tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/political-parties-590/articlespolitical parties – The Conversation2024-01-30T13:34:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218282024-01-30T13:34:19Z2024-01-30T13:34:19ZWhy Trump’s control of the Republican Party is bad for democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571680/original/file-20240126-27-aaehyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4707%2C3136&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican elites have embraced Trump as their leader.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Republican-Future/6116e03690dd4b53a93d6e2b3dfc7239/photo">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As former President Donald <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-iowa-caucus-haley-desantis-cold-voting-begins-0af10f1ba21d488af54776b2c8d4028c">Trump edges closer to clinching</a> the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, our political science research has shown that a second Trump presidency is likely to damage American democracy even more than <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/understanding-democratic-decline-in-the-united-states/">his first term did</a>. The reason has less to do with Trump and his ambitions than with how power dynamics have shifted within the Republican Party.</p>
<p>In our forthcoming book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-origins-of-elected-strongmen-9780198888079?cc=us&lang=en&">The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within</a>,” we explain the dangers that arise when leaders come to power backed by political parties that exist primarily to promote the leader’s personal agenda, as opposed to advancing particular policies.</p>
<p>In general, typical political parties select new leaders at regular intervals, which gives elites in the party another chance to win a nomination in the future if the party is popular. And typical parties tend to select leaders who rise up the ranks of the party, having worked with other party elites along the way.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.2019711">But so-called personalist parties</a>, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OKFiAbcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">political</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DV5ECYgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">scientists</a> <a href="https://jackson.yale.edu/person/andrea-kendall-taylor/">like us</a> call them, are a threat to democracy because they lack the incentives and ability to resist their leader’s efforts to amass more power.</p>
<p>From 1990 to 2020, in countries all over the world, elected leaders backed by personalist parties have gone on to undermine democracy from within. There are three reasons personalist parties are harmful to democracy, all of which have clear parallels to experiences with Trump and the Republican Party.</p>
<h2>1. Loyalty to the person, not the party</h2>
<p>Personalist party elites are loyal to the leader. A classic indicator of party personalization is the ouster of politically experienced people in the party elite, who are often highly qualified and more independent of the leader – and their replacement with less experienced people who are personally loyal to the leader. These people are more likely to view their political success as being intertwined with that of the leader rather than the party. They therefore are more likely to support the leader’s agenda, no matter how harmful it may be for democracy.</p>
<p>In Turkey, for example, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known in Turkish as the AKP, <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/north-africa-west-asia/the-sultan-and-his-sycophants-erdo%C4%9Fan-is-leading-turkey-towards-a-bleak-future/">initially included elites</a> who were established politicians, such as Ali Babacan, Abdullah Gul and Bulent Arinc. As time passed, however, Erdogan weeded out these veterans and replaced them with more loyal supporters. This paved the way for Erdogan to consolidate control, including – among other things – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/turkeys-new-presidential-system-and-a-changing-west/">shifting power</a> in 2018 from the parliament to the presidency and expanding his powers considerably.</p>
<h2>2. Official endorsement of leader’s actions</h2>
<p>In personalist parties, elites endorse the leader’s actions, cueing voters to do the same. Ordinary citizens who support personalist parties often go along with leaders’ efforts to dismantle democracy, even if they care about democracy, because <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/nature-and-origins-of-mass-opinion/70B1485D3A9CFF55ADCCDD42FC7E926A">they are highly receptive to signals provided by the party elite</a>. When the party higher-ups endorse – rather than condemn – the leader’s undemocratic inclinations, supporters get the message that nothing is wrong, and they fall in line.</p>
<p>In Brazil, for example, then-President Jair Bolsonaro generated doubts among supporters that the 2022 presidential elections would be fair, suggesting that electoral officials might manipulate the results in his opponent’s favor. The political elite, including members of Brazil’s Congress, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/25/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-misinformation.html">amplified these claims</a>.</p>
<p>These elite cues signaled to Bolsonaro supporters that his actions were compatible with a healthy democracy, ultimately setting the stage for them to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/supporters-brazils-bolsonaro-try-invade-federal-police-headquarters-2022-12-13/">resort to violence when Bolsonaro lost the election</a> in a contest that independent <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/10/30/audit-confirms-reliability-brazil-voting-system/">observers considered</a> free and fair.</p>
<h2>3. Polarizing society with controversy</h2>
<p>Leaders of personalist parties <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2021.0036">polarize the societies</a> they govern.</p>
<p>While many kinds of leaders demonize their political opponents, we have found that personalist party leaders’ anti-democratic behaviors – such as attempting to overturn an election they’ve lost – split society into polarized factions: those who support them and everyone else. </p>
<p>When opponents of the leader raise concerns that the leader’s actions are harmful to democracy, as the Democrats regularly have since Trump won office in 2016, supporters dig in their heels in defiance, incredulous that there is cause for concern. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/76/3/405/1894274">Affective polarization</a>, where citizens increasingly dislike their opponents, deepens. With the opponents vilified, the leader has the political support to take actions to keep the other side out of power, even if those actions undermine democracy in the process.</p>
<p>Take Venezuela, historically <a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2019-02-07/venezuela-was-once-richest-most-stable-democracy-latin-america-what-happened">one of the most stable</a> democracies in Latin America. Former President Hugo Chavez’s power grabs <a href="https://www.amherst.edu/media/view/330380/original/Ponniah%2Band%2BEastman%2BBook%2BCorrales%2BChapter%2Bpp67-98.pdf">splintered Venezuelan society</a>, dividing citizens over what the rules of the game should be and who should have access to power. As the chasm between his backers and the opposition grew, so did the abuses of power his supporters were willing to accept to ensure his continued rule. Chavez’s actions, which faced no resistance from those in his party, polarized society, ultimately pushing the country toward dictatorship.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man stands waving to a crowd of people holding signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571681/original/file-20240126-27-shudjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many Republican Party members back Trump, in part because other party leaders signal their own support.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Trump/818e7c1b8d8540f99d16c7cc8a6d235d/photo">AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The GOP is a personalist party</h2>
<p>The present Republican Party closely fits the personalist mold. </p>
<p>Conventionally, a party leader rises through the party ranks. But Trump didn’t do that, and before seeking the presidency, he didn’t have strong, collegial relationships with key Republican figures in government. Rather, he <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2015/aug/24/jeb-bush/bush-says-trump-was-democrat-longer-republican-las/">switched party allegiance several times</a> and before becoming president had never held any elected office.</p>
<p>Since 2016, Trump has increasingly sidelined the traditional party establishment to remake the party into an instrument to further his own personal, political and financial interests. As an indicator of this, the party elite have grown fearful of diverging from his agenda, so much so that the 2020 GOP platform essentially amounted to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-2020-republican-party-platform-letat-cest-moi/">“whatever Trump wants.”</a> Today, the main qualification for a Republican candidate or appointee appears to be <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-2024-reelection-cabinet-appointments/676121/">loyalty to Trump himself</a>, not fealty to longstanding GOP principles. Traditional parties, including the pre-Trump Republican Party, offer voters a bundle of policy positions hashed out among multiple elite factions of the party.</p>
<p>Trump’s supersized control over the Republican Party has transformed other leading party figures into sycophants, always seeking Trump’s favor. Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, after experiencing <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4420739-trump-desanctimonious-nickname-officially-retired/">ridicule</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/09/trump-attacks-desantis-no-personality-repeats-election-lies-nevada">abuse from Trump</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-haley-duke-it-out-new-hampshire-ahead-critical-primary-vote-2024-01-21/">endorsed the former president’s bid</a> to return to the White House. </p>
<h2>No resistance to a Trump power grab</h2>
<p>The personalist nature of the Republican Party means that if Trump were to win office again, he is unlikely to face pushback from the party on any issue. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html">All signs indicate</a> that Trump, if reelected, is likely to pursue an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/if-trump-wins/">authoritarian power grab</a> by, for example, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plan-gut-civil-service-triggers-pushback-by-unions-democrats-2023-12-22/">purging professional bureaucrats</a>, expanding the Supreme Court or using the Insurrection Act to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-military-insurrection-act-2024-election-03858b6291e4721991b5a18c2dfb3c36">deploy the military against protesters</a>. Party members may even support him in that power grab.</p>
<p>Most elected leaders are ambitious and, like Trump, seek to gain and hold onto power for as long as they can. Indeed, very few elected leaders resign voluntarily. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-us-politicians-so-old-and-why-do-they-want-to-stay-in-office-217024">octogenarians who fill Congress</a> attest to many politicians’ unwillingness to relinquish the power they have. </p>
<p>We have found that what matters for democracy is not so much the ambitions of power-hungry leaders, but rather whether those in their support group will tame them.</p>
<p>As our research shows, the most danger comes when personalist ruling parties hold legislative majorities and the presidency, meaning opposition parties in the legislature can’t stop the ruling party from dominating. In those circumstances, there is little that stands in the way of a grab for power. For instance, if Republicans won a slim Senate majority, they might abolish the filibuster. That would limit Democrats’ ability to hold up legislation they opposed. </p>
<p>Elected leaders backed by personalist parties are therefore often successful in dismantling institutional checks on their power, whether from the legislature or the courts. Leaders of personalist parties have attempted to curb judicial constraints in countries as different as <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/09/02/el-salvador-new-laws-threaten-judicial-independence">El Salvador</a>, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/12/14/hungarys-latest-assault-judiciary">Hungary</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/27/1166200532/israel-civil-war-netanyahu-court-control">Israel</a>, with the ruling parties doing little to stop their efforts. </p>
<p>Long-standing and wealthy democracies, like the U.S., are <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/democracy-and-development/4A5F43C449ADA81BDB9293D5B10D27C1">remarkably resilient</a> to the challenges that confront them. But ruling party personalism helps elected leaders undercut these protective guardrails. Because the Republican Party has taken a personalist turn under Trump’s spell, democracy in the U.S. would suffer should Trump win a second term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221828/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Frantz has received funding from USAID, the Luminate Foundation; Charles Koch Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>My organization, CNAS receives funding from multiple sources, including funding that supported this research from a foundation called Luminate. I currently work for a think tank called the Center for a New America Security and a consulting company called West Exec Advisors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Wright received funding from the Luminate Foundation; Charles Koch Foundation; McCourtney Institute for Democracy; and the Minerva Research Initiative.</span></em></p>A second Trump presidency may be a danger to democracy, but that’s more to do with the Republican Party than Trump himself, researchers of authoritarianism explain.Erica Frantz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityAndrea Kendall-Taylor, Distinguished Practitioner in Grand Strategy, Jackson School of Public Affairs, Yale UniversityJoseph Wright, Professor of Political Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102682023-07-24T20:09:49Z2023-07-24T20:09:49ZPolitical staffers can make or break election promises – they deserve better management<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538880/original/file-20230724-194450-2itzt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1322%2C13%2C6025%2C2805&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political parties and candidates spend most of their time proposing policies they promise will improve voters’ lives if elected to government. But actually delivering on those promises requires another kind of political operative: staffers.</p>
<p>These taxpayer-funded employees or advisers <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/unelected-lynchpin-why-government-needs-special-advisers">play crucial roles</a>, and yet they are often mismanaged. Staffers can be the hidden heroes – or villains – of the political process. When they occasionally <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/112494041/national-partys-emotional-junior-staffer-brian-anderton-resigns">make headlines</a>, it is almost invariably for the wrong reasons.</p>
<p>Parliamentary reviews in <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/set-standard-2021">Australia</a>, Britain and <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/how-parliament-works/office-of-the-speaker/corporate-documents/independent-external-review-into-bullying-and-harassment-in-the-new-zealand-parliamentary-workplace-final-report/">New Zealand</a> have documented various problems. Those who take on these jobs rarely receive effective training, work incredibly long hours, <a href="https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350019540/political-staffers-lacking-support-sacrificing-personal-lives-and-mental-health">sacrifice their personal lives</a> and <a href="https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350022502/kris-faafoi-it-s-a-fine-line-between-being-a-head-case-and-headstrong-at-parliament">experience high levels of stress</a> – if not outright <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/23/half-uk-mps-staff-clinical-levels-psychological-distress-study">clinical distress</a>.</p>
<p>Public servants themselves have taken the initiative, including offering advice to MPs on managing staff, establishing a <a href="https://pwss.gov.au/">Parliamentary Workplace Support Service</a> in Australia, introducing <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/respectful-workplace-policy-office-prime-minister-ministers-offices.html">respectful workplace policies</a> in Canada, and establishing <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/footer/about-us/parliaments-workplace-culture/behavioural-statements-for-the-parliamentary-workplace/">behavioural expectations</a> in New Zealand’s parliament.</p>
<p>However, my <a href="https://politicalmanagement.wordpress.com/hrm-political-staffers/">new research</a> – based on interviews with advisers to former prime ministers Scott Morrison (Australia), Boris Johnson (Britain) and Jacinda Ardern (New Zealand), and Canada’s current leader Justin Trudeau – concludes that political parties need to take the lead if they want to deliver their agenda once elected.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1682331140471025664"}"></div></p>
<h2>Proper recruitment processes</h2>
<p>Better management of political staff requires better planning. As one longstanding chief of staff told me, reflecting on their eight years in government: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If I could whisper in someone’s ear into the future, I’d say really take that time on organisation. How you set things up can make such a difference to your success at delivery.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>New governments have to fill a high number of posts all at once. They are a bit like a business start-up, except they are running a country. They often make problematic hires, or start without sufficient staff. As one UK staffer explained: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Parties need to give a lot more thought to year-round recruitment and talent identification, because you can’t just suddenly turn up at Downing Street and put a new machine together.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Parties therefore need to identify potential talent before an election. They also need to look beyond the usual circles to find the right people. Campaign volunteers won’t automatically be suitable. Those with relevant skills may not be lifelong party members. </p>
<p>Scouting talent means having initial conversations followed by professional selection processes. Ultimately, it’s about ensuring those selected are capable of doing the actual job – not simply rewarding loyalty.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538881/original/file-20230724-233455-7bnydt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Seat of power: ‘You can’t just suddenly turn up at Downing Street and put a new machine together.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Managing the political workplace</h2>
<p>Those likely to be involved in managing staff need to be trained on best practice within a political workplace. This applies not only to chiefs of staff, but to anyone in a senior role or who heads a team. </p>
<p>For example, political staffers need ongoing feedback, and not merely when things go wrong. They also need help with managing the never-ending workload, identifying priorities and where best to focus their time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/parliament-is-not-a-normal-workplace-anti-bullying-policy-must-start-with-ethical-leadership-and-accountability-193196">Parliament is not a normal workplace – anti-bullying policy must start with ethical leadership and accountability</a>
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<p>Maintaining wellbeing and avoiding burnout means instigating rules: limiting late-evening contact unless there’s a crisis, for example, and encouraging staff to take occasional but complete breaks from work.</p>
<p>Setting a clear shared purpose will also help people see the difference their work is making over time. One former staffer put it this way:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Maintaining morale is a big part of political management […] things get bad and can get dark in offices.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Orientation and training</h2>
<p>Because there is often a lack of human resource management infrastructure for political staffers, parties need effective staff training systems. A senior staffer recalled to me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I remember walking into the office on the first day after the prime minister was sworn in, and it was empty. It was just me. No handover, nothing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some of this is inevitable – parties and leaders just voted out are unlikely to provide much continuity. And the public service is wary of straying into partisan matters. But incoming parties need to take action to fill the gap.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-has-a-history-of-prominent-public-servants-who-were-also-outspoken-public-intellectuals-whats-changed-201370">NZ has a history of prominent public servants who were also outspoken public intellectuals – what’s changed?</a>
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<p>More experienced staffers would ideally spend time mentoring and supporting newer colleagues. Yet a party new to power won’t have many veteran staff to call on. They may need to find former senior staff willing to return and share their wisdom, or make use of relevant research.</p>
<p>Bespoke training programmes relevant to specific roles need to be created. These can include generic topics, such as maintaining respectful workplaces, time and project management, and maintaining resilience. But they should also have political context about advancing party policies and priorities.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-political-staffers-are-vulnerable-to-sexual-misconduct-and-little-is-done-to-stop-it-155300">Why political staffers are vulnerable to sexual misconduct — and little is done to stop it</a>
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<h2>One community</h2>
<p>Finally, all political staffers need to be seen as one community, regardless of which office they work in. It’s much harder to instil positive workplace norms and practices if everyone exists in silos.</p>
<p>People will also support one other and learn from their peers if they are connected through regular events. These can build relationships between staffers in different offices. In turn, this helps advance policy in government.</p>
<p>Anyone serious about becoming prime minister or seeking political office should start thinking about those hidden heroes – political staffers – before an election, not after it. </p>
<p>Winning power is only the beginning, after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Lees-Marshment does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Having interviewed advisers to past and present prime ministers in Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand, my new research shows how crucial it is to recruit and train staff – before an election.Jennifer Lees-Marshment, Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050052023-05-16T10:59:38Z2023-05-16T10:59:38ZKenya’s political elites switch parties with every election – how this fuels violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524923/original/file-20230508-173480-qsf6ds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters at the launch of the Jubilee Party manifesto in Nairobi, Kenya, in June 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jubilee-party-supporters-of-kenyas-president-uhuru-kenyatta-news-photo/801424352?adppopup=true">Simon Maina/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Barely seven months after leaving office, Kenya’s former president Uhuru Kenyatta <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kanini-kega-led-jubilee-faction-kicks-out-uhuru-as-party-leader--4220148">is battling</a> to keep together the party that won him a second term and a majority in parliament in 2017. His <a href="https://web.facebook.com/TheJubileeParty/?_rdc=1&_rdr">Jubilee Party</a> performed dismally in the 2022 election. Only 27 out of 290 <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/the-national-assembly/mps">members of the national assembly</a>, four out of 47 <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/the-senate/senators">senators</a> and one county governor out of 47 were elected on its ticket. This isn’t surprising in Kenya where political elites switch parties and coalitions with every election. No political party or coalition has ruled for more than one term since the opposition deposed the independence movement, KANU, in 2002. Gilbert Khadiagala, a political scientist who has researched <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364268431_Coalition_politics_in_Kenya_Superficial_assemblages_and_momentary_vehicles_to_attain_power">the fluidity of Kenya’s political coalitions</a>, explains the impact of this.</em></p>
<h2>What is the background of Kenya’s fluid political landscape?</h2>
<p>The onset of the multiparty era in the early 1990s <a href="https://www.ohioswallow.com/book/Multi-Party+Politics+in+Kenya">brought</a> a new phase of complex political coalitions and alliances. They were competing against the previously dominant political party, the Kenya African National Union (KANU). Typical of Africa’s post-colonial dominant parties, KANU governed for more than two decades through authoritarian methods. Under presidents Jomo Kenyatta (1963-1978) and Daniel Moi (1978-2002), KANU co-opted opposition figures into an elaborate system of patronage and coerced critics who didn’t toe the party line. </p>
<p>The coalitions that emerged were based primarily on ethnic and regional affiliations – they were overwhelmingly elite-based. The first was the Forum for the Restoration Democracy (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Forum-for-the-Restoration-of-Democracy">FORD</a>). However, barely a year into its existence, FORD broke into two major factions – FORD Kenya and FORD Asili – in August 1992. Further splits followed. </p>
<p>The dominant coalitions that participated in the August 2022 elections – the Kenya Kwanza alliance (led by William Ruto) and the Azimio alliance (led by Raila Odinga) – comprise many smaller parties. They are products of previous failed attempts at alliance building.</p>
<p>In 30 years of competitive politics, coalitions were expected to gradually stabilise into coherent political parties with national reach and resonance. Instead, political coalitions in Kenya have not advanced beyond their narrow bases. They remain fundamentally ethnic and regional machines that are frequently scrambled together on the eve of elections to win power. </p>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.academia.edu/3497247/Political_movements_and_coalition_politics_in_Kenya_entrenching_ethnicity">studied</a> Kenya’s politics for 30 years. It’s my view that Kenyan coalitions that rise and fall with every election do not provide the foundation for steady and enduring party systems. These coalitions postpone the evolution of national parties that would lend some predictability and stability to political competition.</p>
<p>Parties should broadly reflect – and manage – societal differences. In Germany, for instance, parties have come together to overcome certain historical differences by calling on shared interests. Germany’s coalition governments are largely based on well-established political parties, not conglomerations concocted before elections as in Kenya. And <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/nejo.12310">political parties negotiate</a> these governing coalitions after elections, not before.</p>
<p>Throughout Africa, where ethnic and regional divisions are paramount, political mobilisations deepen societal differences. Electoral violence occurs because winning coalitions control all the national resources. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/victors-go-spoils-how-winner-takes-all-politics-undermine-democracy-sierra-leone">winner-takes-all</a> political systems of countries like Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Sierra Leone face a related problem: they have very small independent private sectors. So winners are tempted to use political power to <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ_French/journals_E/Volume-08_Issue-2/nsia-pepra_e.pdf">grab</a> national resources. </p>
<h2>What are the main weaknesses of fluid political coalitions?</h2>
<p>They cause instability in the country. Unstable coalitions contribute to electoral violence as losing coalitions vent their grievances. Following the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/12/kenyan-protests-against-kenyatta-election-victory-turn-deadly">violent aftermath</a> of the 2017 Kenyan elections, Odinga’s coalition at the time, the National Super Alliance (NASA), threatened to agitate for the secession of his support base from Kenya. </p>
<p>In 2002, there was a brief phase of optimism for an enduring coalition. The National Rainbow Alliance (NARC), led by Mwai Kibaki, was a grouping of the leading ethnic groups ranged against Moi’s chosen successor, Kenyatta. But it ended in <a href="https://www.csis.org/blogs/smart-global-health/background-post-election-crisis-kenya">civil conflict</a> in 2007-2008 after Kibaki marginalised key allies largely on ethnic and regional lines. </p>
<p>The Government of National Unity <a href="https://successfulsocieties.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf5601/files/LS_Kenya_Powersharing_FINAL.pdf">crafted</a> by international actors in 2008 became an uneasy and unwieldy coalition. Its members decamped to <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/kenyas-government-of-national-unity-about-to-collapse">new coalitions</a> in the next elections. </p>
<p>Subsequent political alliances have reproduced the conditions for anxiety and chaos after every election. Despite the <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/lex/actview.xql?actid=Const2010">2010 constitution</a> giving more power to Kenya’s 47 counties, political elites remain fixated on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/14662043.2015.1089006?needAccess=true&role=button">winning presidential elections</a> to gain power at the centre. </p>
<p>The unstable coalitions also account for widespread corruption. Winning coalitions <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-run-for-office-in-kenya-heres-how-much-itll-cost-you-183683">expend enormous resources</a> to fortify their power. To do this they have to loot state resources. </p>
<h2>What are the strengths of these loose coalitions?</h2>
<p>In societies where ethnic groups coincide with regions, coalitions are one of the means of organising competitive politics. The loose coalitions enable leaders who neither share policies nor vision to temporarily accommodate each other. This creates a semblance of national unity. The fluid coalitions are, therefore, essential in such political landscapes until national cohesion and coherence are achieved. </p>
<p>When the search for presidential power ceases to be politically relevant and salient, Kenya’s politics will be normalised. Transforming coalitions into solid parties may take time. But it’s the only way out of the prevailing political stalemate. </p>
<h2>What adjustments should be made?</h2>
<p>Kenyans do share basic bread-and-butter interests. When those interests are highlighted – instead of ethnic and regional affiliations – political parties with national outreach could emerge. </p>
<p>It’s elites who emphasise cultural and ethnic differences between regions. They have a large stake in the stalemate continuing, instead of building institutionalised parties. The puzzle for Kenya is how to transform ethnic diversities and identities into the foundations for predictable and organised politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gilbert M. Khadiagala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The fluidity of the country’s short-lived coalitions is a major cause of instability in Kenya.Gilbert M. Khadiagala, Jan Smuts Professor of International Relations and Director of the African Centre for the Study of the United States (ACSUS), University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021702023-03-20T13:41:39Z2023-03-20T13:41:39ZThe SNP lost tens of thousands of members under Nicola Sturgeon – here’s why that should worry her successor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516365/original/file-20230320-16-19cy20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C87%2C8179%2C5268&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alamy/Xinhua</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses his real condition of life and his relations with his kind.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So wrote Marx and Engels in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxSYVBm8CoQ">Communist Manifesto</a>. They were talking about how what had previously been taken for granted could be swept away by capitalism. But they might as well have been talking about the way the contest for the leadership of the Scottish National Party has upended all our assumptions about that party – not least, that it was exceptionally united and had an impressively large and loyal rank-and-file membership.</p>
<p>That’s because, following Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation, the party has rapidly succumbed to the kind of bitter ideological infighting between ambitious rivals that many of us had begun to associate almost exclusively with the Conservative Party south of the border.</p>
<p>And not only that: in the course of the contest, the party has been forced, under pressure, to admit that it has nowhere near as many members as the rest of us had assumed – an admission that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606">prompted the resignation</a> of the SNP’s embattled chief-executive, Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell.</p>
<p>Quite why the latest figure of 72,186 members had to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/16/snp-reveals-number-of-members-eligible-to-vote-on-leadership-much-lower-than-estimated">dragged out of party HQ</a> is, for the moment at least, anyone’s guess. But what is certain is that it constitutes a marked drop on the 100,000-plus that was widely quoted before this latest number was reluctantly released.</p>
<p>And it seems equally certain that we are seeing the end of a truly phenomenal period of grassroots growth for the Scottish nationalists which began after (and probably during) the 2014 independence referendum. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table showing how SNP membership has risen and then fallen over the past decade." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516374/original/file-20230320-18-eo3bqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The rise and fall of SNP membership over the years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The SNP, of course, isn’t the only party in the UK to have experienced something of a membership growth spurt during the last decade. Lots more people were prompted to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1369148118815408">join the Labour Party</a> under Jeremy Corbyn. And, although it escaped most people’s notice, the Liberal Democrats <a href="https://www.markpack.org.uk/143767/liberal-democrat-membership-figures/">attracted a lot of new members</a> when they returned to opposition after five pretty brutal years in coalition with the Conservatives between 2010 and 2015. Meanwhile, the Tories themselves issued just over 172,000 ballots to members in the summer 2022 leadership contest won by Liz Truss, compared with the 159,000 or so it had issued in 2019 when Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.</p>
<h2>Reasons for leaving</h2>
<p>The question of why people join political parties has preoccupied academic observers since the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/labours-grass-roots-9780198273585">pioneering survey research</a> carried out by academics Patrick Seyd and Paul Whiteley in the late 1980s – a tradition built on more recently on by the Party Members Project run out of <a href="https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/">Queen Mary University of London and the University of Sussex</a>.</p>
<p>What we’ve tended to pay far less attention to, however, is why members leave. This is the issue that should now be worrying the SNP, assuming that, like most political parties, it welcomes not just the legitimacy a thriving membership confers on its cause, but also the money and manpower members contribute.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean that there’s been no research into this question. It is one we tried to answer in our book <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Footsoldiers-Political-Party-Membership-in-the-21st-Century/Bale-Webb-Poletti/p/book/9781138302464">Footsoldiers: Political Party Membership in the 21st Century</a>, and which we followed up more recently after Keir Starmer replaced Corbyn in 2020 – a development that caused much soul-searching last summer when the party was reported to have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62582014">lost tens of thousands of members</a>.</p>
<p>Although parties often fret (not without reason) about administrative failings or the cost of membership or even boring or conflictual meetings driving members away, our surveys of people who’ve quit parties show that none of these matter that much.</p>
<p>Instead, what prompts people to let their membership lapse or, more dramatically, to leave in high dudgeon is a sense that the party is going in the wrong direction, or adopting a particular policy or policies that they disagree with.</p>
<p>Our research also shows that this ideologically-motivated distancing and detachment is often bound up with dissatisfaction or plain disagreement with the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1354068820962035">leader of the party</a> – whether that be the incumbent or their successor.</p>
<p>What is particularly interesting in this regard is that the SNP’s recent loss of members occurred on Nicola Sturgeon’s watch, not as a result of her resigning. This suggests that, for whatever reason, a fair few people had become disillusioned with <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-resignation-the-unanswered-questions-for-scotland-and-the-snp-she-leaves-behind-200010">her leadership and the direction in which the party was going</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the SNP, it seems fairly likely – <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64939777">especially given the bitterness engendered by the contest to replace her</a> – that whoever takes over from Sturgeon may well end up presiding over further losses, as those disappointed with the result quit too.</p>
<p>If that does happen, then we should also monitor what happens to membership of the Labour and Green parties north of the border, as well as of the alternative nationalist party, Alba. That’s because one thing we also know from our research is that a surprising number of people actually leave their party <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2021.1941062">in order to join another one</a>. So watch this space.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Bale's research for the Party Members Project was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). </span></em></p>Nicola Sturgeon has quit and now her husband Peter Murrell has resigned as chief-executive following news the SNP has lost more than 30,000 members since December 2021.Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005182023-03-10T00:05:35Z2023-03-10T00:05:35ZWomen in politics: To run or not to run?<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Event poster: In Conversation With Semra Sevi, March 15 at 1 p.m. ET" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514564/original/file-20230309-26-t58ci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.meetview.ca/SSHRC20230315/">Click here to register for In Conversation With Semra Sevi.</a></span>
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</figure>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/in-conversation-with-118639">series</a> that includes live interviews with Canada’s top social sciences and humanities academics. <a href="https://www.meetview.ca/SSHRC20230315/">Click here to register for In Conversation With Semra Sevi</a>, March 15 at 1 p.m. ET. This is a virtual event co-hosted by The Conversation Canada and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</em></p>
<p>Despite progress towards gender equality, women’s representation in Canadian politics continues to fall short. With <a href="https://semrasevi.com/candidates-in-canadian-elections-datasets/#jp-carousel-1107">only 30 per cent of seats in the House of Commons held by women</a>, there is still a long way to go for Parliament to capture the diversity of the population it represents. </p>
<p>There are several factors that contribute to the persistent gender disparities in the political process. Research on women in politics has identified multiple obstacles that hinder women’s representation, with three factors emerging as the most prominent explanations. </p>
<h2>Three obstacles to women in politics</h2>
<p>The first is that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000495">voters might have gender bias</a>. This is the idea that, for various reasons, voters might prefer a man over a woman candidate. </p>
<p>The second is that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12158">women may not be interested to run as candidates</a>. This is the idea that women might be more risk-averse when it comes to campaigns and elections, or that women may lack self-confidence and have lower levels of political ambition compared to men.</p>
<p>The third obstacle is that even when women are willing to run, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00069.x">parties tend to choose men over women</a>. This might be because they believe the likelihood of men winning is higher than for women. That means that while parties have the tools to diversify candidate slates and to address electoral underrepresentation, they frequently act as gatekeepers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chart showing percentage of women in the population, candidates and MPs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514562/original/file-20230309-147-c4ljrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Only 30 per cent of seats in Canada’s House of Commons are held by women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Semra Sevi</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Testing the theories with data</h2>
<p>I have spent several years gathering data and conducting experiments to examine these theories explaining why women are underrepresented in politics.</p>
<p>I built an <a href="https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ABFNSQ">original longitudinal dataset</a> that tracks all candidates across elections since 1867 in Canadian federal elections. This is the first publicly available comprehensive data of candidate election returns in Canada. </p>
<p>These data include all candidates who ran for elections at the federal level and includes socio-demographic information about them such as their gender, age, whether they’re incumbents, occupation, Indigenous origins, if they identify as a member of the LGBTQ2+ community and so on. I have also collected similar information for candidates at the Ontario provincial level. </p>
<p>I have used these data to examine whether women get fewer votes than men at both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000495">the federal</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=FR9yorkAAAAJ&citation_for_view=FR9yorkAAAAJ:3fE2CSJIrl8C">Ontario provincial</a> level. </p>
<p>I find that while women used to receive fewer votes, this is no longer the case. Women who run are just as likely to win as their men counterparts. </p>
<p>However, if we believe voters are biased against women, we would expect to see this even after they are elected. Therefore, I also examined whether <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12376">incumbency advantage is gendered</a>. Here also I did not find any evidence to suggest that voters are biased against women incumbents. </p>
<p>More recently, I revisited the second explanation that women are more risk-averse to campaigns and elections with my PhD adviser, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andre-blais-1269820/articles">André Blais</a>. We designed an online laboratory experiment during the peak of the pandemic. This was an interactive experiment with three elections: 1) a lottery election with no campaign; 2) election with votes but no campaign; and 3) election with votes and a campaign. </p>
<p>We find that women are just as likely as men to be candidates in all three types of elections. In other words, women do not appear to be less willing to run in elections with campaigns. </p>
<h2>Political party recruitment</h2>
<p>In summary, my work suggests that the underrepresentation of women in politics is not due to a shortage of qualified women candidates or voter bias against women candidates. By process of elimination, my future work will examine whether the gender gap persists because parties tend to prefer men candidates over women candidates. </p>
<p>We see some evidence of this when we look at memoirs written by politicians. </p>
<p>Anecdotally, we know that women are less likely to be encouraged to run for office than men. Memoirs written by men politicians in Canada show a consistent pattern. They reveal that although they believe they were born to lead someday, and were looking to fulfil a lifelong dream, they were more likely to be recruited by multiple sources to run for office. </p>
<p>Women, on the other hand, are more likely to say they entered politics because of a specific policy concern and, if they were recruited, it was by fewer sources and on fewer occasions. </p>
<p>Unlocking the bottleneck for women in politics requires a closer examination of the party recruitment process. By identifying the obstacles that women face, we can pave the way forward towards a more inclusive Parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Semra Sevi receives funding from SSHRC for her Banting postdoctoral fellowship in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. She is also a visiting scholar at McGill University with the Institute for the Study of Canada. </span></em></p>Research suggests that women may be underrepresented in politics because parties act as gatekeepers and tend to choose men over women as candidates.Semra Sevi, Banting Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Political Science, Columbia University. Incoming Assistant Professor of Canadian Politics, Department of Political Science, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1989022023-02-28T13:57:40Z2023-02-28T13:57:40ZGod and politics in South Africa: the ruling ANC’s winning strategy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510292/original/file-20230215-18-eroxa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pastors pray for former South African president and ANC leader Jacob Zuma.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rajesh Jantilal/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Religion shapes some of the most controversial decisions that governments need to make: access to abortion, same-sex marriage, the death penalty and the legal status of sex work. Indeed, it is likely that most voters across the world consider religion to be essential to their lives. </p>
<p>Yet research on religion and political parties remains surprisingly inexact. </p>
<p>Much of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09637494.2022.2048489?journalCode=crss20">research</a> to date has been waylaid by the wrong question: is a political party fundamentally religious or secular? Yet the “essence” of a party resists definition. Is it its manifesto, rhetoric, membership or leadership? What if these contradict each other? What would it mean if religion was integral to officially secular parties?</p>
<p>The difficulty of this approach is clear when considering a party like the <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">African National Congress (ANC)</a>, which has governed South Africa since 1994. From one angle, it is obviously not a religious party: it remains committed to a secular state and many of its policies (such as those on <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/the-ancs-approach-to-abortion--bathabile-dlamini">abortion</a> and <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2006-11-14-samesex-bill-gets-parliament-goahead/">civil unions</a>) have been <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/27434/">criticised</a> by religious groups.</p>
<p>Yet the ANC is also religious in important senses. In most of the country, you would struggle to find an ANC meeting that did not start and end with a prayer. Nearly all leaders in the past century have been devout. For many supporters, religion is the water in which the ANC swims. </p>
<p>Rather than asking whether a party is religious, we should look at how it engages with religion. I examined the issue in a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057070.2022.2136820">recent article</a>. I sought to describe how contemporary parliamentary parties in South Africa had engaged with religion throughout their history, and how academics had analysed this.</p>
<p>It’s possible to learn a great deal about a political party by looking at how it uses religion. My study identified a consistent political strategy: the mix of religious rhetoric and a secular policy agenda by the ANC over the past century.</p>
<p>This strategy has been popular with the party, which has won every national election with a margin of at least <a href="https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/app/dashboard.html">34 percentage points</a> ahead of the second-largest party. It’s a strategy that works in countries that have the unusual combination of religious electorates and secular governments, such as <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/religious-authority-and-state-africa">Kenya and Senegal</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than being a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2012-07-06-south-africas-creeping-christian-conservatism/">threat to secular democracy</a>, religious rhetoric may be important for ensuring a largely religious electorate feels politically at home in a secular state. </p>
<h2>Religion and political parties in South Africa</h2>
<p>My review of academic publications on religion and political parties in South Africa looked at three sets of rules governing party members: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>informal rules (such as what you can say at public events) </p></li>
<li><p>party rules (such as disciplinary codes and who makes decisions) </p></li>
<li><p>the kind of laws proposed by the party. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>I distinguished between the religious or secular emphasis in each of these, and noted whether this emphasis was inclusive of other beliefs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-are-prone-to-falling-for-charlatans-in-the-church-112879">Why South Africans are prone to falling for charlatans in the church</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The framework offered three key insights. </p>
<p>First, political parties engage with religion with nuance and ambiguity. This applies elsewhere in the world too: <a href="https://www.akparti.org.tr/en">Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi</a> in Turkey, for example, relies on a religious electorate for support. Yet it must navigate an officially and sometimes militantly secular state. However, in contrast to South Africa’s major political parties, it <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230106703_9">manages this tension</a> by insisting that it is an inclusive and non-religious party in its rhetoric, while simultaneously pursuing laws that privilege Sunni Islam.</p>
<p>Second, the ANC sometimes uses religious rhetoric while pursuing secular laws and party rules – a combination it has used for <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-African-Nationalism-South-Africa/dp/0520018109">most of its history</a>. </p>
<p>Third, this nuance might be important to voters in South Africa. Parties that pursue policies underpinned by religion do very poorly in elections. An example of this is the <a href="https://www.acdp.org.za/">African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP)</a>, which claims to offer policies based on the Bible.</p>
<p>About 78% of South Africans identified as Christian <a href="https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/611">in 2016</a>. While estimates vary significantly, between <a href="https://theotherfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ProgPrudes_Report_d5.pdf">45%</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2010/04/15/executive-summary-islam-and-christianity-in-sub-saharan-africa/">74%</a> report being “very” or “highly religious”, and 76% <a href="https://theotherfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ProgPrudes_Report_d5.pdf">agree that</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>God’s laws about abortion, pornography and marriage must be strictly followed before it is too late.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The ANC and religion</h2>
<p>Christianity has been important to the ANC’s values and practices since the party’s <a href="https://jacana.co.za/product/the-founders-the-origins-of-the-african-national-congress-and-the-struggle-for-democracy/">beginning in 1912</a>. In 1949, for example, it called for an annual <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-African-Nationalism-South-Africa/dp/0520018109">day of prayer</a> to remember</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Christ who is the Champion of Freedom.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many regions in the country that participated most actively in the 1952 <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/defiance-campaign-1952">Defiance Campaign</a>, a large non-violent campaign of civil disobedience against apartheid, were led by <a href="https://jacana.co.za/product/from-protest-to-challenge-volume-2-hope-and-challenge-1935-1952/">local churches</a>. ANC president Albert Luthuli, who led the organisation from 1952 to 1967, was <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10282580902876514">famously vocal</a> about his religious convictions. This was also true of most presidents of the ANC before him, including <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/823310">Reverend John Langalibalele Dube</a> and <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.4102/hts.v74i1.4844">Reverend Zaccheus Richard Mahabane</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-anc-survive-the-end-of-south-africas-heroic-epoch-57256">Can the ANC survive the end of South Africa's heroic epoch?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet the ANC has also always been an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-insists-its-still-a-political-vanguard-this-is-what-ails-democracy-in-south-africa-141938">ideologically diverse organisation</a>. It has included followers of other religions, communists, traditionalists and <a href="http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/502.html">Garveyites</a> who advocated transnational black nationalism. </p>
<p>In the 1960s the religious rhetoric of the ANC became more ambivalent. Within the context of the Cold War, the organisation worked more closely with the South African Communist Party and increasingly <a href="https://iupress.org/9780253332318/from-protest-to-challenge-volume-5/">espoused</a> a Marxist-Leninist ideology.</p>
<p>Yet even so, ANC president <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-is-celebrating-the-year-of-or-tambo-who-was-he-85838">Oliver Tambo</a>, who led the ANC in exile <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/oliver-reginald-kaizana-%E2%80%9Cor%E2%80%9D-tambo-posthumous">from 1967 to 1991</a>, continued to publicly espouse the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/we-must-take-sides">unbroken link</a> between the ANC and the church. </p>
<p>The ANC would call for days of prayer, establish a department of religion, publicly affirm liberation theology and issue joint communiqués with churches.
In the early 1990s, the ANC <a href="https://www.amazon.com/State-Secularism-Religion-Tradition-Democracy/dp/1776140575">advocated a secular state</a> in constitutional negotiations with the ruling <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/National-Party-political-party-South-Africa">National Party</a>. Yet even in the 1994 election, the message was mixed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520273085/wild-religion">ANC advertisements featured religious leaders</a> who argued that the manifesto that best represented “gospel values” was that of the ANC. Conversely, the ANC also promised improved access to abortion: a policy criticised by religious leaders. </p>
<p>This mix of secular laws and religious rhetoric extended into the post-apartheid era. Former ANC president Jacob Zuma’s <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15570274.2020.1753992">frequent references to religion</a>, for example, invited concern about the ANC’s “<a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2012-07-06-south-africas-creeping-christian-conservatism/">creeping Christian conservatism</a>”, while the party began exploring <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/650537/new-laws-to-decriminalise-sex-work-in-south-africa/">decriminalising sex work</a>. </p>
<h2>Religion and politics</h2>
<p>Perhaps the combination of religious rhetoric and secular laws is a winning electoral strategy. After all, parties that advocate religious laws have surprisingly little support from voters: the <a href="https://www.acdp.org.za/">ACDP</a> and <a href="https://www.aljama.co.za/">Al Jama-Ah</a>, a Muslim political party, have at most won <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/souresults2004.htm">1.6% (in 2004)</a> and <a href="https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/app/dashboard.html">0.18% (in 2019)</a> of the national vote, respectively. At their best, the ACDP has been the seventh-largest party and Al Jama-Ah the 14th. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/christians-in-nigeria-feel-under-attack-why-its-a-complicated-story-186853">Christians in Nigeria feel under attack: why it's a complicated story</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Conversely, parties that advocate secular laws but shy away from religious rhetoric, such as the main opposition Democratic Alliance, have also failed to win popular support, especially in rural areas. Of course, many other reasons contribute to this too. </p>
<p>In short, we can learn much about a political party by looking at how it uses religion. The ANC may have a winning strategy in its combination of religious rhetoric and a secular policy agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Jeffery-Schwikkard receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in the United Kingdom through the London Interdisciplinary Social Science Doctoral Training Programme. He is a member of the African National Congress but he does not receive any funding or renumeration from the ANC or represent the ANC in any capacity. </span></em></p>Perhaps the combination of religious rhetoric and secular laws is a winning electoral strategy.David Jeffery-Schwikkard, PhD Candidate (Theology and Religious Studies), King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2001252023-02-22T10:35:24Z2023-02-22T10:35:24ZNigerian elections are crowded with candidates: use this new tool to decide who to vote for in your area<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511630/original/file-20230222-18-c8nmnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A group of voters showing their cards. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-queue-to-cast-their-vote-during-the-edo-state-news-photo/1228601489?phrase=nigeria%20voting&adppopup=true"> Olukayode Jaiyeola/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Final-List-of-Candidates-for-National-Elections-1.pdf">Eighteen political parties</a> are contesting for Nigeria’s presidential elections scheduled for 25 February. Yes, 18 parties. But that’s not the highest number of parties in Nigeria’s election history. The record was in February 2019, when <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/313139-for-the-record-nigerias-73-presidential-candidates-full-list.html?tztc=1">73 political parties</a> presented presidential candidates. </p>
<p>In the 2023 elections, the Nigerian media have devoted most of their attention to four parties and their candidates. This leaves an information gap about the others. And the presidency is just one position being filled. There are hundreds of other political posts that will be determined. </p>
<p>To fill the gaps, a new election tool has been launched which will help voters decide who to cast their ballot for – and where.</p>
<h2>The tracker</h2>
<p>The tool, called <a href="https://mycandidate-nigeria.opencitieslab.org/">My Candidate Nigeria</a>, is an initiative that falls under the <a href="https://datahub.io/docs/about">Africa Data Hub</a>. Its aim is to inform voters and strengthen democracy. </p>
<p>The tool helps voters in Nigeria identify candidates for the elections based on their location address. </p>
<p>You can try it and discover who the candidates are and where to vote. </p>
<iframe src="https://mycandidate-nigeria.opencitieslab.org/" allow="geolocation" style="border: none;width: 100%; height:100vw" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<h2>Focus on a few</h2>
<p>The tool is important because the media has tended to focus on just a few candidates and their parties:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-61732548">Bola Tinubu</a> of the All Progressives Congress</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-61865502">Peter Obi</a> of the Labour Party</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47046599">Atiku Abubakar</a> of the Peoples Democratic Party</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64503296">Rabiu Kwankwaso</a> of the New Nigeria People’s Party. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Some of the other candidates vying for presidency include former student leader <a href="https://saharareporters.com/2023/01/21/aac-flag-bearer-sowore-condemns-lopsided-sitting-arrangement-nigerian-presidential">Omoyele Sowore</a>, contesting under the banner of the African Action Congress, and <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/sdp-elects-adewole-adebayo-as-presidential-candidate/">Adewole Adebayo</a> of the Social Democratic Party. <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/01/i-will-deal-decisively-with-secessionists-kola-abiola-vows/">Kola Abiola</a> is contesting on the ticket of the People’s Redemption Party. We also have <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/06/09/abachas-ex-cso-al-mustapha-emerges-action-alliance-presidential-candidate/">Hamza Al-Mustapha</a> flying the flag of Action Alliance, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frwqZpuOFug">Dumebi Kachikwu</a> of the African Democratic Congress. <a href="https://businessday.ng/politics/article/an-amazon-in-the-midst-of-17-men-the-story-of-apms-presidential-candidate-chichi-ojei/">Chichi Ojei</a> of the Allied Peoples Movement is the only female presidential candidate. </p>
<h2>Hundreds of choices</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-poll-93-million-voters-the-challenge-of-pulling-off-nigerias-presidential-elections-199761">There are 1,101 candidates for the Senate and 3,122 candidates</a> vying for federal constituencies in the House of Representatives. The elections will be conducted across 176,606 polling stations. </p>
<p>In terms of gender, <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/2023-inec-publishes-final-list-of-candidates/">3,875 candidates are male</a>, made up of 35 for presidential and vice-president, 1,008 for Senate and 2,832 for House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Meanwhile 381 women are contesting: one for president, 92 for Senate and 288 for House of Representatives. There are also 11 people with disabilities in the race.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-poll-93-million-voters-the-challenge-of-pulling-off-nigerias-presidential-elections-199761">A total of 1,265,227 officials</a> have been trained and will be deployed for the elections. They include presiding, collation and returning officers, as well as 530,538 polling unit security officials. The electoral commission will deploy over one million personnel and large quantities of election materials to 774 local government areas, 8,809 electoral wards and 176,846 polling units across the country.</p>
<p>The increased participation of young Nigerians is noticeable. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/71-million-young-nigerians-have-registered-to-vote-in-next-month-s-election">Seventy-one million young Nigerians</a> registered to vote in the elections, out of the total of 93.5 million registered voters. Young here means those who are under 50 years. Nearly 40% of those who registered are under 35 <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/575140-2023-polls-youth-population-tops-age-distribution-chart-as-inec-presents-list-of-93-4-registered-voters.html">while over 33 million</a> and 35.75% are between the ages of 35 and 49. It follows that those between 18 and 49 years could determine these elections if enough of them turn out to vote. </p>
<p>And that is why this tracker might help as young Nigerians are more technologically driven. They should be able to navigate their way through the electoral maze using it. It’s intended to help voters make better and more informed choices. </p>
<p><em>MyCandidate Nigeria is an initiative of Open Cities Lab in collaboration with Orodata Science, Accountability Lab Nigeria and OdipoDev. Orodata Science, based in Lagos, is leading the project. Their mission is to establish a data-literate world. Open Cities Lab is a non-profit organisation that creates tools to improve trust and accountability in the civic space. And Odipodev is a market research and data journalism lab based in Kenya.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hakeem Onapajo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A digital tool to help citizens know the candidates better has been developed for Nigeria’s 2023 elections.Hakeem Onapajo, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Nile University of NigeriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1997232023-02-17T14:48:51Z2023-02-17T14:48:51ZDo we need political parties? In theory, they’re the sort of organization that could bring Americans together in larger purpose<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510700/original/file-20230216-26-x493yz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5973%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">During President Joe Biden's State of the Union speech, many Congressional Democrats stood and clapped, but the GOP did not.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/StateoftheUnion/25a1f757fb5c4ebbac967772a8e2aea1/photo?Query=state%20of%20the%20union&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=10744&currentItemNo=84">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 27 million people who watched President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/heres-how-many-watched-bidens-state-union-major-tv-networks-2023-02-08/">on Feb. 7, 2023</a>, witnessed <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/08/1155495296/the-state-of-the-union-and-a-house-narrowly-divided">the spectacle of a family divided</a>, with boos and cheers perfectly arranged along party lines. </p>
<p>Are political parties <a href="https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/party-competition-linked-to-public-investment-503262/">getting in the way of the nation’s well-being</a>? For the approximately 40% of those polled in January 2023 by the Gallup Organization <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx">who say they are neither Democrats nor Republicans, but independent</a>, as well as any viewers of the State of the Union speech, the answer is likely “yes.”</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An antique portrait of a partly bald man wearing a dark coat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1033&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1033&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510705/original/file-20230216-24-1tdw7u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1033&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benjamin Franklin wrote that, in public affairs, very few ‘act with a View to the Good of Mankind.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://loc.getarchive.net/download-image?src=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn4.picryl.com%2Fphoto%2F1900%2F01%2F01%2Fbenjamin-franklin-head-and-shoulders-portrait-d2c2d2-1600.jpg&name=benjamin-franklin-head-and-shoulders-portrait-d2c2d2&ext=.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a historian who has spent years studying <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12786/first-among-men">America’s early political leaders</a>, I can say with confidence that today’s Americans are not the first to fret over the potential harm that parties can inflict. And yet, facts indicate that it wouldn’t be wise <a href="https://knowablemagazine.org/article/society/2021/role-of-political-parties-democracy">to turn away from traditional political organizations</a>.</p>
<h2>‘The greatest political evil’</h2>
<p>Distrust of parties has a long history. </p>
<p>“The great Affairs of the World, the Wars, Revolutions,” a young Benjamin Franklin wrote, “are <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/?q=%22the%20Wars%2C%20Revolutions%2C%20%26c.%20are%20carried%20on%20and%20effected%20by%20Parties%22&s=1111311111&sa=&r=1&sr=">carried on and effected by Parties</a>.” In 1731, when Franklin wrote that sentence, the American nation hadn’t even been born and the young printer was styling himself as a proud member of an expanding British empire.</p>
<p>But he feared that parties’ particular agendas would eventually thwart the general interest. In public affairs, Franklin sadly concluded, very few “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/?q=%22the%20Wars%2C%20Revolutions%2C%20%26c.%20are%20carried%20on%20and%20effected%20by%20Parties%22&s=1111311111&sa=&r=1&sr=">act with a View to the Good of Mankind</a>.”</p>
<p>During the 18th century, the term “party” simply meant “faction.” It automatically conjured the specter of inner division, fragmentation and social chaos.</p>
<p>In his 1796 Farewell Address, President George Washington, for example, warned against “the baneful effects of <a href="http://www.liberty1.org/farewell.htm">the spirit of party generally</a>.” Parties, for him, were like a “fire.” While a fire can be useful, when unquenched it will burst “into a flame, lest, instead of warming, it should consume.” Finding ways to moderate “the fury of party spirit” was for Washington pivotal to the survival of the entire nation.</p>
<p>In 1780, the Articles of Confederation, the feeble <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/articles-of-confederation">first American constitution</a>, was about to be enforced. John Adams had already made a strong case against the excesses of parties.</p>
<p>“There is nothing I dread so much, as a division of the Republick into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension is to be dreaded as <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/?q=%22dreaded%20as%20the%20greatest%20political%20evil%20under%20our%20Constitution%22&s=1111311111&sa=&r=1&sr=">the greatest political evil</a>,” he wrote.</p>
<p>Adams, apparently, was an oracle of sorts.</p>
<h2>‘Mischiefs of faction’</h2>
<p>Americans have always had the sense that parties, by and large, can grow to be a tumor on society.</p>
<p>In order to convince the states to switch to a proper constitution, Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay authored the <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1404/1404-h/1404-h.htm">Federalist Papers</a>, to date one of the most influential collections of essays in political theory.</p>
<p>They gave their full attention to parties. The Constitution, they argued, should be ratified precisely to curtail the “<a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp">mischiefs of faction</a>,” as Madison said in Federalist #10. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray-haired man in a frilly blouse and brown jacket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=705&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=705&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=705&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510708/original/file-20230216-16-2flslp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">John Adams wrote, ‘There is nothing I dread so much, as a division of the Republick into two great parties.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://npg.si.edu/object/npg_NPG.75.52">Painting by John Trumbull from National Portrait Gallery.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>And in Federalist #15, Hamilton stressed the same argument: The Constitution would be the best answer to the spirit of faction, “which is <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed15.asp">apt to mingle its poison</a> in the deliberations of all bodies of men.”</p>
<p>But poisons, as it happens, can be remedies as well. The authors of the Federalist Papers never suggested that Americans should get rid of parties entirely.</p>
<p>While parties often are local groups attempting to advance their narrow agendas, Madison, Hamilton and Jay insisted that those forces could be harnessed to promote the common interest.</p>
<p>Their recipe was to enlarge the nation. In a big nation, they claimed, many competing interests would naturally appear, and it would be much harder for any given “factious leader” to rise to power. </p>
<p>Any group, or lobby, would have to build on general principles and shared values, not on a narrow agenda. Any faction would thus morph into a political party in a positive sense.</p>
<p>Let the nation expand: “The influence of factious leaders,” Madison wrote in Federalist #10, “may kindle a flame within their particular States, but will be unable to spread a general conflagration <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp">through the other States</a>.”</p>
<h2>Democracy ‘unthinkable’ without parties</h2>
<p>Modern political science acknowledges <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.243">the value of political parties</a>. Some scholars have also said that parties are the “makers” of democratic governments: “Modern democracy is <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/504857">unthinkable save in terms of the parties</a>,” wrote American political scientist Elmer Schattschneider in 1942. Not everyone agrees on this, of course, but parties today can be a bulwark against the pettiness of <a href="http://books.imprint.co.uk/book/?gcoi=71157100106600">identity politics and tribalism</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, parties can still provide culture. As the authors of the Federalist Papers assumed, they can be a good substitute for family, clan, club, team. And just like a team or a family, they can move people’s hearts, not just their brains.</p>
<p>In Federalist #17, again, Hamilton recognized the issue. </p>
<p>“It is a known fact in human nature, that its affections are commonly weak in proportion to the <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed17.asp">distance or diffusiveness of the object</a>.” A person, Hamilton explained, “is more attached to his family than to his neighborhood, to his neighborhood than to the community at large.”</p>
<p>Parties can be the solution to this very problem. They can be the cement of society. People wave their party flags, or sip their coffee in their party mug, because they are passionate. But the passion that their party elicits can overlap with the general interests of the nation, or the world.</p>
<p>Parties can be at once the source of personal identity and the wings that take citizens to the sky. </p>
<p>Parties have repeatedly let people down. They have stifled the “cords of affection” while fomenting division – and they keep doing this. But they can also act to promote the common interest. </p>
<p>Nothing is decided yet. As Madison stated in Federalist #14, “Hearken not to the unnatural voice which tells you that the people of America, knit together as they are by so many cords of affection, can <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed14.asp">no longer live together as members of the same family</a>.”</p>
<p>They still can. And political parties can help them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maurizio Valsania does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Americans are not the first to fret over the potential harm that parties can inflict. But parties can also promote the common interest.Maurizio Valsania, Professor of American History, Università di TorinoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998322023-02-16T13:12:04Z2023-02-16T13:12:04ZTanzania is ruled with impunity – four key issues behind calls for constitutional reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510162/original/file-20230214-20-egw7ke.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tanzanian opposition politician Freeman Mbowe (left) flashes a victory sign at a public rally in January 2023.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Jamson/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tanzania’s president issued a <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/01/tanzania-president-hassan-lifts-the-blanket-ban-on-political-assemblies/">statement</a> in June 2016 announcing a ban on political rallies outside campaign periods. The ban was unconstitutional. </p>
<p><a href="https://rsf.org/sites/default/files/constitution.pdf#page=17">Article 20 (1)</a> of the constitution of Tanzania allows for public assembly. Other laws, such as the <a href="https://media.tanzlii.org/files/legislation/akn-tz-act-1992-5-eng-2019-11-30.pdf">Political Parties Act</a> and the <a href="https://www.tanzanialaws.com/principal-legislation/parliamentary-immunities-powers-and-privileges-act">Parliamentary Immunities, Powers and Privilege Act</a>, give political parties and politicians the right to conduct rallies. </p>
<p>Despite these laws, it took another <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/09/tanzania-ends-ban-political-rallies">presidential statement</a> in January 2023 to unban rallies. This illustrates the power of the president – even over the constitution. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tanzania-opposition-rallies-are-finally-unbanned-but-this-doesnt-mean-democratic-reform-is-coming-198436">Tanzania: opposition rallies are finally unbanned – but this doesn't mean democratic reform is coming</a>
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<p>Opposition parties and activists have noted that this great presidential power is a constitutional loophole. The Tanzanian constitution has proved to be weak in protecting itself. </p>
<p>A constitution can protect itself if it has clear checks and balances. With <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/interview-tundu-lissu-discusses-need-constitutional-reform-tanzania">imperial presidential powers</a>, the constitution gives the executive branch of government the upper hand over the two other branches of government: the judiciary and legislature. </p>
<p>Such powers – and their abuse – have led opposition parties and activists to <a href="https://theconversation.com/tanzania-must-face-up-to-calls-for-reform-if-it-wants-to-keep-the-peace-172967">call</a> for constitutional reviews. </p>
<p>There are four reasons driving the agitation for constitutional change in Tanzania: unfree and unfair elections; unchecked presidential powers; political impunity; and the skewed political arrangement between Tanzania and Zanzibar.</p>
<h2>Entrenching dominance</h2>
<p>Recent calls for constitutional change in Tanzania <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/109246/tanzania-whats-really-behind-ccms-refusal-to-change-the-constitution/">began in 2010</a>. A constitutional review commission was set up in 2012, headed by former prime minister <a href="https://www.taas-online.or.tz/members/view/hon-joseph-sinde-warioba">Joseph Warioba</a>. The commission drafted a report, and a constitutional review assembly was set up to debate it. </p>
<p>The review assembly was dominated by members of the ruling party, Chama cha Mapinduzi. They altered the Warioba report and proposed a draft constitution similar to the existing one. A coalition of opposition parties boycotted the process and it stalled. </p>
<p>Maintaining the same constitution has been the ruling party’s strategy. The current constitution facilitates <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-news/opinion/2022/2022-07/tanzanias-undemocratic-constitution-is-a-template-for-disaster.html">one-party dominance</a> by entrenching the party’s and president’s power. </p>
<p>Further review was stopped by president <a href="https://theconversation.com/tanzanias-john-magufuli-a-brilliant-start-but-an-ignominious-end-157092">John Pombe Magufuli</a>, who came into power in 2015. Magufuli rejected any calls for constitutional reforms – and acted in a way that disregarded the existing law.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tanzanias-john-magufuli-a-brilliant-start-but-an-ignominious-end-157092">Tanzania’s John Magufuli: a brilliant start but an ignominious end</a>
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<h2>Chasing change</h2>
<p>The four triggers for constitutional reform in Tanzania are related.</p>
<p><strong>1. Repeated unfree and unfair elections</strong> </p>
<p>In Tanzania, unfree and unfair elections began after the constitution was amended <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/tan5.htm">in 1992</a> to allow for multi-party elections. Since then, there have been six general elections. Each has been marred by accusations of an <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/jpola5&div=36&id=&page=">unlevel playing field</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/oct/29/tanzania-announces-election-winner-amid-claims-of-vote-rigging">rigging</a> and violence. The <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/11/1077292">2020 general election</a> was especially violent. </p>
<p>Constitutional reform is crucial to realise free and fair elections. This is because the composition of the electoral commission as provided for by the constitution is bound to be biased. The president, who is often the incumbent candidate and the chairperson of the ruling party, is responsible for appointing the executive director and commissioners of the commission. All election returning officers at the constituency level are also presidential appointees. </p>
<p>The consequence is that electoral officials are likely to be loyal to their appointing authority rather than to the ideals of free and fair elections. </p>
<p>Additionally, once the presidential vote has been announced, the constitution <a href="https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/news/1840340-5593992-b0yrsv/index.html">doesn’t allow for it to be challenged in court</a>. </p>
<p><strong>2. Unchecked presidential powers</strong> </p>
<p>Under the current constitution, the president of Tanzania has enormous power. He or she appoints senior officials in other branches of government and all heads of public institutions. This includes the chief justice, all other judges and the inspector general of police. The president also appoints the controller audit general, who audits government accounts. </p>
<p>Through loyalty, these appointees are likely to enforce the president’s statements even if they are unconstitutional. </p>
<p>Further, the president cannot be prosecuted as per <a href="https://rsf.org/sites/default/files/constitution.pdf#page=29">Article 46</a> of the constitution. The president is protected during and after their tenure in office. Such provisions promote impunity. </p>
<p><strong>3. Impunity</strong> </p>
<p>Impunity in Tanzania plays out where one group of people can do what they like politically, while another group – in particular opposition politicians – faces excessive exposure to an unjust system. </p>
<p>Trumped up charges against opposition leaders, activists and business people deemed critical of the president are popular tools for keeping critics silent. Such charges, facilitated by undemocratic laws, were used during Magufuli’s regime. Magufuli <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/17/tanzanian-president-john-magufuli-is-dead-vp">died in March 2021</a> and was succeeded by Samia Suluhu Hassan.</p>
<p>In the early days of Hassan’s administration, in July 2021, Freeman Mbowe, the leader of the opposition party Chadema, was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/31/tanzania-opposition-leader-freeman-mbowe-appears-in-court-to-face-charges">arrested and charged</a> with terrorism offences. Due to political pressure – and a failure to find evidence – the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60616800">charges were dropped</a>. Mbowe spent eight months in jail.</p>
<p>After his release in March 2022, Hassan <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tanzania-frees-detained-opposition-leader-mbowe-drops-charges-citizen-newspaper-2022-03-04/">expressed her determination</a> to boost the country’s democracy. She has also expressed her resentment of the unjust political system and <a href="https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/massive-fraud-at-the-dpp-s-office-as-plea-bargain-money-stashed-away-in-china-4106530">called out corruption</a> at the office of public prosecutions. </p>
<p>But presidential sentiments like these are not adequate as they don’t lead to institutional changes in political structures or norms. </p>
<p><strong>4. The Tanzania-Zanzibar agreement</strong> </p>
<p>This is arguably the most contentious trigger for calls for constitutional reform. </p>
<p>The political relationship between the island of Zanzibar and the mainland, Tanzania, has raised calls for Zanzibari autonomy. The government of the United Republic of Tanzania deals with union matters, as well as all mainland issues. The Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar deals with the matters of Zanzibar only. </p>
<p>Opposition leaders have argued that the constitution and this current structure increase the ruling party’s influence in Zanzibari politics. Constitutional debate on this issue is often around <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45342101">four proposed structures</a>: one joint government, two governments, three governments (with the union being the <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/zanzibar-mourns-the-advocate-of-three-tier-system-of-government--1354218">third tier</a>), or a confederation with a central authority. </p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>The underlying call for constitutional reform seeks to uproot the one-party state system to allow for accountability and democratic progress in Tanzania. Under the current constitution, any pronouncements of change are cosmetic, with no sustainable effects. </p>
<p>For Tanzania to realise real and sustainable democracy, a new constitution is necessary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aikande Clement Kwayu has previous received funding from various academic and research institutions. She has volunteered at CHADEMA. </span></em></p>Tanzania’s six-year ban on political rallies shows how the president’s power can override the constitution.Aikande Clement Kwayu, Independent researcher & Lecturer, Tumaini University MakumiraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925202023-01-24T13:05:54Z2023-01-24T13:05:54ZGhana’s Nkrumahist parties keep splitting - a threat to their strength in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506301/original/file-20230125-16-ace5r6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kwame Nkrumah's political legacy is struggling to stay afloat in Ghana.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political parties are not always completely united, as most classical political scientists argue. Dissenting opinions and the scramble for party apparatus tend to trigger internal schisms and factions. If these aren’t managed well, parties can split. A notable example is the recent emergence of splinter parties from the <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/new-political-parties-and-the-reconfiguration-of-turkeys-political-landscape">Justice and Development Party</a> in Turkey.</p>
<p>In Ghana, all three of the country’s main political traditions have experienced internal conflicts and sometimes party splits. The <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/features/The-Danquah-Dombo-Busia-Tradition-179601">Danquah-Busia-Dombo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-small-political-parties-have-found-a-way-to-stay-afloat-124810">Nkrumahist</a> and <a href="https://asq.africa.ufl.edu/tag/provisional-national-defense-council-pndc/">Provisional National Defence Council/Rawlings traditions</a> differ in terms of ideology. The Provisional National Defence Council/Rawlings tradition subscribes to social democracy while the Danquah-Busiasts hold property-owning democratic ideals. The Nkrumahist group is known for socialist beliefs grounded in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44484206#metadata_info_tab_contents">Nkrumahism</a> – the philosophy of Ghana’s first president, Kwame Nkrumah. This tradition focuses on self-reliance and pan-Africanism, and abhors neocolonialism. </p>
<p>The broad traditions have endured since the 1940s, but the parties within them are susceptible to conflicts. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2022.2127870">research</a> explored the possible reasons for factions and schisms in the Nkrumahist parties. I focused on the <a href="https://asq.africa.ufl.edu/tag/provisional-national-defense-council-pndc/">Convention People’s Party</a> and the <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/republic/pnc.php">People’s National Convention</a> and interviewed present and past party technocrats, academics and media practitioners. I also reviewed the literature on intra-party conflict, factionalism and fragmentation in Ghana.</p>
<p>The breaking up of parties affects their electoral fortunes. Political party fragmentation often culminates in elite disarray and cynicism among voters.</p>
<h2>Party schisms in Ghana</h2>
<p>The first account of intra-party squabbles and splintering in Ghana occurred in 1949. This was when Nkrumah and some members of the United Gold Coast Convention youth wing <a href="https://www.cegastacademy.com/2020/11/18/6-reasons-why-nkrumah-broke-away-from-the-ugcc/">rebelled</a> to form the Convention Peoples Party. It marked the birth of the Nkrumahist tradition in Ghana. </p>
<p>The tradition has had the most splinter parties in Ghana over the years. The People’s National Convention, National Independence Party, Peoples’ Heritage Party and National Convention Party emerged in 1992. The Progressive People’s Party was formed in 2012 and the All People’s Congress in 2016. </p>
<p>The Danquah-Busia tradition has also experienced some splits. The most devastating one <a href="https://d-nb.info/1201276179/34">occurred ahead of the 1979 elections</a>. The tradition, which had just recovered from a coup in 1972, divided into two feuding groups and ultimately two parties emerged: the Popular Front Party and the United National Convention. </p>
<p>Disagreements within the Provisional National Defence Council/Rawlings-inspired National Democratic Congress resulted in splinter parties like the National Reform Party in 1992, Democratic Freedom Party in 2006 and National Democratic Party in 2012.</p>
<p>Despite the divisive tendencies within the National Democratic Party and the New Patriotic Party, they have managed the problems in order to sustain their dominance of Ghanaian politics. However, the Convention Peoples Party and the People’s National Convention have failed to manage theirs.</p>
<h2>Diagnosis of the problem</h2>
<p>I found three major factors that help explain the instability within the Nkrumahist tradition. </p>
<p>First, there is evidence of a personality cult, especially among the “old guard”. These are individuals who have been described as gatekeepers and have personalised the party apparatus. <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/671143/why-i-resigned-from-cpp-dr-abu-sakara.html">Foster Abu Sakara</a>, the 2012 presidential candidate of Convention Peoples Party, cited this as a reason for his resignation from the party in 2016. </p>
<p>Second, political opportunism and patronage by some leading party members worsens the schisms. For instance, political personalities like Edward Nasigiri Mahama and Bernard Mornah of the People’s National Convention have benefited through <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/politics/ghana-news-appointment-of-ambassador-at-large-killing-pnc-mornah.html">political appointments</a> from two major parties in Ghana. <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/200601180216.html">Kwabena Duffour </a>and <a href="https://ghanaguardian.com/freddie-blay-renounces-cpp-says-he-is-the-joseph-of-npp">Freddie Blay</a> of the Convention Peoples Party have defected to the National Democratic Party and the New Patriotic Party respectively. The 2012 presidential candidate of the People’s National Convention, Hassan Ayariga, is believed to have defected to <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/politics/hassan-ayariga-forms-all-people-s-congress.html">form</a> the All People’s Congress because he was <a href="https://www.peacefmonline.com/pages/politics/politics/201211/147231.php">accused</a> of having close relations with the National Democratic Congress.</p>
<p>Finally, I found that ethnocentrism has stalled unity talks between the People’s National Convention and the Convention Peoples Party in the past. <a href="https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199766567/obo-9780199766567-0045.xml">Ethnocentrism</a> is when an individual views the world from the perspective of his or her own ethnic group.
In that regard, the People’s National Convention was viewed as a party with restrictive membership to the northern regions of Ghana without any strong appeal to other parts of Ghana. Hence, in coalitions, the Convention Peoples Party has projected itself as true Nkrumahists, labelling the People’s National Convention as just an offshoot, as a strategy to lead the coalition.</p>
<h2>Ghana’s 2024 general elections</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/975755/are-ghanaians-really-tired-of-npp-and-ndc-are.html">Public debates</a> ahead of the 2020 general elections – and currently – suggest that voters are somewhat tired of the three-decade two-horse race between the National Democratic Congress and the New Patriotic Party. With barely two years to Ghana’s 2024 general elections, <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/features/The-third-force-needed-to-win-the-2024-election-has-been-divided-1518095">the call for a third force</a> is audible. But its feasibility keeps waning. The recurrent bickering and fragmentation within the Nkrumahist parties raises doubts as to whether they can rise to the call by Ghana’s electorate. </p>
<p>I recommend that leaders of all Nkrumahist groups reconsider merger talks so as to form a united front. Second, leaders should focus on building effective and robust structures, rather than political patronage. Finally, Nkrumahists must adopt pragmatic political strategies to appeal to all sections of Ghana’s electorate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Baffour Agyeman Prempeh Boakye does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The recurrent bickering and fragmentation within the Nkrumahist parties raises doubt as to whether they can rise to the call by Ghanaian electorate.Baffour Agyeman Prempeh Boakye, PhD Student, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1932872022-11-01T12:46:45Z2022-11-01T12:46:45ZVigilantes at the polls were a threat in the 19th century, too, but the laws put in place then may not work in 2022<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492153/original/file-20221027-29020-ancqnm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C16%2C5318%2C2739&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">State laws dictate how far away campaign signs and workers need to be from polling places. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EarlyVotingTexas/6034de4ab1b942b894293cd339a07ac2/photo?Query=campaign%20worker%20polling%20place&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=33&currentItemNo=10">AP Photo/Eric Gay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Author <a href="https://www.poemuseum.org/who-was-edgar-allan-poe">Edgar Allan Poe</a>, the 19th-century master of American macabre fiction, may have died of dirty politics. According to legend, a gang of party “poll hustlers” kidnapped and drugged him. They forced him to vote, then <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/mlr/vol26/iss3/3/">abandoned him near death</a>. Details are murky, but we do know Poe died in Baltimore days after the Oct. 3, 1849, election.</p>
<p>The story, though likely untrue, is certainly plausible. Election Day in 19th-century America was a loud, raucous, often dangerous event. Political parties would offer food, drink and inducements ranging from offers of bribes to threats of beatings to encourage voters to cast the party’s official ballot.</p>
<p>Reforms at the end of the century – particularly after an <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-vote-that-failed-159427766/">especially dirty 1888 presidential election</a> – aimed to stop the shenanigans, assure the safety of voters and elevate the act of voting. </p>
<p>That is why the U.S. now has secret government-printed ballots rather than party-provided ballots. And all 50 states have laws <a href="https://www.nass.org/resources/2018-election-information/electioneering-boundaries">that ban potentially intimidating behavior</a> at polling places. </p>
<p>Yet there appears to be increasing risk of such voter intimidation. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/pro-trump-republicans-court-election-volunteers-challenge-any-vote/">The Washington Post reports</a> that the Republican Party has held “thousands of training sessions around the country on how to monitor voting and lodge complaints about … midterm elections.” Former President Donald Trump’s ally and conservative firebrand <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/pro-trump-republicans-court-election-volunteers-challenge-any-vote/">Steve Bannon has urged followers to head to the polls</a>, claiming “We’ll challenge any vote, any ballot.” And <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/26/cities-midterms-elections-interference-militias-mayors-police-poll-extremists?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">Axios reports that</a> “Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers are looking to sway the upcoming midterms in favor of their preferred candidates by signing up as poll workers and drop-box watchers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men fighting at the polls in 1857" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elections in the 19th century were sometimes wild affairs; this cartoon is from 1857.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/cph.3c18012/">Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vestigial laws?</h2>
<p>The idea behind these anti-electioneering laws is to prevent the kind of "poll hustling” to which Poe may have fallen victim. </p>
<p>Party tough guys cannot follow – or drag – helpless voters into the polling place, or watch them to make sure they vote the correct ballot with the implicit threat that a “wrong” vote could result in a beating. </p>
<p>These laws generally prohibit campaign activities at or near polling places – wearing campaign paraphernalia, shouting slogans, even loitering inside those polling places. Distance requirements for campaigners, ranging from <a href="https://www.pa.gov/guides/voting-and-elections/">10 feet from a polling place in Pennsylvania</a> to <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Vote/Pages/default.aspx">600 feet away in Louisiana</a>, help to assure that secret ballots are actually cast in secret.</p>
<p>But these vestigial laws meant to purify 19th-century elections may be ill equipped for our hyperpartisan modern elections </p>
<p>If voters come to the polls wearing symbols like the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-shifting-symbolism-of-the-gadsden-flag">Gadsden “Don’t Tread on Me” flag</a> that has evolved into an anti-government symbol, a <a href="https://www.history.com/news/how-did-the-rainbow-flag-become-an-lgbt-symbol">rainbow pin</a> associated with gay pride, or even a <a href="https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2020/02/26/spicing-up-the-political-discourse/">sticker from a spice company</a> whose owner detests Trump, those symbols can take on a perceived political meaning. Under these laws, these people could be accused of illegally campaigning where people vote.</p>
<p>How can anti-electioneering laws keep politics out of the polling place when politics already suffuses so much of life? And in 2022, polling places for many may be the kitchen table or a ballot drop box. In that context, do these laws still have relevance?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gloved hand inserts papers into the slot of a black and yellow box labeled Ballot Box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An election worker puts mail-in ballots collected from vehicles in a ballot box at the Clark County Election Department on Oct. 13 in North Las Vegas, Nev.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/clark-county-election-department-worker-kelley-george-puts-news-photo/1280091056?adppopup=true">Ethan Miller/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Purifying’ elections</h2>
<p>Political reformers in the late 1880s <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-vote-that-failed-159427766/">saw elections as too closely tied to party machines and their Election Day carousing</a>. Much of the reform around this time was focused on “cleaning up” politics and destroying the nefarious influence of party machines. </p>
<p>In fact, the current popular understanding of party machines as being universally corrupt and lowbrow might be because “good government” activists won, so <a href="https://www-jstor-org.pitt.idm.oclc.org/stable/2151546?seq=5#metadata_info_tab_contents">they got to write the history</a> </p>
<p>Yet now, these reforms meant to purify 19th-century elections may not have the effect the authors intended. </p>
<p>For example, a New Hampshire woman <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/politics/decision-2020/nh-woman-votes-topless-over-anti-trump-shirt-dispute-report/2192282/">opted to vote topless</a> in that state’s September 2020 primary after election officials told her that her anti-Trump T-shirt ran afoul of New Hampshire laws forbidding campaigning within a polling place. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/electioneering.aspx">10 states</a> currently have laws on the books regulating the kinds of clothing voters can wear to the polling place.</p>
<p>These laws may violate the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment prohibition on limits to free speech, but not all have been tested in court. In the 2018 opinion <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky/">Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky</a>, the Supreme Court ruled that the state’s laws to create an “orderly and controlled environment” around the polling place were overly vague. </p>
<p>According to the Minnesota opinion, “a rule whose fair enforcement requires an election judge to maintain a mental index of the platforms and positions of every candidate and party on the ballot is not reasonable.”</p>
<p>Poll workers, then, do not need to keep abreast of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/business/fred-perry-proud-boys-intl-scli-gbr/index.html">what a black-and-yellow polo shirt means</a> or which spice company has engaged in political advocacy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of legal language in a section of California law regulating electioneering." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Buttons, hats, pencils, pens, shirts, signs, or stickers containing electioneering information’ are forbidden by California law within 100 feet of a polling place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=ELEC&sectionNum=319.5.">California Legislature</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Bad things happen in Philadelphia’</h2>
<p>Even so, teasing out what constitutes a “political message” seems easy compared with teasing out what constitutes a “polling place” when so many voters will cast their ballots before Election Day.</p>
<p>In the Sept. 29, 2020, presidential debate, Trump warned that <a href="https://www.phillyvoice.com/president-donald-trump-bad-things-happen-philadelphia-presidential-debate/">“bad things happen in Philadelphia</a>.” Earlier that week, a paid Republican poll watcher in Philadelphia was denied entry into a building that was not a formal polling place. Instead, it was handling, among other things, voter registration and pickup and drop-off of mail-in ballots. The Trump campaign sued, but the state court <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/decision-2020/judge-rejects-trumps-suit-over-philly-satellite-elections-offices/2559325/">rejected the campaign’s argument</a>, explaining that watchers are allowed only at polling places on Election Day, not Board of Elections offices at other times. </p>
<p>If anything, though, concerns about voter intimidation are greater in 2022, largely because of reactions to baseless claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election. <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/voting-rights/article/How-Texas-hardest-fought-voting-law-impacts-2022-17522652.php">Efforts in Texas</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-gop-overhauled-the-states-election-laws-in-2021-and-critics-argue-the-target-was-black-voter-turnout-not-election-fraud-192000">other states</a> to “clean up” purported voter fraud, some in response to the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/07/texas-ken-paxton-2000-mules-sid-miller/">debunked film “2000 Mules,”</a> may end up suppressing the vote in 2022.</p>
<p>Indeed, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-two-five-us-voters-worry-about-intimidation-polls-reutersipsos-2022-10-26/">Reuters/Ipsos poll recently found</a> that 40% of respondents are worried about threats of violence or voter intimidation at polling places in 2022.</p>
<p>The unfounded claims of election fraud have spurred <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/voting-rights-tracker.html">changes to election laws in many states</a>. For example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-gop-overhauled-the-states-election-laws-in-2021-and-critics-argue-the-target-was-black-voter-turnout-not-election-fraud-192000">Georgia’s new election law enables organized groups to challenge the eligibility</a> of an unlimited number of voters, meaning that some early voters have turned up to vote, only to find they <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/22/georgia-early-voting-obstacles-new-election-law">need to jump through more hoops</a> to cast their ballots.</p>
<p>And in other cases, conspiracy theorists are taking matters into their own hands: Some voters in Arizona are reporting that monitors, including armed vigilantes in one case, are patrolling ballot drop boxes, <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/10/26/monitors-at-arizona-ballot-drop-boxes-draw-complaints-of-voter-intimidation">possibly running afoul of federal voter intimidation laws</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1583976792062185472"}"></div></p>
<h2>How clean is too clean?</h2>
<p>In her 2004 book “<a href="https://www.oupress.com/books/9779895/diminished-democracy">Diminished Democracy</a>,” political scientist <a href="https://sociology.fas.harvard.edu/people/theda-skocpol">Theda Skocpol</a> describes 19th-century reformers as working “for measures that would emphasize an unemotional, educational style of politics.” </p>
<p>Demanding the protection of the purity of the polling place and politics, Skocpol argues, “treats politics as if it were something dirty and implicitly holds up the ideal of an educated elite safely above and outside of politics.” </p>
<p>Certainly, few Americans would advocate allowing the country’s literary greats – or anyone else – to fall prey to roving political gangs. But determining how to protect the integrity of elections is difficult when elections are everywhere. </p>
<p>And it may not be as easy as relying on rules meant for a different time, a different means of voting and a different electorate.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/19th-century-political-parties-kidnapped-reluctant-voters-and-printed-their-own-ballots-and-thats-why-weve-got-laws-regulating-behavior-at-polling-places-147238">a story that originally was published</a> on Oct. 21, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristin Kanthak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All 50 states have laws that ban potentially intimidating behavior at polling places. They will need enforcement during the 2022 midterm elections.Kristin Kanthak, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881802022-08-25T15:02:06Z2022-08-25T15:02:06Z4 reasons why abortion laws often clash with the majority’s preferences in the US, from constitutional design to low voter turnout<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480876/original/file-20220824-20-1o5vxe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C5691%2C3802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Indiana Senate committee hearing on a GOP proposal to ban nearly all abortions in the state, at the Statehouse in Indianapolis, July 26, 2022.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AbortionIndiana/f05208fb5e3d45ae947b301de993b164/photo?Query=Indiana%20statehouse%20abortion&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=51&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/Michael Conroy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August 2022, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment">Kansas voters opted against</a> overturning a state constitutional right to an abortion. A few days later, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/06/1116132623/indiana-becomes-1st-state-to-approve-abortion-ban-post-roe">Indiana lawmakers banned nearly all abortions</a>. </p>
<p>Both are conservative-leaning states that supported President Donald Trump’s reelection bid by near-identical margins in 2020 - <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-kansas.html">56.1% to 41.5% in Kansas</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-indiana.html">57% to 41% in Indiana</a>. So what explains the different outcomes? </p>
<p>The answer is that in Kansas, voters decided the outcome directly. In Indiana, legislators did so. This distinction matters because for contentious issues like abortion, as well as in other high-profile instances, state legislatures do not always represent public preferences within their states. </p>
<p>We are a multi-university team of social scientists that has been regularly <a href="https://www.covidstates.org">polling</a> Americans in all 50 states since April 2020. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">Dobbs decision</a> overturning the constitutional guarantee of the right to abortion, <a href="https://theconversation.com/kansas-vote-for-abortion-rights-highlights-disconnect-between-majority-opinion-on-abortion-laws-and-restrictive-state-laws-being-passed-after-supreme-court-decision-187138#comment_2851702">our polling found a disconnect</a> between the wave of new state laws restricting abortion access and the preferences of those states’ residents.</p>
<p>This raises the question of why public policy is sometimes inconsistent with what the public wants. </p>
<p>Here are four factors that help explain such disconnects.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A room of people are seen jumping, crying, cheering and raising their arms. Int he front are two young people who appear emotional and happy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480651/original/file-20220823-8377-l5a0in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion rights supporters react to the vote to maintain the right to abortion in Kansas on Aug. 2, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/abortion-supporters-alie-utley-and-joe-moyer-react-to-the-failed-picture-id1242276288?s=2048x2048">Dave Kaup/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Gerrymandering</h2>
<p>Gerrymandering, or the practice of drawing electoral districts in ways that favor one political party over another, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/">contributes to policy outcomes that do not reflect the will of a majority of voters</a>. </p>
<p>In many states, partisan state legislatures often create districts to maximize their party’s dominance in upcoming elections. In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/gerrymandering-examples-north-carolina-illinois-alabama-texas-how-to-fix">North Carolina</a>, despite a 50%-49% presidential vote in 2020, indicating an evenly divided voting public, an electoral map proposed by the Republican-controlled state legislature would, if implemented, result in Republicans likely winning 10 of 13 congressional seats in 2022. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/gerrymandering-examples-north-carolina-illinois-alabama-texas-how-to-fix/">Illinois</a>, Republicans won 41% of the 2020 presidential vote. Yet the proposed electoral map – drawn by Democrats – would, if implemented, likely yield Republicans only 3 of 17 congressional seats in the 2022 election. </p>
<p>Gerrymandering can lead to elections in which one party’s candidate is primed to win, resulting in noncompetitive general elections where the only real contest occurs during the primary election. Since the abortion issue is strongly polarized between the two major political parties, gerrymandering can result in elected officials <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/02/how-gerrymandering-undermines-democracy-us-elections">who do not represent the majority of constituents on this issue</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Low and uneven voter turnout</h2>
<p>Policies enacted by democratically elected governments can fail to reflect the will of the people they represent if people don’t – or can’t – vote. </p>
<p>Turnout in U.S. elections, especially at the state and local levels, and in nonpresidential years, can be abysmal. For instance, turnout in national midterm elections since 2002 <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_elections">has averaged just 42% of eligible voters</a>. </p>
<p>Democratic representation is especially distorted when low turnout is combined with uneven turnout, with certain sociodemographic groups voting in particularly low numbers. In 2020, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/large-racial-turnout-gap-persisted-2020-election">70.9% of white voters turned out to vote in the presidential election, compared with 58.4% of nonwhite voters</a>, while <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-presidential-election-voting-and-registration-tables-now-available.html">76% of eligible adults ages 65 to 74 turned out, compared with 51.4% of those ages 18 to 24</a>. Outcomes in the U.S. democracy – for example, policies and regulations adopted – are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00357.x">skewed toward representing people who vote over those who do not</a>, so policies can become biased against people who don’t turn out. </p>
<p>Numerous factors influence the decision to vote, including whether people feel their voice matters and, to a smaller extent, how easy it is to vote. The U.S. has a long history of restricting access to the ballot box, and in recent decades the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/7/1/22559046/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-brnovich-dnc-samuel-alito-elena-kagan-democracy">Supreme Court has weakened laws protecting voting access</a>. In the post-civil rights era, however, most <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/turnout-gap/1B79B19C880A93C462FD1DF22F65DD15">political scientists</a> have concluded that restrictive election laws are less important than whether individuals think their votes will influence the political process. </p>
<p>So far, there are mixed signals on whether the Dobbs decision will prompt greater turnout. <a href="https://osf.io/2aczd/">Polls have found</a> that the people who care most about abortion after the Dobbs ruling tend to hold pro-choice attitudes. However, <a href="https://www.covidstates.org/reports/the-dobbs-decision-support-for-abortion-and-2022-voting">our research</a> and a recent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/29/abortion-roe-midterms-poll/">Washington Post-Schar School poll</a> find that Americans who are most concerned about abortion are less certain that they will vote in the upcoming midterm elections than their less concerned counterparts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign propped up on a fountain outside that lists the names of the 57 Indiana House members who voted to ban abortion." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480888/original/file-20220824-9506-aaitdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign lists the names of the 57 Indiana House of Representatives members who voted to ban abortion during a special session in June, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-lists-the-names-of-the-57-indiana-house-of-news-photo/1242343395?adppopup=true">Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Design of American political institutions</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp">Founding Fathers feared</a> the “<a href="https://oxfordworldsclassics.com/view/10.1093/owc/9780199670802.001.0001/isbn-9780199670802">tyranny of the majority</a>.” They worried that direct democracy would be unstable, tyrannical and eventually result in violent failure. </p>
<p>In contrast, a large, representative republic bound by the Constitution theoretically creates a system in which interests would counteract one another to prevent any one from dominating the others. The system was intended to elect representatives who were more patriotic, enlightened and committed to the public good than the people at large, and thus to limit the direct representation of the people. </p>
<p>But the Founding Fathers’ design of American political institutions also contributes to the disconnect between the people and public policy.</p>
<p>For instance, Americans do not vote directly for president. <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/">They vote for electors to the Electoral College</a>, who then cast their vote for president. Each state’s delegation of electors is equal to the state’s federal congressional delegation. Because every state automatically has two senators, individuals in states with small populations have outsize influence in presidential elections and in the U.S. Senate.</p>
<p>The Electoral College system sometimes leads to presidential candidates <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/the-electoral-college.html">losing the national popular vote but winning the Electoral College</a>, and thus the presidency. <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/faqs-federal-judges#:%7E:text=federal%20magistrate%20judges%3F-,Who%20appoints%20federal%20judges%3F,as%20stated%20in%20the%20Constitution.">The president then appoints federal judges</a>, who, if confirmed by the U.S. Senate, hold lifetime appointments and rule on the constitutionality of issues of national importance, such as abortion access. </p>
<p>Of the six Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/02/minoritarian-third-supreme-court/">three were appointed by a president</a> who lost the national popular vote, and five were confirmed by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-justices-all-confirmed-by-senators-representing-a-minority-of-voters-appear-willing-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-182582">majority of senators who represented a minority of the U.S. population</a>.</p>
<p>Even in cases where the Electoral College winner aligns with the winner of the national popular vote, both chambers of Congress must pass a bill in order for the bill to be signed into law by the president. Because of Senate rules, enacting most legislation requires <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">a supermajority of senators</a>. </p>
<p>This combination of design and rules means legislative processes are skewed toward inaction, sometimes contrary to the will of the majority of Americans.</p>
<h2>4. Geographic polarization</h2>
<p>The U.S. is politically polarized along geographic lines, particularly among states and across population density. Rural areas tend to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-020-09601-w">support Republicans</a> and are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/">more anti-abortion</a> compared to urban areas. </p>
<p>The primary causes of this geographic polarization are the influence of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/does-residential-sorting-explain-geographic-polarization/1AF7FE72A454DD0EC78BCF890D9118EA">location itself</a>, including local sociocultural differences, as well as preexisting demographic patterns that reflect differences between typical members of the two parties. </p>
<p>So, for instance, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/">urban city centers</a> tend to appeal to relatively young, highly educated and ethnically diverse people who tend to align with the Democratic Party. Residents of rural areas tend to be older, less educated and white, all characteristics typically associated with the Republican Party.</p>
<p>Rural areas and states with smaller populations <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/upshot/as-american-as-apple-pie-the-rural-votes-disproportionate-slice-of-power.html">have more electoral influence at the national level</a>, especially due to features such as the Electoral College and equal numbers of senators per state. In turn, national-level partisan tendencies can affect decisions such as judicial appointments. </p>
<p>In the case of abortion, geographic polarization has contributed to a disconnect between public preferences and government policies by yielding state legislatures whose members are, on average, more strongly anti-abortion than the overall state populations they represent.</p>
<p>The U.S. system of government was forged in the 18th century from a <a href="https://www.history.com/news/how-the-great-compromise-affects-politics-today">compromise</a> between relatively rural and urban states with widely varying population levels. It was designed to insulate the government from popular passions while making policy change difficult, and has inevitably led to public policies that fail to reflect the will of the majority. </p>
<p>Recent trends like those described above have exacerbated these tendencies. Abortion is merely the latest, and among the more contentious, cases in point.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew A Baum has received funding from The National Science Foundation and the Russell Sage Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alauna Safarpour and Kristin Lunz Trujillo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why do government policies sometimes fail to reflect the public will? The answer begins with the design of the US government system, forged in the 18th century.Matthew A Baum, Kalb Professor of Global Communications and Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolAlauna Safarpour, Postdoctoral Fellow, Network Science Institute, Northeastern UniversityKristin Lunz Trujillo, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842312022-06-15T12:27:03Z2022-06-15T12:27:03ZTrump-endorsed candidates would generally win even without his support – and that’s usually the case with all political endorsements<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468548/original/file-20220613-12-6awtrc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C26%2C3551%2C2355&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ohio GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance won his primary after Trump endorsed him. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022Politics/d059c994c426472d8dccde6793fe6db0/photo?Query=(persons.person_featured:(Donald%20AND%20Trump))%20AND%20%20(Trump%20endorsement)%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=217&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Joe Maiorana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few months, many <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/04/1096589956/indiana-ohio-primaries-what-happened-takeaways-vance-trump">journalists and pundits</a> have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/28/trump-may-endorsements-status/">credited</a> the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-endorsement-success-rate-average-performance-vote-percentage-gop-primaries-2022-5">power</a> of Donald Trump’s endorsements with determining the winners of Republican primaries. </p>
<p>Trump has made <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump">238 candidate endorsements</a> in the 2022 election cycle so far, targeting state, congressional, gubernatorial and even <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/ryanjrusak/article256799582.html">local</a> races. </p>
<p>Based on the numbers alone, receiving a “Trump bump” seems like a surefire way to win an election. So far, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump#Regular_endorsements">92% of Trump’s favored candidates</a> have won their Republican primaries.</p>
<hr>
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<hr>
<p>But as a political scientist who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RG_vffMAAAAJ&hl=en">studies</a> voting and public opinion, I have my doubts about the true power of Trump’s endorsements. Instead, it is more likely that most of the candidates Trump has chosen to endorse were already on track to win their respective races. </p>
<p>Political science says that <a href="http://boudreau.ucdavis.edu/uploads/9/2/1/3/92138496/boudreau_oxford_handbook_2018.pdf">endorsements do occasionally matter</a> for determining election outcomes. But in most cases, their effects are far <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915595882">less potent</a> than commentators might expect.</p>
<p>This is because endorsements are not made in a vacuum. Much like the endorsements of interest groups and political parties, the so-called “Trump bump” is mostly a reflection of the attributes a candidate already had before the endorsement.</p>
<h2>Backing the winners</h2>
<p>Candidates’ electoral fortunes mostly stem from <a href="http://boudreau.ucdavis.edu/uploads/9/2/1/3/92138496/boudreau_oxford_handbook_2018.pdf">whether they’re incumbents, which political party they belong to, their ideology and their political savvy</a>. In turn, these attributes also determine <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915595882">who gets endorsed</a> by prominent groups and people. </p>
<p>For this reason, Trump’s endorsements are an excellent lesson in what scholars call “<a href="https://dictionary.apa.org/reverse-causality">reverse causality</a>.” This is what happens when people mistake a phenomenon’s effects for its cause, like thinking that people holding umbrellas have caused it to rain. In this case, reverse causality implies that Trump’s favorite candidates are not more likely to win because of his endorsement. </p>
<p>To be sure, candidate endorsements can act as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00399.x">valuable cues</a> for voters seeking to make informed decisions. Voters might think to themselves, “If this person, whom I trust and like, supports a candidate, then I should trust and like the candidate too.” This is especially true in elections in which little is known about the contenders.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with gray hair wearing a blazer at a campaign rally with signs held behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump endorsed former Sen. David Purdue, seen here, in the 2022 GOP primary for governor in Georgia. But the incumbent, Brian Kemp, won the nomination.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022/7db40e86264a47f1ad561fcc23993e9f/photo?Query=david%20perdue&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1201&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/John Bazemore</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9512-2">Such mental shortcuts</a> allow voters with limited knowledge of the candidates to vote according to their preferences. But in most cases, endorsements do little to persuade voters to shift their support from one candidate to another.</p>
<h2>The real sources of the ‘Trump bump’</h2>
<p>There are at least three other reasons that many of Trump’s favored candidates are finding success in 2022. </p>
<p>First, most of Trump’s endorsed candidates already hold office. This gives them <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/26/here-is-why-incumbents-in-congress-are-hard-to-beat.html">a distinct electoral advantage</a>. Only one of the congressional incumbents whom Trump endorsed lost in the primary. That candidate, Rep. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina, chose to run in a <a href="https://www.themountaineer.com/news/the-real-story-behind-madison-cawthorn-switching-congressional-districts/article_ae55d270-46e3-11ec-94b9-236cb74043ff.html">new congressional district</a>, partially scuttling his incumbency advantage. </p>
<p>The stellar performance of Trump-backed incumbents is unsurprising, because incumbents already have a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Incumbent_win_rates_by_state">nearly 100% chance</a> of winning primaries. The rare primary upset of an incumbent, like the one that elected New York Democratic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/nyregion/joseph-crowley-ocasio-cortez-democratic-primary.html">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> in 2018, normally sends shock waves through the political landscape. </p>
<p>Of course, Trump has also endorsed some challengers. Research shows that challengers <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673x15575753">raise more money</a> if they receive high-profile endorsements. Trump’s endorsement might have had a similar effect. </p>
<p>But longtime incumbents often have even <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.2307/2132148">deeper pockets</a>, making them difficult for challengers to defeat. The record reflects this reality: Of the nine Trump-endorsed challengers who have gone up against incumbents in primaries thus far, only three have managed to win.</p>
<p>Trump endorsements are also likely determined by a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/strategic-politicians-and-the-dynamics-of-us-house-elections-194686/75781C1A742A44F566C84B68EF157075">candidate’s quality</a>, which can be defined as the extent to which a candidate possesses the skills, reputation and resources – including money – to win elections. High-quality candidates normally contest only those elections they <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X07300908">know they can win</a>. Key endorsers like Trump stake their reputation on their support for candidates, meaning they are probably choosy about whom to endorse. This helps to explain why not all <a href="https://www.phillyvoice.com/senate-primary-candidates-pennsylvania-republican-sean-gale-2022/">vocally pro-Trump candidates</a> have received his official blessing.</p>
<p>Finally, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915609437">a candidate’s ideology</a> plays an important role in determining winners, losers and support from endorsers. Trump is likely to endorse conservative candidates who align with his policy preferences – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/04/15/trump-endorsements-no-slam-dunk-so-far/">though not always</a>. Successful conservative candidates run in districts and states with many conservative voters. Trump’s endorsement will merely clarify these voters’ affinity for the candidate, while reaffirming others’ decision to vote for someone else.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people, a man and a woman, voting at booths with a lot of writing on them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many elements influence how a person votes, and an endorsement is not usually decisive. Here, voters in Atlanta, Ga., on primary election day, May 24, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-participate-in-the-georgia-primary-on-election-day-news-photo/1240883289?adppopup=true">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No endorsement, no problem for Republicans in ‘22</h2>
<p>Before assigning Trump the credit for boosting candidates in the upcoming 2022 general election, observers should recognize the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/108118001129172107?journalCode=hija">notorious difficulty</a> of proving causation in the realm of electoral politics. 2022 is primed to be a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/senate-control-midterms-2022/">banner year</a> for Republican candidates, whether they receive a nod from Trump or not.</p>
<p>Midterm election years are almost always <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30023420">tough contests</a> for the party of the incumbent president. Voters associate candidates down the ballot with the president’s performance in office. After an early honeymoon phase, presidential approval often <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/40/1/1/1836685">slumps</a> as midterm elections near, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/determinants-of-the-outcomes-of-midterm-congressional-elections/2D3701D5F63001FAAD7BF14394DCCAB8">damaging</a> the chances of congressional candidates. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111453">volatile economy</a> is also bad news for the party of the incumbent. While presidents’ actions <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706108">might not have much effect</a> on national and global economic conditions, many voters <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/106591290305600303">blame the incumbent party</a> anyway.</p>
<p>These factors combine to heavily favor Republican candidates this year. Trump’s endorsements are far less important for voting behavior than the political and economic context of this year’s elections. </p>
<p>Hopefully, when it comes time to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.2307/2132104">discuss the reasons</a> that some candidates won and others lost, commentators will keep these lessons from voting behavior research in mind.</p>
<p><em>This story has been updated with the latest data on Trump endorsements as of August 30, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Anson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bottom line: Political endorsements are overrated.Ian Anson, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810542022-04-13T00:52:21Z2022-04-13T00:52:21ZWhy party preselections are still a mess, and the courts haven’t helped<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457797/original/file-20220412-14-ipn8z2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Darren England</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You join a political party. Its <a href="https://viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Victorian-Labor-Rules-1-Feburary-2021current-rules.pdf">rules</a> are over 100 pages long. And that’s only for your state division. There’s also an overarching “federal” party <a href="https://cdn.liberal.org.au/pdf/2019%20Liberal%20Party%20of%20Australia%20Federal%20Constitution.pdf">constitution</a>.</p>
<p>Good, you think. Parties run parliament, our lawmakers <em>should</em> be be governed by rules about selecting candidates or expelling party members. But are they? Can you ask the courts to ensure your party’s powerbrokers abide by the rules that they, by and large, write?</p>
<p>It’s a simple question, but the answer to it is a mess, thanks to cases about recent high-profile interventions by national party leaders into Victorian Labor and the NSW Liberals.</p>
<p>What is going on? In part this is an historical tangle within common (in other words, judge-made) caselaw. In part, it is because the major parties have decided to upset 30 years of pragmatic acceptance of the obvious answer: serious rules, of registered parties, should be enforceable.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/preselection-and-parachuting-candidates-3-reasons-parties-override-their-local-branch-members-despite-the-costs-180125">Preselection and parachuting candidates: 3 reasons parties override their local branch members, despite the costs</a>
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<h2>Parties as private social clubs?</h2>
<p>Ninety years ago, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmond_Hogan">Ned Hogan</a> lost his pre-selection to stand for the Labor Party and was expelled from its ranks. Just weeks before, he had been Labor premier of Victoria. This drama – one of several splits that occasionally rend our parties – happened as the nation was divided about Depression-era austerity measures.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457796/original/file-20220412-50132-b4wq0m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In 19, Ned Hogan was expelled from the Labor Party- despite having served as Victorian Labor premier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Portrait Gallery</span></span>
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<p>Hogan fought his peremptory treatment all the way to the High Court. In 1934, it <a href="http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1934/24.html">ruled</a> in favour of the party. Not on the merits, but because it equated parties to any “voluntary association […] formed for social, sporting, political, scientific, religious, artistic or humanitarian” interests. Unless the squabble concerned who owned property, the court would treat it as a private stoush. </p>
<h2>Parties as semi-public bodies</h2>
<p>Thirty years ago, this ruling was side-stepped. It had long been criticised for its unreality. A clear-sighted Queensland judge, John Dowsett, <a href="https://www.queenslandjudgments.com.au/case/id/506066">reasoned</a> that whatever the mores of the 1930s, modern parties were deeply involved in public affairs. In particular, they register with electoral commissions and receive significant <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2019/12-12.htm">public funding</a>.</p>
<p>Since 1992, a variety of Supreme Court judges, across numerous states, reinforced that finding. Party rules formed a contract, biding party members and administrators alike. </p>
<p>This didn’t mean open slather. First, non-members couldn’t insist party rules be enforced. (So parties could easily avert hostile <a href="http://www10.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/sa/SASC/1997/6015.html">takeovers</a>). Second, only clear, usually procedural, rules were enforceable. (So statements of philosophy were treated as puffery). Internal grievance procedures had to be exhausted and members who sued late could be rebuffed.</p>
<p>Finally, the courts just interpreted rules, they didn’t re-write them. Rules might be democratic or hierarchical. With one caveat: they couldn’t completely oust any role for the courts. </p>
<h2>First they came for the union boss…</h2>
<p>In 2019, Anthony Albanese <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-23/john-setka-expelled-from-labor-after-withdrawing-his-legal-bid/11631808">intervened</a> personally to urgently expel construction union leader, John Setka, from Victorian Labor. This was in apparent violation of the state party’s procedures and misconduct triggers.</p>
<p>Setka challenged in court, but Labor <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/if-setka-is-shaming-labor-is-labor-shaming-the-law/">convinced</a> a Victorian judge to revert to 1934, and not hear the matter. Few seemed to lament this judicial washing of hands. After all, Setka has attracted much <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Setka">controversy</a> in his personal, legal and union life.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457792/original/file-20220412-11-6vug2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In 2019, Anthony Albanese moved to have union boss John Setka expelled from the Labor Party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Daniel Pockett</span></span>
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<p>Into 2021-22, the role of the courts became critical. First the national takeover of Victorian Labor was <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guilty-and-innocents-alike-tramped-upon-in-labor-preselections-20211213-p59h0o.html">contested</a>. Then, a similar gambit by Scott Morrison in NSW was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/03/its-disgusting-nsw-liberal-members-irate-over-federal-imposition-of-candidates-in-prize-seats">decried</a> as “carpet-bombing”, by Liberal members both moderate and conservative.</p>
<p>In the last month, appeal courts in Victoria, then <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-05/nsw-liberal-party-pre-selection-court-appeal-dismissed/100966516">NSW</a>, crafted a third way. Courts <em>should</em> hear such disputes, but <em>only if</em> they are closely connected to some electoral law requirement.</p>
<p>This new approach is very fuzzy. The Victorian court <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/vic/VSCA/2022/26.html">said</a> it covered pre-selections, since parties nominate their candidates via the electoral commission. The NSW court <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/nsw/NSWCA/2022/51.html">rejected</a> that finding completely, suggesting that only questions such as who was the party’s agent for electoral registration were necessarily within judicial purview.</p>
<h2>The High Court in a wedge</h2>
<p>In each case, party members then sought leave to appeal to the High Court. In each case, in the past week, the High Court declined to be involved. Understandably, given the imminence of the election. Sometimes the clock runs down on any useful remedies, and complex questions deserve considered reflection.</p>
<p>Also, the merits of the claims were limited. Unsurprisingly, party rules often give wide power to national executives to intervene, take over a branch, and select candidates.</p>
<p>But in Delphic hints last Friday, two High Court judges tantalisingly <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/HCATrans/2022/60.html">implied</a> the very narrow NSW approach was fine.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-court-saves-morrisons-nsw-preselections-but-what-sort-of-campaign-will-liberals-run-180694">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Court saves Morrison's NSW preselections but what sort of campaign will Liberals run?</a>
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<h2>Membership bodies or top-down electoral brands?</h2>
<p>Where do these judicial <a href="https://twitter.com/Graeme_Orr/status/1512576732410544133?s=20&t=zQtAgfbxKqF2b4kTU8_EGw">shenanigans</a> leave us? First, until the High Court finds a suitable case to resolve the confusion, members in most states – but not necessarily the biggest two – may still seek the help of the courts. </p>
<p>Second, parties can run up costs by objecting to court hearings at will. Yet, if a party executive wants the courts involved (to suit their public agenda, or if there’s a fight between sub-factions in which the executive has no interest) it can simply not raise an objection to a hearing.</p>
<p>Finally, the law of parties in Australia is one-sided and <a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-liberal-whats-labor-new-bill-to-give-established-parties-control-of-their-names-is-full-of-holes-166088">underdeveloped</a>. Parties get benefits, from public funding through to control of <a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-liberal-whats-labor-new-bill-to-give-established-parties-control-of-their-names-is-full-of-holes-166088">party names</a> on ballot papers. </p>
<p>Yet they increasingly are constructed as mere <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2354809">electoral brands</a>, disconnected from any social base.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, their dwindling band of active members – who pay up to <a href="https://viclabor.com.au/membership/join/">$225</a> a year for the privilege – have limited say in party affairs. And little reassurance the courts will help them if they feel repressed by administrators ignoring their party’s own rules.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Orr does pro bono and occasionally consultancy work in the law of politics, including electoral law. He is on the NSW Electoral Commission's iVote advisory panel. Last year he was on the Constitutional Advisory Board of the ARM. In the past he has given pro bono advice, on electoral law, to various small parties and independent candidates, regardless of ideology.</span></em></p>Confusing court findings have left the rules in party pre-selections in a mess, and members with little say in who contests individual seats.Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1734322021-12-13T15:21:32Z2021-12-13T15:21:32ZNigeria’s legislature wants political party members to elect leaders directly. But is it constitutional?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436944/original/file-20211210-25-10yh8q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A delegate gets accredited during the last All Progressives Congress presidential primary</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/delegate-gets-accredited-for-the-opposition-all-news-photo/460297948?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Nigeria’s National Assembly has <a href="https://tribuneonlineng.com/electoral-act-nass-adopts-direct-primaries-transmission-of-election-results-electronically/">adopted</a> legislation that allows direct primaries – where all party members and not just delegates will vote in political parties’ primaries to choose candidates for elections. But President Muhammadu Buhari is yet to assent to the <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2021/10/12/breakdown-of-senates-amendments-to-electoral-act/">Electoral Act No. 6, 2010 (Repeal and Re-enactment) Bill 2021</a>. Though the Independent National Electoral Commission has endorsed other aspects of the bill, it <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/499679-exclusive-inec-replies-presidency-endorses-electoral-bill.html">suggested</a> that the president consult with political parties over the controversial direct primaries provision. The Conversation Africa’s Wale Fatade asked public law expert Akinola Akintayo to explain the issues.</em></p>
<p><strong>Are direct primaries consistent with the constitution?</strong></p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/11/sdp-to-national-assembly-dont-lord-direct-primaries-on-political-parties-its-unprogressive-act-agunloye/">politicians</a> have voiced <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/no-party-should-impose-its-processes-on-another-pdp-kicks-against-direct-primaries">their opposition</a>. They are worried because the adoption is a direct fallout of happenings in the ruling All Progressives Congress party over selection of candidates for the 2023 general elections. The ruling party is the majority party in the National Assembly. </p>
<p>There are four grounds on which the National Assembly can directly regulate political parties. You can find them in <a href="https://www.lawhub.com.ng/section-221-229/">Sections 221 to 229</a> of the constitution. These are specific provisions in the constitution that deal with regulation of political parties. </p>
<p>The first ground is the provision that the National Assembly can make laws to provide for the punishment of persons who violate specific provisions of the constitution with respect to the formation and operation of political parties. </p>
<p>This is in relation to those who carry on political party activities without registering or without complying with the provisions of the constitution. It also speaks to receiving or retention by political parties of funding from outside the country. This is prohibited and all funds received from abroad must be turned over to the electoral commission within 21 days of such receipt. </p>
<p>The second ground is the authority of the National Assembly to make laws disqualifying anyone found to have aided or assisted political parties to receive or retain funding from overseas. </p>
<p>The third ground is the authority to make laws providing for annual grants to be disbursed to political parties by the electoral commission. The fourth ground is the authority to confer necessary and incidental powers on the commission to perform its functions. </p>
<p>Those provisions and others do not give the National Assembly the power to regulate the primaries of political parties. The constitution doesn’t allow the National Assembly to force political parties to elect candidates this way. The National Assembly may have reasons for adopting direct primaries, but it is inconsistent with the constitution.</p>
<p><strong>Why do you think the National Assembly wants direct primaries?</strong></p>
<p>It is something we knew might come, considering what happened during the presidential primaries in 2018. Contestants <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/dollar-rains-at-port-harcourt-pdp-presidential-primaries-2018/">allegedly</a> spent millions of dollars to bribe delegates. Any serious legislative body will want to do something about that because it has a trickle down effect on the integrity of the political process and those who emerge as winners. The integrity and sanctity of democracy serve as a barometer of governance in the country. </p>
<p>I think this initiative is a bid to curb the excesses of politicians. That is not to say that the ruling party may not have its own agenda, especially against the background of the <a href="https://thenationonlineng.net/direct-primary-governors-national-assembly-clash/">disagreement</a> between state governors and National Assembly members on how to select candidates for elections. </p>
<p><strong>What could be done to make the political parties more democratic?</strong></p>
<p>The things that brought us here are the very serious poverty level in the country, the desperation of ordinary Nigerians for survival, lack of education, and political lethargy, among others. People don’t care, they just want to feed themselves and do their stuff and have generally given up on governance and politics. We can see this in <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/451955-voter-apathy-nigerian-legislative-election-witnesses-3-turnout.html">low voter turnout</a> in recent elections. But there is a lot we can do. </p>
<p>We need to start empowering the people. I don’t mean the political class but the citizens. So that when it is time for elections, you can reject that small bag of rice and cash regularly doled out to induce voters. That is economic empowerment. </p>
<p>Legally speaking, maybe the National Assembly can empower the electoral commission to properly monitor the internal processes of political parties. They do at present but that mechanism can be strengthened. </p>
<p>But I think it goes beyond the law. People must be empowered economically to be self sufficient and thereby more altruistic. Politicians too must put citizens’ interests ahead of their own in their political dealings. Citizens must be enlightened on the importance of their contributions to the democratic process. </p>
<p>If the president assents to the bill, the innovation becomes law, pending the time it is challenged and overturned or affirmed by the courts as unconstitutional or constitutional. </p>
<p>If the president refuses assent, the innovation is at an end unless the National Assembly overrides the president’s veto by passing the bill again by two-thirds majority of members of both houses of the National Assembly at a joint sitting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173432/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akinola Akintayo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria’s legislators have no constitutional right to force political parties to adopt direct primaries.Akinola Akintayo, Senior Lecturer and Legal Consultant, University of LagosLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1693312021-10-13T14:56:41Z2021-10-13T14:56:41ZAnnamie Paul: Lessons for the Green Party after ‘the worst period in my life’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425935/original/file-20211012-21-1a21zcd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C158%2C2000%2C1170&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Annamie Paul is photographed before announcing she is officially stepping down as Green Party leader, ahead of a press conference at Suydam Park in Toronto in September 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Tijana Martin </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tenure of Annamie Paul as leader of the Green Party of Canada was short. Paul is <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/green-party-leader-annamie-paul-resigns-her-post">resigning as leader of the Green Party</a> less than a year after she took over.</p>
<p>When Elizabeth May <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-green-party-leader-1.5346635">stepped down as leader in November 2019</a> after helming the party for 13 years, she left big shoes to fill. <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/media-release/2019-10-22/green-party-thrilled-historic-wins">In the 2019 federal election</a>, the party doubled its share of the popular vote compared to the previous election and obtained more than a million votes for the first time. Three Green Party members were elected as MPs, also a first. </p>
<p>Yet simmering below the surface were ideological, organizational and management divisions and strife. The different visions for the party showed up in <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/leadership-2020">the platforms of those vying to be the new leader</a>. Indeed, the 2020 Green Party leadership race laid bare these deep ideological divides about how the Green Party should present itself in the future. </p>
<p>Several candidates ran on an eco-socialist platform and argued that capitalism is the root of <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/09/21/frustrated-by-grits-and-ndp-canadian-leftists-turn-to-socialist-green-leadership-candidates/">climate change and inequality</a> whereas others, including Paul, were seen as centrists “<a href="https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/eco-socialist-almost-wins-green-party-leadership-what-does-this-mean">who represented the liberal establishment of the Green Party and a continuation of May’s pro-capitalist environmentalism</a>.”</p>
<p>After eight rounds of voting, Paul won the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/annamie-paul-wins-green-party-leadership-1.5131494">leadership in October 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Failed to win a seat</h2>
<p>It was a bumpy start for Paul. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-annamie-paul-green-party-future-1.5779262">She lost a byelection for the Toronto Centre riding</a> later that month, which meant she wasn’t able to lead the Greens in the House of Commons. By April 2021, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/annamie-paul-green-party-politics-infighting-1.6107725">leaks were starting to pour into the media</a> about internal strife within the party, including allegations the party was ineffective in dealing with issues involving sexism, racism and diversity. </p>
<p>In May and June 2021, the Green Party revisited an issue that had <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/statement/2014-08-01/statement-president-green-party-canada">haunted them before</a>. The <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2021/05/31/middle-east-conflict-divides-canadas-green-party/?doing_wp_cron=1634016905.1333589553833007812500">Israeli-Palestinian conflict blew up the party</a>, spurring MP Jenica Atwin to cross the floor to the Liberals because of Paul’s statement on the escalation of fighting in Gaza. Paul’s response <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/statement/2021-05-10/green-party-statement-violence-israel-and-gaza">to encourage the de-escalation of violence and to support peace in the area</a> was seen to be “<a href="https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/green-party-scores-own-goal-with-defection-of-pro-palestine-mp">totally inadequate</a>” from Atwin and others. </p>
<p>Paul’s senior adviser, Noah Zatzman, also publicly criticized Green MPs and other Green Party members for their <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/07/20/The-Man-Who-Upended-Canadas-Green-Party/">pro-Palestinian stance</a>. Many members were outraged that Paul didn’t publicly discipline Zatzman in some manner.</p>
<p>In June and July 2021, concerns about Paul’s leadership escalated. There was a call to vote on a measure of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-layoffs-1.6085961">non-confidence in Paul’s leadership</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-paul-funding-riding-election-1.6100459">a Federal Council (the governing body for the Green Party) motion to hold back campaign funds for Paul’s campaign in Toronto Centre</a> and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-annamie-paul-1.6101869">move to revoke Paul’s membership in the Green Party.</a></p>
<p>Paul, the first Black and Jewish woman to lead a major federal party, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elizabeth-may-won-t-be-green-interim-leader-says-annamie-paul-hurting-party-1.5608501">has said efforts to push her out were fuelled by racism and sexism</a>. </p>
<p>In a June meeting, Paul said the allegations made against her “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/annamie-paul-emergency-meeting-reaction-1.6068280">were so racist, so sexist, that they were immediately disavowed by … our MPs as offensive and inflammatory</a>.” And she said it was not an isolated incident, alleging the hatred escalated when she became leader. She called <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8148532/canada-election-annamie-paul-profile/">for efforts to stop the targeted attacks.</a></p>
<p>Election night results were a <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/election-2021/election-2021-results-green-party-delivered-setback-at-ballot-box-losing-mp-in-faltering-of-support">stark contrast from 2019</a>. It became clear that Paul would either resign or endure a party non-confidence vote and leadership review. A week later, she stepped down.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Annamie Paul in a cream suit speaks into a microphone at a podium as people behind her applaud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annamie Paul stands at the podium as she concedes defeat in the Toronto Centre riding on election night in Toronto.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Lessons for the Greens</h2>
<p>While the Green Party should have learned many lessons over the past year, there are a few that particularly stand out.</p>
<p>While internal party turmoil happens in all political parties, loyalty to the party and its leader as issues and problems arise must be paramount instead of <a href="https://pressprogress.ca/senior-green-party-officials-condemned-own-leader-as-autocratic-and-dishonest-in-confidential-internal-letter/">disgruntled members leaking stories to the media</a>. </p>
<p>Rather than presenting itself as a professional party capable of leading the country, Canadians were treated to what seemed like a reality show that seriously eroded voter trust and confidence. It’s no wonder Paul described her leadership <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elizabeth-may-won-t-be-green-interim-leader-says-annamie-paul-hurting-party-1.5608501">as the worst period in her life</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens must also define their governance structure and cultural soul, including <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/it-has-been-the-worst-period-in-my-life-annamie-paul-stepping-down-as-leader-of-federal-green-party-1.5601931">addressing the systemic barriers within the party</a> in terms of <a href="https://www.csps-efpc.gc.ca/anti-racism-eng.aspx">equity, diversity and inclusion</a> related to culture, race, language, gender, physical ability and religion. </p>
<p>Some members, like <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/10/08/Where-Greens-Go-From-Here/">former leadership candidate Glenn Murray</a>, have called for the party to figure out what it really stands for. Anna Keenan, Green candidate in Prince Edward Island, says the party should focus on a culture of team unity that is “<a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/10/05/as-annamie-paul-steps-away-from-the-green-party-recent-candidates-say-its-future-rests-on-fostering-internal-unity/321327">struggling together towards the same goals, instead of struggling against each other</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="May stands in front of a Green Party sign, wearing a green jacket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Elizabeth May on election night in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span>
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<p>The party also has to come to terms with the role of the leader in the Green Party of Canada. In response to Paul’s resignation, May stated in an interview that the Greens leader is not the boss: <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/10/03/whos-the-boss-not-the-next-leader-of-the-green-party-says-elizabeth-may.html">“You’re the chief spokesperson,” she said. “You’re not the boss.”</a> The question is whether future Green Party leadership candidates fully understand and accept this challenge.</p>
<p>The role of interim leader or caretaker is still being determined. <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-to-appoint-interim-leader-to-steady-troubled-party-with-may-floated-as-option-1.5603737">Both May and Jo-Ann Roberts, a former journalist turned Green candidate, have steered the ship before and are being considered</a>.</p>
<p>Other political parties have weathered internal storms. There are many Greens in Canada who are hoping the Green Party can do so too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Speers has been a member of four different political parties at some point during her life. She has been non-partisan for almost twenty years and teaches in a manner that encourages critical thinking and that prepares students to work for a government of any political stripe. </span></em></p>Political parties often weather internal storms. There are many Greens in Canada who are hoping the Green Party can do so too after Annamie Paul’s leadership laid bare serious issues in the party.Kimberly Speers, Public Administration Teaching Professor, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1687502021-09-30T03:55:20Z2021-09-30T03:55:20ZHow did politicians and political parties get my mobile number? And how is that legal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423276/original/file-20210927-45889-10mjfd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C33%2C5607%2C3690&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly recently spammed large numbers of Australian voters by sending bulk text messages to their mobile phone numbers. </p>
<p>The spam texts, one of which promoted Kelly’s anti-vax views, struck many recipients as an invasion of privacy and triggered thousands of complaints to the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA). </p>
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<p>Kelly said the messages were “100% legal.” He is right.</p>
<p>Indeed, Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2016C00614">anti-spam law</a> applies only to “commercial” messaging and specifically exempts political communication (Section 44) — including text messages like Kelly’s. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-therapeutic-goods-administration-has-the-power-to-stop-misleading-advertising-so-why-cant-it-stop-craig-kellys-texts-168083">The Therapeutic Goods Administration has the power to stop misleading advertising. So why can't it stop Craig Kelly's texts?</a>
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<p>Some have <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/sms-spam-shakeup-new-laws-could-let-aussies-unsubscribe-from-unwanted-political-text-messages/news-story/6ec6668e6e343a913277ac8487e5a556">proposed</a> changes that would allow people to unsubscribe from unwanted political text messages. </p>
<p>But it is likely in future we will see more, not less, unsolicited text messaging — and not just in politics. </p>
<h2>How did they get my number?</h2>
<p>Kelly, who joined Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party earlier this year, has said he used software to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/united-australia-party-leader-craig-kelly-defends-spam-messages-20210829-p58mv7.html">generate random mobile numbers</a>.</p>
<p>That’s plausible: there are plenty of <a href="https://www.coolgenerator.com/phone-number-generator">sites</a> that will perform this relatively simple task. </p>
<p>But it is not cheap to upload the random numbers onto a server that can send text messages. It’s also not efficient, as many of the randomly generated numbers will not be real numbers. </p>
<p>Then again, Palmer’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/clive-palmer-spent-83-million-on-failed-election-bid-20200203-p53x4j">track record</a> of lavish electoral expenditure in the 2019 federal election suggests he can afford such an approach. </p>
<p>Kelly did not reveal the actual number of text messages he sent, though it is likely to be in the thousands.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-political-parties-legally-harvest-your-data-and-use-it-to-bombard-you-with-election-spam-148803">How political parties legally harvest your data and use it to bombard you with election spam</a>
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<p>There are plenty of other ways in which your mobile phone number might end up being fodder for marketing campaigns. </p>
<p>Think how many times you provide your private contact details for retail and financial transactions, social media accounts, ID checks, entertainment subscriptions. </p>
<p>Now ask yourself: how often do you read the privacy policy of the company or organisation collecting your data? </p>
<p>The reality is your private details have a commercial value. In the murky world of data harvesting, they can be transferred and bundled up into <a href="https://australiantelemarketingleads.net/shop/consumer-leads/consumer-mobile-numbers-database">large data bases</a> and rented out to <a href="https://www.directmarketinglistsaustralia.com.au/about-us">telemarketers</a> — or they can be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_data_breaches">leaked</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/apr/05/facebook-data-leak-2021-breach-check-australia-users">hacked</a>.</p>
<p>These can include your mobile phone numbers.</p>
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<h2>How is that legal?</h2>
<p>By and large Australian phone numbers, including both landline and mobile services, are well secured. Access to the Integrated Public Number Database (IPND), managed by Telstra, is <a href="https://www.acma.gov.au/accessing-ipnd#access-to-unlisted-numbers-ipnd-regulations">overseen by the Australian Communications and Media Authority</a>. </p>
<p>Phone subscribers can choose to have a “silent” (unlisted) number, and can opt out of telemarketing calls via the <a href="https://www.donotcall.gov.au/about/about-the-do-not-call-register/">do not call register</a>.</p>
<p>But even here, there are political exemptions. Researchers can be given permission to call numbers from the IPND to conduct interview-based research – including market research into “federal state and local government electoral matters.”</p>
<p>ACMA can <a href="https://www.acma.gov.au/articles/2021-06/crackdown-financial-services-marketing-kalkine-companies-pay-350000-penalty">punish</a> companies that misuse numbers for “spam” marketing purposes.</p>
<p>But both Telstra and ACMA are clear <a href="https://exchange.telstra.com.au/blocking-political-text-messages/">they can’t block political parties</a>, along with charities and some government agencies, from sending unsolicited marketing numbers.</p>
<h2>What about the electoral roll?</h2>
<p>When you enrol to vote, you provide your full name, date of birth, current residential address, phone number or numbers, email address and citizenship. You also need proof of identity such as a driver’s licence or passport. </p>
<p>These details are <a href="https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1437181665282043905">well protected</a> and support Australia’s system of compulsory voting. Again, however, under the Electoral Act, your name and address can be provided to members of parliament, registered political parties and candidates for the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>For both major parties, ALP and Liberal, that information forms the basis of the large data bases they have assembled for targeted campaigning: making phone calls, knocking on doors, sending automated “robocalls” and texting.</p>
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<h2>Why are political parties exempt?</h2>
<p>When Kelly joined Palmer’s party, he not only accessed Palmer’s campaign war chest. Registered political parties enjoy special treatment under Australian electoral law – including entitlement to public funding for their campaign costs, and exemptions from privacy rules governing access to personal data.</p>
<p>The rationale for the exemption is that no regulator should impede the free flow of information about electoral choice. </p>
<p>The argument is that claims and counterclaims by different politicians and parties — even false claims about vaccinations — constitute the lifeblood of democracy and should be resolved, ultimately, at the ballot box, not in the courts. </p>
<p>All this is underpinned by the High Court’s finding that the constitution “implies” the <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/rights-and-freedoms/freedom-information-opinion-and-expression">freedom of political communications</a> to the extent necessary to allow the operation of democratic government.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/83-of-australians-want-tougher-privacy-laws-nows-your-chance-to-tell-the-government-what-you-want-149535">83% of Australians want tougher privacy laws. Now’s your chance to tell the government what you want</a>
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<p>For all these reasons, political advertising in Australia is largely unregulated. It doesn’t have to be truthful or factual. Courts and regulators would be reluctant in the midst of an election campaign to adjudicate on truth; voters are expected to have the wisdom to work it all out at the ballot box.</p>
<p>Of course, political parties are not just the beneficiaries of this lack of regulation; they are in a real sense its authors. The capacity of rival parties to collaborate in shaping laws to suit themselves forms a key pillar of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40407077">cartel theory of parties</a>. </p>
<p>The main, virtually the sole, regulatory requirement for political ads is they are “authorised” – that is, they include the name of a person responsible for them. Authorisation provides accountability for political statements. </p>
<h2>Remember ‘Mediscare’?</h2>
<p>Back in 2016, however, SMS messages were not covered by this requirement. At the end of the 2016 federal election campaign, the Queensland Labor Party sent a bulk text message promoting its <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-we-should-have-seen-labors-medicare-sms-coming-62177">scare campaign about Liberal plans to “privatise Medicare”</a>. </p>
<p>The text messages were not authorised and, moreover, purported to come from “Medicare.” </p>
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<p>The law was <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/847218189821853696">tightened</a> in 2019. Kelly’s text messages were <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/April/Authorising_online_political_communication">authorised</a>, by himself. </p>
<h2>Is this likely to happen more often in the future?</h2>
<p>During the Black Summer bushfires, blazes ripped through Cobargo on the far south coast of New South Wales. As part of the nation’s emergency warning system, thousands of landlines and mobile phones — my own included — were <a href="https://www.emergencyalert.gov.au/frequently-asked-questions/how-will-it-work-on-my-landline.html">alerted</a> with urgent warnings to evacuate. </p>
<p>Alerts were sent to mobiles according to their registered service address and also to the “last known location of the handset at the time of the emergency.” </p>
<p>It is a far cry from Kelly, and no one envisages political parties being able to target voters by this kind of electronic geo-location. </p>
<p>But it suggests the ability to send brief, urgent and unsolicited text messages, to large numbers of people, is too valuable to ignore. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-we-should-have-seen-labors-medicare-sms-coming-62177">Three reasons why we should have seen Labor's 'Medicare SMS' coming</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Mills does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is likely in future we will see more, not less, unsolicited text messaging — and not just in politics.Stephen Mills, Hon Senior Lecturer, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1666022021-09-05T08:15:53Z2021-09-05T08:15:53ZChieftaincy conflicts in Ghana are mixed up with politics: what’s at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419040/original/file-20210902-21-ik1uqt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chieftaincy holds pride of place in local administration in Ghana.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vitting_chief.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Chieftaincy is one of Ghana’s oldest traditional institutions. It has remained resilient despite attempts by both colonial and post-independent governments to control and undermine it. According to <a href="https://www.helplinelaw.com/law/ghana/constitution/constitution22.php#:%7E:text=ARTICLE%20270.,and%20usage%2C%20is%20hereby%20guaranteed.&text=in%20any%20way%20detracts%20or,of%20the%20institution%20of%20chieftaincy.">Article 270</a> of Ghana’s 1992 constitution, the chieftaincy institution is recognised as part of the country’s governance system. </p>
<p>Chiefs settle disputes and govern community lands. They are custodians of customs and tradition, and are advocates for development in their areas. The chieftaincy institution is still largely supported by many Ghanaians and modern governments. The importance of chiefs to the government is clearly seen in the work of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17502977.2020.1856551?journalCode=risb20">Committee of Eminent Chiefs</a>, which the government set up and supported to resolve the long-standing <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17502977.2020.1856551?journalCode=risb20">Dagbon chieftaincy conflict</a>.</p>
<p>But chieftaincy conflicts have been a persistent problem. The majority of conflicts have been in northern Ghana, where they have resulted in violent clashes leading to the <a href="http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/handle/123456789/2134">deaths of hundreds</a>. </p>
<p>They include the Dagbon, <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/558360/pdf">Bawku</a>, <a href="https://www.diis.dk/en/node/24350">Bimbilla</a>, <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/958481/bolga-chieftaincy-case-dery-urges-feuding-fact.html">Bolga</a> and <a href="http://ir.knust.edu.gh/bitstream/123456789/396/1/ALI%20YAKUBU%20NYAABA.pdf">Bole</a> chieftaincy conflicts. </p>
<p>In our new <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19392206.2021.1932244">study</a>, we used two protracted chieftaincy conflicts in northern Ghana (<a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/558360/pdf">Bawku</a> and <a href="https://www.diis.dk/en/node/24350">Bimbilla</a>) to explore the complex causes of these conflicts. We aimed to provide a nuanced understanding which could contribute to finding solutions to the conflicts.</p>
<p>Our study shows that beyond the contest among royals, chieftaincy conflicts involve other actors. They are caught up in the quest for political power and not just based on historical or ethnic rivalries. Political elites, youth groups and local politicians have all influenced and manipulated chieftaincy conflicts for their own agendas. Traditional and political contestants use each other. The result is that trust in both the state and the traditional institution is declining. </p>
<h2>Networks</h2>
<p>In our study we interviewed community members, factions from rival parties and members of security agencies like the police and army. We also drew on data from archival reports, news reports, journals and books.</p>
<p>Our study found that chieftaincy conflicts are the result of numerous processes of actor networks and alliances developed through time. They are not just a reflection of divergent perspectives within social structures like social ties, family and tribal relations or history. </p>
<p>In order to understand chieftaincy conflicts, it is necessary to identify the individuals or parties involved, as well as their networks and resources. The <a href="https://www.diis.dk/en/node/24350">Bimbilla</a> and the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/558360/pdf">Bawku</a> conflicts clearly show the role that politics and external intrigues play in fuelling conflict. This is what we call the actor constellation.</p>
<p>For instance, the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/558360">Bawku conflict</a> is an inter-ethnic conflict involving two large ethnic groups, the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41405753?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">Kusasi</a> and the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/558360">Mamprusi</a>, over the Bawku skin (throne). It began in 1951 as a result of a dispute between rival royal houses which both lay claim through the patrilineal inheritance system. </p>
<p>The Bimbilla conflict involves two families within the same ethnic group over who has legitimacy over the Nanun skin. The chief is decided on a rotational system between two families (referred to as gates), namely the <a href="https://3news.com/bimbilla-gate-backs-togbe-sri-mediation-process-for-peace/">Bangyili</a> and the <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/59c8e13c4.html">Gbomayili</a>. It is a more recent conflict, arising from the death of then paramount chief <a href="https://ghalii.org/gh/judgment/supreme-court/2018/30">Naa Abarika of the Bangyili</a> gate. The dispute over succession has led to several violent clashes and a Supreme Court ruling.</p>
<h2>Interference</h2>
<p>Our study confirmed the presence of multiple actors in chieftaincy conflicts who come with different interests, introducing their own agendas and attempting to enrol other actors onto their side. They don’t only organise themselves along ethnic lines, they also recruit politicians and state officials into their networks. </p>
<p>People who are not even closely related to the chieftaincy contest take an active interest in these conflicts and become embroiled in the escalation of violence. In the Bimbilla conflict for instance, the ethnic group known as the Nanumbas, who are not royals, support at least one group against the other. Violent attacks often involve people who are neither biologically related to the skin nor have right of ascension, but support a faction. For example, there is subtle support by the largest opposition party in the country, the <a href="https://www.ndc.org.gh/">National Democratic Congress</a>, for the Bangyili gate while the governing <a href="https://newpatrioticparty.org/">New Patriotic Party</a> supports the Gbomayili. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Bawku chieftaincy conflict has seen the involvement of various actors including politicians, different ethnic groups and businessmen. The conflict is beyond ethnicity or the rightful heir to the skin. Since independence, the two factions in the conflict have received backing from administrations linked with different political ideologies. The <a href="http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/handle/123456789/36055">Kusasis</a> have been supported by the National Democratic Congress as leading members of the group have remained within that party. Leading politicians from the New Patriotic Party, who are prominent among the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Mamprusi">Mamprusi</a>, have supported the group financially and with state power. </p>
<h2>Dangers</h2>
<p>Political elites, youth groups, and local politicians in northern Ghana have all used chieftaincy conflicts to further their political and economic goals with reasonable levels of success. Political actors recognise that chiefs are crucial allies in winning elections. And it goes both ways. Candidates for chieftaincy positions rely on the backing of local and national leaders to help them achieve control over a traditional area. </p>
<p>This association, however, has come at a cost. The reverence for chieftaincy is under threat in so far as subjects consider chiefs as political tools. And conflicts persist. The ultimate danger is the weakening of state institutions and the continuation of violence which invariably affects development and democracy. </p>
<p>In resolving chieftaincy conflicts and stopping their politicisation, the various houses of chiefs should be empowered and be the only institution for handling chieftaincy issues. Secondly, there is a need to codify the lines of succession in Ghana. Finally, there must be sanctions against politicians and others who interfere in chieftaincy, which is protected by the constitution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166602/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chieftaincy conflicts in northern Ghana have hindered development in the country.Kaderi Noagah Bukari, Research Fellow, Department of Peace Studies, University of Cape CoastPatrick Osei-Kufour, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Development Studies, University of Cape CoastShaibu Bukari, Research Fellow, Department of labour and Human Resource, University of Cape CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482522020-11-02T19:06:51Z2020-11-02T19:06:51ZAustralia, the climate can’t wait for the next federal election. It’s time to take control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366020/original/file-20201028-23-1pv8210.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C3%2C2029%2C1361&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">STEVEN SAPHORE/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is difficult to know what to do when governments fail us. But there’s no need to wait until the next election to deal with the climate crisis, we can act now. </p>
<p>An overwhelming majority of Australians want action on climate change. And the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic shows governments can act decisively and effectively on imminent threats. But on climate action, there is a lack of political will. </p>
<p>So in the absence of federal leadership, what should be done? And who must do what? </p>
<p>Those questions are already being answered by state governments, councils, researchers, entrepreneurs and financiers who understand the climate problem. Their actions are slowing our slide to disaster – but they need others to step up.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scott Morrison holds a lump of coal in QuestionTime" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366021/original/file-20201028-19-17eq2p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There is an absence of will in federal parliament to deal with climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>States are filling the gap</h2>
<p>Among the most important entities in climate action in Australia are the state and territory governments. <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-act-is-now-running-on-100-renewable-electricity">The ACT</a> was the first to eliminate fossil fuels for electricity generation. Tasmania is <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2020/03/05/climate-policy-done-right-tasmania-sets-200-re-target-by-2040/">on track</a> to be there by 2022, and has now set a 200% renewable energy target by 2040, with the additional clean energy to be used to produce hydrogen. </p>
<p>South Australia is also <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-on-track-to-100-pct-renewables-as-regulator-comes-to-party-96366/">set to be</a> powered solely by renewables by the 2030s. These jurisdictions show what can be done in Australia if there’s a political will, and successive governments stick with a plan. </p>
<p>Some larger states are catching up fast. New South Wales has recently gone from being one of the worst performers to among the best. The Berejiklian government has a <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan">ten-year plan</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, and the first stage prioritises the uptake of <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/03/16/nsw-net-zero-plan-lays-out-path-for-more-electric-vehicles/">electric vehicles</a>. It will change building codes to make it cheaper and easier to install electric charging points, encourage the uptake of electric vehicles by fleets, and change licensing and parking regulations to encourage their uptake. </p>
<p>If the states worked together to pursue the most ambitious targets and programs, Australia could do its bit to solve the climate problem.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind farm near the ACT" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366026/original/file-20201028-17-1efsjps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ACT now runs on 100% renewable energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Going local</h2>
<p>Australia’s local councils have become powerhouses of innovative climate solutions. In June 2017 I attended the Climate Council’s <a href="https://citiespowerpartnership.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/CPP-Pledge-Report_LR.pdf">Cities Power Partnership</a> at Parliament House in Canberra. Some 34 mayors and councillors attended, and I listened with interest as one after another described the projects they were working on. </p>
<p>The breadth was astonishing, from promoting bulk buys of solar panels for disadvantaged residents to making low-carbon road surfaces at local plants. Many councils were planting trees, assisting with energy efficiency measures or converting waste to energy. Since that first meeting the Cities Power Partnership has grown hugely. It now includes <a href="https://citiespowerpartnership.org.au">more than 120</a> local governments, representing half of all Australians. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-power-everyday-australians-are-building-their-own-renewables-projects-and-you-can-too-146885">People power: everyday Australians are building their own renewables projects, and you can too</a>
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<p>It is not just Australia’s local councils forging ahead with climate action. Individual households lead the world in producing clean energy. More than <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/solar/">two million households</a> — 21% of the nation’s total — have now installed solar panels. This, of course, was supported by the federal government’s renewable energy target. But it wouldn’t have happened without Australians paying good money for their rooftop solar panels.</p>
<p>Movements aimed at building momentum will doubtless continue. In September 2019, hundreds of thousands marched during the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/hundreds-of-thousands-attend-school-climate-strike-rallies-across-australia">school climate strikes</a>. The movement grew from a one-person protest by Swedish activist <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49918719">Greta Thunberg</a>, which took place just a year earlier. In Australia <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-20/school-strike-for-climate-draws-thousands-to-australian-rallies/11531612">the crowds</a> were unprecedented, as was their passion.</p>
<p>The demonstrations have had limited impact on the federal government, but people are also organising in different ways. <a href="https://ausrebellion.earth">Extinction Rebellion</a>, an group just two years old, is one of the potentially more potent. Its members are committed to breaking the law peacefully. Part of their power lies in the fact that they keep reminding the police, courts and politicians that their actions aim to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r89CvYYKdxw">save everybody’s children,</a> not just their own.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r89CvYYKdxw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An Extinction Rebellion video calling on leaders to save the future of today’s children.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But what of national politics?</h2>
<p>Action by state governments, councils, individuals and groups will be critical to tackling climate change. But that still leaves the problem of federal parliament.</p>
<p>More pro-climate independents in federal parliament would shift our politics in the right direction. At the last election, voters in the northern Sydney seat of Warringah dispensed with incumbent Tony Abbott, in favour of independent candidate Zali Steggall (who won an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-tony-abbott-lived-and-died-with-division/11121594">astonishing 58%</a> of the two-party preferred vote). It shows what’s possible when traditionally conservative voters get sick of being held to ransom by climate deniers in parliament.</p>
<p>But other <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-craig-kelly-backs-advance-australia-s-climate-change-resources-in-classrooms-20200221-p54366.html">deniers</a> in the parliamentary party remain influential. Their modus operandi, as former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/like-terrorists-malcolm-turnbull-assails-liberal-climate-deniers-20200206-p53y6u.html">has said</a>, is that of terrorists threatening to blow the place up if they don’t get their way. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-79-of-aussies-care-about-climate-change-so-why-doesnt-the-government-listen-148726">New polling shows 79% of Aussies care about climate change. So why doesn't the government listen?</a>
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<hr>
<p>Getting more independents into parliament will not be easy. The major political parties, which have many millions of dollars to spend at elections, will fiercely oppose any challengers. </p>
<p>But imagine if the Liberal-Nationals were forced to rid themselves of denialists to head off challenges by independents. What if they could once more implement rational, enduring energy and climate policies? Well, we are at a moment in time where this might be possible. </p>
<p>Membership of both the Labor and Liberal parties has dwindled in recent decades. That means a tiny, self-selected portion of Australia’s population chooses the candidates we vote for. </p>
<p>This has exposed the Liberals, in particular, to hijack by climate deniers – given the small membership numbers, it’s not hard for denialist candidates to win preselection. But if party members let these wreckers run the show, Australia will continue on the path to catastrophe.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protest signs outside Parliament House in Canberra" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366022/original/file-20201028-19-jzqwvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">More pro-climate independents are needed to help shape national policy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Time to step up</h2>
<p>Australians have become used to living with governments that don’t serve our interests. Many people are rightly cynical and disengaged from politics. And that’s exactly where the climate deniers would like us to be. </p>
<p>But to effect real change, we must shake free of apathy. New people will have to step up and join those who have been persevering in pushing for climate action for years. </p>
<p>With enough momentum, we can embark on the cure for this most wicked of problems.</p>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from The Climate Cure: Solving the Climate Emergency in the Era of COVID-19 by Tim Flannery (Text Publishing).</em></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/distress-depression-and-drug-use-young-people-fear-for-their-future-after-the-bushfires-146320">Distress, depression and drug use: young people fear for their future after the bushfires</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Flannery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>State governments, councils, researchers and entrepreneurs are slowing our slide to disaster – but they need others to step up.Tim Flannery, Professorial fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1468892020-10-08T12:37:41Z2020-10-08T12:37:41ZThere’s nothing unusual about early voting – it’s been done since the founding of the republic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362030/original/file-20201006-22-1do4yr8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C27%2C5978%2C4032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An early voter waits in line outside the Athens County Board of Elections Office on Oct. 6, 2020 in Athens, Ohio. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/early-voters-wait-in-line-outside-the-athens-county-board-news-photo/1228926910?adppopup=true">Ty Wright/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With voting in key states <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/national-news/2020/10/04/early-voting-already-underway-in-28-states-as-election-day-becomes-election-season">having begun more than six weeks before Election Day</a>, early voting has emerged as a contentious issue. Observing that the country now has more of an election season than an election day, Attorney General Bill Barr lamented that “<a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/election-day-season-early-voting.html">we’re losing the whole idea of what an election is</a>.” </p>
<p>I’m a scholar of the presidency. And as many in this field know, early voting periods are not new to the 2020 election. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Crowd on Election Day in Philadelphia in 1840." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=933&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=933&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362271/original/file-20201007-16-eyh95l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=933&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In 1840, Pennsylvania held its election on Friday, Oct. 30. At the time, most other states held their presidential elections on a Monday or Tuesday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://libwww.freelibrary.org/digital/item/39568">Artist, Frederic B. Schell/Free Library of Philadelphia</a></span>
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<h2>First presidential election took one month</h2>
<p>There are many historical examples of an election period as opposed to an election day. </p>
<p>At the founding, there was no set national election day. <a href="http://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/presidential-election-of-1789/">The first presidential election</a> started on Dec. 15, 1788, and ended almost a month later, on Jan. 10, 1789. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.loc.gov/law/help/statutes-at-large/2nd-congress/c2.pdf">1792, Congress passed a law</a> that permitted each state to choose presidential electors any time within a 34-day period before the first Wednesday in December. During this period, states determined what day to hold their presidential elections, resulting in a patchwork of election days. Most states had their election on a single day, but some had elections over the course of two days.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4624813">From 1789 to 1840</a>, states gradually converged on early November as the time to hold their presidential elections, laying the groundwork for congressional adoption of a uniform presidential election day. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Calvin Coolidge filling out his absentee ballot at a desk outside of the White House." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=764&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362176/original/file-20201007-24-1ska6at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Calvin Coolidge filling out his absentee ballot on Oct. 30, 1924. That year’s election was held on Nov. 4, and Coolidge won.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-poltician-us-president-calvin-coolidge-sits-at-a-news-photo/182122292?adppopup=true">PhotoQuest/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-2945-9.html">1840 presidential electoral season</a> began on Friday, Oct. 30, in Ohio and Pennsylvania and ended on Thursday, Nov. 12, in North Carolina, except for South Carolina, whose state Legislature still chose its electors. </p>
<h2>Limiting voter fraud</h2>
<p>It wasn’t until 1845 that <a href="https://www.loc.gov/law/help/statutes-at-large/28th-congress/session-2/c28s2ch1.pdf">Congress formally adopted a national election day</a> — the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. </p>
<p>With the invention of the telegraph, the rise of two-party competition across most states and record-breaking voter turnout, both parties had an interest in regulating elections and establishing a national election day. </p>
<p>In addition, parties were becoming more concerned about election fraud, especially the “<a href="https://memory.loc.gov/cgi-bin/ampage?collId=llcg&fileName=013/llcg013.db&recNum=373">the importation of voters from one State to another.”</a> Most of the discussion in Congress focused on which day election day should be, with the prevailing idea that it should be about 30 days before the meeting of the electors, and on a Tuesday, according to a story in The Boston Daily Globe in February of 1915. </p>
<p>The legislators chose Tuesday because most states already held their elections on Monday or Tuesday, and they thought it was generally a good idea to have one day between Sunday and election day, making Tuesday the preferred day over Monday. </p>
<p>But even during this period there remained elements of an election season. According to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0898588X07000193">Scott James</a>, the 1848 congressional elections spanned 15 months, from August 1848 to November 1849. Leading up to the Civil War, a clear split in scheduling congressional elections emerged. </p>
<p>Northern states tended to adopt the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, the same day as presidential elections, to hold congressional elections. Southern states, in contrast, scheduled congressional elections several months after presidential election day. It wasn’t until 1872 that Congress mandated that all states hold their congressional elections on the same day as the presidential election. </p>
<p>Moreover, a state’s early statewide electoral contests could act as a political laboratory for national elections. The saying “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2143085">As Maine goes, so goes the nation</a>” originated in the 19th century as Maine’s early statewide election returns, particularly in the governor’s race, often predicted the party of the presidential election winner. Political parties converged on Maine in September to rally their voters in hopes of influencing the November presidential election across the nation. </p>
<p>The establishment of an explicit early voting period rests on the <a href="https://postalmuseum.si.edu/collections/object-spotlight/absentee-voting-in-the-civil-war-ohio-cover">precedent set during the Civil War</a>. There were numerous ways soldiers on the battlefield could cast their vote: mailing proxy votes, ballots or voting in person at camps and hospitals close to the battlefield. </p>
<p>The proxy votes, ballots, and/or tally sheets from the voting sites were then mailed to the soldier’s or sailor’s home state for counting. In Ohio, the absentee military ballots that were considered qualified – from white men over 21 years old – <a href="https://postalmuseum.si.edu/collections/object-spotlight/absentee-voting-in-the-civil-war-ohio-cover">accounted for 12%</a> of Ohio’s votes in the 1864 presidential election. </p>
<p>Since then, multiple forms of early voting have been established. Early voting can happen in person or through voting by mail. In a <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1015046.html">2001 federal appeals case</a> challenging Oregon’s no-excuse absentee voting, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld early voting periods, ruling that the election must only be “consummated” on Election Day. </p>
<p>In other words, voters need to cast their ballots by Election Day, but the law does not prevent them from voting earlier. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pennsylvania soldiers voting in the presidential election of 1864 in their camp." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362032/original/file-20201006-20-o2xqq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Union soldiers from Pennsylvania voting at their encampment in the presidential election, Army of the James, 1864.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://lccn.loc.gov/2004661229">William Waud/Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Early voting accelerates</h2>
<p>In 1978, California lifted the requirement that a voter provide an approved reason, such as “<a href="https://calmatters.org/explainer/121532/embed/b0e8ab03-bff3-47d1-8ebe-ab0f8c38e5c3">occupation requiring travel or federal or state military or naval service</a>,” to vote by mail, initiating a trend of early voting by mail in several Western states.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, Texas offered its voters early voting in person. The number of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/early-voting-and-turnout/CA26767893568A1B6DB1EA56C49196E2">states adopting early voting periods</a> began to surge in the 1990s and included Florida, Nevada, Georgia, Tennessee and Iowa. After the 2000 presidential election and the controversy over “hanging chads,” many more states adopted early in-person voting periods to help with election administration. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.eac.gov/news/2017/06/29/newly-released-2016-election-administration-and-voting-survey-provides-snapshot">U.S. Election Assistance Commission</a> reports that in 2016 more than 41% of all ballots nationwide were cast before Election Day – with in-person early voting making up 17%, and voting by mail 24%, of all turnout. </p>
<p>Early voting is on its way to break all records in 2020, because of the pandemic, expansion of mail-in voting and voter interest. As of Oct. 7, <a href="https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html">Michael McDonald of the U.S. Elections Project</a> reports that over 5 million voters have already cast their ballots, compared with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-early-vote-idUSKBN26R1LR">approximately 75,000 voters in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Does early voting increase voter turnout rates overall, or does it just split the voters who would normally vote on Election Day? </p>
<p>While some scholars contend that early in-person voting periods potentially can <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24363471">decrease</a> voter turnout, studies that focus on vote-by-mail, a form of early voting, generally show an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/322196">increase </a>in voter turnout. <a href="https://uc72f23077aa90e9f37223ab4213.dl.dropboxusercontent.com/cd/0/inline2/BA3I1hwY2TWWAOebQOMdXjSTJNpJCmdK2cZfWww75QAFO8goietIcfmQyabIogj9zMS8_xnA649xp-ZyOQ9_Wu3Fhd0Pq2MzmfY3uIcgmwF7RLj0LHybVO_V0xaJMGAYdE4_pIKRCzB9lV9-8veWMIcyUUdeBJjo5atLdaJlPdb6LhLyHVRc9bvjvjYCtwPFfNB1XG7m8h1JfNiKNA4Iq1TRFl6nPjT3ruVygVqhAhqoH0z6P2T-DIYgI7B_79yt51wKXw-eeU4NobEa_977xfKFmUaynkqe4ghkgYkm-D8HyzC3KOKRXS_xpYPUCrSdZEG4tlSZ3g-s0JKUk2e6gNlRzCn1BWNruGFdJRIZlSol8Q/file#">New research</a> presents evidence that the implementation of all-mail voting in Colorado increased voter turnout by 9.4 percent overall.</p>
<p>Early voting periods may have an effect on who turns out, as well – which may explain Attorney General Barr’s lack of enthusiasm for early voting periods. Although <a href="https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/new-research-voting-mail-shows-neutral-partisan-effects">past studies</a> have shown that early voting did not help one party over the other, the 2020 election may be different. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p><a href="https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html">As of early October 2020</a>, Democrats have cast 55.3% of the early ballots, whereas Republicans have cast only 24.2%. Independents have cast 19.8% and voters affiliated with a minor party less than 1%. </p>
<p>But there is still plenty of time for more people to vote early, either by mail or in person, before Election Day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terri Bimes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This year is seeing a high number of absentee and mail-in ballots and voting in the period before Election Day – but early voting periods are not new to the 2020 election.Terri Bimes, Associate Teaching Professor of Political Science, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1414222020-07-23T12:16:27Z2020-07-23T12:16:27ZWhat are political parties’ platforms – and do they matter?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347369/original/file-20200714-139854-is4bzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3290%2C2190&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At the 2016 Democratic National Convention, a delegate holds up a copy of the Democratic Party Platform.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/DEM-2016-Convention/ed5715656ffd41b9be31425e777738a3/80/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political parties’ platforms – their statements of where they stand on issues – get little respect. President Donald Trump mused recently that he might shrink his party’s platform from 66 pages in 2016 to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/us/politics/republican-platform.html">single page in 2020</a>. Even as far back as 1996, Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole claimed he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/23/do-party-platforms-really-matter/">had never read his party’s platform</a>. Nor do Democratic Party platforms – such as the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-propose-new-draft-to-party-platform-revealing-shifts-in-focus-since-2016/2020/07/22/e9fc9062-cbbe-11ea-bc6a-6841b28d9093_story.html">draft released July 22</a> – usually make the best-seller list.</p>
<p>If Trump wants to slash it, and Dole didn’t even read it, why should you care about a party’s platform? As a scholar of U.S. party politics, I have seen that <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Party-Politics-in-America-17th-Edition/Hershey/p/book/9781138683686">party platforms are a vital clue</a> about which groups hold real power in the two major national parties. When they are formally published after the parties’ conventions in August, they’ll also help you predict what the national government will actually do during the next four years.</p>
<h2>Where does the platform come from?</h2>
<p>Each national party has a platform-writing committee, composed of major party figures and representatives of interest groups closely linked with the party. They do their work in the spring and summer prior to the presidential conventions.</p>
<p>When there’s a first-term president, his or her party’s committee gets its direction from the White House; presidents don’t want to run for reelection on a platform other than their own. This year, the Republican platform is very much under the control of <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-calls-for-new-and-updated-republican-party-platform">Donald Trump and his closest advisers</a>. </p>
<p>For parties challenging a sitting president – such as the Democrats in 2020 – the <a href="https://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/dnc-public-hearings-platform-223663">platform committee holds hearings around the nation</a>, in person and online, to hear from the public. In reality, those who testify are almost always leaders of interest groups. The party’s presidential nominee will also have great influence over its contents. </p>
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<p>Writers of party platforms must combine the stirring – though very abstract – values that brought supporters to the party with the specifics desired by the party’s allied interest groups as the price of their loyalty.</p>
<p>This means simultaneously touting rhetorical key points such as strong national defense, fair treatment of all people or a great educational system, while making particular promises, such as pledges to nominate right-wing judges, ban specific policing methods or reduce particular emissions that cause climate change. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21567689.2014.959503">The strongest party factions</a> can get their goals written directly into the text of the party platform.</p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/presidents-promises-from-campaign-pledge-to-presidential-performance/oclc/11290254">platform writers have to navigate</a> the tension between candidates’ desire for a broad appeal to voters and interest groups’ insistence on explicit commitments to their goals. Typically, most of the platform’s language involves stirring appeals to the broader electorate. The rest is a laundry list of specific promises to organized groups.</p>
<p>Once it’s written, the platform is adopted by the party’s quadrennial national convention. In times past, fierce debate ensued over some platform elements, such as abortion. Now, the <a href="https://www.pearson.com/us/higher-education/program/Abramowitz-Polarized-Public-The/PGM59757.html">parties are so polarized</a>, and the national conventions have become such a public display of unity and enthusiasm, that they try to avoid debate about the platform.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347374/original/file-20200714-22-1p8xm4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Printed copies of the Republican Party platform for 2016 were given to attendees at the party’s national convention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-formal-printed-2016-republican-platform-sits-on-the-news-photo/577067300">Jeff Swensen/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happens then?</h2>
<p>The party leadership can’t do anything to enforce its platform – and can’t even expel candidates who reject or only weakly support the platform. That’s because party leaders don’t choose the party’s candidates; the voters do, in primary elections, and <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Party-Politics-in-America-17th-Edition/Hershey/p/book/9781138683686">voters don’t necessarily heed the advice</a> of national party leaders. </p>
<p>The classic example of this is Rep. Phil Gramm, elected by voters in his Texas House district as a Democrat in 1978. Gramm sided with Republican House members to support President Ronald Reagan’s policies, and his Democratic colleagues punished him by taking away his seat on the prized House Budget Committee. Undaunted, Gramm returned to his district, and ran for his old seat as a Republican. He won. The fact that Gramm had been elected as a Democrat but rejected a key plank in the Democratic national platform apparently <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/1996/0206/06101.html">didn’t bother his voters at all</a>.</p>
<p>There are even times a national party would rather that its candidate in a particular district not support the party’s platform. For instance, if Democratic voters in a swing congressional district have chosen to nominate a candidate who is pro-life, then that’s probably the type of Democrat most likely to win in that district. It wouldn’t benefit national party leaders to fight for a pro-choice Democratic candidate who would likely lose that district to a Republican.</p>
<h2>Signals of coming action</h2>
<p>Platforms may not bind elected officials, and they may go unread by almost everybody. Yet they do have meaning. Those who do read them can make a good guess about how a party’s elected officials will behave in office. Researchers find that when a party controls Congress and the White House, its <a href="http://doi.org/10.2307/1963632">spending priorities reflect issues emphasized in its platform</a> most of the time. Most presidents make some effort to carry out their campaign promises; when they fail, at least until 2017, it’s normally been due to congressional opposition.</p>
<p>Changes in the platform are often significant indicators of change in the party. When the 1980 Republican platform <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/26/what-we-get-wrong-about-southern-strategy">dropped the party’s longstanding commitment to the Equal Rights Amendment</a> and adopted strong anti-abortion language, that was clear evidence of the shift toward right-wing conservatism that now characterizes the Republican Party.</p>
<p>So you may never read a party platform, but don’t dismiss it as fluff; at least <a href="http://doi.org/10.2307/2108616">since World War II</a>, it can tell you a lot about <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/janfeb-2012/campaign-promises/">how the party will spend your tax dollars</a> if it wins power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjorie Hershey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Party platforms are a vital clue about which groups hold real power in the two major national parties, and can help predict what the government will actually do.Marjorie Hershey, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311612020-02-05T11:01:57Z2020-02-05T11:01:57ZResearch with party members offers an important clue about how to heal Brexit divisions<p>Anyone wanting to understand post-Brexit Britain should make a beeline for <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/divided-britain.pdf">a report published towards the end of last year</a> by <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute">The Policy Institute at King’s College London</a>. It draws a crucial distinction between two modern phenomena. On one hand there is affective polarisation – described in the report as “when individuals begin to segregate themselves socially and to distrust and dislike people from the opposing side, irrespective of whether they disagree on matters of policy”. On the other is issue polarisation – “the difference in values and attitudes on one or more issues”.</p>
<p>After sifting the survey evidence, the report’s authors find that “people on both sides of the Brexit vote dislike the opposing side intensely even though they don’t necessarily disagree with their positions on salient issues”.</p>
<p>In other words, while there’s plenty of evidence of affective polarisation, there’s much less for issue polarisation. This provides at least a degree of comfort for those of us who hope the UK can somehow move on from the deeply divisive politics of the past four years.</p>
<p>That’s not to say, of course, that moving on will be easy. And it will, in part, depend on how the nation’s politicos respond in the coming years. As the Policy Institute’s report notes: “voters to some extent take cues from party platforms and leaders, so polarisation among political leaders and activists can spread to the electorate.”</p>
<p>And that’s what makes the views of Britain’s rank-and-file party members important. While they don’t necessarily directly determine the tone and the direction their parties take, they do have an indirect and sometimes pretty immediate influence on them.</p>
<p>Witness, for example, how the slow growth of <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2012/11/15/conservative-euroscepticism-the-etiology-of-an-obsession/">hard euroscepticism</a> within the Conservative party eventually went on to have such dramatic consequences for the nation. </p>
<p>Don’t forget either that members also constitute the on-the-ground sales force for their parties. Because they interact on the doorstep with the public as well as with politicians, what they think, say and do about the UK’s relationship with the European Union really can matter. That’s especially the case as the nation decides what it wants its future relationship with Europe to look like.</p>
<h2>Even partisans agree on some things</h2>
<p>Over Christmas and the New Year, the <a href="https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/">Party Members Project</a>, run out of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University, asked the members of the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist and Green parties (plus registered supporters of the Brexit Party) a couple of key questions about the UK/EU relationship.</p>
<p>The first touches on what, if you like, is the broad-brush future relationship between the UK and the EU. It shows a high degree of polarisation – and perhaps affective polarisation – between what are effectively two tribes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313492/original/file-20200204-41554-hri5pv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Irreconcilable viewpoints?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/">ESRC Party Members Project</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On one side of the divide, Tory members and Brexit Party registered supporters are both overwhelmingly in favour of a more distant relationship. On the other, you have those who belong to Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and the Greens. They are even more overwhelmingly in favour of close alignment between the UK and the EU.</p>
<p>This would suggest that the country isn’t about to heal its Brexit divisions any time soon. But before we descend into total despair, it’s worth turning to the second question we asked. That’s because it’s a reminder that people – even highly partisan people – become less polarised when you ask them about specifics.</p>
<p>That’s even true for immigration – often a subject that plays into the “culture wars” narrative. We asked whether European nationals should be treated differently from people from elsewhere in the world when it comes to post-Brexit immigration.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313493/original/file-20200204-41554-1h0yxzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Finding unity wherever we can.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/">ESRC Party Members Project</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the two tribes are still pretty divided, there is far more overlap between parties on this second question than on the first one. Many members from the left-liberal parties are actually in agreement with Conservatives and Brexit Party supporters in wanting everyone to be treated the same. They might be said to come at the question from different viewpoints, but they still find some common ground, at least. </p>
<p>These findings at least give us a hint at how the UK might go about trying to heal divisions. Instead of focusing on Brexit identities and the big picture, it may be that people should move as soon as possible to talking about <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Brexit-what-next-report.pdf">the myriad specifics that need sorting out</a>. Now the UK has left the EU, the nation can best create a wider consensus on how to move forward by building on the fact that there’s much less that separates people on individual issues than separates them emotionally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Bale receives funding from the ESRC for the Party Members Project. He is also Deputy Director of the ESRC's UK in a Changing Europe initiative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Webb receives funding from the ESRC for the Party Members Project.</span></em></p>There seems little chance of getting people to agree on the big picture, but even partisans see eye-to-eye sometimes when you get down to the nitty gritty.Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonPaul Webb, Professor of Politics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1286702020-01-27T12:20:16Z2020-01-27T12:20:16ZDon’t be fooled – most independents are partisans too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309116/original/file-20200108-107224-hy3p1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The identity that people choose most often is actually 'independent' – not Democratic or Republican.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/democrats-vs-republicans-facing-off-ideological-466431008">Victor Moussa/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Will Donald Trump win reelection in 2020? To find out, you’d think you could just look up whether more Americans are registered as Republicans than Democrats.</p>
<p>But the truth is, it doesn’t really matter which party you register with on paper. Besides, <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/">19 states</a> don’t even register voters by party. </p>
<p>What really matters is what political scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9tEg468AAAAJ&hl=en">like</a> <a href="http://www.christopherjdevine.com/">myself</a> call your “<a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">political identity</a>” – your psychological attachment to a political group, such as <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/338457/american_voter_revisited">a party</a> or <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-014-9280-6">an ideological movement</a>.</p>
<p>That’s why political science surveys <a href="https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/top-tables/?id=21">ask people</a>, “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?”</p>
<p>This question aims to find out how you see yourself – essentially, which team are you on? This is how many people make sense of the political world.</p>
<h2>American independents?</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/245801/americans-continue-embrace-political-independence.aspx">Gallup polling firm</a>, the identity that people choose most often is actually “independent” – not Democratic or Republican. In 2019, 42% of Americans chose this label – up from the low 30s just 15 years earlier, in 2004. </p>
<p>However, three-quarters of these “independents” admit, when asked, that they lean toward favoring the Democratic or Republican Party. Judging by how they vote or what they think of national political leaders, the truth is that these “leaners” really are <a href="http://themonkeycage.org/2009/12/three_myths_about_political_in/">partisans rather than independents</a>. Apparently, many people who like to think of themselves as independent-minded and free of party influence aren’t. </p>
<p>So, why call themselves independents? Typically, according to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/independent-politics/23F3E25D6AE3A35E94993C7D4409FA5D">one leading study</a>, it is “not because they disagree with the parties ideologically or politically but because being a party member is embarrassing.”</p>
<p>In fact, only <a href="https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/top-tables/?id=21">about 10%</a> of Americans are what political scientists call “pure independents” – that is, people who identify as independents and claim not to favor either of the two major parties. Nor has that percentage grown in recent years. This means that the vast majority of Americans – consistently around 90% – are partisans, whether they like to admit it or not. </p>
<p>So, which party do more Americans identify with – Democratic or Republican?</p>
<p>The Democratic Party, usually.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/267239/democrats-hold-edge-party-affiliation-3rd-quarter.aspx">Gallup poll</a> in late 2019, 47% of Americans either called themselves Democrats or admitted leaning toward the Democratic Party, versus 42% for Republicans and 11% independents. However, there are some signs that Republicans gained ground on Democrats in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx">recent months</a>.</p>
<p>Historically speaking, there have <a href="http://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/">always been more Democrats</a> than Republicans in the American electorate – with rare and very brief exceptions – ever since Gallup began polling party identification in the 1930s.</p>
<p>But identifying with a party is not the same as voting for it. Self-identified Democrats are less likely than Republicans to turn out to vote – particularly in <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/">midterm elections</a>. This is because <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Is-Voting-for-Young-People-4th-Edition/Wattenberg/p/book/9781138962408">young people</a> and other Democratic constituencies tend to be more engaged by the spectacle of a presidential election.</p>
<p>That should be good news for Democrats this year - since, in the 2018 midterms, they won back the House of Representatives. It figures that Democrats would be even more energized to defeat Donald Trump at the polls in 2020. Right?</p>
<p>Not so fast. Recently, Gallup asked Americans whether they are <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/268136/high-enthusiasm-voting-heading-2020.aspx">more enthusiastic about voting in 2020</a> than in previous elections. As it turns out, Republicans are just as enthusiastic about voting as Democrats. This is unusual. In previous elections, the party out of power always expressed more enthusiasm. But not this time. In 2020, partisans on both sides are highly energized. </p>
<p>The good news for Democrats is that there may be more of them to mobilize in 2020 than there are Republicans. The bad news is that Republicans are <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx">united</a> behind President Trump – and ready to vote. </p>
<p>Will Democrats nominate a presidential candidate who can fire up their party’s base, too? Chances are, that will matter more than winning over the small slice of American voters who don’t identify with either party.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/partisanship-runs-deep-in-america-even-among-independents-104884">an article that originally ran on Oct. 17, 2018</a>.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1239332019-09-23T08:32:17Z2019-09-23T08:32:17ZLabour Party conference: what to expect as party debates its Brexit position and election plan<p>The Labour Party is meeting in Brighton for what many assume is a pre-election conference. On the agenda will be attempts to settle on the party’s Brexit policy and the processes it will use to select candidates for parliamentary seats.</p>
<p>Brexit will be a major point of contention, since the party leadership has been rather less keen than the membership to push a clear “Remain” position. It has been possible for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour people, until now, to coalesce around support for <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/jeremy-corbyns-referendums-which-will-he-choose/">“a referendum”</a> to “sort out this mess”. But as the parliamentary turmoil continues, and an election seems probable, Labour’s policy is now under the spotlight like never before. It needs more clarity. What is this referendum for? To provide legitimation for a newly negotiated deal or to provide an opportunity to decide again, in light of the last four years, whether to leave or to remain?</p>
<p>There are problems with both approaches, of course. If there is a lesson from the last four years, it is that referendums can cause incredible disruption. At the moment, Corbyn’s position appears to be that Labour should push on with Brexit negotiations, strike a new deal and then put that deal back to the public in a referendum. There would also be an option on the ballot to remain in the EU. </p>
<p>That has led to the obvious question – what would Labour’s position be in that referendum? Would it support the deal or remaining in the EU? Labour’s members <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/labour-members-love-corbyn-but-hate-brexit/">overwhelmingly want to remain</a> in the EU. Corbyn, so far at least, is keeping his options open.</p>
<p>Around 90 constituency Labour parties (CLPs) have <a href="https://labourlist.org/2019/09/green-new-deal-campaign-set-to-dominate-labour-conference/">put forward conference motions</a> on Brexit, the vast majority of which call on the party to back Remain. While this is fewer than the number of motions submitted for a Green New Deal, with the leadership currently refusing to publicly back remain in all circumstances, Brexit looks set to be the main point of disagreement. During conference negotiations, the CLP motions will be combined to create a single motion to be voted on at conference, so all eyes will be on what this motion looks like.</p>
<p>Pro-Remain activists and MPs want to see the party unequivocally commit to backing Remain in any future referendum, regardless of whether that referendum is about a Corbyn-negotiated Brexit deal. The position of the Liberal Democrats – to revoke Article 50 and remain in the European Union without a referendum – will have raised further concerns among these activists. Corbyn’s stated ambition is to avoid polarising this debate, but is that now even possible? Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer’s words in interviews, and whether he uses his platform speech to affect all of this, will likely be much discussed.</p>
<p>The precise wording of the conference motion will be important. Will members vote to commit the Labour Party and a Labour government to backing remain in a referendum?</p>
<p>And will Corbyn’s own role be debated? He could, for example, accept that Labour as a party will back Remain, but as prime minister he would stay neutral in the campaign, potentially also keeping a future government’s position neutral. This would be without precedent. Harold Wilson, a figure often mentioned when this topic arises, did not remain neutral in the 1975 referendum. He advocated remaining in the European Community, as it then was.</p>
<p>There is one other scenario to consider. Labour wants a referendum on any deal Boris Johnson brings forward However, while it appears unlikely at this point, if a Johnson deal were to pass parliament next month with no referendum attached, Labour would face a new dilemma: in a post-Brexit election, what would Labour’s policy on membership of the EU be?</p>
<h2>An election approaches</h2>
<p>That leaves the significant matter of preparing the party for an election. The process of candidate selection has been up in the air, something that will greatly affect the future direction of the party and any agenda it could take into government. </p>
<p>Labour’s sitting MPs who wish to stand again at the next election are currently going through the process of “trigger ballots”. Local branches are voting either to support the sitting MP or trigger a full selection process, meaning they would not automatically be put forward as the candidate in an election. They would have to stand in a contest against others to win the right to stand again.</p>
<p>This process is already generating dismay among Labour MPs, with many concerned that relatively small numbers of people can trigger full contests, even if the MP is supported by the majority of local members. Meanwhile selections for seats without an incumbent have been paused recently, with potential candidates and local members awaiting what kind of role the national party will play.</p>
<p>Conference will also be debating Labour’s agenda for government, should it win this election. Labour’s top team will want to focus on engagement with the party’s manifesto, highlighting some of the more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jun/25/the-new-left-economics-how-a-network-of-thinkers-is-transforming-capitalism">radical economic ideas</a> being put forward. It will also want to return to classic Labour issues such as NHS and education funding.</p>
<p>There will be conversations, too, about whether Labour could emerge as a party short of a majority, but large enough to lead a coalition. What does that mean for Corbyn, particularly given the suggestion that the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/13/jo-swinson-corbyn-and-johnson-are-unfit-to-lead-country">Liberal Democrats</a> are against forming a government with Labour if Corbyn is to lead it? And, if Labour is defeated at a forthcoming election, what happens next?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123933/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karl Pike is a member of the Labour Party in Tower Hamlets.</span></em></p>Members and leaders are at odds over the two biggest issues of the day. And an ambitious motion on a Green New Deal could make waves in Brighton too.Karl Pike, Teaching Associate, School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1239742019-09-22T16:40:24Z2019-09-22T16:40:24ZLabour conference: Jeremy Corbyn battles it out with members over Brexit<p>Labour’s conference in Liverpool last year was essentially about defusing a bomb that threatened to go off over Brexit. And it looks like this year will be the same.</p>
<p>That’s because there continues to be a major mismatch between what the party’s membership wants on Europe and what its leadership – Jeremy Corbyn, his (<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49785014">now slightly reduced</a>) coterie of close advisors, and a handful of powerful trade union general secretaries (most obviously Unite’s Len McCluskey) – is prepared to give them.</p>
<p>As the survey research for our new book, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Footsoldiers-Political-Party-Membership-Century/dp/1138302465">Footsoldiers: Political Party Membership in the 21st Century</a>, makes clear, Labour’s rank-and-file are overwhelmingly pro-European. Eight out of ten of them voted Remain. Three-quarters of them want a second referendum. And if one were held, nine out of ten of them would vote to stay in the EU.</p>
<p>None of this is lost on the leadership, not least because they’ve seen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/02/most-labour-members-believe-corbyn-should-back-second-brexit-vote">our research reported in the media</a>. Local constituency Labour parties (CLPs) have made their feelings clear by submitting dozens of motions for debate at conference with a heavy Remain focus. And it has made a difference. Don’t forget that Corbyn’s first response to the result of the referendum in June 2016 (after a campaign in which his efforts to persuade voters to plump for Remain can only be described as lacklustre) was to demand the triggering of Article 50 – and without a vote in parliament to do so. Now, Labour is not only adamantly against a no-deal Brexit but claims it would like to see a “People’s Vote”.</p>
<p>Yet doubts persist – and if you watch <a href="https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1175034010671734784?s=20">Corbyn’s pre-conference interview with ITV’s Joe Pike</a>, you can see why. Asked if he supports Leave or Remain he refuses to answer – eight times. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1175034010671734784"}"></div></p>
<p>Moreover, in the run-up to the Brighton conference, Corbyn has effectively attempted to preempt the party’s decision on what its Brexit policy should be by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/17/labour-final-say-brexit-boris-johnson-britain-eu">announcing it in advance</a>. He has declared that the plan is to win a general election, negotiate a new withdrawal agreement (one apparently involving a closer economic relationship with the EU) and then put that to voters in a second referendum. This referendum would include an option to remain, too. </p>
<p>Whether this convoluted stance can carry Corbyn and co. through said general election is debateable. Anyone unfortunate enough to have witnessed what happened to Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, when she tried to explain it to the audience on <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49605019/thornberry-on-brexit-i-d-negotiate-a-deal-but-campaign-against-it">Question Time</a> a few weeks ago is bound to have their doubts.</p>
<p>Emerging bloodied but unbowed from that particular car crash, Thornberry has gone on to add a new twist by asserting that Labour would support the passage through parliament of a last minute deal with the EU negotiated by Boris Johnson as long as it was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/thornberry-labour-could-back-tory-brexit-deal-in-exchange-for-referendum">made conditional on a referendum</a>. Shadow chancellor John McDonnell, however, <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/john-mcdonnell-crushes-pms-hope-20132770">has very publicly poured cold water on the idea</a>. No wonder an opinion poll released on Sunday showed over two thirds of voters thought Labour’s policy on Brexit was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/21/labour-resurgent-liberal-democrat-headache">“unlcear”</a>.</p>
<p>Quite why the leadership insists on putting its spokespeople (and presumably its members) through such agonies is not entirely obvious.</p>
<p>We often hear that it is worried about losing so-called “Labour Leave seats” if party policy strays too far towards Remain. Yet even a cursory look at the numbers suggests that (because a large majority of Labour voters in those seats voted Remain anyway) <a href="https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1128678715188289537?s=20">this fear is seriously overblown</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1128678715188289537"}"></div></p>
<p>If that is indeed the case, then the only other explanation is that the leadership really isn’t that bothered about Brexit. That might be because it hopes the Tories will take the blame if exiting the EU makes a terrible mess or it might be because it truly believes Brexit will give a Labour government greater freedom to make a success of the economy – despite that widely being considered <a href="https://www.socialeurope.eu/lexit-fallacies">a fallacy</a>. </p>
<h2>Putting it to the vote</h2>
<p>It is hardly surprising, then, that nearly 100 CLPs have submitted motions to conference on Brexit. More than 60 of these demand Labour commit to campaigning for Remain. Yet, if last year’s <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-meeting-conference-brexit-policy-second-referendum-general-election-motion-wording-delegates-a8552606.html">“compositing meeting”</a> (a process during which multiple motions are turned into an anodyne one that can be put to a vote in the conference hall without overly embarrassing the leadership) is anything to go by, they may end up with a motion that says less than they’d like.</p>
<p>But even if Labour’s Remain membership does get the kind of wording it wants, there is no guarantee that it will gain a sufficient majority (especially given union opposition) to see it go into the party’s programme and therefore make it a contender for Labour’s next manifesto. And even if that motion is sufficiently well-supported, there is no guarantee that it would subsequently make it into Labour’s election platform - not least because it may turn out to be one of two “official” statements on Brexit that emerge from Brighton this week: the NEC, Labour’s top decision making body, opted on Sunday lunchtime (via, believe it or not, a round-robin email), to support Corbyn’s line that the party will not make up its mind on whether to campaign for Remain in any referendum until after the general election. </p>
<p>But anyone therefore expecting a fatal shootout on the South Coast this week shouldn’t hold their breath. Corbyn – supposedly a very different leader of the Labour Party and one who promised to be guided by its members – will probably get away with ignoring them yet again. And he’ll do so by doing exactly what his supposedly right-wing, war-mongering, neo-liberal predecessors did: namely, use a combination of good old-fashioned bureaucratic manoeuvring and trade union muscle to ensure he gets what he wants rather than what they want.</p>
<p>And as our research in <em>Footsoldiers</em> makes plain, most Labour members are very left wing and even more socially liberal. Many joined the party precisely because “Jeremy” embodies those very values. True, their infatuation might have worn off – after all, the antisemitism stories and <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/jeremy-corbyn-has-lowest-leadership-satisfaction-rating-any-opposition-leader-1977">his truly dire poll ratings</a> have taken their toll. But most Labour members still love Corbyn. And even now, as we approach what some see as the European endgame, they may still love him more than they hate Brexit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123974/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Bale's research on party membership received funding from the ESRC. As well as teaching at QMUL, he is also Deputy Director of the ESRC's UK in a Changing Europe initiative.</span></em></p>Labour’s grassroots members and its leadership look set to clash at its Conference in Brighton. But don’t bet on the members getting Corbyn to back Remain.Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.