tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/solar-energy-6859/articlesSolar energy – The Conversation2024-03-21T12:22:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170732024-03-21T12:22:54Z2024-03-21T12:22:54ZCalifornia is wrestling with electricity prices – here’s how to design a system that covers the cost of fixing the grid while keeping prices fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582593/original/file-20240318-22-5gynnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1492%2C995&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As more homes like these in Folsom, Calif., add solar power, electricity pricing becomes more complicated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaSolarPanels/cda216b3bcfe42e9bf425a353b24f812/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Small-scale solar power, also known as rooftop or distributed solar, has grown considerably in the U.S. over the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341">past decade</a>. It provides electricity without emitting air pollutants or climate-warming greenhouse gases, and it meets local energy demand without requiring costly investments in transmission and distribution systems. </p>
<p>However, its expansion is making it harder for electric utilities and power grid managers to design fair and efficient retail electricity rates – the prices that households pay.</p>
<p>Under traditional electricity pricing, customers pay one charge per kilowatt-hour of electricity consumption that covers both the energy they use and the fixed costs of maintaining the grid. As more people adopt rooftop solar, they buy less energy from the grid. Fewer customers are left to shoulder utilities’ fixed costs, potentially making power more expensive for everyone. </p>
<p>This trend can drive more customers to leave the system and raise prices further – a scenario known as the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/09/25/three-ways-electric-utilities-can-avoid-a-death-spiral/?sh=46108d9b758d">utility death spiral</a>. One <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25087">2018 study</a> calculated that two-thirds of recent electricity distribution cost increases at California’s three investor-owned utilities were associated with the growth of residential solar. </p>
<p>With abundant sun and solar-friendly policies, California has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341#:%7E:text=We%20estimate%20that%20the%20United,MW">36% of U.S. small-scale solar capacity</a>, much more than any other state. And the state is engaged in a heated debate over <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2023/07/electricity-bills/">pricing electricity</a> in ways designed to make energy less expensive for low-income households. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/Intel2Grid">energy markets</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nKvcnXMAAAAJ&hl=en">public policy affecting energy and the environment</a>, and have analyzed various <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">retail electricity rate structures</a> and their economic impacts on power producers and consumers. Our key finding is that an income-based, fixed-charge rate structure of the type that California is currently considering offers the most efficient and equitable solution – if it is designed correctly.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The California Legislature approved fixed-rate electricity charges, based on income, in 2022. Now, state utility regulators are weighing a proposal that would formalize them.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Two-part power bills</h2>
<p>The debate over fixed charges began in 2022, when the California Legislature <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/utilities/bill-would-end-california-experiment-with-income-based-electric-bills">enacted an energy bill</a> that ordered state regulators to study income-based fixed charges and decide whether to adopt them by July 1, 2024. Then the state’s three largest utilities – Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas and Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric – <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/energy-division/documents/demand-response/demand-response-workshops/advanced-der---demand-flexibility-management/joint-ious-opening-testimony-exhibit-1.pdf">submitted a proposal</a> to the state Public Utilities Commission in mid-2023 that would separate retail bills into two parts: a fixed charge and a variable charge. </p>
<p>The fixed charge would be a preset monthly fee, independent of energy usage but tied to income levels, so wealthier customers would <a href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/02/utility-bills-reform-income-based/">pay a larger share of grid maintenance costs</a>. The variable charge would be based on the amount of electricity consumed and would cover the actual costs of electricity production and delivery. </p>
<p>Historically, these actual costs have typically ranged between <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">4 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour</a>. Today, the average residential rate in California <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">often exceeds 30 cents per kilowatt-hour</a> because it covers fixed costs as well as electricity use.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white utility truck drives toward a transformer tower framed by hills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Southern California Edison truck at a transformer tower in Sylmar, Calif. California utilities are burying thousands of miles of power lines in an effort to prevent a fraying grid from sparking wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaWildfiresUtility/65c4885a6bde436d9126f7b12b9d8959/photo">AP Photo/Christian Monterrosa</a></span>
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<h2>Who benefits?</h2>
<p>A two-part billing system that separates fixed costs from variable usage charges offers potential benefits for both consumers and utilities.</p>
<p>For utilities, the fixed charge offers a stable revenue stream. The companies know how many households they serve, and they can plan on the fixed amounts that those households will pay each month. Households that go solar would still pay the fixed charge, since most of them draw electricity from the grid when the sun doesn’t shine. </p>
<p>This approach provides financial stability for the utility and access to the grid for all. Consumers would benefit because with a certain amount of income guaranteed, utilities could charge significantly less per kilowatt-hour for the actual electricity that households use. </p>
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<p>One significant concern is that if electricity costs less, people may use more of it, which could undermine efforts toward energy conservation and lead to an increase in emissions. In our view, the way to address this risk is by fine-tuning the two-part billing structure so that it covers only a portion of the utilities’ costs through fixed charges and incorporates the rest into the variable usage rates. </p>
<p>Put another way, combining a lower fixed charge with a higher variable charge would ensure that utilities can still cover their fixed costs effectively, while encouraging mindful energy use among consumers. Ensuring affordable electricity for consumers, fair cost recovery for utilities and overall fairness and efficiency in the energy market requires striking a delicate balance.</p>
<p>Another argument from critics, often labeled “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3GDHaOJeIp/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==">energy socialism</a>,” asserts that higher-income households might end up <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/06/california-income-based-electricity-fees-2025">subsidizing excessive electricity use</a> by lower-income households under the income-based rate structure. In our view, this perception is inaccurate. </p>
<p>Wealthy households would pay more to maintain the grid, via larger fixed charges, than poorer households, but would not subsidize lower-income households’ energy use. All income groups would pay the same rate for each additional kilowatt-hour of electricity that they use. Decisions on energy use would remain economically driven, regardless of consumers’ income level. </p>
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<h2>Fixed fees are too big</h2>
<p>While our research supports California utilities’ approach in principle, we believe their proposal has shortcomings – notably in the proposed income brackets. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/06/20/california-electricity-bills-income-based/70331875007/">As currently framed</a>, households with annual incomes between US$28,000 and $69,000 would pay a fixed fee of $20 to $34 per month. Households earning between $69,000 and $180,000 would pay $51 to $73 per month, and those earning more than $180,000 would pay $85 to $128. </p>
<p>The middle-income bracket starts just above California’s <a href="https://statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Household-Income">median household income</a>. Consequently, nearly half of all California households could find themselves paying a substantial monthly fee – $51 to $73 – regardless of their actual electricity usage. </p>
<p>It could be hard to convince consumers to pay significant fixed fees for intangible services, especially middle-income residents who have either gone solar or may do so. Not surprisingly, the proposal has encountered considerable <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/05/08/the-income-graduated-fixed-charges-in-california-will-harm-customers-with-low-electric-bills/">pushback from the solar industry</a>. </p>
<h2>Finding the sweet spot</h2>
<p>In response to public outcry, California lawmakers recently introduced <a href="https://legiscan.com/CA/text/AB1999/id/2908602">Assembly Bill 1999</a>, which would replace the income-graduated fixed-charge requirement with fixed charges of $5 per month for low-income customers and up to $10 per month for others. In our view, this reaction goes too far in the other direction. </p>
<p>Capping fixed charges at such low levels would force utilities to hike their energy use rates to cover fixed costs – again, risking the death spiral scenario. Our research indicates that there is a <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">range for the fixed charge</a> that would cover a reasonable share of utilities’ fixed costs, but is not high enough to burden consumers.</p>
<p>Without utility cost data, we can’t pinpoint this range precisely. However, based on <a href="https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M520/K533/520533300.PDF">estimates of utilities’ costs</a>, we believe the caps proposed in AB 1999 are too low and could end up unfairly burdening those the bill aims to protect.</p>
<p>In our research, based on a hypothetical case study, we found a sweet spot in which fixed charges cover about 40% of utilities’ fixed costs. Charges at this level provide maximum benefit to consumers, although they reduce energy producers’ profits. </p>
<p>Our findings are similar to an <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">alternative proposal</a> jointly presented by <a href="https://www.turn.org/">The Utility Reform Network</a>, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization, and the <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/">Natural Resources Defense Council</a>, an environmental advocacy group. This plan suggests a two-part rate structure with an average fixed charge of about $36 per month. Low-income households would pay $5 per month, and those earning over $150,000 yearly would pay about $62.</p>
<p>We believe this proposal moves in the right direction by ensuring fair contributions to grid costs, while also encouraging efficient energy use and investment in clean energy infrastructure. It could act as a guide for other U.S. states searching for methods to balance utility fixed-cost recovery with fair pricing and continued growth of small-scale solar power.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to remove unsubstantiated information about the 2019 Saddleridge wildfire in California provided by AP in a photo caption.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217073/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>California is considering a controversial proposal for utilities to charge customers for electricity based partly on household income. Two scholars explain how this approach could benefit everyone.Yihsu Chen, Professor of Technology Management in Sustainability, University of California, Santa CruzAndrew L. Liu, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164232024-03-12T12:30:14Z2024-03-12T12:30:14ZSolar power occupies a lot of space – here’s how to make it more ecologically beneficial to the land it sits on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580757/original/file-20240308-22-g0m361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3019%2C1783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels shade grassland at Jack's Solar Garden, an agrovoltaic farm in Longmont, Colo.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As societies look for ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and slow climate change, large-scale solar power is playing a central role. Climate scientists view it as the tool with <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">the greatest potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2030</a>. In the U.S., the Department of Energy predicts that solar will <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61424">account for nearly 60%</a> of all new utility-scale electricity-generating capacity installed in 2024. </p>
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<p>But ideal locations for solar development often overlap with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47803-3">croplands or grasslands used for livestock grazing</a>. Typically, large-scale solar arrays are designed to maximize energy generation, without much consideration for the ecosystems in which they are placed. </p>
<p>For example, grading land and removing vegetation can <a href="https://www.popsci.com/environment/solar-farm-construction-epa-water-violations/">cause erosion and send runoff into waterways</a>. Solar developers have been fined for such environmental violations in <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/05/10/u-s-court-orders-developer-to-pay-135-5-million-in-100-mw-solar-property-damage-case/">Georgia</a>, <a href="https://www.gazettenet.com/Developer-to-pay-$1-14-million-for-wetlands-stormwater-violations-38651958#">Massachusetts</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/settlements-resolve-clean-water-act-violations-four-solar-farm-construction-sites-alabama">Alabama, Idaho and Illinois</a>. </p>
<p>There also are concerns about how large solar installations affect <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/11/climate/climate-change-wildlife-solar.html">animal movement patterns</a>. In the western U.S., removing native vegetation to make room for solar farms can threaten endangered animals and insects that rely on these plants as food and habitat. Native plant communities take a long time to reestablish themselves in these water-limited areas after they are disturbed.</p>
<p>I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Oyns6e8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">an ecologist</a> and a member of a research team led by <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=e5RTvRMAAAAJ&hl=en">Alan Knapp</a> at Colorado State University. We investigate how solar development affects grassland ecosystem health – in particular, how plants’ growth and water use patterns and response to light change once solar panels are installed overhead. Through this work, we hope to inform a more sustainable future for solar energy. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A row of solar photovoltaic panels with bushy tomato plants in front of them" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580762/original/file-20240308-20-ka23d0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This agrivoltaic solar array uses the space between rows of panels to grow tomatoes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Two land uses are better than one</h2>
<p>A growing alternative to using land solely for solar power generation is called agrivoltaics. As its name suggests, this strategy combines agriculture and solar power on the same piece of land. Agrivoltaic projects can take place on croplands, grazing lands and habitat for agriculturally important pollinators. This dual-use approach to solar development <a href="https://science.osti.gov/-/media/sbir/pdf/Market-Research/SETO---Agrivoltaics-August-2022-Public.pdf">has become popular worldwide</a></p>
<p>The <a href="https://openei.org/wiki/InSPIRE/Agrivoltaics_Map">vast majority</a> of agrivoltaic projects in the U.S. are on lands managed for livestock grazing and pollinator habitat. These sites are ideal for solar power colocation because, unlike croplands, they do not require irrigation or the use of large machinery. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">One version of agrivoltaics is combining solar arrays and livestock grazing.</span></figcaption>
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<p>However, these lands rely on rainfall to support plant growth, and the presence of solar panels affects how water reaches the soil. Most agrivoltaic arrays use sun-tracking programs that maximize energy production by tilting panels to follow the sun across the sky. As this happens, the panels create distinct micro-environments that are quite different from natural conditions. </p>
<p>For example, in Colorado, most precipitation occurs in the afternoon, when solar panels are tilted west toward the sun. As a result, most rainfall on agrivoltaic sites is concentrated at the panels’ western edges where it drops to the ground. This redistribution can multiply rainfall at panel edges by up to a factor of four, while restricting rainfall in other patches. </p>
<p>Another factor is that solar panels introduce shade on grasslands that are adapted to high light conditions. Because the arrays are optimized to intercept sunlight, much less light reaches plants beneath the panels.</p>
<h2>The ecology behind ecovoltaics</h2>
<p>So far, our work shows that the distinct micro-environments created by solar arrays produce similarly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4334">varied patterns of plant growth</a>. This finding is encouraging: It means that the environmental variation created by solar panels passively tracking the sun is enough to make plants respond differently. These micro-environments could potentially support a mosaic of plant communities that benefit from different conditions.</p>
<p>In some cases, mixed conditions like these, with varying levels of light and water, can be a good thing. A well-tested concept in restoration ecology – the science of restoring damaged ecosystems – is that environments with more variety support more diverse mixes of plants and animals.</p>
<p>In a 2023 paper, we outlined a concept that calls for an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02174-x">ecologically informed approach to solar development</a>. This approach, called ecovoltaics, requires giving equal priority to energy production and <a href="https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/ecosystem-services">ecosystem services</a>. </p>
<p>An ecovoltaic approach allows land managers to use solar to their advantage. Designing and managing solar arrays in ways that are rooted in fundamental ecological concepts can produce more synergies between ecosystems and solar energy.</p>
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<span class="caption">Ecovoltaic systems can be configured in different ways to achieve specific ecological goals, such as reducing water loss from soil or creating shady zones for grazing livestock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Land managers could use ecovoltaic approaches to improve degraded lands by designing solar arrays to enhance natural processes. For example, since the edges of solar panels redistribute and concentrate rainfall, making the soil beneath them wetter, they could aid in seedling establishment in those spots. </p>
<p>In arid regions, arrays could be designed to promote this effect and improve restoration. If water is scarce, arrays could be designed to reduce the amount of exposed ground, which in turn would reduce the amount of water lost to the atmosphere through evaporation. </p>
<h2>Doing solar differently</h2>
<p>Many factors influence land management decisions. The land’s history, access to water, soil types, vegetation and topography all play a role. Ecovoltaics adds another factor: balancing energy production per unit area with the ecological effects of a particular solar array. </p>
<p>An ecovoltaic approach to solar power requires fundamentally rethinking how solar development decisions are made. Today, access to electricity transmission lines limits where solar power can be deployed in many areas. If transmission lines and substations are too far away, or undersized, solar power is unlikely to be developed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheetbiden-harris-administration-announces-historic-investment-to-bolster-nations-electric-grid-infrastructure-cut-energy-costs-for-families-and-create-good-paying-jobs/">New transmission projects</a> that ease this geographic constraint could provide more options. With greater flexibility in choosing sites, developers could shift away from highly sensitive natural ecosystems and install solar arrays on abandoned, water-limited or otherwise degraded lands instead. Ecovoltaics could be a solution for stabilizing the economy of communities where productive land has been <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-top-colorado-farming-region-is-running-out-of-water-must-retire-land-to-avoid-well-shutdown/ar-BB1jgzFe">retired to conserve resources</a></p>
<p>Solar power is scaling up to levels that make it central to a clean energy transition. My colleagues and I believe that solar development should proceed in a way that reflects ecological thinking. In our view, an ecovoltaic approach to solar can produce positive ecological outcomes and make solar energy even more sustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Sturchio receives funding from the US Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture.</span></em></p>Solar development isn’t always good for the land, but pairing it with agriculture can produce multiple benefits.Matthew Sturchio, PhD Student in Plant and Ecosystem Ecology, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182972024-01-09T21:00:50Z2024-01-09T21:00:50ZSmall-scale solar has key benefits, and one critical weakness, over large solar farms<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/small-scale-solar-has-key-benefits-and-one-critical-weakness-over-large-solar-farms" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>A new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-023-02254-x">study shows size matters</a> in solar energy. The first ever life-cycle analysis comparing big and small solar <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/energy/energy-sources-distribution/renewables/solar-photovoltaic-energy/7303">photovoltaic systems</a> has concluded that small-scale solar systems are in fact better for the environment than even the largest, and most efficient, solar farm. </p>
<p>Historically, <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/evolution-of-solar-pv-module-cost-by-data-source-1970-2020">solar electric systems were so expensive that many felt they could not pay for themselves</a>. Today’s reality could not be more different with renewables now the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/renewables-cheapest-form-power">cheapest form of energy in the global mix</a>. Not only that, solar panels can now <a href="https://doi.org/10.1115/SED2002-1051">easily repay the energy invested in their production many times over</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<p>Today, the lowest solar costs are found in giant solar farms. This has led some to claim large solar operations are better for the environment. However, the new life cycle analysis that I coauthored with Riya Roy at the University of Western Ontario has similarly shown this is wrong too — smaller is better for the Earth.</p>
<h2>Solar is cheap and works in Canada</h2>
<p><a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/08/just-the-facts-the-cost-of-solar-has-fallen-more-quickly-than-experts-predicted/">Solar photovoltaic costs have dropped even faster than experts predicted</a> to the point that <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Solar-Is-Cheapest-Energy-Source-Says-IEA.html">solar electricity is normally the least expensive</a> source of power according to the International Energy Agency. </p>
<p>A recent study has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en12040674">everyone that lives in Michigan</a> would have thicker wallets if they invested in rooftop solar instead of paying the local utility for — often out-of-state — coal-fired power. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-worth-investing-in-a-battery-for-your-rooftop-solar-heres-what-buyers-need-to-know-but-often-cant-find-out-209219">Is it worth investing in a battery for your rooftop solar? Here's what buyers need to know (but often can't find out)</a>
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<p>Indeed, solar is so cheap it can subsidize other energy devices. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040834">solar-powered heat pumps are profitable for home owners</a> in the
northern United States and Canada as they offset the purchase of ‘natural’ gas. </p>
<p>Solar panels pay for the energy invested in them in less than a year even in Canada and they last for 25 years under warranty (but can last much longer). <a href="https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/emily-folk/effectiveness-of-solar-panels-during-the-winter-20201223">Solar panels actually get more efficient as the temperature gets colder,</a> and the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/101705582/Validating_Marion_and_Townsend_Snow_Shedding_Models_for_Solar_Photovoltaic_Systems">snow losses in most of Canada are actually modest</a> (only a few percent). You can even get a <a href="http://www.academia.edu/3081684/The_effect_of_spectral_albedo_on_amorphous_silicon_and_crystalline_silicon_solar_photovoltaic_device_performance">boost from snow albedo</a> (unless you have <a href="https://www.academia.edu/17524663/Impact_of_Snow_and_Ground_Interference_on_Photovoltaic_Electric_System_Performance">ground interference</a>). </p>
<p>As the climate continues to warm, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2YA00310D">snow will sadly become even less of a problem for solar panels</a>.</p>
<p>Although solar power works great in Canada, to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 and reach Canada’s commitments</a>, we will need a lot of solar panels. One study predicted we would need <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">only one per cent of Canada’s agricultural land to offset all fossil fuels for electricity generation</a> if we installed large-scale solar farms — a seemingly modest amount of land.</p>
<p>This, however, begs the question: should we have a bunch of rooftop systems or a few super-large solar farms?</p>
<h2>Your roof or a solar farm?</h2>
<p>Although solar farms cost less money per unit energy for the utilities, it might be smarter to put solar on your roof. </p>
<p>Our life cycle analysis study compared rooftop solar systems to multi-megawatt utility-scale solar photovoltaic systems from production to decommission. We found rooftop solar systems require 21 per cent to 54 per cent less input energy, make 18 per cent to 59 per cent less carbon dioxide equivalent of greenhouse gas emissions, and consume a reduced <a href="https://www.pbssocal.org/redefine/fact-check-how-much-water-does-solar-power-really-use">quantity of water</a> ranging from one per cent to 12 per cent per kilowatt-peak.</p>
<p>That means, the energy payback time of rooftop solar systems is approximately 51 per cent to 57 per cent lower than that of ground-mounted solar systems across all locations.</p>
<p>The primary reason for this huge advantage is that rooftop solar uses the existing infrastructure of the house or building and thus requires radically reduced material use as opposed to freestanding racks. Similarly, by putting the solar panels close to the <a href="https://circuitglobe.com/electrical-load.html">electric load</a>, transmission losses across the grid are reduced.</p>
<p>Overall, the <a href="https://www.treehugger.com/how-much-co-does-one-solar-panel-create-4868753">carbon dioxide payback time</a> was 378 to 428 per cent longer for ground mounted large-scale solar farms compared to rooftop solar for the same modules.</p>
<p>Although water use is dominated by the photovoltaic modules themselves, it is important to note that the water consumption for the utility scale ground rack is approximately six to 260 times that of the rooftop mounting structure depending upon variances in solar modules and mounting techniques.</p>
<h2>Or both?</h2>
<p>With these better environmental values, it might be tempting to conclude we should implement aggressive policies to encourage small-scale rooftop solar. This would provide for the most resilient infrastructure, save consumers a ton of money on electric bills and do good by the environment. </p>
<p>However, the plain truth is that, despite their clear benefits over large-scale operations, we simply do not have enough <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.01.001">rooftop area</a> to also cover needs like electrified heating and transportation. A mixed approach is needed.</p>
<p>We might consider for the additional solar power to come from agrivoltaics which purposefully combine solar with agriculture. Agrivoltaics has the advantage that it <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-shading-crops-with-solar-panels-can-improve-farming-lower-food-costs-and-reduce-emissions-202094">does not sacrifice agricultural land and indeed can lead to increased food production</a>. Agrivoltaics is highly profitable and is growing rapidly in the U.S., Asia and Europe and <a href="https://agrivoltaicscanada.ca/">agrivoltaics in Canada</a> has a strong foothold — with particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/mixed-use-solar-and-agricultural-land-is-the-silver-bullet-albertas-conservatives-have-wished-for-212409">notable potential benefits for a post-fossil fuels Alberta</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-panel-technology-is-set-to-be-turbo-charged-but-first-a-few-big-roadblocks-have-to-be-cleared-210723">Solar panel technology is set to be turbo-charged – but first, a few big roadblocks have to be cleared</a>
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<p>As is often the way, there is no one clear solution.</p>
<p>If you have an unshaded roof on your home or building then you should look for a local supplier to enjoy some cost savings on electricity. Likewise, if you own a farm consider installing agrivoltaics to grow more food while also making an additional income generating electricity to power our electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps. </p>
<p>Regardless, we can take heart in knowing that renewable solar electricity will no doubt play a key role in powering our world for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received funding for research from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). In addition, his past and present consulting work and research is funded by the United Nations, the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, many non-profits and for-profit companies in the energy and solar photovoltaic fields. He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada. He does not directly work for any solar manufacturer and has no direct conflicts of interests. </span></em></p>Looking to go solar? While small-scale solar delivers the best results with the least life-cycle impact, a mixed approach offers the best long-term path towards an all-electric future.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204582024-01-08T16:08:22Z2024-01-08T16:08:22ZGigantic solar farms of the future might impact how much solar power can be generated on the other side of the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568232/original/file-20240108-29-1u9uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5283%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-landscape-photovoltaic-solar-panel-1746395420">Kertu / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Sun’s energy is effectively limitless. While resources such as coal or gas are finite, if you are able to capture and use solar power it doesn’t prevent anyone else from also using as much sunshine as they need. </p>
<p>Except that isn’t quite the full story. Beyond a certain size, solar farms become large enough to affect the weather around them and ultimately the climate as a whole. In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5">new research</a> we have looked at the effect such climate-altering solar farms might have on solar power production elsewhere in the world.</p>
<p>We know that solar power is affected by weather conditions and output varies through the days and seasons. Clouds, rain, snow and fog can all block sunlight from reaching solar panels. On a cloudy day, output can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X04002373">drop by 75%</a>, while their efficiency also decreases at high temperatures.</p>
<p>In the long term, climate change could affect the cloud cover of certain regions and how much solar power they can generate. Northern Europe is likely to see a solar <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10014">decrease</a> for instance, while there should be a slight increase of available solar radiation in the rest of Europe, the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00949-9">US east coast</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/10/1/nwac242/6780217">northern China</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="clouds above solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cloudy weather means less solar energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-panel-farm-near-moonta-sa-2145570685">myphotobank.com.au / shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>If we were ever to build truly giant solar farms, spanning whole countries and continents, they may have a similar impact. In our recent study, we used a <a href="https://ec-earth.org/">computer program</a> to model the Earth system and simulate how hypothetical enormous solar farms covering 20% of the Sahara would affect solar power generation around the world.</p>
<p>A photovoltaic (PV) solar panel is dark-coloured and so absorbs much more heat than reflective desert sand. Although a fraction of the energy is converted to electricity, much of it still heats up the panel. And when you have millions of these panels grouped together, the whole area warms up. If those solar panels were in the Sahara, our simulations show this new heat source would <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-in-sahara-could-boost-renewable-energy-but-damage-the-global-climate-heres-why-153992">rearrange global climate patterns</a>, shifting rainfall away from the tropics and leading to the desert becoming greener again, much as it was just 5,000 or so years ago. </p>
<p>This would in turn affect patterns of cloud cover and how much solar energy could be generated around the world. Regions that would become cloudier and less able to generate solar power include the Middle East, southern Europe, India, eastern China, Australia, and the US south-west. Areas that would generate more solar include Central and South America, the Caribbean, central and eastern US, Scandinavia and South Africa.</p>
<p><strong>How global solar potential would be affected:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated world maps." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=87&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=87&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=87&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of changes in solar potential in the Sahara simulation. Changes to annual mean (left), December-January-February mean (centre), and June-July-August mean (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5">Long & Lu et al (2024)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Something similar happened when we simulated the effects of huge solar farms in other hotspots in Central Asia, Australia, south-western US and north-western China – each led to climate changes elsewhere. For instance, huge solar farms covering much of the Australian outback would make it sunnier in South Africa, but cloudier in the UK, particularly during summer.</p>
<p><strong>If huge solar farms were installed in other drylands:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated world maps" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in solar potential annually (top panels), in december-january-february (middle panel), and june-july-august (bottom panel) in four scenarios where huge solar farms were constructed. The solar farms in Central Asia, Central Australia and Southwestern USA, Northwestern China are shown by purple polygons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5">Long & Lu (2024)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are some caveats. Things would only shift by a few per cent at most – however much solar power we build Scandinavia will still be cool and cloudy, Australia still hot and sunny. </p>
<p>And in any case, these effects are based on hypothetical scenarios. Our Sahara scenario was based on covering 20% of the entire desert in PV solar farms, for instance, and though there have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-we-turn-the-sahara-desert-into-a-huge-solar-farm-114450">ambitious proposals</a>, anything on that scale is unlikely to happen in the near future. If the covered area is reduced to a more plausible (though still unlikely) 5% of the Sahara, the global effects become mostly negligible. </p>
<h2>Why this thought experiment matters</h2>
<p>But in a future world in which almost every region invests in more solar projects and becomes more reliant on them, the interplay of solar energy resources can potentially shape the energy landscape, creating a complex web of dependencies, rivalries and opportunities. Geopolitical manoeuvring of solar project construction by certain nations may hold significant new power influencing solar generation potential far across their national boundaries.</p>
<p>That’s why it is essential to foster collaboration among nations to ensure that the benefits of solar energy are shared equitably around the world. By sharing knowledge and working together on the spatial planning of future large-scale solar projects, nations should develop and implement fair and sustainable energy solutions and avoid any unintended risks to solar power production far away.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zhengyao Lu receives funding from FORMAS, the Crafoord Foundation, and the Swedish Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jingchao Long receives funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China, The key construction discipline of high-level universities-Marine science, and GSTOEW.</span></em></p>Solar farms that span whole countries could change the climate – new study.Zhengyao Lu, Researcher in Physical Geography, Lund UniversityJingchao Long, Associate Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, Guangdong Ocean UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138792023-10-18T19:05:56Z2023-10-18T19:05:56ZThe original and still the best: why it’s time to renew Australia’s renewable energy policy<p>If Australia is to meet its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=In%20June%202022%20Australia%20updated,emissions%20budget%20from%202021%2D2030.">commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, we need to cut emissions faster. Even if all current government policy commitments are achieved – an unlikely outcome given delays in implementation – emissions are still <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=Under%20a%20'with%20additional%20measures,below%202005%20levels%20by%202035.">projected to be only 40% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>Last year the federal government announced that <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=But%20then%20in%20December%202022,renewable%20electricity%20target%20by%202030%E2%80%9D.">82% of all electricity production</a> would come from renewable energy by 2030. This was a crucial step. To have any chance of hitting our overall emission reduction targets, we must speed up the rollout of renewable energy. </p>
<p>Several experts, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Tony Wood at the Grattan Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/clean-energy-council-releases-power-playbook">Clean Energy Council</a> are calling on governments to consider using the Renewable Energy Target (RET) to accelerate investment in new renewable supply. Why are these experts recommending the RET as a policy option?</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>A brief history of renewable energy in Australia</h2>
<p>At the turn of the century Australia had almost no wind or solar energy generation. In 2001, the Howard government recognised the potential benefits of renewables and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/august/ret-review#:%7E:text=The%20RET%20was%20originally%20introduced,on%20top%20of%20existing%20generation.">introduced the RET</a>. The target, which was expanded and reformed by the Rudd and Abbott governments, has two elements:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target">Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target</a>, which requires retailers to buy a set percentage (currently about 15%) of their energy from renewable producers through the purchase of a Large-Scale Generation Certificate</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Small-scale-Renewable-Energy-Scheme">Small-Scale Renewable Energy Scheme</a>, which provides an upfront subsidy to households and small businesses that install their own rooftop solar panels. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Over the past two decades, the RET has been by far the most effective of all Australia’s climate initiatives. It has led to an additional 40 gigawatts (the capacity of around <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2023/april/agls-liddell-power-station-closes-after-52-years-of-operation">20 Liddell power stations</a>) of new solar and wind generation. It has lifted Australia’s renewable generation from almost nothing other than hydro (from Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro) in 2000 to nearly <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=all&interval=1y&view=discrete-time">37% of all electricity today</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<p>Between 2011 and 2021, the RET accounted for more than half of Australia’s greenhouse gas abatement, delivering by 2021 40 million metric tonnes (Mt) out of about 75 Mt. Over a decade that’s the equivalent of retiring two very large coal-fired power stations each year (see chart below). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Clean Energy Regulator</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The RET succeeded for two reasons. First, its targets extend all the way through to 2030, creating certainty for investors. Second, it created a market that encourages retailers to purchase the lowest-cost large-scale generation certificates. In purchasing a certificate, the retailer pays the difference between the cost of a project and what its generated power earns on the market. </p>
<p>That approach has diversified our renewable energy mix by making it easier to compare different technologies. For example, a wind farm might cost more to build than a solar farm but it can potentially earn more on the market by generating at the right time of day or night. A greater diversity of renewable energy sources means more reliable generation. </p>
<h2>Why has the boom in renewables investment stalled?</h2>
<p>The bad news is that while investment in <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/australian-rooftop-solar-breaks-new-ground-in-2022-clean-energy-australia-report">small-scale solar photovoltaic continues to grow</a>, investment in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/worldtoday/renewable-energy-investment-stalls/102765622">large-scale renewables has largely stalled</a>. There are two main reasons why. </p>
<p>First, Australia must build more transmission infrastructure. We have great renewable energy resources but we need new transmission lines to take that energy to homes and businesses. Governments have recognised this and are prioritising new <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/2022-documents/a3-renewable-energy-zones.pdf?la=en">Renewable Energy Zones</a>, with the Commonwealth providing substantial funding through its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/rewiring-the-nation">Rewiring the Nation</a> package.</p>
<p>But the second reason for the stalled investment is less well known. The
<a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target#:%7E:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20amendment,post%2D2020%20targets%20adjusted%20accordingly.">target of 33 terrawatt hours</a> under the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20Australia%20met%20its,terawatt%2Dhours%20(TWh).&text=With%20the%202020%20targets%20being,Victoria%20and%20the%20Northern%20Territory.">largely achieved in 2020</a> and since then has not been increased. The current legislated target is about 15%, well below the government’s commitment to reach 82% by 2030. Why did governments pivot away from the successful RET policy?</p>
<p>In the late 2010s, the Commonwealth government was not interested in increasing renewable energy targets. So state governments keen to act on climate change moved away from using the RET and other market-based policies, instead creating their own policy frameworks, known as <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/industry/long-term-energy-service-agreements">Contracts-for-Difference</a>.</p>
<p>Under these frameworks, state governments hold reverse auctions and award solar and wind projects a contract for a guaranteed price for their energy for 15–20 years. </p>
<p>Government contracts-for-difference can be a useful tool to assist new technologies, such as offshore wind, to enter the market. But they have <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1901.html">significant limitations</a> when they are used to deploy mature technologies such as solar and wind. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The most obvious problem is that, in contrast to a market framework such as the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target, under contracts-for-difference the government becomes the only market for renewable energy. The government assumes the risk of any project, freeing operators from the need to efficiently locate and run their projects. If a project fails, the public pays the cost in higher power prices or taxes. </p>
<p>Moreover, when government is buying the power, it naturally often goes for the cheapest option, thereby usually favouring solar and narrowing our renewable energy mix. And a generator has no incentive to sell its electricity to households and businesses. The result is that investors hold off building new projects, waiting instead to be awarded a contract-for-difference. </p>
<p>This dynamic is stalling investment even as coal generators near the end of their useful lives and the market demand for both energy and firming capacity grows. </p>
<h2>Governments working together to get investment flowing</h2>
<p>But there is reason to be optimistic. The states and the Commonwealth all now agree on the need to rapidly decarbonise the electricity sector by deploying renewables, transmission and storage. Now the states have the opportunity to work with the Commonwealth to incorporate their different frameworks into a nationally consistent, market-based approach built on the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target. </p>
<p>The simplest approach, which would create a pivot back to market-based frameworks, would be to legislate to increase that target each year to achieve a linear growth from current renewable energy levels to 82% in 2030. </p>
<p>Under that solution, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421521005139">history suggests</a> investors would rush to capture their share of the target. Investors and energy retailers would work together to find the right mix of technologies to deliver the lowest-cost power to consumers.</p>
<p>A national 82% renewable energy target also ensures that as other <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/sectoral-decarbonisation-plans-a-welcome-priority-for-australias-government/">sectors use electrification</a> to decarbonise, they will have access to clean energy. Without a target, electrification may lead to use of high-emissions coal power. </p>
<p>Under our proposal, state governments could still pursue their own objectives, such as supporting projects in a particular region, but they could <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12457">align their policy frameworks with the RET</a> by funding the cost of Large-Scale Generation Certificates rather than entire renewable energy projects.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If the electricity sector does not reach 82% by 2030, other sectors will have to do more to deliver our legislated 43% reduction in emissions by 2030. This is likely to be more costly and unnecessarily increase pressure on our trade-exposed industries, which would be required to reduce emissions more quickly at higher cost.</p>
<p>No Australian emission reduction policy matches the success of the Renewable Energy Target. By working together and aligning their renewable energy policies with the target, Commonwealth and state governments can get Australia’s renewable energy investment back on track, providing us with a reliable, competitive and clean electricity system by 2030 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, which develops renewable projects and batteries. He is also a Climate Councillor.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore an Associate Professor at Griffith University and is the General Manager Policy and Regional Energy at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tahlia Nolan is the Commercial Manager Hydrogen at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries. </span></em></p>Of all Australia’s climate policies, the Renewable Energy Target has been the most effective. Why have Australian governments moved away from it, and how can they revive it?Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityJoel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityTahlia Nolan, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153002023-10-12T15:51:06Z2023-10-12T15:51:06ZIf the first solar entrepreneur hadn’t been kidnapped, would fossil fuels have dominated the 20th century the way they did?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553472/original/file-20231012-27-mjmwd7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1010%2C677&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">George Cove stands next to his third solar array.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2021/10/how-to-build-a-low-tech-solar-panel.html">Popular Electricity Magazine, April 1910 / Low Tech Magazine</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One argument put forward in defence of fossil fuels is that they were a historical necessity, because there was no other viable substitute for much of the 20th century. We owe fossil fuels a debt of gratitude, the argument goes, because they supercharged our development. But what if I told you there was a viable alternative, and that it may have been sabotaged by fossil fuel interests from its very inception?</p>
<p>While researching the <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/person/dr-sugandha-srivastav">economics of clean energy innovation</a>, I came across a little-known story: that of Canadian inventor George Cove, one of the world’s first renewable energy entrepreneurs. Cove invented household solar panels that looked uncannily similar to the ones being installed in homes today – they even had a rudimentary battery to keep power running when the Sun wasn’t shining. Except this wasn’t in the 1970s. Or even the 1950s. This was in 1905.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modern Electrics newspaper article on solar power" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1088&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1088&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1088&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harnessing sunlight, 114 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015051407073&view=1up&seq=5&skin=2021">Modern Electrics / Hathi Trust</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cove’s company, Sun Electric Generator Corporation, based in New York, was capitalised at US$5 million (around US$160 million in <a href="https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/1910?amount=5000000">today’s money</a>). By 1909, the idea had gained widespread media attention. <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015051407073&view=1up&seq=5&skin=2021">Modern Electric magazine</a> highlighted how “given two days’ sun… [the device] will store sufficient electrical energy to light an ordinary house for a week”. </p>
<p>It noted how cheap solar energy could liberate people from poverty, “bringing them cheap light, heat and power, and freeing the multitude from the constant struggle for bread”. The piece went on to speculate how even aeroplanes could be powered by batteries charged by the sun. A clean energy future seemed to be there for the taking.</p>
<h2>Vested interests?</h2>
<p>Then, according to a report in The New York Herald on 19 October 1909, Cove was kidnapped. The condition for his release required forgoing his solar patent and shutting down the company. Cove refused and was later released near Bronx Zoo.</p>
<p>But after this incident, his solar business fizzled out. Which seems odd – in the years before the kidnapping, he had developed several iterations of the solar device, improving it each time.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Old photo of solar panel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cove’s solar panel in 1909.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf/page362-943px-The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf.jpg">Technical World Magazine / wiki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I can’t say with certainty if vested interests were behind it. Some at the time accused Cove of staging the kidnapping for publicity, although this would seem out of character, especially since there was no shortage of media attention. Other <a href="https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/MCR/article/view/17744/22231">sources</a> suggest that a former investor may have been behind it. </p>
<p>What is well-known though, is that fledgling fossil fuel companies commonly deployed <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-robber-barons-matthew-josephson?variant=39939204349986">unscrupulous practices</a> towards their competitors. And solar was a threat as it is an inherently democratic technology – everyone has access to the sun – which can empower citizens and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/03/energy-citizenship-europes-communities-forging-a-low-carbon-future">communities</a>, unlike fossil fuels which necessitate empire-building. </p>
<p>Standard Oil, led by the world’s first billionaire <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-D-Rockefeller">John D Rockefeller</a>, squashed competition so thoroughly that it compelled the government to introduce <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/standard_oil_co._of_new_jersey_v._united_states_(1911)">antitrust laws</a> to combat monopolies.</p>
<p>Similarly, legendary inventor <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Edison">Thomas Edison</a> electrocuted horses, farm animals and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2017/04/26/thomas-edison-the-electric-chair-and-a-botched-execution-a-death-penalty-primer/">even a human on death row</a> using his rival <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-rise-and-fall-of-nikola-tesla-and-his-tower-11074324/">Nikola Tesla’s</a> <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/war-currents-ac-vs-dc-power">alternating current</a> to show how dangerous it was, so that Edison’s own technology, the direct current, would be favoured. Cove’s Sun Electric, with its off-grid solar, would have harmed Edison’s business case for building out the electric power grid using coal-fired power. </p>
<p>While some scattered efforts in solar development occurred after Cove’s kidnapping, there were no major commercial activities for the next four decades until the concept was <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/document-deep-dive-patent-first-practical-solar-cell-1-180947906/">revived by Bell Labs</a>, the research branch of Bell Telephone Company in the US. In the meantime, coal and oil grew at an unprecedented pace and were supported through taxpayer dollars and government policy. The climate crisis was arguably underway.</p>
<h2>Four lost decades</h2>
<p>When I discovered Cove’s story, I wanted to know what the world lost in those 40 years, and ran a thought experiment. I used a concept called Wright’s law, which has applied to most <a href="https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:17256b64-f822-40ef-8770-5d0fa1ddc73e/download_file?file_format=application%2Fpdf&safe_filename=Way_et_al_2022_Empirically_grounded_technology.pdf&type_of_work=Journal+article">renewables</a> – it’s the idea that as production increases, costs decline due to process improvements and learning.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="George Cove photo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1027&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1027&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1027&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1290&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1290&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar pioneer George Cove also patented an early tidal power device.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf/page363-943px-The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf.jpg">Technical World Magazine / wiki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I applied this to <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/How-the-kidnapping-of-a-solar-energy-pioneer-impacted-the-cost-of-renewable-energy-and-the-climate-crisis.pdf">calculate</a> the year solar would have become cheaper than coal. To do this, I assumed solar power grew modestly between 1910 and 1950, and worked out how this additional “experience” would have translated into cost declines sooner. </p>
<p>In a world in which Cove succeeded and solar competed with fossil fuels from the get go, it would have trumped coal by as early as 1997 – when Bill Clinton was president and the Spice Girls were in their heyday. In reality, this event occurred in 2017. </p>
<h2>An alternate century</h2>
<p>Of course, this still assumes that the energy system would have been the same. It is possible that if solar were around from 1910 and never disappeared, the entire trajectory of energy innovation could have been very different – for example, maybe more research money would have been directed towards batteries to support decentralised solar. The electric grid and railways that were used to support the coal economy would have received far less investment. </p>
<p>Alternatively, more recent advances in manufacturing may have been essential for solar’s take-off and Cove’s continued work would not have resulted in a major change. Ultimately, it is impossible to know exactly what path humanity would have taken, but I wager that avoiding a 40 year break in solar power’s development could have spared the world huge amounts of carbon emissions.</p>
<p>While it might feel painful to ponder this great “what if” as the climate breaks down in front of our eyes, it can arm us with something useful: the knowledge that drawing energy from the sun is nothing radical or even new. It’s an idea as old as fossil fuel companies themselves. </p>
<p>The continued dominance of fossil fuels into the 21st century was not inevitable – it was a choice, just not one many of us had a say in. Fossil fuels were supported initially because we did not understand their deadly environmental impacts and later because the lobby had grown so powerful that it <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0368-6">resisted</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/14/exxonmobil-documents-wall-street-journal-climate-science">change</a>.</p>
<p>But there is hope: solar energy now provides some of the cheapest electricity humanity has <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea/">ever</a> seen, and the costs are continuing to plummet with deployment. The faster we go, <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/news/decarbonising-energy-system-2050-could-save-trillions">the more we save</a>. If we embrace the spirit of optimism seen during Cove’s time and make the right technology choices, we can still reach the sun-powered world he envisioned all those years ago.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sugandha Srivastav receives funding from the British Academy and the Climate Compatible Growth Programme. </span></em></p>The 1909 incident may have cost the industry decades of progress – and the planet huge amounts of damaging carbon emissions.Sugandha Srivastav, British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, Environmental Economics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114742023-09-06T19:11:25Z2023-09-06T19:11:25ZHow recycling could solve the shortage of minerals essential to clean energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544662/original/file-20230824-21082-9pxfgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=530%2C0%2C4895%2C2651&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An ambitious clean energy transition requires more of the metals and minerals used to build clean energy technologies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do silver, silicon and gallium have in common? These expensive raw materials are essential components of our various solar energy technologies. What about neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium? These rare earth metals are used to <a href="https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/2ea6ecb2-40e2-11eb-b27b-01aa75ed71a1/language-en">build the powerful magnets in wind turbines</a>. </p>
<p>Keeping our planet liveable requires <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">accelerated clean energy transitions</a> by governments — <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">global carbon emissions must</a> halve by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>But a more ambitious clean energy transition requires more of the metals and minerals used to build clean energy technologies. As the global energy sector <a href="https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review">shifts from fossil fuels to clean energy</a>, the demand of <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals">precious metals</a> — known as critical minerals — is increasing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Critical minerals are vital for renewable energy. We must learn to mine them responsibly</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>A striking example is lithium, a metal used in electric vehicle batteries. Between 2018 and 2022, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/australias-potential-in-the-lithium-market">the demand for lithium increased by 25 per cent per year</a>. Under a net-zero scenario, lithium demand by 2040 could be <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary">over 40 times what it was in 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Supply and demand</h2>
<p>The current challenge lies in a supply and demand mismatch. The projected demand for critical minerals exceeds the available supply. Basic principles of economics dictate higher prices for these minerals. </p>
<p>In addition, critical minerals have a geographically concentrated supply. These metals are only extracted from <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/42881">a handful of countries and are overwhelmingly processed in China</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing the demand for important metals is outpacing supply" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The current production rates of critical metals are likely to be inadequate to satisfy future demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(International Monetary Fund)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China, for example, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023/clean-energy-supply-chains-vulnerabilities">extracts 60 per cent and processes 90 per cent</a> of all rare earth elements. In comparison, the top oil-producing country — the United States — accounts for only <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ffd2a83b-8c30-4e9d-980a-52b6d9a86fdc/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">18 per cent of the extraction and 20 per cent of the processing of the whole industry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph that illustrates a select few countries are responsible for the extraction of selected minerals and fossil fuels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Share of top producing countries in the extraction of selected minerals and fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(IEA)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The geographical concentration may result in additional supply constraints. Indonesia, the world’s first nickel producer, has progressively <a href="https://www.iea.org/policies/16084-prohibition-of-the-export-of-nickel-ore">banned the export of nickel ore overseas</a> in an attempt to strengthen domestic processing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph that illustrates a select few countries are responsible for the processing of selected minerals and fossil fuels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Share of top producing countries in total processing of selected minerals and fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(IEA)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lack of geographical diversity in supply can increase price volatility. Lithium prices <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-slump-puts-chinas-spot-price-under-spotlight-andy-home-2023-05-19/">rose more than 400 per cent in 2022, before dropping again by 65 per cent in 2023</a>. Copper prices soared in Peru following <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/disruptions-raise-chance-copper-supply-tightness-2023-02-03/">social unrest and mine blockades</a>.</p>
<p>China, which controls 98 per cent of the gallium supply, created a 40 per cent spike in 2023 on gallium prices by setting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-controls-take-effect-wait-gallium-germanium-export-permits-begins-2023-08-01/">severe restriction on exports</a> due to “national security reasons.”</p>
<p>If supply constraints continue, the prices of critical minerals could become too high. Installing clean energy could become too expensive, and governments may find it hard to reach their clean energy targets. </p>
<p>The demand and supply balance must be restored by one of two ways: either by decreasing the demand for critical materials or increasing their supply.</p>
<h2>Restoring balance</h2>
<p>The most obvious way to restore the balance between supply and demand — more mining — is tricky. Mining is environmentally destructive and <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/will-mining-resources-needed-clean-energy-cause-problems-environment">damages ecosystems and communities</a>. Plans for opening new mines in <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/energie/mines-de-lithium-en-france-des-projets-mais-encore-beaucoup-d-interrogations_5546643.html">France</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbian-pm-sees-no-chance-reviving-rio-tinto-lithium-project-2022-12-13/">Serbia</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102912">Portugal</a> have seen massive social opposition, leaving their future uncertain. </p>
<p>Opening a new mine can take <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/discovery-to-production-averages-15-7-years-for-127-mines">more than 15 years on average</a>, so projects started today might arrive too late. While some capacity can be built quicker by reopening old mines, and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-is-embarking-on-a-mining-renaissance-winning-over-locals-is-proving-a-challenge-b7d14f5f">some projects are already underway</a>, supply imbalances are expected to be <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/afc35261-41b2-47d4-86d6-d5d77fc259be/CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.pdf">inevitable by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond mining, two alternative practical approaches exist. The first is to reduce the demand for critical minerals by clean energy technologies. With innovation and research and development, clean energy products can be redesigned to use less material in each generation. </p>
<p>The silver content in solar cells <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/solar-driven-silver-demand-set-to-dim-as-sector-innovates-60533352">dropped by 80 per cent in one decade</a>. Likewise, the cathodes in new electric vehicle batteries <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/battery-makers-slash-cobalt-intensity-in-the-face-of-accelerating-demand-71813202">contain up to six times less cobalt</a> than older models.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A block of a silvery mineral is held in gloved hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Refined tellurium, a rare mineral used in solar panels, is shown at the Rio Tinto Kennecott refinery in May 2022 in Magna, Utah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second alternative is to increase the supply of critical minerals by recovering them from older and used clean technology products via advanced recycling. Decommissioned solar panels might no longer produce energy but can be a valuable source of silver or silicon. </p>
<p>Our past research has shown that <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power">discarded solar panels could outweigh new installations by the next decade</a> as installers <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2019/short-lived-solar-panels-economic-0919">seek to replace older panels with newer, more efficient ones</a>.</p>
<p>By recovering critical minerals from this waste <a href="https://hillnotes.ca/2023/04/21/electrical-and-electronic-equipment-waste-an-urban-mine-with-great-potential/">in a process known as urban mining</a>, we could cover the demand for the materials needed for future energy installations.</p>
<h2>Recycling is the way forward</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4424516">recent research with our colleague Luk Van Wassenhove</a> compares the economic consequences of these two alternative approaches. If the scarcity of critical minerals is not extreme, reducing the critical material content of clean energy products would be the way to go. </p>
<p>However, unintended consequences can be expected akin to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00026">rebound effect or Jevon’s paradox</a>: by improving the efficiency of usage of critical minerals, producers can end up consuming more of it. </p>
<p>As clean energy products use less critical material, their improved profitability could increase production even more. As a result, decreasing the material usage per product won’t necessarily lead to a decrease in critical material demand overall.</p>
<p>In contrast, our research suggests that recycling decommissioned products is not subject to such a rebound effect. A steady stream of recycled materials from end-of-life products protects producers from volatile commodity prices and better facilitates the critical energy transition.</p>
<p>Setting up a recycling ecosystem requires greater effort than marginally changing a product’s design. Firms need a cost-efficient reverse logistics system, recycling plants and infrastructure to get enough end-of-use products back and to process them. Sizeable initial capital investments will take time to recover and require firms and policymakers to adopt a long-term mindset.</p>
<p>But there’s room for optimism. The start-up ROSI Solar opened its first recycling plant in 2023, making France a pioneer in <a href="https://recyclinginternational.com/business/mega-solar-recycling-plant-not-a-dream-of-the-future/53692/">recovering high-purity silicon, silver and copper from end-of-use solar panels</a>. </p>
<p>Likewise, the U.S.-based <a href="https://www.solarcycle.us/">SOLARCYCLE can recycle 95 per cent of valuable materials in solar panels</a>. Many electric vehicle makers, like <a href="https://www.autoblog.com/2023/07/04/nissan-takes-the-long-complex-approach-to-recycling-old-ev-batteries/">Tesla, Renault and Nissan</a>, have started projects to recycle batteries and ensure a riskless cobalt, nickel and lithium supply. Recycling may indeed be the path to affordable clean energy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The demand for the minerals needed to build clean energy technology currently exceeds the available supply. If this issue continues, governments may find it hard to reach their clean energy targets.Serasu Duran, Assistant Professor, Operations and Supply Chain Management at Haskayne School of Business, University of CalgaryAtalay Atasu, Professor of Technology and Operations Management, INSEADClara Carrera, PhD Candidate in Technology and Operations Management, INSEADLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124092023-09-05T20:22:38Z2023-09-05T20:22:38ZMixed-use solar and agricultural land is the silver bullet Alberta’s Conservatives have wished for<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545121/original/file-20230828-13578-t120xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3840%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Placing vertical solar panels on farming land allows for energy production and higher yields.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aasen_agrivoltaics_solar_plant_with_walls_of_vertical_bifacial_modules_near_Donaueschingen_Germany_5.jpg">(Wikimedia Commons)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/mixed-use-solar-and-agricultural-land-is-the-silver-bullet-albertas-conservatives-have-wished-for" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The Alberta government recently announced a much-maligned <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=887605547987E-EABF-5E23-DFF2C9F72DB845E6">seven-month pause on renewable (including solar) energy development in the province</a>. While the exact reasons are up for debate, one specific factor has been the desire to investigate ways to make renewable energy, particularly solar, more integrated within the province over the long term. </p>
<p>Specifically, there is a real concern among some in the party and the general public that industrial solar will displace farming and raise food prices as well as create <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-renewable-energy-jason-schneider-vulcan-county-1.6939218">end-of-life problems with potentially abandoned equipment</a>. </p>
<p>Luckily, we can have our cake and eat it too, with a new concept of agrivoltaics. Agrivoltaics is the simultaneous placement of food crops and solar photovoltaic systems that produce electricity directly from sunlight — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.04.012">while also producing a beneficial micro climate</a>. Covering crops with solar panels may not seem intuitive, however, dozens of studies from all over the world have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">many crop yields increase when they are partially shaded from solar panels</a>.</p>
<p>This is good news for everyone, but especially for Alberta’s ruling Conservatives, as it provides a seemingly simple solution to a potentially complicated land-use debate between agriculture and energy generation within the province. </p>
<h2>Alberta and energy</h2>
<p>Alberta’s energy portfolio is changing rapidly. <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables/solar-pv">Low-cost solar energy</a> is now <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/what-on-earth-solar-power-alberta-1.6695287">growing so fast as to be a “gold rush” in Alberta</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, much to <a href="https://cleanenergycanada.org/report/a-renewables-powerhouse/">Ontario’s shame, Alberta</a> has taken on the leadership role in solar development in Canada, generating millions of solar dollars and creating thousands of <a href="https://renewablesassociation.ca/alberta-renewable-energy-surge-could-power-4500-jobs/">solar jobs for Alberta’s energy workers</a>. </p>
<p>Solar companies have grown so fast precisely because there is profit in offsetting costly fossil-fuel electricity. However, many in Alberta are worried that this new boom will lead to <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023007/article/00005-eng.htm">higher food costs</a>, <a href="https://www.orphanwell.ca/about/orphan-inventory/">scarred landscapes</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7990003/alberta-oil-gas-wells-cleanup/">a repeat of costs from cleaning up after the oil and gas industry</a>.</p>
<p>This particular <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.10.024">land-use conflict between solar and agriculture</a> has been a concern for solar researchers like myself for some time. However, our research in the United States has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.024">agrivoltaics provide higher economic productivity, energy and food yields</a>. So much so that the U.S. <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-8-million-integrate-solar-energy-production-farming">Department of Energy is now investing millions of dollars</a> to ensure America’s dominance in the field. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-shading-crops-with-solar-panels-can-improve-farming-lower-food-costs-and-reduce-emissions-202094">How shading crops with solar panels can improve farming, lower food costs and reduce emissions</a>
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<p>One of the studies in the U.S., for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0364-5">observed pepper production shoot up by more than 200 per cent</a> while other crops like wheat in Germany were more reserved with a few per cent increase — but they still produced more wheat. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, agrivoltaics is slated to grow to a <a href="https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/agrivoltaics-market-A47446">$9.3 billion market by 2031</a>.</p>
<h2>Agrivoltaics in Canada</h2>
<p>Agrivoltaics is happening right here in Canada already (mostly with sheep grazing between panels on marginal land). Last year, we held the <a href="https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/news/news-ivey/2022/december/are-solar-farms-the-answer-to-feeding-the-world-and-combatting-climate-change/">first agrivoltaics conference anywhere in North America at the Ivey Business School</a>. </p>
<p>The trade group made up of farmers and solar companies called <a href="https://agrivoltaicscanada.ca/">Agrivoltaics Canada</a> has formed because agrivoltaic farming can help meet Canada’s food and energy needs all the while getting rid of our fossil fuel reliance and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/how-canadians-can-cut-carbon-footprints-1.6202194">greenhouse gas emissions</a> (and the associated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.025">emissions liabilities</a>). </p>
<p>Agrivoltaics will allow Alberta’s farmers to keep farming, make more money, drop energy costs, and help protect the environment for all of our children. To take advantage of all the profit that agrivoltaics represents for the province, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en16010053">our team completed a study</a> that showed the changes to Alberta’s regulations would actually need to be relatively modest.</p>
<p>The simple trick is to install solar systems that enable conventional farming, so farmers do not need to change anything. By spacing solar rows out far enough that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/designs7020034">combines/tractors can drive between them using vertical racks or tracker systems</a>, agrivoltaics are out of the way when the farmer needs to farm. We did a study that looked specifically at Alberta’s agrivoltaic potential, which was second only to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/biomass3020012">Saskatchewan</a> in Canada. </p>
<h2>Moving forward together</h2>
<p>Agrivoltaics really has broad appeal. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10121885">Farmers love it as it increases yields and provides steady incomes</a> and so do <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102023">solar developers</a> and environmentalists. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44173-022-00007-x">Even most Americans support solar development when agrivoltaics protects farm jobs</a>. It is thus not surprising that <a href="https://www.precedenceresearch.com/press-release/agrivoltaics-market">agrivoltaics is exploding on the world market.</a></p>
<p>Eighty-nine per cent of Alberta’s electricity came from fossil fuels, yet we published an article this year that showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">that agrivoltaics on just one per cent of the current agricultural land would eliminate the carbon emissions entirely</a>. Less than one per cent of Alberta’s farm land dedicated to agrivoltaics, cuts all harmful emissions from Alberta’s electricity sector while making more food. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-farmland-inequality-in-the-prairies-poses-problems-for-all-canadians-196777">Growing farmland inequality in the Prairies poses problems for all Canadians</a>
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<p>This is a win-win for the farmers, and consumers alike. As Alberta’s Conservatives are now able to lift the renewable energy ban knowing that the environment and the food system will be protected, they should ensure that large-scale solar in the province is encouraged to be agrivoltaic. Then all of us, regardless of party, can enjoy the conserved beauty of nature, lower-cost electricity and more food produced per acre. Whether or not this will result in lower costs at the grocery store checkout is a question yet to be answered — but we can hope.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received funding for research from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). In addition, his past and present consulting work and research is funded by the United Nations, the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, many non-profits and for-profit companies in the energy and solar photovoltaic fields. He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada. He does not directly work for any solar manufacturer and has no direct conflicts of interests. </span></em></p>Using agricultural land for both solar and food production presents huge opportunities for Canadian farmers, especially in Alberta.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126592023-09-04T13:36:18Z2023-09-04T13:36:18ZClimate change will affect hydropower – African countries must be prepared<p>Hydropower provides clean electricity to millions in Africa. It’s <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Jan/IRENA_Market_Africa_2022_Summary.pdf">the largest</a> source of renewable energy on the continent and accounts for <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/resources/1/uploads/content/15%20energy%20future%20COL.png">nearly one quarter</a> of total electricity generation in sub-Saharan Africa. Some countries, however, have a much heavier reliance on it than others. For instance, hydropower accounts for at least <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">80%</a> of electricity generation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia. </p>
<p>The continent has a lot more hydropower potential too. With relatively abundant water resources, sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-017-0006-y">is estimated</a> to have 1.4 petawatt hours a year of untapped, low cost potential. To put this into perspective, 1 PWh of energy could power about half a billion households for one year, assuming each household consumes an average of about 5.5 kWh per day.</p>
<p>However, there are political and environmental concerns that planners must consider if they want to expand hydropower. The tensions between <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-dam-dispute-five-key-reads-about-how-it-started-and-how-it-could-end-187644">Ethiopia and downstream countries</a> in the Nile River basin, following the construction of the colossal Grand Renaissance Dam, are emblematic of this.</p>
<p>As a researcher who studies the linkages between energy systems and climate change, I’ve written a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619317998">paper</a> that highlights why using or increasing dependency on hydropower involves climate-related risks. </p>
<p>The global and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/">regional climate is getting more extreme</a>. Events such as droughts and floods are becoming <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/warming-makes-droughts-extreme-wet-events-more-frequent-intense/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CGlobal%20warming%20is%20going%20to,their%20impacts%2C%20and%20adapting.%E2%80%9D">more frequent</a>. Worryingly, energy planning and management is not keeping pace with such changes <a href="https://powerafrica.medium.com/the-missing-link-understanding-power-transmission-financing-d33ca4846fbe">in most African countries</a>.</p>
<h2>Climate change threat to hydropower</h2>
<p>Hydroelectricity is generated by harnessing the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/kinetic-energy">kinetic energy</a> of water. This water may come from rivers or water that’s been stored in natural or artificial basins. Water flows through turbines which spin. The kinetic energy of the moving water is converted into <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/mechanical-energy">mechanical energy</a> and eventually into electrical energy.</p>
<p>A dam’s power output is, therefore, very sensitive to extreme changes in river and water availability. It’s also sensitive to permanent changes in the weather from when it was constructed.</p>
<p>I carried out an extensive <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619317998">review</a> of existing studies on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in different areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This included its impact on output, reliability and future hydropower prospects. </p>
<p>I found that the impact on hydropower output varies across regions. Countries in east Africa <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">could benefit from a wetter climate</a> in terms of hydropower output. On the other hand, there are serious concerns that countries in southern Africa and western Africa will face a <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa#:%7E:text=The%20western%20part%20of%20Southern,will%20have%20implications%20for%20precipitation.">drier climate</a>. This would bring negative impacts. Drops in water levels mean turbines will operate at lower rates and therefore produce less electricity. Central Africa would be the least affected sub-region in terms of precipitation change and drought incidence.</p>
<p>The expected changes in precipitation levels and patterns are uncertain, however. Different climate models and scenarios offer a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x">mixed picture of how the future might unfold</a>, particularly over central and southwestern Africa. Still, there is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf">consensus</a> that extreme hydrological events will increase throughout the continent with climate change. This will make power systems less reliable, unless there’s proper planning in place. </p>
<p>Several countries are more at risk than others because they depend largely, or entirely, on hydropower generation and have few back-up options available. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique and Sierra Leone. Some might even increase their dependency on hydropower. </p>
<p>Only some countries have made progress in diversifying their energy mix. Kenya, for instance, has developed and continues to plan for significant <a href="https://rapidtransition.org/stories/doing-development-differently-how-kenya-is-rapidly-emerging-as-africas-renewable-energy-superpower/">alternative renewable capacity</a>.</p>
<h2>Planning and management of power supply</h2>
<p>Several planning and management actions are needed to prepare for the effects of climate change on hydropower. This will ensure that citizens in sub-Saharan Africa benefit from a more reliable power supply.</p>
<p>First, hydropower-dependent countries need to accelerate their efforts to diversify their power mix. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf5848">A new study</a> demonstrated that African countries should increase investments in other renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. The study finds that in many areas, such as in the Zambezi and Niger river basins, renewables are becoming cost competitive or even cheaper than hydropower. The objective of investing in renewable sources of electricity is in line with the <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview">African Union’s Agenda 2063</a>. </p>
<p>Second, countries must address inadequate power transmission infrastructure. This contributes to the lack of resilience. Countries could benefit from transboundary power trading opportunities <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0539-0">among different</a> sources of renewable energy. For instance dry spells, leading to reduced river streamflow, might coincide with high solar PV outputs in neighbouring countries, or vice versa. This will require both adequate generation and transmission infrastructure in different countries. It’ll also need a high level of coordination among different power producers and countries.</p>
<p>Finally, it’s essential to include a nexus approach in power system planning. For example, when planning new hydropower projects, policymakers must assess the future need for water in farming and cities. They should also assess the potential risks of multiple sectors needing water simultaneously.</p>
<p>Overall, power system planners must work with a robust framework that accounts for the inter-dependencies between hydropower, water availability and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Different actions can increase the resilience of hydropower infrastructure and ensure a reliable and sustainable power supply.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africas-energy-sector-will-need-to-transform-radically-these-are-the-five-biggest-challenges-201791">Africa's energy sector will need to transform radically - these are the five biggest challenges</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giacomo Falchetta receives funding from the European Union H2020 project Long-Term Joint EU-AU Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy.</span></em></p>There’s a consensus that extreme hydrological events will increase throughout the continent. This will lead to growing issues with power system reliability.Giacomo Falchetta, Postdoctoral Research Scholar in Energy, Climate and Environment, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2110742023-08-09T16:00:00Z2023-08-09T16:00:00ZBats are avoiding solar farms and scientists aren’t sure why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541916/original/file-20230809-27-djlg20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=161%2C201%2C3932%2C2751&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The common pipistrelle.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flying-pipistrelle-bat-pipistrellus-action-shot-1407591011">Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As our planet continues to warm, the need for renewable energy is becoming increasingly urgent. Almost half of the UK’s electricity now comes from renewable sources. And solar <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1165986/Energy_Trends_June_2023.pdf">accounts for one-fifth</a> of the energy capacity installed since 2019.</p>
<p>Solar farms are now a striking feature of the British landscape. But despite their growth, we’re still largely in the dark about how solar farms impact biodiversity. </p>
<p>This was the focus of a <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.14474">recent study</a> that I co-authored alongside colleagues from the University of Bristol. We found that bat activity is reduced at solar farms compared to neighbouring sites without solar panels. </p>
<p>This discovery is concerning. Bats are top predators of nighttime insects and are sensitive to changes in their habitats, so they are important indicators of ecosystem health. Bats also <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1505413112">provide valuable services</a> such as suppressing populations of insect pests. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, our results should not hinder the transition to renewable energy. Instead, they should help to craft strategies that not only encourage bat activity but also support the necessary expansion of clean energy sources.</p>
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<img alt="An aerial shot of a solar farm in south Wales." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Solar farms are now a striking feature of the British landscape.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-drone-view-solar-panels-energy-1234126882">steved_np3/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Reduced activity</h2>
<p>We measured bat activity by recording their ultrasonic echolocation calls on bat detectors. Many bat species have distinctive echolocation calls, so we could identify call sequences for each species in many cases. Some species show similar calls, so we lumped them together in species groups. </p>
<p>We placed bat detectors in a solar farm field and a similar neighbouring field without solar panels (called the control site). The fields were matched in size, land use and boundary features (such as having similar hedges) as far as possible. The only major difference was whether they contained solar panels. </p>
<p>We monitored 19 pairs of these sites, each for a week, observing bat activity within the fields’ centre and along their boundaries. Field boundaries are used by bats for navigation and feeding. </p>
<p>Six of the eight bat species or groups studied were less active in the fields with solar panels compared to the fields without them. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/common-pipistrelle">Common pipistrelles</a>, which made up almost half of all bat activity, showed a decrease of 40% at the edges of solar panel fields and 86% in their centre. Other bat species or groups like <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/animals/mammals/soprano-pipistrelle-bat/">soprano pipistrelles</a>, <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/animals/mammals/noctule-bat/">noctules</a>, <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/animals/mammals/serotine-bat/">serotines</a>, <a href="https://www.northumberlandbats.org.uk/home/bat-info/northumbrian-bats/myotis-bats/">myotis bats</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/long-eared-bat">long-eared bats</a> also saw their activity drop. </p>
<p>Total bat activity was almost halved at the boundaries of solar panel fields compared to that of control sites. And at the centre of solar panel fields, bat activity dropped by two-thirds. </p>
<h2>Why are bats avoiding solar farms?</h2>
<p>Conflict between clean energy production and biodiversity isn’t just limited to solar farms; it’s an issue at wind farms too. Large numbers of bats are killed by colliding with the blades of wind turbines. In 2012, for example, one academic estimated that around <a href="https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wsb.260">888,000 bats may have been killed</a> at wind energy facilities in the United States.</p>
<p>The way solar farms affect bats is probably more indirect than this. Solar panels could, in theory, inadvertently reduce the abundance of insects by lowering the availability of the plants they feed on. We’re currently investigating whether there’s a difference in insect numbers at the solar farm sites compared to the control sites. </p>
<p>Solar panels may also reflect a bats’ echolocation calls, making insect detection more difficult. Reduced feeding success around the panels may result in fewer bats using the surrounding hedgerows for commuting, potentially explaining our findings. </p>
<p>However, bats <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aam7817">are also known</a> to collide with smooth vertical flat surfaces because they reflect echolocation calls away from bats and hence appear as empty space. Research has also found that bats sometimes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1110">attempt to drink from horizontal smooth surfaces</a> because they interpret the perpendicular echoes as coming from still water. But, given the sloped orientation of solar panels, these potential direct effects may not be of primary concern.</p>
<h2>Improving habitats</h2>
<p>An important lesson from the development of wind energy is that win-win solutions exist. Ultrasonic acoustic deterrents can <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065794">keep bats away</a> from wind turbines, while slightly reducing the wind speed that turbines become operational at (known as “cut-in speeds”) <a href="https://www.conservationevidence.com/actions/1960">has reduced bat fatality rates</a> with minimal losses to energy production. <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/03/f20/Operational-Mitigation-Synthesis-FINAL-REPORT-UPDATED.pdf">Research</a> suggests that increasing turbine cut-in speeds by 1.5 metres per second can reduce bat fatalities by at least 50%, with an annual loss to power output below 1%.</p>
<p>A slightly different approach could be applied to solar farms. Improving habitats by planting native trees along the boundaries of solar farm fields could potentially increase the availability of insects for bats to feed on. </p>
<p>Research that I have co-authored in recent years supports this theory. We found that the presence of landscape features such as <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13412">tall hedgerows</a> and even <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320722000295">isolated trees</a> on farmland has a positive effect on bat activity.</p>
<p>Carefully selecting solar sites is also important. Prior to construction, conducting environmental impact assessments could indicate the value of proposed sites to bat populations. </p>
<p>More radically, rethinking the siting of these sites so that most are placed on buildings or in areas that are rarely visited by bats, could limit their impact on bat populations. </p>
<p>Solar power is the <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables/solar-pv">fastest-growing source</a> of renewable energy worldwide. Its capacity is projected to overtake natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. Ensuring that its ecological footprint remains minimal is now particularly important. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research has found that bats avoid solar farms – but the findings should not hinder the transition to renewable energy.Gareth Jones, Professor of Biological Sciences, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093972023-07-25T02:03:19Z2023-07-25T02:03:19ZAustralia is touted as a future clean energy ‘superpower’ – but research suggests other nations will outperform us<p>Addressing climate change means enduring some economic pain in the early part of this century to avoid worse outcomes in the long run. But recently the narrative has shifted from pain to opportunity. </p>
<p>In Australia, there’s much talk of this nation emerging from the net-zero transition as a clean energy <a href="https://www.austrade.gov.au/benchmark-report/renewable-energy-superpower#:%7E:text=The%20Australian%20Government%20aims%20to,largest%20producer%20of%20solar%20energy.">superpower</a>.</p>
<p>But many other countries are also racing to expand their renewable energy production. This got us wondering: Australia’s renewable resource potential is vast, but will we actually become the world’s biggest energy exporter? </p>
<p><a href="https://modsim2023.exordo.com/files/papers/125/final_draft/graham125.pdf">Analysis by CSIRO</a> examined this question. We found Australia was near the top of the pack on factors such as the quality of renewable resources. But we are not the world’s best, and others are nipping at our heels. There’s still much work to be done. </p>
<h2>A superpower-in-waiting</h2>
<p>Australia has always been rich in energy. We export far more in the form of gas and coal than we use domestically. And a lot of energy used in Australia goes towards producing goods for export such as minerals and metals.</p>
<p>The threat of climate change means the world must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. That requires less burning of Australia’s abundant fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Economic modelling produced by federal treasury in <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/Australias_Low_Pollution_Future_Summary.pdf">2008</a> and <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/programs-initiatives-consumers-community/modelling-a-carbon-price">2011</a> revealed a gloomy outlook. It showed key industrial sectors such as coal mining, aluminium and steel would all be significantly smaller in a world that takes action to address climate change.</p>
<p>But a reprieve was in sight. Australia has vast amounts of the cheapest climate change solution available: renewable electricity. And between 2010 and 2020, the cost of electricity generated from wind and solar globally <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020">fell</a> by 56% and 85%, respectively. </p>
<p>This turned the issue of addressing climate change from challenge to opportunity. Australia is now touted as a future clean energy superpower. There’s even talk of exporting renewable energy – either in the form of “<a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen">green</a>” hydrogen, or directly via undersea electricity transmission cables. </p>
<p>Much of the opportunity will come from supplying renewable energy to industry. That’s because electricity is the cheapest way to strip emissions from this polluting part of the economy.</p>
<p>And the opportunity goes deeper. The global transition to low-emissions technology entails an exponential increase in wind and solar plants, energy storage, and the transmission infrastructure to get the energy where it’s needed. Manufacturing this technology requires the production of minerals such as <a href="https://dmp.wa.gov.au/Investors/Alumina-1479.aspx">aluminium</a> and <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/minerals/mineral-resources-and-advice/australian-resource-reviews/lithium">lithium</a>, of which Australia has large reserves. </p>
<p>So demand for Australia’s minerals and metals is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions">expected to grow</a>. And these producers will have access to cheap home-grown renewable electricity to power their operations, making them more internationally competitive.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dutton-wants-australia-to-join-the-nuclear-renaissance-but-this-dream-has-failed-before-209584">Dutton wants Australia to join the "nuclear renaissance" – but this dream has failed before</a>
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<h2>But how competitive are we?</h2>
<p>So far, so good. But many countries are developing a renewable energy capacity. Those that can produce renewable energy at least cost will come out on top. That comes down to three factors:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>the quality of renewable resources, for example, how windy or sunny a place is</p></li>
<li><p>the cost of installation (which is determined by labour costs and government regulation) </p></li>
<li><p>the existence of a low-cost backup energy supply, such as gas or hydro, for when renewables production is low.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>So how does Australia fare? To find out, we studied 194 locations around the world in 13 regions. We determined where renewable energy could be produced most cheaply and how costs varied across the land mass.</p>
<p>Based on the lowest cost site in each region, we estimate the three most competitive global regions for producing renewable energy will be India, Western Europe and China. This applies both in 2030 and 2050.</p>
<p>Australia is ranked a close fourth in 2030. But this rank could slip one place in 2050, if Africa can make better use of its good solar sites by then. </p>
<p>So why did three regions rank above Australia? It partly reflects their lower labour costs and the quality of renewable resources. It’s also due to lower costs for companies installing renewable energy technologies. (Cheaper installation can also be the result of lower labour costs or, as in the case of Western Europe, a more competitive installation sector.) </p>
<p>We don’t know why other countries with comparable labour costs can install technologies more cheaply. But it may reflect economies of scale, or more companies competing for work.</p>
<p>We also calculated the average of costs across the land mass of each region. On that measure, Australia’s ranking improves to third place in both 2030 and 2050.</p>
<p>This indicates the deep quality of Australia’s renewable resources: it’s a windy and sunny place, which helps offset Australia’s relatively higher installation costs. </p>
<p>It’s worth noting, however, that other top-ranked countries face risks that Australia does not. In China and India, for example, labour costs are likely to rise faster as their economies develop. </p>
<p>In addition, these nations have much larger populations and so may need to reserve some renewable resources to meet domestic energy needs.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-earth-might-hold-huge-stores-of-natural-hydrogen-and-prospectors-are-already-scouring-south-australia-for-it-204904">The earth might hold huge stores of natural hydrogen – and prospectors are already scouring South Australia for it</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people in India work at solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538686/original/file-20230721-25-b1kl18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India is the most competitive region for renewable energy generation in 2050, according to the analysis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ajit Solanki/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Staying competitive</h2>
<p>Australia’s potential to produce renewable energy at globally competitive prices promises to negate the economic pain of the energy transition. But we can’t rest on our laurels. Other nations have competitive advantages that outweigh our bounty of wind and sun.</p>
<p>So how does Australia stay at the top of the global pack? The main priority is to make our installation sector more competitive. This may develop naturally as the scale of clean energy deployment grows, attracting more companies to the sector.</p>
<p>We must also identify the necessary workforce skills and produce sufficient labour and training, to ensure Australia keeps pace with the global transition.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-facing-a-450-000-tonne-mountain-of-used-solar-panels-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-a-valuable-asset-204792">Australia is facing a 450,000-tonne mountain of used solar panels. Here's how to turn it into a valuable asset</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Graham has been an energy economist for 27 years and during that time has received funding from the Commonwealth government, nearly every state government and many major mining, finance, generation, distribution, transmission, fuel and technology companies as well as non-profit organisations. </span></em></p>Australia has a lot of wind and sun, but will we actually become a world leader in renewable energy generation?Paul Graham, Chief economist, CSIRO energy, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085612023-07-05T12:24:00Z2023-07-05T12:24:00Z‘Global China’ is a big part of Latin America’s renewable energy boom, but homegrown industries and ‘frugal innovation’ are key<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534468/original/file-20230627-30373-rvj0lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C51%2C8549%2C5691&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lithium, essential for EV batteries, could be South America's white gold.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChileLithium/64ba9a1bc61144b6ae28b5668dd6d07a/photo">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The story of renewable energy’s rapid rise in Latin America often focuses on Chinese influence, and for good reason. China’s government, banks and companies have propelled the continent’s energy transition, with about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Z58qGx2rP4">90% of all wind and solar technologies</a> installed there produced by Chinese companies. China’s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/organizations/state-grid-corporation-of-china">State Grid</a> now controls <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/its-electric-chinas-power-play-latin-america">over half of Chile’s</a> regulated energy distribution, enough to raise concerns in the Chilean government. </p>
<p>China has also become a major investor in Latin America’s critical minerals sector, a treasure trove of <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/23/1/20/111308/The-Security-Sustainability-Nexus-Lithium">lithium</a>, <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/04/11/how-indonesia-used-chinese-industrial-investments-to-turn-nickel-into-new-gold-pub-89500">nickel</a>, <a href="https://eba.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DDB_2016_9_Malm_webb.pdf">cobalt</a> and <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501714597/rare-earth-frontiers/#bookTabs=1">rare earth elements</a> that are crucial for developing electric vehicles, wind turbines and defense technologies.</p>
<p>In 2018, the Chinese company Tianqi Lithium purchased a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions">23% share</a> in one of Chile’s largest lithium producers, Sociedad Química y Minera. More recently, in 2022, Ganfeng Lithium bought a major evaporative lithium project in Argentina for <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/04/20/china-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-economic-bulletin-2023-edition/">US$962 million</a>. In April 2023, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed around 20 agreements to <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-the-lula-xi-partnership-means-for-the-world/">strengthen their countries’ already close relationship</a>, including in the areas of trade, climate change and the energy transition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Juan Carlos Jobet and Carolina Schmidt, wearing matching fleece jackets, walk on either side Xie Zhenhua, who is wearing in a suit and tie, along a row of solar panels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s interest in South America’s energy resources has been growing for years. In 2019, China’s special representative for climate change, Xie Zhenhua, met with Chile’s then-ministers of energy and environment, Juan Carlos Jobet and Carolina Schmidt, in Chile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chilean-energy-minister-juan-carlos-jobet-chinas-special-news-photo/1162986090?adppopup=true">Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China’s growing influence over global clean energy supply chains and its leverage over countries’ energy systems have <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri">raised international concerns</a>. But the relationship between China and Latin America is also increasingly complicated as Latin American countries try to secure their resources and their own clean energy futures.</p>
<p>Alongside international investments, Latin American countries are fostering energy innovation cultures that are homegrown, dynamic, creative, often grassroots and frequently overlooked. These range from sophisticated innovations with high-tech materials to a phenomenon known as “frugal innovation.” </p>
<h2>Chile looks to the future</h2>
<p>Chile is an example of how Latin America is embracing renewable energy while trying to plan a more self-reliant future.</p>
<p>New geothermal, solar and <a href="https://www.evwind.es/2023/02/13/repsol-and-ibereolica-renovables-start-producing-electricity-at-the-atacama-wind-farm-chile/90178">wind power</a> projects – some built with Chinese backing, <a href="https://www.eulaif.eu/en/news/first-concentrated-solar-power-plant-latin-america-built-support-eu-laif-kfw-and-corfo">but not all</a> – have pushed Chile far past its 2025 renewable energy goal. <a href="https://www.iea.org/countries/chile">About one-third</a> of the country is now powered by clean energy.</p>
<p>But the big prize, and a large part of China’s interest, lies buried in Chile’s Atacama Desert, home to the world’s <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/all-eyes-chile-amid-global-scramble-lithium">largest lithium reserves</a>. Lithium, a silvery-white metal, is essential for producing lithium ion batteries that power most electric vehicles and utility-scale energy storage. Countries around the world have been scrambling to secure lithium sources, and the Chilean government is determined to keep control over its reserves, currently about <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-lithium.pdf">one-half of the planet’s known supply</a> .</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker carries a large hose along the edge of a turquoise lithium pond. The worker is wearing a facemask against the dust and reflective gear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brine slowly turns into lithium at the Albemarle lithium mine in Chile’s Atacama Desert.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChileLithium/7ec3d5fa4a5c4a98a60138eda15146d9/photo">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In April 2023, Chile’s president announced a <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/chiles-national-lithium-strategy-new-beginning">national lithium strategy</a> to ensure that the state holds partial ownership of some future lithium developments. The move, which has yet to be approved, has <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/26/chile-lithium-batteries-mining-environment-climate-energy-transition/">drawn complaints</a> that it could slow production. </p>
<p>However, the government aims to <a href="https://www.investchile.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/brochure-litio-.pdf">increase profits from lithium production</a> while strengthening environmental safeguards and sharing more wealth with the country’s citizens, including local communities impacted by lithium projects. Latin America has seen its resources <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/10/05/NA100517-Missed-Opportunities-The-Economic-History-of-Latin-America">sold out from under it</a> before, and Chile doesn’t intend to lose out on its natural value this time.</p>
<h2>Learning from foreign investors</h2>
<p>Developing its own renewable energy industry has been a priority in Chile for well over a decade, but it’s been a rough road at times.</p>
<p>In 2009, the government began establishing national and international centers of excellence – <a href="https://anid.cl/centros-e-investigacion-asociativa/centros-de-excelencia-internacional/">Centros de Excelencia Internacional</a> – for research in strategic fields such as solar energy, geothermal energy and climate resilience. It invited and co-financed foreign research institutes, such as Europe’s influential <a href="https://www.fraunhofer.de/en.html">Fraunhofer institute</a> and France’s <a href="https://www.engie.com/en/innovation-transition-energetique/centres-de-recherche/crigen">ENGIELab</a>, to establish branches in Chile and conduct applied research. The latest is a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dev/Corfo-Session_7_Chilean-Clean_Technologies_Institute.pdf">center for the production of lithium using solar energy</a>.</p>
<p>The government expected that the centers would work with local businesses and research centers, transferring knowledge to feed a local innovation ecosystem. However, reality hasn’t yet matched the expectations. The foreign institutions brought their own trained personnel. And except for the recently established institute for lithium, officials tell us that low financing has been a major problem.</p>
<h2>Chile’s startup incubator and frugal innovation</h2>
<p>While big projects get the headlines, more is going on under the radar.</p>
<p>Chile is home to one of the largest public incubators and seed accelerators in Latin America, <a href="https://startupchile.org/">StartUp Chile</a>. It has helped several local startups that offer important innovations in food, energy, social media, biotech and other sectors.</p>
<p>Often in South America, this kind of innovation is born and developed in a resource-scarce context and under technological, financial and material constraints. This “frugal innovation” emphasizes sustainability with substantially lower costs.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wYcRSGDB_d4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Reborn Electric Motors converts old fossil fuel buses into fully electric versions. They are used in urban areas and also by the mining industry.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the independent Chilean startup <a href="https://rebornelectric.cl/">Reborn Electric Motors</a> has developed a business converting old diesel bus fleets into fully electric buses. Reborn was founded in 2016 when the national electromobility market in Chile was in its early stages, before China’s BYD ramped up electric bus use in local cities. </p>
<p>Reborn’s retrofitted buses are both technologically advanced and significantly cheaper than their Chinese counterparts. While BYD’s new electric bus costs roughly US$320,000, a retrofitted equivalent from Reborn costs roughly half, around $170,000. The company has also secured funding to develop a prototype for <a href="https://rebornelectric.cl/hydra-consortium-of-which-reborn-electric-motors-is-a-part-begins-testing-of-the-green-hydrogen-prototype-for-mining-vehicles/">running mining vehicles on green hydrogen</a>.</p>
<p>Bolivia’s “tiny supercheap EV” developed by homegrown startup <a href="https://tuquantum.com/">Industrias Quantum Motors</a> is another example of frugal innovation in the electric vehicles space. The startup aspires to bring electric mobility widely to the Latin American population. It offers the tiniest EV car possible, one that can be plugged into a standard wall socket. The car costs around $6,000 and has a range of approximately 34 miles (55 kilometers) per charge.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tiny car big enough for one person, with no passenger seats, drives down a street of brick buildings. Quantum Motors, its maker, is based in Bolivia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Quantum Motors, a startup in Bolivia, launched its affordable mini-vehicles in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BoliviaElectricCars/27f7b88da1d147408aca8fca231b4599/photo">AP Photo/Juan Karita</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.phineal.com/en/home_en/">Phineal</a> is another promising Chilean company that offers clean energy solutions, focusing on solar energy projects. Its projects include solar systems installation, electromobility technology and technology using blockchain to improve renewable energy management in Latin America. Many of these are highly sophisticated and technologically advanced projects that have found markets overseas, including in Germany.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead to green hydrogen</h2>
<p>Chile is also diving into another cutting-edge area of clean energy. Using its abundant solar and wind power to <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/country-case-chile-bet-on-green-hydrogen-Bartlett">produce green hydrogen</a> for export as a fossil fuel replacement has become a government priority.</p>
<p>The government is developing a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/how-chile-is-becoming-a-leader-in-renewable-energy/">public-private partnership</a> of an unprecedented scale in Chile for hydrogen production and has committed to cover 30% of an expected <a href="https://energia.gob.cl/sites/default/files/national_green_hydrogen_strategy_-_chile.pdf">$193 million public and private investment</a>, funded in part by its lithium and copper production. Some questions surround the partnership, including Chile’s lack of experience administering such a large project and concerns about the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/country-case-chile-bet-on-green-hydrogen-Bartlett">environmental impact</a>. The government claims Chile’s green energy production could <a href="https://energia.gob.cl/sites/default/files/national_green_hydrogen_strategy_-_chile.pdf">eventually rival its mining industry</a>.</p>
<p>With plentiful hydropower and sunshine, Latin America already meets a <a href="https://www.mapfreglobalrisks.com/gerencia-riesgos-seguros/articulos/energias-renovables-tendencias-en-latinoamerica/">quarter of its energy demand</a> with renewables – nearly twice the global average. Chile and its neighbors envision those numbers only rising.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zdenka Myslikova is affiliated with the Climate Policy Lab in The Fletcher School at Tufts University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathaniel Dolton-Thornton is affiliated with the Climate Policy Lab in The Fletcher School at Tufts University.</span></em></p>China is a major investor in Latin America’s renewable energy and critical minerals like lithium, but countries like Chile are also taking steps to secure their own clean energy future.Zdenka Myslikova, Postdoctoral Scholar in Clean Energy Innovation, Tufts UniversityNathaniel Dolton-Thornton, Assistant Researcher in Climate Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042812023-06-04T20:04:59Z2023-06-04T20:04:59ZUsing electric water heaters to store renewable energy could do the work of 2 million home batteries – and save us billions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523358/original/file-20230428-28-izz5as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s energy transition is well under way. Some <a href="https://iea-pvps.org/snapshot-reports/snapshot-2022/">3 million households have rooftop solar</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/first-past-the-post-evs-race-to-front-in-sales-of-medium-sized-cars-20230420-p5d1yj.html">sales of medium-sized electric cars</a> are surging. But as we work towards fully electric households powered by renewable energy, have we overlooked a key enabling technology, the humble electric water heater?</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="a smart electric water heater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529729/original/file-20230602-17-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">By storing solar energy as hot water, a smart electric heater can effectively act as a household battery.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>About <a href="https://www.energynetworks.com.au/resources/fact-sheets/reliable-and-clean-gas-for-australian-homes-2/">half of Australian households</a> use electric water heaters, while the rest use gas. So what’s so great about electric water heaters? </p>
<p>Electric water heaters offer a cheap way to store large amounts of energy, in the form of hot water. A heater with a 300-litre tank can store about as much energy as a second-generation Tesla Powerwall – at a fraction of the cost. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/domestic-hot-water-and-flexibility">Our research</a> at the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures has found Australians could use household electric water heaters to store as much energy as over 2 million home batteries of that kind. This could eventually save over A$6 billion a year on our energy bills while getting us closer to net-zero carbon emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/Domestic%20Hot%20Water%20and%20Flexibility.pdf">Our report</a>, published today and funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), recommends that, to halve emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, we urgently need policies to rapidly replace gas water heaters with “smart” electric water heaters. Smart heaters can be switched on and off in response to changes in electricity supply and demand across the grid. </p>
<p>This means these heaters can soak up excess “off-peak” renewable energy, particularly from solar, and so help us solve two key problems at once. They can help reduce and eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. And they can make our electricity grid more stable by providing flexible demand that helps balance out the fluctuating supply from renewable sources.</p>
<h2>Cutting emissions</h2>
<p>There are three main types of electric water heater. A conventional “resistance” heater uses electricity to heat water directly. Solar water heaters use sunlight and electricity, but have become less popular as newer “heat pump” units emerged. These collect heat from the air and “pump” it into water. A heat pump uses three to four times less electricity than a resistance heater. </p>
<p>Back in 2010, a resistance electric water heater typically produced around four times more emissions than its gas equivalent. Heat pump emissions were about the same as for gas. That’s because electric water heaters <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/households/hot-water-systems">use a lot of electricity</a>, and most of it came from burning coal. </p>
<p>As we generate more electricity from renewables, this picture is changing dramatically. Australia’s energy market operator, AEMO, publishes regularly updated pathways to a clean-energy future. In the most likely outcome, the “<a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">step-change scenario</a>”, gas will become the most greenhouse-intensive water-heating option by 2030. </p>
<p>By 2040, once the transition to a renewable electricity system is largely complete, emissions from resistance and heat pump water heaters will be much lower than for their gas counterparts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing projected emissions from 3 kinds of water heaters: electric resistance, heat pump and gas" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529733/original/file-20230602-25-jsaz8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The projected emissions intensity of resistance and heat pump water heaters in NSW will soon be much lower than for their gas counterparts. Results for Queensland, Victoria and the ACT are similar to those for NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Water heaters can last 15 years or more. So the stock of heaters in our homes for the next two decades depends on what we install today. Replacing gas heaters with electric heaters should therefore be an immediate priority in our energy transition. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2023-05/Domestic%20Hot%20Water%20and%20Flexibility.pdf">Our work</a> explored a range of scenarios, each with a different mix of water-heating technologies. One was a business-as-usual baseline where gas water heaters remain prevalent. In alternative scenarios gas is phased out over the next 10–20 years. </p>
<p>We found that replacing gas with electric water heating would not only help us get to net-zero emissions sooner, it would save us money. </p>
<p>Gas is expensive and unlikely to get much cheaper. Abundant renewables offer an excess of cheap electricity that water heaters can help soak up. Embracing this opportunity could save over $6 billion a year on our energy bills by 2040.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphs comparing stock of different water heater technologies across the NEM from 1990 to 2040" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529735/original/file-20230602-23-u38b97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In our modelling of the National Electricity Market, business-as-usual policy (left) locks in costly and high-emissions gas units for decades to come. In our rapid electrification scenario (right), electric water heaters rapidly replace gas units.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Boosting grid stability</h2>
<p>Solar and wind are now the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/renewables-cheapest-form-power">cheapest technologies we’ve ever had for generating electricity</a>. But to maintain a stable electricity system, we need to match demand with the fluctuating supply from renewable sources. Batteries offer a partial solution, but are still relatively costly. </p>
<p>Electric water heaters offer a much cheaper way to store large amounts of energy and provide the demand flexibility the grid needs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/domestic-hot-water-and-flexibility">Our research</a> found that, compared to the business-as-usual baseline, a scenario that emphasises demand flexibility using smart electric water heaters could provide an extra 30GWh of daily flexible demand capacity. That’s the equivalent of over 2 million home batteries across the National Electricity Market, which supplies electricity to eastern and southern Australia. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1361120769548320770"}"></div></p>
<h2>Back to the future for water heating</h2>
<p>Since the 1950s, “off-peak hot water” has seen Australian electricity providers turning household water heaters off during the day and on at night to better match demand and supply. In return, customers received heavily discounted prices. </p>
<p>In recent decades we’ve moved away from off-peak electric hot water, as incentives dwindled and more homes <a href="https://www.energynetworks.com.au/resources/fact-sheets/reliable-and-clean-gas-for-australian-homes-2/">connected to natural gas</a>.</p>
<p>As we electrify our hot water, which technology should we embrace: resistance or heat pump? The answer is both. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/domestic-hot-water-and-flexibility">Our research</a> explored the trade-off between highly flexible resistance water heaters versus highly efficient but less flexible heat pumps.</p>
<p>Heat pumps use less electricity and cost less to run. Where electricity prices are high or power flow is limited, using heat pumps makes sense. However, they have a higher upfront cost and are not suited to all homes. Many apartments, for example, lack access to suitable outdoor space. </p>
<p>And because they use less electricity, heat pumps offer less flexible demand. As renewables, particularly solar, increasingly power our grid, the ability of resistance electric heaters to soak up excess “off-peak” renewable energy is a big advantage.</p>
<p>With the right policies and market reforms, we will all benefit from a system that once again rewards customers with cheap off-peak electricity in exchange for network operators being able to switch our water heaters off and on as needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204281/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Roche works for the Institute for Sustainable Futures, which received funding for this work from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).</span></em></p>A heater with a 300-litre tank can store as much energy as a home battery at a fraction of the cost. Being able to store surplus solar energy at the right times helps grid stability and cuts emissions.David Roche, Research Director - Strategic Energy Collaborations, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2046602023-05-15T12:33:13Z2023-05-15T12:33:13ZHow corporations use greenwashing to convince you they are battling climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523328/original/file-20230427-660-vi0wh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5493%2C3171&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Consumers must do their homework before determining whether a company is actually green.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/greenwashing-of-the-coal-industry-conceptual-image-royalty-free-image/1386003375?phrase=greenwashing&adppopup=true">Victor de Schwanberg/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Many corporations claim their products are “green-friendly.” But how do you know if what they’re selling is truly eco-safe? SciLine interviewed <a href="https://seas.umich.edu/research/faculty/thomas-lyon">Thomas Lyon</a>, professor of sustainable science, technology and commerce at the University of Michigan, on how to buy environmentally sustainable products, whether carbon credits actually work and the prevalence of greenwashing.</em></p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/819562009" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Dr. Thomas Lyon discusses the impact of corporate sustainability initiatives.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Below are some highlights from the discussion. Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.</em></p>
<p><strong>What is greenwashing?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Thomas Lyon:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/10860266231168905">Greenwashing</a> is any communication that leads the listener to adopt an overly favorable impression of a company’s greenness.</p>
<p><strong>How can the consumer avoid falling for it?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Thomas Lyon:</strong> I still love the old concept of the <a href="https://www.ul.com/insights/sins-greenwashing">seven sins of greenwashing</a>. The first and most common is what’s called the sin of the hidden trade-off, where an organization tells you something good they do but neglects to tell you the bad things that go along with it. </p>
<p>For example, when you see an electric hand dryer in a public restroom, it may say on it: This dryer protects the environment. It saves trees from being used for paper. </p>
<p>But it neglects to tell you that, of course, it’s powered with electricity, and that electricity may have been generated from coal-fired power, which might <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/biodiversity/business/assets/pdf/case-studies/Case%20study%2016_ReCiPe%20Hand%20drying%20systems_final.pdf">actually be more damaging than using a tree</a>, which is a renewable resource. That’s the most common of the seven deadly sins. </p>
<p>Other ones include the sin of irrelevance. For example, telling people that “this ship has an onboard wastewater recycling plant,” when all ships that go to Alaska are required by law to have exactly that kind of equipment. It’s no reflection of the company’s quality. </p>
<p>The sin of fibbing is actually the least common. Companies don’t usually actually lie about things. After all, it’s <a href="https://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/businesspersons-beware-lying-is-a-crime/">against the law</a>.</p>
<p>One of the increasingly common forms of greenwashing … is a hidden trade-off between the company’s market activities and its political activities. </p>
<p>You may get a company that says: Look at this, we invested US$5 million in renewable energy last year. They may not tell you that they spent $100 billion drilling for oil in a sensitive location. And they may not tell you that they spent $50 million <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/03/25/oil-and-gas-giants-spend-millions-lobbying-to-block-climate-change-policies-infographic/?sh=7baf6f97c4fb">lobbying against climate legislation</a> that would have made a real difference. </p>
<p><strong>What are carbon credits (or offsets)?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Thomas Lyon:</strong> I think the easiest way to understand these may be to step back a little bit and think about <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/cap-and-trade-basics/#:">cap-and-trade systems</a> … under which the government will set a cap on the aggregate amount of, say, carbon emissions. And within that, each company gets a right to emit a certain amount of carbon. </p>
<p>But that company can then trade permits with other companies. Suppose the company finds it’s going to be really expensive for it to reduce its carbon emissions. But there’s some other company next door that could do it really cheaply. </p>
<p>The company with the expensive reductions could pay the other company to do the reductions for it, and it then buys one of the permits – or more than one permit – from the company that can do it cheaply. </p>
<p>That kind of trading system has been <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/26/carbon-markets-are-going-global">recommended by economists for decades</a>, because it lowers the overall cost of achieving a given level of emissions reduction. And that’s a clean, well-enforced, reliable system. </p>
<p>Now the place where things get confusing for people is that a lot of times the offsets are not coming from within a cap-and-trade system. Instead they’re coming from a voluntary offset that’s offered by some free-standing producer that’s not included in a cap. </p>
<p>Now it’s necessary to ask a whole series of additional questions. Perhaps the foremost among them is: Is this offset actually producing a reduction that was not going to happen anyway? </p>
<p>It may be that the company claims, “Oh, we’re saving this forest from being cut down.” But maybe the forest was in a protected region in a country where there was no chance it was going to be cut down anyway. So that offset is not what is called in the offset world “additional.” </p>
<p><strong>What should consumers make of companies that offer programs such as planting a tree for every widget they sell?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Thomas Lyon:</strong> Overall, it’s better that they’re trying to do something than just ignoring the issue. But this is where you, the consumer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenwashing-corporate-tree-planting-generates-goodwill-but-may-sometimes-harm-the-planet-103457">have to start doing your homework</a> … and look for a provider that has a strong reputation and that is making claims validated by external sources. </p>
<p><strong>Which rating schemes can people trust?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Thomas Lyon:</strong> There’s a cool little app that I like a lot. You can download it. It’s called <a href="https://www.ewg.org/apps/">EWG Healthy Living</a>. EWG stands for <a href="https://www.ewg.org/">Environmental Working Group</a>. It’s a group of scientists who get together and draw on science to assess which products are environmentally friendly, and which ones aren’t. And they have something like 150,000 products in their database. </p>
<p>You can scan the UPC code when you go to the store, and you just immediately get this information up on your phone that rates the quality of the company’s environmental claims and performance. That’s a really nice little way to verify things on the fly.</p>
<p><strong>Are there any examples of business practices that really do benefit the environment?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Thomas Lyon:</strong> Building is one big area. <a href="https://support.usgbc.org/hc/en-us/articles/4404406912403-What-is-LEED-certification-">LEED building standards</a> or <a href="https://www.energystar.gov/buildings/building_recognition/building_certification">Energy Star building standards</a> reduce environmental impact. They improve the quality of the indoor environment for employees. They actually <a href="https://nilskok.typepad.com/nils-kok/2020/05/green-building-has-a-strong-business-case.html">produce higher rents</a> because people are more willing to work in these kinds of buildings. </p>
<p>You can look at the whole movement toward renewable energy and companies that produce solar or wind energy. They’re doing something that really is good for the environment. </p>
<p>The move toward electric vehicles – that really will be good for the environment. It does raise trade-offs. There are going to be issues around certain <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/13/1085707854/how-a-handful-of-metals-could-determine-the-future-of-the-electric-car-industry">critical mineral inputs into producing batteries</a>, and we’ve got to figure out good ways to reuse batteries and then dispose of them at the end of their life. </p>
<p><em>Watch the <a href="https://www.sciline.org/tech/corporate-sustainability/">full interview</a> to hear more.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.sciline.org/">SciLine</a> is a free service based at the nonprofit American Association for the Advancement of Science that helps journalists include scientific evidence and experts in their news stories.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204660/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Lyon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Look for hidden trade-offs, political contributions and what businesses are not telling you.Tom Lyon, Professor of Sustainable Science, Technology and Commerce and Business Economics, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049152023-05-04T05:36:28Z2023-05-04T05:36:28ZI’m not an apologist for the Snowy 2.0 hydro scheme – but let’s not obsess over the delays and cost blowouts<p>The first power from the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project may not be delivered until 2028, it was revealed yesterday, triggering a fresh round of criticism over the controversial project.</p>
<p>The delay is undoubtedly inconvenient. But, despite <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/snowy-2-0-pumped-hydro-project-hit-with-new-delays-cost-blowouts-20230503-p5d55l.html">speculation</a>, the hold-up won’t noticeably slow the transition to renewable energy. The shift is driven by the compelling price advantage of solar and wind over coal and gas.</p>
<p>And in my view, we shouldn’t get too obsessed about exactly when Snowy 2.0 will be finished, or whether it costs more than first envisaged. In huge projects such as these, delays and cost blowouts are to be expected. And Snowy 2.0 offers us many lessons that will benefit subsequent pumped hydro projects.</p>
<p>I’m not an apologist for Snowy 2.0. I would have preferred it wasn’t built in a national park. But Australia’s renewable energy transformation will require a huge amount of energy storage – and the Snowy extension is an important part of the mix.</p>
<h2>A big deal for powering Australia</h2>
<p>Federal government-owned Snowy Hydro on Wednesday <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">said</a> Snowy 2.0 may not begin initial operation until the second half 2028 and may not be fully online until December 2029. It is also likely to suffer further cost blowouts beyond its current price tag of A$5.9 billion. </p>
<p>The project was originally costed at $2 billion and was expected to start operating in 2021.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/snowy-2-0-project-update/">statement</a>, Snowy Hydro attributed the latest delay to COVID-19, global supply chain disruption, technical complications and geological issues.</p>
<p>Snowy 2.0 is the biggest energy storage project under construction in Australia. Pumped hydro storage <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">involves</a> two small reservoirs spaced a few kilometres apart, one built 400-800 metres higher than the other, with tunnels connecting them. </p>
<p>On sunny and windy days, electricity is stored by pumping water up to the higher reservoir. Later, when energy is needed, the water is released downhill through the turbine to produce electricity. The same water goes up and down the hill for the life of the project.</p>
<p>The Albanese government has set a national target of <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11-28/Aust%20Govt%20CC%20Actions%20Update%20November%202022_1.pdf">82% renewable electricity</a> by 2030 – most from solar and wind. These are intermittent energy sources, meaning they sometimes produce more energy than we need, and sometimes less. Energy storage helps smooth bumps in supply.</p>
<p>Solar and wind energy generation in the national electricity market meets <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">about one-third of demand</a>, up from <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">1% in 2009</a> and <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">9% in 2017</a>. So at the moment, we don’t need much energy storage because existing coal, gas and hydroelectric power stations still help balance electricity demand.</p>
<p>But by 2028, solar and wind are expected to generate about 60% of electricity in the market. By then, many more coal plants <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise-177317">will have closed</a>, and we’ll need other ways to balance supply and demand. That’s where Snowy 2.0 and other projects come in.</p>
<h2>A suite of options needed</h2>
<p>So how do we make sure Australia’s electricity supplies remain reliable throughout the renewable energy transition? With a suite of technologies and projects.</p>
<p>The top priority is lots of new transmission infrastructure – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">mostly</a> high-voltage cables and associated towers, as well as transformers.</p>
<p>This infrastructure is needed to move power generated by new solar and wind projects in rural areas to the cities, and also between states. </p>
<p>Importantly, strong energy transmission between states hugely reduces the need for energy storage by smoothing out local weather. If it’s a wet, windless week in Victoria, electricity can be sent from New South Wales and South Australia. The following week, Victoria might return the favour.</p>
<p>Many other current and future options exist to balance out electricity supplies. They include:</p>
<ul>
<li>off-river pumped hydro</li>
<li>grid-scale batteries</li>
<li>hot water storage tanks in homes and factories</li>
<li>high temperature thermal storage in factories to displace gas furnaces</li>
<li>activities to reduce electricity demand at peak times (known as demand management)</li>
<li>legacy gas turbines operating only occasionally</li>
<li>electric vehicle batteries.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Snowy 2.0 delays mean other storage methods will take a stronger role in the interim.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Pumped hydro vs the alternatives</h2>
<p>Grid-scale batteries are useful for short-term energy storage – seconds, minutes and hours. </p>
<p>Several big battery projects are being deployed in Australia. This includes a project by German energy company RWE, which was <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/eight-hour-big-battery-trumps-pumped-hydro-in-nsw-long-duration-storage-tender/">just awarded</a> a major NSW government contract. It will generate 50 megawatts of power continuously for eight hours, and so has an energy storage capacity of 400 megawatt-hours. </p>
<p>But pumped hydro <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2021/AustralianElectricityOptionsPumpedHydro">excels at</a> overnight and longer energy storage. Globally, pumped hydro constitutes <a href="https://sandia.gov/ess-ssl/gesdb/public/projects.html">about 95%</a> of electricity storage.</p>
<p>Australia has about <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">5,500 potential pumped hydro sites</a>. Since we only need ten or 20 pumped hydro systems, we can afford to be very choosy. </p>
<p>Australia has three operating pumped hydro energy storage systems. Two are under construction, including Snowy 2.0, and a dozen others <a href="https://energycentral.com/c/cp/15-gw-pumped-hydro-announced-australia">are being planned</a> including big systems in <a href="https://qldhydro.com.au/projects/pioneer-burdekin/">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://energycentral.com/c/cp/15-gw-pumped-hydro-announced-australia">Tasmania</a>.</p>
<p>Pumped hydro uses water, whereas batteries use far more expensive electrochemicals. And hydro systems last much longer than big batteries. It’s not a question of choosing between batteries and pumped hydro. We need both.</p>
<p>Snowy 2.0 will have the capacity to generate 2,000 megawatts of continuous power for a whole week, and so will provide about 350,000 megawatt-hours of storage.</p>
<p>This is 40 times more power capacity than the 50 megawatt RWE battery, and about 900 times the energy storage. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://qldhydro.com.au/projects/pioneer-burdekin/">Pioneer-Burdekin</a> pumped hydro system being developed in Queensland will be able to generate 5,000 megawatts of power for 24 hours. This is 100 times more power and 300 times more energy storage than the RWE big battery. </p>
<h2>What about the cost?</h2>
<p>Upwards of $6 billion is not an insubstantial amount of money. But Snowy 2.0 would have been a bargain if it was completed for $2 billion. And even at, say, $9 billion, the project is still small compared to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/value-renewable-energy-construction">$17 billion</a> Australia spends collectively each year on rooftop solar, windfarms, solar farms, electricity storage and powerlines. </p>
<p>The decision to locate Snowy 2.0 in a national park has been intensely <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-threatens-to-pollute-our-rivers-and-wipe-out-native-fish-135194">criticised</a>. Indeed, my colleagues and I recently identified several attractive alternative sites for 500,000 megawatt-hour pumped hydro projects just a few kilometres west of Snowy 2.0, outside national parks, which you can see in this <a href="https://re100.anu.edu.au/#share=g-98faa867f8f4c295a3a68f781029e950">interactive map</a>. Each would require only a short tunnel and a single new reservoir.</p>
<p>However, at the time the Turnbull government committed to Snowy 2.0, it was the only large-scale storage option on the table. And it’s now fairly far down the construction track. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-threatens-to-pollute-our-rivers-and-wipe-out-native-fish-135194">Snowy 2.0 threatens to pollute our rivers and wipe out native fish</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Snowy 2.0 is worth doing</h2>
<p>Solar and wind could provide <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">virtually all</a> future energy both in Australia and globally. </p>
<p>This would <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220327857?via%3Dihub">eliminate three-quarters</a> of Australia’s greenhouse emissions. But it requires a doubling of electricity generation, supported by up to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220327857?via%3Dihub">one million megawatt-hours</a> of energy storage.</p>
<p>So for the sake of the renewables transition, let’s hope Snowy 2.0’s technical and financial difficulties are resolved. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">Batteries of gravity and water: we found 1,500 new pumped hydro sites next to existing reservoirs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and DFAT</span></em></p>Australia’s renewable energy transformation will require a huge amount of energy storage. We need Snowy 2.0 to succeed.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2047922023-05-04T01:01:05Z2023-05-04T01:01:05ZAustralia is facing a 450,000-tonne mountain of used solar panels. Here’s how to turn it into a valuable asset<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524231/original/file-20230503-1235-6w7v3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C49%2C1024%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CPVA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There were an estimated <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7996851/australias-100-million-solar-panel-puzzle/">100 million</a> individual solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in Australia at the end of 2022. We estimate this number will likely grow to <a href="https://www.circularpv.com.au/_files/ugd/10e921_d7a4fbb30adb4fd585b5d4784ccdc24b.pdf">over 2 billion</a> if we are to meet Australia’s <a href="https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/">2050 net-zero</a> emissions target. This growth means Australia is facing a <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2016/IRENA_IEAPVPS_End-of-Life_Solar_PV_Panels_2016.pdf?rev=49a75178e38c46288a18753346fb0b09">450,000-tonne</a> mountain of used PV panels by 2040.</p>
<p>Managing all those discarded PV panels will be a huge job. Rather than treating them as “waste”, though, these panels could be a source of social, environmental and economic value. Our new <a href="https://www.circularpv.com.au/new-industry-report">industry report</a> outlines how we can realise that value. </p>
<p>PV panels contain a variety of valuable materials. The panels can also be put to new uses, such as on uninhabited community and sports club buildings, for agricultural irrigation pumps, or for camping and caravanning. </p>
<p>However, at present, they tend to follow a linear, “take, make, dispose” lifecycle. This results in many PV panels being sent to landfill or stockpiled. Much of their value is wasted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="hand lifts up one of a pile of old solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524232/original/file-20230503-26-mqha78.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">PV panels are being discarded in large numbers, but sending them to landfill is a waste.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CPVA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-removing-your-solar-panels-early-please-its-creating-a-huge-waste-problem-for-australia-160546">Stop removing your solar panels early, please. It's creating a huge waste problem for Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the research look at?</h2>
<p>The University of Queensland and Circular PV Alliance have assessed the market for used and surplus PV panels, with funding from <a href="https://energyconsumersaustralia.com.au/">Energy Consumers Australia</a>. Our findings are in <a href="https://www.circularpv.com.au/new-industry-report">the report</a> launched today at the <a href="https://smartenergyexpo.org.au/">Smart Energy Council Expo</a> in Sydney. </p>
<p>Our goal was to understand potential customers and value streams for used PV panels. We also wished to identify market or policy barriers to reusing, repurposing and recycling these panels. </p>
<p>We reviewed the academic research on the topic and conducted a series of interviews. Thirteen organisations with diverse interests in solar energy and PV panel reuse and recycling participated. A series of recurrent themes emerged that indicate potential or perceived opportunities and challenges for PV panel reuse. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-maximise-savings-from-your-home-solar-system-and-slash-your-power-bills-197415">How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the research find?</h2>
<p>Overall, there was broad concern among interviewees that PV panels are being decommissioned before the end of their productive lives. A few key reasons stood out:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/Accountability%20and%20reporting/Administrative%20Reports/The%20Renewable%20Energy%20Target%202015%20Administrative%20Report/The-renewable-energy-certificate-market.aspx">renewable energy certificates</a> encourage PV investors to install new panels rather than extend the life of older panels, because the subsidy is paid in full on installation, rather than as power is generated</p></li>
<li><p>low-quality PV products have a high failure rate</p></li>
<li><p>an array that combines different PV panels can be limited by the lowest-performing panel.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These issues contribute to the already large amounts of discarded panels coming from solar farms, and warranty and insurance claims.</p>
<p>However, we also found reclaimed PV panels offer low-cost, clean energy options for households and community energy projects. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-power-can-cut-living-costs-but-its-not-an-option-for-many-people-they-need-better-support-201090">Solar power can cut living costs, but it's not an option for many people – they need better support</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young woman in hi-viz carries PV parts as she walks past two old solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524233/original/file-20230503-14-ykdqca.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Several challenges must be overcome to scale up the work of repurposing and recycling the volume of panels discarded in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CPVA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even when not reusable, PV panels include valuable materials that can be recovered. The average silicon panel <a href="https://www.circularpv.com.au/_files/ugd/10e921_d7a4fbb30adb4fd585b5d4784ccdc24b.pdf">contains</a> silver (47% of recycled materials value), aluminium (frame, 26%), silicon (cells, 11%), glass (8%) and copper (8%). </p>
<p>And PV panel recycling is becoming more efficient. This has led to better-quality outputs and higher recovery rates. For example, nano-silicon created by processing recovered silicon can sell for over <a href="https://ifm.deakin.edu.au/2023/01/new-process-extracts-silicon-from-solar-panels-to-build-better-batteries/">A$44,000 per kilogram</a>.</p>
<p>A shift towards viewing a PV panel as a valuable resource or asset, rather than “waste”, will improve both consumer and industry understanding of its inherent value, even when it’s not brand new.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-is-the-cheapest-power-and-a-literal-light-bulb-moment-showed-us-we-can-cut-costs-and-emissions-even-further-187008">Solar is the cheapest power, and a literal light-bulb moment showed us we can cut costs and emissions even further</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do we turn ‘waste’ into an asset?</h2>
<p>We can keep used PV panels out of landfill by treating them as an asset through a value-capture system. This will create a variety of benefits and opportunities. </p>
<p>The circular economy model loops the “take, make, reuse” phases into a self-sustaining cycle. It provides a foundation to grow markets for used PV panels. This will tap into consumer demands for credible and sustainable products and services. </p>
<p>There are already successful examples of similar solutions for other products in Australia and around the world. Australian examples include the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/waste/product-stewardship/products-schemes/television-computer-recycling-scheme">National Television and Computer Recycling Scheme</a>
and <a href="https://www.tyrestewardship.org.au/">Tyre Stewardship Australia</a>, as well as state-based beverage container deposit schemes. </p>
<p>So how do we set up a circular economy for PV panels? We found a combination of policies, regulations and commercial services can overcome the obstacles to reuse and recycling. </p>
<p>A consistent, national approach is needed to establish successful markets for used PV panels. Standards for testing and certifying these panels, as well as repair warranties, are essential to build consumer trust in this product. </p>
<p>Industry reporting and accreditation requirements as well as product traceability, so the reused and recycled panels can be accounted for, are all important elements of product stewardship and used PV panel markets. </p>
<p>Targeted engagement with a broader range of potential consumers, insurers and PV panel manufacturers will help overcome their perceived barriers to reusing panels. </p>
<p>Taken together, these actions are the building blocks of creating a circular economy for PV panels in Australia. The looming volumes of used panels and ever-increasing amount of solar energy being installed in Australia compel us to do this. Consumers, industry and the environment will all benefit.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The author acknowledges Megan Jones, Circular PV Alliance co-founder and director, for her contribution to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204792/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan Jones, Circular PV Alliance co-founder and Director, was employed as a research assistant by The University of Queensland for the work discussed in this article and was an author of the industry report. Archie Chapman received funding from Energy Consumers Australia to conduct this research. He is affiliated with the Circular PV Alliance.</span></em></p>As the energy revolution gains pace, huge numbers of PV panels are already going to landfill. Many are still usable and even those that aren’t contain valuable materials that shouldn’t be discarded.Archie Chapman, Senior Lecturer, School of IT and Electrical Engineering, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2020942023-04-26T21:16:23Z2023-04-26T21:16:23ZHow shading crops with solar panels can improve farming, lower food costs and reduce emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522881/original/file-20230425-1231-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C13%2C986%2C547&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Agrivoltaic farming — growing crops in the protected shadows of solar panels — can help meet Canada's food and energy needs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Alexis Pascaris, AgriSolar)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you have lived in a home with a trampoline in the backyard, you may have observed the unreasonably tall grass growing under it. This is because <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">many crops, including these grasses, actually grow better when protected from the sun</a>, to an extent.</p>
<p>And while the grass under your trampoline grows by itself, researchers in the field of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/solar/photovoltaics-and-electricity.php#:%7E:text=">solar photovoltaic technology</a> — made up of solar cells that convert sunlight directly into electricity — have been working on shading large crop lands with solar panels — on purpose.</p>
<p>This practice of growing crops in the protected shadows of solar panels is called <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/agrivoltaic-farming-solar-energy/">agrivoltaic farming</a>. And it is happening right here in <a href="https://agrivoltaicscanada.ca/">Canada</a>.</p>
<p>Such agrivoltaic farming can help meet Canada’s food and energy needs and reduce its fossil fuel reliance and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/how-canadians-can-cut-carbon-footprints-1.6202194">greenhouse gas emissions</a> in the future. </p>
<h2>When shade equals protection</h2>
<p>Our recently published paper found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">Canada has an enormous agrivoltaic potential</a> as it is a global agricultural powerhouse — with <a href="https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/canada-agri-food-powerhouse.html">Canadian-produced food export goals set at $75 billion by 2025</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing the benefits of agrivoltaic farming" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516130/original/file-20230317-3219-h1ixfx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agrivoltaics provide numerous services including renewable electricity generation, decreased greenhouse gas emissions, increased crop yield, plant protection and so on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">(U. Jamil, A. Bonnington, J.M. Pearce)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many crops grown here, including corn, lettuce, potatoes, tomatoes, wheat and pasture grass have already been proven to increase with agrivoltaics. </p>
<p>Studies from all over the world have shown crop yields increase when the crops are partially shaded with solar panels. These yield increases are possible because of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.04.012">microclimate created underneath the solar panels</a> that conserves water and protects plants from excess sun, wind, hail and soil erosion. This makes more food per acre, and could help bring down food prices.</p>
<p>And as <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/08/just-the-facts-the-cost-of-solar-has-fallen-more-quickly-than-experts-predicted/">the costs of solar energy plummet</a>, nations across the world are <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.024">installing agrivoltaic systems</a> and offsetting the burning of fossil fuels by profitably producing more renewable energy.</p>
<h2>Solar farming is now globally trending</h2>
<p>The agricultural industries in Europe, Asia and the United States have been aggressively expanding their agrivoltaic farms with wide public support. </p>
<p>In Europe, solar panels are put over different types of crops, including <a href="https://debate.energy/en/i/133-agrivoltaic-systems-produce-energy-and-food/">fruit trees</a>. Meanwhile, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116338">in China, agrivoltaics is used to reverse desertification</a> which is literally using solar panels to green former deserts. </p>
<p>In the U.S., social science studies have shown the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102023">photovoltaic industry</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10121885">farmers</a> and the general public are enthusiastically looking forward to the implementation of such projects. </p>
<p>Surveys of the rural U.S., from Michigan to Texas, show <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44173-022-00007-x">81.8 per cent of respondents would be more likely to support solar development in their community if it integrated farming</a>. Rural residents generally like the idea of maintaining agricultural jobs, increased revenue from the sale of energy and the fact that it could provide a continued source of income. They believe it can act as a buffer against inflation and bad growing seasons.</p>
<h2>It’s time to expand Canadian solar farms</h2>
<p>In Canada, agrivoltaics has primarily been applied to <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/12/29/news/doubting-farmers-proof-solar-panels-and-sheep-get-along-just-fine">conventional solar farms</a> and used by shepherds and their sheep. While the shepherds get paid to cut the grass on solar farms, the sheep use the grass and pastures under the solar panels for shade and grazing. Sheep-based agrivoltaics is found throughout Canada.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing parts of Canada with high solar flux." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516133/original/file-20230317-2069-js4ch1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map showing the agrivoltaic potential in Canada. The colours indicate the solar flux (amount of solar energy per unit area) in the areas that are currently farmed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">(U. Jamil, A. Bonnington, JM Pearce)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The life cycle analysis of agrivoltaics, which assesses its impact from its conception to use, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cles.2022.100036">found that these solar-covered farms emit 69.3 per cent less greenhouse gases and demand 82.9 per cent less fossil energy compared to separate food farms and solar farms-based production</a>. </p>
<p>This is great, but to remain competitive with other major agriculture producers, Canada needs to start large-scale agriculture in the shadow of solar panels. This will enable the production of numerous crops that have been known to increase yield when covered.</p>
<p>This would include vegetables like broccoli, celery, peppers, lettuce, spinach and tomatoes as well as field crops like potatoes, corn and wheat.</p>
<p>Seriously embracing agrivoltaics in Canada would completely drop fossil fuel use. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043228">Less than one per cent of Canadian land would be sufficient to support over 25 per cent of the country’s electrical energy needs using this system</a>.</p>
<p>This in turn can help the nation honour its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the non-emitting share of electricity generation to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/climate-change/erp/Canada-2030-Emissions-Reduction-Plan-eng.pdf">90 per cent by 2030</a>.</p>
<h2>Agrivoltaic solar farms outstrip electricity demand</h2>
<p>The potential of agrivoltaic-based solar energy production in Canada far outstrips current electric demand. This solar energy can be used to electrify and decarbonize transportation and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040834">heating</a>, expand economic opportunities by <a href="https://doi.org/10.5195/ledger.2023.278">powering the burgeoning computing sector</a> and export green electricity to the U.S. to help eliminate their dependence on fossil fuels as well.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An EV getting charged" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523063/original/file-20230426-1087-axvgjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This solar energy from agrivoltaic farms can be used to electrify and decarbonize transportation and heating.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Electricity produced by agrivoltaic farms can also be stored by <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies10060114">charging electric vehicles</a> as well as hydrogen production, thus benefiting transportation. Solar can already profitably meet <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040834">Ontario households’ heating requirements by replacing natural gas furnaces with solar-powered heat pumps</a>.</p>
<p>Lastly, any extra agrivoltaic electricity could be used to <a href="https://doi.org/10.5195/ledger.2023.278">power computing facilities and cryptocurrency miners at profit</a> and possibly be exported to the U.S. to help them clean up their much dirtier grid. This would help increase our trade surplus as well as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.119">health and environmental benefits of decreasing the American pollution</a> that wafts across the border.</p>
<h2>When benefits outweigh the costs</h2>
<p>Despite the numerous benefits of agrivoltaic farming, there are some barriers to its distribution in Canada. There are well-intentioned regulations that are holding these farms back. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su14053037">Ontario for example, you cannot install solar in the Greenbelt</a> because of the law to protect farms. Similar <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en16010053">issues arise in Alberta on Crown Land</a>.</p>
<p>In the old days that made sense. We did not want to repeat the U.S. fiasco of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3200/ENVT.49.9.30-43">raising food prices for energy crops</a>. Now we know that with agrivoltaics we can get more food while using solar technology to make electricity.</p>
<p>The other main issue holding agrivoltaics back is capital costs. Agrivoltaics has a much higher capital cost per acre than farmers are accustomed to, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.024">but the revenue is much higher</a>. So even though it is profitable it is difficult for farmers to implement large agrivoltaic systems on their own. </p>
<p>This means we need new methods of financing, new partnerships and new business models to help Canada take advantage of the strategic benefits of agrivoltaics for our farmers and the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received funding for research from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). In addition, his past and present consulting work and research is funded by the United Nations, the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, many non-profits and for-profit companies in the energy and solar photovoltaic fields. He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada. He does not directly work for any solar manufacturer and has no direct conflicts of interests. </span></em></p>Canada can meet its carbon emission reduction targets, make food cheap again and open up a gigantic trade surplus with the U.S. by shading farm crops with solar panels.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023692023-04-04T14:27:04Z2023-04-04T14:27:04ZGreen energy: South Africa’s transition plan must be careful not to deepen inequality – the 3 top issues<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518487/original/file-20230330-18-ig4z6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jon Callas/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">UN Climate Change Agreement</a> was signed by 196 nations in December 2015, many countries have announced policies to reduce their fossil fuel emissions. </p>
<p>Their commitments are set out in nationally determined actions they’ll be taking to achieve this.</p>
<p>But the transition must navigate political economy tensions, especially in developing countries.</p>
<p>Take South Africa, for example. It has deep-seated socioeconomic challenges, such as inequality and unemployment. Its unemployment rate (including people who have given up looking for jobs) is unacceptably high at <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20release%20QLFS%20Q4%202022.pdf">42.5%</a>. The country is also among the most <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?most_recent_value_desc=true">unequal in the world</a>.<br>
And inequality remains mostly delineated by “race”. The mainstream economy <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-people-in-south-africa-still-hold-the-lions-share-of-all-forms-of-capital-75510">remains predominantly owned by the white minority</a> almost 30 years after democracy.</p>
<p>South Africa is under pressure to move from fossil fuels to green energy, with a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_5768">strong emphasis on renewable</a> sources.
It has developed a <a href="https://www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework">just energy transition framework</a> and a <a href="https://www.climatecommission.org.za/south-africas-jet-ip">just investment proposal</a> that has so far yielded €600 million in concessional finance <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/comm_media/press/2022/2022110901%20Media%20statement-France%20and%20Germany%20extend%20%E2%82%AC600%20million%20in%20financing%20to%20support%20SAs%20transition%20from%20coal.pdf">from France and Germany</a>. </p>
<p>The country is yet to formulate a systematic transition plan, however. Such a plan would be underpinned by a social contract, supported by a broad range of stakeholders and affected groups. </p>
<p>Moving to green energy will affect those directly employed in the coal mining sector. This is <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=14682">a fifth of those employed</a> in the mining sector. That means 108,000 out of 514,859 people.</p>
<p>The ripple effects of the transition will also be felt across the value chain – from mines to markets and into people’s homes.</p>
<hr>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-are-hurting-small-businesses-in-south-africa-but-sharing-resources-and-equipment-might-be-a-solution-200871">Power cuts are hurting small businesses in South Africa - but sharing resources and equipment might be a solution</a>
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<p>Making the green energy transition a success requires that the government pay attention not just to environmental factors, but also to socioeconomic needs. It must pay special attention to the impact on workers and communities in mining areas, and the macroeconomic effects of dwindling foreign exchange earnings and taxes.</p>
<p>Ignoring socioeconomic issues risks a populist backlash that could slow a necessary transition to a green industrial economy.</p>
<h2>Socioeconomic imperatives</h2>
<p>The core mission of South Africa’s a shift towards green energy should be to achieve economic growth, rising employment, and greater equity and inclusion. It must do all this while minimising social risks.</p>
<p>A green energy transition that is not anchored in fairness and inclusivity could potentially multiply socioeconomic risks.</p>
<p>Any efforts to move away from fossil fuels must cover three key areas. These include retraining workers who face retrenchment, and developing supply chains that give opportunities to small, micro and medium enterprises.</p>
<h2>3 key elements for a sound green transition plan</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Retrain workers in the coal industry who will be retrenched in the process, and offer them an alternative source of livelihood. The transition, as the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/11/03/for-a-just-transition-away-from-coal-people-must-be-at-the-center">World Bank proposes</a>, requires a “whole-of-society” approach. This should entail engagements with everyone who is affected to ensure that no one is left behind. </p></li>
<li><p>Promote inclusive supply chains to enable greater participation of small, micro and medium enterprises, especially in small equipment manufacturing activities, installation, civil works, <a href="https://connectamericas.com/content/how-can-smes-participate-renewable-energy-business">retail and maintenance</a>. </p>
<p>The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development <a href="https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD_2018_SME%20Issue%20Paper_WEB.pdf">notes that</a>
small and medium enterprises can be important drivers of green and inclusive growth. They can be encouraged to adopt green strategies as part of their preconditions <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/msmes_e/ersd_research_note3_small_business_and_climate_change.pdf">for participating in the supply chains of major firms</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Enhance energy security by attracting investment into other cleaner sources of energy. For example, the European Union is considering reclassifying nuclear as part of green energy. Major countries such as France insist on “technology neutrality” to include nuclear and hydrogen in their energy mix, rather than to privilege solar and wind energy sources <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0fe8cf12-9664-49e1-91b4-3e9edbbc5fdb">that do not have baseload</a>. Lack of baseload compromises energy security.</p>
<p>Renewable energy sources provide intermittent power, depending on the availability of sun or wind, whereas average demand requires consistent supply. Europe’s predicament in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine best illustrates this: as soon as Russia throttled Europe’s gas supply, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/10/14/europes-self-inflicted-energy-crisis/?sh=6a24c2972af3">governments rationed electricity to curb demand</a>. Or they ramped up the demand for coal from countries such as Colombia, Australia and South Africa <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-ramps-up-coal-imports-energy-supply-fears-grow-2022-07-26/">to ensure baseload</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>A wide lens</h2>
<p>As countries march towards a brave new world of green technologies, they must ensure that those left behind, and trapped at the bottom of the old industrial economy, are at the helm of the new economy. The transition to the ideal state must reflect a broad energy mix, rather than leaning on a narrow set of technologies that may not adequately offer energy security or produce just and equitable outcomes.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-energy-transition-package-still-in-green-and-brown-camouflage-171863">South Africa’s energy transition package: still in green and brown camouflage</a>
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<p>South Africa must balance environmental concerns, socioeconomic imperatives and energy security in its transition strategies. </p>
<p>For this to be possible, the answer, according to the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/renewables-energy-transition-africa-jobs/">World Economic Forum</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>will very likely have to be a combination of institutional capacity building, well-chosen policies and a substantial contribution by the international community – technologically as well as financially.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Wits School of Governance received a grant from the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP). I can confirm that this comes with no conditions on what I publish. This article is not commissioned by GEAPP or any other organisation. </span></em></p>Making the green energy transition a success requires governments to pay attention to environmental factors and socioeconomic imperatives.Mzukisi Qobo, Head: Wits School of Governance, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977292023-02-02T11:36:15Z2023-02-02T11:36:15ZWater ATMs were introduced in Ghana - and are changing the way people can access this vital resource<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505297/original/file-20230119-16-omk19c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A water-vendor collects water in jerrycans to sell.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">TONY KARUMBA/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Universal, safe and reliable water access is a pressing need in the global south. <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1474551/retrieve">One-quarter</a> of the world’s population don’t currently have access to clean drinking water. In Ghana, about <a href="https://www.wateraid.org/where-we-work/ghana">5 million</a> people out of a total population of about 31 million lack access to clean, safe water. One person in ten has to spend more than 30 minutes to get drinking water. </p>
<p>Problems are particularly acute in off-grid communities. These are the low-income, rural and peri-urban locations that aren’t connected to municipal or main centralised water supply. </p>
<p>The private sector and other non-governmental providers are getting increasingly involved in filling the gap, sometimes in partnership with the government. Some private water service providers have turned to innovations like “water ATMs”. These automated standpipes are popping up as a way to expand affordable water services. </p>
<p>Powered by solar energy, most water ATMs are designed to operate 24 hours a day. They are low-cost, self-contained, automated water vending machines that store clean water and are most often connected to a water purifying plant that uses groundwater. Customers buy water from the ATMs using a water card, which is topped up with credit via mobile money. </p>
<p>In my recent <a href="https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/vol15/v15issue3/681-a15-3-10">study</a>, I set out to explore how water ATMs were working in low-income, peri-urban or off-grid locations in Ghana. I found that water ATMs delivered relatively limited operational-level value. And they were changing the water access landscape – not always for the better, from users’ point of view. </p>
<h2>Impact of water ATMs on water access</h2>
<p>The research was conducted in Yawkwei, a peri-urban community in the Ashanti region of Ghana. Here, off-grid households have the choice of using water ATMs or not, but can also rely on other sources such as other private standpipes and community boreholes.</p>
<p>The water ATMs were operated by Safe Water Network, a non-profit organisation dedicated to developing and implementing small, financially viable water initiatives. They were installed at six water standpipes, five with a single ATM and a main station with two ATMs, together serving about 2,000 people. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Pipe-borne water tap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C2239%2C2997&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505076/original/file-20230118-14-dvcqkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A water ATM point in Yawkwei.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Godfred Amankwaa</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Water ATMs were installed incrementally and used the existing physical, institutional and financial infrastructure in the community. This was done to reduce the cost and the chance of resistance or rejection of the innovation. It relied on what was already in place, such as mobile phones, Safe Water Network’s standpipes, and community actors like water station operators and mobile money agents.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-its-really-worth-to-pipe-water-to-homes-in-rural-zambia-155149">What it's really worth to pipe water to homes in rural Zambia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The study found five main ways in which water ATMs were changing the water access landscape.</p>
<p><strong>Improved water reliability and access:</strong> Water ATMs provided more reliable, flexible and convenient (time-saving) access than former or competing types of off-grid water provision in the community. For instance, people spent on average 15 minutes for a round trip, from home to water ATM and back, compared to 29 minutes at two non-ATM boreholes in the community. Also, people could collect water outside the station caretaker’s or vendor’s hours of business. Collection could fit in around other livelihood activities instead of disrupting them.</p>
<p><strong>Cost and changes in water practices:</strong> Water ATMs brought the relation between costs and water more to the fore for users. Users became more cautious at the point of water collection, since they would be paying for any water spilt. Also, despite the technology not changing water prices or tariffs (20 litres for 10 pesewas), some users claimed they were effectively being charged more because they didn’t get the same volume of water for their money.</p>
<p>A water ATM user said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>(…) see, this pipe (water ATM point) is closer to me but the prices of late make me visit the other standpipe by the store. When I use this same container (a 40-litre bucket), a Ghana cedi (GH₵1) purchase guarantees five times of that container from other vendors. But instead of getting five times, I only sometimes get four times at same amount when I use the water ATMs. I prefer to walk that distance if I can get an extra container of water. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Changes in the everyday social relations at the standpipe:</strong> Some of the former informal, social aspects of water access, such as an exchange of gossip, views and concerns during water collection, were reduced.</p>
<p><strong>Roles and power shifts:</strong> New actors became an essential part of water collection. Some were community-based (mobile money agents), others at the national level (the mobile operator MTN) and overseas (eWaterPay). They benefited from consumer payments and use of mobile money related services.</p>
<p><strong>Empowerment vs disempowerment:</strong> Households without water ATM cards or credits, and women who were vendors at off-grid water standpipes, were disempowered. For instance, four women vendors at different water standpipes had lost their livelihoods as a result of water digitalisation. Those with water cards were empowered.</p>
<h2>Bottom-up approach</h2>
<p>Based on my findings, I suggest the following ways to make water ATMs more effective.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Government should enable a favourable policy and regulatory space for water infrastructure investment and an enabling ecosystem for locally based digital innovations.</p></li>
<li><p>Water service providers, when they introduce innovations, should adopt and build on existing systems and local institutions to create a supportive enabling environment.</p></li>
<li><p>Affordable pricing should be set from the outset to encourage buy-in and usage.</p></li>
<li><p>Government should collaborate with private water providers to incrementally adopt digital water technologies. First they should put in place risk management mechanisms to help prioritise and reduce risks threatening the sustainability of existing infrastructure and for safe and affordable water delivery.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Godfred Amankwaa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Digital technology is changing the way water is accessed in Ghana. Water ATMs are gaining traction as a means to an end.Godfred Amankwaa, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1970942023-01-26T13:24:32Z2023-01-26T13:24:32ZHow California’s ambitious new climate plan could help speed energy transformation around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503134/original/file-20230104-18-mt4v7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C46%2C5130%2C3356&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electrifying trucks and cars and shifting to renewable energy are crucial for California's zero-emissions future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/traffic-passes-a-wind-farm-in-the-san-gorgonio-pass-near-news-photo/1371863246">Sergio Pitamitz / VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>California is embarking on an audacious <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/ab-32-climate-change-scoping-plan">new climate plan</a> that aims to eliminate the state’s greenhouse gas footprint by 2045, and in the process, slash emissions far beyond its borders. The blueprint calls for massive transformations in industry, energy and transportation, as well as changes in institutions and human behaviors.</p>
<p>These transformations won’t be easy. Two years of developing the plan have exposed myriad challenges and tensions, including environmental justice, affordability and local rule.</p>
<p>For example, the San Francisco Fire Commission had <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/san-francisco-solar-power-bureaucracy-17659868.php">prohibited batteries</a> with more than 20 kilowatt-hours of power storage in homes, severely limiting the ability to store solar electricity from rooftop solar panels for all those times when the sun isn’t shining. More broadly, local opposition to new transmission lines, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-san-bernardino-solar-renewable-energy-20190228-story.html">large-scale solar and wind facilities</a>, substations for truck charging, and oil refinery conversions to produce renewable diesel will slow the transition.</p>
<p>I had a front row seat while the plan was prepared and vetted as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=roV8b2sAAAAJ&hl=en">longtime board member</a> of the California Air Resources Board, the state agency that oversees air pollution and climate control. And my chief contributor to this article, <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/about/leadership/rajinder-sahota">Rajinder Sahota</a>, is deputy executive officer of the board, responsible for preparing the plan and navigating political land mines.</p>
<p>We believe California has a chance of succeeding, and in the process, showing the way for <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-low-carbon-energy-technology-investment-surges-past-1-trillion-for-the-first-time/">the rest of the world</a>. In fact, most of the needed policies are already in place.</p>
<h2>What happens in California has global reach</h2>
<p>What California does matters far beyond state lines.</p>
<p>California is close to being the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-24/california-poised-to-overtake-germany-as-world-s-no-4-economy">world’s fourth-largest economy</a> and has a history of adopting environmental requirements that are imitated across the United States and the world. California has the most ambitious <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-cars-program/advanced-clean-cars-ii">zero-emission requirements</a> in the world for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2022/12/19/zero-emission-vehicle-sales-standards-california-and-chinas-secret-weapon-on-transportation-electrification/">cars</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-passenger-cars-and-pickups-5-questions-answered-about-electrifying-trucks-192802">trucks</a> and <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/innovative-clean-transit-ict-regulation-fact-sheet">buses</a>; the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielsperling/2018/10/17/how-almost-everyone-came-to-love-low-carbon-fuels-in-california/#5880dae85e84">most ambitious</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.029">low-carbon fuel requirements</a>; one of the largest <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/california-cap-and-trade/">carbon cap-and-trade programs</a>; and the most aggressive requirements for renewable electricity.</p>
<p>In the U.S., through <a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2022/04/epas-revived-clean-cars-waiver-for-california/">peculiarities in national air pollution law</a>, <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/%C2%A7177_states_05132022_NADA_sales_r2_ac.pdf">other states</a> have replicated many of California’s regulations and programs so they can race ahead of national policies. States can either follow federal vehicle emissions standards or California’s stricter rules. There is no third option. An increasing number of states now follow California.</p>
<p>So, even though California contributes <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/ghg-inventory-data">less than 1%</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions, if it sets a high bar, its many technical, institutional and behavioral innovations will likely spread and be transformative.</p>
<h2>What’s in the California blueprint</h2>
<p>The new <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/ab-32-climate-change-scoping-plan/2022-scoping-plan-documents">Scoping Plan</a> lays out in considerable detail how California intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 48% below 1990 levels by 2030 and then achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.</p>
<p>It calls for a 94% reduction in petroleum use between 2022 and 2045 and an 86% reduction in total fossil fuel use. Overall, it would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2045 relative to 1990 levels. The remaining 15% reduction would come from <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/carbon-capture-sequestration/about">capturing carbon</a> from the air and fossil fuel plants, and sequestering it below ground or in forests, vegetation and soils.</p>
<p><iframe id="0IdG2" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0IdG2/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To achieve these goals, the plan calls for a 37-fold increase in on-road zero-emission vehicles, a sixfold increase in electrical appliances in residences, a fourfold increase in installed wind and solar generation capacity, and doubling total electricity generation to run it all. It also calls for ramping up <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/green-hydrogen-explained">hydrogen power</a> and altering agriculture and forest management to reduce wildfires, sequester carbon dioxide and reduce fertilizer demand.</p>
<p>This is a massive undertaking, and it implies a massive transformation of many industries and activities. </p>
<h2>Transportation: California’s No. 1 emitter</h2>
<p>Transportation accounts for <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/about/core-responsibility-fact-sheets/transforming-transportation">about half</a> of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, including upstream oil refinery emissions. This is where the path forward is perhaps most settled.</p>
<p>The state has already adopted regulations requiring almost all new cars, trucks and buses to have zero emissions – new <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-transitioning-all-electric-public-bus-fleet-2040">transit buses by 2029</a> and most <a href="https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/09/california-phase-out-diesel-trucks-zero-emission/">truck sales</a> and light-duty vehicle <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/going-zero">sales by 2035</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, California’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielsperling/2018/10/17/how-almost-everyone-came-to-love-low-carbon-fuels-in-california/?sh=6533ef3f5e84">Low Carbon Fuel Standard</a> requires oil companies to steadily reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. This regulation aims to ensure that the liquid fuels needed for legacy cars and trucks still on the road after 2045 will be low-carbon biofuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two electric truck cabs are parked on either side of a charger with a sign reading '2 hour charging limit'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Port of Long Beach opened the nation’s first publicly accessible charging station for heavy-duty electric trucks in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-port-of-long-beach-became-the-first-in-the-nation-to-news-photo/1442603514">Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But regulations can be modified and even rescinded if opposition swells. If <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/lithium-battery-pack-prices-go-up-for-first-time-since-bloombergnef-began-annual-survey/">battery costs</a> do not resume their downward slide, if electric utilities and others lag in providing <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/clean-transportation-program/california-electric-vehicle">charging infrastructure</a>, and if local opposition blocks new charging sites and grid upgrades, the state could be forced to slow its zero-emission vehicle requirements.</p>
<p>The plan also relies on changes in human behavior. For example, it calls for a 25% reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2030 compared with 2019, which has far dimmer prospects. The <a href="https://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/trnews/trnews341toc.pdf">only strategies</a> likely to significantly reduce vehicle use are steep charges for road use and parking, a move few politicians or voters in the U.S. would support, and a massive increase in <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17h3k4db">shared-ride automated vehicles</a>, which are not likely to scale up for at least another 10 years. Additional charges for driving and parking raise concerns about <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17h3k4db">affordability for low-income commuters</a>.</p>
<h2>Electricity and electrifying buildings</h2>
<p>The key to cutting emissions in almost every sector is electricity powered by renewable energy.</p>
<p>Electrifying most everything means not just replacing most of the state’s natural gas power plants, but also expanding <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation">total electricity production</a> – in this case doubling total generation and quadrupling renewable generation, in just 22 years.</p>
<p>That amount of expansion and investment is mind-boggling – and it is the single most important change for reaching net zero, since electric vehicles and appliances depend on the availability of renewable electricity to count as zero emissions.</p>
<p>Electrification of buildings is in the early stages in California, with <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2021-08/energy-commission-adopts-updated-building-standards-improve-efficiency-reduce-0">requirements in place</a> for new homes to have rooftop solar, and incentives and regulations adopted to replace natural gas use with heat pumps and electric appliances.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and woman stand beside a power box on a home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two microgrid communities being developed in Menifee, Calif., feature all-electric homes equipped with solar panels, heat pumps and batteries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/scott-hensen-vice-president-of-floor-planning-for-kb-home-news-photo/1244678088">Watchara Phomicinda/MediaNews Group/The Press-Enterprise via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The biggest and most important challenge is accelerating renewable electricity generation – mostly wind and utility-scale solar. The state has laws in place requiring <a href="https://trackbill.com/bill/california-senate-bill-1020-clean-energy-jobs-and-affordability-act-of-2022/2226695/">electricity</a> to be 100% <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/sb100">zero emissions by 2045</a> – up from <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation">52% in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>The plan to get there includes offshore wind power, which will require new technology – floating wind turbines. The federal government in December 2022 leased the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-floating-wind-turbines-work-5-companies-just-won-the-first-us-leases-for-building-them-off-californias-coast-196103">first Pacific sites for offshore wind</a> farms, with plans to power over 1.5 million homes. However, years of technical and regulatory work are still ahead.</p>
<p>For solar power, the plan focuses on <a href="https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/renewables_data/solar/index_cms.php">large solar farms</a>, which can scale up faster and at less cost than rooftop solar. The same week the new scoping plan was announced, California’s Public Utility Commission voted to <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/nemrevisit">significantly scale back</a> how much homeowners are reimbursed for solar power they send to the grid, a policy known as net metering. The Public Utility Commission argues that because of how electricity rates are set, <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/energy-institute/research/abstracts/wp-314/">generous rooftop solar reimbursements</a> have primarily benefited wealthier households while imposing <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/energy-institute/research/abstracts/wp-330/">higher electricity bills</a> on others. It believes this new policy will be more equitable and create a more sustainable model.</p>
<h2>Industry and the carbon capture challenge</h2>
<p>Industry plays a smaller role, and the policies and strategies here are less refined.</p>
<p>The state’s carbon <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program">cap-and-trade program</a>, designed to ratchet down total emissions while allowing individual companies some flexibility, will tighten its emissions limits. </p>
<p>But while cap-and-trade has been <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2018/01/02/californias-carbon-cap-is-not-in-jeopardy-because-its-not-really-a-cap/">effective to date</a>, in part by generating billions of dollars for programs and incentives to reduce emissions, its role may change as energy efficiency improves and additional rules and regulations are put in place to replace fossil fuels.</p>
<p>One of the greatest controversies throughout the Scoping Plan process is its reliance on carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS. The controversy is rooted in <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/epa-urged-to-reject-carbon-capture-projects-in-central-california-2022-06-29/">concern that CCS</a> allows fossil fuel facilities to continue releasing pollution while only capturing the carbon dioxide emissions. These facilities are often in or near disadvantaged communities.</p>
<h2>California’s chances of success</h2>
<p>Will California make it? The state has a track record of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-adv-california-climate-pollution-20180722-story.html">exceeding its goals</a>, but getting to net zero by 2045 requires a sharper downward trajectory than even California has seen before, and there are still many hurdles.</p>
<p>Environmental justice concerns about carbon capture and new industrial facilities, coupled with NIMBYism, could block many needed investments. And the possibility of sluggish economic growth <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-budget/2023/01/california-budget-newsom-deficit/">could led to spending cuts</a> and might exacerbate concerns about economic disruption and affordability. </p>
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<p>There are also questions about prices and geopolitics. Will the <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/lithium-battery-pack-prices-go-up-for-first-time-since-bloombergnef-began-annual-survey/">upturn in battery costs</a> in 2022 – due to geopolitical flare-ups, a lag in expanding the supply of critical materials, and the war in Ukraine – turn out to be a hiccup or a trend? Will electric utilities move fast enough in building the infrastructure and grid capacity needed to accommodate the projected growth in zero-emission cars and trucks?</p>
<p>It is encouraging that the state has already created just about all the needed policy infrastructure. Additional tightening of emissions limits and targets will be needed, but the framework and policy mechanisms are largely in place.</p>
<p><em>Rajinder Sahota, deputy executive officer of the California Air Resources Board, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Sperling receives funding from several foundations and government agencies, is a board member of the California Air Resources Board, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, an NGO. </span></em></p>California is one of the world’s largest economies, and it’s aiming for net-zero emissions by 2045. A transportation expert involved in the plan explains why it just might succeed.Daniel Sperling, Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founding Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976882023-01-13T03:22:53Z2023-01-13T03:22:53ZThe A$30 billion Sun Cable crash is a setback but doesn’t spell the end of Australia’s renewable energy export dreams<p>Sun Cable – considered to be the world’s biggest renewable energy export project – <a href="https://suncable.energy/sun-cable-enters-voluntary-administration-strong-development-progress-and-portfolio-provides-opportunity-for-refreshed-alignment-between-company-and-investor-objectives/">announced</a> this week it had entered voluntary administration <a href="https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/duelling-billionaires-burn-sun-cable-20230111-p5cbw2#:%7E:text=Sun%20Cable%20said%20the%20appointment,be%20achieved%2C%E2%80%9D%20it%20said">following</a> “the absence of alignment” with shareholders. </p>
<p>Sun Cable is expected to cost <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/australia-asia-powerlink">over A$30 billion</a>. It <a href="https://suncable.energy/">proposes to</a> build an enormous, 12,000 hectare solar farm in the Northern Territory, add an enormous (40 gigawatt hour) battery for electricity storage, then connect Australia to Singapore via Darwin through an undersea cable over 4,000 kilometres long. This would be by far the world’s longest electricity cable if it existed today.</p>
<p>It would see Darwin access 800 megawatts of additional electricity and Sun Cable could supply “up to” 15% of Singapore’s electricity by 2030. To put this into context, Singapore’s annual electricity consumption <a href="https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch03/index3#:%7E:text=Electricity%20Consumption&text=The%20Industrial%2Drelated%20sector%20remained,%25%20or%208.3%20TWh">is about</a> one quarter of Australia’s.</p>
<p>While this prominent and well funded project has gone into voluntary administration, those enthused about rapid decarbonisation and Australia’s renewable energy export potential need not despair. These events are part of the usual discovery processes. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-might-sound-batshit-insane-but-australia-could-soon-export-sunshine-to-asia-via-a-3-800km-cable-127612">It might sound 'batshit insane' but Australia could soon export sunshine to Asia via a 3,800km cable</a>
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<h2>What Sun Cable promises</h2>
<p>Sun Cable offers an enticing possibility of putting Australia’s land, and the rays of sunshine that fall on it, to use in <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/SGP">displacing gas</a> for electricity production in a distant land. Singapore is keen to procure renewable electricity, and has limited ability to produce that electricity itself. </p>
<p>The project has attracted the enthusiastic support of Australia’s two richest men: Mike Cannon-Brookes and Andrew Forrest. Each has already <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/cannon-brookes-takes-swipe-at-forrest-commits-to-rebuilding-sun-cable-20230112-p5cc0e.html">committed</a> about $50 million to the project and both are experienced investors in renewable electricity in Australia.</p>
<p>When Cannon-Brookes first invested in the project he <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/cannon-brookes-plan-to-export-aussie-solar-power-to-singapore-20190924-p52u9o">described</a> it as “batshit insane” but also that the “engineering all checks out”. </p>
<p>Sun Cable is also supported by Australia’s governments. The NT government passed <a href="https://ntrebound.nt.gov.au/news/2022/propelling-the-sun-cable-project-forward-with-new-legislation#:%7E:text=The%20Territory%20Government%20has%20passed,construction%2C%20and%20350%20during%20operations">laws</a> last year to facilitate its development. The federal government <a href="https://territorygas.nt.gov.au/projects/sun-cables-australia-singapore-power-link">gave it</a> “major project” status. And Infrastructure Australia <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-06/Evaluation%20Summary%20-%20Australia-Asia%20PowerLink.pdf">called</a> the project “investment ready” and placed it on its National Infrastructure Priority List. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/sun-cable-running-joke-or-visionary-decarbonisation-project-20230112-p5cc5f">Media commentary</a> since Sun Cable’s announcement has drawn attention to the differences of view of its two most prominent <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/sun-cable-collapses-despite-backing-from-forrest-cannon-brookes-20230111-p5cbu">shareholders</a>, particularly about their differing level of support for Sun Cable’s management. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cannon-brookes-shakes-up-agl-what-now-for-australias-biggest-carbon-emitter-194625">Cannon-Brookes shakes up AGL: what now for Australia's biggest carbon emitter</a>
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<p>But the exact nature of their disagreement is unclear, and both men <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/double-bay-jesus-versus-god-20230111-p5cbwt">have said</a> <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/cannon-brookes-takes-swipe-at-forrest-commits-to-rebuilding-sun-cable-20230112-p5cc0e.html">they remain</a> interested in the project.</p>
<p>Commentators have suggested the apparent disagreement is a reflection on the commercial and technical viability of the project itself. Matthew Warren, former chief executive of the Australian Energy Council, went so far as <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/sun-cable-was-a-colossus-that-collapsed-under-its-own-weight-20230112-p5cc1b">to describe</a> Sun Cable as “a quiet running joke inside the electricity industry” and that it:</p>
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<p>reflected the ignorance, egos and quest for notoriety of its proponents rather than the needs of its prospective customers.</p>
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<p>But Federal Energy and Climate Minister Chris Bowen, commenting on conversations with Sun Cable’s management, <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/accusations-fly-in-billionaire-battle-for-sun-cable-20230112-p5cc0l">said</a> he was assured the project would proceed. He said the latest developments reflected only a change in corporate structure and approach.</p>
<h2>Comparable projects overseas</h2>
<p>Sun Cable is obviously a very ambitious project. Yet much too little information is publicly available to pronounce, with any certainty, on its commercial and technical viability. </p>
<p>While the project will certainly break new ground, it is not totally in its own league. The similar <a href="https://xlinks.co/renewable-energy-project-announcement">Xlinks project</a> was proposed overseas in 2021 and is now advancing quickly. This project would connect Morocco and England with similar capacity renewable generation and storage, and has a comparably long cable to Sun Cable’s. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-much-more-solar-and-wind-power-but-where-are-the-best-sites-we-mapped-them-all-196033">Australia needs much more solar and wind power, but where are the best sites? We mapped them all</a>
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<p>And at the end of last year, the European Commission <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/eu-commission-approves-first-energy-corridor-between-italy-africa/">committed funding to</a> a high-voltage direct current link between Tunisia in North Africa and Sicily, Italy. It would export 600 megawatts of (mainly) solar electricity produced in Tunisia. </p>
<p>Although a much less ambitious project than either Xlinks or Sun Cable, it is founded on the same vision of long distance inter-continental transmission of renewable electricity. And it is almost certain to proceed.</p>
<p>Just like fossil fuel resources, the world’s renewable resources are unevenly distributed. There are powerful incentives now, on economic and sustainability grounds, to find ways to reliably and cost effectively move renewable electricity from where those resources are abundant to where they are scarce. </p>
<h2>No need for hand wringing</h2>
<p>Inevitably, the latest Sun Cable developments draw attention to the questions of how best to exploit Australia’s endowment of land, sun and wind and how to capitalise on our track record as a reliable supplier with credible government and trusted courts. </p>
<p>For example, instead of trying to export electricity, should we focus on exporting renewably produced <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-australia-to-lead-the-way-on-green-hydrogen-first-we-must-find-enough-water-196144">hydrogen</a> or ammonia for fuel and fertilisers? Or, should we focus on using renewables to process and refine mineral resources before shipping higher-valued products (such as steel, alumina, aluminium and silicone metal) to distant shores? </p>
<p>These questions have attracted considerable interest from policy makers, investors and researchers – in particular, in books from economist Ross Garnaut (<a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Superpower/KPiPDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">Superpower</a> and <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/The_Superpower_Transformation/JRZmEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">The Superpower Transformation</a>) and in former Australian chief scientist Alan Finkel’s forthcoming book <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/powering">Powering Up</a>. </p>
<p>Both authors canvass many possibilities and neither categorically rule out direct renewable electricity export. They also suggest ore processing using renewable electricity is likely to offer great immediate value. </p>
<p>As best I can see, the latest Sun Cable developments provide no new publicly available information to confidently provide new insights into these issues.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/red-dirt-yellow-sun-green-steel-how-australia-could-benefit-from-a-global-shift-to-emissions-free-steel-179286">Red dirt, yellow sun, green steel: how Australia could benefit from a global shift to emissions-free steel</a>
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<p>The outpouring of “I-told-you-so” commentary following Sun Cable’s voluntary administration is to be expected. But perhaps the main import of Sun Cable’s developments is to draw attention to Australia’s good fortune in attracting ambitious and enterprising developers, supported by rich Australians who have been successful swimming against the tide. </p>
<p>Rather than dipping their hands into the public’s pocket to fund the discovery of the best way to exploit Australia’s renewable resources, these enterprising people are risking their own money and reputations in a discovery process likely to benefit us all. </p>
<p>There is no need for a crisis of confidence or a bout of hand wringing about the viability of Australia’s renewable energy export prospects. </p>
<p>Disagreements arise between investors all the time. Administrative and legal processes should provide ways for these to be resolved quickly and amicably, as we should expect here. Viva the discovery process.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While this prominent and well funded project has gone into voluntary administration, those enthused about rapid decarbonisation and Australia’s renewable energy export potential need not despair.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1968092022-12-21T19:12:03Z2022-12-21T19:12:03ZGlobal coal use in 2022 is reaching an all-time high, but Australia is bucking the trend<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502305/original/file-20221221-11-x9xjzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C95%2C7972%2C5880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a year marked by record-smashing floods, fires, heatwaves and droughts, the urgent need to act on climate change has never been more apparent. And yet, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has found <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/the-world-s-coal-consumption-is-set-to-reach-a-new-high-in-2022-as-the-energy-crisis-shakes-markets">coal burning for electricity generation</a> will reach record levels this year.</p>
<p>Why? Largely because rising natural gas prices, due to sanctions on Russia, is driving demand for less expensive coal to fill the gap in energy supply. The report finds Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has “sharply altered the dynamics of coal trade, price levels, and supply and demand patterns in 2022”.</p>
<p>The good news, however, is the world’s coal use has peaked – and will soon rapidly decline. This is because new solar and wind power station capacity is being installed 18 times faster than new coal. In many countries such as Australia, retiring coal power stations are being replaced by solar and wind. </p>
<p>Coal use in Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=1y">peaked in 2008</a>. Since then, the proportion of coal in the NEM electricity mix has fallen from 86% to 59%, and this decline is accelerating.</p>
<p>So why is Australia ahead of the pack in weaning itself off coal? And what lessons can we offer the rest of the world? </p>
<h2>What the report found</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-is-set-to-return-to-its-all-time-high-in-2022">The IEA report</a>, released last week, suggests global coal use will rise 1.2% this year, surpassing 8 billion tonnes for the first time and the previous record set in 2013. Indeed, China, India and Indonesia, the three largest coal producers, will all hit production records this year. </p>
<p>If there’s a silver lining, we’ve reached peak coal, and it’s only down from here. However, severe climate damage will result from a prolonged tail end of the coal industry.</p>
<p>The IEA found despite high prices for coal, there is no sign of big investment in export mining projects. And this, it says, “reflects caution among investors and mining companies about the medium- and longer-term prospects for coal”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/22-ways-to-cut-your-energy-bills-before-spending-on-solar-panels-60847">22 ways to cut your energy bills (before spending on solar panels)</a>
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<h2>Renewables to dethrone ‘King Coal’</h2>
<p>In 2021, about 250 gigawatts of new <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Apr/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2022">solar and wind generation capacity was installed worldwide</a> compared with only <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1crIH1gMBWUDi3kjXDgHY_FQCgVHfiPGtBwFT1gejxlk/edit#gid=787742029">14 gigawatts of net new coal</a> generation capacity.</p>
<p>Thus, new solar and wind capacity is being deployed 18 times faster worldwide than net new coal capacity. So it follows that solar and wind generation will rapidly overtake coal generation, as most existing coal power stations will grow old and retire before 2050.</p>
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<p>In many countries – such as Australia, the United States and Germany – old coal power stations are being retired faster than new coal power stations are being built. In most countries, new renewable generation capacity (mostly solar and wind) is being installed much faster than net new coal capacity.</p>
<p>Policy changes around the world has also reduced investment in new coal power stations. For example, the Asian Development Bank no longer lends to <a href="https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/energy-policy">build new coal-fired power stations</a>. </p>
<p>The cost of coal per tonne has increased from around US$100 before 2021 to US$400 <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal">now</a>. This is also supressing interest in the construction of new coal power stations.</p>
<p>Solar and wind generators dominate new power station construction. Solar and wind generators comprise three quarters of global net new generation capacity, and 99% of new capacity in Australia. This is because they are cheap compared with <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">fossil, nuclear and other renewable technologies</a>. </p>
<p>This market dominance of solar and wind is compelling evidence that they’re the most competitive and practical method of deploying new electricity generation capacity today. Power generation from solar photovoltaics, for instance, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv">increased by 22% last year</a> compared to 2020 levels.</p>
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<p>By 2031, at current solar deployment growth rates of 20-25% per annum, we expect the global installed capacity of solar energy to pass the combined capacity of nuclear, hydroelectricity, gas and coal.</p>
<h2>Australia is the global pathfinder</h2>
<p>Australia is a global solar and wind pathfinder. As solar and wind power rapidly ousts coal, we’re demonstrating how decarbonising the electricity sector is <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-releases-30-year-electricity-market-roadmap">relatively straightforward</a>.</p>
<p>In Australia, solar and wind production in the <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/">National Electricity Market</a> rose from nearly zero in 2008, to 9% in 2017, and to 26% in 2022.</p>
<p>The federal government wants renewables to comprise 82% of electricity in the National Electricity Market by 2030. Hydro currently accounts for about <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/pumped-hydro-energy-storage/">7% of the market</a>, leaving 75% for solar and wind. The rest – 18% – would come from coal and fossil gas combined.</p>
<p>On a per capita basis, Australian solar generation per capita is about <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">double that of its nearest rivals</a> – Germany, Japan and the Netherlands.</p>
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<p>Along with most of the global population, Australia is located in the Earth’s so-called “sunbelt” (less than 40 degrees of latitude). In this region, sunshine is abundant. For northern countries outside of the sunbelt, wind energy (including offshore wind) is abundant. </p>
<p>To supply energy all year round, electricity from solar and wind generation needs to be stored for later use. This problem has been solved thanks to the development of <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">pumped hydro</a> and storage batteries.</p>
<p>Where Australia must do better is to stop allowing new fossil gas mining projects for export, which are greenhouse intensive both when the gas is burnt and also because of leakage of methane – a <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/why-is-gas-bad-for-climate-change-and-energy-prices/">potent greenhouse gas</a>. <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1M">Gas supplies only 7% of generation</a> in Australia’s National Electricity Market. </p>
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<h2>A solar and wind energy future</h2>
<p>Most countries have vastly more solar and/or wind than needed to meet their energy needs without relying on imports - even densely populated countries such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890422000954">Japan</a>, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/17/5424">Indonesia</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ce/article/5/2/243/6275217?guestAccessKey=7cb8f0f7-b536-4439-8faf-48817fbb9f9e">Nepal</a>. Sourcing most energy supplies from their own solar and wind boosts nations’ resilience in the event of war, pandemics, natural disasters and trade disruption.</p>
<p>The compelling economic advantage of solar and wind is now clear. But in many countries, there are impediments to their rapid deployment.</p>
<p>This includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-pay-billions-to-subsidise-australias-fossil-fuel-industry-this-makes-absolutely-no-economic-sense-189866">fossil fuel subsidies</a>, and a lack of an open electricity market that allows the low cost solar and wind to be discovered by the energy market.</p>
<p>Solar and wind are by far the most prospective options to achieve deep and rapid decarbonisation. Australia is leading the way, and the rest of the world must soon follow.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">Batteries of gravity and water: we found 1,500 new pumped hydro sites next to existing reservoirs</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.(P4I).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nadolny receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. </span></em></p>The good news is the world’s coal use has peaked – and will soon rapidly decline. Australia is leading the way, and the rest of the world must soon follow.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityAnna Nadolny, Research Officer, 100% Renewable Energy Group, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1916352022-11-21T13:15:25Z2022-11-21T13:15:25ZHow to design clean energy subsidies that work – without wasting money on free riders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495284/original/file-20221115-12-i6n3tg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C32%2C5464%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How long should a solar subsidies, or any subsidy, last?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/aerial-view-of-electric-car-parking-in-charging-royalty-free-image/1390861566">Artur Debat/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The planet is heating up as greenhouse gas emissions rise, contributing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-thought-this-summers-heat-waves-were-bad-a-new-study-has-some-disturbing-news-about-dangerous-heat-in-the-future-189370">extreme heat waves</a> and <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/09/12/the-flood-seen-from-space-pakistans-apocalyptic-crisis/">once-unimaginable</a> <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/europe-s-deadly-floods-leave-scientists-stunned">flooding</a>. Yet despite the risks, countries’ policies are <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">not on</a> <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now">track</a> to keep global warming in check.</p>
<p>The problem isn’t a lack of technology. The International Energy Agency recently released a detailed analysis of the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022/executive-summary">clean energy technology needed</a> to lower greenhouse gas emissions to net zero globally by 2050. What’s needed, the IEA says, is significant government support to boost solar and wind power, electric vehicles, heat pumps and a variety of other technologies for a rapid energy transition.</p>
<p>One politically popular tool for providing that government support is the subsidy. The U.S. government’s new <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">Inflation Reduction Act</a> is a <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-inflation-reduction-act-heres-whats-in-it">multibillion-dollar example</a>, packed with financial incentives to encourage people to buy electric vehicles, solar panels and more. </p>
<p>But just how big do governments’ clean energy subsidies need to be to meet their goals, and how long are they needed?</p>
<p>Our research points to three important answers for any government considering clean energy subsidies – and for citizens keeping an eye on their progress.</p>
<h2>Why subsidize at all?</h2>
<p>An obvious first question is: Why should governments subsidize clean energy at all?</p>
<p>The most direct answer is that <a href="https://rhg.com/research/climate-clean-energy-inflation-reduction-act/">clean energy helps to reduce harmful emissions</a> – both of gases that cause local pollution and of those that warm the planet.</p>
<p>Reducing emissions helps to lower both public health costs and damage from climate change, which justifies government spending. Reports have estimated that the U.S. <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/costs-inaction-burden-health-report.pdf">spends US$820 billion</a> a year just on health costs associated with air pollution and climate change. Globally, the World Health Organization estimated that the costs reached <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-12-2018-health-benefits-far-outweigh-the-costs-of-meeting-climate-change-goals">$5.1 trillion</a> in 2018. Taxing and regulating polluting industries can also cut emissions, but carrots are often more politically popular than sticks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A female scientist holds a solar cell between tweezers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494319/original/file-20221109-8958-sqcdrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Subsidies helped launch the solar industry. Buyers today can get a 30% tax credit for home solar installations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nrel.gov/MX/Profiles/en/default/#/main/gallery/2e49a09c-181d-4712-8d08-4751fa1c25e3">Joe DelNero/NREL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A less obvious reason for subsidies is that government support can help a new and initially expensive technology become competitive in the market.</p>
<p>Governments have been central to the development of many technologies that are pervasive today, including microchips, the internet, solar panels and GPS. Microchips were <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2009/06/1959-when-america-first-met-the-microchip.html">fantastically expensive</a> when first developed in the 1950s. Demand from the U.S. military and NASA, which could pay the high price, fueled the growth of the industry, and costs eventually dropped enough that they’re now found in everything from cars to toasters.</p>
<p>Government <a href="https://www.seia.org/initiatives/solar-investment-tax-credit-itc">support</a> has also helped to bring down the cost of solar power. Rooftop solar system costs <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html">fell 64%</a> from 2010 to 2020 in the U.S. because cells became more efficient and higher volumes drove prices down.</p>
<h2>How much money?</h2>
<p>So, subsidies can work, but what’s the right amount?</p>
<p>Too low, and a subsidy has no effect. Giving everyone a coupon for $1 off an electric car won’t change anyone’s buying plans. But subsidies can also be set too high. </p>
<p>The government doesn’t need to spend money persuading consumers who already plan to buy an electric car and can afford one, yet studies show clean energy subsidies disproportionately go to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/685597">richer people</a>. When people who would have purchased the item anyway receive subsidies, they’re known as “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44075502">free riders</a>.”</p>
<p>The ideal subsidy attracts new buyers while avoiding free riders and overspending on people who are already convinced. The subsidy can only work when it convinces a previously uninterested consumer to buy a product.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chart shows costs falling as solar purchases rise." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492859/original/file-20221101-12-2r06ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Between 2009 and 2017, solar prices fell 50% and solar purchases increased tenfold with the help of subsidies. Lower cost makes a technology more attractive, while a growing solar industry is able to produce panels at lower cost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.2172/1820126">Barbose et al., 2021; Solar Market Insight Report/SEIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How long should subsidies last?</h2>
<p>Timing is also important when thinking about the size of subsidies. When a promising technology is new and expensive, free riders are less of an issue. A large subsidy may be needed to attract even a few buyers, build out the emerging market and support the industry’s growth. </p>
<p>Solar power is a good example: In 2005, solar was several times more expensive than traditional electricity sources. Subsidies, like the 30% <a href="https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/resources/History%20of%20ITC%20Slides.pdf">Investment Tax Credit</a> established that year, helped lower the cost, and today’s solar is <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices">about one-tenth the price</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy">cost-competitive</a> with other electricity sources.</p>
<p>Once a clean technology is competitive, subsidies can still play an important role in speeding up the energy transition, but at a lower level than in the past.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112326">our research</a> on residential solar panels, we estimate that the ideal subsidy for rooftop solar should have been initially higher than the actual <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/homeowners-guide-federal-tax-credit-solar-photovoltaics">federal tax credit</a> but fall more quickly, declining to zero after 14 years from its start date. </p>
<p>By starting the subsidy about 20% higher, our models found that it would have boosted production faster, which would cut costs faster and reduce the need for high future subsidies. </p>
<h2>Should subsidies eventually disappear?</h2>
<p>It makes sense for subsidies to disappear altogether once a technology is sufficiently cost-competitive. However, even if a technology is competitive, it might be worth further subsidy if the speed of adoption is important. </p>
<p>The argument for continuing a subsidy depends on whether the additional adoption it stimulates is cost-effective in reducing emissions. Wind power is cheaper than fossil fuel power in many parts of the country. Even so, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121840">found</a> that continuing subsidies for wind power would lead to valuable emission benefits. </p>
<p>That said, sometimes subsidies stick around when they shouldn’t. </p>
<p>Fossil fuels have been heavily subsidized for decades, despite their harm to human health, the environment and the climate, all of which raise public costs. Governments globally spent <a href="https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-08/background-note-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform.pdf">almost $700 billion</a> on fossil fuel subsidies in 2021. The U.S. government, in recent years, has spent more on renewable energy tax credits than <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52521-energytestimony.pdf">fossil fuels, which is a promising transition of government support</a>.</p>
<h2>Global impact</h2>
<p>While the U.S. was the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112326">focus of our solar subsidy research</a>, this way of thinking – balancing the costs and benefits of subsidies – can be applied in other nations to design better subsidies for clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>The subsidy is just one policy tool, but it is an important one for both stimulating early-stage technologies and accelerating deployment of more competitive options. As the world attempts the fastest energy transition in history, today’s energy subsidy decisions will affect its ability to succeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191635/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Hittinger receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with with the U.S. Association for Energy Economics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Williams receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Qing Miao receives funding from NSF. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tiruwork B. Tibebu receives funding from NSF. </span></em></p>Start high, drop fast and avoid the free-riders: How to design subsidies that can boost clean energy in the US and elsewhere.Eric Hittinger, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Rochester Institute of TechnologyEric Williams, Professor of Sustainability, Rochester Institute of TechnologyQing Miao, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Rochester Institute of TechnologyTiruwork B. Tibebu, Ph.D. Student, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936922022-11-16T13:11:01Z2022-11-16T13:11:01ZRenewable energy will need more investment, or Africa will stay dependent on fossil fuels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494853/original/file-20221111-17-1d7elu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4994%2C3267&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hydro-power is not sustainable to meet sub-Saharan Africa's energy needs and must be supported wind, solar and geothemal.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/photo-taken-on-april-12-2012-shows-the-masinga-hydro-news-photo/145520563?phrase=hydropower%20in%20Kenya&adppopup=true">Photo by Tony Karumbu/AFP.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power can help sub-Saharan Africa meet its energy requirements from sources that have lower emissions than fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Currently, the sub-continent gets 0.01% of its energy supply from wind, 2% from solar, about 4%-5% from geothermal, 17% from hydro and <a href="https://www.un.org/osaa/sites/www.un.org.osaa/files/concept_note_-_energy_innovation_and_technologies_for_universal_access_and_just_transition_for_africa_9june2022.pdf">77% from fossil fuel</a>. About <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/international-emissions/#:%7E:text=Globally%2C%20the%20primary%20sources%20of,72%20percent%20of%20all%20emissions.">70%</a> of current greenhouse gas emissions come from the global energy sector.</p>
<p>Clearly sub-Saharan Africa needs to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Even though its greenhouse gas emissions account for only <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=ZG">3%</a> of global emissions, the region’s reliance could be the source of a future carbon tsunami. This would happen if energy demand skyrocketed on the back of rapid <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-8-billionth-person-is-born-heres-how-africa-will-shape-the-future-of-the-planets-population-194067">population growth</a>, <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/africas-urbanisation-dynamics-2022-economic-power-africas-cities">urbanisation</a> and economic growth. </p>
<p>There are many who advocate a move to hydropower, which currently accounts for <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">17%</a> of the continent’s energy mix. And the trend is to increase its share.</p>
<iframe title="Africa’s installed energy mixes " aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-3T99M" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3T99M/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="520" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>But I believe there are dangers in this. Based on <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/5/84">my research</a>, and the work of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082621000259">others</a>, I would argue that there are three reasons to suggest that African countries need to diversify their energy sources and avoid a very high dependency on hydropower.</p>
<p>The main concern is climate uncertainty. This could potentially pose a threat to hydropower generation. Generating energy from hydropower depends on precipitation and temperature patterns. Heavier rains and more prolonged droughts will affect the ability of countries to produce hydropower. </p>
<p>The second concern is related: developing hydropower facilities takes decades. It’s hard to plan that far ahead when future climate conditions are uncertain. </p>
<p>And the third difficulty is that the region is vulnerable to water shortages and is already experiencing the consequences. </p>
<p>These obstacles call for energy diversification to solar, wind and geothermal. The cost of solar has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/most-new-wind-solar-projects-cheaper-than-coal-report">declined</a> by 85% and that of wind by 56% in the last year alone. This makes these technologies much more affordable and accessible. </p>
<p>But policy barriers currently impede the development, use and application of these low-carbon energy technologies. </p>
<h2>Dangers ahead for hydropower</h2>
<p>The intensity and duration of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915522000128">precipitation</a> varies across sub-Saharan countries and regions. For example, in southern Africa in 2020 precipitation was less than the historical average for the region. </p>
<p>In other areas, <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3_ch3">wetter weather</a> is expected through to 2100. In the eastern African region this period is projected to be wetter and accompanied by heavy rains. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3273">Variability between years</a> and heavy floods can make managing dams difficult, and disrupt the electricity supply.</p>
<p>This has already been seen to happen. Heavy floods and wreckage have disrupted the operation of dams in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Malawi. In the case of Malawi, this significantly reduced hydropower <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/">generation capacity in 2019</a>).</p>
<p>Variations between years in rainfall and evaporation affect stream flow and determine hydropower generation output. </p>
<iframe title="Hydropower generation in TWh " aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gu9hW" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gu9hW/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="405" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>As shown in this image, the historical data in selected sub-Saharan countries demonstrate the variations in <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/hydropower-data-explorer">hydropower generation</a>. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which carries 42% of the global hydropower potential, shows fluctuations in production. For instance, the DRC’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/hydropower-data-explorer">hydropower generation capacity</a> was reduced 6.1 TWh in 1996 to 4.7 TWh in 1998 (a fall of 22.95%). The hydropower generation capacity in Nigeria was reduced by 27.4% from 2007 to 2009 and 42.3% from 2005 to 2009. Similarly, Kenyan hydropower generation capacity was reduced by 60.6% from 1998 to 2000 and 37.14% from 2008 to 2009. These variations are significant.</p>
<p>The second challenge is that hydropower plants are long-term projects which could last up to 100 years. Under uncertainty about future potential impacts of climate change, it will be risky to build hydropower plants. They might not be sustainable.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-energy-crisis-is-pressuring-countries-climate-plans-while-some-race-to-renewables-others-see-wealth-in-natural-gas-but-drilling-benefits-may-be-short-lived-193944">How the energy crisis is pressuring countries' climate plans – while some race to renewables, others see wealth in natural gas, but drilling benefits may be short-lived</a>
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<p>Thirdly, competition for water between industries, energy, domestic use and irrigation is expected to increase the stress on water availability. Water scarcity would be a critical impediment to supplying Africa’s growing energy needs with hydropower. According to projections, the African population will reach <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1224205/forecast-of-the-total-population-of-africa/#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20forecast%2C%20Africa's,nearly%202.5%20billion%20by%202050">2.5 billion</a> in 2050. An additional 1.7 billion people will need energy, water and food. As of 2021, out of a 1.4 billion population, 600 million people do not have access to <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jan/Renewable-Energy-Market-Analysis-Africa">electricity</a>. The same water is used for drinking water, industry, irrigation and food production. This implies that water stress comes from a multitude of directions, including climate change and socioeconomic development.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.opml.co.uk/blog/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-hydropower-in-africa">80%</a> of the energy generation from hydropower comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia. In my view, all should diversify their energy sources to other renewable to make their energy supply climate resilient and sustainable.</p>
<h2>Barriers to solar and wind</h2>
<p>Policy <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148100001865">studies</a> have identified five major barriers to the development and uptake of solar and wind technologies in sub-Saharan Africa:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>institutional – lack of coordination between different organisations </p></li>
<li><p>technical – a trained labour force and expertise to implement, regulate and monitor technologies</p></li>
<li><p>socio-cultural – low acceptance of the technologies </p></li>
<li><p>financial barriers – lack of subsidies and incentives, and fragmented taxation </p></li>
<li><p>regulatory – weak bodies and problems with land leasing processes. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These barriers are intertwined and reinforce one another. For example, the lack of an independent regulatory system creates unpredictability and deters investment. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>There is a tremendous chasm between aspirations and policy execution in Africa. To close this gap the following steps need to be taken.</p>
<p>Policy barriers must be lifted and there needs to be better co-ordination between the various players. </p>
<p>Secondly, financial limitations must be eased. The debt-laden climate finance structure must be revised. <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-finance-for-africa-the-key-challenges-and-what-needs-to-be-done-about-them-194150">Climate finance</a> for the most vulnerable countries is scarce and the application process is long and cumbersome when the opportunity arises. Climate finance should be need-based and practical to help the most vulnerable and bridge the chasm between financial need and supply. </p>
<p>In addition, development banks and donors need to champion and invest in the areas considered risky by private businesses. They need to lay the business foundations to make the sector attractive for private investments. In return, governments must adopt <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-hooked-on-fossil-fuels-how-it-got-here-and-how-it-can-get-out-193750">policies and strategies</a> that encourage private investments in solar, wind, and geothermal technologies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193692/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abay Yimere does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To address Africa’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels and hydropower, there is a need for investment in renewable energy sources like wind and solar.Abay Yimere, Postdoctoral Scholar in International Environment and Resource Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944892022-11-14T19:25:42Z2022-11-14T19:25:42ZEnding the climate crisis has one simple solution: Stop using fossil fuels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495050/original/file-20221114-21-ys48a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C174%2C8131%2C5292&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eighty-five per cent of our global CO2 emissions come from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Probst)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ending-the-climate-crisis-has-one-simple-solution--stop-using-fossil-fuels" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As COP27 unfolds in Egypt, we are hearing about a large array of climate change solutions, ranging from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/11/cop27-climate-change-solutions/">building with carbon-absorbing bamboo</a> and <a href="https://unctad.org/news/un-agencies-cop27-urge-action-tackle-impact-plastic-climate">using less plastic</a> to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/06/canadian-delegation-set-to-tell-cop27-about-oceans-role-in-fighting-climate-change.html">growing more kelp</a> in the oceans to retain its carbon stores and enhance biodiversity.</p>
<p>All of these ideas are important and could lead to positive environmental outcomes if successfully implemented. </p>
<p>However, as climate scientists we believe that they also have the potential to be dangerous distractions, drawing attention away from the three things we absolutely need to do to end the climate crisis: Stop burning coal, stop burning oil and stop burning natural gas. </p>
<p>Ending fossil fuel use is essential to end the climate crisis, and there is no alternative.</p>
<h2>A simple problem with a simple solution</h2>
<p>Global warming is fundamentally a very simple problem.</p>
<p>Human use of fossil fuels — whether in the form of coal, oil or natural gas — releases carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, making the Earth’s greenhouse effect stronger and increasing the Earth’s temperature. </p>
<p>The temperature rise, which has reached <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo3378">1.25 C and counting</a> will continue unless we stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere. The only way to achieve this is to end the use of coal, oil and natural gas.</p>
<p>Other solutions including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z">less deforestation</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn9668">more conserved and restored natural areas</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006895">better agricultural practices</a> could help to slow global warming. These would also have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0120">additional benefits</a> such as strenghtening biodiversity and increasing community resilience to climate impacts. </p>
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<img alt="A patch of deforested area with stacks of wood piled up" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495054/original/file-20221114-18-wuep2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Solutions like stopping deforestation can help slow down climate change, but not end it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andre Penner)</span></span>
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<p>Capturing and storing carbon may also eventually play a minor role in limiting the worst effects of climate change, but after decades of research we still don’t have a cost-effective strategy to put hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 back into the ground once the fossil fuels have been burned. </p>
<p>If we don’t end the use of fossil fuels, all of the rest adds up to little more than branches piled on the tracks in front of a runaway train. They might slow the train temporarily, but until we get inside the engine and shut off the throttle, the train will keep accelerating.</p>
<h2>It’s a big challenge, but not a complex one</h2>
<p>The solution to the climate crisis is not complex. But it is big. </p>
<p>The amount of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-hit-record-high-in-2022/#:%7E:text=">coal, oil and natural gas extracted from the Earth adds up to billions of tons per year</a>. So, shifting from fossil fuels to improved energy systems will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo3378">require efforts far beyond</a> what has so far been allocated to solving the climate problem. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar panels laid down in a large open area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495052/original/file-20221114-20-bvgnhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Replacing fossil fuels with carbon-free energy systems is the only way to solve the climate crisis we are in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>But “big” is not the same as “complex.” The term “complex” implies that we don’t really know what the solutions are or whether they will in fact work. Neither is true here: we know with absolute certainty that replacing fossil fuels with carbon-free energy systems would solve the climate problem. What’s more, it’s the only way to do so. </p>
<p>So far, we have failed to take the actions necessary to tackle this big, but simple, problem mainly because the problem has been made to appear complex.</p>
<p>Complexifying the nature of the climate problem has been a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/climate-crimes-oil-and-gas-environment">strategy of the fossil fuel industry</a> for decades, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/10/cop27-egypt-fossil-fuel/">fossil fuel lobbyists continue to push their agenda at COP27</a>. </p>
<p>For many years, the argument was that the climate system is complex and that maybe greenhouse gas emissions were not a problem. Today, this same guise of complexity is being used to propagate doubt on the efficacy of real solutions and to promote actions that will take us in the wrong direction. Even now, gas representatives at COP27 are suggesting that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/big-gas-chiefs-bill-themselves-climate-leaders-cop27-2022-11-14/">burning more natural gas</a> is part of the solution.</p>
<p>It is time we looked through this facade of complexity and get to work on the solutions that we know will work.</p>
<h2>Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty shows the way</h2>
<p>We do know what needs to be done. The <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org">Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty</a> is a promising step in the right direction. The treaty, which was launched at the New York Climate Action Week in 2020, called, at last, to stop the expansion of new fossil fuel development and manage a just transition away from coal, oil and gas to clean energy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-which-countries-will-push-to-end-fossil-fuel-production-and-which-wont-193471">COP27: Which countries will push to end fossil fuel production? And which won't?</a>
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<p>But we can’t stop there. We need to quickly move to shut down fossil fuel use altogether, by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108786713">replacing existing infrastructure</a> as quickly as possible with solar, wind and other non-fossil energy sources so that people can thrive in a safe climate future.</p>
<p>It’s time to look past the distractions and focus on the simple solution to the climate crisis. We need to stop burning coal, oil and natural gas. Our climate future depends on this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Galbraith receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Saying that the climate problem is complex is false, and a distraction from what we know needs to be done.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability, Concordia UniversityEric Galbraith, Professor of Earth Science and Canada Research Chair in Human-Earth System Dynamics, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.