tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/oracle-7838/articlesOracle – The Conversation2021-10-25T19:12:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1681902021-10-25T19:12:03Z2021-10-25T19:12:03ZChina is accused of exporting authoritarian technology. But the west has done so, too, more covertly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428142/original/file-20211025-19717-bx6kc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=498%2C9%2C5902%2C4416&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ng Han Guan/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s 5G technology has now been banned in many countries, including Australia, New Zealand, the US and many in the European Union. In 2019, a <a href="https://ccdcoe.org/library/publications/huawei-5g-and-china-as-a-security-threat/">NATO Cyber Defence Centre report</a> identified Huawei’s 5G technology as a security risk.</p>
<p>Since September, telecommunications providers in the US have been able to apply for compensation through a US$1.9 billion program designed to “<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3150345/us-instructs-rural-carriers-how-apply-funding-remove-huawei-and-zte">rip and replace</a>” Huawei and ZTE equipment, due to perceived <a href="https://consumer.huawei.com/ph/community/details/US-FCC-votes-to-advance-proposed-ban-on-Huawei-ZTE-gear/topicId_133468/">risks to national security</a>.</p>
<p>But fears over China’s attempts to export its digital and surveillance technologies go far beyond just Huawei and 5G. China has been accused of exporting “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/china-is-exporting-its-digital-authoritarianism/2020/08/05/f14df896-d047-11ea-8c55-61e7fa5e82ab_story.html">digital authoritarianism</a>” and spreading “<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/04/08/chinas-techno-authoritarianism-has-gone-global">techno-authoritarianism globally</a>”. It’s been declared a danger to the rest of the world. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428150/original/file-20211025-15-pc3d9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A visitor has her face scanned by a face recognition system during a technology exhibition in Beijing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Song Fan/AP</span></span>
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<p>In <a href="https://www.crimejusticejournal.com/article/view/1908">my research</a>, I argue the story of digital authoritarianism is not that straightforward. </p>
<p>Technologies that help authoritarian leaders collect information and control their populations have been exported with few restrictions for decades. Although China does export ready-made surveillance systems to governments deemed as oppressive, countries in Europe and North America have also done so, albeit more covertly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-surveillance-creep-how-big-data-covid-monitoring-could-be-used-to-control-people-post-pandemic-164788">China's 'surveillance creep': how big data COVID monitoring could be used to control people post-pandemic</a>
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<h2>China supports surveillance exports, regardless of the destination</h2>
<p>China falls in the direct line of fire for criticism on this front. </p>
<p>First, the country follows an authoritarian system. In a <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-04/15/c_137112987.htm">compilation of speeches</a> by President Xi Jinping from 2012-18, he critiqued western political systems and called for greater “<a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202107/09/WS60e6957ca310efa1bd66094e.html">South-South collaboration</a>” between China and countries in the developing world. </p>
<p>These views have since been incorporated as part of a new national ideology and China’s influential Belt and Road Initiative.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428137/original/file-20211024-19-opsokb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, walks with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a 2018 China-Africa summit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lintao Zhang/AP</span></span>
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<p>Second, both Chinese <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1146179.shtml">companies</a> and the Chinese <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-04/15/c_137112987.htm">government</a> have firmly maintained that countries are free to decide what they want to do with the technologies they purchase from China. They are neutral actors selling neutral technologies to other countries.</p>
<p>China is the largest exporter of <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_bis_e.htm">telecommunications equipment</a>, computers, and telephones in the world, with the <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn?viztypeSelector=trendsType1">US as its biggest destination</a>. It has also exported digital infrastructure to more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/china-is-exporting-its-digital-authoritarianism/2020/08/05/f14df896-d047-11ea-8c55-61e7fa5e82ab_story.html">60 mostly developing countries</a> through its Belt and Road Initiative.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keep-calm-but-dont-just-carry-on-how-to-deal-with-chinas-mass-surveillance-of-thousands-of-australians-146103">Keep calm, but don't just carry on: how to deal with China's mass surveillance of thousands of Australians</a>
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<p>Some of the most problematic exports of Chinese surveillance technologies include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/mapping-more-chinas-tech-giants">CloudWalk’s</a> facial recognition database in Zimbabwe, which opponents <a href="https://www.thestandard.co.zw/2020/03/01/creating-surveillance-state-ed-govt-zooms-critics-chinese-help/">say</a> may be used to monitor government critics</p></li>
<li><p>technicians from Huawei <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-technicians-helped-african-governments-spy-on-political-opponents-11565793017">engaging</a> in political espionage in Uganda and Zambia </p></li>
<li><p>the development of a controversial new “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/venezuela-zte/">fatherland card</a>” to monitor civilian activities in Venezuela</p></li>
<li><p>the sale of smart <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/24/technology/ecuador-surveillance-cameras-police-government.html">video surveillance technologies</a> to the previous authoritarian government of Ecuador.</p></li>
</ul>
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<h2>The ‘tech neutrality’ cloak for western companies</h2>
<p>However, Chinese companies are not the only actors in the global trade arena that benefit from the argument of “technological neutrality”. </p>
<p>Companies from Europe and North America jumped at the first chance they got to sell surveillance systems to China in the early 2000s. Many of those technologies strengthened China’s online censorship system.</p>
<p>In a watershed report in 2001, an independent researcher, <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.696199/publication.html">Greg Walton</a>, showed that international companies started marketing their products to Chinese public security agencies as early as 2000 during a large security expo in Beijing. The same <a href="http://www.chinaexhibition.com/Official_Site/11-9828-CPSE_2019_-_The_17th_China_Public_Security_Expo.html">expo</a> continued to attract international companies until the COVID-19 travel disruptions in 2020.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.jamestgriffiths.com/">2006</a>, Cisco was investigated by a US House subcommittee for selling surveillance technologies to China. The company defended itself by stressing its right to international trade and technological neutrality. </p>
<p>A couple of years later, Cisco <a href="https://www.crn.com/news/networking/207801396/cisco-denies-aiding-chinese-web-censorship.htm">again defended its right</a> to sell to China in a meeting with the US Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Human Rights. A representative of the company <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2007/11/01/cisco-china-investments-markets-equity-cx_ml_1101markets17.html?sh=43e3cf8d4e74">argued</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>One thing tech companies cannot do, in my opinion, is involve themselves in politics of a country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Earlier this year, investigative journalist Mara Hvistendahl also <a href="https://theintercept.com/2021/05/25/oracle-social-media-surveillance-protests-endeca/">reported</a> that Oracle (the same company that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/technology/tiktok-microsoft-oracle-bytedance.html">won the bid</a> to co-host TikTok’s data in the US) had pitched its predictive policing analytics to public security agencies in China.</p>
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<p>And in 2019, the UK <a href="https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/resource/exporting-repression-how-britain-supplying-surveillance-technology-human-rights-abusing/">was found</a> to have exported telecommunications interception equipment to multiple countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p>
<p>A political science researcher at the University of Cape Town, <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2021/09/09/dont-blame-china-for-rise-of-digital-authoritarianism-africa-surveillance-capitalism/">Mandira Bagwandeen</a>, argues it’s easy to point fingers to China, diverting attention from other countries.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Let’s face it, if the US was really serious about restricting the spread of so-called ‘authoritarian technology’, then it should also impose comprehensive measures and restrictions on both democratic and autocratic producers.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>We need better monitoring of the surveillance tech trade</h2>
<p>The fact is surveillance technologies with the capability to gather and analyse information about people are <a href="https://www.crimejusticejournal.com/article/view/1908/1107">inherently political</a>. </p>
<p>Princeton University Professor Xu Xu <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12514">argues</a> that digital surveillance resolves the “information problem” in authoritarian countries by allowing dictators to more easily identify those with anti-regime beliefs.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/police-access-to-covid-check-in-data-is-an-affront-to-our-privacy-we-need-stronger-and-more-consistent-rules-in-place-167360">Police access to COVID check-in data is an affront to our privacy. We need stronger and more consistent rules in place</a>
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</p>
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<p>But regulating new technologies is difficult even in democratic countries. Australia is seeing this play out with the unregulated use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/number-plate-recognition-the-technology-behind-the-rhetoric-17572">number plate recognition technologies</a> by the police to monitor lockdown compliance. </p>
<p>The police have also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/contact-tracing-and-nothing-else-greens-bid-to-ban-police-from-qr-code-data-20211006-p58xmo.html">tried to use</a> COVID QR code check-in data numerous times as part of criminal investigations.</p>
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<p>Unlike other electronics goods, surveillance technologies have the capability to shape and restrict people’s lives, rights and freedoms. This is why it is important they are regulated. </p>
<p>While it may be difficult to enact a <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/bb167041-en/1/3/1/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/bb167041-en&_csp_=509e10cb8ea8559b6f9cc53015e8814d&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=book#section-14">unified set of rules internationally</a> given the current tensions between China and the west, better monitoring and regulations at the domestic level could be the way forward.</p>
<p>One large initiative is a multi-year project run by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute to map the <a href="https://chinatechmap.aspi.org.au/#/homepage">international expansion of Chinese technology companies</a>. </p>
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<p>This is helping to monitor the activities of Chinese surveillance tech companies and providing data for government policy briefs. When iFlytek, a Chinese artificial intelligence technology company tied to surveillance of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, marketed its products in New Zealand, the <a href="https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2021/03/new-zealand-links-to-iflytek/">media relied on ASPI’s findings</a> to pressure a New Zealand company to cease its collaborations with the company. </p>
<p>And the European Parliament commissioned and published an extensive report on <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/662926/IPOL_STU(2021)662926_EN.pdf">artificial intelligence</a> in June 2021, which recommended establishing a security commission and new research centre devoted to AI issues. It remains to be seen whether the report has any teeth, but it is the kind of start we need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ausma Bernot does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While it may be difficult to enact a global set of regulations on surveillance technologies, individual countries can take the lead with enhanced monitoring and stronger laws.Ausma Bernot, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1465662020-09-22T04:23:36Z2020-09-22T04:23:36ZTrump’s TikTok deal explained: who is Oracle? Why Walmart? And what does it mean for our data?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359205/original/file-20200921-14-w06chf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C22%2C5102%2C3011&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Plot twists in the TikTok saga continue to emerge daily, with a proposed deal to secure the future of the video sharing platform in the United States now in doubt. </p>
<p>Under the deal — which US President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/19/21437850/president-trump-approves-oracle-tiktok-partnership-bytedance-china-ban">initially approved</a> but now <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/oracle-deal-for-us-tiktok-now-in-doubt-after-trump-china-remarks-20200922-p55xvy.html">may not</a> — US computer tech firm Oracle and retailer Walmart proposed a joint venture called TikTok Global, which would see customer data move to US-controlled infrastructure.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308208656945688576"}"></div></p>
<p>This venture would have allowed TikTok to continue operating in the US. Trump had earlier <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/20/21447702/tiktok-wechat-avoid-ban-china-trump-apps">ordered</a> TikTok to be <a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/09/tiktok-wechat-to-be-pulled-from-us-app-stores-as-of-september-20/">removed from mobile app stores</a> but enforcement of the order could be delayed if the Oracle-Walmart deal goes ahead.</p>
<p>Questions remain: what difference will this deal (if approved) make to the TikTok service; how will it affect the security concerns for governments (and users) in the US and Australia; and is this just political posturing with the US elections looming?</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-lots-to-lose-and-little-to-gain-by-banning-tiktok-and-wechat-144478">The US has lots to lose and little to gain by banning TikTok and WeChat</a>
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<h2>The Oracle-Walmart deal</h2>
<p>This deal would see Oracle and Walmart take around 20% of TikTok Global, with ByteDance (the Beijing-based owner of TikTok) retaining 80%.</p>
<p>News reports suggest Walmart and Oracle may <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-hits-a-grand-slam-with-its-tik-tok-deal-with-oracle-110306137.html">pay a combined US$12 billion</a> for their stake in TikTok Global.</p>
<p>Trump has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/20/business/trump-education-fund/index.html">said</a> he wants US$5 billion from companies creating TikTok Global to go into an education fund to teach American children “the real history of our country”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308104703209869313"}"></div></p>
<p>ByteDance had earlier this month <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-14/tiktok-rejects-microsoft-bid-clearing-path-for-oracle/12661984">rejected a plan</a> by Microsoft to buy the US arm of TikTok, which cleared the way for the Oracle deal. Oracle’s involvement was likely influenced by a <a href="https://www.oracle.com/corporate/pressrelease/zoom-selects-oracle-to-support-growth-042820.html">recent decision by video meeting software firm Zoom to use Oracle cloud infrastructure</a>. Oracle’s surprise win in that deal over more familiar names such as Amazon Web Services was a public relations boon for Oracle.</p>
<p>Walmart was an unexpected contender for the TikTok Global partnership, but it makes sense; access to the TikTok user base opens <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-hits-a-grand-slam-with-its-tik-tok-deal-with-oracle-110306137.html">significant marketing opportunities</a> for Walmart to benefit from a large, younger audience.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for TikTok users?</h2>
<p>If the deal goes ahead — and that is far from certain — most users will not notice any difference. TikTok users will still be able to make viral videos and confuse non-TikTok users. </p>
<p>As TikTok already <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/today/tiktok-privacy-company-insists-australian-users-their-data-is-safe/87b32c68-aa8d-4417-ae74-88fd06beb1e2">stores data in the US or Singapore</a>, the move to Oracle-provided infrastructure is unlikely to have any tangible impact on users.</p>
<p>The (claimed) <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/8/11/21363092/why-is-tiktok-national-security-threat-wechat-trump-ban">national security concerns</a> will likely remain – if ByteDance retains a significant share in TikTok Global, there will still be US concerns over Chinese government influence.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-attempts-to-ban-tiktok-and-other-chinese-tech-undermine-global-democracy-144144">Trump's attempts to ban TikTok and other Chinese tech undermine global democracy</a>
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<p>The potential for the Chinese Communist Party to demand access to user data through its <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/beijings-new-national-intelligence-law-defense-offense">National Intelligence Law</a> will still be of concern, as the law applies to any Chinese-owned company (and being the majority stakeholder may be enough to enable such powers to be applied). </p>
<p>This hasn’t been put to the test yet, but in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/huawei-would-have-to-give-data-to-china-government-if-asked-experts.html">a similar discussion relating to Huawei 5G technology</a>, China law expert and New York University professor Jerome Cohen said there was “no way Huawei can resist any order from the [People’s Republic of China] government or the Chinese Communist Party to do its bidding in any context, commercial or otherwise.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young man gestures at a phone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359226/original/file-20200922-16-m2wzll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TikTok’s main user base tends to be younger people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course the same is true for any US-owned organisation, thanks to the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4943">Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data (CLOUD) Act</a>, which gives the US government very similar powers. </p>
<p>So even if ByteDance sold the entire TikTok platform to a US company, Australian users’ data would still be subject to access requests; they’d just be from the US government rather than the Chinese Communist Party.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Oracle was quick to provide reassurances over data security, with chief executive Safra Cruz <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-chosen-as-tiktoks-secure-cloud-provider-301134314.html">saying</a> he was “100% confident in our ability to deliver a highly secure environment to TikTok and ensure data privacy to TikTok’s American users, and users throughout the world.”</p>
<p>Setting aside concerns over location and access to user data, the proposed deal would still seem to leave the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3101362/tiktoks-algorithm-not-sale-bytedance-tells-us-source">TikTok algorithms in the hands of ByteDance</a>. This may yet cause the deal to fail, and seems to be at odds with Trump’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one-departure-092020/">comment</a> that the deal:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… will have nothing to do with China. It’ll be totally secure.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>How much of this is influenced by politics?</h2>
<p>In the lead-up to the November US elections, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-protecting-america-chinas-efforts-steal-technology-intellectual-property/">Trump has promoted a narrative that he is the “protector” of Americans</a> against external, particularly Chinese, threats — from coronavirus to Tik Tok. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/business/economy/court-wechat-ban.html">Californian federal judge</a> has halted Trump’s attempt to limit Chinese social media apps. The fact this happened in a state led by a <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@cagovernor?source=h5_m">Democrat, Tik-Tok-using governor</a> allows Trump to accuse his rivals of blocking his efforts.</p>
<p>The deal is still up in the air. Trump might have been happy with a win, but whether or not he gets one doesn’t matter. He’s already cast China as a threat, he’s <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/tiktok-china-trump">deflected attention from COVID-19 and focused the discussion on a foreign government</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A phone sits against the Oracle brand logo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359218/original/file-20200922-14-11aeir1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oracle is a US-based multinational computer technology corporation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But what does all this mean for Australians? Ultimately, not much.</p>
<p>Australia doesn’t use China as a scapegoat in the way Trump’s America has. And although <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/china-australia-deteriorating-trade-diplomatic-relationship/12618738">relations with China are strained</a>, Australians are more acutely aware of our financial and cultural ties with China. In the US, China’s public influence is niche and diluted. </p>
<p>At the end of the day, though, Trump railing against China is like the father of a teenage girl hating his daughter’s boyfriend. He can make a lot of noise about it, but, in the end, his influence is limited. She’s going to grow up and do whatever she wants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plot twists in the TikTok saga continue to emerge daily, with a proposed deal to secure its future in the US now in doubt. Here’s what it means for TikTok users — and for geopolitics.Paul Haskell-Dowland, Associate Dean (Computing and Security), Edith Cowan UniversityNathalie Collins, Academic Director (National Programs), Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/901242018-02-24T10:38:00Z2018-02-24T10:38:00ZOracles and models: ancient and modern ways of telling the future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205034/original/file-20180206-14072-1ca1liw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Oracle_of_Delphi_Entranced.jpg">Heinrich Leutemann [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When something unexpected happens to us we still tend to ask “why me?” – and it’s difficult to know where to look for an answer.</p>
<p>While scientific analysis can provide us with better general comprehension of how the world works, it doesn’t always help us to understand our own experience. And public discussions of risk all too often become arguments about who is to blame, for example, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/10629749/UK-flooding-homeowners-knew-the-risk-says-Environment-Agency-chairman.html">after disastrous flooding</a>.</p>
<p>In previous eras, we might have turned to the language of fate, luck and fortune. But although still used colloquially, these concepts have lost their explanatory power. In many ways, this is surely a good thing: ideas of fate, luck and fortune have often been linked to moral judgements about people, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9600878/ns/msnbc-morning_joe/t/hurricane-katrina-wrath-god/#.WoiIRHxG0dU">as happened after Hurricane Katrina</a>. </p>
<p>But we can also learn a lot from history, specifically the Ancient Greeks and how they conceptualised fate, luck and fortune, and tried to anticipate the future.</p>
<h2>Ancient futures</h2>
<p>In Ancient Greek culture, fate, luck and fortune were familiar, everyday concepts. They were not just imposed by the gods, but were themselves divine forces, invisibly disrupting people’s lives. </p>
<p>People coped by trying to engage with these forces. One way was to <a href="https://quatr.us/greeks/oracles-ancient-greece.htm">visit an oracle</a> – a temple or sanctuary where a supernatural figure could provide insights into matters that were hidden or unclear, such as future events. The most famous oracle was at Delphi in central Greece, where a woman (<a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Pythia/">the Pythia</a>), possessed by the god Apollo, answered questions posed to her, often by representatives of city-states.</p>
<p>Examining the thinking behind deciding to visit an oracle can help us to understand why people did this. Before visiting an oracle, to make sure they got the most useful response, consultants had to phrase their questions carefully. To do this they had to reflect on the different ways in which their futures might work out.</p>
<p>Once they had an answer from the oracle, they had to work out what it meant. Scholarship is undecided as to whether Delphi’s responses were <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3287085">given as riddles</a> that had to be solved or <a href="https://www.yes-no-oracle.com/dice-oracle.php">as simple “yes” or “no” responses</a>. Either way, visitors would still have had to try to fit the answer they received to a likely future outcome – and decide on what action they would take.</p>
<h2>Trust in your wooden wall</h2>
<p>Herodotus, the fifth-century BC historian of the Persian Wars gives <a href="http://www.pbs.org/empires/thegreeks/characters/themistocles_p8.html">a famous example</a> of this process. He relates how, as the Persian invaders approached, the city of Athens sent ambassadors to Delphi. The first oracle they received was one of impending doom. The ambassadors felt they could not take this message back to Athens, so they asked for another. </p>
<p>The second oracle was more puzzling: long and full of vivid imagery, it included the idea that a wooden wall would help the Athenians. The ambassadors took this oracle back to Athens, where the citizens discussed its meaning. Different groups interpreted it differently, and pursued various courses of action, but the majority followed the military commander, Themistocles. He argued that the wooden wall represented the navy and that Delphi was foretelling an Athenian naval victory at Salamis – which, as history tells us, is what actually happened.</p>
<p>True or not, this episode provides two important insights into ancient Greek futures thinking. First, the Athenians seem to have conceived of their future as being both plural and full of possibilities. Their future was not set in stone, but was something fluid that they could influence. Second, that in the process of thinking about the future, they exercised a crucial skill: storytelling.</p>
<h2>Storytelling and uncertainty</h2>
<p>We all tell stories – it’s so natural we rarely think about it. But in fact, storytelling is a crucial tool for dealing with the unexpected. If we can explore different possible multiple narratives about how the future might turn out, we can make more informed decisions in the present. </p>
<p>In the process of developing different stories about, and imagining our roles in, different possible futures, there’s room for further learning – about ourselves, and how we respond to particular situations.</p>
<p>The everyday process of storytelling can support us as individuals in dealing with the unexpected, and – at the policy level – inform how we plan for the future. My discussions on this subject with <a href="https://royalsociety.org/people/claire-craig-9083/">Claire Craig</a> (chief science policy officer at the Royal Society – here acting in a personal capacity) suggest that thinking about ancient oracles and how they work brings us face-to-face with some aspects of modern approaches to dealing with risk and uncertainty.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206762/original/file-20180216-131003-1i95bbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The modern-day oracle speaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-analytics-financial-technology-concept-3d-730273642?src=ENeJGcs9HO5OyfzYfJX2vQ-1-14">Ditty_about_summer via Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of the most important approaches to coping with unexpected events, from economics to the weather, involve modelling: these include <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/12000755">scenario planning</a> (an approach to strategy that uses storytelling) and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/682579/computational-modelling-blackett-review.pdf">computational modelling</a>. These approaches enable us to imagine in detail what it would be like if a particular future came about.</p>
<h2>Exploring the future</h2>
<p>This does not mean that this approach can tell us what will happen – none of us knows how the future will develop and no model can tell us exactly. We must still think critically about how models are used as evidence, what answers they provide and how the uncertainties around them are presented. </p>
<p>We also need to take account of what is known about how individuals react to new and challenging information. For example, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/confirmation-bias-a-psychological-phenomenon-that-helps-explain-why-pundits-got-it-wrong-68781">effects of confirmation bias</a> may mean that it is difficult for people to change their minds; and individual decisions will be shaped by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/innovation-managing-risk-not-avoiding-it">interplay of analysis and emotion</a>.</p>
<p>But telling stories about the future does enable us to explore different possible answers. We can learn a lot from examining the futures that models depict and reflecting on how those imagined environments could shape our behaviour. </p>
<p>Modelling, oracles: both are technologies of anticipation. With both technologies we need to craft our future stories with care: paying attention to the questions we ask, as well as the answers we create. Perhaps one of the insights from thinking about our pasts is how to approach our futures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esther Eidinow receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>There’s a surprising amount in common between ancient ways of thinking about the future and the techniques we use now.Esther Eidinow, Professor of Ancient History, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/617382016-07-21T20:17:54Z2016-07-21T20:17:54ZFriday essay: secrets of the Delphic Oracle and how it speaks to us today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131329/original/image-20160721-31129-11e95cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Temple of Apollo at Delphi, where the wisdom of the oracle was dispensed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Janet Lackey/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a place to go in times of doubt and uncertainty, where one can find out what to do and what to avoid, straight from a reliable source. A place where all questions have tangible answers and all problems a solution. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, such a place does not exist today. But did it once? </p>
<p>In the ancient world, oracles such as the one at Delphi famously promised to reveal the past, present and future. They were the apex of a sizeable pyramid of institutions and individuals dealing in futures (of the non-economic kind), which also included itinerant seers and personal oracle collections. </p>
<p>Yet Delphi and its like rarely provided simple answers. Take the famous example of King Croesus of Lydia. Croesus asked at Delphi whether he should wage war against the Persians. He was told that he would destroy a great empire. </p>
<p>Taking the response to predict victory, he launched a military confrontation with Xerxes, Persia’s mighty king. Croesus did end up destroying an empire – his own. </p>
<p>This example is by no means unique. The ancient historian <a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-the-histories-by-herodotus-53748">Herodotus</a>, who reports it in The Histories, cites many similar stories of prediction and fulfilment. And the picture does not look much different in many other ancient reports of Delphic prophecies. </p>
<p>More often than not, it seems, those drawing on the gods to know the unknowable did not receive a straightforward answer. Instead, they faced a new question: did they understand the real meaning of the prophecy? </p>
<h2>A voice of authority</h2>
<p>In the ancient world, the Delphic Oracle was the highest religious authority. Nestled on Mount Parnassus in Phocis in central Greece, the oracle was open for business once a month except during winter. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131309/original/image-20160720-31134-171649y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Veduta Of Delphi, With A Sacrificial Procession by Claude Lorrain, (1645).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the core of the oracle’s operations was a priestess, the Pythia, who delivered the responses directly to the enquirer from the inner sanctum of Apollo’s temple. She was considered a mouthpiece of the omniscient god of prophecy. </p>
<p>On consultation day, people flocked to Delphi to enquire about an eclectic mix of concerns: politics and warfare, of course, but also religion, health, lovesickness and offspring – to name just a few issues. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1212&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1212&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1212&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131303/original/image-20160720-31137-j3xg0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Priestess of Delphi by John Collier, 1891.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among those consulting the oracle were some of the most (in)famous and illustrious individuals of the ancient world. Socrates’ friend Chaerephon enquired whether anyone was wiser than Socrates. Apparently he was told that no-one was. </p>
<p>Yet what did this really mean – that Socrates was indeed the wisest person in the world or that there was someone equally knowledgeable? Another predictable question is the one Cicero asked: how to become famous.</p>
<p>The neurotic Roman emperor Nero, meanwhile, tried to learn the timing of his own death from the Delphic oracle. He was told to “beware of the 73rd year” and so considered himself safe, but was murdered shortly after by Galba who was – you guessed it – 73 years old. </p>
<p>Alexander the Great did not even get to ask a question, arriving at the oracle on a day it was closed. The Pythia declined to deliver prophecies. Yet “no” was never an option for Alexander. </p>
<p>When he tried to drag the priestess into the temple by force, she cried, “You are invincible, youth!” – whereupon Alexander turned around and left. He had the prediction he wanted. </p>
<p>Everyone, it seems, got the oracle they deserved. The questions asked at Delphi and at the numerous other oracular centres of the ancient world reveal as much about the enquirer as the capacity of the Pythia to anticipate past, present and future events. </p>
<h2>How did it work?</h2>
<p>How did the Pythia deliver the prophecies? Modern visitors to the oracle are obsessed by the question. Surely there is a secret to be revealed? A mystery to be uncovered? Or at least a clever trick to be unmasked? </p>
<p>Interestingly, the ancients themselves seemed entirely oblivious to the “how”. They did not ask – let alone answer it for us in any satisfying way.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131310/original/image-20160720-31125-m0ebzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">King Aegeus consults the Pythia, who is seated. Attic red-figure kylix, 440–430 BC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Was the answer obvious to them? Or was this, perhaps, a religious secret not to be discussed? Whatever the case, for years, the theory that the Pythia was “inspired” by vapours emerging from the ground has fascinated present-day visitors of the ancient oracle. </p>
<p>This theory, based on late, unreliable and misunderstood evidence, has once again been reignited by <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2001/010717/full/news010719-10.html">new geological research</a> in the area of Delphi demonstrating the presence of light hydrocarbon gases, which are known to have hallucinogenic effects. The mystery lives on – as do the vapours. </p>
<p>One thing, however, is clear as soon as one considers the prophecies themselves. The oracles that have come down to us – around 600 questions and answers from Delphi preserved in a wide range of historical and literary texts and in the form of inscriptions – are not the result of some drug-induced state of mind. Most likely they are the product of oral tradition spun around events that may or may not have really happened at Delphi and elsewhere.</p>
<p>As a result, many oracles are like poetry in the often astonishing and exhilarating ways their central images and metaphors always and invariably find a specific referent in the world: figurative and concrete, allusive and illusive.</p>
<p>Phalanthus of Sparta, for example, received a prediction that he would win both a city and a territory “when rain falls from cloudless sky”. After several failed attempts to take a city, he remembered the oracle. Surely it was impossible for him ever to win military success – just as unlikely as for rain to fall from clear sky.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131340/original/image-20160721-31137-ebkbmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In despair, he laid his head in his wife’s lap and bemoaned his fate. His wife, however, felt such sympathy for her husband that she started to cry. </p>
<p>Her name, we learn, was Aethra (ancient Greek for “clear sky”) and her tears the drops of rain that fell seemingly out of the blue. The same night Phalanthus sacked the city of Tarentum in southern Italy.</p>
<h2>The real and the imaginary</h2>
<p>Oracles like this one typically feature paradoxes, metaphors and images that are also the heart of poetic language. The reading of these prophecies, then, requires extraordinary diligence, a special sense for words and their meaning, and the willingness and capacity to look at the world in new and creative ways.</p>
<p>The exiled king Arcesilaus enquired at Delphi about the possibility of returning to Cyrene. The oracle foretold that his family would remain in power for eight generations, but added a personal message to the king: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>As for yourself, when you return to your country, be gentle. If you find the oven full of jars, do not bake them but send them off with the wind. But if you do heat the oven, enter not the land surrounded by water, for otherwise you will die, and the best of the bulls with you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>After his return to Cyrene, Arcesilaus took great care to sidestep the prophecy but readily took revenge on his adversaries. When some of them fled into a tower, he had wood stacked around it and set it on fire. Too late he registered that in doing so he had “heated the oven full of jars”. Arcesilaus died soon after in the coastal town of Barca. </p>
<p>Some oracles and the accounts told about them are not authentic. The Pythia cannot possibly have predicted the events leading up to Arcesilaus’ death. Yet this does not mean we can simply dismiss this evidence as the stuff of literary fiction. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131307/original/image-20160720-31151-bnnno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lycurgus Consulting the Pythia by Eugene Delacroix, 1835/1845.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Questions of authenticity are relevant to the social and political histories of the ancient world and the role of oracles within them. The cultural historian and historians of religions also want to know: What kind of questions did the ancients put to the oracle, real or imaginary? How far into the future did they look? And what religious beliefs, insights and general truths are contained in the stories told about the oracle?</p>
<p>For the ancients, Delphi was as much a place of the real as the imaginary. It was a site to which one could travel and ask questions. But it was also – perhaps even more so – an imaginary site around which meaningful religious narratives could be spun. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131339/original/image-20160721-31137-1k5pwu7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Remains of the Oracle of Zeus at Dodona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The evidence from another oracular site confirms this. At the Oracle of Zeus at Dodona, enquirers at the oracle wrote their questions onto lead tablets, which were then folded and submitted to the sanctuary. Hundreds of these tablets have been found, giving very good insight into the questions asked at that oracle:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Did Dorkilos steal the cloth?</p>
<p>God. Gerioton asks Zeus concerning a wife whether it is better for him to take one.</p>
<p>Cleotas asks Zeus and Dione if it is better and profitable for him to keep sheep.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And, <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8674516&fileId=S0075426900094064">somewhat more sensitively</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Lysanias asks Zeus Naios and Deona whether the child is not from him with which Annyla is pregnant.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In their straightforwardness, these questions resemble those oracles from Delphi that were inscribed in stone right after the consultation and so less likely to be subject to embellishment. Taken together, this evidence illustrates that in the main very simple questions were asked at oracles – relegating the elaborate tales of prediction and fulfilment to the realm of the imaginary. </p>
<p>Note also that to answer these questions does not require great predictive capacities. Good common sense and, perhaps, some insight is all that’s needed. Nor do these questions really concern the deep future: mostly they reflect simple concerns of the day to day. </p>
<h2>Delphi’s modern legacy</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, the Delphic oracle is no longer in business – at least, not of the oracular kind. In 390/1 CE the Roman emperor Theodosius I closed it down in a bid to end pagan cults. However, the excavated site is now a booming tourist destination and well worth the visit. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131330/original/image-20160721-31125-1wg2j4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Altar of Apollo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andy Hay/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Every time has its own oracles. The legacy of Delphi lies not so much in fortune-tellers, soothsayers and horoscopes: the central and authoritative role of the oracle in the ancient world is reflected in more serious ways we try to anticipate the future.</p>
<p>We have an enduring desire to enquire into what is beyond the here and now, which manifests in our – frequently futile – attempts to control what comes next.</p>
<p>Economic forecasts try to model future expectations based on past experiences, but – much like ambiguous oracles – they are usually vague enough to allow for a way out if things go wrong: <em>past returns do not indicate future gains…</em></p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131332/original/image-20160721-31159-vh1bmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A modern oracle?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jeffrey L. Cohen/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Google and other search engines invoke the idea that the entire, collective knowledge of humanity – everything that can possibly be known – is only a few clicks away. This is, of course, mere illusion. As with the ancient oracles, answers provided in this way are only ever as good as the question asked.</p>
<p>Finally, the language in which many politicians cloak promises of events to come is directly reminiscent of the metaphors and ambiguities of many Delphic responses. The example of Croesus’ “great empire that will be destroyed” seems uncomfortably apposite in light of modern-day conflicts and international politics.</p>
<h2>Know thyself!</h2>
<p>Given that the oracular is still very much alive we may wonder how Delphi still speaks to us today, which insights remain relevant and what kind of knowledge stands the test of time. </p>
<p>The ancients themselves asked the oracle that last question. Both Croesus of Lydia and Chilon of Sparta enquired at Delphi about what was best to know. Both received a response saying that to “know thyself” (<em>gnōthi seauton</em>) was best.</p>
<p>Know thyself! In many ways this is the tag line of the Delphic brand. The motto was inscribed into the forecourt of the temple of Apollo at Delphi, clearly visible to those wishing to consult the oracle. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131338/original/image-20160721-31137-22bsca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Head of Nero (reign 54–68 CE). After 64 BC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is also the implicit moral message of many accounts of oracle consultations recounting the (frequently unhappy) consequences of misinterpreting the oracle’s words. Overconfidence ends in downfall. If only Croesus had looked beyond his own circumstances… If only Nero had considered the world in more complex terms…</p>
<p>Oracles did not provide simple answers to simple questions – nor do their modern counterparts. Rather, all attempts to look into the future provide the incentive for us to examine our own expectations, to confront our own desires and our own ways of make-believe. </p>
<p>If we rise to the challenge we find more often than not that things are different from how they first appear. Delphi continues to remind those of us prepared to listen that, to be successful in the world, we must consider other realities which may look very different from our own.</p>
<p><br></p>
<hr>
<p><em>Have you ever been to “Delphi”? If not, check out the online <a href="http://www.homeromanteion.com">Homeromanteion</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61738/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Kindt receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).</span></em></p>Cicero asked: ‘how to become famous?’ Nero sought to know the timing of his death. The Oracle at Delphi offered pronouncements on all manner of topics - yet as with Google today, the question posed was as important as the answer.Julia Kindt, Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Classics and Ancient History, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/604182016-06-06T01:21:54Z2016-06-06T01:21:54ZGoogle wins in court, and so does losing party Oracle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125183/original/image-20160603-11620-15adj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Everybody wins!</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-402095701/stock-vector-gold-trophy-cup-of-winner-in-two-hands-illustration.html">Trophy and hands via shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Oracle <a href="http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/05/google-wins-trial-against-oracle-as-jury-finds-android-is-fair-use/">recently lost its attempt</a> to use patent and copyright law to force Google to pay US$9 billion for using parts of its Java computer language. Nine billion dollars isn’t chump change, not even for Google, but despite the verdict against Oracle, I’d say Google is not the only winner.</p>
<p>The dispute between the two internet giants was <a href="http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/05/how-oracle-made-its-case-against-google-in-pictures/">whether Google had needed Oracle’s permission to use computer code</a> called the Java API. The API, and therefore the legal issue, relates to some pretty technical details about how computer programs work – how the instructions programmers write are followed on different hardware devices and different software operating systems.</p>
<p>The outcome of the case, decided in parts by a judge, an appeals court and a jury, was that Google’s use of computer code didn’t violate Oracle’s patents, and that Oracle could copyright its code. However, the jury found that Google’s use did not violate the copyright restrictions because it significantly expanded on the existing copyrighted materials, an exception in law called “<a href="http://www.copyright.gov/fair-use/">fair use</a>.”</p>
<p>It is not only a victory for Google, which has done nothing wrong and need not pay Oracle any money. Programmers remain allowed to use a very popular programming language without fear of crippling legal penalties – which in turn benefits the public, who use <a href="https://github.com/trending/java">apps and websites made with Java</a>. And while technically the legal loser, Oracle also won in a way, because it will benefit from Java’s continued popularity.</p>
<h2>What’s an API?</h2>
<p>To understand the heart of the dispute, we first need to grasp what an Application Programming Interface (API) is and what it does for programmers. At its simplest, an API defines the specific details of how a program interacts with a computer’s operating system and the underlying hardware.</p>
<p>Computer manufacturers use a <a href="http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/whats-inside-your-computer-the-story-of-every-component-you-need-to-know-3/">wide range of specific components</a>: hard drives and memory storage units with different sizes, faster or slower processing chips, smaller and larger screens. They also choose <a href="http://www.computerworld.com/article/3050931/microsoft-windows/windows-comes-up-third-in-os-clash-two-years-early.html">different operating systems</a>, such as Windows, the Macintosh OS X, and Linux – each of which is regularly upgraded with a new version.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125184/original/image-20160603-11585-ehiq95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hoping to avoid nightmares: a Java programmer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AProgrammer_writing_code_with_Unit_Tests.jpg">Joonspoon</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each variation might handle basic functions differently – such as reading a file connecting to the internet, or drawing images on the screen. For a computer programmer, that is a nightmare. Nobody wants to write a program that works only on a <a href="http://www.dell.com/us/p/inspiron-15-3552-laptop/pd?oc=fncwc008sb&model_id=inspiron-15-3552-laptop">Dell laptop with a 15-inch screen, a 500 GB hard drive, 4 GB of RAM, running Windows 10</a> – and no other computer. And nobody wants to write the extremely large number of slight variations to make sure a program works on every machine, either.</p>
<p>The API solves that problem for the programmer, handling the complicated and difficult details of exactly how any specific computer will act. That leaves programmers free to concentrate on what they want a computer program to do, without having to worry about precisely how. It’s better for the user, too. If she has (for example) <a href="https://java.com/en/download/">Java installed</a> on whatever computer she uses, programs written in Java will run.</p>
<h2>Java itself</h2>
<p>The Java API contains methods for everything from reading and writing a file, to drawing on a screen, to handling web security certificates. Without a functioning copy of the API, programs in Java are fundamentally broken. Clearly, therefore, he who controls the API controls the language. </p>
<p>Oracle, when it <a href="http://www.oracle.com/us/corporate/press/018363">bought Sun Microsystems</a>, bought the rights to Java and its API. The crux of the legal battle was how this control is exerted and how far it extends.</p>
<p>No one denied that Oracle has a valid copyright on the language and API specification. This is a good thing. It means I can’t just make a copy of Java, give it a name (like “Darjeeling”), and call it a new language that I own. Similarly, a company can’t change the API arbitrarily and still call it the Java API.</p>
<h2>What did Google do?</h2>
<p>When it <a href="https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/first-android-powered-phone.html">released Android in 2008</a>, Google added software and hardware development to its existing internet service business. If its products were going to succeed, they needed to be able to run lots of interesting programs. The easiest way to do ensure that was to make sure the new devices could understand at least one computer language that’s already <a href="http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/the-2015-top-ten-programming-languages">widely used by programmers</a>. Java is a natural choice. </p>
<p>The alternative would have been to <a href="https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/67ef8sbd.aspx">create a new language</a>, but that pathway is fraught with difficulties. Introducing a new language requires convincing programmers that it is worth using and giving them time and resources to learn the language.</p>
<p>Once Google decided on Java, it needed to connect Java programs to Android’s hardware and software – it needed a Java API for Android.</p>
<h2>Sharing names for computer commands</h2>
<p>Rather than commissioning Oracle to write it, Google wrote the software in-house, customizing it for cellphone hardware. For example, Bluetooth, touch-screen gestures and telephone calls are not handled in Oracle’s standard Java API; they are solely in Android-specific code. </p>
<p>However, to be sure Android devices could run existing Java software, Google wrote its Android Java with some of the same commands as Oracle’s version of Java. Both Android and Oracle support the <a href="https://docs.oracle.com/javase/7/docs/api/java/io/package-summary.html">Java.io methods</a> that let programmers use the same <em>files.newInputStream(filename)</em> command to initiate the arcane and complex Java file-reading process. </p>
<p>Google didn’t copy the code Oracle had written for other hardware or software systems. It wrote <a href="https://developer.android.com/reference/classes.html">all-new Android-specific</a> instructions for devices to follow each command, but to help programmers, gave many common commands the same name Oracle used.</p>
<p>Oracle’s <a href="http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/04/oracles-ip-war-against-google-finally-going-to-trial-whats-at-stake/">lawyers sharpened their knives</a> and the battle was on. Could Google use the same names, even if the code they referred to was different?</p>
<h2>The stakes were high</h2>
<p>If Oracle had won, Java’s days as a primary programming language for Android – the <a href="https://bgr.com/2016/06/02/apples-mobile-market-share-sees-big-drop-in-may-as-android-skyrockets/">world’s most popular smartphone system</a> – were numbered. Very quickly, Google would have chosen a new language for Android programmers to use, and published a conversion tool to translate existing Java apps into the new language. Then it would have stopped supporting Java. (I suspect <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/">one of Oracle’s competitors</a> would have offered Google excellent licensing terms to choose another language.) </p>
<p>Programmers would have lost. The tools to write code for Android would have been, at a bare minimum, more expensive and less flexible. The public would have lost, because new and interesting apps would both be more expensive and released less frequently.</p>
<p>Finally, Oracle would have lost because programming in Java would no longer be a viable option for a major market. Computer languages compete for popularity, so fewer programmers would choose to program in Java, reducing the pool of people who were comfortable and competent in Java. Instead they would choose others, like <a href="https://www.python.org/">Python</a> or <a href="https://www.ruby-lang.org/en/">Ruby</a>. With fewer people working in Java, Oracle’s primary way of making money from it (creating <a href="https://www.oracle.com/java/index.html">Java-based computer systems</a> that can be expanded by third-party developers) would slowly decline.</p>
<p>Instead, while Oracle doesn’t get $9 billion from Google, the programming community – and those of us who use apps and websites every day – gets to keep using an important tool, without fear of a similarly large lawsuit in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Harrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Google saves $9 billion, programmers and users get to keep a popular language and its apps – and a key Oracle product stays alive.Robert Harrison, Professor of Computer Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/425172015-06-01T05:17:38Z2015-06-01T05:17:38ZOracle vs Google case threatens foundations of software design<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83402/original/image-20150529-15241-vuwpgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Copyright keeps appearing where it's not wanted.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/48690880@N03/5814893360">Christopher Dombres</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Java programming language, which has <a href="http://www.infoworld.com/article/2923773/java/java-at-20-how-java-changed-programming-forever.html">just turned 20 years old</a>, provides developers with a means to write code that is independent of the hardware it runs on: “<a href="http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Write-once-run-anywhere">write once, run anywhere</a>”. </p>
<p>But, ironically, while Java was intended to make programmers’ lives easier, the <a href="https://www.eff.org/cases/oracle-v-google">court case</a> between Oracle, Java’s owner, and Google over Google’s use of Java as the basis of its Android mobile operating system may make things considerably more difficult. </p>
<p>Google adopted Java for Android apps, using its own, rewritten version of the Java run-time environment (the <a href="https://anturis.com/blog/java-virtual-machine-the-essential-guide/">Java virtual machine</a> or VM) called <a href="https://source.android.com/devices/tech/dalvik/index.html">Dalvik</a>. The Oracle vs Google court case centres around the use of Java in Android, particularly in relation to Application Program Interface (API) calls. </p>
<p>An API is a standard set of interfaces that a developer can use to communicate with a useful piece of code – for example, to exchange input and output, access network connections, graphics hardware, hard disks, and so on. For developers, using an existing API means not having to reinvent the wheel by accessing ready-made code. For those creating APIs, making them publicly and freely accessible encourages developers to use them and create compatible software, which in turn makes it more attractive to end users. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.opengl.org/">OpenGL</a> and <a href="https://msdn.microsoft.com/library/windows/apps/hh452744">Microsoft’s DirectX</a> are two APIs that provide a standardised interface for developers to access 3D graphics hardware, as used in videogames or modelling applications. Hardware manufacturers ensure their hardware is compatible with the API standard, the OpenGL Consortium and Microsoft update their APIs to ensure the latest hardware capabilities are addressed and games developers get a straightforward interface compatible with many different types of hardware, making it easier to create games.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83441/original/image-20150530-15207-qaygn7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Java runtime and compatible Android equivalent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fight for your right to API</h2>
<p>Google designed Android so that Java developers could bring their code to Android by recreating (most of) the standard Java API calls used in the Java libraries and supported by the standard Java VM. The case revolves around whether doing this – by essentially re-creating the Java API rather than officially licensing it from Oracle – is a breach of copyright. If the case finds in favour of Oracle it will set a precedent that APIs are copyrightable, and so make developers lives a lot more legally complex.</p>
<p>To be clear, the case doesn’t revolve around any claim that Google reused actual code belonging to Oracle, but that the code it produced mimicked what Oracle’s Java run-time environment was capable of.</p>
<p>The initial finding came in May 2012, when a US court agreed with Google’s claim that using APIs them falls under fair use, and that Oracle’s copyright was not infringed. Then in May 2014, the US Federal Circuit reversed part of the ruling in favour of Oracle, especially related to the issue of copyright of an API. Now, at the US Supreme Court’s request, <a href="http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/05/white-house-sides-with-oracle-tells-supreme-court-apis-are-copyrightable/">the White House has weighed in</a> in Oracle’s favour.</p>
<h2>Can you ‘own’ an API?</h2>
<p>For most in the industry, a ruling that it’s possible to copyright an API would be a disaster. It would mean that many companies would have to pay extensive licence fees, and even face having to write their own APIs from scratch – even those needed to programmatically achieve only the simplest of things. If companies can prevent others from replicating their APIs through recourse to copyright law, then all third-party developers could be locked out. Also the actual call to the API and its functionality could be copyrighted too, so that the functionality would have to be different too, otherwise it would be a copy.</p>
<p>In the initial trial, District Judge William Alsup <a href="http://www.cnet.com/news/judge-william-alsup-master-of-the-court-and-java/">taught himself Java</a> to learn the foundation of the language. He decided that to allow the copyrighting of Java’s APIs would allow the copyrighting of an improbably broad range of generic (and therefore uncopyrightable) functions, such as interacting with window menus and interface controls. The Obama administration’s intervention is to emphasise its belief that the case should be decided on whether Google had a right under fair use to use Oracle’s APIs.</p>
<h2>It’s like the PC all over again</h2>
<p>Something like this has happened before. When IBM produced its original PC in 1981 (the <a href="http://oldcomputers.net/ibm5150.html">IBM 5150</a>), a key aspect was access to the system calls provided by the PC BIOS, which booted the computer and managed basic hardware such as keyboard, monitor, floppy disk drive and so on. Without access to the BIOS it wasn’t possible to create software for the computer. </p>
<p>One firm, Compaq, <a href="http://mashable.com/2014/05/29/halt-and-catch-fire-amc-compaq/">decided to reverse-engineer the BIOS calls</a> to create its own, compatible version – hence the term “IBM PC compatible” become standard language to describe a program that would run on an IBM model or any of the third-party hardware from other manufacturers that subsequently blossomed. IBM’s monopoly on the PC market was opened up, and the PC market exploded into what we see today – would this have happened had IBM been able to copyright its system calls?</p>
<p>So 20 years after the birth of Java, through the groundwork laid by its original creator, Sun Microsystems, Java has become one of the most popular programming languages in the world through being cross-platform and (mostly) open. But now it seems it ends in a trap. The wrong decision in this case could have a massive impact on the industry, where even using a button on a window could require some kind of licence – and licence fees. For software developers, it’s a horrible thought. Copyrighting APIs would lock many companies into complex agreements – and lock out many other developers from creating software for certain platforms.</p>
<p>For Google, there’s no way of extracting Java from Android now; its runaway success is bringing Google only a whole lot of problems. But as we go about building a world built on software, be assured that one way or another this ruling will have a massive effect on us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42517/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Buchanan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A decision against Google in its court case against Oracle this week could lay the ground for upheaval in the industry.Bill Buchanan, Head, Centre for Distributed Computing, Networks and Security, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/229032014-02-20T04:00:15Z2014-02-20T04:00:15ZThe new technologies needed for dealing with big data<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41918/original/4vczfkhx-1392784297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">MongoDB co-founder and chairman Dwight Merriman still writes code.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/techcrunch/8692673813/sizes/l/">TechCrunch/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While much focus and discussion of the so-called “Big Data revolution” has been on the data itself and the exciting new applications it is enabling — from Google’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-and-autonomous-robots-where-to-now-19879">self-driving cars</a> through to CSIRO and University of Tasmania’s better information systems for <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Portals/Media/Harvesting-smart-technologies-to-tackle-the-global-food-shortage.aspx">oyster farmers</a> — less focus has been on the underpinning technologies and the talent driving these technologies.</p>
<p>At the heart of the Big Data movement is a range of next generation database technologies that enable data to be amassed and analysed on a scale and speed hitherto unseen.</p>
<p>Global online services such as Google, Amazon and Facebook that serve billions of people around the world in real time have been made possible due to new technologies that divide tasks and files across banks of thousands of distributed computers. </p>
<h2>Storing the data</h2>
<p>Traditional database technologies are built around many tables of information like spreadsheets with rows and columns and a way of asking questions of these tables in a structured way.</p>
<p>The structured way of asking a question of these data collections was originally named SEQUEL (Structured English Query Language), later shortened to SQL. This is the technology that Oracle pioneered in the 1970s and it has served them well to become the undisputed king of database technology ever since. </p>
<p>If you are familiar with Excel, you’d be familiar with the type of information this kind of technology is suited to representing. Company accounts, marketing and sales figures over time are of course perfect.</p>
<p>But there are other types of data that isn’t so easily stored in this way such as storing the relationships in a social network (Facebook), or index of documents stored on the web (Google), or for large collections of digital music and video (Netflix).</p>
<p>Fortunately there are other ways to store information other than in tables such as in trees, graphs, or in lists with an index. And some of these approaches are much better suited for humungous data sets and for data sets that don’t naturally fit into a series of tables.</p>
<p>The growing demand to store and analyse very large bodies of information, and information that is not readily suited to storing in tables (unstructured data), has led to a rapid growth in the popularity of these alternative types of database technologies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41609/original/bv67hdyw-1392523822.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rising Tide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Trends.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Collectively they’ve become known as NoSQL technologies. Many of the leading technologies in this category are not developed by one company, such as Oracle or Microsoft, but instead are <a href="http://opensource.com/resources/what-open-source">open source</a> - developed by an open network of companies and independent developers and contributors akin to the way Wikipedia or Linux is developed. </p>
<h2>Next-generation database technology</h2>
<p>There are five key types of next-generation NoSQL data technologies. They are: </p>
<ol>
<li>Document Store — suitable for storing large collections of documents</li>
<li>Wide Column Store — for very rapid access to structured or semi structured data</li>
<li>Search Engine — suitable for full text indexing of documents </li>
<li>Key-Value Store – suitable for rapid access to unstructured data </li>
<li>Graph Database – suitable for storing graph type data such as social networks. </li>
</ol>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41612/original/3x4smfp6-1392527449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New data intensive applications are being made possible with a new generation of database technologies. James Ruffer holding up a Neo4j sticker at TechCamp Memphis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Jeremy Kendell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the leading technologies in each of these categories respectively are: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.mongodb.org/">MongoDb</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://cassandra.apache.org/">Cassandra</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://lucene.apache.org/solr/">Solr</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://redis.io/">Redis</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://www.neo4j.org/">Neo4j</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Note <a href="http://hadoop.apache.org/">Apache Hadoop</a>, which is also a leading technology, is not included in this list as it is a framework and file system and not a database technology (but can support many of these). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=141&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=141&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41607/original/z8tdx7w3-1392523117.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=141&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leading NoSQL Database technologies in each of top 5 categories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DB-Engines.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where there’s talent there’s fire</h2>
<p>By looking at the companies around the world who have the most employees with skills in each of these these frontier technologies, we can get a unique insight into organisations at the forefront of next generation big data applications.</p>
<p>Based on more extensive study, below is a map covering 40 leading global organisations that have the greatest number of specialists in each of the top five next-gen database technologies.</p>
<p><a href="http://tcmg.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/templates/OnePane/basicviewer/embed.html?webmap=34ab0b4565374548a5ab8826e03c3b92&gcsextent=-65.0563,-19.8422,118.8109,60.3959&displayslider=true&displaylegend=true&displaydetails=true" target="_blank"></a></p><a href="http://tcmg.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/templates/OnePane/basicviewer/embed.html?webmap=34ab0b4565374548a5ab8826e03c3b92&gcsextent=-65.0563,-19.8422,118.8109,60.3959&displayslider=true&displaylegend=true&displaydetails=true" target="_blank">
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<p>The more detailed country-by-country analysis has revealed some organisations such as Sky in the London, Goldman Sachs in NYC are leaders in the number people they have with skills in these emerging areas.</p></figcaption></figcaption><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor McCarthy has an senior executive role with SIRCA Limited mentioned in this article.
Authors note: The idea for this article came from the realisation that SIRCA may employ more specialists in a new generation Database technology known as Cassandra site in Australia. On further investigation, as it turned out to be true, I thought this would be a fascinating way to discover other leading companies at the forefront of Big Data Technology.</span></em></p>While much focus and discussion of the so-called “Big Data revolution” has been on the data itself and the exciting new applications it is enabling — from Google’s self-driving cars through to CSIRO and…Paul X. McCarthy, Adjunct Professor, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/194432013-11-15T01:17:06Z2013-11-15T01:17:06ZClouds bear down on computer hardware companies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34705/original/7zs9ztwp-1383867438.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dell and IBM are two companies feeling the pinch by the growing corporate shift towards cloud computing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mauritz Antin/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Amazon, known by most as an online department store, extended its web services business into Australia in 2012, few outside the IT sector noticed.</p>
<p>Data released last week by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission revealed Amazon Web Services grew from a A$1 million business in Australia in 2011 to a A$25 million business in 2012.</p>
<p>A rapidly growing aspect of Amazon’s global business is in providing technological resources underpinning many of the internet’s household names such as Pinterest, Spotify, Reddit, Foursquare and <a href="http://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/all/">others</a>. This now extends to major Australian brands including the Commonwealth Bank, MYOB, Suncorp and Fairfax.</p>
<p>Amazon Web Services is not only a growing part of Amazon’s future but is part of a more general trend that is disrupting and changing the way most businesses utilise both computers, and the technologies supporting their operations. This is bad news for companies such as IBM, HP and Dell that have made their money from selling physical boxes to customers.</p>
<p>The premise behind cloud computing is fairly simple. Instead of buying your own dedicated computers and housing them in a computer room, you utilise “virtual computers” and associated computing resources provided by the cloud provider. These virtual computers may be located in data centres around the world. </p>
<p>To the cloud computing user, the physical aspects of the service are largely unimportant. What is important are the numerous advantages that cloud computing offers over buying, owning and running your own data centre. There is no up-front cost in buying the hardware, setting it up, paying for a facility to house the computers or manage it on an ongoing basis. You simply pay for what you need and use adding to the configuration as your requirements change.</p>
<p>Companies like Amazon Web Services even provide the ability for users to specify that they want to use computing resources at times when it is cheaper.</p>
<p>The impact on companies such as IBM that have traditionally made money selling computer hardware is already being seen in their declining sales figures. In IBM’s last quarter, <a href="http://www.techworld.com.au/article/529289/ibm_results_hampered_by_slowing_hardware_sales/">sales</a> from its various hardware operations fell by 17% from the same quarter a year ago. This result was a continuation of the previous 5 quarters of <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/ibm-sales-fall-for-sixth-straight-quarter-as-hardware-slumps.html">declining revenue</a>. </p>
<p>The story has been repeated at other hardware companies such as HP. Their enterprise <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/08/22/hp_q3_f2013_numbers/">sales</a> have also steadily declined with server and storage revenue dropping in the last quarter around 10% from the previous year.</p>
<p>Like all companies that have a vested interest in preserving the status quo, companies like IBM had for some time turned a blind eye to the emergence of cloud computing and the meteoric rise of companies like Amazon and Microsoft in cloud services. IBM has now responded with a rapidly growing cloud platform business of its own, reportedly making US$1 billion in revenue for the third quarter of this year, but it is coming at the cost of not only operations but the loss of sales in hardware that these operations represent.</p>
<p>Cloud computing has largely been facilitated by virtualisation technology that allowed separate virtual computers to be run from a single physical computer. The advantages of this approach are that physical computers are rarely run at full capacity and running several virtual computers on a single physical box takes advantage of that fact. Also, computer data centres are constrained by space and the need for ever increasing amounts of power and cooling. For many data centres, it is the cost of the power to run them that becomes prohibitively expensive. Virtualisation partially addresses this issue, allowing for expansion without the increased demand for space and power.</p>
<p>Pioneers of virtualisation technology like VMWare have overseen the transformation of corporate data centres in moving from physical boxes running single computers to fully virtualised data centres. Even though VMWare has around 60% of <a href="http://readwrite.com/2013/08/26/vcloud-hybrid-service-cloud-vmware#awesm=%7EoltEFr072bzfoO">the market</a> for software virtualisation, their business has also been impacted by customers skipping the need for physical machines altogether and going straight to the cloud. Like the hardware vendors, VMWare is itself trying to offer a cloud service but like IBM, moving a customer to the cloud carries the penalty of lost revenue for its software.</p>
<p>With the number of companies offering cloud computing increasing daily, the future looks increasingly bleak for those companies that have relied on selling hardware and services associated with that. However, as with all things “cloudy”, the path of innovation never runs smoothly and there are some potential challenges for this industry too. </p>
<p>For non-US users of US cloud computing providers, issues of “data sovereignty” have long been an issue. Storing company data on computers that could potentially fall under US law or simply provide easy access to US security services is a significant risk. Even though companies such as Microsoft and Amazon have moved data centres outside of the US to try and tackle this issue, there is <a href="http://www.itnews.com.au/News/347687,quitting-the-cloud-over-prism.aspx">little faith</a> that this would protect European or Australian companies from US lawmakers should they wish to gain access.</p>
<p>As with all disruptive technological innovations, the move from old to new is gradual and it is unlikely that we will see everyone suddenly abandoning their data centres and moving all of their software onto the cloud. A recent <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/research-server-virtualization-and-mobile-computing-among-top-smb-technologies-7000017473/">report</a> showed the majority of the small to medium businesses surveyed were still working on virtualisation of their existing computing infrastructure. Given the investment in those changes, the subsequent move to the cloud will take longer. But in a world where most organisations will eventually utilise cloud computing in some capacity the future looks brighter for cloud services providers.</p>
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<p><em>This is the third piece in our series on the disruptive forces hurting big business.</em></p>
<p><em>Read the other pieces:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-theres-no-pepsi-in-cyberspace-19902">Why there’s no Pepsi in cyberspace</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sharing-economy-spooking-big-business-19541">The sharing economy spooking big business</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Glance has received a small grant from Amazon Web Services to investigate the use of Cloud Computing in tertiary education</span></em></p>When Amazon, known by most as an online department store, extended its web services business into Australia in 2012, few outside the IT sector noticed. Data released last week by the Australian Securities…David Glance, Director, Centre for Software Practice, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.