tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/franklin-delano-roosevelt-21537/articlesFranklin Delano Roosevelt – The Conversation2023-09-21T20:47:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141152023-09-21T20:47:04Z2023-09-21T20:47:04ZMedia mogul Rupert Murdoch resigns − extending Joe Biden’s ongoing good luck streak with the media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549644/original/file-20230921-25-3annrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks during a press conference at the White House in January 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-speaks-during-a-news-conference-in-the-news-photo/1237839403?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th president of the United States of America on Jan. 20, 2021.</p>
<p>Imagine if someone could go back in time and inform him and his communications team that a few pivotal changes in the media would occur during his first three years in office.</p>
<p>There’s the latest news that Rubert Murdoch, 92, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/murdoch-fox-quit-emeritus-30286a4a3107b7bde612adbfc7891958">stepped down</a> as the chairperson of Fox Corp. and News Corp. on Sept. 21, 2023. Since the 1980s, Murdoch, who will be replaced by his son Lachlan, has been the most <a href="https://theconversation.com/rupert-murdoch-and-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-press-barons-how-much-power-do-newspapers-still-have-213283">powerful right-wing media executive</a> in the U.S.</p>
<p>While it’s not clear whether Fox will be any tamer under Lachlan, Murdoch’s departure is likely good news for Biden, who <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/media/reliable-sources-biden-murdoch-fox-news/index.html">reportedly despises the media baron.</a></p>
<p>Adding to Biden’s good-luck list is that Elon Musk, an eccentric – and erratic – billionaire, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html">purchased Twitter</a>, now rebranded as X, in October 2022, prompting <a href="https://www.expressvpn.com/blog/twitter-in-numbers/">millions of American users to drop</a> the social media platform, which has become a hotbed of right-wing activity and commentary. </p>
<p>X’s power as an <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-lists/elon-musk-twitter-celebrities-quit-1234634670/">influential social</a>, political and <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/4/15/23683554/twitter-dying-elon-musk-x-company">cultural force</a> has since continued to decline. Former President Donald Trump <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/3743666-trump-says-he-has-no-interest-in-returning-to-twitter-after-reinstatement/">even originally spurned an invitation</a> to return to X, after Twitter <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954760928/twitter-bans-president-trump-citing-risk-of-further-incitement-of-violence">suspended his account</a> in 2021 for the risk it posed to incite violence. (Trump has since posted one time on X, on Aug. 24, 2023.) </p>
<p>These and other incidents mark an astonishing and even historic run of good luck for Biden, who, like all politicians, remains somewhat reliant on the media to both get his word out and craft a positive public image.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YxTJsxoAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of media history</a>, I think it’s fair to say no American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has enjoyed such a run of good media luck. </p>
<p>Ultimately, this luck – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/us/politics/biden-public-appearances-media.html#:%7E:text=Biden%20averaged%2010%20news%20conferences">coupled with his avoidance of press conferences</a> – might help Biden evade the intense scrutiny that all presidents face.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rupert Murdoch wears a dark shit and walks in a street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549643/original/file-20230921-26-2fmdld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Media mogul Rupert Murdoch, pictured in July 2023, announced his resignation on Sept. 21.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rupert-murdoch-at-his-annual-party-at-spencer-house-st-news-photo/1258950833?adppopup=true">Victoria Jones/PA Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Other conservative voices in decline</h2>
<p>A few other major media shifts have transpired during Biden’s presidency.</p>
<p>Fox News <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/tucker-carlson-don-lemon-new-era-cable-news">lost approximately 1 million nightly prime-time viewers</a>, or about a third of its audience, between 2020 and early 2023. CNN and MSNBC <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cnn-ratings-chris-licht-584ea2b45819d2cc416006d7bd8b77e8#:%7E:text=will%20be%20rewarded.-,Cable%20news%20ratings%20are%20down%20across%20the%20board%20compared%20to,according%20to%20the%20Nielsen%20company.">ratings tanked,</a> too, reflecting an <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/15/23833516/nielsen-tv-cable-50-percent-decline-viewership-bum-bums#:%7E:text=The%20analytics%20firm%20showed%20that,watch%20time%20in%20American%20homes.">overall decline of the cable TV news universe.</a></p>
<p>It’s also noteworthy that conservative political commentator Rush Limbaugh <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/rush-limbaugh-died-lung-cancer-after-denying-smoking-s-risk-ncna1258395">died on Feb. 17, 2021,</a> leaving a massive void in right-wing talk radio. Many loyal Limbaugh listeners <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/fact-sheet/audio-and-podcasting/">then deserted AM talk radio</a> as a main way they get <a href="https://www.deseret.com/2022/2/18/22940913/its-been-a-year-since-rush-limbaugh-died-whats-changed-clay-travis-buck-sexton-megyn-kelly-joe-rogan">their news</a>. </p>
<p>More recently, Fox News fired Tucker Carlson, the host of America’s most popular right-wing cable TV news program in May 2023, after Carlson’s <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/05/tucker-carlson-white-men-text-message#:%7E:text=For%20instance%2C%20the%20higher%2Dups,to%20give%20him%20the%20ax.">racist text messages</a> were made public as part of the lawsuit against Fox by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trial-trump-2020-0ac71f75acfacc52ea80b3e747fb0afe">Dominion Voting Systems</a>. Fox <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/08/17/fox-news-ratings-rebound-jesse-watters-carlson/">did regain some viewers</a> after Carlson left.</p>
<p>And, finally, in September 2023, Project Veritas, a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/21/1158505780/project-veritas-james-okeefe-forced-out-financial-malfeasance">right-wing political group</a> known for hiding cameras to embarrass journalists and nonprofits the group considered to be politically liberal, reportedly <a href="https://www.mediaite.com/news/new-project-veritas-suspends-all-operations-amid-devastating-layoffs-and-fundraising-struggles/">ended all of its investigations</a> and <a href="https://www.mediaite.com/news/new-project-veritas-suspends-all-operations-amid-devastating-layoffs-and-fundraising-struggles/">fired almost all</a> its remaining employees. </p>
<p>Given Biden’s low approval levels – only 40.6% of Americans said they <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">approved of Biden</a> in September 2023 polls – I cannot say with certainty that this chain of setbacks for conservative media platforms has helped Biden maintain, or drawn in, more voters and their support. </p>
<p>But this remains an astonishing and even historic run of good luck for a Democratic president when it comes to the media – bringing to mind Roosevelt, who benefited from a similar turn of events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Franklin Delano Roosevelt sits at a table with microphones labeled 'CBS' and 'NBC' in a black and white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549647/original/file-20230921-27-7zaz3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Franklin Delano Roosevelt addresses the nation during a fireside chat two days after the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-politician-who-served-as-the-32nd-president-of-the-news-photo/1222445846?adppopup=true">Icon and Image/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>FDR’s stroke of good luck</h2>
<p>It’s important to note that, in some ways, Roosevelt manufactured his luck.</p>
<p>Roosevelt hosted regular, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/fireside-chats-f-roosevelt">popular fireside chats</a> on the radio in the 1930s and ’40s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-fireside-chat-provided-a-model-for-calming-the-nation-that-president-trump-failed-to-follow-133473">as a way to connect with voters</a> and <a href="https://reason.com/2017/04/05/roosevelts-war-against-the-pre/">counter the newspapers</a> that opposed him. </p>
<p>The media supported the <a href="https://www.fdrlibrary.org/polio">White House’s attempts to hide Roosevelt’s paralysis</a>, the result of <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/disabilityhistorypresidents.htm">contracting polio</a> in his 20s. And, at the request of the White House, some media outlets <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01439688200260131">censored people on the radio</a> who were critical of Roosevelt’s policies. </p>
<p>In much the same way, Joe Biden’s media team has skillfully exploited the media. </p>
<p>Biden, for example, has kept a relatively low public profile – in the last century, only Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon have <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-news-conferences">convened fewer average annual press conferences</a> than the current president at this point in their tenure.</p>
<h2>Luck may not last forever</h2>
<p>The decline of conservative media over the past few years does not constitute a perfect trajectory for Biden – that would require, for instance, the emergence of a new liberal media figure with the influence of a Limbaugh or Carlson. </p>
<p>But Biden has benefited from right-wing media tumult. </p>
<p>It’s not yet clear what Rupert Murdoch’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/sep/21/rupert-murdoch-fox-news-lawsuits-donald-trump">departure will mean for Fox News</a>, especially since his son Lachlan Murdoch was already well established at Fox Corp. as a top executive and staunch conservative.</p>
<p>There’s no guarantee that Biden’s media luck will hold. </p>
<p>One potentially <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-charge-investigation-e5c8ded90ea8c22d2e2e7cb09804b747">compromising factor</a> is that Biden’s son Hunter is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/19/hunter-biden-gun-charges-plea-hearing">facing felony gun possession charges</a> and is expected to plead not guilty on Sept. 26, 2023. </p>
<p>But much of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/11/us/politics/hunter-biden-legal-troubles-timeline.html">media has avoided</a> the most <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12520091/Joe-Biden-KNEW-Hunter-having-drug-fueled-meltdown-time-bought-gun-heard-voicemail-tearfully-pleading-help.html">scandalous details or images</a> portraying Hunter Biden’s alleged illegal activities – or failed to clearly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/11/briefing/the-hunter-biden-case.html">explain why they have avoided such reporting</a>.</p>
<p>This offers yet another example of Joe Biden’s outsized luck.</p>
<h2>A belated fall</h2>
<p>It is useful to remember that President Warren G. Harding was the president previous to Roosevelt who enjoyed good fortune with the media.<br>
Harding, the only professional journalist to be elected president, enjoyed enormous popularity within the newspaper industry. </p>
<p>Reporters, for example, hid his <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/warren-harding-child-sex-sandal-121404/">widely rumored</a> – <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/harding/family-life">and eventually proven</a> – extramarital affairs. </p>
<p>But after Harding <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/strange-death-warren-harding">died unexpectedly</a> in 1923, the truth about his administration’s corruption and his personal dealings, <a href="https://www.history.com/news/warren-harding-scandals">including details about hush payments</a> to cover up a secret, unacknowledged child, dribbled out. </p>
<p>This happened first through quiet leaks, then in a flood prompted by a <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/why-president-warren-g-hardings-sudden-death-sparked-rumors-of-murder-and-suicide-180982626/">congressional investigation</a> in the late 1920s regarding a top Harding administration official and <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/cabinet-member-guilty-in-teapot-dome-scandal">a bribery scandal</a>. </p>
<p>Harding’s reputation never recovered. </p>
<p>In Harding’s case, the so-called “<a href="https://dicktofel.substack.com/about">first draft of history</a>” provided by the newspapers proved embarrassingly inaccurate.</p>
<p>In other words: The president’s luck didn’t hold out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Socolow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While President Joe Biden has low approval ratings, few other American presidents − with the exception of FDR and Warren Harding − have experienced such a run of good media luck.Michael J. Socolow, Professor of Communication and Journalism, University of MaineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122332023-09-14T18:53:09Z2023-09-14T18:53:09ZHunter Biden is the latest presidential child to stain a White House reputation − but others have shined it up<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548059/original/file-20230913-25-9vesrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C2982%2C2020&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden and family after he was sworn in at the U.S. Capitol, January 20, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenInauguration/4df43ce386994cf098c6f2e8f1f104fb/photo?Query=Hunter%20Biden%20Joe%20Jill&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1292&currentItemNo=31&vs=true">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hunter Biden, the surviving son of President Joe Biden, <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ded.82797/gov.uscourts.ded.82797.40.0.pdf">was indicted on Sept. 14, 2023</a>, on gun-related charges – facing a possible criminal trial while his father is campaigning for reelection. The charges relate to Hunter Biden’s alleged lying about his drug use when he purchased a gun in 2018. And a conviction could mean <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/14/us/politics/hunter-biden-indictment-gun-charges.html">prison time of 10 years</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/14/hunter-biden-indicted-on-gun-charges-00115964">or more</a>. </p>
<p>As Hunter Biden’s legal peril rises, with all its ensuing political complications, people have rediscovered the likes of <a href="https://www.biography.com/political-figures/a44270818/hunter-biden-scandals-involving-kids-of-presidents">Ulysses Grant Jr., Alice Roosevelt and Neil Bush</a>, as if the best way to make sense of Hunter Biden is found in a rogues’ gallery of difficult presidential relatives. </p>
<p><a href="https://history.wustl.edu/people/peter-kastor">As a historian of the American presidency</a>, I see the case of Hunter Biden as a revealing indicator of the ways that presidential children have figured in American public life, whether they were beloved or reviled. </p>
<p>Most presidents and first ladies have <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/All-the-Presidents-Children/Doug-Wead/9780743446334">attempted to protect their children</a> – especially their young children – from the scrutiny and the emotional toll of public life. Whether they were publicly visible or not, their children have always been factors in the presidents’ public lives and presidents have sought to exploit the political benefits they can draw from their children. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, commentators and the American public alike have drawn their own conclusions about individual presidents and the presidency as an institution in part on the basis of presidential children. </p>
<p>In my own research, I have observed that presidents have consistently looked to their adult sons as potential political allies, only to find that young children and especially young daughters have become more effective political assets. Those dynamics have only intensified over time, especially in recent decades as presidents increasingly <a href="https://commonreader.wustl.edu/c/marriage-in-the-white-house/">put their private lives on public display</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A collage of three photos of men with brides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Their daughters’ weddings help humanize a president; clockwise from left, Lyndon Johnson and daughter Lynda; George W. Bush and daughter Jenna; Richard Nixon and daughter Tricia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Johnson: Getty Images; Bush: Shealah Craighead/The White House via FilmMagic; Nixon: Nixon White House Photographs</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>America, mirrored</h2>
<p>Presidential children have reflected how Americans think about age and gender, parenting and politics. </p>
<p>Those sometimes abstract concepts assume real form in presidential families. And they operate in unexpected ways. The fact that gender norms often precluded presidential daughters from an <a href="http://ap.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/womens-history/essays/women-american-politics-twentieth-century">explicitly political role</a> paradoxically could make them more popular public figures. The assumption that young children <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2014/12/02/politics/political-kids-off-limits/index.html">should be free from the political rough-and-tumble</a> has recently made them highly effective symbols for presidential image-making.</p>
<p>Presidents have often sought a role for their adult sons in supporting their administrations. Many of those sons happily obliged. In 1837, Martin Van Buren <a href="https://www.nps.gov/mava/learn/historyculture/abraham-van-buren.htm">appointed his son, Abraham</a>, to serve as his private secretary, at the time a high-level confidential advisor. Over a century later, <a href="https://www.nps.gov/people/john-eisenhower.htm">Dwight Eisenhower selected his son, John</a>, to serve as assistant staff secretary. <a href="https://erpapers.columbian.gwu.edu/james-roosevelt-1907-1991">James Roosevelt campaigned for his father, Franklin</a>, and quite literally supported him. In public appearances, Franklin would lean on James, holding his hand in what appeared to be an expression of affection but was actually <a href="https://erpapers.columbian.gwu.edu/james-roosevelt-1907-1991">a tactic to hide his polio-related disability</a>. </p>
<p>The ambitions of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/john-quincy-adams/">John Quincy Adams</a>, son of the second president of the U.S., <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/john-adams/">John Adams</a> and himself a future president, raised <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/presidential-nepotism-debate-goes-back-to-the-founders-time">accusations of nepotism</a> in a country that claimed to have eliminated a royal class. But <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/white-house-hostesses-the-forgotten-first-ladies">Martha Jefferson Randolph</a> could fill the traditional role of first lady and serve as confidante to her father, the widower and <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/thomas-jefferson">third U.S. president, Thomas Jefferson</a>. </p>
<p>The sons of Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt both faced accusations that they traded on their fathers’ names <a href="https://fdr.blogs.archives.gov/2018/01/31/sons-of-the-commander-in-chief-the-roosevelt-boys-in-world-war-ii/">to secure undeserved offices</a>. <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/291313/wilson-by-a-scott-berg/">In contrast, Woodrow Wilson’s daughter</a>, Margaret, served as first lady for over a year before her widowed father remarried. Her younger sister, <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/pioneering-women-of-the-woodrow-wilson-white-house-1913-1921">Jessie, was an activist</a> for women’s suffrage and the League of Nations.</p>
<p>As journalists, historians and the American public have <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/606853/the-presidents-vs-the-press-by-harold-holzer/">tried to pierce the veil of privacy</a> surrounding presidential private life over the past half-century, presidents and the politicos who surround them have also sought to remove that veil, but selectively so, with an eye toward their own advantage. </p>
<p>Biographers <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/6467/6467-h/6467-h.htm">celebrated presidents like Teddy Roosevelt</a> and <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/visit-museum/exhibits/past-exhibits/first-children-caroline-and-john-jr-in-the-kennedy-white-house">John Kennedy who played with their young children</a>. Ronald <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/family-feud-reagans-children-debate-legacy-father/story?id=12786615">Reagan’s children argued about whether he was a good father</a>, claiming that his private behavior should affect whether people should see him as a great president.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/18/politics/gallery/white-house-weddings-history/index.html">White House weddings of Lynda Bird Johnson and Tricia Nixon</a> provided opportunities to soften the image of the brass-knuckles political personalities of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. These were <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/digital-library/exhibits/something-old-something-new-eight-first-daughters-fashionable-white-house-weddings">major public events</a> in their own time, and the notion that Nixon wanted to exploit the event while never abandoning his antagonism toward the Washington press corps was a <a href="https://www.20thcenturystudios.com/movies/the-post">subplot in the 2017 film, “The Post</a>.”</p>
<p>The Johnson and Nixon weddings offered a preview of how White House children provided presidents with image management opportunities. But the process began in earnest 30 years ago, as Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama sought to preserve the privacy of their young daughters even as they made conspicuous efforts to demonstrate their role in raising those daughters. </p>
<p>In “A Place Called Hope,” a promotional film for his 1996 re-election campaign, Bill Clinton beamed with pride as he discussed <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFMo3d9zq9g&t=5m4s">Chelsea Clinton’s growing comfort at political events</a>. George W. Bush <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/200372/decision-points-by-george-w-bush/">celebrated both of his daughters’ public careers</a>, even when Barbara became an activist with left-leaning organizations. Barack Obama joked with TV host Jimmy Kimmel about managing his daughters’ social media accounts, as if he were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNyd34TPXUg&t=2m23s">just another befuddled father</a>.</p>
<p>In an era of identity politics, when the explicit <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/10/feminisms-identity-crisis/304921/">invocation of feminism could generate a political backlash</a>, these young daughters provided the means for these three presidents to reinforce the image of themselves as members of just another American family and modern fathers who supported their daughters. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LFMo3d9zq9g?wmode=transparent&start=303" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Clinton speaks about his daughter, Chelsea, in a promotional video.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those family-oriented images made the shift to Donald Trump all the more jarring. His approach harkened back to the 19th century, when presidents appointed their adult sons to office while young children rarely appeared in public. Rather than exploit young Barron Trump’s potential to present Trump as a caring father, Trump preferred to emphasize his grown children. </p>
<p>Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/don-jr-and-eric-trump-campaigning-2018-10">regularly served as surrogates for their father</a>. Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/10/ivanka-trump-jared-kushner-nepotism-conflicts-of-interest">held official appointments</a> in the administration. </p>
<p>Yet whatever benefit he believed he drew from these adult children, Trump found they were immediate <a href="https://apps.bostonglobe.com/opinion/graphics/2021/06/future-proofing-the-presidency/part-3-a-sordid-family-affair/">lightning rods</a> for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-eric-trump-business.html">public criticism</a>.</p>
<h2>How to look normal</h2>
<p>The template of presidential children making their fathers appear more familiar and accessible still rules. </p>
<p>While the adult children of most Republican candidates have been invisible on the current campaign trail, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – often described as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/10/us/politics/desantis-iowa.html">awkward</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/17/ron-desantis-likability-issue-on-politics-00077927">lacking charm</a> – has made a point of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/us/politics/ron-desantis-age.html">appearing with his young children</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-biden/">Joe Biden’s preferred political origin story</a> is the image of the caring father who was sworn into the Senate in a hospital ward so he did not leave Beau and Hunter following the car crash that killed Biden’s first wife and his only daughter. </p>
<p>At the Democratic Convention in 2008, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden nominated his father <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYjrS-F3dCc">as the party’s candidate for vice president</a>. He was the latest presidential son to campaign for his father. But <a href="https://apnews.com/general-news-d8f69eb645d74b7886387f713981b739">Beau died from brain cancer</a> at age 46. With Beau gone and Hunter’s legal problems a political liability, Biden has taken a page from his predecessors’ handbook. </p>
<p>If his administration cannot cast Biden as a young dad like Ron DeSantis, they can surround him with his grandchildren. In fact, when Biden won the presidential election in 2020, one of the first photos from the Biden camp came from his granddaughter, Naomi, showing her generation of the family <a href="https://people.com/politics/election-2020-joe-biden-celebrates-victory-with-grandchildren/">literally surrounding their grandfather</a>. </p>
<p>The indictment wasn’t the only bad news for the Bidens – father and son – in one week. Hunter Biden had already become the ultimate lightning rod for his father, with the announcement on Sept. 12, 2023, by the House GOP that they <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-shutdown-house-republicans-b187202be8814f7acbdd6e2e937e23d4">will undertake impeachment proceedings</a> based largely on the president’s alleged interactions with his son’s business ventures. Hunter Biden’s place in the story of presidential children is thus clear, a story that politicians now know by heart: As a crucial element in his father’s public image – for better or for worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kastor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politics, age and gender combine to shape the understanding of presidents’ families – and the presidents themselves.Peter Kastor, Professor of History & American Culture Studies, Associate Vice Dean of Research, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104442023-08-08T19:07:18Z2023-08-08T19:07:18ZKamala Harris has tied the record for the most tie-breaking votes in Senate history – a brief overview of what vice presidents do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540877/original/file-20230802-6332-61kj04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C21%2C4690%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to cast a tiebreaking vote in the U.S. Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-arrives-at-the-senate-chamber-news-photo/1500382345">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-kamala-harris-joe-bidens-pick-for-vice-president-144122">Kamala Harris</a> became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first African American, the first person of South Asian descent</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-kamala-harris-became-bidens-running-mate-shirley-chisholm-and-other-black-women-aimed-for-the-white-house-143655">first</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/call-in-the-women-chrystia-freeland-and-kamala-harriss-new-roles-respond-to-the-times-144896">woman</a> to serve as vice president of the United States.</p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-tiebreaker-vote-db39d642bc423f4984b0ad7b32139ecb">she made history again</a> by casting her 31st tie-breaking vote in the Senate, matching only one other vice president’s record for such votes. <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/07/12/harris-ties-calhouns-191-year-old-record-for-breaking-senate-ties/">John C. Calhoun</a>, who was vice president from 1825 to 1832, needed all eight years of his term to reach that number. In contrast, Harris has only been in office for two and a half years.</p>
<p>If her tie-breaking continues, Harris could end up as one of the most <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3689844-why-kamala-harris-is-already-among-the-most-consequential-vice-presidents-in-history/">consequential</a> vice presidents in history, casting the deciding votes on several laws, <a href="https://theconversation.com/states-pick-judges-very-differently-from-us-supreme-court-appointments-160142">judicial nominations</a> and spending plans. However, this distinction says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.</p>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times.</p>
<p>Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Historically, ties have been rare. Since 1789, only <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm">299 tie-breaking votes</a> have been cast, and 12 vice presidents, including current President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/VPTies.pdf">never cast a single one</a>.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-1/clause-6/succession-clause-for-the-presidency">As written, it is unclear</a> whether this meant that a vice president became the new president or was simply serving in an acting capacity. This was later clarified with the passage of the 25th Amendment, which states that “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">the Vice President shall become President</a>.” The 25th Amendment also outlines how to fill a vacancy in the vice presidency, and it provides a mechanism for the vice president to serve temporarily as president if a president becomes “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-25th-amendment-says-about-presidents-who-are-unable-to-serve-102825">unable to discharge the powers and duties</a> of his office.”</p>
<p>Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents, like presidents, can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” </p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">serve as</a> – or replace – the president, vice presidents are really only obligated to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tiebreaking vote</a> in the Senate. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” </p>
<p>However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “the vice president should be <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died, likely of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">kept the atomic bomb a secret</a> from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against Sen. John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Sen. Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” </p>
<p>Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Biden served 36 years in the Senate before leaving to become Barack Obama’s vice president. When he agreed to be Obama’s running mate, Biden said he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions were being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An ally in an increasingly divided Senate</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">Under the rules of the U.S. Senate</a>, if just one lawmaker doesn’t want a bill to advance, they can attempt to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HJuaQL3KRI">delay</a> its passage indefinitely via <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-states-dont-have-a-filibuster-nor-do-many-democratic-countries-156093">the filibuster</a>. A supermajority of three-fifths of the senators, or 60 of the 100, is required <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-senate-filibuster-explained-and-why-it-should-be-allowed-to-die-123551">to stop the filibuster</a> – or signal that one would not succeed – and proceed to a vote.</p>
<p>Over the years, the Senate has made <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/23/13709518/budget-reconciliation-explained">various procedural</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/nuclear-option-what-it-why-it-matters-n742076">changes</a> to the filibuster, limiting when it can be used.</p>
<p>The end result of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/filibuster-reform-short-guide">these reforms</a> is that the Senate is now empowered to do more with just a simple majority. In addition, in recent years, the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">Senate has become increasingly divided</a>. Together, this has created the conditions that have empowered Harris to cast so many tie-breaking votes so quickly, solidifying both her place in history and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-might-drop-his-vice-president-and-reasons-why-he-shouldnt-199655">her place alongside Biden in the 2024 election</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-vice-president-do-152467">article</a> initially published Jan. 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kamala Harris is on track to be one of the most influential vice presidents in history. This says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882682023-06-13T12:30:17Z2023-06-13T12:30:17ZThe overlooked story of the incarceration of Japanese Americans from Hawaii during World War II<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529104/original/file-20230530-23-br74q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C30%2C742%2C336&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A 1945 photograph of detainees at the Honouliuli Internment Camp.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://npgallery.nps.gov/AssetDetail/bedc8c747d3d46ae9ffe6368e16eb64c">courtesy of National Park Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the months and years following Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor in Hawaii on Dec. 7, 1941, the U.S. government incarcerated a large number of Japanese American civilians from the U.S. mainland. </p>
<p>Often forgotten are the Japanese Americans who lived in Hawaii and were also forced from their homes and imprisoned in Hawaii and on the U.S. mainland. </p>
<p>Their forced relocation and incarceration has been largely omitted from the dominant narrative of Japanese American internment in the U.S. during World War II. Additionally, attempts by governments to provide redress to those individuals and memorialize their treatment have been slower than for individuals interned on the U.S. mainland. </p>
<h2>Internment in the US mainland and Hawaii</h2>
<p>In February 1942, President Franklin Roosevelt <a href="https://tupress.temple.edu/books/the-rise-and-fall-of-america-s-concentration-camp-law#:%7E:text=It%20restricted%20the%20freedom%20of,it%20was%20repealed%20in%201971.">issued</a> <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/executive-order-9066">Executive Order 9066</a>, which allowed for the creation of U.S. military areas from which people could be excluded. </p>
<p>Although the executive order made no mention of any ethnic group, it implicitly <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shameful-stories-of-environmental-injustices-at-japanese-american-incarceration-camps-during-wwii-174011">targeted Japanese Americans</a> because of widespread xenophobic fear that they would spy for the Japanese government or engage in acts of sabotage within the U.S.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A crowd of men gathers behind President Franklin D. Roosevelt as he signs a paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Dec. 8, 1941, a day after the attack on Pearl Harbor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the U.S. declaration of war against Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cabinet-members-watch-with-mixed-emotions-as-president-news-photo/514080362?adppopup=true">Bettmann/GettyImages</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>As a result, almost 120,000 civilians of Japanese ancestry, the majority of whom were from the West Coast and were American citizens, were <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-9185-9">incarcerated</a> in camps by the government on suspicion that they <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295984513/judgment-without-trial/">posed a threat</a> to U.S. security on basis of their ancestry.</p>
<p>In Hawaii, which had been colonized by the U.S. in 1898, the incarceration of Japanese Americans was much smaller in scale than that on the mainland.</p>
<p>Given that Japanese Americans <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">made up</a> more than one third of Hawaii’s total population during World War II and thus a sizable <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295984513/judgment-without-trial/">wartime</a> labor force, U.S. forces incarcerated about <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii">2,000 Japanese Americans</a> from Hawaii. These people <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12695">included</a> community figures, Japanese language teachers and Shinto priests.</p>
<p>Additionally, hundreds of Japanese Americans in Hawaii, although not imprisoned, were <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">forcibly removed</a> from their homes, taken to other parts of the territory and, at times, not permitted to return to their homes.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="The official government instructions on internment of Japanese Americans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the authorization of the U.S. government, the U.S. military rounded up and incarcerated Japanese Americans shortly after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-internment-of-japanese-americans-was-the-world-war-ii-news-photo/1354474652?adppopup=true">History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Honouliuli Internment Camp, known as Hell Valley among internees, <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii#:%7E:text=Bayonets%20in%20Paradise%3A%20Martial%20Law%20in%20Hawai%CA%BBi%20During%20World%20War%20II,-%2445.95&text=Hardcover%2C%20489%20pp.,Hawai%CA%BBi%20during%20World%20War%20II.">opened</a> in 1943 on the island of Oahu and was the largest confinement site in Hawaii.</p>
<p>Unlike other camps in Hawaii, it housed civilians and prisoners of war. During its three years of operation, the camp <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii#:%7E:text=Bayonets%20in%20Paradise%3A%20Martial%20Law%20in%20Hawai%CA%BBi%20During%20World%20War%20II,-%2445.95&text=Hardcover%2C%20489%20pp.,Hawai%CA%BBi%20during%20World%20War%20II.">held around 320</a> Japanese American civilians.</p>
<p>The camps in Hawaii, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shameful-stories-of-environmental-injustices-at-japanese-american-incarceration-camps-during-wwii-174011">as on the mainland</a>, were crowded, monitored by armed guards and surrounded by barbed wire fences.</p>
<p>As a result of their detention, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/japanese-americans/justice-denied">former internees have experienced</a> mental health issues alongside heightened rates of suicide and early death.</p>
<h2>Official US redress</h2>
<p>Following <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-tragedy-of-democracy/9780231129237">years of advocacy</a> by Japanese American organizations, President Jimmy Carter authorized the creation of the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/111th-congress/house-report/666/1">Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians</a> in 1980.</p>
<p>Three years later, the commission <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/24746908">issued recommendations</a>, including that the U.S. government apologize and provide reparations of US$20,000 to Japanese American survivors, including Japanese Americans from Hawaii.</p>
<p>Despite his <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12695">initial opposition </a>to the commission’s recommendation that the U.S. government provide reparations, in 1988, President Ronald Reagan signed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442">Civil Liberties Act</a>, which provided a formal apology and reparations of $20,000 to many former internees.</p>
<p>At the signing, <a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-signing-bill-providing-restitution-wartime-internment-japanese-american">Reagan referred</a> to Japanese American internment as a “grave wrong” that was undertaken “without trial … based solely on race.” </p>
<p>Despite this, he made no reference to the fact that the civilian camps were created and run by the U.S. government and Army, nor did he recognize that these actions constituted human rights abuses. </p>
<p>Furthermore, upon its creation, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442">Civil Liberties Act</a> had a significant flaw – it excluded hundreds of affected Japanese Americans from Hawaii from receiving that restitution.</p>
<p>That oversight was corrected in 1992, when <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">President George H.W. Bush</a> signed into law the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/102nd-congress/house-bill/4551/text">Civil Liberties Act Amendments</a>, which broadened eligibility for restitution.</p>
<h2>Selective memorialization</h2>
<p>Since that period, U.S. government and nongovernment organizations have selectively memorialized Japanese American incarceration by designating some prison camps as national historical sites and creating mainland-centric memorials. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.njamemorial.org/visit">National Japanese American Memorial to Patriotism During World War II</a> in Washington, D.C., created in 2000, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=4111">includes multiple walls</a> inscribed with the names of all mainland camps and the number of individuals interned there, but makes no reference to specific incarceration camps in Hawaii.</p>
<p>That said, the monument, which was organized by a Japanese American NGO, does <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/japanese-american-memorial-to-patriotism-during-world-war-ii.htm">include an inscription</a> which recognizes that Japanese Americans were incarcerated in the mainland and Hawaii. </p>
<p>Additionally, between 1992 and 2008, mainland camps <a href="https://www.nps.gov/manz/index.htm">Manzanar </a>and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/tule/index.htm">Tule Lake</a> in California and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/miin/index.htm">Minidoka</a> in Idaho were designated as national historical sites or monuments by U.S. presidents or Congress. However, it was not until 2015 that President Barack Obama <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/02/24/presidential-proclamation-establishment-honouliuli-national-monument">designated</a> the Honouliuli Internment Camp a national monument. </p>
<p>This selective memorialization is unsurprising given that Hawaii, like other territories colonized by the U.S., is often <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/how-to-hide-an-empire-9781473545335">omitted</a> from accounts of American history. Nonetheless, such memorialization is problematic, as it reinforces the dominant narrative of Japanese American incarceration that <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-tragedy-of-democracy/9780231129237">focuses on</a> the mainland camps and West Coast Japanese Americans and obscures the imprisonment of Japanese Americans from Hawaii. </p>
<p>The bombing of Pearl Harbor has become <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/a-date-which-will-live#:%7E:text=December%207%2C%201941%E2%80%94the%20date,to%20them%20are%20hardly%20settled">ingrained in American memory</a> and, as a result, for many Americans, Hawaii symbolizes white American victimhood. </p>
<p>But as the incarceration of Japanese Americans from Hawaii demonstrates, Hawaii is also a symbol of human rights abuses committed by the U.S. government against Japanese Americans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivia Tasevski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When US President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, he paved the way for the incarceration of Japanese Americans on the mainland and HawaiiOlivia Tasevski, Tutor in International Relations and History, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1992542023-02-20T12:50:29Z2023-02-20T12:50:29ZPresidential greatness is rarely fixed in stone – changing attitudes on racial injustice and leadership qualities lead to dramatic shifts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510927/original/file-20230217-440-ugm5ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C72%2C1004%2C603&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A statue of Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, sits in the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. Historians consistently have given Lincoln, the Great Emancipator, their highest rating because of his leadership during the Civil War. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/statue-of-abraham-lincoln-is-seen-in-the-lincoln-memorial-news-photo/1244410710?phrase=abraham lincoln memorial&adppopup=true">Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every American president has landed in the history books. And historians’ assessments of their performance have been generally consistent over time. But some presidents’ rankings have changed as the nation – and historians themselves – reassessed the country’s values and priorities. </p>
<p>Historians have been ranking presidents in surveys since <a href="https://home.csulb.edu/%7Eastevens/posc100/files/ratings.htm">Arthur Schlesinger Sr.’s first such study</a> appeared in Life magazine in 1948. The results of that survey categorized Presidents Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson as “great.”</p>
<p>At the other end of the ranking, Presidents Ulysses S. Grant and Warren Harding were labeled “failure.” </p>
<p>There have been numerous surveys ranking presidents since then, including a <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1962/07/29/356745922.html?pageNumber=143">1962 survey by Arthur Schlesinger Jr.</a>, which showed Jackson dropping into a “near great” category. </p>
<h2>Changing views shift rankings</h2>
<p>While the surveys point to Americans’ evolving social attitudes, with implications for our electoral politics and governance, they don’t always ask historians the same questions. Some simply ask them to rank presidents. Others ask them to also judge specific aspects of leadership, such as economic policy or international diplomacy. </p>
<p>Despite the relative stability of the ratings across surveys – especially at the top, where Lincoln, Washington and Roosevelt consistently hold sway – there have been some dramatic changes. C-SPAN’s four surveys on presidential leadership, for example, show some shifts in historians’ ranking of presidents over time.</p>
<p>Since <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2000%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2000</a>, the cable network has polled prominent historians every time there has been a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_9HaCYWGS8">change in administrations</a>. So, C-SPAN conducted surveys in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2009%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2009</a>, <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2017%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2017</a> and <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a> as well.</p>
<p>The surveys offer not only an overall ranking of presidents, but also rankings in each of the following 10 categories: public persuasion, crisis leadership, economic management, moral authority, international relations, administrative skills, relations with Congress, vision and agenda setting, pursuance of equal justice for all, and performance within the context of the times.</p>
<p>While Lincoln has ranked at the top of each survey, the two presidents who served right before him – <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/franklin-pierces-murky-legacy-as-president">Franklin Pierce</a> and <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/james-buchanan-why-is-he-considered-americas-worst-president">James Buchanan</a>, both sympathetic to slavery – and his immediate successor, white supremacist <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/johnson/life-in-brief">Andrew Johnson</a>, have consistently ranked at the bottom. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/donald-j-trump/">Donald Trump</a> debuted in C-SPAN’s 2021 survey near the bottom. He was ranked 41st of 45 presidents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A suited man, with ear-length hair, sits with his left hand resting on a side table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andrew Johnson was Abraham Lincoln’s vice president and successor. As president, he vetoed legislation designed to help African Americans during Reconstruction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrew-johnson-17th-president-of-the-united-states-1860s-news-photo/463975927?phrase=andrew%20johnson%20&adppopup=true">The Print Collector/ Hulton Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is a good leader?</h2>
<p>As a <a href="https://directory.richmond.edu/bios/ggoethal/">social psychologist and leadership scholar</a> at the University of Richmond’s Jepson School of Leadership Studies, with long-standing interests in presidential leadership, I believe these surveys can be best understood in terms of psychologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(86)90042-9">Dean Keith Simonton’s model</a> of evaluating presidents.</p>
<p>He maintains that historians generally view leaders, including presidents, positively to the extent that they fit a deeply ingrained image of someone who is strong, active and good. And that image comes to mind when they think of attributes and events linked to a president that suggest he was a good leader. Examples include how long he served, whether he was a war hero and whether he was assassinated, and in that sense, was a martyr. </p>
<p>On the other hand, historians also easily recall scandals, such as <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/watergate">Richard Nixon’s Watergate</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/issues-policy/us-domestic-policy/making-teapot-dome-scandal-relevant-again">Harding’s Teapot Dome</a>. These detract from these presidents’ “good” image, as evidenced by Nixon’s and Harding’s rankings of 31st and 37th, respectively, in C-SPAN’s <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a> survey.</p>
<h2>Race matters</h2>
<p>In recent years, presidents’ positions on race and racism have been important factors in historians’ evaluations of their records. For example, Wilson’s rather startling efforts to <a href="https://millercenter.org/issues-policy/us-domestic-policy/the-debate-over-woodrow-wilson">segregate federal offices and the military</a> are becoming more widely known as scholars explore that aspect of his presidency.</p>
<p>His actions in that regard may overshadow his <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/wilson/foreign-affairs">international idealism</a>, which favored morality over materialism and has been viewed positively. He is no longer considered one of our “great” presidents. In Schlesinger Sr.’s 1948 survey, he ranked fourth of 29 presidents. But in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a>, historians ranked him 13th of 45 for C-SPAN. </p>
<p>Jackson dropped the most in C-SPAN’s surveys, from 13th in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2000%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2000</a> to 22nd in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a>. His commitment to <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jackson/domestic-affairs">Indian removal</a> from Southern and Midwestern states, not unique for the time, and the resulting <a href="https://cherokeehistorical.org/trail-of-tears/">Trail of Tears</a> – the forced and violent relocation of Native Americans from their homelands – are important topics in today’s political discussions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A suited man stands with a top hat in his right hand as his left hand rests on a side table dressed in a table cloth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Grover Cleveland, in office from 1885 to 1889 and 1893 to 1897, opposed efforts to integrate schools or give African Americans, whom he considered inferior to white people, voting rights.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-grover-cleveland-holding-top-hat-news-photo/640459089?adppopup=true">Library of Congress/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several other presidents who lost ground, including <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/the-enslaved-households-of-james-k-polk">James Polk</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/zachary-taylor">Zachary Taylor</a>, <a href="https://www.rbhayes.org/hayes/hayes-evolving-views-on-anti-slavery-reconstruction/">Rutherford B. Hayes</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/cleveland/domestic-affairs">Grover Cleveland</a>, were associated with efforts to extend slavery or with failure to protect African Americans following Reconstruction.</p>
<p>Then there is the case of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gen-ulysses-s-grants-pending-promotion-sheds-new-light-on-his-overlooked-fight-for-equal-rights-after-the-civil-war-194896">Grant</a>. Ranked at the bottom as a failure in the mid-20th century, he had the largest ranking change of any president in the C-SPAN surveys. He jumped 13 places from 33rd in 2000 to 20th in 2021. He had already moved up from second-to-last place in the 1948 and 1962 Schlesinger surveys to somewhere in the bottom quartile in 2000, to a position in 2021 where more presidents ranked worse than he did.</p>
<p>The 2021 C-SPAN survey ranks Grant sixth on “pursued equal justice for all,” behind only Lincoln, Lyndon Johnson, Barack Obama, Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter. Given the centrality of equal justice, which may overshadow whatever connection Grant may have had to scandals in his administration, such as <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/tcrr-credit-mobilier-scandal/">Crédit Mobilier</a> and the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2018/12/18/crosshairs-an-investigation-president-fired-special-prosecutor/">Whiskey Ring</a>, Grant rises in historians’ overall evaluation.</p>
<h2>Moral authority</h2>
<p>This all suggests historians have quite simple ways of evaluating presidents. We have an image of the ideal leader. Just a few pieces of information relating to that ideal make a big difference in whether we view presidents as fitting or not fitting that image. This is particularly true of our perception of how good they were. Presidents’ moral commitments speak loudly to whether or not we view them as good.</p>
<p>Interestingly, on the quality of “moral authority” in the C-SPAN surveys from 2000 to 2021, Grant’s ranking rose 14 rungs, from 31st to 17th, even more than it did on “pursued equal justice for all,” where it rose 12 rungs, from 18th to sixth. Wilson and Jackson dropped 13 and 18 places, respectively, on “moral authority.”</p>
<p>Clearly, moral judgments loom large in historians’ assessments of presidential leadership.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man, dressed in a suit, sits with his right leg crossed over his left. His left hand rests on a book, atop a side table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ulysses S. Grant, once ranked poorly by historians, now gets high marks. His advocacy for African American voting rights stands out among his efforts for the freedmen during Reconstruction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ulysses-s-grant-18th-president-of-the-united-states-c1869-news-photo/463975929?phrase=Ulysses%20S.%20Grant&adppopup=true">Print Collector/Hulton Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George R. Goethals received funding from the National Institute of Mental Health from 1971-1983. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Society of Experimental Social Psychology, and the Association for Psychological Science and a member of the Society of Personality and Social Psychology and the International Leadership Association.
Dr. Goethals met Dean Keith Simonton at a professional meeting. </span></em></p>Historians change their views of presidents over time, often because of the country’s changing views on race and moral leadership.George R. Goethals, Professor in Leadership Studies, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1766632022-02-16T20:15:34Z2022-02-16T20:15:34ZAll American presidents have lied – the question is why and when<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446325/original/file-20220214-138710-1elarsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C12%2C2874%2C1942&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Critics of President Joe Biden have accused him of lying. Most American presidents have been accused of deception.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-speaks-during-an-event-at-germanna-news-photo/1369802125?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Those who dislike a president tend to emphasize the frequency or skill with which he lies. </p>
<p>During the Trump administration, for instance, The Washington Post kept a running database of the president’s lies and deceptions – with the final tally running to over <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/24/trumps-false-or-misleading-claims-total-30573-over-four-years/">30,000 falsehoods</a>. President Joe Biden’s critics have insisted that he, too, is a <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/11/22/bidens-obsessive-lies-small-and-large-are-big-trouble-for-america/">liar</a> – and that the media is complicit in ignoring his supposed frequent <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/572189-why-isnt-it-a-lie-when-joe-biden-says-something-false-or-dishonest">deception of the American people</a>. </p>
<p>The frequency of these criticisms would seem to indicate that most people do not want a president who lies. And yet a recent <a href="https://progressive.org/dispatches/lies-more-lies-presidential-history-lueders-200810/">study of presidential deception</a> found that all American presidents – from Washington to Trump – have told lies, and knowingly so, in their public statements. The most effective of presidents have sometimes been effective precisely because they were skilled at <a href="https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/paradoxes-of-the-american-presidency-9780190648503?cc=us&lang=en&">manipulation and deception</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://phil.washington.edu/people/michael-blake">political philosopher</a> with a focus on how people try to reason together through political disagreement, I argue that what matters most is not whether a president lies, but when and why he does so. </p>
<p>Presidents who lie to save their own public image or career are unlikely to be forgiven. However, those who appear to lie in the service of the public are often celebrated.</p>
<h2>The morality of deception</h2>
<p>Why, though, are lies thought so wrongful in the first instance?</p>
<p>Philosopher Immanuel Kant, in the 18th century, provided one powerful account of <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199577415.001.0001/acprof-9780199577415-chapter-4">the wrongness of lying</a>. For Kant, lying was wrong in much the same way that threats and coercion are wrong. All of these override the autonomous will of another person, and treat that person as a mere tool. When a gunman uses threats to coerce a person to do a particular act, he disrespects that person’s rational agency. Lies are similarly disrespectful to rational agency: One’s decision has been manipulated, so that the act is no longer one’s own.</p>
<p>Kant regarded any lie as immoral – even one told to <a href="https://experts.illinois.edu/en/publications/kant-and-lying-to-the-murderer-at-the-door-one-more-time-kants-le">a murderer at the door</a>. </p>
<p>Modern-day philosophers have often endorsed versions of Kant’s account while seeking exceptions from its rigidness. One common theme is the necessity of the deception for achieving an important political goal. For example, a political leader who gives honest answers about a forthcoming military operation would likely imperil that operation – and most citizens of the state engaging in that military action would not want that. The key is that people might accept such deception, after the fact, because of what that deception made possible. </p>
<p>During World War II, the British government sought to deceive the Nazi command about its plans for invasion – which entailed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/06/d-day-would-be-nearly-impossible-pull-off-today-heres-why/">lying even to British allies</a>. The moral imperative of defeating Nazi Germany is generally thought to be important enough to justify this sort of deception.</p>
<p>This example also illustrates another theme: Deception might be permitted when it is in the context of an adversarial relationship in which truth-telling should not be expected. Lying to one’s own citizens may or may not be justifiable – but there seems to be very little wrong about lying to one’s <em>enemies</em> during wartime. </p>
<h2>Honorable lies?</h2>
<p>These ideas might be used in defense of some presidential lies. </p>
<p>During the 1930s, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was convinced that Hitler’s expansionism in Europe was a threat to the liberal democratic project itself, but he faced an electorate without any will to intervene in a European war. Roosevelt chose to insist publicly that he was opposed to any intervention – while doing everything he could to prepare for war and to covertly help the <a href="https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2017/01/04/how-franklin-d-roosevelt-prepared-us-for-wwii/">British cause</a>. </p>
<p>As early as 1948, historian <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24911690">Thomas Bailey</a> noted that Roosevelt had made a calculated choice to both prepare for war and insist he was doing no such thing. To be open about his view of Hitler would have likely led to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CVqTXJjmtmUC&pg=PA298&lpg=PA298&dq=roosevelt+lying&source=bl&ots=0frUEvK02d&sig=ACfU3U3djJZzxplhbGcQwVXwPOAqWJaa2w&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiQ_cKC_evrAhUBip4KHUTjDqY4ChDoATAGegQICBAB#v=onepage&q=the%20man%20in%20the%20street&f=false">his defeat in the 1940 election</a>. </p>
<p>Before Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln made similar calculations. Lincoln’s lies regarding his negotiations with the Confederacy – described by <a href="https://www.megmott.com">Meg Mott</a>, a professor of political theory, as being “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/24/politics/presidents-lie/index.html">devious</a>” – may have been instrumental in preserving the United States as a single country.</p>
<p>Lincoln was willing to open peace negotiations with the Confederacy, knowing that much of his own party thought that only unconditional surrender by the South would settle the question of slavery. At one point, Lincoln wrote a note to his own party asserting – falsely – that there were “<a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jala/2629860.0021.104/--hampton-roads-peace-conference-a-final-test-of-lincolns?rgn=main;view=fulltext">no peace commissioners</a>” being sent to a conference with the Confederacy. </p>
<p>A member of the Congress later noted that, in the absence of that note, the 13th Amendment – which ended the practice of chattel slavery – <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jala/2629860.0021.104/--hampton-roads-peace-conference-a-final-test-of-lincolns?rgn=main;view=fulltext">would not have been passed</a>.</p>
<h2>Good lies and bad lies</h2>
<p>The problem, of course, is that a great many presidential lies cannot be so easily linked to important purposes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark suit speaks into microphones, with flags in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446331/original/file-20220214-15-66fael.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. President Bill Clinton addresses the nation to apologize for misleading the country about his relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-bill-clinton-addresses-the-nation-from-the-rose-news-photo/462731481?adppopup=true">William Philpott/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>President Bill Clinton’s lies about his sexual activities were either simply self-serving or told to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Fe88rwSW8ywC&pg=PT507&lpg=PT507&dq=bill+clinton+%22the+lie+saved+me%22&source=bl&ots=AJY7EQZHoq&sig=ACfU3U2uGl7_XXWvjxHXE5jYNH0XyzOZyA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjFsPGE0enrAhWTvJ4KHY_WB5MQ6AEwC3oECAIQAQ#v=onepage&q=bill%20clinton%20%22the%20lie%20saved%20me%22&f=false">preserve his presidency</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, President Richard Nixon’s insistence that he knew nothing about <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/nixon-insists-that-he-is-not-a-crook">the Watergate break-in</a> was most likely a lie. John Dean, Nixon’s legal counsel, confirmed years later that the president <a href="https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/08/07/john-dean-uncovers-what-nixon-knew-about-watergate">knew about, and approved of</a>, the plan to rob the Democratic National Committee headquarters. This scandal eventually ended Nixon’s presidency. </p>
<p>In both cases, these presidents faced a significant threat to their presidencies – and chose deception to save not the nation, but their own power. </p>
<h2>President Biden, President Trump and truth</h2>
<p>It is likely that President Trump lied <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/06/podcast-glenn-kessler-david-corn-lies-washington-post-fact-checker/">more than most presidents</a>. What is striking about his lies, however, is that they have tended to be told to defend his own <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/04/trump-male-ego-merkel-schroeder/">self-image or political viability</a> rather than in service of some central political good.</p>
<p>Indeed, some of President Trump’s more implausible lies seemed best understood as tests of loyalty; those in his circle who repeated his most obvious lies <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/26/14386068/why-does-trump-lie">demonstrated their loyalty to President Trump in doing so</a>. Most recently, he has attacked as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/24/donald-trump-big-lie-american-democracy">disloyal</a> those members of the Republican Party who have not repeated his false claims about electoral fraud.</p>
<p>Recent studies indicate that President Biden, thus far, has not shown himself equal to President Trump <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmarkowitz/2021/04/30/who-lied-more-during-their-first-100-days-biden-trump-or-obama/?sh=56acaa81a89d">in his deceptiveness</a>. He has, however, made deceptive and misleading claims on a number of topics, ranging from the costs of particular policies to his <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/list/?page=1&category=&ruling=false&speaker=joe-biden">own history and early life</a>. These lies seem somewhat unlike those told by Lincoln and by Roosevelt; they seem generally told in the interests of making a rhetorical point more powerful rather than as necessary means to an otherwise unobtainable political goal. They seem, in that respect, less morally justifiable than these earlier falsehoods.</p>
<p>A justification for these lies might be found with reference to practices which – like warfare or politics – necessarily involve conflict and gamesmanship. No one would expect honesty from the enemy side during warfare, and perhaps one should not from opponents in politics either. Some political philosophers have thought that, when politics becomes <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691057392/ethics-for-adversaries">an adversarial game</a>, politicians might be forgiven when they seek to deceive the other party. President Biden might rely upon this idea, and could note that the Republican Party is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/10/bipartisanship-is-out-biden-its-about-time/">less open to bipartisan negotiation than at any time in its history</a>. </p>
<p>Even this last justification, however, may not be enough. Lying to one’s political opponents might be permitted in an adversarial context. The lies told by presidents are often addressed to constituents, and such deception seems harder to justify. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>And finally, even the most important of lies must be believed for it to be justifiable; a lie that is immediately recognized as such is unlikely to achieve the goal justifying that lie. This is an increasingly difficult burden. Modern presidents find it more <a href="https://www.issuelab.org/resources/15318/15318.pdf">challenging to lie</a> without having their lies recognized as untrue than presidents serving before the advent of social media and dedicated <a href="https://www.factcheck.org">fact-checking</a>. </p>
<p>If presidents must sometimes lie to defend important political values, then, it seems as though the good president must be both able to lie and able to lie well. </p>
<p><em>This is updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-washington-to-trump-all-presidents-have-told-lies-but-only-some-have-told-them-for-the-right-reasons-145995">first published on September 17, 2020</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Blake receives funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities.</span></em></p>A political philosopher argues that while all American presidents may lie, those who appear to lie for the public good are often celebrated.Michael Blake, Professor of Philosophy, Public Policy and Governance, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1755942022-02-15T13:41:30Z2022-02-15T13:41:30ZToshio Mori endured internment camps and overcame discrimination to become the first Japanese American to publish a book of fiction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446330/original/file-20220214-23-13rzncp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a 1949 photograph, Mori works in his family's nursery in San Leandro, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Steven Y. Mori</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eighty years ago, on Feb. 19, 1942, President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued <a href="https://www.archives.gov/historical-docs/todays-doc/?dod-date=219">Executive Order 9066</a>, which led to more than <a href="https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/japanese-relocation">100,000 people</a> of Japanese ancestry living in the western United States being moved into internment camps. </p>
<p>At the time, Toshio Mori, a U.S. citizen with Japanese parents, was an aspiring writer who had a contract to publish a collection of his short stories in 1942. As a result of the executive order, however, he was sent to one of the camps, and the publisher delayed the book’s release.</p>
<p>As an archivist and scholar studying publishing in the western United States, I’ve found <a href="https://archiveswest.orbiscascade.org/ark:/80444/xv02075">unpublished and unreported archives</a> that tell the story of Mori’s difficulty getting his book, “<a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295994741/yokohama-california/">Yokohama, California</a>,” published in a country roiled by prejudice against Asian Americans.</p>
<h2>Perseverance pays off</h2>
<p>Mori was born in Oakland, California, in 1910, the son of Japanese immigrants. As he recounted in <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Counterpoint_Perspectives_on_Asian_Ameri/29zg96n6z-MC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=%22serious%20writer%22">an interview</a>, Mori wanted to be a “serious writer” – which, to him, meant getting published. He took his neighborhood as his subject and wrote about his majority Japanese community. </p>
<p>Mori turned Oakland into the fictionalized town of “Yokohama” and described the life of the “<a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Issei/">issei</a>,” or first generation, and their children, the second generation, known as “<a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Nisei/">nisei</a>.”</p>
<p>But Mori had little time to write. He worked full time at his family’s garden nursery, with workdays often stretching to 16 hours. Starting when he was 22 years old, Mori adhered to <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Asian_American_Short_Story_Writers/skdEeK1SEAQC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=%22held%20himself%20to%20a%20strict%22">a disciplined daily schedule</a> in which he would work all day, return home and write from 10 p.m. until 2 a.m.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man sits at desk in front of typewriter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446332/original/file-20220214-13-bf0y8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mori carved out time to write every evening.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Steven Y. Mori</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After receiving dozens of rejection letters – “enough to paper a room,” <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Chauvinist_and_Other_Stories/HdxlAAAAMAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=enough%20to%20paper%20a%20room">he quipped</a> – Mori finally had his first story, “The Brothers,” published at age 28 in The Coast magazine.</p>
<p>Mori found a champion for his writing in author <a href="http://williamsaroyanfoundation.org/biography">William Saroyan</a>, winner of a Pulitzer Prize and an Academy Award. Saroyan read “The Brothers,” liked it, and began encouraging and promoting Mori as a writer, even helping him find a publisher for his short stories.</p>
<p>After being rejected by several New York book publishers, Mori submitted his collection of stories to <a href="https://www.caxtonpress.com/">The Caxton Printers</a>, a small publishing company in Idaho. In his submission letter, Mori made the case for his book:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I believe that the time has come for someone in our little world to be articulate. … In our present national crisis I believe that the American public would be interested to look into the lives of Japanese Americans living in their communities.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Caxton accepted the manuscript for publication. James H. Gipson, Caxton’s founder, liked Mori’s collection of stories and recognized their uniqueness.</p>
<p>“It is what you would call a good book,” Gipson <a href="https://archiveswest.orbiscascade.org/ark:/80444/xv02075">wrote in an internal memo</a>, “and it is rather important as it is the first writing dealing with Americans born of Japanese parents, and tells in simple, understandable, and unvarnished language, the problems of the Japanese.”</p>
<p>Saroyan, who was famous at the time, wrote an introduction for the book, in which he <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Yokohama_California/Z7c3CgAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=%22natural-born%22">called Mori</a> “one of the most important new writers in the country.” On Dec. 2, 1941, Caxton Printers set a tentative publication date for the following autumn. </p>
<p>Five days later, Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. The <a href="https://www.visitthecapitol.gov/exhibitions/legislative-highlights/declaration-war-germany-december-11-1941">U.S. declared war on Japan</a> on Dec. 8.</p>
<h2>A dream deferred</h2>
<p>Even after the attack, Gipson proposed moving ahead with publication as scheduled.</p>
<p>However, just a couple of months later, President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 9066, which led to Mori and his family being forced from their home in San Leandro, California. First, they were sent to <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Tanforan_(detention_facility)/">Tanforan Racetrack</a>, a temporary assembly center. They were then interned at <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/central-utah-relocation-center-site.htm">Topaz War Relocation Center</a> in the Utah desert, where they remained for three years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of Japanese Americans poses in front of a building at an internment camp." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446338/original/file-20220214-21-c2h3ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mori, in the front row, far left, poses with other detainees in front of the Topaz War Relocation Center’s newspaper building.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Steven Y. Mori</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In May 1942, after Mori had been removed from California, Gipson decided to indefinitely delay publication of “Yokohama, California.” Gipson was counting on strong sales to Japanese Americans. But, he reasoned in an internal memo in May 1942, “[the Japanese] are now gathered in concentration camps, however, and it is doubtful that they’ll have any money with which to buy books.”</p>
<p>Another member of Caxton’s editorial staff noted in reply to Gipson that “people are blindly averse” to Japanese Americans. “It may be that there is so much bitterness that it would not sell. One of the most shocking manifestations up to date is the immense growth in racial and religious prejudices.”</p>
<p>More broadly, Gipson explained in a letter to Mori that selling books was a difficult prospect during wartime: “I’m of the opinion that it would be far wiser, for you and for us, if we’d set the date of publication for your book forward to some time in the future. … To bring it out now will mean failure for it in every way.”</p>
<p>Saroyan protested the postponement strongly and urged Gipson to forge ahead with the book’s publication: “Now, more than ever, ‘Yokohama, California,’ should be published.” Mori, too, requested the book appear as scheduled, but ultimately accepted Caxton’s decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a hat and suit looks toward the sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446025/original/file-20220211-13-1de71jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Armenian-American writer William Saroyan was an early champion of Toshio Mori’s work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-author-william-saroyan-in-venice-1949-news-photo/129094213?adppopup=true">Archivio Cameraphoto Epoche/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a separate letter to Mori, Saroyan implored him to keep writing: “You must write a story or two, or eventually a whole short novel about you and your friends, and people, at Tanforan. That is going to be something people are going to want to read. … In short, keep busy; there is more than ever an urgency for you to write.” </p>
<p>At Topaz, Mori served as the camp historian, working to document major and minor events. Despite the restrictive conditions, Mori did continue writing. He reported to Saroyan that he had “enough material to keep me busy for a long time.” Mori completed a draft of a novel about the internment experience, and several of his new short stories appeared in “Trek,” the Topaz literary magazine.</p>
<p>After the war ended, Mori returned to California and worked in the nursery full-time. He married and had a son.</p>
<h2>A flash of recognition</h2>
<p>The manuscript for “Yokohama, California” lay dormant for the duration of the war. Then, in 1946, Caxton’s editors revived the manuscript and resumed correspondence with Mori. The writer contributed two new stories to the collection, both about the Japanese American experience after American entry into the war. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A yellow book cover with a bridge." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446336/original/file-20220214-55472-bzwdsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1149&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first edition of ‘Yokohama, California.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of University of Idaho Special Collections and Archives</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Yokohama, California” was finally released in March 1949, and Mori became the first Japanese American to publish a book of fiction. Saroyan’s introduction still appeared at the beginning of the book, with a brief addendum in which Saroyan noted that the book had been “postponed” because of the war, simplifying the complicated history of the preceding years.</p>
<p>Despite receiving favorable reviews in the national press – Mori was variously described as “a natural-born writer,” a “fresh voice” and “spontaneous” – the book did not sell well, and the majority of the copies were eventually discarded. As poet Lawson Fusao Inada <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Unfinished_Message/7R9bAAAAMAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=%22slid%20into%20oblivion%22">put it</a> in a later introduction to Mori’s work, the story collection “slid into oblivion.”</p>
<h2>The birth of a movement</h2>
<p>For the next two decades, Mori continued to write but struggled to find publishers and an audience for his fiction. It wasn’t until the next generation of Japanese Americans – the “<a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Sansei/">sansei</a>,” or third generation – that Mori finally began receiving recognition for his pioneering work of Japanese American literature.</p>
<p>The nascent Japanese American literary movement coalesced in 1975 with the first meeting of the Nisei Writers’ Symposium in San Francisco. Mori was one of four authors featured at the conference. The following year, the University of Washington hosted a <a href="https://www.krabarchive.com/programs/krab-1976-pacific-northwest-asian-american-writers-conference.html">similar conference</a>, where Mori was again an honored guest and read from his work.</p>
<p>These groups’ efforts brought renewed attention both to Mori and to other nisei Japanese American writers. With this new spotlight, Mori published a novel, “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Woman_from_Hiroshima.html?id=GiBbAAAAMAAJ">Woman from Hiroshima</a>,” in 1978, and a second collection of short stories, “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Chauvinist_and_Other_Stories/HdxlAAAAMAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">The Chauvinist and Other Stories</a>,” in 1979. He died the next year at the age of 70. </p>
<p>Mori wasn’t the only Japanese American author who received recognition years after his work first appeared. The publishing saga of John Okada’s “No-No Boy” is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/t-magazine/japanese-american-novel.html">fraught with sadness</a>. Okada died before his novel received critical acclaim; his widow couldn’t find an archive that wanted his papers, so she destroyed them.</p>
<p>“Yokohama, California” remained out of print for 35 years before the University of Washington Press added it to their “Classics of Asian American Literature” and reprinted it in 1985. The book continues to be available through <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295994741/yokohama-california/">the publisher</a>. Another edition was released in 2015.</p>
<p>Decades after he was held at Topaz, Mori visited the site of another internment camp and <a href="http://newsprint.dailycal.org/">noted</a> that “many people in my generation are reluctant to discuss those events, because they are ashamed they were suspected of disloyalty.” </p>
<p>He pushed back against this impulse, however: “I feel a reminder is important to prevent this from happening again.”</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alessandro Meregaglia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Dec. 2, 1941, a publication date was set for Mori’s first book. Five days later, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, upending the writer’s life and throwing the book’s publication into doubt.Alessandro Meregaglia, Assistant Professor and Archivist, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1740112022-02-10T13:38:11Z2022-02-10T13:38:11ZThe shameful stories of environmental injustices at Japanese American incarceration camps during WWII<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444561/original/file-20220204-23-1u417w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=547%2C395%2C2447%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dust storm on July 3, 1942, at the Manzanar War Relocation Authority Center in California.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/539961">Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of National Archives and Records Administration</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Japanese fighter pilots bombed the U.S. Navy base at Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941, Thomas S. Takemura was raising vegetables and raspberries on his family’s 14 ½-acre farm in Tacoma, Washington. </p>
<p>It wasn’t long after the United States declared war on Japan that Takemura and other people of Japanese ancestry were stripped of their rights and shipped off to incarceration camps scattered in small remote towns like Hunt, Idaho, and Delta, Utah. Scorching heat and dust storms added to the day-to-day misery. </p>
<p>Takemura’s incarceration began on May 12, 1942, just a week before he could harvest his lettuce. </p>
<p>“What a shame,” he later said. “What a shame.”</p>
<p>Takemura gave <a href="https://ddr.densho.org/ddr-densho-67-153/">this detailed account</a> in 1981 when he testified before the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/japanese-americans/hearings">Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians</a>. This commission investigated the wrongful imprisonment of Japanese Americans, one of the most egregious miscarriages of justice in American history. </p>
<p>All told, Takemura estimated he lost at least $10,000 in farm profits for each of the four years he was gone. But the total costs were not just about the money, he told the commission. </p>
<p>Takemura also lost “love and affection,” he testified, “and much more when a person is ordered to evacuate and leave his home without knowing where he is going or when he can return. … To me, words cannot describe the feeling and the losses.” </p>
<h2>Wartime hysteria</h2>
<p>Takemura’s wartime tragedy was the result of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s signing of <a href="https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=74&page=transcript">Executive Order 9066</a> on Feb. 19, 1942, 80 years ago this month. The order allowed for the creation of military areas from which people could be excluded. </p>
<p>It did not mention any specific racial group but Japanese Americans were the clear target because of widespread fear that they would become spies for the Japanese government or commit acts of sabotage within the United States. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A crowd of men gathers behind President Franklin D. Roosevelt as he signs a paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Dec. 8, 1941, a day after the attack on Pearl Harbor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the U.S. declaration of war against Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cabinet-members-watch-with-mixed-emotions-as-president-news-photo/514080362?adppopup=true">Bettmann/GettyImages</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On March 2, Gen. John L. Dewitt, head of the Western Defense Command, created Military Area 1, which encompassed western Washington, Oregon and California and southern Arizona, and Military Area 2, which included the rest of these states. By the end of summer 1942, roughly <a href="https://densho.org/catalyst/how-many-japanese-americans-were-incarcerated-during-wwii/">110,000 Japanese Americans</a>, two-thirds of whom were United States citizens, had been expelled from their homes in <a href="https://www.nps.gov/parkhistory/online_books/anthropology74/images/figure1.1.jpg">Military Area 1 and the California portion of Military Area 2</a>.</p>
<p>They were confined in 10 <a href="https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/japanese-relocation">hastily constructed camps</a> in California, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and Arkansas. While some were allowed to leave camp for military service, college or jobs, many lived in these desolate places until the war ended three years later. </p>
<p>Japanese Americans’ wartime experiences have been the subject of numerous books, essays, <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Literary%20works%20on%20incarceration">memoirs, novels</a>, <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Dramatic%20films/videos%20on%20incarceration">films</a>, <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Museum%20exhibitions%20on%20incarceration">museum exhibits</a> and <a href="https://densho.org/campu/">podcasts</a> – all of which highlight their fortitude in the face of this blatant violation of their civil liberties. Because many survivors tried to move on with their lives quickly, the postwar period does not figure prominently in most of these narratives. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black-and-white photo shows a woman standing in the doorway of one of a series of connected huts bordered by a muddy ditch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444566/original/file-20220204-23-17w3dez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Japanese American families lived in these converted horse stalls at the Tanforan Assembly Center in San Bruno, California, shown in this April 29, 1942, photograph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/537670">Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of National Archives and Records Administration</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there was a gathering wave of discontent among some Japanese Americans in the 1960s and 1970s. With the backdrop of the civil rights movement and anti-Vietnam War protests, leaders of the <a href="https://jacl.org/">Japanese Americans Citizens League</a> and many other activists began to push for redress. They sought the restoration of civil rights, a formal apology and monetary compensation from the U.S. government.</p>
<p>With the support of U.S. Sens. Daniel Inouye and Spark Matsunaga and U.S. Reps. Norman Mineta and Robert Matsui, the league’s redress committee, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2020/03/24/820181127/the-unlikely-story-behind-japanese-americans-campaign-for-reparations">led by John Tateishi</a>, successfully lobbied Congress to create the <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Commission_on_Wartime_Relocation_and_Internment_of_Civilians/">Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians </a>in 1980. </p>
<p>Its nine appointed members were tasked by Congress to review Executive Order 9066 and other military directives that required the detention of U.S. citizens and permanent resident aliens. In addition to conducting archival research, they traveled across the country to take testimony from over 750 witnesses, <a href="https://digitalcollections.lib.washington.edu/digital/collection/tacomacomm/id/54">including Takemura</a>, between July and December 1981. </p>
<p>Over 20 days of hearings, Japanese Americans’ poignant stories of freedoms extinguished and indignities endured poured out like a flood and coursed through the hearing rooms. </p>
<h2>Environmental hazards</h2>
<p>As Takemura’s story suggests, many testimonies made clear that Japanese Americans’ wartime anguish was embedded in the natural environment, from the temperate lands of the Pacific coast to the arid deserts of the inland West. </p>
<p>In other words, the impact of Executive Order 9066 was not just political, economic and cultural. It was also environmental. When former farmers spoke of their displacement, they referred to specific plots of land and specific crops, their years of tending the soil lost to neglect or rapacious speculators.</p>
<p>Like Takemura, <a href="https://ddr.densho.org/ddr-densho-352-350/">Clarence I. Nishizu</a>, whose family farmed in Orange County, California, kept on planting vegetables after the war started, “since I thought that I, as an American citizen, would not be subject to evacuation and internment,” Nishizu later testified. </p>
<p>He was proved wrong, and his family members lost their crops and land. “I was uprooted just at the time when the bud of the rose started to bloom,” he testified. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black-and-white photo depicts seven people squatting in a strawberry field holding harvesting boxes, with mountains and farm buildings visible behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444569/original/file-20220204-501-3k4e9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this April 5, 1942, photograph, a Japanese American family harvests strawberries near Mission San Jose, California, just a few days before their forced removal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/537837">Dorothea Lange/Courtesy of National Archives and Records Administration</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Japanese Americans’ despair was also tied to the harsh environmental conditions of the camps, from blistering heat to blinding dust storms. In describing the trip to Manzanar, a “barren and desolate” camp in eastern California, <a href="https://ddr.densho.org/ddr-densho-67-359/">Dr. Mary Oda</a> recalled, “My first reaction to camp was one of dismay and disbelief.” </p>
<p>In addition to the emotional toll wrought by the bleak surroundings, the physical toll was considerable. Oda said her older sister developed bronchial asthma, “a reaction to the terrible dust storms and winds,” and died at the age of 26. Her father had “constant nasal irritation” and later died of nose and throat cancer. </p>
<p>Oda was not alone in enduring the untimely deaths of beloved family members. <a href="https://collections.carli.illinois.edu/digital/collection/nei_japan/id/1631">Toyo Suyemoto</a> testified about the environment’s devastating impact on her son’s health. Starting at the Tanforan Assembly Center, a racetrack where horse stalls housed humans, infant Kay developed asthma and allergies and struggled with these conditions until his death in 1958 at the age of 16. </p>
<p><a href="https://neiudc.neiu.edu/jarc-hearing/11">Her voice cracking</a> ever so slightly, she concluded, “I simply wonder, members of the commission, what my son, Kay, who would have been 40 years old this year, might be able to tell you today had he lived, for he was a blessing to me.” </p>
<h2>A formal US apology</h2>
<p>One year after the hearings, the commission published <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/japanese-americans/justice-denied">Personal Justice Denied</a>, a nearly 500-page report that concluded Executive Order 9066 was driven by “race prejudice, war hysteria and a failure of political leadership.”</p>
<p>Even former Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson admitted, “to loyal citizens this forced evacuation was a personal injustice.” </p>
<p>The testimonies validated this point hundreds of times over, but they demonstrated that the incarceration was also an environmental injustice. </p>
<p>Japanese Americans’ losses and suffering did not emerge in an environmental vacuum. The federal government’s decision to wrest them away from their land and place them in unfamiliar and unforgiving places contributed to and amplified wartime inequities. </p>
<p>Based on the commission’s recommendations, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/100/statute/STATUTE-102/STATUTE-102-Pg903.pdf">Civil Liberties Act of 1988</a>, giving every living victim a formal presidential apology and $20,000. All told, <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Civil_Liberties_Act_of_1988/">82,219 people</a>
received redress.</p>
<p>The success of the redress movement, however, did not mark the end of political action. Takemura spoke about his wartime experiences in local high school history classes for several years before his death in 1997, recognizing that many young people were “completely ignorant” about the incarceration. </p>
<p>Survivors and their families, activists and scholars also remain vocal, and they continue to draw attention to the environmental dimensions of the Japanese American incarceration. Most years, they make pilgrimages to the former camp sites, some of which are administered by the National Park Service as national historic sites, landmarks and monuments. </p>
<p>As they speak about the fragility of civil rights, then and now, they gaze at the same lonely vistas as their forebears and feel the wind kick up the dust or the sun beat down on their faces. They experience, even for a brief moment, the isolation and devastation of exile and confinement. </p>
<p>Eighty years after Executive Order 9066, amid a sharp increase in <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/anti-asian-hate-crimes-342-203747678.html">Asian hate crimes</a>, the fight for justice remains as urgent as ever. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Connie Y. Chiang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When US President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, he caved to war hysteria and paved the way for the incarceration of Japanese Americans.Connie Y. Chiang, Professor of History and Environmental Studies, Bowdoin CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1669282021-09-03T13:43:23Z2021-09-03T13:43:23ZHow memories of Japanese American imprisonment during WWII guided the US response to 9/11<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418265/original/file-20210827-23066-3dx6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C1997%2C1203&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">On Sept. 17, 2001, Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta, left, met with President George W. Bush and others.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-meeting-with-transportation-secy-news-photo/50369139">Greg Mathieson/Mai/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As soon as Islamic extremists were identified as having carried out four deadly, coordinated attacks on U.S. soil in the early morning of Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta started hearing calls from the public to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH7rGPXGicM">ban Arab Americans and Muslims from all flights</a> – and even to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2001/12/dont-treat-innocent-people-like-criminals/378049/">round them up and detain them</a>.</p>
<p>In the chaotic hours and days following the attacks, Mineta did not yet know that his childhood incarceration by the federal government in the aftermath of Japan’s Pearl Harbor bombing nearly 60 years earlier would <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/norman-mineta-s-american-story-helped-u-s-apologize-incarceration-n1005406">be a crucial element in decisions</a> about how the George W. Bush administration responded to 9/11.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo of a group of people of different ages" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418270/original/file-20210827-4978-bpjqrd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mineta family was sent to a camp surrounded by barbed wire and guard towers near Cody, Wyoming. Pictured here with relatives and friends, Norman Mineta is in the front row, second from right, in the white shirt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://minetalegacyproject.com/timeline/">Mineta Family Archives, Heart Mountain Wyoming Foundation via Mineta Legacy Project</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Enduring the wartime hardships</h2>
<p>Earlier that spring, President Bush had invited Mineta and his wife, Deni, to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-ol-patt-morrison-norman-mineta-politics-20190508-htmlstory.html">spend time at Camp David</a>, the presidential retreat. One night after dinner, the president asked Mineta about his imprisonment during World War II. </p>
<p>For three hours, Mineta, an 11-term member of Congress who also had served as President Bill Clinton’s secretary of commerce, shared his experience of wartime detention and its effects on him and his family. </p>
<p>On Feb. 19, 1942, President Franklin D. Roosevelt had issued an <a href="https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=74#">executive order authorizing the military to round up</a> and <a href="https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Executive_Order_9066/">remove</a> people of Japanese descent from their homes on the West Coast.
<a href="http://www.discovernikkei.org/en/journal/2012/5/16/norman-mineta/">Mineta, his parents, three sisters and a brother</a> were among the approximately 110,000 men, women and children of Japanese ancestry who were escorted by armed guards to hastily constructed government detention facilities in desolate inland locations.</p>
<p><a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Ndu8Fw5h4ITDsNGOj1c0E?si=MtkjEgbdQB2sw0ZMiYw7Yg&t=1656&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A14O3EsEGWQ4mK3XpKzsncP&dl_branch=1"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420489/original/file-20210910-22-cof6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Promotional image for podcast" width="100%"></a>
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<p>Without any charges brought against them, they were held <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/japanese-american-incarceration">under harsh conditions</a> for the duration of the war simply because they were the same race as the enemy.</p>
<p>Mineta’s parents, Kunisaku and Kane Mineta, and other first-generation immigrants from Japan were <a href="http://nikkeijin.densho.org/legacy/reference_ch1_01_issei_en.html">prohibited by federal law from becoming naturalized citizens</a>. After the declaration of war, they were classified as enemy aliens, no matter their loyalty to America, their adopted country. Their U.S.-born children, like young Norm, were included in the military detention orders as “<a href="https://densho.org/terminology/">non-aliens</a>” – the government’s term invented to avoid recognizing that they were natural-born U.S. citizens. </p>
<p>In the spring of 1942, before the family was rounded up by the military, Mineta’s father’s business license for his insurance agency was suspended, and the family bank accounts confiscated. The family scrambled to dispose of their household belongings since they could only take what they could carry. Ten-year-old Norm’s great heartbreak was having to give away his dog, Skippy. And yet, when he boarded a train with his family for an unknown destination, Mineta was <a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/barracks-and-boy-scouts-norman-minetas-story">wearing his Cub Scout uniform</a> to show his patriotism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white image of a desolate landscape with rows of buildings stretching into the distance and a mountain on the horizon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418274/original/file-20210827-22-1owzpvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Japanese Americans incarcerated at the Heart Mountain Relocation Center, where the Mineta family was sent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://news.lib.berkeley.edu/remember">Tom Parker, via University of California Berkeley</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Minetas arrived at the Santa Anita Assembly Center in Arcadia, California, in May 1942, and six months later were transferred to the Heart Mountain Relocation Center near Cody, Wyoming. During the war years, the Minetas and those incarcerated at nine other camps run by the government’s War Relocation Authority lived behind barbed wire, under searchlights, with armed soldiers in guard towers pointing guns at them.</p>
<h2>From San Jose to Washington</h2>
<p>In his foreword to my book, “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/When-Can-We-Go-Back-to-America/Susan-H-Kamei/9781481401449">When Can We Go Back to America?: Voices of Japanese American Incarceration during World War II</a>,” Mineta describes how he was raised to be positive about the privilege of being an American citizen, in spite of the crushing injustice of indefinite imprisonment without cause. </p>
<p>When the Mineta family was able to return to San Jose, California, following the end of the war, they put the challenges of their incarceration behind them and prioritized <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/18323">rebuilding their lives and standing in the community</a>. Mineta was elected student body president at San Jose High School in his senior year and graduated from the University of California, Berkeley in 1953. </p>
<p>After serving three years as an Army intelligence officer in the Korean War, he joined his father’s insurance business and got involved in local politics. In 1971, he became the mayor of San Jose, <a href="https://www.kpbs.org/news/2019/may/15/norman-mineta-and-his-legacy-american-story/">the first Asian American mayor of a major American city</a>. Then in 1974 he became the <a href="https://www.kpbs.org/news/2019/may/15/norman-mineta-and-his-legacy-american-story/">first Japanese American from outside of Hawaii to be elected to the U.S. House of Representatives</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to being the first Asian American to hold a presidential cabinet position, he was one of the few individuals to serve two presidents from different political parties; in Bush’s cabinet, he was the only Democrat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One man fastens an award ribbon around the neck of another man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418275/original/file-20210827-23-181y6gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In December 2006, President George W. Bush presented Norman Mineta with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431371">Eric Draper, via National Archives and Records Administration</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Changing the course of history</h2>
<p>The day after the 9/11 attacks, Secretary Mineta was at the White House in a meeting with the president, Cabinet members and Democratic and Republican congressional leaders. The discussion turned to the concerns of Arab Americans, Muslims and those from Middle Eastern countries over the growing demands reported in the media that they be placed in detention facilities.</p>
<p>Mineta later recalled the president saying, “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH7rGPXGicM">We want to make sure that what happened to Norm in 1942 doesn’t happen today</a>.” </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VH7rGPXGicM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Norman Mineta remembers the initial response to 9/11, from the public and from President George W. Bush.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bush later explained: “One of the important things about Norm’s experience is that sometimes we lose our soul as a nation. The notion of ‘all equal under God’ sometimes disappears. And 9/11 certainly challenged that premise. So right after 9/11, I was deeply concerned that our country would lose its way and treat people who may not worship like their neighbor as non-citizens. So, I went to a mosque. And in some ways, Norm’s example inspired me. In other words, <a href="https://www.kpbs.org/news/2019/may/15/norman-mineta-and-his-legacy-american-story/">I didn’t want our country to do to others what had happened to Norm</a>.”</p>
<p>At Mineta’s direction, on Sept. 21, 2001, the Department of Transportation emailed major airlines and aviation associations cautioning against <a href="https://theconversation.com/measuring-racial-profiling-why-its-hard-to-tell-where-police-are-treating-minorities-unfairly-105455">racial profiling</a> or targeting or otherwise discriminating against passengers who appeared to be Middle Eastern, Muslim or both. The message reminded the airlines that “<a href="https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/20010921.pdf">not only is it wrong, but it is also illegal</a> to discriminate against people based on their race, ethnicity, or religion.” It said the department would be on the lookout to ensure that airport security measures were not unlawfully discriminatory. </p>
<p>Five years later, in December 2006, Bush presented Mineta with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the country’s highest civil honor, <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/12/20061215-1.html">paying tribute to Mineta’s lifetime of public service</a>. While the government of the 32nd U.S. president would not acknowledge Mineta as a citizen, the 43rd president called him a patriot and “an example of leadership, devotion to duty and personal character” to his fellow citizens.</p>
<p>In 2019, Mineta reflected on how his childhood experience, and the events of 9/11, taught him about how vulnerable U.S. civilians are to being rounded up and detained when the nation is under threat: “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-ol-patt-morrison-norman-mineta-politics-20190508-htmlstory.html">You think it won’t happen again? Yeah, it can</a>.”</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166928/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan H. Kamei is a member of the Japanese American Citizens League and the Japanese American National Museum. She worked with Secretary Norman Y. Mineta in the campaign for Japanese American redress and he authored the foreword for her book "When Can We Go Back to America? Voices of Japanese American Incarceration during World War II" (Simon & Schuster 2021).</span></em></p>In the wake of 9/11, some called for rounding up whole groups of people viewed as potential threats to the nation. But Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta knew the U.S. had done that before.Susan H. Kamei, Lecturer in History; Managing Director of the Spatial Sciences Institute, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1623142021-06-23T12:24:37Z2021-06-23T12:24:37ZBiden’s goal to permanently boost support for families echoes a failed Nixon proposal from 50 years ago – will it take off this time?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407716/original/file-20210622-13-17ffxw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Raising children strains most household budgets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-escorting-young-female-students-from-school-to-home-in-news-photo/1084632220">Universal Images Group Editorial/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In July 2021, households with up to <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-treasury-announce-families-of-88-percent-of-children-in-the-us-to-automatically-receive-monthly-payment-of-refundable-child-tax-credit">88% of all U.S. children</a> will get their first of six no-strings-attached monthly payment from the federal government.</p>
<p>The money comes from a temporary expansion of the <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-child-tax-credits">child tax credit</a> in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/millions-of-american-parents-will-soon-get-a-monthly-allowance-4-questions-answered-156834">Biden administration’s US$1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package</a> enacted in March. For one year only, the government has increased the credit from $2,000 for children until they turn 17 to $3,600 for every child under 6 and $3,000 for those ages 6 through 17. It is also making this benefit available to low-income families without any other income and changing the way this money is dispatched.</p>
<p>Families will get monthly payments of either $300 or $250 per child from the Internal Revenue Service through the end of 2021, with the balance distributed at tax time in 2022.</p>
<p>For the first time in U.S. history, the government is establishing an <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/family%20allowance">allowance for families with children</a>, ending the country’s status as an <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/PF1_3_Family_Cash_Benefits.pdf">outlier among industrialized nations</a> in lacking such a benefit. But as a longtime scholar of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Leslie-Lenkowsky">welfare policy and civic engagement</a>, who spent years <a href="https://legacy.npr.org/programs/npc/2002/020827.llenkowsky.html">working in the government and think tanks</a> studying controversies over earlier efforts to assist families in similar ways, I question whether the Biden administration will succeed at its <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/11/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-child-tax-credit-awareness-day-and-releases-guidance-for-unprecedented-american-rescue-plan-investments-to-support-parents-and-healthy-child-dev/">goal of making this a long-term policy</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Biden, waving while standing with Vice President Harris, Sen. Schumer and Rep. Pelosi" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407679/original/file-20210622-16-gvrlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Biden signed into law a COVID-19 relief package on March 12, 2021, which included government payments for most U.S. families with children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-with-vice-president-kamala-harris-news-photo/1231671666">Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Diverging paths</h2>
<p>The rationale behind <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/04/12/designing-a-universal-child-allowance-who-can-claim-which-kids/">these allowances</a> is easy to understand.</p>
<p>In theory, <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/116a74107013f26982ef953073e5d5ca/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1817076">workers in an efficient economy should earn what their labor is worth</a>. How many children or other dependents they have to support should not matter to their employers.</p>
<p>All countries also have a collective interest in the well-being of families, such as ensuring enough future doctors, soldiers and other kinds of employees enter the workforce. By subsidizing the costs of raising children, governments or charities can help foot the bill for what a market economy fails to pay for through wages and benefits.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/family-allowances">Beginning in late 19th-century France</a>, where the population had been depleted by a series of wars, both public and private funds sprang up to assist families. Those payments were typically small, but available to all households with children. In the case of privately run plans, benefits would support members of the sponsoring organizations. As the cost of social programs mounted in France and elsewhere during the 20th century, governments started to restrict eligibility to lower-income families.</p>
<p>The United States took a different path.</p>
<p>Initially many states made “<a href="http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/845.html">mother’s pension</a>” assistance payments in the early 20th century, which were limited to the families who needed it. </p>
<p>The federal government began to offer a similar kind of aid when the Social Security Act of 1935, the cornerstone of American social policy, launched <a href="https://socialwelfare.library.vcu.edu/public-welfare/aid-to-dependent-children-the-legal-history/">Aid to Dependent Children</a>. This national program made federal funds available to match state spending help children in households without working parents.</p>
<p>In time, as other parts of the Social Security Act, such as <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment-insurance.asp">unemployment insurance</a>, became more comprehensive and generous, government officials and politicians expected fewer families to require this assistance. They believed the program would eventually “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00220612.1972.10671920">wither away</a>.”</p>
<p>That did not happen.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="FDR and his family, in 1935" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=665&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=665&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407677/original/file-20210622-17-16ef3n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=665&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Early in his presidency, Franklin D. Roosevelt, second from right and surrounded by members of his family, established a welfare program for Americans with children facing economic hardship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FDRAndFamily1935/6e9f1e139dd8448082265f15bafdbb48/photo">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ending AFDC</h2>
<p>By the 1960s, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, as it was then called, had become one of the nation’s most controversial social programs.</p>
<p>In times when jobs were plentiful and wages were rising, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/144689">more households were seeking assistance</a> from it. Moreover, a growing share of these families were needy not because of the death or unemployment of the principal breadwinner, but because they were <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3004035">headed by single mothers</a> who were separated from their husbands or had not married before having children. They were <a href="https://www.dol.gov/general/aboutdol/history/webid-moynihan">disproportionately African American</a> as well.</p>
<p>In 1969, President Richard M. Nixon proposed replacing the program with a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2095700">Family Assistance Plan</a>.” He was advised by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a Harvard University professor and future senator from New York who supervised my research when I was a doctoral student there.</p>
<p>A four-person household with children that had no other income, regardless of the number of parents present, would have received $1,600 a year – worth nearly $12,000 today, after adjusting for inflation – with the amount gradually declining as earnings increased. In addition, families remained eligible for other kinds of benefits, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-fdrs-food-stamps-to-trumps-harvest-boxes-the-history-of-helping-the-poor-get-enough-to-eat-91813">Food Stamps</a> and Medicaid.</p>
<p>Although it was the centerpiece of the Nixon administration’s domestic policy, his Family Assistance Plan <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30020737">died after a long and acrimonious battle in Congress</a>.</p>
<p>Liberals argued that the benefits proposed for households without any earned income were too small. Conservatives worried that the plan would weaken incentives for low-income people to get paid work. Groups claiming to speak for the poor opposed it, as did members of Congress from the mostly Southern states where a large share of the benefits would have flowed.</p>
<p>In 1996, with the support of then-Senator Joe Biden, Congress abolished Aid to Families with Dependent Children. In its place, it created a program called <a href="https://theconversation.com/welfare-as-we-know-it-now-6-questions-answered-81367">Temporary Assistance for Needy Families</a>, through which states could help low-income households with children for no more than five years. The aim of the legislation was to get the heads of households with children – including single mothers – into the labor force. It was supposed to “<a href="https://www.history.com/news/clinton-1990s-welfare-reform-facts">end welfare as we know it</a>,” as President Bill Clinton said.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Nixon, right, speak with Daniel Patrick Moynihan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407676/original/file-20210622-22-1tpzgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Richard Nixon, center, accompanied by Daniel Patrick Moynihan – a member of his Cabinet who wanted most low-income American families with children to get government payments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PresidentNixonandDanielPMoynihan/4149e2404320492b8324e08952f377d0/photo">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will it last more than a year?</h2>
<p>Today, somewhat ironically, the Biden administration has put forth – and Congress has enacted – a program very similar to the <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/nixons-good-deed/oclc/464030709">Nixon administration’s Family Assistance Plan</a>.</p>
<p>The chief difference is that the value of the child tax credit will be <a href="https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/602431/child-tax-credit-2021-who-gets-3600-will-i-get-monthly-payments-and-other-faqs">phased out for families who earn high incomes</a>. That threshold is set at $112,500 for single parents and $150,000 for married couples. In contrast, <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/450d63c4854ed3bf9a909d6552bc13a0/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1817197">Nixon’s proposed allowances were</a> mainly intended for poor and working-class families with kids.</p>
<p>When Congress begins considering extending the measure to 2025, as the Biden administration wants, I expect to see the same concerns that derailed the Nixon administration’s similar proposal. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/free-money-can-make-life-worse-11624313507">Robert Doar</a>, president of the American Enterprise Institute, his colleague <a href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-conservative-case-against-child-allowances">Scott Winship</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/547750-gop-lawmakers-raise-concerns-about-child-tax-credit-expansion">other conservatives</a> have already questioned whether more generous benefits for families could reduce incentives for parents to earn a living.</p>
<p>Some economists predict that the expanded child tax credit, combined with other measures, <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/103794/2021-poverty-projections-assessing-four-american-rescue-plan-policies_0_0.pdf">will help reduce the child poverty rate</a>. And yet many advocates on behalf of low-income Americans are <a href="https://www.clasp.org/blog/biden-s-child-tax-credit-proposal-would-help-lowest-income-families">wondering whether Biden’s new proposal goes far enough</a> because it would last only through 2025. Like many Democrats in Congress, <a href="https://www.bread.org/library/fact-sheet-permanently-expand-child-tax-credit-reduce-child-hunger">they want it</a> to become a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/politics/house-democrats-child-tax-credit-biden-recovery-plan/index.html">permanent feature of the safety net</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>To be sure, even with the 2021 expansion, the child tax credit’s impact will be limited. For example, a single-parent family with three very young children and no income will get $10,800 a year in benefits. Adjusted for inflation, that amounts to a little less money than Nixon proposed distributing to U.S. families with kids half a century ago.</p>
<p>A new chapter in an old debate over family policy is being written. Whether the outcome will be the same this time around will say a lot about how Americans now think about how the government should approach social policies – and society’s obligations to support families.</p>
<p><em>Article corrected to indicate that Moynihan represented New York in the Senate.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leslie Lenkowsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Starting in July 2021, most US families will get monthly payments from the IRS of either $250 or $300 per child under 18.Leslie Lenkowsky, Senior Counsellor and Professor Emeritus of Practice in Philanthropic Studies, Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, IUPUILicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581992021-04-19T12:27:57Z2021-04-19T12:27:57ZHas any US president ever served more than eight years?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392657/original/file-20210330-19-1co58pi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C76%2C5662%2C4431&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Franklin Delano Roosevelt, standing at center and facing left just above the eagle, takes the presidential oath of office for the third time in 1941.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/54078784@N08/6351043453">FDR Presidential Library and Museum via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Has there ever been a president who has served more than eight years? – Joseph, 8, New York, New York</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>The only president in American history to serve more than two four-year terms was <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/fdroosevelt">Franklin Delano Roosevelt</a>. He actually served three full terms as well as the first three months of a fourth term until his death on April 12, 1945.</p>
<p>The current limits on how long a person can be president come from the 22nd Amendment, added to the U.S. Constitution in 1951, which limits presidents to <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/">two successful presidential elections</a>. The amendment makes one exception: If a president takes office in the middle of someone else’s term – if the president dies, for example, and a vice president takes over and serves less than two years, that person can still run twice for their own election. But if the replacement president serves for more than two years of their predecessor’s term, they can only be elected to one more presidential term of their own.</p>
<p>FDR wasn’t breaking those rules, because the rules did not exist for the first 162 years of the nation’s history, from 1789 to 1951. Even so, in all that time, he was the only president who served more than two terms.</p>
<p>A total of 13 presidents have served exactly two full terms. Eight of them came before Roosevelt. <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/washington">George Washington</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jefferson">Thomas Jefferson</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/madison">James Madison</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/monroe">James Monroe</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jackson">Andrew Jackson</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/grant">Ulysses Grant</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/wilson">Woodrow Wilson</a> served their terms consecutively. <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/cleveland">Grover Cleveland</a> served two terms separated by the four-year term of <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bharrison">Benjamin Harrison</a>.</p>
<p>Some considered third terms: In 1880, four years after he finished out his second term, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198837404.003.0020">Grant pressed his candidacy once again</a> but failed to secure the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. And as Woodrow Wilson finished out his second term in 1920, <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/david-pietrusza/1920/9780786732135/">he also thought about running for a third term</a>, but ultimately withdrew from consideration.</p>
<p>Five more presidents – <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/eisenhower">Dwight Eisenhower</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/reagan">Ronald Reagan</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/clinton">Bill Clinton</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/gwbush">George W. Bush</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/obama">Barack Obama</a> – came after the 22nd Amendment was passed, so they had to leave and let someone else take over.</p>
<p>Four additional presidents – <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/roosevelt">Theodore Roosevelt</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/coolidge">Calvin Coolidge</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/truman">Harry Truman</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/lbjohnson">Lyndon Johnson</a> – completed the remaining terms of another president and were elected to their own full term immediately afterward. Under the rules of their times, each of them could have run for one more term. Several chose not to run for reelection; others ran and lost.</p>
<p>For example, Lyndon Johnson, who took over after John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963, initially tried for a second full term in 1968. But during the presidential primaries, he withdrew from consideration, in part because his <a href="https://www.history.com/news/lbj-exit-1968-presidential-race">handling of the war in Vietnam was unpopular</a> and threatened his chances.</p>
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<p>The precedent of serving just two terms was originally established by Washington, the nation’s first president. By all accounts, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/46099/his-excellency-by-joseph-j-ellis/">Washington would have easily been reelected</a> had he chosen to run a third time.</p>
<p>But he rejected public calls to run for a third term as president in 1796. Washington was concerned that by staying in office longer, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/46099/his-excellency-by-joseph-j-ellis/">he might send a message</a> that presidents should govern until death or illness drove them away, like a king. The American Revolution had just overthrown a monarchy. Washington thus wanted to lead by example in voluntarily leaving office after his second term, retiring to his Mount Vernon estate in Virginia.</p>
<p>After all, if two terms is good enough for George Washington, isn’t it good enough for everyone else?</p>
<hr>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Yalof does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only one president has done so – Franklin Delano Roosevelt – but others considered it, and even tried.David Yalof, Professor of Political Science, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1571022021-03-16T19:04:14Z2021-03-16T19:04:14ZJoe Biden understands the modern-day American presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389894/original/file-20210316-20-133p0x2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4848%2C3215&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Joe Biden walks to the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on March 9, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Growing up in the United States, I was not a big fan of Joe Biden. </p>
<p>I remember Biden at the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings in 1991, looking out-of-depth as his colleagues <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-joe-biden-hasnt-owned-up-to-about-anita-hill">berated and belittled</a> Anita Hill. I recall him during the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush years, holding forth in Senate hearings and casting about for middle ground that no one really wanted. </p>
<p>Biden was the face of establishment “meh,” the epitome of could-be-worse complacency. He vaguely sympathized with working people but <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-14/biden-s-nafta-vote-is-a-liability-in-the-rust-belt">went along</a> with the neoliberal mania for lower taxes, fewer regulations and “freer” markets. He assumed the Civil Rights era had put America’s demons to rest, and he never saw the dark forces gathering behind his predecessor, Donald Trump, until it was too late. </p>
<p>One year ago, during a bruising primary against <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02/joe-biden-last-hurrah-moderate-democrats.html">more progressive rivals</a>, Biden looked like a man history had left behind.</p>
<p>Recently, however, Biden has shown that he understands how the modern U.S. presidency works, both in terms of policy and the nation’s psyche.</p>
<h2>First among equals</h2>
<p>Early U.S. presidents mostly focused on America’s relations with non-Americans. The Constitution of 1787 assigned domestic policy to Congress, not to the president. Besides, the early United States was a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-World-of-the-Revolutionary-American-Republic-Land-Labor-and-the-Conflict/Shankman/p/book/9781138042872">chaotic and ill-defined</a> country, requiring most presidents to focus on enforcing federal law as best they could.</p>
<p>This changed for good under Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who held the office between 1933 and 1945. In the face of the Great Depression and fascism, FDR <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/16/democrats-socialism-fdr-roosevelt-227622/">moved away from his centrist impulses</a> and shifted U.S. social and economic policy well to the left. <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/new-deal">His New Deal</a> vastly expanded the executive branch of the U.S. government and made it far more relevant to most Americans.</p>
<p>To be sure, congressmen resisted, not just as rival Republicans but also as members of a separate and equal branch of government. So did governors who embraced the American tradition of local self-government over centralized rule.</p>
<p>The modern-day president lives with these duelling legacies. On one hand, he now sets the priorities for domestic as well as foreign affairs and wields enormous discretionary power over a sprawling federal government. On the other hand, he must work with allies in the House and Senate and respect the stubborn independence of each of the 50 states.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=309%2C7%2C4369%2C3011&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Biden speaks at a podium with the American flag behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=309%2C7%2C4369%2C3011&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389695/original/file-20210315-21-9bbjt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the COVID-19 relief package in the State Dining Room of the White House on March 15, 2021, in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Biden gets this.</p>
<p>He knows how and when to propose a bill and how and when to let others fight out the details. He understands how and when to frame an issue and how and when to let the arguments unfold on MSNBC and Fox News. </p>
<p>Most importantly, he understands that the dominant ideologies of the past 50 years, especially the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/93662/the-shock-doctrine-by-naomi-klein/9780676978018">neoliberal dictum</a> that markets know better than nations, simply won’t do in the face of a pitiless virus and the human wreckage it has left behind.</p>
<p>This is why Biden, the ultimate moderate, was able to pass the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, arguably <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/3/10/22320350/stimulus-bill-covid-19-passes-house">the biggest decision</a> made by the U.S. government since the the FDR era.</p>
<h2>Consoler-in-chief</h2>
<p>Besides making policy, the modern American president must console the people in times of trauma. This, too, traces back to FDR, who was the first president to address the people by radio. During his “fireside chats,” FDR spoke directly to a mass audience, trying to preserve some kind of emotional unity among the American people.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="FDR speaks in a black-and-white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389900/original/file-20210316-15-dwxvic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this April 1943 photo, FDR speaks in Washington. (AP Photo/Robert Clover, File)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Robert Clover)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Canadians may well pause here to ask why such unity is necessary. Why does America require such emotional togetherness? Why can’t its 330 million people just feel what they feel and still agree to get along? Why can’t they live together as a big and complex society, different but not divided? </p>
<p>It’s complicated. </p>
<p>But after studying American nationalism for many years, I think the reason is that Americans aren’t nearly as nation-minded as we long to be. Our nationalism isn’t obvious or intuitive. We don’t have a distinctive language or ancient culture. We don’t even have a clear or stable sense of any homeland, a common <a href="https://www.lexico.com/definition/patrie"><em>patrie</em></a> to which we can feel attached. </p>
<p>Much of American history and culture is about moving away from wherever we’re from to settle in the U.S., usually at the expense of Indigenous populations. (This is especially true for white settlers, although Black Americans also <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2019/03/06/black-migrations-black-history-slavery-freedom/2807813002/">sought freedom by heading west or north.</a>) <a href="https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/2020/11/01/frontier-culture-roots-and-persistence-%E2%80%9Crugged-individualism%E2%80%9D">Our cherished individualism and mythic frontier spirit</a> makes us isolated and alienated, even — or especially — from other Americans.</p>
<p>That’s why <em>someone</em> needs to address us when something terrible happens. They need to look us in the eye and share our distress, in effect telling us that we’re not as alone as we feel. </p>
<p>Here again, Biden understands his job. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-hope-and-history-rhyme-joe-biden-quotes-an-irish-poet-to-inspire-healing-in-america-149721">When 'hope and history rhyme': Joe Biden quotes an Irish poet to inspire healing in America</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Presidential behaviour</h2>
<p>In many ways, he became president the day before his inauguration, when he <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/america-votes/biden-marks-nation-s-covid-19-grief-before-inauguration-pomp-1.5273486">led a memorial</a> for those lost to the virus.</p>
<p>He did the same thing when the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/biden-to-mark-upcoming-500-000-u-s-covid-19-deaths-with-candle-lighting-ceremony-1.5318351">death toll passed 500,000</a>. And after recently signing the Rescue Plan into law, he talked about our shared hardships and common sadness. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Joe and Jill Biden look out at lights during a COVID-19 memorial." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389901/original/file-20210316-23-2vtw10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden and his wife Jill Biden look out at lights during a COVID-19 memorial, with lights placed around the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Jan. 19, 2021, the eve of his inauguration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“I carry a card in my pocket with the number of Americans who have died from COVID to date,” <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/transcript-joe-biden-delivers-remarks-year-anniversary-pandemic/story?id=76403134">he said</a>.</p>
<p>He’s not the most eloquent man. But over his long career, Biden learned a thing or two about making policy. And at some point over his long life, he found the strength to <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/25/joe-biden-2019-profile-grief-beau-car-accident-224178/">carry on through tragedy</a>, to walk through dark canyons in hope of dawn. </p>
<p>All of this makes him the right person to steer America out of its recent calamities and towards a better version of itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.M. Opal receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>Since his January inauguration, Joe Biden has demonstrated that he understands how the modern U.S. presidency works, both in terms of policy and the nation’s psyche.Jason Opal, Associate Professor of History and Chair, History and Classical Studies, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1558102021-02-26T20:14:50Z2021-02-26T20:14:50ZEnsuring the minimum wage keeps up with economic growth would be the best way to help workers and preserve FDR’s legacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386566/original/file-20210225-13-j7yss6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=186%2C102%2C4106%2C2755&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It may seem like a lot, but it's not the most important change in the bill.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MinimumWage/1e273d0f0be14fb2802f3e2f8683051b/photo?Query=minimum%20AND%20wage&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2614&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The US$1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill that the House <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-vote-biden-s-1-9-trillion-covid-relief-bill-n1258883">just passed</a> includes a <a href="https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/15-federal-minimum-wage-whos-for-it-whos-against-it-whats-next/">gradual increase in the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2025</a>. While <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/25/minimum-wage-coronavirus-relief-bill-471648">its chances in the Senate appear slim</a>, the proposal has brought national attention to the minimum wage, which has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/raising-the-federal-minimum-wage-to-15-by-2024-would-lift-pay-for-nearly-40-million-workers/">Supporters argue</a> a higher minimum wage would translate into higher incomes for millions of low-wage employees, such as restaurant waiters, retail salespeople and child care workers, and thereby lift a lot of people out of poverty. Opponents claim <a href="https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/e6663010-d095-4db8-9cb9-ae64da9fa165/the-case-against-a-higher-minimum-wage---may-1996.pdf">it would hurt businesses</a> and lead to a lot of job losses. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.felixkoenig.com">economist who studies labor markets and income inequality</a>, I believe both claims exaggerate the impact and miss a key point of what the minimum wage is meant to achieve. The current debate offers a perfect opportunity to restore the wage floor’s original purpose, as laid out by FDR over 70 years ago. </p>
<h2>Preventing employer abuses</h2>
<p>The federal minimum wage <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart">was first implemented</a> under the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938 at a very modest 25 cents an hour – <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">about $4.61 today</a> – and applied only to “employees engaged in interstate commerce or in the production of goods for interstate commerce.” Think manufacturing workers, miners and truck drivers. </p>
<p>It took 18 years before Congress raised it to a buck, and the wage was soon expanded to include lots of other workers, such as retail employees, gas station attendants and nursing home aides. The latest increase, in 2009, set the wage at $7.25. <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/faq">It now applies to almost all workers</a> except the self-empoyed, small-farm laborers, teenagers and those who receive tips, as well as a handful of other exempted groups.</p>
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<p>But the principal intention was not to provide a “living wage” sufficient to live on alone. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt <a href="https://www.history.com/news/minimum-wage-america-timeline">included it as part of his New Deal legislation</a> to prevent <a href="https://ogletree.com/insights/the-flsa-after-80-years-part-ii-eight-decades-of-the-fair-labor-standards-act/">the abuse of an employer’s inherent bargaining power over employees</a>. Setting a floor, even a low one, limited an employer’s ability to underpay workers, ensured a minimum measure of purchasing power and allowed for fair competition between businesses.</p>
<p>Although companies decried the 25-cent wage back in 1938, <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/radio-address-of-the-president/">FDR explained</a> how the new minimum was both deeply significant yet hardly the revolutionary act some portrayed it to be. </p>
<p>“Except perhaps for the Social Security Act, it is the most far-reaching, the most farsighted program for the benefit of workers ever adopted here or in any other country,” he told Americans in one of his popular fireside chats. “Do not let any calamity-howling executive with an income of $1,000 a day … tell you … that a wage of $11 a week is going to have a disastrous effect on all American industry.” </p>
<h2>Analyzing the impact on jobs</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, that hasn’t stopped some businesses and advocacy groups from <a href="https://www.aei.org/op-eds/a-15-minimum-wage-would-wreck-us-economic-recovery/">forecasting doom</a> every time Congress has considered lifting it. </p>
<p>Many economists, think tanks and policymakers have measured the impact of raising the minimum wage over the years. Most recently, the Congressional Budget Office analyzed the latest bill and <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56975">estimated that over 10 years it would cost about 1.4 million jobs</a> by driving up business’s labor costs, while lifting 900,000 people out of poverty. </p>
<p>On the first point, <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.1.3">past economic research is surprisingly clear</a>: Raising the minimum wage doesn’t seem to lead to many job losses. One of the most exhaustive studies of the employment effects <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz014">was a 2009 review of 138 U.S. state and federal minimum wage changes</a> over the past three decades. It found that the overall number of jobs essentially stayed unchanged after previous hikes. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the proposed reform will really affect workers in only a little over half the states in the near term. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1319/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22minimum+wage%22%5D%7D&r=1&s=3#toc-H96B11BD6C41D4D4A8284C3FC82676CAD">current proposal in the House version of the bill</a> would increase the minimum wage immediately to $9.50 and then incrementally by $1.50 each year until it hits $15 in 2025. It would also end the exemption for tipped employees.</p>
<p>Eight states representing about a third of the U.S. population <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/state-minimum-wage-chart.aspx">already require companies to pay workers at least $15</a> – or will within a few years – while a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080515/top-5-us-cities-highest-minimum-wage.asp">few major cities have even higher minimums</a>. A little over half of all states, representing just 41% of the U.S. population, set their wages at less than $9.50 an hour, with no plans for an increase. </p>
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<p>Also, many major retailers, including Walmart, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/why-amazon-really-raised-minimum-wage/">Amazon</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/25/971338686/costco-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-16-an-hour-this-isnt-altruism">Costco, beginning in March</a>, already pay their workers at least $15 an hour. </p>
<p>So could it lead to a loss of over a million jobs? Possibly, but this projection is likely overly pessimistic. The experience with similar recent reforms on average suggests that the impact is less severe.</p>
<h2>Incomes tell a similar story</h2>
<p>As for its impact on poverty and actual incomes, the evidence also doesn’t suggest lifting the wage will be as radical as its proponents might hope.</p>
<p>While the research cited above shows that minimum-wage hikes do increase incomes for poorer households – and the CBO’s estimate of 900,000 people lifted out of poverty is plausible – the gains aren’t that much compared with the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html">more than 30 million people currently in poverty</a>. For one thing, the minimum wage is <a href="https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/the-public-cost-of-a-low-federal-minimum-wage/">not the only source of income for many poorer families</a>. Consider a household that receives half its income in benefits, like <a href="https://www.benefits.gov/benefit/613">Temporary Aid for Needy Families</a>, and half from a minimum-wage job. Even a doubling of the minimum wage would lead to a total income increase of just 25%.</p>
<p>Even more importantly, many benefits depend on earnings and are reduced when that income increases. As a result, part of the wage increase will be offset by less income from benefits, weakening the overall impact further. </p>
<p>How much workers can potentially gain from the higher wage will depend significantly on where they live. Living costs <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/prices-inflation/regional-price-parities-state-and-metro-area#:%7E:text=Regional%20price%20parities%20(RPPs)%20measure,and%20New%20York%20(116.3)">vary substantially across the U.S.</a>, as much as 20% above or below the average, which means the same federal minimum wage is worth a lot more in low-cost states than in high-cost ones. For example, $15 buys 35% more food, gas and other stuff in Mississippi, the least expensive state, than in Hawaii, the most expensive.</p>
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<p>So in Mississippi, Arkansas and other low-cost states, the impact of the higher minimum wage will be substantial. But in many others that haven’t already raised their minimum wages to $15 but are costly to live in, like Hawaii and New Hampshire, the gains will be more modest.</p>
<h2>Giving workers a share of prosperity</h2>
<p>In other words, lifting the minimum wage to $15, on its own, isn’t that radical a change. </p>
<p>It’s not likely to lead to a large net reduction in jobs, and while it increases wages for low-paid workers, it is not a going to reduce poverty dramatically. Improving the minimum wage is nevertheless important for exactly the pro-competion reasons that FDR outlined. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>The bill does contain a very significant change in that direction and would make the minimum wage more effective in the long run. Currently the wage level changes only when Congress acts and passes new minimum-wage legislation, which is why the minimum wage now has a <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/congress-has-never-let-the-federal-minimum-wage-erode-for-this-long/#:%7E:text=Over%20the%20last%2010%20years,over%20%243%2C000%20in%20annual%20earnings.">buying power 20% lower than when it was last set in 2009</a>. The real value of the minimum wage peaked in the late 1960s, when it was worth around $11 in today’s dollars.</p>
<p>The House legislation would index it to median hourly wages, which means it wouldn’t require a political consensus to increase it. It would just happen, automatically, every year beginning once it reaches $15 in 2025.</p>
<p>Similar nonpolitical decisions about minimum-wage levels are common in other high-income countries, such as the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/low-pay-commission#:%7E:text=The%20Low%20Pay%20Commission%20is,Business%2C%20Energy%20%26%20Industrial%20Strategy.">U.K.</a> and <a href="https://en.dgb.de/fields-of-work/the-minimum-wage-in-germany">Germany</a>, reducing partisan tensions around the issue.</p>
<p>I would make one change, however. Since the purpose of a minimum wage is to prevent employers from underpaying workers and to ensure that wages grow in line with the value workers bring to companies, I believe it makes more sense to index it to changes in productivity. This would ensure that the benefits of economic growth – including gains from increased automation – <a href="https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/">are shared more evenly</a> with workers. </p>
<p>While Democrats’ narrow control of the Senate means it’s unlikely a $15 minimum wage will become law anytime soon, a <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/what-if-dems-raised-minimum-wage-not-15-hour-n1258611">less generous compromise, such as $11</a>, is still a possibility. Whatever the compromise on the headline number, I mainly hope Congress can agree to keep the automatic adjustment in there. That way the minimum wage could better serve its intended purpose of giving workers more bargaining power with their employers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155810/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felix Koenig does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal minimum wage’s purchasing power has rarely been lower since it created in 1938 as part of the New Deal.Felix Koenig, Assistant Professor of Economics, Carnegie Mellon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1547822021-02-10T13:15:54Z2021-02-10T13:15:54ZLiberals in Congress and the White House have faced a conservative Supreme Court before<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383337/original/file-20210209-19-1pl7tt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C8%2C2991%2C2115&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the U.S. Supreme Court visit President Franklin D. Roosevelt at the White House in 1934.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupremeCourtCallsOnFDR1934/87c2a2da5c274849955dcee8814253ae/photo">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With control of the White House and both houses of Congress, Democrats are looking to make major changes in government initiatives – including on <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/27/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-executive-actions-to-tackle-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad-create-jobs-and-restore-scientific-integrity-across-federal-government/">climate change</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/08/biden-immigration-refugee-policy-family-separation-latin-america/">immigration</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/miguel-cardona-confirmation-hearing/2021/02/03/21d65be8-665c-11eb-8468-21bc48f07fe5_story.html">education</a>. </p>
<p>But many of those ideas <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-disputes-between-congress-and-the-white-house-so-often-end-up-in-court-150333">may end up in court</a> – where they will face a Supreme Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-a-6-3-supreme-court-would-be-different-146558">dominated by conservatives</a>.</p>
<p>Donald Trump’s appointments of Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett make the Supreme Court <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/26/politics/supreme-court-conservative/index.html">more conservative</a> than it has been at any time since the 1930s, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president. Many court watchers expect that the current court’s decisions will lean much further to the right than Congress, the president and public opinion do. </p>
<p>Fearing a clash between the branches, some have even suggested that President Joe Biden consider <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/biden-amy-coney-barrett-scotus-confirmation-election-trump-pack-the-courts-b1052731.html">adding justices to the court</a> – as Roosevelt considered but ultimately didn’t pursue – to prevent key legislation from being struck down.</p>
<p>As scholars of U.S. legal history know, the court is often less insulated from politics than many people assume. Roosevelt’s threat to pack the courts, and what happened next, illustrate the pressures the Supreme Court faces to limit how far it strays from the other branches and from public opinion. </p>
<h2>The Lochner era</h2>
<p>Most Americans today are not accustomed to a right-leaning Supreme Court. Instead, they have viewed the judicial branch as a reliable – or lamentable – champion of liberal values. That dates back to the 1950s and 1960s, when the court, led by Chief Justice Earl Warren, made a series of <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/the-warren-court-4706521">landmark liberal rulings</a> generally expanding civil rights on issues from school desegregation to criminal defendants’ rights.</p>
<p>But the liberalism of the Warren court was itself a major shift. </p>
<p>From the late 19th century through to the 1930s, federal courts, including the Supreme Court, were generally considered to be the most conservative branch of the federal government, especially on economic issues. The courts championed limited government and broad freedom for corporations.</p>
<p>That period of pro-business jurisprudence came to be known among legal scholars as the “Lochner era,” named for the 1905 case of <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/198us45">Lochner v. New York</a>. </p>
<p>In that case, the Supreme Court struck down a New York law that, to protect employees, had regulated working conditions in bakeries. The majority of the justices held that the law violated bakeshop owners’ liberty to contract with their employees as they wished.</p>
<p>The court also continued to limit <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/commerce_clause">Congress’ power to regulate interstate commerce</a> to a narrow range of economic activity that excluded most manufacturing and services.</p>
<h2>The New Deal and the court</h2>
<p>In 1933, Roosevelt came to power with a strong mandate to tackle the Great Depression. He quickly established several new government agencies, reformed financial regulations and sought to regulate business in unprecedented ways. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/National-Industrial-Recovery-Act">National Industrial Recovery Act</a>, for instance, called for industrywide codes of fair competition that set minimum wages, prices, maximum working hours, production quotas and regulations for the process of selling goods. Although Congress saw the need for such a transformative piece of legislation, it was <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/295us495">challenged in the courts</a> by a poultry company that had been charged with violating a new code governing the poultry industry. Schechter Poultry’s violations included selling chickens on an individual basis and selling them to nonlicensed purchasers. The right-wing majority on the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Schechter and struck down key parts of the NIRA, drawing in part on its restrictive understanding of the commerce clause. </p>
<p>In this and other cases during Roosevelt’s first term, the Supreme Court demonstrated a growing divergence from the other branches and public opinion. The public had expressed its hunger for strong and far-reaching economic legislation by electing New Deal Democrats to Congress and the presidency. But unelected lifetime appointees on the court held onto a more conservative understanding of the scope of governmental power.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Franklin D. Roosevelt addresses the nation in 1936" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383349/original/file-20210209-17-385f14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Franklin D. Roosevelt, seen here defending the New Deal before Congress in 1936, won a landslide reelection that year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FDRDefendsNewDeal1936/661166dfb7564ee8ad46580011304988/photo">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A crucial shift</h2>
<p>When Roosevelt was reelected in a landslide in 1936, he proposed a bill to <a href="https://www.history.com/news/franklin-roosevelt-tried-packing-supreme-court">reform the federal judiciary</a> in an attempt to stop the Supreme Court’s obstruction of his policy initiatives.</p>
<p>This bill included what became known as his “<a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/roosevelt-announces-court-packing-plan">court-packing plan</a>,” which would have potentially allowed Roosevelt to appoint six more justices, tilting the majority in his favor. </p>
<p>The Constitution <a href="https://theconversation.com/packing-the-court-amid-national-crises-lincoln-and-his-republicans-remade-the-supreme-court-to-fit-their-agenda-147139">doesn’t prohibit expanding the court</a>, but even Roosevelt’s supporters were wary, so the eventual bill was passed without that provision. </p>
<p>As the bill was being debated in Congress, court-packing became less urgent to Roosevelt and his supporters because a change occurred within the Supreme Court itself. Nobody died, but someone switched sides. Associate Justice Owen Roberts had previously voted with the right-wing opponents to the New Deal, but in 1937 he <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/300us379">joined the more liberal justices</a> to uphold a minimum-wage law in the state of Washington.</p>
<p>From that point on, the court expanded its interpretation of the commerce clause to give Congress much broader powers to regulate the economy.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-democrats-achieve-by-threatening-to-pack-the-supreme-court">Some commentators</a> claim that Justice Owen Roberts shifted his opinion in direct response to Roosevelt’s threat to pack the Supreme Court, seeking to avoid executive and congressional interference in the judicial branch and therefore preserve its apparent independence. </p>
<p>But Owen Roberts actually <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/franklin-roosevelt-and-the-great-constitutional-war-the-court-packing-crisis-of-1937/oclc/49355855">had decided his position</a> in that case before Roosevelt publicly proposed the judicial reform bill. </p>
<p>Perhaps Owen Roberts already suspected that a court-packing plan, or something like it, was on the horizon when he decided to shift his position. But he might have been sufficiently concerned about the court’s departure from public opinion and the other branches even without such a threat. </p>
<p>When the court diverges drastically from the political mainstream, <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2012/06/john-roberts-broke-with-conservatives-to-preserve-the-supreme-courts-legitimacy.html">the public views it as less legitimate</a>. That is an outcome Supreme Court justices are usually eager to avoid. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chief Justice John Roberts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383343/original/file-20210209-13-laf5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chief Justice John Roberts has spoken out against politicization of the federal judiciary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpImpeachmentSenateTrial/72422d82817744ddbc02b67295f136a7/photo">AP Photo/Mark Humphrey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons for today</h2>
<p>There are perhaps more differences than similarities between Roosevelt’s confrontation with the court and the relationship between the Biden administration and the court today. For one thing, this court has not had a decadeslong rightward slant. Biden’s record is also as a centrist, and with a narrow majority in the Senate and a divided American public, he may not seek as transformative an agenda as Roosevelt did.</p>
<p>But the lesson from the 1930s remains: It is difficult for the Supreme Court to sustain a drastic divergence from other branches or public opinion without its legitimacy coming into question. To maintain the reputation of the institution, Supreme Court justices often limit their own divergence from the political mainstream, whether or not the other branches explicitly threaten to interfere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154782/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Cane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US Supreme Court is often less insulated from partisan politics than many Americans assume.Lucy Cane, Visiting Teaching Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DenverLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1524672021-01-19T17:07:18Z2021-01-19T17:07:18ZWhat does the vice president do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377391/original/file-20210106-17-lpwkss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5991%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a top government job, but what does being vice president mean?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakHarris/56ef84b8246447418d250b158f225185/photo">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/harris-makes-history-first-female-black-south-asian-american-vp-n1246916">Kamala Harris</a> will become vice president of the United States – the first woman, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first person of South Asian descent, and the first African American</a> to do so. Harris will also become the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kamala-harris-on-being-a-graduate-from-a-historically-black-college-this-is-what-these-institutions-were-really-built-for-they-were-built-for-this-moment-11597258044">first</a> vice president to have graduated from a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/historically-black-colleges-and-universities">historically black college or university</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these achievements is significant in its own right. However, the vice presidency itself has traditionally been a relatively insignificant position, though the office has become more influential in recent years.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times. Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Normally, ties are rare, but the vice president’s power to break them will likely become relevant to Harris as Democrats, and independents who caucus with Democrats, are expected to control only 50 of the 100 Senate seats.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.” Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents – like presidents – can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”</p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around for the president to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">need a replacement</a>, vice presidents are really obligated only to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tie-breaking vote</a>. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The evolution of the vice presidency</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">the vice president should be more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">likely heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, kept <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">the atomic bomb</a> a secret from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Many vice presidents since Mondale have often offered points of view that didn’t align with that of the president. Bill Clinton and Al Gore, for instance, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/11/clinton200711">disagreed</a> over the amount of power and influence entrusted to first lady Hillary Clinton; they also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/20/us/once-close-to-clinton-gore-keeps-a-distance.html">disagreed</a> over the handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2010/11/03/131035736/bush-considered-dropping-cheney-from-ticket-in-04">disagreed</a>, at times, over Iraq, as well as the use and nonuse of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/23/dick-cheney-george-bush-libby-pardon">presidential pardons</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, Mike Pence has proved to be a <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/0826/Last-man-standing-How-Pence-s-loyalty-helped-him-survive">loyal ally</a> to a president who has a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/">track record</a> of being unwilling to listen to dissent.</p>
<p>In the wake of the Jan. 6 <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-it-a-coup-no-but-siege-on-us-capitol-was-the-election-violence-of-a-fragile-democracy-152803">insurrection</a>, Democrats <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/533112-first-gop-lawmaker-calls-for-invoking-25th-amendment-to-remove-trump">and even a few Republicans</a> called on Pence to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-25th-amendment-work-and-can-it-be-used-to-remove-trump-from-office-after-us-capitol-attack-152869">remove Trump from office</a> by invoking the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">25th Amendment</a>. Pence ultimately <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/us/politics/pence-opposes-invoking-25th-amendment.html">avoided</a> taking <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/politics/trump-pence-25th-amendment/index.html">such action</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vice President Mike Pence presides over the joint session of Congress reviewing Electoral College votes on Jan. 6, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One key job of the vice president involves presiding over the process of counting Electoral College votes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-mike-pence-presides-over-a-joint-session-of-news-photo/1230451359">Saul Loeb/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Following Mondale’s model, when Joe Biden agreed to be Barack Obama’s running mate, he said that he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions where being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. </p>
<p>When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.” </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>As Harris begins her trailblazing term as a vice president of many firsts, she has an opportunity to either follow the past as a vice president who is largely ignored, to follow Pence as a deferential foot soldier, or to pick up Mondale’s mantle by making sure that the president isn’t shielded from points of view that he should hear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The vice president may be second in line for the most powerful job in the nation, but there isn’t necessarily a lot to do besides wait – unless the president wants another adviser.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484132020-11-03T13:29:35Z2020-11-03T13:29:35ZElection night has been a big media event since electric lights first announced the winner in 1892<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366876/original/file-20201101-19-11t9jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2992%2C2350&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Journalists, like these Associated Press staffers, have always worked hard to report election results quickly – and accurately.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APStaffNY/d1576168a56d43f2b06bc3b2e1f6cb48/photo">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As election night approaches, Americans will turn to their televisions, computers and smartphones to watch results come in for local, state and national races. Over the years, news coverage of winners and losers has become must-watch programming – even if it is, as longtime NBC election-coverage producer Reuven Frank put it in 1991, “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/out-of-thin-air-an-insiders-history-of-network-news/oclc/1150953097">a TV show about adding</a>.”</p>
<p>The main goal of journalists on election night was – and is – to be the first to correctly declare the winner. It’s an attitude driven by the public’s interest in quick results, supercharged by journalistic competition.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xmfzsucAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I</a> have been <a href="https://mediaschool.indiana.edu/people/profile.html?p=mtconway">studying journalism history</a> for more than 20 years and before that worked in newsrooms on election night for almost as long. Through experience and research, I know the rush to announce a winner didn’t start with the internet – or television or radio, for that matter. </p>
<p>The public, especially the sector deeply interested in politics, has always wanted to know the results as soon as possible. Another standard of election night, at least in the past century, is that the journalists announce a winner in the presidential race well before all the votes are counted – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-formally-declares-the-winner-of-the-us-presidential-election-145212">weeks before the results are formally certified</a>. </p>
<p>Election night 2020 may be very different.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd in Chicago" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366516/original/file-20201029-21-1y5cr18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1920, a crowd gathered in downtown Chicago to watch election returns projected on the large screen in the rear of this photograph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-crowd-watching-election-returns-on-the-night-at-news-photo/567441627">Chicago Sun-Times/Chicago Daily News collection/Chicago History Museum/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The spectacle of election night</h2>
<p>Starting in the late 1800s and continuing well into the next century, New York newspapers used a vast array of floodlights, magic lantern displays, stereopticon projections, and other dazzling visual pyrotechnics to announce results on election night. </p>
<p>In 1892, The New York Herald and the New York World newspapers, as well as the Chicago Herald, used a variety of lighting techniques to signify state and national results in incumbent President Benjamin Harrison’s race against former President Grover Cleveland. The New York Herald used a searchlight at Madison Square Garden and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/when-old-technologies-were-new-9780195063417">pointed it toward Brooklyn</a> to announce Cleveland’s victory. While these effects were designed to announce the winner before the next edition of the paper, the visual displays also drew crowds, turning election night into an <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/when-old-technologies-were-new-9780195063417">entertainment event</a>.</p>
<p>In 1904, when The New York Times moved its offices to a new location dubbed “Times Square,” the paper ramped up the election night spectacles and also added a ball drop on New Year’s Eve. In 1928, just in time for Herbert Hoover’s election, the Times unveiled the “zipper,” a lighted electronic sign with 4-foot-high scrolling letters that circled the building with the latest information. </p>
<p>Media historian Dale Cressman considered the quarter-million-dollar sign a combination of “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00947679.2018.12059181">newspaper promotion, competition, and the desire to be first</a>.” For more than 30 years, the Times zipper displayed election night results and other major news stories.</p>
<h2>Broadcasting the election results</h2>
<p>Eight years before the Times zipper, newspapers in Detroit and Pittsburgh, as well as in other locations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-broadcasting-transformed-politics-the-first-100-years-148143">took to the radio airwaves to announce</a> Warren <a href="https://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/14882.html">Harding’s election as president</a>. By 1932, the radio networks relayed Franklin D. Roosevelt’s victory over incumbent Herbert Hoover to the <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/now-the-news/9780231044035">more than 60% of American households</a> that had radios.</p>
<p>After World War II, television took over the role of getting preliminary election results out to the public as quickly as possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign and TV in Times Square on election night, 1948" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366518/original/file-20201029-19-k6jl62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman is visible on a large TV screen showing voting returns in Times Square on election night 1948.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elevated-night-view-of-people-gathered-in-times-square-news-photo/538789571">PhotoQuest/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the broadcast era, the television networks considered the political conventions and election nights as their most visible and important broadcasts every four years. They unveiled new equipment and visual imagery, graduating from writing numbers on a blackboard to lighted signs, and when color television finally caught on, using different colors to signify Republicans or Democrats. The networks also added computers and the latest prediction methods with the determination to announce the winner first, for ratings and bragging rights.</p>
<p>Since the networks were relying on prediction, and not the actual counted votes to determine the winner, the moment that came to symbolize the end of presidential election was the concession speech. That was especially true in such close elections as the one in 1948, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-miscalls-and-landslides-unforeseen-the-exceptional-catalog-of-polling-failure-146959">Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey</a>. In 1960 the telling moment came the day after Election Day, when Richard Nixon gave a concession speech, congratulating John F. Kennedy on his victory. </p>
<p>The networks used the speech to confirm their prediction, and the losing candidate used the speech to symbolize the peaceful acceptance of the public’s will, even though that act had no official role in determining the winner. </p>
<h2>Speedy results</h2>
<p>Throughout the rest of the 20th century, vote counting sped up while pollsters and other analysts came up with more intricate ways to predict the vote count. </p>
<p>This emphasis on speed without consequences culminated in 1980 when NBC News used exit polling to announce at 8:15 p.m. Eastern time that Ronald Reagan had defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter. NBC was roundly criticized for announcing a winner before all the nation’s polls had closed. Critics believed the network’s emphasis on being first <a href="http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1856081,00.html">may have hurt voter turnout on the West Coast</a>.</p>
<p>In 1990, the top broadcast and cable TV outlets teamed up with The Associated Press to create the Voter News Service. The idea was that the collective effort would share the costs – and the results – of vote analysis on election night. The analysis combined exit polling, actual vote totals, voter turnout and other data to predict who would win. It also offered the possibility that a wide range of media outlets would be in sync, in terms of timing and the results themselves, as they <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Voter-News-Service">announced predicted winners</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Al Gore and Bill Clinton watch TV" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366519/original/file-20201029-13-b38v6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On election night 1996, Vice President Al Gore and President Bill Clinton watch the results come in on television.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-bill-clinton-watches-election-returns-with-vice-news-photo/824298208">David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The confusion of 2000</h2>
<p>The presidential race of 2000 became the election night when predictions and traditions failed the networks and the American public. The television networks had conditioned Americans to believe projections were as reliable as vote totals, and that a concession speech signaled the end of the race. In addition, because the networks all relied on the same data, they couldn’t catch problems with the predictions.</p>
<p>Using Voter News Service data, the networks first announced Vice President Al Gore had won Florida, but then changed to report Texas Gov. George W. Bush had won Florida, and therefore the whole election. Gore even made a private concession call to Bush, before calling back to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/podcasts/the-daily/george-bush-al-gore-2000-election.html">rescind his concession</a>.</p>
<p>In reality, the Florida vote was too close to call. But in many people’s minds, Bush had been declared the winner on television. It took a Supreme Court decision and a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/podcasts/the-daily/george-bush-al-gore-2000-election.html">public Gore concession speech to cement Bush’s victory</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<h2>A focus on vote counting</h2>
<p>In 2002, the Voter News Service was disbanded, replaced the following year by the <a href="https://www.edisonresearch.com/election-polling/">National Election Pool</a>, which serves the same purpose. For 2020, The Associated Press and Fox News have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/2020-election-projections-explained/index.html">left that consortium</a> and will both be using the wire service’s own service, <a href="https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/ap-votecast/about">AP VoteCast</a>.</p>
<p>The results may take hours, if not <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html">days or even weeks</a>, to compile. That will make election night 2020 unlike any other in history. It’s my hope that the journalists and news organizations will resist their history of predicting a winner quickly, and instead focus on witnessing – and explaining – the process, however long it may take.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Conway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Journalists want to be first to tell the public who won, but the 2020 election night news frenzy may be very different from past years’ coverage.Mike Conway, Associate Professor of Journalism, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481262020-10-20T12:20:51Z2020-10-20T12:20:51ZHow the Supreme Court can maintain its legitimacy amid intensifying partisanship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363461/original/file-20201014-13-1tq1bb9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=161%2C98%2C5658%2C3799&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Kamala Harris speaks via video link during the second day of confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett on Oct. 13, 2020 in Washington, D.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate-sen-kamala-harris-news-photo/1229055793?adppopup=true">Patrick Semansky-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the first day of <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-and-mcconnells-mostly-white-male-judges-buck-30-year-trend-of-increasing-diversity-on-the-courts-146828">hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/13/kamala-harris-amy-coney-barrett-senate-hearing">vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris</a> framed the nomination as part of a plan to subvert democratic values. </p>
<p>The rushed nomination process goes against the wishes of “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/live-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-confirmation/2020/10/12/923027235/harris-republicans-defying-will-of-the-people-by-pushing-barrett-nomination">a clear majority of Americans</a>” who want Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat filled only after the new presidential term begins in January 2021, according to Harris. </p>
<p>Instead, Harris charged, Barrett’s supporters were “trying to bypass the will of the voters” and seeking to “have the Supreme Court do their dirty work” by undoing popular <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/health/obamacare-supreme-court-barrett-ginsburg.html">legislation like the Affordable Care Act</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.fdu.edu/profiles/bruce_peabody/">As I</a> have shown <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Politics-Judicial-Independence-Courts-Public/dp/0801897718">in my prior research</a>, this is the latest in a growing wave of criticism leveled by <a href="https://content.sciendo.com/view/journals/bjals/7/2/article-p237.xml?language=en">elected officials</a>, scholars and other commentators who question the legitimacy of the U.S. judiciary.</p>
<p>These skeptics say that controversial court decisions, a partisan judiciary and a broken process for appointing judges should be cured with moves such as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/22/packing-supreme-court/">packing the Supreme Court</a> with additional justices or <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/09/house-democrats-to-introduce-new-bill-for-supreme-court-term-limits/">imposing judicial term limits</a>.</p>
<p>Courts need the public’s support – their power is based on it. Lacking their own army or police force, courts rely on people’s faith in their authority and fairness to enforce their judgments. Without this, our independent judicary is in trouble.</p>
<h2>A benchmark of American politics</h2>
<p>These worries are not new or limited to one party. </p>
<p>In only their second decade of existence – from 1801, when Thomas Jefferson became president, to 1805, when Supreme Court Justice Samuel Chase was acquitted of impeachment charges – U.S. courts faced a crisis when <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/duel-federalist-and-republican-party/">Republicans aligned with President Jefferson</a> complained that the <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/152667/john-marshall-political-supreme-court-justice">Federalist Party was seeding the courts with its partisans</a>. </p>
<p>Jefferson believed Supreme Court Chief Justice John Marshall, appointed by Federalist stalwart John Adams, held <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/25/adams-jefferson-supreme-court-rbg-trump/">“anti-democratic” beliefs</a>. Jefferson planned to impeach and remove judges like Marshall and replace them with his own party appointments, an <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/studies-in-american-political-development/article/reconstructing-the-federal-judiciary-the-chase-impeachment-and-the-constitution/485F876B0D5BEE6B5DB53D6629133D84">effort that ultimately foundered</a>.</p>
<p>Clashes between federal courts and the party in power are baked into American politics. </p>
<p>As judicial scholar Charles Geyh has shown, presidents usually “<a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/169001/when_courts_and_congress_collide">install ideologically compatible judges</a>.” But during realigning elections, large blocks of voters switch their allegiance from one party to another. </p>
<p>This process sweeps out repudiated parties in Congress and the White House, but it can leave us with the prior administration’s “holdover” judges, who then get accused of being illegitimate and anti-democratic.</p>
<p>At the turn of the 19th century, populists and progressives attacked free market oriented and pro-business judges on such issues as <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/history-of-child-labor-in-the-united-states-part-2-the-reform-movement.htm">child labor</a> and worker’s rights.</p>
<p>More famously, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-franklin-roosevelt-clashed-with-the-supreme-court-and-lost-78497994/">Franklin Delano Roosevelt proposed his court-packing plan</a> after butting heads with a Supreme Court dominated by justices appointed by his predecessors who were skeptical of the New Deal. </p>
<p>It’s too early to say whether the U.S. is in the midst of an electoral realignment. But over the last four years, President Trump has seized his opportunity to shape the courts. </p>
<p>If Judge Barrett is successfully appointed, in one term, Trump will have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/15/how-trump-compares-with-other-recent-presidents-in-appointing-federal-judges/">filled more seats on the Supreme Court</a> than any president since Ronald Reagan. Given this influence, and the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-the-most-unpopular-president-since-ford-to-run-for-reelection/">president’s unpopularity</a>, it’s no surprise that many Democrats warn that the judiciary will be out of step with the rest of America.</p>
<h2>How courts can reinforce their standing</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/4732/supreme-court.aspx">recent polling finds an uptick</a> in the percentage of Americans who approve of “the way the Supreme Court is handling its job,” the general trend line shows a public that has, according to the FiveThirtyEight news site, “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-supreme-court-facing-a-legitimacy-crisis/">slowly become more disillusioned</a>” with the high court over the past three decades. </p>
<p>But should anyone care? Isn’t the very purpose of an independent judiciary to make its decisions with little regard for public opinion and what Alexander Hamilton called the “<a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed78.asp">ill humors in the society</a>”?</p>
<p>The truth is, the courts need public support. Judges depend upon national and local officials to uphold their opinions, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/us/same-sex-marriage-kentucky-kim-davis.html">clerks issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples</a>. Law enforcement officials are required by the Supreme Court to provide certain suspects with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/13/your-miranda-rights-are-50-years-old-today-heres-how-that-decision-has-aged/">Miranda warnings</a>.</p>
<p>And if the people on the losing end of court decisions believe judges are unfairly appointed and partisan, they may dismiss their judgments as illegitimate. That threatens the sense of unity and stability that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/01/robertss-rules/305559/">Chief Justice John Roberts has said</a> the judiciary must provide in our polarized age.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363723/original/file-20201015-23-1203k5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts and Anthony Kennedy arrive at the U.S. Capitol for Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony on Jan. 20, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-and-anthony-news-photo/632205166?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fortunately, research points to <a href="https://pages.wustl.edu/files/pages/imce/jlgibson/apsr1998.pdf">several ways courts can bolster their standing</a>, so that when they inevitably issue controversial decisions they can withstand the ensuing storm. </p>
<p>People, for example, are more likely to accept unfavorable judgments if they <a href="https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1254&context=ajacourtreview">experience procedural justice</a> – the fairness and transparency through which decisions are made. They may not like a case outcome, but they’ll go along with it if they approve of how the dispute was handled. </p>
<p>Courts can protect procedural justice and their legitimacy by making sure each party in a case has a chance to present its story and by emphasizing respect from not only judges but clerks and other court personnel. </p>
<p>Of course, these strategies aren’t as relevant for the millions of people who don’t have direct experience with our legal system. But judges can still reach these Americans by conveying the degree to which many decisions seem to uphold principles of law rather than giving vent to ideological beliefs. </p>
<p>Closely divided Supreme Court decisions like the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/11-393">2012 ruling upholding the Affordable Care Act</a>, or the more recent <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/june-medical-services-llc-v-russo/">June Medical Services v. Russo</a> case – which struck down a Louisiana law requiring abortion providers to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals – draw lots of attention. </p>
<p>But it turns out that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/06/28/those-5-4-decisions-on-the-supreme-court-9-0-is-far-more-common/">unanimous decisions on the Supreme Court</a> are far more common. Since 2000, approximately 36% of all cases were decided 9-0. During that same span, 19% were decided 5-4.</p>
<p>More bluntly, courts can continue to get support from ideological and partisan skeptics if these individuals can recognize victories along with their losses. </p>
<p>Recent decisions <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/15/863498848/supreme-court-delivers-major-victory-to-lgbtq-employees">upholding the civil rights of LGBTQ employees</a>, for example, may blunt liberal frustration over the court’s voting rights cases, such as <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/court-cases/shelby-county-v-holder">Shelby County v. Holder</a>, which significantly limited the reach of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.</p>
<p>In our closely divided and polarized era, the Supreme Court can maintain some of its legitimacy by continuing to issue what law professor Tara Leigh Grove calls “<a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/2019/06/the-supreme-courts-legitimacy-dilemma/">a mix of conservative and progressive</a> decisions in high-profile cases.” </p>
<p>None of this is easy.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Following these strategies requires courts to demonstrate both the expected legal expertise and also political awareness. They must write in the specialized language of the law while communicating to a broader public. </p>
<p>Judges and justices can steer clear of partisan voters and <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034">officials who increasingly see their opposition as enemies</a> and not mere political rivals. The alternative is to accept a picture of American courts that shows them as prizes for partisan capture rather than unique forums for resolving disputes and rendering justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Peabody does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though critics claim Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination jeopardizes the high court’s legitimacy, research shows there are ways the judiciary can bolster its standing and weather controversial decisions.Bruce Peabody, Professor of American Politics, Fairleigh Dickinson University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469592020-10-14T12:29:13Z2020-10-14T12:29:13ZEpic miscalls and landslides unforeseen: The exceptional catalog of polling failure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362805/original/file-20201011-21-tx638h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C57%2C4713%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wrong.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-harry-truman-holds-up-a-copy-of-the-chicago-daily-news-photo/143128720?adppopup=true">Underwood Archives/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year’s race: <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/108242/us-election-is-it-possible-polls-are-wrong">Could the polls be wrong</a>? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much.</p>
<p>That history tells of no greater polling surprise than what happened in 1948, when President Harry <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/509107-when-youre-leading-dont-talk-the-hazards-of-glide-path-campaigning">Truman defied the polls</a>, the pundits and the press to defeat Thomas E. Dewey, his heavily favored Republican foe.</p>
<p>Pollsters were certain Truman had no chance. One of them, Elmo Roper, was so confident of Dewey’s victory that he announced two months before the election he would release no further survey data unless a political miracle intervened. </p>
<p>Rival pollsters George Gallup and Archibald Crossley largely completed their poll-taking by mid-October – and missed a decisive shift in support to Truman in the campaign’s closing days.</p>
<p>As I point out in my latest book, “<a href="https://www.degruyter.com/california/view/title/592278">Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections</a>,” the <a href="https://www.deseret.com/1998/5/18/19380713/pollsters-still-learning-from-1948-debacle">misfire of 1948 was exceptional</a>. And that describes most polling failures in presidential elections: They tend to be exceptional, unlike previous polling errors. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Candidates Harry Truman and Thomas Dewey in a cartoon featuring many predictions of Dewey's win." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362809/original/file-20201011-13-c5wala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cartoon published two weeks before the 1948 election, in which Dewey was projected to win by a large margin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/306150">Clifford Kennedy Berryman, Artist/National Archives, Records of the U.S. Senate, 1789 - 2015</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No pattern</h2>
<p>When the polls go wrong, they almost always do so in some unanticipated way. Errors spring from no single template.</p>
<p>This variety helps explain why polling failure is so unpredictable and so jarring. The epic miscall of 1948 has never been duplicated in U.S. presidential elections – although the shock of Truman’s victory may have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/trump-repeats-truman-not-quite">rivaled by the profound surprise</a> that accompanied Donald Trump’s win in 2016.</p>
<p>Trump’s victory represented polling failure of another kind: Polls in 2016 were not so much in error nationally as they were in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html">states</a> such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. </p>
<p>If Hillary Clinton had carried those states, as polls had indicated, she would have won the electoral votes to become president. But errors in state-level polls upset national expectations, in part because those polls tended to include too few <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/21/trump-white-voters-support-418420">white voters without college degrees, a key Trump constituency</a> in 2016 and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/us/politics/trump-white-base-pennsylvania.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">this year</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton on election night 2016." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362806/original/file-20201011-17-qn2ala.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump in 2016 was unexpected and reflected that polls in 2016 were not so much in error nationally as they were in key states.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-democratic-us-presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton-news-photo/621959828?adppopup=true">Brendan Smialowski / AFP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Voters changing or making up their minds late in the campaign led in 1980 to another type of polling failure – the unforeseen landslide. Polls that year mostly signaled a close race between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. At campaign’s end, the race seemed <a href="https://swampland.time.com/2012/10/31/remembering-1980-are-the-polls-missing-something/">too close to call</a>. </p>
<p>Reagan won by nearly 10 percentage points. </p>
<h2>Failure has different faces</h2>
<p>Election polling is vulnerable to last-minute developments. </p>
<p>For logistical reasons, poll-taking may not be able to catch up with late-breaking revelations that disrupt the public’s perception of a campaign’s dynamic, such as the disclosures before the 2000 election about George W. Bush’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/03/us/2000-campaign-driving-offense-bush-acknowledges-arrest-for-drunken-driving-1976.html">drunken-driving conviction</a>. </p>
<p>In 1976, Bush was arrested in Maine and pleaded guilty to a DUI violation that he had never publicly revealed. A young television reporter in Maine pursued a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/time/2000/11/13/ride.html">tip</a> in 2000 and reported the details five days before the election. </p>
<p>As the 2000 campaign closed, most polls signaled Bush was ahead by a few percentage points. </p>
<p>In the end, Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-2000">but lost the Electoral College</a> in the disputed outcome of voting in Florida. Disclosures about Bush’s DUI conviction may have been enough to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/23/bush-gore-electoral-polls/">cost him a popular-vote victory</a>.</p>
<p>The 2000 outcome represented another variety of polling failure – pointing to the wrong winner in a close race. </p>
<p>It’s a class of failure that emerged 40 years earlier, in the election between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1971/05/01/archives/elmo-roper-pollster-is-dead-predicted-36-roosevelt-victory-adapted.html">Roper’s</a> final pre-election poll suggested a two-point win for Nixon. </p>
<p>As I note in “Lost in a Gallup,” after Kennedy’s razor-thin victory had become clear, Roper’s son and business partner, Burns, sent a memorandum to the company’s staff, declaring: “I’m not about to take any malarkey about having ‘picked the wrong man.’”</p>
<p>But that’s what the Roper poll had done. It pointed to the wrong winner.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Candidates Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy in a televised debate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362807/original/file-20201011-15-9girdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the 1960 presidential race, pollster Elmo Roper estimated that Richard Nixon, left, would win narrowly over John F. Kennedy. He was wrong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-vice-president-richard-nixon-and-democratic-news-photo/3231919?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Recalling the 1936 debacle</h2>
<p>Another type of polling failure is that of the venerable pollster who is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/president-landon-and-the-1936-literary-digest-poll/E360C38884D77AA8D71555E7AB6B822C">singularly and astonishingly in error</a> – as was the Literary Digest in its infamous mail-in survey of 1936. </p>
<p>The Digest was a weekly magazine whose massive mail-in polls had identified the winner in each of the three presidential elections since 1924. Some newspapers acclaimed the Digest’s mass-polling technique for its “uncanny” accuracy.</p>
<p>In 1936, the Digest employed the same methodology that had served it so well. After sending 10 million postcard ballots and tabulating the 2.3 million returned from around the country, the Digest reported that Republican Alf <a href="https://apnews.com/article/61180650de91bba046babcd198c0449f">Landon</a> was bound for a comfortable victory over President Franklin D. Roosevelt. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Landon ended up carrying two states – Maine and Vermont – and lost the popular vote by 24 percentage points. Roosevelt’s victory was one of the most lopsided in presidential election history. </p>
<p>That also was the year <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/george-gallup">Gallup</a>, Crossley and Elmo Roper initiated their election polls, which relied on smaller samples than the Digest. With varying degrees of accuracy, all three newcomers in 1936 signaled Roosevelt’s victory.</p>
<p>The Digest’s debacle offers an enduring reminder that the roots of polling failure run deep. The stunning miscall occurred at the dawn of modern survey research and introduced a nagging sense about polling’s potential to mislead. </p>
<p>After all, if the great election oracle of its time could err so spectacularly, why would other polls be immune to failure?</p>
<p>The answer: They weren’t, and aren’t, immune.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1474002020-10-02T16:42:40Z2020-10-02T16:42:40ZA brief history of presidents disclosing – or trying to hide – health problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361414/original/file-20201002-13-1t53w8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C40%2C5197%2C3494&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows speaks to reporters about President Trump's positive coronavirus test outside the White House on Oct. 2, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/white-house-chief-of-staff-mark-meadows-speaks-to-reporters-news-photo/1228846131?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump went directly to the public and announced via Twitter early on Oct. 2 that “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849">Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19</a>. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”</p>
<p>The president’s straightforward announcement was unlike many presidents in the past. My research has focused on how politicians dodge questions. I have co-authored an entry in the <a href="http://sk.sagepub.com/reference/encyclopedia-of-deception">Encyclopedia of Deception</a> with scholar <a href="http://com.miami.edu/profile/michael-beatty">Michael J. Beatty</a> about how rampant deception is when it comes to presidential health. </p>
<p>It’s one of the most common types of political deception perpetuated against journalists and the public. </p>
<p>And in a presidential campaign, public opinion polls have suggested that <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2016/most_want_to_see_clinton_trump_tax_returns_medical_records">voters want to know details</a> about the candidates’ health. </p>
<p>I will be watching with interest how the White House, the Trump campaign and the news media handle the president’s COVID-19. Here’s a roundup of how other U.S. leaders and their administrations have handled information about presidential health problems.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1311892190680014849"}"></div></p>
<h2>Lie early and often</h2>
<p>At a press briefing in 1893, President Grover Cleveland’s secretary of war told inquiring journalists that their speculations about the president having surgery were wrong. </p>
<p>The nation was in a recession, and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/07/06/137621988/a-yacht-a-mustache-how-a-president-hid-his-tumor">Cleveland feared</a> that his economic plan would be doomed if the public knew that his doctor thought he could have cancer. Cleveland had surgery secretly on a yacht, the tumor was removed, but the nation continued spiraling into an economic depression. </p>
<p>During President William McKinley’s second term in office, which began in 1901, his health plummeted. He had eye trouble. He was bedridden with the flu. And he was near death from pneumonia. Yet his spokesman tamped down media speculation, telling journalists that reports of the president being ill were “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&pg=PA17&lpg=PA17&dq=William+McKinley%E2%80%99s+eye+trouble+flu+foolish+stories+pneumonia&source=bl&ots=IhADBZCTkx&sig=nTih1z4yvvRkZbLKRyaGSq2DuQ4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiry9S02ozPAhWq7YMKHc3kDlgQ6AEIHjAB#v=onepage&q=William%20McKinley%E2%80%99s%20eye%20trouble%20flu%20foolish%20stories%20pneumonia&f=false">foolish stories</a>.”</p>
<p>When Woodrow Wilson became gravely ill from what was <a href="https://www.historynet.com/how-woodrow-wilsons-hidden-illness-left-america-with-no-president-for-over-a-year.htm">rumored to be syphilis</a>, his spokesman issued press statements that the president was recovering <a href="http://ahsl.arizona.edu/about/exhibits/presidents/wilson">from fatigue</a>.</p>
<p>For the entirety of his service to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Press Secretary Stephen Early tried to hide the president’s paralysis caused by polio by having the press snap photos of the president in ways that hid his wheelchair. Even after FDR died, Early released <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=A_liTKBNOR4C&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=Franklin+Delano+Roosevelt,+FDR+press+secretary+Stephen+Early+pronounced+organically+sound&source=bl&ots=lAqqswCF5r&sig=aK5HXgni0xqHZk3kRLFjckDan3E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjpiM-o3YzPAhWB5oMKHXcYBVoQ6AEIODAE#v=onepage&q=Franklin%20Delano%20Roosevelt%2C%20FDR%20press%20secretary%20Stephen%20Early%20pronounced%20organically%20sound&f=false">a statement</a> that “the president was given a thorough examination by seven or eight physicians” and “he was pronounced organically sound in every way.” </p>
<p>Dwight Eisenhower was hospitalized with a heart attack, but his press operation initially told reporters <a href="http://www.ozy.com/flashback/president-eisenhowers-14-billion-heart-attack/65157">he had an upset stomach</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="FDR in a wheelchair" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An unusual photo of FDR in a wheelchair – his press secretary tried to avoid images of the president in his wheelchair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-president-franklin-d-roosevelt-poses-with-his-dog-news-photo/137822922?adppopup=true">Margaret Suckley/PhotoQuest/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is even precedent for presidential staffers lying about their own health. </p>
<p>William Howard Taft’s press spokesman, Archie Butt, was sickened from stress and fatigue. He flew to Rome to escape and get rested. Rather than admit that he was exhausted – which would seem reasonable for a person working in such a high-stress position – he told the press corps that his trip was to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q=taft%20pope&f=false">meet with the pope</a>.</p>
<p>Sometimes presidents lie about medical conditions to distract from other, non-health issues. When John F. Kennedy was holding secret meetings dealing with the Soviet Union and the <a href="http://jfklibrary.tumblr.com/post/33959482484/october-20-1962-day-5-of-the-cuban-missile">Cuban Missile Crisis</a>, Press Secretary Pierre Salinger told reporters that the president’s schedule changes and lack of public appearances were due to a cold. He even released the president’s symptoms and temperature. </p>
<p>Perhaps proving that he wasn’t talented at deception, Salinger used the same cold excuse to explain Vice President Lyndon Johnson’s <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&pg=PA139&lpg=PA139&dq=salinger+Vice+President+Lyndon+Johnson+flight+from+Hawaii+to+the+White+House+at+the+same+time.&source=bl&ots=IhADBZDThy&sig=ndBfAN_AVOD69evAXLp-QcJd9os&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj56_aD3ozPAhWky4MKHeicB2EQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=salinger%20Vice%20President%20Lyndon%20Johnson%20flight%20from%20Hawaii%20to%20the%20White%20House%20at%20the%20same%20time.&f=false">impromptu flight</a> from Hawaii to the White House at the same time. The Washington Post’s editor suspected the colds were awfully coincidental, but Salinger refused to comment. </p>
<p>As the political public relations adage goes: <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/12/krauthammer_clintons_incapable_of_telling_the_truth_another_case_of_coverup_being_worse_than_the_crime.html">The cover-up is worse</a> than the crime. </p>
<h2>Trump, Nixon and candidate debates</h2>
<p>In 2016, both U.S. presidential candidates <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnn-panel-devolves-into-shoutfest-over-trumps-taxes-medical-records/">Donald Trump</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html">Hillary Clinton</a> were caught deceiving the public about their health. Each candidate <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-health-doctor-490836">accused the other</a> of lying about medical conditions.</p>
<p>Questions may now arise as to whether Trump gave a subpar performance in the debate because of his health, although presumably he and his wife and staff were tested for COVID-19 prior to the debate.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, it is worth noting that in the most famous televised debate in U.S. history, the <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/first-kennedy-nixon-debate">Sept. 26, 1960, Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon</a> showdown – after which many voters said they decided to vote for Kennedy – Nixon was ill and unrested. Nixon had been in the hospital a couple of weeks earlier and looked a little gaunt from having recently lost five pounds. </p>
<p>Nixon had been campaigning intensely and did not prepare for the debate. He held a campaign event that morning with the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners, and never met with his staff and didn’t even take their calls. Meanwhile, Kennedy had been fiercely preparing with his advisers at the Knickerbocker Hotel in Chicago.</p>
<p>Similarly, Trump had held several public events prior to the debate and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/politics/trump-debate-prep/index.html">did not spend time preparing in private</a> for it, as Biden did. </p>
<p>After an initial announcement with remarkable transparency, it remains to be seen whether Trump will continue in that vein or adopt the more traditional practices of presidents who were less than open about their health.</p>
<p><em>This story has been corrected to clarify that it was rumored that President Woodrow Wilson had syphilis.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-presidents-lying-about-their-health-65393">an article</a> originally published on September 13, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump was direct in announcing he had COVID-19. But presidents in the past have been very good at deceiving the public about the state of their health. Which direction will Trump go now?David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1316342020-09-17T11:28:45Z2020-09-17T11:28:45ZPresidential campaigns take flight in the age of the coronavirus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343620/original/file-20200624-132405-j0pk80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C53%2C2901%2C2196&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A crowd greets Sen. John F. Kennedy at Logan Airport in Boston on July 17, 1960, after he became the Democratic nominee for president.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-john-f-kennedy-exits-the-plane-at-logan-airport-in-news-photo/695691496?adppopup=true">John M. Hurley/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The coronavirus pandemic has reshaped the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign, limiting the number of rallies and in-person appearances of the candidates. </p>
<p>When candidates do venture out, a familiar form of campaign transportation, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/mccain090299.htm">the campaign bus</a>, is likely to remain grounded, as tight quarters make social distancing nearly impossible.</p>
<p>Until recently, candidates have relied primarily on social media to reach voters. But this medium and campaigning from home – or <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/david-shribman/2020/03/29/David-M-Shribman-Return-of-the-front-porch-campaign/stories/202003290024">from your front porch, as Warren Harding did in 1920</a> at the end of another pandemic – cannot sufficiently substitute for in-person contact with voters.</p>
<p>Aircraft have played a role in U.S. presidential campaigns for decades. As an <a href="https://udayton.edu/directory/artssciences/history/bednarek_janet.php">aviation historian</a> attentive to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=x0uLSdn_hFUC&oi=fnd&pg=PR9&dq=Janet+Bednarek&ots=oAixWmnHMr&sig=_vXztQ6Gdb6jFD66ohilI6JvIBg#v=onepage&q=Janet%20Bednarek&f=false">the evolution of the general aviation sector</a>, I think the pandemic has increased their importance in 2020, forcing <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/joe-biden-spent-more-on-private-jets-in-3q-than-2020-democratic-rivals.html">candidates to make more strategic use of aircraft</a> as the quickest and safest way to campaign. </p>
<h2>Campaigns take flight</h2>
<p>The use of airplanes in <a href="https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/the-first-presidential-flight-2901615/">presidential campaigns has evolved from something so daring</a> – even death-defying – that it made headlines, to a convenient, necessary tool. </p>
<p>Today it’s the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-emerges-with-a-low-tech-coronavirus-strategy-masks-and-distancing-but-no-testing/2020/06/07/983ee122-a75a-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html">safest way for candidates to travel</a> – not simply because of aviation’s safety record but due to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/us/politics/trump-campaign-coronavirus-tulsa.html">dangers candidates face amid the pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>With the Great Depression hanging over the 1932 presidential election, New York Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt believed the country would respond to bold leadership. His campaign hatched a plan to break with protocol and <a href="https://fdrlibrary.wordpress.com/tag/democratic-national-convention/">accept the Democratic presidential nomination in person</a> – and in dramatic fashion. </p>
<p>Working with American Airways, Roosevelt’s secretary, Guernsey Cross, arranged to <a href="https://www.faa.gov/about/history/people/media/Ford_Trimotor.pdf">charter a Ford Tri-Motor</a>, a standard commercial aircraft of the early 1930s, to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=qtCRa7bCz3oC&pg=PA33&lpg=PA33&dq=roosevelt+flies+Ford+Tri-motor+from+Albany+to+Chicago&source=bl&ots=Wk-aA_SwJd&sig=ACfU3U2qZ5K36Irxc-1ihYkE_K-xc5zyng&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiAzq-rjpPqAhWCSjABHVdVCP0Q6AEwC3oECAgQAQ#v=onepage&q=roosevelt%20flies%20Ford%20Tri-motor%20from%20Albany%20to%20Chicago&f=false">fly the governor from Albany to Chicago</a>. During a year when only <a href="https://www.centennialofflight.net/essay/Commercial_Aviation/passenger_xperience/Tran2.htm">474,000 Americans traveled via commercial aircraft</a>, the flight captured media attention.</p>
<p>The plane took off at about 8:30 a.m. on July 2, 1932, and after stops in Buffalo and Cleveland arrived in Chicago at 4:30 p.m., two hours behind schedule due to bad weather. Roosevelt used the time to work on his speech. That evening he <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-democratic-national-convention-chicago-1">accepted the nomination in person</a> and <a href="https://fdr.blogs.archives.gov/2012/09/06/found-in-the-archives-42/">promised Americans a “new deal.”</a></p>
<p>Roosevelt’s flight, however, did not immediately lead to more presidential air travel. Although First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt would use aircraft extensively, air travel was considered too risky for the president. FDR would not fly as president until 1943, when he used a military aircraft to travel to the Casablanca Conference in Morocco, to attend <a href="https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/the-first-presidential-flight-2901615/">a crucial strategy meeting with Winston Churchill</a>.</p>
<h2>Private planes gain prominence, come under fire</h2>
<p>Presidential air travel was well established when, during the 1960 presidential campaign, John F. Kennedy <a href="https://www.bjtonline.com/business-jet-news/campaigning-by-private-jet">became the first candidate to use his own private aircraft – a Convair CV-240 – to campaign</a>.</p>
<p>It’s probably an exaggeration to argue that the plane – dubbed “Caroline” for his young daughter – provided Kennedy with his margin of victory in the hotly contested race, <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/convair-240-caroline">as claimed by The Smithsonian</a>.</p>
<p>But it did allow Kennedy to travel <a href="http://sandiegoairandspace.org/collection/item/caroline-jfk-campaign-aircraft-collection">more than 225,000 miles and campaign more efficiently</a>. And since then, presidential candidates have made extensive use of private aircraft during their campaigns. Most campaign aircraft are chartered or owned by the campaign. </p>
<p>There was nothing particularly controversial about campaigning with private aircraft until the 2008 financial crisis. As the nation plunged into the Great Recession, <a href="https://blogs.wsj.com/autoshow/2008/11/19/congress-members-criticize-auto-executives-corporate-jet-travel/">automobile industry CEOs came under fire for using corporate aircraft</a> to fly to Washington, D.C. for congressional hearings focused on the huge bailout packages the industry had received from the government. Intense public backlash led to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/25/business/25jets.html">a drastic market downtown for corporate jets</a>. That backlash might explain <a href="https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/obama-take-campaign-to-the-rails-in-pennsylvania/">Sen. Barack Obama’s 2008 Whistle-Stop campaign train tour</a>, where he chose an historic mode of presidential transportation over the newly controversial one.</p>
<p>By 2012, however, memories of the 2008 controversy had faded and candidates again used <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/05/business/05road.html">private jets for campaign travel</a>. <a href="https://www.avgeekery.com/eight-notable-presidential-campaign-aircraft-changed-speed-politics/2/">Mitt Romney leased a 1990 MD-83</a>, while his running mate, Paul Ryan, utilized a 1970 DC-9-32. Both aircraft, bearing the slogan “Believe in America,” debuted at <a href="https://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/01/mitt-romney-flies-u2s-plane-paul-ryans-aircraft-is-as-old-as-he-is/">a campaign rally in Lakeland, Florida</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343780/original/file-20200624-133013-147h4xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters cheer as Donald Trump flies away on his plane after a campaign event in Wilmington, Ohio on Nov. 4, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-cheer-as-republican-presidential-candidate-news-photo/621188962?adppopup=true">Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But perhaps the most visible use of a private aircraft in a presidential campaign came with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-boeing-757-airliner-trump-force-one-private-jet-2016-11">Donald Trump’s use of his own Boeing 757</a> in the 2016 presidential race. </p>
<p>Trump used the plane, emblazoned with his name, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-there-it-is-moment-trump-wows-fans-by-using-air-force-one-as-a-campaign-prop/2018/11/04/4c36f61e-e043-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html">a backdrop at campaign rallies</a>. The plane, thus, not only allowed him to travel easily and extensively, but it also helped him promote <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/us/politics/donald-trumps-aging-air-fleet-gives-his-bid-and-his-brand-a-lift.html">his personal Trump brand</a> at every campaign stop. </p>
<h2>Safety during the pandemic</h2>
<p>Though <a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput">commercial aviation has witnessed a small recovery</a> since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, private aircraft have reemerged as the safest way to travel. They permit greater control over passengers and make social distancing easier. Both Air Force One and private aircraft have featured prominently in the 2020 presidential election.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Both candidates are in their <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-older-people-more-at-risk-of-coronavirus-133770">seventies and at greater risk from infection</a>. The Secret Service will continue to take <a href="https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/trump-to-take-flight-on-air-force-one-for-first-time-since-march-on-trip-to-arizona/19084997/">precautions to keep President Trump safe on Air Force One</a>. And Biden’s campaign can more easily enforce health guidelines on a private plane, especially protocols on masks and social distancing. Although the Biden campaign has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-campaign-plane-history-trump-clinton-obama-2020-8">decided against leasing a dedicated campaign plane</a>, when necessary – <a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/photos-scenes-from-joe-bidens-visit-to-kenosha-on-thursday/collection_417c6b5a-8adc-52ae-a750-6578ab7154d7.html#1">such as for his recent trip to Kenosha, Wisconsin</a> – Biden can and undoubtedly will make use of private aircraft.</p>
<p>The 2020 presidential election began amid stay-at-home orders, with President Trump and Joe Biden largely confined during the first few months. As Trump and Biden seek to get their messages out in the final weeks of the campaign, both will use aircraft when necessary and in what they determine to be the best interests of their respective races for the White House.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Bednarek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though air travel has boosted presidential campaigns for decades, the 2020 pandemic has underlined the importance of aircraft as the quickest and safest way to campaign.Janet Bednarek, Professor of History, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459952020-09-17T11:25:37Z2020-09-17T11:25:37ZFrom Washington to Trump, all presidents have told lies (but only some have told them for the right reasons)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358440/original/file-20200916-16-l9zkoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C52%2C2176%2C1690&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Nixon at a White House news conference in March 1973.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NixonsWatergateTestimony/d59d9c49c6164dbdafc4647310ca0c26/photo?Query=nixon&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7400&currentItemNo=10">AP Photo/Charles Tasnadi, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Michael Cohen, in his recent <a href="https://www.skyhorsepublishing.com/9781510764699/disloyal-a-memoir/">book,</a> has called President Trump a <a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/09/08/Michael-Cohens-tell-all-book-out-Tuesday-calls-Trump-liar-bully/1041599562972/">“fraud,” a “bigot,” a “bully” – and, most emphatically, a “liar”</a>. The Trump administration’s response to this book simply reverses the accusation, calling Cohen someone <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cohen-trump-book/2020/09/05/235aa10a-ef96-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html">who attempts to “profit off of lies”</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the media has often noted the frequency with which President Trump lies. The Washington Post, for instance, maintains a running database of what it terms the President’s “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims-database/?utm_term=.27babcd5e58c&itid=lk_inline_manual_2&itid=lk_inline_manual_2">false or misleading claims</a>” – which now number over 20,000, or an average of 12 per day. </p>
<p>Media’s accounts of Trump’s lies would seem to indicate that most people are wholeheartedly opposed to lying – and, in particular, opposed to being lied to by presidents. And yet a recent <a href="https://progressive.org/dispatches/lies-more-lies-presidential-history-lueders-200810/">survey of presidential deception</a> found that all American presidents – from Washington to Trump – have told lies, knowingly, in their public statements.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://phil.washington.edu/people/michael-blake">political philosopher</a>, with a focus on how people try to reason together through political disagreement, I argue that not all lies are the same. </p>
<p>History shows examples of presidents who have lied for a larger public purpose – and have been forgiven. </p>
<h2>The morality of deception</h2>
<p>Why, though, are lies thought so wrongful in the first instance?</p>
<p>Immanuel Kant, in the 18th century, provided one powerful account of <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199577415.001.0001/acprof-9780199577415-chapter-4">the wrongness of lying</a>. For Kant, lying was wrong in much the same way that threats and coercion are wrong. All of these override the autonomous will of another person, and treat that person as a mere tool. </p>
<p>For Kant, human beings were morally special precisely because they could use reason to decide what to do. When a gunman uses threats to coerce a person to do a particular act, he disrespects that person’s rational agency. Lies are a similar disrespect to rational agency: One’s decision has been manipulated, so that the act is no longer one’s own.</p>
<p>Kant defended these conclusions without exception. Kant regarded any lie as immoral – even one told to <a href="http://www.mesacc.edu/%7Edavpy35701/text/kant-sup-right-to-lie.pdf">a murderer at the door</a>. </p>
<p>Modern-day philosophers have often accepted Kant’s account, while seeking exceptions from its rigidness. In his book “Ethics for Adversaries,” philosopher <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/arthur-applbaum">Arthur Applbaum</a> <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691057392/ethics-for-adversaries">explains</a> why citizens might sometimes consent to being deceived, which might be useful in understanding presidential deception. </p>
<p>For example, a political leader who gives honest answers about a forthcoming military operation would likely imperil that operation – and most people would not want that. The key, though, is that people might accept such deception, after the fact, because of what that deception made possible. </p>
<p>To take one example: The British government sought to deceive the Nazi command about its plans for invasion – which entailed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/06/d-day-would-be-nearly-impossible-pull-off-today-heres-why/">lying even to British allies</a>. Applbaum argues that what might seem like simple deception might become justified, if those deceived could eventually consent – after the fact – to being so deceived.</p>
<h2>Honorable lies?</h2>
<p>History reveals examples of how presidents must sometimes lie, and how their lies might sometimes be morally defensible. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C21%2C2019%2C1513&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358427/original/file-20200916-18-vkbj10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leaders could lie for many reasons, and some lies might be morally defensible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mobili/43673422552/in/photolist-29xgGY1-2hKoNBg-2j1pTjB-2hspAbt-2iQpJ3v-2jjMAs3-RstBMm-RfyVW8-2j4Sr86-2gQ51vv-NZZjP5-2iNirUn-2iUnp18-MG2Grz-2iyLLE3-2iWsiDV-2iPdXoT-5oZqVC-2ixpw1Y-2hKrrmT-2ipMPiT-2hKsymy-TBXjDU-2hx4j17-26maq25-PdLjs-2hKoTPA-2hiFkvJ-2hKoSTs-2hKsCuJ-P6wqKa-2iV4QKp-LqVmws-299JgzE-2iQpFM3-25pSpbv-2hHkLEC-2iJDa2u-QpuRP5-LMgAhE-2j8hpCk-Y6nwUN-2hKrr1h-2hXFKWP-2hHY2Cg-2iM55ri-2j7Yrs9-M96MPT-2iuTs8d-NhAJd8">Mobilus In Mobili</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the 1930s, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was convinced that Hitler’s expansionism in Europe was a threat to the liberal democratic project itself, but he faced an electorate without any will to intervene in a European war. Roosevelt chose to insist publicly that he was opposed to any intervention – while doing everything he could to prepare for war and to covertly help the <a href="https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2017/01/04/how-franklin-d-roosevelt-prepared-us-for-wwii/">British cause</a>. </p>
<p>As early as 1948, historian Thomas Bailey noted that Roosevelt had made a calculated choice to both prepare for war and insist he was doing no such thing. To be open about his view of Hitler would have led to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CVqTXJjmtmUC&pg=PA298&lpg=PA298&dq=roosevelt+lying&source=bl&ots=0frUEvK02d&sig=ACfU3U3djJZzxplhbGcQwVXwPOAqWJaa2w&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiQ_cKC_evrAhUBip4KHUTjDqY4ChDoATAGegQICBAB#v=onepage&q=the%20man%20in%20the%20street&f=false">his defeat in the 1940 election.</a></p>
<p>Prior to Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln made similar calculations. Lincoln’s lies regarding his negotiations with the Confederacy – described by <a href="https://www.marlboro.edu/live/profiles/32-meg-mott">Meg Mott</a>, a professor of political theory, as being “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/24/politics/presidents-lie/index.html">devious</a>” – may have been instrumental in preserving the United States as a single country.</p>
<p>“Honest Abe” Lincoln was willing to open peace negotiations with the Confederacy – knowing that much of his own party thought that only unconditional surrender by the South would settle the question of slavery. At one point, Lincoln wrote a note to his own party asserting – falsely – that there were “<a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jala/2629860.0021.104/--hampton-roads-peace-conference-a-final-test-of-lincolns?rgn=main;view=fulltext">no peace commissioners</a>” being sent to a conference with the Confederacy. </p>
<p>A member of the Congress later noted that, in the absence of that note, the 13th Amendment – which ended the practice of chattel slavery – <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jala/2629860.0021.104/--hampton-roads-peace-conference-a-final-test-of-lincolns?rgn=main;view=fulltext">would not have been passed</a>.</p>
<h2>Good lies and bad lies</h2>
<p>The problem, of course, is that a great many presidential lies cannot be so easily linked to important purposes. </p>
<p>President Bill Clinton’s lies about his sexual activities were either simply self-serving or told to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Fe88rwSW8ywC&pg=PT507&lpg=PT507&dq=bill+clinton+%22the+lie+saved+me%22&source=bl&ots=AJY7EQZHoq&sig=ACfU3U2uGl7_XXWvjxHXE5jYNH0XyzOZyA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjFsPGE0enrAhWTvJ4KHY_WB5MQ6AEwC3oECAIQAQ#v=onepage&q=bill%20clinton%20%22the%20lie%20saved%20me%22&f=false">preserve his presidency</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, President Richard Nixon’s insistence that he knew nothing about <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/nixon-insists-that-he-is-not-a-crook">the Watergate break-in</a> was most likely a lie. John Dean, Nixon’s legal counsel, confirmed years later that the president <a href="https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/08/07/john-dean-uncovers-what-nixon-knew-about-watergate">knew about, and approved of</a>, the plan to rob the Democratic National Committee headquarters. This scandal eventually ended Nixon’s presidency. </p>
<p>In both cases, these presidents faced a significant threat to their presidencies - and chose deception to save not the nation, but their own power. </p>
<h2>President Trump and truth</h2>
<p>It is likely that President Trump has lied <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/06/podcast-glenn-kessler-david-corn-lies-washington-post-fact-checker/">more than previous presidents</a> in public – and, perhaps more significantly, he has also apparently lied about a wider variety of topics than his predecessors.</p>
<p>Soon after being elected he claimed, falsely, that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/22/trump-inauguration-crowd-sean-spicers-claims-versus-the-evidence">his inaugural crowd</a> was the largest ever. More recently, he insisted that Hurricane Dorian was likely to affect the coast of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/trump-sharpie-hurricane-dorian-alabama/index.html">Alabama</a> – and he seems to have altered a map with a Sharpie to bolster his false claim. The pattern of deception has continued, most recently with his acknowledgment that he <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-coronavirus-bob-woodward_n_5f58fd32c5b6b48507fabc99">deceived the public</a> about the coronavirus – and then his insistence <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-is-lying-about-lying-1058436/">that he had done no such thing</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>What is striking about these lies, in contrast to the lies of previous presidents, is that they have generally been told in the absence of a particular and acute threat to either the president’s power or to the preservation of the United States. </p>
<p>Presidents have lied for good reasons and for bad ones, but very few have chosen to lie without a particularly unusual threat to themselves or their nation. If some presidential lies might be forgivable, it could be only because of the good to the nation those lies bring about; and President Trump’s lies seem unlikely to meet that test.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Blake has received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities.</span></em></p>Some presidents have lied for honorable reasons, while for others the lies have been simply self-serving.Michael Blake, Professor of Philosophy, Public Policy and Governance, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1431662020-08-26T12:23:50Z2020-08-26T12:23:50ZPresidents have a long history of condescension, indifference and outright racism toward Black Americans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353958/original/file-20200820-22-j6bawz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C10%2C3530%2C2623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Theodore Roosevelt was one of many U.S. presidents who was racist.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/theodore-roosevelt-standing-on-a-podium-pointing-into-the-news-photo/515301984?adppopup=true">Bettman/Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The fury over racial injustice that erupted in the wake of George Floyd’s killing has forced Americans to confront their history. That’s unfamiliar territory for most Americans, whose historical knowledge amounts to a vague blend of fact and myth that <a href="https://woodrow.org/news/one-state-pass-us-citizenship-exam/">was only half-learned in high school</a> and is only half-remembered now.</p>
<p>If their historical knowledge is lacking, Americans are not any better informed about the role of presidential leadership – and lack of leadership – on racial issues. They may have heard that five of the first seven presidents owned slaves, and they know – or think they do – that Abraham Lincoln “freed the slaves.” </p>
<p>But even those tidbits of fact are incomplete. Several other presidents, including Ulysses Grant, owned slaves. And Lincoln, whose Emancipation Proclamation was more symbolic than practically effective, <a href="https://www.nprillinois.org/post/lincoln-race-great-emancipator-didnt-advocate-racial-equality-was-he-racist#stream/0">hated slavery but never considered Blacks equal to whites</a>. </p>
<p>An honest assessment of American presidential leadership on race reveals a handful of courageous actions but an abundance of racist behavior, even by those remembered as equal rights supporters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Rutherford Hayes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353959/original/file-20200820-24-1fi7v0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Rutherford Hayes claimed to be a friend of African Americans’ rights. He wasn’t.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rutherford-b-hayes-1822-93-19th-president-of-the-united-news-photo/1177464369?adppopup=true">Brady-Handy Collection, Glasshouse Vintage/Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our book, “<a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/presidents-and-black-america/book236977">Presidents and Black America: A Documentary History</a>,” examines the record of the first 44 presidents on racial issues and explores their relationships with African Americans. What emerges is a portrait of chief executives who were often blatantly racist and commonly subordinated concerns for racial justice to their own political advantage.</p>
<p>Here are a few examples:</p>
<p>• <strong>Rutherford Hayes</strong>, president from 1877-1881, claimed to be a friend of African Americans’ rights. <a href="https://www.rbhayes.org/hayes/rutherford-b.-hayes-s-inaugural-address/">At his inauguration</a>, he said “a true self-government” must be “a government which guards the interests of both races carefully and equally.” But he cut a shady deal to win the presidency in the 1876 election, whose result was as hotly disputed as the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. In that deal, he agreed to withdraw federal troops from Southern states where they’d been <a href="https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317">protecting Blacks from the Ku Klux Klan and white supremacist depredations</a>. Over the next two decades, Southern whites <a href="http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/shipp/lynchingyear.html">drove virtually all Black elected officials from office</a>, often by fraud and sometimes at gunpoint, and about 1,500 Southern Blacks were lynched.</p>
<p>• <strong>William McKinley</strong>, president from 1897-1901, delivered an <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/march-4-1897-first-inaugural-address">inaugural address</a> extolling equal rights and declared, “Lynchings must not be tolerated.” However, he remained silent when white supremacists in Wilmington, North Carolina, staged an 1898 coup that ousted all Black elected officials and killed at least 60 Blacks. His lack of response to lynchings prompted a Black-owned newspaper to observe, “The Negroes of this country turn with impatience, disappointment and disgust from Mr. McKinley’s fence-straddling and shilly-shallying discussion of lynch law.” </p>
<p>• <strong>Theodore Roosevelt</strong>, president from 1901-1909, believed in white superiority while simultaneously advocating educational opportunity regardless of race. In a letter to a friend, he wrote, “Now as to the Negroes! I entirely agree with you that as a race and in the mass they are altogether inferior to the whites.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Woodrow Wilson, speaking from a platform." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353961/original/file-20200820-20-8ljctx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Woodrow Wilson told Black leaders, ‘Segregation is not a humiliation but a benefit.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woodrow-wilson-the-28th-president-of-the-united-states-news-photo/2696038?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive / Stringer/Getty</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>• <strong>Woodrow Wilson</strong>, president from 1913-1921, promised fair treatment for African Americans in his 1912 campaign. But once elected, he defended his Southern Cabinet members who segregated workers in federal departments that hadn’t been segregated, <a href="https://scholarcommons.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1017&context=history">writing</a>, “It is as far as possible from being a movement against the negroes. I sincerely believe it to be in their interest.” Black Democrat Robert Wood of New York unsuccessfully urged Wilson to reverse the segregation policy: “We resent it, not at all because we are particularly anxious to eat in the same room or use the same soap and towels that white people use, but because we see in the separation in the races in the matter of soup and soap the beginning of a movement to deprive the colored man entirely of soup and soap, to eliminate him wholly from the Civil Service.” In <a href="https://modjourn.org/issue/bdr519445/">a testy White House exchange</a>, Wilson chastised William Monroe Trotter and other Black leaders, asserting that, “Segregation is not a humiliation but a benefit, and ought to be so regarded by you gentlemen. If your organization goes out and tells the colored people of the country that it is a humiliation, they will so regard it … The only harm that will come will be if you cause them to think it is a humiliation.”</p>
<p>• <strong>Franklin Roosevelt</strong>, president from 1933-1945, was widely admired among African Americans. While his New Deal programs did not benefit Blacks and whites equally, Blacks did receive benefits. But FDR’s actions were always guided by his need to appease Southern segregationists in Congress to pass his other agenda items. And his attitude could be condescending, as when he <a href="http://docs.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/transcr4.html">met with Black leaders</a> about integrating the military. He advised a gradual approach, particularly with the Navy: “We are training a certain number of musicians on board ship. The ship’s band. There’s no reason why we shouldn’t have a colored band on some of these ships, because they’re darn good at it.” </p>
<p>Political calculation has always been at work in presidential dealings with African Americans, from George Washington to Donald Trump. </p>
<p>But often, those dealings also reflected condescension, indifference, racial bias and outright racism in chief executives who took a solemn oath to serve all American citizens equally.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Woodrow Wilson told Black leaders, ‘Segregation is not a humiliation but a benefit, and ought to be so regarded by you gentlemen.’ He was one in a long line of racist American presidents.Stephen A. Jones, Adjunct Instructor of History, Central Michigan UniversityEric Freedman, Professor of Journalism and Chair, Knight Center for Environmental Journalism, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1422462020-08-04T12:17:21Z2020-08-04T12:17:21ZPolitical conventions today are for partying and pageantry, not picking nominees<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350661/original/file-20200731-18-1fgn93i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C14%2C4825%2C3170&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Delegates after Donald Trump accepted the GOP presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday, July 21, 2016. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/delegates-celebrate-as-balloons-drop-from-the-rafters-after-news-photo/578671712?adppopup=true">Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/via Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August the Democratic and Republican national conventions will take on new, uncharted formats. Due to COVID-19 concerns, gone are the mass gatherings in large convention halls, replaced with a switch to mostly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-the-republican-national-convention-came-undone/2020/07/24/705c0afa-cdd8-11ea-bc6a-6841b28d9093_story.html">online formats</a>. </p>
<p>This is just the latest modification in presidential nominating conventions since they were first introduced in the 1830s. </p>
<p>Initially, conventions were insulated meetings of representatives from the state parties, with <a href="https://conventions.cps.neu.edu/history/1832-1890/">convention delegates on their own</a> determining which candidate became the party’s presidential nominee. </p>
<p>By the early 20th century, convention participants began to receive information about public preferences from commercial public opinion polls and a small number of presidential primaries, which constrained conventions in their choice of presidential nominees. </p>
<p>Today’s national conventions ratify <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-selectionprocess-factbox/how-selecting-u-s-presidential-candidates-became-the-peoples-choice-idUSKCN0WW001">a candidate already chosen by the voters</a> in primaries and caucuses. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Portrait of George Washington" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350665/original/file-20200731-19-m2msmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George Washington didn’t need a nominating convention to become president. Everyone who followed did.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/george-washington-portrait-painting-by-constable-hamilton-news-photo/507014168?adppopup=true">Painting by Constable-Hamilton, 1794, Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Insulated conventions</h2>
<p><a href="https://conventions.cps.neu.edu/history/1789-1832/">George Washington needed no formal nomination</a>, as he was the overwhelming choice for president among those who would make up the Electoral College. </p>
<p>Subsequent early presidential candidates were nominated by their party’s members in Congress. But if a state did not have a representative from a particular party in Congress, it had no say in the party’s presidential nomination.</p>
<p>In the 1830s, <a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-evolution-of-party-conventions">political parties switched to national conventions</a>, which were meetings of representatives from the state parties. Each state was allotted delegates proportional to its Electoral College vote, and early conventions consisted of just a few hundred delegates. These delegates sought to find a popular candidate to head the party’s general election ticket, but had little information on who this candidate might be.</p>
<p>Candidates’ names were placed into contention by being nominated, and seconded, by a convention delegate. The winning candidate was determined by <a href="https://conventions.cps.neu.edu/history/1832-1890/">a series of roll-call votes</a> of state delegations that continued until one candidate won the required number of delegates. </p>
<p>Candidates did not attend the conventions; the <a href="http://www.uvm.edu/%7Edguber/POLS125/articles/ellis.htm">norm of the day was that politicians were not to openly campaign</a> for the presidency. Instead, managers of the various candidates bargained with state party leaders to accumulate the required number of delegates. </p>
<p>If one candidate began gaining strength in the rounds of voting, that candidate experienced a <a href="https://doleinstitute.org/get-involved/civic-engagement-tools/political-glossary/">bandwagon</a> of new support as other delegates wanted to be on the winning side. </p>
<p>Sometimes none of the early contenders was able to secure the winning total, and the convention turned to a compromise candidate instead. These late-round compromise candidates were known as “<a href="http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/polk/aa_polk_horse_3.html#:%7E:text=In%20horse%20racing%2C%20a%20%22dark,days%20old%20at%20the%20time.">dark horses</a>.” James Polk became the Democratic nominee in 1844 as one of these dark-horse candidates. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-political-parties-platforms-and-do-they-matter-141422">Party platforms</a>, encompassing the party’s positions on issues, were introduced in the 1840s.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Portrait of James Polk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1048&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1048&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350667/original/file-20200731-15-y7a7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1048&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">James Polk became the Democratic nominee in 1844 as the first dark-horse candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/polk/aa_polk_subj_e.html">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How Lincoln won the nomination</h2>
<p>At the <a href="https://www.greatamericanhistory.net/nomination.htm">1860 Republican convention</a>, a half-dozen potential candidates split the initial vote, although New York Senator William H. Stewart was considered the front-runner. </p>
<p>Candidate Abraham Lincoln’s strategy was to prevent Stewart’s nomination on the first ballot. Lincoln’s campaign managers would consolidate anti-Stewart delegates behind him in subsequent rounds. Lincoln’s managers won over some delegates by arguing that Lincoln was the most electable candidate, who could draw votes from farmers and businessmen as well as abolitionists. </p>
<p>While Lincoln requested that his managers not make any deals, they did promise a Cabinet position to <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/simon_cameron/402226">powerful Pennsylvania Senator Simon Cameron</a> to gain support from that state’s delegation. Lincoln’s managers also packed the public audience in Chicago with his supporters, a task made easier by the use of <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-abraham-lincoln-is-gop-nominee-in-an-upset">counterfeit public tickets</a>. </p>
<p>Lincoln won the nomination on the third round of voting.</p>
<h2>Public gets a voice</h2>
<p>In the 20th century, information about public preferences became available, which would help delegates to determine who would be their party’s most popular presidential candidate.</p>
<p>Early in the century, a handful of states adopted presidential primaries to select delegates, though most states continued to use <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/reformingthepresidentialnominationprocess_chapter.pdf">traditional methods</a> such as appointment by state or local party leaders or selection at local caucuses. Thus, the vast majority of 20th century convention delegates remained representatives of their state parties, not supporters of specific candidates.</p>
<p>An early use of presidential primaries in 1912 proved disastrous. Former <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/roosevelt/campaigns-and-elections">President Theodore Roosevelt ran for president again</a>, won 10 of the 13 presidential primaries and was favored by the progressive wing of the Republican Party. </p>
<p>But the majority of Republican convention delegates were party regulars who supported the current president William Taft instead. In addition, by this time a new norm had taken hold, to renominate sitting presidents.</p>
<p>Roosevelt <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1912-republican-convention-855607/">lost the Republican nomination</a>, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/today-in-history/june-22/">founded the Progressive Party in protest</a>, was nominated by that party and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/11/this-years-gop-presidential-battle-isnt-the-first-or-even-the-deepest-party-divide/">split the Republican vote</a> in the fall general election, allowing Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Newspaper with headlines announcing two nominees of a split GOP." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350668/original/file-20200731-21-3ci183.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1912, as this newspaper reports, the Republicans split over two presidential candidates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/sn86063758/1912-06-25/ed-1/?sp=1&st=single">University of South Carolina via Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Demise and comeback of primaries</h2>
<p>With the divisive results from the 1912 Republican convention and the waning of the Progressive Movement, which championed state adoption of primary laws, presidential primaries went out of favor. </p>
<p>In the middle of the 20th century, typically only 15 states held presidential primaries, selecting only one-third of the convention’s delegates. Few candidates ran in these presidential primaries, as primaries were not seen as a successful pathway to the nomination. </p>
<p>The public, however, still influenced presidential nominations as newly reliable public opinion polls measured support for potential nominees. In the mid-20th century, the candidate at the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/40/1/22/1836743">top of the national polls</a> almost always was nominated by the national conventions.</p>
<p>Other changes came to 20th-century conventions. Franklin Roosevelt was the first presidential nominee to attend a convention when he gave an <a href="https://www.fdrlibrary.org/dnc-curriculum-hub">acceptance speech in 1932</a>, broadcast nationally by radio. </p>
<p>Presidential primaries became somewhat more influential after World War II, when some candidates adopted a strategy of running in presidential primaries. Other candidates avoided running in primaries and relied on a traditional strategy of courting the party’s elite who would be delegates at the convention. </p>
<p>Running in presidential primaries was a risky strategy: A candidate who lost in a primary could see their presidential bid end, but even someone who won every single primary would not earn enough delegates to secure the nomination.</p>
<p>The goal of candidates entering the primaries was to convince party leaders of the candidate’s vote-winning abilities. <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/campaign-of-1960">John F. Kennedy in 1960 used primary victories</a> to convince Democratic convention delegates that he would be the most popular candidate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1968">Hubert Humphrey, in 1968, became the last candidate</a> nominated for president without running in any of the presidential primaries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The Democratic Convention celebrates after Hillary Clinton accepted the presidential nomination July 28, 2016." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350669/original/file-20200731-16-1m643pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s the party: The Democratic Convention celebrates after Hillary Clinton accepted the presidential nomination on July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/balloons-and-confetti-fall-following-a-speech-by-democratic-news-photo/584453302?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>All over but the shouting</h2>
<p>Today’s conventions are ratifying rather than nominating conventions. Their main contribution is to bring the party together in support of their nominee. </p>
<p>While in the past, convention delegates chiefly represented their state’s party, <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-DELEGATE-TRACKER/0100B5DR3JT/index.html">today’s delegates are bound to support specific candidates</a> based on the outcomes of the presidential primaries and caucuses. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>By accumulating these bound delegates, a party’s presumptive nominee becomes apparent by mid- to late spring. That’s when one candidate takes a commanding lead in the delegate totals and the other candidates withdraw from the race. Even in the unusually long Democratic contests of 2008 and 2016, by the time of the last primaries in June, one candidate had already secured the support of 50% of delegates. </p>
<p>Today’s conventions also approve the presidential nominee’s choice of a running mate. As <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/0706/For-Biden-a-VP-search-fraught-with-significance">has happened with presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden</a>, the selection of a presumptive presidential nominee in spring gives them plenty of time to vet potential vice presidents. </p>
<p>In addition, modern conventions sign on to <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=fffeac47-d74b-40a3-b3a6-4ef7ea32ffa2&sp=1&sr=1&url=%2Fwhat-are-political-parties-platforms-and-do-they-matter-141422">a party platform written before the convention</a> and which has been strongly influenced by the nominee’s positions. </p>
<p>Once begun as places to make deals and deliberate on possible candidates and positions, today’s conventions are public relations events, stressing the character, issues and strong party support for the party’s presidential ticket.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Norrander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Political conventions used to pick presidential nominees in private. Now the public picks the nominee and then the party has a big party at the convention, writes a scholar of US elections.Barbara Norrander, Professor, School of Government & Public Policy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1417672020-07-08T12:18:09Z2020-07-08T12:18:09ZLeaders like Trump fail if they cannot speak the truth and earn trust<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346111/original/file-20200707-194409-13ise6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C33%2C4488%2C2702&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump at the Tulsa campaign rally, where he said he had slowed down COVID-19 testing to keep the numbers low.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-at-a-campaign-rally-at-the-news-photo/1251044223?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During a <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/dr-fauci-cdc-director-redfield-testimony-transcript-for-senate-committee-on-health-education-labor-and-pensions">recent Senate committee</a> hearing on the COVID-19 crisis, Dr. Anthony Fauci told lawmakers he was concerned about “a lack of trust of authority, a lack of trust in government.”</p>
<p>He had reason to be worried. The Pew Center reported that July 7 <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/04/11/public-trust-in-government-1958-2019/">only 17% of people</a> in the U.S. have confidence in government to do the right thing. Never in the history of their surveys, which began in 1958, has that confidence been so low. </p>
<p>Why is trust so low and why does that matter, especially during a crisis – and especially during this crisis?</p>
<h2>No playbook</h2>
<p>The dilemma of leadership in modern democracy has long been the focus of my scholarship and teaching. I have asked what <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/the-leadership-dilemma-in-modern-democracy-9781848442542.html">qualities and virtues</a> leaders need to preside over a government of, by and for the people. If it’s a challenging topic, it is also one never lacking for material. The current era points especially to the importance of trust for effective and legitimate leadership in democracies. </p>
<p>The story begins with a basic principle of democracy: Leaders cannot do whatever they please. </p>
<p>The drafters of the United States Constitution assumed that anyone with power would always have the opportunity – and often the temptation – to abuse it. To protect society from unruly rulers, they set up an obstacle course of elaborate procedures, checks and balances, separated powers and a <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/Power-and-Constraint/">stringent rule of law</a> that applied to everyone, even those who wrote the laws. </p>
<p>In this system, inefficiency and complexity became virtues. Deliberation trumped dispatch. </p>
<p>It isn’t easy for leaders to act, and it is not supposed to be.</p>
<p>That’s a problem during a crisis. Emergencies require swift, decisive steps, sometimes improvised and often pushing the boundaries of formal authority. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>There’s no playbook, and those hurdles designed to prevent leaders from doing bad things may now prevent them from doing necessary things. </p>
<p>Even <a href="https://history.hanover.edu/texts/locke/j-l2-001.html">John Locke</a>, the 17th-century British philosopher so influential in the American approach to accountability and limited government, understood that stuff happens. And when it does, the machinery of government may prove too slow and cumbersome. </p>
<p>With regret but cold realism, Locke conceded that when severe threats appear, “There is a latitude left to the executive power, to do many things of choice <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=PuzBAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA74&lpg=PA74&dq=%E2%80%9CThere+is+a+latitude+left+to+the+executive+power,+to+do+many+things+of+choice+which+the+laws+do+not+prescribe.%E2%80%9D&source=bl&ots=hMrF_Z3UVm&sig=ACfU3U26R3wIQ4UQw1UcHzs83q7a0sVtPQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiNgLOIrrnqAhUZl3IEHZvKBNMQ6AEwAnoECAYQAQ">which the laws do not prescribe</a>.”</p>
<h2>Discretion granted, trust needed</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346116/original/file-20200707-194396-1oeo0a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">German leader Angela Merkel’s cool, measured and rational approach inspires confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-puts-on-a-face-mask-with-news-photo/1224446126?adppopup=true">John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s precisely when trust becomes critical. </p>
<p>The discretion granted to democratic leaders in times of crisis – the room they have to maneuver – depends entirely on how much the people trust them. And that depends on their competency, honesty and commitment to the public interest.</p>
<p>One of Dwight Eisenhower’s <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Age_of_Eisenhower.html?id=IIbOtwEACAAJ">biographers</a> explains that discipline was central to his leadership style. Eisenhower leaned heavily on experts and had the patience and persistence to navigate the complex machinery of government. Sometimes that made him appear cautious, but few questioned his competence. </p>
<p>Today German Chancellor Angela Merkel embodies the same set of skills, a cool, measured and rational approach that <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2019/05/those-who-have-known-angela-merkel-describe-her-rise-to-prominence/">inspires confidence</a>. High among her leadership qualities is a projection of competence, no doubt enhanced by Germany’s success responding to the pandemic. </p>
<p>The Financial Times political columnist Gideon Rachman wonders if the pandemic will ultimately be a setback for populist leaders such as Boris Johnson in Great Britain, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Donald Trump in the United States. They seem thrilled by the theater of politics but bored by the details of governing. As their countries suffer some of the worst effects of the pandemic, <a href="https://on.ft.com/38iD9IU">Rachman believes</a> citizens will rediscover the value of sheer competence. </p>
<h2>Honesty and the public interest</h2>
<p>Telling the truth also earns trust. </p>
<p>But honesty is more than just conveying basic facts. It is the capacity to explain the crisis, the sacrifice required and the path to a solution. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346118/original/file-20200707-194413-19jsj2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During his ‘fireside chats,’ President Franklin Roosevelt’s calm, clear and accessible explanations about the challenges of the Depression were instrumental in reassuring the nation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-politician-and-the-32nd-president-of-the-united-news-photo/3090500?adppopup=true">MPI/Getty images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=792dc03b-5dbc-473a-b77b-f600595802b7&sp=1&sr=1&url=%2Fhow-the-fireside-chat-provided-a-model-for-calming-the-nation-that-president-trump-failed-to-follow-133473">Roosevelt during the Depression</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30934629">Churchill during World War II</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/24/can-we-learn-covid-19-like-john-f-kennedy-did-cuban-missile-crisis/">Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/gwbush/foreign-affairs">Bush in the aftermath of 9/11</a> (at least the immediate aftermath) were granted considerable discretion because they accurately described and credibly interpreted the challenge facing the people.</p>
<p>In the current crisis, <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/09/doctors-fume-at-government-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic/">medical professionals have told the inconvenient truths</a> about the pandemic. Political leaders at the national level have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/25/hydroxychloroquine-false-hope-trump/">offered false hopes and misleading information</a>. That is why <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/upshot/coronavirus-americans-trust-experts.html">trust in medical professionals</a> in the United States far exceeds trust in elected officials. </p>
<p>Finally, trust is given when leaders act in the public interest, not their own self-interest. </p>
<p>Perhaps the most damning indictment in <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/books/story/2020-06-19/bolton-book-tells-all-about-trump-except-what-makes-him-tick">John Bolton’s book</a> about his time in the Trump administration was this assessment of the president: “I am hard-pressed to identify a significant Trump decision during my tenure that wasn’t driven by reelection calculations.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/upshot/poll-trump-defectors-2020-election.html">One 2016 Trump voter</a> explained his recent change of heart even more bluntly: “It was like this dude is just in it for himself. I thought he was supposed to be for the people.” </p>
<p>If that perception becomes widespread, it will deplete whatever stock of trust citizens have left for the president. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/04/11/public-trust-in-government-1958-2019/">Those Pew measures of trust</a> are fundamental expressions of whether citizens believe leaders will forsake their own immediate interests to serve a public interest.</p>
<p>Dr. Fauci is right. A solution to the pandemic requires testing, contact tracing, masks, social distancing and ultimately a vaccine. It also requires leaders who are competent, honest and committed to the public interest – leaders who are trustworthy. </p>
<p>The absence of trust jeopardizes an effective response to a health crisis. But it also creates a political crisis, a loss of faith in democracy as a way to govern ourselves. Public health in the U.S. is at stake. So is the health of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141767/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kenneth P. Ruscio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The absence of trust in a nation’s leader and government jeopardizes an effective response to a health crisis. It also creates a political crisis, a loss of faith in democracy.Kenneth P. Ruscio, Senior Distinguished Lecturer, Jepson School of Leadership Studies, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1395482020-06-26T12:33:37Z2020-06-26T12:33:37ZTo achieve a new New Deal, Democrats must learn from the old one<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343030/original/file-20200620-43225-id49cp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=226%2C104%2C3409%2C2625&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Franklin Roosevelt and other administration officials visit a Civilian Conservation Corps Camp during the New Deal.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/franklin-roosevelt-and-other-administration-officials-visit-news-photo/640458921?adppopup=true">Library of Congress/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the United States reels from the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide anti-racism protests, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-new-deal-ubi.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur">pundits</a> from <a href="https://apnews.com/06bc980d01efba6f1252ad042ea7d29b">both sides</a> of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-means-the-era-of-big-government-isback-11587923184?mod=hp_lead_pos7">political aisle</a> have speculated that a new New Deal is in the offing. </p>
<p>It could happen. Crises, after all, often produce social policy gains, and the similarities between the 1930s and today are hard to ignore. </p>
<p>Unemployment has reached levels <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">not seen since the 1930s</a>, widening gaps in the social safety net. The infirm have been forced to work absent paid sick leave. The <a href="https://squaredawayblog.bc.edu">laid off have lost health coverage</a>. And one in 5 <a href="https://www.hamiltonproject.org/blog/the_covid_19_crisis_has_already_left_too_many_children_hungry_in_america">households with young children faces food shortages</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, when Franklin D. Roosevelt took office unemployment was at 25% and the poverty rate among <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2010/aug/17/eddie-bernice-johnson/texas-congresswoman-eddie-bernice-johnson-says-soc/">elderly citizens hovered over 70%</a>. In 1932 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2017/07/28/the-veterans-were-desperate-gen-macarthur-ordered-u-s-troops-to-attack-them/">World War I veterans demanding bonus payments</a> were forcibly removed from Washington, D.C., by U.S. troops.</p>
<p>But these <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Politics_in_Hard_Times.html?id=PKetAKzdlC4C">conditions don’t automatically result in progressive social policy</a>. Britain muddled through the Depression without social reform, and Germany turned fascist and militaristic, for example.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.faculty.uci.edu/profile.cfm?faculty_id=5285">sociology professor</a> who has <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691050683/bold-relief">written extensively</a> about <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691138268/when-movements-matter">U.S. social policy</a>, I think Roosevelt’s New Deal teaches us that several developments have to coincide to generate a long-term social safety net.</p>
<h2>Polls favor Democrats</h2>
<p>First, public opinion has to shift drastically. In the 1930s, Gallup polls revealed strong support for government pensions for the elderly. Today public opinion has grown in favor of several <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos">social policy initiatives</a>. About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/30/two-thirds-of-americans-favor-raising-federal-minimum-wage-to-15-an-hour/">two-thirds of voters support a US$15 minimum wage</a>, which was a <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/wages-win-public-and-minimum-wage-debate">minority view</a> six years ago. A majority of Americans favor <a href="https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-opinion-on-single-payer-national-health-plans-and-expanding-access-to-medicare-coverage/">a single-payer health plan</a>. That, too, was a minority view just a decade ago.</p>
<p>The crisis also has to unfold under the watch of a regime opposed to expanded social policies. Herbert Hoover opposed public relief – for the agricultural sector, the unemployed or the welfare state, in general – during the Depression. Instead, he ineffectively relied on <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/hoover/domestic-affairs">mobilizing private efforts</a>.</p>
<p>The Trump administration, likewise, has waged <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/trump-still-wants-to-kill-obamacare-coronavirus-aca">war on Obamacare</a>. It wants <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/how-a-payroll-tax-cut-could-impact-social-security-and-medicare.html">a payroll tax cut</a>, which would slash into Social Security and Medicare. And the Republican Senate opposes <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/us/politics/coronavirus-hunger-food-stamps.html">funding increases for food stamps</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-puts-partisan-spin-on-federal-aid-for-states-republicans-and-democrats-warn-of-coming-financial-calamity/2020/04/27/a542f19e-889a-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html">federal aid for states facing depleted budgets</a> as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<p>The public must also blame the crisis on the party in power and reject that party at the polls. The Republicans lost their congressional majority in 1930, and Hoover suffered a crushing defeat in 1932, with Roosevelt carrying many congressional Democrats on his coattails.</p>
<p>American voters have yet to decide on Trump and the Republicans, but early signs point to rejection. Trump’s approval rating remains <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo">well under water</a>, while <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/309173/americans-trust-governors-among-economic-players.aspx">the popularity of most governors has skyrocketed</a>. <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">Trump trails Joe Biden by double digits</a> in many presidential polls. Congressional <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo">ballots strongly favor Democrats</a>. And <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/12/these-are-9-senate-seats-most-likely-flip/?arc404=true">Republican senators in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and Maine are in trouble</a>, while their counterparts in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-grow-nervous-about-losing-the-senate-amid-worries-over-trumps-handling-of-the-pandemic/2020/05/09/65691184-915f-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html">Montana, Georgia, Kansas and Iowa</a> seem vulnerable.</p>
<h2>Longstanding political control</h2>
<p>But three other things had to happen in the 1930s before New Deal reforms were implemented.</p>
<p>The first was a long-term shift in political control. Congress did not pass the Social Security and National Labor Relations Acts until Roosevelt’s third year in office. And Congress did not approve the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41840777">Fair Labor Standards Act</a>, which created the minimum wage, until his sixth year in office. </p>
<p>Roosevelt’s first two years were devoted largely to saving banks, encouraging industries to stabilize prices and wages and providing short-term poverty relief. If the Democrats had lost congressional support in 1934, major social reforms would have never seen the light.</p>
<p>Compare Roosevelt’s – and the Democrats’ – hold on power to former President Barack Obama’s, and the prerequisites for extensive reform become clear. Yes, Obama helped pass the Affordable Care Act, but he spent much of his early first term seeking passage of the <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/recovery">Recovery Act</a> to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/us/politics/29obama.html">counter the Great Recession</a>. He had to abandon potential labor and environmental reforms after losing congressional control for good in 2010. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343615/original/file-20200624-132401-g7wqr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Barack Obama signs the Affordable Health Care during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House, March 23, 2010 in Washington, D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-barack-obama-signs-the-affordable-health-care-for-news-photo/97973796?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, the New Deal reform wave was possible only after congressional elections in 1934 gave Democrats an overwhelming majority, putting legislative control in the hands of liberals. <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/03/fdr-wins-a-second-term-nov-3-1936-955317">Roosevelt won in a larger landslide in 1936</a>, and congressional Democrats expanded their majority. The Social Security Act was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1525/ctx.2006.5.3.18">amended twice</a>, and the program we know today <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/1950.html">was established in 1950</a>, after Democrats had won the presidency for the fifth consecutive time.</p>
<h2>Mass mobilization</h2>
<p>New Deal reforms also relied on the mobilization of activists. The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=AN5QukE1Qi0C&q=8000#v=snippet&q=8000&f=false">2-million-strong Townsend Plan</a> – with 8,000 clubs across the country – placed intense pressure on Congress. This group demanded universal retirement benefits, about $3,700 per month in today’s dollars. Workers struck for the right to bargain collectively. The unemployed organized and demanded benefits, too. Together, these efforts kept major reforms high on the political agenda.</p>
<p>Though <a href="https://qz.com/1542019/union-membership-in-the-us-keeps-on-falling-like-almost-everywhere-else/">unionization has witnessed steady declines for decades</a>, the labor movement has enjoyed a sporadic <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-05-01/coronavirus-labor-unions-mobilize-california">resurgence of sorts recently</a>, with <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkstp.nr0.htm">major work stoppages</a> – by United Auto Workers, United Teachers of Los Angeles and United Food and Commercial Workers – in the last couple of years. To implement major social policy changes, labor would need to remain active. The activists of Black Lives Matter movement would have to build on their nationwide protests and redouble organized efforts to <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/6/8/21283841/democrats-police-reform-bill-explained-george-floyd">transform police departments</a>. And social policy would benefit from other reform-minded groups mobilizing as well.</p>
<p>Winning lasting social policy reform also required skillful policy crafting. The Social Security Act included taxes on payrolls and over time made its insurance program universal. Benefits for survivors and the disabled were slipped into the program’s coverage in 1939. </p>
<p>However, other programs were mishandled. Roosevelt depleted considerable political capital on the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/surviving-the-dust-bowl-works-progress-administration-wpa/">Works Progress Administration</a>, a program to provide temporary work to the unemployed, which was permanently <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1942/12/04/FDR-orders-liquidation-of-WPA-promptly/6861512356412/">“discharged”</a> after a conservative Congress was elected in 1942. That political capital might have been spent on lasting reform.</p>
<p>If the Democrats win the presidency and control of Congress, they will need to adopt and improve <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/12/opinion/fdr-warren-2020.html?searchResultPosition=2">universal programs with solid foundations</a>, like Social Security. They also need to avoid squandering political capital on short-term fixes. Some easy first moves would be to lower the age for <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/11/832025550/bidens-health-play-in-a-covid-19-economy-lower-medicares-eligibility-age-to-60">Medicare eligibility to 60, as Joe Biden proposes</a>, and end the wage ceiling on Social Security taxes, while <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/9/12/20860672/elizabeth-warrens-social-security-expansion">permanently boosting benefits by $200 per month</a>.</p>
<p>Most of programs in Obama’s Recovery Act were funded for only a year or two. Under new Democratic rule, grassroots groups – focused on environmental change, racial justice and gun safety, for example – will need to redouble organizing efforts to keep political leaders’ feet to the fire, lending urgency to public opinion for reform. </p>
<p>The lessons from the old New Deal suggest that a new one is possible. But Democrats will need to control Congress, policymakers will need to look beyond the current crises, and activists will need to keep the pressure on to establish lasting structural change.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edwin Amenta receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Similarities between the 1930s and today are hard to ignore, but Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal teaches us that several developments have to coincide to generate a lasting social safety net.Edwin Amenta, Professor of Sociology, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.