tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/uncertainty-15708/articles
Uncertainty – The Conversation
2024-03-01T13:40:34Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/223509
2024-03-01T13:40:34Z
2024-03-01T13:40:34Z
The ‘average’ revolutionized scientific research, but overreliance on it has led to discrimination and injury
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578352/original/file-20240227-22-rs4i9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5591%2C3722&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The average can tell you a lot about a dataset, but not everything. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/bell-curve?assettype=image&alloweduse=availableforalluses&agreements=pa%3A174132&family=creative&phrase=bell%20curve&sort=best">marekuliasz/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When analyzing a set of data, one of the first steps many people take is to compute an average. You might compare your height against the average height of people where you live, or brag about your favorite baseball player’s batting average. But while the average can help you study a dataset, it has important limitations. </p>
<p>Uses of the average that ignore these limitations have led to serious issues, such as <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Disability-Studies-Reader/Davis/p/book/9781138930230">discrimination</a>, <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105595">injury</a> and even life-threatening accidents. </p>
<p>For example, the U.S. Air Force used to design its planes for “the average man,” but abandoned the practice when pilots <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eBmyttcfU4&pp=ygURdG9kZCByb3NlIGF2ZXJhZ2U%3D">couldn’t control their aircraft</a>. The average has many uses, but it doesn’t tell you anything about the variability in a dataset.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=zEYYuIcAAAAJ&hl=en">discipline-specific education researcher</a>, meaning I study how people learn, with a focus on engineering. My research includes study of how engineers use averages in their work.</p>
<h2>Using the average to summarize data</h2>
<p>The average has been around for a long time, with its use documented as early as the ninth or eighth century BCE. In an early instance, the Greek poet Homer <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/292278/the-history-of-the-peloponnesian-war-by-thucydides-translated-by-rex-warner-introduction-and-notes-by-m-i-finley/">estimated the number of soldiers</a> on ships by taking an average.</p>
<p>Early astronomers wanted to predict future locations of stars. But to make these predictions, they first needed accurate measurements of the stars’ current positions. Multiple astronomers would take position measurements independently, but they often arrived at different values. Since a star has just one true position, these discrepancies were a problem.</p>
<p>Galileo in 1632 was the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0025570X.2006.11953386">first to push for a systematic approach</a> to address these measurement differences. His analysis was the beginning of <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691208428/the-rise-of-statistical-thinking-1820-1900">error theory</a>. Error theory helps scientists reduce uncertainty in their measurements.</p>
<h2>Error theory and the average</h2>
<p>Under error theory, researchers interpret a set of measurements as falling around a true value that is corrupted by error. In astronomy, a star has a true location, but early astronomers may have had unsteady hands, blurry telescope images and bad weather – all sources of error.</p>
<p>To deal with error, researchers often assume that measurements are unbiased. In statistics, this means they evenly distribute around a central value. Unbiased measurements still have error, but they can be combined to better estimate the true value.</p>
<p>Say three scientists have each taken three measurements. Viewed separately, their measurements may seem random, but when unbiased measurements are put together, they evenly distribute around a middle value: the average.</p>
<p>When measurements are unbiased, the average will tend to sit in the middle of all measurements. In fact, we can show mathematically that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0025570X.2006.11953386">the average is closest</a> to all possible measurements. For this reason, the average is an excellent tool for dealing with measurement errors.</p>
<h2>Statistical thinking</h2>
<p>Error theory was, in its time, considered revolutionary. Other scientists admired the precision of astronomy and sought to bring the same approach to their disciplines. The 19th century scientist Adolphe Quetelet applied ideas from error theory to study humans and <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691208428/the-rise-of-statistical-thinking-1820-1900">introduced the idea</a> of taking averages of human heights and weights.</p>
<p>The average helps make comparisons across groups. For instance, taking averages from a dataset of male and female heights can show that the males in the dataset are taller – on average – than the females. However, the average does not tell us everything. In the same dataset, we could likely find individual females who are taller than individual males.</p>
<p>So, you can’t consider only the average. You should also consider the spread of values by thinking statistically. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.1999.tb00442.x">Statistical thinking</a> is defined as thinking carefully about variation – or the tendency of measured values to be different.</p>
<p>For example, different astronomers taking measurements of the same star and recording different positions is one example of variation. The astronomers had to think carefully about where their variation came from. Since a star has one true position, they could safely assume their variation was due to error.</p>
<p>Taking the average of measurements makes sense when variation comes from sources of error. But researchers have to be careful when interpreting the average when there is real variation. For instance, in the height example, individual females can be taller than individual males, even if men are taller on average. Focusing on the average alone <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/26939169.2024.2308119">neglects variation</a>, which has caused serious issues.</p>
<p>Quetelet did not just take the practice of computing averages from error theory. He also took the assumption of a single true value. He elevated an ideal of “the average man” and suggested that <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691208428/the-rise-of-statistical-thinking-1820-1900">human variability was fundamentally error</a> – that is, not ideal. To Quetelet, there’s something wrong with you if you’re not exactly average height.</p>
<p>Researchers who study <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Disability-Studies-Reader/Davis/p/book/9781138930230">social norms</a> note that Quetelet’s ideas about “the average man” contributed the modern meaning of the word “normal” – normal height, as well as normal behavior.</p>
<p>These ideas have been used by some, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/francis-galton-pioneered-scientific-advances-in-many-fields-but-also-founded-the-racist-pseudoscience-of-eugenics-144465">early statisticians</a>, to divide populations in two: people who are in some way superior and those who are inferior. </p>
<p>For instance, the <a href="https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Eugenics-and-Scientific-Racism">eugenics movement</a> – a despicable effort to prevent “inferior” people from having children – <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Disability-Studies-Reader/Davis/p/book/9781138930230">traces its thinking</a> to these ideas about “normal” people.</p>
<p>While Quetelet’s idea of variation as error <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15017410600608491">supports practices of discrimination</a>, Quetelet-like uses of the average also have direct connections to modern engineering failures.</p>
<h2>Failures of the average</h2>
<p>In the 1950s, the U.S. Air Force designed its aircraft for “the average man.” It assumed that a plane designed for an average height, average arm length and the average along several other key dimensions <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eBmyttcfU4&pp=ygURdG9kZCByb3NlIGF2ZXJhZ2U%3D">would work for most pilots</a>.</p>
<p>This decision contributed to as many as <a href="http://www.toddrose.com/endofaverage">17 pilots crashing in a single day</a>. While “the average man” could operate the aircraft perfectly, real variation got in the way. A shorter pilot would have trouble seeing, while a pilot with longer arms and legs would have to squish themselves to fit. </p>
<p>While the Air Force assumed most of its pilots would be close to average along all key dimensions, it found that out of 4,063 pilots, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Average_Man.html?id=NxmdHAAACAAJ">zero were average</a>.</p>
<p>The Air Force solved the problem by designing for variation – it designed adjustable seats to account for the real variation among pilots.</p>
<p>While adjustable seats might seem obvious now, this “average man” thinking still causes problems today. In the U.S., women experience <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2011.300275">about 50% higher odds of severe injury</a> in automobile accidents.</p>
<p>The Government Accountability Office blames this disparity on crash-test practices, where female passengers are crudely represented using a <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105595">scaled version of a male dummy</a>, much like the Air Force’s “average man.” The first female crash-test dummy <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/01/1133375223/the-first-female-crash-test-dummy-has-only-now-arrived">was introduced in 2022</a> and has yet to be adopted in the U.S.</p>
<p>The average is useful, but it has limitations. For estimating true values or making comparisons across groups, the average is powerful. However, for individuals who exhibit real variability, the average simply doesn’t mean that much.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary del Rosario receives funding from the National Science Foundation, and has worked with Citrine Informatics and Toyota Research Institute.</span></em></p>
The average might come in handy for certain data analyses, but is any one person really ‘average’?
Zachary del Rosario, Assistant Professor of Engineering, Olin College of Engineering
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/219944
2024-01-03T20:10:27Z
2024-01-03T20:10:27Z
No one can predict how financial markets will behave with absolute certainty. Here’s why
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565828/original/file-20231101-23-xjz2ys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C992%2C664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a mistake to assume that financial enthusiasts can predict the uncertain behaviour of markets.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some stock market enthusiasts claim to be able to predict financial market trends with fantastic accuracy. </p>
<p>Despite the complexity of international finance, they assure us that substantial profits are within our reach if we follow their recommendations and imitate their behaviour.</p>
<p>But is it really possible to accurately predict the behaviour of financial markets?</p>
<p>As an expert in the psychology of decision-making who specializes in complexity research, I have had the opportunity to deepen my understanding of human cognition and its capacity to control real-world complex environments. For now, my conclusions are sobering and not simple.</p>
<h2>Complex decisions</h2>
<p>According to many researchers in decision-making science, understanding and managing <a href="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/revisiting-complexity-in-the-digital-age/">complexity is the greatest challenge of the digital age</a>. Complexity refers to the uncertain nature of the environments in which we make decisions every day. </p>
<p>While some of our financial choices may seem simple and self-evident (saving a portion of our income, setting a budget, repaying a debt), the environment in which these choices are made is <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315091938-2/complex-problem-solving-european-perspective%E2%80%9410-years-joachim-funke-peter-frensch">unpredictable</a>. </p>
<p>The strategies we adopt are certainly not infallible; our knowledge does not guarantee our success, and the effects of each of our decisions are uncertain and unique. This explains why the environments in which we make everyday decisions are actually highly complex. They include many interrelated factors that are constantly changing, with or without our intervention. Not to mention that the objectives we cherish are often themselves <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/9/3/38">contradictory</a>. </p>
<p>For example, how can we maximize investment returns while minimizing exposure to market fluctuations?</p>
<h2>Facing financial complexity</h2>
<p>Faced with financial complexity, human cognition tends to favour a reductionist approach to information processing, sometimes called <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/154193120104500415">“tunneling.”</a> Faced with the overload of information generated by complexity, we tend to concentrate on one or a few specific aspects of a situation rather than all available information because <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2451958822000562">too much information kills information</a>. In other words, we take shortcuts. And guess what? These simplistic ways of thinking can lead to biased decisions. </p>
<p>We often make the mistake of attributing poor performance of our equity portfolio to a single event that stands out in our minds. We mistakenly believe that our investments will grow linearly when, in fact, they are vulnerable to exponential fluctuations caused by crises and unexpected events. We react poorly to unsuccessful investments by focusing on the consequences that could explain our financial difficulties, rather than by deepening our understanding of why the company in which we had blind faith (or the sector in which it operates) is experiencing difficulties.</p>
<p>Finally — and this is human nature — we tend to attribute responsibility for our failures to external factors beyond our control. For example, we might be tempted to blame losses incurred by certain businesses in the tourism sector on poor summer weather conditions. But in doing so, we overlook the importance of the quality of the products and services the businesses offer, or how hospitable their staff are. </p>
<h2>And market enthusiasts in all this?</h2>
<p><a href="https://corpus.ulaval.ca/entities/publication/e1743fb3-e5d8-4532-9d3f-042954bbff15">My most recent work</a> supports the literature on complex problem-solving: whether we are experts or novices, understanding and mastering complexity is a daunting challenge. </p>
<p>Many market enthusiasts will demonstrate greater skill in devising an investment strategy, managing a portfolio or accessing certain investments. </p>
<p>However, it is a mistake to assume that they can predict the uncertain behaviour of the markets. The issue is not necessarily financial knowledge, but the natural limitations of human cognition when faced with complexity. </p>
<p>Faced with international finance, there is a “wall of complexity” beyond which it is particularly difficult to progress, and we are all subject to bias and errors.</p>
<h2>So, how do we navigate through this?</h2>
<p>Despite the many challenges of financial complexity, there is light at the end of the tunnel, provided we know what to do. While there are many studies to be conducted, researchers remain optimistic about specific methods that can already help us make more informed decisions.</p>
<p><strong>1. Learn to think in systems</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://fnhpa.ca/_Library/KC_BP_5_Skills/SYSTEMS_THINKING.pdf">Systems thinking</a> is a way of perceiving reality that helps us to better understand and work with real-world complex environments. </p>
<p>Whether you want to learn how to manage your budget better or invest wisely in the stock market, get into the habit of drawing visual representations of the financial challenges you want to tackle. </p>
<p>Cause-and-effect diagrams, which use simple symbols (a + sign to show a change in the same direction between two factors, and a – sign to show opposite changes), allow you to quickly illustrate the extent and scope of a problem by representing the relationships between the parts of the same system. </p>
<p>But make no mistake, some factors are difficult to predict. </p>
<p>In short, learn to think about the “consequences of the consequences” of your choices before making any decision.</p>
<p><strong>2. Be bold, tolerate uncertainty</strong></p>
<p>Learn to tolerate situations that, at first sight, have no clear solutions and leave you in doubt. </p>
<p>Financial markets are unpredictable and poorly structured, which creates <a href="https://www.sympoetic.net/Managing_Complexity/complexity_files/1973%20Rittel%20and%20Webber%20Wicked%20Problems.pdf">“wicked problems.”</a></p>
<p>In these environments, ambiguity is the norm. Embracing uncertainty allows us to translate problems into opportunities, rather than making hasty decisions or locking ourselves into inaction. </p>
<p>There is no single “right solution” to a complex financial problem. Take a moment to evaluate your options.</p>
<p><strong>3. Test your beliefs and biases</strong></p>
<p>Don’t try to research and interpret financial information based on an assumption you hold dear. Confront your preconceived ideas using sources you would not normally consult because they take the opposite position. </p>
<p>What would a friend or colleague whom you like, but who fundamentally disagrees with you, say?</p>
<p><strong>4. Don’t trust what comes easily to mind</strong></p>
<p>Attending an inspiring conference on the sustainable economy or listening attentively to a TV report on financial ethics does not guarantee that the information that comes out of it will be helpful in the decision you have to make.</p>
<p>Although this information may be easier to retrieve from memory, it is not necessarily relevant. Don’t overestimate the likelihood of an event just because you can imagine it in great detail. </p>
<p>Get information from several sources and verify their reliability.</p>
<h2>Now what?</h2>
<p>One cannot become proficient in any area without putting in the necessary practice. Therefore, it is important for you to personally delve into the world of finance. </p>
<p>Through experience, you will develop your skills to better appreciate complexity.
To help you do this, it’s a good idea to seek the assistance of a competent professional to guide you through this highly sophisticated process. </p>
<p>But remember this: when it comes to complexity, you are human, as are those who claim to be able to read the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219944/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benoît Béchard received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Société et Culture (FRQSC), and Mitacs Canada.</span></em></p>
The complexity of the financial market is far beyond the information processing capabilities of human cognition.
Benoît Béchard, Docteur en psychologie de la décision Ph. D., Université Laval
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/215135
2023-11-20T13:16:27Z
2023-11-20T13:16:27Z
Pooling multiple models during COVID-19 pandemic provided more reliable projections about an uncertain future
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559148/original/file-20231113-21-81g8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C383%2C3479%2C2610&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sum is greater than the parts when researchers build an ensemble from multiple coordinated but independent models.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matteo Chinazzi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How can anyone decide on the best course of action in a world full of unknowns?</p>
<p>There are few better examples of this challenge than the COVID-19 pandemic, when officials fervently compared potential outcomes as they weighed options like whether to implement lockdowns or require masks in schools. The main tools they used to compare these futures were epidemic models.</p>
<p>But often, models included numerous unstated assumptions and considered only one scenario – for instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-1565">that lockdowns would continue</a>. Chosen scenarios were rarely consistent across models. All this variability made it difficult to compare models, because it’s unclear whether the differences between them were due to different starting assumptions or scientific disagreement.</p>
<p>In response, we came together with colleagues to found the <a href="https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org">U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub</a> in December 2020. We provide real-time, long-term projections in the U.S. for use by federal agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, local health authorities and the public. We work directly with public health officials to identify which possible futures, or scenarios, would be most helpful to consider as they set policy, and we convene multiple independent modeling teams to make projections of public health outcomes for each scenario. Crucially, having multiple teams address the same question allows us to better envision what could possibly happen in the future.</p>
<p>Since its inception, the Scenario Modeling Hub has generated 17 rounds of projections of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S. across varying stages of the pandemic. In a recent study published in the journal Nature Communications, we looked back at all these projections and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42680-x">evaluated how well they matched the reality</a> that unfolded. This work provided insights about when and what kinds of model projections are most trustworthy – and most importantly supported our strategy of combining multiple models into one ensemble.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="line graph that ends in multiple colored options on the right" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557558/original/file-20231103-19-f0po1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Collecting projections from multiple independent models provides a fuller picture of possible futures − as in this graph of potential hospitalizations − and allows researchers to generate an ensemble.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Multiple models are better than just one</h2>
<p>A founding principle of our Scenario Modeling Hub is that multiple models are more reliable than one.</p>
<p>From tomorrow’s temperature on your weather app to predictions of interest rates in the next few months, you likely use the combined results of multiple models all the time. Especially in times like the COVID-19 pandemic when uncertainty abounds, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5">combining projections from multiple models into an ensemble</a> provides a fuller picture of what could happen in the future. Ensembles have become ubiquitous in many fields, primarily because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01004-9">they work</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="3xdrr" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3xdrr/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Our analysis of this approach with COVID-19 models resoundingly showed the strong performance of the Scenario Modeling Hub ensemble. Not only did the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42680-x">ensemble give us more accurate predictions</a> of what could happen in the future overall, it was substantially more consistent than any individual model throughout the different stages of the pandemic. When one model failed, another performed well, and by taking into account results from all of these varying models, the ensemble emerged as more accurate and more reliable.</p>
<p>Researchers have previously shown performance benefits of ensembles for short-term forecasts of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9">influenza</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1909865116">dengue</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119">SARS-CoV-2</a>. But our recent study is one of the first times researchers have tested this effect for long-term projections of alternative scenarios. </p>
<h2>A ‘hub’ makes multimodel projections possible</h2>
<p>While scientists know combining multiple models into an ensemble improves predictions, it can be tricky to put an ensemble together. For example, in order for an ensemble to be meaningful, model outputs and key assumptions need to be standardized. If one model assumes a new COVID-19 variant will gain steam and another model does not, they will come up with vastly different results. Likewise, a model that projects cases and one that projects hospitalizations would not provide comparable results. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="people seated around an open conference table with whiteboards" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559121/original/file-20231113-22-5b1rrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meeting frequently helps multiple modeling teams stay on the same page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matteo Chinazzi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of these challenges are overcome by <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306831">convening as a “hub.”</a> Our modeling teams meet weekly to make sure we’re all on the same page about the scenarios we model. This way, any differences in what individual models project are the result of things researchers truly do not know. Retaining this scientific disagreement is essential; the success of the Scenario Modeling Hub ensemble arises because each modeling team takes a different approach.</p>
<p>At our hub we work together to <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.10.11.23296887v1">design our scenarios strategically</a> and in close collaboration with public health officials. By projecting outcomes under specific scenarios, we can estimate the impact of particular interventions, like vaccination.</p>
<p>For example, a scenario with higher vaccine uptake can be compared with a scenario with current vaccination rates to understand how many lives could potentially be saved. Our projections have informed recommendations of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398">COVID-19 vaccines for children</a> and bivalent boosters for all age groups, both in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7145a2">2022</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7224a3">2023</a>. </p>
<p>In other cases, we design scenarios to explore the effects of important unknowns, such as the impact of a new variant – <a href="https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.73584">known</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398">hypothetical</a>. These types of scenarios can help individuals and institutions know what they might be up against in the future and plan accordingly.</p>
<p>Although the hub process requires substantial time and resources, our results showed that the effort has clear payoffs: The information we generate together is more reliable than the information we could generate alone. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman filling out a form with a COVID vaccine sign in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559966/original/file-20231116-17-51u1pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What models suggest are likely futures can inform real-world decisions, such as when to run a vaccine clinic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-fills-out-a-registration-form-to-receive-a-dose-of-a-news-photo/1250226576">Eric Lee for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Past reliability, confidence for future</h2>
<p>Because Scenario Modeling Hub projections can inform real public health decisions, it is essential that we provide the best possible information. Holding ourselves accountable in retrospective evaluations not only allows us to identify places where the models and the scenarios can be improved, but also helps us build trust with the people who rely on our projections.</p>
<p>Our hub has expanded to produce <a href="https://fluscenariomodelinghub.org">scenario projections for influenza</a>, and we are introducing projections of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. And encouragingly, other groups abroad, <a href="https://covid19scenariohub.eu">particularly in the EU</a>, are replicating our setup.</p>
<p>Scientists around the world can take the hub-based approach that we’ve shown improves reliability during the COVID-19 pandemic and use it to support a comprehensive public health response to important pathogen threats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Howerton is funded by the US National Science Foundation to support this work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Lessler receives funding from the US CDC and the NIH to support this work. He has also served as an expert witness on cases where the likely length of the pandemic was of issue. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecile Viboud does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Policymakers rely on models during uncertain times to figure out how their choices could affect the future. Over the pandemic, an ensemble of many COVID-19 models outperformed any one alone.
Emily Howerton, Postdoctoral Scholar in Biology, Penn State
Cecile Viboud, Senior Research Scientist, National Institutes of Health
Justin Lessler, Professor of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212039
2023-10-10T17:00:40Z
2023-10-10T17:00:40Z
The Exorcist at 50: a terrifying film that symbolises the decline of America’s faith and optimism
<p><em>Please note this piece contains spoilers.</em></p>
<p>Having made a <a href="https://www.irishnews.com/arts/2018/10/12/news/irish-film-maker-aislinn-clarke-on-her-new-horror-the-devil-s-doorway-1454950/">film about priests making a film</a>, I find myself discussing cinema with actual priests more than most. Invariably, the fathers’ favourite film is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/sep/28/the-exorcist-review-friedkins-head-swivelling-horror-is-still-diabolically-inspired">The Exorcist</a>, in which two priests battle the ancient evil that has possessed a pre-teen girl. </p>
<p>At the climax, Father Damien Karras leaps from the child’s window, plunging down 75 steps to his death, exorcising the demon and saving the child. A hero.</p>
<p>There’s a thrill in seeing yourself depicted on screen, in seeing your vocation elevated to a <a href="https://time.com/6304708/heros-journey-psychology/">hero’s journey</a> and enmeshed into pop culture. I don’t want to know the chef who doesn’t enjoy Pixar’s <a href="https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/ratatouille-2007">Ratatouille</a>.</p>
<p>But what about the rest of us? Most of us aren’t priests. Most aren’t even Catholic. Indeed, since the release of the film, the reputation of the Catholic church has sunk lower and lower, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/apr/21/boston-globe-abuse-scandal-catholic">scandal, corruption and abuse</a> have become common knowledge. Yet the priests’ favourite film, which turns 50 this year, remains a household word, where other outstanding movies of the period have found themselves on the street.</p>
<p>The Exorcist is not Catholic propaganda. While the film’s director, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Friedkin">William Friedkin</a>, an agnostic Jew, described the film as being about faith, he meant the concept of faith itself – what the philosopher <a href="https://iep.utm.edu/kierkega/">Søren Kierkegaard</a> considered “holding on to the objective uncertainty with infinite passion”.</p>
<p>For Kierkegaard, faith was a venture, an action one takes in spite of – or because of – not knowing. Friedkin’s faith is not placed in anything named, but the film itself is riddled with uncertainty and culminates in action in the absence of certainty.</p>
<h2>America in crisis</h2>
<p>Friedkin was recognised as one of the premier directors of the 1970s’ all-male <a href="https://www.newwavefilm.com/international/new-hollywood.shtml">New Hollywood</a>, alongside peers such as <a href="https://www.biography.com/movies-tv/francis-ford-coppola">Frances Ford Coppola</a>, <a href="https://www.biography.com/movies-tv/martin-scorsese">Martin Scorsese</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alan-J-Pakula">Alan Pakula</a>, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/jan/07/peter-bogdanovich-obituary">Peter Bogdanovich</a>. This movement responded to the experience of previous decades with films that captured the uncertainty and irresolution of American life: the Vietnam war, the civil rights movement, the Kennedy assassinations, Watergate.</p>
<p>If 1950s, America was a teenybopper full of hope and confidence, the America of the late 1960s was a young adult learning that her parents are only human after all and no one is taking the wheel. Not even Jesus.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/oct/10/all-the-presidents-men-watergate-conspiracy-richard-nixon-woodward-bernstein-redford-hoffman">All The President’s Men</a> Pakula reveals the corruption at the heart of American democracy. Watergate was a watershed and faith in American institutions and the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1939/04/the-great-american-experiment/653768/">great experiment</a>” never recovered.</p>
<p>Under more recent administrations corruption is expected, even accepted. All The President’s Men is surely a hit among journalists, but the hero class of Pakula’s film has taken a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/impact-declining-trust-media">reputational drubbing in recent decades</a>, a notch above the priesthood.</p>
<p>Yet The Exorcist retains a legacy and place in popular culture that the other paranoid films of New Hollywood don’t.</p>
<p>For Friedkin, uncertainty in our institutions and our understanding is built in. When Regan McNeil becomes possessed by a demon, her mother takes her to a doctor, but psychiatry, psychoanalysis and hypnotherapy don’t work. The latest medical advances don’t work either.</p>
<p>And neither does a medieval Catholicism: the demon chuckles at the priests’ efforts to exorcise it. It mocks them. It even takes a crucifix and – rather than shrinking from it, as any self-respecting screen monster should, it repeatedly inserts the crucifix inside the body of its host. </p>
<p>The Exorcist is not a film about a successful exorcism, but about what we do in the face of uncertainty and the cynical grinning face of the demon doubt. It is not a film about a priest, but about a human being. When Karras takes the demon into himself and jumps from the window, it is literally a leap of faith. He can’t know that it will work, but he acts. Pazuzu, the demon of doubt, would prefer he didn’t act at all.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BU2eYAO31Cc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>The great unknown</h2>
<p>For me, the film’s most chilling moment comes when Regan interrupts her mother’s raucous shindig to flatly tell a guest (an astronaut): “You’re gonna die up there.” Then she pisses on the carpet like an untrained animal.</p>
<p>The administration that presided over “one giant leap for mankind” was also responsible for Watergate: optimism gave way to cynicism and, in a cynical mindset, it is easier to do nothing at all. The demon here is a head-swivelling personification of imposter syndrome, it comes to remind us of our smallness, our irrelevance, our hopelessness. It speaks with such certainty.</p>
<p>Faith is about not being defeated by the limits of our understanding. We may not have all the answers, but we can be courageous and curious. Faith is action and the hope that action is worth taking. At a time when our institutions and frameworks for understanding the world continually let us down, perhaps we need this lesson more than ever.</p>
<p>While astronauts facing a journey into the unknown chasm of space may die up there, it is the giant leap for mankind that inspires them to go. The Exorcist perseveres, because it is hopeful, not hopeless. It says something necessary about humanity. It has faith in us.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aislinn Clarke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Made at a time when America was facing crises on many fronts, William Friedkin’s film has profound things to say about humanity and society.
Aislinn Clarke, Lecturer in Film Studies, Queen's University Belfast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/209327
2023-07-10T20:10:53Z
2023-07-10T20:10:53Z
Humans set budgets when facing an uncertain future. So do ants
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536396/original/file-20230709-173516-ajhf4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4261%2C3450&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Garnier</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine you are looking for a parking spot at a crowded event. You find one far from your destination. Do you decide to take it, or invest more time into hunting a better spot which may or may not exist?</p>
<p>You might resolve this decision by “budgeting”: limiting the resources (time) you will spend looking for a better option before settling for the inferior one. This strategy, which allows us to cut our losses when things don’t pan out as we had hoped, is commonly used when we cannot know the payoff of our choices in advance.</p>
<p>Making decisions under uncertainty is a problem we all face. In <a href="https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2216217120">new research</a> published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we show weaver ants (<em>Oecophylla smaragdina</em>) – much like humans – manage it by budgeting their investment into a task with an uncertain payoff. </p>
<h2>Weaver ants bridge gaps with their own bodies</h2>
<p>Weaver ants link their bodies together to form bridge-like structures called “hanging chains”, which they use for crossing gaps encountered along trails. Chains span several times the size of an individual ant and, most strikingly, are self-organized. </p>
<p>This means chains are formed without the help of leaders or external blueprints. Instead, each individual responds solely to its surroundings and local interactions with neighbours. </p>
<p>Understanding self-organization is central to understanding collective behaviour in animal groups – from flocks of birds to insect swarms – and other systems, including human crowds and traffic flow. </p>
<h2>Chains are a gamble</h2>
<p>Building a chain comes at a cost to the colony. Ants in the chain can’t participate in important colony tasks such as defending the nest and foraging. The cost of the chain is proportional to its length: longer chains are more costly, as they keep more ants occupied. </p>
<p>Chains provide a major benefit too: they allow ants to explore areas that would otherwise be inaccessible, which may offer food sources to the colony. Whether an area contains a profitable resource, however, is unknown to the ants until the chain has been completed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three photos showing a chain of ants slowly growing downward from one platform to another." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536390/original/file-20230709-21-b82382.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chain grows as new ants arrive and join the collective attempt to reach the ground below.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniele Carlesso</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This makes chain-building a gamble. Colonies must invest capital (a number of ants) into forming a chain, which may or may not pay off. </p>
<p>In our study we asked whether, like humans, ants budget their investment into a task when the payoffs are unknown. We expected ants would stop forming chains when the gap to be bridged became too tall, as the cost of the chain would become too great. </p>
<h2>A simple mechanism for a complex decision</h2>
<p>We initially challenged ants to bridge vertical gaps of 25mm, 35mm and 50mm in height. Ants could comfortably form chains within this range, which allowed us to precisely determine the rules they use to build chains. </p>
<p>A detailed analysis of the ants’ behaviour revealed that joining and leaving events happen primarily in the lowest part (1cm) of chains. This indicates that ants are unable to leave their position if one or more individuals start hanging from them. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bridges-highways-scaffolds-how-the-amazing-engineering-of-army-ants-can-teach-us-to-build-better-158326">Bridges, highways, scaffolds: how the amazing engineering of army ants can teach us to build better</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We then found ants decide how long to stay in a chain by visually assessing their distance from the ground below. The closer to the ground, the longer an ant remains in the chain. </p>
<p>Chain formation is thus modulated by a simple rule: each ant remains in the chain for a length of time proportional to her distance to the ground, and remains stuck in place if one or more ants start hanging from her. The ant will then be able to move only if the other ant(s) leave. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gRsMfqSr134?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ants bridging a 50mm gap. Daniele Carlesso.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Can this rule predict a distance beyond which ants stop forming chains? We answered this question using a mathematical model, which predicted ants should stop forming chains when the gap is taller than 89mm.</p>
<p>To confirm these predictions, we asked ants to form chains over gaps of 110mm – a distance well beyond the threshold predicted by our model. As expected, ants never formed chains over these gaps. </p>
<h2>Tricking ants into investing more</h2>
<p>If ants use vision to assess their distance from the ground, we should be able to trick them into building very long chains (greater than 90mm) by keeping the ground at a constant distance from the bottom of the chain. </p>
<p>We ran an additional experiment where we could lower the platform ants had to reach using a slider. As the chain grew, we lowered the platform, keeping it just out of reach of the ants. Using this apparatus, we tricked ants into forming chains as long as 125mm. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bees-are-astonishingly-good-at-making-decisions-and-our-computer-model-explains-how-thats-possible-208189">Bees are astonishingly good at making decisions – and our computer model explains how that's possible</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Similar to when we set ourselves a time limit for finding parking, ants set a distance limit before giving up. And they do so using a simple rule – remain in the chain for a length of time proportional to your distance to the ground. </p>
<p>Our results reveal how simple rules can guide groups in making adaptive collective decisions in the absence of payoff information. Not only does this help us understand ants – it also provides an algorithm for decision-making in uncertain scenarios, which can be applied in multi-agent artificial systems such as swarm robotics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniele Carlesso receives funding from Macquarie University.</span></em></p>
Weaver ants organise themselves into bridges to cross gaps and explore new territory – and new research shows this collective behaviour is governed by a surprisingly simple decision-making rule.
Daniele Carlesso, PhD Candidate, Macquarie University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/207766
2023-06-28T13:20:19Z
2023-06-28T13:20:19Z
Pastoralists are an asset to the world – and we have a lot to learn from them
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533789/original/file-20230623-27-7cuh4q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.tni.org/en/publication/livestock-climate-and-the-politics-of-resources">Pastoralists</a> are livestock keepers who are frequently on the move, sometimes across huge distances. Following mobile lifestyles and living far from centres of power, they are often inaccurately <a href="https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/hoofprints-on-the-land/">dismissed as backward and in need of modernisation</a>. </p>
<p>Many policies are directed at <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03066150.2020.1802249">transforming mobile pastoralists</a> into settled agriculturalists or urban dwellers. This aims at recasting them into the dominant image of “civilised” living. And, despite their positive contributions to livelihoods, economies and the environment, the world’s many <a href="https://iyrp.info/">millions of pastoralists</a> have been vilified as contributors to <a href="https://pastres.org/livestock-report/">climate change</a> and destroyers of <a href="https://pastres.org/biodiversity/">the environment</a>. </p>
<p>I am a social scientist with a background in ecology. Over more than <a href="https://pastres.org/about-us/pastres-team/">30 years</a> I have been researching land, livelihoods and agrarian change, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. Contrary to the dominant, negative views on pastoralists, <a href="https://pastres.org/">research</a> in six countries across three continents over the past five years has shown how pastoralism is an innovative, flexible and productive system that can handle uncertainty and adapt to change, while contributing to climate change mitigation and improving biodiversity.</p>
<p>Our research is explored in a <a href="https://practicalactionpublishing.com/book/2667/pastoralism-uncertainty-and-development">new open access book</a>, published with my co-researchers from across the world. It highlights how effective pastoralists are at <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb5855en/cb5855en.pdf">living with variability</a> and responding to uncertainties. Of course, there are limits to such flexible and adaptive responses. Pastoralists are vulnerable to <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/15458">exclusions due to land grabbing, energy projects and urbanisation</a>. Political decision-making can also marginalise them. </p>
<p>But lessons from the pastoral margins can question assumptions about the best ways to meet today’s challenges. Here I offer five.</p>
<h2>1. Embracing uncertainty and change</h2>
<p>We live in a complex and uncertain world. Whether it’s due to climate change, market volatility or pandemic outbreaks, <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/14470">we don’t know what the future will hold</a>. Old certainties have disappeared, and expectations of stability, order and control are no longer tenable. This requires a very different approach centred on flexibility, improvisation and adaptability. </p>
<p>It means shifting from “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Qe_RDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=seeing+like+a+state+james+scott&ots=Fz9HZKBYap&sig=0NQhlD_BjJI2vyFtcOmWyibffBg&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=seeing%20like%20a%20state%20james%20scott&f=false%22">seeing like a state</a>” (or a corporation, bank or development agency) to “<a href="https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/53003">seeing like a pastoralist</a>”. This involves <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/saas/aop/saas.of.04132303/saas.of.04132303.xml">embracing uncertainty, complexity and dynamic change</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Mobile lives</h2>
<p>Mobility is central to pastoralists’ production strategies. With highly variable resources over space and time, moving between grazing patches is essential. This requires <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/ejdr.2010.41">skilled herding, the training of animals and intelligence</a> on where fodder and water can be found. <a href="https://theconversation.com/livestock-are-threatened-by-predators-but-old-fashioned-shepherding-may-be-an-effective-solution-201193">Traditional practices</a> are combined with modern technologies for scouting and gaining information, based on deep knowledge of animals and the environment. Overall, <a href="https://practicalactionpublishing.com/book/1264/living-with-uncertainty">the ability to respond flexibly to changing circumstances</a> is essential. </p>
<p>The result is that pastoralists make use of otherwise unproductive rangelands across more than <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/114064">half the world’s land surface</a> and they are immensely skilled at living with diverse environmental, market and political uncertainties.</p>
<p>Our work shows that flexible mobility is <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/saas/aop/saas.of.04132303/saas.of.04132303.xml">crucial for everyone, everywhere in today’s uncertain, turbulent world</a>. We argue that learning from mobile pastoralists – from the savanna plains of Africa to the semi-deserts of the Middle East and North Africa, the steppes and high mountains of Asia and the hills and mountain areas of Europe – <a href="https://comparativemigrationstudies.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40878-022-00277-1">enhances our ability to be mobile</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Global markets and trade</h2>
<p>Pastoral systems are always embedded in markets and trade. Many of the great historical trade routes – across the Asian steppes, through the Sahara desert and from eastern Africa to the Arabian peninsula, for example – have been facilitated by pastoralists. </p>
<p>Pastoralists are no strangers to cross-border trade and globalisation, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03066150.2020.1802249">contrary to negative narratives</a> that suggest that they reject markets and commercialisation. However, the markets that are so central to pastoralists’ livelihoods are not the simple ones described in economics textbooks. </p>
<p>Our work in <a href="https://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/109485/">Sardinia in Italy</a> shows how pastoralists engage with informal “<a href="https://zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/2279/1/III-Revisiting%20Sustainable%20Development.pdf#page=80">real markets</a>” to confront market volatility and uncertainty. Such markets are forged through networks of social relationships, allowing for flexibility when the formal markets for sheep’s milk face price crashes. </p>
<p>Important lessons emerge more generally. In surprising ways, <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/what-bankers-should-learn-from-the-traditions-of-pastoralism">pastoralists’ responses to market volatility echo those of bankers and financiers</a> facing financial crises. Instead of technical risk protocols and regulations, a more social, networked basis for trust-building as the basis for managing economic uncertainty, and so averting financial crises, is required.</p>
<h2>4. Disaster and emergency management</h2>
<p>Pastoral areas face constant shocks and stresses ranging from drought, floods, heavy snowfalls, diseases, conflicts and more. In northern Kenya <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2021.2013469">networks of highly skilled pastoralists</a> mobilise knowledge, technology and finance during times of crisis, helping to prevent disasters. Such people may include local forecasters who give a sense of what weather might be in store. They could be scouts on motorbikes scoping out new grazing areas, checking for conflict and other dangers. </p>
<p>Further <a href="https://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/110472/">work</a> in northern Kenya demonstrates how pastoralists survive, thrive and respond to uncertainties through asset redistribution, comradeship, diversification and collective responses to protect the livelihoods from external threats. All this suggests new ways of going about <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/dpr.12613">disaster planning and humanitarian response</a>.</p>
<h2>5. Rethinking land access</h2>
<p>The urge to demarcate, register and control land is strong, as this is the model frequently used in settled agricultural contexts. But this can be disastrous in pastoral areas, restricting movement and so undermining the very basis of pastoral production. </p>
<p>The obsession with private property, individualisation and a market-based approach to land management is anathema to pastoralists, where hybridity, <a href="https://theconversation.com/collective-land-tenure-is-under-threat-in-kenya-why-it-needs-to-be-protected-74393">collective arrangements</a> and continuous negotiation of resource use are central. </p>
<p>As our work in <a href="https://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/106349/">Amdo Tibet in China</a> finds, taking such an approach to land governance seriously disrupts the standard models that dominate policy-making. </p>
<h2>A lifeline to the future</h2>
<p>A world without pastoralists would be a poorer place materially, environmentally and culturally. And we would lose a lifeline to the future, where we can learn how to live with and from uncertainty, just like pastoralists have always done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Scoones receives funding from a European Research Council Advanced Grant for PASTRES (Pastoralism, Uncertainty and Resilience: Global Lessons from the Margins, Grant No. 70432). </span></em></p>
A world without pastoralists would not only be a poorer place, but we would lose an important lifeline to our collective future.
Ian Scoones, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/199180
2023-06-28T03:14:15Z
2023-06-28T03:14:15Z
How should a robot explore the Moon? A simple question shows the limits of current AI systems
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534227/original/file-20230627-21-19eu48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2880%2C1621&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Alberta</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has spurred some leading voices in the field to <a href="https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/">call for a research pause</a>, raise the possibility of <a href="https://www.safe.ai/statement-on-ai-risk">AI-driven human extinction</a>, and even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/24/openai-leaders-call-regulation-prevent-ai-destroying-humanity">ask for government regulation</a>. At the heart of their concern is the idea AI might become so powerful we lose control of it. </p>
<p>But have we missed a more fundamental problem? </p>
<p>Ultimately, AI systems should help humans make better, more accurate decisions. Yet even the most impressive and flexible of today’s AI tools – such as the large language models behind the likes of ChatGPT – can have the opposite effect. </p>
<p>Why? They have two crucial weaknesses. They do not help decision-makers understand causation or uncertainty. And they create incentives to collect huge amounts of data and may encourage a lax attitude to privacy, legal and ethical questions and risks.</p>
<h2>Cause, effect and confidence</h2>
<p>ChatGPT and other “foundation models” use an approach called deep learning to trawl through enormous datasets and identify associations between factors contained in that data, such as the patterns of language or links between images and descriptions. Consequently, they are great at interpolating – that is, predicting or filling in the gaps between known values. </p>
<p>Interpolation is not the same as creation. It does not generate knowledge, nor the insights necessary for decision-makers operating in complex environments. </p>
<p>However, these approaches require huge amounts of data. As a result, they encourage organisations to assemble enormous repositories of data – or trawl through existing datasets collected for other purposes. Dealing with “big data” brings considerable risks around security, privacy, legality and ethics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robots-are-creating-images-and-telling-jokes-5-things-to-know-about-foundation-models-and-the-next-generation-of-ai-181150">Robots are creating images and telling jokes. 5 things to know about foundation models and the next generation of AI</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In low-stakes situations, predictions based on “what the data suggest will happen” can be incredibly useful. But when the stakes are higher, there are two more questions we need to answer. </p>
<p>The first is about how the world works: “what is driving this outcome?” The second is about our knowledge of the world: “how confident are we about this?”</p>
<h2>From big data to useful information</h2>
<p>Perhaps surprisingly, AI systems designed to infer causal relationships don’t need “big data”. Instead, they need <em>useful information</em>. The usefulness of the information depends on the question at hand, the decisions we face, and the value we attach to the consequences of those decisions. </p>
<p>To paraphrase the US statistician and writer Nate Silver, the <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/The_Signal_and_the_Noise/udSFU9G49AcC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=%22a%20relatively%20constant%20amount%20of%20objective%20truth%22&pg=PT16&printsec=frontcover">amount of truth</a> is approximately constant irrespective of the volume of data we collect.</p>
<p>So, what is the solution? The process starts with developing AI techniques that tell us what we genuinely don’t know, rather than producing variations of existing knowledge. </p>
<p>Why? Because this helps us identify and acquire the minimum amount of valuable information, in a sequence that will enable us to disentangle causes and effects.</p>
<h2>A robot on the Moon</h2>
<p>Such knowledge-building AI systems exist already.</p>
<p>As a simple example, consider a robot sent to the Moon to answer the question, “What does the Moon’s surface look like?” </p>
<p>The robot’s designers may give it a prior “belief” about what it will find, along with an indication of how much “confidence” it should have in that belief. The degree of confidence is as important as the belief, because it is a measure of what the robot doesn’t know. </p>
<p>The robot lands and faces a decision: which way should it go?</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bayes-theorem-the-maths-tool-we-probably-use-every-day-but-what-is-it-76140">Bayes' Theorem: the maths tool we probably use every day, but what is it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since the robot’s goal is to learn as quickly as possible about the Moon’s surface, it should go in the direction that maximises its learning. This can be measured by which new knowledge will reduce the robot’s uncertainty about the landscape – or how much it will increase the robot’s confidence in its knowledge. </p>
<p>The robot goes to its new location, records observations using its sensors, and updates its belief and associated confidence. In doing so it learns about the Moon’s surface in the most efficient manner possible.</p>
<p>Robotic systems like this – known as “active SLAM” (Active Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping) – were first proposed <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1041446">more than 20 years ago</a>, and they are still an <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.00254">active area of research</a>. This approach of steadily gathering knowledge and updating understanding is based on a statistical technique called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_optimization">Bayesian optimisation</a>.</p>
<h2>Mapping unknown landscapes</h2>
<p>A decision-maker in government or industry faces more complexity than the robot on the Moon, but the thinking is the same. Their jobs involve exploring and mapping unknown social or economic landscapes.</p>
<p>Suppose we wish to develop policies to encourage all children to thrive at school and finish high school. We need a conceptual map of which actions, at what time, and under what conditions, will help to achieve these goals. </p>
<p>Using the robot’s principles, we formulate an initial question: “Which intervention(s) will most help children?”</p>
<p>Next, we construct a draft conceptual map using existing knowledge. We also need a measure of our confidence in that knowledge.</p>
<p>Then we develop a model that incorporates different sources of information. These won’t be from robotic sensors, but from communities, lived experience, and any useful information from recorded data.</p>
<p>After this, based on the analysis informing the community and stakeholder preferences, we make a decision: “Which actions should be implemented and under which conditions?” </p>
<p>Finally, we discuss, learn, update beliefs and repeat the process.</p>
<h2>Learning as we go</h2>
<p>This is a “learning as we go” approach. As new information comes to hand, new actions are chosen to maximise some pre-specified criteria.</p>
<p>Where AI can be useful is in identifying what information is most valuable, via algorithms that quantify what we don’t know. Automated systems can also gather and store that information at a rate and in places where it may be difficult for humans.</p>
<p>AI systems like this apply what is called a <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2022.0156">Bayesian decision-theoretic framework</a>. Their models are explainable and transparent, built on explicit assumptions. They are mathematically rigorous and can offer guarantees. </p>
<p>They are designed to estimate causal pathways, to help make the best intervention at the best time. And they incorporate human values by being co-designed and co-implemented by the communities that are impacted.</p>
<p>We do need to reform our laws and create new rules to guide the use of potentially dangerous AI systems. But it’s just as important to choose the right tool for the job in the first place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Cripps receives funding from Paul Ramsay Foundation, The Medical Research Futures Fund, the Australian Research Council and The National Health and Medical Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edward Santow, through HTI, receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Davis, through HTI, receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Fischer and Hadi Mohasel Afshar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
To be useful in high-stakes situations, AI needs to understand cause and effect – and the limits of its knowledge.
Sally Cripps, Director of Technology UTS Human Technology Institute, Professor of Mathematcis and Statistics, University of Technology Sydney
Alex Fischer, Honorary Fellow, Australian National University
Edward Santow, Professor & Co-Director, Human Technology Institute, University of Technology Sydney
Hadi Mohasel Afshar, Lead Research Scientist, University of Technology Sydney
Nicholas Davis, Industry Professor of Emerging Technology and Co-Director, Human Technology Institute, University of Technology Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/194036
2023-01-03T13:29:32Z
2023-01-03T13:29:32Z
Americans are taking more control over their work lives – because they have to
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498023/original/file-20221129-16-jn8xtb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3782%2C2155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers take on side hustles not just for the money, but also to compensate for limited control in their traditional jobs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/florida-miami-beach-uber-ridesharing-service-driver-with-news-photo/1263005033?adppopup=true">Jeff Greenberg via Universal Images Group/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One thing that’s become clear in the past few tumultuous – and for many, traumatic – years is that it’s easy to feel like there is no control in our lives. Control is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6494.1995.tb00501.x">basic psychological need</a> that helps people feel like they have agency, from how they live to where they work. One area where people have tried to wrestle back control is around work. </p>
<p>As a Rice University business school professor and <a href="https://www.scottsonenshein.com/">author</a>, I’ve examined through <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YhjQHhAAAAAJ&hl=en">my research</a>, teaching and readership the complex relationships between employees and their employers for nearly two decades. The aftermath of the pandemic is the latest iteration of a timeless negotiation between labor and management over control that took on added significance these past few years.</p>
<p>The pandemic accelerated a development that began years ago when workers realized they needed to take on more responsibility for directing their careers. This major shift reflects a potentially exciting but also unnerving reality for millions of workers.</p>
<h2>From lifer to independent worker</h2>
<p>For decades, employers had the upper hand in negotiating terms with employees. People exchanged unconditional loyalty to an employer for lifetime employment and a secure retirement. That model <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3324911">started to erode</a> with an increase in <a href="https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2000/pdf/ec000050.pdf">corporate restructuring in the 1980s and 1990s</a>. With the prospects of a secure job and comfortable retirement more elusive, employees switched jobs to regain some control. They sought the promise of a higher salary and a better work life. In the past decade, the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/tenure.t01.htm">average tenure at an employer dropped nearly 10%</a>.</p>
<p>During the pandemic, a tight labor market allowed employees <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-managers-burnout-and-health-fears-why-record-numbers-of-hospitality-workers-are-quitting-the-industry-for-good-174588">to use job mobility</a> to feel <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1007914455/as-the-pandemic-recedes-millions-of-workers-are-saying-i-quit">greater control over their lives</a>. Additionally, the freedoms afforded by remote work offset some of the losses of control caused by the pandemic. But the reality is that while changing jobs leads to a <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2005-10696-005">short-term boost in job satisfaction, that feeling is usually only temporary</a>.</p>
<p>In a post-pandemic world, a new model is emerging that reflects concerns of a slowing economy and more uncertain future. Employees are increasingly rejecting the belief that a single job can s<a href="https://www.deloitte.com/content/dam/assets-shared/docs/deloitte-2022-genz-millennial-survey.pdf">atisfy all of their financial and psychological needs</a>. Instead, people are turning to building a portfolio of simultaneous roles to create their career. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/10/why-you-should-build-a-career-portfolio-not-a-career-path">“career portfolioing,”</a> employees become free agents, relying increasingly on themselves to carve out a meaningful and rewarding professional life. They put together a mosaic of positions to collectively fulfill their aspirations around income, advancement, skill development and enjoyment. They are no longer subject to a longstanding relationship with a single, lifetime employer, or dependent on a strong job market.</p>
<p>One sign of the rise of career portfolioing is the increase in side hustles. In 2021, 34% of Americans reported having a side hustle, and over <a href="https://zapier.com/blog/side-hustle-report/">60 million people planned to start one</a>. As inflation rose, side hustles provided extra income in the face of soaring prices. But people also turned to side hustles for new learning opportunities (28%) and to find more enjoyable work (38%).</p>
<p><iframe id="yya9r" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yya9r/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In research I’ve been conducting on side hustles in the sharing economy, I am finding that many people take these gigs to compensate for limited control in their “traditional” jobs. Although gig work comes with its own set of challenges – lack of benefits is a key one – people feel liberated by greater control over where, when and how they work. Switching on an app shifts allegiance from one company to another. Turning off an app ends the workday in an instant. People rely on side hustles to earn additional income but also because of the freedom that comes from being an independent worker.</p>
<p>Another benefit of portfolioing is hedging risk. Sudden layoffs, such as those recently <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/14/1136659617/tech-layoffs-amazon-meta-twitter">affecting the tech industry</a>, leave people feeling exposed to financial hardship and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-9536(93)90316-V">identity loss from being involuntarily sent to the exit</a>. When facing difficult times at one job, people can turn to other parts of their career portfolio for security and stability.</p>
<h2>Taking action on values</h2>
<p>During the pandemic, people’s sense of mortality increased as the threat of serious illness or even death spread. Such times often prompt a deep reflection on values, including the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000983">purpose of work</a>. When people took stock of their jobs, many did not like what they saw and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000983">quit at record numbers</a>. Or, if they stayed, they increasingly pushed employers to align better with their values. </p>
<p>Historically, business organizations stayed quiet about controversial social issues, such as LGBTQ rights, racial justice and abortion – unless there was a <a href="https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/takeaway/segments/corporations-stay-silent-abortion">very direct profit motive</a>. That’s changed dramatically as employees increasingly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/most-workers-want-their-employer-to-share-their-values.html">demand clarity on company values</a> – and actions to back them up. Sixty percent of workers approve of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/workers-eager-to-see-corporate-bosses-speak-out-on-politics.html">business leaders speaking out on social and political issues</a>, and one quarter of respondents to a recent survey reported turning down a job opportunity <a href="https://profilemagazine.com/2022/workers-want-companies-to-speak-out-about-social-issues/">because of a company’s position on social issues</a>. </p>
<p>Employees, too, appear to be more comfortable expressing their views. At the beginning of the century, I conducted <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2007-00845-004">one of my first research studies</a> on understanding how employees convince their workplaces to take a stance on divisive social issues. I found that employees concealed their values by framing them as economic opportunities. For example, sustainability initiatives around energy efficiency were cast as good for the bottom line.</p>
<p>When I recently <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2019-02020-001">ran a similar study</a>, the dynamics had shifted. Employees were much more willing to talk about moral values and less willing to translate social issues into business issues. Such a dramatic reversal reflects employees’ growing sense of empowerment to make work more aligned with their needs. It’s hard to feel in control of your life if you need to suppress or even contradict deeply held values at a place where you spend most of your waking day.</p>
<h2>A better future for work</h2>
<p>Career portfolioing reflects a future in which uncertainty is too high to rely on a single institution to fulfill basic needs, and a failure of modern work organizations to deliver what employees truly value. </p>
<p>For employees, career portfolioing means more latitude over how their career unfolds. Instead of rising to the next rung of an often pre-defined and inflexible corporate ladder, they might instead think about the next addition to their portfolio, whether starting a new part-time job, taking a new class or pursuing a business idea. Elements of a career portfolio not only get added to produce income or personal growth, but also to support a person’s values. </p>
<p>No doubt, there are potential obstacles. Taking responsibility for a career portfolio requires additional effort. In our book “<a href="https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/marie-kondo/joy-at-work/9781549122552/">Joy at Work</a>,” co-author Marie Kondo and I find that it’s all too easy to take on too many tasks and subsequently burn out. People get trapped into thinking the more they do, the better they’ll feel. Avoiding burnout starts with anchoring a career portfolio based on values and an ideal work life.</p>
<p>For employers, career portfolioing means competing for the full attention of their own workforce. I believe it should prompt a deeper reflection about how to better meet the needs of employees – or else they may leave or <a href="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/398306/quiet-quitting-real.aspx">quiet quit</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Sonenshein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
‘Career portfolioing’ is a trend where people assemble different sources of income, such as side gigs, to give them a measure of independence from employers who provide little job security.
Scott Sonenshein, Professor of Management, Rice University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/193697
2022-11-09T13:38:32Z
2022-11-09T13:38:32Z
Why magical thinking is so widespread – a look at the psychological roots of common superstitions
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494147/original/file-20221108-20-jowi62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=68%2C0%2C5623%2C3797&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lucky charms help us feel safer in an uncertain world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/inside-of-a-taxi-royalty-free-image/80486695?phrase=superstition%20mirror&adppopup=true">Image Source via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Growing up in Greece, I spent my summers at my grandparents’ home in a small coastal village in the region of Chalkidiki. It was warm and sunny, and I passed most of my time playing in the streets with my cousins. But occasionally, the summer storms brought torrential rain. You could see them coming from far away, with black clouds looming over the horizon, lit up by lightning.</p>
<p>As I rushed home, I was intrigued to see my grandparents prepare for the thunderstorm. Grandma would cover a large mirror on the living room wall with a dark cloth and throw a blanket over the TV. Meanwhile, Grandpa would climb a ladder to remove the light bulb over the patio door. Then they switched off all the lights in the house and waited the storm out.</p>
<p>I never understood why they did all this. When I asked, they said that light attracts lightning. At least that was what people said, so better to be on the safe side.</p>
<p>Where do these kinds of beliefs come from?</p>
<p>My fascination with <a href="https://www.littlebrownspark.com/titles/dimitris-xygalatas/ritual/9780316462402/">seemingly bizarre cultural beliefs and practices</a> eventually led me to become an anthropologist. I have come across similar superstitions around the world, and although one may marvel at their variety, they share some common features.</p>
<h2>The principles of magical thinking</h2>
<p>At the core of most superstitions are certain intuitive notions about how the world works. Early anthropologists described these intuitions in terms of principles such as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2021.2006294">similarity” and “contagion</a>.” </p>
<p>According to the principle of similarity, things that look alike may share some deeper connection, just as the members of a family tend to resemble each other both in appearance and in other traits. Of course, this is not always the case. But this inference feels natural, so we often abuse it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of a black cat, a broken mirror and the words, Friday the 13th." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At the core of most superstitions are intuitive notions about how the world works.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/friday-the-13th-black-cat-royalty-free-illustration/1285396482?phrase=superstition%20broken%20mirror&adppopup=true">Andry Djumantara/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Case in point: The light reflected on the surface of a mirror is not related to the light resulting from the electrical discharges produced <a href="https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/239-lightning-explained">during a thunderstorm</a>. But because they both seem to give off light, a connection between the two was plausible enough to become <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=1Mc4qPiICvcC&pg=PT1100&lpg=PT1100&dq=mirrors+%22attract+lightning%22+superstition&source=bl&ots=LVd49J3fHl&sig=ACfU3U3sbqS-vHXpUTiXa-ytwQ9HJ_qShg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiPlYGxgp_7AhXEkokEHTcFAVg4FBDoAXoECD8QAw#v=onepage&q=mirrors%20%22attract%20lightning%22%20superstition&f=false">folk wisdom</a> in many parts of the world. Likewise, because our reflection on the mirror closely resembles our own image, many cultures hold that breaking a mirror brings bad luck, as if damage to that reflection would also mean <a href="http://www.mirrorhistory.com/mirror-facts/broken-mirror/">damage to ourselves</a>.</p>
<p>The principle of contagion is based on the idea that things have internal properties that can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/demolishing-schools-after-a-mass-shooting-reflects-humans-deep-rooted-desire-for-purification-rituals-184826">transmitted through contact</a>. The heat of a fire is transferred to anything it touches, and some illnesses can spread from one organism to another. Whether consciously or unconsciously, people in all cultures often expect that other kinds of essences can also be transferred through contact. </p>
<p>For example, people often believe that certain essences can “rub off” on someone, which is why casino players sometimes touch someone who is on a winning streak. It is also why, in 2014, a statue of Juliet, the Shakespearean character who fell madly in love with Romeo, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/veronas-juliet-statue-damaged-beyond-repair-love-seeking-tourists">had to be replaced</a> due to excessive wear caused by visitors touching it to find love.</p>
<h2>A search for patterns</h2>
<p>These kinds of superstitions betray something more general about the way people think. To make sense of our world, we look for patterns in nature. When two things occur at around the same time, they may be related. For instance, black clouds are associated with rain.</p>
<p>But the world is far too complex. Most of the time, <a href="https://www.statology.org/correlation-does-not-imply-causation-examples/">correlation does not mean causation</a>, although it may feel like it does. </p>
<p>If you wear a new shirt to the stadium and your team wins, you might wear it again. If another victory comes, you begin to see a pattern. This now becomes your lucky shirt. In reality, myriad other things have changed since the last game, but you do not have access to all those things. What you know for sure is that you wore the lucky shirt, and the result was favorable.</p>
<h2>Superstitions are comforting</h2>
<p>People really want their lucky charms to work. So when they don’t, we are less motivated to remember them, or we may attribute our luck to some other factor. If their team loses, they might blame the referee. But when their team wins, they are <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/201504/what-is-confirmation-bias">more likely to notice the lucky shirt</a>, and more likely to declare to others that it worked, which helps spread the idea.</p>
<p>As a social species, so much of what we know about the world comes from common wisdom. It would therefore seem safe to assume that if other people believe in the utility of a particular action, there might be something to it. If people around you say you should not eat those mushrooms, it’s probably a good idea to avoid them. </p>
<p>This “better safe than sorry” strategy is one of the main reasons superstitions are so widespread. Another reason is that they simply feel good. </p>
<p>Research shows that rituals and superstitions <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-need-rituals-especially-in-times-of-uncertainty-134321">spike during times of uncertainty</a>, and performing them can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0431">help reduce anxiety</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0021-9029.2006.00116.x">boost performance</a>. When people feel powerless, turning to familiar actions provides a sense of control, which, even if illusory, can still be comforting.</p>
<p>Thanks to these psychological effects, superstitions have been around for ages, and will likely be around for ages to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dimitris Xygalatas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
An anthropologist explains why we all have some irrational beliefs and the reason they give us comfort.
Dimitris Xygalatas, Associate Professor of Anthropology and Psychological Sciences, University of Connecticut
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/183328
2022-10-04T12:24:02Z
2022-10-04T12:24:02Z
Medical guidelines that embrace the humility of uncertainty could help doctors choose treatments with more research evidence behind them
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487393/original/file-20220929-13-rdzy69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2121%2C1412&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clinical guidelines can change when new research provides contradictory findings.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/female-doctor-leading-medical-team-discussion-in-royalty-free-image/1211642642">Thomas Barwick/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Clinical guidelines greatly influence how doctors care for their patients. By providing recommendations on how to diagnose and treat particular situations, guidelines can help standardize the care patients receive. For instance, when a patient is suffering from an infection, a physician can consult the relevant guidelines to confirm that antibiotics are the appropriate treatment. Regulators, insurance payers and lawyers can also use guidelines to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13012-015-0369-z">manage a doctor’s performance</a>, or as evidence in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/virtualmentor.2011.13.1.hlaw1-1101">malpractice cases</a>. Often, guidelines compel doctors to provide care in specific ways.</p>
<p><a href="https://medicine.umich.edu/dept/orthopaedic-surgery/jaimo-ahn-md-phd">We</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vMbPdAMAAAAJ&hl=en">are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=duyhV8AAAAAJ&hl=en">physicians</a> who share a common frustration with guidelines based on weak or no evidence. We wanted to create a new approach to medical guidelines built around the <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-3034">humility of uncertainty</a>, in which care recommendations are only made when data is available to support the care. In the absence of such data, guidelines could instead present the pros and cons of various care options.</p>
<p>We got together an international team of physicians and pharmacists to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.11321">create a guideline on creating guidelines</a>. We call this new type of guideline a WikiGuideline, not affiliated with Wikipedia but similarly opening collaboration to all people. The idea was to enable any qualified practitioner to have a voice in guideline construction, rather than limiting authorship to academics who are politically active in specialty societies in wealthy countries.</p>
<h2>Why a new guideline for medical guidelines?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1468-0009.2007.00505.x">clinical guidelines movement</a> first began to gain steam in the 1960s. Guideline committees, usually composed of subspecialty experts from academic medical centers, would base care criteria on randomized clinical trials, considered the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60742-5">gold standard</a> of empirical evidence.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, many committees have since started providing answers to clinical questions even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab033">without data</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cardfail.2016.07.433">from high-quality</a> clinical trials. Instead, they have based recommendations primarily on anecdotal experiences or low-quality data.</p>
<p>Medical guidelines made with insufficient data can lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-3034">patient harm</a>. </p>
<p>For example, guidelines once instructed doctors to prescribe hormone replacement therapy to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31709-X">all post-menopausal women</a> to prevent breast cancer. However, a subsequent large randomized controlled trial showed that giving hormone replacement therapy actually increased the risk of breast cancer. While guidelines have <a href="https://www.uptodate.com/contents/menopausal-hormone-therapy-and-the-risk-of-breast-cancer">since been updated</a> to narrow down who would benefit from hormone replacement therapy, prior practices have likely resulted in breast cancer for many patients.</p>
<p>Other poorly made guidelines have also seen similar results. </p>
<p>A guideline that instructed doctors to use higher doses of an antibiotic called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ki.2010.35">vancomycin for bacterial infections</a> was later shown to not be more effective and also increase the risk of kidney failure. Likewise, a guideline that promoted aggressive, rapid administration of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1164/rccm.201908-1581ST">antibiotics to patients who may have pneumonia</a> was found to not improve outcomes and cause side effects for patients who did not actually end up diagnosed with pneumonia.</p>
<p>Another guideline promoted the use of medications called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.11349">beta blockers</a> for certain types of surgeries before researchers learned that they increased the risk of heart attacks during and after the procedures. Similarly, a guideline promoting the use of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa052521">intensive insulin therapy in the ICU</a> was later shown to cause blood sugar levels to drop to dangerously low levels.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MmjVo0wYzsQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">While guidelines provide recommendations, doctors will still need to use their subjective clinical judgment for each case.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A WikiGuideline for bone infection</h2>
<p>To create a new form of medical guideline that takes the strength of available evidence for a particular practice into account, we gathered 60 other physicians and pharmacists from eight countries on Twitter to draft the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.11321">first WikiGuideline</a>. Bone infections were voted as the conditions most in need of new guidelines.</p>
<p>We all voted on seven questions about bone infection diagnosis and management to include in the guideline, then broke into teams to generate answers. Each volunteer searched the medical literature and drafted answers to a clinical question based on the data. These answers were repeatedly revised in open dialogue with the group.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Health care providers sitting at conference table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487392/original/file-20220929-14-reep1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Opening guideline committees to nonacademic or specialty society health care providers could bring new perspectives to guideline creation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mature-male-doctor-leading-medical-team-meeting-royalty-free-image/529400761">Thomas Barwick/Stone via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These efforts ultimately generated a document with more than 500 references and provided clarity to how providers currently manage bone infections. Of the seven questions we posed, only two had sufficient high-quality data to make a “clear recommendation” on how providers should treat bone infection. The remaining five questions were answered with reviews that provided pros and cons of various care options.</p>
<p>The recommendations WikiGuidelines arrived at differ from current bone infection guidelines by professional group for medical specialists. For example, WikiGuidelines makes a clear recommendation to use oral antibiotics for bone infections based on numerous randomized controlled trials. Current standard guidelines, however, recommend giving intravenous antibiotics, despite the evidence that giving treatment orally is not only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1710926">just as effective</a> as giving it intravenously, but is also safer and results in fewer side effects.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Providers benefit from careful review of a clinical case. When there isn’t enough data to make a clear recommendation, laying out what data is available can help inform their clinical judgment. </p>
<p>We believe that more inclusive guideline committees that open participation to qualified practitioners instead of just those within specialty societies could help make for better medical guidelines. The <a href="https://www.wikiguidelines.com">WikiGuidelines Group</a> now has over 110 members from over 14 countries, many of which are lower- and lower-middle-income countries. We are currently working on a guideline for managing heart valve infections.</p>
<p>It is our hope that future guidelines can avoid the errors of the past by incorporating the humility of uncertainty into the process, acknowledging when the evidence is unclear and only issuing clear recommendations when high quality data can support them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I have participated in multiple aspects of clinical practice guideline creation on multiple occasions.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Spellberg and Robert Centor do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
How doctors care for their patients is highly influenced by clinical guidelines. Recommendations based on anecdotal experience or poor data can harm patients.
Brad Spellberg, Chief Medical Officer at the Los Angeles County + University of Southern California Medical Center, Adjunct Professor of Medicine, University of Southern California
Jaimo Ahn, Gehring Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Michigan
Robert Centor, Professor Emeritus of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/176968
2022-04-19T12:19:46Z
2022-04-19T12:19:46Z
Pandemic decision-making is difficult and exhausting – here’s the psychology that explains why
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458383/original/file-20220418-22-mu1qko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=367%2C62%2C4848%2C3409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">So much uncertainty around risk can make it extra hard to decide what to do.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-hipster-woman-using-a-smart-phone-in-her-royalty-free-image/990991128">Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You want to sit down for an indoor dinner with friends. A couple of years ago, this was a simple enough activity that required minimal planning. However, that is not the case in today’s world. Many people now face a stream of further considerations about benefits and risks.</p>
<p>Will I enjoy the experience? What are the potential downsides? Am I comfortable with the restaurant’s pandemic-related policies? What’s the ventilation like? Is it very busy there at this time of day? Am I planning to see lots of people, or people with compromised immune systems, in the near future? </p>
<p>This is exhausting! <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gFXRTf4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As scientists</a> <a href="https://tricomilab.wixsite.com/ldmlab/people">at the</a> <a href="https://tricomilab.wixsite.com/ldmlab">Learning and Decision-Making Lab</a> at Rutgers University-Newark, we’ve noticed how many decision-making processes are affected by the pandemic. The accumulation of choices people are making throughout the day leads to what psychologists call <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jean-Twenge/publication/237738528_Decision_Fatigue_Exhausts_Self-Regulatory_Resources_-_But_So_Does_Accommodating_to_Unchosen_Alternatives/links/554b9ee40cf21ed21359ccbd/Decision-Fatigue-Exhausts-Self-Regulatory-Resources-But-So-Does-Accommodating-to-Unchosen-Alternatives.pdf">decision fatigue</a> – you can end up feeling overwhelmed and make bad decisions. The current pandemic can make this situation more pronounced, as even the choices and activities that should be the most simple can now feel tinged with risk and uncertainty. </p>
<p>Risk involves known probabilities – for example, the likelihood of losing a certain hand in poker. But <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/305826/the-signal-and-the-noise-by-nate-silver/">uncertainty is an unknown probability</a> – you can never really know the exact chance of catching COVID-19 by engaging in certain activities. Human beings tend to be both risk-averse and uncertainty-averse, meaning that you likely avoid both when you can. And when you can’t – as during a confusing phase of a pandemic – it can be draining to try to decide what to do.</p>
<h2>Rules are easy, decisions are hard</h2>
<p>Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most people didn’t think through some basic decisions in the same way they might now. In fact, even early in the pandemic you didn’t really need to. There were rules to follow whether you liked them or not. Capacity was limited, hours were restricted, or shops were closed. People were strongly urged to opt out of activities they’d normally engage in.</p>
<p>This is evident in data we collected from university students in fall 2020 and spring 2021. One question we asked was, “What has been the hardest part of the pandemic for you?” Responses included “Not being able to see my friends and family,” “Having to take classes online,” “Being forced to stay home” and many other similar frustrations. </p>
<p>Many of our survey respondents were either not able to do things they wanted to do or were forced to do things they didn’t want to do. In either case, the guidelines were clear-cut and the decisions were less of a struggle.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="masked cafe worker puts out an 'open' sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458384/original/file-20220418-76603-u14lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A pandemic world that is open for business sets the scene for a lot more daily decisions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/all-set-to-restart-business-royalty-free-image/1272761167">pixdeluxe/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As restrictions ease and people think about “living with” the coronavirus, the current phase of the pandemic brings with it a new need to make cost-benefit calculations.</p>
<p>It’s important to remember that not everyone has experienced these kinds of decisions in the same way. Throughout the course of the pandemic there have been people who did not have the luxury of choice and needed to go to work regardless of the risk. There have also been those who have taken risks all along. On the other end of the spectrum, some people continue to stay isolated and avoid almost every situation with the potential for contracting COVID-19.</p>
<p>Those who experience the most decision fatigue are those who are in the middle – they want to avoid COVID-19 but also want to get back to the activities they enjoyed before the pandemic.</p>
<h2>Shortcuts can short-circuit decision-making</h2>
<p>Psychologist Daniel Kahneman wrote in his book “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374533557/thinking-fast-and-slow">Thinking, Fast and Slow</a>” that “when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead.”</p>
<p>Making decisions about risk and uncertainty is hard. For instance, trying to think through the probability of catching a potentially deadly virus while going to an indoor movie theater is difficult. So people tend to think in terms of binaries – “this is safe” or “this is unsafe” – because it’s easier.</p>
<p>The problem is that answering easier questions instead of trickier ones leaves you vulnerable to cognitive biases, or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.002">errors in thought that affect your decision-making</a>.</p>
<p>One of the most prevalent of these biases is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9">availability heuristic</a>. That’s what psychologists call the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily it comes to mind. How much a certain event is covered in the media, or whether you’ve seen instances of it recently in your life, can sway your estimate. For example, if you’ve seen stories of a plane crash in the news recently, you may believe the probability of being in a plane crash to be higher than it actually is.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p>
<p>The effect of the availability heuristic on pandemic-era decision-making often manifests as making choices based on individual cases rather than on overall trends. On one side, people may feel fine going to a crowded indoor concert because they know others in their lives who have done this and have been fine – so they judge the likelihood of catching the coronavirus to be lower as a result. On the other hand, someone who knows a friend whose child caught COVID-19 at school may now think the risks of transmission in schools are much higher than they really are.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the availability heuristic means these days you think much more about the risks of catching COVID-19 than about other risks life entails that receive less media attention. While you’re worrying about the adequacy of a restaurant’s ventilation system, you overlook the danger of getting into a car accident on your way there.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman seated in restaurant booth looks out the window pensively" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458385/original/file-20220418-87032-gbe2cc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You can’t know for sure whether you’ll get infected after meeting a friend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/pensive-woman-sitting-by-herself-in-a-restaurant-at-royalty-free-image/1138424247">LeoPatrizi/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A constant process</h2>
<p>Decisions in general, and during a pandemic in particular, are about weighing risks and benefits and dealing with risk and uncertainty.</p>
<p>Because of the nature of probability, you can’t be sure in advance whether you’ll catch COVID-19 after agreeing to dine at a friend’s house. Furthermore, the outcome does not make your decision right or wrong. If you weigh the risks and benefits and accept that dinner invitation, only to end up contracting COVID-19 at the meal, it doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision – it just means you rolled the dice and came up short.</p>
<p>On the flip side, if you accept the dinner invitation and don’t end up with COVID-19, don’t get too smug; another time, the outcome might be different. All you can do is try to weigh what you know of the costs and benefits and make the best decisions you can.</p>
<p>During this next phase of the pandemic, we recommend remembering that uncertainty is a part of life. Be kind to yourself and others as we all try to make our best choices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
People tend to dislike uncertainty and risk – two things that are hard to avoid completely during a pandemic. That’s part of why it can feel especially draining to make even small decisions these days.
Elizabeth Tricomi, Associate Professor of Psychology, Rutgers University - Newark
Wesley Ameden, Ph.D. Student in Psychology, Rutgers University - Newark
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/174075
2022-03-09T16:24:45Z
2022-03-09T16:24:45Z
Embracing uncertainty: what Kenyan herders can teach us about living in a volatile world
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443483/original/file-20220131-13-6dgw1f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=458%2C970%2C4482%2C2937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lolampa, a Turkana herder, with his goats and sheep.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Loura Ekaale sits down on his carved wooden stool. He sips a cup of black instant coffee, a substance he has taken to calling his “medicine” (inexplicably, he claims it helps him fall asleep). I have been making it for him each afternoon, with my small gas cooker. This has become a routine for us; he roams over to my canvas tent as the sun begins to set and I boil the kettle. We sit there talking about the day as one of his sons, Lolampa, wanders in from the hills behind us, driving the family’s sheep and goats back into their enclosure.</p>
<p>I have known Loura for almost two years now, during which time I have regularly set up my research camp beside his family home, close to the Loriu Hills in Turkana, northern Kenya. This 68,000 square kilometre arid region is one of the most remote areas in Kenya. To the north is South Sudan and a disputed, lawless section of grazing land called the Ilemi Triangle, claimed by both South Sudan and Kenya. To the west is the homeland of the Karamojong in northern Uganda, and to the east is <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/801/">Lake Turkana</a> itself, the world’s largest permanent desert lake.</p>
<p>The Turkana region’s southern boundary is the only one connecting it with the rest of Kenya on land, a fact that has led its population to endure a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Remembering-Turkana-Material-Histories-and-Contemporary-Livelihoods-in/Derbyshire/p/book/9780367431099">long history</a> of socio-economic and political marginalisation, spanning both the colonial and postcolonial periods. Its population is largely comprised of highly mobile pastoralists – that is, communities who rely on herds of domesticated livestock, which they graze on communal, open range lands.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men and a child sitting in front of a tent with car to the right" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=221%2C1032%2C4284%2C2416&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441255/original/file-20220118-21-1wr8rjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Loura Ekaale with two of his sons, Lolampa and Anam, in the foreground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Loura has two wives and ten children. My research into how people forge their livelihoods in this harsh and unpredictable region has been greatly influenced by his insight. </p>
<p>Like most people here, one of his foremost concerns is the weather. Whenever clouds form overhead, they must be scrutinised carefully and discussed. Meanwhile, prominent seers in nearby villages offer their predictions about when the next downpour will come. Rain has always been unpredictable in this place. The whole of northern Kenya has seen widespread and recurrent droughts since beyond living memory. But in recent decades, climate change has intensified this <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0013rn2">unpredictability</a>. Vegetation that is diminished and more sparsely scattered than ever before must now support the livestock of a population that has <a href="https://www.knbs.or.ke/2019-kenya-population-and-housing-census-results/">grown rapidly</a> over the last 50 years.</p>
<p>Such acute resource scarcity sustains longstanding inter-ethnic conflicts. Loura and his first wife, Nakiru, migrated to their current location ten years ago, fleeing from an area close to an administrative and ethnic border dividing the Turkana from their southern pastoralist neighbours, the Pokot.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people tie sticks together to create a wall in a sandy landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441260/original/file-20220118-17-hta9ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nakiru, Lorot and Amug of the Ekaale family constructing a new homestead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sometimes, in our daily conversations, Loura tells me how difficult things were back there, and now and then he is visited by old friends and family members who travel up from the border to see him. They sit outside my tent with their Kalashnikovs slung over their shoulders or propped up against their thighs, telling stories about violent skirmishes and cattle raids. I make them coffee too. They are good-humoured, for the most part.</p>
<p>One would be forgiven for assuming that increased pressure on already scant resources, conflict along territorial boundaries and scanter, less predictable rainfall are the extent of north-western Kenya’s troubles. But this is not the case.</p>
<p>Other forms of ecological degradation, largely caused by external activities, threaten major water sources. The Kerio, one of only two major rivers in Turkana, has suffered catastrophically in recent years. Heightened irrigation activity upstream and the haphazard introduction of an invasive, deep-rooted kind of mesquite (a shrub native to Mexico, South America and the Carribean) by NGOs in the early 1980s now mean that it is often dry for several years at a time (it used to flood every year). Lake Turkana itself is threatened by <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/oturn/briefing_notes">damming activity</a> in Ethiopia along its major water source, the Omo.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>This story is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> and is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects to tackle societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Uncertainty</h2>
<p>Standing back and looking at this conglomeration of troubles, it is hard not to feel despondent. As with many other historically marginalised parts of Africa, the stories about Turkana that make it into the mainstream media tend to be couched in the language of crisis and disaster. Perhaps it doesn’t help that its only representation in a feature film was in the popular adaptation of John le Carré’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2005/nov/11/3">The Constant Gardener</a>, where it was the wild, lawless setting for a brutal assassination.</p>
<p>Some may argue that negativity about Africa’s pastoralist homelands is warranted. But others have suggested that such a focus has brought forth inappropriate responses from the development sector.</p>
<p>Over the years, this perception of crisis and turbulence has provoked solutions that have sought to impose new forms of uniformity, order and stability, many of which have met with calamitous failure. Recently, researchers have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPub-BPhxG4">begun to emphasise</a> the need to stop fixating on the uncertainty itself, and instead to look beyond it. That is, to base development efforts on the ways people are already managing it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tent and car in a grassland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441258/original/file-20220118-17-1j4m0ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our research camp in Moru Sipo, southern Turkana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Independent organisations such as the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) <a href="https://pubs.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/10128IIED.pdf">have argued</a> that a more prosperous future can only be achieved by supporting what communities in Africa’s drylands are already doing to exploit the changing and unpredictable resources around them.</p>
<p>The research my team and I have undertaken over the last few years has supported this argument with <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/9/885">new case studies</a> from Turkana, exploring changing patterns of movement and the transforming relationship between cultivators and specialised herders.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a <a href="https://pastres.org/">research programme</a> at the University of Sussex has gone a step further, arguing that pastoralist adaptations contain unexplored connections with other, perhaps more familiar domains and sectors that are uncertain. For example; financial and commodity systems, critical infrastructure management, disease outbreak responses, migration policy, climate change and conflict and security governance (to name but a few). Developed countries, <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/14470">they argue</a>, may have a lot to learn from those forging their livelihoods in ecologically and politically volatile contexts.</p>
<p>Knowing Loura’s past, it is difficult to disagree with this thinking. His life story is a playbook for how to thrive in unpredictable circumstances. Study it carefully enough and it will yield important lessons, whatever challenge you may be facing.</p>
<p>But the ingenuity and skill of the Turkana has rarely been recognised. In fact, in many instances their responses to moments of crisis have directly contradicted the interventions of large-scale development programmes.</p>
<h2>The Turkana Rehabilitation Project</h2>
<p>In the early 1980s, following a severe drought, a famine took hold across Turkana. In response, a collaboration emerged between the Kenyan government and the European Economic Community, which set about settling people into so-called “famine camps”. The scheme was called the <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9781003001263-12/cars-relief-food-irrigation-canals-samuel-derbyshire">Turkana Rehabilitation Project</a>. It was a success at first, alleviating mass starvation and radically reducing associated deaths. But it began to struggle when it sought to instigate its second objective: a five-year land rehabilitation plan, encouraging mobile herders to settle permanently into sedentary riverside agricultural schemes. This, they envisaged, was a more sustainable, stable way of getting along.</p>
<p>While researching this scheme for <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Remembering-Turkana-Material-Histories-and-Contemporary-Livelihoods-in/Derbyshire/p/book/9780367431099">my recent book</a> about the region, I was often told by my interviewees that it was doomed as soon as the local population figured out what it was trying to achieve. For a society fundamentally disposed to hedging its bets, the idea of whole families settling permanently in one place to farm riverside plots appeared both nonsensical and dangerous.</p>
<p>It was not that farming itself was seen as worthless. On the contrary, farming has always been important in the regional economy. But it has always been just one piece of a larger jigsaw of flexible livelihoods. In early 2015, I spent several days talking about this with Emeri Lowasa, the head of a large and influential family in southern Turkana. From her farmland on the edge of the Kerio River (now strangled by the invasive mesqusite introduced in the 1980s) she told me about a time when there were “no kiosks, no markets and no roads”. It was then, she recalled, that she and her family were regularly trading the sorghum (a cereal grain) they grew by the river to visiting herders for livestock and milk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line of sticks mark out a boundary in the land." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441262/original/file-20220118-13-3emxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A boundary between two Turkana farms lying fallow on the bank of the Kerio River, mesquite growing in the background.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Emeri’s family, and their wider social network, have always been spread across many different livelihoods. During times of abundance, their different livelihoods complement each other (livestock being exchanged for grain). During times of scarcity, her family members survive by turning to whatever in their repertoire of activities is still tenable.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, perhaps, most of the people who had been settled into the Turkana Rehabilitation Project’s famine camps merely exploited the nutritional security that relief food handouts provided to grow their dwindling herds. When climatic conditions shifted once more, they departed the camps altogether to return to a semi-nomadic life.</p>
<p>This dynamism is simply what is necessary in a place that has never offered predictability or uniformity. Uncertainty must be embraced, harnessed for the better. Stability never lasts long, and if you invest everything in it, you are sure to meet with catastrophe.</p>
<p>Even for those involved in the most specialised, highly mobile forms of herding, extreme variability in rain and vegetation has never been an insurmountable threat. In fact, their livelihood allows them to be as productive as is humanly possible in a place with such uncertain ecological characteristics. By carefully managing rates of consumption in their livestock, herders like Loura are able to make the most of scarce and changing vegetation. The size and constitution of his herd also changes over time in tune with prevailing conditions, allowing him and his family to endure over the long term, weathering radical environmental shifts. The knowledge that makes all this possible is highly complex.</p>
<h2>Fragility</h2>
<p>Of course, societies across the developed world are not going to abandon industry and commerce to take up semi-nomadic pastoralism any time soon. But this is not the point. The point is that whether we like it or not, many in the west are now charged with the task of remaining productive during a period of environmental, political and economic turbulence that seems more pronounced than ever before. So why not look to Turkana for some guidance?</p>
<p>It is not difficult to find starting points. Loura’s careful management of his herd’s consumption to maximise the nutritional value of scant resources resonates with the broader challenge of living more sustainably in the face of climate change. Likewise, many of us would benefit from learning how to be more open, both physically and psychologically, to radical shifts in routine.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young man walks behind a herd of goats in a grassland landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441263/original/file-20220118-27-1efmc2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lolampa with the family herd.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Across the world, COVID lockdowns and restrictions have shattered old forms of reliability, predictability and comfort. They have laid bare the fragility of entire economic systems. Even in places with high vaccination rates, few are allowing themselves to return to the sense of complacency that came before. The future is anything but certain. In short, we must learn how to make our lives and livelihoods less fragile, less vulnerable to the shocks of random turbulence that are sure to return.</p>
<p>To the statistician, essayist and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, this requires us to think more carefully about what the opposite end of the fragility spectrum really is. <a href="https://www.edge.org/conversation/understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility">He argues</a> that it is not resilience or robustness; not the weathering of uncertainty by blocking it out and shielding interior forms of stability and uniformity. The antithesis of fragility is actually something called “antifragility”, that is, the ability to actively gain from disorder, and to get stronger by means of random shocks (not despite them).</p>
<p>Taleb has explained his concept through multiple case studies, ranging from the 2008 financial crisis to biological processes like evolution. Even information itself, he says, is anti-fragile, “because it feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it”.</p>
<p>The idea of anti-fragility provokes new questions of places like Turkana, where time and again internationally funded interventions aimed at fixing various perceived economic and social issues have simply instigated forms of fragile, short-term stability that have collapsed into failure at the first sign of trouble. The Turkana Rehabilitation Project was by no means an anomaly.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman sits on sand, smiling at the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441265/original/file-20220118-17-1idosft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emeri Lowasa at her home in Nakurio, by the Kerio River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The NORAD scheme</h2>
<p>In 1970, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) began work in the region to develop a commercial fishing industry, the history of which I explored in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00020184.2018.1519930">recent article</a>. NORAD spent over two million US dollars (over 14 million in today’s money) building a monumental fish drying and freezing factory beside Fergusson’s Gulf, a sleepy cluster of fishing villages on the western shore of Lake Turkana.</p>
<p>Within a few years, however, the buildings had all been abandoned and bolted shut. With fluctuations in the economy, the freezing of lake fish had proven financially impracticable at an off-the-grid location. The overly complex system put in place by the scheme to facilitate the movement of fish from lakeside villages to the factory and then on to markets was inefficient and prone to corruption. The final nail in the coffin came in the form of a drought to the north-east, which desiccated the Omo River and caused Lake Turkana’s levels to recede drastically. Fergusson’s gulf dried out; its fishery collapsed.</p>
<p>Once again, a scheme that had aimed to achieve prosperity by means of systemic rigidity and uniformity was undone by the uncertain context in which it was established.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A deserted concrete and corrugated iron building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441266/original/file-20220118-19-19k5ah1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The factory built by NORAD at Kalokol, on the western shore of Lake Turkana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking back, it is easy to cast aspersions on developmental failures. They are rendered simpler and more obvious by hindsight. It is not true to say that international aid and development – in general – have been pointless in Turkana. The Turkana Rehabilitation Project no doubt saved thousands from starvation through the simple distribution of relief food. The NORAD scheme saw huge and much-needed investments in regional infrastructure and the allocation of vital fishing equipment.</p>
<p>In both instances, the problem was not the decision to intervene in the first place, nor was it necessarily the form or scale of material investment. It was arguably the assumption that the solution to the troubles at hand lay in overhauling previously open-ended livelihoods and trying to stabilise them.</p>
<p>In the end, both interventions came to be co-opted through their insertion into much more varied and flexible long-term strategies. The Turkana Rehabilitation Project became a pathway back into a dynamic, semi-nomadic form of pastoralism. After the NORAD scheme’s initial failure, the equipment and infrastructure it left behind were used by participating communities to advance a more adaptive, malleable fishing industry. Today, the great factory at Kalokol lies empty while bundles of dried fish are traded a stone’s throw from its closed gates to businessmen and entrepreneurs who travel to northern Kenya from far and wide.</p>
<p>These fish are not transported via a rigid, centrally organised system, nor do they undergo complex processing. They are brought straight to Kalokol, after they have been dried in the sun, from villages that continue to be constructed entirely of organic materials. The houses in these villages can be partly dismantled, abandoned and reconstructed at a moment’s notice, using local palms and woods.</p>
<p>Over the years, they are moved in and out following the lake shore as it fluctuates. If there is a slump in demand or constrictions on supply, the fishing communities suspend their commerce and make do by subsisting on the lake’s resources. This industry is not perfect, but it is strong, and it is strong because, like the world in which it operates, it is unpredictable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Traditional huts stand on the shore of a lake." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441267/original/file-20220118-19-1ka77bn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Merier, a fishing village on the western shore of Lake Turkana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Embracing volatility</h2>
<p>Fortunately, the sector has largely moved on from the kind of large-scale, technocratic, externally planned interventions that predominated in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, one cannot help but wonder whether development in Africa is still, broadly speaking, underpinned by a western preoccupation with battling uncertainty by means of stability; with establishing new forms of predictability that are ultimately doomed to failure. Perhaps it is time to question whether such a mindset is going to be the best way of supporting those making a living at the margins, as they face a future that promises more volatility than ever before.</p>
<p>Back in 2015, Emeri Lowasa explained to me that when the River Kerio’s flood cycle began to degenerate, seasonal farmers like her found themselves at a loose end. In the space of a few short years, they had gone from regularly exchanging their excess sorghum with friends and family members in the herding sector to being unable to plant their riverside plots altogether. This was a critical threat to their livelihood, but it was also nutritionally detrimental to the visiting herders, whose diets had been regularly supplemented by grains provided by the riverside communities. It was a moment of crisis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dry watercourse with shrub lining the shore." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441268/original/file-20220118-19-isq3n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Kerio River, dry, with invasive Mesquite growing along its bank.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The solution, Emeri said, was not to be found in doubling down and trying to make things work despite the circumstances. It lay in radically rethinking what the cultivating/herding relationship consisted of in the first place and transforming how it operated.</p>
<p>Her family and wider community took advantage of a gradually improving national infrastructure to begin importing grains from further afield. Many of them became tradespeople. Instead of their own crops, they sold sacks of maize, millet, beans and other foodstuffs to herders who capitalised on burgeoning riverside settlements to establish cash markets for their livestock. The farmers also made mats and baskets from the palm trees that grew along the river. Whatever they could not sell at the new markets, they sent off to the nearest urban centre where women’s groups sold them to customers travelling south into the rest of Kenya.</p>
<p>They embraced the very volatility that threatened catastrophe, gaining from the disorder by making something new with the remnants of what came before. Today, farmers along the Kerio still provide grain to herders out on the plains, even if this grain is no longer regularly grown in their riverside plots. Herders still distribute livestock into these riverside populations, these days via cash markets rather than seasonal exchanges. The relationship endures, indeed it grows stronger, because it has welcomed disorder in to reshape it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man crouches on the sand amongst some tools" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441271/original/file-20220118-15-1e46ktw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Loura Ekaale applying red ochre to the cowhide sheath of a circular wrist knife.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is this same extraordinary orientation towards uncertainty that allows people like Loura, and his family, to flourish in this demanding land, bouncing back time and again from conflict and drought and negotiating fundamental changes to the ecological conditions surrounding them. Each constraint must, somehow, be made into a new opportunity, each ending a new beginning.</p>
<p>The knowledge they draw on to do this is not an archaic reservoir of traditional practices and beliefs. It is a modern mindset: a collection of habits and intuitions established on the back of many generations of iterative change and adaptation. It is a particular way of reading things.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman and a child amongst the goats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441273/original/file-20220118-23-1foerz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nakiru, Loura’s wife, collecting milk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Samuel Derbyshire</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the years ahead, Turkana, like many other pastoralist regions across Africa, will no doubt face some of its most testing times. The support of international development programmes will remain critical. If new understandings of Africa’s drylands are allowed to shape the policies behind these programmes, their solutions will be more flexible and open-ended than ever before. New projects must engage with the variability of the environment, supporting adaptability, rather than seeking to enforce single path approaches.</p>
<p>But the help does not necessarily need to flow one way. Places like Turkana harbour valuable lessons for the world, and precious inspiration for anyone seeking to grow stronger through future volatility.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Derbyshire's research has been funded by the Wenner-Gren Foundation, the National Geographic Society, the Royal Geographical Society, the British Institute in Eastern Africa, the Endangered Material Knowledge Programme and the University of Oxford. </span></em></p>
Uncertainty must be embraced and harnessed for the better because stability never lasts long.
Samuel Derbyshire, Junior Research Fellow in Anthropology, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/175596
2022-02-15T13:23:45Z
2022-02-15T13:23:45Z
Trust comes when you admit what you don’t know – lessons from child development research
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446357/original/file-20220214-23-1v7o8t3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=283%2C55%2C4760%2C3163&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kids figure out who's trustworthy as they learn about the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/father-and-young-son-portrait-royalty-free-image/117456173">Sandro Di Carlo Darsa/PhotoAlto Agency RF Collections via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Consider the following situation: Two experts give you advice about whether you should eat or avoid the fat in common cooking oils.</p>
<p>One of them tells you confidently that there are “good” or “bad” fats, so you can eat some oils and not others. The other is more hesitant, saying the science is mixed and it depends on the individual and the situation, so probably just best to avoid them all until more evidence is available, or see your doctor to find out what is best for you.</p>
<p>Whose advice do you follow?</p>
<p>Neither one of these experts is factually incorrect. But the confident source likely has some additional appeal. Research suggests that people are more likely to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xge0000471">follow advice delivered with confidence</a> and to reject advice delivered with hesitancy or uncertainty.</p>
<p>During the pandemic, public health officials <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/pandemic-communications-public-health/622044/">have seemed to operate on this assumption</a> – that confidence conveys expertise, leadership and authority and is necessary to get people to trust you. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2020.1864892">public health recommendations about COVID-19</a> are complicated by the rapidly changing scientific understanding of the disease and its spread. Each time there’s new information, some of the old knowledge becomes obsolete and is replaced.</p>
<p>Over the course of the pandemic, Pew Research Center polling has found that the percentage of Americans who <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2022/02/09/increasing-public-criticism-confusion-over-covid-19-response-in-u-s/">feel confused and less confident</a> in public health officials’ recommendations because of changing guidelines has grown.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="masked man and woman stand with American flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446359/original/file-20220214-97814-189drvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the president, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky have needed to update advice as the pandemic continues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dr-anthony-fauci-director-of-the-national-institute-of-news-photo/1361356289">Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In a landscape of constantly changing science, is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1317504111">communicating with total confidence</a> the best way to win public trust? Maybe not. Our research suggests that, in many cases, people trust those who are willing to say “I don’t know.”</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TMuSMXoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DxmHk08AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychological</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ibmI_W0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scientists</a> who study the emergence, in childhood, of what is termed “epistemic trust” – which is trusting that someone is a knowledgeable and reliable source of information. Infants learn to trust their caregivers for other reasons – attachment bonds are formed based on love and consistent care. </p>
<p>But, from the time children are 3 or 4 years old, they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8624.00334">also begin to trust people</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034191">based on what they claim to know</a>. In other words, from early in life our minds separate the love-and-care kind of trust from <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674503830">the sort of trust you need</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8624.2005.00849.x">to get reliable, accurate information</a> that helps you learn about the world. These are the origins of adult trust in experts – and in science.</p>
<h2>Observing trust in the lab</h2>
<p>The setup of our lab studies with kids is similar to our starting example above: Kids meet people and learn facts from them. One person sounds confident and the other sounds uncertain. The children in our studies are still in preschool, so we use simple “lessons” appropriate to the age group, often involving teaching children new made-up vocabulary words. We’re able to vary things about the “teachers” and see how children respond differently.</p>
<p>For instance, in the lab we find that children’s brain activity and learning are responsive to differences in tone between confidence and uncertainty. If you teach a 4-year-old a new word with confidence, they will learn it in one shot. But if you say “hmm, I’m not sure, I think this is called a …,” something changes.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/desc.12544">Electrical activity in the brain shows</a> that children both remember the event and learn the word when someone teaches with confidence. When someone communicates uncertainty, they remember the event but don’t learn the word. </p>
<p>If a speaker says they are unsure, it can actually help a listener separate memory of a specific thing they heard from facts they think must be widely known.</p>
<h2>Effects of acknowledging uncertainty</h2>
<p>In addition to forming accurate impressions in your memory, communicated uncertainty also helps you learn about cases that are uncertain by their nature. Disease transmission is one of these cases.</p>
<p>Our research shows that even 5-year-old children learn about uncertain data better from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2021.105183">someone who expresses that uncertainty outright</a> than someone who is confident that things will always work the same way.</p>
<p>In this study, kids saw cause-and-effect relations – objects turned on a music machine. Some objects (black ones) always made it go, others (yellow ones) never made it go, and still others made it go sometimes. For instance, red objects were 66% effective, and white objects were 33% effective. </p>
<p>One group of kids heard a contrast between red and white objects communicated with too much certainty: “Red ones make it go and white ones do not.” Later, kids in this group were confused when they had to distinguish these uncertain causes from more certain black and yellow ones. </p>
<p>Another group of kids heard the contrast communicated with uncertainty: “Maybe the red ones sometimes make it go, and the white ones sometimes do not.” Kids in this group were not confused. They learned that these objects were effective only sometimes, and they could distinguish them from objects that were always or never effective.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="close-up of woman listening to young boy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446360/original/file-20220214-112758-fjid2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children become skeptical of adults who are mixed up but confident.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/little-boy-uses-sign-language-to-talk-to-a-woman-royalty-free-image/1318193583">Catherine Falls Commercial/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Overconfidence undermines trust</h2>
<p>The studies above show that appropriately communicated uncertainty can influence trust in the short term. But pandemic communication is complicated mainly because no one can predict what information will change in the future. What is better in the long term – admitting what you don’t know, or being confident about information that might change?</p>
<p>[<em>Research into coronavirus and other news from science</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-corona-research">Subscribe to The Conversation’s new science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In a recent study, we showed that over the long term, when you have a chance of being wrong, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000294">too much confidence carries risk</a>. One group of 4-year-olds saw an adult who admitted not knowing the names for common objects: a ball, a book, a cup. Another group saw an adult who claimed to know what the objects were called but got them all wrong – for example, calling a ball “a shoe.”</p>
<p>When the adult admitted ignorance, 4-year-olds were willing to keep learning all sorts of things from them, even more words. But when the adult was confident and inaccurate, she lost all credibility. Even when children knew she could help them find a hidden toy, they wouldn’t trust her to tell them where it was.</p>
<h2>Safeguarding trust by saying ‘I don’t know’</h2>
<p>The lesson from our research is that speaking with confidence about information that will likely change is a bigger threat to earning trust than expressing uncertainty. When health officials confidently enact a policy at one time, and then confidently enact a different, even contradictory, policy later on, they are acting like the “unreliable informants” in our studies. </p>
<p>Public health communication can have two goals. One is to get people to act fast and follow best practices based on what’s known now. A second is to gain the sustained, long-term trust of the public so that when fast action is needed, people have faith that they are doing the right thing by following guidelines. Rhetoric that is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2020.1864892">designed to convey certainty</a> in hopes of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/10755470211063628">earning widespread compliance</a> may be counterproductive if it risks mortgaging the long-term trust of the public.</p>
<p>While we recognize the difficulty of communicating in uncertain times, and doing so to an increasingly polarized public, we think it’s important to heed the lessons from the earliest psychology of trust. </p>
<p>The good news is that, based on our research, we believe the human mind doesn’t balk at hearing communicated uncertainty – quite the opposite. Our minds and brains are made to handle the occasional “I think so,” “I’m not sure” or “I don’t know.” In fact, our ability to do this emerges early in child development and is a cornerstone of our ability to learn from others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tamar Kushnir receives funding from NSF, NIH, John Templeton Foundation and the Dept. of Agriculture.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Sobel receives funding from NSF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Sabbagh receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. </span></em></p>
People often try to seem confident and certain in their message so it will be trusted and acted upon. But when information is in flux, research suggests you should be open about what you don’t know.
Tamar Kushnir, Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University
David Sobel, Professor of Cognitive, Linguistic & Psychological Sciences, Brown University
Mark Sabbagh, Professor of Psychology, Queen's University, Ontario
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/174009
2022-01-09T13:16:40Z
2022-01-09T13:16:40Z
How social media can crush your self-esteem
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439352/original/file-20220104-15-1n279an.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C994%2C567&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Using social media increases our natural tendency to compare ourselves. How does this affect our well-being?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all have a natural tendency to compare ourselves to others, whether intentionally or not, online or offline. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.76.1.129">Such comparisons help us evaluate our own achievements</a>, skills, personality and our emotions. This, in turn, influences how we see ourselves.</p>
<p>But what impact do these comparisons have on our well-being? It depends on how much comparing we do. </p>
<p>Comparing ourselves on social media to people who are worse off than we are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000204">makes us feel better</a>. Comparing ourselves to people who are doing better than us, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000204">makes us feel inferior or inadequate instead</a>. The social media platform we choose also affects our morale, as do crisis situations like the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>As a PhD student in psychology, I am studying incels — men who perceive the rejection of women as the cause of their involuntary celibacy. I believe that social comparison, which plays as much a role in these marginal groups as it does in the general population, affects our general well-being in the age of social media.</p>
<h2>An optimal level of comparison</h2>
<p>The degree of social comparison that individuals carry out is thought to affect the degree of motivation they have. According to a study by researchers at Ruhr University in Bochum, Germany, there is an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000204">optimal level of perceived difference between the self and others</a> that maximizes the effects of social comparison.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman sitting on a sofa, holding a cell phone in one hand and holding her head in distress with the other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439759/original/file-20220106-23-1fjgtki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When people compare themselves to others who appear to be better off, they feel inferior, disatisfied or inadequate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Specifically, if we see ourselves as vastly superior to others, we will not be motivated to improve because we already feel that we are in a good position. Yet, if we perceive ourselves as very inferior, we will not be motivated to improve since the goal seems too difficult to achieve.</p>
<p>In other words, the researchers note, beyond or below the optimal level of perceived difference between oneself and another, a person no longer makes any effort. By perceiving oneself as inferior, the individual will experience negative emotions, guilt and lowered pride and self-esteem.</p>
<h2>Unrealistic comparisons on social media</h2>
<p>Social comparisons therefore have consequences both for our behaviour and for our psychological well-being. However, comparing yourself to others at a restaurant dinner does not necessarily have the same effect as comparing yourself to others on Facebook. It is easier to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3313831.3376482">invent an exciting existence or embellish certain aspects of things on a social media platform than it is in real life</a>.</p>
<p>The advent of social media, which allows us to share content where we always appear in our best light, has led many researchers to consider the possibility that this amplifies unrealistic comparisons.</p>
<p>Research shows that the more time people spend on Facebook and Instagram, the more they compare themselves socially. This social comparison is linked, among other things, to lower self-esteem and higher social anxiety. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A cartoon of a smiling woman on a social media post, but unhappy in real life." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439760/original/file-20220106-25-1u9f04t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people share only positive moments in their lives on social media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A study conducted by researchers at the National University of Singapore <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305120912488">explains these results</a> by the fact that people generally present positive information about themselves on social media. They can also enhance their appearance by using filters, which create the impression that there is a big difference between themselves and others.</p>
<p>In turn, researchers working at Facebook observed that the more people looked at content where people were sharing positive aspects of their lives on the platform, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3313831.3376482">the more likely they were to compare themselves to others</a>.</p>
<h2>COVID-19: Less negative social comparison</h2>
<p>However, could the effect of this comparison in a particularly stressful context like the COVID-19 pandemic be different?</p>
<p>A study from researchers at Kore University in Enna, Italy, showed that before lockdowns, high levels of online social comparison were associated with greater distress, loneliness and a less satisfying life. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110486">But this was no longer the case during lockdowns</a>.</p>
<p>One reason for this would be that by comparing themselves to others during the lockdown, people felt they were sharing the same difficult experience. That reduced the negative impact of social comparisons. So, comparing oneself to others online during difficult times can be a positive force for improving relationships and sharing feelings of fear and uncertainty.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four female friends greeting each other on an online video call." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439761/original/file-20220106-19-19r7g0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The shared difficult experiences of COVID-19 lockdowns reduced the negative impacts of social comparisons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A different effect depending on the social media</h2>
<p>There are distinctions to be made depending on which social media platform a person is using. Researchers at the University of Lorraine, France, consider <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248384">that social media platforms should not be all lumped together</a>.</p>
<p>For example, the use of Facebook and Instagram is associated with lower well-being, while Twitter is associated with more positive emotions and higher life satisfaction. One possible explanation: Facebook and Instagram are known to be places for positive self-presentation, unlike Twitter, where it is more appropriate to share one’s real opinions and emotions.</p>
<p>Trying to get social support on social media during the COVID-19 pandemic may reactivate negative emotions instead of releasing them, depending on which social media platform a person is using.</p>
<p>Many things motivate us to compare ourselves socially. Whether we like it or not, social media exposes us to more of those motivations. Depending on the type of content that is being shared, whether it is positive or negative, we tend to refer to it when we are self-evaluating. Sharing content that makes us feel good about ourselves and garners praise from others is nice, but you have to consider the effect of these posts on others.</p>
<p>Yet overall, I believe that sharing your difficulties in words, pictures or videos can still have positive effects and bring psychological benefits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174009/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sabrina Laplante ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>
Comparing ourselves to people who are worse off than we are on social media should make us feel better. The opposite is true.
Sabrina Laplante, Candidate au doctorat en psychologie, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/174266
2022-01-05T13:47:17Z
2022-01-05T13:47:17Z
‘Don’t Look Up’: Hollywood’s primer on climate denial illustrates 5 myths that fuel rejection of science
<p>Every disaster movie seems to open with a scientist being ignored. <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357">“Don’t Look Up”</a> is no exception – in fact, people ignoring or flat out denying scientific evidence is the point.</p>
<p>Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence play astronomers who make a literally Earth-shattering discovery and then try to persuade the president to take action to save humanity. It’s a satire that explores how individuals, scientists, the media and politicians respond when faced with scientific facts that are uncomfortable, threatening and inconvenient.</p>
<p>The movie is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/12/dont-look-up-adam-mckay-netflix-movie/621104/">an allegory for climate change</a>, showing how those with the power to do something about global warming <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/michael-e-mann/the-new-climate-war/9781541758223/">willfully avoid</a> taking action and how those with vested interests can mislead the public. But it also reflects science denial more broadly, including what the world has been seeing with COVID-19.</p>
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<p>The most important difference between the film’s premise and humanity’s actual looming crisis is that while individuals may be powerless against a comet, everyone can act decisively to stop fueling climate change. </p>
<p>Knowing the myths that feed science denial can help. </p>
<p>As research psychologists and the authors of <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190944681.001.0001/oso-9780190944681">“Science Denial: Why It Happens and What to Do About It”</a>, we recognize these aspects of science denial all too well. </p>
<h2>Myth #1: We can’t act unless the science is 100% certain</h2>
<p>The first question President Orlean (Meryl Streep) asks the scientists after they explain that a comet is on a collision course with Earth is, “So how certain is this?” Learning that the certitude is 99.78%, the president’s chief of staff (Jonah Hill) responds with relief: “Oh great, so it’s not 100%!” Government scientist Teddy Oglethorpe (Rob Morgan) replies, “Scientists never like to say 100%.”</p>
<p>This reluctance to claim 100% certainty is a strength of science. Even when the evidence points clearly in one direction, scientists keep exploring to learn more. At the same time, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">they recognize overwhelming evidence</a> and act on it. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">evidence is overwhelming</a> that Earth’s climate is changing in dangerous ways because of human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, and it has been overwhelming for many years. </p>
<p>When politicians take a “let’s wait and see” attitude toward climate change (or “sit tight and assess,” as the movie puts it), suggesting they need more evidence before taking any action, it’s often a form of science denial.</p>
<h2>Myth #2: Disturbing realities as described by scientists are too difficult for the public to accept</h2>
<p>The title phrase, “Don’t Look Up,” portrays this psychological assumption and how some politicians conveniently use it as an excuse for inaction while promoting their own interests. </p>
<p>Anxiety is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263">growing and understandable psychological response</a> to climate change. Research shows there are strategies people can use to effectively cope with climate anxiety, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2012.02.004">becoming better informed and talking about the problem with others</a>. This gives individuals a way to manage anxiety while at the same time taking actions to lower the risks.</p>
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<p>A 2021 international study found that 80% of individuals are indeed willing to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/09/14/in-response-to-climate-change-citizens-in-advanced-economies-are-willing-to-alter-how-they-live-and-work/pg_2021-09-14_climate_0-01/">make changes in how they live and work</a> to help reduce the effects of climate change.</p>
<h2>Myth #3: Technology will save us, so we don’t have to act</h2>
<p>Often, individuals want to believe in an outcome they prefer, rather than confront reality known to be true, a response that psychologists call <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480">motivated reasoning</a>. </p>
<p>For example, belief that a single technological solution, such as <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">carbon capture</a>, will fix the climate crisis without the need for change in policies, lifestyles and practices may be more grounded in hope than reality. Technology can help reduce our impact on the climate; however, research suggests advances are <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200420125510.htm">unlikely to come quickly enough</a>.</p>
<p>Hoping for such solutions diverts attention from significant changes needed in the way we work, live and play, and is a form of science denial.</p>
<h2>Myth #4: The economy is more important than anything, including impending crises predicted by science</h2>
<p>Taking action to slow climate change will be expensive, but not acting has extraordinary costs – in lives lost as well as property. </p>
<p>Consider the costs of recent Western wildfires. Boulder County, Colorado, lost nearly 1,000 homes to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">fire on Dec. 30, 2021</a>, after a hot, dry summer and fall and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/12/31/colorado-fires-climate-weather-drought/">little recent rain or snow</a>. A study of California’s fires in 2018 – another hot, dry year – when the town of Paradise burned, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00646-7">estimated the damage</a>, including health costs and economic disruption, at about $148.5 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A runner passes the outlines of burned homes, with unburned houses behind them" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439417/original/file-20220104-19-tp2a2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nearly 1,000 homes burned in Boulder County, Colo., as strong winds whipped a grass fire through unusually dry landscape on Dec. 30, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-walks-by-burned-homes-in-the-coal-creek-ranch-news-photo/1362152925">Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>When people say we can’t take action because action is expensive, they are in denial of the cost of inaction.</p>
<h2>Myth #5: Our actions should always align with our social identity group</h2>
<p>In a politically polarized society, individuals may feel pressured to make decisions based on what their social group believes. In the case of beliefs about science, this can have dire consequences – as the world has seen with the COVID-19 pandemic. In the U.S. alone, more than <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days">825,000 people with COVID-19 have died</a> while powerful identity groups actively discourage people from getting vaccines or taking other precautions that could protect them.</p>
<p>Viruses are oblivious to political affiliation, and so is the changing climate. Rising global <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">temperatures</a>, worsening storms and sea level rise will affect everyone in harm’s way, regardless of the person’s social group.</p>
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<h2>How to combat science denial – and climate change</h2>
<p>A comet headed for Earth might leave little for individuals to do, but <a href="https://www.count-us-in.org/en-gb/16-steps/">this is not the case with climate change</a>. People can change their own practices to reduce carbon emissions and, importantly, pressure leaders in government, business and industry <a href="https://thesolutionsproject.org/project-drawdown-solutions-climate-change-sustainable-development/?gclid=CjwKCAiAzrWOBhBjEiwAq85QZ6WdGTMbcwFnZbKi18De_7FXZ77ZDzClaLJrDYGyhyYY-XGUa69_bBoCp3QQAvD_BwE">to take actions</a>, such as reducing fossil fuel use, converting to cleaner energy and changing agricultural practices to reduce emissions.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Science-Denial-Happens-What-About/dp/0190944684">book</a>, we discuss steps that individuals, educators, science communicators and policymakers can take to confront the science denial that prevents moving forward on this looming issue. For example:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Individuals can check their own motivations and beliefs about climate change and remain open minded to scientific evidence.</p></li>
<li><p>Educators can teach students how to source scientific information and evaluate it.</p></li>
<li><p>Science communicators can explain not just what scientists know but how they know it.</p></li>
<li><p>Policymakers can make decisions based on scientific evidence.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>As scholars who work to help people make sound decisions about complex problems, we encourage people to consume news and science information from sources outside their own identity group. Break out of your social bubble and listen to and talk with others. Look up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gale Sinatra has received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada, and Mattel Children's Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara K. Hofer has received research funding from the National Science Foundation and Vermont EPSCOR.</span></em></p>
Just because something isn’t 100% certain doesn’t mean you ignore it, and other lessons from two researchers who study the problem of science denial.
Gale Sinatra, Professor of Education and Psychology, University of Southern California
Barbara K. Hofer, Professor of Psychology Emerita, Middlebury
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172847
2021-11-30T19:12:37Z
2021-11-30T19:12:37Z
Not again … how to protect your mental health in the face of uncertainty and another COVID variant
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434598/original/file-20211130-24-1rpxf23.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=69%2C31%2C5098%2C3406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1508440767412-59ce0b206bbc?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&ixid=MnwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHx8&auto=format&fit=crop&w=2070&q=80">Unsplash/Niklas Hamann</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reports about the latest COVID variant of concern, Omicron, have exploded all over the news. No sooner had we learned its name, it had arrived in Australia. </p>
<p>Waves of familiar dread are washing ashore for many, just when there was fresh hope we would soon put all this behind us. Will there be masks and lockdowns again? Will we need booster shots? What about border closures? </p>
<p>Some will be worrying about getting refunds for their interstate Christmas holiday trips. Many others may be grappling with a sense of déjà vu and hopelessness – wondering how they will get their life and mental health back on track, again.</p>
<p>In August, calls to the 24-hour crisis support service <a href="https://www.lifeline.org.au/131114/">Lifeline Australia</a> peaked at <a href="https://www.lifeline.org.au/resources/news-and-media-releases/media-releases/">3,505 calls per day</a> – the hightest number of daily number of calls in its 57-year history. Since the start of this year, 694,400 distressed Australians have called Lifeline for help, often for issues relating to economic hardship, relationship breakdowns, loneliness, and self harm. The call numbers in September stayed just as high, and were 30% higher than the same time last year. </p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://mentalhealththinktank.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/AustraliasMentalHealthThinkTank-EvidenceSummary-COVID-MentalHealth.pdf">report</a> from Australia’s Mental Health Think Tank shows COVID has compounded emotional, social and financial pressure for already vulnerable groups, including children and young people, Aboriginal communities, women, health care workers, those who are in insecure jobs or unemployed, and those with existing mental or physical illnesses.</p>
<p>As we continue to live in uncertain times, there are things we can do to boost our mental immune system to help us stay as resilient as we can, for whatever 2022 may bring.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/delayed-graduations-no-formals-the-class-of-2021-has-had-a-hell-of-a-year-they-need-mental-health-support-and-quickly-167187">Delayed graduations, no formals — the class of 2021 has had a hell of a year. They need mental health support, and quickly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>1. Focus on nutritious brain food</h2>
<p>Pay attention to what information your brain has consumed today – has it been fed a diet of <a href="https://www.insidescience.org/news/science-doomscrolling">doomscrolling</a> and bad news about things largely outside our control?</p>
<p>Uncertainty makes us feel anxious and fearful, which leads us to pay more attention to negative information in our environment, interpret ambiguous situations as threatening, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0005796790901323">worry</a> about how things could go wrong. Our mood shapes what comes to mind, and what comes to mind also influences how we feel. So when we feel bad, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0077554">negative things come to mind easily</a>, which makes us feel bad – forming a negative loop. </p>
<p>On top of this, if our brains are flooded with negative pictures and information from news and social media, then when we think of our future, our minds will easily be filled with compelling yet distorted negative images and thoughts. This can fuel a negative cycle of anxiety and despair, making us feel hopeless and helpless.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="hands with flower" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434640/original/file-20211130-19-xbx9rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Being present.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1505455184862-554165e5f6ba?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&ixid=MnwxMjA3fDB8MHxzZWFyY2h8NXx8bWluZGZ1bG5lc3N8ZW58MHx8MHx8&auto=format&fit=crop&w=800&q=60">Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>My own research asked people to track how often their mind wandered during a computer task, what they were imagining and feeling. We found people who were less likely to imagine positive aspects of the future when <a href="https://www.uwa.edu.au/news/article/2021/march/optimism-linked-to-mind-wandering">mind wandering</a> were also less optimistic about the future, which was in turn linked to low moods, sadness and anxiety.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shifting-sands-of-covid-and-our-uncertain-future-has-a-name-liminality-166903">The shifting sands of COVID and our uncertain future has a name -- liminality</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. A daily dose of rewarding activities</h2>
<p>When we feel out of control, it can be hard to muster the energy to do things that are pleasurable or that are hard work but ultimately make us feel proud of ourselves. Yet we know this is precisely the time we must keep doing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005791610000984?casa_token=VKImLoalJ4kAAAAA:ar0EXweq2B-vnn872bnaXe5PbIIQ5D1ujagqW8uFf9OtVm32uzJvfqDqBpbSCvg7an2Db2eKDUFt">rewarding activities</a>.</p>
<p>Whether it’s cooking, working in the garage, going for a jog, or listening to music, doing things we find rewarding and that absorb our attention can boost our positive emotions, recharge our energy, and even <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2850.2009.01178.x">treat depression</a>.</p>
<p>If motivation is lagging, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005796721001467?casa_token=vmeZBFr3racAAAAA:f4_zzoumRLOhPC57Q91YuuE9c5QUYfbnsthC67uEZajYgwTzL6nyUkMerE3aBCtK1HyFfvclXB0b">evidence shows</a> imagining ourselves engaged in activities we want to do more of, but keep putting off, can make it more likely we’ll will do them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="outside walk near beach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434642/original/file-20211130-15-4pylob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Walking in nature.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1608269811461-f917c6527f07?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&ixid=MnwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHx8&auto=format&fit=crop&w=1548&q=80">Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>3. Connecting with and helping others, helps us</h2>
<p>Humans are social animals who need to feel connected to others. Preliminary findings from a <a href="https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/social-activity-promotes-resilience-against-loneliness-in-depress">survey study</a> we conducted during lockdown last year found those who maintained frequent social interaction with people they felt close to experienced lower levels of loneliness. This was particularly true for those already experiencing elevated depression symptoms.</p>
<p>Helping others greatly <a href="https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/volunteering-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-what-are-the-potential-benefits-to-peoples-well-being/">benefits</a> our own mental and physical well-being and builds a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2167702615611073?casa_token=wDE9MQNW4FUAAAAA%3AAh00_F1Mew4jEtEIsvAvBxV9EOMdTkgyw1M9I-WdDqt228422bjFbPPohD5mr_sloyUJ8p4eYTooM_A">buffer against negative stress</a>. </p>
<p>We can help others or give them the gift of helping us because it’ll likely make them feel better too.</p>
<h2>4. Build a mental toolkit</h2>
<p>The right time to boost mental resilience is now – but it can be hard to navigate all the information available. Look for information that’s <a href="https://bestpractice.bmj.com/info/toolkit/discuss-ebm/what-does-evidence-based-actually-mean/">evidence-based</a> and resources that have been checked by experts. The <a href="https://www.headtohealth.gov.au/">Head to Health</a> site is a good place to start.</p>
<p>COVID has seen a rise in <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frvir.2020.576421/full">telehealth and online counselling</a>. If you think counselling or therapy might be useful, you could try an evidence-based cognitive-behavioural therapy course online, such as <a href="https://thiswayup.org.au/">This Way Up</a>.</p>
<p>Orygen’s <a href="https://www.orygen.org.au/Clinical-Care/Clinical-services/Moderated-Online-Social-Therapy/Say-hello-to-MOST">Moderated Online Social Therapy</a> for 15–25 year olds aims to support young people while they’re waiting for face-to-face care. It is available in Victoria and will soon be available in Queensland. The Black Dog Institute provides evidence-based <a href="https://www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/research-areas/digital-mental-health/">digital mental health</a> tools and resources.</p>
<h2>Hang in there</h2>
<p>Living through a pandemic is testing our resilience and challenging our coping abilities in ways they’ve never been challenged before. But new tools, <a href="https://www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Tips-to-manage-anxiety-during-times-of-uncertainty-for-health-professionals.pdf">expert advice</a> and support is available. </p>
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<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Ji receives funding from the Forrest Research Foundation, the Raine Medical Foundation, and the WA Department of Health. </span></em></p>
Just when things seemed to be getting back to COVID normal, a new variant has us worried all over again. But we can be kind to our brains and boost well-being in uncertain times.
Julie Ji, Postdoctoral research fellow, School of Psychological Science, The University of Western Australia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172525
2021-11-30T10:09:21Z
2021-11-30T10:09:21Z
How uncertainty can impair our ability to make rational decisions – new research
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434446/original/file-20211129-25-1uzycqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=368%2C44%2C4551%2C3179&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When times are uncertain, we can fail to be flexible.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-nose-ring-pink-sticky-124672096">jefftakespics2/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We make decisions every day, many of which are so straightforward that we hardly notice we are making them. But we tend to struggle when faced with decisions that have uncertain outcomes, such as during the pandemic. Cognitive scientists have long been interested in understanding how people make such uncertain decisions. Now our <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2786681">new research</a>, published in the journal JAMA Network Open, gives a clue.</p>
<p>Scientists typically test decision-making under uncertainty using “probabilistic tasks”, in which study participants can choose from two or more options, each with a specific probability of providing a reward (usually points or money). This could be a game, for example, in which you have to choose between a picture of an apple or a banana on a computer screen. The apple might be programmed to give you points 80% of the time while the banana will do so 20% of the time, but during the game the probabilities can change. You would not be aware of the probabilities at any given time, however – leading to uncertainty. Your task would be to find out which option is more rewarding.</p>
<p>Humans generally use two decision-making strategies when faced with uncertainty: exploitation and exploration. Exploitation involves frequently choosing options that are familiar and provide a higher certainty of reward. Exploration involves trying out choices that are unfamiliar. In an uncertain and changing environment, it is thought that the best strategy is to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/npp2017108">flexibly alternate</a> between exploration and exploitation. </p>
<p>Whether people explore or exploit depends on the situation at hand. When under <a href="https://europepmc.org/article/ppr/ppr376314">time pressure</a>, people are more likely to repeat old choices and explore less. </p>
<h2>Obsessive-compulsive disorder</h2>
<p>A common symptom of many psychiatric disorders is difficulty in coping with uncertainty. People suffering from obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), in particular, feel incredibly uncertain about their thoughts, feelings and actions, and may feel anxious. They may feel doubtful over whether they counted the number of tiles accurately, or whether they scrubbed their hands thoroughly enough.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2786681">study</a>, we demonstrate that people with OCD struggle to make decisions when they are uncertain. We asked 50 teenagers with OCD and 53 teenagers without OCD to complete a probabilistic task, in which the probabilities associated with each option would reverse halfway through the task (for example the apple picture would go from giving a reward 80% of the time to 20% of the time). The ideal strategy would be to exploit the more rewarding choice early on (apple), but then engage in exploration (pick banana) once you’ve noticed a shift in how often points are offered.</p>
<p>Teenagers with OCD did not do this, however. Across the task, they displayed a great deal of exploration of choices. They showed a tendency to switch choices and select the less rewarding choice more often than teenagers without OCD. Fascinatingly, when teenagers with OCD performed another task which was not probabilistic and didn’t trigger uncertainty, they showed no problems with decision-making. </p>
<p>Uncertainty caused by the probabilistic task may have caused teenagers with OCD to doubt their decisions and feel the need to “check” the less rewarding choice frequently. This exploration could be a strategy for them to try to <a href="https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005440">seek out information</a> until they feel certain. Intolerance of uncertainty is a plausible reason for why people with OCD feel compelled to check items like locks, stoves and switches in daily life. </p>
<p>The results also suggest that many people may start to explore in this way if they are <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-019-01653-2">feeling uncertain enough</a>. </p>
<h2>Pandemic uncertainty</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a great deal of uncertainty for everyone, which in turn seems to have increased our tendency for exploration in the form of information-seeking. A <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1075547020959818">study has shown</a> that perceived uncertainty has led to people seeking more information about COVID via social networking apps and online news media. </p>
<p>On the one hand, this has led to more <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/cyber.2020.0250">preventative actions</a>, such as increased hand washing and mask wearing, which can reduce uncertainty and keep people safe. On the other hand, this information-seeking may not be entirely beneficial. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41398-021-01410-x">recent study</a> has shown that since the onset of the pandemic, otherwise healthy people are reporting more obsessive-compulsive symptoms, such as constantly checking for new information to reduce feelings of pandemic-induced uncertainty.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of an MRI brain scan." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434398/original/file-20211129-21-11ww55u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stress from exploration can change the brain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brain-scan-273127421">Semnic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Excessive information-seeking during this period can lead to high levels of stress. We know from previous research that it can eventually lead to burnout and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030645732030933X">avoidance of information</a> altogether, leaving people less informed about government guidelines, safety measures and COVID-19 treatment advances. </p>
<p>Persistent stress from overexposure to distressing news may also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-chronic-stress-changes-the-brain-and-what-you-can-do-to-reverse-the-damage-133194">cause changes</a> in key brain areas such as the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and hippocampus, which are responsible for memory and cognition. This can in turn result in reduced rational decision-making, leading us to rely more on emotions. This could make us susceptible to believing misinformation and engaging in irrational behaviours, such as hoarding toilet paper.</p>
<p>Luckily, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/learning-to-cope-with-uncertainty-during-covid-19-151420">ways to combat</a> pandemic uncertainty by trusting some of the information you’ve already gathered and that seems consistent over time, such as the benefits of masks and vaccines. If you are finding it difficult to cope without frequently checking the news and social media for reassurance, <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/doomscrolling-during-covid-19-how-you-can-avoid-it#Staying-informed-without-the-doom">experts recommend</a> setting a timer on social media use, logging out of accounts temporarily, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/doomscrolling-covid-news-takes-an-emotional-toll-heres-how-to-make-your-social-media-a-happier-place-170342">seeking out</a> more positive, non-pandemic related content online. </p>
<p>There are even evidence-based methods to improving your decision-making under uncertainty, including playing games designed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-pandemic-is-changing-our-brains-here-are-the-remedies-144451">train your brain</a>, getting <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-ways-to-reboot-your-brain-after-a-hard-year-of-covid-19-according-to-science-151332">good sleep and nutrition</a>, and having social support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Jacquelyn Sahakian consults for Cambridge Cognition. Dr Sahakian’s research is funded by the Wellcome Trust, the Lundbeck Foundation and the Leverhulme Trust and is conducted within the NIHR MedTech and in vitro diagnostic Cooperative (MIC) and the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) Mental Health and Neurodegeneration Themes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aleya Aziz Marzuki received funding as a research assistant and PhD student from a Wellcome Trust Grant awarded to Professor Trevor Robbins (104631/Z/14/Z/) and was the recipient of a grant from the G C Grindley Fund. </span></em></p>
High levels of uncertainty can make us obsessive compulsive, causing physical changes in the brain.
Barbara Jacquelyn Sahakian, Professor of Clinical Neuropsychology, University of Cambridge
Aleya Aziz Marzuki, PhD Candidate in Cognitive Neuroscience, University of Cambridge
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/166903
2021-09-15T03:28:38Z
2021-09-15T03:28:38Z
The shifting sands of COVID and our uncertain future has a name – liminality
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421236/original/file-20210915-23-7v8a9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C1000%2C416&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/multiple-closed-doors-desert-one-open-1685188615">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the pandemic, lots of us, myself included, are struggling to live in the “now”. That “now”, with all its uncertainty, doesn’t look like the life we used to live or the life we imagine we will return to.</p>
<p>That experience has a name — liminality. </p>
<p>Understanding liminality and its origins can provide ways to better understand the foggy, ambiguous space we currently inhabit.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-doom-and-gloom-even-in-a-pandemic-mixed-emotions-are-more-common-than-negative-ones-138014">Not all doom and gloom: even in a pandemic, mixed emotions are more common than negative ones</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is liminality?</h2>
<p>European anthropologist Arnold van Gennep <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283237814_The_Base_Articulations_of_the_Liminality_Concept">pioneered</a> the study of liminality in the early 20th century. His work on liminal spaces focused on the rites of passage we transition through in life. </p>
<p>Since then, the term liminality has been used to describe the paths we navigate when faced with life events. These are the times when we are in a metaphorical waiting room between one life stage and another.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1396957944701407235"}"></div></p>
<p>I’ve <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/inm.12909">been studying</a> liminality throughout my career working with families of missing people.</p>
<p>These families, waiting for missing people to come home, can also experience a sense of liminality. They can be stuck between certainty and uncertainty about knowing what happened to their loved ones and learning to live without answers.</p>
<p>What families of missing people taught me is what helps us survive uncertainty is reflecting on our own capacity to tolerate “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340285925_'An_all-consuming_cumulonimbus_of_pain'_a_scoping_review_exploring_the_impact_of_ambiguous_loss_when_someone_is_missing_and_the_counselling_interventions_relevant_to_the_experience">not knowing</a>”.</p>
<p>An everyday example might be sitting an exam and waiting for the outcome. You might be unable to plan ahead, and are balancing thoughts of passing or failing, all at the same time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/languishing-burnout-and-stigma-are-all-among-the-possible-psychological-impacts-as-delta-lingers-in-the-community-167103">Languishing, burnout and stigma are all among the possible psychological impacts as Delta lingers in the community</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s this to do with COVID?</h2>
<p>During COVID, how we believe our lives “should” work ceases to exist. And we’re left with uncertainty.</p>
<p>We ask ourselves, others or Google “how long will the pandemic last?”, “when will lockdown end” or “when can we safely travel?”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1400971596961964034"}"></div></p>
<p>Liminality shows up in other ways, with the:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7375263/">lost life-stage rituals</a> such as the sudden end of the school year, but without the formals or graduation ceremonies</p></li>
<li><p>newfound uncertainty about daily tasks we once took for granted. “I just need to pop to the shops” is now an exercise in decisions and questions about masks, social distancing and what’s essential</p></li>
<li><p>grandparents who haven’t cuddled their first grandchild and made that transition to a new stage of their life. They may live between saying “well at least we are healthy” while quietly lamenting those missed opportunities.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/learning-to-cope-with-uncertainty-during-covid-19-151420">Learning to cope with uncertainty during COVID-19</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>There are real health impacts</h2>
<p>The space between the life we had and the life we potentially will be able to live <a href="https://theconversation.com/learning-to-cope-with-uncertainty-during-covid-19-151420">can cause us distress</a>. And no amount of Zoom trivia, Uber Eats delivery or walking around the block can satisfy us.</p>
<p>Liminality during COVID has also impacting our health and well-being in other ways.</p>
<p>People with <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s40337-020-00306-3.pdf">eating disorders</a> have noted an increase in behaviours, as a coping tool, when faced with uncertainty. Diabetes educators have noted increased isolation and disconnection from usual routines <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168822720305957?casa_token=-5srxXDJ85QAAAAA:rsG_56ZGXhMxvQyvZOQoep28CO_x-WdE3_N4LA-kM-5X2MtGs6Wox9b_lqhb1uEH0C37fjga0Q">can impact</a> how diabetes is managed.</p>
<p>But the liminal space can also provide <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mohamed-Buheji/publication/343655515_Living_Uncertainty_in_the_New_Normal/links/5f3696a9299bf13404c1d8d9/Living-Uncertainty-in-the-New-Normal.pdf">breathing room</a> to learn to live with uncertainty and overcome what scares us.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-ok-if-you-have-a-little-cry-in-lockdown-youre-grieving-165329">It's OK if you have a little cry in lockdown. You're grieving</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How to cope with uncertainty</h2>
<p>To manage uncertainty, individually and collectively, we need to reflect on how we receive information. </p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/her/article/36/2/178/6120242?login=true">A US study</a> found one place we go to for information, for certainty in a pandemic, is science. However, given science changes as research progresses, public health messaging can also change. So this repetitive looking for certainty, in an uncertain world, makes it difficult to learn to live with COVID. </p>
<p>We know long periods of uncertainty <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6221042/#hec3795-bib-0026">can have impacts</a> on our capacity to cope. Without the strong foundation of certainty or “knowns” in our life, the reshaping of the world, from the pandemic, can and will be unsettling.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/life-is-full-of-uncertainty-weve-just-got-to-learn-to-live-with-it-30092">Life is full of uncertainty, we've just got to learn to live with it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young woman wearing mask scrolling smartphone sitting outside" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421237/original/file-20210915-21-1hd7wt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Do we really need to stay up-to-date with the latest twists and turns of the news cycle?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-young-woman-medical-mask-sitting-2037070865">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I’m not suggesting abandoning science, far from it. But those not at the forefront of designing vaccines, studying epidemiological trends or treating COVID patients might like to rethink our relationship with certainty. </p>
<p>Learning to “go with” all the twists and turns that come with rapidly changing science and the resultant uncertainty is what we need. We might enhance our lives by accepting liminality in how we navigate each day, to learn to tolerate ambiguity.</p>
<p>It is not simple to accept the unknown. However in this pandemic, learning to accept public health advice (and the science that underpins it) might change is part of living through a worldwide event. </p>
<p>Not knowing what next week will look like and finding ways to “tolerate ambiguity” is where we’re at right now. We can help ourselves by finding daily routines within our control, small moments of the day where we connect with a person, nature, or an activity that reminds us where we are and who we are.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-tiny-moments-of-pleasure-really-can-help-us-through-this-stressful-time-134043">Coronavirus: tiny moments of pleasure really can help us through this stressful time</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also need space to safely grieve the small and big losses COVID has created. We need to accept that, globally, we are in the liminal space between here and there. </p>
<p>Hopefully, “there” is when life returns to somewhat normal and when popping down to the shops means just that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Wayland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Understanding liminality and its origins can provide ways to better understand the foggy, ambiguous space we’re experiencing right now.
Sarah Wayland, Senior Lecturer Social Work, University of New England
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/159178
2021-04-19T19:31:41Z
2021-04-19T19:31:41Z
With COVID-19’s third wave, we’re far from ‘all in this together’
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395820/original/file-20210419-13-1hquug5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=261%2C0%2C1336%2C898&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford posted a photo of himself making cheesecake on Twitter on May 14, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/fordnation/status/1260362256547799041/photo/1">Doug Ford/Twitter</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One year ago, politicians across Canada told us “we’re all in this together.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford delivered the message during a video as he made <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-premier-doug-ford-reveals-his-famous-cherry-cheesecake-recipe-1.4940779">cherry cheesecake</a>. And Canadians bought into it. </p>
<p>They organized online to get <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-caremongering-1.5518092">groceries to seniors</a>, to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6944534/edmonton-support-local-twitter-canada-coronavirus/">#SupportLocal</a> and to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6721361/coronavirus-applause-health-care-workers-vancouver/">clap for carers</a> — examples of the made-in-Canada <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51915723">“caremongering” movement</a> were talked about globally.</p>
<p>Now, after a year of repeated lockdowns and a confusing vaccine rollout, people across the country are online and organizing <a href="https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-region/2021/04/10/defying-provincial-stay-at-home-orders-anti-lockdown-protesters-march-through-st-catharines.html">anti-lockdown marches</a>, <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/hundreds-defy-montreal-s-8-p-m-curfew-breaking-windows-in-city-s-tourist-area-1.5383480">anti-curfew protests and riots</a> and disseminating <a href="https://nowtoronto.com/news/covid-and-vaccine-conspiracies-on-the-rise-in-ontario">anti-vaccine conspiracies</a>. Some Canadians are angry and defiant.</p>
<h2>Short-lived solidarity</h2>
<p>While some thought the pandemic would level the playing field and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-time-of-panic-buying-could-yet-bring-us-together-133753">bring communities together</a>, scholars who study community recovery after crises were aware that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2020/caremongering-and-the-risk-of-happy-washing-during-a-pandemic/caremongering-and-the-risk-of-happy-washing-during-a-pandemic-3/">solidarity would be short-lived</a>. To make matters worse, scholars have observed that social inequality and <a href="http://cf.linnbenton.edu/artcom/social_science/clarkd/upload/The%20Politics%20of%20Social%20Cleavages.pdf">social divisions</a> often re-emerge after a crisis and can sometimes become even stronger. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-time-of-panic-buying-could-yet-bring-us-together-133753">How a time of panic buying could yet bring us together</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In Ontario, the inequality that lower-income and racialized communities face has worsened amid COVID-19. </p>
<p>As the third wave hits hot-spot communities, people affected are less protected and prioritized now, and <a href="https://www.ohscanada.com/pandemics-third-wave-hits-people-20s-30s-illness-blame/">hit harder</a> than when the pandemic started. Many are blaming the Ontario government’s poor public health policies for what doctors are calling a preventable “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/18/ontario-covid-crisis-this-was-entirely-preventable">humanitarian catastrophe</a>.”</p>
<p>What we are witnessing in Ontario is <a href="https://journal.culanth.org/index.php/ca/catalog/category/precarity">politically produced precarity</a>. Politically produced precarity is when political discourse and public policies create an environment that makes people experience precarity (or uncertainty). This can be seen through essential workplaces being allowed to stay open during Ontario’s state of emergency, but neglecting essential workers when it comes to prioritizing them for vaccinations. These workers are made precarious by the policies in place, not due to the lack of vaccines.</p>
<p>Data <a href="https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data">on the Ontario government’s website</a> shows that workplaces account for 29 per cent of all COVID-19 outbreaks. This is only second to education, which accounts for 34 per cent of outbreaks. </p>
<p>While the Ontario government has followed the evidence in this third wave and shut down schools, workplaces that include factories, food-processing plants and farms are still open and essential workers are still not being prioritized for vaccinations. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing infection rates in various settings in Ontario" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395857/original/file-20210419-15-12e37q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graph showing the number of COVID-19 outbreaks by setting in Ontario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/likely-source-infection">(Government of Ontario)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Their work is essential, but not their lives</h2>
<p>Dr. Shail Rawal, an internal medicine physician, tweeted on April 16, capturing the current situation in Ontario well when she said: “They looked us in the eye and said your labour is essential, but your lives are not.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1383225377623994369"}"></div></p>
<p>In addition to not being prioritized for vaccinations, despite having no option but to go into work, essential workers still don’t have paid sick leave. Since the beginning of the pandemic, <a href="https://www.oma.org/newsroom/news/2020/dec/ontarios-doctors-call-for-paid-sick-days/">doctors and</a> <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/local-medical-officers-of-health-across-ontario-ask-ford-government-to-reinstate-paid-sick-leave-1.5304683">local medical officers of health</a> across Ontario have called for paid sick leave. This call has only grown stronger during the third wave. </p>
<p>Ford <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/7744244/ontario-premier-ford-defends-decision-to-not-implement-paid-sick-days">continues to push back</a>, saying there is already a federal program in place. But advocates say the federal COVID-19 sick leave benefit has restrictions that make it inaccessible to lower-income, precarious and migrant workers. </p>
<p>A recent poll found the <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/new-poll-shows-vast-majority-of-ontarians-in-favour-of-legislated-paid-sick-days-840560429.html">vast majority of Ontario residents are in favour of paid sick days</a>. Yet, despite so much support, essential workers are still forced to go to work even if they feel sick, risking the spread of COVID-19. </p>
<p>Torontonian Andrew Do shared on Twitter and in the media how <a href="https://twitter.com/ADoAboutThings/status/1381325371606495240?s=20">both his parents got COVID-19</a> days before their vaccine appointments. Do’s father works in a factory where he believes he got infected, and his parents live at Jane and Finch, a lower-income neighbourhood located in Toronto’s northwest. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/04/11/a-tale-of-two-neighbourhoods-jane-and-finch-with-the-lowest-vaccination-rate-moore-park-with-the-highest.html">Do explains</a>, he thinks his parents’ vulnerability increased during the pandemic because of how the neighbourhood is treated by governments and the health-care system. </p>
<p>Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, a researcher who studies politically produced precarity, explains how we need to understand the vulnerabilities that people are facing and their responses. She says we can do this by considering how <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1525/jps.2020.49.4.27">local experiences and responses are framed by political systems</a> and the structural inequalities and processes of marginalization and exclusion that have gotten us here.</p>
<p>It is these structures and policies that leave essential workers exposed to COVID-19 and at risk of dying due to lack of vaccine access. </p>
<h2>The wealthier the neighbourhood, the more vaccines</h2>
<p>The inequality in vaccine access is summed up by a recent article in the <em>Toronto Star</em>: “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/04/11/a-tale-of-two-neighbourhoods-jane-and-finch-with-the-lowest-vaccination-rate-moore-park-with-the-highest.html">A tale of two neighbourhoods: Jane and Finch with the lowest vaccination rate, Moore Park with the highest</a>.” The story highlights how one of the poorest neighbourhoods in Toronto has the lowest vaccination rate, and one of the richest neighbourhoods has the highest.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-covid-19-vaccines-1.5978107">An analysis</a> from the <a href="https://www.ices.on.ca/">Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences</a> showed that COVID-19 is disproportionately affecting Toronto neighbourhoods with the most essential workers and lowest income levels. Similarly, pharmacies that administer vaccines are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-hotspots-in-toronto-underserved-pharmacy-pilot-1.5957362">primarily located in Toronto’s most affluent neighbourhoods</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, an investigation into how hot-spot postal codes were selected by the Ford government has revealed that vaccine rollout may have been <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ndp-andrea-horwath-letter-auditor-general-bonnie-lysyk-vaccine-rollout-political-1.5986501">driven by partisan considerations</a>. Five of the included zones — all represented by Progressive Conservative MPPs — had infection rates that were below the provincial average while seven excluded zones had higher-than-average infection rates but are represented by opposition politicians.</p>
<p>This news, combined with stories of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-april-18-1.5992330">young front-line workers begging pharmacists for vaccines</a> while vaccines sit in freezers at risk of expiration, have enraged many Ontarians. Some have started to count the days until the next provincial election while others have called for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/18/ontario-covid-lockdown-doug-ford-canada/">Ford’s resignation</a>.</p>
<h2>Ending politically produced precarity?</h2>
<p>Ending these injustices, and politically produced precarity, may be difficult without increased representation in politics of people from lower-income and racialized communities. As one Twitter user pointed out: “It is impossible to govern effectively if you don’t think or care about people who don’t live exactly as you do.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1383048987066966018"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/61192/ontario-strengthens-enforcement-of-stay-at-home-order">The recent Ontario announcement</a> that included giving more power to police to enforce stay-at-home orders, and the subsequent public backlash, highlights why representation matters. It showed how out of touch the government of Ontario is because <a href="https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/68227/1/Owusu-Bempah_Akwasi_201411_PhD_thesis.pdf">carding has long been condemned due to its connections to racial profiling</a>. </p>
<p>It was a glaring misstep to fail to realize more enforcement was going to greatly impact racialized and low-income communities who are already hardest hit by COVID-19 and the least likely to be vaccinated. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-police-random-spot-checks-1.5991872">Despite scaling back police powers</a> so only those who are suspect of participating in gatherings will be stopped, too much power still remains in the hands of people who shouldn’t have it. And the rules are changing so rapidly that essential workers likely can’t keep up and will live under a cloud of fear every time they leave the house.</p>
<p>The third wave has been confusing, and as we look towards our post-pandemic recovery, we will not be able to <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2020/caremongering-and-the-risk-of-happy-washing-during-a-pandemic/caremongering-and-the-risk-of-happy-washing-during-a-pandemic-3/">happy-wash</a> the pandemic with caremongering stories. </p>
<p>Instead we must never forget how inequality has worsened, and recovery has been slowed or made worse by policy, so we can hold governments accountable when the next elections come around. </p>
<p>COVID-19 has shown us that we are <em>not</em> all in this together, and it has also shown us that as communities, we have the power to come together and advocate for the most vulnerable when politicians are actively putting them in harm’s way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yvonne Su does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
COVID-19 has shown us that we are not “all in this together” despite what politicians may want us to think.
Yvonne Su, Assistant Professor in Interdisciplinary Refugee and Diaspora Studies, York University, Canada
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153806
2021-02-01T12:26:25Z
2021-02-01T12:26:25Z
Happiness: why learning, not rewards, may be the key – new research
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381659/original/file-20210201-19-1w0ahej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C132%2C5546%2C3677&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Learning is rewarding.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-female-student-study-school-library-701467699">BalanceFormCreative/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Our obsession with happiness isn’t as modern as it may seem. Philosophers from Aristotle to <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bentham/">Jeremy Bentham</a> have all argued that subjective wellbeing is crucial. Bentham even <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bentham/">suggested that</a> “it is the greatest happiness of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong”. This approach informs the policies of many nations <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/327/5965/576">who deploy population measures of wellbeing</a>. </p>
<p>But the goal of increasing societal happiness has proved difficult to achieve. This is in part because it is difficult to determine what factors are most relevant for happiness. For example, many people believe they would be happier if only they had more money, but events such as winning the lottery or receiving a large pay raise often only <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill">have temporary effects on happiness</a>. Instead, our recent study, <a href="https://elifesciences.org/articles/57977">published in eLife</a>, suggests that learning may play a more significant and enduring role.</p>
<p>Another recent study suggests that the main factor driving happiness when it comes to rewards is not actually the rewards themselves but instead <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/111/33/12252">how well a reward matches up with expectations</a>. Receiving a pay raise will make you feel happier only if it was bigger than what you had been expecting. This difference between an expected and an actual reward is referred to as a reward prediction error.</p>
<p>Reward prediction errors <a href="https://www.jneurosci.org/content/30/40/13525.short">play a key role in learning</a>. That’s because they motivate people to repeat behaviours that led to unexpectedly large rewards. They can also be used to update beliefs about the world, which might be rewarding in itself. For example, if you get a bigger pay rise than you expected because you made a big effort to negotiate with your employer, you will realise that this is a helpful approach that you should stick with. It may also feel like you’ve earned it.</p>
<p>So could it be that reward prediction errors are associated with happiness not because of the rewards, but instead because they help us understand the world a little better than before?</p>
<h2>The experiment</h2>
<p>In our recent study, we tested this idea. We designed a task in which the likelihood of receiving a reward was unrelated to the size of the reward, enabling us separate out the contributions of learning and reward in determining happiness.</p>
<p>Seventy-five participants got to play a game which involved deciding which of two cars would win a race without prior knowledge about them. In the “stable” condition, one of the cars always had an 80% chance of winning. In the “volatile” condition, one car had an 80% chance of winning for the first 20 trials. The other car then had an 80% chance of winning for the next 20 trials. The volunteers were not told these probabilities in advance but had to figure it out by trial and error while playing the game.</p>
<p>On every trial, the volunteers were shown the reward they would receive if the car they chose went on to win. Potential prizes were randomly assigned to the two cars. Making good choices required considering both the potential rewards and the probability of winning (you’d obviously want to win huge amounts often). But the size of rewards was not useful for learning which car was more likely to win in the future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/happiness-is-feeling-content-more-important-than-purpose-and-goals-131503">Happiness: is feeling content more important than purpose and goals?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Every few trials, the volunteers were asked to move a cursor to indicate their current level of happiness. Not surprisingly, the volunteers were happier after winning than after losing. On average, they were also less happy in the volatile compared to the stable condition. This was especially true for volunteers who reported symptoms of depression. </p>
<p>The biggest surprise was that happiness did not depend at all on the size of rewards. Instead, momentary happiness depended on whether outcomes were better than expected – so that the cars did even better than the participants had thought. This helped participants update beliefs while ignoring information about the size of rewards. In other words, it was the process of learning how the game worked which made people feel good rather than the amount of reward they win. </p>
<h2>The benefits of learning</h2>
<p>These results suggest that how we learn about the world around us can be more important for how we feel than rewards we receive directly. It makes sense when you consider that learning is often considered as being intrinsically rewarding – whether it is a language, historical facts, Sudoku or a computer game. That is, people seek out learning opportunities and enjoy learning them even if it does not clearly result in material gain. This is backed up by the fact that nobody enjoys playing very easy games or unsolvable games, which in both cases provide little in the way of learning opportunities. Instead, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13415-018-0612-6#Tab2">we enjoy playing challenging games</a> that we can learn to master. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of a mother and daughter using laptop studying to play ukulele at home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381684/original/file-20210201-13-wmjid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s never too late to learn a musical instrument.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-mother-daughter-using-laptop-studying-1746883658">My Life Graphic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finding regular opportunities to learn may therefore be <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Wealth-and-happiness-across-the-world%3A-material-Diener-Ng/40eea5e85514360e7efb7de36502937c5e16f20d">important for wellbeing</a>. In fact, research shows that the motivation to perform an intrinsically rewarding activity, such as solving a problem, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/107/49/20911.short">can actually be undermined</a> when a reward (such as a payment) is introduced. In the real world, rewards are often uncertain and infrequent, but the good news is that learning may nevertheless have the potential to boost happiness.</p>
<p>Our study also raises important questions about why some people are worse at dealing with uncertain situations than others, such as those with depression. Further research is needed to understand why this might be the case. To that end, we developed a smartphone app (<a href="https://thehappinessproject.live/">The Happiness Project</a>) that anyone can download for free to contribute to scientific research on happiness.</p>
<p>This huge citizen science project includes games in which you learn and make decisions and report how happy you feel as you play them. Anonymous surveys help us understand the differences between people and might help to explain what happens in common conditions such as anxiety and depression. There is still a lot to learn about happiness – and everyone can contribute.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robb Rutledge receives funding from the UK Medical Research Foundation, the Brain & Behavior Research Foundation, and the National Institute of Mental Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bastien Blain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Receiving a pay raise will make you feel happier only if it was bigger than what you had expected. Why? Because it helps you learn.
Bastien Blain, Research associate in Cognitive Neuroscience, UCL
Robb Rutledge, Assistant Professor in Psychology, Yale University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/152088
2020-12-31T00:17:40Z
2020-12-31T00:17:40Z
(Economics) books to read over summer
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375208/original/file-20201215-20-12n7puc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=195%2C247%2C2188%2C1302&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tatiana Bobkova/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><h2>The Deficit Myth: How to Build a Better Economy</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375056/original/file-20201215-13-kdkh6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stephanie Kelton, <a href="https://www.hachette.com.au/stephanie-kelton/the-deficit-myth-modern-monetary-theory-and-how-to-build-a-better-economy">Hachette Australia</a></p>
<p>No book prepared ahead of time better targeted the year in economics.</p>
<p>Just as governments including Australia’s were embracing debt (A$800 billion and counting) and creating money out of nowhere ($200 billion scheduled) came a treatise explaining that at times like these (actually, at any time when the resources of the economy aren’t fully employed) that’s <a href="https://stephaniekelton.com/book/">entirely responsible</a>.</p>
<p>Stephanie Kelton’s book has rightly been displayed on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/aug/28/sparking-joy-alan-kohlers-walk-on-the-wild-side-rocks-abc">Alan Kohler’s desk</a>, and Kohler himself has become a convert to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/thisweekendlife/alan-kohler-explains-modern-monetary-theory/12609134">modern monetary theory</a> which the book outlines in the clearest of terms.</p>
<p>Kelton explains that in an economy such as Australia’s the purpose of tax isn’t to raise money but to slow spending, and something else: demanding the payment of tax in Australian dollars forces Australians to use Australian dollars.</p>
<p>The example of teenagers not cleaning up around the house that she used in her talk at Adelaide University in January is priceless. You can watch the video <a href="https://theconversation.com/bernie-sanders-economic-adviser-has-a-message-for-australia-we-might-just-need-130182">here</a>.</p>
<h2>Economics in the Age of COVID-19</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375058/original/file-20201215-15-19jvgjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Joshua Gans, <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/economics-age-covid-19">MIT Press</a></p>
<p>Written as we were coming to grips with what to do, and posted online <a href="https://economics-in-the-age-of-covid-19.pubpub.org/">chapter by chapter</a> to get real-time feedback, the Australian author’s flash of inspiration was that we have experience in shutting down an economy and then restarting it.</p>
<p>We do it every Christmas writes Joshua Gans, and “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-i-wrote-and-published-a-book-about-the-economics-of-coronavirus-in-a-month-137489">no-one screams depression</a>”.</p>
<p>That his way of seeing things now dominates talk about the pandemic doesn’t make it less radical. It’s partly because of his insights, published in April, that most governments no longer think that in this crisis they can trade off health against wealth. </p>
<p>He persuades by analogy. Fans of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIpqpRuGrq4">Mission Impossible II</a>, the computer game <a href="https://www.ndemiccreations.com/en/22-plague-inc">Plague Inc</a> and the came of chess will appreciate the references.</p>
<h2>Radical Uncertainty</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375061/original/file-20201215-20-1kysruo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Mervyn King, John Kay, <a href="https://www.hachette.com.au/mervyn-king-john-kay/radical-uncertainty-decision-making-for-an-unknowable-future">Hachette Australia</a></p>
<p>The idea that every possibility can be reduced to a number, to a probability, is what makes simple mathematical economics work. It’s what makes insurance and credit ratings and assessments of the risk of getting coronavirus work. And it is wrong, as became clear in the devastation caused by the global financial crisis.</p>
<p>By itself, that’s not a particularly useful observation, but what is useful is the author’s discovery of where the idea that probability could be reduced to a simple number came from. The Nobel Prize winning economist <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1976/press-release/">Milton Friedman</a> shares much of the blame. He insisted that every uncertainty could be reduced a number that a rational utility-maximising human being could use to make decisions.</p>
<p>Before Friedman and contemporaries, there used to be two numbers, one representing risk, and the other representing uncertainty, which are quite different things and can’t be thrown together.</p>
<p>If you’re too busy for the book, try the London School of Economics <a href="https://www2.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?facet=all&term=king%20kay%20radical%20uncertainty">podcast</a>.</p>
<h2>Fully Grown: Why A Stagnant Economy Is A Sign Of Success</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375051/original/file-20201215-22-zrxhib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Dietrich Vollrath, <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo44520849.html">University of Chicago Press</a></p>
<p>Advanced economies may or may not roar out of the recession, but they are unlikely to boom as they did before. For decade after decade throughout the 1900s annual economic growth has been strong, averaging 2% per capita in the US. </p>
<p>In the first two decades of the 2000’s that growth has been weak, averaging 1% – only half of what it did.</p>
<p>Dietrich Vollrath, who <a href="https://growthecon.com/">blogs on growth</a> and had no preconceptions, approached the puzzle as a mystery and found that the usual suspects (rising inequality, slower innovation, competition from China) didn’t explain enough. </p>
<p>The extra comes from success. The populations of the US and kindred nations have become so rich and (on average) old that having more children and striving for even higher incomes no longer makes sense.</p>
<p>The technical stuff is at the back. The message from the front is that we’ve arrived at our destination, which needn’t be a bad thing.</p>
<h2>Economics in Two Lessons</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1163&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1163&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375063/original/file-20201215-14-s4raam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1163&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>John Quiggin, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691154947/economics-in-two-lessons">Princeton University Press</a></p>
<p>I’ve slipped this one in from 2019 for a reason. John Quiggin is about to publish a sequel, <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/mgkgndnlrrbb08j/Synopsis.pdf">The Economic Consequences of the Pandemic</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ebooksllc.com/ebook/economics-in-one-lesson/">Economics in One Lesson</a>, published in 1946 financial journalist Henry Hazlitt, was a homage to the power of prices in a free market. </p>
<p>In lesson one (the first half of the book) Quiggin teases out Hazlitt’s thinking, and in lesson two shows how it follows from it that in many circumstances the market has to be contained.</p>
<p>Central to both lessons is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/opportunitycost.asp">opportunity cost</a>, “what you give up in order to get something”, the most important concept in economics.</p>
<p>Polluters will make the wrong decisions if the cost of their pollution (largely borne by others) isn’t charged for. It’s a persuasive and increasingly-pressing argument.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
From money creation to COVID to uncertainty to the end of rapid economic growth, Peter Martin’s summer reading list is unsettling and uplifting.
Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/151420
2020-12-10T16:41:37Z
2020-12-10T16:41:37Z
Learning to cope with uncertainty during COVID-19
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374252/original/file-20201210-18-hri153.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C10369%2C2900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/group-scared-people-expressing-fear-anxiety-1711787635">artbesouro/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past nine months, the word “uncertainty” has cropped up time and time again across the news and <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=uncertain">social media worldwide</a>. The pandemic has created uncertainty in nearly every aspect of daily life. </p>
<p>This is not only down to worries over exposure to COVID-19 and access to medical care, but also concerns about the stability of the economy, job security, the availability of food and household supplies – and even when to book a holiday. We have needed to adjust and readjust our behaviour continually in response to changing risks and government guidelines. </p>
<p>My research focuses on “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S088761850600051X">intolerance of uncertainty</a>” – when uncertainty leads to high levels of distress. Recent research has highlighted that intolerance of uncertainty is likely to play a key role in our mental health as we cope with the <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2020-52963-001.html">pandemic</a>. Understanding how we respond to uncertainty may help us alleviate some of the mental strain of the pandemic.</p>
<p>Uncertainty makes it difficult for us to predict what decisions to make and how to act. For this reason, it is common to find uncertainty upsetting, confusing and frustrating. </p>
<p>But some people tend to find uncertainty particularly distressing and challenging to cope with. They worry excessively over what will happen, as well as avoid situations with uncertainty. Ultimately, this distress makes good outcomes less pleasurable and bad outcomes more stressful. </p>
<p>Intolerance of uncertainty can be found within many different <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272735819302909">mental health issues</a>. These include anxiety, mood, post-traumatic stress, eating and obsessive-compulsive disorders. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man with laptop looks out of the window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C6237%2C4174&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374230/original/file-20201210-17-4izfsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">COVID-19 has created new levels of uncertainty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-thoughtful-african-american-businessman-leaning-1660489735">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The pandemic has introduced an unexpected new level of uncertainty into all our lives. The obvious downside is that uncertainty on such a mass scale will likely lead to greater, more intense and generalised uncertainty distress in people with preexisting mental health conditions. It may also <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30308-4/fulltext">generate further new cases</a> in people who are vulnerable or at risk of developing mental health conditions due to their circumstances. </p>
<p>People are now relying on mental health services <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-10-2020-covid-19-disrupting-mental-health-services-in-most-countries-who-survey">more than ever</a>. It is likely that this increased demand on mental health services will continue over the next couple of years at the very least. </p>
<h2>Learning to cope</h2>
<p>But the pandemic has presented an opportunity to raise awareness of uncertainty distress and <a href="https://theconversation.com/keep-calm-and-carry-on-but-how-a-psychologist-offers-10-tips-to-manage-the-uncertainty-and-stress-of-election-aftermath-149605">how to best cope with it</a> in the general population. </p>
<p>Experimental research suggests that individuals with higher self-reported intolerance of uncertainty may benefit from clearer <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005796719300452?via%3Dihub">safety information</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167876020300799">more experience of uncertainty</a>. </p>
<p>It’s important to learn that uncertainty doesn’t always mean that something bad will happen – and it’s possible that current psychological therapies that aim to change core beliefs could be modified to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005796711002701">target uncertainty distress</a>.</p>
<p>So how do we apply this research to our experiences of uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond? Uncertainty is a complex beast and may manifest itself in many different ways – but there are some things we can do to manage it. </p>
<p>Mental health professionals have suggested a <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/oneyou/every-mind-matters/how-to-manage-change-coronavirus-covid-19/">number of different steps</a> that can help. First and foremost, we can recognise that uncertainty is an inevitable part of life and we should take the time to acknowledge how it makes us feel. </p>
<p>Secondly, we can think about whether minimising uncertainty is a realistic or useful goal. For example, in relation to the pandemic, we can reduce some uncertainty related to COVID-19 transmission by following the government guidelines as best we can – while recognising that there are other aspects that are out of our control. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman receiving food delivery." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374258/original/file-20201210-22-q9k8kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Try ordering food from a new restaurant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/indian-woman-customer-wearing-face-mask-1780097543">insta_photos/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>We can also challenge our uncertainty tolerance by <a href="https://letstalkaboutcbt.libsyn.com/tolerating-uncertainty-what-helps">expanding our comfort zone</a> at our own pace. For instance, you could try ordering food from a new restaurant or watch a film that you know nothing about. </p>
<p>Encouragingly, the pandemic has spurred researchers and mental health professionals to <a href="https://www.covid19an.com/about-us">band together</a> in exploring potential solutions for uncertainty distress management. </p>
<p>At this stage, it is hard to measure what the impact of sustained uncertainty on such a global scale will be. For instance, we may end up with a global generation of people who are accepting of uncertainty – or who find uncertainty intolerable.</p>
<p>For now, we will just have to monitor the situation, apply what strategies we can and prepare ourselves for the endless outcomes and possibilities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jayne Morriss receives funding from the Brain & Behavior Research Foundation and the Economic Social Research Council.</span></em></p>
It is common to find uncertainty upsetting, confusing and frustrating.
Jayne Morriss, Senior Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Psychology, University of Reading
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149605
2020-11-06T14:34:46Z
2020-11-06T14:34:46Z
Keep calm and carry on – but how? A psychologist offers 10 tips to manage uncertainty and stress around the midterm elections
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367960/original/file-20201106-23-1tctq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=617%2C605%2C7316%2C4881&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Doomscrolling is not going to help.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-woman-laying-in-bed-and-using-smart-phone-royalty-free-image/1173571335">ArtistGNDphotography/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Well-meaning advice for people stressing out about current events often includes encouragement to be patient, stay calm and keep the faith – but how on Earth are you supposed to do that when the onslaught of troubling news seems never to stop?</p>
<p>As a practicing clinical psychologist and professor who studies how to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=zYSMPmcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">manage anxiety and tolerate uncertainty</a>, I offer 10 suggestions to make it through this highly stressful period.</p>
<h2>1. Put the phone down!</h2>
<p>While it is tempting to stay glued to your devices, never-ending doomscrolling and screen-refreshing can become overwhelming and keep you in a state of tension and constant vigilance. Excessive consumption of news and social media <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2017.12.006">predicts poorer long-term mental health</a> during times of crisis.</p>
<p>Plan some breaks where you can engage in activities that take your mind off politics and the uncertainties we face, and allow things to feel a little more normal for a while.</p>
<h2>2. Uncertainty doesn’t equal catastrophe</h2>
<p>It’s hard not to know things – outcomes of elections, for instance. But not knowing doesn’t mean you should assume the worst-case scenario has occurred. When anxious – as many in the U.S. are right now – people tend to assign <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2007.01.009">threatening meanings to ambiguous situations</a>. But this tendency is neither reliably accurate nor helpful. Jumping to catastrophic conclusions is like setting off a series of false alarms that keep you on edge and exaggerate your sense of threat.</p>
<h2>3. Don’t retreat into bed</h2>
<p>The feeling of deep disappointment about election results you don’t like, or apprehension about reducing greenhouse gas emissions, can trigger a desire to withdraw and hole up. While that response is natural, it tends to be counterproductive. Staying engaged in activities that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2850.2009.01178.x">give you a sense of accomplishment, pleasure or meaning</a> can make managing this time far less painful.</p>
<h2>4. Remember, it won’t always feel this intense</h2>
<p>It’s normal and understandable to feel overwhelmed by current events. Focus on what will help you manage this day without punishing yourself for being upset or feeling depleted. Attending to what’s happening in the moment while also recognizing it’s not permanent can help you stay both present and hopeful. While in many ways it is true that we’re living in a unique and unprecedented era, it’s also the case that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2018.05.008">human beings tend to be remarkably resilient</a>, even in the face of tremendous stress and trauma.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman smiling on phone while cooking in kitchen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367962/original/file-20201106-23-1tpvdz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even video chatting can be a way to connect over a shared activity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/smiling-woman-using-phone-while-cooking-in-kitchen-royalty-free-image/960879178">Cavan Images/Cavan via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Don’t go through this time alone</h2>
<p>Feeling isolated, whether physically or emotionally, can make a hard time feel worse. When people experience acute stress, they cope much better <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01832.x">if they have social support</a>.</p>
<p>So reach out and stay connected – whether that means texting about the latest vote count with a friend or purposefully taking a break from ruminating on current events. It’s a great time to deeply discuss what you think about Taylor Swift’s new album.</p>
<h2>6. Stay regular</h2>
<p>No, I am not referring to your bowels – maintain regular and healthy eating, sleep and exercise patterns. While self-care may seem unimportant, attending to those basic bodily needs can go a long way toward keeping your internal resources sufficiently replenished so you can meet the high demands of this time. There is increasing evidence that <a href="https://doi.org/10.5665/sleep.2810">poor sleep is closely connected</a> to many mental and emotional health difficulties.</p>
<p>So stop refreshing your feed in the wee hours and try to sleep.</p>
<h2>7. Help others</h2>
<p>It may feel odd to be asked to support others when you feel so depleted yourself, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/01.PSY.0000079378.39062.D4">helping others is linked to benefits in your own mental health</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, it provides a sense of control. There’s so much during this time that you cannot control – there is no magic wand that speeds up vote counting in critical contested races or makes climate resolutions between countries come sooner. But taking action to improve things now for the people around you both helps others and reminds you that you can make a difference in meaningful ways.</p>
<p>So, bake cookies to drop off on the doorstep of the friend who caught the flu. Offer to take an item off a work colleague’s overwhelming to-do list. If you’re in a position to help, make a donation to a cause you care about. It’s a win-win.</p>
<h2>8. Add to your toolbox</h2>
<p>Each person is different in what helps them to relax or feel more centered. Focusing on and slowing down your breathing, for instance, can help keep you grounded in the present moment and reduce the spiral of upsetting thoughts about what might come next. Others find it helpful to more directly practice taking a different perspective and reevaluating their anxious thoughts.</p>
<p>For many people, online mindfulness or cognitive therapy exercises can make a big difference. Check out <a href="https://onemindpsyberguide.org/">online mental health programs that have been reviewed by experts</a> and pick the resource that’s right for you.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman lying on couch with dog" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367963/original/file-20201106-19-13uxzvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cut some slack for yourself and others – this is a time when good enough is good enough.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/girl-sleeping-on-couch-with-her-golden-retriever-royalty-free-image/1022892336">Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>9. Offer compassion to yourself</h2>
<p>The combination of pandemic stresses, economic worries, social injustices, climate breakdown and more means few of us will be at our best right now as we try to just make it through the day.</p>
<p>There’s a lot of room between performing at 100% of your usual capacity and climbing into bed and hiding under the covers for days on end. Personally, I’m trying to average 80%. People managing greater challenges at this time than I am may shoot for a lower percentage.</p>
<p>No one is making it through this time unscathed, so kindness to ourselves and others is desperately needed.</p>
<h2>10. Reach out if you need additional help</h2>
<p>If recommendations 1-9 aren’t cutting it, there are lots of resources to help people through this difficult period:</p>
<ul>
<li>National Suicide Prevention Lifeline: 988</li>
<li>Crisis Text Line: Text HOME to 741741</li>
<li><a href="https://www.abct.org/Help/?m=mFindHelp&fa=dFindHelp">Find a therapist</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.nami.org/Your-Journey/Identity-and-Cultural-Dimensions">Find culturally competent mental health care</a></li>
<li>Use my research team’s free intervention to reduce anxious thinking: <a href="https://mindtrails.virginia.edu/">MindTrails</a> (part of an online study)</li>
</ul>
<p>Be patient, stay calm and keep the faith is a tall order. I’ll be happy if I can get most of the way there.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Nov. 6, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bethany Teachman receives funding from the National Institute of Mental Health. She is the Director of the MindTrails site.</span></em></p>
As uncertainty abounds and anxiety skyrockets, you’ve probably heard advice to be patient, stay calm and keep the faith. Here are 10 concrete tips to help you actually manage the stress.
Bethany Teachman, Professor of Psychology, University of Virginia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149509
2020-11-06T00:45:05Z
2020-11-06T00:45:05Z
5 types of misinformation to watch out for while ballots are being counted – and after
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367794/original/file-20201105-17-l50fcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C8%2C6000%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mail-in and absentee ballots, like these being processed by election workers in Pennsylvania, are a subject of misinformation spreading across social media.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXElection2020PennsylvaniaVoteCounting/54d2d6155b234fd096c55f8c2a4f088b/photo">AP Photo/Matt Slocum</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With no clear winner yet in the presidential election, there’s an opportunity for partisan activists, conspiracy theorists and others to exploit public uncertainty and anxiety to attempt to delegitimize the election results.</p>
<p>A growing number of narratives alleging electoral wrongdoing have been spreading on social media, shared through millions of tweets, Facebook posts and TikTok videos, often using hashtags like #riggedelection and #StopTheSteal. These types of narratives rely on “evidence” of ballots that are lost or found after the election, dubious statistics, misleading videos and allegations of foreign interference. People seeking to delegitimize election results are weaving real-world events, such as isolated confrontations with poll workers or broken voting machines, into claims of broader malfeasance by nefarious partisans on one side or the other.</p>
<p>As members of the <a href="https://www.eipartnership.net/">Election Integrity Partnership</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=C6KSF5gAAAAJ&hl=en">researchers</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=db5ZPlkAAAAJ&hl=en">who study</a> online misinformation and disinformation, we have been monitoring social media. We are seeing five types of false and misleading narratives that people are spreading and are likely to spread online, wittingly or not. We urge people to be alert for – and to avoid spreading – the following types of misinformation, which erode trust in the electoral process and in one another.</p>
<h2>1. Attempts to sow confusion and doubt</h2>
<p>The wait for election results has been a stressful one. During times of uncertainty and anxiety, people are vulnerable to misinformation and manipulation. </p>
<p>Because of significant increases in the number of mail-in ballots in many states and unevenly timed processes for counting mail-in, early in-person and Election Day in-person ballots, even experts are struggling to make predictions and understand how remaining votes may line up. This lack of understanding and certainty can fuel doubt, fan misinformation and provide opportunities for those seeking to delegitimize the results. </p>
<p>As the vote counts come in and vote shares shift, some “influencers” – people with many followers in the media and on social media – have been questioning, with dubious evidence, the results and the voting process in battleground states. For example, images purporting to show people moving ballots in nefarious ways have gone viral – <a href="https://twitter.com/PhillyGOP/status/1323749627707969537">one turned out to be a poll worker</a> moving ballots in an official capacity, and another turned out to be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/05/video-claiming-detroit-ballot-fraud-debunked/">a photographer transporting equipment</a>. There have also been several <a href="https://twitter.com/PamelaGeller/status/1324015686620860416">disputed claims</a> that sudden increases in votes for one candidate indicate voter fraud. </p>
<h2>2. “Evidence” of voter fraud</h2>
<p>Many people have documented and shared their experiences at the polls on Election Day. Though the vast majority were uneventful, some showed isolated issues. Similarly, some stories in local news outlets and on social media showed isolated problems with mail-in ballots and voting at polling stations. Politically motivated individuals are likely to cherry-pick and assemble these pieces of digital “evidence” to fit narratives that seek to undermine trust in the results.</p>
<p>Much of this evidence is likely to be derived from real events, though taken out of context and exaggerated. As the race begins to focus in on a small number of states where the vote margin is slim, we expect to see cases of an incident in one place used to support false claims of fraud in another place.</p>
<p>A narrative that emerged on Election Day – and that continues to spread – <a href="https://twitter.com/2020Partnership/status/1324136879998918656/photo/1">falsely claims</a> that poll workers provided some voters with pencils or Sharpie pens that would have rendered their ballots unreadable by the voting machines, thus nullifying some Trump supporters’ votes. There were more than 160,000 tweets and retweets that used the terms “Sharpies,” “felt tip” or “Sharpiegate” over the course of Nov. 4. The false claims quickly moved into the offline world. They were <a href="https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1324188580642607110">echoed by Trump supporters</a> protesting in Maricopa County, Arizona, that evening, and Fox News <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/arizona-ag-investigating-complaints-from-maricopa-county-voters-over-usage-of-sharpies-on-ballots">reported</a> that the state attorney general’s office was “investigating” the matter.</p>
<h2>3. Ballots “found,” ballots “lost”</h2>
<p>One of the most dominant narratives on the political right is likely to be Democratic activists or officials forging votes or faking vote totals to make up ground after the polls closed. This is a conspiracy theory that was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/10-states-still-counting-millions-votes-trump-falsely-claims-he-n1246336">alluded to by President Trump on election night</a>, when he claimed to fear that ballots might be “found” at four o'clock in the morning and “added to the list.” </p>
<p>False claims of found ballots in Georgia emerged on Twitter on Nov. 4 and were amplified by Donald Trump Jr. On Nov. 5 Facebook <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/05/facebook-trump-protests/">banned a group called Stop The Steal</a> for violating the platform’s policies. The group had been promoting conspiracy theories about ballots and organizing protests.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tweet with a flag from Twitter warning the contents of the tweet are disputed and might be misleading." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367830/original/file-20201105-18-qm3ai1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Twitter has been flagging false and misleading tweets like this claim that ballots in Georgia were created after polls closed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screen capture by Kate Starbird, University of Washington</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>False claims that nefarious poll workers or activists <a href="https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324088311644856327">destroyed</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9677886017">discarded</a> or intentionally mislaid Republican ballots, or replaced them with fake Democratic ones, could also be woven into this narrative.</p>
<p>We expect people seeking to delegitimize election results to promote this theory using a number of interlinking elements. They are likely to frame statistical shifts and the fixing of reporting errors as post-election ballot stuffing – for example, the recent false claim that votes had <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/no-biden-did-not-receive-thousands-mysteriously-su/">“magically” appeared for Biden</a> overnight in Michigan. The reality in this case was an error in a file the state sent to a media outlet. The theory is likely to also focus on <a href="https://twitter.com/daveyalba/status/1323759284572823554">chain-of-custody events</a>, to create the impression that ballots could be added or swapped. </p>
<p>Together, purported anomalies in statistics, local news reports about misplaced ballots and occasional video of alleged ballot mistreatment could be used to form a greater narrative of a vast, multilevel institutional conspiracy. Since modern conspiracy theories are relatively omnivorous, even tangential elements such as the Sharpiegate claim could be folded into this broader story. </p>
<h2>4. Bad projections</h2>
<p>Even the best election models are often wrong. Inaccurate projections, which can be intentionally or accidentally wrong, can be picked up and used to contest results that conflict with the projection or cast doubt on the process as a whole. Early projections by Fox News and the AP of Biden winning Arizona appear to have been premature given the closeness of the race there, and if the final tally moves in Trump’s favor it could fuel criticism about an unfair process. Trump supporters protesting in Maricopa County on Nov. 4 <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/pro-trump-protesters-gather-around-maricopa-arizona-counting-center-n1246559">expressed anger at Fox News</a> for its Arizona call.</p>
<p>Two complicating factors in the 2020 election are that the polls are quite different from the actual vote share, and that the scale and demographics of mail-in voting, which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/01/why-itll-be-normal-if-results-shift-in-the-days-after-the-election">skews Democratic</a>, have complicated traditional models for projecting victory. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HXXeAHnVoII?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Red shifts and blue shifts – when vote tallies shift from one candidate to the other as votes are counted – are common, but that hasn’t stopped purveyors of misinformation from citing them to falsely claim fraud.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These conditions, along with close margins in several states, have made it more difficult to project winners for several races. The longer periods of uncertainty create more opportunity for misinformation to spread.</p>
<h2>5. Premature claims to victory</h2>
<p>Early in the morning of Nov. 4, not long after polls closed at the end of Election Day, President Trump made a speech in which he <a href="https://www.today.com/video/trump-falsely-claims-victory-with-millions-of-votes-still-to-be-counted-95296069608">falsely asserted</a> that he had won the election. Later in the day he followed up with a tweet claiming victory in specific states, including Pennsylvania, where election officials were still counting votes and no reputable news organization had called the race.</p>
<p>These premature and potentially inaccurate claims of victory again set the stage for arguing that conflicting results are somehow fraudulent or reflect a “rigged” election. This argument could advance the objectives of a political candidate and appeal to his supporters, but it can also undermine trust that the electoral process is fair.</p>
<h2>Shoring up the foundations of democracy</h2>
<p>Political misinformation destabilizes the foundations of democracy, causing people to lose trust in democratic processes, information providers and, ultimately, one another. </p>
<p>We are working to better understand these dynamics and identify ways to counter them, with the aim of helping people become more resistant to manipulation. Our advice is to remain skeptical of claims about the election that haven’t been confirmed by reliable sources and to think before liking, retweeting or sharing.</p>
<p><em>Michael Caulfield, Director of Blended and Networked Learning at Washington State University Vancouver, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Starbird receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Knight Foundation, the Hewlett Foundation, and Craig Newmark Philanthropies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jevin West receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Knight Foundation, the Hewlett Foundation, and Craig Newmark Philanthropies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renee DiResta receives funding from Craig Newmark Philanthropies, the Hewlett Foundation, Omidyar Network, and the Charles Koch Foundation.</span></em></p>
Election misinformation typically involves false narratives of fraud that include out-of-context or otherwise misleading images and faulty statistics as purported evidence.
Kate Starbird, Associate Professor of Human Centered Design & Engineering, University of Washington
Jevin West, Associate Professor and Director of the Center for an Informed Public, University of Washington
Renee DiResta, Research Manager of the Stanford Internet Observatory, Stanford University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149479
2020-11-05T21:46:13Z
2020-11-05T21:46:13Z
Election ambiguity may be beneficial in the short term, but in the long term it’s corrosive
<p>As the results of the US election began to arrive, political junkies tried their best to make sense of what was happening. But it soon became obvious that the only thing clear about the results was that they were ambiguous. </p>
<p>Ambiguity is a strategic resource leaders use to accomplish their <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03637758409390197">[goals]</a>. When the US president, Donald Trump, appeared in the early hours of Wednesday morning, he told the small crowd “we were getting ready to win the election”, adding “frankly we did win this election”. A few hours earlier, Biden had appeared on stage and told his supporters “to keep the faith guys, we’re gonna win this”. Neither knew the outcome of the election. But they knew they had to make the most political capital out of the situation’s ambiguity. </p>
<p>The lack of a clear, immediate outcome meant partisan supporters were temporarily off the hook from questioning their own <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fxge0000661">inflexible mindsets</a>. Trump supporters could focus on his victory in Florida and complain about supposed attempts by Democrats to “steal the election”. Biden supporters could focus on victories in the rust-belt states, and potentially even on eventual victory. As ever, these different interpretations were aided and abetted by the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3019414">division along political lines of the US news media</a>.</p>
<p>We might expect politicians to exploit ambiguity, while still hoping that financial markets prefer precision and certainty. But some investors seem to be fine with ambiguity as well. There were few <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/732afbb8-af6f-4bfa-9cd2-e7dab82873af">wild swings</a> in the financial markets, with VIX – the so-called investor “fear index” of volatility – falling about 20% following the election results, and the two main American stock markets rose. One investment strategist told the Financial Times that he was glad of a return to the “status quo”, while another expressed his relief that there had been no major outbreaks of violence.</p>
<p>The current situation may have helped politicians, partisans and investors in the short term, but such ambiguity could prove much more dangerous in the medium to longer term. Here, ambiguity can create a kind of cognitive cushion for leaders. It means they never have to update their assumptions, clinging to ideas that are increasingly out of touch with reality. A consequence is that leaders may commit to actions that are unwise, or downright dangerous. For a current example, Trump’s demand for all counting of votes to stop is a course of action that would, given that he is trailing, lose him the election.</p>
<h2>Compounding economic and political uncertainty</h2>
<p>Continued ambiguity can also be harmful for a politican’s followers. If partisan political tribes are faced with information that does not fit with their belief, they become disoriented and even angry. For example, those that believe their preferred candidate has won an election only to later discover that this is not the case, who might decide to explain this away with claims of victory being “stolen” from them. Believing they have had a justified outcome removed from them illegally, they may be more likely to rely on equally extra-institutional or illegal measures to express their displeasure and right what they perceive to be a wrong.</p>
<p>Lasting ambiguity can also have a negative impact on the economy. In the 2000 US presidential election, which led to a month of uncertainty as to the winner, stock markets <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02755983">dropped significantly</a>. Political uncertainty tends to hit some companies harder than others: firms closely connected to politicians are likely to see their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418108000219?casa_token=GppjPXJnF4AAAAAA:1vxgH0Ewx8js-RxuakIy5hdYzqNRAF7dcEzQFbobOnIZ45FelbBBwptAiMgZXNzcFn4DgxLoIDM">share prices fall</a>. </p>
<p>This economic impact can be increased if political ambiguity leads rival supporters to settle their differences on the streets. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/31/1/1/4060544">One study</a> in Egypt found that public protests lead to share price falls for firms connected to government figures. Continued political uncertainty can change the way firms behave. Firms are less likely to conduct <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/political-uncertainty-and-ipo-activity-evidence-from-us-gubernatorial-elections/8F2EE62C6038B166F009987127269210">initial public offerings</a> during politically uncertain periods, for instance. Firms are also much less likely to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/what-affects-innovation-more-policy-or-policy-uncertainty/FB21593CFF8551F9204850EFA896658B">invest in innovation</a>. </p>
<p>Uncertainty created by political ambiguity becomes <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/macroeconomic-effects-of-political-risk-shocks.pdf">a drag on economic growth </a>. Conversely as political uncertainty declines, share prices tend to rise, banks become more willing to lend, businesses employ more people, and those employees are able to consume more. </p>
<p>So an ambiguous electoral result might provide a space free of firm facts in which we can believe that reality matches our beliefs. But political ambiguity can bring with it dangerous consequences, fostering unrealistic beliefs, stoking conflict, and leading to economic stagnation. </p>
<p>In the US, we know that one candidate will be eventually confirmed as president. But the danger is that the political ambiguity created by this election – and <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/us-election-nears-researchers-are-following-trail-fake-news">deliberately fostered in some quarters</a> – will leave a long shadow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andre Spicer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Deliberately weaponising ambiguity to foster distrust in civic institutions is a dangerous game that can backfire.
Andre Spicer, Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Cass Business School, City, University of London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.