tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/elections-2016-32526/articlesElections 2016 – The Conversation2017-03-23T01:06:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/735792017-03-23T01:06:30Z2017-03-23T01:06:30ZWhy polls seem to struggle to get it right – on elections and everything else<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160990/original/image-20170315-5350-2mfuy8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Where are the people really going?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kewl/7174956792/in/photolist-bW2wFA-pYEWwU-gK8spY-ajABkP-tDcmgw-9nrFwV-bfTFwB-bn2aj5-57MtME-4kAEBD-22tkUX-22tm3r-7BPMe-35a6ac-6vnFyc-9r2UUq-398Xep-8PCxrc-9HUyEo-3jUP9-4BfLwD-a1PKRG-5AU2aE-r8aF5Y-daUDYL-pnJaLZ-9o7uzh-4LG94G-7Hqkur-fcLMGC-5zXRhW-663cyu-4PaZxJ-9PkavU-e9UKw-pRjuYG-8AmdYp-dSTVZG-aZwdMR-emsGPV-8z3zV2-4Rbphu-e5ScCL-4TX9Fp-7R33ej-7BB2Sy-qNjyM4-9KYb5u-oT1Q9G-dYfsLP">kewl/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I am a professor of mathematics, so my ears perk up when I hear someone say that polls seem inaccurate.</p>
<p>The public understandably focuses on polling results and how much these results seem to vary. Take two presidential approval polls from March 21. Polling firm <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history">Rasmussen Reports</a> reported that 50 percent of Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s performance, while, that same day, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx">Gallup</a> stated that only 37 percent do. In late February, the website FiveThirtyEight listed <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-polls-differ-on-trumps-popularity/">18 other presidential approval polls</a> in which Trump’s approval ratings ranged from 39 percent to 55 percent. </p>
<p>Some of these pollsters queried likely voters, some registered voters and others adults, regardless of their voting status. Almost half of the polls relied on phone calls, another half on online polling and a few used a mix of the two. Further complicating matters, it’s not entirely clear how calling cellphones or landlines affects a poll’s results. </p>
<p>Each of these choices has a consequence, and the range of results attests to the degree that these choices can influence results. </p>
<p>Polling is what mathematicians might call a “black art,” a tongue-in-cheek way of saying it does not have the precision of pure mathematics. This perspective offers some insight into why polls appear divided, contradictory, or even flat-out wrong – such as those in the recent presidential election. </p>
<p>In my view, the popular sense that polls are inaccurate stems not from poor polling practices, but from assumptions that both pollsters and the public make. For polls to be more useful to consumers, we need to understand their limitations. The practice of polling and how results are communicated could be improved to build better trust with consumers. </p>
<h1>Led astray</h1>
<p>Like many of you, I watched TV on the evening of Nov. 8 in increasing disbelief. I had closely followed <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight’s projections</a> throughout the election season. The site used hundreds of state presidential preference polls to model the election’s outcome. Its poll-based projections have a stellar track record: Between the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, FiveThirtyEight correctly forecast the victor in every state but one, as well as Washington, D.C.</p>
<p>While FiveThirtyEight’s final projections assigned a 71 to 72 percent probability to Hillary Clinton’s victory, it wasn’t as bullish on her chances as other poll-based models. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfron">The New York Times model</a> gave Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning. The <a href="http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/">Princeton Election Consortium</a> put Clinton’s probability of victory at greater than 99 percent. </p>
<p>Trump’s “surprise” victory led many to wonder how the polls and the models that use them got things so wrong. </p>
<p>At the national level, however, the polls did get it right. The final <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html">average of national polls at RealClearPolitics</a> had Hillary Clinton ahead by 3.2 percent nationally. Clinton won the popular vote by roughly 2.1 percent, well within the margin of error. </p>
<p>The presidential election is not decided by national votes, but rather at the state level. If the polls did err, it was in a handful of electorally important states. The majority of the poll-based models listed on The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront#other-forecasts">New York Times</a> site, including those of FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton Election Consortium, projected that Clinton would win the pivotal states of Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Most polls in these states put Clinton ahead as well. If Clinton lost two, or even three, of these states, she could still win. </p>
<p>When the results came in, many of us reacted with shock. Had we more closely attended to the implications of the margin of error, we would perhaps not have. </p>
<h1>The margin of error</h1>
<p>Every poll has a <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls">margin of error</a>.
The margin of error means that the true number is not necessarily the reported result, but is within a given range. </p>
<p>Pollsters include a margin of error because they are polling a tiny sample of the voting public. While pollsters do an excellent job of making sure their sample is representative of the voting public, it is rarely a perfect mirror, so there is inevitably error.</p>
<p>In other words, true support for a candidate could fall anywhere within a given range of the poll’s results.</p>
<p>For example, the Democratic polling firm <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf">Public Policy Polling</a> sampled 957 likely Michigan voters over two days in November, placing Clinton in the lead over Trump, 46 percent to 41 percent. The poll listed a 3.2 percent margin of error. </p>
<p>So, rather than a simple total, the polls provide a range of possible outcomes. The margin of error implied Clinton’s support level was between 42.8 and 49.2 percent – that is, 46 percent plus or minus the margin of error. Trump’s, likewise, lay between 37.8 and 44.2 percent.</p>
<p>It is entirely possible that both candidates’ votes could be in the overlap of their respective ranges. It is here that scenarios exist where Trump is ahead in Michigan. Most November polls in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had Clinton ahead, but, in almost every case, the final results fell within a poll’s margins of error. </p>
<p>It is quite natural to see a headline saying that Clinton leads in a poll and conclude that she is indeed ahead. But a correct interpretation of that result can include the possibility that she may not be. To be a savvy reader of polls requires knowing about polling’s inherent limitations. </p>
<h1>Hidden assumptions</h1>
<p>Polling is limited because pollsters make assumptions, including assumptions about likely voters and demographics. Out of necessity, these assumptions are based on voting patterns from past elections. </p>
<p>Pollsters need to project with a great deal of precision the final voting percentage of each of the subpopulations that compose the electorate. Since polling occurs before an election, it is no easy task to predict, for example, how many white working-class men will vote. Likewise, it is extremely difficult to know the degree to which the prospect of electing a black president drew African-Americans to the polls in 2008 and 2012. Pollsters have to make assumptions about these kinds of things, and each assumption introduces potential error. </p>
<p>The different assumptions polls make about their samples helps explain the broad range of results we saw in the Trump approval ratings.</p>
<p>It also may help explain why, during the election, Trump outperformed the polls in battleground states. His support was high among white working-class voters, who evidently came to the polls in greater numbers than expected. Clinton hoped that black voters would turn out close to how they did in 2008 or 2012, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/16/after-quietly-trying-to-suppress-voting-trump-and-his-fans-applaud-lower-black-turnout/?utm_term=.3729db8c4ef5">which did not occur</a>. Trump’s margin of victory in the pivotal states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was roughly <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president">77,000 votes</a> out of 15 million cast. </p>
<p>Very slight changes in demographic assumptions could have accounted for these 77,000 votes and resulted in polls that put Trump ahead.</p>
<h1>Hedging your bets</h1>
<p>There are ways to hedge against error. Baseball teams like the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox mix sophisticated analytics with an “eye test”: that is, the input of old baseball hands who rely on observation and feel rather than pure numbers. </p>
<p>Much in the same way, pollsters and modelers could try mixing in human elements. For example, to find out more about personality traits that might impact electability, the <a href="http://cookpolitical.com">Cook Political Report</a> incorporates personal interviews with candidates into their projections of House races. Pollsters could also try to gauge the enthusiasm of a presidential candidate’s supporters by measuring social media activity or public signs. </p>
<p>Another way to improve a poll’s accuracy would be to offer multiple demographic models. For example, Public Policy Polling could have used three different models for its Michigan poll, each based on different demographic assumptions. One might assume black turnout as being the same as the previous presidential election; the second could assume a slightly greater turnout; and the third a smaller one. While these kinds of results might resist easy reduction to a headline, they would provide a richer range of possibilities and perhaps fewer surprises. </p>
<p><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/">Some poll-based models</a> hedge against error by considering other factors, such as their own demographic analyses, incumbent approval ratings and economic indicators. Stating their results as a probability also serves to highlight the uncertainty involved. But they are still based on polls. </p>
<p>An apt analogy is another way to hedge. On the morning of the election, The New York Times observed that Clinton’s chances of winning were roughly the same that a professional field goal kicker will make a 37-yard field goal. </p>
<p>But even the best kickers sometimes miss.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Alexander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is Trump up or down? Will the public vote yes or no? Who will win the election? A mathematician’s guide to understanding polls in the media.Daniel Alexander, Professor of Mathematics, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/697622016-12-07T02:09:50Z2016-12-07T02:09:50Z‘Hail Trump’ salute recalls a powerful message of hate<p>During a Nov. 22 celebration of Donald Trump’s election triumph, members of a far-right organization, the National Policy Institute, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/richard-spencer-speech-npi/508379/">were filmed</a> extending a stiff arm in the iconic “Heil Hitler” salute of Nazi Germany. Ensuring there would be no mistaking the gesture, National Policy Institute President Richard Spencer shouted, “Hail Trump, hail our people, hail victory!”</p>
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<p>The video echoed, on a very small scale, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXST0wF5T4s">mass rallies</a> that were once held in Nazi Germany. Huge crowds with their arms raised “were an essential part of Nazi propaganda, designed to demonstrate public solidarity with the policies of the Nazi Party,” write Garth S. Jowett and Victoria O’Donnell in <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/propaganda-persuasion/book239374">“Propaganda & Persuasion</a>.”</p>
<p>Two years ago, when I prepared slides on the Nazi salute for my rhetoric class on “The Art of Argument,” I had no idea that I would soon see that gesture reborn in the America political landscape.</p>
<p>Before the Nov. 8 election, the use of the Nazi salute by a fringe group might have been dismissed as a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHmYIo7bcUw">“Springtime for Hitler”</a> moment, something too outrageous to be taken seriously, as satirized in “The Producers” <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063462/">movie</a> and Tony-winning Broadway <a href="http://broadwaymusicalhome.com/shows/producers.htm">musical</a>.</p>
<p>Post-election, the gesture represents something that demands serious attention. Historically, hand and arm gestures have had as powerful an impact as slogans or symbols. That Nazi salute should be considered in that context.</p>
<h2>History of gestures</h2>
<p>Certain gestures can send powerful rhetoric and cultural messages. There’s even an <a href="http://www.gesturestudies.com/">International Society for Gesture Studies</a> which promotes gesture studies worldwide. </p>
<p>Consider a common two-finger salute. During World War II, the two-finger salute of <a href="http://time.com/3880345/v-for-victory-a-gesture-of-solidarity-and-defiance/">“V for Victory”</a> gave courage to Allied troops. A similar gesture morphed into the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/from-churchill-to-libya-how-the-v-symbol-went-viral/2011/03/18/AFzPiYYB_story.html?utm_term=.d39cb938adde">peace sign</a>, a gesture of resistance and solidarity during the 1960s protests against the Vietnam War. Turn the V-sign palm facing in, and you have a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/lexicon_valley/2015/10/15/the_up_yours_gesture_looks_like_a_peace_sign.html">gesture</a> that is considered rude in the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>The Vulcan salute, adopted by actor Leonard Nimoy for the original “Star Trek” series, came from a Jewish blessing, and has become part of the American lexicon of gesture. After Nimoy’s death, <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2015/0228/A-sign-from-space-Live-long-and-prosper-Leonard-Nimoy-video">NASA astronaut Terry Virts</a> made the “Live Long and Prosper” sign while aboard the International Space Station and sent it to Earth via Twitter.</p>
<p>The current uproar over athletes kneeling during the National Anthem pales beside the outrage that greeted athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos when they each held aloft a black-gloved fist clenched in the “Black Power” salute during their <a href="http://time.com/3880999/black-power-salute-tommie-smith-and-john-carlos-at-the-1968-olympics/">medal ceremony</a> at the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico City.</p>
<p>A three-fingered salute plays a key role in the book series “The Hunger Games.” According to narrator Katniss Everdeen, <a href="https://www.quora.com/Why-has-the-three-finger-salute-in-The-Hunger-Games-become-the-icon-of-resistance-even-though-it-means-showing-thanks-admiration-and-good-bye-to-a-loved-one">raising a hand with three fingers</a> extended is “an old and rarely used gesture [that] means thanks, it means admiration, it means good-bye to someone you love.” In the book, the gesture becomes a sign of resistance.</p>
<p>Fiction became reality in May 2014, when three Thailand political activists protesting a coup held their hands up in a three-finger salute and were <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/21/world/asia/thailand-protesters-hunger-games-salute.html?_r=0">detained</a>. Thai authorities likely never heard of Katniss Everdeen, yet they knew a sign of rebellion when they saw it.</p>
<h2>As old as politics</h2>
<p>“Gestures are as old as politics itself,” <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2014-09-03/isis-sends-message">writes</a> Nathaniel Zelinsky in a Foreign Affairs article that probes the use of gestures employed by radical Islamists and other groups in Middle East. Zelinsky argues that we must pay attention to these hand signals as they “communicate complex political messages that Western observers have largely ignored.”</p>
<p>Gestures, he <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2014-09-03/isis-sends-message">notes</a>, including the Nazi salute, became especially important with the advent of mass media in the 20th century:</p>
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<p>“Consider what is perhaps the best-known example: Adolf Hitler’s fascist salute. In a single gesture, Hitler communicated the power of National Socialism, the obedience of German crowds, and his own role as a supreme leader. And because pictures of him saluting were printed in newspapers around the world, the symbol reached billions.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Europe, the Nazi salute is so potent it can be considered <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/queen-nazi-salute-countries-where-gesture-is-illegal-10401630.html">hate speech</a>. To get around these laws, a controversial <a href="http://theconversation.com/why-dieudonnes-quenelle-gesture-poses-challenges-for-britain-and-france-22731">French comedian</a> created an inverted Nazi salute called the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-25550581">“quenelle,”</a> in which a stiff arm is held down, rather than up, and is interpreted as support of anti-Zionism. The gesture has spread across the internet through selfies, as <a href="http://www.jewishledger.com/2015/04/conversation-with-prof-gavriel-rosenfeld/">Gavriel Rosenfeld</a> explores in his book “Hi Hitler: How the Nazi Past Is Normalized in Contemporary Culture.”</p>
<p>Unlike in France, gestures may fall under First Amendment protection in the United States, affording protection to even Nazi salutes. The National Policy Institute may have taken advantage of this protection in that November meeting. Whether deliberate or not, Trump supporters have displayed a Heil Hitler-like gesture at more than one <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-right-hand-salute_us_56db50d8e4b03a405678e27a">Trump rally</a>.</p>
<p>The stiff-arm salute is not a trivial gesture. It is not <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/29/an-establishment-conservatives-guide-to-the-alt-right/">alt-right</a> so much as it is Third Reich redux, a revival of a dangerous ideology. Just consider the message from the National Policy Institute’s <a href="http://www.npiamerica.org">website</a>, which declares it is “dedicated to the heritage, identity, and future of people of European descent in the United States, and around the world.” It is not a stretch to compare this to the Nazi veneration of the supposed <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Aryan">“Aryan”</a> or “ethnically pure” race. </p>
<p>Thus far, the president-elect has expressed more outrage over <a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/22/13714604/donald-trump-twitter-hate-crime">the cast of “Hamilton”</a> addressing Mike Pence at the theater than neo-Nazis saluting in his name.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Schorow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The reboot of the Nazi salute should not be taken lightly, given its history of hatred and genocide.Stephanie Schorow, Adjunct Professor of Professional Writing, Regis College, Regis CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/675322016-11-10T19:18:45Z2016-11-10T19:18:45ZHouse results: Republicans lose just a handful of seats, but party factions run deep<p>It is not a surprise that Republicans retained their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The unexpected result is that they will work with a Republican president and a Republican-controlled Senate in the 115th Congress. </p>
<p>A sea change lies ahead on Capitol Hill as Republicans shift from vociferously opposing a Democratic president to working as a team with a president of their own party who has no experience in governing. </p>
<h2>Few real contests</h2>
<p>Democrats needed to gain 30 seats to win control of the House; as of Nov. 10, they have gained seven. Even when Democrats anticipated a Clinton victory, gaining 30 seats was probably out of reach because the overwhelming majority of House races were not competitive. Before the election, the congressional newspaper Roll Call <a href="http://data.rollcall.com/electionguide/">rated 395 of 435 House seats as completely safe for one party</a> – 213 for Republicans, 182 for Democrats. Only 10 were rated as “tossups.” Eighteen were competitive but favored, leaned or tilted Republican and 12 favored, leaned or tilted Democratic. </p>
<p>Why were so few races competitive? As political scientist Gary Jacobson has shown, most congressional districts are already represented by a member of Congress who shares a party identification with a majority of his or her constituents – that is, <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/681670?Search=yes&resultItemClick=true&searchText=jacobson&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Djacobson%26amp%3Bfilter%3Djid%253A10.2307%252Fj100248%26amp%3BSearch%3DSearch%26amp%3Bwc%3Don%26amp%3Bfc%3Doff%26amp%3BglobalSearch%3D%26amp%3BsbbBox%3D%26amp%3BsbjBox%3D%26amp%3BsbpBox%3D&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">the party’s presidential candidate also wins the district</a>. Splitting tickets by voting for one party’s candidate for president and the other party’s candidate for the House or Senate once was common, but is at a historic low today. </p>
<p>Jacobson shows that before the 1994 elections, when Democrats held large majorities in the House and Senate, many of them represented districts that voted for GOP presidential candidates. But the advantages of incumbency kept most of them fairly safe, with reelection rates averaging near or above 90 percent. Incumbents use their institutional position and prerogatives to help their districts, appeal to voters on a personal basis and deter strong challengers. </p>
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<span class="caption">With little leverage as the minority party, House Democrats organized a sit-in to demand action on gun control legislation in June 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_sit-in#/media/File:US_House_Democrats_assume_floor_and_begin_22_June_2016_sit_in.png">C-SPAN/Wikipedia</a></span>
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<p>They still do these things today, but their high reelection rates are largely due to the fact that they represent districts that favor their party. That is true partly because more people now live near other people who share their political views, and partly because districts have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-math-solve-the-congressional-districting-problem-44963">gerrymandered</a> to advantage one party. </p>
<p>Democrats had hoped to pick up seats in suburban swing districts where Trump’s liabilities dogged Republican incumbents, but largely failed to do so. Exceptions included Stephanie Murphy, who defeated incumbent Republican John L. Mica in Florida’s 7th District; former member Carol Shea-Porter, who defeated incumbent Republican Frank Guinta in New Hampshire’s 1st district; and Josh Gottheimer, who defeated Scott Garrett in New Jersey’s 5th district. </p>
<p>But other GOP incumbents in competitive districts were reelected, despite Democrats’ efforts to link them to Trump. They included Barbara Comstock in Virginia’s 10th District, Erik Paulsen in Minnesota’s 3rd District, Bruce Poliquin in Maine’s 2nd District and Carlos Curbelo in Florida’s 26th District.</p>
<p>House Democrats had hoped to support a president of their own party, whether or not they won back control of the chamber. Shut out of power completely in the next Congress, House Democratic leaders will have very little influence over the legislative process. Instead they will focus on strategies designed to attract media attention to their opposition to GOP policies and to gain seats in the 2018 midterm elections. Given her fundraising prowess and record of relentlessly attacking Republicans, Nancy Pelosi is likely to retain her position as House Democratic leader. </p>
<h2>Republicans vs. Republicans</h2>
<p>Although the Republican House majority is largely intact, intraparty divisions that have plagued it since 2011 will persist. Indeed, they may be more significant with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and the White House. Despite their numerical advantage over Democrats and agreement on most policy issues, the Republican conference has been deeply divided at times over strategy in recent years. </p>
<p>During the 1990s there was a significant cluster of moderate Republicans in the House. This self-titled “Tuesday Group” worked to amend some GOP measures, particularly on issues involving reproductive health and the environment. Now, however, thanks in part to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/us/politics/pool-of-moderates-in-congress-is-shrinking.html">redistricting, retirements and campaign spending</a> by partisan organizations, it is much smaller and has not flexed its muscle recently. </p>
<p>Since 2011 internal party dissent has come mainly from disgruntled conservatives, including Tea Party Republicans in the 112th and 113th Congresses and Freedom Caucus members in the 114th Congress. The Freedom Caucus, a group of around 60 insurgent conservative Republicans, has criticized party leaders for being willing to compromise with President Obama and Democrats in Congress when necessary, particularly on passing budget legislation. Republican insurgents were key drivers of the government shutdown in 2013 and Speaker John Boehner’s resignation in 2015, and have caused headaches for party leaders – not because of policy disagreements but over tactics. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145333/original/image-20161109-19759-qb0yjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Freedom Caucus logo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Caucus#/media/File:House_Freedom_Caucus_logo.jpg">Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the next Congress, House Republicans will be under heavy pressure to support President Trump and GOP leaders. But some Freedom Caucus members may still cause problems if Republicans don’t enact change quickly enough, or if key Trump campaign promises are watered down during the legislative process. And policy disagreements between Trump and Republican leaders will be more obvious than they were during the campaign. </p>
<p>Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan is likely to be reelected as speaker, but will face some resistance because he distanced himself from Trump before the election. When Ryan refused to campaign with Trump in October, many conservative (and electorally safe) Republicans were angry, although others recognized that Ryan was making a strategic choice to focus on Republican House candidates. Freedom Caucus members may also demand a seat at the leadership table.</p>
<h2>Does unity matter?</h2>
<p>Research has found that in the past, legislative productivity levels <a href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://t0.gstatic.com/images%3Fq%3Dtbn:ANd9GcT5dHPT4fe7-3P9StKdhnK8BvryoEVcWxtO-VCAe2pIUq-UtSSW&imgrefurl=http://books.google.com/books/about/Divided_We_Govern.html%3Fid%3DO8noQryjpRYC%26source%3Dkp_cover&h=648&w=432&tbnid=PPa3Cf1FcwMEuM:&vet=1&tbnh=160&tbnw=106&docid=CjiuZNac01igmM&itg=1&client=safari&usg=__cDys9Kbz81FsqXMrVpXJ8axAe0w=&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiNsKmxwp7QAhVl3IMKHfTOAcYQ_B0IbDAK">did not vary greatly</a> between times when the federal government was under unified control and periods of divided government. Parties were internally divided, and Democrats and Republicans alike were willing to compromise. But more recent analysis and experience suggest that when opposing parties are deeply polarized, a party that achieves unified control of government <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/BrookingsCEPM_Polarized_figReplacedTextRevTableRev.pdf">is likely to be much more effective</a>.</p>
<p>President George W. Bush’s most significant legislative accomplishments – including major tax cuts and the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act - occurred when Republicans controlled the House and Senate. Similarly, President Obama successfully pressed Congress to enact the Affordable Care Act and student loan reform when Democrats controlled both houses. In both cases Congress and the president worked as a team, with members of Congress viewing the president as their team leader.</p>
<p>President Trump is likely to prioritize issues that Republicans agree on, such as tightening border security, cutting taxes and dismantling the Affordable Care Act. But even with unified party control, it will be challenging for Republicans to create proposals for reforming health care and rewriting immigration laws. And <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/house-gop-split-jeopardizes-trade-deal-118270">House Republicans are deeply divided over trade policy</a>, a cornerstone of Trump’s campaign. </p>
<p>Trump and Republican legislators have a common partisan identity and share many policy goals. Many House Republicans also have relationships with their former colleague, Vice President-Elect Mike Pence. All of these factors can help them work as a team. But Trump does not have previous electoral experience, and may not understand or have the patience for coalition-building in Congress. House Republicans largely withstood their Democratic challengers in the elections, but it remains to be seen whether they can legislate as part of a unified government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67532/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn L. Pearson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Democrats gained only a handful of House seats in this week’s elections, leaving Republicans in the majority. But can the GOP shift from opposing President Obama to supporting President Trump?Kathryn L. Pearson, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/674352016-10-25T02:33:45Z2016-10-25T02:33:45ZWhat does Trump have to do with the Hindu sacred syllable, om?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142958/original/image-20161024-28414-jea6yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A poster of Hindus for Trump, which shows Donald Trump in a 'yogi' pose.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://quintype-01.imgix.net/thequint%2F2016-03%2Fea42572c-8650-437b-82ef-96905adc0912%2FTrump.png?auto=format&q=60&w=976&fm=pjpg">HIndus for Trump</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Republican nominee Donald Trump was recently invited to <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/roads/2016/10/scenes_from_a_hindus_for_trump_rally_in_new_jersey.html">a fundraising event</a> organized by a conservative group of Hindu Americans, the <a href="http://www.rhcusa.com/">Republican Hindu Coalition</a>. A poster from the event, which describes the group as “Hindus for Trump,” portrays the candidate in a posture much like that of <a href="http://dkprintworld.com/product-detail.php?pid=1280856565">a yogi in deep meditation</a>.</p>
<p>It shows Trump, face pointing upward and hands outstretched, rising up from a mass of red, white and blue flower petals in the shape of a lotus. Prominently displayed in the center is the Indian <a href="http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0631215352.html">sacred syllable, “om,”</a> decorated with stars and stripes.</p>
<p>Om is the preeminent <a href="http://www.sunypress.edu/p-867-understanding-mantras.aspx">Sanskrit mantra</a> and symbol of Indian religions, especially Hinduism.
In terms of religious identity, this sign denotes Hinduism in much the same way that the star of David and the Christian cross represent Judaism and Christianity. Om has its own <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/india-antiqua-a-volume-of-oriental-studies-presented-by-his-friends-and-pupils-to-jean-philippe-vogel-cie-on-the-occasion-of-the-fiftieth-anniversary-of-his-doctorate/oclc/856610">dedicated sign</a> in the scripts for Hindi and other Indian languages. </p>
<p>In global culture, the om sign has come to stand for Indian spirituality in general. It has been widely adopted by <a href="http://www.yogajournal.com/article/philosophy/the-sound-of-om/">practitioners of yoga and meditation</a>. </p>
<p>However, contemplation, transcendence or Indian spirituality would seem to have little in common with Trump’s public persona that has been <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-trump/480771/">described by the media</a> as reflecting “narcissism, disagreeableness, grandiosity.” </p>
<p>So, what should we make of this juxtaposition of Trump and India’s “sacred syllable”?</p>
<h2>For the uninitiated, here is what om means</h2>
<p>The history of om stretches back more than 3,000 years. Om was first attested in <a href="https://www.sc.edu/uscpress/books/2002/3449.html">the Vedas</a>, a massive corpus of ancient “knowledge” (“veda” in Sanskrit) from the first millennium B.C. that furnishes the oldest and most authoritative texts of Hinduism. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/upanisads-9780199540259?cc=us&lang=en&%22%22">Upaniṣads</a>, a collection of later Vedic texts regarded as the foundation for Indian philosophy, hailed om as “this whole world” and as the singular distillation of all wisdom. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142959/original/image-20161024-28373-1mqgc3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Indian sacred symbol, om.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/anjibarton/5336947986/in/photolist-98BfGA-mgyXaj-dT4rmY-6PqWRD-9qy8Cr-5Debz4-7MGnNB-4VyYY1-b8CWc8-4mYpYV-4n3rQs-cZDe3f-9qB9vL-rbFHZ8-5MMJgF-ecrUMK-r6eP94-dWV2J1-xYkfY-pUM7K-5MN68p-4f6Rv-ecrTDH-7jg9dH-rgdL5q-ecxvAy-afMnVg-ea4urc-bm24hf-rboqfn-pqgMJy-5oRuz7-bYQpCq-qhY5FP-dXRwdj-om5Rg7-8kFbsn-4eDohf-6brXY8-dmsyKB-4HXwhp-fT88GN-fT72fY-acrx9o-5wF3wC-9nBZMA-pPXMAp-aWujJn-djEnp7-8jiZzW">anji barton</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Subsequent texts on Hindu law from the start of the Common Era <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-law-code-of-manu-9780199555338?cc=us&lang=en&">codified the practice</a> of intoning om at the start of every sacred recitation. </p>
<p>Hindu theological discourses emphasize that the sound of om is <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/reflections-on-resemblance-ritual-and-religion/oclc/781903502?referer=di&ht=edition">not of human origin</a> – rather, it is a divine revelation and an <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/books/9783110240030/9783110240030.331/9783110240030.331.xml">audible expression</a> of transcendence. By <a href="https://www.sc.edu/uscpress/books/2009/3843.html">chanting or contemplating</a> the mantra om, a practitioner gains access to a higher state of consciousness that leads to liberation from the cycle of rebirth. </p>
<p>In all these respects, the syllable has served as the quintessential symbol of religious authority in Hinduism – a role it continues to play up through the present day. </p>
<h2>Multiple forms of om</h2>
<p>This history, however, is not that simple. My research <a href="http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:17467527">into om’s early history</a> reveals that this symbol, much like the Hindu traditions it has come to represent, is neither monolithic nor static. </p>
<p>Om did not emerge suddenly as a full-fledged symbol of knowledge and the cosmos. Instead, premodern Hindu thinkers gradually constructed om as a single concept through contentious debates and theological reflections. </p>
<p>My research shows om in the Vedas does not have a single form or meaning. It is recited in many ways, appears in many different ritual contexts, and inspires a wide range of interpretations. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/jyotistoma-ritual-jaiminiya-brahmana-i-66-364/oclc/20800460&referer=brief_results">Vedic experts in music</a> described it as the sound of the sun, since it introduced their songs just like the sun signals the start of the day; the same singers called om “honey” for the sweetness it added to their melodies.
<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/satapatha-brahmana-according-to-the-text-of-the-madhyandina-school-2-books-iii-and-iv/oclc/162288230&referer=brief_results">Vedic specialists in sacrifice</a> glossed om as an affirmation of ritual actions, as the “truth” inherent in their mantras.
<a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo7878005.html">Other Vedic thinkers</a> maintained that om was a secret password for attaining immortality at the moment of death. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142962/original/image-20161024-28380-1b6owtl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Om has many forms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cdrummbks/4850969324/in/photolist-8U6JMm-9eRRkZ-8oEub9-bnUyjx-2LX3rA-5EGCAw-6Ax7wx-4YfVjW-6ob56e-noQiFJ-dsVJsD-75k8Lp-6HRq9u-8nnhSb-7vUnNx-6oaS8a-9nRLz4-5is2tz-HPLN2-7bif4E-2AdiHk-BWSfbT-wLUtim-dyEu7u-7bqs93-JgeEg-nEgHak-9qJMex-gMnzho-4sPC3f-qnk5a-i8noWz-63ttNM-iY7K9C-ba9Q6c-4Ux9Lz-d3DLw-5LYNng">Dietmut Teijgeman-Hansen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Such examples could be multiplied many times over, not just in the Vedas but also in subsequent texts from Hindu, Buddhist and other Indian religious traditions where om is central to discussions about yoga, meditation, creation and salvation.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that India’s sacred syllable emerged over many centuries, depended on the contributions of different voices and accrued countless meanings along the way.</p>
<p>As a researcher of om, whenever I encounter the sign – whether inscribed in a manuscript, displayed at a Hindu temple or featured on a Donald Trump poster – its history of multiple meanings flashes into my mind. </p>
<h2>There is no one Hindu voice</h2>
<p>Now, against this background, let’s look at what the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/HindusForTrump/">Hindus for Trump</a> group is doing with its juxtaposition of Trump and om. </p>
<p>Hindus for Trump is closely allied with the Republican Hindu Coalition (RHC). Founded in 2015 by businessman Shalli Kumar, the RHC claims to provide “<a href="http://www.rhcusa.com/mission-statement.html">a single, unified platform</a> for raising voice of Hindu Americans in public policy.” </p>
<p>In my view this raises the following issues:</p>
<p>Although in some contexts om is simply shorthand for “Hindu,” it seems problematic to harness this complex symbol to the single agenda of right-wing political activism among Hindu Americans. </p>
<p>Additionally, this raises another question: Do Hindu Americans really speak with only one voice? </p>
<p>Judging from <a href="http://newjersey.news12.com/news/south-asian-community-leaders-speak-out-against-trump-1.12459525">the protests</a> and the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SouthAsiansDumpTrump?src=hash">backlash on social media</a>, there are many Hindu Americans besides Hindus for Trump and the RHC who might be inclined to associate Trump with syllables more profane than sacred.</p>
<p>Om’s history exemplifies the fact that Hindu traditions and Hindu identity are complex and varied. <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Religions-of-South-Asia-An-Introduction/Mittal-Thursby/p/book/9780415223911">“Hinduism”</a> covers an astonishing array of doctrines, practices and lifestyles in India, Asia and around the world. </p>
<p>While Hinduism’s history has not been free from <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/teaching-religion-and-violence-9780195372427?cc=us&lang=en&#">conflict</a>, there is an abiding <a href="http://www.sadhana.org/sadhana-speaks/">openness to diversity</a> at the roots of the tradition, as this famous verse from the Vedas attests (<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rigveda-9780199370184?cc=us&lang=en&">Rig Veda</a> 1.164): </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Truth is one but the wise call it by many names.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>From a <a href="https://www.srilakshmi.org/">temple complex in suburban Boston</a> to a <a href="http://nomadit.co.uk/easas/ecsas2016/panels.php5?PanelID=3768">street shrine in Varanasi</a>; from <a href="http://www.harrassowitz-verlag.de/title_4425.ahtml">Sanskrit dramas in Kerala</a> to <a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195343021.001.0001/acprof-9780195343021">processions in Nepal</a> – <a href="http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-140516011X,subjectCd-RE20.html">every day</a>, practitioners, devotees and regular people create, contest and carry forward the traditions of this world religion in multiple ways.</p>
<p>The jarring juxtaposition of Trump and om reminds us that there is more to Hinduism and its iconography than a political poster can convey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67435/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Finnian M.M. Gerety does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent poster displayed Donald Trump with the Indian spiritual symbol of ‘om.’ Here is the problem:Finnian M.M. Gerety, Visiting Assistant Professor, Religious Studies, Brown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.