tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/2016-gop-convention-29321/articles2016 GOP Convention – The Conversation2016-07-22T12:11:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/628512016-07-22T12:11:32Z2016-07-22T12:11:32ZTrump promises America law and order, but he is a dire threat to both<p>Donald Trump is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/23/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html">not a normal</a> American presidential nominee, and there has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-republican-convention-was-farcical-vacuous-and-terrifying-62733">very little normal</a> about the Republican convention that has now officially confirmed his nomination. </p>
<p>Trump’s defining attributes have always been intemperance, divisiveness and indiscipline, so it should surprise no-one that “his” convention was so <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/a-dystopian-night-at-the-g-o-p-convention">intemperate</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004543154/cruz-booed-after-not-endorsing-trump.html">divided</a>, and close to outright <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/never-trump-delegates-have-support-needed-to-force-rules-vote-225716">farce</a>.</p>
<p>But however “eventful” the convention might have been, Trump’s formal nomination was always to be the centrepiece of the occasion. With due respect to the cast of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK0K3pYuY_U">reluctant colleagues</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bblEK2TErN8">relatives</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYNxL7Rqd6U">d-list</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gg2dTFu2sc">celebrities</a> spread out over the days before, Trump was always centre of attention. </p>
<p>Likewise, it was during his <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/us/politics/donald-trump-rnc-speech.html">acceptance speech</a> that the largest part of the general public tuned into proceedings – many perhaps paying full attention to the campaign for the first time.</p>
<p>For his committed supporters, meanwhile, Trump played exactly the tunes they wanted to hear, his performance coloured by a dark intensity. He painted a bleak (and <a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/fact-check-trump-crime-rates">inaccurate</a>) picture of an America overwhelmed by violent crime, before declaring himself “the law and order candidate” and promising that upon his election “safety will be restored”.</p>
<p>He told tales of Americans tragically killed by illegal immigrants, affirming one of his longest-standing pledges: to build a “border wall” and find and deport those already illegally in the country.</p>
<p>He blamed his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, who served as secretary of state during president Obama’s first term, for the rise of Islamic State and other agents of radical militant Islamism. Lamenting that “America is far less safe and the world is far less stable” than it was when she took charge of US foreign policy, he reassured the crowd that he would “defeat them fast” if he were elected.</p>
<p>He warned of the threat of terror attacks in the US, but pledged to neutralise them in part by suspending immigration from any country “compromised by terrorism” – without specifying what countries this would include.</p>
<p>And he extended sympathy to the plight of workers whose jobs had been taken away by “disastrous” trade deals, promising to get rid of current “bad” agreements with the likes of China and replace them with “great” ones instead.</p>
<p>In short, Trump used his address to stoke fear, to blame his political opponents for that which is frightening, and to offer himself as the singularly capable agent of change and renewal demanded by the times. </p>
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<p>Scorning any imperative to offer realistic solutions to the problems he railed against, Trump delivered a clear pitch: that, flying in the face of a “corrupt” establishment, he alone can speak for the “forgotten” working men and women who have suffered at the hands of a “rigged” system. “I am your voice!” he proclaimed.</p>
<p>As the blogger Andrew Sullivan <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/andrew-sullivan-liveblogs-the-rnc-night-4.html">summarised it</a>: “Everything is terrible. I alone can solve [everything]. Just don’t ask me how.”</p>
<h2>A crisis in waiting</h2>
<p>That Trump should present himself as the candidate of law and order is darkly ironic, since his campaign has provided ample evidence that in office he would be a threat to both.</p>
<p>Even many on the right have questioned whether his proposal for a ban on immigration by Muslims is <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2015/12/08/is-trumps-proposed-ban-on-muslim-entry-constitutional/">constitutional</a>. He has threatened to <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/02/donald-trump-libel-laws-219866">use the law</a> to curb media organisations that subjected him to unfavourable reporting. He has <a href="http://gawker.com/trump-encouragers-ralliers-to-knock-the-crap-out-of-p-1756448417">encouraged</a> violence against protesters at his rallies and offered to pay the legal fees of those who commit it (not reassuring in someone who if elected would acquire the power of presidential pardon).</p>
<p>In his discussion of foreign policy, he has demonstrated at best ignorance and at worst active hostility to the institutions and arrangements that underpin the liberal world order. He has said that he would order those under his command to commit <a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-torture-waterboarding">torture</a> and <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/12/trump-on-isis-we-have-to-kill-their-families.html">war crimes</a> in pursuit of his security policy. He has, in effect, threatened to mount a <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/20/11719594/donald-trump-trade-wars">trade war</a> against China and others. </p>
<p>He has suggested that the US <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issues.html">might not</a> live up to its security commitments to Europe under NATO, while <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/07/vladimir_putin_has_a_plan_for_destroying_the_west_and_it_looks_a_lot_like.html">cultivating</a> mutual admiration with Vladimir Putin, Russia’s authoritarian strongman.</p>
<p>His discussion of the national debt and how he might seek to renegotiate it suggests a <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/6/11607464/trump-haircut-default-debt">dizzying ignorance</a> of the rudiments of how national and international economics work. </p>
<p>In short, if Trump wins, a major global crisis – whether economic or <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/7/21/12247074/donald-trump-nato-war">military</a>, and whether caused by design or by cluelessness – would become dramatically more likely.</p>
<h2>Fear and loathing</h2>
<p>One of the most disturbing themes of the convention was the sheer venom with which Trump Republicans attacked Hillary Clinton, whom they regard as not merely a political opponent but a criminal. And not just a petty one; in Trump’s phrase, she is guilty of “terrible, terrible crimes” that have been swept under the carpet by a corrupt FBI.</p>
<p>“Lock her up” was an enthusiastic chant, reappearing during Trump’s speech but originating in New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s audition for the job of Attorney General in a Trump administration, in which he <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/07/chris_christie_and_his_hateful_lock_her_up_mob.html">staged</a> a mock show-trial of Clinton for supposed crimes ranging from corruption to “bad judgment” skirting the edges of treason. </p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/7/19/12233458/republican-convention-chris-christie-hillary-clinton-trial">others</a> have <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/7/19/12232608/republican-convention-hillary-clinton-lock-her-up">noted</a>, demands for the jailing of opponents do not form a normal part of politics in a healthy democratic society, and for good reason. That they are now the stock-in-trade of a major party’s nominee speaks to a serious erosion of the US’s liberal democratic norms.</p>
<p>Experts are <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-coronation-week-what-does-a-presidential-convention-really-achieve-62522">uncertain</a> about just what has to happen at a convention to benefit the nominee, but this was an especially unedifying week, with enough unpleasant surprises and unforced embarrassments to give any professional political stage manager an ulcer. </p>
<p>And Trump, obliged to adhere more closely to a fixed script than in his free-associative primary-night rants, was at times strained and halting in his delivery. But we won’t know how it has been received by the public until the first post-convention polls come in.</p>
<p>Whatever they say, the most important point is abundantly clear: Trump is a terrifying candidate. </p>
<p>He is skilled in the dark arts of fear, agitation, and insecurity; he is duly marketing himself as an avenger of law and order to meet the demand he has inflamed. His constituency is shockingly large. But a Trump presidency would be a greater danger to American security than any threat it proposes to address – perhaps even an existential threat to American democracy itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Quinn has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>Anyone who still dismisses Donald Trump as a ludicrous amateur should now realise just how dangerous he is.Adam Quinn, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/627332016-07-22T09:36:10Z2016-07-22T09:36:10ZTrump’s Republican convention was farcical, vacuous and terrifying<p>After the shocking and unprecedented rise of Donald Trump, who overpowered 16 rivals to clinch the Republican presidential nomination, the Republican Party’s 2016 convention was destined to be quite unique. It didn’t disappoint.</p>
<p>Even his most ardent fans know that candidate Trump has zero political experience, and to win the White House, he will have to appeal to many Americans beyond the 45% of Republican primary voters he won in the first half of this year. For any normal candidate, the convention would be the perfect time to turn the ship around, to start looking statesmanlike and sounding serious. </p>
<p>Instead, the Twittersphere could hardly contain itself when it beheld The Donald’s <a href="http://www.wired.com/2016/07/trumps-rnc-entrance-ranks-smoke-machine-pantheon/">grandiose wrestler-style entrance</a> on Monday evening, complete with dramatic lighting and high-decibel music. Hillary Clinton aptly compared it to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2016/jul/19/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-entrance-wizard-of-oz-video">the Wizard of Oz</a>: “You know, lots of sound and fury, even a fog machine. But when you pulled back the curtain it was just Donald Trump, with nothing to offer to the American people.”</p>
<p>Trump deviated from the traditional convention formula by speaking in person before the night of his formal nomination, popping in to introduce his wife on the first evening. His third wife Melania should be a crucial asset to a campaign that has yet to win over most female voters. She delivered her 15-minute script without incident, and for the most part, the content was fairly bland. </p>
<p>But almost immediately after she left the stage, the internet was awash with video clips comparing her musings on family, truth and integrity to a remarkably similar, at times identical, passage from Michelle Obama’s rather more charismatic 2008 convention turn.</p>
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<p>The argument over how it happened took a series of bizarre turns, ending with a Trump-affiliated speechwriter <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/07/20/486758596/trump-speechwriter-accepts-responsibility-for-using-michelle-obamas-words">owning up to the mistake</a>. But was the plagiarism incident simply a case of carelessness, chutzpah or something else? </p>
<p>In any other campaign, this might simply have been a miscalculated attempt at the notorious Lynton Crosby tactic of “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/lynton-crosby-and-dead-cat-won-election-conservatives-labour-intellectually-lazy">throwing the dead cat on the table</a>”, deliberately creating a distraction which gets everyone so animated that they forget what it was they were originally supposed to be concentrating on. </p>
<p>That may be giving the chaotic and unsubtle Trump campaign rather too much strategic credit. But the plagiarism farrago did help distract from the fact that shockingly few of the Republicans’ many superstars (or even mid-ranking luminaries) had shown up to the convention at all. </p>
<h2>Steering clear</h2>
<p>The Bush family <a href="uk.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-bush-trump-rnc-convention-2016-5">were absent</a>, along with former nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain. The only other living Republican to have topped a presidential ticket who attended was Bob Dole, at 90-years-old too frail to make a speech (assuming he wanted to). </p>
<p>Even John Kasich, governor of the crucial battleground state where the convention was held, was nowhere to be seen, instead ending up in a row over whether Trump’s staff offered him a role as the “<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/20/politics/john-kasich-donald-trump-vice-president/index.html">most powerful vice-president in history</a>”. </p>
<p>Many others who did attend clearly haven’t quite drunk the Trump kool-Aid, but were obliged to appear regardless. A case in point is the house speaker and former vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan, a respected and very high-profile GOP figure who has vocally criticised Trump over the last year. </p>
<p>How to take the stage then, and fill 12 minutes of airtime, without sounding utterly hypocritical? By barely acknowledging Trump at all. Ryan made a <a href="http://time.com/4414128/republican-convention-paul-ryan-speech-transcript-video/">decent enough speech</a>, extolling the virtues of his party and its enduring ideas; he mentioned its nominee only twice. </p>
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<p>This atmosphere of mortified avoidance was the subtext for the whole week. That the second day’s news cycle was consumed with Melania Trump’s speech meant little attention was given to her odd prominence as the keynote speaker on a night whose theme was “Make America Safe Again”, topping a bill of actors and reality television stars. </p>
<p>To be sure, there were a couple of war veterans on the stage; Montana Representative <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kixXoLuNC4Q">Ryan Zinke</a> and Arkansas Senator <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/tom-cotton-republican-convention-2016-225466">Tom Cotton</a> both spoke, the latter mentioning the candidate only once. But notwithstanding Rudy Giuliani’s <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-republican-convention-2016-live-rudy-giuliana-s-firey-rnc-speech-you-1468902183-htmlstory.html">rant on the theme of terrorism</a>, by the end of the evening there was still little indication of how a president Trump would make America “safe”. </p>
<p>In fact, the only time in the past year that the candidate has offered any information regarding his foreign policy plans was in his April 2016 speech. Even then, his “America First” theme was heavy on criticism of the current administration. It was significantly lacking in any apparent insight or comprehension of the complexities and challenges that come with the role of being America’s commander-in-chief.</p>
<h2>Living in infamy</h2>
<p>On day two, Trump’s children provided some vital pathos, with 22-year-old <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/07/20/rnc-convention-tiffany-trump-entire-speech.cnn">Tiffany</a> sharing personal anecdotes about the comments her father wrote on school reports. Considering the farce of her stepmother’s appearance, the next generation of Trumps did well enough in their task to humanise the candidate as a family man. </p>
<p>The other speakers continued the slow drip of faint praise. <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2013/11/get-mitch-mcconnell-099376">Mitch McConnell</a>, the Senate majority leader and hardly a lily-livered compromiser himself, was booed by an audience unimpressed with his earlier lack of support for the candidate. </p>
<p>Probably the most vocal supporter of candidate Trump was New Jersey’s Chris Christie, who <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/wp/2016/03/02/chris-christies-wordless-screaming/">infamously endorsed Trump</a> after crashing out of the campaign himself. His <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH5bwvsIB30">convention speech</a> was delivered in the style of a court trial against Clinton, requiring full audience participation. It took little to rouse the crowd to chants of “guilty” and “<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/lock-her-up-hillary-clinton/492173/">lock her up</a>”. At best, it sounded like a raucous open-mic standup comedy night; at worst, a shameless effort at poisonous rabble-rousing. </p>
<p>And again, there was no hint of what a president Trump’s policies might be.</p>
<h2>Friends and enemies</h2>
<p>Beyond the high-profile no-shows by many Republican grandees and the early-onset loyalty of VP hopefuls such as Christie, there was a third way for those wondering how to navigate such treacherous waters. Enter Senator Ted Cruz, who delivered a speech without endorsing Trump at all. </p>
<p>Like <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/nelson-rockefellers-last-stand-112072">Nelson Rockefeller’s 1964 convention speech</a>, which was met with jeers when he criticised the uber-conservative nominee, <a href="http://prospect.org/article/trump-conservatism%E2%80%99s-old-guard-sees-new-goldwater">Barry Goldwater</a>, the crowd vociferously heckled Cruz with shouts of “vote for Trump” and “say it!” The telling difference between then and now is that until he dropped out of the primaries, Cruz <em>was</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ted-cruz-not-donald-trump-is-the-scariest-candidate-standing-56529">2016’s Barry Goldwater</a>, and he’s been one of the Senate’s most extreme hardliners. So if he cannot endorse the nominee, then the party has run out of political road.</p>
<p>By the third evening, the convention was running out of time for unity pleas from the podium. In a 72-hour period, the event had lurched from farce to pantomime to something really quite dark: a threatening and belligerent crowd screaming “traitor!” at one of their own. </p>
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<p>And then there was Trump’s chosen running mate, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, who faced the unenviable task of taking the stage after the Cruz debacle. </p>
<p>Certain holders of the vice-presidential role have apocryphally <a href="https://www.cah.utexas.edu/news/press_release.php?press=press_bucket">dismissed it</a> as “not worth a bucket of warm spit”, but now that Trump is formally the nominee and <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo">has a real chance</a> of winning in November, his choice of future vice-president suddenly seems genuinely meaningful.</p>
<p>To his credit, Pence presented himself as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mike-pence-is-the-anti-trump-62527">not-unhinged social and fiscal conservative</a> that he is. He eulogised candidate Trump as a tough, genuine, charismatic doer, and offered an extensive critique of the Obama administration, specifically the role that Clinton played in it. </p>
<p>And yet, apart from the briefest mention in his closing remarks of Trump’s plans to cut taxes, strengthen borders and grow the economy, there was once again, not a single policy specific. This went over well in the room – but it’s highly dangerous. </p>
<p>In a world all but consumed by violence and uncertainty, many American voters are furious, frightened, and desperate for an alternative to the status quo, and just as the Tea Party movement did, Trump has tapped into some very powerful forces that cannot be ignored. But all he offers is a megaphone for poisonous sentiments, rather than a remedy for the pain and confusion that stirs them. </p>
<p>Ever more akin to a bad reality TV show, the Trump campaign proved once again that it can make a truly deafening noise, but is utterly bereft of substance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62733/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clodagh Harrington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even by the standards of the Trump campaign, the Republican jamboree in Cleveland was a sorry spectacle.Clodagh Harrington, Senior Lecturer in Politics, De Montfort UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/627612016-07-22T04:19:21Z2016-07-22T04:19:21ZIn acceptance speech, Trump embraces role as hero of the forgotten<p>Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination for the presidency <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/full-transcript-donald-trump-nomination-acceptance-speech-at-rnc-225974#ixzz4F5LHIG38">in a speech</a> destined to be remembered by history as the “I am your voice” speech – a phrase that Trump repeated several times to tie together his themes of economic revitalization, military strength and government honesty. </p>
<p>As a scholar of American political rhetoric, I have <a href="http://www.tamupress.com/product/Rhetoric-of-Heroic-Expectations,7737.aspx">written</a> about how presidential candidates will often use campaign speeches to depict a nation in crisis, with themselves as the saviors. True to tradition, Trump’s speech contained a narrative of crisis and heroism. </p>
<p>He also fulfilled the expectations for a typical presidential nomination speech by arguing for a united party, explaining his political philosophy and appearing presidential. Of the many topics addressed in his wide ranging speech, he was at his best when he railed against government corruption. </p>
<h2>Make America isolationist again?</h2>
<p>The culmination of four days of speeches organized around the themes of keeping America safe, putting America to work, putting America first and making America one, Trump’s speech offered a new version of <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=812lbix0oH4C&pg=PA18#v=onepage&q&f=false">American Exceptionalism</a>. Since 1980 our understanding of American Exceptionalism has been framed by Ronald Reagan’s famous Republican Party acceptance <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=25970">speech</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Can we doubt that only a Divine Providence placed this land, this island of freedom, here as a refuge for all those people in the world who yearn to breathe freely.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump’s version was less tied to this sort of “divine” exceptionalism that’s welcoming of all people.</p>
<p>Nor was his American Exceptionalism grounded in America’s unique role as an “exemplar of liberty,” as this year’s <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/papers_pdf/117718.pdf">Republican Party platform</a> declared.</p>
<p>Instead, Trump’s American Exceptionalism was more isolationist and protectionist, devoting the first half of his speech to this theme under the guise of “America First.” </p>
<p>“Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo,” he said.</p>
<h2>Speaking for the neglected and ignored</h2>
<p>Consistent with his campaign so far, the speech was largely vague about his plans for accomplishing his campaign promises and specific about his criticisms of presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. His overarching criticism of Clinton is that she is “corrupt,” and rhetorically, his speech was most coherent in its critique of Clinton’s and government’s corruption. </p>
<p>His motivation for seeking office is to protect the “forgotten men and women”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Every day I wake up determined to deliver for the people I have met all across this nation that have been neglected, ignored, and abandoned.… These are the forgotten men and women of our country. People who work hard but no longer have a voice.” </p>
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<p>Perhaps drawing an analogy between the hardships of the Great Depression and the hardships of the Great Recession, Trump may have borrowed the “forgotten man” figure from Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s April 7, 1932 <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=88408">Fireside Chat</a> in which he explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“These unhappy times call for the building of plans that rest upon the forgotten, the unorganized but the indispensable units of economic power, for plans like those of 1917 that build from the bottom up and not from the top down, that put their faith once more in the forgotten man at the bottom of the economic pyramid.”</p>
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<p>Like FDR, Trump positioned himself as an empathetic leader as well as defender of the downtrodden: “I AM YOUR VOICE,” he boomed.</p>
<h2>Corrupted logic</h2>
<p>We don’t see the word “corruption” used frequently in presidential nomination addresses. To the best of my knowledge, only Al Smith and Dwight Eisenhower used the word. Smith used it to talk about Prohibition, and Eisenhower <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=75626&st=corruption&st1=">used</a> it to rail against the federal government: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Our aims – the aims of this Republican crusade – are clear: to sweep from office an administration which has fastened on every one of us the wastefulness, the arrogance and corruption in high places, the heavy burdens and anxieties which are the bitter fruit of a party too long in power.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Like Eisenhower, Trump argued that he is motivated to become president because our current politicians are too corrupt to help people: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I have embraced crying mothers who have lost their children because our politicians put their personal agendas before the national good. I have no patience for injustice, no tolerance for government incompetence, no sympathy for leaders who fail their citizens.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He then pointed his finger directly at the establishment.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Remember: all of the people telling you that you can’t have the country you want, are the same people telling you that I wouldn’t be standing here tonight. No longer can we rely on those elites in media, and politics, who will say anything to keep a rigged system in place.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far, so good: Trump has laid out his argument that there’s widespread corruption and we know who to blame for it. However, what makes Trump the right hero to save the nation from corruption? </p>
<p>He never really gives a coherent answer.</p>
<p>According to Trump, he’s the nominee even though corrupt media and pundits said that he would not be; therefore, Donald Trump has been right all along and the system is “rigged.” It’s an awkward logical construction that equates his detractors being wrong with their being corrupt – which, of course, isn’t the exact same thing. </p>
<p>What evidence does Trump give to support that he is the right hero for stopping corruption? Again, his speech makes an odd logical leap. Trump argues (with a wink) that because he once got involved in corrupt dealings himself, he knows how it works.</p>
<p>He doesn’t specify how or why he’s no longer corrupt, however, and the audience is left to wonder whether and if his “conversion” has taken place. “Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it,” he boasted. “I have seen firsthand how the system is rigged against our citizens, just like it was rigged against Bernie Sanders – he never had a chance.” </p>
<p>Despite reverting to some of his vague rhetoric, Trump did a much better job, stylistically, of performing his speech from the teleprompter than in the past. Only going off script occasionally, he delivered the speech with great energy, rousing the crowd to chant, at various points:</p>
<p>“USA! USA! USA!” </p>
<p>“Build a Wall!” </p>
<p>“Lock Her Up!”</p>
<p>To that last chant Trump responded, “Let’s defeat her in November.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Mercieca does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump appeared surprisingly presidential. According to a scholar of American political rhetoric, there were echoes of Roosevelt, Eisenhower and Reagan.Jennifer Mercieca, Associate Professor of Communication and Director of the Aggie Agora, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/625222016-07-19T12:43:19Z2016-07-19T12:43:19ZTrump’s coronation week: what does a presidential convention really achieve?<p>This year’s Republican National Convention kicked off with a bizarre day. Party delegates <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-republican-convention-2016-live-floor-fight-over-rules-erupts-at-1468874118-htmlstory.html">openly fought over the convention’s rules</a>, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani delivered a <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-republican-convention-2016-live-an-energized-rudy-giuliani-paints-a-1468895886-htmlstory.html">belligerent anti-crime broadside</a> under the banner “Make America Safe Again”, and Donald Trump’s wife Melania addressed the convention only to be accused of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36832095">plagiarising a speech by Michelle Obama</a>. </p>
<p>But then again, conventions have always been strange beasts, especially when viewed from abroad. Voters in many democracies are used to at least annual party conferences that combine various functions from policymaking to PR, from internal elections to training grounds for candidates and party workers. </p>
<p>In the US, however, the conventions come along once every four years and they are really only about one thing: nominating a presidential candidate.</p>
<p>Of course, by the time a convention comes along, the candidate has usually already won. It’s now very rare for the decision to be brokered at one of these events, and although there is often speculation about this, there is also pressure on those involved not to leave things to the convention floor. So the event acts as a shop window, both for the candidate and the other figures clustered around them. </p>
<p>The choice, for example, of who else will speak is often a good pointer to who is viewed as a rising star, or who has managed to negotiate that appearance. And supporting speakers are often chosen to highlight particular themes. So we can learn both from the contents and delivery of the speeches as well as from who is up there on stage.</p>
<p>While the political establishment in each party may well know a lot about a vice-presidential nominee, the vast majority of voters will not. This matters because a running mate is often chosen to “balance” the ticket and broaden its appeal, whether on ideology, age, gender, or religion. </p>
<p>Trump’s choice, Mike Pence, will need to establish himself as a known quantity with all those citizens outside his home state of Indiana, and the convention is his first and best chance. This means giving his audience a sense of himself as a person as well as a politician. </p>
<p>Sarah Palin, John McCain’s ill-fated 2008 running mate, is a good parallel here. </p>
<h2>Lipstick on a pitbull</h2>
<p>The McCain campaign surprised almost everyone when it <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/29/palin.republican.vp.candidate/">unveiled Palin</a> the day after Obama accepted his nomination. Alaska carries as little weight as any other state in presidential elections and is far removed from most Americans’ lives, so Palin had no national profile to speak of. </p>
<p>Even in the few days between the announcement and her speech, various <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/us/politics/02palin.html?_r=0">unflattering stories</a> emerged that threatened to make her toxic before she’d even been formally nominated. But when she spoke only days later, she silenced her critics (albeit briefly) with a remarkably assured and powerful performance for such a newcomer.</p>
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<p>Watching it again, its power is still striking. Confident and assured beyond her experience, Palin spent an inordinate amount of time talking about her family, with the camera focusing in on her children, husband and parents – a powerful tactic to quickly make herself seem familiar and sympathetic, a humble Alaska “hockey mom” with a son fighting in Iraq.</p>
<p>But the speech is best known for one of those memorable soundbites that find a permanent place in the political lexicon. There is but one difference, said Palin, between a hockey mom and a pit bull: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsGgTTIvnk">lipstick</a>. In one short phrase, she encapsulated a highly effective brand: a tough, protective mother just like millions all over the US, one who just happened to be a competent and effective governor.</p>
<p>Clearly Mike Pence can’t claim the cachet of a hockey mom. But when he speaks on July 20, he will need to find his own way to become relatable, as well as to convey some of those qualities which Trump’s campaign will want to highlight. Besides his religious and social conservative credentials – things for which Trump is <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/7/18/12212518/5-awkward-moments-60-minutes-trump-pence">hardly noted</a> – his strong suit will be competence and executive experience.</p>
<p>While Trump has had trouble attracting party heavyweights to Cleveland, many of the other speakers at conventions are rising stars being offered one of their earliest national platforms. Some have gone on to run for president and to win; there are few better examples than Barack Obama, whose remarkable 2004 speech launched him as a national figure. </p>
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<p>Bill Clinton, on the other hand, was a rising star when he was chosen to nominate Michael Dukakis in 1988, but the speech he gave is remembered mostly for the audience’s audible relief when he uttered the words “in closing”. </p>
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<p>Ultimately, conventions are chances for the campaigns and their principals to test whether their brand will work in the autumn campaign – massive market research exercises where themes, phrases, and people are road-tested and focus-grouped for the intense autumn sprint. </p>
<p>In this most unpredictable of election years, it’ll be fascinating to see what survives the jamborees in Cleveland and Philadelphia and makes it through to election night in November.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats </span></em></p>With prospective first lady Melania Trump accused of plagiarising Michelle Obama, the Republicans are off to a predictably rocky start.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Public Relations and Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/623832016-07-18T12:04:26Z2016-07-18T12:04:26ZBeyond The Donald: four things to watch at the Republican Convention<p>In just a few days’ time, businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump will address the <a href="http://convention.gop/">Republican National Convention</a> in Cleveland, Ohio, as its nominee for the 2016 presidential election.</p>
<p>It will be an extraordinary moment of political theatre. Trump will address a Republican establishment that never wanted him to succeed and many GOP voters who deeply dislike him. And yet, Trump’s speech won’t be the most important scene to watch this week. It may not even be in the top four.</p>
<p>Given Trump’s extraordinary march to the nomination the Republican elite may not back him in November, even though he is running strong against Hillary Clinton in several national polls.</p>
<p>Even if they really think their nominee is electable, they could fear that his unpredictable, narcissistic, and often destructive behaviour is just too risky. Instead, the GOP’s politicians and strategists could decide to let the White House go and focus on keeping their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, both of which the “Trump effect” has <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-gop-house-majority-jeopardy-221004">put in danger</a>.</p>
<p>So for anyone on Trumpwatch, here’s what we know so far.</p>
<h2>#1: The speakers</h2>
<p>One key document is already out in the open: most of the Republicans’ leading politicians are <a href="http://www.standard.net/National/2016/07/14/The-very-odd-list-of-speakers-at-the-Republican-National-Convention.html">staying as far away from Trump as they can</a>, including their last two presidential <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-bush-trump-rnc-convention-2016-5">nominees</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/no-gop-convention-george-bush-222850">last two living presidents</a>. There will be as many Trumps speaking (Donald, his wife Melania, and his children Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka, and Tiffany) as there will be senators.</p>
<p>Four of the six senators speaking are from the right wing of the party. Only Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, the Republicans’ leader in the senate, and West Virginia’s Shelley Moore Capito are anywhere near the political centre (and only in a relative sense); Iowa’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9Y24MFOfFU">hog-castrating</a> <a href="http://video.foxnews.com/v/5039641138001/sen-joni-ernst-previews-her-rnc-speech/">Joni Ernst</a>, Texas’s <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/287785-cruz-steps-into-spotlight-for-trump">Ted Cruz</a>, Alabama’s <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/jeff-sessions-gop-trump-223711">Jeff Sessions</a>, and Arkansas’s <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/06/senator-tom-cotton-wants-to-keep-kids-in-jail.html">Tom Cotton</a> are of a decidedly different hardline bent.</p>
<p>Only seven of the Republicans’ 247 representatives in the house will take the podium. Of the GOP’s 31 governors, only four will be seen, and two of them – New Jersey’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/wp/2016/03/02/chris-christies-wordless-screaming/">Chris Christie</a> and Oklahoma’s <a href="http://www.koco.com/news/gov-mary-fallin-endorses-trumps-presidential-bid-welcomes-vp-talk/39378324">Mary Fallin</a> – were in contention to be Trump’s vice-presidential nominee though that job <a href="https://theconversation.com/mike-pence-is-the-anti-trump-62527">now falls</a> to Indiana governor, Mike Pence.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://fox8.com/2016/07/17/republican-national-convention-program-schedule-announced/">list of speakers</a> is dominated not by party movers and shakers, but by businessmen and celebrities. There’s oilman Harold Hamm, casino owner Phil Ruffin, and Paypal founder Peter Thiel. The head of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-and-rise-of-ultimate-fighting-and-why-boxing-is-now-so-passe-55910">Ultimate Fighting Championship</a>, Dana White, will offer his wisdom, as will former underwear model and soap opera star Antonio Sabàto Jr, and golfer and Sports Illustrated swimsuit model Natalie Gulbis.</p>
<p>There will also be a renewed attempt to blame Clinton for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/13-hours-what-actually-happened-at-the-us-consulate-in-benghazi-53832">deadly attack in Benghazi, Libya</a> in September 2012, with two of the survivors and the mother of one of the victims set to address the delegates.</p>
<p>All of this may feed into Trump’s so far successful narrative of a campaign appealing beyond the establishment to the American people, but it bodes ill for the party as it heads into the fight for the White House.</p>
<h2>#2: The platform</h2>
<p>Normally few beyond committed activists bother to read party platforms. Who recalls that in 2012 <a href="https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/2012GOPPlatform.pdf">the Republican platform</a> (or manifesto) called the judiciary’s consideration of same-sex marriage “an assault on the foundations of our society”?</p>
<p>However, this year the document will be an important signpost both for the Trump campaign and for the future of the GOP.</p>
<p>On one level, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/us/politics/republican-convention-issues.html?_r=0">the draft 2016</a> statement of the party’s platform offers some common ground with Trumpisms. There is the loud but vague declaration of a campaign “to destroy ISIS [Islamic State]”. There is no mention of the <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/12/donald-trump/trump-says-china-will-take-advantage-trans-pacific/">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a>, the controversial trade deal supported by many GOP leaders but opposed by Trump. And, yes, there is a reference to Trump’s notorious proposal to divide the US from Mexico with a wall.</p>
<p>But what’s really striking is how much of the platform goes beyond Trump – and indeed, beyond most of America. </p>
<p>The draft document swings <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/education/wp/2016/07/14/gop-platform-encourages-teaching-about-the-bible-in-public-schools/">even harder to the right</a> than its <a href="https://www.gop.com/platform/">2012 predecessor</a>. Proclaiming that “man-made law must be consistent with God-given, natural rights”, the text explicitly objects to gay, lesbian, and transgender rights. Challenging the US constitution and the Supreme Court, it calls for the teaching of the Bible in public schools because it is “indispensable for the development of an educated citizenry”. It declares that “natural marriage” between a man and a woman is most likely to result in offspring who do not become drug-addicted or otherwise damaged.</p>
<p>The platform is so strident that a minority of moderates are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/12/republican-national-convention-lgbt-rights-donald-trump">openly considering challenges to it</a> on the convention floor. </p>
<p>That threat will probably be neutered, but the platform still puts the party at risk of alienating the mass of voters in the centre of the US political spectrum.</p>
<h2>#3: The running mate</h2>
<p>Given the sheer size of Trump’s distended personality, it may be hard to believe that his running mate will get in a word, let alone be significant in the presidential race. However, given the tension between The Donald and The GOP, Governor Mike Pence takes on a significant challenge.</p>
<p>Known as a “Christian conservative”, Pence could appeal to parts of the Republican right who’ve so far been sceptical of Trump’s ill-defined, “moderate” views on social issues (<a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mike-pence-may-quell-anti-abortion-movement-s-fears-about-n609646">not least abortion</a>). At the same time, Pence is a much quieter and more stable politician than some of the party’s leading firebrands – think of this year’s contender <a href="https://theconversation.com/ted-cruz-not-donald-trump-is-the-scariest-candidate-standing-56529">Ted Cruz</a>, or former house speaker and 2012 runner <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/newt-gingrich-donald-trump-nice-attack-vp-muslim-deportation-shariah-a7138886.html">Newt Gingrich</a>, who lost out in the contest to become Trump’s running mate.</p>
<p>But will that matter? In <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mike-pence-would-be-a-really-conservative-and-mostly-unknown-vp-pick/">an autumn 2015 survey of GOP voters</a>, Pence was last in name recognition out of 18 possible presidential candidates. </p>
<p>That may have suited Trump, given his aversion to sharing attention with anyone. But it might not suit those in the GOP and beyond who would like a stronger politician and personality to offset some of The Donald’s perceived disadvantages.</p>
<p>So Pence will take the stage with a task far greater than Trump’s: to be confident enough to reassure the party establishment, its delegates, and those who are uncertain at home, and at the same time to avoid chagrining Trump by stealing the limelight.</p>
<h2>#4: The delegates</h2>
<p>The 2,472 delegates who formally nominate the candidates are usually just extras in the convention show, providing the colour and the noise for the politics.</p>
<p>This year, however, they’re taking on a much more pivotal role. It’s not just a question of whether they cheer Trump’s speech, but how they cheer it – and how they look while doing so.</p>
<p>With Trump’s weakness among African American voters (<a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/07/trumps-support-among-blacks-new-low">polls this week</a> had him losing to Clinton by 91% to 0% (yes, zero) among them in Pennsylvania and by 88% to 0% in Ohio) the TV cameras will be scanning the convention floor for any black faces. The same goes for Hispanic Americans; there’ll probably be bonus points for spotting a gay, lesbian or transgender delegate.</p>
<p>And beyond diversity, there will be an imperative to err on the side of positivity. Trump’s speeches and rallies are coloured by poisonous animosity towards perceived enemies, both those in the wider world and any believed to be in the room where he’s speaking. The candidate has <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-violence_us_56e1f16fe4b0b25c91815913">encouraged harassment</a>, and there have been physical confrontations.</p>
<p>Any such scenes will not go down well with voters mulling who to back in November. So the convention will have to show that Trump’s declaration that he is a “unifier” – a claim as yet backed up with almost zero evidence – can convince people beyond the hall in Cleveland and across the rest of the US.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a year of trying to bring him down, the Republican Party will rally behind Donald Trump this week – sort of.Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/620722016-07-15T02:28:46Z2016-07-15T02:28:46ZWill Trump use the convention to broadcast a more moderate image?<p>Most political candidates spend an enormous amount of time and energy crafting campaign images. When it comes to judging politicians, what you see is at least as important as what you hear. The pictures that appear on screen, especially the people who surround a candidate, can have a powerful impact on voters.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10584609.2012.722174?journalCode=upcp20">In my work on campaign ad imagery</a>, I found that viewers saw the people pictured in a candidate’s ad as a cue for what kind of people that candidate supported.</p>
<p>For example, candidates featuring African-Americans were more likely to be seen as supportive of affirmative action. Candidates who pictured blue-collar workers were more likely to be seen as supportive of raising the minimum wage. In fact, the impact of the image was just as strong as if the candidate had explicitly come out in favor of these causes. Moreover, viewers extrapolated a candidate’s ideology based on the groups pictured. If the candidate pictured groups generally viewed as liberal, like African-Americans, then he was perceived as more liberal. If she pictured groups generally viewed as conservative, like farmers, then she was perceived as more conservative.</p>
<p>While political ads can have a large cumulative impact, perhaps no single event garners more attention than a national political convention. These made-for-TV events are an excellent opportunity for a candidate to shape his or her image. </p>
<h2>Lessons from conventions past</h2>
<p>Tasha Philpot of the University of Texas has done <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FB%3APOBE.0000043455.25490.a9">excellent</a> <a href="http://www.press.umich.edu/189552/race_republicans_and_the_return_of_the_party_of_lincoln">work</a> on how the Republican Party has managed its image on racial issues. Her research details the national convention strategy used by the George W. Bush campaign and the GOP, which put African-Americans in prominent positions during the 2000 and 2004 conventions in order to emphasize the party’s racial diversity. Because of the importance of race in American politics and <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/4385.html">the link</a> between African-Americans and liberalism, emphasizing racial diversity also helped the Bush campaign project an image of ideological moderation. </p>
<p>Philpot found that viewers who watched the conventions came away thinking that the GOP had moderated its positions on racial issues and moved left toward the ideological center, even though racial issues were rarely discussed at either convention. This effect was especially pronounced among white viewers, while African-Americans were less likely to be influenced. In short, the GOP pictured African-Americans at the convention in order to appeal to moderate white voters.</p>
<p>Campaign imagery is effective precisely because it doesn’t explicitly engage the viewer in the same way as political speech. Voters often use their own preconceptions, particularly those driven by partisanship, to tune out political messages. Rather than passively accept information, viewers form mental arguments against political messages they disagree with, and may even <a href="http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/56/1/87.abstract">misremember</a> political messages in favor of their own <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111381">preexisting views of parties</a>.</p>
<p>However, subtle image cues can bypass voters’ <a href="http://www.springer.com/us/book/9781461293781">cognitive processes and biases</a>. An African-American standing in the background of a campaign ad, or even an African-American gospel choir singing the national anthem at a convention, isn’t particularly noteworthy and does not draw much of the viewer’s attention. Viewers see an image and automatically associate it with a concept rather than actually taking the time and effort to think carefully about an image and what it means. The image can leave an impression on the viewer precisely because it isn’t noteworthy.</p>
<p>GOP efforts at projecting diversity continued in 2012, where the party attempted to put <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/31/latino-rnc-speakers-compare-previous-conventions_n_1846354.html">Latino faces on screen</a> in prominent spots on the program. However, those efforts made little difference in an election year where voters made decisions very early and often did so based solely on <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10350.html">partisanship</a>. In addition, subtle image cues were undercut by the more memorable image of Clint Eastwood <a href="http://abs.sagepub.com/content/57/12/1688.short">yelling at an empty chair</a>.</p>
<h2>Following Bush’s lead</h2>
<p>So what will a Donald Trump convention look like? For the upcoming GOP convention, Trump could follow the path laid out by George W. Bush. It would seem obvious that Trump should use racial imagery at the GOP convention to try and repair his image. His calls for a ban on Muslims as well as his attacks on a Hispanic federal judge have made it difficult for Trump to solidify Republican voters, let alone reach out to independents. Even other <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/07/politics/paul-ryan-donald-trump-racist-comment/">Republican</a> <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/06/politics/republicans-donald-trump-judge-racism/">leaders</a> have publicly criticized Trump for his overt racism.</p>
<p>Trump’s campaign rhetoric has taken a toll on his public standing. There has never been a more <a href="http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188936/trump-negative-image.aspx">unpopular</a> GOP nominee at this stage of the campaign, and his support among traditional Republican voters is slipping. For example, Republican candidates usually win college educated whites by comfortable margins, but Trump <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-become-the-first-republican-in-60-years-to-lose-white-college-graduates/">currently trails</a> among these voters. Trump is facing a particularly large gender gap, with women overwhelmingly opposed to his <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_geoffrey_skelley/venus_vs_mars_a_record_setting_gender_gap">candidacy</a>. Just as Bush used African-Americans to project moderation, Trump could make racial imagery a key component of his convention and might win over voters without actually moderating any of his views. This is a particularly good strategy with female voters, who often prefer candidates with moderate positions on racial <a href="http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/68/4/512">issues.</a></p>
<h2>Awkward and overt</h2>
<p>However, it is not clear that Trump is actually capable of engaging in that strategy. He seems loathe to back down from even his most obvious mistakes and his use of images of racial diversity has been clumsy, to say the least. At a recent campaign rally Trump pointed out an African-American audience member as proof of his appeal to black voters, even referring to him as <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/03/politics/donald-trump-african-american/">“my African-American.”</a></p>
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<p>This kind of explicit, awkward appeal is unlikely to be successful. In Philpot’s work, and in my own, racial imagery was effective precisely because the candidates did not draw attention to it. Trump’s inability to be subtle may make it impossible for him to win over moderate voters.</p>
<p>Finally, there is the possibility of violence at the convention. The host city of <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/rnc-2016/index.ssf/2016/07/republican_national_convention_8.html">Cleveland</a> is preparing for protests, counterprotests and mass violence. Violent clashes would be a disaster for the Trump campaign. Many voters already view Trump as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-new-poll-support-for-trump-plunges-giving-clinton-a-double-digit-lead/2016/06/25/0565bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html">unqualified for the presidency and dangerous</a>. Pictures of violence, especially violence between angry whites and minorities, could cement that image in the public’s mind.</p>
<p>The candidate has two paths forward. Trump could continue as he has, ignoring the importance of campaign imagery and appealing to moderates, and remain a long shot for the White House. Or, the candidate could learn from his past mistakes and put on a typical convention. He could use racial imagery within the convention to subtly repair his image. Hillary Clinton is not a <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating">popular or well-liked candidate,</a> and if Trump could merely come across as reasonable and somewhat moderate he could still pose a strong challenge in November. Either way, his choices at the convention could direct the course of the general election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathaniel Swigger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>These made-for-TV events are an excellent opportunity for a candidate to shape his or her image. A subtle approach works best. That could be an issue for Trump.Nathaniel Swigger, Associate Professor of Political Science, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/624032016-07-14T03:29:38Z2016-07-14T03:29:38ZWill Cleveland get an economic boost from Trump’s GOP coronation?<p>The Republican National Convention is coming to Cleveland, and <a href="http://www.rethinkcleveland.org/Media-Center/News/Cleveland-Rocks-the-GOP-Convention-Contest.aspx">boosters</a> are cheering the <a href="https://www.2016cle.com/rnc-by-the-numbers">millions of dollars</a> it will bring to northeast Ohio’s businesses.</p>
<p>There are lots of impact studies of previous Republican and Democratic nominating conventions. Each seems to produce more eye-popping figures than the last. However, some <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/40326166">academics</a> and <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/the-economic-oomph-from-big-events-1159/">journalists</a> suggest these conventions really have no impact on the local economy. </p>
<p>Which is the true story?</p>
<h2>The official impact</h2>
<p>The host committee in Cleveland for 2016 <a href="https://www.2016cle.com/rnc-by-the-numbers">estimates the current convention</a> will result in 50,000 visitors who will spend a total of US$200 million. </p>
<p>They base this figure on the official analysis of the last Republican convention, which was held in Tampa Bay in 2012. Organizers claimed this convention had a <a href="http://www.tampagov.net/sites/default/files/public-affairs/files/20130820_RNCEconomicImpactReport_Kench.pdf">total economic impact</a> of over $400 million. This was more than double the almost <a href="http://www.saintpaulfoundation.org/_asset/jh9x9t/news_09022009_convention-impact-report.pdf">$170 million</a> estimated as the official impact of the previous 2008 convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul. The Tampa Bay convention estimates are high because roughly half the spending was for infrastructure improvements that were not needed for the other conventions.</p>
<p>It is not just Republican conventions that produce huge figures. Democratic conventions are reputed to have just as big an influence, if not more. The hoopla surrounding the upcoming 2016 Democratic convention in Philadelphia claims it will bring in <a href="http://www1.villanova.edu/content/dam/villanova/VSB/publications/David%20Fiorenza%20DNC%20Report%202016_final.pdf">$350 million</a>, which leaves Cleveland’s $200 million figure looking almost paltry.</p>
<p>Official post-mortems of the 2012 Democratic convention in Charlotte stated this event <a href="http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/Newsroom/newsarchive/Documents/DNC%20Economic%20Impact%20Study%20Fact%20Sheet%20Final.pdf">injected $164 million</a> into the local economy, while the 2008 convention in Denver, Colorado, officially resulted in a <a href="https://www.gwu.edu/%7Eaction/2008/chrnconv08/denverimpact.pdf">$266 million windfall</a>.</p>
<p>Together the six nominating conventions held from 2008 to 2016 appear to have generated a whopping $1.5 billion for their host cities.</p>
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<h2>Is there really an impact?</h2>
<p>There is reason, however, to suspect the benefits of political conventions are overstated, especially since the “official” post-mortems are paid for by the organizers. </p>
<p>Research by economists <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/40326166">Robert Baade, Robert Baumann and Victor Matheson</a>, which looked at the impact of every convention held from 1970 to 2004, found no discernible impact. Research done by <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517712000568">Brian Mills and Mark Rosentraub</a> at the University of Michigan points out four reasons why the large impacts touted by convention organizers are actually exaggerated.</p>
<p>First, visitors and <a href="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/cleveland-2016-republican-convention-crowds-transit">locals that normally come</a> to the city during the convention are displaced by delegates, offsetting the positive impact. Conventions result in <a href="https://www.2016cle.com/press-releases/security-and-traffic-restrictions">street closures and detours</a> to ensure security. </p>
<p>In addition, many conventions are marred by protests. The <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/protests-at-democratic-national-convention-in-chicago">Democratic convention in Chicago during 1968</a> was the scene of large riots. These cause people to want to stay away. In 2004, I lived quite close to the Democratic convention. To avoid the chaos, my family and I left on vacation until the craziness was over. When locals and other visitors avoid a city because of a convention, spending is lost.</p>
<p>Second, boosters report the total spending by visitors. However, the local impact is much less since a large part of that spending is based on items imported from outside the local area. For example, if a delegate in Cleveland goes into a restaurant and orders $50 of steak and wine, that entire amount goes into the impact statement. However, Cleveland has no cattle ranches and only one <a href="http://chateauhough.org/">tiny winery</a>. If the steak the delegate eats was imported from Chicago and the wine being drunk comes from California, the true local impact is $50 minus the cost of the beef and alcohol.</p>
<p>Third, convention organizers often claim that they boost local employment temporarily. Some of that temporary employment, however, is by workers who come from <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/sex-pros-ready-party-article-1.629624">outside the region</a> and whose spending and pay will go back outside the region once the convention ends. For example, media specialists, high-level political operatives and even extra waiters who don’t live in Cleveland, but are brought in for the convention, are counted in the total event’s expenditure. However, these people will be paid after the convention is over and typically use this pay elsewhere.</p>
<p>Fourth, spending by locals who don’t flee during the convention is often included in the boosters’ figures. For example, conventions bring in lots of local volunteers. Cleveland is hoping for <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/rnc-2016/index.ssf/2016/05/republican_national_convention_3.html">8,000 people to help out for free</a>. These volunteers buy lunches, take taxis and spend money, all of which is counted by the boosters. Much of this money, however, would likely been spent anyway in the local economy.</p>
<p>A fifth point, not on <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517712000568">Mills and Rosentraub</a>’s list, is that the boosters ignore the effects of taxes in their calculations. These taxes significantly reduce the convention’s overall benefit. For example, let’s assume organizers highlight that income in the local area rose by an extra $100 million. They are overlooking the fact that both the federal and state government will take a share of that new money away in taxes.</p>
<h2>Can we see an impact?</h2>
<p>One method of determining which side is correct is to look at official sales figures collected by tax officials. </p>
<p>Hotels, restaurants, florists, caterers and transportation companies are all required to tell state officials exactly how much they sold. This facilitates tax collection. The last Republican convention held in Tampa Bay provides a straightforward method of checking the economic impact since the state of Florida maintains a <a href="http://dor.myflorida.com/taxes/Pages/colls_from_7_2003.aspx">website</a> that shows monthly sales by category and county.</p>
<p>The below graph shows total monthly sales in <a href="http://geology.com/county-map/florida.shtml">Hillsborough and Pinellas</a> counties, which are the two areas comprising Tampa Bay. The graph is centered on August 2012, the date of the last Republican convention, which boosters claimed brought in over $400 million. Visually, however, Florida’s Department of Revenue shows no boost in actual spending.</p>
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<h2>Why do cities fight to hold a convention?</h2>
<p>If there is no <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">economic benefit</a>, why do cities fight each other to hold conventions? </p>
<p>In my mind the answer is simple. While there is no overall impact, select groups clearly profit. Local municipal employees, like the police, rack up tremendous amounts of overtime. <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2016/05/arbitrator_says_cleveland_cant.html">Cleveland’s 150 most senior police officers</a> will all be paid time and a half during the week of the convention. Local politicians are feted on national television, which boosts their political profile and increases their chances for reelection, if all goes smoothly.</p>
<p>In addition to benefiting specific groups, there is a clear publicity advantage. Convention news coverage focuses on more than just the political speeches. The key <a href="https://www.2016cle.com/things-to-do/more-things-to-do/25-free-things-to-do-in-cle">tourist attractions</a>, <a href="https://youtu.be/KpkXL70G6kM">regional specialties</a> and local facilities are highlighted for television viewers, which can increase tourism in the long run.</p>
<p>Overall, I believe there is a benefit for holding a convention, but it is not the financial benefit coming from large numbers of visitors renting hotel rooms, eating in restaurants, drinking in bars and enjoying other forms of <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5629167">entertainment</a>. Instead, what this year’s organizers will get is a brief period of time when the eyes of the world are focused on Cleveland. Good luck, Cleveland, during your moment in the spotlight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Republicans and Democrats alike claim their conventions provide a big economic boost to their host cities. What’s the evidence say?Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.