tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/nudge-theory-1961/articlesNudge theory – The Conversation2024-01-30T13:32:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210702024-01-30T13:32:52Z2024-01-30T13:32:52ZColorado limits plastic bags, Boulder expands fees – but do bans and fines actually reduce waste?<p><em>Colorado <a href="https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/hb21-1162">banned</a> plastic bags from large retail stores at the beginning of 2024. A <a href="https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb19-243">new state ordinance</a> also prohibits restaurants and retail food establishments from using Styrofoam takeout containers.</em> </p>
<p><em>In Boulder, food shoppers have been paying 10 cents for <a href="https://bouldercolorado.gov/media/5850">every bag</a> they need at checkout since 2013, with only paper and heavy-duty plastic bags available. Those fees were <a href="https://bouldercolorado.gov/news/all-boulder-stores-will-charge-disposable-bag-fee-beginning-jan-1-2024">expanded</a> this year to retail stores of all kinds and sizes.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation interviewed Eleanor Putnam-Farr, an assistant professor of marketing at Rice University and co-author of “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/725110">Forgot Your Bottle or Bag Again? How Well-Placed Reminder Cues Can Help Consumers Build Sustainable Habits</a>,” about the challenges of changing people’s behavior – even when their intentions are good.</em></p>
<h2>How popular are plastic bag bans and taxes?</h2>
<p>Laws like Colorado’s are popular. Twelve <a href="https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Ffonteva-customer-media%2F00D61000000dOrPEAU%2FLTgFaUwr_Consumer_Bag_Matrix_July_2023_xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK">states, plus Puerto Rico, and more than 300 municipalities</a>, <a href="https://www.phila.gov/2023-04-27-this-earth-month-we-celebrate-the-impacts-of-the-citys-plastic-bag-ban-one-year-in/">including Philadelphia</a>, have banned plastic bag use by consumers. Charging a fee for bags is less common, but rules like this are in effect in Washington, D.C.; Honolulu, Hawaii; Santa Fe, New Mexico; and other U.S. cities.</p>
<p>And these types of regulations aren’t limited to the U.S. Many other countries are also cracking down on plastic bag use, including <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2021-03-23/china-single-use-plastic-straw-and-bag-ban-takes-effect/">China</a>, <a href="https://www.eaglefm.com.na/news/environmentgovt-ponders-complete-plastic-ban/">Namibia</a> and <a href="https://www.tembopaper.com/news/portuguese-retailers-adopt-measures-to-reduce-plastic-use">Portugal</a>.</p>
<p>Cities and towns have tried a lot of strategies, from educating consumers to banning the use of bags or just nudging them to do the right thing by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.12.009">imposing small fees</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.12.009">Nudges leave the choice up to the consumer</a> and are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-people-like-government-nudges-study-says-yes-85567">more palatable</a> than outright bans. </p>
<h2>Do bans and taxes divert waste from landfills?</h2>
<p>Many cities have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022242921992052">reported decreases in plastic bag use</a> after imposing plastic bag bans and fees, but the effects may be small.</p>
<p>In a study on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.12.009">efficacy of a bag fee implemented in Toronto</a>, researchers found a 3.4% increase in the use of reusable bags, mostly among higher-income customers.</p>
<h2>But even a small reduction is progress, right?</h2>
<p>Maybe. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/468061">Research on parents who were assessed fees</a> when they picked up their children late at 10 different day care centers found that small charges actually led to a big increase in tardy parents – who apparently felt they were paying for the right to be late.</p>
<p>Boulder may be fighting the same sort of complacency. <a href="https://bouldercolorado.gov/revenue-reports">Disposable bag fees</a> collected from 2013 through 2022 fluctuated slightly year to year, but increased more often than not – suggesting that people are buying more bags, not fewer. Earning 6 cents for every bag sold – the stores keep the rest – Boulder brought in US$243,507 in tax revenue in 2021 and $248,518 in 2022. </p>
<h2>Why don’t more consumers use reusable bags?</h2>
<p>Consumers stick to plastic bags <a href="https://doi.org/10.34068/joe.59.04.17">for many reasons, including convenience</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.34068/joe.59.04.17">Research on farmers market shoppers in Ohio</a> suggests accidentally leaving reusable bags in their cars or at home is an obstacle, and some consumers prefer plastic bags because they reuse them for trash and pet waste. But researchers from Chile, which enacted a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45066268">complete ban on plastic bags in 2019</a>, found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022242921992052">people there weren’t committed to reusable bags</a>. Consumers in Chile felt pressured to change their behavior, and guilty when they didn’t comply. They also felt like 100% of the burden of sustainability was forced on them, all of which undermined the goal of the ban.</p>
<h2>What does work to encourage consumers to use reusable bags?</h2>
<p>The most important thing is to understand that most people <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/09/what-the-data-says-about-americans-views-of-climate-change/">don’t set out to use more plastic</a>. So the best solutions help consumers achieve their goals and make access to reusable bags easier. The key is to determine the biggest impediment to shoppers bringing reusable bags. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/725110">our research about reusable bottles</a>, my colleagues at the Yale Center for Customer Insights and at Google knew that most employees of the office site had reusable bottles but forgot to bring them to the water stations to refill them. Instead of banning plastic cups or disposable bottles, we created reminders and placed them near the workers’ desks. These reminders helped people behave the way they wanted to behave and had the added benefit of making the people feel good about the overall process, which can be its own reward. </p>
<p>The same can work for reusable bags even without imposing bans or fines. If people don’t have reusable bags, make them available. If people are forgetting their bags in the cars, create reminders in the parking lot. If people are leaving their bags at home, supply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/725110">bag hooks</a> they can place near their doors. These create easy visual reminders to grab the shopping bags on their way out of the house.</p>
<p><em>This story has been edited to clarify that Colorado’s plastic ban bag is a state law.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I was a postdoc at the Yale Center for Customer Insights when the experiment was conducted at Google. Google provided funding to YCCI and their employees were coauthors on the bottle experiment paper described.</span></em></p>Retail stores in Boulder, Colo., banned plastic bags and will charge 10 cents for paper bags in an effort to reduce plastic waste. But do bans and taxes like this really work?Eleanor Putnam-Farr, Assistant Professor of Marketing, Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137692023-10-10T19:03:32Z2023-10-10T19:03:32Z‘Phantom decoys’ manipulate human shoppers – but bees may be immune to their charms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552452/original/file-20231006-29-apjef6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C10%2C3468%2C1954&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/macro-shot-honey-bee-collecting-pollen-718733596">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Have you ever waited in a long queue only to find the ice cream flavour you wanted is gone? What did you choose instead? </p>
<p>In the field of behavioural economics, researchers have shown that people make very predictable second choices if the item they want is sold out. So much so, that it is possible to use unavailable items to nudge people into buying certain products. </p>
<p>These unavailable items are referred to as phantom decoys, because even though they are not available, they still influence peoples’ choices. </p>
<p>So much for humans. What about bees? In <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00040-023-00934-3">new research</a> published in Insectes Sociaux, we tested whether honeybees could be influenced by the phantom decoy effect – with surprising results.</p>
<h2>Phantom decoys in the animal world</h2>
<p>Research has found phantom decoys influence animals including <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10071-010-0350-9">cats</a>, <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2656.12288">Asian honey bees</a> and <a href="https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3287219/v1">monkeys</a>. </p>
<p>However, it’s not all straightforward. Phantom decoys can apparently make <a href="https://academic.oup.com/beheco/advance-article/doi/10.1093/beheco/arad057/7232488?login=true">wallabies</a> spend more time investigating all the available food options, but the decoys don’t nudge their choices.</p>
<p>Testing phantom decoy effects can help us understand why animals make particular choices. This can have benefits for agriculture, conservation and even pest control.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-bees-dont-know-can-help-them-measuring-insect-indecision-20099">What bees don't know can help them: measuring insect indecision</a>
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<p>Western honey bees (<em>Apis mellifera</em>) are important pollinators of agricultural crops around the world. In Australia, the honeybee industry is worth <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/hort-policy/honeybees#honey-levy">A$14 billion a year</a> in honey production and pollination services. </p>
<p>Bees visit flowers to collect nectar and pollen, which provides them with carbohydrates and protein. In this process, they also pollinate plants, which is essential for the plants to reproduce. </p>
<p>However, not all flowers provide bees with nectar: some are, in effect, phantom decoys. Flowers that were rich in nectar at one time may have none at others, either because other insects have already collected it or because of variation in nectar production throughout the day. Some <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-strange-donkey-orchid-uses-uv-light-to-trick-bees-into-thinking-it-has-food-198980">flowers</a> never contain much nectar at all, but attract pollinators by resembling other plants that have more nectar.</p>
<h2>Artificial flowers, real choices</h2>
<p>In our latest research, we tested whether Western honey bees fall for phantom decoys. Instead of real flowers, we used artificial flowers made from a laminated piece of paper with a tube containing nectar in the centre. </p>
<p>To create different “values” of flowers, we adjusted the nectar quality of the flowers by increasing the nectar’s sugar content. We also adjusted the accessibility of the nectar by forcing bees to crawl down tubes to get to it. Short tubes were “easy access”; longer tubes made flowers “difficult to access”.</p>
<p>We then trained bees to fly into a box where they had a choice of three flowers: one flower was easy to access, but had low nectar quality; a second flower had high-quality nectar, but was difficult to access; and a third flower had easy access <em>and</em> much higher-quality nectar than the other two flowers. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, bees quickly preferred flower number three. To see whether bees were influenced by the phantom decoy effect, we then gave them the same choice between three flowers, except the easy-access, high-quality flower was empty of nectar. </p>
<h2>Bees won’t accept second best</h2>
<p>Unlike humans, who would likely have picked whatever available option was most similiar to the empty flower, bees did not make choices in any predictable fashion after encountering the “sold out” empty flower. This suggests that, at least in this case, they were not susceptible to phantom decoys. </p>
<p>Instead, when bees encountered an empty phantom decoy flower, they left all three flowers alone. This is in contrast to <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090929133252.htm">humans</a>, for whom unavailable items often create a sense of urgency, making them more likely to spend money on other items. </p>
<p>The bees’ behaviour is like discovering your favourite ice cream flavour is sold out and, instead of buying the next-best flavour, you leave the shop with no ice cream at all. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bees-are-astonishingly-good-at-making-decisions-and-our-computer-model-explains-how-thats-possible-208189">Bees are astonishingly good at making decisions – and our computer model explains how that's possible</a>
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<p>Bees also moved more between all three flowers in the presence of an empty flower, probably because the bees expected the empty flower would eventually refill.</p>
<p>The overall increase in movement between flowers, and eventual abandonment of patches due to phantom decoys, could have important ramifications for pollination in patches of flowers and related agricultural and conservation management practices. </p>
<p>Insect pollinated plants rely on insects to move pollen from flower to flower for reproduction, so empty flowers may benefit nearby flowers by increasing pollinator movement, which, in turn, increases the movement of pollen – but only if they hang around the flowers for long enough.</p>
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<p><em>We would like to thank Anahi Castillo Angon and Cristian Gabriel Orlando for their contribution to this research and the writing of this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caitlyn Forster received funding from The Australian Research Council. She is a volunteer for Invertebrates Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eliza Middleton received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with Accounting for Nature, and is a forum member of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tanya Latty receives funding from The Australian Research Council and AgriFutures Australlia. She is affiliated with Invertebrates Australia (conservation organisation) and is president of the Australasian Society for the Study of Animal Behavoiur.</span></em></p>You’re a bee, and your favourite flower is out of nectar. What do you do?Caitlyn Forster, Associate Lecturer, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of SydneyEliza Middleton, Biodiversity Management Officer, University of SydneyTanya Latty, Associate professor, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105342023-09-06T15:47:33Z2023-09-06T15:47:33ZNudge theory: what 15 years of research tells us about its promises and politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544611/original/file-20230824-28-gra2mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C80%2C5793%2C3260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/confident-guy-front-many-doors-different-1408894760">StunningArt/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been 15 years since a particular concept of behavioural science went mainstream. “<a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/nudgeomics/about/what-is-nudge-theory/">Nudge theory</a>”, the notion that our behaviour can be successfully influenced through “soft” interventions, has subsequently appealed to plenty of people seeking to change the way we live. </p>
<p>The 2008 book which set out the idea – <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/56784/nudge-by-richard-h-thaler-cass-r-sunstein/9780141999937">Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness</a> – sold more than 2 million copies. But its influence went way beyond sales figures. </p>
<p>The authors – behavioural economist Richard Thaler and law professor Cass Sunstein – inspired powerful politicians, including former US president <a href="https://behavioralscientist.org/executive-order-formally-establishes-us-nudge-unit/">Barack Obama</a> and former UK prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/nov/12/david-cameron-nudge-unit">David Cameron</a> to set up government teams with the specific remit of incorporating nudge theory into public policy. </p>
<p>These “nudge units” became widespread, with recent research suggesting there are now over <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA18709">200 of them</a> around the world. But while teams of policymakers appear happy to have been taking their “<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nudge-part-1-a-simple-solution-for-littering-organ/id1651876897?i=1000611711937">nudge-pills</a>”, making small changes to our decision-making processes, the success of those carefully designed nudges is by no means universally agreed. </p>
<p>Back in 2008 though, whether or not nudges actually worked was rarely discussed. The book was packed with peer-reviewed studies, and set out an idea that was broad enough for many readers to relate to. It felt intuitive. </p>
<p>Instead, criticism of nudging at the time typically focused on concerns that government nudges <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10603-014-9265-1">undermined individual freedom</a>. The worry was that if nudges could lead to major changes in personal decision-making and be used to influence citizen behaviour, then this created the risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13571510903227064">illegitimate state overreach</a> – maybe even <a href="https://iea.org.uk/blog/a-nudge-towards-totalitarianism-0">totalitarianism</a>.</p>
<p>These days, while some questions remain about individual freedom, they are not as prominent. One reason appears to be a general acceptance that some government influence on citizens and the decisions they make <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4357437">is surely inevitable</a>. But there is also the fact that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a23e808b-e293-4cc0-b077-9168cff135e4">a large amount of evidence</a> questions whether nudges actually work at all. </p>
<p>After 15 years, plenty of nudge studies can now be assessed to get a better sense of whether this seemingly revolutionary idea really delivers.
Behavioural economists undertake this assessment using an approach called “meta-analysis”, which combines multiple studies to get the most reliable data. Last year, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2200300119">one major meta-analysis</a> reported finding no evidence of nudges working. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/nudge-theory-doesnt-work-after-all-says-new-evidence-review-but-it-could-still-have-a-future-187635">This was a big deal</a>. And although the study had its own critics, who say it does not properly <a href="https://behavioralscientist.org/making-sense-of-the-do-nudges-work-debate/">account for context</a>, the analysis also supported <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.3982/ECTA18709">previous evidence</a> of publication bias, suggesting researchers have been cherry picking the “good” nudge studies to publish for years. </p>
<p>Nudge theory has also been undermined elsewhere by doubts raised around the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-016-0021">usefulness of findings</a> in behavioural science and psychology, as well as high-profile scandals involving <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/846cc7a5-12ee-4a44-830e-11ad00f224f9">allegations of data fabrication</a>. </p>
<h2>Pushing back against nudging</h2>
<p>Critics of nudge theory have two key arguments. One is the notion that nudges have small (if any) effects on our behaviour, and are therefore <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12941">ineffective policy tools</a>. </p>
<p>Their second point is that nudge-based acts are open to being used by vested interests to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X22002023">distract policymakers</a> and the public from actually effective solutions – that they put the emphasis on slight changes from individuals instead of more meaningful and effective systemic change.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-richard-thaler-won-the-2017-economics-nobel-prize-85404">Why Richard Thaler won the 2017 economics Nobel Prize</a>
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<p>For instance, nudges that encourage households to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01917.x">reduce their energy consumption</a> may be considered a good idea. But what if this nudge also <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4426034">reduces the political will</a> to pursue more effective (and expensive) policies, such as retrofitting homes or dramatically investing in sources of sustainable energy?</p>
<p>Even supporters of nudge theory have conceded that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/91f2a55b-66b2-4573-af5a-afa0deb16f5f">nudges may have overpromised</a> in the past. A recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01555-3">behavioural science “manifesto”</a> argues that behavioural economists should “be humble” about limits of nudge theory. And in a 2021 updated edition of their <a href="https://www.penguinbookshop.com/book/9780143137009">famous book</a>, Thaler and Sunstein – who never anticipated the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEkfqQAp6wk">phenomenal reach they achieved</a> – argue that nudges are always part of the solution, but <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEkfqQAp6wk">rarely the solution itself</a>. </p>
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<img alt="Barack Obama" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544835/original/file-20230825-21-cvkuma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nudge, nudge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/charlotte-nc-usa-july-5-2016-462060448">Evan El-Amin/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In the political sphere though, nudge theory will probably continue to prosper, as a way of gaining political capital from cheap solutions to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/91f2a55b-66b2-4573-af5a-afa0deb16f5f">difficult problems</a>. For instance, the nudge of automatically enrolling UK workers into pension schemes (they have the right to opt out) has <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/automatic-enrolment-too-successful-nudge-boost-pension-saving">substantially increased</a> the number of people saving for retirement, an ambition of both Labour and Conservative governments. </p>
<p>This policy uses a common type of nudge known as a “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-020-04731-x">default option</a>”, which relies on people’s tendency to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.jenvp.2007.09.004">accept the status quo</a>. Before automatic enrolment, employers were still obliged to provide a pension scheme, but employees had to request access to it. </p>
<p>But even when nudged in this soft, almost passive way, people probably <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12941">aren’t saving enough</a> – mainly because they can’t afford to. Fundamental pension reform or a radical change to wealth distribution is politically challenging and expensive, whereas nudging workers into passive enrolment is not.</p>
<p>Nudges are also less controversial to the electorate than a new ban or mandate. A gentle push towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12457-2">more environmentally friendly behaviour</a> is likely to provoke less backlash among voters than a government ordering people to change the way they do things.</p>
<p>In this sense then, nudges remain useful political tools. They are cheap, and they neither ban nor mandate. And if they don’t work, it takes a while for voters to notice. </p>
<p>So perhaps nudges do not even need to work to continue to have a role in modern society, because politicians will always demand a tool like them for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0e6f1088-6280-11dd-9a1e-000077b07658">their political ends</a>. It is an argument that could nudge nudging along for at least another 15 years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Mills does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The idea of gently tweaking our behaviour still makes political sense.Stuart Mills, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061642023-07-19T12:23:14Z2023-07-19T12:23:14ZJust in time for back-to-school shopping: How retailers can alter customer behavior to encourage more sustainable returns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537504/original/file-20230714-29-iem14i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C0%2C2726%2C1818&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Retail returns have become big business for UPS.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EarnsUPS/9fd54604385d4aa0b1122e018b5323da/photo">AP Photo/Toby Talbot</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back-to-school sales are underway, and people across the country will be shopping online to fill up backpacks, lockers and closets – and they’ll be taking advantage of free returns.</p>
<p>Making it easy for customers to return items at no cost started as a retail strategy to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/05/free-online-shopping-returns-retailer-policy-changes/673975/">entice more people to shop online</a>. But it’s getting expensive, for <a href="https://theconversation.com/inside-the-black-box-of-amazon-returns-206551">both retailers and the planet</a>.</p>
<p>In 2022, retail returns added up to more than <a href="https://nrf.com/research/2022-consumer-returns-retail-industry">US$800 billion in lost sales</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/inside-the-black-box-of-amazon-returns-206551">transportation, labor, and logistics</a> involved raised retailers’ costs even higher. Product returns also increase pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and waste in landfills, where many returned products now end up.</p>
<p>So how can retailers fix this problem and still provide quality customer service?</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=bqBiAJQAAAAJ&hl=en">We conduct</a> <a href="https://www.ivybusiness.iastate.edu/directory/cfaires/">research</a> in reverse logistics, focusing primarily on the intersection of retail returns and customer behavior. Here are some insights that can help <a href="https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/topics/customer-experience/how-retailers-can-minimize-returns-focus-on-convenience-communication-and-personalization">reduce the abuse of free returns</a> and lower costs without losing quality.</p>
<p><iframe id="V7yOA" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/V7yOA/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Nudging: In-store vs. shipped returns</h2>
<p>Where a product is returned makes a difference. Items returned to the store can be restocked an average of 12 to 16 days faster than those that are mailed. Mailed returns also cost companies more: The difference between the most expensive shipped returns and least expensive in-store returns is <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/returning-to-order-improving-returns-management-for-apparel-companies">$5 to $6</a> per item. That adds up quickly.</p>
<p>Studies show that customers may be willing to change their return behavior – <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3890170-moving-the-needle-on-supply-chain-sustainability/">with a little help</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2023/02/23/how-brands-can-nudge-consumers-positive-behavior-change-sustainability">Behavioral nudges</a> are a technique used in decision-making to steer a person toward a specific behavior. Putting candy at eye-level at the grocery store checkout counter to encourage impulse purchases is an example, or making employee participation in a <a href="https://news.uchicago.edu/explainer/what-is-behavioral-economics#nudge">401(k) savings program the default</a> option. Another type of nudge involves <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.06.009">providing more information</a>.</p>
<p>If you’ve ever shopped online and seen statements like “10 out of 10 customers recommend this product” or “Only 2 items left in stock,” you have experienced the use of information to influence your decision. Nudges emphasizing sustainability may also appeal to customers and have a positive impact on return behavior.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man hands a slip of paper to a woman a returns desk at Saks Fifth Avenue." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537505/original/file-20230714-23-j763kq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Returning items to a store can avoid extra transportation, shipping and packaging, saving money and avoiding waste and emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakNewYork/a1f251980fd140dbb26a82fa97746807/photo">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a recent survey, 94% of merchants said customers were concerned about sustainability, according to a <a href="https://happyreturns.com/merchant-survey-2023">report from Happy Returns</a>, a logistics firm that works with retailers.</p>
<p>However, a much lower percentage of customers actually make sustainable return decisions. That suggests that customers do not fully understand the environmental impact of their return choices – and it offers a way for retailers to help.</p>
<p>Our research found that when customers were given information about the environmental impact of the different return options, they were nearly 17 times more likely to choose an in-store return rather than returning an item by mail. Nudges like this offer a simple and inexpensive way for retailers to alter customer behavior in favor of sustainability.</p>
<h2>Picking up returns to speed up the process</h2>
<p>Some customers request to return an item but then wait weeks before mailing it. It’s known as customer procrastination, and it also has a cost. The longer these products remain unprocessed, <a href="https://wwd.com/business-news/business-features/innovation-in-online-returns-why-online-merchants-are-embracing-box-free-returns-as-the-new-default-return-method-1235197019/">the more value they can lose</a>.</p>
<p>High-priced electronics, such as laptops and tablets, have short product life cycles and lose value quickly, sometimes at a rate of 1% per week. Seasonal items, such as back-to-school supplies or winter coats, become more difficult to resell if retailers get them back on shelves after demand has bottomed out. A returned item’s resale value <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-stores-do-with-90-billion-in-merchandise-returns-1518777000">determines its destination</a>: It can end up back on store shelves, sold to liquidators for pennies on the dollar or sent to a landfill.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker carries an Amazon box as another checks over a box and address." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537506/original/file-20230714-17-ha7ae5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Transportation is a large expense for retail returns, for both companies and the planet.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EarnsUPS/fcdaf7a62f184d56bd7ac52aa069d83d/photo">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A home pickup service for time-sensitive returns could reduce delays in a way that is also useful to the customer. A small number of pickup vehicles collecting returns from customers could avoid multiple shipments, <a href="https://chainstoreage.com/survey-returns-cost-online-retailers-21-order-value">reducing total miles traveled</a> and cutting vehicle emissions, while also avoiding the need for each return to be individually packaged.</p>
<p>Our research found that a pickup service could help retailers collect returns faster and reduce product value loss, particularly for high-priced products and products that lose value quickly, such as consumer electronics.</p>
<h2>How to change policies without losing customers</h2>
<p>While several retailers have <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/05/free-online-shopping-returns-retailer-policy-changes/673975/">stopped offering free returns</a> or changed their return policies over the past year, our research suggests that changes affecting all customers might not be the best choice.</p>
<p>Broad policy changes that affect everyone might involve limiting the number of returns per customer, charging a fee for returns or shortening the window for returns. An alternative is a targeted return policy that applies only to people who abuse the system. For example, retailers can restrict free returns for people who repeatedly buy more items than they intend to keep, knowing they can return the rest.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman standing a computer terminal checks boxes on an assembly line." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537507/original/file-20230714-25-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Offering free returns carries a cost for retailers, but ending return policies can also turn off customers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-works-at-a-distrubiton-station-at-the-855-000-square-news-photo/1124819753">Johannes Eisele / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.07.011">We conducted two studies</a> to explore how customers would view changes to a retailer’s return policies.</p>
<p>In the first study, 460 participants were significantly more likely to speak negatively about the retailer – a fictitious company, in this case – when the retailer’s returns policy change applied to everyone and affected everyone equally.</p>
<p>Our follow-up study asked 100 online customers about their thoughts regarding generalized versus targeted policy changes. When the return policy change targeted customers who abused returns, 44% of the participants expressed positive emotions, and only 13% expressed negative emotions.</p>
<p>Those positive emotions included comments like, “I would feel proud of the company for taking action against people who try to cheat the system.” Such responses indicated that participants understood that cheaters were increasing the price paid by everyone. </p>
<p>But when the return policy change applied to everyone, 64% of the participants expressed negative emotions. Nearly half indicated they would speak negatively about the policy change to family and friends, and 42% said they would shop at another store.</p>
<h2>Other ways to help customers make better decisions</h2>
<p>Retailers can also change the online shopping experience before the customer makes a purchase <a href="https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/6-creative-ways-retailers-prevent-returns">to avoid the need for returns</a>.</p>
<p>One way is to obtain detailed <a href="https://www.zenstores.com/tutorials/prevent-returns-your-online-shop/">customer feedback</a> on returns and use that to provide better product descriptions to customers. Another is to avoid incentivizing the wrong behavior. Well-intentioned <a href="https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/6-creative-ways-retailers-prevent-returns">free shipping on orders over a set dollar amount</a> could encourage customers to overpurchase and later return products.</p>
<p>Posting videos of items for sale can help buyers spot problems that photos might hide. <a href="https://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2023/04/13/virtual-fitting-rooms">Virtual fitting rooms</a> that use an avatar of the customer to try on clothes virtually can help customers choose the right size the first time.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that managing retail returns is a <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/returning-to-order-improving-returns-management-for-apparel-companies">difficult task</a>. To make the process more sustainable, retailers need to help customers make choices that limit the need for a return or that minimize the impact of a return on the environment and, of course, the retailer’s bottom line.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Returns cost companies billions of dollars in lost sales. They also generate emissions and packaging waste. Two logistics experts offer some tips from psychology for more sustainable returns.Christopher Faires, Postdoctoral Researcher in Supply Chain Management, Iowa State UniversityRobert Overstreet, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080332023-06-19T15:04:35Z2023-06-19T15:04:35ZConspiracy theories aren’t on the rise – we need to stop panicking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532712/original/file-20230619-17-97g5gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=216%2C108%2C5790%2C3350&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-victoria-australia-january-15-2022-2122884740">Adam Calaitzis/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Several polls in the past couple of years (including from <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tackling-conspiracy-theories">Ipsos</a>, <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/02/08/what-conspiracy-theories-did-people-around-world-b">YouGov</a> and most recently <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/conspiracy-belief-among-the-uk-public.pdf">Savanta</a> on behalf of Kings College Policy Institute and the BBC) have been examining the kinds of conspiratorial beliefs people have. The findings have led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/18/conspiracy-theories-britain-politicians">a lot of concern and discussion</a>.</p>
<p>There are several revealing aspects of these polls. As a researcher, I’m mainly interested in what claims are considered conspiratorial and how these are phrased. </p>
<p>But I’m also interested in the <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/conspiracy-belief-among-the-uk-public.pdf">widespread belief</a> that conspiracy theories are apparently on the rise, thanks to the internet and social media. Is this true and how concerned should we really be about conspiracy theories? </p>
<p>One of the common claims that is presented as conspiratorial that consistently appears in these polls concerns the causes of climate change. In 2008, Ipsos <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/bbc-survey-trust-issues">presented the claim</a> “climate change and global warming is a natural phenomenon that happens from time to time” and 42% of the UK agreed. In 2021, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tackling-conspiracy-theories">this was rephrased</a> as “climate change is not due to human activity” and 14% agreed. </p>
<p>For YouGov, 8% of the UK population in 2021 <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/02/08/what-conspiracy-theories-did-people-around-world-b">agreed that</a> “the idea of man-made global warming is a hoax that was invented to deceive people”. The new Savanta survey found that 18% of the UK population <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/conspiracy-belief-among-the-uk-public.pdf">disagreed with the statement</a> “human-caused climate change is real and is a threat to people and the planet”.</p>
<h2>Framing effects</h2>
<p>Each poll varies considerably in how the claim is phrased, either by explicitly referring to it as a hoax, or as not caused by humans or being natural. But we can also consider the same issue another way. </p>
<p>The UK Savanta survey found that 74% of the UK public agreed that climate change is a threat to the planet. The Ipsos UK survey, meanwhile, found that <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-08/Ipsos%20July%202022%20Attitudes%20to%20climate%20change_020822_PUBLIC.pdf">84% of people</a> in 2022 were concerned about climate change “sometimes referred to as global warming”. </p>
<p>What I’ve demonstrated can be viewed as a common cognitive psychological phenomenon called framing, which can influence how we draw conclusions. For example, imagine being told a meat product is 75% lean or 25% fat. Even though both mean the same thing, depending on what the focus is, the former product <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9831520/">will be viewed more favourably</a>.</p>
<p>The Savanta survey results are a good example, because the same claim “human-caused climate change is real and is a threat to people and the planet” was supported by 74% but also rejected by 18%. </p>
<p>What this raises is the question, is it good that 74% are supportive, or is it bad that 18% reject it? Given that it is typically hard to get 100% agreement, what is an acceptable level of agreement on any one thing?</p>
<p>Clearly, before we panic about any one claim, we should look at the results in both ways – and also in all the ways the topic wasn’t framed. People’s beliefs are complex, and cannot always be captured neatly in a survey.</p>
<p>We should also think deeply about why people believe in a certain conspiracy theory before we dismiss them as crazy, and whether in fact it is a conspiracy, or just scepticism, or actually a valid belief.</p>
<p>To the latter point, one claim of particular interest to me is that the “media or the government adds secret mind-controlling technology to television broadcast signals”. As a US survey <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299316/">recently found</a>, in 2013, 15% agreed with this, and in 2021, 17% agreed. </p>
<p>This may sound shocking, but in many of the studies that I <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2021-90809-001">have recently conducted</a>, when asking people to reveal the ways in which they <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-will-why-people-believe-in-it-even-when-they-think-theyre-being-manipulated-196316">think they are being manipulated</a> (a sort of mind control) in their day to day lives, <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-00115-001">the media features quite heavily</a>.</p>
<p>But, according to my research, there isn’t anything particularly conspiratorial about their views. Priming techniques – using a word or image to change someone’s behaviour without them being conscious of it – are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339621132_Digital_Nudging_Numeric_and_Semantic_Priming_in_E-Commerce">widely used</a> by public and private sectors to influence behaviour. That’s despite the fact that <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33129722/">the evidence for their effectiveness</a> isn’t exactly strong. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Close-up of a male conspiracy theorist in a protective foil cap and glasses debunks myths." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532711/original/file-20230619-15-7i5jsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s complicated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-male-conspiracy-theorist-protective-foil-1999957472">Lysenko Andrii/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The point here is that the claim that mind-control technology is used clearly sounds conspiratorial – it could mean a brain implant. </p>
<p>But if by mind control what is actually meant are psychological techniques such as priming or “<a href="https://theconversation.com/nudges-four-reasons-to-doubt-popular-technique-to-shape-peoples-behaviour-174359">nudging</a>” used to manipulate behaviour, then this is a scientific claim that has spawned thousands of psychological studies. And a survey typically won’t clarify what people take “mind-control” to mean. </p>
<h2>A rise in conspiratorial beliefs?</h2>
<p>Some 58% in the Savanta poll believe conspiracy theories are higher today than 20 years ago. This worry is also reflected in a wealth of <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34248238/">academic surveys</a> conducted on <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36467717/">the role of social media</a> in <a href="https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/stolen-elections-how-conspiracy-beliefs-during-the-2020-american-">propagating conspiracy theories</a>.</p>
<p>So is belief in conspiracy theories on the rise? A recent study <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0270429">tried to answer this</a>. In short, it did not find that there was a significant rise in the magnitude of beliefs in different claims.</p>
<p>The exact same phrasing of the 50 claims was compared in surveys conducted on the US population between 1966 to 2021. On the subject of climate change, 37% agreed in 2013 that global warming was a hoax, in 2021 this dropped to 19% agreement. </p>
<p>For other comparisons, 50% in 1966 agreed that more than one man was involved in the assassination of US President John F. Kennedy, compared with 56% agreed in 2021. When it comes to UFOs, in 1995, 49% agreed that the government is keeping information from the public showing that they are real – and that aliens have visited the Earth. In 2021, 50% agreed. </p>
<p>What we see here is that rates of agreement haven’t fundamentally changed over time, apart for when it comes to climate change, and in this case views that it is a hoax have in fact dropped. This only goes to show that we need to be careful about any moral panic that is attributed to the internet, and especially social media activity <a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-why-it-may-not-necessarily-lead-to-bad-behaviour-199123">making situations worse</a>. </p>
<p>While it might seem intuitive to draw a connection between what happens online and the beliefs that <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/17456916221141344">might motivate behaviour offline</a>, we are still mostly drawing this connection based on correlational rather than causal evidence.</p>
<p>Clearly, belief in conspiracy theories is complex. What this tells us is that we have to be careful about how quickly we reach for panic buttons. </p>
<p>Ultimately, panic can lead to self censoring as any concerns, doubts and scepticism are equated to conspiratorial thinking. This is not a healthy way to go. And it makes it more difficult to reach out to those with violent or seriously concerning views with convincing arguments and evidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magda Osman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fewer and fewer people believe man-made climate change is a hoax.Magda Osman, Principal Research Associate in Basic and Applied Decision Making, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2020592023-04-11T11:24:37Z2023-04-11T11:24:37ZJournalists needs to be more critical of the way governments use ‘nudging’ to change our behaviour – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519567/original/file-20230405-1688-ujwzkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beer-glass-his-hand-illuminated-by-439134271">Oleg Shakirov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Suppose you are in a pub with friends. You drink a few beers, have a good time, and head home. The following morning you realise your headache is milder than usual. You then discover that you were part of an experiment where the glasses at the pub were 25% smaller. </p>
<p>In their <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-03730-000">landmark 2008 book</a>, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness, behavioural economist Richard Thaler and legal scholar Cass Sunstein defined a “nudge” as an intervention “that alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives”. </p>
<p>Imposing higher alcohol taxes is not nudging, because it changes the costs to the drinker. Offering smaller glasses, by contrast, is. It does not forbid alcohol. And since prices are adjusted for glass size, people still only pay for what they consume. </p>
<p>But, as a 2018 <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/add.14228">study</a> led by psychologist Inge Kersbergen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/sifting-the-evidence/2018/may/18/how-smaller-drinks-could-reduce-the-uks-alcohol-consumption">shows</a>, it does encourage less drinking: 30% less, to be precise, when the glasses are a quarter smaller. This, Kersbergen’s team estimated, could lead to 1,400 fewer deaths and 73,000 fewer hospital admissions annually in the UK alone – the very definition of a successful nudge.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/behavioural-insights.htm">200</a> institutions (including the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/content/behaviouralscience/">United Nations</a> and the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/embed">World Bank</a>) and governments (from <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/behavioural-insights-unit/">Australia</a> to <a href="https://b4development.org/about/">Qatar</a>) use nudging to get us to behave in ways that – according to them, at least – are more beneficial.</p>
<p>But the question of who stands to benefit is where nudging courts controversy. If you’d spent the evening drinking out of smaller glasses, you might feel psychologically manipulated – even if, physically, you felt good. </p>
<p>So, given the popularity nudging has gained as a public policy tool, gauging how the media – whose remit is to hold authority to account – evaluates it, then, is crucial. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/puar.13584">My research shows</a> that if governments like to nudge us in all spheres of public life, journalists largely applaud them for doing so. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Someone reaches for a pack of cigarettes from a large shop display." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519569/original/file-20230405-24-7en400.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The warnings on cigarette packs are a good nudge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/meppen-germany-february-27-cigarette-packages-256658419">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How the media views nudges</h2>
<p>The US and the UK are frontrunners in using nudging in policy-making. To gauge how the British and American press evaluate this, from 2008 to 2020, I analysed 443 newspaper articles (opinion pieces, editorials, news articles, reports) from major broadsheets, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Sunday Times, The Guardian and the Financial Times. </p>
<p>Of the 1,186 quotes I identified, 65% scored as positive coverage and 35% as negative. Positive coverage cut across partisan lines. Left-leaning newspapers had more positive than negative quotes (a 1.6 ratio: for every eight positive quotes, there are five negative ones). For rightwing outlets, the distribution was even more skewed (a 2.2 ratio: 11 positive quotes for every five negative ones).</p>
<p>When Thaler was awarded the 2017 Nobel prize for his contributions to behavioural economics, coverage was largely positive. Journalists highlighted nudge initiatives inspired by Thaler’s insights, including <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/richard-thaler-nobel-prize-winner-and-the-man-behind-david-camerons-nudge-agenda-vxhws65mk">text messages</a> sent to university students’ families on how they might help them succeed in their studies and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richard-thaler-nobel-prize-in-economics-winner-2017-behavioural-economics-nudge-theory-a7990291.html">a 2012 British policy</a> that auto-enrolled workers in pensions-saving programmes.</p>
<p>I found that the media often highlighted nudge victories. Writing in the Observer in 2018, journalist Ben Quinn <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/nudge-unit-pushed-way-private-sector-behavioural-insights-team">described</a> some physicians cutting unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions by 3.3%, after they received a letter showing that they prescribe more than their peers. This, to Quinn’s mind, showcased the value of “social norm nudges”.</p>
<p>I also found the media often argued that both citizens and politicians favour nudging. Writing in The New York Times in 2018, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/06/opinion/sunday/behavioral-economics.html">about behavioural economics as a growing trend</a>, marketing expert David Gal noted: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The popularity of such low-cost psychological interventions, or ‘nudges’, under the label of behavioral economics is in part a triumph of marketing. It reflects the widespread perception that behavioral economics combines the cleverness and fun of pop psychology with the rigor and relevance of economics.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jgdj5505y00?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Political faultlines</h2>
<p>I found that when journalists did <a href="https://theconversation.com/nudges-four-reasons-to-doubt-popular-technique-to-shape-peoples-behaviour-174359">criticise nudging</a>, their political leanings became apparent. Early on, critics feared that governments would use nudges to their advantage. In his <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nudge-improving-decisions-about-wealth-and-happiness-by-richard-h-thaler-and-cass-r-sunstein-hbqq9kt3r3p">review</a> of Thaler and Sunstein’s 2008 book, the Sunday Times’s Bryan Appelyard argued that “we are going to be manipulated all the time”. </p>
<p>In a New York Times magazine report from 2010, meanwhile, US political journalist Benjamin Wallace-Wells <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/magazine/16Sunstein-t.html">highlighted</a> that conservatives tended to see something nefarious – “a Big Brother strain” – in behavioural economics. He referred to rightwing political commentator Glenn Beck <a href="https://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/30255/">calling</a> Sunstein “the most dangerous guy out there” because Sunstein’s expertise was, to Beck’s mind, making some things, such as buying a gun, more difficult. </p>
<p>In the UK, the <a href="https://www.bi.team/">Behavioural Insights Team</a> (BIT) – nicknamed the <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/nudge-unit">“Nudge Unit”</a> – was set up in 2010 as part of the UK Cabinet Office, before becoming an independent advisory body in 2014. In October 2017, BIT issued guidance for parents that said that praising children might stunt their progress. It was roundly criticised, with the conservative Scottish Daily Mail <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4979438/Government-asks-parents-not-tell-kids-clever.html">running a piece</a>, under the subhead (in the print version) “Nanny state tells us how to praise kids”.</p>
<p>Progressives, by contrast, attacked nudges for being too laissez-faire and inadequate as a tool for tackling deep-rooted problems such as poverty. As economics reporter Eduardo Porter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/24/business/economy/nudges-arent-enough-to-solve-societys-problems.html">put it</a> in a 2016 New York Times report:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s great to know that there are promising ways to improve society by developing a smarter email or changing the default choice on an application form. But if the question is whether policy makers can cheaply nudge Americans out of destitution onto a path to prosperity, the answer must be no.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even as Thaler received the Nobel prize, The New York Times’s Aaron E Carroll <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/upshot/dont-nudge-me-the-limits-of-behavioral-economics-in-medicine.html">discussed</a> the limits of behavioural economics as made clear by healthcare. Researchers had used several techniques, including what they termed “social support nudges”, to get people to take their pills. All had failed. Carroll said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The problem is that health has so many moving parts. The health care system has even more. Trying to improve any one aspect can make others worse. Behavioural economics may offer us some fascinating theories to test in controlled trials, but we have a long way to go before we can assume it’s a cure for what ails Americans.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It should be noted that many of the media proponents of nudging are actually academic experts. Those critical of the practice, however, get less exposure. </p>
<p>Nudging can be effective. It will not, however, fix all societal ills. And sometimes it can backfire. If the press is to fulfil its crucial role in holding politicians to account, it should be critically assessing how our governments are using this subtle tool to influence our behaviour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The author acknowledges funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO), Grant 016.VIDI.185.017. </span></em></p>Instead of simply applauding nudges, journalists should critically assess when and why governments use this tool.Lars Tummers, Professor of Public Administration and Organizational Science, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978472023-01-31T13:15:07Z2023-01-31T13:15:07ZMedicaid coverage is expiring for millions of Americans – but there’s a proven way to keep many of them insured<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506912/original/file-20230127-14-1rdh23.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C49%2C8179%2C4488&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Research indicates that having a streamlined process makes a big difference.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/female-doctor-doing-a-medical-examination-royalty-free-image/1345288567">mixetto/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Getting everyone who is eligible for free or discounted health insurance to sign up for it requires making it as easy as possible to enroll – and that convenience especially matters for young, healthy and low-income people. Those are the key findings of <a href="http://doi.org/10.3386/w30781">a recent study</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TOts234AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">I conducted</a> with <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/mnwagner">Myles Wagner</a>, an economics Ph.D. student. </p>
<p>We examined the subsidized health insurance program for <a href="https://obamacarefacts.com/romneycare-romneyhealthcare/">low-income Massachusetts residents</a> enacted in 2006 when <a href="https://www.npr.org/2006/04/08/5330854/romneys-mission-massachusetts-health-care">Mitt Romney served as the state’s governor</a>. The Massachusetts program – dubbed RomneyCare – resembled the program created by the Affordable Care Act and <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2011/aug/12/tim-pawlenty/pawlenty-says-obamacare-patterned-after-romneycare/">served as its model</a>. For residents below the poverty line, which then stood at <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/2010-hhs-poverty-guidelines">about US$22,000 for a family of four</a>, coverage cost nothing.</p>
<p>Even when they didn’t have to pay a dime, eligible residents still had to sign up using a two-step process: After applying, they chose a plan among four or five options.</p>
<p>But the program didn’t always work this way. The state government didn’t make beneficiaries choose a plan until 2010. Instead, anyone who qualified but didn’t respond when asked to select one was automatically enrolled in a plan the state picked out. This meant that no one would go without insurance if they forgot to respond or got confused by the rules.</p>
<p>We compared the number and socioecononomic characteristics of residents who enrolled in the program before and after the change, with a control group unaffected by the policy because they had higher incomes and were not eligible for auto-enrollment.</p>
<p>We found that having a streamlined process makes a big difference. With automatic enrollment, 48% more people signed up for coverage each month. This meant one-third more people obtained coverage over the long run, and it reduced the uninsured rate among low-income people eligible for this coverage by about 25%.</p>
<p>A one-step process also had other consequences. Those who were automatically enrolled were especially likely to be young and healthy, with health care costs 44% below average. </p>
<p>They were also more likely to reside in low-income neighborhoods.</p>
<p>Massachusetts ended auto-enrollment in 2010 for budgetary reasons, and it didn’t reinstate it when the state <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/massachusetts-romneycare-health-care-exchange-106362">shifted to an Affordable Care Act market in 2014</a>. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/10-things-to-know-about-the-unwinding-of-the-medicaid-continuous-enrollment-provision">About 5 million to 14 million Americans</a> could soon lose their health insurance coverage through Medicaid – the government-funded U.S. health insurer for low-income Americans.</p>
<p>That’s because once the federal government designated the COVID-19 pandemic a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-4-americans-are-covered-by-medicaid-or-chip-a-program-that-insures-low-income-kids-176424">public health emergency</a>” in March 2020, it <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/15c1f9899b3f203887deba90e3005f5a/Uninsured-Q1-2022-Data-Point-HP-2022-23-08.pdf">changed Medicaid rules</a>.</p>
<p>In exchange for agreeing to <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-maintenance-of-eligibility-moe-requirements-issues-to-watch/">not remove anyone from the program</a>, the states got more funding to run it.</p>
<p>The number of people enrolled soared to <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/10-things-to-know-about-the-unwinding-of-the-medicaid-continuous-enrollment-provision">90.9 million in September 2022</a>, up 28% from February 2020. That’s roughly 1 in 4 of all Americans.</p>
<p>But the government’s <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/10-things-to-know-about-the-unwinding-of-the-medicaid-continuous-enrollment-provision">continuous enrollment policy is slated to expire</a> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/30/biden-administration-plans-to-end-covid-public-health-emergency-on-may-11.html">starting in April</a> and the <a href="https://abc7ny.com/biden-administration-will-end-covid-19-emergencies-on-may-11/12751912/">public health emergency is scheduled to officially end</a> on May 11, 2023.</p>
<p>Unless those whose coverage expires actively sign up for new coverage, they could become uninsured – even if, <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/distribution-of-eligibility-for-aca-coverage-among-the-remaining-uninsured">like many uninsured Americans today</a>, they would qualify for free or discounted coverage if they were to apply <a href="https://www.healthinsurance.org/glossary/health-insurance-exchange/">through an ACA health insurance exchange</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="2LN1J" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2LN1J/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>It’s still unclear how automatic enrollment policies can comply with the ACA’s rules to limit the number of people who will otherwise become uninsured when they lose Medicaid coverage.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1377/forefront.20180501.141197">there are a variety</a> of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/making-aca-enrollment-more-automatic-for-the-newly-unemployed/">different</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2114189">proposals</a> out there. Some states, including <a href="https://www.marylandhealthconnection.gov/easyenrollment/">Maryland</a>, <a href="https://hbex.coveredca.com/data-research/library/CoveredCA-Medicaid-to-Marketplace-AutoenrollmentStrategy-FactSheet-v1.pdf">California</a> and – no surprise – <a href="https://www.masslegalservices.org/content/new-system-updates-online-application-mahealthconnectororg">Massachusetts</a>, are starting to experiment with different approaches.</p>
<p>So once the pandemic-related Medicaid policies end, there will probably be new evidence that suggests which design works best.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Shepard has received research funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Commonwealth Fund, the Arnold Foundation, and Harvard University.</span></em></p>Evidence from Massachusetts suggests that a multistep process discourages enrollment. The findings could help policymakers stave off a sharp decline in coverage when COVID-19 policies change.Mark Shepard, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1924962022-12-25T20:41:27Z2022-12-25T20:41:27ZAre nudges sinister psychological tricks? Or are they useless? Actually they are neither<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497562/original/file-20221128-21-o6h1pw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C979%2C6000%2C3008&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nudging – the idea that simple changes to how a choice is presented can lead people to make better decisions – has been one of the most popular ideas to emerge from economics in the past two decades. </p>
<p>But nudging is now under attack, entangled in the bitter partisan dispute over pandemic policy responses. </p>
<p>Since the idea was popularised in the 2000s, governments – particularly democratic ones – have been enthusiastic about the potential to “nudge” people towards choices that are better for them and society – be it recycling, exercising more, eating more healthily or <a href="https://theconversation.com/gamblers-bet-more-when-in-the-dark-feedback-can-curb-their-online-losses-161904">gambling more responsibly</a>. </p>
<p>Every individual transaction that has a social cost is what economists call an “externality” – a textbook scenario for some form of government intervention into the market.</p>
<p>Nudges promise interventions that are both cheap and benign. They may be as simple as changing the layout of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gamblers-bet-more-when-in-the-dark-feedback-can-curb-their-online-losses-161904">a bill statement</a> or painting racetrack lines to <a href="https://www.trackarena.com/24017/news-hamburgs-underground-turned-into-a-track">challenge you to take the stairs</a> rather than an escalator. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489956/original/file-20221017-25-wjwls0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Track lines at Jungfernstieg station in Hamburg, Germany.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the use of nudges during the COVID pandemic – whether to encourage people to wear face masks or to present statistical information on the effectiveness of vaccines – has made nudges controversial. </p>
<p>Media outlets such as the <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnsw%2Fnsw-government-had-clandestine-nudge-unit-to-influence-public-behaviour-in-pandemic%2Fnews-story%2Fe4f0dcec2b5ef0b6840fad1bf53733aa&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-high-test-score&V21spcbehaviour=append">Daily Telegraph</a> and <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/uk-government-accused-of-using-propagandistic-nudging-during-ccp-virus-pandemic_4204597.html">The Epoch Times</a> have characterised nudges as “psychological tricks” and “manipulation” to “increase compliance”. </p>
<p>Such framing suggests widespread misunderstanding about what nudges are, how they work, and what they can achieve.</p>
<h2>What are nudges?</h2>
<p>To recap, a “nudge” is about making a socially desirable decision easier or more attractive. That is all.</p>
<p>A classic example is organ donation. Most people support it. But few make the effort to “opt in” to donation schemes attached to driver’s licences. Making schemes “opt-out” has increased donor rates <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.1091721">from less than 20% to 98%</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nudge, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489712/original/file-20221014-16-gd1cws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nudge, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yale University Press</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Legal scholar Cass Sunstein and economist Richard Thaler popularised nudge theory with their bestselling 2008 book <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300122237/nudge/">Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness</a>. </p>
<p>They are clear that changing “choice architecture” should never limit options or significantly change incentives to choose any particular option. </p>
<p>In other words, anything that limits free choice is not a nudge:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To count as a mere nudge, the intervention must be easy and cheap to avoid. Nudges are not mandates. Putting fruit at eye level counts as a nudge. Banning junk food does not.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-you-can-be-nudged-to-eat-healthier-recycle-and-make-better-decisions-every-day-122254">Here's how you can be nudged to eat healthier, recycle and make better decisions every day</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rise of behavioural insights units</h2>
<p>This potential – to influence behaviour without limiting individual choice – has led democratic governments to establish dedicated units, drawing on behavioural research, to advise on “choice architecture”.</p>
<p>The United Kingdom was first in 2010, creating a Behavioural Insights Team within the UK Cabinet Office. The United States, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Singapore and Japan <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/nudge-units-where-they-came-and-what-they-can-do">have followed</a>. In 2018 the OECD counted <a href="https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/behavioural-insights.htm">more than 200 institutions</a> globally applying behavioural insights to public policy. </p>
<p>Like other government agencies, these units are publicly accountable. They are not secret and clandestine as some critics have claimed. Indeed, the attempt to portray them as such has required a considerable twisting of facts. </p>
<p>For example, the “secret documents” the Daily Telegraph claimed it needed a Freedom of Information request to “reveal”, were actually available on the website of the <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/behavioural-insights-unit">NSW Behavioural Insights Unit</a>. </p>
<p>You can read how the unit framed choices for youths to wear face masks <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/behavioural-insights-unit/blog/how-to-encourage-young-people-to-wear-face-masks">here</a>, and about its behavioural strategies to increase COVID testing <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/behavioural-insights-unit/blog/improving-responses-to-covid-19">here</a>. </p>
<h2>How well do nudges work?</h2>
<p>Ironically, the attempt to paint nudges as sinister is occurring at the very time the effectiveness of nudges is being hotly debated within academia. </p>
<p>An analysis of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2107346118">more than 200 nudging studies</a> published in December 2021 found the average effect of nudges was “small to medium”. </p>
<p>A subsequent study <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2200300119">published in June 2022</a> was even less positive. It argued the results of the December 2021 paper were due to “publication bias” – with journals being more likely to accept papers reporting the effectiveness of nudges. </p>
<p>Other researchers argue that real interventions tend to be less effective than the experiments academics do in their labs. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3982/ECTA18709">January 2021 analysis</a> of 126 nudge trials in the US involving 23 million people found nudges, on average, increased good choices <a href="https://www.bi.team/press-releases/results-from-nudge-interventions-are-real-and-meaningful-finds-largest-ever-independent-analysis/">from 17.2% to 18.6%</a> – a 1.4 percentage-point effect. This compared with academic studies finding nudges increased good choices by 8.7 percentage points.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nudge-theory-doesnt-work-after-all-says-new-evidence-review-but-it-could-still-have-a-future-187635">Nudge theory doesn't work after all, says new evidence review – but it could still have a future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is it as bad as they say it is?</h2>
<p>To say nudges are useless is to jump the gun. This is a developing practice. Trial and error is part of its development. We may find nudges useless in particular areas or circumstances, but highly effective for some things, or if done in a certain way. </p>
<p>Multiply even small positive effects of low-cost nudges by millions of people and there’s an easy case to make for the value of nudges that only change a small percentage of behaviour. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-lotteries-doughnuts-and-beer-arent-the-right-vaccination-nudges-165325">Why lotteries, doughnuts and beer aren't the right vaccination 'nudges'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Equally, to say nudges are some sinister form of brainwashing is fanciful. There’s absolutely no evidence they can manipulate you to make a choice against your better judgement or own self-interest. </p>
<p>Yes, nudges are designed to influence. They can correctly be described as a form of “libertarian paternalism”. But in essence they are no different to the nudges <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/au/blog/the-athletes-way/202005/4-self-nudging-tricks-make-doing-the-right-thing-easier">we give ourselves</a>, from strategically placed “notes of self”.</p>
<p>Portraying them as manipulative and deceptive seems to have less to do with reality than with the desire to paint particular COVID policies, and government actions more generally, in an unfavourable light. </p>
<p>If a nudge supported a bad policy then, yes, the nudge would be bad. But those
seeking to nudge us to towards that view ought to make their case on the merits of those policies, not on misinformation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Swee-Hoon Chuah served a secondment to the Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government (BETA) in 2019.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meg Elkins and Robert Hoffmann do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The merits of ‘nudging’ have become. entangled in the ideological war over pandemic responses.Meg Elkins, Senior Lecturer with School of Economics, Finance and Marketing and Behavioural Business Lab Member, RMIT UniversityRobert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics, Tasmanian Behavioural Lab, University of TasmaniaSwee-Hoon Chuah, Professor of Behavioural Economics, Tasmanian Behavioural Lab, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1876352022-07-29T14:50:37Z2022-07-29T14:50:37ZNudge theory doesn’t work after all, says new evidence review – but it could still have a future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476253/original/file-20220727-1364-ekc364.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C4837%2C3491&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can nudging help us shop more sustainably?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/interested-latin-american-couple-reading-product-1870235497">BearFotos/Shuttestock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the end of last year (2021), there was lots of excitement <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2107346118">about the first comprehensive analysis of past research</a> on techniques designed to change people’s behaviour (known as “nudging”), confidently showing that they work. This was great news for researchers, but also for governments across the world who have invested in “nudge units” that use such methods.</p>
<p>Nudges <a href="https://theconversation.com/nudges-four-reasons-to-doubt-popular-technique-to-shape-peoples-behaviour-174359">aim to influence people</a> to make better decisions. For example, authorities may set a “better” choice, such as donating your organs, as a default. Or they could make a healthy food option more attractive through labelling.</p>
<p>But new research reviewing this paper – which had looked at at 212 published papers involving more than 2 million participants – and others now warns nudges may not have any effect on behaviour at all. </p>
<p>To understand why, we need to go into some details about statistics, and how experimental findings are analysed and interpreted. Researchers start off with a hypothesis that there is no effect (null hypothesis). They then ask, what is the probability of getting an actual effect by chance?</p>
<p>So, if in my experiment there is a group of people who are exposed to a specific nudge technique, and a control group that isn’t nudged, my starting point is that the two groups won’t differ. If I then find a difference, I use statistics to work out how probable it is that this would have happened by chance alone. This is called the P-value, and the lower it is the better. A big p-value would mean that the differences between the two groups can largely be explained by chance. </p>
<p>The opposite is true for effect sizes. It also important to measure the size of the effect to assess the practical value of an experiment. Imagine I am testing a nudge that is supposed to help obese people reduce their weight, and I observe that people in the nudged group loose a pound over the course of six month. While this difference may be significant (I obtain a low p-value), I might rightly ask whether this effect is big enough for any practical purposes. </p>
<p>So whereas p-values provide us with an indication of how likely an observed difference is by chance alone, effect sizes tell us how big – and therefore how relevant — the effect is.</p>
<p>A good study needs to show a moderate or large effect size, but it also needs to set out how much of it was the result of “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-012-0322-y">publication bias</a>”. This is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nudges-four-reasons-to-doubt-popular-technique-to-shape-peoples-behaviour-174359">cherry-picking of results</a> to show a win for nudge, meaning that studies finding that nudges don’t work aren’t included or even published in the first place. This may be because editors and reviewers at scientific journals want to see findings showing that an experiment worked – it makes for more interesting reading, after all. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People in socially distanced queue for the train." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476254/original/file-20220727-23-z3kd3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nudges were used to encourage social distancing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/three-asian-people-wearing-mask-standing-1680627376">Travelpixs/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The authors of the original 2021 study, which reported a moderate effect size of nudging on behaviour, ruled out publication bias that was severe enough to have a major influence on the reasonable effect size they found. </p>
<h2>Trouble for nudge</h2>
<p>Two things have happened since though. This year, a colleague and I highlighted that, regardless of the 2021 results, there are still <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01973533.2022.2051327">general issues with nudge science</a>. For example, scientists overly rely on certain types of experiments. And they often don’t consider the benefits relative to the actual costs of using nudges, or work out whether nudges are in fact the actual reason for positive effects on behaviour.</p>
<p>Many researchers also started becoming increasingly suspicious about the reported effect size of the 2021 study. Some <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/">called for the paper to be retracted</a> after finding out the data analysed appeared to include studies that had used faked data. </p>
<p>And now a new study, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2200300119">published in PNAS</a>, has re-examined the estimated impact of publication bias in the 2021 study. The authors of the new paper used their own statistical methods and assessed the severity of publication bias as well as its impact on the actual effect size. They showed that the original effect size of all 212 studies wasn’t actually moderate – it was zero.</p>
<p>How bad is all this? From a scientific perspective, this is excellent. Researchers start a process of gathering data to inform general assumptions about the effectiveness of nudges. Other researchers inspect the same data and analyses, and then propose a revision of the conclusions. Everything advances in the way science should. </p>
<p>How bad is this for nudge? Investment in it is huge. Researchers, governments, as well as organisations such as the World health Organisation use nudges as a standard method for behavioural change. So, an enormous burden has been placed on the shoulders of nudgers. This may also have resulted in the serious publication bias, because so many were invested in showing it to work. </p>
<p>Right now, the best science we have is seriously questioning the effectiveness of nudging. But many, including myself, have long known this – spending many years carefully commenting on the various ways research on nudging needs to improve, and have been largely ignored. </p>
<p>That said, efforts to use behavioural interventions need not be abandoned. A better way forward would be to focus on building an evidence base showing which combinations of nudges and other approaches <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01973533.2021.1889553">work together</a>. For example, as I have shown, combinations of nudging methods together with changes in taxation and subsidies have a stronger effect on sustainable consumption than either being implemented alone. </p>
<p>This takes the burden off nudge being solely responsible for behavioural change, especially since alone it doesn’t do much. In fact, how could it? Given how complex human behaviour is, how could one single approach ever hope to change it? There’s not a single example of this being successfully done in history, at least not without impinging on human rights. </p>
<p>As I have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364661320302242">shown before</a>, if we are honest about the possibility of failure, then we can use it to learn what to do better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187635/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ESRC, Research England, EPSRC, British Academy, NIHR</span></em></p>The behavioural technique may not be dead just quite yet.Magda Osman, Principal Research Associate in Basic and Applied Decision Making, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1777752022-03-10T20:23:18Z2022-03-10T20:23:18ZSmoking and pregnancy: financial incentives can double abstinence rates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448084/original/file-20220223-19-jm8yii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">file muv wc</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The adverse effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy are well known. Pregnant women who smoke are at higher risk of miscarriage, fetal death, prematurity and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28403455/">low birth weight</a>. Smoking during pregnancy also affects the health of the child, as it increases the risk of asthma, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20679592/">psychiatric disorders</a>, and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18278059/">obesity</a>.</p>
<p>Even if pregnant women are aware of the health risks, they may continue to smoke. Nicotine replacement therapies, such as patches, appear to be <a href="https://www.cairn.info/traite-d-addictologie--9782257206503-page-882.htm">less effective for pregnant women</a> than in the general smoking population. Other support methods, such as counselling by specialists or cognitive-behavioral therapy, <a href="https://www.cairn.info/traite-d-addictologie--9782257206503.htm">do not work well for pregnant smokers</a>. Thus, <a href="https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/determinants-de-sante/alcool/documents/enquetes-etudes/barometre-sante-2017.-alcool-et-tabac.-consommation-d-alcool-et-de-tabac-pendant-la-grossesse">25% pregnant women smoked at least occasionally</a> (and 22% were daily smokers) in France in 2017.</p>
<p>This long-standing trend is too high given the health risks for the newborns and the mothers. It is therefore necessary to explore other therapeutic avenues to help pregnant smokers quit. Economic theory indicates that a financial reward can lead to a change in health behavior.</p>
<h2>Why would providing financial rewards change a health behavior?</h2>
<p>Although smoking is above all an addiction, smoking cessation, like any other decision, is the result of a trade-off between the costs such as the loss of the satisfaction derived from smoking and efforts required to stop, and the benefits such as the money saved from not buying cigarettes and the perception of health improvement due to smoking cessation. </p>
<p>Providing financial rewards to quitters could compensate for their efforts and loss of satisfaction derived from smoking. The financial rewards would affect the trade-off such that <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/eeeheachp/1-29.htm">the benefits of quitting would outweigh the costs</a>.</p>
<p>Would it then be effective to offer a financial reward to help pregnant women quit smoking? To find out, we set up a randomized trial involving 460 pregnant women in 18 maternity wards in France. Our study, <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-065217.long">published in the <em>British Medical Journal</em></a>, aimed to test the effectiveness of conditional financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnant smokers.</p>
<p>The participants, all in their first trimester of pregnancy, were randomly assigned, into two groups of equal size: a financial incentives group receiving financial incentives conditional on abstinence and a control group that did not. Monthly face-to-face visits were planned that included routine medical and smoking cessation counselling up to the end of the pregnancy. At each visit, the pregnant women met with health care professionals specifically trained for smoking cessation skills.</p>
<p>The participants’ smoking abstinence was assessed by self-report of smoking, and by a test measuring carbon monoxide level in the expired air, a standard measure of smoke exposure. At each visit, participants of the financial incentives group received vouchers whose amount depended on their current abstinence, and on their past abstinence. The more times they were abstinent, the larger was the amount of financial rewards. The maximum amount that could be earned in the study was 520 euros. Each 20 € voucher could be redeemed in many shops (including groceries, childcare equipment, etc.) but they could not be used to purchase tobacco or alcohol.</p>
<p>The financial incentives schedule was specifically designed to encourage continuous abstinence throughout pregnancy, as only continuous abstinence might have a major impact on the newborn’s health.</p>
<h2>Financial incentives doubled the number of pregant women who stopped smoking</h2>
<p>Financial incentives conditional on abstinence helped women quit smoking throughout their pregnancy and improved some major birth characteristics. With no financial incentives, 7.42% of the participants quit smoking throughout their pregnancy. Among those who benefited from financial incentives, this rate reached 16.45%. Hence, financial incentives were associated with doubling continuous smoking abstinence rate. The figure below shows that smoking abstinence was also systematically higher at each medical visit in the group that received financial incentives.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448085/original/file-20220223-23-c0mmm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-065217">BJM</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These results translate into better health outcomes for the newborns. Newborns were less likely to have a low birth weight, a known predictor of perinatal and infant adverse health events. Poor neonatal outcomes (transfer to neonatal unit, convulsion, malformation, and deaths) decreased by 5.3 percentage points between newborns of participants who were in the financial incentives group compared to those in the control group. The intervention had no effect on prematurity.</p>
<h2>Benefits long after pregnancy</h2>
<p>Would public health authorities implement financial incentives into the health care routine of pregnant smokers? Our results show that providing financial incentives conditional on abstinence is effective in increasing smoking cessation rate throughout the pregnancy and improve birth characteristics. But the evaluation of the impact of this measure should not be limited to this period of life. <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/000282802762024520">Healthier newborns</a> may also become <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15721050/">healthier children</a> then <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR860.html">adults</a>.</p>
<p>Before choosing to implement such an unusual policy, public decision-makers may ask themselves how it would be perceived by the general population. We had precisely evaluated its acceptability before carrying out our study, by surveying a representative sample of the French population. More than 50% of respondents were in favor of this type of policy. As other studies from other countries have shown that acceptability of financial incentives increases when proof of effectiveness is provided, we are confident that this policy could be widely accepted in France.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177775/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>How can we help pregnant women quit smoking, for their health and that of their unborn child, when substitutes and other methods seem less effective during this period?Léontine Goldzahl, Professeur Associé, EDHEC Business SchoolFlorence Jusot, Professeure en Sciences Economiques, Université Paris Dauphine – PSLIvan Berlin, MCU-PH, Hôpital Pitié-Salpêtrière (AP-HP) – Département de pharmacologie, Sorbonne Université, Faculté de médecine – CESP-INSERM 1018, Sorbonne UniversitéNoémi Berlin, Chargée de recherche CNRS, laboratoire EconomiX, Université Paris Nanterre – Université Paris LumièresLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1769122022-02-17T17:26:25Z2022-02-17T17:26:25ZHere’s how far people want the government to limit their freedoms for the sake of the planet – new research<p>An <a href="https://kantar.turtl.co/story/public-journal-04/page/3/9">opinion poll</a> carried out just before the 2021 UN climate conference <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-agreed-rules-on-trading-carbon-emissions-but-theyre-fatally-flawed-173922">COP26</a>, found that 79% of UK respondents “would accept stricter rules and environmental regulations” imposed by their governments. And yet 44% “don’t think [they] really need to change [their] habits”. </p>
<p>This might suggest that few people are really willing to make significant lifestyle changes to save the planet. Alternatively, perhaps people simply understand the limited difference that personal behaviour can make in a country where <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/426988/united-kingdom-uk-heating-methods/">87%</a> of home heating systems use gas and flights are significantly <a href="https://www.which.co.uk/news/2021/07/uk-domestic-flights-nearly-50-cheaper-than-the-train-but-six-times-worse-for-carbon/">cheaper</a> than trains. Rather than habit change, these issues require government attention.</p>
<p>In fact, my research at <a href="https://www.creds.ac.uk">CREDS</a> suggests that members of the UK public are willing to have their freedom of choice limited for the sake of the environment.</p>
<p><a href="https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/behaviour-change-and-reaching-net-zero/">Behaviour change</a> is a major focus of UK government climate policy. This approach relies on providing information on sustainability, then counting on the public to make “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/c1201">smarter choices</a>”. But what really prompts such choices? </p>
<p>For example, the high cost of electric vehicles has <a href="https://www.which.co.uk/news/2021/08/high-upfront-costs-for-electric-cars-could-push-more-people-to-petrol/">put many off</a> buying them in the past, but their sales <a href="https://www.justgoev.co.uk/news/new-electric-car-sales-record-september-2021/">rocketed</a> in 2021, when the UK <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/consulting-on-ending-the-sale-of-new-petrol-diesel-and-hybrid-cars-and-vans/outcome/ending-the-sale-of-new-petrol-diesel-and-hybrid-cars-and-vans-government-response">government’s ban</a> on selling fossil-fuelled cars by 2030 was announced. Several of my interviewees stated that they were particularly considering buying EVs in the light of this proposed ban.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-lotteries-doughnuts-and-beer-arent-the-right-vaccination-nudges-165325">Why lotteries, doughnuts and beer aren't the right vaccination 'nudges'</a>
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<p>As I <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/43634/pdf/">suggested</a> to a House of Lords committee recently, an announcement on phasing out gas central heating might have a similar effect. It could push consumers to buy, and producers to manufacture, more electric heating systems.</p>
<p>In the past, other major <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/11058610_Seatbelt_use_attitudes_and_changes_in_legislation_-_An_international_study">behaviour changes</a> that governments have accomplished – like cutting smoking and introducing seatbelts in vehicles – involved introducing initially unpopular regulation, not merely giving advice. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A no-smoking sign in a window" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446759/original/file-20220216-24-lqjl9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To lower smoking rates, the UK government introduced anti-smoking legislation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3660196">Pauline E/Geograph</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the government still relies on consumer choice. A recent report on <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/8742/documents/88647/default/">decarbonising heat</a> in homes concluded that asking households to pay £10,000 or more to replace their home heating systems poses “a major challenge”, one that could be resolved by offering subsidies and imposing bans.</p>
<p>A pattern of avoiding responsibility and regulation is clear here, underlined by the government’s <a href="https://brc.org.uk/news/corporate-affairs/an-overview-of-the-governments-net-zero-strategy/">first principle</a> of its net zero strategy being to “work with the grain of consumer choice” rather than to shape available options.</p>
<h2>Research</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.creds.ac.uk/publications/curbing-excess-high-energy-consumption-and-the-fair-energy-transition/">Our research</a> aimed to ascertain how much of people’s energy consumption it might be <a href="https://www.creds.ac.uk/excess-energy-consumption-is-it-reasonable-to-put-a-limit-on-how-much-energy-we-use/">reasonable</a> to target and trim through government intervention.</p>
<p>When I interviewed people from 30 high energy-consuming households about their lifestyles, many justified their levels of energy use – including owning large houses with multiple appliances and expensive cars and taking up to 60 flights a year – as pursuing the “good life”. </p>
<p>A colleague and I also ran four workshops with people who had different levels of energy consumption. We discussed the fairness, effectiveness and acceptability of four policy interventions to reduce high energy use: rationing, structural change, economic (dis)incentives, and encouraging behaviour change through providing information and advice.</p>
<p>Rationing would involve imposing strict allowances for energy use, miles travelled or trips taken. Structural change means the government would provide low, and remove high, carbon options. And economic measures would change the price of goods and services to help alter consumer decisions.</p>
<p>Although workshop participants did not arrive at a clear consensus, overall people preferred the structural change approach. Economic measures were suggested as a support, and rationing was seen as a last resort. Asking for voluntary behaviour change was seen as only likely to be effective after the consumer environment had already been altered.</p>
<p>In particular, participants felt that restrictions were reasonable to tackle excess, luxury-oriented consumption. Frequent flying for multiple holidays, business travel and excessive car use were identified as fair targets. </p>
<p>However, targeting car use now through congestion charges and road pricing was seen as problematic. As one interviewee commented, “You can’t change people’s behaviour until [alternative] structures are in place.” These structures might include serious government investment in public transport to (ideally) make it free and accessible to all. </p>
<p>Perhaps surprisingly, even some of our high energy-consuming interviewees called for their own flights, expensive cars and driving to be taxed more highly. Others stressed: “If you put a tax on something … people that can afford it can still do it. It just hits the poorer people.” In other words, “If there’s going to be some kind of restriction, it has to be across the board … everyone has to be cut off at the same point.”</p>
<p>Some expressed frustration at consumer freedoms, one saying: “Why are we allowed to buy things that are so poor in their energy ratings in the first place?” And one participant concluded: “We all have to infringe our own liberties in order to make this work, because we’ve been given the freedom: and look where we are.”</p>
<p>Evidently, some are happy to have their own consumer freedoms limited. These findings reflect what policy thinktank <a href="https://demos.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-Consensus.pdf">Demos</a> found when they asked people to prioritise a set of UK climate change committee policies supporting Paris agreement commitments. Between <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/uk-public-backs-carbon-tax-high-flyer-levy-and-heat-pump-grants-study-shows">84% and 96%</a> of participants supported policies including flight levies, carbon taxes, restricting cars in cities and adding speed limits: all requiring strong government action that penalises or limits choices. </p>
<p>Similar findings have emerged from <a href="https://cast.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/01112021-Briefing-10-final.pdf">other</a> UK <a href="https://www.rapidtransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Cambridge-Sustainability-Commission-on-Scaling-behaviour-change-report.pdf">research groups</a>, as well as reflecting results from the UK’s <a href="https://www.climateassembly.uk/report/">Climate Assembly</a>.</p>
<p>Our findings confirm that when the public discuss policy options, they tend to conclude that the government should accept responsibility for imposing system change if they want the “voluntary” behaviour change they expect from the public.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noel Flay Cass receives funding from UK Research and Innovation through the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, grant reference number EP/R 035288/1. He is a member of the Green Party. </span></em></p>Research shows people want government to restrict excess consumption through regulations, not just to rely on citizens to make better choices.Noel Flay Cass, Research Fellow in Energy Demand Behaviour, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1751912022-02-16T14:52:34Z2022-02-16T14:52:34ZHow to nudge homeowners to make their own homes more energy efficient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441382/original/file-20220118-16047-qpfemu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jevanto Productions / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A sharp rise in <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-prices-heres-what-uk-government-can-do-to-cut-household-bills-174901">gas and electricity bills</a> means energy efficiency has never been more topical. The UK desperately needs to better insulate millions of old homes to save energy and reduce emissions, while supporting a transition to low carbon heating like air source heat pumps, yet so far policies have mixed results. The <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/report/green-homes-grant/">Green Homes Grant</a>, for instance, which offered support in these areas reached as little as 5% of its desired targets.</p>
<p>While there are already <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/domestic-private-rented-property-minimum-energy-efficiency-standard-landlord-guidance">energy efficiency regulations</a> for homes that are rented out, the government’s recent <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036226/E02666137_CP_388_Heat_and_Buildings_Accessible.pdf">Heat in Buildings Strategy</a> includes no requirement for people who live in their own homes to improve their energy efficiency. This creates a gap in the policy landscape, since owner-occupiers make up <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945013/2019-20_EHS_Headline_Report.pdf">about two thirds</a> of the UK housing market.</p>
<p>The Heat in Buildings Strategy for “new” technologies such as heat pumps is to try to encourage change at “natural trigger points where possible … such as when heating appliances come to the end of their life or homes are sold”. However, as the strategy points out, boilers last around 15 years and homes are sold on average every 18 years. That means this sort of deployment can be slow, with some technologies taking “more than 30 years to reach near saturation”. When viewed from the perspective of a climate emergency, this seems far too little too late.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two large white boxes with fans on outside of a house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441383/original/file-20220118-27-14gcr63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Air source heat pumps resemble an air conditioning unit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nimur / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This creates a mismatch between <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">decarbonisation timescales</a> and what the government wishes to risk at the next election. If it pushes through the required changes in the required timescale, which is this decade, without taking the public along then it is playing with political fire.</p>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-30/key-findings/trust-politics-and-institutions.aspx">18% of the public</a> trusts politicians, which may explain why the <a href="https://hbr.org/2011/01/the-big-idea-creating-shared-value">government’s strategy</a> is to encourage business to find and then meet the need of the marketplace. In theory, this creates a new messenger for engagement, letting the government effectively pass on responsibility by having private sector firms act as the delivery arm of the state.</p>
<p>Previous policies predominantly took the form of financial incentives such as the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/domestic-renewable-heat-incentive-domestic-rhi">renewable heat incentive</a>, <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/feed-tariffs-fit">feed-in tariffs</a> or the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/green-deal-home-improvement-fund-details-announced">Green Deal Home Improvement Fund</a>, all of which have now been cancelled. The most successful scheme led to 863,177 <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-12/Feed%20in%20Tariff%20%28FIT%29%202020-21%20Annual%20Report.pdf">solar power installations</a> across almost a decade, but even this represents only 5.5% of the UK’s <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945013/2019-20_EHS_Headline_Report.pdf">15.6 million</a> owner-occupied homes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441495/original/file-20220119-23-ghya34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar in Wales: still only a small percentage of households have signed up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wozzie / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From April 2022 a <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/boiler-upgrade-scheme-bus">boiler upgrade scheme</a> will replace the defunct renewable heat incentive, but it continues in the same vein of simply offering funding support: in this case £5,000 towards the predicted installation cost of a heat pump. As such it is not offering any new solutions to replace the old failed policies. This matters because if financial incentives alone worked for this market, then they would have worked by now – and they haven’t.</p>
<h2>Nudging is needed</h2>
<p>Since all the above has failed to deliver the scale required, we need a new approach. This should be a variant of enlightened self-interest, whereby through acting in a self-serving manner to benefit themselves, owner occupiers are ultimately benefiting the greater community.</p>
<p>One method would be if the “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/behavioural-insights-team">nudge unit</a>” – a UK government spin-off properly known as the Behavioural Insights Team – designed a social education and motivation campaign to make home energy efficiency a desirable social norm. This would expand on the team’s <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/48123/2135-behaviour-change-and-energy-use.pdf">original interventions</a>, which included simplified home energy-performance certificates which showed buyers more directly the financial benefits of energy efficiency measures – the property’s real running cost over three years. This was then <a href="https://www.surveyandtest.com/do-epc-ratings-affect-house-prices">linked to research</a> showing that improving the certificate rating meant sellers could charge more for their products, thereby creating desire on both sides of the equation. </p>
<p>This new campaign would aim to empower a sense of agency and tap into the <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/research/energy-environment-and-sustainable-development/fleur-fast-tracking-low-energy-use-retrofit">non-financial motivational drivers</a> of this core older audience. In the case of an older demographic this may be stability, <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/environmental-burden-of-disease-associated-with-inadequate-housing.-summary-report">better long-term health</a> or social peer approval for “doing the right thing”.</p>
<p>The campaign would need to educate and support this social group in understanding that a warmer, more energy efficient home environment would provide these things while also creating a socially positive narrative that by doing so they are helping general society.</p>
<p>Nudging isn’t enough by itself of course. We will still need more funding support and policy levers such as reducing VAT on energy efficiency products and electricity, but we also need people to have a reason to want to make a change.</p>
<p>If we can achieve associating a well-insulated roof or a new heat pump with being smart both for consumers and also positive for society then we may well stimulate the market growth needed across this relatively stagnant housing sector. Who knows … the UK might then hit its targets after all?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175191/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rowlatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The technology exists, but homeowners aren’t being swayed by subsidies.John Rowlatt, PhD Researcher, Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development, De Montfort UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1743592022-01-10T12:50:47Z2022-01-10T12:50:47ZNudges: four reasons to doubt popular technique to shape people’s behaviour<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439661/original/file-20220106-17-1ye16t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C29%2C3946%2C2616&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can food labelling really help us make 'better' choices?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/african-man-holding-choice-milk-yogurt-768413047">AntGor/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Throughout the pandemic, many governments have had to rely on people doing the right thing to reduce the spread of the coronavirus – ranging from social distancing to handwashing. Many enlisted the help of psychologists for advice on how to “nudge” the public to do what was deemed appropriate.</p>
<p>Nudges have been around since the 1940s and originally were referred to as behavioural engineering. They are a set of techniques developed by psychologists to promote “better” behaviour through <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01973533.2017.1356304?casa_token=xjfSuatvXL8AAAAA:LwzUiy4wtR1GkxzOORwsaq4CVWktzekq47WfY3Q78O_ivaT6G6ST-B7DZddors6Pv55oiwOLFGE3Fg">“soft”</a> interventions rather than “hard” ones (mandates, bans, fines). In other words, people aren’t punished if they fail to follow them. The nudges are based on psychological and behavioural economic research into human behaviour and cognition.</p>
<p>The nudges can involve subtle as well as obvious methods. Authorities may set a “better” choice, such as donating your organs, as a <a href="https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10048768/1/Lin_Osman_Harris_Read_2018_JepApp.pdf">default</a> – so people have to opt out of a register rather than opt in. Or they could make a healthy option more attractive through <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01973533.2021.1889553?casa_token=VFoYKm2tgjAAAAAA:i1bAHHVieJM2_bfsxSyIL5OW3mWKCrl17-kb67MpMki6_ab2hkSUkvrWqsSsDYEPnFoev2R_-PYujA">food labelling</a>. </p>
<p>But, despite the soft approach, many people aren’t keen on being nudged. During the pandemic, for example, scientists <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8247580/">examined people’s attitudes</a> to nudging in social and news media in the UK, and discovered that half of the sentiments expressed in social media posts were negative. </p>
<h2>1. Nudges can be limited and fragile</h2>
<p>Informational nudges were common during the pandemic. In response to such campaigns, people said they would wash their hands more – with a 7% increase in <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27496/w27496.pdf">India</a> and a 2% boost in <a href="https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Diminishing-Returns-Nudging-Covid-19-Prevention-Among-Colombian-Young-Adults.pdf">Colombia</a>. In <a href="https://publications.iadb.org/en/are-behaviorally-informed-text-messages-effective-promoting-compliance-covid-19-preventive-measures">Brazil</a>, such nudges increased people’s willingness to wear a mask by 3%.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="image of people sitting on a bench, socially distancing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439663/original/file-20220106-13-1nyiu8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nudges were used to encourage social distancing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kzenon/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So much is made of the power of nudging because because large field studies, involving millions of people and conducted by government-funded behavioural change organisations, and <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27594/w27594.pdf">have reported that they work</a>. Even though the effects are small, when scaled to a population, one to two percentage point increases in positive effects on behaviour may translate into thousands or even millions of changed minds (depending on the country). But this is similar to the level of effects that are achieved in psychological experiments using a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1745691613491271">placebo</a>. The effect sizes are also similar to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804318303999?casa_token=Dl_h73WowTYAAAAA:q5uCxV1d90h4gIMvt6Tb6Yees15-IlO3rKrmL1zJzgIaOtC7HP6b3xxif_dOfDYPiO-_C3D1iDo">statistical noise</a> (random irregularity in data) in scientific studies. </p>
<p>There is also work showing that when compared to hard interventions (for example, <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19485/w19485.pdf">economic incentives</a>) nudges deliver a lower overall benefit over time. Long-term studies into environmental nudges also show that nudge effects are feeble, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030147971630980X?casa_token=CnCDxA-_-B0AAAAA:0RrXbfV--CQk1RhmSrncepT1AMcjkpQ3sDUnPYeiKGSGDehNlKQHh-Y9jfQGEcE-vZIvPBjRifw">don’t last</a> and only work on those already motivated to be pro-environmental. Also, there are several moderating factors that help to explain the fleeting effects of nudging, such as <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/119/1/e2107346118.full.pdf">socioeconomic factors</a>, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01385/full?utm_source=F-AAE&utm_medium=EMLF&utm_campaign=MRK_1365539_69_Psycho_20200630_arts_A">personal motivation to change behaviour</a>, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487018300552?casa_token=2EkISl6oYmMAAAAA:hs7BmyxbZ0G-U8q98ULyCdsnrbuYIOz3b1wF_zl2noGrwfYARAh9eeJe2H_4duNlNxiPofv7-38">the context in which a nudge is introduced</a>. </p>
<p>To be worthwhile, then, the <a href="https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/2077/59896/1/gupea_2077_59896_1.pdf">costs</a> of implementing nudges need to be outweighed by the benefits in behavioural change achieved. Moreover, in evaluting the costs and benefits, the effects of nudging need to be demonstrated to sustain over time, and as yet the jury is out on this. </p>
<h2>2. Nudges can be unethical</h2>
<p>Nudges may also present ethical concerns. For instance, nudging <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/nudgeomics/about/what-is-nudgeomics/#:%7E:text=By%20allowing%20nudges%20to%20be,the%20internal%20locus%20of%20control.&text=A%20physiological%20signal%2C%20such%20as,as%20DNA%2Dbased%20dietary%20recommendations.">is now combined with genetics</a>, dubbed “nudgeomics”, meaning DNA is used to tailor nudges that can improve people’s health. This is so new that there’s little evidence to assess effectiveness. But using someone’s DNA to try to manipulate their behaviour may have implications for insurance purposes, for example. </p>
<p>Nudging may also be aided by artificial intelligence – so-called <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296320305786">smart nudging</a>. Intelligent software algorithms can be used to influence people’s behaviour by targeting <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/24/8788.full.pdf?ref=hvper.com&utm_source=hvper.com&utm_medium=website">emotional</a>, <a href="http://caitlynclabaugh.info/papers/Clabaugh2018_ScienceRobotics_eaat7451.pdf">social</a> and <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/2494091.2494112?casa_token=Qf601AZMKPIAAAAA:QljC_KndVngoGrNFx_8W8ZV3jJeTn-C_pNfYbVeQTyXa0ALVvYWUHabWBMJ6VAOq0U0t12fSbM6fWQ">cognitive processes</a>. We experience this in video games, news recommendation aggregation engines, fitness trackers and tailored advertising – which all try to influence us based on what they know about our behaviour.</p>
<p>We have yet to tackle the basic concerns with the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/3937C29D29B2386FA472B1E07232819D/S2398063X18000052a.pdf/div-class-title-how-autonomy-is-understood-in-discussions-on-the-ethics-of-nudging-div.pdf?casa_token=hw3TrhOb0OcAAAAA:Xm0Z9W3_ltNF1S1OVYqj0jSmxQTOpYJ090roNjIQcAPqay_5ggCBFaMxPxIlhoTWbTGli6AcgA">ethics of nudging in its current form</a>, let alone its expansion into areas with their own ethical issues such as <a href="https://idp.nature.com/authorize/casa?redirect_uri=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0862-5&casa_token=3lYPRAAythgAAAAA:rNlFPGgbi5wijp9wINC1g7noY-BhSm5-BvbyQAryDa9prUCSpGqKtfI5imEziv1NQytVznlZpcOaiEF1zA">genetics</a> and <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=1yT3DwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Liao,+S.+M.+(Ed.).+(2020).+Ethics+of+artificial+intelligence.+Oxford+University+Press&ots=OicS8Fq1GT&sig=c-SVvQacywAIu5kqOEZrAV_wTKg">AI</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Nudges can backfire</h2>
<p>Nudges can fail – and even <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364661320302242?casa_token=ZCxe-hv2rTUAAAAA:cGgH1HMywEXTfKhXOYmMC4jr29YVWSojeOrwHgsIeap0ayZh-bg2bTwzM2By17Dfuao0xszl5pI">backfire</a>. An environmental nudge removing bottled water to try to reduce plastic waste, for example, directly increased <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdfplus/10.2105/AJPH.2015.302593?casa_token=J5r3JDmDZ8UAAAAA:cKchz3hzjo8njvIieJt3Hd44Uz6BRpJ4YTRhAuDasE09kiwVHOIphS5GUzl6sadQhHafiqlbl-CA">sugary drink consumption</a> – resulting in a similar number of discarded bottles as before. </p>
<p>The failure rate of nudging <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804318303999?casa_token=6UvU6YAmTv4AAAAA:_yoTdcywve7wmWhhSdaj1DaaPUxkpO2SHARVOqt4qP_QaeFYv1E6QzHPdswH8Bf3wzmMqbpyWzI">is still unknown</a>, partly because of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/58BFA4668394046C363C041936C6D097/S2398063X18000106a.pdf/div-class-title-nudging-transparent-behavioural-science-and-policy-div.pdf">publication bias</a>, which is not uncommon in psychology – typically only studies of successful nudges are submitted to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/119/1/e2107346118.full.pdf">scientific journals for publication</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of a urinal with a housefly painted onto the ceramic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439662/original/file-20220106-15-dlmdxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Can a housefly painted onto a urinal get men to aim better?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So a lot of cherry picking may be going on. One way to address this is through pre-registering studies before they are run, though this isn’t standard convention yet, <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/x36pz/">and has its own problems</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Nudges lack theoretical backing</h2>
<p>There are no comprehensive theories of <a href="https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2282712/component/file_2289952/content">nudging</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0959354311429996?casa_token=3O3zbUjsVsIAAAAA:VAh7OktzLhYoOitxy1c1whgjk931yzD3s5kMr2-4Uu6vmrs_I_OOSvHvdlnT0w8OnIJQz8c2Nm3a8A">per se</a>. Instead, there are general frameworks that loosely connect work from psychology and behavioural economics to <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/oeconomia/2490">speculative arguments</a> for using public policy interventions. Having a theory <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bjoern-Meder/publication/346452905_Learning_from_Behavioural_Changes_That_Fail/links/5fc765fea6fdcc697bd35a0a/Learning-from-Behavioural-Changes-That-Fail.pdf">is key to predicting and interpreting</a> the psychological and contextual causal factors that account for the successes and failures of nudges.</p>
<p>The public should be more involved in discussions around the use of nudging so that everyone comes to a better understanding of the practical advantages balanced against honest communication of the scientific and ethical issues. </p>
<p>A resolute belief in something despite contrary evidence is nothing more than an act of faith those using behavioural change in public and private policy domains would do well to avoid. Ultimately, claims about the power of nudging need to be balanced against the obvious limitations that still need to be overcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magda Osman receives funding from ESRC, EPSRC, ARC, Wellcome Trust</span></em></p>Can you really nudge people into washing their hands more? The evidence is far from perfect.Magda Osman, Principal Research Associate in Basic and Applied Decision Making, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1653252021-08-15T19:55:47Z2021-08-15T19:55:47ZWhy lotteries, doughnuts and beer aren’t the right vaccination ‘nudges’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415612/original/file-20210811-19-tjlssd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Money, doughnuts and beer. As high-tech and effective as our COVID vaccines are, getting enough people to take them to achieve herd immunity may come down to some very Homer Simpson-esque tools of persuasion.</p>
<p>Across the US, governments and private organisations are trying out <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/from-1-million-lotteries-to-free-beer-do-covid-vaccination-incentives-work1/">carrots</a> to lift flagging vaccination rates. </p>
<p>California, for example, has tried a <a href="https://covid19.ca.gov/vax-for-the-win/">US$116 million incentive program</a> offering US$50 gift cards for every first vaccination and 10 prizes of US$1.5 million. On the other side of the country, New Yorkers have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/28/nyregion/new-york-vaccine-mandate-one-hundred-dollars.html">offered US$100</a> as well as inducements such as the chance win a full university scholarship.</p>
<p>It’s a <a href="https://www.nga.org/center/publications/covid-19-vaccine-incentives/">smörgåsbord</a>
for behavioural researchers to pick over, with lessons for nations such as Australia, which is now at the point of discussing incentive options. These include the federal Opposition’s proposal to <a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-australians-300-to-get-vaccinated-would-be-value-for-money-165520">pay the fully vaccinated A$300</a> and the Grattan Institute’s proposal for a national lottery giving away ten $1 million prizes a week for eight weeks from Melbourne Cup Day to Christmas. </p>
<p>But are these really the right approaches?</p>
<p>Data from the Melbourne Institute shows cash incentives of up $100 would only marginally increase vaccination rates. The researchers aren’t confident $300 will make that much difference. </p>
<p>And while economic research in the past strongly endorses lotteries as an incentive, there are questions about their effectiveness with COVID vaccination rates. An analysis of Ohio’s vaccination lottery, for example, <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781792">found no evidence</a> it was associated with increased rates of adult COVID-19 vaccinations. </p>
<p>While the researchers — from the Boston University School of Medicine — concede their study may be “underpowered”, they do make a strong point that more evidence is needed to support the “widespread and potentially costly adoption” of such incentives. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-survey-results-show-incentives-arent-enough-to-reach-a-80-vaccination-rate-165728">Our survey results show incentives aren't enough to reach a 80% vaccination rate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>According <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronavirusfrontlines/2021/07/02/covid-19-vaccine-lotteries-might-work-for-the-short-term-but-they-could-ultimately-backfire/?sh=6abe76773466">to Joshua Liao</a>, head of the Value & Systems Science Lab at the University of Washington: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Financial incentives can be pragmatic and effective, and good design may help reduce the potential problems with cash prizes. But we should be careful not to confuse short-term effectiveness (more vaccination now) with longer-term goals (greater engagement in vaccination into the future). </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415973/original/file-20210813-14-1w66fvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California governor Gavin Newsom at the California Lottery Headquarters draws numbers for the state’s US$16.5 million vaccine incentive program on June 4 2021. The goal was to lift vaccinations ahead of the planned June 15 end to almost all virus-related restrictions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Kitagaki Jr./The Sacramento Bee/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This warning would seem to apply doubly to vaccination inducements such as <a href="https://fortune.com/2021/06/01/krispy-kreme-free-doughnut-national-donut-day-vaccination-vaccine-card-what-to-know/0">free doughnuts</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/heavy-handed-prime-minister-backs-port-melbourne-pub-s-free-beer-for-jab-promotion-20210709-p58891.html">free beer</a>.
There is a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0256-5">strong relationship</a> between vaccine hesitancy and ideas of purity. As one study participant <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14760584.2018.1541406">put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s about creating a good energy in your life, creating good energy with your relations, with your work and giving yourself good food which comes from the earth, not from a packet. All of those things contribute to health; it’s not just about vaccinating.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Given such views, the problem with gimmicks like doughnuts and beer should be evident. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/incentives-could-boost-vaccine-uptake-in-australia-but-we-need-different-approaches-for-different-groups-161363">Incentives could boost vaccine uptake in Australia. But we need different approaches for different groups</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Making it easy, attractive, social, timely</h2>
<p>So what to do?</p>
<p>This seems the right time to turn to the <a href="https://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/BIT-Publication-EAST_FA_WEB.pdf">four principles</a> identified by the UK’s Behavioural Insights Team for shifting behaviour through “nudges”. </p>
<p>A nudge works differently to an incentive. In the words of nudge theory’s great popularisers, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/690485/nudge-by-richard-h-thaler-and-cass-r-sunstein/">Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein</a>, a nudge is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives. To count as a mere nudge, the intervention must be easy and cheap to avoid. Nudges are not mandates. Putting fruit at eye level counts as a nudge. Banning junk food does not.“ </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Behavioural Insights Team’s <a href="https://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/BIT-Publication-EAST_FA_WEB.pdf">four principles</a>, known the EAST framework, are fairly straightforward. </p>
<p><strong>Make it easy.</strong> A common way to make a behaviour easy is to make it the default. <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/302/5649/1338.summary?casa_token=AQDiXx3bBlwAAAAA:ZRlrzkOzM8LiRaKgAcESHnBfAd6tQomwLtnA9s3apqSvOu1piTQ9mYR17wSyBmgJ0r90nJ-_0d12">Organ donor schemes</a> that require opting out, for example, have dramatically higher participation rate than those requiring donors to opt in.</p>
<p><strong>Make it attractive.</strong> An example is <a href="https://worksthatwork.com/1/urinal-fly">painting flies on urinals</a> to improve males’ aim and reduce cleaning costs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A fly on a urinal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415999/original/file-20210813-23-x9v4zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The best behavioural nudges are easy, attractive, social and timely.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcel Derweduwen/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Make is social.</strong> An example is the nudge hotels give you to reuse your towels, with a message along the lines of: "Most other guests staying at this hotel reuse towels.” </p>
<p><strong>Make it timely.</strong> This involves prompting people when they <a href="https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/43453/1/MomentsofChangeEV0506FinalReportNov2011(2).pdf">are most receptive </a>— such as when moving house to consider change their energy account, or at the beginning of the new year to join a gym.</p>
<h2>The personal approach</h2>
<p>How to apply these principles to the COVID vaccines? One possibility is demonstrated by a large experiment (involving more than 47,000 participants) showing simple messages could nudge people to get an influenza shot. </p>
<p>At the cost of two text messages to patients prior to their next doctor’s appointment, researchers found one message theme — letting the patient know a flu shot was “reserved” for them — increased vaccinations <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/20/e2101165118">by 11% </a>. </p>
<p>These type of personalised approaches won’t necessarily translate to COVID, of course. If someone believes a COVID vaccine is an experimental gene therapy that might change their DNA and render them sterile, there’s probably nothing that can be done to change their opposition. </p>
<p>But key to all nudges is recognising context matters. As the Behavioural Insights Team notes: “Something that works well in one area of policy might not work quite so well in another.” </p>
<p>We need more personalised approaches. Too much of our discussion about vaccine hesitancy has been imagining the problem in rational terms. But perceptions about COVID-19 and vaccines are driven by emotion, not reason. The more we factor that emotion in, the better our responses will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Too much of our discussion about vaccine hesitancy imagines the problem in rational terms. Perceptions about COVID-19 and vaccines are driven by emotion, not reason.Meg Elkins, Senior Lecturer with School of Economics, Finance and Marketing and Behavioural Business Lab Member, RMIT UniversityRobert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics and Chair of Behavioural Business Lab, RMIT UniversitySwee-Hoon Chuah, Professor of Behavioural Economics, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1655342021-08-04T06:58:41Z2021-08-04T06:58:41ZWould a $300 vaccination payment work? There are reasons to doubt it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414486/original/file-20210804-17-md5zxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=910%2C274%2C2609%2C1463&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">photopixel/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the proposed <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/vaccination-incentive">A$300</a> payment to each Australian who is fully vaccinated works, it might be at the expense of getting Australians hooked on incentives, and there are reasons to think it might not not work.</p>
<p>Labor has suggested paying $300 to every Australian who is fully vaccinated by December. The government <a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-australians-300-to-get-fully-vaccinated-would-be-value-for-money-165520">hasn’t ruled out doing it</a> or something like it.</p>
<p>If 20 million Australians took up the offer, it would cost $6 billion.</p>
<p>An alternative would be to emulate the much cheaper US5.6 million “Vax-a-Million” lottery held in the US state of Ohio. But there is some doubt as to whether it worked.</p>
<p>A preliminary analysis comparing vaccination rates in border counties in Ohio and Indiana before and after the announcement found it might have lifted vaccinations by between <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3875021">50,000</a> and 80,000 doses. </p>
<p>Another study found <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781792">no evidence</a> of any effect when other changes that were taking place at the same time were taken into account.</p>
<p>The payment proposed by Labor is many times bigger at A$6 billion, as would be an A$80 million series of <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/">Vaxlotto</a> draws proposed by the Grattan Institute.</p>
<h2>What matters is cost per additional vaccination</h2>
<p>In assessing value for money we would need to do more than work out the cost per vaccination. We would need to work out the cost per <em>additional</em> vaccination.</p>
<p>Then we would need to set that cost against the benefit of lockdowns those extra vaccinations avoided and the lives and healthy years saved.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-australians-300-to-get-vaccinated-would-be-value-for-money-165520">Paying Australians $300 to get vaccinated would be value for money</a>
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<p>While the economic cost of lockdowns is large (the estimate released by the treasury on Tuesday puts the cost of Australia-wide lockdown at <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2021-196731">A$3.2 billion</a> per week) the reduction in the frequency of Australia-wide or partial lockdowns resulting from incentive payments might be small.</p>
<p>The Treasury estimates suggest an increase in the vaccination rate from 65% to 70% of the proportion of the population aged 16+ would cut the number of days of strict lockdowns per quarter from around 40 to 29.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414493/original/file-20210804-21-1vqiafc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Economic Impact Analysis: National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID 19 response.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2021-196731">Australian Treasury</a></span>
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<p>Even if effective, the incentive payments would create expectations. Australians might come to expect (or demand) them in order to get booster shots.</p>
<p>Unless the payments are made retrospective to everyone who has been vaccinated (something both Labor and the Grattan Institute are proposing) they could encourage Australians to delay signing up until they know what’s on offer.</p>
<h2>Australians might wait til they know what’s on offer</h2>
<p>And they could encourage a mentality of compensating Australians who are reluctant to make sacrifices in the national interest. The government’s emissions reduction payments are rightly seen as having this defect, as was the award of free tradable permits under Labor’s emissions reductions scheme.</p>
<p>Sticks, along the lines of denying access to “vaccine passports”, might be more effective than carrots, and they would create fewer expectations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/national-cabinets-plan-out-of-covid-aims-too-low-on-vaccinations-and-leaves-crucial-questions-unanswered-165447">National Cabinet's plan out of COVID aims too low on vaccinations and leaves crucial questions unanswered</a>
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<p>The best approach would be for the government to get its own house in order by ensuring adequate vaccine and booster supply and delivering consistent messages.</p>
<p>On Tuesday General Frewen, in charge of the COVID taskforce, said an incentive payment wasn’t needed “right now”. If other things are in place, it mightn’t be needed at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Crosby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is bad practice to compensate people who choose not to do the right thing, and it can create expectations.Mark Crosby, Professor, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619042021-07-30T03:06:26Z2021-07-30T03:06:26ZGamblers bet more when in the dark: feedback can curb their online losses<p>Online wagering is the fastest-growing segment of gambling in Australia. It’s a trend of particular concern because losing money through online brokering and betting apps is associated with higher rates of gambling-related harm than other types of <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/agrc/publications/national-consumer-protection-framework-online-wagering">gambling</a>.</p>
<p>These apps provide the ability to win and lose money anywhere, anytime — and their popularity has been exacerbated by COVID-19 lockdowns. </p>
<p>A survey of <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/agrc/publications/gambling-australia-during-covid-19">2,000 gamblers</a> by the Australian Gambling Research Centre in mid-2020 found the proportion of gamblers doing so four or more times a week increased from 23% to 32%. Among the biggest online gamblers — men aged 18 to 34 — median spending climbed from A$687 to A$1,075 a month.</p>
<p>Whether in life, the stock market or at the horse races, most of us are notoriously bad at assessing the real odds of good or bad things happening. </p>
<p>For example, we fear dying in a plane crash (the odds of which <a href="https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/">are so small</a> the US National Safety Council doesn’t even provide a calculation) far more than a car crash (a lifetime chance of about 1 in 107).</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-our-obsession-with-happy-endings-can-lead-to-bad-decisions-148393">Why our obsession with happy endings can lead to bad decisions</a>
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<p>Gamblers underestimate their chance of losing and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2827449/">overestimate the odds of winning</a>. This is despite the odds in games they are playing being precisely calibrated to ensure the house always wins in the long run. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb puts it in his book <a href="https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/">Fooled by Randomness</a>, it is “not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive”.</p>
<p>How to inject more reality into these beliefs? One simple tool is feedback.</p>
<p>Feedback is crucial for all learning. When it’s timely, clear and targeted, it can alleviate many of the cognitive biases that cloud decision-making. </p>
<p>For gamblers the biggest bias is that they remember their wins more than losses — known as selective recall. </p>
<p>Feedback that clearly shows them their losses can counteract this. This is, no doubt, why many online wagering service providers don’t give feedback to their customers at all. Those that do tend to use “activity statements” that present a long list of transactions that are often hard to navigate and so don’t help gamblers appreciate just how well — or more likely poorly — they are doing. </p>
<p>Making gaming companies provide such feedback in a clear, comprehensible form is something that policy makers should put high on their reform list. </p>
<h2>How to improve feedback</h2>
<p>To find the best solution to this problem, the federal Department of Social Services commissioned the Australian government’s <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/">Behavioural Economics Team</a> (BETA) to trial feedback online gamblers get from their wagering activities. We provided advice on the trial’s design and implementation. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/projects/better-choices-online-wagering-report_0.pdf">trial tested ways</a> to let consumers see at a glance how much they had spent, won, lost and their overall net profit or loss from their bets. These numbers were displayed in an “activity statement”, presented in two formats — one as a table, similar to a bank statement, the other using more graphic elements. Below shows the design of the graphic statement.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Design elements in the 'graphic' activity statement." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412837/original/file-20210723-15-12aqsw7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Design elements in the ‘graphic’ activity statement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/projects/better-choices-online-wagering-report_0.pdf">Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<hr>
<p>BETA tested these statements in an experiment involving about 1,500 participants in a virtual horse-race betting game. </p>
<p>Each participant was given “lab dollars” (rather than real money) to bet on a series of races in blocks. Some were randomly chosen to get one or other of the activity statements after each block of races. Others received no statement. </p>
<p>On average, those who did not see a statement bet $368. Those who saw the “table” statement bet $350 (about 5% less). Those who saw the “graphic” statement bet $340 (about 7.5% less).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designed-to-deceive-how-gambling-distorts-reality-and-hooks-your-brain-91052">Designed to deceive: How gambling distorts reality and hooks your brain</a>
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<h2>Real-world trials needed</h2>
<p>These reductions may seem relatively minor but they are still promising. The majority of participants said they would use a summary statement like the ones in the experiment if they were available on real apps. Results also suggested participants with poor financial literacy benefited the most from receiving the feedback statements. </p>
<p>Whether the same results would be achieved in real life is hard to say. Though many participants rated the experiment as at least somewhat like real-life gambling, there are certainly differences between experimental trials and actual online wagering apps, where there can be higher stakes and longer gambling times. This might lead to larger or smaller effects. To answer that will require real-world trials on real apps. </p>
<p>But such trials are definitely worth a shot. </p>
<p>With the right kind of feedback to help us learn, our decisions can improve. The simple summary activity statements in the BETA trial make us optimistic that even in the potentially damaging world of online wagering people can learn to make more informed choices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Newell receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Academic Advisory panel of the Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government (BETA) and provided advice on the trial described in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Swee-Hoon Chuah was on secondment to the Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government (BETA) when she worked on the design of the trial described in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Slonim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How to inject more reality into gamblers’ overestimation of their chances of winning? One simple tool is feedback.Ben Newell, Professor of Cognitive Psychology, UNSW SydneyRobert Slonim, Professor of Economics, University of Technology SydneySwee-Hoon Chuah, Professor of Behavioural Economics, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1626252021-06-14T13:07:03Z2021-06-14T13:07:03ZThe Klarna conundrum: why treating buy-now-pay-later apps like banks will not protect consumers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405913/original/file-20210611-15-1yi7ob0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Buy or bye?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/barcelona-spain-july-14-2020-klarna-1776038513">Sulastri Sulastri</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whether you use Klarna all the time or have barely heard of it, it’s time to start paying attention: the buy-now-pay-later app has just become the biggest private fintech company in Europe. Klarna <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9f73b352-723f-471b-b098-5f090279b5bb">has completed</a> a new round of fundraising, valuing it at US$46 billion (£33 billion). That’s four times what it was worth <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c52d466b-40c2-4114-bfed-20dc54c8d97c">last September</a>, and on a par with fellow Swedish tech giant <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/">Spotify</a>. </p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/the-klarna-conundrum-why-treating-buy-now-pay-later-apps-like-banks-will-not-protect-consumers-162625&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.klarna.com/uk/smoooth/">Klarna offers</a> interest-free credit on purchases with participating retailers, including Decathlon, Desigual, JD Sports and Oasis. It allows shoppers to delay payment, or split larger purchases into manageable sums, and does not perform traditional credit checks, opting for a more permissive “<a href="https://www.klarna.com/uk/smoooth/">soft search</a>”. Retailers cover the cost of the interest as if it was a sales discount. </p>
<p>Klarna operates in western Europe, Australia and the US, and has exploded in popularity during the pandemic. It <a href="https://www.klarna.com/uk/business/reach-our-shoppers/">claims to have</a> 90 million customers, including 13 million in the UK, and has numerous rivals such as <a href="https://www.clearpay.co.uk/en-GB">Clearpay/Afterpay</a>, <a href="https://www.affirm.com/">Affirm</a> and <a href="https://sezzle.com/">Sezzle</a>. Traditional retailers like M&S and John Lewis are <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-9342889/John-Lewis-M-S-launch-buy-pay-later-schemes.html">also reported</a> to be looking at entering the fray. </p>
<p>Such offerings are controversial, however. <a href="https://www.money.co.uk/guides/generation-debt-trap">Critics allege</a> such schemes encourage overspending and can <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjdwj3/what-happens-if-you-dont-pay-klarna">potentially ruin</a> customers’ credit histories if they fail to keep up on payments. Many <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/jan/12/mps-warn-buy-now-pay-later-firms-could-be-the-next-wonga">see parallels</a> between these schemes and notorious “pay day lenders” from years gone by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51303908">such as Wonga.com</a>. </p>
<p>Four in ten customers in the UK who have used these apps in the last 12 months <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56841948">are reportedly struggling</a> to repay. A quarter of consumers reported that they regretted using these platforms, with many saying they cannot afford repayments or are spending more than they expected. Similarly, <a href="https://www.yourmoney.com/credit-cards-loans/buy-now-pay-later-users-struggling-to-pay-back-debts/">Comparethemarket.com reported</a> earlier this year that one fifth of users couldn’t repay Christmas spending without taking on more debt. </p>
<p>In the UK, the concerns prompted <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/corporate/woolard-review-report.pdf">a review</a> published in February by Christopher Woolard, formerly of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). As a result, the FCA is now subjecting these operators to the same regulations as more traditional creditors, requiring things like affordability checks and making sure customers are treated fairly. </p>
<p>Some might <a href="https://www.klarna.com/uk/blog/the-time-is-right-for-regulation/">argue that</a> this solves the problem, but I disagree. Insights from behavioural psychology can shed light on this, and seemingly dusty debates from ancient Greek philosophy reveal why it’s wrong. </p>
<h2>The psychological risks</h2>
<p>Klarna claims to offer a “healthier, simpler and smarter alternative to credit cards”. It primarily targets millennials, with an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/oct/03/klarna-debt-buy-now-pay-later-fees-interest">average customer age</a> of 33. <a href="https://www.klarna.com/uk/">Marketing material</a> presents the app as the choice of the savvy shopper, with a clean wholesome aesthetic, reminiscent of a Scandi-style ad agency or hipster café menu.</p>
<p>Under FCA regulation, such lenders will be treated like other financial services targeting millennials such as <a href="https://www.starlingbank.com/">Starling Bank</a> or <a href="https://monzo.com/">Monzo</a>. So why isn’t it a case of problem solved?</p>
<p>By offering goods immediately, and delaying the pain of parting with any money, buy-now-pay-later lenders exploit the human tendency to undervalue future losses and overvalue present satisfaction – known as present bias. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.1771">Research shows</a> that this bias increases in response to instability and stress, raising the worry that such services disproportionately target consumers who are already vulnerable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman looking bored on her phone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405953/original/file-20210611-13-6saxjt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vulnerable customers may be most at risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bored-young-asian-woman-looking-disappointed-1896939895">kitzcorner</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You could argue that credit cards also do this, but buy-now-pay-later lenders operate without hard credit checks, and go about this in an especially concerning manner. The service is offered at the online checkout, and often set by the retail partner as the <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-9227501/Buy-pay-later-Dont-let-shoppers-sign-default-MPs-say.html">default payment option</a>. As Nobel prize-winning economists Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein argue in their influential book Nudge, altering defaults is <a href="https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/default-optionsetting/">particularly effective</a> at changing behaviour. </p>
<p>Lenders primarily focus on consumer goods such as clothing and cosmetics, which are typically the subject of impulse buys. Focusing on products related to physical appearance, and targeting a particular age group, could shift social norms regarding consumption within the demographic, making higher value clothing items the norm. Once established, such norms are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jcr/article/35/3/472/1856257">difficult to avoid</a>.</p>
<p>These lenders also take advantage of “<a href="http://www.albacharia.ma/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/32051/statusquo%20bias.pdf?sequence=1">loss aversion</a>” – the universal human tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. They do this by <a href="https://www.size.co.uk/page/klarna/">promoting their services</a> as a way for online shoppers to order multiple items and then return those they don’t like. Because of the bias, shoppers <a href="https://francis-press.com/uploads/papers/tpwXpk6X2a0ajYkJUIHbdGYxt8kmjWOwCLNSHdya.pdf">may not</a> return products once they have them at home – even if that was their original intention. </p>
<h2>Thank you, Aristotle</h2>
<p>One might say these strategies manipulate customers. Yet one person’s manipulation is another’s persuasion, and all commercial businesses employ persuasive strategies to encourage customers to spend. </p>
<p>Ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle and his followers can help us draw a meaningful distinction between persuasion and manipulation. In a debate with the Sophists (specialists in the art of persuasion), the <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199338207.001.0001/acprof-9780199338207-chapter-4">Aristotelians argued</a> that the difference between manipulation and other persuasive strategies is that it bypasses or subverts the target’s rational capacities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Statue of Aristotle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405956/original/file-20210611-17-s22efv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aristotle knew a thing or two about manipulation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/statue-aristotle-great-greek-philosopher-421724455">Ververidis Vasilis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On that rationale, buy-now-pay-later apps are arguably manipulative as they rely on our irrational psychological biases. The concern is therefore less that they encourage us to spend, but how they do it. Some might argue that manipulation is everywhere, especially in advertising, but that doesn’t make it right. This is an ethical issue that simply classifying Klarna as a bank won’t solve.</p>
<p>What, then, is to be done? An outright ban would unfairly impact responsible users of the service. What is needed is regulation sensitive to the unique nature of these lenders, their service and the risks. It needs to include a duty to inform customers of the psychological biases that these services take advantage of (unwittingly or otherwise), to help consumers to make rational financial decisions. Apps would therefore need to point, for example, to the risks of consumers being tempted to keep more items once they have been bought, and the risks of default payment options. </p>
<p>Alongside this, we need a new professional body dedicated to overseeing this form of lending. It would need regulatory powers, and a commitment to act in the public interest enshrined in a code of conduct reflecting the unique ethical risks involved.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Hobbs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Apps like Klarna, Clearpay and Sezzle have rocketed in popularity during the pandemic.Joshua Hobbs, Lecturer and Consultant in Applied Ethics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1605912021-05-17T12:28:19Z2021-05-17T12:28:19ZFree beer, doughnuts and a $1 million lottery – how vaccine incentives and other behavioral tools are helping the US reach herd immunity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404589/original/file-20210604-10003-ymqftm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=103%2C17%2C2892%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The maker of Bud Light says it will give all Americans over 21 a free beer if the U.S. reaches Biden's 70% vaccination goal.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bud-light-beer-is-poured-from-the-tap-at-a-bar-on-october-9-news-photo/492018600">Andrew Burton/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A growing number of states, cities and companies <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-05-07/states-cities-and-companies-offer-incentives-to-get-covid-19-vaccine">are offering incentives to encourage people</a> to get vaccinated. And the sweeteners keep getting bigger and better.</p>
<p>New Jersey, for example, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/new-jersey-to-give-free-beer-to-covid-vaccine-recipients.html">is picking up the tab for a free beer</a> for those who can prove they got a shot. <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-md-vaccine-state-employees-20210503-4axlsdqnhzba7lylog3cplqml4-story.html">Maryland is offering state employees US$100</a>, while Lancaster, California, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/california-mayor-offers-scholarship-raffle-vaccinated-teens/story?id=77530266">is trying to encourage teens</a> to get inoculated by entering their names in a raffle for college scholarships worth up to $10,000. Not to be outdone, Ohio said <a href="https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/resources/news-releases-news-you-can-use/covid-19-update-05-12-21">it is creating a lottery</a> with prizes of up to a full four-year scholarship for newly vaccinated teens and $1 million for adults; several winners <a href="https://www.wtap.com/2021/06/03/ohio-lottery-announces-2nd-vax-a-million-incentive-winners/">have already been announced</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, companies <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/us/covid-vaccine-incentives/index.html">are offering everything</a> from paid time off and gift cards to <a href="https://www.krispykreme.com/promos/vaccineoffer">doughnuts</a> and <a href="https://www.shakeshack.com/2021/05/12/nyc-get-vaxxed-get-shack/">a burger and french fries</a>. And on June 2, Anheuser-Busch InBev <a href="https://www.anheuser-busch.com/newsroom/2021/06/anheuser-busch-teams-up-with-the-white-house.html">promised all Americans</a> age 21 and up a free beer if the U.S. reaches President Joe Biden’s goal of giving 70% of adults one shot by July 4. </p>
<p>Of course the big question is, will any of this work? Early reports suggest <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-04/bribing-people-to-get-inoculated-just-might-be-working-in-u-s?sref=Hjm5biAW">at least some of the incentives are in fact helping</a>, particularly among younger people. </p>
<p>The stakes couldn’t be higher. Health officials say <a href="https://theconversation.com/herd-immunity-appears-unlikely-for-covid-19-but-a-new-near-normal-life-may-return-the-fall-of-2021-160228">herd immunity is critical</a> to ending the pandemic, and that means having anywhere from 60% to 90% of a given population vaccinated, including children. But recent surveys <a href="https://khn.org/news/article/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-drops-among-americans-new-kff-survey-shows/">suggest more than one-third of adults</a> are at least reluctant to get the vaccine. </p>
<p>While behavioral economists generally study people’s decisions and the effect of incentives on behavior, my research at the <a href="http://label-laboratory.org">Los Angeles Behavioral Economics Laboratory</a> focuses more closely on why they make those decisions. I believe incentives can work, but there are two other important tools in policymakers’ behavioral toolkits as well. </p>
<h2>How we make decisions</h2>
<p>Decision-making is guided by whether people perceive an option as rewarding or displeasing. </p>
<p>We evaluate decisions based on how we encode and recollect our own personal experiences, how costly we feel it is to choose one path or another and how we process the information around us. In addition, the different communities we live in may reinforce certain messages over others – as evidenced by the <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker">uneven vaccination rates across the country</a>. </p>
<p>The intention to get vaccinated may be influenced by factors including <a href="https://healthpolicy.usc.edu/evidence-base/education-is-now-a-bigger-factor-than-race-in-desire-for-covid-19-vaccine/">education level</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/christian-nationalism-is-a-barrier-to-mass-vaccination-against-covid-19-158023">religious beliefs</a> or <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/3/21/22342184/democrats-republicans-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-polls">political affiliation</a>.</p>
<p>Some of the reasons people give for not wanting to get vaccinated can probably be addressed, while others may be insurmountable. But to induce people to make decisions that they are reluctant to make, one needs to shift their motivations. </p>
<h2>Giving people an incentive</h2>
<p>Economic incentives are one way to do that. </p>
<p>Economic incentives can make a decision more pleasant by offering rewards or lowering costs. Recent examples of efforts to make getting vaccinated more rewarding include offering <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/26/world/west-virginia-vaccine-savings-bonds.html?searchResultPosition=1">savings bonds</a>, <a href="https://corporate.target.com/article/2021/05/vaccine-coupon">coupons</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-governor-says-yankees-mets-give-tickets-fans-who-get-vaccinated-their-2021-05-05/">tickets for baseball games</a> and <a href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/23/covid-vaccine-freebies-card-cdc-krispy-kreme-donuts-free-weed-marijuana-cannabis-food-uber-lyft-rides-running-list-discounts/">free items in shops</a>. </p>
<p>These incentives target people who think that they do not need a COVID-19 vaccine, who usually do not get vaccinated for nonideological reasons, or those who find it inconvenient. </p>
<p>Recent surveys suggest such tactics could be successful. One recent poll found that 47% of people who want to “wait and see” about the vaccines said <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-april-2021/">getting paid time off from work to get a shot would make them more likely</a> to do so. And 39% said a financial incentive of $200 would do the trick. </p>
<p>A problem with states offering cash payments or lottery winnings is that people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.27121">may interpret them as a signal</a> that the vaccine is dangerous, perhaps reinforcing their own beliefs. Research also suggests that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2009.08.001">perks may be more effective</a> than cash and may be a good alternative for both states and companies. </p>
<h2>News you can use</h2>
<p>But incentives aren’t the only way governments can get people to change their minds.</p>
<p>Information campaigns are an attractive alternative. They aim to shift beliefs and opinions by providing knowledge and awareness about some elements of the decision a person may have missed. This includes disclosing the results of clinical trials or <a href="https://www.childrenshospital.org/conditions-and-treatments/conditions/c/coronavirus/vaccine">explaining how mRNA vaccines work on the 12-to-15-year-olds who are now eligible</a>. </p>
<p>People who fear that clinical trials have been rushed and are still hesitant <a href="https://khn.org/news/article/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-drops-among-americans-new-kff-survey-shows/">might respond favorably to information campaigns</a> demonstrating the effects of the vaccines on the U.S. population and elsewhere. These campaigns could also be combined with incentives, such as inviting people to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.04.018">watch informational videos and then rewarding them with credits</a> that they can use at local stores.</p>
<p>This type of motivational push is least likely to work with those who <a href="https://www.apa.org/monitor/2017/05/alternative-facts">do not trust sources of information that contradict their opinions</a> or whose opposition to the vaccine is ideological. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A New York police office bites into a Krispy Kreme doughnut while holding a box of doughnuts as other officers and Krispy Kreme employees mingle in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=52%2C94%2C3442%2C2158&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400906/original/file-20210516-13-1wk3ylt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Krispy Kreme is giving away doughnuts to people who got vaccinated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/KrispyKremeDoughnutDrop/4d32ad331e414d94ab35fa7e4a30e9aa/photo?Query=Krispy%20Kreme%20donut&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=83&currentItemNo=37">Loren Wohl/AP Images for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A little nudge</h2>
<p>If incentives and offering information don’t work, another option is the nudge, a <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300122237/nudge">term popularized</a> by behavioral economist Richard Thaler and legal scholar Cass Sunstein.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/nudge/">Nudges use positive reinforcement</a> or indirect suggestions to influence behavior, such as by taking advantage of peer pressure or by making a certain choice easier for people to adopt. Research shows they can be very effective. For example, requiring people to opt out of a company 401(k) plan rather than opt in <a href="https://money.com/thaler-nobel-economist-retirement-savings-nudge/">led to a substantial increase in the number of people saving for retirement</a>.</p>
<p>Many people are already nudging friends and colleagues in their social networks to get vaccinated by <a href="https://www.publicradiotulsa.org/post/post-vaccine-happy-dance-not-just-showing#stream/0">posting pictures of themselves on Twitter and Facebook</a> getting a shot, celebrating or holding their vaccination cards. Policymakers could similarly promote vaccination by demonstrating that others in the same community already got a shot. </p>
<p>Governments could also make it easier to get a shot by doing things like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/nyregion/nyc-vaccine-subway.html">adding vaccine sites at subway stations</a>. </p>
<p>Nudges are appealing because they do not cost as much as economic incentives. They also can help <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08870446.2017.1385786">change habits, and they sometimes have persistent effects</a>. However, nudges work best if people agree with the end outcome. </p>
<h2>Persuading the persuadable</h2>
<p>There is little chance incentives will persuade people who have set their minds against the vaccine or whose objections are based on <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251605">conspiracy theories</a>. Because it is in their interest to promote these views, or because they are convinced that they are right, they will resist economic incentives, disregard information campaigns and refuse to be nudged in a direction opposite to their beliefs. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>However, there seems to be hope to persuade many of the hesitant or reluctant. A <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/5/5/22419281/covid-19-vaccines-herd-immunity-hesitancy-anti-vaxxers">recent survey</a> of people in these categories revealed that about 20% of respondents would get vaccinated after people they know did. </p>
<p>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently offered another type of motivation when it said that <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html">vaccinated people could go mask-free</a> in most settings, including indoors. Another recent poll suggested this may be effective with Republicans, who were significantly more likely to be willing to get a shot if it meant <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/upshot/vaccine-incentive-experiment.html">they no longer had to wear a mask</a>. </p>
<p>I believe a combination of incentives and other motivations stands a good chance of helping the U.S. reach herd immunity and ultimately end the pandemic. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated on June 4, 2021, to add details about Anheuser-Busch InBev’s beer giveaway and a report on the effectiveness of incentives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isabelle Brocas receives funding from the National Science Foundation. She is affiliated with the Center for Economic Policy Research (London). </span></em></p>Governments and companies are using incentives in hopes of getting more Americans to get a COVID-19 shot. A behavioral economist explains how they work.Isabelle Brocas, Professor of Economics, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1541162021-01-28T18:39:47Z2021-01-28T18:39:47ZContactless payment limit: raising it to £100 could push more people into debt<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381073/original/file-20210128-15-c8k9cy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=212%2C22%2C7240%2C4938&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cashier-hand-holding-credit-card-reader-1754539082">Rido/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recognition of our changing spending behaviour during the pandemic, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has announced plans to consult on <a href="https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UKFCA/bulletins/2bd4801">increasing the contactless spending limit from £45 to £100</a>. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, this same limit was just £30. And while the FCA limit is advisory, it sets an industry standard observed by the vast majority of card providers and retailers.</p>
<p>Clearly, our ability to pay for goods and services via contactless options is useful in a pandemic. Maintaining social distance by reducing queues, plus negating the need to touch keypads, will all help to fight transmission of the virus. Meanwhile, the Bank of England recently reported on the <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2020/2020-q4/cash-in-the-time-of-covid">diminishing need for cash</a>, amplified by the pandemic, which has strengthened calls to increase the contactless payment limit. </p>
<p>On the other hand, increasing the limit for such transactions to £100 will lead to increased fraud, despite the use of <a href="https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/36542/how-to-combat-payments-fraud-with-machine-learning-in-the-cloud">machine learning methods</a> to spot fraudulent contactless payments quicker. But our real concern is not fraud, but rather personal indebtedness. Behavioural science suggests that raising the contactless spending limit may encourage reckless spending and high levels of credit card debt.</p>
<h2>Shifting frames</h2>
<p>Spending limits have <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01204/full">behavioural implications</a>, and changing those limits can change our behaviours. One mechanism by which this change might take place is through “<a href="http://psy2.ucsd.edu/%7Emckenzie/Sher&McKenzie2006Cognition.pdf">information leakage</a>”, which occurs when individuals infer additional information from a particular decision or environment – potentially incorrectly or unwisely. </p>
<p>For example, many travel websites strongly encourage you to buy insurance from them when booking a flight. Based on this framing, you might infer that travel insurance is an important or even essential thing to have. This inferred or “leaked” information may then inform your eventual decision, and you may now buy insurance you otherwise wouldn’t have.</p>
<p>The contactless spending limit likely produces information leakage, and changing the limit certainly will. It is likely that by increasing the limit to £100, many people will infer that, for example, it is normal to spend this much in a single transaction. Such an inference may then <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5353b838e4b0e68461b517cf/t/583ca5acd2b8571174b28e40/1480369581625/48-Beshears_et_al_2016.pdf">nudge them to spend more</a>, in alignment with what they now believe is normal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a mask takes a contactless payment from a seated woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381075/original/file-20210128-19-8jugqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many merchants and vendors have stopped accepting cash during the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/female-customer-making-contactless-payment-waiter-1742688896">Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On top of this, the convenience and ease of contactless payments reduces our opportunity to reconsider our purchases. Ordinarily, the process of paying provides us with a final touchpoint to reconsider our purchasing decision. At the last minute, we have the chance to ask ourselves whether we really want or need what we’re about to purchase.</p>
<p>Contactless payments are so quick and simple that we’re denied this final touchpoint. Indeed, a cynical way of thinking about financial innovation is as a set of products that make it easier for us to part with our money. The commercial world is well aware of this last barrier to your purchase and has invested in conveniently remembering your card details, signing you into an automatic rolling subscription, or allowing you to buy with a simple click, swipe, or contactless swish.</p>
<p>Seen this way, contactless payments are the “buy it now” button of the physical world – and are affecting spending behaviour accordingly. <a href="https://newsroom.mastercard.com/press-releases/new-mastercard-advisors-study-on-contactless-payments-shows-almost-30-lift-in-total-spend-within-first-year-of-adoption/">A study</a> by MasterCard found that, in the 15 months following the introduction of contactless payments on bank accounts, total spend from those accounts increased by an average of almost 30%. Many people cannot afford such a behaviour change.</p>
<p>It seems that once we’ve had a taste of frictionless payments, our spending behaviour tends to become more automatic and – arguably – reckless. The implications of this could be considerable, especially as contactless features are included on credit cards, which allow us to slip into our overdrafts instead of finding our payment rejected.</p>
<h2>Reckless spending</h2>
<p>We have long known that people spend more using credit cards than cash. Twenty years ago, researchers showed that credit card users were prepared to pay <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1008196717017">up to twice as much for sports tickets than cash buyers</a>. Coupling this effect with contactless payments of up to £100 may lead to considerable additional spending – and when this extra spending is on a credit card, it risks thrusting people into debt. </p>
<p>In principle, the increase of the contactless spend limit during a global pandemic is sensible. In the UK, contactless debit cards are now the most popular method of in-person payment, followed by contactless credit cards, <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cash-falls-behind-the-credit-card-in-shops-mj6k5fpk6">which overtook cash to claim second place in 2019</a>. In 2020, nine out of ten UK card payments were contactless - and <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252495222/Nine-out-of-10-UK-card-payments-in-2020-were-contactless">just 2.5 pence of every £100 spent using contactless payment options was attributed to fraud</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, we would urge regulators to be wary of extending contactless limits for credit card customers in particular. We should fully consider the downsides this new limit may have in encouraging reckless spending, leading consumers to incur additional debt at a time when many are already suffering financial strain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Whittle has previously received funding from the Money Advice Service to research behavioural interventions to counter problem debt accumulation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Brown and Stuart Mills do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Contactless payments may be convenient – but they also make it easier to overspend.Gavin Brown, Associate Professor in Financial Technology, University of LiverpoolRichard Whittle, Research Fellow in Economics, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityStuart Mills, Fellow of Behavioural Science, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1527942021-01-17T13:49:18Z2021-01-17T13:49:18ZOpt-out organ donation: Is Nova Scotia’s new ‘deemed consent’ law ethical?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378752/original/file-20210114-16-12a5teg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C1131%2C5730%2C2227&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deemed consent, or 'opt-in,' organ donation is a significant departure from the practices of health-care consent in Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In January 2021, Nova Scotia will become the first place in Canada to have “<a href="https://nslegislature.ca/legc/bills/63rd_2nd/1st_read/b133.htm">deemed consent</a>” for organ donation. Under this law, it will be assumed that people who don’t document their wishes about organ donation have consented to becoming organ donors. This is sometimes called an “opt-out” system, and is used in some European countries. </p>
<p>This is a significant departure from the usual practices around consent in health care in Canada. As a clinical ethicist with research interests in how we respond to inequity, I have concerns about whether potential negative effects on respect for personal choice can be justified.</p>
<h2>The ethics of public health</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03404547">principle of using the least restrictive means</a> in public health ethics means selecting the strategy that puts the fewest constraints on individual liberty. Justifying deemed consent under this principle would require evidence that it will increase the supply of donor organs, as well as evidence to prove that there is no way to achieve that increase without using deemed consent. </p>
<p>I argue here that the second requirement has not been met. If there are ways to increase organ donation without the risk of limiting individual rights, then the principle of least restrictive means guides us to pursue those strategies first.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-x5FcBjO2M0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Other strategies to increase organ donation include mandated choice, which requires people to actively opt in or opt out.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are concerns that personal freedom will be negatively affected by the Nova Scotia law, as well as worries about <a href="https://impactethics.ca/2019/05/07/at-what-cost-presumed-consent-for-organ-donation/">who will be affected</a>. </p>
<p>Here’s a fictional example: Ash, 37, arrived in Nova Scotia before the new organ donation law came into effect and doesn’t realize that the law changed. Ash has strong beliefs about not wanting to be an organ donor, but Ash has never discussed them with their partner or friends. Ash is involved in a collision and their injuries are serious. Because of deemed consent, they are identified as a candidate for organ donation. After consultation with Ash’s partner, donation proceeds. </p>
<p>The donation harms Ash because it goes against what Ash wanted to happen to their body after their death. This harm only occurred because deemed consent was in place. And individuals who do not have family or friends to speak on their behalf are at greater risk of their wishes not being respected when they have not expressed them directly. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Illustration of a Human Organ cooler, paperwork and donor organs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378999/original/file-20210115-17-1tzmq57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deemed consent for organ donation is a significant departure from the usual practices around consent in health care in Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In addition, deemed consent assumes that individuals know that they are living in a jurisdiction where they need to indicate their wish not to be a donor. This is very different from how we approach other health-care decisions, where clear and affirmative consent is required. </p>
<p>Groups that are harder to reach with health messaging — such as newcomers to Canada, those with precarious living situations or people with lower levels of education — will be at greater risk of not knowing how to ensure their organs are not donated against their wishes. And given the ongoing pandemic there are <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/province-house/ethicists-province-should-put-opt-out-organ-donation-plan-on-hold/">worries about the feasibility</a> of ensuring that decisions around organ donation are informed. </p>
<p>It is not clear that these significant costs are absolutely necessary.</p>
<p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, the principle of least restrictive means has often come up in discussion of travel restrictions and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/why-theres-no-national-lockdown/609127/">widespread lockdowns</a>. It is equally relevant when assessing policies aimed at increasing rates of organ donation.</p>
<p>In addition to bringing in deemed consent, Nova Scotia’s law increases resources for donation programs and improves efficiency of donation processes. These strategies are more aligned with the principle of least restrictive means than deemed consent is. A move to deemed consent could be more easily supported if attempts to improve processes had already been tried and had failed to increase organ donor registration.</p>
<h2>Nudges and vetoes</h2>
<p>If we were in a situation where evidence was limited or uncertain, there might be legitimate debate about whether or not the Nova Scotia law is using the least restrictive means. But this is not the case. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/behavioural-insights-pilot-project-organ-donor-registration">Research in Ontario</a> indicates that registration rates can be significantly increased with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15265161.2019.1588411">use of “nudges.”</a> Putting the question, “How would you feel if you or a loved one needed a transplant and couldn’t get one?” on the top of donation forms affected behaviour. Nudging like this does not affect requirements for explicit consent. Other less restrictive options include <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jme.29.3.157">mandated choice</a>, which could require people to opt in or opt out whenever they renew their health card. </p>
<p>Less restrictive measures like this should be adopted before moving to deemed consent, especially in the absence of conclusive evidence that deemed consent systems are the only strategy that will adequately increase supply of donor organs. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Illustration of human organs against a dark blue backdrop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379000/original/file-20210115-23-1ok5cg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Less-restrictive measures should be adopted before moving to deemed consent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Another significant barrier to organ donation is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-020-01214-8">families’ ability to “veto”</a> expressed decisions around donation. Concern has been raised that this would be worse under a deemed consent system. The argument is that there will be <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1751143717694916">greater uncertainty about a person’s wishes</a> and so it will be harder to show that vetoing organ donation is going against their wishes.</p>
<p>Respecting family vetoes (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.160752">even when this goes against legislation</a>) reflects the value of compassion for bereaved families. When deemed consent is being considered, these commitments need to be weighed against harm to respect for individual autonomy. To satisfy the principle of the least restrictive means, organ donation strategies should address family vetoes (and other similar barriers) before moving to options that carry a greater risk of limiting individual autonomy. </p>
<p>It is not evident from the evidence that a deemed consent organ donation system is the least restrictive means available to increase the supply of donor organs. We would first need to demonstrate that improving existing processes, the use of nudges, mandated choice, addressing family vetoes and strategies like <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jme.2009.032912">advanced commitment</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jlb/lsy009">incentives</a> cannot adequately increase rates of organ donation. Then, and only then, would a move to deemed consent be justified. Until such evidence is available the principle of the least restrictive means prompts us to make efforts to increase donation rates in ways that are more respectful of individual choice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marika Warren does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deemed consent organ donation means that everyone is assumed to be an organ donor unless they opt out, but assuming consent raises some ethical issues.Marika Warren, Assistant Professor, Department of Bioethics, Faculty of Medicine, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1322522020-12-27T20:40:45Z2020-12-27T20:40:45ZHumans learn from mistakes — so why do we hide our failures?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374663/original/file-20201214-23-1r705ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=456%2C244%2C2808%2C1380&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">pxfuel</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A few years ago I had the pleasure of listening to the highly-influential legal scholar Cass Sunstein speak in the flesh. Cass wrote the best-selling book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/304634/nudge-by-richard-h-thaler-and-cass-r-sunstein/">Nudge</a>, along with his long-time collaborator Richard Thaler.</p>
<p>Thaler subsequently won the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2017/popular-information/">Nobel Prize in Economics</a> and Cass went to the White House to head up a team advising the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/magazine/16Sunstein-t.html">Obama administration</a>. </p>
<p>It was among the first of what came to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-the-uk-government-is-using-behavioural-science-134097">hundreds</a> <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/behavioural-insights">of</a> <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/">government</a> <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-hub.html">teams</a> around the world using their insights into human behaviour to improve what governments did.</p>
<p>Cass was speaking <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/just-a-nudge-why-malcolm-turnbull-is-embracing-behavioral-economics-20151127-gl9mld.html">in Canberra</a> and I asked whether he could talk about nudges that hadn’t worked. His initial answer surprised me – he said none came to mind.</p>
<h2>So what is nudging?</h2>
<p>To backtrack, it’s important to understand what a nudge is. The concept is based on the idea that people often act “irrationally”.</p>
<p>By itself this isn’t a particularly useful insight. What is a useful is the insight that they behave irrationally in ways we can predict.</p>
<p>Here’s one. We are lazy, so when placed with a plethora of offers about what to buy or sign up to we often stick with what we’ve got, the “don’t need to think about it option”, even when there are better deals on the table.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychology-of-christmas-shopping-how-marketers-nudge-you-to-buy-88011">The psychology of Christmas shopping: how marketers nudge you to buy</a>
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<p>And we tend to value the present over the future – so while we know we shouldn’t eat junk food, we often prioritise short-term satisfaction over long-term health.</p>
<p>These insights into behavioural regularities allow us to tailor government programs to get better outcomes.</p>
<p>For example, in Britain 80% of people say they are willing to donate an organ when they die, but only 37% put their names on the register. </p>
<p>To bridge this gap the government is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/introducing-opt-out-consent-for-organ-and-tissue-donation-in-england">changing the system</a> so that the default option is to be a donor.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-opt-out-system-isnt-the-solution-to-australias-low-rate-of-organ-donation-108336">An opt-out system isn't the solution to Australia's low rate of organ donation</a>
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<hr>
<p>People can still opt-out if they want to – but the simple switch is likely to save as many as 700 lives per year.</p>
<p>We like to behave like those around us, so here in Australia to help combat the rise of drug-resistant superbugs, the chief medical officer wrote to the <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/nudge-vs-superbugs-behavioural-economics-trial-reduce-overprescribing-antibiotics">highest prescribers of antibiotics</a> pointing out they weren’t in line with their peers. </p>
<p>It cut the prescribing rate of the highest prescribers by 12% in six months.</p>
<h2>Then why was Cass’ answer surprising?</h2>
<p>I was surprised because nudging promotes rigorous trials, evidence and testing – so it’s hard to believe every proposal would be found to have worked.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374671/original/file-20201214-13-1i6b8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cass Sunstein at the BETA conference.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/behavioural-exchange-2018/keynote-address-ethics-and-behavioural-insights">BETA</a></span>
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<p>In science, experiments frequently throw up unexpected results.</p>
<p>Only publishing the results of successful trials would lead to bulging cabinets of failures from which we would never learn. </p>
<p>Given that failure is one of our most effective teachers, it would be a huge missed opportunity.</p>
<p>And the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positives_and_false_negatives">false positives</a> that would be published along with any genuine positives would inflate the belief that the intervention worked. </p>
<p>Any experiment involving an element of randomness (in the subjects selected or conditions in which it was conduced) will occasionally report a positive effect that wasn’t there.</p>
<p>This “<a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/replication-crisis">replication crisis</a>” has been recognised as big problem in psychology and economics, with many previously results being <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6251/aac4716">thrown into doubt</a>.</p>
<p>Thankfully things are changing for the better. There are a range of initiatives encouraging the publication of both positive and negative results, along with a far greater awareness of these questionable research practices.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-replication-crisis-has-engulfed-economics-49202">The replication crisis has engulfed economics</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And they are embraced by the Australian government’s own Behavioural Economics Team, <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/">BETA</a>, with whom I work.</p>
<p>To guard against the publishing of only results that fit a narrative, BETA pre-registers its analysis plan, which means it can’t decide to pick out only the results that fit a particular story once the trial is done. </p>
<p>BETA has also set up an <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/blog/strengthening-links-academia">external advisory panel of academics</a> (on which I sit) to give independent advice on transparency, trial design and analysis.</p>
<p>It has had some <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/improving-government-confirmation-processes-using-sms">very</a> <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/credit-when-its-due">successful</a> <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/energy-labels-make-cents-randomised-controlled-trial-test-effect-appliance-energy-rating">trials</a>, but also some with surprising results.</p>
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<p>When it set out to discover whether a fact sheet enabling households to compare electricity plans would encourage them to switch to better ones it discovered (at least in the experiment conducted) <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/simplifying-energy-fact-sheets-improve-consumer-understanding">it did not</a>.</p>
<p>When it set out to discover whether removing identifying information from public service job applications would increase the proportion of women and minorities shortlisted for interviews it discovered (at least in the experiment conducted) <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/going-blind-see-more-clearly-unconscious-bias-australian-public-service-aps-shortlisting">it did not</a>.</p>
<p>These findings give us just as much useful information as the trials that were “successful”. They can help the government design better programs.</p>
<h2>There’s a happy ending to this story</h2>
<p>Back at the conference, after his initial answer Cass reflected further. He did recall some failures, and he talked about the lessons learned. </p>
<p>Since then, he has even published a paper, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioural-public-policy/article/abs/nudges-that-fail/8DE5FFFFB7DA5BE14F8DC1E3D2C0C0AA">Nudges that Fail</a> that provides insights every bit as good as those from nudges that succeed.</p>
<p>Feel free to check out <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects">BETA’s list</a>, the good and the bad. </p>
<p>It’s important to embrace mistakes, and to make more than a few. It’s the only way to be sure we are really learning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Newell receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Australia’s behavioral economics unit publishes rather than hides the results of its unsuccessful experiments.Ben Newell, Professor of Cognitive Psychology, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1371572020-04-30T01:40:40Z2020-04-30T01:40:40ZContact tracing apps: a behavioural economist’s guide to improving uptake<p>More than <a href="https://twitter.com/GregHuntMP/status/1255421478281138187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">3 million Australians</a> have downloaded the Australian government’s COVIDSafe contact-tracing app in the three days since its release.</p>
<p>That’s impressive. </p>
<p>But not as impressive as the <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/more-than-1-million-download-covidsafe-app-20200427-p54ngw.html">2 million downloads</a> in the first 24 hours. The slowing rate suggests it will take longer to get to 4 million, and remember the federal government wants 10 million people, 40% of the population, to download and use the app. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330917/original/file-20200428-76570-1ogvwxo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison tweets about downloads of COVIDSafe passing 2 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1254704596175294464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3AGregHuntMP%7Ctwcon%5Etimelinechrome&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.greghunt.com.au%2Fmedia%2F">Scott Morrison/Twitter</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Even with politicians appealing to our better instincts and dangling the carrot of getting back to normal once we reach the golden goal, the evidence from overseas suggests we won’t get there without extra carrots. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-medical-officer-brendan-murphy-predicts-more-than-50-take-up-of-covid-tracing-app-137238">Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy predicts more than 50% take-up of COVID tracing app</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Singapore, for example, released its <a href="https://www.tracetogether.gov.sg/">TraceTogether</a> app more than a month ago and still hasn’t cracked 20%. Israel’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-apps/1-5-million-israelis-using-voluntary-coronavirus-monitoring-app-idUSKBN21J5L5">Shield</a> app has done no better. </p>
<p>Here is where behavioural economists can help. </p>
<h2>Giving people a nudge</h2>
<p>Classical economic theory assumes individuals make rational decisions. Behavioural economics is interested is understanding the reality of human decisions – partly rational, partly emotional, and profoundly influenced by the fact we are highly social creatures. </p>
<p>Behavioural economists do experiments similar to those in psychology departments, observing participants in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43199256?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">controlled experiments</a> to understand the factors that drive their decisions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covidsafe-tracking-app-reviewed-the-government-delivers-on-data-security-but-other-issues-remain-137249">COVIDSafe tracking app reviewed: the government delivers on data security, but other issues remain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Based on these insights, they have been able to propose “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/nudge-theory-richard-thaler-meaning-explanation-what-is-it-nobel-economics-prize-winner-2017-a7990461.html">nudges</a>” – subtle changes to communications, policies, schemes and systems that more effectively encourage people to behave in ways better for them and society. These avoid the negative consequences of more coercive approaches. </p>
<p>An example is the “opt-out” nudge that has dramatically increased organ donation. Conventional economic theory would say people either want to be a donor or do not. But behavioural <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1324774">research found</a> only 42% of people would “opt in” to be an organ donor while 82% would choose to stay a donor in an “opt-out” scheme. This simple change to donor schemes has saved many lives.</p>
<p>Different nudges informed by behavourial research have been used to <a href="https://apolitical.co/en/solution_article/behavioural-science-decrease-litter-philadelphia">encourage recycling</a> and <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/cancer-screening/national-bowel-cancer-screening-program-monitoring/contents/table-of-contents">increase cancer-screening rates</a>.</p>
<p>So what can behavioural economics tell us about encouraging take-up of the contact-tracing app?</p>
<h2>Getting around to it</h2>
<p>The first issue is apathy or inertia. </p>
<p>We can see evidence of this in Australia’s download numbers so far. In a <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/polling-uptake-government-covid-19-app">poll of 1,011 Australians</a> last week, 45% of respondents said they intended to download the app, while 28% said they would not and 27% said they were unsure. </p>
<p>Assuming those who have downloaded the app so far are from first group, the figures suggest a third of the population is willing to download the app but just hasn’t gotten around to it. This is the first group to “nudge”.</p>
<p>Here the simplest form of nudge – sheer repetition – can be quite effective. Marketing guru Jeffrey Lant coined the “rule of seven’” – that a customer will only buy when they have seen a message seven times. For other types of behaviour it doesn’t necessarily even require that. </p>
<p>A controlled experiment by the <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/">Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian government</a> in 2017, for example, found any type of SMS reminder to those with credit-card debt <a href="https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects/credit-when-its-due">led to a 28% increase</a> in repayments the following month.</p>
<p>So the first lesson is: message repetition. </p>
<h2>If everybody else is doing it</h2>
<p>Repetition by whom, though?</p>
<p>Certainly the messaging can’t all come from the federal government. It has a trust problem when it comes to matters of digital privacy. Its messaging must be focused on addressing those trust concerns, by strengthening <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/26/australias-coronavirus-tracing-app-set-to-launch-today-despite-lingering-privacy-concerns">privacy guarantees through legislation</a> and making the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/heath-minister-says-govt-will-release-covidsafe-source-code/12187634">app’s code public</a>.</p>
<p>For more general messaging to encourage downloads, behavioural economics offers what is perhaps its most fundamental insight.</p>
<p>Here’s how David Halpern, head of the British government’s Behavioural Insights Team, puts it in his book <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/inside-the-nudge-unit-9780753556559">Inside the Nudge Unit</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The behaviour of other people has a powerful influence on us. It is almost impossible not to follow the gaze of a crowd. We laugh twice as often at a comedy show when we watch it with someone else.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now that might seem obvious, but behavourial economists have studied the phenomenon in detail. They’ve measured to what extent we care about behaving like other people – <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-contact-tracing-apps-most-of-us-wont-cooperate-unless-everyone-does-135959">60-70% of the population care a lot</a>, according to one study – and the factors that affect our behaviour. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-contact-tracing-apps-most-of-us-wont-cooperate-unless-everyone-does-135959">Coronavirus contact-tracing apps: most of us won’t cooperate unless everyone does</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Behavioural studies have found, for instance, that <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=IJFoDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT107&lpg=PT107&dq=robert+cialdini+eight+times+more+likely+drop+flyer&source=bl&ots=Mr4agvsjR8&sig=ACfU3U0feUprElk_yKpjAxKSrrpMkFAzgg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiGh9_T_orpAhWE9nMBHb66Cj4Q6AEwAHoECAsQAQ#v=onepage&q=robert%20cialdini%20eight%20times%20more%20likely%20drop%20flyer&f=false">people were eight times more likely</a> to drop a flyer left under their car windscreen if they saw many other flyers on the ground. </p>
<p>It has also measured the powerful nudge of simply informing people about how others act. Such messages have been effective in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jcr/article/35/3/472/1856257">increasing towel reuse by hotel guests</a> and <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5820/1/MPRA_paper_5820.pdf">improving tax compliance</a>.</p>
<p>So the second lesson is the importance of communicating a social norm. Such nudges are likely to be valuable for motivating both procrastinators and the undecided.</p>
<h2>Well, if you say so</h2>
<p>Who those nudges come from is also important. </p>
<p>While we care about being part of the crowd, we also are highly influenced by those we trust. </p>
<p>Why, what and who we trust has been the subject of much behavioural research, because it’s particularly relevant to consumer choices. </p>
<p>In this case, faced with an avalanche of information (and misinformation), we might look for guidance from those we know closely. Or respected members of the community. Or people in particular professions, with doctors, nurses and scientists being <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-27/the-professions-australians-trust-the-most/11725448">the most trusted in Australia</a>. </p>
<p>An example of this influence is shown by a tweet from Nobel laureate and immunologist Peter Doherty. His <a href="https://twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty">support</a> for the COVIDSafe app was enough to change the mind of at least one person.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330657/original/file-20200427-145503-1o4mlm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/AltoCarol/status/1254251127639441408">Twitter</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>There will need to be influencers appealing to all demographics – actors, musicians, television personalities, athletes.</p>
<p>So the third lesson is the importance of trust.</p>
<h2>More levers in the toolbox</h2>
<p>Used smartly, these three insights from behavioural economics on nudges that spur action, communicate social norms and reinforce trust could be highly effective, and cost-effective, in moving the nation closer to the government’s goal.</p>
<p>As behavioural economists, though, we suspect getting the whole way will require digging deeper into the nudge toolbox. </p>
<p>The levers likely to be needed are the ones economists are most comfortable with: financial incentives or disincentives. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-modelling-tells-us-the-coronavirus-app-will-need-a-big-take-up-economics-tells-us-how-to-get-it-136944">Vital Signs: Modelling tells us the coronavirus app will need a big take-up, economics tells us how to get it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Economists Richard Holden and Joshua Gans, for example, have proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-modelling-tells-us-the-coronavirus-app-will-need-a-big-take-up-economics-tells-us-how-to-get-it-136944">a $10 monthly rebate</a> on phone bills for those who download the app. Behavioural economics can provide important insights into designing effective financial carrots. </p>
<p>But that’s another article.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Behavioural economics has three key insights to encourage take-up of the contact-tracing app.John Hawkins, Assistant Professor, School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of CanberraBen Freyens, Associate professor, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1374292020-04-29T13:46:18Z2020-04-29T13:46:18ZContact tracing apps: why they should learn a trick from fitness trackers<p>Contact tracing has long been used in response to disease outbreaks. It is <a href="https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/02/13/expert-interview-what-is-contact-tracing/">simply the idea</a> of asking an infected person who they have been in contact with and then notifying the people in question to try and control the spread of the disease. Some countries <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/contact-tracing-uk-lockdown/">have been</a> employing this during the current crisis. The World Health Organisation has consistently <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-18mar2020b4d4018fc1904605831b6a08d31e0cbc.pdf">said that</a> “tracing every contact must be the backbone of the response in every country”. </p>
<p>Governments around the world are also either deploying or developing digital versions of contact tracing, using smartphones and Bluetooth to keep track of who an infected person has encountered. South Korea was one of the first, and its <a href="https://bluetrace.io/">BlueTrace</a> scheme is <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-south-koreas-success-in-controlling-disease-is-due-to-its-acceptance-of-surveillance-134068">seen as</a> one key reason why its infection rates <a href="https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6">have stayed</a> under control. <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/04/08/stopcovid-l-application-sur-laquelle-travaille-le-gouvernement-pour-contrer-l-epidemie_6035927_3244.html">France</a>, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/26/germany-changes-track-contact-tracing-app-privacy-concerns/">Germany</a>, the <a href="https://healthtech.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/24/digital-contact-tracing-protecting-the-nhs-and-saving-lives/">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/04/dutch-see-apps-as-key-to-relaxing-lockdown-tracing-corona-suspects/">the Netherlands</a> are among those that are now creating apps of their own. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331449/original/file-20200429-51485-1wlt6uw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We are also seeing international efforts to build secure standards that will preserve users’ privacy and allow these systems to talk to one another. This includes the Swiss-led <a href="https://github.com/DP-3T/documents">DP-3T project</a> and a joint effort by <a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/">Google and Apple</a>. </p>
<h2>Digital difficulties</h2>
<p>Digital contact tracing is certainly not perfect. Users will need a smartphone capable of running the <a href="https://developer.android.com/guide/topics/connectivity/bluetooth-le">Bluetooth Low Energy</a> system. The Financial Times <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/271c7739-af14-4e77-a2a1-0842cf61a90f">reckons that</a> around 2 billion phones won’t be compatible. Worse, digital contact tracing can only help where the people interacting are both using the system. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52294896">Researchers calculate</a> that around 56% of the population would need to use an app for it to be successful – that’s four in five smartphone users. Yet many people have reasonable privacy concerns around how their data will be used, and they worry this <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-state-of-exception-becomes-the-norm-democracy-is-on-a-tightrope-135369">could become permanent</a>. In Australia, for example, the government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/privacy-concerns-persist-over-australias-coronavirus-tracing-app">has struggled</a> to convince even its own MPs that its proposed app will be private enough. </p>
<p>In the UK, recent survey data provides room for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1752affb-24dc-4ad9-8503-78f9ce1adca9">cautious optimism</a>: 65% of people agree with using smartphones for contact tracing. Among 55-75 year olds, support is nearing 73%, while for 18-34 year-olds it is 59%. Whether this will be impacted by the UK’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428">likely decision</a> to build a centralised database of contact events remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Even then, there is another major issue. <a href="https://www.lightbluetouchpaper.org/2020/04/12/contact-tracing-in-the-real-world/">Not everyone agrees</a> that digital contact tracing is effective against diseases – or how well it will work against COVID-19, where a <a href="https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported">long time can pass</a> before people show symptoms and get tested. Widespread testing will still be needed, and digital contact tracing won’t prevent everyone from being infected.</p>
<h2>Nudge, nudge</h2>
<p>So even as more countries’ apps go live, social distancing will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/uk-will-need-social-distancing-until-at-least-end-of-year-says-whitty">continue to be</a> the main way for people to protect themselves for the time being. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults">UK guidance</a> asks people to stay more than two metres away from those they encounter outside, and to avoid non-essential public transport journeys and other social gatherings. </p>
<p>Maintaining such restrictions will be a challenge as lockdowns are lifted, since social distancing <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-human-contact-wellness-intl/index.html">goes against</a> human instinct. One <a href="https://pureportal.strath.ac.uk/en/publications/protection-motivation-theory-and-social-distancing-behaviour-in-r">piece of research</a> also found that an essential factor in people being willing to social distance was if they thought they could do it; the longer people are expected to stick to the coronavirus guidelines, the more they will probably feel they can’t keep doing it. </p>
<p>The research <a href="https://pureportal.strath.ac.uk/en/publications/protection-motivation-theory-and-social-distancing-behaviour-in-r">shows that</a> people don’t necessarily social distance, despite their best intentions. In the <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/coronavirus/106190/what-is-nudge-theory">words of</a> Chris Whitty, the UK chief medical adviser, “enthusiasm at some point lags”. Contact tracing apps will help here, but there is a way of making them more effective that seems to have been overlooked. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331400/original/file-20200429-51461-1oomiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Two metres apart, please.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/elbow-bump-new-novel-greeting-avoid-1664361598">Linda Bestwick</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These apps work by storing the Bluetooth identifier being transmitted from every phone they encounter. The received signal strength will also be stored to give a rough approximation of distance, though this varies between phones so isn’t hugely accurate. </p>
<p>On a regular basis, the app will fetch the identifiers of all people in the country who have tested positive for COVID-19 or are at very high risk of having been infected. It will then check back and see if its user has previously encountered any of these identifiers, and trigger a warning message or phone call that tells the user to get tested or take other steps. This will be people’s only guide to how well they are successfully social-distancing – apart from developing symptoms. </p>
<p>To make this better, we could add a feature that works in a similar way to how fitness tracking apps <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4917727/">give feedback</a> on a person’s daily performance to “nudge” them into doing a little better tomorrow. Apps could tell users how many people they are coming into contact with each day as a whole, and what kind of risk profile that gives them – comparing them with other users <a href="https://www.apple.com/privacy/docs/Differential_Privacy_Overview.pdf">without giving</a> any private information away. The data could also differentiate between long and short encounters. Users could then track their efforts at distancing in real time. </p>
<h2>Changing behaviour</h2>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.wired.com/2011/06/ff_feedbackloop/">evidence</a> that this kind of feedback-driven approach helps to change people’s behaviour, <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Behavioral_Insights_Report-(1).pdf">and can</a> improve their health. We also know that <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Behavioral_Insights_Report-(1).pdf">peer comparison is</a> very effective. In one example, the NHS monitored how many antibiotics GPs were prescribing and sent letters telling them if they were prescribing a lot more than their peers. The NHS project cost £4,000 (compared to an alternative incentive scheme that would have cost an estimated £23 million) and cut antibiotics prescriptions by over 3%. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331397/original/file-20200429-51489-aq7li2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">App and at ‘em.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/covid19-pandemic-coronavirus-mobile-application-young-1628737912">zigres</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’re already seeing nudging <a href="https://www.bi.team/blogs/bright-infographics-and-minimal-text-make-handwashing-posters-most-effective/">being used</a> to change people’s behaviour in other ways in relation to COVID-19, such as the <a href="https://www.bi.team/blogs/using-behavioural-insights-to-create-a-covid-19-text-service-for-the-nhs/">NHS sending warnings</a> to vulnerable people to self-isolate for 12 weeks, along with simple instructions to help them do it. </p>
<p>Contact tracing apps present an opportunity to introduce these insights into distancing, without needing any new data collection or sharing. This feels like a relatively easy win that governments should seriously consider while many of these apps are still in the planning and design stages.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greig Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s definitely such a thing as society – which is a huge challenge for developing an app that will ward off COVID-19. Greig Paul, Lead Mobile Networks and Security Engineer, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1369442020-04-23T20:04:16Z2020-04-23T20:04:16ZVital Signs: Modelling tells us the coronavirus app will need a big take-up, economics tells us how to get it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329677/original/file-20200422-108540-14idm4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=377%2C258%2C2746%2C1182&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/@yiranding">丁亦然/UpSplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With Australia’s test-confirmed daily COVID-19 infection rates continuing to fall to relatively low levels, there is considerable discussion about when and how the successful containment measures might be relaxed.</p>
<iframe src="https://e.infogram.com/_/cOIPtIcy7fYKhSjH58xZ?src=embed" title="Number of confirmed cases each day" width="100%" height="713" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none;" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
<p>There are four key prerequisites for relaxation:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>the daily infection rate needs to be very low – perhaps in the single digits per day, unless we are pursuing a pure “elimination strategy” which would require zero</p></li>
<li><p>more testing. Experts at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html">Harvard University</a> say we would need 150 tests per 100,000 people a day. In NSW we test a third as much</p></li>
<li><p>more personal protective equipment for front-line medical staff</p></li>
<li><p>widespread and effective contact tracing to ensure we can quickly respond to second-wave outbreaks.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Contact tracing is extremely challenging when done manually. Asking people to keep a diary of where they have been is outdated.</p>
<p>The ubiquity of mobile phones offers a smarter and vastly more effective way to contact trace – at least in principle. </p>
<p>The Australian government has been exploring that path, and hopes to release an app within weeks based on the one used in Singapore – <a href="https://tracetogether.zendesk.com/hc/en-sg/articles/360044849834-How-does-TraceTogether-measure-distance-and-duration-of-contact-What-thresholds-constitute-close-contact-">TraceTogether</a>.</p>
<p>According to its website:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>TraceTogether uses received signal strength indicator (RSSI) values to measure the signal strength between phones. Calibrated RSSI values are used to estimate approximate distance between users during an encounter. TraceTogether interpolates between successive communications in order to estimate the approximate duration of an encounter</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These data are stored on a user’s own device and deleted on a 21-day rolling basis.</p>
<p>To alleviate privacy concerns, no location data is stored, and the “contact data” can be sent only to state health departments and only if needed – such as after a contact tests positive for COVID-19.</p>
<h2>We’ll need an 80% take-up rate</h2>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the required target take-up rate is 40%. But mathematics suggests that’s too low to provide the tracing needed.</p>
<p>What are the odds a random person in the population who has COVID-19 has the app and that a person in contact with them also has the app?</p>
<p>It’s 40% times 40%, which is 16% – pretty low.</p>
<p>In Singapore, about <a href="https://www.tracetogether.gov.sg">20%</a> of the population have downloaded the app, meaning the “tracing odds” are 20% times 20%, which 4% – which isn’t great at all.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-contact-tracing-apps-most-of-us-wont-cooperate-unless-everyone-does-135959">Coronavirus contact-tracing apps: most of us won’t cooperate unless everyone does</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Researchers at Oxford University have calculated <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1009/Report_-_Effective_App_Configurations.pdf?1587531217">a take-up rate of 80%</a> of all phone users (or 56% of the population overall) is needed to reliably suppress an epidemic.</p>
<p>How could we get it in Australia?</p>
<h2>To get it, we’ll need incentives</h2>
<p>The obvious way to would be to mandate its use. That’s how compulsory voting works. But Morrison has <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1251304490952605696?s=20">ruled that out</a>.</p>
<p>As an economist, I should observe that another obvious (if less effective) means would be to provide incentives. </p>
<p>Joshua Gans and I <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/provide-incentives-for-using-the-tracing-app-20200420-p54lde">advocated</a> such an approach earlier this week.</p>
<p>People who install and use the app could, for example, be given a A$10 rebate on their monthly phone bill (a carrot). People who do not could be denied access to public places such as shopping centres and parks (a stick).</p>
<h2>Perhaps even group incentives</h2>
<p>The prime minister has suggested relaxing containment measures might be conditional on a certain take-up rate, suggesting another, complementary, approach – group incentives.</p>
<p>Imagine that any relaxation of current containment measures required a 40% take-up rate. There would be peer pressure to “do the right thing” for the whole community.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-governments-coronavirus-app-a-risk-to-privacy-136719">Is the government's coronavirus app a risk to privacy?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The higher the take-up, the safer it would be to lift additional restrictions.</p>
<p>Maybe pubs could open, with four-square-metre social distancing rules in place, if the take-up was 60%. </p>
<p>Perhaps with evidence of the virus remaining under control for an extended period, social-distancing measures could be relaxed further at an 80% to 90% take-up rate.</p>
<h2>It’d be up to us</h2>
<p>We would be deciding whether to do our part and sign up for the app. We would be weighing the benefits for the community against personal privacy concerns.</p>
<p>Admonitions are unlikely to be enough. We’ll need nudges. </p>
<p>If the government is serious about take-up it will make those nudges, both direct and indirect. We care about society as a whole. We are likely to weigh that up against what it costs us to do our bit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the app to work well, we might need an 80% take-up. Unless it is made mandatory, we’ll need both private and social incentives.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1345002020-03-26T13:49:53Z2020-03-26T13:49:53ZCoronavirus: why changing human behaviour is the best defence in tackling the virus<p>The current <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-tests-how-they-work-and-whats-in-development-134479">COVID-19 pandemic</a> is unprecedented. But it is not the biological characteristics of the virus that are most dangerous. Rather, it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-makes-some-people-act-selfishly-while-others-are-more-responsible-134341">how people behave towards it</a> that really matters. </p>
<p>I’m a biological anthropologist interested in how humans influence and adapt to changing environmental conditions. As part of my work, I look at the risks posed to people’s health when healthcare systems are disrupted or <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2014.969934">overrun by conflict, disasters and emergencies</a>. </p>
<p>COVID-19 has shown it has the ability to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-conversation-we-should-have-with-our-loved-ones-now-leading-medic-134337">overwhelm healthcare systems</a> around the world. So how people behave in response to the real and perceived risks they face is a key factor in tackling the pandemic. Indeed, <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemics-from-homer-to-stephen-king-what-we-can-learn-from-literary-history-133572">history shows</a> that behavioural factors can play a large part in slowing and stopping disease spread. </p>
<p>The World Health Organization (WHO) recognises the value of human behaviour in managing pandemics. Its <a href="https://www.who.int/ihr/publications/outbreak-communication-guide/en/">Outbreak Communications Planning Guide</a> suggests behaviour changes can reduce the spread by as much as 80%. This can mean the difference between healthcare sectors being overwhelmed or continuing to function. </p>
<p>But this places a huge pressure on governments and public health agencies to produce the right messaging on COVID-19. This is particularly tricky given that people are at different risk levels from the virus. Indeed, how can people that aren’t at high risk be encouraged to take it seriously, and tolerate significant disruption to their lives, if they are less likely to be affected? </p>
<p>If governments get it right, and <a href="http://oullier.free.fr/files/2010_Oullier-Cialdini-Thaler-Mullainathan_Neuroscience-Prevention-Public-Health_Nudge-Behavioral-Economics.pdf">nudge behaviour</a> in the right direction at society, community and individual level, the resources available to fight the disease will go much further.</p>
<p>But get it wrong and messages risk waking the “<a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2011-09485-005.html">dragons of inaction</a>” – the psychological barriers we put in place when the problem seems too huge to address. The British stiff upper lip and manta of “keep calm and carry on” may also be problematic – as playing down concern too much could similarly hamper the response. </p>
<h2>A history of human compassion</h2>
<p>Disrupting one’s usual routine for the benefit of others may not be to everyone’s liking, but throughout history, humans have been willing to make sacrifices to protect the health of others. The willingness to do so seems to be part of <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=R8PDDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Health+in+the+Anthropecene+who+pays+and+why+Jennifer+Cole&ots=WW2peHWp9P&sig=xfLWc2ctdh65Bm6rgVeWmRihkmQ&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Health%2520in%2520the%2520Anthropecene%2520who%2520pays%2520and%2520why%2520Jennifer%2520Cole&f=false">human nature</a>. There is evidence from prehistory of human groups supporting elderly and disabled people who would have been unlikely to survive on their own. </p>
<p>Evolutionary theories suggest this may be due to the “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/428128a">grandmother effect</a>”, which freed up younger members of the group while elders minded the children. Another theory suggests that compassion is beneficial because it enables people to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2752/175169610X12754030955977">feel superior</a> to lower animals and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:JADD.0000022607.19833.00">aids group cohesion</a>. Or it may be that people are kind to the elderly when they are young in the hope that they will receive the same care when they grow old. </p>
<p>Calling on human compassion by highlighting the danger to the higher-risk groups is an important messaging strategy as it recognises that the risk is different for different people. And it ensures that those who can self-isolate understand why they need to, without unduly worrying essential workers who need to move about to keep the country going. </p>
<p>This is a clever approach because, in purely biological terms, SARS-Cov2 — the virus that causes COVID-19 – is not that dangerous to most people. On <a href="https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/">a graph</a> that plots how contagious a disease is against how deadly, it sits in the bottom left-hand corner – somewhere between 2009’s Swine Flu and the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu. It spreads far less easily than measles, for example. And is far less likely to kill those infected than smallpox or Ebola. </p>
<h2>Hygiene matters</h2>
<p>History has shown how, if all of society works together, we can all make a difference to the final outcome. In the late 19th to early 20th centuries, for example, examinations of the decline in mortality from a range of common childhood diseases show that improvements in municipal and household sanitation <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.2190/L73V-NLDL-G7H3-63JC">brought down mortality rates</a> considerably – even before vaccinations or antibiotics were introduced. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Cultural-Contexts-of-Ebola-in-Northern-Uganda-Hewlett-Amola/5e477716ac1dd518e580c0448cf67b8ee059b973">Research</a> from 2003 also outlines the important role human behaviour played in managing the 2001-2002 Ebola outbreak in Uganda. And during the <a href="https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/influenza/behavior-change-may-have-greatest-influence-waves-influenza-outbreak">Spanish Flu</a> pandemic of 1918-1919, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-and-spanish-flu-economic-lessons-to-learn-from-the-last-truly-global-pandemic-133176">behavioural factors</a> including the cancellation of large gatherings, physical distancing and simple handwashing, helped to slow the spread of the disease.</p>
<p>During the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, anthropologist Paul Farmer <a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/session?redirect=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.lrb.co.uk%252Fthe-paper%252Fv36%252Fn20%252Fpaul-farmer%252Fdiary%253Freferrer%253D&s=OpOKBlFEUe0g4I/XgDzFduipzq3EpXirdQAdEedUzg8Xd4bpOvdYrzprt8cvhJqSzpcVdg4ABkhMVlSzmOv4WmuCA935zVzUQJYfNJdv8Aide4GgXhuKQ6A6RRcFn3bGog0GPO5mqJFREbrd3Rr3SZvWL6JJeei6k7/ojcy3k9Fhj2rmqdKlMTyDd/wSkNHAZ3hBXdd5/a95MQD2/AMpIyIrkbz3LKYb0FJQx/8hWNRFa0bFmn12mtNpfA+nCwEmJne2SjA=">stated</a> that weak healthcare systems were as much to blame for the spread of the disease as its virulence or mode of transmission. This means that keeping healthcare systems as strong as possible is our best means of defence.</p>
<p>When healthcare services are stretched to (and perhaps beyond) their limits, everyone needs to rally to support them. That means everyone doing the best they can to avoid catching COVID-19 and spreading it to others. This is a time to just listen to what you are being told to do – stay inside, stay away from others as much as you can, and wash your hands often. This isn’t just for the sake of own health anymore.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Cole receives funding from UKRI (ESRC). She is affiliated with the Royal United Services Institute, where she holds the position of Associate Fellow. </span></em></p>History shows that behavioural factors play a major role in slowing and stopping disease spread.Jennifer Cole, Research Fellow in the Department of Geography, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.