tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/fianna-fail-10572/articlesFianna Fail – The Conversation2020-02-10T14:42:09Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1313242020-02-10T14:42:09Z2020-02-10T14:42:09ZIrish election: Sinn Féin’s surge signals a precarious path ahead<p>Sinn Féin’s surge in popularity is the major story of the 2020 Irish general election. The left-wing, nationalist party won a mere 9.5% of the vote in 2019 <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/#/local">local elections</a> and, simultaneously, lost two of its three European Parliament seats. Yet in the February 8 general election Sinn Féin has won almost a quarter of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51432660">first preference votes</a> (24.5%), ahead of leading rivals Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and has emerged as a viable governing party. </p>
<p>Even Leo Varadkar, the outgoing Taoiseach or prime minister who leads Fine Gael, failed to top the poll <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-west">in his constituency</a>. He received 4,000 fewer first-preference votes than the Sinn Féin candidate. Terms such as historic, unprecedented and seismic are being used to describe the result. </p>
<p>Historically, Ireland’s party system has been the “odd man out” in Western Europe. Dominated by two ideologically similar parties of the <a href="http://www.tara.tcd.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/80583/Party%20Competition%20in%20Ireland_June19.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">centre right</a>, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the country has, remarkably, never had a majority left-wing government. The centre left of the political spectrum was occupied by a small Labour Party, while Sinn Féin’s focus on the issue of a united Ireland and its associations with violence in Northern Ireland meant it failed to achieve representation in the Irish parliament between 1961 and 1997. </p>
<p>Election 2020 appears to have brought about significant change to this traditional arrangement. Under Ireland’s proportional <a href="https://www.thejournal.ie/how-does-prstv-work-2619448-Feb2016/">single transferable vote electoral system</a>, Sinn Féin has so far won the first seat in 24 of the country’s 39 multi-member districts.</p>
<h2>An upswing in Sinn Féin’s fortunes</h2>
<p>The election results were largely unexpected, not least by Sinn Féin itself, which appears to have mismanaged its campaign by running only one candidate in <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/waterford-results-sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-david-cullinane-takes-first-seat-1.4165589">constituencies</a> where it could have easily elected two MPs (TDs) under the Irish electoral system. Although, as recently as November, the party was running at just 11% cent in some <a href="https://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/SBP-November-2019-Poll-Report.pdf">opinion polls</a>, so this caution was not unwarranted. </p>
<p>This volatility in Sinn Féin’s electoral support also suggests that talk of permanent and irreversible change to the Irish party system may be a little premature. It will take several more elections to confirm if these new Sinn Féin voters are loyal to the party. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/detailed-election-2020-exit-poll-results-how-voters-answered-15-questions-1.4167016">exit poll</a> published on the night of the election indicated that the housing crisis and the state of the health system were the two main issues for voters, with almost 60% of the electorate listing one or other of these as the most important factor in their voting decision. Brexit, immigration, taxation and crime barely featured in voters’ decision calculus. </p>
<p>Fine Gael did not get a bounce from its successful representation of the country in the Brexit negotiations, with only 1% of voters listing this as the most important factor when it came to casting their ballot. Nor was Fine Gael rewarded for its management of the economy through the austerity years. Over the course of its nine year tenure in office, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/unemployment-rate">unemployment</a> was reduced from over 15% to under 5% and Ireland experienced the highest <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115&plugin=1">GDP growth rates</a> of any EU member state. </p>
<p>But this turnaround in economic fortunes was not spread evenly across society. According to the exit poll, 77% of Sinn Féin voters felt that they hadn’t personally benefited from the improvement in the economy in recent years. The cost of living, particularly housing, and a two-tier health system with the <a href="https://healthpowerhouse.com/media/EHCI-2018/EHCI-2018-report.pdf">longest waiting lists</a> in Europe were foremost in voters’ minds. </p>
<p>Sinn Féin also ran a highly professional and cohesive campaign with a message that was laser-focused on change. The <a href="https://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2020/SF_GE2020_Manifesto.pdf">party’s manifesto</a> promised to increase public spending by €22 billion (£18.6 billion) over five years of government, while simultaneously cutting income and property taxes for large cohorts of the population. This message particularly resonated with the young, as almost a <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114154-exit-poll-shows-the-last-gasp-of-the-pensioners/">third of 18 to 24-year-olds</a> gave their first preference to the party compared with only 12% of those over 65. </p>
<p>Ultimately, Fine Gael, after two terms in office, struggled to convince voters it could resolve the housing and health crisis. Meanwhile, many have not forgiven Fianna Fáil for its mismanagement of the country in the years leading up to the economic crash. </p>
<h2>Government formation</h2>
<p>With three relatively equal-sized parties in contention, some dual combination of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin is mathematically the most realistic coalition outcome. But historic enmities and campaign rhetoric now make government formation far from straightforward. Over the course of the campaign, both <a href="https://www.independent.ie/incoming/micheal-martin-rules-out-possibility-of-sinn-fein-fianna-fail-government-after-election-38918727.html">Fianna Fáil</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-51438310/leo-varadkar-my-position-on-sinn-fin-hasn-t-changed">Fine Gael</a> explicitly ruled out governing with Sinn Féin, and Fianna Fáil also ruled out a “grand coalition” with Fine Gael. </p>
<p>As vote counting continued across Ireland, Sinn Féin President Mary-Lou McDonald <a href="https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/mary-lou-mcdonald-hopes-to-lead-left-wing-government-without-fine-gael-and-fianna-fail-38939887.html">said she wanted</a> to try and forge a left-wing governing coalition.</p>
<p>A second election is a real possibility, but in the short term this will likely only benefit Sinn Féin, which won’t make the mistake of running too few candidates a second time. A third option is a Fianna Fáil minority government, with Fine Gael returning the favour of the past four years by giving support in a confidence and supply arrangement. But given the likely final seat distribution it could be a very precarious arrangement, unless the Greens or Labour are also brought on board, which seems unlikely. All is to play for in the coming weeks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gail McElroy has received funding in the past from the Irish Research Council, the European Commission (H2020 framework programme) and the European Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Why left-wing nationalist party Sinn Féin topped the popular vote in the Irish election.Gail McElroy, Professor in Political Science, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1169242019-05-12T10:39:41Z2019-05-12T10:39:41ZFactionalism and corruption could kill the ANC – unless it kills both first<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273937/original/file-20190512-183089-1slo6s1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African President Cyril Ramaphosa cheers during the results announcement ceremony in Pretoria, South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Yeshiel Panchia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The African National Congress (ANC) – like most liberation movements-turned political parties – has dominated South Africa’s politics since it came to power in 1994. Having just won <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/App/dashboard.html">57.50%</a> of the national vote in the general election, it appears set to continue its dominance until the next one in 2024. </p>
<p>The ANC’s electoral fortunes have steadily declined in the last three national elections; <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27756284?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">2009 (65%)</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27756284?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">2014 (62%)</a> and <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/App/dashboard.html">2019 (57.50%)</a>. Does this suggest Nelson Mandela’s party will join the global list of dominant parties that lose power and eventually disintegrate sooner rather than later?</p>
<p>Globally, dominant parties experience moments of failure. Sometimes they completely disappear from the political scene. For example, the Swedish Social Democratic Party, considered the largest political party in Sweden from 1917 onwards, <a href="http://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-00868-7.html">and one of the most successful</a> parties in the world’s liberal democracies, has been recording electoral defeats since 2006. Another example is The Irish Fianna Fáil (The Republican Party), which was in power from 1932 in the Dáil Éireann (Assembly of Ireland). It lost heavily to the opposition in 2011. </p>
<p>Scholars have <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/why-dominant-parties-lose/2E5DEFBF4C4A44D362ADA53BDCD90885">ascribed declines like this</a> to four broad reasons: opposition coordination; institutional or electoral reforms; high level of corruption and gross abuse of office; and factional conflict within the dominant party.</p>
<p>The two the ANC should be worried about are high levels of corruption and conflicts within the party.</p>
<h2>Reasons for failure</h2>
<p><strong>A fragmented opposition:</strong> Studies <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-abstract/68/1/153/2471421?redirectedFrom=fulltext">have established</a> that this contributes to the prolonged reign of dominant parties. That’s because they are less likely to be well coordinated to win votes. They are also less adept at the art of forming governments and maintaining them than consolidated oppositions. A good example is the All Progressive Congress party in Nigeria. It toppled the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the 2015 presidential elections. But it took over six months <a href="https://theconversation.com/buharis-cabinet-solid-choices-but-too-few-women-and-too-elitist-50800">to appoint ministers</a>, and almost three years to stabilise governance.</p>
<p>Relatedly, strong charismatic leadership is needed to complement a well-coordinated opposition. This <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ending-one-party-dominance-korea-taiwan-mexico/">was a factor</a> in the decline of one-party dominance in Taiwan, Korea, and Mexico. The Ivory Coast, Kenya and Ghana are other examples of charismatic opposition party leaders defeating the incumbents in national elections.</p>
<p><strong>Institutions:</strong> There is evidence from several studies that institutions play a significant role in perpetuating single-party dominance. This may relate to the nature of the electoral system and the type of political system in place. This implies that some form of structural reforms might be required to dislodge a dominant party whose hegemony relies on the existing system. For example,
<a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ending-one-party-dominance-korea-taiwan-mexico/">a study</a> on Taiwan, Korea, and Mexico, concludes that the opposition, such as it was, would never have become a threat in any of these places had it not been for electoral reforms. </p>
<p><strong>Disenchantment:</strong> growing disenchantment with the government of a ruling party over recurring high levels of corruption represents another reason for the loss of the hegemony. The argument is that when a party stays in power for a long time without facing a credible threat of defeat, it becomes complacent and susceptible to corruption and abuse of office. This may result in the accumulation of grievances among citizens which could lead to protest votes that could eventually dislodge the dominant party. </p>
<p>Examples abound. This was the case with the Peoples Democratic Party in Nigeria (2015), the Kuomintang in Taiwan (2016), the Grand National Party /Saenuri Party in Korea (2004), and the PRI in Mexico (2000). </p>
<p><strong>Factionalism:</strong> studies confirm that internal dissent and disorder were the major reasons for the disintegration of dominant parties in the post-war era across different regions of the world. In Africa for example, these splits are often associated with unresolved leadership tussles as was the case of the Peoples Democratic Party in Nigeria. </p>
<p>Prior to the 2015 general elections, the party became enmeshed in a prolonged crisis over the rotation of the presidency between the southern and northern power blocs. The unresolved conflict led to mass defections to the newly formed All Progressive Congress. This contributed greatly to the fall of the Peoples Democratic Party <a href="https://africacheck.org/reports/has-nigerias-ruling-party-brought-power-to-the-people-we-fact-check-key-electoral-claims/">after 16 years in power</a>.</p>
<h2>How the ANC fares</h2>
<p>The first two indicators – fragmented opposition and institutions – favour the perpetuation of the ANC’s dominance. The last two – disenchantment and factionalism – threaten it. </p>
<p>The opposition Democratic Alliance (<a href="https://www.da.org.za/">DA</a>) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (<a href="http://www.effonline.org/Home">EFF</a>) remain the two <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/App/dashboard.html">front-running opposition parties</a>. But, there are still doubts about their capacity to dislodge the ANC in the near future. This is especially so given their ideological differences, which makes an alliance unworkable, although not impossible. This perhaps explains the collapse of their coalition arrangements across the country following the ANC’s losses in the 2016 local government elections. These developments indicate that the opposition is not coordinated enough to dislodge the ANC.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, given their relatively poor national coverage, limited resources and the baggage of identity politics, lessons from other countries show that a strong merger or coalitions of opposition parties may be the most feasible strategy to displace the ruling ANC. </p>
<p>Secondly, the ANC has used its majority in parliament to create (or influence) laws that limit the chances of the opposition growing, further perpetuating its dominance. And the <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">proportional representation system</a> creates room for further fragmentation of the opposition.</p>
<p>But corruption and factionalism are the two factors that threaten the ANC’s dominance and could eventually kill it – unless it kills both first. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sastatecapture.org.za">Zondo Commission of inquiry</a> into state capture is now unravelling just how deeply corruption has eaten into the fabric of the ruling party. It has had a negative impact on service delivery and undermined public trust in the ANC and government. </p>
<p>Last, President Cyril Ramaphosa has done a lot to unify the party since he became its president. This has included making questionable compromises. But how he balances his party’s interests and those of the country in the coming years will determine whether or not <a href="https://journals.co.za/content/journal/10520/EJC-e78caa3e8">the ANC implodes</a>. </p>
<p>Overall, if the president is able to keep his electoral promises the ANC would still remain the party to beat in the 2024 elections. This includes rooting out corruption, prosecuting culprits, reforming the economy to improve access, appropriating and redistributing land without hurting the economy and creating jobs. </p>
<p>But keeping these promises will depend on how the factional battles within the party play out. So far, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ramaphosas-presidency-is-drawing-voters-back-to-the-anc-new-study-115261">studies show</a> that Ramaphosa’s personality and actions have instilled some confidence and drawn voters back to the ANC. This is certainly reflected in the 2019 results. He now has a mandate to carry these forward – and with more boldness.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>For its part, the ANC leadership must start working on fully transforming the party from a liberation movement to a democratic political party to allow for open competition in leadership and electoral positions within the party. The rise of provincial chairs as power brokers in intra-party elections amount to a partial internal democratisation of ANC politics. But it has also given rise to a network for patronage which is out of sight of the centre.</p>
<p>Some argue that the ANC can govern well even <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-can-stay-a-liberation-movement-and-govern-well-76026">as a liberation movement</a>. Nevetherless, its transformation is imperative. This is because the regimental (command-and-obey) culture that drives liberation movements, fosters leadership arrogance, authoritarianism and corruption. It also stifles innovation especially from youth.</p>
<p>The ANC suffers from all these anti-progress traits and must engage them head-on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Isike receives funding from the National Research Foundation (NRF`). He is affiliated with the International Political Science Association (IPSA) where he is a Vice President, and is a current Council member of the South African Association of Political Studies (SAAPS). </span></em></p>Why do once mighty political parties sometimes collapse? Two reasons that have driven some into obscurity are corruption and conflicts within the party. The ANC suffers from both.Christopher Isike, Professor of African Politics and International Relations , University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1108502019-02-01T13:19:02Z2019-02-01T13:19:02ZIreland: Leo Varadkar’s coalition government holds remarkably stable in face of Brexit<p>On paper, Theresa May and Leo Varadkar have much in common politically. Ideologically centre-right, both the British prime minister and Irish premier (Taoiseach) head minority governments that rest on precarious confidence and supply agreements. But Varadkar is in a markedly more stable position than his British counterpart, despite the fact that his party, Fine Gael, controls less than one-third of the seats in the Irish parliament, Dáil Éireann. </p>
<p>While the two main political parties in Westminster oscillate between combat and implosion and the executive stumbles from crisis to crisis, Brexit has, improbably, led to a degree of government stability in Ireland. No one would have predicted this durability in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/political-turmoil-in-ireland-is-not-a-brexit-gift-for-the-uk-88336">aftermath</a> of the Irish general election of February 2016. An increasingly fragmented party system ensured government formation took more than two months. The resulting confidence and supply agreement with the main opposition party, Fianna Fáil, led by Micheál Martin, rested on an uneasy alliance between two old enemies, propped up by a disparate group of independents. </p>
<p>This confidence and supply arrangement, that many felt would not last its original term of three budgets, was <a href="https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2018/12/13/news/fianna-fail-agrees-to-extend-its-confidence-and-supply-deal-with-fine-gael-led-coalition-government-for-the-duration-of-2019-1507327/">extended in December 2018</a> for one more year, ensuring there will be no general election before 2020. In the face of a disorderly Brexit, with its associated economic threats and a seemingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-customs-are-central-to-solving-the-irish-border-impasse-110453">unsolvable border conundrum</a>, how has this come to pass? </p>
<h2>Solidly pro-European</h2>
<p>First and foremost, Brexit is just short of a national crisis for the Irish Republic. The fallout for the <a href="https://www.centralbank.ie/publication/quarterly-bulletins/quarterly-bulletin-q1-2019">economy could be stark</a> and the memories of a hard border and the associated violence are very real to anyone over 35 years old. While not quite the grand coalition of a country at war, the need for stability led Fianna Fáil to agree to continue its support of the current minority government into 2020. </p>
<p>Unlike in the UK, there is a broad consensus that Brexit offers few opportunities for the Republic and the overarching goal is to minimise its – inevitable – costs. Parties of the left and right are united in their rejection of a hard border. Traditional economic and nationalist ideological divisions do not colour the Brexit debate in Ireland. While Irish parties vary in their support for the European project, with Fine Gael traditionally the most pro-European, there is not a single party – or faction within them – that advocates a departure from the EU. Bolstering this position, of the 28 member states’ citizens, Irish people remain <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ireland/en/news-press/eurobarometer-85-per-cent-support-for-eu-in-ireland">among the most positively disposed</a> towards the EU. </p>
<p>But this is not just a tale of selfless cross-party unity in the face of a national crisis – it is also a strategic choice on the part of the two biggest parties. In contrast with the UK, neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil has any hopes of winning an electoral majority, should the government be brought down. <a href="https://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/SBP-January-2019-Poll-Report-GE16.pdf">Public opinion polls</a> demonstrate remarkable stability in party support, meaning an election called in the coming months would result in much the same division of seats as in 2016. There is also no public appetite for an election at this time of uncertainty and any party bringing down the government fears being punished at the polls. </p>
<h2>Brexit red lines</h2>
<p>Fianna Fáil is also still trying to win back public trust and support after what was widely seen as their mismanagement of the economy in the run up to the economic crash of 2008. A decade after austerity, the party’s reputation is still tarnished. Its support of Varadkar’s minority government is an opportunity to redeem the party brand and cast off an image as a power-hungry, office-seeking party. </p>
<p>It’s playing a long game. Once a dominant party, Fianna Fáil lost three-quarters of its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/26/fianna-fail-irish-general-election">seats in the 2011 election</a> and is still only a shadow of its former glory. And given the lack of any significant ideological difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the former can achieve some of its policy priorities in opposition, while simultaneously avoiding taking the blame for <a href="https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2018q4-dafthouseprice">spiralling house and rental prices</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/sep/05/dublin-homelessness-crisis-jars-with-narrative-of-irish-economic-boom">homelessness</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/59000-people-will-still-be-on-waiting-lists-by-late-2019-37636167.html">hospital waiting lists</a>. Although, it’s worth noting that Brexit has, oddly, provided the government some cover from public dissatisfaction with its underwhelming response to these domestic crises.</p>
<p>Coalition governments are the norm in Ireland. Minority coalitions are quite typical, representing almost half of post-war executives. One consequence of this is that the Irish political system has had more time to practice the fine art of consensual governance, which is so alien to the Westminster system. But there is much uncertainty. </p>
<p>The next two months will be a challenge for the incumbent Irish government, especially if pressure to concede a time limit on the central issue of the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-backstop-refresh-why-the-uk-and-eu-cant-agree-on-northern-ireland-105080">Irish backstop</a>” builds. This point has been a red line for the government – any weakening or concession on this point will damage Varadkar and Fine Gael and will strain the confidence and supply arrangement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gail McElroy receives funding from the Irish Research Council and Horizon2020. </span></em></p>The Irish premier Leo Varadkar leads a minority government that is holding steady despite a rocky start.Gail McElroy, Professor in Political Science, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/555232016-02-29T14:25:10Z2016-02-29T14:25:10ZWhat’s going on with the Irish election?<p>After the shortest official election campaign in the nation’s history – a mere 23 days – the Irish election has thrown the country into uncertainty.</p>
<p>With 552 candidates competing for 157 seats across 40 constituencies, no party or coalition option has emerged as the clear winner. A number of recounts are underway but a fresh election may be needed to find a government.</p>
<p>Comparisons are already being made with Spain, where four parties have not been able to form a stable government since elections held in December. Never before has an Irish election delivered such a diverse and ambiguous result.</p>
<h2>End of civil war divisions?</h2>
<p>In a way, the two big beasts of Irish politics, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have reassumed their traditional positions as the two largest parliamentary parties.</p>
<p>Centre-right Fine Gael remains the largest party, despite losing almost a third of its parliamentary seats. Its message of “keeping the recovery going” is deemed to largely have been met with derision by an electorate still feeling the effects of economic crisis.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"702912951926263808"}"></div></p>
<p>Meanwhile, centrist Fianna Fáil seems to be experiencing a rehabilitation. In government before and during the economic crisis, the party suffered near wipeout in the 2011 election, but has more than doubled its seats this time round. </p>
<p>With both hovering at around 20% of the vote (rather than the 35%+ usually needed to form a coalition with one or more of the other smaller parties) it seems a union of these two parties is the only option. However, there remains significant opposition to working together. The two trace their roots to opposing sides in the Irish civil war of 1922.</p>
<p>As had been expected, Labour, the outgoing junior coalition partner, was decimated at the polls. The party has taken much of the blame for the austerity imposed over the past five years. Having won 37 seats in 2011, it is now struggling even to hold on to the seven needed to secure parliamentary speaking rights.</p>
<p>Sinn Féin continues its trajectory of growth in the Republic, increasing its seat numbers from 14 to at least 22. With less than 15% of first preference votes, however, there may be some disappointment that the party did not do better. Pre-election polls suggested around 20% was possible. The party has also ruled out entering into a coalition with either of the two biggest parties. </p>
<p>Outside these four main parties, however, the election has also accelerated the fragmentation of the Irish party system with a host of small parties and independents now occupying almost 20% of seats.</p>
<p>Two small left groupings, the <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/social-democrats-a-very-good-day-for-new-party-says-shortall-1.2551621">Social Democrats</a> and the <a href="http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/aaapbp-is-ready-to-vote-for-adams-as-taoiseach-34476775.html">Anti-Austerity Alliance - People Before Profit</a> coalition join the Green Party as the smaller parties in the chamber. But as elsewhere in Europe, a strong anti-political party vote has also emerged in the form of an array of non-aligned parliamentarians.</p>
<h2>The in-tray piles up</h2>
<p>If and when a new administration takes office, it will face some immediate problems. The British referendum on EU membership has seismic implications for Ireland, not least for <a href="https://www.esri.ie/news/new-report-on-the-economic-consequences-of-brexit-for-ireland/">trade</a> and <a href="https://www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/speeches/speeches-archive/2015/november/what-brexit-means-for-northern-ireland/">cross-border</a> issues on the island.</p>
<p>With the June EU referendum looming, as well as elections to the devolved Assembly in Northern Ireland in May, the potential for major geopolitical changes looms large.</p>
<p>The Irish state is also fast approaching the centenary celebrations of the <a href="http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/ireland-1845-to-1922/the-1916-easter-rising/">1916 Easter Rising</a> in late March.</p>
<p>This is widely regarded as a pivotal moment for the Irish independence movement and a carefully managed official <a href="http://www.ireland.ie">state programme</a> of events will take place, with many other commemorative events being organised by <a href="http://www.thejournal.ie/1916-fianna-fail-1931361-Feb2015/">other parties</a> seeking to stake a claim. Until a coalition deal can be struck, the political colour or colours of the government that will lead the commemorations is far from clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55523/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muiris MacCarthaigh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recounts are underway following a vote that left no clear winner.Muiris MacCarthaigh, Lecturer in Politics and Public Administration , Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/552382016-02-23T14:02:22Z2016-02-23T14:02:22ZHas Ireland’s ‘complacent’ government cost itself the election?<p>Ireland is to hold an election on Friday and, if the opinion polls are to be believed, the result will be a damning verdict on the country’s established political parties. In fact, Ireland’s 80-year-old party system will be shattered.</p>
<p>Going into this short election campaign – the shortest in Irish history – the parties that make up the coalition government were feeling pretty confident. The economy was picking up after five rough years and <a href="http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/">polls looked positive</a>, at least for the larger right-of-centre Fine Gael party. Less so perhaps for the smaller left-of-centre Labour party.</p>
<p>The coalition parties have been telling voters that they face a clear choice between stability (re-election of the current government) or chaos. There have been <a href="http://www.newstalk.com/election2016/Enda-Kenny-General-Election-alternative-government-GE16-Sinn-Fein-Fianna-Fail">doom-laden references</a> to recent electoral outcomes in Greece, Portugal and Spain to drive home the point.</p>
<p>Ranged against the government parties are two alternative scenarios, and neither looks strong enough to topple the coalition.</p>
<p>On one hand, a group of left-wing parties is offering an undoubted alternative. The largest of these is Sinn Féin, a party historically associated with the Northern Ireland troubles and whose main raison d’être is a united Ireland. The idea would be to work with smaller left-wing parties, such as <a href="http://antiausterityalliance.ie/2015/09/statement-on-the-anti-austerity-alliance-people-before-profit-initiative/">Anti-Austerity Alliance – People Before Profit party</a>, and independents on the hard left of Irish politics. While this group (most of them fighting under the banner <a href="http://www.right2change.ie/about">Right 2 change</a>) has a pretty clear offering – focusing on equality issues and taxing high earners – it is divided internally. It is also unlikely to secure enough votes to form a government in its own right.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there is the centrist Fianna Fáil party. This used to be Ireland’s predominant party but voters blamed it for the economic crisis and its vote collapsed in 2011. Although it has had a good campaign so far, it probably has too far to go to topple its long time competitor, Fine Gael.</p>
<h2>Pride before a fall</h2>
<p>But then the government parties could always lose the election for themselves. They seemed on safe ground in arguing at the outset of the campaign that there was no credible alternative on offer. But this strategy has backfired: they were accused of being <a href="http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/former-fine-gael-campaign-chief-launches-stinging-critique-of-governments-reelection-bid-34458154.html">too arrogant</a>, of assuming that the election was <a href="http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/they-want-a-coronation-not-an-election-micheal-martin-slams-fine-gael-in-ard-fheis-speech-34370494.html">nothing more than a coronation</a>. That, plus a clumsy campaign launch by Fine Gael – when it tarnished its image as the party of prudence by being seen to offer too many electoral goodies – is proving costly for the government parties.</p>
<p>This has been reflected in the campaign polls which have showed little if any momentum for the government parties. If anything the trend has been in the opposite direction. The Labour party, in particular, appears to be approaching electoral meltdown.</p>
<p>According to the latest <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/longform/2016/0222/769893-poll-of-polls-update/">poll of polls</a> the coalition partners are likely to be 15 or more seats short of an overall majority in Ireland’s 158-seat parliament.</p>
<p>If they were a handful of seats short – as was envisaged by most at the start of the election campaign – then it might have been possible to cobble together a coalition with the support of like-minded independents or one or other of the new parties, such as the left-of-centre Social Democrats or right-wing <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-will-be-make-or-break-for-renua-1.2544475">Renua party</a> – each expected to pick up a small handful of seats.</p>
<p>But if the polls are correct and unless there is a late surge in support, the gap now looks too large to be bridged. That leaves only one likely election outcome – a hung parliament. From there Fine Gael will probably form a minority government (perhaps with Labour) that limps on for a few months before the inevitable precipitation of fresh elections.</p>
<p>A second outcome – a long shot that can’t be entirely ruled out – is that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil bury their long held animosity towards each other (one born out of a civil war divide in the early 1920s) and form a grand coalition. Both parties fervently reject this possibility, but as the poll trends refuse to cooperate, their denials appear ever more hollow.</p>
<p>Whatever the electoral outcome, one thing is certain about this election: that the dominant hold over the political system held by the three main established parties (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour) is about to suffer a serious hit.</p>
<p>Between them they used to sweep up more than 90% of the seats in parliament. In 2011 – seen at the time as “an electoral earthquake” – their joint seat tally still stood at over 80%. Based on poll projections it looks like it now will shrink to 65% or less. This is a party system in change. Where it will end up is anyone’s guess.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Farrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fine Gael and Labour felt confident going into this short campaign – perhaps a little too confident.David Farrell, Professor of Politics, University College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/257862014-05-22T12:48:21Z2014-05-22T12:48:21ZEU election: campaign dominated by austerity bad news for Irish government<p>The Republic of Ireland will be voting in the European Parliament elections on Friday May 23 – on the same day as the country holds its local elections. Ireland’s representation in the European Parliament is being reduced from 12 seats in 2009 to 11 seats, involving a reduction from four to three regional constituencies (Dublin; South; Midlands-North West). </p>
<p>The country is one of only two EU members (the other is Malta) that will be using the <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/single-transferable-vote/">Single Transferable Vote</a> system for the election. The STV is also used in the Northern Ireland constituency within the UK.</p>
<p>Since 2008, political debate in the Republic of Ireland has been dominated by the fall-out from the country’s banking crisis and recession. The crisis led to an EU bail-out package of €67.5 billion in November 2010 after which Ireland <a href="http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/the-week-ireland-gave-up-its-sovereignty-29796376.html">was effectively ruled</a> by the “Troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF. A series of austerity budgets were imposed, first by a Fianna Fáil-Green Party coalition government – and after they suffered a resounding defeat in the general election of 2011, by a Fine Gael-Labour Party coalition. </p>
<p>In December 2013 the country left the bail-out programme and was able to return to borrowing on the international financial markets. However, the government’s budget choices were still tightly constrained by the EU.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/ireland/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
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<p>It might therefore be assumed that the issues of European integration and the economy would dominate the 2014 EP election. But while the state of the economy is undoubtedly the main issue in the 2014 EP election, there is much less of a debate around the European Union. This reflects the fact that there is still a <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/08/09/irish-mps-are-more-in-favour-of-european-integration-than-their-voters-which-may-be-a-result-of-the-under-representation-of-certain-social-groups-in-parliament/">wide political consensus in favour of the EU</a> in Ireland, coupled with a sense that there is no feasible alternative to EU participation. </p>
<p>Similarly, in relation to the economic issues, there is a broad political consensus that there are few realistic alternatives available to Ireland. Therefore, the debate centres more on minor differences of interpretation, with one or two issues becoming symbols of public acquiescence or opposition to austerity. Notably, the proposed <a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/homes-to-be-charged-for-water-by-end-2014-237840.html">introduction of water charges</a> is one which will resonate in both the local and European election campaigns, since the charges are being introduced as part of the requirements of the bail-out.</p>
<h2>Poll setback for governing coalition</h2>
<p>European Parliament elections <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/03/21/irelands-electoral-system-ensures-that-the-irish-european-parliament-elections-will-be-fought-on-the-basis-of-personalities-rather-than-parties/">almost always produce reversals for government parties</a>, and this seems set to continue in the Irish case in 2014. The two partners in the coalition government, the centre-right Fine Gael and the centre-left Labour Party, have been losing support steadily in opinion polls. </p>
<p>In particular, Labour is struggling as voters seem set to penalise it for supporting a programme of cut-backs. The polls indicate increased support for the main centre-right opposition party, Fianna Fáil, and for the left-wing and nationalist Sinn Féin party. In addition, independent candidates and minor parties usually do well in Irish elections.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Predicted vote share and seats for 2014 European Parliament elections in Ireland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/03/21/irelands-electoral-system-ensures-that-the-irish-european-parliament-elections-will-be-fought-on-the-basis-of-personalities-rather-than-parties/#Author">Michael Costello via LSE Blogs</a></span>
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<p>However, these lines of division amongst the key players do not map readily onto the key issues. As already noted, Fianna Fáil share very similar policy approaches to the economy and to the EU as do Fine Gael and Labour. Therefore, a successful election for Fianna Fáil is unlikely to produce any significant change of emphasis in Ireland’s relationship with Europe. A success for Sinn Féin would potentially be of greater import, as that party has been a more persistent critic of the austerity programmes and of the current direction of many EU policies.</p>
<p>The public response is likely to be conditioned by dissatisfaction with the economic conditions in the country, coupled with a feeling that there are few alternatives available. Certainly, while Ireland has traditionally been strongly supportive of European integration, recent polls have shown a decline in that support. </p>
<p>However, at the same time the polls indicate that voters still accept the broad approach as laid down by the Troika and the government. So while there is evidence of growing discontentment with the EU, this has reached nothing like the levels of Euroscepticism to be found in countries like the UK or Greece.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Holmes is a member of Next Left research group attached to the Federation of European Progressive Societies. He receives funding from the British Council.</span></em></p>The Republic of Ireland will be voting in the European Parliament elections on Friday May 23 – on the same day as the country holds its local elections. Ireland’s representation in the European Parliament…Michael Holmes, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Liverpool Hope UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.