tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/alan-finkel-22028/articlesAlan Finkel – The Conversation2023-12-03T19:16:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190042023-12-03T19:16:52Z2023-12-03T19:16:52ZHyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support<p>If you listen to the dreamers, hydrogen is the magical <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen">fuel of the future</a> that can replace everything from the petrol in your car to the coal in a steelworks.</p>
<p><a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/2022-state-hydrogen-report-reinforces-australias-green-hydrogen-powerhouse-potential">Hype around hydrogen</a> has been building in Australia since at least 2018. Every <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/western-australian-renewable-hydrogen-strategy-and-roadmap">government</a> has a <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/government-strategies-and-frameworks/nsw-hydrogen-strategy">hydrogen strategy</a>. Hydrogen has been promoted as a <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/australias-green-hydrogen-hour-has-arrived">replacement for our coal and gas exports</a>, and even <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/australias-major-parties-climate-action-policy-2022/">our major parties agree</a> on its role in Australia’s energy transition.</p>
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<p>In my previous job as a federal public servant, I worked with the then Chief Scientist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Finkel">Alan Finkel</a> and state and territory governments to develop Australia’s first <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">National Hydrogen Strategy</a>.</p>
<p>We were excited by hydrogen’s seemingly endless possibilities, from replacing natural gas in homes to fuelling cars and trains, to an export industry to rival liquid natural gas. The strategy acknowledged considerable uncertainty around these potential uses, but urged governments to seize the opportunities.</p>
<h2>High costs and hard times for hydrogen</h2>
<p>Since we published the strategy in 2019, the world has changed. The <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/recovery-plan-europe_en">European Union’s stimulus spending</a> in response to the pandemic shifted the focus of industry development from Asia to Europe. Last year the passage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">US Inflation Reduction Act</a> began pumping subsidies into industry development in the United States, too.</p>
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<p>We also know a lot more about the logistics of hydrogen supply chains. Earlier hydrogen policy – such as <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/taylor-sets-a-target-for-hydrogen-under-2-20200226-p544jo">Australia’s “H2 under $2” target</a>, set in 2020 – assumed demand would magically appear when hydrogen’s production price reached parity with fossil fuels.</p>
<p>This assumption ignored the high costs of moving hydrogen from point of production to point of use, storing it, and switching to new assets that can use it.</p>
<p>Today we know more about where hydrogen might be used to decarbonise the economy. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-want-industry-and-theyd-like-it-green-steel-is-the-place-to-start-137999">2020 Grattan Institute report</a> found that rather than exporting hydrogen, Australia had an opportunity to use it to value-add to Australia’s largest export – iron ore.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">Grattan Institute’s work also showed</a> that using hydrogen to replace gas in Australian homes was a poor economic choice. Worldwide, a consensus is emerging that switching to green electricity is the most economic way to reduce most energy-related emissions. Hydrogen will rarely be the cheapest option.</p>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Australia is already struggling</a> with the scale and pace of its energy transition. The scale of construction <a href="https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Net-Zero-Australia-final-results-launch-event-presentation-19-April-23.pdf">required to be a green energy superpower</a> looks well out of reach. It’s time to bring Australia’s hydrogen dreams down to earth.</p>
<h2>Three potential hydrogen industries</h2>
<p>Grattan Institute’s latest report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/hydrogen-hype-hope-or-hard-work/">Hydrogen: hype, hope, or hard work</a>? identifies three hydrogen uses – ammonia manufacturing, high-temperature alumina processing - and green iron production – that Australian governments should focus on. </p>
<p>Hydrogen is either the only or the most promising technical option to decarbonise these commodities. They would be large users of hydrogen, capable of producing viable export industries built on a supply chain big enough to lower costs.</p>
<p>But for all three, the cost of using hydrogen instead of conventional fossil fuel is prohibitively high. Unless this cost gap is closed, these industries won’t have a future in Australia. If governments want them as part of their “<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">green superpower</a>” vision, they need to act.</p>
<p>A big share of the cost of hydrogen comes from the cost of the electricity used to make it. So above all, governments must continue to transform Australia’s electricity sector to push down power prices. Without cheap renewable electricity, our hydrogen dreams and green superpower ambitions disappear.</p>
<h2>The need for industry policy</h2>
<p>Even with lower electricity costs, making <a href="https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/climate-change-science-solutions/climate-science-solutions-hydrogen-ammonia.pdf">ammonia</a>, <a href="https://arena.gov.au/news/renewable-hydrogen-could-reduce-emissions-in-alumina-refining/">alumina</a> and <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm">iron</a> from hydrogen is still likely to be very expensive.</p>
<p>This cost can be reduced in two ways. First, make the fossil fuel alternative more expensive. The <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reporting/national-greenhouse-energy-reporting-scheme/safeguard-mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20is%20the,gas%20emissions%20of%20these%20facilities.">Safeguard Mechanism</a> puts a price on Australia’s industrial emissions, but it’s not enough to make hydrogen an economic alternative.</p>
<p>Second, use <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/why-australia-needs-a-21st-century-industry-policy/">industry policy</a> to give these industries a financial leg-up, rather than leaving everything to market forces.</p>
<p>Unlike the EU and the US, though, Australia is a small economy, with little fiscal capacity to undertake industry policy. Instead of introducing US-style tax credits, which could quickly drain treasury coffers, Australia should be strategic with industry policy, building industries with a long-term, subsidy-free future.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-just-transition-to-net-zero-and-why-is-australia-struggling-to-get-there-218706">What is a 'just' transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?</a>
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<p>Much of the extra cost to create these industries comes from the high cost of production, rather than the initial capital expenditure. Investors will be reluctant to lend to ammonia, alumina, and steel companies to help them make a product that is more expensive than competitors.</p>
<p>To help green commodity producers to grow and become competitive while using hydrogen is expensive, the government should underwrite their returns by introducing “<a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/exclusive-european-commission-is-considering-contracts-for-difference-for-green-hydrogen-offtakers/2-1-1561729">contracts-for-difference</a>”. These instruments pay producers for the gap between their higher costs and the price the market is willing to pay. As their costs fall so does government support, leaving behind a plant producing a low-to-zero emissions product that has buyers.</p>
<h2>We can’t wait</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/ongoing/trade-assistance/2021-22/tar-2021-22.pdf">It’s tempting to say costs will come down with time, or that governments in the US and EU can do this work of reducing costs</a>. But a sitting-back approach has a big opportunity cost for Australia. Industrial supply chains are geographically “sticky” – once capital has been invested in assets at one end of the chain, these assets don’t tend to move.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<p>If Australia waits for the US and the EU to drive down costs, we are allowing them to anchor sticky supply chains in their economies. In a world without subsidies, Australia might have a comparative advantage over some of these places, but once the supply chain has stuck in place, it is unlikely to move here to seize that advantage.</p>
<p>Deployment, not time, is what drives costs down. If Australian industry doesn’t start using hydrogen while it’s expensive, it won’t have the option to use hydrogen cheaply in the future. It’s time to stop dreaming and start the hard work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Reeve is a former public servant. She led the team which developed the Australian Government’s 2019 national hydrogen strategy. She has no financial interest in companies relevant to this article. Grattan Institute discloses all its donors on its website.</span></em></p>Australian governments have invested a lot of hope in hydrogen to help drive the net zero transition, but concrete policies are urgently needed or we will lose our hydrogen advantage to other nations.Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2062772023-06-26T20:05:34Z2023-06-26T20:05:34ZWe need to decarbonise our electricity supply, and quickly – Alan Finkel shows how green energy can be a reality, and bring economic benefits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533317/original/file-20230621-18-971h6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5156%2C3411&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrey Metelev/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We use energy in everything we do, but few of us understand it properly. Much of the time this doesn’t matter. We can flick a light switch or turn the ignition key in a car, knowing the technology will work whether we understand it or not. Even something as simple as the distinction between alternating current and direct current is a mystery to most people without a scientific education.</p>
<p>But thanks to climate change, we can no longer be comfortably ignorant. A better understanding of energy systems is urgently needed if we are to transform those systems successfully. </p>
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<p><em>Review: Powering Up: Unleashing the Clean Supply Energy Chain – Alan Finkel (Black Inc.)</em></p>
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<p>The science of climate change is complex – too complex for any individual to comprehend completely. It encompasses physics, chemistry, time-series statistics and computer modelling, among many other issues. But by now, thanks to the work of communicators like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, most of us understand the basics.</p>
<p>The exception to this general understanding is the shrinking group of self-described “sceptics”, determined not to understand. Members of this group pride themselves on “doing their own research”. This catchphrase does not mean “undertaking years of intensive training in science and research methods, then applying it to the study of complex problems”, but rather “using Google to find talking points that confirm my prior beliefs”.</p>
<p>The central findings of climate research can be simply summarised. Over the course of the 20th century, we used more and more energy, the great majority of it derived from burning carbon-based fuels – oil, coal and natural (methane) gas. The result has been a buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, trapping more of the Sun’s heat and radiating less back to outer space. </p>
<p>This process has already caused the global climate to heat up, with some disastrous results, such as wildfires and heatwaves. Global heating will inevitably continue, as will climate-related disasters. If we are to avoid truly catastrophic damage, we need a rapid transition to carbon-free sources of energy for electricity, transport and industrial uses. </p>
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<h2>A necessary guide</h2>
<p>But which sources should we be pursuing, and is a rapid transition possible? </p>
<p>There are many issues to address. We must consider not only choices between technologies, but the balance between changing energy sources, promoting energy efficiency, and simply consuming less energy. As with the science of climate change, most of us lack the time and training to research these issues. We need a reliable guide.</p>
<p>Alan Finkel – formerly Australia’s chief scientist – has provided us with the guide we need. His new book, <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/powering">Powering Up</a>, covers most of the issues relating to the energy transition in a way that is approachable and readable, without oversimplification. </p>
<p>The book begins by describing the magnitude of the energy transition we face. The process may be summed up very simply as “decarbonise electricity and electrify everything”. But that simple statement hides a great many complexities. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, Finkel argues, the massive reductions in the cost of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-photovoltaic-technology-basics">solar photovoltaic cells</a> and wind energy mean that the problem, while massive in scale, is economically manageable and will ultimately yield benefits.</p>
<p>Finkel gives an accessible explanation of the distinction between energy (the ability of a system to do things) and power (how quickly energy is generated and used). This is important in understanding variable energy sources, such as solar, and in explaining energy storage systems, such as batteries. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ross-garnaut-thinks-australia-can-become-a-low-carbon-superpower-clive-hamilton-is-not-convinced-192008">Ross Garnaut thinks Australia can become a low-carbon superpower; Clive Hamilton is not convinced</a>
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<h2>Critical minerals</h2>
<p>The first two chapters of Powering Up deal with the minerals required for the energy transition, often referred to as “critical minerals”. These minerals have been the subject of many hand-wringing opinion pieces about inadequate supply and the damage caused by mining. However, as Finkel shows, most of these worries are misplaced. So-called “<a href="https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/what-are-rare-earth-elements-and-why-are-they-important">rare earths</a>”, for example, are neither rare nor earths. </p>
<p>The only really problematic case is that of cobalt, mostly produced in the Democratic Republic of Congo by an industry that employs around 200,000 workers, many of them children, under appalling conditions. </p>
<p>This is a big problem, but there are ways to resolve it. Most obviously, the companies that mine the cobalt could pay their workers a living wage – as some, at least, have promised to do. If workers were paid US$10,000 a year, well above the average for Africa as a whole, the total wage bill would only be $2 billion a year, a trivial amount in the context of the global energy economy. </p>
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<span class="caption">Muongo Tshiondo Kuta, a worker in the Shinkolobwe Cobalt mine near Likasi, Democratic Republic of Congo, April 2004.</span>
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<p>Alternatively, as Finkel shows, it would be possible to source cobalt from other countries, including Australia, or to switch to somewhat less efficient technologies based on manganese. The lesson of history is that, just as “the cemetery is full of indispensable men”, there is no single mineral so critical that civilisation would grind to a halt without it.</p>
<p>The next two chapters focus on the core of the transition to an electricity system based on solar photovoltaic and wind generation. This would need to be backed up by batteries, pumped hydro, and other technologies for “firming” (dealing with short-run fluctuations) and storage (dealing with mismatches between the time electricity is generated, and the time it is needed). </p>
<p>In this context, “renewable” is a somewhat unfortunate term – what matters is low emissions. In particular, the term excludes nuclear power and allows potentially problematic sources, such as burning biomass.</p>
<p>However, as Finkel observes, nuclear power is no longer a relevant issue for Australia. There is no prospect of nuclear power here before 2040, by which time all coal-fired plants will be closed, and gas will play at most a marginal role. Globally, it makes sense to extend the lives of existing nuclear plants, but new nuclear power can’t compete with the combination of renewables and storage.</p>
<p>Getting the transition right is a complex problem. Finkel discusses the sorry history of energy policy over the past decade or so (a period in which we worked together as members of the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/">Climate Change Authority</a>). This period of failure included the rejection of the Clean Energy Target, which he recommended to the Turnbull government, and the creation of the misnamed and misbegotten Energy Security Board, now thankfully abolished. </p>
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<span class="caption">Alan Finkel.</span>
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<p>Finkel considers what might emerge from the current rather chaotic situation, in which a variety of government initiatives interact with the remains of the artificial electricity market that emerged from the reforms of the 1990s. Looking to the future, he provides a guide to the exciting possibilities of the hydrogen economy, and the opportunity to use Australia’s massive endowment of sun and wind as the basis of an energy export industry to replace coal and gas. </p>
<p>This would include a revived “green” steel industry, in which direct reduction of iron ore using hydrogen would replace the blast-furnace technology that has been dominant since the 19th century. A hydrogen-based steel industry will require the use of magnetite, the highest-quality form of iron ore, with which we are also well endowed. </p>
<p>One disappointment in this chapter is Finkel’s failure to give adequate weight to direct export of electricity using high-voltage direct current. Projects such as <a href="https://suncable.energy/">Sun Cable</a>, which aims to export Australian electricity to Singapore and other destinations, seem at least as promising as hydrogen.</p>
<p>Finkel concludes with a discussion of some of the complex political and social issues surrounding the energy transition in Australia and globally. His treatment of these issues is measured and sensible, but doesn’t match the depth of his analysis of the technical issues in the main body of the book. It would be wonderful to have a summary of the policy issues as accessible and comprehensive as Finkel’s overview of the technological issues. </p>
<p>In the meantime, this is a book that everyone interested in the energy transition should read.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority. Alan Finkel, as Chief Scientist, was an ex officio Member of the Authority.</span></em></p>Australia’s former chief scientist argues that the transition to clean energy is economically manageable and will ultimately yield benefits.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1698322021-10-26T19:16:19Z2021-10-26T19:16:19ZAustralia’s clean hydrogen revolution is a path to prosperity – but it must be powered by renewable energy<p>Days out from the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, the Morrison government on Tuesday <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-climate-plan-has-35-2030-emissions-reduction-projection-but-modelling-underpinning-2050-target-yet-to-be-released-170635">announced</a> a “practically achievable” path to reaching its new target of net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>As expected, the government will pursue a “technology not taxes” approach – eschewing policies such as a carbon price in favour of technological solutions to reduce emissions. Developing Australia’s fledgling hydrogen industry is a central plank in the plan.</p>
<p>This technological shift should not be seen as a cost burden for Australia. Yes, major transformation in industry is needed as it moves away from conventional fossil-fuelled processes. But this green industrial revolution is a potential source of great profit and prosperity – a fact Australia’s business sector has already recognised. </p>
<p>Acting quickly, and powering the shift with renewable energy, means Australia can be a world leader in green hydrogen technology and exports, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-koreas-green-new-deal-shows-the-world-what-a-smart-economic-recovery-looks-like-145032">particular to Asia</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="hand holds blue booklet" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428452/original/file-20211026-17-iv6jas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hydrogen is at the centre of the Morrison government’s plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A ‘priority technology’</h2>
<p>Hydrogen can be produced in several ways. So-called “green” hydrogen is produced using electrolysers, powered by renewable energy, splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. </p>
<p>“Blue” hydrogen is produced from coal or gas, with some carbon emissions trapped and stored underground. </p>
<p>A report released earlier this month found Australia could <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/green-exports-could-create-thousands-of-jobs/13585262">create 395,000</a> new jobs and generate A$89 billion in new trade by 2040 by investing in clean energy exports. Some of the biggest opportunities were in green hydrogen produced using renewable energy.</p>
<p>The National Hydrogen Strategy, published in late 2019 and spearheaded by then-Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, aims to make Australia a world leader in hydrogen. Under the most optimistic scenario, it predicts Australia’s hydrogen industry could be worth A$26 billion to the economy in 2050. </p>
<p>Energy Minster Angus Taylor on Tuesday said clean hydrogen was a “priority technology” in the government’s roadmap to reaching net-zero emissions this century, adding:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We’ve set a goal of under $2 per kilogram and as we get to that cost-competitiveness we know we’ll see explosive growth in the deployment of clean hydrogen.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Somewhat problematically, the Morrison government considers blue hydrogen a “clean” technology, and an important part of Australia’s energy transition.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/super-charged-how-australias-biggest-renewables-project-will-change-the-energy-game-148348">Super-charged: how Australia's biggest renewables project will change the energy game</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men talking" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428451/original/file-20211026-25-j6jds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s former chief scientist Alan Finkel, pictured with Energy Minister Angus Taylor, spearheaded the National Hydrogen Strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The revolution is possible</h2>
<p>To bring down the cost of green hydrogen, it must be manufactured at scale. This is consistent with a vision of a global green shift in which clean forms of energy and production become so competitive they displace incumbent fossil fuel industries.</p>
<p>That is certainly the way Australian businessman Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest sees it. This month he announced his company, Fortescue Future Industries, will build a green energy manufacturing centre in central Queensland. The first step in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-11/qld-hydrogen-capacity-explainer-hydrogen-green-twiggy/100528046">$1 billion-plus</a> investment will involve hydrogen electrolysers, before the project expands to other green industry products such as cabling and wind turbines.</p>
<p>Forrest also <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/forrest-willing-to-fund-1b-green-power-station-in-nsw-20210315-p57axg">intends</a> to build a $1.3 billion gas- and hydrogen-fuelled <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-fast-tracks-andrew-forrest-backed-gas-hydrogen-port-kembla-power-station/">power plant</a> at Port Kembla in New South Wales and a plant in Brisbane, producing <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-11/queensland-hydrogen-twiggy-forrest-ammonia-feasiblity/100528732">green ammonia</a> for use in fertilisers.</p>
<p>Forrest <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-will-dwarf-coal-nsw-plan-seen-as-a-leap-forward-for-hydrogen-20211013-p58zpd.html">claims</a> there will be “no bigger industry” in future than green hydrogen and ammonia, saying it would dwarf the scale of iron ore and coal. The claims may sound outlandish, but history suggests they’re possible. </p>
<p>The oil industry, and its offshoots in cars and petrochemicals, grew to its mammoth size in the 20th century precisely because of industrialists such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-D-Rockefeller">John D. Rockefeller</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Henry-Ford">Henry Ford</a>. They understood that large investments at huge scale would trigger huge cost reductions as the market for goods produced by fossil fuels expanded.</p>
<p>Similarly today, huge investments in cost reduction and market expansion, if continued, could well see the green hydrogen industry <a href="https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf">displace</a> fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Economics will drive the transition. The costs of green hydrogen will likely outmatch the costs of oil and gas, and so become the inputs of choice in making <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/new-eco-friendly-way-make-ammonia-could-be-boon-agriculture-hydrogen-economy">green fertilisers</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">green steel</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions-126033">green cement</a> and fuel for <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions-126033">heavy vehicles</a> such as trucks and ships. </p>
<p>The business sector is not the only one blazing a trail. Several Australian states, including <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-13/andrew-forrest-backs-nsw-green-hydrogen-plan/100534458">New South Wales</a>, <a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/hydrogen/taskforce">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/western-australian-renewable-hydrogen-strategy-and-roadmap">Western Australia</a>, are also seizing green hydrogen opportunities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-is-set-to-finally-announce-a-2050-net-zero-commitment-heres-a-to-do-list-for-each-sector-170099">The Morrison government is set to finally announce a 2050 net-zero commitment. Here's a 'to do' list for each sector</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="white tank with H2 Hydrogen in blue writing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428447/original/file-20211026-17-1mqpom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government wants hydrogen produced at under $2 a kilogram.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future must be green</h2>
<p>Much resistance to clean energy in Australia has focused on the costs of the transition. But in fact, it can be a path to prosperity.</p>
<p>There’s one important caveat, however. Minister Taylor said on Tuesday that his technology roadmap included hydrogen produced from coal and gas, saying “Australia has an opportunity to be a world leader in the adoption of blue and green hydrogen”.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-at-a-crossroads-in-the-global-hydrogen-race-and-one-path-looks-risky-157864">others have noted</a>, producing hydrogen from fossil fuels is a risky strategy. It can emit substantial amounts of greenhouse gases, and capturing these emissions at a high rate may drive up the cost of the technology. </p>
<p>This would make it far more expensive than green hydrogen produced from renewable energy, disrupting the cycle of cost-reduction and market expansion. </p>
<p>Taylor is right in saying Australia could be a global leader in hydrogen production and exports. But only hydrogen produced using renewable energy will bring about a true green industrial revolution.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-at-a-crossroads-in-the-global-hydrogen-race-and-one-path-looks-risky-157864">Australia is at a crossroads in the global hydrogen race – and one path looks risky</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Mathews receives funding from the Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project 2019-202.</span></em></p>Australia’s business sector has recognised the profits to be made in the hydrogen transition. Acting quickly, and powering the shift with renewable energy, is key.John Mathews, Professor Emeritus, Macquarie Business School, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1578642021-03-29T19:04:46Z2021-03-29T19:04:46ZAustralia is at a crossroads in the global hydrogen race – and one path looks risky<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392157/original/file-20210329-15-1rpng8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=674%2C0%2C3731%2C2127&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s great excitement about Australia potentially producing hydrogen as a clean fuel at large scale, for export to countries such as Germany, Japan and South Korea. </p>
<p>Hydrogen (H₂) is a useful energy carrier, and doesn’t release greenhouse gas when that energy is recovered. But carbon dioxide (CO₂) can be emitted when hydrogen is produced, depending on whether the process uses renewable energy or fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Dr Alan Finkel – the federal government’s special adviser on low-emissions technology and a former chief scientist – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-12/hydrogen-from-coal-production-begins-la-trobe-valley/13241482">said</a> this month: “The world’s going to need a lot of hydrogen, and so the more ways we can get that hydrogen the better”.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep_2103_clean_hydrogen_0.pdf">our analysis</a>, released today, shows producing hydrogen from fossil fuels carries significant risks. The process can emit substantial greenhouse gas emissions – and capturing these emissions at a high rate may make the process more expensive than hydrogen produced from renewable energy. These findings have big implications as Australia looks to become a hydrogen superpower.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="solar panels, wind turbine, H2 storage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392162/original/file-20210329-13-f2w4qy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewables or fossil fuels? The way hydrogen is produced makes a big difference to its emissions intensity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Clean’ hydrogen from coal or gas?</h2>
<p>Zero-emissions “green hydrogen” is produced via the electrolysis of water, when the process is powered by renewable energy.</p>
<p>Hydrogen can also be produced from fossil fuels – including coal and gas. This can leads to a lot of CO₂ emissions, even when some carbon is captured and stored.</p>
<p>Several strategy documents leave the door open for Australia to produce “low-emissions” hydrogen from fossil fuels. These include the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">National Hydrogen Strategy</a> Finkel spearheaded as chief scientist, and the federal government’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/technology-investment-roadmap-first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020">Technology Investment Roadmap</a>.</p>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/author/alan-finkel">Quarterly Essay</a>, Finkel said CO₂ from hydrogen production will need to be captured and stored – in fact, he argued, importing countries would insist on it. This, Finkel says, means hydrogen from fossil fuels would be “clean hydrogen”.</p>
<p>But rates of carbon capture and storage (CCS) vary. And the greater the rate of emissions captured and securely stored underground, the more expensive the process.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-stimulus-spending-to-the-test-4-ways-a-smart-government-can-create-jobs-and-cut-emissions-140339">Putting stimulus spending to the test: 4 ways a smart government can create jobs and cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Alan Finkel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392163/original/file-20210329-19-1xyb6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alan Finkel is advocating a hydrogen path involving both fossil fuels and renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas /AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A focus on emissions intensity</h2>
<p>Globally, only a few large-scale hydrogen plants currently operate, and the rates of carbon capture achieved in practice are rarely reported. </p>
<p>When assessing whether a fuel source is low-carbon, we calculate its “emissions intensity”. This refers to how many kilograms of CO₂ is associated with the energy produced.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep_2103_clean_hydrogen_0.pdf">analysis</a> found the emissions intensity of fossil-fuel based hydrogen production systems are substantial, even with carbon capture. </p>
<p>For example, the production of hydrogen from coal, if 90% of emissions are captured, has an emissions intensity not much below that of using gas for the same energy content. The same goes for hydrogen from gas, with a 56% capture rate.</p>
<p><a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep_2103_clean_hydrogen_0.pdf">Our analysis</a> also takes into account so-called “fugitive emissions” released during the extraction and processing of fossil fuels. They are typically ignored, but are significant.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-hydrogen-to-be-truly-clean-it-must-be-made-with-renewables-not-coal-128053">For hydrogen to be truly 'clean' it must be made with renewables, not coal</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Under global accounting rules, emissions from hydrogen production will count against the producing country’s inventory. But many hydrogen importers concerned about climate change will want to know what emissions were released in production.</p>
<p>This can be done through hydrogen certification schemes. For example, the European Union has developed the CertifHy Guarantee of Origin <a href="https://www.certifhy.eu/images/media/files/CertifHy_Leaflet_final-compressed.pdf">scheme</a> which accounts for the origins of hydrogen used. It includes information on whether the hydrogen was produced using renewable or non-renewable energy sources (such as nuclear, or fossil fuels with CCS). </p>
<p>Under this scheme, only hydrogen produced from natural gas with a high carbon-capture rate (towards 90%) could be called “low-carbon” hydrogen. </p>
<p>These high capture rates are assumed in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen">major reports</a> and national strategies – including Australia’s – but have not been achieved at a large-scale commercial plant. Japan’s Tomakomai CCS <a href="https://www.japanccs.com/en/">demonstration project</a> has achieved a 90% capture rate – but at a <a href="https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2020/pdf/0515_004a.pdf">very high cost</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392194/original/file-20210329-23-1qajr2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emissions intensity of different fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors Provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Now, a look at costs</h2>
<p>At the moment, producing hydrogen with fossil fuels generally costs less than producing it with renewables-powered electrolysis. But the cost of electrolysis with renewable energy is falling, and could become cheaper than fossil fuel with carbon-capture options, as the graph below shows.</p>
<p><a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep_2103_clean_hydrogen_0.pdf">Our analysis found</a> hydrogen from gas or coal costs between US$1.66 and $1.84 per kilogram without the carbon being captured and stored. This rises to between US$2.09 and $2.23 per kilogram with high carbon-capture rates.</p>
<p>A carbon penalty, such as is applied in Europe, would make hydrogen from fossil fuels more expensive. A penalty of US$50 per tonne of CO₂ pushes the central production cost estimate up to between US$2.24 and $3.15 per kilogram.</p>
<p>By comparison, Australia’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/technology-investment-roadmap-first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020">Technology Investment Roadmap</a> set a target for “clean hydrogen” to be produced for under A$2 per kilogram, or US$1.43. </p>
<p>The true cost of carbon avoidance using CCS varies widely and is often not well defined. Current cost projections rely on optimistic estimates of CO₂ transport and storage costs, and generally do not include monitoring and verification costs for long-term storage.</p>
<p>So how does all this compare to “green” hydrogen? </p>
<p><a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep_2103_clean_hydrogen_0.pdf">Our analysis</a> found the median estimate for renewables-based electrolysis falls from US$3.64 per kilogram today to well below US$2 per kilogram. </p>
<p>The cost of producing hydrogen with renewables depends mainly on the cost of electricity, as well as the capital cost and how intensively the electrolyser is used. The cost of solar and wind power has fallen dramatically in the past decade, and this <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-09/ccep20-07_longden-jotzo-prasad-andrews_h2_costs.pdf">trend is likely to continue</a>.</p>
<p>As electrolysers are deployed at scale, their costs may decrease rapidly - pushing down the cost of green hydrogen. </p>
<h2>More may not be better</h2>
<p>So what does all this mean? If Australia pushes ahead with producing hydrogen from fossil fuels, two possible risks emerge. </p>
<p>If carbon-capture rates are low, we may lock in a new high-emissions energy system. And if capture rates are high, those production facilities could still become uncompetitive. This raises the risk of stranded assets – investments with a short economic life, which do not make a viable return.</p>
<p>Investment decisions for large scale hydrogen production will ultimately be taken by businesses, on the basis of commercial viability. But governments have an important role early on as they set expectations and assist pilot projects. The fossil fuel route is becoming a riskier bet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden is a Fellow working on the ANU Energy Change Institute’s Grand Challenge – Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona J Beck receives funding from Australian Renewable Energy Agency, and is involved in the ANU Grand Challenge Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia Pacific initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads externally funded research projects and has received Australian government funding. There are no conflicts of interest regarding this article.</span></em></p>If Australia pushes ahead with producing fossil fuels, we may lock in a new high-emissions energy system, or one that’s uncompetitive. Clearly, green hydrogen is the best way forward.Thomas Longden, Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityFiona J Beck, Senior research fellow, Australian National UniversityFrank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate and Energy Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1515882020-12-09T11:51:58Z2020-12-09T11:51:58ZAlan Finkel: how a late-night phonecall in 2016 triggered ‘incredible progress’ on clean energy<p>Like so much of what I have done as Australia’s Chief Scientist, the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-markets/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market">electricity market review of 2017</a> was unexpected. </p>
<p>I was driving home after delivering a speech late one night in October 2016 when then federal energy minister Josh Frydenberg called and asked if I would chair a review of the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-system/energy-system">National Electricity Market</a>. </p>
<p>The urgent need had arisen as a consequence of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">South Australian power blackout</a> and ongoing concerns about the evolution of the electricity market. The call was brief; the task was huge.</p>
<p>This was new territory for me. While I have a PhD in electrical engineering, I had no specific interest in power systems. I had previously taken a business interest in green technologies. I had started a green lifestyle magazine, I had invested early in green technology stocks (and lost a small fortune), been involved in an electric car charging company, and I drove an electric car. I was an engineer but my work was in micro-electronics, at the scale of brain synapses. Large-scale power engineering had been my least favourite subject.</p>
<p>Now, it is close to my favourite. Work on low-emissions technologies has occupied a significant portion of my <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-chief-scientist-alan-finkel-brought-more-science-into-government-his-successor-cathy-foley-will-continue-the-job-150156">five-year term as Chief Scientist</a>, which finishes at the end of this month. </p>
<p>Energy is a complex, vitally important topic, on which everyone has an opinion. The physics of human-induced global warming is irrefutable and a fast reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is urgent. Last summer’s bushfires were a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bushfire-royal-commission-has-made-a-clarion-call-for-change-now-we-need-politics-to-follow-149158">grim reminder</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-at-a-glance-79177">The Finkel Review at a glance</a>
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<p>People often ask me whether climate policy is destined to destroy political leaders in Australia. Call me an optimist, but what I have seen is progress. When my proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-clean-energy-target-plan-better-than-nothing-economists-poll-82066">Clean Energy Target</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-clean-energy-target-fizzles-what-might-replace-it-85598">met its maker</a> in October 2017, I was disappointed, but I was honestly excited the Australian, state and territory governments agreed to 49 out of 50 recommendations of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-at-a-glance-79177">review</a>. </p>
<p>Many of these recommendations ensured the electricity system would retain its operating strength as ever more solar and wind generation was added, and others ensured better planning processes for long-distance interconnectors and renewable energy zones. The public narrative that climate progress is moribund overlooks this ongoing work.</p>
<p>In early 2018, as I began to better understand the full potential of hydrogen in a low-emission future, I informally briefed Frydenberg, who responded by asking me to prepare a formal briefing paper for him and his state and territory counterparts. With support from government, industry, research and public interest colleagues, it developed last year into the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">National Hydrogen Strategy</a>, which explored fully the state of hydrogen technology internationally and its potential for Australia.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/145-years-after-jules-verne-dreamed-up-a-hydrogen-future-it-has-arrived-127701">145 years after Jules Verne dreamed up a hydrogen future, it has arrived</a>
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</em>
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<p>The next step came this year with the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/technology-investment-roadmap-first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020">Low Emissions Technology Statement</a>, which articulates a solid pathway to tackle some of the pressing and difficult challenges en route to a clean economy. This was developed by Frydenberg’s successor, Angus Taylor, supported by advice from a panel I chaired.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-heres-the-lowdown-on-australias-low-emissions-roadmap-146743">‘The good, the bad and the ugly’: here's the lowdown on Australia’s low-emissions roadmap</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When I was appointed Australia’s Chief Scientist in 2015, my predecessor Ian Chubb took me for a drink at Canberra’s Monster Bar. He had a prepared brief for me and we flicked through it. But Ian didn’t offer prescriptive advice, given the reality that the specifics of the role are defined by each chief scientist in line with requests from the government of the day.</p>
<p>I came to the role with a plan no more detailed than to work hard, do things well, be opportunistic, and always say yes – despite the device that sits on my desk and barks “no” whenever you hit the red button, a gift from my staff keen to see a more measured response to the many calls on my time.</p>
<p>I am most proud of my initiatives in STEM (science, technology, engineering and maths) education. These include the <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-09/australian_informed_choices_position_paper.pdf">Australian Informed Choices</a> project that ensures school students are given wise advice about core subjects that will set them in good stead for their careers; the <a href="https://starportal.edu.au/">STARPortal</a> one-stop shop for information on extracurricular science activities for children; a <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/optimising_stem_industry-school_partnerships_-_final_report.pdf">report</a> to the national education ministers on how businesses and schools can work together to provide context to science education; and the <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/StorytimePledge">Storytime Pledge</a> that acknowledges the fundamental importance of literacy by asking scientists to take a pledge to read to children.</p>
<p>But many of the high-profile tasks have arrived unexpectedly – the energy and low-emissions technology work, helping CSIRO with its <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/publications/publication/PIcsiro:EP156099">report</a> on climate and disaster resilience, and my work this year to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/coronavirus-fight-for-more-ventilators/12147638">help secure ICU ventilators</a> and most recently, to <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/national-contact-tracing-review">review testing, contact tracing and outbreak management</a> in the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/exponential-growth-in-covid-cases-would-overwhelm-any-states-contact-tracing-australia-needs-an-automated-system-150166">Exponential growth in COVID cases would overwhelm any state's contact tracing. Australia needs an automated system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The incoming Chief Scientist, Cathy Foley, will no doubt find, as I did, the job brings big surprises and unexpected turns. I expect she will also find government more receptive than ever to taking advice from experts in health, the physical sciences and the social sciences.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean gratuitous advice. The advice we offer as scientists must be relevant and considered. Much of my advice has been in the form of deep-dive reviews, such as the <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/ed16-0269_national_research_infrastructure_roadmap_report_internals_acc.pdf">report</a> on national research facilities that was <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05119-8">funded in the 2018 budget</a>. But this year, amid the pandemic, we began something quite different: the <a href="https://www.science.org.au/covid19/rapid-research-information-forum">Rapid Research Information Forum</a>, which gives fast, succinct advice to government on very specific questions. This has been a highly effective way to synthesise the most recent research results with a very quick turnaround.</p>
<p>Nor does advice mean criticism. The Chief Scientist’s job is not to be the chief scientific critic of government policy. It is to advise ministers with the best that science has to offer. In turn, their job is to weigh that advice alongside inputs from other sectors and interests.</p>
<p>For me, working with the government has delivered results. Ministers have been receptive, have never told me what to say, and have agreed to the vast majority of my work being made public. In the energy sphere, we’ve made incredible progress. I am delighted to be staying on in an advisory role on low-emissions technologies.</p>
<p>When Frydenberg called late that evening in 2016, I had no idea where to begin to assess the state of the electricity market. And I had no idea that three years later we would be taking the first steps towards a clean hydrogen economy.</p>
<p>Now I am confident we will achieve the dramatic reduction in emissions that is necessary. Because of the immensity of the energy, industrial, agricultural and building systems, it will be slow and enormously difficult in a technical sense, politics aside. </p>
<p>Anyone who believes otherwise has not looked in detail at the production process for steel and aluminium. Converting these industries to green production is a mammoth task. But the political will is there. Industry is on the job, as is the scientific community, and the work has started.</p>
<p>The beginning of my term coincided with one of the most momentous scientific breakthroughs in a century: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/gravitational-waves-discovered-top-scientists-respond-53956">detection of gravitational waves</a>, literally ripples in the fabric of spacetime. This confirmed a prediction made by Einstein 100 years ago and was the final piece in the puzzle of his Theory of General Relativity. </p>
<p>As I finish my term, the contribution of Australian scientists to that discovery has just been <a href="https://theconversation.com/top-science-prize-for-2020-goes-to-aussie-physicists-who-helped-detect-distortions-in-space-time-148989">recognised</a> in the Prime Minister’s Prizes for Science. As chair of the Prizes selection committee, this was a nice bookend for me. More importantly, it’s a reminder we are playing the long game.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As he reaches the end of his five-year term, Australia’s Chief Scientist Alan Finkel reflects on his proudest achievements in the role - and why the biggest projects have been the most unexpected.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1517702020-12-09T09:07:08Z2020-12-09T09:07:08ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Chief Scientist Alan Finkel on climate, energy and emissions<p>This month Alan Finkel ends his term as Australia’s Chief Scientist. </p>
<p>An entrepreneur, engineer, neuroscientist, and educator in his former life, Finkel describes the role he’s held since 2016 as consisting of two activities.</p>
<p>There’s “reviewing” – briefing government on all matters scientific, including energy and climate change. And then there’s “making things up” – developing programs to support the communication of science, technology, innovation, and research across the community.</p>
<p>Writing for The Conversation, Finkel expresses confidence Australia will achieve the “dramatic reduction in emissions” that is “necessary”. </p>
<p>However the road has not been easy, with many political setbacks.</p>
<p>“I was certainly somewhat personally disappointed, and disappointed for the country, that the Clean Energy Target wasn’t adopted,” Finkel tells the podcast.</p>
<p>“On the other hand, I took a lot of comfort from the fact that the other 49 out of 50 recommendations [in his report] were accepted and adopted and most of them have been implemented.”</p>
<p>“Those recommendations – a lot of them have been part of the reason that we’ve been able to introduce solar and wind electricity at extraordinary rates in the last three years.”</p>
<p>The debate currently is whether Australia will sign up for zero net emissions by 2050. While Finkel says “that’s a question for politicians, not for me”, he adds that “we’re taking the right measures already consistent with a drive towards zero or low emissions”.</p>
<p>These measures, he says, involve cheaper batteries, solar, wind, pumped hydro, and gas as a “backstop”, as we transition out of coal fire electricity.</p>
<p>Asked if a new coal-fired power station project could ever be started, Finkel said that to comply with carbon capture and storage, the cost of electricity from the plant would be “five or six times higher” than electricity produced by solar and wind.</p>
<p>“I would never predict anything…but I can say with some degree of confidence that that economics would be challenging”. His message was clear.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses Australia's current climate policy and its 2050 targets, with Australian Chief Scientist Alan Finkel.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1450092020-08-25T05:55:35Z2020-08-25T05:55:35Z4 reasons why a gas-led economic recovery is a terrible, naïve idea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354526/original/file-20200825-24-1p2iz24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C15%2C3430%2C2281&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s leading scientists today <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-s-chief-scientist-is-wrong-on-gas-say-leading-experts-20200824-p55oty.html">sent an open letter</a> to Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, speaking out against his support for natural gas. </p>
<p>Finkel has <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/news-and-media/national-press-club-address-orderly-transition-electric-planet">said</a> natural gas plays a critical role in Australia’s transition to clean energy. But, as the scientists write:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>that approach is not consistent with a safe climate nor, more specifically, with the Paris Agreement. There is no role for an expansion of the gas industry.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And yet, momentum in the support for gas investment is building. Leaked draft <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/21/leaked-covid-19-commission-report-calls-for-australian-taxpayers-to-underwrite-gas-industry-expansion">recommendations</a> from the government’s top business advisers support a gas-led economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. They call for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-24/gas-led-coronavirus-economic-recovery-national-covid19-comission/12587770">A$6 billion</a> investment in gas development in Australia.</p>
<p>This is a terrible idea. Spending billions on gas infrastructure and development under the guise of a COVID-19 economic recovery strategy — with no attempt to address pricing or anti-competitive behaviour — is ill-considered and injudicious. </p>
<p>It will not herald Australia’s economic recovery. Rather, it’s likely to hinder it. </p>
<h2>The proposals ignore obvious concerns</h2>
<p>The draft recommendations — from the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission — include lifting the moratorium on fracking and coal seam gas in New South Wales and remaining restrictions <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-quietly-lifted-its-gas-exploration-pause-but-banned-fracking-for-good-its-bad-news-for-the-climate-133923">in Victoria</a>, and reducing red and “green tape”.</p>
<p>It also recommends providing low-cost capital to existing small and medium market participants, underwriting costs at priority supply hubs, and investing in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-21/nccc-manufacturing-taskforce-draft-report-powerpoints/12270286?nw=0">strategic pipeline development</a>. </p>
<p>But the proposals have failed to address a range of fundamental concerns.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>gas is an <a href="https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/resources/pac/media/files/pac/projects/2020/03/narrabri-gas-project/correspondence/edo/sackett-narrabri-gas-project-ipc-advice-revised_final.pdf">emissions-intensive</a> fuel</p></li>
<li><p>demand for fossil fuels are in terminal decline across the world and investing in new infrastructure today is likely to generate <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/fossil-fuel-demand-in-terminal-decline-report-20200603-p54z35">stranded assets</a> in the not-too-distant future</p></li>
<li><p>renewable technology and storage capacity have rapidly accelerated, so gas is no longer a <a href="https://ieefa.org/ieefa-australia-gas-is-not-a-transition-fuel-prime-minister/">necessary transition resource</a>, contrary to <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/news-and-media/national-press-club-address-orderly-transition-electric-planet">Finkel’s claims</a></p></li>
<li><p>domestic gas pricing in the east coast market is <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Gas%20inquiry%20July%202020%20interim%20report.pdf">unregulated</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Let’s explore each point. </p>
<h2>The effect on climate change</h2>
<p>Accelerating gas production will increase greenhouse gas emissions. <a href="https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/resources/pac/media/files/pac/projects/2020/03/narrabri-gas-project/correspondence/edo/sackett-narrabri-gas-project-ipc-advice-revised_final.pdf">Approximately half</a> of Australian gas reserves need to remain in the ground if global warming is to stay under 2°C by 2030. </p>
<p>Natural gas primarily consists of methane, and the role of methane in global warming <a href="http://climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/review-current-and-future-methane-emissions-australian-unconventional-oil-and-gas-production">cannot be overstated</a>. It’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials">estimated</a> that over 20 years, methane traps 86 times as much heat in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-contentious-nsw-gas-project-is-weeks-away-from-approval-here-are-3-reasons-it-should-be-rejected-144201">A contentious NSW gas project is weeks away from approval. Here are 3 reasons it should be rejected</a>
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</p>
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<p>And fast-tracking controversial projects, such as the <a href="https://narrabrigasproject.com.au/">Narrabri Gas Project</a> in northern NSW, will add <a href="https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/resources/pac/media/files/pac/projects/2020/03/narrabri-gas-project/correspondence/edo/sackett-narrabri-gas-project-ipc-advice-revised_final.pdf">an estimated</a> 500 million tonnes of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Accelerating such unconventional gas projects also <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/overview_of_environmental_impacts_of_shale_gas_and_oil_398na1_en.pdf">threatens to</a> exacerbate damage to forests, wildlife habitat, water quality and water levels because of land clearing, chemical contamination and fracking.</p>
<p>These potential threats are enormous concerns for our agricultural sector. Insurance Australia Group, one of the largest insurance companies in Australia, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/coal-seam-gas-farmers-queensland-insurance-pull-out-iag/12337156">has indicated</a> it will no longer provide public liability insurance for farmers if coal seam gas equipment is on their land.</p>
<h2>Fossil fuels in decline</h2>
<p>Investing in gas makes absolutely no sense when renewable energy and storage solutions are expanding at such a rapid pace. </p>
<p>It will only result in stranded assets. Stranded assets are investments that don’t generate a viable economic return. The financial risks associated with stranded fossil fuel assets are prompting many large institutions to join the growing <a href="http://carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Unburnable-Carbon-2-Web-Version.pdf">divestment movement</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-it-doesnt-make-economic-sense-to-ignore-climate-change-in-our-recovery-from-the-pandemic-137282">Why it doesn't make economic sense to ignore climate change in our recovery from the pandemic</a>
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<p>Solar, wind and hydropower are rolling out at <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2019">unprecedented speed</a>. Globally, renewable power capacity is set to expand by 50% between 2019 and 2024, led by solar PV. </p>
<p>Solar PV alone accounts for almost 60% of the expected growth, with onshore wind representing one-quarter. This is followed by offshore wind capacity, which is forecast to triple by 2024.</p>
<h2>Domestic pricing is far too expensive</h2>
<p>Domestic gas in Australia’s east coast market is ridiculously expensive. The east coast gas market in Australia is <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Gas%20inquiry%20July%202020%20interim%20report.pdf">like a cartel</a>, and consumers and industry have experienced enormous price hikes over the last decade. This means there is not even a cost incentive for investing in gas. </p>
<p>Indeed, the price shock from rising gas prices has forced major manufacturing and chemical plants <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Gas%20inquiry%20July%202020%20interim%20report.pdf">to close</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Gas%20inquiry%20July%202020%20interim%20report.pdf">domestic price</a> of gas has trebled over the last decade, even though the international price of gas has plummeted by up to 40% during the pandemic. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-plenty-of-gas-but-the-price-is-extreme-the-market-is-broken-125130">Australia has plenty of gas, but the price is extreme. The market is broken</a>
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<p>As Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chair Rod Simms declared in the interim gas <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Gas%20inquiry%20July%202020%20interim%20report.pdf">report</a> released last week, these price issues are “extremely concerning” and raise “serious questions about the level of competition among producers”.</p>
<p>To date, the federal government has done <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/gas-reservation-is-not-a-bogyman-20200520-p54un3">very little</a> in response, despite the implementation of the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism in 2017. </p>
<p>This mechanism gives the minister the power to restrict LNG exports when there’s insufficient domestic supply. The idea is that shoring up supply would stabilise domestic pricing. </p>
<p>But the minister <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-01/review-of-the-australian-domestic-gas-security-mechanism-2019.pdf">has never</a> exercised the power. The draft proposals put forward by the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission do not address these concerns.</p>
<h2>A gas-led disaster</h2>
<p>There is no doubt gas producers are suffering. COVID-19 has resulted in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chevron-outlook/chevron-expects-10-billion-11-billion-charge-in-fourth-quarter-plans-asset-sales-idUSKBN1YE2MK">US$11 billion</a> of Chevron gas and LNG assets being put up for sale.</p>
<p>And the reduction in energy demand caused by COVID-19 has produced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/covid-19-crisis-demand-fossil-fuels-iea-renewable-electricity">record low oil prices</a>. Low oil prices can stifle investment in new sources of supply, reducing the ability and incentive of producers to explore for and develop gas.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-quietly-lifted-its-gas-exploration-pause-but-banned-fracking-for-good-its-bad-news-for-the-climate-133923">Victoria quietly lifted its gas exploration pause but banned fracking for good. It’s bad news for the climate</a>
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<p>It’s clear the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission’s recommendations are oriented towards helping gas producers. But investing in gas production and development won’t help Australia as a whole recover from the pandemic. </p>
<p>The age of peak fossil fuel is over. Accelerating renewable energy production, which coheres with climate targets and a decarbonising global economy, is the only way forward. </p>
<p>A COVID-19 economic strategy that fails to appreciate this not only naïve, it’s contrary to the interests of broader Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Investment in gas will not herald Australia’s economic recovery. It’s likely to hinder it.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/482302020-08-13T20:07:45Z2020-08-13T20:07:45ZFrom Kangaroo Island to Mallacoota, citizen scientists proved vital to Australia’s bushfire recovery<p>Following the Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20, many people throughout Australia, and across the world, wanted to know how they could help in response to the environmental disaster. </p>
<p>Hundreds contacted the Australian Citizen Science Association (<a href="https://citizenscience.org.au/">ACSA</a>), Australia’s peak citizen science body, for guidance on how to participate in relevant scientific projects. </p>
<p>It was a golden opportunity to show that science can be, and <em>is</em>, done by all kinds of people – not just those working in labs with years of training and access to high-powered instruments. A scientist can be you, your children or your parents.</p>
<p>And this recognition led to the establishment of the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Environment/Extreme-Events/Bushfire/Citizen-Science/Citizen-Science-Bushfire-Recovery">Citizen Science Bushfire Project Finder</a>, a key outcome from the <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/karenandrews/media-releases/ministerial-statement-bushfire-science-roundtable">bushfire science roundtable</a>, which was convened in January by Federal Science Minister Karen Andrews.</p>
<p>To establish the project finder database, ACSA partnered with the CSIRO and the Atlas of Living Australia to assist the search for vetted projects that could contribute to our understanding of post-bushfire recovery. </p>
<p>Five months on, the value is evident.</p>
<h2>Science as a way of thinking</h2>
<p>In response to the bushfires, one citizen science project set up was the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Kangaroo-Island-dunnart-recovery-supported-by-citizen-scientists-across-the-country">Kangaroo Island Dunnart Survey</a>. A record number of citizen scientists answered the call to assist in recovery efforts for this small marsupial.</p>
<p>The Kangaroo Island dunnart was already listed as endangered before the fires, with population estimates between 300-500 individuals. And initial post-fire assessments indicated a significant further decline in its population, highlighting the importance of tracking the species’ recovery. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, nearly 1,500 kilometres away from Kangaroo Island, a local resident set up “Mallacoota After Fires” in the small community of Mallacoota, Victoria – a region <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/feb/18/sifting-through-the-ashes-mallacoota-residents-after-the-bushfires-in-pictures">hit hard</a> by the bushfires.</p>
<p>This has enabled the community to record and validate (via an app and website) how the fires impacted the region’s plants and animals.</p>
<p>So far, the project has documented the existence of a range of flora and fauna, from common wombats to the vulnerable green and golden bell frog. It has also captured some amazing images of bush regeneration after fire. </p>
<p>Science does not just belong to professionals. As eminent US astronomer Carl Sagan <a href="https://speakola.com/ideas/carl-sagan-science-last-interview-1996">noted</a>, “science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge”.</p>
<p>This suggests that, when properly enabled, anyone can actively participate. And the output goes beyond the rewards of personal involvement. It contributes to better science.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/citizen-science-how-you-can-contribute-to-coronavirus-research-without-leaving-the-house-134238">Citizen science: how you can contribute to coronavirus research without leaving the house</a>
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<h2>The need for ongoing engagement</h2>
<p>Citizen science is significantly contributing observations and expertise to bushfire research. Across southeast New South Wales and the ACT, several hundred citizen scientists have: </p>
<ul>
<li>conducted targeted landscape-wide surveys of threatened species, or new weed or pest incursions</li>
<li>collected specified data from plot locations stratified against fire history </li>
<li>assessed whether wildlife actually use water and feed stations established by communities after a fire has been through. (Data suggests the use of the stations is limited).</li>
</ul>
<p>And it’s not just in local communities. Platforms such as <a href="https://digivol.ala.org.au/">DigiVol</a> have enabled citizen scientists from around the world to review thousands of camera trap images deployed post-fire to monitor species survival and recovery. </p>
<p>Still, there is much more to do. Australia is a vast continent and as we saw last summer, the fire footprint is immense.</p>
<p>But there is also a huge community out there that can help support the implementation of science and technology, as we adapt to our changing climate. </p>
<h2>Reaching out at the right time</h2>
<p>In January, Prime Minister Scott Morrison asked the CSIRO, supported by an expert advisory panel chaired by one of us (Alan Finkel), to develop recommendations for practical measures that would increase Australia’s disaster and climate resilience. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Environment/Extreme-Events/Bushfire/frontline-support/report-climate-disaste-resilience">report on Climate and Disaster Resilience</a> gives due emphasis to the importance of citizen science in complementing traditional research-led monitoring campaigns and sharing locally specific advice. One component of the response also brought together national stakeholders, to develop a series of more detailed recommendations regarding the critical role of citizen science. </p>
<p>Citizen scientists can be involved in important data collection and knowledge building. They can collaborate with disaster response agencies and research agencies, to develop additional science-based community education and training programs. </p>
<p>Also, citizen science is a way to collect distributed data beyond the affordability and resources of conventional science.</p>
<p>With that in mind, the task now is to better marry the “professional” scientific effort with the citizen science effort, to truly harness the potential of citizen science. In doing so, we can ensure environmental and societal approaches to disaster recovery represent a diversity of voices. </p>
<p>The role of the community, particularly in developing resilience against environmental disaster, can be a most useful mechanism for empowering people who may otherwise feel at a loss from the impact of disaster. Furthermore, by working with communities directly affected by bushfires, we can help measure the extent of the impact. </p>
<p>We call on our professional scientist colleagues to actively collaborate with citizen science groups. In doing so, we can identify priority areas with critical data needs, while also informing, enriching and engaging with diverse communities in science. </p>
<p>Equally, we encourage citizen scientists to share and tell their stories across social and political settings to demonstrate the impact they continue to have. </p>
<p>The beneficiary will be science. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-we-need-to-transform-our-world-into-a-sustainable-electric-planet-131658">Chief Scientist: we need to transform our world into a sustainable 'electric planet'</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Roger works for CSIRO as the Citizen Science Program Lead and is the Chair of the Australian Citizen Science Association.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of National Science Week, Chief Scientist Alan Finkel reflects on the growing value of citizen science, emphasising the need for more collaboration as we deal with an evolving climate.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistErin Roger, Citizen Science Program Lead, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280532019-12-01T23:02:03Z2019-12-01T23:02:03ZFor hydrogen to be truly ‘clean’ it must be made with renewables, not coal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304545/original/file-20191201-156116-yomnh0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4493%2C2997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hydrogen from renewable energy such as solar can be produced with zero emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Using hydrogen as a clean fuel is an idea whose time may be coming. For Australia, producing hydrogen is alluring: it could create a lucrative new domestic industry and help the world achieve a carbon-free future.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">national hydrogen strategy</a> released last month argues Australia should be at the forefront of the global hydrogen race. Led by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, the strategy takes a technology-neutral approach, by not favouring any one way of making “clean” hydrogen. </p>
<p>But it matters whether hydrogen is produced from renewable electricity or fossil fuels. While the fossil fuel route is currently cheaper, it could end up emitting substantial amounts of carbon dioxide.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304538/original/file-20191130-156090-x9ho6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dr Finkel and Energy Minister Angus Taylor ahead of a meeting about the hydrogen strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RICHARD WAINWRIGHT/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not all ‘clean’ hydrogen is the same</h2>
<p>Hydrogen can be produced using electricity through electrolysis, which splits water into hydrogen and oxygen. When renewable electricity is used, this does not produce any carbon dioxide and is known as green hydrogen.</p>
<p>Hydrogen can also be produced from coal or gas. This process releases carbon dioxide. Most hydrogen produced today is made this way. </p>
<p>Some – but critically, not all – carbon dioxide from this process can be trapped and stored in underground reservoirs – a process known as carbon capture and storage (CCS).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/145-years-after-jules-verne-dreamed-up-a-hydrogen-future-it-has-arrived-127701">145 years after Jules Verne dreamed up a hydrogen future, it has arrived</a>
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<p>But CCS is technically complex and expensive. Only two plants producing hydrogen from fossil fuels currently use it: <a href="https://www.shell.ca/en_ca/about-us/projects-and-sites/quest-carbon-capture-and-storage-project.html">one in Canada</a>, with a carbon dioxide <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Sep/IRENA_Hydrogen_2019.pdf">capture rate of 80%</a>, and <a href="http://www.airproducts.com/company/news-center/2013/05/0510-air-products-celebrates-texas-carbon-capture-demonstration-project-achievement.aspx">one in the US</a> with a lower retention rate. </p>
<p>In Australia, the only operating large-scale CCS project is Chevron’s <a href="https://australia.chevron.com/our-businesses/gorgon-project">Gorgon gas (not hydrogen) project</a> in Western Australia. After a significant delay, and three years since the project started supplying gas, <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/funding-and-incentives/low-emissions-technology-development-fund">carbon capture and storage began this year</a>. </p>
<h2>High carbon-capture rates are not assured</h2>
<p>The hydrogen strategy uses the term “clean hydrogen” for hydrogen produced from renewable electricity, and from coal or gas with carbon capture. And it assumes a “best-case” scenario where 90-95% of carbon dioxide is captured from fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Such rates are technically possible, but have not been achieved to date. Lower capture rates are not examined in the strategy.</p>
<p>At 90-95% capture rates, coal- and gas-based hydrogen is much less carbon-intensive than traditional fossil fuel uses. But a capture rate of 60% means hydrogen from coal has a similar emissions-intensity to burning natural gas directly. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304544/original/file-20191201-156086-1q2i77h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emissions intensity of fuels with and without CCS. Hydrogen numbers are for production only; emissions intensity is higher for exported hydrogen. Source: authors’ calculations, using data from the International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The national strategy does not describe a mechanism to ensure best-case capture rates are met. Production of hydrogen might ramp up much faster than the facilities required to capture emissions, allowing large amounts of greenhouse gas to enter the atmosphere – similar to the Gorgon case. </p>
<p>Another risk is that carbon capture will not be able to achieve the best-case rates for technical or cost reasons.</p>
<h2>Towards zero-emissions exports</h2>
<p>Countries including Japan, South Korea and Germany are exploring the possibility of using hydrogen in a range of ways, including in <a href="https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2017/pdf/1226_003a.pdf">power generation, transportation, heating and industrial processes</a>. </p>
<p>Some future importers may not care how cleanly our hydrogen is produced, but others might. </p>
<p>To illustrate why carbon-free exports matter, we calculated emissions if Australia produced 12 million tonnes of hydrogen for export per year – equivalent to about 30% of our current liquified natural gas exports and in line with production estimates in the national strategy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/enough-ambition-and-hydrogen-could-get-australia-to-200-renewable-energy-127117">Enough ambition (and hydrogen) could get Australia to 200% renewable energy</a>
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<p>It would require roughly 37 million tonnes of natural gas or 88 million tonnes of coal. If 90% of carbon dioxide was captured, emissions from gas would total 1.9% of Australia’s current (2018) annual greenhouse gas emissions, or 4.4% using coal.</p>
<p>If only 60% of the carbon dioxide was captured, hydrogen from gas and coal would account for an additional 7.8% and 17.9% of current national emissions respectively – making it much harder for Australia to achieve existing and future emissions targets.</p>
<h2>Where to invest</h2>
<p>Right now, producing hydrogen from fossil fuels is cheaper than from renewables, even with carbon capture and storage.</p>
<p>Australia also has large and ready reserves of brown coal in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley that will not be used by the declining coal-fired power industry. Captured carbon could be stored under Bass Strait. And the nation’s plentiful gas reserves could be turned into hydrogen, in addition to or partly replacing liquefied natural gas exports. So, it is unsurprising that the national strategy left all options on the table.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A diagram showing the myriad potential uses for hydrogen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National hydrogen strategy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-fuels-rockets-but-what-about-power-for-daily-life-were-getting-closer-112958">Hydrogen fuels rockets, but what about power for daily life? We're getting closer</a>
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<p>However establishing hydrogen production facilities with carbon capture would mean huge spending on equipment with very long lifetimes. This is risky, as the capital would be wasted if the market for emissions-intensive hydrogen collapsed, either through public attitudes or a global imperative to move to zero-emissions energy systems. </p>
<p>The world is already <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019">far off the pace</a> needed to meet its emissions reduction targets, and must ultimately get to net-zero to prevent the worst climate change impacts. </p>
<p>Australia should invest in research and development to make green hydrogen cheaper. This requires driving reductions in the cost of electrolysis, and further reductions in large-scale renewable energy production. It could lead to big benefits for the climate, and Australia’s future export economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads research projects on energy and climate change policy and economics. There are no conflicts of interest regarding this article arising from any funding received or any of the author's affiliations. He is involved in the ANU Grand Challenge Zero-Carbon Energy for Asia-Pacific initiative and co-leads the Energy Transition Hub, an Australian-German initiative supported by both governments. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona J Beck receives funding from Australian Renewable Energy Agency, and is involved in the ANU Grand Challenge Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia Pacific initiative </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden is involved in the ANU Grand Challenge Zero-Carbon Energy for Asia-Pacific initiative.</span></em></p>Coal and gas have been proposed as a way to make ‘clean’ hydrogen. But that road is full of challenges.Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate and Energy Policy, Australian National UniversityFiona J Beck, Senior research fellow, Australian National UniversityThomas Longden, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277012019-11-25T03:15:23Z2019-11-25T03:15:23Z145 years after Jules Verne dreamed up a hydrogen future, it has arrived<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303354/original/file-20191125-74584-1r3t4b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C3432%2C2185&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chief Scientist Alan Finkel says Australia can be a world leader in hydrogen production and export.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Rae/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1874, science fiction author Jules Verne set out a prescient vision that has inspired governments and entrepreneurs in the 145 years since.</p>
<p>In his book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/183637/the-mysterious-island-by-jules-verne-translated-by-jordan-stump-introduction-by-caleb-carr/">The Mysterious Island</a>, Verne wrote of a world where “water will one day be employed as fuel, that hydrogen and oxygen which constitute it, used singly or together, will furnish an inexhaustible source of heat and light, of an intensity of which coal is not capable”.</p>
<p>Australia now has a map to help realise Verne’s vision. Over the past 11 months, I have led the development of a <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy.pdf">National Hydrogen Strategy</a>. On Friday, the draft and its 57 strategic actions were unanimously adopted at a meeting of the nation’s energy ministers.</p>
<p>The strategy for the next decade creates the foundation for Australia to capture the hydrogen opportunity and become a leading player in a growing global market.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/788/Sc01.gif?1574379470" width="100%"></p>
<h2>So why hydrogen?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-fuel-basics">Clean hydrogen</a> is produced from water using renewable energy, or from fossil fuels with technology that captures and stores carbon.</p>
<p>To grasp hydrogen’s incredible potential as a fuel source, it first helps to understand its energy density. Just 1kg of hydrogen is enough to travel up to 100km in a Hyundai Nexo SUV, or power a 1,400 watt electric split-cycle air conditioner for 14.5 hours.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/enough-ambition-and-hydrogen-could-get-australia-to-200-renewable-energy-127117">Enough ambition (and hydrogen) could get Australia to 200% renewable energy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>About 1 tonne of hydrogen is equivalent to 3.4 times the average annual consumption of an Australian house with gas heating.</p>
<p>Hydrogen is just the fuel the world needs to support a clean energy future: zero-emissions, flexible, storable, and safe.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303355/original/file-20191125-74584-19a2f0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A diagram showing the myriad potential uses for hydrogen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National hydrogen strategy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia is well placed to make hydrogen its next big export. We have the natural resources needed to produce it, a track record in building large-scale energy industries, and a reputation as a proven partner to Asia’s biggest energy importers.</p>
<p>An Australian hydrogen industry could generate thousands of jobs and add billions of dollars to gross domestic product. It could help us reliably integrate renewable generation into the electricity grid and reduce dependence on imported fuels. And it could lower carbon emissions, in Australia and around the world.</p>
<h2>A hydrogen roadmap</h2>
<p>The 57 actions in the strategy outline how to remove market barriers, build supply and demand, and make us cost-competitive globally. This will enable Australia to scale up quickly as markets develop.</p>
<p>The first development phase to 2025, which is <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/hydrogen/">already underway</a>, requires:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>pilot projects, trials and demonstrations to test business models and prove the supply chain needed to produce and distribute clean hydrogen</p></li>
<li><p>developing global markets, including international outreach to harmonise standards and encourage trade </p></li>
<li><p>improving workforce skills and establishing training regimes.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303371/original/file-20191125-74599-11m2wlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hyundai’s driverless, hydrogen-powdered heavy goods truck unveiled last month in the US.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hyundai</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second phase to 2030 involves scaling up the supply chain and activating the market at a large scale. This requires:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>expanding projects to support export needs. This might include government financing and policies to stimulate investment</p></li>
<li><p>increasing domestic hydrogen demand, such as blending hydrogen in gas networks and using it for long-distance heavy transport</p></li>
<li><p>building infrastructure such as power lines, pipelines, storage tanks, refuelling stations, and railway lines.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Achieving such measures by 2030 would indicate we’ve successfully built an Australian hydrogen industry, and set us up for the decades to follow.</p>
<h2>Using hydrogen</h2>
<p>We’re already seeing <a href="http://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903">unprecedented growth in low-emissions electricity generation</a>. But in other energy-consuming sectors such as heavy transport and industry, the journey is less advanced. Decarbonising these sectors is an urgent challenge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-fuels-rockets-but-what-about-power-for-daily-life-were-getting-closer-112958">Hydrogen fuels rockets, but what about power for daily life? We're getting closer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Hydrogen will complement batteries in sectors such as transport. Batteries are suitable for cars and city-bound buses and trucks, whereas hydrogen, which has a higher energy density, is better suited to cargo ships, interstate freight trains, and big trucks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303358/original/file-20191125-74599-abfmww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alan Finkel and federal energy minister Angus Taylor speaking before a meeting in Perth on Friday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RICHARD WAINWRIGHT/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clean hydrogen has no equal when it comes to capturing and exporting solar and wind electricity. Energy-importing countries are hungry for hydrogen as part of their emissions reduction agenda, and Australia has the potential to supply much of their needs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hydrogen-power-can-help-us-cut-emissions-boost-exports-and-even-drive-further-between-refills-101967">How hydrogen power can help us cut emissions, boost exports, and even drive further between refills</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Hydrogen can be used like natural gas, or blended with it, to heat homes and industry and for cooking.</p>
<p>Australian energy companies and investors are ready to activate the supply of hydrogen. The challenge is to develop the early demand that will lower costs for producers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303359/original/file-20191125-74584-1x2uf5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hydrogen can be used for domestic cooking, including by blending it with natural gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future is ours to seize</h2>
<p>For the anxious, progress towards a hydrogen future is too slow. But look back a few decades from now and history will record the hydrogen industry as an overnight success.</p>
<p>The best way to start this journey is for governments, industry and communities to work together, focusing on streamlining regulation, ensuring safety, opening international markets, and catalysing commercial investment.</p>
<p>Travelling around the country I have witnessed an extraordinary degree of passion for this industry from ministers, public servants, investors, industrialists and the public. Hydrogen’s future is bright and ours to seize.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Extracts of this piece have been taken from the draft National Hydrogen Strategy.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is the Chair of the COAG Hydrogen Strategy Working Group that developed the national hydrogen strategy.</span></em></p>Just 1kg of hydrogen can power a split-cycle air conditioner for 14.5 hours. The possibilities are endless - and now we have a plan to get there.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1233742019-09-12T00:44:40Z2019-09-12T00:44:40Z‘There is a problem’: Australia’s top scientist Alan Finkel pushes to eradicate bad science<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292020/original/file-20190911-190065-16xm35j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's Chief Scientist Alan Finkel</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the main, Australia produces high-quality research that is rigorous and reproducible, and makes a significant contribution towards scientific progress.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t do it better.</p>
<p>In the case of the research sector here and abroad, we need to acknowledge that as good as the research system is, there is a problem.</p>
<p>There are a significant number of papers that are of poor quality, and should never have made it through to publication. In considering why this might be the case, I have found myself reflecting on the role of incentives in the research system. </p>
<p>Because incentives matter, as we have seen through the findings of the Royal Commission into the banking sector led by Kenneth Hayne.</p>
<p>The commission shone a light on how the sector incentivises its employees. And there are some incentives in the research community that, in my view, need to be looked at.</p>
<p>We may be inadvertently encouraging poor behaviour. And to ensure research remains high-quality and trustworthy, we need to get the incentives right.</p>
<h2>Lessons from the banking Royal Commission</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292027/original/file-20190911-190065-1hxdgl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parallels can be drawn between inappropriate incentives in both the banking and research sectors, Dr Finkel says.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The commission showed that over the past decade or two, the banking sector moved from salary-based to bonus-based remuneration. But those bonuses have been mapping to the wrong values: to sales and profit instead of compliance with the law and net benefit to customers.</p>
<p>Similarly in the research sector, we can’t ignore that there are many incentives pushing some to cut corners and lower their standards.</p>
<p>The competition for funding is fierce and is increasing every day. The temptation to judge a researcher’s performance through simple metrics, such as the number of published research papers, is strong. These metrics are incentives that drive behaviour - not all of it good. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/finkel-students-focus-on-your-discipline-then-youll-see-your-options-expand-107440">Finkel: students, focus on your discipline then you’ll see your options expand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We all know of instances of poor research practice. Selective publication of results to support a hypothesis. HARKing: hypothesising after results are known. Manipulating data and research methods to achieve statistical significance.</p>
<p>If we can focus on improving the quality of research in general, we can achieve broad and long-lasting benefits. And I think the best way to do this is to look at the incentives.</p>
<h2>Quality should trump quantity</h2>
<p>Publication is a principal criterion for career advancement in the research sector. And I don’t want to change that. However, the institutionalisation of performance metrics has created incentives for researchers to publish as many papers as possible.</p>
<p>There shouldn’t be an incentive for a researcher to salami-slice their results into three or four separate publications, rather than one meaningful publication. If the purpose of publication is to share your results in a way that can be built on by other researchers, this kind of practice completely defeats that purpose.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292030/original/file-20190911-190050-1kpy5jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perverse incentives can encourage the manipulation of research results, Dr Finkel says.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One model that places the focus on quality over quantity is the “Rule of Five”.
With this rule, a researcher’s performance for grant funding or promotion is judged on their best five publications over a five year period, accompanied by a description of its impact and the researcher’s individual contribution.</p>
<p>The exact number of publications or years isn’t important, as long as it is less than ten.</p>
<p>Of course, there are disciplinary differences that may need to be taken into account. But what matters is the emphasis on the significance of the research.</p>
<h2>Researchers must undergo integrity training</h2>
<p>Unlike other professions, there are no national competencies and no national
recognition of education and training in research integrity. While many institutions in Australia do provide training programs for their PhD students, these programs vary in quality, content and reach.</p>
<p>And, to the best of my knowledge, no Australian institutions have a training
requirement for their existing research workforce.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-is-clear-we-have-to-start-creating-our-low-carbon-future-today-104774">The science is clear: we have to start creating our low-carbon future today</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>I strongly believe the overall quality of research in Australia would be strengthened by research integrity training for all researchers.</p>
<p>Training puts a spotlight on expectations for the whole community and
encourages consistent behaviour. It also removes that old chestnut of plausible deniability: “Honest, officer, I didn’t know it was wrong!”</p>
<p>The training must be accredited, and must be high quality. It should not be a
“tick the box” exercise. And if we circle back to incentives, the best way to encourage researchers to undertake the training is to make proof of training a requirement for obtaining a grant. </p>
<p>To those naysayers who say it will never happen, let me tell you that it already has. The Irish Health Research Board has recently implemented such a scheme. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292033/original/file-20190911-190007-1qlk67q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Finkel: research integrity training should be mandatory for all researchers, and tied to grant funding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Predatory, evil’ scholarly journals</h2>
<p>Finally, I am concerned that the incentives in the research system are not just
driving bad behaviour for researchers, but are also creating a market for
criminals to enter scholarly publishing.</p>
<p>What is motivating the crooks is the pay-per-page system that has come with
the introduction of open access publishing.</p>
<p>Now, open access publishing has many benefits and I support the move towards it. But I remain concerned that it has opened the door for predatory, evil, crooked journals.</p>
<p>It is just too easy to set up a journal and a website with a highfalutin title, and appropriate the biographies of leading researchers for the editorial board – without their knowledge or permission. Before you know it, huge numbers of papers are being published without any rigour.</p>
<p>And there are researchers who are knowingly paying to publish in journals that have no peer review, even though they claim to. Journals that have no ethics. Not even an editorial team to consider the submitted paper.</p>
<p>These researchers might just be naïve, but we have to acknowledge that the current incentives reward this behaviour.</p>
<p>While this is not a major problem in Australia, emerging research nations are
really struggling with this. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292034/original/file-20190911-190021-1jyabgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Finkel: a new publishing standard should be introduced to weed out unscrupulous research journals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In my conversations with senior research leaders around the world, they are
looking for ways to improve performance metrics in a way that does not drive
their researchers to these journals.</p>
<p>I propose a rigorous quality assurance system, designed to inform
stakeholders that a particular journal’s processes for assessing a paper meets
agreed publishing standards. I like to call it Publication Process Quality Assurance, or PPQA.</p>
<p>Compliance with PPQA would indicate to researchers, research institutions,
libraries and granting agencies that the journal follows internationally accepted guidelines for the publication process.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-isnt-broken-but-we-can-do-better-heres-how-95139">Science isn't broken, but we can do better: here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Granting agencies are best placed to provide the incentive for researchers to only publish in PPQA-compliant journals by enforcing it through their grant application process.</p>
<h2>Follow the money</h2>
<p>You might have picked up by now a common thread; that in each of my three
recommendations, I am looking to take the responsibility back to the granting
agencies. It’s a concept referred to by others as “follow the money”.</p>
<p>If the granting agencies put in place these measures, they will ripple through
into the research institutions and mitigate the ongoing risks of poor quality research.</p>
<p>It will change the culture and ensure that last century’s academic rigour
continues for the 21st century research workforce and beyond. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is an edited version of a speech Dr Finkel will deliver in Melbourne on September 12 at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, to mark its fifth anniversary.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s top scientist Alan Finkel says too many poor quality research papers are being published in Australia, and the system may inadvertently encourage academics to behave badly.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1074402018-11-27T19:07:38Z2018-11-27T19:07:38ZFinkel: students, focus on your discipline then you’ll see your options expand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246953/original/file-20181122-182050-9soh6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A musician must master the instrument before they can master playing in an orchestra.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is a long read. Enjoy!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Today I want to set out my case for the enduring relevance of the disciplines. I want to advocate for a content-rich curriculum. And I want to focus in particular on the importance of teaching maths, in sequence, through a structured program, and at the level of a student’s real ability.</p>
<p>But I want to get there by way of a parable. </p>
<h2>The Light in the Cave</h2>
<p>A few years ago, I travelled with my family to New Zealand. We decided to spend a few hours at the Te Anau caves, near the south-western tip of the South Island.</p>
<p>Every year, people flock there in their tens of thousands not so much for the caves – although they’re stunning – but for the glow-worms. Like a scene from The Phantom of the Opera, you step into a barge that glides silently through the water, shrouded by the subterranean darkness. Then you look up, and you’re in a grotto, and all you can see are thousands upon thousands of tiny blue pin-points of light.</p>
<p>Now I’m an engineer – and the author of the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-markets/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market">Finkel Review of the National Electricity Market</a>. It’s hard to take off your hats when you’re on holiday. So when I looked at those lights, I thought to myself: what a brilliant mechanism for the efficient conversion of chemical energy into light energy!</p>
<p>It works like this: glow-worms live on mosquitoes and midges. To catch them, they dangle an invisible web of silken threads and switch on their lights. The light confounds the prey, then the silk entangles the victims. And the victims provide the energy to keep the lights on. Genius. So that’s what I saw in the cave: engineering inspiration.</p>
<p>Then there’s my wife, a life scientist. She can tell you that glow-worms are found only in Australia and New Zealand. And she’s also the very recently retired editor of Cosmos magazine. So she knows a lot about the natural phenomenon of bioluminescence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247389/original/file-20181126-140507-virf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The light in the cave in New Zealand comes from glow-worms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, we can isolate the luminescent and fluorescent proteins in creatures like glow-worms and jellyfish. And we use gene editing techniques to modify – for example – the neurons in a fruit fly, so they flash in different colours depending on the level of electrical activity.</p>
<p>That means we can take images of complex structures like the brain in glorious technicolour. We move ever closer to answers to the cruellest conditions: dementia, motor neuron disease, schizophrenia. So that’s my wife’s perspective: great science, great pictures, and great material for Cosmos.</p>
<p>Then there’s my older son, Victor. He’s a management consultant. He deeply respects the Kiwi capacity to monetise what is, when you think about it, colonies of fungus gnats living on mosquitoes in a cave. And my younger son, Alex. He’s a software engineer who appreciates the way the tour operator keeps iterating and improving the experience.</p>
<p>And as I stepped off the barge I wondered, would an astronomer look up and see a living galaxy of stars? Would an airline pilot be reminded of the view from the cockpit, flying over a city at night? Would a historian be intrigued by all the myths and legends we’ve used to explain this phenomenon over the centuries?</p>
<p>I wish I’d had more time to ask. But just from my sample group of four, it was clear: every one of us, with a grounding in a discipline, stepped off that boat with something distinctive to say. We’d seen the world in different patterns. And we’d imagined its possibilities in many forms.</p>
<p>That’s the parable of the Light in the Cave.</p>
<h2>The importance of specialising in something</h2>
<p>When I was a student the importance of actually specialising in something – mastering a discipline – was more or less assumed. We thought about the skills mix of our future society in the same way we imagined an orchestra. You want a broad mix of people who excel in a range of speciality fields.</p>
<p>Yes, we do want those people to be able to play together. And we want them to sound like an orchestra, not several dozen simultaneous solos.</p>
<p>That means – if you’ll excuse the pun – that every one of those musicians needs to have at least two strings to their bow: a primary discipline – the instrument, and a secondary discipline – orchestral performance. But they can’t master the secondary discipline without reaching a level of proficiency in their instruments first.</p>
<p>If you think you can, I challenge you to give a clarinet to a ten year old and enrol her on the same day into the school band. Now, that student could have a genuine passion and talent for music – but until she can manage her fingers, and the breathing, and read music, and produce a noise that isn’t a brain-splitting shriek – she’s got to knuckle down and practice. Solo. Focus on your discipline – then you’ll see your options expand.</p>
<p>And I internalised that logic. I now understand that a discipline is like a ladder. You have to put in the effort to climb it, step by step, with structure and sequence, accepting the guidance of your teachers. Learn the principle. Do the practice. Apply the skills. Repeat.</p>
<p>In particular, that’s the approach my parents and teachers took to my mathematical education. They didn’t leave it to me to decide. Of course, they didn’t know what I might one day want to do at university. I didn’t know what I wanted to do at university!</p>
<p>But right from the beginning, they knew maths was likely to be extremely important, and mastering it would maximise my choices. So they made sure I worked at it until I didn’t have to work at it – starting with the times table.</p>
<p>At first, I had to stop and think – all the time. It was tedious. But I wanted to do well. That made me determined. And soon enough I could see “11 times 12” or “nine squared” and the answer just sprang up in my mind unbidden, so that I wasn’t even conscious my brain was doing any work.</p>
<p>By the time I got to university I had reached a level of proficiency that allowed me to devote all my mental energy to mastering engineering. Again, I worked at it. I became an incurable engineer just like I’d become a human calculator: rung by rung, climbing the ladder.</p>
<p>The next step for me was setting up a company to commercialise a medical research tool I’d developed in the course of my study. I was uncertain of many things in my life at that time, including my bank balance, because there were many days when I was too nervous to look at it. But at least when it came to hiring, I knew exactly what was required. Discipline experts who could work together – not generalists who thought the same. </p>
<p>Since that time, I’ve seen a lot of teams, in business and in research, and I’ve sat on a lot of boards. I would still build my company exactly the same way. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247391/original/file-20181126-140531-19c0p83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Learn the principle. Practice. Apply the skills. Repeat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I now have the life experience to confirm the wider application of the golden rule: yes, you will go badly astray if you pick ten people who collectively specialise in nothing at all. And I worry that we, as a nation, will go the same way, if we take away from the next generation of workers the disciplinary ladders that we climbed ourselves. In short: if we raise a generation who come out of the glow-worm cave perhaps ready to talk – but with nothing distinctive to say.</p>
<h2>The future is uncertain</h2>
<p>Why would we take that route? There are any number of rationales presented, and usually, by thoughtful people with the very best of intentions.</p>
<p>Don’t encourage students to limit themselves to a discipline, they say. Encourage everyone to be a capable generalist instead. Teamwork! Emotional intelligence! Public speaking! Creative thinking! That’s what will make them adaptable, so that’s what we ought to teach. And let students acquire those generic skill sets by following their passions. </p>
<h2>Maximising choice</h2>
<p>What does that look like in practice? It means putting the expectation on teenagers to pick from over a hundred different courses available to them in years 11 and 12. At the same time, training their minds on the importance of graduating with the highest possible ATAR, on the understanding the higher the number, the wider the choice. And giving them minimal guidance on the discipline-specific knowledge they might actually need to do well in a particular degree.</p>
<p>Yes, I am thinking in particular here about the removal of prerequisites from university course guides. And most of all, I am thinking of the messages we give to students about the importance of focus and mastery in maths.</p>
<p>Why do I focus on mathematics? Partly, because it’s a skill set that’s fundamental to science, to commerce, to economics, to medicine, to engineering, to geography, to architecture, to IT. And partly, because it’s the textbook example of why you need to learn things in sequence through hard work, with the guidance of an expert teacher – and the very clear message from schools that it’s a priority.</p>
<p>You can’t just trust your passions to help you meander through it. So it’s particularly vulnerable when we shift the focus from hard content to soft skills.</p>
<p>We have the year 11 and 12 course enrolment data to confirm it. These show a 20 year decline in the proportion of students taking intermediate and advanced maths at year 12. And it’s worse for girls. <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/spf_issues_paper_final_trim_id_d17_2145710.pdf">In 2016</a>, just 7% of female year 12 students took advanced maths compared with 12% of male students.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247395/original/file-20181126-140534-1tnf857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even the Chief Scientist had to practice times tables until proficient.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also have a recent <a href="http://www.iier.org.au/iier28/hine.pdf">study</a> from Western Australia. The heads of the maths departments in 50 high schools were surveyed on the reasons why students were turning away in droves from their more advanced maths classes.</p>
<p>And the three stand-out reasons were exactly what I’ve heard, and I’m sure you’ve heard, from teachers all over the country:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>it’s not required for entry to university</p></li>
<li><p>other courses are easier</p></li>
<li><p>everyone says you can maximise your ATAR – and thereby, your choices – if you just drop down a level in maths.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The logic is beguiling – especially when it’s coupled with the message that the future is all about the soft skills.</p>
<h2>The value of prerequisites</h2>
<p>But we also know that the logic is false – because we know what happens to those students who opt for easier courses with more soft skill components in school. They arrive at university and discover they’re in the same unprepared position as the ten-year-old holding a clarinet in her hand for the first time the same day she was enrolled in the school band. They’ve got to grapple with a discipline like science, commerce, or architecture while simultaneously trying to fill the maths gap.</p>
<p>And at that stage, what choice do they have? They can drop out of university. They can find another course – after drawing a cross through all the courses involving maths. Or they can struggle through and find themselves at the end of the degree, competing for a job with students who were better prepared and thriving from day one.</p>
<p>Consider the data compiled by the University of Sydney, and presented this year. Students who took only elementary maths for the <a href="http://educationstandards.nsw.edu.au/wps/portal/nesa/11-12/hsc/about-HSC">Higher School Certificate</a> (HSC) were <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/school-maths-strugglers-more-likely-to-fail-uni-sciences/news-story/b866ff29f502bd2e04b4ae986a98f203">twice as likely</a> to fail both first year biology and first year chemistry, compared to those who opted for intermediate or advanced maths.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:9120">study</a> conducted at Western Sydney University in 2009 looked at first year university mathematics. Every one of the students who entered with advanced maths passed. 77% of those with only elementary maths failed. That’s four out of five, failed.</p>
<p>And yet cohort after cohort of school leavers keeps repeating the pattern, and we continue to allow it – even encourage it. Where is the duty of care?</p>
<p>We have another <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/369/8488-22008-1-PB_%282%29.pdf?1542932326">paper</a> from the University of Sydney, published in 2013. Even at an institution with high ATAR requirements, 9% of students in science degrees had no mathematics study in senior secondary years, and 17% had only elementary mathematics, with no calculus. Fewer than half of the students in science degrees met the “assumed knowledge” of advanced maths to enrol in the first year differential calculus unit.</p>
<p>And the same study confirmed, once again, that higher levels of mathematics taken for the HSC are strong predictors of success in first year science, as well as first year maths.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247396/original/file-20181126-140513-1celkdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Removing prerequisite courses for entry to university does students a disservice – they’re more likely to drop out of or fail first year university maths.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QUT/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Now if you were a teenager in the UK, and you wanted to study at one of the elite universities – called <a href="https://russellgroup.ac.uk/">the Russell Group</a> – you would open up the group’s annual guide. There you would see, very clearly stated, what subjects are essential for entry into every university course, and which are useful. For example, students thinking of engineering would learn that advanced level maths is essential.</p>
<p>Discipline-based courses like maths, English, physics, biology, chemistry, geography and history are identified as “facilitating subjects” – the subjects most likely to be required or preferred for entry. Generic courses like critical thinking and general studies are less important and, quote, “usually better taken only as an extra”. So the message is very clear: generic courses cut your choices.</p>
<p>For some Australian universities, and some courses, intermediate or advanced mathematics might still be explicitly required – but the number of those institutions and courses has dwindled. Some have replaced “prerequisite” with “assumed knowledge”.</p>
<p>They are not the same. The word “prerequisite” means the subject is compulsory. The phrase “assumed knowledge” means the subject is nice to have. There is no possible way in English to interpret them to mean the same. It’s not clear to me why the universities even mention “assumed knowledge” if there is no formal requirement for students to have done the preparatory courses.</p>
<p>On the evidence from the University of Sydney, perhaps it might be more accurate to replace the phrase “assumed knowledge” with a longer phrase, “you will not comprehend or pass this course unless you take this subject but the choice is yours”.</p>
<h2>We can do better</h2>
<p>I believe we can do better. We have to do better than mixed signals. We have to get across the message maximising your choices is not the same as maximising your ATAR. And we have to ensure that the ladders to opportunity – the disciplines – are strong.</p>
<p>Mastering a discipline is mastering your destiny. So let’s ensure all our students come out of the glow-worm cave with something distinctive to say.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is an edited extract of a <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2018/11/speech-the-winning-2030-cv/">keynote speech</a> delivered at the 5th International STEM in Education Conference on Wednesday 21 November 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chief Scientist Alan Finkel writes we can do a better job of teaching students to master a discipline and maximise their post-school opportinities.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/975332018-06-05T20:06:21Z2018-06-05T20:06:21ZANU’s new entrance criteria won’t do much to improve equity<p>The Australian National University recently <a href="http://www.anu.edu.au/study/apply/new-admissions-for-2020/co-curricular-or-service-requirement">announced</a> that from 2020 it will require all students to meet co-curricular requirements alongside the Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) requirement. </p>
<p>The diverse <a href="http://www.anu.edu.au/study/apply/new-admissions-for-2020/co-curricular-or-service-requirement">list</a> of co-curricular requirements includes part-time employment, participation in the creative arts, sports, and community and service activities. Academic internships, international exchange, and scholastic activities such as the prestigious <a href="https://www.googlesciencefair.com/#!?modal_active=none">Google Science Fair</a> are also recognised under the scheme. </p>
<p>This represents perhaps the largest admissions policy shift from a <a href="https://go8.edu.au/">Group of Eight</a> university to date. It’s a clear indication the national university is looking beyond the ATAR to ensure it attracts the most suitable young people to its courses. But it will not do much to improve equity of access.</p>
<h2>Anti-ATAR sentiment</h2>
<p>Sentiment against the Australian Tertiary Admissions Ranking (ATAR) is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/atar-should-be-simplified-or-even-abolished-says-chief-scientist-alan-finkel-20180423-p4zb74.html">rising</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/should-we-scrap-the-atar-what-are-the-alternative-options-experts-comment-55501">Should we scrap the ATAR? What are the alternative options? Experts comment</a>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/education/nsw-universities-taking-students-with-atars-as-low-as-30-20160126-gmdvr6.html">Fairfax report</a> in 2016 showed universities were accepting students with ATARs much lower than advertised cut-off scores. The report confirmed suspicions university admissions are <a href="https://myaccount.news.com.au/sites/theaustralian/subscribe.html?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&mode=premium&dest=https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/year-12-and-atar-need-a-rethink/news-story/08187e86c4d8f26d7b514e23eb61e4c9&memtype=anon">opaque</a> and at risk of being gamed <a href="http://campusmorningmail.com.au/news/no-the-atar-cant-be-gamed-but-it-can-be-tuned/">by schools</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, there have been calls across the sector to <a href="https://theconversation.com/atars-you-may-as-well-use-postcodes-for-university-admissions-19154">increase transparency</a> around how ATAR is used for university entrance. And a rising chorus suggests the ATAR should be <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-we-scrap-the-atar-what-are-the-alternative-options-experts-comment-55501">scrapped all together</a>.</p>
<p>More recently, Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel has emerged as a fierce opponent of the ATAR system, going as far as to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/atar-should-be-simplified-or-even-abolished-says-chief-scientist-alan-finkel-20180423-p4zb74.html">suggest</a> the system is “completely obscure” and results in students “being given poor advice” about their post-secondary options. </p>
<h2>What has changed?</h2>
<p>The majority of universities across the country already accept some students based on other-than-ATAR requirements. These include portfolios, interviews, and community service. Most also allocate a number of places to students from underrepresented communities, and specific pathways for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people. </p>
<p>What’s different about ANU Vice-Chancellor Brian Schmidt’s announcement last week is the specific commitment by a high status, research-intensive university to base admissions on more than “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/education/community-service-as-important-as-atar-for-year-12s-in-anu-overhaul-20180529-p4zi7n.html">just a score</a>”.</p>
<p>The addition of a co-curricular or “service” requirement follows an announcement by <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/australian-national-university-to-abandon-atar-as-sole-entry-requirement-20160801-gqi4ai.html?_ga=2.204029648.1351890709.1528065145-1249041768.1524834919">Professor Schmidt in 2016</a> that the national university was looking to “move away from judging students only on their year 12 ATAR results”. </p>
<p>The move will see students required to meet a threshold of out-of-class activities alongside the ANU floor ATAR of 80 for admission to most courses. ANU has two advantages which allow it to take this policy position: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>the lowest ATAR admitted to ANU in 2018 was close to 80.00, which means ANU draws almost exclusively from the top quintile of results overall</p></li>
<li><p>ANU enjoys a remarkably high completion rate, with <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/third-of-university-students-failing-to-complete-course/news-story/0c70435cf7690878811d957a51523a5b">over 80%</a> successful completions between 2009 and 2014. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>This policy may help to attract students with a “near-miss” on their admission into high-status degrees. By necessity, it will certainly encourage already high performing students to look beyond their academic studies and develop their whole selves in the final years of secondary school.</p>
<p>But it won’t dramatically alter the student cohort in terms of encouraging low-SES students to apply. These students are significantly <a href="https://theconversation.com/year-12-results-day-does-the-atar-actually-matter-that-much-48890">more likely</a> to achieve an ATAR under 80 than their more advantaged peers </p>
<p>Rather, ANU’s co-curricular or service requirement will increase competition for places at the lower-end of those students the university already accepts. It gives the university a powerful lever with which to allocate university places moving forward. This is especially important given the <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/link/9d7c304cafe37e80cf41a5e7b34f4e9c?domain=theaustralian.com.au">increased scrutiny</a> on the use of ATAR as the sole basis for university admissions. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for equity?</h2>
<p>ANU’s plan has <a href="https://psnews.com.au/2018/05/31/universitys-new-admission-plan-wins-praise/">drawn praise</a> from Federal Minister for Education and Training Simon Birmingham. He suggested the policy represents a “commitment to welcome, educate and accommodate the best and brightest Australians, regardless of their background”. </p>
<p>Professor Schmidt has positioned these changes as an access measure. But as higher education policy expert Andrew Norton notes, high-socioeconomic young people tend to <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2018/05/30/will-extra-curricular-admission-requirements-improve-low-ses-access-to-the-anu/">perform better</a> on these kinds of co-curricular requirements than their less advantaged peers. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/your-atar-isnt-the-only-thing-universities-are-looking-at-93353">Your ATAR isn't the only thing universities are looking at</a>
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<p>Non-academic requirements are very common overseas. The US is the most prominent example, where students are required to apply directly to each institution. That system is widely <a href="https://www.theodysseyonline.com/income-students-disadvantage">criticised</a> as advantaging high-socioeconomic students who often enjoy far superior resources, time, and parental support in putting together their applications. There have been significant moves in recent times to address these issues, with the continued adoption of <a href="http://www.commonapp.org/search-colleges">common application</a> processes.</p>
<p>Multiple factors influence young people’s readiness for tertiary study. This is especially true for students from diverse, underrepresented, and low-socioeconomic backgrounds.</p>
<p>First, these young people are at a <a href="https://theconversation.com/career-studies-and-advice-start-early-or-dont-start-at-all-40563">significant disadvantage</a> in terms of the quality and availability of career planning and counselling.</p>
<p>Second, even after they’re admitted, young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are significantly <a href="https://www.ncsehe.edu.au/publications/completing-university-in-a-growing-sector-is-equity-an-issue/">more likely to drop out</a>. This is often due to beyond-academic reasons, such as balancing work and study, caring responsibilities, and social exclusion.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-atar-debate-students-need-to-be-able-to-finish-uni-not-just-start-it-36478">The ATAR debate: students need to be able to finish uni, not just start it</a>
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<p>Third, the tertiary admissions process, and the use of ATAR remain <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/call-rethink-australian-university-admissions">poorly understood</a> by the community more generally.</p>
<p>Finally, even if these students do succeed, they tend to find it <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/nice-work-if-you-can-get-it">more challenging</a> to secure work experience, and full-time employment after their studies. This is <a href="https://www.thesmithfamily.com.au/%7E/media/files/research/research-evaluation/research-disadvantaged-young-australians-learning-for-life.ashx">due to</a> more limited professional networks and parental support.</p>
<p>In short, less advantaged students require significant additional supports, well beyond acknowledging their diverse pathways for entry into a degree program. These challenges remain the key litmus test for any debate around the continued usefulness of the ATAR.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shane Duggan receives funding from the Department of Education and Training. </span></em></p>From 2020, ANU will require students to meet co-curricular requirements alongside ATAR. This significant policy shift is meant to improve equity of access, but won’t change much.Shane Duggan, Vice Chancellor's Postdoctoral research fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/877632017-11-20T19:14:27Z2017-11-20T19:14:27Z‘Finkel’s new energy report’ isn’t new and it isn’t by Finkel<p>The headline almost writes itself: “Finkel backs Labor’s renewables policy”. A report released yesterday, <a href="http://acola.org.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/ENRG-final.pdf">The role of energy storage in Australia’s future energy supply mix</a>, has found that Australia can reach <a href="https://theconversation.com/shorten-goes-on-front-foot-over-50-renewables-target-73460">50% renewables by 2030</a> with limited impact on reliability. </p>
<p>It has, inevitably, lead to claims that Labor’s target of 50% renewables by 2030 is both achievable and <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/finkel-shows-were-right-bill-shorten/news-story/3827c0d877c1cc82c2fffa0849ba4b97">correct</a>. But focusing on the politics would be missing the point. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shorten-goes-on-front-foot-over-50-renewables-target-73460">Shorten goes on front foot over 50% renewables 'target'</a>
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<p>It should first be noted that, despite the many <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-20/energy-storage-needed-to-keep-bills-down-finkel-report-warns/9167610">headlines</a> citing his involvement, Australia’s Chief Scientist Alan Finkel did not actually write the report. The report is by the <a href="https://acola.org.au/wp/">Australian Council of Learned Academies</a> (ACOLA), an independent, not-for-profit organisation that brings together Australian academics to provide evidence-based solutions to national and global policy problems. Yes, funding was provided by the Office of the Chief Scientist, and yes, Finkel himself has been supportive of the report, but describing it as a “<a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/new-finkel-report-finds-no-need-to-panic-about-energy-storage-42755/">new Finkel report</a>” is stretching things a little.</p>
<p>The report explores how much energy storage – whether in batteries, pumped hydro or solar thermal – we will need as we increasingly rely on renewable, and therefore intermittent, electricity generation. As more renewable generation enters the system, there needs to be alternative sources of generation, such as storage, that can meet demand when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">Want energy storage? Here are 22,000 sites for pumped hydro across Australia</a>
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<p>The ACOLA report finds that only a small amount of storage would be required to balance a system with 50% renewables. Cue the political debate about the quality of the electricity market modelling that ACOLA relied on to make this finding. </p>
<p>There is far too much focus on electricity market modelling in Australia these days – particularly regarding renewable energy. Finkel’s policies are distrusted and dismissed by people on one side of the debate because they believe his modelling shows <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/nationals-demand-pm-reject-finkel-over-clean-energy-target/news-story/4040a24ef9eeee03e732f18ac1a08377">too high a level of renewables</a>. And the Coalition’s <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/files/publications/documents/Energy%20Security%20Board%20ADVICE....pdf">National Energy Guarantee (NEG)</a> is distrusted and dismissed by people on the other side of the debate because they say it shows <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/frydenberg-told-neg-bad-policy-72411/">too low a level of renewables</a>.</p>
<p>This debate rages on even though no modelling has been revealed; the federal government has promised to unveil the <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/schott-modelling-assumptions-change-but-result-more-or-less-the-same-97327/">modelling behind the NEG</a> at a meeting of the COAG Energy Council this Friday.</p>
<p>The truth is, modelling is an inexact science. The outcomes depend on the assumptions you use and the data you shove in. This is why the results for Finkel and the NEG will differ so much, despite them using the same emissions reduction targets and using emissions reduction mechanisms that impact the market in very similar ways. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-energy-security-board-chair-kerry-schott-on-a-national-energy-plan-86462">Politics podcast: Energy Security Board chair Kerry Schott on a national energy plan</a>
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<p>As it happens, I have limited confidence that you need only a little storage with 50% renewables but a lot of storage at 75% renewables, as ACOLA’s report claims. But the specifics are not important. What is important is that Australia will need something to balance intermittent renewables – and at some point, we will need quite a lot of balancing. </p>
<p>The most important aspect of the ACOLA report is that it brings into focus an unavoidable fact: Australia has serious problems with its electricity system. System security – making sure that the system doesn’t break – is an immediate concern. Reliability – ensuring the system has enough power to meet demand – is a growing problem. And energy storage is a potential solution to both.</p>
<p>ACOLA is not the first to point this out. Finkel’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">blueprint for the National Electricity Market</a>, released in June, identified these concerns. The Australian Energy Market Operator in September identified the need for <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Media_Centre/2017/Advice-To-Commonwealth-Government-On-Dispatchable-Capability.PDF">a new mechanism</a> to address medium-term reliability issues in the market. </p>
<p>Without the right policy settings to address reliability and security concerns, storage will have no chance of helping to fix our energy mess, regardless of the quality of ALOCA’s modelling. </p>
<p>Our politicians need to focus on the substance of this debate, rather than the headlines. Hitting each other over the head because there are too many – or too few – renewables in the policy basket is pointless and will ultimately prove self-defeating. Instead, how about finding an actual policy solution? Starting at this Friday’s COAG Energy Council meeting. Please?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87763/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent report claims that Australia’s energy can reliably come from 50% renewable sources by 2030. But arguing over renewable levels distracts from a paucity of policy.David Blowers, Energy Fellow, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/854542017-10-10T05:29:12Z2017-10-10T05:29:12ZDespite the charged atmosphere, Frydenberg and Finkel have the same goal for electricity<blockquote>
<p>Globally in the past seven years, the cost of wind-powered generation has more than halved. Domestically, solar PV costs have dropped more than 50%. By 2020, costs of battery technologies are expected to fall 40-60% and over 70% to 2030.</p>
<p>It is against this backdrop of a declining cost curve for renewables and storage, greater efficiencies that can be found in thermal generation, and the need for sufficient dispatchable power in the system, that we are considering the Finkel Review’s 50th recommendation [the Clean Energy Target] – to which we’ll respond before the end of the year.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>- Federal Energy and Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ministers-speech-drops-hints-about-backing-away-from-clean-energy-target-20171008-gywsne.html">speaking</a> at the <a href="https://www.informa.com.au/event/afr-national-energy-summit/">AFR National Energy Summit</a>, October 9, 2017</strong></p>
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<p>You need a managed transition. [The Clean Energy Target] remains a useful tool even if there is an extreme rate of reduction in the price of the new technologies.</p>
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<p><strong>- Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chief-scientist-alan-finkel-makes-last-ditch-plea-for-clean-energy-target-20171008-gyww1o.html">speaking</a> later at the same event</strong></p>
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<p>The contrast between Frydenberg and Finkel’s statements has been interpreted as the latter pleading with the former not to cast the Clean Energy Target proposal aside.</p>
<p>But despite the two men’s differing choice of words, they are actually in far closer alignment than many commentators seem to think.</p>
<p>In a wide-ranging speech, Frydenberg put the proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-clean-energy-target-plan-better-than-nothing-economists-poll-82066">Clean Energy Target</a> policy into perspective by noting that sacrificing affordability and reliability for lower emissions would risk losing all three. </p>
<p>He emphasised the government’s commitment to well-regulated markets and innovation. On the latter, he noted the <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-will-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-the-future-here-are-the-numbers-84433">dramatic cost reductions</a> that have already happened in wind and solar energy, and are projected to be achieved in energy storage.</p>
<p>He also focused on the need to fix the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-energy-sector-is-in-critical-need-of-reform-61802">weaknesses in the National Electricity Market</a> that have been highlighted by both the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-finally-a-sensible-and-solid-footing-for-the-electricity-sector-79118">Finkel Review</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-day-australia-was-put-on-blackout-alert-83574">Australian Energy Market Operator</a>.</p>
<p>Frydenberg brought these elements together in stating that the government would consider the 50th Finkel recommendation (which includes the Clean Energy Target) against the backdrop of the falling costs of renewables, the efficiencies available in thermal generation, and the need for <a href="https://theconversation.com/baffled-by-baseload-dumbfounded-by-dispatchables-heres-a-glossary-of-the-energy-debate-84212">dispatchable power</a>. </p>
<p>Sitting in the audience, I heard a clear message from the minister that whatever policy emerges this year must address all of these issues. Having no policy is not an option, despite what you may have read about the government being ready to “walk away” from the Clean Energy Target.</p>
<h2>Positive policy</h2>
<p>Finkel was similarly strong in his comments on the direction and pace of technology changes in the energy industry. He also made the connection between reducing emissions (via his Clean Energy Target proposal), and ensuring reliability (through his Generator Reliability Obligation). Together, he said, these two features will help to shape the “managed transition” he envisages for Australia’s electricity market.</p>
<p>The language of the politician will inevitably differ from that of the scientist, and it is easy for those with a cynical view to present this as evidence of a schism between the two. </p>
<p>But here is my more positive interpretation. We should not expect the Finkel-designed Clean Energy Target to become a reality. But we can hope for a policy response that fundamentally delivers the same result – affordable, reliable electricity in line with our emissions reduction target.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood owns shares in energy and resources companies via his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>Talk of the government preparing to ‘walk away’ from the Clean Energy Target proposal is unnecessarily cynical.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800102017-06-23T22:36:21Z2017-06-23T22:36:21ZPolitics podcast: Alan Finkel on the future of Australia’s energy market<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175460/original/file-20170623-12648-1xnnb54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite the government still considering his proposal for a clean energy target (CET) – after endorsing his other 49 recommendations – Chief Scientist Alan Finkel is optimistic the CET remains firmly on the agenda.</p>
<p>Finkel’s challenging task has been to put forward a scheme to bring Australia’s energy market into the future, providing certainty for investment and supply. His plan has required a balance between appeasing consumers on prices and meeting Australia’s commitments on climate change. </p>
<p>This is made harder by the desire of many in the government to push on with developing new “clean-coal-fired” power stations, a term Finkel describes as “a murky concept”. “There is no prohibitions in any of our recommendations. The government has to decide whether to license new technologies,” he says.</p>
<p>Asked about the concept of “reverse auctions” – better called competitive tenders – he says this is “widely recognised to be the most cost-effective means of bringing the lowest cost solution into the market”. But that’s dependent on the wisdom of the entity running the auction rather than the wisdom of investors.</p>
<p>Overall, Finkel acknowledges there’s a hard road ahead for policymaking on energy. “Transitions are always painful,” he says.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alan Finkel acknowledges there's a hard road ahead for policymaking on energy.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793372017-06-19T08:31:50Z2017-06-19T08:31:50ZAre heatwaves ‘worsening’ and have ‘hot days’ doubled in Australia in the last 50 years?<p>The release of the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel report</a> has refocused national attention on climate change, and how we know it’s happening. </p>
<p>On a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4667968.htm">Q&A episode</a> following the report’s release, Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said we’ve seen:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… worsening heatwaves, hot days doubling in Australia in the last 50 years.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/691IhjQ0iDk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, June 12, 2017. Quote begins at 2:12.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Her comment provides the perfect opportunity to revisit exactly what the research says on heatwaves and hot days as Australia’s climate warms.</p>
<h2>Examining the evidence</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support McKenzie’s assertion, a Climate Council spokesperson said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Climate change is making hot days and heatwaves <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">more frequent</a> and <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/heatwaves-report">more severe</a>. Since 1950 the annual number of record hot days <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">across Australia</a> has <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/extreme-weather-report">more than doubled</a> and the mean temperature has <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">increased by about 1°C</a> from 1910. </p>
<p>Specifically, there has been an increase of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">0.2 days/year since 1957</a> which means, on average, that there are almost 12 more days per year over 35°C. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>You can read full response from the Climate Council <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-spokesperson-for-the-climate-council-79415">here</a>.</p>
<h2>How do we define ‘heatwaves’?</h2>
<p>Internationally, organisations use <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040%3C0762%3AOTDOAH%3E2.0.CO%3B2">different</a> <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014023/meta">definitions</a> for
heatwaves.</p>
<p>In Australia, the most commonly used definition (and the one used by the Climate Council) is from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). It provided the first <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">national definition of a heatwave</a> in January 2014, describing it as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A period of at least three days where the combined effect of excess heat and heat stress is unusual with respect to the local climate. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are used in this assessment.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The BOM uses a metric called the “<a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">excess heat factor</a>” to decide what heat is “unusual”. It combines the average temperature over three days with the average temperature for a given location and time of year; and how the three day average temperature compares to temperatures over the last 30 days.</p>
<p>We can also characterise heatwaves by looking at their their <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">intensity, frequency and duration</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers, including Australian climate scientist <a href="http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/ccrc-team/academic-research/sarah-perkins-kirkpatrick">Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick</a>, are trying to <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">standardise</a> the definitions of “heatwaves” and “hot days” and create a framework that allows for more in-depth studies of these events.</p>
<h2>Are heatwaves ‘worsening’?</h2>
<p>There’s not a large body of research against which to test this claim. But the <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">research we do have</a> suggests there has been an observable <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-doubled-the-likelihood-of-the-new-south-wales-heatwave-72871">increase</a> in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Australia. Research <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">published in 2013</a> found a trend towards more heat waves in Australia between 1951 and 2008.</p>
<p>A review paper published in 2016 assessed evidence from multiple studies and found that heatwaves are becoming <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0">more intense and more frequent</a> for the majority of Australia.</p>
<p>The following chart shows heatwave days per decade from 1950 to 2013, highlighting a trend toward more heatwave days in Australia over time:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’ve seen a trend towards more heatwave days over Australia. Trends are shown for 1950-2013 in units of heatwave days per decade. Stippling indicates statistical significance at the 5% level.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al. (2017)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Have hot days ‘doubled’ in the last 50 years?</h2>
<p>While the number of “hot days” (as defined by the BOM) has not doubled over the last 50 years, as McKenzie said, the number of “record hot days” certainly has. “Record hot days” are days when the maximum temperature sets a new record high. </p>
<p>Given that McKenzie made her statement on a fast paced live TV show, it’s reasonable to assume she was referring to the latter. Let’s look at both figures. </p>
<p>The BOM <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/about/extremes.shtml">defines</a> “hot days” as days with a maximum temperature higher than 35°C. The BOM data show there were more hot days in Australia in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 than in any of the 50 years from 1966 to 2016 (the last year for which data are available). </p>
<p>In fact, there were more hot days in the years 2013-2016 than in any other year as far back as 1910. If we compare the decades 1966-76 and 2006-16, we see a 27% increase in the number of hot days.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wsR9Z/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The following map shows the trend in the number of days per year above 35 °C from 1957–2015:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A 2010 <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO report</a> found <em>record hot days</em> had more than doubled between 1960 and 2010. That data was collected from <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/">the highest-quality weather stations across Australia</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of record hot day maximums at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology 2010</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of days in each year where the Australian area-averaged daily mean temperature is extreme. Extreme days are those above the 99th percentile of each month from the years 1910-2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are heatwaves worsening, and record hot days doubling?</h2>
<p>The trend in <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries">rising average temperatures in Australia</a> in the second half of the 20th century is likely to have been largely caused by <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-3265.1">human-induced climate change</a>.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50673/full">record hot summers</a> and <a href="http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/23_australian_s_heat.pdf">significant heatwaves</a> were also made much more likely by humans’ effect on the climate.</p>
<p>The human influence on Australian summer temperatures <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067448/full">has increased</a> and we can expect <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0183.1">more frequent hot summers</a> and <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1">heatwaves</a> as the Earth continues to warm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie told Q&A that heatwaves were ‘worsening’ in Australia and ‘hot days’ had doubled in the last 50 years. Let’s take a look at the evidence.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/778632017-05-21T20:10:21Z2017-05-21T20:10:21ZPoliticians: please ease off on ‘announceables’ until after the electricity market review<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170068/original/file-20170519-12254-c3w5l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Current political intervention in the energy market is haphazard and disconnected. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chriscrowder/12350135075/">chriscrowder_4/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A series of dramatic events over the past year, most notably the September <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">statewide blackout in South Australia</a>, have revealed an electricity system under strain, and left many Australians worried about the reliability of their power supply.</p>
<p>In response, state and federal politicians have announced a series of uncoordinated and potentially expensive interventions, most notably the Turnbull government’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/snowy-hydro-20-malcolm-turnbull-announces-plans-for-2-billion-expansion-20170315-guyozj.html">Snowy Hydro 2.0</a> proposal and the South Australian government’s <a href="http://ourenergyplan.sa.gov.au/">go-it-alone power plan</a>. </p>
<p>Yet all of these plans pre-empt the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel Review</a>, to be released early next month. Commissioned by state and federal governments and led by Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel, the review is expected to provide a new blueprint for the National Electricity Market (NEM).</p>
<p>Clearly, Australia is struggling to manage the transition to a zero- or low-emission electricity grid, and some commentators have concluded that <a href="http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/malcolm-turnbull-needs-to-show-he-can-fix-broken-energy-market-20170316-guzmwh">the NEM is broken</a>. </p>
<p>In our report <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/powering-through/">Powering Through</a>, released today, we argue that it is too early to give up on the market. But what we really need is substantial market reforms, rather than piecemeal government investments in various energy projects.</p>
<h2>Australia’s troubled transition</h2>
<p>The problems are everywhere. Consumers have been hit with a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/price-shock/">70% hike in real-terms electricity bills over the past decade</a>, and there is more to come. Wholesale prices for electricity in most eastern states were <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/quarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices">twice as high last summer</a> as the one before. </p>
<p>New vulnerabilities continue to emerge. The headline-grabber was South Australia’s blackout – the first statewide blackout since the NEM was formed in 1998 – but there have been other smaller blackouts and incidents too. </p>
<p>Poisonous politics means Australia is also <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/climate-phoenix-a-sustainable-australian-climate-policy/">failing to stay on track to hit its 2030 climate targets</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-government-rules-out-an-emissions-intensity-scheme-70039">mixed messages</a> on climate policy; the seemingly ad hoc public investment announcements; the threat of direct intervention in the activities of the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/">market operator</a> – all of this has created <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-emitters-opt-to-wait-and-see-over-emissions-reduction-fund-77160">enormous uncertainty for private investors</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: Australia has enough electricity generation capacity for now, but <a href="can%20we%20link%20to%20relevant%20demand%20projection%20here?">more will be needed in the decade ahead</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170070/original/file-20170519-12242-1v0tt1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The energy market is in a difficult transition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/klangbug/482848561/">georg_neu/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>First, do no harm</h2>
<p>There is currently an acute danger of politicians panicking and rushing into decisions that will only push electricity prices higher, and make the task of reducing Australia’s emissions harder.</p>
<p>Already, federal and state governments are committing taxpayers’ money to <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-gas-and-hydro-plans-the-government-is-looking-at-the-whole-picture-76976">new energy investments</a>. This is premature, with the Finkel Review’s recommendations not yet released. Stampeding white elephants loom ominously on the horizon. </p>
<p>Given the current uncertainties, it is vital not to grasp for expensive “solutions” or to lock in plans too soon. We do not yet know what technology mix will be needed in the future. Maintaining flexibility through the transition will ensure we can take advantage of the best solutions as they emerge.</p>
<h2>‘No regrets’ short-term reforms</h2>
<p>There are some “no regrets” moves that can and should be made, to address the short-term risks to the electricity system and buy time to resolve the longer-term ones. Australia should build on existing low-cost mechanisms before making major capital investments or redesigning the market.</p>
<p>The immediate challenge is to reduce the risk of blackouts next summer, in South Australia and Victoria especially. Most blackouts happen because something in the system breaks. Some simple changes to the market rules, <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/business/energy/businesses-households-to-be-paid-to-use-less-electricity-next-summer-20170518-gw840k.html">like the recent AEMO and ARENA announcement to pay consumers to cut their electricity use</a>, would make a big difference to managing equipment failures when they inevitably arise. </p>
<p>To ensure reserves are on hand, some mothballed generators should be recalled to service. Pleasingly, Origin Energy and Engie have already <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/origin-energy-to-provide-gas-to-pelican-point-plant-in-sa-20170328-gv8nau">struck a deal</a> to enable the restart of the second turbine of the Pelican Point generator in South Australia. </p>
<h2>The longer-term task</h2>
<p>The cheapest and most effective way to reduce long-term risks is to rebuild investor confidence. That requires Australia to agree, finally, on a credible climate policy. A carbon price is the best such policy, but any bipartisan policy that works with the electricity market and is capable of hitting Australia’s emissions targets will be a vast improvement on what we have now. </p>
<p>The transition to a zero-emissions electricity sector will be difficult. Even given a credible climate policy, there are still questions as to whether the current electricity market will be able to meet our future needs. And that’s without even mentioning the gas market, which is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-gas-market-enters-the-red-zone-as-predicted-74314">frankly a mess</a>. </p>
<p>Politicians should begin by adopting pragmatic market reforms and giving clear direction on climate and energy policy. At the very least, they should wait until Finkel delivers his recommendations. </p>
<p>Hopefully the Finkel Review will define Australia’s energy security and emissions reduction needs, and provide a strong platform for politicians to work from. If so, a competitive market will find the cheapest path to a reliable and low-emissions electricity future. </p>
<p>The danger is that partisan politics will make the best policies untenable. If that happens, we can expect the blame to be shifted onto the market, which will be described as having “failed” – but the truth is that it will have been systematically (if not quite intentionally) destroyed.</p>
<p>More likely still is that governments give up on the market without giving it a chance. Scott Morrison’s budget promise of new <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2017-government-goes-hard-on-gas-and-hydro-in-bid-for-energy-security-77398">federally owned power generation</a> set a worrying precedent. If recent announcements deter private investors, still more government investment will be needed, which will shift yet more risk and cost onto taxpayers.</p>
<p>There’s a real danger of politicians focusing on “announceables” and shying away from the market reforms that will make the biggest difference to the affordability, reliability and sustainability of our electricity supply.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The energy security crisis has politicians leaping to unveil various schemes. But we don’t need piecemeal action – the Finkel review, due in June, aims to create a coherent new energy blueprint.David Blowers, Energy Fellow, Grattan InstituteKate Griffiths, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/778572017-05-18T04:17:41Z2017-05-18T04:17:41ZWe don’t have a gas shortfall worth worrying about<p>Australia was warned earlier this year that a shortage of gas could create an energy crisis. A report from the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Gas/National-planning-and-forecasting/Gas-Statement-of-Opportunities">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> (AEMO) suggested a shortfall could occur in 3 of the next 13 years.</p>
<p>This report was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-09/looming-gas-shortage-%20will-threaten-nations-power-supplies/8337204">widely reported</a> in the national media, with sensational headlines like “<a href="http://at.theaustralian.com.au/link/7698843e5cbb21ec9ef7b7fa0b2d11c1?domain=theaustralian.com.au">AEMO warns of blackouts as gas runs out</a>”.</p>
<p>A couple of weeks ago, in a dramatic intervention, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull declared that there was a shortage of gas supplies for eastern Australia and that <a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-export-restrictions-imposed-to-ensure-domestic-supply-76740">certain restrictions</a> may be placed on gas exports. </p>
<p>But do we really need “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4632879.htm">more gas supply and more gas suppliers</a>”? In a report published <a href="http://climate-energy-college.org/short-lived-gas-shortfall">today</a>, my colleague <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-forcey-104740">Tim Forcey</a> and I review AEMO’s initial report and its results and recommendations. Our work finds there is a shortage of “cheap” gas, but not a gas supply “shortfall”. Moreover, high gas prices combined with falling renewable and storage costs mean that there are cheaper options than developing new gas resources.</p>
<h2>What gas shortfall?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1147&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1147&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169757/original/file-20170517-6030-1j6gziq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1147&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">AEMO forecast of electricity generated by fuel source, showing AEMO’s forecast supply gap as a thin red line at the top of the stack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The AEMO report suggests that eastern Australia face a shortfall in 3 of the next 13 financial years – 2018-19, 2020-21 and 2021-22. The largest gap modelled by AEMO is equal to only 0.19% of the annual electricity supply, or 363 gigawatt hours.</p>
<p>In gas supply terms, this is equivalent to only 0.2% of the annual gas supply. But AEMO’s modelling considers a range of possible scenarios, with a variation of roughly plus or minus 5%, far larger than the possible shortfall.</p>
<p>Just 11 days after the report warning of a supply gap, AEMO published <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report">updated electricity demand forecasts</a>. In this update, AEMO reduced its forecast electricity demand by roughly 1%. This reduction in demand is more than four times greater than the largest forecast shortfall. </p>
<p>A day later, Shell announced it would proceed with <a href="https://www.i-q.net.au/main/project-ruby-to-see-161-well-push-in-surat-basin">Project Ruby</a>, a gas field with 161 new wells. This was not included in the AEMO modelling process. </p>
<h2>Alternatives to gas</h2>
<p>Gas has historically been characterised as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-changes-its-tune-on-gas-as-way-to-mitigate-climate-change-25635">transition fuel</a> on the pathway to a zero-emissions power system. The falling costs of renewable energy and storage technologies combined with rising gas costs means this pathway and may indeed be a detour, particularly when taking into account Australia’s climate commitments.</p>
<p>This is also a sentiment increasingly reflected by the industry, with gas producer <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170502/pdf/43hyq45t7r3mps.pdf">AGL suggesting</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the National Electricity Market […] here in Australia could transition
directly from being dominated by coal-fired baseload to being dominated by storable renewables.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gas generation generally falls into two categories: open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) and combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT). These two technologies effectively play different roles in the energy sector. Open cycle turbines are highly flexible, and are used occasionally over the year to provide peak capacity. Combined cycle turbines, on the other hand, operate continuously and provide large amounts of energy over a year. </p>
<p>Each of these technologies is now under competitive threat from renewable generation and storage. Flexible capacity can also be provided by energy storage technologies, while bulk energy can be provided by renewable energy. These are compared below.</p>
<h2>Energy: renewables vs gas</h2>
<p>The chart below compares the cost of providing bulk energy with gas and renewable technologies. We’ve represented the price of new CCGT, PV (which stands for <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-photovoltaic-solar-energy-12924">photovoltic solar</a>) and wind as the cost of providing energy over the lifetime of the plant. </p>
<p>The other two gas generation costs illustrated, CCGT and Steam, represent the cost of energy from existing plants, at their respective thermal efficiencies. The steam thermal efficiency is similar to that of a highly flexible open cycle gas turbine.</p>
<p>Surprisingly – and depending somewhat on gas price and capital cost assumptions – <em>new</em> renewable energy projects provide cheaper energy than <em>existing</em> gas generators. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169760/original/file-20170517-2399-oylfli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison of energy cost from new and existing gas with new renewable energy generation. The range of solar (PV) and wind costs reflect different capital cost assumptions, while the range of gas costs reflects gas price assumptions. CCGT refers to Combined Cycle Gas Turbine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Flexible capacity: storage vs gas</h2>
<p>The next chart compares the cost of providing flexible capacity from gas and storage technologies (again, taking the cost over the lifetime of the plant). </p>
<p>In this analysis we compare the cost of capacity from OCGT with that from diesel and various storage technologies, including battery and Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES). As can be seen, storage technologies can compete with OCGT in providing flexible capacity, depending on technology and capital cost. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169761/original/file-20170517-24725-7uvhdg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison of flexible capacity cost from gas (OCGT), diesel and storage technologies generation, including battery and Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES) . The range of costs reflect different capital cost assumptions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another option, not shown here, is demand response. This is the strategy of giving consumers incentives to reduce their energy use during critical times, and is cheaper again. </p>
<p>What is clear is AEMO’s forecast gas shortfall is very small, and that it may have already been made up by revised demand forecasts and new gas field developments. But the question of how Australia should deal with any future shortfall invites a larger debate, including the role of gas in our electricity system, and whether the falling costs of renewable energy and storage technology mean we’ve outgrown gas.</p>
<p><br></p>
<hr>
<p><em><a href="http://climate-energy-college.org/short-lived-gas-shortfall">The short-lived gas shortfall: A review of AEMOs warning of gas-supply ‘shortfalls’</a> was prepared by Tim Forcey and Dylan McConnell.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p>Earlier this year Australia’s energy market operator warned of a gas shortage, sparking fears of an energy crisis. But new research shows the projected shortfall is so small, it may already be closed.Dylan McConnell, Researcher at the Australian German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/497442015-10-27T00:41:31Z2015-10-27T00:41:31ZReaction: Alan Finkel to be Australia’s next Chief Scientist<p><em>Engineer, entrepreneur and philanthropist, Dr Alan Finkel, has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/alan-finkel-to-be-australias-new-chief-scientist-49733">appointed</a> Australia’s new Chief Scientist, and will assume the post in 2016 once the current Chief Scientist, Professor Ian Chubb, completes his five year term.</em></p>
<p><em>Members of the Australian scientific community have offered their reactions to the news of Dr Finkel’s appointment.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Professor Merlin Crossley</strong><br>
<em>Dean of Science, University of New South Wales</em></p>
<p>Many scientists will be delighted at the news. Alan Finkel is a brilliant, energetic and persuasive communicator. He is passionate about science and has been a champion of education at all levels. He understands the importance of knowledge and its applications, and he has a record of success as an entrepreneur and business leader. </p>
<p>Through his magazine, <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/">Cosmos</a>, he has an enormous breadth of scientific knowledge, and having been Chancellor of Monash University, he knows what universities can do when they have the right vision. </p>
<p>He’s someone with the intelligence and confidence to be able to drive an ambitious and positive agenda. He’ll be able to advocate strategies that work and help the government to see through sensible policies, rather than jumping from one doomed short term fix to another. </p>
<p>Ian Chubb will be a hard act to follow but it is great to see someone like Alan Finkel take over, and I’m sure he’ll help the government enact good policies in critical areas, like inspiring school kids via pure science, providing fellowships for our young researchers, sustainably funding research infrastructure, engaging with industry, and finally using scientific thinking to address the grand challenges facing our nation.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Professor Brian Schmidt</strong><br>
<em>Distinguished Professor, Australian National University</em></p>
<p>Alan Finkel is worthy successor to Ian Chubb. His experience as scholar, innovator, businessman, and university chancellor covers the whole gambit of science-related activities, and is underpinned by a great personal enthusiasm for the betterment of Australia. I look forward to working with Alan in the years to come.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Sir Gustav Nossal</strong><br>
<em>Emeritus Professor in the Department of Pathology at the University of Melbourne</em></p>
<p>This is truly the most fantastic news. [Alan] Finkel is an extraordinary leader. He has proven himself in personal scientific research. He has succeeded in business in competitive fields. He has worked for the public good, most notably in his presidency of the Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering. </p>
<p>He has been unbelievably generous in philanthropy, supporting exciting causes. He has shown leadership in the university world. He is a scientific publisher of note. Beyond all this, he is a person of the highest intelligence, integrity and imagination.</p>
<p>It is difficult to think of anyone who would do this important job with greater distinction.</p>
<p>As an aside, Australia may be “getting two for the price of one”, as his wife, Elizabeth Finkel, is a distinguished science journalist and author.</p>
<p>This news has made my day, my week, my month and my year.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Professor Les Field</strong><br>
<em>Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research) & Vice-President at the University of New South Wales</em></p>
<p>The announcement of Alan Finkel as Chief Scientist is great news. I can think of nobody better suited to the role and to fill the enormous shoes that Ian Chubb will leave behind. </p>
<p>Alan brings a strong research background as well as wealth of experience in both academia and industry. He understands first hand the importance of excellence as well industry engagement in driving innovation and that’s exactly what Australia needs to drive policy forward over the next few years.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Professor Peter Doherty</strong><br>
<em>Laureate Professor from the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the University of Melbourne and Nobel Laureate for Medicine in 1996</em></p>
<p>Alan is a successful science entrepreneur, a philanthropist and a dedicated supporter of public science communication. His appointment as Chief Scientist is to be greatly welcomed, and it is a measure of the man that he is prepared to take on this complex task. </p>
<p>With Canberra’s new spirit of openness to innovation and thinking in terms of the future, at least in the parliament, there is a good possibility that his voice will be heard and we will again see Australia moving forward.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Dr Andrew Siebel</strong> <br>
<em>Deputy Chair, Australian Early- and Mid-Career Researcher (EMCR) Forum at the Australian Academy of Science, and Senior Research Officer at Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute</em></p>
<p>The EMCR Forum is delighted with the appointment of Dr Alan Finkel as the next Chief Scientist of Australia. As President of the Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) and founder of Cosmos magazine, Professor Finkel has been a great advocate for science and technology. His insight and experience in industry and academia will bring enormous value to the position previously held by Professor Ian Chubb. </p>
<p>The Prime Minister vowed last week to put science “at the centre” of his government’s agenda and at the “very heart” of its future. This appointment demonstrates a focus on innovation and translation of science into industry, and an emphasis on science education and literacy.</p>
<p>In 2013, Australia ranked 18th out of 20 advanced economies for government R&D spending as a share of GDP. Finkel’s appointment strengthens the call for Australia to lift public and private R&D from 2.2% of GDP to 3%. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Professor Frieder Seible</strong><br>
<em>Academic Vice-President (Industry Engagement), Dean of Engineering and Dean of Information Technology, Monash University</em></p>
<p>I think this is the ideal appointment. As a scientist and entrepreneur, Alan is always looking for innovation and that’s exactly what Australia and society needs right now. As Chancellor here at Monash he is highly engaged and at the forefront of every major project and operation – I think he will bring the same qualities to his new role as Chief Scientist. </p>
<p>Another one of Alan’s key characteristics is his inquisitive nature. No matter the scientific topic, he always wants to probe deeper. Again, I think this makes him ideally suited for this role.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Merlin Crossley works for the University of New South Wales, and is on the boards of the Australian Museum, Australian Science Media Centre, EMBL Australia and Sydney Institute of Marine Science. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Schmidt is Chair of Astronomy Australia Limited, a not for profit company that receives funds, including those from NCRIS, to invest in National Astronomy Infrastructure. He is a non-executive director of the Australian Wine Research Institute, which has received funding as part of past NCRIS programs. His research is funded by from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gus Nossal is a consultant for the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; and a Principal of Foursight Associates Pty Ltd. He was formerly Chairman of The Global Foundation Advisory Committee and Deputy Chairman of the Council for Aboriginal Reconciliation (1998 to 2000). He is a fellow of the Australian Academy of Science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter C. Doherty is funded to work on immunity to the influenza A viruses as part of an NHMRC Program Grant. He is also a member of The Conversation's board of directors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Siebel, Frieder Seible, and Les Field do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The scientific community reacts to the news that Dr Alan Finkel has been appointed Australia’s New Chief Scientist as of 2016.Merlin Crossley, Dean of Science and Professor of Molecular Biology, UNSW SydneyAndrew Siebel, Senior Research Officer, Metabolic and Vascular Physiology, Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteBrian Schmidt, Distinguished Professor, Australian National UniversityFrieder Seible, Academic Vice-President; Dean of the Engineering Faculty and Dean of the Information Technology, Monash UniversityGustav Nossal, Professor Emeritus , Walter and Eliza Hall InstituteLes Field, Secretary for Science Policy at the Australian Academy of Science, and Vice-President & Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research), UNSW SydneyPeter C. Doherty, Laureate Professor, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and ImmunityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.