The good news includes a return to real wage growth and a restrained increase in unemployment. The bad news includes even higher home prices and a per-capita recession.
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Articles on economic forecasts
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The Conversation’s 29-member panel expects very weak economic growth and recessions in much of the rest of the world, but there’s good news down the track for Australians’ buying power.
The panel believes Australia will avoid a recession the year ahead, but is much less certain about the United States. It expects real wages to go backwards and economic growth to sink.
Jobs, economic growth, wages growth and even home price growth are likely to look less threatening by the time we are asked to vote.
In its quarterly statement on the economy the Bank is at pains to suggest it won’t be lifting interest rates quickly.
The bank’s decision to focus on just one thing puts the onus on the government to take action to rein in home prices.
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We’d be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
The Reserve Bank’s best case scenario is that its forecasts are wrong.
The Conversation’s distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Expect two more interest rate cuts, but they mightn’t be enough.
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Independent research estimates that Theresa May’s deal could reduce UK GDP per capita by between 1.9% and 5.5% over ten years.
The 2017 budget update will show an improvement in the outlook for debt compared with projections in May.
Polled economists say another independent body wouldn’t necessairly do a better job of economic forecasting for the budget than Treasury.
Wonky forecasts show it’s time for a new approach that adopts more conservative forecasts, and makes a genuine commitment to budget repair.
The budget is full of forecasts about where the economy is going, but other indicators are often more helpful.
Theresa May has read the economic runes – and called an election while she still confidently can.
Forecasts are crucial for all economic and business activity. But looking into the future involves uncertainty and risk. Forecasts may be inaccurate, which creates a serious dilemma for policy makers
Not too long ago, cynics were wondering if David Cameron’s fears over the global economy were a ploy to shift blame for any flaws in the UK’s performance as we near the May 2015 general election. However…
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