tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/hurricane-sandy-4160/articlesHurricane Sandy – The Conversation2020-07-21T04:44:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1428162020-07-21T04:44:56Z2020-07-21T04:44:56ZArt for trying times: reading Richard Ford on a world undone by calamity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348275/original/file-20200720-29-18zairb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C14%2C3167%2C2087&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A rollercoaster washed up on a Jersey beach after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom Mihalek/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In this time of pandemic, our authors nominate a work they turn to for solace or perspective.</em></p>
<p>I’m one of those fortunate people for whom the direct experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has thus far been felt only through isolation from close friends and family and away from the pleasant routines of campus. Indirectly, however, it has been felt as a deep ultimatum from the earth about the interactions of its inhabitants. </p>
<p>Books are both solace and provocation at such a time. Reading Rachel Cusk’s latest collection, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41940257-coventry?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=AkP8MMF2S5&rank=2">Coventry</a>, prompted me to read her entire oeuvre in sequence, as I also did as I reread Richard Ford, and as I will now pursue with Patrick Modiano. </p>
<p>Why this urge to read a writer’s corpus in strict order? Was this my subconscious desire to restore order to a disordered world? Or just the depressing signs of a tidy mind? A linear imagination? Whatever the case, it has been satisfying. </p>
<p>Ford’s prize-winning trilogy of Frank Bascombe novels – The Sportswriter (1986), Independence Day (1995) and The Lay of the Land (2006) – are a landmark in recent American literature, but it is his follow-up <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/20828358-let-me-be-frank-with-you?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=MJWD3b1Ezi&rank=1">Let Me Be Frank With You</a> (2014) that I have most relished returning to. The four interwoven “long stories” (Ford’s term) are his poignant, often hilarious, reckoning with environmental catastrophe and mortality.</p>
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<p>Frank is now 68 and retired eight years from the real estate business he had run along the New Jersey Shore. He has moved inland to comfortable, white, “asininely Tea Party” Haddam with second wife Sally Caldwell. He travels to Newark weekly to greet “weary, puzzled” troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, and reads to the blind on his local radio station. His current choice for them is V.S. Naipaul’s <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/5857.The_Enigma_of_Arrival?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=LBJQ69Upi0&rank=4">The Enigma of Arrival</a>: “they’re pissed off about the same things he’s pissed off about”.</p>
<p>Frank is dealing with his ageing body: he is recovering from prostate cancer and Sally keeps telling him to lift up his feet when he walks to avoid “the gramps shuffle”. Frank now listens to Aaron Copland and is trying to read The Tibetan Book of Living and Dying.</p>
<p>Frank deals routinely, if mostly affectionately, in ethnic and racist labels. He still calls black Americans “Negroes” but plainly prefers them to others of his compatriots: “It’s no wonder they hate us, I’d hate us, too”. Frank is a Democrat; he’s gratified that Obama likes Copland’s Fanfare. </p>
<p>The four interwoven stories unfold across the fortnight before Christmas 2012 in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which had hit the Jersey Shore on 29 October, shattering coastal buildings and killing scores of locals. </p>
<p>The presidential election has just been held: an Obama-Biden sign has been repurposed to read “WE’RE BACK. SO FUCK YOU, SANDY”. Other signs along the Shore warn “LOOTERS BEWARE!”. One, notes Frank, “merely says NOTHING BESIDES REMAINS (for victims with a liberal arts degree)”. His own former house on the shore has disintegrated.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348273/original/file-20200720-33-f3xphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A home destroyed in Mantoloking, New Jersey, by Hurricane Sandy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Jackson/Reuters</span></span>
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<p>Frank is awe-struck: “There’s something to be said for a good no-nonsense hurricane, to bully life back into perspective” but admits his fear that “something bad is closing in – like the advance of a shadow across a square of playground grass where I happen to be standing”.</p>
<p>The people of the Jersey Shore have various explanations for the hurricane: his ex-wife believes it was a “bedrock agent”, others think it was somehow Obama’s doing to prevent people voting for Mitt Romney. No-one refers to climate change.</p>
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<span class="caption">Richard Ford pictured in 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laura Wilson/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Richard Ford interprets and survives a world undone by calamity and death through the encounters Frank has with four individuals: a former client to whom Frank had sold his own house eight years earlier; a reserved, sad and gracious black woman who visits Frank’s new house where 40 years earlier her father had killed her mother, brother and himself; his ex-wife Ann, who has Parkinson’s and has moved to an aged-care facility “determined to rebrand ageing as a to-be-looked forward-to phenomenon”; and an old friend Eddie.</p>
<p>This novel is Ford at his finest. Sharp satire is captured in barbed turns of phrase. Unforgettable, somehow rootless, characters stud the stories. Ford combines the meticulous attention to domestic detail of contemporaries Philip Roth and John Updike with the “dirty realism” of Raymond Carver. His precise, gritty tone is perfect – and strangely consoling.</p>
<p>Ford’s ultimate consolation offered to us is expressed through a brief final encounter, an epiphany of decency through environmental calamity and personal despair. After all, “love isn’t a thing”, he notes, “but an endless series of single acts”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142816/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter McPhee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Books are both solace and provocation during a pandemic. This novel set during Hurricane Sandy is a poignant, often hilarious, reckoning with catastrophe and mortality.Peter McPhee, Emeritus professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1233362019-12-01T13:37:10Z2019-12-01T13:37:10ZStudents become school boiler-room sleuths to assess climate change risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303361/original/file-20191125-74588-fkyukh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Students involved with the Resilient Schools Consortium in New York City quickly grasped the need for climate resiliency in their school buildings. Students from Mark Twain Intermediate School are seen here in October 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Heather Sioux)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the fall of 2012, New York City received the brunt of an unprecedented storm. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, also referred to as Superstorm Sandy, the stock market closed for two days. Some of the city’s subway tunnels, including six under the East River, flooded and were <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/downloads/pdf/final_report/Ch_1_SandyImpacts_FINAL_singles.pdf">out of service</a> for several days. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/ny/2013/04/29/sandy-and-new-york-citys-public-schools-an-annotated-history/">New York City public schools</a> closed down. A week after the storm, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurricane-sandy-school-days_b_2360754">86 schools remained closed and 24 were so badly damaged that they were ultimately relocated</a>. </p>
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<span class="caption">Joseph Leader, New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority vice president and chief maintenance officer, shines a flashlight on standing water inside the South Ferry 1 train station in New York in the wake of Superstorm Sandy, Oct. 31, 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)</span></span>
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<p>Sandy left an impact and raised awareness that the city was indeed vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather and climate change.</p>
<p>In the aftermath, funding from the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a> allowed <a href="http://www.brooklyn.cuny.edu/web/home.php">Brooklyn College of the City University of New York</a>, the <a href="https://blog.nwf.org/2017/10/risc-the-resilient-schools-consortium-nwf-and-brooklyn-college-partner-with-nyc-schools-to-educate-hundreds-of-students-about-climate-change-and-resilience/">National Wildlife Federation</a>, the <a href="https://www.srijb.org/">Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay</a> and <a href="https://seagrant.sunysb.edu/">New York Sea Grant</a> to create the <a href="https://www.riscnyc.org/partner-schools">Resilient Schools Consortium (RiSC)</a>. </p>
<p>This in-school and after-school education program teaches students in Grades 6 to 12 about climate change, resiliency and vulnerability. More importantly, it is designed to centre youth voices and to support youth action for their schools, city and wider communities. </p>
<p>Authors Alexandra Gillis and Jennifer Adams served as evaluators, and Brett Branco as the principal investigator for the project. </p>
<h2>Students investigate</h2>
<p>RiSC <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/?Six%20schools%20participated%20in%20the%20first%20iteration%20of%20the%20program,%20three%20of%20which%20had%20previously%20been%20inundated%20by%20Sandy.%20ll=-8228904.717068935%3B4931348.231242768&level=7&CurSLR=6&CurTab=4">uses online tools and interactive lessons</a> to teach students about the changing climate and how to prepare for increased risks and hazards. In 2016, six schools participated in the program, three of which had been affected by Hurricane Sandy. </p>
<p>At one middle school in Brooklyn — the New York City borough just across the East River from Manhattan — the RiSC team did a routine classroom visit that highlights typical RiSC activity.</p>
<p>First, the students learned about how coastal cities are facing climate change. Then, as part of RiSC, students walked around the school building and grounds to assess the school infrastructure and report on damages and identify future weak spots or problem areas. Students were fascinated by visits to the boiler rooms and basements, seeing up close for the first time some of the lasting damage of the storm.</p>
<p>At this particular Brooklyn middle school, students reflected on their experiences. Lots of eager hands jumped up to share ideas for improving the school. One student shared the idea of expanding the maximum capacity of the school during a storm event. Since the students’ school is a <a href="https://maps.nyc.gov/hurricane/#">designated shelter</a> in a key high ground location in Brooklyn, the class conceptualized how to make sure as many people as possible can use the space.</p>
<p>Students went on to make connections between the integrity of the school’s roof, the water quality in the building, the location of the exits and the size of the auditorium — all of which contributed to the school being a viable shelter choice. </p>
<p>The class continued with a collective brainstorm on how to improve the safety of the school. They asked for information about how to make maps and who they should talk to about buying a water purification system.</p>
<p>One of the standout observations of this program is that students quickly agreed that there was a need for climate resiliency in their school buildings and responded: “What can we do right now?”</p>
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<span class="caption">Ariana Baksh, a student at Middle School 88 in Brooklyn, displays her redesign of the school perimeter to make it more resilient to climate change and extreme weather.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Heather Sioux)</span></span>
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<h2>Reducing eco-anxiety</h2>
<p>There has been a surge in the youth climate movement. Young people are making it clear that they don’t want <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2019-09-22/un-climate-summit-youth-activists-disappointed">anyone to pay lip service to climate change</a> — they want action. Both common sense and research backs up why this generation seems to be at the end of their rope.</p>
<p>Factors that predict <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0013916510385082">student interest in environmentally friendly practices</a> (like picking up trash, recycling and finding a job that helps the environment) include a perception of self-confidence and a sense of oneness with a community. </p>
<p>Youth climate movements like these suggest young people understand they’ll be the ones who will have to manage impending climate disaster.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-activists-are-boosting-the-climate-movement-so-why-all-the-flak-124220">Young activists are boosting the climate movement, so why all the flak?</a>
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<p>Youth <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-activists-are-boosting-the-climate-movement-so-why-all-the-flak-124220">know they’re not responsible for the political decisions that have harmed the planet, but must make their voices heard</a> in order to have brighter futures. </p>
<p>The American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica released a <a href="https://ecoamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/eA_Beyond_Storms_and_Droughts_Psych_Impacts_of_Climate_Change.pdf">report outlining the mental health impacts of climate change</a> and guidance for scientific communicators. Their first recommendation was to “give people confidence that they can prepare for and mitigate climate change” — in other words, focus on action. </p>
<p>Schools, communities and people, <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203866399/chapters/10.4324/9780203866399-12">especially those who are the most marginalized</a>, need to feel empowered to respond and adapt to climate events and climate change. </p>
<h2>Listening to students’ voices</h2>
<p>When students are given the opportunity to present their ideas, talk to their community and design and implement resiliency projects, they feel like they are able to make changes. One student shared: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I told my friends and family that the RiSC program can make a great impact on the city’s actions and even the country.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the end of the school year, RiSC students presented their findings, recommendations and projects to local climate and resilience professionals at a Youth Climate Summit in Brooklyn.</p>
<p>This was a positive experience for many students. One noted:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I like to talk to professional(s) and share my ideas. I get to communicate and find ways and other ideas from others to solve these problems.” </p>
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<p>These types of experiences allow students to feel part of a larger collective of problem-solvers. </p>
<p>The adults also benefited from hearing from the students. One Federal Emergency Management Agency official said the youth’s work is “just so encouraging and just gives me optimism and hope for the future.”</p>
<p>When youth are empowered to generate solutions to climate change, it allows them to imagine positive alternative futures. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123336/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer D. Adams receives funding from National Science Foundation-US and NOAA </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandra Gillis receives funding from NOAA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Branco receives funding from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US National Science Foundation (NSF). </span></em></p>After Hurricane Sandy, educators in New York City partnered with environmental and governmental organizations to put youth at the centre of preparing for risks and hazards in their school buildings.Jennifer D. Adams, Canada Research Chair of Creativity and STEM and Associate Professor, University of CalgaryAlexandra Gillis, Graduate Teaching Assistant, Earth and Environmental Sciences department, Brooklyn CollegeBrett Branco, Executive Director of the Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay, hosted by Brooklyn College, and Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Brooklyn CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1139712019-03-22T16:39:23Z2019-03-22T16:39:23ZCyclone Idai: rich countries are to blame for disasters like this – here’s how they can make amends<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/tropical-cyclone-idai-the-storm-that-knew-no-boundaries-113931">tropical cyclone</a> rampaging south-eastern Africa has been described as one of the worst disasters ever to strike the southern hemisphere, with up to 2.6m people potentially affected in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. The death toll may not be known for months, but it is already likely to have run to hundreds and possibly thousands of people. The brunt of the disaster has been borne by the coastal city of Beira in central Mozambique, 90% of which has been <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/mozambique-city-beira-90-damaged-or-destroyed-cyclone">reportedly</a> destroyed. </p>
<p>It is inevitable that people will connect Idai and climate change. It is always tricky to establish a direct causal link, but thanks to the evidence provided by a number of reports from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-ipcc-anyway-and-how-does-it-work-18164">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC), including <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">this most recent one</a> from October 2018, we know that climate change is bound to increase the intensity and frequency of storms like Idai. At the very least, this crisis is a harbinger of what is coming.</p>
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<p>Knowing this is a luxury that we must not squander. The IPCC estimates we have 12 years to prevent the Earth’s climate from crossing the 1.5°C warming threshold, beyond which the effects are likely to become significantly worse. We should be spending this time both trying to minimise the increase in global temperatures and making people more prepared for similar events in future. The West has a duty to shoulder most of the burden here, for reasons we’ll explain in a moment. To do so, it needs to rethink its entire approach to international development. </p>
<h2>The reality of disasters</h2>
<p>Over the next few weeks, we may hear that Beira’s geography makes it particularly prone to natural disasters. We may hear that the region lacks an efficient early-warning system to alert its population. We may even hear some victim-blaming rhetoric that local people refused to leave despite being warned. Arguments like these all obscure a much more important explanation for what has happened. </p>
<p>It is not only the intensity of environmental disasters that makes them devastating – poverty also has a huge bearing on how things play out. Houses in poorer areas will often be less stable, storm barriers may be weaker, sanitation is often a problem, emergency services will be poorly resourced – and preventing disease outbreaks may be hindered by the poor state of public health services. The list of disadvantages goes on and on.</p>
<p>Good example are hurricanes <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/23/us/hurricane-katrina-statistics-fast-facts/index.html">Katrina</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/13/world/americas/hurricane-sandy-fast-facts/index.html">Sandy</a> in the US. Katrina struck New Orleans and the surrounding region in 2005 while Sandy hit New York and New Jersey in 2012. Sandy hit a far more densely populated area, but the death toll was at least five times lower than Katrina and it only caused about half the damage. </p>
<p>While Sandy was a category three storm to Katrina’s five, this was certainly not the only reason for the disparity. <a href="https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hurricane-katrina-10-years-why-was-it-so-destructive-1515841">New Orleans</a>, one of the poorest cities in the US, had poorly constructed levees which were easily overcome by the flood. Many people did not have cars, so couldn’t evacuate easily when the authorities told them to. </p>
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<p>The earthquakes that struck <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Haiti-earthquake-of-2010">Haiti</a> and <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/16/national/more-powerful-magnitude-7-3-quake-rocks-kumamoto-kills-dozens-more/">Japan</a> in 2010 and 2016 respectively are another example. Both were of similar magnitude, but between 100,000 and 316,000 died in Haiti while in Japan it was just 42. One reason the Haitian disaster was <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/why-haiti-s-quake-was-so-devastating-1.907001">so much worse</a> was the many thousands of unstable shanty houses in Port-au-Prince. </p>
<p>Inequalities within countries matter as well. The most vulnerable people are usually women, children, the poor, the elderly, ethnic minorities or indigenous people. Hurricane Katrina hit the elderly poor of New Orleans <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26444326/ns/us_news-life/t/half-katrina-victims-were-or-older/">disproportionately hard</a>, for instance, since they found it hardest to escape. </p>
<h2>Where responsibility lies</h2>
<p>In all this inequality, the world’s wealthiest countries are heavily culpable. It stems from a complex economic system that disadvantages the Global South – not to mention the centuries-long experience of colonialism, the effects of which have hampered human development until this day. </p>
<p>In a world where <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/21/world-26-richest-people-own-as-much-as-poorest-50-per-cent-oxfam-report">26 billionaires own</a> as much wealth as the bottom half of humanity, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-africa-must-brace-itself-for-more-tropical-cyclones-in-future-103641">prospect</a> of more frequent and intense climate disasters is only bound to exacerbate those inequalities. At the same time, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe contribute only a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">small fraction</a> of the emissions that are causing such disasters. The West’s responsibility – along with other
big emitters such as China – is therefore also a matter of climate justice.</p>
<p>Part of that responsibility lies in changing the current approach to disaster aid. In major donor countries such as the US and UK, the guiding modus operandi of disaster relief has been reactive as opposed to proactive measures. The UK <a href="https://devtracker.dfid.gov.uk/sector/18/">spent</a> £1.2 billion in 2018/19 on emergency responses such as humanitarian interventions, while disaster prevention and preparedness has received a mere £76m. In the case of Cyclone Idai, the Department for International Development has now <a href="https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/uk-aid-for-cyclone-idai/61293/">earmarked £18m</a> to assist humanitarian relief efforts in Mozambique and Malawi – tripling the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-provide-up-to-6-million-of-uk-aid-to-support-victims-of-deadly-east-africa-cyclone">original pledge</a> from a couple of days earlier. </p>
<p>To be clear, humanitarian responses are absolutely key, but insufficient on their own. They bandage wounds rather than fix what caused them. Instead, donor countries need to prioritise identifying the most vulnerable people both before and after a disaster, and ensure they receive the required support and are granted the agency to be actively involved in the process. </p>
<p>Besides the high-profile attempts to reduce global emissions, countries such as the UK should be offering support to poorer countries with everything from building flood defences to supporting social services to transferring technology. They should be forgiving national debt, redistributing wealth or at least giving them preferential trade deals to help them adapt to climate change themselves. This requires a rethinking not just of humanitarian aid but of development assistance in general. </p>
<p>Fortunately this is not just blue skies thinking on our parts. The House of Commons International Development Committee is currently reviewing the aid budget and <a href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/international-development-committee/uk-aid-for-combating-climate-change/written/97790.pdf">considering</a> an approach built around climate justice. This emerging discipline is gaining traction and credibility around the world and will be the subject of a <a href="https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/world-forum-on-climate-justice">World Forum taking place</a> in Glasgow in June. Ahead of that, Tahseen Jafry – one of the co-authors of this article – will be making a <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/climate-change-health-and-climate-justice-in-the-worlds-cities-tickets-56113752745">keynote presentation</a> in New York in April. </p>
<p>In short, it feels like momentum is steadily building. The UK caused a disproportionately large part of climate change. Now it ought to show leadership by pioneering a new approach to development that has inequality at the top of the agenda. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1113971">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Mikulewicz receives funding from The Carnegie Trust through the Universities of Scotland Research Incentive Grant for another research project not directly connected to the subject matter discussed in this article.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tahseen Jafry receives funding from the Scottish government. </span></em></p>From New Orleans to Haiti to Mozambique, global inequality plays a major role in making disasters deadly.Michael Mikulewicz, Research Fellow, Centre for Climate Justice, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityTahseen Jafry, Professor of Climate Justice, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1132462019-03-20T23:14:53Z2019-03-20T23:14:53ZHurricanes to deliver a bigger punch to coasts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264915/original/file-20190320-93063-1fvolzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood waters cover large tracts of land in Mozambique after cyclone Idai made landfall. Rapidly rising floodwaters have cut off thousands of families from aid organizations. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(World Food Programme via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When tropical cyclone Idai made landfall near Beira, Mozambique on March 14, a spokesperson for the UN World Meteorological Organization called it possibly the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/19/cyclone-idai-worst-weather-disaster-to-hit-southern-hemisphere-mozambique-malawi">the worst weather-related disaster to hit the southern hemisphere</a>. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/tropical-cyclone-idai-hits-mozambique">massive and horrifying</a> storm caused catastrophic flooding and widespread destruction of buildings and roads in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi. Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi feared the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47609676">death toll might rise to more than 1,000</a> people.</p>
<p>Cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons, are intense wind storms that can take thousands of lives and cause billions of dollars in damage. They generate <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JC011706">large ocean waves</a> and raise water levels by creating a <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.1061/%28ASCE%29WW.1943-5460.0000260">storm surge</a>. The combined effects cause coastal erosion, flooding and damage to anything in its path.</p>
<p>Although other storms have hit this African coast in the past, the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/tropical-cyclone-idai-mozambique-channel">storm track for cyclone Idai is fairly rare</a>. Warmer-than-usual sea-surface temperatures were directly linked to the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00703-006-0251-2">unusually high number of five storms</a> near Madagascar and Mozambique in 2000, including <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0434%282004%29019%3C0789%3ATCEAIU%3E2.0.CO%3B2">tropical cyclone Eline</a>. Warmer ocean temperatures could also be behind the intensity of cyclone Idai, as the <a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html">temperature of the Indian Ocean is 2 C to 3 C above</a> the long-term average.</p>
<p><a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.3932">Climate change and ocean warming</a> may be linked to the increasing intensity of storms making landfall and to the development of strong hurricanes reaching places not affected in recent history. These regions may not be prepared with the coastal infrastructure to withstand the extreme forces of these storms. </p>
<h2>The role of climate change</h2>
<p>Scientists are working to improve their forecasts for <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">hurricane winds</a> and <a href="https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/">waves</a>, and research on <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1">ocean and atmosphere interactions</a> is boosting our understanding of the relationship between climate and the formation of hurricanes. Still, there is considerable uncertainty in predicting trends in extreme weather conditions 100 years into the future. Some computer simulations suggest possible changes in these storms due to climate change.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264686/original/file-20190319-60959-13dd1nm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tropical cyclone Idai rapidly strengthened to a category 3 storm in the warm waters between Mozambique and Madagascar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(NOAA)</span></span>
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<p>For example, scientists have computed detailed simulations of hurricane-type storms for future climate-warming scenarios and revealed that in some cases the <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00686.1">hurricane season could be longer</a>. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo779">intensity of storms could also increase</a> so that there are more major hurricanes (categories 4 and 5 on the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php">Saffir-Simpson scale</a>) with winds reaching speeds greater than 209 km/h. </p>
<p>Since these storms are fuelled by ocean heat, warmer ocean conditions will influence their intensity and longevity. This may enable them to travel farther over ocean water at higher latitudes, and farther across the continent after they make landfall. </p>
<p>With global sea level rise expected to continue to accelerate through the 21st century, the impacts of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12855">coastal flooding from tropical cyclones</a> is also expected to worsen.</p>
<h2>Atlantic hurricanes</h2>
<p>On the Atlantic coast of North America, the hurricane season starts in June and runs to November. We have very recent reminders that these storms can be catastrophic. <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8604824">Hurricane Maria</a>, which struck Puerto Rico in 2017, caused infrastructure <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/hurricane-costs.html">damage of US$90 billion</a> and may have <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972">killed more than 4,600 people</a>. </p>
<p>Urban areas can take weeks or months to recover from the flooding caused by the storm surge, which can be compounded by heavy rainfall. When the category 4 <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0676-z">hurricane Harvey</a> hit Houston in 2017, it caused <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/hurricane-costs.html">US$125 billion</a> in damage, mostly due to flooding in the metropolitan area. </p>
<p>Hurricanes that reach places that historically have not been affected have major and long-lasting impacts. An example is hurricane Sandy in 2012, the largest storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean. This storm made a westward turn that is <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50395">very different from typical</a> tropical hurricane tracks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264899/original/file-20190320-93028-19n3dej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Homes in Ortley Beach, N.J. destroyed by Superstorm Sandy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mike Groll, File)</span></span>
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<p>Its waves and storm surge <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383917302090">pounded the coasts of New Jersey and New York</a>, with a huge impact <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434318300396">washing over coastal dunes</a>, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071991">eroding beaches</a> and causing <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016WR019102">flooding in New York City</a>. </p>
<p>It also had a major economic impact, costing <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/hurricane-costs.html">US$71 billion</a> with long-term effects on the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X17303136">coastal environment</a> and lasting <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/longterm-recovery-from-hurricane-sandy-evidence-from-a-survey-in-new-york-city/D8F5511E84DF1C7ACFBC3D649388F81A">socioeconomic</a> impacts in a densely populated area.</p>
<h2>Damage to coasts</h2>
<p>Hurricanes can cause severe erosion and breach islands, creating new pathways for water flow between the ocean and back-barrier estuaries. As these storms impact land, they can also create a <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane">dangerous multi-hazard environment</a> of fast-moving air, water and debris. </p>
<p>Urban coastal areas are under a major threat, since coastal structures may not have been designed for the waves and surges that these storms generate. Hurricane Katrina, the mega-disaster that took more than <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/dcmi.shtml">1,200 lives</a> and cost <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/hurricane-costs.html">US$161 billion</a> in 2005,
taught engineers the hard way that <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.1061/%28ASCE%290733-950X%282007%29133%3A6%28463%29">hurricanes can cause unanticipated loads</a> on bridges, buildings and coastal structures.</p>
<p>The amount of damage a hurricane creates depends on the intensity and characteristics of the storm, combined with the physical and social setting of the coastal area that it hits. Cities face a high risk of hurricane-related disasters, since they contain higher populations and more infrastructure. This can lead to widespread and catastrophic impacts, such as the massive storm surge and flooding generated by <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL060689">typhoon Haiyan</a>, which lead to <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00245.1">more than 6,000 deaths</a> in the Philippines in 2013. </p>
<h2>Future Impacts</h2>
<p>Regardless of changes to the climatic conditions that cause hurricanes to form and intensify, the fact is that these storms already occur frequently. Each year, <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844/tab-pdf">80 to 100 tropical storms occur globally. Of these, 40 to 50 are hurricanes, with 10 to 15 classified as major hurricanes</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264902/original/file-20190320-93060-1kgsws5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Isabel made landfall on North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Sept. 18, 2003. Its effects were felt as far as western New England and into the eastern Great Lakes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Climate change projections suggest the <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/327/5964/454">number of intense hurricanes will rise</a>. Ocean warming will enable these storms to travel farther, and we may see greater hurricane impacts on coasts in the future. </p>
<p>This could include more storm strikes to northern coasts in places like Atlantic Canada, where <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007JC004500">hurricane Juan made landfall</a> in 2003.</p>
<p>We may also see more hurricanes reaching large inland lakes such as the Great Lakes, affecting major cities like Toronto and Chicago. Rare events, such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718305874">hurricane Ophelia that hit Ireland</a> in 2017, may become more common. </p>
<p>When we build houses, roads and bridges and increase population density in low-lying coastal areas, we walk a fine line if these coastal regions are not prepared for the ferocity of extreme storms in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan P. Mulligan receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC).</span></em></p>Climate change is making hurricanes more destructive, and may have boosted the intensity of cyclone Idai that hit Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi.Ryan P. Mulligan, Associate Professor in Civil Engineering, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1019152018-08-23T11:04:34Z2018-08-23T11:04:34ZSocial media’s not all bad – it’s saving lives in disaster zones<p>Social media was recently credited with reducing the number of casualties caused by air strikes in the Syrian civil war. The early warning system, developed by tech startup <a href="https://halasystems.com/">Hala Systems</a>, uses remote sensors to detect aircraft flying over the opposition-held northern province of Idlib. Alerts are then sent via Facebook and instant messaging apps such as WhatsApp to civilians and aid workers in affected areas. These messages give relevant information such as the areas likely to come under heavy bombardment and the duration of these raids.</p>
<p>Since its launch in 2016, the system has reportedly reduced the number of casualties in the region caused by air strikes by <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/17/social-media-warning-system-saving-lives-syria/">as much as 27%</a>. The system also <a href="https://www.forces.net/news/britain-supporting-social-media-air-strike-warning-system">triggers traditional air raid sirens</a> that might actually be more effective than social media in reaching key demographics in affected areas. Nevertheless, this example shows why social media has become big news for emergency managers seeking to provide accurate and timely information to people affected by disasters.</p>
<p>Incidents such as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/28/why-social-media-wouldve-saved-lives-during-hurricane-katrina/?utm_term=.9a6e57a553b9">Hurricane Sandy</a> in September 2012 have shown how disaster response teams can leverage the “<a href="https://repository.wellesley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1028&context=scholarship">power of collective intelligence</a>” given by social media. Members of the public use these platforms to share critical information that helps build a bigger picture of the situation. They also play a key role in correcting misinformation and dispelling rumours that have the potential to hinder efforts to restore critical services in affected areas.</p>
<p>Twitter hashtags in particular function as <a href="https://scholars.opb.msu.edu/en/publications/contextualizing-experiences-tracing-the-relationships-between-peo-3">“fire spaces”</a>, transforming data generated by citizens into information that helps first responders allocate resources to the people who need them most. Emergency managers frequently use information-gathering platforms such as <a href="https://www.ushahidi.com/">Ushahidi</a> and <a href="http://www.wis.ewi.tudelft.nl/twitcident/">Twitcident</a> to help them sift through the large volume of data available on these sites at each stage of the incident.</p>
<p>They have also mobilised “digital volunteers” who offer their time without having to leave home to assist with this task. Groups such as the <a href="https://thinkdisaster.com/2012/02/13/vost-virtual-operations-support-team/">Virtual Operations Support Teams</a> and the <a href="http://digitalhumanitarians.com/about">Digital Humanitarian Network</a> helped analyse the social media data generated during natural disasters such as <a href="http://digitalhumanitarians.com/news/activation-hurricane-harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a>, as well as terrorist incidents such as the November 2015 Paris terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>Social media can also be used by citizens to provide emotional and material support to those living in disaster-affected areas. Our research projects <a href="http://casceff.eu/media2/2016/05/D3.3-Communication-strategy.pdf">CascEff</a> and <a href="http://improverproject.eu/2017/06/14/deliverable-4-2-a-communication-strategy-to-build-critical-infrastructure-resilience/">IMPROVER</a> found several examples of such citizen-led social media campaigns. These included <a href="https://www.frankwatching.com/archive/2011/08/19/hoe-het-pukkelpop-drama-de-echte-kracht-toont-van-sociale-media/">#hasselthelp</a>, which provided shelter to those festival goers who had fled the 2011 <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14586001">Pukkelpop festival disaster</a>. And <a href="http://time.com/4112428/paris-shootings-porte-ouverte/">#PorteOuverte</a>, which fulfilled the same function for those caught up in the Paris terrorist attacks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leighton Walter Killé/TCF, CC BY-ND.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These hashtags appeared to empower local communities to join in disaster response, theoretically increasing their resilience towards such incidents in the future. Yet social media users typically disengaged from these online groups once their questions about the incident had been answered. And we found that they didn’t necessarily show a stronger commitment to responding to the disasters. What’s more, emergency management organisations are likely to remain the most influential and reputable sources of crisis information for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>The problem with relying on digital media for disaster response is that <a href="https://www.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/themes/ict/bridgingthedigitaldivide.htm">not everyone has access</a> to it. Many people are still sceptical about the trustworthiness and reliability of information posted online. Research shows that members of the public are still more likely to perceive traditional media such as newspapers, radio and television <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-014-1512-x%22">as more credible</a> than social media.</p>
<h2>Mixing old and new</h2>
<p>Because there’s always a risk of mobile networks also going down, any communication strategy has to involve a mix of traditional and digital media. Our research found that radio was still seen as <a href="http://library.college.police.uk/docs/role-of-media-crisis-situations-2017.pdf">the most resilient communication</a> channel that could help reach large numbers of people when power supplies were disrupted.</p>
<p><a href="http://casceff.eu/media2/2016/05/D3.3-Communication-strategy.pdf">Our work</a> <a href="http://improverproject.eu/2017/06/14/deliverable-4-2-a-communication-strategy-to-build-critical-infrastructure-resilience/">also suggests</a> there aren’t any ways social media is used that make it indispensable to emergency managers. Instead, they need to assess how people are behaving and the information they need to work out the best way to communicate in any scenario, including by learning lessons from previous disasters.</p>
<p>Overly optimistic views of social media as a panacea for the problems in crisis communication often ignore the importance of a mix of traditional and digital tools. Perhaps that’s why the Syrian air strike warning system, which sounded conventional alarms based on data gathered by social media, has proved so successful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Reilly received funding from EC-FP7 and Horizon 2020 for this work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ioanna Tantanasi received funding from EC-FP7 and Horizon 2020 for this work.</span></em></p>Warning Syrians of approaching airstrikes via social media is helping save lives.Paul Reilly, Senior Lecturer in Social Media and Digital Society, University of SheffieldIoanna Tantanasi, Research Associate, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/934532018-04-06T10:46:02Z2018-04-06T10:46:02ZWhy weather forecasters still struggle to get the big storms right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212811/original/file-20180402-189798-1utbaji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Snow on the ground after a winter storm. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-sees-major-winter-storm-headed-for-eastern-us">NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was March 2017, and a winter storm named Stella promised to deliver up to a foot and a half of snow to New York City and parts of New Jersey. Officials pushed out blizzard warnings, suggesting the city was under imminent snowy siege.</p>
<p>But only 7 inches fell. <a href="https://www.northjersey.com/story/weather/2017/03/14/watch-live-gov-christie-gives-storm-briefing/99170204/">Then-Gov. Chris Christie blasted forecasters</a>. “I don’t know how much we should be paying these weather guys,” he said. “I’ve had my fill of the National Weather Service after seven and a half years.”</p>
<p>For anyone following the weather, forecasts for big storms are sometimes still roller-coaster rides – with sudden shifts in track or intensity. As a meteorologist who forecasts for a large urban market, I can attest to the frustration. Why can’t we get it right every time, given this era of 24/7 weather data, dozens of satellite and sophisticated computer models? The answer lies in the quirks between the most popular forecasting models.</p>
<h2>Battle of the models</h2>
<p>Computer forecast models have become the mainstay of weather prediction across North America and many other parts of the world. Run on fast supercomputers, these sophisticated mathematical models of the atmosphere have gotten better over the past couple decades. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/todays-weather-forecast-good-strong-chance-improvement">Human forecast skill has improved</a> by approximately one day per decade. In other words, today’s four-day forecast is as accurate as a three-day forecast was a decade ago. </p>
<p>Forecasters in the U.S. routinely examine several models, but the two most discussed ones are the American and the European. When the models disagree on the track of a big storm, forecasters must often choose which they believe is most correct. This decision can make or break a critical forecast.</p>
<p>Most meteorologists agree that the European model is the most skillful. This was cemented in March 1993, when it correctly forecast the track and intensity of a historical Nor'easter. Called the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076%3C0165:OOTMS%3E2.0.CO;2">“Storm of the Century,”</a> the storm dropped a blanket of heavy snow from the Gulf Coast to the northern tip of Maine. </p>
<p>The storm was a milestone for what is termed medium-range forecasting, or forecasts made three to seven days out. The European model nailed the prediction <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125%3C3041:TMSCIP%3E2.0.CO;2">five days in advance</a>. That meant officials could declare states of emergency before the first flakes ever flew. </p>
<p>Fast forward to 2012, and the Euro was still making correct calls on big, dramatic storms. But this time, the lead time went beyond eight days. The storm was Hurricane Sandy, a massive Atlantic storm. More than a week in advance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059839">the European model predicted</a> an oddball westward jog in Sandy’s track, whereas the American model arced it eastward and harmlessly away from the East Coast. Score: another major victory for the European. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213436/original/file-20180405-189827-1lv6wle.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forecasts before Hurricane Sandy disagreed on the storm’s track.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Hurricane Center</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>European versus American</h2>
<p>Why does the European do so well, compared to its American counterpart? </p>
<p>For one, it’s run on a more powerful supercomputer. Two, it has <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support">a more sophisticated mathematical system</a> to handle the “initial conditions” of the atmosphere. And three, it’s been developed and refined at an institute whose singular focus is on medium-range weather prediction. </p>
<p>In the U.S., the medium-range American model is part of a suite of several models, including several short-range prediction systems that run as frequently as every hour. The time, intellectual focus and costs are shared among as many as four or five different types of models.</p>
<p>The public has heard about the European model’s victories. But forecasters also know that the American model is quite skillful; it’s had its share of wins, albeit less high-profile. One of these was Winter Storm Juno, a 2015 Nor'easter that severely impacted the New England coast. Forecasters put out a dire warning for 24 to 36 inches of snow across all of New York City. In an unprecedented move, Governor Andrew Cuomo shut down the subway system in advance, a move never done for an impending snowstorm. </p>
<p>This doomsday snow forecast was based on the European model. The American model predicted that the storm would be displaced about 50 miles further eastward – shifting the big thump of snow away from the city proper. In reality, Juno took this eastward track and Central Park ended up with “only” 10 inches – a significant amount if snow, but not a crippling 2 to 3 feet. The unnecessary economic losses from the city’s shutdown were huge, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/27/why-the-snow-forecast-for-new-york-city-was-so-bad-and-what-should-be-done/">putting meteorologists on the defensive</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of winter storm Stella, the American model massively overpredicted snowfall. But a short-range model called the North American Model <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/14/this-is-why-tuesdays-blizzard-was-a-total-dud-in-new-york-city/">correctly predicted a storm track</a> 50 to 100 miles further east.</p>
<h2>Predicting the weather</h2>
<p>It all comes down to this: Weather forecasters have many choices for predictive models. The art of forecasting is based on years of experience spent with each model, learning the unique biases and strengths of each. The National Weather Service and other forecasting outfits have made strides in better communicating forecast uncertainty, given the inherent spread in the models. But it still often comes down to that gut feeling: European or American?</p>
<p>Researchers are taking steps to improve U.S. medium-range weather prediction by doubling the computer speed and tweaking the way the model ingests data. <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/panasonic-weather-forecasting-model">Companies like Panasonic and IBM</a> have entered the arena with their own novel weather prediction models. </p>
<p>In the meantime, while we wait for the American model to “catch up” to the skill of the European, there are a few ways people can learn to decipher the forecast message. Individual model runs are less skillful beyond about five days; what you’re looking for is run-to-run consistency. Also, seek out forecasts that frame the predictive uncertainty. For instance, a forecast may suggest alternate scenarios for an upcoming snowstorm: a 20 percent chance of up to 15 inches, or a 20 percent chance that only 4 to 6 inches will fall. </p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct Andrew Cuomo’s title.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey B. Halverson receives funding from NASA. </span></em></p>Why can’t meteorologists call the weather correctly every time? Blame the battle of the weather models.Jeffrey B. Halverson, Professor of Geography & Environmental Systems, Associate Dean of the Graduate School, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/882032017-12-05T04:06:56Z2017-12-05T04:06:56ZTurning hurricanes into music: Can listening to storms help us understand them better?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197002/original/file-20171129-12069-kj3zgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Maria, September 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hurricane-maria-makes-landfall-puerto-rica-718981030?src=UnFs_IIyu5aiiwbe6g7UHw-1-6">lavizzara/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the 2017 hurricane season, major storms in the North Atlantic devastated communities in and around Houston, Florida, Puerto Rico and the wider Caribbean. </p>
<p>The destruction shows how important it is to understand and communicate the serious threats that these storms pose. Scientists have made great strides in forecasting many aspects of storms, but if the people at risk don’t understand the danger they’re in, then the impact is lost. </p>
<p>We are colleagues from different areas of the Penn State campus: One of us is a professor of meteorology, and the other a professor of music technology. Since 2014, we have been working together to sonify the dynamics of tropical storms. In other words, we turn environmental data into music.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JKqaqndHu04?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Sandy, sonified.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By sonifying <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpr0jreqVbU&feature=youtu.be">satellite videos</a> like those often seen in weather reports,
we hope that people will better understand how these extreme storms evolve. </p>
<h2>Data into sound</h2>
<p>Most of us are familiar with data visualization: charts, graphs, maps and animations that represent complex series of numbers. Sonification is an emerging field that creates graphs with sound. </p>
<p>As a simple example, a sonified graph might consist of a rising and falling melody, instead of a rising and falling line on a page.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59AwYIP6q_E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simple example of sonification.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sonification offers a few benefits over traditional data visualization. One is accessibility: People with visual or cognitive disabilities may be <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/wanda_diaz_merced_how_a_blind_astronomer_found_a_way_to_hear_the_stars">better able to engage with sound-based media</a>.</p>
<p>Sonification is also good for discovery. Our eyes are good at detecting <a href="http://www.ed.gov.nl.ca/edu/k12/curriculum/guides/art/art1201/sectn1.pdf">static properties</a>, like color, size and texture. But our ears are better at sensing <a href="http://deutsch.ucsd.edu/psychology/pages.php?i=601">properties that change and fluctuate</a>. Qualities such as pitch or rhythm may change very subtly, but still be sensed quite easily. The ears are also better than the eyes at following multiple patterns simultaneously, which is what we do when we appreciate the interlocking parts in a complex piece of music.</p>
<p>Sound is also processed <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/the-universal-sense-9781608198849/">more quickly</a> and <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/298964/this-is-your-brain-on-music-by-daniel-j-levitin/9780452288522/">more viscerally</a> than visuals. That’s why we involuntarily tap our feet and sing along to a favorite song. </p>
<h2>Turning storms into songs</h2>
<p>A hurricane lifetime can last anywhere from a day to a few weeks. Agencies such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continuously measure all sorts of features of a storm. </p>
<p>We distilled the changing characteristics of a hurricane into four features measured every six hours: air pressure, latitude, longitude and asymmetry, a measure of the pattern of the winds blowing around the storm’s center.</p>
<p>To create the sonifications, we export these data into the music synthesis program <a href="http://supercollider.github.io/">SuperCollider</a>. Here, numerical values can be scaled and transposed as necessary so that, for example, a storm lasting several days can be played over just a few minutes or seconds. </p>
<p>Each type of data is then treated like a part in a musical score. Data are used to “play” synthesized instruments that have been created to make sounds suggestive of a storm and to blend well together. </p>
<p>In our recordings, air pressure is conveyed by a swirling, windy sound reflecting pressure changes. More intense hurricanes have lower values of air pressure at sea level. The winds near the ground are also stronger in intense storms.</p>
<p>As pressure lowers, the speed of the swirling in our sonic recordings increases, the volume increases and the windy sound becomes brighter.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RiLgaQRXqSs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This demonstration (not based on actual data) gives the sound that would result from pressure values decreasing and then increasing again.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The longitude of the storm center is reflected in stereo pan, the position of a sound source between the left and right speaker channels.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dZt0jbKN-4A?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The demonstration (not based on actual data) plays longitude positions moving from west to east (left to right). (This is best heard over stereo headphones.)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Latitude is reflected in the pitch of the swirling sound, as well as in a higher, pulsing sound. As a storm moves away from the equator toward one of the poles, the pitch drops to reflect the drop in temperatures outside the tropics. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This is a demonstration (not based on actual data) of latitudes tracking away from the equator and then back toward it. Although there are a very few exceptions, storms typically do not move back toward the equator.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A more circular storm is typically more intense. Symmetry values are reflected in the brightness of a low, underlying sound. When the storm has an oblong or oval shape, the sound is brighter. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This demonstration plays values that outline the life cycle of a storm, evolving from an oval shape to becoming more circular, then returning to an oval shape. This progression reflects what would happen when a weak storm forms, becomes stronger, then dies.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Using sound</h2>
<p>So far, we have sonified 11 storms, as well as mapped <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKTLE1rRUDA&feature=youtu.be">global storm activity from the year 2005</a>.</p>
<p>Storm sonifications could potentially benefit those who are tracking storm systems or updating the public about weather activity. Sonifications could be played over the radio, for example. They might also be useful for people who have limited phone bandwidth and are better able to receive audio content than video content.</p>
<p>Even for experts in meteorology, it can be easier to get a sense of interrelated storm dynamics by hearing them as simultaneous musical parts than by relying on graphics alone. For example, while a storm’s shape is typically tied to air pressure, there are times when storms change shape without changing in air pressure. While this difference can be difficult to see in a visual graph, it’s easily heard in the sonified data.</p>
<p>Our goal is to introduce sonifications of all kinds of graphs into science classes, particularly those with younger students. Sonification is becoming an <a href="http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/psychfacpub/444/">acknowledged research method</a>, and <a href="http://sonification.de/handbook/">several studies</a> have proven it effective at communicating complex data. But its uptake has been slow. </p>
<p>Nationwide, scientists, teachers and school administrators are recognizing the importance of <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/stem-solutions/articles/2014/02/13/gaining-steam-teaching-science-though-art">the arts</a>, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/nicholas-ferroni/music-in-the-classroom_b_2072777.html">including sound and music</a>, when teaching science and mathematics. If a generation of students grows up experiencing science through more of their senses – sight, hearing and touch – then they may find the sciences more inviting and less intimidating.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Ballora receives funding from NAKFI (National Academies Keck Futures Initiative). Two seed grants for sonification work do be done in the area of oceanography. Not directly connected with the work described here, </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenni Evans receives funding from the National Science Foundation. She is the president-elect of the American Meteorological Society.</span></em></p>A meteorologist and a music technologist team up to turn the data from tropical storms into musical graphs.Mark Ballora, Professor of Music Technology, Penn StateJenni Evans, Professor of Meteorology, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/860362017-11-15T00:14:35Z2017-11-15T00:14:35ZWhy Puerto Rico is getting the brunt of ‘donor fatigue’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194425/original/file-20171113-27622-1d7mvz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Being one of a series of disasters made relief in Puerto Rico harder to come by after Hurricane Maria. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria-Shelter-Life/94af5b8794744d9cb0b49439c4068957/107/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recovering from disasters is never easy. When disasters pile up, it gets harder.</p>
<p>On top of the inevitable competition for everything from the government’s funding for recovery efforts to construction materials, donations for relief operations dry up as givers develop what’s known as “<a href="http://blog.winspireme.com/16-fundraising-best-practices-for-preventing-donor-fatigue">donor fatigue</a>.” </p>
<p>While studying disaster relief and community resilience, I’ve learned that there are many factors shaping if and how much people give. I’ve also found that those decisions can have important consequences for communities affected by disasters. And when multiple devastating events occur around the same time, the strain on donors and responders takes a big toll.</p>
<h2>Donor fatigue</h2>
<p>When donors have already supported other relief efforts, they may feel that they either can’t or don’t need to give again. </p>
<p>Today, that means many people who supported recovery efforts after Hurricane Harvey or perhaps Hurricane Irma are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/10/04/puerto-rico-donations-lag-behind-fundraising-harvey-irma-victims-vegas-shooting/731955001/">not pitching in</a> to help Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>While the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/about-us/media/press-releases">American Red Cross</a>, a leading relief nonprofit, said it had raised <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/American-Red-Cross-Issues-One-Month-Progress-Report-on-Relief-Response-for-Historic-Hurricane-Harvey">US$350 million for Hurricane Harvey</a> recovery efforts within a month, donations a month after <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/Hurricane-Irma-One-Month-Progress-Report-Details-American-Red-Cross-Relief-Efforts">Irma totaled only $56.4 million</a>. Red Cross donations amounted to just <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/One-Month-Progress-Report-Highlights-American-Red-Cross-Response-to-Hurricane-Maria">$31.6 million a month after Maria</a>.</p>
<p>And that’s despite estimates that total losses for each of the three big hurricanes were staggering and ranked <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/hurricane-damage-economic-costs-4150369">among the highest ever registered</a>.</p>
<p>Texas alone suffered an estimated <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Abbott-weathering-political-storms-in-addition-to-12299718.php">$150 billion in damage</a> from Harvey. Irma may have wrought as much as <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-economic-cost-of-harvey-irma-to-be-290-billion/70002686">$100 billion</a> in damage, and for Puerto Rico, Maria’s price tag may ultimately total some <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/puerto-rico-faces-cash-shortfall-hurricane-maria-50839504">$95 billion</a>. </p>
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<p>The ways people tend to give after disasters – such as a preference for <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">in-kind donations</a> like clothing and food and tying strings to cash – can also magnify the damage done by donor fatigue. </p>
<p>Giving things as opposed to cash may make donors feel like they’re making a concrete difference or make them more confident that their contribution will be put to a specific good use. But sending cases of bottled water or bales of diapers on long trips rarely helps as much as just giving money. It’s expensive and inefficient, and there is bound to be a mismatch between these items and what people on the ground actually need.</p>
<p>In-kind donations can also get stranded. Unused goods, like cases of peanut butter or blankets, either get put to a nonemergency use or sent to another location. When the latter happens, that means the water bottles, blankets or other things take extra trips – becoming more expensive by the time they make it to, say, a Puerto Rican mountaintop village.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These cases of bottled water were donated for the Empire State Relief and Recovery Effort for Puerto Rico in September.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Maria-New-York-Connection/0d0cca3f42f34669a37cae9bae58aed7/17/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Likewise, it can cause more harm than good when donors demand that the money they give be used in a specific way.</p>
<p>For example, some people stipulate that their monetary donations slated for, say, Hurricane Harvey survivors in Houston, Texas, must be used only for that purpose. That common and longstanding practice often prevents disaster relief groups from <a href="https://learn.guidestar.org/news/news-releases/2010/guidestar-urges-donors-not-to-restrict-nonprofits-when-giving-to-disaster-re">using that money elsewhere</a>.</p>
<p>This restriction distorts the ability of nonprofits to do their best to help the victims of more recent disasters, I’ve heard from people who worked for disaster relief organizations while doing my research.</p>
<p>Cash donations without constraints give relief groups the most flexibility, which helps temper the impact of donor fatigue in subsequent emergencies. </p>
<p>I find the lagging donations for Irma and Maria troubling because with few exceptions, most donations to support disaster relief are made within a few weeks of hurricanes, earthquakes or other devastating events. </p>
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<h2>Government funding fatigue</h2>
<p>Another problem that arises when disasters bunch up is that the government itself can’t keep up with demand for the funds it reserves for relief work.</p>
<p>The budget for what’s known as the the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Disaster Relief Fund</a> is largely based on the average of the previous decade of disaster spending. While structured to accommodate the unpredictability of the number and cost of events, years with a particularly catastrophic event – or multiple major disasters – can drain this budget. In those cases, the government can’t fully fund disaster response work unless <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Congress passes legislation allocating more money</a> and the president signs off.</p>
<p>Because dealing with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/09/08/549279078/with-harvey-and-now-irma-federal-funds-and-fema-are-put-to-the-test">Hurricane Harvey</a> had largely depleted these disaster funds before Hurricanes Irma and Maria even made landfall, Trump approved an additional <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357404-trump-signs-365b-disaster-relief-package">$36.5 billion</a> in a relief package.</p>
<p>But costs from these disasters are so high that this new allocation may not suffice. In addition, the funding includes $16 billion for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-insurance-is-broken-here-are-some-ways-to-fix-it-83769">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is not enough to to make up for its <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001/">$25 billion debt</a> that began piling up after Hurricane Katrina.</p>
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<h2>Even more disasters</h2>
<p>Compounding the problem is that Houston, Tampa, San Juan and <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-wildfires-leave-lasting-economic-scars-on-californias-vital-wine-country-86174">California’s wine country</a> aren’t the only communities struggling to get back on their feet.</p>
<p>In the middle of this busy hurricane and wildfire season, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-road-to-recovery-after-quakes-is-far-longer-than-it-looks-84479">Mexico was rocked by two earthquakes</a> – one of which also caused major damage in Guatemala. In South Asia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-himalayan-floods-are-made-worse-by-an-international-blame-game-83103">Bangladesh, India and Nepal were swamped</a> by extreme flooding.</p>
<p>At the same time, crises created through politics and war need donor aid too. Violence across the Middle East is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-have-4-8-million-syrian-refugees-gone-57968">uprooting millions of people</a> in that region, many of whom have nowhere to go as anti-refugee fervor heats up around the world. And hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-anyone-protect-the-rohingya-85809">Rohingya refugees</a> have fled persecution in Myanmar.</p>
<p>Just like when multiple disasters occur within a country, simultaneous crises across the globe create competition for relief resources on an international scale.</p>
<p>The good news is that there are some creative ways to combat donor fatigue and boost giving – even after relief donations usually dry up. For instance, musical theater superstar <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lin-manuel-miranda-brings-help-hope-to-puerto-rico/">Lin-Manuel Miranda</a> will reprise his signature role as Alexander Hamilton in 2019 in San Juan to raise money for Puerto Rican disaster relief while lifting local spirits.</p>
<p>It’s also not too late for the federal government to dedicate additional funding to help fill the gaps that remain. And there’s still time for everyone to make a difference by making monetary donations that give relief organizations the freedom to use those funds where they are needed the most.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"928349595385638912"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Penta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charitable giving and government aid can shortchange disasters that follow other disasters.Samantha Penta, Assistant Professor, College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/859412017-10-25T00:07:57Z2017-10-25T00:07:57ZThe mental health toll of Puerto Rico’s prolonged power outages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191440/original/file-20171023-1746-1a89c1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Plush toys, recovered from a flooded home, hang out to dry on a wrought iron gate in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria/18324e7e9a7749dcb0de3bf3cb818ef9/10/1">Ramon Espinosa/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than a month has passed since Hurricane Maria’s initial landfall in Puerto Rico, but around 80 percent of the island still <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/10/23/16501164/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-power-water-sewage-trump">remains without power</a>.</p>
<p>As residents grapple with the immediate damage, it’s worth asking what the health effects will be over the long term. How do we identify those most vulnerable, and, with limited resources, tailor public health interventions?</p>
<p>I have studied various disasters’ effects on health, from the Sept. 11 terrorist attack to Hurricane Sandy. Based on my studies of hurricanes and power outages, we can expect to see a number of lasting effects on Puerto Rico in the months ahead, including mental health issues. </p>
<h2>Lasting impact</h2>
<p>After Hurricane Sandy, the power was out for about 12 to 14 days, with variations across the eight affected counties in New York City.</p>
<p>We found that Hurricane Sandy had immediate effects on <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27087495">certain types of mental health problems</a>. Residents reported more emergency department visits due to anxiety and mood disorder after the hurricane, compared to the same period pre-Sandy.</p>
<p>Most emergency department visits due to mental health after Sandy involved substance abuse. This was especially true during the power outage. There were about 200 emergency department cases of substance abuse during Sandy and the blackout period, about four times as many as usual. </p>
<p>According to the data we’ve collected and are still analyzing, the negative effects from Hurricane Sandy on certain mental health illnesses – such as mood disorder and substance abuse – lasted anywhere from three months to as long as one year after the disaster, depending on the county. </p>
<p>Why did the stress endure for so long? Hurricanes and loss of power also lead to a loss of essential services for communities – such as access to food, clean water, transportation and communication. Lasting home damage can induce anxiety and depression among the residents in the affected areas, especially for those with preexisting mental health problems.</p>
<p>Puerto Rico is missing these basic services, making daily life more stressful and thus more likely to cause mental suffering over the weeks and months ahead.</p>
<h2>Who’s affected?</h2>
<p>Mental health issues reach all demographic groups. However, some seem to be more strongly affected by power outages than others.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3072860/">Northeast blackout in 2003</a>, which occurred over three hot August days, women and the elderly had 19 percent and 158 percent higher risks, respectively, for respiratory hospital admission than during the nonblackout period. </p>
<p>Our research suggests that socioeconomic status also significantly influences people’s susceptibility to adverse mental health after a disaster. Generally, groups of low socioeconomic status are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19593155">more susceptible to heat’s impact</a>. But, when that heat coincided with a blackout, we found that the trend reversed: Higher socioeconomic status groups were more likely to be hospitalized during a blackout. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3072860/">Hospital admissions for respiratory diseases</a> among high-income people significantly increased by 23 percent after the Northeast blackout. Our preliminary data also show that whites had significantly higher rates of emergency department visits than black and Hispanic individuals after Hurricane Sandy. </p>
<p>Why? One possible explanation is that groups of high socioeconomic status are more likely to use nebulizers, air conditioners or other electric home aids. Their dependence on this equipment could make them more susceptible to a hurricane’s effect during a power outage.</p>
<h2>What this means for Puerto Rico</h2>
<p>It’s not easy to recover after an unexpected disaster.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/15/us/puerto-rico-governor-update">Rebuilding the transmission and distribution network</a> will be an enormous task. With the help of outside aid, Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rosselló hopes to restore electricity to half of the island by Nov. 15 and to 95 percent of the island by the end of the year. </p>
<p>The power outage in Puerto Rico has already lasted almost four weeks, much longer than the blackout in New York City during Hurricane Sandy. We should expect to see a corresponding increase in disease – not only mental health issues, but also diseases that depend on electricity for treatment, such as renal failure, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.</p>
<p>Effective responses by different levels of governmental agencies are critical after a natural disaster. Public health officials need to monitor consequent mental health cases. A medical monitoring or surveillance program to follow up with the long-term health impacts would also be beneficial to the local residents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shao Lin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Long after the hurricane’s over and the power comes back, residents can still experience lasting mental health issues.Shao Lin, Professor of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839352017-09-26T00:16:51Z2017-09-26T00:16:51ZAs communities rebuild after hurricanes, study shows wetlands can significantly reduce property damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187281/original/file-20170924-11625-oduqde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coastal wetlands are an effective first line of defense and act by slowing down storm surges and reducing flooding</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/dibGy9">Kelly Fike/USFWS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A 12-year “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/07/the-science-behind-the-u-s-s-strange-hurricane-drought-and-its-sudden-end/?utm_term=.c030f9594f3e">hurricane drought</a>” during which no major hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States ended dramatically in 2017. The devastating impacts of Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria across the United States and the Caribbean provide tragic reminders of the catastrophic risks we face on our coasts.</p>
<p>Coastlines are being developed rapidly and intensely in the United States and worldwide. The population of central and south Florida, for example, has grown by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/climate/florida-hurricane-irma-damage.html?mcubz=0">six million since 1990</a>. Many of these cities and towns face the brunt of damage from hurricanes and are looking for better and cheaper ways to reduce their risks. Yet this rapid coastal development is destroying natural ecosystems like marshes, mangroves and coral reefs – resources that help protect us from catastrophes.</p>
<p>In a new and unique partnership <a href="https://www.lloyds.com/lloyds/corporate-responsibility/charity/tercentenary-research-foundation/role-of-coastal-habitats-in-managing-natural-hazards">funded by Lloyd’s of London</a>, we worked with colleagues in academia, environmental organizations and the insurance industry to calculate the financial benefits that coastal wetlands provide by reducing storm surge damages from hurricanes. Our recently published <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09269-z">study</a> found that this function is enormously valuable. It offers new evidence that protecting natural ecosystems is a cost-effective way to reduce risks from coastal storms and flooding.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Coastal wetlands and flood damage reduction: A collaboration between academia, conservation and the risk industry.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The economic value of flood protection from wetlands</h2>
<p>Although there is a broad understanding that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0154735">wetlands can protect coastlines</a>, researchers have not explicitly measured how and where these benefits translate into dollar values in terms of reduced risks to people and property. To answer this question, our group worked with experts who understand risk best: insurers and risk modelers. </p>
<p>Using the industry’s storm surge <a href="http://www.rms.com/models/flood">models,</a> we compared the flooding and property damages that occurred with wetlands during Hurricane Sandy to the damages that would have occurred if these wetlands were lost. First we compared the extent and severity of flooding during Sandy to the flooding that would have happened in a scenario where all the coastal wetlands were lost. Then, using high-resolution data on assets in the flooded locations, we measured the property damages for both simulations. The difference in damages – with wetlands and without – gave us an estimate of the damages that were avoided due to the presence of these ecosystems.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09269-z">Our paper</a> shows that during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, coastal wetlands prevented more than US$625 million in direct property damages by buffering coasts against its storm surge. Across 12 coastal states, from Maine to North Carolina, wetlands and marshes reduced damages by an average of 11 percent. </p>
<p>These benefits varied widely by location at the local and state level. In Maryland, wetlands reduced damages by 30 percent. In highly urban areas like New York and New Jersey they provided hundreds of millions of dollars in flood protection.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186483/original/file-20170918-30563-celbpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wetland benefits for flood damage reduction during Sandy (redder areas benefited more from having wetlands).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z/figures/1">Narayan et al., Nature Scientific Reports 7, 9463 (2017).</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wetlands reduced damages in most locations, but not everywhere. In places in North Carolina and the Chesapeake Bay, wetlands redirected the surge in ways that protected properties directly behind them, but caused greater flooding to some properties, mainly in front of the marshes. Just as we would not build in front of a seawall or a levee, it is important to be aware of the impacts of building near wetlands.</p>
<p>Wetlands reduce flood losses from storms every year, not just during single catastrophic events. We examined the effects of marshes across 2,000 storms in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. These marshes reduced flood losses annually by an average of 16 percent, and up to 70 percent in some locations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186485/original/file-20170918-30536-5x4eea.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reductions in annual flood losses to properties that have a marsh in front (blue) versus properties that have lost the marshes in front (orange).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z/figures/3">Narayan et al., Nature Scientific Reports 7, 9463 (2017).</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reducing risk through conservation</h2>
<p>Our study demonstrates that we can measure the reduction in flood risks that coastal ecosystems provide – a concern that is central for the <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/08/how-the-insurance-industry-can-push-us-to-prepare-for-climate-change">risk and insurance industry</a> and for coastal managers. We show that these risk reduction benefits are significant and make a strong case for conserving and protecting our coastal ecosystems – an issue central to conservation practitioners.</p>
<p>The next step is to <a href="http://nature.org/FinancingNaturalInfrastructureReport10.7291/V9PN93H3">use these benefits to create incentives</a> for wetland conservation and restoration. Homeowners and municipalities could receive reductions on insurance premiums for managing wetlands. Post-storm spending should include more <a href="http://news.maryland.gov/dnr/2017/09/20/new-grant-program-funds-nature-based-solutions-to-protect-coastal-communities/">support for this natural infrastructure</a>. And new financial tools such as <a href="http://www.refocuspartners.com/rebound/">resilience bonds</a>, which incentivize investments in measures that reduce risk, could support wetland restoration efforts too.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187408/original/file-20170925-18946-e7hsee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The dense vegetation and shallow waters within wetlands can slow the advance of storm surge and dissipate wave energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/Portals/40/siteimages/NACCS/20.jpg">USACE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>After the 2017 hurricanes</h2>
<p>As communities in Texas, Florida and the Caribbean assess their losses, the conversation is starting to turn toward <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-rules-for-rebuilding-infrastructure-in-an-era-of-unprecedented-weather-events-83129">rebuilding and improving resilience</a> against future storms.</p>
<p>It is human nature to want to return to the status quo after a disaster. More often than not, this means <a href="https://doi.org/10.15351/2373-8456.1069">rebuilding seawalls</a> and concrete barriers. But concrete walls are expensive, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00230.1">will need constant upgrades</a> as sea levels rise and will further damage our natural ecosystems.</p>
<p>Even after suffering years of damage, Florida’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2012.02.021">mangrove wetlands</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4794">coral reefs</a> play crucial roles in protecting the state from hurricane surges and waves. And yet, over the last six decades urban development has <a href="https://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/condition/fknms/state.html">eliminated</a> half of Florida’s historic mangrove habitat. Losses are still occurring across the state from the Keys to <a href="http://reefrelieffounders.com/mangroves.html">Tampa Bay and Miami</a>. Protecting and nurturing these natural first lines of defense could help Florida homeowners reduce damages to their properties during future storms.</p>
<p>Protecting coastal ecosystems is not a full remedy for coastal risks, but it should be part of a <a href="http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/CompStudy/Risk-Management-Strategies/">portfolio of solutions</a>, from elevating buildings to strengthening levees to flood proofing. Beyond hurricane season, coastal communities face a crucial question: whether they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-victims-of-hurricane-harvey-can-learn-from-katrina-as-rebuilding-begins-83184">rebuild</a> in ways that make them better-prepared for the next storm while also conserving their natural resources. Our work shows that the answer is yes. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that the 12-year “hurricane drought” describes a period during which no major hurricane made landfall in the continental United States.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83935/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siddharth Narayan receives funding from the Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, a charity wing of Lloyd's of London.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Beck receives funding from the Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation. He is the lead marine scientist for The Nature Conservancy.</span></em></p>New research by scholars, conservationists and the insurance industry shows that coastal wetlands provide hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of protection from flooding, boosting the case for protecting them.Siddharth Narayan, Postdoctoral Fellow, Coastal Flood Risk, University of California, Santa CruzMichael Beck, Adjunct Professor, University of California, Santa CruzLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/837662017-09-12T02:18:47Z2017-09-12T02:18:47ZWhat do hospitals do in a hurricane? Use their own emergency plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185524/original/file-20170911-15801-18akahy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damage from Irma can be seen in this photo of Kelly McClenthen in Bonita Springs, Florida, as she returned to her home Sept. 11, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Irma/8bc226584169426ca4a152f738cc8118/24/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all expect hospitals to be open and operating when we need them, but extreme weather events like hurricanes are a strain on resources and pose significant challenges for hospitals. Closing a hospital is an extreme action, but several <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/09/irma-hospital-evacuations-rundown/">hospitals in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina</a> did just that before the arrival of Hurricane Irma.</p>
<p>Following the widespread power outages in the aftermath of the storm, there were reports of hospitals running on <a href="https://patch.com/florida/miami/irma-hialeah-hospital-has-2-hours-power-left">backup generators</a>.</p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.fha.org/facts.html">more than 300 hospitals</a> and a higher share of older adults than any other state, emergency plans for Florida’s hospitals were a critical issue facing emergency planners.</p>
<p>As a professor of urban planning, I have studied emergency planning and evacuation and also co-authored an extensive report on how hospitals coped with the aftermath of <a href="https://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/bulletin/06/20-01/02katrinasem.asp">Hurricane Katrina</a> and <a href="https://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/Reconnaissance/08-SP07/08-SP07.pdf">Hurricane Gustav</a>. Hospitals plan for catastrophic events, but there are always lessons to be learned. </p>
<p>Hospitals try to stay open and to care for patients already hospitalized and for those who suffer injury or illness from a storm. Here’s how they do it. </p>
<h2>Planning is paramount</h2>
<p>Each hospital is required to have an emergency plan, usually approved by the hospital’s accrediting body. A hospital director and emergency leadership team are responsible for implementing the disaster plan.</p>
<p>A hospital typically convenes a top leadership team and activates the hospital’s Incident Command Center (ICC). Team members coordinate with weather experts, local governments, local law enforcement, ambulance companies and first responders, and communicate with patients and their families. </p>
<p>One of the most difficult decisions facing a hospital’s leadership team as it prepares to face a storm is the decision to evacuate some or all of the hospital’s patients.</p>
<p>Before a storm, a decision would be made to “shelter in place” (prepare the hospital and all patients and staff to “batten down the hatches” and remain in the hospital) or perform a full-scale evacuation, as did several hospitals in the <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/09/irma-hospital-evacuations-rundown/">Florida Keys, Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville</a>. In that case, patients would be moved to other facilities. This is rare, however, as the risk to patients and costs in time and money are very high. </p>
<p>In some cases, a hospital will transfer certain patients at very high risk should a power outage occur, as a Savannah hospital decided to do in <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/09/irma-hospital-evacuations-rundown/">transferring newborns from its neonatal unit</a> to hospitals in Atlanta.</p>
<p>Hurricanes can be classified as an expected event, unlike other extreme events that happen spontaneously and without warning, like earthquakes. When a hurricane is predicted, plans are focused on the “zero hour,” or when the hurricane is predicted to make landfall. Major milestones in the emergency plan are performed according to a predetermined schedule in the hours and days leading up to the zero hour.</p>
<p>Hospital staff prepare the hospital to weather a storm. Supplies and equipment must be moved to higher floors in case of flooding. Security must be on hand because of the threat of vandals and looters. At the same time, patients must be continually cared for.</p>
<p>On the patient side, patients who can be discharged from a hospital before a disaster strikes are discharged. New patients are not admitted. Elective surgeries are canceled. Pregnant women and patients who need specialized care, such as the babies in Savannah, may be transferred to facilities out of harm’s way. But transferring a patient is a decision made with great care, as any transfer could produce shocks that put patients in grave danger.</p>
<h2>Preparing for the worst</h2>
<p>The medical staff of doctors, nurses and technicians are typically divided into an “A team,” who would be in place in the hospital when the disaster strikes, and a “B team,” who would be on standby to report to the hospital after the disaster and relieve the A team. Sometimes, the B team is already at the hospital and goes into action to relieve the A team as necessary. </p>
<p>There is no difference in ability between the A and B teams; they are merely called A and B to distinguish between the two groups. That said, staff members with disaster experience are prized employees. </p>
<p>Depending on hospital policy, hospital staff members may be allowed to bring family members and even pets with them to the hospital, since past experience has shown that this practice increases the likelihood they will report to work in the face of the disaster and not flee and abandon their jobs. During <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/50896/411348-Hospitals-in-Hurricane-Katrina.PDF">Hurricane Katrina</a>, some hospital staff evacuated New Orleans when they were expected at work, and hospital administrators have since better communicated emergency plans to reassure all staffers that their safety is of prime importance.</p>
<h2>Dealing with the chaos after a storm</h2>
<p>Hospitals also face important decisions about patient care after a storm. To evacuate after a disaster and face aftermath conditions, such as <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/hurricane-katrina">unprecedented flooding in New Orleans</a> following Hurricane Katrina, could be more challenging than evacuating before a disaster. Dangerous hospital evacuations were performed in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. If extreme flooding occurs, emergency plans must take into account the fact the surface transportation might not be available.</p>
<p>In the aftermath of a disaster, hospitals may suffer power loss. Emergency plans call for backup power and other contingency systems. Uninterrupted power is critical, since some patients may be connected to lifesaving equipment. </p>
<p>In southern states, where most hurricanes in the U.S. first hit land, air conditioning is vital to patient comfort. Therefore, hospitals in states such as Florida, Georgia and South Carolina must have a plan to ensure air conditioning, when possible. </p>
<p>Hospitals must also be prepared to be self-sufficient in the event that responders cannot reach them. Plenty of food, water and medicine must be on hand. Emergency supplies are always on hand in hospitals, but hospitals order even more if the threat of an extreme event is real, as was the case with Irma.</p>
<h2>Lessons from previous extreme events</h2>
<p>Any time a disaster occurs and a hospital’s ICC is activated, there are lessons to be learned. Hospitals’ experiences in Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Sandy and other extreme events brought some of those lessons to the forefront.</p>
<p>First, it is especially important to construct resilient building systems, such as electrical, gas, water and sewers. Emergency planners should plan for a backup system to activate should a main system fail. For example, backup generators, which typically had been placed on first-floor or basement maintenance rooms, are now often placed on higher floors after they were wiped out in previous hurricanes and floods. Many hospitals also have their own wells on site (or wells that can be used in emergency).</p>
<p>Second, hospitals must plan to be self-sufficient, in a worst-case scenario for up to a month. Hospitals should be prepared with greater quantities and fuel and critical supplies. Agreements with partners made in advance of disasters can open up channels for faster delivery of supplies.</p>
<p>When disaster strikes, protecting lives is a top priority, and hospital staffers are surely some of the bravest people working to save lives. </p>
<p>Hospital communities should take comfort in their preparation of a disaster plan, and then execute it with adaptability and flexibility. Advanced planning for extreme events allows hospital staff to focus on what they do best – compassionate patient care – when a disaster strikes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
Nothing to disclose.</span></em></p>Even in areas predicted to take direct hits from hurricanes and other storms, hospitals must do all they can to stay open. It isn’t an easy task, but preparation and practice help.Daniel Baldwin Hess, Professor, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783822017-06-29T00:55:34Z2017-06-29T00:55:34ZNew data set explores 90 years of natural disasters in the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172277/original/file-20170605-16915-coks0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sun rises behind the remains of a New Jersey roller coaster destroyed by Hurricane Sandy. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Superstorm-Roller-Coaster/ab71c2f287de437887732b77e1511309/1/1">AP Photo/Mel Evans</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year, major earthquakes, floods and hurricanes occur. These natural disasters disrupt daily life and, in the worst cases, cause devastation. Events such as <a href="https://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/27/hurricane-sandy-vs-hurricane-katrina/?_r=0">Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy</a> killed thousands of people and generated billions of dollars in losses.</p>
<p>There is also concern that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf">global climate change</a> will <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002247#bbb0285">increase the frequency and intensity</a> of weather–related disasters. </p>
<p>Our research team wanted to know how disasters affect people’s decisions to move in or out of particular areas. We created <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w23410">a new database</a> that covers disasters in the United States from 1920 to 2010 at the county level, combining data from the American Red Cross as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and its predecessors. </p>
<p>Our work shows that people move away from areas hit by the largest natural disasters, but smaller disasters have little effect on migration. The data also showed that these trends may worsen inequality in the U.S., as the rich move away from disaster-prone areas, while the poor are left behind. </p>
<p><iframe id="ElSJG" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ElSJG/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h1>Changing risks</h1>
<p>The U.S. is a large country, with many regions that differ with respect to their risk of suffering a natural disaster. For example, coastal areas or areas in the flood plain of a river are more likely to experience a natural disaster, whereas areas at higher elevation <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7376">are at lower risk</a>. </p>
<p>Florida and areas on the Gulf of Mexico are wracked by hurricanes; New England and the Atlantic seaboard are battered by winter storms; the Midwest is a tornado-prone region; and counties along the Mississippi River are subject to recurrent flooding.</p>
<p>There are comparatively few disasters in the West, with the exception of California, which is affected primarily by droughts and fires. (However, the small number of disasters declared in the Mountain West may reflect the limited population in the area.)</p>
<p>Technological innovation has reduced our exposure to damages from disasters. Infrastructure in the U.S. <a href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/0034653053970339">has been upgraded</a> to reduce risks posed by flooding, high winds and earthquakes. </p>
<p>Furthermore, we now have access to real-time information that allows us to be aware of emerging threats. In Asia, for example, tsunami warnings are <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-008-9340-5">distributed by text message</a>. Accurate <a href="http://www.scidev.net/global/communication/feature/early-warning-of-disasters-facts-and-figures-1.html">early warning systems</a> are likely to help us adapt, reducing the death count from disasters.</p>
<p>Yet, as of 2010, <a href="http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coastal-population-report.pdf">39 percent of the U.S. population</a> lived in <a href="http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coastal-population-report.pdf">coastal areas</a> that feature greater risks of hurricane, floods and earthquakes. </p>
<p>Add to this process the wild card of climate change. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf">Basic climate science</a> suggests that, as global greenhouse gas emissions increase, so too will the quantity and severity of natural disasters. </p>
<h1>How disasters shape an area</h1>
<p>We used our new database to explore whether areas hit by natural disasters lost more residents to migration than areas that were comparatively calm.</p>
<p>We found that, if a county experienced two natural disasters, migration out of that county increased by one percentage point, with the strongest reactions happening in response to hurricanes. This translates into a loss of around 600 residents from a typical county. The effect of one very large disaster – responsible for 100 or more deaths – was twice as big. </p>
<p>Poverty rates also increased by one percentage point in areas hit by super-severe disasters. That suggests that people who aren’t poor are migrating out or that people who are poor are migrating in. It might also mean that the existing population transitioned into poverty. We contrasted decades with high disaster activity to decades of comparable calm, thus making it unlikely that we are simply observing areas with higher poverty rates. </p>
<p><iframe id="Ar5gV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ar5gV/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We were particularly interested in learning how the 1978 advent of FEMA – the agency that coordinates federal response to natural disasters – may have influenced the likelihood that people will migrate away following a disaster event. One might expect that residents would be <a href="https://hbr.org/2012/11/the-problem-with-fema-no-one-is-talking-about">less likely to move</a> out of disaster-struck areas after this date, if FEMA increased payments of federal disaster relief. </p>
<p>Yet, we found that, if anything, residents were more likely to migrate out of counties struck by natural disasters after FEMA was created. This pattern is consistent with <a href="http://deryugina.com/2016-05-16-Deryugina-safety-net.pdf">recent research</a> documenting that the federal funds that flow to victims of disasters come mainly in the form of non-place-based programs like unemployment insurance and food stamps. It appears that many people in disaster-affected areas take the money and move to another county.</p>
<p>Finally, we compared the behavior of people living in low- and high-risk counties. People in areas very prone to suffer disasters – such as counties on a coastline or in a river plain – were three times more likely to leave areas following a severe shock than people in a typical county.</p>
<h1>Rising inequality</h1>
<p>Despite the progress in preparing for natural disasters, our research suggests the poor will face growing exposure to natural disaster activity. Our research suggests that the rich may have the resources to move away from areas facing natural disasters, leaving behind a population that is disproportionately poor. </p>
<p>During a time of increased concern about income inequality and climate change risk, natural disaster exposure risk could become another cause of rising quality of life inequality between the rich and the poor. Our study suggests that areas that do not adapt to natural disaster risk will become poorer over time, as well-to-do residents move away.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the rich move away from disaster-prone areas, the poor may be left behind.Leah Platt Boustan, Professor of Economics, Princeton UniversityMaria Lucia Yanguas, Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of California, Los AngelesMatthew E. Kahn, Professor of Economics, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesPaul W. Rhode, Professor and Chair of Economics, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/598752016-05-31T01:04:55Z2016-05-31T01:04:55ZCities can prepare for hurricane season by reforming shortsighted and outdated laws<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124352/original/image-20160527-867-19jvt5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">National Guard soldiers inspect homes in Rockaway Park, Queens, New York, after Superstorm Sandy, 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/panationalguard/8181392927/in/photolist-dsXM5K-e8JCNj-eKzx1B-dBMi4S-dqenE2-dBMiab-dBFTpM-dBFSJV-dpe85C-dBFSAv-dBMifb-4H5J4L-dpe7Xd-2aDXGY-bzr4Sc-dpLwhk-nXJH6R-dqgvrr-eKLYU3-e8JCMY-31kfLM-dpLph3-eKLYWd-dpcXC1-eKM1SY-e8CYZH-dpKcWV-9o2j8g-dqWd1g-eKLYZj-e8JCXb-eKzwWt-eKLZbm-doTiBq-dL5Ktu-eKLYyu-eKLYr9-eKzynr-fL552h-eKLYub-eKLZDb-dqWcLT-dpKgsA-dpK62e-dpwq5f-eKzz6B-fNBYPz-dpL5CM-dpwqnm-eKLYuj">Spc. Zane Craig, PA National Guard/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season begins on <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/us/2016-atlantic-hurricane-season-fast-facts/">June 1</a>, and the <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/hurricane_preparedness.html">public awareness campaign</a> is fueling speculation. How many “named” storms will there be before the season ends on November 30? Will any of them strike the United States? If they do, how strong might those storms be? </p>
<p>This annual hype produces more angst than answers. On the one hand, experts predict that this season will bring <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2016-hurricane-season-forecast-atlantic-the-weather-channel">more tropical storms than the average year</a>. On the other, these same experts concur that it is impossible to know whether any of the storms will make a United States landfall. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, U.S. cities need to prepare for storm season. And in doing so, they should think beyond winds, waves and storm surges. </p>
<p>Severe storms can alter cities’ physical landscapes and shut down vital systems like roads and utilities. They also expose ways in which a city functions poorly, including whether it is supported by weak legal and regulatory frameworks. One important step cities can take to prepare for future storms is to <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2479909">identify laws or legal vulnerabilities</a> that impede post-storm recovery. Deficient compliance with existing law, or code provisions that do not reflect current storm threats, can seriously hinder rebuilding efforts after disasters strike.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124354/original/image-20160527-867-xh76in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mardi Gras in New Orleans post-Katrina, 2006.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/boxchain/98596706/in/photolist-6cJRRT-4dwKsG-9Hknd-JBwwf-goEM2-f3uCp-f3uCi-f3uCo-f3uCj-f3vhr-kvc4F-f3vhp-rhzVo-f3eFk">Alex Cockroach/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Weak recoveries can cause as much suffering as storms</h2>
<p>Hurricane experts properly remind families and businesses to prepare for storms by developing <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/news/160404_hurricane_evacuation.html">evacuation plans</a> and double-checking their insurance coverage – especially flood coverage, which is <a href="https://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/about/nfip_overview.jsp">not included in typical homeowner’s policies</a>. </p>
<p>But local leaders in vulnerable regions often miss a critical point. Citizens may suffer more misery during an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/nyregion/after-the-storm-20-months-in-limbo.html?version=meter+at+0&contentId=&mediaId=&referrer=&priority=true&action=click&contentCollection=N.Y.%20%2F%20Region&module=RelatedCoverage&region=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article">extended, poorly managed rebuilding effort</a> than from a hurricane’s high winds, heavy rains and pounding surf. </p>
<p>Neighborhood revitalization programs that move slowly may prevent families from moving home. Twenty-two months after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0627/p01s06-usec.html">New Orleans was still waiting</a> for federal funds to promote neighborhood recovery. Twenty-one months after Superstorm Sandy battered the mid-Atlantic coast in 2012, 20,000 <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/nyregion/after-hurricane-sandy-a-rebuilding-program-is-hindered-by-its-own-construction.html?_r=1">New York City homeowners were waiting</a> for funding to help rebuild their homes. </p>
<p>These delays have profound consequences. Elderly and low- and moderate-income families who do not have homeowner’s or flood insurance or significant savings have minimal reserves to travel back home after evacuations. Frequently <a href="http://www.nola.com/katrina/index.ssf/2010/08/five_years_after_hurricane_kat.html">they never return</a>, remaining instead with relatives or friends in another city. </p>
<p>Extended displacement also means that <a href="http://thelensnola.org/2014/06/24/in-some-parts-of-new-orleans-eyesores-remain-on-citys-list-of-fixed-up-properties/">long after a disaster</a>, empty homes remain boarded or, worse, unsecured. New and returning local businesses cannot afford to open their doors when neighborhoods remain dark. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124364/original/image-20160527-874-3kbqwa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emergency shelter at Rowan University, Glassboro, New Jersey, during Hurricane Irene in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rowanuniversitypublications/6830091068/in/album-72157629569453701/">Rowan University/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Laws guide storm recovery</h2>
<p>As <a href="http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2013/HUDNo.13-125">government officials</a> and <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2456358">scholars</a> note, laws are critical instruments that can bolster or hamper communities’ resilience against natural disasters. Prior to storms, laws <a href="http://digitalcommons.pace.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1101&context=pelr">guide hazard mitigation efforts</a> by setting development standards to minimize loss of life or property in the event of a future disaster. Laws also define the range of options for rebuilding cities and regions. </p>
<p>However, many relevant state constitutional provisions, local ordinances and federal laws were adopted before hazard mitigation, climate change and sea level rise were part of politicians’ lexicons. And some newer laws have been conceived narrowly, without considering disaster risk reduction or recovery. These laws can make it hard to restore businesses, families, schools and hospitals after disasters strike. </p>
<p>Cities rebuilding from hurricanes need large infusions of federal grant money to purchase storm-damaged homes or help rebuild them. But these funds must be spent in strict compliance with <a href="http://nhma.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/A_Living_Mosaic_FINAL.pdf">a thicket of federal laws</a> and regulations. Cities that fail to follow regulations may <a href="http://www.hud.gov/offices/oig/reports/files/ig10a1005.pdf">lose federal funds</a> for locally administered recovery projects. </p>
<p>One notable example is the Stafford Act, which was <a href="http://www.hstoday.us/channels/fema/single-article-page/senate-passes-sandy-disaster-relief-bill-with-recovery-reform-provisions/24a6c3199ad4be557ee09b533634e831.html">amended and improved</a>
immediately following Sandy. Problematic execution of the National Environmental Policy Act <a href="http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2050&context=elq">caused delays in New Orleans’ post-Katrina neighborhood recovery</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124370/original/image-20160527-888-u466qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FEMA trailer, used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to house people displaced by storms, New Orleans, 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/organisciak/2288616779/in/photolist-8dqo7r-axqz2-7ykFHY-o2nS6-5rmvvN-3nZmZk-arvFCn-5EsTo1-Arqde-BZ32y-tnZQP-9MhxrG-5Bw482-4RhcsG-5BAcYU-4ueL2Z-5BAiKj-4nU2aV-5BwPH2-5Bw2ex-4Ab3sE-5BwPmp-5BB6b7-DatK1-5BwQdz-5Bw3cc-5BwP9X-5BB6XA-5BAkjE-5BAghj-b9ggt-9oaiu1-JHkyb-5BAcP3-5BAjsW-GsybD-5BAit3-5BvVN6-5BvXLB-eirMC-5BvVCF-qGqtx-qnNdt-5BwP4r-GioFz5-5BvWqk-86ukp-5BvWSX-5BvVvH-4wYDTi">Peter Organisciak/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>State constitutions, statutes and city ordinances also can obstruct post-storm housing and community development projects. Examples include: </p>
<ul>
<li>a Louisiana <a href="http://legis.la.gov/Legis/Law.aspx?d=206541">state constitutional provision</a> that can frustrate donation of publicly owned, blighted and abandoned properties for post-storm development of affordable housing;</li>
<li>widespread adoption of state <a href="http://ij.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/kelo5year_ann-white_paper.pdf">constitutional and statutory provisions</a>, such as a <a href="http://digitalcommons.law.lsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1061&context=faculty_scholarship">Louisiana</a> constitutional provision repealed only in 2010, that may prevent cities from using eminent domain to redevelop long-neglected properties by transferring them to private low- and moderate-income housing developers; </li>
<li>a lack of <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2479909">essential affordable housing planning documents</a> to guide post-storm housing redevelopment efforts – another impediment to post-Katrina recovery in New Orleans; and</li>
<li>problems for homeowners who cannot show clear legal title to their homes – frequently because they have taken possession of houses from deceased former owners without navigating state probate law systems. <a href="http://law.utexas.edu/publicinterest/docs/no_will_homeowners.pdf">In Texas</a> following Hurricanes Ike and Dolly, low- and moderate-income homeowners were denied federal grants and private loans and grants because they could not establish clear legal title to their homes. </li>
</ul>
<p>In short, every city hall that could potentially be hit by a tropical storm should examine local ordinances and state and federal laws for requirements that could impede disaster recovery. City leaders should also look for opportunities to <a href="http://www.planning.org/research/postdisaster/briefingpapers/recoveryordinance.htm">develop ordinances</a> that will <a href="http://www.planning.org/research/postdisaster/briefingpapers/recoverymanagement.htm">speed recovery</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124355/original/image-20160527-903-5mtuow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Irene (2011) caused some US$16 billion in damages from North Carolina to Vermont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/6096549427/in/photolist-ahJpKa-ahNH43-ahNH4Q-cMj6rG-cMj71s-ahpBKa-ajdYVF-cMj6Po-cMj6Bu-d2jxqo-atQEXe-cBRfzQ-atdpph-aizgN4-akzKey-ahTgaA-aizfYg-ahTg2f-aiC4D3-aizgtz-aiC3YE-dziHm8-aivSMM-aiiggA-aiC4o9-aC8HFG-aizgFH-ahCwbJ-aizgbB-amqH1s-dJLA6e-ahCvTE-ahzJEM-aiigho-ahCur9-ahNH2J-atrauN-dHb16s-cBRexU-aizhrr-ahQs6k-csmQzj-cBRf59-ahzHtB-ahTfG1-ajX6D5-ahCtFu-ahPuzJ-ahTgdA-eyPyNW">NASA Earth Observatory/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://www.routledge.com/How-Cities-Will-Save-the-World-Urban-Innovation-in-the-Face-of-Population/Brescia-Marshall/p/book/9781472450265">“How Cities Will Save the World,”</a> <a href="http://www.albanylaw.edu/faculty/pages/faculty-listing.aspx?ind=Brescia,%20Raymond%20H.">Albany Law School Professor Ray Brescia</a> and I examine a range of pressing concerns for U.S. cities, including becoming more resilient to disasters. In our view, creative problem solving flourishes in cities out of necessity. Many local officials are developing innovative approaches to disaster recovery and mitigation where existing laws have provided little guidance. Examples include relocating residents from vulnerable neighborhoods and developing historic resource preservation programs for coastal cities. </p>
<p>The American Planning Association (APA) also has identified multiple ways in which cities can prepare ahead to improve post-storm recovery. APA emphasizes the importance of <a href="https://www.planning.org/research/postdisaster/briefingpapers/hazardmitigation.htm">mitigation</a> – steps such as updating building codes to reflect new flood projections. The APA also urges cities to lay the legal groundwork for recovery by adopting ordinances that will prepare them for <a href="http://www.planning.org/research/postdisaster/briefingpapers/recoveryordinance.htm">managing the recovery process</a>. A core theme tying the APA’s research together is that communities confronted with disaster must strategize about how they’re going to bounce back – <a href="http://nhma.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Bounce-Forward.pdf">or better yet, bounce forward</a> – from storms and other natural hazards.</p>
<p>In the past decade major storms have devastated U.S. coastal cities from Galveston to Atlantic City and New York. They also have ravaged inland capitals, including Baton Rouge, Richmond and Montpelier. Ensuring that our cities have the legal infrastructure in place to build safer, more efficient, and more equitable neighborhoods and communities after storms is just as important as preparing homes and businesses to ride out those storms. </p>
<p><em>Edward A. Thomas, Esq., President, Natural Hazard Mitigation Association, and member of the Advisory Committee of the Natural Hazards Center of the University of Colorado, contributed to this article</em>.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the end date of Atlantic hurricane season.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Travis Marshall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Atlantic hurricane season opens on June 1, eastern U.S. cities can prepare by updating laws, codes and ordinances that hamper rebuilding after storms.John Travis Marshall, Assistant Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/523632016-01-22T11:03:17Z2016-01-22T11:03:17ZBuilding climate resilience in cities: lessons from New York<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108356/original/image-20160117-20924-1q2lg8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Earth's city lights</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=55167">NASA Visible Earth</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in an urbanizing world. Up to two-thirds of the world’s population – some six billion people – <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects.html">may live in cities by 2050</a>. </p>
<p>Cities have emerged as first responders to climate change because they experience the impacts of natural disasters firsthand and because they produce up to 70 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>To protect urban dwellers from climate change impacts, such as more frequent and more intense heat waves, heavy downpours and coastal flooding, cities need to make themselves more resilient.</p>
<p>That’s why cities figured so prominently at the Paris climate conference last month, where <a href="http://www.compactofmayors.org/press/michael-r-bloomberg-and-european-commissioner-pierre-moscovici-announce-historic-partnership-between-the-compact-of-mayors-and-the-covenant-of-mayors/">hundreds of mayors</a> pledged to reduce emissions and improve city resilience. As of today, 447 cities have signed on to the <a href="http://www.compactofmayors.org/">Compact of Mayors</a>, a coalition of city leaders who have pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, track progress and prepare for climate change impacts. </p>
<p>We codirect the <a href="http://www.uccrn.org/">Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN)</a>, a group of over 600 experts who provide climate science information on adaptation and mitigation to urban leaders and practitioners from governments, the private sector, nongovernmental organizations and the community. At the Paris conference, the UCCRN released the <a href="http://uccrn.org/arc3-2/">Summary for City Leaders</a> of its Second Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities. </p>
<p>Based on our work with UCCRN, we believe that cities have great potential to lead on climate change solutions, but must be transformed in order to do so. </p>
<p>We also believe that New York City’s experience in rebuilding after 2012’s Hurricane Sandy offers useful lessons for other cities.</p>
<h2>Adaptable plans</h2>
<p>UCCRN has identified transformative strategies that cities can pursue to become climate leaders. </p>
<p>They should link preparations for near-term disasters and long-term climate change; meld activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience; involve multiple stakeholder groups and scientists in the planning process; focus on protecting the most vulnerable; enhance local credit worthiness and management skills; and look outward by joining city networks. </p>
<p>New York City is already pursuing these objectives, motivated largely by the damages it has already suffered from extreme weather.</p>
<p>On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hurtled ashore in the New York metropolitan region, killing 44 people and causing US$19 billion in damages in New York City alone. The flood inundation zone in New York City encompassed approximately <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/html/report/report.shtml">88,700 buildings, which contained 300,000 homes and 23,000 businesses</a>, and left two million people without electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108357/original/image-20160117-20924-1f9x0hg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hugh L. Carey Tunnel between Brooklyn and Manhattan flooded during Hurricane Sandy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hugh_L._Carey_Tunnel_during_Hurricane_Sandy_vc.jpg">Metropolitan Transit Authority/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sandy was a wake-up call that showed how vulnerable New York City was to extreme climate events. In its wake, city leaders resolved to take steps that would make New York <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/html/report/report.shtml">stronger and more resilient</a> in the face of climate change. </p>
<p>New York’s experience in rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy highlights <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000910">three main messages</a> that are transferable to other cities.</p>
<p>First, there is enough information to act on climate change today based on the best-available science. Cities can update their climate projections and urban climate change action plans as scientific understanding improves and city leaders learn more about resiliency, but there is no reason to delay climate action planning.</p>
<p>In New York City, the <a href="http://www.nyas.org/Publications/Annals/Detail.aspx?cid=ab9d0f9f-1cb1-4f21-b0c8-7607daa5dfcc">New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC)</a>, a body of experts first convened by Mayor Bloomberg in 2008, developed a concept of Flexible Adaptation Pathways that the city adopted in its long-term planning. Originally conceived in London, this approach calls for agencies to start adopting resiliency measures immediately, monitor how well they work, and continually update their understanding of climate risk information and responses as the climate system and resilience actions evolve. </p>
<p>If cities do not start acting now, many of the world’s vulnerable cities and populations will endure significant impacts from heat waves, heavy downpours and coastal flooding due to sea level rise.</p>
<p>The second important priority is to plan across entire metropolitan regions. In preparing for climate change, the city of New York is taking an approach that encompasses the entire “infrastructure-shed” of the city. </p>
<p>For example, the New York City climate action task force includes regional transportation providers who manage the subways, buses, and railroads that run within and around the city into the extended metropolitan region. Plans must also consider how extreme droughts and inland floods can affect the watershed that supplies New York City’s drinking water.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108358/original/image-20160117-20946-1mzyosp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Staten Island, New York residents wait to buy gasoline to power generators after Hurricane Sandy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7a/TAG_Hurricane_Sandy_Gas_Lines.jpg">Thomas Good/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Disasters and extreme events do not respect political boundaries, so steps to make cities more resilient cannot stop at city limits. Instead, they need to encompass the interconnected energy, water, transportation, telecommunications, sanitation, health, food and public safety systems that extend beyond municipal borders to the wider metropolitan region and beyond, including national and international supply chains.</p>
<p>New York City’s third key step is bringing together city decision-makers, infrastructure managers, citizens groups and other key actors with researchers to develop shared understanding of New York’s specific climate change vulnerabilities and climate science needs. </p>
<p>That’s because climate change will not impact every city in the same way. For example, some cities will be exposed to repeated and worsening droughts, while others may be more exposed to flooding or extreme heat events. Scientists and stakeholders need to work together to understand the risks that are relevant for each city so that they can find effective ways to prepare for climate change. </p>
<h2>Critical vulnerabilities</h2>
<p>The most critical vulnerability in New York City that Hurricane Sandy spotlighted is coastal flooding. Currently, an estimated <a href="http://www1.nyc.gov/html/onenyc/index.html">400,000 New York residents, 71,500 buildings</a> and much of the city’s critical infrastructure are located within the 100-year flood zone – that is, the area that has a one percent chance of flooding in any given year. Sea levels in New York City are rising at almost twice the global average rate, and the NPCC projects that <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.2015.1336.issue-1/issuetoc">sea levels will continue to rise</a> in the coming decades, which will put more residents, buildings and infrastructure at risk. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108216/original/image-20160114-2356-1u93jph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projected 100-year flood zone in New York City with sea level rise in the 2020s, 2050s, 2080s and 2100.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">New York City Panel on Climate Change, 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://uccrn.org/arc3-2/">Coastal cities across the world are vulnerable</a> to sea level rise and more intense coastal storms. And cities everywhere face risks including more frequent and more extreme heat waves and increasing heavy downpours. </p>
<p>Critical infrastructure systems in cities exposed to these changing hazards include energy, transportation, telecommunications, water and waste. These systems are interdependent, so impacts on one of them can cause cascading effects onto other infrastructure systems during an extreme event. </p>
<p>For example, Hurricane Sandy caused gas shortages in the New York metropolitan region: loading docks on the water were physically damaged, refineries and terminals lost power and pipelines shut down, making it impossible to receive or ship fuel. </p>
<p>This caused major failures in the gasoline supply chain, forcing drivers to wait in line at gas stations and limiting New Yorkers’ mobility. <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/html/report/report.shtml">Fuel shortages</a> also made it more challenging for ambulances to respond to emergencies, for utility workers to restore electricity and for relief workers to reach the hardest-hit areas of the city. </p>
<p>Certain groups of people in cities are disproportionately vulnerable. For example, more intense and longer-lasting heat waves threaten people with underlying health problems, the young and the elderly, and low-income residents.</p>
<h2>Investing in resilience</h2>
<p>The UCCRN recommends that cities should take a portfolio approach to investing in resilience measures that spreads resources across multiple categories. They include implementing citywide policies, such as upgrading building codes; hardening critical protective structures; investing in green infrastructure, such as green roofs and <a href="http://www.esf.edu/ere/endreny/GICalculator/BioswaleIntro.html">bioswales</a>; and strengthening social safety nets.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108213/original/image-20160114-2345-14lgq8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York City portfolio approach for urban resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">C. Rosenzweig</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In order to develop specific, localized climate action plans, stakeholders and scientists need to work together to learn about climate risks, brainstorm strategies and prioritize implementation. This process should include groups that represent a cross-section of the city’s population, including the most disadvantaged citizens, as well as the private sector. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement signals a new era for climate change, and cities are generating positive energy for this new phase. Early-adopter cities such as New York need to continue to strengthen and share their actions and lessons learned. </p>
<p>Cities that have not yet started need to begin planning and preparing for climate change. The good news is that many urban leaders are committed to meeting these challenges, and there is a great deal of knowledge that researchers can share on how to proceed. By starting to plan and invest now, cities can lead the effort to avoid dangerous climate change and adapt to a warming world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cynthia Rosenzweig is co-chair of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, co-director of the Urban Climate Change Research Network, and Chair of the Board of Trustees for the Climate Museum. She has received external funding, government funding, and foundation grants for her research on climate change and cities.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Solecki is co-Chair of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, co-Director of the Urban Climate Change Research Network, and a board member of the New York State Chapter of the Nature Conservancy. He receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p>Hundreds of cities worldwide have pledged to act against climate change. New York City’s experience rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy offers useful lessons about making urban areas more resilient.Cynthia Rosenzweig, Senior Research Scientist, NASAWilliam Solecki, Professor of Geography, Hunter CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/504032015-11-10T22:58:35Z2015-11-10T22:58:35ZCrisis communication: saving time and lives in disasters through smarter social media<p>As the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-17/remembering-the-blue-mountains-bushfires-one-year-on/5819100">worst bushfires</a> seen for generations in New South Wales raged across the Blue Mountains, Southern Highlands and the Central Coast two years ago, people urgently needed fast, reliable information – and many turned to their phones to get it. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/">NSW Rural Fire Service</a> was prepared with a smartphone app, <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">Fires Near Me</a>, which was downloaded almost 200,000 times. At the height of the fires, its <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nswrfs/?fref=ts">Facebook page</a> was recording more than a million views an hour.</p>
<p>A social media campaign also helped the NSW Rural Fire Service Facebook community more than double from 120,000 to 280,000, while its Twitter reach jumped from 20,000 to 37,000 followers. Crucially, this helped to alert people to danger areas and places to avoid driving near. </p>
<p>If every emergency in Australia was handled in that way, Australians would be better able to cope with disasters we face, including fires, floods and storms.</p>
<p>But our <a href="http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/crisiscommsreport.pdf">new policy report</a>, released today, shows that there’s still much more to do to consistently match the 2013 response to the NSW fires across the nation.</p>
<p>We found that while Australia is a leader in uses of social media for crisis communication within emergency management organisations, much activity is still relatively <em>ad hoc</em>, rather than being systematically embedded within, or effectively coordinated across, agencies. </p>
<p>Australia also lacks frameworks to enable agencies in one place to learn from the experiences in other parts of the country. That might not sound important – but in times of acute crisis, such disconnects between emergency agencies can cost lives. </p>
<p>Based on a three-year study on how improve social media for crisis communication, our <a href="http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/crisiscommsreport.pdf">Support Frameworks for the Use of Social Media by Emergency Management Organisations</a> report makes four key recommendations for Australia, to:</p>
<ul>
<li>Develop a national framework for best practices for social media use in crises</li>
<li>Create a national network of Australian emergency management organisations’ social media practitioners</li>
<li>Improve coordination of federal, state and local government agencies</li>
<li>Develop a federal government social media task force. </li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"393569555219755008"}"></div></p>
<h2>Disaster-ready social media</h2>
<p>The NSW Rural Fire Service is just one of a growing number of emergency management organisations around the world using social media to provide emergency warnings, promote community meetings, and use photographs shared by the public on social media to identify and act on crisis hot-spots. </p>
<p>Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter have played a crucial role in many other recent disasters, including the Christchurch earthquakes, <a href="http://www.cci.edu.au/floodsreport.pdf">the 2011 Queensland floods</a>, <a href="http://www.journalism.org/2012/11/06/hurricane-sandy-and-twitter/">Hurricane Sandy in the US</a>, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the <a href="http://social-media-for-development.org/nepal-earthquake-how-social-media-has-been-used-in-the-aftermath/">2015 Nepalese earthquake</a>. </p>
<p>Individuals, community groups and emergency management organisations have all recognised the value of sharing information and advice about rapidly unfolding disasters. Content mined from social media platforms is now being <a href="http://www.digital-humanitarians.com/">incorporated into the overall event picture</a> by emergency management organisations.</p>
<p>But Australian authorities could do better, as our report shows. </p>
<p>Institutional support for the use of social media by emergency management organisations in Australia is still variable, and often depends on the personal enthusiasm of leaders within those organisations. That’s why we need to instead establish a national framework for the use of social media in crisis communication, so that everyone learns from those leading the way, such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-21/qps-media-win-the-social-media-game-back-to-the-future/6872090">Queensland Police Service</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Twitter users can activate emergency alerts from the Queensland Police Service and others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/QPSmedia/alerts">https://twitter.com/QPSmedia/alerts</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is also an urgent need for better knowledge sharing across the many local, state, and federal organisations involved with crisis communication. So we recommend the creation of a national network of social media units within emergency management organisations, which could also oversee the development of accredited professional training options.</p>
<p>The rich experience that exists within the network could then be pooled and documented in a national resource centre. We recommend the establishment of a central coordinating office to operate the network, placed at the <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/">COAG</a> level, within the already established <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/EmergencyManagement/About-us-emergency-management/Pages/Committees-and-councils.aspx">Australia-New Zealand Emergency Management Committee</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Find out more about the best way to stay up to day on warnings and forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/">http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lessons learnt from the increasing use of social media as a key channel for crisis communication are valuable for many other forms of government communication. </p>
<p>Our report also recommends the establishment of a federal government Social Media Task Force, to explore, encourage, and develop more innovative approaches to using social media across all relevant government functions.</p>
<p>Promotion of other social media services, such as the Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/">BOM alerts</a>, would boost the community’s capacity to respond to extreme weather warnings, helping save lives and better protecting homes, businesses and belongings. </p>
<h2>Working with the public on social media</h2>
<p>Worldwide, emergency organisations’ use of social media in crisis situations is still at a relatively early stage. In that time, important advances have been made in Australia. But there is considerable scope to do even better in future.</p>
<p>As the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s director Craig Fugate has observed, successful emergency management requires working with the public as part of a team. Reflecting on the lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, <a href="http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/10/25/written-testimony-fema-house-homeland-security-subcommittee-emergency-preparedness">Fugate said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>if you wait until you know how bad something is to begin a response, you have lost time.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>After the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/october-blew-away-heat-records-for-any-month-of-any-year-bureau-of-meteorology-20151102-gkoo51.html">hottest October on record</a> in many parts of Australia, and with an El Niño event now occurring in the Pacific Rim, it is likely that we will once again see a summer of bushfires, storms, floods and cyclones.</p>
<p>Social media is not a panacea; other ways of <a href="http://www.ag.gov.au/Publications/Documents/AustraliasEmergencyWarningArrangements/Australias-Emergency-Warning-Arrangements.pdf">sharing emergency warnings</a> including radio broadcasts are still crucial. </p>
<p>But social media has become another essential way for authorities to share and discover potentially life-saving information in a disaster. If emergency organisations work together more effectively, and are better engaged with their local communities through social media before, during and after a crisis, it could prove the difference in times when every second counts.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Terry will be online for a Twitter Q&A between 4 and 5pm AEDT on Wednesday, November 11, 2015. Head over to <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ConversationEDU">Twitter</a> and join in using #AskAnExpert.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Flew receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>When disaster strikes, more people than ever are turning to social media to find out if they’re in danger. But Australian emergency services need to work together more to learn what works to save lives.Terry Flew, Professor of Media and Communications, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355352014-12-19T10:50:58Z2014-12-19T10:50:58ZMaking cities better: voluntary programs aren’t enough<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67383/original/image-20141216-14144-6wlary.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How did this roof become green? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ideonexus/4202003130/sizes/l/in/photostream/">Ryan Somma</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voluntary programs are all the rage. From ratcheting up <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/02/12/launch-cybersecurity-framework">cybersecurity</a> to fighting <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let's_Move!">obesity</a>, firms in the United States and elsewhere voluntarily make pledges to do better than governmental regulation. </p>
<p>Firms are rewarded for doing so. Governments may stall the introduction of mandatory regulation, clients may be more inclined to buy their goods, and investors may consider them a safer haven for their money.</p>
<h2>Cities: both perpetrator and victim of climate change</h2>
<p>Voluntary programs are particularly used to improve cities. Traditional building codes and zoning regulation are often <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=NoK1BAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=governance+for+urban+sustainability+and+resilience&hl=en&sa=X&ei=li6KVN_NENGA8gXw8oDAAg&ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=governance%20for%20urban%20sustainability%20and%20resilience&f=false">slow and not effective in responding to urban problems</a>. Governments, corporations and civil society groups expect that voluntary programs will do better.</p>
<p>Take climate change. Cities are responsible for <a href="http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf">30% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. This makes cities a key cause of climate change. </p>
<p>Yet, three decades of regulation requiring architects and developers to build efficient buildings have <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/PP7_Building_Codes_2013_WEB.pdf">not resulted in impressive results</a>. Buildings, and their occupants for that matter, still waste energy, water and other resources by the gallon, and produce greenhouse gasses by the megaton.</p>
<p>Climate change will also affect cities severely. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/23/climate-change-carbon-emissions-ipcc-extreme-weather">More extreme weather events</a> are expected in the near future. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy">Hurricane Sandy</a> was likely just a glimpse of things to come for city dwellers.</p>
<p>It makes sense, then, to prepare cities to such events. Increased resilience of buildings and infrastructure requires, however, enormous investments from governments – and from firms and households.</p>
<p>Because it is not certain when, where and how severely <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=xhNeobiGHJYC&printsec=frontcover&dq=six+degrees&hl=en&sa=X&ei=BV6KVOuVCsm68gXFzoHQBw&ved=0CCcQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=six%20degrees&f=false">climate change will exactly affect cities</a>, policymakers face <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/05/science/earth/05bloomberg.html?_r=0">severe opposition</a> from businesses and households when they propose mandatory upgrades of buildings and infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Voluntary programs for better cities</h2>
<p>It is because of the problems of mandating a response to climate change that the <a href="http://www.c40.org/">world’s major cities</a> have turned to voluntary programs to improve urban sustainability and resilience. They are supported by <a href="http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/ps/cud/index.html">corporations</a> and <a href="http://www.100resilientcities.org/">civil society groups</a> in doing so.</p>
<p>The expectation is that through collaboration between government, business and civil society, self regulation will be more effective than traditional governmental intervention. Globally, <a href="http://www.elgaronline.com/abstract/9781782548126.xml">a wide range of such programs</a> is now in place.</p>
<p>But is this trust in voluntary programs justified? My research finds it is not.</p>
<p>I have studied <a href="http://www.envirovoluntarism.info/">60 such programs around the world</a>. Yes, some of these have resulted in energy use reduction or improved resilience of buildings. Yet, the size of that reduction and the number of buildings whose resilience has been improved is marginal, at best.</p>
<h2>A program that looks good on the outside…</h2>
<p>One example tells it all. In 1993, the United States Green Building Council (<a href="http://www.usgbc.org/">USGBC</a>, a non-profit made up of representatives from the building industry, government and civil society groups) introduced its building certification program <a href="http://www.usgbc.org/leed">LEED</a> (Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design).</p>
<p>Building certification works a little like the energy ratings you find on your appliances at home. It helps to showcase the environmental credentials of buildings. In this respect, LEED is a simple and elegant idea: it allows for an easy comparison of a building’s environmental performance (in terms of energy, water and material use) with other buildings. </p>
<p>This makes building certification very attractive. It is easy to grasp that a Gold or Platinum certified building is somehow better than a Bronze of Silver certified one – let alone a non-certified building.</p>
<p>LEED is now in use as a standard in 135 countries and regions. Around the globe 20,000 projects have been LEED certified, in the US alone this translates into 900 million square meters (or 9.68 billion square feet) of LEED certified space. </p>
<p>LEED is <a href="http://islandpress.org/green-building-revolution">considered</a> the world’s most influential voluntary program for improved urban sustainability. The United Nations recently awarded it a <a href="http://www.usgbc.org/articles/usgbc-awarded-top-global-environmental-prize-entrepreneurial-vision-unep">top global environmental prize</a>.</p>
<h2>… but falls apart easily</h2>
<p>But what do these mind boggling numbers actually mean? The current built-up space in the United States is about 32 billion square meters (or 344 billion square feet.) Thus, at best 3% of built-up space in the United States is LEED certified. For having been in business for 20 years this is not an outstanding achievement. </p>
<p>But let’s take a closer look at what this 3% actually means. </p>
<p>The majority of LEED certificates are in the lower categories of Bronze and Silver. These are seen as <a href="http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/green-building-curmudgeon/how-cheat-leed-homes">not requiring much</a> from participants. Sometimes not more than what government regulation requires.</p>
<p><a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=qCH00bF-4MYC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">Only 6% of certificates</a> in the US are issued in the challenging Platinum category. These buildings move far beyond governmental regulation. But they represent a mere 6% of that meagre 3% coverage or 0.18% (1 in 550) of built up space in American cities. This does not constitute major impact. </p>
<h2>Voluntary regulation still a valuable part of urban governance</h2>
<p>Time and again I find marginal performance in the 60 voluntary programs that I have studied, including other certification schemes, revolving loan funds that provide funds for building retrofits, and office to office competitions that challenge office users to improve their environmental performance. Still, there are important roles for them. Three stand out.</p>
<p>First, they challenge companies to push the envelope and raise the bar of what is considered “normal” practice. LEED, for instance, <a href="http://www.mbdc.com/cradle-to-cradle/cradle-to-cradle-certified-program/certification-overview/">recognizes the use of highly innovative sustainable building materials</a> by those seeking LEED certification for their buildings. In doing so, voluntary programs stimulate innovation and the search for technological sollutions. </p>
<p>Second, they attract considerable media attention. Since 2002 the New York Times has reported 250 times on LEED. Such coverage spreads the word that highly sustainable and resilient buildings are neither more costly nor more difficult to build than conventional ones.</p>
<p>Finally, they help develop regulation that actually works. By test-driving an initiative for a number of years, governments and business can tweak and improve a voluntary program. LEED does result in Platinum certified buildings. This indicates that it is possible to meet this goal.</p>
<h2>Where next for voluntary programs?</h2>
<p>For voluntary programs to have a real impact, policymakers need to be brave and start mandating those that have proven to work. Only then will the small pockets of outstanding performance like LEED have the backing to have significant impact on cities and transform them into places that are able to combat climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeroen van der Heijden receives funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) and the Australian Research Council (ARC).</span></em></p>Voluntary programs are all the rage. From ratcheting up cybersecurity to fighting obesity, firms in the United States and elsewhere voluntarily make pledges to do better than governmental regulation. Firms…Jeroen van der Heijden, Assistant Professor of Environmental Governance, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/316802014-09-16T20:27:20Z2014-09-16T20:27:20ZClimate Council: without action, rising seas will cost us billions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59088/original/g6yfyb68-1410834231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C249%2C2217%2C1418&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's coast is famous around the world - but rising sea levels are poised to make things a lot less fun.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam J.W.C./Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” holds true for many Australians who <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026981/abstract">live on or near the coast</a>. On top of the many lifestyle amenities coastal living offers, much of the country’s crucial infrastructure (such as road and rail networks, hospitals, water treatment works and waste disposal facilities) is located along our coastline. </p>
<p>Virtually all of this infrastructure has been designed and built for a stable climate, yet we are living in a new climate system that is no longer stable. </p>
<p>Rising sea levels pose huge financial, economic and humanitarian risks, as shown by the Climate Council’s latest report, <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/coastalflooding">Counting the Costs: Climate Change and Coastal Flooding</a>. If the world ignores the problem, by mid-century rising seas could cost the world more than a trillion dollars a year as floods and storm surges hit.</p>
<h2>How much will the seas rise?</h2>
<p>Climate change is warming the oceans and increasing the flow of ice from the land into the sea. This drives up sea levels, causing coastlines to recede and making flooding more widespread. The primary cause of the 17 cm global average sea-level rise observed during the second half of the 20th century is the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf">human activities</a>. And sea level is likely to increase by <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf">0.4 to 1.0 m through the 21st century</a>. </p>
<p>Strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would keep sea-level rise towards the lower end of that range, while a business-as-usual approach to burning fossil fuels would drive it towards the upper end of the range – with potentially massive economic consequences.</p>
<h2>Coastal flooding and economic damage</h2>
<p>Coastal flooding has caused, and is projected to cause, severe damage to economies without adaptation and drastic mitigation measures. Hurricane Katrina, which hit the southern United States in 2005, caused <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1389.html">US$100 billion (A$110 billion) in damage and about 2,000 deaths</a>.</p>
<p>Seven years later, <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf">Hurricane Sandy</a> caused US$19 billion in damage to public and private infrastructure and property in New York City alone, as well as hitting other locations along the US east coast and in the Caribbean. </p>
<p>Forget about the Tom Cruise movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086200">Risky Business</a> - the recent report of the same name, <a href="http://riskybusiness.org">Risky Business: the Economic Risks of Climate Change</a>, led by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is much more apt. It starkly sets out the economic risks of climate change to the United States, including the threat of damage to coastal property and infrastructure from rising sea levels and increased storm surges. </p>
<p>The report predicts that in just over a decade, this double whammy of higher sea levels and storm surges will more than double the costs of coastal storms along the US eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico, to US$3.5 billion a year. Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy are harbingers of things to come. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Katrina: costly, in many senses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the threat of a climate-driven increase in sea level goes unabated, the projected increases in economic damage will be significant. According to a <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/documents/03_2013/risks-coastal-buildings.pdf">2011 federal government assessment</a>, more than A$226 billion (in 2008 dollars) in commercial, industrial, road and rail, and residential assets around Australia’s coasts are potentially exposed to flooding and erosion hazards if seas were to rise by 1.1 m (high end scenario for 2100). </p>
<p>In southeast Queensland, without adaptation, a current 1-in-100-year coastal flooding event would probably cause about A$1.1 billion in damage to residential buildings. With a 0.2 m rise in sea level, a similar flooding event would increase the damages to around A$2 billion, and a 0.5 m rise in sea level <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/CAF-working-papers/CAF-working-paper-6.aspx">would raise projected damages to A$3.9 billion</a>.</p>
<p>By 2050, if the threat of sea level rise is ignored, the worldwide losses from coastal flooding (and land subsidence) are projected to hit <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1979.html">US$1 trillion per year</a> – roughly the size of the entire Australian economy.</p>
<h2>Putting the squeeze on natural ecosystems</h2>
<p>Many coastal and near-shore marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass beds, may become trapped in a “coastal squeeze” as rising sea levels come up against fixed landward barriers such as seawalls and urban infrastructure. </p>
<p>Damaging these ecosystems has detrimental flow-on effects to water quality, carbon storage, and fisheries. Sea-level rise is increasing the salinity of coastal groundwater and pushing salty water further upstream in estuaries, affecting the health of salt-sensitive plants and animals. Saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels is contributing to the loss of freshwater habitats in coastal regions such as <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/documents/03_2013/kakadu-coast.pdf">Kakadu National Park</a>. Meanwhile, some corals may not be able to keep up with periods of rapid sea-level rise, which would cause reefs to “<a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-010-0189-2">drown</a>”.</p>
<p>Australia’s beautiful sandy beaches – a major attraction for Australia’s multi-billion dollar tourism industry – are at risk from coastal erosion. And it’s not just the tourism dollar that is being eroded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feeling the squeeze: many mangroves could be left with nowhere to live.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMangrove_-_Cooktown%2C_Queensland%2C_Australia.jpg">Rob and Stephanie Levy/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vulnerable communities</h2>
<p>Rising sea level is eroding the viability of coastal communities on Pacific Islands and in low-lying areas of Asia, increasing the likelihood that people will need to resettle elsewhere. Several Torres Strait Island communities live in extremely low-lying areas and already experience flooding during annual high tides. Building seawalls and raising houses can buy time, but in the long term several of these communities may face relocation. </p>
<p>A sea-level rise of 0.5-2.0 m could displace <a href="http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/RoySoc%204D%20Sea%20Level.pdf">between 1.2 million and 2.2 million people</a> from the Caribbean region and the Indian and Pacific Ocean islands, assuming that no adaptation occurs.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate change and coastal flooding are potentially huge. Rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are crucial, both in Australia and around the world, if we are to stabilise the climate and slow the seas’ rise. </p>
<p>If we don’t manage it, then being beside the seaside might turn out not to be so enjoyable after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Rice is the Research Manager of the Climate Council, an independent non-profit organisation funded by donations from the public. Its mission is to provide authoritative, expert advice to the Australian public on climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hunter received funding from the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes receives funding from the ARC for her work as an ecologist and expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. She is the Co-Director of the Climate Futures Research Centre at Macquarie University and the Director of the Biodiversity Node of the NSW Adaptation Research Hub. She is also a member of Climate Scientists Australia and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” holds true for many Australians who live on or near the coast. On top of the many lifestyle amenities coastal living offers, much of the country’s crucial infrastructure…Martin Rice, Research Manager, The Climate Council of Australia and Honorary Associate, Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie UniversityJohn Hunter, University Associate, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of TasmaniaLesley Hughes, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversityWill Steffen, Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/280662014-06-17T05:10:00Z2014-06-17T05:10:00ZAfter Sandy, New York plans to rebuild by blue-green design<p>When Hurricane Sandy struck New York in 2012, it was a brutal wake up call for the Big Apple. That call should have also been heard by the citizens of every other coastal city and those responsible for ensuring their safety – though there is little evidence that it has. </p>
<p>Sandy was the largest ever recorded Atlantic hurricane and, after Katrina, the second most costly, causing damage of <a href="http://science.time.com/2013/07/17/the-costs-of-climate-change-and-extreme-weather-are-passing-the-high-water-mark/">around US$70 billion</a> in the US alone. Hundreds of people were killed and hundreds of thousands made homeless along the storm’s path through the Caribbean, US, and Canada. But while 24 US states were affected, it was the inundation of Lower Manhattan that generated the largest shock waves. </p>
<p>The death, destruction and general havoc wreaked by Sandy laid bare the inadequacies of current approaches to coastal flood risk management, generating a storm of public outrage. Hurricane Katrina’s devastation of New Orleans in 2005 had been bad enough, but images of one of the world’s most iconic coastal cities being inundated by a storm surge despite several days advance warning were truly shocking. If it could happen to New York City, isn’t every other coastal community also at risk of catastrophic flooding? The scientific answer to that question is, of course, an emphatic <em>yes</em>. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">Rebuild by Design</a> competition held to promote radical new approaches to protecting the city has now identified six winning projects, and it’s apparent that all are substantially based on using green and blue infrastructure to provide more natural and flexible defence than concrete walls. These defences work by mimicking the natural functions of coastal wetlands, woodlands, barrier beaches and offshore reefs in sapping the energy of waves and storm surges to reduce their height and rob them of destructive strength. Between storms, they provide a wide range of habitats necessary to support diverse ecosystems, providing leisure and commercial opportunities, including lost natural resources such as fisheries and oyster beds.</p>
<p>The lesson from Sandy is that while there are good reasons why huge population centres have developed adjacent to and just a few feet above the ocean, living there involves flood risk – a risk that cannot be eliminated, but can, and must, be reduced to a level that is acceptable, or at least tolerable. This applies not only to coastal cities in the US, but to every coastal conurbation and, especially, to <a href="http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000117">Asian mega-cities</a>. Easily said, but how can this be done? </p>
<h2>Radical change is needed</h2>
<p>It won’t be through business as usual, or even incremental changes to conventional flood risk management approaches. Following the European floods of the late 1990s and early 2000s, the UK government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-flooding">Flood Foresight</a> paper reinforced the message that hard choices have to be made. It’s such a pity that, with subsequent severe flooding in Britain and elsewhere, from <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/01/12/qld-floods-brisbane-ipswich-prepare-for-worst/">Australia</a> to <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2014/04/pictures-zimbabwe-flood-victims-2014449344796777.html">Zimbabwe</a>, it seems the lesson has to be learned repeatedly and the hard way.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51205/original/fbwv2jtf-1402922429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unlike New York, New Orleans does not benefit from being home to the world’s financial capital.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_Navy_050902-N-5328N-228_Four_days_after_Hurricane_Katrina_made_landfall_on_the_Gulf_Coast,_many_parts_of_New_Orleans_remain_flooded.jpg">Gary Nichols/US Navy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The need for radical new thinking did not go unrecognised in New Orleans. But the understandable, though scientifically and socially flawed, decision to simply rebuild breached defences and devastated neighbourhoods prevailed. Proposals to re-locate communities away from highest risk areas and return the most vulnerable land to its previous role of providing natural flood protection were ignored. Even the <a href="http://www.globalgreen.org/articles/global/82">Green NOLA design competition</a> in 2006, which set out to deliver “visionary yet practical responses” to the city’s problems, lacked the backing it needed from the authorities.</p>
<h2>Good design, fit to purpose and budget</h2>
<p>But the <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">Rebuild by Design</a> competition is different to that in New Orleans. It has the backing of the <a href="http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/sandyrebuilding/rebuildbydesign">Federal Department of Housing and Urban Development</a>, which gives the winning designs a real chance of being built. The designers seem to have engaged directly with communities and business owners at risk to find solutions that are not only radical, but which reflect the preferences of the people who will live and work around them every day. </p>
<p>It is an uncomfortable truth that the level of flood defence that can be provided to a community is limited by the value of the assets at risk. The solution has to make sense economically, which is why London is protected against a one-in-a-thousand-year flood, while <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2013/dec/06/storms-floods-and-tidal-surge-devastate-the-uks-east-coast-in-pictures">Hemsby</a> on the Norfolk coast is economically undefendable.</p>
<p>In Lower Manhattan, not just densely packed public housing, iconic buildings, and infrastructure such as the subway and electricity sub-stations are at risk, but Wall Street itself. This explains why there’s substantial funding available to provide protection against another Sandy-sized surge. The winning concept for Lower Manhattan, a green design that includes parkland and a banked earth flood wall around the tip of the island named the “<a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/project/big-team-final-proposal">Big U</a>”, is costed at US$335m – a considerable sum but easily justified when compared to what’s at risk. </p>
<h2>The blue-green advantage</h2>
<p>The aim of using <a href="http://www.bluegreencities.ac.uk">blue-green infrastructure</a> in place of the old fashioned grey kind is to recreate a naturally-oriented water cycle that contributes to the amenity of the city by bringing together water and environmental management. This is achieved by combining and protecting the hydrological and ecological values of the urban landscape while providing resilient and adaptive measures to deal with flood and drought events. In this spirit, the Big U creates publicly accessible green spaces that will deliver social, economic and environmental benefits even when the defences are not keeping out storm surges, which is of course most of the time.</p>
<p>The project’s other great advantage is that it’s adaptable. Not only will it provide protection now, it also allows for a planned retreat from the coastline should that be necessary in future. This could be the case if, for example, melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet drives a larger than expected rise in sea level: unlikely, but not impossible. </p>
<p>But what about neighbourhoods not home to a global financial hub? Neighbouring communities on Staten Island and in Hoboken, New Jersey, are typical of dozens of ordinary towns and cities along the east coast affected by Sandy. While in sight of Manhattan, they are in different leagues, economically. They too were considered in Rebuild by Design, leading to five winning projects for other areas around the coasts of New York City and New Jersey, and running the total cost up to around US$1 billion.</p>
<p>According to Rebuild by Design, Staten Island merits US$60m of investment in <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/project/scape-landscape-architecture-final-proposal/">Living Breakwaters</a> and artificial reefs that provide sustainable coastal defence while restoring the valuable shoreline and marine ecosystems previously sacrificed to conventional concrete sea walls. </p>
<p>On the other hand Hoboken is envisaged as a <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/project/oma-final-proposal/">Resiliency District</a> where, by reducing the vulnerability of homes, businesses and infrastructure to flooding that cannot be prevented economically, it is hoped public-private finance will step in to support badly needed urban renewal. The initial cost of US$230m is affordable, but is just the start, and building a resilient community will require concerted, long-term investment by government and local businesses, which makes the future for Hoboken rather less secure than that of Lower Manhattan, or even Staten Island. </p>
<h2>In it for the long term</h2>
<p>The Rebuild by Design competition has produced worthy winners that address current flood risks effectively and affordably, while leaving space for adaptation to an uncertain future, recreating lost habitats and providing public green spaces of considerable socio-economic value. The winning solutions are sustainable in that they use science responsibly to conceive radical solutions that offer economic security while greening the urban landscape and restoring shoreline environments. </p>
<p>But the jury is still out on whether even these radical new approaches can deliver these benefits in ways that are socially equitable. In practice, this will depend more on good governance than creative engineering, something outside the scope of any design team. Achieving social justice in flood risk management relies on the willingness of people not just to get involved but to stay involved long after the damage of the trigger event has been repaired and the trauma, though dreadful, has passed. If Rebuilding by Design can lay the foundations for long-term community engagement in managing flood risk in New York and New Jersey it will fully deserve all the plaudits it looks likely to receive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Thorne receives funding from the EPSRC.</span></em></p>When Hurricane Sandy struck New York in 2012, it was a brutal wake up call for the Big Apple. That call should have also been heard by the citizens of every other coastal city and those responsible for…Colin Thorne, Professor, Chair of Physical Geography, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/114802013-01-21T19:31:50Z2013-01-21T19:31:50ZClimate change is everybody’s business<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19034/original/ttf4nfxc-1357618360.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As natural disasters happen more often, rising insurance premiums will force the private sector to take action on climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricane Sandy <a href="http://theconversation.com/hurricane-sandy-mixes-super-storm-conditions-with-climate-change-10388">may or may not be</a> a direct result of climate change, but what is certain is that the incidence of extreme climate events is increasing.</p>
<p>Such events are <a href="http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPM_FINAL.pdf">predicted</a> by climate models, according to the IPCC, which has warned that “a changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events”.</p>
<p>Breaking records in terms of wind ferocity, Hurricane Sandy hit land in a densely populated area on the East Coast of the US as well as devastating large parts of the Caribbean. The storm surge caused widespread flooding and damage. Not only was it a human tragedy, but property damage is likely to <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1112/how-much-will-hurricane-sandy-cost-insurance-companies.aspx#axzz2G6PJUYEI">cost</a> $50 billion. The direct costs to the insurance industry are lower, in the order of between $10 and $20 billion.</p>
<p>It should come as no surprise that with expected payouts escalating rapidly over the next few years, the insurance industry is ringing warning bells.</p>
<p>They are already too high, according to Swiss Re, which <a href="http://www.swissre.com/media/news_releases/nr_20121219_sigma_natcat_estimates_2012.html">announced</a> that “economic losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters will likely reach at least USD 140 billion in 2012”.</p>
<p>Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, published <a href="http://www.munichreamerica.com/ks_severe_weather_na_order.shtml">“Severe weather in North America”</a>, which showed that during the past thirty years of weather-related disasters there was a clear rising trend for both extreme weather events and the costs of recovery. The report also identifies the probable cause for this trend. “The view that weather extremes are becoming more frequent and intense in various regions due to global warming is in keeping with current scientific findings.” Commenting on this report, Tony Kuczinski, CEO of Munich Re America warns: “What is clearly evident when the long-term data is reviewed is that losses from weather events are trending upward.”</p>
<p>The insurance industry faces another challenge. To stay commercially viable, actuaries need to be able to accurately calculate risks. In the past, they have calculated these risks by using historical data. For climate change, such data are seldom available, and so insurers will need to rely more on climate projections and models. Although these predictors are getting more reliable, they are nowhere as accurate as required. To play it safe, actuaries are likely to use conservative estimates of climate impact, meaning insurance costs will be based on the upper boundary of potential losses. That’s more bad news for business.</p>
<p>What all this means is that climate change presents unprecedented risks that the insurance industry may not be able or willing to cover. In areas that are particularly vulnerable, some insurance companies have already started to withdraw or steeply increase their premiums. For example, Allstate, a major US insurer, <a href="http://tristansturm.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Geoforum-article-economic-crisis-and-insurance1.pdf">scaled back</a> its insurance in the Gulf region due to “unacceptable” losses following Hurricane Katrina, dropping 16,000 commercial customers in 2005.</p>
<p>As disasters caused by climate change increase in frequency and intensity, insurance will become increasingly unavailable or unaffordable.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the private sector is not paying sufficient attention. But what would happen if insurance premiums increased 50%? 100%? 200%? Companies would have the impossible choice of deciding whether to continue to accept increases in their overheads or operate without insurance (euphemistically referred to as “self-insuring). For most, either solution would not be sustainable.</p>
<p>The risk to the affordability of insurance should focus the minds of the private sector. And it should force it to revise its comfortable assumption that climate change is someone else’s problem. In fact, now is the time to realise that climate change is very much its problem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11480/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I do not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.</span></em></p>Hurricane Sandy may or may not be a direct result of climate change, but what is certain is that the incidence of extreme climate events is increasing. Such events are predicted by climate models, according…Harry Blutstein, Adjunct Professor, School of Global Studies, Social Science and Planning , RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/116262013-01-16T19:52:35Z2013-01-16T19:52:35ZSpread the word: the value of local information in disaster response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19278/original/h9h37nxk-1358313428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In many cases, first-hand accounts from citizens can be as valuable as reports from official sources.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Tony McDonough.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As dozens of bushfires continue to burn across the country (not least <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_content.cfm?cat_id=683">in New South Wales</a>) many Australians find themselves <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/crews-make-progress-on-fire-in-north-west-nsw/44648120">unable to return home</a> while many others have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-14/homes-destroyed-in-nsw-bushfire/4463136">no home to return to</a>.</p>
<p>While we all rely on the media for information about imminent threats, it’s at the local level that some of the most valuable information-gathering is being done.</p>
<p>Local communities, and especially those who are at “the first mile”, are the first responders in the case of a bushfire: the people that take immediate action when danger is imminent and that provide crucial information as the event unfolds.</p>
<p>Accessing, managing, and sharing this ground level information is indispensable in all phases of the emergency management cycle.</p>
<h2>Disaster management technology</h2>
<p>Increasingly, emergency authorities everywhere are providing warnings and updates about incidents via <a href="http://cfa.vic.gov.au/">official web sites</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/QldFireandRescueService">social media</a> accounts, and text messages.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A recent warning message on Facebook from the Queensland Fire and Rescue Service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QFRS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in emergency situations, heavy usage of communication networks may cause traffic disruptions, severely compromising the delivery of updated information.</p>
<p>One such disruption occurred on Friday January 4 when Victoria’s Country Fire Authority (CFA) <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/">website</a> and <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/fireready-app/">mobile app</a> crashed under heavy strain. (Fire Services Commissioner Craig Lapsley told Fairfax that the CFA site received more than <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/cfa-website-cant-handle-the-heat-20130105-2ca9f.html">12 million hits in 12 hours</a>.)</p>
<p>Such disruptions highlight technical glitches under huge volumes of traffic. They also highlight the fact that we often wrongly assume credible information only travels in one direction: from authorities to citizenry.</p>
<p>In the era of ubiquitous social media, linked open data, and kaleidoscopic conversations, where is the Plan B?</p>
<p>If, as Ross Bradstock <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worst-fire-season-ever-until-next-year-3452">suggested on The Conversation</a>, fire events “could also increase in environments where human exposure is greatest and most vulnerable,” locals will need to rely on locals as well.</p>
<p>The question then becomes: “Which tools are most appropriate to reinforce local networks (or to help build new ones) so local residents can improve their own preparedness and recovery?”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot from the NSW Rural Fire Service “Current Fires and Incidents” page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RFS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A team effort</h2>
<p>First responders can make a granular assessment of needs, resources to be pooled, and provide assistance to the most vulnerable or isolated people in the area.</p>
<p>Current approaches, therefore, often involve a mix of technologies (such as SMS, mobile apps and so on) and collaboration between humanitarian actors, emergency response agencies, corporations, and citizens.</p>
<p>When the end game is to save lives, collaboration is key to an effective and efficient response and can forge relationships that can continue post-response.</p>
<p>A good example is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Queensland_floods">2010–11 Queensland floods</a>. This emergency response saw a collaboration between <a href="http://esriaustralia.com.au/">Esri Australia</a>, the <a href="https://www.fire.qld.gov.au/">Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS)</a>, and citizen volunteers to develop technology that visualised, in real-time, vital information such as flood peaks, damaged property, and road closures.</p>
<p>In addition, information from social media feeds – crowdsourced tweets, Flickr photos and YouTube videos – were geolocated on the map, providing responders with another level of insight to what was happening on the ground. </p>
<p>Brisbane was under water for four days at the height of the floods. During this time the flood map received more than 3 million hits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of Brisbane with flood-affected areas overlaid. Click for larger view.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brisbane City Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The technology used for the Brisbane floods (which was developed into the <a href="http://www.esri.com/news/arcwatch/0311/graphics/power-of-vgi5-lg.jpg">Total Operational Mapping (TOM)</a> system – the solution operated with QFRS to visualise emergency data across the state), has also been used to help South Australia’s <a href="http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp">Country Fire Service (CFS)</a> volunteers and to develop bushfire prediction technology used by Western Australian emergency responders.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://firewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/">fire prediction tool</a>, developed by the University of Western Australia, predicts the path of a fire based on data such as vegetation type and condition, weather forecasts, and topography. The results are then used by emergency services to help inform preparedness activities. The data are also accessible to the public via an early-warning website.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click for larger view.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brisbane City Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from Sandy</h2>
<p>In New York, Hurricane Sandy also fuelled a crowdsourced, people-centered approach to emergency management and recovery.</p>
<p>The #OccupySandy movement, relying on the experience gathered in the days of <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/occupywallstreet">Occupy Wall Street</a>, established distribution hubs, transportation, first aid and medical supplies.</p>
<p>Participants in #OccupySandy also partnered with other organisations and platforms such as <a href="http://sahanafoundation.org/sahanas-sandy-relief/">Sahana</a> (to manage requests and the dispatch of items, meals, volunteers and so on) and <a href="https://redhook.recovers.org/">Recovers</a> (a site allowing people to offer/request assistance).</p>
<p>It might well be too early to assess the long-term impact and effectiveness of these crowdsourced, “horizontally distributed” initiatives. But such technologies will continue to empower citizens and local communities in building peer-to-peer disaster management networks that can come to the rescue when public agencies and large organisations are overwhelmed.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with <a href="http://esriaustralia.com.au/events-our-speakers/keera-pullman-ssd-109">Keera Pullman</a>, Consultant – Professional Services at Esri Australia.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11626/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marta Poblet does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As dozens of bushfires continue to burn across the country (not least in New South Wales) many Australians find themselves unable to return home while many others have no home to return to. While we all…Marta Poblet, Director of the Institute of Law and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/104922012-11-05T03:27:23Z2012-11-05T03:27:23ZA storm of stupidity? Sandy, evidence and climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17232/original/y6xffwyc-1352064501.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ignoring climate change isn't stupidity, it's ideology.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Foley/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“It’s global warming, stupid” – <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-01/its-global-warming-stupid">Bloomberg’s Businessweek cover</a> last week left little doubt about their opinion concerning “Frankenstorm” Sandy. The accompanying tweet anticipated that the cover might “<a href="https://twitter.com/Tyrangiel/status/263983816610308096">generate controversy, but only among the stupid</a>.”</p>
<p>These frank words about the Frankenstorm are perhaps long overdue in light of the general failure of American politicians <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0403-y">to show leadership</a> on this issue.</p>
<p>But is it really a matter of mere “stupidity” to deny the link between climate change and Sandy’s fury — a link that has been drawn carefully but quite explicitly by scientists around the world, <a href="http://media2.apnonline.com.au/img/media/pdf/Climate_Commission_Hurricane_Sandy_Briefing.pdf">including in Australia</a>?</p>
<p>No, it is not a matter of stupidity.</p>
<p>On the contrary, it takes considerable, if ethically disembodied, intelligence to <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2012/11/04/the-australians-war-on-science-78-2/">mislead the public</a> about the link between climate change and Sandy as thoroughly as our national “news"paper has <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate-link-to-sandy-invalid/story-fn59niix-1226509504684">done for the umpteenth time</a>. </p>
<p>It is not a matter of stupidity. It is a matter of ideology.</p>
<p>People who subscribe to a fundamentalist conception of the free market will deny climate change irrespective of the overwhelming strength of the scientific evidence. They will deny any link between climate change and events such as the unprecedented Frankenstorm Sandy, or the unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-kenya-to-texas-recent-climate-extremes-around-the-world-2824">Texas drought</a>, or the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho">unprecedented series of Derechos</a>, or the unprecedented flooding in Tennessee, or the unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/teetering-on-a-tipping-point-dangerous-climate-change-in-the-arctic-5156">Arctic melt</a>, or the unprecedented retreat of Alpine glaciers, or the unprecedented <a href="http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/lewandowskyNormalization.html">tripling of extreme weather events during the last 30 years</a>.</p>
<p>There is no longer any reasonable doubt that climate change is happening all around us. There is also no doubt that ideology is the principal driver of climate denial.</p>
<p>So what effect will Sandy have on public opinion?</p>
<p>On the one hand, the deniers will likely double down and their claims will become ever more discordant with the reality on this planet. Their denial will continue even if palm trees grow in Alaska and if storms such as Sandy — or far worse — have become commonplace.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the vast majority of people who are not in the clutches of a self-destructive ideology will likely wake up and smell the science. Even before Sandy, a <a href="http://www.eenews.net/assets/2012/10/16/document_cw_01.pdf">recent Pew poll (PDF)</a> revealed that acceptance of climate change among the American public rebounded by 10 percentage points in the last few years. There is every reason to expect that Sandy will accelerate this trend towards acceptance of the dramatic changes our planet is undergoing.</p>
<p>Much research has shown that people’s attitude towards climate change depends on specific events and anecdotal evidence. For example, people are more likely to endorse the science <a href="http://dx.doi.org/2010.1177/0956797611400913">on a hot day than on a cool day</a>, all other things being equal. Even a seemingly trivial stimulus such as a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2011.12.002">dead plant</a> in an office can enhance people’s acceptance of the science (three dead plants are even better). This human tendency to focus on scientifically irrelevant anecdotes rather than on data can be unfortunate, especially because it lends itself to exploitation by propagandists who haul out every cool day in Wagga Wagga as "evidence” that climate change is a hoax.</p>
<p>However, people’s propensity to learn from specific events rather than scientific data and graphs can also be beneficial. For example, a <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1059.html">national survey in the UK</a> revealed that people who personally experienced flooding expressed more concern over climate change and, importantly, felt more confident that their actions will have an effect on climate change. Similar data have been <a href="http://psychologyforasafeclimate.org/resources/Public%20Risk%20Perceptions..%20Responses%20to%20ClimateChange%20in%20Australia%20and%20Great%20Britain.pdf">reported in Australia</a>. Respondents who attributed salient events to climate change were found to be better adapted to climate change, they reported greater self-efficacy, and they were more concerned with climate change.</p>
<p>There is little doubt that Americans, too, will connect the dots between Frankenstorm Sandy and the reality of climate change. They will also likely recognise how <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/28/freaking-out-about-nyc-sea-level-rise-is-easy-to-do-when-you-dont-pay-attention-to-history/">drastically wrong</a> the deniers were when they shrugged off sea level rise and how it might contribute to a flooding of New York City.</p>
<p>The moment the public recognises the link between climate change and Sandy, they will clamor for action. Just like New York City’s mayor, Michael Bloomberg, when he <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2012/11/01/barack-obama-michael-bloomberg-election-2012/1674967/">endorsed President Obama</a> for re-election because he was more likely to address climate change.</p>
<p>Salient events carry a message.</p>
<p>People understand that message.</p>
<p>After all, it’s global warming, stupid.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“It’s global warming, stupid” – Bloomberg’s Businessweek cover last week left little doubt about their opinion concerning “Frankenstorm” Sandy. The accompanying tweet anticipated that the cover might “generate…Stephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/104792012-11-01T23:59:13Z2012-11-01T23:59:13ZRace to the White House: Tim Lynch, Nick Bisley<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17167/original/9xsmzb93-1351741315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Streets are covered by debris caused by Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey. How will it affect the presidential race?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Michael Reynolds</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Welcome to part nine of our Race to the White House podcast series.</p>
<p>Each week we’ll be talking to Australia’s top US experts on the ins and outs of the 2012 US presidential campaign.</p>
<p>This week, we ask whether Hurricane Sandy was the October Surprise, with University of Melbourne Senior Lecturer in American Politics, Timothy Lynch, and La Trobe Professor of International Relations, Nick Bisley.</p>
<iframe width="100%" height="166" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F65608034&show_artwork=true"></iframe>
<p><em>Podcast produced by Rachel Baxendale.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Welcome to part nine of our Race to the White House podcast series. Each week we’ll be talking to Australia’s top US experts on the ins and outs of the 2012 US presidential campaign. This week, we ask…Nick Bisley, Professor, Program Convenor, La Trobe UniversityTimothy J. Lynch, Associate Professor in Political Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/104482012-11-01T19:30:53Z2012-11-01T19:30:53ZShould we be worried about a Mormon President?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17135/original/4mhzq5wr-1351682963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mitt Romney stands to become the first Mormon President, but his religion has barely rated a mention in the campaign.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Win McNamee</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a long and dishonourable tradition of religious prejudice in American presidential elections. </p>
<p>Catholics running for office have borne the brunt. Democratic candidate Al Smith <a href="http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/when-a-catholic-terrified-the-heartland/">was subjected</a> to vicious anti-Catholic attacks when he ran in 1928: the fact that he was the son of Irish immigrants and an opponent of prohibition didn’t help his cause. John Kennedy in 1960 was similarly accused of being under the thumb of the Vatican, forcing him to give <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16920600">a speech</a> to the Ministerial Association in Houston affirming his allegiance to the American nation.</p>
<p>With just a few days to the election, we are yet to see anything like this sort of vitriol directed towards Mitt Romney. Much of the analysis suggests that, whatever the outcome on Tuesday, Romney’s Mormonism will be a negligible factor. A sign of our enlightened attitudes? Perhaps more a sign of our ignorance. No less than 32% of voters, according to an <a href="http://www.pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/2012-romney-mormonism-obamas-religion.aspx">August poll</a>, are unaware that Romney is a Mormon.</p>
<p>Another reason for the silence about Mormonism might be the assumption of an easy Obama victory. But with the polls tightening in the last few weeks, some have begun to ask: should we be worried about a Mormon President? </p>
<p>Those who are point to several things. The first, to be blunt, is the weirdness factor. New York Times columnist <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/maureendowd/index.html">Maureen Dowd</a> often lampoons Latter Day Saint (LDS) church practices, from baptising the dead, including Holocaust victims, to the famous “magic underwear” worn to protect against evil spirits. Oh, and Mormons believe that the Garden of Eden was in Jackson County, Missouri. </p>
<p>Now, we have no proof that Romney wears said “magic underwear”, or has ever participated in retrospective baptisms. But he was a high-ranking church figure: bishop of a congregation in Boston from 1981 to 1986, and then a “stake president” responsible for some 4000 members. </p>
<p>More troubling perhaps is the suspicion that President Mitt might take orders from Mormon headquarters in Salt Lake City. An <a href="http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/election2012/6370/mitt_romney%E2%80%99s_best-known_mormon_critic_tells_it_all._one_last_time.__%7C_election_2012_%7C">interview</a> with Judy Dushku, a member of Bishop Romney’s congregation in Boston, has fuelled this. Referring to Romney’s pro-choice stance on abortion while Governor of Massachusetts, Dushku claims that Romney told her: “in Salt Lake, they told me it was okay to take that position in a liberal state”. </p>
<p>Of course, America has never had a Mormon President before (though several have tried). But the record of the Utah legislature is not encouraging. As D. Michael Quinn <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/mormon-politicians-lds-church-romney">argues</a> in a recent Vanity Fair article, many legislators there pay close attention to the wishes of the governing body of the LDS, the First Presidency. Quinn writes that in 2008, the LDS Church’s Deseret News announced:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Before each general session [of the Utah Legislature], GOP and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate sit down separately with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints Special Affairs Committee, a group made up of Church general authorities, Church public relations officials, and their lobbyists, to discuss any item on the minds of both legislators and Church leaders.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Romney has at various times affirmed his independence. In 2007, he channelled John Kennedy when he <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=3961048&page=1#.UJECu2fuqSo">told</a> the American public: “if I am fortunate to become your president, I will serve no one religion, no one group, no one cause, and no one interest”. </p>
<p>For its part, the LDS publicly advises its faithful to choose the best candidate, regardless of party affiliation.</p>
<p>Defenders of Romney also point to the number of Democrat Mormons. In fact, the highest-ranking Mormon in American politics is Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, and a Democrat. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1083&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1083&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17136/original/m2wgcjz7-1351684604.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1083&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President John F. Kennedy faced persecution for his Roman Catholic beliefs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, the history of Mormon voting also <a href="http://www.salon.com/2012/02/04/a_mormon_frontlash_for_romney/">suggests</a> something less than a tightly-controlled political machine. Utah voted four times for Franklin Roosevelt, despite then-LDS leader Heber J. Grant denouncing him as a socialist.</p>
<p>In the end, the notion of a direct line between Salt Lake City and a Romney Oval Office seems ludicrous. Why would the First Presidency need to call? President Romney is unlikely to do much that would upset the LDS. Whether on social issues, taxes or the role of government, 2012-version Romney is back in the fold.</p>
<p>The pity is that Romney has largely avoided the issue as there might have been a positive narrative to craft. As Stephanie Mencimer <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/10/mormon-experience-may-shape-romneys-disaster-policy">argues</a> in Mother Jones, Mormons have responded with admirable energy and solidarity to natural disasters in Utah. As the east coast cleans up after Hurricane Sandy, this might have been an appealing message. But in failing to speak, candidate Romney has left many wondering, once again, what sort of president he might be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Verhoeven does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a long and dishonourable tradition of religious prejudice in American presidential elections. Catholics running for office have borne the brunt. Democratic candidate Al Smith was subjected to…Tim Verhoeven, Lecturer in Modern History, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/103182012-10-31T20:09:43Z2012-10-31T20:09:43ZAfter the deluge, what hope the politics of climate response?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17125/original/rngjsgdp-1351654467.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The new normal? … Climate change will be at the forefront of discussion in the weeks following Hurricane Sandy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wandering the World/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>I am writing with Hurricane Sandy having brought devastation to New York and the East coast of the United States.</p>
<p>Much has been written on the politics of climate change. But until a few days ago, a severe weather event affecting the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-sandy-could-be-the-october-surprise-of-the-2012-presidential-election-10425">Presidential poll</a> in the world’s largest economy and second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, would have been regarded as creative fantasy or another average Hollywood script.</p>
<p>And yet that is the situation now. In August 2005, <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/katrina.html">Hurricane Katrina</a> led to losses of $US125 billion: the costliest event ever recorded in the US. It was also the deadliest single storm event, claiming 1,322 lives. Sandy doesn’t come close to those statistics, yet she has halted an election campaign, shut down a major global city and stopped trading on the New York Stock Exchange for two days.</p>
<p>In the autumn of 2005 when working at Downing Street on climate and sustainability, I spent four days north of New York with a group of scientists and business leaders concerned with the global climate problem. It was no hurricane, but while I was there the rain didn’t stop. At the conference I met a senior executive working with <a href="http://www.munichre.com/en/group/portrait/default.aspx">Munich Re</a>, one of the two largest re-insurance companies. An actuary by training, he wasn’t the type of person swayed by emotion or any environmentalist requests to save the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17116/original/dqvy9gqw-1351651327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insurance companies have noticed the increasing frequency of devastating weather events, and now adjust pricing accordingly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">rsgray16/Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Re-insurers rigorously analyse the frequency and loss trends of different perils from an insurance perspective. They <a href="http://www.munichre.com/app_pages/www/@res/pdf/media_relations/press_releases/2012/2012_01_04_munich_re_natural-catastrophes-2011_en.pdf">calculate and assess the risk</a>, and advise on premiums accordingly. He had little interest in the political battles with sceptics and those denying basic climate science. He said he wasn’t qualified to understand the policy responses required. Having assessed the data it was clear to him that as the atmosphere warms, the relationships between ocean currents, ice caps, and atmospheric pressure become more turbulent. The weather turns more unpredictable.</p>
<p>In looking out of the window at the torrential rain all I saw were damp autumn leaves. But for him, the constant rain demonstrated the probability of future events that Munich were most fearful of: a pattern of severe storms tracking up the east coast to New York, New Jersey and Washington DC. Not the big “doomsday” scenario, but what Al Gore describes as an unstable series of climatic events that become “the new normal”.</p>
<p>Sandy is not some bolt out of the blue. It is the kind of event that insurers have been across for a while. And as the science, impacts and costs of global climate change become more clear and the risks more real, the next meeting of the world’s climate negotiators will <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/doha_nov_2012/meeting/6815.php">take place in Doha</a> at the end of the month.</p>
<p>Before the meeting <a href="http://unfccc.int/secretariat/executive_secretary/items/1200.php">Christiana Figueras</a>, the diplomat charged with leading the <a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, was in Australia last week. With a carbon price in place and potentially powerful institutions such as the <a href="http://www.cefcexpertreview.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm">Clean Energy Finance Corporation</a> in the process of being established, Australia is a place of great interest.</p>
<p>Figueras is a seasoned United Nations professional: highly intelligent, committed, knows the system backwards, and feisty. I sat next to her at a private lunch convened by the Clean Energy Council. She enthusiastically described the growth in the regulation of carbon with more than 30 emissions trading schemes now in operation. This is indeed positive, but sadly few, if any, can yet demonstrate a price that will come close to de-linking economic growth from emissions growth</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/17115/original/2qwpjb8v-1351651311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chatham House, London/Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If only the politics of carbon pricing worked as well as the economic principles. And with the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-deal">failure of Copenhagen</a> to fulfil even the most modest expectations built up following the rise in public, business and political consciousness, there is currently no appetite to take the lead internationally on climate change.</p>
<p>Figueras sees this lack of momentum and argues it must be accelerated through three mutually re-enforcing dynamics:
- government and business working in tandem
- an understanding that a burden-sharing approach must be replaced with an international race to lead in low emissions energy and infrastructure
- an end to the logjam that pits the rapidly developing economies against those that have achieved their high carbon development already.</p>
<p>On these criteria there is cause for optimism. The first is latent. There are notable exceptions, but business responses to climate change have waned and remain more about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenwash-a-critical-expos-highlights-need-for-action-10133">need for conspicuous concern</a> rather than achieving measurable reductions.</p>
<p>The second is very much underway. <a href="http://www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/G-20Report-LOWRes-FINAL.pdf">According to Bloomberg</a>, in 2004 only $US34 billion was invested in clean energy globally. In 2011 the figure was $280 billion. That is a more than 800% increase. Last year was the first when new investment in clean energy overtook investment in coal and gas.</p>
<p>On the third, new alliances have been formed between India, China, and Brazil. For them low carbon has the potential to be a massive potential source of competitive advantage over coming decades.</p>
<p>Figueras is impressive. I disagreed with little that she said. She recognises that progress cannot come from the top down, or just the bottom up, but through the actions of multiple State and other players working together.</p>
<p>Yet she believes heads of state must be kept away from the negotiations. Certainly, the Copenhagen experience cannot be repeated: leaders turning up to make speeches and rehearse positions. But for the international agreement that this problem demands to ever be reached, heads of state must be involved. Decisions that have implications for global economic, energy, transport, and trade policy will not be taken by negotiators, no matter how deft and able, working for environment ministers.</p>
<p>Heads of state won’t be in Doha. The timing and the place is wrong. But for the international response to move from flirtation with the problem to putting in place the rules that might temper the scenarios that my friend at Munich Re continues to work on, they simply must be around the table.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Rowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>I am writing with Hurricane Sandy having brought devastation to New York and the East coast of the United States. Much has been written on the politics of climate change. But until a few days ago, a severe…Nick Rowley, Research Fellow, Institute for Democracy and Human Rights, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/104142012-10-31T03:48:17Z2012-10-31T03:48:17ZLosing higher ground: hurricanes and sea level rise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/17108/original/ykcsnj9b-1351645877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New Jersey was hit hard by the storm surge.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Reynolds/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As I write this, the worst coastal flooding effects from Hurricane Sandy’s attack on the densely populated regions of the US northeast are almost over. Even so, the effects have been significant: record coastal inundation in lower Manhattan and flooding of many subway lines, leading to the greatest disaster in the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/nyregion/subways-may-be-shut-for-several-days-after-hurricane-sandy.html?hp&_r=0">history of the subway system</a>.</p>
<p>The impact of Hurricane Sandy has been great. The bad news is that in the future, the impact of a similar storm would be even greater, due to the projected sea level rise in this region caused by global warming.</p>
<h2>How Sandy hit so hard</h2>
<p><strong>Unusual meteorological conditions:</strong> Sandy is occurring quite late in the hurricane season. It is certainly not unheard of for hurricanes (severe tropical cyclones as they known in the Australian region) to occur in the Atlantic in late October, but they are much less frequent at this time of year than during the peak of the season in August and September.</p>
<p><strong>Sandy’s track:</strong> Normally at this time of year, storms head out to sea after approaching the US east coast, but instead Sandy made a left turn and struck the coast of southern New Jersey. This was likely caused by its interactions with other meteorological systems already present over the northeast of North America. Although this track was unusual, it had been <a href="https://theconversation.com/blow-by-blow-why-hurricane-forecasts-are-improving-10435">predicted by US meteorologists</a> as at least possible since last Friday, when the storm was still well south of the US in the Bahamas.</p>
<p><strong>The location:</strong> Sandy affected some of the most densely populated and heavily built-up areas of the United States. As a result, the potential for damage was great, simply because there is a lot of expensive infrastructure there that is located in low-lying areas close to the coast.</p>
<p><strong>The storm itself:</strong> As it approached the New Jersey shore, Sandy was no longer an intense hurricane, and indeed started to lose its tropical shape as it was affected more and more by the intense temperature gradients and associated wind fields typical of mid-autumn in this region. Compared to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml">Cyclone Yasi</a> that struck Australia’s northeast coast last year, Sandy had much weaker winds. </p>
<p>Sandy was a very large hurricane, though, much larger than normal, with hurricane-force winds extending a couple of hundred kilometres on either side of its centre. Thus it was able to push elevated water levels onshore over a very large region, included New York City and its vulnerable and densely built-up lower Manhattan region. </p>
<p>Sandy was a rare event and indeed the media are calling it a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/us/hurricane-sandy-barrels-region-leaving-battered-path.html?_r=0">once-in-a-generation storm</a>, which is an accurate description. Damaging hurricanes, though, have occurred before along the US east coast.</p>
<h2>Storms and rising sea levels</h2>
<p>In 1938, a powerful storm <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/02/nyregion/02towns.html">smashed into Long Island</a>, east of New York City, with winds more powerful than Sandy’s. On Long Island and in New England, it killed hundreds and caused hundreds of millions of dollars damage. Other well-documented, powerful hurricanes affected New York City in the nineteenth century. So storms like Sandy <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-sandy-the-new-normal-10408">will happen again in the future</a>. When they do, their effects will be increased by sea level rise.</p>
<p>Sea level rise is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/improving-sea-level-projections-6815">highly confident prediction</a> of climate change research. It is clear from what we know about the climate system that the sea is now rising and this will continue and indeed accelerate into the future. </p>
<p>What is not certain is how fast this acceleration will occur. This uncertainty is largely due to our lack of precise knowledge regarding how quickly land ice is <a href="https://theconversation.com/weigh-in-reveals-antarcticas-losing-190-million-tonnes-a-day-10254">melting in Antarctica</a>. Without going into details, the upshot is that New York City could be facing a one metre sea level rise by 2100.</p>
<p>It is reasonably accurate to assume that this sea level rise can just be added on top of any coastal flooding caused by a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclone flooding is caused by strong winds pushing extra water onto the coastline, known as storm surge. During the height of Hurricane Sandy, in lower Manhattan a storm surge of 4.2 metres above the typical low tide mark was recorded. </p>
<p>In 2100, that would become 5.2 metres due to sea level rise. More importantly, quite modest hurricane surges in today’s climate would become considerably more significant in a world with higher sea levels. </p>
<p>Luckily, New York City has considerable adaptive capacity to deal with these possible future risks. The same cannot be said about many poorer, vulnerable locations elsewhere in the world. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Walsh receives funding from numerous Australian sources, including both government and private industry.</span></em></p>As I write this, the worst coastal flooding effects from Hurricane Sandy’s attack on the densely populated regions of the US northeast are almost over. Even so, the effects have been significant: record…Kevin Walsh, Reader, School of Earth Sciences, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.