office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the PM continues to hide behind cabinet confidentiality and precedent, it won’t just be his skin that sustains bruises, but that of his right hand bureaucrat.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1310292020-02-03T02:20:24Z2020-02-03T02:20:24ZRichard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack<p>Richard Di Natale has quit the leadership of the Greens, telling his party room on Monday he will also leave the Senate.</p>
<p>Citing in particular family reasons for his shock departure, Di Natale said: “It’s a tough and demanding job and my boys are nine and 11, and I want to be present in their lives. My wife has been a huge support for me in my career and I want to be able to support her in her career.”</p>
<p>He also said he’d had major surgery at the end of last year which “took a bit out of me”.</p>
<p>The shock resignation comes as former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce announced he would challenge Nationals leader Michael McCormack if there was a move for a leadership spill at Tuesday’s party meeting.</p>
<p>The Greens will elect their new leader on Tuesday morning. The party’s sole lower house member, Adam Bandt, immediately announced he would stand.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/greens-on-track-for-stability-rather-than-growth-this-election-116295">Greens on track for stability, rather than growth, this election</a>
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<p>Di Natale was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election and became leader in 2015 after Christine Milne quit. He was hailed as likely to broaden the appeal of the party, potentially picking up more centrist voters and expanding its electoral footprint. That promise has not materialised. </p>
<p>The party maintained its Senate representation of nine in last year’s election, as well as holding Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.</p>
<p>Di Natale said he left the party in good shape, with its second best result at last year’s election. “If we just repeat that result we will elect three new senators and have a shot at the balance of power. I think we’ll do better than that,” he said.</p>
<p>He knew his decision would shock members and supporters but the time was right – for him and for the Greens. “We are bigger than one person.” He did not know what would come next for him, but he would remain involved in Green issues.</p>
<p>He highlighted the Greens’ role in elevating the climate debate. “We Greens put climate action on the agenda at the last election and that was just the beginning. Every election from now on will have the climate emergency front and centre.” </p>
<p>He believed former leaders should not hang around in parliament. He would resign from the Senate when his replacement was chosen. He anticipated that would be about mid-year.</p>
<p>The Nationals are also dealing with leadership changes. Barnaby Joyce, who resigned the party’s leadership amid a furore over his personal life in early 2018 and has long wanted to reclaim the post, told Seven: “If there is a spill then I will put my hand up.” He noted he had always said that if there was a vacancy for the leadership he would stand.</p>
<p>The Nationals have been destabilised by Bridget McKenzie being forced to resign from cabinet for breaching ministerial standards in the sports rorts affair, over failing to declare her memberships of gun organisations. She said on Monday she accepted she should have declared the memberships in a more timely fashion but she did not believe they had constituted a conflict of interest.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remembrance-of-rorts-past-why-the-mckenzie-scandal-might-not-count-for-a-hill-of-beans-130793">Remembrance of rorts past: why the McKenzie scandal might not count for a hill of beans</a>
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<p>The Nationals will elect a new deputy leader to replace McKenzie on Tuesday.</p>
<p>To get a spill for the leader’s position needs only a mover and seconder.</p>
<p>McCormack said: “The fact is there is no vacancy for the leader of the National party. We have a vacancy for the deputy of the National party.”</p>
<p>Victorian National Damian Drum said he did not think Joyce had the numbers, so he did not believe it would come to a vote on McCormack’s position. </p>
<p>Party sources believe McCormack has the support to keep his position, despite considerable internal and external criticism of his performance. But if Joyce ran and got a substantial vote, that would put McCormack under severe pressure. The last thing Scott Morrison wants would be for Joyce to make a comeback.</p>
<p>Water Resources minister David Littleproud, a Queenslander, is considered frontrunner for the deputy leadership. David Gillespie, from NSW, has said he will run for deputy. </p>
<p>Frontbencher Darren Chester ruled himself out as a candidate for deputy. In the reshuffle he is tipped to be returned to cabinet. </p>
<p>Chester told Sky McCormack was “absolutely” safe; “there is no vacancy”, he said, adding the Nationals did not try to roll leaders halfway through a term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Natale’s shock resignation comes as former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce announced he would challenge Nationals leader Michael McCormack if there was a move for a leadership spill on Tuesday.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1271242019-11-15T07:07:29Z2019-11-15T07:07:29ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the government’s response to the bushfires<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Professor Geoff Crisp discusses the the week in politics the government’s response to the bush fires as well as the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action. They also talk about what happened over in the Senate this week - including about the government’s so-called “big stick” legislation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan and Professor Geoff Crisp discuss this week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270162019-11-14T01:40:36Z2019-11-14T01:40:36ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Minister David Littleproud on bushfires, drought, and the Nationals<p>Bushfires continue to burn across NSW and Queensland, the death toll has risen, and the damage to properties, wildlife and the environment is devastating. With conditions predicted to worsen over the summer, climate change has inevitably come into the frame.</p>
<p>The Prime Minister and Opposition leader have said policy arguments should be avoided until the immediate crisis has passed, but many - including former emergency chiefs and some victims - disagree. And Greens and Nationals have had vitriolic exchanges.</p>
<p>The Nationals David Littleproud has ministerial responsibility for water, drought, and natural disaster and emergency management. In this podcast, he says while “the man on the street” can link climate change and the bushfires, but “as elected officials, we’ve got a responsibility” to wait for the right time to have such discussions. </p>
<p>After announcing the government’s drought package last week, Littleproud criticises the states for not stepping up their efforts, and says they have done “three-fifths of bugger all”. </p>
<h2>Transcript (edited for clarity)</h2>
<p><strong>Michelle Grattan:</strong> As horrendous fires burn across New South Wales and Queensland, hard on the heels of the ongoing drought, the debate about climate change has inevitably been fuelled. </p>
<p>Though bushfires have always been part of the Australian landscape, the fire seasons are now starting earlier and lasting longer. </p>
<p>Both government and opposition have said political arguments about climate policy and other issues should be avoided until the crisis is over. Although some of those on the ground, including some who’ve lost their properties, disagree with this.
And the week saw an unedifying exchange of insults break out between Greens and Nationals. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack condemned and I quote, “the ravings of… woke capital city greenies” after the Greens MP Adam Bandt raised climate change. Later, Greens Senator Jordan Steel-John called the coalition and the opposition “arsonists”. </p>
<p>To talk about the fire situation and other issues we have with us today the Nationals David Littleproud, whose portfolio includes responsibility for water, drought and natural disaster and emergency management. </p>
<p>David Littleproud were preparations adequate to meet these fires? For example, in some of the last few years, there have allegedly been shortfalls in hazard reduction in New South Wales. And there are claims, but also denials about whether firefighting resources have been cut in that state. </p>
<p><strong>David Littleproud:</strong> Well, look, we meticulously plan with the states whose primary responsibility is emergency management. Our role is a coordination one and to make sure that we’ve meticulously planned for these types of events because we have to share resources and we’ve proven we’ve been able to do that in this event. </p>
<p>The defence force has been mobilised and we’ve bring brought a number of firefighters from other states into these hot spots in New South Wales and Queensland, and we’ll continue to do that. In terms of fire, in terms of reductions of fuel loads, that’s obviously the remit of the states and that’s their responsibility and the expectation is they deliver on that. </p>
<p>I was fortunate enough to meet one of the rural firefighters, volunteer firefighters on the Sunshine Coast on Sunday. And one of their concerns is, yes, there is an ability to do it, but the window to be able to do it by state governments has been narrowed. And when you’re a volunteer organisation that doesn’t always fit with your lifestyle, you’ve got family commitments and therefore not as much of the fuel load is being burned in the cooler months than what could have been. </p>
<p>So we’ve got to look at this and learn. I don’t think it’s healthy at this time to point the finger about who did what when. I think it’s important that we always learn from these events and we calmly, methodically will get those learnings, and we will act on them. And I think that is a good relationship between federal and state government. Our role to coordinate that after this event, to make sure that there’s better outcomes moving forward. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, while people are concentrated on the moment, of course, nevertheless, it’s important to taken lessons quickly, isn’t it? Because we are at the beginning of a fire season. So there’ll be more problems next week, next month, whenever. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Oh, totally. And that’s why the meticulous planning that took place many months ago has got us to this juncture where we have been prepared and gladly, you know, we proved that last night over Sydney. Sadly and tragically, we’ve had five fatalities. And our job is to try to minimise that to zero. </p>
<p>We all have a role to play. And then I think it’s important that people appreciate this. It’s not just governments, but individuals as well. Disaster planning starts at the home. If you’ve got a disaster plan, then that feeds into your local community, that feeds into your state, that feeds into your nation. And everyone has a responsibility to do that, because a lot of these professional firefighters are volunteers. They’re putting their lives on the line for us. And it’s important as a mark of respect and responsibility of each and every one of us that are in those fire zones to have that plan in place and enact on it as soon as those brave men and women tell you to do so. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So for the rest of this season, can you improve individuals’ planning in any way centrally, as it were? Is there any more help you can give to people getting those fire plans into ready shape? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I think the states have done that and continue to do that. And I think what these events have highlighted is that people have become organically aware of the risk. So they’re already doing that. And the framework has been put in place by the states to make sure that happens. At a national level obviously, we’ve acted even further and the prime minister has made it clear that we’ll mobilise the defence force when required. And when asked, you’ve got to understand, we can’t put them on the front line. That’s a professional’s job. That’s by these volunteers or full time firefighters to undertake. We’d be putting our defence force in harm’s way, but they can do supportive roles like creating fire breaks, being able to support in terms of carting water and and also accommodation and food for our firefighters. So there’s practical measures that the federal government will undertake, and we do that in a coordinated role with the states. And that’s been a good thing. It’s been bipartisan. And so it should be because this is about Australian safety. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, you mentioned that a lot of these firefighters are volunteers. Are we getting enough volunteers? Do you find that it’s hard to recruit them or do the states find that? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I think obviously there’s a challenge. And that’s not just for firefighters. It goes right back to the local footy club. It’s beholden on all of us to be part of the community. And obviously, we’d love to see more volunteers - there’s around 60 or 70,000 strong volunteers across the country that keep us safe. And it’s important we continue to acknowledge that. We resource them properly and support them. And obviously, it’s as I say, governments can’t do it all. It also comes back to each and every one of us. We’re part of a society, we’re part of a community and our involvement and our contribution can be just as significant as that of a federal or state or local government. And I think we as a society need to look at ourselves and say, can we can we contribute? </p>
<p>In fact, I’m keen to become part of my local rural fire group. Unfortunately, I’m part of an auxiliary group. But I mean, there’s a small rural fire branch just to the west of me that I could become of. And I’m very keen to be part of that and be able to contribute in some small way. And I think we should all think about that.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So you haven’t in the past, but you want to- you intend to in the future? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> I’ve lived in urban towns where there’s always been auxillary firefighters. So obviously, I’ve moved to a small property and now the opportunity to look at and be able to contribute in some small way. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, your leader, Michael McCormack, came under some intense criticism for his comment about and I quote, “the ravings of…woke capital city greenies” when Adam Bandt had been talking about climate change, coal and so on. Is this talking to the Nationals base or was it just a burst of bad temper, or what was all that about? And what do you think of it?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, look, I was there when Michael first said this, and it’s a degree of frustration. Michael was seeing firsthand, the emotion, the grief and the anxiety of those people that are in this firing line and those that have lost much from these fires. There is a time and place. And as political leaders, we’ve all got a responsibility to enact that at the right time. And to weaponise an event in the way that some have is not right. And I think there was a frustration by Michael, who had seen that grief, anxiety on those people’s faces, to try and say now’s not the time. Now is not the time. We’re in the here and now. </p>
<p>And in fact, Michael was part of the operational committee that as we as a federal government was working through. He understood the need for us to take action and to have a sideshow created for a political advantage was something that he expressed his frustration. It was about pure emotion of understanding the gravity of what we were going through. </p>
<p>And I don’t begrudge anyone having a belief that’s contrary to mine. But there’s a time and place in which to do that. And fortunately, there’s some that wanted to weaponise this event, which I feel is sad. But, you know, we can always make sure that we create an environment for constructive conversation in this nation. And I think that’s what Michael was getting frustrated by. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Isn’t it inevitable, though, that when we have this sort of catastrophic event, people will immediately want to talk about climate change and other issues related to it? Isn’t that just how things are? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> That’s the beauty of living in democracy. We get to air our views and beliefs. But with that democracy also comes a responsibility of timing. And, you know, when we were actively in the middle of seeing Sydney, one of our largest cities, come under a catastrophic risk of fire, that was not the time. And political leaders in particular have a greater responsibility. I get that the man on the street wants to air that. That’s great. But as political leaders, as elected officials, we have that responsibility to set that standard and and allow, yes, definitely the man on the street to express his views. But as elected officials, we’ve got a responsibility to do that at the right time, in the right environment. In the middle of it, of an event like this, I don’t think was right time to raise it. And the frustration is there that Michael saw, because he saw the pain and the anxiety on these people’s faces firsthand. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> When we get through this immediate event, won’t these things though, intensify the political pressure on the government around the climate change issue over the next year, two years? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, obviously, but that’s the time to have that conversation. But let me say, we are doing our bit. We’re continuing to show that- it’s unrealistic to think that Australia by itself can make the most impact on the globe for climate change. But what we’ve said is let’s lead the world by example. And we’re doing that by signing up to our international commitments and making sure that we’re going to have a trajectory getting there. And that’s what our responsibility as a good global citizen is, is to say, yes, we’re going to lead by example. We’re going to get on with the job. But anyone that has an unrealistic expectation that we can solve it by ourselves is kidding themselves. But it’s important that we lead the world, and that’s what we’re showing. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> I don’t think one can argue we’re leading the world, surely-</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> By example-</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> We are doing things. But many other countries are doing somewhat more. Admittedly, some are doing less. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Totally but by example, and what you’ve going to do is lead by example and show the commitment. And that’s what we’re showing, is a commitment to lead and do that by example. And obviously, we’re going to make sure we do that in a responsible way that the economy can support. Because if you don’t have an economy that supports it, it’s not worth a brass razoo. It’ll all fall over. So this is about calm, methodical policy to make sure we get there to support our economy, but to show the world by example that we are doing what we said we would by actions. And that’s how you lead by example in a good global community. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> One issue, of course, in this whole climate debate is coal. Now, before the election, the government promised a study into the potential for a coal fired power station in Queensland. Your home state. There’s been some delay in this, it appears, where’s all that up to? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Look that’s a question for the resource minister obviously, and energy minister. But as I understand, that election commitment has been upheld and we’re going to get on with the business case of that, as you’d expect. If we go to the election with a commitment, then we have to stand in front of the Australian people and say we’ve delivered and as I understand, that is been progressed. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now coming back to the fire issue. In April, Greg Mullins, former New South Wales fire and rescue chief and a number of others wrote to the prime minister asking for a meeting to discuss how the government could respond better to climate change and prepare for disasters like the one we’re seeing. They complained in a follow up letter that they were having trouble coordinating and meeting with Angus Taylor, the Environment Minister, and yourself. Can you explain why this meeting didn’t happen? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Because I was never asked. Sadly, my office has checked all our records and Mr Mullins has never sought a meeting with me. In fact, my office took the preemptive steps after seeing these reports in the media to reach out to Mr Mullins to say I’m prepared to meet with him. As I should. I’m the appropriate minister. But we have no correspondence of request of meeting from Mr Mullins. So it’s disappointing that media are suggesting that I haven’t accepted a media request because I would. I met with a number of stakeholders and prepared to continue to do that. Obviously, to get the best policy setting, you have to listen to a diverse range of ideas. So we’ve already initiated a mechanism to meet with Mr Mullins.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And when will that be? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> In the coming weeks, and have no problems with that. But it’s disappointing that there is an assertion-</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> This has been locked in firmly now? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> We’ve been in contact with Mr Mullins, in fact, some weeks before this week about trying to set up a period in which we could meet with him. And there’s no problems with that. I mean, that disappointingly muddies the air around real practical outcomes. And that’s the thing is I’m happy to listen. And I’m not passing dispersions on what his premises of his concerns are. But I’m also looking for what are his solutions? And anyone that comes through my door- it’s always easy- I get plenty of people coming through telling me what’s wrong. But often when you say, “well, how do I fix it?” is the challenge. So I’m very keen to meet with Mr Mullins, who has extensive experience, and I’d be keen to listen and to learn. I’m not the beholder of all wisdom and knowledge, but I’ve got to be the arbitrator of getting all that knowledge into one remit to formulate a proper policy that benefits every Australian. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now let’s turn to the drought, which, of course, is another major area in your responsibility. After months of pressure, the government has released the drought strategy report by the former coordinator general for drought Stephen Day. The Day report says, and I quote, “as a consequence of climate change, drought is likely to be more regular, longer in duration and broader in area”. Do you agree with this? And what will it mean for the pattern of farming in Australia in coming decades? Will, for example, we see fewer family farms as areas are consolidated into big company holdings? And will we see less farming on marginal land? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, this is already organically happening. I’m sorry to break it to metropolitan Australians, but you’re just catching up to us. The climate’s been adapting since we first put a till the soil. And the reality is our farmers are using cutting edge technology and science to adapt and they’re organically having these conversations. And in fact, a large wheat producer down in northern New South Wales said to me the other day that they’re now working their business model on not 600 millimetres of rain, but 450. And they go into their bank working through how they can make sure their business is viable. These aren’t people that sit on hay bales chewing straw every day. These are professional men and women that are running multi-million dollar businesses. So with all due respect, we are ahead of the game. Over A$1.1 billion a year from farmers and governments go into research and development to give them the tools to adapt. We now look to the future with the Future Fund and A$100 million a year will go to that and some of that will go into more research and development around drought.</p>
<p>So organically, these business decisions are happening and farmers themselves are doing it because you know what? They’re like everyone else in this country. They get up in the morning and what blows their hair back is to make a quid. And they are very passionate, not just about what they produce, but also about providing an income for their family. So I think you’ll find that there’s continuation of these types of decisions the primary producers are making every day. And I think your question around will there be fewer family farms is correct, but that’s also around the fact of the scale of economy. </p>
<p>And having been an agri-business bank manager that sat around kitchen tables, I think you’ll see fewer family farms but the family farms are bigger. And what you will also see is the family farm is the most productive and profitable. Corporate Australia will come and go from agriculture. There’ll be a few stayers, but invariably you’ll see a lot. They’ll come and go. And I’ve seen it over 20 years of banking, the most productive and profitable is always the family farm. But you do need the scale. And what you are seeing now is that there will be fewer family farms, but they’ll be larger in scale and what they produce because there is a future in it. </p>
<p>And in fact, you’re seeing the future in agriculture by some really interesting statistics. Farm equity has never been higher than what it is now. And over the last five consecutive years, we have seen an increase in land values, agricultural land values. Last year alone was 10.7 per cent. The reason for that - even in the middle of one of the worst droughts we’ve ever had - is that when it does rain, there’s gonna be a lot of money made in agriculture. And that’s why you’re seeing, the larger the scale, particularly the family operations, they’re expanding and buying out the smaller family farms. So they’re slowly building their aggregations. And for corporates to build large aggregations is very difficult. So that’s why I’m very confident of the future agriculture and the future of the family farm.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So was the high value of rural land one reason why the government in its drought package didn’t embrace the proposal put by the National Farmers Federation for exit payments for farmers? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, it’s one of the reasons. Our job as a federal government is to support and to be that safety net for those out there now and to keep as many going, those family farms, as we possibly can. We’ve got to be honest, there’ll be some that may not get through. I’m not going to sugarcoat it. This is difficult, but we live in a great country where there is a safety net and that’s a safety net that we as a government are providing and we’re comfortable to continue to do that. But the reality is, yes, farm equity has never been higher and people can have those organic conversations with their financiers now and in some cases are having it and leaving with considerable money in their pockets, paying out their debts.
And, you know, the banks have been rather conservative over the years in lending to agriculture because the vagaries of it. And because of the appetite for agriculture and where it’s going - the profitability once it rains - means that that has really forced up land prices because the economics is there. The trade agreements we put in place have been so important. I mean, five to ten years ago, I remember a bank manager and people didn’t understand this free trade thing. I thought it was nonsense. You know, we should lock our borders up, it just does doesn’t work. </p>
<p>Now, the free trade agreements are one of the most important things to farmers. In fact, I went and did a feed run with with a drought stricken farmer just before I first became elected three years ago. And I said to this lady, Kate, I said, you know, do you see a future in agriculture? </p>
<p>She said, mate, I don’t even know who you are. Couldn’t care less. The most important person to me in the Australian government at that time was Andrew Robb, because he was the trade minister. And she said to me, the fact that I’m sitting here throwing feed down these cattle’s throat is because of him. Because I know that once I get through this, those things are worth a lot of money. And I’m going to make a quid. I’m going to make a lot of money and I’m gonna be able to bring my kids back. </p>
<p>We’ve lost generations of young people out of outer community. It’s time to bring them home. And you can only do that if there’s money to be made. And finally, finally, there’s money be made because of the trading routes. We’re a nation of 25 billion people. We’ve produce enough food for 75. If we don’t engage the world, if we don’t trade with the world, we don’t need farmers out there. But we can trade with the world. And our commodity prices are showing that there is money to be made. The story of agriculture is just add rain and when it rains, we’re going to make a lot of money and we’re gonna drive this nation’s economy in a big way. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So do you think that the narrative by quite a lot of people, politicians, commentators and so on, around this drought is a wrong narrative? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Look, make no mistake, the gravity of it is severe, but we can’t perpetrate our own misery and turn off generations of agriculture. Agriculture is sexy again. This isn’t our first rodeo and it won’t be our last. I can tell you I’ve seen a few during my 43 years in Chinchilla. But you know what? Invariably, we find ways to get them through. And in fact, the agricultural sector has come a long way. Even when I was in the bank, I remember opening up cheques for interest rate subsidies. A$150,000 cheques to put into farmers accounts. They don’t do that anymore because they become more resilient. They’ve become more productive and profitable, and they’re able to support themselves. </p>
<p>But we have this safety net from the Australian and that’s the reason why we’ve got the trade agreements and we’ve got to understand that. So I think there’s a huge future and we’ve just got to be careful. While the gravity of this is significant, it is important to understand that when it rains, and we get some normal years. They’re going to make a lot of money. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Do you think that in dealing with this drought, we need better coordination between federal and state governments? Because you often hear from the feds oh well, we’re responsible for that and states are responsible for this. But you get the feeling that maybe there’s not the linkage that should be there? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, and you’re so right. I mean, we, in a bipartisan way, with all the states, agreed to the responsibilities we each had. Unfortunately there’s this thing called politics. And it’s become politically expedient for the states to duck and weave and to effectively use us as their ATM. and abrogate a lot of their responsibility. The facts are they’re to look after animal welfare, freight and fodder. Ours is to look after farmer welfare. But we’re having a delve into that.
We’ve said after this last package, you could actually come along way with us and compliment our package with providing rate relief to small businesses and farmers, as well as get rid of crown leasehold for for a year and then payroll tax. </p>
<p>You could compliment our package and that would have such a significant impact because the drought, you can understand, extends pass a farm gate. It gets into these little communities. And this is the challenge for metropolitan Australians to understand is it’s different to addressing a fire or flood where you can just go back and rebuild something. With a drought it’s intricate because there’s so many different moving parts of the local economy. Of these small economies that have to be worked through and you have to touch every point of that. So there’s not just one measure that you can put in place, and that’s hard for people to appreciate. </p>
<p>And, you know, there’s a lot of gratuitous advice out there. Bringing in one of them is to bring in the defence force to cart freight and fodder. And even though that’s a state’s responsibility, I’ll stand up for the states on this one. What you would do is by doing that, by just having men and women in khakis running through towns, carting high end water to farmers, you would take away the livelihoods of the mum and dad operators who have small trucking, carting businesses in those communities and variably employ three or four people. And if you take them out of the community, the compounding of impact is so, so intense. So that’s the thing is we get these simplistic notions from a lot of people and they’re well intended. And in simplistic terms, it sounds right. But in practical application, it has an unintended consequence that destroys a lot of these little communes. </p>
<p>I live in a town of 800 people. You lose a couple of the local carters who employ a few people. That’s someone that doesn’t spend the money at the local IGA, doesn’t go to the local butcher, doesn’t go the pub on a Friday night and it just compounds. You lose a teacher, you lose you lose a policeman. So it’s an intricate, intricate policy setting. And you’ve got to understand the intricacies of these small communities and how those economies come together. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Well, one issue that raises is your concessional loan scheme for businesses, which you’ve announced. That’s restricted to agriculture related businesses. But some businesses in towns will be very much hit by the drought, even though they’re not directly related. Some food shops, for example, which may have to extend debt to their customers. Is that unfair that they don’t fall into that concessional loans scheme? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, obviously, we’re going to continue to evolve. And we’re the first government to acknowledge small business through this A$500,000 loan. And this isn’t necessarily- and it’s the same for farmers. And everyone is running around saying giving farmers more debt isn’t the right thing. This isn’t necessarily saying giving farmers more debt. This is saying re-finance up to A$2 million dollars of your existing debt to the Regional Investment Corporation and pay nothing, not a cent for two years. That, that I was talking to farm only this week they’re paying 5 per cent. That’s A$200,000 that we’re putting back into farmers pockets now. And others say, well, why don’t we just give him the A$200,000? Well, if we give them, that’s a subsidy and then removes all their free trade agreements that we put in place. That’s the complexity of this. </p>
<p>So they’re saying for a small business, we’re saying up to A$500,000 you can go to re-finance your loan and pay no interest, no repayments for two years. And we’ve said at the end of that two years, if things are still dry, we’re gonna have to revisit that. As we may have to revisit the extent of the number of small businesses that come on to this-</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Because it’s an arbitrary line. Some of these agri-businesses might, in fact, be doing reasonably well because say stock and station agents who are dealing in land, which might be being sold, animals that are going to market, etc. and yet other businesses won’t be doing well. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> But invariably you can go down the mechanics business, the local seed merchant, they’re the guys also that are impacted that when there’s no rain, there’s no planning, you don’t get the machine fixed, you don’t get your ute fixed. And so. What it’s about is, is to stimulate them to one, keep those people they’ve got employed, employed. But also give them the ability to clean up - even some of those accounts that aren’t with the bank - that has a stimulus of going around, because invariably they’re with other businesses in town. So this is the first step in understanding that those small businesses that support agriculture production through products and services, their cash flows are aligned to the farm. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But it would be extended to other small businesses if the drought continues? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> We have obviously said everything’s on the table in terms of where we get to. And that’s the thing is this drought, everyone thinks this is it. This is the first thing. And it’s all too little, too late. It doesn’t acknowledge all the stuff that we’ve put in place over the last two or three years to get to now over A$8 billion worth of commitments. And we’ve said we’re going to continue to go further. And I think I get the emotion out there. And the federal government is playing its role. And that’s why I say there’s a real opportunity for the states to stand with us shoulder to shoulder. They own local government. They could pay the rates to local governments so they small businesses and farmers- and payroll taxes.</p>
<p>You know, the next big kicker, is the drought is going to hit- the drought is coming to our meat processing sector when it rains. They haven’t got to drought them because they’ve got plenty of supply of stock. But when it rains, they’re going to have a real issue around supply stocks. So their drought is coming. But what the scary thing with that is, is you go to some of these small towns that have an abattoir of 4-500 employees in a town of 6-7,000 people. They don’t have a job. And that’s why payroll tax is so important. </p>
<p>For the states to do something now is to build some buffering for those meat processors, because you lose 400 or 500 people out of a town of 5-6,000 people, that that is a real kick that will destroy a lot of these communities and take them into a new perspective that we haven’t seen before. </p>
<p>So it’s important that we all come together and we do our bit. And it’s important the states actually acknowledge that. Andthey’ve been hiding underneath the political coverage of commentators smashing me and smashing the prime minister rather than us all saying, hey, we will get a responsibility in this. I’m not shirking my responsibility. The prime minister is not. But we’re just saying states you could show that you’re not either by doing your bit as well. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So what’s been the response in the last week since the package was announced? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Zero. From the states? </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Yes. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Zero. I’ve actually written to the states twice asking them to consider this. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And they haven’t replied to those letters? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> No, and even publicly asked for some support, even on a food and fibre tariff for electricity, because a lot of them are government owned corporations that are providing to their regional areas where they’re taking significant dividends in Queensland alone. And A$1.8 billion dividend they take back at a generation and distribution to the Queensland coffers. But yet energy costs in regional Queensland, because we don’t have competition, is significantly higher than metro. So while they discount it to some extent now, they could go even further to build some impetus into these economies to keep them going. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, I want to just finish up with a couple of questions about the Nationals. Throughout these crises, we’ve seen the Nationals in some disarray. Michael McCormack been under fire for some time. Barnaby Joyce runs his own somewhat unhelpful race. And Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie has taken a hit on the dairy code. What does the party need to do to get its act together? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, obviously, there’s 21 passionate individuals in there and they’re passionate about their communities. And we’re facing one of the biggest challenges a lot of our communities are facing ever with this drought. And obviously, there is passion about how we get credit for that. Now, I’m a little bit more comfortable that I just want outcomes. And I think that’s the most important thing that we should we should work on. Obviously, there’s a lot of people in there that want to make sure that we get credit for what- over A$8 billion we’ve committed. That’s a lot of money that we’re putting into regional Australia. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So do they feel that Scott Morrison and the Liberals are just getting too much of the credit while the Nationals do quite a lot of hard work?</p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I think a good thing is there’s competitive tension in any coalition. I mean, I don’t think we should get upset about it either. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> I thought division was death. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> No well I think I’d call it competitive tension. You know, I think it’s a good thing. And I think diversity of ideas is a good thing. I think for too long, people and parties get castigated for having different ideas within it. I think we should celebrate that as a democracy. That shows to me that our democracy is working, that even within our own party, there’s a divergence of views and ideas. That’s a healthy thing. We’ve got to create an environment where we can have that discussion and then obviously all accept the outcome. But I don’t think we should we should be upset by the fact that there are people with a wide range of ideas that can come to this place and make it a better nation, and particularly for us in regional Australia, make a better regional Australia. I think that’s the most important thing we should do. I’m quite comfortable with where the National Party is. I mean, I think they’re a little bit robust nature is how we operate. You know, that’s what happens in regional Australia. You go and dance. You have a bit of a- you have it out, and have a yarn, and you go and have a beer, and you get on with the job of delivery. And that’s what the 21 of us are doing. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Traditionally, though, the Nationals had very strong leaders. They were very important within the coalition for that strength of leadership. And they were very united. That’s not the picture today. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, I think there’s a perception that obviously some have tried to run with. But I mean- </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> It’s the history though. </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, let me add to that history, the history of what Michael McCormack has been able to achieve. We’re now over A$8 billion for drought, A$3.5 billion for water infrastructure on top of that. When it’s not and again, that again is the responsibility, the states, but they’ve done three-fifths of bugger all. And we decided to lead. We decide to say, you know what, we’re not allowed to pick a shovel up in this country and dig a hole for a dam unless you say so. But what we’ll do is we’ll give you some money to go and build that. </p>
<p>And Michael McCormack, when you talk about the importance of past leaders, I think have a look at what he’s achieved. He’s been a quiet achiever that, you know, might not go and blow his trumpet enough. But I think his record is quite thorough and quite sound is what he’s achieved in his 18 months as deputy prime minister for regional Australia and the National Party. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, finally, you’re from Queensland, where the regional members of the Liberal National Party will face a tough challenge from One Nation at next year’s election. How does the party best combat Pauline Hanson’s One Nation? </p>
<p><strong>DL:</strong> Well, we’ve got to articulate to the electorate exactly what I’ve just articulated, what we’ve achieved, and I know what Deb Frecklington is trying to achieve in committing to more infrastructure. The reality is what people have to understand while they get upset with the political discourse. When you go and vote for Pauline Hanson, Bob Katter, an independent. You might get a warm, fuzzy feeling for the first five minutes, but all you get is a professional complaints desk. None of them sit inside that room called cabinet that I sit in and sign the cheques. All you get is someone yelling and screaming from outside the room, that means nothing. So that’s where we’ve got to be better in articulating exactly what we’ve done and what we intend to do. But you can go down the populist route and you know, there’s a section of the community that that aligns, too. But people need to understand that all you get is a professional complaints desk. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> David Littleproud. Thank you very much for talking with us today. </p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
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<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<p><strong>Image:</strong></p>
<p>AAP/Dan Peled</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, David Littleproud says "as elected officials, we've got a responsibility" to wait for the right time to talk about the link between climate change and the ongoing bushfires.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1242902019-11-11T19:02:10Z2019-11-11T19:02:10ZThe milk, the whole milk and nothing but the milk: the story behind our dairy woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301045/original/file-20191111-194675-156dl7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=604%2C7%2C4315%2C3268&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A dairy cow grazes on the lawns in front of Parliament House in Canberra in 2015, as part of an industry event.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The plight of Australia’s dairy farmers is on the political agenda this week, after One Nation leader Pauline Hanson <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-no-longer-party-of-the-bush-pauline-hanson-lashes-out-after-milk-price-floor-push-fails/news-story/22a49ee1caefef5e504f8c306254700f">narrowly failed in her Senate bid</a> for a minimum milk price. But getting fair payment for their goods is far from the only challenge dairy farmers face.</p>
<p>Pressure has been mounting on the industry for the past decade. Existing milk alternatives are growing their market share, helped by a rise in veganism and public concern around animal welfare. The agriculture sector is under pressure to reduce its contribution to climate change, and technology advances mean milk may one day be produced without cows at all. </p>
<p>All this has been compounded by devastating and prolonged drought. So here’s the full story of the hurdles farmers face, now and in the future, to get milk into your fridge.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301053/original/file-20191111-194637-rnr31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dairy cattle at milking time at a farm in Rochester, Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span>
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<h2>Fluctuating farm gate price</h2>
<p>The rate at which processors pay farmers for milk is known as the <a href="https://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/industry/prices/farmgate-milk-price">farm gate price</a>. The prices are not regulated and are set by market forces.</p>
<p>In 2016 <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2016/June/Dairy_industry_developments">the milk price crashed</a> when Australia’s two largest dairy processors, Murray Goulburn and Fonterra, lowered the price they would pay from about 48 cents a litre to as low as 40 cents.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/un-climate-change-report-land-clearing-and-farming-contribute-a-third-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gases-121551">UN climate change report: land clearing and farming contribute a third of the world's greenhouse gases</a>
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<p>This dramatically cut the incomes of milk suppliers. The number of dairy farmers in Australia fell by 600, or 9% <a href="https://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/industry/farm-facts/cows-and-farms">over four years</a>. This exit has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/feb/24/drought-and-low-milk-prices-push-dairy-farmers-to-the-brink">exacerbated by drought</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, the farm gate milk price has increased and in 2019–20 is <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-commodities/sep-2019/dairy">expected to be 51 cents per litre</a>, due to a weaker Australian dollar and demand from export markets. But forecast global prices for butter, cheese and whole milk powder this financial year remain below that of previous years.</p>
<p><iframe id="l0KkW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/l0KkW/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Methane, and milk alternatives</h2>
<p>Methane and other livestock emissions <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/climatechange/australias-farming-future/livestock-emissions">comprise about 10%</a> of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made clear in its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl-report-download-page/">land use report in August</a>, changes must be made across the food production chain if the world is to keep global warming below the critical 1.5°C threshold. For beef and dairy livestock, this means changes such as land and manure management, higher-quality feed and genetic improvements. Meeting this challenge cost-effectively, while improving productivity, is no small task.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/crying-over-plant-based-milk-neither-science-nor-history-favours-a-dairy-monopoly-123852">Crying over plant-based milk: neither science nor history favours a dairy monopoly</a>
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<p>Technology may help in curbing greenhouse gas emissions from cows, but it also threatens to replace the dairy industry altogether. Advances in biotech may enable liquid analogous to milk to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/lab-grown-dairy-the-next-food-frontier-117963">produced through bioculture systems</a>, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141022-lab-grown-milk-biotechnology-gmo-food-climate/">without a cow in sight</a>. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, the rise of plant-based alternatives derived from soybeans, almonds, oats and other sources threatens traditional milk products. This can partly be attributed to increasing numbers of people adopting a vegan diet. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301047/original/file-20191111-194661-1t0vqpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmers must overcome a host of challenges to deliver milk to consumers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Miller/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Taking calves away from cows</h2>
<p>For a mammal to produce milk, it must usually become pregnant and produce offspring. Female calves generally go into a farm’s pool of replacement animals, while male dairy calves are sold.</p>
<p>Pure-breed male dairy calves do not naturally lay down a lot of muscle and so do not generally make good beef livestock. Many are sent to the abattoir for slaughter, typically between 5 and 30 days of age. This practice has prompted welfare concerns and means the industry must carefully manage the handling and transport of vulnerable young calves.</p>
<p>Potential solutions include artificial insemination of cows using only semen that will produce female calves. The use of this technology is limited because it reduces conception rates.</p>
<p>There is also growing public concern about the separation of cows and calves not sent to the abbatoir. The calves are typically taken within the first 12-24 hours and reared together in a shed, where they are fed milk or milk replacer. This is thought to maximise the amount of saleable milk and minimise disease transfer from cow to calf, <a href="https://www.animalhealthaustralia.com.au/what-we-do/endemic-disease/johnes-disease/jd-and-dairy-cattle/three-step-calf-rearing-plan/">particularly Johne’s Disease</a>. However, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022030219304175">recent research</a> has found <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022030219304369">little evidence</a> to support these practices. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022030219304369">Research has shown</a> that calf-cow separation in the first day of life causes lower distress than abrupt separation at a few weeks of age or older, when the bond is stronger. This is not to say that early separation is not a concern. Rather, in the face of consumer demands for certain ethical standards, simple fixes may be hard to implement. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301049/original/file-20191111-194661-1s8mybs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Topless animal welfare activists protest in Melbourne in February 2019 to raise awareness of what they claim is cruelty within the dairy industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ellen Smith/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>The message for consumers</h2>
<p>Challenges to the dairy industry will take time and effort to address. Some, such as drought, are out of farmers’ control. Dry conditions and high cost of water, fodder and electricity have <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-commodities/jun-2019/dairy">forced farmers to cull less productive dairy cows</a>, leading to a decline in production. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/supermarkets-are-not-milking-dairy-farmers-dry-the-myth-that-obscures-the-real-problem-105300">Supermarkets are not milking dairy farmers dry: the myth that obscures the real problem</a>
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<p>The pressures, and associated debt, create intense stress for farmers, increase family tensions, and have negative flow-on effects throughout rural communities.</p>
<p>Putting aside the political push for a regulated milk price, the key message for dairy consumers is clear. If we want our milk produced in a certain way, we must pay a fair market-based price to cover the costs to farmers of fulfilling our wants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124290/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Fisher has received funding from Dairy Australia, Meat and Livestock Australia and Parmalat for research into animal welfare issues in dairy production and calf transport. </span></em></p>Pressure is mounting on Australia’s dairy farmers, from farm gate prices to animal welfare concerns, and technology that could produce milk without cows.Andrew Fisher, Professor of Cattle & Sheep Production Medicine, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258842019-10-25T08:58:02Z2019-10-25T08:58:02ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the Hanson dairy deal - and John Setka’s resignation<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher and Michelle Grattan discuss the fallout from Pauline Hanson’s deal with the agriculture minister Bridget McKenzie regarding the dairy code. They also talk about John Setka’s resignation from the Labor Party, and what that means for opposition leader Anthony Albanese.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses this week in politics with University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1240762019-09-24T20:14:18Z2019-09-24T20:14:18ZReal problem, wrong solution: why the Nationals shouldn’t politicise the science replication crisis<p>The <a href="https://campusmorningmail.com.au/news/national-party-wants-independent-agency-to-vet-research/">National Party</a>, Queensland farming lobby group <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/farmers-fight-tough-new-rules-to-protect-the-great/11526168">AgForce</a>, and MP <a href="https://www.bobkatter.com.au/media/media-releases/view/1029/katter-demands-govt-audit-reef-quality-science-/media-releases">Bob Katter</a> have banded together to propose an “independent science quality assurance agency”.</p>
<p>To justify their position, Liberal-National MP George Christensen and AgForce’s Michael Guerin specifically invoked the “replication crisis” in science, in which researchers in various fields have found it difficult or impossible to reproduce and validate original research findings. Their proposal, however, is not a good solution to the problem. </p>
<p>The more important context is that these politicians and lobbyists are opposed to <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/agriculture/sustainable-farming/reef/reef-regulations/strengthening-regulations">new laws</a> to curb agricultural runoff onto the Great Barrier Reef that are underpinned by research finding evidence of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cloudy-issue-we-need-to-fix-the-barrier-reefs-murky-waters-39380">harm from poor water quality</a>. Christensen <a href="https://www.facebook.com/gchristensenmp/photos/a.769408183114112/2334140303307551/?type=3&theater">suggests</a> that many scientific papers behind such regulation “have never been tested and their conclusions may be wrong”. But Christensen seems to be targeting specific results he doesn’t like, rather than trying to improve scientific practice in a systematic way.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-is-in-a-reproducibility-crisis-how-do-we-resolve-it-16998">Science is in a reproducibility crisis – how do we resolve it?</a>
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<p>In various scientific areas, including psychology and preclinical medicine, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06075-z">large-scale replication projects</a> have failed to reproduce the findings of many original studies. The rates of success differ between fields, but on average only <a href="https://cos.io/about/news/28-classic-and-contemporary-psychology-findings-replicated-more-60-laboratories-each-across-three-dozen-nations-and-territories/">half</a> <a href="https://www.castoredc.com/blog/replication-crisis-medical-research">or</a> <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/over-half-of-psychology-studies-fail-reproducibility-test-1.18248">fewer</a> of published studies were successfully replicated. Clearly there is a problem.</p>
<p>Much of the problem is due to hyper-competitiveness in science, funding shortfalls, publication practices, and the use of performance metrics that privilege quantity over quality. </p>
<p>Scientists themselves have <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-is-a-problem-australias-top-scientist-alan-finkel-pushes-to-eradicate-bad-science-123374">documented the poor practices</a> that underlie this crisis, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-survey-found-questionable-research-practices-by-ecologists-and-biologists-heres-what-that-means-94421">misuse of statistics</a>, often unwittingly, in ways that bias findings towards attention-grabbing conclusions. These practices distort the evidence available to policy-makers and other researchers. </p>
<p>Scientists have also already produced responses to some problems: <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02674-6">reforms in peer review</a>, <a href="https://cos.io/top/">guidelines for methods and statistical reporting</a>, and <a href="https://osf.io/dashboard">new platforms for data sharing</a>. These improvements are possible only by taking the replication crisis seriously. Paying lip service to it so as to attack particular legislation is the opposite of this.</p>
<h2>Making decisions under uncertainty</h2>
<p>Establishing an agency with a mission to adjudicate on hand-picked scientific results would make things worse. </p>
<p>At best, such an agency will be one more review panel. At worst, it will be a bureaucratic front for the political agenda of the day. Either way, it will make scientists even more cautious, and delay the flow of information to policy-makers.</p>
<p>The track records of the lobbyists involved in this latest move suggests that they have little genuine interest in improving science. AgForce reportedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/agforce-deletes-decades-worth-of-data-from-government-funded-barrier-reef-program">deleted more than a decade’s worth of data meant for a government water quality program</a> in advance of the new runoff regulations taking effect.</p>
<p>Exploiting scientific uncertainty has long been a classic tactic of industry lobbyists. It has been used to justify inaction on everything from <a href="https://www.merchantsofdoubt.org/">tobacco</a> to <a href="https://www.thegwpf.com/donna-laframboise-peer-review-why-skepticism-is-essential/">climate change</a>. Local politicians and lobby groups seem to be copying moves from a well-worn overseas playbook in their misuse of the replication crisis.</p>
<p>Scientists can never make pronouncements with the certainty of a politician. But if, as a society, we want to benefit fully from science, we need to accept the idea of scientific uncertainty. The existence of uncertainties does not justify rejection of the best available evidence.</p>
<h2>To defend science we need to improve it</h2>
<p>It is tempting to respond to politically motivated attacks on science by simply pointing to the excellent track record of scientific knowledge, or the good intentions of the vast majority of scientists. </p>
<p>But there is a better reason: scientists themselves have been improving science. As advocates of reform, we have been told that pointing out problems helps the anti-science movement. We disagree: being open about our work to improve science is essential for building public trust.</p>
<p>Science is something that humans do. It is self-correcting when, and only when, scientists <a href="https://twitter.com/jamesheathers/status/845696144999137280">correct it</a>. Research is hard work, and we can’t expect scientists never to make errors or to provide complete certainty. But we can expect scientists to create a culture that values detecting and correcting errors.</p>
<p>Admitting errors in one’s own work, finding them in others’ work, reporting them, retracting results when necessary, and correcting the record are activities that should be the most highly regarded of scientific practices. We need to shift the balance of rewards away from rewarding only groundbreaking discoveries, and towards the painstaking work of confirmation.</p>
<p>A cultural shift in this regard is already underway, to better align <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/sharing-science-%E2%80%93-for-the-good-of-all/11330816">scientific practices with scientific values</a>. But there is more to be done, and governments can help.</p>
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<p>There are sensible policies to support the open science initiatives that will reduce error production and increase error detection in scientific work. Different fields need different approaches, but here are two ideas.</p>
<p>First, improve funding allocation procedures. Reward self-correcting activities such as replication studies. Don’t require every piece of funded research to be groundbreaking. Don’t rely on flawed metrics. Enforce best-practice data management and open data practices whenever feasible. This can all be done without establishing an inefficient agency whose likely effect is to delay action.</p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-fraud-to-fair-play-australia-must-support-research-integrity-15733">establish a national independent office of research integrity</a> to allow errors in the scientific literature, whether deliberate or accidental, to be corrected in a fair, efficient, and systematic way. Unlike the politicians’ proposal, this would improve the process for all researchers, not just act as a handbrake on research findings that lobbyists don’t like.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Bush receives funding from DARPA (US Defense) for a project under the SCORE program, about predicting the likelihood of replication of published studies in social science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex O. Holcombe has received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bonnie Wintle receives funding from a University of Melbourne Research Fellowship (Career Interruptions). She also receives funding from DARPA (US Defense) for a project under the SCORE program, about predicting the likelihood of replication of published studies in social science. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona Fidler receives funding from the ARC, including a current Future Fellowship about replicability and reproducibility in ecology and environmental science. She also has funding from DARPA (US Defense) for a project under the SCORE program, about predicting the likelihood of replication of published studies in social science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simine Vazire receives funding from the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p>Across science, only around half of published results can be successfully replicated. But while this is a serious problem, the proposed public audit looks like a political bid to cast doubt on science.Martin Bush, Research Fellow in History and Philosophy of Science, The University of MelbourneAlex O. Holcombe, Professor, School of Psychology, University of SydneyBonnie Claire Wintle, Research fellow, The University of MelbourneFiona Fidler, Associate Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of MelbourneSimine Vazire, Professor, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1172082019-05-15T11:59:09Z2019-05-15T11:59:09ZAngry Nationals play payback in NSW Senate row<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274628/original/file-20190515-60560-9xv5lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Molan is running a campaign urging people to vote for him “below the line” after he was relegated to an unwinnable fourth spot on the Senate ticket. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nationals federal president Larry Anthony has added his weight to a call by the NSW party for supporters to vote “below the line” in the Senate, in retaliation against the campaign by maverick Liberal senator Jim Molan to get voters to buck the Coalition’s joint ticket.</p>
<p>Molan, a rightwinger who was relegated to an unwinnable fourth place on the ticket, is canvassing for votes to go to him personally rather than to the ticket.</p>
<p>He has no prospect of being elected but the votes he takes from above the line harm the Nationals’ chances of getting their candidate Perin Davey elected.</p>
<p>Votes “above the line” are for a party or group; “below the line” is where candidates are listed individually.</p>
<p>A furious NSW Nationals organisation accused Molan’s backers of breaking the Coalition agreement for the joint ticket and asked its party members to tell people to vote below the line to maximise Davey’s prospects.</p>
<p>Davey has third place on the joint ticket, behind the two Liberal candidates, making her chances already very precarious. </p>
<p>Anthony said on Wednesday night: “We had an agreement with the Liberal Party and Perin Davey is a very good candidate. If there is a group of people suggesting a vote below the line then we will reciprocate. It will have an impact [on the Nationals vote] and we’re responding accordingly”. </p>
<p>In an email to party members, the Nationals’ NSW chairman Bede Burke and director Ross Cadell said: “Supporters of Liberal senator Jim Molan have taken it upon themselves to campaign for a ‘below the line’ vote, which in our view, breaks the Coalition Agreement and seriously harms the chances of a Nationals Senator being elected.</p>
<p>"That is why we are asking you to vote below the line on the Senate ballot paper, for The Nationals’ Perin Davey and Sam Farraway”.</p>
<p>Unless Davey is elected there will be no NSW Nationals senator. John “Wacka” Williams, from NSW, is retiring at the election.</p>
<p>“We must continue to have a strong, regional voice in the Senate fighting for our communities,” Burke and Cadell said.</p>
<p>They said they had “no choice” but to follow suit after an increase in campaigning from Molan’s supporters, and “actively encourage everyone to vote below the line” for the Nationals’ candidates. “This is the only way to guarantee our communities have a voice in the Senate,” they said.</p>
<p>“We are not taking this extraordinary step lightly. The Coalition Agreement is something that is fundamental to our ability as Nationals to deliver for our regions.”</p>
<p>Asking people to vote below the line “is not something we want to do”, but the party needed every one its members to do so “and to encourage everyone they know to do the same”.</p>
<p>Molan said he did not want to comment, beyond saying that on Wednesday he had been handing in the seat of Whitlam for the Nationals candidate and would be handing out for Andrew Gee, the Nationals MP in Calare on Thursday. </p>
<p>But the Nationals are concerned about the potential erosion of votes for the Senate ticket in these regional areas.</p>
<p>The Prime Minister’s Office said the issue was a matter for the party headquarters. HQ referred to comments by the deputy leader of the Liberal party Josh Frydenberg - who had dodged the question, telling a news conference “matters for New South Wales are matters for the organisation”. </p>
<p>Labor’s campaign spokesman Jim Chalmers said the NSW fight “is the final proof that the Liberals and Nationals are a dumpster fire of disunity and dysfunction”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A furious NSW Nationals organisation has accused supporters of maverick Liberal senator Jim Molan of breaking the Coalition agreement and asked party members to urge people to vote “below the line”.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.