tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/deforestation-1543/articlesDeforestation – The Conversation2024-03-19T13:10:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239222024-03-19T13:10:57Z2024-03-19T13:10:57ZNigeria’s forests are fast disappearing – urgent steps are needed to protect their benefits to the economy and environment<p><em>Nigeria’s forest cover has been dwindling fast for decades. With one of the <a href="https://earth.org/challenges-facing-policies-against-deforestation-in-nigeria/">highest rates of deforestation</a> in the world, there are concerns about the survival of its forest resources. We asked forest management and biodiversity conservation expert Amusa Tajudeen to explain why the country’s forests are disappearing and what to do about it.</em></p>
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<h2>Which parts of Nigeria are covered by forest?</h2>
<p>Nigeria has a rain forest zone in the south. Forest cover decreases in density towards the north, where the savannah belt is characterised by grasses and sparse tree cover. The rain forest ecosystem <a href="https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:1726/unuinrapolicybriefvol2_4.pdf">lies</a> between latitudes 4⁰N and 9⁰N and extends from the coast to about 250km inland.</p>
<h2>What is the current status of Nigeria’s forest cover?</h2>
<p>Nigeria’s forest cover is diminishing in extent and quality. But reliable data is scarce. For instance, one record indicates that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Thomas-Omali/publication/344238412_Prospects_of_satellite-Enhanced_Forest_Monitoring_for_Nigeria/links/5f5f7158299bf1d43c0223ce/Prospects-of-satellite-Enhanced-Forest-Monitoring-for-Nigeria.pdf#page=4">Nigeria’s land mass is 910,770km²</a> and forest occupies 110,890km², or 12.8% of the total land mass. Another shows that Nigeria’s land mass is 997,936km² and only <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jasr/article/view/112511">10% is under forest reserve</a>.</p>
<p>At independence in 1960, it was <a href="https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:1726/unuinrapolicybriefvol2_4.pdf">reported</a> that the colonial government had set aside 97,000km² (9.72%) of the country as forest reserves. </p>
<p>Historical accounts also indicate that the country’s rain forest, which was over 600,000km² in 1897 (60% of land mass), had <a href="https://bioone.org/journals/international-forestry-review/volume-8/issue-3/ifor.8.3.372/Status-of-Tropical-Forest-Management-2005-Summary-Report/10.1505/ifor.8.3.372.full?casa_token=ZTKPa_OhRG8AAAAA:iVodlrGMgTr3eYlu4CZ-IWR1KCxrg_0q6lnmCpc6zTfHRaBj2_kFYQETnMpHndwm6KRzxdefZXQ">reduced</a> by about half in 1960 to 30% of land mass. </p>
<p>Nigeria’s forests <a href="https://www.netjournals.org/pdf/NJAS/2015/1/15-011.pdf#page=1">covered</a> an estimated 175,000km² in 1990 and 135,000km² in 2000. Between 2000 and 2004, the country was said to have lost 55.7% of its primary forests – that is, 75,195km² of native and original forests that have never been logged and have developed under natural processes. </p>
<p>A report by the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UN-REDD) <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/partner-countries/africa/nigeria">shows</a> that the decline rate of forest cover in Nigeria ranged from 3.5% to 3.7% per annum over the period 2000 to 2010. This translates to a loss of 350,000–400,000 hectares of forest land yearly.</p>
<p>Unless something decisive is done, and urgently, the country will lose all its forest areas by the year 2052, if the prevailing rate of deforestation at 3.5% annually is anything to go by.</p>
<h2>Why is forest cover important?</h2>
<p>Forests are very important for the economic development of every nation. They also have environmental, ecological, socio-cultural, scientific and research service functions. </p>
<p>Forests provide numerous goods and services. Some are needed as raw materials – for example wood for building materials, fuel and paper. </p>
<p>Forests also offer natural foods and non-timber products like oilseeds, latexes, gums, resins, rattan, vanilla and game. Forest-based industries such as sawmills, paper mills and furniture industries provide employment and income. </p>
<p>Forest ecosystems offer physical, biological and chemical benefits. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>conserving soil, controlling the timing and volume of water flows, protecting water quality and maintaining aquatic habitats </p></li>
<li><p>preventing disasters like floods and landslides, and moderating winds </p></li>
<li><p>conserving biodiversity </p></li>
<li><p>storing carbon, which mitigates climate change. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The socio-cultural service functions of forests cover nature-based tourism and ecotourism activities. Ecotourism provides a means for people to use the forest without extracting its resources or degrading the environment. Wildlife attracts many visitors and foreign exchange earnings.</p>
<p>In addition, forests help to deepen our understanding of the natural world. Through research, we learn new things about species, habitats and ecosystems. Forest resources are particularly important in medicine, including immunology and other studies of diseases. </p>
<h2>Why is Nigeria’s forest cover being depleted?</h2>
<p>Before the 1950s, the forestry and agriculture sectors <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul-Owombo-2/publication/311869826_Contributions_of_Forestry_Sub-sector_to_the_Nigerian_Economy_A_Co-integration_Approach/links/5c3ef31692851c22a3789e6a/Contributions-of-Forestry-Sub-sector-to-the-Nigerian-Economy-A-Co-integration-Approach.pdf">contributed</a> over 80% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product. This changed after the discovery of oil in the 1950s and early 1960s.</p>
<p>Today, the laws and policies associated with forest administration are obsolete. In addition, supervision, monitoring and surveillance of forest areas is poor. Staffing and provision of basic infrastructure are grossly inadequate. </p>
<p>The principle of sustained yield forestry, when products removed from the forest are replaced by growth, has been abandoned in most forest reserves. Inventory records of resources are insufficient. Local people don’t participate enough in decision-making related to forests. The forestry sector is also affected by corruption, such as misappropriation of funds and <a href="http://repository.ui.edu.ng/handle/123456789/1405">illegal activities</a>.</p>
<p>In Nigeria, primary forests are <a href="http://repository.ui.edu.ng/handle/123456789/1405">cleared</a> extensively. The various state forestry departments have been unable to adequately protect the forest estate. Most forest reserves that were once managed for timber production have become deforested and fragmented. Many have been converted for other land uses. </p>
<p>Large scale agriculture has consumed a significant portion of forested areas. Similarly, <a href="https://digitalscholarship.tsu.edu/ajcjs/vol9/iss1/10/">unlawful and indiscriminate logging activities</a> take place in naturally occurring forests. </p>
<p>Urbanisation, which comes with roads, buildings and other infrastructure, is often carried out without proper planning. </p>
<h2>How can this depletion be tackled?</h2>
<p>Based on our <a href="http://80.240.30.238/bitstream/123456789/1405/1/%2816%29%20ui_inpro_amusa_forest_2017.pdf">studies</a> of the Nigerian forests over the years and <a href="https://www.rufford.org/projects/tajudeen-okekunle-amusa/strengthening-monitoring-systems-for-adaptive-management-and-protection-of-forest-elephants-in-omo-forest-reserve-southwestern-nigeria/">lessons</a> from numerous projects carried out, I have the following recommendations:</p>
<p>Most countries have a forestry law. Unfortunately Nigeria’s forest policy is not backed by a code or act. A national Forestry Act could reverse the decline in forest cover. It could give adequate protection and ensure sustainable management of the country’s forest estate.</p>
<p>There is an urgent need to plant and replant trees across the country. The various state governments can collaborate with non-governmental organisations to achieve this. </p>
<p>Reforestation involves replanting trees in areas where forests have been destroyed. Afforestation involves creating new forests on previously non-forested land. These campaigns should plant a diverse range of native tree species. </p>
<p>It’s also crucial to promote sustainable forestry practices. The government should enforce strict regulations against illegal logging and unsustainable timber harvesting. Enforcement can be done using technology such as remote sensors, drones and satellite imagery. It is essential to work with local communities, traditional leaders and NGOs to raise awareness about the importance of forest conservation.</p>
<p>Finally, there should be proper staffing. Adequately trained forest professionals and well equipped guards should be hired to safeguard the forests. Education and training programmes should teach local communities, forest workers and farmers about sustainable forestry methods and the importance of preserving biodiversity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223922/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tajudeen Amusa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria’s forest resources have dwindled and are in danger of disappearing in a few decades if nothing is done to save them.Tajudeen Amusa, Associate Professor, Forest Resources Management, University of IlorinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187532024-03-13T16:44:27Z2024-03-13T16:44:27ZSweden has vast ‘old growth’ forests – but they are being chopped down faster than the Amazon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581678/original/file-20240313-20-usdjv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4594%2C3449&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Swedish old-growth forest.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ulrika Ervander</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of Europe’s natural ecosystems have been lost over the centuries. However, a sizeable amount of natural old forest still exists, especially in the north. These “old-growth” forests are <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.979528/full">exceptionally valuable</a> as they tend to host more species, store more carbon, and are <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acd6a8/meta">more resilient to environmental change</a>.</p>
<p>Many of these forests are found in Sweden, part of the belt of boreal forests that circle the world through Canada, Scandinavia and Russia. But after <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF003221">researching these last relics of natural forest</a> we have found they are being cleared rapidly – at a rate faster even than the Amazon rainforest. </p>
<p>There is no direct monitoring of these forests, no thorough environmental impact assessments and most of the public don’t seem to be aware this is even happening. Other evidence suggests something similar is happening right across the world’s boreal forests.</p>
<p>It can be tricky to know exactly how much old-growth forest there is, since the distinction might not always be clear. However, there is a clear difference between forests that have been “clear-cut” (entirely chopped down) sometime in the past and those that never have. </p>
<p>Clear-cutting started appearing in Sweden in the early 1900s and has been the dominant type of forestry in the country since the 1950s. The uncut forests that predate this time have therefore most likely not been clear-cut and since they are old they can be classified as old-growth forests.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Logging machine in forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581712/original/file-20240313-22-nlg4ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clear-cutting is still the main form of logging in Sweden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lasse Johansson / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study, we looked specifically at forests in unprotected areas where the trees predated 1880 on average. That’s long before the large-scale adoption of clear-cutting in Sweden and means those forests have likely never been clear-cut.</p>
<p>These unprotected old-growth forests constitute around 8% of the productive forest land in Sweden, that is, the area that is generally favourable for forestry (omitting forests close to the Scandinavian mountain range tree line). This amounts to about 1.8 million hectares of old-growth forest, more than the total wooded area in <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/FOR_AREA_EFA__custom_672302/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=2b089c56-a550-4f87-943e-0989dacf605a">many European countries</a>.</p>
<p>This area of unprotected old-growth forest, with the remaining protected old-growth and <a href="https://www.nateko.lu.se/research/ecosystem-ecology/primary-forest-project">primary forests</a>, constitutes a large share of the last known ecosystems of “high naturalness” in the EU.</p>
<h2>What is happening to these old-growth forests?</h2>
<p>Between 2003 and 2019, 20% of all the clear-cut forest in Sweden was old-growth. This means a sizeable share of forest products, such as timber, paper and bioenergy, comes from old trees. The losses to unprotected old-growth forests amount to 1.4% per year, which means they will be lost completely by the 2070s if the trend continues. </p>
<p>To put this in perspective, Sweden’s old-growth forests have been cleared six to seven times faster than the <a href="http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/amazon/increments">Brazilian Amazon forest</a> between 2008 and 2023. (Of course, given the size of the Amazon, the total amount of cleared forest is much larger there). </p>
<p>While our study, shockingly enough, appears to be the only of its kind across the boreal region, there is some research showing that old-growth forests are also harvested in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112719313611">Canada</a>. Additional anecdotal evidence further suggests the unchecked loss of old-growth forests to forestry operations in <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/09/30/russia-is-running-out-of-forest-a39951">other</a> <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/tale-two-forests-tour-through-canadas-boreal">boreal</a> <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/issue-with-tissue-2-report.pdf">regions</a> .</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>The European Commission has drafted <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/documents-register/detail?ref=SWD(2023)62&lang=en">guidelines</a> for all countries to map and protect all remaining old-growth and primary forests. This would be a good start. </p>
<p>But ultimately, we’ll need a coordinated system to map and monitor the entire boreal forest simply to learn the rate at which it is being lost. This would also help us understand the implications for carbon storage, for other plants and animals that live in these forests, and the humans that use them. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is a large and difficult task. Yet this might be one of our last chances to protect and recover large areas of natural forests. Logging old-growth forests now will delay their recovery for centuries.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anders Ahlström receives funding from the Swedish Research Council and EU H2020. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p>Research suggests these forests could disappear by the 2070s.Anders Ahlström, Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243922024-03-01T13:54:55Z2024-03-01T13:54:55ZThe world’s business and finance sectors can do much more to reverse deforestation – here’s the data to prove it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578638/original/file-20240228-18-y5cg7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rainforest jungle in Borneo, Malaysia, is destroyed to make way for oil palm plantations</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deforestation-aerial-photo-rainforest-jungle-borneo-1098811376">Rich Carey/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Big corporations could drive a worldwide shift towards more <a href="https://forest500.org/sites/default/files/forest_500_financial_institution_selection_methodology_2022.pdf">sustainable supply chains</a> that limit damage caused by deforestation. But progress is being slowed down by weak or non-existent commitments to ensure that supply chains for commodities such as soy, palm oil and beef have not contributed to tropical deforestation, according to analysis recently published by the environmental organisation <a href="https://globalcanopy.org/about-us/">Global Canopy</a>.</p>
<p>Based on ten years of <a href="https://forest500.org/publications/2024-a-decade-of-deforestation-data/">data</a>, the <a href="https://forest500.org/">Forest 500</a> report assessed 350 companies, from high-street supermarkets and food producers that might use soy or beef in their supply chains to firms using tropical timber to build furniture. It also looked at 150 financial institutions that provide <a href="https://forest500.org/publications/2023-watershed-year-action-deforestation/">US$6.1 trillion</a> (£4.8 trillion) of investment to these companies each year. </p>
<p>Nearly one-third of the assessed companies still haven’t committed to avoiding deforestation when trading in commodities such as beef and leather, palm oil, soy, timber and paper pulp. </p>
<p>But progress varies depending on the product. While a majority (76%) of companies assessed for palm oil have a deforestation commitment, 65% of those assessed for beef do not. Conversion to beef pasture is driving a surge in deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado savannah where, last year, deforestation increased <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68272643">by 43%</a>. </p>
<p>New laws, such as the <a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/regulation-deforestation-free-products_en">EU Deforestation Regulation</a> and <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/forest-act">US Forest Act</a>, aim to prevent trade in products that contribute to illegal deforestation. But these <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/forests/the-cerrado-crisis-brazils-deforestation-frontline/">may not protect habitats such as the Cerrado savannah</a>, for example, which <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68272643">falls out of scope of the new EU regulation</a> because the trees aren’t tall enough to count as forest.</p>
<p>Unless deforestation regulations are strengthened to stop trade in products that have caused the loss of any type of vital natural habitat, companies will not stop trading in products such as beef that are sourced from forests like the Cerrado savannah. </p>
<p>In the UK, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/supermarket-essentials-will-no-longer-be-linked-to-illegal-deforestation">proposed regulations</a> will stop trade in products associated with illegal deforestation, but not those defined as legal under local law. Regulation has a part to play in halting deforestation, but only if it includes all conversion of natural habitats, both legal and illegal, and includes regulation of the finance sector.</p>
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<img alt="Short green trees and brown grass burning with flames and smoke" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578632/original/file-20240228-26-ubavq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Cerrado forest vegetation in Brazil is being burnt to make way for livestock farming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burning-cerrado-vegetation-typical-biome-central-2033322188">Sergio Willian fotos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>International collaborations such as the <a href="https://forestclimateleaders.org/#about">Forest and Climate Leaders Partnership</a> seek to address government and public sector ambition. But steps to reduce deforestation from within the <a href="https://accountability-framework.org/">private sector</a> are just as crucial, because global trade in forest commodities drives loss. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation">greatest drivers</a> of tropical forest loss are conversion to cropland and pasture, building of infrastructure such as mines and roads, and logging for timber. <a href="https://theconversation.com/forests-are-vital-to-protect-the-climate-yet-the-world-is-falling-far-behind-its-targets-216703">Climate change and wildfires</a> add further pressures, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8622">degrading forests</a>. </p>
<p>Trade in products such as coco, coffee, palm oil, soybeans, beef and leather, timber and wood pulp all expose companies to deforestation risk. The raw trade value of these products – defined as “freight on board” by <a href="https://comtradeplus.un.org/">UN Comm Trade</a> – in 2022 alone was more than US$32 billion.</p>
<p>It’s hard to move away from deforestation to make valuable products when the practices are supported by <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/06/15/trillions-wasted-on-subsidies-could-help-address-climate-change">huge subsidies</a>. Those to the soy, palm oil and beef industries support <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/06/15/trillions-wasted-on-subsidies-could-help-address-climate-change">14% of annual global forest loss</a>. The annual funding for forests is <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/learn/landscapes/forests/pathways-report-summary">less than 1%</a> that which funds environmentally harmful subsidies, so progress in reducing deforestation is undermined by an enormous financial gap. This needs to be closed in order to start financially incentivising forest protection. </p>
<p>Human rights issues and deforestation go hand-in-hand because many Indigenous peoples and local communities are <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-10/WWF-Forest-Pathways-Report-2023.pdf">denied land rights to their forests</a>. It is vital that companies ensure their supply chains do not exacerbate land rights denial – but here the new report highlights a global blind spot. </p>
<p>Only 1% of Forest 500 companies had a policy for all of the human rights issues relating to at least one of the highest-risk commodities they were assessed for. And most of the companies assessed (91%) did not have a published commitment to ensuring that all rights-based conflicts are resolved before they finalise new developments or acquisitions in their supply chains.</p>
<h2>Global forest goals</h2>
<p>2023 was a landmark year for the planet’s forests. For the first time, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cop26-world-leaders-summit-on-action-on-forests-and-land-use-2-november-2021/world-leaders-summit-on-action-on-forests-and-land-use">global goal</a> to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030 was formally adopted <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">by the UN</a>. </p>
<p>Yet despite everything forests do for <a href="https://theconversation.com/forests-are-vital-to-protect-the-climate-yet-the-world-is-falling-far-behind-its-targets-216703">nature, people and the climate</a>, forest loss continues almost unabated. In 2022, an area of forest <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?9899941/Forest-Pathways-Report-2023">the size of Denmark</a> was lost. The new report shows there is still a huge gap between ambition and action. </p>
<p>There is no legally binding international framework convention on forests, so most forest commitments are voluntary. <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/discover/our_focus/markets/deforestation_conversion_free/">Advice to companies</a> on how to accelerate and scale up deforestation and conversion-free supply chains is widespread, but the <a href="https://forest500.org/analysis/insights/major-companies-and-financial-institutions-are-persistently-ignoring-their-role-in-driving-deforestation/">Forest 500 assessment</a> concludes that the private sector isn’t taking voluntary action fast enough.</p>
<p>Only 3% of Forest 500 companies are fully and publicly reporting deforestation in their supply chains, and <a href="https://forest500.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Forest500_Annual-Report-2024_Final.pdf">63% fail to publish adequate evidence</a> of the implementation of their deforestation commitments. This makes it difficult for consumers to be sure that the products they buy are not contributing to any form of forest loss.</p>
<p>As the report concludes, new regulations to address deforestation must be ambitious and cover both legal and illegal deforestation. They must also address the conversion of natural ecosystems for forest commodities that result in environmental destruction, and any associated human rights abuses. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Gagen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recently published report sheds light on how 350 big companies and 150 financial institutions are falling behind with goals to halt and reverse deforestation.Mary Gagen, Professor of Physical Geography, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210852024-02-22T20:50:27Z2024-02-22T20:50:27ZHow advanced genetic testing can be used to combat the illegal timber trade<p>According to <a href="https://www.interpol.int/Crimes/Environmental-crime/Forestry-crime">Interpol</a>, the organization dedicated to facilitating international police co-operation, between 15 per cent and 30 per cent of the world’s traded timber comes from illegal sources. This is an estimated annual value of US$51-152 billion dollars. </p>
<p>Illegal logging has serious consequences for the environment, the climate and the local livelihoods of the people who depend upon the affected forests. In turn, local governments are faced with losses in revenue, rising corruption and decreasing timber prices. These make it even more difficult for the legal forestry sector to remain competitive. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/illegal-logging-in-africa-is-a-threat-to-security-202291">Illegal logging in Africa is a threat to security</a>
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<p>Even in Canada, customers are unwittingly supporting this theft by buying timber with false declarations. In the face of such issues, Canadian researchers are currently developing a <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.891853/publication.html">traceability system</a> employing genomic identification technologies to help tackle the trade in illegal timber. </p>
<h2>Stemming the flow</h2>
<p>To help address poaching, the United States expanded the pre-existing <a href="https://www.fws.gov/law/lacey-act">Lacey Act in 2008</a>. Originally designed to control the illegal trade of <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/lacey-acts-effectiveness">wildlife</a>, it was adapted to help tackle the trade in illegally harvested wood. The 2008 amendments to the Lacey Act decreased the importation of illegally harvested wood into the U.S. by approximately 32 to 44 per cent. </p>
<p>In Canada, similar regulations have been put in place to avoid the exploitation of species at risk including the <a href="https://www.laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-8.5/index.html">Wild Animal and Plant Protection and Regulation of International and Interprovincial Trade Act</a>. But how do we know if the declarations of a wood product are accurate or correctly reported? </p>
<p>In general, identification methods can be categorized into three groups: anatomical, analytical or molecular biological techniques — each with its <a href="https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21518.79689">own set of advantages and limitations</a>. </p>
<p>Identification methods which use the aid of <a href="https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.21.00067">microscope technology</a> look for distinct characteristics of the wood anatomy including tissues and cells. It is also the group of methods most commonly used.</p>
<p>However, this method requires trained specialists, the appropriate equipment and can typically only provide meaningful conclusions at the <a href="https://www.biologyonline.com/dictionary/genus">genus level</a>. In addition, wood anatomy cannot tell us where a piece of wood comes from. </p>
<h2>Looking to genetics</h2>
<p>This is where genomics come into play. To determine the species identity and the geographic origin of a logged tree, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35016000">researchers take advantage of evolution</a>. </p>
<p>A few key factors make genetic identification possible. </p>
<p>Firstly, there are clear genetic differences between distinct <em><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2771874/#:%7E:text=We%20define%20a%20genetic%20species,from%20the%20Biological%20Species%20Concept.">species</a></em>. Secondly, the closer the relationship between individuals — in this case trees — the more genetically similar they are, while the more removed the individuals are the less genetic information is shared.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is possible to assign an individual to a “local population” based on its genetic fingerprint, sharing parts of its genetic makeup with that population and, consequently, <a href="https://pubs.cif-ifc.org/doi/abs/10.5558/tfc2018-010">also the specific region where it originates from</a>. This method is called population genetics. </p>
<p>The power of population genetics lies in its ability to identify groups of individuals that share a certain amount of genetic information that can be used to assign individuals to a species or a geographic region. The same methods can be used for humans to find unknown relatives or trace back the ethnic origin of your ancestors. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weakening-australias-illegal-logging-laws-would-undermine-the-global-push-to-halt-forest-loss-172770">Weakening Australia's illegal logging laws would undermine the global push to halt forest loss</a>
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<p>To reliably assign individuals, a variety of genetic markers is needed, varying between species and local populations. </p>
<p>In Canada, the first successful use of genetic material to conduct forensic testing on trees was pioneered by geneticist Eleanor White who succeeded in <a href="https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/5177.pdf">tracing a wood log directly to the specific stump of an 800-year-old cedar tree in Western Canada</a> left behind after its illegal felling.</p>
<p>White’s success demonstrates the power of genomic identification in regulating the timber trade.</p>
<h2>Developing new systems</h2>
<p>Genomic sequencing in combination with genetic data analyses gained public traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, as these were used to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18314-x">identify an outbreak of a new virus variant and trace its origin</a>.</p>
<p>Current research in wood forensics is using similar tools to assign an individual to a source population with high accuracy. Since genetic analyses can be costly, genetic databases of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10297">previously studied species</a> are compiled and used as test data to determine the best and most reliable analytical method.</p>
<p>The aim is to create a simple traceability system for timber products that border officials can implement quickly and easily. This should help stop the sale of illegally harvested timber and hold those responsible to account. </p>
<p>The long-term goal is to make it more difficult to sell illegally harvested timber in Canada and thus contribute to the protection of valuable forests. In addition, traceability can certify areas in Canada which are sustainably managed, making it easier for consumers to support sustainable forest management practices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Zacharias receives funding from Génome Québec. </span></em></p>Effective use of genomic identification could revolutionize the control of the illegal timber trade.Melanie Zacharias, Postdoctoral researcher in forest genetics, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235492024-02-19T03:46:27Z2024-02-19T03:46:27ZScientists shocked to discover new species of green anaconda, the world’s biggest snake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576419/original/file-20240219-26-4pucih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5294%2C3532&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The green anaconda has long been considered one of the Amazon’s most <a href="https://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1916160_1916151_1916136,00.html">formidable and mysterious</a> animals. Our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/16/2/127">new research</a> upends scientific understanding of this magnificent creature, revealing it is actually two genetically different species. The surprising finding opens a new chapter in conservation of this top jungle predator.</p>
<p>Green anacondas are the world’s heaviest snakes, and among the longest. Predominantly found in rivers and wetlands in South America, they are renowned for their lightning speed and ability to asphyxiate huge prey then swallow them whole.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I were shocked to discover significant genetic differences between the two anaconda species. Given the reptile is such a large vertebrate, it’s remarkable this difference has slipped under the radar until now. </p>
<p>Conservation strategies for green anacondas must now be reassessed, to help each unique species cope with threats such as climate change, habitat degradation and pollution. The findings also show the urgent need to better understand the diversity of Earth’s animal and plant species before it’s too late.</p>
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<img alt="snake on branches above water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576390/original/file-20240219-30-pwv50z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Scientists discovered a new snake species known as the northern green anaconda.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bryan Fry</span></span>
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<h2>An impressive apex predator</h2>
<p>Historically, four anaconda species have been recognised, including green anacondas (also known as giant anacondas).</p>
<p>Green anacondas are true behemoths of the reptile world. The largest females can grow to more than <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/anaconda#ref708759">seven metres long</a> and weigh <a href="https://taronga.org.au/news/2018-07-11/green-anaconda-weighs">more than 250 kilograms</a>.</p>
<p>The snakes are well-adapted to a life lived mostly in water. Their nostrils and eyes are on top of their head, so they can see and breathe while the rest of their body is submerged. Anacondas are olive-coloured with large black spots, enabling them to blend in with their surroundings.</p>
<p>The snakes inhabit the lush, intricate waterways of South America’s Amazon and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Orinoco-Basin">Orinoco</a> basins. They are known for their stealth, patience and surprising agility. The buoyancy of the water supports the animal’s substantial bulk and enables it to move easily and leap out to ambush prey as large as capybaras (giant rodents), caimans (reptiles from the alligator family) and deer. </p>
<p>Green anacondas are not venomous. Instead they take down prey using their large, flexible jaws then crush it with their strong bodies, before swallowing it.</p>
<p>As apex predators, green anacondas are vital to maintaining balance in their ecosystems. This role extends beyond their hunting. Their very presence alters the behaviour of a wide range of other species, influencing where and how they forage, breed and migrate.</p>
<p>Anacondas are highly sensitive to environmental change. Healthy anaconda populations indicate vibrant ecosystems, with ample food resources and clean water. Declining anaconda numbers may be harbingers of environmental distress. So knowing which anaconda species exist, and monitoring their numbers, is crucial.</p>
<p>To date, there has been little research into genetic differences between anaconda species. Our research aimed to close that knowledge gap.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-killing-brown-snakes-they-could-be-a-farmers-best-friend-222142">Stop killing brown snakes – they could be a farmer's best friend</a>
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<img alt="snake in water eating deer" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576418/original/file-20240219-27-h8efx6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Green anaconda have large, flexible jaws. Pictured: a green anaconda eating a deer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JESUS RIVAS</span></span>
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<h2>Untangling anaconda genes</h2>
<p>We studied representative samples from all anaconda species throughout their distribution, across nine countries.</p>
<p>Our project spanned almost 20 years. Crucial pieces of the puzzle came from samples we collected on a 2022 expedition to the Bameno region of Baihuaeri Waorani Territory in the Ecuadorian Amazon. We took this trip at the invitation of, and in collaboration with, Waorani leader Penti Baihua. Actor Will Smith also joined the expedition, as part of a series he is filming for National Geographic. </p>
<p>We surveyed anacondas from various locations throughout their ranges in South America. Conditions were difficult. We paddled up muddy rivers and slogged through swamps. The heat was relentless and swarms of insects were omnipresent. </p>
<p>We collected data such as habitat type and location, and rainfall patterns. We also collected tissue and/or blood from each specimen and analysed the samples back in the lab. This revealed the green anaconda, formerly believed to be a single species, is actually two genetically distinct species. </p>
<p>The first is the known species, <em>Eunectes murinus</em>, which lives in Perú, Bolivia, French Guiana and Brazil. We have given it the common name “southern green anaconda”. The second, newly identified species is <em>Eunectes akayima</em> or “northern green anaconda”, which is found in Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana.</p>
<p>We also identified the period in time where the green anaconda diverged into two species: almost 10 million years ago. </p>
<p>The two species of green anaconda look almost identical, and no obvious geographical barrier exists to separate them. But their level of genetic divergence – 5.5% – is staggering. By comparison, the genetic difference between humans and apes is <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-does-the-fact-that-w/#:%7E:text=Most%20studies%20indicate%20that%20when,size%20of%20the%20comparison%20unit.">about 2%</a>.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-amazon-as-a-critical-summit-nears-politicians-must-get-serious-about-deforestation-in-bolivia-205263">The forgotten Amazon: as a critical summit nears, politicians must get serious about deforestation in Bolivia</a>
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<img alt="green anaconda underwater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576399/original/file-20240219-18-42nfsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The two green anaconda species live much of their lives in water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Preserving the web of life</h2>
<p>Our research has peeled back a layer of the mystery surrounding green anacondas. This discovery has significant implications for the conservation of these species – particularly for the newly identified northern green anaconda. </p>
<p>Until now, the two species have been managed as a single entity. But each may have different ecological niches and ranges, and face different threats. </p>
<p>Tailored conservation strategies must be devised to safeguard the future of both species. This may include new legal protections and initiatives to protect habitat. It may also involve measures to mitigate the harm caused by climate change, deforestation and pollution — such as devastating effects of <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2023/05/critics-question-causes-behind-major-oil-spill-in-ecuadorian-amazon/">oil spills</a> on aquatic habitats. </p>
<p>Our research is also a reminder of the complexities involved in biodiversity conservation. When species go unrecognised, they can slip through the cracks of conservation programs. By incorporating genetic taxonomy into conservation planning, we can better preserve Earth’s intricate web of life – both the species we know today, and those yet to be discovered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223549/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Bryan G. Fry is a National Geographic Explorer and has previously received funding as part of this role.</span></em></p>Green anacondas are the world’s heaviest snakes, and among the longest. it’s remarkable this hidden species has slipped under the radar until now.Bryan G. Fry, Professor of Toxicology, School of the Environment, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195922023-12-20T03:17:58Z2023-12-20T03:17:58ZCarbon in, carbon out: Australia’s ‘carbon budget’ assessment reveals astonishing boom and bust cycles<p>If you really want to know how much Australia contributes to the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, you have to study all the “sources” and “sinks”. </p>
<p>Sources release CO₂ into the atmosphere, while sinks take it out. There are sources from human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, and there are natural sinks such as plants absorbing CO₂. You can tally it all up on a balance sheet to find the net result. Are we adding to CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, overall? And if so, by how much? </p>
<p>It’s an enormous undertaking, but not impossible. We have just published the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">most comprehensive assessment</a> of Australian CO₂ sources and sinks. It covers the decade from 2010 to 2019, and it reveals some surprising features.</p>
<p>Astonishingly, we found the net annual carbon balance of the entire continent switches from year to year. Australia can be a large net source of CO₂ one year and a large net CO₂ sink the next, in response to our increasingly variable climate. That makes it harder to detect long-term trends and understand whether our natural carbon sinks are growing or decreasing. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-co-emissions-hit-record-high-yet-again-in-2023-216436">Fossil CO₂ emissions hit record high yet again in 2023</a>
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<h2>What is the contemporary carbon budget?</h2>
<p>Our research reveals what we call the “contemporary carbon budget” for Australia. </p>
<p>This budget is different from the “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5">remaining carbon budget</a>”, which refers to the CO₂ that can still be emitted before we exceed a certain level of warming.</p>
<p>We constructed the contemporary budget using a wide variety of data and modelling approaches. We needed to estimate the carbon “fluxes” (sources and sinks) of land-based ecosystems, freshwater bodies, and of human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land clearing and revegetation.</p>
<p>We also used global assessments, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-updates">Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a>, and <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au">trade statistics</a>. And we used atmospheric and satellite CO₂ information to help determine the Australian carbon balance, as well as other satellite-based data to estimate Australia’s fire emissions.</p>
<p>We developed this carbon budget with the best available data and scientific tools. However, large uncertainties such as data gaps and model limitations remain for some of the estimates. We report all uncertainties in the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">research paper</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colourful infographic explaining Australia's Carbon Budget 2010-2019" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s Carbon Budget 2010-2019. A product of the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub; and a contribution to the Global Carbon Project - Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: NESP-2</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon in, carbon out</h2>
<p>The biggest CO₂ source from Australia’s human activities is fossil fuels, with an average of 403 million tonnes of CO₂ for the decade 2010-19. That can be broken down into coal (44%), oil (34%), gas (18%), gas flaring (3%) and cement (1%).</p>
<p><iframe id="XazPL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XazPL/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Emissions from wildfires (natural) and prescribed burning (human-caused) were 568 million tonnes of CO₂ a year which, unlike fossil fuels, are largely offset by subsequent vegetation regrowth. This led to a net CO₂ accumulation in the atmosphere of 36 million tonnes a year. CO₂ emissions from the Black Summer fires in 2019 were exceptionally high at 951 million tonnes, much of which has already returned to vegetation after three years of above-average rainfall.</p>
<p>Rivers, lakes and reservoirs – both natural and human-made – are also sources of CO₂, contributing 82 million tonnes.</p>
<p>Natural forests, savannas and the large expanses of rangelands all contributed to removing vast amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere at a rate of more than 388 million tonnes a year. </p>
<p>Coastal ecosystems “blue carbon” such as mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses soaked up 61 million tonnes of CO₂ a year, further adding to Australia’s CO₂ sinks. However, estuaries, including tidal systems, deltas and lagoons, released 27 million tonnes of CO₂ into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The oceans surrounding Australia are also strong CO₂ sinks, removing about 183 million tonnes of CO₂ a year. This highlights the important role of the oceans, in addition to the land sink, in slowing the buildup of atmospheric CO₂ due to human emissions.</p>
<h2>Exported carbon</h2>
<p>Every year, about 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ are exported in the form of fossil fuels, primarily coal and natural gas.</p>
<p><iframe id="HJjc6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HJjc6/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A further 22 million tonnes of embedded CO₂ are exported every year in products such as wheat, wood pellets and livestock. </p>
<p>When these exported fossil fuels and products are consumed overseas, they release their carbon content into the atmosphere as CO₂.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> and rules supporting the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> only require nations to report emissions released from their own territory. Emissions from exports are counted by the countries where the fossil fuels and products are eventually consumed.</p>
<h2>The flip-flop carbon dynamics</h2>
<p>We have long known about the “boom and bust” dynamics of Australia’s vegetation growth as it responds to periods of above-average rainfall and drought.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An animated map of Australia with blue, red and yellow colouring to show levels of carbon released by the ecosystem." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Monthly gross primary production of carbon, since January 2015. The Conversation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">Data supplied by author</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we never imagined the entire nation could flip-flop so quickly from being a very strong and globally significant CO₂ sink, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-rains-made-australia-a-giant-green-global-carbon-sink-26646">in the La Niña of 2010-11</a>, to being a major source of CO₂. But that’s precisely what happened as drought and fire changed the carbon accounts of Australia, during the southeast drought of 2018-19 and the following Black Summer fires in 2019.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">A staggering 1.8 million hectares burned in 'high-severity' fires during Australia's Black Summer</a>
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<h2>What this tells us about the path to net zero</h2>
<p>When we put all of the land-based CO₂ sources and sinks together, overall Australia was a net source to the atmosphere of 200 million tonnes of CO₂ a year during 2010-19. This drops to 140 million tonnes of CO₂ a year if we count the sinks from coastal ecosystems.</p>
<p>This means CO₂ sinks are partially offsetting fossil fuel emissions. This is something we have also estimated at the global scale, where <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/carbonbudget2023/">about one-third</a> of global fossil fuel emissions are removed by terrestrial land-based CO₂ sinks.</p>
<p>While this highlights the important role natural CO₂ sinks play in slowing climate change, it does not imply we have less work to do to reach the net zero emissions target.</p>
<p>That is because natural CO₂ sinks <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-resolving-how-land-emissions-are-counted-is-critical-for-tracking-climate-progress/">are already accounted</a> for in estimates of the remaining carbon budgets and decarbonisation pathways to stabilise the climate. Accordingly, the Paris Agreement calls for achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, the so-called net zero target.</p>
<p>The large year-to-year variability of Australia’s non-anthropogenic carbon dynamics also underscores the need for a comprehensive and long-term monitoring and modelling observatory system to track the evolution of sources and sinks. We need high quality data supplementing the National Greenhouse Accounts to support decisions around how to use Australia’s natural assets to mitigate climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks-217355">Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yohanna Villalobos receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and CSIRO Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Smith receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Swedish Research Council, European Union and R&D funding programs of the New South Wales Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Briggs receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub and is a member of the ACT Greens.</span></em></p>The most comprehensive Australian carbon budget assessment completed to date shows the nation flip-flops from source to sink of carbon emissions, depending on the prevailing conditions.Yohanna Villalobos, Postdoctoral research fellow, Lund UniversityBenjamin Smith, Director of Research, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROPeter Briggs, Scientific Programmer and Data Analyst, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198942023-12-15T19:26:46Z2023-12-15T19:26:46ZPaying people to replant tropical forests − and letting them harvest the timber − can pay off for climate, justice and environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565848/original/file-20231214-23-sya0my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C14%2C3300%2C2183&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Planting trees on deforested lands in Panama.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stri.si.edu/facility/agua-salud">Jorge Aleman/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical forest landscapes are home to millions of <a href="https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/worlds-transformed-indigenous-peoples-health-changing">Indigenous peoples</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0905455107">small-scale farmers</a>. Just about <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/11/10/9698574/africa-diversity-map">every square meter of land</a> is spoken for, even if claims are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00847-w">not formally recognized by governments</a>.</p>
<p>These local landholders hold the key to a valuable solution as the world tries to slow climate change – restoring deforested tropical landscapes for a healthier future.</p>
<p>Tropical forests are <a href="https://eos.org/editors-vox/why-tropical-forests-are-important-for-our-well-being">vital to Earth’s climate and biodiversity</a>, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-06-football-pitch-tropical-forest-lost.html">but a soccer field-size area</a> of mature tropical forest is burned or cut down about every 5 seconds to clear space for crops and cattle today.</p>
<p>While those trees may be lost, the land still has potential. Tropical forests’ combination of year-round sunshine and high rainfall can lead to high growth rates, suggesting that areas where tropical forests once grew could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501639">valuable sites for reforestation</a>. In fact, a host of <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">international agreements</a> and <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org/">declarations</a> envision just this.</p>
<p>For reforestation projects to make a dent in climate change, however, they have to work with and for the people who live there.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t3-IBx0AAAAJ&hl=en">forest</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6fq4FOEAAAAJ&hl=en">ecologists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5SejyLsAAAAJ&hl=en">involved in</a> tropical forest restoration, we have been studying effective ways to compensate people for the ecosystem services flowing from their land. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43861-4">new study</a>, we show how compensation that also allows landholders to harvest and sell some of the trees could provide powerful incentives and ultimately benefit everyone.</p>
<h2>The extraordinary value of ecosystem services</h2>
<p>Tropical forests are celebrated for their extraordinary biodiversity, with their preservation seen as <a href="https://eos.org/editors-vox/why-tropical-forests-are-important-for-our-well-being">essential for protecting life on Earth</a>. They are reservoirs of vast carbon stocks, slowing down climate change. However, when tropical forests are cleared and burned, they release <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1354">copious amounts of carbon dioxide</a>, a greenhouse gas that drives climate change.</p>
<p>Programs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705503104">offering payments</a> for <a href="https://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.html">ecosystem services</a> are designed to help keep those forests and other ecosystems healthy by compensating landholders for goods and services produced by nature that are often taken for granted. For example, forests <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013956">moderate stream flows and reduce flood risks</a>, support <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=ca9433en#">bees and other pollinators</a> that benefit neighboring croplands, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121">help regulate climate</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Deforested hills seen from the air, with the light green coloring of newly planted saplings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical forests burned or clear-cut can be restored, like these newly planted (upper left) and naturally regrowing (lower right) watersheds at Agua Salud in Panama.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcos Guerra/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In recent years, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.958879">cottage industry</a> has grown up around paying people to reforest land for the carbon it can hold. It has been driven in part by corporations and other institutions looking for ways to meet their commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions by paying projects to reduce or prevent emissions elsewhere.</p>
<p>Early iterations of projects that pay landholders for ecosystem services <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.06.001">have been criticized</a> for focusing too much on economic efficiency, sometimes at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biu146">expense of social and environmental concerns</a>.</p>
<p>Win-win solutions – where environmental and social concerns are both accounted for – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/701698">may not be the most economically efficient</a> in the short term, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12219">they can lead to longer-term sustainability</a> as participants feel a sense of pride and responsibility for the project’s success. </p>
<p>That longer-term sustainability is essential for trees’ carbon storage, because many decades of growth is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10311-023-01598-y">required to build up stored carbon</a> and combat climate change. </p>
<h2>Why timber can be a triple win</h2>
<p>In the study, we looked at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43861-4">ways to maximize all three priorities</a> – environmental, economic and social benefits – in forest restoration, focusing on infertile land.</p>
<p>It may come as a surprise, but most soils in the tropics are <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1515-2010">extraordinarily infertile</a>, with concentrations of phosphorus and other essential nutrients an order of magnitude or more lower than in crop-producing areas of the northern hemisphere. This makes restoring tropical forests through reforestation <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/phantom-forests-tree-planting-climate-change">more complex</a> than simply planting trees – these areas also require maintenance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Looking up from the base of a tall tree toward its crown and the sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Species like <em>Terminalia amazonia</em>, valuable for commercial logging, can grow quickly, storing carbon in their wood as they grow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stri.si.edu/facility/agua-salud">Andres Hernandez/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study we used some 1.4 million tree measurements taken over 15 years at the <a href="https://stri.si.edu/">Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute</a>’s <a href="https://stri.si.edu/facility/agua-salud">Agua Salud</a> site in Panama to project carbon sequestration and potential timber revenues. We looked at naturally regrowing forests, native tree species plantations and an effort to rehabilitate a failed teak plantation by planting high-value native trees known to grow on low-fertility soils <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.925877">to test routes to profitability</a>.</p>
<p>One set of solutions stood out: We found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/701698">giving landholders</a> both payments for carbon storage and the ability to generate revenue through timber production on the land could lead to vibrant forests and financial gains for the landholder.</p>
<p>It may seem counterintuitive to suggest timber harvesting when the goal is to restore forests, but allowing landholders to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-022-09906-0">generate timber revenue</a> can give them an incentive to protect and manage planted forests over time.</p>
<p>Regrowing trees on a deforested landscape, whether natural regrowth or plantations, is a net win for climate change, as trees take <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01379-4">vast amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere</a>. New forests that are selectively logged or plantations that are harvested in 30 to 80 years can help slow climate change while the world cuts emissions and expands carbon capture technologies.</p>
<h2>Reliable payments matter</h2>
<p>The structure of the payments is also important. We found that reliable annual carbon payments to rural landlords to regrow forests could match or surpass the income they might otherwise get from clearing land for cattle, thus making the transition to raising trees possible.</p>
<p>When cash payments are based instead on measurements of tree growth, they can vary widely year to year and among planting strategies. With the costs involved, that can stand in the way of effective land management to combat climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three charts, all rising swiftly in the first 10 years but then declining." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart of three different types of forest restoration shows how variable payments for carbon storage would be if they were based on measured growth rather than average growth over 30 years. When payments decline over time, the incentive to nurture and protect those forests disappears. The blue line represents a flat payment of US$130 per hectare.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43861-4">Agua Salud/Smithsonian Institution</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using flat annual payments instead guarantees a stable income and will help encourage more landholders to enroll. We are now using that method in Panama’s Indigenous <a href="https://stri.si.edu/story/indigenous-reforestation">Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca</a>. The project pays residents to plant and nurture native trees over 20 years.</p>
<h2>Shifting risk to buyers of carbon offsets</h2>
<p>From a practical perspective, flat annual carbon payments and other cost-sharing strategies to plant trees shift the burden of risk from participants to carbon buyers, often companies in wealthy countries.</p>
<p>The landholders get paid even if actual growth of the trees falls short, and everyone benefits from the ecosystem services provided.</p>
<p>While win-win solutions may not initially appear to be economically efficient, our work helps to illustrate a viable path forward – where environmental, social and economic objectives can be met.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jefferson S. Hall receives funding from the US government via the Smithsonian Institution, Stanly Motta, Frank and Kristin Levinson, the Hoch family, U-Trust, and the Mark and Rachel Rohr Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Sinacore receives funding from the Mark and Rachel Rohr Foundation, Stanly Motta, Frank and Kristin Levinson, the Hoch family, and the Smithsonian.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michiel van Breugel receives funding from Singapore’s Ministry of Education and the Future Cities Lab Global Program of the ETH-Singapore Centre, which is funded by National Research Foundation Singapore.</span></em></p>It might seem counterintuitive to suggest timber harvesting when the goal is to restore forests, but that gives landholders the economic incentive to protect and manage forests over time.Jefferson S. Hall, Staff Scientist and Director, Agua Salud Project, Smithsonian InstitutionKatherine Sinacore, Postdoctoral Fellow, Agua Salud Project, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Smithsonian InstitutionMichiel van Breugel, Associate Professor of Environmental Science, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176342023-12-07T16:19:33Z2023-12-07T16:19:33ZBillions have been raised to restore forests, with little success. Here’s the missing ingredient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564271/original/file-20231207-29-l6900w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6720%2C4476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cropped-photo-african-american-farm-worker-2183118243">Yaroslav Astakhov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Protecting and restoring forests is one of the cheapest and most effective options for mitigating the carbon emissions heating Earth. </p>
<p>Since the third UN climate change summit, held in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, different mechanisms have been trialled to raise money and help countries reduce deforestation and restore degraded forests. First there was Kyoto’s clean development mechanism, then the UN-REDD programme initiated at COP13 in Bali in 2008. Voluntary carbon market schemes came into effect after COP21 in Paris in 2015, but all met with limited success. </p>
<p>In some cases, these schemes <a href="https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/page/Quality-Assessment-of-REDD+-Carbon-Crediting-EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY.pdf">interfered</a> with communities that have tended and nurtured forests for generations, restricting their access to the forest for fuel, grazing and food. Meanwhile, deforestation has proceeded under the aegis of global markets hungry for beef, palm oil <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-supply-chains-are-devouring-whats-left-of-earths-unspoilt-forests-198625">and other commodities</a>.</p>
<p>The world is far off track to reduce deforestation to zero by 2030, or meet its target of restoring over 350 million hectares.</p>
<p>At the current climate talks, COP28 in Dubai, Brazil has proposed a “tropical forests forever fund” with an outlay of US$250 billion, which would <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/12/COP28-Galvanizes-Finance-and-Global-Unity-for-Forests-and-the-Ocean">pay countries</a> to conserve or expand their forests. But how can the world be confident that the result will be different this time?</p>
<p>The work of one academic, Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom, can tell us why previous efforts to restore forests have failed – and what a more effective approach might look like.</p>
<h2>Bundles of rights</h2>
<p>Nearly 295 million people in developing countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America live on land that has been identified as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-01282-2#:%7E:text=Forest%2520landscape%2520restoration%2520that%2520prioritizes,environmental%2520justice%2520and%2520sustainable%2520development.">ripe for forest restoration</a>. The right to extract timber or plant trees ultimately lies with the state in these places, so it is up to the state to set targets for increasing tree coverage or how much carbon the land stores, regardless of how it affects the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/11/947/5903754">communities living there</a>.</p>
<p>Over 73% (about 3 billion hectares) of global forested land is <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/2020/en/">under state control</a>. One of the arguments for allowing governments to retain ownership of these forests, including the right to manage them, is the notion of the “tragedy of the commons”: in the absence of an all-powerful governing entity, people will overuse shared resources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three rangers in military-style uniforms standing in a tropical forest thicket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564286/original/file-20231207-23-c896oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Strict state control is not always a recipe for success in conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kibale-forest-uganda-oct-26-2017-1518063899">JordiStock/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, Ostrom’s work on the commons in forests, fishing grounds and grazing pastures shows that communities tend to protect and sustainably use common resources – provided they have rights, tenure, and the ability to decide rules for managing them.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01863-6">study</a> examined forest commons in 15 tropical countries, where governments own the forest but have allowed local communities informal or customary rights of use and management. The authors noted that these forest commons had a high variety of tree species, and offered enough fodder and fuel wood to sustain livelihoods in the local community. The wealth of biomass in these forests indicated a lot of carbon was also being stored.</p>
<p>These findings seem to affirm that forests used and managed by Indigenous and rural communities can support global objectives for carbon and biodiversity, while meeting the needs of local people.</p>
<p>Ostrom’s research identified five important <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3146375?origin=crossref">bundles of rights</a> that allow communities to sustainably manage a parcel of land in such commons. These are: access, withdrawal, management, exclusion, and alienation. </p>
<p>Access and withdrawal rights are the minimum required for communities to go into a forest and collect timber, flowers, leaves and grasses for their subsistence and to sell commercially. The most important of these rights, at least in terms of forest restoration, is management rights, including the right to decide where and what type of trees to plant in order to restore a forest.</p>
<p>But Ostrom found that these rights are worthless unless imbued with secure “<a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/c6ded0bb-c052-5802-9659-b93746c82019/">tenure</a>” – in other words, confidence that land users would not be arbitrarily deprived of their rights over particular parcels of land.</p>
<p>Attempts by governments to provide partial management rights to local communities in recent decades have <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26393067?seq=8">disappointed</a> when it comes to restoring forests. For example, India has attempted to revive degraded forests since 1991 through its joint forest management programme, which offers partial rights to communities that are invited to help prepare a management plan. But without legally binding rights or secure tenure, this approach has shown <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344909002274">limited success</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, India’s forest rights act 2006, the first of its kind globally, provided local communities that had traditionally used an area of forested land with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934123001685?casa_token=zZCXQa7V2yoAAAAA:sRJJ2wisUYVvAx-FagvRHcnfmioWoaUOQgyGYm3t808u_67LNIpcBV6YUk7_I2ASTNVim8E2FQ">full management rights and secure tenure</a>. The result has been restored forests and communities benefiting from increased sales of bamboo and tendu (leaves for rolling tobacco), <a href="https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/18/special-articles/implementation-community-forest-rights.html">improving livelihoods</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two women making bidi cigarettes out of tendu leaves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564287/original/file-20231207-29-iy7909.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian women making bidi, traditional handmade cigarettes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burhanpur-madhya-pradesh-india-05-jan-1903477321">Parikh Mahendra N/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Empower forest communities</h2>
<p>To restore Earth’s forests and mitigate climate change, states should devolve management rights to the communities in these land parcels and grant them secure tenure.</p>
<p>But how should these commons be governed? Ostrom’s many years of research are, again, a useful guide. She <a href="https://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons/index.html">advocated</a> for clear boundaries defining the community’s rights, rules for forest use, the rights of all members of a community to participate in making those rules (including women and marginal communities), collective decision-making on managing resources, effective monitoring, graduated sanctions for rule violations, conflict resolution mechanisms, and a nested governance structure when multiple communities have rights over the same resources.</p>
<p>There are clear limitations on Indigenous and forest-dependent communities to access the finance that might aid them in their restoration work. Brazil’s proposed fund, and existing climate finance mechanism such as REDD+ and the green climate fund, must be made accessible to these forest communities. This would be easier if they had secure rights and tenure, with a clear set of management rules.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dhanapal Govindarajulu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When forest communities have secure rights and tenure, the results can be miraculous.Dhanapal Govindarajulu, Postgraduate Researcher, Global Development Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164362023-12-05T00:00:39Z2023-12-05T00:00:39ZFossil CO₂ emissions hit record high yet again in 2023<p>Global emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂), in yet another year of growth, will increase by 1.1% in 2023. These emissions will hit a record 36.8 billion tonnes. That’s the finding of the <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Project’s</a> 18th annual report card on the state of the <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/">global carbon budget</a>, which we released today.</p>
<p>Fossil CO₂ includes emissions from the combustion and use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and cement production. Adding CO₂ emissions and removals from land-use change, such as deforestation and reforestation, human activities are projected to emit 40.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2023.</p>
<p>The world’s vegetation and oceans continue to remove about half of all CO₂ emissions. The rest builds up in the atmosphere and is causing increasing warming of the planet. </p>
<p>At current emission levels, the remaining carbon budget for a one-in-two chance to limit warming to 1.5°C will likely be exceeded in seven years, and in 15 years for 1.7°C. The need to cut emissions has never been so urgent. </p>
<h2>Emissions from every fossil source are up</h2>
<p>Fossil CO₂ emissions now account for about 90% of all CO₂ emissions from human activities. Emissions from every single fossil source increased this year compared to 2022:</p>
<ul>
<li>coal (41% of global CO₂ emissions) up 1.1%</li>
<li>oil (32%) up 1.5%</li>
<li>natural gas (21%) up 0.5%</li>
<li>cement (4%) up 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph showing emissions from fossil fuels, land-use changes and total emissions from 1960 to 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All fossil fuel sources are driving the increase in total CO₂ emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Budget 2023/Global Carbon Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although global emissions have increased, the picture for individual countries is more diverse. There are some signs of progress towards decarbonisation.</p>
<p>China’s emissions (31% of the global total) increased by 4% with growth in all fossil fuel sources. The highest relative growth was from oil emissions. This was in part due to the transport sector’s recovery after COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns.</p>
<p>The United States’ emissions (14% of global) are down by 3%. The rapid retirement of coal-fired power plants drove most of this decline. US coal emissions are the lowest since 1903.</p>
<p>India’s emissions (8% of global) increased by 8.2%. Emissions for all fossil fuels grew by 5% or more, with coal the highest at 9.5%. India is now the world’s third-largest fossil CO₂ emitter.</p>
<p>European Union emissions (7% of global) are down by 7.4%. This decline was due to both high renewable energy penetration and the impacts on energy supply of the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>During the decade of 2013-2022, 26 countries had declining fossil CO₂ emission trends while their economies continued to grow. The list includes Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Romania, South African, United Kingdom and USA.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Emissions by individual countries from 1960 to 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Individual country performances vary widely, but there are some signs of progress towards decarbonisation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Budget 2023/Global Carbon Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Total CO₂ emissions are near a peak</h2>
<p>While fossil CO₂ emissions continue to increase, net emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation (CO₂ source), minus CO₂ removals, such as reforestation (CO₂ sink), appear to be falling. However, estimates of emissions from land-use change are highly uncertain and less accurate overall than for fossil fuel emissions. </p>
<p>Our preliminary estimate shows net emissions from land-use change were 4.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2023. These emissions follow a small but relatively uncertain decline over the past two decades. </p>
<p>The declining trend was due to decreasing deforestation and a small increase in reforestation. The highest emitters are Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These three countries contribute 55% of net global CO₂ emissions from land-use change. </p>
<p>When we combine all CO₂ emissions from human activities (fossil and land use), we find very little trend in total emissions over the past decade. If confirmed, this would imply global CO₂ emissions from human activities are not growing further but remain at very high record levels. </p>
<p>Stable CO₂ emissions, at about 41 billion tonnes per year, will lead to continuing rapid CO₂ accumulation in the atmosphere and climate warming. To stabilise the climate, CO₂ emissions from human activities must reach net zero. This means any residual CO₂ emissions must be balanced by an equivalent CO₂ removal.</p>
<h2>Nature’s a big help, with a little human help</h2>
<p>Terrestrial vegetation and ocean absorb about half of all CO₂ emissions. This fraction has remained remarkably stable for six decades.</p>
<p>Besides the natural CO₂ sinks, humans are also removing CO₂ from the atmosphere through deliberate activities. We estimate permanent reforestation and afforestation over the past decade have removed about 1.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. </p>
<p>This is equivalent to 5% of fossil fuel emissions per year. </p>
<p>Other non-vegetation strategies are in their infancy. They removed 0.01 million tonnes of CO₂. </p>
<p>Machines (direct air carbon capture and storage) pulled 0.007 million tonnes of CO₂ out of the atmosphere. Enhanced weathering projects, which accelerate natural weathering processes to increase the CO₂ uptake by spreading certain minerals, accounted for the other 0.004 million tonnes. This is more than a million times smaller than current fossil fuel emissions.</p>
<h2>The remaining carbon budget</h2>
<p>From January 2024, the remaining carbon budget for a one-in-two chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C has been reduced to 275 billion tonnes of CO₂. This budget will used up in seven years at 2023 emission levels. </p>
<p>The carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.7°C has been reduced to 625 billion tonnes of CO₂, with 15 years left at current emissions. The budget for staying below 2°C is 1,150 billion tonnes of CO₂ – 28 years at current emissions.</p>
<p>Reaching net zero by 2050 requires total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to decrease on average by 1.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. That’s comparable to the fall in 2020 emissions resulting from COVID-19 measures (-2.0 billion tonnes of CO₂). </p>
<p>Without additional negative emissions (CO₂ removal), a straight decreasing line of CO₂ emissions from today to 2050 (when many countries aspire to achieve net zero CO₂ or the more ambitious net zero for all greenhouse gases) would lead to a global mean surface temperature of 1.7°C, breaching the 1.5°C limit.</p>
<p>Renewable energy production is at a record high and growing fast. To limit climate change fossil and land-use change, CO₂ emissions must be cut much more quickly and ultimately reach net zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216436/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 821003 (4C), from the UN Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), and from the UK Royal Society under grant RP\R1\191063 (Research Professorship). Corinne Le Quéré Chairs the French High council on climate and is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee. Her position here is her own and does not necessarily reflect that of these groups.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C) and 958927 (CoCO2), and Horizon Europe grant agreement No 101056306 (IAM COMPACT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Hauck receives research funding from the Helmholtz Association, European Commission, and German ministry for science and education (BMBF). She is affiliated with Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar- and Marine Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Pongratz receives funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in the CDRterra program and from the Horizon Europe projects ForestNavigator and RESCUE.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippe Ciais receives funding from the BNP Paribas Foundation (philanthropic gift for the Global Carbon Altas), the 4C EU Horizon2020 funded project, and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Andrew receives funding the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement Nos. 821003 (4C) and 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Jackson receives funding from the CA Energy Commission, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, UNEP, and HT LLC.</span></em></p>Record emissions are fast shrinking the remaining amount of carbon dioxide we can emit if we are to limit global warming. At current rates, we’ll use up the budget for a 1.5°C outcome in seven years.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaGlen Peters, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloJudith Hauck, Helmholtz Young Investigator group leader and deputy head, Marine Biogeosciences section a Alfred Wegener Institute, Universität BremenJulia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems, Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichPhilippe Ciais, Directeur de recherche au Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of ExeterRobbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloRob Jackson, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184142023-12-02T09:16:18Z2023-12-02T09:16:18Z7 food and agriculture innovations needed to protect the climate and feed a rapidly growing world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562358/original/file-20231129-21-s1jmd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2048%2C1364&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Managing methane from belching cattle is a top innovation priority.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/48685288911">Lance Cheung/USDA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time ever, food and agriculture took center stage at the annual United Nations climate conference in 2023. <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">More than 150 countries</a> signed <a href="https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-15436-2023-INIT/en/pdf">a declaration, committing</a> to make their food systems – everything from production to consumption – a focal point in national strategies to address climate change.</p>
<p>While the declaration is thin on concrete actions to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions, it draws attention to a crucial issue.</p>
<p>The global food supply is increasingly facing disruptions from extreme heat and storms. It is also a major contributor to climate change, responsible for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9">one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions</a> from human activities. This tension is why agriculture innovation is increasingly being elevated in international climate discussions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Women farmers work as rain falls from a storm cloud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmers work in a field during monsoon rains in Madhya Pradesh, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tataimitra/9421742217">Rajarshi Mitra via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At present, agriculture provides enough food for the world’s 8 billion people, although many do not have adequate access. But to feed a global population of 10 billion in 2050, croplands would need to expand by <a href="https://research.wri.org/sites/default/files/2019-07/D_REP_Food_Course2_web.pdf">660,000 to 1.2 million square miles</a> (171 million to 301 million hectare) relative to 2010. That would <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">lead to more deforestation</a>, which contributes to climate change. Further, some practices widely relied on to produce sufficient food, such as using <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-023-00511-0">synthetic fertilizers</a>, also contribute to climate change.</p>
<p>Simply eliminating deforestation and these practices without alternative solutions would decrease the world’s food supply and farmers’ incomes. Fortunately, innovations are emerging that can help.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">report released Dec. 2</a>, the <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture</a>, founded by Nobel-winning economist <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/team/">Michael Kremer</a>, identifies seven priority areas for innovation that can help ensure sufficient food production, minimize greenhouse gas emissions and be scaled up to reach hundreds of millions of people.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://keough.nd.edu/people/paul-winters/">agriculture economist</a> and executive director for the commission. Three innovations in particular stand out for their ability to scale up quickly and pay off economically.</p>
<h2>Accurate, accessible weather forecasts</h2>
<p>With extreme weather leaving crops increasingly vulnerable and farmers struggling to adapt, accurate weather forecasts are crucial. Farmers need to know what to expect, both in the days ahead and farther out, to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw080">make strategic decisions</a> about planting, irrigating, fertilizing and harvesting.</p>
<p>Yet access to accurate, detailed forecasts is <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w25894">rare for farmers</a> in many low- and middle-income countries.</p>
<p>Our assessment shows that investing in technology to collect data and make forecasts widely available – such as by radio, text message or WhatsApp – can pay off many times over for economies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man stands in a rice field in Mozambique after a storm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forecasts by text message can help farmers prepare for extreme weather and time their planting and harvesting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/xavier-paulino-tapera-a-subsistence-farmer-surveys-his-rice-news-photo/1132140855?adppopup=true">Wikus de Wet/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, accurate state-level forecasts of seasonal monsoon rainfall totals would help Indian farmers optimize sowing and planting times, providing an estimated <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w25894">US$3 billion in benefits</a> over five years – at a cost of around $5 million.</p>
<p>If farmers in Benin received accurate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106178">forecasts by text message</a>, we estimate that they could save each farmer $110 to $356 per year, a large amount in that country.</p>
<p>More sharing of information among neighboring countries, using platforms like the World Meteorological Organization’s <a href="https://wmo.int/site/global-framework-climate-services-gfcs">Climate Services Information System</a>, could also improve forecasts.</p>
<h2>Microbial fertilizers</h2>
<p>Another innovation priority involves expanding the use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-restore-our-soils-feed-the-microbes-79616">microbial fertilizers</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/fertilizer-prices-are-soaring-and-thats-an-opportunity-to-promote-more-sustainable-ways-of-growing-crops-183418">Nitrogen fertilizer</a> is widely used to increase crop yields, but it is typically made from natural gas and is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18773-w">major source of greenhouse gas emissions</a>. Microbial fertilizers use bacteria to help plants and soil absorb the nutrients they need, thereby <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/farmers-test-microbes-nourish-crops-climate-pressure-grows-costs-rise-2022-02-03/">reducing the amount of nitrogen fertilizer needed</a>.</p>
<p>Studies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.02204">found that microbial fertilizers could increase legume yields</a> by 10% to 30% in healthy soil and generate billions of dollars in benefits. Other microbial fertilizers work with corn, and scientists are working on more advancements.</p>
<p>Soybean farmers in Brazil have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s42770-021-00618-9">using a rhizobia-based microbial fertilizer</a> for decades to improve their yields and cut synthetic fertilizer costs. But this technique is not as widely known elsewhere. Scaling it up will require funding to expand testing to more countries, but it has great potential payoff for farmers, soil health and the climate.</p>
<h2>Reducing methane from livestock</h2>
<p>A third innovation priority is livestock, the source of <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb1922en/cb1922en.pdf">roughly two-thirds</a> of agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions. With demand for beef projected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/C2014-0-03542-3">rise 80% by 2050</a> as low- and middle-income countries grow wealthier, reducing those emissions is essential.</p>
<p>Several innovative methods for reducing livestock methane emissions target enteric fermentation, which leads to methane belches.</p>
<p>Adding algae, <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">seaweed</a>, lipids, tannins or certain synthetic compounds to cattle feed can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AN20295">change the chemical reactions</a> that generate methane during digestion. Studies have found some techniques have the potential to reduce methane emissions by a quarter to nearly 100 percent. When cattle produce less methane, they also waste less energy, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fanim.2021.641590">go into growth</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2020-18908">milk production</a>, providing a boost for farmers.</p>
<p>The method is still expensive, but further development and private investment could help scale it up and lower the cost. </p>
<p>Gene editing, either of livestock or the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-021-01014-7">microorganisms in their stomachs</a>, could also someday hold potential.</p>
<h2>Scaling up agriculture innovation</h2>
<p>The Innovation Commission also identified <a href="http://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">four other priorities for innovation</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Helping farmers and communities implement better rainwater harvesting.</p></li>
<li><p>Lowering the cost of <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-ai-can-help-farmers-tackle-the-challenges-of-modern-agriculture-213210">digital agriculture</a> that can help farmers use irrigation, fertilizer and pesticides most efficiently.</p></li>
<li><p>Encouraging production of alternative proteins to reduce demand for livestock.</p></li>
<li><p>Providing insurance and other social protections to help farmers recover from extreme weather events.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>While promising agricultural innovations exist, commercial incentives to develop and scale them up have fallen short, leading to underinvestment, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man flies drones to spread fertilizer on a field in Kenya." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Providing farmers with information and technology that can increase their resource efficiency are common themes in agriculture innovation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kenya-airways-employee-controls-an-unmanned-aerial-vehicle-news-photo/1244138316">Patrick Meinhardt/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, innovation funding <a href="https://fastercapital.com/content/Investing-in-the-Future--Why-Social-Innovation-Startups-Are-Attracting-Funding.html">has a track record</a> of generating very high social rates of return. This creates an opportunity for public and philanthropic investment in developing and deploying innovations at a scale to reach hundreds of millions of people. Of course, to be effective, any potential innovation must be consistent with – and driven by – national strategies and planned in conjunction with the government, the private sector and civil society.</p>
<p>Two decades ago, global leaders, frustrated that lifesaving vaccines were not reaching hundreds of millions of people who needed them, <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/about-us/partnerships/partners/global-health-partnerships/gavi-alliance">created Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance</a>. They invested billions of dollars to scale up these innovations, helped to immunize over 1 billion children and halved child mortality in 78 lower-income countries.</p>
<p>This year, officials at COP28 are aiming for a similar global response to climate change, food security and agriculture.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Dec. 2, has been updated with the declaration’s signatory count as of Dec. 12.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Winters receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for the work on the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture. He is Executive Director of the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture based out of the Development Innovation Lab at the University of Chicago. He also is providing unpaid technical support to the COP28 Presidency Food System Initiative around the Innovation Pillar.</span></em></p>Food systems are increasingly disrupted by climate disasters, while also being a major contributor to climate change. World leaders at COP28 vowed to do something about it.Paul Winters, Professor of Global Affairs, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175052023-11-22T20:54:28Z2023-11-22T20:54:28ZDeforestation jeopardises agribusiness and food security in Brazil and worldwide<p>The current drought situation in the Amazon, which has taken on a new level of severity this year, is influenced by two exceptional climatic conditions: the abnormally high temperature of the North Atlantic waters and the presence of the El Niño phenomenon. Despite these remarkable climatic conditions, however, the human footprint of this environmental tragedy is also visible. </p>
<p>The rapid progression of this drought and its intensity highlight the need for urgent response actions and support measures to tackle this crisis. In this sense, the protection of the Amazon rainforest is not only vital for biodiversity and the well-being of local communities, but also plays a key role in the stability of the local and regional climate, as well as the survival of agribusiness and global food security.</p>
<p>The part of agribusiness that supports an anti-environmental agenda is testing the capacity and limits of nature itself and could end up being directly affected by transformations that impact agriculture and food security not only in Brazil, but around the world. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.756115/full?mc_cid=84ae26d1c7&mc_eid=8249944246">Extensive research</a> in the Amazon and Cerrado, the vast savanna region of eastern Brazil, has shed light on the intricate interactions between deforestation, climate change and the local, regional and global economies. The <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD029537">studies</a> that our group of researchers from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and the University of Bonn in Germany have carried out show that the current trajectory of deforestation is diminishing the capacity of the Amazon and Cerrado to regulate rainfall patterns, putting the country’s agricultural systems – much of which is rain-fed agriculture – at great risk.</p>
<h2>Scarcity of natural resources</h2>
<p>The rain generated by the Amazon rainforest, on which agribusiness depends, is becoming increasingly scarce. Widespread forest loss results in hydrological and consequently economic losses. And these effects are already a reality: in 2019, a quarter of the southern Brazilian Amazon already reached the critical limit of forest loss. In some regions, the reduction in rainfall due to deforestation is already jeopardising 48% of the total volume recorded for the year. </p>
<p>These most affected areas are, worryingly, large soya producing regions or those where agriculture is likely to expand in the future, such as the north-eastern and south-eastern regions of the state of Pará, the west of the state of Maranhão, the central part of Rondônia and, above all, the soya belt in northern Mato Grosso. And if deforestation continues at the same pace, the losses will be enormous. Our study estimates that they could reach <a href="https://g1.globo.com/natureza/amazonia/noticia/2021/05/10/agronegocio-brasileiro-pode-perder-ate-r-57-bilhoes-por-ano-com-desmatamento-na-amazonia-diz-estudo.ghtml">R$5.7 billion (US$1.16bn) per year</a>.</p>
<p>In short, our studies have highlighted that deforestation not only affects the global climate, but also has significant impacts at regional and local levels. The removal of forests results in higher temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, which directly harms the health of local communities and agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate change. </p>
<p>In addition, deforestation can trigger climate feedbacks that amplify climate change, such as decreased evapotranspiration due to vegetation loss, which can further reduce precipitation and create a cycle of drought and deforestation.</p>
<h2>Analysing the rainy seasons</h2>
<p>Our research in the area began in 2019, when our team conducted a <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD029537">detailed analysis of rainy season data</a> in the Amazon, using information from 112 rain gauges distributed across the south of the region. Complementing this analysis, we employed <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13314">annual data sets on land use</a>, covering the period from 1974 to 2012. The results of this study were enlightening: for every 1 per cent increase in deforestation, there was a delay in the start of the rainy season of between 0.12 and 0.17 days.</p>
<p>In addition, we have clearly demonstrated that the probability of early onset of the rainy season decreases as the fraction of local deforestation increases. These findings have deepened our understanding of the direct implications of deforestation on climate stability in the region, providing valuable information to guide public policy.</p>
<h2>Exceeding critical deforestation limits</h2>
<p>The research then expanded to explore the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22840-7">critical limits of deforestation</a> in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon. We broadened the study area and investigated the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall patterns at different geographical scales. The studies, carried out in 2021, also assessed the impacts of different deforestation policy scenarios on local agriculture.</p>
<p>The results of these studies were equally impressive: the loss of forest in up to 55-60% of the 28-kilometre grid areas led to an increase in rainfall, but exceeding this threshold resulted in a drastic and irreversible reduction in rainfall. This finding emphasised the complexity of the interactions between deforestation and climate, also with significant implications for the environment and the local economy.</p>
<h2>The challenge of the Cerrado</h2>
<p>Over the last two years, our team has also turned its attention to the Cerrado. The expansion of large-scale agriculture has transformed this biome into an important agricultural hub, contributing <a href="https://www.embrapa.br/en/busca-de-noticias/-/noticia/1472281/plantio-de-soja-no-cerrado-e-responsavel-por-mais-de-63-da-producao-nacionalv">63% of Brazil’s grain production</a> and 20% of global soya production. Worryingly, this unbridled expansion in the Cerrado is on the rise, with an alarming <a href="https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/radioagencia-nacional/meio-ambiente/audio/2023-09/bioma-cerrado-teve-494-mil-hectares-desmatados-em-2023">17% increase in deforestation rates</a> by 2023.</p>
<p>In this context, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22840-7">we looked at what has been happening</a> to the climate of the Cerrado, which we identified as having experienced, on average, a delay of 1 month and 26 days in the start of the agricultural rainy season, a 16 per cent reduction in the volume of rainfall and a 2°C increase in the maximum temperature since the 1980s.</p>
<h2>How to limited rainfall reduction by 2050</h2>
<p>It is undeniable that extraordinary climatic factors play a significant role in the current severe drought in the Amazon, especially in the state of Amazonas. The current scenario is aggravated by the convergence of two remarkable climatic conditions. Firstly, the temperature of the North Atlantic waters is abnormally high. This has a direct effect on atmospheric circulation in the region and can affect rainfall patterns.</p>
<p>Secondly, the presence of the El Niño phenomenon, known for its impact on the entire global climate system, is being observed. These combined factors have resulted in the drought establishing itself much more quickly and intensely than normal. This unique combination of climatic events is generating exceptional challenges for communities and local authorities, since water resources, which are essential for life in the Amazon region, are at historically low levels.</p>
<p>Added to these natural conditions is human action. As trees are cut down, the forest’s ability to carry out evapotranspiration and release moisture into the atmosphere is reduced, affecting cloud formation and, consequently, the occurrence of rainfall. In addition, changes in wind patterns and atmospheric currents, influenced by the presence of the forest, are hampered by deforestation, making it difficult to transport moisture to other parts of Brazil. This results in a decrease in precipitation, intensifying prolonged droughts and affecting water availability.</p>
<p>The extensive research that has been carried out by various researchers in the Amazon region and the <a href="http://cerrado.obt.inpe.br/">Cerrado</a> biome, both of which are of vital importance to Brazil, emphasises the need to preserve these areas for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03629-6">the well-being of the planet</a>. This research goes beyond the academic sphere and is recognised internationally, having been incorporated into <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=cb9360en">FAO reports</a> and highlighted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">IPCC AR6 report</a>.</p>
<p>They are relevant in formulating global environmental policies, and also play a crucial role in drawing up policies for forest conservation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting biodiversity in both biomes. They provide a solid base of scientific data on which to base decision-making and conservation strategies at regional and global levels, directly impacting on the preservation of the environment and the <a href="https://www.gov.br/mma/pt-br/plano-para-o-cerrado-entra-em-consulta-publica/texto-ppcerrado-versao-consulta-publica-1.pdf/view">planning of policies</a> for a <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/not-just-carbon-capturing-benefits-forests-climate">more sustainable future</a>, not just for Brazil, but for the whole world.</p>
<p>And if, on the one hand, they show a worrying scenario, on the other they point out that there is light at the end of the tunnel: we estimate that the effective application of conservation policies, including the full implementation of the Forest Code and additional incentives for conservation, could reduce by 24 per cent the total area that would reach the critical limit of rainfall reduction by 2050. </p>
<p>The message is clear: Brazil needs to return to the path of integrating sustainable agricultural production and conservation in the Amazon. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/19/world/americas/brazil-drought.html">This path</a> includes conserving natural areas, adopting low-impact agricultural practices and investing in more efficient and environmentally friendly agricultural technologies. In addition, it is essential to recognise that excessive deforestation damages the international image of the Brazilian agricultural sector, leading many countries and companies to commit to environmental protection and to be <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20210604103943-1xru8">reluctant to do business</a> with sectors that contribute to environmental destruction.</p>
<p>Therefore, the preservation of Brazilian biomes is fundamental not only for environmental preservation, but also for the survival of agribusiness and global food security. Not investing in environmental conservation strategies is an anti-agribusiness attitude. Without the forest, there is no rainfall, and if there is no rainfall, there are losses. And the bill has already arrived for agribusiness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Argemiro Teixeira Leite Filho não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.</span></em></p>Diminishing forests reduces the capacity of the Amazon and Cerrado to regulate rainfall patterns. That’s bad for communities, but also bad for business and global food security.Argemiro Teixeira Leite Filho, Pesquisador do Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto (CSR), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164072023-11-21T16:54:44Z2023-11-21T16:54:44ZTropical forest loss from growing rubber trade is more substantial than previously thought – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560146/original/file-20231117-28-el36oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4193%2C2785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hevea brasiliensis is grown in the world's most biodiverse areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worker-people-working-tapped-rubber-tree-229853572">dangdumrong/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over 4 million hectares of tree cover – an area equivalent to the size of Switzerland – may have been cleared to make space for rubber plantations since the 1990s. Out of all the rubber planted, 1 million hectares may have been established in <a href="https://www.keybiodiversityareas.org/">key biodiversity areas</a> – sites that contribute significantly to biodiversity in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems.</p>
<p>These are the findings of our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06642-z">recent research</a>, which mapped the conversion of land to rubber tree plantations across south-east Asia. The likely pace of forest loss that we found surpasses <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41">previous estimates</a>.</p>
<p>The global demand for natural rubber, which is found in thousands of products including vehicle and aeroplane tyres, is increasing. In <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">separate research</a>, published in July 2023, we estimated that between 2.7 million and 5.3 million additional hectares of plantation area could be needed by 2030 to fulfil this additional demand. This is a concern. Research has found that rubber plantations support <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fconl.12967&file=conl12967-sup-0001-SuppMat.pdf">nowhere near as much</a> biodiversity, nor do they contain as much carbon, as natural forests.</p>
<p>Most natural rubber is made by extracting latex – the liquid sap – from the <em>Hevea brasiliensis</em> tree in a process called “tapping”. As a tropical species, the places suitable for <em>Hevea brasiliensis</em> cultivation coincide with some of the world’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098222031006X">most biodiverse regions</a>. Thailand and Indonesia, for example, are the world’s <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">leading rubber producers</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rubber plantation farming area in the south of Thailand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rubber plantation in southern Thailand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rubber-plantation-farming-area-south-thailand-2271258833">JIMBO EKAPAT</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rubber’s impact on forests</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">reviewed</a> more than 100 case studies to understand what types of land are being converted to rubber. In many cases, rubber replaced natural forests. But we also noted instances of other plantation types and agricultural systems transitioning to rubber. </p>
<p>We then examined national statistics regarding the extent of rubber plantations and their productivity per hectare. Our findings revealed a global trend of expanding rubber areas in producer countries, coupled with static or declining yields. </p>
<p>Low yields are partly due to tapping less frequently in countries where prices are relatively low – though they are also probably caused by suboptimal tapping practices. As existing rubber stockpiles are eventually exhausted, prices should theoretically increase again, potentially leading to more frequent tapping of plantations that are currently not or only infrequently tapped. However, past trends suggest that more land will be established for rubber cultivation to meet the growing demand, rather than using existing plantation land more effectively. </p>
<p>Ivory Coast in west Africa emerged as a new hotspot for expanding rubber plantations. These plantations seem to be displacing cocoa <a href="https://www.fao.org/forestry/agroforestry/80338/en/">agroforests</a> (where trees or shrubs are grown around or among other crops or natural vegetation) in the region.</p>
<p>Using cutting-edge analysis of satellite data, which was based on the unique timing of rubber tree leaf drop compared to other tree cover, we more recently generated <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06642-z#data-availability">high-resolution maps</a> of rubber distribution and the associated deforestation. </p>
<p>Our mapping revealed Cambodia as a country of particular concern, with 40% of rubber plantations associated with deforestation. These plantations were often located within protected areas.</p>
<h2>Supporting livelihoods and economies</h2>
<p>Most rubber that is produced in Asia is grown by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03066150.2012.750605">smallholder farmers</a> – people who farm less than five hectares of land. Rubber production thus forms the basis of many regional economies and supports the livelihoods of millions. Producing rubber sustainably in existing plantations, and avoiding further plantation expansion, is a critical part of protecting forests and supporting people. </p>
<p>In June 2023, the EU adopted a new <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230414IPR80129/parliament-adopts-new-law-to-fight-global-deforestation">regulation</a> to curb the EU market’s impact on global deforestation. Alongside several other commodities, rubber is <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">covered by this legislation</a>. Any company looking to sell products containing these commodities on the EU market can only do so if suppliers can show that they were not sourced from land deforested after December 2020.</p>
<p>On the one hand, there is a risk that the new law may inadvertently marginalise rubber smallholders. Rubber is typically collected by middlemen and can change hands several times before reaching a processing facility. Smallholders will also largely be unaware of the new regulations and often may not have documentation showing their official land tenure. </p>
<p>Given the complexity of tracing smallholder rubber, larger tyre manufacturers and other rubber consumers may choose to source their rubber from industrial plantations that have the resources to prove that their rubber is compliant with the EU’s new regulation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A mechanic pushing a black tyre in a workshop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rubber is found in thousands of products, including vehicle and aeroplane tyres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-mechanic-hands-pushing-black-tire-779811436">Standret/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Opportunities for farmers</h2>
<p>But, accompanied by the need to trace rubber supply, the new regulation could also offer opportunities to help smallholders improve their rubber production methods. Our <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">research</a> from July 2023 found that reducing land availability for rubber expansion could indirectly drive increases in production efficiency on existing land. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017312669?via%3Dihub">evidence</a> that this is taking place in Mato Grosso – the largest soy and cattle-producing state in Brazil. Double cropping (where several crops are planted in the same area and in the same crop year) rates were significantly higher in regions where forest conservation policies were more stringent.</p>
<p>Natural rubber should not be demonised. Rubber plantations have the potential to sequester carbon and continue contributing to the long-term <a href="https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/files/40328214/Mighty_Earth_Agroforestry_Rubber_Report_May_2021.pdf">wellbeing</a> of smallholder farmers. </p>
<p>There is also evidence suggesting that rubber agroforests can support at least some biodiversity. In a <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13530">study</a> published in 2019, we found a higher abundance of butterflies in rubber agroforests compared to monocultures. The presence of birds also increased in tandem with the height of herbaceous vegetation within rubber plots.</p>
<p>But this does not mean that the growing demand for natural rubber should be accepted as inevitable. A clear approach to reducing the adverse effects of rubber on forests and biodiversity is to curb our use of cars, especially in more developed regions where efficient public transport systems are, or can be, established. This would not only address carbon emissions from fossil fuels but would also reduce demand for rubber.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Warren-Thomas receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council/UK Research and Innovation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antje Ahrends receives funding from the UK Research and Innovation’s Global Challenges Research Fund through the Trade, Development and the Environment Hub project (ES/S008160/1) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/X016285/1). The Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh is also supported by the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment.</span></em></p>Rubber plantations are replacing forests, particularly in tropical regions.Eleanor Warren-Thomas, Lecturer in Conservation and Forestry, Bangor UniversityAntje Ahrends, Head of Genetics and Conservation, Royal Botanic Garden EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156582023-11-20T20:56:09Z2023-11-20T20:56:09ZCould the good news story about the ecological crisis be the collective grief we are feeling?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/could-the-good-news-story-about-the-ecological-crisis-be-the-collective-grief-we-are-feeling" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>A summer of <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/105981">wildfires across Canada</a> sat alongside news of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66013854">global deforestation</a>, rapid <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x">loss of Antarctic ice mass</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/28/swiss-glaciers-lose-tenth-volume-in-two-years-climate-crisis">Swiss glacial ice depletion</a>. Then in mid-October, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service delisted 21 species from the Endangered Species Act <a href="https://fws.gov/press-release/2023-10/21-species-delisted-endangered-species-act-due-extinction">due to extinction</a>. </p>
<p>The barrage of bad news stories about the growing ecological crisis may cause people to feel overwhelmed, grief stricken, and at times paralyzed in fear. It is understandable to seek relief from these feelings and look to good news to foster hope. </p>
<p>But, what if the grief you are feeling is the good news story?</p>
<p>As university educators and researchers interested in community health and outdoor experiences, we fearlessly explore the wilderness of both ecological and human loss. Instead of burying dying, death, grief and mourning, we lean into grief — blurring the lines of human and ecological grief in our teaching and community development — as a pathway to collective resilience. </p>
<h2>Ecological grief</h2>
<p>The term <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0092-2">ecological grief</a> may conjure images of solitary grieving, as characterized by the individuated view of human experiences. Grief can, however, serve as a transformative process when it shifts the locus of anxiety from the individual to a collective sphere. </p>
<p>The third Tuesday in November marks <a href="https://www.chpca.ca/campaigns/bereavementday/">National Grief and Bereavement Day</a> in Canada. This is an opportunity to recognize that experiencing grief collectively and actively mourning, as the outward expression of grief, can mitigate the isolating aspects of loss. </p>
<p>Leaning into ecological grief through <a href="https://www.drjenniferatkinson.com/blog/mourning-climate-loss">collective mourning</a> can shift us back to awareness of our interconnectedness with each other and the planet; here we can find collective support and build a collective resilience.</p>
<p>In a society that is generally <a href="https://refugeingrief.com/book/">grief averse</a>, alongside health and psychological professions that emphasize the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/250673/the-wild-edge-of-sorrow-by-francis-weller/9781583949764">individual over the collective</a>, we need a unifying, relational, collective approach to our ecological grief. Compounding the issue is that much of the language we use reinforces the false separation of humans and nature, or further fragments and compartmentalizes one part of the human experience from another. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/hope-and-mourning-in-the-anthropocene-understanding-ecological-grief-88630">Research has shown</a> that across regional biodiversity loss, there are many common human experiences. Extending on this, <a href="https://www.schulich.uwo.ca/epibio/people/faculty/core_appointees/dr_nicole_redvers.html">Nicole Redvers</a>, director of Indigenous Planetary Health at the Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry at Western University, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.678545">suggests that patient and planetary health are ultimately inseparable</a>, as are individual and collective experiences of ecological grief. </p>
<p>The very term ecological grief, although helpful in understanding and articulating this important experience, also arises from language that compartmentalizes ecological grief as a stand-alone experience, as though we humans are not part of our environments and wider ecologies. We are, after all, a part of nature not apart from it.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.uwb.edu/ias/faculty-and-staff/jennifer-atkinson">University of Washington professor</a> of environmental humanities <a href="https://www.drjenniferatkinson.com/about-1">Jennifer Atkinson</a> reminds us that one of the risks of talking about ecological grief as a personal versus social experience is that we foster <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11186-017-9302-6">disenfranchised grief</a>, a loss that is personally experienced but cannot be publicly acknowledged or openly mourned. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Weronika-Kalwak-2">Social and health psychologist Weronika Kalwak</a> and <a href="https://uni-tuebingen.de/en/research/centers-and-institutes/international-center-for-ethics-in-the-sciences-and-humanities/team/vanessa-weihgold/">ecological emotions researcher Vanessa Weihgold</a> encourage us to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.823620">view ecological grief as a relational experience</a> stemming from environmental and social factors rather than arising solely from individual emotions of loss, fear, guilt and shame. This shifts the psychology of ecological grief from the emphasis on individual resilience that dominates contemporary western societies to a more relational and community approach.</p>
<p>Consider befriending grief the next time it visits you. Let it be a reminder that you are a part of this world. </p>
<h2>Public mourning</h2>
<p><a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487524142/health-in-the-anthropocene/">Our research</a> uncovered the way the natural world, in its harshness and beauty, teaches us to grieve through personal and collective experiences of mourning. While grief may feel like an isolating experience, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/10/glacier-grief-how-funerals-and-rituals-can-help-us-mourn-the-loss-of-nature-aoe">public mourning of ecological losses</a> can bring us together in solidarity, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/116766/wild-comfort-by-kathleen-dean-moore/9781590307717">wild comfort</a> and <a href="https://www.counterpointpress.com/books/great-tide-rising/">moral clarity</a> as an impetus for change. </p>
<p>Public mourning can also be a political act that signifies what matters. Let grief be a signal that valued life is being lost. Let it lead to collective and visible mourning, and to honouring these losses and remembering what we cherish and value.</p>
<p>Notice the many ways you may try to avoid this process, for example by rushing to action. The grief you are feeling is part of a collective and connected experience, one that is commensurate with the <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487524142/health-in-the-anthropocene/">death endured within the Anthropocene</a>. Mourning our losses, together, pushes us through numbness and anxiety, toward the reality of the natural cycles of dying and death, and those that humans have accelerated. </p>
<p>In these hard lessons, through the support of collective grieving, we can find the inspiration, resilience and stamina needed to cope with ongoing losses, and to make the changes needed. The good news is that grief changes us, and we must, indeed, make changes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonya Jakubec has received funding from the Government of Alberta. She is affiliated with Alberta Parks, the Friends of Fish Creek Provincial Park Society and the Palliative Care Society of the Bow Valley. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>News about the growing ecological crisis may cause people to feel grief and fear. It is understandable to seek relief from these feelings and look for good news. But what if grief is the good news?Sarah Brown, Assistant Professor, Department of Health and Physical Education and General Education, Mount Royal UniversitySonya L. Jakubec, Professor, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Mount Royal UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156312023-11-16T14:47:59Z2023-11-16T14:47:59ZClimate change and farming: economists warn more needs to be done to adapt in sub-Saharan Africa<p>Sub-Saharan African countries strongly rely on the agricultural and forestry sectors. Agriculture contributes up to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=ZG">60%</a> of some countries’ gross domestic product. But the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change because it relies heavily on climatic factors. This vulnerability is particularly marked in the region because of its slow rate of technological advancement.</p>
<p>As agricultural economists we carried out a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">review</a> of the literature on the climate change challenge for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. We explored the distribution of various climatic factors (like rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events) across the region, and their impact on agriculture. We also investigated what rural farmers were doing to respond to climate change. </p>
<p>We found that the implications of climate change for agricultural and economic development are diverse across the region. It is difficult to predict exactly how climate change will affect agriculture and economic development. </p>
<p>But is is clear that sub-Saharan African countries like Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, and Kenya are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">extremely vulnerable</a> to <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa">climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Farmers are not using effective adaptation strategies. These include planting drought tolerant crop varieties, and conserving water and soil. Limited resources and infrastructure have held them back. Mitigation programmes such as carbon pricing, water management, recycling, afforestation and reforestation have had limited impact. Poor climate change awareness, unstable government policies and political instability have hindered the programmes.</p>
<p>The impact of climate change on vulnerable households will be extreme if adequate measures are not taken in time. Research suggests that countries such as Togo, Nigeria, Congo and Mali will record more agricultural <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf#page=13">losses</a> without adaptation. Governments, international organisations, local communities and other stakeholders need to develop strategies to address the diverse needs of rural farmers in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<h2>What our review found</h2>
<p>The studies we reviewed indicated that patterns of rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events have changed significantly in the region. This trend is not expected to change in future decades.</p>
<p>Sub-Saharan Africa experiences <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">diverse rainfall patterns</a>. Annual rainfall can be as low as 100 millimetres in arid areas in the Sahel and parts of east Africa and over 500 millimetres in tropical areas in central and western Africa. </p>
<p>Temperatures can often exceed 40°C (104°F) during the hottest months. Over the last century, the mean temperature has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000292">increased</a> by about 0.74°C. </p>
<p>The region <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000292">experiences</a> various extreme weather events, including droughts, floods and heatwaves. Coastal areas, especially in the eastern and southern regions, experience <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/cyclones-more-frequent-storms-threaten-africa/">cyclones or tropical storms</a>.</p>
<p>Many studies show that these conditions affect agricultural production and society in a number of ways:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Yield reduction: Climate change reduces crop yield. Higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, droughts and floods affect harvests. For instance, farmers in Nigeria have seen lower yields caused by new pests, disease outbreaks and the drying up of rivers. </p></li>
<li><p>Food insecurity: Poor agricultural productivity often leads to food insecurity, which affects both rural and urban populations. Lower crop yields can cause prices to rise. Reduced access to food can worsen malnutrition and hunger.</p></li>
<li><p>Income loss and poverty: Lower agricultural output affects the income of smallholder farmers. This can increase poverty levels and economic vulnerability. We found a decline in cereal production over the last decade in Ghana, Congo and South Africa. </p></li>
<li><p>Decreased livestock productivity: Higher temperatures, changes in forage availability, and water scarcity are a challenge for livestock farmers. These make livestock prone to diseases and death. Farmers incur high costs to immunise and treat animals.</p></li>
<li><p>Vulnerability of smallholder farmers: These farmers don’t always have the resources and capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Recommendation and policy implications</h2>
<p>The review of studies showed that sub-Saharan Africa could develop economically if rural farmers took more effective measures against climate change.</p>
<p>We made the following recommendations to protect farmers from the impact of climate change:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Strengthen institutions for policy development and implementation. Coordinating climate change adaptation efforts and sustainable agricultural practices improves farm productivity. </p></li>
<li><p>Improve rural infrastructure. This would promote economic growth, reduce poverty and make rural communities more resilient. </p></li>
<li><p>Initiate public welfare programmes. Improved access to finance, markets, education and climate information would enhance social protection.</p></li>
<li><p>Establish more forest plantations and maintain existing ones. They would help absorb the impact of climate change on agriculture and promote economic development.</p></li>
<li><p>Afforestation and reforestation can also help absorb carbon and conserve biodiversity.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso. Researcher at Oyo State College of Agriculture and Technology, Igboora, Nigeria </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abiodun Olusola Omotayo receives funding from The Climap Africa programme,German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD-Grant Ref: 91838393), Germany and the National Research Foundation’s (NRF), Incentive Funding for Rated Researchers (Grant number: 151680), South Africa. </span></em></p>Smallholder farmers are bearing the brunt of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Deliberate steps are required to support them and boost agricultural output,Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso, Postdoctoral research associate, North-West UniversityAbiodun Olusola Omotayo, Senior lecturer/researcher, North-West UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169872023-11-13T23:07:59Z2023-11-13T23:07:59ZConflict pollution, washed-up landmines and military emissions – here’s how war trashes the environment<p>When armed conflict breaks out, we first focus on the people affected. But the suffering from war doesn’t stop when the fighting does. War <a href="https://www.un.org/en/observances/environment-in-war-protection-day">trashes the environment</a>. Artillery strikes, rockets and landmines release pollutants, wipe out forests and can make farmland unusable. </p>
<p>One in six people around the world have been <a href="https://acleddata.com/2023/09/08/acled-conflict-index-2023-mid-year-update">exposed to conflict</a> this year, from civil war in Sudan to Russia’s war in Ukraine to the Israel-Hamas war. </p>
<p>War has returned. Conflicts are at their <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2022/sgsm21216.doc.htm">highest point</a> since the second world war. Deaths are at a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/conflict-trends-global-overview-1946-2022">28-year high</a>. As we grapple with the immediate plight of people, we must not lose sight of what war leaves behind – the silent casualty of the environment. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-environmental-impact-of-russias-invasion-goes-beyond-ukraine-how-do-we-deal-with-problems-without-passports-202505">The environmental impact of Russia’s invasion goes beyond Ukraine – how do we deal with ‘problems without passports’?</a>
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<h2>What damage does war do?</h2>
<p>Armed conflict leaves a long trail of environmental damage, which in turn can worsen our health and that of other species. </p>
<p>Chemical weapons and pollution from weapons stay in the environment as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-leaves-a-toxic-legacy-that-lasts-long-after-the-guns-go-quiet-can-we-stop-it-197051">toxic legacy</a>. Explosives release pollutants such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265931X02000413?via%3Dihub">depleted uranium</a> into soil, while landscapes can be destroyed by troop movement and the breakdown of infrastructure. </p>
<p>The damage can last far longer than you’d think. The bloody WWI Battle of Verdun in France left the once-fertile farmland contaminated. Over a century later, no one can live in the <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/red-zone/">Red Zone</a> due to the threat from unexploded bombs. </p>
<p>As the Russia-Ukraine war wears on, severe air pollution, deforestation and soil degradation <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972202962X?via%3Dihub">have mounted</a>. </p>
<p>Conflict also causes habitat loss and decreased biodiversity. Between 1946 and 2010, wildlife <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25194">noticeably declined</a> in African nations affected by armed conflict. </p>
<p>Landmines are particularly bad, as they are designed to remain in place until stepped on. Long after a war ends, they can still kill people or animals. Landmines also cause degradation and limit access to safe land, which can then become over-exploited. Landmines have been unearthed by flood waters <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood-update-flash-update-no3-16-september-2023-5pm-local-time">in Libya</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/mines-uprooted-ukraine-dam-disaster-could-pose-danger-years-come-red-cross-2023-06-08/">Ukraine</a>, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1857786/middle-east">Lebanon</a> and <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/bosnia-and-herzegovina/undp-flooding-unearths-landmine-danger">Bosnia Herzegovina</a>. </p>
<p>Many explosive weapons are designed to withstand short periods of intense heat. But when high temperatures linger, unexploded bombs can detonate. As the world heats up, we may see more explosions – not just from remnant bombs, but from munitions dumps. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-war-on-tigray-wiped-out-decades-of-environmental-progress-how-to-start-again-201062">The war on Tigray wiped out decades of environmental progress: how to start again</a>
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<p>In the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/world/middleeast/iraq-water-crisis-desertification.html">fast-heating</a> Middle East, this is already happening. In Iraq, six arms depots <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-may-be-blowing-up-arms-depots">exploded</a> during intense heatwaves between 2018 and 2019. In Jordan, heatwaves <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-12/explosions-rock-military-facility-in-jordan-army-blames-heat/12657276">have been blamed</a> for a similar arms dump explosion in 2020. </p>
<p>At war’s end, weapons are often dumped in the ocean. From the first world war until the 1970s, out of date munitions and chemical weapons in the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/663876/Future_of_the_sea_-_non_plastic_pollution.pdf">United Kingdom</a> were dumped into the sea. It may have seemed like an easy solution, but the bombs haven’t gone away. Over 1 million tonnes of munitions litter the floor of a natural ocean trench between Northern Ireland and Scotland. These sometimes detonate underwater, while chemical weapons have washed up on beaches. </p>
<p>During the second world war, intense fighting took place on the Solomon Islands. Even today, people die or are wounded every year when uncovered bombs <a href="https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/whats-next-solomon-islands-experts-say-uxo-problem-shocking">go off</a>. Fishers have to be wary of underwater bombs. </p>
<p>Environmental exploitation such as illegal logging or diamond mining <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099520010272224660/pdf/P1771510b38fda01e0afec01edd810d8cde.pdf">can accelerate during wartime</a>, with profits used to buy weapons to fuel more fighting. At least 40% of civil war and internal conflicts between 1946–2006 were tied to natural resources such as <a href="https://www.indiatimes.com/explainers/news/explained-why-teak-imported-from-myanmar-is-called-conflict-wood-595202.html">teak</a> and gold, according to the <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/7867">United Nations</a>. </p>
<p>Sometimes, natural resources can become targets, as in the <a href="https://landsat.visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=78594">deliberate firing of oil wells</a> in Kuwait or destruction of Ukraine’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-we-know-about-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-and-who-gains-from-its-destruction-207130">Kakhovka Dam</a>. These scorched-earth tactics do untold damage to the environment. </p>
<h2>How do war and climate change interact?</h2>
<p>The long-running war in Sudan’s Darfur region has been dubbed the world’s first <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/18/how-water-is-helping-to-end-the-first-climate-change-war#:%7E:text=The%20Darfur%20conflict%20was%20labelled,shown%20that%20climate%20impacts%20such">climate change war</a> due to its origins in drought and ecological crisis. While it’s difficult to clearly draw a link between the changing climate and an armed conflict, climate change is at minimum an indirect driver of armed conflict and can exacerbate existing social, economical and environmental factors. In turn, conflict worsens the damage done by climate change as it limits people’s ability to respond or cope with climate shocks. </p>
<p>Wars and extreme weather can both force people from their homes. At the end of last year, the number of people forced to <a href="https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2023">seek refuge elsewhere</a> in their own country was at an all time high. When people are forced to move, the disruption can add <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/displacement-and-environment-africa-what-relationship#:%7E:text=Displacement%20itself%20can%20have%20environmental,lead%20to%20uncontrolled%20waste%20disposal">extra environmental damage</a> through plastic and other types of waste. </p>
<p>When wars are raging, they take priority for governments. That, in turn, can limit efforts to reduce emissions or adapt to climate change. </p>
<p>That can make disasters worse. Colombia’s deadly <a href="https://odi.org/en/about/features/when-disasters-and-conflict-collide/">2017 landslide</a> killed over 300 people. Why was it so deadly? In part, because many people had fled to the affected town, Mocoa, to avoid war and had built makeshift houses with no protection against disasters. We also know deaths from disasters <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420923003618?via%3Dihub">increase</a> in nations riven by armed conflict. </p>
<p>The world’s military forces are intense users of fossil fuels, accounting for <a href="https://ceobs.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/SGRCEOBS-Estimating_Global_MIlitary_GHG_Emissions_Nov22_rev.pdf">5.5% of global emissions</a>. If we took the world’s military forces as one country, they would be the fourth highest emitter, after China, America and India.</p>
<p>We can no longer ignore the devastating coupling between war and environmental damage, including climate change. Wars make our ability to adapt to climate change worse, and environmental damage from conflict will exacerbate climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/war-leaves-a-toxic-legacy-that-lasts-long-after-the-guns-go-quiet-can-we-stop-it-197051">War leaves a toxic legacy that lasts long after the guns go quiet. Can we stop it?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wars are multiplying – and the damage these conflicts do isn’t just immediate. They leave long-term environmental damageStacey Pizzino, PhD Candidate, The University of QueenslandJo Durham, Senior Lecturer in Disaster Risk Management and Health, Queensland University of TechnologyMichael Waller, Senior Lecturer Biostatistics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168132023-11-02T13:29:11Z2023-11-02T13:29:11ZAmazon a time bomb for the emergence of diseases with pandemic potential – due to deforestation and climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556964/original/file-20231030-17-13jpj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C8256%2C5277&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Historic drought in the Amazon has caused rivers to dry up in the Catalão region (AM)</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/">Cadu Gomes/VPR</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Home to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/05/22/why-the-amazons-biodiversity-is-critical-for-the-globe">the greatest biodiversity on the planet</a>, the Amazon is also a ticking time bomb for the emergence or resurgence of diseases with pandemic potential. This is because environmental degradation and altered landscapes are important factors in this process, which are exacerbated during periods of <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-in-the-amazon-understanding-the-causes-and-the-need-for-an-immediate-action-plan-to-save-the-biome-215650">extreme drought</a>, such as the one now affecting the region.</p>
<p>In the Amazon in particular, the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16990982/">paving of the BR-319 highway</a>, linking Porto Velho to Manaus, is a significant source of concern. Conservative estimates predict that <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/2/823">deforestation around the road will triple</a> in the next 25 years, mainly due to land speculation. This is made worse by the fact that 90% of the area directly affected consists of untouched forest.</p>
<p>And deforestation is not a static situation, but dynamic and unpredictable, resulting in the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357781576_The_New_Transamazonian_Highway_BR-319_and_Its_Current_Environmental_Degradation">fragmentation of forests</a>, increasing the risk of fires and reducing the biodiversity of the affected areas. The association between human action in the Amazon, climate change, disorganised migration and precarious social development creates a favourable environment for the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abo5774">emergence and resurgence of diseases</a>, it has been shown.</p>
<h2>Known diseases…</h2>
<p>This process can happen in different ways. The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59341770">degradation of conserved areas</a> and the diversion of rivers and extreme drought, can, for example, lead to water and food shortages. And this poses a direct threat of malnutrition, affecting the health of local populations and leaving them more vulnerable to known diseases.</p>
<p>Lack of clean water and poor hygiene in drought conditions also increase the <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/foodborne-diseases#tab=tab_1">risk of diseases transmitted by contaminated water and food</a>, such as cholera and hepatitis, and viruses that cause severe diarrhoea, such as rotavirus. Making matters worse, the incidence of diseases associated with poor fish preservation, such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhabdomyolysis">rhabdomyolysis</a> (black urine disease) - which is not infectious - also rises during extreme droughts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/global-warming">Global warming</a> is also a critical factor in this process, allowing an increased presence of mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever">dengue fever</a>. An increase of just a few degrees in the planet’s average temperature can allow them to colonise areas that were previously inaccessible. In regions where they are present, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-70816-2">environmental degradation can increase or decrease rainfall periods</a>, favouring flooding and the maintenance of standing water, and facilitating their proliferation.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4685-GMB-2020-0355">vector-borne diseases are classic cases</a> of outbreaks due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106225">environmental imbalance</a>. The recent <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/58033/yanomami-indigenous-brazil-mining-health-crisis-malnutrition-malaria/">humanitarian crisis of the Yanomami</a>, a tragedy caused by illegal mining, land grabbing and lack of access to health services, is a case in point. In addition to the contamination of water and the environment by mercury, mining activity has created a favourable environment for the reproduction and spread of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/immunology-and-microbiology/anopheles">mosquito species of the genus Anopheles</a>, the transmitter of the protozoan that causes malaria.</p>
<p>This is because digging ravines to extract gold and minerals creates pools of water that act as artificial breeding sites. In addition, mining activity increases the human population in these remote regions, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-022-04381-6">facilitates the spread of malaria</a>. In numerical terms, while between 2008-2012 around 20% of malaria cases occurred in Yanomami territory, between 2018-2022 almost 50% of cases affected this population.</p>
<h2>… and new diseases</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7563794/">Zoonotic diseases</a> (transmitted from animals to people) present an even greater potential problem. While some pathogens (disease-causing agents such as viruses and bacteria) are capable of infecting one or a few host species, others are more generalised and can, if there is contact and opportunity, infect a wide variety of animals.</p>
<p>This type of “jump” from one host to another occurs constantly among animals in their natural habitat, for example from bats to non-human primates, small rodents and other mammals. However, there is usually a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02104">balance in the circulation of these agents</a>.</p>
<p>But when habitats are destroyed, for whatever reason (human or otherwise), local species migrate to more conserved areas in search of food and shelter. And this can lead them to areas close to human settlements – <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2018.0403">and facilitate contact between wild animals and people</a>.</p>
<h2>Impossible to predict, but possible to monitor</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361267/">preventing zoonoses</a> is not an easy task – is no effective method that can predict what the next emerging disease will be, or from where it will emerge.</p>
<p>But it is possible to keep an eye on it. To do this, we monitor the circulation of resistant viruses and bacteria in samples of water, animals and vectors, as well as humans. Animals such as bats, rodents and primates are subjected to next-generation sequencing technologies for early detection of circulating agents that could pose a threat to human health.</p>
<p>And yet it’s not enough. To be effective, surveillance must be constant and cover local and national levels. Although Brazil has the capacity and basic technical infrastructure for this, few actions are actually implemented. In addition to surveillance, we need investments in faster and more accurate diagnostic methods that can help contain the spread of potential new diseases with pandemic potential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216813/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camila M. Romano receives funding from the São Paulo State Research Foundation (FAPESP), project #2022/10408-6, Amazon+10 Initiative</span></em></p>Environmental degradation and altered landscapes, both due to human action and climate change, increase the incidence of already known diseases and the risk of new zoonoses emergingCamila M. Romano, Pesquisadora, Faculdade de Medicina da USP (FMUSP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167032023-11-01T17:04:01Z2023-11-01T17:04:01ZForests are vital to protect the climate, yet the world is falling far behind its targets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557096/original/file-20231101-21-e51xgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4089%2C2152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Atstock Productions / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world is falling behind on commitments to protect and restore forests, according to the recent <a href="https://forestdeclaration.org/resources/forest-declaration-assessment-2023/">Forest Declaration Assessment</a>. There is no serious pathway to fixing climate change while forest losses continue at current rates, because global climate targets, sustainable development goals and forest commitments depend on each other.</p>
<p>But it isn’t too late. The Assessment was published alongside the <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/learn/landscapes/forests/pathways-report-summary">Forest Pathways Report</a> I led for conservation organisation the WWF, which sets out a blueprint for how we turn our global forest failures around and get on track to protected, restored and sustainably managed forests.</p>
<p>Around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220304255#:%7E:text=Although%20our%20estimate%20of%201.60,always%20synonymous%20in%20this%20context">1.6 billion people</a> live close enough to forests to depend upon them for their livelihoods, and forests suck down about <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1201609">a third of our CO₂ emissions</a> from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>The UN estimates that forests directly generate <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/forests/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/UNFF14-BkgdStudy-SDG8-March2019.pdf">US$250 billion (£206 billion) in economic activity</a> a year. Their broader, indirect, value might be as much as <a href="https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/the-staggering-value-of-forests-and-how-to-save-them#:%7E:text=The%20estimated%20total%20value%20of,for%20as%20much%20as%2090%25.">US$150 trillion (£12 trillion) per year</a> – double the value of global stocks – largely due to their ability to store carbon. Despite this, subsidies still <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-1-4648-1916-2_ch9">provide incentives</a> for people to convert forests into agriculture.</p>
<h2>Failing promises</h2>
<p>There have been multiple global commitments to forests, with hundreds of governments and businesses signing up to pledges named after cities they were signed in: <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org/">Bonn</a> in 2011, <a href="https://forestdeclaration.org/about/new-york-declaration-on-forests/">New York</a> in 2014, <a href="http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:8669/COP26ForestGovernance.pdf">Glasgow</a> in 2021. But these pledges have not been realised, and deforestation reduction targets are slipping each year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of forest loss per year" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557103/original/file-20231101-17-tblxpd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global deforestation between 2010 and 2022, in million hectares.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://forestdeclaration.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023ForestDeclarationAssessment3.pdf">Forest Declaration Assessment 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Global forest loss in 2022 was <a href="https://forestdeclaration.org/resources/forest-declaration-assessment-2023/">6.6 million hectares</a>, an area about the size of Ireland. That’s 21% more than the amount that would keep us on track to meet the target of zero deforestation by 2030, agreed in Glasgow. The loss of tropical rainforest is even more pronounced: 33% over the target needed. Deforestation in 2022 marked a 4% step back on 2021 progress. </p>
<h2>Why we are failing to protect forests</h2>
<p>There isn’t one simple explanation for why forests are still disappearing. Factors include a lack of Indigenous Peoples rights to their territories, forest-harming financial and trade systems, and the physical effects of climate change and fire.</p>
<p>The lack of <a href="https://rightsandresources.org/wp-content/uploads/Who-Owns-the-Worlds-Land_Final-EN.pdf">consistent and secure land tenure rights</a> for Indigenous Peoples and local communities threatens forests and the people who depend upon them. Across the tropics, where forests are under their stewardship, the evidence is clear: <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00815-2">deforestation and degradation are lower</a>.</p>
<p>Subsidies that can lead to deforestation are worth between <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-10/WWF-Forest-Pathways-Exec-Summary-2023.pdf">US$381 billion (£314 billion) and US$1 trillion (£825 billion)</a> per year. These could include handing out public land to settlers, building roads or pipes to enable industrial-scale farming, keeping taxes on agricultural products artificially low, or subsidies on specific crops grown on formerly forested lands.</p>
<p>There are also illegal activities. By <a href="https://www.forest-trends.org/publications/illicit-harvest-complicit-goods/">one recent estimate</a>, 69% of the tropical forest cleared for agriculture between 2013 and 2019 violated national laws and regulations. The illegal timber trade is <a href="https://www.interpol.int/en/News-and-Events/News/2020/International-Day-of-Forests-protecting-Earth-s-most-biologically-diverse-ecosystems">estimated to be worth US$150 billion</a> per year globally. </p>
<p>There is simply not enough money going to support forests. Public finance for forests is <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/learn/landscapes/forests/pathways-report-summary">less than 1%</a> “”) of the amount invested in activities that are environmentally harmful or incentivise deforestation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Forest on fire at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557104/original/file-20231101-17-b5p3rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A warmer world means more forest fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ringo Chiu / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around the globe, forests are also being harmed by climate change and shifting patterns of wildfires. Climate change is causing <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.2359">more fires</a>, including in forests that <a href="https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/EGU23-2233.html">do not usually burn</a>, and producing <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00065-8">hotter fires</a> which cause long-term damage even in fire-adapted forests. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2067">length and severity of droughts</a> is increasing, inducing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S037811270900615X">water stress</a> which kills trees. A combination of climate-related stresses means that trees in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14283">tropics</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19164752/">temperate</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16599">boreal</a> forests, are experiencing dying younger and massive <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/1655/2020/">“die offs”</a> are happening more often.</p>
<p>If the effects of fire and climate change continue <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982219310759">post-Anthropocene forests</a> are likely to be smaller, simpler in species, emptied of wildlife and restricted to steeper ground where agriculture is less favoured.</p>
<p>Computer simulations of the future climate, known as climate models, depict very different outcomes for forests depending on whether we limit global warming or not. If emissions are reigned in and we leave some cultivated land to nature, 350 million hectares of forest could return by 2100. That’s an area roughly the size of India. However, in a future where emissions remain high and land use doesn’t change, the models suggest a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abp9723">loss of a further 500 million hectares of forest by 2100</a>.</p>
<h2>Back on track</h2>
<p>The new <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-10/WWF-Forest-Pathways-Report-2023.pdf">Forest Pathways Report</a> I worked on sets out an action plan for getting back on track. It asks global leaders and businesses to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Accelerate the recognition of Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ right to own and manage their lands, territories and resources.</p></li>
<li><p>Provide more money, both public and private, to support sustainable forest economies.</p></li>
<li><p>Reform the rules of global trade that harm forests, getting deforesting commodities out of global supply chains, and removing barriers to forest-friendly goods.</p></li>
<li><p>Shift towards nature-based and bio economies.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>At the next COP28 climate summit in Dubai, there is the promise of bilateral announcements between wealthy donor nations and forested nations in the tropics, as part of the <a href="https://forestclimateleaders.org/">Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership</a> signed in Glasgow, two years ago. These packages could support a move towards sustainable forest management and deforestation-free supply chains around the world.</p>
<p>This would be a valuable success, but leadership is desperately needed on other issues such as environmentally harmful subsidies or illegal logging, the financial scale of which both dwarf the funding provided to protect forests.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Gagen is currently on secondment to WWF UK and is the lead author of the WWF 2023 Forest Pathways Report. </span></em></p>New research identifies what needs to be done to stop failing forests.Mary Gagen, Professor of Physical Geography, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2148992023-10-29T14:00:46Z2023-10-29T14:00:46Z‘Killing’ trees: How true environmental protection requires a revolution in how we talk about, and with, our forests<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/killing-trees-how-true-environmental-protection-requires-a-revolution-in-how-we-talk-about-and-with-our-forests" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Which came first, the acorn or the oak? A more important question is which came first: our words for trees, or our understandings of what trees are?</p>
<p>Human discourse around trees both shapes and is shaped by our education, beliefs, experience and relationships with trees. Simply put, how we speak about trees matters. </p>
<p>Ten years ago, I appreciated trees alongside concern for the health of our planet, but did not consider the ways we speak about trees or their profound intricacies. Then, through an unexpected turn in <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/365a59e2f7c88182e9e6963a7d82c777/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y">my research,</a> I became more aware of trees’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1077800421994954">relationships, sentience, intelligence and interconnections with their environments as home and community.</a></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop15-biodiversity-summit-in-montreal-canada-failed-to-meet-its-2020-conservation-targets-will-2030-be-any-better-195347">COP15 biodiversity summit in Montréal: Canada failed to meet its 2020 conservation targets. Will 2030 be any better?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As we near the anniversary of last year’s UN Convention on Biological Diversity in Montréal, it is apparent that our collective tree discourse needs to fundamentally shift in order to reconnect with the integrity, interconnectivity and protection of all ecosystems called for in the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-kunming-montreal-gbf-221222">Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework.</a></p>
<p>Such a shift and lasting change means we must not talk about trees, but <em>with</em> trees. </p>
<h2>What is tree discourse?</h2>
<p>Behind all discourse are systems of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018726700539002">language, behaviour and belief</a>. Contemporary discourse reflects and shapes people’s belief that trees are living community members or inanimate materials to be used for human well-being. </p>
<p>This binary gets complicated when people understand the aliveness of trees and their relations with non-human life while prioritizing human economic value and need of trees.</p>
<p>Western relationships with trees have evolved from <a href="https://sunypress.edu/Books/P/Plants-as-Persons2">knowing trees and plants as persons, kin and divine</a> to viewing the natural world as separate and subject to the will of human desires. During the European Enlightenment, English philosopher John Stuart Mill stated that <a href="https://gapsinthedialogue.wordpress.com/2009/10/26/the-environment-and-the-enlightenment/">following nature “is equally irrational and immoral” because useful human action “improves the spontaneous course of nature” and imitating nature would be vile.</a></p>
<p>This paradigm, which has dominated western, and by extension global, thought for centuries, considers trees and plants as <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/L/bo12300588.html">“just life’s wallpaper”</a> and resources to be exploited.</p>
<h2>Impacts of tree discourse</h2>
<p>English writer John Evelyn’s foundational text <a href="https://www.rct.uk/collection/1057442/silva-or-a-discourse-of-forest-trees-and-the-propagation-of-timber-in-his"><em>Sylva</em></a> was published in 1664 and became one of the most influential books on forestry. </p>
<p>Conceived as a practical guide to sylva culture — the science of growing and harvesting trees for products — the book was written in response to the English Royal Navy’s concerns of timber shortages. As many as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/507166a">2,000 oak trees were needed</a> to construct a single navy ship in the 17th century, and England’s forests were being decimated.</p>
<p>These same wooden ships carried the imperial and colonial expansion which brought untold <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14258">genocide and ecocide to the Americas (Turtle Island)</a> which was extensive enough to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47063973">result in a global “little ice age”</a>.</p>
<p>The felling of 2,000 oak trees to build a single ship was normalized through the embedded and convenient belief that humans can behave as the dominant species on Earth and exploit trees and other non-humans in the name of progress. Likewise, the continued deforestation we see all around us — loss on the scale of <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation">10 million hectares per year since 2010</a> alone — is enabled through the same ideological discourse.</p>
<p>Effects of deforestation include <a href="https://www.harvard.com/book/requiem_for_a_species_why_we_resist_the_truth_about_climate_change/">loss of non-human species, reduced ability of trees to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and increases in droughts, fires and heat, all of which inhibit plant and tree growth and contribute to the climate crisis.</a></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/have-we-reached-the-end-of-nature-our-relationship-with-the-environment-is-in-crisis-206278">Have we reached the end of nature? Our relationship with the environment is in crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Additionally, the loss of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct1rlb">old, venerable and ancient trees,</a> in pursuit of good views, new farms or solar panel installations, impacts eco-communities living within them as well as other communities of trees, non-humans and humans.</p>
<p>In many Indigenous and animist ways of knowing, non-humans, including trees, are <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010%5B1327:KEIPOT%5D2.0.CO;2">people and relatives.</a> </p>
<p>Referred to as <a href="https://www.aaanativearts.com/meaning-of-trees">“the Standing People” they are honoured and respected for their unique tangible and intangible qualities.</a> Relationships with trees are recognized through gestures of gratitude and reciprocity such as offerings and prayers. In many Indigenous worldviews, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17547075.2018.1430996">recognizing and respecting the intelligence and equality within living environments is essential to guiding responsible companionship with the world</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900052677">and to protecting all life.</a></p>
<h2>Celebration and change</h2>
<p>Over the past 10 years or so there has been an increase in western literary and media publications about trees. Trees <a href="https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300228205/the-long-long-life-of-trees/">have served humankind practically and as valuable sources of symbolism and creativity</a>. </p>
<p>Trees <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyXDjOamDj8">protect urban centres and reduce their expenses</a>, they <a href="https://greystonebooks.com/products/the-hidden-life-of-trees">interact biologically and socially</a> and they live and procreate via <a href="https://www.robertllewellyn.com/BOOKS/Seeing-Trees/1">exquisite, tiny biological parts.</a> </p>
<p>Western tree discourse is increasingly recognizing trees as beings in their own right. Scientific research shows evidence of tree and plant <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14143">self-awareness,</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2016.0098">intelligence,</a> <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7208/9780226264844">perception,</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.4161/psb.2.4.4470">cognition.</a></p>
<p>The ongoing controversy around plant intelligence links to the perception that <a href="https://doi.org/10.31542/muse.v4i1.1247">“intelligence” cannot apply to organisms lacking organs responsible for intelligent functioning,</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/415841a">movement</a>. </p>
<p>Conversely, renowned Italian botanist and scholar Stefano Mancuso argues that it is impossible and evolutionarily unrealistic to consider any form of life as lacking intelligence. This includes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d42473-021-00451-6">“plants, which being unable to move, must necessarily solve their problems.”</a></p>
<p>Changes in academic thinking over the past few decades toward decentering humans and concern for non-humans, known as <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/the-nonhuman-turn">the nonhuman turn,</a> and the growing field of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137453693_11">critical plant studies</a> are bringing academic and public attention to non-humans and <a href="https://synergeticpress.com/catalog/the-mind-of-plants/">plants as aware and active in their own lives and worlds.</a> This attention <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12124">must include recognition that Indigenous relational knowledge with non-human intelligence and personhood existed long before the emergence of western modes of thought.</a> </p>
<p>In 1972, American legal and environmental scholar <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/christopher-stone-dead/2021/05/19/7641dd4a-b816-11eb-a5fe-bb49dc89a248_story.html">Christopher Stone</a> called for the rights and moral standing of trees, stating it is <a href="https://iseethics.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/stone-christopher-d-should-trees-have-standing.pdf">neither inevitable nor wise that beings of nature should have no rights, standing or voice</a> in human society. </p>
<p>Rather than assume and impose that non-humans have no voice, we humans need to recognize the limitations in our capacity to listen. Discourse is not only human.</p>
<h2>Trees matter</h2>
<p>In September 2023, a 300-year-old iconic sycamore tree in England, that had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/28/boy-16-arrested-in-connection-with-felling-of-famous-sycamore-gap-tree-hadrians-wall-england">become “part of this area’s DNA,” was “literally murdered,” an act that was “like stealing joy.”</a> </p>
<p>This type of discourse reflects <a href="https://theconversation.com/it-wasnt-just-a-tree-why-it-feels-so-bad-to-lose-the-iconic-sycamore-gap-tree-and-others-like-it-214841">the sense of security and identity which people develop over a long period of relations with trees and the natural world</a>. These words reflect respect for trees’ ineffable presence and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12199-008-0068-3">healing qualities</a>, their inherent aliveness, their right to recognition as sentient beings, and the support trees give for all life on Earth. </p>
<p>Hearing people describe trees as “relations” and “murdered” — and understanding <em>why</em> they do so — helps shift understandings and perspectives of trees. People are increasingly aware of the need to interact with trees with respect, mindfulness and care. </p>
<p>Alongside recounting such descriptive words in media stories, journalists can critically widen tree discourse by detailing people’s understandings of trees. Shifting tree discourse imperatively informs action toward ecological integrity.</p>
<p>Collectively, efforts toward embedding trees as relations and persons into western worldviews can help us relearn and reconnect with <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv29sfz3r">the old ways of knowing and being with trees, and all non-humans, in interrelation and kinship to create a vitally different future.</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Abbott received funding through a Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship that supported research associated with this article.
</span></em></p>Getting serious about protecting global biodiversity requires not just policy but a revolution in how we talk about, and with, our planet’s forests.Sarah Abbott, Associate Professor, Department of Film, Faculty of Media, Art, and Performance, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156502023-10-17T22:27:23Z2023-10-17T22:27:23ZDrought in the Amazon: Understanding the causes and the need for an immediate action plan to save the biome<p>The drought plaguing the Amazon is a worrying portrait of the climate challenges facing the world. The combination of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508">the El Niño phenomenon</a> and anthropogenic climate change has played a significant role in accentuating this extreme weather event. The Amazon region, known for its lush rainforest and flowing rivers, is facing a critical situation due to a lack of rainfall and rising temperatures.</p>
<p>This phenomenon, never recorded at this intensity, has affected biodiversity and human life in eight Amazonian states. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/water-life-drought-brazils-amazon-sharpening-fears-future-103815627">The drought</a> has already killed more than 140 dolphins, including pink dolphins and tucuxis, also known as grey dolphins. The mortality of fish and other aquatic animals is also high. The low volume of the rivers affects the human supply, causing a lack of drinking water and food in all the small villages, even those located on the banks of the big rivers. Of the 62 municipalities in the state of Amazonas, 42 are in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/brazil-amazon-drought-indigenous-climate-change">state of emergency</a>, 18 are in a state of alert and only two are in a normal situation.</p>
<p>The El Niño phenomenon has a direct influence on the Amazon drought. It manifests itself in the abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, affecting the rainfall regime in various parts of the world. In the case of the Amazon region, the drought is exacerbated by a decrease in humidity and a lack of rainfall, damaging the vegetation, fauna and local communities that depend on natural resources. </p>
<p>However, anthropogenic climate change is making the situation even worse. Rampant deforestation, driven by agricultural expansion and logging activity, reduces the Amazon rainforest’s ability to regulate the climate and retain moisture. In addition, the destruction of vast areas of vegetation contributes to rising temperatures, creating a cycle of even more accentuated droughts. </p>
<h2>Deforestation and mining, major factors</h2>
<p>Deforestation has been particularly devastating in the region of <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd6977">Highway BR-319</a>, in the south of Amazonas state, driven by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837721002829?via%3Dihub">land grabbing</a> which has provided cheap land to cattle ranchers from other states. In turn, this deforestation has increased the number of fires that feed back into the climate crisis. When they occur near riverbanks, deforestation also intensifies the <a href="https://gjeta.com/sites/default/files/GJETA-2021-0168.pdf">phenomenon known as fallen land</a>, which has drastically affected the draught of rivers and is already significantly jeopardising navigation and logistics, mainly affecting villages in the interior of the Amazon, which are already suffering from shortages.</p>
<p>Another factor that has played a significant role in affecting navigation is mining activity. Disorganised mineral extraction has created banks of land that are harmful to navigation and which, in the critical scenario of drought, have caused many vessels to run aground. </p>
<h2>The impact of hydroelectric dams</h2>
<p>Hydroelectric dams also play a role in contributing to the drought scenario, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1462901113002724">especially on the Madeira River</a>. This is mainly due to the decomposition of organic matter in reservoirs created by dams, which releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. In addition, deforestation associated with the construction of dams, as well as soil degradation and erosion resulting from the alteration of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, can increase emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other pollutants, contributing to the impact of hydroelectric dams on climate change.</p>
<p><a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2023/10/amazon-drought-cuts-river-traffic-leaves-communities-without-water-and-supplies/">The Madeira River, now at its lowest level in almost 60 years</a>, has been drastically affected and transformed by the Jirau and Santo Antônio <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1462901113002724?via%3Dihub">hydroelectric dams</a>. This was due to the drastic alteration of the river’s natural flow caused by the damming of water for power generation. When water is dammed, a reservoir is formed that retains part of the water that would normally flow along the river. This diversion of the flow directly affects the region’s aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, since the basin’s hydrological cycle is interrupted. The reduction in the volume of water in the Madeira River, for example, can lead to prolonged periods of drought, affecting not only aquatic fauna and riparian habitats, but also local communities that depend on the river for their livelihoods.</p>
<p>In addition, the construction and operation of hydroelectric dams in the Amazon often involves the clearing of significant areas of forest for the construction of dams and associated infrastructure. Deforestation contributes to a reduction in evapotranspiration, which is a crucial process for water balance in the region. With fewer trees to release water into the atmosphere, the Amazon becomes more susceptible to drought. The combination of these factors results in a significant impact on the region, making hydroelectric dams one of the causes of drought in the Amazon, particularly on the Madeira River, with worrying environmental and social consequences.</p>
<h2>What can still be done</h2>
<p>In order to combat the extreme drought in the Amazon and its devastating effects, it is essential to adopt strict measures to curb deforestation and illegal mining in the region, and for the federal government to review major undertakings such as hydroelectric dams and roads, such as the BR-319 motorway. </p>
<p>Many politicians have argued that the road, if paved, could reduce the state’s isolation, especially during droughts. However, this is a fallacious argument, because connecting the most isolated municipalities would require hundreds of kilometres of side roads, which would further increase deforestation and aggravate the climate crisis. </p>
<p>In addition, the BR-319 motorway has become a spearhead that cuts through one of the most conserved blocks of forest, linking the central Amazon, which is still preserved, to the “arc of Amazonian deforestation”, a region that concentrates most of the climate anomalies in the entire biome. </p>
<h2>Ecosystem on the edge</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14033">recent study</a> published in the renowned journal Conservation Biology, it was shown that deforestation in the Amazon is already impacting ecosystem services that are essential for Brazil, such as the Amazon’s flying rivers. This scientific data shows that we are already at the threshold of deforestation and environmental degradation tolerated by the Amazon, and more forceful action needs to be taken now. </p>
<p>Part of this responsibility lies now in the hands of President Lula, in reviewing major developments in the Amazon, such as hydroelectric dams and highways like the BR-319. In addition, it is essential to institute a zero deforestation policy that should begin this year, and not in 2030, when it will be too late. Furthermore, it is crucial that the international community and local governments work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle climate change effectively. Only with coordinated and decisive action will we be able to mitigate the impacts of drought in the Amazon and protect this unique ecosystem that plays a vital role in regulating the global climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Ferrante has already received funding from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and the Amazonas State Research Foundation (FAPEAM)</span></em></p>A combination of climate change, a strong El Niño and an insistence on works of enormous impact are contributing to an unprecedented and extremely urgent situation in the regionLucas Ferrante, Pesquisador Vinculado ao Programa de Pós-graduação em Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153252023-10-13T15:11:34Z2023-10-13T15:11:34ZForests v farmland: what the world would look like if we allocated all our land in the optimal way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553263/original/file-20231011-15-8msjan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5412%2C3185&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martins Silgailis / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What would the world look like if we could decide – globally and collectively – to allocate all our land in the optimal way? Where would we grow food and find water, and what areas would we leave to nature?</p>
<p>A team of researchers in Germany have calculated optimal land use configurations that could work under future climate conditions. Their study in the journal <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2220371120">PNAS</a>, suggests that rejigging where we grow food could almost triple crop production, while maintaining supplies of freshwater and stores of carbon. </p>
<p>It’s a radical suggestion that isn’t likely to ever happen. But a thought experiment like this provides an insight into the scale of transformation that may be required to maintain a healthy planet while adapting to a changing climate and a growing population. </p>
<p>After all, humans transforming the natural landscape into something else – what’s referred to as land use change – is a key driver of biodiversity loss. With 8 billion humans to feed, more than a third of the world’s land surface and about three quarters of freshwater resources are now <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/">devoted to crop or livestock production</a> leading to a significant drop in the abundance of many native species.</p>
<p>The new study calculates the optimal configuration of global land-use under different climate change scenarios until the end of this century. It targets three key indicators. First, the total carbon stored in trees, wetlands and so on, which is an indicator of climate regulation and mitigation. Second, crop production as proxy for food supply. And third, available runoff (excess water the ground cannot absorb), indicating freshwater availability.</p>
<p>The study’s authors then used an optimisation algorithm to identify how land could be best allocated to reach a point at which the global totals of each of these three objectives could not increase without declines in the other two – that is, the optimum use of land. </p>
<h2>Forests here, crops and pasture there</h2>
<p>What might this mean in practice? The research identified some global priority areas where natural habitats could regrow. Those are predominantly areas currently used for farming that would, in their natural state, have been forests. </p>
<p>To compensate for the regrowth of forests, the optimisation suggests a significant expansion of croplands in temperate regions including the southern US and Mexico, western Europe, South Africa, eastern China and also the coastal regions of Australia. </p>
<p>In the optimisation, new pasture would be created from cropland in India and from natural land in eastern and southern Africa and in regions south of the Sahara. </p>
<p>More controversially, the optimisation suggests converting natural land in the Amazon basin into pasture. This is because long term climate modelling suggests the rainforest is becoming drier anyway and even risks <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-amazon-rainforest-on-the-verge-of-collapse-178580">“tipping” into more savanna-like conditions</a>. </p>
<h2>Balancing multiple ecosystem services</h2>
<p>Carbon storage, freshwater and food supply are important, but they are just three of the many “ecosystem services” provided to humans by nature. If others – such as flood management, pollination or even human recreation – were factored in, it might paint a very different picture and shift the optimisation boundaries.</p>
<p>The authors briefly mention the potential impact that large scale land use conversions may have on biodiversity, for instance, a crucial aspect of these services. But an exercise like this is unable to capture the nuances of impacts on threatened species let alone on the movement and establishment of invasive species.</p>
<p>It’s also tough to see the suggested land use as feasible or pragmatic when geopolitical and socioeconomic factors tend to drive decisions on what to do with land. For example, the optimisation suggests more cropland in most of Great Britain, with parts of Scotland and southern and eastern England left to nature. But this would require significant policy and socio-culture change in a country where 52% of land is already enclosed farmland and only <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/habitatextentandconditionnaturalcapitaluk/2022">11% is woodland</a>. </p>
<p>Only a very brave politician would suggest <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-happen-if-we-abandoned-britains-farms-and-left-them-to-nature-63951">abandoning British farms</a>, or taking iconic woodlands or moorland grazed by sheep and turning them into wheat fields. </p>
<p>The challenges might be even greater in a country like India, which the optimisation suggests should be converted to pasture. This would be a radical overhaul in a country where <a href="https://www.fao.org/india/fao-in-india/india-at-a-glance">70% of rural households</a> still depend on agriculture, predominantly growing crops.</p>
<p>The authors acknowledge that such drastic land-use changes over such extended regions are unrealistic. East Africa won’t suddenly become a huge livestock farm, and northern states in the US won’t be reforested overnight. This remains a theoretical exercise. For land use optimisation to succeed in practice, any transformations will need to consider both the local policy and practice context of each region.</p>
<p>This study is, however, a good example of the sort of big picture thinking required in the longer term, and provides a theoretical framework that gives us an inkling of the direction and scale of change that may eventually need to be considered.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepa Senapathi receives funding from UKRI and Horizon Europe grants across various research projects</span></em></p>A new study suggests a radical rejigging of where food is grown. But is such a world even possible?Deepa Senapathi, Associate Professor, Head of Department of Sustainable Land Management, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135502023-09-26T02:46:39Z2023-09-26T02:46:39ZMuscle, wood, coal, oil: what earlier energy transitions tell us about renewables<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550133/original/file-20230925-29-u06u61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=89%2C104%2C4790%2C2395&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Child coal miners, Pennsylvania, 1911</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Inside_workers_shaft_-6_Pennsylvania_Coal_Company%2C._LOC_nclc.01144.tif">Lewis Wickes Hines/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2022, the burning of fossil fuels <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/renewables-growth-did-not-dent-fossil-fuel-dominance-2022-statistical-review-2023-06-25/">provided 82%</a> of the world’s energy. In 2000, it was 87%. Even as renewables have undergone tremendous growth, they’ve been offset by increased demand <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix">for energy</a>. </p>
<p>That’s why the United Nations earlier this month released a <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake">global stocktake</a> – an assessment on how the world is going in weaning itself off these energy-dense but dangerously polluting fuels. Short answer: progress, but nowhere near enough, soon enough. </p>
<p>If we consult history, we find that energy transitions are not new. To farm fields and build cities, we’ve gone from relying on human or animal muscle to wind and water to power sailboats and mill grain. Then we began switching to the energy dense hydrocarbons, coal, gas and oil. But this can’t last. We were first warned in <a href="https://www.rigb.org/explore-science/explore/blog/who-discovered-greenhouse-effect">1859</a> that when burned, these fuels add to the Earth’s warming blanket of greenhouse gases and threaten our liveable climate. </p>
<p>It’s time for another energy transition. We’ve done it before. The problem is time – and resistance from the old energy regime, fossil fuel companies. Energy historian Vaclav Smil calculates past energy transitions have taken <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262536165/energy-and-civilization/">50–75 years</a> to ripple through societies. And we no longer have that kind of time, as climate change accelerates. This year is likely <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230906-2023-likely-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-eu-monitor-1">the hottest in 120,000 years</a>. </p>
<p>So can we learn anything from past energy transitions? As it happens, we can.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="madagascar oxen cart rural residents" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549958/original/file-20230925-27-htrx3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’ve drawn heavily on the strength of animals until very recently. This image shows rural residents riding an ox-drawn cart in Madagascar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Energy shifts happen in fits and starts</h2>
<p>Until around 1880, the world ran on wood, charcoal, crop residue, manure, water and wind. In fact, some countries relied on wood and charcoal throughout the 20th century – even as others were shifting from coal to oil. </p>
<p>The English had used coal for domestic heating from the time of the Romans because it burned longer and had nearly double the energy intensity of wood. </p>
<p>So what drove the shift? Deforestation was a part. The reliance on wood worked while there were trees. In the pre-industrial era, cities of 500,000 or more needed huge areas of forests around them. </p>
<p>In some locales wood seemed boundless, free and expendable. The costs to biodiversity would become apparent only later.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="wood to burn for charcoal" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549955/original/file-20230925-25-bkscie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1020&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wood has been an essential source of energy. This 1925 photo shows a woodpile in Victoria ready to be burned for charcoal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://collections.museumsvictoria.com.au/items/766744">Charlie Gillett/Museums Victoria</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>England was once carpeted in forest. Endemic deforestation drove the change to coal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Most English coal pits opened between 1540 and 1640.</p>
<p>When the English figured out how to use coal to make steam and push a piston, it made even more possible – pumping water from deepening mining pits, the invention of locomotives, and transporting produce, including the feed needed by working animals. </p>
<p>Yet for all this, coal had only reached 5% of the global market by 1840. </p>
<p>In North America, coal didn’t overtake wood until as late as 1884 – even as crude oil became more important. </p>
<p>Why did America first start exploiting oil reserves? In part to replace expensive oil from the heads of sperm whales. Before hydrocarbon oil was widely available, whaling was depended upon for lubricants and some lighting. In 1846, the US had 700 whaling vessels scouring the oceans for this source of oil.</p>
<p>Crude oil was struck first in Pennsylvania in 1859. To extract it required drilling down 21 metres. The drill was powered by a steam engine – which may have been fired by wood.</p>
<h2>Steam and muscle</h2>
<p>The 19th century energy transition took decades. It wasn’t a revolution so much as a steady shift. By the end of that century, global energy supply had doubled and half of it was from coal. </p>
<p>When they were first invented in 1712, steam engines converted just 2% of coal into useful energy. Almost 150 years later they were still highly inefficient at just 15%. (Petrol-powered cars still waste <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cars-waste-two-thirds-of-their-fuel-197752">about 66%</a> of the energy in their fuel). </p>
<p>Even so, steam sped up early proto-industries such as textiles, print production and traditional manufacturing. </p>
<p>But the engines did not free us from the yoke. In fact, early coal mining actually increased demand for human labour. Boys as young as six worked at lighter tasks. Conditions were generally horrific. Alongside human muscle was animal strength. Coal was often raised from pits by draft horses. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-globalised-solar-powered-future-is-wholly-unrealistic-and-our-economy-is-the-reason-why-118927">A globalised solar-powered future is wholly unrealistic – and our economy is the reason why</a>
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<p>In 1850s New England, steam was three times more expensive than water flows powering textile mills. Vaclav Smil <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Energy_and_Civilization/Br74DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=vaclav+smil&printsec=frontcover">has shown</a> industrial waterwheels and turbines “competed successfully with steam engines for decades”. The energy of flowing water was free. Digging up coal was labor-intensive. </p>
<p>Why did steam win? Human ecologist Andreas Malm argues <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2020.1718873#:%7E:text=Contrary%20to%20scholars%20who%20situate,required%20no%20animate%20labour%20to">what really drove the shift</a> to steam-powered mills was capital. Locating steam engines in urban centres made it easier to concentrate and control workers, as well as overcoming worker walk-outs and machine breaking. </p>
<p>The question of who does the work is often overlooked. When energy historians refer vaguely to human muscle, we should ask: whose muscles? Was the work done by slaves or forced labourers? </p>
<p>Even in the current energy transition there can be gross disparities between employer and worker. As heat intensifies, some employers are giving <a href="https://time.com/6211360/qatar-world-cup-workers-extreme-heat/">ice vests to their migrant workers</a> so they can keep working. That’s reminiscent of coal shovelers in the furnace-like stokeholes of steam ships being immersed in ice-baths on collapse, as historian On Barak <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Powering_Empire/qlfDDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">has shown</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C91%2C1493%2C1151&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="pit pony coal mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C91%2C1493%2C1151&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548244/original/file-20230914-21-mpsuw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pit ponies were widely used in coal mines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does this mean for us?</h2>
<p>As Vaclav Smil <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Energy_and_Civilization/Br74DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=every+transition+to+a+new+energy+supply+has+to+be+powered+by+the+intensive+deployment+of+existing+energies+and+prime+movers&pg=PA230&printsec=frontcover">points out</a>, “every transition to a new energy supply has to be powered by the intensive deployment of existing energies and prime movers”. In fact, Smil argues the idea of the “industrial revolution” is misleading. It was not sudden. Rather, it was “gradual, often uneven”.</p>
<p>History may seem like it unfolds neatly. But it doesn’t at all. In earlier transitions, we see overlaps. Hesitation. Sometimes, more intense use of earlier energy sources. They start as highly localised shifts, depending on available resources, before new technologies spreads along trade routes. Ultimately market forces have driven – or hindered – adoption. </p>
<p>Time is short. But on the plus side, there are market forces now driving the shift to clean energy. Once solar panels and wind turbines are built, sunlight and wind are free. It is the resistance of the old guard – fossil fuel corporations – that is holding us back.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213550/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Conor receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>You might look at the task ahead of weaning ourselves off fossil fuels and despair. But we’ve changed energy sources many times before – and it’s never a straightforward process.Liz Conor, ARC Future Fellow, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121742023-09-18T12:20:35Z2023-09-18T12:20:35ZKeeping your cool in a warming world: 8 steps to help manage eco-anxiety<p>In a world facing <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">environmental challenges</a> <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/#">unprecedented in human history</a>, it’s no surprise that eco-anxiety – a pervasive worry about the current and<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/586541/the-uninhabitable-earth-by-david-wallace-wells/"> future state of our planet</a> – has become an <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/oxford-reveals-word-of-the-year-2019-heres-why-we-should-be-very-very-concerned/articleshow/72332446.cms?from=mdr">increasingly prevalent</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-anxiety-and-mental-illness/">mental health issue.</a></p>
<p>As people witness the devastating <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">impacts of climate change</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/climate/trees-tropical-forests-deforestation.html">deforestation</a> and loss of <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/biodiversity">biodiversity</a>, it’s only natural to feel <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/health/eco-anxiety-harmful-for-health-wellness/index.html">overwhelmed and disheartened</a>. I happen to live in Phoenix, Arizona, a “<a href="https://www.azcentral.com/restricted/?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fopinion%2Fop-ed%2Fphilboas%2F2023%2F07%2F14%2Fphoenix-summer-heat-intense-not-apocalypse%2F70414067007%2F">heat apocalypse</a>” city with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/01/phoenix-water-shortage-population-growth/">dwindling water supplies</a>, so I have some skin in the game.</p>
<p>But amid doom-and-gloom predictions, there is hope. As a therapist and clinical social work professor, I have seen firsthand how paralyzing <a href="https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/915145">eco-anxiety</a> can be, and I’m dedicated to finding solutions. Here are a few evidence-based tips to tackle your climate woes. </p>
<h2>What is eco-anxiety?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.socialworktoday.com/archive/Spring23p10.shtml">Eco-anxiety</a> is a broad term that encompasses dread about environmental issues like pollution and disposal of toxic waste, as well as climate-specific fears, such as <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/climate-change-and-extreme-weather">increasing rates of extreme weather events</a> and <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html">sea-level rise</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19042461">Common symptoms</a> of eco-anxiety include worry about future generations, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101434">trouble sleeping or concentrating</a>, feelings of frustration and a sense of helplessness. These feelings can range from mild and fleeting concerns to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12197836">deep despair</a>, panic attacks and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867411433951">obsessive-compulsive behaviors</a>.</p>
<p>Sound like you or someone you know? There are a number of tools that can help people cope with these feelings, summed up with the acronym UPSTREAM.</p>
<h2>Understanding and self-compassion</h2>
<p>Be kind to yourself and know that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3">you are not alone in these feelings</a>.</p>
<p>Caring about the world you live in does not make you a “crazy” alarmist. In fact, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-eco-anxiety-climate-change_uk_5d7f7c1ce4b03b5fc886cc16">growing numbers</a> of people across the globe feel the same way, with <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-beliefs-attitudes-spring-2023/toc/2/">two-thirds of Americans reporting</a> being at least somewhat worried about climate change in recent polls. </p>
<p>It makes sense that people would feel nervous when <a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html">basic needs</a> like safety and shelter are threatened. Give yourself grace, because <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-s-mental-health-matters/201507/6-ways-stop-mentally-beating-yourself">beating yourself up</a> for these very valid feelings will only make you feel worse. </p>
<p><iframe id="kC3Mu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kC3Mu/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Participate in the solution</h2>
<p>It can be hard to feel empowered when environmental harms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074">taking a toll on your mental health</a>, but the escalating global crisis still demands urgent attention. Instead of burying your head in the sand, use that mental discomfort as a catalyst for action.</p>
<p>Individual efforts to <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/12/27/35-ways-reduce-carbon-footprint/">reduce your carbon footprint</a> matter. <a href="https://youchangeearth.org/guides/join-a-climate-movement/">Joining larger movements</a> has the potential for even move significant impacts, as well as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-022-02735-6">potential to buffer anxiety</a>, research shows. Volunteer your own unique passions, talents and skills to advocate for systemic changes that will benefit the planet and humanity. </p>
<p>When you feel anxious, use that energy as fuel for the fight. Harnessing eco-anxiety in this way can <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-eco-anxiety-climate-change_uk_5d7f7c1ce4b03b5fc886cc16">reduce your sense of powerlessness</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of young people plant trees along a street in Los Angeles. One is wearing an LA Conservation Corps T-shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local groups can take action in many ways, including helping to plant trees, educating residents or pressuring lawmakers to take action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tree-planting-in-highland-park-plans-to-plant-100-arbutus-news-photo/129369806">Citizen of the Planet/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Self-talk</h2>
<p>The weight of the climate crisis is heavy enough as it is – don’t let your brain make you feel even worse.</p>
<p>When it comes to thinking about climate change, a realistic mindset puts us in a “just right” psychological Goldilocks zone. Don’t <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/terrifying-parallels-between-twin-threats-of-climate-change-and-nuclear-ruin/2017/10/27/bc6058d2-af74-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html">numb your psychic wounds</a>, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00048670701881603">don’t over-catastrophize</a>.</p>
<p>As a therapist, I often help clients identify and reframe <a href="https://www.therapistaid.com/worksheets/cognitive-distortions">unhelpful thinking patterns</a>. For example, while it is true that there are many environmental problems to grapple with, there is <a href="https://psychcentral.com/lib/cognitive-distortions-negative-thinking#discounting">also positive</a> news, so don’t discount it. Recognize and celebrate victories big and small.</p>
<h2>Trauma: Process it so you can heal</h2>
<p>The climate crisis has been conceptualized as a <a href="https://istss.org/public-resources/istss-briefing-papers/briefing-paper-global-climate-change-and-trauma">collective trauma</a>, and many individuals are struggling with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/arctic-solastalgia-climate-crisis-inuit-indigenous">eco-grief</a> from climate impacts that have already happened. Processing past trauma from events like weather disasters is a crucial step in enhancing your ability to cope with new experiences. </p>
<p>Even people who have <a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-news-on-tv-and-social-media-can-trigger-post-traumatic-stress-in-kids-thousands-of-miles-away-heres-why-some-are-more-vulnerable-173627">not yet experienced</a> significant climate impacts directly may have <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781351025225-25/climate-trauma-stef-craps">signs of pre-traumatic stress</a>, a clinical term for the distress experienced in anticipation of a high-stress situation. A licensed mental health professional can help you process these emotions. </p>
<h2>Reduce isolation</h2>
<p>It’s no secret that having a strong social support network is a <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-secret-to-happiness-heres-some-advice-from-the-longest-running-study-on-happiness-2017100512543">key ingredient for happiness</a>. Surrounding yourself with compassionate, like-minded friends is also key to sustained efforts in doing your part to make a difference. </p>
<p>Consider joining or starting a <a href="https://www.climateandmind.org/climate-cafe">Climate Cafe</a> or similar group to talk about climate concerns. Visit a <a href="https://www.goodgriefnetwork.org/10steps/">10-step climate grief meeting</a>. Join a local environmental organization. Or simply call up a friend when you need a listening ear.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a trash bag and directs others in a lakeshore clean up effort." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community cleanup days can help reduce isolation and help you feel involved in making the world a better place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-volunteer-coordinator-speaks-to-the-group-royalty-free-image/1401403313">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ecotherapy</h2>
<p>Get outdoors and enjoy nature.</p>
<p>Go for a quiet walk in the woods and observe nature all around you – it’s a Japanese practice for relaxation known as <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/forest-bathing-nature-walk-health">forest bathing</a>. Spend time <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/ecotherapy#techniques">gardening</a>. <a href="https://www.goodtherapy.org/learn-about-therapy/types/econature-therapy">Exercise outdoors</a> or otherwise spend time outdoors in a place that is relaxing and restorative for you.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Gardening can relax the mind and put you in touch with nature. If you don’t have a yard, find a community garden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-volunteers-working-in-community-garden-royalty-free-image/1202939486">Compassionate Eye Foundation/Natasha Alipour Faridani via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Acts of self-care</h2>
<p>Self-care is paramount when it comes to managing the emotional toll of eco-anxiety.</p>
<p>Engaging in <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shyness-is-nice/201403/seven-types-of-self-care-activities-for-coping-with-stress">self-care practices</a>, such as getting adequate sleep, eating healthy and having fun, helps us maintain a sense of balance in the face of overwhelming environmental concerns.</p>
<p>Remember what they teach you on airplanes – you should always put on your own oxygen mask before helping other passengers. Likewise, when we come from a place of wellness, we are <a href="https://www.climaterealitydfw.org/post/discouraged-frustrated-fearful-self-care-may-be-the-answer-to-burnout">better equipped to handle the stresses of eco-anxiety</a> and make a difference in this area.</p>
<h2>Mindfulness</h2>
<p>Because eco-grief is focused on the past and eco-anxiety is future-oriented, reconnecting to the present moment is a powerful way to combat both.</p>
<p>By cultivating <a href="https://www.mindful.org/jon-kabat-zinn-defining-mindfulness/">mindfulness</a> – a nonjudgmental awareness of the present moment – people can become more attuned to their thoughts, feelings and bodily sensations in response to eco-anxiety triggers. This heightened self-awareness helps people to acknowledge worries without becoming consumed by them.</p>
<p>Mindfulness practices, such as <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/23718805/beginner-guide-meditation-mindfulness-how-to-meditate">meditation </a>and <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/breath-meditation-a-great-way-to-relieve-stress">deep breathing</a>, provide a <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/meditation/in-depth/meditation/art-20045858">calming and grounding effect,</a> helping to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/acm.2008.0495">reduce stress</a> and alleviate feelings of helplessness. Moreover, mindfulness fosters a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/eco.2018.0061">deeper connection to nature </a>and an appreciation for the present moment, which can counteract the sense of despair associated with future environmental uncertainties.</p>
<p>In the face of eco-anxiety, these strategies can build resilience, reminding everyone that they have the power to shape a more sustainable and hopeful future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Magruder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A therapist shares advice for harnessing your stress over climate change and other environmental harms and putting it to work.Karen Magruder, Assistant Professor of Practice in Social Work, University of Texas at ArlingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121332023-09-04T02:30:53Z2023-09-04T02:30:53ZSharing benefits from the UN’s deforestation reduction program remains challenging, here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544499/original/file-20230824-23-mjs8wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C2048%2C1336&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A view of primary rainforest in Honitetu village, West Seram regency, Maluku province, Indonesia on August 23, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/36827390986/in/photostream/">(Ulet Ifansasti/CIFOR)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>REDD+ is the United Nations’ <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/about/about-redd">deforestation and forest degradation reduction program</a>. It was established nearly 20 years ago and is still active in more than 65 countries.</p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-indonesia-improve-redd-to-stop-deforestation-181435">How can Indonesia improve REDD+ to stop deforestation?</a>
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<p>REDD+ allows people who protect local forests to receive payments, usually from developed countries. The intention is to make saving forests more economically attractive than destroying the forests.</p>
<p>The total value of its activities is about <a href="https://climatefundsupdate.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/CFF5-REDD-Finance_ENG-2021.pdf">US$2.9 billion</a>. This includes nations with vast rain forests as recipients like Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazil.</p>
<p>To ensure equity, the distribution of REDD+ benefits must consider various factors, including who receives the funds and how they are distributed.</p>
<p>After nearly twenty years, allocating REDD+‘s limited funds remains a challenging task. Why is this so? And how could it be improved?</p>
<h2>Who should get benefits from REDD+?</h2>
<p>REDD+ implementation involves the work of a diverse range of actors with various roles and responsibility, from the highest level of governments down to the grassroots level. As such, there is disagreement over who should get the payments.</p>
<p>Some argue that actors who hold legal rights to the land and actively participate in emission reduction efforts should receive the benefits. One example from this category is farmers who own the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Indigenous forest in Kenya." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An elder explains sacred hills’ map In Londiani, Kenya. As forest stewards, natives merit fair REDD+ pay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Violet Atieno/CIFOR)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Others think indigenous communities who have a historical connection with their forest land should receive the benefits.</p>
<p>Others argue payments should go to the poorest members of society so that REDD+ can help reduce poverty and promote sustainable development.</p>
<p>There are also groups who believe that institutions (including governments) acting as <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss4/art52/#rationaleV">REDD+ facilitators</a> should receive the payment, simply because REDD+ cannot be implemented without their involvement.</p>
<p>These different opinions complicate REDD+ fund distribution.</p>
<p>The government-led REDD+ program in <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/606071637039648180/pdf/Indonesia-East-Kalimantan-Project-for-Emissions-Reductions-Results-Benefit-Sharing-Plan.pdf">East Kalimantan Province</a>, Indonesia, shows how many people need to be involved. All stakeholders ranging from national to village-level governments, local and customary community groups and even private companies, have specific roles in reducing emissions.</p>
<p>Under this REDD+ program, the government and community groups receive an agreed-upon share of the payment, while the private sector gets non-monetary benefits, like enhancing their sustainable practices through capacity building.</p>
<h2>Different distribution justifications</h2>
<p>There at least three ways how REDD+ funds are being distributed.</p>
<p><strong>1. Direct cash based on performance</strong></p>
<p>Paying households or individuals based on their efforts to protect or restore forests is <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/7045">the best option of REDD+</a>. However, it is also the rarest and hardest one to implement so far.</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.cifor.org/redd-case-book/case-reports/peru/redd-project-brazil-nut-concessions-madre-de-dios-peru/">One example</a> is a forest restoration project initiated by private company Bosques Amazonicos SAC with Federation of Brazil nut producers in Madre de Dios, Peru. Prior to 2021, the company distributed 30% of the carbon sales revenue to the participating landholders. </p>
<p>However, from 2021 onwards, the company reported revenue will be distributed <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2021.624724/full">equally between all parties</a> once the project is able to sell more carbon credits, meaning the landholders will get more portion of payment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire drills in Indonesia forests." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Villagers use stick to fire during fire drills at Garantung village Palangkaraya, Indonesia. Combating forest fires is one of REDD+ goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Achmad Ibrahim/CIFOR)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102135">A study</a> conducted in 2020 by the Vietnam National University of Forestry discovered the Payment for Forest Environmental Services program brought significant positive changes to a local community who guarded the forest and prevented forest fire in Vietnam. This program offers money based on how well forests are taken care of.</p>
<p>However, the effect of payment on people’s livelihoods varies based on the local situation. In places like Lam Dong province, where there’s a substantial forest area, it notably <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/4247">boosts household incomes</a>. Yet, in areas like Dak Lak province, the payments are <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/10/1383">less appealing</a> compared to other options like coffee farming.</p>
<p><strong>2. Non-cash/in-kind, but also based on performance</strong></p>
<p>This is the most common benefit generated and distributed by REDD+. </p>
<p>Non-cash payment in REDD+ is a form of payment that does not involve money. The project administrator will provide these rewards once certain conditions, like successful forest conservation activities or meeting specific environmental goals, are fulfilled.</p>
<p>The reason behind it is REDD+ should impact both forests and local communities. It’s not only about saving trees or stopping deforestation; it also aims to improve people’s lives by meeting their social and economic needs. So, the benefits go beyond just money – they address important community concerns as well.</p>
<p>One REDD+ project in Jambi (an Indonesian province located in central Sumatra), for example, distributes payments to the community in accordance with their <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/8867">aspirations,</a> be it for food provision or funding religious activities of the communities’ choosing. </p>
<p>In Central Kalimantan, a <a href="https://rimba-raya.com/our-initiatives/">REDD+ project</a> partnered with the local government to provide a floating health clinic, which now regularly visits and provides basic healthcare services in multiple remote village areas along the river.</p>
<p><strong>3. Pre-payments to induce performance</strong></p>
<p>Pre-payments are upfront expenses paid by donor or government to help individuals overcome the potential losses from choosing a different way to use land.</p>
<p>These pre-payments may seem not ideal but in some places, this arrangement might be necessary otherwise they would not be able to participate in REDD+. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scientist examine bird population." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientist examines a African Pygme Kingfisher (Ispidina picta) on Yoko forest reserve, Democratic Republic of Congo. REDD+ project also encourage local communities in saving biodiversity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ollivier Girard/CIFOR)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>In Democratic Republic of Congo, <a href="https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/system/files/documents/BSP%20ER%20program%20Mai%20Ndombe_15%20June%202018_CLEAN.pdf">the government-led Maï-Ndombe REDD+ program</a> receives financial support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility – a global partnership of governments and non-government organisations for REDD+. </p>
<p>The partnership will provide a minimum of $5.3 million to help cover start-up costs and an additional amount of up to $1.9 million if the program successfully reduces emissions.</p>
<p>Similarly in <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099084503102316232/pdf/P1626050c673020320adf60bbaaf0f53be4.pdf">Vietnam’s</a> REDD+ program, the government has committed to allocate $1.8 million (3.5% of the total net payment of $51.5 million) to fund REDD+ preparation activities at the national level.</p>
<p>The activities include establishing new regulations, strengthening law enforcement and monitoring capacities. Donors will distribute the rest of the funds to the government and organisation, community and eligible individuals once the program has achieved emission reduction targets. </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>It’s important to have an equitable process to distribute REDD+ funds that takes into account different goals and the interests of all stakeholders involved.</p>
<p>We should ensure fair and equal sharing of benefits in REDD+ design by <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss4/art52/">following clear principles</a> and implementing strong social safeguards. These principles include considering contributions of all actors, meeting needs, and promoting equality.</p>
<p>The world must continuously <a href="https://www.cifor-icraf.org/gcs/knowledge-tree">learn, adapt and refine REDD+</a> implementation. We hope to see it implemented more efficiently in many locations, on a bigger scale.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research is part of CIFOR's Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (<a href="http://www.cifor.org/gcs">www.cifor.org/gcs</a>). The funding partners that have supported this research include the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad, Grant No. QZA-21/0124 ), International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU, Grant No. 20_III_108), and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (CRP-FTA) with financial support from the CGIAR Fund Donors.</span></em></p>REDD+ is a UN program to fight deforestation. But, have local and indigenous communities received their equitable benefits?Sandy Nofyanza, Researcher, Centre for International Forestry ResearchBimo Dwisatrio, Senior Research Officer, Centre for International Forestry ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120142023-08-24T02:03:32Z2023-08-24T02:03:32ZLeakage or spillover? Conservation parks boost biodiversity outside them – but there’s a catch, new study shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544193/original/file-20230823-23-fvjmxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=146%2C0%2C1514%2C1005&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Southern Red Muntjac deer peering at a camera trap.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s easy to assume protected areas such as national parks conserve wildlife – that seems obvious. But what is the proof? And how does park success vary across different ecosystems – in deserts versus tropical rainforests, or wetlands versus oceans? </p>
<p>While we can use satellite imagery to measure the effect of protected areas in reducing human impacts such as logging, you can’t see the animals from space. In particularly dense tropical rainforests, it was nearly impossible to accurately monitor wildlife, until remotely triggered camera traps became available in the past decade.</p>
<p>There is a longstanding conservation debate on the benefits that protected areas such as national parks have for biodiversity. </p>
<p>Some scientists have argued that conservation success inside park boundaries may come at the expense of neighbouring unprotected habitats. Essentially, they suggest parks displace impacts such as hunting and logging to other nearby areas. The technical term for this is <a href="https://rest.neptune-prod.its.unimelb.edu.au/server/api/core/bitstreams/018f26e0-7629-51b3-8bf4-5b3b4323c91d/content">leakage</a>. </p>
<p>On the other hand, marine parks have often reported higher biodiversity nearby. Fish reproduce successfully inside park boundaries and their offspring disperse, benefiting surrounding habitats in a “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1617138116300255">spillover</a>” effect. </p>
<p>We set out to see which of those effects actually prevails in protected land areas and their surrounds. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06410-z">new study</a>, published today in Nature, shows parks do enhance bird diversity inside their borders. Large parks also support higher diversity of both birds and mammals in nearby unprotected areas.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JQQ_5puMPy8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Rare rainforest species captured by camera traps used by the research team in protected areas across South-East Asia.</span></figcaption>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-major-players-in-conservation-ngos-thrive-while-national-parks-struggle-199880">The new major players in conservation? NGOs thrive while national parks struggle</a>
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<h2>What did the study look at?</h2>
<p>We recruited an international team of scientists to conduct a comprehensive analysis of bird and mammal diversity inside and outside parks across South-East Asia. We used more than 2,000 cameras and bird surveys across the region.</p>
<p>South-East Asia is one of the <a href="https://www.wildcru.org/news/south-east-asias-hotspots-of-biodiversity/">most biodiverse regions</a> on Earth, but <a href="https://rdcu.be/dkacH">hunting is a key concern</a>. It’s a prime suspect for why diversity has often been assumed to decline outside protected park areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people attaching a camera trap to a tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544154/original/file-20230823-23-c916v8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the research team set up a camera trap in Sumatra.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pheasant in a rainforest clearing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544167/original/file-20230823-21-2hnt2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Silver Pheasant eyes the camera.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hunters are mobile, so hunting bans within park boundaries may only displace these activities to nearby unprotected areas, undermining their net benefit. To be honest, we were surprised mammal diversity was higher outside large parks. It’s common to see hunters both inside and outside parks in many countries. </p>
<p>We expected hunters’ removal of game animals would reduce diversity outside parks. However, it appears large parks limit the impacts of hunting so it does not completely remove these animals. Specifically, when comparing unprotected areas near large reserves to unprotected areas that didn’t border large reserves, we found large reserves boosted mammal diversity in unprotected areas by up to 194%.</p>
<p>However, a sad note from our study was the finding that only larger parks significantly enhanced mammal diversity, casting doubt on the effectiveness of smaller parks for mammal conservation. Recent work in the region suggests many <a href="https://science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq2307">large mammals persist in small parks</a>, but our study shows the presence of a few resilient animals in small parks doesn’t scale up to higher biodiversity overall.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wild cat in a rainforest clearing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544195/original/file-20230823-15-65e55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Marbled Cat looks back at the camera.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-protecting-land-for-wildlife-size-matters-heres-what-it-takes-to-conserve-very-large-areas-201848">In protecting land for wildlife, size matters – here's what it takes to conserve very large areas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Not all parks are equal</h2>
<p>These findings are especially timely for the United Nations, which recently announced more ambitious biodiversity targets, including significant expansions of global protected areas. The <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/kunming-montreal-global-biodiversity-framework">UN strategy</a> is to conserve 30% of Earth’s lands and waters by 2030 – the so-called “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/global-environment-summit-idAFL8N32R3GW">30 by 30 goal</a>”. Massive expansions of the global area of protected land will be difficult and expensive, but our results support this approach.</p>
<p>The work provides a clear case for park design to consider size. Larger parks routinely had higher bird diversity. Large mammals such as tigers and elephants travel huge distances and don’t see park boundaries drawn on maps. Larger parks support these wide-ranging animals that move across entire landscapes.</p>
<p>Considering the UN’s goal of increasing protected area to 30% of the world’s surface, our findings support the creation of fewer larger parks, rather than many smaller ones. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Elephant's foot and trunk in a rainforest clearing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544161/original/file-20230823-23-kgl0vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Thai elephant captured by the camera trap moments before destroying it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protecting-30-of-australias-land-and-sea-by-2030-sounds-great-but-its-not-what-it-seems-187435">Protecting 30% of Australia's land and sea by 2030 sounds great – but it's not what it seems</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Next steps in South-East Asia and Australia</h2>
<p>Our findings also provide a much-needed conservation “win” for South-East Asia. Despite being a biodiversity hotspot, the region suffers from <a href="https://earth.org/deforestation-in-southeast-asia/">high rates of forest loss</a> and hunting, which pose threats to birds and mammals.</p>
<p>Our team built a collaborative network and massive database to conduct the analysis, and this can also be used to answer other questions. Our next project will quantify shifts in abundance – the numbers of animals rather than numbers of species – inside and outside parks. We suspect parks will support increased mammal and bird abundances, even more than increased in wildlife diversity.</p>
<p>Based on the success of the Asian collaborative network project, a related team is now building a domestic collaborative network and database to conduct similar analyses, called <a href="https://www.ecologicalcascades.com/wildobs">Wildlife Observatory of Australia</a>. Key questions will include the impact of fire and climate change on Australia’s wildlife diversity and abundance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212014/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research discussed in this article was supported by the United Nations Development Programme, NASA grants NNL15AA03C and 80NSSC21K0189, the National Geographic Society’s Committee for the Research and Exploration award #9384–13, the Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DECRA #DE210101440, the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia, Nanyang Technological University Singapore, the Darwin Initiative, Liebniz-IZW, and the Universities of Aberdeen, British Columbia, Montana and Queensland. Mammal data collection in one study area (out of 65) was funded by Sarawak Energy Berhad; no personnel from that agency participated in the data collection or analysis or reviewed the manuscript before it was submitted.</span></em></p>The UN ‘30 by 30’ biodiversity strategy aims to set aside 30% of land as protected areas. New research shows these areas do support biodiversity, but big parks also increase it outside their borders.Matthew Scott Luskin, Researcher and Lecturer in Conservation Science, The University of QueenslandJedediah Brodie, Research Fellow, Institute of Biodiversity and Environmental Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak; Associate Professor and John Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112262023-08-10T14:03:20Z2023-08-10T14:03:20ZIndia was a tree planting laboratory for 200 years – here are the results<p>Allowing forests to regenerate on their own has been championed as a strategy for reducing planet-heating carbon in the atmosphere while also boosting biodiversity, the benefits ecosystems offer and even the fruitfulness of livelihoods. </p>
<p>But efforts to increase global tree cover to limit climate change have <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01026-8">skewed</a> towards erecting plantations of fast-growing trees. The reasons are obvious: planting trees can demonstrate results a lot quicker than natural forest restoration. This is helpful if the objective is generating a lot of timber quickly or certifying carbon credits which people and firms buy to supposedly offset their emissions.</p>
<p>While plantations on farms and barren land can provide firewood and timber, easing the pressure on natural forests and so aiding their regeneration, ill-advised tree planting can unleash invasive species and even dispossess people of their land. </p>
<p>For more than 200 years India has experimented with tree plantations, offering important lessons about the consequences different approaches to restoring forests have on local communities and the wider environment. This rare long-term perspective should be heeded by foresters today to prevent past mistakes being repeated.</p>
<h2>Plantations in colonial-era India</h2>
<p>Britain extended its influence over India and controlled much of its affairs via the East India Company from the mid-18th century onwards. Between 1857 and 1947, the Crown ruled the country directly and turned its attention to the country’s forests.</p>
<p>Britain needed great quantities of timber to lay railway sleepers and build ships in order to transport the cotton, rubber and tea it took from India. Through the Indian Forest Act of 1865, forests with high-yielding timber trees such as teak, sal and deodar became state property. </p>
<p>To maximise how much timber these forests yielded, British colonial authorities restricted the rights of local people to harvest much beyond grass and bamboo. Even cattle grazing was restricted. Indian communities <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4372653">retaliated</a> by burning down some of the forests.</p>
<p>Meanwhile plantations of teak (<em>Tectona grandis</em>), a species well adapted to India’s hot and humid climate and a source of durable and attractive timber, spread aggressively. Pristine grasslands and open scrub forest gave way to teak monocultures.</p>
<p>Eucalyptus and other exotic trees which hadn’t evolved in India were introduced from around 1790. British foresters planted pines from Europe and North America in extensive plantations in the Himalayan region as a source of resin and introduced acacia trees from Australia for timber, fodder and fuel. One of these species, wattle (<em>Acacia mearnsii</em>), first introduced in 1861 with a few hundred thousand saplings, was planted in the Nilgiris district of the Western Ghats. </p>
<p>This area is what scientists call a biodiversity hotspot – a globally rare ecosystem replete with species. Wattle has since become <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320717321638?via%3Dihub">invasive</a> and taken over much of the region’s mountainous grasslands. </p>
<p>Similarly, pine has spread over much of the Himalayas and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-017-0947-1">displaced native oak trees</a> while teak has <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4372653">replaced sal</a>, a native hardwood, in central India. Both oak and sal are valued for fuel, fodder, fertiliser, medicine and oil. Their loss, and <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol25/iss4/art1/">the loss of grazing land</a>, impoverished many.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Mountains with a bank of clouds in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542121/original/file-20230810-15-wtnbsh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Western Ghats is a mountain range which runs 1,600 km along India’s west coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ilan Kumaran</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restoring forests in India today</h2>
<p>India has <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1574780">pledged</a> to restore about 21 million hectares of forest by 2030 under the Bonn Challenge. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2018.12.en">A progress report</a> released by the government of India and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in 2018 claimed around 10 million hectares was under restoration.</p>
<p>This focus on increasing the area of land covered with trees is reflected in India’s national forest policy, which aims for trees on 33% of the country’s area. Schemes under this policy include plantations consisting of a single species such as eucalyptus or bamboo which grow fast and can increase tree cover quickly, demonstrating success according to this dubious measure.</p>
<p>Sometimes these trees are planted in grasslands and other ecosystems where tree cover is naturally low. The <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/11/947/5903754">result</a> is that afforestation harms rural and indigenous people who depend on these ecosystems for grazing and produce. The continued planting of exotic trees risks new invasive species, in a similar way to wattle 200 years ago. </p>
<p>There are positive case studies too. The Forest Rights Act of 2006 empowered village assemblies to manage forest areas which had once been in traditional use. Several assemblies (known as <em>Gram Sabhas</em>) in the Gadchiroli district of central India have restored degraded forests and managed them as a sustainable source of <a href="https://india.mongabay.com/2022/06/low-prices-offered-by-the-government-pushes-tendu-leaf-collectors-to-explore-open-market/">tendu leaves</a>, which are used to wrap bidi (Indian tobacco). In the Kachchh grasslands of western India communities were able to restore grasslands by removing the invasive <em>gando bawal</em> (meaning “mad tree”) first introduced by British foresters in the late 19th century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A hand holding a stack of hand-rolled cigarettes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542152/original/file-20230810-23-zw8b0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tendu leaves can be rolled into thin cigarettes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burhanpur-madhya-pradesh-india-05-jan-1903477330">Parikh Mahendra N/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Future forests</h2>
<p>The success of forest restoration efforts cannot be measured by tree cover alone. The Indian government’s definition of “forest” still encompasses plantations of a single tree species, orchards and even bamboo, which actually belongs to the grass family. </p>
<p>This means that biennial forest surveys cannot quantify how much natural forest has been restored, or convey the consequences of displacing native trees with competitive plantation species or identify if these exotic trees have invaded natural grasslands which have then been falsely recorded as restored forests. </p>
<p>Natural forest regeneration and plantations for timber and fuel should both be encouraged, but with due consideration of how other ecosystems and people will be affected. This includes carefully choosing plantation species to ensure they don’t become invasive. </p>
<p>The objective of increasing tree cover should be assessed in terms of its implications for forest rights, local livelihoods, biodiversity and carbon storage. Some of the best practices on restoration through communities such as Gadchiroli should be studied and scaled up.</p>
<p>Planting trees does not necessarily mean a forest is being restored. And reviving ecosystems in which trees are scarce is important too. Determining whether local people and the environment are benefiting is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.12489">a more helpful</a> measure of success than simply scanning a forest canopy from above.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dhanapal Govindarajulu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plantations of exotic trees from the mid-19th century onwards devastated Indian ecosystems.Dhanapal Govindarajulu, Postgraduate Researcher, Global Development Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.