tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/houston-39637/articlesHouston – The Conversation2024-01-02T16:49:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195462024-01-02T16:49:57Z2024-01-02T16:49:57ZPrivatised Moon landings: the two US missions set to open a new era of commercial lunar exploration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566549/original/file-20231219-23-qde9s6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1839%2C984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10836">Photograph: Nasa (Goddard Space Flight Center)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two commercial spacecraft are scheduled to launch to the Moon early in 2024 under a Nasa initiative called the Commercial Lunar Payload Service <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/commercial-lunar-payload-services/">CLPS</a>. This programme is intended to kickstart a commercial transportation service that can deliver Nasa experiments and other payloads to the lunar surface.</p>
<p>If successful, these missions will represent the first landings on the Moon by spacecraft designed and flown by private companies. They could potentially open up a new era of commercial lunar exploration and science. </p>
<p>CLPS was inaugurated by Nasa in 2018. An initial pool of nine companies received an invitation to join the programme. They included <a href="https://www.astrobotic.com/">Astrobotic</a> and <a href="https://www.intuitivemachines.com/">Intuitive Machines</a>, the two companies behind these missions. Both missions expect to land within a week after lift-off.</p>
<p>The first launch, and the first Nasa flight of 2024, is the Peregrine lunar lander, built by Pittsburgh-based Astrobotic. It is scheduled to launch at the earliest on January 8. Broadly speaking, the lander is a box the size of a medium-sized garden shed containing several separate experiments. </p>
<p>These include a set of mirrors called a laser retro-reflector array, used for accurate positioning of the lander from orbit. There are also a number of spectrometers – instruments that separate and measure the distinct colours found in light. These will measure radiation on the lunar surface and look for signatures of water in lunar soil.</p>
<p>One of them, the <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/experiment/display.action?id=PEREGRN-1-02">Neutron Spectrometer System</a>, will look for hydrogen-containing materials on the surface, which can indicate the presence of water below ground. This water could one day be used by human explorers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Astrobotic Peregrine lander." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1917%2C1279&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander will touch down near the Gruithuisen Domes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/KSC-20231114-PH-ILW01_0100">Isaac Watson/Nasa</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are two principle sources of dangerous radiation for humans in space. One is the Sun, which unleashes electrons, protons and heavier ions that are accelerated to a significant fraction of the speed of light. </p>
<p>These solar energetic particle events (SEPs) are more likely to occur during the Sun’s peak of activity (solar maximum), which occurs every 11 years. However, that does not mean there is a respite during the solar minimum.</p>
<p>The other source of harmful radiation is galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These energetic particles originate outside the Solar System, probably in explosive phenomena such as exploding stars (supernovas).</p>
<p>During periods of lower solar activity (including the solar minimum), the Sun’s magnetic field, which extends throughout the Solar System, weakens. This enables <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Solar-cycle-%20modulation-and-anti-correlation-of-GCR-flux-with-solar-activity-Shown-are_fig6_257343697">more GCRs</a> to reach us instead. </p>
<p>Another spectrometer on Peregrine will measure both SEPs and GCRs on the Moon. This is important for examining how dangerous the radiation environment at the lunar surface will be for future human explorers.</p>
<h2>Polar landing</h2>
<p>The second spacecraft to launch early in 2024 is the <a href="https://www.intuitivemachines.com/im-1">Nova-C lander</a>. It is designed by Houston-based Intuitive Machines and has a similar volume to Peregrine, but in the shape of a tall, hexagonal cylinder. It will carry several instruments including its own laser retro-reflector array. Nova-C is currently scheduled to launch in mid-February.</p>
<p>Other instruments include a suite of cameras for producing a 3D image of Nova-C’s landing site. This will allow scientists to estimate how much material is blown away by the landing rocket’s exhaust plume during the descent. Potentially, any material blown away can be imaged to get an idea of the composition of surface material. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Nova-C lander." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A model of the Nova-C lander.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/NHQ201905310022">Nasa (Goddard Space Flight Center)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The “radio observations of the lunar surface photo-electron sheath” (<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.02331.pdf">Rolses</a>) instrument is designed to measure how the extremely tenuous lunar atmosphere and the Moon’s surface dust environment affect radio waves. </p>
<p>The behaviour of electrically charged dust particles on the Moon is a technical challenge which future explorers will need to deal with, as the abrasive particles can attach themselves to surfaces and mechanical devices and potentially cause harm if <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-%20next-big-challenge-for-lunar-astronauts-moon-dust/">inhaled</a> by astronauts.</p>
<p>A privately built experiment onboard Nova-C is the International Lunar Observatory <a href="https://iloa.org/ilo-x-precursor/">ILO-X</a>, which will aim to capture some of the first images of the Milky Way galaxy from the Moon’s surface. This would demonstrate the concept of lunar-based astronomy.</p>
<h2>Landing locations</h2>
<p>Peregrine’s landing site is a bay on the west side of Mare Imbrium, known as Sinus Viscositatis (Bay of Stickiness). Here, two volcanic mountains called the <a href="https://moon.nasa.gov/resources/482/a-lunar-%20mystery-the-gruithuisen-domes/">Gruithuisen Domes</a> are made of a different material to the surrounding plains. </p>
<p>The plains are a form of basalt, while the domes are composed of silica. Both are volcanic in origin, but one appears to have been formed by lava with a viscosity of mango chutney (the silica), and the other by runnier lava (the basalt). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Gruithuisen Domes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gruithuisen Domes appear to have been formed by silica lavas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://moon.nasa.gov/resources/482/a-lunar-mystery-the-gruithuisen-domes/">Nasa (GSFC)/Arizona State University</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On Earth, silica lavas typically require the presence both of water and plate tectonics. However, plate tectonics are not known to be present on the Moon, and neither is water in the quantities necessary for silica lavas. The Gruithuisen Domes thus present a geological enigma which Peregrine could go some way to resolving.</p>
<p>The landing location for Nova-C is Malapert A crater – which is of particular interest for lunar exploration, as it lies close to the Moon’s south pole. The surrounding mountains permanently shield this depression from sunlight, leaving it in constant darkness. </p>
<p>Consequently, it is one of the coldest locations in the Solar System and, given the lack of sunlight, a place where water ice delivered by comets hitting the surface over the aeons could remain stable. Future human explorers could use it for life support and making rocket fuel.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lunar south pole." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An image of the Moon’s South Pole showing the Malapert crater (foreground).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5127">Nasa's Scientific Visualization Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are additional payloads on both spacecraft from private investors. Peregrine contains the “DHL Spacebox”, which will carry personal items from paying customers, while Nova-C contains “The Humanity Hall of Fame” – a list of names to be sent to the Moon for posterity. Such payloads can generate additional funding for the launch companies.</p>
<p>Several other companies are due to launch their first payloads to the Moon in the next couple of years. With greater input from private companies – assuming the these first few missions succeed – we may soon witness a new era in lunar exploration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219546/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Peregrine and Nova-C landers are due to carry out valuable science at two diverse lunar locations.Gareth Dorrian, Post Doctoral Research Fellow in Space Science, University of BirminghamIan Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154842023-10-13T12:11:57Z2023-10-13T12:11:57ZOsiris-Rex: Nasa reveals evidence of water and carbon in sample delivered to Earth from an asteroid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553639/original/file-20231013-21-8i85py.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C2846%2C1517&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The "coal-like" material from Bennu.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/jsc2023e058642">Nasa / Erika Blumenfeld & Joseph Aebers</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On September 24 this year, a Nasa capsule parachuted down to Earth carrying a precious cache of material grabbed from an asteroid. The space agency has now revealed images and a preliminary analysis of the space rocks it found after lifting the lid off that capsule.</p>
<p>The mission to the asteroid was called <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/mission/osiris-rex/">Osiris-Rex</a>, and in 2020, it collected a sample of material from the asteroid Bennu. Afterwards, it travelled back to Earth and released the capsule containing the rocks into our atmosphere three weeks ago. </p>
<p>The fine black dust and small coal-like rocks shimmering in the capsule are beautiful – and somewhat unassuming. But this handful of space rock has the potential to answer questions about not only how the Earth was created, but
also how water arrived here and how life got started.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFvIuSpACQA">At the Nasa press conference</a> on October 11 held to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-bennu-asteroid-sample-contains-carbon-water/">reveal details about the sample</a>, Dr Francis McCubbin hinted that, with careful storage and preparation, the material could be analysed and used in experiments for years to come. </p>
<p>“Scientists that aren’t even born yet, (will be able to) answer questions about the Universe using technology that has not even been invented,” said the <a href="https://curator.jsc.nasa.gov/curation.cfm">astromaterials curator</a> at Nasa’s Johnson Space Center, Houston, where the Bennu sample is being stored.</p>
<h2>Why collect asteroid samples?</h2>
<p>Sometimes material from space comes to Earth without our help, <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/meteors-meteorites/">arriving as meteorites</a>. Nasa has hundreds of meteorite samples in its collection, which are believed to have come from asteroids. Useful analysis can be carried out on these samples.</p>
<p>However, it’s often not possible to track down which asteroids these meteorites came from. This limits the potential of the resulting science. Meteorites <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/headline_915275_en.html">are also contaminated</a> by their journey through the atmosphere and onto the Earth. The Osiris-Rex sample, in contrast, is “pristine”. We can be sure any discoveries made from this sample tell us about Bennu. </p>
<p>Some of the finer dust in the Bennu sample would never have been able to form a meteorite and fall to Earth. Going and retrieving it is the only way we would ever have seen this type of material.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Osiris-Rex sample return capsule shortly after touching down in the Utah desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553640/original/file-20231013-22-rk5i1m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Osiris-Rex sample return capsule shortly after touching down in the Utah desert.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/NHQ202309240003">NASA/Keegan Barber</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is not the first asteroid sample delivered to Earth. Two Japanese space agency (Jaxa) missions, <a href="https://www.isas.jaxa.jp/en/missions/spacecraft/past/hayabusa.html">Hayabusa 1</a> <a href="https://www.isas.jaxa.jp/en/missions/spacecraft/current/hayabusa2.html">and 2</a>, made deliveries of asteroid material in 2010 and 2020. However, this is the first US mission to do so. It also returned with significantly more material than the Hayabusa missions. </p>
<p>Osiris-Rex delivered an estimated 250g of space rock, compared to Hayabusa 2’s 5g. This means the sample can be distributed to scientists around the world and put on display in museums for the public to enjoy. It also means that some larger rock fragments were included, which gives a unique opportunity to examine how different minerals are arranged in bigger chunks of the asteroid. This unlocks even more scientific potential.</p>
<h2>What have they found?</h2>
<p><a href="https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/101955-bennu/">Bennu</a> is what is known as a “carbonaceous”, or C-Type, asteroid. These contain a large proportion of carbon and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatile_(astrogeology)">“volatiles”</a> – compounds that can be readily vaporised, like water. These asteroids are believed to be relics from the formation of the Solar System, and so can help explain how the planets, including Earth, came to be. </p>
<p>Analysis of the main portion of the sample has taken longer than expected to get started, but it’s a nice problem to have. The sample collection technique was so successful that the sample was “spilling out” of the container within the return capsule. Because every grain is precious, all of this bonus material must be meticulously collected before the sample canister itself can be opened and preparation of the main body of the sample can begin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tiny grain from Bennu sample." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553665/original/file-20231013-15-now15p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Magnification of a tiny grain from the sample. The small bright specks in the image on the right (under UV light) reveal the presence of organic compounds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFvIuSpACQA">Nasa</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, there have already been some exciting results from the initial analysis. Water has been found locked inside clay minerals from Bennu, which is an incredibly important discovery. One proposed mechanism for how water came to be on Earth and the other inner planets is that water was <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11214-018-0474-9">trapped inside clay minerals</a> like these, which then formed rocks. These were eventually incorporated into planets during the birth of the solar system. </p>
<p>There’s abundant carbon in the sample – nearly 5% by weight – and sulphur. Both elements are essential for life. Carbon is the key ingredient in the organic compounds that make biology possible. Sulphur is an important component of amino acids, which form proteins.</p>
<p>Asteroids like Bennu are thought to have <a href="https://news.uchicago.edu/explainer/origin-life-earth-explained">“seeded” Earth with prebiotic compounds</a>: the building blocks of life. Magnetite (an iron oxide) found in the sample has been linked to chemical reactions crucial for the evolution of life. As Dr Daniel Glavin, Osiris-Rex sample analyst, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/nasa-unveils-asteroid-sample-reveal-details-life-earth-rcna119903">summarised</a>: “We picked the right asteroid. And not only that, we brought back the right sample.”</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>As well as helping answer the big questions of how we and our planet came to be here, finding water on asteroids is also destined to be a part of our future. Water can be broken down into hydrogen and oxygen, which can then be used as rocket fuel. While still some way off, spaceship <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_propellant_depot">refuelling stations</a> are moving out of the realms of science fiction and into reality.</p>
<p>There’s only so much fuel you can take with you on a rocket. Far better to take just what you need to get off the planet and then <a href="https://www.space.com/water-rich-asteroids-space-exploration-fuel.html">fuel up in space</a> for the rest of your journey.</p>
<p>Water can also be used for life support in future bases on the Moon and Mars. So it’s crucial to understand where we can access water in space, and how to extract it. The water on asteroids is one potential source.</p>
<p>Asteroids, once known best for their likely part in the demise of dinosaurs, are enjoying some positive time in the spotlight, showcasing their part in humanity’s past, present and future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucinda King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Studying the sample could help answer how water arrived on Earth and how life started.Lucinda King, Space Projects Manager & Mission Design Lead, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022302023-06-06T12:29:50Z2023-06-06T12:29:50ZA community can gentrify without losing its identity – examples from Pittsburgh, Boston and Newark of what works<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526633/original/file-20230516-23757-xm3dyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C16%2C3567%2C2549&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A street mural by Manuel Acevedo at Halsey Place in Newark, N.J.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fourcornerspublicarts.org/projects#/the-gantalism-dedication-2019/ ">Anthony Alvarez</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How can neighborhoods gentrify without erasing their heart and voice?</p>
<p>It’s an important question to ask now, I’d suggest, since many communities across the U.S. are at risk of losing their historical identities as new people and businesses move in, displacing residents and affecting the fabric of the community. This <a href="https://www.pps.org/article/gentrification">process is known as gentrification</a>, and while a neighborhood “upgrade” can bring new vitality, diversity and opportunity, that is a win only if existing residents and businesses are not forced or priced out.</p>
<p>How to have the positive effects without the negatives isn’t obvious. President Joe Biden’s 2023 budget proposes a US$195 million increase in the Community Development Block Grant program that targets development in 100 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-room/2022/03/30/president-bidens-fy-2023-budget-advances-equity/">underserved communities</a>. By creating infrastructure that attracts new development, some of these projects will likely support gentrification.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/anthony-alvarez">educator</a>, arts administrator and public policy fellow who has worked with Fortune 500 companies and exhibited my own photography nationally. I teach fine arts classes at Rutgers in Newark, New Jersey, where I was raised.</p>
<p>As an artist, I believe that it is important to preserve diverse communities with unique characteristics. Public art is one way to highlight and honor our shared spaces <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0309-1317.2003.00492.x">even as we reshape them</a>. Art can help present the values that communities want to project and protect as a way of maintaining and creating great places to live.</p>
<h2>Defining spaces</h2>
<p>What makes a great place to live? </p>
<p>Or, as urban planner <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/artv.2017.0009">Maria Rosario Jackson</a> – now serving as chair of the National Endowment for the Arts – asks: What makes “a just place where people can thrive”? </p>
<p>The answer is, many elements working together. Accessible transportation, diverse housing stock, good schools and jobs, to name a few. Places and spaces in which visitors and residents can convene and connect, be entertained, engage creatively, and find experiences that expand and challenge imaginations. </p>
<p>Public art projects are at the center of many revitalization projects, and they are crucial to the fabric and vitality of their communities. Consider as just one example <a href="https://undergroundinkblock.com/about-2">Underground at Ink Block</a> in Boston, a project that transformed an ordinary underpass into a place where neighbors come together to honor shared histories and play, connect and create community surrounded by outstanding street art. </p>
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<p>Successful projects like this one don’t just happen. Rather, urban planners and community leaders rely on proven techniques that bring them together with community members to practice what urban planners call placemaking, creative placemaking and placekeeping.</p>
<h2>First came placemaking</h2>
<p>Placemaking entered into the urban planning vocabulary in a <a href="https://www.arts.gov/about/publications/creative-placemaking">2010 white paper</a> by Ann Markusen and Anne Gadwa for The Mayors’ Institute on City Design. </p>
<p>More recently, the Project for Public Spaces published a <a href="https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5810e16fbe876cec6bcbd86e/6335ddc88fbf7f29ec537d49_2022%20placemaking%20booklet.pdf">Primer on Placemaking</a> in 2022 titled “What if we build our cities around places?”</p>
<p>The paper argues that successful cities need destinations: strong communities with distinct identities to help attract new residents, businesses and investment. </p>
<p>Walkable, safe, comfortable and dynamic public spaces and buildings are key components to the creation of spaces where “people want to live, work, play and learn,” as Michigan State University <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/lpis_mark_wyckoff_authors_article_on_four_different_types_of_placemaking">urban planner Mark Wyckoff argues</a>.</p>
<p>Placemaking began as an economic development strategy focusing on “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-we-need-to-invest-in-transformative-placemaking/">economic districts</a>,” but recent shifts also call for thoughtful and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/about-the-bass-center/">sensitive social impact</a> focusing on what residents and commuters want, like cultural activities, accessible parks, and healthy and sustainable food sold at farmers markets.</p>
<h2>Harnessing creativity</h2>
<p>Creative placemaking connects traditional economic placemaking with arts and cultural strategies. Markusen and Gadwa explain that creative placemaking involves partnering with the community to re-imagine a neighborhood while maintaining its social and cultural character. </p>
<p>Movements such as <a href="https://www.tate.org.uk/art/art-terms/s/socially-engaged-practice">Socially Engaged Art</a> allow artists and community to come together in a public space that encourages conversation around a common goal. Rick Lowe’s <a href="https://projectrowhouses.org/">Project Row Houses</a> in Houston and the <a href="https://www.theastergates.com/project-items/dorchester-art-and-housing-collaborative-dahc">Dorchester Art and Housing Collaborative</a>’s Theaster Gates in Chicago are just two of many examples of this blurring of the lines between art, activism and economic development.</p>
<h2>Placekeeping</h2>
<p>More recently, the idea of placekeeping expands on these earlier concepts by recognizing that having communities at the table when revitalization projects are being planned is key to growing urban environments that have a good chance of keeping displacement at bay. Placekeeping emphasizes learning what is important to the fabric of the community and how to weave that into revitalization projects.</p>
<p>A former mayor of Oakland, California, Libby Schaaf, said <a href="https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2019/11/12/toward-placekeeping-how-design-dialogue-can-make-cities-better-everyone">in 2019</a>: “Placekeeping is about engaging the residents who already live in a space and allowing them to preserve the stories and culture of where they live.” </p>
<p>Oakland was one of the participants of Bloomberg Philanthropies’ <a href="https://www.bloomberg.org/press/bloomberg-philanthropies-launches-asphalt-art-initiative-providing-cities-how-to-guidance-to-transform-streets-and-public-spaces-with-artwork/">Asphalt Art Initiative</a>. This <a href="https://asphaltart.bloomberg.org/projects/">64-city program</a> has the goal of assisting “cities looking to use art and design to improve street safety, revitalize public spaces, and engage their communities.” </p>
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<p>Here in Newark, New Jersey, <a href="https://www.audible.com/about">Audible</a>, an audiobook and podcasting subsidiary of Amazon, has led a dynamic partnership with local leaders, elected officials, stakeholders, residents and artists called the <a href="https://www.archpaper.com/2022/06/newark-artist-collaboration-honors-the-citys-history-and-residents-through-13-just-unveiled-art-installations/">Newark Arts Collaboration</a>. The installation takes the form of 13 murals reflecting the vibrancy and histories of the city’s neighborhoods and the people within them. </p>
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<h2>Avoiding gentrification</h2>
<p>The best way of knowing what a community values is to ask the people who live there. </p>
<p><a href="https://nlihc.org/resource/gentrification-and-neighborhood-revitalization-whats-difference">Community benefits agreements</a> are contracts that bring community groups and stakeholders to a shared planning table. These agreements provide negotiated, binding contracts that help leverage tools such as <a href="https://www.ura.org/pages/lower-hill-lerta-greater-hill-district-neighborhood-reinvestment-fund">tax assistance programs and reinvestment funds</a> with concrete community investment plans. </p>
<p>For example, in Pittsburgh, community benefits agreements provided an opportunity for the community and developers to co-shape major revitalization projects beginning with the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9qqXHa3Gs0&list=PL45AA4AF0740EF212&index=1">PPG arena 2008</a> and expanding with the renovation of <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/hill-district-ura-concert-venue-lower-hill-district/">the historic New Granda Theater in 2023</a>.</p>
<p>Any anti-gentrification effort begins with an inclusive process. Under Mayor Michelle Wu, the city of Boston <a href="https://www.boston.gov/departments/arts-and-culture/allston-brighton-arts-culture-and-placekeeping">provides another example</a> of placekeeping by promising to learn “what exists, what is treasured and what contributes to the unique characteristics of Allston-Brighton,” a quickly developing neighborhood within the city.</p>
<p>Embracing the heart of the community, honoring its artistic expression, and creating access for the community was key in the development of <a href="https://www.evartscollective.com/frogtown-artwalk">Frogtown Arts Walk</a> in Los Angeles. And keeping this regeneration equitable is center to Newark’s <a href="https://newarkarts.org/newark-creates/">cultural plan</a>. </p>
<p>To quote Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: “Newark should be the place to be for artists. And, I want Newarkers to benefit from their presence.”</p>
<p><em>This story was updated to correct the number of Asphalt Initiative grants.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Alvarez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Art can help anchor places even as they are reshaped.Anthony Alvarez, Lecturer of Arts, Culture & Media, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1964702023-02-07T13:34:48Z2023-02-07T13:34:48ZHurricane Harvey more than doubled the acidity of Texas’ Galveston Bay, threatening oyster reefs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507440/original/file-20230131-4643-5mjeyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5400%2C3564&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Seabirds forage on an oyster shell island on the Texas Gulf Coast.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-american-oystercatcher-haematopus-palliatus-foraging-on-news-photo/1449679985">Jon G. Fuller/VW Pics/ Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people associate hurricanes with high winds, intense rain and rapid flooding on land. But these storms can also change the chemistry of coastal waters. Such shifts are less visible than damage on land, but they can have dire consequences for marine life and coastal ocean ecosystems. </p>
<p>We are oceanographers who study the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=u7D6sQgAAAAJ&hl=en">effects of ocean acidification</a>, including on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MOYxO9MAAAAJ&hl=en">organisms like oysters and corals</a>. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">recent study</a>, we examined how stormwater runoff from Hurricane Harvey in 2017 affected the water chemistry of Galveston Bay and the health of the bay’s oyster reefs. We wanted to understand how extreme rainfall and runoff from hurricanes influenced acidification of bay waters, and how long these changes could last. </p>
<p>Our findings were startling. Hurricane Harvey, which generated massive rainfall in the Houston metropolitan area, delivered a huge pulse of fresh water into Galveston Bay. As a result, the bay was two to four times more acidic than normal for at least three weeks after the storm.</p>
<p>This made bay water corrosive enough to damage oyster shells in the estuary. Because oyster growth and recovery rely on many factors, it is hard to tie specific changes to acidification. However, increased acidification certainly would have made it harder for oyster reefs damaged by Hurricane Harvey to recover. And while our study focused on Galveston Bay, we suspect that similar processes may be occurring in other coastal areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite photo of Houston and the gulf coast immediately after Harvey." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This satellite image, taken six days after Harvey made landfall, shows Galveston Bay and other rivers and bays around Houston filled with brown sediment-laden floodwaters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90866/texas-waters-run-brown-after-harvey">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vast quantities of water</h2>
<p>Scientists predict that climate change will make hurricanes stronger and <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3184/a-force-of-nature-hurricanes-in-a-changing-climate/">increase the amount of rain they produce</a> over the next several decades. Changes in ocean chemistry, caused by runoff from these storms, are becoming an increasing threat to many marine ecosystems, especially coastal reefs built by oysters and corals. </p>
<p><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/estuary.html">Coastal estuaries</a> like Galveston Bay, where rivers meet the sea, are some of the most productive ecosystems in the world. Galveston Bay is the largest bay on the Texas coast and one of the largest in the U.S.; it covers about 600 square miles, roughly half the size of Rhode Island. Its extensive oyster reefs provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145132">about 9% of the national oyster harvest</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/reviewing-hurricane-harveys-catastrophic-rain-and-flooding">Hurricane Harvey</a>, the wettest tropical cyclone in U.S. history, made landfall on the Texas coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 26, 2017. Harvey stalled at the coast for four days, sitting over both land and ocean. </p>
<p>Maintaining contact with warm Gulf of Mexico waters fueled the storm with both energy and rainfall, allowing it to persist and drop extreme amounts of rain directly onto Houston and surrounding areas – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">up to 50 inches in four days</a>. All of that rain and floodwater had to go somewhere, and much of it flowed into Galveston Bay. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YzQGgyrxXiI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">These videos show the scale of flooding across Houston from Hurricane Harvey.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change and ocean acidification</h2>
<p>The ocean acidification issues that we study are a <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warmings-evil-twin-ocean-acidification-19017">well-known effect related to climate change</a>. Human activities, mainly burning fossil fuel, emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The ocean absorbs about one-third of these emissions, which alters ocean chemistry, making seawater more acidic. </p>
<p>Acidification can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/effects-ocean-and-coastal-acidification-marine-life">harm many forms of marine life</a>. It is especially dangerous for animals that build their shells and skeletons out of calcium carbonate, such as oysters and corals. As seawater becomes more acidic, it makes these structures harder to build and easier to erode. </p>
<p>Oysters fuse together as they grow, creating large rocklike underwater reefs that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbFQ5EndLso">protect shorelines from wave erosion</a>. These reefs <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/habitat-conservation/oyster-reef-habitat">provide habitat</a> for other creatures, such as barnacles, anemones and mussels, which in turn serve as food sources for many fish species. </p>
<p>Rising atmospheric CO₂ levels are acidifying oceans worldwide. As our study shows, local events like tropical cyclones can add to global acidification. </p>
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<h2>Stormwater from Harvey caused extreme coastal acidification</h2>
<p>The main cause of the unprecedented acidification that occurred after Hurricane Harvey was the excessive amount of rainfall and runoff that entered Galveston Bay. To help manage large-scale flooding in the Houston area, the city released large volumes of water from reservoirs for more than two months after Harvey. These releases extended the time during which stormwater entered Galveston Bay and increased its acidity. </p>
<p>Scientists use the pH scale to measure how acidic or basic (alkaline) water is. A pH value of 7 is neutral; higher values are basic, and lower values are acidic. The pH scale is logarithmic, so a decrease of one full unit – say, from 8 to 7 – represents a tenfold increase in acidity. </p>
<p>Rainwater is more acidic than either river water or seawater, which pick up minerals from soil that are slightly basic and can balance out absorbed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Rainwater’s pH is around 5.6, compared with <a href="https://datastream.org/en/guide/ph">between 6.5 and 8.2 for rivers</a> and <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification">about 8.1 for seawater</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Th pH scale with values for common substances." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pH scale shows how acidic or basic substances are.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.epa.gov/acidrain/what-acid-rain">USEPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Galveston Bay contains a mix of fresh water from rivers and salty seawater from the Gulf of Mexico – oysters’ preferred habitat. We collected water samples in the bay two weeks after Harvey and found that the bay was made up almost entirely of river water and rainwater from the storm. </p>
<p>Since rainwater, river water and seawater all have different chemistries, we were able to calculate that rainwater made up almost 50% of the water in the bay. This means that acidic rainwater from Harvey replaced the basic seawater within the bay after the storm. The average bay water pH had dropped from 8 to 7.6, a 2.5-fold increase in acidity. Some zones had pH even as low as 7.4 – four times more acidic than normal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar charts showing combinations of seawater, river water and rainwater in Galveston Bay before and after Hurricane Harvey." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These charts show how rainfall and runoff from Hurricane Harvey altered the composition of Galveston Bay after the storm made landfall on August 25, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">Tacey Hicks, modified from Hicks et al., 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This extreme acidification lasted for more than three weeks. Bay waters became corrosive not only to more sensitive larval and juvenile oyster shells, but to adult oyster shells as well. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20378">Scientists had predicted</a> that increasing CO₂ could cause this scale of coastal acidification but did not expect to see it until around the year 2100. </p>
<p>The fresh water from Harvey also caused a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145132">severe oyster die-off</a> in the bay because oysters need slightly salty water to survive. Harvey struck in the middle of oyster spawning season, and acidification may have slowed reef recovery by making it harder for young oysters to form new shells. Officials at the <a href="https://tpwd.texas.gov/">Texas Parks and Wildlife Department</a> have told us that four years later, in late 2021, some Galveston Bay oyster reefs still showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">very low additions of new oysters</a>. </p>
<h2>Other coastal areas at risk</h2>
<p>Only a few studies, including ours, have analyzed how tropical cyclones affect coastal acidification. In our view, however, it is highly possible that other storms have caused the kind of extreme acidification that we detected in the wake of Harvey. </p>
<p>We reviewed the 10 wettest <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcmaxima.html">tropical cyclones in the U.S. since 1900</a> and found that nine, including Harvey, caused large amounts of rain and flooding in coastal areas with bay or estuary ecosystems. Other storms didn’t produce as much rainfall as Harvey, but some of the affected bays were much smaller than Galveston Bay, so less rain would have been needed to replace seawater in the bay and cause a similar level of acidification to what Harvey produced.</p>
<p>We think that this likely has already occurred in other places struck by hurricanes but went unrecorded because scientists weren’t able to measure acidification before and after the storms. As climate change continues to make tropical cyclones larger and wetter, we see storm-induced acidification as a significant threat to coastal ecosystems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tacey Hicks received funding from Texas Sea Grant to support the publication of this study. Tacey Hicks is currently affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Texas Sea Grant as part of the John A Knauss Marine Policy Fellowship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Shamberger receives funding from the National Science Foundation, US Department of Energy, and US Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>Climate change is making oceans more acidic globally. Now, scientists are finding that large storms can send pulses of acidic water into bays and estuaries, further stressing fish and shellfish.Tacey Hicks, PhD Candidate in Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityKathryn Shamberger, Associate Professor of Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976232023-01-17T06:07:49Z2023-01-17T06:07:49ZExtreme storms and flood events cause damage worth billions to ports – and they are most disruptive to small island developing states<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504447/original/file-20230113-23-mqjhs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C14%2C4977%2C3705&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Natural hazards inflict damage on ports worldwide.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/enormous-hurricane-over-atlantic-elements-this-268173704">Harvepino/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Shipping ports are crucial for the global economy. They handle the majority of trade, are industrial and transportation hubs and provide employment. But ports, by their nature, are located in coastal areas or on large rivers and are exposed to natural hazards such as storms and floods as a result. </p>
<p>Natural hazards can cause damage to ports and their surrounding infrastructure, often disrupting a port’s operation. <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/aug15/katrina-ten-years-later.html">Hurricane Katrina</a>, a category five storm that made landfall on the southern US coast in 2005, forced the US ports of New Orleans, Mobile and South Louisiana to <a href="https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJSTL.2014.060800">close for up to four months</a>. The ports together handled almost half of the country’s agricultural exports at the time. </p>
<p>Scientists refer to the physical damage caused by natural hazards and the monetary loss associated with port closures and reconstruction as “climate risks”. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00656-7">Recent research</a> conducted by my colleagues and I analysed the climate risks facing 1,340 of the world’s largest ports in terms of trade flow, including Rotterdam in western Europe, Houston in the US Gulf of Mexico and Singapore and Shanghai in Asia. We estimate the total climate risk to ports, most of which is attributed to tropical cyclones and river flooding, to be worth US$7.6 billion (£6.2 billion) each year.</p>
<p>Large ports in Asia, the Gulf of Mexico and western Europe face the highest damage costs. But, although smaller in absolute terms, asset damage and trade losses are likely to be most disruptive in small island developing states such as Guam in the western Pacific. </p>
<h2>The cost of natural hazards</h2>
<p>Our research combined a global database of port infrastructure assets with detailed information on natural hazards and local “marine extremes”. Marine extremes refer to factors including wind speeds, waves and air temperatures that are specific to particular locations. </p>
<p>We found that 86% of all ports studied may be impacted by more than three types of natural hazard each year, while 50% could be exposed to four or five. Marine extremes are instead likely to cause operational disruption at around 40% of all ports. </p>
<p>The damage caused by natural hazards varies across all of the ports studied. The risk of damages exceeding US$10 million each year affected 160 ports. Yet 21 ports, including Houston, Shanghai, Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico and Rouen in France, are at risk of annual damage exceeding US$50 million. </p>
<p>These ports are located in regions prone to natural hazards. But, as some of the world’s largest ports, they contain a high concentration of valuable assets and are important centres for international trade. Our research revealed that port closures and reconstruction following natural hazards puts US$67 billion of trade at risk every year.</p>
<p>The Port of Houston, for example, is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Houston#:%7E:text=The%20Port%20of%20Houston%20handles,only%20South%20Louisiana%20handling%20more.">second largest port</a> in the US. But as the port is located in the Gulf of Mexico, it experiences frequent extreme weather. In 2017, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a> disrupted the Port of Houston’s operations <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920920305800?via%3Dihub">for around 10 days</a>. </p>
<p>Port closures are a particular issue for small island developing states. These economies are often highly dependent on maritime trade as their limited land mass and resources require that they import virtually everything. </p>
<p>These states also often have lower hazard protection standards and their ports rely on outdated infrastructure. Natural hazards therefore cause severe disruption.</p>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144137/super-typhoon-yutu">Typhoon Yutu</a> forced port operations to close for almost a week at all ports in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The port closures disrupted trade flows and <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/coast-guard-mobilizes-for-typhoon-yutu-response">prevented humanitarian supplies</a> from entering the islands. </p>
<h2>Preparing for extreme weather</h2>
<p>Ports in all countries require infrastructure upgrades that will improve their resilience to hazards and allow them to remain operational all year. This includes upgrading structures like breakwaters to shelter ports from higher waves and installing port equipment that can function under higher wind speeds. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/trade-maritime-transport-trends-pacific">Asian Development Bank</a> is financing a range of initiatives to improve outdated and inefficient port infrastructure across the Pacific. </p>
<p>A project is underway to install stronger foundations and raise the deck level of Papua New Guinea’s Alotau port. And Apia Port, the only international gateway for freight in and out of Samoa, has received finance to reconstruct its breakwater and terminal infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large wave crashing against a breakwater." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504213/original/file-20230112-60681-k3nhwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Breakwaters shelter ports from waves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-waves-hit-tynemouth-pier-stormy-568499947">Dave Head/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>But given the large size, and value, of ports in richer countries, greater investments will be required to reduce the threat of natural hazards in these areas. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EF001543">Previous research</a> suggests that up to US$63 billion will be required overall by the end of the century to raise the height of the world’s existing port terminals. Measures such as these are technically challenging and can be prohibitively expensive. </p>
<p>Many port authorities also <a href="https://unctad.org/webflyer/port-industry-survey-climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation">fail to consider climate change</a> in their long-term planning at present. But climate change will contribute to increasingly severe weather and rising sea levels in the future. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378383921000442?via%3Dihub">One study</a> estimates that if an event the size of Hurricane Katrina were to affect Alabama’s Port of Mobile in 2100, the damage to infrastructure could be up to seven times higher. </p>
<p>Ports are at the forefront of extreme weather and adaptation is urgently needed. Quantifying this risk will guide investment to the ports that need it most.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jasper Verschuur receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)</span></em></p>Natural disasters cause billions in damage to ports around the world each year.Jasper Verschuur, DPhil Student, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923772022-12-12T13:37:14Z2022-12-12T13:37:14ZLocal nonprofits play a key role in recovery from disasters – while also having to get back on their own feet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500071/original/file-20221209-33805-3510zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=200%2C166%2C5359%2C3200&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In mid-2018, nearly a year after Hurricane Harvey, this church's gym in Texas was still serving as a warehouse for donated goods.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bethel-baptist-church-lead-pastor-jaime-garcia-unloads-news-photo/1021656748?adppopup=true">Carolyn Van Houten/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When hurricanes, floods and other kinds of disasters throttle a community, people from all over often rush to give those in need money, bottled water, diapers and all sorts of goods.</p>
<p>These donations often land at the doorsteps of local nonprofits that are then tasked with distributing them. But while these groups help their communities recuperate, they have to get back on their feet too and can falter if they don’t get what they need.</p>
<p>As an urban planning researcher who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AV-vNJUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">focuses on disaster recovery</a>, I have seen that this process is usually <a href="https://www.chamberofecocommerce.com/images/Organizations_at_Risk.pdf">long and difficult for local nonprofits</a> due to their competing responsibilities. Nonprofits must juggle obligations to serve their communities in new ways while still maintaining their usual operations and rebuilding their own facilities.</p>
<h2>Pivoting after Hurricane Harvey</h2>
<p>I led a research project with other scholars for my dissertation about how nonprofits and small businesses fared in <a href="https://tamucoa-juiceboxinteract.netdna-ssl.com/app/uploads/2022/05/Business-Disruption-and-Recover-Post-Hurricane-Harvey-in-Southeast-Texas.pdf">Southeast Texas after Hurricane Harvey</a>. The Category 4 hurricane initially made landfall along the Gulf Coast near Rockport, Texas, in August 2017. The storm <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-has-unloaded-24-5-trillion-gallons-of-water-on-texas-and-louisiana/">dumped more than 30 trillion gallons of rainwater</a> over a six-day period. The equivalent of a <a href="https://www.hcfcd.org/About/Harris-Countys-Flooding-History/Hurricane-Harvey">year’s worth of rain</a> fell in much of the region in less than a week. </p>
<p>The floodwaters damaged or destroyed thousands of homes, businesses, churches and buildings used by other nonprofits. Authorities estimate that Harvey caused more than 60 deaths and some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/25/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html">US$125 billion in economic damage</a>. </p>
<p>We interviewed the directors of 30 nonprofits located in Beaumont and Port Arthur, two small Southeast Texas cities, to understand the challenges they experienced as they helped their communities while rebuilding their own operations. The nonprofits included churches and other faith-based institutions, health care providers, private schools and providers of other educational services.</p>
<p>We encountered church staff who had rescued people, and nonprofits, including health care organizations, social service groups and private schools, that <a href="https://www.goldenpasslng.com/newsroom/foundation-for-setx-announces-golden-pass-hurricane-harvey-recovery-fund-grant-recipients">essentially became relief groups</a> by giving away water, clothes and other essential items to those in need. </p>
<p>My research team and I learned that the 30 heavy-lifting nonprofits we studied played an important role in helping their communities recover – regardless of their usual work and mission.</p>
<h2>Role of leadership</h2>
<p>In some cases, whether an organization could thrive after Hurricane Harvey was also influenced by who was leading it.</p>
<p>A total of 21 of the nonprofits had leaders who were women, veterans, racial minorities or had more than one of those characteristics. These organizations reported higher levels of damage, longer disruptions of their power, water and telephone access, and slower recovery of operations compared with the other nine organizations, all of which were led by white men. </p>
<p>This disparity echoed other findings that groups led by women, <a href="https://www.swords-to-plowshares.org/toolbox-article/the-hard-truth-about-veteran-funding">veterans</a> and people of color often <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/nonprofit-black-women-racial-discrimination/2021/07/11/e23cb810-d2da-11eb-a53a-3b5450fdca7a_story.html">get less funding</a>. </p>
<p>The local nonprofits in these small cities that tended to fare best throughout the recovery process were those that received support from larger nonprofits in neighboring cities; groups with ample savings, donations, staff and volunteers; and those with access to disaster recovery information and cleaning supplies.</p>
<h2>Serving many roles in their communities</h2>
<p>While even the smallest nonprofits generally do serve multiple roles, they often acquire new responsibilities after disasters. We found that 12 of the 30 nonprofits found themselves offering new services after Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<p>For example, several churches that primarily held religious services for small groups of congregants became distribution centers serving the entire community – including people with other faith traditions. These churches distributed food, diapers, clothes, gift cards and cleaning supplies. </p>
<p>Close ties with their communities equipped the local nonprofits we studied to pitch in after Harvey by becoming distribution sites. Some of the organizations identified families that were in need but may not have wanted to collect supplies from a public distribution site. </p>
<p>Some of these nonprofits helped emergency responders quickly locate and identify people who had preexisting conditions that had prevented their evacuation.</p>
<p>Several of the groups also used their connections with bilingual neighbors to help the responders <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764007310524">convey important information</a> in languages like Spanish and Vietnamese to help local residents who hadn’t mastered English obtain trustworthy information.</p>
<h2>Survival and recovery</h2>
<p>As these nonprofits supported the local community, they themselves had to deal with their own hardships caused by Hurricane Harvey. We found that nearly half needed to repair or replace offices, entire buildings, inventory, machinery or other items. </p>
<p>Many had to find a new place to operate or replace damaged equipment. Several said they lost staff and volunteers who moved away, changed jobs or even died as a result of the storm. Those disruptions interfered with their ability to keep up the services they usually provide and to sustain the new operations their post-Harvey reality required.</p>
<p>Being forced to make do with less money and fewer staff members and volunteers dragged out the recovery process. A year after the storm, all 30 of the nonprofits were still operating, but 24 of them hadn’t fully resumed all of their pre-Harvey operations and programming or completed repairs to their damaged buildings. </p>
<p>More recent data I have collected indicates that many of the 30 nonprofits still had not fully recovered by 2022 – five years after Hurricane Harvey. </p>
<h2>Impact of disasters on nonprofits</h2>
<p>Other researchers have observed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23303131.2021.1946455">donations to local nonprofits increase</a> immediately after disasters. But those funds dramatically decrease after the initial response and rescue phase. Those local nonprofits are then left to fend for themselves as they manage their own recovery. </p>
<p>Many of the organizations we studied said they needed more funding after Harvey to continue providing their usual services while also taking on local disaster recovery efforts.</p>
<p>Most, even if they got new funding, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11266-021-00415-w">couldn’t use it to quickly bounce back</a>.</p>
<p>It is important to acknowledge that this small data set, taken from two small communities in Texas a year after Hurricane Harvey made landfall, isn’t necessarily representative of what always happens to local nonprofits after a disaster.</p>
<p>However, my findings are in line with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764215591183">previous research</a> about what happens to nonprofits after a disaster: It <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24459718">deprives their communities</a> of much-needed support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joy Semien is a funded doctoral candidate at Texas A&M University. She receives funding from NSF and NOAA-RISA. She also owns L.E.E.D. With Joy LLC, where she consults on various research projects. </span></em></p>Research conducted in Southeast Texas casts light on the toll disasters can take on groups that serve as pillars of their communities.Joy Semien, Research Assistant at the Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892932022-08-25T12:27:09Z2022-08-25T12:27:09ZAmerica’s summer of floods: What cities can learn from today’s climate crises to prepare for tomorrow’s<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480740/original/file-20220824-25-dci54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5425%2C3608&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flash flooding made a mess in Dallas in August 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DallasFlooding/61d6c07f90564d0ba48e5f60c63827e9/photo">AP Photo/LM Otero</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Powerful storms across the South, following flash floods in Dallas, <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/death-valley-experiences-1-000-year-rain-event.htm">Death Valley</a>, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lsx/July262022Flooding">St. Louis</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">Yellowstone and Appalachia</a>, have left cities across the U.S. questioning their own security in a warming climate.</p>
<p>Dallas was hit with <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth">nearly 15 inches</a> of rain that turned roads into rivers and poured into homes starting Aug. 21, 2022. Neighborhoods in <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/parts-of-deep-south-flooded-after-heavy-rainfall">Jackson, Mississippi</a>, were inundated a few days later as the Pearl River rose and a water treatment plant breakdown left the city without clean drinking water. In late July, extreme storms struck the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">mountains of eastern Kentucky</a>, sending rivers sweeping through valley towns and triggering mudslides that killed more than three dozen people. </p>
<p>Floods are complex events, and they are about more than just heavy rain. Each community has its own unique geography and climate that can exacerbate flooding, so preparing to deal with future floods has to be tailored to the community.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=viGxwOwAAAAJ&hl=en">I work with</a> a <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/about/team/">center at the University of Michigan</a> that helps communities turn climate knowledge into projects that can reduce the harm of future climate disasters. The recent floods provide case studies that can help cities everywhere manage the increasing risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Houses in a steep valley are flooded to their rooflines with muddy water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480738/original/file-20220824-24-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme storms in mountainous regions like eastern Kentucky can quickly funnel floodwater into valleys, creating different hazards than flatter cities would face from the same storm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/homes-along-gross-loop-off-of-ky-15-are-flooded-with-water-news-photo/1242172582">Arden S. Barnes/For The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Flood risks are rising</h2>
<p>The first thing the recent floods tell us is that the climate is changing.</p>
<p>In the past, it might have made sense to consider a flood a rare and random event – communities could just build back. But the statistical distribution of weather events and natural disasters is shifting.</p>
<p>What might have been a 1-in-500-year event may become a <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-100-year-flood-a-hydrologist-explains-162827">1-in-100-year event</a>, on the way to becoming a 1-in-50-year event. Hurricane Harvey in 2017 delivered Houston’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/houston-is-experiencing-its-third-500-year-flood-in-3-years-how-is-that-possible/">third 500-year flood</a> in the span of three years. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/06/10/ellicott-city-flood-projects-underway/">Ellicott City, Maryland</a> saw catastrophic floods in 2016 and 2018, and the town flooded again in June 2022.</p>
<p>Basic physics points to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">rising risks ahead</a>: Global greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global average temperatures. Warming leads to increasing precipitation and more intense downpours, and this increases flood potential.</p>
<p><iframe id="zBAAz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zBAAz/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Communities aren’t prepared</h2>
<p>Recent floods are revealing vulnerabilities in how communities are designed and managed.</p>
<p>Pavement is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086480">major contributor</a> to urban flooding, because water cannot be absorbed and it runs off quickly. Similarly, after a forest fire or <a href="https://youtu.be/CyGmRaadsPE">extended drought</a>, <a href="https://www.noble.org/news/publications/ag-news-and-views/2013/june/healthy-soil-aids-drought-and-flood-management/">water runs off of soil</a> rather than soaking in. This can overwhelm drainage systems and pile up debris that can clog pipes and culverts.</p>
<p>Failures in maintaining infrastructure, such as levees and storm drains, are a common contributor to flooding. </p>
<p>If the infrastructure is well designed and maintained, flood damage can be greatly reduced. However, increasingly, researchers have found that the engineering specifications for drainage pipes and other infrastructure are <a href="https://time.com/6094221/hurricane-ida-engineering-protection/">no longer adequate</a> for the increasing severity of storms and amounts of precipitation. This can lead to <a href="https://www.nps.gov/yell/planyourvisit/flood-recovery.htm">roads being washed out and communities being cut off</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four maps show how risk of extreme precipitation increased in some regions, particularly the Northeast, and projections of increasing rainfall in the East in the coming decades." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even in a future with low greenhouse gas emissions, extreme precipitation events will be more likely in parts of the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">National Climate Assessment 2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The increasing risks affect not only engineering standards, but <a href="https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey-houstons-flooding-made-worse-by-unchecked-urban-development-and-wetland-destruction/">zoning laws that govern where homes can be built</a> and building codes that describe minimum standards for safety, as well as permitting and environmental regulations.</p>
<p>By addressing these issues now, communities can anticipate and avoid damage rather than only reacting when it’s too late.</p>
<h2>Four lessons from case studies</h2>
<p>The many effects associated with flooding show why a holistic approach to planning for climate change is necessary, and what communities can learn from one another. For example, case studies show that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Floods can damage resources that are essential in flood recovery, such as <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article264072046.html">roads, bridges</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LatLRwrrpRY">hospitals</a>. Considering future risks when determining where and how to build these resources enhances the <a href="https://toolkit.climate.gov/case-studies/after-record-breaking-rains-major-medical-centers-hazard-mitigation-plan-improves">ability to recover from future disasters</a>. In Jackson, an aging <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/floods-knock-out-drinking-water-supply-jackson-mississippi-2022-08-30/">water treatment plant</a> stopped working, leaving people without safe running water.</p></li>
<li><p>Flood damage does not occur in isolation. Downpours can <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/least-13-killed-flooding-mudslides-fire-scarred-southern-california">trigger mudslides</a>, make sewers more vulnerable and turn <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-maps-show-us-vastly-underestimates-contamination-risk-at-old-industrial-sites-186620">manufacturing facilities into toxic contamination risks</a>. These can become broad-scale dangers, extending far beyond individual communities.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a boat peers under sheeting along a level. The river side is higher than the dry side across the levee." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480733/original/file-20220824-26-3i57gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A crew inspects a levee constructed around a medical center to hold back floodwater from the Mississippi River in Vidalia, La., in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dennis-barkemeyer-inspects-a-levee-constructed-around-a-news-photo/114243924">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p>It is difficult for an individual or a community to take on even the technical aspects of flood preparation alone – there is too much interconnectedness. Protective measures like levees or channels might protect one neighborhood but <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2021/how-houston-floods/">worsen the flood risk downstream</a>. Planners should identify the appropriate scale, such as the entire drainage basin of a creek or river, and form important relationships early in the planning process.</p></li>
<li><p>Natural disasters and the ways communities respond to them can also amplify <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-flood-maps-show-us-damage-rising-26-in-next-30-years-due-to-climate-change-alone-and-the-inequity-is-stark-175958">disparities in wealth</a> and resources. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/27/unfair-fema-climate-program-floods-00032080">Social justice and ethical considerations</a> need to be brought into planning at the beginning.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Scenarios: How to manage complexity</h2>
<p>In the communities that my colleagues and I have worked with through the <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/">Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment</a> center, we have found an increasing awareness of floods and, more generally, the challenges of a warming climate. </p>
<p>Many communities have some capacity to deal with weather-related hazards, but they realize that past practices will not be adequate in the future.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man stands next to a long metal door that opens from the ground and is part of a flood control system for the building behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480735/original/file-20220824-16-d0ker3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tim Edwards, facility manager for the National Archives, with the flood control gate system that kept a 2019 storm from flooding the building in Washington, DC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tim-edwards-facility-manager-for-the-national-archives-with-news-photo/1155241152">Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have found that by focusing on vulnerabilities, discussions about future climate risk become more real. Communities start to recognize the interconnectedness of zoning, storm drains and parks, for example, and the value of clearing of debris from stream beds. They also see the importance of engaging regional stakeholders to avoid fragmented and ineffective adaptation responses.</p>
<p>We use <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/engagement/scenario-planning/">scenario planning</a> to help officials examine several plausible climate futures as they develop strategies to deal with specific management challenges. Examining case studies and past floods provides a way to consider future flooding events from an experience base of known community vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>In most exercises I have participated in, local officials’ instinct is to protect property and persist without changing where people live. However, in many cases, that might only buy time before people will have <a href="https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/degrees-of-change-migration/">little option but to move</a>. Scenario planning can bring focus to these difficult choices and help individuals and <a href="https://michigantoday.umich.edu/2022/06/24/how-good-are-your-coping-skills/">communities gain control</a> over the effects of climate change.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Aug. 26, 2022, with flooding in Mississippi.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189293/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Rood receives funding from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation. He is a co-principal investigator at the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment Center at the University of Michigan.</span></em></p>Flood risks are rising as the climate warms. The risks are complex, as a levee or new roadway in one place can worsen flooding somewhere else.Richard B. (Ricky) Rood, Professor of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866202022-08-01T12:28:10Z2022-08-01T12:28:10ZFlood maps show US vastly underestimates contamination risk at old industrial sites<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476865/original/file-20220801-70473-vod0jt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=226%2C0%2C2166%2C1451&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maywood Riverfront Park was built on the site of eight former industrial properties in Los Angeles County.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/maywood-riverfront-park-is-closed-to-the-public-because-of-news-photo/564026071">Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/urban-flooding-in-the-united-states">Floodwaters are a growing risk for many American cities</a>, threatening to displace not only people and housing but also the land-based pollution left behind by earlier industrial activities.</p>
<p>In 2019, researchers at the U.S. Government Accountability Office <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-73">investigated climate-related risks</a> at the 1,571 most polluted properties in the country, also known as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/superfund/superfund-national-priorities-list-npl">Superfund sites</a> on the federal National Priorities List. They found an alarming 60% were in locations at risk of climate-related events, including wildfires and flooding.</p>
<p>As troubling as those numbers sound, our research shows that that’s just the proverbial <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/sites-unseen">tip of the iceberg</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/socf.12639">Many times that number</a> of potentially contaminated former industrial sites exist. Most were never documented by government agencies, which began collecting data on industrially contaminated lands only in the 1980s. Today, many of these sites have been redeveloped for other uses such as homes, buildings or parks. </p>
<p>For communities near these sites, the flooding of contaminated land is worrisome because it threatens to compromise common pollution containment methods, such as capping contaminated land with clean soil. It can also transport legacy contaminants into surrounding soils and waterways, putting the health and safety of urban ecosystems and residents at risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A boat sits by a dock outside a new building along the waterway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474918/original/file-20220719-20-6jl233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York developers are planning thousands of housing units along the Gowanus Canal, a notoriously contaminated industrial area and waterway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/general-view-of-the-gowanus-canal-and-a-new-residential-news-photo/876795968">Epics/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We study urban pollution and environmental change. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7">recent study</a>, we conducted a comprehensive assessment by combining historical manufacturing directories, which locate the majority of former industrial facilities, with flood risk projections from the <a href="https://firststreet.org/">First Street Foundation</a>. The projections use climate models and historic data to assess future risk for each property.</p>
<p>The results show that the GAO’s 2019 report vastly underestimated the scale and scope of the risks many communities will face in the decades ahead.</p>
<h2>Pollution risks in 6 cities</h2>
<p>We started our study by collecting the location and flood risk for former industrial sites in six very different cities facing varying types of flood risk over the coming years: Houston; Minneapolis; New Orleans; Philadelphia; Portland, Oregon; and Providence, Rhode Island. </p>
<p>These former industrial sites have been called <a href="https://www.mcgrawcenter.org/stories/ghosts-of-polluters-past/">ghosts of polluters past</a>. While the smokestacks and factories of these <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-beneath-to-manage-toxic-contamination-in-cities-study-their-industrial-histories-104897">relics</a> may no longer be visible, much of their legacy pollution likely remains. </p>
<p>In just these six cities, we found <a href="https://osf.io/dnjvg/">over 6,000 sites</a> at risk of flooding in the next 30 years – far more than recognized by the EPA. Using census data, we estimate that nearly 200,000 residents live on blocks with at least one flood-prone relic industrial site and its legacy contaminants. </p>
<p><iframe id="zNay3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zNay3/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Without detailed records, we can’t assess the extent of contamination at each relic site or how that contamination might spread during flooding. But the sheer number of flood-prone sites suggests the U.S. has a widespread problem it will need to solve.</p>
<p>The highest-risk areas tended to be clustered along waterways where industry and worker housing once thrived, areas that often became home to low-income communities.</p>
<h2>Legacy of the industrial Northeast</h2>
<p>In Providence, an example of an older industrial city, we found thousands of at-risk relic sites scattered along Narragansett Bay and the floodplains of the Providence and Woonasquatucket Rivers. </p>
<p>Over the decades, as these factories manufactured textiles, machine tools, jewelry and other products, they released untold quantities of environmentally persistent contaminants, including heavy metals like lead and cadmium and volatile organic chemicals, into the surrounding soils and water. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map with dots, primarily along waterways." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474765/original/file-20220719-20-4osyy5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood-prone relic industrial sites in Providence, R.I.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7">Marlow, et al. 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the Rhode Island Department of Health recently reported <a href="https://ecori.org/2020-3-4-pfas-found-in-drinking-water-throughout-ri/">widespread drinking water contamination</a> from <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-pfas-and-why-is-the-epa-warning-about-them-in-drinking-water-an-environmental-health-scientist-explains-185015">PFAS</a>, often referred to as “<a href="https://www.ewg.org/what-are-pfas-chemicals">forever chemicals</a>,” which are used to create stain- and water-resistant products and can be toxic. </p>
<p>The tendency for older factories to locate close to the water, where they would have easy access to power and transportation, puts these sites at risk today from extreme storms and sea-level rise. Many of these were small factories easily overlooked by regulators.</p>
<h2>Chemicals, oil and gas</h2>
<p>Newer cities, like Houston, are also vulnerable. Houston faces especially high risks given the scale of nearby oil, gas and chemical manufacturing infrastructure and its lack of formal zoning regulations.</p>
<p>In August 2017, historic rains from Hurricane Harvey triggered more than <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-03-hurricane-harvey-toxic-impact-deeper.html">100 industrial spills</a> in the greater Houston area, releasing more than a half-billion gallons of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-spills/oil-and-chemical-spills-from-hurricane-harvey-big-but-dwarfed-by-katrina-idUSKCN1BQ1E8">hazardous chemicals and wastewater</a> into the local environment, including well-known carcinogens such as dioxin, ethylene and PCBs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Maps with dots widespread in the city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474766/original/file-20220719-22-ug93mg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood-prone relic industrial sites in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7">Marlow, et al. 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even that event doesn’t reflect the full extent of the industrially polluted lands at growing risk of flooding throughout the city. We found nearly 2,000 relic industrial sites at an elevated risk of flooding in the Houston area; the GAO report raised concerns about only 15.</p>
<p>Many of these properties are concentrated in or near communities of color. In all six cities in our study, we found that the strongest predictor of a neighborhood’s containing a flood-prone site of former hazardous industry is the proportion of nonwhite and non-English-speaking residents.</p>
<h2>Keeping communities safe</h2>
<p>As temperatures rise, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">air can hold more moisture</a>, leading to strong downpours. Those downpours can trigger flooding, particularly in paved urban areas with less open ground for the water to sink in. Climate change also contributes to sea-level rise, as coastal communities like <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2020/beating-back-the-tides">Annapolis, Maryland</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-20-foot-sea-wall-wont-save-miami-how-living-structures-can-help-protect-the-coast-and-keep-the-paradise-vibe-165076">Miami</a> are discovering with <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tide-flood-risk-is-accelerating-putting-coastal-economies-at-risk-164481">increasing days of high-tide flooding</a>. </p>
<p>Keeping communities safe in a changing climate will mean cleaning up flood-prone industrial relic sites. In some cases, companies can be held financially responsible for the cleanup, but often, the costs fall to taxpayers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text">infrastructure bill</a> that Congress passed in 2021 includes <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/#environmentalremediation">$21 billion for environmental remediation</a>. As a key element of new “green” infrastructure, some of that money could be channeled into flood-prone areas or invested in developing pollution remediation techniques that do not fail when flooded.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large brick housing complex with people sitting in lawn chairs outside. A sign on the lawn is in Spanish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474914/original/file-20220719-24-o50uhs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The West Calumet Housing Complex in East Chicago, Ind., was built on the site of an old lead refinery. It was closed down after children there were found to have elevated levels of lead in their blood. The sign reads: ‘Do not play in the dirt or next to shredded wood mulch.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LeadContaminationEastChicago/8d095ee761a64ca09dcb3e4a3baedfb7/photo">AP Photo/Tae-Gyun Kim</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our findings suggest the entire process for prioritizing and cleaning up relic sites needs to be reconsidered to incorporate future flood risk.</p>
<p>Flood and pollution risks are not separate problems. Dealing with them effectively requires deepening relationships with local residents who bear disproportionate risks. If communities are involved from the beginning, the benefits of green redevelopment and mitigation efforts <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/hud-says-texas-agency-discriminated-in-flood-relief-funding">can extend to a much larger population</a>. </p>
<p>One approach suggested by our work is to move beyond individual properties as the basis of environmental hazard and risk assessment and concentrate on affected ecosystems.</p>
<p>Focusing on individual sites misses the historical and geographical scale of industrial pollution. Concentrating remediation on meaningful ecological units, such as watersheds, can create healthier environments with fewer risks when the land floods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Marlow is supported by the NYUAD Center for Interacting Urban Networks (CITIES), funded by Tamkeen under the NYUAD Research Institute Award CG001. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James R. Elliott has received funding from the National Science Foundation for research related to this piece.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Frickel has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Environmental Health for research related to this article. </span></em></p>Climate change is colliding with old factory sites where soil or water contamination still exist, and the most vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.Thomas Marlow, Postdoctoral Fellow in the Center for Interacting Urban Networks (CITIES) at NYU Abu Dhabi, New York UniversityJames R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice UniversityScott Frickel, Professor of Sociology and Environment and Society, Brown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625872021-06-23T12:26:20Z2021-06-23T12:26:20ZFor flood-prone cities, seawalls raise as many questions as they answer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407732/original/file-20210622-23-juxm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1957%2C1305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flooding caused by high tides in a Miami neighborhood on June 19, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FloridaFloodingRisks/3d2ecc80f0094fd091d094a965c5eaa8/photo">AP Photo/Ellis Rua</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The oceans are rising at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2020.01.016">an accelerating rate</a>, and millions of people are in the way. Rising tides are already affecting cities along low-lying shorelines, such as the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, where <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/recurrent-tidal-flooding.html">sunny-day flooding has become common</a> during high tides. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.usace.army.mil/">U.S. Army Corps of Engineers</a>, whose mission includes maintaining waterways and reducing disaster risks, has proposed building large and expensive seawalls to protect a number of U.S. cities, neighborhoods and shorelines from coastal storms and rising seas. <a href="https://www.coastalconservationleague.org/projects/charleston-peninsula-coastal-flood-risk-management-study-by-the-us-army-corps-of-engineers/">Charleston</a>, <a href="https://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Projects-in-New-York/New-York-New-Jersey-Harbor-Tributaries-Focus-Area-Feasibility-Study/">New York City</a> and <a href="https://www.swg.usace.army.mil/Business-With-Us/Planning-Environmental-Branch/Documents-for-Public-Review/">the Houston-Galveston metro area</a> are currently considering proposals to build barriers in response to hurricane surges and sea level rise, and the Corps recently published a draft proposal for a seawall for <a href="https://www.saj.usace.army.mil/MiamiDadeBackBayCSRMFeasibilityStudy/">Miami</a>.</p>
<p>As a scientist who studies the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PCczXC0AAAAJ&hl=en">evolution and development of coastlines and the impacts of sea level rise</a>, I believe that large-scale seawall proposals raise important long-term questions that residents, urban leaders and elected officials at all levels of government need to consider carefully before they invest billions of dollars. In my view, this approach is almost certainly a short-term strategy that will protect only a few cities, and will protect only selected portions of those cities effectively.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZzZdqQ11tiI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Cities like Charleston, South Carolina, that are experiencing increasingly frequent tidal flooding need strategies for adapting to rising seas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coastal flooding is here</h2>
<p>The extent of high tide flooding in low-elevation Atlantic coastal cities is <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook_30June2020.pdf">well documented</a>, and so are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/">future trends</a>. In a 2017 study, the Union of Concerned Scientists assessed chronic flooding risks in 52 large coastal cities and found that by 2030, the 30 cities most at risk can expect <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/when-rising-seas-hit-home">at least two dozen tidal floods yearly on average</a>. The study defined tidal flooding as seawater encroaching into at least 10% of a city. </p>
<p>These cities include New Haven, Connecticut; Boston; Philadelphia;, Washington, D.C.; Baltimore; Wilmington, Delaware; Norfolk, Virginia; Charleston, South Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; Jacksonville, Florida; and Miami. Cumulatively, they are home to about 6 million people. The study projected that by 2045, most of them will experience over 100 days of flooding annually.</p>
<p>This flooding won’t just become more frequent – it also will become deeper, extend farther inland and last longer as sea levels continue to rise. Greater encroachment will cause increasing harm to infrastructure, development and property. </p>
<p>The Army Corps of Engineers’ recent proposals include building an 8-mile (12.8-kilometer) seawall around Charleston at a cost of <a href="https://www.coastalconservationleague.org/projects/charleston-peninsula-coastal-flood-risk-management-study-by-the-us-army-corps-of-engineers/">nearly US$2 billion</a>; a 1-mile (1.6-kilometer) wall for Miami-Dade, with a price tag of <a href="https://www.coastalnewstoday.com/post/fl-miamis-4-billion-plan-to-combat-sea-level-rise-has-radical-urban-ideas">nearly $4.6 billion</a>; and a 6-mile (9.6-kilometer) barrier to shield portions of New York City and New Jersey, at an estimated cost of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/nyregion/sea-wall-nyc.html">$119 billion</a>. None of these investments would protect other Atlantic coastal cities <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook_30June2020.pdf">already experiencing high tide flooding</a>.</p>
<p>While these proposed projects differ slightly, they each involve major barriers or seawalls along the shoreline, or just offshore in the case of New York and New Jersey. The structures are intended to protect these areas from hurricanes and storm surges, and from some uncertain level of future sea level rise. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic of proposed flood-control system for Galveston Bay" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407734/original/file-20210622-19-1y2oizn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed ‘Ike Dike’ to protect Galveston Bay and the Houston ship channel from flooding includes storm surge gates, seawalls along the shore and dunes and beaches engineered to absorb floodwaters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coastal-texas-hub-usace-swg.hub.arcgis.com/">USACE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coverage and costs</h2>
<p>There are a number of key issues that I believe any city considering a major seawall proposal should consider. Here are some of the most critical questions: </p>
<p>– Who and what will be protected by these large walls, and at what cost? With so many U.S. cities already experiencing coastal flooding, and current proposals focusing on very large metropolitan areas, there are important questions about which portions of cities would be surrounded by walls and how much to spend. For example, New York City has a <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-nw-nyt-new-york-flooding-sea-wall-20200117-fsiy5kf2mzaz3czzl7w453lzne-story.html">520-mile coastline</a>, but seawall proposals there focus only on protecting lower Manhattan.</p>
<p>– How many years of protection might these barriers provide, and are they just short-term solutions? Flooding can result from short-term extreme events, such as hurricanes, and also from long-term sea level rise. What time frame should these projects be designed to address?</p>
<p>– Who selects which cities or areas to protect? To date, proposals have come from the Army Corps of Engineers. Which officials and local, state or federal agencies should be involved in making these decisions and establishing policies that will guide responses to future sea level rise? </p>
<p>– Do people really want to live behind walls? In New York, Miami and elsewhere, residents have objected to <a href="https://miami-grid.com/2021/03/01/sea-wall/">flood walls that would block views</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1400528750417125376"}"></div></p>
<p>– Who will pay for the walls? Proposing multibillion-dollar walls is one thing, but where will the funds come from to actually construct and maintain these massive structures? In Texas, where the proposed “Ike Dike” across Galveston Bay is projected to cost some $26 billion, the Legislature is considering <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Bill-to-create-taxing-entity-to-pay-for-Ike-16197375.php">creating a special flood-control district</a> with the power to levy property taxes within its boundaries to raise the state’s share.</p>
<p>– Would these structures encourage additional development behind the walls? Typically, providing flood control encourages new construction in the now-protected area, which increases future liabilities and losses when walls are overtopped or fail.</p>
<p>– What other long-term options should be considered? Boston recently considered flood barriers for either its outer or inner harbor, but rejected these options in favor of softer options like <a href="https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/2021/01/04/bpda-climate-resilient-zoning-plan-boston-flooding">climate-resilient zoning</a> with special requirements for new projects in flood-prone areas.</p>
<p>– Can cities that reject seawalls agree on thresholds or trigger points for taking other steps, such as using some combination of incentives and mandates to move people out of high-risk areas? Norfolk, one of the most flood-prone cities on the Atlantic coast, has developed a plan that prioritizes development in less-vulnerable zones, which it calls “<a href="https://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27768/Vision-2100---FINAL?bidId=">neighborhoods of the future</a>.”</p>
<p>Such decisions will affect coastal communities, infrastructure and residents for decades into the future, and I believe it is time to meet this crisis head-on. Sea level rise is a complex problem with no easy or inexpensive solution, but the sooner the science is understood and accepted, and everyone who is affected has an opportunity to get involved, the sooner cities can make plans. In the long run, there is no way to hold back the Atlantic Ocean.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Griggs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many coastal US cities are contending with increasingly frequent and severe tidal flooding as sea levels rise. Some are considering building seawalls, but this strategy is not simple or cheap.Gary Griggs, Director, Institute of Marine Sciences and Distinguished Professor of Earth & Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa CruzLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1163242019-05-24T10:43:24Z2019-05-24T10:43:24ZAs Airbnb grows, this is exactly how much it’s bringing down hotel prices and occupancy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276198/original/file-20190523-187165-nvs9x7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Airbnb is a growing threat to the major hotel chains. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/indianapolis-circa-march-2018-indy-downtown-1052905802?src=sXQZjdKt6mHixDuufMBzBA-1-17">Jonathan Weiss/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Airbnb has grown exponentially since its founding in 2008 and is expected to soon go public in an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-airbnb-ipo/airbnb-ceo-says-co-will-be-ready-for-ipo-later-this-year-cnbc-idUSKCN1S51M9">initial public offering</a> that would rank it among the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/19/18272274/airbnb-valuation-common-stock-hoteltonight">world’s most valuable hotel companies</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/25/18276296/airbnb-hotels-hilton-marriott-us-spending">U.S. consumers spent more money on Airbnb</a> last year than they did on Hilton and its subsidiaries, the second-biggest hotel chain in the world, which was founded a century ago. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MXFcg7EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">an expert in hospitality management</a>, I was curious to know precisely how all this growth has affected the hotel industry – and just how scared hotels should be.</p>
<p><iframe id="AR5CS" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AR5CS/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Exponential growth</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.11.008">Research I recently conducted</a> with colleagues Makarand Mody and Courtney C. Suess studied Airbnb’s impact on hotels’ performance in 10 major U.S. cities to determine how the fast-growing company has influenced three key metrics: room prices, hotel revenues and occupancy rates. Our research included data from 2008 to 2017 in Boston, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, New York, San Francisco and Seattle.</p>
<p>In those cities, the number of properties on Airbnb – from room shares to entire houses – surged from just 51 in its first year of operation to more to 50,000 five years later and to over half a million in 2017.</p>
<p><iframe id="cvpQX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cvpQX/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Some of this growth can be attributed to consumers’ <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312046857_The_Role_of_Authenticity_in_Airbnb_Experiences">increasing demand</a> for authentic lodging experiences – in people’s real homes – at affordable prices. </p>
<p>But another important factor is the <a href="https://www.frmjournal.com/news/news_detail.airbnb-lets-may-be-unsafe-due-to-lack-of-regulation.html">lack of regulation</a> Airbnb faced during its first decades, which gave it more flexibility and made it easier to add new properties to its inventory. </p>
<p>While this is now changing as <a href="https://www.cntraveler.com/galleries/2016-06-22/places-with-strict-airbnb-laws">cities clamp down</a>, this provided Airbnb with a significant competitive advantage against the hotel industry. Indeed, the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/112414/airbnb-brings-sharing-economy-hotels.asp">typical regulatory framework</a> in cities across America means it can take several years to add a new hotel to the market and requires permits, adherence to safety codes and more tax collection. </p>
<h2>A significant impact</h2>
<p>And our study showed that these advantages translated into a significant impact on the hotel industry in terms of revenues, prices and occupancy rates. </p>
<p>Specifically, we found that every 1% increase in the number of Airbnb properties decreased the average revenue per room by 0.02%. Although this impact seems small, consider Airbnb’s phenomenal year-over-year growth rate when measuring the company’s impact on hotel room revenues. Accordingly, every time Airbnb’s supply doubles – which is its average yearly pace since inception – hotel revenues fall 2%. </p>
<p>While it’s hard to convert this into dollar amounts given the statistical nature of our analysis, we crunched the data on New York City and found that total potential hotel revenue lost to Airbnb may have totaled US$365 million in 2016 alone. </p>
<p>The impact on average room prices and occupancy rates was similar but smaller. Room prices fell 0.003% to 0.03% for every 1% increase in Airbnb supply, while hotel occupancy declined by 0.008% to 0.1%. </p>
<h2>Bearing down on luxury</h2>
<p>Although Airbnb was initially perceived to be a potential threat to economy hotels – defined as the bottom 20% in terms of average price – we found that Airbnb also had a significant impact on the luxury segment – or the top 15%. </p>
<p>That suggests the company has successfully pushed to provide more unique experiences across the spectrum, and now there’s a large inventory of more <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-29/airbnb-to-offer-200-new-luxury-suites-at-rockefeller-plaza">“luxury” experiences on the platform</a> where one can rent designer homes and unique accommodations like cabins, boats and even treehouses – all of which tend to be in the higher price range. </p>
<p>Our findings also showed that midscale and independent hotels were the least hurt by Airbnb’s increasing supply, probably because both have very similar price points. Another possible reason is that people who chose independent hotels perceived those properties to be more authentic compared to chain hotels, and so those consumers were less motivated to switch from independent hotels to Airbnb.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276201/original/file-20190523-187172-16ktaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Airbnb’s luxury offerings – including treehouses – have manage to snag significant revenue from hotels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Airbnb-Renovations/93d0ba1b77cc4815a61446ffe5e595d2/7/0">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Airbnb’s continuing threat</h2>
<p>These results collectively suggest that Airbnb appears to have taken a slice of the pie from the hotel industry. </p>
<p>The question now is will that phenomenal growth continue? </p>
<p>Airbnb <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel-hospitality/420624-airbnb-launches-arabic-website-amid-63-growth-in-uae-visitors">continues</a> to grow its <a href="https://www.travelpulse.com/news/hotels-and-resorts/airbnbs-growth-worries-mexico-hoteliers.html">supply of properties</a> <a href="https://www.eturbonews.com/251935/off-the-beaten-track-thai-destinations-experiencing-explosive-airbnb-growth/">around the world</a>, and it is clear to me that the company represents a permanent challenge to hotel chains. </p>
<p>While there are efforts to regulate the home rentals that makes up the Airbnb properties and other sharing platforms – which could curb its growth – decisions on how to regulate these platforms <a href="https://skift.com/2019/02/12/airbnb-isnt-going-anywhere-so-why-arent-cities-regulating-it-more/">have not been straightforward</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, hoteliers should continue to fear Airbnb.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tarik Dogru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The number of Airbnb properties has exploded since its founding in 2008. A hospitality management expert looked at how this has hurt hotels.Tarik Dogru, Assistant Professor of Hospitality Management, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048972018-12-20T11:33:41Z2018-12-20T11:33:41ZWhat lies beneath: To manage toxic contamination in cities, study their industrial histories<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251022/original/file-20181217-185243-1t3dsl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mural at Rockaway Brewing Company in Long Island City, Queens, New York, a longtime industrial and transportation hub that now is rapidly redeveloping.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Amazon-HQ-Two-Cities/58557d8f018c4edc9c85401ead978738/9/0">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Philadelphia’s hip <a href="https://www.phillymag.com/citified/2016/10/20/northern-liberties-gentrification/">Northern Liberties community</a> is an old working-class neighborhood that has become a model of trendy urban-chic redevelopment. Crowded with renovated row houses, bistros and boutique shops, the area is knit together by a pedestrian mall and a 2-acre community garden, park and playground space called Liberty Lands. </p>
<p>First-time visitors are unlikely to realize they’re standing atop a reclaimed Superfund site once occupied by Burk Brothers Tannery, a large plant that employed hundreds of workers between 1855 and 1962. And even longtime residents may not know that the 1.5 square miles of densely settled land around the park contains the highest density of former manufacturing sites in Philadelphia. </p>
<p>Over the past 60 years, more than 220 factories operated in this same small area. Nearly all did business before the mid-1980s, when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency started <a href="https://www.epa.gov/toxics-release-inventory-tri-program/30th-anniversary-toxics-release-inventory-tri-program">requiring businesses to report releases of toxic materials</a></p>
<p>In our book, <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/sites-unseen">“Sites Unseen,”</a> we set out to discover how many such former sites exist and why, over time, they simultaneously seem to proliferate and disappear from view. The data we collected from state manufacturing directories dating back to the 1950s don’t tell us whether specific addresses we found are presently contaminated. But they do provide richly textured maps of where and for how long hazardous industrial activities operated in four very different cities – New Orleans, Minneapolis, Portland and Philadelphia. Our findings strongly suggest that these and many other American cities now face a legacy hazardous waste problem they don’t even know they have. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251374/original/file-20181218-27764-m62jkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Crescent Brass and Pin Company manufactured nails and plumbing supplies in this building in Detroit from 1905 through 1984.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crescent_Brass_and_Pin_Company_Building#/media/File:Crescent_Brass_and_Pin_Company_Building_-_Detroit_Michigan.jpg">Andrew Jameson/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hazardous waste legacies</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://iaspub.epa.gov/triexplorer/tri_release.chemical">data recently released by the EPA</a>, in 2017 industrial facilities (excluding mining operations) released 1.1 billion pounds of hazardous waste at the point of production or “on site.” That number is an understatement, because government records rely on voluntary reporting and exclude smaller manufacturing facilities that also pollute. And there is virtually no public documentation of similar releases before the 1980s.</p>
<p>To investigate the scope and scale of this problem, we identified relic and active sites from state manufacturing directories, which can be found in public libraries nationwide. These guides are largely untapped sources of information about where manufacturing activities occurred, for how long, and what each facility produced. In each city we analyzed, we were surprised to learn that government databases ostensibly designed to identify hazardous sites actually captured less than 10 percent of historically existing manufacturing sites. </p>
<p>Through follow-up surveys, we learned that 95 percent of relic manufacturing sites are used today for activities other than hazardous industry. We found coffee shops, apartments, restaurants, parks, child care centers and much more at these locations. These patterns corroborate processes which we now suspect drive both the spread of contaminated urban lands and the concealment of their past uses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251581/original/file-20181219-45388-1fd3rdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hazardous industrial sites in Houston’s Inner Loop zone, bounded by Interstate 610. Sites marked ‘o’ were active sites in 2015; those marked ‘x’ are relic and largely uninvestigated sites where industrial activities took place between 1950 and 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Elliott and Scott Frickel</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Erasing sites’ history</h2>
<p>Like other businesses, most hazardous industrial facilities operate for a time, then go out of business or move their operations elsewhere. This constant turnover is an ongoing, fundamental feature of urban economic development. And because urban land is limited and valuable, those lots typically are redeveloped for non-industrial uses when they become available. </p>
<p>Our data show that hazardous industrial sites turn over every eight years, on average. This means that an individual lot can be redeveloped multiple times, sometimes over the span of just a few decades. For example, one Portland, Oregon address that we investigated housed a neon sign and sheet metal fabricator during the 1950s, then the office of a dry bulk trucking company, and is now a doggy day care center. </p>
<p>These interlocking processes of land use and reuse have far-reaching environmental impacts that social scientists are only beginning to recognize. Lot by lot, small but ongoing changes in urban land uses spread toxins across urban areas. At the same time, pressures for redevelopment often cover up the evidence. </p>
<p>In these ways, large, long-lived industrial sites, like the former Burk Brothers Tannery in Philadelphia, represent the tip of the iceberg of urban industrial activities and resulting contamination. Government agencies typically identify and clean up these large, visible sites that are known or widely suspected to be contaminated. And often they offer developers <a href="https://theconversation.com/cleaning-up-toxic-sites-shouldnt-clear-out-the-neighbors-74741">incentives to build on them</a>, including <a href="https://www.hklaw.com/publications/brownfields-redevelopment-initiatives-03-01-2003/">liability waivers</a>.</p>
<p>All the while, thousands of smaller, less prominent but potentially polluted sites go unnoticed, contributing to a much more systemic environmental risk. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HvprdMZsIus?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An ongoing cleanup of Brooklyn’s heavily polluted Gowanus Canal is triggering a development boom in this industrial neighborhood.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Look back to move forward</h2>
<p>Based on the research we did for our book, we believe the problem of relic industrial waste is far greater and more vexing than many scholars, regulators and developers appreciate. And this complexity has important implications for environmental justice and the question of who lives, works and plays in neighborhoods burdened by relic industrial contaminants. Communities can’t set priorities for cleaning up contaminated land until they identify relevant sites.</p>
<p>Environmental justice studies that use more limited government data on hazardous sites provide consistent evidence that polluting industries and environmental hazards are <a href="https://theconversation.com/flints-water-crisis-is-a-blatant-example-of-environmental-injustice-53553">more frequently imposed on poor and minority communities</a>. But our findings suggest that, over time, risks also accumulate over broader areas – including white working-class neighborhoods of yesteryear, lower-income and minority neighborhoods that superseded them, gentrifying areas such as Philadelphia’s Northern Liberties that are now selectively following, and whatever comes after that. </p>
<p>It is a basic social fact of urban life that industrial hazards accumulate and spread relentlessly. The sooner this problem is recognized, the sooner Americans can reclaim their cities and the environmental regulatory systems that are designed to ensure our collective well-being. </p>
<p>One way forward is for regulatory agencies to undertake historical investigations of relic industrial sites, using the same publicly available sources that we have used. Concerned citizens and neighborhood groups can do so as well, and the DIY User’s Guide at the end of our book describes how to do it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James R. Elliott receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Frickel receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. </span></em></p>Many homes, parks and businesses in US cities stand on former manufacturing sites that may have left legacy hazardous wastes behind. A new book calls for more research into our urban industrial past.James R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice UniversityScott Frickel, Professor of Sociology and Environment and Society, Brown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1014962018-08-24T10:42:15Z2018-08-24T10:42:15ZIf you shelter in place during a disaster, be ready for challenges after the storm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233296/original/file-20180823-149472-x33evn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homes surrounded by water from the flooded Brazos River in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Freeport, Texas, Sept. 1, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Slower-Hurricanes/75cd2d8061e240519f445d9ad0e11c64/371/0">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people will likely decide to stay put despite evacuation orders ahead of Hurricane Florence. And if history is any guide, they may not be fully thinking through the problems they’ll face in the aftermath. </p>
<p>I conducted a research survey in Harris County, Texas, which contains much of metro Houston, after the city was flooded by Hurricane Harvey in August 2017, and found a common thread. Few respondents who stayed in place during the storm planned in advance for coping with extended service interruptions, such as road closures, power and water outages and communications interruptions. </p>
<p>I am a civil engineer and study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DFNvQPYAAAAJ&hl=en">interactions between people and infrastructure</a> in <a href="https://www.urbanresilience-lab.com/">disasters</a>. In this survey I wanted to understand how different sub-populations prepare for and adjust to service disruptions during these events. </p>
<p>Hurricanes don’t always prompt mandatory evacuations, and even when they do, <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-people-didnt-evacuate-before-hurricane-matthew-why-not-66724">many people choose not to go</a>. My results show that planning for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/23/us/hurricane-lane-hawaii-wxc/index.html">losing key services, potentially for days or weeks</a>, should be part of preparing to weather storms in place. And cities should keep their most vulnerable residents in mind as they make decisions about storm-proofing critical infrastructure systems, such as power and water.</p>
<h2>No electricity, no phone, no toilet</h2>
<p>Harvey flooded sewers, closed roads, downed power lines and interrupted telecommunications services across southeast Texas. Unlike tornadoes, which can selectively level one neighborhood and leave another unscathed, hurricanes are perversely egalitarian. In Houston, tony and disadvantaged neighborhoods alike bore the brunt of Harvey. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232519/original/file-20180817-165952-1o0ayqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Road closures in Houston during Harvey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ali Mostafavi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most residents in hurricane-prone areas know to store food, stock up on water, check their flashlights and radios and plan for evacuations. But I found that relatively few Houstonians were ready for infrastructure service disruptions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233343/original/file-20180823-149466-zpf10m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-reported hardships due to power outages during Harvey.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My survey was conducted three month after Harvey and included 750 Harris County residents. They rated sewer, water, electricity and communications as the most important household services, and found sewage backing up into homes from overwhelmed public water systems to be the most onerous disruption. Even households with individual on-site septic systems experienced septic tank overflow due to flooding. </p>
<p>Loss of potable water, which affected hygiene, drinking and food preparation, was the next greatest hardship. Electricity and telecommunications outages tied for third place, followed by road closures due to fallen trees, debris and flooding.</p>
<p>My students and I found that 53 percent of the people we surveyed were not well prepared for service disruption. Even the 47 percent who had laid in provisions to weather the storm had not thought specifically about service outages. Most people who self-identified as prepared underestimated the extent and length of service disruptions, and many ran out of stored food and water. A whopping 80 percent of households who were without power after the storm had not even considered the possibility of extended outages. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232520/original/file-20180817-165955-19xseau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-reported hardships due to road closures during Harvey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ali Mostafavi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Most affected: Low-income and minority households, families with young children</h2>
<p>Regardless of how well cities harden their infrastructure, service disruptions are inevitable during and after major hurricanes. Once residents accept that fact, they can adopt practical strategies for weathering storms in place. </p>
<p>Families that live outside of hurricane paths or flood plains can still experience extended disruptions – for example, if high winds damage power distribution networks, or local roads are blocked by downed trees. It is critical for households to understand the likelihood of service disruptions, assess their basic needs objectively and prepare for possible extended outages. </p>
<p>Our research showed that some population groups were especially vulnerable to losing specific services. Households with children 10 and younger self-reported that losing electricity was the most onerous hardship for them, since it made it impossible for them to refrigerate and prepare food. On the other hand, respondents age 65 and older reported that road closures were their greatest burden because they could not drive to work, grocery stores, health care facilities or pharmacies.</p>
<p>We also found that low-income residents and racial and ethnic minorities were less prepared overall and experienced greater hardship during post-Harvey service losses. Disaster researchers widely view these groups as vulnerable populations, since they have fewer resources to prepare or adapt to disruptions.</p>
<p>Interestingly, we found that seniors over 65 were better prepared to endure sewer, water and telecommunications losses after Harvey. For many of them prior experience with storms had instilled the value of preparation, and on the whole they were ready for the impending storm.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2Y4FiwPsQmo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some people choose to shelter in place during disasters because they cannot afford to leave their homes for unknown destinations.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hardening infrastructure with people in mind</h2>
<p>Houston is investing in a swath of flood control and flood risk reduction projects. Notably, on Aug. 25 the city adopted a <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Harris-County-voters-pass-2-5-billion-flood-bond-13182842.php">$2.5 billion bond measure to overhaul the region’s flood-protection system.</a>. </p>
<p>Protecting homes is important, but cities should also invest in hardening infrastructure systems, such as power and water lines, to support residents who shelter in place during storms. Local communities can handle some of these upgrades. For instance, some Houston neighborhoods lost internet connectivity for as long as six weeks due to submerged utility boxes housing network electronics. This problem could be solved by raising the boxes above potential flood levels. </p>
<p>Identifying and hardening infrastructure components, such as power sub-stations and wastewater treatment plants, that are highly vulnerable to future storms is a critical task for utilities and city planners. Also, recognizing and protecting vulnerable sub-populations who are most affected by service outages should be a priority.</p>
<p>As households prepare for an storm, consideration of possible power outages, sewer backup, and road closures should factor into their decisions about evacuating or sheltering in place. If they stay, they should not underestimate the likelihood of service disruptions. No one likes to lose power or internet, but imagining the possibility of extended service outages and the resulting hardship can help households prepare and cope with the disruptions. </p>
<p><em>Ph.D. student Amir Esmalian and technical writer Jan Gerston contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Mostafavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many people board up their houses and stay in place during disasters – but often they aren’t prepared to go without water, power or transportation for days or weeks afterward.Ali Mostafavi, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991782018-08-23T10:45:21Z2018-08-23T10:45:21ZA year after Hurricane Harvey, some Texans are using outdated flood risk maps to rebuild<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232974/original/file-20180822-149496-16vdha9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Businesses in Humble, Texas, part of metropolitan Houston, surrounded by floodwater from Hurricane Harvey, August 29, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey-Houston-Economic-Impact/8663935e0cd64c2dab06d89f86199693/581/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One year ago, on August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck Texas – the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey">Wilma in 2005</a>. Harvey dumped record-breaking <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">rain</a> and flooded hundreds of thousands of homes in and around Houston. It caused some <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf">US$125 billion in damages</a>, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. </p>
<p>But human choices played a role. Before Harvey, Houston was widely known as a model of <a href="https://qz.com/1064364/hurricane-harvey-houstons-flooding-made-worse-by-unchecked-urban-development-and-wetland-destruction/">unchecked urban development</a>. With <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/2015/09/08/forget-what-youve-heard-houston-really-does-have-zoning-sort-of">no formal zoning or comprehensive plan</a>, developers were allowed to turn virtually any land, including wetlands, into houses and shopping malls. The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), unintentionally encouraged intense development by offering <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">coverage in flood-prone areas at below-cost rates</a>.</p>
<p>Harvey’s impacts in Houston provide an ideal case study for unsustainable human-environment interaction. After last year’s flooding, it would be logical to expect affected communities to rethink long-term hazard management and risk reduction. </p>
<p>In fact, I see the opposite happening. In just one example, officials in the city of Friendswood (part of greater Houston) are allowing some residents to rebuild their homes based on <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/After-Harvey-s-floods-Houston-area-city-will-12540769.php">outdated flood risk maps</a> that greatly underestimate the risk of future floods. This avoids requirements such as elevating houses and buying flood insurance. I believe choosing to rely on faulty information, driven by short-term financial concerns, will increase long-term risks for many Houstonians. </p>
<h2>The message of FEMA flood maps</h2>
<p>Much discussion about the troubled National Flood Insurance Program has centered on its <a href="https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/national_flood_insurance/why_did_study">artificially low premiums</a>. FEMA’s flood risk maps receive less attention, but are a powerful risk communication tool. </p>
<p>FEMA produces these maps for more than 20,000 communities that participate in the insurance program. They <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1516468489259-8eb4bfef27ab35159b2f140a2926e809/What_Goes_Into_a_Flood_Map.pdf">determine insurance rates, inform local regulations and communicate risks to communities</a> </p>
<p>On the maps, Special Flood Hazard Areas identify zones with a one percent chance of flooding in any given year. Since this translates to 100 percent odds of flooding at least once in a century, these areas often are referred to as 100-year flood zones (creating the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/">misleading impression</a> that they will only flood once a century). Homeowners there must buy flood insurance in order to qualify for federally regulated or guaranteed loans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232984/original/file-20180822-149475-t4dx2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood risk map for Multnomah County, Oregon, based on FEMA hazard assessment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.oregonriskmap.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=featured&Itemid=139">Oregon DCLD</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using surveys and geographic data, I have shown that flood maps significantly affect <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2016.11.021">voluntary decisions to purchase flood insurance</a>. Working with other social scientists and engineers, I found that people who live in communities with a large percentage of 100-year flood zones are more likely to buy flood insurance, even when they are not required to do so. </p>
<p>How do these maps convey risk? Using websites such as <a href="https://www.floodsmart.gov/">Floodsmart.gov</a>, users can view the flood maps and see threats to their properties and surrounding areas. FEMA also works with local governments to educate residents about flood risks. A civil engineer who worked for the city of Huntsville, Alabama told me that he used the maps to point out relative risks to homeowners:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I’ll say, ‘Do you have flood insurance? You don’t have to – your house isn’t in [a 100-year flood zone] – but you do have one-percent annual chance floodplain on the back of your property. It’s close to where you are, so you have more risk of flooding than somebody further away.’” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>When homeowners elevate or flood-proof their homes or purchase flood insurance, they may also <a href="http://resolver.ebscohost.com/openurl?sid=google&auinit=P&aulast=Bubeck&atitle=Detailed+insights+into+the+influence+of+flood-coping+appraisals+on+mitigation+behaviour&id=doi%3a10.1016%2fj.gloenvcha.2013.05.009&title=Global+Environmental+Change%3a+Human+and+Policy+Dimensions&volume=23&issue=5&date=2013&spage=1327&site=ftf-live">influence neighbors to take similar steps</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/laeLaNcYVEQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some Houstonians who are not required to elevate their homes are choosing to do so.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Undercutting FEMA’s message</h2>
<p>FEMA’s maps can be a double-edged sword. If they are inaccurate, they may mislead users. </p>
<p>And the maps have widely-recognized flaws. They do a poor job of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-fema-faulty-flood-maps/">accounting for changing conditions</a>. For instance, FEMA often assigns low flood risk to locations that are near coasts but slightly elevated, due to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-1937-x">insufficient wave modeling to account for storm surge risk</a>. This can give residents in those zones a false sense of security. And the maps do not analyze how risks vary within flood zones, or between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12068">coastal and inland locations.</a>. </p>
<p>FEMA is required to assess whether the maps need updating maps every five years. But a recent Congressional Budget Office report found that two-thirds of counties with high flood-related claims <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53028-supplementalmaterial.pdf">had maps that were more than five years old</a>. The update process is time-consuming, with a <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R45099.pdf">lengthy statutory consultation and appeals process</a>. </p>
<p>Even if communities have more recent data, FEMA <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/After-Harvey-s-floods-Houston-area-city-will-12540769.php">will not publish a partial update</a>. This explains why Friendswood – which has an updated flood map for some land within its limits, created after Tropical Storm Allison in 2007 – can revert to a 20-year-old FEMA map to guide post-Harvey rebuilding.</p>
<h2>Downplaying risks</h2>
<p>Friendswood is just one example of Houston officials downplaying flood risks. FEMA maps are developed and updated in partnership with communities; in recent years the agency has allowed Houston developers to revise local flood maps through steps such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/02/us/houston-flood-zone-hurricane-harvey.html">dumping tons of fill to raise neighborhoods above the flood plain</a> – sometimes just by inches. </p>
<p>Today, a developer in Friendswood is planning to build a shopping center in the Clear Creek floodway – the zone around the creek where most of the water flows – <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/After-Hurricane-Harvey-Friendswood-residents-12959848.php">on top of trucked-in dirt</a>. In the past decade, some 1,400 structures have been <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/What-s-in-a-floodway-In-Houston-20-000-12409821.php?utm_campaign=twitter-premium&utm_source=CMS%2520Sharing%2520Button&utm_medium=social">permitted in and around Houston in floodways</a>.</p>
<p>A pro-building, pro-expansion mentality still permeates the city. Despite <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/city-of-houston/2018/04/30/282321/turner-and-council-members-emphasize-subdivision-facing-opposition-meets-all-requirements-some-disagree/">opposition from some residents and local media</a>, Houston’s City Council unanimously approved a plan in April 2018 to <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php">build 900 homes in a west Houston flood plain</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232988/original/file-20180822-149496-q88lg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A floodway is land along a creek, stream or river that conveys most of the water, so flow is deepest, fastest and most dangerous.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bouldercounty.org/transportation/floodplain-mapping/frequently-asked-questions/">Boulder County, Colorado</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Houston is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-houston-housing-feature/houston-still-rebuilding-from-2017-floods-as-new-hurricane-season-arrives-idUSKCN1IX48C">taking some steps to reduce flood risks</a>, such as buying out houses that have routinely flooded and requiring other owners to elevate their homes. Nonetheless, these pro-development examples are troubling. </p>
<p>According to one recent study, the extreme amounts of rain that fell on Houston during Harvey <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000825">resulted from unprecedented ocean heat content</a>. In other words, it was exacerbated by human-induced climate change. In a climate where temperatures are projected to increase in the future, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716222114">hurricane-induced coastal flooding will be more frequent and intense</a>. </p>
<p>My recent research shows that even with their flaws, FEMA flood maps influence decisions to purchase flood insurance and overall support for flood mitigation. Policy makers need to seriously consider how to accurately communicate increasing flood risks to the public. Reverting to old flood maps and granting variances to promote development is a recipe for more disasters down the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wanyun Shao receives funding from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Gulf Research Program.</span></em></p>Hurricane Harvey swamped much of Houston in 2017, causing more damage than all other US hurricanes except Katrina. But now the city is authorizing construction in zones at high risk for flooding.Wanyun Shao, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of AlabamaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1002172018-08-15T10:23:02Z2018-08-15T10:23:02ZCameras can catch cars that run red lights, but that doesn’t make streets safer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230920/original/file-20180807-160647-3xl3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many major U.S. cities have hidden cameras to catch drivers who run red lights.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tram-traffic-light-showing-red-1019625316?src=WtTd1QIh_LMaFLLiUrBfNg-1-3">Gints Ivuskans/shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/camaras-que-identifican-a-infractores-no-suponen-una-mejora-para-la-seguridad-vial-101645">Leer en español</a></em>.</p>
<p>The automobile is a killer. In the U.S., <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2015/07/04/road-kill">36,675 people died</a> in traffic accidents in 2014. The year before, 2.3 million people were injured in traffic accidents. </p>
<p>During the past decade, over <a href="http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/laws/automated_enforcement?topicName=red-light-running">438 U.S. municipalities</a>, including 36 of the 50 most populous cities, have employed electronic monitoring programs in order to reduce the number of accidents. Red light camera programs specifically target drivers that run red lights.</p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3078079">In a study</a> I co-authored with economist Paul J. Fisher, we examined all police-recorded traffic accidents for three large Texas cities over a 12-year period – hundreds of thousands of accidents. We found no evidence that red light cameras improve public safety. They don’t reduce the total number of vehicle accidents, the total number of individuals injured in accidents or the total number of incapacitating injuries that involve ambulance transport to a hospital.</p>
<h2>Red light cameras</h2>
<p>In a red light camera program, a camera is installed in a location where it can take photos or video of vehicles as they pass through the intersection. City employees or private contractors then review the photos. If a vehicle is in the intersection when the light is red, then a ticket is sent to the person who registered the vehicle. </p>
<p>These programs aim to reduce cross-street collisions. The idea is that drivers, fearing a higher chance that they will be fined, will be more likely to stop, lowering the number of angle, or “T-bone,” accidents.</p>
<p>Evidence clearly shows that camera programs are effective at decreasing the number of vehicles running red lights. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457506000273">In one study in Virginia</a>, red light cameras reduced the number of total drivers running red lights by 67 percent. </p>
<p>However, cameras can have contradictory effects on traffic safety. Some drivers who would have otherwise continued to proceed through the intersection when the light is yellow or red will now attempt to stop. That means that the number of accidents caused by vehicles not stopping at a red light will likely decrease.</p>
<p>But the number of accidents from stopping at a red light – such as rear-end accidents – is likely to increase. That’s not an inconsequential side effect. Some drivers will attempt to stop, accepting a higher risk of a non-angle accident like getting rear-ended, in order to avoid the expected fine.</p>
<p>The overall effect of a camera program on vehicle accidents and injuries depends on the net impact of these two effects. Overall driver safety could increase or decrease.</p>
<h2>Our study</h2>
<p>In our study, we focused on Houston, a major U.S. city that operated a large camera program at 66 intersections between 2006 and 2010. </p>
<p>One reason we chose Houston is to take advantage of the natural experiment that occurred when city residents <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Opposition-putting-a-stop-to-red-light-cameras-4461447.php">passed a referendum in November 2010</a> to ban the cameras. </p>
<p>We accessed detailed accident information on every traffic accident in Texas from 2003 to 2014 through a public records information request. The data included the accident’s precise geocoded location; the type of accident; whether the driver ran a red light; and details on any injuries.</p>
<p>When the Houston cameras were removed, angle accidents increased by 26 percent. However, all other types of accidents decreased by 18 percent. Approximately one-third of all Houston intersection accidents are angle accidents. This suggests that the program’s drawbacks canceled out its benefits. </p>
<p>Our study showed no evidence that cameras reduce the total number of accidents. We estimate that total accidents are reduced by a statistically insignificant 3 percent after the cameras are turned off. </p>
<p>Likewise, there’s no evidence that the camera program reduced the number of traffic-related injuries or the likelihood of incurring an incapacitating injury.</p>
<p>The elevated number of traffic accidents at urban intersections is a serious public health issue. But our study shows that Houston’s camera program was ineffective in improving traffic safety. Electronic monitoring is not the solution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Gallagher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hundreds of US cities have red light cameras to try to catch traffic violations and prevent accidents. But research shows that the cameras may encourage other types of accidents.Justin Gallagher, Assistant Professor of Economics, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/906092018-03-30T10:52:56Z2018-03-30T10:52:56ZHow Texas is ‘building back better’ from Hurricane Harvey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205609/original/file-20180208-180826-1i4xwoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey flooded one-third of Houston and displaced more then 30,000 people in the region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Janelle Rios</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most Americans, the one-two punch of last fall’s hurricanes is ancient history. But hard-hit communities in Texas, Florida and the Caribbean are still rebuilding.</p>
<p>I recently traveled with public health students from the University of Washington to southeast Texas, where the impacts of Hurricane Harvey last August are still felt today. With support from the <a href="https://hazards.colorado.edu/research/quick-response">Natural Hazards Center’s Quick Response Grant Program</a>, we wanted to understand how disaster recovery strategies can create long-term opportunities to promote healthy communities. </p>
<p>Through interviews with local health officials, we learned how Hurricane Harvey is still affecting many residents. As we often see during natural disasters, Harvey amplified pre-existing health and social stresses and inequities. </p>
<p>For example, greater Houston had only a paltry pre-storm <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/03/27/275635/houston-has-large-backlog-in-affordable-housing/">supply of affordable housing</a>. Now buyers and renters are competing to secure undamaged units. We heard about families who were living in homes with toxic mold because they couldn’t afford to leave, and concerns that rising prices would drive people out on the street or force them to move to other cities and states. However, we also saw signs that communities were using Hurricane Harvey to springboard efforts to address persistent housing problems. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212680/original/file-20180329-189807-4kfmk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in southeast Texas, August 31, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.147atkw.ang.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1304518/guarding-texas-state-federal-agencies-respond-to-harvey/">Staff Sgt. Daniel J. Martinez, Air National Guard</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning disasters into opportunities</h2>
<p>The default response after a major disaster is often to rebuild as quickly as possible. This typically means replicating what existed before the storm. But why not build back in a way that corrects long-standing problems? </p>
<p>Major disasters like Hurricane Harvey often bring <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/04/four-months-after-hurricane-harvey-four-major-questions-about-recovery/">influxes of resources and attention</a> to communities that are struggling with health and social challenges. In a 2015 <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18996/healthy-resilient-and-sustainable-communities-after-disasters-strategies-opportunities-and">report</a>, the Institute of Medicine found that many communities fail to fully leverage recovery resources to address pre-existing issues, such as access to health care. </p>
<p>The report urged communities to consider short- and long-term health impacts of their recovery decisions, known as a “<a href="https://www.apha.org/topics-and-issues/health-in-all-policies">health in all policies</a>” approach to recovery. This approach recognizes that health is connected to many other issues, including transportation, social networks and housing. By thinking about the health impacts of recovery strategies, municipal leaders can rebuild in a way that promotes stronger and more resilient communities. </p>
<p>For example, co-locating mental health professionals at sites where people are signing up for FEMA aid can help more residents get counseling and support. In the long term, decisions about land use in badly damaged neighborhoods can create spaces where people can exercise and socialize, which helps them to lead healthier and happier lives.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212682/original/file-20180329-189827-q0p4nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planning for disasters should include identifying those most likely to need help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/XT9jZ3">Jill Carlson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Leveraging local expertise to build back better</h2>
<p>The idea of incorporating health in all policies may sound sensible, but putting it into action after a hurricane, wildfire or tornado strike is easier said than done. As a former emergency manager in Baltimore, I know that working conditions after disasters are fast-paced and often chaotic. Communities are under political and social pressure to recover quickly, and health may not be at the top of their agendas. </p>
<p>Advance planning for recovery is important. And involving people who understand challenges to community health and well-being is essential. Local health departments, as well as community- and faith-based organizations, are often connected to at-risk populations. Involving these organizations in recovery planning and implementation can inform an approach that promotes community health and well-being. For example, they can identify opportunities to use recovery resources to meet pre-existing housing needs, or direct case management services to families that are already struggling. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"969331833732202496"}"></div></p>
<h2>Building healthier post-Harvey</h2>
<p>Harvey caused <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf">US$125 billion in damages</a>, making it the second-worst storm to strike the U.S. mainland after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm flooded one-third of Houston, displacing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/texas-officials-hurricane-harvey-death-toll-at-82-mass-casualties-have-absolutely-not-happened/2017/09/14/bff3ffea-9975-11e7-87fc-c3f7ee4035c9_story.html?utm_term=.01924918fda7">more than 30,000 people</a> from their homes.</p>
<p>During our trip to Texas we saw that pre-disaster recovery planning was paying off. As an example, <a href="http://www.fortbendrecovers.org/about/">Fort Bend Recovers</a> was established in Fort Bend County, which covers 885 square miles in the Houston metro area, after <a href="https://www.chron.com/houston/article/Remembering-Houston-s-Memorial-Day-floods-7944644.php">major flooding</a> on Memorial Day in 2016. </p>
<p>In Harvey’s wake, plans developed by Fort Bend Recovers created a process for organizations, including local health and social services agencies, to rapidly reconvene to respond to community needs. Together they offered case management services, staffed mental health support lines, and convened emotional support groups. Such services can help individuals affected by the floods find housing and supplies, but also connect them with solutions for longer-term problems, such as finding affordable medical care. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SknXSNjeKrU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Lasting impacts in New York City a year after 2012’s Superstorm Sandy.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Hurricane season 2018 is coming</h2>
<p>In order to truly “build back better,” states and communities need to develop a plan for recovery in advance of the next disaster. Galveston County, on Texas’ Gulf Coast, is using its Hurricane Harvey recovery experience to formalize a <a href="https://www.galvestoncountyrecovers.org/">Long Term Recovery Group</a> that brings together the local health department and other community- and faith-based organizations to address community health needs. But we also heard about other communities that still don’t have a plan or mechanism for organizing recovery. </p>
<p>With support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s <a href="http://rwjf-newconnections.org/about-us/">New Connections Program</a>, my research team is now reviewing state disaster recovery plans nationwide. We plan to identify whether and how states use the disaster recovery period to build back better. We hope to highlight recovery strategies that promote equitable access to affordable and safe housing, health care, and places and spaces that encourage healthy activity and foster social connections.</p>
<p>As climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-climate-change-really-improved-u-s-weather-58269">amplifies storms, floods and other extreme weather events</a>, U.S. communities can expect more frequent and severe natural disasters in the years to come. By recognizing and planning for opportunities to build back better, they can make themselves more resilient against the next disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Errett receives funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's New Connections Program.</span></em></p>After disasters, communities often push to rebuild as quickly as possible. A public health expert says they should aim higher and fix problems that exist pre-storm.Nicole Errett, Lecturer in Environmental and Occupational Health, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/860362017-11-15T00:14:35Z2017-11-15T00:14:35ZWhy Puerto Rico is getting the brunt of ‘donor fatigue’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194425/original/file-20171113-27622-1d7mvz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Being one of a series of disasters made relief in Puerto Rico harder to come by after Hurricane Maria. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria-Shelter-Life/94af5b8794744d9cb0b49439c4068957/107/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recovering from disasters is never easy. When disasters pile up, it gets harder.</p>
<p>On top of the inevitable competition for everything from the government’s funding for recovery efforts to construction materials, donations for relief operations dry up as givers develop what’s known as “<a href="http://blog.winspireme.com/16-fundraising-best-practices-for-preventing-donor-fatigue">donor fatigue</a>.” </p>
<p>While studying disaster relief and community resilience, I’ve learned that there are many factors shaping if and how much people give. I’ve also found that those decisions can have important consequences for communities affected by disasters. And when multiple devastating events occur around the same time, the strain on donors and responders takes a big toll.</p>
<h2>Donor fatigue</h2>
<p>When donors have already supported other relief efforts, they may feel that they either can’t or don’t need to give again. </p>
<p>Today, that means many people who supported recovery efforts after Hurricane Harvey or perhaps Hurricane Irma are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/10/04/puerto-rico-donations-lag-behind-fundraising-harvey-irma-victims-vegas-shooting/731955001/">not pitching in</a> to help Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>While the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/about-us/media/press-releases">American Red Cross</a>, a leading relief nonprofit, said it had raised <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/American-Red-Cross-Issues-One-Month-Progress-Report-on-Relief-Response-for-Historic-Hurricane-Harvey">US$350 million for Hurricane Harvey</a> recovery efforts within a month, donations a month after <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/Hurricane-Irma-One-Month-Progress-Report-Details-American-Red-Cross-Relief-Efforts">Irma totaled only $56.4 million</a>. Red Cross donations amounted to just <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/One-Month-Progress-Report-Highlights-American-Red-Cross-Response-to-Hurricane-Maria">$31.6 million a month after Maria</a>.</p>
<p>And that’s despite estimates that total losses for each of the three big hurricanes were staggering and ranked <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/hurricane-damage-economic-costs-4150369">among the highest ever registered</a>.</p>
<p>Texas alone suffered an estimated <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Abbott-weathering-political-storms-in-addition-to-12299718.php">$150 billion in damage</a> from Harvey. Irma may have wrought as much as <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-economic-cost-of-harvey-irma-to-be-290-billion/70002686">$100 billion</a> in damage, and for Puerto Rico, Maria’s price tag may ultimately total some <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/puerto-rico-faces-cash-shortfall-hurricane-maria-50839504">$95 billion</a>. </p>
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<p>The ways people tend to give after disasters – such as a preference for <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">in-kind donations</a> like clothing and food and tying strings to cash – can also magnify the damage done by donor fatigue. </p>
<p>Giving things as opposed to cash may make donors feel like they’re making a concrete difference or make them more confident that their contribution will be put to a specific good use. But sending cases of bottled water or bales of diapers on long trips rarely helps as much as just giving money. It’s expensive and inefficient, and there is bound to be a mismatch between these items and what people on the ground actually need.</p>
<p>In-kind donations can also get stranded. Unused goods, like cases of peanut butter or blankets, either get put to a nonemergency use or sent to another location. When the latter happens, that means the water bottles, blankets or other things take extra trips – becoming more expensive by the time they make it to, say, a Puerto Rican mountaintop village.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These cases of bottled water were donated for the Empire State Relief and Recovery Effort for Puerto Rico in September.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Maria-New-York-Connection/0d0cca3f42f34669a37cae9bae58aed7/17/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Likewise, it can cause more harm than good when donors demand that the money they give be used in a specific way.</p>
<p>For example, some people stipulate that their monetary donations slated for, say, Hurricane Harvey survivors in Houston, Texas, must be used only for that purpose. That common and longstanding practice often prevents disaster relief groups from <a href="https://learn.guidestar.org/news/news-releases/2010/guidestar-urges-donors-not-to-restrict-nonprofits-when-giving-to-disaster-re">using that money elsewhere</a>.</p>
<p>This restriction distorts the ability of nonprofits to do their best to help the victims of more recent disasters, I’ve heard from people who worked for disaster relief organizations while doing my research.</p>
<p>Cash donations without constraints give relief groups the most flexibility, which helps temper the impact of donor fatigue in subsequent emergencies. </p>
<p>I find the lagging donations for Irma and Maria troubling because with few exceptions, most donations to support disaster relief are made within a few weeks of hurricanes, earthquakes or other devastating events. </p>
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<h2>Government funding fatigue</h2>
<p>Another problem that arises when disasters bunch up is that the government itself can’t keep up with demand for the funds it reserves for relief work.</p>
<p>The budget for what’s known as the the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Disaster Relief Fund</a> is largely based on the average of the previous decade of disaster spending. While structured to accommodate the unpredictability of the number and cost of events, years with a particularly catastrophic event – or multiple major disasters – can drain this budget. In those cases, the government can’t fully fund disaster response work unless <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Congress passes legislation allocating more money</a> and the president signs off.</p>
<p>Because dealing with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/09/08/549279078/with-harvey-and-now-irma-federal-funds-and-fema-are-put-to-the-test">Hurricane Harvey</a> had largely depleted these disaster funds before Hurricanes Irma and Maria even made landfall, Trump approved an additional <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357404-trump-signs-365b-disaster-relief-package">$36.5 billion</a> in a relief package.</p>
<p>But costs from these disasters are so high that this new allocation may not suffice. In addition, the funding includes $16 billion for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-insurance-is-broken-here-are-some-ways-to-fix-it-83769">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is not enough to to make up for its <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001/">$25 billion debt</a> that began piling up after Hurricane Katrina.</p>
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<h2>Even more disasters</h2>
<p>Compounding the problem is that Houston, Tampa, San Juan and <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-wildfires-leave-lasting-economic-scars-on-californias-vital-wine-country-86174">California’s wine country</a> aren’t the only communities struggling to get back on their feet.</p>
<p>In the middle of this busy hurricane and wildfire season, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-road-to-recovery-after-quakes-is-far-longer-than-it-looks-84479">Mexico was rocked by two earthquakes</a> – one of which also caused major damage in Guatemala. In South Asia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-himalayan-floods-are-made-worse-by-an-international-blame-game-83103">Bangladesh, India and Nepal were swamped</a> by extreme flooding.</p>
<p>At the same time, crises created through politics and war need donor aid too. Violence across the Middle East is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-have-4-8-million-syrian-refugees-gone-57968">uprooting millions of people</a> in that region, many of whom have nowhere to go as anti-refugee fervor heats up around the world. And hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-anyone-protect-the-rohingya-85809">Rohingya refugees</a> have fled persecution in Myanmar.</p>
<p>Just like when multiple disasters occur within a country, simultaneous crises across the globe create competition for relief resources on an international scale.</p>
<p>The good news is that there are some creative ways to combat donor fatigue and boost giving – even after relief donations usually dry up. For instance, musical theater superstar <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lin-manuel-miranda-brings-help-hope-to-puerto-rico/">Lin-Manuel Miranda</a> will reprise his signature role as Alexander Hamilton in 2019 in San Juan to raise money for Puerto Rican disaster relief while lifting local spirits.</p>
<p>It’s also not too late for the federal government to dedicate additional funding to help fill the gaps that remain. And there’s still time for everyone to make a difference by making monetary donations that give relief organizations the freedom to use those funds where they are needed the most.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"928349595385638912"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Penta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charitable giving and government aid can shortchange disasters that follow other disasters.Samantha Penta, Assistant Professor, College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/837692017-09-20T03:14:22Z2017-09-20T03:14:22ZFlood insurance is broken. Here are some ways to fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186473/original/file-20170918-13207-7m6m7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Immokalee, Florida sustained heavy damage during Hurricane Irma.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Irma-The-Poor/8481ccc8194f4f3ba55320d7694d7586/2/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hundreds of thousands of Americans whose homes were damaged or destroyed by flooding from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma don’t know how they will pay for repairs, rebuilding or replacement. Likewise, the nation as a whole needs a plan for fixing the deeply flawed federal system for managing and financing flood risks.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">National Flood Insurance Program</a> insures almost five million homes and businesses against flood risks and handles related services such as <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program-flood-hazard-mapping">flood risk mapping</a> and <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-managers">floodplain management</a>. It nearly ran out of funding before Congress voted to temporarily <a href="https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41261-national-flood-insurance-program-granted-3-month-extension">extend its authorization</a> in early September. This reprieve means it can keep renewing and issuing new policies through December 8 – instead of being frozen at an inconvenient juncture.</p>
<p>As an expert on the structure and performance of insurance markets, I was relieved to see the program at least get patched. But I’m also concerned because lawmakers are making too little progress toward a long-overdue overhaul of the program that would make it solvent and more effective.</p>
<h2>What’s wrong?</h2>
<p>As House Financial Services Committee Chairman <a href="https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=402322">Jeb Hensarling</a> put it recently, Congress must “finally get serious about fixing the NFIP because it is not only broke, it is broken.”</p>
<p>After years of struggles, its problems worsened considerably after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Along with other flooding programs and policies, it’s failing in four main ways.</p>
<p>First, too few of the property owners who need flood insurance are buying it, and in some cases their coverage can’t cover their losses. That leaves too many Americans saddled with uninsured losses – which in turn puts more pressure on the government to step up its assistance. </p>
<p>Second, the NFIP doesn’t charge premiums high enough to cover its costs. </p>
<p>Third, since Congress hasn’t officially filled the gap through appropriations, the program is running a big deficit.</p>
<p>Finally, the NFIP is forced to cover previously flooded homes and properties in very risky places. This mandate takes advantage of taxpayers since no private insurer would voluntarily cover those properties. Without leeway, the program – and by extension all taxpayers – is subsidizing the <a href="http://www.pewtrusts.org/%7E/media/assets/2016/10/repeatedly_flooded_properties_cost_billions.pdf?la=en">owners of homes and businesses that have been repeatedly flooded</a>. Representing about 1 percent of all insured properties, they account for roughly 30 percent of NFIP claims.</p>
<p>Separately, measures aimed at reducing flood risk and losses aren’t working. <a href="https://theconversation.com/building-climate-resilience-in-cities-lessons-from-new-york-52363">Local authorities</a> allow too much building – and rebuilding – after disaster strikes in high-risk areas, such as barrier islands along the Southeast and Gulf coasts. And too many people are moving into those areas or staying put when they shouldn’t.</p>
<h2>Expanding coverage</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">Insurance Information Institute</a> estimates that only about 12 percent of homeowners currently have flood insurance policies. Without vouchers – or a similar approach – even fewer Americans who need flood insurance will buy it if premiums rise.</p>
<p>The NFIP and other insurers will cover only an estimated 30 percent of the flood losses from Harvey’s record rainfalls and storm surges, real estate data company <a href="http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/tom-larsen/2017/09/hurricane-harvey-identifying-the-insurance-gap.aspx#.Wb-96DaWycw">CoreLogic</a> estimates.</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2017/09/flood_insurance_losses_from_hu.html">Roy Wright</a>, who runs the NFIP, blames premium increases stemming from the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act</a>, which Congress passed in 2012, for a recent decline in the number of flood insurance policies purchased. He says the <a href="http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/business/article171695422.html">number of policies in the U.S. should double</a> to 10 million.</p>
<p>Even more properties would have lacked flood insurance had Congress not rolled back Biggert-Waters two years later. The law was supposed to make the NFIP more <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">self-sufficient</a> by <a href="http://eden.lsu.edu/Topics/Hazards/Floods/NFIP/Pages/FloodPremiumsRisingDramatically.aspx">raising premiums</a> and instituting other changes. Homeowners in high-risk areas <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">pressured lawmakers to scrap</a> it, though some rates were still allowed to rise. </p>
<p>Currently, people with mortgages are required to carry flood insurance only when their properties are located in high-risk areas. Like the <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">General Accountability Office</a>, I support extending this requirement to everyone with a mortgage.</p>
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<h2>Problematic premiums</h2>
<p>So why doesn’t the NFIP charge enough to cover its costs? One reason is subsidies.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">GAO</a> estimates that the government subsidizes about one in five homeowner flood insurance policies. </p>
<p>These subsidies tend to help the people who need it least – like those with expensive mansions in coastal areas – at taxpayer expense. (Some of the subsidies are being <a href="http://www.iii.org/issue-update/flood-insurance">phased out</a>.)</p>
<p>Many experts and policymakers want the government to grant a new kind of subsidy by giving the homeowners who can’t afford flood insurance <a href="https://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/projectview.aspx?key=49584">means-tested vouchers</a> to help pay for it.</p>
<p>In addition, experts at the <a href="http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/J2014-GPP_Could-Flood-Insurance-Be-Privatised-US.pdf">Wharton School</a> and elsewhere also argue that the NFIP miscalculates premiums, charging homeowners too little or too much. Adopting the latest technology and methods would make it more accurate. </p>
<p>I believe that the NFIP should also charge higher premiums for policies that cover properties that are especially susceptible to catastrophic losses from severe floods.</p>
<h2>Forgiving the program’s debt</h2>
<p>Unless premiums start covering the program’s costs or Congress appropriates more money for it, the NFIP will keep running deficits. It already <a href="http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2017/09/05/463227.htm">owed the Treasury nearly US$25 billion</a> before the latest hurricanes made landfall. Harvey and Irma could add $10 billion or more to this tab based on my broad-brush analysis of <a href="http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2017/09/flood_insurance_losses_from_hu.html">National Flood Insurance Program projections</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">GAO</a> has argued that the NFIP should not have to repay its debt. I agree.</p>
<p>Private sector insurance pricing is prospective, not retrospective. Since private insurers cannot recoup losses from prior years by charging current and future policyholders more than what they owe, public sector insurers like the NFIP cannot either.</p>
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<h2>How Congress wants to fix it</h2>
<p>Lawmakers have floated several flood insurance bills, all offering to fix different problems. So far, none of them would forgive the NFIP’s debt, as a House bill <a href="https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=399985">introduced last year</a> would have done.</p>
<p>The House bill that <a href="https://financialservices.house.gov/archives/di4llw5igm2afr0s0mfy-fbgm-ims.htm">Texas Rep. Hensarling supports</a> would make it easier for some homeowners to get and pay for flood insurance. It would also help put the NFIP on <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53088">firmer fiscal footing</a> by ruling out coverage for homes and businesses that have had claims amounting to more than twice their replacement cost and other reforms. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Cassidy-Gillibrand%20Section%20Summary%204_25_17_%20FINAL.pdf">Senate</a>, there are two <a href="https://www.menendez.senate.gov/news-and-events/press/menendez-leads-bipartisan-flood-insurance-reform-bill-to-fix-problems-exposed-by-sandy">bipartisan</a> bills that would instead tighten the caps on annual rate increases, forcing taxpayers to pay more for flood losses at a time when scientists expect climate change to make bouts of <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report">extreme weather</a> more common.</p>
<p>While the House bill would not solve all of the program’s problems, the Senate bills fall even shorter. However, the Senate bills would substantially increase funding for flood-prevention efforts such as mapping that gauges the risk of flooding in coastal and inland areas.</p>
<p>They also call for boosting spending on floodplain management and risk mitigation by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which runs the NFIP. </p>
<p>In practice that means the government could do more to encourage flood-prone areas to strengthen their zoning and building ordinances. As a result, more homeowners in risky areas might <a href="https://www.fema.gov/pdf/rebuild/mat/sec5.pdf">elevate their dwellings</a> to make them less prone to flooding or communities could use zoning to discourage construction vulnerable to storm damage.</p>
<p>Many lawmakers also want to expand the role of <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/115/hr1422/text">private insurers</a>, which <a href="http://www.privatemarketflood.com/faq/">underwrite</a> only a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-irma-insurance/hurricane-irma-could-test-floridas-private-flood-insurance-market-idUSKCN1BG39F">small fraction</a> of the flood policies now in place, by making it easier for them to sell flood policies. Some provisions in pending legislation that would do this would be helpful, but others could create problems such as allowing private companies to sell policies with substantial coverage gaps.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186476/original/file-20170918-8258-g4gozy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alfonso Jose and his wife Cristina Ventura pull son Alfonso Jr. in a cooler while wading through their flooded street after Hurricane Irma soaked Bonita Springs, Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Hurricane-Irma/fc8d1057b4c646c297747eaf4fb4a08c/144/0">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about the Trump administration?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, the White House isn’t helping. Trump’s proposed budget would <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget/trumps-cut-to-flood-map-program-could-trigger-insurance-rate-hikes-group-idUSKBN16R2FT">cut NFIP spending on flood mapping</a> by $190 million. In August, shortly before Harvey made landfall, he <a href="http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20170816/NEWS06/912315211/Trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-federal-flood-risk-management-standard">rescinded an Obama-era executive order</a> to establish a federal flood risk management standard for public infrastructure.</p>
<p>Clearly, there is no magical way to fix flood insurance while cutting what homeowners and the government spend on it.</p>
<p>But there are ways to make the program more sustainable and capable of doing more for the people who need help more than the affluent beneficiaries whom it now subsidizes. The Trump administration and Congress just have to be willing to do what it takes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The bills now pending in Congress won’t do what it will take.Robert W. Klein, Director, Center for RMI Research, Associate Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/832052017-09-13T02:37:40Z2017-09-13T02:37:40Z5 things that have changed about FEMA since Katrina – and 5 that haven’t<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185550/original/file-20170911-30152-nv5g94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">FEMA's handling of Hurricane Katrina inspired resentment in the affected communities – but did it bring about real change in the organization?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/84806031@N00/105307858">Dental Ben</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricanes, wildfires and earthquakes – is the Federal Emergency Management Agency ready for the new era of disasters?</p>
<p>I’m a professor of public administration and policy at <a href="https://www.cpap.vt.edu">Virginia Tech</a>, and I’ve written <a href="http://admin.cambridge.org/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/disasters-and-american-state-how-politicians-bureaucrats-and-public-prepare-unexpected?format=PB">a book</a> explaining why expectations of this agency are so high – unrealistically so.</p>
<p>After Hurricane Andrew hit Florida in 1992, the emergency manager of Dade County, Florida famously asked the media, “<a href="http://www.sptimes.com/2002/webspecials02/andrew/day3/story1.shtml">Where in the hell is the cavalry?”</a> after her requests for aid from FEMA went unanswered. Picking up on the anger, some members of Congress wanted to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0898588X06000010">abolish the agency</a> as punishment for its poor response. </p>
<p>FEMA survived, but it came under blistering criticism again after Hurricane Katrina killed <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/23/us/hurricane-katrina-statistics-fast-facts/index.html">1,833 people</a> and caused <a href="https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/extremeevents/specialreports/Hurricane-Katrina.pdf">more than US$100 billion in damage</a>.</p>
<p>The response to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fema-avoids-disaster-in-houston--so-far/2017/08/31/f8f709d0-8dc3-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html">gone much more smoothly</a> – at least so far. So what has changed with FEMA since Katrina?</p>
<h2>5 things that have changed</h2>
<h2>1. Leadership</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/our-responder-in-chief">Presidents</a> learned the importance of placing experienced emergency managers in charge of FEMA. During the Katrina disaster, President George W. Bush told FEMA Director Michael Brown, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4548480/katrina-10-years-later-brownie-youre-heck-job">“you’re doing a heck of a job.”</a> Ten days later, Brown resigned in disgrace. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185691/original/file-20170912-7125-19xak8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">FEMA director Michael Brown was forced to resign over his mishandling of Hurricane Katrina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/LM Otero</span></span>
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<p>Brown was only one of the agency’s problems at the time. An academic <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8663.html">analysis</a> found that turnover among FEMA leadership and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2008.03658.x/full">appointees without sufficient qualifications</a> contributed to the agency’s halting response. Before joining FEMA, Brown supervised judges at horse shows. He joined FEMA through <a href="http://www.nola.com/opinions/index.ssf/2016/08/michael_brown_fema.html">a connection with his friend</a> Joe Allbaugh who was President Bush’s first campaign manager and FEMA director.</p>
<p>Since Brown, presidents have appointed FEMA directors with emergency management experience. Current FEMA Director Brock Long was director of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency, and had previously worked at FEMA. </p>
<h2>#2. Community perspective</h2>
<p>One of the signature initiatives of FEMA during the Obama administration was the “whole community” approach, intended to involve the private sector, community groups and individual citizens in disaster preparedness. The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1813-25045-0649/whole_community_dec2011__2_.pdf">whole community approach</a> was intended to harness the assets of civil society, draw attention to disaster resilience and improve coordination. </p>
<p>For example, businesses played a key role in the Harvey response. Individual store owners opened as soon as they could to help distribute what people needed. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/inside-story-what-took-keep-texas-grocery-chain-running-chip-cutter">Texas grocer H.E.B.</a> sent convoys to the affected region. The whole community approach is not the only driver of private sector involvement, but it reflects FEMA’s commitment to approaching the private sector and groups of concerned citizens as partners rather than as subordinates in disaster response. </p>
<h2>#3. Cell phones and the web</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-social-media-apps-should-be-in-your-disaster-kit-83743">Social media</a> inspired collaborative, bottom-up responses that we have only begun to understand. During Katrina, social media was a hobby of techie students. Facebook was not yet available beyond universities. Today, government agencies and rural Texans and Floridians use social media. People found out which shelters were open and who needed help during the storm through texts and tweets. Social media also drives the government’s response because government responds to what’s on CNN. Imagine if pictures of the <a href="http://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/203207/five-days-at-memorial-by-sheri-fink/9780307718976/">dangerous conditions at Memorial Hospital</a>, hidden from news cameras during Katrina, had been circulated on the internet and broadcast on television. Lives might have been saved. </p>
<h2>#4. Going beyond rebuilding</h2>
<p>After Katrina, resilience replaced sustainability as the organizing concept in disaster management. Government agencies and private foundations used the term as a rallying cry to focus efforts on how to prepare for inevitable disasters rather than just avoid them. The <a href="http://www.100resilientcities.org/">Rockefeller Foundation</a> even funded resilience officers in local government beginning in 2013.</p>
<p>At its best, <a href="http://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/823/823">resilience</a> refers to the idea that communities can do more than just rebuild. They can invest in levees, canals, wetlands and insurance to adapt to a changing normal. </p>
<p>At its worst, resilience is an empty term that gives the impression that cities can bounce back if only they try hard enough. In truth, low-lying regions will have to decide to limit construction and inform people about true risks – both difficult in the face of a worldwide trend toward <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/program/urban-sustainability-laboratory">urbanization</a> and pressures to develop land and make money in the short term. </p>
<h2>#5. Early movers</h2>
<p>After Katrina, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/109th-congress/senate-bill/3721">Congress gave FEMA greater authority</a> to move resources to a disaster zone before a storm rather than wait for formal requests from governors after the event. Before Harvey, truckloads of food, water and tents were positioned outside of the flood zone, waiting for rains to subside so they could be sent to the recovery zone. <a href="https://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2017/aug/27/fema-arranges-aid-texas-louisiana/">Supplies from FEMA</a> and the Department of Defense arrived within hours, not days, after the rains ended. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/02/opinion/sunday/houston-texas-harvey-government.html?smid=fb-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0">FEMA’s pop-up hospital drew praise</a>. </p>
<h2>5 things that are the same</h2>
<p>Despite the lessons learned, some things have not changed. </p>
<h2>#1. Agency misfit</h2>
<p>FEMA is still a part of the Department of Homeland Security – an agency that has other priorities. The department was <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Disasters-American-State-Politicians-Bureaucrats/dp/1316631206">focused on terrorism during Katrina</a>, and now its chief policy priorities are immigration and borders. </p>
<h2>#2. Still not the cavalry</h2>
<p>Neighbors, city and county governments, and then the state are the first responders, not the federal government. Even at the federal level, FEMA primarily coordinates responses led by other agencies like defense, housing and agriculture. Meanwhile, businesses, nonprofits and even <a href="https://theconversation.com/cajun-navy-rescuers-in-hurricane-harvey-show-vital-role-of-volunteer-boats-83200">individuals with bass boats</a> mounted their own response. </p>
<h2>#3. Limited powers</h2>
<p>Decisions about land use, zoning and development are made at the state and local level, not by FEMA. <a href="http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29NH.1527-6996.0000222">State and local emergency managers</a> have very little pull over development, and changing the building stock to strengthen 100-year-old homes or make wise investments in new ones requires a larger effort.</p>
<h2>#4. Inequality matters</h2>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002/full">Socioeconomic status and vulnerability</a> still shape response. People with money are able to evacuate themselves, or return home and rebuild more quickly. People without financial resources, jobs or social connections <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/09/08/549295524/poor-in-miami-hoping-to-ride-out-irma-on-bread-and-cans-of-tuna?sc=tw">face greater obstacles</a> to returning to a normal life, and they need help. </p>
<h2>#5. Timing matters</h2>
<p>The best time to prepare for the next disaster is immediately after the current one. Now is the time to communicate true flood risks through <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/09/here_s_why_fema_s_flood_maps_are_so_terrible.html">flood mapping</a>, strengthen <a href="https://www.fema.gov/building-codes-toolkit">building and zoning guidance</a>, organize <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1022917721797?LI=true">community planning</a> efforts to know what to do when the worst happens, and build new infrastructure to <a href="https://www.projectbrays.org/about-project-brays/">send water out</a> of vulnerable areas. FEMA can be a partner in these efforts, but it requires leadership from politicians and bureaucrats at all levels of government. Until then, people will settle in risky places without reducing their vulnerability to storms, making the next disaster even more likely than the last. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story has been updated. An earlier version misstated that Michael Brown and Joe Allbaugh were roommates in college. Also, a typo has been corrected. Hurricane Katrina caused over $100 billion in damages, not $100 million.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Roberts has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Woodrow Wilson Center. </span></em></p>Is the Federal Emergency Management Agency ready for the new era of disasters?Patrick Roberts, Associate Professor, Virginia TechLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839162017-09-13T02:37:12Z2017-09-13T02:37:12Z5 ways to stretch your disaster relief dollars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185699/original/file-20170912-3792-fkaxxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Irma caused major damage to Naples and other Florida cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Irma/4de2e5b77abc4882a1aa93e503771faa/63/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans want to help the people suffering from recent natural disasters in the U.S. and elsewhere. </p>
<p>There’s no shortage of media reports <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/irma-victims-need-for-relief-is-only-beginning.html">listing groups</a> that are taking these donations, which may ultimately total <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-generosity-after-disasters-4-questions-answered-83277">billions of dollars</a>. But how can you make the most of your contributions?</p>
<p>Having researched giving in the wake of disasters and taught students how to be effective philanthropists, I’ve learned that it’s hard to make good decisions regarding donations – especially when there are many urgent needs and countless ways to spend charitable dollars.</p>
<p>Here are some best practices you may want to consider before you contribute.</p>
<h2>Give money, not goods</h2>
<p>The ideal way to show your compassion is to donate money to a charity that you respect rather than shipping cartons of diapers and cases of canned chili.</p>
<p>It’s easy to think of disasters in personal terms: “What if it were me or my family?” and picture what you’d need if you suddenly became homeless: clothes, food or toys. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=8b3ed693-4733-4f4b-9cb7-1c5ab3c36ad8&sp=1&sr=1&url=%2Fwhy-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">goods given</a> during emergencies often go to waste. Giving these things may make you feel like you’re making a real difference, but they can even do more harm than good when they interfere with disaster response efforts. </p>
<p>Besides, you aren’t likely to know what people on the (drenched) ground need. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These relief workers from the Red Cross offered food to people affected when Hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola, Florida, in 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/relief-workers-red-cross-offering-food-107991452?src=cWLGND1X--_x6vp8kF3M_Q-1-10">Joseph Sohm/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Donate to organizations operating on the scene</h2>
<p>But where should you send that money? It’s generally a good idea to support groups operating in the midst of the disaster. They can give money and other aid to the people who need it directly.</p>
<p>But first, do your homework to learn about an organization’s past performance. Established organizations are usually your best bet because they are the most apt to have staff, experience, infrastructure and roots in affected communities. National organizations like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricane-harvey-donors-shouldnt-boycott-the-red-cross-83289">Red Cross</a> and the Salvation Army have long track records in disaster response – albeit with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/10/29/359365276/on-superstorm-sandy-anniversary-red-cross-under-scrutiny">some baggage</a>.</p>
<p>To give locally, support groups firmly rooted in the affected area. Most American cities have United Way chapters and community foundations. After disasters these organizations typically raise money for relief work and make an effort to direct donations to where the funds are most needed. In the aftermath of both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, <a href="https://www.unitedway.org/">United Way Worldwide</a> has established funds to support relief efforts in <a href="https://www.unitedway.org/hurricane-harvey">Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.unitedway.org/hurricane-irma">Florida</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, community foundations based in <a href="https://ghcf.org/">Houston</a>, <a href="https://www.cfsetx.org/">Beaumont</a>, Texas and <a href="http://miamifoundation.org/">Miami</a> have established relief funds. These organizations have a long history of service to their local communities.</p>
<p>Sadly, many people outside the United States are also suffering from recent disasters. Not only has Hurricane Irma ravaged the Caribbean, but Mexico experienced its <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/americas/earthquake-hits-off-the-coast-of-southern-mexico/index.html">largest earthquake</a> in a century, which also caused damage in Guatemala. The <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/mexico-earthquake-1.4284655">death toll</a> is nearing 100, yet it has garnered scant attention in the U.S. </p>
<p>The earthquake as well as floods and landslides in <a href="https://theconversation.com/facing-disasters-lessons-from-a-bangladeshi-island-80706">Bangladesh</a> and other <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/voluntary-sector-network/2017/sep/12/bangladesh-severe-disaster-flooding">South Asian countries</a> also require disaster relief. Established international organizations such as <a href="https://www.unicefusa.org/donate/disaster-relief-help-protect-children-harm/32787?ms=referral_dig_2017_emergencies_20170908_Unicefweb&initialms=referral_dig_2017_emergencies_20170908_Unicefweb">UNICEF</a> and <a href="http://www.americares.org/en/">Americares</a> are seeking donations to support those efforts. </p>
<h2>Consider long-term priorities</h2>
<p>Photos and video clips of streets transformed into rivers, stranding residents, can create an urge to make a difference immediately. But, as previous disasters like Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina showed, the needs are sure to mount. That’s why more than one in four organizations <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/The-Lessons-of-9-11/157903">created after 9/11</a> was still providing relief five years later. </p>
<p>Be mindful that people in afflicted areas throughout Texas, Florida, Mexico, Guatemala, the Caribbean and South Asia will need our money long after recent disasters stop making headlines. Your donation may matter six months or even years from now as much as it does today. Nonetheless, donation forms may offer you the option to indicate how you want your contribution used – including having it spent right away if you feel strongly about it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, third from the left, and other local leaders took part in this groundbreaking ceremony in 2011 for a US$1.2 billion hospital complex that replaced facilities destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Charity-Hospital/5430e2221daf4adba43d95bd9e0860b4/44/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Maximize the speed and size of your gift</h2>
<p>Many nonprofits are encouraging people to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/hurricane-irma-how-help-storm-victims-n800101">donate by sending texts</a>, an approach that may seem like the fastest way to give.</p>
<p>But wireless companies tend to wait until you officially cover the donation’s cost – by paying your bill – before passing that money along to the charity. That can delay payments by weeks or even months.</p>
<p>If getting your money to Jacksonville, Florida or another community fast is your top concern, make online donations with a credit card or a debit card. Even “a check in the mail” would transmit funds faster than texting, says <a href="https://twitter.com/CountingCharity/status/901958062940069892">Brian Mittendorf</a>, who teaches accounting at the Ohio State University Fisher College of Business. </p>
<p>Mittendorf also cautions that giving through crowdfunding can mean that intermediaries <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-12/america-s-health-care-crisis-is-a-gold-mine-for-crowdfunding">skim fees</a> that might otherwise go to disaster relief or another cause you support. Credit card companies also usually collect <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/banking/donate-charities-corporations/">transaction fees</a>.</p>
<p>In short, being an informed donor is the best way you can start to make a difference for the people who have lost their homes, cars and more.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How much of your donation will cover transaction fees?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-sharing-profit-closeup-shot-560291707?src=afpK7FbSHJp0BwQFOhkNXg-1-51">OBprod/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article originally published on Aug. 30, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83916/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Campbell has served on Charity Navigator's academic advisory board; and a board member for the United Way of New York State. </span></em></p>The desire to help during emergencies like Hurricane Irma is admirable. Doing some homework might make your contributions go farther.David Campbell, Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/831302017-08-30T10:29:20Z2017-08-30T10:29:20ZStretching your donation dollars: 5 tips<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183857/original/file-20170829-6715-ae6dh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Residents pick through a makeshift aid station in Rockport, Texas after Harvey struck their city.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey/602c5d39668848be993bd74b7fcefbec/1/0">AP Photo/Eric Gay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans want to help the people suffering from <a href="http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/A-Closer-Look-at-Hurricane-Harvey-442060473.html">Hurricane Harvey</a> and its <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">unprecedented floods</a>. </p>
<p>There’s no shortage of media reports listing which groups are taking donations, often with scant guidance about what kinds of relief these organizations can offer. </p>
<p>Having researched giving in the wake of disasters and taught students how to be effective philanthropists, I’ve learned that it’s hard to make good decisions regarding donations – especially when there are many urgent needs and countless ways to spend charitable dollars. Here are some best practices you may want to consider before you contribute.</p>
<h2>Give money, not goods</h2>
<p>The ideal way to show your compassion is to donate money to a charity that you respect, rather than shipping cartons of diapers and cases of canned chili.</p>
<p>It’s easy to think of disasters in personal terms: “What if it were me or my family?” and picture what you’d need if you suddenly became homeless: clothes, food or toys. But <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-disaster-relief-brings-anything-but-relief/">goods given</a> during emergencies often <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/01/09/168946170/thanks-but-no-thanks-when-post-disaster-donations-overwhelm">go to waste</a>. These donations can even do more harm than good when they interfere with disaster response efforts. </p>
<p>Besides, you aren’t likely to know what people on the (drenched) ground need. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183862/original/file-20170829-6691-u72cc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These relief workers from the Red Cross offered food to people impacted when Hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola, Florida, in 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/relief-workers-red-cross-offering-food-107991452?src=cWLGND1X--_x6vp8kF3M_Q-1-10">Joseph Sohm/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Donate to organizations operating on the scene</h2>
<p>But where should you send that money? It’s generally a good idea to support groups operating in the midst of the disaster. They can give money and other aid to the people who need it directly.</p>
<p>But first, do your homework to learn about an organization’s past performance. Established organizations are usually your best bet because they are the most apt to have staff, experience, infrastructure and roots in affected communities. National organizations like the Red Cross and the Salvation Army have long track records in disaster response. </p>
<p>Every disaster raises questions about established organizations’ relief efforts, such as how <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/10/29/359365276/on-superstorm-sandy-anniversary-red-cross-under-scrutiny">the Red Cross</a> spent funds donated after Superstorm Sandy on public relations stunts and other activities not directly tied to relief efforts, and the Salvation Army’s <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/12/16/salvation-army-sandy-relief/4038141/">decision to hold back relief</a> after that same disaster to spend later on in the recovery process. When you give, it’s important to keep that history in mind.</p>
<p>If you prefer to give locally, support groups firmly rooted in the affected area. In Harvey’s aftermath, that might mean the <a href="https://www.unitedwayhouston.org/">United Way of Greater Houston</a> and the <a href="http://ghcf.org/">Greater Houston Community Foundation</a>, which both have established relief funds and a long history of service to the local community.</p>
<p>You can screen organizations using tools like <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1284">Charity Navigator</a>, which rates nonprofits based on several <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1284">performance metrics</a>. It has compiled a list of <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=5239&utm_content=bufferf2bc8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">highly rated Texas groups</a> involved in relief efforts. <a href="http://www.guidestar.org/Home.aspx">Guidestar</a> is another useful resource. While it does not rate charities, it provides basic financial data about them and allows nonprofits to upload information about their programs and results that you can use to help make your giving decisions. Guidestar also offers <a href="https://learn.guidestar.org/give-to-charity/donor-resources/giving-to-disaster-relief-and-recovery">guidelines</a> about giving during disasters and a <a href="https://trust.guidestar.org/helping-in-the-wake-of-hurricane-harvey">list of groups</a> active in the relief effort. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183861/original/file-20170829-6747-1eae4zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People like toddler Robert Salgado have to sleep on the floor at the George R. Brown Convention Center after escaping the floodwaters in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey/ebf867bc8f7f402dbe4123d05a35295a/10/0">AP Photo/LM Otero</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Support established nonprofits</h2>
<p>Sometimes new groups sprout up to respond to catastrophes like the ones now unfolding in Texas that seem tailor-made for supporting people in distress but have some shortcomings. </p>
<p>When I studied the <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0275074009336205">philanthropic response after the 9/11 attacks</a>, I found that more than 250 new organizations emerged to meet the needs of people affected by that disaster. New organizations can play important roles, particularly those connected to marginalized groups, like immigrants, who may not trust established institutions. That was the case with the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/nml.20017/full">Windows of Hope Family Relief Fund</a>, an organization I advised after 9/11. </p>
<p>But it can take time for new groups to get up and running, and in the meantime there’s no track record for donors to check out. While most new organizations are led by people moved to make a difference, some are opportunists committing fraud, like the founders of the <a href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/02/founders_of_hurricane_sandy_ch.html">Hurricane Sandy Relief Foundation</a>. Fundraising services like the <a href="https://www.10tv.com/article/donating-harvey-relief-efforts-how-when-what-give">GoFundMe</a> campaigns established to help Harvey victims pose the same risks if they are not tied to established organizations. </p>
<p>If you itemize your taxes and plan to deduct your contribution, note that you can do so only if the IRS has certified the organization’s <a href="https://www.irs.gov/charities-non-profits/charitable-organizations/exemption-requirements-section-501-c-3-organizations">nonprofit status</a>. Most contributions to new nonprofits and GoFundMe campaigns aren’t tax-deductible. But gifts to the <a href="https://ghcf.org/">Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund</a>, which the city of Houston has already established, are.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183863/original/file-20170829-6691-13177h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some, but not all, new nonprofits that crop up during emergencies fill previously unmet needs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/relief-workers-red-cross-offering-food-107991452?src=cWLGND1X--_x6vp8kF3M_Q-1-10">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Consider long-term priorities</h2>
<p>Photos and video clips of streets transformed into rivers, stranding residents, can create an urge to make a difference immediately. But, as recent disasters like Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina showed, the needs are sure to mount. That’s why more than one in four of organizations <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/The-Lessons-of-9-11/157903">created after 9/11</a> was still providing relief five years later. </p>
<p>Be mindful that people in Houston, Rockport and other <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/misery-from-harvey-stretches-far-beyond-hardest-hit-areas/">afflicted areas</a> in Texas, <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-harvey-louisiana-forecast-new-orleans-baton-rouge-lake-charles">and possibly Louisiana</a>, will need our money long after Harvey stops making headlines. Your donation may matter six months or even years from now as much as it does today. Nonetheless, donation forms may offer you the option to indicate how you want your contribution used – including having it spent right away if you feel strongly about it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183865/original/file-20170829-6710-5y2v71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, third from the left, and other local leaders took part in this groundbreaking ceremony in 2011 for a US$1.2 billion hospital complex that replaced facilities destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Charity-Hospital/5430e2221daf4adba43d95bd9e0860b4/44/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Maximize the speed and size of your gift</h2>
<p>Many nonprofits are encouraging people to <a href="http://abc7chicago.com/weather/how-to-help-the-victims-of-hurricane-harvey/2348094/">donate by sending texts</a>, an approach that may seem like the fastest way to give.</p>
<p>But wireless companies tend to wait until you officially cover the donation’s cost – by paying your bill – before passing that money along to the charity. That can delay payments by weeks or even months.</p>
<p>If getting your money to Houston or another community fast is your top concern, make online donations with a credit card or a debit card. Even “a check in the mail” would transmit funds faster than texting, says <a href="https://twitter.com/CountingCharity/status/901958062940069892">Brian Mittendorf</a>, who teaches accounting at the Ohio State University Fisher College of Business. </p>
<p>Mittendorf also cautions that giving through crowdfunding can mean that intermediaries <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-12/america-s-health-care-crisis-is-a-gold-mine-for-crowdfunding">skim fees</a> that might otherwise go to disaster relief or another cause you support. Credit card companies also usually collect <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/banking/donate-charities-corporations/">transaction fees</a>.</p>
<p>In short, being an informed donor is the best way you can start to make a difference for the people who have lost their homes, cars and more.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183870/original/file-20170829-5092-38pdv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How much of your gift will cover transaction fees?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-sharing-profit-closeup-shot-560291707?src=afpK7FbSHJp0BwQFOhkNXg-1-51">OBprod/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83130/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Campbell has served on Charity Navigator's Academic Advisory Board. </span></em></p>The desire to help during emergencies like Hurricane Harvey is admirable. With a little homework, your contributions will go further.David Campbell, Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/810122017-08-28T17:48:57Z2017-08-28T17:48:57ZAmericans who live far from coasts should also be worried about flooding<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183528/original/file-20170827-27532-87za4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Two people walk down a flooded section of Interstate 610 in Houston in floodwaters from Tropical Storm Harvey on Sunday, Aug. 27, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Harvey/536472b9e91446d68c240c3a3fc92fdb/4/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Catastrophic flooding in Houston from Hurricane Harvey is the latest reminder that floods <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/floods/">kill more people in the United States</a> than any other type of natural disaster and are the <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-natural-disasters-2015-global-perspective">most common natural disaster worldwide</a>. Many communities along U.S. coastlines have begun to take heed and have slowed development in coastal flood zones. The bad news, as Harvey shows, is that inland communities are also at risk – and in some, development in flood zones is increasing.</p>
<p>With post-doctoral research associate <a href="http://www.socialsciences.hawaii.edu/profile/index.cfm?email=yi.qiang@hawaii.edu">Yi Qiang</a> and graduate students, I recently studied <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1320214">development patterns in the United States from 2001 to 2011</a>. We found that while new urban development in flood zones near coasts has generally declined, it has grown in inland counties. This is a worrisome trend. It implies that people who have experienced flooding on the coast migrate inland, but may not realize that they are still vulnerable if they relocate to an inland flood zone. </p>
<p>That’s what we have seen firsthand here in Louisiana. Thousands of people fled New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and settled 80 miles inland in Baton Rouge. A decade later, many of these same people lost everything again when <a href="https://www.nola.com/traffic/index.ssf/2016/08/baton_rouge_flooding_ptsd.html">a 500-year flood event</a> struck Baton Rouge in August 2016. </p>
<p>Climate change effects, such as sea level rise and potentially more <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-hurricane-katrina-what-have-we-learned-46297">extreme weather</a>, are increasing the risk of flooding, hurricanes and storm surges in coastal areas. Some communities are considering <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-22/nj-s-blue-acres-program-a-new-strategy-for-climate-change">moving coastal populations inland</a> to protect them. However, our research shows that people should be very careful about moving inland. They can still face flood hazards if their property is located in a high-risk flood zone. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183529/original/file-20170827-27579-ftyg8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Damage from floods in Boulder County, Colorado, September 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5a/Jamestown%2C_Colorado_Cut_Off_by_2013_Colorado_Floods.jpg">Steve Zumwalt/FEMA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not just a coastal issue</h2>
<p>Flooding can happen wherever large rainstorms stall over an area, as we have seen in Boulder, Colorado in 2013; in Texas and Louisiana in 2016; and over Houston now. However, if communities take steps to reduce flood risk, they can mitigate the danger to people and property.</p>
<p>When we assess flood risk in a given location, we consider three questions. </p>
<ul>
<li>Hazard: How likely is a flood event?</li>
<li>Exposure: How many people and physical assets are located there?</li>
<li>Vulnerability: Do people have the capacity to deal with the event? </li>
</ul>
<p>Flood risk is the product of these three elements. </p>
<p>We can decrease flood risk by reducing any of the three elements. For example, communities can reduce hazard by building flood control structures, such as dams and levees. They can use laws and policies, such as land use controls, to reduce exposure by steering housing development away from flood zones. And they can make people and property less vulnerable through other measures, such as elevating houses and developing better flood warning systems and emergency preparedness plans. </p>
<p>How can people learn about flood risks where they live? The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> has created <a href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search">flood zone maps</a> for most parts of the United States. The maps are based on models that consider factors such as elevation, average rainfall and whether a location is near a river or lake that could overflow. </p>
<p>FEMA maps classify <a href="https://www.fema.gov/flood-zones">flood zones</a> into three categories: high-risk, moderate-low risk and undetermined. High-risk zones have at least a 1 percent chance of being inundated by flood in any given year. These areas are also called base flood or 100-year flood zones. </p>
<p>To obtain a federally insured mortgage on property in a 100-year flood zone, buyers are required to have flood insurance. This policy is designed to make people less vulnerable in the event of a flood, but it increases the cost of home ownership. As a result, flood zone designations can be very contentious. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EACkiMRT0pc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">100-year flood zones are based on a combination of statistics, hydrogeology and society’s tolerance for risk.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving into harm’s way</h2>
<p>We undertook this study because we wanted to develop a clear baseline showing how Americans’ exposure to flood hazards has changed over the past decade. To assess levels of exposure to flood hazards nationwide, we compiled urban development, flood zone and census data and overlaid them on a county map of the nation.</p>
<p>Overall, we estimated that as of 2011, more than 25 million Americans lived in flood zones. We also found that inland communities were less responsive to flood hazards than coastal communities and were doing a poorer job of steering development out of flood-prone areas. </p>
<p>The three U.S. counties with the largest concentrations of people living in flood zones are located on the Gulf of Mexico. They are Cameron Parish, Louisiana (population 6,401, with 93.6 percent in flood zones); Monroe County, Florida (population 66,804, with 91.4 percent in flood zones); and Galveston County, Texas (population 241,204, with 82.8 percent in flood zones). </p>
<p>These are all coastal communities, where flood risks should be well-known to all residents. But we also found inland counties where the share of the total population living in flood zones increased over the decade we examined. A number of those with the largest increases are bordered by rivers, such as Marshall County in western Kentucky, which sits between Kentucky Lake and the Ohio River. We also identified several hot spots where urban development has increased in coastal flood zones, including New York City and Miami. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183530/original/file-20170827-27564-9nlihg.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to reach hundreds of miles inland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0917WPCQPF+gif/153129WPCQPF_sm.gif">National Weather Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reducing exposure now</h2>
<p>This alarming trend points to a need for more awareness, education and communication about flood risk, especially in inland counties. More affordable housing in nonflood zones and strategies to mitigate floods are also needed, especially inland. </p>
<p>Why would people move to inland flood zone areas? Some may be unaware of the risk. Others may plan to adapt through steps such as elevating their houses or buying flood insurance. Still other may accept the risk because they want to be closer to relatives or workplaces, or for other cultural, political or institutional reasons. </p>
<p>Our analysis has pinpointed a number of regions of concern. The next step is to produce in-depth analyses of these regions, in order to understand why people are locating in flood zones there, and to devise local strategies to reduce overall U.S. flood risks. Climate change, <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/ogw/subsidence.html">land subsidence</a> or sinking, and construction of new levees and dams will change long-term flood exposure in these areas over time. Therefore, local governments, mortgage lenders and homeowners should review <a href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal">current FEMA flood hazard maps</a> for accuracy.</p>
<p>This research provides national context for a detailed study that we are carrying out examining resilience and sustainability in the Mississippi River Delta. Our goal is to understand how human actions combined with natural environmental conditions may have <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4">caused land to sink in the Mississippi Delta</a>. Our research on development in flood zones reminds us that flooding problems in low-lying coastal regions are not unique and also affect areas well away from the shore.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Research for this article was partially supported by two grants from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>As Hurricane Harvey shows, flooding can happen wherever large storms stall and dumps lots of rain. A new study finds that development is increasing in flood zones inland, where people may not think they are at risk.Nina Lam, Distinguished Professor of Louisiana Environmental Studies, Louisiana State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/830982017-08-28T06:03:28Z2017-08-28T06:03:28ZIs Hurricane Harvey a harbinger for Houston’s future?<p>Over the past week we have seen two major tropical storms devastate different parts of the world. First Typhoon Hato struck Hong Kong and Southern China <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-24/typhoon-hato-hits-southern-china/8838850">killing at least a dozen people</a>. And over the weekend Hurricane Harvey made landfall from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing extremely heavy rain to southern Texas and causing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-28/catastrophic-floods-strike-houston-thousands-flee-homes/8847624">devastating floods in Houston</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901832717070983169"}"></div></p>
<p>Tropical cyclones are, of course, a natural feature of our climate. But the extreme impacts of these recent storms, especially in Houston, has understandably led to questions over whether climate change is to blame.</p>
<h2>How are tropical cyclones changing?</h2>
<p>Tropical cyclones, called typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and hurricanes in the North Atlantic, are major storm systems that initiate near the Equator and can hit locations in the tropics and subtropics around the world. </p>
<p>When we look at the Atlantic Basin we see increases in tropical storm numbers over the past century, although there is high year-to-year variability. The year 2005, when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, marks the high point.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183559/original/file-20170828-27527-1whr52i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There is a trend towards more tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">US National Hurricane Center</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can be confident that we’re seeing more severe tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic than we did a few decades ago. It is likely that climate change has contributed to this trend, although there is low statistical confidence associated with this statement. What that means is that this observed increase in hurricane frequency is more likely than not linked with climate change, but the increase may also be linked to decadal variability.</p>
<h2>Has Harvey been enhanced by climate change?</h2>
<p>Unlike other types of extreme weather <a href="https://theconversation.com/southeast-europe-swelters-through-another-heatwave-with-a-human-fingerprint-82139">such as heatwaves</a>, the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is hard to pin down. This is because tropical cyclones form as a result of <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090827030639/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A15.html">many factors coming together</a>, including high sea surface temperatures, and weak changes in wind strength through the depth of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>These storms are also difficult to simulate using climate models. To study changes in tropical cyclones we need to run our models at high resolution and with interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean being represented.</p>
<p>It’s much easier to study heat extremes, because we can do this by looking at a single, continuous variable: temperature. Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, are not a continuous variable; they either form or they don’t. This makes them much harder to model and study.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones also have many different characteristics that might change in unpredictable ways as they develop, including their track, their overall size, and their strength. Different aspects of the cyclones are likely to change in different ways, and no two cyclones are the same. Compare that with a heatwave, which often have similar spatial features.</p>
<p>For all these reasons, it is very hard to say exactly how climate change has affected Hurricane Harvey.</p>
<h2>So what can we say?</h2>
<p>While it’s hard to pin the blame for Hurricane Harvey directly on climate change, we can say this: human-caused climate change has enhanced some of the impacts of the storm.</p>
<p>Fortunately, in Harvey’s case, the storm surge hasn’t been too bad, unlike for Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, for example. This is because <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-27/lack-of-a-storm-surge-keeps-harvey-from-katrina-sandy-status">Harvey did not travel as far, and weakened rapidly when it made landfall</a>.</p>
<p>We know that storm surges due to tropical cyclones have been enhanced by climate change. This is because the <a href="https://theconversation.com/contributions-to-sea-level-rise-have-increased-by-half-since-1993-largely-because-of-greenlands-ice-79175">background sea level has increased</a>, making it more likely that storm surges will inundate larger unprotected coastal regions.</p>
<p>Building levees and sea walls can alleviate some of these impacts, although these barriers will need to be higher (and therefore more expensive) in the future to keep out the rising seas.</p>
<h2>Deluge danger</h2>
<p>Harvey’s biggest effect is through its intense and prolonged rainfall. A low pressure system to the north is keeping Harvey over southern Texas, resulting in greater rainfall totals.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901968781634748416"}"></div></p>
<p>The rainfall totals are <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901975198517395456">already remarkable</a> and are only going to get worse.</p>
<p>We know that climate change is enhancing extreme rainfall. As the atmosphere is getting warmer it can hold more moisture (roughly <a href="https://theconversation.com/increases-in-rainfall-extremes-linked-to-global-warming-11933">7% more for every 1°C rise in temperature</a>). This means that when we get the right circumstances for very extreme rainfall to occur, climate change is likely to make these events even worse than they would have been otherwise. Without a full analysis it is hard to put exact numbers on this effect, but on a basic level, wetter skies mean more intense rain.</p>
<h2>Houston, we have a problem</h2>
<p>There are other factors that are making this storm worse than others in terms of its impact. Houston is the <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/local/gray-matters/article/Houston-among-the-fastest-growing-cities-in-the-7743136.php">second-fastest growing city</a> in the US, and the fourth most populous overall. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901852872547213314"}"></div></p>
<p>As the region’s population grows, more and more of southern Texas is being paved with impermeable surfaces. This means that when there is extreme rainfall the water takes longer to drain away, prolonging and intensifying the floods.</p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey is likely to end up being one of the most costly disasters in US history. It is also likely that climate change and population growth in the region have worsened the effects of this major storm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<h4 class="border">Disclosure</h4><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>The unpredictability of hurricanes makes it hard to say for sure whether climate change is making them worse. But we do know that sea-level rise and increased evaporation will worsen the impacts.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/826792017-08-21T23:31:48Z2017-08-21T23:31:48ZHow green roofs can protect city streets from flooding<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182627/original/file-20170818-7961-1wbxi48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Acros Fukuoka eco-building in Fukuoka, Japan boasts one of the world's most famous green roofs. The GRIT Lab at the University of Toronto is working to bring green roofs to the city and beyond in order to combat climate change. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Spring and summer 2017 have been among the wettest on record in eastern North America. And the world is still watching Houston, where Hurricane Harvey caused devastating flooding.</p>
<p>Rainfall amounts in the spring <a href="http://www.citynews.ca/2017/05/25/heavy-rains-flood-roads-toronto-breaks-weather-record/">broke records</a> in places like Toronto, where 44.6 millimetres of rain fell in 24 hours. The downpours earlier this spring caused the stormwater infrastructure in Canada’s biggest city to overflow, leading to flooding of busy downtown streets.</p>
<p>Urbanization in many North American cities has led to a rapid loss of permeable surfaces where water can freely drain. Coupled with the growing downtown core population in cities Toronto, this means that the stormwater and sewer systems in place must manage more water than in previous decades. </p>
<p>Furthermore, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/27/climate-change-human-fingerprint-found-on-global-extreme-weather">global temperature increases have been linked to the rise in extreme weather events worldwide</a>, a trend that could worsen if global warming is not brought under control.</p>
<p>Many cities are <a href="https://esemag.com/stormwater/toronto-examines-a-new-stormwater-management-approach/">ill-equipped</a> to deal with these unprecedented amounts of precipitation due to their insufficient and outdated stormwater infrastructure. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182646/original/file-20170818-20193-ntl38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tow truck driver walks through flood waters after hooking up a car on the Don Valley Parkway in Toronto after a major rainstorm in July 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/contentonly?vgnextoid=fc8807ceb6f8e310VgnVCM10000071d60f89RCRD">Twenty three per cent of Toronto’s downtown sewers are combined</a>, meaning that both the city’s stormwater and wastewater flow together within one pipe to a water treatment plant. In periods of heavy rainfall, the amount of stormwater in the sewer can reach capacity and overflow onto Toronto’s streets and into its lake and rivers.</p>
<p>That means to prevent flooding in downtown areas, sewage is released — untreated — into bodies of water that permit swimming and other recreational sports. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/mar/22/global-warming-is-increasing-rainfall-rates">rainfall amounts on the rise globally</a>, it’s a crucial time to examine how cities can retrofit their existing building infrastructure to alleviate flood damage and deal with stormwater in a more sustainable manner. </p>
<p>Green infrastructure technologies, such as permeable pavements, <a href="http://greencampsinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/bioswales1.pdf">bioswales,</a> cisterns and green roofs, are now commonly recommended to confront extreme weather events. </p>
<h2>Green roofs for stormwater management</h2>
<p>Green roofs are a green infrastructure (<a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/alex/benv/2007/00000033/00000001/art00008">GI</a>) option that can be applied to virtually any rooftop given weight load capacity. The benefits of green roofs extend far beyond their obvious aesthetic appeal. </p>
<p><a href="http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0001534">A study done by University of Toronto civil engineer Jenny Hill and co-researchers</a> at the school’s Green Roof Innovation Testing Lab (<a href="http://grit.daniels.utoronto.ca/">GRIT Lab</a>) showed that green roofs have the capacity to capture an average of 70 per cent of rainfall over a given time, relieving underground stormwater systems and releasing the rain water back into the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182609/original/file-20170818-7956-1gitkk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Toronto's GRIT Lab</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The study examined four green roof design variables that represent the most common industry practices: Planting type (succulents or grasses and herbaceous flowering plants), soil substitute (mineral, wood compost), planting depth (10 centimetres or 15 centimetres) and irrigation schedule (none, daily or sensor-activated), and how these four factors influenced water capture.</p>
<p>The watering schedule was shown to have the greatest effect, with retention capacity increasing from 50 per cent with daily irrigation to 70 per cent with sensor-activated or no irrigation. In other words, roofs that have not been watered, or are only watered when their soil reaches a predetermined moisture level, have a greater capacity to absorb stormwater. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the study calculated a new peak runoff coefficient — a constant value used to calculate the capacity of a green roof to hold water — for green roofs to be around 0.1-0.15, an 85 to 90 per cent reduction compared to an impermeable surface. </p>
<p>Designers and engineers routinely use a figure of 0.5 (50 per cent reduction) to assess green roof performance. This discrepancy between industry practice and regional evidence-based findings highlights the need for further research.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1002&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1002&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182610/original/file-20170818-7944-18xnd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1002&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rooftop succulents and flowering plants on the GRIT lab’s green roof.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Toronto's GRIT Lab</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second most significant variable for stormwater retention was the soil substitute. The most widely used green roof planting material is based on guidelines from the German Landscape Research, Development and Construction Society (<a href="https://www.epa.gov/region8/introduction-german-fll-guideline-planning-execution-and-upkeep-green-roof-sites">FLL</a>).</p>
<p>The FLL recommended a mineral aggregate because it’s thought to be longer-lasting and hardier than biological soil substitutes. But this recommendation has been challenged by <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925857416302804">research today</a>.</p>
<p>Hill and her team compared the mineral growing material to wood compost. The compost outperformed the mineral by 10 per cent (70 per cent versus 60 per cent rainfall retained) in beds with no irrigation, and had <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925857416302804">minimal compression or break-down over time.</a></p>
<p>Another key finding in Hill’s study demonstrated that when already damp, either from watering or rain, the planting material had the biggest influence on water retention. The compost outperformed the mineral soil substitute by as much as three times when fully saturated (83 per cent rainfall retained versus 29 per cent). </p>
<h2>Compost a better soil substitute</h2>
<p>That means that the compost not only performed better in every season, but it performed a great deal better in rainy seasons and during back-to-back storms.</p>
<p>Planting depth (10 centimetres versus 15 centimetres) and the plant family (<a href="http://grit.daniels.utoronto.ca/data/species-fact-sheets/">succulents</a> versus <a href="http://grit.daniels.utoronto.ca/data/species-fact-sheets/">grass and herbaceous flowering plants</a>) were both shown to have scant impact on stormwater retention compared to the planting material and watering schedule. </p>
<p>And so without compromising stormwater management, plant selection can meet aesthetic goals and environmental benchmarks such as biodiversity and species habitat. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182625/original/file-20170818-7944-n5wkci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bee hovers around a flowering plant at the U of T’s GRIT Lab rooftop garden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">U of T GRIT Lab</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the constraints for green roof construction is weight loading, particularly in buildings that were not originally constructed to accommodate the weight of a saturated green roof. Thus, a 10 centimetre planting depth as opposed to 15 would mean more roofs could be eligible for retrofit.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, even though a biodiverse plant palette including grasses and herbaceous plants would be a more aesthetically and ecologically rich green roof option, those plants do require watering in order to survive in cities like Toronto. Since irrigation has a negative effect on stormwater retention, green roof designers can consider drought-resistant succulent plants like sedum.</p>
<p>However, when herbaceous plants are planted in compost rather than mineral planting materials, the decrease in stormwater retention capacity could be prevented. </p>
<p>On-demand irrigation activated by a soil moisture sensor can balance water management with water availability for plant growth. Furthermore, compost weighs significantly less than mineral planting material, opening up more potential for retrofits. </p>
<p>And so Hill and her team’s research into four distinct green roof variables allows us to understand the benefits and limitations of each, and how they can be combined.</p>
<h2>Green roofs: Optimal green infrastructure</h2>
<p>In our opinion as researchers at the GRIT Lab, green roofs are the optimal urban green infrastructure due to their multi-functionality: They can be retrofitted onto existing buildings, they provide biodiverse space for <a href="https://livingroofs.org/biodiversity-and-wildlife/">urban wildlife</a> and they can be enriching <a href="http://www.401richmond.com/about/gardens/the-roof-garden/">public spaces</a> for city-dwellers to enjoy. Additionally, green roofs can make previously inhospitable places pleasant, and provide new outdoor space for office workers.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182626/original/file-20170818-7934-15qnfw7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A butterfly flutters around flowers at the GRIT Lab green roof.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">U of T GRIT Lab</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These recent findings clearly show the potential of green roofs. But thorough scientific studies on green roofs, like those undertaken at the GRIT Lab, are necessary in order to determine the best green roof composition for optimal performance. </p>
<p>For example, though planting type had little effect on stormwater retention, the herbaceous mix of native plants has been shown to be more <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11252-014-0408-6">attractive for native bees</a> and is arguably more attractive. This information is critical; although succulents are currently the industry standard, planting only succulents on roofs could potentially have a negative impact on urban ecology in various regions. </p>
<p>An additional variable to consider when designing a green roof is its location. <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15659801.2015.1052635?journalCode=tiee20">GRIT Lab researcher Scott MacIvor and co-researchers</a> found that building height matters: There are far fewer bee hives when green roofs are too high, and so designing a roof aimed at helping bees higher than eight storeys would be futile. </p>
<p>As storm events become more frequent and severe for municipalities, cities with aging stormwater infrastructure are struggling to find ways to alleviate the impact. Green roofs can be a part of this solution, but all green roofs are not created equal. The proper research and knowledge is essential.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article first published on Aug. 21, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Howell works for the GRIT Lab and is a Master of Landscape Architecture student at the University of Toronto. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Drake receives funding from NSERC. She is affiliated with GRIT Lab at the University of Toronto. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liat Margolis receives funding from NSERC, Mitacs, Ontario Centres of Excellence, Connaught Fund, RCI Foundation, and Landscape Architecture Canada Foundation. She is the Director of the GRIT Lab at the University of Toronto.</span></em></p>Green roofs could play a critical role in helping cities cope with extreme rainfall events in the age of climate change. The roofs essentially suck up stormwater like sponges if designed properly.Catherine Howell, Research Assistant, GRIT Lab, University of TorontoJennifer Drake, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, University of TorontoLiat Margolis, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture , University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/787962017-06-14T02:21:27Z2017-06-14T02:21:27ZCities can jump-start climate progress by plugging in their vehicles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173449/original/file-20170612-10208-79ri0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck, left, and Mayor Eric Garcetti pose next to an all-electric car in this 2015 photo. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Police-Electric-Vehicles/72af7c08abd64bafb565c8a919651031/1/0">AP Photo/Nick Ut</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump’s decision to exit the Paris climate agreement reaffirmed what was already clear: The federal government is no longer leading American efforts to shrink our carbon footprint. But many state and local governments – <a href="http://www.wearestillin.com">along with businesses</a> <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2017/06/trump_won_t_fight_climate_change_here_s_your_plan_to_do_it_instead.html">and consumers</a> – aim to help fill this policy void.</p>
<p>At least a dozen governors have joined the <a href="http://governor.wa.gov/news-media/united-states-climate-alliance-adds-10-new-members-coalition-committed-upholding-paris">United States Climate Alliance</a>, committing their states to achieve emissions reductions consistent with President Barack Obama’s Paris pledge. More than <a href="https://medium.com/@ClimateMayors/climate-mayors-commit-to-adopt-honor-and-uphold-paris-climate-agreement-goals-ba566e260097">200 mayors</a> are promising their cities will follow suit.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.04.039">My research</a> with my former student <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/shayaksengupta/">Shayak Sengupta</a> about how cities can benefit from buying electric cars suggests that fuel-free municipal fleets can cut urban carbon footprints while improving <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-069X-6-23">public health</a> and saving taxpayers money.</p>
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<h2>Options for states and cities</h2>
<p>States can help curb emissions in many ways, such as by <a href="https://www.rggi.org/">setting caps</a> on power plant emissions and <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/state_local_governments/basics_portfolio_standards.html">creating incentives and targets</a> for renewable electricity.</p>
<p>Most of those steps lies beyond the jurisdiction of cities. So how can they take climate action?</p>
<p>Urban governments most strongly impact emissions by <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67101.pdf">influencing the behavior</a> of local residents and businesses through building codes and incentives, public transit and urban planning. Buying <a href="http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1080871_electric-car-price-guide-every-2015-2016-plug-in-car-with-specs-updated">increasingly affordable</a> electric vehicles gives cities an additional opportunity to cut <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf">climate-warming emissions</a> by reducing the amount of fossil fuels their vehicles consume.</p>
<p>Historically, cities and transit agencies turned to <a href="http://www.cngnow.com/vehicles/fleets/Pages/information.aspx">natural gas</a> as an alternative fuel for fleet vehicles and buses. However, our <a href="http://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=74960">previous research</a> showed that natural gas does not provide significant emissions savings compared with gasoline cars or diesel buses. </p>
<p>Electric vehicles, however, can bring about clear-cut reductions in carbon emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173470/original/file-20170612-10193-dgxxt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even buses can run on electricity now.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-vehicle-bus-stands-charger-alternative-561339979?src=4ErBCtzcSwCrakP0hkJQBQ-1-3">www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The electric vehicle market</h2>
<p>U.S. cities own few of the <a href="http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/03/electric-cars-usa/">540,000 electric cars</a> on the road nationwide as of 2016. The nation’s two largest cities, <a href="http://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/245-17/onenyc-mayor-city-electric-vehicle-fleet-ahead-schedule-half-way-toward-goal">New York City</a> and <a href="https://www.lamayor.org/mayor-garcetti-announces-city-los-angeles-now-home-largest-electric-vehicle-fleet-us">Los Angeles</a>, operate 1,000 and 200 electric cars, respectively.</p>
<p>That could soon change. Thirty cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston, <a href="https://electrek.co/2017/03/15/electric-vehicle-order-114000-vehicles-40-companies-competing/">are seeking bulk-rate deals</a> on electric vehicles. They’ve asked manufacturers to submit bids to supply up to 114,000 electric vehicles, ranging from police cruisers to trash haulers, at a total <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/cities-shop-for-10-billion-of-electric-vehicles-to-defy-trump">cost of roughly US$10 billion</a>.</p>
<p>This surge in electric vehicle sales could make them more affordable not just for cities but for the rest of us too. That’s because emerging technologies typically get cheaper as production increases. A study by researchers from the <a href="https://www.sei-international.org">Stockholm Environment Institute</a> estimates that electric car batteries prices fall by 6 percent to 9 percent <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html?source=TruthAndBeauty">every time production doubles</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://about.bnef.com">analysts</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/electric-cars-seen-cheaper-than-gasoline-models-within-a-decade">forecast</a> that as soon as 2025, electric cars will become cheaper than gasoline-powered cars. In some cases, they are already cheaper to own and operate over the vehicle’s lifetime, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.04.039">our research</a> has shown. If cities help ramp up demand for electric cars faster than anticipated, this transition could happen even faster.</p>
<h2>Municipal fleets</h2>
<p>City-owned fleets are in some ways ideal candidates for electric-powered transportation. Cities operate large numbers of vehicles in densely populated areas, where emissions most endanger <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/vehicles-air-pollution-and-human-health#.WThw8caZPow">human health</a>. </p>
<p>Local driving by municipal employees is well-suited for electric cars. For example, the Nissan Leaf now has a range of as much as <a href="https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/">107 miles</a>, and the Chevy Bolt can travel <a href="http://www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle-2">238 miles</a> without recharging.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, electric models of pickup trucks, dump trucks, buses and police cruisers are becoming <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/02/garbage-trucks-buses-time-start-talking-big-electric-vehicles/">increasingly available</a>.</p>
<h2>Houston’s vehicles</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.04.039">We studied</a> vehicle options available to Houston, which <a href="http://www.houstontx.gov/fleet/">operates a fleet</a> of about 12,000 vehicles, in 2015. Those options included two gasoline-powered Toyota sedans (the Corolla and the Prius), the natural gas-powered Honda Civic, the plug-in hybrid Toyota Prius and the fully electric Nissan Leaf. Since all these sedans seat five passengers, they are interchangeable. </p>
<p>Because Houston in 2015 bought 75 percent of its electricity from wind farms (it now draws <a href="https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-top-30-local-government">even more of its power from wind and solar</a> sources), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.04.039">we calculated</a> that the fully electric Leaf would have reduced life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 87 percent relative to the gasoline-powered Corolla over seven years. About half of those benefits would have been lost if the Leaf was charged from the fossil-heavy grid <a href="https://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei20/session3/adiem.pdf">elsewhere in Texas</a>. </p>
<p>Financially, the savings on fuel and maintenance would have more than offset the $12,000 premium for buying a Leaf instead of a Corolla. We estimated that Houston would have saved about 4 cents per mile while operating the Leafs, as long as enough charging stations were available. That’s even before counting any savings from bulk purchases or <a href="https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d">federal tax credits</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173471/original/file-20170612-32034-1kdzp1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sacramento Municipal Utility District operates its own charging stations, making it easier for drivers to choose electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Fuel-Fight/afb5979c3cb14549b3ce379d60c1c3c4/1/0">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Charging stations</h2>
<p>One significant problem holding back demand for electric vehicles is the shortage of charging stations. Greater availability of charging stations assures cities and consumers that full electrics like the Nissan Leaf can complete their trips, and lets plug-in hybrids like the Chevy Volt operate mostly in electric mode. </p>
<p>That’s why <a href="http://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2017/05/01/City-s-permits-bureau-will-add-electric-vehicles-to-fleet-by-end-of-year/stories/201705010015">cities like Pittsburgh</a> have obtained state grants to build their own, while <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/seattle-city-light-sets-its-sights-on-electric-vehicles-for-2017/">utilities in Seattle</a> and <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/02/14/514517425/in-americas-heartland-a-power-company-leads-charge-for-electric-cars">Kansas City</a> are building charging stations to jump-start demand for electric cars. </p>
<p>Electric municipal fleets won’t by themselves propel cities all the way to their Paris-based pledges. But by speeding the adoption of charging stations and cleaner cars, they could help curb emissions – while saving money for urban taxpayers and improving public health.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78796/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Cohan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than 200 mayors have committed their cities to stick with the Paris climate deal no matter what the US does. Electric vehicles offer a promising route to making good on that pledge.Daniel Cohan, Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.