Anarchy in Kanaky? What the French elections mean for New Caledonia … and Australia

There’s no doubt that French President Nicolas Sarkozy needs the votes of the far right in the second round run off of the French elections this weekend. In the first round, right wing Front National candidate Marine Le Pen secured 17.9% of the vote; left winger Jean-Luc Melenchon 11.1%. In the run…

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At the Senat Coutumier in Noumea both the tricolour and the Kanak flags are still floating. Photo: Marie M'Balla-Ndi

There’s no doubt that French President Nicolas Sarkozy needs the votes of the far right in the second round run off of the French elections this weekend.

In the first round, right wing Front National candidate Marine Le Pen secured 17.9% of the vote; left winger Jean-Luc Melenchon 11.1%. In the run-off this Sunday, the stakes have never been higher for Sarkozy.

But in a far-flung former colony in the Pacific, the stakes are just as high, if not higher. The French territory of New Caledonia is scheduled to undertake an act of self determination between 2014 and 2019 – under the Noumea Accords of 1998.

The Kanaks and the Caldoches

New Caledonia is a mere 1400 km east of Brisbane – that’s 300 km closer to Brisbane than Cairns. Paris, on the other hand, is 16,000km away.

The population of some 250,000 people comprises the Kanak people – the indigenous Melanesian minority at 44%; the Caldoches, permanent French settlers who are the legacy of New Caledonia’s history as a penal colony, and Metros, administrative functionaries from metropolitan France who are short term residents. Together, the Caldoches and Metros make up some 34% of the population. Pacific Islanders from other French Pacific territories make up the rest.

Agitation by the Kanaks for independence – a nation they called Kanaky – in the 80s saw bloodshed in the colony, and two agreements: the Matignon Accords (1988) followed by the Noumea Accords in 1998. These allowed for a self determination process by the people – Kanaks and Caldoches together. Given France’s post-war record on decolonisation – such as in Asia and Africa – we remain pessimistic about the ability the Fifth Republic to allow and manage any transition to independence, let alone a peaceful one.

Presidential preference and politics

Sarkozy’s preference is for New Caledonia to remain part of France. “Don’t be afraid of the French Republic”, Sarkozy told New Caledonians on his first, and possibly last, visit to the South Pacific “collectivity” (colony) late last year.

Hollande’s policy is much more hands off: “The President should not have to say what preference he has for the future of New Caledonia,” Hollande told a press conference in France on April 10. Earlier this month the pro-independence party of the Melanesian minority, Le Front de Libération National Kanak et Socialiste, backed a vote for Hollande.

Sarkozy won nearly half the vote in New Caledonia in the first round (49.63%); Hollande 24.9% and Le Pen 11.6%. But voter turnout was extremely low – 55%. Of the 107 electoral districts in France, New Caledonia had the seventh lowest turnout – along with other French colonies: Guyana, French Polynesia, Martinique, Guadeloupe.

In light of the low turnout in the first round, the second round will give a better indication of the future. A win by Sarkozy will strengthen the will of the Caldoches – who oppose independence; a win for Hollande will encourage the pro-independence groups, and potentially also strengthen the resolve of the Caldoches.

Regional stability and independence

With so much at stake, it can seem that independence or anarchy are the only alternatives.

There is a theory that the small island nations in Australia’s northern orbit are an “arc of instability”: Papua New Guinea, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Timor Leste, and that the West Papuans are restive. To add anarchy in Kanaky to that list would be a foreign policy and defence headache for Australia.

There are certainly very few signs that the Australian foreign policy community – policy makers and academics alike – recognise the incipient threat constituted by New Caledonia. China, Indonesia, Timor, New Guinea get all the attention.

According a Kanak journalist whose identity we have protected, “the autonomy discussion is nothing else than hot air now. We want independence."

“The Accords provide us the right to choose to be independent and believe me we will not be fooled again after this election. We have been fooled for too long. We will fight for this right and our independence,” she said.

If this option is not on the table, anarchy might well take over for autonomy.

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5 Comments sorted by

  1. Bruce Moon

    Bystander!

    My take on the future of New Caledonia is not the attitude of the incumbent President, rather, the economic interests of the miners wreaking havok on the Islands.

    As a far flung outpost, any French militaristic needs associated with the southern Pacific ended with the demise of nuclear testing.

    But, the French and Anglo-French mining companies are doing very nicely from their ventures. I suggest the royalties/taxes they pay to Paris will hold more influence than local aspirations for independence; the threat of anarchy or conflict included.

    Cheers

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  2. Wei Ling Chua

    Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales

    Conversation is a good source of information. You can hardly find this kind of news in the mainstream media. Western powers are allowed to occupy countries thousands of miles away, exploiting their resources, changing their culture and the voices of the natives can hardly be heard across the world. Yet, when other country is trying to develop it economy, building a harmony society, the West will use it resources to operate covertly, stir racial tension, social discontent or simply finance and train some locals to create problem for the host country. There is no love towards the west in most part of the world because of such behavior. Once Western economy been dramatically weaken, there will be more independent movement or break away within the western power themselves. Take note of how America will turn into chaotic once the dollar collapsed and hyperinflation set in. This will happen, hopefully soon. God bless the world.

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  3. John Harrison

    Senior Lecturer at University of Queensland

    Initial post election reports from Paris are that Sarkozy comprehensively outpolled Hollande in New Caledonia. Meanwhile, Radio New Zealand International (RNZI) reported May 3 that a New Caledonian union leader told a Labour Day rally in Noumea that 2014 will bring independence from France. Louis Kotra Uregei has told a crowd of some 2000 that there will be no more waiting for the implementation of the 1998 Noumea Accords.

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  4. Joshua McDonnell

    logged in via LinkedIn

    It's lovely how the world is coming together, rather than endlessly fighting for separation (that's my rant on cosmopolitanism over). But for a more tangible concern, I think discussion on independence and self-determination needs to be deeper than black and white options: independence or colonialism. It is curious that this paradigm still persists amongst those seeking self-determination and amongst those commentating on it, given the unqualified success that independence has been over the past…

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  5. Simon Batterbury

    Associate Professor at University of Melbourne

    Sorry I missed this article at the time, since I was in Noumea. Well, Hollande swept it.
    Not sure what happened since, but calls for delaying the referendum on NC independence were already there in the election campaigning. Under Hollande, perhaps delays can only go to the permitted 2018 rather than 2014. There is still bickering about voting eleigibility though (especially from the Front National) .

    Necolonialism in NC is driven in part by material interests - the enormous potential within…

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