tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/electricity-supply-26631/articlesElectricity supply – The Conversation2023-06-02T04:01:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057512023-06-02T04:01:59Z2023-06-02T04:01:59ZThink of solar panels more like apple trees – we need a fairer approach for what we use and sell<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529012/original/file-20230530-29-q3c6n7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C161%2C1048%2C713&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pixabay</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As we race to decarbonise by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/14/climate/electric-car-heater-everything.html">electrifying everything</a>, solar panels – now <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/evolution-of-solar-pv-module-cost-by-data-source-1970-2020">cheaper per square metre than marine-grade plywood</a> – will do much of the heavy lifting. But if we don’t rethink how our rooftop panels plug into the grid, the transition will be unfair and costly – for both people who own solar panels (and electric cars and smart appliances) and people who don’t. </p>
<p>Australia has the <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-again-tops-global-solar-per-capita-as-world-installs-240gw-of-pv-in-2022/#:%7E:text=The%20new%20report%2C%20which%20sources,of%20the%20Netherlands%20and%20Germany.">world’s highest solar installation rate per person</a>. When solar panels generate more energy than a household is using, the excess electricity can be exported to the grid. Rooftop solar regularly provides more than a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/renewables-reach-record-68-7-per-cent-share-of-grid-power-in-australias-main-grid/">quarter</a> of daytime electricity across the National Electricity Market. At times it exceeds <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-meets-all-local-network-demand-in-south-australia-for-more-than-five-hours/">90%</a> in South Australia.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing fall in solar panel prices since 1970 to a point that they're cheaper than marine plywood per square metre" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529028/original/file-20230530-17-bktyo0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar panel prices per square metre since 1970 (assuming 18% efficient modules).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data: IRENA Database. Graph: Niraj Lal</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The amount of solar in our grids is affecting how the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and distribution businesses (which own the powerlines) keep the lights on. The measures in place are costing households that are generating solar power, but also non-solar owners and network operators. So how can we make the system fairer for all?</p>
<p>We suggest solar panels should be thought of a little more like apple trees. If you have a tree in your backyard you should be able to use as many apples as you produce. But selling apples for profit creates extra responsibilities, along with uncertainties about supply and the fair selling price. </p>
<p>Our new <a href="https://nirajlal.org/files/Lal_2023_TEJ_Give_a_little_to_get_a_little_DER_BoRR.pdf">research paper</a>, published in The Electricity Journal, outlines principles for fairness and proposes a <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529706/original/file-20230602-29-v1dr3.png">bill of rights and responsibilities</a> for connecting to the grid. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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<h2>What’s not fair about the current system?</h2>
<p>At times, the amount of solar energy being exported can be too much for the network to handle. </p>
<p>That’s why inverters (the box on the side of a house with solar panels) have settings that automatically reduce exported electricity when network capacity is under strain. Other mechanisms are also being put in place to allow AEMO to occasionally curtail output from rooftop solar to maintain power system security.</p>
<p>However, such measures not only reduce how much electricity is flowing from a home to the grid, but the <em>entire output</em> of the home’s rooftop system. There aren’t any fundamental reasons for this, just that appropriate inverter and control settings haven’t been enabled. </p>
<p>But this means a household, at times, can’t use any of the electricity it’s generating. In South Australia, the annual cost to customers of this sort of curtailment is already between <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148121005322">A$1.2 million and A$4.5 million</a>. This isn’t fair.</p>
<p>But it also isn’t fair when solar owners get paid to export electricity when prices are <em>negative</em> – that is, when other generators must <em>pay</em> to keeping exporting to the grid. This is happening more often, totalling <a href="https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/quarterly-energy-dynamics-qed">more than half of all daytime hours</a> in SA and Victoria last quarter. </p>
<p>Nor is it fair for distribution businesses to build more poles and wires to accommodate everyone’s solar exports all the time. Or if the system operator has to buy more reserves to cover for the uncertainties of rooftop solar output.</p>
<p>In these instances, all customers foot the bill whether they own solar panels or not. But non-owners are hit hardest when the costs of such measures are passed on. People without rooftop solar are completely exposed to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-25/australian-energy-regulator-market-offer-electricity-price-rise/102385284">20-25% electricity price rises</a> from July 1. </p>
<p>Some solar owners will hardly notice the increase.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-maximise-savings-from-your-home-solar-system-and-slash-your-power-bills-197415">How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills</a>
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<h2>It’s time to rethink the social contract for grid electricity</h2>
<p>Australia’s electrification will replace fossil fuels to run households, businesses, vehicles and industry. It’s expected <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp">rooftop solar will increase five-fold</a>. How should households with these growing distributed energy resources interact with the grid in future?</p>
<p>We reckon the social contract for grid electricity needs to evolve from the pay-plug-play expectations dating from the 19th century to a two-way engagement to support fairness for all. </p>
<p>To return to the apple tree analogy, if you have a tree in your backyard you should be able to eat as many apples as you’d like, and make crumble, cider, whatever. But selling apples for profit comes with a responsibility not to carry codling moth. And selling crumble or cider is subject to food safety and licensing requirements. </p>
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<img alt="Person holding a crate of apples picked off a tree behind them" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529029/original/file-20230530-19-vm7aep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">If there’s an abundance of apples, you can’t expect to sell them for a high price.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>And the prices? That depends on the availability of trucks and local market value. Maybe you or our government could pay more for trucks for everyone to be able to sell apples all the time, but it probably wouldn’t be efficient or fair. </p>
<p>The main distinction we draw is between growing for yourself and selling for profit. The analogy obviously isn’t perfect. Apples aren’t an essential service, apple trucks aren’t a regulated monopoly, and the supply and demand of apples doesn’t need to be balanced every second. </p>
<p>However, the principles remain – especially for a future where apple trees (rooftop solar) and apple warehouses (home batteries and electric vehicles) are everywhere.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-are-the-environmental-achilles-heel-of-electric-vehicles-unless-we-repair-reuse-and-recycle-them-205404">Batteries are the environmental Achilles heel of electric vehicles – unless we repair, reuse and recycle them</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing 8 principles for a bill of distributed energy resource bill of rights and responsibilities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529209/original/file-20230530-15-8sf2sq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The principles guiding a bill of rights and responsibilities for distributed energy resources. CC-BY-NC-SA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>A fairer balance of rights and responsibilities</h2>
<p>In our research <a href="https://nirajlal.org/research.html">paper</a> we distinguish between rights for passive use (using your own rooftop solar electricity) and responsibilities for active use (selling electricity). </p>
<p>No-one should be able to stop you using your own self-generated electricity (for the vast majority of the time). But making money from the grid will likely come with responsibilities to allow trusted parties such as network operators to manage your exports at times (a system known as flexible export limits).</p>
<p>If you’re charging and discharging batteries for profit, you will likely have a responsibility to provide some <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-closely-monitoring-households-energy-data-can-unleash-their-solar-outputs-and-possibly-make-them-more-money-196134">visibility of your expected use</a> to help the operator <a href="https://aemo.com.au/initiatives/major-programs/nem-distributed-energy-resources-der-program/der-demonstrations/project-edge">manage the grid</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-closely-monitoring-households-energy-data-can-unleash-their-solar-outputs-and-possibly-make-them-more-money-196134">How closely monitoring households' energy data can unleash their solar outputs and (possibly) make them more money</a>
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<p>In a country with lots of solar energy, prices for selling energy mightn’t be guaranteed all the time either.</p>
<p>We must think about this new social contract. If we don’t, electrifying everything will be harder, more expensive, less fair and more reliant on large-scale projects requiring new transmission lines, which are complex and costly to build. </p>
<p>The story of distributed electricity is incredible – the power is literally in our hands when we flick a switch, grab the wheel, buy a product. We have an opportunity now to make it work better and be fairer for all of us. </p>
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<p><em>You can see a summary of the DER Bill of Rights and Responsibilities <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529706/original/file-20230602-29-v1dr3.png">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205751/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article was co-authored by Lee Brown Specialist – Market Design and Development at the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), where he is leading Australia’s reforms of DER access and pricing. Niraj Lal and Lee Brown both work at AEMO, though the opinions in this article and associated research paper are solely those of the authors and not of AEMO.
Niraj Lal is additionally an Academic Expert for the International Energy Agency PV Task 14. He has been awarded funding from a range of organisations including the UK Government, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.</span></em></p>The need to limit output to the grid costs solar panel owners up to $4.5 million a year in South Australia alone. A bill of rights and responsibilities can make connecting to the grid fairer for all.Niraj Lal, Visiting Fellow at the ANU Centre for Sustainable Energy Systems, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852472022-06-20T19:55:25Z2022-06-20T19:55:25ZIn an energy crisis, every watt counts. So yes, turning off your dishwasher can make a difference<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469699/original/file-20220620-18-ej7oqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s east coast energy market has been on a rocky road for the past few weeks. It begs the question: how could the market change to avoid the next crisis? </p>
<p>To date, discussion has largely focused on the need to generate <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-grid-anyway-making-sense-of-the-complex-beast-that-is-australias-electricity-network-185127">more energy</a>. But there’s another way to ease strain on the system – by using less energy.</p>
<p>Last week, New South Wales residents were asked to find safe ways to consume less power during the evening peak, such as not running dishwashers until after they went to bed. Such actions, when deployed at scale, can make a big difference to shoring up short-term supplies.</p>
<p>But Australia has only scratched the surface of what’s possible when it comes to managing energy demand. As the transition away from fossil fuels continues, we should scrutinise every bit of electricity consumption to make sure it’s needed. It’s not about going without, but making the best use of what’s available.</p>
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<img alt="city skyline lit up at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C2986%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469696/original/file-20220620-22-vwbjkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Demand management is not about going without energy, but doing more with what we have.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jono Searle/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Getting smart about energy use</h2>
<p>Asking people to reduce electricity use is known in energy circles as “demand management”.</p>
<p>Sometimes it involves paying consumers to use less electricity. That’s because offering financial rewards is far cheaper than blackouts or bringing more emergency reserve supply onto the market. </p>
<p>The current system of demand management is currently geared towards major energy consumers, such as industrial plants. AEMO has <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/one-small-blip-of-demand-response-one-big-leap-to-smart-green-grid/">several</a> <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/learn/fact-sheets/rert-fact-sheet-2020.pdf">mechanisms</a> through which it pays big energy users to power down when the system is struggling.</p>
<p>But more can be done to encourage households to reduce their electricity demand. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.agl.com.au/campaigns/peak-energy-rewards">Some</a> energy <a href="https://www.energyaustralia.com.au/home/help-and-support/faqs/power-response">retailers</a> offer incentives to encourage households to reduce their use at given times. It <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/campaigns/peak-energy-rewards">might mean</a> people turning down the heater, using appliances outside peak times or tapping into rooftop solar power stored in home batteries instead of taking power from the grid. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-national-electricity-market-was-just-suspended-heres-why-and-what-happens-next-185136">Australia's National Electricity Market was just suspended. Here's why and what happens next</a>
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<p>Householders signed up to the scheme are sent a text message asking them to propose a reduction in energy use ahead of an expected supply shortage. Credits are paid if the household achieves the reduction. </p>
<p>Reducing household electricity demand will become easier as home appliances become increasingly internet-enabled and remotely controlled. This allows people to, for example, turn off a home appliance while they’re at work. </p>
<p>In future, it could even allow people to opt into a scheme where a retailer temporarily turns off appliances in thousands of homes when they’re unoccupied.</p>
<p>Currently, only a small number of households take part in such schemes – but retailers see much greater potential. For instance, over the next four years Origin Energy proposes to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/eraring-battery-to-be-built-in-two-stages-as-origin-targets-2gw-virtual-power-plant/">scale up their scheme</a> to 2,000 megawatts – capacity similar to a large power station such as Loy Yang A in Victoria.</p>
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<img alt="person turns off light switch" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C25%2C5590%2C3707&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469695/original/file-20220620-22-ey7rre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There’s huge potential to better manage household energy demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Net-zero and beyond</h2>
<p>There are many ways to improve the way we currently manage demand – and many of them can lead to lower bills for consumers.</p>
<p>Time-of-use tariffs, which offer cheaper electricity outside peak times, are a key potential measure. Some homes already use the lower overnight electricity rates to heat their hot water. But big energy users have traditionally made most use of these incentives. </p>
<p>As householders increasingly use smart meters – devices that digitally measure energy use – opting into these tariffs will become easier.</p>
<p>Appliances, lighting and heating connected to the internet can dramatically increase the broader power of demand management. Businesses could offer services to, for instance, monitor the wholesale electricity market and remotely turn on electric hot water heaters when prices are cheapest.</p>
<p>Managing energy demand is crucial for the longer-term transition to net-zero emissions. As sectors such as transport and industry become electrified or move to green hydrogen (produced by renewable energy), new supply challenges will emerge.</p>
<p>For heavy industry, reduced energy use – as part of a broader shift away from fossil fuels – will reduce business costs and increase competitiveness. A new <a href="https://energytransitionsinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Setting-up-industrial-regions-for-net-zero-Australian-Industry-ETI-report-JUNE-2022.pdf">report</a>, which we contributed to, shows a coordinated transition could also lead to wider benefits such as thousands of new jobs and cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>The challenge for AEMO is to integrate renewable energy generation and storage, and a far greater use of demand management, into its <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp">next plan</a> for the national electricity market.</p>
<p>And much can be done at a household level. Millions of Australian homes are costly to heat or cool because they’re poorly insulated and designed. All levels of government could support the proposed revision of the National Construction Code to increase energy performance standards.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keen-to-retrofit-your-home-to-lower-its-carbon-footprint-and-save-energy-consider-these-3-things-175921">Keen to retrofit your home to lower its carbon footprint and save energy? Consider these 3 things</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="homes under construction" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469700/original/file-20220620-16-83rfjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed standards for new homes could improve household energy efficiency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Russell Freeman/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Managing demand makes sense well beyond a crisis. Doing it well will go a long way to creating the clean, affordable and reliable energy system Australians need.</p>
<p>The potential for demand management only grows as renewable energy makes the electricity system more decentralised, and technology enables consumers to participate more actively.</p>
<p>The Energy Security Board is taking the right steps by <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-10/Effective%20integration%20of%20distributed%20energy%20resources.pdf">working on</a> issues such as flexible demand and consumer technology choices. The next test is how well the nation’s energy ministers embrace the power of managing energy demand.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-youre-renting-chances-are-your-home-is-cold-with-power-prices-soaring-heres-what-you-can-do-to-keep-warm-184472">If you're renting, chances are your home is cold. With power prices soaring, here's what you can do to keep warm</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Malos is part of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University's Sustainable Development Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emi Minghui Gui is part of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University's Sustainable Development Institute. Emi previously worked for AEMO from 2010-2012.</span></em></p>Australia has only scratched the surface of what’s possible when it comes to better managing energy demand.Anna Malos, Climateworks Centre - Country Lead, Australia, Monash UniversityEmi Minghui Gui, Climateworks Centre Energy System Lead, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1620852021-06-09T20:02:13Z2021-06-09T20:02:13ZCheck your mirrors: 3 things rooftop solar can teach us about Australia’s electric car rollout<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405282/original/file-20210609-3420-1pw4rk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C559%2C4826%2C2791&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/biden-electric-vehicles-infrastructure.html">Governments</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-strategy-idUSKBN27T24O">car manufacturers</a> are investing hundreds of billions of dollars on electric vehicles. But while the electric transport revolution is inevitable, the final destination remains unknown.</p>
<p>The electric vehicle transition is about more than just doing away with vehicles powered by fossil fuels. We must also ensure quality technology and infrastructure, anticipate the future and avoid unwanted outcomes, such as entrenching disadvantage.</p>
<p>In Australia, the electric vehicle rollout has been <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Electric_Vehicles/ElectricVehicles/Report/b03">slow</a>, and federal action <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-05/government-plan-electric-vehicle-australia-what-you-need-to-know/13124828">limited</a>. But some state governments are working to electrify <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-aims-to-turn-entire-8000-bus-fleet-electric-by-2030-20201202-p56jui.html">bus fleets</a>, roll out <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-24/fast-charging-stations-for-electric-vehicles-announced-in-sa/100160548">public charging networks</a> and trial <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/get-connected/electric-vehicles/smart-charging-trial">smart vehicle charging in homes</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s world-leading rollout of rooftop solar power systems offers a guide to help navigate the transition. We’ve identified three key lessons on what’s gone well, and in hindsight, what could have been done differently.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="solar panels on roofs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405284/original/file-20210609-15-1kg6ng9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s rooftop solar boom offers insights into the electric vehicle revolution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Price isn’t everything</h2>
<p>Solar systems and electric vehicles are both substantial financial investments. But <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629619307327">research</a> into rooftop solar has shown financial considerations are just one factor that guides purchasing decisions. Novelty, concerns about climate change and a desire for self-sufficiency are also significant – and electric vehicle <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692318302928">research</a> is producing similar findings.</p>
<p>When considering the electric vehicle rollout, understanding these deeper motivators may help avoid a race to the bottom on price. </p>
<p>About one in four Australian homes has rooftop solar, with almost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-06/what-happens-to-solar-panels-after-their-useful-life-is-over/100193244">three million systems installed</a>. Solar companies have often sought to highlight the low price of rooftop systems over other considerations. This has created consumer demand for low-priced, lower-quality products – and led to potentially <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-27/australias-obsession-with-cheap-solar-derailing-market-insiders/11139856">hundreds of thousands of substandard installations across Australia</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-the-road-again-heres-how-the-states-can-accelerate-australias-sputtering-electric-vehicle-transition-158218">On the road again: here's how the states can accelerate Australia's sputtering electric vehicle transition</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So what are the lessons here for the electric vehicle rollout? First, when planning public infrastructure where electric vehicles can be charged, construction costs should not be the only consideration. Factors such as <a href="https://bsgip.com/news-events/news/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-is-coming-so-lets-get-prepared/">night-time safety and disability access</a> should be prioritised. Shortcuts today will reinforce barriers for women and people with disabilities and create complex problems down the track. </p>
<p>Like rooftop solar, the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-018-0152-x">point of sale</a> of electric vehicles offers a unique opportunity to teach customers about the technology. Companies, however, can only afford to invest in customer education if they aren’t too stressed about margins. </p>
<p><a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/australian-smart-charging-trial-prepares-for-ev-growth/">“Smart” charging</a> is one measure being explored to ensure the electricity network can handle future growth in electric vehicle uptake. Smart chargers can be remotely monitored and controlled to minimise their impact on the grid. </p>
<p>The point of sale is a pivotal moment to tell new owners of electric vehicles that their charging may at times be managed in this way.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="EVs on charge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405285/original/file-20210609-23-1awvs3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric vehicle charging infrastructure should be safe and accessible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Plan ahead</h2>
<p>The uptake of rooftop solar in Australia has been a raging success. In fact, rooftop solar is now <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/ris/2020/webinar_ris_dpv.pdf?la=en">the largest generator in the national power system</a>.</p>
<p>This raises issues, such as how rooftop solar systems will respond to a major disturbance, such as the failure of a <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/04/01/researchers-target-rooftop-solar-in-hunt-for-grid-security/">transmission line</a>. A large amount of solar power feeding into the grid can also <a href="https://renew.org.au/renew-magazine/solar-batteries/solar-and-high-grid-voltage/">challenge</a> electricity network infrastructure.</p>
<p>In response, electricity networks have implemented changes such as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-17/solar-panels-switched-off-in-sa-to-stabilise-grid/13256572">limiting</a> solar exports and therefore, returns to solar system owners, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-25/solar-panel-owners-angry-at-charges-for-exporting-power-to-grid/100027514">charging fees</a> for exporting solar. </p>
<p>Such retrospective changes have been unpopular with solar owners. So to maintain reliable electricity supplies, and avoid angering consumers, it’s vital to plan where and when electric vehicles are charged.</p>
<p>If every vehicle in Australia was electric, this would add about <a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">a quarter to national power demand</a>. The rise in demand would be greatest near bus and logistics depots and ultra-fast highway chargers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">Owners of electric vehicles to be paid to plug into the grid to help avoid blackouts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Timing is key to maximising the use of a network connection without overloading it. For example, if everyone charged their vehicle in the evening after they get home from work, as this would put further pressure on electricity supplies at this peak time.</p>
<p>Governments and electricity providers should encourage electric vehicle charging during the day, when demand is lower. This might mean, for example, providing vehicle charging facilities at workplaces and in public areas.</p>
<p>Until Australia’s power grid transitions to 100% renewables, the use of solar energy should be strongly encouraged. This would ensure the vehicles were charged from a clean, cheap energy source and would help manage the challenges of abundant solar.</p>
<p>The question of <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-passes-road-user-tax-for-electric-vehicle-owners-industry-reacts/">road user charges</a> for electric vehicles drivers is another example where it’s best to avoid retrospective changes. Such charges are <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">necessary in the long run</a> and best introduced from the outset.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman's arm holds EV charger on car" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405286/original/file-20210609-15-1k75ldb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vehicle charging during the day, when power demand is lowest, should be encouraged.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Coordination is key</h2>
<p>Electric vehicle policy spans many government portfolios: transport, infrastructure, energy, planning, environment and climate change. Nationally, and from state to state, different ministers are in charge. </p>
<p>This makes coordination difficult, and creates the risk of policies undermining each other. For example, one policy might encourage the charging of electric vehicles from rooftop solar, to reduce carbon emissions. But because solar energy is so cheap, this might encourage more <a href="https://theconversation.com/think-taxing-electric-vehicle-use-is-a-backward-step-heres-why-its-an-important-policy-advance-150644">private vehicle use</a>, which worsens road congestion.</p>
<p>So policies to encourage electric vehicle uptake should not come at the cost of creating <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-forget-the-need-for-zero-emission-buses-in-the-push-for-electric-cars-160933">more attractive and efficient</a> public transport networks. </p>
<p>And new technologies can <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-that-relies-on-a-shift-to-electric-cars-risks-entrenching-existing-inequities-160856">entrench societal disadvantage</a>. For example, the rooftop solar rollout often excluded people who <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/religion/solar-justice-who-should-pay-for-the-grid/13376586">could not afford to buy the systems</a>. Without policies to address this, the electric vehicle transition could lead to similar outcomes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="traffic queues in Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405287/original/file-20210609-7455-1uh5vni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Encouraging electric vehicle use could worsen road congestion, if not well managed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons in the rear-view mirror</h2>
<p>As Australia’s experience with rooftop solar has shown, successful technology transitions must be carefully planned and attentively steered.</p>
<p>In the case of electric vehicles, this will ensure the benefits to owners, society and the environment are fully realised. It will also ensure a smooth-as-possible transition, the gains from which all Australians can share.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-jumps-on-board-the-electric-vehicle-revolution-leaving-australia-in-the-dust-154566">The US jumps on board the electric vehicle revolution, leaving Australia in the dust</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bjorn Sturmberg has received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for electric vehicle projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mejbaul Haque has received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for electric vehicle projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Lucas-Healey has received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for electric vehicle projects, and is on unpaid leave from working at Chargefox. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Jones has received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for electric vehicle projects.</span></em></p>The electric vehicle transition is about more than just scrapping petrol cars. We must also ensure quality technology, anticipate the future and make sure no-one gets left behind.Bjorn Sturmberg, Research Leader, Battery Storage & Grid Integration Program, Australian National UniversityDr Md Mejbaul Haque, Research Fellow, Battery Energy Storage and Grid Integration Program, Research School of Engineering, Australian National UniversityKathryn Lucas-Healey, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityLaura Jones, Senior Analyst - Economics and Business models, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1523602021-01-22T17:18:27Z2021-01-22T17:18:27ZBritain’s electricity use is at its lowest for decades – but will never be this low again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380218/original/file-20210122-21-1yba3pi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukasz Pajor / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2020, Britain’s electrical use was the lowest it had been since 1983. This wasn’t entirely due to COVID – <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994">demand for electricity had been falling</a> for more than a decade anyway, thanks to savings from energy-efficient appliances, moving industry offshore and consumers becoming more careful as costs increased. </p>
<p>But demand will bounce back after COVID. And the electrification of transport and heat, both critical to achieving net-zero emissions, will require lots more electricity in future. </p>
<p>We have looked at the data for electricity use in Great Britain (Northern Ireland is part of a single market on the island of Ireland) over the past year and we believe that there will never again be a year when so little electricity is used.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Britain daily electrical demand 2019 versus 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>COVID meant less electricity use</h2>
<p>Pandemic measures reduced the overall amount of electricity used by 6% in 2020, to the lowest level since 1983. When you look at usage per person the fall in recent years is even more extreme. To find a similar level of electricity use per capita you would have to go back more than 50 years to a time when black and white TVs were still the norm.</p>
<p><iframe id="VKMUO" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VKMUO/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Overall, 2020 was not a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/946270/ET_7.2_DEC_20.xls">particularly windy year</a> but wind still managed to generate more than a quarter of Britain’s electrical energy. Broadly speaking, generation from other renewables and coal were all similar to 2019. Reductions in generation came mostly from gas, while nuclear output also dropped to its lowest level since 1982. Net imports were also down on recent years. </p>
<p>From a climate perspective, major power production was coal-free for more than 5,000 hours in 2020 – more than half the year. This meant the electricity that was generated was on average <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/britain-got-its-cleanest-electricity-ever-during-lockdown">Britain’s cleanest ever</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="QRCEe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QRCEe/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The chart above and table below show that over the past decade, Britain has switched its electricity generation from coal to gas and renewables. The challenge is to continue to substitute the remaining fossil-fuels while at the same time increasing the total amount generated.</p>
<p><iframe id="BzetY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BzetY/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>How to power millions of electric cars?</h2>
<p>Britain will need to generate more electricity because low-carbon transport and heating rely on it. To get a sense of the scale of the electricity needed for transport, let’s imagine what would happen if all cars and taxis suddenly went electric. </p>
<p>Cars and taxis currently travel nearly <a href="https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/summary">280 billion miles</a> a year in Great Britain. Multiply that by the <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=noform&path=1&year1=2020&year2=2021&vtype=Electric&pageno=1&rowLimit=50">24-25 kilowatt hours per 100 miles</a> that the current best electrical vehicles technologies can reach, and you have a total of around 70+ terawatt hours of electricity needed each year (interestingly, a similar value to the total amount of wind generation in 2020). </p>
<p>Generating enough electricity to cover these cars and taxis – even ignoring other forms of transport – would take Britain’s annual demand back up to its peak year in 2005. </p>
<h2>From gas to electricity</h2>
<p>Unlike the trend towards much cleaner power generation, more than 80% of the energy used to provide warmth in Britain is still provided by burning fossil fuels, most commonly through a gas boiler. As with transport, decarbonisation will mean shifting a significant portion of this energy demand from fossil fuel to electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white box on a wall with copper pipes coming out of it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gas boilers are still used to heat most homes in Britain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">lovemydesigns / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Specifically, this will mean replacing gas boilers with a variety of <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-you-get-a-heat-pump-heres-how-they-compare-to-a-gas-boiler-151493">heat pumps</a>. These devices use electricity to extract ambient thermal energy from the surroundings – the air or the ground – and to “pump” this heat into a building. Around <a href="https://www.westernpower.co.uk/downloads-view-reciteme/128938#:%7E:text=In%202019%20BEIS%20reported%20heat,for%20Climate%20Change%20(CCC).">28,000</a> heat pumps were installed in 2019, though the government’s target is to fit <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution/title">600,000 a year</a> by 2028. Clearly a massive and sustained increase in deployment will be required. </p>
<p>Just as electric vehicles require less energy than petrol cars, heat pumps require <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0143624420975707">less input energy than their fossil fuel counterparts</a>. Despite this efficiency benefit, the decarbonisation of heat will probably still require Britain to generate hundreds of terawatt hours more electricity every year. The exact amount ultimately depends on the mix of different low-carbon heating technologies and reduction in heat demand from climate change and building improvements.</p>
<p>All this extra electricity will have to be carefully managed to avoid the network being overloaded at peak times. Demand for heat is currently seen as less flexible, and it always will be highly seasonal – people want warm houses in colder weather, during the daytime. This differs markedly from transport, which shows a much more consistent pattern of demand throughout the course of the year (notwithstanding the temporary impacts of COVID). </p>
<p>Managing that extra electricity isn’t impossible: users can be provided with incentives to shift their behaviour (why not charge your car overnight, or on particularly windy days when electricity is clean and cheap?), and <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2017.00019/full">longer-term energy storage options</a> are being developed. Innovations such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-heat-can-be-used-to-store-renewable-energy-130549">thermal energy storage</a> and <a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">active buildings</a> also aim to provide more flexibility to heating. </p>
<p>For those of us who study energy systems, it’s an exciting time. As demand from transport and heat increases, Great Britain will never again use as little electricity as it did in 2020 – and as this means using less fossil fuels, it’s something to celebrate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from EPSRC through the Active Building Centre Programme <a href="https://abc-rp.com/">https://abc-rp.com/</a>, and Innovate UK through the Regional Energy Systems Operator project</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Day receives funding from Innovate UK and is a Research Assistant within the West Midlands Regional Energy System Operator project <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/energy/news/2020/decarbonising-coventry.aspx">https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/energy/news/2020/decarbonising-coventry.aspx</a></span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Godfrey is a Research Assistant within the Active Building Centre Research Programme <a href="https://abc-rp.com/">https://abc-rp.com/</a>, and a PhD Student with the Energy Informatics Group at the University of Birmingham.</span></em></p>Per capita electricity use was higher in the 1970s than today.Grant Wilson, Lecturer, Energy Informatics Group, Chemical Engineering, University of BirminghamJoseph Day, Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Energy Informatics, University of BirminghamNoah Godfrey, Energy Data Analyst - PhD in Modelling Flexibility in Future UK Energy Systems, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1451682020-08-27T06:40:59Z2020-08-27T06:40:59ZSure, no-one likes a blackout. But keeping the lights on is about to get expensive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355028/original/file-20200827-14-1n3ndh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4905%2C3245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A new official report shows blackouts in eastern Australia’s grid this summer are unlikely. While that’s welcome news, it casts doubt on the wisdom of a recent government decision to tighten electricity reliability standards – a decision that will cost consumers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/2020-esoo">report</a> from the Australian Energy Market Operator, published this morning, is known as the Electricity Statement of Opportunities. It says no “unserved energy” is expected this summer and tight reliability standards will be met for the foreseeable future. This is largely due to increased installations of renewable generation, the return to service of a few coal plants after maintenance and lower electricity demand due to COVID-19.</p>
<p>For the first time, reliability was assessed against new standards substantially tighter than the last. State and federal energy ministers <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/23rd-energy-council-meeting-communiqu%C3%A9">quietly agreed</a> to tighten the standard earlier this year, and just last week <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/reliability-and-security-measures/interim-reliability-measures">the change was finalised</a>. </p>
<p>While electricity supply is expected to be fine this summer, beyond that reliability will deteriorate, particularly for New South Wales, as old power plants close. That’s when the new standard will bite: a grid without power cuts is <a href="https://theconversation.com/amid-blackout-scare-stories-remember-that-a-grid-without-power-cuts-is-impossible-and-expensive-102115">impossible and expensive</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Adelaide during blackout in 2016." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355029/original/file-20200827-16-1jsc1q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adelaide during blackout in 2016. Eliminating outages entirely is expensive.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Mariuz/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is electricity reliability?</h2>
<p>In electricity systems, reliability is a measure of the ability of electricity generation infrastructure to meet consumer demand. </p>
<p>When users require more energy than generators can supply, this can cause outages or blackouts. However, this is a rare cause of blackouts: <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/markets-reviews-advice/reliability-frameworks-review">more than 96%</a> are caused by faults or other incidents on the network, such as trees falling on power lines. </p>
<p>In the National Electricity Market, which covers the eastern states, the term “unserved energy” is used to measure the ability (or not) of the power system to meet consumer demand. Unserved energy occurs through “load shedding”, when electricity to large groups of customers is cut to keep the overall system running. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-carbon-emissions-fell-during-covid-19-but-its-the-shift-away-from-coal-that-really-matters-138611">Yes, carbon emissions fell during COVID-19. But it's the shift away from coal that really matters</a>
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<hr>
<p>The former reliability standard required expected unserved energy be no more than 0.002% in a given year. In other words, the system was expected to deliver 99.998% of the electricity consumers demanded. </p>
<p>The new interim reliability standard reduces this to 0.0006%, out to 2023 when it will be reviewed. The tighter standard will cost energy companies money, which will be recouped from customers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A $50 note sticking out of a power socket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355030/original/file-20200827-24-e2nuc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cost of tighter reliability standards will be passed onto consumers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why has the reliability standard changed?</h2>
<p>It’s important to understand the extent to which consumers care about electricity reliability over affordability.</p>
<p>Last December, the Australian Energy Regulator published a review of reliability “<a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/networks-pipelines/guidelines-schemes-models-reviews/values-of-customer-reliability">values</a>”. It found in general, residential electricity customers valued reliability slightly less in 2019 than in 2014, with the exception of customers in suburban Adelaide (presumably due to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/28/south-australia-braces-for-storm-that-could-be-most-severe-in-50-years">statewide blackouts</a> there in 2016). </p>
<p>So why has the reliability standard been tightened? Blackouts and outages are politically sensitive issues. Politicians, and the market operator for that matter, have strong incentives to ensure reliability, and yet <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-015-7957-5_16">don’t have to pay</a> to achieve it.</p>
<p>For this reason, the reliability standard is supposed to be reviewed and set by an independent <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/about-us/reliability-panel">reliability panel </a>. The reliability panel has not recommended an increase to the standard. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-world-first-australian-university-builds-own-solar-farm-to-offset-100-of-its-electricity-use-142972">In a world first, Australian university builds own solar farm to offset 100% of its electricity use</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Tightening of reliability standards is not a theoretical problem. In particular, we’ve seen the repercussions in the network sector – otherwise known as the “poles and wires”. Following network outages in NSW and Queensland in <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/this-is-no-time-for-energy-ministers-to-panic-over-reliability-standards-37320/">early 2004</a>, both states rushed in tighter standards for network reliability. This contributed to multibillion-dollar network infrastructure upgrades which consumers have been paying off for years. </p>
<p>Tightening of the reliability standard will similarly increase the costs of generation. From next year, retailers may be <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/retailer-reliability-obligation-factsheet">required</a> to enter contracts with electricity generators to meet their share of expected peak demand. Or the market operator may <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/emergency-management/reliability-and-emergency-reserve-trader-rert">secure more electricity capacity</a> when needed – such as by asking large energy users to power down, or bringing diesel or gas generators online.</p>
<p>In either case, the costs are passed on to consumers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers perform maintenance on power lines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355032/original/file-20200827-20-lyejm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consumers were still paying for huge infrastructure upgrades to poles and wires in NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason Lee/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Silver lining?</h2>
<p>There may be a thin silver lining. The promise of “demand response” measures – when electricity consumers reduce their electricity demand to help supply and demand match during extreme peaks – could lower the cost of meeting the new reliability standard. This is because with less energy being used, fewer more expensive measures may be needed to maintain supply. </p>
<p>The government-appointed Energy Security Board <a href="https://prod-energycouncil.energy.slicedtech.com.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/files/ESB%20Decision%20Paper%20%E2%80%93%20Interim%20Reliability%20Measure.pdf">has said</a> tightening the standard may in fact encourage more demand response measures. Supporting demand response is an admirable goal, but tightening the reliability standard is an odd way to go about it. </p>
<p>While the outlook for reliability this summer looks good, the changes in reliability standard ring alarm bells for the future. Consumers are generally happy with their reliability, and the vast majority of outages are not the result of demand outstripping supply. The changes don’t appear well justified or targeted, and they will come at a cost. Things are going to get expensive. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-failed-miserably-on-energy-efficiency-and-government-figures-hide-the-truth-123176">Australia has failed miserably on energy efficiency – and government figures hide the truth</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia. He has also previous been funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Kallies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An official report on Thursday said blackouts are not expected this summer. But consumers will still have to pay through the nose to make the system more reliable.Dylan McConnell, Research Fellow at the Australian German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneAnne Kallies, Senior Lecturer, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1423722020-07-14T19:58:59Z2020-07-14T19:58:59ZPower play: despite the tough talk, the closure of Tiwai Point is far from a done deal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347003/original/file-20200713-189212-tc97wm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4013%2C2263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marc Daalder</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Another year, another round of hostage-taking by the owners of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter.</p>
<p>As always, Rio Tinto has made the first move, <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300052786/tiwai-point-aluminium-smelter-to-close-1000-jobs-to-go">threatening to close</a> New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) in Southland unless some ransom is paid. A thousand jobs would be lost, with a further 1,600 indirectly affected.</p>
<p>In the usual script the New Zealand government caves in and smelting rolls on while Rio Tinto and its local allies pocket their gains.</p>
<p>Will this time be different? As with any ransom demand, the questions are whether the threat is credible and how bad the consequences of refusing would be.</p>
<h2>Will the smelter really close?</h2>
<p>Cutting the smelter’s power price by a third is <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/weekend-herald/20200711/282269552691758">apparently the demand</a> this time. Given the history (and the National Party’s unclear position) there is a real possibility the eventual outcome (after the election) could be another ransom payment and another few years of aluminium production.</p>
<p>A win for Rio Tinto could take several forms. The government could pay a cash ransom (<a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9016725/Govt-pays-30-million-to-Tiwai-Pt">as in 2013</a>). Or Meridian Energy (supplier to Tiwai Point) could give up a chunk of its revenue. Or the big five electricity generators could share the ransom among themselves as a means of staving off a fall in residential power prices.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-market-is-not-our-master-only-state-led-business-cooperation-will-drive-real-economic-recovery-141532">The market is not our master — only state-led business cooperation will drive real economic recovery</a>
</strong>
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<p>Alternatively, the Electricity Authority, always a compliant lapdog of the “gentailer” (generator-retailer) cartel, could provide the industry with cover by mandating <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120042792/vector-says-if-smelter-gets-transpower-discount-then-it-may-ask-for-one-too">price discounts</a> for other power companies too.</p>
<p>If nobody blinks, we will find out whether the closure threat was really credible. </p>
<p>We can immediately set aside the smelter’s “<a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/business/future-still-uncertain-tiwai-point">NZ$46 million loss</a>” declared for the past year. The accounts of both <a href="https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/D20C19F33E53B75FAC6213169B305973">NZAS</a> (the smelter operator) and <a href="https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/B36EEA70A36E3EABDAC9FFA50B0A413A">Pacific Aluminium NZ Ltd</a> are (quite legally) arranged to produce whatever profit/loss (and associated <a href="https://www.riotinto.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting/taxes-paid-report">tax liability</a>) the overseas owners want.</p>
<p>The final decision would be a strategic one for Rio Tinto: reputational benefits of being seen to punish a recalcitrant host economy, versus the loss of a renewables-powered smelter in an increasingly carbon-conscious world.</p>
<p>It really could go either way and I’m laying no bets.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347005/original/file-20200713-46-erkb9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable-energy-powered aluminium: could a carbon-conscious world influence Rio Tinto’s calculations?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marc Daalder</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How could we use the extra electricity?</h2>
<p>We can, however, get a handle on possible policy responses to actual closure. The biggest impact, from which potentially big gains could come, is the freed-up electricity from the Manapouri power station.</p>
<p>Getting that amount of electricity (<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/420885/tiwai-point-smelter-closure-what-happens-to-the-electricity-sector#">13% of the country’s entire consumption</a>) to anywhere other than Bluff is not a simple matter, because it will need a new transmission line from Manapouri to Benmore or Christchurch. That line has never been built, and to build it now will take time and money. </p>
<p>Transpower is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117888748/surplus-power-from-smelter-could-be-freedup-for-south-island-in-2022">reported</a> to be finally getting to work, but don’t expect an immediate result.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unless-we-improve-the-law-history-shows-rushing-shovel-ready-projects-comes-with-real-risk-141530">Unless we improve the law, history shows rushing shovel-ready projects comes with real risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>You might well think that building that line decades ago would have provided the New Zealand government with an essential bargaining chip (the “outside option” of reallocating the electricity if the smelter closed).</p>
<p>Certainly by failing to take that step, the state has declared a lack of will to resist ransom demands, which probably gave the smelter owners confidence in repeating those demands.</p>
<p>Suppose the line is built, what gain could residential consumers see? Well, it depends.</p>
<p>If the smelter’s contract is simply ended and Meridian is left looking for a new buyer, this might break the big-generator cartel and bring prices down. Or it might just lead to collective market manipulation to protect their share prices. (Contact is <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2007/S00160/contact-says-smelter-closure-is-disappointing.htm">already talking</a> of pausing a new geothermal project.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347006/original/file-20200713-189216-vn1tqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tiwai Point control room: 13% of New Zealand’s electricity flows through the smelter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marc Daalder</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What if the government became a player?</h2>
<p>Alternatively, suppose the government summons up the courage to compulsorily acquire Rio Tinto’s contract rights (which run to 2030) and thus becomes the “single buyer” of 5,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity a year.</p>
<p>The government would then be able to dispose of this electricity as it sees fit. If it were to put the material well-being of households (in particular the poor ones) at the top of its priorities, it could supply those consumers with a fair chunk of their annual electricity consumption at a price far below the regular market wholesale price.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">Owners of electric vehicles to be paid to plug into the grid to help avoid blackouts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It could do this even within the current (deeply flawed) electricity market structure, leaving supply and demand to play out for the rest of the 40,000 GWh of annual generation.</p>
<p>Readers with long memories may recall the 1992 Hydro New Zealand proposal, which sought to protect vulnerable consumers from rising prices under corporatisation and privatisation by locking in just such a long-term, low-price “vesting contract”.</p>
<p>There is, however, a softer option open to the government, which would mollify Southland while leaving the crucial transmission line unbuilt. </p>
<p>That is the time-honoured Think Big tradition of installing some new, heavily subsidised giant electricity-using industry at Bluff – perhaps a “green hydrogen” plant, perhaps a data centre or even a Tesla “<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122100737/tesla-gigafactory-or-another-smelter-among-ideas-floated-for-tiwai-point">gigafactory</a>”.</p>
<p>Remember, the government has a big stake in the profitability of three of the big generators. Watch this space – and don’t expect your power bills to come down any time soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Bertram does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are many possible outcomes from the closure of the smelter – just don’t expect lower electricity prices to be one of them.Geoff Bertram, Senior Associate, Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1406402020-06-17T04:24:02Z2020-06-17T04:24:02ZEnergy giants want to thwart reforms that would help renewables and lower power bills<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342044/original/file-20200616-23266-3qzulm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C5534%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s energy market is outdated. It doesn’t encourage competition and that’s holding back the <a href="http://www.unswlawjournal.unsw.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/39-4-6.pdf">transition</a> to renewable energy. Important reforms to modernise the market are on the way, but big energy companies are seeking to use the cover of COVID-19 to prevent the change.</p>
<p>This is bad for consumers, and for climate action. Reform would help create a modern grid <a href="https://relp.lexxion.eu/article/RELP/2011/2/44">designed</a> around clean energy, pushing coal-fired generators to retire earlier. Over time, it would also bring down power costs for households and business.</p>
<p>Renewable energy is the cheapest form of new electricity. It’s far better for the environment than coal and gas, and can deliver reliable supplies when backed by batteries and other energy storage. </p>
<p>Instead of delaying reform, Australia should be advancing it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342051/original/file-20200616-23235-82b1p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wind and solar energy is better for the environment, and consumers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Wimborne/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s this all about?</h2>
<p>Regulators and governments recognise the need to modernise the rules governing the National Electricity Market. That market, established in 1998, supplies all Australian jurisdictions except Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>Reliable electricity requires that supply and demand be kept in balance. This balance is primarily provided by a system known as the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content//Five-Minute-Settlement-directions-paper-fact-sheet-FINAL.PDF">wholesale spot market</a>. Every five minutes, electricity generators bid into the spot market, specifying how much energy they will provide at a certain price. </p>
<p>An entire <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/post-2025-market-design-national-electricity-market-nem">redesign</a> of the market rules is scheduled for 2025. This should make the market work efficiently and reliably as coal retires and is replaced by renewable energy.</p>
<p>In the meantime, one important rule change is due to start in July next year, known as “<a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/rule-changes/five-minute-settlement">5-minute settlement</a>”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/matt-canavan-says-australia-doesnt-subsidise-the-fossil-fuel-industry-an-expert-says-it-does-131200">Matt Canavan says Australia doesn't subsidise the fossil fuel industry, an expert says it does</a>
</strong>
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<p>Currently, electricity is sold and sent out from generators in 5-minute blocks. But the actual price paid for this electricity in the wholesale market is averaged every 30 minutes. This means there are six dispatch periods, each with their own price, which are then averaged out when the market is settled. </p>
<p>This strange design has enabled big electricity generators to <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0140988316301839">game the market</a>. One method involves placing high bids in the first interval, then placing low or even negative bids in the remaining five intervals. This ensures that electricity from the big generators is purchased, but that they and all other generators receive an artificially high average price for the whole 30-minute period.</p>
<p>In 2017, the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/97d09813-a07c-49c3-9c55-288baf8936af/ERC0201-Five-Minute-Settlement-Final-Determination.PDF">decided</a> to replace 30-minute settlement with 5-minute settlement.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content//Five-Minute-Settlement-directions-paper-fact-sheet-FINAL.PDF">The commission says</a> the current system was adopted more than 20 years ago due to technological barriers which have since been overcome. It argues moving to 5-minute settlement would better reflect the value to consumers of fast-response technologies, such as batteries storing renewable energy and so-called “demand response” (a concept we’ll explain later).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342058/original/file-20200616-23247-kd09nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The rule change would reduce power costs for consumers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Esposito/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/rule-changes/five-minute-settlement">According to</a> the AEMC, the rule change would lead to lower wholesale costs, cutting electricity prices for consumers.</p>
<p>But on March 19 this year, the Australian Energy Council, which represents most coal-fired power stations and the big three electricity retailers, sought to delay the reform. It wrote to federal energy minister Angus Taylor and his state counterparts, arguing the pandemic means energy companies must focus on “<a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/covid-19-brings-reform-challenges/">critical supply and reliabilty</a>” issues, rather than implementing the rule change. </p>
<p>But energy consumption has <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/national-energy-emissions-audit-april-2020">barely changed</a> during the pandemic, the Australia Institute’s national energy emissions audit shows. So delaying the reform to deal with supply and reliability issues appears unjustified.</p>
<p>Despite this, the Australian Energy Market Operator has proposed delaying the change for a year. Our <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/delaying-energy-market-reform-increase-costs-slow-transition-renewables-think-tank-industry">submission</a>, endorsed by energy and technology leaders, opposes the delay. </p>
<p>Moves by regulators to delay another <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/regulators-flag-delays-to-16-energy-reform-projects-as-fossil-fuel-interests-dig-in-15284/">16 market reforms</a> due to COVID-19 also seem to be afoot.</p>
<h2>Change is possible</h2>
<p>Last week, one big rule change to the National Electricity Market <em>did</em> proceed as planned. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/customers-paid-for-reducing-electricity-demand-radical-change/12343790">It allows</a> “demand response” energy trading from 2021.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/finkel%E2%80%99s-forgotten-finding-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%98negawatts%E2%80%99">Demand response</a> involves reducing energy consumption during peaks in demand, such as during heatwaves. Basically, the rule means big energy users, such as smelters and manufacturing plants, could power down in these periods, and be paid for doing so.</p>
<p>Technology pioneers such as battery entrepreneur <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/covid-19-may-delay-national-electricity-market-reform-20200419-p54l3s">Simon Hackett</a> and Atlassian chief <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ambitious-energy-reforms-set-to-cut-household-power-bills-20200611-p551rs.html">Mike Cannon-Brookes</a> have backed this change. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1267305793033867265"}"></div></p>
<p>Australia has successfully used demand response to provide <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2019/03/demand-response-rert-trial-year-1-report.pdf">emergency</a> electricity capacity and <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/demand-response-worth-half-a-liddell-to-energy-queensland-20180404-h0ybij">other</a> <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/rule-changes/demand-response-mechanism">benefits</a>. But it’s never been unleashed in the wholesale energy market.</p>
<p>The rule change doesn’t involve smaller users such as households. But it’s a promising start that creates new competition for fossil fuel generators and allows energy users to help make the grid more reliable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-demand-response-energy-rules-sound-good-but-the-devil-is-in-the-hugely-complicated-details-120676">New demand-response energy rules sound good, but the devil is in the (hugely complicated) details</a>
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<p>Political warfare over climate policy has held back Australia, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-8500.12328">and the electricity market</a>, for more than a decade. But energy reform that encourages greater market competition can readily be supported by political conservatives.</p>
<p>The demand-response rule change is a clear example: it has been <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/wholesale-demand-response-help-lower-costs-and-strengthen-energy">championed by Taylor</a> and his predecessors <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-13/negawatts-touted-as-solution-to-growing-energy/8707232">Josh Frydenberg</a> and <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/coalition-seeks-deal-to-cut-power-demand/news-story/5b7a3dd86ddf11c91d5f817405bb43a9">Greg Hunt</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Newly built renewable electricity is cheaper than new coal-fired power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Petr Josek/Reuters</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Getting future-ready</h2>
<p>Once the health crisis is over and economic recovery has begun, Australia will need the economic and social benefits of electricity market reform even more than before.</p>
<p>Such reform “<a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/energy-reform-after-covid-19">stimulus</a>” would help ready the grid for the inevitable retirement of coal-fired power stations, such as Liddell in 2023. </p>
<p>It would also align with state government investments in renewable energy, and boost private investment in new generation (which has <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/cec-calls-for-action-on-grid-issues-as-renewables-investment-cut-in-half-28289/">recently slumped</a>) and <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/05/26/coronavirus-manufacturing-industry/">large-scale batteries</a>.</p>
<p>Electricity remains Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-to-attend-climate-summit-empty-handed-despite-un-pleas-to-come-with-a-plan-123187">highest-polluting sector</a>. Around the world, electricity markets are planning the <a href="https://www.ren21.net/renewables-report-launch/">transition</a> from high to low emissions. </p>
<p>Delaying reform in Australia would be a major setback on the path to our essential energy transition.</p>
<p><em>Richie Merzian, Climate & Energy Program Director at The Australia Institute, contributed to this piece.</em></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-stimulus-spending-to-the-test-4-ways-a-smart-government-can-create-jobs-and-cut-emissions-140339">Putting stimulus spending to the test: 4 ways a smart government can create jobs and cut emissions</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel J Cass is Energy Policy & Regulatory Lead at the Australia Institute and is on the board of Solar Head of State.</span></em></p>The rules governing Australia’s electricity market are more than 20 years old and no longer serve consumers, or climate action. But big energy companies are using COVID-19 to delay reform.Daniel J Cass, Research Affiliate, Sydney Business School, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1397252020-06-04T16:21:19Z2020-06-04T16:21:19ZCybercriminals are now targeting critical electricity infrastructure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339803/original/file-20200604-67347-3n60j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">cwales / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amid the constant stream of news on the coronavirus pandemic, one event passed relatively unnoticed. On the afternoon of May 14, a company named Elexon was <a href="https://www.elexon.co.uk/article/update-on-14-may-cyber-attack/">hacked</a>. You probably haven’t heard of it, but Elexon plays a key role in the UK’s electricity market, and though the attack did not affect the electricity supply itself, as an academic who researches <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Henri_Van_Soest">cybersecurity in the electricity system</a>, I am worried. This near miss reveals just how vulnerable our critical infrastructure is to such attacks – especially during a pandemic.</p>
<p>Elexon plays an important role in the operation of the country’s electricity system. In such a system, the levels of supply and demand need to be balanced at all times. Otherwise, the system becomes unstable, which can lead to blackouts. To avoid this, Elexon compares the amount of electricity that generators promise they will produce, with the amount of electricity that suppliers say will be consumed. Where needed, the company determines the difference in price and transfers funds between the parties on either side of the transaction.</p>
<p>The lockdown has made Elexon’s role significantly more difficult. Usually, electricity demand is pretty fixed, as people broadly go to work, return home, cook dinner and watch TV at roughly the same hour every day. However, the lockdown has <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-analysed-electricity-demand-and-found-coronavirus-has-turned-weekdays-into-weekends-134606">ripped up the rule book</a> on all this. Despite many people staying at home, electricity demand has also dropped by about 20% compared to this time last year due to the closure of factories and businesses. In sum, it is a lot harder to correctly predict demand. </p>
<p>The drop in demand also means that less electricity is needed. Because wind and solar power are now the cheapest forms of electricity available, coal and gas plants <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-renewable-energy-overtakes-fossil-fuels-in-powering-britain-11991953">are generating</a> less, and there has lately been a big increase in renewable energy sources in the overall mix. However, wind and solar power experience large swings in supply, depending on whether the sun shines and the wind blows. This again makes supply and demand more complicated to manage. </p>
<h2>Held to ransom</h2>
<p>The Elexon attack used ransomware, in which a computer virus encrypts the contents of a computer, and it can only be decrypted after a ransom has been paid, typically in bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. The most famous ransomware attack is no doubt the 2017 WannaCry attack, which particularly affected the UK’s <a href="https://www.digitalhealth.net/2018/10/dhsc-puts-cost-wannacry-nhs-92m/">National Health Service</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339826/original/file-20200604-31187-1ptxr2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Nightmare.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrey_Popov / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Several reports indicate that the Elexon attack relied on <a href="https://www.cbronline.com/news/elexon-hack-ransomware-revil">REvil/Sodinokibi ransomware</a>, the same as was used in a cyberattack on financial company <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51017852">Travelex</a> on New Year’s Eve 2019. The Travelex hack was traced back to a Russian hacking collective, and although it is notoriously difficult to attribute cyberattacks with certainty, it is likely that Elexon fell victim to the same hackers. On June 1, the hackers <a href="https://www.cbronline.com/news/elexon-hack-ransomware-revil">posted some</a> of the stolen Elexon data online, in an attempt to pressure the company to pay the ransom. </p>
<h2>A cybercrime pandemic</h2>
<p>The attack on Elexon does not stand alone. As countries around the world have locked down, cybercriminals have launched attacks on a wide range of targets, mostly using ransomware. The lockdown-induced rise in home-working has been a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/24/hacking-attacks-on-home-workers-see-huge-rise-during-lockdown">big enabling factor</a>, as lots of professional communication now takes place over the general internet, which is a lot more insecure than using a local company network with a firewall around it.</p>
<p>Critical infrastructures have been hit particularly hard. In recent months, cyberattacks have been launched on <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/daveywinder/2020/04/08/cyber-attacks-against-hospitals-fighting-covid-19-confirmed-interpol-issues-purple-alert/#58a8545d58bc">hospitals</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52656656">coronavirus research facilities</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/world/middleeast/israel-iran-cyberattacks.html">ports</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/israel-thwarted-attack-on-water-systems-cyber-chief/a-53596796">water supply infrastructure</a>, and the Brussels-based ENTSO-E, the <a href="https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2020/03/09/entso-e-has-recently-found-evidence-of-a-successful-cyber-intrusion-into-its-office-network/">European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity</a>.</p>
<p>This sort of infrastructure is in the crosshairs for two main reasons. First, cybercriminals bet that operators will be less hesitant to pay ransom than other targets, because the continued operation of electricity, water, hospitals and so on is so important. </p>
<p>But it’s also because their computer systems are often outdated. While it may seem paradoxical, the reason for this is the fact that critical infrastructures should always be available. When a system works fine, there is little incentive to change it, especially when changes to computer systems can easily lead to incompatibilities, errors or crashes. For instance, three years after the WannaCry attack, the NHS is once again exposed to an attack because many of its computers are still running on Windows 7, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/one-in-three-nhs-computers-is-still-running-outdated-windows-7-software/">which is no longer supported</a>. </p>
<p>Ransomware attacks are typically not very complicated. They make use of known software vulnerabilities that have already been patched, and the criminals specifically target those computers that have not been updated. These inherent vulnerabilities, combined with the lockdown-induced difficulties in balancing the electricity grid, mean that a more sophisticated cyberattack on Elexon could have had big consequences for the UK electricity system. </p>
<p>As it happens, the attack only affected Elexon’s internal IT systems, and the rest of the electricity system, <a href="https://twitter.com/ng_eso/status/1260996779677569024">as well as the electricity supply itself</a>, was not affected. But this should force us to think about how vulnerable our critical infrastructure is to cyberattacks. </p>
<p>What would have happened if the attack had indeed affected the electricity supply? It would have seriously hindered the UK’s response to the pandemic, and it is possible that we would have struggled to get the power back up, as all resources are currently going into fighting the virus. In addition, it is unlikely that a lockdown without electricity and internet could be maintained for long. The fact that cybercriminals know this only makes our critical infrastructures more appealing targets.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henri van Soest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent ransomware attack on the UK electricity system shows this pandemic is also about computer viruses.Henri van Soest, PhD Candidate in Land Economy, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365022020-04-21T20:07:03Z2020-04-21T20:07:03ZClimate explained: why switching to electric transport makes sense even if electricity is not fully renewable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329302/original/file-20200421-126541-53o8hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C114%2C5054%2C3275&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>I have a question about the charging of electric cars. I understand New Zealand is not 100% self-sufficient in renewable energy (about 80%, supplemented by 20% generally produced by coal-fired stations). If I were to buy an electric vehicle it would add to the load on the national grid. Is the only way we are currently able to add the extra power to burn more coal? Does this not make these vehicles basically “coal fired”?</strong></p>
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<p>New Zealand is indeed well supplied with renewable electricity. In recent years, New Zealand <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-statistics-and-modelling/energy-publications-and-technical-papers/new-zealand-energy-quarterly/">has averaged</a> 83% from renewable sources (including 60% hydropower, 17% geothermal, and 5% wind) and 17% from fossil fuels (4% coal and 13% gas). </p>
<p>In addition to being cheap and renewable, hydropower has another great advantage. Its production can ramp up and down very quickly (by turning the turbines on and off) during the day to match demand.</p>
<p>Looking at a typical winter’s day (I’ve taken <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180704063721/http:/www.em6live.co.nz/Default.aspx">July 4, 2018</a>), demand at 3am was 3,480 megawatts (MW) and 85% was met by renewable sources. By the early evening peak, demand was up to 5,950MW, but was met by 88% renewable sources. Fossil fuel sources did ramp up, but hydropower ramped up much more. </p>
<h2>Flipping the fleet</h2>
<p>Even during periods of peak demand, our electricity is very clean. An electric vehicle (EV) charged during the evening would <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7">emit about 20 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre</a>.</p>
<p>Even an EV charged purely on coal- or gas-fired electricity still has <a href="https://www.eeca.govt.nz/news-and-events/media-releases/research-confirms-environmental-benefits-of-electric-vehicles/">lower emissions than a petrol or diesel car</a>, which comes to around 240g CO₂/km (if one includes the emissions needed to extract, refine, and transport the fuel). </p>
<p>An EV run on coal-fired electricity emits around 180g CO₂/km during use, while the figure for gas-fired electricity is about 90g CO₂/km. This is possible because internal combustion engines are less efficient than the turbines used in power stations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-the-environmental-footprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762">Climate explained: the environmental footprint of electric versus fossil cars</a>
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<p>Looking longer term, a mass conversion of transport in New Zealand to walking, cycling and electric trains, buses, cars and trucks is one of the best and most urgent <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/inquiries/lowemissions/">strategies</a> to reduce emissions. It will take a few decades, but on balance it may not be too expensive, because of the fuel savings that will accrue (<a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/overseas-goods-trade-2018-in-review">NZ$11 billion</a> of fuel was imported in 2018.)</p>
<p>This conversion will increase electricity use by about a <a href="https://www.transpower.co.nz/news/transpower-report-opportunity-decarbonise-our-economy">quarter</a>. To meet it we can look at both supply and demand.</p>
<h2>More renewable electricity</h2>
<p>On the supply side, more renewable electricity is planned – construction of three large wind farms began in 2019, and more are <a href="http://www.windenergy.org.nz/wind-energy/nz-windfarms">expected</a>. The potential supply is significant, especially considering that, compared to many other countries, we’ve hardly begun to start using <a href="https://www.transpower.co.nz/about-us/transmission-tomorrow/sun-rises-solar-energy-future">solar power</a>. </p>
<p>But at some point, adding too much of these intermittent sources starts to strain the ability of the hydro lakes to balance them. This is at the core of the present <a href="https://www.transpower.co.nz/news/transpower-report-opportunity-decarbonise-our-economy">debate</a> about whether New Zealand should be aiming for 100% or <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113730079/experts-warn-100-renewable-electricity-target-will-hurt-new-zealands-wider-climate-goals">95%</a> renewable electricity. </p>
<p>There are various ways of dealing with this, including storage batteries, building more geothermal power stations or “<a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/massive-hydro-storage-plan-be-reassessed">pumped hydro</a>” stations. In pumped hydro, water is pumped uphill into a storage lake when there is an excess of wind and solar electricity available, to be released later. If the lake is large enough, this technology can also address New Zealand’s persistent risk of dry years that can lead to a shortage of hydropower.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-dont-we-have-electric-aircraft-123910">Climate explained: why don't we have electric aircraft?</a>
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<h2>Smarter electricity use</h2>
<p>On the demand side, a survey is <a href="https://flipthefleet.org/2018/drivers-memo-27/">under way</a> to measure the actual charging patterns of EV drivers. Information available so far suggests that many people charge their EV late at night to take advantage of cheap night rates. </p>
<p>If demand gets too high at certain times, then the cost of both generation and transmission will likely rise. To avoid this, electricity suppliers are exploring smart <a href="https://www.transpower.co.nz/keeping-you-connected/demand-response/our-demand-response-programme-0">demand responses</a>, based on the hot water ripple control New Zealand began using in the 1950s. This allows electricity suppliers to remotely turn off hot water heaters for a few hours to limit demand. </p>
<p>In modern versions, consumers or suppliers can moderate demand in response to price signals, either in real time using an app or ahead of time through a contract.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s emissions from land transport continue to rise, up by another <a href="https://emissionstracker.mfe.govt.nz/">2% in 2018</a> and almost double on 1990 levels. </p>
<iframe title="Emissions from land transport in New Zealand" aria-label="Column Chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VQXJ1/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>To address climate change, we have to stop burning fossil fuels. Passenger cars are among the biggest users and also one of the easiest to change. Fossil fuel cannot be recycled or made clean. In contrast, electricity is getting cleaner all the time, both in New Zealand and in car factories.</p>
<p>If you switch to an EV now, your impact is far greater than just your personal reduction in emissions. Early adopters are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations">vital</a>. The more EVs we have, the more people will get used to them, the easier it will be to counter misinformation, and the more pressure there will be to cater for them. </p>
<p>Many people have found that switching to an electric car has been empowering and has <a href="https://www.psychology.org.au/getmedia/88ee1716-2604-44ce-b87a-ca0408dfaa12/Climate-change-empowerment-handbook.pdf">galvanised</a> them to start taking other actions for the climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A switch to electric transport is one of New Zealand’s key climate strategies. It will increase demand on the national grid, but might also help increase renewable electricity generation.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1333852020-03-23T15:42:49Z2020-03-23T15:42:49ZFully renewable electricity could destabilise the grid – but old coal plants may have a solution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320465/original/file-20200313-115127-mo2ff6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/renewable-energy-collage-windmill-solar-panel-1570393657">Massimo Cavallo/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before long, it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/12/wind-and-solar-plants-will-soon-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-all-big-markets-around-world-analysis-finds">will be cheaper</a> to build new wind and solar plants than continue running coal-fired power stations in every major market worldwide. The idea of a fully renewable electricity grid is no longer a pipe dream.</p>
<p>But as energy utilities race to decarbonise, they’re heading towards a new problem. As electrical systems are becoming more dynamic – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-consume-electricity-has-changed-dramatically-in-the-past-20-years-and-the-market-has-failed-to-keep-up-129478">with electricity generation more spread out and decentralised</a> across many sources – it becomes harder to balance supply and demand, risking blackouts. And fossil fuel powered turbines provide a way to balance the system that renewable generation doesn’t.</p>
<p>Fossil fuel power plants use steam from burning coal, oil or gas to turn a turbine connected to a generator, producing electricity. The electrical power taken out by the grid must be matched by the power put into it by the turbines, but demand rises and falls throughout the day. As the steam power input takes a little while to increase or decrease to match demand, there can be an imbalance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-since-2010-wind-surges-to-second-place-coal-collapses-and-fossil-fuel-use-nearly-halves-129346">Britain's electricity since 2010: wind surges to second place, coal collapses and fossil fuel use nearly halves</a>
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<p>All the rotating parts in the turbine and generator effectively store kinetic energy. When there is a sudden increase in electricity demand, there will be more energy being taken out of the system in the form of electricity than coming in from the steam power. When this happens, the rotating masses in the turbine and generator slow down, giving up some of their energy. This allows time for the power supplied by steam to increase to match electrical demand. </p>
<p>But as large amounts of renewable energy generation are introduced to electrical grids and fossil-fuelled plants close down, the system loses this short-term storage provided by the huge spinning rotors of the power stations. This means that grids run on renewable energy would struggle to balance supply and demand throughout the day with backup energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320197/original/file-20200312-111227-4dwmp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Large turbines spin to generate electricity, retaining some kinetic energy which can help balance supply and demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/large-turbines-spin-create-electricity-powerplant-383259154">CrackerClips Stock Media/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It all comes down to what we call inertia, the process of slowing down how quickly things can change. The kinetic energy stored in fossil fuel power stations provides inertia, buying time for the system to adjust to match supply and demand. Renewable-based grids don’t have the same levels of inertia built in.</p>
<p>On August 9, 2019, <a href="https://www.ashden.org/news/uk-power-outage-9-august-2019">a power cut swept across the UK</a>. If there had been more inertia on the grid it may not have been as severe. A crisis is approaching where the remaining grid inertia is so low that electricity supply is vulnerable to unexpected events, such as a generator failure or even sabotage to the grid.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320199/original/file-20200312-111242-u5qcns.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spinning rotors in a power plant act like the water in the tank – providing a buffer between energy supply and demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Hoskin</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the past, the inertia provided by spinning metal came for free and so it has never been valued. It’s only now that the electricity grid is transitioning to decentralised renewable generation that the problem has emerged. As we move from large power plants with spinning rotors to a vast network of solar panels and wind turbines, how can the advantages for stabilising energy supply in the old model be made to work in a fundamentally different system?</p>
<h2>Bringing inertia back</h2>
<p>Control systems can balance energy supply by adding energy to the grid when needed from batteries. This system can be expensive though, and batteries aren’t easily recycled. </p>
<p>But if the original system isn’t broke, why fix it? <a href="https://www.spenergynetworks.co.uk/pages/phoenix.aspx">In some places</a>, the spinning masses of metal in power stations are being replaced by rotating machines called synchronous condensers at various weak spots around the grid.</p>
<p>In traditional power stations and synchronous condensers, only 4% of the kinetic energy in the rotors can be used. But there are solutions that capture all of the advantages of actual spinning metal while also enabling the entire store of kinetic energy to be released. In these, a large <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K4W4hA6aV4">flywheel</a> – a rotating device which can store energy – is connected to a synchronous generator with a mechanism called a differential drive unit (DDU) between the two.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320201/original/file-20200312-111237-13dgu59.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A model of how spinning metal could store and release energy on a renewable electricity grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Hoskin</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under normal circumstances, the DDU is locked and the flywheel acts in the same way as spinning metal in a power station. If the grid frequency becomes too low, the DDU can unlock and slow the flywheel all the way down to stationary if necessary, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352152X17305996">transferring up to 100% of its kinetic energy</a> to the grid. This makes much more use of the kinetic energy stored in the flywheel and will help electricity grids of the future accommodate higher amounts of renewable power sources while retaining a resilient grid.</p>
<p>Perhaps most encouragingly, this enhanced flywheel system would be much cheaper than a battery based equivalent. It turns out after all that some new problems have some excellent old solutions.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1133385">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seamus Garvey receives funding from EPSRC and Innovate-UK relating to energy storage. He also conducts unrelated research work in relation to aerospace for Rolls-Royce, Safran and several smaller companies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Hoskin receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Rouse receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p>Here’s how spinning metal can smooth out the spikes in renewable electricity generation.Seamus Garvey, Professor of Dynamics, University of NottinghamAdam Hoskin, Research Associate in Grid Energy Storage, University of NottinghamJames Rouse, Research Fellow in Engineering, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1299872020-01-29T01:36:48Z2020-01-29T01:36:48ZHumans are good at thinking their way out of problems – but climate change is outfoxing us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311746/original/file-20200124-81341-1gvclnq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C33%2C4609%2C3667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In some areas of human activity such as farming, we are exhausting our capacity to adapt to climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0">growing evidence</a> that Earth’s systems are heading towards climate “tipping points” beyond which change becomes abrupt and unstoppable. But another tipping point is already being crossed - humanity’s capacity to adapt to a warmer world.</p>
<p>This season’s uncontrollable bushfires overwhelmed the nation. They left <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/six-firefighters-injured-three-dead-within-10-hours-20200124-p53uc4">33 people</a> dead, killed an estimated <a href="https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/08/australian-bushfires-more-than-one-billion-animals-impacted.html">one billion animals</a> and razed more than 10 million hectares – a land area <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043">almost the size of England</a>. The millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide the fires spewed into the atmosphere will accelerate climate change further. </p>
<p>Humans are a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/humans-may-be-most-adaptive-species/">highly adaptive species</a>. In the initial phases of global warming in the 20th century, we coped with the changes. But at some point, the pace and extent of global warming will outrun the human capacity to adapt. Already in Australia, there are signs we have reached that point.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311758/original/file-20200124-81346-17n9wq7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change and its effects, such as drought, challenge the human capacity to adapt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wine woes</h2>
<p>For Australia, the first obvious tipping point may come in agriculture. Farmers have gradually adapted to a changing climate for the last two decades, but this can’t go on indefinitely.</p>
<p>Take wine grapes. In the space of just 20 years, a warming climate means grape harvest dates have come back by <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/6559752/the-wine-industry-is-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/">roughly 40 days</a>. That is, instead of harvesting red grapes at the end of March or early April many growers are now harvesting in mid-February. This is astounding. </p>
<p>The implications for wine quality are profound. Rapid ripening can cause “unbalanced fruit” where high sugar levels are reached before optimum colour and flavour development has been achieved.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-this-new-world-of-bushfire-terror-i-question-whether-i-want-to-have-kids-126752">In this new world of bushfire terror, I question whether I want to have kids</a>
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<p>To date, wine producers have <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/6559752/the-wine-industry-is-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/">dealt with the problem</a> by switching to more heat-tolerant grape varieties, using sprinklers on hot days and even adding water <strong>to wine?</strong> to reduce excessive alcohol content. But these adaptations can only go so far.</p>
<p>On top of this, the recent fires ravaged wine regions in south-eastern Australia. Smoke <a href="https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/food-and-wine/the-hidden-cost-of-bushfires-smoke-taint-in-vineyards-20200120-p53szt">reportedly ruined many grape crops</a> and one wine companies, Tyrrell’s Wines, expects to produce <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/tyrrell-s-loses-80pc-of-grapes-due-to-fires-20200122-p53tr1">just 20% of its usual volume</a> this year.</p>
<p>At some point, climate change may render grape production uneconomic in large areas of Australia.</p>
<h2>The Murray Darling crisis</h2>
<p>Farmers are used to handling drought. But the sequence of droughts since 2000 – <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-current-drought-caused-by-climate-change-its-complicated-97867">exacerbated by climate change</a> – raises the prospect that investment in cropland and cropping machinery becomes uneconomic. This in turn will negatively impact suppliers and local communities.</p>
<p>The problems are most severe in relation to irrigated agriculture, particularly in the Murray–Darling Basin.</p>
<p>In the early 1990s, it became clear that historical over-extraction of water had damaged the ecosystem’s health. In subsequent decades, policies to address this – such as extraction caps – were introduced. They assumed rainfall patterns of the 20th century would continue unchanged.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-bushfire-smoke-is-lapping-the-globe-and-the-law-is-too-lame-to-catch-it-130010">Australia's bushfire smoke is lapping the globe, and the law is too lame to catch it</a>
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<p>However the 21st century has been characterised by <a href="https://watersource.awa.asn.au/environment/natural-environment/murray-darling-basin-drought-most-severe-on-record/">long periods of severe drought</a>, and policies to revive the river environment have largely failed. Nowhere was this more evident than during last summer’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wrote-the-report-for-the-minister-on-fish-deaths-in-the-lower-darling-heres-why-it-could-happen-again-115063">shocking fish kills</a>.</p>
<p>The current drought has pushed the situation to political boiling point - and perhaps ecological tipping point.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-crisis-has-plunged-the-nats-into-a-world-of-pain-but-they-reap-what-they-sow-128238">Tensions</a> between the Commonwealth and the states have prompted New South Wales government, which largely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/08/nsw-minister-altered-barwon-darling-water-sharing-plan-to-favour-irrigators">acts in irrigator interests</a>, to flag <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/13/states-threaten-to-quit-murray-darling-basin-plan-over-water-recovery-target">quitting</a> the Murray Darling Basin Plan. This may mean even more water is taken from the river system, precipitating an ecological catastrophe.</p>
<p>The Murray Darling case shows adaptation tipping points are not, in general, triggered solely by climate change. The interaction between climate change and social, political and economic systems determines whether human systems adapt or break down.</p>
<h2>Power struggles</h2>
<p>The importance of this interplay is illustrated even more sharply by Australia’s failed electricity policy.</p>
<p>Political and public resistance to climate mitigation is largely driven by professed concern about the price and reliability of electricity – that a transition to renewable energy will cause supply shortages and higher energy bills.</p>
<p>However a failure to act on climate change has itself put huge stress on the electricity system.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before. But they're ignoring a few key facts</a>
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<p>Hot summers have caused old coal-fired power stations to <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/september-gas-coal-power-plants-have-broken-down-100-times-so-far-2018">break down more frequently</a>. And the increased use of air-conditioning has increased electricity demand – particularly at peak times, which our system is ill-equipped to handle. </p>
<p>Finally, the recent bushfire disaster <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/energy-grid-under-threat-as-bushfires-bear-down-on-power-lines-20200103-p53om1.html">destroyed</a> substantial parts of the electricity transmission and distribution system, implying yet further costs. Insurance costs for electricity networks are tipped to rise in response to the bushfire risk, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/power-prices-rise-blackouts-increase-bushfire-season-intensifies/11890646">pushing power prices even higher</a>.</p>
<p>So far, the federal government’s response to the threat has been that of a failed state. A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-16/cabinet-dumps-clean-energy-target-for-new-plan/9056174">series</a> of <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjmuvPLvZvnAhWmxjgGHe_ZB0cQFjACegQIPBAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fclimatechangeauthority.gov.au%2Fsites%2Fprod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au%2Ffiles%2Ffiles%2FSpecial%2520review%2520Report%25203%2FClimate%2520Change%2520Authority%2520Special%2520Review%2520Report%2520Three.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3Po_SKPoPYvtjR0eKx9PA5">plans</a> to reform the system and adapt to climate change, most recently the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/08/scott-morrison-says-national-energy-guarantee-is-dead">National Energy Guarantee</a>, have floundered thanks to climate deniers in the federal government. Even as the recent fire disaster unfolded, our prime minister <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fire-what-fire-it-s-business-as-usual-in-morrison-s-canberra-bubble-20191206-p53hom.html">remained paralysed</a>. </p>
<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>Australia is not alone in facing these adaptation problems – or indeed in generating emissions that drive planetary warming. Only global action can address the problem.</p>
<p>But when the carbon impact of Australia’s fires is seen in tandem with recent climate policy failures here and elsewhere, the future looks very grim.</p>
<p>We need radical and immediate mitigation strategies, as well as adaptation measures based on science. Without this, 2019 may indeed be seen as a tipping point on the road to both climate catastrophe, and humanity’s capacity to cope.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211">Scientists hate to say 'I told you so'. But Australia, you were warned</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority and an active campaigner for action to mitigate global heating.</span></em></p>Australian winemakers have lost smoke-tainted crops and political leaders apparently cannot solve the Murray Darling crisis. Perhaps climate change is getting the better of us.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284922020-01-07T13:52:23Z2020-01-07T13:52:23ZProgress in rolling out of national power grids has stalled across Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307636/original/file-20191218-11891-rdedzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C601%2C4611%2C2965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Power cuts continued to plague some African countries.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Three years ago the African Development Bank launched an initiative to speed up the supply of electricity in Africa in 2016. Launching the <a href="https://thenerveafrica.com/3208/africa-is-tired-of-being-in-the-dark-says-akinwumi-adesina-afdb-president/">New Deal on Energy for Africa</a>, the bank’s President Akinwumi Adesina, remarked:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Africa is tired of being in the dark. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Other high-profile initiatives – including <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica">Power Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.seforall.org/">Sustainable Energy for All</a> – have also prioritised electricity for Africans.</p>
<p>But on-the-ground observation and interviews throughout Africa suggest that the United Nations’ <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals/goal-7-affordable-and-clean-energy.html">development goal of</a> providing “access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all” remains a distant dream for many.</p>
<p>Survey teams from the African research network <a href="http://www.afrobarometer.org/">Afrobarometer</a>, asked people in 34 countries on the continent about access to electricity, and recorded the presence of an accessible grid. They found that expansion of national electric grids appeared to have largely stalled in recent years. And even in areas where an electric grid was accessible, service often remained unreliable.</p>
<p>About four in 10 Africans (42%) lack an electricity connection in their homes. This is either because they are in zones not served by an electric grid or because they are not connected to an existing grid. In 16 countries, more than half of respondents had no electricity connection. This included more than three quarters of citizens in Burkina Faso (81%), Uganda (80%), Liberia (78%), and Madagascar (76%).</p>
<p>Nor does being connected guarantee power. Power cuts continued to plague some countries. About one in seven respondents (14%) had a connection but reported that their power worked half the time, or less. All in all, taking into account households with no access to a grid, no connection to an existing grid, or an unreliable supply, only 43% of Africans enjoyed a reliable supply of electricity. While the comparable figure was nine out of 10 in Mauritius (98%) and Morocco (91%), it barely exceeded one in 20 citizens in Malawi (5%) and Guinea (7%).</p>
<h2>Realities on the ground</h2>
<p>Between late 2016 and late 2018, Afrobarometer teams conducted 45,823 face-to-face interviews in 34 countries. They also recorded the presence of basic infrastructure. They found that, on average, two-thirds (65%) of citizens lived in zones served by an electric grid. This was virtually the same number found in a survey done <a href="http://afrobarometer.org/publications/ad75-unreliable-electricity-supply-still-plague-majority-of-africans">three years earlier</a>.</p>
<p>Access to an electric grid varied widely by country. While virtually all Cabo Verdeans, Mauritians, and Tunisians lived in zones served by a grid, fewer than one-third of citizens in Burkina Faso (28%), Madagascar (29%), Mali (30%), Guinea (32%), and Liberia (33%) enjoyed the same access (Figure 1).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307454/original/file-20191217-58339-1qytvor.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Surveyors recorded whether the enumeration area (EA) had an electricity grid that most houses could access. (%</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The teams also found stark regional differences: about nine out of 10 North and Central Africans resided in zones served by an electric grid (91% and 86%, respectively). But only around half (55%) of East Africans do. </p>
<p>As far as recording progress was concerned, East Africa was the only region in which Afrobarometer found significant advances. The electricity grid had been extended by 7 percentage points since its 2011/2013 survey.</p>
<p>As usual, rural residents suffered the most glaring disadvantages. On average they were less than half as likely (44%) as their urban counterparts (92%) to live in an area served by a grid.</p>
<h2>Grid, connection and reliable service</h2>
<p>Given the <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31333/9781464813610.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y">high cost of an electric connection</a>, not all households within reach of an electric grid were actually connected. In areas with access to a grid, poor households were half as likely as well-off households to have a connection.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307455/original/file-20191217-58302-gnzswf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Respondents were asked: Do you have an electric connection to your home from the mains? [If yes:] How often is electricity actually available from this connection? (Note:</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ghanaians report a striking improvement in reliability: The share of citizens with regular power doubled between 2014 and 2017, from 37% to 79%, in large part as a result of increased supply by independent power producers (under contracts initiated under the previous administration) that reduced large-scale load shedding experienced in 2014-2015. Other countries recording double-digit percentage-point improvements in reliable electricity supply are Zimbabwe (+18 points), Sierra Leone (+16), Botswana (+14), eSwatini (+13), Togo (+12), and Tanzania (+11).</p>
<p>The largest decline in reliable electricity supply between 2014/2015 and 2016/2018 occurred in South Africa (-21 points), which has experienced power cuts as the utility Eskom battles to maintain its generating plants and keep pace with growing demand, followed by Cameroon (-19) and Côte d'Ivoire (-12).</p>
<p>Looking only at households connected to the electric grid allows us to highlight the extent of poor-quality supply. Across 34 countries, one in four respondents (25%) who have an electricity connection say their electricity works “about half the time” or less (Figure 3). Quality is a particular problem in Malawi, where 88% of connected households do not have reliable electricity, and the situation is only slightly better in Guinea (79%) and Nigeria (79%).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307456/original/file-20191217-58329-16hl8z2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Respondents whose households have an electricity connection were asked: How often is electricity actually available from this connection? (% who say</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Citizens expect more from government</h2>
<p>Given that only 43% of Africans enjoy a reliable supply of electricity, it’s hardly surprising that fewer than half (45%) say their government is doing a good job on this issue. There are bright spots whose lessons can be learned, such as striking gains in reliable power supply in Ghana. But even countries that have managed to extend the electric grid over the past decade, such as Kenya, will need enormous efforts to increase supply, improve service, and expand the use of alternative energy sources if they hope to fulfil the ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolyn Logan receives funding from Afrobarometer, which received funding for Round 7 from the governments of Sweden and the United States, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Open Society Foundations, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.</span></em></p>There has been no progress in expanding national electricity grids in most African countries since 2016.Carolyn Logan, Deputy Director of the Afrobarometer & Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and MSU’s African Studies Center, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1152252019-04-11T06:03:00Z2019-04-11T06:03:00ZDon’t trust the environmental hype about electric vehicles? The economic benefits might convince you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268502/original/file-20190410-2912-1rtdnfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5475%2C3038&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are plenty of economic reasons to change our gas-guzzling habits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/electric-car-charge-ecology-3d-render-735265675?src=H_gLjNbIsVfrJ3K-DvNEOA-1-9">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With electric cars back in the headlines, it’s time to remember why we should bother making the transition away from oil.</p>
<p>In our recent <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/search?q=&authors=Broadbent&journal=wevj&article_type=&search=Search">research</a> looking at attitudes towards electric vehicle uptake, we pointed to some of the factors making the case for change. We need to remind ourselves that burning oil, a finite resource, to energise motor vehicles will not only cost the environment, but also the economy. </p>
<p>A critical factor is carbon emissions. The transport sector is the <a href="https://www.who.int/sustainable-development/transport/health-risks/climate-impacts/en/">fastest growing</a> contributor of greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>The transport sector <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/13/transport-emissions-continue-to-rise-as-australia-lags-behind-other-nations">contributes some 18%</a> of Australia’s total greenhouse gas pollution and Australia is <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/FactSheet-Transport.pdf">ranked second worst</a> in an international scorecard for transport energy efficiency. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/costly-toxic-and-slow-to-charge-busting-electric-car-myths-21321">Costly, toxic and slow to charge? Busting electric car myths</a>
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<p>But even if you don’t believe this is an urgent issue, there are plenty of economic reasons to change our gas-guzzling habits.</p>
<h2>A matter of money</h2>
<p>In just one year (2017-18), Australia’s <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-statistics/trade-in-goods-and-services/Documents/australias-goods-services-by-top-25-imports-2017-18.pdf">imports</a> of refined petroleum cost A$21.7 billion.</p>
<p>Crude petroleum cost us a further A$11.7 billion – that’s more than A$33 billion going to overseas companies who may pay <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/07/australian-tax-office-says-36-of-big-firms-and-multinationals-paid-no-tax">limited tax</a> to Australia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-28/changes-required-to-fuel-excise-funding-before-electric-car-boom/10175402">The argument</a> that electric vehicle motorists, who do pay GST on their electricity, may not pay any <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0001/01RP06">fuel tax</a> is really a distraction asking taxpayers to look somewhere else instead of the big companies. </p>
<p>What’s more, the A$18 billion fuel tax goes to <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2016-17/content/glossies/overview/html/overview-13.htm">general revenue</a> and isn’t pledged to road building.</p>
<h2>Unsteady fuel reserves</h2>
<p>Policies minimising Australia’s reliance on oil imports could bring significant benefits to businesses and families, and even to public sector agencies with fleet operations. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1115799847104200704"}"></div></p>
<p>Around 90% of the oil Australia consumes is imported and road transport is <a href="http://www.aie.org.au/data/pdfs/oil_gas_articles/NRMA_Fuel_Security_Report_Pt2.pdf">almost entirely dependent</a> on it. The bulk of our automotive gasoline comes from <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-petroleum-statistics-2018">Singapore and South Korea</a>, and in the event of geopolitical imbalance, the supply of our fuel could potentially be jeopardised. </p>
<p>And our fuel stockpiles are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-23/fact-check-jim-molan-fuel-security/9687606">very low</a>. Australia has only about <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-petroleum-statistics-2018">21 days’ supply</a> in stock, rather than the recommended 90 days. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-fuel-stockpile-is-perilously-low-and-it-may-be-too-late-for-a-refill-96271">Australia's fuel stockpile is perilously low, and it may be too late for a refill</a>
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<h2>Health risks</h2>
<p>Potential geopolitical imbalances affecting the national supply are important, but the <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2005/files/wp_063.pdf">health costs</a> associated with fossil fuels are in the scale of billions of dollars in Australia.</p>
<p>This includes premature death, hospital and medical costs, and loss of productivity that arise from toxic air pollution from internal combustion engine vehicles. </p>
<p>It has also been found pollution from burning fossil fuels can cause respiratory illnesses like asthma and <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/full/10.1289/EHP299">neurodevelopmental disorders</a> in children It’s a <a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuels-are-bad-for-your-health-and-harmful-in-many-ways-besides-climate-change-107771">high price</a> to pay to continue burning fossil fuels. </p>
<p>And noise pollution from traffic can cause <a href="https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/health-effects-environmental-noise-pollution">health problems</a>, for instance, by elevating blood pressure, or creating cognitive development problems for children, who have noise-related sleep disturbance. </p>
<h2>Conventional cars are inefficient</h2>
<p>Electric vehicles convert about 60% of their energy to propulsion. Conventional cars, on the other hand, are very <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml">inefficient</a>. </p>
<p>For every litre of fuel burned, only about 17 to 21% of the energy is converted to forward motion, the rest is lost as heat and noise. The waste heat collectively <a href="https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Impacts-of-climate-change/Heat/Urban-heat">warms up urban areas</a>, causing more use of air conditioning in buildings in summer.</p>
<p>And buildings located near heavily trafficked roads may be exposed to high air and noise pollution, so windows may not generally be used for ventilation. This also places demand on air conditioning and electricity. </p>
<h2>Renewable energy is cheaper and faster</h2>
<p>An important point in the ongoing debate about electric vehicles is that they’re only as clean as the electricity they use. A widespread adoption of electric vehicles means the electricity supply will need to be increased. </p>
<p>And Australia’s current energy supply is notoriously one of the <a href="https://www.iea.org/countries/Australia/">dirtiest in the world</a>.</p>
<p>But the demand for new electricity to supply future electric vehicle uptake <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Electric_Vehicles/ElectricVehicles/Submissions">will be met</a> by installing renewables because they’re cheaper and faster than installing new <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/12/03/plunging-prices-mean-building-new-renewable-energy-is-cheaper-than-running-existing-coal/#62b78f9e31f3">coal fired power stations</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-electric-cars-can-help-save-the-grid-73914">How electric cars can help save the grid</a>
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<p>The bottom line on this ongoing debate is really about changing our mindset about transport – let’s not get stuck in the past, let’s join the modern world and charge ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115225/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The transport sector is the fastest growing contributor of greenhouse gases. Electric vehicles are a cost-effective solution.Gail Broadbent, PhD candidate Faculty of Science UNSW, UNSW SydneyGraciela Metternicht, Professor of Environmental Geography, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1073732018-12-05T09:33:22Z2018-12-05T09:33:22ZSmall businesses in Africa will be on the frontline of climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248970/original/file-20181205-186067-173jwa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Zambia businesses in the food processing sector, are in for a tough time. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">flickr/Simon Hess</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is going to have huge consequences all over the world, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">especially in Africa</a>. Harvests will be affected, threatening agricultural outputs. This could hurt farmers and lead to greater food insecurity. </p>
<p>But there hasn’t been much discussion about what effects climate change will have in other areas – like in the continent’s small and medium business sector. This is a worrying oversight. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/business-experience-of-floods-and-droughtrelated-water-and-electricity-supply-disruption-in-three-cities-in-subsaharan-africa-during-the-20152016-el-nino/4E87FAB6F1703FB2558CB2D0EE9845E2">research</a>, conducted in Zambia and Botswana, revealed that businesses activities faced major disruptions during the 2015/2016 El Niño event. This was a result of drought-related water supply disruption in Botswana’s capital Gaborone, and disruption to hydroelectricity supplies in Zambia’s capital Lusaka. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.livescience.com/3650-el-nino.html">El Niño</a> is one of the key drivers of variations in global climate conditions between different years. It recurs every two to seven years and it’s typically associated with reduced rainfall and drought conditions in southern Africa. </p>
<p>Reflecting this trend, the 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0009.1">strongest on record</a>. It brought widespread drought conditions and heat waves to the region. </p>
<p>By impacting urban water and hydroelectricity supplies, this had major consequences for business activities in Gaborone and Lusaka, as our research shows. These cities’ experiences should serve as a warning for others across the continent, and systems should be put in place to protect particularly small businesses from the worst realities of a changing climate.</p>
<h2>Under pressure</h2>
<p>In Botswana, as lake levels in the Gaborone Dam dropped to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000680/full#">historical lows</a>, businesses in Gaborone experienced decreased water pressure. In some cases businesses were completely cut off from piped water supply. </p>
<p>Lack of water for food preparation, butchery, irrigation, laundry, cleaning and sanitation had dire consequences for businesses such as hotels and guesthouses, restaurants, food businesses and other service industries. Hairdressers and car washing enterprises, for instance, came to a standstill as they struggled to provide services to customers or to maintain hygiene standards.</p>
<p>In Zambia’s capital Lusaka, where hydropower accounts for <a href="https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/zambia">94%</a> of the country’s electricity generation capacity, low lake levels in Lake Kariba contributed to unprecedented electricity blackouts, often lasting for eight hours at a time. </p>
<p>In Lusaka, activities reliant on electricity such as manufacturing, processing and communications were interrupted as equipment was immobilised. Assets were lost because they couldn’t be reliably heated or refrigerated. In both cities, supply chains were disrupted.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A video explaining the authors’ findings.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Infrastructure issues</h2>
<p>Towards the end of 2016, as El Niño drew to a close, more than half of the 135 micro, small and medium enterprises we surveyed in Gaborone and Lusaka told us their profits would be lower than previous years. Almost a third believed that their business was at risk of closing down. Business owners said disruptions to water supply and power outages, in Gaborone and Lusaka respectively, were the greatest obstacles to them doing business. </p>
<p>The two cities’ experiences, alongside the widely reported “<a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/will-day-zero-loom-again-for-cape-town-20181005">Day Zero</a>” water situation in Cape Town, South Africa, should sound a warning for businesses elsewhere on the continent. Water shortages in Cape Town began during the El Niño, but extended into 2018 as drought conditions persisted. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/day-zero-is-meant-to-cut-cape-towns-water-use-what-is-it-and-is-it-working-92055">Day Zero is meant to cut Cape Town's water use: what is it, and is it working?</a>
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<p>Climate change events like droughts are only going to get worse – and urban centres where many small, medium and micro enterprises thrive will be in the eye of the storm. The 2015/2016 El Niño highlighted that even fairly moderate changes in rainfall can have major consequences for businesses in African cities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/urbanization-sub-saharan-africa">More people are moving to cities</a>, setting up businesses and connecting, often for the first time, to water and electricity grids. This increases demand and places pressure on existing water and energy infrastructure. </p>
<p>At the same time, a complex set of factors has limited the development of new infrastructure and the effective management of existing resources. This means cities are struggling to keep up with the increased demand. </p>
<p>These factors, which include under-investment in infrastructure, policy uncertainty, governance challenges and poor municipal service provision, exacerbated the effect of drought in Botswana, Zambia and South Africa.</p>
<h2>Preparing for a new reality</h2>
<p>So what can be done to address these realities? </p>
<p>First, action is needed across sub-Saharan Africa to increase understanding of the vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – alongside the effects of increasing urbanisation and a changing climate. </p>
<p>And, second, small and medium sized businesses, which are <a href="https://www.norfund.no/getfile.php/133983-1484571386/Bilder/Publications/SME%20and%20growth%20MENON%20.pdf">key drivers of economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa</a> and provide many people with a livelihood, need more support from governments and policy makers to help them cope with disruption. </p>
<p>This should include better access to information about the timing and severity of anticipated disruption to water and electricity supplies, as well as support to invest in coping strategies such as alternative sources of energy. </p>
<p><em>Patrick Curran, a policy analyst at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, also contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the UK Department for International Development (DfID) (grant ref: NE/P004784/1). The authors are also supported by funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment.</span></em></p>Water and power cuts prompted by reduced rainfall and drought in Southern Africa have caused major problems for business.Kate Gannon, Postdoctoral researcher, London School of Economics and Political ScienceDeclan Conway, Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1055092018-10-30T07:38:48Z2018-10-30T07:38:48ZThe new electric vehicle highway is a welcome gear shift, but other countries are still streets ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242892/original/file-20181030-76396-x5wkbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C6253%2C3999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Motorists and governments have each been waiting for the other to take the plunge on electric cars.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perhaps buoyed by a <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_australia_state_of_electric_vehicles2_june_2018.pdf">67% increase in the sale of electric cars</a> in Australia last year – albeit coming off a low base – the federal government this month announced a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/electric-car-stops-to-link-big-cities/news-story/47e905e9ac7875dbf05d564ca79c6dce">A$6 million funding injection</a> for a network of ultra-fast electric vehicle recharging stations.</p>
<p>Eighteen stations will be located no more than 200km apart on the main highway linking Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide. A further three stations will be built near Perth. All will be powered by renewable energy. </p>
<p>The network will address the issue of “range anxiety” – the fear that your car will run out of puff before reaching its destination – that particularly concerns motorists in a country as big as Australia. If your electric vehicle needs charging every 200km or so, that’s a lot of stopping between Sydney and Melbourne – and what if you can’t find a charging station?</p>
<p>The newest electric vehicles can cover <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/models">up to 594km</a> on a single charge. That improvement, together with the new charging network, will do much to address range anxiety. But as is often the case, the devil may be in the detail.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-electric-car-revolution-wont-happen-automatically-90442">Australia's 'electric car revolution' won't happen automatically</a>
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<p>We don’t yet know how many fast-charging ports will be available at each station, but the number of ports is often limited due to high infrastructure costs. Even a fast charge takes about 15 minutes, so queues are likely. If a 10-minute wait at your local petrol station irritates you, imagine waiting an hour or more at an electric recharge station.</p>
<p>But the new network is undoubtedly a step forward, and such progress is necessary to keep electric-curious prospective motorists in the game. Of that 67% increase in electric vehicles sales mentioned earlier, the vast majority are business fleet vehicles. Private car buyers are still slow to take the plunge.</p>
<p>Australia is in the midst of a classic chicken-and-egg situation when it comes to growing the electric vehicle market, with the result that we’re well behind where we should be. Buyers want to see more infrastructure and perhaps some government-funded incentives (just look what a A$2,000 subsidy scheme did for the LPG market). But governments need to be confident that people will definitely buy electric cars before taking the plunge.</p>
<h2>The power you’re supplying… it’s electrifying</h2>
<p>Now that there’s some movement afoot from both parties, there’s a third player to consider: the electricity utilities.</p>
<p>If most electric vehicle owners plug in their vehicle when they get home from work of an evening – just as many of us let our phone run down during the day and then throw it on the kitchen-bench charger when we walk in the door – this could pose significant problems for the electricity grid.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/05/29/charging-six-electric-cars-at-once-could-cause-local-power-outages/">one British estimate</a>, as few as six cars charging at the same time on a street at peak times could lead to local brownouts (a drop in voltage supply). That might sound extreme, but it’s fair to say that daily electric car charging collectively shortens the life of electricity infrastructure such as transformers.</p>
<p>For this reason, my colleagues and I have researched <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8039201">smart charging strategies</a> aimed at preventing the peak load period for electric car charging from overlapping with the residential peak.</p>
<p>The issue is even more acute when using domestic renewable energy, because of the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234">duck curve</a>” – which shows the timing imbalance between peak demand and peak renewable energy production. As the name suggests, the graph is shaped like a duck.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234">Slash Australians’ power bills by beheading a duck at night </a>
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<p>The duck curve can be smoothed out with the help of power storage technologies such as batteries, and by behavioural change on the part of consumers (such as temporal load shifting).</p>
<h2>The right network</h2>
<p>Our model can also help electric vehicle owners find a nearby charging station with the least estimated waiting time and cost, in real time. This also opens up a new avenue for the electric utilities, which can work with charging service providers to adjust the prices at different charging locations so as to to distribute the load evenly across the charging network, and reduce waiting times into the bargain. </p>
<p>Unfortunately the utility companies don’t seem particularly interested yet, perhaps because it’s not an immediate problem. But it soon will be if the take-up of electric vehicles continues on its current trajectory.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/negative-charge-why-is-australia-so-slow-at-adopting-electric-cars-86478">Negative charge: why is Australia so slow at adopting electric cars?</a>
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<p>It’s unfortunate that Australia is lagging behind other developed countries when it comes to electric vehicle adoption. But this can work in our favour if we learn from other countries and take a more systematic approach. A lot can be achieved through proper planning.</p>
<p>In Australia we’ll need to see continued and better marketing of both the advantages of reducing emissions (electric vehicles are essential for the long-term decarbonisation of the electricity and transport sectors), as well as clearer cost-benefit analysis of the economic savings that can be made through personal and government investment in electric vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iftekhar Ahmad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The announcement of a new fast-charging network to link the major east coast cities will do much to encourage motorists to buy electric cars. But the power utilities need to get on board too.Iftekhar Ahmad, Associate Professor, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1029032018-09-10T06:05:40Z2018-09-10T06:05:40ZAt its current rate, Australia is on track for 50% renewable electricity in 2025<p>The Australian renewable energy industry will install more than 10 gigawatts of new solar and wind power during 2018 and 2019. If that rate is maintained, Australia would reach 50% renewables in 2025.</p>
<p>The recent demise of the <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/energy-security-board-%E2%80%93-final-detailed-design-national-energy-guarantee">National Energy Guarantee</a> saw the end of the fourth-best option for aligning climate and energy policy, following <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-too-hard-basket-a-short-history-of-australias-aborted-climate-policies-101812">earlier vetoes</a> by the Coalition party room on carbon pricing, an emissions intensity scheme, and the clean energy target.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-renewable-energy-train-is-unstoppable-the-neg-needs-to-get-on-board-101519">The renewable energy train is unstoppable. The NEG needs to get on board</a>
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<p>Yet despite the federal government’s policy paralysis, the renewable energy train just keeps on rolling.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://energy.anu.edu.au/files/Australia%27s%20renewable%20energy%20industry%20is%20delivering%20rapid%20and%20deep%20emissions%20cuts.pdf">analysis</a>, released today by the <a href="http://energy.anu.edu.au/">ANU Energy Change Institute</a>, shows that the Australian energy industry has now demonstrated the capacity to deliver 100% renewable electricity by the early 2030s, if the current rate of installations continues beyond the end of this decade.</p>
<h2>Record-breaking pace</h2>
<p>Last year was a record year for renewable energy in Australia, with 2,200 megawatts of capacity added. Based on data from the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/">Clean Energy Regulator</a>, during 2018 and 2019 Australia will install about 10,400MW of new renewable energy, comprising 7,200MW of large-scale renewables and 3,200MW of rooftop solar (see charts below). This new capacity is divided roughly equally between large-scale solar photovoltaics (PV), wind farms, and rooftop solar panels. This represents a per-capita rate of 224 watts per person per year, which is among the highest of any nation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235524/original/file-20180910-123128-15fyxs3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actual and probable deployment of large-scale (more than 0.1MW) systems in Australia. About 4,000MW per year is currently being installed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target-market-data">Clean Enegy Regulator/ANU</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235525/original/file-20180910-123131-po1nv1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Annual small-scale (less than 0.1MW) rooftop PV capacity additions including an estimate of 1,600MW for the whole of 2018 based on installations for the year to June.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au">Clean Energy Regulator/ANU</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>If the current rate of renewable energy installation continues, Australia will eclipse the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target-market-data#progress">large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET)</a>, reaching 29% renewable electricity in 2020 and 50% in 2025. It may even surpass <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/History-of-the-scheme">the original 41 terawatt-hour (TWh) target</a>, which was downgraded by the Abbott government to the current 33 TWh.</p>
<p>Our projections are based on the following assumptions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>demand (including behind-the-meter demand) remains constant. Demand has <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/National%20Energy%20Emissions%20Audit%20-%20Electricity%20Update%20July%202018.pdf">changed little in the past decade</a></p></li>
<li><p>large- and small-scale solar PV and wind power continue to be deployed at their current rates of 2,000MW, 1,600MW and 2,000MW per year, respectively </p></li>
<li><p>large- and small-scale solar PV and wind continue to have capacity factors of 21%, 15% and 40%, respectively</p></li>
<li><p>existing hydro and bio generation <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/g/files/net3411/f/energy-update-report-2017.pdf">remains constant at 20 terawatt-hours per year</a></p></li>
<li><p>fossil fuels meet the rapidly declining balance of demand.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>No subsidies needed</h2>
<p>Renewable energy developers are well aware of these projections, which indicate that they believe that little or no financial support is required for projects to be competitive in 2020 and beyond. </p>
<p>Indeed, the current price of carbon reduction from the government’s existing <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/government/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> (<a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/minister/frydenberg/media-releases/mr20180615a.html">A$12 per tonne</a>, equivalent to A$11 per MWh for a coal-fired power station (at <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market-blueprint-future">0.9 tonnes per MWh</a>), would be sufficient to finance many more renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>The current deployment rate might continue because:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Scheme-participants-and-industry/Power-stations/Large-scale-generation-certificates">large-scale generation certificates</a> will continue to be issued by the Clean Energy Regulator to accredited new renewables generators right up until 2030</p></li>
<li><p>renewable investment opportunities are broadening beyond the wholesale electricity market, as companies value the economic benefits and green profile of renewable energy supply contracts. For example, British steel magnate Sanjeev Gupta has announced plans to install <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/gupta-launches-1gw-renewable-plan-at-cultana-solar-project-67819/">more than 1GW of renewable energy at the Whyalla steelworks</a>, and Sun Metals in Townsville has already installed <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/no-need-for-new-coal-sun-metals-formally-opens-solar-farm-in-george-town-26798/">125MW of solar capacity</a></p></li>
<li><p>the price of wind and PV will continue to fall rapidly, opening up further market opportunities and putting <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-will-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-the-future-here-are-the-numbers-84433">downward pressure on electricity prices</a></p></li>
<li><p>increased use of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps for water and space heating are expected to increase electricity demand. This increased demand is expected to be met by wind and solar PV, which represent almost all new generation capacity in Australia</p></li>
<li><p>retiring existing coal power stations are being replaced by PV and wind.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>A renewables-powered grid</h2>
<p>As the electricity sector approaches and exceeds 50% renewables, more investment will be required in storage (like batteries and pumped hydro) and in high-voltage interconnections between regions to smooth out the effects of local weather and demand. </p>
<p>We have <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-net-cost-of-using-renewables-to-hit-australias-climate-target-nothing-88021">previously shown</a> the hourly cost of this grid balancing is about A$5 per MWh for a renewable energy fraction of 50%, rising to A$25 per MWh at 100% renewables.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235526/original/file-20180910-123122-avex2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modelled increase in annual PV and wind generation (TWh) and the consequent reduction in fossil generation based on extrapolation of current industry deployment rates for renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>What do our projections mean for Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions? In 2017 these emissions were <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science-data/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications/quarterly-update-australias-national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-dec-2017">534 megatonnes (MT)</a>. Under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, Australia has <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-australias-2030-climate-change-target">undertaken</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26%, from 612MT per year in 2005 to 453MT per year by 2030. This is a reduction of 81MT per year from current emissions. </p>
<p>We assume that all emission reductions are obtained within the electricity system through progressive closure of black coal power stations, which emit an average of <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market-blueprint-future">0.9 tonnes of carbon dioxide per MWh of electricity</a>. </p>
<p>On this basis, emissions in the electricity sector will decline by more than 26% in 2020-21, and will meet Australia’s entire Paris target of 26% reduction across all sectors of the economy (not just “electricity’s fair share”) in 2024-25.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-right-to-fund-energy-storage-a-100-renewable-grid-is-within-reach-72353">The government is right to fund energy storage: a 100% renewable grid is within reach</a>
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<p>Our analysis shows Australia’s renewable energy industry has the capacity to deliver deep and rapid emissions reductions. Direct government support for renewables would help, but it is no longer vital. </p>
<p>Government support for stronger high-voltage interstate interconnectors and large-scale storage projects (like the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro proposal) will allow 50-100% renewables to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-net-cost-of-using-renewables-to-hit-australias-climate-target-nothing-88021">smoothly integrated into the Australian grid</a>. What is crucial is government policy certainty that will enable the renewable industry to realise its potential to deliver deep emissions cuts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Stocks receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. </span></em></p>Australia could be getting half of its electricity from renewable energy by 2025, even without government subsidies for new wind and solar projects, according to a new analysis of energy industry trends.Ken Baldwin, Director, Energy Change Institute, Australian National UniversityAndrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityMatthew Stocks, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1018502018-08-30T12:18:16Z2018-08-30T12:18:16ZThe energy industry is being disrupted – and traditional firms can’t keep up<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234252/original/file-20180830-195304-1arjkeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C341%2C3794%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sergey Nivens / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The electricity sector is experiencing a profound disruptive shock. This is due to technological innovation including the falling costs of renewables and energy storage, along with tougher environmental policies and regulatory reform. </p>
<p>These changes are most apparent in Australia, the EU and parts of North America, where once-powerful utility companies are struggling or restructuring to survive. But, as I’ve looked at in a <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/power-flexibility-survival-utilities-during-transformations-power-sector">recent report</a>, decision-makers elsewhere are asking whether these power markets are outliers or if they herald a global shift.</p>
<p>Global investment in renewable energy – excluding large hydropower – was <a href="http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-report-2018">just under US$279 billion</a> in 2017, a rise of 2% on the previous year. Wind and solar account for most of this. In fact, as technology and installation becomes cheaper, non-hydro renewables accounted for 61% of all the new installed power capacity (that’s including all fossil fuel, nuclear and hydro) across the world in 2017.</p>
<p>If we are to address climate change, such changes must continue. While the construction of wind and solar was initially stimulated by decarbonisation policy, now it is driven by economics. As renewables continue to be deployed, they become ever cheaper to build and install. Solar is already at least as cheap as coal in Germany, Australia, the US, Spain and Italy. By 2021, it is also expected to be <a href="https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/">cheaper than coal</a> in China.</p>
<p>Integrating all this new power may become costly. National power systems have been designed for centralised coal or gas power stations, after all, which can more easily be switched on and off to ensure supply meets demand. Things are much more challenging when renewables are involved, as the sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow.</p>
<h2>A new energy system is emerging</h2>
<p>Innovations in energy storage and digital technology promise to keep these costs down, but the big traditional utilities are failing to keep pace. This has left new actors free to provide new technologies and business models.</p>
<p>Storage is a key technological element of the new system. Fortunately, the development of electric vehicles (EV), to address climate change and localised pollution, is being seen as a key driver of change for transport and power sectors. EV sales are set to increase dramatically, stimulated by recent government targets and policy support, while the prices of lithium-ion batteries <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a6e01984-3567-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e">decline sharply</a>. </p>
<p>A plethora of large and powerful car manufacturers are getting into electric vehicles, prompted by government sales targets and the speed at which the total cost of owning an EV is approaching that of a traditional petrol car. Honda wants <a href="https://de.reuters.com/article/honda-strategy/honda-to-focus-on-self-driving-cars-robotics-evs-through-2030-idUKL8N1J42GB">two-thirds of its sales</a> to be electric or hybrid by 2030, BMW is aiming for <a href="https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/bmw/101951/bmw-s-electric-car-future-mapped-out-25-pure-evs-and-hybrids-by-2025">15–25% by 2025</a>, while both Volvo and Jaguar Land Rover are targeting <a href="https://www.jaguarlandrover.com/news/2017/09/every-jaguar-and-land-rover-launched-2020-will-be-electrified">100% by 2020</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234258/original/file-20180830-195328-1dqkv5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nissan has moved into the home battery market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/04/nissan-launches-british-made-home-battery-to-rival-teslas-powerwall">Eaton/Nissan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of these companies are now making use of their manufacturing capabilities and moving into <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/nissan-solar-panels-home-batteries/">selling home storage units for electricity</a>, which aren’t too different from an electric car’s battery. These storage units mean that people with solar panels will be able to consume more of their own electricity. This is further reducing the market for traditional firms and creating new competitors as some of the world’s largest manufacturing companies enter the power sector for the first time.</p>
<h2>Going digital</h2>
<p>As in many other sectors, digitalisation is another disruptive change. Smart meters in particular mean energy firms can better monitor and understand their customers, which enables even more flexibility – imagine energy supplies tailored to individual households and times of day. </p>
<p>These increasingly complex electricity systems will rely on machine learning algorithms to know when and where energy will be needed. Internet giants like <a href="http://energypost.eu/coming-soon-the-amazon-of-energy/">Google and Amazon</a> are already piloting and exploring the opportunities. Who would bet against Amazon becoming a major power supplier in the next decade? Blockchain technology could also enable a <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/40479952/this-blockchain-based-energy-platform-is-building-a-peer-to-peer-grid">peer to peer energy market</a>, allowing neighbours to sell excess power to one another and potentially further reducing the role of traditional firms.</p>
<p>Over the past few years, there have been significant changes in the power sector, resulting in declining profits and the restructuring of traditional utilities. However, looking forward, the electrification of the transport and eventually heat sectors, and increasing digitalisation is likely to lead to far more significant disruption than we have seen to date. This will bring in a whole new set of companies and potentially engage consumers like never before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antony Froggatt receives funding from CLP Group and the MAVA Foundation and is a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. </span></em></p>Digitalisation and better energy storage are reshaping the electricity market.Antony Froggatt, Associate Member, Energy Policy Group, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/947952018-06-08T10:52:24Z2018-06-08T10:52:24ZThe nuclear industry is making a big bet on small power plants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222045/original/file-20180606-137322-1jdd1qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NuScale Power aims to build the nation's first advanced small modular reactor.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/small-modular-nuclear-reactors">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until now, generating nuclear power has required massive facilities surrounded by acres of buildings, electrical infrastructure, roads, parking lots and more. The nuclear industry is trying to change that picture – by going small.</p>
<p>Efforts to build the nation’s first “advanced small modular reactor,” or SMR, <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/04/nuscale-small-modular-nuclear-reactor-first-ever-to-complete-nrc-phase-1-review.html">in Idaho</a>, are on track for it to become operational by the mid-2020s. The project took a crucial step forward when the company behind it, NuScale, secured an <a href="http://newsroom.nuscalepower.com/press-release/company/nuscale-powers-small-modular-nuclear-reactor-becomes-first-ever-complete-nucle">important security certification</a> from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. </p>
<p>But the first ones could be generating power <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-expands-international-cooperation-on-small-medium-sized-or-modular-nuclear-reactors">by 2020 in China, Argentina and Russia</a>, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. </p>
<p>The debate continues over whether this technology is worth pursuing, but the <a href="http://smrstart.org/">nuclear industry</a> isn’t waiting for a verdict. Nor, as an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dCRySjIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">energy scholar</a>, do I think it should. This new generation of smaller and more technologically advanced reactors offer many advantages, including an assembly-line approach to production, vastly reduced meltdown risks and greater flexibility in terms of where they can be located, among others. </p>
<h2>How small is small?</h2>
<p>Most small modular reactors <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx">now in the works</a> range between 50 megawatts – roughly enough power for 60,000 <a href="http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/average-household-electricity-consumption">modern U.S. homes</a> – and 200 megawatts. And there are designs for even smaller “mini” or “micro-reactors” that generate <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/03/4-megawatt-modular-micro-nuclear.html">as few as 4 megawatts</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, full-sized nuclear reactors built today will generate about 1,000-1,600 megawatts of electricity, although many built before 1990, including over half the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=104&t=3">99 reactors now operating in the U.S.</a>, are smaller than this. </p>
<p>But small nuclear reactors aren’t actually new. India has the most, with 18 <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/india.aspx">reactors with capacity ranging between 90 and 220 megawatts</a>, which were built between 1981 and 2011.</p>
<p>The U.S., Russia, China, India, France and the U.K. operate <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx">hundreds of nuclear submarines</a> and aircraft carriers. Russia has dozens of nuclear-powered icebreakers cruising around the Arctic, and its first <a href="https://gizmodo.com/russias-floating-nuclear-power-plant-has-hit-the-sea-1825650002%22%22">floating nuclear power plant</a> has been completed and will be deployed in 2019 near the town of Pevek in East Siberia. </p>
<p>The Siberian plant will replace <a href="https://insp.pnnl.gov/-profiles-bilibino-bi.htm">four 12-megawatt reactors the Soviets built in the 1970s</a> to power a remote town and administrative center, as well as mining and oil drilling operations.</p>
<p>Even though the reactors will be small, they may operate at much bigger power plants with multiple reactors. NuScale, for example, wants to install 12 reactors at its initial Idaho site. Based on the company’s latest projections, it will have a <a href="http://newsroom.nuscalepower.com/press-release/company/breakthrough-nuscale-power-increase-its-smr-output-delivers-customers-20-perce">total capacity of 720 megawatts</a>.</p>
<h2>A global trend</h2>
<p>Private and state-owned companies are seeking to build these small power plants in about <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx">a dozen countries</a> so far, including the U.S. and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nuclear-smr/nuclear-developers-have-big-plans-for-pint-sized-power-plants-in-uk-idUSKCN10X1FC">the U.K.</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/france-nuclearpower-smr/france-considers-developing-mini-nuclear-reactors-eyes-cost-idUSL8N1QX6WS">France</a>, which gets three-quarters of its electricity from <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx">nuclear energy</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-nuclear-power-reactors-future-or-folly-81252">Canada</a> may soon join the fray.</p>
<p>This global interest in small modular reactors comes as <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/decommissioning-nuclear-facilities.aspx">more standard nuclear reactors are being decommissioned</a> than <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx">are under construction</a>. </p>
<h2>Some advantages</h2>
<p>Proponents of these advanced small modular reactors say they will be <a href="http://www.nuscalepower.com/why-smr">easier to build and more flexible in terms of where they can be located</a> than the larger kind. The word “modular” refers to how they will be built in factory-like settings, ready for hauling either fully assembled or in easily connected parts by truck, rail or sea. </p>
<p>These reactors can potentially power rural towns, industrial plants, mountainous areas and military bases, as well as urban districts and ports. Small modular reactors may also prove handy for industrial uses.</p>
<p>Small modular reactors will differ from the smaller reactors already deployed because of their new technologies. These advances are intended to make it less likely or even <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/01/24/can-we-make-a-nuclear-reactor-that-wont-melt-down/#3a5ccf195b7e">impossible for them to melt down or explode</a>, as happened during <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx">Japan’s Fukushima disaster</a>.</p>
<p>The power plants where these small reactors will be located will have added protections against sabotage and the theft of radioactive material. For example, they may be equipped with <a href="http://www.nuscalepower.com/smr-benefits/safe">cooling systems that continue working</a> even if no operators are present and all electric power is lost. In many cases, the entire reactor and steam-generating equipment will be below ground to safeguard these facilities during natural disasters like the earthquake and tsunamis that led three Fukushima Daiichi reactors to melt down. </p>
<p>Like renewable energy, nuclear power emits no carbon. And compared to wind and solar power, which are intermittent sources, or hydropower, which is affected by seasonal changes and droughts, it operates all the time and has a much smaller footprint.</p>
<p>As a result, small modular reactors could be <a href="https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:43012344">paired with renewable sources</a> as a substitute for coal-fired or natural gas plants. Yet they will probably have to compete with advanced <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-energy-storage-is-starting-to-rewire-the-electricity-industry-93259">energy storage systems</a> for that market. </p>
<h2>Concerns and costs</h2>
<p>Whether these advantages materialize, obviously, remains to be seen once these reactors are deployed. <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/got-science-podcast/ed-lyman#.Wxk8-kgvxPY">Some experts are skeptical</a> of the industry’s promises and expectations.</p>
<p>Although small modular reactors are designed to produce <a href="https://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201701/reactors.cfm">less radioactive waste</a> than standard, bigger reactors for the same amount of power, the issue of where to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-federal-government-has-long-treated-nevada-as-a-dumping-ground-and-its-not-just-yucca-mountain-96700">safely dispose of nuclear waste</a> remains unresolved. </p>
<p>Small modular reactors face other challenges, some of their own making.</p>
<p>Strong interest in the potential global market has led many companies to propose their own individual reactor designs. In my opinion, there are already too many versions out there. Before long, a shakeout will occur.</p>
<p>And, especially in the U.S., there is currently no clarity regarding the length of time required for licensing new reactor designs lacking any commercial track record – creating a lot of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rodadams/2017/01/09/nrc-vision-and-strategy-for-licensing-advanced-reactors-needs-improvement/#793becf81bcb">regulatory uncertainty</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also unclear what small modular reactor-generated power will cost. That will probably remain the case for at least the next 10 to 15 years, until a few designs are actually built and operating.</p>
<p>Some experts foresee small modular reactors penciling out at levels that could be <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/interest-in-small-modular-nuclear-grows#gs.3ln6s0E">higher than for full-sized reactors</a> which generally <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf">cost more to build</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html">operate</a> than other options, like natural gas, for the same amount of power. NuScale, however, predicts that its SMRs will be <a href="http://www.powermag.com/nuscale-boosts-smr-capacity-making-it-cost-competitive-with-other-technologies/">more competitive</a> than that in terms of their cost.</p>
<p>And some observers fear that reactor owners might <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nuclear_power/small-isnt-always-beautiful.pdf">cut corners</a> to reduce costs, compromising safety or security.</p>
<p>Although their costs are unclear and their advantages relative to other energy choices remain unproven, I believe these small reactors, as non-carbon sources, are needed to help resolve the energy challenges of our time. And the rest of the world seems ready to give them a try with or without the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Advanced small modular reactors, known as SMRs, will probably have many advantages over older technology. But it’s not yet known how they will stack up against other sources of electricity.Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer, Jackson School of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/920292018-02-26T19:14:08Z2018-02-26T19:14:08ZSmart electricity meters are here, but more is needed to make them useful to customers<p>Across most of Australia, the electricity industry is in the midst of a <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/29328539-8eb5-4c34-952d-2a44ab5d12c5/Information-sheet-consumer-benefits.PDF">major rollout</a> of so-called “smart meters” led by retailers – your household may very well have one already. </p>
<p>With the exception of Western Australia and the Northern Territory (and Victoria which <a href="http://www.smartmeters.vic.gov.au/">has them already</a>), all new and replacement meters will now be smart. This means that instead of simply recording electricity use for later checking, they can give retailers detailed consumption data, measured at 30-minute intervals or less – and also allow the supply to be turned on or off remotely.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-meters-dont-make-us-any-smarter-about-energy-use-23057">Smart meters don't make us any smarter about energy use
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<p>Retailers can also offer to upgrade select customers’ existing meters to smart meters (again with the exception of Victoria, which has a blanket rollout), and consumers are free to accept or decline (except where a broken or ageing meter is being replaced).</p>
<p>This is an important testing ground for the soon-to-be legislated <a href="https://ministers.pmc.gov.au/taylor/2017/australians-own-their-own-banking-energy-phone-and-internet-data">Consumer Data Right</a>, which aims to give consumers better access to their own data, which in turn will help them save money.</p>
<p>But our <a href="http://geography.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/2685643/Smart-er-meter-policy-230218.pdf">research</a> has found that under the current policy settings consumers are not getting the full range of benefits from the smart meter rollout, for a few main reasons. </p>
<h2>Getting smart on bills</h2>
<p>The main consumer benefit of a smart meter is to reduce electricity bills. But to do this, consumers need easy access to their daily electricity usage data, which can then be translated into useful information that enables them to compare tariffs. Consumers ought to be able choose such value-added services from third party providers by granting access to this data. </p>
<p>But consumers cannot currently access their daily electricity usage data <a href="http://www.drmartingill.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Ensuring-Consumers-Benefit-from-Smart-Meters-v01.pdf">when they need it free of charge</a>. There is no common data format nor a simple way to authorise third-party access to the data, thus creating extra costs for third parties. </p>
<p>Retailers can charge a fee to access consumer data, effectively blocking rival companies that might be offering cheaper retail tariffs. But if consumers themselves could allow third parties to access their metering data, subject to security and <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/engage-with-us/submissions/data-availability-and-use-submission-to-productivity-commission-issues-paper">privacy</a> protections, it would give those consumers a much wider choice of tariffs and services.</p>
<p>Currently the federal government’s <a href="https://www.energymadeeasy.gov.au/about-us">Energy Made Easy</a> website (run by the Australian Energy Regulator) does not let consumers compare tariffs and services in a timely and user-friendly way. There are <a href="http://energyconsumersaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Electricity-Meter-Data-Portability-Discussion-Paper.pdf">proposals</a> to reform the website, and there is no shortage of good existing examples on which it might be modelled, such as the Victorian government’s <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/news/switch-on.html">Switch On</a> and the <a href="http://www.greenbuttondata.org/">North American Green Button initiative</a>.</p>
<h2>Getting involved</h2>
<p>It is not enough that these tools simply exist; consumers must be actively encouraged to use them. This involves a wide-ranging, effective and ongoing consumer education campaign. </p>
<p>While there are highly active energy “prosumers” who generate and sell their own power and actively monitor and manage their energy use, most households <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/b7474c0b-8f1b-4e62-87ed-6aa551f3649d/2017-retail-competition-infographic-2-FINAL.pdf">do not fall into this category</a>. </p>
<p>Most customers <a href="http://energyconsumersaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Consumer-Sentiment-Survey-Key-Findings-June2017.pdf">need information</a> and encouragement to take up opportunities arising out of smart meter data. This will require much better communications by governments, retailers, networks, consumers and community organisations as an integral part of the smart meter rollout.</p>
<h2>No one left behind</h2>
<p>Electricity is an essential service, and policymakers need to ensure that the benefits of smart meters flow to everyone, not just the most switched-on customers. </p>
<p>Even with the help of the tools and campaigns described above, there are those who may still miss out on the benefits – such as, for example, vulnerable consumers who engage with smart meters but end up making poor choices through a lack of financial or digital literacy. </p>
<p>What’s more, remotely read meters make it <a href="https://www.vinnies.org.au/content/Document/VIC/2016-June-Households-in-the-dark2.pdf">easier to disconnect users</a>, which again is likely to disproportionately affect the most vulnerable members of the community. Adequate consumer protections need to be built into the smart meter rollout. This involves ensuring that hardship provisions in the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-markets/national-energy-customer-framework">National Energy Customer Framework</a>, concessions, and information provision keeps pace with developments in the metering market. </p>
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<p>The retailer-led rollout is likely to be slow and could lead to a highly uneven patchwork of meters across Australia, and therefore uneven customer benefits. There are many reasons for this. Existing “dumb” meters have a long useful life and regularly last more than 30 years (some are more than 40 years old!); there is a lack of scale in the deployment by retailers who do not have contracts with all customers in a local area; certain customer groups may be deemed “uneconomic” by retailers and not offered new meters; and households in areas with poor mobile network coverage (most likely rural and regional areas) are unlikely to be offered a smart meter. </p>
<p>Such a large-scale rollout of new meters, which is piecemeal in some places and not in others, is bound to be difficult and there is no perfect model. The market for smart meters is in its infancy and needs careful monitoring and evaluation as it develops. But policymakers nevertheless need to get on the front foot and guarantee simple access to smart meter data and services for all consumers; actively encourage and demonstrate to consumers how these services can lower their electricity costs; and most of all ensure that no one is left behind in this emerging market. </p>
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<p><em>This article was coauthored by Gavin Dufty, Policy and Research Manager, <a href="https://www.vinnies.org.au/page/Our_Impact/Incomes_Support_Cost_of_Living/Energy/VINNIES_NATIONAL/">St Vincent de Paul</a>, and <a href="http://www.drmartingill.com.au/">Dr Martin Gill</a>, an independent energy consultant and consumer advocate who has previously developed smart metering products.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Martin Gill has previously developed electricity metering products.
</span></em></p>You may already have a smart meter at home, which monitors your electricity use at 30-minute intervals. But until you can access that data yourself, you could be missing out on the best power deals.Sangeetha Chandrashekeran, Lecturer in Geography and Deputy Director Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/888322018-01-10T11:39:02Z2018-01-10T11:39:02ZRejection of subsidies for coal and nuclear power is a win for fact-based policymaking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201407/original/file-20180109-36016-izojvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coal stockpile at Valley Power Plant, Milwaukee, Wis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/aun6Mc">Michael Pereckas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Energy Secretary Rick Perry has repeatedly expressed concern over the past year about the reliability of our national electric power grid. On Sept. 28, 2017, Perry <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Secretary%20Rick%20Perry%27s%20Letter%20to%20the%20Federal%20Energy%20Regulatory%20Commission.pdf_">ordered</a> the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to revise wholesale electricity market rules to help ensure “… a reliable, resilient electric grid powered by an ‘all of the above’ mix of generation resources.” Perry’s proposal included an implicit subsidy to owners of coal and nuclear power plants, to compensate them for keeping a 90-day fuel supply on-site in the event of a disruption to the grid.</p>
<p>On Jan. 8, FERC issued a statement, supported by all five commissioners, <a href="https://elibrary.ferc.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?document_id=14633130">terminating</a> Perry’s proposal. The commissioners held that paying generators to store fuel on-site would only benefit some fuel types. And although coal and nuclear plants are retiring in large numbers, commissioners were not persuaded that this was due to unfair pricing in power markets.</p>
<p>In my view, FERC made an appropriate and well-grounded decision. The commission opted to gather more information and examine many possible approaches to improving reliability, instead of rubber-stamping a directive that had not been fully vetted. The commission’s action is a good example of the kind of evidence-based policymaking that Americans should expect from the federal government.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>What makes the power system reliable?</h2>
<p>There is no question that our electricity supply is changing rapidly. As of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3">2016</a>, over one-third of U.S. electricity generation at utility-scale facilities came from natural gas, followed by coal at 30 percent and nuclear power at nearly 20 percent. Renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower provide nearly 15 percent, up from just 8.5 percent in 2007. </p>
<p>Technology advances and cost decreases for renewables, particularly solar and wind, are the key factors driving their growth. Meanwhile, <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2017/10/06/the-decline-of-coal/">coal</a> and <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/kcvrkom2z1d4cef/Whats_Killing_Nuclear-MIT_CEEPR_WP%202018-001.pdf?dl=0">nuclear</a> plants, which are less economically competitive, are retiring at high rates.</p>
<p>As the eastern United States emerges from a <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-01-01-arctic-record-cold-outbreak-forecast-midwest-east-south-early-january">record-setting deep freeze</a>, we all can appreciate the importance of reliable energy supplies. Indeed, 2017 was a <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2017-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historic-year">record-breaking year for weather and climate disasters</a>, from hail and tornadoes to three major hurricanes striking U.S. soil. </p>
<p>Many of these events disrupted vital power supplies. Notably, as of late December nearly half of Puerto Rico’s electricity customers – more than 600,000 people – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/officials-nearly-half-of-puerto-rico-clients-without-power/2017/12/29/f8836754-ece2-11e7-956e-baea358f9725_story.html?utm_term=.dc9cd0469d56">still lacked electric power</a> in the wake of Hurricane Maria.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Perry’s proposal assumed that storing extra fuel on-site at generating plants would make the grid more resilient against disasters that could interrupt fuel deliveries. But resilience is not just a matter of having fuel close at hand.</p>
<p>Recognizing this, FERC’s order included a new study of the resilience of the “bulk power system” – the part of the electric grid that includes generation and transmission facilities, which are interconnected across regions. If this system is disrupted in any way, the impacts can be felt across wide areas. </p>
<p>The commission directed operators that manage regional power networks across the nation to submit information within 60 days on the resilience of the system, and to advise on whether FERC needs to take additional actions to improve it. This approach makes clear that the FERC commissioners want more evidence before they make any calls for actions such as subsidizing marginal fuel supplies.</p>
<h2>Look at the evidence</h2>
<p>Whether FERC commissioners know it or not, their approach follows many recommendations set forth recently by a national <a href="https://www.cep.gov/">Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking</a>. This panel was created in 2016 through <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/1831">legislation</a> co-sponsored by House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator Patty Murray of Washington. Its task was to examine how federal agencies use data, research and evaluation to build evidence, and to strengthen those efforts in order to make better policies.</p>
<p>“You always hear people in Washington talk about how much money was spent on a program, but you rarely hear whether it actually worked. That has to change,” <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/press-release/evidence-based-policy-commission-gets-to-work">Ryan said</a>, when the commission was established. “This panel will give us the tools to make better decisions and achieve better results.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">New York City during a major winter storm, Jan. 4, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/PGroup-RW-MediaPunch-IPx-A-ENT-New-York-USA-IPX-/3f0dffa67cd44a0c954ca76715e5e764/66/0">RW/MediaPunch/IPX</a></span>
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<p>In its <a href="https://www.cep.gov/cep-final-report.html">final report</a> issued on Sept. 7, 2017, the commission noted the importance of securing and making accessible data which can be used for effective policymaking. To most casual observers, this may seem straightforward. Why would you want to change a policy, which could affect many consumers and businesses, without first looking at the data and understanding all of the potential impacts of a change? </p>
<p>In reality, data can be disputed (think “fake” data), and policies can be motivated by political ideology. Policy choices could become detached from the evidence and fail to incorporate the pros and cons or seek consensus. </p>
<p>In this case, however, FERC’s 5-0 decision shows that the commissioners agreed on their course, and it appears that policymaking based on evidence won the day. This decision had the potential to affect millions of electricity customers, as well as power markets and the environment. FERC deserves congratulations for putting evidence before action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ellen Hughes-Cromwick is a member of the National Association for Business Economics. She served as chief economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce from November 2015 to January 2017.</span></em></p>The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has rejected a Trump administration proposal to reward coal and nuclear power plants for storing fuel on-site, as a way to make the power system more reliable.Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Senior Economist and Interim Associate Director of Social Science and Policy, University of Michigan Energy Institute, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/816782017-08-02T20:17:04Z2017-08-02T20:17:04ZSolar is now the most popular form of new electricity generation worldwide<p>Solar has become the world’s favourite new type of electricity generation, according to global data showing that <a href="http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report">more solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is being installed than any other generation technology</a>.</p>
<p>Worldwide, some 73 gigawatts of net new solar PV capacity was installed in 2016. Wind energy came in second place (55GW), with coal relegated to third (52GW), followed by gas (37GW) and hydro (28GW).</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tCtqa/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Together, PV and wind represent <a href="http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/">5.5% of current energy generation</a> (as at the end of 2016), but crucially they constituted almost half of all net new generation capacity installed worldwide during last year.</p>
<p>It is probable that construction of new coal power stations will decline, possibly quite rapidly, because PV and wind are now cost-competitive almost everywhere.</p>
<p>Hydro is still important in developing countries that still have rivers to dam. Meanwhile, other low-emission technologies such as nuclear, bio-energy, solar thermal and geothermal have small market shares. </p>
<p>PV and wind now have such large advantages in terms of cost, production scale and supply chains that it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-and-solar-pv-have-won-the-race-its-too-late-for-other-clean-energy-technologies-61503">difficult to see any other low-emissions technology challenging them</a> within the next decade or so. </p>
<p>That is certainly the case in Australia, where PV and wind comprise virtually all new generation capacity, and where solar PV capacity is <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-solar-market-heads-12gw-2020/">set to reach 12GW by 2020</a>. Wind and solar PV are being <a href="http://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/2017/May/2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedented.html">installed at a combined rate of about 3GW per year</a>, driven largely by the federal government’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy-target-scheme">Renewable Energy Target (RET)</a>. </p>
<p>This is double to triple the rate of recent years, and a welcome return to growth after several years of subdued activity due to political uncertainty over the RET.</p>
<p>If this rate is maintained, then by 2030 more than half of Australian electricity will come from renewable energy and Australia will have met its <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-australias-2030-climate-change-target">pledge under the Paris climate agreement</a> purely through emissions savings within the electricity industry.</p>
<p>To take the idea further, if Australia were to double the current combined PV and wind installation rate to 6GW per year, it would reach 100% renewable electricity in about 2033. <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/resources/assets/1708BlakersREAust.pdf">Modelling by my research group</a> suggests that this would not be difficult, given that these technologies are now cheaper than electricity from new-build coal and gas.</p>
<h2>Renewable future in reach</h2>
<p>The prescription for an affordable, stable and achievable 100% renewable electricity grid is relatively straightforward:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Use mainly PV and wind.</strong> These technologies are cheaper than other low-emission technologies, and Australia has plenty of sunshine and wind, which is why these technologies have already been widely deployed. This means that, compared with other renewables, they have more reliable price projections, and avoid the need for heroic assumptions about the success of more speculative clean energy options.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Distribute generation over a very large area.</strong> Spreading wind and PV facilities over wide areas – say a million square kilometres from north Queensland to Tasmania – allows access to a wide range of different weather, and also helps to smooth out peaks in users’ demand.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Build interconnectors.</strong> Link up the wide-ranging network of PV and wind with high-voltage power lines of the type already used to move electricity between states.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Add storage.</strong> Storage can help match up energy generation with demand patterns. The cheapest option is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pushing-water-uphill-can-solve-our-renewable-energy-issues-28196">pumped hydro energy storage (PHES)</a>, with support from <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-can-teslas-giant-south-australian-battery-achieve-80738">batteries</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/managing-demand-can-save-two-power-stations-worth-of-energy-at-peak-times-78173">demand management</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Australia currently has three PHES systems – <a href="http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-energy/hydro/the-assets/power-stations/">Tumut 3</a>, <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/who-we-are/what-we-do/generation.html">Kangaroo Valley</a>, and <a href="http://www.csenergy.com.au/content-(168)-wivenhoe.htm">Wivenhoe</a> – all of which are on rivers. But there is a vast number of potential off-river sites.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1008&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1008&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180664/original/file-20170802-11377-o59xdy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1008&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Potential sites for pumped hydro storage in Queensland, alongside development sites for solar PV (yellow) and wind energy (green). Galilee Basin coal prospects are shown in black.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Blakers/Margaret Blakers</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a <a href="https://arena.gov.au/projects/atlas-pumped-hydro-energy-storage/">project</a> funded by the <a href="https://arena.gov.au/">Australian Renewable Energy Agency</a>, we have identified about <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/research/phes">5,000 sites</a> in South Australia, Queensland, Tasmania, the Canberra district, and the Alice Springs district that are potentially suitable for pumped hydro storage.</p>
<p>Each of these sites has between 7 and 1,000 times the storage potential of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-can-teslas-giant-south-australian-battery-achieve-80738">Tesla battery currently being installed to support the South Australian grid</a>. What’s more, pumped hydro has a lifetime of 50 years, compared with 8-15 years for batteries. </p>
<p>Importantly, most of the prospective PHES sites are located near where people live and where new PV and wind farms are being constructed. </p>
<p>Once the search for sites in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia is complete, we expect to uncover <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/resources/assets/1708BlakersREAust.pdf">70-100 times more PHES energy storage potential than required to support a 100% renewable electricity grid in Australia</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180151/original/file-20170728-32241-1rtp6vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Potential PHES upper reservoir sites east of Port Augusta, South Australia. The lower reservoirs would be at the western foot of the hills (bottom of the image).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth/ANU</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Managing the grid</h2>
<p>Fossil fuel generators currently provide another service to the grid, besides just generating electricity. They help to balance supply and demand, on timescales down to seconds, through the “inertial energy” stored in their heavy spinning generators.</p>
<p>But in the future this service can be performed by similar generators used in pumped hydro systems. And supply and demand can also be matched with the help of fast-response batteries, demand management, and “synthetic inertia” from PV and wind farms.</p>
<p>Wind and PV are delivering ever tougher competition for gas throughout the energy market. The price of large-scale wind and PV in 2016 was <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/resources/assets/1708BlakersREAust.pdf">A$65-78 per megawatt hour</a>. This is below the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#average-price-table">current wholesale price of electricity</a> in the National Electricity Market. </p>
<p>Abundant anecdotal evidence suggests that wind and PV energy price has fallen to A$60-70 per MWh this year as the industry takes off. Prices are likely to dip below A$50 per MWh within a few years, to match current international benchmark prices. Thus, the net cost of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system over the next 15 years is zero compared with continuing to build and maintain facilities for the current fossil-fuelled system.</p>
<p>Gas can no longer compete with wind and PV for delivery of electricity. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cheapest-way-to-heat-your-home-with-renewable-energy-just-flick-a-switch-47087">Electric heat pumps</a> are driving gas out of water and space heating. Even for delivery of high-temperature heat for industry, gas must cost less than A$10 per gigajoule to compete with electric furnaces powered by wind and PV power costing A$50 per MWh.</p>
<p>Importantly, the more that low-cost PV and wind is deployed in the current high-cost electricity environment, the more they will reduce prices.</p>
<p>Then there is the issue of other types of energy use besides electricity – such as transport, heating, and industry. The cheapest way to make these energy sources green is to electrify virtually everything, and then plug them into an electricity grid powered by renewables. </p>
<p>A 55% reduction in Australian greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by conversion of the electricity grid to renewables, together with mass adoption of electric vehicles for land transport and electric heat pumps for heating and cooling. Beyond this, we can develop renewable electric-driven pathways to manufacture hydrocarbon-based fuels and chemicals, primarily through electrolysis of water to obtain hydrogen and carbon capture from the atmosphere, to achieve an 83% reduction in emissions (with the residual 17% of emissions coming mainly from agriculture and land clearing).</p>
<p>Doing all of this would mean tripling the amount of electricity we produce, according to my research group’s preliminary estimate.</p>
<p>But there is no shortage of solar and wind energy to achieve this, and prices are rapidly falling. We can build a clean energy future at modest cost if we want to.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from The Australian Renewable Energy Agency, the Australian Research Council and similar sources.</span></em></p>Solar PV and wind energy have overtaken coal as the leading sources of new electricity generation worldwide, with falling prices and new storage technologies making clean energy ever more attainable.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/643792016-08-25T14:28:44Z2016-08-25T14:28:44ZIt’s time South Africa learnt from others and overhauled its power sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135309/original/image-20160824-30259-g1o7o0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Load shedding has stopped in South Africa over the last year but that doesn't mean the country's power problems are all gone.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has not had load shedding for nearly a <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/stnews/2016/05/06/No-more-load-shedding-for-South-Africa---Zuma">year</a>. This is a welcome development after years of power cuts that constrained economic growth. Electricity consumption has more or less flattened out, giving the national utility, Eskom, more space to catch up on maintenance and meet demand. </p>
<p>But all is not well in the country’s electricity sector.</p>
<p>There are challenges around rising costs and <a href="https://twitter.com/AntonEberhard/status/766130081488068608">electricity tariffs</a>. Further improvements are needed in technical and commercial performance. And Eskom has to raise sufficient finance to complete its investment programme. This comes at a time when National Treasury has no fiscal space for further equity injections.</p>
<p>On top of this, municipal electricity distributors are not investing adequately in maintenance and service delivery. This could have catastrophic consequences for security and reliability of supply in the future.</p>
<p>The current period provides an opportune time to consider the electricity sector’s medium and long-term future. Is the sector’s current structure fit-for-purpose? Does it provide a sustainable platform to achieve national goals and objectives?</p>
<p>What the economy and people want from the sector is instinctively and practically clear: access to electricity that is adequate, reliable and affordable as well as competitive prices in the case of business. And this should be accomplished within the bounds of environmental sustainability and transparent governance frameworks to attract enough investment to meet current and future needs.</p>
<p>At the moment it is not clear that the current structure can achieve these goals. This suggests that alternatives should be considered.</p>
<h2>The case for restructuring</h2>
<p>The past three decades have seen fundamental reform and restructuring of electricity sectors in countries <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.eg.20.110195.001003">all over the world</a>. The old model, of a vertically integrated, state-owned monopoly, has been challenged. <a href="http://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/power-sector">New models have been explored</a> and adopted that involve different levels of integration or unbundling, competition and public or private ownership. </p>
<p>It is striking that South Africa’s electricity sector has been largely immune to these global developments. In recent years there’s been private investment in a number of renewable energy independent power projects. But Eskom is now <a href="http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/07/21/eskom-cuts-off-private-power">arguing</a> that it doesn’t need them.</p>
<p>The question of private or public should be unshackled from ideological predispositions. Debates around private participation in the electricity sector are often contentious. This includes whether privately owned entities <a href="http://www.biznews.com/sa-investing/2016/02/05/fixing-eskom-gordhan-v-molefe-as-privatisation-option-gets-public-airing/">are more efficient than public utilities</a>. The country needs to consider restructuring proposals only in terms of whether they will support national economic and social development goals.</p>
<p>Choices range from a fully state-owned electricity sector to one which is fully privatised, or somewhere in between. </p>
<p>In fact, South Africa already has a hybrid system. State-owned Eskom and local government distributors are complemented by private independent power projects. Eskom has been unable to fund all the country’s electricity needs. <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/ratings-industrialisation-and-investment-at-stake-as-eskom-moves-against-ipps-2016-08-05>">Over the past four years</a> independent power projects have mobilised close to R200bn in private investment.</p>
<p>It would seem sensible to retain a mixed electricity market – especially in power generation so that the country can secure adequate, timely and cost-effective capital investment.</p>
<p>But if the state were to countenance privatisation, it would be a mistake to allow private investment in an unstructured, vertically-integrated dominant Eskom. This would repeat the mistakes made in the privatisation of <a href="http://www.telkom.co.za/today/">Telkom</a>. There the strategic private partner used Telkom’s monopoly to frustrate the entry and growth of new private players in the sector. It also maintained high prices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">State-owned Eskom and local government distributors are complemented by private independent power projects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Building competition into power generation</h2>
<p>Globally many years of experience show that effective competition is possible in power generation (and energy sales), while electricity transmission and distribution mostly remain natural monopolies.</p>
<p>Independent power projects in South Africa already compete for the right to build, own and operate power stations based on long-term contracts and competitive prices. It makes sense to extend this kind of competition.</p>
<p>It is possible for power stations also to compete in a power exchange. This typically happens in a day-ahead market where independent power projects (and perhaps also Eskom) compete to sell their power for each period in the day. Such wholesale power markets have potential price benefits. But they are not always effective in attracting new investment. A much more effective way of attracting investment is through competitive tenders for long-term contracts.</p>
<p>Competition can also be encouraged by giving customers the right to choose their supplier. But international experience <a href="http://emrf.net/uploads/3/4/4/6/34469793/retail_choice_in_electricity_for_emrf_final.pdf">shows</a> that while the benefits are potentially significant for large customers, they’re relatively modest for small users.</p>
<p>A modest amendment to the Electricity Regulation Act could make explicit the possibility of direct agreements between independent power projects and qualifying customers. This would spur innovation and investment, and reduce costs.</p>
<p>Traditionally, power systems have been vertically integrated: power generation, transmission and distribution functions have been combined in one company. But with generation potentially open to competition, many countries have decided to separate generation from the natural monopoly wire components.</p>
<p>The challenge of the current system is that it can discourage investment in independent power projects. It can also make inter-connection with the grid difficult or expensive and can constrain dispatch. This is because Eskom controls power purchases from independent power projects, as well as access to transmission, but also builds and operates its own power stations. </p>
<p>An alternative would be to spin off state-owned generation into a separate Genco. This would leave Eskom to control only transmission (and the system operator and buying functions). Eskom could then – on a neutral, transparent and fair basis – contract either State Gencos or independent power projects, creating a platform for private investment.</p>
<h2>Overcoming state paralysis</h2>
<p>Despite ample evidence of best practice South Africa seems to be in a state of paralysis.</p>
<p>The difficulty in restructuring state-owned utilities when they are in crisis is that governments are careful not to propose interventions that might further destabilise them. But when the crisis recedes so does the political imperative for restructuring. When Eskom was load shedding the focus was on immediate measures to keep the lights on and on improving its financial viability. It was more difficult to agree on far-reaching reforms that might prevent similar crises in the future.</p>
<p>It requires vision, leadership and commitment to restructure state owned enterprises. Any such process must remove impediments to investment and achieve efficiency improvements that facilitate economic growth and development.</p>
<p>There is an alternative to Eskom’s leadership defending an old, vertically-integrated, monopolistic electricity industry model – which international experience shows is moribund. Would the company not want its legacy to be distinguished by a reforming zeal that sets South Africa on a different path? This would embrace a model for attracting new investment and securing power supply while containing costs and prices, and promoting environmental sustainability.</p>
<p>Perhaps South Africa’s fiscal position will have to deteriorate further before the country accepts that it can no longer fully fund its public utilities and that a greater openness to private investment is inevitable. It has already <a href="http://citizen.co.za/396604/r60b-of-eskom-loan-to-be-converted-to-equity/">pumped R83bn into Eskom since 2008</a>. </p>
<p>It would be better to start that restructuring and reform process now before there is another crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anton Eberhard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It would be better to proactively restructure South Africa’s electricity sector to spur innovation and investment and reduce costs before another crisis hits and further derails the economy.Anton Eberhard, Professor at the Graduate School of Business, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/540902016-05-04T10:11:14Z2016-05-04T10:11:14ZGetting more energy from the sun: how to make better solar cells<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120909/original/image-20160502-19557-1axrkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels on a Walmart roof, Mountain View, California.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/walmartcorporate/5250475208/in/album-72157625572617838/">Walmart/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global demand for energy is increasing by the hour as developing countries move toward industrialization. Experts estimate that by the year 2050, worldwide demand for electricity may reach <a href="https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/World-Energy-Scenarios_Composing-energy-futures-to-2050_Full-report.pdf">30 terawatts</a> (TW). For perspective, one terawatt is roughly equal to the power of 1.3 billion horses. </p>
<p>Energy from the sun is limitless – the sun provides us 120,000 TW of power at any given instant – and it is free. But today solar energy provides <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601053/solar-is-a-booming-business-but-its-still-not-generating-much-of-our-power/">only about one percent</a> of the world’s electricity. The critical challenge is making it less expensive to convert photo-energy into usable electrical energy. </p>
<p>To do that, we need to find materials that absorb sunlight and convert it into electricity efficiently. In addition, we want these materials to be abundant, environmentally benign and cost-effective to fabricate into solar devices.</p>
<p>Researchers from around the world are working to develop solar cell technologies that are efficient and affordable. The goal is to bring the installation cost of solar electricity below US$1 per watt, compared to <a href="http://solar-power-now.com/cost-of-solar/">about $3 per watt today</a>.</p>
<p>At Binghamton University’s <a href="http://www.binghamton.edu/casp/">Center for Autonomous Solar Power (CASP)</a>, we are investigating ways to make thin film solar cells using materials that are abundant in nature and nontoxic. We want to develop solar cells that are reliable, highly efficient at converting sunlight to electricity and inexpensive to manufacture. We have identified two materials that have great potential as solar absorbers: pyrite, better known as fool’s gold because of its metallic luster; and copper-zinc-tin-sulfide (CZTS).</p>
<h2>Seeking the ideal material</h2>
<p>Today’s commercial solar cells are made from one of three materials: silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS). Each has strengths and weaknesses. </p>
<p>Silicon solar cells are highly efficient, converting up to 25 percent of the sunlight that falls on them into electricity, and very durable. However, it is very expensive to process silicon into wafers. And these wafers have to be very thick (about 0.3 millimeters, which is thick for solar cells) to absorb all of the sunlight that falls on them, which further increases costs. </p>
<p>Silicon solar cells – often referred to as first-generation solar cells – are used in the panels that have become familiar sights on rooftops. Our center is studying another type called thin film solar cells, which are the next generation of solar technology. As their name suggests, thin film solar cells are made by putting a thin layer of solar absorbent material over a substrate, such as glass or plastic, which typically can be flexible. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121033/original/image-20160503-19845-1nxd8no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A CASP center fabricated CZTS solar cell on a flexible glass substrate made by Corning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tara Dhakal/Binghamton University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These solar cells use less material, so they are less expensive than crystalline solar cells made from silicon. It is not possible to coat crystalline silicon on a flexible substrate, so we need a different material to use as a solar absorber.</p>
<p>Although thin film solar technology is improving rapidly, some of the materials in today’s thin film solar cells are scarce or hazardous. For example, the cadmium in CdTe is highly toxic to all living things and is known to cause cancer in humans. CdTe can separate into cadmium and tellurium at high temperatures (for example, in a laboratory or housefire), posing a serious inhalation risk.</p>
<p>We are working with pyrite and CZTS because they are nontoxic and very inexpensive. CZTS costs about 0.005 cents per watt, and pyrite costs <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es8019534">a mere 0.000002 cents per watt</a>. They also are among the most abundant materials in the Earth’s crust, and absorb the visible spectrum of sunlight efficiently. These films can be as thin as 1/1000th of a millimeter.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120918/original/image-20160503-19512-o7idfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Testing CZTS solar cells under simulated sunlight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tara Dhakal/Binghamton University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We need to crystallize these materials before we can fabricate them into solar cells. This is done by heating them. CZTS crystallizes at temperatures under 600 degree Celsius, compared to 1,200 degrees Celsius or higher for silicon, which makes it less expensive to process. It performs much like high-efficiency copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) solar cells, which are commercially available now, but replaces the indium and gallium in these cells with cheaper and more abundant zinc and tin. </p>
<p>So far, however, CZTS solar cells are relatively inefficient: they convert less than <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aenm.201301465/abstract">13 percent</a> of the sunlight that falls upon them to electricity, compared to 20 percent for more expensive CIGS solar cells. </p>
<p>We know that CZTS solar cells have a potential to be 30 percent efficient. The main challenges are 1) synthesizing high-quality CZTS thin film without any traces of impurities, and 2) finding a suitable material for the “buffer” layer underneath it, which helps to collect the electric charges that sunlight creates in the absorber layer. Our lab has produced a CZTS thin film with <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X13005161">seven percent efficiency</a>; we hope to approach 15 percent efficiency soon by synthesizing high-quality CZTS layers and finding suitable buffer layers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120573/original/image-20160428-28026-2rcrmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Structure of a CZTS solar cell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tara Dhakal/Binghamton University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pyrite is another potential absorber that can be synthesized at very low temperatures. Our lab has synthesized pyrite thin films, and now we are working to layer those films into solar cells. This process is challenging because pyrite breaks down easily when it is exposed to heat and moisture. We are researching ways to make it more stable without affecting its solar absorbency and mechanical properties. If we can solve this problem, “fool’s gold” could turn into a smart photovoltaic device.</p>
<p>In a recent study, researchers at Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley estimated that solar power could provide <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/C5EE01283J">up to 45 percent</a> of U.S. electricity by 2050. To meet that target, we need to keep driving down the cost of solar power and find ways to make solar cells more sustainably. We believe that abundant, nontoxic materials are key to realizing the potential of solar power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Binghamton University's Center for Autonomous Solar Power has received funding from the Office of Naval Research for earth abundant thin film solar cell research.</span></em></p>Solar power has enormous potential, but provides only about one percent of world electricity today. An engineer explains the many steps it takes to make solar panels that are efficient, clean and cheap.Tara P. Dhakal, Assistant Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/565212016-04-18T04:33:17Z2016-04-18T04:33:17ZWhat lies behind Africa’s lack of access and unreliable power supplies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118723/original/image-20160414-2644-4kqv5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Nigeria 96% of households are connected to the grid, but only 18% of these connections function more than about half the time.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Akintunde Akinleye/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Afrobarometer, a pan-African, non-partisan research network, recently released a <a href="http://afrobarometer.msgfocus.com/files/amf_afrobarometer/project_164/Electrification/Electricity-in_Africa-dispatch_AD75-Afrobarometer-ENG.pdf">report</a> highlighting Africa’s electricity challenges. Power shortages can hamper socioeconomic development, but they also have implications for health and education. The Conversation Africa’s energy and environment editor Ozayr Patel spoke to Peter Penar, one of the researchers.</em></p>
<p><strong>How serious is the electricity crisis in Africa?</strong></p>
<p>One of the most glaring disparities is that across the 36 countries surveyed, 94% of urban dwellers have access to the electric grid, whereas only 45% do in rural areas. The urban-rural divide is most pronounced in Guinea, Mali and Niger. This suggests that major cities, including capitals, have fairly good grid coverage, but the outlying rural areas remain severely wanting.</p>
<p>The problem of accessing electricity varies greatly across countries. Many North African and island countries achieve high rates of access. But several countries have extended the electric grid to only a third or less of the country. Examples include Burundi (17%), Burkina Faso (25%), Sierra Leone (29%), Niger (30%), Guinea (31%), Liberia (31%) and Mali (32%).</p>
<p>West and East African countries lag behind other regions in extending the grid. Southern Africa is a mixed picture, with many countries falling below the 36-country average (66%). These include Zimbabwe (62%), Namibia (62%), Zambia (50%), Mozambique (50%) and Malawi (42%).</p>
<p>The next step is whether the electricity grid actually connects to citizens. In some instances, the electricity grid is in the area but connections to dwellings are not present. </p>
<p>But even being connected to the grid doesn’t ensure electricity supply. This is because power is intermittent. In South Africa 14% of those with an electric connection suggest that power never or only occasionally works, with even higher proportions in Zimbabwe (44%), Zambia (33%), Botswana (23%), Namibia (19%) and Kenya (15%). </p>
<p><strong>Why is providing electricity so important?</strong> </p>
<p>Electricity is central to the broader development agenda. Without electricity it is unlikely that development projects and public investments, such as schools and community centres, can achieve their intended goals. The expansion of technology initiatives in rural areas, such as supplying laptops to students, will not be sustainable without reliable connections to electricity. Electricity is also essential for basic things like charging one’s mobile phone or powering a household water pump and heater.</p>
<p>It has broader implications too. A lack of electricity prevents efforts to improve election quality, as the equipment for biometric registration and identification requires a reliable connection. For example, biometric voters lists couldn’t be managed in some areas in Kenya’s 2013 elections because computers ran out of battery power by midday. The were unable to be charged at polling stations. </p>
<p>Any similar effort to employ technology in state administration in areas without the power grid, a connection or supply will be futile under the current constraints in many African countries. A larger concern is that many countries, even more developed countries such as South Africa, have failed to engage in long-term energy resource planning.</p>
<p><strong>Would it be better to extend the electricity grid in rural areas or to pursue renewable energy initiatives?</strong></p>
<p>Renewable energy initiatives should definitely be part of national energy plans. Renewable energy production is generally good for the environment and may not require large-scale infrastructural projects and investments. But some initiatives need to be complemented by traditional approaches. For renewable energy projects to work systematically, they must provide rural dwellers and the poor the same coverage and quality as on-the-grid electricity flows.</p>
<p>Another consideration is who is supporting and initiating these renewable energy solutions. African citizens and states must be equal partners and innovators in the energy sector, particularly as cooperation with other countries, such as the US (through <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica">Power Africa</a>), increases. </p>
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<span class="caption">North African countries, like Egypt, and island ones are more successful in providing people with electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amr Dalsh/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>How have North African countries and Mauritius done so well? Are there lessons for other countries?</strong></p>
<p>These countries benefit from their geography and population distribution, and higher levels of economic development.</p>
<p>The fact that Mauritius and Cape Verde are doing well is most likely due to the fact that they are fairly small and easy to connect to a grid system.</p>
<p>In North Africa one factor is that, on average, the population is more urbanised and geographically centralised than in most sub-Saharan African countries. This means that there’s no need for extensive rural electrification efforts and the focus can be on urban areas. In addition, higher levels of economic development may contribute to electrification.</p>
<p>Unfortunately this suggests that the solutions to rural electrification will be hard to extend to sub-Saharan African countries.</p>
<p><strong>Electricity isn’t high on many African countries’ priority lists. Why is this? What can be done about it?</strong> </p>
<p>Employment, effective health care, water supply, and agriculture and farming were all rated as more pressing problems than electricity. These are all highly tangible and involve basic issues of livelihoods.</p>
<p>The fact is that electricity is important to all of them. For example, investments in energy have the potential to create jobs to build and maintain the energy infrastructure. In addition, advancements in health care and water management will involve technology applications, with electricity being a prerequisite.</p>
<p>This is why it’s important that civil society and grassroots associations explain to their governments that electricity should be a pillar of national development plans and that improvements in electricity supply support investments in other development areas.</p>
<p><strong>Some countries are connected to the grid but still have electricity issues. In Nigeria, for example, 96% of households are connected but only 18% of these connections function more than about half the time. What can be done to improve this?</strong></p>
<p>The gaps between grid extension and electricity supply are sizable for many countries, such as Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon. Although it is hard to generalise, part of the problem is government mismanagement of electricity resources and the failure to develop a feasible national energy plan. This involves seeking out a diversified supply of energy to meet increasing demand. In the case of Ghana, citizens clearly blame government mismanagement for failing to supply electricity. This is clear from the fact that the proportion of Ghanaians saying they approve of the government’s performance declined from 48% in 2012 to 23% in 2014.</p>
<p>The neglect from government is also rooted in inequalities in the countries. For example, in Nigeria the energy supply burden is shifted from the government to individuals. To maintain electricity, those who can afford it invest in generators run on gas or diesel. Only citizens who can afford to purchase fuel for the generator and can find time to wait in long lines at gas stations – or hire someone to wait for them – are able to maintain electricity in the house.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56521/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Penar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africa still has numerous electricity challenges to overcome, but several countries are getting it right when it comes to providing electricity to their people.Peter Penar, Researcher and PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.