tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/crowd-safety-6148/articlesCrowd safety – The Conversation2023-11-24T00:20:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183412023-11-24T00:20:59Z2023-11-24T00:20:59ZTaylor Swift’s Brazil concert was hammered by extreme heat. How to protect crowds at the next sweltering gig<p>Electrifying music concerts and other mass events are increasingly under threat from severe weather events, such as extreme heat.</p>
<p>The tragic <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-22/heatwave-humidity-warnings-follow-brazil-taylor-swift-fan-death/103132476">incident</a> at a Taylor Swift concert in Brazil recently, which resulted in the death of one fan, is a stark reminder of what can happen.</p>
<p>The concert took place in a stadium during a heatwave. Fans lined up for hours outside the Rio de Janeiro venue, with temperatures reportedly over 40°C. With the high humidity, this would have felt like almost 60°C, according to a measure known as the “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/heatindex#:%7E:text=The%20heat%20index%2C%20also%20known,for%20the%20human%20body%27s%20comfort.">heat index</a>”.</p>
<p>As well as the fatality, fans <a href="https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/music/tours/taylor-swift-concert-goers-struck-with-seconddegree-burns/news-story/e1a597d52f642c46c1a8f45b5c816fdb">reported</a> burns after touching hot metal floors and railings.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-is-landing-more-australians-in-hospital-and-heat-is-the-biggest-culprit-216440">Extreme weather is landing more Australians in hospital – and heat is the biggest culprit</a>
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<h2>There have been other similar events</h2>
<p>What happened at the Swift concert is the consequence of insufficient preparation for extreme weather conditions during a large-scale event. However, this is not an isolated case. There is a <a href="https://www.billboard.com/lists/concerts-affected-climate-change-2023-full-list/july-4/">long list</a> of mass gatherings and events affected by extreme weather in 2023. </p>
<p>In August, a <a href="https://variety.com/2023/music/news/beyonce-dc-metro-trains-weather-delays-renaissance-1235689650/">Beyoncé concert</a> in a Washington DC stadium took place during severe weather conditions. This time it was heavy rain and lightning. Attendees were ordered to shelter in place.</p>
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<p>Lightning posed a direct threat to their safety. Those inside the stadium were directed to shelter under covered areas and ramps. Afterwards, several fans were reportedly treated for <a href="https://wjla.com/news/local/fedex-field-shelter-in-place-beyonce-concert-renaissance-tour-weather-lightening-rain-cover-thunderstorms-sunday-performance#:%7E:text=After%20a%20shelter,Nov%202023%2011%3A50%3A08%20GMT">heat exhaustion</a>. </p>
<p>The directive to shelter in place could have led to overcrowding in covered areas, potentially increasing the risk of incidents, such as a crowd crush.</p>
<p>Another US example was <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/17-hospitalized-2-go-into-cardiac-arrest-at-ed-sheeran-concert-amid-extreme-heat/4497016/#:%7E:text=,working%20during%20the%20Ed">Ed Sheeran’s concert</a> at a Pittsburgh stadium during a July heatwave. </p>
<p>Some 17 people were hospitalised. Health emergencies included heat exhaustion and two cardiac arrests (when the heart stops beating).</p>
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<h2>We must prepare</h2>
<p>Climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and intense. So risk assessments should include detailed weather monitoring and structural assessments for outdoor set-ups to ensure shade structures, for instance, can cope with crowds.</p>
<p>Contingency plans for a rapid response are also needed. These need to include plans to supply water or protective equipment (such as plastic ponchos) and timely safety directions and information. </p>
<p>Such planning should encompass not just the likelihood of extreme weather but also its potential impact on infrastructure, crowd control and emergency medical responses.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-burning-man-to-woodstock-to-fyre-festival-what-turns-a-festival-into-a-disaster-212859">From Burning Man to Woodstock to Fyre Festival: what turns a festival into a disaster?</a>
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<h2>Artists play a role too</h2>
<p>While the primary onus of safety lies with event organisers and venues, artists can also play a significant role in public safety during extreme weather. So we need to keep them informed about identified potential risks and planned countermeasures.</p>
<p>For instance, artists can influence crowd behaviour positively and prevent catastrophic outcomes, such as a crowd crush. They can appeal for calm or can announce any planned evacuation procedures.</p>
<p>In the most recent incident, Swift <a href="https://www.insider.com/taylor-swift-crew-give-water-fans-during-hot-brazil-concert-2023-11">paused her show</a> to ask crew members to distribute water to fans.</p>
<h2>Be safety aware</h2>
<p>People who attend mass events also need to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753523002345">be aware</a> of the safety issues related to extreme weather and be prepared.</p>
<p>Public education campaigns can help, as can effectively disseminating safety information to empower attendees to make informed decisions.</p>
<p>For instance, an event organiser can send a text message to all attendees to warn of upcoming weather conditions and a reminder to bring water or wear sunscreen. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/astroworld-tragedy-heres-how-concert-organisers-can-prevent-big-crowds-turning-deadly-171397">Astroworld tragedy: here's how concert organisers can prevent big crowds turning deadly</a>
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<h2>We can expect more of these events</h2>
<p>The tragic incident at the Swift concert and similar examples are not isolated but indicate a broader trend. With climate change, extreme weather events will pose a more common risk at such mass gatherings. </p>
<p>So we need to recognise and integrate this into how we plan for, and assess the risk associated with, future events. This is vital to ensure these gatherings remain celebratory landmarks rather than avoidable disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218341/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Milad Haghani receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Grant No. DE210100440). </span></em></p>One fan died and others reported burns at the Swift concert. And we’re going to see similar incidents at future concerns if we don’t start planning for extreme weather.Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Public Safety, Disaster Resilience & Urban Mobility, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1939812022-11-10T12:13:01Z2022-11-10T12:13:01ZSeoul Halloween crush: understanding the science of crowds could help prevent disasters – here’s how<p>When I was a teenager, the 1980s felt like a decade of disasters. We watched a terrible human cost being paid live on TV in a series of football-related disasters. </p>
<p>I saw bodies stretchered away on advertising hoardings at <a href="https://theconversation.com/hillsborough-disaster-a-revealing-analysis-of-the-language-in-witness-statements-161715">Hillsborough</a> stadium in Sheffield, the back-and-forth terrace skirmishes at <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-32898612">Heysel</a> in Brussels that prefaced a fatal crush, a man walking calmly out of the burning stand at <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-61399583">Bradford</a>, his entire body ablaze. Crowd catastrophes dominated my youth. </p>
<p>Much of my work as a computer scientist has focused on modelling complex systems made up of many interacting components. These may be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/jan/06/featuresreviews.guardianreview8">DNA molecules</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/engineered-bacteria-are-helping-us-add-memory-to-living-computers-62835">bacteria in a dish</a>, social insects, or even people. </p>
<p>Decades after Hillsborough, after working at the University of Liverpool and hearing first-hand accounts of the horrors of that day, my colleagues and I turned our attention to the problem of crowd crush. Our <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0028747">first paper on this topic</a> considered how we might detect crush in computational simulations of crowds.</p>
<p>Over the past decade, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about one fundamental question: what’s wrong with our understanding of crowds? The answer, it turns out, is a lot. </p>
<p>This was highlighted, once again, by the recent tragic events on Halloween in <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/east-asia/seoul-halloween-crush-south-korea-stampede-video-b2214792.html">Seoul, South Korea</a>. The death toll stands at 156, with hundreds more injured, and the investigation is still under way. But this disaster brings several important points into sharp focus.</p>
<h2>Crowd disasters are almost always preventable</h2>
<p>South Korean authorities have already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/01/seoul-halloween-crowd-crush-south-korea-itaewon-police-response">admitted to failures</a>, but this is relatively unusual. Apart from the potential legal ramifications, it’s not always obvious who has responsibility for keeping crowds safe, as in <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/31/asia/seoul-itaewon-halloween-mourning-memorial-intl-hnk/index.html">Seoul</a>, where a crush happened outside the context of an organised event. </p>
<p>A year after the Astroworld, Texas, incident in which 10 people died, <a href="https://www.click2houston.com/news/investigates/2022/11/03/a-year-after-astroworld-festival-deaths-no-clear-answers-on-accountability/">arguments are still raging</a> about who was responsible. Although South Korea, <a href="https://www.hse.gov.uk/pubns/indg142.htm">like many other countries</a>, has guidelines for the planning and safe delivery of large events, this carries with it the assumption that there will be an identifiable organiser.</p>
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<img alt="A very busy Tokyo street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494488/original/file-20221109-21-luwui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cities are getting bigger and busier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Perati Komson/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>That wasn’t the case in South Korea. Police were deployed to perform their usual traffic, crime and public order functions, but there appears to have been no high-level plan in place to deal with a large influx of people into <a href="https://www.wunc.org/2022-10-31/heres-why-seouls-itaewon-district-was-so-packed-ahead-of-the-deadly-crowd-surge">the Itaewon district</a>, and early warning signs were either <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63481769">missed or ignored</a>. </p>
<p>Proper planning is absolutely key to public safety. Authorities need to anticipate potential risks, not just for specific events, but wherever large numbers of people are likely to gather. Calculating the safe capacity of spaces, anticipating crowd flows, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2058802X.2019.1594138">dynamically assessing the size of crowds</a> and ensuring that safe capacities aren’t exceeded on the ground are the bare minimum that should be done. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, it’s important to learn from previous incidents, and ensure that put proper plans are always in place. It will be difficult and expensive, but the cost of doing nothing is far worse. So long as people want to gather in large numbers, there will be risks, and we cannot afford the luxury of simply hoping for the best. </p>
<h2>Inaccurate language causes problems</h2>
<p>Many media outlets automatically referred to the incident as a “<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/at-least-120-dead-after-stampede-during-halloween-festivities-in-itaewon-south-korea-12733277">stampede</a>”. This is one of the most persistent misunderstandings about the crowd. It brings to mind a herd of animals, and we’re almost conditioned into thinking that when a crowd disaster happens, it’s because people panic and trample on others in a desperate race to escape from something. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2022.2049622">But that hardly ever happens</a>. Stampede is a massively problematic term, both because it’s inaccurate, and because it implies that victims are somehow to blame. And it contributes to the ongoing “panic” myth that crowds are somehow “<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/crowd-control/">mad, bad, and dangerous to know</a>”.</p>
<h2>Life’s becoming more urban</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s likely that another disaster on the scale of Seoul will happen in the near future. As life becomes increasingly urbanised, we need to understand the crowd more than ever. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565271">Some projections</a> claim that, by 2030, 60% of the world’s population will live in cities. Already a commuter nation the size of Sweden and Portugal combined flows in and out of Tokyo <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1317406/japan-commuter-number-by-greater-metropolitan-area/">every working day</a>. </p>
<p>As more people move into cities, we will have to think hard about how people move around and how they should be safely managed. Urban design and planning processes already embed insights from crowd science but, more broadly, societies also need a much more integrated approach to crowd management.</p>
<p>We need to understand groups of people as complex, dynamical systems made up of human “parts” interacting with one another and with their environment, and move beyond the tired narratives of “mob”, “stampede” and “panic” that unfortunately still dominate discussions of crowds. This will require further support for an inter-disciplinary approach that draws on physics, computer science, social psychology, sociology, criminology, policing and politics. </p>
<p>Our wider society needs to understand crowds much more deeply, in terms of how they work on a social level, how they can make our cities more enjoyable places to live, and how they can bring with them resilience, security, and improvements in wellbeing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martyn Amos has previously received funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council for a project on enhanced evacuation drills. </span></em></p>A better understanding of how crowds work is vital as more of the world’s population move to cities.Martyn Amos, Professor of Computer and Information Sciences, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1917562022-10-03T04:06:31Z2022-10-03T04:06:31ZOne of the worst stadium tragedies in history: an expert explains what led to the soccer stampede in Indonesia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487691/original/file-20221003-59229-c8p206.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C520%2C5919%2C3368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yudha Prabowo/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At least 125 soccer fans have died in Indonesia, and more than 300 have been injured, in what is being reported as one of the worst sports stadium tragedies in history. </p>
<p>The disaster happened on Saturday night at the Kanjuruhan stadium in Malang, East Java. Up to 3,000 fans <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/indonesia-football-fans-killed-east-java-arema-malang">reportedly</a> streamed onto the pitch following a Premier League game in which Persebaya Surabaya defeated Javanese club Arema 3-2.</p>
<p>Disappointed with the loss, Arema supporters threw bottles and other objects at players and officials before storming the pitch – which eventually led to a deadly stampede. Video footage shows authorities firing tear gas, and armed with batons and shields as they chased fans in an effort to restore order.</p>
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<p>I’m an expert on crowd safety, with a specific focus on how to boost safety at large events, including sporting tournaments. Like most tragedies of this nature, the events in Malang appear to tie into a common thread. </p>
<h2>What went wrong</h2>
<p>News outlets have reported Saturday’s event was filled beyond capacity. According to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/indonesia-football-fans-killed-east-java-arema-malang">The Guardian</a>, Indonesia’s chief security minister said 42,000 tickets had been issued for a stadium that holds a maximum of 38,000.</p>
<p>In such a densely packed venue, police’s decision to use tear gas would have only escalated an already confusing and chaotic situation. </p>
<p>Also, the Kanjuruhan stadium only has one exit (which is also the entry). In competitive sporting environments, crowds already have heightened emotions. So it’s not difficult to see how a frenzied crowd rushing through a single exit could lead to death and injury. </p>
<p>These lessons have been learnt previously with the 1989 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_disaster">Hillsborough</a> disaster and the 2010 Love Parade <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade_disaster">disaster</a> (to name a few) – where a combination of police actions, poor communication, and poor access and egress for patrons has ended in tragedy.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Officers examine a damaged police vehicle in a soccer stadium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Cars were destroyed and torched amid the chaos, which local reports say spilled over to outside the stadium.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yudha Prabowo/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Could this tragedy have been avoided?</h2>
<p>Yes – and a few techniques can be used to ensure it does not happen again. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://vuir.vu.edu.au/37132/3/event%20design%20in%20outdoor%20music%20festival.pdft*">research</a> has shown lighting up a stadium to let the audience know the show is over can help move them out in an orderly fashion. Audiences also like to leave a venue the same way they came in, so all exits should be open, accessible and well-lit.</p>
<p>Beyond this, Indonesia’s football crowds are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/redirects/backstory/television/2019-02-24/david-lipson-reporting-on-indonesian-soccer-rivalries-and-riots/10837748">well-known</a> for their excitability. So the risk of crowds getting out of hand should be managed <em>pre-emptively</em>. </p>
<p>One way to do this would be to separate spectators into different zones – a technique already used in World Cup events. This can reduce tensions in the stadium by reducing the likelihood of fans from different teams encountering each other. </p>
<p>Police can also form a peaceful barrier around the oval towards the end of a game, to signal to the crowd they are there to manage the situation. Importantly, they do not need to be armed. In the UK, “soft policing” is used for crowd management with <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jip.1359">great success</a>.</p>
<p>And having officers wear baseball caps and hoodies instead of riot gear (as was the case in Malang) has been shown to soften the crowd’s response, and allow police to walk through and break up small skirmishes before they escalate.</p>
<h2>The use of tear gas</h2>
<p>Soccer’s world governing body FIFA (Federation Internationale de Football Association) specifies in its safety regulations no firearms or “crowd control gas” should be carried or used by stewards or police. </p>
<p>The use of tear gas irritates the eyes and excites the pain receptors, which can lead to panic. In Malang, the use of tear gas in an already emotionally heightened situation created further panic and led to a crush.</p>
<p>Also, while most people sprayed with tear gas recover, there is <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/tear-gas-is-so-often-abused-it-should-be-banned-researchers-argue">risk of</a> long-term health consequences for those exposed to large doses and people with preexisting medical conditions. </p>
<p>The use of the gas was a poor decision and likely worsened the situation. FIFA president Gianni Infantino called the events “a dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension”.</p>
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<h2>Indonesia’s last soccer tragedy?</h2>
<p>In 1995, researcher and former UK policeman Alexander Berlonghi <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/092575359400033Y">argued</a> for the importance of understanding crowds to ensure “competent and effective action” when managing them.</p>
<p>He said without understanding the nuances of a crowd’s behaviour, disastrous mistakes can happen in planning and crowd control. More than two decades later, we are still seeing the same mistakes happening, and leading to a loss of life. </p>
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<p>In the aftermath of yet another crowd tragedy, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo said authorities must thoroughly evaluate security at matches, adding that he hoped this would be “the last soccer tragedy in the nation”. </p>
<p>Violence is common at soccer games in the country, with spectators reportedly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/redirects/backstory/television/2019-02-24/david-lipson-reporting-on-indonesian-soccer-rivalries-and-riots/10837748">beating up</a> rivals if they are recognised as a fan from another team.</p>
<p>Moving forward, there should be a focus on developing pre-emptive harm reduction strategies, and ensuring police are adequately trained to handle such events. There is also an urgent need to review the overall soccer culture in Indonesia. </p>
<p>If history is anything to go by, authorities will have to take drastic steps to make sure Saturday’s events are never repeated.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/panic-horror-and-chaos-what-went-wrong-at-the-champions-league-final-and-what-needs-to-be-done-to-make-football-safer-184182">Panic, horror and chaos: what went wrong at the Champions League final – and what needs to be done to make football safer</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Hutton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Saturday’s soccer match was afflicted by a deadly cocktail of a stadium packed to the brim, violent fans and the use of tear gas by police. Here’s how the disaster could have been avoided.Alison Hutton, Professor, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1713972021-11-08T07:30:39Z2021-11-08T07:30:39ZAstroworld tragedy: here’s how concert organisers can prevent big crowds turning deadly<p>A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/astroworld-crowd-crush-deaths-travis-scott-kylie-jenner/100602042">fatal crowd surge</a> during a performance by US rapper Travis Scott on Friday night has become one of the deadliest live music incidents in <a href="https://theconversation.com/carnage-at-ariana-grande-concert-in-manchester-a-suspected-terrorist-attack-78187">recent years</a>. Crowd crushes during the Houston show, which was part of the Astroworld Music Festival, led to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/astroworld-festival-victims.html">eight deaths and dozens of injuries</a>. </p>
<p>The incident is still being investigated, with criminal investigations also underway. How does such catastrophe emerge in a space where people are supposed to be enjoying themselves? </p>
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<p>I have been working in the area of crowd safety for several years. My expertise focuses on ways of boosting safety at large events such as Schoolies, outdoor music festivals and sporting tournaments. Based on reports, it seems several factors — compounded by mismanagement — led to an environment that was not conducive to what we call “cooperative crowding”. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-the-sound-of-fear-65230">Friday essay: the sound of fear</a>
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<h2>An unsettled start</h2>
<p>In a successfully managed event, organisers will create an atmosphere in which people are relaxed and feel part of a collective. Reports of early pushing and shoving at Scott’s show are a bad sign. </p>
<p>Adding to this, several witnesses reported they were unable to persuade event organisers to take action once the disaster was unfolding. It may be the music was too loud, although such details won’t be known until investigations finish. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/06/us/travis-scott-crowd-surge.html">According to the New York Times</a> and several other outlets, Scott’s show continued for 40 minutes after city officials reported on the “mass casualty event” — with the show finishing just half an hour earlier than planned.</p>
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<h2>It’s all about event control</h2>
<p>Event managers will often turn the lights up, or play music with a slower tempo, to help tame a rowdy audience. Lighting conditions and music are both important <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/public-health-for-mass-gatherings-key-considerations">psychosocial considerations</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, there are several ways organisers and performers on stage can attempt to settle a crowd — even among audiences of high-intensity musical acts.</p>
<p>For instance, German heavy-metal band Rammstein can attract intense and sometimes aggressive crowds. When the band played the 2011 Big Day Out festival in Sydney, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3727/152599518X15346132863157">managers put on a pyrotechnic display</a> and ambient music between sets to helps shift and control the crowd’s mood. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Rammstein played in Sydney in 2001 for the Big Day Out music festival.</span></figcaption>
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<p>It’s about knowing your audience and the environment they are likely to create. The <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263332870_Developments_in_the_real-time_evaluation_of_audience_behaviour_at_planned_events">genre will determine the demographic</a> and the expectation of the crowd’s behaviour. If it’s expected a particular show will attract a high-energy demographic, this needs to be prepared for in advance. Effective crowd control is preemptive, not reactive. </p>
<p>At music festivals, the acts in the lineup can also have a direct influence on the audience’s behaviour. Festival-goers can be persuaded to participate in activities and behaviours at the performer(s) request, abandoning safety restrictions put in place by event management. </p>
<p>As such, performers can create a calming environment through their interaction with the audience and have a positive influence on the crowd.</p>
<h2>What measures are in place?</h2>
<p>Despite widespread coverage of the Astroworld incident, the reality is that deadly crowd surges are not common. Australia’s most recent crowd-related music festival fatality was during a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/doublej/music-reads/features/how-the-big-day-out-lost-its-innocence/11606956">Limp Bizkit performance</a>, during the Big Day Out event in 2001.</p>
<p>On the whole, event managers put a lot of work into making sure crowds are looked after. Investment in crowd care can come through venue “chill-out spaces”, and granting different levels of access such as ground level versus stalls, or VIP seating. This is because events both in Australia and internationally are <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/tools-and-resources/event-starter-guide/risk-assessment-and-risk-management/">heavily</a> <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1959/manual-12-safe-and-healthy-mass-gatherings.pdf">legislated</a>. </p>
<p>On-the-ground security guards matter a lot, as they help ensure the crowd is sufficiently spread out and safe. The layout and design of the venue is also crucial, and the space should be able to handle the expected number of attendees. </p>
<p>The 2010 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade_disaster">Love Parade disaster</a> in Germany is one example of a chaotic crowd surge in which there were several systemic issues. The events communications system went down and there was only only one entry and exit – a catastrophic situation that <a href="https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/articles/10.1140/epjds7">culminated</a> in 21 deaths in a crush inside a tunnel.</p>
<p>Closer to home, in 2016 attendees at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-31/falls-festival-stampede-leaves-80-injured/8155392">Falls Festival</a> had to rush from one stage to another, which resulted in about 80 people being injured, including 20 hospital admissions. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are plenty of well-organised events that manage to accommodate hundreds of thousands of people, such as the <a href="https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/how-many-people-attend-glastonbury-4166109">Glastonbury festival</a>. </p>
<h2>What can I do in this situation?</h2>
<p>As concerts and shows start to resume, you may wonder how you can stay safe in a volatile crowd. The reality is, there is not much someone can do if they find themselves stuck deep in a dense mosh pit which is out of control, and the risk in this scenario is great. </p>
<p>The best way to avoid danger is to stay on the fringes, well away from the most congested sections of the crowd. If you have concert plans, ask yourself: what kind of people might I expect? Will people be drinking? Will it be family-friendly? Common sense will go a long way. </p>
<p>If, despite your planning, you find yourself in a crowd situation where you don’t feel safe, you should immediately report to security if you can. If you’re near the stage, you might also be able to get the performer’s attention. The performer has lot of power and, as several incidents in the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/placebo-stops-newcastle-gig-to-kick-out-fighting-crowd-members-20170913-gygauy.html">past have shown us</a>, they can shut things down until the crowd starts to cooperate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/computing-the-chances-of-olympic-crowd-chaos-8066">Computing the chances of Olympic crowd chaos</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Hutton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Investigations are being conducted to figure out what led to the death of eight people during a crowd surge at Travis Scott’s show.Alison Hutton, Professor , University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1121692019-02-27T19:20:20Z2019-02-27T19:20:20ZTen tips for surviving a crowd crush<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259945/original/file-20190220-148530-n9kvr9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C3017%2C1964&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 2010 "Love Parade" festival in Germany.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arne Müseler </span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On July 24, 2010, more than a million dancing partygoers converged on an industrial zone in Duisburg, in Eastern Germany. They were attending the Love Parade, one of the most popular music festivals in the world. Decked out in sunglasses and fluorescent wigs, the happy revellers funnelled into a 200-meter-long tunnel, heading toward a former freight station where part of the festival was taking place.</p>
<p>In the mid-afternoon, heavy congestion formed at the end of the tunnel – the underground passage was too small to allow such an immense crowd to pass. As the minutes went by, the human density rose dangerously. The festivalgoers, pushed up against each other, soon could barely move their arms or even hands. At the core of the crowd, some no longer had enough room to breathe. Around 5 p.m., to the sound of techno beats played by the best DJs in the world, the first victims began to suffocate. In the end, <a href="https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/articles/10.1140/epjds7">21 people died, and 651 were injured</a>. One survivor told the newspaper <em>Bild</em>: “It was impossible to get out of the tunnel. There was a wall of people in front of me.”</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A glimpse of the 2010 Love Parade prior to the accident (amateur video).</span></figcaption>
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<p>Just one month earlier, I was defending my doctoral thesis in an amphitheatre at Paul Sabatier University, in Toulouse, France. The topic of my research was the movement of crowds. Over three years, I had examined mass movements in all sorts of places – shopping streets, markets, even in lab experiments. When the Love Parade accident hit the news, my friends and family all asked me the same thing: what should they do if they found themselves in that kind of situation? How could they survive if they were trapped in a crowd, like the victims at the Love Parade? Let’s find out.</p>
<h2>Why crowds kill</h2>
<p>There has been a steady rise in such crushes since the 1990s. On average, they claim the lives of 380 people every year. The most recent was October 29, 2022, in Seoul, South Korea, when at least <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/30/asia/seoul-crowd-surge-investigation-intl/index.html">154 people died</a> during Halloween festivities. On April 29 last year, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/dozens-said-hurt-as-stand-collapses-at-mass-lag-bomer-gathering-in-mount-meron/">45 people were crushed to death and more than 150 injured</a> at the Lag B’Omer religious festival in Meron, Israel. It is thought to be the largest peacetime tragedy the country’s history. The deadliest killed <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/01/the-mecca-stampede-that-made-history-hajj">2,300 in Mecca in September 2015</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Time-lapse footage showing the crowd of pilgrims arriving in Mecca.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Three things draw the biggest crowds: religion, sports and festivities – a good summary of human interests. The Mecca pilgrimage, for example, attracts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/23/world/middleeast/hajj-attendance-expansion.html">2 to 3 million faithful every year</a>. The capacity of a football stadium is of course far lower, in the tens of thousands, but public celebrations following key victories can attract hundreds of thousands into city streets. Think of the Champs-Élysées, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_UhqRstko">swarming with people on July 15, 2018</a>, after the triumph of the French team in the World Cup. Last but not least, music festivals draw enormous crowds. The largest on record – 3.5 million people – gathered at Jean-Michel Jarr’s sound and light show in Moscow in September 1997.</p>
<p>In these extreme situations, the smallest organisational lapse can quickly lead to disaster. But what exactly happens in a crowd crush? Surprisingly, the dynamics of this phenomenon were only understood in the wake of a fresh tragedy.</p>
<h2>Crowd-quake</h2>
<p>In 2006, crowd turbulence caused the deaths of 362 pilgrims in Mecca. This time, the accident was filmed by a CCTV camera and the footage was sent 5,000 kilometres away, to the laboratory of German physicist Dirk Helbing. A researcher specialised in crowd behaviour, Helbing was able to uncover the key to the mystery: the “crowd-quake”, a phenomenon that arises spontaneously when human density reaches a critical threshold of about six people per square meter. At this level of crowding, physical contact between bodies becomes so intense that the slightest movement causes a surge of turbulence through the crowd. Similar to those that occur during earthquakes, these <a href="http://www.ethlife.ethz.ch/archive_articles/100727_Massenpanik_Helbing_sch/Dynamics_of_crowd_disasters.pdf">shockwaves</a> cause people to fall and places them all under crushing physical pressure.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In this video of an Oasis concert in 2005, the crowd-quake and surges are clearly visible.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ever since this important discovery, crowd-quakes have been observed during deadly crushes like that at the Love Parade in 2010. Although our understanding of it is increasing, there’s currently no way of stopping this phenomenon once it arises.</p>
<h2>Survival guide</h2>
<p>What should you do if you are trapped in a crowd and you start to feel the walls are closing in? Here are a few survival tips from our research in our “Fouloscopie” (crowd studies) labs.</p>
<p><strong>1. Keep your eyes open</strong></p>
<p>Your number-one goal is to get out of the sea of people as quickly and calmly as possible. Look around you: is it better to turn back or go forward? To find out, try to guess where the epicentre of the crush is located – where it is most crowded – and then move toward where the crowd thins out. Don’t forget to look up. You might find a quick escape by climbing a fence or getting up onto a ledge.</p>
<p><strong>2. Leave while you can</strong></p>
<p>If the crowd thickens around you, the available space is reduced and your freedom of movement gradually diminishes. The longer you wait, the harder it will be to escape. Given this, don’t hesitate to leave the highly congested area as soon as you start to feel uncomfortable, and while you still have enough room to move. By getting out of the crowd, you will also reduce the danger for others, since the area will be less crowded for those who stay.</p>
<p><strong>3. Remain upright</strong></p>
<p>If it’s too late to flee, the most important thing to do is retain your balance and stay upright. In a crowd crush, people are pressed so tightly together that if someone falls, they create a domino effect, immediately taking down those around them. Should you fall, the weight of other bodies will pin you to the ground before you have a chance to right yourself. So stay on your feet.</p>
<p><strong>4. Save your breath</strong></p>
<p>Oxygen is your most precious resource. The vast majority of deaths in stampedes are caused by asphyxiation. Avoid screaming unless you have to, and control your breathing.</p>
<p><strong>5. Arms at chest level</strong></p>
<p>Should the pressure become intense, fold your arms up in front of you like a boxer. In that position you can protect your ribcage and keep a few centimetres of space around your ribs and lungs so you can breathe.</p>
<p><strong>6. Go with the flow</strong></p>
<p>When pushed, our natural reflex can be to resist the pressure and push back. In a crowd crush, however, resisting will be a waste of precious energy. Instead, let yourself be carried by the flow while always retaining your balance.</p>
<p><strong>7. Move away from barriers</strong></p>
<p>The only time when the previous tip does not apply is if you’re next to a wall, fence or other solid object you can’t climb up. The first victims of a crush are often pinned against barriers, as was the case in Turin in 2017 and in <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/liverpool/11635476/Heysel-disaster-of-1985-is-footballs-forgotten-tragedy-and-Liverpool-and-Juventus-minimal-reaction-prolongs-hurt.html">Heysel</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hillsborough-disaster-investigations-six-people-charged-ipcc-operation-resolve-david-duckenfield-a7813441.html">Hillsborough</a> disasters in the 1980s. If possible, move away from any walls, pillars and fences.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260001/original/file-20190220-148530-kba1ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High pressure zones (in red) during a crowd crush.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>8. Understand the signs of density</strong></p>
<p>To make good decisions, you must be able to evaluate the gravity of the situation. Here are a few rules of thumb for estimating crowd density:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>If you have no physical contact with those around you, the density is probably still under three people per square meter, so at present all is well.</p></li>
<li><p>if you are bumping against one or two people around you without meaning to, the crowd density must be around four to five people per square meter. There is no immediate danger, but it would be better to move <em>away</em> from the centre of the congestion.</p></li>
<li><p>If you can’t freely move your hands, to the point that it is difficult to touch your face, there are too many people – the danger has become acute.</p></li>
</ul>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cC342Crwxrk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A panic in Place de la République in Paris on November 15, 2015.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>9. In case a panic</strong></p>
<p>A panic is a specific situation in which a crowd rushes in the same direction to escape a real or suspected danger. Examples include the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Madhya_Pradesh_stampede">Madhya Pradesh stampede in India</a> (2013), the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-16/false-alarm-causes-parisians-to-flee-in-panic/6943062">Place de la République in Paris</a> (2015), the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/falls-festival-organisers-accept-blame-for-crowd-crush">Falls Festival in Victoria, Australia</a> (2016), the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40147813">Piazza San Carlo in Turin</a> (2017) and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/nyregion/central-park-panic-global-citizen-festival.html">Global Citizen Festival in New York City</a> (2018). </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254908/original/file-20190122-100261-10oifng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author’s book <em>Fouloscopie</em> examines the behaviour of crowds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Humensciences</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In these kinds of situations, the movement of the crowd can be more dangerous than any threat, real or imagined. Take a moment to evaluate the situation and calmly move to safety, while staying as far as possible from the crowd.</p>
<p><strong>10. Help each other</strong></p>
<p>A dangerous situation for you is just as dangerous for those around you. Research by psychologist John Drury from the University of Sussex demonstrates that <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1348/014466608X357893">altruism and mutual assistance</a> are key to avoiding tragedy. A united crowd is more likely to survive than a crowd of individualists. So remain human and be kind to others, offer help when you can, avoid tripping up those around you and look out for the weakest members of the group. This will benefit everyone, yourself included.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Alice Heathwood for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en/">Fast For Word</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mehdi Moussaid is the author of "Fouloscopie", published by Humensciences.</span></em></p>When you find yourself trapped in an immense crowd, what are the right reflexes to adopt to survive?Mehdi Moussaid, Chercheur interdisciplinaire spécialisé dans le comportement des foules, Max Planck Institute for Human DevelopmentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/424512015-05-28T10:49:44Z2015-05-28T10:49:44ZCounting crowds is a start – but we also need to understand them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83227/original/image-20150528-32207-12wcqr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A disaster waiting to happen?</span> </figcaption></figure><p>There’s been a flurry of excitement about a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32883015">new model for counting crowds</a> using data generated by crowd members using Twitter and also their more general mobile phone usage. It was laid out in a recently published <a href="http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/2/5/150162">study</a>, in which the authors highlight the importance of knowing crowd numbers in order to be able to prevent crowd disasters. </p>
<p>As someone with a close interest in the study of crowds, I applaud any study that contributes to improved crowd safety management. From my own experience of trying to estimate crowd numbers, I also appreciate the inherent problems involved in this area, and can see the benefits in finding more accurate forms of crowd counting, as traditional methods are often susceptible to human error and bias. </p>
<p>For instance, the numbers of those who attend political demonstrations in the UK are often hotly debated, depending on one’s perspective – but the basic fact is that protest organisers tend to overestimate crowd size, while the police and right-wing media usually underestimate them. </p>
<p>As with all scientific research, we need to be careful not to make claims that go beyond the actual findings of particular studies. So I do wonder whether creating crowd models based upon simply knowing the physical characteristics of crowds can really help us ensure their safe facilitation and management. </p>
<h2>The limits of modelling</h2>
<p>Other <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/spacetimelab/people/ed-manley">crowd modellers</a> have sounded a note of caution about this research, highlighting the point that not everyone in crowds uses smart-phones and in any case such information depends upon mobile phone signals being available. </p>
<p>During large crowd events, mobile network coverage is often compromised by surges in demand. People affected by major incidents can flood it by trying to contact others, or the entire service can even be commandeered by the emergency services (as the City of London Police did briefly during the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/4763350.stm">7/7</a> bombings). </p>
<p>But there’s a broader issue with the use of crowd modelling in isolation. Being aware of a crowd’s mere physical size at any fixed point is generally of little use on its own. To prevent crowd disasters, it is vital to also consider the dynamic build-up of crowd size as well as what crowd members are actually doing. </p>
<p>It is far better to proactively implement efforts to ensure safe crowd management (maintaining steady crowd flow, monitoring pinch points for potentially dangerous levels of crowd density) than just responding to flare-ups once they occur. </p>
<p>In order to be able to take quick preventative action, it’s vital to have people in place who can communicate with crowd members and help facilitate their safe movement. This usually means placing trained stewards and crowd density spotters at selected vantage points to regularly report on crowd flow, density levels, visible signs of distress in crowd members and the like. and they are ideally situated to advise on crowd mood and/or behaviour as well as how to address any potential problems before they escalate to dangerous levels. </p>
<p>If these measures are not taken, events can easily escalate to a degree where it is too late to prevent tragedy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A memorial to the victims of the 2010 Love Parade disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:LP2010-Trauerkerzen.JPG#/media/File:LP2010-Trauerkerzen.JPG">Beademung via German Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That much was demonstrated in a <a href="http://www.epjdatascience.com/content/pdf/epjds7.pdf">study</a> of the 2010 Love Parade tragedy in Duisburg, Germany, where 21 died and more than 500 were injured in a fatal crush that created a “crowd-quake” of pressure surging through the crowd which people were physically unable to prevent. </p>
<h2>Back to psychology</h2>
<p>I firmly believe that the fields of crowd psychology and crowd modelling need not be in opposition to each other, and that both disciplines can make valuable contributions to the study of safe crowd management. </p>
<p>But crowd modelling perspectives are only as good as the theoretical approaches that underpin them – and until recently too many of these models didn’t consider psychological theories of collective human behaviour in sufficient detail. When they did, they focused on outdated approaches that wrongly assume that people will inevitably “panic” and/or stampede in crowd emergencies. This is a fallacy, and it’s strongly rejected in my own and other crowd psychologists’ current <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/shanghai-crowd-crush-tragedy.html">work</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, I am happy that some very good recent examples of crowd modelling have taken social psychology into account when building their models, such as research into the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352146514001355">7/7</a> bombings and the work of <a href="http://www.gkstill.com/">Keith Still</a>. So I would agree with the claims of the authors of this most recent study into crowd counting that it provides a good base on which to build further research. </p>
<p>But I would also suggest that activity on Twitter and mobile phone networks alone cannot tell us all we need to know about human behaviour in crowds and their safe management. We all have more work to do if we are to keep people safe in crowds and prevent often avoidable crowd disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Cocking does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study rejoices at being able to predict crowd movements and size with phone data. But those methods won’t keep us safe.Chris Cocking, Researcher into crowd behaviour, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/270032014-05-23T05:07:56Z2014-05-23T05:07:56ZSmart DJs use maths to mix the perfect beat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49171/original/77phc4ft-1400690351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deadmau5: probably does his sums.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thecosmopolitan/6117530924/in/photolist-eatgJp-e9RMYX-dx8QoW-dx3m4k-aqmFeS-abD9ag-abFXXY-4R9VPm-bfWAMR-6h9kG9-6h9kFf-ajAavJ-6h5axX-eacVA4-ajAav9-ajAavo-ajxkAg-ajxkyt-ajxkyV-ajxkyK-ajxkyc-ajxbQv-ajxbQn-ajzWPb-ajzWNA-ajzWP7-ajzWNj-ajzWNy-ajzWNo-ajzVpf-ajzVoY-ajzVp7-ajzVoy-ajx7kv-ajx7k4-ajx7ke-ajx7k8-ajx7k2-ajx7jK-ajzQi9-ajzQiq-ajzQid-ajzQhw-ajzQi1-81JVGq-81FLs4-81FHLk-cwyAUf-ajA7cw-ajA7cU">The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People are very good at moving in time to a beat. When you listen to your favourite song, you will probably find yourself nodding your head or tapping your foot along almost instinctively.</p>
<p>And when you’re doing it in a club, that piles pressure on your DJ. That DJ has to mix two songs together to maintain a common beat between the tracks if they want to keep the audience dancing. If they do a bad job of the mix, the two beat lines from each song won’t blend into each other. The most likely result of such a faux pas would be an instantly empty dance floor. </p>
<p>We’ve been <a href="http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/281/1786/20140751">investigating</a> how closely matched two beat lines need to be for people to start moving in time to them as if they form a common beat. In other words, how accurate does a DJ need to be to make a seamless transition between songs? </p>
<p>We asked people to tap their finger in time to two metronomes played simultaneously. The separation between the two metronomes and the consistency (the predictability of the rhythms) was varied across the experiment.</p>
<p>We found that if the metronomes were very consistent, they had to be closely matched in time for them to be considered a common beat. But if the beats of the individual metronomes were inconsistent and less predictable, the separation between the beats could be larger while still being considered to form a single common beat. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Better mix quick.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Elliott</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since a DJ will typically play tunes with a strongly defined beat, our research shows that in fact they have a very small margin of error to make the two beat lines sound as one to the dancing crowd. </p>
<p>The skill of DJing is probably more complex than people realise. Many of them might be high profile and living a super-star lifestyle but the professional DJ is an as-yet largely under-researched species. Along with the University of Leeds, we’re now investigating the timing skills of professional DJs who have only received informal training (as is generally the case) and comparing them to formally trained classical musicians.</p>
<h2>Mathematical moshing</h2>
<p>The models resulting from this research are also being applied to other areas, including crowd movements. In football stadiums the crowd will often become excited and start to bounce up and down together.</p>
<p>When the crowd moves together like this it can create problems with structural vibration so it’s useful to understand how and when a crowd is likely to start moving in synchrony.</p>
<p>The conditions under which this occurs are oddly similar to the beat matching of songs. A crowd moving together has developed a common beat between them. In this case however, rather than just sound, they are also combining vision and touch from the people surrounding them. We are <a href="http://gow.epsrc.ac.uk/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/I031030/1">working towards understanding</a> how the brain combines all this conflicting and unreliable sensory information to develop a common beat to which everyone moves.</p>
<p>Information like this can then be used to inform the construction of stadiums and bridges. This should result in <a href="http://gow.epsrc.ac.uk/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/I029567/2">better structural designs</a> with less wobble when the crowd get excited.</p>
<p>So next time you scoff at the superstar DJ being paid a fortune to play a few songs, give them a little credit. These results show that we continuously adjust our judgements of events in our environment according to the statistics of the sensory information we get from those events. Making two beats into one, maintaining your audience as you go, is a fine art.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Elliott receives funding from the EPSRC and prior to this, the BBSRC.</span></em></p>People are very good at moving in time to a beat. When you listen to your favourite song, you will probably find yourself nodding your head or tapping your foot along almost instinctively. And when you’re…Mark Elliott, Research Fellow in Human Movement Timing and Coordination, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/256182014-04-15T13:34:36Z2014-04-15T13:34:36ZHillsborough’s lesson – don’t fear the crowd<p>It is the 25th anniversary of the worst sporting tragedy in the UK: the Hillsborough football disaster, where 96 Liverpool fans died at an FA cup semi-final game against Nottingham Forest. As a mark of respect, all domestic football matches on Saturday 12 April started seven minutes <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26685698">late</a>, and various <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27001696">tributes</a> were held by football fans across the country. </p>
<p>The fallout from the disaster is still being felt 25 years on, now with a new round of <a href="http://hillsboroughinquests.independent.gov.uk/">inquests</a> after the quashing of the original “accidental death” verdicts in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-20772416">December 2012</a>. These inquests are currently hearing profiles of the 96 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26765007">victims</a>, with moving accounts by their <a href="http://www.live.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26979691">families</a>; there are also ongoing separate <a href="http://operationresolve.co.uk/">police</a> and <a href="http://www.ipcc.gov.uk/investigations/hillsborough">Independent Police Complaints Commission</a> investigations into the disaster. </p>
<p>It is now largely accepted that the fatal crush in the Leppings Lane pens, where the Liverpool fans were located, was a preventable disaster. Measures have been taken since to ensure that such crushes can never happen again, such as re-designing perimeter fences in football stadiums so that they can be opened quickly if crushes begin. </p>
<p>As the 1989 <a href="http://www.epcollege.com/EPC/media/MediaLibrary/Knowledge%20Hub%20Documents/F%20Inquiry%20Reports/Hillsborough-Taylor-Report.pdf?ext=.pdf">Taylor Report</a> said, it was a miracle that such a disaster had not happened before. It pointed out the tragic irony that before the disaster, no-one had ever died in a pitch invasion at a UK football match, while at Hillsborough 96 Liverpool fans died because the police were trying to stop an imagined one. </p>
<p>The way the police viewed football (and other) crowds in the 1980s influenced how they policed them. This is why they failed to spot the fatal crush developing until it was too late; it was exacerbated by the police believing that Liverpool fans were attempting to invade the pitch (hence the cordon they maintained near the half-way line while the disaster was at its height), when in fact they were merely trying to escape the fatal crush. This misplaced belief resulted in police pushing fans back into the pens while people still inside them were dying.</p>
<p>A common theme emerges runs through this catalogue of mistakes: that football matches and crowd events in general in the 1980s were too often seen as a public order problem, instead of a public safety issue. This is explicitly stated in the report, which concluded that at Hillsborough, “the collective policing mindset prioritised crowd control over crowd safety.”</p>
<p>Along with others involved in the study of crowd emergency behaviour and safety management, I am very critical of such approaches. As John Fruin has written, there is a clear difference between crowd control and crowd management:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Crowd management is defined as the systematic planning for, and supervision of, the orderly movement and assembly of people. Crowd control is the restriction or limitation of group behaviour.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is not just a semantic issue. As <a href="http://drury-sussex-the-crowd.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/hillsborough-and-crowd-control.html">John Drury</a> wrote after the independent panel report was published, “Approaching the crowd with a view to crowd control risks undermining crowd safety.” This emphasis on “crowd control” directly contributed to the disaster at Hillsborough.</p>
<h2>Insult and injury</h2>
<p>Of course, it was not just the disaster itself that made Hillsborough infamous, but also the subsequent cover-ups and attempts to deflect blame for the tragedy onto the victims that have so hurt both their families and the survivors, leaving an enduring sense of injustice that is still felt today. But lies about fans’ alleged behaviour (which have since been shown to be baseless) were all too readily accepted by politicians and the media. This was influenced by the same pervasive view that crowds are not to be trusted because of their potential for “irrational” behaviour.</p>
<p>The most notorious example was perhaps the shocking front page of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-19575411">Sun</a> newspaper, headlined <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=the+sun+hillsborough+original+article&espv=2&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&imgil=1PDvkgl1YA9TGM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcTl_9mhOmS2gBjm6H2P3dKVx6rDplYW-SBms21dGk--jc9Cr">The Truth</a>, which appeared four days after the disaster.</p>
<p>These views of crowds permeated the very top of the British establishment, as highlighted by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-margaret-thatchers-ministers-to-be-interviewed-by-police-watchdog-over-hillsborough-disaster-9236663.html">reports</a> that days after the tragedy, senior police officers briefed Margaret Thatcher that drunken Liverpool fans were to blame for the tragedy, despite there being <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/leaked-hillsborough-papers.html">no evidence</a> to support this claim.</p>
<p>Thatcher’s chief Press Secretary <a href="http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/margaret-thatcher-aide-sir-bernard-3420040">Bernard Ingham</a> also provoked outrage by defiantly sticking to the myth that Liverpool fans were to blame and the city should “shut up about Hillsborough”; similarly, in 2012, Boris Johnson was forced to apologise for an article that appeared in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/sep/13/boris-johnson-apologises-hillsborough-article">The Spectator</a> magazine when he was editor that falsely blamed drunken fans for the tragedy. </p>
<p>These attitudes have greatly exacerbated the sense of injustice. A recent article in the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/liverpool/10760335/We-all-share-in-the-shame-of-Hillsborough.html">Daily Telegraph</a> looked at the shocking treatment of victims after Hillsborough, arguing that derogatory stereotypes of Liverpudlians have also helped contribute to the enduring myth that somehow fans were to blame.</p>
<p>There is almost a sense of moral panic in the way society views crowds, in that they are often seen as vehicles for potential “disorder” or mass panic, despite decades’ worth of research by psychologists finding that such concepts are largely myths, and that crowds often behave much more sensibly than they are usually given credit for. When tragedies happen, it is almost always because of a failure of crowd management, as opposed to any “irrational” behaviour on the part of the victims. Attempts to blame victims are often part of a strategy to deflect blame away from those responsible for such mismanagement. </p>
<p>As I have argued <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/dont-blame-brazilian-nightclub-fire-on.html">elsewhere</a>, we too often attempt to shift blame for disasters like Hillsborough onto victims by using emotive terms such as “panic” to describe their behaviour. This deep societal mistrust of crowds was a major contribution to the context in which Hillsborough happened, and helps explain why the despicable slurs that were spread about the victims were allowed to remain unchecked in popular discourse for so long – adding to the pain and distress of those who knew the truth about what happened.</p>
<p>To help avoid future Hillsboroughs, we need to develop a less negative view of crowd behaviour in popular discourse. As I <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/hillsborough-papers-released.html">wrote</a> when the Hillsborough Independent Panel report was released, we all need to take responsibility for ensuring that we adopt a less pathological view towards crowds, and try to develop crowd safety strategies at large events that prevent such disasters from ever happening again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Cocking has received funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p>It is the 25th anniversary of the worst sporting tragedy in the UK: the Hillsborough football disaster, where 96 Liverpool fans died at an FA cup semi-final game against Nottingham Forest. As a mark of…Chris Cocking, Researcher into crowd behaviour, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.