tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/social-security-1564/articlesSocial security – The Conversation2024-01-29T12:51:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2220082024-01-29T12:51:04Z2024-01-29T12:51:04ZA single person on universal credit now receives 20% less than what it costs just to eat and keep warm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571436/original/file-20240125-19-xbkvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/opened-white-kitchen-cabinet-empty-shelf-253968919">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s income safety net is in tatters. </p>
<p>In principle, anyone without income can escape destitution by claiming universal credit or, if above pension age, pension credit. In reality, the value of working-age benefits <a href="https://theconversation.com/austerity-gutted-the-welfare-state-preserving-benefits-now-cant-make-up-for-that-193360">has fallen</a> to such a low level relative to need that they can fail to meet the most basic requirements of daily life. </p>
<p>Worse still, the majority of people without earnings will have to live on even less than these inadequate standard entitlements, for example because they exceed the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/benefit-cap">benefit cap</a>, because a family has <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claiming-benefits-for-2-or-more-children">more</a> than two children or because the Department for Work and Pensions <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2023-0166/CDP-2023-0166.pdf">deducts money</a> to repay loans, often taken out to stay afloat while waiting for universal credit to start.</p>
<p>The longstanding problem with the system is that it doesn’t systematically cater for need. There is no single measure of subsistence. </p>
<p>I recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/21/gordon-brown-urges-overhaul-benefits-system-study-crisis">compiled</a> a report for the <a href="https://www.financialfairness.org.uk/">Financial Fairness Trust</a>, in which <a href="https://www.financialfairness.org.uk/en/media-centre/media-centre-news-article/safety-net-briefing-2">I calculated</a> the value of benefits relative to two key essentials of life: food and energy. My analysis shows a unemployed single adult now needs 20% more than they receive in benefits to cover even their most basic costs.</p>
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<img alt="Cars and people in the snow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571446/original/file-20240125-17-rov71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Minimum household requirements cover food and domestic energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/birmingham-united-kingdom-march-02-2018-1063876163">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Meeting food and energy costs</h2>
<p>An unemployed single adult on universal credit currently gets £84.80 a week to live on (not including rent). <a href="https://www.lboro.ac.uk/research/crsp/minimum-income-standard/">Research</a> on minimum household requirements shows, however, that in order to eat healthily in a warm home, a single person needs £104 for food and domestic energy alone. </p>
<p>Receiving 20% less than this basic minimum means people have to cut back drastically not just on food and energy but also on meeting many other needs – including clothing, travel, basic toiletries and household goods. </p>
<p>On average, households in the UK allocate just 20% of their income to food and energy in the home. And yet, even before the cuts the government started making to benefit levels from 2013, a single person needed to spend an unrealistic 73% of their benefits to meet these food and energy costs. </p>
<p>My calculation shows that, one decade on, this figure has now risen to over 120%. This makes a mockery of the idea that benefit levels are adequate for even the most frugal of lives. </p>
<h2>Low for years and getting worse</h2>
<p>After the second world war, the “national assistance” benefit was set to cover average working-class spending on some basic items. Since then, minimum support levels have mainly been uprated only by the general level of inflation, and not always in a way that reflects the actual increased costs of these items. This financial support seems increasingly ungenerous in a society whose living standards are unrecognisably higher than in the 1940s.</p>
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<img alt="A vintage photograph of people on Trafalgar Square." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571447/original/file-20240125-25-2ys68y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Benefits levels were calculated after the second world war to cover basic living costs.</span>
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<p>Then came the double whammy of the past ten years. First, in 2013, the government stopped automatically uprating benefits even with inflation, causing a real-terms decline in benefits already regarded as providing only for basic needs. </p>
<p>Second, despite a link with the consumer prices index being restored in 2020, the following year the price of basics started to shoot up much more sharply than these upratings. As Peter Matejic, chief analyst at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation charity, has <a href="https://twitter.com/StatsPeter/status/1747556505111421000">pointed out</a>, since April 2021, benefits have risen 13% but the price of food by 30% and home energy by over 60%.</p>
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<p>When such essentials of life are rising in price faster than other goods and services, true inflation is much higher than the official rate for the poorest groups. And the consequences are terrifying. </p>
<p>Fixing this broken benefits system after an election, with money so short, will not be easy. At the very least, there should be a commitment to start making improvements. Simply pegging benefits to prices is no longer enough. It entrenches these grossly inadequate benefit levels. </p>
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<img alt="A grandfather and grandchild at a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571449/original/file-20240125-15-z6onaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">UK state pensions now increase as earnings improve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/grandfather-granddaughter-colouring-picture-together-596651789">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>A good start would be a commitment to improving the value of the safety net as economic conditions permit. This would be a just alternative to putting all growth dividends into tax cuts. </p>
<p>This is in effect what the UK government <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/pension_reform.pdf">did for pensioners</a> in the mid-2000s, when it guaranteed that the state pension and Pension Credit would increase as earnings improved. The result is that a single pensioner is now guaranteed not £84.80 but £201.05 a week to live on, which is close to (although still slightly below) the minimum actually required to live a decent life, covering a range of material basics and a modest amount of spending on leisure.</p>
<p>Most of low-income Britain has taken a substantial hit in living standards from the rapid increase in the cost of essentials. Pensioners, though, are better placed to weather this storm because their incomes have grown in better times. The poorest working-age adults now desperately need a system that allows them to similarly benefit from future growth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Hirsch Iis a paid adviser to abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, who funded his report. He is a member of the Labour Party</span></em></p>The UK benefits system does not systematically cater for the basic household needs of healthy eating and domestic energy.Donald Hirsch, Professor of Social Policy, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2220332024-01-26T17:57:58Z2024-01-26T17:57:58ZThe Kitchen: Daniel Kaluuya and Kano’s dystopian film portrays a gentrified future uncomfortably close to home<p>For his directorial debut, British actor Daniel Kaluuya has teamed up with filmmaker and architect Kibwe Tavares and the musician and actor, Kano AKA Kane Robinson, in The Kitchen, a dystopian tale of community bonds and inequality, now out on Netflix. The story is set in 2044. The gap between rich and poor it portrays has never loomed larger. It has also never felt closer to home. </p>
<p>The titular Kitchen is a brutalist former <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0038026118777451">sink estate</a> in south London. Surrounded by sparkling private apartment complexes, the people have been parked here in temporary housing by a government now bent on recuperating the real estate and kicking them out. </p>
<p>Here, Izi (Robinson), a worker at the Life after Life scam funeral company, is biding his time through gritted teeth. He cannot wait to get out, having almost saved enough to afford a new apartment in the Buena Vida development. The story hinges on the relationship he forges with recently orphaned Benji (Jedaiah Bannerman). </p>
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<p>With no vestige of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/austerity-gutted-the-welfare-state-preserving-benefits-now-cant-make-up-for-that-193360">welfare state</a>, those who are too poor to live in the city can’t even afford to die there. Grieving families fall back on Life after Life, which promises to save burial costs by growing trees, supposedly for “ecological restoration projects” from composted bodies. </p>
<p>In a future where death is too expensive, it is not surprising that social housing no longer exists. Life on the Kitchen is hard. Essential infrastructure regularly fails. Residents queue for one shower cubicle when the water goes off across the blocks. </p>
<p>These breakdowns are deliberate. Staples (Hope Ikpoku Jr), a local Robin Hood, musters his troupe of bikers to secure supermarket delivery vans’ contents in order to feed the estate’s residents. “They cuttin’ water, they blockin’ deliveries, they takin’ people,” Staples tells Benji. </p>
<h2>When the community pushes back</h2>
<p>“They” refers to the authorities behind the gentrification project that threatens the Kitchen’s existence. Police raids, violent and brutal, are increasing in regularity to clear the remaining residents out. “I can’t breathe,” Benji gasps at one point, a clear reference to the events that sparked the 2020 <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-pandemic-changed-social-media-and-george-floyds-death-created-a-collective-conscience-140104">#BlackLivesMatter protests</a>. </p>
<p>Residents warn each other the police are coming by <a href="https://theconversation.com/voices-hearts-and-hands-how-the-powerful-sounds-of-protest-have-changed-over-time-140192">banging pots and pans</a> against the railings, giving the Kitchen its name. There may be echoes of the pandemic’s clap for carers in this act, but its roots lie much further back.</p>
<p>It recalls the <em>cacerolazo</em> women’s protests across <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14791420701821773?casa_token=DEw1By77KAcAAAAA:CAk3bR2DNK5RjNWnlKNMOl30A27QGKK4rgSju2z5Q9E3Y9TeMFruP8tVmxtcGPBEUE_JAFACq-1t">South America</a> in the early 2000s over the impact of globalisation on their impoverished communities. The Kitchen’s inhabitants are pushing back against the forces marginalising them, with the basic materials they have to hand.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.nme.com/features/film-interviews/daniel-kaluuya-kibwe-tavares-the-kitchen-kano-netflix-3568525">a recent interview</a>, Kaluuya described what happened to his Kings Cross neighbourhood, in London, after the Eurostar terminal opened in 2007. Gentrification reduced crime rates associated with drugs and prostitution. It also ripped out stable residential communities. </p>
<p>An unflinching belief in the potential of community strength runs through the film. “We gotta look out for each other,” Lord Kitchener (Ian Wright), the estate’s resident radio DJ and unofficial leader, reminds his listeners. “They can’t stop We.” </p>
<p>The radio shows hosted by the Lord, as he’s known, reflect and reinforce the Kitchen’s cohesion. There is daily news of weddings and birthdays, where to find food, where there’s no water. Everyone living there is “family”, “a team”. </p>
<p>Amid its sprawling, blocky concrete structures (created in part through Tavares’ architectural nous), the estate’s residents create their own world. Hollowed out spaces beneath the flats become a vibrant market supplied through raids on shops beyond the estate. Residents constantly come together to eat and drink, to roller skate. One joyful scene sees the whole club doing the Candy dance. Everyone knows all the moves. </p>
<p>The Kitchen’s community defending itself reflects real events observed in urban Britain from the 1960s onwards. Local residents in poor districts –- often led by women –- have been organising themselves for decades to defend their spaces from the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03071022.2017.1290366?casa_token=z-VYxLWy6lEAAAAA:eDIISxGhryJz21MK57pT4hBDr8GDXIfJgFUbGc38xgOKnR7VeWj8ahRAEtlUuGRMf8BFMlQqSFBF">dangers of car ownership</a>, from the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/hwj/article/83/1/79/3862507">impact of housing shortages</a> and from the <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/urban-lab/sites/urban-lab/files/case-study-5-lambeth-council.pdf">negative consequences</a> of gentrification. </p>
<p>Just as people in the Kitchen do not necessarily see their communal parties as an explicit form of resistance, researchers have described innumerable incidences of <a href="https://jspp.psychopen.eu/index.php/jspp/article/view/5081/5081.html">“implicit activism”</a> where local people work to improve their surroundings without seeing themselves and their families displaced in the process. </p>
<p>As one mother on an estate in the East Midlands <a href="https://figshare.le.ac.uk/articles/journal_contribution/Small_acts_kind_words_and_not_too_much_fuss_Implicit_activisms/10108445">put it</a>, when her local Sure Start centre was threatened with closure in the early 2000s, “If there was a big issue, I think most of the mums here would be up for it. We stick together like that.” </p>
<p>Such communal activities, The Kitchen suggests, offer a more genuine reality than that manufactured by government-led “community improvement”. This point is forcibly brought home when we see that the breathtaking views over the city from Izi’s new apartment are in fact a series of projected images. The flat has no real window. </p>
<p>The question the film poses is whether community action is enough. The real danger is that by 2044, the gap between rich and poor in the UK will be so great as to be unbroachable. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2024-the-essential-guide-to-understanding-poverty-in-the-uk">Poverty rates</a> are rising steeply, especially among children. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/21/gordon-brown-urges-overhaul-benefits-system-study-crisis">Benefits</a> no longer cover the most basic costs to eat healthily and stay warm. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-awaab-ishaks-death-says-about-the-state-of-social-housing-in-the-uk-expert-qanda-19374">State housing stock</a> continues to decline. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-private-rental-sector-created-a-homelessness-crisis-in-ireland-and-england-201734">Private sector rents</a> are soaring. Local authorities are going <a href="https://theconversation.com/birminghams-bankruptcy-is-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-local-authorities-across-england-are-at-risk-212912">bankrupt</a> and the basic services people need – from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/25/warehouse-disabled-people-bristol-city-council">in-home social care</a> to special needs education and waste collection – are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-67577142">dwindling</a>. </p>
<p>The future The Kitchen depicts is not quite where we are, but familiar enough to feel realistic. Those watching it in this general election year would do well to consider whether this is the future that we wish to see.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Krista Cowman receives funding from AHRC; European Science Foundation and is a member of the Labour Party</span></em></p>The film is run through with an unflinching belief in the power communities wield and the tangible limits they face.Krista Cowman, Head of School of History Politics and International Relations, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153792023-10-12T10:34:49Z2023-10-12T10:34:49ZThe cost of living crisis can’t wait for the next election: three key issues the UK government needs to tackle now<p>Speakers at the 2023 Labour party conference have rightly addressed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/10/five-key-points-from-keir-starmers-speech">the economic insecurity</a> affecting families across the UK. As winter approaches, many are at breaking point. One week earlier, however, the Conservatives were notably quiet on this point. And yet, the government’s <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/costoflivinginsights/food">own statistics</a> show that four in ten adults are struggling with rent or mortgage payments and are buying less food when shopping. </p>
<p>The government has implemented a range of measures to support people facing rising costs. These include direct support to households through the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support/energy-bills-support-factsheet-8-september-2022">energy price guarantee</a>, and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/cost-of-living-payment">cost of living payments</a> to households in receipt of eligible benefits. Other initiatives – the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/cost-living-help-local-council">household support fund</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/council-tax-rebate-factsheet">council tax energy rebates</a> – have been devolved to local authorities to roll out. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/media/policyengine/costoflivingresearchgroup/Cost%20of%20Living%20report%20(5)%20(1).pdf">new research</a> combines evidence collated since 2022, through projects in the University of York’s <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/policy-engine/cost-of-living/#:%7E:text=Chaired%20by%20Professor%20Kate%20Pickett,Equality%20and%20Health%20and%20Wellbeing.">Cost of Living Research Group</a>. In particular, we are conducting <a href="https://changingrealities.org/">collaborative research</a> with more than 100 families on low incomes based across the UK, along with analysis of national statistics and surveys of over 700 local councillors. </p>
<p>Our findings show that these governmental interventions have not helped the country’s most vulnerable people. They point to three crucial issues that need to be addressed: <a href="https://theconversation.com/poverty-in-britain-is-firmly-linked-to-the-countrys-mountain-of-private-wealth-labour-must-address-this-growing-inequality-212741">child poverty</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-economys-covid-bounceback-was-stronger-than-we-thought-but-heres-why-people-are-still-feeling-financial-pain-212947">fuel poverty</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/austerity-gutted-the-welfare-state-preserving-benefits-now-cant-make-up-for-that-193360">local authority welfare funding</a>. </p>
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<img alt="Children in school uniform with backpacks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553272/original/file-20231011-24-y5diez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">280,000 children are impacted by the cap on benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/multicultural-children-asian-indian-chinese-caucasian-1738679645">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Child poverty</h2>
<p>The pandemic and cost of living crisis have exposed weaknesses in the UK’s social security system, opened up by over a <a href="https://wbg.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/SOCIAL-SECURITY-2019.pdf">decade of cuts</a>. Children in the poorest households are <a href="https://www.thenhsa.co.uk/app/uploads/2023/01/COTN-APPG.pdf">bearing the brunt</a> of this failing safety net. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/benefit-cap">benefit cap</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claiming-benefits-for-2-or-more-children">two-child limit</a>, which restricted the support provided through tax credits and universal credit to two children per household, were key contributors to rising child poverty throughout the 2010s, predominantly affecting <a href="https://largerfamilies.study/">larger families</a>. One in ten children (1.5 million) now live in households affected by the two-child limit. The benefit cap, meanwhile, has affected the lives of 280,000 children. Some 32,000 households – 110,000 children – have their income limited by both. </p>
<p>The people we spoke with explained how living in poverty has affected their whole families. One respondent, Lili, said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Scrimping like this does have a negative effect on us all … I wake up in the night worrying about money and know how much it costs to use every single appliance. My standard of self-care and wellbeing has declined, but I am trying to ensure that our daughter’s does not. We are surviving but not really living, let alone thriving.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The government’s cost of living payments were <a href="https://largerfamilies.study/">paid at a flat rate</a> and not adjusted to household size. This means they have not met the needs of families with children. Abolishing the two-child limit and benefit cap would make an immediate difference to low-income households, <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/media/policyengine/costoflivingresearchgroup/Cost%20of%20Living%20report%20(5)%20(1).pdf">helping lift</a> more than 1.5 million children out of poverty.</p>
<h2>Fuel poverty</h2>
<p>Since 2021, the proportion of people unable to meet their energy needs has risen dramatically. Our research shows that one in ten UK households are now affected. </p>
<p>That number rises to three in ten for one-parent households with two or more children. This means these families are at risk of living in damp, mouldy and cold homes, which can lead to heart and lung problems and undermine their mental health. For children, living in fuel poverty can have a significant <a href="https://www.thenhsa.co.uk/app/uploads/2023/01/COTN-APPG.pdf">lifelong impact</a>.</p>
<p>The Westminster government’s energy support has done little to alleviate hardship. As another respondent, Dotty, put it: “I’m lucky if £20 credit on my electric pre-payment meter will even last me for three days.” </p>
<p>Despite the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support/energy-price-guarantee-up-until-30-june-2023">energy price guarantee</a>, our <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/media/business-society/research/Who_are_the_fuel_poor_revised_v2.pdf">analysis</a> suggests that six in ten families on the lowest incomes were living in fuel poverty in April 2023. We estimate that one in three households in fuel poverty (around 1.75 million people) have been ineligible for government cost of living support.</p>
<p>A recent survey from the energy provider EDF <a href="https://www.edfenergy.com/media-centre/news-releases/public-show-strong-support-social-energy-tariff-winter-approaches">found</a> that 77% of the British public are in favour of a social energy tariff. Implementing such a tariff could help target government support to the most vulnerable households.</p>
<h2>Local welfare systems</h2>
<p>Councils are responsible for administering the national government’s household support fund. The first of this series of support packages, now totalling over £2.5bn, was announced by Westminster in October 2021.</p>
<p>The problem is that after a decade and a half of austerity policies, councils and local services have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/birminghams-bankruptcy-is-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-local-authorities-across-england-are-at-risk-212912">stripped to the bone</a>. They now lack the infrastructure and capacity to administer and roll out these short-term schemes, about which they are notified, by central government, at short notice.</p>
<p>One council worker told us how “bitty” the funding had been: “Every time we’ve had the scheme, the message from the Department for Work and Pensions has been, ‘This is the last year you’ll get the funding.’” As a result, the council worker said, they do not plan for the long-term.</p>
<p>Our analysis of the second wave of household support fund <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/household-support-fund-2-management-information-1-april-to-30-september-2022/">allocations</a> showed that, while authorities such as Doncaster and Leeds allocated more than 70% of their funds to support for energy and water needs, neighbouring authorities North Yorkshire and Wakefield allocated 90% or more towards food. </p>
<p>This inconsistency is making life harder for people seeking help. As one respondent, Mollie put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I reached out to my local council regarding the household support fund, as my sister mentioned she had received some support in the form of food vouchers. It turns out her local council made the scheme easier to access.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The household support fund can be a lifeline for households struggling with rising costs. But getting aid to the people who need it takes stable, predictable funding and proper strategic planning. </p>
<p>In his conference speech, opposition leader Keir Starmer said the Labour party wants to move away from the current government’s short-term, <a href="https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/keir-starmers-speech-at-labour-conference/">“sticking plaster”</a> approach to politics. The reality, however, is that neither party currently has a sufficiently ambitious plan to rebuild the UK’s social security system. People cannot wait until the next election to get the help they need. The government needs to act now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kit Colliver receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Barnes receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) and the UK Prevention Research Partnership (an initiative funded by UK Research and Innovation Councils, the Department of Health and Social Care (England), UK devolved administrations, and leading health research charities). Amy is a Trustee of Healthwatch North Yorkshire and Manor and Castle Development Trust, Sheffield.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maddy Power receives funding from the Wellcome Trust. Maddy is a member of the Labour Party and a Trustee of the Independent Food Aid Network.</span></em></p>Governmental support is failing the country’s most vulnerable households. Politicians need to act now.Kit Colliver, Research Associate at York Law School, University of YorkAmy Barnes, Senior Researcher, Public Health and Society, University of YorkMaddy Power, Research Fellow in the Department of Health Sciences, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125282023-09-27T17:50:49Z2023-09-27T17:50:49ZForcing people to repay welfare ‘loans’ traps them in a poverty cycle – where is the policy debate about that?<p>The National Party’s <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/26/more-sanctions-for-unemployed-beneficiaries-under-national/">pledge to apply sanctions</a> to unemployed people receiving a welfare payment, if they are “persistently” failing to meet the criteria for receiving the benefit, has attracted plenty of comment and <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/26/nationals-benefit-sanctions-plan-cruel-dehumanising-greens/">criticism</a>.</p>
<p>Less talked about has been the party’s promise to index benefits to inflation to keep pace with the cost of living. This might at least provide some relief to those struggling to make ends meet on welfare, though is not clear how much difference it would make to the current system of indexing benefits to wages. </p>
<p>In any case, this alone it is unlikely to break the cycle of poverty many find themselves in.</p>
<p>One of the major drivers of this is the way the welfare system pushes some of the most vulnerable people into debt with loans for things such as school uniforms, power bills and car repairs.</p>
<p>The government provides one-off grants to cover benefit shortfalls. But most of these grants are essentially loans. </p>
<p>People receiving benefits are required to repay the government through weekly deductions from their normal benefits – which leaves them with even less money to survive on each week.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/132980318/auckland-mother-serves-up-cereal-for-dinner-due-to-rising-food-costs">rising costs</a>, the situation is only getting worse for many of the 351,756 New Zealanders <a href="https://figure.nz/chart/TtiUrpceJruy058e-ITw010dHsM6bvA2a">accessing one of the main benefits</a>. </p>
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<h2>Our whittled down welfare state</h2>
<p>Broadly, there are three levels of government benefits in our current system. </p>
<p>The main benefits (such as jobseeker, sole parent and supported living payment) <a href="https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/benefit-rates/benefit-rates-april-2023.html">pay a fixed weekly amount</a>. The jobseeker benefit rate is set at NZ$337.74 and sole parents receive $472.79 a week. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-labour-national-consensus-on-family-support-means-the-election-wont-change-much-for-nzs-poorest-households-212450">The Labour-National consensus on family support means the election won’t change much for NZ’s poorest households</a>
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<p>Those on benefits have access to a second level of benefits – weekly supplementary benefits such as an <a href="https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/accommodation-supplement.html">accommodation supplement</a> and other allowances or tax credits.</p>
<p>The third level of support is one-off discretionary payments for specific essential needs.</p>
<p>Those on benefits cannot realistically make ends meet without repeated use of these one-off payments, unless they use assistance from elsewhere – such as family, charity or borrowing from loan sharks. </p>
<p>This problem has been building for decades. </p>
<h2>Benefits have been too low for too long</h2>
<p>In the 1970s, the <a href="https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/12967">Royal Commission on Social Security</a> declared the system should provide “a standard of living consistent with human dignity and approaching that enjoyed by the majority”. </p>
<p>But Ruth Richardson’s “<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/christchurch-life/124978983/1991-the-mother-of-all-budgets">mother of all budgets</a>” in 1991 slashed benefits. Rates never recovered and today’s <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/03/29/benefit-increases-will-still-leave-families-locked-in-poverty/">benefits are not enough to live on</a>. </p>
<p>In 2018, the <a href="https://www.weag.govt.nz/">Welfare Expert Advisory Group</a> looked at how much money households need in two lifestyle scenarios: bare essentials and a minimum level of participation in the community, such as playing a sport and taking public transport. </p>
<p>The main benefits plus supplementary allowances did not meet the cost of the bare essentials, let alone minimal participation. </p>
<p>The Labour government has since <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-delivers-income-increases-over-14-million-new-zealanders">increased benefit rates</a>, meaning they are now slightly above those recommended by the advisory group. But those recommendations were made in 2019 and don’t take into account the <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-inflation-at-6-0-percent">sharp rise in inflation</a> since then. </p>
<p>Advocacy group <a href="https://fairerfuture.org.nz/">Fairer Future</a> published an updated assessment in 2022 – nine out of 13 types of households still can’t meet their core costs with the current benefit rates.</p>
<h2>How ‘advances’ create debt traps</h2>
<p>When they don’t have money for an essential need, people on benefits can receive a “special needs grant”, which doesn’t have to be repaid. But in practice, Work and Income virtually never makes this type of grant for anything except food and some other specific items, such as some health travel costs or emergency dental treatment.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/02/27/very-stressful-beneficiary-says-he-cant-afford-msd-debt/">all other essential needs</a> – such as school uniforms, car repairs, replacing essential appliances, overdue rent, power bills and tenancy bonds – a one-off payment called an “advance” is used. Advances are loans and have to be paid back.</p>
<p>There are several issues with these types of loans.</p>
<p>First, people on benefits are racking up thousands of dollars worth of debts to cover their essential needs. It serves to trap them in financial difficulties for the foreseeable future. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-zealands-government-cannot-ignore-major-welfare-reform-report-116895">Why New Zealand's government cannot ignore major welfare reform report</a>
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<p>As long as they remain on benefits or low incomes, it’s difficult to repay these debts. And the <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2018/0032/latest/whole.html">Social Security Act 2018</a> doesn’t allow the Ministry of Social Development (MSD) to waive debts.</p>
<h2>Contradictory policies</h2>
<p>Another problem is that people on benefits have to start repaying their debt straight away, with weekly deductions coming out of their already limited benefit.</p>
<p>Each new advance results in a further weekly deduction. Often these add up to $50 a week or more. MSD policy says repayments should not add up to more than $40 a week, but that is often ignored. </p>
<p>This happens because the law stipulates that each individual debt should be repaid in no more than two years, unless there are exceptional circumstances. Paying this debt off in two years often requires total deductions to be much higher than $40.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kindness-doesnt-begin-at-home-jacinda-arderns-support-for-beneficiaries-lags-well-behind-australias-139387">Kindness doesn't begin at home: Jacinda Ardern's support for beneficiaries lags well behind Australia's</a>
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<p>The third issue is that one-off payments can be refused regardless of the need. That is because there are two provisions pulling in opposite directions.</p>
<p>On the one hand the law says a payment should be made if not making it would cause serious hardship. But on the other hand, the law also says payments should not be made if the person already has too much debt.</p>
<p>People receiving benefits and their case managers face the choice between more debt and higher repayments, or failing to meet an essential need.</p>
<h2>Ways to start easing the burden</h2>
<p>So what is the fix? A great deal could be achieved by just changing the policies and practices followed by Work and Income.</p>
<p>Case managers have the discretion to make non-recoverable grants for non-food essential needs. These could and should be used when someone has an essential need, particularly when they already have significant debt. </p>
<p>Weekly deductions for debts could also be automatically made very low.</p>
<p>When it comes to changing the law, the best solution would be to make weekly benefit rates adequate to live on. </p>
<p>The government could also make these benefit debts similar to student loans, with no repayments required until the person is off the benefit and their income is above a certain threshold.</p>
<p>However we do it, surely it must be time to do something to fix this poverty trap.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hanna Wilberg has collaborated with advocacy organisations such as Auckland Action Against Poverty to help people on benefits.</span></em></p>People on benefits are borrowing from the government to pay for essentials like power bills and car repairs. But repayments leave them with even less than before.Hanna Wilberg, Associate professor - Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105822023-08-01T15:42:09Z2023-08-01T15:42:09ZHomelessness in England has reached record levels – here’s why, and how to fix it<p>Record numbers of people are living in temporary accommodation in England, according to the UK government’s latest <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66296333">reported figures</a>. Statistics on statutory homelessness show that in March 2023, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statutory-homelessness-in-england-january-to-march-2023/statutory-homelessness-in-england-january-to-march-2023">104,510 households</a> – including over 131,000 children – were living in hotels, hostels, B&Bs and the like.</p>
<p>These figures are the result of multiple crises. There is an insufficient supply of available and affordable housing in the UK, with more than <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/social-housing-lettings-in-england-april-2021-to-march-2022/social-housing-lettings-in-england-tenants-april-2021-to-march-2022#:%7E:text=5.1%20How%20long%20is%20the,lists%20has%20fallen%20by%2034%25.">1.2 million households</a> on social housing waiting lists in England alone. At the same time, there has been a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building">sustained fall</a> in social housing homes being built (39,562 in 2010 compared with 7,644 in 2022). </p>
<p>Government data also <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2021-to-2022-headline-report/english-housing-survey-2021-to-2022-headline-report">shows</a> that the private rented sector has nearly doubled in size since 2020. It is now the second biggest tenure after owner occupation. This means that what happens in the private rented sector is affecting proportionally more and more of the population – and hits younger people particularly hard. </p>
<p>In March 2020, in a bid to stop the spread of COVID, <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-lessons-the-pandemic-taught-us-about-ending-homelessness-permanently-179994">the government</a> funded interventions to get people sleeping rough off the streets. This public health intervention, dubbed the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9057/">Everyone In</a> campaign <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rough-sleeping-snapshot-in-england-autumn-2022/rough-sleeping-snapshot-in-england-autumn-2022">prompted</a> a drop of 37% in the 2020 homelessness figures and a further 9% in 2021. </p>
<p>This confirms what <a href="https://www.cih.org/homeful">my research</a> has long shown: with the necessary funding and political support, local authorities and social housing providers can dramatically improve the lives of people experiencing homelessness. </p>
<h2>The English housing lottery</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66246223">a recent analysis</a> by the BBC, competition in the private rented sector has left 20 people vying for each tenancy. This represents a tripling of demand since 2019. </p>
<p>In May 2023, prospective tenants <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/renting/renting-london-black-mould-bidding-budgets-renters-b1079848.html">interviewed by the Evening Standard</a> testified to the extent to which demand has outstripped supply in London. They spoke about properties in mouldy condition, others going for £150 or £200 above the asking rental price, others still with six-month break clauses. They described how looking for a place to rent – and facing discrimination in the process – was affecting their mental health. As one man put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You feel powerless because landlords know that if you don’t take it, they’ll find someone who’ll offer more.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The local housing allowance – the rate used to calculate housing benefit available to people – has been frozen since 2020. As a result, the amount of state support people are able to get does not track <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/news/housing-benefits-have-been-frozen-while-rents-have-sky-rocketed-only-1-20-private-rental">market rates</a>, which have risen <a href="https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/rental-market-report-march-2023/">by 20%</a> in that same period.</p>
<p>In July 2023, secretary of state for levelling up, housing and communities, Michael Gove, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/long-term-plan-for-housing-secretary-of-states-speech">announced</a> that his department would prioritise “urban regeneration and new inner-city renaissance” as a means for getting more homes built. This suggests Gove is seeking to <a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-crisis-cant-be-solved-by-tinkering-with-planning-laws-build-more-social-housing-instead-92902">further tweak</a> the planning system by focusing on investment urban areas. </p>
<p>Instead of widening potential land use, Gove wants to regenerate cities. This will compound the housing issues facing those living in <a href="https://englishrural.org.uk/rural-homelessness-counts/">rural areas</a> – tourism and the second home boom is affecting rural and coastal property markets, making housing even more unaffordable for local people and driving hidden homelessness – homelessness not accounted for in official statistics. </p>
<p>At the same time, Gove has not addressed the need to boost building for social rentals in order to meet the needs of the millions of people on the waiting list. </p>
<h2>Housing precarity among young people</h2>
<p>Where there is a lack of affordable housing and a lack of rental housing, there will be more homelessness. With the Everyone In campaign’s success in 2021, the government demonstrated that it had the means to actually tackle this problem. </p>
<p>However, in 2022, the numbers spiked again. Relative to the 2021 figures, there was a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rough-sleeping-snapshot-in-england-autumn-2022/rough-sleeping-snapshot-in-england-autumn-2022">26% increase</a> in people sleeping rough. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02007/">House of Commons library briefing</a> in March 2023 highlighted that, if the government wants to meet its stated target of eradicating rough sleeping by 2024, research has long shown what needs to be put in place – a long-term strategy, thorough cross-party working and long-term funding. The briefing also pointed out that the government’s own figures suggest that without such bold action, it will miss its own target. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hVkYSMYDSPw">Youth homelessness</a> is of particular concern. Data <a href="https://homeless.org.uk/news/time-for-a-youth-homelessness-strategy/">collated</a> by charities, including Homeless Link and the New Horizon Youth Centre, in 2022 showed that 129,000 young people had sought help with housing from their local authority. </p>
<p>Much of this is hidden from public gaze. These young people often stay with friends for short periods or live in precarious conditions. Their vulnerability is only heightened by societal assumptions that they are “adult enough” to manage on their own, but not “grown-up enough” to expect to have their own place. </p>
<p>These assumptions are made clear in the fact that benefits are capped at a “shared accommodation” rate unless there are specific circumstances, for example, proven experience of domestic violence. </p>
<p>Those who no longer fall in the 18-24 age bracket, but are part of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-changes-that-could-make-make-housing-better-for-generation-rent-95386">generation rent</a>”, have already been campaigning on the impact of inequality in housing and the issues faced in the private rented sector. </p>
<p>In 2022, <a href="https://www.cih.org/homeful">I researched</a> what had worked in how the Everyone In campaign was implemented. I found that where local authorities, social housing providers, healthcare, charities and the private sector were funded and supported, they could work nimbly, effectively sharing information and collaborating to achieve outcomes quickly. </p>
<p>At national level, however, the single most vital ingredient is the political will to actually deliver properly affordable housing. This requires the state to provide sustained funding and to have a long-term strategic approach. Failing this, the lessons learned since the start of the pandemic, on the importance to society of a place to call home, will be lost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Richardson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Without state investment, strategic consideration and political support, the lessons learned since the start of the pandemic on the importance to society of a place to call home will be lost.Jo Richardson, Professor of Housing and Social Inclusion, De Montfort UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064622023-06-01T12:31:37Z2023-06-01T12:31:37ZGetting Social Security on a more stable path is hard but essential – 2 experts suggest a way forward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528714/original/file-20230528-19-7mz301.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C39%2C5166%2C3475&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">No big Social Security reforms have taken effect since the Reagan administration.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-reagan-speaks-before-signing-the-social-security-news-photo/568872063">David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social Security is in trouble. </p>
<p>The retirement and disability program has been running a cash-flow deficit since 2010. Its trust fund, which holds US$2.7 trillion, is rapidly diminishing. Social Security’s trustees, a group that includes the secretaries of the departments of Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services, as well as the Social Security commissioner, project that the trust fund will be <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf">completely drained by 2033</a>. </p>
<p>Under current law, when that trust fund is empty, Social Security can pay benefits only from dedicated tax revenues, which would by that point cover about <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf">77% of promised benefits</a>. Another way to say this is that when the trust fund is depleted, under current law, Social Security beneficiaries would see a sudden 23% cut in their monthly checks in 2034. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=CwMgD5QAAAAJ">As economists</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y0lrTOoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">study the Medicare and Social Security programs</a>, we view the above scenario as politically unacceptable. Such a sudden and dramatic benefit cut would anger a lot of voters. Unfortunately, the actions necessary now to avoid it – like raising taxes or cutting benefits – aren’t getting serious consideration today. But we believe there are strategies that could work.</p>
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<h2>Where the money for benefits comes from</h2>
<p>Roughly <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf">67 million Americans, most of whom are 65 or older</a>, receive Social Security benefits. The agency <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2021/#8-2021-2">disburses more than $1 trillion annually</a>. It’s the government’s largest single expenditure, constituting nearly <a href="https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/">20% of the total federal budget</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/taxRates.html">Social Security is funded</a> by a payroll tax of 12.4% on wages split equally between workers and employers. Self-employed people pay the entire 12.4%. This payroll tax applies to earnings up to $160,200 as of 2023. The government increases this cap annually based on increases in the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/national-average-wage-index-nawi.asp">National Average Wage Index</a> – a measure that combines wage growth and inflation. The program also receives about 4% of its revenue from a <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf">tax on Social Security benefits</a>, though not everyone who receives them has to pay this tax.</p>
<p>Social Security tax revenue stayed relatively flat after 1990. But the costs of the program rose sharply in 2010, in part because of early <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716213499535">retirements in response to the Great Recession</a>.</p>
<p>Social Security spending has recently been growing more rapidly because of a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year/">wave of baby boomer retirements</a>, which added to a decline in the <a href="https://retirementincomejournal.com/article/does-social-security-use-the-wrong-dependency-ratio">number of workers per retiree</a>.</p>
<p>Costs of the program are expected to further exceed the money that’s coming in, which will <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf">continue to drain the trust fund</a>, according to the program’s trustees. </p>
<p>Barring immediate action by the government, the trust fund’s exhaustion is only a little more than a decade away. And yet few members of Congress seem willing to do something about it. For example, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3835082-mccarthy-social-security-medicare-cuts-off-the-table/">Social Security reform was not even</a> on the table during the 2023 negotiations over the debt ceiling and spending cuts.</p>
<h2>Trust fund</h2>
<p>Where did the trust fund, which helps cover the program’s costs, come from?</p>
<p>While the Social Security program was collecting surpluses from 1984 to 2009, that extra money funded other spending – keeping other taxes lower than they would have been otherwise and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/historical-tables/">partially covering the budget deficit</a>.</p>
<p>During Social Security’s years of surplus, the excess revenues were credited to the trust fund in the form of <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/specialissues.html">special-issue government bonds</a> that yielded the prevailing interest rates. When those bonds are needed to pay for Social Security expenses, the Treasury redeems them.</p>
<p>Those bonds are components of the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-gross-debt-versus-debt-held-public">government’s $31.4 trillion gross debt</a>. </p>
<h2>Last reformed during the Reagan administration</h2>
<p>Reducing the benefits current retirees receive would be extremely unpopular. Likewise, people now in the workforce who are nearing retirement would certainly object strongly if they were told to expect lower benefits in retirement than they have been promised throughout their careers.</p>
<p>The last time the government made big changes to Social Security was in 1983, during the Reagan administration, when the government enacted reforms that <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/1983amend.html">slowly reduced benefits over time</a>. These changes included raising the full retirement age, a change that is <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html">still being phased in</a>. Because of those changes, workers born in 1960 or later cannot retire with full benefits until age 67 – two years later than the original retirement age.</p>
<p>The 1983 reforms also included increases in the Social Security payroll tax rate from 10.4% in 1983 to 12.4% by 1990, and for the first time levied federal income taxes on higher-income retirees’ benefits. Workers bore the burden of the payroll tax increases and <a href="https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-02471">higher-income retirees bore the burden of the tax on benefits</a>.</p>
<p>Those changes bolstered the program’s finances, but they no longer suffice.</p>
<p>The bipartisan <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/pcsss/pcsss.html">2001 Commission to Strengthen Social Security</a> tried – and failed – during George W. Bush’s presidency to get Congress to enact reforms to shore up the program’s finances. There’s been no momentum toward resolving the problem since then.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with gray hair sits at a table in front of a giant replica of a Social Security card." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George W. Bush sought to reform Social Security early in his presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/george-bush-speaks-about-social-security-during-a-news-photo/525606778">Brooks Kraft LLC/Sygma via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4 principles</h2>
<p>We believe that policymakers and lawmakers need to follow four principles as they consider how to move forward.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The program should be self-funded in the long run so that its annual revenues match its annual expenses. That way the many questions that arise related to trust fund accounting and whether Social Security tax revenues are being used for their intended purposes would be eliminated. </p></li>
<li><p>The reform burden should be shared across generations. Current retirees can share the burden through a reform that reduces the cost-of-living adjustment. Today’s workers can share the burden through an increase in the cap on income subjected to Social Security taxes so that 90% of total earnings are taxed. Continued gradual increases in the retirement age to keep pace with <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-07/57975-demographic-outlook.pdf">anticipated longevity gains</a> would also be borne by current workers. </p></li>
<li><p>The government should make sure that Social Security benefits will be adequate for lower-income retirees for years to come. That means reforms that slow the benefit growth of future retirees would be designed to affect only higher-income retirees. </p></li>
<li><p>Any changes to Social Security should help constrain the future growth of federal spending, given the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946#_idTextAnchor004">current and projected growth in the budget deficit</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Advantages of ending the delay</h2>
<p>It appears that the U.S. – citizens and elected officials included – are deferring serious debate on this urgent matter until the trust fund’s depletion is imminent. That’s unwise. Acting sooner rather than later would leave more options available to gradually resolve the program’s financial shortfalls. </p>
<p>Ending this procrastination would also give the millions of people who rely on Social Security benefits, taxpayers and businesses more time to prepare for any changes required by overdue reforms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Rettenmaier does not work for, consult, or own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article. He has received funding from the American Enterprise Institute, the Bradley Foundation, the Charles Koch Foundation, and the National Center for Policy Analysis. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis W. Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Congress and the White House fail to take action, Social Security beneficiaries would see a sudden 23% cut in their monthly checks in 2034.Andrew Rettenmaier, Executive Associate Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityDennis W. Jansen, Professor of Economics and Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2001582023-04-14T12:16:52Z2023-04-14T12:16:52ZSocial Security may be failing well over a million people with disabilities – and COVID-19 is making the problem worse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520945/original/file-20230413-367-pgvlmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C124%2C3410%2C2192&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social Security has two programs aimed at helping those with disabilities. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/social-security-royalty-free-image/1214329962?phrase=social%20security%20disability">Kameleon007/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em> </p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>More than half of U.S. adults over the age of 50 with work-limiting disabilities – likely over 1.3 million people – do not receive the Social Security disability benefits they may need, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279422000745">new peer-reviewed research I conducted</a>. In addition, those who do receive benefits are unlikely getting enough to make ends meet. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/disability">Social Security Administration operates two programs</a> intended to provide benefits to people with disabilities: Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income, the latter of which hinges on financial need. Their shared goal is to ensure that people with work-limiting disabilities are able to maintain a decent standard of living.</p>
<p>I think it’s fair to say that if a disability benefit is truly available to those who need it, then a large portion of people with work-limiting disabilities should actually receive the aid. </p>
<p>To learn if that is true for the disability programs, I analyzed data over time from a long-running survey of adults older than age 50 called the <a href="https://hrs.isr.umich.edu/about">Health and Retirement Study</a>. The survey included information on disabilities and finances for tens of thousands of people from across the country and was linked to disability benefit records from the Social Security Administration. As the disability programs primarily serve those in their working years, I only looked at people who hadn’t yet hit <a href="https://www.nasi.org/learn/social-security/retirement-age/">the full retirement age</a>.</p>
<p>The data showed that the share of people with substantial work-limiting disabilities who received Disability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income benefits or both rose from 32% in 1998 to 47% in 2016, which was the last year the data was available. This is just a little above the average among <a href="https://share-eric.eu">27 high-income countries</a> I compared the data with. </p>
<p>Using the most recent <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-national-detail.html">Census data</a>, I estimate that more than half of those with work-limiting disabilities between the ages of 50-64 — about 1.35 million people — likely need these benefits but aren’t getting them.</p>
<p>I also examined the generosity of disability benefits in the U.S. by using <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/data-science/regression-analysis/">regression analysis</a>, a statistical tool that allowed me to compare the relationship between multiple variables. This helped me identify whether disability benefit recipients experience greater difficulty achieving financial security compared with adults who are not on benefits but have similar social and demographic backgrounds. </p>
<p>I found that those receiving benefits, and particularly Supplemental Security Income, struggled more and experienced less financial security than their peers. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dhjo.2013.12.001">Nearly a quarter of U.S. adults</a> who head a household will report a severe disability that limits their ability to work at some point in their lives. </p>
<p>Many will look for financial support from Social Security’s disability programs, which <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/">together provide benefits</a> to more than 12 million people in 2023. </p>
<p>The Disability Insurance program, established in 1956, provides benefits to those who meet a specific <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/404/404-1505.htm">definition of disability</a> and have paid Social Security payroll taxes. The <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/dib-g3.html">average payment as of February 2023</a> was $1,686 per month. </p>
<p>The Supplemental Security Income program, established in 1972, pays cash benefits to adults and children who also meet the definition of disability and who have financial need. The <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/SSI.html">maximum payment as of 2023</a> was $914, though <a href="https://eligibility.com/state-disability-insurance">some states supplement this</a> with their own programs. </p>
<p>My research suggests that well over 1 million people with disabilities who face substantial barriers to employment are not getting the assistance they need. But what’s more, even those who receive benefits are likely not getting enough. <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/rsnotes/rsn2022-01.html">Past research</a> shows that more than 20% of Disability Insurance recipients and 52% of Supplemental Security Income recipients live in poverty despite receiving these benefits.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>This research looked at data from 2016 and earlier, but a lot has changed since then. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/05/social-security-disability-benefit-offices-backlog-breaking-point/">Chronic understaffing</a> at benefit offices — long-running but worse since the COVID-19 pandemic began — are making benefits harder to get at a time of growing need. An <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30435">estimated 500,000 people</a> are experiencing disabilities as a result of long COVID. And those experiencing it report having <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/25/business/long-covid-workforce-issues-disability-claims/index.html">even more trouble receiving benefits</a>. </p>
<p>So the problem is probably worse today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary Morris received funding for this research from the Steven H. Sandell Grant Program for Retirement and Disability Research funded by the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) through the Retirement and Disability Research Consortium. </span></em></p>More than half of working-age adults over 50 with a work-limiting disability didn’t receive any benefits from Social Security in 2016.Zachary Morris, Assistant Professor of Social Welfare, Stony Brook University (The State University of New York)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013602023-03-16T12:37:05Z2023-03-16T12:37:05ZWhy it’s hard for the US to cut or even control Medicare spending<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515188/original/file-20230314-3582-48y9sf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C94%2C5673%2C2862&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The number of Americans covered by Medicare is growing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/female-friends-walking-with-nordic-walking-poles-in-royalty-free-image/1339068107">OR Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s 2024 proposed budget includes plans to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/07/fact-sheet-the-presidents-budget-extending-medicare-solvency-by-25-years-or-more-strengthening-medicare-and-lowering-health-care-costs/">shore up the finances of Medicare</a>, the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Medicare-General-Information/MedicareGenInfo">federal health insurance program</a> that covers Americans who are 65 and up and some younger people with disabilities.</p>
<p>His administration aims to increase <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11820">from 3.8% to 5%</a> an existing Medicare tax that’s collected on the labor and investment earnings of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/what-to-know-about-proposed-biden-tax-on-the-wealthy-to-fund-medicare.html">Americans who make more than US$400,000 annually</a>. It also aims to reap some savings from having the government <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-pulse/2023/03/10/the-white-houses-health-care-wish-list-00086344">negotiate prices on more prescription drugs</a>.</p>
<p>The White House projects that these changes would generate an additional <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/budget_fy2024.pdf">$650 billion</a> in revenue over a decade. <a href="https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/3/10/president-bidens-proposal-to-extend-medicare-trust-fund">Some independent experts</a> concur.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=CwMgD5QAAAAJ">As economists</a> who have long <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y0lrTOoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">researched</a> the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y0lrTOoAAAAJ&hl=en">Medicare and Social Security programs</a>, we believe the president’s proposal is an important first step in opening the necessary debate on strengthening Medicare’s finances.</p>
<h2>Part A’s precarious funding</h2>
<p>Medicare consumes more than <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58848">15% of the federal budget</a>. The program cost $975 billion in 2022, out of the government’s <a href="https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/budget/">$6.5 trillion in total federal spending</a>.</p>
<p>As anyone who has enrolled in it can tell you, the program itself is rather complicated. It’s divided into three parts, known as A, B and D, each of which relies on revenue from a different mix of sources.</p>
<p>Medicare Part A covers care delivered at hospitals and nursing homes, as well as home health care. Part B pays for doctor’s visits and outpatient procedures, and Part D pays for prescription drugs. There’s also Part C, a private insurance option, known as Medicare Advantage. However, its costs are included in the accounting for Parts A and B. </p>
<p>Part A is primarily funded by a <a href="https://www.irs.gov/publications/p80">1.45% Medicare payroll tax</a> on both employees and employers. When that tax and the program’s other tax revenues don’t raise enough money to cover Part A’s costs, the program dips into the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/our-work/projects/medicare-hospital-insurance-trust-fund">Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund</a> to make up the difference. The trust fund, amassed from past surplus payroll taxes, currently stands at around <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/tr22summary.pdf">$143 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Without spending cuts, funding increases or a combination of the two, the Medicare program’s trustees have predicted in their annual report that the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">Medicare trust fund</a> will be exhausted by 2028. The <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/TR-2022-Fact-Sheet.pdf">trustees are the secretaries</a> of the Treasury, Labor and Health and Human Services departments, plus the Social Security commissioner. There can be up to two additional trustees, but those seats are vacant.</p>
<p>Medicare’s expenses are rising rapidly with the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032216/are-we-baby-boomer-retirement-crisis.asp">retirement of baby boomers</a>, the large generation of Americans born between 1946 and 1964, and <a href="https://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/statistics-trends-and-reports/nationalhealthexpenddata/nationalhealthaccountshistorical">rising health care costs</a>. </p>
<p>Should the trust fund be emptied out, the trustees predict that hospital benefits would have to be cut by 10%. But those cuts are widely considered to be politically unacceptable, as illustrated by <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2023/">statements from Biden</a> and his predecessor, former President <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-full-text-of-trumps-2020-state-of-the-union">Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to proposing an increase in the tax levied on the <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/questions-and-answers-on-the-net-investment-income-tax">investment earnings of high-income Americans</a>, Biden also proposes that these revenues be fully dedicated to the trust fund. Currently the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">government treats that money as general revenue</a> that can be used for <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/net-investment-income-tax-3192936">any government program</a>.</p>
<h2>2 very different scenarios</h2>
<p>Unlike Medicare Part A, Parts B and D are funded largely by general federal revenue and by premiums paid by retirees.</p>
<p>Because the government is allowed to use general revenue to pay for them, the funding of Parts B and D isn’t jeopardized by the depletion of their trust fund – no matter how fast those costs rise.</p>
<p>Even without Biden’s proposed changes, official Medicare spending projections rise rapidly through the mid-2030s and then plateau as a percentage of gross domestic product.</p>
<p>However, those projections are based on a presumption that payments to <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">hospitals are constrained as specified in the Affordable Care Act</a> and that other spending constraints on <a href="https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Quality-Initiatives-Patient-Assessment-Instruments/Value-Based-Programs/MACRA-MIPS-and-APMs/MACRA-MIPS-and-APMs">physician payments</a> are realized.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/usc-brookings-schaeffer-on-health-policy/2015/02/02/a-primer-on-medicare-physician-payment-reform-and-the-sgr/">history provides little assurance</a> that lawmakers will maintain all of these requirements to restrain future payments to health care providers. </p>
<p>We say this because of what happened after 1997, when Congress approved the sustainable growth rate system, which was intended to limit the annual increase in cost per Medicare beneficiary to the rate of economic growth. Starting in 2002, Congress passed legislation year after year to override it – and only stopped doing that once it <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/journalofethics.2015.17.11.pfor1-1511">did away with the system altogether in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>Reflecting this uncertainty, the annual <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">trustees report</a> features an alternative projection that is arguably more credible and more scary. It indicates that Medicare costs will grow much faster than the economy starting in 2036.</p>
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<h2>Competing demands</h2>
<p>The Social Security program, a national pension program that primarily supports older Americans, faces similar funding shortfalls.</p>
<p>Its trustees anticipate that the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/2022/tr2022.pdf">Social Security trust fund will be depleted</a> by 2035 without changes in funding, promised benefits – or both. In that event, Social Security benefits <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/politics/social-security-benefit-cut/index.html">may have to fall by about 20%</a> from anticipated levels. </p>
<p>Medicare and Social Security are the nation’s largest <a href="https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/national-debt-guide/glossary/entitlements-definition.html">entitlement programs</a>. Almost all Americans, if they live long enough, will eventually be eligible to obtain these benefits – regardless of their income or wealth. </p>
<p>While Americans do not yet agree on how to put these programs on a steadier fiscal footing, the math is clear.</p>
<p>Our elected representatives cannot avoid making hard decisions that involve increasing taxes, reducing benefits or both.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis W. Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Rettenmaier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic appointment.</span></em></p>The program’s expenses are rising rapidly as baby boomers retire and health care costs grow.Dennis W. Jansen, Professor of Economics and Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityAndrew Rettenmaier, Executive Associate Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2012962023-03-16T03:51:02Z2023-03-16T03:51:02ZWhy robodebt’s use of ‘income averaging’ lacked basic common sense<p>The practice of “income averaging” to calculate debts in the robodebt scheme was completely flawed. This is what I confirmed in <a href="https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/professor-peter-whiteford-report-robodebt-royal-commission">my new report</a> conducted for the robodebt royal commission published last Friday, the final day of the commission’s public hearings.</p>
<p>This process effectively assumed many people receiving social security benefits had stable earnings throughout a whole year. </p>
<p>But this is unlikely to be accurate for the many people who don’t work standard <a href="https://theconversation.com/note-to-centrelink-australian-workers-lives-have-changed-70946">full-time hours</a>, and particularly for students, since the tax year and the academic year don’t coincide. </p>
<p>My report finds averaging of incomes is completely inconsistent with social security policies that have been developed by governments since the 1980s.</p>
<p>Since 1980, social security legislation has been amended more than 20 times to encourage recipients to take up part-time and casual work. These include the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/working-credit">Working Credit</a> for people receiving unemployment and other payments, and a similar but more generous <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/income-bank">Income Bank</a> for students.</p>
<p>These measures are specifically designed to <a href="https://formerministers.dss.gov.au/189/australians-working-together/">encourage people to take up more work</a>, including part-time and irregular casual work, and keep more of their social security payments.</p>
<p>Robodebt’s lack of consistency with long-standing policies should have been obvious from the start. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1634075269140033536"}"></div></p>
<h2>What is income averaging?</h2>
<p>In the robodebt scheme, income averaging involved data-matching historic records of social security benefit payments with past income tax returns, identifying discrepancies between these records.</p>
<p>It reduced human investigation of the discrepancies. The automatic calculation of “overpayments” for many people was based on a simple calculation that averaged income over the financial year.</p>
<p>The “debts” were based on the difference between this averaged income and the income that people actually reported while they were receiving payments.</p>
<p>I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/note-to-centrelink-australian-workers-lives-have-changed-70946">an article</a> for The Conversation on this in 2017. At the time, I thought, Centrelink couldn’t possibly have done that. </p>
<p>Well, as the royal commission has found, that’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-20/robodebt-scheme-government-royal-commission-fraud-income/101998782">precisely what it was doing</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/note-to-centrelink-australian-workers-lives-have-changed-70946">Note to Centrelink: Australian workers' lives have changed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A victim of robodebt, Deanna Amato, brought a <a href="https://www.legalaid.vic.gov.au/explainer-deanna-amatos-robo-debt-case">test case</a> to the Federal Court in 2019, which caused the government to admit robodebt was unlawful.</p>
<p>Amato also gave evidence at the <a href="https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/transcript-hearing-day-36-24-february-2023">royal commission in late February this year</a>. She described how it was obvious her debt was in error:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was averaged over the […] whole financial year. Study usually starts at the beginning of a calendar year. So I had been working full-time for the first six months of that year and then I had stopped working full-time to study. So it was really obvious that they had averaged out over the whole year rather than the six months I was actually only claiming Austudy for.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What I found</h2>
<p>It’s well known Australia has a high proportion of casual workers. </p>
<p>Because they’re employed on an “as needed” basis, their hours can vary substantially. Therefore, their income can too. </p>
<p>ABS data showed that in 2014 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-working-conditions/characteristics-employment-australia">nearly 40%</a> of casual workers didn’t work the same hours each week. Also, around 53% had pay that varied from one pay period to another. These figures have been broadly stable since 2008.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robodebt-was-a-fiasco-with-a-cost-we-have-yet-to-fully-appreciate-150169">Robodebt was a fiasco with a cost we have yet to fully appreciate</a>
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<hr>
<p>My report analyses new data provided by the Department of Social Services to the royal commission. It looks in detail at the circumstances of people who received social security payments between 2010-11 and 2018-19. These payments included Austudy, Newstart, Parenting Payment Partnered, Parenting Payment Single and Youth Allowance.</p>
<p>These payments accounted <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/Centrelinkcompliance/Submissions">for around 91%</a> of the people subject to the reviews that identified discrepancies and potential “overpayments” between 2016 and 2019 under the different phases of robodebt. </p>
<p>For Newstart and Youth Allowance recipients – who accounted for <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/Centrelinkcompliance/Submissions">75% of those affected by robodebt</a> – between 20% and 40% had earnings while receiving these benefits.</p>
<p>The share of people with income who had stable incomes over the course of the financial year was extremely low. In the Department of Social Services data, it ranged from less than 3% of people receiving youth payments, to around 5% of those receiving Newstart or Austudy, and 5%-10% of those receiving Parenting Payments. </p>
<h2>Share of people on social security payments with stable income over the course of each financial year, 2010-11 to 2018-19</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515377/original/file-20230315-24-i6ezz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For most of these people with variable income, the variations were large. More than 90% had periods when their income was more than $100 per fortnight different from their average, and more than 80% had variations greater than $200 per fortnight.</p>
<p>Average earnings varied substantially for people receiving social security payments for only part of a financial year. Receiving social security benefits for many people is <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-research-shows-more-australians-receive-unemployment-payments-than-you-think-151289">a short-term and sometimes recurring experience</a>.</p>
<p>To take the example of Newstart, in 2015-16 there were around 783,000 people who received payments at the start of the financial year. About 500,000 people entered the payment system during the year, and 325,000 exited the system. So, in total, nearly 1.2 million people received Newstart payments at some point during the financial year. Flows into and out of the other social security payments were similar. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-robodebt-scheme-failed-tests-of-lawfulness-impartiality-integrity-and-trust-193832">The Robodebt scheme failed tests of lawfulness, impartiality, integrity and trust</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For the unemployed and students, most people received payments for only part of the year. Almost nobody who received income had completely stable income over the robodebt period. What’s more, significant numbers of people who received social security payments were on such payments for only part of any financial year.</p>
<p>It’s completely inaccurate to assume that income over the course of a financial year can be averaged to produce an accurate figure for the actual patterns of people’s earnings.</p>
<p>Using this to then calculate “overpayments” isn’t only inconsistent with the social security policy directions adopted by government for decades, it also lacks basic common sense.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Whiteford receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee. This report for the Royal Commission into Robodebt was prepared without charge.</span></em></p>My new report for the royal commission examines why the practice of income averaging is so problematic.Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011652023-03-10T05:43:33Z2023-03-10T05:43:33Z‘Amateurish, rushed and disastrous’: royal commission exposes robodebt as ethically indefensible policy targeting vulnerable people<p>The robodebt royal commission hearings came to an end on Friday. Over the past four months, they have delivered a telling portrait of unaccountable government power.</p>
<p>As they look back on a mass of limited recollections, missing paper and inaction, what are key things Australians should take away?</p>
<h2>‘I’m appalled’</h2>
<p>The first phase of the inquiry was marked by bombshell revelations. Two iron curtains that protect government – legal professional privilege and cabinet confidentiality – were pulled back.</p>
<p>In the opening week, we learned:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>In 2014, Department of Social Services’ <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/31/legal-doubts-over-robodebt-raised-with-government-department-in-2014-inquiry-hears">legal advice</a> on robodebt was a flat “no”. New legislation was needed to raise debts by averaging annual income. Robodebt went ahead without it.</p></li>
<li><p>In 2017, after enormous public outcry, external legal advice was not sought. Instead, a government lawyer reported feeling “pressure” to produce heavily qualified <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/im-appalled-robodet-inquiry-commissioners-shock-at-departments-admission/4gxm8kigw">legal advice</a>. This unpersuasive advice was then used to justify the scheme.</p></li>
<li><p>In 2018, the Department of Social Services, <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/bad-government-on-display-for-all-to-see-in-robo-debt-debacle-20230205-p5chy1">received advice dubbed</a> “catastrophic” for the scheme. It stayed in draft, something lawyers admitted was a common practice. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Confronted by this, Commissioner Catherine Holmes had only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/05/a-shameful-chapter-how-australias-robodebt-saga-was-allowed-to-unfold">two words</a>: “I’m appalled”.</p>
<p>Without the commission, the standard rules on transparency would have applied. Australians would never have known any of it.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1588063857624449025"}"></div></p>
<h2>Ethically indefensible</h2>
<p>Robodebt is about so much more than just the absence of law. After years of semantics and political rhetoric, the hearings confirmed robodebt as baseless, ethically indefensible policy. </p>
<p>Holmes <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/turnbull-never-considered-robo-debt-legality-20230306-p5cpp9">rebuked</a> the program as “amateurish, rushed and disastrous”.</p>
<p>The core concept at the heart of robodebt was the tactical imposition of administrative burden on vulnerable people. Instead of the previous system, where evidence would be gathered direct from employers, the onus of proof was reversed. </p>
<p>The hearings revealed the department’s own budget <a href="https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2023-03/transcript-hearing-day-41-3-march.pdf">assumed most people would give up</a>. Hundreds of thousands would effectively cop an averaged and inaccurate debt. </p>
<p>Robodebt should never again be framed as a technological glitch or a legal oversight. It was the active and direct exploitation of people’s vulnerability. The department’s own research into the letters sent confirmed they <a href="https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2023-03/transcript-hearing-day-41-3-march.pdf">generated terror and confusion</a>. We learnt it even held modelling that debts raised under the programme were inflated.</p>
<p>We have built a dense, highly conditional welfare system, which concentrates enormous, life-changing powers in the hands of government decision-makers. The hearings delivered a portrait of a system warped by imbalances of power and a lack of access to justice. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robodebt-was-a-fiasco-with-a-cost-we-have-yet-to-fully-appreciate-150169">Robodebt was a fiasco with a cost we have yet to fully appreciate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Welfare cop</h2>
<p>So what of the politicians? Their appearances had one clear theme: they positioned themselves as the victims of the Australian Public Service.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison indicated he was entitled to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-14/scott-morrison-fronts-robodebt-inquiry/101771092">rely on a checklist</a> that read “no legislation needed”. Christian Porter relied on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/02/christian-porter-tells-inquiry-someone-in-department-assured-him-robodebt-was-legal-but-i-cant-recall-who">verbal assurance</a> of a public servant that the system was above board.</p>
<p>For hours, we cycled through the same phrases: “I did not know”. “I was not told”. “I was entitled to rely on public servants”.</p>
<p>In our Westminster system, a minister is responsible for the actions of their department. The hearings have revealed that to be abstract fiction rather than functional reality. While a storm of suffering and advocacy raged, politicians and their offices didn’t ask even the simplest questions about the core issue.</p>
<p>What they focused on was seeking political benefit – right from the earliest press releases, trumpeting the arrival <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/17/how-morrison-launched-australias-strong-welfare-cop-and-the-pain-robodebt-left-in-its-wake">of a</a> “strong welfare cop on the beat”. In the pursuit of this political brand, we saw egregious actions ranging from deliberately evading questions to approving the <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/01/31/shut-this-story-down-minister-distributed-private-centrelink-data-after-negative-robodebt-media/">release of the personal information</a> to “correct the record”.</p>
<p>Moving past individuals, our focus needs to be on tackling the broader ecosystem that produced “welfare cop”. The phrase speaks powerfully to how we have fallen into a social security system driven by shortcut cultural images, rather than on supporting work, families and care.</p>
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<h2>Taken advantage of</h2>
<p>Most people will not have had time to follow the commission. Media coverage, predictably, surged for “politician days”. They missed the most powerful and important contributions. </p>
<p>Victims of the scheme spoke up for what should matter, what a social security system needs to protect and deliver. Sandra Bevan, a single mother of four boys, who works in disability support, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-16/qld-robodebt-scheme-government-royal-commission-victim/101780890">told us</a> about the experience of correctly reporting income and not being listened to.</p>
<p>It was so traumatic that she swore she would “never access Centrelink benefits ever again”. Bevan is a powerful reminder of where courage, strength and leadership are found in our society.</p>
<p>In the final block, another victim, Matthew Thompson, summed up <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-01/qld-robodebt-scheme-royal-commission-matthew-thompson/102039536">what he felt drove robodebt</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It seems to me that the powerful people are always able to take advantage of vulnerable people, as the gap between rich and poorer increases still. And no matter how many royal commissions we have, that always seems to be the case. And I hope this royal commission can change that.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Holmes could only give <a href="https://twitter.com/DarrenODonovan/status/1630733001624788995">a simple human response</a>. Somehow, all at once, it spoke to her commitment, the limits on her role, the history of royal commissions and the reality of the system as it currently is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m afraid I can’t promise you that. But we’ll do what we can.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In a room in Brisbane, we have learnt of the scale of problems in front of us. Only a broader societal change, not just a royal commission, will ever deliver the change we need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren O'Donovan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Robodebt should never again be framed as a technological glitch or a legal oversight. It was the active and direct exploitation of people’s vulnerability.Darren O'Donovan, Senior Lecturer in Administrative Law, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999292023-02-17T13:24:15Z2023-02-17T13:24:15ZExtra SNAP benefits are ending as US lawmakers resume battle over program that helps low-income Americans buy food<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510712/original/file-20230216-466-mfpujx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C359%2C3194%2C1796&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For some Americans, the decline will be quite sharp.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/clark-resident-jen-valencia-still-works-part-time-for-news-photo/1363541115">Michael Loccisano/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of Americans will find it harder to put enough food on the table starting in March 2023, after a <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/covid-19-emergency-allotments-guidance">COVID-19 pandemic-era boost</a> to <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a> benefits comes to an end. Congress mandated this change in <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/ea-provision-consolidated-appropriations-act-2023">budget legislation</a> it passed in late December 2022.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">Roughly 41 million Americans</a> are currently enrolled in this program, which the government has long used to ease hunger while <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-snap-can-help-people-during-hard-economic-times-like-these-133664">boosting the economy during downturns</a>.</p>
<p>Many families enrolled in the program, commonly known as SNAP but sometimes called food stamps, stand to <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/temporary-pandemic-snap-benefits-will-end-in-remaining-35-states-in-march#_ftn2">lose an average of roughly US$90 per person a month</a>.</p>
<p>While researching SNAP <a href="https://news.richmond.edu/releases/article/-/16856/ur-political-science-professor-awarded-funding-to-advance-book-project-on-history-of-americas-food-stamp-program.html">for an upcoming book</a>, I’ve observed that this program has provided critical assistance to struggling families over the last three years. The extra benefits, which Americans can use to purchase food at the <a href="https://ncoa.org/article/where-can-i-use-snap-benefit">roughly 250,000 stores that accept them</a>, have helped millions of people weather the pandemic’s economic fallout and high inflation rates.</p>
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<h2>SNAP benefits grew during the pandemic</h2>
<p>In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/covid-19-crisis-heaps-pressure-nation-s-food-banks-n1178731">lines at food banks grew</a> and <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2021/article/unemployment-rises-in-2020-as-the-country-battles-the-covid-19-pandemic.htm">millions lost their jobs</a>. One way that <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6201/text">Congress responded was with legislation</a> that let the states, which administer this federally funded program, expand SNAP benefits during the public health emergency.</p>
<p>Under this temporary arrangement, all families who were eligible for SNAP could get the maximum allowable benefit amount for the size of their household. Otherwise, that maximum amount would only be available to people with no income at all. But starting in March 2023, SNAP benefits will once again be distributed everywhere on a sliding scale based on income levels.</p>
<p>Some states began to drop the extra benefits in the spring of 2021. <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/2023-benefit-changes">But 32 states</a> and the District of Columbia were still offering the extra help in February 2023. </p>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.urban.org/research/publication/effect-reevaluated-thrifty-food-plan-and-emergency-allotments-supplemental">study from the Urban Institute</a>, a think tank, estimated that the extra benefits kept 4.2 million people out of poverty at the end of 2021 and had reduced overall poverty in states still offering the benefits by 9.6% and child poverty by 14%. </p>
<p>Although the unemployment rate has recently fallen to the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html">lowest level since 1969</a>, the extra SNAP benefits have continued to help low-income families deal with soaring prices that <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">increased the cost of food consumed at home by 11.3%</a> in the 12 months ending in January 2023.</p>
<p>With more people enrolled in the program today than before the COVID-19 pandemic, and the distribution of extra benefits, SNAP spending reached a <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">record $114 billion</a> in the 12 months that ended in September 2022. </p>
<h2>Looming hunger cliff</h2>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/08/19/a-healthy-reform-to-the-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-updating-the-thrifty-food-plan/">experts on food insecurity</a> have long argued that <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/more-adequate-snap-benefits-would-help-millions-of-participants-better">SNAP benefits have historically been too low</a>.</p>
<p>The Biden administration has already tried to boost them by adjusting the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/snap-benefits-are-rising-for-millions-of-americans-thanks-to-a-long-overdue-thrifty-food-plan-update-167876">Thrifty Food Plan</a>” – the standard the U.S. Department of Agriculture uses to set SNAP benefits based on the cost of a budget-conscious and nutritionally adequate diet.</p>
<p>As a result, benefits rose an average of $36 a month, a <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/news-item/usda-0179.21">21% increase</a>, in October 2021. That increase more than offset the expiration of a <a href="https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2021/03/22/usda-increases-snap-benefits-15-funding-american-rescue-plan">temporary seven-month boost</a> in benefits that Congress had approved earlier that year.</p>
<p>SNAP benefits automatically adjust every October based on the increase in food prices in July as compared with the previous year. In 2022, they increased <a href="https://www.gobankingrates.com/saving-money/food/food-stamps-cola-update-increases-snap-ebt-benefits-starting-oct-1">12.5%</a>. But when prices are rising quickly, as is currently the case, SNAP benefits can lose a lot of ground in the months before the next adjustment.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://frac.org/blog/close-snap-benefit-gaps">advocates for a stronger safety net</a> say that SNAP benefits are too low to meet the needs of low-income people. They are warning of a <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/alice-reznickova/a-hunger-cliff-is-looming-time-to-rethink-nutrition-assistance/">looming hunger cliff</a> – meaning a sharp increase in the number of people who don’t get enough nutritious food to eat – in March 2023, when the extra help ends.</p>
<p>At that point, the lowest-income families will lose <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/changes-2023-benefit-amounts">$95 in benefits a month</a>. But some SNAP participants, such as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/01/25/snap-emergency-allotments-seniors/">many elderly and disabled people</a> who live alone and on fixed incomes and who only qualify for the minimum amount of help, will see their benefits plummet from $281 to $23 a month.</p>
<p>Most people on SNAP who get Social Security benefits will see their <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/changes-2023-benefit-amounts">SNAP benefits fall</a>. That’s because of the <a href="https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01951#">8.7% cost of living increase</a> in Social Security benefits implemented in January 2023, which increases their income and lowers the amount of nutritional assistance they can receive. And some of these Americans may even have enough income that they no longer qualify for SNAP at all.</p>
<p>For an average family of four on SNAP, benefits will <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/a-quick-guide-to-snap-eligibility-and-benefits">fall from the maximum of $939</a> to $718, according to an estimate by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, an anti-poverty research group.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/11/23/us-food-banks-pantries-struggle/10671432002/">Food banks, already under stress</a> because of higher food costs and falling donations, are <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/food-stamps-snap-benefits-cut-in-32-states-emergency-allotments-march-2023/">bracing for higher demand</a>. Food banks in some states that ended the emergency boost in benefits early have seen a <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2022/07/19/more-states-are-forgoing-extra-federal-food-aid">30% increase</a> in need. </p>
<p>More people on SNAP also <a href="https://www.joinpropel.com/in-depth-pandemic-food-benefit-ending">reported skipping meals</a> in the states that dropped extra benefits than those that did not.</p>
<h2>Lawmakers poised to resume a longtime fight</h2>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4077/text">Democrats have proposed legislation</a> to increase SNAP benefits over the long term. But many <a href="https://thefern.org/ag_insider/snap-costs-too-much-program-needs-revisions-say-house-republicans/">Republicans want to reduce spending on SNAP</a> and put more limits on who can get the program’s benefits. </p>
<p>Debate centers around whether unemployed adults deemed capable of working should be able to get SNAP. This argument, <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/short-history-snap">almost as old as the program</a> itself, was largely set aside during the pandemic. </p>
<p>Legislation enacted in early 2020 suspended a requirement that limited benefits for adults under 50 who meet the government’s definition of able-bodied and have no dependents. They can receive no more than three months of SNAP <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/a-quick-guide-to-snap-eligibility-and-benefits">benefits every three years</a> – unless they work or participate in a work-training program at least 20 hours a week. </p>
<p>This time limit will come back when the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-02-09/biden-administration-releases-covid-19-public-health-emergency-transition-road-map">public health emergency ends</a> in May 2023. </p>
<p>But many critics of SNAP have argued the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scaling-back-snap-for-self-reliance-clashes-with-the-original-goals-of-food-stamps-128839">work requirements were never effectively enforced</a>. A <a href="https://www.agri-pulse.com/ext/resources/2023/02/08/Rep.-Gaetz-SNAP-BUDGET-LETTER-to-WH-2.7.23.pdf">few Republicans</a> want to make <a href="https://thefern.org/ag_insider/snap-costs-too-much-program-needs-revisions-say-house-republicans/">tightening restrictions on SNAP benefits</a> a condition for raising the debt ceiling. At this point, it isn’t clear if they will succeed.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/15/snap-food-benefits-end-covid">Debate over SNAP reforms</a> is likely to come up when Congress considers the program as part of broad food and agriculture <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-2018-farm-bill-means-for-urban-suburban-and-rural-america-89605">legislation known as the farm bill</a>. Congress must act to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/02/1151727273/congress-gears-up-for-another-farm-bill-heres-whats-on-the-menu">renew the program before October 2023</a>.</p>
<p>But with the <a href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown">House narrowly controlled by Republicans</a> and the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022">Senate controlled by a slim Democratic majority</a>, I believe it will be hard to make big changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy Roof does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than 41 million people rely on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to buy their groceries. When the COVID-19 pandemic began, the program ramped up.Tracy Roof, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1809752022-11-30T22:34:21Z2022-11-30T22:34:21Z‘You have to beg for help’: how our welfare system pressures people to perform vulnerability<p>People who rely on welfare payments to survive are often required to repeatedly tell stories of their personal hardships.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/07/job-seekers-could-have-welfare-stopped-under-onerous-new-points-based-system-advocates-warn">conditional welfare system</a>, many must regularly attend compulsory appointments, job search training courses, and self-development and treatment programs simply to receive their payments.</p>
<p>People in extreme hardship often tell their stories even more frequently as they seek extra relief from non-government charities and community providers.</p>
<p>Those on income support payments below the relative poverty line feel the crunch of <a href="https://www.ncoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NCOSS_CostOfLiving22_FINAL_DESIGNED.pdf">inflation and rising living costs</a> most severely. This means many will require extra support from welfare services to meet their basic needs.</p>
<p>Integral to this system is the idea of “performing vulnerability”.</p>
<p>“Performing vulnerability” – a term I borrow from UK-based researcher <a href="https://policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/vulnerability-and-young-people">Kate Brown</a> to update Australian academic <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/lowest-rung/FA159318C2D046EDD3C9347C8B8E4F2E">Mark Peel’s</a> idea of “performing poverty” – is not just about repeatedly describing personal hardship. </p>
<p>It points to the expectation to describe hardship in particular ways that are recognisable – and hence believable – to support providers.</p>
<p>My book, <a href="https://policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/making-a-life-on-mean-welfare">Making a Life on Mean Welfare: Voices from Multicultural Sydney</a> shows how the expectation to perform vulnerability to access support shapes experiences on both sides of the welfare frontline. </p>
<p>It can compound the cycle of disadvantage associated with receiving welfare in the long term. It does so by <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0038026119876775">fostering mistrust</a> between welfare users and providers, as well as tainting how people in need of support see themselves and their situation.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-underclass-dont-like-work-our-research-shows-vulnerable-job-seekers-dont-get-the-help-they-need-169609">Australia's 'underclass' don't like work? Our research shows vulnerable job seekers don't get the help they need</a>
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</em>
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<h2>‘Tell me your story’</h2>
<p>For my doctoral research, I spent 18 months speaking to welfare users and workers in culturally and linguistically diverse southwest Sydney. I also observed different aspects of service delivery while volunteering at a community welfare organisation. I interviewed 25 welfare users and 11 community welfare practitioners.</p>
<p>As a researcher of everyday experiences of welfare and poverty, I know all too well what it is like to ask people to tell their stories of hardship yet again.</p>
<p>I also grew up in an impoverished family reliant on welfare to get by. I know firsthand what the impact of retelling stories of hardship can be, particularly when the audience is, as Peel <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/lowest-rung/FA159318C2D046EDD3C9347C8B8E4F2E">puts</a> it, “someone who has the power to give or deny them something they need”.</p>
<p>One of the community welfare practitioners I interviewed summed it up by saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They’re coming again feeling ashamed. They’ve knocked on someone’s door, to tell yet again how shitty their situation is.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Her response was to chat and put them at ease before saying, “Can you tell me your story?” She would follow up by saying, “You’ve given me some insight, let’s formalise your story a little bit.”</p>
<p>Some welfare workers showed more scepticism, particularly when it came to giving out emergency relief. </p>
<p>When someone refused to share more than the minimum information required to be eligible for extra assistance, one welfare worker commented:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>That person doesn’t want to take responsibility. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another practitioner told me, “That woman dramatised her situation,” but quickly added, “That doesn’t mean she wasn’t genuine.”</p>
<p>The willingness of people seeking assistance to disclose personal hardships and do so convincingly impacts on how deserving they may come across to those delivering support. The pressure to perform can overshadow encounters between welfare users and workers even when it doesn’t determine the outcome.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of a hand filling out a paper form" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458084/original/file-20220414-12-xkzgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Repeatedly telling stories of hardship is part of the process of receiving welfare.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘It’s your dignity’</h2>
<p>Among the most marginal welfare recipients I spoke to, “performing vulnerability” was another toll of poverty.</p>
<p>Those experiencing the worst hardship frequently told me about having to explain “the ins and outs” and feeling “embarrassed”, “intimidated” or “uncomfortable” when they had to present to welfare agencies.</p>
<p>Two young people (whom I have given fictional names) powerfully conveyed the cost of telling all about their struggles:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Kane: Often if you go to them sorts of people (welfare agencies) you’ve gotta put it all out there, that you’re homeless, that you got nothing, you got no friends, no family – and then they’re gonna go boom “alright” (you get the help you came for)…</p>
<p>Nessa: Yeah, that’s what I had to do to get a house and it’s embarrassing (talking over each other) I think it’s embarrassing.</p>
<p>Kane: You gotta go down to those levels you know – it’s wrong.</p>
<p>Nessa: When you gotta expose everything and don’t want to, it’s, like, your dignity.</p>
<p>Kane: Yeah, it’s everything.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Performing is not pretending</h2>
<p>The most marginal welfare users get a great deal of practice performing their hardship. But knowing how to tell their story a certain way is not the same as pretending.</p>
<p>Not only do people at the sharp end of the welfare system have to endure the hardships of poverty, but they must then recite it in a way that registers as genuine, pressing and beyond reprieve.</p>
<p>As a woman living on the disability support pension put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You don’t have the flexibility that a rich person has to respond to crisis, so you have to beg for help. That takes time! And you know you’ll be judged like it’s your fault.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A welfare system that demands disclosure of personal hardships – even when geared towards being <a href="https://onlinelibrary-wiley-com.ezproxy.uws.edu.au/doi/full/10.1111/1468-4446.12740">supportive</a> rather than suspicious – can undermine dignity and hold back those unwilling or unable to tell their story convincingly or in enough detail.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disability-and-single-parenthood-loom-large-in-inherited-poverty-123086">Disability and single parenthood loom large in inherited poverty</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180975/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.</span></em></p>As a woman living on the disability support pension put it: ‘You don’t have the flexibility that a rich person has to respond to crisis, so you have to beg for help. And you know you’ll be judged’.Emma Mitchell, Postdoctoral research fellow, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923712022-10-13T18:57:37Z2022-10-13T18:57:37ZSoaring inflation prompts biggest Social Security cost-of-living boost since 1981 – 6 questions answered <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489641/original/file-20221013-11-56zp8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=159%2C199%2C6243%2C4178&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social Security benefits have lost their purchasing power as inflation has soared in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/senior-man-with-face-mask-buying-vegetables-in-royalty-free-image/1257463364?phrase=retiree%20shopping">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Social Security is set to <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2022/#10-2022-2">boost the benefits it provides retirees</a> by 8.7%, the biggest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. It comes as sky-high inflation continues to eat into incomes and savings.</em></p>
<p><em>The changes are set to take effect in January 2023 and were announced following the release of the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">September 2022 consumer price index report</a>, which showed inflation <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-september-weekly-jobless-claims-2022-10-13/">climbing more than expected</a> during the month, by 0.4%.</em></p>
<p><em>The automatic adjustment will surely come as a relief to tens of millions of retirees and those who receive <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/">supplemental security income</a> who may be struggling to afford basic necessities as inflation has accelerated throughout 2022. But an annual adjustment wasn’t always the case – and other government benefits and programs deal with inflation differently.</em></p>
<p><em>John Diamond, who <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond">directs the Center for Public Finance at Rice’s Baker Institute</a>, explains the history of the Social Security cost-of-living, or COLA, increase, what other benefits are adjusted for inflation and why the government makes these changes.</em></p>
<h2>1. How fast is the cost of living rising?</h2>
<p>The latest data, for September, shows <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">average consumer prices are up 8.2%</a> from a year earlier. The monthly gain of 0.4% was double what economists <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-september-weekly-jobless-claims-2022-10-13/">surveyed by Reuters had expected</a>. </p>
<p>More troubling, so-called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL">core inflation</a> – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – gained even more in September, ticking up by 0.6%. Core inflation is a measure that’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inflation-figure-that-the-fed-follows-closely-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html">closely watched by the Federal Reserve</a>, as it helps show how pervasive and persistent inflation has become in the economy. </p>
<h2>2. How are Social Security benefits adjusted for inflation?</h2>
<p>Automatic adjustments to Social Security benefits began in 1975 after President Richard Nixon signed the 1972 <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/1972amend.html">Social Security amendments</a> into law.</p>
<p>Before 1975, Congress had to act each year to increase benefits to offset the effects of inflation. But this was an inefficient system, as politics would often be injected into a simple economic decision. Under this system, an increase in benefits <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/50mm2.html">could be too small</a> or too large, or could fail to happen at all if one party blocked the change entirely.</p>
<p>Not to mention that with the baby boomers – those born from 1946 to 1964 – entering the labor force it was already clear that Social Security would face long-term funding issues in the future, and so <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally1972b.html">putting the program on autopilot</a> reduced the political risk faced by politicians. </p>
<p>Since then, benefits have climbed automatically by the average increase in consumer prices during the third quarter of a given year from the same period 12 months earlier. This is based on a <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SA0#0">version of the consumer price index</a> meant to estimate price changes for working people and has been rising slightly faster than the overall pace of inflation.</p>
<p>While helpful, these inflation adjustments are backward-looking and imperfect. For example, 2022 Social Security benefits <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/cola/">increased by 5.9%</a> from the previous year, even though inflation throughout this year <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#0">has been significantly higher</a> – which means the higher benefits weren’t covering the higher cost of living. Thus, the 2023 increase in benefits primarily offsets what was lost over the previous year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white hand holds a card reading social security" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Millions of retirees and other will soon see a big jump in their Social Security benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SocialSecurity/6a2e67a3cc6849b8857dee55fa6005ae/photo?Query=inflation&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8106&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Jenny Kane</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>3. Are the benefits taxable?</h2>
<p>A growing portion of Social Security benefits are taxed in the same way as ordinary income, except at different threshold with various caps and percentages. <a href="https://www.socialsecurityintelligence.com/inflation-social-security/">Only 8% of benefits were subject to taxation</a> in 1984, but that’s climbed to almost 50% in recent years. That percentage will likely continue to increase as the taxable thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. </p>
<p>For example, if an individual filer’s income, including benefits, is below US$25,000, <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/dont-forget-social-security-benefits-may-be-taxable">none of that is taxed</a>. But up to 50% of a person’s benefits may be taxed at incomes of $25,000 to $34,000. After that, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxed. </p>
<p>Such a big increase in Social Security benefits likely means some people who paid no tax will now have to pay some, while others will see larger increases in their tax liability. </p>
<h2>4. Why does the government adjust benefits for inflation?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/soaring-inflation-to-hit-britain-harder-than-any-other-major-economy-boe-warns">Rapid gains of inflation</a>, like the kind the U.S. and many other countries are currently experiencing, can have significant impacts on the finances of households and businesses. </p>
<p>For example, it might mean seniors cutting back on heating or food. Government policies generally try to account for this to reduce the negative impacts that rising prices can have on those with limited or fixed resources.</p>
<p>In addition, reducing the impacts of price changes creates a more efficient and fair allocation of resources and reduces the arbitrary outcomes that would otherwise occur.</p>
<h2>5. What other government programs typically get a COLA?</h2>
<p>Other government programs and benefits also increase to account for inflation. </p>
<p>The U.S. Department of Agriculture <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/allotment/COLA">estimates the cost of its Thrifty Food Plan</a> each June and adjusts Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP benefits – formerly known as food stamps – in October of each year. Beginning in October 2022, food stamp benefits <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/30/politics/snap-food-stamps-benefits-inflation-increase/index.html">rose by 12.5%</a>, which helps make up for the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL#0">largest increases in food prices since the 1970s</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, the federal <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/topics/poverty-economic-mobility/poverty-guidelines">poverty level is adjusted</a> for changes in the consumer price index annually by the Department of Health and Human Services, an adjustment that affects a number of government-provided benefits, such as housing benefits, health insurance and others, including SNAP benefits.</p>
<h2>6. Does the tax system also adjust for inflation?</h2>
<p>While some aspects of the tax code adjust for inflation, others do not. </p>
<p>For example, income tax bracket thresholds, the size of the standard deduction, alternative minimum tax parameters and estate tax provisions <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2022">all increase annually for inflation</a>. That means come tax filing season next year, U.S. tax filers will likely see big changes in all these items. </p>
<p>But examples of provisions that are not adjusted for inflation include the maximum value of the child tax credit and the $10,000 cap on the deduction of state and local taxes. In addition, the threshold that determines who is liable for the net investment income tax – the additional 3.8% tax on investment and passive income for taxpayers above a certain income level – doesn’t adjust, which means each year more individuals are subject to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192371/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John W. Diamond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social Security is increasing benefits by 8.7%, beginning in January 2023, to offset the surging cost of living in the US.John W. Diamond, Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1758792022-06-27T12:25:53Z2022-06-27T12:25:53ZSocial Security benefits play key role in preventing older Americans from lacking enough quality food<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468321/original/file-20220610-39156-lh3vlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=241%2C60%2C6468%2C4406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social Security makes it more likely the elderly have enough food.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/cheerful-mature-couple-having-fun-while-eating-royalty-free-image/1164678611">skynesher/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em> </p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Social Security benefits make it easier for older Americans to afford the food they need to live a healthy, active life, according to <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13218">our recently published research</a>. </p>
<p>Although this finding may seem obvious, to our knowledge this is the first study to directly examine the link between income from Social Security in old age and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-food-insecurity-152746">food insecurity</a>, whereby a household can’t get adequate food because it has insufficient money and other resources.</p>
<p>We used data from a unique national household survey, the <a href="https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu">Panel Study of Income Dynamics</a>, to examine changes in the ability of a household to purchase food from year to year. We focused on how just under 1,000 households receiving Social Security benefits for the first time or experiencing an increase in Social Security benefits affected their food insecurity. </p>
<p>We found that becoming a Social Security beneficiary for the first time lowers the odds of food insecurity by 54%. After that, an increase in benefits by 10% reduced the probability of someone’s being food insecure by over half a percentage point, we found.</p>
<p>Another way to put this: We estimate that if overall benefits were increased by 10%, about half a million senior citizens would no longer be food insecure. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, in our view, the debate over Security Security isn’t whether or how much to increase benefits <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/politics/social-security-medicare-report/index.html">but how much to cut them</a>. </p>
<p>That’s because the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which funds benefits, <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/">is expected to be depleted</a> by 2034, at which point Social Security taxes alone will cover just 77% of scheduled benefits.</p>
<p>Social Security <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html">was originally conceived</a> in 1934 as a way to cut poverty among older Americans. Researchers have <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w10466">previously shown</a> that receiving Social Security income indeed reduces overall levels of poverty among older Americans, but they didn’t explicitly look at the impact on food security.</p>
<p>Since aging is often associated with increased medical expenses, these additional costs may offset any income gains seen from Social Security. Older adults with limited incomes may need to make difficult choices about what expenses to cover and may choose to prioritize health care expenses over food expenses.</p>
<p>Currently, <a href="https://hungerandhealth.feedingamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020-The-State-of-Senior-Hunger-in-2018.pdf">11% of adults age 60 or older</a> are food insecure, which is a little higher than the <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-u-s/key-statistics-graphics/">10.5% for all U.S. households</a>. Seniors can begin receiving Social Security benefits as soon as age 62.</p>
<p>Our study suggests that cutting Social Security benefits would be likely to cause more retirees to struggle to access the food they need and push more retirees to enroll in government-sponsored programs such as SNAP, which provide funds to purchase food. </p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>The impact of receiving Social Security benefits varies from group to group. </p>
<p>The small sample size of the data set we used limited our ability to fully explore this. Continuing this research using a larger nationally representative data set such as the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps.html">Current Population Survey</a> could make it possible to explore this issue in more detail across different groups of people. </p>
<p>In addition, we did not explore exactly how Social Security benefits reduce food insecurity. Social Security benefits may have direct impacts by boosting income overall or by reducing fluctuations in income from month to month, allowing people to consistently acquire more healthy food. Social Security benefits may also affect food insecurity through indirect channels by improving physical or mental health. Future research that captures more detailed information about health and getting Social Security benefits could explore these impacts more closely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Mitra receives funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and
Nutrition Service. She is currently a visiting research scholar at the Center for Health and Wellbeing at Princeton University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Debra Brucker receives funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Social Security Administration.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Jajtner receives funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Social Security Administration. </span></em></p>Higher Social Security benefits can significantly reduce the odds of an older person’s being food insecure.Sophie Mitra, Professor of economics, Fordham UniversityDebra Brucker, Research Associate Professor at Institute on Disability, University of New HampshireKatie Jajtner, Assistant Scientist, Center for Demography of Health and Aging, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838512022-06-01T15:04:27Z2022-06-01T15:04:27ZZimbabwe’s 2023 elections: how to judge candidates’ social protection promises<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465668/original/file-20220527-17-v9r9jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Traders examine bales of tobacco, which is among Zimbabwe's key exports, at a March 2022 auction in Harare.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Aaron Ufumeli</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Zimbabwe is heading for general polls <a href="https://www.eisa.org/calendar-comprehensive.php">in 2023</a> amid an ongoing macroeconomic crisis. In the decade starting from 2001, the state-led economy started to show <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-inflation-idUSL1992587420070919">signs of strain</a>. Unemployment <a href="https://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp197654.pdf?iframe">reached 85%</a>. Inflation, which was a staggering <a href="https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/Hanke_zimbabwe_091708.pdf">79,000,000%</a> in 2008, came down but has been rising in the <a href="https://take-profit.org/en/statistics/inflation-rate/zimbabwe/">past two years</a>. It is still <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/inflation-cpi">among the highest in the world</a>.</p>
<p>The economic crisis has heightened the vulnerability of households and the need for social protection to prevent hunger among poor households, complement the risk mitigation mechanisms of informal workers, and improve access to social services such as education, health and water.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-informal-sector-organisations-in-zimbabwe-shape-notions-of-citizenship-180455">How informal sector organisations in Zimbabwe shape notions of citizenship</a>
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<p>It is highly unlikely that the formal economy will turn the tide soon to create formal employment, which is vital for the stability of household income, and reduce the need to support food insecure households. </p>
<p>In the last presidential election in 2018, several presidential candidates promised to provide social protection for citizens.</p>
<p>The ruling party, <a href="https://webcms.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/495/country_documents-2020/Zimbabwe/ZANU_PF_2018_MANIFESTO_ENGLISH_%20(39.51).pdf">Zanu-PF promised</a> to create safety nets and enhance access to health and education services. Safety nets are also called <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29115">social assistance</a> and typically include cash and food transfers, public works, subsidies and fee waivers for education and health.</p>
<p>The Zanu-PF government’s safety net package includes cash transfers to <a href="https://social-assistance.africa.undp.org/data">52,049 households</a>, public monthly maintenance allowances in form of food and or cash to <a href="https://social-assistance.africa.undp.org/data">6,688 households</a> and paltry tuition grants and examination fee subsidies <a href="https://www.zimbabwesituation.com/news/outcry-over-paltry-beam-allocations/">for underprivileged students</a>. </p>
<p>The main opposition party, MDC-Alliance (now <a href="https://www.facebook.com/CitizensCoalition4Change">Citizens Coalition for Change</a>), promised to bolster social protection and <a href="https://t792ae.c2.acecdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MDC-ALLIANCE-SMART-MANIFESTO.pdf">reform the National Social Security Authority</a>. The terms <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_604882/lang--en/index.html">“social protection” and “social security”</a> are used interchangeably, and typically include social assistance and social insurance measures.</p>
<p>Little-known opposition parties also made promises. For instance, the <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/People%E2%80%99s_Rainbow_Coalition">People’s Rainbow Coalition</a> promised to <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/povonews/peoples-rainbow-coalition-2018-election-manifesto-idea">provide social security</a>, and the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/APAZimbabwe">Alliance for the People’s Agenda</a> undertook to <a href="https://t792ae.c2.acecdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/APA-Manifesto-2018.pdf">deliver social packages</a> such as support for education and health care.</p>
<p>As Zimbabwe heads for 2023 presidential elections, due to be held on <a href="http://www.news.cn/english/africa/2021-11/11/c_1310303313.html">23 April 2023</a>, new or recycled promises will be made to voters. </p>
<p>Voters must judge candidates by the soundness of their promises to improve the reach of cash and food transfers to poor households, extend social insurance coverage to informal workers, and facilitate access to education, health and water for all citizens.</p>
<h2>What’s in place</h2>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.undp.org/africa/publications/state-social-assistance-africa-report">researched</a> <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/social-protection-operational-tool-humanitarian-development-and-peace-nexus-linkages">social protection</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2516602620936028">in Zimbabwe and beyond</a> for the past decade. There are a few key social protection measures to consider. Among them are social insurance, such as pension, sickness, maternity and unemployment benefits. These depend on contributions from formal economy workers and their employers. </p>
<p>The coverage of the Harmonised Social Cash Transfers programme is <a href="https://social-assistance.africa.undp.org/data">limited to 52,049 households</a>. So, it covers only 6% of the food insecure households. But over four million Zimbabweans, out of a population of <a href="https://populationstat.com/zimbabwe/">15 million</a>, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/zimbabwe/press-releases/zimbabwe-rated-one-worlds-top-global-food-crises-new-united-nations-report">are food insecure</a>.</p>
<p>The flagship social assistance programme gives households between US$20-50 bimonthly, depending on household size.</p>
<p>Since inception in 2011, the programme has covered <a href="https://socialprotection.org/discover/programmes/harmonised-social-cash-transfer-hsct">less than 20 districts</a>. There are 59 districts in Zimbabwe and all have food insecure households. </p>
<p>Then there’s <a href="https://www.nssa.org.zw/news-blogs/talking-social-security/schemes-for-social-protection/">social insurance</a> which covers pensions and worker compensation. But this doesn’t cover the risks faced by most workers as it only applies to formal employment. Only 15% of Zimbabweans are employed in the formal economy while 85% work in the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2020-09-16-outlook-for-informal-economy-in-zimbabwe-is-dire-after-harsh-covid-19-response/">informal economy</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/insights-from-zimbabwe-on-how-to-link-formal-and-informal-economies-182353">Insights from Zimbabwe on how to link formal and informal economies</a>
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<p>Many informal workers create their own risk mitigation mechanisms such as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0020872815611196">burial societies</a> or subscribe to funeral insurance policies to cover funeral expenses, which can be as high as their <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11150-020-09498-8">yearly income</a>. </p>
<p>Another cost that could be covered by social protection is school fees. According to the Zimbabwe National Vulnerability Assessment Committee <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/zimbabwe-vulnerability-assessment-committee-zimvac-2020-rural-livelihoods-assessment">2020 report</a>, 50.3% of children of school-going age were sent away from school in the first term of 2020 because they could not pay fees. </p>
<p>The report also notes that 75% of all rural residents who are chronically ill miss their medication because they cannot afford it. </p>
<p>In the short-term, social protection must focus on fee waivers to improve access to education and health care services for all citizens. In the medium term, all these critical social services must be brought within acceptable travelling distances.</p>
<h2>Lessons from elsewhere</h2>
<p>A number of countries in Southern African Development Community region have national social cash transfers for all vulnerable people of a certain demographic group. For instance, in Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa, older people receive an <a href="https://social-assistance.africa.undp.org/data">old age grant</a>.</p>
<p>Some governments in Africa complement the risk mitigation mechanisms of informal workers. For instance, the Rwandan government adds a matching contribution plus life and funeral insurance policies on the contributions that informal workers make <a href="https://ejoheza.gov.rw/ltss-registration-ui/landing.xhtml;jsessionid=BFC430CED41625AEB78C47507D381B8C">towards their pension</a>.</p>
<p>In Ghana, the government contributes 5% to the new national pension scheme, which <a href="https://www.ssnit.org.gh/faq/the-new-pension-scheme/#:%7E:text=The%20new%20National%20Pension%20Scheme,benefits%20as%20and%20when%20due.&text=The%20New%20Pension%20Scheme%20was,implementation%20started%20in%20January%202010">includes informal workers</a>.</p>
<p>Free access to education has had positive impact on enrolment in <a href="https://world-education-blog.org/2016/01/27/can-africa-afford-free-education/#:%7E:text=Among%20the%2053%20countries%20with,of%20Tanzania%20and%20Uganda%20show">Kenya, Malawi and Uganda</a>. There are fee waivers for health care in countries such as <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29115">Eswatini and Burundi</a>.</p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>It’s important to address two issues when it comes to social protection in Zimbabwe.</p>
<p>The first is the lingering view that social protection creates a dependency syndrome – not only in Zimbabwe, but Africa-wide. This <a href="https://academic.oup.com/wbro/article/33/2/259/5127165">myth has been busted</a> by scientific evidence showing that cash transfers do not lead to fewer people seeking jobs.</p>
<p>The second is whether the state can afford to finance the extension of social protection to all food insecure households. </p>
<p>In a constrained macroeconomic environment such as Zimbabwe’s, funding social protection among other competing needs is about budget priorities more than it is an issue of sourcing new revenue.</p>
<p>Where there is high unemployment and food insecurity, it is socially and legally justified for the poor to depend on social assistance as it is their right, for which the government must be held accountable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gift Dafuleya does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Zimbabwe heads for 2023 presidential elections, there are key things voters should watch out for in the social protection promises made by candidates.Gift Dafuleya, Lecturer in Economics, University of VendaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711312021-11-25T14:32:16Z2021-11-25T14:32:16ZEfforts to protect the poor during COVID: how five African countries fared<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432332/original/file-20211117-21-c24685.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rosa Eugenia uses a capulana masks produced at a small sewing workshop in Maputo, Mozambique.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Ricardo Franco</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The number of people living in poverty around the world is estimated to <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/precarity-and-pandemic#:%7E:text=COVID%2D19%20and%20poverty%20incidence,and%20severity%20in%20developing%20countries&text=We%20conclude%20there%20could%20be,lines%20of%20%243.20%20and%20%245.50">have increased by half a billion people</a> due to the COVID-19 crisis. The African continent has suffered at least US$100 billion in economic costs in 2020, measured by the reduction in trade revenues and financial flows <a href="https://set.odi.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Economic-impacts-of-and-policy-responses-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-early-evidence-from-Africa.pdf">due to the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty">Many studies</a> have been undertaken to evaluate the effects of the pandemic in Africa. But there’s little evidence of what difference tax-and-benefit systems made to poverty before or during the crisis. Two areas of government policy form the tax and benefit system. First, governments support people through various social benefits such as cash transfers. At the same time they tax households.</p>
<p>Our new <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2021-148-mitigating-role-tax-benefit-rescue-packages-poverty-inequality-Africa-COVID-19.pdf">study</a> closes the gap in assessing the impact of COVID-19. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/studying-covid-19-through-lens-microsimulation">estimated</a> the impact of the crisis on earnings and showed how earnings losses, together with tax-benefit policies, affected households’ disposable income, and thereby poverty and inequality in each country.</p>
<p>We also looked at the effect of measures taken by governments in response to the crisis, such as emergency income support and tax waivers. The impact of pausing existing social protection schemes as a consequence of lockdowns and social distancing policies also came into our analysis.</p>
<p>Our assessment covered five sub-Saharan African countries: Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that existing tax-and-benefit systems had a negligible effect in cushioning against income losses in 2020. But these varied. In Mozambique, policies did protect poor households from large income losses. But they only marginally cushioned the population-wide rise in poverty and inequality using the internationally comparable absolute poverty line of US $1.9 per day.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the case of <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/distributional-effects-covid-19-pandemic-ghana">Ghana</a> illustrates how lockdown measures can hurt the delivery of ongoing social protection measures. The country’s pause of the large national school feeding program dwarfed the positive impact of other policy measures.</p>
<p>The systems largely failed on two fronts. They didn’t automatically pay (more) social benefits to households that saw large income shocks. And they didn’t reduce tax payments levied on those households that saw a more limited income shock.</p>
<h2>Similarities and differences</h2>
<p>Developed countries have what are so-called <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/07/02/what-are-automatic-stabilizers/">“automatic stabilisers”</a>. These are operated through large scale unemployment insurance systems and social benefit systems tied to income levels. As people’s incomes fall or go to zero during economic crises these systems automatically trigger a benefit payment thus mitigating more or less immediately a substantial portion of the income loss suffered by households.</p>
<p>In the African countries the analysed automatic stabilisers operated mainly through marginally reduced tax and social insurance contributions. This provided relief only for a limited number of households because it affected higher-income households working in the formal sector. They paid less taxes and social insurance contributions due to reduced earnings.</p>
<p>In the models that we built we separated out the direct effects of the pandemic from the effects of new policies and the general tax-and-benefit system. But we qualified the direct effects of the pandemic (including lockdown measures but also other factors) by looking at changes in economic activity across industries.</p>
<p>The five countries make for an interesting comparison.</p>
<p>They all have a large informal sector and low social protection coverage. They also registered the first cases of COVID-19 around March 2020. But, the intensity and effects of lockdown measures they used varied considerably, as did the effects of trade shocks, investment changes and consumer behaviour. </p>
<p>One contribution of our study is to assess how these “direct” effects on the economy, taken together, varied across countries.</p>
<p>The countries also differ in the scope and nature of tax-benefit measures taken in response to the crisis. The discretionary actions adopted in 2020 and their impacts varied substantially across the five countries. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Mozambique: the policies did protect poor households from large income losses. But when looking at the whole population, the policies only marginally cushioned the rise in poverty and inequality.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/distributional-effects-covid-19-pandemic-ghana">Ghana</a> shows how lockdown measures can hurt the delivery of ongoing social protection measures. Pausing the large national <a href="https://www.unicef.org/ghana/press-releases/nutrition-crisis-looms-globally-more-39-billion-school-meals-missed-start-covid-19">school feeding programme</a> dwarfed the positive impact of other policy measures.</p></li>
<li><p>Uganda and Tanzania: no significant policies were adopted last year.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Making the most out of the available</h2>
<p>Our study was constrained by the lack of detailed data on households. This included information on how employment and earnings changed during the crisis. The crisis also disrupted standard data collection activities. For example, full-scale household surveys covering the time of the pandemic have not yet been collected for most countries. And the few that have been collected are just becoming available.</p>
<p>Our research addresses this challenge by estimating how economic activity in different sectors developed in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic trends, and <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/deriving-shocks-household-consumption-expenditures-associated-income-shocks-resulting">translating these shocks to household-level incomes</a>. </p>
<p>We found that agriculture, one of the most important sectors in all countries analysed, did not experience a reduction in 2020 compared to its historical trend. Service sectors were hit hard in each of the five countries.</p>
<p>To check the <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/imputation-methods-adjusting-southmod-input-data-income-losses-due-covid-19-crisis">robustness of our approach</a>, we used individual-level data <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2020/11/11/covid-19-high-frequency-monitoring-dashboard">World Bank’s phone surveys</a> in Uganda. This is one of the few countries where more detailed data is available to compare against.</p>
<p>Another major challenge we encountered was the lack of organised official sources of detailed information about the discretionary policies implemented in response to the crisis. </p>
<h2>Policy implications</h2>
<p>Our findings show that governments in sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, face a daunting challenge in protecting the livelihoods of their citizens from a protracted crisis. </p>
<p>They face similar challenges regarding future shocks given the limited scale and coverage of existing tax and social protection policies.</p>
<p>To properly understand and manage the effects of COVID-19 and of future crises, improved data collection practices and capacities should be a priority for African governments.</p>
<p>But for now, with the worsening COVID-19 <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus">crisis in 2021</a>, slow <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/less-10-african-countries-hit-key-covid-19-vaccination-goal">vaccination campaigns</a>, and generally <a href="https://social-assistance.africa.undp.org/">low levels of social protection</a>, the introduction of additional benefits in 2021 will be fundamental to protecting poor households in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>In the long run, supporting the growth of the formal sector will be essential to increasing tax revenues to better protect society’s most vulnerable. It will also help to harness the potential of tax-benefit systems to stabilise household incomes, and ultimately improve governments’ ability to respond to future crises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Study shows that agriculture, one of the most important sectors, did not decline in 2020 compared to its historical trend. Service sectors were hit hard in each of the five countries.Jesse Lastunen, Research Associate, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityPia Rattenhuber, Research Fellow, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityRodrigo Carvalho Oliveira, Research Associate, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1698662021-10-15T10:19:11Z2021-10-15T10:19:11ZWhat can be done to tackle the systemic causes of poverty in South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426476/original/file-20211014-16-rg6po2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ederies Samodien offers a child apples at a shack settlement as part of a poverty relief effort in Cape Town. Almost 56% of South Africans live in poverty.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite gains <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/poverty/33EF03BB-9722-4AE2-ABC7-AA2972D68AFE/Global_POVEQ_ZAF.pdf">made in the first 15 years of democracy</a>, <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/Report-03-10-06/Report-03-10-062015.pdf">55.5% of South Africans</a> lived below the poverty line as of 2015. Coupled with <a href="https://cramsurvey.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/1.-Spaull-N.-Daniels-R.-C-et-al.-2021-NIDS-CRAM-Wave-5-Synthesis-Report.pdf">the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>, household food insecurity, child hunger, and extraordinarily <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02112ndQuarter2021.pdf">high youth unemployment levels</a> have eroded the early gains made.</p>
<p>The country’s expansive <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/services-residents/social-benefits">social grants system</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/uif/uif-unemployment-benefits">insurance schemes</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/social-benefits/social-relief-distress">social relief</a> are important mechanisms for ameliorating these challenges. But they need to go further. And the country should tackle the root causes of poverty, which are systemic. This means they cannot be shifted with a single intervention. That’s because cycles of disadvantage accumulate over long periods, generate multiple barriers, and are transferred across generations.</p>
<h2>Poverty among young people</h2>
<p>Take the case of young people who are not in employment, education or training (<a href="https://www.dhet.gov.za/Planning%20Monitoring%20and%20Evaluation%20Coordination/Fact-sheet-on-NEETs-Final-Version-27-Jan-2017.pdf">NEET</a>). They are perhaps among the most vulnerable to lifelong poverty. Most <a href="http://www.opensaldru.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11090/963/2019_249_Saldruwp.pdf?sequence=1">NEET youth</a> are black Africans. They are income poor, have no post-secondary education, and live in households in which nobody works.</p>
<p><a href="http://137.158.104.7/bitstream/handle/11090/968/2019_253_Saldruwp.pdf?sequence=3">Research into the agency and resilience of NEET youth</a> found that they face multiple barriers as they attempt to secure their first job. This makes it difficult to choose between household income going to food or seeking work. They may also live far away from learning and income earning opportunities. They may have their own or other people’s children at home, or older people to care for, with few options for high-quality, low-cost care support.</p>
<p>The research found that young people try multiple strategies to make something of their lives, but are continuously derailed by a number of barriers. The end result is that some of them give up the search for work. They may even suffer poor mental health, which further erodes the possibility of escaping the poverty trap.</p>
<h2>Childhood poverty</h2>
<p>But the cycle of disadvantage begins much earlier in life, indicating the systemic and multilayered nature of poverty and disadvantage. One of our <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/sarchi-welsocdev/Documents/COP%20research%20brief.pdf">studies</a> at the University of Johannesburg assessed children in the foundation grades R and 1 (most between the ages of 6 and 8) in five schools in Johannesburg’s poorest wards. It shows that many face multiple barriers that negatively affect their well-being. </p>
<p>These barriers include food insecurity, poverty-related depression among their caregivers, or lack of access to health screening to ensure they can see and hear to be able to learn. These poverty-related barriers are likely to keep them trapped in a vicious cycle of disadvantage for the rest of their lives.</p>
<p>South Africa has invested significantly in a social wage package that includes <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/services-residents/social-benefits">social grants</a>, free basic education, healthcare, and basic services. A recent World Bank report <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/238611633430611402/south-africa-social-assistance-programs-and-systems-review">shows</a> that these have been incredibly important in limiting inequality and alleviating the worst effects of poverty. But, as the report also states,</p>
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<p>there appears to be no overt consideration of or attempt to align [social grants] with South Africa’s systemic development challenges.</p>
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<p>What the report is referring to is the need to connect the most vulnerable people with a range of public services that can address the multiple barriers poverty creates. This is crucial if South Africa is to tackle the systemic nature of poverty and disadvantage.</p>
<p>The connection of vulnerable people to a range of public services can be done through integrating public services at a national level. For instance, social grant beneficiaries could automatically be eligible for, and be informed of, complementary services such as public employment support through the <a href="http://www.labour.gov.za/About-Us/Pages/PUBLIC-EMPLOYMENT-SERVICES.aspx">Department of Labour</a>.</p>
<p>Government is considering integrating social protection with other services so that existing services and investments can have a deeper impact on poverty.</p>
<p>Such integration also needs to exist at the local level, through communities of practice. These are innovative communities of researchers and practitioners, service agencies and service users that devise breakthrough ideas and solutions to protracted problems. This approach, also called <a href="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/collective_impact">collective impact</a> by researchers, is used around the world.</p>
<h2>Communities of practice for children and families</h2>
<p>We are <a href="https://communitiesforchildwellbeing.org/">testing</a> how such communities of practice can improve outcomes for vulnerable children and NEET youth. <a href="https://communitiesforchildwellbeing.org/">The Community of Practice for Social Systems Strengthening to Improve Child Well-being Outcomes</a> (led by Professor Leila Patel) is under way. It aims to promote collaboration across different sectors to better address the complex and multiple needs of children growing up in poverty. It also aims to develop innovative, collaborative and breakthrough solutions to promote better outcomes for them.</p>
<p>In the first phase from February to November 2020 the communities of practice consortium of partners <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/sarchi-welsocdev/Documents/COP%20research%20brief.pdf">assessed</a> a sample of children who were receiving the <a href="https://www.sassa.gov.za/Pages/Child-Support-Grant.aspx">child support grant</a> and were in the foundation years of schooling. That’s because targeted interventions in nutrition, health and education at this developmental stage could result in positive outcomes for children, families and communities. </p>
<p>After <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/sarchi-welsocdev/Documents/COP%20research%20brief.pdf">gathering data</a> for 162 children’s health, home circumstances, psycho-social functioning, and school and learning experiences, potential interventions were identified that could mitigate the risks they face.</p>
<p>These interventions, rolled out in the course of 2021, considered the multilayered nature of poverty and the range of interventions a child may need. Local-level communities of practice designed action plans based on each child’s situation. These groups consist of teachers, principals, social workers, educational psychologists, community-based nurses and other health workers, and NGOs in the relevant community or school.</p>
<p>These groups work collaboratively with the schools and, crucially, with caregivers whose children have been identified as needing extra support. That includes everything from arranging eye and hearing screenings to referring families to food support programmes, and ensuring that teachers are better equipped to improve children’s numeracy and literacy.</p>
<p>Drawing on the data from our communities of practice study, we also designed and delivered educational messaging, via community radio, on promoting parental involvement in children’s education, nutrition, financial education and tips for parents and other caregivers.</p>
<p>At the time of writing the communities of practice had ensured that 50 children’s vaccinations were completed; 30 had educational assessments, with recommendations about learning support provided to schools. Twenty-five families identified as having struggles at home were referred to <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/csda/Documents/CSDA%20_%20Sihleng%27imizi%20_%20FULL%20REPORT%20_%20ConnectCashwithCare%20_%20July%202020%20_%20Web.pdf">Sihleng’imizi</a>, a family strengthening programme. </p>
<p>Caregivers who showed depressive symptoms received follow-up visits by social workers based in each school, and were to be referred to the <a href="https://www.sadag.org/">South African Depression and Anxiety Group</a>. We are collecting follow-up data to understand what changes have been observed.</p>
<h2>A promising approach</h2>
<p>The results of the child well-being project suggest that communities of practice may improve outcomes by referring children and caregivers to whichever services they need to overcome the barrier they are facing at a given time. They can also be a basis upon which to connect social grant recipients to complementary services that can unlock the multiple barriers that people living in poverty face.</p>
<p>A similar approach will soon be applied to NEET youth. The <a href="https://www.saldru.uct.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/BPS_summary_report_14_05_2020-for-web.pdf">Basic Package of Support</a> programme will pilot communities of practice in three communities. It will bring together local colleges, work-seeker support programmes, health and mental health support facilities, childcare programmes and food support programmes, among others, to collaboratively learn about the challenges that these youth face, and how to better support them. </p>
<p>Such an approach promises to ensure that young people can connect to the wide range of services and opportunities they need to break down the many barriers they face as they seek to move into learning and earning.</p>
<p>This approach, as our research projects and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3864128/">examples from elsewhere</a> prove, is a valuable way to tackle some of the conditions that contribute to poverty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leila Patel receives funding from the Department of Science and Technology (DST) and the National Research Foundation (NRF) for her Chair in Welfare and Social Development, and the University of Johannesburg. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Graham receives funding from the National Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences, the British Academy, and the Capacity Building Programme for Employment Promotion via the University of Cape Town. </span></em></p>There’s a crucial need to connect the most vulnerable people with public services in order to tackle systemic poverty and disadvantage. An integrated approach is key.Leila Patel, Professor of Social Development Studies, University of JohannesburgLauren Graham, Associate professor at the Centre for Social Development in Africa, University of Johannesburg, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1655412021-08-12T14:48:55Z2021-08-12T14:48:55ZSouth Africa’s basic income versus jobs debate: a false dilemma<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414840/original/file-20210805-13-1mlszx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An unemployed man collects trash for resale in Diepsloot Johannesburg. Calls are growing for a basic income grant for poor South Africans.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Once considered a utopian ideal, a basic income guarantee has become a distinct political possibility, as the South African government scrambles to respond to <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-pandemic-has-triggered-a-rise-in-hunger-in-south-africa-164581">growing hunger</a>, and <a href="https://africasacountry.com/2021/08/a-terrifying-vision-of-south-africas-future?fbclid=IwAR1l79nkfhXFjwe7FMFXgnFKTH2vwtbym2dCZoqm-3hGG39rzqSGvkwJ8L4">anger</a> in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Spurred by recent <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/south-africa-most-looted-shops-still-shut/a-58731196">unprecedented riots</a>, the state reinstated the “social relief of distress” grant, after it was terminated at the end of April, until March 2022. Furthermore, it expanded the R350 (US$23) monthly payment to caregivers, who were previously excluded.</p>
<p><a href="https://c19peoplescoalition.org.za/about-us/">The C-19 coalition</a>, made up of community groups, trade unions, NGOs and social movements, has <a href="https://c19peoplescoalition.org.za/c19pc-statement-on-recent-civil-unrest-sa-deserves-more/">called</a> on government to transform the grant into a monthly basic income guarantee of at least R1268 (US$85). This is equivalent to the <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/1_Stock/Events_Institutional/2020/womens_charter_2020/docs/05-03-2021/StatsSa_presentation.pdf">upper-bound poverty line</a>. There are calls for a guarantee rather than a grant and to reframe the transfer as a right based on citizenship, rather than a government gift to the deserving few.</p>
<p>President Cyril Ramaphosa recently <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2021-07-18-ramaphosa-says-basic-income-grant-will-show-government-cares/">affirmed</a> government’s commitment to considering a basic income grant, stating that: </p>
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<p>This will validate our people and show them that we are giving serious consideration to their lives.</p>
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<p>But, not all within the government agree. </p>
<p>New finance minister Enoch Godongwana has <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/511790/south-africas-new-finance-minister-speaks-out-on-a-basic-income-grant/">warned</a> against fostering dependency among youth in particular. He has emphasized the importance of investing in skills instead. </p>
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<p>What we need to do is invest in skilling these kids, and obviously, they will have some cash which will be a stipend or per diem. And in addition let’s get them better development of skills.</p>
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<p>However, skills training alone cannot address the problem of structural unemployment. South Africa’s unemployment crisis reflects decades of sluggish growth, declining investment in productive sectors, growing capital intensity in key industries and the <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/media/wits-university/faculties-and-schools/commerce-law-and-management/research-entities/scis/documents/9%20Naidoo%20emerging%20trends%20in%20South%20Africa.docx.pdf">casualisation of standard employment relations</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-key-reasons-why-basic-income-support-for-poor-south-africans-makes-sense-165328">Five key reasons why basic income support for poor South Africans makes sense</a>
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<p>Ultimately, the basic income versus jobs debate is a false dilemma. After all, redistribution and production are two sides of the same coin. A publicly funded basic income would not only provide much needed relief amid high levels of poverty and inequality, but has the potential to increase demand for consumer goods and services, thereby boosting economic activity and increasing investment. This <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/27/what-billionaires-say-about-universal-basic-income-in-2017.html">dynamic of basic income</a> is well accepted by American billionaire backers.</p>
<p>However, basic income is not a magic bullet of itself. It must be embedded within a broader strategy of economic transformation, buttressed by progressive social forces.</p>
<h2>Structural unemployment</h2>
<p>The finance minister’s concern with giving something for something has been a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/dech.12665">recurring theme</a> in debates on welfare globally. Historically, decision-makers have been drawn to schemes which oblige the poor to work because they’re considered effective in imposing order, funnelling the dispossessed into ultra-low-wage labour and dissuading further claims on the state.</p>
<p>Interestingly, <a href="https://www.swop.org.za/post/incorporating-bomahlalela-reconceptualising-unemployment-and-labour-in-the-age-of-uncertainty">study</a> after <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/africa/article/abs/labour-laziness-and-distribution-work-imaginaries-among-the-south-african-unemployed/B9DBDA172DB42F855DD499AF6D186646">study</a> shows that South Africa’s unemployed – <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20release%20QLFS%20Q1%202021.pdf">43.2%</a> of the working age population, according to the expanded definition – would also prefer not to depend on the state and aspire to a proper job. The problem is that proper jobs, with standard employment protections, are increasingly scarce.</p>
<p>Indeed, between 1995 and 2021, youth unemployment rose from 28% to <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=14415">63%</a>. But even those lucky enough to find a job, cannot necessarily meet their basic needs. Prior to the introduction of the national minimum wage in 2018, <a href="http://nationalminimumwage.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NMW-RI-Research-Summary-Web-Final.pdf">54%</a> of full time workers earned below the line of working poverty.</p>
<p>While some try to cobble together a livelihood from informal activities, these are largely <a href="https://theconversation.com/stereotypes-about-young-jobless-south-africans-are-wrong-what-theyre-really-up-to-162633">survivalist</a> and insufficient to make ends meet. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africa-needs-to-ensure-income-security-beyond-the-pandemic-137551">Why South Africa needs to ensure income security beyond the pandemic</a>
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<p>In the last quarter, discouraged job seekers <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20release%20QLFS%20Q1%202021.pdf">increased by 6.9%</a>. One reason is the exorbitant cost of looking for work, including: accessing information, submitting applications, travel costs and skills training. These place <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-south-african-case-study-how-to-support-young-job-hunters-110511">an additional burden</a> on households already struggling to survive. A basic income guarantee could partially address this problem. </p>
<h2>The case for a basic income grant</h2>
<p>South Africa has one of the most <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/media/wits-university/faculties-and-schools/commerce-law-and-management/research-entities/scis/documents/5%20Matthews%20traversing%20the%20cracks%20South%20Africa.pdf">expansive</a> social grants systems in Africa. It reaches <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2021/review/Chapter%205.pdf#page=9">more than 18.5 million people</a> or almost third of its population.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/media/wits-university/faculties-and-schools/commerce-law-and-management/research-entities/scis/documents/5%20Matthews%20traversing%20the%20cracks%20South%20Africa.pdf">grants</a> have significantly reduced the incidence and severity of poverty, they exclude the unemployed, placing a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/eating-from-one-pot/733BDE2B0C233288A6408E5C7D4D0833">burden</a> on existing recipients, and effectively eroding the value of the transfer.</p>
<p>Proponents of a basic income guarantee argue that it would <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/scis/publications/opinion/universal-basic-income/">fill the cracks</a> in South Africa’s social security system. Furthermore, it could support activities outside of the labour market such as care work, and establish a reservation wage below which workers could refuse to work, <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/scis/publications/opinion/universal-basic-income/">strengthening their bargaining power</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, proponents argue that because the basic income guarantee would apply to all, it could foster social cohesion while avoiding the costly targeting processes inherent in means-tested-schemes. Meanwhile, its unconditional nature would prevent the state from coercing recipients into ultra-low wage work, as has been the case with South Africa’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/about-government/government-programmes/expanded-public-works-programme">public works programme</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, like the <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/national-minimum-wage-increased-r2169-hour">national minimum wage</a>, the impact of a basic income guarantee would hinge on the value of the benefit and how it is structured.</p>
<h2>Rethinking redistribution, reclaiming production</h2>
<p>Recent projections by the <a href="https://www.iej.org.za/financing-options-for-a-universal-basic-income-guarantee-in-south-africa/">Institute for Economic Justice</a>, a progressive policy think tank, suggest that a monthly basic income guarantee of R840 (US$58) - which corresponds to the lower bound poverty line - could be easily funded through tax revenue, using a phased approach.</p>
<p>With increased revenue from VAT recoupment due to increased consumption, and the introduction of a wealth tax, a basic income grant would be affordable for the entire adult population.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, critics are right to point out that production matters. On the one hand, production generates the revenue required for redistribution as well as goods and services. On the other, redistributive schemes contribute to capital accumulation through increased demand for goods and services, thereby shaping the organisation of production.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-pandemic-has-triggered-a-rise-in-hunger-in-south-africa-164581">COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a rise in hunger in South Africa</a>
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<p>Ultimately, what is produced, how it is produced and for whom are critical questions. One of the pitfalls of the global debate on basic income is that it has tended to ignore struggles around the organisation of production at precisely the moment when it is most urgent to contest the casualisation of labour.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/scis/publications/opinion/universal-basic-income/">history has shown</a>, if redistributive reforms such as basic income are not paired with labour, social and consumer protections, their impact can be easily undermined.</p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>Ultimately, the basic income versus jobs debate represents a false dilemma. Redistributive reforms have the potential to increase demand for goods and services and wealth accumulation. This, in turn, can drive investment and generate jobs, while creating the basis for further redistribution.</p>
<p>But, progressive proposals for basic income must conceive of it as part of, rather than a replacement for, a broader set of reforms aimed at decommodifying life under capitalism and improving the conditions of work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Castel-Branco is the Research Manager for the Future of Work(ers) project at the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies. She has received funding from the International Centre for Development and Decent Work, and the Open Society Foundation.</span></em></p>Basic income must be embedded within a broader strategy of economic reform, aimed at increasing the social wage and improving working conditions.Ruth Castel-Branco, Research Manager, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1596582021-06-16T12:38:55Z2021-06-16T12:38:55ZBiden’s Supreme Court commission probably won’t sway public opinion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405976/original/file-20210611-25-1fpbpfi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C13%2C4473%2C3139&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Amid strong political pressure to pack the Supreme Court, President Biden formed a commission to study ways to reform the court.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-speaks-on-covid-19-response-and-news-photo/1233235439?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In late 2020, President Donald <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court.html">Trump nominated conservative jurist Amy Coney Barrett</a> to the U.S. Supreme Court. She was <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/927640619/senate-confirms-amy-coney-barrett-to-the-supreme-court">quickly confirmed</a> to fill the seat previously held by the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg. </p>
<p>Many liberals feared the court was becoming too conservative and called on then-candidate Joe Biden to “pack the court” by adding new seats and filling them with liberal justices. </p>
<p>After dodging the issue for weeks, Biden <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-democratic-presidential-candidate-kamala-harris-60-mintues-interview-norah-odonnell-2020-10-25/">finally committed</a> to creating “a bipartisan commission of scholars” to compile “recommendations as to how to reform the court system.”</p>
<p>In early April, President Biden created a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/04/09/executive-order-on-the-establishment-of-the-presidential-commission-on-the-supreme-court-of-the-united-states/">presidential commission</a> of 36 legal experts to produce a report on Supreme Court reform. </p>
<p>While the commission’s report may or may not recommend changing the number of seats on the court or other proposals Biden might consider, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12393">our research</a> suggests that presidential commissions have little influence on public attitudes toward presidents’ policies.</p>
<h2>Commissions as crediblity-building devices</h2>
<p>Presidents have assembled commissions of outside experts to investigate a wide range of policy problems, such as <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/pcsss/pcsss.html#:%7E:text=The%202001%20President's%20Commission%20to,building%20wealth%20for%20younger%20Americans.%22">the financial stability of Social Security</a>, <a href="https://cybercemetery.unt.edu/archive/oilspill/20121210172821/http://www.oilspillcommission.gov/">oil spills</a> and <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/275NCJRS.pdf">violent crime</a>.</p>
<p>These commissions <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/wellness/1988/06/07/the-uneven-history-of-presidential-commissions/a376754a-8be2-428a-b36d-e4883897b049/">serve many purposes for presidents</a>. For instance, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/US/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/international-relations-and-international-organisations/terrorism-and-national-security-reform-how-commissions-can-drive-change-during-crises">they can investigate and gather facts. Or they can allow presidents to avoid taking action</a> on certain issues while simultaneously giving the appearance they are addressing them.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">On March 2, 2015, President Obama delivered remarks after receiving a report of recommendations from the Task Force on 21st Century Policing.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Another common function of commissions is to bolster the credibility of the actions presidents take on issues they study. By relying on experts they appoint to commissions, presidents hope to convince the public that their actions are based on evidence reviewed by specialists rather than political calculations.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12393">Our study</a> tested whether presidential commissions enhance public support for presidents’ policies using four survey experiments conducted on Amazon Mechanical Turk. We focus here on one experiment concerning President Barack Obama’s <a href="https://cops.usdoj.gov/RIC/Publications/cops-p341-pub.pdf">Task Force on 21st Century Policing</a>, a commission created to provide recommendations to “promote effective crime reduction while building public trust.” </p>
<p>Obama endorsed the commission’s final policy recommendations, one of which was to advocate for independent investigations of cases in which police kill civilians, or what are known as deadly use-of-force incidents. </p>
<p>We randomly assigned respondents to one of four groups and asked them to read a short summary about a new policy encouraging local police departments to use independent investigators in cases in which civilians are killed by police.</p>
<p>In the first group, we told respondents that “the federal government” issued this policy. In the second group, we instead ascribed this policy to President Obama. In the third group, we informed respondents that President Obama announced the policy on the recommendation of the Task Force on 21st Century Policing. Finally, in the fourth group, we told respondents that President Obama’s policy emerged from this task force and described the expertise of the commission’s co-chairs. </p>
<p>After reading their assigned summary, we asked respondents about their approval of President Obama’s handling of police-community relations. Additionally, we asked whether they thought that police departments or independent investigators could fairly investigate deadly use-of-force cases.</p>
<h2>Comparable credibility</h2>
<p>We found that respondents who read that President Obama relied on a commission’s recommendation were no more supportive of his handling than those told that he adopted the policy on his own. These results suggest that commissions do not help presidents generate public support for their policies beyond the support they enjoy for taking action themselves.</p>
<p>We found similar results when examining respondents’ confidence in the ability of police departments or independent investigators to conduct fair reviews of use-of-force cases. Our results indicate little difference in respondents’ perceptions of the policy’s efficacy whether it emanated from a commission or through direct presidential action. </p>
<p>Thus, commissions do not enhance the credibility of presidents’ policies in the eyes of the public. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Biden doesn’t have only a Supreme Court commission; he’s also got a task force to advise him on how to address bottlenecks in the semiconductor, construction, transportation and agriculture sectors.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Biden’s commission</h2>
<p>The results from all four experiments point to a common conclusion: Presidents’ policies experience similar levels of support regardless of whether they develop and implement them on their own or with the help of a commission. </p>
<p>Commissions may help presidents satisfy public demand for action in a way that allows president to “do something” without doing it themselves – i.e., they can symbolically satisfy public demand without expending much effort themselves. But they do not provide presidents’ policies with enhanced support or credibility. </p>
<p>Our study has several limitations. Because our experiments focused on President Obama, we cannot know how our findings generalize to presidents with different characteristics, such as party affiliation or policy expertise. </p>
<p>Additionally, our experiments did not consider the issue of Supreme Court reform, which may be a more prominent issue than those we considered. </p>
<p>However, since polarization makes persuasion <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000500">more difficult</a>, the potential for Biden’s court reform commission to influence public opinion is likely low. While commissions on more prominent issues than those we studied could affect public opinion, our political environment and the issue of court reform is so polarized that we are unlikely to see an effect.</p>
<p>Speaking in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, in October 2020, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-vice-president-joe-biden-gettysburg-pennsylvania">then-candidate Joe Biden</a> pledged to “marshal the ingenuity and good will of this nation to turn division into unity and bring us together.”</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>By creating a bipartisan panel of experts, Biden likely hopes to temper the politicization surrounding the debate and confer credibility on reforms he might pursue. </p>
<p>However, once the time to push policy change arrives, Biden might find that public support for his reforms would have been the same had he not convened it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Presidents form commissions to study controversial problems and recommend solutions. President Biden created one while under pressure to pack the Supreme Court. Will a commission help him politically?David Ryan Miller, Postdoctoral Research Scholar, Vanderbilt UniversityAndrew Reeves, Associate Professor of Political Science, Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1591442021-05-27T16:41:36Z2021-05-27T16:41:36ZUnemployment and conflict: how COVID-19 has affected women in Morocco<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401638/original/file-20210519-19-1a2tk0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Morocco, most women's lives, choices and mobility are controlled by men.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Across the world, COVID-19 has completely disrupted lives. This includes the activities and social affairs within households. </p>
<p>I wanted to explore how exactly it had affected gender roles, and the relationship between women and men, within households in Morocco. Morocco is basically a patriarchal society – laws <a href="https://www.kas.de/documents/276068/8307005/KAS+Maroc+Policy+Paper+Nov+2020+-Women%E2%80%99s+Rights+in+Post-2011+Morocco+The+Divergences+Between+Institutions+and+Values.pdf/9aacf4ba-a1ea-3e66-b70b-787498b50d12?version=1.0&t=1607504069145">codifying</a> gender relations are based fundamentally on the supremacy of the male head of the family, considered the main provider and decision maker. Women’s lives, choices and mobility are controlled by the male members of their families. </p>
<p>Despite progress made at closing the gender gap in <a href="http://riverapublications.com/article/moroccos-experience-with-gender-gap-reduction-in-education">education</a>, women <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/5/4/75/htm">are yet</a> to reach decision-making positions, in the private and the public sphere.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://riverapublications.com/article/women-and-gender-relations-during-the-pandemic-in-morocco">new study</a> I wanted to explore how COVID-19 affected women and gender inequities. </p>
<p>I found that the pandemic has burdened women with more housework and duties at home, and that violence against them has risen. This is particularly the case among working-class women and housemaids, who are more vulnerable. </p>
<p>Reforms in education, legislation and law enforcement are key to changing this. </p>
<h2>Increased gender inequalities</h2>
<p>For this study, I carried out an extensive literature review, which included an examination of official documents and previous research on women and gender. I also undertook some fieldwork between April and December 2020 in the region of Fès. This is the third largest province in the country, with a strong informal economy led by women. I carried out interviews with 40 people (25 women and 15 men) to understand the obstacles they had encountered during the pandemic. </p>
<p>To mitigate the spread of the new coronavirus, for a few months in 2020 and again in 2021, the government implemented various lockdown measures including the closure of airports, schools, cafes and mosques. It also enforced stay-at-home orders and set up curfews. </p>
<p>As a result of these measures, I found, there were job losses. This <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/sites/default/files/MEL_COVID-19%20in%20Morocco_Labor%20market%20impacts%20and%20policy%20responses_0.pdf">was higher</a> for women (17.5%) than for men (15.1%). Most <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/public/2021/05/341321/hcp-increase-of-2-in-unemployment-rate-at-start-of-2021">affected</a> were women working in the service industry – such as the tourism industry, cafés and restaurants, which all have <a href="https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/%7Emdo738/research/COVID19_Gender_March_2020.pdf">a high female employment rate</a>. Also affected was the <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus/2020/07/14/Coronavirus-Crisis-hit-Moroccans-join-informal-economy-as-job-market-shrinks">informal economy</a>, which includes women who were self-employed, small-scale producers and distributors of goods and services, and domestic workers. </p>
<p>To control the pandemic and support those who had lost their incomes, the government <a href="https://www.kas.de/documents/282499/282548/Covid19+Response+in+the+Maghreb+-+Eya+Jrad.pdf/122aaa7e-0608-ad15-abc7-4f09cfff689e?version=1.0&t=1600704327172">established</a> the Coronavirus Management and Response Fund. The fund was valued at over US$3 billion. But <a href="https://careevaluations.org/wp-content/uploads/Rapid-gender-analysis-CARE-Morocco.pdf">fewer women</a> than men have benefited from the government’s aid, as it was mainly directed to male heads of households. It’s typically the male head of the family who registers for support. </p>
<p>Increased domestic tasks as a result of school closures and lockdown measures have <a href="https://www.wilpf.org.uk/covid-impact-series-morocco/#:%7E:text=Research%20revealed%20that%20Moroccan%20women,%2C%20while%20men%20only%205%25.&text=Similar%20percentages%20have%20also%20been,violence%20against%20women%20at%2054%25.">disproportionately affected</a> women, who already carry out the majority of unpaid domestic work. Moroccan women <a href="https://www.wilpf.org.uk/covid-impact-series-morocco/#:%7E:text=Research%20revealed%20that%20Moroccan%20women,%2C%20while%20men%20only%205%25.&text=Similar%20percentages%20have%20also%20been,violence%20against%20women%20at%2054%25.">devote</a> 38% of their free time to domestic work, compared to just 5% for their male counterparts. In this sense, the pandemic has further relegated women to the domestic sphere and increased violence against them.</p>
<p>In relation to gender-based violence, I found several reports showing that it worsened during the pandemic. A <a href="https://www.tanmia.ma/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Coronaviolence-final-report-English.pdf">survey</a> by Mobilising for Rights Associates, an NGO working to promote women’s human rights, revealed a rise in violence against women and girls during the pandemic. Collaborating with 16 local women’s NGOs, between April and May 2020, the survey (of 159 women) found that one in four women suffered from physical violence. The study also flagged psychological violence as another predominant form of violence and that husbands were the main perpetrators. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.hcp.ma/Communique-du-Haut-Commissariat-au-Plan-a-l-occasion-de-la-campagne-nationale-et-internationale-de-mobilisation-pour-l_a2411.html">recent report</a> by the Higher Planning Commission in Morocco – an independent government statistical institution – 25% of Moroccans experienced conflict gender relations with the people with whom they have been confined. </p>
<p>Women’s health has been affected in other ways. The lockdown reduced women’s access to healthcare due to limitations on mobility imposed by the confinement measures. For instance, 30% of women could <a href="https://www.hcp.ma/Communique-de-presse-Publication-du-rapport-d-analyse-genre-de-l-impact-de-la-pandemie-COVID-19-sur-la-situation_a2656.html">no longer visit</a> reproductive health facilities. </p>
<p>The Higher Planning Commission also found that women were more at risk of contracting the virus because a large number of them do frontline care and service work. In Morocco, women <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/public/2020/07/309720/world-population-day-hcp-reveals-women-are-more-exposed-to-covid-19">represent</a> 58% of the medical workforce and 67% of paramedical personnel, such as nurses and technicians. </p>
<h2>Much-needed reform</h2>
<p>Policymakers must take these insights into account when making policies for economic recovery. They also show us that reform is needed <a href="https://www.fes.de/e/womens-care-burden-has-to-be-recognised">to cater for</a> women’s rights, justice and inclusion. </p>
<p>There needs to be recognition and value of women’s care work and the redistribution of this load within families. This should be done through state policies. For instance social policies should be redesigned <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1440783320942413">so that they guarantee</a> equality and a fair division of domestic labour and care.</p>
<p>In Tunisia, for example, the patriarchal Islamic family code has had successive reforms. The <a href="https://vc.bridgew.edu/jiws/vol18/iss4/3/">most recent one</a> pushes men to do their share of the housework and has fostered women’s access to the labour market. This <a href="https://thearabweekly.com/tunisia-marks-long-struggle-womens-rights">shows</a> that a gender equality-based model of family law can be successfully integrated into the Muslim culture.</p>
<p>Women working in the informal sector must also be provided with suitable safety nets, such as healthcare and social security. The government recently <a href="https://northafricapost.com/49025-morocco-project-to-generalize-social-protection-launched-under-kings-chairmanship.html">launched</a> a project which aims to generalise social protection. This is a good move, but the government must ensure that women benefit from it. </p>
<p>Importantly, recovery must lead to a more equal world that is more resilient to future crises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Moha Ennaji does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Morocco, the COVID-19 pandemic has burdened women with more housework and duties at home, and violence against them has risen.Moha Ennaji, Professor, Université Sidi Mohammed Ben AbdellahLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1512892020-12-14T19:06:43Z2020-12-14T19:06:43ZOur research shows more Australians receive unemployment payments than you think<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374143/original/file-20201210-24-x7dx38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C73%2C5095%2C3555&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kelly Barnes/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australians receiving unemployment payments are often <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/them-and-us-the-enduring-power-of-welfare-myths/">negatively portrayed</a> as a relatively small group of people with personal or behavioural problems that stop them from getting a job. </p>
<p>The unparalleled growth in unemployment during COVID-19 has opened up significant space to challenge long-held perceptions of “them and us” when it comes to welfare. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-really-behaving-badly-confronting-australias-cashless-welfare-card-151847">Who's really behaving badly? Confronting Australia’s cashless welfare card</a>
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<p>Nevertheless, extra support to Australia’s unemployed has already been <a href="https://theconversation.com/unemployment-support-will-be-slashed-by-300-this-week-this-wont-help-people-find-work-146289">substantially wound back</a> — with plans to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/some-330-000-more-australians-will-fall-into-poverty-when-coronavirus-supplement-is-cut-modelling-warns">do so again</a> by the end of the year. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://library.bsl.org.au/jspui/bitstream/1/12353/1/Bowman_et_al_Everyone_counts_Newstart_Allowance_Dec2020.pdf">new study</a>, by a team at the Brotherhood of St Laurence, RMIT University and the Australian National University, highlights significant misunderstandings about the scale and scope of Australians who received Newstart — the unemployment payment <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/JobSeekerPayment">replaced by JobsSeeker Payment</a> earlier this year.</p>
<p>Bottom line? It’s much more common to get the payment than you think. </p>
<h2>‘Everyone counts’: our research</h2>
<p>This <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/research/publications/everyone-counts/">study</a> makes use of <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/about-our-data/our-data-collections/department-of-social-services-data-over-multiple-i">a Department of Social Services
database</a> that records every interaction with Centrelink. This is the first time results from this database have been published by independent researchers.</p>
<p>It has given us an important opportunity to track how people have used unemployment payments — specifically Newstart Allowance — from 2001 to 2016 (the years available for study). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-jobseeker-in-our-post-covid-economy-australia-needs-a-liveable-income-guarantee-instead-141535">Forget JobSeeker. In our post-COVID economy, Australia needs a 'liveable income guarantee' instead</a>
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<p>We took a simple but new approach: to count every individual who ever received Newstart between those years.</p>
<p>Most statistics on the number of people receiving payments are reported as the “stock”, which is the number of recipients on a specific date in that year. With these new data, we are able to measure the “flow”, which is the number of people who ever received a payment during the course of each year, as well as over the whole period since 2001.</p>
<p>Our analysis is part of broader research that aims to gain a clearer understanding of the dimensions of “income volatility” (sudden changes in income) in Australia.</p>
<h2>How many people receive payments?</h2>
<p>We found receiving unemployment payments was much more common than previously thought during the study period.</p>
<p>For example, between 2013 and 2016, the number of people receiving Newstart at the end of the financial year ranged between 660,000 and 750,000. But over the course of each of those years, well over 1.1 million separate individuals received an unemployment payment. </p>
<p>This suggests approximately one in 11 people (9%) in the labour
force received Newstart in any of these years.</p>
<p>Overall, when we look at the “flow” figures, more than 4.4 million people received Newstart between 2001 and 2016 (nearly 2.5 million men and 2 million women). This is nearly one quarter of the qualified working-age population over this period. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374343/original/file-20201211-15-134gorc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>We also found the proportion of women receiving Newstart
increased from 30% in 2001 to 46% in 2016. In part this reflects <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/Publications/Research_reports/JobSeeker_Payment">policy changes</a> that predominantly affected women, such as
restricting access to parenting payments and the increase in the Age Pension age for women.</p>
<h2>Time spent on welfare varies</h2>
<p>There is a widely-held view that many unemployed people rely on the payment for a <a href="https://www.acoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/SurvivingNotLiving.pdf">long time</a>. But our analysis provides a mixed picture on this point.</p>
<p>Nearly half of the Newstart population of 4.4 million (47%) received the payment for less than a year. Over two-thirds (68%) received it for less than two years. </p>
<p>So this would appear to contradict the idea most people rely on it long-term. However, it remains important to recognise that a significant minority still do.</p>
<p>At the other extreme, around 15% were on the payment for a total of five or more years. About 3.6% had been on it for ten or more years.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1095&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1095&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374352/original/file-20201211-23-1dav7if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1095&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Between the two extremes — people who had only one short period on Newstart and people who spent most of these years on it — there are a multitude of differing patterns. This reflects both the ups and downs of the Australian labour market and the volatile circumstances experienced by many working-age Australians.</p>
<h2>Dramatic rise in payment suspensions</h2>
<p>Fluctuating income is a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0003122418823184">key cause</a> of household financial and emotional stress. It can affect well-being as much as (if not more than) low wages.</p>
<p>For people receiving an income support payment,
the disruption caused by uncertain income is even worse — even a day’s delay in payment can have major consequences when it comes to paying bills or rent. </p>
<p>People on Newstart (now JobSeeker) can have their payments suspended either for not <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/jobseeker-payment/how-report-and-manage-your-payment">reporting their income</a> correctly or not meeting <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/topics/mutual-obligation-requirements/29751">job-seeking requirements</a>. Successive governments have increasingly sought to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0095399719839362">enforce</a> this — which has led to more uncertainty around the payment.</p>
<p>Our study found rates of suspension increased dramatically over the study period, from 2% in 2001 to 11% to 2016. Of those who were suspended, the likelihood of experiencing multiple suspensions increased from 2.3% to 14%. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374348/original/file-20201211-16-st0xgf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Women were more likely to have been suspended on multiple
occasions than men. In 2016, 12.7% of the 556,000 women who received Newstart were suspended, compared to 9.8% of the 653,000 men.</p>
<h2>Social security is not a ‘marginal’ issue</h2>
<p>The biggest lesson of our study is that the idea social security payments are confined to a group of unfortunate individuals and families living at the margins of society is incorrect. </p>
<p>Our findings show how short-term reliance on unemployment benefits is relatively common. Social security, like healthcare and education, should be viewed as a core part of mainstream Australian life. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-coronavirus-supplement-stops-jobseeker-needs-to-increase-by-185-a-week-138417">When the Coronavirus Supplement stops, JobSeeker needs to increase by $185 a week</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our insights also demonstrate that while longer-term reliance on Newstart is an important policy issue, short-term reliance is underestimated. They also shed new light on the increasing share of recipients — especially women — who are facing irregular payments due to suspensions.</p>
<p>Along with ongoing concerns about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-coronavirus-supplement-stops-jobseeker-needs-to-increase-by-185-a-week-138417">adequacy</a> of income support payments - highlighted once again by a recent <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2020-04/apo-nid303530.pdf">Senate inquiry</a>, as well as by business groups like the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/retail-groups-warn-cutting-back-jobseeker-could-hit-employment-20200810-p55ka5.html">Australian Retailers Association</a> — this raises questions about the extent to which the Australian social security system is effectively fulfilling its <a href="https://www.data.gov.au/organisations/org-dga-f7696dc3-e407-4c5f-bfaa-1f6d9ef37f17">stated mission</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>to improve the lifetime well-being of individuals and families.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151289/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Whiteford has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Social Services. He is a Policy Advisor to the Australian Council of Social Service and a Fellow of the Centre for Policy Development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashton de Silva has in recent times received funding from the Australian Housing Urban Research Institute (related to a different project). Further, he has received grants from several firms in the private sector albeit unrelated to this particular project as well as organisations such as the CPA and Regional Australia Institute. In addition, he has been engaged by government bodies including the Australian Tax Office and the Australian Securities Investment Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dina Bowman is a Principal Research Fellow in the Brotherhood of St Laurence's Research and Policy Centre. Her current research is supported by philanthropic funding to the Brotherhood of St Laurence - including donations from ANZ.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Banks is a casual researcher at RMIT University in the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing. He is an active NTEU Delegate and supports campaigns by the Australian Unemployed Workers Union. He has received funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and the Australian Securities Investment Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zsuzsanna Csereklyei has in the past received funding from the Australian Housing Urban Research Institute, and the Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (related to different projects). </span></em></p>A new study highlights significant misunderstandings about the scale and scope of Australians who receive unemployment payments.Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityAshton De Silva, Associate Professor of Economics, RMIT UniversityDina Bowman, Principal Research Fellow, Research & Policy Centre, Brotherhood of St Laurence, and Honorary Principal Fellow, The University of MelbourneMarcus Banks, Social policy and consumer finance researcher, School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT UniversityZsuzsanna Csereklyei, Lecturer in Economics, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1502362020-11-17T20:35:22Z2020-11-17T20:35:22ZTo move on from Trump, America must rebuild its capacity to care for its people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369859/original/file-20201117-23-b4v69j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=108%2C58%2C2594%2C1877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this Oct. 3, 2017, iconic photo, President Donald Trump tosses paper towels into a crowd in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico, after Hurricane Maria devastated the region. The recent U.S. election brings with it hope for more caring practices from elected officials.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump lost. Period.</p>
<p>Yet he still won strong majorities in the South and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt127x1h">Mountain West</a> while dominating once more with white evangelicals. As in 2016, he cleaned up in places like southwestern Pennsylvania, where factory jobs are <a href="https://dsc.duq.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1019&context=first-class">long gone</a>, and in upscale zip codes like <a href="https://www.jacksonville.com/news/metro/2016-09-16/story/us-census-bureau-st-johns-county-richest-florida">St. Johns County</a> in Florida, where you can play 18 holes and then sip martinis on the beach.</p>
<p>But the most striking part of Trump’s showing was his strength in places where the pandemic is raging. According to an analysis by National Public Radio, nearly <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/06/930897912/many-places-hard-hit-by-covid-19-leaned-more-toward-trump-in-2020-than-2016">seven in 10 counties</a> with high COVID-19 death rates backed Trump more strongly this year than they did in 2016.</p>
<p>Those votes speaks volumes about what Americans have come to expect — or not to expect — from their government.</p>
<h2>‘Salus Populi’</h2>
<p>The government’s responsibility for public safety and well-being — <a href="https://yalereview.yale.edu/law-salus-populi"><em>Salus Populi</em></a>, in its original Latin — is among the most venerable ideas of the western political tradition. America is no exception. </p>
<p>Most of the state-level constitutions written during the American Revolution described the “<a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/nj15.asp">happiness and safety</a>” of the people, no less than their freedom, as the governments’ primary concern. The Federal Constitution of 1787 also named “<a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/preamble">general welfare</a>” as one of its main goals. And why not? The very word, republic, means the “public thing.”</p>
<p>Throughout the 19th century, courts and legislatures cited <em>Salus Populi</em> as the supreme law of the land, something that overruled the private interests of the greedy or careless. As a Massachusetts judge <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/828481%22%22">summarized</a> while defending regulations on food markets in the 1840s, the public had “a right to control [those markets], as best to promote the welfare of all citizens.”</p>
<p>These weren’t just words. City ordinances actually prevented merchants from selling spoiled meat. Town governments repeatedly enforced quarantines. Judges routinely ordered the destruction of buildings that contained flammable materials.</p>
<p>To be sure, 19th-century America also had a libertarian streak. Amid the social upheavals of industrialization and urbanization, various anti-government and hyper-individualistic ideas grew into predatory ideologies such as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv5138b0">social Darwinism</a>. </p>
<p>By the early 20th century, however, the federal government had assumed responsibility for basic hygiene in the nation’s food and water supplies. During <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/new-deal">the New Deal</a> in the 1930s, the government devised Social Security for retirees and invested in everything from highways and bridges to hospitals.</p>
<p>Governments of all levels fought the polio outbreaks of the early post-war years, and <a href="https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/grand-expectations-9780195117974?cc=&lang=en&">both public and private donors</a> enabled Jonas Salk’s wondrous polio vaccine in 1955.</p>
<h2>The private revolution</h2>
<p>Everything changed in the U.S. with the election of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/ronald-reagan/">Ronald Reagan</a> as president in 1980.</p>
<p>“The <a href="https://www.reaganfoundation.org/ronald-reagan/reagan-quotes-speeches/news-conference-1/">nine most terrifying words</a> in the English language,” the affable Reagan chortled, “are: I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.” In his America, the only role for government was to punish evildoers and promote dog-eat-dog capitalism in the name of “freedom.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/how-reagan-got-his-gipper-nickname-20040608-gdj2ut.html">The Gipper</a>, as Reagan was nicknamed (after a movie role), delivered these <a href="https://naomiklein.org/the-shock-doctrine/">right-wing economic dogmas</a> with a B-actor’s smile, initiating a 40-year assault on <em>Salus Populi</em>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369865/original/file-20201117-15-i7wij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. politics of care changed under Ronald Reagan shown here on Nov. 3, 1980, with former president Gerald Ford and his running mate, George H.W. Bush in Peoria, Ill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This has worked out very well for the wealthy. High net-worth individuals saw their income taxes plummet under Reagan and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/02/the-legacy-of-the-bush-tax-cuts-in-four-charts/">again under George W. Bush</a>. They reinvested the windfall in capital <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1049792?seq=1">markets liberalized by Bill Clinton</a>. Especially since the <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/">Great Recession of 2008</a>, the super wealthy have pulled away from everyone else, with the richest five per cent of U.S. families increasing their net worth by an astonishing 88 per cent.</p>
<p>No wonder people making over $100,000 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/exit-polls-changes-2016-2020/">swung strongly</a> two weeks ago to Trump, a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/09/28/yes-donald-trump-is-still-a-billionaire-that-makes-his-750-tax-payment-even-more-scandalous/?sh=59e5f84f2885">shady billionaire</a> who nonetheless delivered another tax cut in 2017. The puzzle is why so many working people seem to support an economic project that often harms working people.</p>
<p>Perhaps the question presupposes a level of choice that most people don’t have. In a world of <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/23/385843576/50-years-of-shrinking-union-membership-in-one-map">closing factories and shrinking unions</a>, employees are in no position to demand better job security. Flooded by well-crafted slogans about the evils of government, voters have little hope for competent leaders, to say nothing of caring ones.</p>
<p>Indeed, the most obvious choice within the privatized hellscape of contemporary America is to hang on to what you’ve got, the public be damned.</p>
<h2>Fellow citizens</h2>
<p>If no one will help you in times of need, why vote for someone who pretends otherwise? If everyone is out for himself, why not admire a snake-oil tycoon like Donald Trump? In Trump’s America, the deaths of so many fellow citizens simply “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/it-what-it-trump-interview-covid-19-death-toll-u-n1235734">is what it is</a>.”</p>
<p>The only way to fight these dismal convictions is to create tangible evidence to the contrary. Building more hospitals would be a good place to start. More than <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/04/hospital-closing-shortage-coronavirus">150 of these have closed</a> in rural areas of the U.S. since 2015.</p>
<p>Strengthening Social Security and the Affordable Care Act should also be priorities. Mandating better nutritional content for school cafeterias and enforcing fair labour practices would also work.</p>
<p>Act first, talk later. Then perhaps Americans like me can once again see each other as part of a civil and coherent society, as proud members of a decent and well-run republic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150236/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.M. Opal receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>The United States was built on the idea of public safety and well-being. Those values have been slowly eroded since the ‘80s. Can the U.S. find its way back to a more caring civil society?Jason Opal, Associate Professor of History and Chair, History and Classical Studies, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490702020-10-29T19:07:37Z2020-10-29T19:07:37ZVital Signs: we’ll never cut unemployment to 0%, but less than 4% should be our goal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366322/original/file-20201029-23-p0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C89%2C2434%2C1643&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most concerning things that happens in any recession is the spike in unemployment. The COVID-19-induced recession in Australia and around the world is no exception – other than perhaps the magnitudes involved.</p>
<p>Being out of work is distressing, even in advanced economies with a social safety net (like Australia). Welfare payments rarely, if ever, replace the full loss of income from employment.</p>
<p>In many countries, such as the US, unemployment benefits expire after a certain period of time. This puts the unemployed at risk of being destitute. In Australia (and other countries) receiving unemployment benefits requires proving you are actively looking for work. These obligations <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/jobseeker-payment/what-your-commitments-are/mutual-obligation-requirements#whatrequirements">can be quite onerous</a>, even if well-intentioned.</p>
<p>Worse still, being unemployed can tilt the scales against an employer offering you a job. </p>
<p>As MIT and Harvard economists Robert Gibbons and Lawrence Katz noted in a <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w2968/w2968.pdf">landmark 1991 paper</a>, if employers have some discretion over whom to lay off – as is often the case – the labour market will rationally infer that laid-off workers are less desirable employees.</p>
<p>High unemployment also leads to what economists call “labour-market scarring”. This means all those starting work in a bad labour market can suffer long-term economic effects. Either because they don’t get on the job ladder as early as they would have, or because they start off in a job that doesn’t build their skills as well as would have been the case in a strong economy.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Rarely has Australia’s unemployment rate fallen below 5%</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366353/original/file-20201029-13-1gsmn9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seasonally adjusted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release#data-downloads">ABS Labour Force</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>These effects can be significant and are of particular concern during this pandemic, as University of Michigan economist Betsey Stevenson has pointed out <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Stevenson_LO_FINAL.pdf">in an excellent paper</a> on how to mitigate those effects.</p>
<p>Finally, a job also has non-financial benefits. As US presidential candidate Joe Biden has rightly reminded us, a job is about <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1317623931914813444?s=20">more than a paycheque</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s about dignity. It’s about respect. It’s about being able to look your kid in the eye and say everything will be okay.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>All of this points to why policy makers need to make low unemployment one of their core missions. </p>
<p>This involves central banks using monetary policy to reduce unemployment and smooth out the business cycle, and governments using fiscal policy to boost demand when it is flagging.</p>
<h2>Searching for jobs</h2>
<p>That said, there are two important imperfections in labour markets that make some amount of unemployment inevitable. The first is that employers and employees need to be matched together. This involves workers searching for the right job – a process that takes time.</p>
<p>As Peter Diamond, awarded the 2010 Nobel prize in economics for his pioneering work on “search theory”, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23045891.pdf?casa_token=CI39jOlP5NsAAAAA:il_1avlQVf-uXlbAvuaeDsCTIqnczVAt7TNkuO4OSM_98DYVMZbVx1Q-RPr3D0Z0_fXby9rYLMhU2G8scilRpexdqlL7PK07ZwN4mYa3fCJg54DDuDf3kA">has observed</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have all visited several stores to check prices and/or to find the right item or the right size. Similarly, it can take time and effort for a worker to find a suitable job with suitable pay, and for employers to receive and evaluate applications for job openings.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indeed, searching for better matches between employers and employees is an important contributor to labour market efficiency. As Diamond noted, in the US on average 2.6% of employed workers have a different employer a month later. Some people spending some time unemployed is part of a healthy labour market.</p>
<p>A second important friction was <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oep/article-abstract/28/2/185/2360679">pointed out</a> by another Nobel laureate, Joseph Stiglitz (joint winner of the economics prize in 2001 for his work on asymmetric information). </p>
<h2>Efficiency wages</h2>
<p>That is, employers might not want to pay their workers the bare minimum they can get away with. Paying above market – what is called an “efficiency wage” – can induce workers to work harder and more efficiently, because the prospect of losing their job is even more painful.</p>
<p>Another way to think about this was offered by <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2001/akerlof/facts/">George Akerlof</a> (co-winner of the 2001 Nobel economics prize with Stiglitz and A. Michael Spence). </p>
<p>Akerlof brought insights from sociology into economics by viewing the contract between employers and employees as, at least in part, about “gift exchange”. As <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1816334.pdf?casa_token=u_e_BcfaiQYAAAAA:EXTX-VPswRPtdgzgsd2rp3LpZSb1rsbhhr-3zPVWwp9v44I-gjb0WU4c1BW46UfA1SOaL6sNrZMTx5XIPDNeoIiWyXeWpEt3CY32jg74lR5SjuRGpxRwHA">he put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>According to this view, some firms willingly pay workers in excess of the market-clearing wage; in return they expect workers to supply more effort than they would if equivalent jobs could be readily obtained (as is the case if wages are just at market clearing).</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What is ‘full employment’?</h2>
<p>These frictions in the labour market mean full employment, practically speaking, is not zero. It’s almost surely not 1% or 2%, either. The level depends, in part, on how brutal we are willing to make being unemployed. It also depends on the level of the minimum wage.</p>
<p>I, for one, am glad Australia does not cut off unemployment benefits after 16 weeks
(as in the US <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/policy-basics-how-many-weeks-of-unemployment-compensation-are-available">state of Arkansas</a>) and consign the jobless to abject poverty. I’m also glad Australia’s national minimum hourly wage is A$19.84 (about US$14) – double the US federal <a href="https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage">minimum of US$7.25</a>.</p>
<p>Does that make unemployment higher here than in countries that take a harsher approach? It does. But it also makes us a more compassionate and empathetic society that takes human dignity seriously.</p>
<p>So when federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/transcripts/national-press-club-address-qa-national-press-club">said a few weeks ago</a> that once Australia’s unemployment rate is “comfortably below 6%” the task of “budget repair” should begin, I gasped.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-snapback-the-budget-sets-us-up-for-an-unreasonably-slow-recovery-heres-how-148098">No snapback: the budget sets us up for an unreasonably slow recovery. Here's how</a>
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<p>If “comfortably below” means something like 4%, then fine. </p>
<p>Because of the labour market frictions mentioned above, and our approach to unemployment benefits, it’s going to be hard to get unemployment much below that in Australia.</p>
<p>But the idea we should tolerate unemployment of, say, 5.5% in normal times is, frankly, intolerable. Monetary and fiscal authorities should use all the firepower at their disposal to avoid that outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A high unemployment rate isn’t just bad for individuals without a job, and the costs aren’t just financial.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1441782020-08-24T12:21:28Z2020-08-24T12:21:28ZEconomic hardship from COVID-19 will hit minority seniors the most<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352374/original/file-20200811-16-vxxa1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C20%2C6669%2C4416&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The financial ravages caused by COVID-19 will particularly impact Black seniors. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-portrait-of-senior-black-woman-looking-royalty-free-image/1190822973?adppopup=true">Willie B. Thomas via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For Americans 60 and older, COVID-19 is widespread and deadly. Its economic impact could also be devastating. </p>
<p>With a recession fast developing, much of the attention on the downturn focuses on working-age adults, but many older Americans – with less time to make up for financial losses – will suffer the most. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.umb.edu/faculty_staff/bio/marc_cohen">I am a clinical professor</a> of gerontology. <a href="https://www.umb.edu/gerontologyinstitute/about/fellows">My co-author is</a> a research fellow in gerontology. We believe that recent history, specifically the Great Recession of 2008-09, will demonstrate what’s at stake. </p>
<p>In a series of <a href="https://www.ncoa.org/covid-19/potential-financial-impacts-of-covid-19-on-older-adults/">research briefs</a> using data from the <a href="https://hrs.isr.umich.edu/welcome-health-and-retirement-study">Health and Retirement Study</a>, we analyzed the financial status of Americans 60 and older before and after that recession. We reviewed the data from a wide variety of demographic groups: non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and Hispanics; single-person and two-person, married households; retired and non-retired.</p>
<p>The findings paint a grim picture of what may come from the pandemic: a recession likely to have a far greater impact than the 2008-09 downturn, especially on minority older adults. Given that the unemployment rate among older minority Americans is already disproportionately high and that many have health conditions that make it difficult to work, their ability to change their financial situation is small compared to other groups. </p>
<iframe title="Post-recession: Poverty rises for 60+ Hispanics" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Esn2n" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Esn2n/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="158"></iframe>
<h2>Increasing poverty rates</h2>
<p>Beginning in 2008, older adults <a href="https://www.ncoa.org/covid-19/potential-financial-impacts-of-covid-19-on-older-adults/">experienced significant losses</a> across the board regardless of demographic groupings. Housing values, liquid assets and total net wealth all declined. Given the housing market collapse associated with the recession, sharp drops in home value were expected. More remarkable is that drops in assets and total net wealth were almost as steep. </p>
<p>Yet as one moves up the wealth stream, the recession’s financial impacts diminished for older adults. For the wealthiest 20%, losses ranged from 4% to 18%. But for those in the lowest 20%, financial assets and total wealth losses ranged from <a href="https://d2mkcg26uvg1cz.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020-C19-DG06_COVID-19-Issue-Brief_4-14.pdf">200% to 500%</a>. </p>
<p>For those 60 and older at or near the bottom, these losses were staggering. Poverty rates increased from <a href="https://www.ncoa.org/covid-19/potential-financial-impacts-of-covid-19-on-older-adults/">1 percentage point to 6 percentage points</a>, depending on the demographic group. These increases may seem small but in numbers of people it is enormous.</p>
<iframe title="Post-recession: Poverty rises for 60+ Non-Hispanic Blacks" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-5I0ie" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5I0ie/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="158"></iframe>
<p>In 2008, more than 50 million people in the U.S. were 60 and older. Roughly 1.2 million of them fell into poverty during the great recession and this represents a 46 percent increase in the poverty rate – <a href="https://d2mkcg26uvg1cz.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020-C19-DG06_COVID-19-Issue-Brief_4-14.pdf">a 5% poverty rate pre-recession compared to a 7.3% rate post-recession.</a></p>
<p>Today there are 75 million in the U.S. 60 and older. This time, a pandemic-instigated downturn could translate to 1.8 million seniors pushed into poverty, if impacts are similar to 2008-09. </p>
<p>To further break down <a href="https://www.ncoa.org/covid-19/potential-financial-impacts-of-covid-19-on-older-adults/">our analysis</a>: In the 2008-09 recession, single-person households and retired individuals had smaller increases in poverty compared to two-person households and non-retired individuals respectively. Both groups had notably higher percentages of their household income coming from Social Security retirement income and government benefit programs. </p>
<p>This suggests that government-based financial resources help mitigate the impact of a recession and slow increases in poverty, likely buffering those who qualify for Social Security and have adequate retirement savings from complete financial ruin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="More than 75 million Americans are 60 and older." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352384/original/file-20200811-17-165xjyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">More than 75 million in the U.S. are age 60 and older.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/older-retired-couple-on-couch-royalty-free-image/182105928?adppopup=true">Lola Takes Pictures via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Most vulnerable: Older minorities</h2>
<p>Given the pervasiveness of systemic racism in the U.S., it’s not surprising that older Blacks and older Hispanics suffered the deepest financial declines during the 2008 recession. </p>
<p>Older Hispanics had almost <a href="https://d2mkcg26uvg1cz.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020-C19-DG12_COVID-19-Issue-Brief_FINAL.pdf">twice the amount of losses</a> in net total wealth than non-Hispanic whites. They also had the highest increase in poverty, a 5.5 percentage point jump, more than any other demographic group. </p>
<p>Older Blacks had twice the decline in liquid financial assets when compared to white counterparts, and a 3.2 percentage point increase in poverty, the second highest. What’s worse: Prior to the 2008 recession, these groups already had drastically fewer financial resources than older whites, and quadruple the poverty rate.</p>
<p>Older adults living in single-person households also experienced significant financial losses despite not being hit quite as hard as older two-person households. Many are women, and a significant percentage are widows. Even in good economic times, they are typically at a much lower financial status. During a recession, things become precipitously worse; they are unable to absorb the financial losses that older two-person households, who often have double the financial resources, can. And, again, they are unlikely to be able to find a job and in many cases, unable to work even if they could.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In 2008-09, older single-person households <a href="https://d2mkcg26uvg1cz.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020-C19-DG19_COVID-19-Issue-Brief_Older-Single-Householders_7-24.pdf">experienced significant declines</a> across all financial measures, despite their reliance on Social Security and government benefits. By comparison, two-person households, often with two sources of income, are in a better financial position before, during and after a recession. They had half the rate of poverty than the older single-person households. </p>
<h2>Learning from the Great Recession</h2>
<p>The impact of COVID-19 will likely be worse than what we present here. The 2008-09 estimates probably offer only a best-case scenario. But they will help us understand the economic hardships that millions of older Americans now face because of the pandemic. Indeed, as health and economic threats overlap, they may bear the brunt of this catastrophe. </p>
<p>There is, however, a possible way out. Our evidence indicates that stable sources of government income and benefits may keep minority seniors from financial collapse. Anything less than that, and the risks facing these most vulnerable Americans become catastrophic certainties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Cohen received funding from the National Council on Aging for this analysis. He is a Research Director at the Center for Consumer Engagement in Health Innovation at Community Catalyst.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Tavares received funding from the National Council on Aging for this analysis.</span></em></p>New data shows the Great Recession hurt older, poorer Blacks and Hispanics the most. The pandemic downturn is likely to be even worse for them.Marc Cohen, Clinical Professor of Gerontology and Co-Director of the LeadingAge LTSS Center @UMass Boston, UMass BostonJane Tavares, Research Fellow, LeadingAge LTSS Center, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1375512020-04-30T15:36:37Z2020-04-30T15:36:37ZWhy South Africa needs to ensure income security beyond the pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331781/original/file-20200430-42903-1nan0qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Job seekers wait on the side of a road in South Africa. Joblessness stands at a record high.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mujahid Safodien/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A slew of countries ranging from the US to <a href="https://basicincome.org/news/2020/04/brazil-the-national-senate-approves-emergency-basic-income/">Brazil</a> to <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid-19-solidarity-budget-600-cash-payout-12635268">Singapore</a> to South Africa have decided to give people money in <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#U">response</a> to the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. </p>
<p>While the amounts and details of the grants have varied, these governments have all made it clear that such payments are a short-term emergency response to an exceptional situation. But is the economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19 as exceptional as it seems? Might the reasons for guaranteeing economic security be valid even without a global pandemic?</p>
<p>Take the case of South Africa. </p>
<p>The government has decided to substantially bolster the social security net, directing R50 billion to those most acutely affected by the crisis <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-further-economic-and-social-measures-response-covid-19">over the next six months</a>. This will be distributed in the form of increasing the current child support grant. In addition, pensions and disability grants will go up. But the biggest change is the introduction of a special <a href="https://www.gov.za/coronavirus/socialgrants">“COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant”</a> to be paid to people who are currently unemployed and do not receive any social grant or unemployment insurance for the next six months.</p>
<p>The new COVID-19 grant is the first time unemployed working-age adults are being included in the social grant system. Since 1994, the African National Congress government has resisted including them. And the resistance remains.</p>
<p>South Africa’s treasury has been busy making it clear that the new direct cash transfers are exceptional and <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-04-24-mboweni-gives-clarity-on-social-grant-top-ups-that-will-end-in-six-months/">temporary</a>. At a recent media briefing, finance minister Tito Mboweni <a href="https://twitter.com/NeilColemanSA/status/1253686184984920069">repeated again and again</a> that the additional grants were temporary. His anxiety that people will expect the additional grants to remain in place – and that they will become “agitated” when the grants are taken away – is palpable.</p>
<h2>Economic distress – before the pandemic</h2>
<p>The name of the new grant shows exactly what it’s meant for. Calling it the COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant makes it clear that this is an emergency measure, here only to relieve the distress of COVID-19. </p>
<p>But economic distress was the norm for many before the coronavirus outbreak. Illness, ill-fortune and economic precarity existed long before this pandemic. The outbreak only makes the economic crisis broader, deeper and more visible.</p>
<p>An accident, a family death, or a delayed train can happen to anyone. But for the large number of people in South Africa who <a href="https://theconversation.com/employed-but-still-poor-the-state-of-low-wage-working-poverty-in-south-africa-118018">work for low wages</a> without a proper contract, or who simply <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-08-05-unemployment-in-south-africa-is-worse-than-you-think/">cannot find work at all</a>, one of these events can be the tipping point into destitution. </p>
<p>They don’t need a pandemic to experience economic distress.</p>
<p>We would argue that South Africa needs more than emergency provisions such as a short-term new social grant or an <a href="https://basicincome.org/news/2020/04/emergency-basic-income-during-the-coronavirus-crisis/">emergency basic income</a>. Rather, it needs a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spain-universal-basic-income-coronavirus-yang-ubi-permanent-first-europe-2020-4?r=US&IR=T">permanent form</a> of economic security, be it in the form of a <a href="https://basicincome.org/basic-income/">universal basic</a> income that is given to all and then taxed back from those that don’t need it, or some other form of income guarantee for all. </p>
<h2>Work does not provide economic security for all</h2>
<p>Politicians are now willing to guarantee citizens some measure of economic security through the state because they cannot ask them to leave their homes and find economic security through work. But in a place like South Africa, finding economic security through wage labour was never the solution. It is just wishful thinking. </p>
<p>The statistics are stark: South Africa has an <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-08-05-unemployment-in-south-africa-is-worse-than-you-think/">unemployment rate of nearly 40%</a>. And of those lucky enough to have work, about 54% of full-time employees <a href="http://nationalminimumwage.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NMW-RI-Descriptive-Statistics-Final.pdf">earn below the working-poor line of R4,125</a> a month. </p>
<p>The current economic distress brought on by the pandemic is not a brand new crisis. It’s an amplification of what was already reality for many South Africans. Indeed, it deepens economic insecurity around the world: globally, <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_368252/lang--en/index.htm">over 60%</a> of workers are in <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_534326.pdf">“non-standard”</a> employment – that means it’s precarious, short-term or informal.</p>
<p>The link between wage labour and economic security has long been a mirage in South Africa. Mass unemployment and precarity are neither new nor temporary. They are structural and enduring features of South Africa, further compounded as companies collapse and invest in labour-saving technologies. The need to provide economic security beyond the labour market has long been political reality.</p>
<h2>Guaranteeing economic security</h2>
<p>The idea that economic security should be a universal right – much like universal access to health care – has been around for centuries. At its core, it’s simply the argument that no matter who they are or what they do, every human being should be guaranteed enough resources to stay alive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331790/original/file-20200430-42946-12cn4su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ray van Heerden, a car guard, from the poverty-stricken shantytown of Munsieville, cannot work due to the lockdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many ways to provide this kind of economic security. It could be via a social grant given to everyone who needs it. Or a negative income tax, a payment through the tax system that tops up the income of the poor to a basic level. Or it could be via a universal basic income – a regular payment to every resident, with no conditions or targeting. </p>
<p>Universal basic income has the advantage of simplicity. There’s no need for a bureaucracy to decide who should get it and who should not. And while many people critique it for being expensive and going to people who already have money, this is not the case. It goes to everyone, but is taxed back from the wealthy who don’t need it – meaning it both <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-universal-basic-income-costs-far-less-than-you-think-101134">costs less</a> than you might think, and ends up helping only those who really need it.</p>
<p>The biggest source of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/africa/article/labour-laziness-and-distribution-work-imaginaries-among-the-south-african-unemployed/B9DBDA172DB42F855DD499AF6D186646/share/e9e0f792be89ed65da54e4a7796b142663637c0b">resistance</a> to providing economic security to all, be it through universal basic income or other forms of guaranteed income, is the idea that people have to work for money – that “you can’t get money for nothing”. This is why, despite a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03057070701475575">big push</a> for basic income in the early 2000s, the South African state has always resisted the idea. But work has never been able to provide economic security for all in South Africa. Why keep expecting the poor to receive money through work only, when work is unavailable, or unstable and badly paid?</p>
<p>The fact that many countries are now giving citizens emergency cash could be a step in the right direction. Finally, anyone who needs it can access some form of economic support from the state. But this should not be a temporary measure. It does not address a new problem, but rather a very old one that is suddenly worse. What the country needs is not an emergency basic income, but a permanent income guarantee. In fact the Spanish government plans to maintain the basic income it is implementing <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-spain-universal-basic-income-europe-a9449336.html">beyond the pandemic</a>.</p>
<h2>No longer business as usual</h2>
<p>The circumstances that necessitate an income guarantee have long existed in South Africa. It is time for the government to acknowledge this. There can be no return to business as usual, because business as usual means poverty, suffering and ongoing economic distress.</p>
<p>The poor and most vulnerable understand that the economic insecurity they face is not a state of exception. It is the default. It will not end after the easing of the lockdown. </p>
<p>This international Workers’ Day, the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to see things as they are – that work cannot be assumed to shelter everyone from economic distress. It also provides an opportunity to delink basic livelihood from wage labour, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-labour-struggle-less-work-same-pay-and-basic-income-for-all-76903">begin to develop policies that deliver</a> an economically secure future for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137551/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Economic distress was the norm for many before the coronavirus outbreak. The pandemic is an opportunity to provide an economically secure future for all.Hannah J. Dawson, Post-doctoral fellow at the Society, Work and Politics Institute (SWOP), University of the WitwatersrandLiz Fouksman, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.