tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/policy-makers-24101/articlesPolicy makers – The Conversation2020-06-01T12:17:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1394322020-06-01T12:17:29Z2020-06-01T12:17:29ZClear masks for caregivers mean young children can keep learning from adults’ faces<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338577/original/file-20200529-78875-18d0wif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C5370%2C3601&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Babies love to look at faces for good reason. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mother-taking-care-of-baby-royalty-free-image/1216318518">monzenmachi/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As daycare centers and pre-kindergartens begin to reopen around the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/guidance-for-childcare.html">recommends masks be worn</a> by teachers, care workers and children over two years of age. </p>
<p>Important as they are for <a href="https://theconversation.com/masks-help-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-the-science-is-simple-and-im-one-of-100-experts-urging-governors-to-require-public-mask-wearing-138507">helping minimize the spread</a> of the coronavirus, masks come with a potential downside when worn around little kids. <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199559053.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199559053">Decades of research</a> has shown faces are an important tool for learning. With caregivers’ faces covered, infants and young children will miss out on some of the visual cues they’d normally get from faces.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=0CvEbZ0AAAAJ">I study visual learning</a> and recommend that policymakers and educators consider transparent face masks for use around infants and young children.</p>
<h2>Faces are key for little learners</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338590/original/file-20200529-78849-1vfegu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">All wired up and ready to go.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lisa Scott</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>When infants and children come to my <a href="https://bcdlab.psych.ufl.edu/">research lab</a> (with their families, of course), we show them pictures of faces on a computer screen, sometimes paired with sounds or words. Using tools like eye tracking technology and <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/eeg">EEG</a>, which measures electrical activity in the brain, we are able to observe what they’re paying attention to and learn more about how their brains are developing. These methods allow us to measure learning even before infants can talk. </p>
<p>Our work shows that infants pay close attention to eyes and mouths on faces. Infants also learn that two eyes are usually above a nose which is above a mouth, and they learn to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17470218.2016.1146780">combine these features into one whole</a>. Babies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721418769884">use faces as a tool</a> for learning from familiar people, like mom, dad or a care worker.</p>
<p>Infant brain responses change when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1068/p5493">faces are altered</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2010.02.008">turned upside down</a> or presented with conflicting information, like a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7687.2012.01138.x">happy face paired with a crying sound</a>. These changes in brain responses suggest that infants can tell when there is something different about a face. </p>
<p>Although they cannot yet speak, infants as young as six months of age <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.visres.2018.03.002">learn and understand names for new faces</a>. When similar-looking faces are presented in a book and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02348.x">paired with names</a>, babies are able to differentiate them. Learning to match a name with a face may be more difficult when faces are masked.</p>
<h2>Faces foster language development</h2>
<p>Research shows infants and children pay close attention to mouths <a href="https://llamblab.haskins.yale.edu/publications/">during important periods of language learning</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338587/original/file-20200529-78880-ds0wac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babies and young children zero in on mouths to learn language.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mother-holding-baby-and-talking-on-cell-phone-royalty-free-image/135385028">Sam Edwards/OJO Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Young babies shift their visual focus from looking primarily at the eyes of talking faces to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114783109">looking at the mouths</a> between 4 and 8 months of age. Infants begin to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1113380109">understand the meaning of familiar words</a> between 6 and 9 months of age. Looking toward the mouth increases as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2018.01.002">infant speaking skills increase</a>. Although this focus on the mouth decreases around 9 to 12 months of age, it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2018.03.009">increases again around 14 months</a> of age during word learning. Even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000750">5-year-olds show increased interest</a> in the mouths of talking faces compared to adults. </p>
<p>While it is unknown how covering the mouth will directly affect development at every age, these studies suggest that infants and children <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/brainsci4040613">use the mouths of faces as a tool</a> for learning to produce speech sounds and for learning new words. </p>
<h2>What should care workers and educators do?</h2>
<p>Wearing masks around infants and children during the first five years of life may reduce their ability to learn from auditory and visual cues – and this may negatively influence speech and language learning. Covering faces could also limit children’s ability to recognize familiar people and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/education-plus-development/2020/04/21/are-you-happy-or-sad-how-wearing-face-masks-can-impact-childrens-ability-to-read-emotions/">determine when someone is happy, sad or angry</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s crucially important to protect children and workers from the spread of the coronavirus. But there are ways to keep everyone safe while also allowing little ones to see adults’ faces.</p>
<p>If possible, care workers and educators spending long hours with infants and young children should consider clear masks or transparent face shields to reduce potential negative impacts on early learning. And, certainly, parents should continue to <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/baby-talk-learning-your-babys-language-communication/id1505875687?i=1000475161449">play</a>, <a href="https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/why_parents_sing_to_babies">sing</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-babys-brain-to-benefit-read-the-right-books-at-the-right-time-83076">read</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191001-the-word-gap-that-affects-how-your-babys-brain-grows">talk</a> face to face with their infants and children.</p>
<p>Luckily, infants and young children often spend just as much time at home, where healthy caregivers don’t need to wear masks. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/children5070098">Developing children are also very resilient</a>, so if transparent masks are not available, it is still important for caretakers to wear masks until public health authorities recommend otherwise.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa S. Scott receives funding from the National Science Foundation and is a current Learning Sciences Exchange (LSX) fellow funded by the Jacobs Foundation, New America, and the International Congress of Infant Studies</span></em></p>With caregivers’ faces covered, infants and young children will miss out on all the visual cues they’d normally get during stages of rapid developmental growth.Lisa S. Scott, Professor in Psychology, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1364822020-04-17T13:25:02Z2020-04-17T13:25:02ZPoliticians and scientists need strong connections during the coronavirus crisis — and beyond<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328493/original/file-20200416-192731-c1nhpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C3836%2C2626&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Chrystia Freeland have relied heavily on the science-based advice of Chief Medical Officer Theresa Tam during the coronavirus pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The reaction of governments to the coronavirus pandemic perfectly illustrates the importance of maintaining strong links between the scientific and political communities.</p>
<p>Federal and provincial political leaders in Canada are working closely with scientific experts to slow the spread of the infection, combat misinformation and respond quickly and effectively.</p>
<p>Sadly, we have also seen in some cases the harm that weakening the role of science in policy-making can cause. </p>
<p>Whether in times of crisis or not, the constructive integration of scientific evidence into political decision-making strengthens policy initiatives, improves the quality of debate and leads to robust, cost-effective and successful outcomes for society.</p>
<p>Despite the importance of science in society — and we mean science in its broadest sense, including the natural, health and social sciences — there is a considerable gap between the scientific and political spheres.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/eclipse-of-reason-why-do-people-disbelieve-scientists-81068">This gap is widening in the current “post-truth” era</a>, where the role of science has become weakened in many public institutions, and is often discredited to the benefit of vested and financed interests. It is also increasingly difficult for policy-makers to navigate the growing quantity and variety of scholarly research and evaluate its validity. </p>
<p>In order to make full use of our knowledge resources, we need researchers from all disciplines to engage with the policy-making process. However, researchers are underrepresented in politics and governance worldwide. Canada is no exception. A recent analysis has revealed that <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2019/11/28/do-we-have-enough-scientists-in-parliament/">scientific disciplines are strongly underrepresented within the current Parliament</a>.</p>
<h2>Why aren’t more scientists in politics?</h2>
<p>Scientists have often been portrayed as looking down from an ivory tower and many researchers still perceive science as outside of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02379-w">or “above” politics and everyday life</a>. However, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fee.2084">a growing number of scientists worldwide recognize the need for public engagement</a> and involvement in the policy-making process to ensure that society can take the maximum benefit from the knowledge that science generates.</p>
<p>Why then do so few scientists run for office or engage with policy-makers? </p>
<p>One key problem is that <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fee.2084">engaging in government policy is not well rewarded by academic institutions</a>. Given heavy demands on researchers’ time, it can be difficult to justify activities that <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/blog/if-you-love-research-academia-may-not-be-you">are not typically recognized as benchmarks of academic achievement by research institutions or funding agencies</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to a lack of professional motivation, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02831-3">few scientists know how to communicate effectively with politicians</a>, provide valuable and timely input to policy questions or <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/want-get-politician-listen-science-here-s-some-advice">connect with government representatives</a>. While Canadian policy-makers rely on parliamentary committees to review and use scientific evidence, academics are largely unaware of the committee process or how to get involved.</p>
<h2>Science meets Parliament</h2>
<p>We were privileged to be among the scientists who participated in Canada’s inaugural <a href="https://academic.oup.com/spp/article/doi/10.1093/scipol/scz062/5710706">Science Meets Parliament</a> in November 2018.</p>
<p>This non-partisan event brought together academics and policy-makers to promote a mutual understanding of their respective roles and to build new relationships between the two communities. Based on <a href="https://scienceandtechnologyaustralia.org.au/what-we-do/science-meets-parliament/">a model founded in Australia</a> more than 20 years ago, the <a href="https://sciencepolicy.ca/en">Canadian Science Policy Centre</a> and Mona Nemer, <a href="https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/063.nsf/eng/h_97646.html">Canada’s Chief Science Advisor</a>, partnered to co-ordinate this two-day program on Parliament Hill.</p>
<p>Science Meets Parliament included workshops where scientists discussed methods for effective communication, the structure of government and legislative processes, national science-related policy issues and methods to assist MPs and senators to advance evidence-informed policy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328468/original/file-20200416-192762-jhalsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Participants in the first meeting of the ‘Science Meets Parliament’ program with Mona Nemer, Canada’s Chief Science Advisor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Canadian Science Policy Centre)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Building on our experience from Science Meets Parliament, we are proposing six recommendations for improving science-policy relationships in Canada. </p>
<h2>1. Integrate public policy communication into academic training</h2>
<p>Effective communications with policy-makers is a key skill that researchers must develop if they are to facilitate the incorporation of science into policy. Yet this element is missing from most graduate programs and faculty training. </p>
<p>We contend that including policy communication skill development into professional training will provide the current and future generations of scientists with the tools necessary to engage with policy-makers. </p>
<h2>2. Develop incentives for policy engagement</h2>
<p>Researchers have identified the lack of professional incentives for policy engagement as an important reason why a gap exists between science and policy.</p>
<p>We recommend that universities and granting agencies view policy input, such as briefing notes or committee testimony, as valid research outputs and service for the purposes of promotion and funding applications. Additionally, to streamline faculty engagement with the policy process, public outreach offices could monitor parliamentary committee agendas and alert researchers to opportunities to contribute their expertise.</p>
<h2>3. Establish and support forums for public engagement training</h2>
<p>We applaud efforts to establish <a href="https://www.mitacs.ca/en/programs/canadian-science-policy-fellowship">Canadian Science Policy Fellowships</a> and <a href="https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/Promoter-Promotion/ScienceComm_eng.asp">funding opportunities for scientists to participate in training activities</a> focusing on public communication skills. </p>
<p>Science Meets Parliament has demonstrated the potential to grow into a major capacity builder in this area. Starting with a <a href="https://sciencepolicy.ca/smp-2020">second edition planned for the fall</a>, we recommend funding this program on an annual basis to continue introducing scientists from diverse disciplines and backgrounds to the policy-making process.</p>
<h2>4. Create a research chair at the Chief Science Advisor’s office</h2>
<p>We propose the creation of visiting research chairs within the office of the Chief Science Advisor. This would allow scientists to learn and develop new strategies for integrating science into politics. This position could take the form of internships lasting from four months to one year for researchers who participated in the Science Meets Parliament program.</p>
<h2>5. Establish science literacy opportunities for Parliamentarians</h2>
<p>Parliamentarians should be offered more opportunities to enhance their science literacy through campus and community visits, targeted training and workshops, <a href="https://royalsociety.org/grants-schemes-awards/pairing-scheme/">or pairing with scientists</a>. These would enhance understanding of the scientific landscape in Canada, including how to access credible information from the scientific community. Access to relevant scientific information could also be facilitated by collaboration between academic researchers and analysts from the <a href="https://hillnotes.ca/">Library of Parliament, which publishes a research document called HillNotes</a>.</p>
<h2>6. Extend Science Meets Parliament to other levels of government</h2>
<p>In Canada, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/intergovernmental-affairs/services/federation/distribution-legislative-powers.html">legislative powers are distributed among the federal and provincial/territorial governments</a>, and in co-ordination with First Nations, Inuit and Métis Nation communities. While the municipalities report directly to the provinces, they often have the most direct relationships to local residents. Strong links between scientists, Indigenous leaders and members of municipal councils and provincial legislative assemblies are therefore equally important as links with federal legislators.</p>
<p>Both scientists and policy-makers considered the inaugural Science Meets Parliament event highly successful. We hope the lessons learned can be applied to strengthen the program in order to foster a robust culture of science in Canadian public life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136482/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominique Robert receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs Program and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam T. Ford receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs Program, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Canada Foundation for Innovation, the Habitat Conservation Trust Foundation, and Environment and Climate Change Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Albrecht Schulte-Hostedde receives funding from the Canada Research Chair program and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda J. Moehring receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs Program, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), and Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela Kaida receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs program, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), Grand Challenges Canada, Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research (MSFHR), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjun Krishnaswamy receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Scottish Rite Charitable Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Canada Research Chairs Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine L. Mah holds funding from the Canada Research Chairs program, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cole Burton receives funding from funding from the Canada Research Chairs Program, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, and British Columbia Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Bertrand holds funding from the Canada Research Chair Program, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the New Frontiers in Research Fund, the Ocean Frontier Institute and the Simons Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heather Sparling holds funding from the Canada Research Chairs program and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She has received funding from several Nova Scotia government grants at various points.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jackie Dawson receives funding from SSHRC, ArcticNet, MEOPAR.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kin Chan receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs program, SSHRC, NSERC, and the Ontario Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary A De Vera receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, The Arthritis Society, the Canadian Initiative for Outcomes in Rheumatology Care, and the Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meghan Azad receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Research Manitoba, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Manitoba Children’s Hospital Foundation, Prolacta Biosciences, Mitacs, and the Garfield G. Weston Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sheldon Williamson receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs (CRC) program, the Natural Sciences and engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada, the Ontario Centers of Excellence (OCE), MITACS, Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI), NSERC Discovery Grants Program , and the NSERC Alliance program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Waterman receives funding from the Canada Research Chair Program, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the New Frontiers in Research Fund, MITACS, Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR), the Canadian Foundation for Innovation ( CFI) and the British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund (BCKDF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trushar R. Patel receives funding from the Canada Research Chair program, Alberta Innovates, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery program and Canada Foundation for Innovation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valorie A. Crooks receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research, and the Canada Research Chairs Secretariat. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jiaying Zhao et Matt McTaggart ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The effective integration of science into policy-making improves legislation and leads to effective solutions for society — and not only during times of crisis like the coronavirus pandemic.Dominique Robert, Professeur et Chaire de recherche du Canada en écologie halieutique, Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)Adam T. Ford, Assistant Professor and Canada Research Chair, University of British ColumbiaAlbrecht Schulte-Hostedde, Professor - Applied Evolutionary Ecology, Laurentian UniversityAmanda J. Moehring, Professor of Genetics, Western UniversityAngela Kaida, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair in Global Perspectives in HIV and Sexual and Reproductive Health, Simon Fraser UniversityArjun Krishnaswamy, Assistant Professor, McGill UniversityCatherine L. Mah, Canada Research Chair in Promoting Healthy Populations, Dalhousie UniversityCole Burton, Canada Research Chair in Terrestrial Mammal Conservation, University of British ColumbiaErin Bertrand, Assistant Professor of Biology, Dalhousie UniversityHeather Sparling, Associate Professor of Ethnomusicology; Canada Research Chair in Musical Traditions, Cape Breton UniversityJackie Dawson, Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, Environment, and Geomatics, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaJiaying Zhao, Associate Professor, Psychology, University of British ColumbiaKin Chan, Assistant Professor in Biochemistry, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaMary A De Vera, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British ColumbiaMatt McTaggart, Assistant professor, Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Royal Military College of CanadaMeghan Azad, Associate Professor of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of ManitobaSheldon Williamson, Professor, Department of Electrical, Computer, and Software Engineering, and Canada Research Chair, Ontario Tech UniversityStephanie Waterman, Assistant Professor, Physical Oceanography, University of British ColumbiaTrushar R. Patel, Assistant professor, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, and Canada Research Chair, University of LethbridgeValorie A. Crooks, Full Professor, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1197302019-07-11T11:02:05Z2019-07-11T11:02:05ZAn invisible government agency produces crucial national security intelligence, but is anyone listening?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283390/original/file-20190709-44497-1bvjq7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Harry S Truman established the initial version of the National Intelligence Council. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-ASSOCIATED-PRESS-Domestic-News-Dist-of-/06594794d10c41edbeae50e387b2d53c/44/0">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year marks the 40th anniversary of a little-known U.S. organization that has provided crucial intelligence and analysis to presidents for all those decades: the <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=398&Itemid=776">National Intelligence Council</a>. </p>
<p>Right after World War II, President Harry Truman understood that the United States was embarking into a new world order and required, in the words of one observer, guidance on <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol53no2/peeling-facts-off-the-face-of-the-unknown.html">“the big job – the carving out of United States destiny in the world as a whole.”</a> </p>
<p>He established a <a href="https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc700905/m1/1/high_res_d/R40505_2009Apr10.pdf">Board of National Estimates</a> deliberately outside the White House, State Department and Pentagon so that strategic intelligence would be provided with a degree of independence and detachment. </p>
<p>As national security scholars and practitioners, we believe it was a wise judgment. In our experience, when intelligence analysts are close to policy operators, the risk grows that assessments will be cut to suit the cloth of policy – a frequent problem with military intelligence. </p>
<p>In the 1970s, the board was transformed into the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1973/09/20/archives/cia-will-abolish-estimates-system-form-a-new-board.html">National Intelligence Council.</a> The board had become too detached and academic, in the view of both the director of central intelligence, James Schlesinger, and the national security advisor, Henry Kissinger. </p>
<p>Schlesinger’s successor, William Colby, replaced the board with national intelligence officers, who later became the National Intelligence Council and took on the role of strategic intelligence analysis, drawing on the work of all the intelligence agencies. </p>
<p>We each served, at different times, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Our recent book, “<a href="https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190940003.001.0001/oso-9780190940003?rskey=WQPI6M&result=1">Truth to Power</a>”, chronicles the history of the council, an organization well known inside government but little understood outside, and its involvement in almost all the major foreign policy challenges of the last decades. </p>
<p>Did the National Intelligence Council always get it right? Of course not. As Yogi Berra put it, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” And while the council, and U.S. intelligence more generally, would like to always “get it right,” the better standard is whether its work was useful in helping policy move in a wise direction. </p>
<p>On that score, it has played a critical role in supporting presidents ever since Truman’s time, often providing an important check on the wilder impulses of policymakers. </p>
<p>In a dangerous but shapeless world, strategic analysis has never been more important. Yet it is apparent that <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-foreign-policy-20190515-story.html">disdain for analysis</a> has also never been greater than under this administration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283392/original/file-20190709-44479-1u20u99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters spell out ‘No War’ after Trump tweeted that ‘Iran made a very big mistake’ by shooting down a U.S. surveillance drone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/US-Iran/32eca568e643458789b19c17b75ef066/23/0">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The National Intelligence Council at work</h2>
<p>The council now is composed of fewer than 100 analysts, national intelligence officers and their deputies, organized like the State Department in geographic and functional accounts, like terrorism or technology. </p>
<p>When we each served as chairman of the council, if the <a href="https://www.dummies.com/education/politics-government/what-is-the-role-of-the-national-security-advisor/">national security advisor</a> or another senior <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/">National Security Council</a> officer wanted to know how “intelligence” assessed a particular issue, the question would go to the council. </p>
<p>The appropriate national intelligence officer would convene his or her colleagues from all the agencies to agree on the answer and produce an assessment. Disagreements would be noted in the assessment, which would first be given to the National Security Council, then often put in a form that, while still classified, could be distributed more widely, including to Congress.</p>
<p>The council is still answering questions, but there is <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/62439/trumps-moves-intelligence-community-crippling-u-s-national-security/">very little process in the Trump administration</a>. The main policy committees, the “principals” (Cabinet officers) and “deputies” (their number twos and threes), hardly meet, and decisions are made by tweet or held tightly by the national security advisor. </p>
<p>The process for the council’s <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/national-intelligence-estimates">National Intelligence Estimates</a> is similar to writing an assessment, but the point of the exercise is to look ahead, to identify connections among issues and their importance. From start to finish, an estimate can take months to complete. Finished estimates are approved by a meeting of the agency heads, the <a href="https://definitions.uslegal.com/n/national-intelligence-board/">National Intelligence Board</a>, whose members are the heads of every U.S. intelligence agency. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283391/original/file-20190709-44479-9c5hty.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2002, a U.N. weapons inspector checks out a weapon in Iraq.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War#/media/File:WeaponsInspector.JPG">Petr Pavlicek/International Atomic Energy Agency</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The need for strategic intelligence</h2>
<p>Perhaps the council’s most studied failure, the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/17/document-of-the-week-the-2002-national-intelligence-estimate-on-wmds-in-iraq/">2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction</a>, is a case in point about the limitations of intelligence in guiding policy. </p>
<p>That estimate was used to justify a war – not yet ended – in which over <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R40824.pdf">4,000 Americans have died</a>, according to official Defense Department statistics, but Iraq did not turn out to have any of the weapons. The estimate cited evidence, but <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20071225161422/http://www.gpoaccess.gov/serialset/creports/iraq.html">it turned out not to be evidence of weapons.</a></p>
<p>Surely, in assessing that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, the council got it wrong. But so did virtually everyone else, including the two of us, who nonetheless opposed the war. </p>
<p>Yet the bigger story of that estimate is that it didn’t make a difference to policy. The <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/196659/no-higher-honor-by-condoleezza-rice/9780307986788/">George W. Bush administration had long before decided on war</a>, according to then-National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/wmd-just-a-convenient-excuse-for-war-admits-wolfowitz-106754.html">and then-Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz</a>. And so the most the estimate did at the time was to perhaps provide some cover for skeptical Democrats in Congress who didn’t want to vote “no” to war. </p>
<p>The council did, however, provide good strategic analysis that – if heeded – could have averted policy fiascoes in the Middle East during this same period.</p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/28/politics/prewar-assessment-on-iraq-saw-chance-of-strong-divisions.html">two of the council’s assessments in January 2003</a> were cautionary about the planned U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq. </p>
<p>The first assessed that the war would produce a spike in anti-American terrorist activity and recruitment, while the second noted that occupation would evoke bad associations with earlier foreign occupations of Baghdad, and so needed to be internationalized as soon as possible, presumably through the U.N. </p>
<p>They went <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/28/politics/prewar-assessment-on-iraq-saw-chance-of-strong-divisions.html">unheeded by the Bush administration</a>. </p>
<p>In 2011, the Obama administration participated in the NATO operation in Libya aimed at preventing a bloodbath in Benghazi, Libya’s second-largest city. The administration did not heed the <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/29/hillary-clinton-libya-war-genocide-narrative-rejec/">warnings from intelligence and military leaders</a> that the operation could grow rapidly into a much greater involvement in that country’s political problems. </p>
<p>The operation quickly and predictably expanded from a limited humanitarian intervention into a much broader campaign to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Libya-Revolt-of-2011">overthrow the regime of Moammar Gadhafi</a>, which led to even more civilian casualties.</p>
<p>President Obama later called this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/12/barack-obama-says-libya-was-worst-mistake-of-his-presidency">his “worst mistake,”</a> acknowledging that he was at fault for “failing to plan for the day after” the intervention. At least he wished he had heeded cautionary assessments. </p>
<p>We have both witnessed how presidents and Cabinet officers often don’t want strategic analysis. They have ascended to senior positions because they have (or want to project) a high degree of self-confidence and self-assurance. They don’t like their pet projects subjected to critical scrutiny. </p>
<p>But under President Trump, this has become a much more acute problem. Intelligence community <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/north-korea-isis-iran-and-election-interference-top-u-s-intelligence-community-concerns">judgments that North Korea would not give up its nuclear weapons</a> and that <a href="https://www.axios.com/intelligence-chiefs-donald-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-0333ce3b-dd4e-4928-8753-447b98cedcc4.html">Iran was in compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal</a> <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdf">were wholly ignored by the Trump administration</a>.</p>
<p>Policymakers understandably want intelligence analysis to support their policies. But whether they know it or not, they also need intelligence as a somewhat detached check on their ambitions.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory F. Treverton received funding for the book on which this article is based from the University of Texas and the Smith Richardson Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hutchings received funding for the book on which this article is based from the Smith Richardson Foundation.</span></em></p>The National Intelligence Council works inside government but is little understood outside. Yet it has helped respond to almost all the major foreign policy challenges of the last 40 years.Gregory F. Treverton, Professor of Practice in International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesRobert Hutchings, Walt and Elspeth Rostow Chair in National Security and Professor of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1153952019-04-22T08:42:16Z2019-04-22T08:42:16ZWhat young Zambians have to say about making farming more attractive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269588/original/file-20190416-147499-q95twj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people view agriculture more positively than often assumed. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Africa has the youngest population of any continent – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2019/01/18/charts-of-the-week-africas-changing-demographics/">60% are under age 25</a>. While this has evoked both hope and fear, it is clear that jobs are needed for the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-agriculture-tech/africa-bets-on-technology-to-lure-youth-to-farming-idUSKCN1MD1Y6">12 million people</a> entering the workforce every year. </p>
<p>Agriculture is <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/jobs/energy/africa-more-not-fewer-people-will-work-agriculture">best suited to provide a great many jobs</a> as it can <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/as290e/as290e.pdf">absorb</a> much labour, and because prospering farms trigger employment opportunities in the rest of the economy. But agriculture is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14001727">often unattractive for the youth</a>. </p>
<p>To lure young people into farming, policymakers and development actors emphasise the need for modern technology, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-agriculture-tech/africa-bets-on-technology-to-lure-youth-to-farming-idUSKCN1MD1Y6">agricultural mechanisation</a>. But surprisingly little is known about the opinion of young people in rural areas. Few have asked them what farming and rural areas need to look like to be more attractive.</p>
<p>I conducted a <a href="https://research4agrinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ZEF_WP_171.pdf">study in Zambia</a> and asked people in rural areas aged between 12 and 20 what would make farming attractive for them. I used two research methods to explore their aspirations and perceptions: interviews as well as drawing exercises.</p>
<p>The results show that young people find more positive aspects in agriculture than often assumed and that the attractiveness of farming doesn’t only hinge on modern technologies. While some technologies are needed, having diverse and sustainable farms, a healthy environment and an attractive rural life is equally important. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269616/original/file-20190416-147518-1x9t9kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ideal farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The findings</h2>
<p>Most of the people interviewed for the study were proud of the fact that they came from farming families that owned land and worked close to the nature. Ruth (15) expanded on this and said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We do not pay for maize, land, water and fruits such as mangoes. We have nutritious food. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The respondents also commented on the attractiveness of the rural space. Asked where they want to live in the future, rural or urban, 53% preferred rural areas, because of their freedom and social networks. </p>
<p>In contrast, urban life was often perceived as bad, characterised by road accidents, pollution, Satanism, thieves and drunkards. According to Talunsa (15) people are “poisoned by alcohol and fight”. </p>
<p>Many also found farming unattractive, citing drudgery and weather dependence as reasons. They said they would rather aim for jobs with a regular salary such as teachers. Lozi (16) said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I want to work with the government. Then I’ll get paid monthly. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Around half of the respondents preferred a future in urban areas rather than in rural areas. These respondents were “pulled” away from rural areas because they were attracted by the perceived positive sides of urban areas. But they were also “pushed” away from rural areas which they associate with a lot of challenges. These included the high labour burden and risks associated with farming. This is what some of the respondents said about these “push” factors:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the village, we always eat the same, beans and nshima, and we need to work hard.“ (Elina, 16)</p>
<p>In the village, you can be bewitched over small disputes and the fields are very small. I prefer to live in town.” (Jakob, 15).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It’s important to note that the decision to reside either in a rural or urban area was rarely perceived as a lifetime decision. Respondents highlighted that one could work in town after harvest or for some years after school to save some money before returning to the village. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Some of my friends want to go to town but others want to stay. Of the ones who went, many came back after some years. (Alik, 14)</p>
<p>I want to raise some money in town but then I want to move back to my village. I will bring a tractor with me and cultivate a lot of land. (Raimond, 17)</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Making farming attractive</h2>
<p>So what does farming need to look like to be attractive? </p>
<p>The young people provided some direction on what they thought would make rural spaces more attractive. </p>
<p>The most important factors were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Modern technologies such as tractors and digital tools. But these shouldn’t be over emphasised. Low-tech solutions shouldn’t be neglected.</p></li>
<li><p>Non-material factors. Making agriculture attractive requires de-risking agriculture and promoting sustainable and diverse farms. These were clearly depicted in the drawings I’d asked the respondents to sketch of their ideal farm. The drawings typically showed highly diverse farms with trees, vegetables, fruits and animals. </p></li>
<li><p>Ensure healthy landscapes. Having a sustainable, pollution free environment was commonly mentioned as a key advantage of rural over urban life.</p></li>
<li><p>Rural areas must be <a href="http://gfpr.ifpri.info/?fbclid=IwAR3ZsgTg96WShUjLDf5mrTeP6F42-CTlDQdnQMSfaGoaeDLyYpTIIOL90QA">developed</a> in ways that go beyond just infrastructure. Social life and networks, which are still an asset in villages compared to cities, were also cited as important. This included networks of neighbours, relatives and friend and the communal celebration of traditions. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What next</h2>
<p>Policymakers often highlight the need for modern technologies – including information, communication and technology – when discussing rural development. </p>
<p>But the young respondents I spoke to emphasised more low-tech solutions such as increasing farm diversity, having water wells and using draught animals, which is already an advantage over manual labour.</p>
<p>This suggests that policymakers and development practitioners need to pay more attention to the actual aspirations of young people in rural areas to avoid well-intended but misguided policies. In addition, the findings suggest that there is a need for several policies to reflect several types of young people in rural areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Daum receives funding from the “Program of Accompanying Research for Agricultural Innovation” (PARI), which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). </span></em></p>Agriculture is well placed to provide employment for millions across the African continent.Thomas Daum, Agricultural Economist, University of HohenheimLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/974902018-06-11T17:08:45Z2018-06-11T17:08:45ZAfrica takes steps to earn its stripes in using evidence to inform policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221951/original/file-20180606-137306-y5wff3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">By focusing on evidence to inform policy, Africa can tackle some major problems.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rigorous, reliable evidence should be used when making decisions for any society. That’s because the use of evidence helps decision makers to maximise limited resources such as money and expertise. It’s also a way to avoid harm and to select the courses of action that have been shown to be beneficial.</p>
<p>The importance of basing decisions on the best available evidence is even more important in settings like Africa. The continent has enormous challenges to overcome. These include a lack of resources; poverty; and corruption.</p>
<p>Africa, like many developing countries, has a real challenge when it comes to using academic research and evidence to decide on and design policies. The problem is twofold. Policymakers sometimes don’t call on available research, while for their part academics don’t know how to engage with policymakers.</p>
<p>But academics would be naive to believe that only research evidence is important, or that they’re the only ones working to tackle Africa’s massive challenges. Rather, my colleagues and I should recognise our position within a wider community working towards <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19439342.2018.1425734?scroll=top&needAccess=true">real change</a>. This community is made up of people, the organisations they work for and their wider networks.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://africaevidencenetwork.org">Africa Evidence Network</a> is one of many on the continent working to break down the walls that stop decision makers and researchers from working closely together. </p>
<p>We set up the <a href="http://www.africaevidencenetwork.org/africa-evidence-leadership-award/">Africa Evidence Leadership Award</a> as part of this effort. It is aimed at people from Africa who work to support evidence-informed decision making. The way in which evidence-informed decision making has been defined has deliberately been left broad. This means that people from all sectors of the evidence ecosystem – not only academics – can apply. </p>
<p>It’s a chance to benchmark the highest standards of evidence-informed decision-making and to recognise people using evidence to make decisions and engaging with researchers to support evidence-informed decisions. Our hope is that a new generation of evidence champions will want to engage with evidence-informed decision-making if it’s seen to be prestigious. </p>
<h2>Work across the continent</h2>
<p>The winner of the inaugural Africa Evidence Leadership Award, Velia Manyonga, is an excellent example of an evidence champion. Manyonga is the head of the research division at the Parliament of Malawi. Her work involves generating evidence for Malawian MPs to use in parliamentary committee meetings and during house debates.</p>
<p>She also analyses the credibility of evidence sources and has developed guidelines for evidence use. These show how MPs and staff can access and use parliament’s research services. All this work crosses sectors and supports decision makers in a very direct way to engage with evidence. </p>
<p>Manyonga is part of a wide network of decision makers and researchers across the continent who are using evidence as a tool to change the world. </p>
<p>There are several examples of projects that have been launched on the back of co-operation between academics and policy makers. One of these is a rapid response service <a href="https://health-policy-systems.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12961-017-0200-1">being carried out in Uganda</a>. There, evidence summaries were developed and tweaked according to Ugandan decision-makers’ specific needs.</p>
<p>Another project is the co-production of evidence syntheses <a href="http://www.dpme.gov.za/news/Pages/DPME-to-launch-Evidence-Mapping-tool.aspx">happening in South Africa</a>. Researchers from the Africa Centre for Evidence support the research division within the government’s Department for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation by developing evidence maps that different departments can draw on when making decisions.</p>
<p>This sort of work is happening elsewhere in Africa, too, as evidenced by the submissions we received for the Africa Evidence Leadership Award from countries like Ghana, Cameroon and Kenya.</p>
<h2>Setting high standards</h2>
<p>The award is a useful benchmarking exercise. By highlighting extraordinary examples of evidence-informed decision making, people doing this kind of work can push their standards ever higher. That’s a good thing for policy makers – and ultimately citizens – who benefit from these sorts of decisions.</p>
<p>The award will also help Africa develop a reputation for evidence-informed decision making and show its commitment to the process. The hope is that individuals will be lauded for their work on the continent, offered greater funding support and get opportunities for travel and learning.</p>
<p>We hope to present this award annually in future, although that will depend on several factors, including the availability of funding. Meanwhile, the hard work of putting evidence at the centre of decisions and policies across Africa continues – led by evidence champions around the continent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Stewart is the director of the Africa Centre for Evidence at the University of Johannesburg, and the current chairperson of the Africa Evidence Network. The Africa Centre for Evidence is externally funded and has in the past received research funding from the South African national government.</span></em></p>Africa has a real challenge when it comes to using academic research and evidence to design policies.Ruth Stewart, Associate Professor: Evidence-Informed Decision-Making, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/943522018-04-05T13:05:29Z2018-04-05T13:05:29ZRamaphosa’s to do list: seven economic policy areas that will shift the dial<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213394/original/file-20180405-189816-1rxfzr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa faces many economic challenges.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s new President, Cyril Ramaphosa, seems to have a lot going for him. His early new broom sweeps clean gestures have been incisive and the market indicators are responding well. A plethora of good news has come his way in the weeks since he was sworn in. </p>
<p>The rand has remained strong, and with it the steadying of the inflation rate – at 4% the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.co.za/inflation-slowed-down-to-a-mere-41-for-february-as-the-sa-economy-claws-out-of-political-paralysis-2018-3">lowest it’s been in three years</a>. This in turn allowed the South African Reserve Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Few things benefit a feel good effect better than downward movement in interest rates.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/sas-business-confidence-retreats-from-2-12-year-high-13638534">business confidence</a> is looking up. This could mean that companies use their high cash balances to invest.</p>
<p>Most critically, global credit rating agency <a href="https://www.thesouthafrican.com/moodys-credit-sa-avoids-junk-status/">Moody’s</a> maintained South Africa’s investment grade rating and upgraded the outlook of the country’s sovereign debt to stable. And while one of the other top three rating agencies, S&P, didn’t upgrade its sub-investment grading, it doubled its growth <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/insights/sa-downgrade/2018/03/27/sp-raises-growth-outlook-south-africa/">forecast</a> for 2018 from 1% to 2%.</p>
<p>Also auspicious is the trajectory of the global economy, if <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/trumps-trade-war-could-hit-rand-through-oil-price-20180405">Trump’s trade war </a> can be contained. The <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/brief/global-economic-prospects-sub-saharan-africa-2018">prospect</a> of continued economic growth across Africa and the huge improvement in the southern African environment with new leaders in Zimbabwe, Angola, Mozambique and South Africa, are also positive.</p>
<p>But Ramaphosa will have to do much more to rekindle growth, address deep inequalities and tackle corruption in the private and public sectors. Above all he must address policy uncertainty. This is affecting a range of key sectors from energy to telecoms, water mining and land.</p>
<p>The Ramaphosa government can’t do everything at once. There are seven key areas that South African’s new president should focus on to make some headway.</p>
<h2>The to do list</h2>
<p><strong>Fiscal stability:</strong></p>
<p>One critical challenge is maintaining macroeconomic stability – that means keeping the budget deficit within reasonable bounds and yet supporting economic expansion. So, he needs to be sure that any increases in government expenditure support growth and development.</p>
<p>But this won’t be easy given that the government has landed itself with a massive <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/sas-whale-sized-public-sector-wage-bill-approaches-a-cliff/">public sector wage bill</a>. Costs have gone up dramatically as a result of higher wage settlements as well as employment going up from 2.5 million go 3.2 million under Jacob Zuma.</p>
<p>It will be hard for Ramaphosa to bring this back under control given that he also needs to win over the labour movement in his mission to build a new social contract between government, labour and business.</p>
<p>At the same time, government has to attract capable professionals to deliver on its promises to replace talent lost during the frustrating Zuma years. Ramaphosa and his team will need to work hard to make public service an admired career proposition.</p>
<p><strong>Re-industrialisation:</strong></p>
<p>Ramaphosa has promised to getting industry going in South Africa again. This requires three key conditions: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>A relatively competitive currency (the rand should not get so strong that imports are favoured against domestic products). </p></li>
<li><p>interest rates must be low enough to encourage investment, especially by small firms.</p></li>
<li><p>Real wage rates must be linked to productivity increases – if wage increases run ahead of productivity growth, domestic producers will lose out to international competition.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Ramaphosa might run into some difficulty here too given that he’s promised to forge a “social pact” with labour and industry. Striking deals between competing interests might get in the way of delivering these three key drivers.</p>
<p>But if he does, South Africa would have taken a real step towards a democratic developmental state, as <a href="http://www.jforcs.com/research-development-emerging-countries-case-study-mauritius-singapore/">Mauritius</a> did in the early 1970s and <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/03068290610689714">Ireland</a> in the late 1980s. Both countries made social pacts in which government supported investment, business committed to investment, and labour agreed to limit wage demands to increases no greater than productivity increases. The result was sustained growth over several decades.</p>
<p><strong>State owned enterprises:</strong>
Ramaphosa has already made some bold moves by firing executives from key entities such as the state power utility Eskom and South African Airways. But tougher decisions will have to be taken. Operations will have to be rationalised and policies overhauled in key sectors such as energy, information and communication technologies, water and transport.</p>
<p><strong>Urban land:</strong>
Reallocating land in urban areas could reduce inequality and erode the spatial legacy of apartheid. Poor workers and their families continue to live great distances from places of work. Better located, safe and secure homes for workers and their families, and better public transport will improve livelihoods and lower employment costs. Access to suitable and secure urban homes would be a massive step forward for many, and a huge contribution to the reduction of inequality. </p>
<p><strong>Small business:</strong>
Government needs to act in a far more consistent, committed and coordinated way to support the small business sector. Currently responsibilities are split over several ministries. It also needs to ensure that the dead hand
of state monopolies and private oligopolies are lifted. Underpinning this should be a stronger commitment to supporting investment in new research and development.</p>
<p><strong>Skills:</strong>
Education – and skills – should be a central focus. </p>
<p>The greatest intervention to support skills development and reduce inequality in the longer term would be to take early childhood development funding seriously.</p>
<p>Secondly, the general quality of basic education is failing the country. This needs to be addressed. And the World Economic Forum has <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/technology/171141-south-africa-finishes-last-in-wefs-2016-mathematics-and-science-education-ranking.html">downgraded</a> South Africa’s competitiveness ranking for the relatively low number of university graduates it produces. This needs to be reversed. </p>
<p>The commitment to free higher education for capable students from poor backgrounds is a bold step forward, but the universities need more and smarter investment in their capacity. </p>
<p>The skills training environment remains deficient, and needs a better relationship between the demand and supply (employers and training institutions) to get it to work efficiently. And a wiser policy on the skilled immigrants would help a great deal in the interim. </p>
<p><strong>Policy certainty:</strong>
More certainty is needed about policies on mining, land and black economic empowerment to encourage new investment. </p>
<h2>Tough road</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa has started brilliantly, in spite of the terrible state of the African National Congress (ANC) and the weakness of too many government institutions. Getting to serious, inclusive growth is going to demand a great deal of work by skilled policy makers working within effective social partnership agreements. </p>
<p>In view of the limited resources available to the government and considering the fragility of the ANC, he will need to prioritise and move systematically through the issues, all the while ensuring that his government maintains sufficient support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Hirsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africa’s President, Cyril Ramaphosa, needs to quickly address key challenges to restart the economy.Alan Hirsch, Professor and Director of the Graduate School of Development Policy, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/892402017-12-18T19:14:31Z2017-12-18T19:14:31ZClimate scientists and policymakers need to trust each other (but not too much)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199669/original/file-20171218-27591-1bh5wna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trust is everything.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">oneinchpunch/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At a time when the effects of climate change are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24672">accelerating</a> and published science overwhelmingly supports the view that humans are responsible for the rate of change, powerful groups remain in denial across politics, the media, and industry. Now more than ever, we need scientists and policymakers to work together to create and implement effective policy which is informed by the most recent and reliable evidence.</p>
<p>We know that trust between scientists and policymakers is important in developing policy that is informed by scientific evidence. But how do you build this trust, and how do you make sure that it genuinely leads to positive outcomes for society?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nature-v-technology-climate-belief-is-politics-not-science-12611">Nature v technology: climate 'belief' is politics, not science</a>
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<p>In response to these questions, our recent Perspective in <a href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0010-z">Nature Climate Change</a> explores the dynamics of trust at the interface of climate science and policy. </p>
<p>We suggest that while trust is an important component of the science-policy dynamic, there can be such a thing as “too much” trust between scientists and policymakers. </p>
<p>Understanding this dynamic is crucial if we are to deliver positive outcomes for science, policy, and the society that depends on their cooperation.</p>
<h2>What happens when there is ‘too much’ trust?</h2>
<p>Trust between climate scientists (researchers in a range of disciplines, institutions, and organisational settings) and policymakers (civil servants in government departments or agencies who shape climate policy) is useful because it enhances the flow of information between them. In a trusting relationship, we can expect to see a scientist explaining a new finding directly to a policymaker, or a policymaker describing future information needs to a scientist. </p>
<p>Together, this arrangement ideally gives us science-led policy, and policy-relevant science.</p>
<p>But as <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840615585337">scholars of trust have warned</a>, there is a point beyond which these positive benefits of trust can turn sour. </p>
<p>Think about a hypothetical situation in which a scientist and policy-maker come to trust each other deeply. What happens if one of them starts to become loose with the facts, or fails to adhere to professional standards? Is their trusting counterpart more, or less, likely to identify the poor behaviour and respond appropriately?</p>
<p>Over time, a trusting relationship may evolve into a self-perpetuating belief of trustworthiness based on the history of the relationship. This is where scientists and policymakers may find themselves in a situation of “too much” trust. </p>
<p>We know that science advances by consensus, and that this consensus is shaped by rigorous research and review, and intense debate and scrutiny. But what if (as in the hypothetical example described above) a policy-maker’s trust in an individual scientist means they bypass the consensus and instead depend on that one scientist for new information? What happens if that scientist is – intentionally or unintentionally – wrong?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199635/original/file-20171218-17869-1r8dla.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More trust is not always best. ‘Too much’ trust can cause perverse outcomes at the science-policy interface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840615585337">Adapted from Stevens et al. (2015)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When you have “too much” trust, the benefits of trust can instead manifest as perverse outcomes, such as “blind faith” commitments between parties. In a situation like this, a policymaker may trust an individual scientist so much that they do not look for signs of misconduct, such as the misrepresentation of findings.</p>
<p>Favouritism and “capture” may mean that some policymakers provide information about future research support only to selected scientists, denying these opportunities to others. At the same time, scientists may promote <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015000485">only their own stream of research instead of outlining the range of perspectives in the field</a> to the policymakers, narrowing the scope of what science enters the policy area. </p>
<p>“Cognitive lock-in” might result, where a policymaker sticks to a failing policy because they feel committed to the scientist who first recommended the course of action. For example, state-of-the-art climate forecasting tools are available in the Pacific but are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718517301860">reportedly underused</a>. This is partly because the legacy of trusting relationships between scientists and policymakers in the region has led them to continue relying on less sophisticated tools.</p>
<p>“Too much” trust can also lead to overly burdensome obligations between scientists and policymakers. A scientist may come to hold unrealistically high expectations of the level of information a policymaker can share, or a policymaker may desire the production of research by an unfeasible deadline.</p>
<h2>What’s the right way to trust?</h2>
<p>With this awareness of the potentially negative outcomes of “too much” trust, should we abandon trust at the climate science-policy interface all together? </p>
<p>No. But we can – and should – develop, monitor, and manage trust with acknowledgement of how “too much” trust may lead to perverse outcomes for both scientists and policy-makers. </p>
<p>We should aim for a state of “<a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840615585337">optimal trust</a>”, which enjoys the benefits of a trusting relationship while avoiding the pitfalls of taking too trusting an approach.</p>
<p>We propose five key strategies for managing trust at the climate science-policy interface.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Be explicit about expectations for trust in a climate science-policy relationship. Climate scientists and policy-makers should clarify protocols and expectations about behaviour through open discussion as early as possible within the relationship.</p></li>
<li><p>Transparency and accountability, especially when things go wrong, are critical to achieving and maintaining a state of optimal trust. When things do go wrong, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27759989">trust repair</a> can right the relationship.</p></li>
<li><p>Implement systems for monitoring trust, such as discussion groups within scientific and policy organisations and processes of peer review. Such approaches can help to identify the effects of “too much” trust – such as capture, cognitive lock-in, or unrealistically high expectations.</p></li>
<li><p>Manage staff churn in policy and scientific organisations. When scientists or policy-makers change role or institution, handing over the trusting relationships can help positive legacies and practices to carry on.</p></li>
<li><p>Use intermediaries such as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eet.1752/abstract">knowledge brokers</a> to facilitate the flow of information between science and policy. Such specialists can promote fairness and honesty at the science-policy interface, increasing the probability of maintaining ‘optimal trust’.</p></li>
</ul>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-moment-that-climate-politics-and-public-opinion-finally-match-up-50062">Is this the moment that climate politics and public opinion finally match up?</a>
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<p>Embracing strategies such as these would be a positive step toward managing trust between scientists and policymakers, both in climate policy and beyond.</p>
<p>In this time of contested science and highly politicised policy agendas, all of us in science and policy have a responsibility to ensure we <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015000485">act ethically</a> and appropriately to achieve positive outcomes for society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicians are always being told to trust what climate scientists are telling them. But can you have too much of a good thing? What happens when the exchange of ideas becomes too cosy?Rebecca Colvin, Knowledge Exchange Specialist, Australian National UniversityChristopher Cvitanovic, Research Fellow, University of TasmaniaJustine Lacey, Senior Social Scientist, CSIROMark Howden, Director, Climate Change Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/785392017-06-01T14:02:44Z2017-06-01T14:02:44ZSocial policies work best if they’re bespoke solutions to local problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171615/original/file-20170531-25664-1mhx9hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cycle lanes work in Florence, Italy. That doesn't mean they'll work everywhere.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Max Rossi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>My morning commute to work in Johannesburg takes me past city streets flanked by the strange strips of green-painted road surface that some people call “bicycle lanes”. But to call them that flies in the face of experience.</p>
<p>Usually these lanes are occupied by cars using them as makeshift parking bays; taxis veering to a halt to drop off or pick up passengers – and very occasionally by a brave pedestrian. The one thing I’m pretty confident of never seeing in these lanes is a bicycle.</p>
<p>This isn’t a rant about roads, though. It’s an example that calls attention to an inconvenient fact for policymakers who must make decisions about how to improve societies. Successful policy interventions, especially those in the social realm influenced by the vagaries of human behaviour, don’t seem to travel well. </p>
<p>To paraphrase philosopher Nancy Cartwright’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Policy-Practical-Guide-Better/dp/0199841624">warning</a>: “Just because it worked there, doesn’t mean it will work here”. Policies and interventions that work really well in one context often fail dismally in others. These failures can be extremely difficult to pre-empt.</p>
<p>Johannesburg’s cycling lane <a href="https://theconversation.com/johannesburgs-bike-lanes-are-not-well-used-heres-why-75068">debacle</a> nicely illustrates a research problem known as <a href="https://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/external.php">external validity</a>. This is basically about determining whether causal relationships transport to different environments or can be generalised across many environments. Simply put, the puzzle is why cycling lanes cause a reduction in traffic in some cities but not in others. </p>
<h2>Different contexts, different solutions</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/johannesburgs-bike-lanes-are-not-well-used-heres-why-75068">failure</a> of Johannesburg’s cycle lanes has very little to do with the way they were implemented. The real problem is that policymakers should have foreseen that cycle lanes were never the right intervention in the first place, if the aim was to find an effective way of alleviating the city’s traffic problem. </p>
<p>It’s easy to be smug with the benefit of hindsight. But if we consider things from the perspective of those who had to make the decision, opting for the cycle lanes isn’t as risible as it seems now. Their thinking must have gone as follows: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We have a serious traffic problem. What have other big cities done to improve congestion? Answer: bicycle lanes. Solution: build bicycle lanes.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The mistake, I believe, was trying to import a successful mechanism – in this case in the form of infrastructure – from a different context, and expecting it to have the same effect in the local environment. Demonstrating the effectiveness of these mechanisms is one thing. It’s inferring from this effectiveness that the same mechanism will be effective in other contexts that can easily lead people astray.</p>
<p>Modern science is becoming increasingly adept at developing sophisticated methods for discovering mechanisms that underpin causal relationships. </p>
<p>This approach has worked well in the health sciences. It continues to yield important <a href="http://www.aicr.org/continuous-update-project/reports/breast-cancer-report-2017.pdf">new breakthroughs</a> in our knowledge about lifestyle factors in cancers. Attempts to identify similar mechanisms in the social sciences often result in failure. Nancy Cartwright’s discussion of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Policy-Practical-Guide-Better/dp/0199841624">the failure</a> of the World Health Organisation’s nutrition programme in Bangladesh is a good example. Its success in India was falsely thought to be a good reason to implement it elsewhere.</p>
<p>Thinking this way would have encouraged the false opinion that as long as Johannesburg copied the correct mechanism, its traffic problem would be solved.</p>
<p>A more illuminating approach to dealing with external validity problems is to start with an analysis of the “human ecosystem” that brings about the conditions responsible for the problem. In the same way that we pay attention to the conditions that support life in natural ecosystems, this view encourages us to identify similar conditions for human populations</p>
<h2>Human ecosystems thinking</h2>
<p>In diagnosing Johannesburg’s traffic congestion, attention should have been paid to some fundamental questions about the broader socio-economic factors influencing the city’s transportation network. This should have included a thorough analysis of where people live and work, how far they have to travel and why they choose their preferred methods of transport.</p>
<p>One factor that such thinking would have unearthed is the <a href="http://www.patrickheller.com/uploads/1/5/3/7/15377686/ijur_cartography.pdf">spatial separations</a> brought about by apartheid. Townships, where a significant proportion of the city’s workforce live, are situated on the outskirts of the metropolis. That’s far away from the city’s economically active areas where the bulk of the jobs are. </p>
<p>So, the people most adversely affected by Johannesburg’s traffic problem live too far from their workplaces to even consider cycling as a feasible solution. Those who can afford to live closer to their jobs are typically not tempted by the little money they would save. </p>
<p>This is why the city’s cycling experiment fell short of the critical mass needed to make it work.</p>
<p>A big advantage of this type of ecosystems thinking is that, instead of misguided attempts at importing foreign solutions, it encourages us to attend to local problems by paying closer attention to the local context. Policymakers are pushed to develop solutions inspired by local knowledge and sensibilities.</p>
<p>A more locally-driven approach would instead emphasise practical ways of linking township residents with more economically active areas. This might be done by expanding existing infrastructure which already does this, such as the <a href="https://www.reavaya.org.za/">Rea Vaya</a> bus routes. Or some jobs might be moved to townships.</p>
<p>Some of the solutions inspired by an ecosystems approach might seem unconventional at first – because they would be unprecedented. But this was the way people felt about innovations like <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/05/economist-explains-18">Kenya’s M-Pesa</a> mobile money system. If we want bespoke solutions to unique local problems, we shouldn’t expect to find them elsewhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chad Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Successful policy interventions, especially those in the social realm influenced by the vagaries of human behaviour, don’t seem to travel well.Chad Harris, African Centre for Epistemology and Philosophy of Science (ACEPS), Philosophy Department, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/527662016-01-21T04:57:31Z2016-01-21T04:57:31ZWhy the voice of Africa’s informal economy should be heard<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108540/original/image-20160119-29772-ak2cdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The informal economy represents about 72% of total employment in sub-Saharan Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The informal economy in Africa is big business. The <a href="http://www.iza.org/conference_files/worldb2006/verick_s872.pdf">International Labour Organisation</a> (ILO) estimates that its average size as a percentage of gross domestic product in sub-Saharan Africa is 41%. This ranges from under 30% in South Africa to 60% in Nigeria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>It is also a huge employer. It represents about three-quarters of non-agricultural employment, and about 72% of total employment in sub-Saharan Africa. About 93% of new jobs created in Africa during that 1990s were in the informal economy. </p>
<p>The International Labour Office defines the informal economy as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All economic activities by workers or economic units that are – in law or practice – not covered or sufficiently covered by formal arrangements. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Today the informal economy appears to be as important as ever to Africa and its future development. But governments, and international organisations like the <a href="https://www.wbginvestmentclimate.org/uploads/FIAS+Enterprise+Formalization+in+Africa.pdf">World Bank</a> and <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_policy/documents/publication/wcms_127814.pdf">ILO</a>, do not like the informal economy. As a result international policy has veered from supportive to antagonistic.</p>
<p>At times opposition to the informal economy has been violent. One example is the notorious Operation Murambatsvina (<a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2005/07/zimb-j16.html">“get rid of trash”</a>) in Zimbabwe in 2005. At best it is directed at pulling the informal economy into the formal economy.</p>
<p>Antagonism is driven by a range of reasons. Informal firms do not pay tax. In addition, reports abound of child labour, low wages (especially for women) and low job security as well as high incidence of HIV.</p>
<p>Yet, as the <a href="http://www.rrojasdatabank.info/sida.pdf">Swedish International Development Co-operation</a> points out, many governments are unaware of the contribution of the informal economy, particularly the high involvement of women. </p>
<p>The report also suggests that it is expanding and is here to stay. And a World Bank <a href="http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/251006/day3SkillsfortheInformalApril1Se2.pdf">report</a> points to a trend of people with higher levels of education entering the informal sector as a career of choice. </p>
<h2>A glimpse of the future</h2>
<p>Political economist <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1769332.African_Renaissance">Fantu Cheru</a> asserts that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… a closer look at the informal sector in Africa provides a glimpse of what could be achieved if Africa’s economies and financial policies were more attuned to the continent’s everyday realities. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He sees the informal economy as being community-based, representing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… socio-political entities, with their own rules, forms of organisation and internal hierarchies, constituting a node of resistance and defiance against state domination. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The point is that practices more closely allied with collectivist communities may be far more appropriate than “modern” management methods. These methods are based on Western principles and neoliberal economic policies. They have largely been <a href="http://terencejackson.net/2014/09/26/management-scholarship-on-for-and-from-africa/">discredited</a> as inappropriate to African communities.</p>
<p>But the informal economy is largely marginalised. It has a weak voice and is rarely listened to by policymakers in government or in international organisations. When policies are made they affect a large percentage of firms, entrepreneurs, employees and communities. But it is unlikely any have been consulted. </p>
<p>Issues that could be given more prominence in policymaking are access to capital and the provision of relevant training. More important is what the formal economy can learn from the informal economy as a model for economic development.</p>
<h2>Indigenous practices in a globalised world</h2>
<p>If communities that rely on economic activity in the informal sector are indeed the repositories for indigenous management, entrepreneurial and employment practices it is little wonder they are not listened to. </p>
<p>Indigenous refers to practices, knowledge and values that are related to, and grow out of, local and community circumstances. These often stand in contrast to international or global practices, knowledge and values produced by universities and international corporations.</p>
<p>The dominant discourse is that indigenous practices are outmoded, archaic and out of tune with modernity. Yet seeing indigenous practices and those in the informal economy as frozen in time is a mistake. Even the glib packaging in management consultancy circles of concepts like “<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11708898-ubuntu-the-spirit-of-african-transformation-management">ubuntu</a>” presents a glorified perception of indigenous knowledge being static and timeless.</p>
<p>As Cheru has pointed out, the informal sector may represent a resistance, an alternative to the prevailing globalised view. </p>
<p>Even so, it exists in the globalised world. While constantly adapting, sometimes resisting, it is never apart from globalisation. Rather than eschewing modern technology, communications, the internet and social media, Africa has been <a href="http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats1.htm">embracing it</a>. This is happening through:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>better cellular telecommunications;</p></li>
<li><p>access to cheap smartphones; and</p></li>
<li><p>initiatives, not without controversy, such as Facebook’s internet.org, providing free and wider internet access.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Hence, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/business/news/connecting-100-million-people-in-africa">Facebook</a> told us in June 2014 that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… there are 100 million people coming to Facebook every month across the African continent, with over 80% on mobile. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This includes a majority of people living in the informal economy.</p>
<p>These developments are providing new tools to trade, to market products and to work. They may even be changing the nature of employment. With practices and organisations still rooted in local contexts and communities, identities are changing. </p>
<p>In addition, social media has the potential to change things by providing greater voice and potentially better representation. </p>
<p>Political leaders may have to start listening to entrepreneurs, managers and staff working in the informal economy to formulate more inclusive policies that may prove more relevant to Africa’s development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terence Jackson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The informal economy in sub-Saharan Africa is largely marginalised despite its significant contribution to employment and GDP.Terence Jackson, Professor of Cross-cultural Management, Middlesex UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.