tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/conservative-12762/articlesConservative – The Conversation2023-12-19T13:17:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201262023-12-19T13:17:40Z2023-12-19T13:17:40ZPope Francis’ approval of blessings for LGBTQ+ couples is a historic gesture, according to a Catholic theologian<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566409/original/file-20231218-20-apod48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C3%2C2141%2C1329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pope Francis speaks during his weekly general audience in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican on Oct. 18, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VaticanLGBTQ/8556ca299dda4df394f5e8864e86a1c1/photo?Query=pope%20francis%20same%20sex&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=46&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pope Francis’ <a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=in%20lingua%20inglese-,Declaration,Presentation,-This%20Declaration%20considers">Dec. 18, 2023, announcement</a> that Catholic priests may bless LGBTQ+ couples and others in “irregular” situations marks a definitive shift in the Roman Catholic Church’s posture toward many types of loving relationships. It may also mark a definitive turning point within the Roman Catholic Church.</p>
<p>Across the last few years, Francis has <a href="https://theconversation.com/pope-francis-support-for-civil-unions-is-a-call-to-justice-and-nothing-new-148607">made gesture</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/it-shouldnt-seem-so-surprising-when-the-pope-says-being-gay-isnt-a-crime-a-catholic-theologian-explains-198566">after gesture</a> indicating his desire to find a way for the Catholic Church to accompany and welcome people whose loving relationships do not fit into the church’s sacramental understanding of marriage as between a man and a woman, ordered toward procreation and ended only by death.</p>
<p>He has telegraphed <a href="https://apnews.com/general-news-7b465b60945f40deb3a68b3de742f84a">for a long time</a> his desire to come to some new arrangement that would welcome loving relationships in the church without transforming the church’s doctrine on marriage and sexuality all at once – the Dec. 18 declaration seems to do exactly that. </p>
<h2>Pastoral emphasis</h2>
<p>First, let’s be clear about what this new declaration is not. The declaration does not permit the marriage of LGBTQ+ couples, or couples where parties are divorced without annulment of the marriage. Neither does the declaration permit any recognition of a civil marriage.</p>
<p>The declaration is specific that the blessing of relationships outside marriage must not be done in any way that might be confused with a marriage ceremony. In fact, the declaration encourages priests to be <a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=prayer%20preceding%20this-,spontaneous,-blessing%2C%20the%20ordained">responsive to “spontaneous</a>” requests for a blessing, and it forbids the creation of “<a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=The%20popular%20understanding%20of%20blessings%2C%20however%2C%20also%20values%20the%20importance%20of%20descending%20blessings.%20While%20%E2%80%9Cit%20is%20not%20appropriate%20for%20a%20Diocese%2C%20a%20Bishops%E2%80%99%20Conference%2C%20or%20any%20other%20ecclesial%20structure%20to%20constantly%20and%20officially%20establish%20procedures%20or%20rituals%20for%20all%20kinds%20of%20matters">procedures or rituals</a>” that would provide anything like a script for a blessing ceremony.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people stand in front of a cathedral while another man in white priestly garments blesses them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566410/original/file-20231218-19-qx13c9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Same-sex couples take part in a Catholic public blessing ceremony in Cologne, Germany, on Sept. 20, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VaticanLGBTQExplainer/fd76861aa59c4f43ab97ac397e74b082/photo?Query=pope%20francis%20same%20sex&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=46&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Martin Meissner</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, the declaration is remarkable for what it does do. Sidestepping difficult doctrinal questions that <a href="https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/255544/the-5-cardinals-behind-the-latest-dubia-issued-to-pope-francis">divide Catholics</a>, the document’s emphasis is pastoral – it is oriented toward caring for and ministering to people rather than teaching doctrine.<br>
The word “pastoral” appears 20 times in the declaration. Francis’ emphasis is unmistakable: The subject of the declaration is not marriage or sexual morality; the declaration is about something else.</p>
<h2>What ‘blessings’ mean in the church</h2>
<p>In fact, the declaration is about blessings and what they mean in the Catholic Church.</p>
<p>A long stretch of the document is devoted to defining and clarifying what the Roman Catholic Church means by the word “blessing.” <a href="https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_con_cfaith_risposta-dubia-2023_en.html#:%7E:text=For%2C%20when%20one%20asks%20for%20a%20blessing%2C%20one%20is%20expressing%20a%20petition%20for%20God%E2%80%99s%20assistance%2C%20a%20plea%20to%20live%20better%2C%20and%20confidence%20in%20a%20Father%20who%20can%20help%20us%20live%20better">Francis has said that</a> “when one asks for a blessing, one is expressing a petition for God’s assistance, a plea to live better, and a confidence in a Father who can help us live better.” A blessing is an “<a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=a%20superabundant%20and-,unconditional%20gift,-.">unconditional gift</a>” that “<a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=divine%20gift%20that%20%E2%80%9C-,descends,-%2C%E2%80%9D%20the%20human%20thanksgiving">descends</a>,” while our human thanksgiving “ascends” to God. </p>
<p>Blessings, in this pastoral sense, are events when our human dependence on God’s mercy is expressed as a desire for closeness with God. God, in Catholic belief, responds through the church. “<a href="https://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/audiences/2020/documents/papa-francesco_20201202_udienza-generale.html#:%7E:text=It%20is%20God%20who%20blesses">It is God who blesses</a>” in these situations, Francis has written. God’s blessing manifests through priests and ministers.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://b2c-cbp-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdfs/9780899425603.pdf">Book of Blessings</a> provides formulas for everything from blessing a new home or a safe voyage to blessings for elderly people and seeds at planting time. Yet often enough in Catholic life, blessing is requested for an object like a rosary or Bible. </p>
<p>When these desires for blessing arise spontaneously, the church’s ministers always accommodate them. The church’s doctrine says blessing is abundant and inexhaustible. “Such blessings are meant for everyone; no one is to be excluded from them,” <a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=Such%20blessings%20are%20meant%20for%20everyone%3B%20no%20one%20is%20to%20be%20excluded%20from%20them">the Dec. 18 declaration says</a>.</p>
<h2>Sidestepping difficult issues</h2>
<p>These meanings of “blessing” are distinct from the blessing in the Rite of the Sacrament of Marriage, which is specific to the “union of a man and a woman, who establish an exclusive and indissoluble covenant.” </p>
<p>Yet, within the scope of that much more broad, pastoral understanding of blessing, Francis has said with this declaration that blessing should not be withheld from LGBTQ+ couples or anyone else.</p>
<p>In this way, the pope has sidestepped the more difficult doctrinal questions while still inviting all couples to present themselves for the blessings they desire. </p>
<p>But the pope has not sidestepped the controversy. In recent decades, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/anglican-church-lgbtq-issues-4f635708fdb24df166ac8237f9473f00">Anglican Communion</a> and the <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2010/08/27/lutheran-split">Lutheran Church</a> have been roiled by controversy over LGBTQ+ acceptance. More recently, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congregations-leaving-united-methodist-church-lgbtq-bans-70b8c89ea49174597f4548c249bab24f">Methodist Church</a> in the United States has split over the issue. </p>
<p>Catholics are divided in a similar way, and this declaration is not likely to cool down divisions. In fact, I believe, those divisions will likely deepen – especially in the United States, where Catholic bishops <a href="https://www.usccb.org/news/2023/statement-usccb-vaticans-document-addressing-pastoral-blessings">have been tepid</a> in their response to the declaration and <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2023/11/02/cardinal-christoph-pierre-interview-246416">Francis has not been embraced enthusiastically</a>. </p>
<p>Yet for now, the Roman Catholic Church has made a historic gesture of welcome that invites all people to experience the love of God in a community of believers devoted toward building up a more just and equitable world. “The Church is … the sacrament of God’s infinite love,” <a href="https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2023/12/18/0901/01963.html#en:%7E:text=The%20Church%20is%20thus%20the%20sacrament%20of%20God%E2%80%99s%20infinite%20love">the declaration says</a>. </p>
<p>Pope Francis has been constant in that loving, pastoral emphasis. For as much as the Dec. 18 declaration has changed, it has not changed that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven P. Millies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In emphasizing the church’s love for all, including people in LGBTQ+ relationships, the pope has sidestepped thorny doctrinal issues.Steven P. Millies, Professor of Public Theology and Director of The Bernardin Center, Catholic Theological UnionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2106042023-08-25T11:31:22Z2023-08-25T11:31:22ZPlant-based meat sales are stagnating – our research suggests playing down its green benefits could attract more consumers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544266/original/file-20230823-17-prye45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=69%2C38%2C5038%2C3387&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hands-holding-burger-hamburger-meat-free-1975396499">Geshas/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s difficult to tell if the recent <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361697562_'Against_the_cult_of_veganism'_Unpacking_the_social_psychology_and_ideology_of_anti-vegans">wave of anti-vegan sentiment</a> has affected the plant-based meat market, but denigrating the image of vegans has certainly gone mainstream. </p>
<p>Alongside negative comments about people who don’t eat meat by figures like <a href="https://youtu.be/Xlrmfaw_BCI">Piers Morgan</a> and <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/veggie-jeremy-clarksons-got-diddly-squat-at-his-restaurant-r858k09ld">Jeremy Clarkson</a>, anti-vegan rhetoric has even slipped into political discourse: Suella Braverman recently referred to supporters of Just Stop Oil campaigners as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2022/oct/18/suella-braverman-blames-guardian-reading-tofu-eating-wokerati-for-disruptive-protests-video">Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati</a>”. It seems our protein choices have become a surprisingly loaded issue. </p>
<p>These days, consumers are faced with a dizzying array of choices when it comes to protein, particularly since US plant-based producer Beyond Meat started its quest to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/beyond-meats-chicken-came-first-and-it-was-a-failure.html">disrupt the market in 2012</a>. Since then, its innovative take on the veggie burger, made from pea protein to mimic the taste and texture of meat, has helped the company become a runaway success. </p>
<p>But despite sustained growth for several years, sales of plant-based meat products <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/4/17/23682232/impossible-beyond-plant-based-meat-sales">are now stagnating</a>. Even market leaders like Beyond Meat are hitting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/08/sales-at-vegan-burger-maker-beyond-meat-fall-by-almost-a-third">significant lows</a>. </p>
<p>The environmental benefits of adopting a diet that is <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">less reliant on meat</a> have been well-established. As UK nature presenter <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/david-attenborough-%20vegetarian-vegan-meat-life-on-our-planet-netflix-wildlife-earth-a9689816.html">David Attenborough has pointed out</a>: “We must change our diet. The planet can’t support billions of meat-eaters.” </p>
<p>So, working out why consumers are cooling towards this once-hot product is crucial, not only from a business point of view but to support the environmental benefits of low- or no-meat diets.</p>
<p>Price and healthiness are important. However, a growing ideological divide over the environment means traditional ways of encouraging people to eat plant-based meat – promoting its green credentials – could be harming sales, according to research.</p>
<h2>Criticism of plant-based meat</h2>
<p>The plant-based meat market has certainly been criticised for <a href="https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/plant-based-alternatives-can-cost-twice-as-much-%20as-meat-which-finds-a4AzY8r4gTpO">high prices</a> compared with <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/impossible-foods-beyond-meat-battle-price-%20parity-with-real-meat.html">animal meat</a>. It also tends to be more expensive than traditional vegan protein sources, such as beans, lentils and tofu. Given the cost of living crisis, consumers are forced to make frugal choices when it comes to their shopping baskets, and may reject what could be seen as a premium product. </p>
<p>Others have questioned the healthiness of meat substitutes. As plant-based meat is a relatively new product, the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37117959/">long-term health implications</a> of directly replacing animal meat with it are unknown. Research also <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35558740/">warns against assuming</a> that plant-based meat is nutritionally equivalent to animal meat.</p>
<p>But alongside price and healthiness, image also plays an important role in the success of plant-based brands, according to my research with <a href="https://www.babson.edu/about/our-leaders-and-scholars/faculty-and-academic-divisions/faculty-profiles/krista-hill-cummings.php">Krista Hill Cummings of Babson College</a>, Massachusetts. In particular, how brands present the environmental benefits of plant-based meat can have a significant impact on the kinds of consumers that buy this type of food.</p>
<p>The issue of climate change and environmental concern is politically polarising, however. Since the 1990s, environmentalism has been depicted as <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241737833_A_Widening_Gap_Republican_and_Democratic_Views_on_Climate_Change">a left-wing ideological issue</a>, particularly in the US. So, our study sought to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195666323001277?via%3Dihub">examine the role of political beliefs</a> in driving sales of plant-based meat by, first, establishing a link between a person’s ideology (either conservative or liberal) and their desire to engage with the plant-based meat market. This means everything from becoming aware of the product and developing opinions on it, right through to buying and eating plant-based meats.</p>
<p>A different survey shows that <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/future-of-fresh-food-sales/plant-based-meat-sales.html">more than half (53%)</a> of US consumers who have not bought or tried plant-based meat may be reluctant to buy a product they view as “woke”. Our study further highlights the political divide in views about plant-based meat, with the conservative consumers we polled less likely than liberals to try it, and generally less interested in even considering it.</p>
<p>We analysed press releases from Beyond Meat to understand how the benefits of plant-based meat are being communicated to consumers, to see if this could be a driver of the ideological divide over plant-based meat. We found that taste, health and the environment are the main messages used by the firm. </p>
<p>Taste and health are product benefits that appeal to both liberal and conservative consumers, according to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28890390/">other</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pops.12347">research</a>. However, the environment emerged as a more controversial topic. This issue polarised liberal and conservative consumers when it came to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24746473/">perceiving climate change as a problem</a> that could or should be addressed by eating plant-based meat. </p>
<h2>Testing ads about the environment</h2>
<p>To further test the idea that the environment could cause problems when advertising to conservative consumers, we created different messages, varying the environmental content. We developed mock Facebook ads that described either the health and environmental benefits of plant-based meat, or just the health benefits. We found that advertising content based on the environment turned off the conservative consumers involved in our study. </p>
<p>Of course, our study was carried out among US consumers. But the trend of <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpos.2021.622512/full">political polarisation</a> seen across Europe, and recent comments about the vegan “wokerati” lifestyle from UK public figures, means we could see similar results in other countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Shop shelves with rows of different packaged alternative meat products." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544269/original/file-20230823-17-j7da7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shoppers have a growing choice of non-meat protein products but not everyone is keen to try them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amsterdam-october-2017-display-large-collection-732291337">www.hollandfoto.net/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For an advertising message to successfully resonate and change either a consumer’s attitude or behaviour, “congruence” is required. This is when the message content aligns with the characteristics of its recipient. We found that environmental messaging is incongruent to conservative consumers, meaning these ads don’t spark either their curiosity or interest. Without that spark, you can’t engage consumers.</p>
<p>More research into, and development of, alternative meats <a href="https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/plant-based-meat-alternatives-technological-nutritional-environme">could no doubt improve</a> the
nutritional profile, taste and texture of these products, but the environmental case for reducing meat consumption in our diets is clear. Plant-based brands need to change the way they speak to consumers about this issue to better engage steadfast meat-eaters.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210604/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Yule does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>US study shows environmental messages can put conservative consumers off trying and buying plant-based products.Jennifer Yule, Lecturer in Marketing, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099532023-07-27T21:19:55Z2023-07-27T21:19:55ZChallenges to free trade reveal a big change in conservative ideology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539657/original/file-20230726-23-1wern1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4992%2C3196&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cargo containers are seen on the Maersk Stockholm ship while docked at port in Vancouver in April 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/challenges-to-free-trade-reveal-a-big-change-in-conservative-ideology" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The pursuit of greater economic integration through expanded free trade has long been central to the economic policy of most western democracies, including Canada. </p>
<p>Since the implementation of the <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/united-states-canada-free-trade-agreement">Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement in 1988</a>, both Liberal and Conservative governments have pursued and continue to pursue <a href="https://pfcollins.com/canadas-free-trade-agreements/">more free-trade zones with additional partners in Europe, the Americas and the Pacific Rim</a>. </p>
<p>Recently, however, this general international consensus appears to be unravelling. Trade liberalization is being attacked for <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2022/international-trade-income-inequality-0607">promoting income inequality</a>, <a href="https://hbr.org/1988/09/manufacturing-offshore-is-bad-business">hollowing out the manufacturing sector</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937802200005X">perpetuating underdevelopment in the Global South</a> and increasing the influence of morally dubious states and <a href="https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/global-social-challenges/2022/07/16/free-trade-has-made-corporations-too-powerful/">international corporations</a>. </p>
<p>Economic and social criticisms of free trade, particularly from more left-wing positions, are well-established and longstanding. However, more recent and growing criticisms are now <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/03/31/republicans-especially-trump-supporters-see-free-trade-deals-as-bad-for-u-s/">emerging from the right</a> in Europe and the United States. </p>
<h2>Conservative shift</h2>
<p>These condemnations are effectively disrupting the longstanding ideological orthodoxy that conservatives have maintained when it comes to free trade.</p>
<p>They also reflect not so much an economic critique as they do a preoccupation with social and cultural policy. In fact, these criticisms are tied to many of the broader transformations that are beginning to characterize contemporary conservative politics. </p>
<p>Modern-day conservative enthusiasm for free trade consolidated in the 1980s as a component of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/705/chapter-abstract/135378613?redirectedFrom=fulltext">a broader shift to neoliberalism</a> that, while felt across the political spectrum, was particularly pronounced for the right. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">What exactly is neoliberalism?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It drew upon the influence of <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/05/14/friedrich-hayek-long-shadow-austrian-school/">Friedrich August von Hayek, an Austrian-British economist, and the “Austrian school” of economics</a> to argue that the state should operate like a free market and social and cultural issues should be a matter of individual discretion. </p>
<p>Free trade, therefore, was advocated as part of a greater project aiming for greater economic deregulation and state rollback that proponents argued would be more conducive to individual freedoms.</p>
<p>This consensus, however, was challenged by insurgent radical right-wing parties. Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in 2016 partly on his allegations that America’s <a href="https://time.com/4386335/donald-trump-trade-speech-transcript/">free-trade deals were “rigged” by inept domestic negotiators</a> and malicious international entities.</p>
<p>His administration <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2019-08-12/trumps-assault-global-trading-system">sought to shake up the status quo</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/#:%7E:text=On%20his%20first%20day%20in,era%20of%20multinational%20trade%20agreements.">pulling out of Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/business/economy/trump-steel-tariffs.html#:%7E:text=Trump%20said.,it%20came%20as%20a%20relief.">imposing protectionism on steel and aluminum</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2020/08/09/the-verdict-on-trump-trade-policy-part-1-fixing-nafta/?sh=5c6449ac5a2f">renegotiating NAFTA</a> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/">and starting a trade war with China.</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blond rotund man grimaces with his hands in fists in the cab of an 18-wheeler truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this March 2017 photo, Donald Trump gestures while sitting in an 18-wheeler truck while meeting with truckers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Class divisions</h2>
<p>Since then, a number of American conservatives — such as Republican senators J.D. Vance and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/opinion/hawley-supply-chain-trade-policy.html">Josh Hawley</a> — have developed a more comprehensive form of opposition. </p>
<p>Vance has criticized free trade for empowering a cosmopolitan, socially progressive urban class <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/towards-a-pro-worker-pro-family-conservatism/">at the expense of the average American worker</a>. Shut out of wage and labour mobility, he says these working-class Americans are unable to establish a base of financial independence necessary for thriving communities. </p>
<p>These conservatives advocate for protectionism as part of broader state-directed industrial policy to pursue more desirable social ends; a shift to a more robust and interventionist state. </p>
<p>They also want a government that is more morally partial. This means that unlike the prior emphasis on individual freedom or discretion, they challenge the idea that the state can be neutral when it comes to moral, cultural and spiritual values.</p>
<p>Their goals include the revival of domestic manufacturing capacity, <a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/americas-epicurean-liberalism">individual economic self-determination</a> and strong families, even though these aims might counteract free-market incentives. </p>
<p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3670801-republicans-are-the-new-isolationists-will-us-retreat-from-world-stage/">Changes in conservative thinking on foreign policy</a> are also relevant. Conservatives are moving away from the prior emphasis on international intervention and interdependence to more of an “America First” idea that the U.S. ought to prioritize the needs of its own citizens than those abroad.</p>
<p>Free trade is also attacked for providing avenues for potentially malicious entities — including rival states like China, international organizations, or powerful corporate interests — to undermine national well-being. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-two-key-issues-on-the-table-to-bring-canada-back-into-nafta-102545">The two key issues on the table to bring Canada back into NAFTA</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Canada’s conservative history</h2>
<p>So far, this shift has had only minimal impact on conservatives in Canada. But recent federal Conservative leaders, while generally supportive of further trade liberalization, have alluded to changing their thinking on trade and foreign policy. </p>
<p>Former Conservative Party of Canada leader Erin O’Toole, for example, broadly referred to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-o-toole-pnp-interview-1.5716115">“Canada First” approach</a> that emphasized greater industrial self-sufficiency along with skepticism towards China. Current leader Pierre Poilievre has <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/poilievre-promises-to-ban-all-overseas-oil-imports-within-five-years-of-being-elected-remove-government-red-tape-blocking-west-to-east-pipelines">promised a ban on all overseas oil imports</a>. </p>
<p>Canadian conservatives were once against free trade. Prior to 1988 — when the Canada-U.S. free-trade deal was signed — they had a very different approach to economic policy and many believed encouraging continental integration would fundamentally weaken Canadian sovereignty and national distinctiveness. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man with grey hair and a moustache smiles among a crowd in a black-and-white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Robert Borden is greeted in London, England in 1912.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(National Archives of Canada)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 1911 election, for example, Robert Borden’s Conservatives <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-economics-and-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-economiques-et-science-politique/article/abs/robert-borden-and-the-election-of-1911/719CED587379B5745B882CE73B70A467">campaigned against Liberal Wilfrid Laurier government’s free-trade policy</a> on the claim it would “Americanize” Canada. </p>
<p>John A. Macdonald’s <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/poilievre-promises-to-ban-all-overseas-oil-imports-within-five-years-of-being-elected-remove-government-red-tape-blocking-west-to-east-pipelines">national policy</a>, as pursued by Conservative governments throughout the early 20th century, levied high tariffs on foreign imported goods to help Canadian manufacturing withstand American competition.</p>
<p>In contrast to today’s conservatism, these early Canadian conservatives demonstrated support for a large, interventionist state — and not the free market — to support the expansion of national banking, transportation and infrastructure. </p>
<p>As free trade continues to come under attack by modern-day conservatives, this history may provide signposts to follow international trends — which could have important consequences for Canadian partisan politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Contemporary conservatives have largely been pro-free trade. That’s no longer the case. What’s fuelling the change?Sam Routley, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055522023-07-11T12:28:34Z2023-07-11T12:28:34ZLiberal CEOs were more likely to exit Russia following its invasion of Ukraine than more conservative corporate leaders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534665/original/file-20230628-21915-rn71zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=94%2C49%2C2901%2C1944&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Burberry was one of the first Western companies to announce it was suspending sales in Russia after the invasion. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-tower-of-kremlin-reflexing-in-a-window-of-closed-news-photo/1239055957">Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em> </p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Companies led by liberal-leaning CEOs were more likely to leave Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 than those helmed by conservatives, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2023.101475">our new study</a>. We measured their political leanings based on how much they donated to the two main U.S. political parties over five recent federal election cycles. </p>
<p>In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, <a href="https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain">over 1,000 companies said they would divest</a>, abandon or pause their operations in the country. Some, however, chose to stay. We wanted to understand what drove that decision, and we felt that their executives’ political leanings might be a driver, <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/03/in-light-of-russia-sanctions-consider-your-conditions-for-doing-business-in-other-countries">given the frequent references to ethics</a> and ideology in the corporate statements of businesses exiting Russia.</p>
<p>So we took a list of 189 U.S.-based public companies that <a href="https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain">had business in Russia prior to the invasion</a> from a website run by a team at Yale University that has been tracking the corporate response since Feb. 28, 2022. To determine political leanings, we examined the donations of their CEOs during every federal election from 2012 through 2020 and gave them a score depending on how much they gave to Democrats versus Republicans.</p>
<p>We then looked at how the companies responded during the war’s first 40 days, relying on the Yale database, with a focus on whether they chose to abandon Russia or not. </p>
<p>A tad over 30% of companies in our sample chose to leave Russia at the onset of the conflict, while 39% suspended their operations at least temporarily and another 8% scaled back their investments. On the other hand, 14% put new projects on hold but carried on existing operations, and 8% carried on business as normal. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that companies with more liberal CEOs – including ride-hailing app Uber, vacation rental company Airbnb and computer maker Apple – were more likely to either leave or suspend their operations. Conservative-led businesses, such as hotel chain Hilton and consumer goods company <a href="https://us.pg.com/blogs/pg-european-operations-update/">Procter & Gamble</a>, tended to be the ones that maintained business as usual or did little more than pause new investments. </p>
<p>We didn’t track corporate actions after the first 40 days, but we do know that some of these companies continue to do business in Russia – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/oreo-maker-mondelez-faces-nordic-backlash-over-russia-business-2023-06-12/">despite pressure to cease operations</a>.</p>
<p>We also considered 18 other variables that may have had some impact on a company’s decision to stay or go, such as their industry, size and board composition. We found that although CEO ideology had one of the strongest impacts on the decision, some other factors mattered more, such as industry. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Companies have traditionally <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html">made most business decisions</a> – including whether or not to abandon an entire market – by gauging economic or financial factors. And they’ve tended to stay out of politics to avoid alienating their customers.</p>
<p>In recent years, corporate CEOs <a href="https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2018.0084">have become more willing to disclose</a> their ideological position on controversial social issues. And increasingly, political ideology of the CEO has become another key factor driving business decisions, as our own research confirms. </p>
<p>Because the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206320909419">appears increasingly polarized</a> along a conservative-liberal axis, it’s important to be aware of how corporate leaders’ personal politics are affecting their decisions. And that creates the possibility that such decisions are informed by ideological biases rather than purely objective economic data.</p>
<p>The costs of these choices are high, as some companies said they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/03/bp-profit-russia/">lost billions of dollars</a> in revenue because of their decision to leave the Russian market.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>A big question remains over what this means for the role of corporations in society. </p>
<p>On the one hand, corporations have long been expected to <a href="https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/09/17/the-friedman-essay-and-the-true-purpose-of-the-business-corporation/">put the interests of shareholders</a> – and their profits – above pretty much everything else. On the other, there’s growing evidence that companies are taking a much broader perspective on the purpose of the corporation, notably <a href="https://www.businessroundtable.org/business-roundtable-redefines-the-purpose-of-a-corporation-to-promote-an-economy-that-serves-all-americans">expressed in a 2019 pledge</a> by 131 companies to “promote an economy that serves all Americans.”</p>
<p>Liberal CEOS <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839213486984">are more likely to take</a> on that broader perspective than conservative executives, who still tend to put a greater emphasis on shareholder wealth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study found that a CEO’s political ideology was correlated with the decision of whether to leave or suspend operations in Russia following the 2022 invasion.Yannick Thams, Associate Professor of Strategy and International Business, Florida Atlantic UniversityLuis Alfonso Dau, Associate Professor of International Business and Strategy, Northeastern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2019002023-04-19T12:45:25Z2023-04-19T12:45:25ZTo understand American politics, you need to move beyond left and right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520636/original/file-20230412-18-9xinwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C0%2C6968%2C4000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's a more sophisticated way to understand how Americans divide themselves politically.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-us-election-badges-with-the-national-flag-royalty-free-image/1340786091?phrase=right%20and%20left%20in%20politics%20U.S.%20&adppopup=true">Torsten Asmus/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Are Americans really as politically polarized as they seem – and everybody says? </p>
<p>It’s definitely true that Democrats and Republicans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034">increasingly hate and fear one another</a>. But this animosity seems to have more to do with tribal loyalty than liberal-versus-conservative <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfy005">disagreements about policy</a>. Our research into what Americans actually want in terms of policy shows that many have strong political views that can’t really be characterized in terms of “right” or “left.” </p>
<p>The media often talks about the American political landscape as if it were a line. Liberal Democrats are on the left, conservative Republicans on the right, and a small sliver of moderate independents are in the middle. But <a href="https://www.brandeis.edu/cmjs/about/people/wright.html">political scientists</a> <a href="https://cssh.northeastern.edu/student/sasha-volodarsky/">like us</a> have long argued that a line is a bad metaphor for how Americans think about politics. </p>
<p>Sometimes scholars and pundits will argue that views on economic issues like taxes and income redistribution, and views on so-called social or cultural issues like abortion and gay marriage, actually represent two distinct dimensions in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060314-115422">American political attitudes</a>. Americans, they say, can have liberal views on one dimension <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/351494/americans-divided-social-economic-issues.aspx">but conservative views on the other</a>. So you could have a pro-choice voter who wants lower taxes, or a pro-life voter who wants the government to do more to help the poor. </p>
<p>But even this more sophisticated, two-dimensional picture doesn’t reveal what Americans actually want the government to do – or not do – when it comes to policy. </p>
<p>First, it ignores some of the most contentious topics in American politics today, like <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/31/1131789230/supreme-court-affirmative-action-harvard-unc">affirmative action</a>, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-convention-embraces-black-lives-matter/2020/08/18/f1de2ce8-e0f7-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html">Black Lives Matter movement</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/16/desantis-anti-woke-law-00087483">attempts to stamp out “wokeness”</a> on college campuses.</p>
<p>Since 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidency while simultaneously <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-fresh-look-back-at-2016-finds-america-with-an-identity-crisis/2018/09/15/0ac62364-b8f0-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html">stoking racial anxieties</a> and bucking Republican orthodoxy on <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-breaks-gop-orthodoxy-taxes-msna670121">taxes</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/trump-says-he-s-fine-gay-marriage-60-minutes-interview-n683606">same-sex marriage</a>, it has become clear that what Americans think about politics can’t really be understood without knowing what they think about racism, and what – if anything – they want done about it. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a white shirt and tie with gray hair, standing at a lectern outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520635/original/file-20230412-20-95tq6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Racial Justice Communitarians’ have liberal views on economic issues and moderate or conservative views on moral issues; some Black evangelicals supported Barack Obama but were troubled by his support for same-sex marriage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-barack-obama-speaks-at-capital-university-on-news-photo/160056112?adppopup=true">Charles Ommanney/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recently, some political scientists have argued that views on racial issues represent a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/sf/article/96/4/1757/4781058">third “dimension” in American politics</a>. But there are other problems with treating political attitudes as a set of “dimensions” in the first place. For example, even a “3D” picture doesn’t allow for the possibility that Americans with conservative economic views tend to also hold conservative racial views, while Americans with liberal economic views are deeply divided on issues related to race. </p>
<h2>A new picture of American politics</h2>
<p>In our new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/soin.12517">article in Sociological Inquiry</a>, we analyzed public opinion data from 2004 to 2020 to develop a more nuanced picture of American political attitudes. Our aim was to do a better job of figuring out what Americans actually think about politics, including policies related to race and racism. </p>
<p>Using a new analytic method that doesn’t force us to think in terms of dimensions at all, we found that, over the past two decades, Americans can be broadly divided into five different groups.</p>
<p>In most years, slightly less than half of all Americans had consistently liberal or conservative views on policies related to the economy, morality and race, and thus fall into one of two groups. </p>
<p>“Consistent Conservatives” tend to believe that the free market should be given free rein in the economy, are generally anti-abortion, tend to say that they support “traditional family ties” and oppose most government efforts to address racial disparities. These Americans almost exclusively identify themselves as Republicans.</p>
<p>“Consistent Liberals” strongly support government intervention in the economy, tend to be in favor of abortion rights and pro-same-sex marriage and feel that the government has a responsibility to help address discrimination against Black Americans. They mostly identify as Democrats.</p>
<p>But the majority of Americans, who don’t fall into one of these two groups, are not necessarily “moderates,” as they are often characterized. Many have very strong views on certain issues, but can’t be pigeonholed as being on the left or right in general. </p>
<p>Instead, we find that these Americans can be classified as one of three groups, whose size and relationship to the two major parties change from one election cycle to the next: </p>
<p>“Racial Justice Communitarians” have liberal views on economic issues like taxes and redistribution and moderate or conservative views on moral issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. They also strongly believe that the government has a responsibility to address racial discrimination. This group likely includes many of the Black evangelicals who strongly supported Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, but were also deeply uncomfortable with his expression of <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/05/10/152442748/black-voters-likely-to-stick-with-obama-despite-gay-marriage-stance">support for same-sex marriage in 2012</a>.</p>
<p>“Nativist Communitarians” also have liberal views on economics and conservative views on moral issues, but they are extremely conservative with respect to race and immigration, in some cases even more so than Consistent Conservatives. Picture, for instance, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds">those voters in 2016</a> who were attracted to both Bernie Sanders’ economic populism and Donald Trump’s attacks on immigrants. </p>
<p>“Libertarians,” who we find became much more prominent after the tea party protests of 2010, are conservative on economic issues, liberal on social issues and have mixed but generally conservative views in regard to racial issues. Think here of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/18/d-c-silicon-valley-00087611">Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and venture capitalists</a> who think that the government has no business telling them how to run their company – or telling gay couples that they can’t get married.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large collection of colorful campaign signs placed in the ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520633/original/file-20230412-18-ejntu7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three groups of Americans have a difficult time fitting in with either of America’s two major parties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/campaign-signs-are-shown-near-voters-waiting-in-line-at-news-photo/1244613234?adppopup=true">Ronda Churchill/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Five groups – but only two parties</h2>
<p>These three groups of Americans have a difficult time fitting in with either of the two major parties in the U.S. </p>
<p>In every year we looked, the Racial Justice Communitarians – who include the largest percentage of nonwhite Americans – were most likely to identify as Democrats. But in some years up to 40% still thought of themselves as Republicans or independents.</p>
<p>Nativist Communitarians and Libertarians are even harder to pin down. During the Obama years they were actually slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans. But since Trump’s rise in 2016, both groups are now slightly more likely to identify as Republicans, although large percentages of each group describe themselves as independents or Democrats.</p>
<p>Seeing Americans as divided into these five groups – as opposed to polarized between the left and right – shows that both political parties are competing for coalitions of voters with different combinations of views.</p>
<p>Many Racial Justice Communitarians disagree with the Democratic Party when it comes to cultural and social issues. But the party probably can’t win national elections without their votes. And, unless they are willing to make a strong push for promoting “racial justice,” the Republican Party’s national electoral prospects probably depend on attracting significant support from either the economically liberal Nativist Communitarians or the socially liberal Libertarians. </p>
<p>But perhaps most importantly, these five groups show how diverse Americans’ political attitudes really are. Just because American democracy is a two-party system doesn’t mean that there are only two kinds of American voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We often talk about the American political landscape as if it were a line – Democrats on the left, Republicans on the right. Two political scientists say that view doesn’t reflect reality.Graham Wright, Associate Research Scientist, Maurice & Marilyn Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies, Brandeis UniversitySasha Volodarsky, Ph.D. Student in Political Science, Northeastern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910042022-10-16T19:02:17Z2022-10-16T19:02:17ZClive Hamilton’s activism memoir wars with neoliberals, the ‘naive’ left and China<p>Clive Hamilton personifies the Australian progressive “public intellectual”. He’s a prolific author of opinion articles and books, concerned “to make a difference in the world” by persuading people to engage with “powerful ideas”. </p>
<p>His memoir describes almost 40 years of activism. The tone is often confessional: he admits to an introvert’s terror at electioneering and a white progressive’s anxiety about what to say to Indigenous people. Despite this, <a href="https://www.hardiegrant.com/au/publishing/bookfinder/book/provocateur-by-clive-hamilton/9781743798577">Provocateur</a> is most of all a narrative of “ideas in action”, embodied by one individual.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Review: Provocateur: A life of ideas in action – Clive Hamilton (Hardie Grant)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Hamilton’s fame is closely linked to <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/">The Australia Institute</a>, which he founded in 1994. Since then it has come to dominate the progressive think-tank landscape. His narrative offers much guidance for think-tank progressives: a relentless focus on media relations and public impact, and most of all, an ability to discern the mood of progressive opinion. Hamilton may be aligned with the Greens, but he has little time for the amateurism and self-absorption that were once Greens traditions. </p>
<h2>Appealing to the unconverted</h2>
<p>Progressives, Hamilton argues, should initially talk among themselves – but then move on to appealing to the unconverted. He is an enthusiast for focus groups and opinion polling. In the battle for media attention, Hamilton is aware of the power of provocation and outrage. He admits he sometimes deliberately overstates his certainty, aiming to generate opposition. He has little interest in understanding the motives of his opponents, who include “postmodern” academics, Chinese nationalists, pornography consumers and affluent suburbanites. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="book cover: Provocateur by Clive Hamilton" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489685/original/file-20221013-12-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hamilton’s narrative expresses a religious sympathy; he is deeply critical of the secular, rationalist denial of the sacred. At one point he takes pride in a description of himself as a cleric without the cloth. But he’s not attracted to the Christian virtue of forgiveness. </p>
<p>This is a very Protestant book; the sentiment is that of a 19th-century liberal, free-trade nonconformist doing battle for the Lord and His earthly causes. His style is solitary; Hamilton is not a committee man, and in The Australia Institute’s legal battles, he is often frustrated by his more cautious colleagues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-seriously-tried-to-believe-capitalism-and-the-planet-can-coexist-but-ive-lost-faith-131288">I've seriously tried to believe capitalism and the planet can coexist, but I've lost faith</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wars with consumerism and ‘affluenza’</h2>
<p>The first two-thirds of the book are mostly about the campaigns of The Australia Institute. The cases speak to Hamilton’s preferred themes and his eye for the zeitgeist. His imagined audience is less the organised left than a broader milieu, anxious about excessive individualism and greed: small “c” conservatives who know something is deeply wrong with the world in ways the champions of progress ignore. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Book cover: Growth Fetish by Clive Hamilton" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489687/original/file-20221013-15-z1vhte.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hamilton’s (and The Australia Institute’s) war with consumerism and affluenza, as covered in his 2003 book <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Clive-Hamilton-Growth-Fetish-9781741140781">Growth Fetish</a>, appealed to those traumatised by John Howard’s materialist ascendancy. Two chapters cover Hamilton’s battle with the retailer David Jones – a war sparked by a 2006 <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/corporate-paedophilia-sexualisation-of-children-in-australia">Australia Institute report</a> that accused the retailer of “corporate paedophilia”, on the grounds that its advertising material sexualised children. David Jones sued The Australia Institute, and Hamilton as executive director, for “misleading and deceptive conduct” under the Trade Practices Act. They withdrew their action (first threatened in October 2006) in April 2008, after nearly 18 months of engagement. </p>
<p>This was the archetypal Australia Institute campaign: a bold offensive for the moral high ground, followed by grim defence against a cashed-up opponent. The narrative reveals a lot about the ability of the wealthy to use the legal system against their opponents. It also shows Hamilton at war with much of the self-identified left. His “sex-positive” critics, such as <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/the-porn-report-paperback-softback">Catherine Lumby</a> or <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/panic">David Marr</a>, are cast as shallow libertarians –acquiescent to capitalist individualism and indifferent to the social decay of modern society. </p>
<p>Throughout the book, Hamilton accuses the “left” of capitulating to identity politics and libertarianism. Here, he swims with the tide of much contemporary Australian opinion: <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/liberalism-is-alive-and-its-killing-us-why-postliberalism-is-the-answer-20140903-108v50.html">left</a> and <a href="https://www.connorcourtpublishing.com.au/LIBERAL-SHOCK-The-Conservative-Comeback--William-Dawes-Editor_p_292.html">right</a>. He offers a “post-liberal” dismissal of liberalism as selfish, atomistic individualism. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/book-review-hidden-hand-exposing-how-the-chinese-communist-party-is-reshaping-the-world-142058">Book Review: Hidden Hand – Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party is Reshaping the World</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Climate politics and China</h2>
<p>Climate politics, above all, is central to the first part of the book. The story here is familiar and depressing: the “greenhouse mafia”, the duplicities of “moderate” Liberals, and the failures of former prime minister Kevin Rudd. The result, as Hamilton sees it, is a looming climate catastrophe. He doesn’t share the optimistic view of Rudd’s former climate advisor Ross Garnaut that <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/superpower">rational policy will eventually triumph</a>.</p>
<p>Hamilton’s work with The Australia Institute often reflected an optimistic sensibility: the belief people were ready to embrace alternatives to neoliberal individualism – and that some had already begun to move in this direction (for example, by “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-suburbs-are-the-spiritual-home-of-overconsumption-but-they-also-hold-the-key-to-a-better-future-108496">downshifting</a>”). The climate crisis challenged Hamilton’s optimism and left him adrift and exhausted. </p>
<p>Despair at the failure of climate activism drove his shift to warning against the threat of China – more specifically, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/chinese-communist-party-2614">Chinese Communist Party</a>. It’s the focus of the final third of the book. This section is hard to judge.</p>
<p>In part, it combines a principled critique of Australian foreign policy with a reasoned condemnation of the actions of the Chinese government and its supporters – and a depressing account of the unwillingness of publishers to challenge a great power. Hamilton’s first China book, <a href="https://theconversation.com/book-review-clive-hamiltons-silent-invasion-chinas-influence-in-australia-93650">Silent Invasion</a>, was abandoned by two major publishers – <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/free-speech-fears-after-book-critical-of-china-is-pulled-from-publication-20171112-gzjiyr.html">Allen & Unwin</a> and then <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/controversial-china-book-may-get-parliamentary-protection-20180205-p4yzfy.html">Melbourne University Publishing</a> – due to fear of legal action (and for Allen & Unwin, fear of reprisal from China too).</p>
<p>Behind the book lurks the old trope of left disillusionment: the complaint that “the left” has betrayed its values. Most of all, it recalls <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/mission-0">Noel Pearson</a> or <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/the-politics-of-suffering-paperback-softback">Phillip Sutton</a> complaining “the left” was indifferent to the dysfunctional reality of many Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>Hamilton rails against what he sees as the naivety of the left – but also the hidden hand of China, whose agents (and unwitting agents) he perceives everywhere: <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-paul-keating-transformed-the-economy-and-the-nation-131562">Paul Keating</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/bob-carrs-diary-reveals-a-true-satirist-a-self-made-grotesque-25453">Bob Carr</a>, Tasmanian Liberal and Labor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-if-growing-us-china-rivalry-leads-to-the-worst-war-ever-what-should-australia-do-185294">Hugh White</a>, Geraldine Doogue. He even sees them within Daniel Andrews’ staff. <a href="https://theconversation.com/robert-manne-how-we-came-to-be-so-cruel-to-asylum-seekers-67542">Robert Manne</a> launched Hamilton’s unsuccessful Greens candidacy in the 2009 Higgins by-election, but Hamilton accepts the breakdown of relations between them over the China issue.</p>
<p>Hamilton seems to view some on the right more favourably. He appears on the Bolt Report – not because of any sympathy for Andrew Bolt, but in the hope of appealing to some of Bolt’s audience (just as he sought conservative support in his campaign against “corporate paedophilia”). Hamilton talks to security intellectuals, and credits former US president Donald Trump for recognising the China threat, in contrast with the naivety of his predecessor Barack Obama.</p>
<p>Despite this, Hamilton’s story is not a neoconservative one. His unhappiness with much of the left does not impel him to forgive old enemies, such as The Australian newspaper. He would never follow the example of <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrisons-gilmore-candidate-is-the-man-whos-been-everywhere-110300">Warren Mundine</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/unleashed-latham-too-opinionated-even-for-an-increasingly-opinionated-sky-75415">Mark Latham</a>. He remains a strong critic of modern materialism and growth mania, and an advocate of radical climate action. Most of all, he is still a seeker in search of meaning.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-2022-election-results-coalition-routed-in-cities-and-in-western-australia-can-they-recover-in-2025-184755">2022 federal election</a> provides a real-world coda to Provocateur. Hamilton has had a long association with the Greens. But his sensibility seems a poor fit for Adam Bandt’s social democracy. </p>
<p>In many aspects, this book speaks more to <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672">the “teals”</a>. Not to their Turnbullite MPs, but to the army who impelled them to victory: the moral middle-class, Boomer and millennial, precariat and retired, rich and poor. Provocateur will need a sequel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donated to the campaign of a Labor candidate in the 2022 federal election. </span></em></p>Clive Hamilton’s memoir of 40 years in activism is most of all a narrative of ideas in action. He argues for the power of provocation – and against the left, the right and China.Geoffrey Robinson, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837122022-06-17T14:20:16Z2022-06-17T14:20:16ZThe history of Southern Baptists shows they have not always opposed abortion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469029/original/file-20220615-23-w8236r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=119%2C25%2C5561%2C3742&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Attendees pray during a worship service at the Southern Baptist Convention's annual meeting in Anaheim, California, on June 14, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SouthernBaptists/be5739958c124002a67604c14f29ec0b/photo?Query=southern%20baptist%20convention&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=425&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Jae C. Hong</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With an abortion case now before the U.S. Supreme Court, the Southern Baptist Convention of June 2022 encouraged its members <a href="https://sbcannualmeeting.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-SBC-Resolutions.pdf">to pray for the overturning</a> of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in the U.S. </p>
<p>The resolution, “On Anticipation of a Historic Moment in the Pro-Life Movement,” was not without controversy, however. A faction of Southern Baptists who consider themselves “abortion <a href="https://www.christianpost.com/news/southern-baptists-debate-how-to-best-be-pro-life.html">abolitionists</a>” argued the Convention should also call for the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-effort-to-abolish-southern-baptist-public-policy-arm-over-abortion-debate-fails/ar-AAYugOA">criminalizing</a> of people who have abortions as murderers. Instead, the resolution calls on Southern Baptists to stand with and pray for “abortion-vulnerable women.”</p>
<p>The Southern Baptist Convention, the largest Protestant denomination in the U.S., and often referred to as the “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/us/southern-baptists-convention.html">bellwether for conservative Christianity</a>,” has long voiced opposition to abortion. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/religious-denomination/southern-baptist-convention/views-about-abortion/#beliefs-and-practices">A Pew survey</a> in 2014 found that two-thirds of Southern Baptists believed abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. In 2021, the Convention passed a <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/on-abolishing-abortion/">resolution</a> stating “unequivocally that abortion is murder” and calling for “abolishing abortion immediately, without exception or compromise.” </p>
<p>But Southern Baptists have not always been opposed to abortion.</p>
<p>The Convention expressed support for abortion in certain cases throughout the 1970s, until a more conservative wing seized control in the 1980s. I was a Southern Baptist at the time, and <a href="https://liberalarts.oregonstate.edu/users/susan-shaw">I now study the denomination</a>. I understand the Convention’s stance against abortion as a reflection of leaders’ conservative beliefs about women, gender and sexuality. </p>
<h2>Support for abortion</h2>
<p>Early on, many evangelicals, including Southern Baptists, saw opposition to legal abortion as a “<a href="https://religiondispatches.org/the-evangelical-abortion-myth-an-excerpt-from-bad-faith/">Catholic issue</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brnow.org/news/How-Southern-Baptists-became-pro-life/">A 1970 poll</a> by the Baptist Sunday School board found that a majority of Southern Baptist pastors supported abortion in a number of instances, including when the woman’s mental or physical health was at risk or in the case of rape or fetal deformity. </p>
<p>The SBC passed its <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-abortion-2/">first resolution on abortion</a> two years before the Roe decision. While the Convention never supported the right of a woman to have an abortion at her request for any reason, the resolution did acknowledge the need for legislation that would allow for some exceptions. </p>
<p>In fact, many Southern Baptists saw the Roe decision as drawing <a href="https://religiondispatches.org/the-evangelical-abortion-myth-an-excerpt-from-bad-faith/">a needed line between church and state</a> on matters of morality and state regulation. A Baptist Press article just days after the decision called it an advancement of religious liberty, human equality and justice.</p>
<p>The Convention <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-abortion-and-sanctity-of-human-life/">affirmed this resolution</a> in 1974 after Roe was decided. A 1976 resolution condemned abortion as “a means of birth control” but still insisted the decision ultimately remained between a woman and her doctor.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-abortion-4/">A 1977 resolution</a> clarified the Convention’s position, reaffirming its “strong opposition to abortion on demand.” However, it also reaffirmed the Convention’s views about the limited role of government and the right of pregnant women to medical services and counseling. This resolution was <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-abortion/">affirmed again</a> in 1979.</p>
<h2>Fetus as a person</h2>
<p>Later that year, however, as an ultra-conservative faction within the denomination acquired power from more moderate leaders, things began to change.</p>
<p>Starting in 1980, Convention resolutions took a hard turn against abortion access. A “<a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-abortion-6/">Resolution on Abortion</a>” declared “that abortion ends the life of a developing human being” and called for legal measures “prohibiting abortion except to save the life of the mother.” </p>
<p>Another interesting shift happened in that resolution. Instead of referring to “fetal life,” as did earlier resolutions, the 1980 resolution called fetuses “unborn” or “pre-born” human life or “persons.” This shift in language made a significant change to the status of the fetus. It was no longer a developing organism dependent on a woman’s body, but rather it was a full human being with the same status and human rights as the women. A <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-abortion-7/">1984 resolution</a> named a fetus “a living individual human being.”</p>
<p>Since then, the Convention has passed 16 more resolutions against abortion, including opposition to abortion pills, “partial-birth abortion” – an anti-choice political phrase rather than a medical term for a later term abortion that involves extraction of the fetus through the birth canal – the inclusion of abortion in federally funded health care and the use of aborted fetal tissue in research.</p>
<h2>Controlling women’s bodies</h2>
<p>The resolutions by the SBC focus on the fetus, but they also illustrate the Convention’s beliefs about gender, particularly how women and their bodies should be subordinate to men.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brick building that says Southern Baptist Convention." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469034/original/file-20220615-18-55n831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The headquarters of the Southern Baptist Convention in Nashville, Tennesse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SouthernBaptistNameChange/3bb00b2e6d994a71940c29d7d3b9d95f/photo?Query=southern%20baptist%20convention&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=425&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo/Mark Humphrey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Starting in 1980, resolutions dropped exceptions for rape, incest or mental trauma for abortion. The only acceptable instance for abortion for Southern Baptists became “<a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-encouraging-laws-regulating-abortion/">the imminent death of the mother</a>.” A <a href="http://christianbiowiki.org/wiki/index.php/Southern_Baptist_Convention">2005 position statement</a> made this clear: “At the moment of conception, a new being enters the universe, a human being, created in God’s image. This human being deserves our protection, whatever the circumstances of conception.”</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-sex-education-and-adolescent-pregnancy/">1986 resolution</a> linked abortion with sinful sexuality. Calling for parents to educate their children about a “Christian understanding” of sexuality as a way to avoid unplanned pregnancies, the resolution also opposed abortion as “unscriptural” and harmful to the mother. A <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-sex-education/">1987 resolution</a> called for teaching abstinence in schools as the “best and only sure way crisis pregnancies” can be prevented.</p>
<p>In 2003, <a href="https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/on-thirty-years-of-roe-v-wade/">a resolution on abortion</a> co-opted the language of the women’s movement to call the Roe v. Wade decision “an act of injustice against innocent unborn children as well as against vulnerable women in crisis pregnancy situations.” The resolution went on to blame the “sexual revolution” and a “lucrative abortion industry” for victimizing women. Instead, it promoted anti-choice legislation as a means “to protect women and children from abortion,” and it offered prayers, love and advocacy for “women and men who have been abused by abortion.” </p>
<p>Resolutions also called for women to be given information about fetal development, and the Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission created “<a href="https://psalm139project.org/">The Psalm 139 Project</a>” to provide ultrasound machines to crisis pregnancy centers so they could show women images of their fetuses to discourage them from abortion.</p>
<p><a href="https://alliancestateadvocates.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/107/Alliance-CPC-Study-Designed-to-Deceive.pdf">Crisis pregnancy centers</a> are primarily evangelical organizations that offer counseling and assistance to convince pregnant people not to have abortions. They often provide <a href="https://msmagazine.com/2022/04/11/roe-v-wade-overturned-crisis-pregnancy-centers/">misleading and false information</a>, and often receive large sums of public money with little public oversight. </p>
<p>The 2003 resolution also called on the government to “take action to protect the lives of women and children.” </p>
<p>Fifty years ago, the Convention’s views of abortion were guided by concerns about government intrusion into a private matter between a woman and her health care provider. Today, the Convention has fully embraced governmental control of a woman’s decisions about reproduction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan M. Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar writes about how the Southern Baptist Convention’s views on abortion changed during the 1980s, when a more conservative wing seized control of the denomination.Susan M. Shaw, Professor of Women, Gender, and Sexuality Studies, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1836112022-05-23T19:58:15Z2022-05-23T19:58:15ZDid Australia just make a move to the left?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464747/original/file-20220523-20-ehigmn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=275%2C11%2C3700%2C1982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political commentators often use the idea of a political spectrum from left to right as shorthand for understanding political ideologies, parties and programs. Derived from the arrangement of the National Assembly in the French Revolution, it has been a remarkably resilient form of political shorthand. </p>
<p>Is it useful is explaining what has happened in the 2022 Australian federal election?</p>
<p>The customary way of considering such matters has been to regard the Liberals and Nationals as parties of the right, and Labor and the Greens as parties of the left. Terms such as centre right and centre left have sometimes been used to provide greater refinement, seen to be necessary especially with the proliferation of xenophobic and extreme parties further to the right in many countries. The term “centre party” has sometimes been used for smaller parties that seem to sit between the others, however uncomfortably – the Australian Democrats was an example. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Gough Whitlam gives a policy speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464721/original/file-20220523-16-cqaysq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in 2022 is only slightly behind Gough Whitlam’s in 1972.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the spectrum does indeed remain a useful concept, an argument can be made that the 2022 election discloses an electoral shift to the left. It is perhaps the most significant since the combined momentum of the elections of 1969 and 1972 that brought the Whitlam government to office.</p>
<p>Changes of government in federal politics don’t happen often. There have been eight since the second world war, and three of those were in a turbulent decade between late 1972 and early 1983. Australian voters are in the habit of returning governments and they tend not to discard an incumbent lightly. When they do, it is reasonable to ask if it signals some wider shift in voter attitudes and leanings.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-wins-with-a-modest-program-but-the-times-may-well-suit-him-182521">Albanese wins with a modest program – but the times may well suit him</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In particular, Australian voters have normally clung tightly to non-Labor governments. Joseph Lyons won three elections before the war as leader of the United Australia Party (no relation to Clive Palmer’s), while Robert Menzies won seven from 1949 for Liberal-Country party coalitions. His successors managed another couple between them, taking their tally to 23 years of continuous rule.</p>
<p>John Howard won four times for almost 12 years, and Malcolm Fraser three for just over seven. The Coalition government that has just been defeated won three elections under three different leaders. All up, since House of Representatives elections became largely a two-way competition between a government and an opposition in 1910, non-Labor has governed for two-thirds of the time and Labor for one-third.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464723/original/file-20220523-21-hp61rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australians have historically clung onto Coalition governments, including John Howard’s which won four elections over almost 12 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Sheargold/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor’s primary vote at this election is on present counting at a historic low of about 32%, but the emphasis placed on this might be producing a misreading of the electoral mood. Once preferences are distributed, the party is currently tracking for a two-party preferred vote of about 52% to the Coalition’s 48%. If maintained, that will be fractionally behind the vote received by Gough Whitlam in 1972 and Kevin Rudd in 2007 (both 52.7%), and just over a point behind Hawke in 1983 (53.2%). </p>
<p>We have used the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/Powers_practice_and_procedure/Practice7/HTML/Chapter3/Method_of_voting">preferential system</a>, known internationally as the Alternative Vote, for House elections since 1918. By the standards of federal elections, in 2022 voters have announced a clear preference for a party regarded as “centre left” or “progressive” over one that is “centre right”, “conservative” or even “liberal”.</p>
<p>The opposition that Australians have been prepared to send into government is led by a man whom few would regard as having the charisma of John Curtin, Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke or Kevin Rudd. Anthony Albanese displays sincerity, integrity and authenticity, which gave him advantages in comparison with a prime minister whose popularity was in decline. But it is unlikely he has inspired the support that these earlier Labor leaders could mobilise on the basis of strength of personal appeal. He may do so in time, but not this time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hes-australias-31st-prime-minister-so-who-is-anthony-albanese-177617">He's Australia's 31st prime minister. So who is Anthony Albanese?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Albanese pursued a small-target strategy, which might lead one to doubt his election signifies much at all. But this is only part of the story. As the campaign developed, Albanese sounded increasingly in tune with values normally understood as in Labor’s DNA. </p>
<p>He stood up to media and Coalition bullying over his support for maintaining the real wages of low-paid workers. He talked of universal provision in childcare, which has a Whitlamite feel to it. He signalled a strong commitment to the Uluru Statement From the Heart. His language was about caring, co-operation and collaboration, of “we” and “us” more than “you” or “me”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Anthony Albanese with supporters the day after the election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464722/original/file-20220523-56160-67tmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anthony Albanese, pictured with dog Toto, will have the most progressive Australian parliament for many years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor took seats from the Coalition – a point that is perhaps being lost in the understandable emphasis on the victories of independents and Greens. The swing to Labor in Western Australia looks like it will be between 10% and 11% – no doubt entangled in the politics of the pandemic, but a radical shift nonetheless in a state where Labor usually struggles.</p>
<p>Labor will win seats from the Coalition in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide. Indeed, the Coalition has been nearly wiped out in all of these cities by a combination of Labor, independents and, in Melbourne, Greens. </p>
<p>Labor’s national swing looks to be about 3.6%. As a result, many of its own seats have become safer while it is now in striking distance of Coalition ones. Aston in Melbourne’s affluent eastern suburbs, held by Alan Tudge and an outer island in a sea of red, teal and green, has moved from safe to marginal. Coalition hopes that it could take Hunter in view of the large swing gained there in 2019 and the supposed strength of pro-coal opinion now look faintly ridiculous.</p>
<p>In Brisbane, the Greens have taken seats – possibly three – from both Labor and the Liberals. This might be considered an unambiguous shift to the left by inner-city electorates in Brisbane, although not one from which Labor has been able to benefit. </p>
<p>It is a major breakthrough for the Greens in the lower house, where they previously had just their leader, Adam Bandt, representing Melbourne. This success will greatly magnify their standing in the new parliament, where the government will often need Greens support in the Senate even if it gets a House of Representatives majority. </p>
<p>Greens success will equally worry Labor strategists concerned about their own inner-city strongholds, just as the party’s larger inability to win seats in regional Queensland will remain of concern. But even here, Labor has managed a two-party preferred swing of over 5% on present counting, which might place some seats in striking distance next time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Greens leader Adam Bandt celebrates on election night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464720/original/file-20220523-14810-mdxord.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Greens made significant inroads against both the Coalition and ALP in Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The rise and rise of the independents has rightly been the story of the election. The central issues of their campaign – climate change, anti-corruption and gender equality – have been turned into the property of “progressives” and “the left” through the ham-fisted efforts of Scott Morrison and the Coalition, support of now questionable value from the Murdoch media, and the place of the environment in the right’s culture wars. </p>
<p>Climate and energy policy, more than any other issue, now defines what it is to be “conservative” and “progressive” in Australia. This is the handiwork of a succession of powerful conservative politicians who saw political advantage in this framing and enjoyed their parties’ relationship with the fossil fuel industry. Tony Abbott, Morrison and Barnaby Joyce have been among the most influential.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-voters-have-elected-their-government-now-the-labor-party-has-to-make-them-believe-they-were-right-183213">Australian voters have elected their government. Now the Labor Party has to make them believe they were right</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>They may now behold their achievement. The Liberal Party is a drastically <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-turns-red-and-teal-as-liberals-are-all-but-vanquished-in-greater-melbourne-183595">depleted</a> and demoralised force. The Coalition might fall apart. The right-wing populist minor parties such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party have performed poorly, with Hanson’s Senate seat in danger – another measure, perhaps, of a general shift to the left. </p>
<p>Australia will have the most progressive parliament for many years. And the Coalition will have some deep soul-searching to do, possibly under a leader – Peter Dutton – who will be a strange but unavoidable choice for a party that needs both to soften its image and change its substance to have any hope of avoiding many years in the wilderness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span> Frank Bongiorno is a member of Kim For Canberra (Senate election) and has donated to Climate 200.</span></em></p>Yes, Labor has won office with an historically low first preference vote- but focussing on this might be misreading the electoral mood.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1737062022-01-20T18:09:08Z2022-01-20T18:09:08ZJair Bolsonaro’s administration is hurting the lives of LGBTQ+ sex workers in Brazil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441806/original/file-20220120-9530-1e4kucc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C5439%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro gives a press conference in January 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Marcelo Chello) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brazil has achieved accomplishments related to the rights and visibility of marginalized communities in the last two decades — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0169796X20963332">from social innovations to educational change</a>. However, LGBTQ+ sex workers of all genders are <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/brazil-sex-work-lgbtq-jair-bolsonaro-857050/">facing stigmatization and discrimination</a>. </p>
<p>A major cause for this is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/21/if-i-dont-have-sex-ill-die-of-hunger-covid-19-crisis-for-rios-trans-sex-workers">Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s far-right president</a>. When he was elected in 2018, the violence against LGBTQ+ sex workers began to be state endorsed, making it much harder for sex workers to do their jobs. </p>
<p>This discrimination is furthered because Brazil is a <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/brazils-conservative-revolution/">predominantly conservative society</a> with a fast-growing <a href="https://rpl.hds.harvard.edu/faq/pentecostalism-brazil">fundamentalist Pentecostal population</a>. </p>
<p>According to Brazilian anthropologist and professor at Universidade Federal da Bahia, Luiz Mott, every 26 minutes an <a href="https://clubedeautores.com.br/livro/mortes-violentas-de-lgbt-no-brasil">LGBTQ+ person was murdered or took their own life</a>, in 2020. Brazil is dangerous <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaabierta/violencia-anti-lgbtq-brasil-en">for LGBTQ+ people</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro has said some heinous things about LGBTQ+ people and sex workers. He publicly declared (translated from Portuguese) “<a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/cotidian/ff1905200210.htm">I’m not going to fight or discriminate, but if I spot two men kissing in the street, I’ll beat them up</a>,” and that “<a href="https://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/bolsonaro-em-25-frases-polemicas/">90 per cent of adopted boys are going to be gay and will be sex workers for the couple</a>.” He said in a TV interview on <em>Participação Popular</em> “<a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/cotidian/ff2611201025.htm">[If] the kid begins to look gay-ish, you just beat him up really bad and this will fix him. Right?</a>” </p>
<p>Recently my research has led me to look into the shift occurring at venues where male sex workers, specifically men who have sex with men, labour in Rio de Janeiro and Recife. Rio de Janeiro is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2011/jul/11/rio-de-janeiro-gay-tourism">an international hub for gay tourism</a> and Bolsonaro’s voting home base. While Recife is becoming one of the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3150541/">major cities in the northeast for domestic gay tourism</a>, it is one of the cities with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/setback-for-bolsonaro-after-poor-results-in-brazil-local-elections">the largest number of anti-Bolsonaro votes</a>.</p>
<h2>Sex work in Brazil</h2>
<p>Sex work and soliciting sex are not criminalized in Brazil, but sex work in general is not regulated. The regulation has been sitting in the National Congress, waiting to be voted on since 2012. It comes in the form of <a href="https://journals.tulane.edu/ncs/article/view/1120">Bill 4211/2012, also called “<em>Projeto de lei Gabriela Leite</em>,”</a> and has been facing fierce resistance from conservative lobbyists in the house.</p>
<p>The debate about sex work regulation was sanctioned by the social demand for public policies during the governments of <a href="https://pt.org.br/mulheres-trabalhadoras-no-brasil-da-pandemia/">Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva</a>. Feminist and LGBTQ+ movements pushed this debate but were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/world/americas/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-election.html">repressed with the election of Bolsonaro</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="LGBTQ in Brazil under Bolsonaro's administration" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C952%2C957&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437320/original/file-20211213-10093-6vtgga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wallace Louzada Hansen (pictured) is a sex worker and friend of the author, he has been negatively impacted by Bolsonaro’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Wallace Louzada Hansen)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The reality for sex workers in Brazil is grim. Through my research I’ve interviewed and met many male sex workers. One of the men I interviewed through previous research told me <a href="https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/7930">it was better to be undocumented, face racism and social invisibility in Canada than to be a sex worker in Rio de Janeiro</a>. </p>
<p>He explained that he left Brazil because he was exposed to sexual, physical and psychological violence at work. When I asked if he ever tried going to the police he replied “because the police are also the ones who could rape me at raids. So, I wanted nothing from them.”</p>
<p>Until Bolsonaro’s election win, sex workers had been gaining rights. His ultra-far-right, homophobic, racist and mysogynistic views have made the reality much worse. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.huckmag.com/perspectives/reportage-2/in-bolsonaros-brazil-sex-workers-are-in-serious-danger/">an interview with <em>Huck Magazine</em></a>, anthropologist Thaddeus Blanchette says brothels were on the decline before Bolsonaro came into power, but now they’re opening back up. Blanchette says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“What that means is this whole structure of negotiations with the police, with the law and with judges has to be renegotiated. And of course, in this process the workers have no rights whatsoever. Instead, these brothels are a major income generator for Rio’s police and militia gangs.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Bolsonaro’s necropolitical agenda targeting LGBTQ+ people, sex workers and other marginalized people together <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12528">with the COVID-19 pandemic has been disastrous</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A half torso mannequin decorated with an orange veil hangs from a beam backdropped by donated items, a stove and fridge. The room is covered in grafitti." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440319/original/file-20220111-21166-7bkcgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The squat known as Casa Nem is occupied by members of the LGBTQ+ community who are in self-quarantine as a protective measure against COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2022, I will conduct research that I am sure will reveal a country devastated by the pandemic, with LGBTQ+ people facing social persecution. While the results will no doubt be painful, the research will be conducted during a crucial moment for Brazil.</p>
<p>This year, the country completes 200 years of independence and, more importantly, will have a federal election — <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-retains-solid-lead-over-bolsonaro-2022-brazil-race-poll-shows-2021-09-17/">former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads all polls</a>. </p>
<p>The conservative reaction to the possible return of a socialist and LGBTQ+ friendly government is unpredictable and since male sex workers are not well organized — <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/beyond-trafficking-and-slavery/power-of-putas-brazilian-prostitutes-movement-in-time/">unlike their female peers</a> — their vulnerability is a major concern. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s leadership has had detrimental impact on the LGBTQ+ community. I’m hopeful that a new government will be elected and the country will be able to get back on track when it comes to regulating sex work, implementing protective bills and improving the lives for sex workers across the country. Because sex work is work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alberto C. B. de Souza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Until Bolsonaro’s election win, sex workers had been gaining rights. His ultra-far-right, homophobic, racist and mysoginistic views have made the reality much worse.Alberto C. B. de Souza, PhD Candidate in Anthropology, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1641122021-07-12T16:59:31Z2021-07-12T16:59:31ZWhy some people switch political parties: new research<p>Why do some people switch political parties? After all, if someone is committed enough to a particular vision of politics, wouldn’t they be relatively immune to the charms of its competitors?</p>
<p>It turns out, however, that switching parties at grassroots membership level is by no means uncommon, even giving rise in some quarters to accusations of “entryism”. </p>
<p>The massive increase in Labour’s membership which accompanied Jeremy Corbyn’s elevation to the leadership in 2015 was often <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37039222">anecdotally associated</a>, at least in the minds of his enemies (internal as well as external), with an influx of people who had previously belonged to parties on the far left fringe of the country’s politics. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Conservatives’ adoption of an ever harder position on Brexit was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/30/grieve-accuses-ex-ukip-opponent-of-insurgency-after-confidence-vote-loss">blamed by some</a> not just on Theresa May’s desire to keep Tory Eurosceptics on board, but on pressure put on more moderate MPs by former members of the Eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP) joining and even taking over their local associations.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2021.1941062">Our new research</a> sheds light on the truth of party-switching politics – how many people really switch, why people are motivated to do so, and whether the claims of entryism are credible.</p>
<h2>Patterns of party-switching</h2>
<p>We surveyed nearly 7,000 members of British political parties (including registered Brexit Party supporters) within two weeks of the 2019 general election. When we analysed the data, we found a remarkably high proportion of our sample (23%) claimed to have previously been – or, if we allow for registered Brexit Party supporters as well, currently were – members of a different political party than the one to which they were now affiliated. </p>
<p>Some 29% of Tory members who admitted in 2019 to having been members of other parties claim to have been UKIP members. Interestingly, though, virtually as many were former Labour members. As a proportion of all Conservative Party grassroots members, these figures amount to 3% who were former members of UKIP, 4.5% who were simultaneously Brexit Party supporters, and 4% who were ex-Labour members. </p>
<p>This puts into perspective the scale of the entryist phenomenon. At most, 7.5% of all Tory members in 2019 had a history of connections with UKIP or the Brexit Party (probably fewer, given the likely overlap of UKIP and Brexit Party connections). </p>
<p>This is not to say that their impact may not have been significant in certain constituencies when it came to selecting party candidates, nor is it to deny that the Conservative Party grassroots have increasingly come to favour “hard” forms of Brexit over the course of the past few years. But it would appear that, in the vast majority of cases, this will have been down to the changing views of members who had no formal associations with UKIP or the Brexit Party.</p>
<p>As for Labour’s members, two-fifths of those with previous party memberships joined the party after 2015 – surely the Corbyn effect? Those Labour members who had past lives in other organisations came mainly from the Greens or Liberal Democrats – or, intriguingly, from an amorphous “other parties” category, with the latter maybe hinting (but only hinting) at a degree (albeit limited) of entryism from the far left.</p>
<p>It is worth bearing in mind that the smaller parties have generally experienced even higher levels of cross-party flows, proportionately speaking. For instance, three-fifths of Green members were former Labour members, as were around half of SNP and Liberal Democrat members.</p>
<h2>Why switch?</h2>
<p>But what drives some people to quit one party and join another? <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Footsoldiers-Political-Party-Membership-in-the-21st-Century/Bale-Webb-Poletti/p/book/9781138302464">Our research</a> suggests that the most telling reasons are connected with ideology and party leaders. If people feel themselves to be in tune with particular a party in terms of its core values and leader, they are naturally attracted to join it. However, they are equally inclined to eventually quit the same party if they feel it or its leadership has changed tack and become more remote.</p>
<p>In particular, we discovered that ideological radicals are especially prone to switching parties. The same goes for Brexiteers -– although this is perhaps a time-sensitive finding relevant to the past few years, given the special power of Brexit to cut across longstanding <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/brexitland/667A60CB4C315A755792074E79B20FBA">patterns of partisan alignment</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the traditional breadth of the major parties in Britain partly reflects the nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system, which makes it hard for minor parties to gain parliamentary representation unless – like the Scottish and Welsh nationalists or, more unusually, the Greens in Brighton – they have geographical concentrations of support.</p>
<p>As a result, both Labour and the Conservatives are coalitions of quite diverse types of people. We should not be surprised, then, that their grassroots members often find themselves at odds with their parties’ policies – particularly when there is a change of direction brought about by a change of leadership.</p>
<p>A new leader intent on charting a different course from their predecessor – Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson are both obvious examples – can try to keep as many of their existing members on board as possible. But, ultimately, it may be better for all concerned – and a sign of healthy, pluralist democracy – if those who come to believe another party might represent a better fit for them depart so they can try it for size. </p>
<p>And nowadays, of course, with the emergence of parties that either weren’t around at all (such as populist radical right outfits like UKIP, the Brexit Party and Reform UK) or were less powerful than they are now (like the SNP), there are more alternatives on offer than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Webb has received ESRC funding for this research.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Bale receives funding from the ESRC and the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>Switching political parties is fairly common in Britain. But does that mean parties are being shaped by entryism?Paul Webb, Professor of Politics, University of SussexTim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1623682021-06-08T15:50:10Z2021-06-08T15:50:10ZLabour are much better at running the economy than voters think – new research<p>Since the 1920s, the Conservative and Labour parties have dominated the political landscape in the United Kingdom. Their governments tend to be strong, since the country’s first-past-the-post electoral system helps to produce parliamentary majorities which enable the ruling party to implement its policies. Yet surprisingly, after a century of the two parties vying for power, there is a little academic research into which has been better for the UK economy.</p>
<p>This is even more perplexing given that the economic performance of each party is a key factor in UK voters’ political decision-making. Undeterred by the lack of research, however, they have <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/best-party-key-issues-managing-economy">long since</a> reached a conclusion: the Conservatives enjoy a clear political advantage as the party expected to manage the economy better. Even a <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/11/30/analysis-four-million-labour-voters-lack-trust">sizeable percentage</a> of Labour voters have agreed at times. </p>
<p>This could possibly explain why the Conservatives have won the most general elections in the past century: 15 wins to Labour’s eight since 1922, plus four hung parliaments, with the Conservatives the largest party in three of them. </p>
<p>But are the voters right in thinking that the Conservatives are the most reliable party for economic performance? We have <a href="https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/15231">just published research</a> into this that analyses the GDP growth achievements of the two parties. The results are not what you might expect. </p>
<h2>The basic results</h2>
<p>Over the past century of governments, the Conservatives achieved slightly higher mean growth per quarter (0.62% vs 0.56%), Labour achieved a slightly higher median (0.62% versus 0.58%). In other words, when you add together all the quarterly growth numbers of both parties and divide them by the number of quarters in question, the Conservatives come out on top. But when you take the middle number of each parties’ quarterly growth figures, Labour comes out on top. Incidentally, this analysis does not include the impact of COVID on the economy – including that makes Labour’s performance look better. </p>
<p>These differences are not statistically significant, but the discrepancy between mean and median hints at the presence of outliers of particularly strong or weak quarters in the data that are skewing the mean averages. In fact, Labour have achieved a higher concentration of quarters of positive growth than the Conservatives. Indeed, despite the 2008-09 recession taking place on Labour’s watch, the party has only overseen seven quarters of recession in the past 100 years compared to 17 under the Conservatives. </p>
<p>If we disregard the global financial crisis as an external shock, Labour has presided over just two recession quarters since 1955, and has produced average annualised growth of 2.66%. If we similarly disregard the three quarters following the 1973 oil shock that took place under the Conservative administration of Ted Heath, his party has presided over 14 recession quarters and 2.65% of average annualised growth. You can also see the performance of specific governments since 1955, as shown by the average annualised growth numbers, in the graph below. </p>
<p><strong>Growth by administration since 1955</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing growth per government since 1955, described above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405079/original/file-20210608-144898-635q6w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/15231">Algarhi/Tziamalis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Improving the analysis</h2>
<p>So far, our findings have shown that there is no statistically significant difference in the GDP achievements of the two main parties (COVID aside), and that Labour is the more consistent performer. But those who follow politics will be well used to politicians saying, “We inherited a bad situation from the previous government”. What if the performance of a newly elected government is affected by the ongoing policies of the previous administration? </p>
<p>To assess whether the economic performance of either party improves as a newly elected government is given time to implement its policies, we incorporated time-lags into our analysis. The graph below shows the difference in growth rates between the parties when you apply a time lag to their performance – for example, the bars under lag 1 show average growth across a party’s period in office if you reallocate its first quarter to the previous party in office. </p>
<p><strong>Average GDP growth over lagged quarters</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing growth per party with a time lag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405084/original/file-20210608-121132-argyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Partisan gap = the gap between the Conservative and Labour growth figures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/15231">Algarhi/Tziamalis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What this shows is that the already statistically insignificant gap in real GDP growth between the Conservatives and Labour tends to close even further if you reallocate up to six quarters of growth figures. If you allow seven or eight quarters, however, the gap seems to widen in favour of the Conservatives. But when we ran some econometric modelling to see whether this was statistically significant, we concluded that it was not: there was no clear winner between the two parties.</p>
<p>To add an additional layer of sophistication, we then resorted to a technique that implicitly acknowledges that new government’s affect on the economy from their first day in office, often through sentiment rather than new legislation. For example, if people think a new government will do a better job with the economy, they might save less and spend more. </p>
<p>But since new policies may well take months or years to yield results, there is a limit to how much sentiment can affect economic performance. To simulate this gradual shift, we used an “annual thirds method”, where the new government is economically responsible for just one-third of growth in year 1, two-thirds in year 2 and then assumes full responsibility only from year 3. Using this analysis, the annualised growth rates for the two parties stayed almost the same as before, and was still statistically insignificant.</p>
<p>In short, the economy grows at a very similar pace under Labour and the Conservatives, but Labour governments seem to do better at tackling recessions and achieve a more consistent performance. And if we discount the global financial crisis of 2007-09, Labour’s (slight) superiority becomes more pronounced. It should be food for thought for UK voters next time they are trying to decide where to put their cross.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162368/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We looked at 100 years of Tory and Labour governments to see who was better at producing GDP.Alexander Tziamalis, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Sheffield Hallam UniversityAmr Algarhi, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1523782021-01-05T18:11:46Z2021-01-05T18:11:46ZThe legitimacy of the US Supreme Court put to the test of its conservatism<p>The outcome of the 2020 US presidential election is no longer in doubt: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won, taking <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/dec/08/us-election-results-2020-joe-biden-defeats-donald-trump-to-win-presidency">306 Electoral College votes</a>, well above the 270-vote threshold – ironically, the same number that Donald Trump himself received in 2016 when he beat Hillary Clinton. The Electoral College <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-270-electoral-college-vote-d429ef97af2bf574d16463384dc7cc1e">confirmed Biden’s victory</a> on December 14, and he will be inaugurated on January 20 at noon.</p>
<p>For the Democratic Party and its supporters, however, the much-hoped-for “blue wave” did not materialize. No matter how the last votes are to be counted (and recounted), the 2020 election was not an anti-Republican referendum. Indeed, this reality may be decisive in how the conservative majority on the Supreme Court chooses to decide contentious election litigation and establish its legitimacy as an objective judiciary, independent of the partisan agenda of any politician.</p>
<h2>Conservative isn’t a synonym for corrupt</h2>
<p>Just a little over a week before Election Day, in a <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=116&session=2&vote=00222">51-48 split</a>, the Senate voted to confirm Amy Coney Barret’s nomination to the Supreme Court, replacing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg just five weeks after her death. Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments, all during his single presidential term, are not exceptional, though <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/SupremeCourtNominations1789present.htm">no president has done so</a> since Ronald Reagan (and Richard Nixon before him), but they raise questions concerning the court’s supposed apolitical nature.</p>
<p>The conservative dominance of the Supreme Court is no longer an opinion, but rather confirmed fact. Since the emergence of the Federalist Society (<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/08/27/federalist-society-yale-history-conservative-law-court-219608">started as a conservative student group at Yale</a>) in 1982, conservative lawyers, legal scholars, and politicians have worked quietly and diligently to establish a network capable of influencing the American legal system. The cementing of the court’s conservative majority is less a short-order coup d'état than it is the long-anticipated maturing of organizational and institutional investments made over the past half century.</p>
<p>One nuance that many of the calls for expanding the court and eliminating lifetime tenure for justices fail to acknowledge is that a conservative court does not necessarily equate to a corrupt court. Unlike in the Executive and Legislative branches of government, in the Judiciary, political ideology (<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/section-1-growing-ideological-consistency/">which has not always been the inerrant indicator of party identification that it is today</a>) works differently. Partisanship, for elected officials is a powerful and oftentimes useful tool.</p>
<p>Still, the strongest indicator of vote choice, partisanship gets politicians in office and keeps them there. In the electoral process, political party platforms help voters to translate their values, convictions, and preferences into articulate policy positions, which are then pursued by politicians wishing to remain in office. Representing constituents’ (often partisan) policy preferences in office is an essential part of the job. In the Judiciary, however, the American common law legal tradition offers no formal structural role for political parties. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/secret-code-senate-confirmation-hearings/616704/">As Amy Coney Barret has reiterated throughout her confirmation hearing</a>, stare decisis means that Justices are bound by precedent in their rulings. A conservative court does not mean a Republican court, the influence of ideology in the courtroom is different, by design, to its influence in Congress or the presidency.</p>
<h2>The role of ideology on the court</h2>
<p>Even if a conservative majority on the court does not mean the same thing as it would in the House or Senate, ideology certainly plays a role in the way Justices are scrutinized during their confirmation hearings, choose which cases to hear, and ultimately apply precedent to decide those cases.</p>
<p>The words of Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) during Barret’s initial confirmation hearing to the Seventh District Court of Appeals, saying <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mDQM1TzlAM">“the dogma lives loudly in you”</a>, referring to Barret’s strong Catholic faith as a potential ideological disqualification, were widely criticized as out of bounds and inappropriate. While Barret’s Catholic faith and orthodox position on abortion should not disqualify her to sit on the bench, under the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/interpretation/article-vi/clauses/32">No Religious Test clause</a> (Article VI) of the Constitution, many note its seeming discordance with American public opinion as <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/03/about-seven-in-ten-americans-oppose-overturning-roe-v-wade/">a majority of Americans do not wish to see Roe v. Wade</a> overturned.</p>
<p>Since judges are so strongly tied to precedent, the most ostensible manifestations of ideology are the legal philosophies that can be articulated through the judicial framework. The judicial activism versus restraint dichotomy that fuels much current debate over the way Justices view their role on the bench and are identified ideologically, have not always been liberal or conservative-owned positions. In an article in the <em>Texas Law Review</em>, Jack M. Balkin <a href="https://texaslawreview.org/why-liberals-and-conservatives-flipped-on-judicial-restraint-judicial-review-in-the-cycles-of-constitutional-time/">notes</a> that liberals and conservatives switched positions on judicial restraint and the role of the federal courts twice in the 20th century alone. If history, then, is a useful tool for understanding future trends, what may be conservative legal philosophy today may not be tomorrow.</p>
<p>Additionally, justices’ ideology does not remain fixed over time, rather it tends to evolve as they “grow” in office – <a href="https://www.flother.is/2016/supreme-court-ideology/">the trend actually being toward the left</a> (as Justices Kennedy and now Roberts have shown). While a long-term liberalizing trend perhaps brings little comfort to those who rightly note that Trump’s midnight appointments are unlikely to follow in Roberts’ moderate “third way”, hope may be found in the court’s need for legitimacy.</p>
<h2>A never-ending need for legitimacy</h2>
<p>Hamilton writes in <em>Federalist 78</em> of <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed78.asp">“the natural feebleness of the judiciary”</a>, in its constant jeopardy of being overpowered by the other branches. The court’s democratic deficit is both its greatest asset and gravest weakness: in order to have liberty, a nation must have a Judiciary independent of the constant evaluations of voters. Unlike the president or members of Congress, the judiciary must be free from the yoke of democratic accountability, otherwise judges would likely act as legislators representing the will of the voters (in hopes of retaining their office). Paradoxically, it is this very protection that becomes a liability, John Marshall was well aware of this in <em>Marbury v. Madison</em>: give into one’s partisan temptations (pushing through Federalist judges) and risk losing all legitimacy (when the President chooses not to heed the court’s rulings). </p>
<p>The same can be said of the court’s relationship to public opinion and <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-supreme-court-and-the-climate-of-the-era">was expertly articulated</a> by 20th century constitutional law scholar Paul Freund:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[The court] should never be influenced by the weather of the day but inevitably they will be influenced by the climate of the era.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>While justices are provided a shelter from the hailstorm of public opinion, total disregard (particularly on a suspected partisan basis) for the other branches of government and public opinion would threaten the lifeblood of the court, its legitimacy. The president might attempt to pack the court, as FDR threatened in the <a href="https://time.com/5702280/court-packing-history/">Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937</a>, and the public might decide to ignore Supreme Court rulings.</p>
<p>Despite Trump’s clear desire for the Supreme Court to tip the election in his favor (aided in large part by his newest appointee), Biden’s lead was large enough that it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/fact-check-us-could-the-supreme-court-still-save-donald-trump-150554">highly unlikely that the Court will decide the race as it did in 2000</a>. Whatever Trump’s future after leaving the White House, the new conservative majority will decide in the coming years not only which votes will be counted, but its future as a legitimate, independent, third branch of government. Rightly or wrongly, Trump’s success in securing a third appointment in four short years means that all eyes will be on the new conservative court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The US Supreme Court now clearly leans towards the Conservatives, but it has not become a political tool in the hands of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.Blandine Chelini-Pont, Professeur des Universités en histoire contemporaine, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Robin D. Presthus, Enseignant au Moravian College de Pennsylvanie, doctorant au Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire De Droit et Mutations Sociales, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1476412020-10-13T13:27:49Z2020-10-13T13:27:49ZPolitical leaders’ views on COVID-19 risk are highly infectious in a polarized nation – we see the same with climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362758/original/file-20201009-13-bgeb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C163%2C4197%2C2517&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Trump's messages discounting mask-wearing have worried public health professionals.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakTrump/92c626dbeab34360af0d905c39064346">AP Photos/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When President Donald Trump announced he was leaving the hospital after being treated for COVID-19, he sent his supporters a <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070">message</a>: “Don’t be afraid of COVID. Don’t let it dominate your life,” he tweeted. A few hours later at the White House, he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-walter-reed-discharge-mask/2020/10/05/91edbe9a-071a-11eb-859b-f9c27abe638d_story.html">pulled off his mask</a> in dramatic fashion for the cameras and stuffed it in his pocket.</p>
<p>That message on Oct. 5 and his subsequent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/trump-rally-florida.html">words and actions</a> – including telling supporters at a Florida campaign rally on Oct. 12, “if you want to get out there, get out there,” and that he and wanted to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-rally-covid-florida-biden/2020/10/12/00c10916-0c99-11eb-8a35-237ef1eb2ef7_story.html">kiss everyone</a> in the tightly packed audience – flew in the face of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-fauci/as-trump-holds-rally-fauci-urges-masks-avoiding-mass-gatherings-idUSKBN26X2K4">health professionals’ warnings</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">Over 215,000 people have died</a> from COVID-19 in the U.S., and the country faces a high <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-covid-19-cases-rise-again-how-will-the-us-respond-heres-what-states-have-learned-so-far-146288">risk of a surge</a> in cases this fall. Wearing face masks and social distancing <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-face-mask-protection-vaccine-cdc-director/">can help stop the virus’s spread</a>.</p>
<p>Coming from a political leader, Trump’s words and behaviors downplaying the risks are potent. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Hw_l57UAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> as a professor who studies risk perception shows that in a highly polarized environment, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113235">political leaders’ rhetoric can play a significant role</a> in shaping risk perceptions among their loyal followers. </p>
<p>If the leader deems the risk to be small, his or her supporters will be more likely to share that view. If the leader does not strictly follow rules on wearing masks and social distancing, the supporters are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/13/trump-rally-supporters-covid-19-sots-tuchman-ac360-vpx.cnn">more than likely to follow suit</a>. </p>
<p>This pattern has been confirmed in recent months by evidence that U.S. counties with more Trump voters see fewer people <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27008">social distancing</a>. It also echoes what I and other researchers have found with the politicization of climate change. </p>
<h2>Echoes of climate change</h2>
<p>Climate change is another area where politics can influence the perception of risk and how to respond to it. Two decades of social science research has tracked <a href="http://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2016.1208995">the politicization</a> of the issue. </p>
<p>While most Democrats and liberals recognize the <a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/based-on-science/climate-change-humans-are-causing-global-warming">human role</a> in climate change and the <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">harms</a> it is causing, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2016.1223190">many Republicans and conservatives say</a> they are not so sure. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1525/sp.2003.50.3.348">The conservative movement</a>, alongside the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f">oil industry</a>, helped to make climate change into a politically contentious issue.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Audience view of Trump's Sanford, Florida, rally on Oct. 12, 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363112/original/file-20201013-21-1xxgb5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People were packed in close together for Trump’s Florida rally on Oct. 12, 2020. Many went without face masks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election%202020%20Trump/3929ed8c806b40fb80bbcb3dd92008ae">AP Photos/John Raoux</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. has seen a rise in <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/12/the-decade-we-finally-woke-up-to-climate-change/">extreme weather events</a> in recent years, and more Americans have experienced the impact of climate change firsthand. Some observers believe this increase in personal experiences can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/12/07/can-2018s-extreme-weather-persuade-skeptics-that-the-climate-is-changing/">move the needle in American public opinion</a>. </p>
<p>But the strong countervailing force from Trump tends to offset those effects. The more Republicans and conservatives approve of the president, the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02594-4">lower their perceptions of climate change risk</a> are as the president continues to deny the evidence.</p>
<h2>Filling a void with conspiracy theories</h2>
<p>A parallel seems to dominate the public conversation around COVID-19 today. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus">Although great amounts of scientific effort</a> have been dedicated to understanding various aspects of COVID-19, a lot remains unknown as this pandemic continues to evolve. </p>
<p>The virus causing COVID-19 is new and widely believed to have <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-deforestation-helps-deadly-viruses-jump-from-animals-to-humans-139645">started in bats and jumped to humans</a>. With the early lack of knowledge, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113356">various conspiracy theories</a> were disseminated, and belief in these conspiracies still hinders mask-wearing and other behaviors that can prevent the spread of the disease. </p>
<p>Personal experiences, which the public often relies on to form judgments about risks, were largely absent at this initial stage of the pandemic. Confronted with such uncertainties, the public had to turn to authorities for information and assurance. </p>
<p>Republican and Democratic leaders sent drastically different messages from the beginning, and loyal partisans fell in line.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Texas' Republican Gov. Greg Abbott" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362755/original/file-20201009-13-13mml0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who initially blocked cities from enforcing mask orders, changed his messaging after COVID-19 cases spiked in his state. Many residents had shunned mask-wearing before he shifted to promoting and then requiring it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GregAbbott/01c756fff5684dd389af595c6daa0f26/photo">AP Photo/Tony Guitierrez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Surveys consistently show <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/25/republicans-democrats-move-even-further-apart-in-coronavirus-concerns/">conspicuous gaps between Republicans and Democrats</a>. Republicans <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/22/republicans-remain-far-less-likely-than-democrats-to-view-covid-19-as-a-major-threat-to-public-health/">perceive lower risks of COVID-19</a> than Democrats and say they engage in <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-and-democrats-see-covid-19-very-differently-is-that-making-people-sick/">social distancing behaviors to a lesser extent</a> than Democrats. </p>
<p>Moreover, conservatives who have more confidence in the current national political leadership are even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113235">less likely to perceive threats of COVID-19</a> than conservatives who have less confidence. In other words, the politicization process can even be amplified within one political camp. </p>
<h2>Hope for shrinking the power of misinformation</h2>
<p>The success of slowing the spread of COVID-19 hinges largely on people taking precautions, particularly <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-face-mask-protection-vaccine-cdc-director/">wearing face masks</a> and social distancing, until a safe and effective vaccine is widely available. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>One study on attitudes toward climate change offers some hope. It found that a large number of Republicans and conservatives actually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0719-y">hold more unstable views about climate change over time</a>. This instability may mean they could be more open to listening to the evidence and changing their minds. </p>
<p>If this is also the case with COVID-19, strategic science communications and community engagement activities may be able to make a difference and stop the rising death toll.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147641/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wanyun Shao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research and a recent campaign rally show how political leaders’ rhetoric can shape risk perceptions among their loyal followers.Wanyun Shao, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of AlabamaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1273702019-12-04T16:04:01Z2019-12-04T16:04:01ZUK election 2019: how the main parties compare on immigration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304914/original/file-20191203-67011-pllmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2995%2C1684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-march-14-2017-air-609397571?src=e0a22f19-850a-43d7-9054-b1a070e41ace-1-15">shutterstock/1000 Words</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Britain is heading to the polls for the fourth time in four years. Immigration dominated much of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-31422193">2015 general election</a> and was at the <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Public-Opinion-2019-report.pdf">heart of the referendum debate</a>. With the manifestos out, it’s time to reflect on what the parties propose on immigration. </p>
<p>In essence, <a href="https://vote.conservatives.com/our-plan">the Conservatives</a> want to “fix” the system they’ve been running for the past nine years but are vague about how that might look. <a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/">Labour</a> has again struggled to reconcile its two halves. But where Labour fails to be radical on immigration, the <a href="https://www.libdems.org.uk/plan">Liberal Democrats</a> have stepped up – though perhaps the luxury of knowing you won’t take charge at Number 10 always lends to creative if fanciful thinking.</p>
<p>Public concern about immigration may have dominated party debates, but the tide is shifting. The public are more open to immigration, and <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-is-public-opinion-changing/">it is less important as a voting issue</a>. With that, both the Lib Dems and Labour show that advocating for migrant rights is no longer political suicide. But those seeking clarity on immigration from the main parties before voting will be left wanting. </p>
<h2>Conservatives: a points based system</h2>
<p>The government of the day’s manifesto, headlined with “<a href="https://vote.conservatives.com/our-plan">getting Brexit done</a>”, sets out its intention to end free movement and, with that, to have “fewer low-skilled migrants”. Plans to establish a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/766465/The-UKs-future-skills-based-immigration-system-print-ready.pdf">temporary youth mobility scheme for EU nationals</a> seem to have been abandoned. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-happened-to-uk-migration-since-the-eu-referendum-in-four-graphs-127891">The net migration target</a> would also be officially abandoned, replaced with the rather vague: “overall numbers will come down”. There’s no mention of scrapping the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hostile-environment-the-uk-governments-draconian-immigration-policy-explained-95460">hostile environment</a>, so that would presumably continue despite <a href="https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/LLN-2018-0064">criticism</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives pledge a “fair and firm” system and would introduce a fast-track NHS visa for those with job offers, while also increasing <a href="https://fullfact.org/election-2019/nhs-surcharge-tax-contributions/">NHS surcharges</a> for immigrants. Technology and science gradates who “win top scientific prizes” would also be offered fast track entry to the UK. The proposal of introducing a “start-up visa” is also touted.</p>
<p>But the pillar of the plan is the coveted if obscure “<a href="https://theconversation.com/immigration-after-brexit-what-are-the-alternatives-to-a-points-based-system-65067">points-based system</a>” (PBS). Inspired by Australia’s approach, this would be a way of selecting who is able to come to the UK based on various characteristics – such as their educational qualifications, language proficiency, work experience and occupation.</p>
<p>This manifesto offers no clarity on how the new PBS would work. All that is promised is that migrants would have a “good grasp of English”, be law-abiding and have “good education and qualifications”, but no details on what standard those would be assessed at. Would different attributes receive points in a flexible way? Would a job offer be the prerequisite before all other attributes? Would this job offer need to be at a particular salary? The vagueness here makes the Lib Dems and Labour’s plans look positively meticulous. </p>
<h2>Labour: tackle the labour market</h2>
<p>Immigration is an issue <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783319646916">Labour struggles to “win”</a> as it somewhat splits its voters -– between the cosmopolitan internationalists at ease with diversity and the protectionists wanting less immigration. This division has been palpable in Labour’s ambiguous stance on Brexit until recently.</p>
<p>Party members voted at conference this year to move to a much more open borders policy, pledging to “<a href="https://labourlist.org/2019/09/labour-conference-approves-motion-to-extend-free-movement/">maintain and extend free movement rights</a>”. But that has disappeared from this manifesto. </p>
<p>Instead, Labour says it would negotiate a new Brexit deal and free movement will be “<a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/tackle-poverty-and-inequality/">subject to negotiation</a>” – although it would also seek to “protect those rights”. But if the right to move and work in another state is being negotiated then it’s surely not being protected. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=222&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=222&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=222&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304912/original/file-20191203-66990-17g018v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The main parties all have radically different approaches to handling the number of people that move to the UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-happened-to-uk-migration-since-the-eu-referendum-in-four-graphs-127891">What's happened to UK migration since the EU referendum – in four graphs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But under a Labour government EU nationals would be granted voting rights and the current settlement scheme would be replaced with a <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/09/long-read-eu-settlement-scheme-needs-to-be-a-declaratory-registration-system/">non-mandatory declaratory scheme</a>. In this scheme EU nationals would automatically be granted the right to continue living and working in the UK and would voluntarily register to gain proof of their status. </p>
<p>At the heart of Labour’s immigration offering is enhancing the rights of migrants. Ending the hostile environment, indefinite detention and minimum income thresholds for spouses are all positive measures. But the Liberal Democrats have made bolder promises here. </p>
<p>Like the previous <a href="https://action.labour.org.uk/page/-/A4%20BIG%20_PRINT_ENG_LABOUR%20MANIFESTO_TEXT%20LAYOUT.pdf">two manifestos</a>, the emphasis on tackling unscrupulous employers, exploitation and undercutting is all here. But there’s curiously less detail. Strengthening labour standards enforcement, such as the <a href="https://www.gla.gov.uk">The Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority</a>, which investigates all aspects of labour exploitation in England and Wales, is absent for instance. </p>
<p>While there’s little substance in the immigration chapter, clues can be found in Labour’s work proposals. The thread of this manifesto lies in “the biggest extension of workers rights in history” and radical changes to the labour market. The manifesto proposes to push for a higher living wage, ban overseas-only recruitment, scrap the gig economy and bring collective bargaining to the fore. The implication is a decrease in labour market flexibility, in turn reducing the demand for migrant labour. So while the plans for immigration appear to lack ambition, significant change would come about as a result of radical proposals for the wider economy. </p>
<h2>Liberal Democrats: away from the Home Office</h2>
<p>The Lib Dems have a much clearer and simpler plan on the free movement conundrum – simply to revoke Article 50. </p>
<p>There’s a lot of consistency with Labour here on migrant rights. But the Lib Dems go further on their humanitarian commitments than Labour, and would bring in a 28-day limit on immigration detention and a long overdue pledge of <a href="https://www.refugee-action.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Lift-the-Ban-report.pdf">granting asylum seekers the right to work</a>. That said, even they couldn’t resist the stale proposals of “investing in officers, training and technology to prevent illegal entry at Britain’s borders”. </p>
<p>But the big story here, and where the Liberal Democrats have been far more radical than their Labour counterparts, is a major restructure of how the government runs its immigration policy. Immigration wouldn’t be in the Home Office’s remit anymore and would be separated to the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy">Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy</a> , the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-international-development">Department for International Development</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-education">Department for Education</a>. </p>
<p>The logic for this is understandable. The Home Office has long had a reputation of incompetence underpinned by a <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783319646916">culture of caution</a> – epitomised with the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/home-affairs-committee/news-parliament-2017/the-windrush-generation-report-published-17-19/">Windrush Scandal</a> and problems with the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/home-affairs-committee/news-parliament-2017/eu-settlement-scheme-report-published-17-19/">EU settlement scheme</a>.</p>
<p>These proposals are bold and grounded in a rational and astute logic that different types of immigration are better managed by the departments affected. But with rational policy-making comes a cost. Spreading the same operative immigration functions across departments would be very challenging. The scope of discretion and thus inconsistent decision-making would be huge, and the level of effective joined up government -– something <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Policy%20making%20in%20the%20real%20world.pdf">Whitehall has always struggled with</a> – seems improbable. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerB">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127370/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Consterdine received funding from the ESRC (2010-2014) </span></em></p>What the main parties propose to do about immigration.Erica Consterdine, Lecturer Public Policy, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1264542019-11-12T12:56:20Z2019-11-12T12:56:20ZLaw-and-order or conspiracy? How political parties frame the impeachment battle will help decide Trump’s fate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300941/original/file-20191108-194675-ekmjz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tallies are displayed as House members vote on a resolution on impeachment procedure on Oct. 31, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Impeachment-Resolution/4ea5d32e65b04758a94577c276e86c01/11/0">AP/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The presidential impeachment battle moves to a new stage on Wednesday, when the House will conduct the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-to-hold-first-open-hearings-in-impeachment-inquiry-of-trump/2019/11/06/90041c3c-00bd-11ea-9518-1e76abc088b6_story.html">first</a> public, televised testimony. </p>
<p>The nation is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/">divided</a>: Although a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/10/29/trump-poll-impeachment-ukraine-call-core-supporters/2478185001/">majority</a> of Americans believe that Trump should cooperate with the impeachment inquiry, the public is not yet sure if Trump is guilty of impeachable offenses. </p>
<p>The impeachment battle will occur in Congress. But it will also play out on the national stage as the two sides compete to frame how the public thinks about the legitimacy of the inquiry. </p>
<p>Frames are ways of thinking about a particular thing, person or event. Linguists like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/13/how-to-report-trump-media-manipulation-language">George Lakoff</a> explain that “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330212838_Sticky_words_Evaluation_and_optimization_of_information_interactions_based_on_linguistic_analysis">sticky</a>” frames, when repeated enough, will literally stick in our heads, rewiring the circuits in our brains and providing shortcuts to understanding reality. </p>
<p>The winner of this frame war will succeed in shaping how Americans understand the impeachment inquiry and will provide the standards for judging whether or not Trump has committed impeachable offenses. </p>
<h2>Law-and-order vs. conspiracy</h2>
<p>Democrats, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are betting that public opinion will move toward impeachment and removal once more information is made public. To try to shape public opinion they are relying on a law-and-order frame that tells Americans that the impeachment inquiry is legitimate and legally justified. </p>
<p>Democrats are positioning themselves as the only ones willing to uphold the rule of law and the Constitution. </p>
<p>Republicans, led by President Trump, are counting on their power to frame reality to prevent the public from moving toward impeachment. </p>
<p>The GOP is relying on a conspiracy frame that tells Americans that the impeachment inquiry is illegitimate and part of a plot to destroy America. Republicans are positioning themselves as the only ones who are not involved in the plot against Trump and America. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.jennifermercieca.com/">scholar of American democracy and communication</a> who has a <a href="https://7991bb1e-0d62-48eb-ab48-322d00a47622.filesusr.com/ugd/1c004b_a55cf85178a34dccbd4769fca69e8f2e.pdf">book</a> coming out next year about Trump’s 2016 campaign and demagoguery, I’ve been paying close attention to the frame wars.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300954/original/file-20191109-194641-1kw3qxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘No one is above the law,’ said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as she announced a formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, Sept. 24, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Trump-Intelligence-Whistleblower/932990ebdc9f45f48c4bfa48925a1710/3/0">AP/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Democrats’ conservative message</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/937436-the-rhetoric-of-law-and-order-was-first-mobilized-in">Historically, Republicans have</a> deployed a <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/from-wallace-to-trump-the-evolution-of-law-and-order/">law-and-order</a> frame to shape the public’s understanding of their party and policies. </p>
<p>In his 1964 Republican Party Convention acceptance <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/daily/may98/goldwaterspeech.htm">address</a>, Barry Goldwater committed the Republicans to policies that would preserve “a government limited by laws of nature and of nature’s God … so that liberty lacking order will not become the license of the mob and of the jungle.” </p>
<p>Goldwater lost the 1964 election, but his law-and-order frame has dominated the party ever since.</p>
<p>Democrats are now repurposing that frame to shape public understanding: Trump’s actions not only violated his oath to protect the Constitution, Democrats argue, but endanger the rule of law itself.</p>
<p>House Speaker Nancy Pelosi <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/24/20882453/impreachment-trump-nancy-pelosi-statement">established</a> the law and order frame from the beginning of the impeachment inquiry. </p>
<p>Pelosi’s Sept. 24, 2019 announcement launching the official impeachment inquiry referenced Constitution Day. She noted that “sadly on that day” President Trump prevented Congress from receiving information about “a whistleblower complaint,” which Pelosi said is a “violation of law.” </p>
<p>She accused Trump of “calling upon a foreign power to intervene in his election,” which was a clear “breach of his constitutional responsibilities.”</p>
<p>Pelosi next established her credibility to know the “law and order” on this issue by explaining her 25-year history on the Intelligence Committee, her work to establish the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and her work to write the whistleblower laws themselves. </p>
<p>“I can say with authority,” Pelosi declared, “that the Trump administration’s actions undermine both the national security and our intelligence and our protections of whistleblowers.” </p>
<p>“No one is above the law,” Pelosi said.</p>
<p>Pelosi’s language has been used throughout this process by fellow Democrats.</p>
<p>The Democrats’ “law and order” frame is useful because it is expansive. New information about Trump’s violations of his oath of office can be easily incorporated within the frame. </p>
<p>For example, if Trump continues to obstruct the inquiry, then the law-and-order frame lends itself to impeaching Trump for obstructing the investigation, a clear violation of law and order. </p>
<p>It’s also useful because it tells the story of the impeachment inquiry as essentially conservative – Democrats want to preserve and protect the country’s long-cherished Constitution and the rule of law. </p>
<h2>Trump’s conspiracy frame</h2>
<p>Trump is leading the Republicans in attempting to counter the Democratic Party framing. He uses a “conspiracy” frame. </p>
<p>In 1964, historian <a href="https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/">Richard Hofstadter</a> wrote about the “paranoid style” in American politics. Paranoid rhetoric throughout American history, Hofstadter wrote, told an apocalyptic story of a network of agents determined to infiltrate and undermine the nation. </p>
<p>Trump’s conspiracy framing relies upon a similar apocalyptic story. </p>
<p>On Nov. 4, 2019, Trump invoked this frame when he accused Democrats of having a “crazed thirst for power.” He told his Lexington, Kentucky, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=287&v=pGjRidJuGnA">rally</a> that “the Democrats are trying to tear our country apart.” He called the “deranged, hyper-partisan” impeachment inquiry a plot to “nullify the ballots of tens of millions of Americans.” </p>
<p>Trump’s conspiracy frame relies upon a rhetorical strategy called <a href="http://rhetoric.byu.edu/Figures/A/anticategoria.htm">tu quoque</a>, Latin for “you too.” It invokes hypocrisy, effectively saying “they do it too.” </p>
<p>Trump and the Republicans have used tu quoque to try to discredit Democrats, individual witnesses and the entire investigation. </p>
<p>“This is a <a href="https://factba.se/search#hoax">hoax</a>, the greatest hoax,” Trump <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBXttvUJRFE">claims</a> repeatedly – framing the Constitutional investigation in the language of conspiracy. </p>
<p>The Republicans’ dominant attack is that Democrats aren’t following the rule of law when they claim to be upholding the rule of law – they are hypocrites.</p>
<p>Like conspiracy, an appeal to hypocrisy centers on the question of trust. It argues that we cannot trust the opposition because their motives or actions are impure. It’s a strategy designed to deny legitimacy by attacking the credibility of the opposition. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300956/original/file-20191109-194637-x1qhme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Trump told a Kentucky rally in early November that the Democrats had a ‘crazed thirst for power.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Trump/2ec4a1d96b084e4ca5f2193bd7bc6462/40/0">AP/Susan Walsh</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What to expect</h2>
<p>As the impeachment investigation moves into its next stage, expect Trump’s team to continue to attack the essence of the Democrats’ frame. </p>
<p>Trump will likely continue to use his conspiracy frame and especially tu quoque to try to convince Americans that Democrats aren’t following the rule of law when they claim to be upholding the rule of law. </p>
<p>Attacking the transparency of the process, calling it a “Soviet style” investigation, and using <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1184293357121613824?lang=en">personal attacks</a> against Democratic leaders can all be understood as strategies within this frame. </p>
<p>Likewise, because responding to charges of conspiracy or tu quoque is a losing proposition, expect Democrats to ignore Trump’s conspiracy framing, continue to assert that the investigation is about the rule of law, and rely upon arguments from authority – the authority of the process, the Constitution and precedent – to make their case. </p>
<p>And expect them to make arguments about how history will judge this moment and the choices that are made by Congress about Trump’s conduct. </p>
<p>In their more impassioned moments, expect Democrats to resort to apocalyptic rhetoric as well. After they have provided the nation with an accumulation of evidence they say proves Trump’s guilt, expect them to argue that the very viability of the Constitution and the rule of law are on the line. </p>
<p>Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? If no one persuades anyone in Congress to adopt their frame and the parties vote along party lines, then Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives, but not removed by the Senate. </p>
<p>At that point, Americans will be asked to understand the impeachment process as both a defense of law and order and a conspiracy to remove the president. Voters in 2020 will have to decide how to make sense of that contradiction.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend.</a> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Mercieca does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Democrats and Republicans are speaking about impeachment with dramatically different language. The winner of this frame war will succeed in shaping how Americans understand the impeachment inquiry.Jennifer Mercieca, Author of the forthcoming book Demagogue for President: The Rhetorical Genius of Donald Trump (Texas A&M University Press). Associate Professor of Communication, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1248782019-10-15T22:18:15Z2019-10-15T22:18:15ZBoth conservatives and liberals can agree on action on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297148/original/file-20191015-98644-1pbf7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=59%2C74%2C8128%2C4910&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stable jobs that help transition former fossil sector workers into renewable energy can unify liberals and conservatives.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We tend to assume that democracies, over the long arc of history, work towards progress and justice. But with an issue like climate change, we’re running out of time. </p>
<p>It may come as a surprise, but at the moment, democracy may be an obstacle to the rapid action we need on climate change. </p>
<p>Democratic governments naturally swing back and forth between conservative and liberal control. But environmental issues are increasingly associated with liberal values exclusively in countries like Canada and the United States. </p>
<p>The transition from a liberal government to a conservative one often leads to a relapse of environmental policies, including <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-tree-planting-program-cut-1.5110282">program cuts</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5900012/alberta-climate-change-environmental-monitoring-closes/">delays</a> and even outright <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/canadian-scientists-open-about-how-their-government-silenced-science-180961942/">rejections or silencing of the science underlying climate change</a>.</p>
<p>In Canada, the 2019 federal election is <a href="http://338canada.com/polls.htm">tightly contested</a> between the Liberal and Conservative parties. There’s no doubt that a government under Andrew Scheer’s leadership would be, at best, significantly weaker on climate issues than left-leaning candidates. At worst, it risks a return to Stephen Harper-era environmental politics that could include cuts to essential science funding and withdrawal from multilateral agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement. </p>
<p>The links between liberalism and environmentalism are clear, but if we’re going to be successful within the 12-year window outlined in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">IPCC’s recent report</a> to keep global warming to 1.5C, we need to make progress despite the swings of democratic politics. </p>
<p>How do we design a big-tent coalition that will bring in conservative-leaning voters and politicians, and maintain momentum regardless of who’s in power?</p>
<h2>Is the problem in our heads?</h2>
<p>One place to start is with a re-evaluation at the individual level. Is there something in our psychological bedrock that marries environmentalism and liberalism? </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12222">Research in political psychology</a> has identified robust correlations between political orientation and personality traits: openness to new experiences and agreeableness for left-leaning voters, and conscientiousness for right-leaning voters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-are-climate-change-skeptics-often-right-wing-conservatives-123549">Climate explained: Why are climate change skeptics often right-wing conservatives?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916514554695">Yet a 2014 study of U.S. residents</a> found that openness (associated with left-leaning people) and conscientiousness (associated with right-leaning people) are both strong predictors of environmentally friendly behaviours. Many other studies have found the raw materials of conservatism in environmental behaviour as well. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297153/original/file-20191015-98666-mfxa45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s possible to bridge the gap between liberals and conservatives on environmental issues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If political psychology is any indication, there’s clearly an opportunity to bring conscientiously minded conservatives into the environmental movement. </p>
<h2>Environmentalism as “big government”</h2>
<p>Others might attribute the polarization to a matter of political philosophy and divergent ideas about the appropriate role of government. </p>
<p>From a libertarian perspective, should governments protect fundamental rights so we can enjoy our personal liberties? Or, conversely, in a social democratic sense, should the government construct a bureaucratic apparatus that helps ensure the welfare of all citizens?</p>
<p>Environmentalism is often <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0003122412438225">cast by conservatives as a “regulatory science,”</a> a project of big government. Yet any cursory scan of prominent policy ideas about climate run the gamut of the philosophical spectrum, from initiatives that rely on market innovation and dynamism to complex regulatory regimes, taxes and public sector transformations. </p>
<p>Environmentalism makes room for all sorts of diverse ideas about the the role and participation of government. There’s no necessary incompatibility with conservative political perspectives there. </p>
<p>Instead, some scholars have found the polarization of the issue stems from an intentional and maligned effort to frame environmentalism in a negative light. Fossil fuel companies have backed think tanks, industry associations and universities to mislead the public on the facts of climate change and efforts to reverse it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.12211">in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566600.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199566600-e-10">United States</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-house-is-on-fire-why-greta-thunberg-infuriates-conservatives-124341">'Our house is on fire!' Why Greta Thunberg infuriates conservatives</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These efforts have positioned environmentalism in opposition to progress, prosperity and conservative values — and labelled it a movement of radicals and eccentrics. In addition, climate change denial has gone hand-in-hand with efforts to engineer skepticism of science and trust in public institutions, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122412438225">U.S. studies have shown</a> to disproportionally effect conservative-leaning voters. </p>
<h2>A way forward</h2>
<p>Yet framing can be contested and stereotypes undone. A big-tent non-partisan environmental movement is clearly possible. </p>
<p>Appealing to the driving political psychology and ideology of both liberals and conservatives, highlighting common values, undermining stereotypes and being inclusive of intellectual difference are all ingredients to break down polarization and make climate change a persistent issue for both liberals and conservatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297159/original/file-20191015-98666-saapd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Support for the Green New Deal extends beyond environmental issues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Richard Vogel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have real world examples of this approach at play. Though by name the “Green New Deal” is associated with large-scale American public investment and thus “big government,” it’s also sensitive to the plight of citizens that might otherwise embody a conservative anti-environment sentiment. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-green-new-deal-is-going-global-115961">The Green New Deal is going global</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Coal mine workers, oil rig operators and the towns that support them are subject to major contractions and layoffs as oil prices and fuel demands fluctuate. Creating good, stable jobs to help transition former fossil sector workers into renewable energy brings together a unifying vision of shared prosperity. </p>
<p>Indeed, a poll conducted in the U.S. found that <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/the-green-new-deal-has-strong-bipartisan-support/">64 per cent of Republicans supported the idea</a>, and in <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/10w3w4j8azwvsid/North99%20Green%20New%20Deal%20Results.pdf?dl=0">Canada about half of conservatives</a>. </p>
<p>In the face of close federal elections, environmentalists may double down on their partisanship. But in the long term, environmental advocates should be thinking strategically about how to engage and build coalitions with voters on the other side of the spectrum, and how to combat and undermine negative stereotypes and frameworks generated by those who benefit from keeping conservatives out of the movement. </p>
<p>In this fight, we’re going to need all the help we can get. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124878/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Elliott is affiliated with The Environmental Governance Lab at the University of Toronto. </span></em></p>Conservatives share some of the same values as environmentalists. Tapping into these can help tackle climate change.Christian Elliott, PhD Student and Researcher, Department of Political Science, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229252019-09-20T12:34:49Z2019-09-20T12:34:49ZPartisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292336/original/file-20190912-190035-9u6p77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C6%2C4001%2C2671&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even in the physical world, it's hard to cross partisan lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/top-view-sneakers-above-male-female-197932532">igorstevanovic/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When people try to explain why the United States is so <a href="https://www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/">politically polarized</a> now, they <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/12/as-david-lettermans-first-netflix-guest-barack-obama-warns-against-the-bubble-of-social-media/">frequently refer</a> to the concept of “echo chambers.” </p>
<p>That’s the idea that people on social media interact only with like-minded people, reinforcing each other’s beliefs. When people don’t encounter competing ideas, the argument goes, they become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9760.00148">less willing to cooperate with political opponents</a>.</p>
<p>The problem goes beyond the online world. In my new book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/overdoing-democracy-9780190924195?cc=us&lang=en&">Overdoing Democracy: Why We Must Put Politics in its Place</a>,” I explain that in the United States, liberals and conservatives do not only differ politically. </p>
<p>They also live separate lives in the physical world.</p>
<p>This phenomenon was first documented in journalist Bill Bishop’s 2004 book “<a href="http://www.thebigsort.com/home">The Big Sort</a>.” Scholars have found it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1191991">has persisted into more recent years</a> as well. </p>
<p>It turns out that people’s physical communities, surroundings and lifestyles can be their own form of an echo chamber. This separation is so complete that it includes not only the communities and neighborhoods where people live, but also where people shop and what brands they buy, what sort of work they do, where they worship, what sorts of vacations they take and even how they decorate their homes.</p>
<h2>How personal do political divisions get?</h2>
<p>It’s common knowledge that liberals and conservatives live in different places. After all, the idea of <a href="https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2018/03/13/red-states-blue-states-two-economies-one-nation/">“red states” and “blue states”</a> is based in reality. But preferences are much more local than that. </p>
<p>Liberals and conservatives in the U.S. systematically favor different kinds of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1532673X08318589">physical environments</a>. Even when they live in regions that might overall appear more politically mixed, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/13/big-houses-art-museums-and-in-laws-how-the-most-ideologically-polarized-americans-live-different-lives/">liberals prefer walkable and ethnically diverse communities</a>, while conservatives gravitate toward <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-democrats-cities/">areas with larger houses and more private land</a>. </p>
<p>Different preferences govern the most personal surroundings: One study shows that liberals and conservatives <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20447169?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">decorate their homes differently</a>. Clocks and flags for conservatives, art and maps for liberals. According to the same research, they also fashion different workspaces. Conservatives favor neater and more orderly spaces, while liberals tend to work in offices that are less organized and more colorful.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292648/original/file-20190916-19083-iu6krr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Which side are you on?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-york-nyusafebruary-6-2019-starbucks-1306178518">rblfmr/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What shopping reveals</h2>
<p>When it comes to commerce, the contrasting stereotypes are familiar: Walmart or Target? Starbucks or Dunkin? Hybrid or pickup? Football or fútbol? Whole Foods or Kroger? Beyoncé or Toby Keith? A broad body of research suggests that these references to consumer habits are effective representatives of political views. </p>
<p>Political opponents tend to <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2018/01/25/walmart-vs-target-a-political-divide-among-shoppers/">shop at different stores</a>, with conservatives at Walmart and liberals at Target. Shoppers favor <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/02/brands-preferred-democrats-republicans-221912">different brands</a> of home coffeemaker, pet food and jeans depending on their political preferences.</p>
<p><iframe id="ryN9o" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ryN9o/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Liberals and conservatives even view the very act of shopping differently. One experiment found that conservatives <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucy004">seek to purchase items that signal their status</a> within a social hierarchy, such as luxury and success, while liberals seek out purchases that will establish their individuality and distinctness.</p>
<h2>Work and home are different, too</h2>
<p>Similar dynamics appear in other spheres of Americans’ daily lives. Over the past two decades, the American workplace, once heralded as a <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00376.x">site of cross-partisan cooperation</a>, has become more politically homogeneous. </p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/jla/article/8/2/277/2502548">Certain professions</a> now tend to skew decidedly left or right. Lawyers, journalists and professors tend to skew liberal, whereas conservatives are prevalent in finance and medicine.</p>
<p>Liberals and conservatives live in <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/698929?mobileUi=0&">different kinds of family groups</a>. Liberals get <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1995822">married later in life and have fewer children</a>. Data even show that people tend to be more <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/political-homophily-social-relationships-evidence-online-dating">romantically interested in those who share their political affliation</a>, rather than people who don’t. In fact, Americans are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs038">more disapproving of cross-partisan relationships</a> than they are of interracial ones.</p>
<p>Liberals and conservatives worship in <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/political-ideology/">different congregations</a>; conservatives tend toward evangelical Christianity, while liberals are more diverse in their faith. And they take <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/liberals-conservatives-even-vacation-differently-n1027161">different kinds of vacations</a>. Liberals more often vacation abroad and spend more time at beaches than conservatives, who tend to travel by car to spots where they can fish and play golf. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292673/original/file-20190916-19083-1ivmgau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is this the ultimate bipartisan vacation spot?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/golf-ball-on-tee-sand-678852598">Kirill Skvarnikov/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reconnecting a deeply divided nation</h2>
<p>In ways that are not always conscious, more and more personal choices and characteristics are regarded by citizens as <a href="https://pcl.stanford.edu/research/2015/iyengar-ajps-group-polarization.pdf">expressing partisan allegiances</a>. Carrying a tote bag, wearing yoga pants, shopping at Walmart, driving a pickup truck are all ways of signaling one’s political affiliation. This in turn reinforces the fact that liberals and conservatives inhabit different social worlds, each becoming at once <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12487">increasingly homogeneous within their groups and more intensely hostile toward the other</a>. </p>
<p>Finding common ground in such a divided country will require more than one commonly offered solution, that people <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/independentminds/long-reads/matthew-syed-book-review-rebel-ideas-social-networks-a9097246.html">diversify their news sources</a>. With political disputes magnified and amplified by disparate, even opposing, ways of life, it’s harder to see political rivals as fellow citizens. </p>
<p>Rather, they appear to be <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2016/06/22/partisanship-and-political-animosity-in-2016/">obstacles and threats</a>. Encounters with these opposing forces breed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804840115">fear and hostility</a>, not comfort and familiarity.</p>
<p>With citizens sorted into physical and digital partisan enclaves, the Democratic and Republican parties find it rewarding to accentuate their differences from each other. Unwillingness to compromise or cooperate with the other side becomes a sign of integrity, leaving the business of politics undone.</p>
<p>To keep American democracy healthy, people all across the country will have to do more than engage with different ideas online. They’ll need to find shared interests and goals despite their persistent, and often deep, differences. The solution, it seems to me, is to find things to do together that are in no way political. But in a world where nearly everything – even carrying tote bag or driving a pickup – is an expression of one’s politics, that may be easier said than done.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122925/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert B. Talisse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the United States, liberals and conservatives do not only differ politically. They also live separate lives in the physical world.Robert B. Talisse, W. Alton Jones Professor of Philosophy, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1197992019-09-17T12:49:50Z2019-09-17T12:49:50ZExpanding direct democracy won’t make Americans feel better about politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291863/original/file-20190910-190007-1bovpnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nurses in November 2016 expressed support for a ballot proposition to limit what California state agencies pay for prescription drugs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Drug-Prices-Ballot-Initiative/f5a1f66a30c04a908e8f814542b85cc1/247/0">AP/Nick Ut, file</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Americans watch the Brexit-related <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-backstop-nireland-explaine/explainer-focus-back-on-northern-ireland-only-backstop-as-johnsons-options-narrow-idUKKCN1VV17C">political turmoil in the United Kingdom</a>, it is important to remember that the chaos there began in a form of direct democracy. When U.K. voters set in motion their exit from the European Union, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887">they did so by voting directly on the so-called “Brexit” initiative</a>.</p>
<p>Normally, such major policy would have been initiated, deliberated and voted on by their elected officials in Parliament.</p>
<p>The Brexit mess is an example of the disruptive potential of direct democracy, a practice that Americans <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/163433/americans-favor-national-referenda-key-issues.aspx">have long believed</a> leads to a healthier democratic society. </p>
<p>Recent polls show Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with their system of representative democracy. <a href="https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/10/31/18042060/poll-dissatisfaction-american-democracy-young">Many</a> see sharp and unhealthy partisan divisions and lack confidence that the system will produce the results they desire. </p>
<p>Against this backdrop, some advocate for greater use of direct democracy. This includes <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/States_with_initiative_or_referendum">ballot initiatives, such as those practiced in 24 states</a>, including California, Massachusetts and Michigan. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_initiative">Ballot initiatives</a> bypass the normal legislative process. They can be written by anyone and receive a public vote without input from lawmakers, provided enough petition signatures are obtained to get the initiative on the ballot. </p>
<p>Well-known initiatives have dealt with issues like <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_Same-Sex_Marriage_Question,_Question_1_(2012)">same-sex marriage</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_24,_Repeal_of_Corporate_Tax_Breaks_(2010)">tax reform</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Marijuana_Legalization,_Ballot_Measure_2_(2014)">marijuana legalization</a>. Advocates say <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwRHJn3rQP0">greater use of such measures</a> could help address citizen disengagement from – and cynicism about – politics.
Based on 15 years of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-014-9273-5">our</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X08330635">own</a> <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-008-9081-x">research</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9993024">we believe that the commonly held view of the initiative process – that it’s good for democracy – is wrong</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291864/original/file-20190910-190050-1a7qakx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Direct democracy, say the authors, produces greater political conflict and polarization, such as this demonstration in London on Sept. 4 of Brexit supporters and detractors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Britain-Brexit/f65578fc29c840b880b629c1eee245cc/11/0">AP/Alastair Grant</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Progressives’ unfulfilled hope</h2>
<p>Claims promoting the positive benefits of direct democracy on voter turnout and engagement have appeared periodically since the wave of <a href="http://www.loc.gov/teachers/classroommaterials/presentationsandactivities/presentations/timeline/progress/">Progressive Era reforms during the early 20th century</a>. Those reforms led to the establishment of the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_initiative_and_referendum_in_the_U.S.">state ballot initiative process</a>.</p>
<p>Americans practice a form of <a href="https://www.historyonthenet.com/what-is-a-representative-democracy">representative democracy</a> by choosing among candidates for office. <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/siecles/1109?lang=en">Advocates for direct democracy</a> maintain that by voting directly on policy proposals, people become more knowledgeable about government, confident of their own abilities and positive about the capabilities of others. </p>
<p>As political theorist <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520242333/strong-democracy">Ben Barber asserted</a>, the “initiative and referendum can increase popular participation in and responsibility for government, provide a permanent instrument of civic education, and give popular talk the reality and discipline that it needs to be effective.” </p>
<p>Beginning about two decades ago, some <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/democracy-institutions-and-attitudes-about-citizen-influence-on-government/F6DFDF0A30CE0D9E7A38EA0465D31FBB">political scientists</a> <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11463/educated_by_initiative">claimed to find support</a> for the idea that greater use of direct democracy tools, especially the state ballot initiative, helps people get more interested in and engaged with politics and spurs more trust in government. </p>
<p>Direct democracy has been popular with both political parties, and liberals as well as conservatives. </p>
<p>Modern-day progressives often claim the ballot initiative can fix problems like gerrymandering, campaign finance abuses or growing income inequality. The Ballot Initiative Strategy Center <a href="https://ballot.org/why-were-here/">states that</a> “[W]e envision a future in which progressives have harnessed the power of ballot measures as proactive tools for success – to increase civic engagement, enact forward-looking policies, and strengthen progressive infrastructure in key states.”</p>
<p>Yet not so long ago, <a href="https://ballot.org/why-were-here/">conventional wisdom held</a> that ballot initiatives and referendums were the <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo3615566.html">tools of conservatives</a>, at least in the last 40 years. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_13,_Tax_Limitations_Initiative_(1978)">In 1978, California passed Proposition 13</a>, sparking tax-cutting measures across the country. <a href="https://guides.ll.georgetown.edu/c.php?g=592919&p=4182201">Before the Supreme Court ruled that same-sex marriage was legal</a>, states with ballot initiatives and voter-approved constitutional amendments passed laws defining marriage as between a man in a woman in more than 30 statewide votes between 1998 and 2011. </p>
<h2>Conflict and polarization</h2>
<p>Drawing on a wide variety of data, we conclude in our book <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/9993024/initiatives_without_engagement">“Initiatives without Engagement”</a> that the initiative process mainly encourages greater conflict rather than produces political and social benefits. </p>
<p>Ballot initiatives can increase voter turnout, which seems like positive news. But they do so through <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00688.x">mobilization of occasional voters</a> and encourage voting commonly based on fear <a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9993024">without making people more generally knowledgeable or engaged</a>. </p>
<p>Initiatives can also be a tool for ideological extremists and opportunists. They use the process to circumvent the American legislative process, long noted for its incrementalism and premium on compromise. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9993024">Our research</a> finds that the relationship between party identification and polarized issue attitudes – where Democrats increasingly take the more liberal position and Republicans take the more conservative position – is about 25%-45% bigger in states that frequently use the initiative than in noninitiative states. </p>
<h2>Tyranny of the majority</h2>
<p>Our research also confirms that initiatives often inflame occasional majority group voters. They do this with measures targeting the rights of minority group members. </p>
<p>This has been the case with attempts to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00175.x">limit the rights of immigrants, curb affirmative action</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/72/3/399/1836972">define marriage as between a man and a woman</a>.</p>
<p>Examining all post-World War II ballot measures in California, we found numerous examples of votes that sought to curtail the rights of minority groups, including the LGBT community, racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants. Only <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_11,_Fair_Employment_Practices_Act_(1946)">one initiative was aimed at expanding them</a>. </p>
<p>The 1946 ballot initiative, Proposition 11, was called the “Fair Employment Practices Act” and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_1946_ballot_propositions">would have barred employers from discriminating</a> on the basis of race, religion, color, national origin or ancestry. It received only 28% yes votes to 72% no. </p>
<p>This is exactly the “majority tyranny” that worried the American founders. <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp">James Madison famously argued</a> that pure democracies were incompatible with “personal security” and “property rights.” Given the opportunity, he believed, the masses might vote away the rights and wealth of the elite. His ultimate point, that majorities can be myopic, has proven prescient. </p>
<h2>Distrust in government</h2>
<p>In the wake of all this conflict <a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9993024">our research</a> shows that frequent use of ballot initiatives makes citizens trust government less, not more. This is because initiative campaigns often stress that government is broken. Voters then conclude that we would have fewer direct democracy campaigns if government was more competent. </p>
<p>Many people have a visceral attachment to the idea that “the cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy.” Presidential candidate and Democratic donor Tom Steyer and others <a href="https://calmatters.org/blogs/california-election-2020/2019/07/tom-steyer-presidential-bid-california-ideas-for-country-politics-direct-democracy/">advocate for expansion of direct democracy to the national level</a>. </p>
<p>By contrast, some scholars express concern that extending direct democracy to the national level would result in a lack of effective deliberation <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/vanlr56&div=17&g_sent=1&casa_token=sTW3qRG9S4cAAAAA:5guUerCiGxZQGghrOoJj4LXD7rBcAgqqC6hhojjZYxZMp1r9mNaev43qUj-URtiTSfQRNW309Q&collection=journals">if critical policy issues were decided by popular vote</a>. And because direct democracy addresses issues one at a time rather than in relation to one another, it can <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/hlr112&div=20&g_sent=1&casa_token=70_gQ1kcthIAAAAA:D0vBOia73vGdM5RKTkAYbi29IWa5234af2b7m9a6l8wYqZhrMIg4X2Sq95fALikT9rx9N4CoYw&collection=journals">hamper the ability to set priorities</a>. This is especially true of measures that affect state budgets. </p>
<p>Our research goes further, raising concerns about the consequences of extending direct democracy for citizens’ engagement with their government. We think the likely effects of taking something like the state initiative process to the national level would be to deepen distrust between citizens and government as it has in the states. That in turn would give parties and presidents another tool to strengthen polarization. </p>
<p>The consequences of a national referendum process in the U.S. could resemble what has transpired in the U.K. more than the anodyne promises of would-be reformers. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119799/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Citizens voting directly on policy seems like a good idea. But that led to the Brexit mess in the UK. In the US, two scholars say direct democracy deepens distrust of politics and government.Joshua J. Dyck, Associate Professor of Political Science; Director of the Center for Public Opinion, UMass LowellEdward L. Lascher Jr., Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy and Administration, California State University, SacramentoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1208782019-07-24T22:23:14Z2019-07-24T22:23:14ZThe Christian right’s efforts to transform society<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285432/original/file-20190723-110195-zcc6hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C185%2C4000%2C2934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer at the Calgary Stampede on July 6. Groups associated with the Christian right are expected to support his political party in the October elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/index.fwx">The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47940659">The battle now raging in several American states over women’s reproductive rights</a> is a direct result of the Christian right’s efforts to impose its religious values on the family and in politics. </p>
<p>The polarization around abortion in the United States is at such a level that some of the leaders of these conservative religious groups are promoting the idea of an impending <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/26/abortion-ban-rightwing-christian-figures-civil-war-predictions">second American Civil War.</a></p>
<p>We should not assume that the debates generated by the Christian right in the United States will not have any impact in Canada. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/unplanned-anti-abortion-movie-journey-to-56-theatres-1.5208979">Indeed, the recent release of the film <em>Unplanned</em></a> shows that this politico-religious coalition seeks to change attitudes in Canada too.</p>
<p>That’s why it’s so important to be vigilant about the fight being waged by some anti-abortion lobby groups in this country. The <a href="https://www.campaignlifecoalition.com/">Campaign Life Coalition</a>, with its 200,000 members, and <a href="https://www.itstartsrightnow.ca/">RightNow</a> are tirelessly working to elect candidates who oppose abortion. They successfully supported the recently elected candidates of provincial Conservative parties in Ontario and Alberta. </p>
<p>These lobbies frame the abortion debate as a human rights issue. Like Sam Oosterhoff, a 21-year-old member of the Ontario legislature for Niagara West in Premier Doug Ford’s Conservative government, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/how-canadas-growing-anti-abortion-movement-plans-to-swing-the-next-federal-election/">many want to make the very idea of having an abortion unthinkable in Canada </a> in the next 30 years or so. </p>
<p>While criminalizing abortion in Canada could be a challenge, it is nevertheless possible for a provincial government to eliminate funding for institutions that offer women the choice to terminate unwanted pregnancies.</p>
<h2>Evangelical support for Trump</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/evangelical-christians-face-deepening-crisis/593353/">The Christian right</a> had an impact on the 2016 U.S. election, securing Donald Trump’s presidency.</p>
<p>Indeed, part of Trump’s success stemmed from the fact <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-trump-emboldening-right-wing-extremism-in-canada-82635">that 81 per cent of white evangelicals voted for him.</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/18/evangelical-approval-of-trump-remains-high-but-other-religious-groups-are-less-supportive/">According to Pew Research</a>, Trump still receives his highest support from white Christians heading into the 2020 election, with 69 per cent of evangelicals poised to endorse him along with white Protestants at 48 per cent and white Catholics at 44 per cent. </p>
<p>Comparatively, Trump only garners the support of 12 per cent of black Protestants and 26 per cent of non-white Catholics, according to the Pew poll. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump arrives at the White House in July 2019. His rise to power comes from the fact that 81 percent of the white evangelicals voted for him.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-democrats-republicans/house-condemns-trump-over-racist-comments-tweeted-at-congresswomen-idUSKCN1UB1QO">The U.S. president’s racist comments on Twitter </a> recently have likely further contributed to the polarization of the religious electorate in the United States. But even if some evangelical leaders condemned the tone of Trump’s tweets, <a href="https://www.charismanews.com/opinion/in-the-line-of-fire/77179-were-president-trump-s-recent-tweets-racist?utm_source=Charisma%20News%20Daily&utm_medium=email&utm_content=subscriber_id:5298752&utm_campaign=CNO%20daily%20-%202019-07-16">some have nonetheless denied the racist nature</a> of his comments. </p>
<p>Such Christian right leaders will still vote for Trump against any Democratic candidate. One, Michael Brown, has even <a href="https://stream.org/liberal-media-wont-shame-voting-trump/">clearly stated</a> why he will vote for Trump in 2020. It’s all about the agenda:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In the same way, when it comes to the economy, if it’s Trump vs. a socialist, he has my vote. The same when it comes to religious liberties. Or standing with Israel. Or pushing back against radical LGBT activism. Trump gets my vote, and the liberal media won’t shame me out of it.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Transforming society</h2>
<p>What exactly is <a href="http://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/tserve/twenty/tkeyinfo/chr_rght.htm">the Christian right</a>? </p>
<p>It is a religious coalition with political aims that is mainly comprised of evangelicals and conservative Catholics and Protestants. It also sometimes attracts the support of politically conservative Mormons and Jewish groups. </p>
<p>The coalition unites around common causes such as anti-abortion activism, opposition to the rights of LGBTQ people and sex education classes. They also speak out in favour of the promotion of prayer in schools and the teaching of creationism (or intelligent design), the fight against euthanasia and the safeguarding of what they call religious freedom.</p>
<p>The agenda of the Christian right can be summed up essentially as promoting the idea of a Christian nationalism in which the establishment of Judeo-Christian “values” is the foundation of the country’s law. </p>
<p>To achieve its objectives, the Christian right has adopted what is called a “<a href="https://www.politicalresearch.org/2016/08/18/dominionism-rising-a-theocratic-movement-hiding-in-plain-sight#sthash.TCmOSUyU.oTPWTXkf.dpbs">dominionist</a>” strategy, where Christians are called to exercise power and dominate the world, according to their interpretation of a passage from the book of Genesis (1:26-28). </p>
<p>This idea is framed in terms of “social transformation” and presented as the <a href="https://www.charismamag.com/life/culture/25597-do-you-know-the-seven-mountains-mandate-for-every-christian">Seven Mountains Mandate</a> (also referred to as the seven moulders or spheres of culture).</p>
<p>According to their plan, a social “change of attitude” can be effected by influencing the seven “spheres” or “mountains” of culture: religion, education, economics, politics, arts and entertainment, media and the family. </p>
<p>But why the need for “social transformation?” The end goal is “dominion,” the establishment of God’s Kingdom on Earth. It is the fulfilment of Jesus’ prayer: “Your kingdom come, your will be done <em>on Earth</em> as it is in heaven.” (Matthew 6:10)</p>
<p>For many Christian leaders who embrace dominionist ideas, social transformation will not be achieved through massive religious conversions. In fact, <a href="https://youtu.be/2RLHlXZMdhM">one key proponent of the Seven Mountains Mandate believes that</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The business of shifting culture or transforming nations does not require a majority of conversions… We need more disciples in the right places, the high places. Minorities of people can shape the agenda, if properly aligned and deployed… The world is a matrix of overlapping systems or spheres of influence. We are called to go into the entire matrix and invade every system with an influence that liberates that system’s fullest potential… The battle in each sphere is over the ideas that dominate that sphere and between the individuals who have the most power to advance those ideas.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Support for Scheer</h2>
<p>This all requires the mobilization of people belonging to groups rallied to the goals of the Christian right. For example, charismatic dominionist groups succeed in such mobilization by forming what they call “<a href="http://www.intheworkplace.com/apps/articles/?articleid=22896">apostles in the workplace</a>” — people who aim to penetrate the seven spheres of culture in order to effect the desired change.</p>
<p>As we approach the federal election in Canada, groups associated with the Christian right are also seeking to gradually insert themselves into the various “spheres of culture” and influence the political agenda. </p>
<p>Some Canadian evangelicals have formed coalitions aligned to Christian right ideas. <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5511047/conversion-therapy-ban-3/">One recent initiative</a> is the <a href="https://oneaccord.one">West Coast Christian Accord</a>, a group of evangelical leaders seeking to mobilize Christians across Canada to vote for candidates they believe will safeguard their religious values in the upcoming federal election. </p>
<p>Clearly, the current political climate influenced by white evangelicals in the United States has also emboldened similar religious groups ahead of the Canadian election.</p>
<p>Such groups will likely give their support to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, the candidate who best represents their own socio-conservative values. </p>
<p>Even if Scheer says <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew-scheer-trudeau-abortion-alabama-1.5140900">he has no plans to reopen the abortion debate</a> in Canada, is he speaking the truth? We may have the answer in the near future.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120878/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Gagné ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The current political climate influenced by white evangelicals in the United States has emboldened similar religious groups in Canada ahead of our own federal election.André Gagné, Associate Professor, Department of Theological Studies; Full Member of the Centre for the Study of Learning and Performance, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1140592019-03-22T10:45:12Z2019-03-22T10:45:12ZWhat President Trump’s executive order on campus free speech is really meant to do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265215/original/file-20190321-93032-cb0wp4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump holds up an executive order requiring colleges to certify that their policies support free speech as a condition of receiving federal research grants.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/5653ca3fb09c4396a1390a66cdd55c8e/11/0">Jacquelyn Martin/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/Trump-Says-He-ll-Sign-Order/245812">much anticipated</a> executive order that President Donald Trump issued March 21 to protect free speech on campus is about politics, not policy.</p>
<p>The proof is in the <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/here-s-what-trump-s/245943?cid=bn&cid=bn&utm_medium=en&utm_source=bn">executive order</a> itself. The order implies that campuses that limit speech will lose federal grants. However, the free speech aspects of the order demand that universities to do what they do already.</p>
<p>The order directs 11 federal agencies that make research and education grants “to ensure institutions that receive Federal research or education grants promote free inquiry, including through compliance with all applicable Federal laws, regulations, and policies.”</p>
<p>Public institutions are already <a href="https://www.aclu.org/other/speech-campus">bound by law</a> to uphold the First Amendment. And, <a href="https://www.thefire.org/spotlight/public-and-private-universities/">as First Amendment watchdogs note</a>, most private universities protect speech. Universities are already required to comply with numerous <a href="https://compliance.berkeley.edu/laws-regulations">civil rights and equal protection laws</a> to qualify for federal funding. </p>
<h2>Political context</h2>
<p>The order comes at a time when many of Trump’s core supporters are concerned with what they <a href="https://www.wpxi.com/news/national-news/ap-top-news/proposed-order-on-campus-speech-follows-wave-of-complaints-1/927649130">perceive to be a culture of political correctness</a> in American higher education. In response to these political concerns, Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/trump-threatens-uc-berkeleys-funding-after-violent-protests-shut-down-a-speaker/2017/02/02/2a13198a-e984-11e6-b82f-687d6e6a3e7c_story.html?utm_term=.8b64e29f7aa7">first threatened</a> to pull federal research funding from the University of California at Berkeley in 2017 after the school canceled a scheduled appearance by incendiary speaker Milo Yiannopoulos. The president repeated his promise to pull federal research dollars from campuses that do not protect the First Amendment in a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-2019-conservative-political-action-conference/">speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference</a> in February of this year. </p>
<p>The campus free speech executive order is the president’s attempt to make good on the promise to his political base.</p>
<p>It is not clear how the order would work or be enforced. But if the free speech order is political symbolism, why does it matter? As a scholar who studies the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dlN3SccAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">politics of higher education and research funding</a>, I believe the order matters in the following ways.</p>
<h2>Mostly about student outcomes</h2>
<p>The biggest likely impact of the order has nothing to do with free speech. </p>
<p>The order directs the Department of Education to provide more granular information about student debt and earnings on <a href="https://collegescorecard.ed.gov">the College Scorecard</a>. The Obama administration <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2013/02/13/obama-administration-launches-college-scorecard">set up the Scorecard</a> to provide information about college affordability and outcomes.</p>
<p>Under the order, institutions will have to give the Department of Education program-specific information about how much their graduates earn and how well they are doing at paying back their student loans.</p>
<p>In this sense, the order is an extension of long-term and bipartisan federal market-based education policy. The idea is that college affordability and student outcomes can help students make better informed choices about which college to attend.</p>
<h2>Federal research dollars at stake</h2>
<p>The order may also have some potential consequences to scientific research.</p>
<p>In 2017 the federal government spent over <a href="https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/herd/2017/html/herd2017_dst_05.html">US$40 billion</a> on academic research, which supported included studies vital to improving health and public welfare. The University of California at Berkeley, for example, alone received $330 million in federal research funds. Pulling those funds to settle a political score would damage university finances and impede the course of science.</p>
<p>Holding a high standard for speech protection could also have consequences for the president’s base. Liberty University, headed by Trump ally Jerry Falwell Jr., has been cited by free speech advocates as having a <a href="https://www.thefire.org/10-worst-colleges-for-free-speech-2019/">repressive climate</a> for free expression. However, in 2017 Liberty won only <a href="https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/herd/2017/html/herd2017_dst_05.html">$120,000 in federal research grants</a> – so it doesn’t have much to lose.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Cantwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though largely political and symbolic, the campus free speech order that President Trump issued matters because it ties millions of federal research dollars to how well colleges protect free speech.Brendan Cantwell, Associate Professor of Higher, Adult, and Lifelong Education, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1115552019-02-19T14:03:58Z2019-02-19T14:03:58ZEngland’s school system is in crisis – could Labour’s National Education Service be the solution?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259106/original/file-20190214-1754-3fr7v0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>England’s education system is reaching crisis point. A major problem is the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-school-workforce?utm_source=9c5cf4fb-928a-486c-b66b-937c8271426f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate">teacher shortage</a> – as schools struggle to recruit and retain staff. Maybe this isn’t surprising, though, given a recent survey found that many state school teachers say much of their work is <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-state-school-teachers-say-much-of-their-work-is-meaningless-95803">meaningless</a> – reduced to being merely about capturing metrics rather than real learning. </p>
<p>Teachers in England’s schools are under enormous pressure to get good test results for the all-important league tables. This has led to a widespread “teach to the test” culture. There is also growing evidence of “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/feb/09/schools-admissions-dodgy-practices-ofsted">dodgy practices</a>” in admissions – all in a bid to boost rankings. One way this happens is by informal or managed exclusions of poorly performing pupils – who are often children with <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-children-with-autism-are-let-down-by-schools-and-end-up-in-prison-107376">special educational needs</a>.</p>
<p>This competitiveness, which permeates much of the system, is also having a negative impact on pupils. Mental health problems <a href="https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/a-to-z/c/children-and-young-people">affect about one in ten children</a> – and partly to blame are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychological-impact-of-the-grammar-school-test-new-research-97961">marathon of tests</a> they have endured from a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/30220336/Testing_times_and_the_thirst_for_data_for_what">young age</a>. Children in England are among <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2016/05/why-english-schoolchildren-are-so-unhappy">the most tested and least happy</a> in the world.</p>
<p>Educational <a href="https://theconversation.com/inequality-of-education-in-the-uk-among-highest-of-rich-nations-105519">inequality</a> is chronic in the UK. And the combination of high-stakes testing and selective schooling makes matters worse. The effect of social class is most prominent at the age of 11 when <a href="https://theconversation.com/grammar-schools-do-nothing-for-social-mobility-heres-why-66864">grammar schools</a> get the opportunity to select pupils – most of whom have had access to <a href="https://theconversation.com/growth-of-private-tuition-tells-story-of-mounting-pressure-on-parents-4780">private tuition</a>. It’s no accident, then, that high-performing selective schools <a href="https://theconversation.com/grammar-schools-damage-social-cohesion-and-make-no-difference-to-exam-grades-new-research-93957">continue to be dominated by the wealthiest</a> pupils. </p>
<p>With so much competition between schools, you might expect there to be choice – but it seems choice depends on the depth of your pocket. Consider, for example, the price tag of £204,000 in basic fees alone for a five year <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36953696/Mystification_of_production_and_feasibility_of_alternatives_Social_class_inequality_and_education?source=swp_share">education</a> at Eton – this, the top school in the UK, is only a choice for the most <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2019/01/private-schools-dominate-britain-engines-of-privelege-greem-kynaston-review">affluent</a> parents of 13 year olds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gcses-are-a-waste-of-time-an-education-expert-proposes-an-alternative-101647">GCSEs are a waste of time – an education expert proposes an alternative</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Issues beyond the school gates</h2>
<p>The state of higher education is no better. With funding slashed, more than 40% of total <a href="https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-analysis/reports/Documents/2016/university-funding-explained.pdf">university finance</a> now comes from student fees. And with tuition fees being among the highest in the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/university-tuition-fees-england-highest-world-compare-students-student-loan-calculator-a7654276.html">world</a>, students are forced to take student loans carrying exorbitant interest rates of between 3.3% and 6.3%. Though these do not necessarily have the same impact on students from wealthier families who can pay off the debt immediately if they want.</p>
<p>Universities are now offering more places and increasingly more <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2019/01/31/eight-ten-offers-unconditional-one-british-university-ucas-figures/">unconditional offers to students</a> in a bid to lessen their own serious financial struggles – which has tended to turn students into customers. And, as the labour market prospects for young people diminish, universities are marketing themselves as the most attractive in terms of “employability”. With this has come claims that grade inflation is rife and that <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-too-many-graduates-getting-good-degrees-91181">too many students are</a> being awarded top grades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259114/original/file-20190214-1754-1oxz0a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than £16 billion is loaned to around one million students in England each year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/files/8438799/Examining_the_Construct_Validity.pdf">Academics are also struggling</a>. Primarily to blame are increased workloads, many academics in higher and further education work on average more than <a href="https://www.ucu.org.uk/workloadcampaign">two unpaid days each week</a> – working unpaid weekends and evenings and missing out on holiday to get the job done. Academics are also more easily dispensable than ever before, with cheaper replacements – such as hourly paid <a href="https://theconversation.com/zero-hour-contracts-are-turning-university-lecturers-off-the-job-74949">postgrads desperate for a foot in the door</a>. </p>
<h2>A National Education Service</h2>
<p>Previous attempts to address the emerging crisis have actually created more competition — as was the case with previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/goves-revolution-leaves-behind-a-fast-food-education-system-29190">education secretary Michael Gove</a>, who <a href="http://www.jceps.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/14-3-1-1.pdf">reloaded</a> a distinctly <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDYBBISRo-o">neoliberal</a> rather than progressive education policy agenda.</p>
<p>There has never been a revolution of the whole education system in England, but this is the ambition for Jeremy Corbyn’s <a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/education/">National Education Service</a> (NES), that would mirror the NHS. The idea is to radically change the structure and ethos of education – which is currently stratified and differentiated mainly by social class – by creating a new system that is universal and free at every level: “cradle-to-grave”.<a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/education/"> Labour also pledges</a> to introduce free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees.</p>
<p>The new service would aim to foster a collaborative ethos through a structure that designates institutions as partners rather than competitors. This would happen within and across all stages and levels of education. It would replicate something like the <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20141105213955/https://www.ofsted.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/surveys-and-good-practice/l/London%20Challenge.pdf">London Challenge model</a> which successfully <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-londons-secondary-schools-have-improved-so-much-28531">improved</a> schools in London by encouraging them to learn from each other and work together. </p>
<h2>Equality and fairness</h2>
<p>Instead of focusing on metrics, with threats of punitive consequences, educators should be encouraged to co-construct a localised curriculum and engage in research and development – with sufficient time to do so. These are the cornerstones of the highly successful <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/sep/20/grammar-schools-play-europe-top-education-system-finland-daycare">Finnish model of education</a>. For the Finns, there is no crisis of recruitment and retention, instead, teachers are valued, <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-teachers-in-finland-have-more-autonomy-48371">autonomous</a> and have an esteemed professional status. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259103/original/file-20190214-1745-rwr7ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With no inspections, tests, uniforms or fees, Finland’s education system is ranked among the best in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, <a href="https://www.tes.com/news/national-education-service-good-principle">financing a National Education Service</a> is the critical challenge. But politics is about choices and education needs to be viewed as a national priority – a greater share of GDP needs to be allocated to educating the generations, rather than other (vanity and legacy) political projects. A change in the taxation system would help to move the country <a href="https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/education/">towards a National Education Service</a>. </p>
<p>Ultimately, a society and education system that is built around principles of equality and fairness is what the country should be aiming for. And for this to happen, deep structural change is necessary. Whether Labour’s National Education Service would be the change many have been waiting for remains to be seen. But one thing’s for sure, it’s a step in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111555/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alpesh Maisuria is a member of UCU, Labour, and Momentum.</span></em></p>Children in England are among the most tested and unhappiest in the western world.Alpesh Maisuria, Senior Lecturer in Education Studies, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104542019-01-30T13:30:09Z2019-01-30T13:30:09ZNo wonder fox hunting is still prevalent – the ban is designed to fail British wildlife<p>Despite overwhelming public opposition and a longstanding ban, fox hunting shows <a href="https://www.league.org.uk/news/eight-reports-of-kills-by-fox-hunts-since-boxing-day">no signs of abating</a> in the UK. The 2018 hunt season alone saw <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hunts-illegal-hundreds-autumn-season-figures-animal-rights-hunting-ban-england-wales-a8286336.html">550 reports of illegal hunting</a>, though these figures only represent known incidents. </p>
<p>In 2014 it was found that <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/countryside/11313805/250000-people-turn-out-to-support-Boxing-Day-hunts.html">250,000 fox hunters attended Boxing Day hunts</a> across the UK. In 2019, so far, at least <a href="https://www.league.org.uk/news/greene-king-urged-to-ban-fox-hunt-meets">21 foxes have been killed by the hunt and 151 incidents</a> of illegal hunting have been reported since the season began on November 1.</p>
<p>The Hunting Act, which prohibited hunting foxes and wild mammals with dogs, was approved by the UK’s parliament in 2003 with <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1846577.stm">362 MPs in favour and 156 against</a>. The following year it became law. In 2017, the British people were surveyed on whether they continue to support the ban on fox hunting and the result was resounding – the highest margin ever recorded on the matter - <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/attitudes-hunting-2017">85% thought fox hunting should remain prohibited</a>.</p>
<p>So if the ban is entering its 15th year, why is fox hunting still happening?</p>
<h2>A legal let-down</h2>
<p>This question is answered in the Hunting Act itself, particularly the manner in which it “outlaws” fox hunting. <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/37/section/1">Article 1</a> states that a “person commits an offence if he hunts a wild mammal with a dog”. But the provision continues: “Unless his hunting is exempt.”</p>
<p>Herein lies the deceit of the Hunting Act, for it lists a total of nine reasons <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/37/schedule/1">a hunt may flout the general ban</a>. One of the more commonly invoked exemptions maintains that it is legal to hunt foxes if they pose a danger to livestock, game, crops or fisheries. As such, fox hunting advocates would have us believe that Roald Dahl’s tale of Fantastic Mr Fox and his endeavours to outwit farmers is all too common a curse in rural communities. </p>
<p>This remains nothing more than a smokescreen to defy the ban. Research has shown that foxes naturally control rabbit populations that if left unchecked, would <a href="https://www.gwct.org.uk/research/long-term-monitoring/national-gamebag-census/mammal-bags-comprehensive-overviews/interpretation-of-ngc-trends-rabbit/">cause significant economic harm to farmers</a>. The UK government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) also advises against controlling foxes, and instead favours strengthening protection around livestock to <a href="https://www.discoverwildlife.com/people/do-we-really-need-to-control-foxes-in-the-uk/">guard against natural predation</a>.</p>
<p>Another commonly used exemption exploits a loophole around flushing foxes out to help birds of prey hunt. This has seen fox hunters disguising their true intentions by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p06w6r99">taking birds of prey along with them</a> without ever letting them loose. </p>
<p>There is also the dubious practise of <a href="http://www.countryside-alliance.org/countryside-alliance-guide-trail-hunting/">“manufactured” trail hunting</a> in which hounds are supposed to follow an artificial scent trail with no animal chased or killed. In reality, hunt organisers use actual fox scent and lay routes deliberately close to where foxes are known to live, meaning they quickly become the subject of a hunt. Trail hunting is again an attempt to <a href="https://www.league.org.uk/trail-hunting">hide the true intentions of those that wish to continue fox hunting</a>.</p>
<p>Monitoring and gathering accurate information on all this to help prosecute offenders is a dangerous task, with members of the public often exposed to <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/fox-hunting-uk-britain-mobs-driving-communities-apart-a7948516.html">insults, intimidation and threats</a> from hunters.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z5yw-heybH8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The inadequate Hunting Act and the nefarious practises of hunt organisers mean fox hunting endures in England and Wales. Scotland too, offers no refuge for foxes and the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2002/6/contents">Protection of Wild Mammals Act 2002</a> provides similar loopholes that allow hunting to continue.</p>
<p>Setting aside the cruelty of fox hunting, evidence from the Breeding Bird Survey suggests red fox numbers have <a href="https://www.bto.org/volunteer-surveys/bbs/latest-results/mammal-monitoring">declined by 41% since 1995</a>. Introducing a complete hunting ban is more essential than ever to protect the UK’s foxes.</p>
<h2>A fox-centric approach</h2>
<p>The Hunting Act has humans as its focus by specifying how people can bend the law’s provisions to their circumstances. Despite its prevalence in much of environmental law, this human-centric idea is entirely the wrong approach. Any future legislative efforts need to place foxes, and other mammals, at the centre of legislation.</p>
<p>Foxes must be protected for their own right, and a blanket ban on hunting, absent any exemptions, is the only way to safeguard populations. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-fox-hunting-illegal-prison-sentences-boxing-day-hunt-sue-hayman-hounds-a8698871.html">Severe penalties must also be included</a>, to ensure that those already willing to flout the law will rethink their actions.</p>
<p>The likelihood of such a move materialising during this parliament is slim, however. Prime Minister Theresa May offered a free vote to repeal the Hunting Act during the 2017 election but <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/07/theresa-may-drops-manifesto-promise-to-allow-foxhunting-vote">withdrew the pledge after her disastrous election result</a>.</p>
<p>It’s essential that campaigns for stronger anti-hunting laws highlight how widespread resistance to diluting the ban is. The failures of the existing ban endanger foxes and betray the wishes of a majority of the public. Any update to the Hunting Act must crack down on those who think they are above the law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ash Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fox hunting has been banned in the UK since 2004 – so why is it still happening?Ash Murphy, PhD Researcher, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048862018-11-15T22:38:22Z2018-11-15T22:38:22ZLet’s create climate policy that will survive elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244168/original/file-20181106-74760-3281a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks at an anti-carbon-tax rally in Calgary, in October 2018. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The election of Ontario Premier Doug Ford has brought major changes to the province’s climate change file. His government has scrapped Ontario’s cap-and-trade program and has vowed to fight a federally imposed carbon tax. But he has yet to unveil his climate plan.</p>
<p>For those of us with an interest in climate policy, these choices are difficult to understand. And yet they should not be a surprise. Indeed, politicians continue to showcase their clear reluctance to accept climate change and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-award-recognizes-how-economic-forces-can-fight-climate-change-104520">economic modelling</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-metro-morning-1.4573467">March 2018 interview with CBC</a>, Ford said he “absolutely, to a certain degree” trusted climate science. That’s better than Goldie Ghamari, now the member of provincial parliament for Ottawa-Carleton, who <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-goldie-ghamari-climate-change-1.4675687">publicly rejected the science</a> and then won by nearly 30 points.</p>
<p>The unwillingness to act on climate change partly reflects the political divide in Canada. A 2018 Abacus Data poll showed <a href="https://ecofiscal.ca/reports/polling-results-perceptions-carbon-pricing-canada/">79 per cent of those on the left, but only 41 per cent of those on the right, trusted the idea that humans were the cause of our warming planet</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-conservatives-are-blind-to-climate-change-91549">Why some conservatives are blind to climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Rigorous research on climate change opinions in 56 countries showed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2943">political orientations and ideologies are more powerful forces than education, gender and experience with extreme weather</a>. The real-life conclusion? It’s difficult to overcome partisanship’s impact in shaping continued climate denial and inaction.</p>
<h2>Wind energy bias</h2>
<p>My own <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518305755">recent research</a> investigated whether similar political divides applied to wind energy developments in Canada. Our team looked at how partisanship and political discourse shaped public opinions of local wind energy in Ontario and Nova Scotia from 2014 to 2015. </p>
<p>We expected support to fall more or less in line with left-to-right patterns of environmentalism: those on the left would support wind farms and those on the right would not. </p>
<p>Instead we found that in Ontario, the split occurred between those who backed the government (Liberal), which supported wind developments, and those who stood behind one of the opposition parties (New Democratic Party and Progressive Conservatives). </p>
<p>The Ontario residents surveyed were three times more likely to oppose local turbines than those in Nova Scotia. One Ontario resident said a local member of provincial parliament had been elected on a platform to “stop the turbines.” </p>
<p>The fact that residents who aligned themselves with the NDP and PC parties opposed local turbines says something about the way the Liberals presided over major turbine developments. </p>
<p>Nova Scotia, on the other hand, saw no significant divide. Non-partisan support for wind energy was driven by the fact that Conservatives had brought forward wind energy in the first place. As one policy expert stated, it was difficult for subsequent NDP and Liberal governments to oppose such progressive policies, and thus renewable energy never was “really an election issue.” </p>
<h2>Policy breeds opposition</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961730124X">My past research</a> shows that wind-energy development can suffer from a lack of fairness when it comes to local decision-making and who benefits financially. In both provinces, not having control over the outcome led to opposition to wind energy.</p>
<p>In Ontario, the list of “<a href="http://ontario-wind-resistance.org/not-a-willing-host/">unwilling host communities</a>” continues to grow. At last count, the number was 90.</p>
<p>This anti-wind sentiment has influenced the past three Ontario elections, including this year’s. The election of Ford’s majority government in June led to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/758-renewable-energy-cancelled-1.4746293">cancellation of 758 renewable energy projects</a> and the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-government-moves-to-scrap-green-energy-act-2/">dismantling of the Green Energy Act</a>.</p>
<p>And while the cancellation of renewable energy projects constrains our ability to attract green businesses, the Conservatives are correct that the Green Energy Act <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26256490?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">silenced community voices</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 44-turbine wind farm near Port Alma, Ont., near the shores of Lake Erie in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Dave Chidley)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Almost a decade ago, former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/new-law-will-keep-nimby-ism-from-stopping-green-projects-ont-premier-1.805978">touted the legislation</a> as a way to stop the “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) attitudes that he saw as the major impediment to wind energy acceptance. This approach only helped fuel what has become well-organized, anti-wind coalitions in Ontario. </p>
<h2>A long-term, low-carbon pathway</h2>
<p>So where do we go from here? Should we learn to live with the dismantling of climate policy when those on the right are elected? </p>
<p>Places like Nova Scotia and Texas show there are alternatives. In the Lone Star State, politicians and residents of right-leaning, wind-turbine communities have embraced low-carbon energy. Republicans there fight for wind turbines because of economic benefits and the promise of low-cost energy for the future. </p>
<p>A compromise between poorly designed renewable-energy policy and a complete lack thereof can exist. This “middle ground” can be found via the promotion of community-based and <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-carbon-taxes-we-need-wholescale-energy-transitions-105612">Indigenous ownership structures that promote autonomy and keep financial benefits in the pockets of nearby residents</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-carbon-taxes-we-need-wholescale-energy-transitions-105612">More than carbon taxes, we need wholescale energy transitions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Given the power of partisanship in our current political climate, environmental policies must work within existing socio-political settings. These policies need to stress <a href="https://theenergymix.com/2018/05/09/renewables-created-10-3-million-jobs-worldwide-in-2016-could-hit-28-million-by-2050/">the jobs</a> and <a href="https://theenergymix.com/2018/09/11/climate-action-in-cities-could-create-13-7-million-jobs-prevent-1-3-million-premature-deaths/">improvements in public health</a> that come with them. </p>
<p>If governments truly want their initiatives to last, they need to appeal to the entire political spectrum. Conservatives were able to achieve this in Nova Scotia, when they took leadership in renewable energy. Where and when the left is in power, they must keep in mind how the right may find fault. </p>
<p>We need bold climate policy. If its long-term viability is blown down by changing political winds, its effectiveness will be short lived.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-cities-sick-and-we-need-to-act-78447">Climate change is making cities sick and we need to act</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We don’t have to look too far to see examples of where this approach could be applied. Justin Trudeau and his federal carbon tax may be “Exhibit A.” Major policy shifts on electric vehicle adoption, high-speed rail and transformations in renewable energy will follow. </p>
<p>As we were reminded by the United Nations in October, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">the clock is ticking when it comes to climate action</a>, and education alone will not change the minds of the voting public. I hope politicians are listening, so that the outcome of the next election is more climate-friendly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chad Walker has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada as well as from the George C. Metcalfe Foundation to study wind energy policy and development outcomes in Ontario and Nova Scotia. He is currently part of a team at Queen's University working with Indigenous community partners that was awarded a Canadian Institutes of Health Research grant to study strength and autonomy through renewable energy development. </span></em></p>In order to address a warming planet over the medium and long-term, climate policy must be designed to be adaptable and indeed attractive to those across the political spectrum.Chad Walker, Postdoctoral Fellow, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1010322018-08-13T05:49:17Z2018-08-13T05:49:17Z‘Conservative turn’ will continue in Indonesian presidential election next year<p>The recent announcement of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s running mate in his re-election bid suggests the continued strong influence of conservative groups over politics in the world’s largest Muslim population.</p>
<p>A pluralist and nationalist figure, Jokowi picked Ma'ruf Amin, a conservative Muslim cleric, as his vice-presidential candidate. </p>
<p>By chosing Ma'ruf, Jokowi aims to appeal to a growing Islamist constituency that has dominated the national political landscape. His decision may further accommodate the rise of conservative groups in Indonesia’s Muslim politics. </p>
<h2>The political background</h2>
<p>Compared to previous Indonesian general elections, religion, especially Islam, has increasingly played a major role in national politics.</p>
<p>We have witnessed how political actors used the Islam card to win votes in the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017. </p>
<p>Politicians formed a movement to defend Islam and called it the “212 Movement” – from the date of the rally, December 2. They demanded the Chinese and Christian Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama be ousted from the Jakarta governorship and be imprisoned for blasphemy. </p>
<p>The movement’s strategy to use ethnic and religious sentiments to turn Jakarta voters against Ahok was very <a href="https://theconversation.com/jakarta-governor-election-results-in-a-victory-for-prejudice-over-pluralism-76388">effective</a>. </p>
<p>Because of this, its organisers, the National Movement to Guard Ulama’s Religious Edicts (GNPF Ulama) and the Islam Defenders Front (FPI), have become a force to be reckoned with in the 2019 presidential election.</p>
<h2>Anti-Jokowi</h2>
<p>Immediately after their success in ousting Ahok, 212 Movement alumni made it clear they were opposed to Jokowi. </p>
<p>The groups have been attacking Jokowi for his “anti-Islamic” policies. This includes <a href="https://news.detik.com/berita/3990865/permintaan-pa-212-jokowi-hentikan-kriminalisasi-ulama">prosecuting ulemas</a> and developing infrastructure projects that do not help poor Muslims. </p>
<p>These Islamist activists have been promoting a social media campaign, organised by opposition parties Gerindra and the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), calling for a new president in 2019. The campaign goes with the hashtag <a href="http://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/co18130-2019-indonesian-presidential-election-the-2019changepresident-campaign-tightening-the-screws/">#2019GantiPresiden</a> (#2019ChangePresident) campaign.</p>
<p>Another key player in the 212 Movement is FPI. <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-of-Protection-Rackets-in-Post-New-Order-Indonesia-Coercive/Wilson/p/book/9780415569125">FPI</a> was a hardline Islamic organisation, backed by the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI), that carried out acts of thuggery against groups and establishments deemed “un-Islamic”, such as bars and nightclubs and religious minorities. But it has changed into an Islamist organisation with a political agenda. FPI wants to change the Indonesian state into an <a href="https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/co17228-islamic-defenders-front-an-ideological-evolution/">Islamic state</a> enshrined with Islamic principles. </p>
<p>FPI <a href="http://wap.mi.baca.co.id/23299964?origin=relative&pageId=a42bf080-f1dd-4c8c-9794-a4c18b1716dc&PageIndex=0#list">has long demanded</a> that an ideal presidential ticket should consist of an Islamic leader and a secular nationalist politician, preferably from the TNI. </p>
<p>By having this combination, the conservative group hopes to gain support from the nationalists and TNI to create a more Islamic Indonesian society. This would <a href="http://www.insideindonesia.org/islam-and-citizenship-3">exclude non-Muslims</a> from elected offices and the public sector in general.</p>
<p>As FPI involves itself more in politics and less in criminal and violent activities, more Indonesian Muslims find its activities acceptable. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10357823.2018.1473335">study</a> found that during one of the anti-Ahok rallies in November 2016, 22.6% of Indonesian Muslims had a favourable view of FPI, compared to just 16.6% in July 2011.</p>
<p>An Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) <a href="https://news.detik.com/berita/4119173/survei-lsi-pro-pancasila-turun-10-pro-nkri-bersyariah-naik-9">study</a> found support among Indonesian Muslims for changing Indonesia into an Islamic state increased from 4.6% in 2005 to 13.2% this year. </p>
<p>Besides FPI’s growing popularity, Jokowi is also troubled by the fact that his opponents – backed by conservative Muslim groups – scored several victories during last June’s regional elections. </p>
<p>For instance, they won the North Sumatra governorship by deploying the same ethno-religious sentiments to attack another candidate, Djarot Saiful Hidayat. Djarot is a former Jakarta deputy governor to Ahok. </p>
<p>The conservative group almost <a href="https://regional.kompas.com/read/2018/06/28/18581961/gerindra-klaim-sudrajat-ahmad-syaikhu-juara-pilkada-jawa-barat-2018">won</a> the gubernatorial election in West Java, one of the most crucial areas in the national election. </p>
<p>The eventual winner, Ridwan Kamil, was initially known as a pluralist and moderate politician. But, to secure his victory, he had to make <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_42@50.pdf.">overtures towards conservative Islamists</a>.</p>
<p>Jokowi and his advisers clearly had these troubling political trends in mind when preparing for his re-election campaign. That’s why he picked a running mate who is acceptable among conservative Islamic groups to draw their support for his re-election bid.</p>
<h2>Jokowi and his Islam card</h2>
<p>Jokowi won the 2014 presidential election with an image of a pluralist and moderate Islamic figure. </p>
<p>For his next presidential campaign, however, Jokowi has no choice but to <a href="http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/07/11/indonesias-presidential-hopefuls-will-need-to-brandish-their-islamic-credentials/">bolster his own Islamic credentials</a>. </p>
<p>The Jokowi campaign team has clearly calculated that Islamist groups from the “212 Movement” are the primary stumbling block for his re-election.</p>
<p>Hence, it came as no surprise that Jokowi <a href="https://news.detik.com/berita/4158601/jokowi-deklarasi-maruf-amin-jadi-cawapres#">chose</a> Ma’ruf Amin, the chairman of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), as his vice-presidential nominee. </p>
<p>By nominating Ma’ruf, Jokowi hopes to split the Islamist opposition, especially from GNPF Ulama and other 212 Movement alumni. </p>
<p>These groups deeply respect Ma'ruf, as he gave religious legitimacy to the 212 Movement. Under his watch, MUI <a href="https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3318150/mui-nyatakan-sikap-soal-ucapan-ahok-terkait-al-maidah-51-ini-isinya">issued a religious opinion (<em>fatwa</em>)</a> declaring Ahok a blasphemer. </p>
<p>Ma’ruf was also a key player behind two controversial MUI <em>fatwa</em> (edicts) in 2005. One <em><a href="http://mui.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/12b.-Penjelasan-Tentang-Fatwa-Pluralisme-Liberalisme-dan-Se.pdf.">fatwa</a></em> targets liberal and secular influences within Islam, including the Liberal Islam Network (JIL).</p>
<p>Another <em>fatwa</em> targets the <a href="https://e-dokumen.kemenag.go.id/files/fmpbnNCJ1286170246.pdf">Ahmadi</a> minorities. Following the fatwa, violent attacks and persecution against the Ahmadi group <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2013/02/28/religions-name/abuses-against-religious-minorities-indonesia">increased</a>. </p>
<p>So far, Jokowi’s strategy to split the support of conservative Islamist groups seems to be working. The GNPF ulama has welcomed Ma'ruf’s nomination. The group calls it a “<a href="https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4158702/gnpf-ulama-pilih-maruf-amin-jokowi-lebih-cerdas">very smart decision</a>”.</p>
<p>With Ma'ruf as his running mate, Jokowi now <a href="https://kumparan.com/@kumparannews/ma-ruf-amin-sindir-prabowo-katanya-hormati-ulama-tapi-wakilnya-bukan-1533814983435185295">claims</a> that “he is a leader who respect the ulama’s demands”. He is showing he is a true Islamic leader. </p>
<p>Jokowi’s coalition also claims that many 212 Movement alumni can now <a href="https://www.viva.co.id/berita/politik/1063461-ppp-klaim-alumni-212-dukung-jokowi-gara-gara-ma-ruf-amin">support</a> his re-election bid, since he now has as his running mate an ulama that supports the movement. </p>
<h2>The rise of conservative turn</h2>
<p>Ma’ruf’s selection also means that to win votes Indonesian politicians continue to accommodate Islamist groups that are pushing for a “<a href="https://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg/publication/1806">conservative turn</a>”. </p>
<p>Jokowi’s move to be closer to Islamic groups has alienated some former supporters. <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180810185747-32-321370/kecewa-maruf-amin-cawapres-jokowi-pendukung-ahok-terbelah">Disappointed by Jokowi’s selection of Ma'ruf</a>, some Jokowi supporters who come from a non-Muslim Chinese Indonesian background have <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180810185747-32-321370/kecewa-maruf-amin-cawapres-jokowi-pendukung-ahok-terbelah">threatened</a> to “be absent from voting or even vote for Prabowo” to express their displeasure.</p>
<p>In the long run, the conservatives’ continued prominence in the country’s politics might endanger Indonesia’s long-term status as a secular and democratic country. As enshrined in the national ideology <em>Pancasila</em> and the 1945 Indonesian Constitution, Indonesia must guarantee equality for all citizens irrespective of their ethnic or religious backgrounds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander R Arifianto tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Ma’ruf Amin’s selection as Joko Widodo’s running mate in his re-election bid means that politicians continue to accommodate the conservative turn among Indonesian Islamic groups to win votes.Alexander R Arifianto, Research Fellow, Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/911822018-02-20T12:17:44Z2018-02-20T12:17:44ZWhat you need to know about the tuition fee review — and how it could affect students<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206974/original/file-20180219-116365-lo3x52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">England has one of the most expensive systems of university tuition in the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?src=gTAO4cBRXOHO6m29yTWV7g-1-67">shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The long awaited <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-launches-major-review-of-post-18-education">review of funding</a> across the whole of English higher and further education has been announced by Theresa May – signalling changes to undergraduate fees and loans (again). </p>
<p>The review fulfils a commitment made in the <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto">2017 Conservative manifeso</a> and can be seen as a move by the prime minister to assert her authority over education policy now her new team is in place following the recent <a href="https://theConversation.com/is-that-it-how-theresa-may-fumbled-her-cabinet-reshuffle-89877">reshuffle</a>.</p>
<p>The government is frustrated nearly all university courses now cost £9,250 a year and wants to encourage some sort of variation in fees. Interviewed in the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/education-secretary-damian-hinds-students-to-get-cheaper-places-at-university-htqxq326z">Sunday Times</a>, the new education secretary, Damian Hinds, said the fees for a degree course should reflect: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>A combination of three things: the cost (to the university) to put it on, the benefit to the student and the benefit to our country and our economy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This approach would produce <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-43075769">variable fees</a>, with arts and social science courses being cheaper. <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-students-pay-different-fees-for-university-courses-63384">Australia already has fee bands</a> – with law, medicine, accounting and economics subjects in the highest fee band, and nursing and humanities among the lowest. “National priority” subjects – such as mathematics and sciences – have been charged at an ever lower, subsidised rate.</p>
<p>While there may be some logic to varying fees for different subjects, a model along these lines would create endless disputes. Similarly, a model based on graduate earnings would only serve to reinforce the idea that the only benefits of a degree (to the graduate and to the country) are economic.</p>
<h2>Why do we need a review?</h2>
<p>The review is unlikely to develop new funding models, rather it will help the government choose which they think is best. There are various ways of funding undergraduate education – and many have already been tried or proposed. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-graduates-will-never-pay-off-their-student-loans-80582">current system</a>, students can take out loans to cover their fees and living costs. Repayments of 9% of their salary start when they earn £21,000 (rising to £25,000 from April).</p>
<p>Advocates of this model, such <a href="https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/02/david-willetts-even-marx-agrees-that-corbyns-approach-to-higher-education-funding-is-unfair.html">Lord David Willets</a>, argue that a graduate only pays for their education when they are benefiting from higher earnings – so fees should not put anyone off going to university. But some groups, such as <a href="https://www.suttontrust.com/newsarchive/18000-fewer-mature-students-apply-university-since-fees-increase/">mature students</a>, are discouraged from applying by the current price tag. </p>
<p>Before this system, a means-tested fee model operated in England between 1998 and 2005. This meant a student’s fee level was based on their parents’ income. The fees were capped at £1,000 but there were no student loans available for fees. At the time, although a third of students paid nothing, this was perceived as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/dec/04/students.money">abolition of free education</a>. But university <a href="http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/university-fees-in-historical-perspective">fees weren’t actually new</a>. From 1962, students from wealthier families paid fees as part of the then new <a href="http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP97-119/RP97-119.pdf">students grants system</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206977/original/file-20180219-116337-1xkj7eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Theresa May has announced an independent review of fees and student finance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?src=hAgR1oYqoTECMD6ykXCWVw-1-77">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Liberal Democrat leader <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sir-vince-cable-reveals-plans-to-replace-student-fees-with-tax-a3634761.html">Vince Cable</a> has endorsed the option to replace fees with a “graduate tax”. Advocates of this idea argue it would reduce the amount younger people pay, double the amount of money currently raised for the treasury and <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/ioe/news-events/news-pub/sep-2017/ioe-academics-propose-graduate-tax-replace-tuition-fees">end inter-generational unfairness</a>.</p>
<p>The current Labour policy is to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-each-party-manifesto-means-for-student-voters-78634">abolish undergraduate fees</a> completely. But this option has already been ruled out by the Conservatives. </p>
<h2>What about universities?</h2>
<p>There are no guarantees universities will be fully compensated for the money lost through a reduction or abolition of fees. </p>
<p>This is because when higher education is funded through general public spending, it typically loses out to compulsory education. This has been true in the UK historically, and is the case in <a href="https://theconversation.com/short-sighted-budget-means-universities-cant-deliver-their-full-economic-benefit-77474">Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Universities cannot be sure that all the money raised through a graduate tax will find its way to them either. So university leaders are worried about a return to the previous situation where higher education was not as well funded at it is today.</p>
<h2>Reforming the system</h2>
<p>Perhaps the problem then isn’t the current system, but how it has been implemented. But it could easily be modified – a simple move would be to reduce the headline fee. <a href="https://londoneconomics.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LE-Student-support-modelling-13-02-2018.pdf">London Economics</a> looked into the reduction of fees to £6,000 and found it would cost the government £1.169 billion – assuming universities received the same funding after the cut. </p>
<p>But the previous education secretary, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/feb/18/cutting-tuition-fees-would-backfire-justine-greening-warns-theresa-may?CMP=share_btn_link">Justine Greening, has cautioned against cutting fees</a>, arguing it could harm social mobility. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207066/original/file-20180220-116351-133n8pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Theresa May hopes to end ‘outdated attitudes’ that favour universities over technical education.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?src=aOR9kL7Gj4xLPr801iunWA-1-9">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The current system would also be viewed more favourably if the interest charged on the loans was reduced – something <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/treasury-committee/news-parliament-2017/student-loans-report-published-17-19/">recommended by the Treasury Committee of MPs</a>. The system would also receive a boost in popularity if maintenance grants were reintroduced – this would prevent poorer students graduating with the largest debts.</p>
<h2>The vocational option</h2>
<p>The strong emphasis on technical and vocational education in the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-the-right-education-for-everyone">prime minister’s speech</a> may also lead to more employer sponsored routes. This could be based on the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apprenticeship-levy-how-it-will-work/apprenticeship-levy-how-it-will-work">Apprenticeship Levy</a>, and might help reduce the funding gap universities fear. And it has been <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/07/25/employers-should-help-shoulder-cost-student-tuition-fees%20benefit%20from%20hiring%20graduates%20sponsorship">argued</a> that because employers benefit from the knowledge and skills graduates bring, they should contribute to the cost of their studies.</p>
<p>The various options will be explored by a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-post-18-education-and-funding-terms-of-reference">review group</a> who will finish their work in early 2019, so any changes will not affect students going to university this year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gunn has received funding from Worldwide Universities Network, the British Council (administering the Newton Fund), the UK Higher Education Academy, Kantar Public, UEFISCDI Romania, the UK Political Studies Association, the New Zealand Political Studies Association and the UK Quality Assurance Agency. Andrew Gunn concurrently holds visiting academic positions internationally.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Carasso has received funding for research through an ESRC research centre.</span></em></p>Theresa May is under pressure to tackle tuition fees after Labour’s pledge to scrap them was highlighted as a key issue for young voters.Andrew Gunn, Researcher in Higher Education Policy, University of LeedsHelen Carasso, Course Leader - MSc in Higher Education Policy, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.