tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/elephant-poaching-29962/articleselephant poaching – The Conversation2023-01-11T11:41:24Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973492023-01-11T11:41:24Z2023-01-11T11:41:24ZElephant poaching rates vary across Africa: 19 years of data from 64 sites suggest why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503583/original/file-20230109-13-53i5vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s a grim and all too common sight for rangers at some of Africa’s nature reserves: the bullet-riddled carcass of an elephant, its tusks removed by poachers. African elephant populations have <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/2354/#table-2">fallen by about 30% since 2006</a>. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1403984111">Poaching</a> has driven the decline.</p>
<p>Some reserves, like Garamba in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Selous in Tanzania, have lost hundreds of elephants to poachers over the last decade. But others, like Etosha National Park in Namibia, have been targeted far less. What might explain this difference?</p>
<p>That’s what we set out to explore in our <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2022.2270">new paper</a>. We investigated why poaching rates vary so widely across Africa and what this might reveal about what drives, motivates and facilitates poaching. To do this, we used a statistical model to relate poaching levels from 64 African sites to various socio-economic factors. These included a country’s quality of governance and the level of human development in the area surrounding a park.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that poaching rates are lower where there is strong national governance and where local levels of human development – especially wealth and health – are relatively high. Strong site-level law enforcement and reduced global ivory prices also keep poaching levels down.</p>
<p>Understanding these dynamics is crucial. The illegal wildlife trade is <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-101718-033253">one of the highest value illicit trade sectors globally</a>, worth several billion dollars each year. It poses a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystems, which are <a href="https://www.unep.org/un-biodiversity-conference-cop-15">the bedrock of human well-being</a>. And elephants are more than just a culturally significant icon. They are “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0395-6">ecosystem engineers</a>” that can boost forest carbon stocks and <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecy.1557">diversify habitats</a> through their feeding. Their presence in national parks and reserves also has economic benefits, bringing in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13379">valuable tourism revenues</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/115/458/1/2195193">deaths of both poachers and rangers</a> in the continent’s violent biodiversity “war” also underscores our findings: when elephants lose, we all lose.</p>
<h2>Data collection</h2>
<p>We developed a statistical model using 19 years of data on 10,286 poached elephants at 64 sites in 30 African countries. These data were collected, mostly by wildlife rangers, as part of the global programme for <a href="https://citesmike.org/">Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE)</a>, administered by the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=819&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=819&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503770/original/file-20230110-5012-50s7kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=819&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rangers are the real champions of this research, working under difficult conditions to protect elephants and other biodiversity. Photo: Tim Kuiper.</span>
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<p>We then linked the poaching data to key socio-economic data related to areas around the parks, individual countries and global markets.</p>
<p>Poaching of high-value species like elephants and rhinos is driven primarily by <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/59/1/24/4967883">sophisticated criminal syndicates</a>. So we used criminology theory and evidence from the scientific literature to generate hypotheses about factors that might drive, facilitate or motivate the decisions of these syndicates and the local hunters they recruited. We then identified datasets representing these factors, such as the <a href="https://ucdp.uu.se/">Uppsala Armed Conflict Dataset</a> and the Global Data Lab’s <a href="https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/">Subnational Human Development index</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/statistical-models-and-ranger-insights-help-identify-patterns-in-elephant-poaching-137834">Statistical models and ranger insights help identify patterns in elephant poaching</a>
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<p>Our tailored statistical model allows us to test for the effect of one hypothesised driver of poaching while accounting for the others. It also means we can look at local, national, regional and global factors together.</p>
<h2>Key findings</h2>
<p>Parks with higher levels of human development (based on health and wealth metrics from household surveys) and stronger law enforcement suffered less poaching. Poaching was also lower in countries where there was strong national governance quality. We measured this using the <a href="https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/">World Bank’s governance indicators</a>. </p>
<p>Socio-economic and political drivers were far more common than ecological ones. A park’s accessibility and size, the density of its vegetation and its elephant population did not affect its poaching levels. </p>
<p>The strong associations we found between poaching and factors like corruption and human development do not necessarily imply that these factors directly cause poaching. Correlation does not imply causation. Deeper research at particular sites will reveal what underlying processes are at play, and offer a better understanding of cause and effect. </p>
<p>But we do have some suggestions about what might lie behind the associations we found. These are rooted in <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12622">previous studies</a>.</p>
<h2>Solutions transcend biodiversity</h2>
<p>Why, for instance, would higher levels of local human well-being in an area be associated with lower poaching?</p>
<p>One explanation could be that, in areas of economic deprivation and in the absence of alternatives, local residents might participate in poaching to meet their basic needs or earn extra income.</p>
<p>Another interpretation might be that criminal ivory syndicates seeking to recruit local hunters target areas of lower human well-being because they can operate more effectively there.</p>
<p>A number of biodiversity conservation actors, like government wildlife departments or environmental NGOs, have already recognised the value in focusing on improving human well-being around parks and reserves. A stellar example is <a href="https://communityconservationnamibia.com/">Namibia’s conservancy model</a>. It achieves effective conservation through local communities governing and benefiting from wildlife. </p>
<p>Our study highlights that site-based conservation action alone cannot control illegal killing. A lot of what drives and facilitates elephant poaching is beyond conservationists’ remit or control.</p>
<p>Conservationists can’t be expected to solve local human development issues or hold governments accountable on their own. Wider societal action to address poverty is required. This could include empowering women, increasing access to basic education, and promoting resilience to climate change. Such action is valuable in its own right, but will likely deliver benefits for elephants too. </p>
<p>Finally, the positive relationship that we found between poaching and ivory prices suggests that tackling demand for illegal wildlife in end-markets is a key part of the puzzle.</p>
<p>We suggest that tackling elephant poaching, and indeed the broader illegal wildlife trade, requires dealing with the wider systemic challenges of human development, corruption and consumer demand. It is not enough to just focus on actions traditionally defined as “wildlife conservation”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197349/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Kuiper receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation and the University of Cape Town Research Council. This work arises from a consultancy from the UN CITES Monitoring Illegal Killing of Elephants programme, to E.J. Milner-Gulland and Tim Kuiper (CITES project S-598), which was funded by the European Union. The consultancy brief was to identify and analyse covariates of illegal killing across MIKE sites, and a peer-reviewed paper was one of the planned outputs</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>This work arises from a consultancy from the UN CITES Monitoring Illegal Killing of Elephants programme, to E.J. Milner-Gulland and Tim Kuiper (CITES project S-598), which was funded by the European Union. The consultancy brief was to identify and analyse covariates of illegal killing across MIKE sites, and a peer-reviewed paper was one of the planned outputs. Potentially relevant group memberships: I am currently a Trustee of WWF-UK and a member of the IUCN-SSC Sustainable Use and Livelihoods specialist group.</span></em></p>The findings suggest that poaching rates are lower where there is strong national governance and levels of local human development are higher.Timothy Kuiper, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Cape TownEleanor Jane Milner-Gulland, Tasso Leventis Professor of Biodiversity, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1420042020-07-03T15:27:00Z2020-07-03T15:27:00ZHundreds of elephants are mysteriously dying in Botswana – a conservationist explains what we know<p>Worrying news has recently come to light: hundreds of elephants have been found dead in Botswana, and as yet, there is no clear cause of death. But as an <a href="https://vickyboult.com/research/">expert in elephants and their conservation</a>, I believe we can at least rule out a few possible answers.</p>
<p>Here’s what we do know: the first deaths were reported in March, but significant numbers were only recorded from May onwards. To date, it’s thought that the death toll stands at nearly <a href="https://africageographic.com/stories/botswana-elephant-graveyard-mystery-death-toll-rises-to-400/">400 elephants of both sexes and all ages</a>. Most of the deaths have occurred near the village of Seronga on the northern fringes of the Okavango Delta, a vast swampy inland region that hosts huge wildlife populations. Many of the carcasses have been found near to water.</p>
<p>Of those discovered so far, some lay on their knees and faces (rather than on their side), suggesting sudden death, although there are also reports of elephants looking disoriented and even <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-03/botswana-elephants-mysteriously-die/12419064">walking in circles</a>. The tusks of the dead elephants are still in place and, as yet, no other species have died under similar circumstances.</p>
<h2>Botswana’s elephant politics</h2>
<p>Botswana has long been a stronghold for Africa’s remaining 400,000 elephants, boasting a third of the continent’s population. While elephant numbers have widely declined in recent decades, largely due to poaching, Botswana’s population has grown. </p>
<p>However, this growth has been outpaced by the ever-increasing human population. With more elephants and more people, competition for space has escalated and increasingly, elephants and people find themselves at odds. Some communities see elephants as pests, as they feed on and trample crops, cause damage to infrastructure and threaten the lives of people and livestock. In return, people retaliate by killing and injuring offending elephants.</p>
<p>With large rural communities struggling to coexist with elephants, the issue has become highly politicised. In 2019, in a controversial move, president Mokgweetsi Masisi <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48374880">lifted a ban</a> on the hunting of elephants in Botswana, reasoning that hunting could both reduce their numbers and generate income for struggling rural communities. This, against a backdrop of <a href="https://theconversation.com/botswana-has-an-elephant-poaching-problem-not-an-overpopulation-problem-119366">rising poaching</a>, suggests that times are changing for Botswana’s elephants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345544/original/file-20200703-33939-194p5th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The elephants lived on the fringes of the Okavango Delta, a unique ‘desert wetland’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">evenfh / shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Speculation</h2>
<p>This has sparked speculation about the recent deaths. However, given what we know, we can address some of the rumours.</p>
<p>Firstly, it seems unlikely that poachers are to blame, since the tusks of the dead elephants have not been removed. It’s estimated that illegal black-market ivory trade is responsible for the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-66906-w">deaths of 20,000 elephants annually</a>. </p>
<p>The elephants could have been killed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-elephants-in-africa-heres-how-peaceful-coexistence-with-human-communities-can-help-112645">frustrated local people</a>, typically by shooting or spearing. In this case however, the sheer number of dead elephants and the lack of reports of gunshot or spearing wounds, does not support this hypothesis.</p>
<p>Poisoning could be used instead, either by poachers or in retaliation by locals. A few years ago hundreds of elephants in Zimbabwe died after drinking from <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/11/151124-zimbabwe-elephants-cyanide-poaching-hwange-national-park-africa/">watering holes laced with cyanide</a>, and the proximity of many of the recent deaths to water has given the idea some foundation. </p>
<p>However, in the event of poisoning, we would expect to see other species dying as well, either because they drank from the same poisoned water source or because they fed on the poisoned carcass of the elephant, and this has not been reported.</p>
<h2>A natural cause of death?</h2>
<p>If the evidence currently available doesn’t support foul play, that leads us to consider natural causes.</p>
<p>Drought can cause significant deaths. In 2009, a drought killed around 400 elephants in Amboseli, Kenya, a quarter of the local population. But drought tends to kill the very young and old, while the deaths recently reported in Botswana show elephants of all ages are affected. Moreover, rainfall in recent months has been near normal, ruling out the influence of drought.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345531/original/file-20200703-33913-17gkakb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Mount Kilimanjaro looms over Amboseli National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Graeme Shannon / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Perhaps because wildlife disease has gained much attention in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the remaining possibility that has been widely suggested is disease. While COVID-19 itself is unlikely, elephants, like humans, are affected by a range of diseases. </p>
<p>For instance, over 100 were suspected to have died from an <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-botswana-elephants/more-than-100-elephants-die-in-botswana-in-suspected-anthrax-outbreak-idUKKBN1X12EE">anthrax outbreak</a> in Botswana in 2019. Those elephants that seemed disoriented and to be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-03/botswana-elephants-mysteriously-die/12419064">walking in circles</a> might suggest a disease causing a neurological condition.</p>
<p>Still, the information currently available is inconclusive. The Botswana government has <a href="https://twitter.com/BWGovernment/status/1278655613468323842">released a statement</a> explaining that investigations are ongoing and that laboratories had been identified to process samples taken from the carcasses of dead elephants. </p>
<p>To avoid further speculation and prevent the deaths of more elephants in their last remaining stronghold, it’s vital that investigations are expedited so that the cause of death can be determined and suitable action taken.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vicky Boult does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The death toll stands at nearly 400 elephants of both sexes and all ages.Vicky Boult, Postdoctoral Researcher in Conservation Biology, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1222562019-08-28T04:23:27Z2019-08-28T04:23:27ZWhy we need to protect the extinct woolly mammoth<p>An audacious world-first <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/18/prop/060319/E-CoP18-Prop-13.pdf">proposal</a> to protect an extinct species was debated on the global stage last week.</p>
<p>The plan to regulate the trade of woolly mammoth ivory was proposed, but ultimately withdrawn from an international conference on the trade of endangered species. </p>
<p>Instead, delegates agreed to consider the question again in three years, after a study of the effect of the mammoth ivory trade on global ivory markets. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-resurrecting-mammoths-help-stop-arctic-emissions-95956">Could resurrecting mammoths help stop Arctic emissions?</a>
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<h2>Why protect an extinct species?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cites.org/eng/disc/text.php">Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora</a> (CITES) is an international agreement regulating trade in endangered wildlife, signed by 183 countries. Every three years the signatories meet to discuss levels of protection for trade in various animals and their body parts. </p>
<p>The most audacious proposal at this year’s conference, which concluded yesterday in Geneva, was <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/18/prop/060319/E-CoP18-Prop-13.pdf">Israel’s suggestion</a> to list the Woolly mammoth (<em>Mammuthus primigenius</em>) as a protected species. </p>
<p>Specifically, it aimed to list the woolly mammoth in accordance with the Convention’s “lookalike” provision. Once woolly mammoth ivory is carved into small pieces, it is indistinguishable from elephant ivory without a microscope. The proposal is designed to protect living elephants, by preventing “laundering” or mislabelling of illegal elephant ivory.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289751/original/file-20190828-184202-1qs9up1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Once carved into small pieces, elephant and mammoth ivory are indistinguishable without a microscope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/quinet/33182253770/in/photolist-SycHZC-23ZmzKM-at8W1Z-nf7bnH-Svv361-4LKPL2-8PBdYf-4LQ26S-8g7JpA-8g4shK-g1hJPE-TaFqQs-g1i3em-8PASkW-g1hVAv-g1i7G6-6a3XNE-5rBDY9-g1hGw3-g1i1gU-ikcGja-bBHPP5-nd4uCb-g1idsz-g1i7RY-g1hFRq-4LKPER-6nwj3R-Qytopg-jDWAen-pBkKzh-myDcAd-ikcL9W-gVRxRK-aTYqaV-oVCfZQ-Ns7cCk-fTdMir-7Kqj9n-8PASDG-bwrDUe-g1hQpN-be84C-g1hKCz-2fmdmS3-6a3XvU-dVkLp9-o6CSU2-dQmWJr-HBKAhG">Thomas Quine/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Had it passed, it would have been the first time an extinct species has been listed to save its modern-day cousins. Most populations of woolly mammoths went extinct after the last ice age, 10,000-40,000 years ago. </p>
<h2>Wait, you can trade mammoth ivory?</h2>
<p>The trade in woolly mammoth tusks lies at the convergence of Earth’s environmental crises. </p>
<p>As the climate crisis melts permafrost in the Siberian tundra, preserved mammoths bearing tusks as large as 4.2m long (weighing as much as 84kg) have been unearthed for the <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/18/prop/060319/E-CoP18-Prop-13.pdf">first time in millennia</a>.</p>
<p>International trade in mammoth ivory is not illegal (except for import to India under domestic legislation), and the domestic trade of Woolly mammoth ivory is not banned by most countries. </p>
<p>While poorly documented, the main trade route for tusks is thought to be from Russia to Hong Kong and then mainland China for processing. </p>
<p><a href="http://savetheelephants.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014_ChinaConservationChallenge.pdf">Imports to Hong Kong</a> have increased dramatically from fewer than 9 tonnes per year from 2000 to 2003 to an average of 31 tonnes per year from 2007 to 2013. Similarly, <a href="http://www.pachydermjournal.org/index.php/pachy/article/view/420">one survey</a> found a fourfold increase in mammoth ivory sales in Macau between 2004 and 2015. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-break-the-deadlock-over-africas-ivory-trade-heres-how-122153">It's time to break the deadlock over Africa's ivory trade: here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>It’s not all mammoth</h2>
<p>While some of this mammoth trade is legitimate, plenty of traders are passing elephant ivory off as mammoth. Research has found that, while it’s <a href="https://cites-analysis.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/proposal/attachments_en/79/Prop13WoollyMammoth_rev.pdf">very hard to tell</a> how much of the legal mammoth trade is actually (illegal) elephant ivory, tighter regulation may reduce opportunities for the laundering of elephant ivory.</p>
<p>The proposal would not ban trade altogether, but would require an exporting country to prove that specimens are mammoth ivory to get a permit. </p>
<p>Ivory laundering goes the other way as well. Grade A mammoth ivory can be carved and passed off as elephant ivory trinkets and enter the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/woolly-mammoth-dna-ivory-illegal-discovery-cambodia-wildlife-conservation-a8711241.html">illegal wildlife trade</a>.</p>
<p>The illegal wildlife trade claims the lives of 20,000-50,000 elephants annually and is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/illegal-wildlife-trade-is-one-of-the-biggest-threats-to-endangered-species-and-the-uk-is-a-key-player-85477">second greatest direct threat</a> to species survival. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289750/original/file-20190828-184248-1ioo7cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Selling elephant ivory is largely illegal around the world, but the mammoth trade creates a huge loophole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bluelemur/87500673/in/photolist-8JsUi-5ttc3q-6tYLBq-bqDVh3-6KViFx-5wPsS-88LmKo-8V478E-9sgj7Q-9tzfSP-6P1wiU-CWJrz-m2oT8B-f5iygM-XFCBRe-5hU4G7-XLRq-8Ga4GV-8JsUh-w96cU-gHjsW-6dqEYz-3X6ZQK-54p9UF-9rhfjw-DseMB-2emoWBN-44maxP-4qzthq-65Tz8e-9brEur-4z9Whv-8geF4-x9n1NK-fU9zds-6YnUEN-nsiiKw-ntk4Z3-6vSAbQ-9tzezc-JEMPR-5UEMw-6AMMcj-69NLRF-9oZVNq-bkHLP-9tzeeV-DJQUTp-4L51X9-9tzenF">Paul Williams/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Is it woolly thinking?</h2>
<p>The new proposal was not without its detractors. Some “ice ivory” sellers and carvers argue mammoth ivory should be promoted as an alternative to elephant ivory to meet market demand without poaching. Others maintain extinct species should be regulated by the laws and codes observed by the global antiquities trade. </p>
<p>While Israel has not taken positions on these points, the move would be in line with other global efforts to stem the tide of organised crime syndicates profiting from the illegal wildlife trade. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://lighthouse.mq.edu.au/article/when-will-we-stop-the-ivory-trade-in-australia">own research</a>, along with government inquiries around the world, has found legal markets in ivory, regardless of origin, can and will be exploited as conduits for illegal trade. </p>
<p>Further, a <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9408/2/3/142/htm">recent analysis</a> of the global online antiquities market found dealers and buyers have resoundingly poor legal literacy. Ethical dealer behaviour is highly inconsistent.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-save-the-african-elephant-focus-must-turn-to-poverty-and-corruption-117790">To save the African elephant, focus must turn to poverty and corruption</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A solution put on ice</h2>
<p>If it had passed, this proposal would have been a landmark achievement in the protection of elephants. Instead, Israel’s delegates ultimately withdrew the motion, in the face of vehement opposition from Russia, which is the primary exporter of mammoth ivory.</p>
<p>Delegates from Canada, the United States of America and the European Union said there was insufficient evidence to support the change. The various parties agreed to support a study into the mammoth ivory trade as a compromise, and Israeli delegates are hopeful the findings will reopen discussion at the next conference, three years from now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zara Bending is affiliated with the Jane Goodall Institute Australia as a Board Director. However, her research into the illegal wildlife trade is conducted through the Centre for Environmental Law, Macquarie University. </span></em></p>Melting Siberian permafrost is exposing long-dead mammoths, creating a new trade in mammoth ivory.Zara Bending, Associate, Centre for Environmental Law, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1193662019-06-30T09:40:17Z2019-06-30T09:40:17ZBotswana has an elephant poaching problem, not an overpopulation problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281551/original/file-20190627-76705-1tx7g4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Elephants in the Kwedi Area of the Okavango Delta, Botswana.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Gernot Hensel</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Botswana government recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/elephants-reduced-to-a-political-football-as-botswana-brings-back-hunting-117615">reintroduced</a> trophy hunting after a five-year moratorium. It did so on the <a href="https://www.thepatriot.co.bw/analysis-opinions/item/6725-botswana%E2%80%99s-voice-on-elephants-enough.html">pretext</a> that Botswana has “too many elephants”.</p>
<p>But a new <a href="https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(19)30675-X.pdf">academic paper</a> shows that this argument doesn’t hold. </p>
<p>The researchers <a href="https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(19)30675-X.pdf">compared</a> the results of two aerial surveys in northern Botswana. The first was conducted in 2014, the second in 2018. Both were conducted during the dry season. This allowed for easy detection of changes over time. </p>
<p>A 94,000km2 area was studied and the elephant population estimated at 122,700 in 2018. This was roughly similar to the 2014 numbers. </p>
<p>But comparing results from the 2014 and 2018 aerial surveys, the scientists found that the numbers of elephant carcasses have increased, especially for newer carcasses dead for less than roughly 1 year. Populations can remain stable despite increased carcass counts because of new births and immigration from other range states. </p>
<p>Were these changes poaching-induced? The survey shows that they were. Carcasses suspected of poaching were physically checked. Evidence of skull hacking and attempts to cover tracks were clear. The elephants were killed in clusters, suggesting poaching <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/06/elephants-poached-in-botswana/">hot-spots</a>. </p>
<p>The paper has been published amid a fierce debate about the future of <a href="https://theconversation.com/elephants-reduced-to-a-political-football-as-botswana-brings-back-hunting-117615">Botswana’s preferred conservation model</a>. Restoring trophy hunting rights is likely to <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-05-29-the-elephants-in-the-room-the-myths-informing-botswanas-hunting-policy/">amplify</a> the poaching problem rather than solve it. </p>
<p>Trophy hunting and poaching both target large bulls with big tusks. Hunting may therefore create an additive effect to poaching, leading to exponential decline of the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.1769">rare genetics</a> carried by “big tuskers”.</p>
<h2>The findings</h2>
<p>Elephant population health and its future prospects are partially determined by carcass ratios. This is the number of carcasses divided by the sum of carcasses plus live elephants. If the carcass ratio is high, it might indicate a population in decline. “Fresh” carcasses indicate death within a year of the survey, whereas old carcasses indicate death more than a year prior. “Very old” carcasses belong to elephants who died more than ten years before the survey.</p>
<p>The estimated overall carcass count increased by 21% between 2014 and 2018. The combined fresh and recent number increased by 593% over the same time.</p>
<p>A number of factors could affect carcass ratios. These include drought, disease, poaching and excessive hunting. </p>
<p>One of the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.017">signs</a> that poaching is responsible for animal deaths is if they occur in clusters. The survey identified clustering effects in the 2018 survey that were not present in the 2014 survey. </p>
<p>The density of fresh and recent carcasses in observed hot-spots was 0.04/km2 but only 0.001/km2 in surrounding areas (buffer zones). Population decline in the hot-spots was roughly 16% while the increase in the surrounding areas was 10%.</p>
<h2>Cause of death</h2>
<p>To verify the cause of death for carcasses suspected of poaching, the researchers used a helicopter to visit carcasses on the ground or photograph them from low altitude. Poachers hack skulls for tusk removal and move branches over the carcass to try and cover their tracks. </p>
<p>Poaching was confirmed for 94 fresh or recent carcasses. For older carcasses, 62 of the 76 checked were verified as poached. That’s 156 illegally killed elephants directly observed within a few months, and a total carcass ratio of 8%, which may indicate a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5012305/">population at risk of decline</a>. As the scientists note:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In Zimbabwe’s Sebungwe ecosystem, numbers of carcasses increased in the early 2000s while elephant populations generally remained stable. This stable period was followed by a population collapse, with 2014 numbers down by 76% from the early 2000s.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In addition, their evidence showed that the vast majority of poached carcasses were older bulls. This is because they carry bigger tusks with more ivory. Poachers preferentially select these bulls, especially in previously unexploited populations. These are also the bulls that photographers pay to see.</p>
<p>What does this tell us about the future of elephants in Botswana?</p>
<h2>Unsustainable policy</h2>
<p>Botswana’s decision to reintroduce trophy hunting means that it’s now possible to <a href="https://www.huntinafrica.com/elephant-hunting">pay around $40,000</a> to kill a “tusker” with ivory weighing between 40 to 70 pounds. Botswana’s annual quota has been set at 400 bulls per annum, for bulls older than 35. Trophy bulls are normally selected from the oldest 10% of the male population.</p>
<p>This is unsustainable.</p>
<p>Only a small proportion of the 400 are likely to have large tusk genetics. Botswana’s independent bull elephant population is currently estimated at between 18,474 and 22,816. If 4,000 of these were trophy bulls (unlikely), removing 400 a year (plus poaching of at least 200), would mean that big tuskers would be shot out within seven years. </p>
<p>Older males are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/beheco/article/19/1/9/227240">critical</a> for maintaining cogent elephant sociology. They <a href="https://academic.oup.com/beheco/article/19/1/9/227240">suppress</a> the musth cycles of younger bulls and <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/if-elephants-arent-persons-yet-could-they-be-one-day">deter</a> delinquent behaviour. Consequently, hunting might lead to more human and elephant conflict. </p>
<p>Bulls also breed <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347207001431">most successfully</a> beyond the age of 40. Their absence will therefore negatively affect breeding cycles. Killing them off comes with extensive opportunity costs for Botswana. Photographic tourists – paying up to <a href="https://www.uyaphi.com/botswana/lodges/luxurious-lodges">$2,000</a> per person per night – may now choose other destinations to see big tuskers. </p>
<p>Botswana’s Minister of Tourism, Kitso Mokaila, has <a href="http://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=81470&dir=2019/june/21">stated</a> that “photographic tourism is a model that does not work for Batswana”. Mokaila also intimated that leases would not be renewed, cowing the industry into silence. </p>
<p>While the photographic safari industry could certainly benefit communities more, this does <a href="http://www.ecolarge.com/work/the-200-million-question-how-much-does-trophy-hunting-really-contribute-to-african-communities/">not</a> amount to an argument in favour of hunting. Self-drive tourism options, for instance, have not been tried in the Central Conservation Areas, which would bring counter-poaching presence and revenue to those communities. </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>With declining diamond rents and few economic alternatives to tourism, Botswana may need to rethink its position on hunting and must take action now to stop poaching in its tracks. This requires that local communities become <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/is-community-based-natural-resource-management-in-botswana-viable/">drivers</a> of conservation, true participants rather than ‘consulted’ stakeholders. And appropriate land-use planning must be followed, especially in conservation areas that are not conducive to photographic tourism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Harvey has previously worked for the South African Institute of International Affairs, which received research funding from Stop Ivory and the Humane Society International. He is currently an independent economist affiliated with The Conservation Action Trust.</span></em></p>In light of Botswana’s decision to allow trophy hunting again, new evidence suggests elephant poaching has been on the rise.Ross Harvey, Independent Economist; PhD Candidate, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1009012018-08-06T12:09:27Z2018-08-06T12:09:27ZA gigantic trek: what it takes to move 200 elephants 1500 km<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230552/original/file-20180803-41366-8x4waf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An elephant successfully translocated by SAN Parks from Kruger National Park to Addo Elephant National Park.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The translocation of wild animals is becoming an increasingly important conservation strategy and is happening more and more frequently <a href="http://www.iucnsscrsg.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=192&Itemid=587">around the world</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.australianwildlife.org/">Australian Wildlife Conservancy</a> has translocated 20 species (13 of them threatened) to its reserves around Australia. Similarly, the Conservation Land Trust in Argentina has translocated <a href="http://www.proyectoibera.org/en/english/index.htm">a suite of native mammals</a> including the giant anteater, tapir and jaguar to restore the Iberá Wetlands in Corrientes Province. The Red Squirrels Trust Wales is <a href="http://www.redsquirrels.info">restoring the Ogwen Valley</a> by eradicating invasive grey squirrels, and translocating native red squirrels and pine marten.</p>
<p>Translocations have become more frequent in Africa, too; elephants are the biggest animals to be moved. In places where species have historically been wiped out, but where managers have now removed the causes of those declines, translocation is an important tool.</p>
<p>One of the biggest elephant translocations ever undertaken is underway as part of an attempt to rebuild Mozambique’s elephant population. The global mining company, De Beers Group, in partnership with with <a href="http://www.peaceparks.org/news.php?pid=1696&mid=1782">Peace Parks Foundation</a>, has initiated a project to move 200 from their nature reserve in northern South Africa to <a href="http://www.debeersgroup.com/en/news/company-news/company-news/de-beers-group-to-move-200-elephants-from-south-africa-to-mozamb.html">Zinave National Park in Mozambique</a> – a distance of 1500 km. The process has already started. The animals will be moved in safe batches over the course of a 2-year project, the plan being to have all elephants moved by the end of next year’s translocation season.</p>
<h2>How it’s done</h2>
<p>The movement of elephants is a major mission. </p>
<p>First, helicopters are used to direct herds of elephants to a capture area so they can be darted from the air. The elephants’ legs are bound by strong, soft tethers capable of supporting several tonnes of animal. A crane attached to the loading trucks then lifts each animal and lowers them gently into crates. The elephants remain immobilised and ‘sleeping’ as it were, are then woken before they start their long journey to their new home.</p>
<p>For 200 elephants, this sounds like a monumental task. But South African conservation managers have vast experience with wildlife restoration projects on this scale. As long ago as 1979, 6000 animals (including elephants) were reintroduced into the newly established <a href="http://www.nature-reserve.co.za/operation-genesis.html">Pilanesberg National Park</a>. In 1991, Madikwe Game Reserve took the title of the world’s biggest translocation when 8000 individuals from 28 different species, including elephants, <a href="https://www.madikwegamereserve.co.za/about/operation-phoenix/">were translocated</a>.</p>
<p>Expertise is critical with translocations because they can go horribly wrong. For example, a Kenyan Wildlife Service translocation of 11 black rhinos this year led to 10 dying because the water at the translocation site was <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2018/07/10-of-11-black-rhinos-now-dead-after-relocation-attempt-in-kenya-takes-tragic-turn/">too salty</a>.</p>
<p>Lessons have also been learnt over the years. The elephants translocated to Pilanesberg were youngsters orphaned following culling in Kruger National Park. These youngsters grew up in the absence of adults and the unruly males ended up attacking and killing rhinos. Once adults were returned to Pilanesberg (and the offending elephants were removed), this aberrant behaviour ceased. Now entire herds are translocated, including adult bulls. </p>
<h2>Need for relocation</h2>
<p>Rampant poaching has afflicted Africa’s elephant populations over the past <a href="http://www.traffic.org/elephants-ivory">8 to 10 years</a>. Some poaching happens in South Africa, but elephant populations in the country are generally well managed and protected. Some populations have even increased beyond <a href="http://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/handle/10204/2983">carrying capacity</a>. For example, the reserve in Limpopo that’s home to the elephants being moved to Mozambique can carry 60 elephants but has a population of 270. </p>
<p>For decades elephant populations in South Africa’s Kruger National Park were held in check <a href="http://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/handle/10204/2983">by culling</a>. Rangers would shoot entire herds to keep numbers in check, and mobile abattoirs would fleece the carcass and give or sell the meat and products. But this was stopped <a href="http://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/handle/10204/2983">in the 1990s</a>.</p>
<p>Since then the elephant population in Kruger has more than doubled and there are concerns that they are damaging the park’s vegetation to such an extent that other wildlife species are <a href="http://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/handle/10204/2983">going extinct</a>.</p>
<p>Translocation has been increasingly used to manage this growth in numbers – not just in Kruger but in reserves across the country. Until recently, elephants were moved to establish new populations elsewhere in South Africa. But this option has started to run out because almost all reserves are now well stocked. As a result, South African conservation managers have begun to look elsewhere. </p>
<p>Mozambique’s elephant population was decimated during decades <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00306.x">of civil war</a>. With the return of peace, and better governance and security, wildlife populations can be restored in a number of different places. Because elephants are such slow breeders, populations in Mozambique have not returned to their previous levels. As a result, translocation and dropping the fences between Kruger in South Africa and Parque Nacional do Limpopo in Mozambique are being implemented. </p>
<h2>Translocation for the future</h2>
<p>With the swathes of free space in the world and the improved ability to manage threats to species, translocations should become more common as a way to reverse the wildlife declines humans have caused. </p>
<p>But government conservation agencies don’t take part in translocations as much as they should because they’re risky operations. It’s time governments reviewed their approach to active and innovative conservation interventions and show that they’re prepared to take risks to improve the bleak plight of the world’s biodiversity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100901/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Hayward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Translocations have become more frequent in Africa. Elephants are the biggest animals to be moved.Matt Hayward, Associate professor, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/929872018-03-11T19:04:33Z2018-03-11T19:04:33ZIvory up in flames, but who really noticed? How messages on elephant poaching might be missed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209258/original/file-20180307-146691-bwqfos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world's biggest burn of illegal ivory.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Stiles</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tusks of more than ten thousand elephants <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160430-kenya-record-breaking-ivory-burn/">went up in flames in Kenya</a> on April 30, 2016 – the world’s largest ever ivory burn. It was meant as a powerful display against poaching and the illegal ivory trade. </p>
<p>But did those flames reach their intended target?</p>
<p>Currently, governments, donors and NGOs aren’t monitoring the impact of these ivory burns. So we tracked the media coverage of the Kenyan burn, with the results <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13097">published this month in Conservation Biology</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/publish-and-dont-perish-how-to-keep-rare-species-data-away-from-poachers-80239">Publish and don’t perish – how to keep rare species' data away from poachers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who got the message?</h2>
<p>We had a simple question in mind with this research: did news of this burn make its way to ivory consumers and elephant poachers, and if so was the message one that denounced poaching?</p>
<p>The answer is a bit nuanced. Certainly the news of the ivory burn was strong (loud and clear) locally in Kenya and Tanzania and heavily amplified by news outlets across the western world (81% of online <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/world/africa/kenya-burns-poached-elephant-ivory-uhuru-kenyatta.html">articles on the burn</a> were produced in the United States).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209261/original/file-20180307-146700-1q88em6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Filming the destruction of the ivory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Stiles</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, we found low coverage of the burn in China, Vietnam and other countries where demand for illegal ivory is highest. </p>
<p>Of the 1,944 online articles that covered the burn in the countries sampled, only 61 were produced in mainland China. Additionally, more than half of the coverage in China was in English-language publications, which may not reach or resonate with all key ivory consumers.</p>
<p>The good news is, media stories around the ivory burn delivered an anti-poaching message. They stressed the importance of burns, ivory trade bans and law enforcement to catch poachers, smugglers and dealers, as key steps to saving elephants.</p>
<h2>To burn or not to burn?</h2>
<p>The authors on our research paper are a group of scientists and conservationists with diverse backgrounds, across Africa, North America, Australia, Europe and Asia. Our values are as diverse as our experiences.</p>
<p>Most of us feel a bit of sadness because watching elephant tusks engulfed in flames is a reminder of elephant slaughter. </p>
<p>For some of us though, the sadness is tempered by feelings of hope and justice – this is ivory that will never go into the hands of illegal dealers and ivory consumers and, as such, acts as a major deterrent. </p>
<p>But for others, the response was upsetting – animals had been murdered, and to add insult to injury, their remains wasted.</p>
<p>In the Kenyan burn, the ivory was estimated to be worth more than US$100 million (A$128 million) on the black market.</p>
<p>These stockpiles of ivory are an unfortunate reality. Ivory is harvested by elephant poachers. Between 2007 and 2014 an <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/2354/">estimated 144,000 elephants were killed</a>. If we are lucky, these poachers are caught and their ivory confiscated. Piles of seized ivory accumulate in massive stockpiles across Africa.</p>
<p>So this poses a difficult situation. What should we do with all that ivory?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209262/original/file-20180307-146675-1qlzxs3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The haul of illegal ivory, before the burn. Could it be put to better use?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Stiles</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’d all, obviously, rather see ivory where it belongs, on live elephants. In an ideal world ivory would only be collected, if at all, from elephants that died from natural causes and so trade in this product would not be a problem.</p>
<p>But the world isn’t ideal. Even though the price of ivory has declined, elephant tusks have been known to fetch up to <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/susan-lieberman-phd/as-the-price-of-ivory-fal_b_8885416.html">US$10,000</a> (A$12,800). With the financial incentive to poach so high, it sometimes seems like an insurmountable problem.</p>
<h2>Ivory for conservation</h2>
<p>Some of us believe that destroying ivory sends a strong message against poaching and illegal ivory trade – by saying that ivory is only valuable on a living elephant. </p>
<p>These members of our group think that we might as well burn these stockpiles, to demonstrate that trade should never be supported (as it cannot be adequately policed). They are heartened by the adoption of ivory trade bans by <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-42532017">China</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/02/480494835/new-u-s-ban-on-ivory-sales-to-protect-elephants">United States</a>. </p>
<p>But others in the group think destroying a quantity of ivory – worth far more on the black market than Kenya’s entire annual wildlife management budget – squanders an opportunity to sell the ivory. </p>
<p>The money could then be used to conserve elephants and other endangered wildlife (although pro-trade proponents acknowledge that there are implementation issues regarding corruption and policing efficacy). </p>
<p>To these members of our group, burning the ivory would be like burning cash in front of a person with no food or shelter.</p>
<p>Deep down inside, we all have one common goal, to save elephants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209266/original/file-20180307-146675-1k4d9p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Illegal ivory could be used to aid elephant conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rohit_saxena/5496346430/">Flickr/The Rohit</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rather than arguing based on our emotions, that’s why we carried out the latest research – a first step towards helping us decide whether ivory burns will reduce poaching.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-britain-make-an-ivory-ban-work-only-if-it-learns-from-americas-experience-85412">Can Britain make an ivory ban work? Only if it learns from America's experience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With the most <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/ivory-trinkets-crushed-en-masse-in-bourke-street-mall-20180303-p4z2oz.html">recent ivory destruction event</a>, in Melbourne, Australia, now is the time to think deeply about the efficacy of these ivory destruction events. </p>
<p>We need messages to be targeted towards the most important audiences, and we need to monitor consumer behaviour – not just the media coverage – in response to these events. </p>
<p>The scientific evidence for which action best saves elephants – burning or using regulated ivory sales to fund conservation – is still inconclusive. But as long as we move forward with ivory destruction, let’s make sure we monitor its impact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew H. Holden has received fellowships from the National Science Foundation, USA, and the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher O'Bryan receives funding from the Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre in Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duan Biggs receives funding from Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Possingham receives funding from The Australian Research Council. He is the Chief Scientist of The Nature Conservancy, a global environmental not-for-profit.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Alongside his position at the University of Queensland, he is the Director of Science and Research Initiative at the Wildlife Conservation Society</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Richard Braczkowski and James Allan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The destruction of a massive haul of illegal ivory was supposed to send a message to poachers and those who trade in the tusks. Did they notice, or can the ivory be used to help elephant conservation?Matthew H. Holden, Lecturer, Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, The University of QueenslandAlexander Richard Braczkowski, PhD Candidate - Wildlife Cameraman, The University of QueenslandChristopher J. O'Bryan, PhD Candidate, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandDuan Biggs, Senior Research Fellow Social-Ecological Systems & Resilience, Griffith UniversityHugh Possingham, Professor, The University of QueenslandJames Allan, PhD candidate, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandJames Watson, Professor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/913542018-02-08T12:49:03Z2018-02-08T12:49:03ZRhino poaching in South Africa has dipped but corruption hinders progress<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205466/original/file-20180208-180844-1byf3b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">White rhino's in the Kruger National Park.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The number of rhinos poached in South Africa in 2017 was lower than 2016’s, <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/mediarelease/molewa_highlightsprogressonimplementationofintegratedstrategicmanagementofrhinoceros">according to</a> South African Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs Edna Molewa. Last year, 1028 rhinos were killed compared to 1054 in 2016, a decrease of 26 animals (2.5%). </p>
<p>Any fall in the numbers is welcomed, but it’s the fifth year running that over 1000 rhinos were killed.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.traffic.org/">TRAFFIC</a>, the international wildlife trade monitoring group, states that 5476 rhinos were killed in South Africa over a five year period. This is from an estimated rhino populations at the end of 2010 of 18 796 white and 1916 black rhino in the country. South Africa <a href="http://www.savetherhino.org/rhino_info/thorny_issues/poaching_crisis_in_south_africa">has</a> about 93% of the world’s white rhino population and 40% of its black rhinos.</p>
<p>Though recorded deaths have dropped for three years in a row, there is still a crisis on hand. Tom Milliken, TRAFFIC’s Rhino Programme Leader, <a href="http://www.traffic.org/home/2018/1/25/south-africa-rhino-poaching-in-2017-almost-matches-2016-figu.html">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The marginally lower total in 2017 still remains unacceptably high and with close to three rhinos illegally killed in South Africa every single day…the crisis continues </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Anti-poaching operations in the world famous Kruger National Park have achieved considerable success. But rhino poaching has soared in KwaZulu-Natal and several other provinces. The Kruger has increased patrols, the size and sophistication of anti-poaching units and worked with the South African army to secure the areas with the largest rhino populations, but smaller parks and reserves do not have the resources to do this.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rhino-poaching-in-south-africa-are-numbers-falling-or-focus-shifting-65358">Rhino poaching in South Africa: are numbers falling or focus shifting?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The biggest danger is that poaching is changing focus by moving from concentration on the Kruger National Park to other provinces and reserves, which lack Kruger’s resources. This is a major threat as it stretches the limited anti-poaching capabilities outside a park like Kruger and demonstrates the flexibility of the poaching networks.</p>
<h2>Successes in the Kruger but failure elsewhere</h2>
<p>Minister Molewa <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/mediarelease/molewa_highlightsprogressonimplementationofintegratedstrategicmanagementofrhinoceros">praised</a> the efforts in the Kruger Park, the biggest single site of poaching. A total of 504 rhinos were poached there in 2017, down from 662 in 2016, according to Molewa. But she said poaching in other areas of the country was becoming more serious than before. In particular, there are concerns about rhino killings in KwaZulu-Natal, Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State and North West. </p>
<p>While rhino poaching had declined in the Kruger, elephant poaching was on the rise. In 2017, <a href="http://www.poachingfacts.com/poaching-statistics/elephant-poaching-statistics/">67 elephants were killed</a> compared with 46 in 2016 and 22 in 2015. The reason is that an intensive protection zone has been established a couple of years ago, in central and southern areas of the park where rhinos are concentrated. Elephant poaching has risen outside the zone, where poaching syndicates can no longer easily kill rhino and so poach elephants.</p>
<p>A provincial breakdown <a href="https://africageographic.com/blog/rhino-poaching-update-we-look-behind-the-numbers/">shows that</a> rhino poaching was down in Kruger but up in the rest of Mpumalanga province it was up by 54% to 49 killed; it was up 37% in KwaZulu-Natal (222 rhinos); 72% in North West province (96 rhinos) and 100% in Northern Cape (doubled to 24 killed). In KwaZulu-Natal, the vast majority of the 222 rhino killed up from 162 in 2016 were government-owned rhinos on smaller national parks or reserves away from Kruger. Less than 5% were killed on privately owned reserves.</p>
<h2>Corruption and mismanagement</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/mediarelease/molewa_highlightsprogressonimplementationofintegratedstrategicmanagementofrhinoceros">Molewa</a> pledged to keep working to fight poaching and smuggling and to learn from past mistakes. But she made scant reference to areas that need urgent attention – corruption and mismanagement. </p>
<p>Milliken <a href="http://www.traffic.org/home/2018/1/25/south-africa-rhino-poaching-in-2017-almost-matches-2016-figu.html">pointed</a> to the dysfunctional National Prosecuting Authority and Crime Intelligence division of South Africa’s police, two of the country’s main crime fighting institutions. Poachers are frequently caught but the organisers rarely traced or if they are prosecutions are slow and sentences light.</p>
<p>Cathy Dean, CEO of the British based Save the Rhino NGO is particularly concerned about the KwaZulu-Natal poaching crisis and the failure of the justice system. The inability to do anything to speed up the prosecution of alleged poaching kingpins who have been charged with poaching but not come to court, like Hugo Ras, Dawie Groenewald, ‘Big Joe’ Nyalunga and Dumisani Gwala, whose trials have been repeatedly delayed by incompetence in the justice system or the seeming lack of enthusiasm of the law enforcement and prosecuting authorities to make it a priority is concerning.</p>
<p>Corruption and mismanagement in the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Reserve in KwaZulu-Natal have been alleged and blamed for the failure to cope with the rise in poaching there, with under funding and staff morale major issues. Sources within the park have told me and local conservation NGOs that anti-poaching units are being stopped from patrolling poaching hotspots at particular times; and staff and South African conservation NGOs have raised concerns about financial irregularities.</p>
<p>Two years ago, the head of KwaZulu-Natal Ezemvelo Wildlife (which manages the park), <a href="http://www.kznwildlife.com/news-and-events/1270-helicopters-just-one-tool-in-the-fight-against-poaching.html">David Mabunda</a>, referred to the huge problem of:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>increasing levels of corruption among our ranks, the police, immigration officials and other law enforcement … The number of corruption cases in wildlife management is making our efforts to achieve success more difficult.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It doesn’t seem like much has been done at all to <a href="https://www.savingthewild.com/2017/10/ezemvelo-rhino-massacres/">curb corruption</a> in the park as reports of corruption keep surfacing.</p>
<h2>No cause for complacency</h2>
<p>The fall in the number of rhinos killed should not be rejected as meaningless. It shows that strong, well-funded local action can work. But this should not lead to complacency. Poaching networks and the smuggling rings linked to them are flexible and feed off incompetence, mismanagement and corruption. </p>
<p>These problems are at the heart of politics, national and local government <a href="https://theconversation.com/corruption-in-south-africa-business-leader-answers-questions-on-how-bad-it-is-85406">in South Africa</a>. Until they are cracked, the killing will go on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Somerville does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Poaching is changing focus by moving from the Kruger National Park to other provinces and reserves.Keith Somerville, Visiting Professor, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/811492017-08-01T17:58:42Z2017-08-01T17:58:42ZWhat camera traps tell us about elephants eating crops<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179317/original/file-20170723-28465-536uzm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Southern Tanzania Elephant Program used camera traps to capture elephant visits to farmland.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">STEP/Author supplied</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An important conservation goal is to try and ensure that people and wildlife can coexist. This is especially important when it comes to elephants, whose large home ranges and long distance movements take them outside of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1365-3008.2000.00092.x/full">protected areas</a>.</p>
<p>One of the major challenges to coexistence is the use of food crops by elephants. This threatens the <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/endangered_species/elephants/human_elephant_conflict.cfm">livelihoods, food security</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320712003345">well-being</a> of rural communities. Elephant forays into farmland sometimes results in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard_Hoare/publication/278051645_Lessons_from_15_years_of_human-elephant_conflict_mitigation_Management_considerations_involving_biological_physical_and_governance_issues_in_Africa/links/557bde4808aeea18b7751990/Lessons-from-15-years-of-human-elephant-conflict-mitigation-Management-considerations-involving-biological-physical-and-governance-issues-in-Africa.pdf">retaliatory and legal killings under the Problem Animal Control laws</a> and erosion of support for elephant conservation efforts.</p>
<p>For people and elephants to thrive in the long-term, it’s important to find ways to mitigate the impact of the animal on people’s lives and livelihoods, and vice versa. To find effective solutions, we need to understand why elephants eat crops rather than fodder from the bush and how they learn about crops as a source of food.</p>
<p>To explore these questions our team at the <a href="http://www.stzelephants.org/">Southern Tanzania Elephant Program</a> used camera traps to capture elephant <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/oryx/article/using-camera-traps-to-study-the-agesex-structure-and-behaviour-of-cropusing-elephants-loxodonta-africana-in-udzungwa-mountains-national-park-tanzania/AAB225F1915E73FAF278B8B2F5BA7E56">visits to farmland</a>. The cameras were set up in an area adjacent to the Udzungwa Mountains National Park in Tanzania between 2010 and 2014. </p>
<p>We placed camera traps on elephant trails on the National Park boundary to photograph elephants as they travelled in and out of neighbouring farmland. We then studied the camera trap photos to identify individual elephants from key distinguishing features like ears and tusks.</p>
<h2>High-risk, high-reward</h2>
<p>All the elephants photographed by our camera traps were males. This is consistent with <a href="https://academic.oup.com/beheco/article/22/3/552/269150/No-risk-no-gain-effects-of-crop-raiding-and">previous studies</a> suggesting that eating crops is a high risk, high reward feeding strategy for males. Females have been <a href="https://anotherbobsmith.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/smith_kasiki_00_hec.pdf">documented</a> to feed on crops, but they are generally less likely to visit farms because of the risks involved to their young.</p>
<p>Age also plays a role. Our study, as well as previous studies in <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0031382">Amboseli, Kenya</a> and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2028.2005.00577.x/full">Kibale, Uganda</a> found that eating crops appears related to specific <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0031382">milestones</a> in a male elephant’s life. </p>
<p>Two particular milestones stood out: the start of reproduction in bulls when they reach the ages of between 20-30 years, and their reproductive peak years in their 40s. When males reach these milestones, they are more willing to take risks and have increased energetic demands. Crops are an attractive source of food for males seeking to maximise their <a href="https://academic.oup.com/beheco/article/22/3/552/269150/No-risk-no-gain-effects-of-crop-raiding-and">body size and reproductive success</a>. </p>
<p>How do males learn about crops as a food source? In Udzungwa, we found that young bulls aged 10-14 years visited farms. This is the age when males typically leave their maternal family groups, so they may be discovering farms during the process. It’s also possible that they learn about crops from older elephants. <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0031382">Researchers in Amboseli</a> found that young bulls learnt about crops from older bulls and that male social networks shaped behaviour.</p>
<h2>How many eat crops?</h2>
<p>Some <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.01967.x/full">studies</a> have investigated how many bulls eat crops, and how their feeding habits vary. In Udzungwa we identified 48 different elephants from our camera trap photos. With so many bulls visiting the farmland in our study site, we couldn’t attribute the crop damage to just a few habitual males. </p>
<p>We also found that the frequency of visits varied between individual bulls. Two-thirds were seen only once over the four-year study period, suggesting that these bulls visit farms infrequently. One-third of the bulls were seen multiple times and 18% more than twice over the study period. These males may be using crops more regularly. But even among these repeat offenders, males varied considerably in how often they visited farms. </p>
<p>In Kenya by comparison, researchers estimated that 12% of Amboseli bulls and 21% of bulls from the wider Amboseli, Kilimanjaro and Tsavo-Chyulu populations <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.01967.x/full">were repeat crop eaters</a>. Combined, this evidence suggests that the majority of bulls occasionally use crops, while a small proportion may use them more frequently. </p>
<h2>Strategies</h2>
<p>Strategies to reduce crop losses to elephants should consider that most bulls consume crops infrequently. So, killing elephants for eating crops is unlikely to significantly reduce crop loss. Taking lethal action is also costly, for it affects those older bulls who are more likely to be eating crops. Killing these older bulls removes a crucial source of <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/10/151017-zimbabwe-elephant-tusker-trophy-hunting-poaching-conservation-africa-ivory-trade/">ecological knowledge as well as important breeding individuals</a>. This is particularly damaging to elephant populations already under threat from ivory poaching. </p>
<p>There are much better non-lethal options for reducing crop losses to elephants. These include <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12898/full">beehive fences</a> and land use planning which involves carefully assessing land for the best possible use. These approaches require strong commitment, community buy-in and creativity. But, as we’ve found in our <a href="http://www.stzelephants.org/projects/human-elephants-co-existence/">work</a> in Tanzania, they offer promising avenues for improving the chances of farmers and elephants being able to coexist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josephine B. Smit and co-authors received funding from the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Idea Wild, Yale University's Summer Environmental Fellowship, and Richter Summer Fellowship to conduct the study described in the article. She is a PhD student at the University of Stirling and works for Southern Tanzania Elephant Program.</span></em></p>Elephants feeding on crops poses a challenge to their coexistence with humans. Farmers must introduce strategies to reduce losses and avoid lethal action against the endangered species.Josephine B. Smit, PhD Candidate, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807192017-07-12T15:34:34Z2017-07-12T15:34:34ZForeign ‘conservation armies’ in Africa may be doing more harm than good<p>Conservation is becoming more militarised, and it is cause for serious concern. Rising rates of elephant and rhino poaching in Africa, and fears of a link between poachers and terrorists, have led to foreign national armies, private military companies and even UN peacekeeping forces all moving into wildlife protection.</p>
<p>Not everyone is happy to see them: the <a href="http://www.gameranger.org/news-views/media-releases/170-media-statement-the-use-of-military-and-security-personnel-and-tactics-in-the-training-of-africa-s-rangers.html">Game Rangers Association of Africa</a> recently issued a statement raising concerns about the growth of military personnel from beyond Africa involved in ranger training and anti-poaching operations across the continent. </p>
<p>The private contractors, current serving soldiers, and groups of army veterans currently working across Africa are all very different kinds of “conservation armies”. But the common thread is that they are contributing to the development of a more forceful and militarised phase of wildlife protection.</p>
<h2>Ivory and terrorism</h2>
<p>Often, terrorism is used to justify a military presence in national parks and game reserves. But, though linking ivory with terrorism makes for attention grabbing headlines, there is <a href="https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-papers/poaching-wildlife-trafficking-and-security-africa-myths-and-realities">no credible evidence</a> to support such claims.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177727/original/file-20170711-14431-3r43et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than 80% of Gabon’s forest elephants were killed between 2004 and 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">zahorec / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>British newspaper, The Daily Mirror, recently ran a story about British troops <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/elite-british-troops-trail-elephant-10721620">training rangers in Gabon</a>, and claimed it was part of a strategy to fight international terrorism. Readers were told that ivory poaching in Gabon is linked to Boko Haram. The story was repeated by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/british-troops-elephant-poachers-ivory-terror-africa-gabon-boko-haram-jihadists-extremists-a7820236.html">The Independent</a> a few days later, citing the Mirror as the source. However, Boko Haram are not reliant on the ivory trade for their funds, and they are <a href="https://africasustainableconservation.com/2017/07/04/gabon-ivory-poaching-a-new-and-misleading-narrative-on-boko-haram-poaching/">not operational in Gabon</a> either. </p>
<p>It can be difficult to criticise foreign troops for engaging in what appears to be two good causes. Who would seriously be against either saving elephants or fighting Boko Haram? And if the same operation can do both at once, even better.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"871868423541727233"}"></div></p>
<p>But this image of a benevolent “eco-military” distracts from asking other important questions like what drives poaching in the first place, what role poverty plays, why Gabon is poor despite <a href="https://www.riskadvisory.net/news/gabon-tackling-the-resource-curse.php">significant oil reserves</a>, and whether or not the new military presence has been welcomed by locals.</p>
<p>The claims about Gabon, ivory and Boko Haram are reminiscent of headlines and slogans back in 2013-14 about ivory being the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/01/opinion/the-white-gold-of-jihad.html">white gold of jihad</a>, centring on claims that East African Islamist militant group Al Shabaab was funded by ivory. This has been thoroughly criticised and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/opinion/the-ivory-funded-terrorism-myth.html">debunked</a>. Al Shabaab’s main sources of income remain the <a href="http://biosec.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/Nellemann-et-al-2014_UNEP_INTERPOL-Environmental-Crime-Crisis-2015.pdf">regional charcoal trade, informal taxation at roadblocks and ports</a>, and donations from <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-2346.12147/abstract">overseas supporters</a>. But the story had traction – it suited everyone from conservation NGOs who wanted more funds, to governments concerned about terrorism, and private security services who saw a chance to expand their operations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BOxnAN3AdTH","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>From Afghanistan to Africa</h2>
<p>Several of the new conservation armies operating in Africa have other aims, which are much closer to home. The US-based <a href="http://vetpaw.org">Veterans Empowered to Protect African Wildlife</a> (VETPAW) is a good example. The organisation aims to reduce unemployment rates among post-9/11 war veterans by using their skills to train rangers and take on the poachers directly. </p>
<p>VETPAW initially provided anti-poaching services in Tanzania. However, in 2015 the government <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/9/2/anti-poaching-project-misfires-in-tanzania.html">ordered them to leave</a> after comments from one member, US army veteran Kinessa Johnson, about “killing bad guys” went viral and attracted negative publicity. The organisation is currently contracted to run anti-poaching operations <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/30/us-army-veterans-find-peace-protecting-rhinos-poaching-south-africa">in private reserves in South Africa</a>, where it claims the activity helps veterans find peace and cope with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).</p>
<p>But these examples only tell one side of the story. We need to think about what kind of conservation this drives on the ground, and how it looks to communities living near the increasingly militarised conservation sites. <a href="http://www.survivalinternational.org/conservation">Survival International</a> and <a href="http://www.rainforestfoundationuk.org/media.ashx/protectedareasinthecongobasin-failingbothpeopleandbiodiversity-november2014.pdf">Rainforest Foundation UK</a> have led campaigns against the abuses of forest-dependent communities in Central Africa and the Congo Basin as a result of more militarised conservation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177858/original/file-20170712-7443-zpkbz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Eco guards’ are alleged to have physically abused hunter-gatherer Baka people and destroyed their camps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sergey Uryadnikov / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In one <a href="http://www.survivalinternational.org/news/11561">well-documented case</a>, Baka people in Cameroon were allegedly abused by eco-guards who had been trained by a private company and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/05/oecd-to-examine-complaint-against-wwf-over-human-rights-abuses-in-cameroon">funded by the WWF</a>. Though such stories document the use of violence against some of the most marginalised peoples in the world, they don’t grab headlines as easily as a friendly “eco-army”.</p>
<p>At best British troops will only ever provide a short-term fix to Gabon’s poaching problem, and the same goes for private militaries and security services across the continent. They are not capable of (or concerned with) addressing the complex and poorly understood reasons <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12622/abstract">why poaching persists</a>. These include poverty, a desire for status, and coercion of vulnerable communities by organised wildlife traffickers. Poaching is also a longer-term consequence of decisions by colonial regimes to create <a href="http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/17836/1/EoD_HD059_Jun2013_Poverty_Poaching.pdf">protected areas for sport hunting and safaris</a>, while banning locals from subsistence hunting. And of course it is driven by increasing demand from wealthier countries for exotic wildlife products.</p>
<p>In the longer-term, “conservation armies” can’t fix any of the above. At worst, they will be counter productive and alienate the very communities needed to make conservation work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rosaleen Duffy receives funding from The European Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council. She has also undertaken some consultancy work on the illegal wildlife trade for the UK Department for International Development and for the Trade Committee of the European Parliament. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Dickinson receives funding from the European Research Council as part of the BIOSEC project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laure Joanny receives funding from the European Research Council as part of the BIOSEC project.</span></em></p>Protecting rhinos and fighting terrorism are both noble causes, but there isn’t much evidence of a link between the two.Rosaleen Duffy, Professor of International Politics, University of SheffieldHannah Dickinson, PhD Researcher in Wildlife Trafficking, University of SheffieldLaure Joanny, PhD Researcher on Green Surveillance Technologies, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/710902017-01-11T09:51:50Z2017-01-11T09:51:50ZChina’s ban on domestic ivory trade is huge, but the battle isn’t won<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152222/original/image-20170110-29024-l0gu2p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China plans to ban the ivory trade. The hope is that prices will be driven downwards and elephant numbers will improve.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ross Harvey</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China has <a href="https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9578/China-Announcement-of-Domestic-Ivory-Ban-in-2017--English-Translation.aspx">published a notice</a> that the processing and sale of ivory and ivory products “will be stopped by December 31, 2017”. China’s credible commitment to this end follows <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/WorkingDocs/E-CoP17-57-02.pdf">a decision</a> taken at the latest Convention on International Trade in Endangered Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) conference to end all domestic trade in ivory.</p>
<p>China has made announcements of intent before, in May and September 2015. Concrete action was missing in terms of the duration of the ban and a timetable for implementation. Now both are effectively in place. </p>
<p>By March this year a portion of registered ivory sale and processing sites will stop operating. Sale activities on ivory and its products will cease. The remainder will stop by the end of the year. </p>
<p>The announcement doesn’t specify how long the ban will be in place, but the wording implies that the trade will not resume. </p>
<p>This is good news for elephant conservation in Africa. </p>
<p>Wildlife experts estimate that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/30/world/asia/china-ivory-ban-elephants.html?_r=0">50 to 70%</a> of poached ivory ends up in China. A <a href="http://danstiles.org/publications/ivory/43.Analysis%20of%20Demand.pdf">recent report</a> estimated that 200 metric tonnes (MT) a year of illegal ivory entered China-Hong Kong between 2010 and 2014. Only 6-8 MT of that annually was estimated to have been sold illegally. This suggests that a massive volume of ivory is being illegally stockpiled for speculative purposes. So it’s crucial to understand the impact that the ban will have on speculator behaviour.</p>
<h2>Owning the value chain</h2>
<p>African elephants are being slaughtered for their tusks at an alarming rate, according to the <a href="http://www.greatelephantcensus.com/final-report/">Great Elephant Census</a>. Mortality rates of around 8% exceed birth rates, constituting a serious threat to elephant survival. To satisfy demand in East Asia, organised crime syndicates have moved to try and control the entire value chain by vertically integrating each facet of the trade.</p>
<p>On the supply side this has meant the use of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jun/04/lords-resistance-army-funded-elephant-poaching">sophisticated weaponry</a> and <a href="https://eia-international.org/wp-content/uploads/EIA-Vanishing-Point-lo-res1.pdf">the infiltration</a> of anti-poaching agencies. It has also meant that there is <a href="https://eia-international.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Inside-Story-lo-res.pdf">corruption</a> throughout the distribution route from state officials to the police, customs, port and tax authorities. </p>
<p>At the retail end of the supply chain, <a href="http://www.wwf.se/source.php/1578610/out%20of%20africa.pdf">anecdotal evidence</a> suggests that some syndicates have sought to open their own illicit outlets in addition to stockpiling ivory.</p>
<p>For as long as domestic trade remained legal in China, it was easy to launder illicit ivory into officially recognised legal outlets. This prompted the international community – at the last CITES conference – to <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/Com_II/E-CoP17-Com-II-06.pdf">vote overwhelmingly</a> in favour of putting an end to commercial domestic trade in ivory.</p>
<h2>But will it work?</h2>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/general-publications/1104-2016-09-19-snap-working-paper-for-saiia-rev/file">paper</a> published in September 2016 we examined how speculators might respond to a domestic trade ban in China. <a href="http://danstiles.org/publications/ivory/43.Analysis%20of%20Demand.pdf">Given the evidence</a> that a significant volume of ivory is being stockpiled, we sought to understand the incentive structures that might be driving speculator activity. </p>
<p>We distinguished between wholesale and private speculators. </p>
<p>Private speculators probably account for only a small proportion of total ivory consumption. They may be individuals purchasing ivory either as a collector’s item or as an “inflation-proof” investment vehicle. In this category, the market structure would likely be quite competitive.</p>
<p>Not so for wholesale speculators. These are likely to be large syndicates that are either oligopolistic or monopolistic in structure. They appear to have an incentive to drive elephants to the brink of extinction. Syndicates would not want potential competitors to access living elephant stock. If elephants were to become exceedingly scarce, the value of their ivory would skyrocket. Trade in the products of extinct species is difficult to regulate, and exceeds the CITES mandate. </p>
<p>Speculators would have had every incentive to stockpile ivory in anticipation of earning future monopoly rents prior to the announcement of a domestic trade ban in China. This explains the <a href="http://danstiles.org/publications/ivory/43.Analysis%20of%20Demand.pdf">discrepancy</a> between the volume of ivory entering China (as extrapolated from seizure date) and the volume being sold (even illegally).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152355/original/image-20170111-6422-x8m99d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A massive volume of ivory is being illegally stockpiled for speculative purposes in China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/animalrescueblog/11805693745/in/photolist-iZfz5p-iZfzov-iZfzEc-iZegvR-iZefSr-iZi8ey-iZeg9P-iZegrT-iZfyWt-iZgokY-iZgoBE-iZi8rC-hwc6Af-hwbQgB-hwbXGQ-rRX4zv-hwc8NG-huo4vn-rAaVND-rA4pM9-uvFsHp-uvsKqD">International Fund for Animal Welfare Animal Rescue/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The quicker the better</h2>
<p>Our paper argued that the Chinese domestic ban should be imposed as soon as possible, and for an indefinite duration. Chinese authorities have now, with minor (reasonable) exceptions, committed to doing so. That is good news – the quicker the better. The longer the ban takes to be implemented, the longer speculators have to sell ivory off. In that scenario the ivory price is only likely to decline slowly, if at all. The sooner the ban is implemented, the more ivory speculators will have to offload in a short space of time, driving prices down. Lower prices will disincentivise poaching. </p>
<p>Opponents of the ban typically argue that prices will rise in anticipation of future scarcity. But this depends both on who is buying and how long speculators believe the ban will be in place. </p>
<p>Ivory prices <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/about-ste/press-media/?detail=sharp-fall-in-the-prices-of-elephant-tusks-in-china">declined</a> by half in the 18-month period from June 2014 to December 2015. This suggests that anticipation of future scarcity was not driving prices up as expected. If speculators believed that the domestic trade would be banned, they may have gotten rid of their ivory more quickly. Demand may also have been declining as a result of lower income levels and the efficacy of demand reduction campaigns. </p>
<p>But if wholesale speculators believe that the ban will only be temporary they would have an incentive to maintain their stockpiles until legal sales resumed. In the meanwhile, they would continue to poach to maintain or build a monopoly on the available ivory stock.</p>
<p>So, it is good news that the official wording of the ban does not suggest the possibility of future trade. It may have been preferable to state this explicitly. But that may have been too politically prickly.</p>
<p>A domestic trade ban in China may spur what economists call a “fire sale” where stockholders offload large volumes of stock at the same time. This drives prices exponentially downwards. It remains to be seen whether this will happen. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/world/africa/africa-ivory-china.html?_r=0">Recent reports</a> suggest that ivory processing and sales are increasingly moving into Vietnam, simply moving the problem to a different geographic location with little effect on prices. </p>
<p>How prices respond to the news will provide some indication of whether the speculation in our paper was correct. Either way, the hope is that prices will be driven downwards, disincentivising poaching and protecting elephants.</p>
<h2>What’s still missing</h2>
<p>A domestic trade ban is only one spanner in a complex toolkit to achieve sustainable elephant populations. It is nonetheless a crucial one: a strong signal of change from a country that recently marketed the ivory trade as a heritage industry. </p>
<p>There are, however, other threats such as habitat fragmentation and encroachment. Add to this increasing human and elephant conflict, and a thriving bush-meat trade, and it’s clear that long-term elephant survival is at risk. </p>
<p>Another complexity is the availability of <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/08/wildlife-woolly-mammoth-ivory-trade-legal-china-african-elephant-poaching/">mammoth</a>, or fossil ivory, which can be traded legally.</p>
<p><a href="https://econ.ucalgary.ca/sites/econ.ucalgary.ca/files/naimafarahw15.pdf">Some argue</a> that its availability substitutes for elephant ivory and therefore slows the rate of elephant killing. Others worry that it simply provides another laundering mechanism because it’s plausible that elephant ivory will be passed off as mammoth ivory.</p>
<p>Ultimately, elephants need to be valued as being worth more alive than dead by two crucial constituents. Consumers need to make the cultural shift to seeing ivory as belonging to elephants alone. <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/occasional-papers/ensuring-elephant-survival-through-improving-community-benefits">Community members</a> on the front line of conservation and human-elephant conflict need to receive significant benefits from keeping elephants alive and their habitats intact. Only then will the battle be won.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>During 2016, SAIIA received funding from Stop Ivory (UK). Ross works for SAIIA, an independent, not-for-profit think-tank. </span></em></p>China has decided to end all domestic trade in ivory, an act that could help elephant numbers all over Africa.Ross Harvey, Senior Researcher in Natural Resource Governance (Africa), South African Institute of International AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/708732017-01-08T07:14:26Z2017-01-08T07:14:26ZWhy Zimbabwe’s use of elephants to pay off old debt to China is problematic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151813/original/image-20170105-18668-deutm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Zimbabwe are looking to sell 35 young elephants to China in the hopes of settling an old debt.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A bizarre story has recently come out of Zimbabwe. Grace Mugabe, the politically powerful wife of the ageing president Robert Mugabe, has come up with a plan to settle <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zimbabwark-to-settle-mugabe-debt-vww9ctqrb">a debt to China</a> with 35 young elephants, eight lions, 12 hyenas and a giraffe. The debt was incurred in 1998 when Zimbabwe sent troops and bought equipment from China to help President Laurent Kabila in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Kabila needed help fighting off a rebel movement backed by Uganda and Rwanda.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe’s use of live wildlife as a commodity is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/23/zimbabwe-ships-live-elephants-to-wildlife-parks-in-china">nothing new</a>. And it’s not the only country to do so. It is quite common for southern African states to sell what they consider to be surplus animals to zoos or safari parks outside Africa. </p>
<p>In January 2016, the US Fish and Wildlife Service gave the go ahead for Swaziland to export 18 elephants to <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/01/160122-Swaziland-Elephants-Import-US-Zoos/">zoos in the US</a>. Between 2010 and 2014 an estimated 500 white rhinos and 20 elephants were exported from <a href="http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/09/28/live-elephant-and-rhino-trade-debated-at-wildlife-convention/">African range states</a>. </p>
<p>Animals are also exported to restock parks or reserves elsewhere on the continent. <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/05/20/overpopulated-conservancy-seeks-ship-excess-lions/">Zimbabwe’s Bubye Valley Conservancy</a>, for example, is arranging to send 8-10 lions to Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia. The aim is to help them re-establish prides in areas depleted of lions.</p>
<p>The sale of live animals is <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/12/141217-zimbabwe-china-elephants-zoos-tuli-botswana-south-africa/">highly controversial</a>, but not illegal as long as rules established by <a href="https://www.cites.org/">CITES</a> are followed. These require that live exports only be between two CITES members and that both parties’ management authorities for CITES ensure that the export permits are valid.</p>
<p>The authorities need to ensure that “the export of the animals would not be detrimental to the survival of the species in the wild” and would be taken to “to appropriate and acceptable destinations”. </p>
<p>But the removal of young elephants from their herds – as happened in Zimbabwe – is highly damaging to the animals and to the herd as a whole. This form of removal has been called a <a href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/grace-mugabe-pays-military-debt-to-china-with-35-zim-jumbos-report-20161227y">“a mad act of cruelty”.</a></p>
<p>The Zimbabwean embassy in China has denied the reports of the sale and there has been no word from the environment minister in Harare. The story will be embarrassing for China at a time when it is basking in praise over its announcement of a coming ban on <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/china-ban-ivory-trade-2017-161230183540915.html">ivory working and retail sales</a>.</p>
<h2>Why selling live elephants is a problem</h2>
<p>At the CITES Conference of the Parties in Johannesburg last year members of the <a href="https://cites.org/eng/news/Current_rules_commercial_international_trade_elephant_ivory_under_CITES_Proposals_CITES_CoP17_200716">African Elephant Coalition</a> – a 29 member grouping of African states opposed to any trade in ivory or the export outside the continent of live elephants – attempted to get the CITES regulation changed to limit exports to relocation inside Africa and to ban exports to other continents. It was opposed by southern African states and China and did not get sufficient support to go to a vote. Instead a US compromise proposal was passed tightening the export regulations and attempting to ensure that ivory or horn from exported live animals did not enter the illegal trade system.</p>
<p>One of the concerns raised by NGOs and wildlife activists about the export of live elephants to China is that they will at some stage be farmed and their ivory harvested to be sold at a huge profit. <a href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/grace-mugabe-pays-military-debt-to-china-with-35-zim-jumbos-report-20161227">This fear was expressed by conservationists</a> when news about Zimbabwe’s most recent debt-settling plan emerged. </p>
<p>There is also concern that animals go to zoos with <a href="http://varsity.com.cuhk.edu.hk/index.php/2012/01/animal-performance-china/">poor welfare records</a> or where cruel methods will be used to make the animals into little more than circus performers.</p>
<h2>Zimbabwe’s justification</h2>
<p>Zimbabwean ministers and wildlife officials have for years defended the regular sale of elephants and other wildlife to China. They have justified it by saying they need to reduce pressure of numbers in over-stocked reserves and raise funds for conservation. But there is no proof that the money raised goes back into conservation and clearly using elephants to settle military-related debts does little for conservation. </p>
<p>The official Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority <a href="http://www.zimparks.org/index.php/mc/176-live-sales-of-elephants">website</a> justifies live exports as a means of sustainably supporting conservation and reducing pressure of numbers on eco-systems. Over-population of elephants, in particular, can damage habitats, put pressure on other vulnerable species and lead to conflict with local communities, whose crops may be damaged or destroyed.</p>
<p>But while a conservation case may be made quite cogently for limiting numbers, the export of live animals seems more related to profit than sustainable use conservation. And the fate of live animals exported is also being questioned. There are <a href="http://traveller24.news24.com/Explore/Green/shockwildlifetruths-zim-baby-elephants-heading-for-chinese-zoo-20161107">reports</a> that, when the young elephants were being captured in Zimbabwe, 37 were caught but only 35 were sold to China because two died soon after capture.</p>
<p>The Zimbabwean Minister of the Environment, Water and Climate, Oppiah Muchinguri-Kashiri strongly advocates the sale of animals to raise money. But she doesn’t appear to have a strong grasp of the facts of conservation and the trade in animals or their products. This is evident in how adamant she was that Zimbabwe could sell its ivory stockpile to China despite the CITES decision.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Zimbabwe is forging ahead with planned sales to raise desperately needed cash. Reports from the <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/about-elephants-2-3/elephant-news-post/?detail=cecil-the-lion-family-might-be-targeted-for-zimbabwe-export-to-china-zoo">Zimbabwe Conservation Task Force</a> in September last year said that the Zimbabwe Wildlife Department was capturing animals to meet an order from China for 130 elephants and 50 lions. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35233259">January last year</a> the minister defended past sales and said they would be continued. In the previous six months Zimbabwe had sold 100 elephants to Chinese zoos at a cost of $40,000 each.</p>
<p>It is very clear that Zimbabwe’s environment minister and wildlife authorities have no qualms about the questionable trade in live animals. They are willing to sell animals to Chinese zoos and safari parks, some of which have less than <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150925-elephants-china-zimbabwe-cites-joyce-poole-zoos-wildlife-trade/">spotless records for animal welfare</a> and are <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2861424/Is-cute-cruel-Activists-fear-treatment-animals-Chinese-wildlife-park-home-biggest-population-koalas-outside-Australia.html">barely distinguishable from circuses</a>. </p>
<p>One destination for Zimbabwean elephants is the huge and widely criticised <a href="http://varsity.com.cuhk.edu.hk/index.php/2012/01/animal-performance-china/">Chimelong Wildlife Park</a>, which includes a circus and stages a variety of dubious performances and stunts involving its animals. </p>
<p>It is hard to draw a clear line to show where justifiable sustainable-use and sheer exploitation for profit begins. But it is clear that Zimbabwe and China have crossed that line.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70873/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Somerville does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Zimbabwe are looking to resolve a debt to China by selling animals to them. But one of the concerns is that the elephants sold will eventually be farmed and their ivory harvested.Keith Somerville, Visiting Professor, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/664332016-10-10T17:39:11Z2016-10-10T17:39:11ZA populist tighter ivory trade ban is not enough to save Africa’s elephants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140847/original/image-20161007-8965-qb6sce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 27-year old ban on international ivory trade has clearly failed to deliver a sustained solution to the poaching crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A disproportionate amount of the agenda at The 17th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on the Trade of Endangered Species (CITES) was dominated by African elephants and the controversial issue of the ivory trade. African elephants have declined by more than 100,000 over the past <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/714180/Thousands-African-elephants-poached-ivory-numbers-decline-conservationist">decade</a>. This is driven to a large extent by the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/poaching-behind-worst-african-elephant-losses-25-years-%E2%80%93-iucn-report">surge in poaching</a> due to the rising price of <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/poaching-behind-worst-african-elephant-losses-25-years-%E2%80%93-iucn-report">ivory</a>. </p>
<p>The debate on how to respond to this crisis is very polarised. On the one side countries like Namibia, supported by pro-use NGOs, argue that hundreds of thousands of elephants have been lost to poaching since the ban was put in place in 1989 and that it has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/01/debate-can-legal-ivory-trade-save-elephants?0p19G=c">served as an incentive to poachers</a> because it reduces supply and increases prices. </p>
<p>Their proposed solution is a highly regulated legal trade in ivory that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ban-on-ivory-sales-has-been-an-abject-failure-a-rethink-is-needed-65665">will provide funds</a> for conservation and incentives to rural people to conserve elephants and their habitat.</p>
<p>The opposing argument is that only a complete trade ban - both domestic and international - can work because the continued existence of domestic ivory markets, and one-off sales of ivory stockpiles, enables poached ivory to be laundered. This in turn <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/01/debate-can-legal-ivory-trade-save-elephants?0p19G=c">fuels the poaching crisis</a>. Countries like Kenya, strongly supported by animal welfare organisations and some conservation NGOs, hold this view. </p>
<p>It is this second perspective that has the strongest support as reflected by a large majority of member countries of the World Conservation Union adopting a motion to support the closure of domestic <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/congress/motion/007">ivory markets</a>. This momentum continued at the CITES CoP17 with an agreed resolution encouraging the closure and tighter enforcement of domestic ivory markets.</p>
<p>But the 27-year old ban on international ivory trade has clearly failed to deliver a sustained solution to the poaching crisis. Yes, it has helped reduce poaching in some areas, but it is unclear that the stronger ban that includes the closing down of domestic markets will help conserve elephants. </p>
<h2>Resounding no to ivory trade</h2>
<p>The proposals by Namibia and Zimbabwe to sell ivory were defeated. Opponents of these proposals argued that any sale was likely to further stimulate demand and would enable laundering of illegal ivory. </p>
<p>The strong opposition is despite the fact that studies commissioned by CITES - that the parties to CITES agreed to and participated in - found no evidence that previous stockpile sales resulted in an increased poaching. The last one took place in 2009. Instead, these studies, and peer-reviewed research found that variables such as poverty levels, law enforcement capacity, governance and corruption, and commodity and investment cycles were more important <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/WorkingDocs/E-CoP17-57-05.pdf">in explaining poaching</a> <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914002717">levels</a>. </p>
<h2>An era of populism</h2>
<p>But we live in an era of populism where simple silver bullet solutions to complex problems gain support. Examples include BREXIT and building walls to keep out unwanted <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/donald-trump-wall-mexico/483156/">immigrants</a>. A global international and domestic ban on ivory is a similarly appealing simple solution to a complex challenge that manifests differently in different countries. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140850/original/image-20161007-8965-1rvk47c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many African
countries bid to trade their natural ivory stockpiles. They believe this will fund conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In both South Africa and Namibia, for example, sustainable use of wildlife is enshrined in the constitution. And enforcing a domestic ban faces serious legal difficulties. In addition, China, one of the largest consumer countries, has already agreed to enforce <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?253490/China-and-US-pledge-to-end-domestic-ivory-trade">a domestic ivory ban</a>. </p>
<p>It is therefore unclear what additional gains there are from a continued push for a domestic ban in all countries. Critics feel that the underlying reasoning and motivations are simplistic and questionable. Yet the path of stricter bans is what the world has chosen on ivory at this point - and pro-use southern African countries and NGOs need to come to terms with this. </p>
<h2>Taking a new view</h2>
<p>The push for a global ban of international and domestic markets should be seen as a policy experiment. It may work to reduce poaching which will be a tremendous outcome for Africa’s elephants. But the conservation community needs to make sure that this stronger ban is not just rhetoric. The impact of actions like the continued ban on international trade and the closure of the Chinese and other domestic ivory markets need to be monitored, and measured. To this effect, the following measures are urgently needed.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>An agreed, independent, rigorous, framework and mechanism in which the price of ivory is monitored on the black market. If the strategy of more encompassing bans is successful in reducing demand, the price of ivory will drop, and continue to drop.</p></li>
<li><p>Attitudes towards purchasing ivory in demand countries. The motivations of buyers of ivory in countries like China <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714003371">are diverse</a>. Rigorous surveys that draw from disciplines like psychology, economics, and criminology are needed to assess whether the attitudes, intentions and behaviour of potential buyers and ivory investors are changing.</p></li>
<li><p>In African range states, where ivory is sourced, robust monitoring, research, and analyses are needed to understand whether changes in the demand market are ultimately leading to decreased poaching levels, and lower poaching effort.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>By setting in place mechanisms to track these variables, the conservation community can track the success of this strategy. If the current push for a stricter ban fails, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ban-on-ivory-sales-has-been-an-abject-failure-a-rethink-is-needed-65665">as some scholars predict</a> a system is needed to recognise this sooner rather than later, so that alternative strategies can be pursued. At the same time, if the closure of domestic markets succeeds in reducing the price of ivory and poaching – the pro-use nations and NGOs need to accept this. </p>
<p>Critically, even if a tighter ban resolves the poaching crisis - this is only one challenge facing elephants. Elephants require habitat to survive. The ivory trade is one important source of revenue in countries like Namibia to support elephant and habitat conservation. If this option disappears, and with increasing pressure on trophy hunting and the revenue it generates, alternative finance mechanisms urgently need to be sought.</p>
<p>Non-consumptive tourism is often touted, but tourism is a volatile market and can probably only sustainably support a fraction of Africa’s elephant populations. Novel finance mechanisms must be developed to ensure that community attitudes towards elephants and conservation do not worsen and that habitats for elephants are not transformed to agriculture and other non-conservation land-uses. </p>
<p>Ultimately, holistic, nuanced conservation strategies that are based on evidence and that are sustainable are required if African elephants are to be conserved for future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duan Biggs receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Ivory was a major talking point at the CITES CoP17 conference.Many feel the ban on trade doesn’t work while others believe the ban is the only way to save the iconic species.Duan Biggs, Senior Research Fellow Social-Ecological Systems & Resilience, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/658482016-09-22T17:11:40Z2016-09-22T17:11:40ZWhy military and market responses are no way to save species from extinction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138793/original/image-20160922-22527-1rd8dop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Markets and militarisation as responses to wildlife threats are dangerous because they often fail.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The arrival of climate change brings with it large-scale <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/impacts/habitat_loss/">habitat loss</a> and unprecedented <a href="http://www.iucnredlist.org/">species extinctions</a>. The booming black and grey markets in already-threatened animals, including the <a href="http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/157301/25542141/1413203999027/W-TRAPS-Elephant-Rhino-report.pdf">rhino</a>, <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/2354/">elephant</a>, and <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/1160317-pangolins-united-states-endangered-species-act/">pangolin</a>, are worsening matters. </p>
<p>Responding to the threats, the world relies on the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, better known as <a href="https://cites.org/cop17">CITES</a>. Based on an agreement between 182 countries, CITES’ <a href="https://www.cites.org/eng/disc/what.php">aim</a> is to: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>ensure that international trade in specimens of wild animals and plants does not threaten their survival.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At CITES COP17, which will meet in South Africa, delegates are likely to retain bans on cross-border trade in rhino horn and elephant ivory. But CITES faces requests by South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe to <a href="http://www.chronicle.co.zw/zimbabwe-sadc-brace-for-tough-cites-negotiations/">allow</a> elephant ivory trade. Lifting that ban is <a href="http://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africannews/2016/09/21/botswana-breaks-ranks-with-neighbours-on-ivory-trade-ahead-of-un-meeting">opposed</a> by Botswana, Kenya and Tanzania. There is an even more controversial <a href="https://cites.org/eng/cop/17/prop/index.php">proposal</a> by Swaziland’s King Mswati to sell his feudal monarchy’s rhino horn stock.</p>
<p>A second danger to CITES’ integrity and its ability to protect wildlife is the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00045608.2014.912545">militarisation of conservation</a> through an anti-poaching arms race.</p>
<p>Markets and militarisation as responses to wildlife threats are dangerous. This is because they often fail. In addition, they rarely lead to alliances with the forces in society - especially neighbours of conservation sites - who are vital to defending threatened species. </p>
<h2>Militarisation is not the answer</h2>
<p>In the pursuit of conservation, southern Africa is witnessing new platoons of <a href="http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14227:sandf-deploys-in-kruger-national-park&catid=87:border-security&Itemid=188">soldiers</a> and <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2013/05/20/rhino-rangers-up-their-game">paramilitary-trained rangers</a>, with <a href="https://www.sanparks.org/about/news/?id=55388">military leaders</a> heading anti-poaching efforts. New technologies including <a href="http://insideunmannedsystems.com/hunter-becomes-hunted-drone-wildlife-monitoring/">drones</a> and <a href="https://www.sanparks.org/about/news/?id=55378">military-grade helicopters</a> along with <a href="https://www.sanparks.org/about/news/?id=56814">new partnerships with military firms</a> are all entering the region’s parklands, ostensibly to save them. </p>
<p>There is little public discussion about the merits of militarisation within CITES or mainstream conservation. This is despite the fact that NGOs such as <a href="http://www.conservation.org/Pages/default.aspx">Conservation International</a>, the <a href="http://www.nature.org/">Nature Conservancy</a> and <a href="http://www.worldwildlife.org/">World Wildlife Fund</a> were <a href="http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/EP176A.pdf">exposed</a> by WorldWatch researcher Mac Chapin a dozen years ago for disastrous adventures in military conservation. These included what he described as</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a disturbing neglect of the indigenous peoples whose land they are in business to protect.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Though many poachers are indeed armed, dangerous and participants in global organised crime, we disagree that more firepower is needed to stop commercial poaching. Green militarisation is a short-sighted response with severe long-term implications.</p>
<p>In recent years several hundred suspected poaches have been killed <a href="http://opais.sapo.mz/index.php/sociedade/45-sociedade/24255-289-mocambicanos-mortos-e-300-detidos-por-caca-furtiva-em-africa.html">in South Africa</a> and <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2016-03-16-botswanas-shoot-to-kill-policy-against-suspected-poachers">dozens in Botswana</a>. Many of these deaths result from controversial shoot-on-sight policies and practices (whether official or unofficial), where suspected poachers are killed without the opportunity to surrender.</p>
<p>This not only violates human rights but <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00045608.2014.912545">generates hostility to conservation</a> in economically-marginalised border communities. These are the very areas from which conservation needs local ownership if it is to be effective.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138811/original/image-20160922-22514-1gfhwxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Killing poachers not only violates human rights but generates hostility to conservation in economically-marginalised border communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David W Cerny/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Worse, green militarisation has opened the doors of conservation to private defence corporations. The most caricatured must be Ivor Ichikovitz’s <a href="http://www.paramountgroup.com/">Paramount Group</a>, thanks in part to his <a href="http://www.janes.com/article/43211/poachers-beware-parabot-is-after-you-aad141">celebrated</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJji0kzrDfw">Mbombe Parabot</a>, the CGI African “superhero” cyborg-robot.</p>
<p>These firms seek to create new markets for their hardware and services, markets they actively work to enlarge by exploiting conservation to showcase their hardware at <a href="http://www.paramountgroup.com/media-centre/news/parabot-in-jordan-to-celebrate-special-forces-protecting-our-world/">military tradeshows</a>.</p>
<p>This also amounts to a perverse form of “greenwashing”. As the firms bedazzle us with their well-advertised commitment to environmental protection, we are left blind to the destruction they leave in their wake in conflict zones around the world. </p>
<h2>Putting a price on conservation</h2>
<p>Likewise, the ideology known as the <a href="http://www.foei.org/resources/publications/publications-by-subject/forests-and-biodiversity-publications/financialization-of-nature">financialisation of nature</a> is based on the view that a market problem, like the threat of extinction posed by poachers, can be treated best with a market solution. Trade in wildlife is especially <a href="http://thestudyofvalue.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/WP5-Nadal-and-Aguayo-Leonardos-Sailors-2014.pdf">vulnerable</a> to this logic.</p>
<p>Swaziland’s proposed international rhino horn marketing strategy is still firmly <a href="http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2016/09/20/calls-king-swaziland-withdraw-trade-rhino-horn/">opposed</a> by leading environmental experts. South Africa still ostensibly supports the ban. But it is under pressure from rhino-horn factory-farming ranchers like <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/kwazulu-natal/meet-the-worlds-largest-rhino-breeder-2064943">John Hume</a> who owns 1400 rhino. This is more than Kenya’s entire rhino population. If Swaziland is allowed an exemption, Hume and other rhino breeders are likely to move animals across the border for horn harvesting and lucrative sales.</p>
<p>Neither green militarisation nor legalisation of cross-border trade in rhino horn and ivory are just or sustainable responses to wildlife loss. We must do better than this. And we can in several ways.</p>
<h2>Historic moment to rethink conservation</h2>
<p>The only surefire strategy to stop commercial poaching is drastically reducing demand. Wildlife <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/17/rhino-horn-considered-cure-all-and-aphrodesiac-now/">fetches</a> staggering prices. A kilogram of rhino horn, for example, fetches US$60,000 – more than gold, diamonds and cocaine. Until buyers lose interest or shift to a new fad (as <a href="http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/26/jews-feathers-fashion-oped-cx_rl_1127laneri.html">happened</a> a century ago to ostrich feathers), there will never be a shortage of people willing to procure wildlife, even risking their lives to do so. </p>
<p>CITES, to its credit, has done a great deal to prioritise demand reduction especially in Asia, where the largest markets exist. And to their credit, South African and Namibian authorities are finally naming and shaming smugglers they catch. Even proponents of green militarisation often agree that reducing demand is the single most important response. But it is vital to do so with cultural sensitivity to avoid the appearance of yet another western imposition.</p>
<p>Just as necessary is the need to address commercial poaching through more productive, respectful relations with communities surrounding parks. After all, these are the very communities that can help make conservation efforts successful over the long haul. </p>
<p>We have an historic opportunity to rethink conservation. There is an opportunity to make it less exploitative and more inclusive of the needs and perspectives of communities that often suffered injustice when parks were carved from indigenous lands. </p>
<p>More broadly, because <a href="http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/17836/1/EoD_HD059_Jun2013_Poverty_Poaching.pdf">poverty is routinely a driver of poaching on the supply side</a>, we are reminded once more of the need to address global inequality.</p>
<p>There are precedents. Successful campaigning by local social movements and their global allies - including sanctions against corporations profiteering from racism - brought an end to apartheid 25 years ago. A decade ago, non-violent protests by civil society <a href="http://quod.lib.umich.edu/p/passages/4761530.0010.011/--tac-in-the-history-of-rights-based-patient-driven-hivaids?rgn=main;view=fulltext">ended</a> the patent control by big pharmaceutical companies over AIDS medicines, resulting in a subsequent rise in life expectancy from 52 to 62 in South Africa alone. </p>
<p>Saving the rhino and elephant could be just as feasible, if popular movements are built - movements that avoid militarised and market paths.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Libby Lunstrum receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Bond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Military responses to combat poaching are a problem. They marginalise communities where poachers come from and can have longer term implications.Libby Lunstrum, Associate Professor of Geography, York University, CanadaPatrick Bond, Professor of Political Economy, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/656652016-09-22T17:11:36Z2016-09-22T17:11:36ZThe ban on ivory sales has been an abject failure. A rethink is needed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138765/original/image-20160922-22544-1g01agz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The fate of elephants ultimately lies in the hands of humans and a continued ban will not solve the poaching problem.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The issue of trade in African elephant ivory will dominate the 2016 <a href="https://cites.org/eng/cop/index.php">CITES Conference of the Parties</a> meeting. Debate will revolve around maintaining or lifting the ban on trade, but with little chance of addressing the overarching human element. For example, what impact has the trade ban had on local communities? And what is the relationship between their livelihoods and elephant protection and poaching?</p>
<p>There has been vocal support for maintaining a ban on the trade in ivory. But <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2016.1201378">the central arguments</a> for a continuation of the ban fail to grasp the mismatch between a CITES trade ban and Africa’s de facto realities. Instead, overly simplistic views are aired that are blind to grass root complexities and nuances. </p>
<p>This narrow lens leads to the prescription of a “one size fits all” solution under which both communities, and elephants, ultimately suffer. Elephants are treated as a global commons. In fact their fate ultimately lies in the hands of humans which is why a continued ban, with increased enforcement accompanied by demand reduction, will not solve the poaching problem. </p>
<p>Indeed, regaining control of elephant ivory as a resource is the core problem around which the trade debate centres. It also concerns itself with allocation of power and control of resources among governments, communities and institutions.</p>
<p>Opponents of a legal trade in elephant ivory give the impression that there is a deep crisis: elephants are headed for extinction. Yet the status of elephants varies greatly across and within Africa. The greatest losses have occurred in central and west Africa, the continent’s two most politically <a href="http://www.elephantdatabase.org/preview_report/2013_africa_final/2013/Africa">unstable regions</a>.</p>
<p>Contrast this with southern Africa, which has experienced a steady rise in elephant populations and is now home to <a href="http://www.elephantdatabase.org/preview_report/2013_africa_final/2013/Africa">two-thirds of Africa’s elephants</a>.
There is a problem, but it’s not continent-wide problem. The global population of the African elephant is not in immediate danger of extinction.</p>
<h2>A legal ivory trade</h2>
<p>A major flaw in the argument against those wanting to lift the ban is that legalising the sale of ivory may fail to reduce its price. But the pro-trade southern Africa countries are not seeking to drive prices downward. Why would they want to reduce the income from a product over which they have a competitive advantage?</p>
<p>Southern African countries’ aim is to realise the maximum income that the market will pay in a trading system based on <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/prop/060216/E-CoP17-Prop-15.pdf">regular sales</a>. They want to gain control of the supply of ivory to a market that has been seized by illegal traders. Money from the legal sale of ivory would provide income to rural peoples who live with elephants – establishing the incentives for <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/point_the_case_for_a_legal_ivory_trade_it_could_help_stop_the_slaughter/2814/">their conservation</a>. </p>
<p>The ultimate goal of southern African countries is the transition from the present land-use system to a higher-valued one where rural people derive a better living from alternative options. This requires an enabling framework that does not include ivory trade bans or donor-dependent conservation. One example is Namibia’s Conservancy Programme, generally regarded as the <a href="ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/aj114e/aj114e10.pdf">most successful</a> in southern Africa.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138766/original/image-20160922-22533-1q9f2y2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Money from the legal sale of ivory would provide income to rural peoples who live with elephants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Southern Africa needs higher-valued land uses to survive an impending <a href="http://www.unocha.org/el-nino-southern-africa">environmental crisis</a>. The lives of millions of people are at risk through climate change. By demanding the inception of a legal ivory trade at CITES, southern African nations are seeking no more than that ivory sales assist in alleviating this crisis. Its sheer magnitude makes CITES’ preoccupation with listing species on Appendices irrelevant. It is a case of Nero fiddling while Rome burns.</p>
<p>Responsible global citizens should be doing everything in their power to facilitate a legal ivory trade that will mitigate human misery, realise the true potential of elephants and ultimately result in their long-term conservation. The likely annual proceeds from ivory for the anti-ban nations are of the order of US$1.5 billion. </p>
<p>This is calculated on the basis of around 300,000 elephants producing 500kg of ivory per 1,000 elephants at a value <a href="https://www.cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/com/sc/62/E62-46-04-A.pdf">of US$1,000/kg</a>. Existing rural community institutions are in place to ensure that funds are returned to <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=2840580">local people</a>. </p>
<h2>Demand is in flux, prices sensitive</h2>
<p>Another fallacious argument is that the market for ivory in Asia – particularly China – is insatiable due to growing affluence. This was purportedly ignited by a large “one-off” ivory sale <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2016.1201378">conducted by CITES in 2008</a>. This demand, the argument goes, has the potential to wipe out African elephant populations by 2020.</p>
<p>This is just drama. Demand is in flux and is sensitive to prices. And the role of affluence must be questioned since incomes in Asian consumer countries have been increasing since well <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.%20com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp">before 2000</a>. It’s not possible to reconcile the assertion that affluence is synonymous with insatiable demand.</p>
<p>For many, the spectre of laundering in sufficient quantity to pose a significant threat is reason enough not to pursue legal trade and, indeed, to shut down all trade – even in extinct, look-alike species. In excess of 2400 metric tons of raw ivory left Africa between 2002 – 2014 and, of this, China’s 5-6 tonnes/year is a minor amount. Illegal traders do not need a legal market to launder ivory: their established trade conduits continue to work, as always.</p>
<h2>Abject failure</h2>
<p>Everyone agrees that the illegal ivory trade continues despite the international trade ban. It has been an abject failure. CITES has had 27 years to evaluate the experiment and, far from being part of the solution to illegal elephant killing in Africa, the ban must be seen as part of the problem.</p>
<p>Some posit that a legal trade in ivory cannot work with the <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25103555">corruption in Africa</a>. But they fail to consider that the ban has created fertile conditions for corruption. Indeed, officials and governments across the continent who declared the trade of ivory illegal have themselves been engaged in it. It made smuggling easy, according to popular <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/laureates/2001/naipaul-bio.html">writer V. S. Naipaul</a>.</p>
<p>As he has done before, Naipaul touches a nerve. Africa today has no need for yet another spurious declaration. Rather, it needs support for the creation of a robust management and marketing system for one of its most valuable products.</p>
<p><em>Kirsten Conrad and Rowan Martin featured as co-authors on this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marshall Murphree does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ivory trade is a very contentious issue and will be debated at CITES. It will revolve around maintaining or lifting the ban on trade. But the human element is likely to be ignored.Marshall Murphree, Professor Emeritus and Director of the Centre of Applied Social Sciences, University of ZimbabweLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655102016-09-18T16:43:32Z2016-09-18T16:43:32ZExplainer: what is CITES and why should we care?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138038/original/image-20160916-6342-uiilmi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">CITES has become the premier multilateral arrangement to tackle illegal wildlife trafficking.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ross Harvey</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora <a href="http://cites.org/">(CITES)</a> is an international regulatory treaty between 182 member states. It was formed in 1973 and regulates the international trade in over 35,000 wild species of plants and animals.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cites.org/cop17">17th Conference</a> of the Parties to CITES (CoP17) will be hosted by South Africa running from 24 September to 5 October.</p>
<p>The focus of the convention is not solely on the protection of species. It also promotes controlled trade that is not detrimental to the sustainability of wild species. It has become the best-known conservation convention in the world.</p>
<p>Illegal wildlife trafficking is a major global problem and CITES is the premier multilateral arrangement to address the problem. The upcoming conference is therefore crucial for advancing human and environmental welfare. </p>
<h2>The nature and size of the problem</h2>
<p>A recent United Nations <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/World_Wildlife_Crime_Report_2016_final.pdf">report</a> states that the trafficking of wildlife is both a specialised area of organized crime and a significant threat to many plant and animal species. </p>
<p>For instance, there has been an alarming <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/World_Wildlife_Crime_Report_2016_final.pdf">85% increase</a> in the number of African rhinos poached since 2009. There are <a href="https://www.savetherhino.org/rhino_info/rhino_population_figures">only</a> about 20,000 white rhinos left, and fewer than 6,000 black rhinos. </p>
<p>And the latest <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/2354">Great Elephant Census</a> reveals that there are only about 375,000 savannah elephants remaining in Africa. Populations are currently shrinking by 8% per across the continent, primarily due to poaching. </p>
<p>Katarzyna Nowak, research associate in Zoology and Entomology at the University of the Free State, <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/policy-insights/1092-cites-alone-cannot-combat-illegal-wildlife-trade/file">notes</a> that illegal wildlife trade deprives nations of their biodiversity, income opportunities and natural heritage and capital. </p>
<p>A 2015 paper in an Oxford journal <a href="http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/07/25/biosci.biw092">states</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Most mammalian megafauna face dramatic range contractions and population declines… 60% of the world’s largest herbivores are classified as threatened with extinction on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In addition to poaching and trafficking, <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/4/e1400103">habitat contraction and fragmentation</a> threaten species survival. Livestock encroachment into wildlife habitats, land-use change and armed conflict combine to account for contraction. Fragmentation also threatens large migratory species, as smaller pockets of protected areas often cannot support sustainable populations of large herbivores and carnivores. </p>
<p>CITES can therefore only deal with one dimension of a much broader problem. But the more effective it becomes at dealing with trafficking, the more traction is likely to be gained in tackling the others.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138078/original/image-20160916-10847-1p8bv6l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Range contractions overtime for three iconic species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/4/e1400103.full">G Kerley Science Advances</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does CITES work?</h2>
<p>The convention works primarily through a system of classification and licensing. Wild species are categorised in Appendices I to III. This often reflects species’ threat status on the <a href="http://www.iucnredlist.org">Red List of the IUCN</a>, the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species first created in 1964. </p>
<p>Appendix I prohibits trade in species classified as highly endangered. Appendix II allows trade under very specific conditions. This requires exporting countries obtain a permit, but not the importing country. Appendix III species require only a certificate of origin to be traded. </p>
<p>National CITES management authorities may issue permits once scientific authorities show <a href="https://cites.org/eng/prog/ndf/index.php">non-detriment findings</a>. In other words, scientific evidence must demonstrate that species sustainability will not be adversely affected by trade. Where data is lacking, the precautionary principle applies.</p>
<p>For instance, elephants are protected under Appendix I and II because of the geographically differentiated threats facing different populations. Either way, if countries cannot demonstrate that the trade in ivory will not result in species decline, they will not be allowed to trade. </p>
<p>Part of the difficulty of allowing the occasional sale of ivory is that sufficient, reliable data on how markets may respond is not available. A vast volume of ivory is sold illegally, and so scientists and statisticians <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076539">cannot get good data</a> to establish whether one-off sales of ivory exacerbate demand for ivory, or what kind of impact sales may have on speculative activity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=670&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=670&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=670&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138079/original/image-20160916-10813-11rlxjn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proximate threats faced by herbivores globally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/4/e1400103.full">Science Advances</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>CITES challenges</h2>
<p>Estimates from <a href="https://cites.org/eng/prog/etis/index.php">seizure data</a> to make inferences about market dynamics is risky. The precautionary principle suggests that no trade in ivory should be allowed, given the <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/2354.pdf">current rates of elephant slaughter</a> across central and east Africa, even though some southern populations are apparently not at risk of decline.</p>
<p>In technical terms, there is an added difficulty of what is called the split-listing problem. Here, some elephants are listed on Appendix II - now the largest volume - and all others are listed on Appendix I. Appendix II-listed elephants were subjected to a moratorium on future trade after the 2008 one-off sale. This is due to expire in 2017, and South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe have submitted <a href="https://cites.org/sites/default/files/eng/cop/17/WorkingDocs/E-CoP17-84-03.pdf">a proposal</a> to be allowed to sell their naturally accruing ivory again. </p>
<p>Another difficulty with migratory species is establishing which member state the elephants actually belong to. If an elephant wakes up in Zimbabwe and goes to sleep in Botswana, whose elephant is she? The upcoming conference will have to deal with these kinds of questions.</p>
<p>The convention also requires that traded species be clearly marked and have legitimate certificates of origin. Seizures of specimens are not allowed when permits are invalid, fraudulent or dubious. Unfortunately, trafficking syndicates are particularly adept at circumventing these measures by forging permits or laundering wild-caught species through captive-breeding facilities.</p>
<p>The secretariat may recommend trade suspension where countries fail to comply with CITES provisions. <a href="https://cites.org/eng/resources/ref/suspend.php">Trade suspensions</a> were handed to 27 countries at the recent 66th meeting of the CITES standing committee, 16 of them in Africa. For example, countries that failed to submit <a href="https://cites.org/eng/news/pr/african_elephants_still_in_decline_due_to_high_levels_of_poaching_03032016">National Ivory Action Plans</a> were issued with suspensions.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.unep-wcmc.org/">The World Conservation Monitoring Centre</a>, a specialist arm of the UN Environment Programme, manages the CITES trade database and evaluates whether parties are effective at enforcing recommended suspensions.</p>
<h2>Will CITES succeed at reducing trafficking?</h2>
<p>The convention faces a tremendously difficult task. It was initially designed to regulate trade, not to defeat illegal wildlife trafficking. The convention in itself is relatively powerless to defeat powerful, well-organised transnational crime syndicates. But working in collaboration with other multilateral agencies it can ensure greater success in regulating trade in species as well as protecting irreplaceable biodiversity. </p>
<p>Many countries do not have the capacity to adapt their national laws to enforce CITES provisions and recommendations. For instance, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is racked by internal armed conflict and therefore lacks the capacity to do so. But enforcement is crucial to ensuring the convention’s future efficacy. </p>
<p>Countries with capacity should help those without. Harmonisation of legislation, and equally strong penalties between countries, is also a prerequisite for success. </p>
<p>The more countries start to see that wildlife conservation is not the preserve of a wealthy few or some random single-issue lobby group, but rather integral to the survival of humanity, the more likely CITES is to gain real policy efficacy.</p>
<h2>Why should you care?</h2>
<p>CITES is a crucial instrument for ensuring that species are not traded in a way that threatens their survival. If, for instance, the world wants to secure a future with elephants, member states <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/occasional-papers/preserving-the-african-elephant-for-future-generations">would do well</a> to shut down all domestic ivory trade, and to put all stockpiles beyond commercial use. The <a href="http://www.elephantprotectioninitiative.org">Elephant Protection Initiative</a>, for instance, calls on members to do this. It provides an excellent example of states adopting policies that complement CITES regulations. </p>
<p>Elephants and other charismatic species are important to conserve not just because they have inherent value, but also because they play a key role in ensuring the ecological integrity of their migratory habitats. </p>
<p>These habitats – wilderness landscapes - not only preserve wildlife species, but also operate as invaluable carbon sinks. This shows us that properly regulating trade in wild fauna and flora is one crucial component of addressing other major challenges like climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Harvey works for the Governance of Africa's Resources Programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs. The programme is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The programme is also currently running a research project on elephant conservation and ivory consumption that is funded by Stop Ivory. </span></em></p>The focus of CITES is not solely on the protection of species. It also promotes controlled trade that is not detrimental to the sustainability of wild species.Ross Harvey, Senior Researcher in Natural Resource Governance (Africa), South African Institute of International AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/633572016-08-04T19:39:18Z2016-08-04T19:39:18ZVietnamese carvers move centre stage as China cracks down on illegal ivory sales<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132968/original/image-20160803-12211-2ihfff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An ivory comb. Most sales from Vietnam to China involve carved ivory</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CrazyHouseCapers/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vietnam, already a major source of demand for illegally poached rhino horn, is now fast becoming a major market for illegal ivory. The amount of ivory on sale in Vietnam has increased by more than 600% in the past eight years, according to a new <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2016_VietnamReportFINAL_0.pdf">report</a> by leading ivory trade researchers Lucy Vigne and Esmond Martin. </p>
<p>Vietnam is a member of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES), which bans the international trade in ivory. But there are loopholes in its domestic laws that allow the sale of ivory obtained before laws banning its trade were introduced in 1992. </p>
<p>The researchers found 242 retail outlets with 16,099 pieces of ivory openly displayed for sale in Ho Chi Minh City and Ban Ma Thuot, and in villages in the north near the Chinese border. This ivory is largely made up of small carvings and other pieces of worked ivory. Raw ivory does not appear to be part of the retail trade in ivory that feeds demand in China.</p>
<p>There is one key reason for Vietnam’s increase in trade – China’s crackdown on illegal ivory sales and promises to reduce the domestic trade in ivory. Through evidence gathered and testimony from officials, carvers and wildlife trade investigators, the researchers concluded that Vietnam has become <em>the</em> main route for the smuggling of ivory and other wildlife products into China. </p>
<p>Vietnam’s new role has also been bolstered by a lack of cooperation between law enforcement agencies, a poorly monitored 700km land border between Vietnam and China and a booming online trade in illegal wildlife products. </p>
<h2>China’s crackdown</h2>
<p>China has recently been making an effort to be seen to be combating the illegal ivory trade. This follows huge international criticism of skyrocketing Chinese demand for ivory since the turn of the millennium. The demand has decimated African elephant populations, with an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 elephants killed illegally <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52016SC0038">every year</a>.</p>
<p>The country has therefore taken measures to try discourage and punish people smuggling tusks or worked ivory coming from Africa. </p>
<p>Early last year <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/world/asia/china-bans-import-of-ivory-carvings-for-one-year.html?_r=0">China announced</a> a 12-month ban on imports of carved ivory and tusks. It also banned the import of ivory in the form of hunting trophies. This was the only legal way to import unworked ivory post-1989, the year in which CITES voted to ban international trade in ivory by member states. The moratoriums on carved ivory and trophy imports was later extended to 2020.</p>
<p>China also crushed 660kg of seized ivory <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/06/china-crush-ivory-elephant-poaching">last year</a>. And during a visit to the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="http://www.eturbonews.com/46018/china-good-friend-africa-ready-support-elephant-conservation">pledged</a> US$10 million to help fight poaching. During President Xi Jinping’s official visit to the US in September, he and President Barack Obama made a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/fact-sheet-president-xi-jinpings-state-visit-united-states">joint pledge</a> to combat the ivory trade.</p>
<p>As a result of China’s tougher stance, which has also included tighter surveillance regimes at major ports and airports, Vietnam’s trade has increased. Ivory is smuggled into the country via a variety of routes. </p>
<p>It arrives in the form of small tusks weighing 1kg to 3kg and small pieces of ivory cut from tusks. Prices range from $889 to $1,334 per kilogram.</p>
<p>The going rate for raw ivory in China is more than $1,000. But the majority of sales in China are not of raw ivory. Most sales involve carved ivory. The researchers established through first-hand research in Vietnam that, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[o]f all the ivory industries in Asia, Vietnamese carvers have multiplied in number and increased their production of illegal ivory items the most rapidly since 2008. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>These items are then carried by buyers whose bags are rarely checked when crossing between Vietnam and China.</p>
<h2>Falling prices</h2>
<p>These developments come at a time of falling market prices for ivory. According to the <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/about-ste/press-media/?detail=sharp-fall-in-the-prices-of-elephant-tusks-in-china">researchers</a>, by the end of 2015 the market price for ivory was declining. In China it had dropped from $2,100 to $1,200 per kilogram. </p>
<p>But the lower price has not been sufficient to deter poachers, with the majority of the ivory taken from West, East and Central Africa. The incentive to engage in poaching remains high and poachers will still do it if the middlemen and organisers of illicit trade networks <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/about-ste/press-media/?detail=sharp-fall-in-the-prices-of-elephant-tusks-in-china">still want</a> to buy ivory. </p>
<p>The falling prices could be the result of Chinese government policy. This calls for returning Chinese tourists or workers from neighbouring countries or Africa not to bring home ivory. But it could also be a result of China’s economic downturn, the moratorium on imports of trophy ivory and attempts to enforce anti-smuggling measures more strenuously. </p>
<h2><strong>More to be done</strong></h2>
<p>Conservationists in Africa have welcomed China’s tighter controls, but say that far more needs to be done to stop the slaughter of elephants. </p>
<p>Iain Douglas-Hamilton, founder of <a href="http://savetheelephants.org/">Save the Elephants</a>, told me that he didn’t put any great faith in China’s 12-month ban on imports of carved ivory and tusks as a measure on its own. It does not affect the legal domestic trade or the sale of ivory from government stockpiles. It also excludes Hong Kong, with its extensive legal and illegal trade. But he hoped it was a signal that China was moving towards more viable tightening of controls. </p>
<p>There is also no convincing evidence yet that demand reduction campaigns are seriously affecting buyers in China, and certainly not those who may buy ivory as an investment. </p>
<p>Over the centuries since ivory became a highly prized luxury commodity the trade has evolved and coped with changing centres of demand and developed new routes. That is likely to be the case in the coming years, too. The new routes through Vietnam are ensuring that the market for ivory remains supplied. </p>
<p>There are no simple and easy answers to how to reduce the trade and stop poaching. Increased militarisation of anti-poaching efforts is not having a major effect on cutting the rate of illegal killing and the 27-year-old international ivory trade ban has not stopped the continuation of the commerce in raw tusks and the worked ivory trade. </p>
<p>When CITES member states meet in Johannesburg, South Africa, in September they will argue over whether the ban should be made permanent or whether southern African states should be allowed to periodically sell ivory stocks. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, their deliberations are unlikely to have any great effect on poaching in the elephant range states in Africa or on the highly organised criminal networks that take the poached tusks from Africa to markets in East Asia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Somerville does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The amount of ivory on sale in Vietnam has increased by more than 600% in the past eight years. As China has taken a tougher stance on the ivory trade, sales in Vietnam have increased.Keith Somerville, Visiting Professor, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.