tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/road-7127/articlesroad – The Conversation2021-11-02T14:57:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1710242021-11-02T14:57:33Z2021-11-02T14:57:33ZCows and cars should not be conflated in climate change debates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429754/original/file-20211102-51261-1pd114c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cattle driven into the Kenyan capital Nairobi for new pasture amid a severe drought navigate through city traffic.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Maina/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With world leaders gathered for the COP26 summit in Glasgow, there is much talk of <a href="https://pastres.org/2021/10/29/climate-change-we-need-to-talk-about-methane/">methane</a> emissions and belching cows. The <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_4785">Global Methane Pledge</a>, led by the US and EU and now with many country signatories, aims to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030. This is seen as a “quick win” to reduce global warming and will have major implications for livestock production.</p>
<p>Livestock have become the villain of climate change. Some researchers claim that <a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/030a41a8-3e10-57d1-ae0c-86680a69ceea/">14.5% of all human-derived emissions come from livestock</a>, either directly or indirectly. There have been widespread calls for radical shifts in livestock production and diet globally to address climate chaos. But which livestock, where? As <a href="https://pastres.org/livestock-report/">a new report</a> I co-authored argues, it is vitally important to differentiate between production systems.</p>
<p>Not all milk and meat is the same. Extensive, often mobile, pastoral systems – of the sort commonly seen across the African continent, as well as in Asia, Latin America and Europe – have hugely different effects to contained, intensive industrial livestock production.</p>
<p>Yet, in standard narratives about diet and production shifts, all livestock are lumped in together. Cows are misleadingly equated with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/22/eu-farm-animals-produce-more-emissions-than-cars-and-vans-combined-greenpeace">polluting cars</a> and <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/02/treating-beef-like-coal-would-make-a-big-dent-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions">beef with coal</a>. The simplistic “all livestock are bad” narrative is promoted by campaign organisations, environmental celebrities, rich philanthropists and policymakers alike. Inevitably, it dominates <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/13/meat-greenhouses-gases-food-production-study">media coverage</a>. However, a much more sophisticated debate is needed.</p>
<h2>Delving into data</h2>
<p><a href="https://pastres.org/livestock-report/">Our report</a> delves into the data and highlights the problems with using aggregate statistics in assessing the impacts of livestock on the global climate. </p>
<p>Some types of livestock production, especially those using industrial systems, are certainly highly damaging to the environment. They generate significant greenhouse gas emissions and cause serious water pollution. They also add to deforestation through demand for feed and expanding grazing areas, for example. And, reducing the amount of <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/meat-supply-per-person">animal-source foods in diets</a>, whether in the global north or south, makes much sense, both for the environment and for people’s health.</p>
<p>But industrial systems are only one type of livestock production. And aggregate emission figures do not pick up the nuances of this reality. Looking across life-cycle assessments – a technique widely used to assess the impacts on climate change from different agri-food systems – we found some important <a href="https://pastres.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/infosheet-2-flaws-in-assessments.pdf">gaps and assumptions</a>. </p>
<p>One is that global assessments are overwhelmingly based on data from industrial systems. A <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">frequently quoted paper</a> looking at 38,700 farms and 1,600 processors only focused on “commercially viable” units, mostly from Europe and North America. However, not all livestock are the same, meaning that global extrapolations don’t work. </p>
<p>Research in Kenya, for example, shows how <a href="https://www.ilri.org/outcomes/science-helps-tailor-livestock-related-climate-change-mitigation-strategies-africa">assumptions about emissions</a> from African animals are inaccurate. Such livestock are smaller, have higher quality diets due to selective grazing and have physiologies adapted to their settings. They are not the same as a highly bred animal in a respiration chamber, which is where much of the data on emission factors comes from. Overall, data from extensive systems are massively under-represented. For instance, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cd5/meta">a review of food production life cycle assessments</a> showed that only 0.4% of such studies were from Africa, where extensive pastoralism is common across large areas.</p>
<p>Another issue is that most such assessments focus on emissions impacts per animal or per unit of product. This creates a distorted picture; the wider costs and benefits are not taken into account. Those in favour of industrialised systems point to the high per animal methane emission from animals eating rough, low-quality forage on open rangelands compared to the potential for improved, methane-reducing feeds in contained systems. This misses the point: a wider, more <a href="https://www.cirad.fr/en/cirad-news/news/2019/ca-vient-de-sortir/perspective-52-pastoral-landscapes-climate-change-sahel">integrated systems approach</a> must encompass all impacts, but also benefits. For instance, some forms of extensive grazing can potentially increase soil carbon stocks, adding to the already significant store of carbon in open rangelands. </p>
<p>Then there’s the fact that methane and carbon dioxide have different lifetimes in the atmosphere and are not equivalent. Methane is a short-lived but highly potent gas. Carbon dioxide sticks around in the atmosphere effectively forever. Reducing warming can be addressed in the short term by tackling methane emissions, but long term climate change needs to focus on carbon dioxide. It therefore makes a big difference how different greenhouse gases are assessed and how any “<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-a-new-way-to-assess-global-warming-potential-of-short-lived-pollutants">global warming potential</a>” is estimated. Simply put, <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20180918083629-d2wf0">cows and cars are not the same</a>.</p>
<p>It also matters what baseline is used. <a href="https://helda.helsinki.fi/bitstream/handle/10138/326549/Intensifying_pastoralism_AAM.pdf;jsessionid=C32DF3C85BE7E4FFAD3D2EC11D7EEDFE?sequence=1">Pastoral systems may not result in additional emissions from a “natural” baseline</a>. For example, in extensive systems in Africa domestic livestock replace wildlife that emit comparable amounts of greenhouse gases. By contrast, industrial systems clearly generate additional impacts, adding significant environmental costs through methane emissions from production, the importation of feed, the concentration of livestock waste and fossil fuel use in transport and sunk infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Climate justice</h2>
<p>A more rounded assessment is necessary. Extensive livestock contribute to emissions, but it’s simultaneously true that they produce multiple environmental benefits – including potentially through carbon sequestration, improving biodiversity and enhancing landscapes.</p>
<p>Animal-source foods are also <a href="https://www.gainhealth.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/gain-briefing-paper-series-4-nutrient-shortfalls-in-young-childrens-diets-and-the-role-of-affordability.pdf">vital for nutrition</a>, providing high density protein and other nutrients, especially for low-income and vulnerable populations and in places where crops cannot be produced. </p>
<p>Across the world livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, camels, yaks, llamas and more – provide income and livelihoods for many. The world’s rangelands make up over <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/114064">half the world’s land surface</a> and are home to many millions of people.</p>
<p>As countries commit to reducing methane emissions, a more sophisticated debate is urgently needed, lest <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/16913">major injustices</a> result. The danger is that, as regulations are developed, verification procedures approved and reporting systems initiated, livestock systems in Africa and elsewhere will be penalised, with major consequences for poor people’s livelihoods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Scoones receives funding from the European Research Council through an Advanced Grant for the PASTRES project (<a href="http://www.pastres.org">www.pastres.org</a>).</span></em></p>A simplistic ‘all livestock are bad’ narrative is promoted by campaigners, celebrities, philanthropists and policymakers alike. A much more sophisticated debate is needed.Ian Scoones, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1701642021-11-02T14:41:31Z2021-11-02T14:41:31ZNairobi’s new expressway may ease traffic woes – but mostly for the wealthy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429089/original/file-20211028-15-ledweg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A section of the construction site of the Nairobi Expressway Project along the Uhuru highway in Nairobi, Kenya.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Daniel Irungu</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An expressway, currently being constructed through Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, is <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/nairobi/2021-09-29-nairobi-expressway-to-be-completed-in-six-months-cs-macharia/">nearing</a> completion. The Chinese-financed toll road starts near Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in the east and ends on the western edge of the city. Urban planning expert Laji Adoyo provides insights into the role this road will play and whether it addresses the city’s challenges.</em></p>
<h2>Why is the new expressway being built?</h2>
<p>The government of Kenya is constructing the Nairobi Expressway road project. Once completed, the four-lane dual <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-10-31-state-revises-design-for-nairobi-expressway-to-leave-out-uhuru-park/">carriageway will run over 27km</a>, linking Mlolongo town in Machakos county and Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to the Nairobi-Nakuru highway. The expressway is part of the northern corridor that <a href="https://kenha.co.ke/2021/09/nairobi-expressway-2/">provides passage to 85%</a> of the cargo destined for neighbouring landlocked countries, such as Uganda, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. </p>
<p>The benefits that are expected from this expressway include improved connectivity for the transport of goods, services and people between Nairobi and the entire northern corridor. It’s also expected to ease the flow of traffic through the city, reducing congestion along Mombasa road, Uhuru highway and Waiyaki way in Nairobi city. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1451100668710772737"}"></div></p>
<p>Better traffic flow would reduce travel time through the city, enhancing Nairobi’s economic vitality. This in turn is expected to improve Kenya’s competitiveness in the East Africa region and entrench Nairobi’s position as a business hub. </p>
<h2>How will it operate?</h2>
<p>The project is a partnership between the government of Kenya and China Roads and Bridge Corporation, one of China’s state-owned companies. </p>
<p>The government of Kenya’s key functions have to do with land acquisition, relocation of services, and oversight. It is estimated that the government of Kenya spent more than <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202106150409.html">Ksh 2 billion</a> (about US$18 million) on land acquisition for the project. The China Roads and Bridge Corporation is expected to construct the road in three years. After this, the corporation will operate and maintain it for <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202109090651.html">27 years</a>. During this time it will charge and collect toll fees from vehicles using the road. </p>
<p>It is proposed that each driver would be required to pay a fee of <a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/opinion-analysis/editorials/get-the-toll-charges-on-nairobi-expressway-right-3247684">between</a> 100ksh and 1,550ksh (about US$1 and US$15), depending on the size of the car and distance travelled. </p>
<p>The idea is that the corporation will recoup its investment and make a profit before handing it over to the government of Kenya <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/ktnnews/video/2000178601/the-expressway-to-be-handed-to-kenya-in-2049-after-minting-sh-102-billion-the-big-story">by 2049</a>. It’s expected that the toll charges <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/nairobi/article/2001398914/revealed-what-you-will-pay-to-use-nairobi-expressway">will fluctuate</a> to cushion the Chinese operator from exchange rate losses. </p>
<p>Some have argued that it is entirely a government project since it is a partnership between the governments of Kenya – through the Kenya National Highways Authority (KENHA) – and China, through the China Roads and Bridge Corporation state corporation. </p>
<h2>To what extent does it address the city’s transport challenges?</h2>
<p>It will free up one of the city’s main arteries, the A8 road (Mombasa road, Uhuru highway and Waiyaki way). This road has had traffic congestion for years. </p>
<p>The economic cost of Nairobi’s traffic congestion is <a href="https://www.idiap.ch/%7Egatica/publications/Santani-mobilehci15.pdf">estimated</a> to be in the billions of Kenya shillings. It has been <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/nairobi/article/2001398914/revealed-what-you-will-pay-to-use-nairobi-expressway">observed</a> that at peak hours, it takes motorists two hours to commute from Mlolongo to Waiyaki way, a distance of about 27km. It’s expected that the expressway will drastically reduce rush-hour travel time <a href="https://uzalendonews.co.ke/expressway-nairobi-to-save-ksh-18b-in-losses-from-traffic-jams/">from</a> two hours to about 15 minutes. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://constructionreviewonline.com/news/kenya/kenya-construction-of-bus-rapid-transit-brt-system-to-begin-next-month/">planned dedication</a> of a lane on the expressway to the Bus Rapid Transport will contribute to decongestion. The expressway is also expected to significantly reduce response time to emergencies as it will have <a href="https://www.kenyanews.go.ke/residents-laud-kenhas-move-to-re-open-sections-of-msa-road/">dedicated emergency lanes</a> on either side.</p>
<p>But it’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-11/why-a-new-expressway-in-nairobi-is-a-bad-idea">been flagged</a> that the expressway is not a serious attempt to deal with congestion. This is because it’s a road for those who “are able to afford it”, a public subsidy for the rich, so to speak. </p>
<p>Walking is the dominant <a href="https://openjicareport.jica.go.jp/pdf/12307658_01.pdf">mode of transport</a> in Nairobi, accounting for 45.6% of commuters, compared to 40.7% by bus, 13.5% by private vehicle, and 0.2% by rail. These residents of the city walk because they cannot afford to pay the fare charges. </p>
<p>There are concerns, and justifiably so, that the tolls could prevent some drivers from being able to use the road. For instance, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55995229">anticipation</a> that matatus will use the expressway and pay the toll charges is speculative. It should also be noted that <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/sci-tech/article/2001406387/brt-system-begins-to-take-shape-on-superhighway">only</a> high-capacity express buses will be allowed to use the dedicated bus lanes. Matatus are minibuses – the most widely used buses – do not qualify as high-capacity buses.</p>
<p>This, coupled with the fact that the existing A8 road will stay as a free alternative to the expressway, means that motorists who cannot afford toll fees would continue using the traffic-laden A8 road. The expressway will be accessible to only a small percentage of Kenyans that use their personal vehicles or for trucks while the rest struggle with limited options. </p>
<p>This will not only worsen the city’s traffic problems, but also fuel socioeconomic divides.</p>
<h2>What else can be done to improve the city’s transport problems?</h2>
<p>Experience from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-11/why-a-new-expressway-in-nairobi-is-a-bad-idea">around the world</a> shows that building more and wider roads does not necessarily translate to reduced traffic congestion. This is likely to be the fate of the Nairobi expressway. </p>
<p>While the government has continued to focus on building wider roads to serve the <a href="https://africa.itdp.org/finding-real-solutions-to-nairobis-transport-challenges/">growing number</a> of vehicles, most commuters in Nairobi rely on walking or public transport. </p>
<p>The government also should ensure that a reliable, safe, efficient and comfortable public transport system is set in place. In addition, there must be a dedicated public transport lanes on roads. This will reduce the number of private cars on the road and decongest the existing roads network. </p>
<p>There seems to be <a href="http://www.vref.se/download/18.c4e3c7c158f45148dc61855/1481703427369/AKanyama-GCars">a lack of political will</a> to improve public transport in Nairobi city. When it comes to mobility in the city, the government seems to prioritise the needs of the wealthiest residents above all else. </p>
<p>Moreover, a few influential people often exploit the prevailing situation to make money. For instance, big stakeholders such as matatu cartels take advantage of the chaotic transport system to make money. They charge <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/counties/article/2001310701/after-michuki-rules-focus-now-turns-to-matatu-fares">exorbitant fares</a> on the various routes within Nairobi. In routes like Nairobi’s Ongata Rongai, commuters pay up to between KSH100 and KSH300 (between US$1 and US$3) for a 20km trip, yet, a trip from Nairobi to Nakuru, some 150km away, costs roughly KSH300. </p>
<p>At times, <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/counties/article/2001310701/after-michuki-rules-focus-now-turns-to-matatu-fares">fares are hiked</a> on reasons as flimsy as a change in weather, forcing commuters to spend more than what they intended to. Because of this, <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2020-09-28-matatu-investors-fear-brt-will-throw-them-out-of-business/">they resist</a> any form of improvement of the public transport system. </p>
<p>Individual rather than public interest reigns supreme in Kenya.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laji Adoyo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the government continues to focus on building wider roads, most commuters in Nairobi rely on walking or public transport.Laji Adoyo, Lecturer, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Kenyatta UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/953622018-04-25T19:14:55Z2018-04-25T19:14:55ZBudget policy check: do we need ribbon-cutting infrastructure for jobs and growth?<p><em>In this series - Budget policy checks - we look at the government’s justifications for policies likely to be in this year’s budget and measure them up against the evidence.</em></p>
<p><em>In this piece we look at the need for infrastructure projects.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>We look set for another infrastructure budget: big new projects that will, we’re told, boost growth, create jobs and tackle the pressures of our booming population. For example, the <a href="http://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/033-2018/">Turnbull government has already pledged</a> up to A$5 billion for a rail link from Melbourne Airport to its CBD.</p>
<p>Infrastructure can play an important role, but behind the rhetoric some fundamental investment principles are missing. </p>
<h2>Are investing in infrastructure and economic growth a sort of virtuous circle that feed each other?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>Through a stronger economy, you can also invest in important infrastructure that again drives stronger growth in our economy … but also delivers the infrastructure that busts the congestion in cities, that makes rural and regional roads safer.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong><em>- Treasurer Scott Morrison</em></strong></p>
<p>Yes, sometimes infrastructure spending and economic growth form a virtuous circle. In new suburbs and rapidly growing cities, infrastructure is needed to connect people to jobs and that in turn drives economic activity.</p>
<p>But we shouldn’t be fooled into thinking any spending is good spending. There are many examples where the opposite is more likely true: <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/roads-to-riches/">where poorly targeted infrastructure wastes resources and weakens economic growth</a>. </p>
<p>If we want to identify the best projects, a good place to start is our biggest cities. Big cities have a productivity advantage <a href="http://marroninstitute.nyu.edu/working-papers/commuting-and-the-productivity-of-american-cities">because they match</a> workers to jobs better and faster than smaller cities and towns. Transport infrastructure is key to this matchmaking. </p>
<p>But in many cases, the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-fake-economics-cookbook-how-to-make-bad-transport-projects-look-good-20171122-gzqd3x.html">enormous costs of construction</a> in big cities – acquiring land, disrupting traffic, and the physical challenge of constructing in densely developed places – often makes it hard to justify the incremental increases in accessibility that a project generates. </p>
<p>Instead, policies and projects targeting <a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-changing-direction-on-how-we-tax-drivers-will-cost-us-all-87931"><em>better use</em> of existing infrastructure</a> can have greater economic impacts. The trouble is, these projects usually don’t involve cutting a ribbon. </p>
<p>Changes to the way we set prices for the use of roads and public transport, for example, can help us get more out of the infrastructure we already have. Charging public transport users different amounts depending on the time of day they travel can reduce peak-period overcrowding on our trains. With much lower capital costs, policies like this often deliver a bigger bang for the buck than major new investments.</p>
<h2>Are these road and rail projects the sort of infrastructure that supports growth?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>Whether it’s the Tulla Rail or the M1 up in Queensland or indeed in my home city of Sydney around Western Sydney Rail from the airport and the road infrastructure that goes around that in particular, we are making important national investments in infrastructure that will support growth, bust congestion in our cities and make our transport – rural and regional roads – safer.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong><em>- Treasurer Scott Morrison</em></strong></p>
<p>Infrastructure undeniably plays a role in supporting the economy. But not every project will add to the productivity of our economy. </p>
<p>On the face of it, the economics of airport rail in Melbourne look thin. Infrastructure Victoria has said upgrading airport bus services should be investigated first, because at A$50-100 million it’s a much cheaper way to tackle the same problem. It has also said that the rail line <a href="http://infrastructurevictoria.com.au/sites/default/files/images/Options%20book%20-%20FINAL%20-%20December%202016.pdf">should be delivered within 15-30 years</a>. </p>
<p>The perceived urgent need for airport rail in Melbourne may stem from the slow and unreliable travel to the airport over the past 18 months. This is a byproduct of the Tullamarine Freeway widening project, which is now almost complete. Responding to a short-term pressure with a multi-billion dollar investment – in the absence of a detailed business case – is a depressing example of poor policy-making. </p>
<p>And the Treasurer’s enthusiasm for the Western Sydney airport rail is also concerning, given that <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/current-projects/western-sydney-rail-needs-scoping-study">a recent state government study</a> indicated the project wouldn’t be needed to cater for customers and workers at the airport until 2036, at the earliest. Infrastructure Australia has been clear that a <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/CorridorProtection.pdf">rail corridor, running north-south through the airport site, needs to be preserved</a> for a <em>future</em> rail line. But that is a long way from justifying billions of dollars of infrastructure that isn’t needed for nearly another 20 years. </p>
<h2>Does Australia need infrastructure to create jobs?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>Our national economic plan for jobs and growth has been getting results…A $75 billion national infrastructure investment plan that is building the runways, railways and roads Australia needs to remain competitive, and create jobs.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong><em>- Treasurer Scott Morrison</em></strong></p>
<p>At certain points in the economic cycle, infrastructure spending can help create jobs. New projects create jobs for workers involved in planning, building and deploying each project, as well as for the suppliers of equipment and materials needed as inputs. </p>
<p>And in the longer term, the Treasurer is right to say that infrastructure is essential if our cities are to remain competitive. </p>
<p>But again, context is everything. </p>
<p>Infrastructure can put people to work when there is “slack” in the labour market – when there is unemployment or underemployment, in other words. But if there is little slack in the labour market, then the workers required to get a project off the ground will be drawn from other productive activities. In that case, there may be no boost to jobs or economic growth, because one activity is merely displacing another. </p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">national unemployment currently around 5.5%</a>, there does appear to be some <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2017/jun/pdf/bu-0617-2-estimating-the-nairu-and-the-unemployment-gap.pdf">slack in the labour market right now</a>. However, firms are now finding it <a href="https://twitter.com/jacobgreber/status/988209662464962560">more difficult to access the labour they want</a>. And the slack doesn’t appear to be in the parts of the economy that would benefit most from new projects: as the RBA reports, the construction sector recently reached <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2018/feb/domestic-economic-conditions.html">its highest share of total employment since the early 1900s</a>. </p>
<h2>What’s the verdict?</h2>
<p>Eminent urban economist Ed Glaeser once said, “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2017/01/18/larry-summers-v-edward-glaeser-two-harvard-economists-debate-increased-infrastructure-investments/">if you have a focus on jobs and macroeconomic effects, it leads to infrastructure in the wrong place</a>”. Australia should focus on a project-by-project approach; that’s the only way we can be assured that investments represent the best possible use of available funds. </p>
<p>This means starting with some basics: the government should not commit to expensive new infrastructure projects until it has commissioned a detailed look at the economic impacts of the investments, and it has made public the results of that analysis. </p>
<p>That’s how infrastructure policy would be done in an ideal world. But sadly, in a pre-election budget, we can probably expect politics to triumph over policy, yet again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Australia does need infrastructure to spur growth and support jobs - that idea comes with a big “but”.Hugh Batrouney, Fellow, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/827502017-08-24T19:13:20Z2017-08-24T19:13:20ZGetting serious on roads reform is one way our political leaders can get back on track<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183075/original/file-20170823-13639-cy4ktp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The majority of working Australians drive to and from work.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Structural economic reform is hardly the stuff of epic election campaigns. But tax reform, including some form of road user charging, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/no-progress-made-in-15-years-henry/news-story/d3b78f5dd2b17a761c5fc2e3a85a28e3">is well overdue</a> for Australia. </p>
<p>Road user charging will involve a shake-up of all road-related revenues and how we pay for and use our roads and transport infrastructure. This will require federal leadership and the agreement of the states and territories. The Commonwealth’s fuel excise and the states’ and territories’ car registration fees will be affected. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">Road user charging belongs on the political agenda as the best answer for congestion management</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>The road to reform</h2>
<p>The Commonwealth’s fuel excise <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/ConsultationPaper.aspx?doc=html/publications/Papers/Consultation_Paper/section_12.htm">is obsolete</a>. Despite <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201415/FuelExcise">the reintroduction</a> of indexation, the fuel excise revenue base is steadily declining and will eventually disappear. </p>
<p>Fuel excise is obsolete because fuel-efficient and electric vehicles use less fuel. It is also unfair, because people who can afford the latest <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-21/can-electric-cars-go-the-distance-on-aussie-roads/8827926">Tesla cars</a> will <a href="http://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/pf/speeches/2016/pfs007_2016.aspx">pay nothing</a> in fuel excise. And it does not signal market demand for, or go directly back into, building and maintaining transport infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182801/original/file-20170821-4959-1gs19pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The contribution of fuel excise to road-related budget revenue is shrinking. (A$‘000s in 2015 prices)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BITRE</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Also, the fuel excise provides a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2009/02/19/incentives-compensation-bonuses-leadership_perverted_incentives.html">perverse incentive</a> by encouraging motorists with fuel-efficient cars to drive more. However, road user charging <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/incentivize">incentivises behavioural change</a> that can help <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">reduce traffic congestion</a>.</p>
<p>The typical urban worker commutes for about <a href="http://press.regus.com/australia/rush-hour-the-daily-commute-just-got-longer/">one hour</a> each work day, and time spent commuting is rising. The <a href="http://mccrindle.com.au/the-mccrindle-blog/getting-to-work-infographic">majority</a> of working Australians drive to and from work. Australians are not getting any <a href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/who-is-overweight/">healthier</a>, and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1490117">longer commuting times</a> are at least part of the problem.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-equity-got-to-do-with-health-in-a-higher-density-city-82071">What’s equity got to do with health in a higher-density city?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>If we do nothing, traffic congestion in capital cities is expected to cost <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/Australian-Infrastructure-Audit-Key-Findings.pdf">A$53.3 billion by 2031</a> – or 290% more than it did in 2011.</p>
<p>Some argue that “<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-panic-traffic-congestion-is-not-coming-for-our-cities-45154">peak car</a>” will save the day. But per-capita car ownership figures mean nothing if the number of actual cars isn’t reduced. Driverless cars may even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/self-driving-cars-traffic-congestion-2017-6">make things worse</a>. </p>
<h2>Why it’s been difficult to achieve</h2>
<p>The reality is that roads are the “<a href="http://competitionpolicyreview.gov.au/files/2015/03/Part2_final-report_online.pdf">least reformed of all infrastructure sectors</a>”. And roads, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/every-road-in-australia-should-have-tolls-says-report/news-story/e94d65a58dacfb61f4d90947dd0d704f">according to competition expert Ian Harper</a>, are the:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… only example of an infrastructure asset, where the government owns the great bulk of the asset, funded through the tax system and given away for nothing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So, why is road reform so hard?</p>
<p>Road pricing is <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/public-sector/articles/road-pricing-transport-infrastructure-funding.html">long overdue</a> and it’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">happening elsewhere</a>. But it’s as big as the GST, and it could prove to be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-08/youtube-gst-cake/4874420">just as unpalatable</a>. </p>
<p>Truckies already pay for their use of the roads, and moves are afoot to <a href="http://paulfletcher.com.au/home-m/item/1885-media-release-improved-data-transparency-to-progress-heavy-vehicle-road-reform.html">increase the charges</a> to more accurately cover the cost of the damage trucks do to the roads.</p>
<p>This is supported by the <a href="https://www.ara.net.au/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/RoadPricingReforms2010.pdf">railways</a>, which have effectively cross-subsidised trucks ever since the <a href="http://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article205442848">truckies stopped cross-subsidising them</a>. But politicians are reluctant to tackle road pricing for private cars because motorists <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/new-congestion-tax-could-hit-drivers-hard-as-experts-call-for-a-reduction-in-road-tolls-and-the-way-it-is-collected/news-story/a86f832973f572a2772575bd7375ee4a">don’t like the idea</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/trucks-are-destroying-our-roads-and-not-picking-up-the-repair-cost-79670">Trucks are destroying our roads and not picking up the repair cost</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>There has at least been some movement. Urban Infrastructure Minister Paul Fletcher <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/malcolm-turnbull-puts-microscope-on-road-rail-in-new-infrastructure-review/news-story/4ba88e3eda647c8ebc875bf4b365bc40">announced</a> in 2016 that an eminent Australian will conduct a study into the impact of road user charging for light vehicles.</p>
<h2>What reform did for Hawke and Howard</h2>
<p>The recent <a href="http://www.governanceinstitute.edu.au/magma/media/upload/publication/408_Democracy100-report-IGPA.pdf">Democracy100 event</a> at Old Parliament House was held in response to mounting dismay at the state of today’s politics. Speaking at the event, former prime ministers <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-turnbull-governments-margin-of-survival-just-got-narrower-20170818-gxz583.html">Bob Hawke and John Howard</a> recommended a bipartisan approach. Focusing on key reforms to “rejuvenate the economy”, like roads reform, would do the trick.</p>
<p>While that may sound uninspiring, Howard observed that public esteem for politicians “has fallen in a time when there’s not been major reform”.</p>
<p>Howard and Hawke are two of the top three longest-serving <a href="http://primeministers.naa.gov.au/primeministers/">prime ministers</a> in Australian history. Both are living proof that major reform agendas can win elections. Howard oversaw the introduction of the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/would-abbotts-gst-full-stop-turn-into-a-comma-17009">never-ever</a>” GST; Hawke set the stage by undoing protectionism and dragging Australia into a global market economy.</p>
<p>And what do we have to lose? It’s clear self-centred professional politics isn’t working.</p>
<p>Australians expect parliament to do the hard work of reform, instead of playing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-18/pauline-hanson-burqa-stunt-disproved-her-point/8819162">dress-up</a> and acting for the cameras. And history shows voters reward that hard work with electoral success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael de Percy is an Academic Fellow of the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis (IGPA), which was involved in the organisation of the Democracy100 event. IGPA resources some of Michael's work as a researcher at the University of Canberra. He is also a Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport - Australia, but has no official role with the organisation beyond his professional membership.</span></em></p>Australians are crying out for political leadership. One way our leaders can redeem themselves is by getting to work on a complete shake-up of how we pay for and use transport infrastructure.Michael de Percy, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/806682017-07-25T20:08:31Z2017-07-25T20:08:31ZPersonal injury insurers are at risk of crashing in the transport systems of tomorrow<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178763/original/file-20170719-31776-1en6k9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia has a series of transport injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Between 1955 and 1976, Australian private vehicle ownership <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/9309.030%20September%201976?OpenDocument">more than tripled</a>. This period produced improved population mobility. However, it also created a continuing human and financial toll generated by road trauma.</p>
<p>In response, Australia developed a series of transport injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes funded by compulsory third-party premiums attached to vehicle registrations.</p>
<p>Since then, schemes such as the TAC have played a crucial role in ensuring Australia’s transport and health systems continue to function while effectively mopping up the more than A$5 billion in annual injury costs <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiDqsbfgaHVAhWClJQKHTzjAt8QFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tac.vic.gov.au%2F__data%2Fassets%2Fpdf_file%2F0006%2F206169%2FTAC_Annual_Report_2016_web-FINAL.pdf&usg=AFQjCNEbNOxJ4PGtlEClVzdP_B21coNMAA">generated by road crashes</a>.</p>
<p>However, the time for Australia’s personal injury insurance schemes to start preparing for change is now. Here’s why.</p>
<h2>What are these schemes for?</h2>
<p>Injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes pay for emergency services, trauma and hospital care, psychological care, GP visits, medications, wage replacement, and a host of other supports to injured people and their families.</p>
<p>In some circumstances, they also allow injured road-users to sue at-fault drivers for common law damages.</p>
<p>Through continued investment in administrative efficiencies and injury prevention, schemes also attempt to keep a lid on the cost of premiums paid for by motorists. Therefore, while exact design differs between jurisdictions, broadly, each scheme promotes an emphasis on:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>maintaining reasonable cost of premiums for motorists;</p></li>
<li><p>responding to clients’ non-medical expectations of service; and</p></li>
<li><p>improving health outcomes for injured clients.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>However, achieving multiple performance goals is challenging – especially in the face of rapid external social and technological change.</p>
<p>For example, in 1986, the failure of Victoria’s Motor Accident Board to adjust to the “era of mass motor vehicle usage” brought about <a href="http://www.iscrr.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/297180/To-strike-a-balance-WorkSafe-History.pdf">its collapse</a>. At closure, the board experienced widespread fraud, provided poor support for injured people, held outstanding liabilities of $2.6 billion, and had revenue shortfalls of more than $200 per registered vehicle.</p>
<p>Similarly, the New South Wales government recently <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjc6LnIgqHVAhXBmpQKHZHXCY0QFggkMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sira.nsw.gov.au%2F__data%2Fassets%2Fpdf_file%2F0018%2F95400%2FCTP-Reform-options-paper-final.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGPSFdp4Rx-4quT7KrqB3iFOR1F4w">invited comment</a> on the redesign of its compulsory third-party insurance scheme. It cited significant challenges including increased injury claim volumes, fraudulent and exaggerated claims, inefficient distribution of funds to injured people, and lengthy claim resolution processes.</p>
<p>NSW is attempting to redesign its scheme to optimise affordability, health outcomes, and system responsiveness in the face of an uncertain, dynamic and complex transportation and legal environment.</p>
<p>As these examples illustrate, schemes must have confidence in predicting levels of road trauma produced by the transport system, and the costs of rehabilitation and common law cases associated with claims.</p>
<p>Against this, expected revenue gathered from insurance premiums and investment returns must be balanced. However, the predictability of these equations may be about to change radically.</p>
<h2>The need for change</h2>
<p>Australia’s transport system finds itself on the precipice of a technological and social revolution. The combined rise of <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-must-learn-trust-and-cooperation-79484">autonomous vehicles</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-love-with-uber-and-airbnb-you-might-have-disruption-fever-49592">sharing economy</a> is coalescing into a potentially positive – yet uncertain – future for transport system design.</p>
<p>In turn, this should ring alarm bells for injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes whose operational models reflect current, rather than future, transport system structures. The former are based on human drivers, private car use, private car ownership, registration-linked premium collection, and personal liability for the consequences of road crashes.</p>
<p>In future, though, there may be the introduction of autonomous vehicles not “driven” by owners or no longer “owned” by individuals at all. This could lead to a reduction in the total vehicle road-going fleet, and a decrease in the amount compulsory third-party premium revenues. </p>
<p>Finally, this could lead to the hiking of premiums for those left in the system without access to autonomous vehicles. These would potentially be people on low-incomes or motorcycles, creating a virtually uninsurable “self-driving” population.</p>
<p>And, in the case of common law damages, who would be the target of litigation? The manufacturer? The autonomous vehicle user?</p>
<p>It is hard to imagine users agreeing to accept liability on behalf of an autonomous vehicle manufacturer any more than you would take on risk for your taxi driver.</p>
<p>However, autonomous vehicles are often hailed for their <a href="http://bigthink.com/ideafeed/googles-self-driving-car-is-ridiculously-safe">potential safety benefits</a> – which may yet prove correct. If a future containing autonomous vehicles no longer contains road crashes, then personal injury insurers may no longer be required. But the road to that utopia contains many twists and turns, not all of which we can foresee.</p>
<p>What we do know is that around 1,300 people still die, and tens of thousands more are injured, on Australian roads <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx">every year</a>. Australians pay around $700 per vehicle per year to ensure their medical bills and rehabilitation costs will be looked after in the event of a crash. </p>
<p>It is unclear how autonomous vehicles will reshape the transportation sector. It is therefore unclear how this will affect the operational model of the multi-billion-dollar personal injury insurance industry that underpins it. But if schemes cannot adapt to the transition, the functionality of the whole transport system is at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s time for Australia’s personal injury insurance schemes to start preparing for change.Jason Thompson, Senior Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781932017-06-02T13:13:00Z2017-06-02T13:13:00ZHere’s what to look out for when politicians promise to spend big on infrastructure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172044/original/file-20170602-20569-1eegmsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wsdot/8106706563/sizes/l">WSDOT/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In moments of fierce political competition, there’s one topic where most candidates find common ground – and that’s infrastructure spending. Pledges to spend more on transport, energy, water, waste and telecommunications systems are seen as vote winners in democracies across the globe. </p>
<p>In the United States, Donald Trump promised to deliver a <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/334741-trump-lays-out-1t-infrastructure-vision-in-budget-request">trillion-dollar infrastructure plan</a>. And, in the UK general election campaign, all major parties made <a href="http://www.cms-lawnow.com/ealerts/2017/05/infrastructure-pledges-in-the-2017-general-election-manifestos?cc_lang=en&ec_as=B6694D7C2CAA422A852306E4EF9BBF5D">substantial commitments for infrastructure</a> in their manifestos. Even the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-our-world-leaders-cling-to-the-dismal-politics-of-economic-austerity-7125">far-reaching austerity policies</a> favoured by Western governments across the globe have failed to put a dent in <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/10/biggest-rail-investment-in-uk-since-victorian-age-safeguards-100/">infrastructure spending</a>. </p>
<p>But, while parties across the political spectrum readily commit to big-budget projects, it can be difficult for voters to know what outcomes to expect from the billions pledged toward infrastructure. Here are some tips to help you make sense of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-35773758">sweeping claims</a> and <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-budget-infrastructure-idUKKBN13I1CI">enormous pledges</a> that politicians are wont to make regarding infrastructure, whenever a poll approaches. </p>
<h2>Sensible spending requires a plan</h2>
<p>Governments as far apart as the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-15917193/chancellor-george-osborne-announces-infrastructure-plan">UK</a>, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/budget-2017/turnbull-to-embark-on-ambitious-infrastructure-spending-program/news-story/f24074775defffc673550ab13e825f3d">Australia</a> and <a href="http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=99050">New Zealand</a> promote themselves based on their big infrastructure budgets. But not all investments are the same – and a big budget doesn’t guarantee better value for the public. Infrastructure spending can be broadly divided into capital expenditure (building new things), operations (running what we already have) and maintenance (repairing what we already have). Getting value from infrastructure requires good decisions across all three categories.</p>
<p>Politicians love building new infrastructure: ribbon-cutting, high-vis vests and hard hats are a PR opportunity which few can resist. Photo-ops aside though, politicians may also favour big projects over smaller ones because <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2017/may/19/crossrail-hs2-hinkley-point-infrastructure-measuring-success-megaprojects?CMP=ema-1704&CMP=">it’s easier</a> to overcome opposition and see them through to fruition. Yet investments in big-ticket infrastructure projects should be made with clear goals in mind. Unless an investment addresses a clear public need, it can easily result in a white elephant. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172034/original/file-20170602-20608-i7nsdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Governing in style: former UK prime minister David Cameron touring London’s Crossrail.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/11979936123/sizes/l">The Prime Minister's Office/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the rationale for the UK’s HS2 – a high-speed rail link between London and northern England – has <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/10/high-speed-rail">changed several times</a> throughout its planning phase, suggesting that it may be a project searching for a problem to solve. What’s more, the project’s ability to regenerate the country’s north (one of it’s key selling points) may depend on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/northern-powerhouse-to-get-556m-boost-amid-warnings-of-east-west-divide">complementary investments</a> across the region, in addition to the rail link. Critics of the project claim it could be a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2016/sep/15/think-hinkley-is-an-expensive-white-elephant-not-compared-with-hs2">costly mistake</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172046/original/file-20170602-20596-1782ry5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">East London Line: old and new.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wirewiping/4557616883/sizes/o/">wirewiping/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Spending on maintenance, or changing how you use existing infrastructure – while less flashy – can be just as effective. For example, <a href="http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/tran.2007.160.3.101">re-franchising and extending the East London Line</a> into the London overground network dramatically changed transport provision in the area. The low-frequency commuter service was transformed into a high-quality local service by linking together two existing lines with higher frequencies, improving trains and upgrading stations. Huge value was created by changing how the line was operated, rather than building a completely new one. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172037/original/file-20170602-20605-qi7wst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Health hazard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/hz536n/27957815695/sizes/l">hz536n/George Thomas/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, if maintenance spending is cut when budgets are tight, systems can degrade faster and fail earlier. The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/01/13/flints-water-crisis-highlights-need-for-infrastructure-investment-and-innovation/">2016 water crisis</a> in Flint, Michigan is a prominent example of this. Cost-cutting led the city to switch the water supply to the Flint River in 2014. The river water was more corrosive – and a combination of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/06/flint-water-crisis-lead-pipes-infrastructure-cost">deteriorating infrastructure networks</a> and poor monitoring of water quality led to <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/21/health/flint-water-mona-hanna-attish/">dangerously high concentrations of lead</a> in the city’s water supply.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure investment ≠ growth</h2>
<p>Since the 1980s, governments worldwide have relied on the faulty assumption that <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304393289900470">infrastructure investment stimulates economic growth</a>. The problem with this is that you can’t easily detect cause and effect – so it’s difficult to tell whether large-scale infrastructure investment actually causes growth. Statistical <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046213000537">analysis of empirical studies</a> between 1990 and 2012 found that, on average, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2012/jan/06/correlation-causation">the correlation</a> between investment and growth was positive but small – and highly variable. The wisdom of making public investment decisions based on such evidence is questionable.</p>
<p>Instead, new research suggests that the link between infrastructure investment and growth actually <a href="http://voxeu.org/article/government-quality-and-returns-infrastructure-investment">hinges on the quality of government</a>. Government quality is determined by several measures, including transparency, appropriate use of evidence and expertise and robust processes within institutions responsible for infrastructure investment. Data from EU regions showed that improvements in local roads was only connected to growth where government quality was higher. This strongly supports the case that it’s not how much you spend, it’s how you spend it.</p>
<h2>Better pledges offer real results</h2>
<p>To truly communicate the value of infrastructure spending, politicians should explain (and you should ask) how it will deliver real-world outcomes – say, by improving your daily commute to work. Or – even better – how it will improve the commute of the person who makes your coffee or cleans your office. After all, travelling to work tends to <a href="https://www.trustforlondon.org.uk/news-and-events/news-and-comments/travel-costs-hitting-outer-londons-low-paid-workers/">be more expensive, and take longer</a> for low-income workers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172035/original/file-20170602-20608-107lcvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bit of a drag.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/misterwindupbird/4781127639/sizes/l">Mister Wind-up Bird/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These days, one of the most important outcomes to consider is the impact that infrastructure has on the environment. To address climate change, sustainability should be a priority in any infrastructure policy. It’s important to know if energy is coming from low-carbon sources, and if new investments give people a chance to switch to public transport, walking or cycling, or promote the use of electric or low-emission vehicles. </p>
<h2>Cities are a special case</h2>
<p>In cities, infrastructure investment is affected by one issue in particular: if the property market is driven by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/money/how-speculation-shaped-the-housing-market-a7229551.html">speculative investment</a> without proper provisions for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/29/london-mayor-sadiq-khan-35-affordable-homes-target-deal-developers">affordable housing</a>, infrastructure improvements, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/23/crossrail-1-how-to-get-rich-quick-as-house-prices-speed-up-along/">particularly transport</a>, are likely to fuel that speculation even further. Those who benefit from better infrastructure will be real estate developers and any buyers who haven’t already been priced out of the market. If housing policy does not aim for equality, it is hard to guarantee that the benefits of urban infrastructure investment will be fairly distributed. </p>
<p>Infrastructure is often talked about in terms of the great feats of engineering such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/04/story-cities-14-london-great-stink-river-thames-joseph-bazalgette-sewage-system">Bazalgette’s sewer system</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04b7h1w">underground railway systems</a>. While advances in engineering are impressive, the political importance of infrastructure projects lies in what purpose they serve – whether it is for the benefit of public health, getting to work or school, or reliable access to energy and telecommunications. </p>
<p>So, the next time politicians promise to spend big on infrastructure, it’s important to ask how it will improve quality of life, support economic development and maintain and operate the vital infrastructure we already have – as well as funding shiny new projects.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny McArthur is affiliated with Hoxton Citizens. She has previously received research funding from Auckland Council, and has formerly worked as a consultant for Auckland Council, Auckland Transport and New Zealand Transport Agency.</span></em></p>Hey big spender – what will your project actually do for the public?Jenny McArthur, Postdoctoral Research Associate, City Leadership Laboratory: Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/556202016-03-15T19:09:19Z2016-03-15T19:09:19ZTransport outlook: larger companies will survive global economic downturn and slowdown in mining<p><em>It’s reporting season, and over the past few weeks some of Australia’s biggest companies have been releasing information on how they’re travelling. These reports reflect key themes of how things are going in key sectors of the economy. Over the coming days we’re going to report on the results a handful of major companies in key sectors, transport, construction, retail, mining, insurance and banking. Today we look at the transport sector.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>A slowdown in the global economy and a reduced amount of traffic from Australia’s mines are hitting two of the largest companies in the transport and logistics sector, Aurizon and Asciano. However, because the Federal Government is still investing in the coal mining projects that feed the transport sector, larger companies such as these two (with more than 10 percent of the market share) will be able to survive. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aurizon.com.au/">Aurizon</a> is the largest coal transporter in Australia, operating in Queensland and the Hunter Valley (NSW). It also operates and manages approximately 2,300 km of rail tracks across Queensland. <a href="http://asciano.com.au/">Asciano</a> also owns and operates a range of transport infrastructure including container terminals in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Fremantle, and other ports across Australia. It also owns rail freight business Pacific National which is one of the two dominant national rail providers. </p>
<p>Aurizon has a challenging outlook for the next few years. This is especially because its coal and iron ore haulage division will experience a decrease in traffic due to the closure of mine sites such as, Yancoal’s Donaldson mine in the Hunter Valley and Peabody’s Wilkie Creek mine near Dalby (QLD), resulting in less revenue.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.aurizon.com.au/%7E/media/aurizon/files/investors/documents%20and%20webcasts/2016/interim%20results/hyr%202016%20aurizon%20hy%20report.ashx">company’s 2016 half yearly results</a> its CEO, Lance Hockridge, flagged more job cuts and deeper cost cutting as more write downs were recorded on its involvement in the <a href="http://www.aquilaresources.com.au/projects">Aquila Resources Project</a>. Aurizon was an co-investor in the development of projects in the West Pilbara in WA (iron ore), Eagle Downs in QLD (coal) and some South African manganese assets. The project has now been halted because, due to sustained low coal and iron ore prices, the project is no longer viable, resulting in total write offs for Aurizon of $426 million. </p>
<p>The only positive outlook is for the 2,300 km rail network, which is Australia’s largest coal export network, delivering nearly two-thirds of group earnings for Aurizon over the years. The company’s <a href="http://www.aurizon.com.au/investors/documents-and-webcasts/2016">strategy of keeping to rail clients</a> who are well established international businesses, enables it to survive a long-term slump in the coal price. Combined with its focus on cost containment (helped by lower fuel costs) it remains resilient. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113975/original/image-20160307-3860-1fe1xyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>When Asciano published its <a href="http://asciano.com.au/investors/announcements/1156/download">half yearly results</a> its CEO John Mullen commented that the economic outlook was for a flat or slightly positive growth for volumes in the container terminals as well as in intermodal transport (freight moved by rail). </p>
<p>Mr Mullen said that the decline in the West Australian economy and resource project work translates into less revenue from these sources. For the Pacific National division he noted that strong volume growth in the transport of Queensland coal was offset by not as much volumes in other areas.</p>
<p>Asciano has just confirmed a $9.05 billion combined take-over bid by Canadian owned infrastructure investor <a href="http://www.brookfieldinfrastructure.com/">Brookfield Infrastructure Partners</a> and <a href="http://www.qube.com.au">Qube Holdings</a>, an Australian owned company established in 2010. </p>
<p>Initially each company (in conjunction with a number of overseas investors) made a stand alone offer for Asciano. However after high level talks between the parties, it was decided to jointly lob an all cash bid of $9.28 per Asciano share which is <a href="http://www.asciano.com.au/investors/announcements/1144/download">likely to be accepted by the Asciano board</a> (subject to Foreign Investment Review Board and Australian Competition and Consumer Commission approval).</p>
<p>This shows that there is still continued interest by global investors in transport and logistics businesses in Australia. They see a mature and steady market with little sovereign risk and the ability to park their money safely where it is able to earn a reasonable return.</p>
<p>The transport sector in Australia, and globally, is struggling with a slow down in economic growth. Container volumes trough Australian ports only grew 2% in calendar year 2015. Export coal volumes through Australian ports <a href="http://www.bofaml.com/en-us/content/apac-asia-pacific">were down 0.9% for the fiscal year till the end of February</a>. A slow down in growth means less goods to transport, meaning less revenue for transport companies. </p>
<p>The long term outlook for the haulage and export of coal in Australia is difficult to predict, as <a href="http://www.bofaml.com/en-us/content/apac-asia-pacific.html">26% of mines which Aurizon services</a> are currently unprofitable, this number could increase if the AUD/USD exchange rate improves. Fortunately Australia is able to supply quality coal at a competitive cost in the global market, due lower shipping costs to its markets in Asia, and this may assist mines and haulage companies in being able to maintain their market share.</p>
<p>The global growth outlook for container volumes has also slowed recently to <a href="http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-11-30/news/68661299_1_maersk-line-service-centres-indian-market">approximately 1% to 3% per year</a> (previously in excess of 5% per annum). The Australian container market can expect similar subdued growth figures.</p>
<p>The Federal Government still has a positive long-term outlook for coal, as was reinforced by Resources Minister Josh Frydenberg <a href="http://www.joshfrydenberg.com.au/guest/SpeechesDetails.aspx?id=356">at a National Press Club lunch</a> where he indicated a rising demand for coal in India. To demonstrate this, both the Federal Government and the Queensland Government have thrown their support behind the proposed <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/queensland-labor-backs-adanis-carmichael-coal-project-20150701-gi2gju.html">Adani Group’s Carmichael coal mine project</a> in Queensland. </p>
<p>Aurizon and Asciano (annual turnover each of approximately $4 billion) are large players in the Australian transport and logistics sector, which accounts for 15% of GDP and generated revenue of approximately $200 billion in 2014. The companies will be able to ride out the global economic downturn for the next few years with stringent cost control and reduced capital expenditure to be the order of the day. However some of the the smaller players might find the going tough and exit the industry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter van Duyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>International investors competing for a stake and the Federal Government’s positive outlook for mining are both good signs for the largest companies in the transport sector.Peter van Duyn, Maritime Logistics Expert, Institute for Supply Chain and Logistics , Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/451542015-07-26T20:14:40Z2015-07-26T20:14:40ZDon’t panic! Traffic congestion is not coming for our cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89609/original/image-20150724-3628-146rz5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While there may be bad congestion in parts of Australia's cities now, data suggest that car use has peaked. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottdavies/3604811099/">Scott Davies/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a new fear on the block. Not just ISIS, home invasions, wind turbines and the budget deficit, but now we must fear … traffic congestion.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/australian-infrastructure-audit.aspx">Infrastructure Australia report</a> on the future needs of our cities emphasises the growing problem of urban traffic congestion all over the country. It is echoed by the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/soac/">State of Australian Cities</a> report.</p>
<p>Congestion, it warns, will overwhelm our futures, making them unlivable, uneconomic and ungovernable as we fight for every piece of road space.</p>
<p>But do we have to accept that congestion trends will overwhelm us? Is it really right to fear congestion?</p>
<h2>The fear</h2>
<p>According to the IA report travel times are going to increase by at least 20%. The total cost of such congestion will increase from A$13.7 billion a year to A$53.3 billion by 2031, an increase of nearly three times. The loss of time will apparently cripple us.</p>
<p>The public policy reaction to fear is to jettison economic analysis and throw money at it. No benefit-cost ratio is needed as we need to act now or it will overwhelm us. Kneejerk reactions like this are usually regretted in hindsight but at the time we have no choice, it must be done.</p>
<p>In this climate of congestion-fear big roads are not being assessed, just announced. The congestion peril is coming. We must honour the Abbott government’s election commitments to around A$40 billion of high-capacity roads such as the East-West Link in Melbourne (now discredited and dropped by the Victorian Government), the Connex West system in Sydney (causing similar pain with communities subject to its impact) and most recently the Perth Freight Link (which looms as the biggest election issue facing the Barnett government that never actually wanted it). All of these roads have benefit cost ratios that make them very questionable.</p>
<p>Long-term plans are being drawn out of old cupboards for road projects dreamed up in the 1960s – like a plan to build a 10-km tunnel under Perth’s Swan river to link the city’s leafy western suburbs with the similarly well-heeled area around Applecross. Good luck with that one.</p>
<h2>Peak car</h2>
<p>The congestion trends being used to scare us are not based on actual data but on projections. They come from a model that is now discredited. In reality Australian cities <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">peaked in car use</a> per person <a href="http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=183183&local_base=GEN01-ERA02">in 2004</a>, like all developed cities across the globe. </p>
<p>The chart below shows that peak car occurred in all Australian cities, regardless of their level of congestion as Canberra, Hobart and Darwin also peaked.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peak car use in Australian cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Newman and Kenworthy, 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around the world there is a new dynamic in our cities as the young and wealthy are moving back into cities where they do not need to use a car and they are preferring fast trains and buses over traffic wherever they can. </p>
<p>Rail patronage is booming way beyond predictions as the speed of rail leaves traffic behind. The table below shows the relative speed of public transport (bus and rail) which is gaining but still loses to traffic, and rail to traffic which is now <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">beating the traffic</a> in all cities in our global sample.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparative Speeds of public transport (bus and rail) to traffic and also rail to traffic in global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">Newman & Kenworthy 2015</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predicting the traffic</h2>
<p>For decades the transport planning profession has used what is known as the Four Step model to predict traffic and hence provide road capacity. It does not suggest any other options than increasing road capacity such as public transport or land use changes that reduce the need to travel. </p>
<p>It has been put aside by most European cities who quickly saw what it did to rip the heart out of American cities. Despite its obvious simplicity it remains one of the modernist tools that are used to explain the future of cities. Most of all it is a tool to create congestion-fear. </p>
<p>But the Four Step model now has revealed one major failing: it assumes that as wealth rises then car ownership and car use will also rise. As the data above suggest if we look to the future we can confidently predict that wealth will rise but we cannot predict that this will automatically mean more car use. They are now decoupling.</p>
<p>The young and the wealthy are buying locations where car dependence is minimised and where sustainable transport options are easily available. Freedom and connection is now based on smart phones and social media and these are easier to use where you can walk, cycle or use a bus and train.</p>
<p>In the US the cities that are decoupling GDP from car use the most are the cities which have invested in rail, such as Washington DC and Portland, as you can see in the chart below. In cities that are emphasising sustainable transport modes the economic benefits are <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Triumph-City-Greatest-Invention-Healthier/dp/0143120549">increasingly being demonstrated</a> (see also the <a href="http://www.creativeclass.com/richard_florida/books/the_great_reset">book</a> and <a href="http://www.citylab.com/work/2012/11/cities-denser-cores-do-better/3911/">this article</a> by urban theorist and professor at University of Toronto Richard Florida) as the knowledge economy requires dense centres and spatially efficient modes - walking, cycling and rail transit.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Decoupling wealth from car use in Washington DC and Portland, Oregon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Newman and Kenworthy, 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This global trend is also not just a phenomenon of wealthy cities. Rail projects are dominating the transport agenda of Chinese cities (building metros in 82 cities) and Indian cities (51 cities are building metros now since Prime Minister Modi <a href="http://www.sustainablecitiescollective.com/david-thorpe/281501/indias-2014-budget-promises-cash-100-smart-cities-metros-much-more">declared</a> any city over a million needs quality transit).</p>
<p>Even if we were faced with a mountain of traffic congestion we should not be building high capacity roads as they are no longer working to deliver the transport outcomes once expected. The Texas Transportation Institute <a href="http://mobility.tamu.edu/">has compared</a> miles of freeway against delay in the top 20 American cities and found no correlation, as you can see in the chart below.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Freeways and delay in American cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Information</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/documents/foot-traffic-ahead.pdf">latest data</a> on American cities shows that the top six most walkable cities have 38% higher walkability. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Cities-People-Jan-Gehl/dp/159726573X">Australian cities</a> have been showing this in their city centres as well (Gehl, 2011). This is now the real competitive edge attracting capital for the knowledge economy and to retain the young talent. This is how we should be facing the future not quivering in fear about congestion.</p>
<p>It’s time to change our traffic prediction models.</p>
<p>It’s time to support global trends towards transit, walkability and urban regeneration.</p>
<p>It’s time to drop the big road fetish.</p>
<p>It’s time to stop fear of congestion as the core issue facing the future of our cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a new fear on the block … traffic congestion. But do we have to accept that congestion trends will overwhelm us? Is it really right to fear congestion?Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/180842013-09-12T20:46:11Z2013-09-12T20:46:11ZInfrastructure prime minister must face Chinese elephant in room<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31162/original/whq6gvzf-1378876038.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C998%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both the Labor and Liberals see infrastructure as a crucial economic driver; but Chinese investment in this area has been politicised.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tony Abbott wants to be known as the infrastructure prime minister. He could be remembered for building roads and scrapping high-speed rail. But the role of Chinese finance and technical expertise in infrastructure provision is the elephant in the room. </p>
<p>The Abbott government must manage an increasingly political debate about “freeing up” international trade and “protecting Australians” from foreign investment. A cultural politics is taking shape around Chinese foreign investment in Australia.</p>
<p>With a cooling in Australia’s export mining sector, infrastructure is being viewed - again - as a key sector for stimulating economic activity in Australia. Foreign investment decisions are urgent economic and urban policy issues. </p>
<h2>Recent history reveals</h2>
<p>Just before the 2013 federal election, an ambitious China-based infrastructure company proposed to build the M4 East motorway, in exchange for the development rights of more than 150 hectares of state-owned land along the Central Station to Strathfield Station rail corridor in Sydney. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://images.smh.com.au/file/2013/06/28/4529797/2013%252005%252015%2520AspireSYDNEY%2520Project%2520Document%2520001%2520-%2520EasyView.pdf">Aspire Sydney proposal</a> signalled a turning point in Chinese/Australian infrastructure financing and technical knowledge relations. At no cost to the state Liberal government, it seemed like a win-win for all parties. </p>
<p>The Chinese developers were right in assuming that the then federal Labor government was seeking to attract Chinese capital, perhaps even Chinese technical expertise. But the outsourcing of large-scale infrastructure financing and manufacture to China runs counter to the government aim of using large infrastructure projects as a local economic stimulus. </p>
<p>In 2010 the Federal Labor Government relaxed the foreign investment rules through the Foreign Investment Review Board. </p>
<p>In 2011, the Victorian premier Ted Baillieu was forced to “<a href="http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/international/chinese-investment-important-for-australian-property-baillieu/2011092551670">allay fears about the impact of increasing Chinese investment in Australia</a>”. He argued, the Foreign Investment Review Board will “<a href="http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/international/chinese-investment-important-for-australian-property-baillieu/2011092551670">keep an eye on our strategic interests</a>”.</p>
<p>John Brumby – also a former Victorian premier and director of Huawei Australia – encouraged Australians to take a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/chinese-investment-an-opportunity-not-a-threat/story-e6frg9if-1226115493023">pragmatic rather than a protectionist</a> view toward China. “China’s investment in Australia must be viewed as an opportunity, not a threat,” he said.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.billheffernan.com.au/Media/LatestNews/tabid/87/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/459/Ownership-reform-plan.aspx">Senators</a> have campaigned against foreign intervention by state-owned entities. Abbott, as the then-federal opposition leader, stated he would “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/foreign-control-of-business-not-in-our-interests-says-tony-abbott/story-fn59nm2j-1226434287768">seek to engage rather than contain China</a>”, but would restrict “investments by state-owned companies in Australia”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31168/original/d99brmry-1378877624.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Asian developers are experienced managers of urban change, but Australia’s relationship with China is contentious.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cultural politics</h2>
<p>These issues remain highly politicised because both sides of government see infrastructure as a crucial driver of economic growth but Chinese investors will be increasingly active in Australian markets. </p>
<p>So how will Abbott respond to the cultural policies that surround Chinese investment in road or rail infrastructure? </p>
<p>The provision of large-scale infrastructure, such as roads and rail, has important local economic stimulus dimensions. Understanding this dimension of infrastructure provision is important. </p>
<p>Securing Asian financial and technical capacities was a key aim in the Labor government’s <a href="http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/white-paper">Australia in the Asian Century</a> white paper. The white paper set out a clear strategy for strengthening Australia’s social and economic ties with many Asian countries. </p>
<p>Read in conjunction with their <a href="http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/mcu/files/Our_Cities_National_Urban_Policy_Paper_2011.pdf"><em>Our Cities, Our Future: A national urban policy for a productive sustainable and liveable future</em></a>, the political and urban policy messages were clear. </p>
<p>The Labor government was set to actively pursue Asian capital and technical capacities for large infrastructure projects in Australia. Large Asian-based property development companies are now well-established in the Australia infrastructure sectors.</p>
<p>Should the infrastructure prime minister be concerned about this? </p>
<h2>Chinese development</h2>
<p>In technical and financial terms, no. Asian developers are experienced managers of urban change. The shift in political and economic power from Europe and the US toward China has introduced changes in city formation that is unprecedented in human history. </p>
<p>When the People’s Republic of China was established in 1949, only 10% of the national population lived in cities. By 1978, at a time of the major market reforms, that figure had only reached 20%. </p>
<p>In the last 35 years China has implemented an uncompromising urbanisation process by adding 400 new cities, with millions of people moved from their historically agrarian communities into new urban environments. </p>
<p>Professor of Planning at University College London,<a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=ayCLsk_xOHkC&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Urban+development+in+post-reform+China:+State,+market,+and+space&ots=aTkEBidE3X&sig=T2p0EIhJfgY3KU9Ez7a__-ek0Wk#v=onepage&q=Urban%20development%20in%20post-reform%20China%3A%20State%2C%20market%2C%20and%20space&f=false">Fulong Wu</a> argues that the path to the market and urban change for China has been one of state-led infrastructure development. The provision of public infrastructure by the state through the market was as much about stimulating local economies and creating new markets as it is about the provision of infrastructure. </p>
<p>Australian governments and the Australian population, like China, are highly protectionist when it comes to regulating global market forces in relation to their local economic, employment and political interests. The NSW Barry O'Farrell-led government rejected the Aspire Sydney proposal. </p>
<p>Instead, the Coalition government released costings, following the elections, which indicate that Abbott will fast-track the $13 billion WestConnex motorway; <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/fast-lane-for-westconnex-20130908-2te24.html">$250 million of federal government funds</a> have been promised to the state government by June next year. </p>
<p>Abbott is silent about how the Coalition will regulate Chinese finance and expertise in Australian infrastructure projects. What remains unresolved is how Abbott will deal with the cultural politics that underlie liberalising Australia’s commercial relationships with China and local resistance to increasing foreign involvement.</p>
<h2>East meets West</h2>
<p>“Australia is a country,” writes Martin Jacques in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/When-China-Rules-World-Western/dp/0143118005">When China rules the world</a>, “that prides itself on its Anglo-Saxon identity – notwithstanding its geographical location – and its Western orientation”. </p>
<p>Expressions of this identity include the long-standing hostility to non-white immigration. Or the backlash against the state-owned Chinese mining company Chinalco’s desire to purchase stakes in the debt-ridden, but quintessentially British-Australian, Rio Tinto. </p>
<p>Infrastructure projects that include Chinese capital and technical expertise are a hard political sell for state and federal governments in Australia. </p>
<p>Where will Abbott, the prime minister of infrastructure, stand on Chinese foreign investment into road and rail?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dallas Rogers receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)</span></em></p>Tony Abbott wants to be known as the infrastructure prime minister. He could be remembered for building roads and scrapping high-speed rail. But the role of Chinese finance and technical expertise in infrastructure…Dallas Rogers, Research Fellow - Urban Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.