tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/electrical-grid-17808/articlesElectrical grid – The Conversation2024-03-17T19:01:24Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253462024-03-17T19:01:24Z2024-03-17T19:01:24ZSmart meters haven’t delivered the promised benefits to electricity users. Here’s a way to fix the problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582098/original/file-20240315-18-3y4x18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C311%2C3642%2C2419&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-modern-smart-grid-residential-digital-108664646">Pi-Lens/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/advanced-metering-infrastructure-market">Billions of dollars</a> are being spent worldwide to modernise electricity grids with smart meters. These meters promise to save households money by making it easier for us to understand and manage our energy use. However, our <a href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(24)00055-9">new research</a> suggests these promises might not be fully delivered due to a lack of access to high-resolution, real-time energy data.</p>
<p>Smart meters are the enabling technology of modern smart electricity grids. Smart grids can use digital technology to fine-tune the management of electricity supply and demand. This ensures the grid can deliver low-cost and reliable power. </p>
<p>Countries like Australia are racing to install smart meters extensively. Last year the Australian Energy Market Commission <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/emo0040_-_metering_review_-_final_report.pdf">recommended</a> a goal of 100% uptake among small customers by 2030. In response, an Australian Energy Council <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/rushing-to-the-finish-line-can-we-clear-the-hurdles-on-the-way-to-100-smart-meters-by-2030/">article</a> suggested these meters aren’t living up to their potential. </p>
<p>This isn’t just an Australian problem – it’s a global challenge. <a href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(24)00055-9">Our research</a> offers a solution to unleash the promised benefits of smart meters at least cost. From improving data transmission to protecting our privacy, there’s a lot we can do to make our energy systems smarter and fairer for everyone.</p>
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<h2>Why do we need a truly smart grid?</h2>
<p>Our demand for electricity is set to soar as the push to electrify everything gains momentum. The Victorian government, for instance, has <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/691119/Victorias-Gas-Substitution-Roadmap-Update.pdf">banned gas in new homes</a> from 2024. </p>
<p>The International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/green-energy-electricity-demand-growth-iea-report/">forecasts a 3.4% annual rise</a> in electricity consumption from 2024 to 2026. As transportation electrifies, electricity’s share could increase <a href="https://www.irena.org/Energy-Transition/Technology/Transport">from 1% in 2018 to 49% by 2050</a>.</p>
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<p>To meet this growing demand while cutting carbon emissions, we must ramp up renewable energy production. However, the unpredictable nature of wind and solar power presents challenges for the grid.</p>
<p>To manage highly variable supply and demand, we need to digitise our grid. Advanced technologies such as sensors, machine-learning algorithms and cloud computing will enable us to optimise electricity generation, distribution and consumption. </p>
<p>Smart meters are the cornerstone of such a system. They can provide the detailed, real-time data needed for smart grid applications. </p>
<p>Smart meter deployment has surged globally. The smart meter market is <a href="https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/advanced-metering-infrastructure-market">forecast</a> to grow from US$17.5 billion ($A26.6 billion) in 2024 to US$31.8 billion by 2028.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(24)00055-9">Our research</a> sheds light on this global deployment and its significant challenges. </p>
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<span class="caption">A summary of the rollout of smart meters in selected countries. (Data for Australia and US from 2023, Canada, China, Japan and UK from 2022, and Sweden, Estonia and Denmark from 2020. DSO = distribution service operator, IESO = independent electricity system operator)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(24)00055-9">Rui Yuan et al 2024</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-successful-energy-transition-depends-on-managing-when-people-use-power-so-how-do-we-make-demand-more-flexible-213079">A successful energy transition depends on managing when people use power. So how do we make demand more flexible?</a>
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<h2>What will better data allow us to do?</h2>
<p>Grid modernisation and smart meters came with big promises of saving money for consumers. This hasn’t happened. The reason is that many direct benefits to consumers require high-resolution data – and the required level of fine detail in real time isn’t being provided. </p>
<p>For example, as a direct benefit to consumers, <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8322199">some machine-learning techniques</a> can help households optimise their energy use by providing insights into exactly how much electricity each appliance is using and when. This information could enable them to lower their electricity bill. These tools can also detect abnormal usage patterns, allowing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/int.22876">timely intervention and maintenance</a> of faulty appliances. </p>
<p>However, these applications and <a href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(24)00055-9">other smart grid benefits</a> for consumers all require high-resolution data. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-wasnt-made-for-a-renewable-energy-future-heres-how-to-fix-it-215067">The National Electricity Market wasn't made for a renewable energy future. Here's how to fix it</a>
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<h2>What obstacles must be overcome?</h2>
<p>We found three major reasons for the current limitations of smart-metering infrastructure. </p>
<p><em>Data transmission</em> is the first big challenge. High-resolution and more frequent data means a higher volume of numbers, which leads to more delays or disruptions to data transmission. </p>
<p>The second challenge is the <em>data warehousing</em> needed for huge volumes of data. It’s expensive too. </p>
<p>Building and running a data warehouse costs <a href="https://ilsr.org/utilities-customer-data-portability-ler155/">US$19,000–$25,000 per terabyte</a> each year. Upgrading from hourly data to every two seconds requires 1,800 times the storage, at an extra cost of US$36 million! And that’s not counting maintenance, backups, or sharing the data.</p>
<p>The third major issue is <em>data privacy</em>. The data can also be exploited by attackers. They could figure out what appliances you have, your home setup, or even your habits. </p>
<p>This can lead to criminal activities or serious invasion of privacy. For example, people could be tracked based on their vehicle-charging patterns. </p>
<p>Even law enforcement uses electricity data in court cases. One case involved the detection of <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/546876/microsoft-subnet-are-smart-meters-real-time-surveillance-spies.html">indoor marijuana growing</a>.</p>
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<h2>A way forward at the cheapest cost</h2>
<p>Ideally, we need a solution that tackles all the issues using the smart meters we already have. <a href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(24)00055-9">Our solution</a> is based on discovering repeated patterns within electricity usage data, then dividing these data into two parts. </p>
<p>It’s like a book divided into piles of papers and page numbers, with each then handed to different parties. Neither the page alone nor the page numbers make sense until they are combined. </p>
<p>Similarly, we suggest dividing detailed data into smaller patterns called codewords and their daily representations. We’d send only representations to the data centre, letting users keep their codewords to ensure their privacy. </p>
<p>Patterns of energy use often repeat. By using a single codeword to represent multiple days of similar consumption, we can greatly reduce the amount of data that needs to be transmitted. This would cut data communication and warehousing costs. </p>
<p>Continuous research on software, hardware and regulations is needed to refine the proposed framework for the stages of data collection, transmission, storage and analysis. </p>
<p>It’s important for modern energy consumers to be aware that as well as consuming and generating energy (from rooftop solar systems), they also generate data through their smart meters. This data asset is becoming increasingly valuable in the transition to the net-zero era.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Pourmousavi Kani receives funding from Future Battery Industry Cooperative Research Centre (FBICRC) and Watts AS (from Denmark) for his research. He also has done and is currently involved with consulting jobs that are available in his resume. None are related to the topic of this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rui Yuan receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program and Watts AS (Denmark) for his PhD research. He currently affiliates with Watts AS. </span></em></p>The amount of detailed real-time data a smart grid needs to manage the push for electrification and renewables presents challenges – but there’s an affordable solution.Ali Pourmousavi Kani, Senior Lecturer of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, University of AdelaideRui Yuan, Industry PhD Candidate, School of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241482024-02-27T22:57:44Z2024-02-27T22:57:44ZWe can’t say yet if grid-breaking thunderstorms are getting worse – but we shouldn’t wait to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578151/original/file-20240227-24-2wzo6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-cloud-details-530178991">Janelle Lugge/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On February 13, six transmission line towers in Victoria were destroyed by extreme wind gusts from thunderstorms, leading to forced electricity outages affecting tens of thousands of people. The intense winds knocked trees onto local power lines or toppled the poles, which caused about 500,000 people to lose power. Some people went without electricity for more than a week. A month earlier, severe thunderstorms and wind <a href="https://www.westernpower.com.au/news/storm-destroyed-transmission-line-rebuilt-and-re-energised/">took out</a> five transmission towers in Western Australia and caused widespread outages. </p>
<p>Intense thunderstorm events have made news in recent years, including the January 2020 storms that caused the collapse of <a href="https://www.esv.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Cressy_500kV_Tower_Incident_31Jan2020_report.pdf">six transmission towers in Victoria</a>. Perhaps the most far-reaching storms were those in 2016, when all of South Australia lost power for several hours after <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/thunderstorm-reports/Severe_Thunderstorm_and_Tornado_Outbreak_28_September_2016.pdf">extreme winds</a> damaged many transmission towers. </p>
<p>So are these thunderstorms with extreme winds getting worse as the climate changes? It’s possible, but we can’t yet say for sure. That’s partly because thunderstorms involve small-scale processes harder to study than bigger weather systems. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<h2>How can wind topple a giant transmission tower?</h2>
<p>Many people saw the photos of transmission towers bent like thin wire and wondered how it was possible.</p>
<p>The reason is physics. When wind hits a structure, the force it applies is roughly proportional to the wind speed squared. When wind gusts are stronger than about 100 kilometres per hour, even just for a few seconds, there can be a risk of damage to infrastructure. </p>
<p>Direction matters too. Wind has greater force when it blows more directly towards a surface. If strong winds blow from an unusual direction, risk of damage can also increase. Old trees, for instance, may be more firmly braced against prevailing winds – but if storm winds blow from another direction, they might topple onto power lines. </p>
<p>On February 13, a strong cold front was approaching Victoria from the southeast, bringing thunderstorms with extreme wind gusts over 120 km/h after a period of extreme heat. Thunderstorms can create extremely strong and localised gusty winds, sometimes called “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_microbursts">microbursts</a>” due to cold heavy air falling rapidly out of the clouds. These winds were enough to bend towers and topple trees and poles. </p>
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<h2>Are these thunderstorm winds getting worse?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">Scientific evidence</a> clearly shows climate change is steadily worsening hazards such as extreme heatwaves and bushfires, which can damage our grid and energy systems. </p>
<p>On balance, evidence suggests tropical cyclones may become less frequent but more severe on average. All but one of Australia’s tropical cyclones <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season">this summer</a> have been severe (Category 3 or higher).</p>
<p>But we aren’t yet certain what climate change does to extreme winds from thunderstorms.</p>
<p>This is because high-quality observations of past thunderstorms are relatively rare, with large variability in how often storms occur and their severity, and because climate models have difficulties simulating the small-scale processes which give rise to thunderstorms.</p>
<p>The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/severethunder.shtml#formation">thunderstorms to form</a>. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture. </p>
<p>We also know the severity of thunderstorms can be affected by <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81211-vertical-wind-shear-and-convective-storms">vertical wind shear</a>, which is the way the wind changes with height. To date, we’re less certain about how wind shear will change in the future.</p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021JD034633">Recent research</a> by coauthor Andrew Brown and the lead author suggests climate change is likely causing more favourable conditions for thunderstorms with damaging winds, particularly in inland regions of Australia. But the methods used for these predictions are new, meaning more research needs to be done for further insight on what climate change will do to extreme winds.</p>
<h2>We shouldn’t wait to find out</h2>
<p>Modelling extreme wind gusts is still in its infancy. But given so much of our electricity grid is exposed to extreme winds, it’s important we try to address this gap in our knowledge.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say we should treat these storms as a warning. We should factor the risks from extreme winds into how we design our energy systems. It’s especially important as we build a grid able to handle clean energy that we anticipate these kinds of risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>Hardening the grid by burying powerlines and removing vegetation isn’t the only option. We could build a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275411779_The_Grid_Stronger_Bigger_Smarter_Presenting_a_Conceptual_Framework_of_Power_System_Resilience">smarter grid</a>, with distributed renewables and energy storage including large as well as relatively smaller (e.g., community-level or household-level) batteries, giving the grid greater resilience including against extreme weather events.</p>
<p>In the wake of South Australia’s devastating 2016 <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/aemc_-_sa_black_system_review_-_final_report.pdf">grid outage</a>, authorities moved to boost grid resilience in this way, building big batteries, more renewables and new interconnectors, while Australia’s energy market operator AEMO changed how it <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">dealt with windfarms</a> if grid issues occur. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
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<p>Power grids are the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a44067133/how-does-the-power-grid-work/">largest machines</a> in the world. As we move to a clean energy grid, we face complex challenges – not just in building it, but in protecting it against extreme weather. </p>
<p>We would be well served if we work to better understand the risks of compound events, such as combinations of extreme winds, fires or floods hitting a region around the same time. </p>
<p>We also need accurate predictions of risks shortly before extreme winds or other disasters strike, as well as effective long-term planning for the risks likely to increase due to climate change or during different climate cycles such as El Niño and La Niña.</p>
<p>If we get this response wrong, our energy bills will rise too much and, worse, we still might not have a more resilient system. Since our energy networks are regulated by a complex set of government rules, reform is not just something for industry to address. It must ultimately be led by government – and guided by evidence.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-power-outage-could-have-been-far-worse-can-we-harden-the-grid-against-extreme-weather-224142">Victoria's power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the University of Melbourne's Melbourne Energy Institute and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Brown receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Vincent receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brear receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies. These companies include those that are responsible for energy networks, energy generation, energy retail and energy use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierluigi Mancarella receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies, include those that are responsible for energy networks, generation, retail and use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Lane receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Extreme winds from thunderstorms have downed transmission towers from Victoria to Western Australia in recent years. What’s going on?Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneAndrew Brown, Ph.D. student, The University of MelbourneAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneClaire Vincent, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneMichael Brear, Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbournePierluigi Mancarella, Chair Professor of Electrical Power Systems, The University of MelbourneTodd Lane, Professor, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241422024-02-22T19:19:00Z2024-02-22T19:19:00ZVictoria’s power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?<p>Last week’s destructive storm took Victoria by surprise. As winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour raced through the state, transmission towers near Geelong toppled and the grid went into chaos. </p>
<p>At its worst, almost one in five Victorian homes were left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/victorias-electricity-spot-prices-soar-as-states-largest-coal-generator-suffers-outage">without electricity</a>
while the main transmission system came <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/market_notices_and_events/power_system_incident_reports/2024/preliminary-report---loss-of-moorabool---sydenham-500-kv-lines-on-13-feb-2024.pdf?la=en">close to collapse</a>. </p>
<p>That makes it comparable to Victoria’s last <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/wild-weather-warning-as-storms-lash-melbourne-regional-victoria/100578948">grid-crippling storms</a> in October 2021. </p>
<p>But this power outage could have been much worse. It speaks to the urgent need to harden our grid against the more frequent extreme weather expected under climate change. </p>
<h2>What actually happened?</h2>
<p>It was very hot in Victoria on February 13. Fires raged in central Victoria, claiming dozens of houses. When a cool change arrived, it brought extreme winds. </p>
<p>At about 12.35pm, Australia’s largest windfarm, Stockyard Hill, disconnected from the grid, as a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/vicemergency/photos/watch-act-grass-fire-leave-nowincident-location-stockyard-hillissue-date-tuesday/719539106985386/?paipv=0&eav=AfZh-4_GUI540qgzMqlBWjgP6p6IhujLW7rBtJ4YFeC4rUOuizrz_zn82hPUhOAsn3g&_rdr">grass fire</a> threatened its grid connection. </p>
<p>As it happens, the loss of the windfarm was actually a lucky break.</p>
<p>At 2.08pm, six of Victoria’s highest voltage transmission towers (500 kiloVolt) were toppled by extreme downdrafts. This catastrophe took out two sets of 500 kV powerlines transporting much of the electricity from wind farms in western and south western Victoria to Melbourne. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>At the time of collapse, the circuits were likely fairly heavily loaded. They would have been much more heavily loaded had Stockyard Hill windfarm not dropped off the system 90 minutes earlier from the unrelated grass fire. </p>
<p>In response to the 500 kV faults, voltages dipped, forcing all four of the large coal-fired generating units at Loy Yang A to disconnect. Two wind farms in western Victoria were disconnected automatically, as intended in their cases.</p>
<p>During most of the transmission crisis, rooftop solar became the largest source of supply in Victoria.</p>
<p>In addition to the transmission events, damage to local distribution poles and wires was widespread, especially in regional Victoria. This <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/experts-to-review-victoria-s-energy-crash-after-extreme-storms-20240220-p5f6as.html">cut power</a> to about one in five Victorian homes. </p>
<p>In about two hours, the power system had stabilised. Gas and hydro generators rushed in to fill the gap left by Loy Yang A and the wind farms, and Victoria got through its evening peak. Many homes on however still remain without power through distribution network failures.</p>
<p>In response, the Victorian government has <a href="https://www.insidestategovernment.com.au/victorian-govt-announces-independent-review-of-storm-response/">announced</a> it will appoint an independent panel to review the disaster, <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/independent-review-green-lit-into-vic-storms-blackout">closely following</a> the review of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/dandenongs-storms-residents-still-reeling-a-year-later/103068ad-295d-41db-9618-27386380c498">devastating storms</a> in June 2021. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review">final recommendations</a> from the review of the 2021 storms, the panel played it safe, calling for better communication with affected communities, beefed up emergency responses and relief delivery and so on. </p>
<p>The government also <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20Response%20to%20the,Victoria%20to%20submit%20a%20request">accepted</a> a key recommendation: any major changes to strengthen network resilience should be referred to the Australian Energy Markets Commission, thereby kicking the big challenges into the long grass.</p>
<p>This time round, the omens are inauspicious. The government has explicitly excluded transmission from its review, instead relegating it to the electricity safety regulator. This is short-sighted. The Victorian transmission network is heavily exposed to weather risk and it is getting worse. </p>
<h2>What should be done about it?</h2>
<p>This won’t be the last grid-buckling extreme weather we’ll see. Far from it. </p>
<p>There are many things that can be done to reduce weather risk, and putting high (and low) voltage lines underground is often spoken about. </p>
<p>It will be expensive. In the wake of devastating fires, California’s <a href="https://www.pge.com/en/outages-and-safety/safety/community-wildfire-safety-program/system-hardening-and-undergrounding.html#:%7E:text=We%20are%20upgrading%20our%20electric,improve%20reliability%20during%20severe%20weather.">largest utility</a> committed to put 16,000 km of lines underground. So far, almost 1,000 km has been completed. But the cost has <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2024/02/20/fighting-fires-in-the-power-sector/">been substantial</a> – around A$3.2 million a kilometre. </p>
<p>Victoria has 148,000 km of distribution lines of which 84% is overhead and 16% underground, a similar proportion to the rest of Australia. It’s much easier and cheaper to put distribution lines underground than transmission lines. </p>
<p>If we optimistically assume the same cost as in California, boosting the proportion of Victoria’s distribution network that is underground by 10 percentage points (to 26%) would cost around $37 billion. That’s more than double the regulatory value of the distribution network in Victoria. </p>
<p>Is enhanced vegetation management – widespread tree clearing near lines cheaper? Perhaps not. <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP347.pdf">Research in California </a> suggests undergrounding may actually be more cost-effective in terms of fires avoided. </p>
<p>More cost-effective than undergrounding are rapid switches, devices able to quickly clear faults and reduce the chance downed lines will start fires. Victoria began requiring distributors to install these from 2016, following the state’s 2009 Black Saturday fires, where downed powerlines sparked several lethal blazes. Their effectiveness is yet to be proven. </p>
<p>These are difficult questions and much is to be gained by considering them carefully. This will require the government to reach for more than another set of “must-try-harder” recommendations.</p>
<h2>What about building new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>Even as extreme weather topples huge transmission towers, state and federal governments are pressing ahead to build more. Expanding transmission capacity is important to decarbonise our electricity supply. But if not done well, it will increase exposure to weather risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/cb01c4_adef2391c5414148bf8f388a0f1dcebe.pdf">Our study</a> of VNI-West, the proposed massive new Victoria-New South Wales interconnector, found it would greatly increase Victoria’s energy security risk.</p>
<p>Why? Because it will be very heavily loaded, much more so than the 500 kV lines that failed last week, and it carries two sets of conductors on one set of towers. </p>
<p>This proposed new interconnector will make Victoria deeply dependent on NSW for its electricity supply. In a little over a decade Victoria is expected to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">import 26%</a> of its grid-supplied electricity, much of it conveyed on VNI-West. This is an astonishing and little-known aspect of Victoria’s existing electricity policy.</p>
<p>Vandalism or extreme weather could, at a stroke, disable this new transmission line. In our report we drew attention to sabotage and weather risk and since out report we have seen yet more evidence of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/two-charged-after-allegedly-tampering-with-power-pole-that-cut-electricity-to-thousands-of-homes-20230913-p5e4cc.html">sabotage</a>, and now we have another clear example of the risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>To date, Australia’s market operator has <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_e9a4bfe6fd1f44ffb16b1d3eb9da3e5c.pdf">brushed off</a> our critique without reason.</p>
<p>Victoria dodged a bullet last week. It could have been far worse. To be ready for the next major storm, we should at the very least have a bipartisan parliamentary inquiry into the events of February 13. And this must scrutinise whether the proposed Victoria-NSW interconnector could survive a similar event – and what would happen if it did not. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transmission towers bent like soft plastic when extreme winds whipped through Victoria last week. Fixing it means asking hard questions.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234942024-02-13T21:10:54Z2024-02-13T21:10:54ZA major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575377/original/file-20240213-20-i4kmb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4181%2C2783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Loy Yang power station </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Half a million homes and businesses in Victoria were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-13/power-outage-victoria-loy-yang-a-down-storms-damage-transmission/103461222">left without power</a> late on Tuesday following a major power outage. The disruption occurred when severe winds knocked over several high-voltage electricity transmission towers, causing all four units of the Loy Yang A coal-fired power station to trip and go offline.</p>
<p>Victorian Energy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-news-storms-bring-down-powerlines-and-rip-apart-backyards-in-victoria/3cdd39ee-9648-4c53-80f0-14f9043539e1">described</a> the blackout as “one of the largest outage events in the state’s history”. </p>
<p>The event has prompted questions about the reliability of the state’s electricity grid. But it’s important to note these extreme winds would have seriously disrupted any power system. It has little to do with the mix of renewable energy and conventional fossil fuels. </p>
<p>As climate change worsens, we have much work ahead to ensure our electricity grids cope with severe weather events. But in this case, the fact that a complete system blackout was avoided is testament to the resilience of the system.</p>
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<h2>A day of wild weather</h2>
<p>An extreme storm, including strong winds and lightning, tore through Victoria on Tuesday afternoon. It caused two transmission lines near Geelong to collapse, prompting several generators to disconnect from the grid and cutting power to parts of the network.</p>
<p>Other customers lost power after the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) ordered “load shedding”. This involves temporarily cutting off electricity supply to some customers to keep the network stable and prevent damage.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/power-system-event-in-victoria">a statement from AEMO</a>, the storm also damaged hundreds of powerlines and power poles and restoring electricity to all customers “may take days if not weeks”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<h2>What happened at Loy Yang A?</h2>
<p>The disruption to electricity transmission caused AGL’s Loy Yang A generator to go offline. This was an automatic response known as a “fault ride-through” mechanism. It’s much like a fuse blowing if you have a short-circuit at home.</p>
<p>When large electricity loads are rapidly and unexpectedly removed from the system, electricity supply and demand are no longer matched. It’s a dangerous situation and means electricity generators can be badly damaged or even destroyed if they don’t disconnect from the network.</p>
<p>It appears that Loy Yang A was the first generator to disconnect. The effect was to reduce supply and help bring the system back into balance, preventing a system-wide outage. </p>
<p>All generators have protection systems that stop them from being damaged in these kinds of events. Loy Yang A tripped up to protect itself from permanent damage and in doing so actually kept the system stable. It did what the system is designed to do.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal fired power station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The disruption to electricity transmission caused AGL’s Loy Yang A generator to go offline.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What part did renewables and coal play?</h2>
<p>When transmission lines fail, the whole system is affected. This includes all types of generators – wind, solar, gas, hydro and coal. The power outages on Tuesday were unrelated to the proportion of renewables and fossil fuels in the energy mix.</p>
<p>It’s possible that old coal power generators are more sensitive to transmission disruptions than newer technologies. But it’s far too early to say whether this had anything to do with Tuesday’s event.</p>
<p>Battery storage may have helped steady the grid. Batteries have ultra-rapid responses to these kinds of disuptions and can add or subtract power from the grid within milliseconds to keep the grid stable.</p>
<p>And looking ahead, one benefit of renewable energy systems is that they tend to be much more widely “distributed” geographically than coal generators. So when power lines go out, having a more distributed network actually provides more resilience.</p>
<h2>Lessons from South Australia</h2>
<p>In September 2016, wind storms in South Australia also blew over transmission lines. Cascading disconnections by generators meant the entire grid went black in a matter of seconds, causing a <a href="https://www.energyfactsaustralia.org.au/explainers/blackouts-explained/">statewide outage</a>. </p>
<p>It will take months to analyse all the data from the Victorian blackout. But it may well show that the lessons learned from SA blackout saved the Victorian grid.</p>
<p>For example, AEMO was <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemos-defence-of-we-didnt-know-underscores-case-for-change-39205/">reportedly unaware</a> about the exact settings of “fault ride-through” mechanisms on wind farms before the SA blackouts. This has since changed, and may have helped minimise the impacts in Victoria.</p>
<h2>A warmer future</h2>
<p>We know more severe weather events are predicted under climate change. It will manifest in many different ways: strong wind events, heatwaves, bushfires and floods.</p>
<p>All infrastructure, but especially energy infrastructure, is vulnerable under these conditions. It means all of us – researchers, the market operators, and generator operators – must work hard to make energy systems more resilient as we move into an uncertain future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville receives funding from the RACE for 2030 CRC and the Woodside Monash Energy Partnership.
</span></em></p>The event has prompted questions about the reliability of the state’s electricity grid. But it’s important to note these extreme winds would have seriously disrupted any power system.Roger Dargaville, Director Monash Energy Institute, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200502024-01-08T19:17:52Z2024-01-08T19:17:52ZAs Australia’s net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need<p>Australia is not rolling out clean energy projects nearly fast enough to reach the Australian government’s target of 82% renewable electricity by 2030. A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-06/australia-likely-to-fall-short-of-82pc-renewable-energy-target/102689392">huge build</a> of solar and wind farms, transmission lines and big batteries is needed. But progress is challenged by the scale required, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">community resistance to new infrastructure</a> and connecting all that new renewable electricity to the grid.</p>
<p>In the latest obstacle to expanding renewable energy capacity in the longer term, federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/plibersek-delivers-massive-blow-to-victorian-wind-hub-20240108-p5evqq">knocked back</a> a plan by the Victorian government to build a sea terminal to service offshore wind farms, saying it posed “clearly unacceptable” environmental risks.</p>
<p>The roadblocks facing large projects present an opportunity to ramp up the contribution of small-scale technologies in the energy transition. Recently, federal and state energy ministers agreed on the need for <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/energy-ministers-identify-key-areas-to-reinvigorate-australias-energy-transformation">a national roadmap</a> and a co-ordinated approach to integrating into the grid what they call <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/ministers-put-consumer-energy-on-agenda-is-this-a-turning-point-or-groundhog-day/amp/">“consumer energy resources”</a> (CER), which include batteries, electric vehicles and rooftop solar.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>More than <a href="https://apvi.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/National-Survey-Report-of-PV-Power-Applications-in-AUSTRALIA-2022.pdf">one in three</a> Australian houses have solar panels on their roofs. Australia <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/how-rooftop-solar-panels-transformed-energy-in-australia/102987100">leads the world</a> in rooftop solar per head. During the past year these systems generated <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2023-04/apo-nid322455.pdf">close to 10%</a> of our electricity. Several times over the past few months, they even provided enough electricity to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-meets-all-of-south-australia-demand-in-major-new-milestone/">briefly meet all</a> South Australia’s electricity demand.</p>
<p>And the technology still has great potential to grow: although installed capacity has doubled in the last four years, these systems cover only about 10% of <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/insights/market-reports/how-much-rooftop-solar-can-be-installed-in-australia/">Australia’s estimated usable roof area</a>. So, how large a share of our electricity needs might rooftop solar provide? The answers are not simple.</p>
<h2>Why rooftop solar presents a challenge for the grid</h2>
<p>In electricity systems, demand and supply must be balanced at all times. The <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> (AEMO) runs the grid and keeps it secure to avoid blackouts in case of unexpected events such as the sudden disconnection of a transmission line. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>To meet demand, every five minutes AEMO dispatches electricity from large-scale generators such as coal-fired power stations or large solar farms. As the grid operator, AEMO must also procure reserve capacity to balance any differences in demand and maintain security.</p>
<p>But AEMO does not dispatch power from rooftop solar, which is either used on site, or flows into the grid independently of AEMO’s control. This isn’t usually a problem, since AEMO keeps the grid balanced by forecasting how much rooftop solar is being generated.</p>
<p>However, if rooftop solar generates the majority of power in a particular region, there may not be enough dispatchable generation and reserves online to keep the grid balanced and secure. Grid security can also be challenged when <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/initiatives/major-programs/nem-distributed-energy-resources-der-program/operations/der-behaviour-during-disturbances">unexpected events</a> trigger the safety settings of rooftop solar systems and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114283">cause them to disconnect</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<p>The other big issue for grid balance is that the network businesses that manage the poles, wires and other infrastructure connecting generators to homes and businesses need to ensure that voltages remain <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341931377_Voltage_Analysis_of_the_LV_Distribution_Network_in_the_Australian_National_Electricity_Market_Available_at_httpsprod-energycouncilenergyslicedtechcomaulv-voltage-report">within defined technical limits</a> to avoid damaging equipment or appliances. When solar generates a lot of power at a time of low electricity demand, voltage can exceed the upper operational limit. Voltage can also go below the lower operational limit when too many people connect big appliances like air-conditioners. </p>
<p>So how are we managing the three challenges of rooftop solar: lack of controllability by the market operator, uncertain behaviour during unexpected grid events and impact on network voltage?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-growth-or-degrowth-what-is-the-right-way-to-tackle-climate-change-218239">Green growth or degrowth: what is the right way to tackle climate change?</a>
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<h2>Ways to manage and expand rooftop solar</h2>
<p>Current Australian standards require solar to automatically disconnect when voltage gets too high. Network businesses also pre-emptively manage this problem by preventing customers in areas where voltage is an issue from connecting solar to the grid, or by limiting the size of solar systems they can connect or the amount of electricity they can export to the grid at any time. But this approach is potentially unfair to those customers who can’t connect or export.</p>
<p>The good news is that standards introduced in 2020 provide more sophisticated ways of managing solar through <a href="https://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/CANVAS-Succinct-Final-Report_11.11.21.pdf">more gradual voltage response</a>, and by requiring systems to ride through major disturbances rather than disconnecting. Some networks have also developed <a href="https://www.sapowernetworks.com.au/your-power/smarter-energy/flexible-exports/fixed-v-flexible/">solar-friendly ways</a> to cut off surplus output “dynamically”, meaning only at times when they have to.</p>
<p>Thanks to these measures, solar customers face less constraint on exporting power to the grid. However, since solar sometimes now supplies most of the generation in South Australia, AEMO has also <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/learn/fact-sheets/pv-rooftop-solar-consumer-fact-sheet.pdf">tested disconnection of solar</a> to increase its control of the grid in case of threats to system security.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<p>Some of these solar management tools are still quite blunt and <a href="https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/solar-switch-off-how-aemo-took-control-of-rooftop-pv-and-why-it-didnt-need-to/">some commentators</a> worry they will be overused. While necessary in the short-term, if unchecked they will reduce our ability to realise our rooftop solar potential.</p>
<h2>Getting smarter about when we use power</h2>
<p>There is another way to use our solar systems more effectively: we can shift energy use to times when the sun is shining, and store energy – in batteries, electric vehicles and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/electric-hot-water-is-a-hero-of-flexible-demand-where-does-it-stand-in-the-age-of-rooftop-solar/">hot water tanks</a> – <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/saturation-der-modelling-shows-distributed-energy-and-storage-could-lower-costs-all">to use when it is not</a>.</p>
<p>To make such a change, consumer electricity prices are a potential lever. Solar customers already have an incentive to use electricity from their own rooftop systems, because they pay more for grid electricity than they are paid to sell solar back to the grid.</p>
<p>South Australia and some other network areas <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/Ausgrid%20-%20Att.%208.1%20-%20Tariff%20Structure%20Statement%20compliance%20paper%20%20-%2031%20Jan%202023%20-%20Public.pdf">are introducing</a> low “solar soak” rates to encourage all customers to use electricity in high solar times, such as the middle of the day. Times of plentiful solar also tend to be the <a href="https://opennem.org.au/">cheapest times to buy wholesale electricity from the grid</a>, and innovative retailers like <a href="https://www.amber.com.au/">Amber Electric</a> are passing through these price signals to customers.</p>
<p>However, typical retail plans offered to customers don’t provide much incentive to change patterns of electricity use, especially since many customers are understandably not focused on their electricity bills or <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368464625_Engaging_households_in_electricity_flexibility_-_insights_from_the_UK">cannot easily shift</a> their power use.</p>
<p>In these cases orchestration schemes, often called “virtual power plants,” are an option. Under the schemes, a business will <a href="https://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/publication/rewarding-residential-electricity-flexibility-customer-friendly-cost-reflective-tariffs">reward household customers</a> that allow it to operate their rooftop solar, batteries, appliances, electric vehicles and hot water systems in ways that reduce costs or grid impacts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Better management of electricity use through these schemes can make room for the grid to take on more solar.</p>
<p>Recent trials in Western Australia (<a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/announcements/project-symphony-paving-the-way-our-brighter-energy-future">Project Symphony</a>) and Victoria (<a href="https://aemo.com.au/initiatives/major-programs/nem-distributed-energy-resources-der-program/der-demonstrations/project-edge/project-edge-reports">Project EDGE</a>) prove orchestration can work. Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629621003030?via%3Dihub">people will need good reasons</a> to hand over control of their solar, batteries and appliances, particularly if they bought expensive equipment such as batteries <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003018?via%3Dihub">for back-up power or to increase their energy independence</a>.</p>
<p>It would be a major setback to the net zero transition if AEMO and network businesses, lacking better options for managing the grid, continue to cut back and switch off solar systems until people find it unattractive to purchase them.</p>
<p>The new <a href="https://switchedon.reneweconomy.com.au/content/finally-a-national-roadmap-for-decarbonising-homes-and-communities">CER roadmap</a> needs to provide clear guidance on how AEMO and network businesses can manage rooftop solar, and other technologies such as batteries and EVs. Good governance arrangements and meaningful stakeholder consultation are essential if Australia is to maintain the momentum of its people-powered energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Bruce receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Race for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water. She is a member of the Executive Committee of the Australian PV Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Baran Yildiz receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Australia. Baran is a member of International Energy Agency (IEA) Solar Heating & Cooling Programme Task 69.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Alexander receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre. Dani previously was the Business Program Leader for the RACE for 2030 CRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Roberts receives funding from the Race for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre, the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water, and Essential Energy. He is a former director of the Australian PV Institute.</span></em></p>Australia leads the world in rooftop solar per head. Can this small-scale power source be the secret weapon to fire up our struggling transition to net zero?Anna Bruce, Associate Professor in the Collaboration on Energy and Environmental Markets and the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyBaran Yildiz, Senior Research Associate, UNSW SydneyDani Alexander, CEO, UNSW Energy Institute, UNSW SydneyMike Roberts, Senior Research Fellow in the Collaboration on Energy and Environmental Markets and the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2179102023-12-21T03:53:20Z2023-12-21T03:53:20ZIf you’ve got solar, can you run aircon without worrying about cost? Not quite<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567009/original/file-20231221-19-4mvxso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C3600%2C2376&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-panels-installed-on-roof-south-513272902">myphotobank.com.au/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You’re inside on a scorching 40°C day, running your air conditioner on full for extended hours. Normally, you might worry about cost – or even the impact on the grid or the environment. But you’ve got solar on your roof, so you should be producing plenty of power to offset your aircon. </p>
<p>This line of thinking is common. Is it correct? Not quite. While it’s true that solar on your roof usually performs well over summer, there is an issue here for you and the grid. </p>
<p>Your solar performs at its best when the sun is high. But the hottest part of the day is actually in the late afternoon. As heat builds up and up, you often need cooling late into the evening even as output from your solar array starts to drop. </p>
<p>That’s not to say solar isn’t worth it – it will cut your cooling bill substantially. Here’s what this phenomenon means for you – and for the grid. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="sydney rooftops from sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567012/original/file-20231221-25-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar and aircon can work well together – but it’s not a silver bullet to avoid energy bills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-june-03-2023-urban-2312149419">HDC Creative/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hot and hotter</h2>
<p>Australia has heated up by <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate">1.47°C since 1910</a>. Globally, this year is <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-september-we-went-past-1-5-degrees-in-november-we-tipped-over-2-degrees-for-the-first-time-whats-going-on-218228">breaking all records</a>, with temperatures briefly passing 2°C above the pre-industrial period. </p>
<p>Heatwaves have already started and we’re likely to see many more in Australia this summer. A heatwave is three or more days when daytime and night-time temperatures are unusually high. They’re often worse in cities, where black surfaces such as roads and roofs trap heat, and as air conditioners dump heat out to the outside air. This, in turn, means more demand for electricity to cool houses. Australia’s energy market operator forecasts electricity demand will hit a <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-prepared-for-a-possible-challenging-summer">one in ten-year high</a> this summer.</p>
<p>As electricity prices rise, many of us have responded by going solar. One in three Australian households – 3.6 million homes – now generate electricity domestically. In South Australia the proportion is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/01/how-generous-subsidies-helped-australia-to-become-a-leader-in-solar-power">nearly 50%</a>. </p>
<p>As Australia gets hotter, aircon use will drive more electricity demand in all mainland cities. We estimate the extra demand for cooling will drive up demand in Sydney and Brisbane <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Saman_2013_Adapting_households_to_heat_waves.pdf">20% and 49% respectively</a> by 2050.</p>
<p>Heat – especially sustained heat – is dangerous. During the last northern summer, North America, Europe and China experienced record heatwaves. Deaths linked to this year’s heatwaves reached <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/world/deadly-europe-heatwave-2022-climate/index.html#:%7E:text=Nearly%2062%2C000%20people%20died%20heat,victims%20are%20vastly%20under%2Dcounted.">62,000 in Europe</a>. </p>
<p>Staying cool is a health issue. We do not want to advise people to turn off their aircon when they need it most – especially for people with health concerns or older people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman turning aircon on" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567010/original/file-20231221-21-fp0wci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Staying cool matters for your health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-image-old-woman-hand-switch-1789036142">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Solar and heatwaves</h2>
<p>During hot periods, residential demand accounts for <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Saman_2013_Adapting_households_to_heat_waves.pdf">50% or more</a> of the peak demand in many parts of Australia. Before the age of solar, peak power demand in South Australia more than doubled during a heatwave and the peak demand on the grid occurred <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/b12c7097-dafc-4f86-bdfb-14907200666d/SA-Department-for-Transport-Energy-and-Infrastructure.PDF">close to midday</a>. </p>
<p>Now that solar is common, this midday peak has been cancelled out. But we now must cope with a smaller late-evening peak during heat events, as the sun sets but the air is still hot. </p>
<p>When we drill down to individual homes, we can clearly see domestic air conditioning is the <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Saman_2013_Adapting_households_to_heat_waves.pdf">major driver</a> behind peak power demand.</p>
<p>Our research in homes shows air conditioning accounts for 72% (Adelaide) and 90% (Brisbane) of household electricity usage during peak times. This is true even of low-energy use houses. When we <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270053187_Electricity_Demand_Profile_of_Australian_Low_Energy_Houses">monitored 60 low energy homes</a> in Adelaide’s Lochiel Park Green Village over a year, we found that while these homes used considerably less electricity overall, aircon was still a major draw. </p>
<p>The longer the heatwave, the higher the peak electricity demand. This is likely due to buildings struggling to shed excess heat overnight and households becoming less tolerant of the conditions. As heatwaves go on, the demand for power overnight gradually increases.</p>
<p>Most Australian homes have lower energy-efficiency ratings than these homes, and will need more electricity for cooling. But the average rooftop solar array in Australia is around 6 kilowatts, while the average for new solar is now <a href="https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/rooftop-solar-system-sizes-hit-record-high-with-10kw-shaping-up-as-new-norm/">almost 10kW</a>. These larger arrays will cope with higher air conditioning demand during the day, but will not tackle the night peak. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-homes-cooler-without-cranking-up-the-air-conditioning-207243">How to make homes cooler without cranking up the air conditioning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can you do to cut aircon bills?</h2>
<p>Choosing the right size air conditioner for your space with a high energy efficiency (6 star rating) is essential at the outset. If your aircon is more than ten years old, replacing it by a more efficient one will save money.</p>
<p>If you already have aircon, you can reduce its thirst for power. We know well-insulated houses with light-coloured roofs are more resistant to heatwaves, are more thermally comfortable to live in, and need less air conditioning. </p>
<p>If you’re renting, you have limited ability to control these factors. One option to weather heatwaves without huge energy bills is to create a “cool retreat” – cooling one room rather than the whole house. </p>
<p>You can also cut energy bills and emissions by:</p>
<ul>
<li>turning the air conditioner on earlier in the day while the sun is shining</li>
<li>setting it to a slightly higher temperature<br></li>
<li>using external blinds or shutters to reduce direct sun heat from windows</li>
<li>reducing other electricity use in late afternoon and evenings.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>At grid scale, the ever-growing number of residential arrays and grid-scale solar farms with batteries will help reduce the risk of blackouts this summer. </p>
<p>Home batteries can store excess electricity from solar for use in the evening peak. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_battery">Thermal batteries</a> are an emerging technology which store heat or cold for later use. When <a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">vehicle-to-grid technology</a> gets cheaper and more widely used, you will be able to use your electric car as a much larger home battery and use your own stored solar when the sun is not shining, rather than paying top dollar for grid power.</p>
<p><em>Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank many colleagues, particularly Stephen Berry and David Whaley for contributing to the research behind this article.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-maximise-savings-from-your-home-solar-system-and-slash-your-power-bills-197415">How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wasim Saman has received multiple federal and state research grants from the Australian Research Council, government departments, the CRC for Low Carbon Living and several industry partners for research into low carbon housing. He is a director of Isothermix Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>With a record hot summer expected, will rooftop solar cover our need to be cool?Wasim Saman, Emeritus Professor of Sustainable Energy Engineering, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197142023-12-14T19:20:15Z2023-12-14T19:20:15ZCoal will be all but gone by 2034 under Australia’s latest energy roadmap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565676/original/file-20231214-23-cdm29g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C998%2C652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s coal power stations will all close in 2038 – five years earlier than previously expected – and variable renewable energy capacity will need to triple by 2030 and increase sevenfold by 2050. </p>
<p>These are two key findings in the latest roadmap for Australia’s largest grid and electricity market, the National Electricity Market. The draft of a document known as <a href="https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp">2024 Integrated System Plan</a>, was released today by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). It lays out a comprehensive path for the next 20 years as we wean ourselves off coal and embrace renewables firmed by storage. </p>
<h2>What is this plan and why does it matter?</h2>
<p>AEMO ensures our energy market runs smoothly, including planning for the transmission needs of the future – and that’s where this blueprint comes in. </p>
<p>Australia’s main grid has historically been based on connecting cheap but polluting coal plants to large cities. As coal plants retire, we need a different grid, drawing renewable power from many different locations, while utilising storage. </p>
<p>Every two years, AEMO releases an updated plan, drawing on detailed modelling and consultation across the energy sector. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591">The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Through this process, it arrives at an “optimal development path”. That’s energy-speak for the cheapest and most effective mix of electricity generation, storage and transmission able to meet our reliability and security needs while also supporting government emissions reduction policies in the long-term interests of consumers. </p>
<p>Changes to <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/aemc-applies-new-emissions-reduction-objective">our national electricity laws</a> to include emissions reductions in its objectives came into effect in November. In response, AEMO is now only using scenarios in line with Australian Governments’ emission reduction targets.</p>
<p>The path laid out in this latest plan is intended to ensure the energy transition already underway will be lower cost, resilient and pragmatic. Importantly, the plan points to where we will need to build important new infrastructure – especially transmission lines – to deliver the new electricity system. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map showing renewable projects and transmission lines Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565675/original/file-20231214-27-338v8m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This map shows current and future renewable projects, energy storage and transmission lines needed to green Australia’s main grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AEMO</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does the update say?</h2>
<p>The 2024 plan explores three possible scenarios:</p>
<ol>
<li>Step Change, which meets Australia’s emission cut commitments in a growing economy</li>
<li>Progressive Change, reflecting slower economic growth and energy investment</li>
<li>Green Energy Exports, framed around very strong industrial decarbonisation and surging low-emission energy exports.</li>
</ol>
<p>The report suggests the step change scenario is the most likely of these three, closely followed by progressive change.</p>
<p>So what would we see under the step change scenario? </p>
<p>Change – and plenty of it. This scenario forecasts the retirement of 90% of Australia’s remaining 21 gigawatts of coal generation by 2034-35, with the entire fleet retired by 2038. This timeframe is five years earlier than envisaged in the 2022 integrated system plan. </p>
<p>AEMO notes the departure of coal from the grid could be faster still, pointing to higher operating costs, reduced fuel security and high maintenance costs as well as more competition from renewable energy in the wholesale market.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="shuttered coal plant in Victoria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565674/original/file-20231214-17-rhqkfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All of Australia’s coal stations will shut by 2038, under the latest market operator projections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dorothy Chiron/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To manage the farewell to coal alongside increased electricity demand from population growth and electrification of transport, we will need to add about 6 GW of grid-scale renewable capacity every year in the coming decade. That sounds like a lot, but we’re currently rolling out almost 4 GW a year. The plan also predicts a major increase in rooftop solar – 18 GW more than in the previous plan. </p>
<p>AEMO’s 2024 plan suggests close to 10,000km of new transmission lines will be needed to deliver this least-cost system by 2050. There is slightly less transmission here compared to the previous plan, due to higher transmission costs, and more power from sources requiring less transmission. Since the last plan, some minor transmission projects have been built, but the timelines for most larger projects have been pushed back. </p>
<p>These delays are partly due to community opposition to new transmission lines. AEMO has now explicitly flagged social license as a key challenge to delivering the new energy system. </p>
<h2>Firming and gas</h2>
<p>The 2024 plan calls for a quadrupling of the grid’s firming capacity, which smooths out peaks and dips in renewable generation and reduces the chance of energy shortages for consumers. </p>
<p>This will come from grid-scale batteries, pumped hydro, coordinated consumer batteries used as virtual power plants – and, perhaps controversially, gas-powered generation.</p>
<p>Under the plan, there will be 50 GW (and 654GWh) of dispatchable storage, as well as 16 GW of flexible gas. </p>
<p>That’s a significant boost to gas capacity, which was projected to be just over 9GW of gas capacity under the last plan.</p>
<p>Why do we need this capacity? AEMO pictures these gas plants not as day-in, day-out generators, but as a infrequently used backup to ensure the grid stays reliable and secure. </p>
<p>So this increase in gas power capacity doesn’t actually mean a increase in gas generation, or the amount of gas burnt. In fact, AEMO projects a significant decline in gas power over the short to medium term.</p>
<p>But from 2033, as the last coal is burned in our coal plants, AEMO does expect an increase in gas generation. This may be fossil gas, but some may be hydrogen or biomass-derived gas.</p>
<p>Shifting from regular use to infrequent use as a backup will pose challenges for the existing fossil gas network, AEMO points out. </p>
<p>Does this threaten the clean energy transition? No. If we can banish almost all fossil fuel generation from our main grid by 2034, we will be doing well. Even if this were all fossil gas – which it won’t be – the emissions intensity of Australia’s main grid would be miniscule – around 0.01 tonnes per MWh, or 60 times lower <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Infohub/Markets/Pages/qcmr/december-quarter-2022/Emissions-Reduction.aspx#:%7E:text=The%20emissions%20reduction%20estimate%20for,e%20per%20MWh%20in%202021.">than today</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219714/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell's current position is supported by the 'Race for 2030' Cooperative Research Centre.</span></em></p>Every two years, we get an updated plan for the future of Australia’s main grid. Under the new plan, coal vanishes even faster.Dylan McConnell, Senior Research Associate, Renewable Energy & Energy Systems Analyst, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184272023-11-23T08:13:24Z2023-11-23T08:13:24ZThe government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here’s why that’s a good idea<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/delivering-more-reliable-energy-all-australians">today announced</a> a scheme to underwrite the risk of investing in new renewable energy generation and storage. </p>
<p>The expansion of the national <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a> follows <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-capacity-investment-scheme-supports-nsw-deliver-1gw-cleaner-cheaper-more-reliable-energy-nsw">a successful pilot study with New South Wales</a>. The government paid A$1.8 billion for just over a gigawatt of capacity, through a combination of batteries and other storage. </p>
<p>Bowen says the scheme “underwrites new renewable generation and storage, providing certainty for renewable investors and cheaper, cleaner energy for households and businesses”. And if all goes well, the scheme will provide a financial return to taxpayers. </p>
<p>Most of the country still relies on dirty coal-fired power. Several power stations have <a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-liddell-what-to-expect-when-australias-oldest-coal-plant-closes-203548">already closed</a> and many more have flagged intentions to close. The ageing fleet is also unreliable, causing power outages. Before coal exits the system, we need to replace it. This scheme will ensure that happens well in advance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s the problem?</h2>
<p>The government was not on track to achieve 82% renewables by 2030. It was clearly under pressure to do something about that. And now it has. </p>
<p>If what’s been announced today actually is built, then it’s likely we will be able to hit the target. The amount of new capacity being considered will certainly make a huge difference. So that’s 23 gigawatts of new variable renewables such as wind and solar, plus 9GW of “dispatchable” capacity, which involves storage – mainly batteries.</p>
<p>If the scheme does its job, it’s also likely to accelerate the closure of coal-fired power stations. </p>
<p>That will help us to reduce emissions but it also raises the risk of blackouts from grid instability. That’s a worry as we head into a long, hot summer. </p>
<p>We need to close the gap between closure of coal-fired power and new generators coming online to firm up the system. </p>
<p>Today’s announcement takes us to a total of 32GW nationally. Compare that to the total generation capacity of the National Electricity Market <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/national-electricity-market-fact-sheet.pdf">at about 65GW</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>How does the Capacity Investment Scheme help?</h2>
<p>Under the original scheme, the federal government has begun to run competitive tenders seeking bids for clean renewable generation projects.</p>
<p>Under the expanded scheme, successful projects will be offered contracts in which a revenue floor and ceiling are agreed with the Commonwealth.</p>
<p>This scheme will be rolled out with regular six-monthly tenders from the second quarter of the 2024–25 financial year through to 2027.</p>
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<span class="caption">If revenue earned by a project exceeds the net revenue ceiling, the owner pays the Commonwealth an agreed percentage of revenue above revenue ceiling. The Commonwealth would pay the project when revenue is below the revenue floor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span>
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<p>In principle, it’s a good idea for two reasons. First, it provides a much greater level of certainty for investors. Difficulty getting people to invest in the renewable energy sector is one of the reasons why we’re not on track. In this case the government will be paying directly, holding auctions to guarantee a certain revenue for those who invest in these projects. In other policy instruments it’s really the consumer who ends up paying. </p>
<p>The way it’s done, through “contract the difference”, is pretty sensible, in that the government is only underwriting the risk, rather than the full amount of money. If the revenue the project actually generates in the market is within the agreed range, the government doesn’t pay anything. </p>
<p>But if the people who invested are not getting the agreed amount of financial return, the government will pay the difference. Or most of the difference anyway, through a formula yet to be worked out – but the government will certainly be contributing towards that difference. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it’s not a one-sided arrangement. If the project generates more revenue than the agreed ceiling, that money goes back to the government. So the government’s not signing up to an open chequebook. </p>
<p>Second, this approach puts all the responsibility for reliability of the grid in the hands of the states. That is, dealing with the closure of the coal plants and making sure there’s enough capacity to replace it.</p>
<p>That’s probably a good idea, because some of the states have different views about how reliability should be addressed. Some would not want to see any gas-fired generation being used to back up renewables; others may be happy to have gas-fired power or even a hydrogen power station to back up reliability. It will be up to them now. </p>
<p>Alongside these steps federal and state governments still need to step up the pressure on building transmission lines to connect all of this new renewable capacity to the grid. However, today’s announcement does nothing to address how this will be done. </p>
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<h2>What will this do to power prices?</h2>
<p>I don’t expect it to make much difference to prices. While new renewables themselves are cheap, the transmission and storage needed to back them up will not be. So they’ll probably largely balance each other out. </p>
<p>The bottom line is we will be getting a more reliable and lower-emissions electricity sector at a relatively low carbon cost. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>The Australian Labor government’s expanded Capacity Investment Scheme gives us a better chance of hitting high renewable energy targets. It’s not without risk but well worth the rewards.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168912023-11-02T19:14:00Z2023-11-02T19:14:00ZIs nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?<p>In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”.</p>
<p>Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>?</p>
<p>For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion.</p>
<p>Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2>
<p>There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. </p>
<p>Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades.</p>
<p>By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains.</p>
<p>In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices.</p>
<h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high.</p>
<p>But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear.</p>
<p>The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour.</p>
<p>In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear.</p>
<h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2>
<p>Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law.</p>
<p>Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards.</p>
<p>In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete.</p>
<p>Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2>
<p>Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. </p>
<p>A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world.</p>
<p>Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal?">economically insane</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reuben Finighan is a research fellow at the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>When Australia’s government and opposition argue over how to get to net zero emissions, nuclear power is the flashpoint. The argument against nuclear is stronger, but not for the obvious reason.Reuben Finighan, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138792023-10-18T19:05:56Z2023-10-18T19:05:56ZThe original and still the best: why it’s time to renew Australia’s renewable energy policy<p>If Australia is to meet its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=In%20June%202022%20Australia%20updated,emissions%20budget%20from%202021%2D2030.">commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, we need to cut emissions faster. Even if all current government policy commitments are achieved – an unlikely outcome given delays in implementation – emissions are still <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=Under%20a%20'with%20additional%20measures,below%202005%20levels%20by%202035.">projected to be only 40% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>Last year the federal government announced that <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=But%20then%20in%20December%202022,renewable%20electricity%20target%20by%202030%E2%80%9D.">82% of all electricity production</a> would come from renewable energy by 2030. This was a crucial step. To have any chance of hitting our overall emission reduction targets, we must speed up the rollout of renewable energy. </p>
<p>Several experts, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Tony Wood at the Grattan Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/clean-energy-council-releases-power-playbook">Clean Energy Council</a> are calling on governments to consider using the Renewable Energy Target (RET) to accelerate investment in new renewable supply. Why are these experts recommending the RET as a policy option?</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>A brief history of renewable energy in Australia</h2>
<p>At the turn of the century Australia had almost no wind or solar energy generation. In 2001, the Howard government recognised the potential benefits of renewables and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/august/ret-review#:%7E:text=The%20RET%20was%20originally%20introduced,on%20top%20of%20existing%20generation.">introduced the RET</a>. The target, which was expanded and reformed by the Rudd and Abbott governments, has two elements:</p>
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<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target">Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target</a>, which requires retailers to buy a set percentage (currently about 15%) of their energy from renewable producers through the purchase of a Large-Scale Generation Certificate</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Small-scale-Renewable-Energy-Scheme">Small-Scale Renewable Energy Scheme</a>, which provides an upfront subsidy to households and small businesses that install their own rooftop solar panels. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Over the past two decades, the RET has been by far the most effective of all Australia’s climate initiatives. It has led to an additional 40 gigawatts (the capacity of around <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2023/april/agls-liddell-power-station-closes-after-52-years-of-operation">20 Liddell power stations</a>) of new solar and wind generation. It has lifted Australia’s renewable generation from almost nothing other than hydro (from Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro) in 2000 to nearly <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=all&interval=1y&view=discrete-time">37% of all electricity today</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Between 2011 and 2021, the RET accounted for more than half of Australia’s greenhouse gas abatement, delivering by 2021 40 million metric tonnes (Mt) out of about 75 Mt. Over a decade that’s the equivalent of retiring two very large coal-fired power stations each year (see chart below). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Clean Energy Regulator</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The RET succeeded for two reasons. First, its targets extend all the way through to 2030, creating certainty for investors. Second, it created a market that encourages retailers to purchase the lowest-cost large-scale generation certificates. In purchasing a certificate, the retailer pays the difference between the cost of a project and what its generated power earns on the market. </p>
<p>That approach has diversified our renewable energy mix by making it easier to compare different technologies. For example, a wind farm might cost more to build than a solar farm but it can potentially earn more on the market by generating at the right time of day or night. A greater diversity of renewable energy sources means more reliable generation. </p>
<h2>Why has the boom in renewables investment stalled?</h2>
<p>The bad news is that while investment in <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/australian-rooftop-solar-breaks-new-ground-in-2022-clean-energy-australia-report">small-scale solar photovoltaic continues to grow</a>, investment in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/worldtoday/renewable-energy-investment-stalls/102765622">large-scale renewables has largely stalled</a>. There are two main reasons why. </p>
<p>First, Australia must build more transmission infrastructure. We have great renewable energy resources but we need new transmission lines to take that energy to homes and businesses. Governments have recognised this and are prioritising new <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/2022-documents/a3-renewable-energy-zones.pdf?la=en">Renewable Energy Zones</a>, with the Commonwealth providing substantial funding through its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/rewiring-the-nation">Rewiring the Nation</a> package.</p>
<p>But the second reason for the stalled investment is less well known. The
<a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target#:%7E:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20amendment,post%2D2020%20targets%20adjusted%20accordingly.">target of 33 terrawatt hours</a> under the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20Australia%20met%20its,terawatt%2Dhours%20(TWh).&text=With%20the%202020%20targets%20being,Victoria%20and%20the%20Northern%20Territory.">largely achieved in 2020</a> and since then has not been increased. The current legislated target is about 15%, well below the government’s commitment to reach 82% by 2030. Why did governments pivot away from the successful RET policy?</p>
<p>In the late 2010s, the Commonwealth government was not interested in increasing renewable energy targets. So state governments keen to act on climate change moved away from using the RET and other market-based policies, instead creating their own policy frameworks, known as <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/industry/long-term-energy-service-agreements">Contracts-for-Difference</a>.</p>
<p>Under these frameworks, state governments hold reverse auctions and award solar and wind projects a contract for a guaranteed price for their energy for 15–20 years. </p>
<p>Government contracts-for-difference can be a useful tool to assist new technologies, such as offshore wind, to enter the market. But they have <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1901.html">significant limitations</a> when they are used to deploy mature technologies such as solar and wind. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The most obvious problem is that, in contrast to a market framework such as the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target, under contracts-for-difference the government becomes the only market for renewable energy. The government assumes the risk of any project, freeing operators from the need to efficiently locate and run their projects. If a project fails, the public pays the cost in higher power prices or taxes. </p>
<p>Moreover, when government is buying the power, it naturally often goes for the cheapest option, thereby usually favouring solar and narrowing our renewable energy mix. And a generator has no incentive to sell its electricity to households and businesses. The result is that investors hold off building new projects, waiting instead to be awarded a contract-for-difference. </p>
<p>This dynamic is stalling investment even as coal generators near the end of their useful lives and the market demand for both energy and firming capacity grows. </p>
<h2>Governments working together to get investment flowing</h2>
<p>But there is reason to be optimistic. The states and the Commonwealth all now agree on the need to rapidly decarbonise the electricity sector by deploying renewables, transmission and storage. Now the states have the opportunity to work with the Commonwealth to incorporate their different frameworks into a nationally consistent, market-based approach built on the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target. </p>
<p>The simplest approach, which would create a pivot back to market-based frameworks, would be to legislate to increase that target each year to achieve a linear growth from current renewable energy levels to 82% in 2030. </p>
<p>Under that solution, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421521005139">history suggests</a> investors would rush to capture their share of the target. Investors and energy retailers would work together to find the right mix of technologies to deliver the lowest-cost power to consumers.</p>
<p>A national 82% renewable energy target also ensures that as other <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/sectoral-decarbonisation-plans-a-welcome-priority-for-australias-government/">sectors use electrification</a> to decarbonise, they will have access to clean energy. Without a target, electrification may lead to use of high-emissions coal power. </p>
<p>Under our proposal, state governments could still pursue their own objectives, such as supporting projects in a particular region, but they could <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12457">align their policy frameworks with the RET</a> by funding the cost of Large-Scale Generation Certificates rather than entire renewable energy projects.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If the electricity sector does not reach 82% by 2030, other sectors will have to do more to deliver our legislated 43% reduction in emissions by 2030. This is likely to be more costly and unnecessarily increase pressure on our trade-exposed industries, which would be required to reduce emissions more quickly at higher cost.</p>
<p>No Australian emission reduction policy matches the success of the Renewable Energy Target. By working together and aligning their renewable energy policies with the target, Commonwealth and state governments can get Australia’s renewable energy investment back on track, providing us with a reliable, competitive and clean electricity system by 2030 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, which develops renewable projects and batteries. He is also a Climate Councillor.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore an Associate Professor at Griffith University and is the General Manager Policy and Regional Energy at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tahlia Nolan is the Commercial Manager Hydrogen at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries. </span></em></p>Of all Australia’s climate policies, the Renewable Energy Target has been the most effective. Why have Australian governments moved away from it, and how can they revive it?Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityJoel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityTahlia Nolan, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130792023-10-11T19:05:06Z2023-10-11T19:05:06ZA successful energy transition depends on managing when people use power. So how do we make demand more flexible?<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/grid-on-knife-edge-as-project-delays-risk-blackouts-electricity-market-operator-warns-20230830-p5e0iz.html">Energy security concerns</a> are mounting as renewable projects and transmission lines are delayed. </p>
<p>In New South Wales, for instance, the government has flagged it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/05/eraring-coal-fired-power-station-nsw-government-in-talks-to-extend-operation">may defer</a> the closure of Eraring coal power station beyond 2025. </p>
<p>NSW has <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/regulation-and-policy/electricity-supply-and-reliability-check">other new policies</a> to “get the energy transition back on track”. These include expanding “customer energy resources”, such as solar panels and batteries, and increasing “demand flexibility” (broadly, using smart technology to shift the times when businesses and homes use power). </p>
<p>With more variable supply from solar and wind energy, demand flexibility is a cheaper and cleaner way to keep the electricity grid stable.</p>
<p><a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2022/02/load-flexibility-study-technical-summary.pdf">Modelling</a> for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) shows this approach could save consumers up to A$18 billion to 2040. Shifting demand can avoid:</p>
<ul>
<li>higher-priced power use at the end of the day</li>
<li>building new poles and wires to increase network capacity to meet peak demand</li>
<li>paying coal plants to stay open.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of Eraring power station next to coal mine and substation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There are cheaper and cleaner ways to keep the power on than paying coal power stations like Eraring to stay open.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CSIRO_ScienceImage_9227_Eraring_Power_Station.jpg">Nick Pitsas, CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-news-theres-a-clean-energy-gold-rush-under-way-well-need-it-to-tackle-energy-price-turbulence-and-coals-exodus-188804">Good news – there's a clean energy gold rush under way. We'll need it to tackle energy price turbulence and coal's exodus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does flexible demand involve?</h2>
<p>Examples of flexible demand include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/using-electric-water-heaters-to-store-renewable-energy-could-do-the-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-us-billions-204281">shifting water heating</a> from night-time (mostly coal-powered) to daytime (using solar)</p></li>
<li><p>reducing temperatures in commercial coolrooms using solar power in the middle of the day, then <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/arena-trial-taps-20mw-of-flexible-demand-from-commercial-refrigeration/">switching chillers off</a> in the late afternoon until they return to standard refrigeration temperatures</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/electricity-smart-meters-offer-hope-for-reliable-clean-energy/11766766">remotely controlling air conditioners</a> to turn them down when the grid is under stress. Households get paid and don’t notice if the aircon is briefly turned down, but across many homes it can make a big difference.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-an-energy-crisis-every-watt-counts-so-yes-turning-off-your-dishwasher-can-make-a-difference-185247">In an energy crisis, every watt counts. So yes, turning off your dishwasher can make a difference</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2023/2023-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf">estimates</a> NSW needs an extra 191 megawatts (MW) of capacity to maintain reliability when Eraring closes. </p>
<p>Another way to cover that capacity shortfall is more flexible demand. Queensland already has almost <a href="https://www.energex.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/1000452/2022-23-Demand-Management-Plan.pdf">150MW of remote-controlled air conditioning</a>. Other types of demand management that Queensland grid operators can call on total about 900MW.</p>
<p>In Western Australia, a newly signed <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/massive-demand-response-contract-to-boost-flexibility-in-worlds-most-isolated-grid/">contract will provide 120MW</a> of demand flexibility.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The chilled and frozen foods section of a supermarket" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Commercial refrigeration can be managed to reduce power use at times of peak demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So what are the obstacles to more flexible demand?</h2>
<p>ARENA commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to <a href="https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-bank/demand-flexibility-portfolio-retrospective-analysis-report/">review the pilot demand flexibility projects</a> it has funded. Many didn’t deliver as much as hoped. </p>
<p>Sometimes, this was because businesses were too busy with day-to-day operations or payments for households were too low to catch their interest. But often it’s a matter of putting policies, technical standards and regulations in place to make demand management seamless and efficient.</p>
<p>ARENA has spent about $180 million on 55 projects with at least some focus on flexible demand. They include air conditioning, pool pumps and hot water systems in homes, commercial building air conditioning and electric vehicle charging.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1465845355820421123"}"></div></p>
<h2>4 ways to increase demand flexibility</h2>
<p>What do these projects tell us about how to increase demand flexibility?</p>
<p><strong>1. Better technical standards</strong></p>
<p>The technical standards required of manufacturers often don’t ensure devices can be used to shape demand. Many air-conditioners couldn’t be controlled in ARENA pilots. </p>
<p>There is also no technical standard for “inter-operability” of devices within homes. Batteries, hot water systems and other devices with different companies’ technologies don’t always work well together. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">Vehicle-to-grid charging</a> for electric vehicles will be the largest opportunity for demand flexibility, but there is no common technical standard. It’s vital to have one before the mass uptake of electric vehicles.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">Owners of electric vehicles to be paid to plug into the grid to help avoid blackouts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Outside Victoria, smart meters that provide real-time information on home energy use are rare. The Australian Energy Market Commission has <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/market-reviews-advice/review-regulatory-framework-metering-services">recommended</a> governments accelerate roll-out of smart meters to 100% by 2030.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smart electricity meter mounted on a wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3008%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A full rollout of smart meters will help energy providers and users to manage demand in real time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. Simpler measurement systems</strong></p>
<p>The measurement systems to calculate payments for demand flexibility are a barrier to expansion. It’s tricky as you need to measure how much electricity was used relative to what would otherwise have occurred. </p>
<p>ARENA pilots that tried to precisely measure residential demand flexibility found it was financially unviable at the smaller scale. </p>
<p>The system used for AEMO’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/initiatives/trials-and-initiatives/wholesale-demand-response-mechanism">Wholesale Demand Response Mechanism</a> (WDRM) effectively limits participation to businesses with predictable, flat consumption profiles. This excludes as much as <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2020/wdrm-becm-policy/first-round/oakley-greenwood-report---phase-2-analysis-final-report-march-2021.pdf?la=en">80–90% of sites</a>. <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/initiatives/wdr/baseline_consumption_methodology_phase_2_report_oct13.pdf">International measurement models</a> could be trialled here to open up participation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-demand-response-energy-rules-sound-good-but-the-devil-is-in-the-hugely-complicated-details-120676">New demand-response energy rules sound good, but the devil is in the (hugely complicated) details</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>3. More certainty about payments</strong></p>
<p>Earnings from providing demand flexibility depend on weather, market prices and so on. This uncertainty makes it hard to get businesses to sign up. </p>
<p>Overseas, some energy markets guarantee payment for making demand flexibility available. These have the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-06/Updated%20International%20Review%20of%20Demand%20Response%20Mechanisms.pdf">highest participation</a>. </p>
<p>The federal government is <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/capacity-investment-scheme-power-australian-energy-market-transformation">consulting on a capacity investment scheme</a>. Because it will have the same measurement system as the current mechanism, participation is likely to be limited.</p>
<p><strong>4. Fresh policy approaches</strong></p>
<p>Businesses that sign up under the Wholesale Demand Response Mechanism make bids in the National Electricity Market to be <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/initiatives/trials-and-initiatives/wholesale-demand-response-mechanism">paid for reducing their power use</a> when demand and prices are high. This should reduce prices for all consumers and improve energy security when the grid is under stress. However, it has attracted only one participant – mainly due to the complex measurement system – and isn’t open to households.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/networks-pipelines/guidelines-schemes-models-reviews/demand-management-incentive-scheme-and-innovation-allowance-mechanism">incentive scheme</a> for electricity networks to invest in demand management is chronically under-used.</p>
<p>There are simpler alternatives that have worked before. The national <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET">Renewable Energy Target</a> and state energy efficiency certificate schemes fund rooftop solar or energy retrofits based on average output or energy savings from past experience. These simple calculations offer a relatively stable incentive, which could work for demand flexibility. </p>
<p>NSW’s <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/regulation-and-policy/energy-security-safeguard/peak-demand-reduction-scheme">Peak Demand Reduction Scheme</a>, launched last year, could provide a model for using certificate schemes to boost demand flexibility.</p>
<h2>Get serious about demand flexibility</h2>
<p>The focus of NSW’s development of a <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/regulation-and-policy/electricity-supply-and-reliability-check">customer energy resources policy</a> appears to be on “virtual power plants”. These co-ordinate household solar and battery systems to store solar power and export to the grid when it’s most needed. </p>
<p>Batteries are part of the solution, but cheaper options exist. An electric water heater with a 300-litre tank can <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/Domestic%20Hot%20Water%20and%20Flexibility.pdf">store as much energy</a> as a second-generation Tesla battery at much less cost. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/Domestic%20Hot%20Water%20and%20Flexibility.pdf">Modelling</a> for ARENA finds hot water systems could store as much energy as more than 2 million household batteries. Retrofitting these systems will spread savings more widely to include low-income households as well as those that can afford a battery.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/using-electric-water-heaters-to-store-renewable-energy-could-do-the-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-us-billions-204281">Using electric water heaters to store renewable energy could do the work of 2 million home batteries – and save us billions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>It’s time we got serious about developing a holistic demand flexibility strategy. It will be cheaper and cleaner than paying coal plants to stay open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213079/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures is the knowledge sharing agent for the Australiran Renewable Energy Agency's demand flexibility portfolio. ARENA provided funding for the review of its demand flexibility pilots referred to in the article. The views in this article are those of the author and should not be considered the views of ARENA. </span></em></p>Rather than paying ageing power stations to stay open in the transition to renewable energy, demand flexibility is cheaper and cleaner way to ensure the system has enough capacity.Chris Briggs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115742023-08-31T14:57:11Z2023-08-31T14:57:11ZRooftop renewables risk making the rich richer, as latecomers will struggle to access the grid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545784/original/file-20230831-27-jj5zgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C7%2C5161%2C3422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wozzie / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people are now becoming “energy citizens” by installing rooftop solar panels and other small-scale renewable energy projects in their properties. </p>
<p>In theory, this is a “win-win”. Added renewable energy brings down the cost of energy, and by replacing fossil fuels, cuts planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions. But there is concern that as more people install solar panels and other renewable projects, local electricity grids may become congested. </p>
<p>We wanted to understand this problem and propose a solution, and our latest research has just been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121641">published</a>. Though we focused on Ireland, where we live and work, something similar is happening across much of the world. </p>
<p>We first surveyed the country’s entire electricity infrastructure and discovered that if everyone wanted rooftop solar, then the grid could only serve 5% of the 1.6 million electricity customers studied. </p>
<p>That’s based on each household wanting to install 6 kilowatts of renewables – rooftop solar on one side of a typical house, for instance, or a single small wind turbine – which is the maximum limit supported by the <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/b1fbe-micro-generation/">microgeneration support scheme</a> in Ireland. In other words, if everyone installed solar panels, then 95% of households would not be able to connect them to the national grid.</p>
<p>This appears to mirror the situation at present in electricity grids like that of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00887-6">California</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en15041593">Spain</a> and <a href="https://taz.de/Zu-langsamer-Ausbau-der-Stromnetze/!5902431/">Germany</a>, where early-comers are blocking access for latecomers. While these countries are further ahead in their rollout of rooftop solar, portions of the electricity grid now have no availability for new installations.</p>
<p>This is unfair: often, more well-off households are the first to install solar PV, and benefit from subsidies. It also limits how useful microgeneration can be to the overall goal of decarbonising society.</p>
<h2>A game of musical chairs</h2>
<p>The situation could be compared to a game of musical chairs. </p>
<p>The first problem is the number of chairs: the electricity grid was not designed for every house to produce lots of renewable energy. As the sun shines, for example, every customer with a solar panel must instantly use the electricity or spill it to the grid. </p>
<p>This is fine if only a few customers are spilling, but at a national scale all that spilled energy can exceed the physical capacity of the cables, causing equipment-damaging overvoltage or service interruptions from protection tripping. To prevent this the grid operator must limit the amount of renewable energy connected. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Houses with solar panels on roof" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If every house looked like this the national grid could not cope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">esbobeldijk / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are some ways to address this problem technically – to make more chairs available. These include investing in new cables, or installing home battery banks and timed electric vehicle chargers so that energy use can be better coordinated. But these ideas all come with large financial costs. </p>
<p>Electricity grids in wealthy countries – the Irish grid being a good example – have been under construction for over a century and re-purposing them will be no small feat. Doing this may be even more difficult in emerging economies due to additional struggles to cover the costs.</p>
<p>The second problem is the music, or who gets to sit first. Current policy allows a “first-come first-served” approach to installing renewables, which inevitably gives priority to high-income portions of society to find an empty chair to sit in, and to benefit financially. </p>
<h2>Justice implications</h2>
<p>As the electricity sector is transformed by renewable energy, there are new justice implications worth exploring. Imagine building a house, or moving to an area in the future, to find out that all grid availability has already been taken and it is not possible for you to connect any new solar panels. The direct benefits of owning a clean energy installation are not for you. </p>
<p>Our research suggests that it is possible to adjust this policy to make grid availability a shared resource. First, instead of blanket limits – like the subsidised 6 kilowatts in Ireland – we’ll need a detailed analysis of the grid to work out <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2021.3124999">how much renewable generation per household is fair</a>, or the maximum each can have without affecting others. </p>
<p>This calculation is necessary because that “fair share” varies for customers, as there are technical constraints derived from the user’s location in the grid (how near are they to a substation, how many people does that substation serve, how is it then connected to the wider grid, and so on). </p>
<p>The second way to better share the grid is to acknowledge that some households have the money to install more than their fair share, and instead help everyone else to work together. For instance less interested or capable households could pool their shares in new solar panels or wind turbines in exchange for cheaper electricity derived from those very installations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated maps of Ireland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The authors simulated how much rooftop solar an average household in Ireland would have in 30 years with current policy (left) and if grid access was considered a shared resource (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192301005X?via%3Dihub#fig6">Cuenca et al</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Factor in equity</h2>
<p>We should recognise some progress. Irish and European institutions are trying to achieve decarbonisation goals, and renewable energy installations are indeed accelerating. The transition to low-carbon energy is now inevitable – the question is not if, but how, the transition is conducted. </p>
<p>But renewable energy shouldn’t exacerbate existing inequalities. Policies for domestic wind and solar should factor in concerns about equity, meaning we could allow all electricity customers to benefit financially from clean energy, and not just from having cleaner air to breathe. </p>
<p>Our new research opens a discussion for regulators and government institutions. This is not about music or chairs, but about the fundamental question of fairness and ownership in a fast-evolving energy sector in Ireland and beyond.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Jose Cuenca Silva received funding from the Government of Ireland through the "CENTS" research project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry Hayes receives funding Science Foundation Ireland via MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Daly receives funding to support research from MaREI, the SFI Centre for Climate, Energy and the Marine, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, and the Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>Wealthier people are getting their solar panels connected first, leaving a more congested grid for everyone else.Juan José Cuenca Silva, Researcher in Electrical Engineering, University College CorkBarry Hayes, Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Power Systems Engineering, University College CorkHannah Daly, Professor in Sustainable Energy, University College CorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2035482023-04-12T20:04:00Z2023-04-12T20:04:00ZFarewell Liddell: what to expect when Australia’s oldest coal plant closes<p>After more than five decades, the last operating units of the Liddell coal-fired power station will close this month. The station’s owner, AGL, is Australia’s <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Greenpeace_Coal-Faced-Report_Digital_Edit-June-2021.pdf">largest carbon polluter</a>. Liddell’s closure will reduce the company’s emissions <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/content/dam/digital/agl/documents/about-agl/sustainability/ctap.pdf">by 17%</a>.</p>
<p>Liddell, in the New South Wales Hunter Valley, is Australia’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-05/liddell-coal-fired-power-station-about-to-close-what-comes-next/102027488">oldest coal station</a>. It started operations in the early 1970s – about the same time the Datsun 180B was released, and before the Sydney Opera House officially opened! </p>
<p>In the same way a Datsun 180B was a great car in its day, Liddell was the cheapest and most reliable electricity generation technology in the 1970s and 1980s (at least if you ignore the long-term costs of carbon).</p>
<p>But like all coal-fired power stations in Australia, Liddell’s performance <a href="https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2023/01/farewell-liddell/">declined</a> as it aged. It became unreliable and inefficient. One unit of the station closed last year, leaving three operating.</p>
<p>Governments must act to make sure our electricity grid doesn’t fall short when coal plants close. But the demise of facilities such as Liddell means Australia has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to become a global energy superpower. </p>
<h2>Life after Liddell</h2>
<p>AGL announced the decision to close Liddell in 2015. Virtually no one in the energy industry argued against the move, but it triggered endless <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/10/coalition-mps-attack-agl-decision-to-shut-liddell-coal-power-station">political debate</a>.</p>
<p>Some politicians are still railing against Liddell’s retirement. Federal Nationals leader David Littleproud <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/new-energy-minister-penny-sharpe-says-nsw-facing-serious-challenges-on-electricity/news-story/c72fd9f1bd6c15ebae5b4d9f15215741">this week said</a> the closure should be delayed to prevent supply problems, and suggested Australia should have an urgent conversation about building nuclear energy.</p>
<p>But closing Liddell is unlikely to cause the lights to go off in NSW. For now, the state has enough remaining capacity to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2023/february-2023-update-to-the-2022-esoo.pdf">ensure reliable supply</a>.</p>
<p>In the eight years since the decision to close Liddell, large-scale renewable capacity in NSW has <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-planning-data/generation-information">ramped up</a>, as has new <a href="https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/postcode">rooftop solar</a>. </p>
<p>Plenty of new “firming” capacity is also being developed – that is, flexible energy capacity to be activated if renewables aren’t producing energy or electricity demand suddenly increases. Projects under construction in NSW include the Kurri Kurri and Tallawarra gas-fired power stations, the Waratah “super battery” and the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project.</p>
<p>When electricity consumption in NSW is at its highest, about <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-08/2019_11_NSW_ElectricityStrategyDetailed.pdf">14,000 MW</a> of power is required. Without Liddell, about <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/registered-capacity-by-fuel-source-regions">13,500 MW</a> of coal, gas and hydro generation is available. </p>
<p>Add in existing wind and solar capacity, plus energy that can be imported from Victoria and Queensland via transmission lines, and total generation capacity in NSW looks to be more than enough.</p>
<p>However, the reliability of some of this remaining capacity – namely, remaining coal-fired power stations – is becoming less certain. That’s why the energy industry is looking past Liddell, to the closure of the Eraring coal plant in 2025, and others to follow. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-coal-use-in-2022-is-reaching-an-all-time-high-but-australia-is-bucking-the-trend-196809">Global coal use in 2022 is reaching an all-time high, but Australia is bucking the trend</a>
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<h2>All eyes on Eraring</h2>
<p>Modelling by the Australian Energy Market Operator shows the closure of Eraring <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2023/february-2023-update-to-the-2022-esoo.pdf">puts pressure</a> on remaining electricity supply. However, it says the market would still meet the grid “reliability standard”, even if no new projects are developed.</p>
<p>Under that standard, expected unserved energy needs (leading to blackouts) should be no more than 0.002% of total energy used in a region. The standard assumes that while the occasional blackout is inconvenient, eliminating them completely is unfeasible because it would require building expensive power stations that are rarely used.</p>
<p>Blackouts could become more common, if extreme weather hits or coal units fail – <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/still-no-answer-to-catastrophic-failure-at-callide-power-station-20230125-p5cfha">which happened</a> at Queensland’s Callide C power station in 2021. But blackouts are still far more likely to be the result of a <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Reliability%20Standard%20Factsheet.pdf">power line problem in your street</a> than a lack of generation capacity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="sign reading 'Eraring power station'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520434/original/file-20230412-28-ufitvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The grid will remain reliable after Eraring shuts down in 2025.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Over to the Minns government</h2>
<p>No electricity supply shortfalls are projected for Australia in the near-term. But to ensure the clean energy transition happens smoothly, we should develop new renewable energy and firming capacity <em>ahead</em> of coal closures.</p>
<p>The earlier-than-expected closure of coal units remains a possibility – as occurred with Victoria’s Hazelwood coal station due to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-01/worksafe-notices-detail-extent-of-repairs-needed-at-hazelwood/8082318">unaffordable repair costs</a>. </p>
<p>We have previously <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-key-measures-in-the-suite-of-new-reforms-to-deal-with-australias-energy-crisis-184554">recommended</a> a “waiting room” for capacity that can be brought quickly into the market when required. Batteries and pumped hydro would be developed ahead of coal closures, and brought into the market as soon as coal exits.</p>
<p>The NSW Minns Labor government can also bring forward investment through an existing policy called the NSW Energy Roadmap. This involves asking the Australian Energy Market Operator to enter into <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/industry/long-term-energy-service-agreements">long-term contracts</a> to underwrite new renewable energy and firming projects, to help reduce the financial risks proponents face. </p>
<p>One tender round is already under way, but this could be accelerated. Given the <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/global-energy-crisis">global energy crunch</a>, it may be worth commissioning projects now, even if delivery is not required until later. This is a much better way to manage reliability than, for example, the NSW government using taxpayer money to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-labor-may-buy-australias-biggest-coal-generator-to-keep-it-open/">buy Eraring</a> – an option NSW Labor left on the table ahead of last month’s state election.</p>
<p>In the longer term, construction of renewable generation <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/boom-cycle-means-82-pct-renewables-target-is-doable-says-regulator/">must dramatically scale up</a> to ensure energy reliability and meet emissions reduction targets. </p>
<p>This will be challenging. But we can take heart from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-takes-victory-lap-on-clean-energy-after-doubling-the-approval-of-projects-20230406-p5cyoq.html">news this week</a> that under the federal Albanese government, renewables projects are being approved at twice the rate of previous years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-an-easy-400-a-year-ditch-the-gas-heater-in-your-home-for-an-electric-split-system-201941">Want an easy $400 a year? Ditch the gas heater in your home for an electric split system</a>
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<h2>A new era</h2>
<p>There’s more work to be done to make sure the electricity grid can withstand coal plant closures. </p>
<p>Many new transmission lines must be built to carry electricity from renewables generators to the grid. And the ongoing development of <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/renewable-energy-zones">renewable energy zones</a> – clusters of large-scale renewable energy projects – will make establishing new projects quicker and simpler. </p>
<p>Importantly, local communities and First Nations people must be engaged and consulted throughout the transition.</p>
<p>But while adjusting to the exit of coal brings challenges, nuclear power in Australia is unlikely to be the answer.</p>
<p>Australia has world-class wind and solar resources – enough to eventually produce clean, cheap energy for ourselves and for export. Technologies such as batteries, hydrogen and hydro will fill the gaps when needed.</p>
<p>Producing energy from emerging nuclear technologies in the form of “small modular reactors”, as proposed by Littleproud, will be still be <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/publications/publication/PIcsiro:EP2022-5511">more than twice the cost</a> of Australian renewable energy firmed by batteries or other storage technologies, even under the most ambitious scenarios. This gives Australia a global competitive advantage.</p>
<p>Liddell’s closure is an historic moment in the Australian energy landscape. Now, with tweaks to existing policies, the new NSW government can increase reliability, lower electricity prices and get on the path to net-zero.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-wont-cut-it-we-need-solar-thermal-technology-to-get-us-through-the-night-203545">Batteries won't cut it – we need solar thermal technology to get us through the night</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the GM, Policy and Regional Energy at Iberdrola Australia, which develops renewable projects and batteries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, which develops renewable projects and batteries. He is also a Climate Councillor. </span></em></p>Liddell’s closure is an historic moment in the Australian energy landscape. Now, let’s get to net-zero.Joel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityTim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023082023-03-24T12:36:27Z2023-03-24T12:36:27ZHow do superconductors work? A physicist explains what it means to have resistance-free electricity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517284/original/file-20230323-14-cz0c5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C98%2C5928%2C3574&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Magnetic levitation is just one of the interesting attributes that make superconductors so interesting.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/magnet-floating-above-a-superconductor-royalty-free-illustration/1301762762?phrase=superconductor&adppopup=true">Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library vie Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The modern world runs on electricity, and wires are what carry that electricity to every light, television, heating system, cellphone and computer on the planet. Unfortunately, on average, about <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/jennifer-chen/lost-transmission-worlds-biggest-machine-needs-update">5%</a> of the power generated at a coal or solar power plant is lost as the electricity is transmitted from the plant to its final destination. This amounts to a <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/jennifer-chen/lost-transmission-worlds-biggest-machine-needs-update">US$6 billion loss annually</a> in the U.S. alone. </p>
<p>For decades, scientists have been <a href="https://www.energy.gov/science/doe-explainssuperconductivity">developing materials called superconductors</a> that transmit electricity with nearly 100% efficiency. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5gCcMuMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">I am a physicist</a> who investigates how superconductors work at the atomic level, how current flows at very low temperatures, and how applications such as levitation can be realized. Recently, researchers have made significant progress toward developing superconductors that can function at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-648X/ac2864">relatively normal temperatures and pressures</a>.</p>
<p>To see why these recent advances are so exciting and what impact they may have on the world, it’s important to understand how superconducting materials work.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two lightbulbs next to each other with one showing a glowing filament." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517258/original/file-20230323-1492-h3oux6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most materials offer resistance when electricity runs through them and heat up. Resistance is how filaments in an incandescent lightbulb produce light.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbonfilament.jpg#/media/File:Carbonfilament.jpg">Ulfbastel/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A resistance-free material</h2>
<p>A superconductor is any material that conducts electricity without offering any resistance to the flow of the electric current. </p>
<p>This resistance-free attribute of superconductors contrasts dramatically with <a href="https://sciencenotes.org/examples-of-conductors-and-insulators/">standard conductors</a> of electricity – like copper or aluminum – which heat up when current passes through them. This is similar to quickly sliding your hand across a smooth, slick surface compared to sliding your hand over a rough rug. The rug generates more friction and, therefore, more heat, too. Electric toasters and older-style incandescent lightbulbs use resistance to produce heat and light, but resistance can pose <a href="https://resources.pcb.cadence.com/blog/2022-the-influence-of-the-joule-heating-effect-on-pcbs-and-ics">problems for electronics</a>. Semiconductors have resistance below that of conductors, but still higher than that of superconductors. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sJLSL61sLZ0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Superconductive materials repel magnetic fields, making it possible to levitate a magnet above a superconductor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another characteristic of superconductors is that they repel magnetic fields. You may have seen videos of the fascinating result of this effect: It is possible to levitate magnets above a superconductor. </p>
<h2>How do superconductors work?</h2>
<p>All superconductors are made of materials that are electrically neutral – that is, their atoms contain negatively charged electrons that surround a nucleus with an equal number of positively charged protons. </p>
<p>If you attach one end of a wire to something that is positively charged, and the other end to something that is negatively charged, the system will want to reach equilibrium by moving electrons around. This causes the electrons in the wire to try to move through the material. </p>
<p>At normal temperatures, electrons move in somewhat erratic paths. They can generally succeed in moving through a wire freely, but every once in a while they collide with the nuclei of the material. These collisions are what obstruct the flow of electrons, cause resistance and heat up the material.</p>
<p>The nuclei of all atoms are constantly vibrating. In a superconducting material, instead of flitting around randomly, the moving electrons get passed along from atom to atom in such a way that they keep <a href="https://www.energy.gov/science/bes/articles/electrons-line-dance-superconductor#:%7E:text=Superconductors%20are%20materials%20that%20can,called%20a%20pair%20density%20wave.">in sync</a> with the vibrating nuclei. This coordinated movement produces no collisions and, therefore, no resistance and no heat.</p>
<p>The colder a material gets, the more organized the movement of electrons and nuclei becomes. This is why existing superconductors only work at extremely <a href="https://journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.108.1175">low temperatures</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up view of a computer chip." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517262/original/file-20230323-14-bajdav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Superconducting materials would allow engineers to fit many more circuits onto a single computer chip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Siliconchip_by_shapeshifter.png#/media/File:Siliconchip_by_shapeshifter.png">David Carron/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Benefits to electronics</h2>
<p>If scientists can develop a room-temperature superconducting material, wires and circuitry in electronics would be <a href="https://www.psfc.mit.edu/events/2017/high-temperature-superconductors-advantages-and-key-challenges-in-their-deployment-for">much more efficient</a> and produce far less heat. The benefits of this would be widespread.</p>
<p>If the wires used to transmit electricity were replaced with superconducting materials, these new lines would be able to carry up to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2014-05-longest-superconducting-cable-worldwide.html">five times as much electricity</a> more efficiently than current cables. </p>
<p>The speed of computers is mostly limited by how many wires can be packed into a single electric circuit on a chip. The density of wires is often <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-0-387-09766-4_499">limited by waste heat</a>. If engineers could use superconducting wires, they could fit many more wires in a circuit, leading to faster and cheaper electronics.</p>
<p>Finally, with room-temperature superconductors, magnetic levitation could be used for <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/16183">all sorts of applications</a>, from trains to energy-storage devices.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/science/room-temperature-superconductor-ranga-dias.html">recent advances providing exciting news</a>, both researchers looking at the fundamental physics of high-temperature superconductivity as well as technologists waiting for new applications are paying attention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mishkat Bhattacharya receives funding from the Office of Naval Research. </span></em></p>Superconductors are materials that can transmit electricity without any resistance. Researchers are getting closer to creating superconducting materials that can function in everyday life.Mishkat Bhattacharya, Professor of Physics and Astronomy, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002882023-02-22T14:14:41Z2023-02-22T14:14:41ZSouth Africa’s power crisis: going off the grid works for the wealthy – but could deepen injustice for the poor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511379/original/file-20230221-22-y6ygjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C565%2C4168%2C2225&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A view of Johannesburg's Braamfontein district seconds after a scheduled power cut.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Marco Longar/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s current electricity crisis has been described as “<a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/659093/eskoms-worst-performing-power-station-where-workers-fear-for-their-life/">a perfect storm</a>”. A number of factors have converged to reach this point: an ageing and inadequately maintained fleet of coal power stations, <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/12/08/eskom-delays-maintenance-of-koeberg-nuclear-power-station-s-unit-one">delays</a> in upgrading the Koeberg nuclear power station and significant failures at the recently built <a href="https://mg.co.za/news/2022-09-29-energy-crisis-another-r33-billion-needed-to-complete-medupi-and-kusile/">Medupi and Kusile</a> coal power stations. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of 2022, power utility Eskom’s inability to meet the country’s electricity demand has resulted in unprecedented loadshedding (scheduled power cuts). In 2022, electricity interruptions totalled <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/can-adding-rooftop-solar-really-move-the-loadshedding-needle-2023-02-14">3,775 hours over 205 days</a>. The situation almost certainly will not improve any time soon.</p>
<p>At the same time, Gauteng – South Africa’s most populous province and its economic hub – has experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">critical water supply issues</a>. In late 2022 and early 2023, the combined impact of heat waves, intermittent pumping of water because of electricity interruptions and infrastructure failure has led to demand outstripping water supply. Residents of Gauteng’s biggest municipalities have experienced near-daily low water pressure or water cuts.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country's water system</a>
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<p>Many private individuals and businesses are investing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-power-backup-systems-electrical-engineers-answer-your-questions-199808">alternative electricity</a> and water sources. The exact number is uncertain – most systems are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-silent-revolution-those-with-cash-go-solar-2022-08-15/">not registered</a>. Alternative investments include water tanks, boreholes, solar panels and diesel generators. These solutions cost anywhere from R4,000 (about US$220) for rainwater tanks and <a href="https://www.aquify.co.za/borehole-cost/">up to R180,000</a> (almost US$10,000) for a borehole. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-power-backup-systems-electrical-engineers-answer-your-questions-199808">cost of installing</a> residential solar panels is anywhere from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Inverters and batteries are also pricey. Even with financing options, most households can’t afford alternatives.</p>
<p>These investments are generally efforts to maintain a level of normality and to survive through unreliable water and electricity supply. But the cumulative effect of these individual actions could have significant consequences for inequality and service provision for the poor. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/09/new-world-bank-report-assesses-sources-of-inequality-in-five-countries-in-southern-africa">South Africa is already one of the most unequal countries in the world</a>.</p>
<p>Poor people are less able to afford alternatives for power and water. There’s also the risk that municipalities will gradually be unable to cross-subsidise services to the poor as they lose revenue from wealthy consumers.</p>
<p>Social justice considerations have been at the forefront of South Africa’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework">just transition</a> from coal-based to renewable electricity generation. But this has largely focused on the labour force and affected communities. Less attention has been paid to the justice implications of electricity distribution.</p>
<p>Despite the potential negative consequences of private investments in off-grid water and electricity, these could be mobilised to help address the current crises rather than exacerbate it. However, this requires re-imagining the role of the state and citizens, reworking municipal funding models, and encouraging private investors to support the grid in various ways.</p>
<h2>What do the Quality of Life data tell us?</h2>
<p>In early February 2023 we used survey data from 2013 to 2021 to show how Gauteng households were investing in alternative electricity and water provision. We examined who was accessing these alternative sources and who was not. </p>
<p>The data for this project was drawn from the <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/">Gauteng City-Region Observatory</a> (GCRO)‘s regular Quality of Life survey, which is designed to gather a representative sample of Gauteng residents. It includes questions about demographics, living conditions and socio-economic circumstances. All the datasets are freely available to download through the University of Cape Town’s <a href="https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/GCRO/?page=1&sort_by=title&sort_order=asc&ps=15&repo=GCRO">DataFirst</a> platform.</p>
<p>The data reveal that access to alternative electricity and water sources has increased over time. In 2013/14, only 0.8% of residents reported having access to solar or wind energy, while 0.3% had a generator.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household access to alternative electricity and water sources is increasing over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By 2020/21, these figures had jumped to 5% and 4%, respectively. Despite this increase, only a small minority of Gauteng residents (about 1 in 20) have access to alternative water and electricity. </p>
<p>Affluent households are proportionately more likely to invest in alternative electricity and water sources than poorer households. In 2020/21, 2% of respondents with a monthly household income below R3,201 (around US$177) had a rainwater tank. Some 4% of this income group had a borehole or well. In contrast, 9% of the respondents in the higher income groups – a monthly household income over R25,600 (about US$1,415) – had access to a rainwater tank or borehole. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Affluent households are more likely to have access to alternative water sources than poor households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The uneven increase in access to alternative electricity is particularly notable. Access to solar power grew from 0.3% in 2015/16 to 3% in 2020/21 for households earning less than R800/month. For the highest income group (monthly household income more than R51,200), access to solar increased from 4% to 12% over the same period. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over time, wealthier households have accessed alternative electricity substantially more than poorer households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Implications for a just transition</h2>
<p>The gap is clearly widening between affluent households who can shield themselves from electricity and water interruptions, and poorer households who cannot afford to do so. </p>
<p>And this gap could widen further because of how municipal services are financed. Under the current funding model, municipalities depend on revenue from basic service provision (electricity, water and refuse) to fund their mandated activities. They use the revenue from industries, businesses and wealthy consumers to cross-subsidise services for the poor. </p>
<p>This model has been <a href="https://www.polity.org.za/article/same-old-funding-model-cant-keep-south-african-cities-going-or-serve-residents-2021-08-13">critiqued</a> for being unsustainable and creating perverse incentives for municipalities to elevate tariffs and encourage high users to keep consuming electricity. But it at least ensures access to services for poor households.</p>
<p>The current move by residents and businesses towards self-generated electricity has potentially dire consequences for municipalities’ ability to ensure fiscal stability and equitable access to services.</p>
<p>It also has some technical drawbacks. Private investments have the potential to add strain and complexity to the grid. Grid-charged battery systems increase electricity consumption and post-loadshedding peaks. Solar photovoltaic installations reduce pressure on the grid during the day. But, they leave the evening peak unchanged. Power plants must continue producing electricity in excess during the daytime demand to ensure they can meet the evening peak. </p>
<p>Private borehole installations could cause uneven depletion of aquifers. They could also negatively affect groundwater management and undermine the availability of these water resources for broader society. </p>
<h2>Mobilising private investments</h2>
<p>However, there are opportunities to harness private investments to cope with the current electricity and potential future water crises.</p>
<p>Municipalities are beginning to give households and businesses incentives to sell their excess power back to the grid. This could reduce the cost of electricity for municipalities, maximising their ability to cross-subsidise service delivery for the poor. </p>
<p>Where households and businesses have invested in batteries, they could store solar energy and sell it back to the grid during the evening peak.</p>
<p><em>In addition to the authors, the Off-grid Cities project team members include: Fiona Anciano, Charlotte Lemanski, Margot Rubin, Laurence Piper, SJ Cooper-Knock, Temba Middelmann, Brian Murahwa, Joanna Watterson, Eyong Tarh, Miguel Isaac and Zackeen Thomas.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article is an output of the Off-Grid Cities: Elite infrastructure secession and social justice project, which is funded by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 129484). The project is a partnership between the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO), the University of the Western Cape, the University of Cambridge, Cardiff University and the University of Sheffield, which explores the dynamics and implications of households and businesses investing in alternative water and electricity.</span></em></p>Very little attention has been paid to the justice implications of electricity distribution.Christina Culwick Fatti, Senior researcher, urban sustainability transitions, environmental governance and resilience, Gauteng City-Region ObservatorySamkelisiwe Khanyile, Researcher, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2003552023-02-22T05:41:10Z2023-02-22T05:41:10ZAustralia’s energy market operator is worried about the grid’s reliability. But should it be?<p>The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) this week <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-issues-nem-reliability-update">released an update</a> to its annual assessment of reliability, the so-called Electricity Statement of Opportunities. This has been reported as the market operator forecasting “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/east-coast-power-shortages-on-the-cards-without-new-projects-aemo-20230220-p5clwj.html">power shortages</a>”, or the network being “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/20/australia-at-risk-of-electricity-supply-shortages-as-renewable-projects-lag-behind-coal-plant-closures">at risk of supply shortages</a>”. </p>
<p>The market operator has certainly put up in lights its message that there’s an “urgent need for investment in generation, long-duration storage and transmission to achieve reliability requirements over the next decade”. Yet the reliability outlook has actually improved overall since AEMO’s previous statement last August. </p>
<p>At first pass, this seems counterintuitive. How can reliability be improving, yet still evidently cause for grave concern?</p>
<p>To interpret the report and statements fully, it’s important to understand how the analysis is prepared, and what is and isn’t included in the overall outlook.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-grid-anyway-making-sense-of-the-complex-beast-that-is-australias-electricity-network-185127">What's a grid, anyway? Making sense of the complex beast that is Australia's electricity network</a>
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<h2>The Statement of Opportunities</h2>
<p>Every year, AEMO prepares a report that assesses the reliability of the National Electricity Market (NEM). Reliability is a measure of the power system’s ability to supply demand. A reliable power system has adequate resources – generation, demand response and transmission capacity – to supply customers. </p>
<p>In the NEM, the reliability of the system is reported in terms of “expected unserved energy”. This is essentially a measure of the expected amount of electricity <em>not</em> delivered to customers, as a result of inadequate capacity to meet the anticipated demand. </p>
<p>AEMO’s reliability assessment looks ahead ten years, to provide information to the electricity market more broadly on any potential gaps or shortfalls in supply that would put reliability at risk. This was intended to guide the private sector, by highlighting “opportunities” for new investment across the electricity system. Hence the report is named the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/nem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities-esoo">Electricity Statement of Opportunities</a>. </p>
<p>But, importantly, the assessment does not actually forecast a market response or any other intervention in power generation or transmission. It generally only looks at “committed projects” – those that are all but guaranteed to be completed. </p>
<p>As such, it provides an estimate of the expected unserved energy over the next decade, if (and only if) there is no further investment or response. A consequence of this is that a large amount of potential investment and future capacity is not included. </p>
<h2>The update</h2>
<p>AEMO’s updated report was prompted by a range of “material generation capacity changes” since the August statement. This includes delays to the Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant and the Snowy 2.0 hydro project. </p>
<p>However, it includes the addition of 461 megawatts of battery storage and 1,326MW of wind developments that have reached “committed” status since August. It also includes the <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/projects/waratah-super-battery">Waratah Super Battery</a>, which will effectively unlock additional capacity in the transmission system. </p>
<p>This is why the reliability outlook has improved. There are now no “supply gaps” projected in any region of the NEM, which covers Australia’s southern and eastern states, until 2025-26, where previously there were. </p>
<p>Besides these committed projects, more than 2,000MW of battery capacity is “anticipated” to be available. But, as it has not yet met the formal commitment criteria, it has not been considered in AEMO’s assessment. </p>
<p>The latest report also doesn’t include capacity that will supported by the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/victorian-renewable-energy-and-storage-targets/victorian-renewable-energy-target-auction-vret2">Victorian Renewable Energy Target</a> or the <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/major-state-projects/electricity-infrastructure-roadmap">NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap</a>. </p>
<p>Several transmission developments that are expected to significantly reduce projected reliability risks were also not included. One of these, the Victoria-New South Wales Interconnector West, received a significant boost just yesterday, with the Victorian government issuing orders to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/government-order-supports-community-input-for-vni-west">accelerate the project</a>. Other schemes are still working their way through the regulatory process, and hence are also not yet included in AEMO’s statements. </p>
<p>So, while AEMO’s assessment projects supply gaps appearing from 2026 onwards, as various projects and other initiatives progress we can expect this outlook to continue to improve. This is, after all, how it’s supposed to work. The market operator highlights emerging gaps, and various actors respond to prevent those gaps becoming reality. </p>
<h2>Emerging risks</h2>
<p>This is certainly not to say everything is fine. There are some significant risks and challenges on the horizon. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/crunch-time-looms-for-origin-on-eraring-closure-20230217-p5clb4">potential closure of Eraring power station</a> in just two-and-a-half years is a key risk to reliability in NSW in particular. In the shorter term, a return to hot summers in 2023-24 could give the system its harshest test in years. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-12/snowy-2-0-this-hole-is-above-a-stuck-tunnel-boring-machine/101957418">delay of Snowy 2.0</a> may also have significant impacts on the reliability of the system. Unfortunately, AEMO’s update doesn’t provide much meaningful information on the implications of this situation. </p>
<p>AEMO’s report does not include the transmission projects required to realise the benefits of Snowy 2.0, so the impact of a delay is rather a moot point. It is reasonable to assume, however, that the promised 2 gigawatts of firm supply would have a considerable impact on the reliability outlook. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amid-blackout-scare-stories-remember-that-a-grid-without-power-cuts-is-impossible-and-expensive-102115">Amid blackout scare stories, remember that a grid without power cuts is impossible... and expensive</a>
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<p>As previously mentioned, there are plenty of projects – renewable, storage, transmission and demand response – that can mitigate these risks. But of course we have to actually deliver them. Supply-chain issues, skills shortages and community opposition are key challenges facing the delivery of new capacity. </p>
<p>At a federal level, the newly announced <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/capacity-investment-scheme-power-australian-energy-market-transformation">Capacity Investment Scheme</a> may help bring more storage capacity online. The <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/rewiring-nation-supports-its-first-two-transmission-projects">Rewiring the Nation</a> plan is intended to bring forward important transmission projects. A bevy of state government programs and interventions will also help bring new projects online. </p>
<p>Supply shortages can be assured if nothing happens beyond what is assumed in the assessment. Things are of course happening – but we do have to get cracking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell's current position is supported by the Race for 2030 CRC. </span></em></p>Are blackouts really looming by the middle of this decade? An AEMO report warns they might be – but there are plenty of projects on the drawing board that will help ease the squeeze on the grid.Dylan McConnell, Senior Research Associate, Renewable Energy & Energy Systems Analyst, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998082023-02-17T10:50:34Z2023-02-17T10:50:34ZHome power backup systems – electrical engineers answer your questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510817/original/file-20230217-25-kdw80u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africans are taking their power supply into their own hands with backup systems that don't rely on power utility Eskom.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s electricity utility Eskom has made it clear that “loadshedding” – rolling scheduled power cuts – <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/01/06/eskom-says-stage-3-and-4-load-shedding-pattern-to-continue-indefinitely">isn’t going to end any time soon</a>. This reality, and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement during his annual state of the nation speech on 9 February 2023 that <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-02-09-ramaphosas-tax-incentives-a-ray-of-light-for-solar-panel-roll-out-to-ease-sas-energy-crisis/">tax incentives for solar power use</a> are imminent, mean that many people <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">are considering</a> alternative electricity supply systems for their homes.</p>
<p>But deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider, from the right kind of inverter to the size of your solar panels. </p>
<p>We are electrical engineers who are working on a standalone charger for small electric vehicles with the <a href="https://sanedi.org.za/">South African National Energy Development Institute</a> as part of the <a href="https://www.leap-re.eu/">Long-Term Joint European Union - African Union Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy</a>. The way the charger is designed resembles the sort of system needed for domestic power cut solutions. So, we’re able to answer a few questions for those who feel overwhelmed by the options. Our full and detailed instructions for designing a loadshedding system are <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UGY-cR-HHXbmjFXhyJVvWlrpax9CbAqw/view">available here</a>.</p>
<h2>What is an inverter?</h2>
<p>This is a key component of any alternative power system. It’s an electronic device that changes direct current (like energy stored in a battery) into alternating current (power for your home).</p>
<p>There are a few kinds of inverters. Some are grid-tied (synchronous) with Eskom’s power grid. They are typically used with solar systems that augment the Eskom supply. But they are not suitable for loadshedding solutions. </p>
<p>You also get off-grid (grid-forming) inverters, which form their own mini-grid and can operate during power cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small white box with wires coming out of it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An inverter system will look something like this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Suranto W/Shutterstock/Editorial use only</span></span>
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<p>We recommend a hybrid inverter, which can be grid-tied to augment supply and seamlessly continue operation as an off-grid solution during loadshedding. You want a hybrid inverter that can connect to the grid, battery backup, and to solar panels. To extract the maximum power from the solar panels, be sure to get one that has maximum power point tracking (MPPT). </p>
<h2>What size should the system be?</h2>
<p>This purchase should be a long term investment. The inverter must be able to carry the sum of all the loads that are drawing power at any instant in time and the battery must be able to supply the energy required. </p>
<p>To reduce both the upfront capital cost and operational expenditure, you need to decide what is essential. Lights? Your washing machine? The stove and electric kettle? Then you need to make sure they are as energy efficient as possible before you size the backup system. For example, old incandescent lights use ten times more energy than LED lights do.</p>
<p>This table lists a few typical household items and their power consumption. </p>
<iframe title="[ Power and energy consumption of household appliances ]" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Oc5GY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oc5GY/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="896" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Why do I need batteries for my system?</h2>
<p>It is theoretically possible for an inverter to generate electricity for household use directly from solar panels. But the supply from panels is intermittent and often not powerful enough to reliably supply power to the varying loads in the house. </p>
<p>To overcome this problem, energy is stored in the batteries. This provides a more stable source of power which responds to demand during loadshedding.</p>
<p>Battery capacity is specified as kWh (kilowatt hours) or Ah (ampere hours). This determines the amount of energy it can supply. A battery with a capacity of 5kWh can theoretically supply 5kW for an hour. But if a lithium battery is discharged beyond 20% of its capacity, it loses capacity and ages faster. A 5kWh battery therefore has an effective capacity of only 4kWh. It can supply 4kW for one hour, or 1kW for four hours. </p>
<p>As a practical example, if you want to power only 20 10W LED lights and a medium sized LED TV, drawing a total of 0.5kW, a 3.5kWh battery will suffice for four hours. </p>
<h2>Are solar panels crucial for a backup system?</h2>
<p>No. The batteries store energy to provide a stable supply to the inverter when needed. Technically, you can use the mains power to charge the batteries, rather than rely on solar panels. Solar panels are merely there to augment the supply of electricity and could give you a bit more range during loadshedding if the sun is shining.</p>
<p>But if everyone installs backup systems without solar panels, we are just using batteries to carry us through power cuts. That increases the load on Eskom outside loadshedding periods, as the batteries must be replenished. This will neuter Eskom’s ability to use loadshedding as a grid management tool. It could <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">destabilise the grid and lead to a complete blackout</a>.</p>
<p>And if, <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/tax-breaks-for-rooftop-solar-experts-weigh-in-on-how-it-could-work-20230214">as is expected</a>, the finance minister introduces tax breaks for solar generation expenses in the budget speech on 22 February, solar panels will have to be part of your setup if you want to benefit from these incentives. </p>
<p>No matter what Enoch Godongwana announces, we think this is a good time to make the switch to a solar powered backup system, for your peace of mind and future savings.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">South Africa's power grid is under pressure: the how and the why</a>
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<h2>How much does it all cost?</h2>
<p>Inverter prices are falling as the market grows, and vary across suppliers. Inverters cost about R3,000 (about US$165) per kW for bottom of the range, and closer to R7,000 (about US$380) per kW for top of the range. Most households will get by with a 3kW to 5kW inverter, if its loads are managed well, costing between R9,000 (around $US490) and R35,000 (about US$1,915). </p>
<p>Lithium (LiFePO4) batteries also vary in cost but normally retail for about R5,000 (about US$270) to R7,000 per kWh. Most households will get by with a 5kWh to 10kWh battery if the loads are optimised and managed well. So you’re looking at a cost of between R25,000 (around US$1,370) and R70,000 (US$3,830 or so) for the batteries.</p>
<p>Solar panels tend to range from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Again, they’re not crucial, but are necessary if you want the system to pay for itself over time. </p>
<h2>Can I install this system myself?</h2>
<p>No, unless you’re a certified electrician. The inverter needs to be installed into the distribution board and the cost will depend on how many of your circuit breakers need to be moved to the backup as well as how easy the solution is to install; installation typically ranges from R10,000 to R20,000 (just about US$1100). The inverter must be approved by the municipality if you want to feed back into the grid. Installing the solar panels is separate, and costs vary widely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider.MJ (Thinus) Booysen, Professor in Engineering, Chair in the Internet of Things, Stellenbosch UniversityArnold Rix, Senior Lecturer, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999492023-02-14T23:00:02Z2023-02-14T23:00:02ZMassive outages caused by Cyclone Gabrielle strengthen the case for burying power lines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510210/original/file-20230214-26-6xzi32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4261%2C2824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Another extreme weather event has highlighted the weak points in New Zealand’s critical infrastructure. As Cyclone Gabrielle ripped across the North Island, nearly <a href="https://www.todayfm.co.nz/home/national/2023/02/energy-minister-reports-225000-people-without-power-across-north-island.html">225,000 people lost power</a>.</p>
<p>The cause is relatively obvious: many houses and buildings are connected to the power grid by overground power lines. Overhead wires, a common sight around many suburbs, are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events. When the winds pick up, limbs and trees fall, and power lines are dragged down.</p>
<p>But one solution is equally obvious: bury the power lines. With the threat of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo779%22%22">more frequent storms of increasing intensity</a>, the risk to households, businesses and personal safety demands this option be seriously considered.</p>
<p>Power outages mean more than just the inconvenience of a dark house or a dead mobile phone battery. Many things we rely on, like fibre internet, home WiFi or even our ability to make emergency calls, depend on an electrical connection.</p>
<p>Loss of power puts refrigerators and freezers full of valuable food at risk. And many people rely on electricity for lifesaving medical devices in their homes. Battery backup only offers a short-term solution. When the power goes out, lives and livelihoods are put in danger.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1625006620240662531"}"></div></p>
<h2>Costs and benefits</h2>
<p>Perhaps the main argument against burying power lines is the cost. And it’s true, putting thousands of kilometres of cable underground isn’t cheap. The fact is, reliable infrastructure is expensive.</p>
<p>However, while overhead power lines are cheaper to install in the short term, they carry a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0957178711000622">higher maintenance cost</a> and are less reliable – especially in storms. If the cost to households and businesses from a loss of power is also considered, the economics of burying power lines become much more palatable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-gabrielle-how-microgrids-could-help-keep-the-power-on-during-extreme-weather-events-199665">Cyclone Gabrielle: how microgrids could help keep the power on during extreme weather events</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another argument against burying power lines is that in areas prone to earthquakes, underground lines are more vulnerable or more difficult to repair. This was certainly the case in the Canterbury earthquakes a decade ago.</p>
<p>However, studies have shown that better routing and reinforcement of underground lines can <a href="https://www.geengineeringsystems.com/ewExternalFiles/Buried%20Cables.pdf">mitigate that risk</a>. Major earthquakes are also far less common than weather events that damage overhead wires.</p>
<p>Earthquake-prone Japan recently announced a plan to <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/national/japanese-government-plans-to-remove-around-4-000-km-of-overhead-power-lines">bury 4,000km of powerlines</a> by 2025. In shaky California, one utility company <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/21/business/energy-environment/pge-underground-powerlines-wildfires.html">plans to spend US$10 billion</a> burying power lines to prevent fires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-warning-nzs-critical-infrastructure-is-too-important-to-fail-greater-resilience-is-urgently-needed-198872">Flood warning: NZ's critical infrastructure is too important to fail – greater resilience is urgently needed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Denmark, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands have all buried most of their power lines. Unsurprisingly, they also have the lowest “system average interruption duration index” (SAIDI) values – a measure of the average duration of power outages per customer.</p>
<p>All four countries have a SAIDI value of less than 25, meaning the average customer experienced a power outage of fewer than 25 minutes. By comparison, Auckland’s electric distribution business Vector has a SAIDI of 161.9; Christchurch’s Orion scored 57.4; while the country overall averaged over <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/commerce.commission/viz/Performanceaccessibilitytool-NewZealandelectricitydistributors-Dataandmetrics/Homepage">204 minutes per customer</a> for an outage.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510211/original/file-20230214-2190-ymrr9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Overhead power lines are also a risk to the workers who fix them after storm damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spend now, save later</h2>
<p>There are other good safety reasons for burying power lines, too. Even without trees nearby, power lines can arc in high winds, causing showers of sparks to rain down and potentially ignite fires. This happened in 2020 with the <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lake-ohau-fire-narrative-goes-up-in-smoke">Lake Ōhau Alpine Village fire</a> that burned 5,000 hectares and 65 structures and caused NZ$35 million in insurance losses.</p>
<p>Broken power lines carry massive voltages, which can maim or kill people. Falling power poles crush people and cars. Single-vehicle crashes into power poles also frequently result in critical and fatal injuries, and <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300779663/almost-300-homes-still-without-power-after-coromandel-crash-that-left-person-trapped">large power outages</a>.</p>
<p>Utility poles can obstruct or narrow footpaths, making paths less accessible, particularly for people in wheelchairs. Overhead wires are often cited as an eyesore, and <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/300234668/auckland-trees-an-eyesore-after-being-cut-in-deep-v-shapes-to-avoid-power-lines">trimming trees around power lines</a> is both ugly and damaging to the trees.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slippery-slopes-why-the-auckland-storm-caused-so-many-landslides-and-what-can-be-done-about-it-198984">Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Right now, however, the most pressing reason for burying power lines is visible all around. At this point, it’s not clear how extensively cyclone Gabrielle damaged the power lines, but it will likely take days or weeks, not hours, to restore power to everyone.</p>
<p>In the coming weeks, workers will fan out across the North Island into precarious locations, lifted high above the ground in cherry pickers to mend lines and restore power. The work puts their own health and safety at risk, and we could eliminate this danger too with underground power lines.</p>
<p>Clearly it isn’t a good option for everywhere. High-powered transmission lines that bridge large spans in undeveloped areas are likely not viable economic candidates for under-grounding. But the long-term benefits of burying lines in cities and towns far outweigh the upfront costs. It should be given serious consideration before the next “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/13/cyclone-gabrielle-new-zealand-declares-national-state-of-emergency">storm of the century</a>” hits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Underground power lines are safer, more resilient and less of an eyesore. The higher upfront cost will pay off in long-term benefits.Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990012023-02-06T19:04:07Z2023-02-06T19:04:07ZA tenth of all electricity is lost in the grid. Superconducting cables can help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508270/original/file-20230206-29-9qfshg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C34%2C4521%2C3032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Superconducting cables transmit electicity without losses</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most of us, transmitting power is an invisible part of modern life. You flick the switch and the light goes on. </p>
<p>But the way we transport electricity is vital. For us to quit fossil fuels, we will need a better grid, connecting renewable energy in the regions with cities. </p>
<p>Electricity grids are big, complex systems. Building new high-voltage transmission lines often spurs backlash from communities worried about the visual impact of the towers. And our 20th century grid <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/market-operations/loss-factors-and-regional-boundaries">loses around</a> 10% of the power generated as heat. </p>
<p>One solution? Use superconducting cables for key sections of the grid. A single 17-centimetre cable can carry the entire output of several nuclear plants. Cities and regions around the world have done this to cut emissions, increase efficiency, protect key infrastructure against disasters and run powerlines underground. As Australia prepares to modernise its grid, it should follow suit. It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity. </p>
<h2>What’s wrong with our tried-and-true technology?</h2>
<p>Plenty. </p>
<p>The main advantage of high voltage transmission lines is they’re relatively cheap. </p>
<p>But cheap to build comes with hidden costs later. A survey of 140 countries found the electricity <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-calculated-emissions-due-to-electricity-loss-on-the-power-grid-globally-its-a-lot-128296">currently wasted</a> in transmission accounts for a staggering half-billion tonnes of carbon dioxide – each year.</p>
<p>These unnecessary emissions are higher than the exhaust from all the world’s trucks, or from all the methane burned off at oil rigs. </p>
<p>Inefficient power transmission also means countries have to build extra power plants to compensate for losses on the grid. </p>
<p>Labor has pledged A$20 billion to make the grid <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/19/rewiring-the-nation-albanese-and-andrews-governments-to-jointly-fund-renewable-energy-zones">ready for clean energy</a>. This includes an extra 10,000 kilometres of transmission lines. But what type of lines? At present, the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-releases-30-year-electricity-market-roadmap">plans</a> are for the conventional high voltage overhead cables you see dotting the countryside. </p>
<p><a href="https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">System planning</a> by Australia’s energy market operator shows many grid-modernising projects will use last century’s technologies, the conventional high voltage overhead cables. If these plans proceed without considering superconductors, it will be a huge missed opportunity. </p>
<h2>How could superconducting cables help?</h2>
<p>Superconduction is where electrons can flow without resistance or loss. Built into power cables, it holds out the promise of lossless electricity transfer, over both long and short distances. That’s important, given Australia’s remarkable wind and solar resources are often located far from energy users in the cities.</p>
<p>High voltage superconducting cables would allow us to deliver power with minimal losses from heat or electrical resistance and with footprints at least 100 times smaller than a conventional copper cable for the same power output.</p>
<p>And they are far more resilient to disasters and extreme weather, as they are located underground. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-superconductor-38122">Explainer: what is a superconductor?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Even more important, a typical superconducting cable can deliver the same or greater power at a much lower voltage than a conventional transmission cable. That means the <a href="https://www.en-former.com/en/grid-expansion-series-superconductor-cables/">space needed</a> for transformers and grid connections falls from the size of a large gym to only a double garage. </p>
<p>Bringing these technologies into our power grid offers social, environmental, commercial and efficiency dividends. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, while superconductors are commonplace in Australia’s medical community (where they are routinely used in MRI machines and diagnostic instruments) they have not yet found their home in our power sector.</p>
<p>One reason is that superconductors must be cooled to work. But <a href="https://60454ac7.sibforms.com/serve/MUIEAEFyDhZLNkghlX6Gw-eH-MmyNTMzWrkmC_3oMfu6e9V1FlgPQffCbjVG9kpoBB3IKdn2D2tfgDUsW5e2HFjJViw4KHZh_72UZWL2Y6co2rQ13zomKnPv6TLPLdk7432r1rGkwC9VnsXM3TS8vRazFfIDomO3vyrGdUxoahlpCeKZGUqo92GCJuF03D_DwifPNcN9HesWYLdC">rapid progress</a> in cryogenics means you no longer have to lower their temperature almost to absolute zero (-273°C). Modern “high temperature” superconductors only need to be cooled to -200°C, which can be done with liquid nitrogen – a cheap, readily available substance. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="liquid nitrogen truck" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508273/original/file-20230206-19-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">High temperature superconductors can be cooled just with liquid nitrogen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Overseas, however, they are proving themselves daily. Perhaps the most well-known example to date is in Germany’s city of Essen. In 2014, <a href="https://www.innovations-report.com/power-and-electrical-engineering/superconductors-through-the-inner-city-of-essen">engineers installed</a> a 10 kilovolt (kV) superconducting cable in the dense city centre. Even though it was only one kilometre long, it avoided the higher cost of building a third substation in an area where there was very limited space for infrastructure. Essen’s cable is unobtrusive in a metre-wide easement and only 70cm below ground. </p>
<p>Superconducting cables can be laid underground with a minimal footprint and cost-effectively. They need vastly less land. </p>
<p>A conventional high voltage overhead cable requires an easement of about 130 metres wide, with pylons up to 80 metres high to allow for safety. By contrast, an underground superconducting cable would <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.041">take up</a> an easement of six metres wide, and up to 2 metres deep. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It's time the grid returned to public hands</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This has another benefit: overcoming community scepticism. At present, many locals <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">are concerned</a> about the vulnerability of high voltage overhead cables in bushfire-prone and environmentally sensitive regions, as well as the visual impact of the large towers and lines. Communities and farmers in some regions are vocally against plans for new 85-metre high towers and power lines running through or near their land.</p>
<p>Climate extremes, unprecedented windstorms, excessive rainfall and lightning strikes can disrupt power supply networks, as the Victorian town of Moorabool <a href="https://themooraboolnews.com.au/power-outages-of-concern/">discovered</a> in 2021. </p>
<p>What about cost? This is hard to pin down, as it depends on the scale, nature and complexity of the task. But consider this – the Essen cable cost around $20m in 2014. Replacing the six 500kV towers destroyed by windstorms near Moorabool in January 2020 <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/node/77081">cost $26 million</a>. </p>
<p>While superconducting cables will cost more up front, you save by avoiding large easements, requiring fewer substations (as the power is at a lower voltage), and streamlining approvals. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="transmisison towers down" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508279/original/file-20230206-15-xinvde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unprecedented windstorms in early 2020 took down six transmission towers in western Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ausnet</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where would superconductors have most effect?</h2>
<p>Queensland. The sunshine state is <a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/energyandjobsplan/about/supergrid">planning</a> four new high-voltage transmission projects, to be built by the mid-2030s. The goal is to link clean energy production in the north of the state with the population centres of the south. </p>
<p>Right now, there are major congestion issues between southern and central Queensland. Strategically locating superconducting cables here would be the best location, serving to future-proof infrastructure, reduce emissions and avoid power loss. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199001/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Donald Richard Mackinnon receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and serves on the Queensland Government Hydrogen Task Force. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Taylor receives funding from the DMTC and is the director of a superconductor startup company.</span></em></p>As we modernise Australia’s power grid, we should look to superconducting cables to save energy, cut emissions and future-proof the systemIan Mackinnon, Professor and Director, Centre for Clean Energy Technologies and Practices, Queensland University of TechnologyRichard Taylor, Principal research fellowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1975062023-01-13T15:58:37Z2023-01-13T15:58:37ZBritain is a net electricity exporter for first time in 44 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504429/original/file-20230113-18-ql76ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3347%2C1880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Britain's largest power plant, Drax in North Yorkshire, mostly burns wood pellets.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Silverman / Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Volatile prices in international energy markets sparked unrest throughout 2022, with governments seeking to reduce the impact of unprecedented price increases on their respective economies. As energy experts focused on <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/energy/research/centre-energy-storage/energy-informatics-group/index.aspx">how data can be used in the transition to a low-carbon economy</a>, we have closely followed how this volatility has played out in Britain. Full data <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3884858">for the year 2022</a> is now available and here are a few things we have noticed.</p>
<p>Britain (we talk about Britain and not the UK, as Northern Ireland is part of an integrated Irish electricity grid) saw a 4% drop in electricity demand from 2021 – that’s the third largest year-on-year reduction after 2008 (caused by the shock of the global financial crash) and pandemic-affected 2020. It takes Britain’s overall electricity demand back to values last seen in the 1980s, an 18% reduction from its peak in 2005. </p>
<p>This time two years ago, we stated that COVID lockdowns meant electricity demand would <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-use-is-at-its-lowest-for-decades-but-will-never-be-this-low-again-152360">never be so low again</a>. We got it wrong. In fact, 2022 was the lowest year by some margin (2% lower than 2020). We believe the main factors for this drop were the significant increase in prices, the wider media attention on this, and the wider cost of living crisis.</p>
<h2>From importer to exporter</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Britain and its electricity interconnectors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504434/original/file-20230113-19-etdgtm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Britain’s electricity interconnectors as of 2018. The NSL link to Norway, NEMO to Belgium and IFA2 to France have since become operational.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Crown Estate</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The earliest undersea high-voltage direct current cable (known as an interconnector) from Britain to another country’s power grid was laid in 1961 across the Strait of Dover to France. </p>
<p>In the years since, another seven have been constructed: two to Ireland, one to Belgium, one to the Netherlands, one to Norway and a further two to France. More interconnectors are under construction or proposed, including a connection with Denmark due to go live at the end of 2023.</p>
<p>Since 1978, Britain has always used these cables to import more electricity than it exported over a given year. Over the past decade, an average of 5% of the country’s electricity has been imported, helping to reduce the amount it needed to generate itself. However, net imports swung to net exports in 2022 for the first time in 44 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of British net electrical imports by year" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504475/original/file-20230113-18-lywqf1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In April 2022, Britain began exporting more than importing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grant Wilson. Source: Data from Elexon and National Grid ESO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking at the individual interconnectors, it was the link to France that caused this significant change. In 2021, there were 14 terawatt-hours (TWh) of net imports <em>from</em> France whereas in 2022, there were 10 TWh <em>to</em> France. This is an enormous swing of 24 TWh from a single point of connection, and represents the largest annual change in a single electricity source since the shift from coal to gas in 2015/16. To put 24 TWh in context, this is broadly similar to the amount of electricity Scotland uses each year, or the annual output from Britain’s onshore wind generation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of British electricity imports by country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504438/original/file-20230113-21-73mhi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">France suddenly took far more electricity from Britain than it sent back.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joseph Day. Source: Data from Elexon and National Grid ESO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what happened?</p>
<p>Over the past year, French nuclear power stations had many maintenance problems which led to significant reductions in their output. In August, 57% of the country’s generation capacity was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/france-braces-uncertain-winter-nuclear-power-shortage-looms-2022-08-30/">not being used</a>. Despite a modest recovery, as of January 2023, 15 of its 56 reactors were <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/france/20230105-how-france-s-prized-nuclear-sector-stalled-in-europe-s-hour-of-need">closed for repairs</a>. All this meant nuclear-reliant France had to import electricity from neighbouring countries. </p>
<p>This led to more electricity being generated in Britain than would otherwise have been the case, to satisfy the additional demand from France. So while Britain’s renewable generation was at a record level, its fossil fuel generation was also higher than in the previous year. Without the problems in France, 2022 could have been the first year that Britain’s wind, solar and hydro combined generated more electricity than its fossil fuels – a milestone that will happen anyway over the next couple of years.</p>
<h2>Wind is cheap, but your electricity isn’t</h2>
<p>Wind generation also recovered from its <a href="https://theconversation.com/unusually-calm-and-cloudy-weather-led-to-resurgence-in-fossil-fuel-use-in-2021-174573">relatively poor output in 2021</a> to reach a record generation of 77 TWh. That’s a 24% increase on the preceding year, when capacity increased by just 11%. This sudden increase highlights the year-to-year variations that need to be planned for to have a robust and resilient decarbonised power system, including <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/POST-PN-0688/POST-PN-0688.pdf">longer duration energy storage</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Offshore wind farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504450/original/file-20230113-16-qke0u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The world’s largest wind farm, Hornsea 2, became fully operational in August 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arild Lilleboe / Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Renewables (including generation from biomass) contributed nearly 40% of Britain’s total generation in 2022. This progress, along with the lower demand for electricity within Britain, meant emissions from the power sector were broadly similar to previous years (though would have been lower if imports from France had continued).</p>
<p>The rising prices of electricity and gas have contributed to a cost of living crisis, putting <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/energy-crisis/">millions in fuel poverty</a>. And though renewables and nuclear together provided over half of Britain’s electricity in 2022, the system is still overwhelmingly influenced by <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-so-why-are-household-energy-bills-only-going-up-174795">prices set by fossil fuel plants</a>. Reforms are urgently needed here to decouple the price of low-carbon electricity from that of fossil fuels.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Day receives funding from EPSRC under the GasNetNew project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from EPSRC under the GasNetNew project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geraint Phillips does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>And it’s because France had to shut many of its nuclear plants.Joseph Day, Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Energy Informatics, University of BirminghamGeraint Phillips, PhD in Probabilistic Supply and Demand Forecasting of UK Hyper Local Energy Systems using Machine Learning, University of BirminghamGrant Wilson, Lecturer, Energy Informatics Group, Chemical Engineering, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1959062022-12-13T19:02:18Z2022-12-13T19:02:18ZTo clean up Australia’s power grid, we’re going to need many thousands more skilled workers – and fast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500312/original/file-20221212-95362-f6pez3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C194%2C9850%2C6661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>To get Australia’s grid 82% powered by renewables by 2030 is a huge increase. At present, the electricity powering eastern and southern states is around <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem">33% renewable</a>.</p>
<p>To get there means a lot of work. Over the next seven years, it would be <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">equivalent to</a> installing dozens of large wind turbines every month, and tens of thousands of solar panels every day. </p>
<p>And work needs workers. To make this happen, <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/australian-electricity-workforce-2022-integrated-system-plan-projections-2050">our modelling shows</a> 15,000 more workers are needed by 2025 – less than three years away. That’s amid a skills shortage, an <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/2021-infrastructure-market-capacity-report">infrastructure boom</a> and unemployment rates at the lowest level in decades. </p>
<p>So how to do it? We need to train more skilled workers and give them more security. Renewable projects have tended to operate on boom-bust cycles when it comes to jobs. But to get where we need to be, we need to shift to a long-term boom mentality. We’re going to need people doing these jobs for decades to come.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Solar panel installation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The big renewable build will only work if we have enough workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How big is this issue?</h2>
<p>Big. Getting to 82% renewables and fast means we need to greatly scale up the electricity sector workforce in generation, storage and transmission line construction. </p>
<p>We estimate the current workforce is around 41,000, including 12,000 working in coal and gas power stations or supplying those power stations with fuel. This is only an estimate, as updated figures won’t be available until the federal government delivers its promised <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-workforce/australian-energy-employment-report">energy employment report</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-off-the-coast-could-help-australia-become-an-energy-superpower-research-finds-164590">Wind turbines off the coast could help Australia become an energy superpower, research finds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia’s energy market operator, AEMO, publishes regularly updated pathways to a clean-energy future. Now we have federal backing for accelerated timelines, the most likely outcome is the so-called “<a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">step change scenario</a>”. This scenario envisages nine times more wind and solar by 2050, to boost capacity to 141 gigawatts, and four times more rooftop solar. </p>
<p>Under this scenario, 15,000 more workers must be ready and able to build and operate renewables and storage, or build transmission lines, by 2025. </p>
<p>The problem is, these workers don’t exist at present. Many existing skilled workers are already paid well by major infrastructure projects, such as metro rail projects in Melbourne and Sydney and regional projects such as inland rail. What’s more, unemployment rates are the lowest in decades, and peak demand for labour to build wind and solar projects is set to outstrip the <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-09/employment-skills-and-supply-chains-renewable-energy-in-nsw-final-report.pdf">entire current workforce</a> in some regional areas where the renewable projects will be concentrated.</p>
<p>To add to the challenge, skilled workers tend to live in major population centres – but clean energy projects are virtually all in the regions. So the clean energy sector must compete with big infrastructure projects in the cities, which pay more and don’t involve travel. You can see the challenge. If we don’t get this right, the clean energy transition just won’t happen. </p>
<p>The common answer to workforce shortages is to train more workers. But here, too, there are challenges. Our skilled training sector has long been in the doldrums, with demand spread thin across far-flung regions and policy uncertainty leaving many gaps in capacity.</p>
<h2>15,000 new skilled workers are just the start</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/australian-electricity-workforce-2022-integrated-system-plan-projections-2050">modelled the workforce</a> needed to achieve three of the AEMO scenarios: the step change, the hydrogen superpower and the slow change. We also modelled an offshore wind scenario, using AEMO’s modified step change “sensitivity” which takes into account <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/offshore-wind">Victoria’s ambitious target</a> for offshore wind.</p>
<p>Under the step change scenario, we found the demand for skilled jobs will increase 37,000 from 2023 and peak at 81,000 in 2049. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jobs in generation, transmission construction and storage under different scenarios for the National Electricity Market.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But if Australia becomes a major exporter of renewable energy in the form of green hydrogen or green ammonia, as backers like iron ore billionaire Twiggy Forrest <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/forrest-strikes-huge-green-hydrogen-plan-with-german-energy-giant-e-on/">are hoping</a>, that’s a different story. It would require up to twice the workers of the step-change scenario in the 2030s, and up to triple in the 2040s. </p>
<p>That’s a staggering peak demand of 237,000 jobs, with an average demand of 110,000. To get there, we would need 34,000 extra workers within three years. </p>
<p>Where will the jobs be? New South Wales will be the leading state in most scenarios, with a demand for over 20,000 skilled workers annually until 2050 under the step-change scenario. Across NSW, Queensland and Victoria, the job split by technologies is very similar in this scenario: 37% of jobs in solar, 27–30% for wind, and 17–22% in batteries. The pattern is similar in the offshore wind and slow-change scenarios.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p>What about the hydrogen superpower scenario? This would change things dramatically. Here, the highest demand for renewable jobs would be in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. Compared to the step-change scenario, Queensland would add over 100,000 jobs, while jobs in South Australia would more than treble and Tasmania quadruple from 2,200 to 9,400. Relatively modest growth is projected for NSW and Victoria – 4,000 new jobs in both states compared to the step change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity sector jobs in the Step Change scenario by technology in the National Electricity Market.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We can’t just leave it to the market</h2>
<p>Coordinated action is needed to plan and implement skills, training and workforce development. Here, state and territory governments can build on the recent creation of <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-zones">Renewable Energy Zones</a> – essentially, renewable rich areas where transmission lines exist or will be built – to boost collaboration between industry and government on training strategies and programs. </p>
<p>Workforce planning should be brought into overall energy system planning, to help reduce the employment boom-bust cycle. Most electricity planning favours “just in time” construction, where infrastructure is built as it is needed. That means demand for labour is volatile. The NSW government has created an <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11/electricity-infrastructure-jobs-advocates-first-report-to-minister-for-energy-for-publication.pdf">electricity infrastructure jobs advocate</a> and created <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/about-energyco/our-purpose">EnergyCo</a> to co-ordinate the development of the renewable energy zones and maximise local benefits. </p>
<p>Given current shortages of workers, it’s vital governments take action now. Acting early would help future-proof our clean energy workforce and maximise benefits for regional areas. Even better, we could help boost numbers of workers from under-represented groups such as women and First Nations communities. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">How can Aboriginal communities be part of the NSW renewable energy transition?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay Rutovitz received funding for this work from the RACE for 2030 CRC, the Government of NSW, and the Government of Victoria. The Australian Energy Market Operator was a partner in the work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Briggs received funding for this research from the RACE for 2030 CRC, the Government of NSW, and the Government of Victoria. The Australian Energy Market Operator was a partner in the work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rusty Langdon received funding for this research from the RACE for 2030 CRC, the Government of NSW, and the Government of Victoria. The Australian Energy Market Operator was a partner in the work.</span></em></p>We’ll need to almost double our electricity sector workforce to build renewables as quickly as we need to. Where will the workers come from amid a skills shortage and infrastructure boom?Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyChris Briggs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyRusty Langdon, Research Consultant, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888112022-08-17T20:04:58Z2022-08-17T20:04:58ZTo hit 82% renewables in 8 years, we need skilled workers – and labour markets are already overstretched<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479549/original/file-20220817-12-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2800%2C1856&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evgeniy Alyoshin/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In just eight years time, the Labor government wants Australia to be 82% powered by renewable energy. That means a rapid, historic shift, given only 24% of our power was supplied by renewables as of <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/2021-australian-energy-statistics-electricity#:%7E:text=The%202021%20Australian%20Energy%20Statistics,21%20per%20cent%20in%202019.">last year</a>. </p>
<p>To make this happen, we must rapidly scale up our renewable energy construction workforce. Last week’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-ministers/meetings-and-communiques">energy ministers’ meeting</a> calls for assessment of the “workforce, supply chain and community needs” for the energy transition. The government’s jobs and skills summit in early September will tackle the issue too. While it’s positive the government is focused on these challenges, the reality is we’re playing catch-up. </p>
<p>Why? Because Australia is already stretched for workers, and it takes time to give new ones the skills they will need. <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/market-capacity-electricity-infrastructure">Our research</a> estimates the renewable energy transition will need up to 30,000 workers in coming years to build enough solar farms, wind farms, batteries, transmission lines and pumped hydro storage to transform our energy system. Most of these jobs will be in regional areas.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-renewable-target-is-much-more-ambitious-than-it-seems-we-need-the-best-bang-for-buck-policy-responses-186302">Labor’s renewable target is much more ambitious than it seems. We need the best bang-for-buck policy responses</a>
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</p>
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<p>In coming decades, Australia will invest around A$66 billion in large-scale renewables and $27 billion in rooftop solar and battery storage. This creates openings for industry development like the $7.4 billion market opportunity for an <a href="https://fbicrc.com.au/australias-7-4-billion-opportunity-in-future-battery-industries/">integrated battery supply chain</a> and manufacturing which builds on our strengths, such as <a href="https://fbicrc.com.au/australias-7-4-billion-opportunity-in-future-battery-industries/">wind towers</a>. </p>
<p>If we get this right, we can create new manufacturing and supply chain jobs and reverse the long drift of these jobs overseas. But if we get it wrong, skill shortages could derail the vision of a new energy system by 2030. </p>
<h2>What jobs will we need and where?</h2>
<p>Much of the debate on the energy transition to date has focused on technical challenges like integrating renewable energy into the grid. </p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://www.csq.org.au/renewables/#">new report</a> from Construction Skills Queensland points out: “The biggest challenge in delivering the (renewable energy) boom could be the scale of the construction workforce required.”</p>
<p>Across the eastern states in the National Energy Market, the construction workforce needs to scale up rapidly to build wind and solar farms, rooftop solar, battery storage and transmission lines throughout the 2020s. As the volume of renewable energy grows, our modelling finds the share of operations and maintenance jobs will increase, making up around 50% of all jobs by 2035 based on the Australian Energy Market Operator’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2020-integrated-system-plan-isp">roadmap</a> for the energy system. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479335/original/file-20220816-16-6grk0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This figure shows the numbers of jobs needed by technology and type, transmission construction, electricity generation and storage under a 2021-2035 step change scenario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AEMO 2020 Integrated System Plan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Notably, our projections include very few jobs in manufacturing. That’s because at present, most renewables manufacturing is done offshore. But as the country which pioneered <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-09-19/solar-panels-why-australia-stopped-making-them-china/100466342">key solar technologies</a>, we could harness these investments to build local production.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-new-deal-puts-emissions-reduction-at-the-heart-of-australias-energy-sector-188296">Historic new deal puts emissions reduction at the heart of Australia's energy sector</a>
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<h2>Skill shortages could cripple the renewables boom</h2>
<p>While it sounds simple in theory, the hard part is making this a reality. How can we best scale up the construction workforce in regional areas? How can we best leverage public and private clean energy investment to increase local manufacturing jobs? </p>
<p>It’s going to be a challenge. That’s because we are already facing widespread skill shortages in key jobs such as engineers, electricians and transmission lineworkers.</p>
<p>Australia is in the midst of an <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/2021-infrastructure-market-capacity-report">“unprecedented” boom</a> in infrastructure. Think of the huge transport projects like <a href="https://inlandrail.artc.com.au/">inland rail</a> and metro projects in major cities. </p>
<p>Our regions are already struggling to supply workers for these projects. Infrastructure Australia has <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/2021-infrastructure-market-capacity-report">projected</a> a shortage of 41,000 engineers and 15,000 trades in the next few years. This is a real worry for the renewables industry. Where will the new workforce come from? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="windfarm building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479553/original/file-20220817-12-mex1o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fuel is free - but building renewables needs skilled workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the labour market tightens, there’s a risk skill shortages will become a constraint on construction timetables. There are industry reports of bidding wars as companies vie to secure skilled workers by offering higher wages. That’s great for the workers with the skills, but it also speaks to the fact the pool of skilled people is too small – even before we launch this major transition. </p>
<p>People in many regional communities are concerned the renewable boom could follow the mining boom with a reliance on fly-in, fly-out workers. This approach overheats local economies and housing and ultimately leaves little benefit, as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/barnaby-joyce-port-hedland-growth-pilbara-economy-fifo-jobs/101016816">towns like Karratha</a> have found. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Road sign karratha" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479554/original/file-20220817-14-wtiwro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regional towns like Karratha have found the mining boom a mixed blessing. We need to tackle this to make sure the renewable boom has lasting impact.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What do we need to do?</h2>
<p>Governments will need to roll out regional programs to increase the size of this workforce, by creating direct training pathways to help school leavers get into the renewables sector. This can slow the well known “youth drain” of country kids to the cities. </p>
<p>Specific programs <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">could also help</a> First Nations people in remote areas into jobs <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-21/aboriginal-owned-solar-farm-completed-by-2022/100473610">close to their communities</a> such as in <a href="https://esdnews.com.au/bomen-solar-farm-helps-locals-get-back-into-workforce/">best-practice solar farms</a> and transmission projects. </p>
<p>We’ll also need urgent investment in regional training facilities, courses and apprenticeships. </p>
<p>While the federal government has committed to fund <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/new-energy-apprenticeships">energy apprentices</a>, we will also need more industry-government partnerships like the pioneering <a href="https://www.skills.tas.gov.au/about/current_projects/energising_tasmania">Energising Tasmania</a> initiative to train and redeploy new and existing workers backed by government support.</p>
<p>And we will also need skilled migration as part of the solution. That’s because the regions cannot supply the full scale of the workforce required and time is short. But regional communities will want to see programs encouraging workers and businesses to put down roots. If renewables become another FIFO-boom, we risk community backlash. </p>
<p>While the government has many other things to juggle, this is a big one. Without skilled workers, we won’t reach the goal of transforming our energy system by 2030. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-aussie-invention-could-soon-cut-5-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions-121571">How an Aussie invention could soon cut 5% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The article draws on research undertaken by the Institute for Sustainable Future which has been commissioned by the Clean Energy Council, Infrastructure Australia and the NSW Renewable Energy Sector Board. ISF is currently undertaking research on renewable and skills for the NSW Department of Education and Training and EnergyCo.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article draws on research undertaken by the Institute for Sustainable Future which has been commissioned by the Clean Energy Council, Infrastructure Australia and the NSW Renewable Energy Sector Board. ISF is currently undertaking research on renewable energy and skills for the NSW Department of Education and Training and EnergyCo.</span></em></p>Australia is already in the grip of a skills shortage. We’re going to have to solve that before we can start on the big renewables build.Chris Briggs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyRusty Langdon, Research Consultant, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1779822022-03-18T12:31:42Z2022-03-18T12:31:42ZA large solar storm could knock out the power grid and the internet – an electrical engineer explains how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452927/original/file-20220317-22992-n1ppek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1500%2C997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Typical amounts of solar particles hitting the earth's magnetosphere can be beautiful, but too much could be catastrophic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Northern_Lights_-_Aurora_Borealis_Norway_Ringvass%C3%B8ya_Troms%C3%B8.jpg">Svein-Magne Tunli - tunliweb.no/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Sept. 1 and 2, 1859, telegraph systems around the world failed catastrophically. The operators of the telegraphs reported receiving electrical shocks, telegraph paper catching fire, and being able to operate equipment <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2012/05/1859s-great-auroral-stormthe-week-the-sun-touched-the-earth/">with batteries disconnected</a>. During the evenings, the aurora borealis, more commonly known as the northern lights, could be seen as far south as Colombia. Typically, these lights are only visible at higher latitudes, in northern Canada, Scandinavia and Siberia.</p>
<p>What the world experienced that day, now known as the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/a-perfect-solar-superstorm-the-1859-carrington-event">Carrington Event</a>, was a massive <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-storms-can-destroy-satellites-with-ease-a-space-weather-expert-explains-the-science-177510">geomagnetic storm</a>. These storms occur when a large bubble of superheated gas called plasma is ejected from the surface of the sun and hits the Earth. This bubble is known as a coronal mass ejection. </p>
<p>The plasma of a coronal mass ejection consists of a cloud of protons and electrons, which are electrically charged particles. When these particles reach the Earth, they interact with the magnetic field that surrounds the planet. This interaction causes the magnetic field to distort and weaken, which in turn leads to the strange behavior of the aurora borealis and other natural phenomena. As an <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David-Wallace-29">electrical engineer</a> who specializes in the power grid, I study how geomagnetic storms also threaten to cause power and internet outages and how to protect against that.</p>
<h2>Geomagnetic storms</h2>
<p>The Carrington Event of 1859 is the largest recorded account of a geomagnetic storm, but it is not an isolated event. </p>
<p>Geomagnetic storms have been recorded since the early 19th century, and scientific data from Antarctic ice core samples has shown evidence of an even more massive geomagnetic storm that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123">occurred around A.D. 774</a>, now known as the Miyake Event. That solar flare produced the largest and fastest rise in carbon-14 ever recorded. Geomagnetic storms trigger high amounts of cosmic rays in Earth’s upper atmosphere, which in turn produce <a href="https://www.radiation-dosimetry.org/what-is-carbon-14-production-properties-decay-definition/">carbon-14</a>, a radioactive isotope of carbon.</p>
<p>A geomagnetic storm 60% smaller than the Miyake Event <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2783">occurred around A.D. 993</a>. Ice core samples have shown evidence that large-scale geomagnetic storms with similar intensities as the Miyake and Carrington events occur at an average rate of once every 500 years.</p>
<p>Nowadays the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses the <a href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation">Geomagnetic Storms scale</a> to measure the strength of these solar eruptions. The “G scale” has a rating from 1 to 5 with G1 being minor and G5 being extreme. The Carrington Event would have been rated G5. </p>
<p>It gets even scarier when you compare the Carrington Event with the Miyake Event. Scientist were able to estimate the strength of the Carrington Event <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-4980-z">based on the fluctuations of Earth’s magnetic field</a> as recorded by observatories at the time. There was no way to measure the magnetic fluctuation of the Miyake event. Instead, scientists measured the increase in carbon-14 in tree rings from that time period. The Miyake Event produced a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123">12% increase in carbon-14</a>. By comparison, the Carrington Event produced less than 1% increase in Carbon-14, so the Miyake Event likely dwarfed the G5 Carrington Event.</p>
<h2>Knocking out power</h2>
<p>Today, a geomagnetic storm of the same intensity as the Carrington Event would affect far more than telegraph wires and could be catastrophic. With the ever-growing dependency on electricity and emerging technology, any disruption could lead to trillions of dollars of monetary loss and risk to life dependent on the systems. The storm would affect <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/we-arent-ready-for-a-solar-storm-smackdown/">a majority of the electrical systems</a> that people use every day.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JncTCE2NWgc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The National Weather Service operates the Space Weather Prediction Center, which watches for solar flares that could lead to geomagnetic storms.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Geomagnetic storms generate induced currents, which flow through the electrical grid. The geomagnetically <a href="https://www.electricalclassroom.com/what-is-induced-current/">induced currents</a>, which can be in excess of 100 amperes, flow into the electrical components connected to the grid, such as transformers, relays and sensors. One hundred amperes is equivalent to the electrical service provided to many households. Currents this size can cause internal damage in the components, leading to large scale power outages.</p>
<p>A geomagnetic storm three times smaller than the Carrington Event occurred in Quebec, Canada, in March 1989. The storm <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html">caused the Hydro-Quebec electrical grid to collapse</a>. During the storm, the high magnetically induced currents damaged a transformer in New Jersey and tripped the grid’s circuit breakers. In this case, the outage led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/484311a">five million people being without power for nine hours</a>.</p>
<h2>Breaking connections</h2>
<p>In addition to electrical failures, communications would be disrupted on a worldwide scale. Internet service providers could go down, which in turn would take out the ability of different systems to communicate with each other. High-frequency communication systems such as ground-to-air, shortwave and ship-to-shore radio would be disrupted. Satellites in orbit around the Earth could be damaged by induced currents from the geomagnetic storm burning out their circuit boards. This would lead to <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/we-arent-ready-for-a-solar-storm-smackdown/">disruptions</a> in satellite-based telephone, internet, radio and television.</p>
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<p>Also, as geomagnetic storms hit the Earth, the increase in solar activity causes the atmosphere to expand outward. This expansion changes the density of the atmosphere where satellites are orbiting. Higher density atmosphere <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-storms-can-destroy-satellites-with-ease-a-space-weather-expert-explains-the-science-177510">creates drag</a> on a satellite, which slows it down. And if it isn’t maneuvered to a higher orbit, it can fall back to Earth.</p>
<p>One other area of disruption that would potentially affect everyday life is navigation systems. Virtually every mode of transportation, from cars to airplanes, use GPS for navigation and tracking. Even handheld devices such as cell phones, smart watches and tracking tags rely on GPS signals sent from satellites. Military systems are heavily dependent on GPS for coordination. Other military detection systems such as over-the-horizon radar and submarine detection systems could be disrupted, which would hamper national defense.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crew works on a machine with a giant spool laying a cable in the water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452924/original/file-20220317-22992-qysj2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The global internet is held together by a network of cables crisscrossing the world’s oceans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/germany-mecklenburg-western-pomerania-baltic-sea-undersea-news-photo/548151689">Jens Köhler/ullstein bild via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In terms of the internet, a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the Carrington Event could <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3452296.3472916">produce geomagnetically induced currents in the submarine and terrestrial cables</a> that form the backbone of the internet as well as the data centers that store and process everything from email and text messages to scientific data sets and artificial intelligence tools. This would potentially disrupt the entire network and prevent the servers from connecting to each other.</p>
<h2>Just a matter of time</h2>
<p>It is only a matter of time before the Earth is hit by another geomagnetic storm. A Carrington Event-size storm would be <a href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdf">extremely damaging</a> to the electrical and communication systems worldwide with outages lasting into the weeks. If the storm is the size of the Miyake Event, the results would be catastrophic for the world with potential outages lasting months if not longer. Even with <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/space-ww">space weather warnings</a> from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the world would have only a few minutes to a few hours notice.</p>
<p>I believe it is critical to continue researching ways to protect electrical systems against the effects of geomagnetic storms, for example by <a href="https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-21033.pdf">installing devices that can shield vulnerable equipment</a> like transformers and by developing strategies for adjusting grid loads when solar storms are about to hit. In short, it’s important to work now to minimize the disruptions from the next Carrington Event.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Every few centuries the sun blasts the Earth with a huge amount of high-energy particles. If it were to happen today, it would wreak havoc on technology.David Wallace, Assistant Clinical Professor of Electrical Engineering, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709682022-01-17T14:55:41Z2022-01-17T14:55:41ZWhy merging Uganda’s electricity sector agencies is a bad idea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440608/original/file-20220113-13-4s4elr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When multiple electricity companies compete for consumers, there is pressure to keep costs low and to improve service quality. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Early in 2021, the government of Uganda <a href="https://www.newvision.co.ug/articledetails/101131">approved</a> a two-year plan to streamline state-run agencies for greater efficiency. The first phase of the merger targeted 77 agencies under 18 ministries. By the time parliament <a href="https://parliamentwatch.ug/news-amp-updates/parliament-to-form-ad-hoc-committee-over-merger-of-government-agencies/">put the programme on hold</a> months later, 69 of these agencies had been merged.</p>
<p>Parliament stepped in because the government sidestepped the law and could face court challenges. But the programme is still on the cards once key issues are resolved. These include amendments to laws governing energy agencies and provision of financial compensation to affected parties and staff. </p>
<p>The push to reorganise state-owned enterprises can be traced back to a 2017 review. A resulting government <a href="https://publicservice.go.ug/download/report-on-comprehensive-review-and-restructuring-of-government-ministries-2016/">report</a> recommended “blanket” mergers across all ministries, departments and agencies. The aim was to save costs and deal with </p>
<blockquote>
<p>jurisdictional ambiguities, inefficiencies, obscurity in accountability, performance gaps, inadequate manpower and wastage of resources. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The report gave three reasons for merging entities in the energy sector. One was to align policy and laws. Another was to focus on solar energy rather than costly hydro-power projects. The third was to look at using geothermal energy. </p>
<p>Uganda’s Public Service Ministry recommends merging three separate companies charged with electricity <a href="https://www.uegcl.com/">generation</a>, <a href="https://uetcl.go.ug/">transmission</a> and <a href="https://www.uedcl.co.ug/">distribution</a> into one state owned company. A fourth, the Rural Electrification Agency, would be placed directly under the Ministry of Energy. </p>
<p>This would set the country back 20 years to the days of a single entity, the Uganda Electricity Board. Back then, the energy sector was marred by <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/358821468760763653/pdf/multi-page.pdf">political interference</a> in tariff-setting, investment decisions and personnel. The sector was also dogged by huge unpaid bills. Put simply, the sole utility was dysfunctional, ailing, and insolvent. </p>
<p>The board was broken up in 2001. The new structure sought to remove state subsidies and attract private investment. This objective has largely been achieved. </p>
<p>Merging electricity agencies again now will likely resurrect past inefficiencies. It will also undo gains realised since 2001. The gains include reduced risk for prospective investors in generation, transmission and distribution.</p>
<p>I have studied Uganda’s energy sector for the past 10 years. This included research for my recently completed PhD <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/profile/133/peter-twesigye">research</a> under the <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/powerfutureslab/">Power Futures Lab</a>. My research sought to understand structural, governance and regulatory incentives for improved electricity utilities in East Africa. </p>
<p>My view is that the merger of electricity sector agencies in Uganda should be stopped. This is because it could increase regulatory and investment risks. Instead, Uganda should focus on improving the management of state enterprises and incentives for greater efficiencies.</p>
<h2>The case for unbundling</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32335/9781464814426.pdf?sequence=10&isAllowed=y">rationale for separating market segments</a> – or unbundling – is that some parts of the electricity value chain are open to competition. This is true of electricity generation. However, transmission and distribution tend to be a natural monopoly. </p>
<p>The retail aspect of distribution is also potentially competitive. That is, traders or sellers of electricity may compete for customers.</p>
<p>Separating the market segments guards against cross-subsidisation between competing and regulated businesses. It also <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32335/9781464814426.pdf?sequence=10&isAllowed=y">avoids conflicts of interest</a>, which can arise when a single utility has more than one function. For example, a transmission company that also generates power could give itself access to the grid ahead of competing producers.</p>
<p>Unbundling also allows for greater competition as new players are allowed into the market. It can improve efficiency, innovation and management of risks. When companies compete for consumers, there is <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28853/WPS8235.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y">pressure to keep costs low and improve service quality</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/6564/wps4542.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">Evidence also shows</a> that managers in integrated state-owned enterprises might focus on what politicians want, rather than on company efficiency. Unbundling therefore helps to limit political influence.</p>
<p>New opportunities in the energy sector are underpinned by low-cost renewables and rapid technological innovation. To develop the sector, Uganda needs both public and private sector capital. Combining agencies could put investors off from financing infrastructure expansion. </p>
<h2>Improvements after unbundling</h2>
<p>An analysis of <a href="https://www.umeme.co.ug/umeme_api/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Umeme_Annual_Report_2020_Final.pdf">current data</a> from Uganda’s electricity distribution company – against <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/358821468760763653/pdf/multi-page.pdf">general reports</a> from the previous era – reveals that Uganda’s power sector is in much better shape than before. There is a significant increase in generation capacity, the number of power producers, financial viability, consumer connections and relative reliability. </p>
<p>Structural and governance reforms provided space for market-oriented ownership, management, regulation and incentives. This helped to improve the adequacy, efficiency and financial sustainability of supply. A recent World Bank <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/24869/WPS7788.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y">study</a> identified Uganda’s electricity sector as one of only two in Africa – along with Seychelles – with financially viable distribution utilities. This is key in attracting investors. </p>
<p>Progress in electricity access, reliability and affordability is disappointing, though. This can be explained by the poor state of infrastructure of the 1980s and 1990s due to civil wars. Added to this are policy trade-offs made in the 2000s to attract investment in generation expansion and achieve financial viability. </p>
<p>Uganda has subsequently been able to <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/Uganda_Auction_Report.pdf">attract</a> the second highest number of independent power producers (38) in sub-Saharan Africa. It is also on a stable path to ensuring energy security, with current installed capacity of 1,237MW and peak demand of 724MW. </p>
<p>This is partly because of increased transparency, competition and financial viability – which encouraged independent power producers such as the 250MW Bujjagali and over 16 <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/EEG_Energy_Insight_UCT_Uganda.pdf">renewable power projects</a>. </p>
<p>Gaps remain in electrification rates and supply reliability. But these are issues that require targeted policy solutions and incentives rather than structural rebuilding. Access to electricity is a social objective that requires a social policy. It can only be funded using a blend of public subsidies and innovative private funding. </p>
<p>The global power sector is experiencing a new wave of reforms. Innovations in disruptive technology and business models are making it possible to offer clean, low-cost energy. At such a time, merging or re-bundling energy agencies would be disastrous. It would dissuade private investment in the sector, the backbone of an economy aspiring to reach lower middle-income status.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Twesigye owns shares in Umeme Ltd but my analysis is not influenced by this, it is sector wide, and not limited to one distribution company. </span></em></p>A decision to merge energy sector agencies could depress investors’ appetite to finance infrastructure expansion.Peter Twesigye, Research Lead: Power Market Reforms and Regulation, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1700712021-11-17T18:26:36Z2021-11-17T18:26:36ZWhy the West should develop a clean energy strategy to meet the needs of the Indo-Pacific region<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432240/original/file-20211116-17-9esvun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1175%2C201%2C3745%2C3578&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China is currently in a better position than the West to assist the Indo-Pacific, due to geography, trade dynamics and its own clean tech sector. China's chief negotiator Xie Zhenhua, right, walks with John Kerry, United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate at the COP26 U.N. Climate Summit in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 12, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Indo-Pacific region, which includes 24 nations and stretches from Australia to Japan and from India to the U.S. west coast, is home to both the largest concentration of humanity and the greatest source of <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions">global emissions</a>. In 2020, the region produced <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/205966/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-region/">16.75 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> from the consumption of oil, gas and coal — more than all other regions worldwide combined.</p>
<p>Success in the global effort to keep global warming below 2 C and stop catastrophic climate change depends on the region to move away from coal and other fossil fuels. Yet at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, China and India proposed <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/how-one-word-on-coal-threatened-to-topple-cop-26/">countries agree to “phase down” coal</a> instead of “phase out.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cop26-draft-deal-text-struggles-over-climate-finance/">Insufficient financing</a> and the need to increase total energy availability — especially as more sectors become electrified — remain among the structural challenges to energy transitions around the world. China, however, is currently in a better position than the West to assist the Indo-Pacific due to geography, trade dynamics and its own clean tech sector. This could reorient economic networks and shift the balance of power in the region. </p>
<p>As a researcher in the field of green-industrial strategy, I am worried that the democratic world is increasingly losing ground to China in this emerging geo-economic arena. Unless the West provides an alternate network to help the region meet its energy transition needs, it risks ceding the economic alignment of the Indo-Pacific region to China’s government. </p>
<h2>Decarbonization</h2>
<p>A recent <a href="https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/24/BNEF-Hydrogen-Economy-Outlook-Key-Messages-30-Mar-2020.pdf">Bloomberg report</a> demonstrated that many Indo-Pacific states can’t meet their 2050 energy transition needs from domestic onshore solar and wind generation. Energy imports have long been a feature of regional politics, but the economics of the energy transition change existing dynamics, favouring fixed-grid integration over more flexible liquid energy imports. </p>
<p>It costs less, in many cases, to build large grids that deliver energy as electrons compared to the added costs of using an energy carrier like hydrogen, which might need to be imported, to meet clean energy needs. Already the Indo-Pacific is moving in the direction of being “wired up,” as demonstrated by the proposed 3,800-kilometre-long “<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-might-sound-batshit-insane-but-australia-could-soon-export-sunshine-to-asia-via-a-3-800km-cable-127612">sun cable</a>” to connect Australian solar resources with energy markets in Singapore.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/super-charged-how-australias-biggest-renewables-project-will-change-the-energy-game-148348">Super-charged: how Australia's biggest renewables project will change the energy game</a>
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</em>
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<p>The most efficient course of decarbonization for many East Asian states is to expand their grid connections to their neighbour’s, but this is marred by geo-security risks. Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam, for example, might be less willing to stand up to Beijing if most of their electricity ran through China. And does Japan really want to meet its renewable energy needs by routing power through Russian grid connections?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A yellow robotic arm assembles a solar photovoltaic panel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432086/original/file-20211115-13-lyp3qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fully automated machines at the Jiangxi Green Energy Company produce photovoltaic panels for export to the European Union and the United States.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, much of the industrial capacity for key green technologies and resources required for Indo-Pacific countries to tap their own renewable resources is based in China. A whopping <a href="https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2020/01/china-partnership-with-african-mining-sector">70 per cent</a> of global lithium cell manufacturing capacity is found in China, and Chinese firms are responsible for the production of <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/668749/regional-distribution-of-solar-pv-module-manufacturing/">71 per cent</a> of photovoltaic panels (through a supply chain riddled with the usage of <a href="https://www.shu.ac.uk/helena-kennedy-centre-international-justice/research-and-projects/all-projects/in-broad-daylight">Uyghur slave labour</a>). </p>
<p>Meanwhile, a recent <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/100-day-supply-chain-review-report.pdf">White House report</a> put Chinese firm ownership of global cobalt and lithium processing infrastructure at 72 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively. </p>
<h2>Export polluting industries</h2>
<p>China’s dominance in the production of clean energy technologies is also bolstered by the success of the nation’s trade networks. China is already the <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/trade_profiles_list_e.htm">largest source of trade</a> for most countries in the region, and through its <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, Beijing is increasingly providing financing for regional infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Thick white smoke and steam billow from stacks against a grey sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432084/original/file-20211115-27-1uchxgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke and steam rise from a coal processing plant in Hejin, in central China’s Shanxi province, in November 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Olivia Zhang)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The nature of Chinese infrastructure investments through the initiative has, so far, been <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/how-green-belt-and-road">damaging to global efforts</a> to combat climate change. China had been the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/28/china-xi-jinping-coal-pledge-unga-clean-energy-developing-countries/">largest financier</a> globally of coal plants, following a <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/international-trade-and-the-transfer-of-environmental-costs-and-benefits_854022818551">development pattern</a> established by wealthier countries (western and non-western), of exporting polluting industries to poorer nations. </p>
<p>However, President Xi Jinping, in keeping with his endorsed vision of <a href="https://environmental-partnership.org/wp-content/uploads/download-folder/Eco-Guidelines_rev_Eng.pdf">ecological civilization</a>, has made <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/28/china-xi-jinping-coal-pledge-unga-clean-energy-developing-countries/">improving the sustainability of China’s trade networks a priority</a>. China’s established trade networks within the region provide a foundation for an increasingly Sino-centric economic orbit, and will likely be flipped to distribute clean energy infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.</p>
<h2>Energy transitions</h2>
<p>It’s important the West develop its own green foreign investment strategy to provide Indo-Pacific states a choice of infrastructure as they transition their economies. Giving Indo-Pacific countries, especially energy-poor South and East Asian states, the option to purchase low-carbon technology and resources from a variety of sources will alleviate pressure to concede to Chinese foreign-policy.</p>
<p>Over the long term, the West must focus on developing supply chains in solar and and lithium-ion batteries to balance out Chinese capacity in these markets. However, there are a range of energy transition technologies that western states hold a competitive advantage in, and that could be the focus of a development strategy for the region — starting right now. Investments should, for instance, immediately focus on lowering the costs of exporting green hydrogen by maritime routes. </p>
<p>Australia and Canada both have favourable renewable energy resources to produce green hydrogen, <a href="http://www.chfca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/CHFC-Sector-Profile-2018-Final-Report.pdf">with Canada</a> a leader in the development of hydrogen fuel cells. </p>
<p>Many Indo-Pacific countries have opportunities to generate power from sources beyond wind and solar, with <a href="https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/the-top-10-geothermal-countries-2019-based-on-installed-generation-capacity-mwe/">Indonesia and the Philippines</a> already market leaders for geothermal. When it comes to wind, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/272813/market-share-of-the-leading-wind-turbine-manufacturers-worldwide/">U.S. and European wind turbine manufacturers share about 60 per cent</a> of the market. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/12/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-g7-leaders-launch-build-back-better-world-b3w-partnership/">In June</a>, G7 leaders announced the Build Back Better World (B3W) partnership, which aims to use their financing potential to help low- and middle-income countries meet an estimated US$40 trillion in infrastructure needs. </p>
<p>It is too early to speculate on the success of the B3W, but its visible actions have been limited to scoping tours in <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/01/china-belt-road-initiative-latin-america-united-states-g-7-build-back-better-world-investment/">Latin America</a> and <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biden-belt-and-road-rival-to-launch-with-five-to-10-projects-1.1678895">West Africa</a>, with another planned for <a href="https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/us-to-identify-projects-for-build-back-better-world-effort/6308139.html">South East Asia</a>. </p>
<p>However, the B3W could look to the recent financing deal between the U.S., Germany, France and the United Kingdom to aid South Africa’s <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/143773/cop26-south-africa-to-receive-8-5bn-to-stop-using-coal/">transition from coal power for inspiration</a>. The first B3W funded projects are <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biden-belt-and-road-rival-to-launch-with-five-to-10-projects-1.1678895">slated to be announced in early 2022</a>.</p>
<p>Decision-makers in China know that in the short term they are uncertain to come out on top in a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/07/sept-11-united-states-20-years-failed-foreign-policy/">hard power</a> competition with the U.S., and have identified economic dominance as another front of <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=LDLNDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA210&lpg=PA210&dq=%22be+ready+to+carry+out+a+war+which,+affecting+all+areas+of+life+of+the+countries+involved,+may+be+conducted+in+a+sphere+not+dominated+by+military+actions%22&source=bl&ots=4dZPVQoVxk&sig=ACfU3U3Hk2mZtlK44D8RoBxv-EfG9ANxsA&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=%22be%20ready%20to%20carry%20out%20a%20war%20which%2C%20affecting%20all%20areas%20of%20life%20of%20the%20countries%20involved%2C%20may%20be%20conducted%20in%20a%20sphere%20not%20dominated%20by%20military%20actions%22&f=false">strategic competition</a>. Subsequently, if the West doesn’t want to further cede the economic orientation of the Indo-Pacific towards China, it must increase its efforts to provide the region’s states with a strategic choice in how they meet their energy transition infrastructure needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonas Goldman is affiliated with the Smart Prosperity Institute. The views expressed in this article, however, are solely the authors own and do not reflect the thinking of the Institute. </span></em></p>Western democracies need to create a financing program to support the energy transition in the Indo-Pacific — and to achieve both regional security and climate goals.Jonas Goldman, Research Associate, Smart Prosperity Institute, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.