tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/bolsa-familia-25787/articlesBolsa Familia – The Conversation2024-02-20T13:17:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231412024-02-20T13:17:39Z2024-02-20T13:17:39ZHow Lula’s big-tent pragmatism won over Brazil again – with a little help from a backlash to Bolsonaro<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576290/original/file-20240217-26-3ec1u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C58%2C5473%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazilian President Lula greets journalists, in Brasilia, one year after rioters stormed the presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court buildings.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBrazilRiotsOneYear/ba4ead6af3f84bd587b23503bf8dd425/photo?Query=lula&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7372&currentItemNo=41">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A year is a long time in Brazilian politics.</p>
<p>When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/01/1146518711/leftist-lula-brazil-sworn-in-president">assumed office in Brazil for a third time</a> in January 2023, many <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/lula-faces-challenges-in-brazil-after-win-over-bolsonaro?sref=Hjm5biAW">observers were pessimistic</a> about the returning president’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/31/luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-presidential-victory-brazil-sweet-govern">chances of governing successfully</a>. </p>
<p>The president, now 78 years old, had recently defeated <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/jair-bolsonaro-brazil.html">Jair Bolsonaro</a>, the hard-right former president, by a narrow margin – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-votes-heated-bolsonaro-vs-lula-presidential-runoff-2022-10-30/">50.9% to 49.1%</a>. But despite that victory, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-politics-brazil-government-florida-state-south-america-8d7e202b93b6cba7196c4baba32b6452">many Brazilian state governments</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/right-wing-wins-brazils-congress-show-staying-power-bolsonarismo-2022-10-03/">as well as the country’s Congress</a>, remained dominated by followers of Bolsonaro.</p>
<p>Following his electoral loss in 2022, Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-declines-to-concede-defeat">refused at first to acknowledge defeat</a>. He <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-says-no-justification-attempted-terrorist-act-capital-2022-12-30/">declined to take part</a> in the traditional passing of the presidential sash during Lula’s Jan. 1, 2023, inauguration ceremony.</p>
<p>Then a week later, on Jan. 8, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">invaded and vandalized</a> Brazil’s presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court buildings in Brasília, the capital, in an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/09/1230337023/a-former-president-in-brazil-is-accused-of-trying-to-overturn-his-election-defea">alleged attempt to trigger a state of siege and annul</a> Lula’s win.</p>
<p>The attempted insurrection failed but nonetheless left a lingering gloom about the state of politics in Brazil.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-riots-anniversary-one-year-b49854a5bc0c3ee82aefca6b719c51b1">A year later</a>, the pessimism seems to have been unwarranted.</p>
<h2>Political unity</h2>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.atlasintel.org/polls/general-release-polls">Atlas Intel poll</a>, 52% of Brazilians said they <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06/brazil-s-lula-starts-second-year-with-popularity-on-the-rise?sref=Hjm5biAW">approve of Lula’s performance</a>, while 58% responded that they see the government’s performance as “very good,” “good” or “OK.” In contrast, 39% described it as “bad” or “very bad.”</p>
<p>How has Lula’s administration managed, at least so far, to beat expectations?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TY-ajWEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of Brazilian politics</a>, I believe his popularity has a lot to do with what happened on Jan. 8, 2023. The attack in Brasilia has apparently <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-08/a-year-after-brazil-capital-riots-bolsonaro-s-right-wing-movement-seeks-rebrand?sref=Hjm5biAW">defused the right-wing threat</a> to Lula’s hold on power. With a police investigation in February 2024 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/world/americas/brazil-police-raid-bolsonaro-attempted-coup-investigation.html">zeroing in on Bolsonaro and his inner circle</a>, the former president appears to be in no position to mount a challenge.</p>
<p>At the same time, Lula has kept his <a href="https://time.com/6226269/how-lula-won-brazil-election/">broad coalition</a> largely intact by working with pragmatic members of Congress who don’t belong to his leftist political party to build and maintain a legislative majority.</p>
<p>The Jan. 8 attack was followed by a <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/in-brazil-another-way-to-remember-an-attempted-coup/">show of political unity</a> in Brazil. Most politicians, including many who supported Bolsonaro’s reelection, condemned the assault on democracy. </p>
<p>Similarly, a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/americas/brazil-riots-condemned-polling-intl/index.html">large majority</a> of Brazilians condemned the attack and approved of measures to investigate and prosecute those behind the attempted coup.</p>
<p>Here, too, Lula appears to have played his hand well. Rather than use the opportunity to purge Bolsonaro supporters from key positions in the government, he refrained from installing his own loyalists.</p>
<p>For example, when the governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha, was suspended over his handling of the unrest, his vice governor – a <a href="https://opopular.com.br/politica/conheca-celina-le-o-bolsonarista-goiana-que-assume-o-governo-do-df-no-lugar-de-ibaneis-rocha-1.2592425">Bolsonaro supporter – was allowed to replace him</a>.</p>
<h2>Bolsonaro’s convictions</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the investigation and prosecution of Bolsonaro and his inner circle have <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/13/world/politics/bolsonaro-coup-probe-brazil-opposition/">weakened the political right</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/30/americas/bolsonaro-court-abuse-of-power-ruling-intl-latam/index.html">convicted of abusing political power and misusing public media</a> in June 2023. That case dealt with a meeting before the 2022 elections in which he told foreign ambassadors that Brazil’s electronic voting system was subject to fraud and that the Supreme Court was prepared to favor Lula.</p>
<p>Due to that conviction, Bolsonaro, who is now 68 years old, cannot run for office for the next eight years.</p>
<p>In October 2023, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court <a href="https://en.mercopress.com/2023/11/02/bolsonaro-and-braga-netto-guilty-of-politically-using-independence-day-celebrations">convicted Bolsonaro again</a>, this time for abusing political power during an independence day celebration.</p>
<p>As of February 2024, Brazil’s Federal Police are investigating the Bolsonaro administration’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-ramagem-bolsonaro-police-spying-18d039c5e111e18341afe8ee2fb4428d">alleged use of an intelligence agency to spy on its political enemies</a> and the alleged attempt of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-police-bolsonaro-allies-search-coup-a060e6570a03f9b094ebdcfa2847736d">some Bolsonaro insiders to subvert</a> the results of the 2022 elections. </p>
<p>While such investigations could be perceived as political, Lula’s government has been somewhat insulated from such criticism because Brazil’s government can influence, but not control, its judiciary.</p>
<p>Moreover Lula has stressed the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/22/brazils-incoming-president-lula-unveils-more-cabinet-picks">collaborative nature of his administration</a>, presenting it as a <a href="https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article8106">coalition government that is not ruled exclusively by his party</a>.</p>
<h2>Broad coalition</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://valorinternational.globo.com/politics/news/2022/10/30/with-small-governing-coalition-lula-will-have-to-negotiate-with-opposition.ghtml">center-left coalition of 10 parties</a> that backed Lula’s presidential bid has grown since he took office. Two cabinet positions even went to <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/brazil-lula-adds-bolsonaro-supporters-to-cabinet/a-66741324">politicians who had supported Bolsonaro in the past</a>.</p>
<p>Lula’s party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, or Workers’ Party, holds only six of the 31 cabinet positions. And the president has had to exert his influence over his own party to keep dissenting voices within it at bay.</p>
<p>Lula’s willingness to work with Congress and his big tent approach to consensus-building starkly contrast with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/25/bolsonaro-return-brazil/">Bolsonaro’s political polarization</a>.</p>
<p>On Feb. 1, 2023, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-brazil-government-caribbean-democracy-02535a22bdeaf2b24e04bb1a20638597">Rodrigo Pacheco, the Senate’s president, and Arthur Lira</a>, who is president of Brazil’s lower house of Congress, were reelected. Lula chose to support their candidacies despite both men being allied with Bolsonaro in the 2022 election campaign.</p>
<p>Once the congressional term began, Lula was able to use his experience and personal relationships with lawmakers to build the majorities that now support his agenda.</p>
<p>Lula has <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/12/05/world-bank-to-support-new-phase-of-brazil-s-bolsa-familia-program">revived his signature Bolsa Familia program</a>, which provides 21 million families – more than a quarter of the population – with an average of R$670 reais (US$136) per month. Brazil has <a href="https://wageindicator.org/salary/minimum-wage/minimum-wages-news/2024/general-minimum-wage-revised-in-brazil-from-01-january-2024-january-08-2024">increased the minimum wage</a> in real terms and is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-economy-lula-tax-congress-522843f46c3b904ed33cf8940785fe46">streamlining and simplifying its tax system</a> in ways that will help individual taxpayers and businesses. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A short man in a suit salutes while surrounded by other men in suits, clasping a tall one's hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lula waves while shaking hands with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-brazil-government-caribbean-democracy-02535a22bdeaf2b24e04bb1a20638597">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Stability is a big plus</h2>
<p>What makes the popularity and repositioning of Lula as a unity leader all the more remarkable is that the left-wing politican was himself seen as a divisive figure not too long ago. But Bolsonaro’s presidency changed the tenor of Brazilian politics.</p>
<p>Most Brazilians today appear to want to overcome the divisions Bolsonaro promoted and favor stability and predictable policies over seeing their own side dominate the government.</p>
<p>Lula’s popularity has also benefited from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/brazil-economy-grows-slightly-in-third-quarter-as-slowdown-looms?sref=Hjm5biAW">Brazil’s economy, which performed far better in 2023</a> than many economists had expected.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/brazil-inflation-ends-2023-in-target-range-286aa1aa">Inflation fell to 4.6%</a> at the end of 2023, less than half the <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/core-inflation-rate">pace it was running a year earlier</a>. Gross domestic product <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=BR">grew 3% last year, about the same rate as in 2022</a>. And <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room/2185-news-agency/releases-en/39208-quarterly-continuous-pnad-unemployment-retreats-in-two-fus-in-q4-2023">unemployment fell to 7.4%</a>, the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.NE.ZS?locations=BR">lowest level since 2014</a>. </p>
<p>The strong economy has helped boost Lula’s popularity because he has been able to assure centrists that he’s governing responsibly.</p>
<p>In politics, as with investing, past performance does not guarantee future returns. But for now, Lula’s pragmatic coalition-building and his careful negotiations with Congress are paying off.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pereira has received funding from the Inter-American Foundation and the Organization of American States.</span></em></p>The third-term president has used his experience and personal relationships with lawmakers to build the majorities that now support his agenda.Anthony Pereira, Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976732023-01-30T13:14:44Z2023-01-30T13:14:44ZBrazil’s economic challenges are again Lula’s to tackle – this time around they’re more daunting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505670/original/file-20230120-15684-t92yp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C17%2C3917%2C2329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bolstering Brazil's economy will be hard if there's a global recession.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-gestures-during-news-photo/1246116883?adppopup=true">Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even when they’re in trouble, Brazilians rarely lose their sense of humor. But in recent years, their joviality has often given way to <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-06/Culture%20wars%20around%20the%20world%20_0.pdf">political division</a> everywhere from social media to the dinner table.</p>
<p>One <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-no-longer-the-country-of-the-future-59505">familiar quip</a> – that Brazil is the country of the future and always will be – has lost its levity as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva begins his third <a href="https://www.gov.br/secretariadegoverno/pt-br/posse-presidencial">presidential term</a>. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/01/1146518711/leftist-lula-brazil-sworn-in-president">Lula previously led his country from 2003 to 2010</a>. The president, who was sworn in again on Jan. 1, 2023, promised on the campaign trail that Brazil’s future can be like its past again: more prosperous and less polarized. </p>
<p>Having <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KBw41t4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">studied Brazil</a> in <a href="https://www.nber.org/people/marc_muendler?page=1&perPage=50">our economic research</a>, and having lived in the country for several years by birth or by choice, we argue that it will not be easy for Lula to fulfill his economic promises.</p>
<p>Unlike in his first two terms, when domestic and foreign markets <a href="https://www.econ.puc-rio.br/biblioteca.php/trabalhos/show/1533">helped the economy along</a>, Lula now faces <a href="https://www.oecd.org/economy/brazil-economic-snapshot">strong headwinds at home</a> <a href="https://www.weforum.org/press/2023/01/chief-economists-say-global-recession-likely-in-2023-but-cost-of-living-crisis-close-to-peaking">and abroad</a> – and that means sound policies are even more important this time around.</p>
<p><iframe id="7pFZj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7pFZj/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Good times, bad times and economic choices</h2>
<p>Brazil shot up from the world’s 14th-largest economy in 2003 to the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=BR">seventh-biggest in 2010</a>, during a boom that largely coincided with Lula’s prior presidency. At the same time, the country’s <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators">poverty rate</a>, which the World Bank today pegs at the share of the population living on less than US$3.65 a day, fell sharply, from 26% to 12%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.exportgenius.in/blog/brazil-exports-higher-than-imports-a-brief-overview-of-brazil-trade-641.php">Brazil exports so many</a> gallons of orange juice, bags of coffee, bushels of wheat and other commodities that it’s serving up the world’s breakfast. Global growth during those years boosted the demand for these commodities as well as for Brazil’s processed goods. Manufacturing exports fueled Brazil’s growth in the decade following the year 2000 for the first time, led by sales <a href="https://legacy.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/exports-brazil.pdf">of products like steel</a>, car parts and cars, and <a href="https://embraer.com/">aircraft made by Embraer</a>.</p>
<p>During these boom years, Lula ran a balanced government budget, held inflation low and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Books/Issues/2019/03/11/Brazil-Boom-Bust-and-Road-to-Recovery-44927">kept the Brazilian real’s exchange rate </a> with other currencies under control – macroeconomic policies that he maintained from his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Lula also bundled <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2015.1059730">Cardoso’s popular anti-poverty programs</a> into Bolsa Família, a successful <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X0600157X">conditional cash transfer program</a>. To remain enrolled and receive the monetary benefits, low-income families had to get their children vaccinated against diseases, keep them in school and <a href="https://www.iadb.org/en/toolkit/conditional-cash-transfer-programs/brazil-bolsa-familia">meet other requirements</a>. </p>
<p>Cynthia Benedetto, Embraer’s chief financial officer, <a href="https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2011/09/13/chegou-a-hora-do-brasil-ou-ela-acabou-de-passar.ghtml">observed in 2011</a>: “Since my childhood I heard that Brazil is the country of the future,” and then warned, “Now the future has arrived, and I start to fear that it is short.”</p>
<p>She was right. The good times didn’t last. </p>
<p>During the second decade of this century, the prices of many of the commodities that Brazil exports <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNFUELINDEXQ">fell or even plummeted</a>. The country experienced two of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/07/519073220/brazils-recession-the-longest-and-deepest-in-its-history-new-figures-show">worst recessions in its history</a>. In the downturn that lasted from late 2014 to mid-2016, <a href="https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/4094">nearly 5 million Brazilians lost their jobs</a>. After a sluggish recovery, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and <a href="https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/46504/64/PO2020_Brazil_en.pdf">10 million Brazilians became jobless</a> in another big downturn.</p>
<h2>Political upheaval</h2>
<p>Bad choices made tough and unlucky times worse.</p>
<p>A combination of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.2020.1866906">economic mismanagement</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45290155#metadata_info_tab_contents">widespread corruption</a>, <a href="https://semancha.com/2013/06/22/the-gringos-guide-to-demonstrations-in-brazil/">political turmoil</a> and a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil">global pandemic</a> all contributed to 10 years of backward sliding after a decade of progress.</p>
<p>Lula’s <a href="https://www.poder360.com.br/justica/5-anos-de-lava-jato-285-condenacoes-600-reus-e-3-000-anos-de-penas/">allies</a>, including some in his <a href="https://www.camara.leg.br/tv/388972-supremo-condena-ex-ministro-jose-dirceu-a-10-anos-e-10-meses-de-reclusao/">inner circle</a>, were found to be part of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35810578">one corruption scheme after another</a>. Lula himself <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-corruption-lula/former-brazilian-president-lula-found-guilty-of-corruption-idUSE6N1JB014">ended up in prison for corruption</a> until <a href="https://portal.stf.jus.br/noticias/verNoticiaDetalhe.asp?idConteudo=464261&ori=1">Brazil’s Supreme Court declared the case a mistrial</a> because the presiding judge was determined to have been biased.</p>
<p>Brazilians elected Lula’s hand-picked successor, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29782073">Dilma Rousseff</a>, in the 2010 and 2014 presidential races. She cast aside some of her predecessors’ policies that had buttressed economic stability.</p>
<p>Rousseff <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/economia/2016/01/20/internas_economia,514557/tombini-se-curva-a-pressao-do-pt-e-banco-central-deve-manter-juros.shtml">ended the central bank’s de facto independence</a> and lowered interest rates in an <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ldGPSw-D2wugZNlKc8_lBg918YGC0-3G/edit">abrupt turnaround that sparked inflation</a>. She gave up on <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/economia/2013/11/07/internas_economia,397597/mantega-admite-que-a-meta-fiscal-deste-ano-nao-sera-atingida.shtml">balancing the budget</a>.</p>
<p>Once corruption was exposed in state-owned oil company <a href="https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/lula-admite-corrupcao-na-petrobras-erros-de-dilma-e-compara-mensalao-a-orcament/">Petrobras</a>, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39194395">construction industry</a> and at Brazil’s massive <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/politica-brasil/diretor-do-bndes-brasil-legalizou-corrupcao-com-mudanca-na-lei">state-run development bank</a>, economic activity slowed across the board. Rousseff oversaw one of Brazil’s most severe economic contractions in memory: <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators">GDP shrank by 7%</a> and <a href="https://blogdoibre.fgv.br/posts/divida-bruta-ou-divida-liquida-eis-questao">public debt increased 20 percentage points as a share of GDP</a> from 2014 to 2016.</p>
<p>Brazil’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/latin-america-caribbean-brazil-impeachments-international-news-d5614b598b25470e839d9d8acfc9cff8">Congress impeached and convicted Rousseff</a> in 2016 for fiscal improprieties. Her vice president, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-politics-temer-idUKKCN0Y32WC">Michel Temer</a>, served out the rest of her term and appointed Lula’s central bank chair, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-ministers/brazils-temer-names-henrique-meirelles-as-finance-minister-idUSKCN0Y322W">Henrique Meirelles, as minister of finance</a> to help rein in public debt.</p>
<p>Jair Bolsonaro, a vocal admirer of Brazil’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/07/30/631952886/dictatorship-was-a-very-good-period-says-brazil-s-aspiring-president">20th-century military dictatorship</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/01/jair-bolsonaro-inauguration-brazil-president">became president in 2019</a> by riding the wave of widespread sentiment against Lula’s and Rousseff’s Workers’ Party. Bolsonaro prioritized <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/carlos-goes/coluna/2021/09/do-entusiasmo-com-equipe-economica-decepcao-25212666.ghtml">short-term political gain</a> over long-term adjustment, often <a href="https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-50105202">clashing with his own economic aides</a> and dodging rules meant to curb government spending. </p>
<p>By 2020, Brazil’s economy <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators">ranked No. 12 in the world in terms of GDP</a>, and living conditions deteriorated. In 2021, the poverty rate likely hit the highest level in a decade, according to estimates by <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106004340/https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/11563/4/NT_102_Disoc_Um_Pais.pdf">researchers at IPEA, a government think tank</a>, as well as <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/35695-poverty-hits-a-record-in-2021-62-5-million-persons-highest-level-since-2012">IBGE</a>, Brazil’s statistics agency.</p>
<p>The pandemic and the social spending fluctuations it brought about have made it hard to accurately track economic trends in recent years. But the numbers suggest that Brazil is close again to where it started the 21st century. </p>
<p><iframe id="UuAhl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UuAhl/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Back to the future</h2>
<p>Lula’s economic challenges are daunting, over and above the political crisis after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">riots by opposition supporters in Brasília</a>.</p>
<p>First, the economic outlook is gloomy. Inflation has led central banks worldwide to <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-interest-rates-rising-faster-than-expected-pivot-unlikely-in-2023-10-11-2022">increase interest rates</a>, and the International Monetary Fund <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/11/policymakers-need-steady-hand-as-storm-clouds-gather-over-global-economy">forecasts a global slowdown in 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Even if the world still wants Brazil’s coffee, <a href="https://citrusindustry.net/2023/01/13/brazils-orange-juice-production-and-exports/">orange juice</a> and cereal from wheat or corn for breakfast, we doubt that foreign demand for Brazil’s exports will bounce back to the levels seen in past boom years. </p>
<p><a href="https://data.imf.org/commodityprices">Global prices for many of the commodities Brazil exports</a> have been sliding downward for the past 15 years. They briefly reached their 2008 peak level again in mid-2022, partly driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing global turmoil that <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/food-export-restrictions-have-eased-russia-ukraine-war-continues-concerns-remain-key">drove food prices up</a>.</p>
<p>But the prices of commodities that are <a href="https://www.usitc.gov/data/gravity/itpde.htm">particularly important to Brazil</a>, such as <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans">soybeans</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn">corn</a> and <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee">coffee</a>, are all down significantly from their recent peaks.</p>
<p>During his 2022 campaign, Lula promised to <a href="https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/reuters/2022/08/17/lula-reajuste-tabela-imposto-de-renda.htm">slash taxes on the upper-middle class</a> and <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2022/10/eleito-prioridade-de-lula-e-renovar-auxilio-brasil-de-r-600-e-dar-aumento-real-para-o-minimo.ghtml">increase benefits for the poor</a> while <a href="https://gauchazh.clicrbs.com.br/economia/noticia/2022/11/alckmin-diz-que-governo-lula-vai-fechar-contas-no-azul-e-reduzir-divida-mas-nao-em-24-horas-clalruut3000801g7stvj1i22.html">keeping government finances under control</a>.</p>
<p>This arithmetic is feasible in an era of rapid growth, when newly generated wealth can finance public transfers. At times of slow or no growth, like today, it becomes much harder to pull off.</p>
<p><iframe id="7jPK6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7jPK6/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Second, unlike when Lula first took office <a href="https://oxfordre.com/latinamericanhistory/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-416;jsessionid=A0929A5DBDAF95045F6D2AA8214B2378?mediaType=Article">following a period of fiscal stability</a>, this time he must credibly rebuild much of the fiscal framework.</p>
<p>After boosts to benefits, tax cuts and some <a href="https://www.insper.edu.br/agenda-de-eventos/lancamento-do-livro-para-nao-esquecer-politicas-publicas-que-empobrecem-o-brasil/">unfunded pension commitments to retirees</a>, it’s become hard to balance Brazil’s budget. In response to the crisis in the mid-2010s, Brazil’s <a href="https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2016/12/15/promulgada-emenda-constitucional-do-teto-de-gastos">Congress passed a spending cap</a> that gradually rises so as to foster slow fiscal adjustment while avoiding harsh austerity. But Bolsonaro essentially got rid of the cap by circumventing it.</p>
<p>One example is the federal government’s obligation to cover court-mandated payments: <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/839381-camara-aprova-em-2o-turno-mudancas-na-pec-dos-precatorios/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1674072828470042&usg=AOvVaw3wBnAFA1gSAvGVnSFLHL8g">Bolsonaro delayed</a> the disbursement of 110 billion reais ($21.6 billion), equal to more than 1% of Brazil’s GDP, in 2022. That means the new government has to pay this year’s and some of last year’s bills at the same time.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/brazils-bolsonaro-says-no-national-lockdown-record-covid-deaths-rcna618">Bolsonaro dismissed the severity of COVID-19</a> when it was spreading uncontrolled through his country, his government did help people cope with its economic fallout by allowing <a href="https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/portaria/dlg6-2020.htm">emergency spending that breached Brazil’s spending cap</a>. However, his administration <a href="https://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2022/06/30/senado-aprova-pec-que-preve-estado-de-emergencia-para-ampliar-beneficios-sociais.ghtml">maneuvered to perpetuate the state of emergency</a> and kept spending levels higher than the cap would allow long after Brazilians stopped staying at home for public health reasons.</p>
<p>Third, we expect political divisions, including some <a href="https://www.gov.br/planalto/pt-br/acompanhe-o-planalto/noticias/2023/01/geraldo-alckmin-toma-posse-como-vice-presidente-da-republica">within Lula’s administration</a>, to be another obstacle. Different factions on his economic team are likely to be at loggerheads for the foreseeable future because they prefer starkly different policies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/simone-tebet-quem-e-a-nova-ministra-do-planejamento-e-ex-adversaria-de-lula-na-eleicao/">Simone Tebet</a>, the new economic planning minister who is in charge of coordinating spending, has several fiscal conservatives on her team.</p>
<p>Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, in contrast, has appointed undersecretaries known to invariably <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/bernardo-guimaraes/2022/12/o-que-esperar-da-politica-economica-do-novo-governo.shtml">advocate for more spending</a>. Plans for taxes and spending released to date set a budget surplus of 0.5% of GDP as the new government’s target, primarily financed with more tax collection. </p>
<p>Using budget projections by the <a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/fiscal-monitor/2022/October/Data/fm-october-2022-database.ashx">International Monetary Fund</a>, we consider those revenue projections <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2023/01/pacote-de-haddad-vai-na-direcao-correta-mas-ha-duvidas-sobre-execucao-dizem-economistas.shtml">overly optimistic</a>.</p>
<p>To be sure, any new government deserves time to prove itself, especially under tough circumstances. But <a href="https://www.briq-institute.org/global-preferences/rankings#1-0-1">patience is rarer in Brazil</a> than humor – and always has been.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197673/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc-Andreas Muendler received funding from the National Science Foundation for research using Brazilian data.
Marc-Andreas Muendler worked as a consulting researcher for the Brazilian labor ministry and the Brazilian census bureau, and currently works closely with the research department of Brazil's central bank in Sao Paulo on research into firm dynamics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Góes was a senior economic adviser at the Executive Office of the President of Brazil (2017-18). He is currently an economics columnist for O Globo, a Brazilian newspaper. He is the founder of Instituto Mercado Popular, a nonpartisan São Paulo-based think tank. </span></em></p>He faces strong headwinds at home and abroad as his third term as president gets underway.Marc-Andreas Muendler, Professor of Economics, University of California, San DiegoCarlos Góes, Doctoral Candidate in Economics, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1575372021-03-29T14:44:08Z2021-03-29T14:44:08ZLandmark study shows how child grants empower women in Brazil and South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391480/original/file-20210324-13-9o4x3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C458%2C2955%2C1535&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Grants were found to help improve the health, including mental health, of women</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Aaron Ufumeli</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the mid-1990s, new approaches to poverty reduction have been introduced in countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Some have involved income transfer programmes that target poorer citizens based on various means tests. Most have targeted female caregivers, primarily mothers.</p>
<p>The most expansive child and family grants are in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina and South Africa, which has put in place the biggest social provision net in <a href="https://www.unicef.org/french/files/Social_Protection_for_Children_and_their_Families_-_A_Global_Overview.pdf">Africa</a>. </p>
<p>The focus of our study was on Brazil and South Africa, two of the countries that have the largest programmes globally. The programmes were all designed to enhance child welfare. But as academics who have studied social policy in these countries, we felt it was important to assess the impact of income transfer programmes that move beyond a focus on child well-being only. In particular, we set out to examine if such transfers also elevated women in their homes, societies and political systems.</p>
<p>We set <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1468018120981421">out to compare</a> South Africa’s <a href="https://www.sassa.gov.za/Pages/Child-Support-Grant.aspx">child support grant</a> and Brazil’s <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---sro-new_delhi/documents/presentation/wcms_175274.pdf">Bolsa Família</a>. </p>
<p>Bolsa Família was launched in 2003 and is the largest cash transfer programme for children and families in the world, reaching more than <a href="https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/bolsa-familia-in-brazil">46 million people a year</a> in Brazil. The country has a population of <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/brazil-population/">212 million people</a>. </p>
<p>South Africa’s child support grant system was launched in 1998. It makes monthly disbursements to 12.8 million children of a total population of <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-africa-population/">59.6 million people</a>. </p>
<p>Though they have different population sizes, Brazil and South Africa have a great deal in common. They have similar economic profiles and demographic characteristics. For example, among other similarities, they have the highest <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/">levels of income inequality</a>. </p>
<p>We conducted fieldwork in Doornkop, <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/place/soweto">Soweto</a>, a large, densely populated black urban settlement which comprises one third of Johannesburg’s population. We also looked at three municipalities across two states of Northeast Brazil. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1468018120981421">found</a> that regular income assistance boosted the self-esteem and agency of women recipients in both countries. Our findings also underscored the added benefits of Brazil’s cash transfer programme because it is embedded in a stronger public health and social service network than is the case in South Africa. </p>
<p>The broader lesson we took from our findings was that income transfer programmes must operate in deliberate coordination with ancillary social service institutions to deliver the maximum benefits for women’s empowerment.</p>
<h2>Three dimensions of empowerment</h2>
<p>Our analysis centred on the impact of child and family cash transfers on three dimensions of empowerment. </p>
<p>First, whether adult women beneficiaries experienced heightened independence in financial decision making; second, whether they experienced enhanced control over their bodies; and, finally, whether they experienced psycho-social growth. </p>
<p>This was a departure from the way in which empowerment is usually conceptualised in academic research where the focus tends to be on how and whether gendered norms are changing. Instead, inspired by economist and philosopher <a href="http://heterodoxnews.com/ajes/readings/Sen1999-intro.pdf">Amartya Sen</a>, we viewed empowerment as the expansion of assets and capabilities that give women more control over their lives, enhancing agency to eliminate inequities and to unleash greater freedoms.</p>
<p>We listened closely to the voices of women recipients, in focus groups, individual conversations and surveys. </p>
<p>In the case of Bolsa Família, we also set out to understand the broader context in which the child support grant system connected with other social services. Brazil attaches conditions to its child support grants. These include children having to attend school regularly, children under five receiving standard immunisations and prenatal care for pregnant women. </p>
<p>To cover all these bases we interviewed teachers and principals, social workers and primary health care officials. </p>
<p>In South Africa, grant receipt is largely unconditional, except that a child should attend school. We assessed the impact of the child support grant on a range of social and economic indicators such as school attendance, access to health and other services, food security, income and livelihoods and women’s empowerment. </p>
<h2>Enhancing women’s status</h2>
<p>Our findings suggest the social grants triggered positive dynamics for women’s empowerment in both countries, even though the programmes were not intended for this purpose. </p>
<p>For example, the cash transfers contributed to advancing the standing of women beneficiaries. We found that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>women were more able to meet basic needs, which reduced stress because they were better able to cope with the precariousness of living in poverty;</p></li>
<li><p>most women recipients experienced heightened financial control and decision making vis-à-vis their partners. They withdrew the money themselves and exercised control over spending decisions; </p></li>
<li><p>the grants helped boost self esteem and agency. Beneficiaries in both countries reported an increased sense of status in their communities.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In both countries the grants helped reduce poverty levels, particularly among the lower quintile of earners. Both systems helped reduce the depth of poverty among female versus male-headed households.</p>
<p>But it was also clear that Bolsa Família went further than the child support grant in some key areas. For example, it induced beneficiaries to get basic identity documents, which <a href="https://www.unicef.org/southafrica/media/1226/file/ZAF-removing-barriers-to-accessing-child-grants-2016.pdf">improved access to a wider system of health and social work services</a>. Having documents also meant that women could better navigate bureaucracies and gave them a sense of social recognition and hope. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The findings suggest that social grants can unleash positive dynamics for women’s empowerment even though the programmes were not intended for this purpose. Cash transfers don’t in and of themselves transform gender roles. Nevertheless, they help improve the standing of women beneficiaries in important ways. These include increasing social recognition, reducing levels of poverty and increasing financial control, decision making and agency. </p>
<p>But there are areas in which both Brazil and South Africa could improve. Cash transfers need to be combined with active labour market policies that boost job creation, livelihoods support and social services to enhance the economic inclusion of women. </p>
<p>There need to be skills and training programmes, as well as the provision of childcare and transportation.</p>
<p>Finally, our findings point to the need for South Africa to emulate Brazil by getting other government ministries and agencies on board to coordinate the delivery of other social services alongside the grants to boost results.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leila Patel receives funding from the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation for her Chair in Welfare and Social Development.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Borges Sugiyama and Wendy Hunter do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Findings show that income transfer programmes must operate in deliberate coordination with ancillary social service institutions to deliver the maximum benefits for women’s empowerment.Leila Patel, Professor of Social Development Studies, University of JohannesburgNatasha Borges Sugiyama, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-MilwaukeeWendy Hunter, Professor of Government, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/784142017-06-06T14:53:37Z2017-06-06T14:53:37ZHow South Africa can fix the fact that one in four of its children go hungry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172430/original/file-20170606-3677-iy7w6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/PR84/PR84.pdf">most recent data</a> shows that 27.4% of South African children under the age of five are too short for their age or suffer from stunting. </p>
<p>Children are stunted when they don’t grow at an adequate rate. The <a href="http://www.who.int/childgrowth/en/">World Health Organisation</a> has height standards for various age cohorts and defines stunting as a “height for age” value which is less than two notches below the norm.</p>
<p>Stunting is a measure of chronic hunger and is a long-term indicator of under-nutrition. The survey shows that one in four children go hungry. It reflects the cumulative effects of poor socioeconomic, environmental, health and nutritional conditions.</p>
<p>Nutritional status is important for children both as they develop in their mother’s womb and during the first two years of their life. This is known as the “unique window of opportunity” for their later development. If deprived in this time the damage from this lack of growth is irreversible. </p>
<p>South Africa’s 2016 <a href="http://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/PR84/PR84.pdf">Demographic and Health Survey</a> shows that stunting remains a national concern. At 27.4%, the stunting rate has remained the same since the last survey done in 2003. These are the highest recorded levels in the country.</p>
<p>In the intervening 13 years it was assumed that stunting was on the decline. This was based on other nutrition surveys which showed a drop in the rate. But the demographic survey suggests this is not the case. It shows that child hunger is not improving and may in fact be on the rise again.</p>
<p>We believe that there are two main reasons for the rise in stunting: poverty and malnutrition, which includes the fact that few mothers breastfeed their babies for six months as <a href="http://www.who.int/nutrition/topics/exclusive_breastfeeding/en/">recommended</a> by the World Health Organisation as well the fact that the food they eat offers little nutrition. </p>
<p>Unless these two issues are tackled, South Africa’s stunting rates will continue to rise.</p>
<h2>The problem of poverty</h2>
<p>The demographic health survey confirms the connection between poverty and hunger. Children are stunted because their families do not have enough money to buy them enough healthy food. According to the study, 36% of children in the poorest 20% of households are stunted, compared to 13% of children in the richest 20% of households. </p>
<p>It’s no coincidence that country’s <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=9561">unemployment rate is 27%</a>. Unemployed adults cannot feed their hungry children.</p>
<p>To address the issue of poverty and hunger, the South African government introduced a social grant system – which included a child support grant – in 1996. </p>
<p>The grants have had a <a href="https://www.unicef.org/evaldatabase/index_69960.html">positive impact</a> on the lives of poor people. Most poor people spend their additional income on basic needs, starting with food. </p>
<p>The child support grant reaches 12 million children. But the monthly payout of R380 per child is not sufficient to meet nutritional needs. </p>
<p>Research by the <a href="http://foodsecurity.ac.za/working-papers">Centre of Excellence in Food Security</a> has found that grants are put to number of different “uses”, including food, groceries, clothing, education and transport. There are also many “users” including unemployed family members, who do not receive any social assistance from the state. </p>
<p>For the child support grant to have a greater impact on the health of young children, policies that target resources to other members of the household will need to be considered. These include universal grants such as the long proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/basic-income-for-all-could-lift-millions-out-of-poverty-and-change-how-we-think-about-inequality-53030">Basic Income Grant</a>, or family grants such as Brazil’s <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2013/11/04/bolsa-familia-Brazil-quiet-revolution">Bolsa Familia</a>. </p>
<h2>Malnutrition</h2>
<p>There are other drivers of malnutrition. One is poor childcare practices, such as not breastfeeding infants exclusively for the first six months. </p>
<p>Until recently South Africa had one of the world’s lowest rates of exclusive breastfeeding. The demographic health survey reported that this figure has risen from fourfold, from 8% in 2003 to 32% in 2016. This is extremely encouraging. </p>
<p>But the fact that the nutrition status of children hasn’t improved suggests that other factors are driving South Africa’s malnutrition rates.</p>
<p>Other options may be poor sanitation in dense settlements which result in frequent diarrhoea, or simply not getting sufficient nourishing food both during pregnancy and after being born. </p>
<p>The country can help improve the nutritional quality of food. It produces sufficient food and has adequate scientific knowledge to produce, process and distribute safe and healthy food. </p>
<p>Options already introduced in South Africa include <a href="http://www.foodfacts.org.za/Articles/FoodFortification.asp">food fortification</a> by adding vitamins and minerals, and dietary supplements. Food fortification improves the nutritional quality of the food supply and provides a public health benefit with minimal risk to health.</p>
<p>About 90% of wheat flour and 70% of maize meal on the market is fortified with vitamin A, thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, pyridoxine, folic acid, iron and zinc. </p>
<p>In addition, children can also get a Vitamin A <a href="http://www.adsa.org.za/Portals/14/Documents/DOH/Vit%20A%20policy%20guidelines%20OF%20S%20A%20-%20recent_1.pdf">supplement syrup</a> at the clinic every six months until they are five-years-old.</p>
<p>But the effect of these interventions isn’t being fully realised because many of these programmes have been <a href="http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/661/ZP_Resources/fsp-research-paper-sa-case-study-22-august-2016.zp96264.pdf">poorly designed and implemented</a>.</p>
<h2>Getting the basics right</h2>
<p>Ultimately children living in poor households need to be supported by adults with jobs. They need caregivers who are not trying to stretch a comparatively small grant over the multiple needs of their families. And they need environments in which food can be safely prepared and consumed.</p>
<p>Bringing food to the mouths of children in South Africa requires action by all parts of society: its elected representatives, employers and food activists.</p>
<p>A convergence of science and policy is what is really needed, along with better cohesion, and better coordination at all levels of government.</p>
<p>The fact that one in every four children in South Africa go hungry should indeed be of national concern. The reality is that if nothing is done about it, it will only get worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian May receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation and the World Bank</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Devereux receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa and the Newton Fund through the British Council.</span></em></p>Tackling the challenge of stunting in South Africa needs a convergence of science and policy along with better coordination at all levels of government.Julian May, Director DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security, University of the Western CapeStephen Devereux, Research Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/659392016-10-04T10:11:10Z2016-10-04T10:11:10ZAs Brazil tilts rightward, Lula’s leftist legacy of lifting the poor is at risk<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/brazil-2153">Brazilian</a> senate’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeached-removed-president.html">impeachment</a> of President Dilma Rousseff in August ended about 13 years of center-left government by the Workers Party (PT). Then in September, a federal judge dealt the party and its legacy an equally devastating blow <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-idUSKCN11Q2QH">when he indicted</a> her predecessor and party icon, Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva, on corruption charges.</p>
<p>Rousseff’s removal and Lula’s pending trial for participation in the corruption scheme that cost state oil company Petrobras billions of dollars <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-two-views-of-democracy-and-the-battle-for-brazils-future-63668">have cast a shadow</a> on the future of the programs he launched and she sustained. </p>
<p>By far Lula’s most important achievement was incorporating the poor – politically and economically – into the nation. While in office, Lula pursued a pragmatic agenda balancing social reform with economic growth, which produced not only significant gains for the lower class but for the whole country. </p>
<p>On his eight-year watch, the <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17147828">economy boomed</a>, poverty plunged and incomes and living standards soared. Lula left office in January 2011 with an <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-12-19/brazil-s-lula-leaves-office-with-83-approval-rating-folha-says">83 percent favorability rating</a>. International recognition of his accomplishments resulted in Brazil being awarded the 2014 World Cup tournament and 2016 Olympic Games.</p>
<p>From 1999 through 2014, I produced an <a href="http://www.latam.ufl.edu/research--training/la-business-environment/publications/">annual assessment</a> of the environment for business and investment in Latin America’s 18 largest economies, of which Brazil is the biggest. During this study, I made frequent trips to Brazil and witnessed the remarkable rise of Lula and his Workers’ Party (PT). In 2009, <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/14845197">The Economist captured the spirit</a> I and many others felt at the time when it portrayed Rio’s famous Christ statue taking off like a rocket. Under Lula, it seemed, Brazil had finally turned the corner on the boom and bust cycles of the past. </p>
<p>Now, with Lula indicted, his successor impeached and the new president promising to take the country to the right, is his legacy as the president of poor Brazilians at risk? </p>
<h2>‘Leader of the poor’ learns market economics</h2>
<p>Lula got his start in politics during the military dictatorship, which ruled from 1964 until 1985, as a labor leader and founding member of the socialist PT. Prior to 2002, he had failed three times in bids to become president. </p>
<p>Heading into the 2002 election, Lula had the <a href="http://countrystudies.us/brazil/30.htm">overwhelming support</a> of the rural poor, urban working class and shanty town (favela) dwellers, or roughly 40 percent of the population (voting is is mandatory in Brazil). As the son of a poor family who migrated to Sao Paulo from the impoverished northeast, he was one of them. </p>
<p>But their support alone was not enough to win the election or govern the country. </p>
<p>So he sought to broaden his electoral appeal by moving his economic policies to the center. In his October 2002 “<a href="http://www.sep.org.br/artigos/download?id=1193&title=Assessing">Letter to the Brazilian People</a>,” Lula pledged to adhere to the market friendly policies that had been an anathema to the PT faithful.</p>
<p>Lula <a href="http://everything2.com/title/2002+Brazilian+Presidential+Election">narrowly missed a first round victory</a> but won in a landslide in the runoff and took office in January 2003. He had convinced the business community and investors that they could work with the new PT, while also maintaining the support of his base. </p>
<h2>Lula’s legacy</h2>
<p>Lula’s strategy won the presidency, but his supporters on the left grew concerned that promoting growth would take priority over deepening social justice. As it worked out, the two goals worked hand in hand for Lula.</p>
<p>While his appointment of a former banking executive to head the central bank <a href="http://www.cfr.org/brazil/lulas-surprise/p6062">reinforced their concerns</a>, Lula and his advisers argued that sustaining growth and lowering inflation were necessary to raise the living standards of all Brazilians, especially the poor. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cepal.org/en/node/37887">strategy paid off</a>, positioning Brazil to fully profit from the global commodity boom. Exports and foreign investment soared. From 2004 to 2011, growth averaged over 4 percent a year and inflation moderated. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-11458409">Growth generated good jobs</a>. Unemployment fell to historically low levels. Millions of workers moved into the formal sector with higher wages and full benefits. The expanding economy also meant more credit for low-income consumers.</p>
<p>The administration took additional steps to ensure poor Brazilians were fully incorporated into the growing economy. It strengthened the <a href="idl-bnc.idrc.ca/dspace/bitstream/10625/55285/1/IDL-55285.pdf">national minimum wage</a> and social security and unemployment insurance programs. These changes <a href="http://thebrazilbusiness.com/article/minimum-wage-in-brazil">protected</a> the living standards of nearly 50 million low-income Brazilians. </p>
<p>Lula used the economic boom to fund his signature social program, the Bolsa Familia. A conditional cash transfer program, it gives a monthly stipend to poor mothers who keep their children in school and make sure they get regular health checkups. The goal was to invest in future generations while raising the incomes of poor families. </p>
<p>On the 10th anniversary of the program in 2012, the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/03/22/mundo-sin-pobreza-leccion-brasil-mundo-bolsa-familia">World Bank heralded</a> the Bolsa Familia as a “new lesson for the world” on poverty reduction. From 2003 to 2012, the poverty rate dropped from nearly 40 percent of the population to under 20 percent. Brazil was finally <a href="http://thebrazilbusiness.com/article/social-classes-in-brazil-1453802521">becoming a middle-class society</a>. </p>
<h2>A legacy sustained, then squandered</h2>
<p>Lula easily won a second term in 2006, continuing the same policies. When he left office in 2010, because of term limits, his popularity swept his fellow PT politician and handpicked successor into office. Rousseff became Brazil’s first female head of state. </p>
<p>During her first term, Rousseff followed the Lula model. But economic growth began to lag, dragged down by falling commodity prices, making it more difficult to fund Lulas’s social programs. And the Petrobras corruption scandal emerged as a major challenge for the government.</p>
<p>The heart of the scandal is a bribery scheme in which businesses paid off elected officials and Petrobras executives in return for inflated sweetheart contracts. The scandal has reached the highest levels of government and the corporate world. Although President Rousseff <a href="http://theconversation.com/why-brazils-post-olympics-hangover-will-hit-so-hard-61488">has never been accused of direct involvement</a>, it occurred on her watch. </p>
<p>Rousseff managed to narrowly win a second term in 2014, but a deep recession and the escalating scandal turned the public against her. And Vice President Michel Temer and the parties allied with the PT in Congress followed suit. Her position became untenable, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer">Rousseff was impeached</a>, not for corruption but unauthorized movement of funds to cover holes in the budget.</p>
<h2>Will the legacy survive?</h2>
<p>With her conviction, Temer of the center-right Brazilian Democratic Movement Party assumed presidency, a position he holds through 2018. </p>
<p>Rousseff charges that her impeachment was a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer">parliamentary coup</a>” carried out by conservatives to roll back progressive measures enacted by Lula and her. But Temer <a href="http://www.brazilgovnews.gov.br/news/2016/07/in-letter-to-congress-temer-re-affirms-his-commitment-to-social-programs">vowed to maintain</a> – even strengthen – the Bolsa Famiia and Lula’s other popular social programs. </p>
<p>Whether Temer’s commitment to can survive competing demands for diminished fiscal resources is questionable. More troubling, Temer’s <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/shannonsims/2016/05/12/brazils-new-president-michel-temer-fills-cabinet-with-only-men">all-white, all-male cabinet</a> announced a retreat from the inclusive politics of the Lula-Rousseff years (<a href="http://www.newsody.com/news/brazils-temer-adds-woman-to-all-male-cabinet/560396">he recently added a woman</a>).</p>
<p>For now, it seems voters are suspicious of both Temer and the PT leaders he succeeded. In the first round of national municipal elections held on Oct. 2, the PT <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6a1c81ac-8975-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1">suffered its worst defeat</a> since Lula became president. It lost more than half of the municipalities it had controlled, among them four of five of the largest cities that had PT mayors.</p>
<p>President Temer’s party, however, was not the major beneficiary of the PT’s defeat. It was the center-right Social Democratic Party, Brazil’s third-largest party. </p>
<p>But in general, the high rates of abstention and null and blank ballots indicate the extent to which Brazilians <a href="http://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/declinio-do-pt-partido-perde-poder-em-374-cidades-20222813">are disgusted</a> with all parties and politicians. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the PT is still the party of the poor, and Lula its leader. With Lula going on trial and the party widely discredited among those who gave it a mandate to govern in 2002, it is not clear who will represent Brazil’s poor going forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65939/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry L. McCoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Luis Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva’s center-left policies helped lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty, earning him the title ‘leader of the poor.’ It’s a legacy worth preserving.Terry L. McCoy, Professor Emeritus of Latin American Studies and Political Science, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561892016-03-15T09:34:39Z2016-03-15T09:34:39ZHow Brazil missed its golden South-South co-operation moment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114959/original/image-20160314-11292-13q98zs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Brazilian president Lula da Silva's development aid programme has fizzled out.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Ueslei Marcelino</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Compared to China or India, Brazil is a relatively small player in development aid. Yet it has managed to <a href="http://www.thisisafricaonline.com/Policy/Interview-Luiz-Inacio-Lula-da-Silva?ct=true">make a mark</a> in Africa and globally, especially under the leadership of charismatic <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_In%C3%A1cio_Lula_da_Silva">Lula da Silva</a>.</p>
<p>From 2003 to 2010 Lula led an unprecedented <a href="http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-73292010000300013">shift in the country’s foreign policy</a> towards the global South. He also helped elevate Brazil to the status of a global player.</p>
<p>Back in 2010 the outlook was promising yet cautious. Brazil’s aid programme was dubbed a <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/16592455">“global model in waiting”</a>. Its potential was acknowledged but there were some tangible (institutional and operational) issues to address to <a href="http://www.odi.org/comment/4952-brazils-development-cooperation-south-global-model-waiting">fulfil its ambitions</a>. But, six years on, the expectant waiting has turned into tired disillusionment. </p>
<h2>An unrealised dream</h2>
<p>Brazil, it seems, is vanishing from the international development cooperation scene. This is happening before it has proved its South-South promise to be more than rhetorical hype. Many may never have been convinced by the South-South euphoria. Others may regard Brazil’s premature retreat as a missed opportunity. This article sways towards the missed opportunity view.</p>
<p>A comeback is needed. Yet, the omens do not look favourable. For the last couple of years, Brazil has been wrestling with major economic and political turmoil at home. This has severely hampered its engagement abroad. </p>
<p>The country is preparing to host the <a href="http://www.olympic.org/rio-2016-summer-olympics">Olympic Games</a> in a few months <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-construction-petrobras-idUSKCN0Q51LL20150731">amid concerns</a> about overpriced infrastructures and unfitting venues. The <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/">Zika epidemic</a> and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-petrobras-strike-idUSL1N12Z3V520151105">strikes</a> add further strain.</p>
<p>And then the news of <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/brazil/">Lula’s</a> alleged connections to a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/world/americas/brazil-raid-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva.html?_r=0">mega corruption scandal</a>. This is a major blow to the image of success that Lula had so skillfully cultivated internationally. This is now on the verge of being irremediably tainted.</p>
<p>The “golden age” of Brazil’s South-South cooperation that marked Lula’s years in power is over, as suggested by researcher Laura Waisbich at a recent <a href="http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/ConferenceProgramme-finaldraft.pdf">conference</a> on the rising powers and global development at the <a href="http://www.ids.ac.uk/">Institute of Development Studies</a> in the UK.</p>
<h2>The myth behind Brazil’s affinity with Africa</h2>
<p>On <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2015/02/04-brazil-global-ambitions-trinkunas">President Dilma Rousseff’s</a> watch Brazilian cooperation has, for the last couple of years, gradually receded to the backstage.</p>
<p>It is time to take stock of what happened. Several of the rhetorical claims of Brazilian cooperation need to be challenged. Brazilian actors need to be forced into a more self-critical and less self-centred attitude. </p>
<p>The myth of Brazil-Africa affinities based on common history, culture and racial kinship needs deconstructing. <a href="https://grakov-berlin.academia.edu/SusanneRess">Ethnographic research</a> by Susanne Ress, a postdoctoral researcher at Humboldt University of Berlin’s Center for Comparative and International Education, gives an account of the difficulties of striking the envisioned interaction and integration, not least because of the gap that separates Brazilians’ imaginaries of Africa and contemporary Africa. Afro-Brazilians and Africans are separated by different struggles and interests. </p>
<p>Also, the forthcoming work by Katia Taela, a doctoral researcher at Institute of Development Studies, exposes the myth of ‘sisterhood’ and ‘brotherhood’ by Brazilian aid workers towards their Mozambican counterparts. She also challenges claims of mutual learning.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://contestedagronomy.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/lidia-cabral-session-2.pdf">own research</a> shows that Brazilian researchers working on development projects in Mozambique are able to engage fruitfully with local counterparts more because of an individual’s personal attributes and attitudes than on presumed affinities and South-South credentials.</p>
<h2>Recipes that don’t translate</h2>
<p>There is also the questionable claim that Brazil’s recipes can fit in African contexts.</p>
<p>This is particularly noticeable in agriculture. Landscape-based similarity claims have been a particularly strong feature of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X15301765">Brazil in Mozambique</a>. This has led to parallels being drawn between Brazilian and African countries’ tropical geography which has justified the deployment of <a href="http://www.cnpm.embrapa.br/projetos/mocambique/download/ebook_paralelos/Livro_Paralelos.html">Brazil’s “tropical technology”</a>.</p>
<p>Other parallels have been drawn. For example, the presumed relevance of Brazilian concepts such as family farming and social struggles against agribusiness and modernisation. </p>
<p>Yet when they arrive in Africa, Brazilian imaginaries, technology, policy templates and political struggles land in a different context. They get reinterpreted and often <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X15303247">reconfigured</a>.</p>
<p>The impact of Brazilian cooperation on the lives of those it was supposed to benefit has yet to be assessed. In the meantime, its impact on local politics and state-society interactions has already been <a href="http://www.future-agricultures.org/research/cbaa/8052-world-development-special-issue-china-and-brazil-in-african-agriculture">significant</a>. </p>
<p>Natacha Bruna, a researcher from <a href="https://www.facebook.com/OMRMZ.ORG/">Observatório do Meio Rural</a>, a Mozambican NGO, shared a critical view of Brazilian cooperation’s footprint in her country. It shows how <a href="http://www.prosavana.gov.mz/index.php">ProSAVANA</a> – a trilateral initiative between the governments of Brazil, Japan and Mozambique – is regarded as a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/OMRMZ.ORG/photos/a.1481782735473895.1073741833.1417376985247804/1480564182262417/?type=3&theater">threat to local communities</a>.</p>
<h2>But there is still potential</h2>
<p>Yet, there are many exciting elements in the Brazilian development trajectory that deserve being more effectively incorporated into international development cooperation. These include policy interventions that tackle different development challenges in an integrated fashion. Examples include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>The <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/international/21638333-developing-countries-have-started-weave-social-safety-nets-heres-how-they-should-do-it">Bolsa Família</a>, a conditional cash-transfers programme that tackles income poverty as well as education and health issues.</p></li>
<li><p>The practice of the “<a href="http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0034-89102006000400003&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en">industrial-health complex</a>” whereby local health care industries are supported to develop national health systems. </p></li>
<li><p>The <a href="http://portal.mda.gov.br/portal/saf/maisalimentos/">More Food programme</a> that aims to boost the farming machinery industry, while raising family farmers’ productivity, increasing food production, and keeping youth in rural areas. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The problem is that these complex policy experiences have been tremendously simplified into transferable recipes where only <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X15301492">certain components get through</a>.</p>
<p>Take agriculture. Agribusiness clusters, family farming mechanisation, peasant farming resistance, agroecological systems are all part of the mix. Yet they don’t arrive with the same weight in Africa. A predisposition towards modernisation and Green Revolution-type of interventions is also a factor. The Africa version of the More Food programme, for example, has largely promoted <a href="http://www.agrale.com.br/en/press/news/detalhes/349">four-wheel tractors</a>, overshadowing alternatives such as small-scale mechanisation solutions. This is an area where Brazil has plenty of <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/2/2/139">experience</a> that has apparently failed to permeate development cooperation.</p>
<p>So, yes, Brazilian cooperation has disappointed in many ways and its brand is under stress. But let’s not prematurely dismiss Brazil from international development cooperation on the basis of its exuberant rhetoric and sloppy performance. Brazilian actors have a meaningful role to play in sharing the country’s rich and complex experiences. </p>
<p>The challenge, of course, is avoiding ready-made recipes, marketed as tropical silver bullets, and focusing more on processes or ways of developing policies that suit local contexts. This approach is less amenable to quick wins and requires the sort of enduring engagement on the ground that Brazil is still far from delivering. And so the waiting continues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56189/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lídia Cabral has done research on Brazilian cooperation under the ‘China and Brazil in African Agriculture’ project (<a href="http://www.future-agricutures.org/research/cbaa">www.future-agricutures.org/research/cbaa</a>), supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (grant: ES/J013420/1) under the Rising Powers and Interdependent Futures programme.</span></em></p>Lula led an unprecedented shift in the country’s foreign policy towards the global South. He also helped elevate Brazil to the status of a global player. But, six years on, disillusionment reigns.Lídia Cabral, Doctoral researcher, Institute of Development StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.