tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/traffic-congestion-7152/articlesTraffic congestion – The Conversation2023-10-25T03:54:46Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159922023-10-25T03:54:46Z2023-10-25T03:54:46ZNational road-user charges are needed – and most people are open to it, our research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555716/original/file-20231025-23-x7jo6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5501%2C3667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/law/2023/oct/18/why-the-high-court-struck-out-victorias-ev-tax-and-the-ripple-effects-of-the-decision#:%7E:text=Victoria%20introduced%20a%20distance%2Dbased,2.3c%20for%20each%20kilometre.">High Court</a> ruled last week that Victoria’s road-user charge for electric vehicle (EV) drivers is unconstitutional. Because the court decided it’s an excise, only the <a href="https://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2023/HCA/30">Commonwealth</a> can now impose such a tax. </p>
<p>The Victorian government introduced the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-27/ombudsman-victoria-electric-vehicle-road-user-charge-unfair/102905834">controversial</a> distance-based charge in 2021. The court decision will likely derail similar <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/electric-vehicle-court-ruling-ups-pressure-for-federal-approach-20231018-p5ed55.html">plans by other states</a>. </p>
<p>Current road taxes are blunt instruments that don’t reflect the <a href="https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/newsroom/why-we-should-be-taxing-australian-drivers-differently">true costs of driving to society</a>. The fuel excise does not properly account for traffic congestion or emissions. It makes no allowance for people’s ability to pay. Car registration fees are also not related to the amount of travel, congestion or emissions produced by driving. </p>
<p>Hence the need for road-user charges. To understand public attitudes to such charges in Australia, we surveyed more than 900 people in Melbourne and Sydney. The results of <a href="https://imoveaustralia.com/education/phd-student-profile/tariq-munir/">this research</a> showed a good appetite for road taxation reform in the nation’s two largest cities. </p>
<p>Only about a third of respondents opposed road-user charges to reduce traffic congestion in their cities. And support increased when they were told the revenue would be used to improve traffic infrastructure and public transport. The findings offer insights into how road-user charging could be rolled out successfully across the nation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-good-the-high-court-overturned-victorias-questionable-ev-tax-but-theres-a-sting-in-the-tail-215985">It's good the High Court overturned Victoria's questionable EV tax. But there's a sting in the tail</a>
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<h2>What do people think about road-user charges?</h2>
<p>For our research, we surveyed a representative sample of 929 people (373 in Melbourne and 556 in Sydney) in April 2022 (Melbourne) and November 2022 (Sydney). </p>
<p>A majority of respondents (70% in Sydney and 65% in Melbourne) supported the introduction of measures to reduce traffic congestion in their respective cities. </p>
<p>When specifically asked if they would support road-user charges, only 32% of respondents in both cities opposed the idea. Around 29% of respondents in Sydney and 34% of respondents in Melbourne were undecided. </p>
<p>They were then told the revenue raised would be used to improve all forms of transport infrastructure and services. Levels of opposition and uncertainty fell. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Stacked bar chart showing percentages supporting, opposing or undecided about road-user charges depending on where revenue is invested." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In particular, respondents in both cities were most supportive of road-user charges if the revenue raised was used to improve public transport. Opposition fell to 20% in Sydney and to 23% in Melbourne. The percentage of undecided respondents fell to 24% in Sydney and to 30% in Melbourne. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pie charts show percentage of respondents supporting, opposing or undecided about road-user charges if revenue is spent on improving public transport" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Around 96% of respondents in Melbourne owned a private car, compared to 90% in Sydney. These cars were the main means of transport for most respondents (75% Melbourne, 64% Sydney). Average vehicle occupancy was 1.25 people per vehicle in Melbourne and 1.27 in Sydney. </p>
<p>Sydney had a higher proportion of public transport users (27% Sydney, 16% Melbourne). Around 7% of respondents in both cities preferred walking and <a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-tiny-vehicles-would-deny-us-smarter-ways-to-get-around-our-cities-113111">micro-mobility</a>, such as bikes and scooters, as their main means of getting around.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-high-court-decision-on-electric-vehicles-will-make-charging-for-road-use-very-difficult-216107">The High Court decision on electric vehicles will make charging for road use very difficult</a>
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<h2>Savings affect willingness to pay road-user charges</h2>
<p>We found willingness to pay a road-user charge varies with the level of expected savings. </p>
<p>Around 66% of respondents in both cities were willing to pay a road-user charge if it saved them up to $800 a year on registration fees and fuel taxes. Another 13% of respondents in Sydney and 11% in Melbourne were willing to pay the charge if savings exceeded $800 a year. </p>
<p>Around 55% of respondents in Sydney and 46% in Melbourne would be willing to pay a congestion charge if it cut their total daily travel times by 10 to 30 minutes. Another 18% of respondents in both cities would pay the charge if it cut travel times by more than 30 minutes. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jonas Eliasson, architect of Stockholm’s congestion pricing scheme, explains how subtly nudging just a small percentage of drivers to stay off major roads can end traffic jams.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-drivers-who-paid-victorias-electric-vehicle-tax-be-able-to-get-their-money-back-216021">Will drivers who paid Victoria's electric vehicle tax be able to get their money back?</a>
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<h2>Why oppose road-user charges?</h2>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12048">factors</a> influence public opposition to road-user charging. These include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856419313175">distrust</a> in governments, uncertainty about <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X10000326">benefits</a>, and concerns over <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9459-4">equity</a>. Other barriers include <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jat/2020/4242964/">understanding</a> how the scheme works, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X19307450">complexity</a> of implementation, and uncertainty about how <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X10000326">revenues</a> will be used.</p>
<p>In our survey, the undecided respondents said they needed more information to better understand the user-pays approach and its benefits. International <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12048">studies</a> have reported the same response. </p>
<p>Information campaigns to demystify road-user charging and highlight its benefits can win over undecided people. </p>
<h2>Road tax system is broken</h2>
<p>The road taxes in place today – which include fuel excise and motor vehicle ownership taxes – are near <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/no-choice-broken-taxes-must-be-fixed-20220210-p59vc7">breaking point</a>, according to political, policy and business leaders. <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-best-selling-electric-cars-so-far-in-2023">Soaring electric vehicle sales</a> will hasten the decline in fuel excise revenues. </p>
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<p>Victoria’s <a href="https://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/bills/zero-and-low-emission-vehicle-distance-based-charge-bill-2021">levy</a> of 2.8 cents for each kilometre travelled (2.3 cents for plug-in hybrids) was intended to raise revenue from drivers who don’t pay fuel excise. The High Court decision has prompted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/18/victoria-ev-tax-australia-state-taxes--revenue-electric-vehicles-cars-states-high-court-ruling">warnings</a> of major hits to state coffers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/tax-review-rudd-cautioned-on-road-user-charges-20100113-iw75b">Tax reviews</a>, peak bodies such as <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/project/research-transport-network-pricing/">Infrastructure Victoria</a> and experts have long called for road-user charges to replace current road taxes. </p>
<p>Aside from the decline in revenue, another problem with fuel excise is that drivers with different travel patterns pay the same tax. There will be drivers who travel in regional Victoria or in an outer suburb of Sydney for local shopping or school drop-offs who pay the same excise as a driver who travels into the city centre or other congested areas. This means fuel excise is less effective for reducing traffic congestion and emissions than road-user charges.</p>
<p>But to be effective and fair, these must be applied to all vehicles as part of a holistic national approach. It will help to manage travel demand, cut emissions and raise revenue to maintain transport infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/distance-based-road-charges-will-improve-traffic-and-if-done-right-wont-slow-australias-switch-to-electric-cars-150290">Distance-based road charges will improve traffic — and if done right won't slow Australia's switch to electric cars</a>
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<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>The High Court decision has placed road taxation reform squarely on the national agenda. But any road-user charging scheme that targets <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/treasurer-electric-car-tax-fuel-excise-revenue/">only electric vehicles</a> would be a missed opportunity for <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/worlds-worst-ev-policy-scrapped-by-high-court/">meaningful reform</a>.</p>
<p>Our survey findings show Australia is ready for a rational and transparent discussion about road-user charging on all vehicles, not only electric vehicles. </p>
<p>The findings show a majority of people would support such charges if they are transparent, equitable and replace or reduce other road taxes. Support would increase if the public is assured the revenue will be used to improve all transport infrastructure, not only roads. </p>
<p>If well planned and implemented, a national approach to road-user charges can raise enough revenue to replace the fuel excise tax. It will also ease congestion, promote sustainable transport and help achieve Australia’s targets for cutting transport emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hadi Ghaderi receives funding from the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, IVECO Trucks Australia limited, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Victoria Department of Education and Training, Bondi Laboratories, Australian Meat Processor Corporation, 460degrees and Passel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tariq Munir acknowledges the financial support received in the form of a PhD scholarship from Swinburne University and the government of Pakistan. He also acknowledges the PhD top-up scholarship received from the iMOVE CRC and supported by the Cooperative Research Centres program, an Australian government initiative.</span></em></p>Support for road-user charging strengthens when people are assured that revenue goes into reducing traffic congestion, maintaining transport infrastructure, improving public transport.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyHadi Ghaderi, Associate Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Swinburne University of TechnologyTariq Munir, PhD Candidate, Centre for Sustainable Infrastructure and Digital Construction, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122602023-08-31T20:01:04Z2023-08-31T20:01:04ZFewer of us are cycling – here’s how we can reverse the decline<p>Rates of cycling are falling in Australia, a national <a href="https://www.cwanz.com.au/national-walking-and-cycling-participation-survey-2023/">report</a> released today shows. More people started riding bikes early in the pandemic, but that hasn’t lasted. The percentages of people who cycle are lower now than in 2011.</p>
<p>Less than one in six Australians report riding a bicycle weekly. Just over one in three have ridden in the past year. </p>
<p>During the time of pandemic restrictions, when there was less other traffic on the road, people perhaps felt safer to ride. Creating streets that are less busy, noisy and easier to ride on and cross safely encourages more people to cycle and walk.</p>
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<p>Most people want to walk and ride more. <a href="https://irp.cdn-website.com/541aa469/files/uploaded/What_Australia_Wants_Report_.pdf">Two-thirds</a> of people want more transport funding to go into walking, cycling and public transport. </p>
<p>Even if you’re not interested in riding a bike, you should be worried about this decline. Walking and cycling are part of the solution to several of the most pressing issues facing our cities.</p>
<h2>The decline isn’t surprising</h2>
<p>The decline in cycling probably shouldn’t surprise us. In the past 40 years, the percentage of children who walk or ride to school has dropped from <a href="https://www.transport.wa.gov.au/mediaFiles/active-transport/AT_P_Declining_Rate_walking_cycling_to_school_in_Perth.pdf">75% to 25%</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, cycling receives only about <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">2%</a> of transport budgets. The United Nations Environment Program <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/17030/globalOutlookOnWalkingAndCycling.pdf">recommends 20%</a> of transport funding should go to “non-motorised transport”. </p>
<p>Most of our transport funding goes into building wider and longer roads, embedding car dependency. However, making it easier to drive leads to more driving and ultimately more congestion, an effect known as <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/tools-techniques/travel-demand-modelling/3-model">induced demand</a>. The problem even featured in <a href="https://twitter.com/BrentToderian/status/1192568535009988608?s=20">an episode</a> of the TV show Utopia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets</a>
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<h2>Short trips by car – everyone loses</h2>
<p>Most car journeys in Australian cities are <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/vista/viz/VISTA-TripsDraft/Trips-methodoftravel">short</a>. Two-thirds of these trips could be done by bike in <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/perth-active-transport-improvements">15 minutes or less</a>. </p>
<p>So, for example, of the 4.2 million daily car trips in Perth, <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/perth-active-transport-improvements">2.8 million are less than 5km</a>. In Victoria, about <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/vista/viz/VISTA-TripsDraft/Trips-methodoftravel">half of all trips under 2km</a> are driven – that’s more than 2 million a day. </p>
<p>These short car trips – such as the school drop-off, the short drive to the shops or the local park – are bad for public health, emissions and climate change, road safety and congestion. Walking and cycling can help solve all these problems. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Venn diagram showing intersection of cycling and walking with the problems of road safety, congestion, emissions and public health" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545706/original/file-20230831-26-jv0mnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">How cycling and walking intersect with the issues of road safety, congestion, emissions and public health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied (data from: 1. DCEEW, 2. AIHW, 3&4. Infrastructure Australia, 5. ISPAH).</span></span>
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<h2>Urban sprawl and car use have a high cost</h2>
<p>Urban sprawl makes it less appealing to walk and cycle to our destination, further entrenching car dependency. </p>
<p>Urban sprawl costs governments too. Last week, the New South Wales Productivity Commission <a href="https://www.productivity.nsw.gov.au/building-more-homes-where-infrastructure-costs-less">reported</a> building homes closer to the city centre, rather than in outer suburbs, can save up to A$75,000 in infrastructure costs. </p>
<p>The extra costs of building farther away include providing schools, roads, parks, water and wastewater infrastructure. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1696099433648382171"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-sprawl-is-not-a-dirty-word-if-the-priority-is-to-meet-all-kids-needs-it-should-be-208670">Urban sprawl is 'not a dirty word'? If the priority is to meet all kids' needs, it should be</a>
</strong>
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<hr>
<h2>3 transport priorities</h2>
<p>For people to walk and cycle, we need to provide so-called <a href="https://www.healthystreets.com/">healthy streets</a>: not too noisy, easy to cross, with clean air and where people feel safe. </p>
<p>In 2022, the <a href="https://aspactivity.org/">Asia-Pacific Society for Physical Activity</a> and cycling advocacy group <a href="https://www.weride.org.au/who-we-are/">We Ride Australia</a> proposed <a href="https://aspactivity.org/three-transport-priorities/">three transport priorities</a> for Australia supported by a national alliance of 13 public health, transport, education and climate organisations.</p>
<p><strong>1. Safer default speed limits</strong></p>
<p>The current default speed limit of 50km/h in built-up areas is unsafe and leads to many deaths and injuries each year. </p>
<p>Default 30km/h speed limits in built-up areas are an immediate <a href="https://theconversation.com/busted-5-myths-about-30km-h-speed-limits-in-australia-160547">low-cost</a> way to increase road safety.</p>
<p>Other countries are showing it can be done. For example, this month <a href="https://www.gov.wales/seven-things-you-may-not-know-about-wales-new-20mph-default-speed-limit">Wales</a> is set to adopt a default speed limit of 20 miles an hour (32km/h). </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/busted-5-myths-about-30km-h-speed-limits-in-australia-160547">Busted: 5 myths about 30km/h speed limits in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p><strong>2. 1,500m school zones</strong></p>
<p>Most students live <a href="https://www.activehealthykids.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/australia-report-card-progress-report-2015.pdf">within 3km</a> of their school. That’s less than a 10-minute bike ride or a 30-minute walk. </p>
<p>However, to boost walking and cycling to school, parents need to feel it’s safe for their children to do so. The solution is to create safe walking and cycling routes with <a href="https://bubblecane.wordpress.com/2021/02/06/priority-crossings-what-are-they/">pedestrian priority crossings</a> within 500–1,500m of schools. Streets along these routes are easy to cross and not too busy or noisy.</p>
<p><strong>3. E-bike subsidies</strong></p>
<p>Cutting carbon emissions to limit climate change and air pollution requires us to reduce private car use. Focusing <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/electric-vehicle-incentives-australia">purchase incentives</a> solely on electric cars in Australia is slowing down the race to zero emissions. Indeed, research shows cycling is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-is-ten-times-more-important-than-electric-cars-for-reaching-net-zero-cities-157163">ten times</a> more important than electric cars for achieving net-zero cities.</p>
<p>E-bikes assist the rider with pedalling, which makes them slightly faster than a regular bike. Typically e-bike users ride <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259019821930017X">greater distances</a> than regular push-bike users. </p>
<p>However, the upfront price of e-bikes is one of the main barriers to buying one.
Providing incentives for people to buy an e-bike would increase their uptake. Research shows a return on investment of <a href="https://www.weride.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/WeRide_e-Bike_Subsidy_Report_FINAL-lores.pdf">$2–$3</a> for every $1 spent on these incentives. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1639981043590545413"}"></div></p>
<h2>What else can we do?</h2>
<p>As well as the <a href="https://aspactivity.org/three-transport-priorities/">three transport priorities</a>, we can of course take many more actions that would help increase walking and cycling. These measures include: boosting <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-sprawl-is-not-a-dirty-word-if-the-priority-is-to-meet-all-kids-needs-it-should-be-208670">housing density</a>, <a href="https://www.streetlevelaustralia.org/">beautifying</a> our neighbourhoods, programs to build people’s confidence and skills to walk and cycle, such as <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/talks-courses-workshops/cycling-courses">beginners bike tours</a>, and more frequent public transport. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/12-best-ways-to-get-cars-out-of-cities-ranked-by-new-research-180642">12 best ways to get cars out of cities – ranked by new research</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By prioritising walking and cycling for short trips, Australia can reduce the national combined cost of $67 billion a year of <a href="https://www.nrspp.org.au/resources/summary-report-cost-road-trauma-australia/#:%7E:text=the%20total%20cost%20of%20road%20trauma%20is%20estimated%20at%20%2422.2,by%20road%20injury%20was%20%24239%2C000">traffic injuries and deaths</a>, <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Urban%20Transport%20Crowding%20and%20Congestion.pdf">traffic congestion</a>, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=cce3914b-82a3-433b-97f6-be0642f692f6&subId=658630#:%7E:text=Air%20pollution%20is%20already%20a,to%20%2424%20billion%20per%20year">air pollution</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31390112/">physical inactivity</a>. </p>
<p>Here are four actions you can take to help boost walking and cycling in your area:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>look for opportunities where you can walk, wheel or cycle short journeys</p></li>
<li><p>join a community-led coalition, such as <a href="https://www.betterstreets.org.au/">Better Streets</a></p></li>
<li><p>score your local neighbourhood for walkability using this <a href="https://walking.heartfoundation.org.au/uploads/pdf-files/Neighbourhood-walkability-checklist.pdf">tool</a></p></li>
<li><p>write to your local MP asking for the <a href="https://aspactivity.org/three-transport-priorities/">three transport priorities</a> to be adopted.</p></li>
</ol><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212260/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew 'Tepi' Mclaughlin receives research funding from the Australian Government's Medical Research Future Fund and The Government of Western Australia's Healthway. He also receives salary support through the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course. He is a member of the Asia-Pacific Society for Physical Activity and a member of the Active Transport Advisory Group of Westcycle. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter McCue receives an Australian Postgraduate Research Award to study a PhD. He is a member of the Executive Committee and Chair of the Advocacy Committee of the Asia-Pacific Society for Physical Activity.</span></em></p>Early in the pandemic, when there was much less traffic on the roads, people took to their bikes. But since then, fewer people are cycling, with rates now lower than in 2011.Matthew Mclaughlin, Adjunct Research Fellow, The University of Western AustraliaPeter McCue, PhD Candidate, School of Population Health, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064322023-06-23T14:49:09Z2023-06-23T14:49:09ZAre low-traffic neighbourhoods greenwashing? Here’s what the evidence says<p>Since the pandemic, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/12/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-ltn-may-lead-people-drive-less-london">series of low-traffic neighbourhoods</a> (LTNs) have been installed across the UK. LTNs are designed to curtail car use in residential streets and promote active modes of travel such as walking, cycling and travelling by wheelchair. They aim to create a more pleasant environment for pedestrians and cyclists by using cameras, planting boxes or bollards to restrict motor vehicle traffic.</p>
<p>The initiative aims to address <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/egnmj/">three public health issues</a> directly associated with rampant car use in urban areas: air pollution, road deaths and physical inactivity. Human-made air pollution – which is worse in congested cities – is linked to between <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-pollution-applying-all-our-health/air-pollution-applying-all-our-health#:%7E:text=The%20annual%20mortality%20of%20human,and%2036%2C000%20deaths%20every%20year.">28,000 and 36,000 deaths</a> in the UK each year. </p>
<p>The concept of LTNs in the UK can be traced back to the 1970s when a <a href="http://hackneycyclist.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-history-behind-filtered.html">similar scheme</a> (although not referred to as an LTN at the time) was introduced in the London borough of Hackney. Many of the UK’s more recent LTNs are concentrated in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692321002477?via%3Dihub">deprived areas of London</a>, with low rates of car ownership. </p>
<p>By contrast, similar schemes have been more widely adopted <a href="https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/3000/3187">in the Netherlands</a>, where active travel has been separated from car traffic consistently since the 1970s.</p>
<p>But LTNs have become controversial in the UK. Critics have even gone as far as <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/low-traffic-zones-just-greenwashing-says-lobby-group-jvck33c69">accusing the government</a> of greenwashing. They <a href="https://freedomfordrivers.blog/2023/02/23/new-petition-remove-ltns-and-greenwash-traffic-schemes/">argue that</a> LTNs cause more congestion and air pollution on boundary roads (usually larger roads around the perimeter of an LTN), longer emergency response times and increased travel times for disabled people or carers. </p>
<p>Since most LTNs are relatively recent and have been predominantly installed in London, there is limited information on their long-term effects and impacts beyond the capital. </p>
<p>Yet the existing evidence still offers a clearer understanding of how LTNs can positively impact various aspects of urban life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A queue of traffic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Critics argue that LTNs cause congestion on surrounding roads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/blackfriars-london-uk-11th-june-2014-597895856">Lenscap Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fewer cars, more active travel</h2>
<p>Some studies suggest that LTNs are effective in reducing car usage. <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/75470-the-impact-of-2020-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-on-levels-of-car-van-driving-among-residents-findings-from-lambeth-london-uk">Recent research</a> on four LTNs in the south London borough of Lambeth that was co-authored by one of us (Jamie Furlong), found that the annual distance residents within these LTNs drove decreased by 6% compared to control areas.</p>
<p>This finding supports <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/13Nsm_GFdH6CpIpPpOZ7hbhLZScgqCAP7ZGI0xi4qDqA/edit">previous research</a> commissioned by climate action charity, Possible, that examined traffic data from 46 LTNs across 11 London boroughs. The analysis revealed a substantial reduction in motor traffic within LTNs compared to the expected background changes. Importantly, there was no evidence of traffic being systematically displaced onto boundary roads. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4133090">separate study</a> by researchers from Imperial College London on three LTNs in the London borough of Islington showed notable improvements in air quality after their installation. On average, levels of nitrogen dioxide (a harmful car exhaust pollutant) decreased by 5.7% within the LTNs and 8.9% on boundary roads. </p>
<p>LTNs have demonstrated several other benefits beyond reduced car usage. In London, they have even been associated with decreased car ownership and <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/25633-impacts-of-2020-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-in-london-on-road-traffic-injuries">improved road safety</a>. Between 2015 and 2019, rates of car ownership in outer London LTNs <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/18200-the-impact-of-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-and-other-active-travel-interventions-on-vehicle-ownership-findings-from-the-outer-london-mini-holland-progr">reduced by 6%</a> relative to control areas.</p>
<p>Evidence on the shift to active travel prompted by LTNs is more limited. However, a <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/21390-the-impact-of-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-on-active-travel-car-use-and-perceptions-of-local-environment-during-the-covid-19-pandemic">study funded by Transport for London</a> on LTNs that pre-dated COVID in London’s Waltham Forest, found a 1-2 hour increase per person in weekly active travel compared to the control area. </p>
<h2>What about the concerns?</h2>
<p>One criticism of LTNs relates to the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/traffic-calming-zones-london-delay-fire-crews-xmplwxp38">potential delays</a> they can cause for emergency services. Videos have surfaced online showing fire engines and ambulances unable to get past bollards or planting boxes. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/18198-the-impact-of-introducing-a-low-traffic-neighbourhood-on-fire-service-emergency-response-times-in-waltham-forest-london">only published academic study</a> on the topic, which examined the impact of LTNs on fire service emergency response times in Waltham Forest, found no negative effects. In fact, response times even improved slightly on some boundary roads. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A fire engine driving down a road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concerns have been raised about the delays LTNs cause to emergency services.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-september-30-2019-emergency-1519146149">olesea vetrila/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from Barcelona</h2>
<p>How residents feel about LTNs and their streets is crucial to the success of these schemes. In both <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/london-council-scraps-seven-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-after-public-backlash/">Ealing</a> (a district of west London) and <a href="https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/23600038.low-traffic-neighbourhood-westy-will-removed/">Warrington</a> (a town in northern England), councils removed LTNs after the objection of residents.</p>
<p>The fact that relatively few of the UK’s more recent LTNs have <a href="https://twitter.com/hackneycouncil/status/1554765517843570689">altered street layouts</a> to encourage new uses by, for example, widening pavements and turning car parking spaces into public seating may be part of the issue. If LTNs were implemented with a stronger focus on urban design and physical changes to the streetscape, they could have a potentially transformative effect on how people feel about and use residential streets.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/superilles/en/">“superblocks”</a> initiative (city blocks where pedestrians and cyclists are prioritised over motorised vehicles) in Barcelona is a good example of such an approach. Following the implementation of the city’s Sant Antoni superblock, <a href="https://bcnroc.ajuntament.barcelona.cat/jspui/handle/11703/129164">research</a> found a 33% reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions, an 82% reduction in traffic within the superblock and a 28% increase in public space to walk and play in. </p>
<p>During trial phases, various features were incorporated into Barcelona’s neighbourhoods, including coloured pavements, mobile tree planters and pop-up playgrounds. In the <a href="https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/superilles/ca/content/poblenou">Poblenou superblock</a>, the final design of street changes resulted from two weeks of <a href="https://bcnroc.ajuntament.barcelona.cat/jspui/handle/11703/129164">laboratories and debates</a> involving residents, council officers, political representatives and more than 200 students and teachers from different schools of architecture.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A low-traffic neighbourhood with curbside seating and colourful decoration." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sant Antoni superblock, Barcelona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Furlong</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, the future of LTNs hangs in the balance due to a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/19/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-no-government-money/">shaky funding base</a>. But this development is accompanied by a climate emergency that demands swift and decisive action. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jamie Furlong receives funding from TfL for a related project analysing behaviour change and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods. He also receives funding, as part of a team at Westminster University, from the National Institute for Health and Care Research for a project examining the effects of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ersilia Verlinghieri, as part of a team at Westminster University, receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research for a project examining the effects of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrie Larrington-Spencer, as part of a team at Westminster University, receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research for a project examining the effects of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London.</span></em></p>LTNs were introduced to UK cities to create a more pleasant environment for pedestrians and cyclists - but they’ve become controversial.Jamie Furlong, Research Fellow in Active Travel Interventions, University of WestminsterErsilia Verlinghieri, Senior Research Fellow at the Active Travel Academy, University of WestminsterHarrie Larrington-Spencer, Research Fellow in the Active Travel Academy, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049202023-05-05T01:03:55Z2023-05-05T01:03:55ZBus rapid transit can avoid traffic chaos for the AFL’s new stadium and transform Hobart – and other cities too<p>Following a decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/devils-in-the-detail-an-economist-argues-the-case-for-a-tasmanian-afl-team-and-new-stadium-204678">fund an AFL stadium</a> on Hobart’s waterfront, the <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/ferries-and-rapid-bus-rapid-transit-to-get-people-to-and-from-macquarie-point">Tasmanian premier announced</a> plans for a new bus rapid transit (BRT) system and ferry services to avoid traffic congestion. These plans are linked to Hobart’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-name-new-look-for-latest-national-urban-policy-but-same-old-problem-59084">City Deal</a> and promise to reinvigorate the city’s ailing public transport system.</p>
<p>Hobart once led transport innovation. It was the first city in the southern hemisphere with an electric <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-21/curious-what-happened-to-hobart-trams/9150104">tram system</a>. At its peak, these trams handled 40% of journeys in the city. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, though, following the closure of Hobart’s last passenger rail service, the city’s public transport network has suffered from dwindling investment and patronage (now under 5% of journeys). Could bus rapid transit help combat the city’s notorious <a href="https://theconversation.com/growth-pains-and-gridlock-come-to-hobart-and-building-more-roads-is-not-the-best-way-out-92258">car dependence</a>?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/growth-pains-and-gridlock-come-to-hobart-and-building-more-roads-is-not-the-best-way-out-92258">Growth pains and gridlock come to Hobart, and building more roads is not the best way out</a>
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<h2>What is bus rapid transit?</h2>
<p>Bus rapid transit systems typically run buses along dedicated corridors, taking the bus out of traffic. They can be highly effective people-movers. Many such systems have achieved passenger capacities comparable to light rail. </p>
<p>For example, bus rapid transit systems move more than <a href="https://use.metropolis.org/case-studies/transmilenio-bus-rapid-transit-system">40,000 passengers per hour</a> in Bogota, Colombia, and around 20,000 in Brisbane. The vehicles are no ordinary bus – they can carry nearly 200 passengers in comfort. </p>
<p>Modern <a href="https://www.urban-transport-magazine.com/en/56-ordered-electric-bi-articulated-buses-for-greater-paris/">articulated electric BRT vehicles</a> provide a similar ride experience to light rail. And bus rapid transit stations have the look and feel of rail stations.</p>
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<img alt="A rapid bus transit station next to lanes of traffic in Bogota, Colombia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524306/original/file-20230504-22-8hro6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The rapid bus transit system in Bogota, Colombia, can carry 40,000 passengers an hour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Is this system a better choice than light rail?</h2>
<p>A key question some Hobart residents are asking is why the Tasmanian government has chosen bus over light rail. A major reason is the cost-effectiveness of this sort of bus system. A state government-funded <a href="https://www.hobartcitydeal.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/271707/Northern_Suburbs_Transit_Corridor_Transport_Mode_Study_Final_Summary_Report.PDF">report</a> estimated the construction cost of Hobart’s rapid bus transit system at A$445 million, versus $596 million for light rail. </p>
<p>Recognising that these are pre-COVID numbers, costs will now be much higher. For example, while Canberra’s light rail cost $675 million, the cost of stage 3 of the Gold Coast light rail has blown out from around $600 million to $1.2 billion. </p>
<p>Bus rapid transit vehicles also cost less, but their passenger capacities are comparable to light rail vehicles. The Canberra light rail vehicle can carry 207 passengers. Brisbane’s Metro rapid transit bus will have a capacity of 150-180 people.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cities-planning-to-spend-billions-on-light-rail-should-look-again-at-what-buses-can-do-156844">Why cities planning to spend billions on light rail should look again at what buses can do</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The benefits of bus rapid transit for fighting congestion.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>How do we ensure it works in Hobart?</h2>
<p>Research has identified <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/report-research-perspectives-merits-light-rail-vs-bus-prof-graham-currie">several important principles</a> that need to be met if the new Hobart bus system is to be effective. These include reliable, high-frequency services, effective station design, quality station amenities, ride quality and passenger experience.</p>
<p>Investing in quality infrastructure will be essential. As Brisbane’s busway has shown, it is vital that buses coming into a station don’t clog up the corridor when passengers alight. Station designs must allow room for multiple vehicles, with by-pass lanes around stations to allow express services to continue unimpeded. </p>
<p>The vehicles must have multiple doors so passengers can get on and off quickly.</p>
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<p>As <a href="https://australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2013_currie_burke.pdf">research on Melbourne’s tram system shows</a>, if public transport gets stuck in traffic, patronage will suffer. That’s because the system is then slower (average 15 kilometres per hour) than taking a car and much more unreliable. </p>
<p>For this reason, the new bus rapid transit system must have its own dedicated corridor and not share intersections with other traffic – or else traffic lights must give priority to the buses. <a href="https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1282&context=jpt">Research shows</a> this will enable the vehicle to increase its average speed to more than 50km/h (maximum 80km/h). Because the Gold Coast light rail does not have a dedicated corridor for parts of its route, its average operating speed is only 27km/h.</p>
<p>The passenger experience will also be crucial for the system’s success. <a href="https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1286&context=mti_publications">Research shows</a> passengers have a low tolerance for waiting around and having to transfer between routes and to other transit modes (such as ferries). </p>
<p>Experience elsewhere also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.012">shows</a> it is important that passengers get tickets at the station, not on the bus. A ticketing system that allows seamless transfer between bus rapid transit, regular buses and ferries will be vital to maximise efficient travel. It’s also important to design stations and vehicles to provide universal access, so everyone can use the new system.</p>
<h2>Rapid bus transit has broader impacts too</h2>
<p>The impacts of bus rapid transit on a city are broader than transport. It has important <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X22003393">land-use planning benefits</a>. A well-designed system can increase housing densities and thus improve housing options, including affordable housing, along the corridor. </p>
<p>A bus rapid transit network can also connect people with jobs, education, healthcare, childcare and recreation opportunities. Councils along the new transit corridor in Hobart will need to protect adjoining land from speculative investment to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2019.1649316">manage gentrification</a>. They will also have to develop sound design guidelines to steer desirable types of development, such as medium-density neighbourhoods – the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/becoming-more-urban-attitudes-to-medium-density-living-are-changing-in-sydney-and-melbourne-84693">missing middle</a>”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-want-and-need-more-housing-choice-its-about-time-governments-stood-up-to-deliver-it-122390">People want and need more housing choice. It's about time governments stood up to deliver it</a>
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<p>Bus rapid transit is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2017.1301594">emerging as a very viable way</a> to deliver quality transport solutions for cities. It’s especially suitable for those with limited resources, such as smaller cities and those in the developing world. While Hobart’s bus rapid transit is explicitly linked to the new stadium, cities like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.2012.00626.x">Barcelona</a> have shown such urban revitalisation investment can have transformative benefits for cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Byrne receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is an ARC Future Fellow, working on green-space and thermal inequity. Jason is also a recipient of a Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Grant, assessing exposure to extreme heat events in Launceston and Hobart, Tasmania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Currie receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The chair of public transport is funded by Government and transport authorities in Victoria to provide independent advice on improving public transport systems. He is also a researcher and advisor on transport systems development in every State and Territory of Australia and many overseas authorities.</span></em></p>Bus rapid transit is more than a way to get thousands of people to the game. Used in cities globally as an alternative to light rail, it can be a cost-effective way to transform cities for the better.Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaGraham Currie, Professor of Public Transport, Director Public Transport Research Group, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1934372022-11-29T13:33:58Z2022-11-29T13:33:58ZStill recovering from COVID-19, US public transit tries to get back on track<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492863/original/file-20221101-25191-x6w1v8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5615%2C3724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ridership on public transit had been declining even before the spread of the virus.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/elevated-subway-train-and-new-york-city-skyline-royalty-free-image/1216197405?phrase=new%20york%20city%20subway%20train&adppopup=true">Leo Patrizi/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>U.S. commuters take approximately <a href="https://www.apta.com/news-publications/public-transportation-facts/">10 billion trips on public transit every year</a>. SciLine asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gkID6ccAAAAJ&hl=en">Kari Watkins</a>, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California, Davis, what cities can do to increase public transportation ridership and how people can make better use of this environmentally friendly mode of transportation.</em></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Kari Watkins discusses why public transit matters to communities throughout the United States.</span></figcaption>
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<p><em>Below are some highlights from the discussion. Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.</em></p>
<p><strong>Why is transit a sustainable mode of transportation?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Kari Watkins:</strong> Economically, it’s <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/tranben.pdf">easier on people’s pocketbooks</a>. Environmentally, transit has <a href="https://www.transit.dot.gov/regulations-and-programs/environmental-programs/transit-and-sustainability">less emissions per trip</a>. </p>
<p>From an equity point of view, transit is more sustainable than other modes because you’re <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26264/racial-equity-addendum-to-critical-issues-in-transportation">more able to serve all people</a>. This service is out there – you don’t have to afford a vehicle in order to be able to take it.</p>
<p><strong>How does public transit affect traffic congestion?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Kari Watkins:</strong> We save about 24% of our congestion levels <a href="https://static.tti.tamu.edu/tti.tamu.edu/documents/umr/archive/mobility-report-2012.pdf">by having transit in our 15 largest cities</a>. </p>
<p><strong>What has research shown us about transit’s safety?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Kari Watkins:</strong> Transit is the <a href="https://www.apta.com/news-publications/public-transportation-facts/">safest mode of transportation</a> because of the professional drivers and because of the nature of how the services are provided. They’re often in their own corridors with really, really high factors of safety in how those corridors are designed. </p>
<p>When we look at cities where more people take transit as opposed to driving themselves, we always have lower crash rates, both internationally and across the U.S.</p>
<p><strong>What are some trends of ridership on public transit systems in recent years?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Kari Watkins:</strong> Over the past approximately five years before COVID, we were <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26320/recent-decline-in-public-transportation-ridership-analysis-causes-and-responses">seeing declines in both bus and rail</a> in ways that we had not seen before and could not be attributed to things like population decreases or lower employment rates. We saw declines that could be largely attributed to the rideshare companies. Uber and Lyft were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2022.04.006">taking a pretty heavy toll on transit ridership</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to this, before COVID, low <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m">gas prices were a factor</a>. When gas prices go down, transit ridership is going to go down. And a little bit of increases in fares on transit systems was also hitting transit ridership. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-POLICY-BRIEF-Transit-Ridership-09.28.2022.pdf">And then COVID hit</a>. </p>
<p>What happened during COVID was a lot of the people who rely on transit on a day-to-day basis – those critical workers, folks who were keeping our society going during the early parts of COVID – they still had to get to work. And many of those folks are bus riders as opposed to rail riders, because of the way we’ve set up these systems. And so we saw bus ridership decline, but it was still at significant portions of what it was before COVID. </p>
<p>Rail, <a href="https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/transit-ridership-dropped-heavy-rail-stations-during-covid-19-pandemic-ridership-change-depended-neighborhood-characteristics">on the other hand, was decimated</a>, especially commuter rail. </p>
<p>Most commuter rail agencies are even still today nowhere close to what they were pre-COVID. In the early days of the pandemic, they were at 10% <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-POLICY-BRIEF-Transit-Ridership-09.28.2022.pdf">of the ridership levels that they once were</a>. </p>
<p>We’re seeing some agencies, like Los Angeles Metro, where they’re predicting that in the next year or two, they’re going to be back up to the levels that they were pre-COVID. But there’s a lot of cities that have been permanently hit, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/la-looks-to-beat-new-york-back-to-pre-pandemic-transit-ridership#xj4y7vzkg">such as San Francisco and New York</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Why are some transit agencies facing a ‘fiscal cliff’?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Kari Watkins:</strong> What happened during COVID was that many of these agencies were rescued through government programs where <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57636">they got extra operating funds</a> because the federal government and state governments knew that these agencies were going to be facing such dramatic declines in ridership that they wouldn’t be able to provide their services without some sort of extra support. </p>
<p>But all of that extra operating funding is disappearing over time. And with some agencies, they expect it’ll last another year, maybe two, but they’re not sure if their ridership is projected to be back at the same levels that it once was.</p>
<p><strong>How could transit become more environmentally friendly?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Kari Watkins:</strong> There’s actually a lot that can be done to our system <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/five-transit-policies-cities-should-prioritize-to-become-more-sustainable/">if we electrify transit further</a>. For decades, we’ve had transit lines that had overhead systems to power it, or a third rail system, where it’s powered from underneath, like our subway systems. </p>
<p>All of those are really expensive to build. But battery technology that is <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-new-batteries-that-will-make-you-an-electric-car-believer/">coming around for our passenger vehicles</a> is also coming around and <a href="https://www.reliableplant.com/Read/27709/Electric-bus-of-future">improving greatly for larger-scale vehicles</a>, such as trucks and buses. This gives us the ability to start to electrify routes that are running on pavement in streets. The hang-up is simply that we have to run these routes for an entire day and the window to charge them is just a small window overnight.</p>
<p><em>Watch the <a href="https://sciline.org/social-sciences/public-transit/">full interview</a> to hear more about public transit.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.sciline.org/">SciLine</a> is a free service based at the nonprofit American Association for the Advancement of Science that helps journalists include scientific evidence and experts in their news stories.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kari Edison Watkins is an Associate Professor for the University of California at Davis and has received funding from the US Department of Transportation, the Transportation Research Board, the National Science Foundation, and multiple state and local agencies. </span></em></p>Public buses, subways and trains are relatively safe, fast and cheap. But competition from rideshares and concerns over COVID-19 will soon see some local agencies short of funds.Kari Edison Watkins, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1733882021-12-09T10:44:59Z2021-12-09T10:44:59ZCycle lanes blamed for urban congestion – here’s the reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436501/original/file-20211208-23-t1wcy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5699%2C3782&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bicycle-traffic-lights-london-734928964">Patrick Shutterstock/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The average driver in London spent 148 hours in traffic jams in 2021 – twice the national average, according to <a href="https://inrix.com/scorecard/">a new report</a> by Inrix, a firm that analyses road traffic. These findings prompted <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59559863">a BBC story</a> that attributed London’s new supposed status as the world’s most congested city to <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2020/december/major-boost-for-london-s-cycling-network">an increase in cycle lanes</a>, implemented throughout the capital to maintain socially distanced travel during the pandemic. This analysis would seem to overlook the fact that congestion during 2021 was about the same as it was in 2019, before the pandemic. </p>
<p>To make sense of what is happening, we need to remember that the amount of time available to each of us constrains the amount we can travel. There are many things we need to fit into 24 hours, and on average, people spend just an hour <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03081060.2020.1851445">on the move</a>. This limits the build-up of congestion in cities.</p>
<p>Road traffic congestion happens when there is a high density of people and high car ownership and not enough road space for all the car trips that might be made. If traffic volumes grow for any reason, delays increase and some people who might otherwise drive make other choices instead. They might travel at a different time or take another route, use an alternative mode like the bus, change their destination and go to a different shopping centre, for example, or decide not to travel at all, by shopping online for instance. </p>
<p>If road space is taken away from cars to create cycle or bus lanes, then congestion will initially increase. But the additional delays will prompt some drivers to make other arrangements, and congestion will revert to what it had been.</p>
<p>The overall effect is to reduce the share of trips by car. This is <a href="https://content.tfl.gov.uk/travel-in-london-report-13.pdf">what has been happening</a> in London for many years as the population has grown and as there has been large investment in public transport. Private transport use fell from 48% in 2000 to 37% in 2019, while public transport use grew from 27% to 36% over the same period. Cycling increased from 1.2% to 2.4% while walking held steady at 25%. </p>
<p>The London mayor’s transport strategy aims to cut private transport use to <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/mayors-transport-strategy-2018.pdf">20% of all trips by 2041</a>. This would probably diminish the total amount of traffic congestion, although not necessarily its intensity at peak times in the busiest areas.</p>
<h2>The limits of cycle lanes</h2>
<p>Creating cycles lanes reduces the space available for cars but does not get people out of cars. Copenhagen is a city famous for cycling, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-uk-cycling-and-walking-revolution-wont-reduce-car-travel-144689">28% of journeys</a> made by bike. Yet car traffic is only slightly less than in London. Aside from cycling, the other big difference is that public transport accounts for only half the proportion of trips compared with London. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cyclists on a road in Copenhagen city centre." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436503/original/file-20211208-68670-y7w87k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Copenhagen has some of the highest urban cycling rates in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copenhagen-one-most-bicycle-friendly-cities-337279727">S-F/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The experience of Copenhagen shows that people can be persuaded off of buses and onto bikes, which are cheaper, healthier, better for the environment and no slower in congested traffic. Yet buses are an efficient way of using road space to move people in urban areas. Replacing their diesel engines with electric or hydrogen propulsion could cut carbon emissions, too. Getting drivers out of cars and onto bicycles has proved more difficult, even in Copenhagen, a small, flat city with excellent cycling infrastructure and a strong cycling culture.</p>
<p>Across a range of European cities, there are diverse patterns of journeys by different travel modes, reflecting the history, geography, size and population density of each place. But there are no major cities with high levels of <a href="https://epub.wupperinst.org/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/7033/file/7033_Living_Moving_Breathing.pdf">both cycling and public transport</a>. The prospects for a substantial increase in cycling in London are far from certain given the relatively high level of past public transport use. Still, the very act of creating cycle lanes reduces road space for cars, regardless of the extent to which these lanes are used.</p>
<p>COVID has had a major impact on public transport use in London, with bus and tube journeys still at <a href="https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMjZjMmQwYTktZjYxNS00MTIwLTg0ZjAtNWIwNGE0ODMzZGJhIiwidCI6IjFmYmQ2NWJmLTVkZWYtNGVlYS1hNjkyLWEwODljMjU1MzQ2YiIsImMiOjh9">70-75% of pre-pandemic levels</a>. The financial shortfall may mean Transport for London has to <a href="https://www.onlondon.co.uk/transport-for-london-prepares-for-managed-decline-of-network-as-government-fails-to-engage-on-funding/">reduce services</a>, unless the government offers more support.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks down an empty escalator on the London Underground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436502/original/file-20211208-17-6hcvti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public transport use may take a while to fully recover from the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-england-june-8-2020-underground-1756044071">Chaz Bharj/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Further investment in new rail routes, both tube and overground, would not be possible in these circumstances. Investment in cycling infrastructure would then make the most sense for reducing car use in London, both by encouraging cycling as an alternative and by lessening the scope for people to drive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173388/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>London was rated 2021’s most congested city.David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1726672021-12-03T14:42:32Z2021-12-03T14:42:32ZGovernment must back UK train travel or risk long-term retreat to cars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435326/original/file-20211202-19469-lqcvxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jon Fitton/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s no doubt that the UK’s railways have been hit hard by the pandemic. <a href="https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2024/station-usage-2020-21-statistical-release.pdf">Recent figures</a> from the Office of Rail and Road show a huge drop in passenger numbers, from April 2020 to March 2021. Over that period numbers fell at some previously busy stations like London Waterloo, by 86%. While numbers at Stratford, in east London, (the UK’s busiest station) fell by 67%. </p>
<p>Passenger numbers did rise over the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic">summer of 2021</a> but the latest government statistics show rail use overall was at about 65-70% of pre-pandemic levels. This overall drop contrasts with the steady growth in rail use <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/942425/rail-factsheet-2020.pdf">seen before COVID</a>, with journeys doubling from 1994-2018. Now, with the announcement of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59501192">the omicron</a> variant, some people may shift away from public transport again.</p>
<p>Until train use recovers, a new approach to rail funding is needed. The UK government and devolved administrations must provide more funding and support for rail services and investment, or see long-term increased car use, increased carbon emissions and increased congestion. </p>
<p>Other countries are already revising their rail policies – for example the new German government coalition <a href="https://www.railwaygazette.com/policy/new-era-as-german-coalition-prioritises-rail-spending-over-road/60398.article%20">is committed</a> to investing more on rail than road, and the Austrian government has introduced a <a href="https://www.klimaticket.at/en/%20">“climate ticket”</a>, giving access to all public transport. </p>
<h2>Post-pandemic travel</h2>
<p>The problem for the UK is that commuters are not coming back – at least not five days a week. Working from home, or hybrid working, is now established. <a href="https://wiserd.ac.uk/sites/default/files/documents/Homeworking%20in%20the%20UK_Report_Final_3.pdf">One study showed</a> that nearly 90% of those who worked at home during lockdowns wanted to continue to do so, at least some of the time. These people were concentrated in London and the south east and in more highly paid office jobs in city centres – precisely the people who have been the backbone of rail commuting in the past. </p>
<p>One global estimate suggests a 20% reduction in business travel while other <a href="https://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/10131041/Covid-19-travel-segmentation-8-31-October-analysis.pdf">research</a> highlights people being worried about travelling on crowded trains and buses with others and have switching to cars (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/942425/rail-factsheet-2020.pdf">government statistics</a> show that car traffic is almost back to pre-pandemic levels).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A traffic jam." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435328/original/file-20211202-13-1ke0j4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If train services are cut it’s likely that traffic jams will continue to rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MagicBones/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even before COVID, the British model of running and funding the railways was under pressure. Privatisation has been highly controversial – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0155998214000416#bibl0005">critics</a> have commented on the extra costs and poor service, and argued for <a href="https://www.transportforqualityoflife.com/u/files/120630_Rebuilding_Rail_Final_Report_print_version.pdf">reform</a>. Stung by poor timetabling and other problems in 2018, the UK government accepted the need for reform. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/great-british-railways-williams-shapps-plan-for-rail">Williams-Shapps plan for rail</a> proposed major restructuring, with a new “Great British Railways” contracting companies to run services, managing the infrastructure and conducting long-term planning.</p>
<p>This restructuring may cut the costs of running the railways, but it is unlikely to make up lost revenue. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hs2-leeds-branch-cancelled-what-will-this-mean-for-the-north-of-england-expert-qanda-172177">HS2 Leeds branch cancelled: what will this mean for the north of England? – expert Q&A</a>
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<p>There are various choices the government might make. One is cuts in services, from pre-pandemic levels. For example, there has been a <a href="https://www.southwesternrailway.com/plan-my-journey/timetables/timetable-consultation-december-2022">consultation</a> on the future of services for South Western Railways, which says demand is not coming back so services must be slimmed down. This resulted in a furious <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/london/comments/p4698k/south_western_railway_swr_december_2022_timetable/">backlash</a> from passengers. Some immediate <a href="https://fosbr.org.uk/plans-to-cut-bristol-to-waterloo-service/">cuts</a> have been announced for the Bristol to London Waterloo service via Salisbury.</p>
<p>Another recent government decision is to trim back the plan for more high speed rail in the north of England, again with major <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/northern-powerhouse-rail-backlash-descends-into-blame-game-as-more-scaled-back-plans-emerge-1304337">public opposition</a>. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-the-midlands">government has</a> abandoned one leg of its high-speed rail link (HS2).</p>
<p>Even the promised £96bn of rail investment is subject to “individual schemes proceeding subject to future approval at key gateways to ensure ongoing control of costs and value for money”. The lines which have already been scrapped would have created extra capacity for passengers and freight. It is as yet unclear whether the new plans will provide any extra capacity to allow growth.</p>
<p>Increased rail fares are also on the horizon - the government has continued with above-inflation fare increases (RPI+1%), with <a href="https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/08/train-passengers-could-be-hit-with-the-largest-fare-rises-in-a-d/">more to come</a>. This contrasts with continued freezing of fuel duty for road transport and <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/budget-2021-air-passenger-duty-cut-uk-domestic-flights-taxes-cop26-climate-summit-1270580">cutting air passenger duty</a> on domestic flights.</p>
<h2>Climate change risk</h2>
<p>Transport is the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957887/2019_Final_greenhouse_gas_emissions_statistical_release.pdf">biggest source</a> of UK carbon emissions. Researchers <a href="https://covid19transas.org/at-a-crossroads-travel-adaptations-during-covid-19-restrictions-and-where-next/">argue</a> that what is needed is to cut the miles people drive as well as a transition to zero emission vehicles. So <a href="https://www.creds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/CREDS-Shifting-the-focus-July2019.pdf#page=47">reducing demand for road transport</a> is critical. </p>
<p>While a lot of travel is short distance, the <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/Professor%20Jillian%20Anable%20and%20Professor%20Greg%20Marsden.pdf">small number of longer journeys</a> account for a large proportion of carbon emissions from surface transport. Rail can play an important role in providing an alternative to car use for these longer journeys – pre-pandemic it <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-travel-survey-2019">accounted for</a> 16% of journeys over 50 miles and 25% of journeys between 250 and 350 miles. </p>
<p>But this will require the UK government – especially the treasury – to take a new approach, supporting railways, and public transport generally, as the backbone for a zero carbon transport network. Current policies, with reduced rail services, increased fares and investment uncertainty will clearly be bad for the environment, as well as the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Joseph is visiting professor at the Smart Mobility Unit at the University of Hertfordshire; hee is also a trustee of the Fooundation foor Integrated Transport and chairs the Smart Transport programme at Bauer Media</span></em></p>Until train use recovers, a new approach to rail funding is needed.Stephen Joseph, Visiting Professor, Smart Mobility Research Unit, University of HertfordshireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707402021-11-24T16:42:59Z2021-11-24T16:42:59ZIf we all choose the fastest mode of travel in a city, the whole city gets slower – and more congested<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433511/original/file-20211123-17-58m6b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The more people choose the fastest route by car, the more congested a city becomes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/Xbh_OGLRfUM">Alexander Popov | Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People in cities often choose how to travel based on how long it will take. In recent years, navigation apps such as Google Maps and CityMapper <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15568318.2017.1300716">have enabled</a> people to decide between various modes of transport by seeing which one most quickly gets them where they want to go.</p>
<p>Cities of course have long dedicated a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692311001244">disproportionate amount</a> of space to cars. Although in some parts of the global north – and in certain demographics – car use is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692312001317">declining</a>, elsewhere it has, unsurprisingly, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X17305930">increased</a>. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.peak-urban.org/publications/paradox-traffic-and-extra-cars-city-collective-behaviour">recent study</a>, we modelled what would happen to average travelling times in a city if people were given only one other option – using the car or using another mode of transport – and if they acted only in their own interest (getting to their destination as fast as possible). </p>
<p>We wanted to see what would happen if everyone acted selfishly. How would that compare, we wondered, with a theoretical case in which people chose their mode to minimise travel times for society as a whole and not only for themselves.</p>
<h2>City spaces</h2>
<p>Using mathematical modelling, we found that if all travellers behave selfishly, and if we have a system that not only makes it relatively inexpensive to use a car, but also allows congestion to affect non-car users (cyclists, public transport users, pedestrians etc), collectively we all end up taking longer to get where we need to go – whether we’re driving a car or not. </p>
<p>City streets are often designed to make travelling by car faster and more efficient. And despite there being, for instance, an increasing amount of cycling infrastructure worldwide and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140518305255">higher satisfaction</a> among people who commute by bike, it is still very common to see narrow, disconnected cycling lanes which result in congestion induced by private cars affecting cycling travel times too.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050918304332">Mixed-use lanes</a> – those that are used by both private cars and public buses, as opposed to dedicated bus lanes – have the same effect: car congestion affects bus users too. Without proper infrastructure, there are therefore no incentives to use public transport or active transport options, such as cycling and walking.</p>
<p>And even when there is a cycling path network or dedicated bus lanes, if these cross over or otherwise intermittently share space with the general road system, this also slows everybody down. It makes the system as a whole less efficient. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0795-z">free parking for private vehicles</a> also results in longer travelling times for everyone – including non-car users – because they negate the benefits, for individuals, of not using a car if others still do.</p>
<p>We found that selfish behaviour with such inadequate infrastructure results naturally in more cars, more congestion, and longer travel times.
If using a car remains the easier and quicker option (on an individual level), people will keep using cars and cities will remain congested. By trying individually to win, we all lose. </p>
<h2>Competing priorities</h2>
<p>One alternative is to design more collaborative transport networks in which we all accept some personal delay to achieve a distribution that is better for society. We could, for example, include not only personal cost in some of the apps we use, but societal costs also. What if Google Maps told you not only where congestion is in real-time and what would be the quickest transport mode to choose for you as an individual, but which transport mode would offer the best results for your neighbourhood, your family, your colleagues, or your city? </p>
<p>Research has shown how difficult it is, however, to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0795-z">shift commuter behaviour</a>. It also highlights the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140515006544">public opposition</a> there has been to alternative measures such as limiting maximum speeds in order to lower traffic injuries, despite such measures saving lives. </p>
<p>Given this, it could prove difficult to convince some car users to sacrifice personal efficiency for the greater good. But we could start by at least making these trade-offs explicit. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A giant spaghetti junction in Los Angeles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433516/original/file-20211123-13-jd8cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our cities are designed with car travel in mind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/k5w21D7PgMk">Denys Nevozhai | Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Motorised private transport has a wide variety of impacts that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-61077-0">threaten a city’s sustainability</a>, not least the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920921000687">wellbeing and health</a> of its citizens. It contributes to air pollution and climate change through vehicle emissions and results in traffic injuries and nurtures sedentary lifestyles. </p>
<p>To encourage people to use more sustainable alternatives to car transport, cities need strong policies that steer people away from using their cars. So far, these have included low-traffic neighbourhoods and congestion charges that try to make car drivers pay for the congestion they are causing. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, systems have been implemented that attract people to transport modes, such as safe lanes for cycling, that typically have better environmental and social outcomes. These systems emphasise individualistic attitudes but target societal costs to those most responsible for them. </p>
<p>Ideally, we should create policies that help us act in the interest of our community. In the meantime, policies that push people away from their private cars could bring us closer to what would be optimal for the collective —- even if we are all acting in our own interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170740/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This project receives funding from PEAK Urban programme, funded by UKRI’s Global Challenge Research Fund, Grant Ref: ES/P011055/1</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Pablo Orjuela does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Apps are telling us how to get around our cities faster. But if each person acts only in their own interest, society at large gets stuck in traffic.Rafael Prieto Curiel, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, the Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCLJuan Pablo Orjuela, Senior Research Associate and Executive Education Programme Director, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1668942021-10-06T02:22:39Z2021-10-06T02:22:39ZWe analysed 100 million bike trips to reveal where in the world cyclists are most likely to brave rain and cold<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424891/original/file-20211006-17-tdtswq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5716%2C3819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hopping on your bike when it’s raining, or snowing, might seem unappealing. But our research has found inclement weather conditions deter some cyclists more than others. </p>
<p>In the first <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103155">analysis</a> of its kind, we captured eight years of data from 40 bike-sharing schemes around the world, across a range of climate zones, totalling 100 million trips. We then linked this data to fine-grained historical weather information. </p>
<p>We found weather patterns affect people’s willingness to cycle in different ways. For example, people in Melbourne are more likely to avoid cycling in the rain or snow than people in Dublin. And female cyclists are more put off by rain and snow than male cyclists.</p>
<p>These differences are important. Personal decisions on how and when to travel can affect overall traffic congestion, environmental pollution and travel experience. So understanding how outdoor conditions affect cycling is crucial to effective transport planning and more sustainable cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cyclist rides past row of cars" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424886/original/file-20211006-21-1o5v0e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cycling can ease traffic congestion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Insights from ‘big data’</h2>
<p>Obviously, cycling behaviour is more affected by bad weather than most other forms of transport. Previous research has confirmed this; however, the data has been patchy and limited. Bike-share schemes, which digitally record every trip taken, mean excellent “big data” is now available. </p>
<p>We used data from 40 public bike sharing programs in 40 cities across 16 countries. The programs spanned five climate zones, ranging from hot to frosty. </p>
<p>The cycling habits of people who own their bike may differ from those who use bike-sharing schemes. But bad weather can cause all cyclists to delay trips or change transport modes, so most of our findings are likely to apply broadly.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-cycling-boom-nope-its-a-myth-8020">Australian cycling boom? Nope - it's a myth</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418653/original/file-20210831-29-ke1jxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bad weather can cause all cyclists to delay trips.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Prior studies have shown rain and snow are among the worst deterrents for cycling. But our analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. </p>
<p>In cities such as Melbourne (Australia), Chicago (the United States) and Vancouver (Canada), people are more likely to avoid cycling when it rains or snows.</p>
<p>In the top 5% rainiest hours of the year in Dublin (Ireland), people use bike share at 81% of the average usage rate. In Seville and Valencia these figures are 79% and 74%, respectively. </p>
<p>In Brisbane this figure drops to 68%, while in Melbourne it’s 46%. </p>
<p>Past research has assumed this trend is due to people in cooler cities being more accustomed to rain and snow, while people in hot climes are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2019.1665857">accustomed to the sun</a>. But while Dublin is notoriously rainy, Seville and Valencia are rather dry.</p>
<p>Various factors may affect willingness to cycle in the rain. For example, high-quality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100541">cycling infrastructure</a> may spur people to get on their bikes even in inclement weather. Seville and Valencia have large bike-share systems and safe cycling networks, whereas Melbourne’s was small and not particularly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.015">useful</a> for commuting.</p>
<p>Other factors can push bike-share use up or down. They include <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/citycycles-available-around-the-clock-20131023-2w1el.html">lengthening</a> opening hours, <a href="https://skift.com/2014/10/28/nyc-bike-share-program-to-expand-increase-prices-under-new-owner/">increasing prices</a> or changing public transport arrangements – for example, Melbourne’s <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-government-plans-overhaul-to-melbourne-public-transport-zones-ticketing-20140326-35h2o.html">free tram zone</a>.</p>
<p>We found female cyclists are put off by rain and snow more than male cyclists. Not all bike-share systems record the gender of subscribers, and so this effect could only be studied in New York City and Chicago.</p>
<p>This may suggest a greater risk aversion among women, often the product of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/14/6713">socialisation</a> in patriarchal cultures where women are taught from childhood to take fewer risks.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-wet-too-cold-too-hot-this-is-how-weather-affects-the-trips-we-make-93724">Too wet? Too cold? Too hot? This is how weather affects the trips we make</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman rides bike near water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424872/original/file-20211005-24-2j54nw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The research found female cyclists were more deterred by inclement weather than male cyclists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Goldilocks temperatures</h2>
<p>Unsurprisingly, people cycle when it’s not too hot or too cold. We found the sweet spot is around 27-28°C, and bike usage declines when it gets hotter or colder.</p>
<p>But what’s considered too hot or too cold to cycle is not closely connected to the climate zone. </p>
<p>For example, cyclists in Trondheim (Norway) and Ljubljana (Slovenia) are sensitive to lower temperatures even though the first is a cold city and the second is less so. And cyclists in chilly Dublin (Ireland) and tropical Kaohsiung (Taiwan) are less sensitive to lower temperatures, even though these two cities also have vastly different climates.</p>
<p>This finding is surprising because, as with rain and snow, it was previously assumed people in the tropics could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2019.1665857">tolerate more heat</a> while people in temperate climates were more tolerant of cooler temperatures. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Silhouette of cyclists against sun and water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424873/original/file-20211005-13-diuvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What’s considered too hot or cold to cycle is not closely connected to the climate zone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steen Saphore/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>On your bike</h2>
<p>In Australia, bicycle travel accounts for only about 1% of journeys. Obviously, we can’t control the weather – but we can <a href="http://www.istiee.unict.it/europeantransport/papers/N69/P04_69_2018.pdf">transform</a> our institutional and political environments to remove barriers to cycling. </p>
<p>This includes creating safe, <a href="https://en.reset.org/blog/worlds-first-covered-bike-path-berlins-latest-arrival-12092015">weatherproof</a> infrastructure separated from high-speed motor vehicles. And cycling should become an integral part of transport planning and receive a fair share of funding.</p>
<p>Such changes will <a href="http://www.istiee.unict.it/europeantransport/papers/N69/P04_69_2018.pdf">require</a> public support to implement. Planning officials and cycling advocates must do better at motivating people to cycle. This might include positioning cycling as a “normal” pursuit, or framing it as a source of pleasure and well-being. </p>
<p>Improving cycling rates offers huge <a href="http://www.istiee.unict.it/europeantransport/papers/N69/P04_69_2018.pdf">potential benefits</a>. It would lower health-care costs, ease traffic congestion, lower greenhouse gas emissions and, importantly, make our cities more liveable places.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cyclists in Melbourne are less likely than those in Dublin or Seville to ride in the rain. Understanding why is crucial.Richard Bean, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandJonathan Corcoran, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1585892021-05-21T12:27:08Z2021-05-21T12:27:08ZPandemic-stricken mass transit would get $85 billion in Biden stimulus plan – a down payment on reviving American cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401721/original/file-20210519-13-1is09cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=36%2C0%2C5993%2C4013&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority was hit hard by a 79% ridership reduction during the pandemic. It needs an extra $8 billion through 2024 to avoid service cuts and layoffs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pedestrians-pass-by-a-subway-station-in-manhattan-on-may-17-news-photo/1318524077?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Congress now has control over what kind of commute – good, bad, awful – workers returning to offices in the U.S. will have.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/">American Jobs Plan</a>, released in March 2021, includes US$85 billion for city transit agencies to improve their systems by purchasing new buses and train cars and maintaining subway stations and tracks. </p>
<p>If passed in Congress, the dollars would explicitly build on the relief already provided to cities in last year’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/legislation/2021/01/20/president-biden-announces-american-rescue-plan/">American Rescue Plan</a>, according to the White House. That coronavirus relief bill, passed in March 2020, kept fare-starved buses, trains and subways running throughout the pandemic, often with scaled-back service, <a href="https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TC_Covid_FINAL_Pages-1.pdf">helping millions of U.S. workers</a> to reach jobs providing essential services. The money covered <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/ncsl-in-dc/publications-and-resources/american-rescue-plan-act-of-2021.aspx">payroll, rider safety measures and pandemic protective equipment for drivers</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these bills supports <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/American%20Rescue%20Plan%20Act%20-%205307%20Runs%20(Tentative)%203.8.21.pdf">public transit systems</a> in different but critical ways. U.S. transit agencies have always maintained a delicate balance in how they spend scarce taxpayer money, between <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit/">operations and capital investment</a>. </p>
<p>In practice, both are necessary to keep subway and bus systems running – and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=zbew56MAAAAJ&hl=en">as a scholar of urban planning</a> who studies transportation systems, I emphasize the necessity of reliable mass transit to revitalize American cities post-pandemic. </p>
<h2>Languishing systems</h2>
<p>Even before COVID-19, transit agencies lacked the money to maintain their systems. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit/">recent report</a> the American Society of Civil Engineers gave a D minus to American transit infrastructure. The country’s aging “fixed-rail” systems, <a href="https://eh.net/encyclopedia/urban-mass-transit-in-the-united-states/">a category that includes subways, commuter rail and light rail</a>, are in chronic disrepair. Boston’s subway system opened in 1897 and others shortly thereafter, or in the 1960s and 1970s. Over time, these systems require more investment just to maintain reliable service. </p>
<p>During recessions, however, many have foregone it out of financial necessity. And starting around 2014, <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-2020-Survey-Impact-COVID-19-Agencies.pdf">transit agencies saw declining ridership</a> – and resulting revenue decreases – as on-demand services like Uber and Lyft expanded nationwide. </p>
<p>The American Society of Civil Engineers documented the predictable consequences. The industry has $176 billion in needed investments that is expected to grow to <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Transit-2021.pdf">$250 billion by 2029</a>. Currently, 19% of transit vehicles and 6% of tracks and tunnels are rated in “poor condition.” </p>
<h2>Essential service for all workers</h2>
<p>The pandemic further upset the fragile <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-COVID-19-Funding-Impact-2021-01-27.pdf">financial balance of American mass transit</a>.</p>
<p>Ridership on subways, trains and buses nationwide plummeted <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/2020-Q4-Ridership-APTA.pdf">80% during April 2020</a> as people who could work remotely did. Large-scale events, like sports and concerts, were canceled. People increasingly ordered goods online.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four gleaming, clean and unused ticket-vending machines in a subway station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401723/original/file-20210519-12241-s5mwrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An empty Metro station in Los Angeles, Calif., on March 19, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-empty-metro-subway-station-is-seen-during-the-covid-19-news-photo/1217215255?adppopup=true">Morgan Lieberman/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some people – those who deliver goods, pick up trash and take care of patients – never stopped reporting to work during the pandemic. Other essential workers, such as construction and restaurant staff, soon resumed on-site work. But cities saw <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/08/climate/nyc-transit-covid.html">much less daily movement</a> of people. </p>
<p>Studies suggest that the sharpest decline in transit ridership occurred in regions with higher percentages of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102654">white, educated and high-income workers</a>. Regions with more jobs in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102654">trade, transportation and utilities</a> saw lower declines. So did transit systems in <a href="https://www.govtech.com/fs/after-a-devastating-year-transit-is-adapting-to-the-future.html">the South</a>, where a higher percentage of riders may be essential workers.</p>
<p>Less money from fares was compounded by reductions to the various local and state taxes and other revenue sources that <a href="https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/APTA-COVID-19-Funding-Impact-2021-01-27.pdf">help support transit operations</a>. New York’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/08/climate/nyc-transit-covid.html">Metropolitan Transportation Authority</a> says it will require an additional <a href="https://new.mta.info/document/30186">$8 billion through 2024 to avoid service cuts and layoffs</a>.</p>
<h2>Everyone wants good transit</h2>
<p>Many essential workers are what transportation planners often refer to as “captive riders” – they have to use public transit. They contrast with higher-income “choice riders,” who sometimes own cars. </p>
<p>This longstanding distinction between “captive” and “choice” transit riders, however, <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2016/07/12/the-choice-vs-captive-transit-rider-dichotomy-is-all-wrong/">ignores that most people who live in cities</a> want affordable and convenient ways to reach a diversity of destinations, not just their offices but also <a href="https://nytransit.org/resources/public-transit-facts">shops, their friends’ houses, parks and theaters</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, how urbanites get to those places depends on where they live. According to a <a href="https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/TransitCenter-WOB-2016.pdf">survey of 3,000 transit riders</a> nationwide conducted by the New York nonprofit TransitCenter, “in walkable neighborhoods with frequent transit service, people with and without cars both ride transit more than people in areas with poor transit.”</p>
<p>This is why public transit’s societal benefits extend beyond shuttling people to and from work. It offers choice about how they travel, which reduces congestion. According to the <a href="https://static.tti.tamu.edu/tti.tamu.edu/documents/mobility-report-2019.pdf">Texas A&M Transportation Institute</a>, the average driving commuter wastes 54 hours per year in traffic, costing them $1,080 in wasted time and fuel. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Congested highway with a city in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401725/original/file-20210519-21-1w5vw3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Boston at evening rush hour on Aug. 6, 2020. By then, state data suggested that traffic was approaching pre-pandemic levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/boston-traffic-at-evening-rush-hour-on-aug-6-2020-state-news-photo/1227951361?adppopup=true">Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Many large urban areas can expect extreme <a href="https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2020/06/05/transportation-lab-predicts-extreme-traffic-for-some-cities-following-covid-19/">traffic congestion this year as workers stop working remotely</a> – if they choose cars over public transportation. Fifty-five percent of Americans <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit/">have access to transit</a>. But car owners will drive if subways and buses cannot maintain frequent, convenient and reliable service. </p>
<h2>Transit is safe</h2>
<p>As for COVID-19 risk on public transportation, evidence shows <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/10/nyregion/nyc-subway-coronavirus.html">it is quite low</a>.</p>
<p>The ventilation systems in most transit systems are better than many other indoor spaces. In addition to mandatory mask-wearing, many cities – including Detroit and San Antonio – made transit free or enabled back-door entry <a href="https://nacto.org/covid19-rapid-response-tools-for-transit-agencies/">to limit rider-driver interactions</a>.</p>
<p>These COVID-19 safety protocols, along with good air flow, ensured the safety of transit passengers throughout the pandemic. Enforcing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/public-transit-drivers-struggle-to-enforce-mask-mandates-154689">mask requirement will remain a challenge</a>.</p>
<p>Worldwide, transit agencies in Korea, China and Taiwan continued to carry between 70% and 90% of typical ridership without new local cases among riders. Studies in Japan and France, using contract tracing, showed <a href="https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/FactSheetFinal.pdf">limited connections between transit usage and COVID-19 clusters</a></p>
<p>If Congress passes the American Jobs Plan, the infrastructure funding it sends to cities and states will encourage American transit agencies to upgrade their buses, trains and subways, improve tracks or expand service <a href="https://apta.com/wp-content/uploads/TRANSIT_PRIORITIES_POST_PANDEMIC_Nov_2020.pdf">for all workers returning to their regular lives</a>. The package allows cities to spend their portion of the $85 billion to <a href="https://escholarship.org/content/qt15t657r2/qt15t657r2.pdf?t=qpo52c">provide the kind of frequent, reliable and less costly service</a> that makes mass transit a more appealing option than a rideshare service. </p>
<p>Good mass transit also encourages people to travel in cities – fueling the pandemic recovery that people badly want and the economy so desperately needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158589/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Steiner receives funding from United States Department of Transportation (under their University Transportation Center Program (see <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/content/university-transportation-centers">https://www.transportation.gov/content/university-transportation-centers</a>)) and Florida Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>Transit agencies could use the money to buy new subway cars, buses and maintain rails. The funding is designed to build on last year’s emergency aid, which kept transit operating through the pandemic.Ruth Steiner, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1603032021-05-12T14:54:43Z2021-05-12T14:54:43ZGhana’s road traffic problems have deep and spreading roots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399450/original/file-20210507-13-1vzu9qj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ghana is struggling to curb a surge in car accidents</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/search/car+accident">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much has been written about the crashes, congestion and pollution on Ghana’s roads. Road injury is among the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/countries/ghana/pdf/Ghana_Factsheet.pdf">top 10 causes of deaths</a> in the country. One report suggests that about <a href="https://citinewsroom.com/2019/01/road-accident-injuries-deaths-cost-ghana-230m-annually/">$230 million is spent annually</a> on emergency and trauma care associated with motor accidents alone.</p>
<p>The heavy traffic jams don’t just undermine <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585617300857">productivity</a>, they also contribute to <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/air-pollution-silent-killer-lagos#:%7E:text=A%20recent%20World%20Bank%20study,the%20highest%20in%20West%20Africa.">respiratory diseases</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S030142152030344X">environmental damage</a>. </p>
<p>What’s not so well known, though, is the way systemic factors have moulded the road transport sector into its present problematic form. Inherited colonial systems and externally imposed policies, combined with local conditions, have entrenched the sector’s problems.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00695-5">set out to investigate</a> the colonial, neocolonial and imperial roots of Ghana’s road transport misery, using media, scholarly and institutional sources of information. Building a safe and sustainable road transport sector requires understanding the root causes of the present problems.</p>
<h2>Impact of history</h2>
<p>When Ghana’s economy tumbled in 1983, the military government at the time approached the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Home">International Monetary Fund</a> and the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/home">World Bank</a> for help. The help came with the condition of “<a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/pfp/ghana/ghana0.htm">structural adjustment”</a> of Ghana’s economy. Most developing countries that applied for support from the World Bank and IMF were made to sign on to similar programmes.</p>
<p>Structural adjustment reforms involve a series of economic interventions. But in Ghana – and elsewhere – the underlying idea was that governments should no longer provide public goods. Privatising many government enterprises would reduce spending and balance the budget, along with making markets more competitive.</p>
<p>These reforms affected road transport in Ghana in untold ways. First, the withdrawal of the state created room for the private sector to be even more involved in transport service delivery. </p>
<p>However, while the <em>tro-tros</em> (minibuses) and <em>okadas</em> (motorcycles) offer flexible and generally affordable services, high <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fines-and-jail-time-wont-change-the-behaviour-of-ghanas-minibus-drivers-155379">unemployment and lack of labour protections</a> in the sector allow vehicle owners to exploit drivers by imposing high daily revenue targets on them. </p>
<p>These factors, together with the general level of hyper-competition in the commercial passenger transport sector and police corruption, create conditions for dangerous driving behaviour to thrive. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fines-and-jail-time-wont-change-the-behaviour-of-ghanas-minibus-drivers-155379">Why fines and jail time won't change the behaviour of Ghana's minibus drivers</a>
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<p>Structural adjustment also contributed to the heavy importation of old used cars in Ghana. <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Governance-for-Pro-Poor-Urban-Development-Lessons-from-Ghana/Obeng-Odoom/p/book/9781138672758">Research</a> shows that prior to the IMF and World Bank measures, car importation volumes were <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19463130903561475#:%7E:text=Papers-,Drive%20left%2C%20look%20right%3A%20the%20political%20economy,of%20urban%20transport%20in%20Ghana&text=Car%20usage%20in%20Ghana%20is%20growing%20at%20an%20alarming%20rate.&text=The%20article%20argues%20that%20the,travelling%20since%20the%20mid%2D1980s">modest</a>. </p>
<p>The liberalisation of the economy reversed the trend and opened the floodgate for heavy importation of cars. But only a few of imported cars in Ghana are brand new. The <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19463130903561475#:%7E:text=Papers-,Drive%20left%2C%20look%20right%3A%20the%20political%20economy,of%20urban%20transport%20in%20Ghana&text=Car%20usage%20in%20Ghana%20is%20growing%20at%20an%20alarming%20rate.&text=The%20article%20argues%20that%20the,travelling%20since%20the%20mid%2D1980s.">majority</a> are often second-, third-, fourth-, and even fifth-hand cars. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/climate/used-car-export-pollution.html">Research</a> has shown that ageing vehicles are not just highly polluting, they are also highly prone to malfunctioning and, therefore, crashes. </p>
<p>Traffic congestion is another persisting road transport problem in Ghana. It too, has colonial and imperial roots. The reforms attracted enormous private capital investments to Ghana. The problem, however, is that Ghana’s elites have failed to dismantle, and have actually deepened the discriminatory pattern of spatial investment constructed by the British colonial government. </p>
<p>This pattern of spatial investment which favours the south has led to the development infrastructure to support businesses to make profit in that part of the country. And since investors usually want to establish businesses at places where infrastructure exist for them to maximise profit, almost all the investments structural adjustment attracted were directed to the already developed southern industrial enclaves–particularly <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Accra">Accra</a>, <a href="http://tdc.gov.gh/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1&Itemid=3">Tema</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Kumasi">Kumasi</a></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poor-policies-not-drivers-are-to-blame-for-ghanas-road-transport-miseries-158542">Poor policies, not drivers, are to blame for Ghana’s road transport miseries</a>
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<p>This on its own should not have been a problem. But, once again, the Ghanaian authorities have retained the imperial planning laws and systems that separate home from work. This land-use pattern compels more travelling to the cities where businesses, jobs, services and trade are concentrated. The result is that, in places like Accra, drivers and passengers can be held up on the road for as long as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/11/gridlock-west-africa-accra-troubled-attempts-tackle-traffic-crisis">three or four hours to travel a few kilometres</a>. </p>
<p>Congestion reduces productivity, causes environmental pollution and induces fatigue while driving. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15389588.2018.1556792?journalCode=gcpi20">Research</a> has shown that Ghanaian drivers, particularly working-class drivers, often resort to aggressive driving and speeding to make up for lost time in traffic. </p>
<p>What the evidence considered suggests, overall, is that road transport miseries in Ghana need to be understood in the context of the historical, global and local socio-economic developments, and factors that have entrenched the transport sector in its present form. These kinds of reflections are important because they reveal the deep and spreading roots of road transport miseries in the country.</p>
<h2>Towards reforms</h2>
<p>My study proposes interventions that could tackle the myriad of factors that have entrenched a heavy reliance on cars, dangerous driving and unduly long travelling times.</p>
<p>Such interventions could include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Making flexible work hours a condition for granting business permits or licences to break the current “rush hour syndrome” in the cities</p></li>
<li><p>Investing in big busses, rail and non-motorised transport systems (such as bicycle lanes and walkways) to reduce the number of cars on the roads</p></li>
<li><p>Addressing youth unemployment and labour exploitation (especially driver exploitation) to reduce incentives for aggressive driving to meet revenue targets</p></li>
<li><p>Mixed-town planning and land-use patterns that allow people to live, work and shop in the same area, so they travel less</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These interventions and others, at a wider societal level, would do more to improve road transport experience in the country than the current public policy of declaring <a href="https://police.gov.gh/en/index.php/news-release-police-administration-collaborates-with-citi-news-to-check-indiscipline-on-the-roads/">“wars”</a> on so-called undisciplined drivers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Festival Godwin Boateng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The inability to curb road accidents in Ghana is tied to colonial and neocolonial legacies.Festival Godwin Boateng, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Sustainable Urban Development, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1502902021-01-05T19:01:22Z2021-01-05T19:01:22ZDistance-based road charges will improve traffic — and if done right won’t slow Australia’s switch to electric cars<p>Road-user charges on electric vehicles based on distance driven were announced in November 2020 by the governments of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/sa-to-introduce-electric-vehicle-user-charge/12869302">South Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-to-tax-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-from-2021-124619">Victoria</a>, while New South Wales ministers have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-ve-got-to-be-bullish-nsw-ministers-at-odds-over-electric-car-tax-20201128-p56irz.html">differing views</a>. These charges are justified on several grounds, including the costs of road use and congestion. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/climate-justice/electric-vehicles-vic-contact-ask/call-for-clean-energy-not-a-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles">Critics</a> <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/ev-road-user-charge-a-great-big-new-tax-on-not-polluting">argue</a> the new charges will deter uptake of these more environmentally-friendly vehicles. But Australian governments could learn from examples overseas, including New Zealand, where incentives for buyers of electric vehicles more than offset the impacts of road user charges. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/think-taxing-electric-vehicle-use-is-a-backward-step-heres-why-its-an-important-policy-advance-150644">Think taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here's why it's an important policy advance</a>
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<h2>Road use creates huge costs</h2>
<p>One reason for introducing a distance-based charge for electric vehicles is that owners of petrol cars pay fuel excise, currently 42.3 cents per litre. With <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/survey-motor-vehicle-use-australia-methodology/12-months-ended-30-june-2018">average fuel use</a> of about 10.8 litres per 100km for Australian cars, drivers pay excise of about 4.6 cents per kilometre for road use. This is much higher than Victoria’s proposed distance charge of 2.5 cents per kilometre for electric vehicles. </p>
<p>The average passenger car in Australia was driven <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/survey-motor-vehicle-use-australia/latest-release">about 11,100km</a> in the year to June 2020 (the pre-COVID average was about 13,000km). This means the federal government collected about A$557 in fuel excise per car. </p>
<p>Although the excise is not specifically dedicated to funding roads, the Australian government is a generous funder of road construction and maintenance. All up, Australia’s three levels of government <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2020/australian-infrastructure-statistics-yearbook-2020">spent A$28.5 billion on roads</a> in 2018-19. It is reasonable to expect electric vehicle drivers to make some contribution to the roads they use. </p>
<p>The main argument against the new charges is that Australia’s uptake of electric vehicles has been slow and governments should be promoting a shift away from fossil fuels. However, the main disincentive is the cost of buying a new electric car, on par with a luxury car. </p>
<p>Governments could overcome this issue by reducing taxes on electric vehicle purchases and/or providing a subsidy for these purchases, as <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/area-of-interest/environment-and-climate-change/electric-vehicles-programme/">New Zealand has done</a> since 2016 (with an exemption from distance charges until 2021).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
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<h2>Congested roads demand action</h2>
<p>Infrastructure Australia found the economic <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/urban-transport-crowding-and-congestion">cost of road congestion</a> in the six largest capitals and their satellite cities was about A$19 billion in 2016. If infrastructure did not keep up with demand, this was likely to increase to A$39 billion a year by 2031.</p>
<p>However, the evidence from Australia and overseas is clear: building more roads does not overcome congestion. The phenomenon of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review">induced demand</a> means new roads simply fill up with more cars making more trips. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-does-building-and-expanding-motorways-really-reduce-congestion-and-emissions-147024">Climate explained: does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions?</a>
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<p>The emergence on our roads of electric vehicles that don’t generate fuel excise revenue has led to growing calls for road-user charges on these vehicles, including from <a href="https://infrastructure.org.au/ruc-for-evs/">Infrastructure Partnerships Australia</a> in 2019 and <a href="https://theconversation.com/think-taxing-electric-vehicle-use-is-a-backward-step-heres-why-its-an-important-policy-advance-150644">RMIT researchers</a> in November 2020.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has driven a shift to car use. Before recent outbreaks reduced travel, road traffic in Australian cities was as much as 25% above pre-pandemic volumes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing trends in driving, walking and public transport use in Australian cities since January 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376935/original/file-20210103-13-1z0jptw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Australia-wide mobility trends from January 13 2020 to January 2 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://covid19.apple.com/mobility">Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>Policy remedies are proven</h2>
<p>The proven remedy for road congestion is a combination of better public transport and road <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/congestion-charges-17784">congestion charging</a>. This can be a charge to enter a specific area (cordon) or a charge per kilometre. It can be varied by time of day.</p>
<p>In NSW, a <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/3048968">ministerial inquiry into sustainable transport</a> proposed such charges back in 2004. A large proportion of submissions in response to a 2002 federal AusLink green paper favoured congestion pricing. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/congestion-charges-17784">Many Conversation articles</a> have also advocated this policy. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/project/30-year-strategy">forward-looking strategy</a>, now open for <a href="https://engage.vic.gov.au/victorias-30-year-infrastructure-strategy">public consultation</a>, Infrastructure Victoria proposes a review in the next two years of the Melbourne <a href="https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/car-parks">congestion levy on parking</a>, congestion pricing for all new metropolitan freeways and, in the next five years, a trial of full-scale congestion pricing in inner Melbourne.</p>
<p>Singapore has used congestion pricing since 1975 and automated <a href="https://development.asia/case-study/case-electronic-road-pricing#:%7E:text=Singapore%20launched%20Electronic%20Road%20Pricing,about%209%20years%20to%20implement.">electronic road pricing</a> since 1998. </p>
<p>London, after some controversy, implemented a cordon scheme in 2003. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/london-congestion-charge-what-worked-what-didnt-what-next-92478">benefits</a> include reduced traffic, noise and air pollution along with improved public transport. The scheme has been modified over the years and access is now free for electric vehicles and certain hybrids and small cars.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/london-congestion-charge-what-worked-what-didnt-what-next-92478">London congestion charge: what worked, what didn't, what next</a>
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<p>Other large cities with congestion pricing include Stockholm and Milan. New York is expected to follow in 2022. A <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/431773/auckland-city-centre-facing-congestion-charge-">congestion tax is also being considered</a> for Auckland. </p>
<h2>Road freight is on the rise too</h2>
<p>I discussed road-user charges for heavy trucks in a 2017 <a href="https://theconversation.com/trucks-are-destroying-our-roads-and-not-picking-up-the-repair-cost-79670">Conversation article</a>. At that time in Australia, hidden subsidies for heavy truck use in the form of unrecovered road system costs, along with related external costs of road crashes, pollution, emissions, noise and road congestion, totalled about A$3 billion a year. I now estimate this shortfall to be about A$4 billion.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trucks-are-destroying-our-roads-and-not-picking-up-the-repair-cost-79670">Trucks are destroying our roads and not picking up the repair cost</a>
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<p>Australia should introduce mass distance pricing as has been used in New Zealand since 1978 and increasingly in Europe. Instead it relies on annual registration fees and a discounted heavy vehicle fuel excise of <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/laws-and-regulations/road-user-charges">25.8 cents per litre</a>. These charges have essentially been frozen for five years.</p>
<p>Proposals for a modest 2.5% increase in the heavy vehicle fuel charge <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/mccormack/media-release/continued-support-truckies-keep-australia-moving-during-covid-19">were shelved</a> after COVID-19 hit. They are now <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/transport-reform/ntc-projects/heavy-vehicle-charges-2021-22">under review</a> again.</p>
<p>One in three submissions to a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/freight-supply-chain-priorities/index.aspx">federal inquiry</a> into developing a National Freight and Supply Chain Strategy highlighted the need for road pricing. The final <a href="https://www.freightaustralia.gov.au/">2019 strategy</a> all but ignored this issue, despite a projected near-doubling of road freight by 2040.</p>
<p>Failure to reform road pricing coupled with ongoing relaxation of mass and dimension limits for heavy trucks is a recipe for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/road-freight-rise">ever more “loads on roads”</a> at the expense of rail freight and coastal shipping.</p>
<p>In 2002, the then Treasury secretary, Ken Henry, <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">said</a> of the projected increases in city traffic and interstate road freight: “Not dealing with these issues now amounts to passing a very challenging set of problems to future generations.”</p>
<p>In 2010, the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/the-australias-future-tax-system-review/final-report">Henry Tax Review</a> made several road-pricing recommendations. These included that Australian governments “should accelerate the development of mass-distance-location pricing for heavy vehicles”.</p>
<p>The review also recommended governments analyse the network-wide benefits and costs of introducing variable congestion pricing on tolled roads and consider extending it across heavily congested parts of the road network. </p>
<p>Road pricing reform is now long overdue. And it should include electric vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150290/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC. He is affiliated, inter alia, with Action for Public Transport (NSW), the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Railway Technical Society of Australasia and the Rail Futures Institute. The opinions expressed are those of the author. </span></em></p>The benefits of road-user charging are now well established. And including electric vehicles doesn’t have to be a deterrent to their uptake, as New Zealand and other nations have shown.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1506442020-11-25T19:04:31Z2020-11-25T19:04:31ZThink taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here’s why it’s an important policy advance<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/sa-to-introduce-electric-vehicle-user-charge/12869302">South Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-to-tax-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-from-2021-124619.html?trackLink=SMH1">Victorian</a> governments have announced, and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/electric-car-tax-spreads-to-new-states/news-story/172ac67ccd8974566e3c65dc26c07048">New South Wales</a> is considering, road user charges on electric vehicles. This policy has drawn scorn from <a href="https://nb.tai.org.au/no_ev_tax?recruiter_id=194711">environmental advocates</a> and <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/11/21/shameful-victoria-follows-south-australia-and-imposes-electric-car-road-tax/">motor vehicle lobbyists</a> who fear it will slow the uptake of less-polluting vehicles. But, from a longer-term transport policy perspective, a distance-based road user charge on electric vehicles is an important step forward.</p>
<p>Superficially, a charge on electric vehicle use seems misguided. Road sector emissions are the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/107/8/3382">worst contributors to climate change</a>. Electric vehicles powered by clean energy offer the promise of near-zero emissions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
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<p>As electric vehicle and renewable energy costs decline we can expect a shift to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2020/CSIRO-DER-Forecast-Report">full electrification of urban vehicles over the next 30 years</a>. Surely accelerating this transition is an urgent climate task?</p>
<p>The downside lies not in the carbon benefits of these vehicles, but in their use as private passenger transport in congested urban areas and <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">the costs</a> this use imposes on cities. As renewable energy becomes cheaper, the marginal cost of every kilometre driven is likely to decline. As driving becomes cheaper, more of it is likely to occur.</p>
<p>More driving means more congestion. Inevitably, that increases demand for increasingly expensive road projects, such as Sydney’s WestConnex, or Melbourne’s Westgate Tunnel and North East Link. It certainly will run against the recognition in urban plans such as <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a> that we must shift to alternative transport modes.</p>
<p>If we don’t have a pricing regime that accounts for the cost of car use in cities, the transition to electric vehicles is likely to work against the wider goals of urban and transport policy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>How would distance-based charging work?</h2>
<p>Many urban transport policy advocates have called for distance-based road-user charging to be imposed on all vehicles in cities. This sounds great in theory, but in practice is difficult for technical and political reasons of privacy and surveillance. Such concerns will diminish over time as cars increasingly incorporate automated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telematics">telematics</a> that necessarily track their movement.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charging efficiently matches road use to its costs – of infrastructure, congestion, noise, pollution and deaths. It improves on fuel excise, which drivers can nearly completely evade by using a highly efficient vehicle. It also goes beyond tolling to fund major roads, which typically apply only to specific links.</p>
<p>Second, road-user charging can be varied in response to demand that exceeds road capacities. Higher rates can be applied at peak times to ensure free-flowing traffic and shift travel to other times and modes. Various taxation reviews, including the 2009 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_2_vol_2_consolidated.pdf">Henry Taxation Review</a> and <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity-review/report/productivity-review-supporting9.pdf">Productivity Commission</a> reports, have promoted such policies.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">Road user charging belongs on the political agenda as the best answer for congestion management</a>
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<h2>Exactly how big would the disincentive be?</h2>
<p>Would imposing such charges on electric vehicles retard their uptake? </p>
<p>Based on our work with <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.lib.rmit.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0966692320309443?utm_campaign=elsOnboarding_Published&utm_medium=email&utm_dgroup=STMJ_AUTH_SERV_PUBLISHED&utm_acid=79567271&SIS_ID=&dgcid=elsOnboarding_Published&CMX_ID=&utm_in=DM82577&utm_source=AC_">ABS Census journey-to-work data</a>, in Melbourne the average daily round-trip commuting distance by car is about 25 kilometres. The proposed Victorian charge is 2.5 cents per kilometre. Thus, in Melbourne the average daily commuter’s road user charge is likely to be 63 cents – $3.13 for a typical five-day working week. Over a 48-week working year that totals A$150, hardly a large sum for most people.</p>
<p>By comparison, a commuter in a conventional vehicle with the average current fuel efficiency of 10.9 L/100km will use about 2.73 litres of fuel on which they pay 42.3 cents per litre in fuel excise. That’s about $1.15 a day, or $5.75 a week. </p>
<p>The average tax saving for electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles will be about 2.1 cents per kilometre. Electric vehicle drivers will be taxed about 53 cents a day, or $2.64 a week, less for their car work travel. They’ll be about $126 a year better off.</p>
<p>Commuting trips make up about 25% of car use, so electric car users’ overall savings are likely to be even greater. </p>
<p>It is difficult to see how such savings on excise tax are a <em>disincentive</em> to electric vehicle uptake. Fears of a “<a href="https://medium.com/@TheAustraliaInstitute/11-reasons-why-a-great-big-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-6bf89c99e688">great big new tax</a>”, as the Australia Institute puts it, seem unfounded, as are concerns that road-user charges would “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/nov/22/tax-on-electric-vehicles-in-south-australia-and-victoria-would-slam-brakes-on-sales">slam the brakes on sales</a>”.</p>
<p>Let’s be clear, the big barrier is the <em>upfront cost</em> of electric vehicles, about <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/about/compare">$10,000 more</a> than their conventional equivalents. Advocates for electric vehicles should focus on that difference, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/22/well-be-left-behind-australias-electric-car-inertia-is-getting-it-nowhere">failures in Australian government policy</a>, not state road-user charges. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">Electric car sales tripled last year. Here's what we can do to keep them growing</a>
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<h2>Why taxing actual road use matters</h2>
<p>It needs to be recognised that, with lower marginal costs, electric vehicles are likely to be used more than conventional cars. That would increase pressure on urban road capacity. So while the new road-user charge of 2.5 cents per kilometre is flat across the time of day or the route driven, this will likely need to change.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charges have been politically controversial. Imposing a tiny charge on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">minority vehicle type</a> is an expedient way of introducing a needed reform. Fewer than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release">1.8%</a> of vehicles in Australia are currently electric or hybrid. But as all cars become electric, distance-based road charges will become an increasingly powerful policy tool. </p>
<p>Thanks to advancing telematics, transport planners will eventually be able to impose variable road-user charging by time of day and route, similar to ride-hailing companies’ “surge” pricing. We could then apply novel approaches such as a cap-and-trade system. A city could allocate its motorists an annual kilometres quota, which is then traded to create a market for excess urban road use. </p>
<p>The private car could also be integrated into <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service</a> models. </p>
<p>Road-user charges could be regressive for people with few alternatives to the car. But telematic tracking could allow for lower charges for less affluent households in dispersed outer suburbs with few other options.</p>
<p>Beyond fuel, private cars have high environmental costs in <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/green-guide/buying-guides/car/environmental-impact/">steel, plastic, aluminium, glass and rubber use</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">about one-third of our increasingly valuable urban space</a> is given over to cars in the form of roads and parking. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/freeing-up-the-huge-areas-set-aside-for-parking-can-transform-our-cities-85331">Freeing up the huge areas set aside for parking can transform our cities</a>
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<p>To reduce this demand on resources and space, car use could be priced to shift travel to, and fund, more sustainable and city-friendly modes such as public transport, walking and cycling. We could even price the car out of cities completely. The most environmentally sustainable car, after all, is no car at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Terry Li's research.</span></em></p>Electric vehicles would lower emissions, but if their lower running costs lead to increased car use that creates a whole lot of other costs for our cities.Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityTiebei (Terry) Li, Research Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489262020-11-15T18:52:14Z2020-11-15T18:52:14ZCOVID shows working from home the best way to beat congestion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368951/original/file-20201111-19-ma041d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C6016%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-jamming-traffic-jam-1109250887">249 Anurak/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As almost anyone who wastes countless hours stuck in traffic would agree, there’s little more frustrating for workers than starting or ending the day with an overly long commute. But, while we might not like it, more of us are doing it. In 2019, the average daily commute time for Australian metro workers was <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">66 minutes</a>. Then COVID happened.</p>
<p>Although the pandemic has forced change without choice on almost all of us, there have been some positive unintended consequences. Commuting times are one winner, particularly in larger cities. The increase in working from home turns out to be the best policy lever the transport sector has ever pulled for reducing traffic congestion in our cities. </p>
<iframe title="How avoiding the commute is making us happier" height="122" width="100%" style="border: none;" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/74h3d-f25c07?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=1&pfauth=&btn-skin=107"></iframe>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">Australian city workers' average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?</a>
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<p>We began looking at the impacts of the increase in working from home on our roads and public transport from March to September. We found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004">10-15% drop in peak-period congestion</a>. That’s similar to traffic during school holidays. </p>
<iframe title="Profile of work days and working from home by state" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-AJyqT" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AJyqT/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<iframe title="Profile of work days and working from home by occupation" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-1TxZe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1TxZe/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>COVID-19, it turns out, has done something that nobody in government has been able to achieve – cutting road congestion almost overnight. </p>
<h2>For commuters, time is money</h2>
<p>It’s possible to <a href="https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/handle/2123/15314/VTTScar%20Ho%20Mulley%20Shiftan%20Hensher%2028%20Jan%202016.pdf;jsessionid=3A5FEA2C6F7698B4A2FA63FCE2FA5E5B?sequence=2">calculate how much these kinds of shifts are worth</a> to us as a society. If we weren’t stuck in traffic, what else might we do with that time? And just how much is it worth to us? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women looking at watch while stuck in traffic" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">All that time spent stuck in traffic has a cost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Syda Productions/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The Greater Sydney metropolitan area, covering Newcastle to Wollongong, is a good example. From late May 2020, commuting times declined as working from home boomed. We calculate this cut total commuting time costs by 54%, from A$10.5 billion a year to A$5.58 billion. </p>
<p>Naturally, commuters want to know the impact on their own metaphorical hip pockets. In Greater Sydney, we calculate the average annual reduction in time costs per car commuter was A$2,312 as at May 2020. That’s equivalent to A$48.16 per week, or A$9.63 per weekday. </p>
<p>For the public transport commuter, the “time cost” of being stuck in traffic is higher as their commute is often longer. Their time saving is worth A$5,203 per person, an equivalent of A$108.39 per week or A$21.68 per weekday. </p>
<p>It’s all money that could be better spent elsewhere, especially in the current economic environment. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing percentage of work days working from home by occupation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>Transport planning priorities will change</h2>
<p>Congestion shows us working from home is changing more than the workplace: it could have profound implications for road investment and transport policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.07.00">Our data</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004">show</a> the increase in working from home is spread evenly across the five weekdays. This is important, since infrastructure and service capacity are typically determined by peak demand. If demand can be flattened, as the data suggest it can be, then the implications for transport planning priorities will be significant.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning</a>
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<p>Of course, now that full-time working from home is easing for many, we don’t expect this level of benefit to be sustained. But we believe we’ll still be left with a significant improvement on pre-COVID congestion. Early signs, including from our surveys in September, suggest many people in certain occupations are <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-management-resistance-overcome-working-from-home-may-be-here-to-stay-144850">likely to work from home</a> one to two days a week in the future, with full employer support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing percentage of work days working from home by occupation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>But to really capture the benefits of this welcome shift on our roads, we need governments to play a role. They need to publicly support working from home as a way of reducing pressure on transport networks, especially in our big cities. </p>
<p>2020 has proven traffic congestion can be reduced without building more roads. What’s more, doing so brings other benefits: in addition to myriad environmental benefits, our increased ability to work from home will open up new opportunities for revitalising suburbia. These adjustments align well with the concept of the 20- or 30-minute city, a strategy many Australian city planners are grappling with.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is there a downside to fewer commutes?</h2>
<p>As more of us spend fewer days commuting, there are risks. For example, we might move more permanently to using private cars for commuting (even once COVID safety issues subside). </p>
<p>If we commute for only three or four days a week, rather than five, we may be more tolerant of the costs associated with driving, such as parking fees and tolls. Even congestion itself may bother us less. </p>
<p>If this occurs, we may have to find other ways to contain this increase in car use if we want to keep those shorter commutes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Strategies to limit car use in peak periods</h2>
<p>One option is road-pricing reform – a user-pays system. One <a href="https://imovecrc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Bibliography-Tackling-road-congestion-David-A-Hensher.pdf">well-researched</a> user charge is to replace vehicle registration charges (in part or in full) with a distance-based charge (cents/km) during periods of heavy congestion – for example, peak periods in cities. </p>
<p>What makes this option appealing is the ability to set charges at a level that leaves most people no worse off financially (the hip-pocket test), while at the same time reducing peak-period car use to improve travel times. We <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">estimate</a> 5-7c/km would be the right price. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">Three charts on: why congestion charging is fairer than you might think</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">Surveys show</a> over 70% of commuters could switch to other times of the day and still use their cars if keen to avoid the distance-based charge. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">Our modelling</a> suggests this would deliver an 8% improvement in travel times. That’s equivalent to school holiday periods and the shift we’ve seen from the increase in working from home. </p>
<p>It is likely this shift would only increase in a world where working from home means people can work more flexibly.</p>
<p>An alternative strategy to keep congestion low, even if our love for private car travel increases, centres on incentives – rewards similar to those used by supermarkets or airlines. </p>
<p>Why not create incentives like loyalty points for drivers willing to switch to off-peak car use or to public transport? Drivers’ decisions could be tracked via GPS, and resulting reward points converted to cash payments or discounts on travel and other non-transport-related purchases.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">Coronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qDNDox3oPhU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Travel post-COVID-19: alternative views from leading academics.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aUr3Y5E0x4w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Travel post-COVID-19: Q&A session.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hensher receives funding from ARC and CRC (iMOVE).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Beck receives funding from CRC iMove.</span></em></p>COVID led to commuting time savings worth over $2,000 a year for each driver and $5,000 per public transport user. But as workplaces reopen, we may need road user charges to keep traffic flowing.David Hensher, Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of SydneyMatthew Beck, Associate Professor in Infrastructure Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1470242020-10-06T04:31:33Z2020-10-06T04:31:33ZClimate explained: does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360735/original/file-20200930-14-g40oyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=272%2C188%2C3840%2C2294&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oleg Podchashynskyi/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Q: Does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions, or does it increase it?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Historically, building more and wider roads, including motorways, was seen as a way of reducing congestion. This in turn is supposed to lower emissions.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GOZxb07CT8U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The new motorways of the future.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fuel efficiency is optimised for driving at <a href="https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/driveHabits.jsp">around 80kmh</a> and it decreases the faster you go above that. But with <a href="https://www.drivingtests.co.nz/resources/speed-limits-in-new-zealand/">speed limits up to 110kmh</a>, people are likely to drive above 80kmh on motorways — and this means building and expanding motorways will actually increase emissions.</p>
<p>Many countries, especially in Europe, are now looking to <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/transport/speed-limits-fuel-consumption-and">lower speed limits</a> partly to reduce emissions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remove-car-lanes-restrict-vehicles-and-improve-transit-to-reduce-traffic-congestion-127873">Remove car lanes, restrict vehicles and improve transit to reduce traffic congestion</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In addition to speeding, rapid acceleration and braking can <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/factors.shtml">lower mileage</a> by 15-30% at highway speeds and 10-40% in stop-and-go traffic. If building or expanding motorways did reduce congestion, the smoother driving would be a benefit.</p>
<p>But this assumption is not backed by evidence. <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7276027/traffic-jam">Research shows</a> even on roads with no impediments drivers brake and accelerate unnecessarily, increasing congestion and emissions.</p>
<p>One of the <a href="https://www.itsdigest.com/10-advantages-autonomous-vehicles">arguments for future autonomous vehicles</a> is that such braking and accelerating should not occur and emissions should reduce.</p>
<h2>New roads, new drivers</h2>
<p>The most significant impact new and expanded motorways have on congestion and emissions is the effect on the distance people travel.</p>
<p>Historically, engineers assumed cars (and more pertinently their drivers) would behave like water. In other words, if you had too much traffic for the road space provided, you would build a new road or expand an existing one and cars would spread themselves across the increased road space.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A traffic jam on a motorway to Auckland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Congested traffic on a motorway into the centre of Auckland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">patjo/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, this is not what happens. New road capacity attracts new drivers. In the short term, people who had previously been discouraged from using congested roads start to use them.</p>
<p>In the longer term, people move further away from city centres to take advantage of new roads that allow them to travel further faster.</p>
<p>This is partly due to the “travel time budget” — a concept also known as <a href="http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4071/1/RR-95-04.pdf" title="Anthropological invariants in travel behavior">Marchetti’s constant</a> — which suggests people are prepared to spend around <a href="https://theconversation.com/defying-the-one-hour-rule-for-city-travel-traffic-modelling-drives-policy-madness-53099">an hour a day</a> commuting. Cities tend to grow to a diameter of one-hour travel time.</p>
<h2>City sprawl</h2>
<p>The concept is supported by evidence that cities have sprawled more as modes of transport have changed. For example, cities were small when we could only walk, but expanded along transport corridors with rail and then sprawled with the advent of cars. This all allows commuters to travel greater distances within the travel time budget.</p>
<p>Building or expanding roads releases latent demand — widely <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review">defined</a> as “the increment in new vehicle traffic that would not have occurred without the improvement of the network capacity”.</p>
<p>This concept is not new. The first evidence of it can be found back in the 1930s. Later <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.$b3477&view=1up&seq=457" title="The law of peak-hour exprssway congestion">research in 1962</a> found that “on urban commuter expressways, peak-hour traffic congestion rises to meet maximum capacity”.</p>
<p>A considerable body of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review" title="Induced travel demand: an evidence review">evidence</a> is now available to confirm this. But, despite this indisputable fact, many road-improvement decisions continue to be based on the assumption that extra space will not generate new traffic.</p>
<h2>If you build it, they will drive</h2>
<p>A significant change occurred in 1994 when a <a href="https://bettertransport.org.uk/sites/default/files/trunk-roads-traffic-report.pdf">report</a> by the UK Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Appraisal confirmed road building actually generates more traffic.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, this wasn’t acknowledged until the Transport Agency’s 2010 <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/economic-evaluation-manual/volume-2/docs/eem2-july-2010.pdf">Economic Evaluation Manual</a>, which said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] generated traffic often fills a significant portion (50–90%) of added urban roadway capacity.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vehicle lights blur at night on a busy motorway into Auckland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic increases as motorways expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shaun Jeffers/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some congestion discourages people from driving (suppresses latent demand), but with no congestion traffic will fill road space over time, particularly in or near urban areas.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the opposite can also work. Where road space is removed, demand can be suppressed and traffic reduces without other neighbouring roads becoming overly congested.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-electric-car-batteries-feed-power-back-into-the-grid-143821">Could electric car batteries feed power back into the grid?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One of the best examples of this is the closure of the <a href="https://www.kcet.org/shows/departures/from-freeways-to-waterways-what-los-angeles-can-learn-from-seoul">Cheonggyecheon Freeway</a> in the middle of Seoul, South Korea.</p>
<p>When the busy road was removed from the city, rather than the traffic moving to and congesting nearby roads, <a href="https://vimeo.com/37476124">most of the traffic actually disappeared</a>, as Professor Jeff Kenworthy from Curtin University’s Sustainable Policy Institute notes.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/37476124" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>This suppression of latent demand works best when good alternative ways of travel are available, including high-quality public transport or separated cycle lanes.</p>
<p>The short answer to the question about road building and expansion is that new roads do little to reduce congestion, and they will usually result in increased emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Kingham is seconded to the Ministry of Transport two days a week as their Chief Science Advisor. </span></em></p>Motorways were once seen as a way of reducing congestion in our towns and cities. But the more we build, the more they fill with drivers.Simon Kingham, Professor, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1401272020-06-25T12:19:22Z2020-06-25T12:19:22ZNew York opens traffic-clogged streets to people during pandemic, the city’s latest redesign in times of dramatic change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343779/original/file-20200624-133008-1g07e86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C179%2C4640%2C3046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Harvest Kitchen restaurant, on Manhattan's Upper West Side, making use of New York City's new policy of opening streets to walking, biking and dining.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/harvest-kitchen-restaurant-has-extended-its-outdoor-area-by-news-photo/1222125975?adppopup=true">Ron Adar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On some normally congested New York City streets, cars are gone, replaced by diners tentatively returning to restaurants – though only outside – after months of lockdown. On June 22, the city <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/nyc-enters-phase-2-reopening-outdoor-dining-barbershops-n1231755">entered phase two</a> of reopening after its severe coronavirus outbreak, allowing many businesses to resume operations with restrictions.</p>
<p>Permitting restaurants to spread into streets is one of several pandemic-induced initiatives designed to enable social distancing in this densely packed city. In May, New York launched its “<a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/pedestrians/openstreets.shtml#:%7E:text=Streets%20Opened%20for%20Social%20Distancing&text=Opening%20hours%20may%20vary%20by,Open%20Streets%20are%20in%20effect.&text=The%20Open%20Streets%20initiative%20is,BIDs%20and%20local%20community%20organizations.">Open Streets</a>” program, which will hand 100 miles of car-free streets to pedestrians and cyclists.</p>
<p>In a city often <a href="https://ny.curbed.com/2019/8/19/20812166/new-york-city-vision-zero-bike-street-safety">criticized</a> for letting <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/2019-was-extremely-deadly-year-nyc-cyclists-here-are-their-stories">cars dominate</a> – with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/us/new-york-city-pedestrian-deaths/index.html">deadly consequences</a> – these are fairly dramatic changes. Past efforts to protect New York pedestrians and cyclists have included lowering <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-officials-to-announce-street-safety-reforms-after-deaths-of-2-kids/2305965/">speed limits</a>, adding crosswalks and creating bike lanes – approaches that “sort” street users into their own spaces but do not fundamentally question the basic organization of city streets. </p>
<p>The pandemic has quieted both pedestrian and vehicle traffic, stimulating a bolder reconsideration of how streets should be used – at least temporarily. As <a href="https://www.holycross.edu/academics/programs/visual-arts/faculty/amy_d_finstein">my research on transportation and urban history</a> shows, the city has a long history of considering audacious designs to tame urban chaos. </p>
<h2>Moving above ground</h2>
<p>Between the 1870s and the 1930s, the city repeatedly adjusted to new types of transportation: first the railroad, then the automobile.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=961&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=961&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343782/original/file-20200624-132951-dthdat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=961&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bustling Broadway in the late 19th century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-states-of-america-broadway-in-new-york-street-scene-news-photo/985679260?adppopup=true">Bildagentur-online/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trains, which reached <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674588271">widespread use in the U.S. in the 1850s</a>, allowed people and goods to move further and more quickly than ever before. But speeding through cities they tangled with other street users, resulting in gruesome accidents between horses, carts and pedestrians. </p>
<p>A freight railroad that ran along New York City’s Eleventh Avenue from 1846 to 1941 was so notorious for killing pedestrians that the street earned the nickname “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/25/realestate/the-railroad-tracks-that-turned-a-street-into-death-avenue.html">Death Avenue</a>.”</p>
<p>To combat the train hazard, city and business leaders sought to provide separate spaces for different types of street users. Railroad magnates argued for <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300098273/downtown">elevating railroads above existing streets</a>, which required no time-consuming excavation. This solution created new problems, including noise, falling embers and the dangers of aerial train accidents.</p>
<p>In 1866, a hat merchant named Genin the Hatter had another idea: elevate people, not trains. Troubled by the dangers of crossing Broadway, he successfully lobbied New York to construct a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/nyregion/02broadway.html">pedestrian bridge across the wide downtown avenue</a>. But the cast iron footbridge lasted only a year before complaints about aesthetics and shadows compelled its removal.</p>
<p>Such piecemeal solutions could not fully address the complexities of street activity in late 19th-century New York, which already had nearly 4 million residents. But they did pilot some concepts that would reappear in later years – especially when the <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/down-the-asphalt-path/9780231083911">automobile soon arrived</a> to further complicate urban life. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343785/original/file-20200624-133002-bvi089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elevated train tracks and station at New York’s Greeley Square, now Herald Square, 1896.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/greeley-square-and-elevated-train-tracks-new-york-city-usa-news-photo/629456291?adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Utopian ideas</h2>
<p>Cars joined streets already teeming with pedestrians, horses and carts, peddlers, streetcars and elevated railways, with deadly results. New York City documented <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1921/compendia/statab/43ed.html">354 motor vehicle-related fatalities in 1915</a> and more than <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1930/compendia/statab/52ed.html">triple that in 1929</a>. In 2019, by contrast, 220 drivers, pedestrians and cyclists died in traffic accidents, according to <a href="https://vzv.nyc/">city data</a>.</p>
<p>Newspapers frequently published editorials about the threat of automobiles. In 1924, The Washington Post called “death by motorcar” a “national menace” while The New York Times compared car congestion to a <a href="https://search-proquest-com.holycross.idm.oclc.org/docview/103163814?accountid=11456.">giant cobra strangling its victim</a>.</p>
<p>City leaders responded to rising deaths by imposing <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/fighting-traffic">speed limits, restricting parking and creating one-way streets</a>. These changes, largely made in the late 1910s and 1920s, began to systematize the street chaos. </p>
<p>But throughout this period, creative architects, engineers and citizens were thinking bigger. In op-eds, books and journal articles, they proposed a wild assortment of designs questioning basic assumptions about how cities should work. </p>
<p>Some designs moved New York’s sidewalks to make more room for vehicles. These proposals included an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1908/11/29/archives/for-beauty-and-utility-in-new-york-city-charles-r-lamb-outlines.html">elevated promenade</a> along the Hudson River, sidewalks hung from the second stories of buildings and <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=2Kg1AAAAIAAJ&lpg=PA537&ots=lvB5gKVJuS&dq=arthur%20tuttle%20arcaded%20sidewalks&pg=PA536#v=onepage&q=arthur%20tuttle%20arcaded%20sidewalks&f=false">sidewalks that ran through their ground floors</a> so that adjoining streets could be widened. More high-tech ideas envisioned building <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b3611935&view=1up&seq=820">six-level streets</a> or creating futuristic <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/kings-views-of-new-york-1896-1915-brooklyn-1905-an-extraordinary-photographic-survey/oclc/609747002&referer=brief_results">blimp and airplane networks</a> accessed by elevator-served platforms. One proposal imagined adding highways and moving walkways <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b3611935&view=1up&seq=818">to rooftops</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343789/original/file-20200624-132955-18lku90.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1927 proposal for stacked avenues in Manhattan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b3611935&view=1up&seq=820">The American City/Hathitrust</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>New York architects Hugh Ferriss and Harvey Wiley Corbett fused aspects of many of these ideas in a series of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/990128?seq=1">utopian writings</a> and exhibits during the 1920s. The cities of their dreams had regularly spaced modern skyscrapers topped by rooftop gardens, all connected by multilevel streets and aerial pedestrian walkways.</p>
<h2>From dream to reality</h2>
<p>While none of these proposals came to fruition, they eventually informed some real projects in New York. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://tupress.temple.edu/book/20000000010059">West Side Elevated Highway</a>, constructed between 1927 and 1937, combined the earlier idea for a riverside pedestrian promenade with the need to address congestion around Manhattan’s shipping piers. Its elevated path from Canal Street northward sped cars for four miles above the chaos of local streets, while its street-level Art Deco decoration provided a new sleek waterfront identity. It was torn down in the 1970s.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343792/original/file-20200624-132951-iw37iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rockefeller Center, March 26, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-walk-along-5th-avenue-in-the-empty-plaza-in-front-of-news-photo/1215379878?adppopup=true">Gary Hershorn/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/987500">Rockefeller Center</a>, though, remains standing. Built in the 1930s, this development reordered 22 acres of midtown Manhattan, arranging skyscrapers, a performance venue, shops and restaurants around one central plaza. With multilevel pedestrian connections between spaces, it realized portions of Corbett and Ferriss’s ideas.</p>
<p>The still-popular <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24889363?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">High Line</a> unites two periods in New York’s transportation history. Built in 1934 as an elevated freight railroad, it closed in 1980 and was left to decay. In the early 2000s, the city revitalized the High Line as a garden-laden, aerial promenade that weaves between buildings and above streets, recalling the utopian plans from a century ago.</p>
<p>These are all precedents for New York’s current effort to transform its streets. Like banishing cars from some streets, many past ideas seemed exceedingly unlikely before they happened. The coronavirus pandemic has paused this bustling city long enough to again reframe what residents need to survive in a time of great change.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140127/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy D. Finstein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>First trains, then cars and, now, COVID-19 have all spurred New York to reimagine how its scarce space should be used – and what residents need to survive.Amy D. Finstein, Assistant Professor of Architectural History, College of the Holy CrossLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1407442020-06-21T20:07:08Z2020-06-21T20:07:08ZHow to avoid cars clogging our cities during coronavirus recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342329/original/file-20200617-23231-1kxt6cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C7%2C1503%2C949&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iain Lawrie</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As we re-open our economy and workers gradually return to workplaces, overall travel will increase. However, the need to <a href="https://translink.com.au/sites/default/files/assets/resources/travel-information/covid-safe-transport-plan.pdf">maintain social distancing</a> means public transport can’t operate at usual <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cool-it-andrews-urges-feds-as-victorians-surge-back-to-work-20200528-p54xgg.html">capacity</a>. And fears of crowded public transport will lead to commuters making a much higher proportion of trips in private vehicles – unless they are offered viable alternatives such as the ones we discuss here. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impact of physical distancing on public transport capacity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/respacing-cities-resilience-covid-19.pdf">International Transport Forum, OECD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our initial analysis (as yet unpublished) of Australia’s major cities suggests a shift to cars will produce severe traffic congestion if even a modest proportion of the workforce returns to their usual workplaces during the COVID-19 recovery. In this article, we suggest some public transport solutions to avoid congestion caused by a shift to car travel. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">Coronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Globally, this trajectory is already becoming apparent. As lockdowns are eased, car use is rising much more quickly than public transport use. The <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">latest figures</a> from cities as diverse as Berlin, Los Angeles, Chicago, Auckland and Sydney all show this.</p>
<h2>What are the implications of this trend?</h2>
<p>First, the shift to private vehicles will be a bigger problem in cities with centres traditionally served by public transport than dispersed, car-dominated regions. <a href="https://lab-work.github.io/therebound/">Modelling</a> by Vanderbilt University in the US showed an 85% shift of mass transit riders to cars would increase daily commute times by over sixty minutes in New York, but merely four minutes in Los Angeles. This is because public transport serves a mere <a href="https://censusreporter.org/profiles/40000US51445-los-angeles-long-beach-anaheim-ca-urbanized-area/">5%</a> of journeys to work in Los Angeles but <a href="https://censusreporter.org/profiles/16000US3651000-new-york-ny/">56%</a> in New York. </p>
<p>In cities that rely heavily on public transport, or even those with car-dominated suburbs but transit-dominated centres such as Sydney and Melbourne, a shift to cars for CBD trips will very quickly overwhelm the capacity of the road network. Pre-pandemic, 71% of trips to the Sydney CBD and 63% to Melbourne’s CBD <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EJourney%20to%20Work%20to%20Place%20of%20Work%7E60">were on public transport</a>. So, while travel volumes may remain well below pre-pandemic levels for some time, road traffic is recovering faster than other travel modes.</p>
<p>Sydney’s and Brisbane’s road traffic volumes have already returned largely to pre-pandemic levels even while most CBD offices remain empty. Melbourne isn’t far behind. Returning commuters are in for a shock. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342854/original/file-20200618-41204-1mjjcoh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342856/original/file-20200618-41217-wtc0uu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342858/original/file-20200618-41234-1wsxsfr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-transition-from-lockdown-is-a-fork-in-the-road-here-are-two-possible-outcomes-for-future-travel-139885">Cars: transition from lockdown is a fork in the road – here are two possible outcomes for future travel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/coronavirus-changing-the-way-we-move-around-our-cities-forever/12158612">commentators</a> suggest now may be the time to apply <a href="https://www.enotrans.org/article/covid-19-lessons-for-congestion-pricing/">congestion</a> <a href="https://reason.com/2020/05/19/is-america-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-traffic-apocalypse/">pricing</a> – charging a fee to use roads in peak periods. However, when many people are making travel decisions based on the health risks, such policy may not produce the desired behaviour change. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-gamification-can-make-transport-systems-and-choices-work-better-for-us-57663">How ‘gamification’ can make transport systems and choices work better for us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The alternative is to improve commuters’ public transport options, rather than trying to price congestion away. The aim should be to allow it to operate more effectively while still providing room for on-board social distancing. </p>
<p>This is no easy task, yet it may be politically and technically easier than rapidly bringing in a comprehensive road-pricing regime. Even with social distancing restrictions, public transport will use roads <a href="https://humantransit.org/2012/09/the-photo-that-explains-almost-everything.html">more efficiently</a> than private cars. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342324/original/file-20200617-23243-g5n4vc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This photo shows how much road space cars, buses and cyclists require to transport an equivalent number of people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.weride.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Canberra-Transport-Photo_x3-hi-res_2400px.jpg">Cycling Promotion Fund/We Ride Australia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The return to work must be gradual and supported by considerable flexibility in working hours. This will help manage peak demands. But on its own it’s not enough if frequent public transport services continue to be offered only during a limited commuter peak.</p>
<h2>More services, more often</h2>
<p>So, public transport services need to run at high frequencies for many more hours in the day. Some <a href="https://sensibletransport.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Policy-Note_IST_COVID-19_20.05.20.pdf">analysts</a> suggest services be run at peak frequencies for most of the day. </p>
<p>Many suburban bus services, particularly direct services along arterial roads, should run much more often than their existing peak offerings. Routes can be tweaked to remove unnecessary detours that lead to slow travel times. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These frequent, direct services should be supported by <a href="https://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/Announcements2/Service-updates/Public-transport-changes-in-response-to-coronavirus">rigorous cleaning</a>, <a href="https://transportnsw.info/covid-19">visual guidance</a> to maintain separation on platforms and within vehicles, and tools to <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-6368309/LNER-installs-seat-sensors-train-help-passengers-avoid-standing.html">help identify crowded vehicles</a>. </p>
<p>Most importantly, we need to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-01/how-tactical-transit-lanes-help-buses-beat-traffic">rapidly create “pop-up” dedicated bus lanes</a> right across metropolitan areas. These lanes allow buses to <a href="http://www.its.ucla.edu/publication/best-practices-in-implementing-tactical-transit-lanes/">avoid being held up</a> by increasing traffic volumes. Although bus lanes may reduce capacity for private vehicles, when buses run frequently they are a much more efficient use of <a href="https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/introduction/why/designing-move-people/">scarce road space</a>. </p>
<p>Faster travel times for public transport would, in turn, mean operators could deliver more frequent services with existing fleets and drivers. This would reduce the operational cost of allowing for social distancing. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">To limit coronavirus risks on public transport, here's what we can learn from efforts overseas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Frequent services on these pop-up corridors will provide a critical, time-competitive alternative to driving. Although not without its <a href="https://humantransit.org/2018/09/why-your-bus-network-may-never-improve.html">challenges</a>, <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-adds-20-miles-busways-and-bus-lanes-40-miles-short-mtas-request">implementing</a> a fast and frequent bus network is conceptually straightforward and the cost is modest compared to the congestion impacts it could offset. </p>
<p>This solution will require a nimble and co-operative approach from state and local transport authorities and private operators. Success will mean our transit-centred CBDs and district centres continue to function efficiently. </p>
<p>In the longer term, a fast and frequent metropolitan transit network will leave a lasting positive legacy, supporting carbon reduction and city-shaping investments such as Sydney’s <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/">Metro </a>and Brisbane’s <a href="https://crossriverrail.qld.gov.au/about/project-benefits/">Cross River Rail</a>. Failure will lead to crippling congestion that erodes the economic and social strength of our previously vibrant cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Lawrie undertakes contract work at the Victorian Department of Transport unrelated to his research focus. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from the ARC and other Australian and international research bodies and from state and local governments. </span></em></p>As COVID-19 restrictions are eased, cities face crippling congestion if people shun crowded public transport. More frequent and faster services, using innovations like pop-up bus lanes, can avoid this.Iain Lawrie, PhD Candidate, The University of MelbourneJohn Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1384152020-05-25T20:08:32Z2020-05-25T20:08:32ZCoronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335473/original/file-20200516-138624-gua1mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2174%2C0%2C5793%2C3440&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hazmat-team-protective-suits-decontaminating-public-1678610077">Shuuterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The coronavirus pandemic has affected our cities in profound ways. People adapted by <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/we-proved-we-can-work-from-home-why-do-we-need-to-go-back-to-the-office-20200515-p54ti0.html">teleworking</a>, shopping locally and <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">making only necessary trips</a>. One of the many challenges of recovery will be to build on the momentum of the shift to more sustainable practices – and transport will be a particular challenge. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335246/original/file-20200514-77251-rq41e5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reductions in trips from January to May, measured by change in trip routing requests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility">Apple Maps COVID-19 Mobility Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While restrictions are being eased, many measures in place today, including physical distancing and limits on group numbers, will remain for some time. As people try to avoid crowded spaces, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-is-it-safe-to-take-public-transport/12084418">public transport patronage</a> will suffer. Thousands of journeys a day will need to be completed by other means. </p>
<p>If people <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/14/new-yorkers-opt-for-cars-over-public-transport-in-coronavirus-times-">switch from public transport to cars</a>, road congestion will be even worse than before, emissions will soar, air quality will be poor and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-14/traffic-deaths-speeding-los-angeles-coronavirus-pandemic-vision-zero">road safety will suffer</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337237/original/file-20200524-124818-1uyamco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The capacity of mixed vehicle traffic is much lower than most people realise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/integrating-urban-public-transport-systems-cycling-roundtable-summary_0.pdf">International Transport Forum, OECD. Data from Botma and Papandrecht 1991 and GIZ calculations 2009; CAV = connected and automated vehicles, BRT = bus rapid transit. Source: Synergine for Auckland Transport 2015, adapted from ADB and GIZ 2011; Shladover, Su and Lu 2012</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Re-imagining our cities</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-let-coronavirus-kill-our-cities-heres-how-we-can-save-urban-life-137063">Cities are repurposing streets</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">meet higher demands</a> for <a href="http://www.pedestrian.melbourne.vic.gov.au/">walking</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/car-parks-out-footpaths-and-cycling-lanes-in-as-city-prepares-for-post-covid-commuters-20200507-p54qrp.html">cycling</a>. </p>
<p>But not everyone can walk or ride a scooter or bike to their destination. Public transport must remain at the heart of urban mobility. </p>
<p>We will have to rethink public transport design to enable physical distancing, even though it <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/respacing-cities-resilience-covid-19.pdf">reduces capacities</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336897/original/file-20200522-102628-10x5qv8.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impact of physical distancing on public transport capacity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/respacing-cities-resilience-covid-19.pdf">International Transport Forum, OECD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/19/public-transport-workers-must-be-protected-from-covid-19-as-passengers-return-union-warns">Public transport drivers</a> need protection. Some responses such as boarding from back doors and sanitising rolling stock are needed but <a href="https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-52645366">don’t reduce crowding</a>. Crowding at platforms, bus and tram stops also has to be avoided. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">To limit coronavirus risks on public transport, here's what we can learn from efforts overseas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Crowding on public transport puts lives at risk. A <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/B7DqC6X1LXuXlKX5IxBqAZ?domain=linkedin.com">recent study</a> that looked at smartcard data for the Metro in Washington DC showed that, with the same passenger demand as before the pandemic, only three initially infected passengers will lead to 55% of the passenger population being infected within 20 days. This would have alarming consequences. </p>
<p>More measures are needed. There are things we need to stop doing or start doing, and others that need to happen sooner. </p>
<p>Increasing capacities by running more services, where possible, will help. Staggering work hours will reduce peak demand. Transport demand management must also aim to <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">reduce overall need for travel</a> by having people continue to <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">work from home</a> if they can.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Managing passenger flow and decreasing waiting times will also help avoid crowding. Passenger-counting technologies can be used to monitor passenger load restrictions, control flow and stagger ridership. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l8X-81tTK2Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Passenger-counting technologies can be used to monitor and manage flows.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We need to start trying new solutions using smart technologies. Passengers could use <a href="https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/5404102/new-app-showing-empty-train-seats-not-available-on-south-coast-line/">apps</a> that let them find out <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-6368309/LNER-installs-seat-sensors-train-help-passengers-avoid-standing.html">how crowded a service is</a> before boarding, or to book a seat in advance. </p>
<p>Other solutions to trial include <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinehoward/2020/05/16/thermal-imaging-is-hot-photographs-of-a-fevered-time/?ss=education#2e7346495d69">thermal imaging</a> at train stations and bus depots to identify passengers with fever. There will be many technical and deployment challenges, but trials can identify issues and ease the transition.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336235/original/file-20200520-152292-o03v0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One solution for transport hubs is thermal imaging technology that detects passengers who have a fever.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/recording-thermal-camera-people-city-railway-530560618">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We need to accelerate digitalisation and automation of public transport. This includes solutions for contactless operations, automated train doors and passenger safety across the whole journey. </p>
<p>Public transport also has to be expanded and diversified to be effective in dense areas and deliver social value to residents. In some areas, it may function as a <a href="https://www.transitsystems.com.au/demand-responsive-transport-systems">demand-responsive service</a> and be <a href="https://infrastructuremagazine.com.au/2019/05/06/sa-to-trial-demand-responsive-transport/">more agile</a> in its ability to transport people safely and quickly. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Improving resilience</h2>
<p>The lessons we have learnt about adapting how we live and work should guide recovery efforts. The recovery must improve the resilience of public transport. </p>
<p>Infrastructure investments, which are crucial for rebuilding the economy, must target projects that protect against future threats. Public transport will need <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/coronavirus-changing-the-way-we-move-around-our-cities-forever/12158612">reliable financial investment</a> to provide quality of service and revive passenger confidence.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-public-transport-to-keep-running-operators-must-find-ways-to-outlast-coronavirus-134224">For public transport to keep running, operators must find ways to outlast coronavirus</a>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335478/original/file-20200516-138639-6kv0hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pandemic has shown how fragile urban systems like public transport are in the face of acute stresses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/city-melbourne-vicaustraliamay-25th-2018-crowds-1099621061">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Importantly, the harm this pandemic is causing has not been equitable. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/24/coronavirus-could-hit-worlds-most-vulnerable-people-hardest/">most vulnerable and the most disadvantaged</a> have been hit hardest by both its health and economic impacts. </p>
<p>While many people are able to work from home, staying at home remains a luxury many others cannot afford. People who need to return to work must be able to rely on safe public transport. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-most-affected-on-public-transport-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-133429">Who's most affected on public transport in the time of coronavirus?</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Building on momentum</h2>
<p>By the time the lockdown is over, many of our old habits will have changed. The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f43b8212-950a-11ea-af4b-499244625ac4">notion</a> that we need to leave home to work every day has been challenged. The new habits emerging today, if sustained, could help us solve tricky problems like traffic congestion and accessibility, which have challenged our cities for a long time. </p>
<p>If there’s one principle that should underpin recovery efforts, it should be to make choices today that in future we’d want us to have made. If driving becomes an established new habit, congestion will spike and persist, as will greenhouse gas emissions. Faced with these kinds of challenges, rash “business as usual” measures and behaviours will not protect us from this emergency or future crises. </p>
<p>Cities that seize this moment and boost investment in social infrastructure will enter the post-coronavirus world stronger, more equitable and more resilient. </p>
<p>Let us commit to shaping a recovery that rebuilds lives and promotes equality and sustainability. By building on sustainable practices and a momentum of behavioural change, we can avoid repeating the unsustainable mistakes of the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Transport for New South Wales, and Scope 3 Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>Some new habits we’ve seen emerging during the pandemic could help us solve tricky problems like traffic congestion, which have challenged our cities for a long time.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1279202020-01-05T16:50:01Z2020-01-05T16:50:01ZSelf-driving cars will not fix our transportation woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305255/original/file-20191204-70167-1sspxo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=101%2C331%2C3733%2C2427&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Widespread use of autonomous vehicles could increase or cut greenhouse gas emissions. It all depends on public policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s 2035, and you’re going to a movie. As you walk out the door, you reach for your phone instead of the car keys because you don’t have a car. Instead, you’ve ordered your ride to come to you. </p>
<p>The car that arrives has no driver or steering wheel. As you climb in, the electric motor silently comes to life, and the car whisks you into an aerodynamic peloton of vehicles, slipping through cross-traffic at intersections without stopping. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzzSao6ypE">utopian vision</a> is a <a href="https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation-executive-summary">common prediction</a> for the disruption of <a href="http://wordpress.ei.columbia.edu/mobility/files/2012/12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Aug-10-2012.pdf">today’s road transportation</a>. This future of autonomous, on-demand electric vehicles is tantalizing. It promises a hands-free solution to various transportation woes. </p>
<p>The prevailing belief is that a system of self-driving cars will solve several environmental and social problems without us needing to worry about messy stuff like politics, activism or changing our travel habits. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this future will almost certainly never come to pass. Self-driving cars, left to their own devices, will likely do more harm than good. To avoid that outcome, we’ll have to turn off autopilot and shape the system of autonomous mobility so that it best serves both our needs and the needs of the planet.</p>
<h2>More roads, more cars</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/04/gallery-1939-worlds-fair/">Futurama, a General Motors-sponsored diorama at the 1939 New York World’s Fair</a>, made a similar promise: fast and efficient highways would make traffic congestion and accidents a thing of the past. </p>
<p>Once these highways were actually built, however, <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">induced demand</a> quickly clogged them up, as people took advantage of the new roads to make new trips that they didn’t make before. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1939 Futurama exhibit, like today’s predictions about autonomous vehicles, promised an easy technical solution to transportation problems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Futurama_diorama_detail.jpg">(Richard Garrison/Wikimedia)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Autonomous vehicles risk a more dangerous version of the same phenomenon. Not only will efficient autonomous highways <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02513625.2018.1525197">tempt people</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2017.1291351">drive further</a>, but the ability to work — or even sleep — while travelling will make <a href="https://psrc.github.io/attachments/2014/TRB-2015-Automated-Vehicles-Rev2.pdf">people think</a> much <a href="https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AUVSI/3a47c2f1-97a8-4fb7-8a39-56cba0733145/UploadedImages/documents/pdfs/7-16-14%20AVS%20presentations/kenLaberteaux.pdf">less of a two-hour commute</a>. </p>
<p>Cars might also become less energy-efficient as they’re modified to meet the demands of users. Passengers may run them at higher speeds because they’re safer, which consumes more energy due to aerodynamic resistance. <a href="https://www.treehugger.com/urban-design/honda-iemobi-mobile-autonomous-living-room-and-future-self-driving-cars.html">Car manufacturers</a> may also begin to design <a href="https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/10/self-driving-cars-are-we-ready.pdf">larger vehicles</a> to accommodate mobile offices and bedrooms. </p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remove-car-lanes-restrict-vehicles-and-improve-transit-to-reduce-traffic-congestion-127873">Remove car lanes, restrict vehicles and improve transit to reduce traffic congestion</a>
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<p>This might be mitigated somewhat by electric vehicles, but that electricity may still come from fossil fuels. Plus, bigger vehicles with bigger batteries will produce more carbon emissions as a <a href="https://www.alternativesjournal.ca/energy-and-resources/your-electric-car-really-green">byproduct of their construction</a>. </p>
<p>These processes could, theoretically, be carbon-neutral, but that may not occur quickly enough. The safe bet is to reduce the number of kilometres travelled, rather than increasing them.</p>
<p>There’s also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.02.012">the threat</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001">an empty</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9937-9">vehicle travelling many kilometres</a>. Why search for a parking spot when you could send your car home? </p>
<p>Scholars who have used computer models and other techniques to predict the environmental impact of autonomous vehicles have found the mass use of private self-driving cars could <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67216.pdf">lead to increases</a> in carbon emissions of up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001">200 per cent</a>.</p>
<h2>Robo-taxi rejection</h2>
<p>Most of the utopian visions of self-driving cars assume that they will be shared, rather than owned privately. This would be a more sustainable option. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/10/self-driving-cars-are-we-ready.pdf">people are attached to their cars</a>. They like having a vehicle that is instantly dispatchable, that they can use as a mobile storage locker, and that signals their social status. </p>
<p>Shared vehicles might also be uncomfortable. Because of the risk of vandalism and mess caused by unsupervised passengers, robo-taxis might be equipped with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5382192">hard plastic</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.09.005">bus-style seats</a>, rather than the plush upholstered interiors that motorists are accustomed to. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Lyft self-driving car drives on the streets in Palo Alto, Calif., in December 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Mobility_PeakCarOwnership_Report2017.pdf">Surveys</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2016.01.019">show</a> that if autonomous taxis cost US$1 per mile, only 10 per cent of respondents would give up their car to use them. Even if they were completely free, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2017.01.010">a quarter of motorists would still keep their cars</a>.</p>
<p>Autonomous taxis are far more likely to win over cyclists, pedestrians and transit riders. But this would likely make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.418">those people’s trips less sustainable</a>. </p>
<p>None of this will be helped by the fact that autonomous vehicle enthusiasts envision a future of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3141%2F2381-10">road systems</a> free of <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-market-based-approach-to-accommodate-user-in-Vasirani/43c28122ab2c7bae2a11e7fa427e087de01a499f">traffic lights</a>, which will rarely provide space for cyclists or pedestrians. </p>
<h2>Best-case scenario</h2>
<p>But what if your autonomous trip to the theatre looked a bit different? </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_8">model being explored</a> by <a href="https://www.bcg.com/en-ca/publications/2016/transportation-travel-tourism-automotive-will-autonomous-vehicles-derail-trains.aspx">many scholars</a> and <a href="https://e-estonia.com/driverless-public-bus-tallinn/">experiments</a> in <a href="http://www.citymobil-project.eu/">Europe</a>, the autonomous vehicle that picks you up on your way to the movie theatre would be more like a last-mile shuttle for public transit.</p>
<p>It would move slowly but comfortably, picking up multiple passengers on its way to the local transit hub, where you would board a fast and efficient light rail line. You would still arrive at the movie with time to spare. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An autonomous shuttle service in Vincennes Woods, in Paris, fills the gaps in commuter transportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This model could supplement existing forms of sustainable mobility rather than competing with them, making car ownership less mandatory. And because owning a car <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.05.006">predisposes people towards using a car</a>, this could be a powerful way to support sustainable transportation. </p>
<p>Shared, slow, autonomous shuttles integrated with public transit and other forms of sustainable mobility would <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_8">get around a lot of the technology’s current hurdles</a>. They could, for example, drive slowly enough that there would very little risk of them hurting or killing anyone. </p>
<p>If paired with other forms of sustainable urban transportation policy, such as committed support for bike lanes, as well as fast, efficient, and cheap public transit networks, they could play a key role in helping to realize a transportation scenario with vastly reduced car use, which could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.08.020">our best shot</a> at averting the worst consequences of climate change. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-vehicles-canada-tops-the-charts-for-poor-fuel-economy-115213">When it comes to vehicles, Canada tops the charts for poor fuel economy</a>
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<p>This outcome, however, will not emerge autonomously. It will require us to actively shape the mobility system through regulation, activism and planning. </p>
<p>It will require pushing back against vested interests that support dependence on private cars. And it will require us to reconsider our travel habits. </p>
<p>In short: Autonomous vehicles will not automatically drive us to a better transportation future. We’ll have to take the wheel ourselves.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Roberts receives funding from The Transition Accelerator, a research organisation devoted to understanding, envisioning, and actively developing radical low-carbon transitions in Canada. He works with them as a postdoctoral research assistant, studying low-carbon personal mobility. He has also been involved with the activist groups Extinction Rebellion, Our Time, and Courage Coalition.</span></em></p>The sweeping introduction of driverless cars could see more vehicles on the road, driving longer distances. But smart planning could solve some of transit-associated environmental and social problems.Cameron Roberts, Researcher in Sustainable Transportation, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1257182019-11-10T18:55:38Z2019-11-10T18:55:38ZSmart tech systems cut congestion for a fraction of what new roads cost<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298795/original/file-20191027-113980-130djx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart transport solutions make better use of existing infrastructure and reduce the need to build expensive new roads. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stock.adobe.com/ee/images/traffic-lights-on-bridge/544070">AdobeStock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects">new transport projects</a> governments are constantly announcing are <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australian-infrastructure-expensive/">expensive</a>. In the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">Victorian</a> elections, the returned state governments’ transport infrastructure promises added up to A$165 billion. What’s mostly missing from the promised transport solutions is smart technology that provides higher benefits at a fraction of the cost – when retrofitting existing roads in particular. The benefit-to-cost ratio can be more than a dozen times greater than for a new road. </p>
<p>Clearly, infrastructure spending helps to drive the economy. These projects also deliver benefits to the community, including increased road safety, shorter travel times and fewer delays. </p>
<p>The economic merit of these projects is usually captured using a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR). For example, the BCR of the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-projects-bigger-bills-massive-construction-boom-comes-at-a-cost-20190610-p51w5d.html">A$15.8 billion</a> <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/north-east-link">North East Link</a> road project in Melbourne is estimated to be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/north-east-link-at-risk-of-becoming-financial-disaster-economist-20190726-p52b6a.html">1.25</a> – for every A$1 invested, A$1.25 is returned in benefits to the economy and community. For the Melbourne Metro rail tunnel, a best-case <a href="https://metrotunnel.vic.gov.au/about-the-project/faq">BCR of 3.3</a> has been reported.</p>
<p>But are we getting good value for money? Could cheaper alternatives deliver more benefits? </p>
<h2>Technology offers smarter, cheaper solutions</h2>
<p>Technology offers transport solutions that provide higher benefits at a fraction of the cost of building new infrastructure. Collectively known as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOMamTXK5T8">intelligent transport systems</a>, these are widely recognised today as better answers for smart transport outcomes. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XOMamTXK5T8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Intelligent transport systems can have positive impacts on the safety, efficiency and environmental performance of transport.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/infrastructure-productivity">comparing</a> different “congestion-busting” options, “building more roads” provides, on average, a BCR of 3.0. This is dwarfed by the much higher BCR values of tech solutions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Low_Carbon_Mobility_for_Future_Cities.html?id=g8NIDgAAQBAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y">Source: Low Carbon Mobility for Future Cities: Principles and Applications (Dia, H. ed, 2017), adapted from Infrastructure Productivity: how to save $1 trillion a year (McKinsey, 2013)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/innovation/everydaycounts/edc-1/asct.cfm">Adaptive traffic signal control</a> allows <a href="https://youtu.be/lZtOgqbNMVE">traffic signals</a> to change based on actual traffic demand. This yields, on average, a BCR of 40. </p>
<p>Traffic signals along a route can be coordinated to create “<a href="https://youtu.be/PQ-HBC6QGHo?t=12">green waves</a>” for platoons of vehicles to travel without stopping. These solutions are effective for congested cities that experience rapid traffic growth and changing traffic patterns. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OSL1dS8rqdk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simulation of adaptive traffic signals</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.itsinternational.com/sections/nafta/features/integrated-corridor-management-to-enhance-travel-efficiency/">Corridor management systems</a> use technology to control networks of motorways and urban roads. The average BCR is 24.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways">managed motorways</a>, <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/coordinated-ramp-signals">ramp signals</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aUyMJwZ8_s">variable speed limit signs</a> and <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/traveller-information-for-motorists">traveller information systems</a> are <a href="https://youtu.be/iFL2CZfJZD8">proven tools</a> to respond in real time to changing traffic conditions. In <a href="https://www.transmax.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Case-Study_Smart-Motorways-.pdf">one case</a>, a managed motorway reduced travel times by 42% and accidents by 30%. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pahIsJEFEMU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Active motorway management improves the performance of existing roads.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/lane-and-speed-management-for-incidents">Traffic incident management</a>, which has a BCR of 21, includes technologies that aid quick detection and removal of crashes. They also detect other incidents such as broken-down vehicles or spilled loads that reduce road capacity. The systems rely on smart <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X97000168">software</a> that analyses sensor data in real time. </p>
<p><a href="http://ntimc.transportation.org/Pages/NTIMCPublicationsandProducts.aspx">Benefits</a> include a 40% reduction in time to detect incidents. The technology also <a href="http://ntimc.transportation.org/Documents/Benefits11-07-06.pdf">reduces incident duration by 23%</a> and <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/481658">road crashes by 35%</a>.</p>
<h2>Combining tech solutions magnifies benefits</h2>
<p>When solutions are combined, benefits are amplified. The <a href="https://sunguide.info/annual-reports/district-six-its-annual-report/">Florida Department of Transportation</a> implements a transport technology program on its networks. The solutions include incident management, ramp signalling, traveller information and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdVDEU5UVb4&feature=youtu.be&t=50">express lanes</a>. Reduced incident duration and traffic delays are among the key benefits. </p>
<p>In 2018, the benefits of this program totalled almost <a href="https://sunguide.info/reports/annual-reports/District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report/2018-District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report.pdf">US$3.1 billion</a> (A$4.5 billion). The costs were <a href="https://sunguide.info/reports/annual-reports/District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report/2018-District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report.pdf">US$70.3 million</a> (A$102 million). That’s a BCR of 43.7. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benefit-cost ratios of transport technology solutions implemented over a decade by Florida Department of Transportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/McKinsey/Industries/Capital%20Projects%20and%20Infrastructure/Our%20Insights/Infrastructure%20productivity/MGI%20Infrastructure_Full%20report_Jan%202013.ashx">cost</a> of implementing technology solutions on the <a href="https://www.roads.org.uk/motorway/m42">M42 motorway</a> was US$150 million (A$218 million) and took two years to complete. Widening the road to produce the same outcome would have taken 10 years and cost US$800 million (A$1.16 billion).</p>
<h2>A shift in priorities is needed</h2>
<p>Considerable investment in transport infrastructure is still required. It should be guided by strong business cases and aligned with community values and expectations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">A closer look at business cases raises questions about 'priority' national infrastructure projects</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, technology is getting to the point where it’s making a serious difference in tackling the mega challenges facing our cities. Its role must be prioritised. </p>
<p>The benefits are compelling. Intelligent technology systems improve the use of existing assets and increase their operational life. They enhance traveller experience and reduce reliance on building new roads. And they deliver superior value for money.</p>
<p>But widespread deployment of these technologies is still limited. To spur change and unlock value, we must move beyond a project-by-project approach. </p>
<h2>Learn from the best</h2>
<p>Governments can be guided by <a href="https://itif.org/publications/2010/01/09/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent">leading nations</a> in this field such as South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Their citizens experience the benefits every day. Smart transport solutions improve their quality of life through easier travel, less congestion and more reliable services. </p>
<p>The recurring policy themes in these countries include a national vision of smart infrastructure and commitment to funding. They prioritise investment in research and trials, standards development and partnerships with industry. These are key factors in the success of their tech-driven transport solutions. </p>
<p>These are the policies and investments Australia should prioritise. They will modernise our transport systems in innovative ways that lift our economy and living standards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, and Transport for New South Wales.</span></em></p>Faced with the eye-watering costs of building infrastructure, it makes sense to turn to much more cost-effective smart technology to get traffic flowing.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258742019-11-03T18:54:58Z2019-11-03T18:54:58ZHow we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299369/original/file-20191030-138168-hq8p3r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Car owners' attachment to driving and the willingness of others to switch from public transport could confound rosy predictions for autonomous vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/adelaide-south-australia-july-27-2019-1466462240?src=srX7g0tCsTO2lfuw4YzG9Q-1-15">Steven Giles/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a reasonable expectation that autonomous vehicles will dominate the future of transport. Utopian visions suggest these driverless vehicles will lead to dramatic changes to our cities and their transportation. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles operating on a network would allow traffic to move safely and seamlessly through cities. They would use less space per vehicle. Traffic flow would be unhindered by traffic lights or other traditional driver signals. </p>
<p>More efficient transportation would use less fuel. Urban spaces could be repurposed as parking needs virtually disappear.</p>
<p>But this utopian vision depends on a range of factors. In particular, these predictions largely rely on how current car drivers respond to the advent of autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Our research</a> suggests people’s attitudes to driving and their cars could limit the predicted benefits to traffic flow and city efficiency, at least during the initial transition to driverless vehicles. </p>
<h2>What did the research look at?</h2>
<p>The research uses the city of Adelaide as a test case. We surveyed commuter preferences for the acceptance and use of driverless vehicles, as compared with their current preferences. </p>
<p>We then developed two scenarios. One is for the medium to long term, when vehicles are fully autonomous. The other is for the short-term transitional phase, during which a mix of conventional and driverless vehicles share the roads. </p>
<p>Using traffic-flow data for Adelaide, we analysed the implications of a shift towards driverless vehicles for: </p>
<ul>
<li>traffic flow</li>
<li>the number of vehicles needed to service commuter demands</li>
<li>parking</li>
<li>broader land use in the city centre.</li>
</ul>
<p>Adelaide is unusual, as a result of its <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/18907622?q&versionId=45120027">history as a planned city</a>, in having a discrete number of entry and exit points. This allows us to map more accurately average daily traffic flows into and out of the city centre. </p>
<p>Our analysis focuses on three of the city’s gateways, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The three Adelaide city gateways analysed for the research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We measured flows through these intersections on a typical day. Using minute-by-minute real-time data, monitored at traffic signals, we created a picture of typical traffic flows into and out of the CBD. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic flows at gateway site into and out of Adelaide city (Unley Rd/South Terrace).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adelaide City Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also surveyed commuters to discern their current transport preferences versus their perceptions of the hypothetical future. </p>
<p>Combining this information, we then describe possible outcomes of the transition to automated vehicles.</p>
<h2>What did the survey find?</h2>
<p>Below is a summary of the survey of a representative sample of 526 regular commuters into the Adelaide CBD.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>We queried respondents’ willingness to carshare by taking advantage of common knowledge of real-world company Uber. </p>
<p>We also investigated respondents’ attitudes by positing a scenario in which driverless vehicles are the norm and conventional driving is a luxury. We assessed likely resistance to autonomous vehicles by considering their willingness to pay to continue to drive traditional vehicles in this scenario. </p>
<p>Key results are shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Attitudes and costs will shape transition</h2>
<p>Two observations flow from the responses. </p>
<p>First, it seems likely drivers’ prevailing attitudes to vehicle ownership may be influencing their attitudes to autonomous vehicles. For many, their car represents a status symbol. They feel a strong personal attachment to it.</p>
<p>Second, cost may be a crucial factor in take-up of driverless vehicles. As costs fall, most commuters might bow to financial pressure to shift to autonomous vehicles. However, a minority might lobby to keep a mix of driverless and conventional vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests Adelaide could reduce its current vehicle fleet by as much as 76% in the utopian driverless future. This is due to current high car dependence and long commuting times and distances at peak periods. </p>
<p>Yet some predicted benefits, notably the very large reduction in vehicle numbers and better traffic flows, might not be achieved in the near to medium term. This is due to uncertainty about how the transition to a totally driverless city will be achieved and how long it will take. </p>
<p>Key factors are commuter attitudes to driving and autonomous vehicles, the price of the technology, and consumer attitudes to car sharing. Attitudes to car ownership and driving appear to be central to how the transition will play out. </p>
<p>The survey suggests the pleasure of driving themselves, which a substantial minority of Adelaide drivers are unwilling to forgo, could limit the benefits that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2018.1466835">much of the academic literature</a> optimistically predicts. </p>
<p>Public transport may also be adversely affected as riders switch to driverlesss vehicles. This shift could increase vehicle flows in peak periods, making congestion worse during the transition to complete adoption. </p>
<p>We support the <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">oft-suggested</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">argument</a> that large-scale adoption of driverless vehicles risks stimulating an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">increase in urban sprawl</a>. In the city centre, parking demand is likely to reduce greatly, allowing more diverse land uses and intensification of economic activity. But parking outside the CBD might increase, as driverless vehicles need not park near their users’ or owners’ workplace, at the expense of amenity. </p>
<p>Our analysis strongly suggests urban policy will be needed to counter the potential negative effects of introducing driverless vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raul A. Barreto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scenarios based on a survey of Adelaide commuters and analyses of traffic flows show it’s possible the congestion could get worse in the transition to driverless vehicles.Raul A. Barreto, Senior Lecturer, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1252292019-10-28T00:43:42Z2019-10-28T00:43:42ZThe hidden traffic impacts of private schooling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298221/original/file-20191023-149555-ldqkhx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5406%2C3493&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The school run for private school students is typically much longer than for government school students.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">kryzhov/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Australia today, just over <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4221.02018?OpenDocument">40% of secondary school children and almost 30% of primary school children</a> attend a private school. By contrast, in the UK <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/britain-is-becoming-more-meritocratic-not-less/">only 7% of children are privately educated</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/cities-research-institute/research/transport-group">Our research</a> shows not only do more students travel by car to private secondary schools in Australia, their car trips are almost twice as long as for government school students. As these trips are in peak hour, private schooling has a disproportionate impact on traffic congestion.</p>
<p>Commonwealth subsidies of private schools and their charitable status have underpinned skyrocketing enrolments. Questions over <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-wealthy-private-schools-and-hospitals-have-charity-status-in-australia-73055">whether private schools should pay tax</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/private-schooling-has-little-long-term-pay-off-30303">why they offer questionable graduate outcomes</a>, their tendency towards “<a href="https://theconversation.com/data-shows-white-flight-to-private-schools-979">white flight</a>” and social polarisation, and basic fairness have long been debated. </p>
<p>But what if, in weighing up the pros and cons of private schooling, and in calculating their economic costs versus benefits, we’ve all missed something rather important? Until now, no one has considered the impacts on city traffic. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/children-in-the-car-era-bad-for-them-and-the-planet-105377">Children in the car era: bad for them and the planet</a>
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<p>We’re helping the Queensland government improve its main transport models for Brisbane and southeast Queensland. Experts use these models to assess the best policies and projects to try to save us from congestion and to provide access to the goods, jobs and services we all need in life. </p>
<h2>What did the research find?</h2>
<p>We are looking at how one might better model school travel. To do so we explored the latest data from the <a href="https://www.data.qld.gov.au/dataset?q=household%20travel%20survey&sort=score%20desc%2C%20metadata_modified%20desc">Queensland Household Travel Survey</a>.
The datasets include all the trips to school made by over 3,000 primary and secondary school children. These surveys do not report if the child went to a public or private school. But we used advanced computing methods to match the school trip destinations with a set of known public and private school locations in the South East Queensland region. This created the first set of public-versus-private school trips we know of. </p>
<p>We could then look at the share of trips made by walking, cycling, public transport and car. We were also able to report the distances travelled to the different school types. </p>
<p>We presented our results in Canberra at the <a href="https://www.conferenceco.com.au/2019ATRF/">Australasian Transport Research Forum</a>.</p>
<p>At the primary school level, where fewer children attend private schools and the lower-cost Catholic school system plays a bigger role, the differences are modest. A slightly greater share of children are driven to private schools, but the average distance for those car trips is only around one kilometre more. It’s a problem, but one of similar scale to the unsustainable and unhealthy journeys made to public primary schools across Australia. </p>
<p>At secondary school level, where the non-Catholic independent schools have greater market share, only 1.5% more children are driven to private secondary schools (56.5% to 54.9%) and a few more drive themselves. But the car trips to those schools are almost twice as long as to the public schools. </p>
<p>The private secondary school children are travelling 7.8km each way, on average, to get to and from school. As this is school travel, it happens in the morning peak hour, the worst time for traffic congestion in our cities. Private secondary schooling appears to have a highly disproportionate impact. </p>
<p>The landscape of private schooling in southeast Queensland is problematic. Newer private schools have opened in odd locations on the edges of existing communities, or well beyond the suburban fringe. Even some of the older established <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Public_Schools_Association_of_Queensland">GPS</a> schools (the “elite” ones) are far from public transport. A few offer private buses, but many parents are left with little choice. They have to chauffeur their children. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-the-average-australian-family-spend-up-to-22-000-every-year-on-transport-64233">FactCheck: does the average Australian family spend up to $22,000 every year on transport?</a>
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<h2>Does the extra car travel matter?</h2>
<p>Education departments probably don’t care. But if governments are focused on reducing congestion, which their transport departments all are, and if they are looking to reduce school-related congestion effects, then private secondary schools are the worst offenders. </p>
<p>We can’t just look to the transport departments to fix such problems. They’re not responsible for creating the unsustainable car-based schooling landscape they somehow must try to serve. </p>
<p>It should also worry us for the individuals involved. Car-based travel is far from optimal for children’s development. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">Designing suburbs to cut car use closes gaps in health and wealth</a>
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<p>A litany of studies show physically active travel such as walking and cycling, including to and from public transport, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jpah.2015-0043">is better for physical and mental health</a>, as well as for social connectedness. The links between <a href="https://doi.org/10.14485/HBPR.2.1.3">children’s physical activity and student learning</a> are also well established.</p>
<p>Given road congestion costs in Australia are expected to exceed <a href="https://www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AAA-Congestion-Report-2018-FINAL.pdf">A$30 billion a year by 2030</a>, we suggest the congestion costs of Australia’s private school funding model should be fully calculated, costed and included when we weigh up the costs and benefits. The Commonwealth has options should it wish to tighten up in other ways. This would include not financially supporting any new private schools located far from existing communities or good public transport services.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125229/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Burke receives funding from the Queensland Government Department of Main Roads, the Motor Accident and Insurance Commission, the City of Gold Coast, Transport for NSW, Queensland Airports Limited and the Australian Research Council. He has memberships of voluntary committees with the National Heart Foundation, the Australasian Transport Research Forum and the Pedestrian and Bicycle Transport Institute of Australasia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yiping Yan is the recipient of an embedded work placement at the Queensland Government Department of Transport and Main Roads.</span></em></p>An analysis of trips to school has found the extra time and distance private secondary school students travel is a significant contributor to morning peak-hour congestion.Matthew Burke, Associate Professor, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityYiping Yan, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1248942019-10-13T19:02:36Z2019-10-13T19:02:36ZThree charts on: why congestion charging is fairer than you might think<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296576/original/file-20191010-188829-1vo0hj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Peak-time drivers to the CBDs of Sydney and Melbourne typically earn much more than the average worker.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/long-exposure-blurred-vehicle-motion-on-674535700?src=dPG27nyIYh-5-qf5ZsjmXA-1-5">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Congestion charging should be introduced in Australia’s largest cities, as Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/why-its-time-for-congestion-charging">latest report</a> shows. Our analysis also finds that the people who commute to the Melbourne and Sydney CBDs by driving are two to three times as likely to earn six-figure salaries as other Australian workers.</p>
<p>One of the main concerns about charging drivers who use the busiest roads at the busiest times has been about fairness. But sensible congestion charges could be designed to avoid burdening financially vulnerable people who lack alternatives to using particular roads at busy times.</p>
<p>Congestion charging is gaining traction in cities around the world as a proven method to manage congestion. <a href="https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop08047/02summ.htm">London, Singapore, Stockholm</a> and <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2015/09/milan-abruptly-suspended-congestion-pricing-and-traffic-immediately-soared/404521/">Milan</a> all have congestion charging schemes. New York City legislators have approved plans to introduce it in <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-05-30/new-york-city-gets-nations-first-congestion-pricing-plan">Manhattan</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/traffic-congestion-reconsidered-111921">Traffic congestion reconsidered</a>
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<h2>It’s better than building new infrastructure</h2>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne are big, global cities, but with growth and prosperity comes congestion. The solution from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-promises-for-election-2019-the-good-the-bad-and-the-downright-ugly-115138">federal</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">Victorian governments</a> has been to throw money at huge infrastructure projects. Politicians like promising infrastructure because large benefits can be targeted at key voters, while <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/roads-to-riches/">the costs are spread across all taxpayers</a>.</p>
<p>But this means many people are paying to alleviate some people’s congestion. And the relief from new infrastructure tends to be short-lived. In Australia’s fast-growing cities, extra public transport capacity at peak times gets chewed up quickly, while new freeways tend to fill with new traffic soon after opening. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">Do more roads really mean less congestion for commuters?</a>
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<p>This doesn’t mean governments should stop investing in infrastructure. But it does raise the question of whether spending billions of taxpayer dollars is the best or fairest way to tackle congestion.</p>
<p>We usually think of congestion as a force that slows us down, without thinking about how we slow everyone else around us. Congestion charging fixes this by charging a modest fee to use the busiest roads. Drivers then have to decide whether it’s worth making their trip at that time on that road. </p>
<p>Drivers who need to travel at peak times are always able to do so – they just need to pay a fee. Heavy users will end up paying more for using an in-demand resource. The most flexible drivers will save money by travelling later, or elsewhere, or by another mode. And this means getting out of everybody else’s way.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-wide-trial-shows-how-road-use-charges-can-reduce-traffic-jams-86324">City-wide trial shows how road use charges can reduce traffic jams</a>
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<p>Charging is also fairer than the licence-plate approach of Mexico City or Beijing, where cars are banned from driving on certain days depending on their licence plate numbers. These heavy-handed restrictions ignore the fact that people’s travel needs vary from day to day. Why ban a driver on the day of a job interview?</p>
<h2>But what about all the drivers on low incomes?</h2>
<p>It’s fair to ask whether congestion charging will burden the most vulnerable people in society. And the answer depends on the design of the scheme.</p>
<p>First, the people who we should really worry about are those who: are struggling financially; frequently or urgently need to travel on charged roads or to a charged area; and lack good alternatives to driving at that time on those roads.</p>
<p>A sensible congestion charge would target only the busiest roads and areas – think central business districts (CBDs), major freeways and key arterial routes – and only at times of high demand such as peak hour.</p>
<p>So if Sydney or Melbourne were to introduce a peak-period congestion charge around their CBDs, how many vulnerable people would be affected? Hardly any.</p>
<p>Our research shows the drivers who would pay the charge tend to be doing just fine. It’s mostly commuters and people driving as part of their job – think tradespeople and couriers. Those travelling for work could pass the cost on to their customers – every tradie driving to the CBD would face the same charge, so no one would gain or lose a competitive advantage.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-parcel-delivery-vans-for-clogging-up-city-traffic-look-to-the-tradies-123776">Don't blame parcel delivery vans for clogging up city traffic, look to the tradies</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Most CBD drivers are well-off</h2>
<p>And the CBD commuters? They tend to earn much more than the typical Australian. </p>
<p>Grattan Institute analysis shows most people driving to the Sydney CBD for work each day earn six-figure salaries. Their median income is nearly A$2,500 a week – about A$1,000 a week more than the typical income for full-time workers in Sydney. </p>
<p>It’s a similar story in Melbourne. The median full-time worker driving to the CBD earns nearly A$2,000 a week – about A$650 more than the typical full-time worker in Melbourne.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296601/original/file-20191011-188835-frfve2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>And these CBD commuters are also generally well-served by public transport. The CBD is the most accessible location in Sydney and Melbourne, with multiple train lines and bus or tram routes running through it. </p>
<p>That’s why most people travel to the CBD by public transport. In Sydney, barely one in six full-time CBD workers actually commute by private vehicle. In Melbourne, it’s only a quarter. But these workers typically earn a lot more than the people on CBD-bound buses, trams and trains.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296358/original/file-20191010-188823-11gu703.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/why-its-time-for-congestion-charging">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Perhaps surprisingly, drivers to the CBD are more likely to come from inner, richer parts of the city – think Mosman and Double Bay, not Penrith or Parramatta. It’s the same in Melbourne: more people drive from Kew and Richmond than Broadmeadows or Dandenong. Even those driving in from lower-income areas typically earn more than most of their neighbours.</p>
<p>This means the number of genuinely disadvantaged people who would be burdened by a congestion charge is small. As for one-off trips to the CBD – maybe for a specialist appointment – these are by definition infrequent and can often be rescheduled to the middle of the day. </p>
<p>State governments should consider discounts for low-income people with impaired mobility. However, wide-ranging exemptions would badly undermine the effectiveness of the congestion charge – <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/04/londons-congestion-charge-needs-updating/557699/">as happened in London</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296357/original/file-20191010-188792-2qbjjm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/why-its-time-for-congestion-charging">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Congestion charging is a smarter way to improve Australia’s largest cities and fears that it would be unfair are overblown. It should be the centrepiece of a mixed strategy to tackle congestion. The NSW and Victorian governments should introduce <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg748jat-metro-mcla.36?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">cordon charging</a> around the CBDs of their capitals within the next five years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flexible-working-the-neglected-congestion-busting-solution-for-our-cities-122130">Flexible working, the neglected congestion-busting solution for our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>Commuters who drive to and from the CBD typically earn much more than most. Concerns about the fairness of charging drivers who use these busy roads at peak times are overblown.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteJames Ha, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1237762019-09-25T20:41:53Z2019-09-25T20:41:53ZDon’t blame parcel delivery vans for clogging up city traffic, look to the tradies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293905/original/file-20190924-51410-1qqku9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C182%2C1599%2C1015&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Parcel delivery vehicles makeup a small fraction of commercial traffic in our cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/amatuerphotographer/2079079910/">Flickr/Andrew Dallos</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://auspost.com.au/business/marketing-and-communications/access-data-and-insights/ecommerce-trends">rise in online shopping</a> is <a href="https://time.com/5481981/online-shopping-amazon-free-shipping-traffic-jams/">often blamed</a> for an increase in the number of parcel delivery vehicles clogging up our busy city roads.</p>
<p>But a <a href="https://diepresse.com/home/motor/nutzfahrzeuge/5691225/Studie_Pakete-besser-als-ihr-Ruf">study we at Vienna University carried out</a> for a European postal service found parcel delivery vehicles made up only a fraction (0.8%) of a city’s traffic flow. Tradespeople and other services were more than seven times more likely to be making up the business traffic.</p>
<p>Yet the claim that parcel delivery plays a significant part in urban road traffic is used <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-42245367">regularly in reports</a>. Hopefully our study can help to change the attitude. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fancy-an-e-change-how-people-are-escaping-city-congestion-and-living-costs-by-working-remotely-123165">Fancy an e-change? How people are escaping city congestion and living costs by working remotely</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who’s on our city roads?</h2>
<p>The unfair focus on parcel delivery neglects other commercial sectors using vehicles on a city’s roads for transport and parking. In fact, there is a lack of studies investigating specifically to what extent parcel delivery impacts and contributes to urban road traffic in major cities worldwide.</p>
<p>To examine the true impact of parcel delivery – technically known as CEP for courier, express and parcel deliveries – our team at the Vienna University of Economics in Business was commissioned by the Austrian postal organisation to study the traffic composition in Vienna, Austria, between March and June 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293907/original/file-20190924-51438-1y5rw81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Busy traffic in Vienna, Austria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chagiajose/2476321777/">Flickr/Cha gi Jos</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The goal of the study was to identify the share of parcel delivery and other specific categories of light commercial vehicles used in the city.</p>
<p>The city’s traffic was videoed and manually counted at key times over a 15 week period on main and secondary roads. In addition, we used secondary data from the city of Vienna for validation. </p>
<p>The results showed passenger cars accounted for 86.5% of urban road traffic. The remaining share of light and heavy commercial vehicles comprised 13.5% of traffic.</p>
<p><iframe id="Mbh2L" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Mbh2L/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Of that, we found parcel delivery vehicles accounted for only 0.8% of the traffic. This clearly contradicts the often-heard and reported claim that they are a main contributor to urban congestion and delays. </p>
<p>Other light commercial vehicles played a much more significant part in urban road traffic.</p>
<p>Tradesmen and technicians had the largest share among light commercial vehicles with 6.0% of traffic. This is more than seven times higher than the share of parcel delivery. </p>
<p>Any transport policies that aim to deal with traffic reduction should consider all vehicle categories and the respective industry specific logistics.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293911/original/file-20190925-51421-11g6ofv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Those tradespeople utes get everywhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/9815352@N03/6683869767/">Flickr/Ryan Phillips</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From Austria to Australia</h2>
<p>Some may argue that European cities differ from Australian cities, but we believe our findings are also relevant to cities here and in other industrialised counties.</p>
<p>For example, Vienna is not that different to Brisbane, in Queensland. Vienna is a city with <a href="https://www.wien.gv.at/english/social/integration/facts-figures/population-migration.html">almost 2 million people</a> – similar to <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/UCL301001?opendocument">Brisbane</a> (depending on how you define the area).</p>
<p>Moreover, Vienna’s traffic is - like Brisbane’s - impacted by a significant share of commuters travelling in and out of the city every business day. </p>
<p>Both cities have <a href="https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/ranking/?country=AU,AT">similar congestion rates</a> – Brisbane 27% and Vienna 25% – and are served by all major local and global parcel delivery companies. </p>
<p>But more importantly, the traffic composition in Austria and Australia’s bigger cities seems to be very similar. Researchers in Melbourne measured the share of light commercial vehicles entering the CBD and found <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814015158" title="Understanding Last Kilometre Freight Delivery in Melbourne's Central Business District">13.4% cent of the vehicles entering the central business district were light commercial and service vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>This corresponds almost exactly with our Vienna findings. </p>
<h2>Congestion is getting worse</h2>
<p>Traffic is on the rise in many cities around the world, <a href="https://www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AAA-Congestion-Report-2018-FINAL.pdf">including here in Australia</a>, which already creates <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-15/traffic-congestion-australian-automobile-association-report/10376444">traffic congestion</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293917/original/file-20190925-51452-ws99e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic in Brisbane and other cities is only getting busier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/arobrien/3493017965/">Flickr/Andrew O Brien</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One area of growth in Australia is also the <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/yearbook_2018.aspx">number of light commercial vehicles</a> on our streets, up from 39.3 billion kilometres travelled in 2008 to 54 billion kilometres in 2018. That means potentially more such vehicles in our cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-growth-heat-islands-humidity-climate-change-the-costs-multiply-in-tropical-cities-120825">Urban growth, heat islands, humidity, climate change: the costs multiply in tropical cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When it comes to looking at who needs to do more to try to cut congestion, you need to consider more than just the parcel delivery companies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.biek.de/download.html?getfile=2326">Studies show</a> that further consolidation efforts within the parcel delivery industry would only lead to a maximum saving of a further 10% of delivery vans, that’s 9 instead of 10 delivery vans on the street. Given they only have a share of 0.8% of total traffic, that would only lead to reduction in traffic of less than 0.1%. </p>
<p>But for tradespeople and technicians, for example, with a share of 6.0% in city traffic, developing better logistics could lead to a greater reduction in the overall traffic in cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123776/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was commissioned and funded by the Austrian Post.</span></em></p>Parcel and courier delivery vehicles are often blamed for traffic congestion in our cities. But they’re only a fraction of the traffic caused by tradespeople and other services.David M. Herold, Sustainable Logistics Researcher, Vienna University of Economics and BusinessLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1233542019-09-17T20:30:39Z2019-09-17T20:30:39ZSuperblocks are transforming Barcelona. They might work in Australian cities too<p>The Spanish city of Barcelona has pioneered an innovative approach to managing traffic, freeing up public space and promoting walking and cycling. The “<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/9/18300797/barcelona-spain-superblocks-urban-plan">superblocks</a>” model produces considerable health and economic benefits, according to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412019315223?via%3Dihub">newly published research</a>, and could be applied in Australian cities too. </p>
<p>So how does this model work? Large “superblocks” covering an area of around 400m by 400m are created from residential blocks of 150m by 150m. These residential blocks are currently surrounded by normal busy streets. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292349/original/file-20190913-35615-xmqre8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The superblocks model explained.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://prod-mobilitat.s3.amazonaws.com/PMU_Sintesi_Angles.pdf">Urban Mobility Plan of Barcelona 2013-2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Outside the superblocks, the city’s normal through traffic is accommodated on streets with a maximum speed of 50km/h. Within the superblocks, cars are banned or restricted to 20km/h, priority is given to walking and cycling, and open space is reclaimed or created from parking. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-traffic-signals-favour-cars-and-discourage-walking-92675">How traffic signals favour cars and discourage walking</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZORzsubQA_M?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In 2016, Barcelona started creating ‘superblocks’ that are transforming life in the affected neighbourhoods.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These priorities accord closely with the goals of growing Australian cities that are struggling to preserve liveability in the face of increasing congestion and density. While current urban designs for new suburbs across Australia are an improvement on post-war suburban residential developments, the results are still unsatisfactory. </p>
<p>Residents of these new outer suburbs typically <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-liveable-this-is-what-residents-have-to-say-about-life-on-the-urban-fringe-111339">depend heavily on cars</a>. They have limited (if any) public transport access and <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-suburbs-are-being-short-changed-on-services-and-liveability-which-ones-and-whats-the-solution-83966">scant opportunity to walk or cycle to local amenities</a>. Urban sprawl means <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">commuting times and distances continue to increase</a>, <a href="https://www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AAA-Congestion-Report-2018-FINAL.pdf">traffic congestion worsens</a> and <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-climate-change/">transport emissions rise</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30068-X/fulltext">Residents of these suburbs have poorer economic and health outcomes</a> relative to the whole population. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-by-city-analysis-shows-our-capitals-arent-liveable-for-many-residents-85676">City-by-city analysis shows our capitals aren’t liveable for many residents</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are the benefits of superblocks?</h2>
<p>In light of these issues, Mark Stevenson collaborated with researchers from the Barcelona Institute of Global Health to explore the superblocks model and its potential benefits for Australian cities.
Their research, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412019315223?via%3Dihub">published in Environment International</a>, found the associated benefits in Barcelona are considerable. </p>
<p>Premature mortality rates were reduced by about 700 fewer deaths a year and life expectancy increased. This was due to reductions in air pollution, noise and heat, greater access to green space and increased transport-related physical activity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292375/original/file-20190913-35611-g2qelf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Barcelona superblocks model had a number of urban quality goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://prod-mobilitat.s3.amazonaws.com/PMU_Sintesi_Angles.pdf">Urban Mobility Plan of Barcelona 2013-2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The economic effects of transforming the existing urban blocks are also impressive, estimated at €1.7 billion (A$2.7 billion) a year. This benefit mainly comes from increased life expectancy, a 20% reduction in premature mortality and a 13% reduction in overall burden of disease.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/superblocks-barcelonas-car-free-zones-could-extend-lives-and-boost-mental-health-123295">Superblocks: Barcelona's car-free zones could extend lives and boost mental health</a>
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<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jq2yd4QgL5I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Barcelona residents talk about their experiences of superblocks.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Could this model work for Australian cities?</h2>
<p>The superblock concept is reminiscent of Griffin’s early <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=0J1kAwAAQBAJ&pg=PT373&dq=early+history+verged+on+the+tragi-farcical&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwirpKCvqtzkAhWV7XMBHRohBDIQ6AEILDAA#v=onepage&q=early%20history%20verged%20on%20the%20tragi-farcical&f=false">Canberra model of self-contained residential development</a>. Traffic was to be routed around neighbourhoods and suburbs rather than through them. </p>
<p>From the perspective of transport sustainability, that <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=IwWODwAAQBAJ&pg=PT70&dq=explicitly+designed+on+the+basis+that+the+car+would+be+the+dominant+form+of+transport&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjh8bfXwtnkAhU98HMBHUbtBSwQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=explicitly%20designed%20on%20the%20basis%20that%20the%20car%20would%20be%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transport&f=false">model failed, as the city was designed around the car</a>. As the residential neighbourhoods were also low density, schools and neighbourhood retail hubs felt the effect of ageing families and declining populations. </p>
<p>However, a superblock approach might work with two critical differences. </p>
<p>First, if densities were tripled, this would allow for more population within each neighbourhood. Higher density would support more social and retail infrastructure on a smaller footprint. </p>
<p>Second, if cars were restricted within each superblock and more frequent public transport routed around the outskirts of each, then people could get to services and recreational spaces on foot. The result would be a new, healthier urban dynamic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-creatives-are-remaking-canberras-city-centre-but-at-a-social-cost-97322">New creatives are remaking Canberra's city centre, but at a social cost</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Our cities are already ‘retrofitting’</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=431694382926564;res=IELBUS">case study of Docklands</a> in Melbourne, urban planner Kate Matthews argues along similar lines, but in an inner-urban landscape. She makes the point that the City of Melbourne has retrofitted social infrastructure and open space. An area that was <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2012/april/1336967175/robyn-annear/big-tumbleweed">sterile, wind-swept and cut-off</a> has now become a family-friendly neighbourhood. </p>
<p>The elements for success were that it was walkable, green, safe and had everything you need. Matthews argues that the Docklands experience could be transferred to other centres by applying the following principles:</p>
<ul>
<li>if you build it, they will come</li>
<li>prioritise infrastructure</li>
<li>actively manage traffic</li>
<li>invest in the public realm – streets, squares, parks, green spaces and other outdoor places that everyone can freely access and use.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seven-steps-melbourne-can-take-to-regain-its-liveable-city-crown-113726">Seven steps Melbourne can take to regain its 'liveable city' crown</a>
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<p>Some cities and towns – such as the <a href="https://tonsley.com.au/residential/">Tonsley redevelopment</a> in Adelaide, <a href="https://www.mra.wa.gov.au/projects-and-places/claisebrook-village">Claisebrook Village</a> in East Perth, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-developments-green-doesnt-help-with-inequality-104941">Barangaroo</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/move-over-suburbia-green-square-offers-new-norm-for-urban-living-57633">Green Square</a> renewal projects in Sydney – are already well down this path. We need more examples to draw on and learn from. All levels of government should encourage this approach, as the evidence is now there to show that significant health and ultimately financial benefits accrue to the communities that live within them.</p>
<p>Could we also apply these principles to developments in outer growth suburbs? How might this process be managed? And who pays for the up-front investment in the public realm, more frequent public transport and social infrastructure, whether in existing urban areas or new growth suburbs? </p>
<p>These are real questions, but surely none are greater than those we face now. If we commit ourselves to resolving the challenges of designing high-quality, affordable, higher-density urban environments in Australia, the research shows the beneficiaries will not just be ourselves but our children and their children’s health in, importantly, a sustainable future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Stevenson holds an NHMRC Research Fellowship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Love does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Spanish city is remaking urban neighbourhoods by limiting through traffic in superblocks that give priority to pedestrians and street activities, not cars.Patrick Love, Hon Senior Fellow, Transport Health and Urban Design (THUD) Melbourne School of Design, The University of MelbourneMark Stevenson, Professor of Urban Transport and Public Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.