As Australia lurches from drought to floods, temperatures continue to rise

Greenhouse gases have increased at more than 3% a year for the past decade to reach their highest level in 800,000 years, according to the latest summary of Australia’s long term climate trends by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. Despite recording the two coolest years this millennium in 2010 and…

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Some parts of Australia will experience more drought, while others will receive heavy rainfall. AAP/Dave Hunt

Greenhouse gases have increased at more than 3% a year for the past decade to reach their highest level in 800,000 years, according to the latest summary of Australia’s long term climate trends by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Despite recording the two coolest years this millennium in 2010 and 2011, Australia is continuing to observe rising temperatures over land that are consistent with global-scale warming, the climate report says. The average day and night-time temperatures in Australia are a degree higher than they were a century ago.

State of the Climate 2012 also says that sea levels have risen around Australia at rates equal to or greater than the global average, and sea surface temperatures in the region have increased faster than the global average. Temperatures for nine months in 2011 were among the top ten warmest months on record.

The climate report, released today, says that “most of the surface global warming observed since the mid-20th century” is due to man-made increases in greenhouse gases.

CSIRO Chief Executive, Megan Clark, said the latest analysis painted a clear decade-to-decade picture of Australia’s climate, while at the same time noting its highly variable nature from one year to the next.

“Much of Australia may have lurched from drought to floods since the previous State of the Climate, but this has occurred against a backdrop of steadily increasing air and ocean temperatures and rising sea levels,“ Dr Clark said. "What’s more, the rate of change is increasing.

“The fundamental physical and chemical processes leading to climate change are well understood, and CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology observations demonstrate that change is occurring now."

The report says that Australian average temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5 degrees by 2030 when compared with the climate of 1980 to 1999. The warming is projected to be in the range of 1.0 to 5.0 degrees by 2070 if global greenhouse gas emissions are within the range of projected future emission scenarios.

Southern Australia is expected to experience more droughts, but it also is likely that there will be an increase in rainfall in many areas.

According to the report, the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere rose to around 390 parts per million in 2011, a level unprecedented in the past 800,000 years.

Bureau of Meteorology Acting Director, Rob Vertessy, said the updated summary was based on improved understanding drawn from detailed analysis of Australia’s national climate record, which goes back more than a hundred years.

“Ground, ocean and satellite based observations are giving us highly consistent observations of this warming trend,“ Dr Vertessy said. "State of the Climate 2012 confirms that each decade has been warmer than the previous decade since the 1950s, with an increase in the number of warm nights, and more monthly maximum temperature records being broken.”

Professor David Karoly, from the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, said the report “confirms that the global climate is still warming, sea level is still rising and discusses the recent heavy rain in eastern Australia as due to two consecutive La Nina events.

“Given the substantial misinformation about climate change … this report is very helpful in providing clear messages that concerns about climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases are still very well based in sound science.”

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15 Comments sorted by

  1. Fred Pribac

    logged in via email @internode.on.net

    A minor point.

    The editor writes: Despite recording the two coolest years of the millenium in 2010 and 2011, Australia is continuing to observe rising temperatures over land that are consistent with global-scale warming, the climate report says.

    I belive that should read "the two coolest years of the last decade"! By saying "the millenium" it is opening it up to spurious claims from the various bloggers who will take it to mean the last thousand years.

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    1. Mark Duffett

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Fred Pribac

      And besides that, an even more minor point; it's 'millennium' :)

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  2. Timothy Curtin

    Economic adviser

    Regrettably, the post by Justin Norrie also repeats some of the more serious errors and shortcomings in the CSIRO and BoM' State of the Climate 2012.

    For example, he writes: “Greenhouse gases have increased at more than 3% a year for the past decade to reach their highest level in 800,000 years, according to the latest summary of Australia’s long term climate trends by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.”
    Justin like so many confuses emissions, which have indeed grown by more than 3% p.a. since…

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    1. Fred Pribac

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Timothy Curtin

      There is direct isotopic evidence (as illustrated in one of the graphs of the State of the Climate 2012 report) to support the notion that much of the CO2 in the atmosphere is due to human extraction and use of underground fossil fuel deposits.

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    2. Fred Pribac

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Fred Pribac

      I see that I have misunderstood your argument - the point I raise is not pertinent since you do not argue that there is no human contribution to the CO2 levels in the atmosphere. My apology!

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    3. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to Timothy Curtin

      "Water vapour arises principally from evaporation produced by the sun, so it is not anthropogenic." Cobblers.

      Water evaporation is driven by the difference between water vapour pressure of water in the atmosphere above a water surface, and saturation vapour pressure which is a monotonic function of temperature only.

      As temperature increases, so does the saturation vapour pressure, and hence the propensity for water molecules to evaporate.

      The temperature rise HAS been driven by anthropogenic…

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  3. Timothy Curtin

    Economic adviser

    What a stellar contribution from Michael Shand! He should go far. Apologies for sarcasm, but what else can one say?

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  4. Timothy Curtin

    Economic adviser

    David Arthur commented on my statement that "Water vapour arises principally from evaporation produced by the sun, so it is not anthropogenic" by saying "Cobblers [sic]. Water evaporation is driven by the difference between water vapour pressure of water in the atmosphere above a water surface, and saturation vapour pressure which is a monotonic function of temperature only. As temperature increases, so does the saturation vapour pressure, and hence the propensity for water molecules to evaporate…

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    1. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to Timothy Curtin

      Thanks Tim. I note that you've responded to my rebuttal of your comment on another page, and now I can't find it.

      As I recall it, the argument you were making begins with the contention that evaporation can only occur where there is direct impingement of sunlight on a water surface.

      The energy that powers evaporation is supplied by solar energy, there's no doubt of that. Locally (that is, above any given puddle, the RATE is a function of the difference between water vapour pressure and SATURATION water vapour pressure in that little bit of atmosphere.

      Thanks for the quote from Wikipedia that you give here. My comments are essentially consistent with it, whereas your previous comment (which set this little spat off) is not so consistent.

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    2. Dennis Alexander

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to David Arthur

      I do think it is significant that Tim ignores that burning fossil fuels (and wood and other organic matter) produces water along with Carbon Dioxide. While this may dwindle into insignificance when compared with evaporation from oceans, lakes, rivers and puddles, it does add previously encapsulated water to the naturally occurring water cycle with whatever cumulative effects arise from that, and it is anthropogenic. So, while the nice discussions of the Planck constants and the associated reradiative effects from methane etc look germane, I'm not convinced that they are anything other than a distraction from the main game.

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    3. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to Dennis Alexander

      I'll thank you for that comment, Dennis, on behalf of both myself and TIm. It may surprise you to learn that in personal communication, Tim has made the very same point.

      My response to you is that water formed and emitted as vapour during combustion is irrelevant. The major reason for this is that water formed and emitted as vapour during combustion is miniscule relative to water evaporated from water bodies.

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  5. Timothy Curtin

    Economic adviser

    Dennis Alexander said "I do think it is significant that Tim ignores that burning fossil fuels (and wood and other organic matter) produces water along with Carbon Dioxide. While this may dwindle into insignificance when compared with evaporation from oceans, lakes, rivers and puddles, it does add previously encapsulated water to the naturally occurring water cycle with whatever cumulative effects arise from that, and it is anthropogenic...."

    Actually it is not possible to cover all issues in…

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  6. Trevor Ellice

    Geologist

    Well some of these comments will come back to hurt the those who have uttered them. File under global warming agitprop. Odds on for some strong cooling over the next decades due to Sol having a rather week cycle 24 and some of the predictions I've seen for 25 look very worrying. The mantra will be burn more we need some warming from the God molecule CO2.

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