tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/independents-3383/articlesIndependents – The Conversation2022-11-07T13:33:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933782022-11-07T13:33:50Z2022-11-07T13:33:50ZHow a divided America, including the 15% who are ‘MAGA Republicans,’ splits on QAnon, racism and armed patrols at polling places<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493589/original/file-20221104-15-ltg96s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C6%2C1361%2C720&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Arizona election officials released this image as one example of armed people watching ballot drop boxes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItGCRaEN69o">Maricopa County Recorder's Office via CBS News</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>There is much talk about political violence in America these days. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_HTdGmgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Garen Wintemute</a>, a University of California, Davis, scholar who researches firearm violence, has recently led a nationwide survey research project on political violence. The Conversation U.S. asked him for a portrait of what Americans think about political violence as the midterm elections approach.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the landscape of political violence in the US today?</h2>
<p>There have been <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-rise-of-political-violence-in-the-united-states/">several studies</a> in recent years, with <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/624156/how-civil-wars-start-by-barbara-f-walter/">different designs, methodologies</a> and measures of violence. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-preparing-war-an-expert-civil-wars-discusses-where-political-extremists-are-taking-this-country/">expert assessment</a> is that taking them as a whole, it’s clear that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/11/gop-political-violence-militias-jan-6-democratic-breakdown/">in general</a> Americans’ support for <a href="https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/after-the-ballots-are-counted-conspiracies-political-violence-and-american-exceptionalism/">political violence</a> <a href="https://www.covidstates.org/reports/americans-views-on-violence-against-the-government">has been increasing</a>.</p>
<p>Some of that research has found that Republicans’ support for political violence is <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo163195227.html">growing faster</a> than it is among Democrats.</p>
<p>In recent years, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2021/domestic-terrorism-data/">most political violence</a> has <a href="https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/new-adl-data-far-right-extremists-responsible-for-overwhelming-majority-of">emanated from the right</a>. But many of those studies have not asked respondents whether they are personally willing to engage in violence.</p>
<p>In two studies in late 2022, we examined people’s general thoughts about political violence and some aspects of their willingness to engage in it themselves. One of the studies looked at <a href="https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/n9b36">Americans across the political spectrum</a>. The other focused on Republicans, with specific attention on <a href="https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/q9ect">people we classified as “MAGA Republicans</a>,” whom we defined as people who had voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and agreed either strongly or very strongly that the 2020 election had been stolen from him.</p>
<h2>How are Americans divided politically?</h2>
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<p>In both of our studies, we asked respondents for their general party affiliation, offering them five initial options: “Republican,” “Democrat,” “Independent,” “Another party” or “No preference.” </p>
<p>People who answered “Republican” or “Democrat” were asked whether they characterize themselves as “strong” or “not very strong” supporters of that party. People who answered “Independent,” “Another party” or “No preference” were asked which major party they believe they are closer to, and we described those people as “leaning” to one party or the other.</p>
<p>In our study focusing on Republicans, we pulled out those who voted for Trump in 2020 and believed the election was stolen into a separate group we called MAGA Republicans.</p>
<p>In general, we found that 55% of Americans do not identify with the Republican Party and 45% of them do. But we also found that 15% of Americans – about one-third of all Republicans – are MAGA Republicans.</p>
<h2>What percentages of these groups hold extreme or racist beliefs?</h2>
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<p>We found that Republicans in general were more likely than Democrats to hold views seen as extreme or racist by experts. For instance, we asked about the widely debunked <a href="https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2021/embedded-within-a-mass-delusion-the-challenge-of-reporting-on-qanon/">QAnon mass delusion</a> that the U.S. is controlled by a group of <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/qanon-most-dangerous-multiplatform-game/">Satan-worshipping pedophiles</a>.</p>
<p>Just over a quarter of MAGA Republicans said they agreed strongly or very strongly with the QAnon beliefs. Another quarter of them said they somewhat agreed with those views. That was a significant departure even from other Republicans, even strong ones – among whom roughly 80% said they disagree with QAnon beliefs.</p>
<p>But when it came to racist views, such as the idea that anti-white discrimination “is as big a problem as discrimination against Blacks and other minorities” and that “native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants” in the U.S., most Republicans agreed to some degree.</p>
<h2>What percentages of these groups see political violence as likely to occur?</h2>
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<p>On several fronts, Republicans tend to expect political violence more than Democrats, including anticipating “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” and even expecting that a civil war will erupt “in the next few years.”</p>
<p>More MAGA Republicans hold these views than other Republicans.</p>
<h2>What percentages of these groups endorse political violence for at least some objectives?</h2>
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<p>To more deeply understand people’s views about potential political violence, we offered them 17 different political objectives and asked, in a series of questions, whether achieving each objective would justify violence. </p>
<p>Some of them were openly partisan objectives we would expect people on the political right to support, while others were politically neutral, or more generally supported by people on the political left. </p>
<p>These were the 17 objectives: </p>
<ul>
<li>To return Donald Trump to the presidency this year</li>
<li>To stop an election from being stolen</li>
<li>To stop people who do not share my beliefs from voting</li>
<li>To prevent discrimination based on race or ethnicity</li>
<li>To preserve an American way of life based on Western European traditions</li>
<li>To preserve the American way of life I believe in</li>
<li>To oppose Americans who do not share my beliefs</li>
<li>To oppose the government when it does not share my beliefs</li>
<li>To oppose the government when it tries to take private land for public purposes</li>
<li>Stop voter fraud</li>
<li>Stop voter intimidation</li>
<li>Reinforce the police</li>
<li>Stop police violence</li>
<li>Stop illegal immigration</li>
<li>Keep borders open</li>
<li>Stop a protest</li>
<li>Support a protest</li>
</ul>
<p>Almost half of strong Republicans and more than one-third of less dedicated Republicans said violence would be justified to achieve at least one of those goals. By contrast, roughly a quarter of Democrats said so. </p>
<p>And 6 in 10 MAGA Republicans said at least one of those goals justified violence.</p>
<h2>What percentages of these groups predict they will be armed in circumstances where they view political violence as justified?</h2>
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<p>Large majorities of Americans of all political stripes say they do not expect to be armed with a gun, even in situations when they view political violence as justified. And almost none of them – even among MAGA Republicans – expect to threaten someone with a firearm.</p>
<h2>What percentages of these groups believe there should be armed patrols at polling places?</h2>
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<p>The vast majority of Americans oppose the idea that armed citizens should patrol polling places on Election Day. The majority of MAGA Republicans object to it, but just under 40% of them say it either should happen or should be considered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garen Wintemute receives funding from the Joyce Foundation, the California Wellness Foundation, and the Heising-Simons Foundation. The California Firearm Violence Research Center, which he directs, is funded by the State of California.</span></em></p>What deep-dive polls reveal at the political landscape of America as the 2022 midterm election approaches.Garen Wintemute, Distinguished Professor of Emergency Medicine; Director, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1918362022-11-01T12:47:52Z2022-11-01T12:47:52ZAbortion is not influencing most voters as the midterms approach – economic issues are predominating in new survey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492595/original/file-20221031-7897-9dl1xs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C40%2C2295%2C1742&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Amy Cox, a Democratic candidate running to be an Ohio state representative, speaks with a potential voter on Oct. 23, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/amy-cox-democratic-candidate-for-ohio-state-representative-speaks-a-picture-id1244280877?s=612x612">Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the Supreme Court’s June 2022 <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">Dobbs v. Jackson</a> decision overturning the <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">constitutional right to abortion</a>, election observers have raised questions about whether and how the issue of abortion will influence the outcome of the November midterm elections. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/press-release/abortion-access-rises-as-a-voting-issue-and-motivator-especially-among-democrats-and-reproductive-age-women-but-inflation-continues-to-dominate-as-americans-worry-about-bills/">early survey evidence</a> from May to July suggested a surge in support among Democrats and reproductive-aged women for abortion rights. So too did the results from an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kansas-abortion-vote-recount-e874f56806a9d63b473b24580ad7ea0c">August 2022</a> Kansas referendum on abortion, where voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have banned abortion. Democrats also overperformed compared with 2020 – that is, earning a higher proportion of the vote than they did in the 2020 election – in a series of congressional <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/24/democrats-special-election-momentum/">special elections</a> following Dobbs. </p>
<p>More recent <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx">evidence</a>, however, suggests that voter concern <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-wages-employment-cost-index-q3-2022-11666925660">over inflation</a> may trump abortion as a motivating issue.</p>
<p>We are a multi-university team of social scientists that has been <a href="https://www.covidstates.org">regularly polling</a> Americans in all 50 states since April 2020. Four times over the past six months we surveyed 22,000 to 27,000 Americans – in March and April, June and July, August and September, and then in more detail in October 2022 – to explore the likely effects of abortion politics on voter attitudes and behavior. </p>
<p>Following the Dobbs decision, we found no clear evidence of a change in Americans’ preferences for which party should control the House and Senate after the election. We conducted this research using generic ballots – polls that ask people about their political party preference, but not specifically about which candidate they support. </p>
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<h2>The Dobbs effect – or lack thereof</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/9/4/23333329/roe-voter-registration-dobbs-midterms-democrats">evidence suggests</a> that women initially responded more strongly than men to the Dobbs decision. Young women, in particular, grew more likely to register to vote. </p>
<p>Yet, when we separately assess men and women, we see little evidence of a post-Dobbs spike in preferences for Democrats in the generic ballot among either men or women. While men hover near a 50-50 split in preferences between Republicans and Democrats, majorities of women across each survey wave prefer Democrats to Republicans. The consistency over time suggests that the Dobbs decision did not notably increase preferences for Democrats.</p>
<p>But what about turnout? Would the Dobbs decision prompt more people to cast a ballot?</p>
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<p>Among Republicans and independents, self-reported likelihood of voting appears relatively unaffected by the Dobbs decision.</p>
<p>We did see a small – 1.6 percentage points – spike among Democrats reporting that they were “very likely” to vote immediately after the Dobbs ruling. The increase was twice as large – 3.2 points – among Democratic women. However, both numbers returned to their pre-Dobbs levels in our August-September survey.</p>
<p>In our October survey, the likelihood of voting rose across all groups, presumably due to a combination of the rising intensity of election campaigns and the inclusion of respondents who report already having voted.</p>
<p>When we break likelihood of voting out by gender, we do see a jump among women, across parties, reporting that they were very likely to vote immediately after the Dobbs decision – rising from 54.8% to 58% of Democratic women from early June, just prior to Dobbs, to late June, just after the Dobbs decision. </p>
<p>Just below 58% of Republican women, meanwhile, said that they were very likely to vote prior to Dobbs, rising to 60% immediately following the Dobbs announcement. And 29.9% of independent women said that they would vote prior to Dobbs, up to 32.5% following the announcement of the ruling. </p>
<p>However, once again, the bounce appears fleeting. </p>
<p>By August, all three partisan subgroups had reverted to pre-Dobbs levels of vote intention. Among men, in turn, we see no bounce at all.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white woman with brown hair holds up a Rosie the Riveter poster that says 'Vote yes for life'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492594/original/file-20221031-8081-frgo43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kentucky Right to Life Executive Director Addia Wuchner attends a rally to add a permanent ban on abortion to Kentucky’s constitution on Oct. 1, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/kentucky-right-to-life-executive-director-addia-wuchner-a-former-picture-id1243948821?s=612x612">Stefan Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dobbs or no Dobbs</h2>
<p>We also included an experiment in the October survey wave to explore whether prompting people to think about the Dobbs decision would affect their vote preferences or likelihood of voting. We showed a random subset of survey participants a paragraph about the Dobbs decision, while the rest of the survey respondents did not receive a paragraph about Dobbs. We then asked how likely they were to vote in the 2022 midterm elections and how much abortion mattered for their candidate choice in the election.</p>
<p>We find that survey respondents who read about Dobbs - that is, who we primed to think about it - were no more or less likely to say they intended to vote than those who did not read about Dobbs. </p>
<p>They were also no more or less likely to say that abortion was important for their choice of candidates. This pattern emerges regardless of party, gender or personal importance of the abortion issue. </p>
<p>Perhaps most important, the results from our experiment are consistent with the trends over time that we reported above, further suggesting that the Dobbs decision may not increase turnout or substantially alter vote preferences.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson decision may have initially mobilized some voters in June and July, particularly women, but its effects appear to have diminished when we asked Americans about their intentions to vote again in August and October.</p>
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<h2>Small margins could change the game</h2>
<p>Notwithstanding our survey results, it remains possible that abortion may affect the 2022 midterm results.</p>
<p>Elections, especially in swing states, are <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Congressional_margin_of_victory_analysis">often decided</a> by very small margins, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-021-09767-x">potentially too small to be detected in surveys</a>. A difference of half a percent in vote shares caused by abortion attitudes, for instance, could sway the result of a consequential election.</p>
<p>When we asked Americans to name the most important problems facing the nation in our October survey, overall, abortion was not among the top five issues mentioned, with inflation, the economy, crime and violence, health care and climate change ranking as more important.</p>
<p>However, abortion remained notably important among Democrats – mentioned by nearly 24% of those we polled – and women – mentioned by nearly 19%. </p>
<p>So, while we cannot offer firm predictions regarding the effect of the Dobbs decision on the 2022 elections, and we found no clear evidence of such an effect, the possibility remains that abortion could motivate enough voters to influence outcomes in at least some key races.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew A Baum has received funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alauna Safarpour, Jonathan Schulman, and Kristin Lunz Trujillo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New surveys carried out by a team of social scientists find no evidence that Democrats, Republicans and independents are more likely to vote because of the Supreme Court’s abortion decision in June.Matthew A Baum, Marvin Kalb Professor of Global Communications & Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolAlauna Safarpour, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard Kennedy SchoolJonathan Schulman, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northwestern UniversityKristin Lunz Trujillo, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902482022-09-08T08:49:58Z2022-09-08T08:49:58ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Simon Holmes à Court on ‘community independents’ and two state elections<p>Simon Holmes à Court and his Climate 200, the body that provided funding for “teal” and some other independent candidates who promoted action on climate change, integrity and women’s issues, had great success at the federal election. But will community candidates become a big force in November’s Victorian poll and the March NSW election? </p>
<p>In this podcast, Holmes à Court talks about the “enthusiasm” from the community independents movement about the desertion by voters of the major parties, and the mobilisation already under way in various areas to get behind candidates. But he stresses there will be new challenges to face in the two state campaigns. A major one is the more restrictive arrangements around funding, compared with the federal election.</p>
<p>Community independents in the state elections will target frustrations in their local areas, but climate change and integrity will be strong themes of their campaigns. “In Victoria, our polling shows that climate is very high [in voters’ minds] and people are frustrated with the pace of change in some of the Andrews government’s actions there - we have the dirtiest grid in the country and a less certain plan for phasing out coal than New South Wales, for example”. </p>
<p>Federally, teal candidates ran in Liberal seats. In Victoria, where there is a long-time Labor government, can we expect to see strong community independents also in Labor seats? </p>
<p>“There is talk in Victoria that there might be some independents or minor parties challenging more in the outer suburbs and putting a lot of heat on the Andrews government, responding to the frustrations in those communities.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Simon Holmes à Court discusses Climate 200, the VIC & NSW state elections and the teals.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1847552022-06-28T02:10:52Z2022-06-28T02:10:52ZFinal 2022 election results: Coalition routed in cities and in Western Australia – can they recover in 2025?<p>Some links in this article refer to the Australian Electoral Commission results. These links no longer work; archived AEC results are <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDefault-27966.htm">here</a>.</p>
<p>At the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals">May 21 federal election</a>, Labor won 77 of the 151 House of Representatives seats (up eight since 2019 when adjusted for redistributions), the Coalition won 58 seats (down 18), the Greens four (up three) and all Others 12 (up seven). This was a Labor majority of three.</p>
<p>The 2019 election result was Coalition 77 seats and Labor 68, but the ABC adjusted for Labor gaining a seat from the Coalition from redistributions. Craig Kelly’s defection from the Coalition to the UAP was not factored in, so <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/hugh">Hughes</a> was not a gain for the Coalition.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals">Primary votes</a> were 35.7% Coalition (down 5.7%), 32.6% Labor (down 0.8%), 12.2% Greens (up 1.8%), 5.0% One Nation (up 1.9%), 4.1% UAP (up 0.7%), 5.3% independents (up 1.9%) and 5.1% others (up 0.2%).</p>
<p>Despite losing the primary vote by 3.1%, Labor won the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">national two party count</a> by a 52.1-47.9 margin, a 3.7% swing to Labor. This is obtained by recounting all seats that did not finish as Labor vs Coalition contests between those parties to ascertain the preference between Labor and Coalition of all of Australia’s voters.</p>
<p>With the combined major party primary votes down to just over 68%, and 16 seats won by crossbenchers, some would argue that the two party vote is not relevant anymore. I think it is still relevant as a basic measure of whether more Australians preferred a Labor government or a Coalition one, and of how left or right-leaning seats and states were at the election.</p>
<p>The tables below show the number of Labor seats for each state and nationally, the percentage of Labor seats, the number of net Labor gains, the Labor two party percentage, the two party swing to Labor, the number of Other seats (this includes Greens), the number of Other gains and the number of Coalition seats.</p>
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<p>The two party swing to Labor in Western Australia was a massive 10.6%, far larger than in any other state.</p>
<h2>Seat changes occurred in cities</h2>
<p>All Labor, Greens and independent gains occurred in Australia’s five mainland capital cities, and the large majority were in inner city seats. In regional seats, there were swings to the Coalition in Lyons, Gilmore and Lingiari, which made these seats close holds for Labor.</p>
<p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has a table of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateByDemographic-27966.htm">two party swings</a> by seat demographic. Negative swings are to Labor, positive to the Coalition. This table has a 5.6% two party swing to Labor in inner metro seats, 3.6% in outer metro, 2.5% in provincial and 2.3% in rural seats. </p>
<p>In Queensland, there was a particularly marked difference between inner metro (an 8.7% two party swing to Labor) and other seat categories (between a 3.1% and 4.4% swing).</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47952">Ben Raue</a> has charts of the difference between each seat demographic and the national two party vote since 1993. He says the inner metro difference in Labor’s favour is the highest ever in these charts, while the difference between rural seats and nationally is the highest in the Coalition’s favour.</p>
<p>Before the election, I anticipated that the best swings to Labor would occur in the cities. Australian cities with over 100,000 population have 68% of our overall population. Winning rural seats isn’t good enough for the Coalition in Australia.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-continuing-education-divide-eventually-favour-labor-electorally-due-to-our-big-cities-180970">Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?</a>
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<p>People with a higher level of educational attainment tend to live in inner metro seats, and they have swung towards the left in recent elections in Australia, the US and the UK. Concerns about climate change and social issues were likely important factors in inner metro seats.</p>
<h2>State result summaries</h2>
<p>In NSW, <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseSeatSummary-27966.htm">Labor gained</a> Robertson, Bennelong and Reid from the Liberals, but lost Fowler to an independent. Independents also gained Wentworth, North Sydney and Mackellar from the Liberals. The regional seat of Gilmore was held by Labor by just a 0.2% margin against the Liberals.</p>
<p>In Victoria, Labor gained Chisholm and Higgins from the Liberals, and independents gained Goldstein and Kooyong. The Liberals held Deakin by just a 0.2% margin and Menzies by 0.7% against Labor.</p>
<p>In Queensland, the Greens gained Griffith from Labor and Ryan and Brisbane from the LNP. Outside Brisbane, Labor had swings in its favour, but did not gain any seats. While Labor recovered ground from 2019’s shellacking in regional Queensland, it wasn’t enough to gain seats.</p>
<p>In WA, Labor gained Swan, Pearce, Hasluck and Tangney from the Liberals and an independent gained Curtin. The Liberals held Moore by 0.7% against Labor. Labor has WA to thank for its House majority. </p>
<p>The WA Senate result was crucial in giving Labor a friendly Senate, with Labor winning three of the six up for election, to two Liberals and one Green, a gain for Labor from the Liberals.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-labor-the-greens-and-david-pocock-will-have-a-majority-of-senators-185365">Final Senate results: Labor, the Greens and David Pocock will have a majority of senators</a>
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<p>In SA, Labor gained Boothby from the Liberals, with the Liberals holding Sturt by 0.5% against Labor.</p>
<p>Tasmania was the only state to record a two party swing to the Coalition. The Liberals had swings in their favour in the regional seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, easily retaining the first two after gaining them in 2019, and coming close to gaining Lyons, which Labor held by 0.9%.</p>
<p>In the ACT, Labor easily retained its three seats, while independent David Pocock defeated Liberal Zed Seselja in the Senate. Pocock was helped by Labor’s 67.0-33.0 two party win in the ACT, a 5.3% swing to Labor.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/act-senate-result-pocock-defeats-liberals-in-first-time-liberals-have-not-won-one-act-senate-seat-184738">ACT Senate result: Pocock defeats Liberals in first time Liberals have not won one ACT Senate seat</a>
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<p>In the NT, Labor easily retained the Darwin-based Solomon with a swing in its favour, but came close to losing the regional Lingiari, holding by 1.0% against the Country Liberals.</p>
<h2>Two party seat margins and swings</h2>
<p>The AEC has a <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-27966-NAT.htm">sortable table</a> of two party results for each seat. Ignoring crossbenchers, Labor won the two party count in 84 of the 151 seats, to 67 for the Coalition. Labor won this measure in its own 77 seats, the four Greens seats, Clark, Fowler and Mayo.</p>
<p>None of the seats gained by teal independents at this election flipped from a Coalition win to a Labor win on two party votes. Labor gained a two party majority in Brisbane, Ryan and Mayo; the first two were gained by the Greens and the last is held by Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie.</p>
<p>Labor’s best seats against the Coalition were the six seats that were Labor vs Greens contests: Cooper, Wills, Melbourne, Sydney, Grayndler and Canberra. </p>
<p>When Greens and other votes in these seats were counted between Labor and the Coalition, these six seats gave Labor between 72 and 79% against the Coalition. The best two party share in a traditional Labor vs Coalition contest for Labor was in Newcastle (68.0%).</p>
<p>With WA recording a much bigger swing to Labor than any other state, it’s not surprising that WA seats made up the top seven two party swings to Labor.</p>
<p>Greens leader Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne was the top non-WA swing to Labor at 10.1%. In 2019, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/federal-election-labor-candidate-luke-creasey-withdraws/11076194">Labor’s Melbourne candidate</a> was disendorsed after nominations closed, and this affected Greens preference flows.</p>
<p>The largest swing to the Coalition was in Fowler (8.3% swing). This was the seat Kristina Keneally lost to an independent. Other western Sydney seats, such as Blaxland, Chifley, McMahon and Watson, swung slightly to Labor, so this was a candidate effect against Keneally.</p>
<p>There were six other seats which swung more than 4% to the Coalition: in ascending order, they are Lyons, Gorton, Lingiari, Braddon, Scullin and Calwell. Gorton, Scullin and Calwell are safe Labor seats in Melbourne, and it appears there was a backlash from the Victorian Labor government’s COVID lockdowns.</p>
<p>The other three are regional seats in Tasmania and the NT. In my election maps article before the election, I said Labor could struggle to regain the Tasmanian seats of Braddon and Bass.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-are-the-most-marginal-seats-and-who-might-win-them-179845">Where are the most marginal seats, and who might win them?</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Can the Coalition recover at the next election?</h2>
<p>Once elected, independents and other parties who win seats in Australia are difficult to dislodge. For example, independent Andrew Wilkie won Clark (then named Denison) from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/deni.htm">third on primary votes</a> in 2010, but has retained it easily at subsequent elections.</p>
<p>Furthermore, while the Coalition won the two party count in all the seats won by teal independents, these seats all swung to Labor by between 1% and 10%. The lowest two party swing to Labor in a teal seat was Warringah, where Tony Abbott had deflated the Liberal vote in 2019. If the trend to the left in inner cities continues, it will be difficult for the Coalition to regain these seats.</p>
<p>While the Coalition came close to gaining three regional seats from Labor – Gilmore, Lyons and Lingiari – there are not enough regional seats in Australia for the Coalition to compensate for the losses of city seats.</p>
<p>If the Coalition is to win the next election, they will probably need to regain support in outer metro seats. I believe that in these seats the economy is of paramount importance. At this election, people in outer metro seats probably swung to Labor owing to concerns about inflation.</p>
<p>Economic conditions at the next federal election are likely to be crucial in determining how outer metro seats vote. So if the economy is lousy in three years, the Coalition will probably return to power.</p>
<p>With the massive swing to Labor in WA at this election, the Liberals will be hoping it returns to its normal place as a strongly pro-Coalition state at the next election. But while the WA swing was enhanced by COVID factors, <a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">Perth has around</a> 80% of WA’s overall population. </p>
<p>If the Liberals continue to struggle in cities, WA is likely to be more difficult than it may first appear for the Liberals to win back. Tasmania’s three northern seats are likely to be easier for the Liberals to win and hold, but Tasmania only has five seats while WA has 15.</p>
<p>With declining vote share for the major parties, it is becoming more difficult for one of them to win a majority even with our single-member system for the House. Labor has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/27/independents-say-crossbencher-staff-cuts-will-slow-down-labors-legislative-agenda">angered both House and Senate</a> crossbenchers with its proposals to cut the number of parliamentary staff each crossbencher is entitled to from four to one.</p>
<p>While Labor does not need the crossbench for a House majority in this term, they could easily need more support in the future, And Labor needs at least one non-Greens crossbencher in the Senate to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition in this term. The proposed reduction is stupid politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184755/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the Liberals continue to struggle in cities, WA is likely to be more difficult than it may first appear for the Liberals to win back.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830242022-05-21T13:25:46Z2022-05-21T13:25:46ZThe big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464610/original/file-20220521-23-tvsobd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most stunning features of the 2022 election has been the challenge from <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">teal independents</a> in Liberal seats. </p>
<p>At the close of counting on Saturday, the teal independents have polled much stronger than expected, and look to have succeeded in electing a swathe of new independents to the House of Representatives. As Liberal Party commentator Tony Barry told the ABC, “the Liberals have lost their base”. It was not a blood bath, but a “teal bath”. </p>
<p>The headline story is the success of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-21/josh-frydenberg-kooyong-monique-ryan-federal-election-2022/101079684">neurologist Monique Ryan</a> who looks poised to take the blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. But teal candidates have stormed other electorates in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Canberra.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs</a>
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<h2>The teal wave</h2>
<p>When we are talking about “teals” we are talking about the 23 independent candidates, most of them women, who have challenged traditionally Liberal-held seats or Senate spots. All have received support from fundraising organisation Climate 200. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Independent Allegra Spender casts her vote in Wentworth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464592/original/file-20220521-25-28yf2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Independent Allegra Spender casts her vote in Wentworth on Saturday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca De Marchi/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Climate 200 convener Simon Holmes a Court credited the success, particularly in inner Melbourne, to a huge volunteer effort. “This community independents movement is incredible,” he told the ABC. </p>
<h2>The results so far</h2>
<p>Counting is still continuing and it needs to be noted that high numbers of postal and pre-poll votes will favour the major parties. So we will need to watch some of these seats in coming days before the results are confirmed. </p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green has already given:</p>
<ul>
<li>North Sydney to independent Kylea Tink, defeating Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman </li>
<li>Mackellar to GP Sophie Scamps, defeating Liberal MP Jason Falinski</li>
<li>Goldstein to with former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel, defeating Liberal MP Tim Wilson. </li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1527982282291572736"}"></div></p>
<p>Along with Kooyong, business leader Allegra Spender was ahead of Liberal MP Dave Sharma in Wentworth. </p>
<p>Independents Kate Chaney in <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/local-news/perthnow-western-suburbs/all-eyes-on-curtin-as-poll-puts-independent-in-the-lead-c-6840866">Perth’s Curtin</a> and Rob Priestly in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-324.htm">regional Victoria’s Nicholls</a> were also putting up a huge fight as counting closed on Saturday. Caz Heise in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-113.htm">Cowper</a> in northern NSW was also recording a strong independent vote. </p>
<p>Other independents with Climate 200 backing were also comfortably re-elected: Zali Steggall in Warringah, Helen Haines in Indi, Andrew Wilkie in Clark and Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. </p>
<p>Taking into account the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/labors-kristina-keneally-faces-pressure-from-independent-dai-le/news-story/15078c55cab3e8d07d853f375222b9a9">likely election</a> of Dai Le – a non-Climate 200 independent candidate against Labor’s Kristina Keneally in Sydney’s Fowler – the independent numbers on the cross bench could double in size. </p>
<p>In the Senate, teal candidate David Pocock is in a close race for the second ACT Senate spot, with Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja. </p>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>These results far exceed expectations before polling day. Noting the very strong results for the Greens, particularly in Queensland, we have seen an extremely clear vote for more action on climate change, more integrity in politics and more action on gender equity. These were all central planks of their campaigns. </p>
<p>Voters who would normally have voted for a moderate Liberal, but would have been unlikely to vote Labor or Greens, were given a viable choice – and they took it with both hands.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Treasurer Josh Fydenberg adds sauce after voting in Kooyong" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464595/original/file-20220521-26-j6udx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Treasurer Josh Fydenberg adds sauce after voting in Kooyong on Saturday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In an election full of different results and surprises, this block of independents is going to markedly change the composition of the lower house. The precise nature of their role and power will be determined when we know if Labor will rule in a majority or minority. </p>
<p>These results also mean that the Liberal Party has been stripped of its moderate MPs.
Minister for Finance Simon Birmingham lamented the loss of his colleague Zimmerman on Saturday night, saying the party would have to “make up for the absence of those [moderate] voices”. </p>
<p>Birmingham also blamed the “contagion effect” of Katherine Deves’ <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/katherine-deves-backtracks-on-apology-for-comments-about-transgender-children">controversial candidacy </a> in the neighbouring seat of Warringah, arguing this has turned potential Liberal voters in other seats. It might well be argued that Deves had a similarly adverse effect on the campaigns in other long-held Liberal seats on the North Shore and surrounds, such as Mackellar and Bennelong.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-liberals-lost-the-moral-middle-class-and-now-the-teal-independents-may-well-cash-in-182293">How the Liberals lost the 'moral middle class' - and now the teal independents may well cash in</a>
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<p>But of course these results reflect something much more serious and much deeper than a preselection problem. </p>
<p>What should follow now is a period of soul-searching within the party, and a decision on how it will challenge these seats in the future. Where will be party’s base lie in the future? </p>
<p>Meanwhile a new crop of MPs have given “politics as usual” a huge shock. </p>
<p>From the beginnings of Cathy McGowan’s victory in Indi in 2013, we now have an established model for community-backed candidates to win seats in parliament. The teals will have a steep learning curve in Canberra (without the infrastructure of established parties to support them) but they have already made a difference. </p>
<p>We should expect to see similar challenges in both Labor and Liberal seats in elections to come. The Australian political system is well and truly on notice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australian politics will never be the same after the stunning success of teal candidates at the 2022 federal election.Amy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822832022-05-05T19:56:56Z2022-05-05T19:56:56ZExplainer: what happens if the 2022 election results in a hung parliament?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461157/original/file-20220504-22-lp1ch7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What happens if no party or coalition of parties wins a majority in the House of Representatives at the federal election? This is known as a “hung parliament”. </p>
<p>While it is unusual at the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/1011/HungParliaments">federal level</a>, it has happened more often at <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/at-a-glance-australias-minority-governments/6y8ms4wfc">state and territory level</a>, so there is lots of experience in dealing with them in Australia.</p>
<h2>The prime minister gets to choose what happens next</h2>
<p>An election does not terminate the existing government. It continues in office as a <a href="http://static.moadoph.gov.au/ophgovau/media/images/apmc/docs/63-Caretaker-role.pdf">caretaker government</a> until a new government is formed, so there is never a gap between governments. An inconclusive election does not mean no-one is in charge.</p>
<p>Contrary to popular belief, it is not up to the governor-general to “call upon” someone to form a new government after an election. This is because there is no vacancy in the office of prime minister until the prime minister resigns. </p>
<p>If the result of the election is unclear, or the results leave neither side with a majority so the balance of power will be held by independents and members of small parties (known as “crossbenchers”), then it is up to the prime minister to decide what to do next. </p>
<p>The prime minister could choose to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>resign on behalf of the government, which is normally what occurs if it is clear that enough of the crossbenchers are going to support the other side</p></li>
<li><p>stay in office while negotiating with the crossbenchers to see who they will support (and resign if they choose the other side)</p></li>
<li><p>stay in office and face parliament to see whether the lower house votes no-confidence in the government (in which case the prime minister must, according to convention, resign) or whether the house is prepared to let the government stay in office as a minority government.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461158/original/file-20220504-17-1h4o65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When the 2010 election resulted in a hung Parliament, Prime Minister Julia Gillard brokered agreements with the Greens and independents to support her minority government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is the governor-general’s role?</h2>
<p>The role of the governor-general is limited. If the prime minister resigns on behalf of the government, convention requires the governor-general to appoint as prime minister the person most likely to command the support of a majority of the lower house. </p>
<p>This will usually be the leader of the opposition. In rare circumstances, where there are competing claims about who commands the support of the lower house, the governor-general might have some discretion. However, if the issue was contentious, the governor-general would probably leave it to the House of Representatives to decide by voting on who holds its confidence.</p>
<p>In the extraordinary circumstance where a prime minister refused to resign, even though the lower house had voted no confidence in them or their government, the governor-general would be entitled to dismiss the prime minister and commission a new one to form a government. But this has not happened in Australia and is extremely unlikely ever to occur.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-2022-election-result-in-a-hung-parliament-history-shows-australians-have-nothing-to-fear-from-it-181484">Could the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is it necessary to get a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with the crossbenchers?</h2>
<p>When there is a hung parliament, the focus is on whether enough of the crossbenchers will support one side or the other in government, by protecting it from a no-confidence vote and by passing its budget (known as “supply”). </p>
<p>Minority governments can be defeated on legislation and other motions in the lower house and continue in office, as long as they can get supply passed and do not lose the confidence of a majority of the lower house.</p>
<p>So where there is a hung parliament, both sides will ordinarily try to negotiate a “confidence and supply” agreement with enough crossbenchers to guarantee majority support on those two crucial matters. It is not necessary to have such an agreement, but it does help in providing stable government. It is also a good indicator to the governor-general of who commands the necessary support of the lower house. </p>
<p>That is why, despite comments that they won’t do “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/no-deal-albanese-will-not-strike-a-deal-with-independents-to-win/news-story/6ec7345f03445ed0205698fc224ca5cb">any deals</a>”, it is likely that in the face of a hung parliament, both the prime minister and the opposition leader would try to negotiate confidence and supply agreements with enough crossbenchers to get majority support in the lower house.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461159/original/file-20220504-15-qyx4j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the event of a hung parliament, crossbenchers become extremely important.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In return for a promise of support on confidence and supply, the crossbenchers will usually impose some <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Pages/minority-governments-in-australia-1989-2009-acco.aspx">conditions</a>. They may require the government to promise to implement certain policies (for example, measures to deal with climate change) or establish greater accountability (such as an anti-corruption body). </p>
<p>They may seek reforms on how parliament operates and demand adequate funding for existing accountability bodies, such as the auditor-general. They may also make their agreement on confidence conditional on the government not engaging in any corrupt conduct.</p>
<p>There are no rules about how these negotiations take place or how long it takes before an agreement is reached. Prime Minister Julia Gillard took over two weeks to negotiate confidence and supply <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/documents/minority-governments-in-australia-texts-of-accor/Gillard2010MinorityGovt.pdf">agreements</a> with enough crossbenchers to form a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/07/labor-julia-gillard-form-minority-government-australia">minority government</a>. But if close elections are challenged in the Court of Disputed Returns, it can take months to obtain certainty. In the meantime, the existing government continues in office as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-the-caretaker-government-conventions-16817">caretaker government</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-the-caretaker-government-conventions-16817">Explainer: what are the caretaker government conventions?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Does a hung parliament result in chaos?</h2>
<p>Hung parliaments can be <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-fabulous-fiftieth-nsw-parliament-and-other-minority-governments/">effective</a> or chaotic, or both, as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-the-hung-parliament-16175">Gillard minority government</a> showed. Forcing a government to explain and justify every bill on its merits, and negotiate amendments to reach a reasonable consensus, is no bad thing. It can result in significant improvements to government policy and legislation. A hung parliament can be a moderating force that knocks the ideological edges off policies and pushes them into the centre ground, where they have broad acceptance.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a hung parliament can result in governments failing to take hard, but necessary, measures that are in the country’s long-term interests. It can also result in horse-trading of support for bills and unfair favouritism directed towards projects in the electorates of the crossbenchers.</p>
<p>Whether a hung parliament ends up with policy paralysis and horse-trading on the one hand or major improvements in accountability and policy on the other, depends on the quality of both the government and the crossbenchers and their commitment to the public interest over self interest. </p>
<p>So when it comes to voting, it is wise to look beyond party or independent labels to the quality and commitment of the candidate you choose – because it may turn out to be very important.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey has received funding from the Australian Research Council and occasionally does consultancy work for governments, parliaments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>When no party can immediately form a majority government, the negotiations begin – and the role of the crossbenchers becomes extremely important.Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1818372022-04-24T12:36:27Z2022-04-24T12:36:27ZView from The Hill: Could going too negative on ‘teals’ do Liberals more harm than good?<p>As the government fights for its life, John Howard, the Liberals’ living icon, has been on the campaign trail. </p>
<p>It’s not all been smooth sailing for the veteran, however. When Anthony Albanese had his now infamous numbers lapse, Howard’s first reaction was an understanding “So what?” </p>
<p>This undermined the government’s exploitation of Albanese’s gaffe, bringing a quick clean up by Howard the following day. </p>
<p>On Saturday, Howard was campaigning in his old seat of Bennelong, which he lost, with the election, in 2007. </p>
<p>Howard weighed into the “teal” independents. “These men and women are all posing as independents. They’re not independents, they’re anti-Liberal groupies.”</p>
<p>We hadn’t heard the “groupies” sledge before. The government’s favourite attacks have been to say the teals are “fakes” and a vote for them is a vote for Labor. It’s claimed the teals – some of whom do share information and resources – are really a “party”. And it’s deeply frustrating for the Liberals that many of the teals are receiving generous funding from Climate 200.</p>
<p>The Liberals are using sledgehammers against the teals. But in the seats where these independents are considered seriously competitive with the Liberal incumbents, notably North Sydney and Wentworth in Sydney and Goldstein and Kooyong in Melbourne, could such attacks be counterproductive? </p>
<p>In an election when voters are disillusioned with the main parties, including their generally disrespectful tone, the Liberals have to take care in how they mount their arguments against these candidates who are running on issues such as integrity and, at least by implication, advocating a better way of doing the political conversation. </p>
<p>To dismiss them as “groupies” sounds insulting (and somewhat old-fashioned).
Regardless of the arguments for and against their election, many of the teals have impressive backgrounds and present a good deal better than some of the backbenchers who sit behind Scott Morrison. </p>
<p>The suggestion by some of their critics that they’re just a version of Labor is simplistically binary. Allegra Spender (Wentworth) and Kate Chaney (Curtin) come from distinguished Liberal clans. Percy Spender, grandfather of Allegra, was central in the forging of the ANZUS treaty.</p>
<p>The teals are challenged by the government for standing only against Liberal MPs. This isn’t surprising, for a couple of reasons.</p>
<p>The issues at the centre of their campaigns, climate change and an integrity body, are ones on which the government is lagging. </p>
<p>Beyond that, the seats where they have most potential appeal are the Liberal leafy electorates, where many usually-Liberal voters are put off by Morrison. </p>
<p>One would expect many women, especially, in these seats may be attracted to teals who are articulate, professional women like themselves. These female voters would find Morrison’s ultra-blokey style uncongenial and alienating. </p>
<p>What many yet-to-decide voters will want from the Liberals is not insults against the teals but answers to the criticisms they are making of the government. But there are difficulties here – for example, how can a Liberal MP respond to a teal about an integrity commission when the prime minister says he won’t even introduce the integrity legislation unless Labor supports his model, which is almost universally criticised? </p>
<p>The government attacks the teals for not declaring who they would support in a hung parliament. </p>
<p>That might be frustrating some voters and the candidates could pay a price for that. And there is a real issue here. Despite the case made for its virtues, a hung parliament could bring instability and unpredictability. </p>
<p>But would you expect teals to be doing anything other than keeping their powder dry at this stage? </p>
<p>Firstly, in the real world of politics, why would they show their hand, even if they had made a decision? It would throw their campaigns off course. </p>
<p>Secondly, for some teals (as for some of the present crossbenchers assuming they are re-elected) it would depend on the precise details of the hung parliament (who got how many seats, who won the popular vote), and on what was on offer from the two leaders. Spender last week was frank: she hadn’t made a decision, and would want to see what was on the negotiating table.</p>
<p>Both Morrison and Albanese say they would do no deals with crossbenchers in seeking to form government in a hung parliament. Maybe, maybe not. But one would expect most crossbenchers would have plenty of questions for the leaders as they made up their minds to whom they might give confidence and supply.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the government fights for its life, John Howard, the Liberals’ living icon, has been on the campaign trail.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1814842022-04-21T20:03:06Z2022-04-21T20:03:06ZCould the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458808/original/file-20220420-24-5ra8vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first two weeks of the 2022 election campaign have increased the possibility that neither of the two major parties will gain a majority in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>While the prospect may make some people queasy, the country’s political history tells us hung parliaments can work effectively and support productive, and even strong, governments.</p>
<p>Indeed, it is possible an indecisive election in 2022 might produce a better government than one that results in a narrow majority in the House of Representatives for one side or the other. </p>
<p>On the Coalition side, especially, there are differences of outlook between the partners as well as within each party that might produce the same kinds of unpredictability the naysayers often attribute to minority government.</p>
<p>There have been several stable minority state and territory governments over the past 30 years. But at the federal level, since the two-party system emerged in 1910, there are really two precedents for a hung parliament and minority governments. </p>
<p>The first was between 1940 and 1943, during the second world war. Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden each led non-Labor minority governments, and these were succeeded by John Curtin’s Labor government. </p>
<p>The second precedent was between 2010 and 2013, when Julia Gillard, followed briefly by Kevin Rudd, led a minority government supported by the Greens and some of the crossbench.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458800/original/file-20220420-21-kqziui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Julia Gillard made an alliance with The Greens after the 2010 election to form government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Minority government in war-time</h2>
<p>The 1940 election left the Australian Labor Party with voting support equal to that of the United Australia Party (UAP, a predecessor to the Liberal Party) and the Country Party (predecessor to today’s Nationals) together. Two independents, representing traditionally conservative seats, held the balance. One of those independents, businessman Arthur Coles, soon joined the UAP, but withdrew after it changed leaders.</p>
<p>Coles was elected in 1940 to the seat of Henty, which included the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, some of which now form part of the seat of Goldstein contested this year by another independent, Zoe Daniel. </p>
<p>The other independent seat in 1940 was held by wheat farmer Alexander Wilson, who had wrested the seat of Wimmera in Victoria’s north-west from the Country Party in 1937. In contrast with Coles, he leaned left – toward Labor – rather than right.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1023&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1023&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458806/original/file-20220420-14-uocp8l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1023&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Robert Menzies offered to join forces with Curtin in government, but Curtin declined, fearing a split in the Labor Party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Museum of Australian Democracy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a divided House of Representatives in 1940 and 1941, Menzies more than once invited Curtin to form an all-party or “national” government. Curtin, fearing a split in the Labor Party, declined the invitation and Menzies led a United Australia-Country Party coalition government supported by the independents.</p>
<p>But, while rejecting a national government, Curtin suggested something else that would help minority governments manage the House of Representatives during wartime: he accepted Labor’s membership of an Advisory War Council (AWC). It drew all the major parties in the parliament into the process of making decisions on Australia’s war effort. The two independents eventually switched sides, but not before giving the Coalition government ample opportunity to succeed. The instability of that government had nothing to do with the independents. Its problems were self-inflicted, coming from within.</p>
<p>When Curtin succeeded Menzies and Fadden as leader of a minority government, he kept the AWC. Between 1941 and 1943, one observer noted, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>not a piece of legislation could be framed by the [Labor] Cabinet with the certainty that it would be passed in the form in which the Government framed it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But with the support of the independents and deft use of the AWC, Curtin was able not only to lead a stable government but to implement ground-breaking legislation. These included the Uniform Tax legislation that led to the Federal Parliament monopolising income taxation ever since.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458804/original/file-20220420-17-s3645r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the support of independents and deft use of the AWC, John Curtin was able to govern very effectively.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.chifley.org.au/in-depth/the-curtin-government-and-full-employment/">chifley.org.au</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Gillard-Greens alliance</h2>
<p>If this seems like ancient history, we have a more recent exemplar that minority government can be made to work. Between 2010 and 2013, Julia Gillard was able to secure workable and reliable parliamentary majorities in both houses of parliament, despite Labor’s lack of control of either house. </p>
<p>In some areas, she was able to succeed where Kevin Rudd, who had a comfortable majority in the house but no majority in the Senate, had failed. Some 561 pieces of legislation were passed, many more than during the Rudd government and, remarkably, more than when John Howard had control of both houses (2005-2007). </p>
<p>Like the difficulties of the Menzies government in 1940-41, the Gillard government’s major problems did not arise so much from lack of parliamentary numbers as from internal divisions arising from the rivalry between Gillard and Rudd.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-to-2021-in-federal-politics-the-year-of-living-in-disappointment-172238">Farewell to 2021 in federal politics, the year of living in disappointment</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Could 2022 be next?</h2>
<p>A minority government established in 2022 could consider similar mechanisms to the Advisory War Council: a variation on the existing National Cabinet, consisting not only of the leaders of Commonwealth and state governments, but of representatives of the opposition, minor parties and independents as well. Its remit could be extended beyond COVID-19 to encompass necessary reforms given a mandate by the people, such as a national integrity commission, and climate change and energy policy.</p>
<p>Curtin was helped, too, by the United Australia Party Speaker of the House of Representatives, Walter Nairn, remaining in his post for most of the parliamentary term, giving him a more stable majority in the house. Had Tony Smith remained in parliament, a minority Albanese government might well have welcomed him continuing to perform this role. There would be nothing to stop one of the crossbench, moreover, accepting the role to become an “independent speaker”.</p>
<p>What does history tell us might happen if a divided House of Representatives is the outcome in May? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458807/original/file-20220420-16-mk2q31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Independents Rob Oakeshott (left) and Tony Windsor backed the Gillard government, but soon paid a hefty price for it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the crossbench will have won their seats campaigning for a robust national integrity commission, stronger action on climate change and water policy, and more serious action on gender equity. Labor’s policies on these matters place it in a stronger position to negotiate with the independents. But some of the independents, most of whom represent “natural” Coalition seats, might fear the electoral consequences of supporting a Labor minority government. </p>
<p>The experience of independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott is instructive here. They showed they could win historically National Party seats. But their experience would be a warning to an independent in a “natural” Coalition seat about the dangers of supporting Labor. While neither recontested his seat in 2013, there was sufficient evidence of a local backlash to indicate that holding on, in the context of a national swing to the Coalition, would not have been easy. As we pointed out in an earlier article, another scenario after May 21 might be the independents supporting a minority Coalition government supported by someone other than the present prime minister.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-if-the-2022-federal-election-gives-us-a-hung-parliament-but-those-with-the-balance-of-power-want-morrison-gone-180097">What if the 2022 federal election gives us a hung parliament, but those with the balance of power want Morrison gone?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Whatever the case, it is entirely possible a hung parliament might provide the circuit-breaker for a parliament that needs to grapple with much needed national reforms. </p>
<p>Australians have many things to fear about the future, but a minority government is among the least of their problems. If it should happen, it would rather reflect the loosening hold of the major parties on the votes of Australians, and so would be an authentic expression of an important turn in the history of our democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno is a member of Kim For Canberra (Senate election) and has donated to Climate 200.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lee is a member of the Australian Labor Party and has donated to Climate 200. </span></em></p>Since the advent of the two-party preferred system, there have been two examples of parties governing effectively in minority, and with the support of independents.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityDavid Lee, Associate Professor of History, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810582022-04-18T19:57:44Z2022-04-18T19:57:44ZClimate policy in 2022 is no longer a political bin-fire – but it remains a smouldering issue for voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458079/original/file-20220414-21-r72kil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5542%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As far as political debate goes, this federal election seems to be less about climate change than any in the past 15 years. Unlike in 2010, 2013 and 2016 – when governments were elected and leaders deposed over climate policy – this time there’s no brutal contest over the issue.</p>
<p>There are no calls for emissions trading schemes, no Greens <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bob-brown-s-convoy-hurt-labor-says-richard-di-natale-20191006-p52y1e.html">cavalcade</a> into Queensland’s coal-mining hinterland, and no Labor <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/adani-could-cost-labor-victory-on-may-18-20190509-p51lk5">prevarication</a> over the Adani coal mine. The election is shaping up as a contest over other issues – leadership integrity, crisis management, economic nous and the cost of living. </p>
<p>Even so, and although overshadowed by the COVID pandemic, the current term of government has been framed by extreme climate events – first the Black Summer bushfires and, more recently, floods. </p>
<p>In 2019, climate change determined how <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248268">about 13%</a> of Australians voted. And while it’s early days in the campaign, <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7633277/climate-health-top-your-concerns-going-into-federal-election-campaign/">several</a> <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/aussie-voters-want-climate-action-what-could-decide-key-seats/news-story/32dbb1ba3c3228facb5bb65cb8c3478c">polls</a> suggest climate change remains a defining issue for voters this time around. If they’re right, the Coalition is in trouble. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="firefighter holds head while lying down" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Voters will not easily forget the trauma of the Black Summer fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz</span></span>
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<h2>Climate emergencies fuel climate anxiety</h2>
<p>Public anxiety over future climate damage is growing. The Lowy Institute <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/climatepoll-2021">has found</a> 60% of Australians now say global warming is a significant and pressing problem. The same poll showed 55% of Australians say the government’s energy policy should prioritise “reducing carbon emissions” – up eight points since 2019. </p>
<p>We can expect the climate vote to be driven by several factors. They include: personal experience of disaster and recovery, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s leadership on the issue, the government’s performance in reducing emissions, power prices and energy security, and competing parties’ credibility and promises on climate action.</p>
<p>There is mixed evidence on how extreme weather affects voting intentions. For example, while <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358447878_Climate_change_experiences_raise_environmental_concerns_and_promote_Green_voting">some</a> studies say it benefits parties with greener policies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-shows-voters-favour-financial-relief-after-disasters-but-we-need-climate-action-too-179028">others</a> indicate voters prioritise economic security after a disaster.</p>
<p>But the Morrison government has also been accused of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-accept-the-criticism-scott-morrison-apologises-for-family-holiday-20191222-p53m6o.html">weak leadership</a> during recent disasters and being <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/history-repeating-morrison-too-slow-on-a-natural-disaster-20220309-p5a37f.html">too slow</a> to deliver assistance afterwards. Such perceptions, particularly in disaster-hit areas, are likely to weigh heavily against the government.</p>
<p>The election, of course, will not be decided on the overall swing, but what happens in marginal seats and those where credible independent candidates – many of them with climate action high on their agendas – pose a real threat to incumbents. </p>
<p>Some 25 electorates are likely to determine the next government. The 2019 election was only narrowly won by the Coalition and it <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/marginal-seats-what-are-they-and-why-do-they-matter">currently holds</a> nine seats on a margin of less than 4%. Labor holds 14 marginal seats and independents hold two. </p>
<p>Seven of these seats were hard hit by the Black Summer fires and this year’s floods. Five are marginal seats held by the ALP – Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Macquarie and Gilmore in NSW, and Lilley in Queensland. </p>
<p>If the fires and floods do swing votes this election, they’re likely to secure Labor incumbents in these seats.</p>
<p>The other two – Page in NSW and Gippsland in Victoria – are safe Nationals seats and likely to remain so.</p>
<p>Independents campaigning on climate policy look set to challenge Liberal supremacy in three urban seats: <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-chill-winds-of-change-and-the-battle-for-goldstein-s-golden-mile-20220407-p5absh.html">Goldstein</a> in Victoria, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/27/allegra-spender-wentworth-independent-hopeful-says-climate-action-is-vital-for-economy">Wentworth</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-the-liberal-party-s-latest-problem-a-climate-driven-independent-20210917-p58sjz.html">North Sydney</a> in NSW.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Zali Steggall, an incumbent climate independent, looks secure in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/10/nsw-liberals-reopen-nominations-in-warringah-in-race-to-find-candidate-to-run-against-zali-steggall">Warringah</a>.</p>
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<img alt="woman stands in fornt of climate protest signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pro-climate independent Zali Steggall looks set for re-election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marion Rae/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A credibility problem</h2>
<p>Scott Morrison has a climate credibility problem. Having defined himself while treasurer by brandishing a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/scott-morrison-brings-coal-to-question-time-what-fresh-idiocy-is-this">lump of coal</a> in Parliament, as prime minister he’s been accused of lacking empathy for victims of climate disasters.</p>
<p>Morrison’s trip to Hawaii during the Black Summer fires continues to haunt his reputation. And given the ongoing sensitivities around his disaster responsiveness, his government’s assistance after the recent floods was surprisingly sluggish.</p>
<p>Australia’s low climate policy ambition and persistent refusal to increase its 2030 emissions target saw it branded a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670">laggard</a> at last year’s crucial United Nations climate summit in Glasgow.</p>
<p>The government has sought to claim credit for Australia’s success in reducing emissions from the energy sector. But most momentum derives from <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-joined-china-south-korea-and-japan-as-climate-leaders-now-its-time-for-the-rest-of-australia-to-follow-149731">state and territory</a> policies, and private investment – coupled with the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Political-Economy-of-Coal-Obstacles-to-Clean-Energy-Transitions/Jakob-Steckel/p/book/9780367491024">dynamism</a> and market competitiveness of the renewable energy sector itself.</p>
<p>And federal plans for a “<a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/gas-fired-recovery">gas-fired recovery</a>” from the pandemic make no <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/gas-led-recovery-likely-to-be-a-mirage/12843276">economic</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-fossil-fuel-investment-for-a-decade-is-in-the-works-and-its-greenhouse-gas-emissions-will-be-horrifying-172955">ecological</a> sense.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670">'The Australian way': how Morrison trashed brand Australia at COP26</a>
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<h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<p>The road to elections is paved with broken old promises and lit by bright new ones (see table below). </p>
<p>The crucial indicator is the short-term national emissions target. The Coalition is sticking with a 26-28% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030. Labor is aiming for a 43% cut in the same period. The Greens and independents want more, and would legislate their targets. </p>
<p>While the Coalition has no renewable energy target, Labor is promising renewables will comprise 82% of the national grid by 2030.</p>
<p>But how will they get there? This year’s federal budget – which barely mentioned climate change – outline the Coalition’s express commitments. It provides funding for liquified natural gas production, <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/federal-budget-fails-to-prioritise-rapid-transition-to-renewable-energy">but no</a> declining funding for renewable energy.</p>
<p>The budget also <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs5.pdf">offers</a> $12.3 billion for road infrastructure and $3.7 billion for rail next year. But there’s little for electric vehicles – crucial for cutting transport emissions and fuel costs. </p>
<p>Labor is promising <a href="https://alp.org.au/policies/rewiring_the_nation">$20 billion</a> for powergrid upgrades and renewables, <a href="https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/labor-solar-batteries-mb2262/">$200 million</a> for solar banks and community batteries, and a <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/electric_car_discount/">discount scheme</a> for electric cars.</p>
<p>Seeking to repair Australia’s international reputation, Labor is also offering to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/clear-message-labor-promises-to-bid-to-host-global-climate-change-summit-if-elected-20220405-p5aaz8.html">host</a> a future United Nations climate conference, which traditionally serves to enhance the host nation’s domestic performance.</p>
<p>But tellingly, neither major party mentions fossil <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-net-zero-plan-fails-to-tackle-our-biggest-contribution-to-climate-change-fossil-fuel-exports-170646">fuel exports</a> – the overwhelming and growing contributor to Australia’s global carbon footprint. </p>
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<h2>What will the next term bring?</h2>
<p>Obviously, we don’t yet know the persuasion of the next government – nor whether it will rely on support from minor parties and independents. </p>
<p>But we <em>do</em> know it will confront growing pressure for tougher climate targets and action – from the electorate, our international peers and the rising number of climate-related legal challenges.</p>
<p>As this month’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates, extreme events will inevitably intensify and require more, and better coordinated, responses. </p>
<p>Ever more forcefully, we can expect global warming to continue shaping Australia’s political landscape.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-is-set-to-finally-announce-a-2050-net-zero-commitment-heres-a-to-do-list-for-each-sector-170099">The Morrison government is set to finally announce a 2050 net-zero commitment. Here's a 'to do' list for each sector</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff is a member of the not-for-profit group Environment Victoria, and was previously affiliated with the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Victorian Greens.</span></em></p>Notwithstanding COVID, this political term has been framed by extreme events such as the Black Summer bushfires and floods – and it will show at the ballot box.Peter Christoff, Senior Research Fellow and Associate Professor, Melbourne Climate Futures initiative, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1797492022-04-10T00:55:25Z2022-04-10T00:55:25ZWomen have been at the centre of political debate in the past two years. Will they decide the 2022 election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455987/original/file-20220404-23-4t7llb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Diego Fidele</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After months of speculation, Australians will go to the polls on May 21.</p>
<p>Given the events of the past two years, so-called “women’s issues” look set to play an important role in the campaign. Apart from the government’s headline gender problems, most notably their handling of the Brittany Higgins case, the COVID pandemic exposed the ways our culture still <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/womens-work/">relies on women</a> to perform most of the care work that keeps society functioning. Women workers in retail, health and aged care were at the pandemic frontlines; at home, many juggled paid work with care for children and ageing relatives. </p>
<p>How will the major parties speak to these women?</p>
<p>This government is nine years old, and it has had what former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull described as a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/09/far-too-blokey-turnbull-says-liberal-party-has-gender-inequality-problem">women problem</a>” in its parliamentary ranks for all of that time. The LNP still has far <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/australia-datablog/2021/mar/31/drilling-down-into-the-gender-balance-in-australias-parliament">fewer women in parliament</a> than the Labor party, and since the departure of Julie Bishop, they have few popular female campaigners to draw on.</p>
<p>In contrast, more than 40% of Labor’s MPs are women. According to recent research, Penny Wong is Australia’s <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/03/23/australia-least-trusted-politicians/">most trusted</a> politician, with Tanya Plibersek not far behind.</p>
<p>Yet despite these high-profile women, for most voters, the election is a contest between two white men, close in age and appearance. After the ALP’s demoralising defeat in 2019 on a progressive platform of redistributive tax reform (changes to franking credits and negative gearing) and health (free cancer treatment and abortions in public hospitals), this time they have chosen a small target strategy. The differences between the two parties are far less obvious than they were in 2019. </p>
<p>Yet much has changed since then. The country has experienced a disruptive three years. While Australians rose to the occasion during the pandemic, enduring lockdowns and quickly getting vaccinated, they were let down by the government’s failures in planning and procurement. </p>
<p>The politics of climate change have also changed since 2019, when Labor was caught between “coal seats” and progressive voters. Three years of unprecedented natural disasters and the government’s failure to take meaningful action mean the LNP is now wedged on climate by the “teal” independents in blue-ribbon seats. </p>
<p>And since the last election, the Coalition’s treatment of women has become a defining issue. In 2018, the party’s humiliation of Julie Bishop as a leadership contender raised the hackles of many in the LNP, including Julia Banks, who <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/29/liberal-mp-julia-banks-to-quit-parliament-next-election-citing-bullying-and-intimidation">resigned from parliament</a>, alleging bullying. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455982/original/file-20220404-15-kquu4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame, among others, have done much to galvanise women since the last election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it was the emergence of 2021 Australian of the Year Grace Tame as an eloquent critic of the government on gender issues and Brittany Higgins’ allegation of sexual assault that galvanised Australian women. </p>
<p>Add to that Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/04/scott-morrison-rejects-calls-for-independent-inquiry-into-allegation-against-christian-porter">response</a> to the allegations made against Christian Porter, his treatment of former Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate, the expensive stage three tax cuts that will overwhelmingly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/17/men-on-high-incomes-to-take-lions-share-of-coalitions-184bn-tax-cuts-analyses-find">favour men</a>, failure to enforce a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-07/kate-jenkins-respect-at-work-report/100438496">positive duty</a>” on employers to ensure workplaces free of sexual harassment, and more allegations of bullying against the prime minister from <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/liberal-senator-blasts-scott-morrison-has-a-bully-who-is-unfit-to-lead-the-nation/news-story/6488b795691e71bd1cd69854c3af1746">women in his party</a>, and it’s pretty clear the government still has a “women problem”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-change-making-history-making-noise-brittany-higgins-and-grace-tame-at-the-national-press-club-176252">Making change, making history, making noise: Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame at the National Press Club</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The unseemly eagerness with which the government seized on unproven allegations that the late Senator Kimberly Kitching had been bullied showed how desperate they are to level the playing field on “women’s issues”.</p>
<p>But how will all this play out in the election campaign? </p>
<h2>How women reshaped the major parties</h2>
<p>The last few decades have seen a realignment of support for the major parties along gender lines, and the gender differences in voter bases have been especially stark in the Morrison era. </p>
<p>Historically, Australian women tended to vote conservative. While there were very few women in Australia’s parliaments until the late 1970s, those elected tended to represent the Liberal and National parties. The ALP was regarded as a party with a male-dominated union culture, hostile to women. </p>
<p>The emergence of what historian Judith Brett called a “moral middle class” in the 1960s began a larger political realignment in Australia. The Labor party broadened its appeal to the emerging progressive middle class, and women became a crucial part of this constituency as they moved into the workforce and education, expanding their horizons and changing their priorities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/memo-liberal-women-if-you-really-want-to-confront-misogyny-in-your-party-you-need-to-fix-the-policies-157687">Memo Liberal women: if you really want to confront misogyny in your party, you need to fix the policies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since the 1980s, the gender gap between women and men’s support for the major parties has waxed and waned. But at the last election, the Liberal Party attracted the lowest number of votes from women <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2021/03/15/will-women-forsake-the-liberal-party-at-the-next-election-.html">since 1987</a>. More women than men <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/">voted for Labor</a>) in 2019. </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s focus on aged care in his <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-offers-2-5-billion-plan-to-fix-crisis-in-aged-care-180419">budget reply</a> signalled that care, in the broadest sense, would be a central plank of Labor’s campaign. This should matter to everyone – both men and women have ageing parents or grandparents. But because women largely perform society’s paid and unpaid care work, it is an issue that will resonate more with female voters.</p>
<p>To win government, Labor needs to retain women’s votes while renewing their appeal to blue collar men, many of whom shifted to the LNP in 2019. Polling suggests they have succeeded, though how it will play out in individual seats remains to be seen.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455985/original/file-20220404-23-qqn7t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In constantly courting the male (and often tradie) vote, Morrison has neglected women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sarah Rhodes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Morrison constantly courting the male (tradie) vote</h2>
<p>So what might Morrison do to retain the “men’s vote”? Katharine Murphy has astutely observed that his political attention is always focused on men who “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/27/scott-morrisons-efforts-to-engage-with-women-are-more-me-than-mea-culpa">might vote Labor</a>”. This explains why so many women are turned off by his repeated tradie cosplay: he’s not addressing them. </p>
<p>In 2019, Morrison’s “daggy dad” persona served him well: he was happy on the campaign trail, serving up stunts for the 6pm news. However, since then this strategy has faltered. He doesn’t hold a hose when it counts, and his willingness to take credit but never responsibility might represent a kind of masculinity that few Australian men will want to embrace. </p>
<p>In focusing so tightly on the male vote, Morrison has neglected women. It may yet cost him government. The wild card in this election is the number of largely female independents running in safe Liberal seats. </p>
<p>In an alternate universe, most of these women would be Liberal Party moderates, had the party not worked so hard to alienate them. In the early 2000s, John Howard dismissed Liberal-leaning women who disliked the party’s policies on refugees and social issues as “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/meet-the-women-who-have-john-howard-worried-20040929-gdypit.html">doctors’ wives</a>”: <a href="https://thesydneyinstitute.com.au/blog/tsi-quarterly-issue-33/">Anne Henderson </a>noted critics regarded them as women with “enough money to afford a conscience”.</p>
<p>Yet in 2022, the Liberal party would do well to remember that many “wives” are also doctors – professional, socially progressive and economically centrist, looking for candidates who represent their values. This is why the “teal” independents have made urgent action on climate, an integrity commission, and better action on gender equity central to their platforms. Their views on aged care reform – which will require increased government spending – are less clear.</p>
<p>The next few weeks will reveal whether they emerge as a new force in Australian politics. Whatever happens, many women voters are clearly signalling they will no longer be taken for granted, and this renewed engagement is a promising sign for a more responsive, representative politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179749/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Arrow receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She was a campaign volunteer for the Australian Labor Party at the 2019 election. Michelle would like to thank Shaun Wilson for his assistance in researching this article.</span></em></p>The treatment of women in Parliament House and Australian society more broadly has been the focus of much attention since the last election – how political leaders respond may decide their fate.Michelle Arrow, Professor of History, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1804082022-04-10T00:48:43Z2022-04-10T00:48:43ZAustralians to vote on May 21, with Scott Morrison starting behind in the polls<p>Australian voters will go to the polls on May 21. </p>
<p>The government enters the battle trailing the opposition 46-54% in the latest Newspoll, conducted after the budget, with Morrison and opposition leader Anthony Albanese virtually level as preferred prime minister. Labor is also ahead in the other major polls.</p>
<p>After flying from Sydney, Scott Morrison visited the governor-general on Sunday morning, paving the way for a six-week campaign. The Coalition is seeking its fourth term, while Morrison is leading the government into his second election as prime minister. </p>
<p>Morrison later told a news conference at Parliament House: “This election is a choice. It’s a choice between a strong economy and a Labor opposition that would weaken it.”</p>
<p>“It’s a choice between a strong and tested government team that has demonstrated our ability to make difficult and tough choices in tough times and a Labor opposition who has been so focused on politics over these past few years that they still can’t tell you what they do, who they are, or what they believe in, and what they stand for.”</p>
<p>“It’s a choice between a government you know and a Labor opposition that you don’t.” </p>
<p>Albanese declared his message to “fellow Australians” was “this is our time, our time to seize the opportunities that are before us, our time to create a better future where no one is held back and no one is left behind”.</p>
<p>He said the government “doesn’t have an agenda for today, let alone a vision for tomorrow”. </p>
<p>“The problem for this government is that it has stopped governing some time ago. I think that Australians want a government that does its job,” he told his news conference in Sydney.</p>
<p>Labor needs a uniform swing of 2.6% to finish with more seats than the Coalition, on ABC election analyst Antony Green’s pendulum. But it needs a 3.2% swing – and a net seven seats gain – to secure majority government. Swings, however, are seldom uniform. </p>
<p>After the redistribution the government goes into the election with 76 seats in the 151 House of Representatives. (This includes notionally the NSW seat of Hughes, presently held by Craig Kelly who defected to the crossbench.) Labor starts with 69 seats. </p>
<p>All seven lower house crossbenchers, including Kelly, are recontesting, with most (but not Kelly) expected to be returned. </p>
<p>Morrison will have at the centre of his campaign pitch economic management, with the Australian economy coming back strongly after the pandemic and unemployment at 4% and set to fall further. The Coalition is also running hard on national security. A big infrastructure program is aimed at appealing to voters in the regions. </p>
<p>The opposition has the theme of “Labor cares” with major policies on child care and aged care, as well as a suite of policies for the nation to “build back better” after COVID-19. </p>
<p>Both sides will release more policies during the campaign.</p>
<p>Much interest will be in the high profile so-called “teal” independent candidates standing in Liberal-held “leafy” suburbs seats on platforms that highlight climate change and integrity issues. A number of these independents are receiving funds from the well-resourced Climate 200.</p>
<p>The formal campaign is starting off the back of the government’s giveaway budget which contained big ticket items, including a cut in petrol excise for six months, to ease financial pressures on families as the cost of living has escalated as an issue. </p>
<p>The government is defending only five seats with two-party preferred margins under 3% (one of them, Wentworth, against a “teal” independent) compared with Labor’s 12. </p>
<p>There will be a special arrangement for people who contact COVID or find themselves suddenly in isolation as a close contact – for them, there will be a 72-hour window for telephone voting after postal vote applications close.</p>
<p>SEATS TO WATCH </p>
<p><strong>Queensland</strong>
Lilley (ALP 0.6%); Blair (ALP 1.2%); Longman (LNP 3.3%); Defence minister Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson (LNP 4.6%); Leichhardt (LNP 4.2%); Griffith (ALP 2.9%); and Brisbane (LNP 4.9%). The Coalition is relying on Queensland to shore up its support.</p>
<p><strong>Western Australia</strong>
Cowan (ALP 0.9%); Swan (LIB 3.2%) where MP Steve Irons is retiring; a radically re-drawn Pearce (LIB 5.2%) where former minister Christian Porter is retiring; Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck (5.9%); and Special Minister of State Ben Morton’s seat of Tangney (LIB 9.5%). Labor is hoping for gains in WA.</p>
<p><strong>Tasmania</strong>
Bass (LIB 0.4%), and Braddon (LIB 3.1%)</p>
<p><strong>Victoria</strong>
Chisholm (LIB 0.5%); Deakin (LIB 4.7%); Casey (LIB 4.6%); La Trobe (LIB 5.1%); Higgins (LIB 2.6%); Indi (IND 1.4% V LIB).</p>
<p><strong>New South Wales</strong>
Macquarie (ALP 0.2%); Greenway (ALP 2.8%); Parramatta (ALP 3.5%); Dobell (ALP 1.5%); Eden-Monaro (ALP 0.8%); Gilmore (ALP 2.6%);
Reid (LIB 3.2%); Banks (LIB 6.3%); Robertson (LIB 4.2%); Lindsay (LIB 5.0%); Wentworth (LIB 1.3% v IND). The parties are expecting seats to go both ways in NSW.</p>
<p><strong>South Australia</strong>
Boothby (LIB 1.4%).</p>
<p><strong>Northern Territory</strong>
Solomon (ALP 3.1%); Lingiari (ALP 5.5%).</p>
<p>As at December 31 2021, 17,032,907 Australians were enrolled to vote.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians brace themselves for a six-week campaign, with the Coalition starting behind Labor in the polls - but with much that can happen during the campaign.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1806942022-04-05T07:58:49Z2022-04-05T07:58:49ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Court saves Morrison’s NSW preselections but what sort of campaign will Liberals run?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456307/original/file-20220405-20-wo6hp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3988%2C1982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn talk about Tuesday’s court ruling in the NSW Liberals’ factional fighting. It has given Scott Morrison a get-out-of-jail card. But it still leaves a divided party that is poorly placed to fight a campaign in a state where the government needs to win seats. They also canvass the continuing damage to the prime minister by the focus on the issue of his character.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1775542022-03-20T19:01:51Z2022-03-20T19:01:51ZIf only politicians focused on the school issues that matter. This election is a chance to get them to do that<p>The political attention education issues are getting in the lead-up to the federal election may be an opportunity to demand politicians focus on issues that matter to schools and their communities. </p>
<p>Education has recently been characterised as a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-history-curriculum-should-not-be-used-and-abused-as-an-election-issue-176783">political football</a>”. The Coalition (LNP) government has focused on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-will-never-be-considered-human-the-devastating-trauma-lgbtq-people-suffer-in-religious-settings-176360">impacts of gender and sexuality legislation</a> on religious schools and <a href="https://theconversation.com/10-things-every-politician-should-know-about-history-170626">nationalistic history</a> as part of the Australian Curriculum. The Labor Party, should it win office, plans to <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/internet/children-to-get-digital-licence-to-use-the-internet-under-labor-plan/news-story/83831f1f924c24d0a253f0a0e32fa4a2">require students to get a “digital licence”</a> to protect them from online dangers. </p>
<p>Local school experiences, teachers’ expertise and the educational research that should inform Australian schooling will tell you these issues are all framed too simply. Some have <a href="https://www.aare.edu.au/blog/?p=11982">called on the media</a> to be more responsible in reporting education issues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-history-curriculum-should-not-be-used-and-abused-as-an-election-issue-176783">The national history curriculum should not be used and abused as an election issue</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>So why do politicians focus on issues like these?</h2>
<p>The reason for building a political platform on moral panic is that politics today is tapping into a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1367877920912257">general fear of either change or being left behind</a>. This is a solid strategy, especially when <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-20/anxiety-young-people-is-increasing-across-australia-covid/100829836">anxiety is on the rise</a>. </p>
<p>The LNP’s issues of choice are typically conservative. They offer voters a <a href="https://www.aare.edu.au/blog/?p=7020">romanticised view of school</a> before rapid change swept the world. </p>
<p>The issue chosen by the ALP is typically progressive. It presents education as a process of catching up to overcome an uncertain future. But the ALP is also trying to play a romantic game by linking outdated, non-inclusive understandings of internet safety to outdated, non-inclusive “<a href="https://magiclinkhandwriting.com/the-sad-truth-behind-the-pen-licence/">pen licences</a>”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1490444828567433221"}"></div></p>
<p>Understanding why politicians frame education in the ways they do can help teachers and parents make sense of the issues raised by the major parties. And if they understand what is happening, <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003145806-3/democracy-decline-developing-democratic-re-orientations-plurality-deliberation-bev-rogers">voters can apply localised pressure</a> to the parties in the election campaign.</p>
<h2>Why moral panics?</h2>
<p>Politicians are no longer connected to localised issues. The diversity and complexity of these issues, coupled with the ubiquity of information on the internet, present a problem for politicians trying to understand the “typical Australian”. So much information is available that it is difficult to know what policy promises to make. </p>
<p>To solve this problem, governments and political parties have drawn on a new class of knowledge brokers to decipher the information and make recommendations. Federal politicians use their partisan knowledge brokers, often employed at think tanks, to look for issues that appeal to their interpretation of the average Australian. These think tanks work as a buffer between politics and the public. </p>
<p>We are researching the effects that buffer organisations, like think tanks, have on education policy development and the politics that goes along with education reform. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/still-waiting-for-gonski-a-great-book-about-the-sorry-tale-of-school-funding-178016">Still 'Waiting for Gonski' – a great book about the sorry tale of school funding</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We have concentrated <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14767724.2021.1882292">our research</a> at this stage on the partisan organisations. But even if they claim to be non-partisan, their work often reveals gaps in their knowledge about education issues.</p>
<p>For example, a recent <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/making-time-for-great-teaching-how-better-government-policy-can-help/">analysis of teachers’ workloads</a> recommended creating materials for teachers to use, so they could concentrate on how to teach, rather than what to teach. </p>
<p>What this recommendation failed to note was that such a scheme has been running in Queensland for nearly a decade. The <a href="https://education.qld.gov.au/curriculum/stages-of-schooling/C2C">Curriculum into the Classroom</a> (or C2C) project has been <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883035515301701?casa_token=6_vyEo68diUAAAAA:w3YbJn1wDTNhy3dQ8RoeFMMUx5NX-xCGwIpQW8CmrKcrk1SsiZXEjcpZAFyIglMrp930ED5JEg">highly problematic</a>. It has even <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/ielapa.499261648498076?casa_token=xM4CASghuRQAAAAA%3AA_exHyAVNMeD-JAfzC7hP-OjKWDdbg9wWFnuIpVYdkMspoXkA6YNGObrkIOW0dT8BbsCnhwbImdQTnQ">reportedly increased teacher workloads</a>.</p>
<h2>What can voters do about it?</h2>
<p>The election presents an opportunity for the public to demand courageous education policy. With <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-independent-candidates-and-the-federal-election-173587">more and more independent candidates</a> standing in their local electorates, voters don’t need to engage with moral panic. Independents present an opportunity for schools and their communities to pitch the local education issues of most concern to them. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-independent-candidates-and-the-federal-election-173587">What's going on with independent candidates and the federal election?</a>
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<p>Ultimately, local candidates represent local issues, but party candidates will always have to balance local concerns with the party platform. Truly independent candidates can be more receptive to issues locals regard as important. Local issues raised with these candidates are more likely to be reflected in their platforms. </p>
<p>The major parties are increasingly fearful of being outflanked by independent candidates. As a result, these parties could feel the need to adopt aspects of the independents’ policies, or pay more attention to the concerns they raise.</p>
<h2>What sort of issues are we talking about?</h2>
<p>At a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS1Nm0tbg8Y">symposium in June 2020</a>, Keith Heggart and Steven Kolber asked teachers, principals, politicians, journalists, education researchers, parents, public intellectuals and community members to discuss democratic issues faced by Australian schools. The two authors have compiled a soon-to-be-published edited collection based on the symposium. They summarise key issues as:</p>
<ul>
<li>teachers’ rapidly increasing workload</li>
<li>lack of trust in teachers and their professional judgment</li>
<li>lack of scrutiny of the expensive adoption of new technology</li>
<li>the quality of research used for so-called evidence-based policy. </li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-improve-our-education-system-stop-seeking-advice-from-far-off-gurus-and-encourage-expertise-in-schools-165320">Want to improve our education system? Stop seeking advice from far-off gurus and encourage expertise in schools</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Suggested approaches for tackling these issues include:</p>
<ul>
<li>more effective and personalised professional learning for teachers</li>
<li>more parental and community involvement in schools</li>
<li>more targeted support for early-career teachers by linking them to professional networks and teaching communities</li>
<li>a revitalisation of teacher unions, including a return to grassroots work with members, but also through expanding connections with the broader education community, including parents, professional associations and think tanks. </li>
</ul>
<p>Underpinning all of these issues was a central theme: teachers must have the flexibility, trust and quality of research essential for education that serves local needs. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Thank you to Cameron Malcher and Tom Mahoney for their assistance.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Heggart receives funding from the Independent Education Union of Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naomi Barnes and Steven Kolber do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Election time presents teachers, parents and citizens with an opportunity to put pressure on local candidates and demand courageous policy that will improve education in ways the community needs.Naomi Barnes, Senior Lecturer, School of Teacher Education & Leadership, Queensland University of TechnologyKeith Heggart, Lecturer in Learning Design, University of Technology SydneySteven Kolber, Research Assistant, School of Education, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1735872021-12-13T19:07:10Z2021-12-13T19:07:10ZWhat’s going on with independent candidates and the federal election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437072/original/file-20211213-27-q55mft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C38%2C4218%2C2343&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the 2022 election promising to be close – the Morrison government has just a one-seat majority – could high-profile independents be a crucial factor in key seats? </p>
<p>From former ABC journalist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/25/former-abc-journalist-zoe-daniel-to-run-as-an-independent-against-liberal-mp-tim-wilson-in-victoria">Zoe Daniel</a> in Goldstein to businesswoman <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-20/federal-election-2022-allegra-spender-wentworth-independent/100636638">Allegra Spender</a> in Wentworth, swathes of locally-endorsed independent candidates are contesting high-profile seats, with a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/08/climate-200-raises-2m-in-six-weeks-to-help-independents-but-expects-liberal-party-interference">strong focus on climate change action</a>. </p>
<p>Since the introduction of proportional representation for the Senate in 1949, we have become very accustomed to independents and minor parties being important players in the Senate. But what about the lower house?</p>
<h2>How MPs get elected is important</h2>
<p>The answer lies in the system used to elect candidates to the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>Proportional representation is good for minor parties and independents, but in the lower-house, our single-member electorates create and then reinforce two-party systems.</p>
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<p>This is why, since 1910, the House of Representatives has been a two-party affair – and there is no reason to think this is fundamentally changing. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, it is quite possible the next parliament will be like the 16th and 43rd, where independent members played vital roles.</p>
<h2>The 16th parliament</h2>
<p>The 16th parliament was elected on September 21, 1940, and had three prime ministers: Bob Menzies (until August 1941), Arthur Fadden (from August to October 1941) and John Curtin (from October 1941).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-to-2021-in-federal-politics-the-year-of-living-in-disappointment-172238">Farewell to 2021 in federal politics, the year of living in disappointment</a>
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<p>Two independents played a key role here – Arthur Coles (representing the former electorate of Henty, Victoria) and Alexander Wilson (Wimmera, Victoria). Originally elected to support Menzies, they withdrew that support. The short-term effect was Fadden’s brief term, but in October 1941, they installed Curtin’s Labor government. </p>
<p>The next election, in 1943, produced landslide wins in both houses for John Curtin’s Labor Party. The two independents who had played such a critical role in the 16th parliament retained their seats but became so unimportant they soon resigned.</p>
<h2>The 43rd parliament</h2>
<p>The 43rd parliament was elected in August 2010. The prime ministers were Julia Gillard until June 2013, then Kevin Rudd until Labor’s defeat in September the same year.</p>
<p>The prime ministership was famously delivered to Gillard after independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor threw their support behind Labor. </p>
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<img alt="Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437075/original/file-20211213-13-123wa8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor were key independents in the 43rd parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The following election in September 2013 produced a landslide win in the House of Representatives election for Tony Abbott’s Liberal-National Coalition. The two independents – so critical in the 43rd parliament – did not seek election to the 44th. </p>
<p>The four key independent members – across the 16th and 43rd parliaments – represented conservative electorates, but put Labor prime ministers into office. That Coles, Wilson, Oakeshott and Windsor would become quite so important was not predicted, because neither the 16th nor the 43rd were forecast to be “hung”.</p>
<h2>What about the 47th parliament?</h2>
<p>This is where the present situation is so different. There is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/issue-by-issue-independents-not-committing-to-either-major-party-20211212-p59gtz.html">genuine talk</a> of a hung parliament. </p>
<p>However, I still think Labor will likely win outright next year – essentially because Prime Minister Scott Morrison does not “get it” on women, climate change and integrity issues. If that is correct, then none of the independents will be of special importance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-morrison-gaining-a-reputation-for-untrustworthiness-the-answer-could-have-serious-implications-for-the-election-171816">Is Morrison gaining a reputation for untrustworthiness? The answer could have serious implications for the election</a>
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<p>However, I do think it is sensible to speculate on two possible alternative results, based on my reading of individual seats. </p>
<p>At the May 2019 election, the Coalition won 77 seats, Labor 68, independents 5 and the Greens winning the single seat of Melbourne.</p>
<p>One possible scenario in 2022 sees the Coalition winning 72 seats, Labor 71, the Greens two, and independents six. In that hung parliament, I would expect Morrison to remain prime minister.</p>
<p>A second possible scenario sees Labor winning 72 seats, the Coalition 71, the Greens two, and independents six. In that hung parliament, I would expect Labor leader Anthony Albanese to replace Morrison as prime minister.</p>
<h2>Independents in 2022</h2>
<p>So, who would be these six independents? </p>
<p>Based on my analysis, I predict Andrew Wilkie (Clark, Tasmania), Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo, SA), Zali Steggall (Warringah, NSW) and Bob Katter (Kennedy, Queensland) will be re-elected.</p>
<p>Two other key contests are difficult to predict. </p>
<p>Helen Haines is also hoping to be re-elected in Indi. However, there were only 2,816 votes between her and the Liberal candidate in 2019, and we are yet to know who her Liberal competitor is in 2022. </p>
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<p>In Wentworth, Dave Sharma, the Liberal winner, was only 2,346 ahead of defeated independent Kerryn Phelps. In 2022, Spender – who is well-connected and enjoys a high profile in the community – is trying to unseat Sharma. </p>
<p>Bearing in mind 100,956 formal votes were cast in Indi and 89,754 in Wentworth, these seats are only held by very small majorities.</p>
<p>Serious speculation exists the independents may win in Goldstein (Daniel), Flinders (Despi O’Connor), Hume (Penny Ackery), Mackellar (Sophie Scamps) and North Sydney (Kylea Tink). </p>
<p>In 2019, the contests in those seats were between Liberal and Labor candidates, so this makes these contests very difficult to predict. </p>
<p>As we approach an election year, a sensible, educated guess is there will be about six (or at most seven) independents elected, in Clark, Kennedy, Mayo and Warringah, plus two or three others out of the seats identified above. </p>
<h2>Nothing new here</h2>
<p>This will of course matter to the composition of the 47th parliament, but I don’t think we are seeing a new phenomenon. </p>
<p>If the 47th parliament is hung, then history tells us the election for a 48th is likely to deliver a clear result to one side or the other. And the electoral system for the lower house means the two-party system is not going anywhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malcolm Mackerras does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Each day seems to bring a new announcement of an independent taking on a high-profile Liberal candidate.Malcolm Mackerras, Distinguished Fellow, PM Glynn Institute, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1286702020-01-27T12:20:16Z2020-01-27T12:20:16ZDon’t be fooled – most independents are partisans too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309116/original/file-20200108-107224-hy3p1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The identity that people choose most often is actually 'independent' – not Democratic or Republican.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/democrats-vs-republicans-facing-off-ideological-466431008">Victor Moussa/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Will Donald Trump win reelection in 2020? To find out, you’d think you could just look up whether more Americans are registered as Republicans than Democrats.</p>
<p>But the truth is, it doesn’t really matter which party you register with on paper. Besides, <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/">19 states</a> don’t even register voters by party. </p>
<p>What really matters is what political scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9tEg468AAAAJ&hl=en">like</a> <a href="http://www.christopherjdevine.com/">myself</a> call your “<a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">political identity</a>” – your psychological attachment to a political group, such as <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/338457/american_voter_revisited">a party</a> or <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-014-9280-6">an ideological movement</a>.</p>
<p>That’s why political science surveys <a href="https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/top-tables/?id=21">ask people</a>, “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?”</p>
<p>This question aims to find out how you see yourself – essentially, which team are you on? This is how many people make sense of the political world.</p>
<h2>American independents?</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/245801/americans-continue-embrace-political-independence.aspx">Gallup polling firm</a>, the identity that people choose most often is actually “independent” – not Democratic or Republican. In 2019, 42% of Americans chose this label – up from the low 30s just 15 years earlier, in 2004. </p>
<p>However, three-quarters of these “independents” admit, when asked, that they lean toward favoring the Democratic or Republican Party. Judging by how they vote or what they think of national political leaders, the truth is that these “leaners” really are <a href="http://themonkeycage.org/2009/12/three_myths_about_political_in/">partisans rather than independents</a>. Apparently, many people who like to think of themselves as independent-minded and free of party influence aren’t. </p>
<p>So, why call themselves independents? Typically, according to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/independent-politics/23F3E25D6AE3A35E94993C7D4409FA5D">one leading study</a>, it is “not because they disagree with the parties ideologically or politically but because being a party member is embarrassing.”</p>
<p>In fact, only <a href="https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/top-tables/?id=21">about 10%</a> of Americans are what political scientists call “pure independents” – that is, people who identify as independents and claim not to favor either of the two major parties. Nor has that percentage grown in recent years. This means that the vast majority of Americans – consistently around 90% – are partisans, whether they like to admit it or not. </p>
<p>So, which party do more Americans identify with – Democratic or Republican?</p>
<p>The Democratic Party, usually.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/267239/democrats-hold-edge-party-affiliation-3rd-quarter.aspx">Gallup poll</a> in late 2019, 47% of Americans either called themselves Democrats or admitted leaning toward the Democratic Party, versus 42% for Republicans and 11% independents. However, there are some signs that Republicans gained ground on Democrats in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx">recent months</a>.</p>
<p>Historically speaking, there have <a href="http://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/">always been more Democrats</a> than Republicans in the American electorate – with rare and very brief exceptions – ever since Gallup began polling party identification in the 1930s.</p>
<p>But identifying with a party is not the same as voting for it. Self-identified Democrats are less likely than Republicans to turn out to vote – particularly in <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/">midterm elections</a>. This is because <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Is-Voting-for-Young-People-4th-Edition/Wattenberg/p/book/9781138962408">young people</a> and other Democratic constituencies tend to be more engaged by the spectacle of a presidential election.</p>
<p>That should be good news for Democrats this year - since, in the 2018 midterms, they won back the House of Representatives. It figures that Democrats would be even more energized to defeat Donald Trump at the polls in 2020. Right?</p>
<p>Not so fast. Recently, Gallup asked Americans whether they are <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/268136/high-enthusiasm-voting-heading-2020.aspx">more enthusiastic about voting in 2020</a> than in previous elections. As it turns out, Republicans are just as enthusiastic about voting as Democrats. This is unusual. In previous elections, the party out of power always expressed more enthusiasm. But not this time. In 2020, partisans on both sides are highly energized. </p>
<p>The good news for Democrats is that there may be more of them to mobilize in 2020 than there are Republicans. The bad news is that Republicans are <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx">united</a> behind President Trump – and ready to vote. </p>
<p>Will Democrats nominate a presidential candidate who can fire up their party’s base, too? Chances are, that will matter more than winning over the small slice of American voters who don’t identify with either party.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/partisanship-runs-deep-in-america-even-among-independents-104884">an article that originally ran on Oct. 17, 2018</a>.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173992019-05-20T05:31:14Z2019-05-20T05:31:14ZLabor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275346/original/file-20190520-69192-2abrac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If Labor had won on Saturday, Bill Shorten would have been the least popular party leader ever elected prime minister, according to election data.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Polls had predicted a narrow win for Labor in this election, so what explains the Coalition victory? Data from the <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/about/">Australian Election Study</a> (AES), based on public opinion surveys conducted after every federal election from 1987 to 2016, provide some indications as to what long-term trends likely contributed to the result.</p>
<p>This includes rising voter disaffection with the major parties and an associated rise in support for independents and minor parties. Adding to the problems for Labor was Bill Shorten’s lack of popularity among voters when compared to other party leaders over the past three decades. </p>
<p>And not least, Labor’s focus on tax policies in the campaign was unwise given the long-term view among voters that the party is less reliable on economic issues. </p>
<h2>The rise of independents and minor parties</h2>
<p>Voters have become increasingly dissatisfied with democratic politics in Australia. Although the Coalition did win enough seats to form a majority government, voters have been gradually drifting away from the major parties in recent elections and casting protest votes for minor parties and independents in greater numbers. </p>
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<p>In this election, the historically safe Liberal seat of Warringah in Sydney <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-loss-in-warringah-shows-voters-rejecting-an-out-of-touch-candidate-and-a-nasty-style-of-politics-117379">went to the centrist independent</a>, Zali Steggall. Another centrist independent, Kerryn Phelps, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/election-2019-kerryn-phelps-to-concede-wentworth-to-dave-sharma/11128954">came close to defeating Liberal Dave Sharma in Wentworth</a> for the second time in the past year. Voters in these electorates may align with the Liberals on economic issues, but they are socially much more progressive than conservative elements within the party.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/minor-parties-perform-well-in-federal-election-and-reconfirm-the-power-of-preference-deals-117192">Minor parties perform well in federal election and reconfirm the power of preference deals</a>
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<p>While progressive voters in Sydney have increasingly moved toward centrist independents, many voters in Queensland, and to a lesser extent elsewhere around the country, <a href="https://theconversation.com/minor-parties-perform-well-in-federal-election-and-reconfirm-the-power-of-preference-deals-117192">moved to parties on the populist right</a>. Many of the preferences for these parties were directed to the Coalition, contributing to the election outcome. </p>
<p>So, although the Coalition won enough seats to form a majority government, there was a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">small swing overall against both Labor and the Coalition</a> in favour of minor parties, underscoring voter disaffection with traditional party politics.</p>
<h2>Shorten’s popularity problem</h2>
<p>Leadership is not the only factor that matters in elections, but it is important. According to AES data, in eight of the last 11 elections, the party with the most popular leader won. The exceptions are the elections won by John Howard in 1998 and 2001, and Paul Keating’s win in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/issues-that-swung-elections-the-unlosable-election-of-1993-still-resonates-loudly-114924">1993 “unlosable” election</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian Election Study has been tracking leader evaluations based on surveys of voters since 1987, providing a good indication of what it takes, at the minimum, for a leader to win an election. The AES has found that generally around 10% of voters cast their ballots based on party leaders.</p>
<p>This can fluctuate depending on leader popularity. When a very popular Rudd was Labor leader in 2007, 20% of Labor voters cast their ballots based on the leader. In contrast, in the 2016 election when Shorten was leader, just 6% of Labor voters did so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-should-labor-jump-to-new-generation-leader-and-morrison-steal-some-shorten-policies-117382">View from The Hill: Should Labor jump to new generation leader – and Morrison steal some Shorten policies?</a>
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<p>Shorten’s unpopularity <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/bill-shorten-scott-morrison-australia-election.html">has been much discussed</a> in the lead-up to this election. He consistently lagged behind Scott Morrison, and before that Malcolm Turnbull, as preferred prime minister, even while Labor outperformed the Coalition in polls on the two party-preferred basis.</p>
<p>Over the last 30 years, the least popular prime minister to win an election was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-the-popular-choice-emphatic-win-but-approval-rating-could-be-a-lot-better-20130908-2te74.html">Tony Abbott in 2013</a>. According to AES surveys, his average evaluation by voters was 4.3 on a scale from zero (strongly dislike) to ten (strongly like). Despite being such an unpopular leader, he benefited from the leadership dramas between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard that dominated Labor’s time in government from 2007-13. </p>
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<p>In comparison, Shorten’s evaluation in the same survey in 2016 was 4.2 out of ten, lower than any election winner on record. Moreover, the AES has been asking voters to evaluate the party leaders in terms of leadership characteristics since 1993, based on factors like strong leadership, trustworthiness, honesty, intelligence, competence, knowledge and the ability to be inspiring, compassionate and sensible. </p>
<p>The 2016 data showed that Shorten was the poorest performer across these characteristics as a whole in the 23 years the questions had been asked about major party leaders, scoring lowest on seven of the nine characteristics. </p>
<p>So, given this evidence from the 2016 election, why did Labor retain such an unpopular leader? First, the new rules surrounding leadership changes introduced by Rudd in 2013 made it more difficult not just to remove sitting PMs, but also to change the leader while in opposition. </p>
<p>Labor was also eager to project an image of stability following the years of infighting by Gillard and Rudd. Lastly, Labor performed better than expected in the 2016 election (despite the loss), giving Shorten a mandate to continue on for another shot in 2019. </p>
<h2>Taxes as a policy centrepiece</h2>
<p>In recent elections, health, education and management of the economy have been the main issues that voters mention most frequently in AES surveys. </p>
<p>In the ten elections between 1990 and 2016, Labor polled better than the Coalition as the preferred party on health by an average of 17 percentage points, and on education by 16 points. On management of the economy, however, the Coalition has polled better by an average of 19 points over the last three elections.</p>
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<p>Taxation has rarely been among the top issues in elections, the main exception being 1998 when the main issue was the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/Background_Papers/bp9798/98bp01">introduction of a GST</a>. But in this election, Labor chose tax policy as one of its policy centrepieces. </p>
<p>This choice was unwise for three reasons. First, Labor has consistently polled worse than the Coalition on taxation in AES surveys over the past 26 years, although the two parties did draw close in the 2016 election.</p>
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<p>Second, Labor was unable to adequately explain its tax policies to the electorate in this election campaign. <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270125.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199270125-e-027">Studies</a> show voters are influenced most by their perceptions of how party policy will affect the overall performance of the economy — what is called “sociotropic” voting. In the absence of a link between Labor’s tax policies and better economic performance in the 2019 campaign, many voters simply saw the proposed changes as an unnecessary imposition.</p>
<p>Third, Labor argued that the tax changes <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-s-32-billion-plan-to-tax-the-top-end-of-town-will-hit-10-per-cent-of-taxpayers-20190508-p51lf9.html">would affect only a small section of the electorate</a>, typically less than one in ten. While the direct effect may have been small, this ignored the much larger group of voters who aspire to gain an investment property, for example, and might have been impacted by Labor’s policies. </p>
<p>Australia has some of the highest levels of property and share investment in the world. The 2016 AES survey found that one in ten respondents said they or someone close to them owned an investment property, while one in three owned shares. The proportion of the electorate <em>potentially</em> affected by Labor’s proposed changes was, therefore, quite sizeable.</p>
<p>Though many political analysts are searching for possible answers to the Coalition’s surprising win, the AES data suggests it wasn’t so surprising after all – long-term trends are consistent with a Labor loss, given the various factors in play in this election. </p>
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<p><em>The above analyses are based on data from Australian Election Study surveys 1987 to 2016, representative public opinion surveys fielded after each Australian federal election. Data for the 2019 election will be available once the post-election survey has been fielded. For reports, data and further information see the Australian Election Study website:</em> <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org">www.australianelectionstudy.org</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As part of the team behind the Australian Election Study, Ian McAllister receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Cameron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Election data suggests the Coalition’s victory wasn’t so surprising after all – long-term trends pointed toward a Labor loss, given the various factors in play in this election.Sarah Cameron, Research Fellow, University of SydneyIan McAllister, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1171822019-05-16T20:09:48Z2019-05-16T20:09:48ZThe 2019 election on Twitter: Watergate, mums, and well-organised independents<p>The 2019 Australian federal election has many stories, but a handful stood out especially clearly on social media. As in <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-weeks-into-ausvotes-how-are-the-parties-doing-on-twitter-17304">2013</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ausvotes-a-final-update-from-the-social-media-hustings-61922">2016</a>, we have been busy capturing the activities by and directed at the Twitter accounts of House and Senate candidates, from the close of electoral rolls to election day itself.</p>
<p>This provides an insight into the most visible candidates and parties, and shows how attention on them ebbs and flows over the course of the campaign. It also points to some specific themes and events that have emerged at various points in time.</p>
<h2>An independent invasion?</h2>
<p>As usual during federal campaigns, Liberal and Labor candidates received the greatest share of attention by a substantial margin. But the story of this election is the engagement with independent candidates. In 2016, over the course of a 25-day campaign, independents received some 46,000 retweets and mentions. In 2019, in 25 days of campaigning so far, these numbers have more than doubled to 95,000 tweets involving independent candidates.</p>
<p>Among the most prominent independent candidates are Zali Steggall (challenging Tony Abbott in Warringah), Kerryn Phelps (campaigning to hold Wentworth, which she won after Malcolm Turnbull left parliament), and Rob Oakeshott (the former independent MP looking to make a comeback in Cowper). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-independents-part-of-a-green-left-conspiracy-new-research-finds-they-are-more-the-sensible-centre-117094">Are independents part of a 'green-left' conspiracy? New research finds they are more the 'sensible centre'</a>
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<p>Together, the three account for some two-thirds of all tweets directed at independent candidates. If there is an independent invasion this election, as <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/blue-ribbon-battles-independent-invaders-could-decide-election-20190503-p51jp5">some media coverage predicts</a>, it remains strongly centred on a handful of high-profile challengers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mentions and retweets of candidates in the 2019 Australian federal election, aggregated by party affiliation, April 22 to May 16.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Axel Bruns/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>No retweets = no endorsement?</h2>
<p>Twitter users’ engagement with independents, as well as with some opposition parties, is also qualitatively different from how they engage with government candidates. Labor, independent, and Greens candidates receive considerably more retweets than their Coalition counterparts. </p>
<p>Of all the tweets directed at opposition candidates, between 17% (ALP) and 24% (Greens) are retweets. Meanwhile, fewer than 3% of tweets at Liberal candidates, and fewer than 1% of tweets at National or LNP candidates, are retweets.</p>
<p>Many Twitter users take pains to stress that retweets do not necessarily mean endorsement, and this is true in principle. But what this significant lack of retweets for Coalition candidates does mean is that their own tweets receive considerably less amplification and visibility than those of their challengers. </p>
<p>Every retweet makes the original tweet visible to a new set of followers. If you don’t receive any retweets, you’re stuck only with those users who follow your own account. This may be a substantial number for Coalition frontbenchers (Prime Minister Scott Morrison, for example, has <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP">147,000 followers</a>), but it can’t compete with the added reach that retweets generate.</p>
<p>We have seen this lopsided pattern before. In 2016, Labor, independents and Greens candidates received considerably more retweets than Coalition accounts. Notably, in both the 2016 and 2019 elections, the Coalition government was on the back foot in the polls. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://mia.sagepub.com/content/early/2016/09/15/1329878X16669001">2013</a>, on the other hand, at the end of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years, neither Labor nor the Coalition attracted substantial numbers of retweets, and only the Greens enjoyed substantial amplification of their election messages on Twitter.</p>
<h2>Watergate washes through the system</h2>
<p>In any election campaign we have tracked on Twitter since 2010, the accounts of the major party leaders invariably received the greatest level of engagement – this is an indication of how presidential Australian politics has become, in spite of our electoral system.</p>
<p>However, immediately after the start of the official 2019 campaign, former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce briefly and unwittingly stole the show. For a day or two, he was the most mentioned Australian politician on Twitter because of his association with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-23/water-buybacks-everything-we-know/11037798">Murray-Darling water buyback controversy</a>. The associated hashtag #Watergate also trended during that time. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Engagement per hour (mentions and retweets) with the six most visible candidate accounts in the 2019 Australian federal election, April 22 to May 16.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Axel Bruns/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Even later in that first week of the campaign, Joyce as well as energy minister Angus Taylor (who had been a director of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/angus-taylor-says-he-did-not-set-up-caymans-structure-on-80m-water-buyback">Cayman Islands company</a> connected to the controversy) continued to receive substantial mentions on Twitter.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-watergate-heres-what-taxpayers-need-to-know-about-water-buybacks-115838">Australia's 'watergate': here's what taxpayers need to know about water buybacks</a>
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<p>From week two of the campaign onwards, #Watergate receded, and the focus turned strongly towards the leaders. This was due especially to the three televised leaders’ debates during that time. </p>
<p>But on May 8 the focus turned overwhelmingly to Bill Shorten, as he <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/bill-shorten-mother-daily-telegraph-editorial-nowra-australian-election-news/ee072382-35e1-42b3-91e5-991fff26a107">responded forcefully</a> to a <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/labor-leader-bill-shortens-heartfelt-story-about-his-mother-was-missing-one-vital-fact/news-story/eeab8c4d16e3f55304e06eaa704699c9">Daily Telegraph story</a> questioning his late mother’s life story.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-shorten-turns-daily-telegraph-sledge-to-advantage-116740">View from The Hill: Shorten turns Daily Telegraph sledge to advantage</a>
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<p>Our data clearly show how strongly that moment cut through the noise of the campaign: from midday to the evening news, more than 50% of all candidate mentions were directed at <a href="https://twitter.com/billshortenMP">Bill Shorten’s account</a>. “Mum” was also one of the highest-ranked topic areas in tweets directed at Labor party candidates over the entire campaign.</p>
<p>Finally, as news of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/bob-hawke-dies-former-australian-prime-minister-and-labor-leader/6562902">former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke’s death</a> broke on Thursday evening, another ex-PM found himself in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Tony Abbott’s tweet featuring a politically partisan tribute to Hawke was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/pea-for-a-heart-tony-abbott-criticised-over-partisan-tribute-to-bob-hawke">widely condemned on Twitter and beyond</a>, and made him the most tweeted-at politician by a wide margin that evening. There was plenty of criticism, but very few retweets.</p>
<h2>Taxes and truth</h2>
<p>During any campaign, political parties attempt to push particular agendas and framings into the public discourse, some of which are picked up and amplified by social media. For this election, the major topics in our Twitter sample are: taxes; climate change; truth in political advertising and media; and workers’ rights and conditions.</p>
<p>Topic prominence isn’t necessarily uniform across party lines though. When looking at specific parties or politicians mentioned by name on Twitter in association with certain topics, a more detailed picture of public sentiment emerges. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top topic rankings in tweets directed towards specific parties in the 2019 Australian federal election, April 22 to May 14.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Angus/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span></span>
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<p>Labor has been berated for its “death tax”, despite this <a href="https://factcheck.afp.com/no-australias-labor-party-greens-and-actu-did-not-sign-agreement-introduce-death-tax">not being the party’s policy at all</a>. By contrast, Labor has garnered support online for its positions on protecting penalty rates, jobs, and restoring funding to public services.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party didn’t escape the Watergate scandal, copping criticism for its role in this issue along with the Nationals. It has also been criticised for cuts to essential services and what many Twitter users see as unfair economic policy. However, the party’s base has supported its messages relating to reducing national debt. </p>
<p>The Greens and independents were understandably aligned in the eyes of Twitter users on the issue of climate change, with most users lending support to Greens and independent candidates for progressive policies and action on this issue.</p>
<p>Finally, despite its millions spent on marketing, and early polls suggesting a bump in support, the United Australia Party has received some of the most critical attention on Twitter, with discussions about unpaid workers, preference deals, power grabs, taxpayer dollars, and coal at the centre of this online backlash.</p>
<h2>Interactions between candidates</h2>
<p>But how are the candidates engaging with each other? We used social network analysis techniques to gain a deeper understanding of this question. In our visualisation of those interactions (mentions and retweets), the three major parties are most prominent: Labor (red), Liberal (blue), and Greens (green), along with a considerable amount of activity by independents (yellow). </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Network map of interactions (mentions and retweets) between candidates’ accounts in the 2019 Australian federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Graham/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span></span>
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<p>Unsurprisingly, the network shows that candidates from the same party interact more often with each other. For instance, the bottom part of the network shows a dense cluster of Greens candidates with strong, reciprocated links between one another. </p>
<p>The Labor contingent is similarly actively engaged with one another, with <a href="https://twitter.com/grahamperrettmp">Graham Perrett</a> one of the most active points of connection. </p>
<p>The pattern is not as obvious for Liberal candidates, however, who appear more spread out in the network and don’t show the same level of activity and engagement with each other. This arguably lends credence to Labor’s claim throughout the campaign to have a unified team, in contrast to an internally riven Liberal party.</p>
<p>Overall, Labor candidates were 2.3 times more likely to interact with each other than Liberal candidates during the campaign. Similarly, Greens candidates were 3.7 times more likely than Labor candidates, and 8.3 times more likely than Liberals, to interact with fellow candidates of their own party. </p>
<p>This pattern is even more pronounced for independents, who are four times more likely to interact with each other compared with Labor candidates, and nine times more likely compared with Liberal candidates. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-message-is-light-on-ideology-and-strong-on-soothing-ahead-of-the-election-58813">Morrison's message is light on ideology and strong on soothing ahead of the election</a>
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<p>Such patterns show the degree of coordination between candidates from the same party: they are looking to boost each other’s election messaging by mentioning and retweeting one another. Fifteen prominent independents, including Steggall and Oakeshott, have also adopted this tactic by <a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11084804">forming a loose alliance</a>. </p>
<p>By contrast, the fact that Liberal candidates are least likely to engage with one another is perhaps also a reflection of their electoral positioning. With opinion polls largely pointing to defeat, Coalition candidates are forced to take the fight to their opponents — on Twitter and elsewhere.</p>
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<p><em>This article was updated on May 17, 2019, to include key developments from the penultimate day of the campaign.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Future Fellowship FT130100703 Understanding Intermedia Information Flows in the Australian Online Public Sphere and Discovery DP160101211 Journalism beyond the Crisis: Emerging Forms, Practices and Uses. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Angus receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the Centre of Excellence for the Dynamics of Language.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council as part of a Discovery Project, 'Government Web Portals as New Government Actors' (DP170101997).</span></em></p>Analysis of tweets from the election campaign reveal two key trends: independents are organising, and embattled Liberal candidates are having to take the fight to their rivals.Axel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyDaniel Angus, Associate Professor in Digital Communication, Queensland University of TechnologyTimothy Graham, Senior lecturer, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170942019-05-16T04:03:09Z2019-05-16T04:03:09ZAre independents part of a ‘green-left’ conspiracy? New research finds they are more the ‘sensible centre’<p>Australia’s major political parties are not popular institutions. Minor parties and independent candidates have been chipping away at their primary vote for decades. While less than 10% of voters cast a ballot for them in the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1011/11rp04">1950s and 1960s</a>, almost one in four voters turned away from mainstream parties in <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-20499-NAT.htm">2016</a>.</p>
<p>According to the latest <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a>, it seems unlikely this trend will change at this election. The major parties are understandably rattled and after a group of independents released a coordinated <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/campaign-ad-by-a-group-of-15-independent/11084698">campaign ad</a> last week, some <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6033999036001">pundits</a> have been quick to portray them as a new “green-left force” determined to bring Labor into power. </p>
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<p>So, is this new wave of independents really part of a coordinated and cohesive left-wing conspiracy, akin to a new political party? Probably not. </p>
<p>First off, the claim is at odds with the intention of some of the very same independents to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/warringah-debate-abbott-rival-steggall-confirms-she-would-back-coalition-in-hung-parliament">support a Coalition minority government</a> if the election returns a hung parliament.</p>
<p>What’s more, data from <a href="https://australia.smartvote.org/en/home">smartvote Australia</a>, a voting advice application developed by the Australian National University (ANU), shows most independents actually take policy positions somewhere between Labor and the Liberals. There is also considerable variance in the positions they take.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274571/original/file-20190515-60537-1d8vech.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison of independent candidates with Labor, Liberal and Green positions in 2-dimensional ideological space.</span>
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<p>In contrast to party-centric projects that are based on expert coding, smartvote asks voters and their local candidates to fill out the same <a href="https://australia.smartvote.org/en/home">35-question survey</a>. It then matches voters with the local candidates who align the closest with their views (and, if you are curious, you can see how you compare to candidates and parties running in your electorate <a href="https://australia.smartvote.org/en/home">here</a>).</p>
<p>Smartvote invited all candidates and parties running for parliament in the 2019 election to participate. One week out from the election, it contained information from about 70% of the 50-plus parties that are fielding candidates. In addition, smartvote includes the answers of 40% of all independents running for the election – some of whom are incumbents or have a good chance of winning on May 18. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-influence-will-independents-and-minor-parties-have-this-election-please-explain-115913">How much influence will independents and minor parties have this election? Please explain</a>
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<p>Using smartvote, we can take the ideological positions of each candidate and plot them in two-dimensional space. So, what do the data tell us? The figure above shows the ideological positions of 56 independent candidates compared to the positions of the two main parties and the Greens.</p>
<p>Most independents who participated in smartvote find themselves somewhere between Labor and the Liberals (what some of them call the “sensible centre”). And while some are more progressive than Labor on the social dimension, none is to the left of Labor on the economic dimension. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274570/original/file-20190515-60563-j0fan.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Most frequent words used in 56 independent candidates’ personal statements.</span>
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<p>We also analysed the personal statements each independent candidate provided to smartvote to explain why they are running for office. Independent candidates overwhelmingly stressed their ties to their local community, the need to do politics differently, and the importance of climate change.</p>
<p>These statements echo the main arguments they are taking into the 2019 campaign – that political parties have failed Australians. They also echo the arguments in the Independents Day video. For example, Kerryn Phelps (Wentworth) starts by saying she “ran as an independent because [she’s] sick of the two major parties”, while Zali Steggall (Warringah) goes further, claiming “the time for political parties is moving on”. </p>
<p>To find out what else they have in common, we examined another of smartvote’s graphical tools, the “smartspider”. This tool allows voters to compare their positions with candidates and parties on six dimensions. In the animation below, we look at the profiles of eight of the “Independents Day” candidates first and then compare them with the two large parties.</p>
<p>Almost all the independents in our sample have a more environmentally-friendly position than the two major parties – the very message they tried to articulate in their ad. Although this differentiates them the most from the two major parties, they hardly outflank the Greens, who get the highest score on the environment. Most independents also remain far from the Greens’ positions on the economic and social dimensions.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/605/Figure_2.gif?1557974891" width="100%"><figcaption>Eight independent candidates’ smartspiders compared to Labor and Liberals’</figcaption></figure>
<p>All data are subject to limitations, and this project is no different. Our sample of 56 independent candidates matches the proportion of women in the population of independent candidates (almost one in four). House of Representative candidates are slightly overrepresented, even though this group accounts for two-thirds of all independent candidates standing for parliament. It also includes candidates from all states and territories except the Northern Territory. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/discontent-with-nationals-in-regional-areas-could-spell-trouble-for-coalition-at-federal-election-115364">Discontent with Nationals in regional areas could spell trouble for Coalition at federal election</a>
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<p>The percentages of candidates from New South Wales and Queensland is very similar to their percentages in the general population. However, candidates from Victoria and South Australia are overrepresented, while Tasmania and the territories are underrepresented.</p>
<p>That said, smartvote is unique in Australia as the only voting advice application to include independents and minor parties. </p>
<p>While independents did not have much success in getting elected to the lower house in 2016, more than a third of Australians voted for minor parties and independents in the Senate.</p>
<p>The result was a record 20 crossbenchers following the last election. With only half the Senate up for election, minor parties and independent candidates will have a harder time at this election.</p>
<p>We do not have to wait long to see whether more independents find themselves sitting in the House after May 18.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite criticism of running a radical left agenda, new research shows most independents’ views are somewhere between the major parties.Feo Snagovsky, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Australian National UniversityPatrick Dumont, Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1159132019-04-30T20:13:41Z2019-04-30T20:13:41ZHow much influence will independents and minor parties have this election? Please explain<p>For some time now, Australian voters have rattled the cage of the political establishment. Frustrated with prime ministerial “coups”, political scandals and policy inertia, growing numbers have <a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-in-politicians-and-government-is-at-an-all-time-low-the-next-government-must-work-to-fix-that-110886">turned away from</a> the major parties. </p>
<p>Does this mean minor parties and independent candidates will have a significant impact on the coming federal election?</p>
<p>Anti-major party sentiment doesn’t usually disrupt the numbers in parliament by much. Only five of 150 seats weren’t won by the major parties at the 2016 federal election, despite a national minor party/independent vote of over 23%. But a nationwide minor party Senate vote of over 35% in 2016 resulted in a record 20 crossbenchers – helped by a lower quota bar at a double dissolution election.</p>
<p>Familiar groups and faces are well placed to capitalise on this sentiment during the current election campaign. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-mis-trust-why-this-election-is-posing-problems-for-the-media-116142">A matter of (mis)trust: why this election is posing problems for the media</a>
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<h2>Chasing the protest vote</h2>
<p>Despite internal instability rocking its New South Wales branch, the Greens will hope to capitalise on growing progressive support (in Victoria especially) and an expected anti-Coalition swing to secure <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/the-fight-for-the-senate-who-gets-the-balance-of-power-and-which-minor-parties-will-survive">Senate influence</a>.</p>
<p>Yet with recent Senate voting rule changes being tested for the first time at a normal half-Senate election, the Greens may in fact <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-the-era-of-the-independents-in-the-box-seat-is-almost-over-20190115-p50rh4.html">struggle to retain</a>, let alone build on, their current nine Senate spots. Final Senate seats in most states will be fought over by a slew of (mainly right-wing) minor parties.</p>
<p>Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP), Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON), and – unlikely as it seems – Fraser Anning’s new <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/fraser-annings-conservative-national-party-has-entered-the-election-race/news-story/efa3511906609fdfa5e783226e1d90f0">Conservative National Party</a> will chase the “protest vote” in all states and (apart from PHON) territories.</p>
<p>But intense competition for the conservative vote means they and other minor parties stand only an outside chance of winning <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-22/queensland-minor-parties-influence-on-federal-election-outcome/11004176">lower house seats</a>. One exception is Bob Katter likely holding Kennedy in north Queensland for his eponymous Australian Party.</p>
<p>Still, an expected high minor party vote will keep the major parties – and the media – focused on preferencing arrangements throughout the campaign. These preferences will likely play a key role in electing minor party candidates to the Senate, potentially returning familiar faces like One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/confronting-queensland-senate-ticket-sees-far-right-on-far-left-20190424-p51gv1.html">Queensland</a>.</p>
<h2>Deference to preferences</h2>
<p>Recent opinion poll results have unexpectedly placed Palmer’s party ahead of the field of minor parties on the right. Months of <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-can-55-million-get-clive-palmer-back-into-parliamentary-game-115811">saturation advertising</a>, it seems, have imprinted the billionaire’s messaging on voters’ minds. Yet this sudden poll prominence, like Palmer’s billboard pledge to “make Australia great”, is largely <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-palmers-party-has-good-support-in-newspoll-seat-polls-but-is-it-realistic-115802">illusory</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, both major parties have responded to this seeming upsurge in UAP support. The Coalition has hurriedly concluded a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/25/liberal-party-strikes-deal-to-exchange-election-preferences-with-clive-palmer">preferencing arrangement</a> that sees Palmer and Prime Minister Scott Morrison somewhat “<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-all-is-forgiven-in-the-liberal-embrace-of-palmer-116011">reconciled</a>”. The deal might deliver much-needed preferences to Coalition MPs in marginal seats, particularly in Queensland. It also increases the chances of Palmer candidates – and the man himself – winning a Senate seat.</p>
<p>But these are big “maybes”. Minor party voters are renowned for following their own preference choices. In 2013, voters’ preferences from Palmer’s United Party candidates split only 54% the <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/its-not-what-you-ask-its-how-you-ask-it/">Coalition’s way</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly stung by the attention being shown to Palmer, Hanson has announced PHON will preference <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/one-nation-to-preference-labor-last-in-four-key-seats">Labor last</a> in some key marginal seats held by Liberal incumbents. That includes Peter Dutton, whose seat of Dickson is under siege. In 2016, PHON took a different approach when it preferenced against sitting MPs, costing the Coalition its hold on Queensland seats like Herbert and Longman.</p>
<p>As part of the same deal, PHON will exchange preferences with the Nationals – whose leader Michael McCormack <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/it-just-makes-sense-nationals-leader-michael-mccormack-spruiks-deal-with-one-nation-20190429-p51i7v.html">claimed</a> “it just made sense” – lifting the Nationals’ hopes in marginal and at-risk regional seats.</p>
<p>Labor has also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-brokers-deal-between-derryn-hinch-and-labor-20190425-p51h9z.html">sealed a deal</a> to boost its chances in marginal Victorian seats, concluding an arrangement with Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. This will see Labor how-to-vote cards in tightly contested seats like Dunkley and Corangamite suggest second preferences go to Hinch’s Senate candidates ahead of the Greens (repeating Labor’s approach at the 2016 election).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-shorten-had-the-content-morrison-had-the-energy-in-first-debate-116218">View from The Hill: Shorten had the content, Morrison had the energy in first debate</a>
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<h2>The reputational risks of preference deals</h2>
<p>But doing preference deals with minor parties carries reputational risks, as former Western Australia Premier Colin Barnett <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/federal-politics/colin-barnett-warns-against-liberal-preference-deal-with-hanson-at-the-federal-election-ng-b881142342z">has warned</a>. As has often been the case with personality-driven outfits, choosing suitable or qualified candidates easily brings minor parties undone. </p>
<p>Anning’s party has already stumbled badly. A pair of candidates in Victoria and the ACT has been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/fraser-anning-s-victorian-candidate-julie-hoskin-bankrupt-ineligible-20190425-p51h3m.html">called into question</a>, and a party supporter allegedly assaulted journalists <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/photographer-hurt-in-scuffle-at-fraser-anning-press-conference-20190426-p51hig.html">in Sydney</a>.</p>
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<p>Hanson’s party, no stranger to this pitfall, is still hosing down the controversy of the Al Jazeera taped conversations with party insiders, which has likely cost the party some support. Freshly released video footage has now forced Queensland Senate candidate, Steve Dickson, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/30/one-nations-steve-dickson-offers-to-resign-over-strip-club-footage">resign in disgrace</a>, in another blow to the often shambolic party’s standing.</p>
<p>Palmer’s candidates are similarly coming under scrutiny with doubts raised over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/question-mark-over-eligibility-of-at-least-19-clive-palmer-candidates">citizenship qualifications</a>, putting legitimate doubts into voters’ minds just as pre-polling has commenced.</p>
<h2>Familiarity is key for independents</h2>
<p>The best chances for independents are in lower house seats, yet there’s been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/independents-wont-matter-as-much-as-you-think-next-election/10716834">only a dozen</a> elected to parliament in the last several decades. Those who’ve broken through in election campaigns, like Kerryn Phelps at last year’s Wentworth byelection, typically benefit when there’s some controversy or ill-feeling towards an incumbent or their party.</p>
<p>But in the absence of full-on media glare of a high-profile by-election contest, Phelps might struggle to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/kerryn-phelps-wentworth-win-could-be-short-lived/10432386">hold her seat</a> – assuming the angst of local voters over Malcolm Turnbull’s deposing has dissipated. </p>
<p>Personal profile and high media interest puts Zali Steggall in with a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/10/tony-abbott-on-track-to-lose-warringah-to-zali-steggall-poll-shows">chance to unseat</a> Tony Abbott in Warringah. Likewise, a well-organised local campaign structure such as “Voices for Indi” behind Cathy McGowan’s hopeful successor, Helen Haines, can <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-14/helen-haines-ready-to-take-baton-from-cathy-mcgowan/10713544">make the difference</a> – though transition of support from one independent to another isn’t assured.</p>
<p>Newcomers on the ballot paper generally find the odds against them. Candidates with an established record and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-09/zali-steggall-helen-haines-independents-australian-politics/10786984">voter recognition</a>, such as Andrew Wilkie in Tasmania’s Clark (like the Greens’ Adam Bandt in Melbourne and Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie in South Australia’s Mayo), enjoy an easier path to reelection.</p>
<p>Similarly, Rob Oakeshott is given a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/rob-oakeshott-announces-a-run-for-federal-seat-of-cowper/10716914">good chance</a> of winning the New South Wales seat of Cowper from retiring Nationals MP, Luke Hartsuyker. He carries strong name recognition from his time as Independent MP for the neighbouring seat of Lyne.</p>
<p>But recognition alone mightn’t be enough for Julia Banks, the former Liberal MP for Chisholm in Victoria who is now challenging in Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders. Her <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/labor-warns-coalition-deals-with-rightwing-minor-parties-will-cause-chaos">decision</a> to preference Labor’s candidate above Hunt might turn away potential support from Liberal-leaning voters, yet could put the seat within Labor’s grasp.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-grey-tsunami-than-youthquake-despite-record-youth-enrolments-australias-voter-base-is-ageing-115842">More grey tsunami than youthquake: despite record youth enrolments, Australia’s voter base is ageing</a>
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<h2>Minors and independents cloud the outcome</h2>
<p>The chances of an “independent tide” sweeping several seats this election is unlikely, in part due to the ability of major parties to drown out the competition. And counter to long speculation about the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-the-major-parties-on-the-nose-and-minors-on-the-march-its-not-that-simple-93569">march of the minors</a>”, there could in fact be a reduced crossbench in both the lower house and <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/voters-are-back-in-charge-in-the-senate/">Senate</a>. </p>
<p>But voter dissatisfaction with the major parties persists, and minor party preferences are likely to play a critical role in many seats.</p>
<p>The prominence of minor parties will maintain an air of unpredictability for the remainder of the campaign, clouding an election outcome many saw not long ago as a foregone conclusion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Voter dissatisfaction with the major parties means minor party preferences are likely to play a critical role in many seats, making the election outcome hard to predict.Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1153642019-04-22T20:22:02Z2019-04-22T20:22:02ZDiscontent with Nationals in regional areas could spell trouble for Coalition at federal election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269876/original/file-20190417-139088-1k1kfg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Nationals, led by Michael McCormack, are facing significant challenges in several seats.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Coalition has been buoyed by the re-election of the Berejiklian government at the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-a-third-term-in-nsw-with-few-seats-changing-hands-113035">New South Wales state election</a>. But this in turn has been tempered by the poor performance of the National Party. The Nationals suffered swings averaging 20%, primarily to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF) but also to well-known independents.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-nsw-result-gives-federal-liberals-a-boost-in-the-mind-games-114153">View from The Hill: NSW result gives federal Liberals a boost in the mind games</a>
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<p>The SFF’s Roy Butler captured an 18% swing against the Nationals to win the seat of Barwon, and in Murray, the SFF‘s Helen Dalton defeated the sitting National member, Austin Evans, with a 20% swing. In Wagga Wagga, sitting independent Joe McGirr comfortably retained the seat he won in the 2018 byelection, and in Dubbo, the Nationals held on in spite of a swing of 23% against them.</p>
<p>So why is the Nationals brand on the nose in regional Australia?</p>
<p>When the party leaders Warren Truss and Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-extract-their-pound-of-flesh-from-turnbull-47582">signed their Coalition agreement</a> in 2015, it was accompanied by a “side letter”, unusual for these agreements. It placed water management in the agriculture portfolio under the watch of then-deputy Nationals leader, Barnaby Joyce, and restrained the government from changing its climate and marriage equality policies. </p>
<p>This was described by many at the time as a clear win for the Nationals, but it now looks more like a poisoned chalice.</p>
<p>In the 2019 federal election, several Coalition-held regional seats are being challenged by independents. Many of these independents say they are standing because of the inability of governments to manage water resources. Southern farmers, irrigators and residents clearly agree with this assessment by recently conducting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/farmers-protest-is-a-sign-water-politics-is-about-to-go-into-hyperdrive">a tractor and truck protest</a> in the centre of Albury.</p>
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<p>Other independents cite declining standards of living in the bush as their motive for standing. New NSW state member, Roy Butler, <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/the-vegetarian-cattle-farmer-roy-butler-on-track-to-make-history-in-nsw-election/news-story/c6816ab6abfd8bba62208aeac11c0536">argues that</a> regional communities are losing health services, jobs and investment in infrastructure. This is reflected in the average life expectancy in regional Australia, which is increasing marginally, but at a significantly lower rate than in urban areas. Butler has also taken up concerns about water, describing the “shameful mismanagement of water in the Murray-Darling”. </p>
<p>Nor has the recent federal budget been a circuit breaker for regional Australia. Analysts <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/04/budget-2019-regional-and-older-australians-benefit-least-from-tax-cuts-analysis-shows">have concluded</a> that regional Australia (and older people) would benefit the least from the Coalition’s tax cuts to 2024-25, with middle- and high-income city dwellers faring best. Importantly for many in the regions, little attention was paid in the budget to water management.</p>
<p>The Nationals have also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/farmers-protest-is-a-sign-water-politics-is-about-to-go-into-hyperdrive">been accused</a> by many in regional areas of favouring the big irrigators, ignoring climate change and being out of touch with the electorate. National leaders have not helped by blaming the ABC for “setting rural policy” (Barnaby Joyce) or the drought itself (Darren Chester). </p>
<p>These complaints of regional neglect have manifested in the nomination of a number of strong independents in the federal election. In the Northern NSW seat of Cowper, former independent MP Rob Oakeshott is challenging the Nationals’ Pat Conaghan. Needing a swing of less than 5%, this seat is now very much a marginal one. </p>
<p>While independent Cathy McGowan is not seeking re-election in the Victorian seat of Indi, her supporters have endorsed another independent, Helen Haines. However, Haines faces a tight contest against <a href="https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/5882964/byatt-has-tilt-at-canberra-for-nationals/">former Wodonga Mayor and National</a>, Mark Byatt. She has inherited McGowan’s grassroots organisation, Voices for Indi, which has mounted a campaign drawing support from both the centre and the right. Hubs of the “orange independent movement” have been established throughout the electorate to act as policy touchstones, as well as providing feedback to the candidate.</p>
<p>In Farrer, Albury Mayor Kevin Mack hopes to unseat the Liberals’ Sussan Ley by adopting a similar grassroots campaign to that in Indi. The “Voices for Farrer” <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/politics/albury-mayor-to-challenge-sussan-ley-for-farrer-seat/news-story/66afcbe01284a896de4dd8c19844e1a3">group is</a> frustrated by the failure of MPs to address health, education and transport issues, and the inability of government to resolve the water crisis in irrigation areas.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-nation-guns-and-the-queensland-question-what-does-it-all-mean-for-the-2019-federal-election-114280">One Nation, guns and the Queensland question: what does it all mean for the 2019 federal election?</a>
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<p>The sprawling regional seat of Mallee in Victoria has been held by the Nationals for 70 years and <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-224.htm">received a swing of 25%</a> at the last election. However, sitting member Andrew Broad is not recontesting, <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-andrew-broad-forced-to-quit-frontbench-amid-sugar-baby-allegation-108914">leaving political life under a cloud</a>. Local farming identity, Ray Kingston, another former local mayor, is standing as an independent. It is likely he will win votes from the Nationals, but whether or not it will be enough is debatable. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-06/race-for-federal-seat-of-mallee-heating-up/10974008">Kingston echoes</a> the refrain of other regional independents when he says “country people aren’t silly, they know we don’t get looked after”.</p>
<p>It has often been argued that there is a disconnection between what voters want and what their representatives are prepared to do. It manifests itself in issues such as marriage equality, climate change mitigation and population policy more generally.</p>
<p>In regional areas, the independents movement has focused on health and education and above all, water management. Frustration with the Nationals is clear. As <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/nsw-election-voting-closes-after-polls-suggest-tight-race/10911728">Roy Butler says</a>, “the loss of regional seats is the price [the Nationals] paid for regional neglect” in NSW.</p>
<p>It may also be a price that the federal Coalition has to pay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Aulich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Water management, declining standard of living and regional Australians feeling neglected have all been cited as reasons for the Nationals being on the nose electorally.Chris Aulich, Adjunct Professor at the University of Canberra, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048842018-10-17T10:28:29Z2018-10-17T10:28:29ZPartisanship runs deep in America - even among ‘independents’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240890/original/file-20181016-165885-uzwian.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dolly the elephant and Dottie the donkey.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-NY-USA-APHS332919-Political-Animals-1972/b785d67d6c4545bbb6a3b6b5fb168914/1/0">AP Photo/Bob Schutz</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/el-partidismo-esta-profundamente-arraigado-en-eeuu-incluso-entre-los-votantes-independientes-105259"><em>Leer en español</em></a>.</p>
<p>In voting, it doesn’t really matter which party you register with on paper. </p>
<p>Besides, <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/">18 states</a> don’t even register voters by party. What really matters is what political scientists like myself call your “<a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">political identity</a>” – your psychological attachment to a political group, such as <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/338457/american_voter_revisited">a party</a> or <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-014-9280-6">an ideological movement</a>.</p>
<p>That’s why political scientists <a href="http://anesold.isr.umich.edu/nesguide/toptable/tab2a_3.htm">ask people</a>, “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?”</p>
<p>Our goal is to find out how you see yourself – essentially, which team are you on? This is how many people make sense of the political world.</p>
<h2>American Independents?</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/225056/americans-identification-independents-back-2017.aspx">Gallup polling firm</a>, the identity that people choose most often is actually “independent” – not Democratic or Republican. In 2017, 42 percent of Americans chose this label – up from the low 30s just 14 years ago, in 2004. </p>
<p>However, three-quarters of these “independents” admit, when asked, that they lean toward favoring the Democratic or Republican Party. Judging by how they vote or what they think of national political leaders, the truth is that these “leaners” really are <a href="http://themonkeycage.org/2009/12/three_myths_about_political_in/">partisans rather than independents</a>. Apparently, many people who like to think of themselves as independent-minded and free of party influence just aren’t.</p>
<p>Only about 10 percent of Americans are what we call “pure independents” – that is, people who identify as independents and claim not to favor either of the two major parties. Nor has that percentage grown in recent years. This means that the vast majority of Americans – consistently around 90 percent – are partisans. </p>
<p>And which party do they favor – Democratic or Republican?</p>
<p>The Democratic Party.</p>
<p>In a 2017 Gallup poll, 47 percent of Americans either called themselves Democrats or admitted leaning toward the Democratic Party, versus 42 percent for Republicans and 11 percent independents.</p>
<p>In fact, there have <a href="http://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/">always been more Democrats</a> than Republicans in the American electorate – with rare and very brief exceptions – ever since Gallup began polling party identification in the 1930s.</p>
<p>It’s important to remember that identifying with a party is not the same as voting for that party. In fact, Democrats are less likely than Republicans to turn out to vote – particularly in <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/">midterm elections</a>. This is because <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Is-Voting-for-Young-People-4th-Edition/Wattenberg/p/book/9781138962408">young people</a> and other Democratic constituencies tend to be more engaged by the spectacle of a presidential election.</p>
<p>As of last month, though, two-thirds of Democrats say that they are “<a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/09/26/voter-enthusiasm-at-record-high-in-nationalized-midterm-environment/">more enthusiastic than usual about voting</a>” in 2018. Fewer Republicans express such enthusiasm about voting in this year’s midterm, for the first time since 2006. In that year, a “blue wave” swept Democrats back into control of the U.S. House and Senate.</p>
<p>Democrats hoping for another “blue wave” in 2018 have plenty of company.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/902972018-01-31T11:41:56Z2018-01-31T11:41:56ZWant to be president of Mexico? There’s an app for that<p>When Mexicans go to the polls to elect their next president in July, their choices will include — for the first time in history — <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21730754-non-party-candidates-will-make-next-years-vote-more-complicated">independent</a> candidates with no political party affiliation. </p>
<p>Last fall, 48 independent aspirants threw their hats in the presidential ring, hoping to <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-angry-voters-reject-major-parties-mexicos-2018-presidential-race-grows-chaotic-86040">cash in on widespread anger at the Mexican political establishment</a>. But only three currently have a credible shot of getting onto the ballot in July, all of whom have previous ties to one of Mexico’s three mainstream parties. </p>
<p>With less than a month left, Jaime “El Bronco” Rodríguez Calderón – the popular renegade governor of Mexico’s northern Nuevo León state – looks <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/01/margarita-zavala-alcanza-al-bronco-100-firmas-les-falta/">likely to meet the signature threshold by the Feb. 19 deadline</a>. Also well on their way are Margarita Zavala, the wife of former president Felipe Calderón, and Sen. Armando Ríos Piter of Guerrero state.</p>
<p>In the end, who makes it onto the ballot may have less to do with popularity than with Mexico’s incredibly user-unfriendly election smartphone app. </p>
<p><iframe id="9ndqA" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9ndqA/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Instructions not included</h2>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2536386">Mexican law requires</a> presidential candidates without party backing to obtain 866,593 valid signatures from at least 17 of Mexico’s 32 states. The signatures – which must be collected using the government’s new smartphone app – must represent at least 2 percent of registered voters in each of those states. </p>
<p>And since, as one election official observed <a href="http://expansion.mx/politica/2017/09/11/el-ine-abre-ventanilla-para-independientes-cuentan-con-app-para-firmas">before the product’s launch</a>, Mexico has more smartphones than copy machines, digital signatures seems like a clever, time-saving innovation over hard-copy petitions. It also aims to <a href="http://www.milenio.com/elecciones-mexico-2018/lorenzo-cordova-ine-firmas-falsas-denuncia-fepade-170-mil-apoyos-noticias_0_1105089577.html">improve fraud detection</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, since its <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2017/10/26/1197287">launch in October</a>, the clunky election app has been the <a href="http://www.proceso.com.mx/510140/comite-apoyo-a-marichuy-presenta-denuncia-fallas-en-app-del-ine">top complaint of political independents</a>. They have a point: I’m a 34-year-old Mexican political analyst who got her first cellphone in college, but I struggled a bit with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgvlH72rtPQ">the multistep signing process</a>. </p>
<p>Just downloading the app is difficult. First, voters must contact the independent candidate they want to support. That candidate’s campaign then sends the person’s details on to Mexico’s National Electoral Institute, which in turn sends a set of identifying codes back to the voter. </p>
<p>Voters may enter those codes to download the app – assuming, of course, they have a modern smartphone with an up-to-date operating system and enough available memory to temporarily store the personal information that will be sent on to the electoral institute.</p>
<p>Many people don’t make it this far. Despite official online <a href="http://www.ine.mx/candidaturasindependientes/">manuals and tutorials</a>, only about 30 percent of voters registered to support an independent candidate have <a href="http://www.ine.mx/candidaturasindependientes/">actually managed to submit signatures</a>, according to the National Electoral Institute.</p>
<h2>Rural voters left in the dark</h2>
<p>Some candidates who seem unlikely to make the Feb. 19 signature-collection deadline are blaming the app for their <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2017/11/01/independientes-unidos-contra-el-ine-exigen-nuevo-metodo-para-recoleccion-de-firmas_a_23263874/">underwhelming show of popular support</a>. </p>
<p>The indigenous nominee María de Jesús Patricio Martínez, who is currently ranked fourth among independents with 161,000 signatures, for example, <a href="https://chiapas-support.org/2017/10/23/marichuy-denounces-ines-system-for-collecting-signatures-via-cell-phone/">says</a> the digital tool is elitist. Mexico’s election app was “not designed for the poor of this country, but rather for the rich,” she asserted, noting that “many in our communities don’t even know” about smartphone technology. </p>
<p>To set up an account on the app, supporters must have a Facebook or Gmail account. There may be over <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/blogs/historias-de-negoceos/facebook-y-sus-61-millones-de-usuarios-en-mexico.html">60 million Facebook users in Mexico</a>, but my mother-in-law – just to name one independent-minded voter – is not among them. And since she’s not a Gmail user, either, I had to log into my email account on her phone, then walk her step by step through the download and signature process. </p>
<p>Critics say the app <a href="https://www.lajornadamaya.mx/2017-11-08/Acusan-al-INE-de-discriminacion-para-registrar-a--Marichuy-">also disadvantages</a> rural and poorer Mexicans. For example, though it is programmed to capture the front and back of the Mexican ID card, automatically extracting the photo and personal information, a subpar camera phone or low lighting can throw off the whole process. Voters must then manually enter their information. </p>
<p>And since internet coverage and speeds vary dramatically across the country, many people in rural Mexico – who are also likely to have simpler cellphones with less storage – frequently have a <a href="https://www.lajornadamaya.mx/2017-11-08/Acusan-al-INE-de-discriminacion-para-registrar-a--Marichuy-">trickier and much slower signing experience</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wo4whgU4sww?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Presidential aspirant Margarita Zavala mocks ‘how easy’ it is for supporters to sign for an independent candidate.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The rise of independents</h2>
<p>Some snags were probably inevitable in the lead-up to the first federal election to include independents running for national office. Real political competition is relatively new to Mexico, which was ruled by the authoritarian Revolutionary Institutional Party <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/12/world/la-fg-mexico-pri-comeback-20120612">for most of the 20th century</a>.</p>
<p>Early attempts to run for office outside the system were quashed. In 2005, Jorge Castañeda, a former Mexican secretary of foreign affairs, challenged his <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2005/oct/28/world/fg-mexico28">denied independent presidential bid</a> at the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. It <a href="http://www.corteidh.or.cr/docs/casos/articulos/seriec_184_ing.pdf">ruled in his favor</a>, recommending that Mexico guarantee private citizens’ right to be elected to public office. A <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2536386">legal reform in 2014</a> made that possible. </p>
<p>Today, Mexico has three mainstream political parties. But after a quarter century of <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">corruption</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/25/world/americas/mexico-press-government-advertising.html">executive overreach</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">persistent violence</a>, voters <a href="http://consulta.mx/index.php/estudios-e-investigaciones/elecciones-mexico/item/765-identidad-partidista-baja">aren’t particularly happy with any of them</a>. </p>
<p>That popular discontent explains why there are 48 independent presidential bids this year. In 2015, the first year independents could run for office, six came to power as senators, governors, congressmen and mayors. In 2016, they were joined by 10 more mayors and another congressman. </p>
<p>That was all before the app. </p>
<h2>More upgrades, more problems</h2>
<p>After independents began complaining early this campaign season that their supporters were struggling to complete their digital signatures, the National Electoral Institute released an upgraded app. Launched in November, the new version offered improved camera detection, increased security and faster upload speeds. </p>
<p>The government also allowed paper signatures in 283 “high-deprivation municipalities” with limited internet access and granted a one-week extension to <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/ine-dara-una-semana-mas-a-los-independientes-para-recoleccion-de-firmas.html">all candidates running for federal office</a>. </p>
<p>On Jan. 13, yet <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones-2018/da-tepjf-aval-nueva-version-de-app-para-reunir-firmas">another app version was released</a>, this one designed to be supported on a wider array of devices. </p>
<p>Though upgrades may improve signature gathering, they make more work for independent campaigns. Every time a new version comes out, it erases all existing records, so campaign volunteers must hasten to send Mexico’s electoral board all their prior signature batches before the release date. </p>
<p>Mexicans won’t know until Feb. 19 if their preferred independents have made the ballot. If they don’t, my guess is they’ll have an app to blame for that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ana C. de Alba is the founder of Policy Lab Mexico, an international network of consultants and researchers developing innovative policy interventions.</span></em></p>Almost 50 independents want to run for president of Mexico in 2018. But only a handful will likely make the ballot, in part due to the glitchy election app voters must use to show their support.Ana C. de Alba, PhD Candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/591732016-05-11T03:21:14Z2016-05-11T03:21:14ZWhy Shorten wants to kill off spectre of Labor-Greens deal in a hung parliament<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122015/original/image-20160511-29544-7g2hqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Shorten has spent the last two-and-a-half years trying to shed memories of the dysfunction of the Rudd-Gillard years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The election is still nearly two months away, making prediction precarious. However, there are some certainties. And these help explain the thermonuclear war that has broken out between Labor and the Greens over the possibility that the Liberals might <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-10/malcolm-turnbull-bill-shorten-back-away-from-greens-deal/7399930">preference the Greens</a> in some marginal seats.</p>
<p>Such a deal would have serious implications for Labor. And it would present a real opportunity for the Coalition to lock in its chances of securing majority government.</p>
<h2>Numbers and preferences</h2>
<p>The Greens in 2010 seized the inner-city seat of Melbourne from Labor. At this election, the Greens <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-the-eight-seats-richard-di-natale-plans-to-turn-green-by-2026-20160505-gomrrr.html">are targeting</a> Grayndler and Sydney in New South Wales, Batman and Wills in Victoria, and possibly Fremantle in Western Australia, too.</p>
<p>The more seats Labor has to defend the fewer resources it has to the gain the 21 seats it needs for a majority. But this is not the only reason the Coalition would countenance what many of its supporters would regard as a deal with the devil.</p>
<p>The Greens’ only lower house MP, Adam Bandt, has <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/adam-bandt-says-greens-would-be-open-to-laborgreens-coalition-ahead-of-election-20160509-goq96g.html">spoken of the possibility</a> of a Labor-Greens coalition in government. It’s a prediction Labor Leader Bill Shorten dismissed, telling the Greens they were <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-tell-him-hes-dreaming-bill-shorten-rules-out-laborgreens-coalition-20160509-goqdjj.html">“dreaming”</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122033/original/image-20160511-18128-pany0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Julia Gillard’s deal with the Greens helped her form government in 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shorten has spent the last two-and-a-half years trying to shed memories of the dysfunction of the Rudd-Gillard years. Talk of a Labor-Green coalition brings with it images of Julia Gillard and Bob Brown signing the agreement that helped usher in her minority government.</p>
<p>The government needs to push Labor to the left in the minds of voters. Any suggestion of a deal with the Greens helps construct such a trap. It is this collision of political reality and metaphor that is toxic for Labor.</p>
<p>Labor cannot win the 21 seats needed for a majority in the House of Representatives unless it lifts its primary vote above the mid-30s where it has been, at best, in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-gains-slightly-in-post-budget-polls-59050">opinion polls</a> for months.</p>
<p>With a Labor primary vote of 33% – even 38% – there are simply not enough preferences on offer from the Greens, minor parties and independents when it probably needs at least 51% of the two-party-preferred vote to win enough seats to form government on its own.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull cannot afford to see Coalition support keep sliding towards a primary vote of 40%. And, worryingly for the Coalition, Turnbull’s popularity keeps falling despite the benefits of incumbency. As it stands, he would retain office courtesy only of the comfortable majority bestowed on the Coalition at the 2013 election under Tony Abbott’s leadership.</p>
<p>That would not be much of a personal mandate and would make it even harder for Turnbull to fend off the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-liberal-leading-the-liberals-can-turnbull-manage-the-ultra-conservatives-53976">rebellion on his right</a>. This is already constraining his room to move on climate change and a range of social issues, most notably same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>Time is Turnbull’s enemy and Shorten’s friend. An election campaign is the one time in the political cycle when an opposition leader is afforded anything like the same stature as a prime minister. However, Shorten needs an opportunity to break the chains shackling Labor’s vote at Gillard-esque levels.</p>
<h2>The possibility of a hung parliament</h2>
<p>Another hung parliament is a real possibility unless Turnbull or Shorten can fashion a breakout from this stalemate. This would raise the question of whether hung parliaments could be the “new normal”, in an era where fewer voters are rusted onto the major parties, rather than an aberration brought on by Labor’s dysfunction in 2010 and beyond.</p>
<p>Forming minority government could prove harder than <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-09-08/labors-minority-government-explained/2253236">it did in 2010</a>. Independents will be even more wary of committing one way or the other given the vilification of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott for tying themselves to Gillard.</p>
<p>It could again come down to the negotiating skills of the two major party leaders.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122038/original/image-20160511-18157-qjvl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull cannot afford to see Coalition support keep sliding in the opinion polls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm says that while he did not agree with Labor on much, its leaders proved <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oVHiSz5Ko8">much more adept negotiators</a> than members of the Turnbull or Abbott governments. Negotiation is in the DNA of Labor politics. Shorten’s union history, where coming to terms with employers on behalf of unionists is the essential skill, may give him a natural advantage.</p>
<p>By contrast, winner-take-all is the goal of courtroom advocacy and corporate deal-making. This is a characteristic Turnbull does not seem to have left behind in his transition from merchant banker and barrister to political leader.</p>
<p>Politics requires leaders to know when to impose their authority, when to compromise, and just how much to give to the losers when, in the future, you may need their support.</p>
<p>If hung parliaments are the way of the future, then their legacy may well be teaching governments to negotiate with the crossbenchers rather than treating them as temporary irritants.</p>
<p>It may well be an assessment on many voters’ minds as they contemplate how they will vote – as well as crucial for Turnbull and Shorten to consider as they vie to run the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Middleton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Talk of a Labor-Green coalition brings with it images of Julia Gillard and Bob Brown signing the agreement that helped usher in her minority government.Jim Middleton, Vice Chancellor's Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/568752016-03-31T10:25:41Z2016-03-31T10:25:41ZThe waning influence of American political parties<p>Young Americans don’t care much for political parties. According to <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/">the Pew Research Center</a>, 48 percent of millennials (ages 18-33) identify as independents. That’s almost as many as identify as Democrats (28 percent) and Republicans (18 percent) put together.</p>
<p>Political scientists are often <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/independent-voters-partisans-in-the-closet-101931">skeptical</a> about the independent option in surveys. Most individuals who choose to call themselves “independents” still vote consistently with one party or the other. They are partisans except in name. </p>
<p>Even if that’s true, the lack of loyalty or concern for parties still has consequences. For instance, presidential primary campaigns were established to allow a party’s members to choose its candidate. But the research team at Tufts University’s Tisch College, where I study civic engagement, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/74-year-old-bernie-sanderss-amazing-dominance-among-young-voters-in-1-chart/">estimates</a> that young Americans (18-30) have so far cast more votes for Senator Bernie Sanders than for Secretary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump combined. </p>
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<p>Sanders is a party outsider. He ran all his previous campaigns as a socialist, defeating Democrats on the way to statewide office. His career outside the Democratic Party doesn’t faze young Democratic primary voters – and I suspect it even increases his appeal with youth.</p>
<p>Does the fact that young people ignore or dislike parties tell us something about youth and their culture, or is this more about the parties and how they have changed? </p>
<h2>Rejecting the hierarchy</h2>
<p>Today’s young voters have grown up in an age of social media. Millennials both expect and prefer loose networks that allow individuals to personalize their views and form and shift relationships freely. That’s bad news for political parties – hierarchical organizations with officers, rules, official platforms and membership criteria. </p>
<p>Religion offers a parallel case. The pollster Anna Greenberg <a href="http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/OMG.pdf">finds</a> that young Americans are still spiritual – indeed, they continue to believe in many traditional tenets of religion – but they are not drawn to traditional religious institutions. She argues that young people expect to be able to choose exactly the religious content they prefer and to express their individual preferences in much the same way as they choose music and consumer goods. </p>
<p>It is hard for a political party to offer such personalization, because it must promote a platform. In contrast, loosely organized social movements like Black Lives Matter or Spain’s <a href="http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/students/envs_5720/bennett_2012.pdf">Los Indignados</a> (anti-austerity protesters) allow participants to express their personal views and to connect to the peers they most like within the movement. </p>
<p>I acknowledge that this cultural shift is part of the story, but I don’t think it alone explains the decline of parties. For one thing, social media is just as important in Europe as it is in North America, but according to the <a href="http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/">European Social Survey (ESS)</a>, young Europeans’ trust in parties has risen and surpasses that of older Europeans. </p>
<p>Los Indignados began as a decentralized online social movement but has morphed into a political party, Podemos, that holds the third-largest number of seats in the Spanish parliament. I wouldn’t say that European youth love parties, but they support the parties that reflect their views.</p>
<h2>Parties are changing, too</h2>
<p>The theory that young Americans are deserting parties because of shifts in culture and values overlooks the fact that American political parties are changing, and mostly for the worse.</p>
<p>Parties used to raise a lot of money and spend it to employ grassroots workers, recruit volunteers, choose and constrain candidates, generate consistent messages, drive policy agendas, and control patronage jobs. That system involved corruption, which was a good reason to reform it. But after the <a href="http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/fecfeca.shtml#Historical_Background">campaign finance reforms</a> of the 1970s had restricted the parties’ ability to raise and spend money, the Supreme Court <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/03/us/politics/supreme-court-ruling-on-campaign-contributions.html">allowed</a> candidates and outside entities to spend as much as they want. </p>
<p>As a result, the parties now do very little. They are best described as brand names for loosely connected networks of entrepreneurial candidates, donors, and advocacy organizations. Ironically, they have become more like social networks, albeit lubricated by money. The Koch brothers’ political network, <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/koch-brothers-network-gop-david-charles-217124">for instance</a>, employs 3.5 times as many people as the Republican National Committee does.</p>
<p>This means that parties don’t hire, contact, or educate many young people or offer them paths to leadership. Candidates and campaigns affiliated with parties may do those things, but young people still lack any contact with the party itself. </p>
<p>In 2004, political scientist Dan Shea <a href="http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/WorkingPapers/WP13shea.pdf">surveyed</a> local party leaders. “Only a handful” ran any “programs that require[d] a significant amount of time or resources.” He also asked county leaders an open-ended question: “Are there demographic groups of voters that are currently important to the long term success of your local party?” Just eight percent named young voters. </p>
<p>Parties were already weak then. Youth turnout reached its nadir in 1996-2000. Since then, candidates like Obama in 2008 and Sanders in 2016 have engaged a lot of young people. Youth turnout <a href="http://civicyouth.org/quick-facts/youth-voting/">rose</a>, as did the proportion of young Americans who said they had been contacted by candidates. But the parties weren’t doing this outreach. According to the <a href="http://gss.norc.org/">General Social Survey</a>, fewer than one in 10 young adults actively participated in a party in 2004, and that proportion fell to one in 40 by 2014.</p>
<p>We can debate whether it would be desirable, constitutional or even possible to restore the parties’ importance, but as long as they don’t do much for young people, young people will naturally learn to ignore them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Levine has received funding from:
Abt Associates
American Association of University Women
Aspen Institute
Beldon Foundation, JEHT Foundation, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and Solidago Fund
Bill of Rights Institute (BORI)
Bonner Foundation
Bridging Theory to Practice
Carnegie Corporation of New York
Case Foundation
Center for Public Integity (CPI)
Civic Enterprises LLC
Close Up Foundation
Corporation for National and Community Service
Deliberative Democracy Consortium
Democracy Fund
Democracy Fund with Knight Foundation and McCormick Foundation
Engelhard Foundation
Ford Foundation
Ford Foundation
Foundation for Civic Leadership and The Bernard and Audre Rapoport Foundation
Generation Engage
Grosvenor Fund, National Geographic Foundation
Indiana Humanities Council
Jobs for the Future
Kellogg Foundation (via Brandeis University prime)
Kettering Foundation
Knight Foundation
Massachusetts Department of Education
National Conference on Citizenship
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek. New America Foundation
Next Generation Learning Challenge
Omidyar Network
Online News Association
Poynter Institute
S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation
Spencer Foundation
State of Florida through University of South Florida
The Florence and John Schumann Foundation
The McCormick Foundation
The Nonzero Foundation
The Pew Charitable Trusts
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
Tides Foundation
US Department of Education
WT Grant Foundation
He is affiliated with:
Paul J. Aicher Foundation, Director (2009-present)
Discovering Justice (2013-present)
Charles F. Kettering Foundation, Trustee (2004-present; program committee chair 2012-14)
Street Law, Inc., Director and Program Committee Chair (2004-present)</span></em></p>The RNC and DNC are indifferent to young voters – and the young voters are returning the favor.Peter Levine, Associate Dean for Research and Lincoln Filene Professor of Citizenship & Public Affairs, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544612016-02-10T18:43:20Z2016-02-10T18:43:20ZDid independent voters decide the New Hampshire primary?<p>Last week, the diehards had their say in Iowa. Last night in New Hampshire, the independents took their turn. </p>
<p>The Iowa caucuses are time-consuming, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/03/ted-cruz-and-bernie-sanders-had-a-good-caucus-but-primaries-are-another-matter/">only the most committed or ideological partisans show up</a>. </p>
<p>But New Hampshire’s election laws allow people to vote in the primaries even if they are not registered with one of the parties. These voters – the “undeclared” – make up just over 40 percent of potential primary voters in the Granite State. The fact that these undeclared voters could participate in voting has <a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/02/07/independent-voters-are-important-in-new-hampshire-primary-origwx-al.cnn">led some to suggest</a> that the New Hampshire primary lay in the hands of independent voters.</p>
<p>But were these voters pivotal? Research that <a href="http://www.samaraklar.com">Samara Klar</a> and I did for our new book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Independent-Politics-American-Political-Inaction/dp/1316500632/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455078365&sr=8-1&keywords=krupnikov">Independent Politics</a>,</em> indicates the answer to this question is more complicated than simple exit poll numbers suggest.</p>
<h2>A good-sized minority</h2>
<p>According to CNN’s exit polls, of those who voted in the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Rep">Republican primary</a>, 60 percent were registered Republicans and 35 percent were undeclared voters. </p>
<p>Among those who voted in the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Dem">Democratic primary</a>, 41 percent were undeclared, while 54 percent were registered Democrats. </p>
<p>In both parties, exit polls had no information about the registration status of about five to six percent of the primary voters – which explains why these numbers don’t total 100 percent.</p>
<p>Exit polls ask respondents to describe their registration status – Republican, Democrat or undeclared. But they also ask people how they describe their own political leanings. A person, for example, may be an undeclared voter but freely report that he or she is a Democrat or Republican. </p>
<p>When we look at exit poll questions that allowed people to describe their own political leaning, about 40 percent of the voters in both primaries identified as “independent.” </p>
<p>On the Republican side, the independents and the party enrolled both favored the same candidate, Donald Trump, by about 35 percent. In other words, exit polls suggest that independent voters didn’t change who won the Republican race. </p>
<p>What’s more, we see few divides between independents and Republicans as we go down the list of GOP candidates. John Kasich, for example, takes second place at similar rates among voters who consider themselves Republican and those who consider themselves independent.</p>
<p>Independents do appear much more pivotal in the Democratic primary. </p>
<p>Although Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the self-identified Democrats’ vote nearly evenly (48 percent to 52 percent), Sanders took 72 percent of the independents.</p>
<h2>Motivation is key</h2>
<p>It’s important to understand that a person’s choice to be an “undeclared” voter does not mean that he or she has no particular preference for a party. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Independent-Voter-Bruce-Keith/dp/0520077202/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455078542&sr=8-1&keywords=myth+of+the+independent">Political scientists</a> have demonstrated that people who are independent or “undeclared” often clearly like one party better than the other. For some, this classification may reflect the fact that their political positions do not fit neatly with either party. For others, the label may simply be a way of hiding their ideological connection to a party. </p>
<p>Our research shows that people’s desire to hide their partisan connection stems from dissatisfaction with the two political parties. Media coverage that highlights partisan bickering and polarization, we argue, leads people to believe that there is nothing positive about the party establishment. If that is the case, it should not be surprising that the large number of independents voting in the New Hampshire primaries threw their support behind candidates with no experience in either party machine.</p>
<p>The New Hampshire exit polls suggest that the independence of the primary voters is – at least in part – a mirage. Among those who voted in the Republican primary, 71 percent identify as conservatives and 27 percent report they are moderate. Of those voting in the Democratic primary, 69 percent reported they were liberal and 27 percent report that they were moderate. These patterns suggest a notable connection between party and ideology that has remained undiluted by the presence of independent or undeclared voters. </p>
<p>Indeed, the majority of New Hampshire voters who believe that the next president should come from “outside the establishment” supported Trump and Sanders. Among Republican voters who wanted an “outside the establishment” candidate, 61 percent supported Trump. Meanwhile, 86 percent of those on the Democratic side who wanted an “outside the establishment” candidate supported Sanders. Notably, however, only 27 percent of those voting in the Democratic primary reported this sentiment, while 50 percent of Republicans did. </p>
<p>As Klar and I <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/01/26/trump-and-sanders-allow-partisans-to-stick-with-their-parties-while-also-rejecting-them/">have argued</a>, the same forces that lead people to avoid associating with parties would also lead them to candidates like Trump and Sanders. </p>
<h2>A weakening force</h2>
<p>As interesting as independents are in New Hampshire, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions about the remaining primaries from this first one. Due in part to its unusual primary structure, New Hampshire may draw more independent voters than primaries in other states. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, New Hampshire hints at an emerging relationship between the independent voter and the nonestablishment candidate. It is only reasonable that voters who avoid publicly identifying with established parties would be drawn to candidates who seem to care little about what their party wants or thinks. </p>
<p>Only time will tell if this connection between independents and the establishment will change the party system. Decades of political science research show that when it comes to the general election, most independents fall into party lines and vote for whichever candidate the party they prefer has <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Independent-Voter-Bruce-Keith/dp/0520077202/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455128849&sr=8-1&keywords=myth+of+the+independent+voter">nominated</a>. </p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/01/26/the-easy-test-for-the-party-decides-suddenly-doesnt-look-so-easy/">political science research</a> could not have predicted that nonestablishment candidates like Trump and Sanders would win primaries. So perhaps the lesson of independents in New Hampshire is that the parties in 2016 are heading toward uncharted territory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54461/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yanna Krupnikov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>NH’s election laws allow people to vote in the primaries even if they are not registered with one of the parties. How pivotal are these unenrolled voters? We look beyond the exit polls for answers.Yanna Krupnikov, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Stony Brook University (The State University of New York)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.