tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/information-2828/articlesInformation – The Conversation2023-11-20T18:59:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175392023-11-20T18:59:52Z2023-11-20T18:59:52ZDisinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back<p>Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not by accident but as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2875">part of organised political campaigns</a>, in which case we refer to it as disinformation. </p>
<p>But there is a more fundamental, subversive damage arising from misinformation and disinformation that is discussed less often.</p>
<p>It undermines democracy itself. In a recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352250X23001562">paper published in Current Opinion in Psychology</a>, we highlight two important aspects of democracy that disinformation works to erode.</p>
<h2>The integrity of elections</h2>
<p>The first of the two aspects is confidence in how power is distributed – the integrity of elections in particular.</p>
<p>In the United States, recent polls have shown nearly 70% of Republicans <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html">question the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election</a>. This is a direct result of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/donald-trump-and-the-lie/A438DF5A45FE78CB2BC887859EFAB587">disinformation from Donald Trump</a>, the loser of that election. </p>
<p>Democracy depends on the people knowing that power will be transferred peacefully <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3273111">if an incumbent loses an election</a>. The “big lie” that the 2020 US election was stolen undermines that confidence.</p>
<h2>Depending on reliable information</h2>
<p>The second important aspect of democracy is this – it depends on reliable information about the evidence for various policy options.</p>
<p>One reason we trust democracy as a system of governance is the idea that it can deliver “better” decisions and outcomes than autocracy, because the “wisdom of crowds” <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tops.12610">outperforms any one individual</a>. But the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08913811.2018.1575007">benefits of this wisdom vanish</a> if people are pervasively disinformed. </p>
<p>Disinformation about climate change is a well-documented example. The fossil fuel industry understood the environmental consequences of burning fossil fuels <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0349-9">at least as early as the 1960s</a>. Yet they spent decades funding organisations that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2875">denied the reality of climate change</a>. This disinformation campaign has delayed climate mitigation by several decades – a case of public policy being thwarted by false information.</p>
<p>We’ve seen a similar misinformation trajectory in the COVID-19 pandemic, although it happened in just a few years rather than decades. Misinformation about COVID varied from claims that 5G towers rather than a virus <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1329878X20946113">caused the disease</a>, to casting doubt on the <a href="https://www.cmaj.ca/content/195/15/E552">effectiveness of lockdowns</a> or the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01644-3">safety of vaccines</a>.</p>
<p>The viral surge of misinformation led to the World Health Organisation introducing a new term – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067362030461X">infodemic</a> – to describe the abundance of low-quality information and conspiracy theories.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-almost-like-grooming-how-anti-vaxxers-conspiracy-theorists-and-the-far-right-came-together-over-covid-168383">'It's almost like grooming': how anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, and the far-right came together over COVID</a>
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<h2>A common denominator of misinformation</h2>
<p>Strikingly, some of the same political operatives involved in denying climate change have also used their rhetorical playbook <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/organisers-of-anti-lockdown-declaration-have-track-record-of-promoting-denial-of-health-and-environmental-risks/">to promote COVID disinformation</a>. What do these two issues have in common?</p>
<p>One common denominator is suspicion of government solutions to societal problems. Whether it’s setting a price on carbon to mitigate climate change, or social distancing to slow the spread of COVID, contrarians fear the policies they consider to be <a href="http://refhub.elsevier.com/S2352-250X(23)00156-2/sref46">an attack on personal liberties</a>.</p>
<p>An ecosystem of conservative and free-market think tanks exists to deny any science that, if acted on, has the potential to infringe on “liberty” through regulations.</p>
<p>There is another common attribute that ties together all organised disinformation campaigns – whether about elections, climate change or vaccines. It’s the use of personal attacks to compromise people’s integrity and credibility.</p>
<p>Election workers in the US <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/30/politics/rudy-giuliani-georgia-election-workers/index.html">were falsely accused</a> of committing fraud by those who fraudulently claimed the election had been “stolen” from Trump.</p>
<p>Climate scientists have been subject to <a href="https://jspp.psychopen.eu/index.php/jspp/article/view/4965">harassment campaigns</a>, ranging from hate mail to vexatious complaints and freedom-of-information requests. Public health officials such as Anthony Fauci have been <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s42738-021-00073-2">prominent targets of far-right attacks</a>.</p>
<h2>The new frontier in attacks on scientists</h2>
<p>It is perhaps unsurprising there is now a new frontier in the attacks on scientists and others who seek to uphold the evidence-based integrity of democracy. It involves attacks and allegations of bias against misinformation researchers. </p>
<p>Such attacks are largely <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/30/jim-jordans-conspiratorial-quest-for-power">driven by Republican politicians</a>, in particular those who have endorsed Trump’s baseless claims about the 2020 election.</p>
<p>The misinformers are seeking to neutralise research focused on their own conduct by borrowing from the climate denial and anti-vaccination playbook. Their campaign has had a chilling effect <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/25/gop-legal-attacks-create-chilling-effect-misinformation-research/">on research into misinformation</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/inoculate-yourself-against-election-misinformation-campaigns-3-essential-reads-193582">Inoculate yourself against election misinformation campaigns – 3 essential reads</a>
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<h2>How do we move on from here?</h2>
<p>Psychological research has contributed to <a href="https://econtent.hogrefe.com/doi/10.1027/1016-9040/a000493">legislative efforts by the European Union</a>, such as the Digital Services Act or Code of Practice, which seek to make democracies more resilient against misinformation and disinformation. </p>
<p>Research has also investigated how to boost the public’s resistance to misinformation. One such method is <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo6254">inoculation</a>, which rests on the idea people can be protected against being misled if they learn about the rhetorical techniques used to mislead them. </p>
<p>In a recent inoculation campaign involving brief educational videos shown to 38 million citizens in Eastern Europe, <a href="https://safety.google/intl/en_uk/stories/defanging-disinformation-in-CEE/">people’s ability to recognise misleading rhetoric</a> about Ukrainian refugees was frequently improved.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether these initiatives and research findings will be put to use in places like the US, where one side of politics appears more threatened by research into misinformation than by the risks to democracy arising from misinformation itself.</p>
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<p><em>We’d like to acknowledge our colleagues Ullrich Ecker, Naomi Oreskes, Jon Roozenbeek and Sander van der Linden who coauthored the journal article on which this article is based.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky receives financial support from the European Research Council, the Humboldt Foundation, the Volkswagen Foundation and the European Commission. He also receives funding from Jigsaw (a technology incubator created by Google) and from UK Research and Innovation. He also interacts frequently with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre in an advisory capacity and through scientific collaborations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When people are pervasively disinformed, the very foundations of democracy can end up on shaky ground.Stephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolJohn Cook, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156362023-10-24T15:15:13Z2023-10-24T15:15:13ZPhysics has long failed to explain life – but we’re testing a groundbreaking new theory in the lab<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555341/original/file-20231023-23-dbncio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1670%2C53%2C4113%2C3934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-panda-her-baby-snuggling-eating-1839520114">Daniel X D/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Modern physics can explain everything from the spin of the tiniest particle to the behaviour of entire galaxy clusters. But it <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-mysteries-of-physics-5-will-we-ever-have-a-fundamental-theory-of-life-and-consciousness-203127">can’t explain life</a>. There’s simply no formula to explain the difference between a living lump of matter and a dead one. Life seems to just mysteriously “emerge” from non-living parts, such as elementary particles. </p>
<p>Assembly theory is a bold new approach to explaining life on a fundamental scale, with its framework <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06600-9">recently published in Nature</a>. It assumes that complexity and information (such as DNA) are at the heart of it. The theory provides a a way to understand how these concepts emerge in chemical systems. </p>
<p>Emergence is a word physicists use to explain something that is bigger than the sum of its parts – such as how water can feel wet when individual water molecules don’t. Wetness is an emergent property.</p>
<p>While the mathematics is elegant, the theory can ultimately only be reliable if it is tested in the lab. Carefully designed experiments, such as the one my colleagues and I are carrying out right now, will be essential to ground the abstractions of assembly theory in chemical reality.</p>
<p>At the core of assembly theory is the idea that objects can be defined not as immutable entities, but by the history of how they formed. This shifts focus to the processes by which complex configurations are constructed from simpler building blocks. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Building blocks can be assembled much like lego to create molecules of life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Image credit Dr Anna Tanczos, Sci - Comm Studios.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The theory proposes an “assembly index” which <a href="https://theconversation.com/life-modern-physics-cant-explain-it-but-our-new-theory-which-says-time-is-fundamental-might-203129">quantifies the minimal steps</a>, or shortest path, required to build an object. This measure tracks the degree of “selection” necessary to yield an ensemble of objects – referring to the memory, such as DNA, required to create living things.</p>
<p>Living things, after all, don’t just occur spontaneously, such as helium in stars. They require DNA as a blueprint for creating new versions.</p>
<h2>Predictions of novelty</h2>
<p>But how might these theoretical constructs actually be probed experimentally?
One key aspect of assembly theory has <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23258-x">already been tested in our lab</a>. That is the determination of the assembly index using mass spectrometry (an analytical tool which can measure the mass-to-charge ratio in molecules). </p>
<p>By fragmenting molecules and analysing their mass spectra, we can estimate their assembly index. We can literally see how many steps it takes for various fragments to piece together to form a given molecule. Assembly index can also be measured using other techniques called infrared spectroscopy and NMR spectroscopy for various types of molecules.</p>
<p>We’ve determined the assembly index on a range of molecules, both in the lab and computationally. Our work shows that molecules associated with life, such as hormones and metabolites (products of metabolic reactions), are indeed more complex and require more information to assemble than molecules that are not uniquely associated with life, such as carbon dioxide. In fact, we’ve shown that an assembly index above 15 steps <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23258-x">is only found</a> in molecules associated with life – just as the theory suggests.</p>
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<p>The theory also offers testable insights into the origin of life. That’s because it says there’s a point at which molecules become so complex that they start using information to make copies of themselves – suddenly requiring memory and information – a sort of threshold at which life arises from non-life. </p>
<p>Ultimately, it is possible to have selection and minimal memory in non-biological systems (such as how our Sun formed the planets by pulling together a ton of mass). But you can’t get living organisms or the technology they create – be that lego or rocket science – without high levels of memory and selection.</p>
<h2>Chemical soup</h2>
<p>We are planning to investigate this origin of life more closely by creating a type of chemical soup in our lab. In this soup, brand new molecules could be created over time, either by adding various reactants or by chance, while we monitor their assembly index and growth of the system. By tuning reaction rates and conditions, we could study that fascinating transition point from non-life to life – and learn whether it follows the predictions made by assembly theory.</p>
<p>We are also designing “chemical soup generators”, which mix together simple chemicals to find complex ones. These may boost our understanding of how complexity can be built using assembly theory and how selection outside of biology can be initiated. </p>
<p>This could uncover something about how life first evolved, starting with minimal selection and then requiring more and more. Under identical conditions, are objects constructed in predictable ways? Or does randomness enter the fray at some point? This would help us understand whether the emergence of life is deterministic and predictable, or more chaotic. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=212%2C53%2C7726%2C4095&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Life is special.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/elephant-herd-giraffes-walking-towards-trees-2198008341">jinnawat tawong/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>This means assembly theory could apply much more broadly. Beyond molecules, the framework could inspire studies on other systems that rely on combinations, such as material aggregates, polymers or artificial chemistry. This may lead to new scientific insights or technological inventions. It may reveal subtle patterns whereby molecules above a threshold assembly index disproportionately possess certain properties. </p>
<p>We could also use the theory for detailed studies of evolution itself. Research could explore how fragments of cells exist in the process of forming an overall cell, arising from smaller molecules combining to form amino acids and nucleotides. Tracking the emergence of metabolic and genetic networks in this way may offer clues into transitions in evolutionary history. </p>
<p>Experimental tests pose challenges, however. Tracking how objects are assembled demands precise experimental monitoring. </p>
<p>But it might be well worth it. Assembly theory promises a radically new understanding of matter – potentially uncovering universal principles of hierarchical construction that transcend biology.</p>
<p>Complex configurations of matter may not be immutable objects, but waypoints in an open-ended process of construction propagating through time. The universe may obey certain physical laws, but it is ultimately creative.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Cronin receives funding from the EPSRC, Templeton Foundation, DARPA, ERC, industry.</span></em></p>Life seems to just mysteriously ‘emerge’ from non-living parts, such as elementary particles.Lee Cronin, Regius Chair of Chemistry, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2044322023-04-26T16:18:48Z2023-04-26T16:18:48ZAI can process more information than humans – so will it stop us repeating our mistakes?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523018/original/file-20230426-14-r4jkzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C13%2C968%2C741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Napoleon could have learned from the past.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_invasion_of_Russia#/media/File:Napoleons_retreat_from_moscow.jpg">painting by Adolph Northen/wikipedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is a cliche that not knowing history makes one repeat it. As many people have also pointed out, the only thing we learn from history is that we rarely learn anything from history. People engage in <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/dont-forget-land-wars-in-asia/">land wars in Asia</a> over and over. They repeat the same dating mistakes, again and again. But why does this happen? And will technology put an end to it?</p>
<p>One issue is forgetfulness and “<a href="https://lab.cccb.org/en/cognitive-short-sightedness-biases-and-survival/">myopia</a>”: we do not see how past events are relevant to current ones, overlooking the unfolding pattern. Napoleon ought to have noticed the similarities between his march on Moscow and the Swedish king <a href="https://www.historytoday.com/archive/history-matters/madman-north">Charles XII’s failed attempt to do likewise</a> roughly a century before him.</p>
<p>We are also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-brain-stops-us-learning-from-our-mistakes-and-what-to-do-about-it-203436">bad at learning</a> when things go wrong. Instead of determining why a decision was wrong and how to avoid it ever happening again, we often try to ignore the embarrassing turn of events. That means that the next time a similar situation comes around, we do not see the similarity – and repeat the mistake. </p>
<p>Both reveal problems with information. In the first case, we fail to remember personal or historical information. In the second, we fail to encode information when it is available.</p>
<p>That said, we also make mistakes when we cannot efficiently deduce what is going to happen. Perhaps the situation is too complex or too time-consuming to think about. Or we are biased to misinterpret what is going on. </p>
<h2>The annoying power of technology</h2>
<p>But surely technology can help us? We can now store information outside of our brains, and use computers to retrieve it. That ought to make learning and remembering easy, right?</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522168/original/file-20230420-28-pu1618.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><br><em>This article is run in partnership with <a href="https://howthelightgetsin.org/festivals/hay?utm_source=Media+Partner&utm_medium=Article+preview&utm_campaign=Hay+2023&utm_id=Conversation">HowTheLightGetsIn</a>, the world’s largest philosophy and music festival, Hay-on-Wye 26-29 May. Pragya Agarwal and Anders Sandberg will be talking to editors Miriam Frankel and Matt Warren about how our understanding of cognitive biases can help us correct some of our mistakes. Tickets <a href="https://howthelightgetsin.org/festivals/hay/festival-passes?utm_source=Media+Partner&utm_medium=Article+preview&utm_campaign=Hay+2023&utm_id=Conversation">here</a>: 20% off with code CONVERSATION23</em></p>
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<p>Storing information is useful when it can be retrieved well. But remembering is not the same thing as retrieving a file from a known location or date. Remembering involves spotting similarities and bringing things to mind. </p>
<p>An artificial intelligence (AI) also needs to be able to spontaneously bring similarities to our mind – often unwelcome similarities. But if it is good at noticing possible similarities (after all, it could search all of the internet and all our personal data) it will also often notice false ones. </p>
<p>For failed dates, it may note that they all involved dinner. But it was never the dining that was the problem. And it was a sheer coincidence that there were tulips on the table – no reason to avoid them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man talking on his phone sat next to a woman holding a glass of wine looking annoyed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523021/original/file-20230426-26-l9bvcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We often repeat dating mistakes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bad-date-concept-exasperated-afro-woman-1622014507">Prostock-studio/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That means it will warn us about things we do not care about, possibly in an annoying way. Tuning its sensitivity down means increasing the risk of not getting a warning when it is needed. </p>
<p>This is a fundamental problem and applies just as much to any advisor: the cautious advisor will cry wolf too often, the optimistic advisor will miss risks. </p>
<p>A good advisor is somebody we trust. They have about the same level of caution as we do, and we know they know what we want. This is difficult to find in a human advisor, and even more so in an AI. </p>
<p>Where does technology stop mistakes? Idiot-proofing works. Cutting machines require you to hold down buttons, keeping your hands away from the blades. A “dead man’s switch” stops a machine if the operator becomes incapacitated. </p>
<p>Microwave ovens turn off the radiation when the door is opened. To launch missiles, two people need to turn keys simultaneously across a room. Here, careful design renders mistakes hard to make. But we don’t care enough about less important situations, making the design there far less idiot-proof. </p>
<p>When technology works well, we often trust it too much. Airline pilots have fewer true flying hours today than in the past due to the amazing efficiency of autopilot systems. This is bad news when the autopilot fails, and the pilot has less experience to go on to rectify the situation. </p>
<p>The first of a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20101204033702/http://home.versatel.nl/the_sims/rig/sleipnera.htm">new breed of oil platform (Sleipnir A) sank</a> because engineers trusted the software calculation of the forces acting on it. The model was wrong, but it presented the results in such a compelling way that they looked reliable.</p>
<p>Much of our technology is amazingly reliable. For example, we do not notice how lost packets of data on the internet are constantly being found behind the scenes, how error-correcting codes remove noise or how fuses and redundancy make appliances safe. </p>
<p>But when we pile on level after level of complexity, it looks very unreliable. We do notice when the Zoom video lags, the AI program answers wrong or the computer crashes. Yet ask anybody who used a computer or car 50 years ago how they actually worked, and you will note that they were both less capable and less reliable.</p>
<p>We make technology more complex until it becomes too annoying or unsafe to use. As the parts become better and more reliable, we often choose to add new exciting and useful features rather than sticking with what works. This ultimately makes the technology less reliable than it could be.</p>
<h2>Mistakes will be made</h2>
<p>This is also why AI is a double-edged sword for avoiding mistakes. Automation often makes things safer and more efficient when it works, but when it fails it makes the trouble far bigger. Autonomy means that smart software can complement our thinking and offload us, but when it is not thinking like we want it to, it can misbehave. </p>
<p>The more complex it is, the more fantastic the mistakes can be. Anybody who has dealt with highly intelligent scholars know how well they can mess things up with great ingenuity when their common sense fails them – and AI has very little human common sense. </p>
<p>This is also a profound reason to worry about AI guiding decision-making: <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-failures">they make new kinds of mistakes</a>. We humans know human mistakes, meaning we can watch out for them. But <a href="https://news.artnet.com/art-world/chatgpt-art-theory-hal-foster-2263711">smart machines can make mistakes we could never imagine</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, AI systems are programmed and trained by humans. And there are lots of examples of such systems <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/aug/08/rise-of-the-racist-robots-how-ai-is-learning-all-our-worst-impulses">becoming biased and even bigoted</a>. They mimic the biases and repeat the mistakes from the human world, even when the people involved explicitly try to avoid them.</p>
<p>In the end, mistakes will keep on happening. There are fundamental reasons why we are wrong about the world, why we do not remember everything we ought to, and why our technology cannot perfectly help us avoid trouble. </p>
<p>But we can work to reduce the consequences of mistakes. The undo button and autosave have saved countless documents on our computers. <a href="https://www.themonument.info/">The Monument in London</a>, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/century-old-warnings-against-tsunamis-dot-japans-coastline-180956448/">tsunami stones</a> in Japan and other monuments act to remind us about certain risks. Good design practices make our lives safer. </p>
<p>Ultimately, it is possible to learn something from history. Our aim should be to survive and learn from our mistakes, not prevent them from ever happening. Technology can help us with this, but we need to think carefully about what we actually want from it – and design accordingly.</p>
<p><em>HowTheLightGetsIn follows the theme of Error and Renaissance, identifying fundamental errors that we have made in our theories, our organisation of society and in world affairs – and explores new forms of thought and action. More information <a href="https://howthelightgetsin.org/festivals/hay?utm_source=Media+Partner&utm_medium=Article+preview&utm_campaign=Hay+2023&utm_id=Conversation">here</a>. Come and see Conversation editors Miriam Frankel and Matt Warren with special guests Pragya Agarwal, professor of social inequities, Loughborough University, and Anders Sandberg, from the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, talk about how we can overcome cognitive bias to think about the world differently. Hay-on-Wye 26-29 May. 20% discount <a href="https://howthelightgetsin.org/festivals/hay/festival-passes?utm_source=Media+Partner&utm_medium=Article+preview&utm_campaign=Hay+2023&utm_id=Conversation">on tickets</a> using the code CONVERSATION23.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204432/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anders Sandberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can now store information outside of our brains, and use computers to retrieve it. That ought to make learning and remembering easy, right?Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute & Oxford Martin School, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2028182023-03-30T15:22:15Z2023-03-30T15:22:15ZToo many digital distractions are eroding our ability to read deeply, and here’s how we can become aware of what’s happening — podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518297/original/file-20230329-24-kr4oj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C51%2C3840%2C2103&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Constant distractions affect our ability to concentrate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Staying focused on a single task for a long period of time is a growing concern. We are confronted with and have to process incredible amounts of information daily, and our brains are often functioning in overdrive to manage the processing and decision-making required. </p>
<p>In an era of ceaseless notifications from apps, devices and social media platforms, as well as access to more information than we could possibly consider, how do we find ways to manage? And is the way we think, focus and process information changing as a result?</p>
<p>In this episode of The Conversation Weekly, we speak with three researchers who study human-computer interaction, technology design and literacy about how all of these demands on our attention are affecting us, and what we can do about it.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/6425436b8168410011e26a64" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Enhancing learning</h2>
<p>Maryanne Wolf is the director of the Center for Dyslexia, Diverse Learners and Social Justice at the University of California in the United States. Her book, <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/proust-and-the-squid-maryanne-wolf"><em>Proust and the Squid</em></a>, presents a history of how the reading brain developed. Since its publication in 2008, Wolf has published extensively on literacy and reading research.</p>
<p>Wolf believes that reading is important because it contributes to a person’s potential and enhances the ability to learn, think and be discerning: </p>
<p>“I’ve become, in essence, obsessed with the deep reading processes that expand the reading brain of the child to achieve their academic potential. But that foundation expands over time with everything we read and learn, so that we begin to be human beings who have the ability to take their background knowledge, use with logical thinking to infer what is the truth — or the lack of truth — in what they are reading.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a child lying on the floor reads from a book" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518306/original/file-20230329-26-ysz14o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reading can help children develop empathy and logical thinking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shu</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wolf is concerned that the amount of interaction we have with our screens and devices — and the speed at which we necessarily have to function — has changed us by removing from us the ability to be present.</p>
<p>“We have all changed. We don’t even realize it, but there’s a patience that’s needed inside ourselves to give attention to inference, empathy, critical analysis. It takes effort. And we’re so accustomed to going so fast that the immersiveness is difficult.”</p>
<h2>Capturing attention</h2>
<p>Kai Lukoff is an assistant professor at Santa Clara University in the U.S., where he directs the Human-Computer Interaction Lab. He researches how apps, platform and technology designers attempt to capture a user’s attention.</p>
<p>“There are a thousand or more engineers, developers, designers on the other side of the screen who are purposefully or intentionally designing these services in order to capture your attention, to get you to spend more time on the site, to get you to click on more ads. And it can be difficult to resist or even understand what’s happening to you when you feel tempted or lost. But of course, that’s not by accident.”</p>
<p>And so as a response, we learn how to quickly sift through content. In other words, we skim as an adaptive strategy. Skimming undermines the kind of attention Wolf notes is required to reap the intellectual, mental and cognitive benefits of deeper reading.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a man holds two smartphones in his hand while sitting in front of a laptop showing charts on its screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518296/original/file-20230329-14-qr1qnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There’s a cognitive cost to media multi-tasking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cognitive cost</h2>
<p>Daniel Le Roux, a senior lecturer at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, is a computer scientist who investigates the psychology of human-computer interaction. He looks at the effects of what we’re doing when we’re “media multitasking,” how we navigate multiple platforms, events and processes — both online and offline — at the same time.</p>
<p>“Everybody’s doing it, and it’s, in a large way, a natural adaptation to the technological environment that that has been created around us.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/your-phone-and-your-brain-what-we-know-so-far-161116">Your phone and your brain - what we know so far</a>
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<hr>
<p>Media multi-tasking, like skimming, is an adaptive response to an environment inundated with information. And media multi-tasking comes at a cognitive cost, Le Roux points out.</p>
<p>“We incur what we might call a switch cost; that means our performance in our focal task is going to suffer. If you think of driving as the focal task, the reason we prohibit drivers from using their smartphones while they’re driving is it because it distracts them from the task of driving.”</p>
<hr>
<p>This episode was hosted by Nehal El-Hadi and written by Mend Mariwany. The executive producer is Mend Mariwany. Eloise Stevens does our sound design, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.</p>
<p>You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>. A transcript of this episode will be available soon.</p>
<p>Listen to “The Conversation Weekly” via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kai Lukoff's doctoral research was funded in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation and a Google Faculty Research Award.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel B. le Roux and Maryanne Wolf do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the proliferation of social media platforms, smart devices and apps, the demands on our attention have never been greater. But how is this affecting our ability to process and retain information?Nehal El-Hadi, Science + Technology Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationDaniel Merino, Associate Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973822023-02-13T13:23:45Z2023-02-13T13:23:45ZA new strategy for western states to adapt to long-term drought: Customized water pricing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509212/original/file-20230209-28-cecwzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4486%2C2984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prompts like this sign in Coalinga, California, may get people to use less water – but paying them could be more effective. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-informs-residents-to-conserve-water-on-saturday-august-news-photo/1243860618">Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even after <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/22/1150197343/why-heavy-winter-rain-and-snow-wont-be-enough-to-pull-the-west-out-of-a-megadrou">heavy snow and rainfall in January</a>, western states still face an ongoing drought risk that is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006323117">likely to grow worse</a> thanks to climate change. A whopping snowpack is good news, but it doesn’t reduce the need for long-term planning.</p>
<p>Confronted with a shrinking supply of water for agriculture, industry and residential uses, water agencies have pursued different strategies to encourage water conservation. They have <a href="https://environment-review.yale.edu/water-conservation-gentle-nudge-can-go-long-way-0">nudged customers</a> to reduce water use, <a href="https://www.ladwpnews.com/phase-3-water-restrictions-frequently-asked-questions/">limited outdoor watering</a> and offered incentives to <a href="https://www.ladwpnews.com/rebate-increase-gives-ladwp-customers-5-per-square-foot-to-replace-lawns-with-sustainable-landscaping/">rip out lawns</a>. On the supply side, there are innovative ideas about <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-california-could-save-up-its-rain-to-ease-future-droughts-instead-of-watching-epic-atmospheric-river-rainfall-drain-into-the-pacific-197168">using heavy rains to recharge groundwater</a>.</p>
<p>Basic economics teaches us that a higher price for water would encourage conservation. Up until now, however, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-10-24/millions-of-californians-are-struggling-to-pay-for-water">concerns about harming low-income households</a> have limited discussions about raising water prices to reduce demand. </p>
<p>We know that it’s hard to pay more for essential goods such as food, energy and water, especially for lower-income households. Rather than raising everyone’s water prices, we propose a customized approach that lets individual consumers decide whether to pay higher prices. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cp1ST9MxDcY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In August 2022, the federal government declared an unprecedented drought emergency on the Colorado River and ordered Arizona, Nevada and Mexico to sharply reduce their water usage.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who is most able and willing to conserve?</h2>
<p>One of the most common challenges involved in making markets work well is what economists call <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asymmetricinformation.asp">asymmetric information</a> – when one party has more access to relevant information than the other party. Think about buying or selling a car before online tools like <a href="https://www.carfax.com/value/">Carfax</a> were available. Owners and dealers knew more about what each car was really worth, so they had greater bargaining power than buyers. </p>
<p>The West has millions of water users with a broad range of incomes who consume water at widely varying levels. These consumers, including urban households, businesses and farmers, know more than water agencies do about how readily they can conserve water. </p>
<p>For example, a person who owns a home with a large green lawn and who is conservation-minded may need only a small incentive to switch to <a href="https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/environment/2022/03/21/socal-water-districts-urge-water-conservation">native, low-water plants</a>. Some farmers may need only a small incentive to replace <a href="https://www.uidaho.edu/-/media/UIdaho-Responsive/Files/cals/centers/Kimberly/forage/Alfalfa-Irrigation-Facts-2013.pdf">water-intensive alfalfa production</a> with a less water-intensive crop.</p>
<p>Water agencies could elicit this private information by making a “take it or leave it” offer to water consumers. Some of California’s electric utilities have already <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w23553">experimented with this opt-in approach</a> to encourage energy conservation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large house with a pool, bordered by brown dirt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509214/original/file-20230209-166-3o38ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Water officials in the Las Vegas area want to cap the size of new swimming pools like this one at a home abutting desert land in Henderson, Nev.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ColoradoRiverUsersWesternDrought/752a24416a174bcd8bb8fcbaed0a2b9b/photo">AP Photo/John Locher</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Target the big users</h2>
<p>Every western water district has access to customer-level big data on monthly and even daily water consumption. Agencies could use this information to identify the top 10% of water consumers in their territories, based on volume used – like the household in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles that used <a href="https://la.curbed.com/2015/10/1/9915330/california-biggest-water-user">11.8 million gallons of water</a> in 2014.</p>
<p>Water agencies could randomly select customers among the largest water users in their service areas to participate in a small pilot study. Each invitee would receive an opt-in contract offering to pay them an annual fee for enrolling for three years in a water conservation program. In return, the price the consumer paid for each gallon of water would triple. This approach would give the consumer a guaranteed payment for participating and a clear incentive to use less water.</p>
<p>Data scientists would collect information on who accepted the offer and could survey invitees to learn how they decided whether or not to participate. Combining these two data sets would make it possible to test hypotheses about which factors determined willingness to accept the opt-in offer. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1623035161368530965"}"></div></p>
<p>Using customer-level water consumption data over time, water agencies could track usage and compare customers who participated in the price increase program with others who turned down the offer. This would make it possible to estimate the water conservation benefits of introducing customized water prices.</p>
<p>There are many different ways in which water users could cut back, including swapping out <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.0741-6261.2008.00026.x?casa_token=SVO72Cz4sloAAAAA%3AlmARK8MIBvgi-S_fk4Vx9JuRPiH0IunV7iQ82_H4x7WI3OZBpOXZbyyqL1Ma69IioXgcVA4cGTF1ef5C3w">old appliances</a> or watering their gardens less often. Farmers could <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-water-strategy-for-the-parched-west-have-cities-pay-farmers-to-install-more-efficient-irrigation-systems-185820">install more efficient irrigation systems</a>. Customers who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2020.100169">chose the payment in return for higher prices</a> would decide which conservation strategies worked best for them. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Children use an open-air shower at a public beach." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509217/original/file-20230209-18-5griet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2015, California temporarily shut off showers at state beaches to conserve water, a strategy that mainly affected less affluent households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ryanh-morales-from-left-and-his-brother-dereck-use-the-news-photo/480116758">Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Big potential insights</h2>
<p>Conducting a pilot study using a randomly chosen sample of high-usage customers is a low-stakes strategy. If it fails to promote water conservation at a low cost, then a valuable lesson has been learned. If it succeeds, the same opt-in offer could be made to more high-usage customers. </p>
<p>Water agencies would need funds to support the pilot study, possibly from state or federal sources. Since pumping, treating and heating water uses energy, and thus <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114002">creates greenhouse gas emissions</a>, funds from the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/#:%7E:text=The%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act%20is,technology%2C%20manufacturing%2C%20and%20innovation.">Inflation Reduction Act</a> might be an option. Successful water conservation would <a href="https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climatechange/what-you-can-do-home_.html">help to slow climate change</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8RuVzvHVop0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer in California’s Central Valley explains how he started directing floodwaters onto his fields in wet years to recharge groundwater and buffer his lands against dry years.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, most water agencies don’t know how responsive individual customers would be to higher prices. By conducting the type of pilot study that we have described, agencies could answer that question without raising prices for vulnerable households. If such initiatives succeeded, they could be replicated in other drought-prone areas of the West. Since farms <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/water-in-the-west">consume the largest share of water</a> in western states, it is especially important to learn more about farmers’ willingness to conserve. </p>
<p>Water is essential for life, but westerners have different abilities and willingness to conserve it. We recommend a strategy that rewards those who are most able to reduce their usage without punishing those who are least able.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even after January’s storms, California faces a water-scarce future. An economist and an engineer propose a way to test higher water prices as a conservation strategy without hurting low-income users.Matthew E. Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesBhaskar Krishnamachari, Ming Hsieh Faculty Fellow and Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1945962022-11-22T18:26:20Z2022-11-22T18:26:20ZElon Musk’s buyout of Twitter has placed its user-generated archives in danger<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495989/original/file-20221117-21-xsf9nd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C80%2C4500%2C2910&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Since its founding in 2006, Twitter has become one of the largest digital datasets of a record of human history.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Twitter is in disarray. This is troubling for a platform that comprises no small part of the historical record of today. </p>
<p>While only used by a percentage of Americans (<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/05/05/10-facts-about-americans-and-twitter/">some 23 per cent in 2022</a>) and Canadians (<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/spark/388-pokemon-go-for-ecologists-fake-videos-and-more-1.4569277/how-does-your-social-media-use-stack-up-against-other-canadians-1.4569280">42 per cent of adults in 2018</a>), it has outsized value for sharing information, capturing ongoing events and shaping the cultural conversation. </p>
<p>Twitter’s role cannot be underemphasized. In advance of the 2022 American midterm elections, Twitter realized its pivotal role in shaping electoral information meant that its plan to verify anybody who paid US$8 could “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/06/technology/twitter-verification-check-marks.html">sow discord</a>.” </p>
<p>Similarly, Twitter is where many turned to information during the opening weeks of the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2022/01/04/the-vital-role-of-twitter-in-responding-to-covid/">COVID-19 pandemic</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/guns-tanks-and-twitter-how-russia-and-ukraine-are-using-social-media-as-the-war-drags-on-180131">Ukraine war</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="neon sign in red reading #TWEET TWEET, installed on top of green patterned wallpaper" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496486/original/file-20221121-23-er6qlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Twitter has become an important site for information (and disinformation).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash/Chris J. Davis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The end of Twitter?</h2>
<p>Amidst predictions <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/12/1136205315/musk-twitter-bankruptcy-how-likely">of bankruptcy</a> or even wholesale <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/08/1062886/heres-how-a-twitter-engineer-says-it-will-break-in-the-coming-weeks/">technical collapse</a>, the cultural record of all of these critical moments are <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/11/1063162/twitters-imminent-collapse-could-wipe-out-vast-records-of-recent-human-history/">now endangered</a>.</p>
<p>This is terrible because the <a href="https://theconversation.com/historians-archival-research-looks-quite-different-in-the-digital-age-121096">information that our society creates today is tomorrow’s historical record</a>. For better or worse, Twitter has been with us throughout the last decade and a half: <a href="https://help.twitter.com/en/using-twitter/us-elections">election cycles</a>, the COVID-19 pandemic (where it has been an exemplar platform for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73510-5">misinformation</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98396-9">information</a> alike), and online culture more generally (some tweets have even <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1612578/">become TV shows</a>). </p>
<p>Future historians may be able to learn about these things through media coverage of Twitter, but the ability to access the tweets themselves will be invaluable for historical research. This is doubly true for the spread of information during breaking events, when the platform itself became the main primary source for observers and participants.</p>
<p>Given the centrality of this source, it is hard to believe that it could all disappear. Could it?</p>
<h2>Unique vulnerability</h2>
<p>Twitter archives take several shapes and sizes. For a time, the most famous one was the Library of Congress’s Twitter archive. In 2010, the Library of Congress announced that it would both receive all the text of tweets dating back to 2006 and acquire them going forward. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"12178991018"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/loc/2017/12/update-on-the-twitter-archive-at-the-library-of-congress-2/">Then in December 2017</a>, the Library of Congress moved from a collect <em>everything</em> approach to a “selective basis,” curating rather <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/technology/library-congress-tweets.html">than taking everything</a>.</p>
<p>The Internet Archive, a digital library based in the United States, also collects many Twitter streams, both through its <a href="https://archive.org/web/">Wayback Machine</a> and its subscription service <a href="https://archive-it.org">Archive-It</a>, where members can choose and curate the accounts that they collect. </p>
<p>Users can go back and look at the suspended (and since reinstated) <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161109000022/https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump account</a>, for example. These web archives, however, are targeted: one needs to know the username or particular hashtag that one wants to study.</p>
<p>The Internet Archive’s holdings are not at risk, but they are very hard to search and slow to use. To truly unlock the power of Twitter research, more access is required. </p>
<h2>At-risk datasets</h2>
<p>Fortunately — for now — there is a better way: the <a href="https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/twitter-api">Twitter Application Programming Interface</a> (API). APIs are ways for computer programs to speak to each other. The <a href="https://developer.twitter.com/en/products/twitter-api/academic-research">Twitter API for Academic Research</a> program allowed researchers to apply for accounts and then design or use programs to create their own collections of both real-time or historical data. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://catalog.docnow.io">DocNow Catalog</a>, has a subset of these Twitter collections, and currently has some 142 datasets consisting of over six <em>billion</em> tweets, on topics ranging from <a href="https://catalog.docnow.io/datasets/20201020-twitter-corpus-of-the-blacklivesmatter-movement-and-counter-protests-2013-to-2020/">#BlackLivesMatter</a> (41 million tweets) to the <a href="https://catalog.docnow.io/datasets/20190222-2018-us-congressional-election/">2018 American Congressional Election</a> (171 million tweets).</p>
<p>However, to use the API, one needs to agree to the <a href="https://developer.twitter.com/en/developer-terms/agreement-and-policy">terms of service</a>. Each tweet has its own unique number. This means that these datasets do not contain the data, rather they just contain the numbers that are required to <em>get</em> the data. In other words, think of it as a library where you could only share the call numbers with other patrons, not the books themselves.</p>
<p>When the API is functional, this makes sense. Every time a search request is made, a dataset is generated. This means that the same search conducted at different moments in time would produce a different dataset. If somebody had deleted their tweet in the meantime, it would not be available for download. </p>
<p>For example, if in 2020 I had tweeted something which was recorded by a researcher but in 2021 decided to delete it, if the dataset was requested in 2022, my tweet would no longer be there. </p>
<p>But if Twitter disappears — or if the API collapses — this data could suddenly become lost. If Twitter was to completely disappear, perhaps scholars could share their original, full datasets. But some of this data may have already been deleted, perhaps due to researchers running out of storage space or facing other institutional or ethical requirements. </p>
<p>We truly are facing the prospect of widespread erasure.</p>
<h2>An incalculable loss</h2>
<p>The loss of Twitter’s 16 years of user-generated content would be a tragedy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2020-is-a-year-for-the-history-books-but-not-without-digital-archives-140234">2020 is a year for the history books, but not without digital archives</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Digital platforms like Twitter are the public town squares of today, unlike more private social media platforms like Facebook. We all have a stake in ensuring its material is preserved: governments, archivists, librarians, historians, activists, among other institutional and private stakeholders.</p>
<p>Without the Twitter archive, we risk losing important voices from the past. Many of us have experienced elections, protest and the pandemic through <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/30/twitters-doubling-of-character-count-from-140-to-280-had-little-impact-on-length-of-tweets/">280-character tweets</a>. Without these voices, we lose the unique flavour of the tumultuous times we have lived through.</p>
<p>And the next time a platform comes along, it is important for developers to consider how to archive its content for future consideration. </p>
<p>In the meantime, we can <a href="https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/how-to-download-your-twitter-archive">download our own Twitter archives</a>. <a href="https://www.theverge.com/23453703/twitter-archive-download-how-to-tweets">Several instructional guides have appeared</a> <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/dont-delete-twitter-before-you-download-all-your-tweets-and-messages/">walking users through the process</a> of <a href="https://mashable.com/article/how-to-leave-twitter-guide-elon-musk">downloading this data and making it usable</a>.</p>
<p>While lacking the preservation power of the Library of Congress, perhaps these digital scrapbooks will one day remind us of the Twitter that was.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/social-media-and-society-125586" target="_blank"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479539/original/file-20220817-20-g5jxhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=144&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="100%"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Milligan receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. </span></em></p>Over the past 16 years, Twitter has amassed an incredible amount of user-generated data which contains a detailed and extensive record of cultural moments. Musk’s takeover threatens these archives.Ian Milligan, Professor of History, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949292022-11-21T15:54:25Z2022-11-21T15:54:25ZHow to test if we’re living in a computer simulation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496450/original/file-20221121-25-963m2s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C137%2C2000%2C1607&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Physicists have long struggled to explain why the universe started out with conditions <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/fine-tuning/">suitable for life to evolve</a>. Why do the physical laws and constants <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-laws-of-physics-disprove-god-146638">take the very specific values</a> that allow stars, planets and ultimately life to develop? The expansive force of the universe, dark energy, for example, is much weaker than theory suggests it should be – allowing matter to clump together rather than being ripped apart.</p>
<p>A common answer is that we live in an infinite multiverse of universes, so we shouldn’t be surprised that at least one universe has turned out as ours. But another is that our universe is a computer simulation, with someone (perhaps an advanced alien species) fine-tuning the conditions.</p>
<p>The latter option is supported by a branch of science called <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1009.5161">information physics</a>, which suggests that space-time and matter are not fundamental phenomena. Instead, the physical reality is fundamentally made up of bits of information, from which our experience of space-time emerges. By comparison, temperature “emerges” from the collective movement of atoms. No single atom fundamentally has temperature. </p>
<p>This leads to the extraordinary possibility that our entire universe might in fact be a computer simulation. The idea is not that new. In 1989, the legendary physicist, <a href="https://phy.princeton.edu/department/history/faculty-history/john-wheeler">John Archibald Wheeler</a>, suggested that the universe is fundamentally mathematical and it can be seen as emerging from information. He coined the famous aphorism “<a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/it-bit">it from bit</a>”. </p>
<p>In 2003, philosopher <a href="https://nickbostrom.com/">Nick Bostrom</a> from Oxford University in the UK formulated his <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/BOSAWL">simulation hypothesis</a>. This argues that it is actually highly probable that we live in a simulation. That’s because an advanced civilisation should reach a point where their technology is so sophisticated that simulations would be indistinguishable from reality, and the participants would not be aware that they were in a simulation.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XVIlT-4xyrw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>Physicist <a href="https://meche.mit.edu/people/faculty/SLLOYD@MIT.EDU">Seth Lloyd</a> from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US took the simulation hypothesis to the next level by suggesting that the entire universe <a href="https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.237901">could be a giant quantum computer</a>.<br>
And in 2016, business magnate Elon Musk concluded “We’re most likely in a simulation” (see video above).</p>
<h2>Empirical evidence</h2>
<p>There is some evidence suggesting that our physical reality could be a simulated virtual reality rather than an objective world that exists independently of the observer.</p>
<p>Any virtual reality world will be based on information processing. That means everything is ultimately digitised or pixelated down to a minimum size that cannot be subdivided further: bits. This appears to mimic our reality according to the theory of quantum mechanics, which rules the world of atoms and particles. It states there is a <a href="https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/the-planck-scale">smallest, discrete unit</a> of energy, length and time. Similarly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-fundamental-particles-38339">elementary particles</a>, which make up all the visible matter in the universe, are the smallest units of matter. To put it simply, our world is pixelated.</p>
<p>The laws of physics that govern everything in the universe also resemble computer code lines that a simulation would follow in the execution of the program. Moreover, mathematical equations, numbers and geometric patterns <a href="https://theconversation.com/mathematics-is-beautiful-no-really-72921">are present everywhere</a> – the world appears to be entirely mathematical. </p>
<p>Another curiosity in physics supporting the simulation hypothesis is the maximum speed limit in our universe, which is the speed of light. In a virtual reality, this limit would correspond to the speed limit of the processor, or the processing power limit. We know that an overloaded processor slows down computer processing in a simulation. Similarly, Albert Einstein’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-einsteins-general-theory-of-relativity-killed-off-common-sense-physics-50042">theory of general relativity</a> shows that time slows in the vicinity of a black hole.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most supportive evidence of the simulation hypothesis comes from quantum mechanics. This suggest nature isn’t “real”: particles in determined states, such as specific locations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-common-misconceptions-about-quantum-physics-192062">don’t seem to exist</a> unless you actually observe or measure them. Instead, they are in a mix of different states simultaneously. Similarly, virtual reality needs an observer or programmer for things to happen. </p>
<p>Quantum “entanglement” also allows two particles to be spookily connected so that if you manipulate one, you automatically and immediately also manipulate the other, no matter how far apart they are – with the effect being seemingly faster than the speed of light, which should be impossible.</p>
<p>This could, however, also be explained by the fact that within a virtual reality code, all “locations” (points) should be roughly equally far from a central processor. So while we may think two particles are millions of light years apart, they wouldn’t be if they were created in a simulation.</p>
<h2>Possible experiments</h2>
<p>Assuming that the universe is indeed a simulation, then what sort of experiments could we deploy from within the simulation to prove this?</p>
<p>It is reasonable to assume that a simulated universe would contain a lot of information bits everywhere around us. These information bits represent the code itself. Hence, detecting these information bits will prove the simulation hypothesis. The recently proposed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5123794">mass-energy-information (M/E/I) equivalence principle</a> – suggesting mass can be expressed as energy or information, or vice versa – states that information bits must have a small mass. This gives us something to search for.</p>
<p>I have postulated that information is in fact a fifth form of matter in the universe. I’ve even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0064475">calculated the expected information content</a> per elementary particle. These studies led to the publication, in 2022, of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0087175">an experimental protocol</a> to test these predictions. The experiment involves erasing the information contained inside elementary particles by letting them and their antiparticles (all particles have “anti” versions of themselves which are identical but have opposite charge) annihilate in a flash of energy – emitting “photons”, or light particles.</p>
<p>I have predicted the exact range of expected frequencies of the resulting photons based on information physics. The experiment is highly achievable with our existing tools, and we <a href="https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/is-the-universe-a-simulation-let-s-test-it--2#/">have launched a crowdfunding site</a>) to achieve it. </p>
<p>There are other approaches too. The late physicist <a href="https://royalsociety.org/people/john-barrow-11044/">John Barrow</a> has argued that a simulation would build up minor computational errors which the programmer would need to fix in order to keep it going. He suggested we might <a href="https://www.simulation-argument.com/barrowsim.pdf">experience such fixing</a> as contradictory experimental results appearing suddenly, such as the constants of nature changing. So monitoring the values of these constants is another option.</p>
<p>The nature of our reality is one of the greatest mysteries out there. The more we take the simulation hypothesis seriously, the greater the chances we may one day prove or disprove it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melvin M. Vopson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There may be ways to check if our universe is just simulated entertainment for an advanced, alien species.Melvin M. Vopson, Senior Lecturer in Physics, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1723622021-12-01T13:31:41Z2021-12-01T13:31:41ZAaron Rodgers dropped the ball on critical thinking – with a little practice you can do better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434749/original/file-20211130-27-1si37tj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=997%2C449%2C4994%2C3538&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">However Rodgers came to his decision to remain unvaccinated, he did not follow the tenets of critical thinking.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aaron-rodgers-of-the-green-bay-packers-looks-on-during-news-photo/1356221041">Patrick McDermott/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was hard to miss the news about Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers testing positive for COVID-19 on Nov. 3. Like the <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status">vast majority of people</a> currently catching – and dying from – the coronavirus, he was unvaccinated.</p>
<p>A few days after his diagnosis, <a href="https://youtu.be/Y3JU_oAEinQ">Rodgers took to the airwaves</a> to offer a smorgasbord of <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-covid-pat-mcafee-show-target-woke-mob/1caksb1mfhcrj1dgikrkvttu90">pandemic misinformation and conspiracy theories</a> in defense of his decision to skip the COVID-19 vaccine. </p>
<p>Having listened to many an interview with Rodgers, I found it totally predictable that he began his comments by asserting, “I’m not, you know, some sort of anti-vax, flat-earther.” </p>
<p>But as someone who does research on how people think and decide, it’s what Rodgers said next that caused me to lean in: “I am somebody who’s a critical thinker.” </p>
<p>Critical thinker? The fact is, research on the link between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13833">critical thinking ability and behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic</a> suggests that Rodgers is the opposite.</p>
<p>For scientists <a href="https://twitter.com/DecisionLab">like me</a> whose job it is to unravel how people instinctively make choices, and then to help them make better ones, critical thinking isn’t just a slogan used to score points. It’s not some after-the-fact justification someone makes to convince others – or themselves – that their opinions or behaviors are sound.</p>
<p>Instead, critical thinking is a pattern of behaviors that happen before someone makes a judgment, like coming to the conclusion that something is risky. Likewise, critical thinking comes before making a decision, like choosing to avoid something judged to be too risky for comfort.</p>
<p>Here’s what it really takes to be a critical thinker.</p>
<h2>Three ingredients for critical thinking</h2>
<p>Critical thinking as a precursor to sound judgments and decisions involves three related elements that are accessible to almost anyone. </p>
<p>First, critical thinking means being able to recognize that there are situations where you must <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html">balance your instinctive reactions</a> to what’s going on around you, based on emotions like fear and desire, with the need for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2020.37">heavier psychological lift</a>. In these cases, it’s crucial to take note of conflicting objectives and make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2019.1569107">difficult trade-offs</a>.</p>
<p>Take the pandemic, which, thanks to the arrival of new variants like omicron, has gone into overtime. You may have a strong desire to live your “normal” life as you knew it before COVID-19 started to spread; at the same time, you probably want to keep those around you safe and secure. Knowing where to draw the line between personal comfort and the well-being of those around you means putting your emotions to the side and diving into data so you can better understand the broader consequences of your intended actions.</p>
<p>Second, critical thinking means following some <a href="https://sjdm.org/dmidi/Actively_Open-Minded_Thinking_Beliefs.html">basic principles</a> when you search for and use information. You must be open to and consider more than one solution to a problem, without ignoring or dismissing evidence that goes against your initial beliefs. And you must be willing to change your mind and your behavior in response to new information or insights.</p>
<p>Last, critical thinking means recognizing when you are out of your depth and then looking to legitimate experts for help. In other words, critical thinkers understand when it’s time <a href="http://www.sjdm.org/presentations/2019-Poster-Baron-Jonathan-endorse-AOT-cues.pdf">to outsource critical thinking</a> to others. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodgers confers with a coach on the sidelines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Consulting those with additional expertise can be an important part of critical thinking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/green-bay-packers-head-coach-matt-lafleur-talks-to-news-photo/1190913564">Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>But this raises an important question: How do you figure out who is an actual expert? Critical thinkers answer this question by not just looking at someone’s stature or credentials. They also assess potential experts’ behaviors with respect to the first two elements of critical thinking. How good is the expert at balancing instinct with the need for more in-depth analysis? And does the expert follow the basic principles that should govern the search for and use of information?</p>
<h2>Everyone loses when critical thinking is sidelined</h2>
<p>Consider the results of a recent study conducted during what scientists around the world agree is a serious public health crisis. In it, my colleagues and I found that people in the U.S. who score high on a scale used to measure critical thinking ability <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13833">judge COVID-19 to pose a real and significant risk</a> to public health. They also placed greater trust in legitimate public health experts, and – importantly – behaved in a manner that is more consistent with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html">pandemic risk management strategies</a> recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p>
<p>Judging by his behavior and statements, Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t have belonged in this group. Indeed, Rodgers’ own comments suggest he fumbled his way through the three elements of critical thinking. </p>
<p>In spite of his claim that his decision to remain unvaccinated involved “a lot of time, energy and research,” it seems he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/kidspost/aaron-rodgers-played-scientist-when-he-should-have-stuck-to-playing-football/2021/11/10/3d3b1b48-36b4-11ec-9bc4-86107e7b0ab1_story.html">neither understood nor weighed the trade-off</a> between the exceedingly slim chance of becoming sick from one of the available vaccines versus the much higher probability of becoming sick – or making others sick – from COVID-19. </p>
<p>And historically, Rodgers hasn’t been shy about <a href="https://torontosun.com/sports/football/nfl/aaron-rodgers-wont-let-woke-cancel-culture-stop-him-from-expressing-himself">dismissing viewpoints</a> that run counter to his own. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/the-selfish-individualism-of-aaron-rodgers">Boasting about his COVID-19 infection</a>, Rodgers confessed as much when he said, “I march to the beat of my own drum.” </p>
<p>Finally his success rate when it comes to handing off critical thinking to others is lousy. On COVID-19, he follows the advice of pseudo-experts like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/business/joe-rogan-covid-19.html">Joe Rogan</a> over that of <a href="https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/open-letter-american-public-covid-19-vaccines">actual medical experts</a> and has chosen to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-rodgers-packers-covid-vaccine-ivermectin-woke-mob/">subject himself</a> to a demonstrably dangerous drug, <a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/why-you-should-not-use-ivermectin-treat-or-prevent-covid-19">ivermectin</a>, instead of a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html">safe and effective vaccine</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodgers on the ground post-fumble with football out of reach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rodgers fumbled on critical thinking when he overvalued advice from people who don’t have deep knowledge on coronavirus prevention and treatment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kony-ealy-of-the-carolina-panthers-forces-a-fumble-as-he-news-photo/496327324">Grant Halverson/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is far from alone when it comes to poor critical thinking. And, making matters worse, the implications of uncritical thinking extend well beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Indeed, the poster child for an absence of critical thinking is the political divide in the U.S. From Main Street America to the U.S. Capitol, I’d argue that nothing says my-way-or-the-highway like the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-new-report-offers-insights-into-tribalism-in-the-age-of-trump">inflexible tribalism</a> that has infected important policy issues ranging from <a href="http://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/syndicated/fear-racism-public-manipulated-politics-tribalism/">inequality</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/15/the-climate-change-movement-must-overcome-political-tribalism">climate change</a> to <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2019/09/14/david-burns-why-is-gun/">guns</a> and <a href="https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/health-care-reform-in-the-age-of-partisan-deadlock-and-tribal-politics/">health care</a>. Balancing fast-acting emotion with the slow burn of analysis, a willingness to change your mind and compromise, and the courage to admit you are not an expert – and to trust those who are – seem as far away in politics today <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/1968-and-2020-lessons-from-americas-worst-year-so-far/612415/">as they have been in decades</a>.</p>
<h2>Training camp for critical thinking</h2>
<p>On the bright side, and with a little practice, people can learn to think critically. Unlike other tasks that require highly specialized skills – like playing the position of quarterback in the NFL – critical thinking is well within the reach of nearly anyone willing to put in the reps.</p>
<p>Studies show, for example, that critical thinking can be activated in the moment just before certain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2018.1548379">judgments</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101964">choices</a> need to be made. Researchers also know that the <a href="https://sjdm.org/dmidi/Actively_Open-Minded_Thinking_Beliefs.html">basic principles</a> of critical thinking <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1464-0597.1993.tb00731.x">can be taught</a>, even to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/109019819101800302">young children and adolescents</a>. And, for complicated judgments and choices, people can take advantage of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es4036286">decision-support tools</a> that help them clarify their objectives, consider relevant information, evaluate a wide range of options and understand the compromises that come with choosing one possibility over another.</p>
<p>Deploying the skills of critical thinking ultimately requires one more important ingredient, though, and this one can’t easily be taught: courage. It takes courage to break from your closely held opinions and, especially, from the relative sanctuary offered by your social or political circle. And it takes courage to publicly change your mind and your behavior.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodgers initiates a pass with an opposing player coming at him" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It takes courage to be a critical thinker, especially when you might take a hit for it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aaron-rodgers-of-the-green-bay-packers-throws-a-pass-while-news-photo/1293522412">Dylan Buell/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>But here too there’s a bright side. Changing your mind and behavior because you thought critically about something doesn’t mean that your earlier opinions and behaviors were a mistake. On the contrary, it’s a public display that you learned something important and new. And that, at least as much as success on the <a href="https://www.wiscnews.com/sports/football/professional/frozen-tundra-the-5-coldest-games-in-green-bay-packers-history/collection_17677ba1-d47b-565a-9fb1-bb89327ba36e.html">frozen tundra</a> of Rodgers’ home field in Green Bay, is worthy of respect and admiration.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Árvai has received funding from The National Science Foundation, NASA, and NOAA. In addition to his work at the University of Southern California, he serves as a member of the U.S. EPA’s Science Advisory Board, and as an advisor to a broad range of government agencies, businesses and NGOs.</span></em></p>Critical thinking means seeking out new information – especially facts that might run contrary to what you believe – and being willing to change your mind. And it’s a teachable skill.Joe Árvai, Dana and David Dornsife Professor of Psychology and Director of the Wrigley Institute for Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1638672021-08-13T12:26:27Z2021-08-13T12:26:27ZThe Internet Archive has been fighting for 25 years to keep what’s on the web from disappearing – and you can help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414602/original/file-20210804-23-165zzel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4007%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People are warned that what they post on the internet will live forever. But that’s not really the case.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/database-royalty-free-image/95769788">3alexd/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year the <a href="https://anniversary.archive.org/">Internet Archive</a> turns 25. It’s best known for its pioneering role in archiving the internet through the <a href="https://archive.org/web/">Wayback Machine</a>, which allows users to see how websites looked in the past. </p>
<p>Increasingly, much of daily life is conducted online. School, work, communication with friends and family, as well as news and images, are accessed through a variety of websites. Information that once was printed, physically mailed or kept in photo albums and notebooks may now be available only online. The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed even more interactions to the web. </p>
<p>You may not realize portions of the internet are constantly disappearing. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=tOu7IyUAAAAJ">librarians</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=o-1tqcMAAAAJ">and</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=YBgTrPMAAAAJ">archivists</a>, we strengthen collective memory by preserving materials that document the cultural heritage of society, including on the web. You can help us save the internet, too, as a citizen archivist. </p>
<h2>Disappearing act</h2>
<p>People and organizations remove content from the web for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it’s a result of changing internet culture, such as the recent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/06/technology/yahoo-answers-shutting-down.html">shutdown of Yahoo Answers</a>. </p>
<p>It can also be a result of following best practices for website design. When a website is updated, for example, the previous version is overwritten – unless it was archived.</p>
<p>Web archiving is the process of collecting, preserving and providing continued access to information on the internet. Often this work is done by librarians and archivists, with assistance from automated technology like web crawlers. </p>
<p>Web crawlers are programs that index web pages to make them available through search engines, or for long-term preservation. The Internet Archive, a nonprofit organization, uses thousands of computer servers to save multiple digital copies of these pages, requiring <a href="https://archive.org/about/">over 70 petabytes of data</a>. It is funded through donations, grants and payments for its digitization services. Over <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/19avU5I3qi-EUjDpNSWaN7HTBlq0oD93EtwOnukFM8gY/edit">750 million web pages are captured per day</a> in the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.</p>
<h2>Why archive?</h2>
<p>In 2018, President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-fact-check-trump-wrongly-claims-google-shunned-speech">wrongly claimed via Twitter</a> that Google had promoted on its homepage President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address, but not his own. Archived versions of the Google homepage proved that Google had, in fact, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180131023314/http://www.google.com/">highlighted Trump’s State of the Union address</a> in the same manner. Multiple news outlets use the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine as the source for fact-checking these types of claims, since screenshots alone can be easily altered.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cjr.org/tow_center_reports/the-dire-state-of-news-archiving-in-the-digital-age.php">A 2019 report from the Tow Center for Digital Journalism</a> examined the digital archiving practices and policies of newspapers, magazines and other news producers. The interviews revealed that many news media staff either do not have the resources to devote to archiving their work or misunderstand digital archiving by equating it to having a backup version. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/gawker-archives-freedom-of-press-foundation-toast-la-weekly/">a news story disappeared from the Gawker website</a> a year after the publication shut down, the <a href="https://freedom.press/">Freedom of the Press Foundation</a> became concerned with what might happen when wealthy individuals purchase websites with the intent to delete or censor the archives. It partnered with the Internet Archive to launch a <a href="https://archive-it.org/collections/9790">web archive collection</a> focused on preserving the web archives of vulnerable news outlets – and to dissuade billionaires from purchasing such material to censor.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A webpage from the Wayback Machine showing 9971 available search results for 'Black Lives Matter' between October 8, 2014, and August 2, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414591/original/file-20210804-21-gp3e9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The web crawls for blacklivesmatter.com in the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://web.archive.org/web/*/www.blacklivesmatter.com">Internet Archive Wayback Machine</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Archiving websites that document social justice issues, such as <a href="https://blacklivesmatter.com">Black Lives Matter</a>, helps explain these movements to people of the present and the future. </p>
<p>Archiving government websites promotes transparency and accountability. Especially during times of transition, government websites are vulnerable to deletion with changing political parties. </p>
<p>In 2017 <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/26/573609499/library-of-congress-will-no-longer-archive-every-tweet">the Library of Congress announced</a> it would no longer archive every single tweet, because of Twitter’s growth as a communication tool. Twitter supplies the Library of Congress with the texts of tweets, not shared images or videos. Instead of comprehensive collecting, the Library of Congress now archives only tweets of significant national importance.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A pastel colored early home page that reads 'Welcome to the OFFICIAL website of: ty'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414593/original/file-20210804-21-ihxgcu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screen capture from the Dec. 18, 1996, archived version of the Ty website, creator of.
Beanie Babies, in the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://web.archive.org/web/19961218231232/http://www.ty.com/">Internet Archive Wayback Machine</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Archived websites that document the culture and history of the internet, like <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7jzgm/the-geocities-archive-is-bringing-the-early-internet-to-life">the Geocities Gallery</a>, not only are fun to look at but illustrate the ways early websites were created and used by individuals. </p>
<h2>Citizen archivists</h2>
<p>Archiving the internet is a monumental task, one that librarians and archivists cannot do alone. Anyone can be a citizen archivist and preserve history through the <a href="https://www.archive.org/web/">Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine</a>. The “<a href="https://web.archive.org/save/">Save Page Now</a>” feature allows anyone to freely archive a single, public website page. Bear in mind, some websites prevent web crawling and archiving through special coding or by requiring a login to the site. This may be due to sensitive content or the personal preference of the web developer.</p>
<p>Local cultural heritage institutions, such as libraries, archives and museums, are also actively archiving the internet. Over 800 institutions use <a href="https://archive-it.org/">Archive-It</a>, a tool from the Internet Archive, to create archived web collections. At the <a href="https://archive-it.org/home/udayton">University of Dayton</a> we curate collections related to our Catholic and Marianist heritage, from Catholic blogs to stories of the Virgin Mary in the news.</p>
<p>Through its <a href="https://archive-it.org/blog/projects/spontaneous-events/">Spontaneous Event collections</a>, Archive-It partners with organizations and individuals to create collections of “web content related to a specific event, capturing at risk content during times of crisis.” </p>
<p>Similarly, it created the <a href="https://communitywebs.archive-it.org/">Community Webs program</a>, in partnership with the <a href="https://www.imls.gov/">Institute of Museum and Library Services</a>, to help public libraries create collections of archived web content relevant to local communities.</p>
<p>The websites of today are the historical evidence of tomorrow, but only if they are archived. If they are lost, we will lose crucial information about corporate and government decisions, modern communication methods such as social media, and social movements with significant online presences, such as Black Lives Matter and #MeToo. </p>
<p>Together with librarians and archivists, you can help ensure the survival of this evidence and save internet history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Portions of the internet disappear every day. Preservation of this historical record requires a proactive approach by archivists and everyday citizens.Kayla Harris, Librarian/Archivist at the Marian Library, Associate Professor, University of DaytonChristina Beis, Director of Collections Strategies & Services, Associate Professor, University Libraries, University of DaytonStephanie Shreffler, Collections Librarian/Archivist and Associate Professor, University Libraries, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1561672021-06-24T12:08:50Z2021-06-24T12:08:50Z‘Wrong number? Let’s chat’ Maasai herders in East Africa use misdials to make connections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406852/original/file-20210616-3839-1ts9may.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Maasai man receives a call on his mobile phone.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy D. Baird/Virginia Tech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sometimes wrong numbers work. On the East African savanna, Maasai herders can form important new social connections when they misdial their mobile phones, our new study of these communities found. Maasai have traditionally lived in relatively independent, homogeneous groups, but these misdials introduce them to strangers near and far. And some even become friends or business partners. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RJhAV0UAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Our</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qNx30xgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">research</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oJ1fYxUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">into</a> how Maasai in Tanzania use their phones shows us how <a href="https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12528-260241">technology, error and openness</a> can bring diverse people together.</p>
<p>Maasai social life centers on family connections. However, groups organized by age and clan are also longstanding and critically important. In a challenging savanna landscape, these intersecting social networks provide a strong web of friendships and business partnerships alike. And now, with mobile phones, communication across these networks is much easier.</p>
<p>Earlier studies showed that Maasai <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.05.031">use phones widely</a> to communicate with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-014-9710-4">people they already know</a>. It’s much less common for them to use phones to communicate with strangers. Generally, people meet face-to-face and <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-the-savanna-mobile-phones-havent-transformed-maasai-lives-yet-78725">stay in touch using phones</a>.</p>
<p>This may be changing – and in a way that can offer lessons for societies and technology companies around the world.</p>
<h2>‘Good things happen’</h2>
<p>Approximately 2 million Maasai live primarily in Kenya and Tanzania. Between 2018 and 2019, our team interviewed hundreds of Maasai in Tanzania to learn more about how they use phones. We discovered that some Maasai form meaningful social connections with people they meet through wrong numbers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People walk across a reddish dirt area with grass-roofed huts in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406745/original/file-20210616-13-1thuit2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers visit a Maasai homestead in Longido District, Tanzania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gabriel Ole Saitoti/Savanna Land Use Project</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When asked why people use phones this way, one respondent commented, “Good things happen.”</p>
<p>In our 2021 paper, we discuss <a href="https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12528-260241">how and why Maasai form these accidental friendships</a>, how common they are, and how they relate to local livelihoods.</p>
<p>First, misdials may be more common in Maasai groups than in others. Low levels of literacy can lead to errors when people aren’t familiar with the numbers and letters printed on phone buttons. Poor access to electricity can also cause errors. When phone batteries die, people borrow other phones and enter numbers manually. But mistakes are common, and people can be randomly connected across Tanzania and parts of Kenya. </p>
<p>Respondents told us that they can be genuinely curious about calls from unfamiliar numbers and are happy to answer. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in traditional Maasai dress holds a phone up to look at it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406836/original/file-20210616-2626-12afmzh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Maasai man checks the number of an incoming call.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. Terrence McCabe/University of Colorado Boulder</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When wrong numbers do occur, callers may simply recognize the error and hang up promptly. But they may also chat and get to know each other. For example, if both parties begin the call speaking Maa, the Maasai language, they may want to learn more about each other. By sharing what age groups and clans they belong to, callers mark their social positions relative to each other. From there, livestock and weather can be easy topics to discuss. </p>
<p>But even callers from different ethnic groups connect. Most Maasai also speak Swahili, the national language of Tanzania. Callers may talk about anything, but conversations about social networks and business activities seem to be common. Ultimately, when either party saves the number and uses it again, a kind of accidental friendship is formed.</p>
<h2>Accidental friends offer information, resources</h2>
<p>In our sample of roughly 300 Maasai men, 46% have had one of these accidental friendships. Women, we were told, do not form these friendships because men, often controlling husbands, limit or monitor <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.04.013">women’s access to phones</a>. Men, however, form these ties for many reasons.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holds a phone to his ear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406752/original/file-20210616-3738-jqjufp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Maasai man talks on his phone during a community gathering.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy D. Baird/Virginia Tech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, social networks are critically important to Maasai. In the absence of other social safety nets, like insurance or Medicaid, networks help them manage many challenges. So it’s not necessarily surprising that some have leveraged wrong numbers to learn about other people and places. Distant contacts can be valuable for future travel. As pastoralists who graze large herds across wide areas, Maasai are especially interested in the weather, forage quality and livestock conditions elsewhere. They’re also watchful for opportunities to gain business connections and access to land. Ultimately the dial-and-talk ease of mobile technology suits mobile herders well. </p>
<p>Information itself is valuable and can also lead to materials, markets and money. One Maasai described how, during a difficult drought, he was able to move his livestock to land in another village to graze. This was illegal, but the accidental friend he had made in that village pretended the animals were his own – and the herd survived where many didn’t. </p>
<p>Another person described how he connected with a man far away on the coast who was looking for a rare medicinal plant. This Maasai now harvests the plant and makes regular shipments to a buyer in Dar es Salaam, the country’s largest city.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A metal tower rises far above trees and shrubs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406747/original/file-20210616-15-1npk79v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cellular tower in the study area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy D. Baird/Virginia Tech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Groups also shared stories of how Maasai have rented land to outsiders to start new farms. One described how he’s become close friends with his tenant and learned much about agriculture.</p>
<p>Accidental friendships, especially between Maa-speaking individuals, can also mobilize and reinforce longstanding cultural practices. People told us how they had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.02.002">exchanged traditional gifts of livestock</a> to formalize their friendships. One man shared how he helped an accidental friend far in the south find a traditional Maasai leader who would travel to arbitrate a difficult local disagreement. </p>
<p>For Maasai, who are traditionally polygamous and typically arrange marriages, wrong numbers can help. On two occasions, men told us they had found wives for their sons through accidental friends.</p>
<h2>Wrong numbers gone wrong</h2>
<p>As could be expected, there are concerns and problems with this practice. Valuable new social ties can disappear without recourse when phones are lost or broken. Also, opportunistic or duplicitous callers can use wrong numbers as an excuse to press scams to get rich quick, cure disease, become famous or find love. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a darkened room, phone screens light two men's faces." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406754/original/file-20210616-19-178tzd6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two Maasai men check their phones at a local bar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy D. Baird/Virginia Tech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3540">Studies of pastoralists</a> have also found that mobile phones have become vehicles for dishonesty. A study in Kenya found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.12.001">people lie about weather conditions</a> to exclude outside herds from valuable forage. And a study in Tanzania found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.05.031">people lie about where they are</a> to avoid in-person visits, which are often requests for financial assistance. Our team has also reported that young brides can use phones to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.04.013">facilitate extramarital affairs</a>, a new method for an old practice in polygamous marriages, assuredly used by men and women alike.</p>
<p>With this study, we also found that accidental friendships can amplify tensions surrounding land. </p>
<p>Throughout northern Tanzania, access to land is increasingly scarce due to population growth and the spread of commercial agriculture. In some of our study communities, people are concerned about the conversion of grazing lands, critical for livestock and wildlife, into new farms. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a button-down shirt and trousers stands in a field with a phone held to his ear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406748/original/file-20210616-15-1cmrmlq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Maasai man talks on his phone near his neighbor’s bean harvest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy D. Baird/Virginia Tech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Outsiders often view our study region as wide open and undeveloped. We learned that when people from distant areas discover they’ve connected with someone from that area, they can ask about getting land to convert to agriculture – sometimes badgering their contacts. Ultimately, local tensions surrounding grazing, agriculture and shrinking access to land can become inflamed when local Maasai provide plots to accidental friends and their families rather than other locals. </p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Accidental friends are social networking innovations</h2>
<p>These findings contrast somewhat with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1717">studies from other developing areas</a> around the world that have highlighted how phones are important for maintaining connections within familiar groups. Here, phone-driven errors help people expand their networks and even their income.</p>
<p>Broadly, these ties create important new opportunities for individuals but new challenges for communities. And they are new types of connections that can undermine important older ones.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a crowd of people in traditional Maasai dress, one man holds a mobile phone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406755/original/file-20210616-21-jligkn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A young Maasai man checks his phone during a ceremonial dance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy D. Baird/Virginia Tech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Accidental friends don’t fit neatly with scholars’ understanding of how people connect. In life, people’s encounters with each other are circumscribed by many factors. Race, class, gender, occupation and geography all limit whom people encounter and connect with. But through wrong numbers, those factors play a much smaller role in who Maasai encounter. In a way, wrong numbers expand their horizons.</p>
<p>Like many groups in developing areas, Maasai haven’t yet become immersed in smartphones and their trappings. But their use of wrong numbers may still offer insights for a more “social” social media. The basic decision to engage with a stranger, one encountered nearly randomly, suggests an openness to diversity and a general sense of optimism about people. Given humans’ innate desire to connect, perhaps the technology landscape needs more mistakes – not fewer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy D. Baird received funding from the National Science Foundation (BCS-1660428) for this project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Woodhouse received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ES/R003351/1).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>J. Terrence McCabe received funding from the National Science Foundation (BCS-1660428) for this project.</span></em></p>Maasai in Tanzania use their mobile phones all the time – usually to communicate with people they already know. But dialing errors can also breed friendships and business opportunities.Timothy D. Baird, Associate Professor of Geography, Virginia TechEmily Woodhouse, Lecturer in Interdisciplinary Environmental Anthropology and Human Ecology, UCLJ. Terrence McCabe, Professor of Anthropology, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1599642021-05-04T15:17:33Z2021-05-04T15:17:33ZThe world’s data explained: how much we’re producing and where it’s all stored<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398617/original/file-20210504-15-1qa3xdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=250%2C250%2C4752%2C1978&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/smart-city-abstract-dot-point-connect-1499306735">Shutterstock/ jamesteohart</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ancient humans stored information in cave paintings, the oldest we know of are over <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/3/eabd4648">40,000 years old</a>. As humans evolved, the emergence of languages and the invention of writing led to detailed information being stored in various written forms, culminating with the invention of paper in China around the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/china-quarterly/article/abs/science-and-civilisation-in-china-volume-5-chemistry-and-chemical-technology-part-i-paper-and-printing-by-tsuenhsuin-tsien-edited-by-needham-joseph-cambridge-cambridge-university-">first century AD</a>. </p>
<p>The oldest printed books appeared in China between <a href="https://hongkong.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.5790/hongkong/9789622097810.001.0001/upso-9789622097810">AD600 and AD900</a>. For over a millennium, books remained the main source of information storage.</p>
<p>Humans achieved more technological development in the past 150 years than during the previous 2,000 years. Arguably one of the most important developments in human history was the invention of digital electronics. </p>
<p>Since the discovery of the transistor in 1947 and the integrated microchip in 1956, our society experienced a shift. In just over 50 years, we’ve achieved unprecedented computing power, wireless technologies, the internet, artificial intelligence, and advances in display technologies, mobile communications, transportation, genetics, medicine and space exploration. </p>
<p>Most importantly, the introduction of digital data storage also changed the way we produce, manipulate and store information. The transition point took place in 1996 when digital storage became <a href="https://doi.org/10.1147/sj.422.0205">more cost-effective</a> for storing information than paper. </p>
<p>Digital data storage technologies are very diverse. Most notable are magnetic storage (HDD, tape), optical discs (CD, DVD, Blu-Ray) and semiconductor memories (SSD, flash drive). Each type of memory is more useful to specific applications. </p>
<p>Semiconductor memories are the preferred choice for portable electronics, optical storage is mostly used for movies, software and gaming, while magnetic data storage remains the dominant technology for high-capacity information storage, including personal computers and data servers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-jane-austen-quote-encoded-in-plastic-molecules-demonstrates-the-potential-for-a-new-kind-of-data-storage-159478">A Jane Austen quote encoded in plastic molecules demonstrates the potential for a new kind of data storage</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All digital data storage technologies operate on the same principles. Bits of information can be stored in any material containing two distinctive and switchable physical states. In binary code, the digital information is stored as ones and zeroes, also known as bits. Eight bits form a byte. </p>
<p>A logical zero or one is allocated to each physical state. The smaller these physical states are, the more bits can be packed in the storage device. The width of digital bits today is around ten to 30 nanometres (billionths of a metre). These devices are very complex because developing devices capable of storing information at this scale requires controlling materials on the atomic level.</p>
<h2>Big data</h2>
<p>Digital information has become so entrenched in all aspects of our lives and society, that the recent growth in information production appears unstoppable. Each day on Earth we generate <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/data-generated-each-day-wide.html">500 million tweets</a>, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/456500/daily-number-of-e-mails-worldwide/">294 billion emails</a>, <a href="https://kinsta.com/blog/facebook-statistics/">4 million gigabytes</a> of Facebook data, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/whatsapp-65-billion-messages-sent-each-day-and-more-than-2-billion-minutes-of-calls/">65 billion WhatsApp messages</a> and <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/259477/hours-of-video-uploaded-to-youtube-every-minute/">720,000 hours</a> of new content added daily on YouTube.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.idc.com/">In 2018</a>, the total amount of data created, captured, copied and consumed in the world was 33 zettabytes (ZB) – the equivalent of 33 trillion gigabytes. This grew to 59ZB in 2020 and is predicted to reach a mind-boggling 175ZB by 2025. One zettabyte is 8,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bits.</p>
<p>To help visualise these numbers, let’s imagine that each bit is a £1 coin, which is around 3mm (0.1 inches) thick. One ZB made up of a stack of coins would be 2,550 lightyears. This can get you to the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, 600 times. Currently, each year we produce 59 times that amount of data and the estimated compound growth rate <a href="https://www.datanami.com/2018/11/27/global-datasphere-to-hit-175-zettabytes-by-2025-idc-says/">is around 61%</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A long corridor with rows of digital storage devices either side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398619/original/file-20210504-23-1t02hm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A data centre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/modern-interior-server-room-data-center-1717870393">Shutterstock/mkfilm</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Data storage</h2>
<p>Most digital information is stored in three types of location. First is the global collection of what are called endpoints, which include all internet of things devices, PCs, smartphones and all other information storage devices. Second is the edge, which includes infrastructure such as cell towers, institutional servers and offices, such as universities, government offices, banks and factories. Third, most of the data is stored in what’s known as the core – traditional data servers and cloud data centres.</p>
<p>There are around <a href="https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/microsoft-amazon-and-google-account-for-over-half-of-todays-600-hyperscale-data-centers">600 hyperscale data centres</a> – ones with over 5,000 servers – in the world. Around 39% of them are in the US, while China, Japan, UK, Germany and Australia account for about 30% of the total. </p>
<p>The largest data servers in the world are China Telecom Data Centre, in Hohhot, China, which occupies 10.7 million square feet and <a href="https://www.switch.com/tahoe-reno/">The Citadel</a> in Tahoe Reno, Nevada, which occupies 7.2 million square feet and uses 815 megawatts of power.</p>
<p>To meet the ever-growing demand for digital data storage, around 100 new hyperscale data centres are built every two years. <a href="https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0019941">My recent study</a> examined these trends and concluded that, at a 50% annual growth rate, around 150 years from now the number of digital bits would reach an impossible value, exceeding the number of all atoms on Earth. About <a href="https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0028117">110 years</a> from now, the power required to sustain this digital production will exceed the total planetary power consumption today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melvin M. Vopson received funding from EPSRC and the Royal Society. </span></em></p>The growth in information production appears unstoppable.Melvin M. Vopson, Senior Lecturer in Physics, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1496152020-11-18T20:25:47Z2020-11-18T20:25:47Z3 reasons for information exhaustion – and what to do about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369878/original/file-20201117-13-20yh3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C0%2C3332%2C2437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman views a manipulated video that changes what is said by President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-in-washington-dc-views-a-manipulated-video-on-january-news-photo/1090433874?adppopup=true">ROB LEVER/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An endless flow of information is coming at us constantly: It might be an article a friend shared on Facebook with a sensational headline or wrong information about the spread of the coronavirus. It could even be a call from a relative wanting to talk about a political issue. </p>
<p>All this information may leave many of us feeling as though we have no energy to engage. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://clasprofiles.wayne.edu/profile/hf1190">philosopher</a> who studies <a href="https://philpeople.org/profiles/mark-satta">knowledge-sharing practices</a>, I call this experience “epistemic exhaustion.” The term “epistemic” comes from the Greek word <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology/">episteme</a>, often translated as “knowledge.” So epistemic exhaustion is more of a knowledge-related exhaustion.</p>
<p>It is not knowledge itself that tires out many of us. Rather, it is the process of trying to gain or share knowledge under challenging circumstances. </p>
<p>Currently, there are at least three common sources that, from my perspective, are leading to such exhaustion. But there are also ways to deal with them. </p>
<h2>1. Uncertainty</h2>
<p>For many, this year has been full of uncertainty. In particular, the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820930665">coronavirus pandemic</a> has generated uncertainty about health, about best practices and about the future.</p>
<p>At the same time, Americans have faced <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/07/voters-anxiously-approach-an-unusual-election-and-its-potentially-uncertain-aftermath/">uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election</a>: first due to delayed results and now over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/politics/trump-power-transfer-2020-election.html?searchResultPosition=3">questions about a peaceful transition of power</a>. </p>
<p>Experiencing <a href="https://www.apa.org/topics/stress-uncertainty">uncertainty can stress most of us out</a>. People tend to prefer the planned and the predictable. Figures from 17th-century French philosopher <a href="http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/15537/1/Certainty%20and%20Explanation%20in%20Descartes%20HOPOS%20AcceptedFinal.pdf">René Descartes</a> to 20th-century Austrian philosopher <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/762159.On_Certainty">Ludwig Wittgenstein</a> have recognized the significance of having certainty in our lives. </p>
<p>With information so readily available, people may be checking news sites or social media in hopes of finding answers. But often, people are instead greeted with more reminders of uncertainty.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369880/original/file-20201117-13-19no6k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As Trump supporters denounce the 2020 election results, feelings of uncertainty can come up for others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/thousands-of-trump-supporters-gathered-in-washington-d-c-on-news-photo/1229635195?adppopup=true">Karla Ann Cote/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Polarization</h2>
<p>Political polarization <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/robert-barrett-phd/the-stress-from-political-polarization-is-killing-us-slowly_a_23350469/">is stressing many Americans out</a>. </p>
<p>As political scientist <a href="https://gvpt.umd.edu/facultyprofile/mason/lilliana">Lilliana Mason</a> notes in her book, “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">Uncivil Disagreement: How Politics Became Our Identity</a>,” Americans have been increasingly dividing politically “into two partisan teams.” </p>
<p>Many writers have discussed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-political-polarization-weakens-democracy-can-the-us-avoid-that-fate-105540">negative effects of polarization</a>, such as how it can damage democracy. But discussions about the harms of polarization often overlook the toll polarization takes on our ability to gain and share knowledge. </p>
<p>That can happen in at least two ways. </p>
<p>First, as philosopher <a href="https://www.kevinvallier.com/">Kevin Vallier</a> has argued, there is a “<a href="https://www.kevinvallier.com/reconciled/low-trust-exacerbates-polarization/">causal feedback loop</a>” between polarization and distrust. In other words, polarization and distrust fuel one another. Such a cycle can leave people feeling <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/284357/polarization-may-undermine-community-bonds-trust-others.aspx">unsure whom to trust or what to believe</a>.</p>
<p>Second, polarization can lead to <a href="https://time.com/5907318/polarization-2020-election/">competing narratives</a> because in a deeply polarized society, as studies show, we can <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/for/16/1/article-p47.xml">lose common ground</a> and tend to have less agreement.</p>
<p>For those inclined to take the views of others seriously, this can create additional cognitive work. And when the issues are heated or sensitive, this can create additional <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190926073348.htm">stress and emotional burdens</a>, such as sadness over damaged friendships or anger over partisan rhetoric. </p>
<h2>3. Misinformation</h2>
<p>Viral misinformation is everywhere. This includes <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/get-involved/study-groups/propaganda-today%E2%80%99s-american-politics">political propaganda in the United States</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/books/review/peter-pomerantsev-this-is-not-propaganda.html">around the world</a>.</p>
<p>People are also inundated with advertising and misleading messaging from private corporations, what philosophers <a href="http://cailinoconnor.com/">Cailin O’Connor</a> and <a href="http://jamesowenweatherall.com/">James Owen Weatherall</a> have called “<a href="https://heterodoxacademy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/062_Cailin_oConnor_How_False_Beliefs_Spread.pdf">industrial propaganda</a>.” And in 2020, the public is also dealing with <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01452-z">misinformation about COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>As chess grandmaster <a href="https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/808750564284702720?lang=en">Garry Kasparov put it</a>: “The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” </p>
<p>Misinformation is often exhausting by design. For example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-plandemic-and-the-seven-traits-of-conspiratorial-thinking-138483">a video that went viral,</a> “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/05/08/why-its-important-to-push-back-on-plandemic-and-how-to-do-it/?sh=3e430c9e5fa3">Plandemic</a>,” featured a large number of false claims about COVID-19 in rapid succession. This flooding of misinformation in rapid succession, a tactic known as a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/9/26/13036258/donald-trump-debate-win-lies-preparation">Gish gallop</a>, makes it challenging and time-consuming for fact checkers to refute the many falsehoods following one after another. </p>
<h2>What to do?</h2>
<p>With all this uncertainty, polarization and misinformation, feeling tired is understandable. But there are things one can do. </p>
<p>The American Psychological Association suggests <a href="https://www.apa.org/topics/stress-uncertainty">coping with uncertainty</a> through activities like limiting news consumption and focusing on things in one’s control. Another option is to work on becoming more <a href="https://pemachodronfoundation.org/product/comfortable-with-uncertainty-book/">comfortable with uncertainty</a> through practices such as meditation and the cultivation of mindfulness. </p>
<p>To deal with polarization, consider communicating with the goal of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/phpr.12624">creating empathetic understanding</a> rather than “winning.” Philosopher <a href="http://mjhannon.com/">Michael Hannon</a> describes empathetic understanding as “the ability to take up another person’s perspective.” </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>As for limiting the spread of misinformation: Share only those news stories that you’ve read and verified. And you can prioritize outlets that meet high ethical <a href="https://www.spj.org/ethicscode.asp">journalistic</a> or <a href="https://www.poynter.org/ifcn-fact-checkers-code-of-principles/">fact-checking standards</a>.</p>
<p>These solutions are limited and imperfect, but that’s all right. Part of resisting epistemic exhaustion is learning to live with the limited and imperfect. No one has time to vet all the headlines, correct all the misinformation or gain all the relevant knowledge. To deny this is to set oneself up for exhaustion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Satta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A philosopher writes about why many of us are feeling tired with the constant onslaught of information coming at us.Mark Satta, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449002020-10-05T12:11:47Z2020-10-05T12:11:47ZSome bees are born curious while others are more single-minded – new research hints at how the hive picks which flowers to feast on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360072/original/file-20200925-22-1oti0ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C17%2C3860%2C2567&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Working together to figure out where to eat.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/honey-beehive-royalty-free-image/183008733">Cheyenne Montgomery/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you try to pick a restaurant with a group of friends, how do you decide? Your curious friend wants to try the new place, while your focused friend wants to go to the old faithful. One friend is insistent, while the other is more quiet. Ultimately, the focused vocal friend convinces the group by saying, “I am telling you, this is the best place. It’s a sure thing – we gotta go!”</p>
<p>Just like people, honey bees vary in how they seek out food and communicate where to go. As a biologist, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lGDvqJ8AAAAJ&hl=en">I study collective behavior</a>, especially how groups make decisions. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920554117">My colleagues and I have discovered</a> some individual bees are seemingly born with a predetermined foraging style – they can be either focused foragers or curious foragers. Having different approaches to collecting food turns out to be advantageous for large colonies that rely on a changing food landscape. </p>
<h2>Explorers and exploiters</h2>
<p>As animals collect food, they must balance exploring for new food with exploiting already known food sources. Individual animals have to do one or the other, switching between exploring or exploiting. In collectives, like honey bee colonies, foragers can split the work and do both at the same time. </p>
<p>As honey bees forage for nectar and pollen, they learn a lot of information about the flowers they visit, such as their <a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy1.lib.asu.edu/10.1023/A:1015232608858">smells</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1536017">colors</a> and <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674418776">locations</a>. Some bees become extremely focused on information associated with food, ignoring any new information – similar to selective attention in humans. Conversely, other bees exhibit a learning behavior marked by curiosity. They are interested in learning about new food sources, not just familiar ones.</p>
<h2>True to type</h2>
<p>My colleagues and I became interested in how bee colonies manage and act on these two types of information. To answer this question, we first figured out how to breed curious bees and focused bees. </p>
<p>We tested female queens and male drones to see if they were curious or focused, and then used artificial insemination to breed a curious queen with a curious drone, and a focused queen with a focused drone. Typically queens mate with 12 to 15 different drones and create genetically diverse workers, so using a single drone helped keep workers genetically uniform.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bowl filled with several hundred bees, all marked with a blue dot on the thorax." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360070/original/file-20200925-20-j2iqtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One-day-old curious bees marked blue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sebastian Scofield</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once we had populations of genetically curious and focused bees, we had to verify they would not be influenced by their social environment. We did this by placing bees in colonies of either their own learning type or one with an assortment of learning types. (We kept track of who was who by marking them with paint on their thorax as soon as they were born.) Sure enough, regardless of the social group the bees experienced, they exhibited the same learning behavior we observed in their parents. </p>
<h2>Familiar food versus novel food</h2>
<p>Next, we created colonies of all focused bees, all curious bees or a 50/50 mix of focused and curious bees – then watched how they foraged. </p>
<p>We gave them a choice between two food locations: a familiar, reliable food location that stayed in the same spot for four days or a new food location that changed odor, color and location every day. Both locations contained the same quality and quantity of food. We marked bees on their abdomens as they visited the feeders so we knew which ones they had been to and which ones they were revisiting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five bees perched on the edge of a red feeder, sipping nectar." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360069/original/file-20200925-20-kytbgj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers marked the bees visiting this feeder with yellow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chelsea Cook</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We discovered the focused colony quickly found the familiar food location and exploited that eatery all week, rarely visiting the novel food option.</p>
<p>The curious colony, as expected, visited the novel and the familiar food locations equally, showing no preference. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the 50/50 mixed colony ended up acting more like the focused colony, using the familiar feeder and paying little attention to the novel feeders. We observed the curious bees in the mixed colony shifted their selected behavior by visiting the familiar feeder more than the novel one. Why?</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1222/Waggle.gif?1599767052/">
<figcaption><span class="caption">The bee in the middle communicates the location of food using the waggle dance.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dancing up a storm</h2>
<p>When honey bees find a good source of food, they use the <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674418776">waggle dance to direct their nest mates</a>. This dance communicates the distance to and direction of a nutritious meal, as well as its perceived quality. When we looked at waggle dance behavior in the 50/50 colony, we saw the focused bees were dancing more intensely – performing 0.59 turns per second, significantly faster than the curious bees’ 0.52 turns per second. Just like your vocal, excited friend, the focused bees attracted more followers, so more bees were recruited to the familiar, reliable feeder.</p>
<p>Because curious bees are interested in everything, including new information about possible food locations, they are perfect listeners and are easily convinced to visit the chosen feeder of their enthusiastic nest mates. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Our future work will investigate how these foraging dynamics work in a changing food landscape – one where food runs out. If a source is depleted, will the focused bees turn their attention to the curious bees, who already know where other foraging locations are? </p>
<p>This research suggests successful societies make better decisions when members, by virtue of their innate learning styles, collect and communicate a diversity of information – whether they are bees looking for nectar or friends trying to decide on a restaurant. Diversity of learning behavior in individuals may help social groups adapt to shifting global environments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chelsea Cook receives funding from National Institutes of Health, the US Department of Agriculture, and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>New research suggests individual bees are born with one of two learning styles – either curious or focused. Their genetic tendency has implications for how the hive works together.Chelsea Cook, Assistant Professor in Biology, Marquette UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1400262020-09-08T20:10:42Z2020-09-08T20:10:42ZResearch reveals shocking detail on how Australia’s environmental scientists are being silenced<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356228/original/file-20200903-24-y2gz1h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8000%2C4491&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ecologists and conservation experts in government, industry and universities are routinely constrained in communicating scientific evidence on threatened species, mining, logging and other threats to the environment, our new research has found.</p>
<p>Our study, <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12757">just published</a>, shows how important scientific information about environmental threats often does not reach the public or decision-makers, including government ministers. </p>
<p>In some cases, scientists self-censor information for fear of damaging their careers, losing funding or being misrepresented in the media. In others, senior managers or ministers’ officers prevented researchers from speaking truthfully on scientific matters.</p>
<p>This information blackout, termed “science suppression”, can hide environmentally damaging practices and policies from public scrutiny. The practice is detrimental to both nature and democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A scientist kneels by a stream" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348422/original/file-20200720-64504-933ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When scientists are free to communicate their knowledge, the public is kept informed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Queensland/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Code of silence</h2>
<p>Our online survey ran from October 25, 2018, to February 11, 2019. Through advertising and other means, we targeted Australian ecologists, conservation scientists, conservation policy makers and environmental consultants. This included academics, government employees and scientists working for industry such as consultants and non-government organisations. </p>
<p>Some 220 people responded to the survey, comprising:</p>
<ul>
<li>88 working in universities</li>
<li>79 working in local, state or federal government</li>
<li>47 working in industry, such as environmental consulting and environmental NGOs</li>
<li>6 who could not be classified. </li>
</ul>
<p>In a series of multiple-choice and open-ended questions, we asked respondents about the prevalence and consequences of suppressing science communication.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/let-there-be-no-doubt-blame-for-our-failing-environment-laws-lies-squarely-at-the-feet-of-government-141482">Let there be no doubt: blame for our failing environment laws lies squarely at the feet of government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>About half (52%) of government respondents, 38% from industry and 9% from universities had been prohibited from communicating scientific information.</p>
<p>Communications via traditional (40%) and social (25%) media were most commonly prohibited across all workplaces. There were also instances of internal communications (15%), conference presentations (11%) and journal papers (5%) being prohibited.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d5eyym6nrHE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video explaining the research findings.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Ministers are not receiving full information’</h2>
<p>Some 75% of respondents reported having refrained from making a contribution to public discussion when given the opportunity – most commonly in traditional media or social media. A small number of respondents self-censored conference presentations (9%) and peer-reviewed papers (7%).</p>
<p>Factors constraining commentary from government respondents included senior management (82%), workplace policy (72%), a minister’s office (63%) and middle management (62%).</p>
<p>Fear of barriers to advancement (49%) and concern about media misrepresentation (49%) also discouraged public communication by government respondents. </p>
<p>Almost 60% of government respondents and 36% of industry respondents reported unduly modified internal communications.</p>
<p>One government respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Due to ‘risk management’ in the public sector […] ministers are not receiving full information and advice and/or this is being ‘massaged’ by advisors (sic).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>University respondents, more than other workplaces, avoided public commentary out of fear of how they would be represented by the media (76%), fear of being drawn beyond their expertise (73%), stress (55%), fear that funding might be affected (53%) and uncertainty about their area of expertise (52%).</p>
<p>One university respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I proposed an article in The Conversation about the impacts of mining […] The uni I worked at didn’t like the idea as they received funding from (the mining company).</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="vehicle operating at a coal mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347879/original/file-20200716-15-41z7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A university researcher was dissuaded from writing an article for The Conversation on mining.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Critical conservation issues suppressed</h2>
<p>Information suppression was most common on the issue of threatened species. Around half of industry and government respondents, and 28% of university respondents, said their commentary on the topic was constrained. </p>
<p>Government respondents also reported being constrained in commenting on logging and climate change. </p>
<p>One government respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are often forbidden (from) talking about the true impacts of, say, a threatening process […] especially if the government is doing little to mitigate the threat […] In this way the public often remains ‘in the dark’ about the true state and trends of many species.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>University respondents were most commonly constrained in talking about feral animals. A university respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>By being blocked from reporting on the dodgy dealings of my university with regards to my research and its outcomes I feel like I’m not doing my job properly. The university actively avoids any mention of my study species or project due to vested financial interests in some key habitat.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Industry respondents, more than those from other sectors, were constrained in commenting on the impacts of mining, urban development and native vegetation clearing. One industry respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A project […] clearly had unacceptable impacts on a critically endangered species […] the approvals process ignored these impacts […] Not being able to speak out meant that no one in the process was willing or able to advocate for conservation or make the public aware of the problem.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a dead koala in front of trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347882/original/file-20200716-27-1rcvnal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Information suppression on threatened species was common.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The system is broken</h2>
<p>Of those respondents who had communicated information publicly, 42% had been harassed or criticised for doing so. Of those, 83% believed the harassers were motivated by political or economic interests. </p>
<p>Some 77 respondents answered a question on whether they had suffered personal consequences as a result of suppressing information. Of these, 18% said they had suffered mental health effects. And 21% reported increased job insecurity, damage to their career, job loss, or had left the field.</p>
<p>One respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I declared the (action) unsafe to proceed. I was overruled and properties and assets were impacted. I was told to be silent or never have a job again.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As a consultant working for companies that damage the environment, you have to believe you are having a positive impact, but after years of observing how broken the system is, not being legally able to speak out becomes harder to deal with.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a scientist tests water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348414/original/file-20200720-29-1awyiwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists want to have a positive impact on environmental outcomes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elaine Thompson/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Change is needed</h2>
<p>We acknowledge that we receive grants involving contracts that restrict our academic freedom. And some of us self-censor to avoid risks to grants from government, resulting in personal moral conflict and a less informed public. When starting this research project, one of our colleagues declined to contribute for fear of losing funding and risking employment.</p>
<p>But Australia faces many complex and demanding environmental problems. It’s essential that scientists are free to communicate their knowledge on these issues. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conservation-scientists-are-grieving-after-the-bushfires-but-we-must-not-give-up-130195">Conservation scientists are grieving after the bushfires -- but we must not give up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Public servant codes of conduct should be revised to allow government scientists to speak freely about their research in both a public and private capacity. And government scientists and other staff should report to new, <a href="https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f97-051?journalCode=cjfas#.XuKq4EUzY2w">independent</a> state and federal environment authorities, to <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0029/518249/Full-Report-National-Integrity-Options-August-2018.pdf">minimise</a> political and industry interference.</p>
<p>A free flow of information ensures government policy is backed by the best science. Conservation dollars would be more wisely invested, costly mistakes avoided and interventions more effectively targeted.</p>
<p>And importantly, it would help ensure the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/542165b">public is properly informed</a> – a fundamental tenet of a flourishing democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140026/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Driscoll receives funding from the Herman Slade Foundation, OEH NSW Environmental Grants program, DELWP Vic, National Geographic, Rufford Foundation, WWF and Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. He is Past President of the Ecological Society of Australia, Director of the Centre of Integrative Ecology and Director of the TechnEcology Research Network at Deakin University. Don is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and Society for Conservation Biology. The research reported here was undertaken for the Ecological Society of Australia</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Australia and Pacific Science Foundation, Australian Geographic, Parks Victoria, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Euan Ritchie is a Director (Media Working Group) of the Ecological Society of Australia, and a member of the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noel Preece is an independent environmental consultant, Adj. Associate Professor at James Cook University, University Fellow at Charles Darwin University and Councillor on the Ecosystem Science Council. Noel is active on several Working Groups of the Ecological Society of Australia. He is also undertaking research on forest restoration and on biodiversity declines in northern Australia, and works with Indigenous land management groups in northern Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Pressey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>About half of environmental scientists working for government had been prohibited from communicating scientific information.Don Driscoll, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, Deakin UniversityBob Pressey, Professor and Program Leader, Conservation Planning, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityEuan Ritchie, Associate Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityNoel D. Preece, Adjunct Asssociate Professor, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1384892020-05-18T01:18:52Z2020-05-18T01:18:52ZChildren on coronavirus: ‘Don’t just tell us to wash our hands and say it will be okay’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334729/original/file-20200513-156656-1ia03jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C43%2C7265%2C4825&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Children’s lives in the UK have been changed by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/supporting-children-through-the-coronavirus-pandemic-lessons-from-the-autistic-community-134567">COVID-19 pandemic</a>. Many are no longer attending school, seeing grandparents or friends and are being asked to stay at home with their families to save lives. </p>
<p>Children are learning, connecting and doing PE remotely, drawing rainbows and clapping every week for key workers. But like the adults in their lives, many will <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2352-4642%2820%2930109-7">be experiencing uncertainty, confusion</a> and have questions about COVID-19 and the world they are now living in.</p>
<p>There has been an overwhelming amount of health information and misinformation about COVID-19 – which has been described as an “<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32302535/">infodemic</a>”. Many resources have been developed specifically for children, to provide information and to help them cope with their worries and concerns. There are <a href="https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/cco-childrens-guide-to-coronavirus.pdf">leaflets</a>, <a href="https://www.firstnews.co.uk/">children’s newspapers</a>, TV programmes like <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround">Newsround</a>, <a href="https://nosycrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Coronavirus-A-Book-for-Children.pdf">short stories</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=oMHacLHchI0&feature=emb_logo">video clips</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-52406475/coronavirus-when-will-pandemic-end-and-other-questions-from-kids">Q&A sessions</a>. </p>
<p>These colourful and child-friendly resources tell children about the virus and how to stay safe through social distancing and washing their hands. The resources include tips on how to cope and activities to keep busy during lockdown. But most of these resources have been developed by adults and may not address children’s questions and concerns.</p>
<h2>Questions and answers</h2>
<p>In our study, with colleagues Bernie Carter, Lucy Blake and Jennifer Kirton, <a href="https://www.edgehill.ac.uk/health/research/children-and-covid19/">we asked</a> children aged seven to 12 years old how they accessed information about COVID-19 and their understanding of the virus and the need for lockdown. </p>
<p>They told us that their parents were their main source of information and that they want to know more than “it will be okay” or that they need to “wash their hands”. They want answers to questions such as “why don’t children get poorly?”, “how many people are dying each day?” and “how will we know that it’s really safe to go out when lockdown ends?”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334737/original/file-20200513-156679-1nppd33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Help children understand the impact of COVID-19 on their lives through open and honest conversations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-father-daughter-relaxing-bed-look-411239116">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also asked parents how they accessed information about COVID-19 and how they shared this information with their children. We found that many parents tried to shield their children from “the worst of it”, and limit their child’s access to the constant stream of COVID-19 information. Most children however, are aware the world is in crisis and people are dying from the virus – as one child we spoke to explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I don’t know what is happening, because people play it down and tell me it can’t kill people, but people are dying every day.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Withholding information</h2>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1367493519870654">Our previous research</a> shows that parents can find it hard to judge what information is “right” to share with their children about difficult topics. This can lead to parents withholding information to try and protect their child from becoming upset. </p>
<p>In our study, we’ve found that many parents are making similar decisions in relation to sharing COVID-19 information with their children – as one mother of a seven-year-old explained: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[We share] whatever info won’t cause too much anxiety and we downplay it. [We] mainly just discuss how we can protect ourselves. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Typically parents talked about reassuring their child that “everything will be completely fine”. But we know from previous research that <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cch.12692">empty reassurances</a> without appropriate facts and information can result in children being left to “<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15669932/">fill in the blanks</a>”, using their imagination and snippets of information gleaned through different channels. </p>
<p>Indeed, being told “don’t worry” can be unhelpful when a person is trying to understand what’s going on and find ways to cope with a situation. And this can actually increase <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20227831/">children’s anxiety and feelings of uncertainty</a>.</p>
<h2>What to do instead</h2>
<p>Children are an essential part of the national effort to manage this pandemic. They have a right to be provided with information that is of <a href="https://www.unicef.org/sop/convention-rights-child-child-friendly-version">importance to their wellbeing</a>. This right is not being addressed by simply telling children to wash their hands, stay in and not worry. Children should be able to ask questions and explore what is going on “out there” with adults they trust.</p>
<p>Colourful child-friendly resources are useful to begin conversations, but are not an end point. Our findings show that children have questions about COVID-19 that are not being addressed. These questions will differ from child to child. </p>
<p>As adults, we should acknowledge that we do not know “all the answers”, and be confident enough to open up conversations with children. These conversations should happen at multiple levels – and be aided by campaigns where children’s questions and concerns can be acknowledged and addressed nationally. Schools and teachers should also be involved to help support learning opportunities and build understanding. Most important though are the conversations children will have with their parents and carers. </p>
<p>A good starting point for these conversations is to ask your children, “what do you want to know?” and “what questions do you have?” Through doing this, not only can children be empowered to identify their information needs and concerns, but it also means that adults do not need to simply rely on providing empty reassurance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Bray has received funding from Innovate UK for previous work examining children's information needs in relation to hospital procedures. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Saron and Jo Protheroe do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Parents may try to shield children from information about COVID-19, but their important questions need answering.Lucy Bray, Professor in Child Health Literacy, Edge Hill UniversityHolly Saron, Research Fellow, Edge Hill University, Edge Hill UniversityJo Protheroe, Professor of General Practice, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1279292019-12-16T13:37:32Z2019-12-16T13:37:32ZWhy Kenya is failing to integrate technology into secondary schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304910/original/file-20191203-67017-20ni4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many Kenyan students have had limited access to computers</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stars Foundation/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenya’s education ministry has <a href="http://vision2030.go.ke">proposed that</a> information and communication technology (ICT) – such as computers, laptops, tablets and cameras – be used to help teach certain subjects and improve how students learn. The technology can, for instance, stimulate creativity, help children understand complex topics and give them tools to learn more independently. </p>
<p>In 2011 the ministry created an integration team to coordinate and harmonise all initiatives. The team worked with a Flemish and Belgian non-profit organisation – <a href="https://www.vvob.org/nl">VVOB (education for development)</a> – dedicated to improving the quality of education in developing countries. </p>
<p>Part of the plan included a professional development programme which was carried out in four pilot schools and lasted two years. It was designed to help teachers learn how to integrate technology into the curriculum. Because teachers are in control of the classroom settings, it was crucial that they were part of this collaborative experience.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1475939X.2015.1091786?journalCode=rtpe20">evaluated</a> the programme. Our main focus was on how many teachers continued to use technology in their lessons after the programme ended in the four government-funded secondary schools. None of these schools had previous experience with ICT. </p>
<p>We found that teachers faced a wide range of challenges when it came to
integrating technology into their classrooms. These included a lack of electricity, infrastructure and connectivity. Moreover, the training needed was complex and the resources required to deliver it were scarce. </p>
<p>At the start of the intervention, teachers didn’t know how to integrate technology in their classes. They also didn’t have enough time to develop new lessons and had too many pupils to teach. </p>
<p>Our findings support the view that integrating technology into schools does’t automatically follow a simple placement of hardware and software. It involves understanding the dynamic relationship between technology, how it’s used in the classroom and the content of the curriculum. </p>
<p>Our research also suggests that the professional development of teachers is a long term project. It needs constant reiterations of learning about emerging technologies and how to use them. This must be in balance with the national ICT initiative but also, more importantly, be sensitive to the different school cultures and communities. </p>
<h2>Integration is key</h2>
<p>In the schools we evaluated, technology training sessions were developed under a professional development programme. These were designed to encourage teachers to identify challenging areas in their teaching and then brainstorm about how technology could offer an advantage in the classroom. For instance, how technology could help them overcome the challenge of scarce or outdated textbooks. Trainers in the workshop would then train the teachers in teacher design teams on the skills they would need to accomplish the task. </p>
<p>We conducted teacher questionnaires and focus group discussions with a total of 64 teachers. The aim was to see how many teachers used technology in their classrooms two years after the programme had ended. Based on the results it appeared that some teachers were just beginning to use technology to present information. But most were using it to support their educational practice outside the classroom. For example, they used technology to prepare lessons or to email with colleagues. </p>
<p>This was due to a number of challenges, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Schools kept hardware, like computers, in labs. This physical separation of technology and the actual classroom meant that it was harder to integrate technology in learning activities. But labs were used because of poor security, power breakdowns and a lack of space in the classrooms.</p></li>
<li><p>At the beginning of the project, the schools didn’t have clear goals on how to support technology integration after the professional development programme. This could be because a large number of people – from the principal to integration teams – were involved in decision-making processes. Also, participants only felt more clear about the role of ICT in education towards the end of the programme.</p></li>
<li><p>The teachers also needed additional support from administrative school leaders, like the headteachers. These leaders would have the authority to demand the installation of electricity and connectivity in each class. But in one school, the teachers said that they didn’t feel they had support from the leadership, or good direction. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>We also found positive outcomes. </p>
<p>For example, there was collaboration at the school as well as the regional level. In some schools, the teachers worked with others in different schools and passed on ideas. In turn, this contributed to the promotion of professionalism. </p>
<p>We concluded that the gains of the programme could only be sustained if schools and teachers felt a sense of ownership and were part of a process of evaluation so that they could understand what they’d learnt, and what goals they wanted to set. This stresses the importance of professional development as a permanent process, aimed at extending and updating the professional knowledge of teachers in the context of their work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Tondeur is affiliated with Vrije Universiteit Brussel. </span></em></p>Integrating technology into schools involves understanding the dynamic relationship between technology, how it’s used in the classroom and the content of the curriculum.Jo Tondeur, Assistant Professor, Vrije Universiteit BrusselLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1221022019-09-22T13:49:21Z2019-09-22T13:49:21ZCommunicating science online increases interest, engagement and access to funds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291308/original/file-20190906-175696-1f1wlnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3200&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The internet has changed the way scientists communicate with their funders, the public and each other.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and other social media platforms are sometimes dismissed as distractions for students. But they’re also avenues for scientific communication. </p>
<p>Scientists are active on social media, discussing everything from methods to the latest developments in research. They even use social media to raise funds. Scientists sometimes provide mentoring online and have conversations with more junior researchers about their careers. Social networking tools also provide a space to build both social and professional networks, allowing scientists to develop new collaborations.</p>
<p>Dismissing online science communication as trivial to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41556-018-0253-6">intellectual work of scientists</a> would be a mistaken position.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1060910618805383169"}"></div></p>
<h2>Crowdfunding research</h2>
<p>Crowdfunding platforms, such as <a href="https://experiment.com/">Experiment</a>, allow everyday people to fund scientific research and include features similar to those found in traditional grant proposals. Crowdfunding proposals, however, also include features of social media, such as biographies explaining not only credentials, but personal interests and passions.</p>
<p>As public funding becomes increasingly <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/problem-sugar-daddy-science/598231/">difficult to secure</a>, some scientists are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2675133.2675188">looking to alternative venues</a>. However, crowdfunding also illustrates how problems arise online, too. </p>
<p>Questions about ensuring accountability, managing ethics and regulating funds need to be considered. Further, although crowdfunding can be useful for those starting out, the levels of funding cannot compete well with publicly funded research support. </p>
<p>Crowdfunding may also rely on already powerful social networks, which is something that is not available to everyone, and can further reinforce barriers. Acknowledging how access to platforms can be reliant upon one’s social and professional connections rather than their science is important. </p>
<p>Crowdfunding isn’t the only funding mechanism that faces such questions. Public funding and private funding is subject to questions of accountability, ethics and regulations. </p>
<h2>Public forum</h2>
<p>Online science communication is not only for popularizing science, but an important space to address serious problems within science, too. </p>
<p>High-profile <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/jeffrey-epstein-science-donations-apologies-statements">scientists and science popularizers</a> have been revealed to have been supported by financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Researchers at the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-an-elite-university-research-center-concealed-its-relationship-with-jeffrey-epstein">Massachussetts Institute of Technology</a> and Harvard University received funding from Epstein. Others benefited from his <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/154826/jeffrey-epsteins-intellectual-enabler">connections to publishers</a> for book deals. </p>
<p>Details continue to emerge, but it’s clear at this point scientists and science communicators have <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/jeffrey-epstein-and-the-power-of-networks">benefited from private funding implicated in the exploitation of children</a>. At the moment, <a href="https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1170211003310596097">scientists</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/xeni/status/1170352857952002048">journalists</a> are calling out this unethical behaviour, notably on Twitter, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/27/jeffrey-epstein-science-mit-brockman">calling for changes</a> to how powerful networks in science operate.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1170407413452656640"}"></div></p>
<p>Because the ways we communicate about science tell us about the broader culture of science, expectations for scientific conduct, ethics and norms, it’s important to examine these new forms of communication. </p>
<h2>Communicating science online</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291306/original/file-20190906-175686-1gor69c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The book examines how the internet is changing how science is communicated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ohiostatepress.org/books/titles/9780814213988.html">Cover from the Ohio State University Press.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In my new book, <a href="https://ohiostatepress.org/books/titles/9780814213988.html"><em>Science Communication Online</em></a>, I explore how online science communication is changing how we communicate about science (<a href="https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/handle/1811/87159/MEHLENBACHER_final_KU_190pp.pdf">the book is available for free download</a>). I also examine what changes to science communication online tell us about broader changes to where science fits in the public life.</p>
<p>Examining different <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00335638409383686">genres of communication</a> allows us to understand how different forms of science communication accomplish different goals. For example, the <a href="https://wac.colostate.edu/books/landmarks/bazerman-shaping/">scientific research articles</a> are structured and used quite differently from a newspaper article reporting the results of a study. When looking at online forms of communication, a number of new genres have emerged, allowing scientists and science communicators to achieve a wider range of communication goals. These can incorporate characteristics of a research article combined with accessible language or visuals to reach a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0741088386003003001">broader audience</a>.</p>
<p>Blogs are one example of this. Some communicate more <a href="https://blogs.plos.org/synbio/2019/09/02/building-a-co2-concentrating-mechanism/">technical information</a>, others discuss <a href="https://blogs.plos.org/synbio/2019/08/01/reflections-on-seed-2019/">events</a> and still others discuss matters pertinent to <a href="https://blogs.plos.org/synbio/2019/08/05/paradigm-shifts-in-life-science-education-opportunities-and-challenges-in-an-era-of-synthetic-biology/">scientist training</a>. Other blog posts help explain <a href="https://blogs.plos.org/neuro/2018/09/29/neuroscience-at-scale-synaptomics-tries-to-make-sense-of-the-brain-at-a-stupefying-scale-by-samuel-rose/">complex science to the public</a>.</p>
<h2>A future for online science communication</h2>
<p>Science communication online is dynamic. Understanding the new ways we can communicate about science requires immersion in the conversation.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/citizen-science-can-help-solve-our-data-crisis-112669">Citizen science can help solve our data crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That conversation isn’t just for scientists. Online spaces, too, can serve broader purposes. Consider the news aggregate website Reddit’s “Ask Me Anything” series, where scientists regularly answer questions about their work. University of Waterloo doctoral researcher <a href="http://devonmoriarty.com/">Devon Moriarty</a>, a colleague of mine in rhetorical studies, has found that in such spaces, people have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02691728.2019.1637964">sophisticated criteria for assessing a scientific expert’s credibility</a>. Online science communication allows for more of dialogue between scientists and those interested in their work.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291309/original/file-20190906-175673-wyx8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To communicate their research and findings to a wide audience, scientists need to be aware of the ways in which people seek and access information online.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Science enthusiasts can look to online spaces to learn more about scientific subjects, the process of science, vetting scientific claims, learning about the scientists themselves, and even <a href="https://scistarter.org/">participating in scientific research</a>.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashley Rose Mehlenbacher receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science’s Early Research Award program and the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant program. She is also the President of the Association for the Rhetoric of Science, Technology, and Medicine. Views expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>Science communication online is important to the intellectual work of scientists.Ashley Rose Mehlenbacher, Assistant Professor, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1218562019-09-04T17:26:51Z2019-09-04T17:26:51ZHere’s what happens when political bubbles collide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288968/original/file-20190821-170914-25tktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are you trapped in an echo chamber?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/people-hold-blank-speech-bubble-copy-642857470">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social media has transformed how people talk to each other. But social media platforms are not shaping up to be the utopian spaces for human connection <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/22/15855202/facebook-ceo-mark-zuckerberg-new-mission-statement-groups">their founders hoped</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, the internet has introduced phenomena that can influence national elections and maybe even <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/11/04/do-social-media-threaten-democracy">threaten democracy</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.voxpol.eu/follow-the-echo-chamber-measuring-political-attitude-change-and-media-effects-on-twitter/">Echo chambers</a> or “bubbles” – in which people interact mainly with others who share their political views – arise from the way communities <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/07/24/486941582/the-reason-your-feed-became-an-echo-chamber-and-what-to-do-about-it">organize themselves online</a>. </p>
<p>When the organization of a social network affects political discussion on a large scale, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/11/08/500686320/did-social-media-ruin-election-2016">the consequences can be enormous</a>. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1507-6">study</a> released on September 4, we show that what happens at the connection points, where bubbles collide, can significantly sway political decisions toward one party or another. We call this phenomenon “information gerrymandering.”</p>
<h2>When bubbles collide</h2>
<p>It’s problematic when people derive all their information from inside their bubble. Even if it’s factual, the information people get from their bubble may be selected to confirm their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/07/14/confirmed-echo-chambers-exist-on-social-media-but-what-can-we-do-about-them/">prior assumptions</a>. In contemporary U.S. politics, this is a likely contributor to <a href="https://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Eseanjwestwood/papers/ARPS.pdf">increasing political polarization</a> in the electorate.</p>
<p>But that’s not the whole story. Most people have a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180416-the-myth-of-the-online-echo-chamber">foot outside</a> of their political bubbles. They read news from a range of sources and talk to some friends with different opinions and experiences than their own. </p>
<p>The balance between the influence coming from inside and outside a bubble matters a lot for shaping a person’s views. This balance is different for different people: One person who leans Democrat may hear political arguments overwhelmingly from other Democrats, while another may hear equally from Democrats and Republicans. </p>
<p>From the perspective of the parties who are trying to win the public debate, what’s important is how their influence is spread out across the social network.</p>
<p>What we show in our study, mathematically and empirically, is that a party’s influence on a social network <a href="http://www.redistrictinggame.org/learnaboutmission2.php">can be broken up</a>, in a way analogous to electoral gerrymandering of congressional districts. </p>
<p>In our study, information gerrymandering was intentional: We structured our social networks to produce bias. In the real world, things are more complicated, of course. Social network structures grow out of individual behavior, and that behavior is influenced by the social media platforms themselves.</p>
<p>Information gerrymandering gives one party an advantage in persuading voters. The party that has an advantage, we show, is the party that does not split up its influence and leave its members open to persuasion from the other side.</p>
<p>This isn’t just a thought experiment – it’s something we have measured and tested in our research.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People tend to talk to others who share their political views. But most people have some friends who disagree with them politically, and their echo chambers, or bubbles, collide in lots of places. Information gerrymandering occurs when there is asymmetry in how bubbles collide. In the example shown at the bottom, the blue party has split its influence, so that some members are open to persuasion from the red party.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Experimenting with bubbles</h2>
<p><a href="http://davidrand-cooperation.com/lab">Our colleagues at MIT</a> asked over 2,500 people, recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk, to play a simple voting game in groups of 24.</p>
<p>The players were assigned to one of two parties. The game was structured to reward party loyalty, but also to reward compromise: If your party won with 60% of the votes or more, each party member received US$2. If your party compromised to help the other party reach 60% of the votes, each member received 50 cents. If no party won, the game was deadlocked and no one was paid. </p>
<p>We structured the game this way to mimic the real world tensions between voters’ intrinsic party preferences and the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-things-done-washington.aspx">desire to compromise</a> on important issues.</p>
<p>In our game, each player updated their voting intentions over time, in response to information about other people’s voting intentions, which they received through their miniature social network. The players saw, in real time, how many of their connections intended to vote for their party. We placed players in different positions on the network, and we arranged their social networks to produce different types of colliding bubbles. </p>
<p>The experimental games and networks were superficially fair. Parties had the same number of members, and each person had the same amount of influence on other people. Still, we were able to build networks that gave one party a huge advantage, so that they won close to 60% of the vote, on average. </p>
<p>To understand the effect of the social network on voters’ decisions, we counted up who is connected to whom, accounting for their party preferences. Using this measure, we were able to accurately predict both the direction of the bias arising from information gerrymandering and the proportion of the vote received by each party in our simple game.</p>
<h2>Bubbles in real life</h2>
<p>We also measured information gerrymandering in real-world social networks.</p>
<p>We looked at published data on people’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3019414">media consumption</a>, comprising 27,852 news items shared by 938 Twitter users in the weeks leading up to the 2016 presidential election, as well as <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM11/paper/viewFile/2847/3275">over 250,000 political tweets</a> from 18,470 individuals in the weeks leading up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections.</p>
<p>We also looked at the <a href="http://www.ramb.ethz.ch/CDstore/www2005-ws/workshop/wf10/AdamicGlanceBlogWWW.pdf">political blogosphere</a>, examining how 1,490 political blogs linked to one another in the two months preceding the 2004 U.S. presidential election.</p>
<p>We found that these social networks have bubble structures similar to those constructed for our experiments. </p>
<h2>How networks produce bias</h2>
<p>The effects that we saw in our experiments are similar to what happens when politicians gerrymander congressional districts. </p>
<p>A party can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/">draw congressional districts</a> that are superficially fair – each district is contained within a single border, and contains the same number of voters – but that actually lead to systematic bias, allowing one party to win more seats than the proportion of votes they receive. </p>
<p>Electoral gerrymandering is subtle. You often know it when you see it on a map, but a rule to determine when districts are gerrymandered is complicated to define, which was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/supreme-court-gerrymandering-dissent-elena-kagan">sticking point</a> in the recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/jun/27/supreme-court-gerrymandering-ruling-verdict-constutition-districting">U.S. Supreme Court case</a> on the issue. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electoral gerrymandering often leads to congressional districts with strange and elaborate shapes. In the case Illinois District 4, shown here as drawn in 2004, the shape resembles a pair of earmuffs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Illinois_District_4_2004.png">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a similar way, information gerrymandering leads to social networks that are superficially fair. Each party can have the same number of voters with the same amount of influence, but the network structure nonetheless gives an advantage to one party. </p>
<p>Counting up who is connected to whom allowed us to develop a measure we call the “influence gap.” This mathematical description of information gerrymandering predicted the voting outcomes in our experiments. We believe this measure is useful for understanding how real-world social networks are organized, and how their structure will bias decision making.</p>
<p>Debate about how social media platforms are organized, as well as the consequences for individual behavior and for democracy, will continue for years to come. But we propose that thinking in terms of network-level concepts like bubbles and the connections between bubbles can provide a better grasp on these problems. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander J Stewart receives funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua B. Plotkin receives funding from Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Army Research Office, and the David & Lucile Packard Foundation.</span></em></p>When the organization of a social network impacts political discussion on a large scale, the consequences can be enormous.Alexander J. Stewart, Assistant Professor of Mathematical Biology, University of HoustonJoshua B. Plotkin, Professor of Biology, University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1210172019-08-08T09:30:09Z2019-08-08T09:30:09ZKepler’s forgotten ideas about symmetry help explain spiral galaxies without the need for dark matter – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285739/original/file-20190725-136728-aaxtby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">M81 spiral galaxy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/JPL-Caltech/ESA/Harvard-Smithsonian CfA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 17th-century astronomer <a href="https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000020013">Johannes Kepler</a> was the first to muse about the structure of snowflakes. Why are they so symmetrical? How does one side know how long the opposite side has grown? Kepler thought it was all down to what we would now call a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morphogenetic_field">“morphogenic field”</a> – that things <em>want</em> to have the form they have. Science has since discounted this idea. But the question of why snowflakes and similar structures are so symmetrical is nevertheless not entirely understood.</p>
<p>Modern science shows just how fundamental the question is: look at all the spiral galaxies out there. They can be half a million light years across, but they still preserve their symmetry. How? In our <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46765-w">new study</a>, published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/srep/">Scientific Reports</a>, we present an explanation. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285911/original/file-20190726-43126-170umci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Real snowflake.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karen Schanely: https://www.clickinmoms.com/blog/take-macro-snowflakes-pictures/; public domain</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have shown that information and “entropy” – a measure of the disorder of a system – are linked together (“info-entropy”) in a way exactly analogous to electric and magnetic fields (“electromagnetism”). Electric currents produce magnetic fields, while changing magnetic fields produce electric currents. Information and entropy influence each other in the same way.</p>
<p>Entropy is a fundamental concept in physics. For example, because entropy can never decrease (disorder always increases) you can turn an egg into scrambled eggs but not the other way around. If you move information around you must also increase entropy – a phone call has <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2010/07/entropy-analysis-threatens-to-turn-efficient-computing-on-its-head/">an entropy cost</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287340/original/file-20190808-144888-x8ziyr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Light wave with electric (E) and magnetic (B) fields.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We showed that entropy and information can be treated as a field and that they are related to geometry. Think of the two strands of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA">DNA</a> double helix winding around each other. Light waves <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_radiation">have the same structure</a>, where the two strands are the electric and magnetic fields. We showed mathematically that the relationship between information and entropy can be visualised using just the same geometry.</p>
<p>We wanted to see if our theory could predict things in the real world, and decided to try and calculate how much energy you’d need to convert one form of DNA to another. DNA is after all a spiral and a form of information. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285875/original/file-20190726-43114-9fk0s3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two forms of DNA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Parker & Jeynes, Fig.1 of Scientific Reports 9|10779 (2019); Modified from Fig. 5 of Allemand et al. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95, 14152–14157 (1998)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was actually done in extraordinarily precise <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01810">measurements</a> some 16 years ago. The researchers pulled a DNA molecule straight (DNA likes to curl up), and twisted it 4,800 turns while holding the ends with <a href="https://theconversation.com/arthur-ashkins-optical-tweezers-the-nobel-prize-winning-technology-that-changed-biology-104282">optical tweezers</a>. The DNA flipped from one form to another, as in the picture above. The researchers could then calculate the energy difference between the two forms. </p>
<p>But our theory could calculate this energy difference, too. We knew the entropy of each of the two versions of this DNA molecule, and the energy is simply the product of entropy and temperature. Our result was spot on – the theory seemed to hold up.</p>
<h2>From tiny to enormous</h2>
<p>Spiral galaxies are double spirals just as DNA is a double helix – mathematically speaking they have similar geometries. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285831/original/file-20190726-43153-1ru6eaz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A spiral galaxy with an overlaid double-armed logarithmic spiral.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Parker & Jeynes, Fig.2 of Scientific Reports 9|10779 (2019)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our theory shows directly why the two arms of the spiral galaxies are symmetrical – it’s because info-entropy fields give rise to forces (like other fields). The stars in the galaxy are simply choreographed by an entropic force to line up into a pair of such spirals to maximise entropy.</p>
<p>But we wanted to get some real numbers, too. We therefore decided to try to calculate the mass of our galaxy from our theory. We know how heavy the Milky Way appears to be from how fast the stars move near the galactic edge – it is about 1.3 trillion sun masses.</p>
<p>Strangely, this is actually much more than the mass of all the visible stars in the galaxy. To be able to explain this discrepancy and account for why stars move so much faster than expected, astronomers came up with the idea of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-machos-to-wimps-meet-the-top-five-candidates-for-dark-matter-51516">dark matter</a>” – unseen mass lurking in the galaxy, increasing its gravitational pull on the stars.</p>
<p>We needed to know the entropy of the galaxy for our calculations. Luckily, the mathematical physicist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Penrose">Roger Penrose</a> showed that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycles_of_Time">this entropy</a> is dominated by the entropy of its central <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermassive_black_hole">super-massive black hole</a>.</p>
<p>We know the mass of this black hole (4.3m sun masses). And amazingly, when you know the mass of a black hole, there is an <a href="http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Bekenstein-Hawking_entropy">equation</a>, discovered by the late physicist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Hawking">Stephen Hawking</a>, that calculates its entropy. Hawking also discovered how to calculate the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawking_radiation">“temperature” at its surface, or “event horizon”</a>.</p>
<p>If you can assign a “temperature” to the black hole event horizon – which has no stuff in it to have temperature – why not also assign a temperature to a galaxy? We argue in our paper that this is reasonable (using what’s known as the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sidebar-the-holographic-p/">“holographic principle”</a>). So we used our info-entropy equations to calculate the galaxy’s holographic temperature. </p>
<p>Then it gets easy. We know that the galactic energy is given by the product of its entropy and temperature. And when we know the energy we can find out the mass thanks to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/E-mc2-equation">Einstein’s famous equation</a>: E=mc<sup>2</sup>.</p>
<p>This time the result was not exactly spot on, but it was reasonably close given our highly simplified model of the galaxy. The info-entropic geometry of a galaxy not only explains how entropic forces create the beautifully symmetric shape and keep it, but also accounts for all the mass that appears to be evident in it. </p>
<p>This means that we don’t actually need dark matter after all. According to our model, the galactic entropy gives rise to such a large quantity of additional energy that it modifies the observed dynamics of the galaxy – making stars at the edge move faster than expected. This is exactly what dark matter was meant to explain. The energy isn’t directly observable as mass, but its presence is certainly supported by the astronomical observations – explaining why dark matter searches have so far found nothing. </p>
<p>There is a lot of research supporting the idea of dark matter though. Our theory suggests an alternative explanation of the observations, and needs no new physics. Of course, more detailed work is needed to verify that the true complexity of the observations can also be modelled successfully.</p>
<p>We think that the “morphogenic field” Kepler was seeking really does exist, and is actually the effect of the intertwining of information and entropy. After four long centuries, it seems Kepler has finally been vindicated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research does away with dark matter by putting ‘entropy’, a measure of disorder, at the heart of the universe.Chris Jeynes, Senior researcher, University of SurreyMichael Parker, Visiting Fellow, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1195342019-07-10T07:33:34Z2019-07-10T07:33:34ZPaper tsunami: how the move to digital medical records is leaving us drowning in old paper files<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283467/original/file-20190710-44453-1t59hje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What to do with our old paper medical files now that records are going digital? As a recent Brisbane case demonstrates, not all files are heading straight for destruction.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/146735312?src=J5pcaY86GPfK_a6VfDdq1w-1-6&studio=1&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/medical-files-dropped-on-busy-brisbane-road/11249460">recent case</a> of paper medical files from a Brisbane hospital found on a busy street highlights the need for secure, controlled disposal of medical records.</p>
<p>The files were said to be from out-patient clinics and contained patient names and their appointments, but not medical details. Now Queensland Health is investigating the circumstances of how the files came to be found in public, rather than being safely destroyed by a contractor.</p>
<p>So how are hospitals and clinics handling their old paper records as they move to electronic systems? How are they dealing with the tsunami of files that need to be safely disposed of?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cabinet-files-show-that-we-need-to-change-the-nature-of-record-keeping-91146">The Cabinet Files show that we need to change the nature of record-keeping</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Your medical records, whether paper or electronic, need to be kept while they’re relevant to your care, with restricted access to protect your privacy. But who decides when medical records are no longer needed? What happens then?</p>
<p>Governments at all levels have legislation for this. For instance, the <a href="https://www.health.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0026/397223/qh-imp-280-1.pdf">Queensland health department specifies</a> what is destroyed and when, according to a schedule from <a href="https://www.forgov.qld.gov.au/schedules/health-sector-clinical-records-retention-and-disposal-schedule">Queensland State Archives</a>. This covers medical records in the public health care system in physical form (paper, photographs, film), in electronic form or a mixture of the two.</p>
<p>This, for example, says “records displaying evidence of clinical care to an individual or groups of adult patients/clients” should be kept “for ten years after last patient/client service provision or medico-legal action”. There are a number of exceptions relating to, for example, clinical trials, mental health and communicable diseases. For each exception, there is a specific time period of how long the file needs to be kept.</p>
<p>Queensland State Archives also advises on <a href="https://www.forgov.qld.gov.au/how-destroy-records">how records are to be securely destroyed</a>, either by shredding, pulping or burning.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-healthcare-records-outlive-us-its-time-to-decide-what-happens-to-the-data-once-were-gone-81325">Our healthcare records outlive us – it's time to decide what happens to the data once we're gone</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Hospitals can contract commercial services to destroy paper files. But the document owner, in this case the hospital, is ultimately responsible for ensuring this is carried out legally. </p>
<p>The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) has established <a href="https://www.racgp.org.au/FSDEDEV/media/documents/Running%20a%20practice/Practice%20standards/4th%20edition/Standards-4th-edtion.pdf">practice standards</a> for GP clinics. These require the secure destruction (for instance, by shredding) of paper records before disposal.</p>
<p>So, hospitals and GP clinics need to develop and implement policies and procedures that state explicitly when and how medical records should be disposed of, and also keep a record of when that happens. </p>
<p>However, to determine whether an individual medical record among the vast quantities held has passed its “use by date” can be extremely resource-intensive for administrative staff. </p>
<p>This means the ultimate driver of paper record destruction is more likely to be the need to free up expensive office or storage space. It’s this sort of scenario that might eventually play out into records being accidentally or deliberately dumped wherever, whenever.</p>
<h2>The move towards digital records</h2>
<p>The Brisbane situation highlights the limitations of “business as usual” in relation to medical records, which includes paper records held in multiple locations, in hospitals, in GP clinics and with specialists.</p>
<p>Consider your own medical record “paper trail”, which may include files from hospital admissions, records held by your local doctor or other specialist, and results of blood tests and x-rays performed elsewhere. </p>
<p>At both a personal and whole-of-population level, there are clearly numerous opportunities for unintended access to these physical documents. Centrally and securely stored electronic records can address this risk, and also carry a number of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4394583/">other advantages</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/opting-out-of-my-health-records-heres-what-you-get-with-the-status-quo-100368">Opting out of My Health Records? Here's what you get with the status quo</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Privacy breaches relating to paper medical records are in part a function of a worldwide transition from a trusted familiar environment of paper records to electronic medical records.</p>
<p>This dramatically multiplies the volume of paper records needing to be destroyed — from only those that are “out of date” to every record that is scanned and made redundant.</p>
<p>The Brisbane case also highlights the sensitivity of medical records in all their forms, a factor also playing out in the <a href="https://www.myhealthrecord.gov.au/">My Health Record</a> debate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/my-health-record-the-case-for-opting-out-99302">My Health Record: the case for opting out</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Who do we trust to keep our sensitive medical records safe? Should our trust be placed in the old paper records (part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/my-health-record-the-case-for-opting-out-99302">the status quo</a>) or a <a href="https://theconversation.com/my-health-record-the-case-for-opting-in-99850">centralised electronic medical record</a>?</p>
<p>The Brisbane situation, by highlighting the limitations of paper records, certainly challenges notions of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioural-public-policy/article/when-and-why-defaults-influence-decisions-a-metaanalysis-of-default-effects/67AF6972CFB52698A60B6BD94B70C2C0">trusting the familiar and favouring the status quo</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/my-health-record-the-case-for-opting-in-99850">My Health Record: the case for opting in</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So, what can we expect?</h2>
<p>Like all transitions of this scale, there are a range of costs involved in moving from paper to electronic medical records, one of which is the prospect of further paper record data breaches as mountains of redundant records are destroyed. However these transition costs need to be balanced against the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4394583/">ultimate benefit</a> of electronic records. </p>
<p>Even accepting these benefits doesn’t necessarily mean people will automatically become more comfortable with electronic medical records, like My Health Record. For that to occur, people also have to overcome a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-trust-in-politicians-and-democracy-hits-an-all-time-low-new-research-108161">general lack of trust</a> in government.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.behaviourworksaustralia.org/">our research</a> shows it is possible to encourage people to use online government services. By harnessing behavioural science, we have shown that providing customer support and promoting the benefits and ease of online services <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0740624X18300984">helps the transition</a> from queuing and paper forms to using online services.</p>
<h2>Hope for the future</h2>
<p>In the rush to drag people to shiny new online platforms, this illustrates the simple act of talking people through the advantages and supporting their transition can address many of the psychological barriers to change.</p>
<p>Then, hopefully, we can see the end of paper medical records and services, and fewer paper records being dumped on the side of the road. As long as paper records exist they will be vulnerable to unauthorised access – either within a storage facility or in transit to destruction. However, each case of unauthorised access is dwarfed by the number of paper records successfully and securely destroyed, never able to be physically accessed again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Bragge's research institution, Monash University, receives funding from the Victorian Department of Health Services, The Victorian Managed Insurance Authority, the Transport Accident Commission and Worksafe Victoria to support research activities. None of this funding goes directly to Peter Bragge. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gillian Oliver does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Patient information dumped on the side of the road in Brisbane recently has raised the issue of how hospitals and clinics manage their old paper records.Gillian Oliver, Associate Professor and Director, Centre for Organisational & Social Informatics, Monash UniversityPeter Bragge, Associate Professor, Healthcare Quality Improvement (QI) at Behaviour Works, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1120762019-02-19T15:38:26Z2019-02-19T15:38:26ZFacebook needs regulation – here’s why it should be done by algorithms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259736/original/file-20190219-43261-o33xw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/streaming-abstract-binary-code-background-face-1119061589?src=BmOogjFgrnGZ3aCcpfYJKg-1-93">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Facebook has been likened to a “digital gangster” by a <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/1791.pdf">critical parliamentary report</a> into disinformation and fake news. One witness in the 18-month inquiry into the way digital platforms have transformed the flow of information describes the current use of technology as “hijacking our minds and society”. </p>
<p>The report, commissioned by the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee, concludes that “political choices might be influenced by online information”. It goes on to say: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We must use technology, instead, to free our minds and use regulation to restore democratic accountability. We must make sure that people stay in charge of the machines.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is an indisputable conclusion. But there is a lot less certainty around what this regulation should look like. I would argue that the algorithms that are used by Facebook and other digital media can only be controlled by algorithmic regulation. </p>
<p>The two key recommendations of the report are an investigation into Facebook’s data use and anti-competitive practices. This followed conclusions that “the Cambridge Analytica scandal was facilitated by Facebook’s policies” and “it is evident that Facebook intentionally and knowingly violated both data privacy and anti-competition laws”. Damian Collins MP, chair of the committee behind the report went so far as to say: “Companies like Facebook exercise massive market power which enables them to make money by bullying the smaller technology companies and developers who rely on this platform to reach their customers.”</p>
<h2>A new approach</h2>
<p>Regulatory scrutiny requires large volumes of information and evidence. But the pace at which platforms such as Facebook’s evolve and innovate is much faster than the time needed by the authorities to scrutinise them. Hence, evidence-based regulation is necessarily out of sync with the algorithms that control flows of information in the digital age. If there are data breaches or users are manipulated – as the report found took place with regard to voting – it is too late to regulate this after the fact.</p>
<p>A new approach to regulation is necessary. One that is <a href="http://www.oecd.org/competition/algorithms-collusion-competition-policy-in-the-digital-age.htm">based on the use of algorithms</a> to monitor digital platforms. These regulatory algorithms should be designed to collect real-time information on how the platforms shape what users see on their news feeds and timelines. They can adapt as the algorithms used by platforms adapt.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259737/original/file-20190219-43281-1rc7gvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not enough competition?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wachiwit / Shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This requires an understanding of key features of different platforms, such as the role of specific, influential users who are responsible for shaping opinion across the network. If regulators want to encourage digital literacy and get users to slow down (as the report recommended), algorithms can monitor the ways that platforms encourage the opposite. </p>
<p>When it comes to competition, the barriers to entry are high. Platforms such as Facebook and Twitter are built on what economists call <a href="https://www.vox.com/videos/2018/4/11/17226430/facebook-network-effect-video-explainer">network effects</a> – the more people using them, the more useful they are. This makes them natural monopolies. They use algorithms to boost their reach by constantly suggesting new connections to current users, thereby increasing the switching costs if users want to change to another platform. Regulatory algorithms could be designed to calculate in real time the size of direct and indirect connections for each user, and use them as a proxy for their psychological costs of switching networks.</p>
<p>Another issue for competition watchdogs is that the metrics they traditionally use to monitor market power are rendered obsolete by the business models of social media platforms. It is very difficult to measure the market share of a platform. Even if you know the number of registered users, each one should have a different weight based on their number of connections, which should in turn be weighted depending on the number of their connections. </p>
<p>One way to do this is for algorithms to produce synthetic measures of the relevance of each connection. This would follow a logic similar to that used by Google in ranking the relevance of search suggestions, considering not only immediate connections, but also the sequence of their weighted connections, measuring how central various users are to the network. Thus, they could provide a much better approximation of market shares. </p>
<p>Until now, big tech companies have largely been left to regulate themselves. The UK report rightly challenges this and makes clear that this era of self-regulation must end. But, more than this, a concerted effort is needed to develop new tools to face the scale and, critically, the timing of the threats posed by the enormous market power concentrated in the data centres of a few dominant platforms. </p>
<p>If social media platforms can deploy advanced algorithms to process information on their users in real time, while simultaneously learning from this data, regulators must do the same in terms of monitoring them. The priority for policy makers must switch to prevention, rather than investigating and punishing abuses after society is already damaged. Regulatory algorithms can react in real time to the strategies of various platforms, thereby improving the likelihood of people staying in charge of the machines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emanuele Giovannetti is currently vice rapporteur for the Study Group 1 Question 4.1 of the Telecommunication Development Sector (ITU-D) of the International Telecommunication Union, representing Anglia Ruskin University as Academia member of the ITU. He is also Governing Body Fellow of Hughes Hall, University of Cambridge and is a member of the steering board for the Digital Sector Strategy elaborated with Cambridge Wireless, for the Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority. The opinions expressed in this article are personal and do not represent the opinions of any of these affiliations. Emanuele is also past recipient of research grants from the EU-FP7 programme for the study of the Internet upstream markets in Europe and from the former UK Department for Business Innovation and Skills, BIS, for the study of Innovation and Productivity in the UK.</span></em></p>The end of the era of self-regulation for big tech companies is nigh.Emanuele Giovannetti, Full Professor in Economics, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1084602018-12-10T20:54:05Z2018-12-10T20:54:05ZYou make decisions quicker and based on less information than you think<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249790/original/file-20181210-76962-1khvv3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">You're probably wrong about how long it would take you to know they're 'the one.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/3AWGSf9xEmc">rawpixel/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in an age of information. In theory, we can learn everything about anyone or anything at the touch of a button. All this information should allow us to make super-informed, data-driven decisions all the time.</p>
<p>But the widespread availability of information does not mean that you actually use it even if you have it. In fact, decades of research in psychology and behavioral science find that people readily make data-poor snap judgments in a variety of instances. People form <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01750.x">lasting impressions of others</a> in the span of milliseconds, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.64.3.431">evaluators judge teachers in less than a minute</a> and <a href="http://www.acrwebsite.org/search/view-conference-proceedings.aspx?Id=9550">consumers make shopping decisions</a> based on little deliberation. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1110589">Even voting decisions</a> can seemingly be predicted from preliminary impressions formed during incredibly brief time periods. </p>
<p>If these findings seem remarkable to you, recent research by <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dy1B5DIAAAAJ&hl=en">my colleague</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3-dF9hEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and me</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805327115">suggests that you are not alone</a>. The immediacy of human judgment generally surprises people. Individuals fail to anticipate how little information they and others use when making decisions.</p>
<p>And this disconnect can have implications in daily life: After all, recognizing how much – or little – information people actually use to make judgments and decisions could influence how much you try to share with others. A job candidate should have a sense of how much of her resume prospective employers will actually read so she can prioritize her efforts accordingly.</p>
<p>And it would help when you’re deciding how much information to acquire when making your own decisions. How long should you try out a subscription service before deciding whether you like it enough to pay? How much time should you date a love interest before deciding to tie the knot?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249810/original/file-20181210-76965-4sqgad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">You probably believe you take a ton of research into account before you make a big choice … but you probably don’t.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vintage-glasses-on-books-stack-home-1162709212">Akira Kaelyn/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Comparing predictions and reality</h2>
<p>In our research, my co-author <a href="http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/eob/">Ed O’Brien</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3-dF9hEAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805327115">tested whether people can correctly anticipate</a> how much information they and others use when making varied judgments. We consistently found that people were surprised by how quickly they make judgments and how little information they use doing so.</p>
<p>In one study, we asked participants to imagine having pleasant or unpleasant interactions with another person. In comparison, we asked another group of participants to predict how many of those interactions they would need to experience to determine someone’s character. We found that people believed they would need many interactions to make this judgment, when in fact the first group needed few.</p>
<p>In another study, we asked MBA students to write applications for hypothetical management positions, and then asked actual HR people to read their materials. Our applicants wrote and shared much more material than the hiring professionals cared to read.</p>
<p>We also asked people who have never been married to predict how long, after meeting their future spouse, it would take them to decide that this person is “the one.” Fully 39 percent of these never-marrieds thought they would need to date this person more than year before they’d feel ready to spend the rest of their lives with him or her. In contrast, married people reported having made this judgment much more quickly, with only 18 percent stating that it took them more than a year to do so.</p>
<p>Similar mispredictions occur when evaluating subscription services based on trial periods, tasting novel beverages, and evaluating streaks of luck, athletic performances and academic grades. In all cases, people believed they would use more information than they actually did. </p>
<h2>Misunderstanding this human tendency</h2>
<p>There are several reasons why people might have the wrong impression about how quickly they and others make judgments.</p>
<p>One possibility is a belief that the human mind processes information incrementally. A naive perspective might imagine that new information stacks on top of old information until some mental threshold is reached for making a decision. In reality, however, preliminary research suggests that information aggregation is much closer to an exponential function; the first few pieces of information are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124">weighted much more heavily</a> than later information.</p>
<p>Another possibility is that people fail to realize how rich and engrossing each separate piece of information is. In psychology, this is called an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.24.4.S49">empathy gap</a>. Consider the question of how many interactions are necessary for you to decide whether you like and trust someone. It may be tempting to believe you’ll rationally evaluate each interaction as you would a dry statistic. But social encounters are vivid and engaging, and the first experience may simply be so absorbing as to tilt your judgment irrevocably, making future interactions unnecessary.</p>
<h2>Recognizing the rush to judgment</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1123&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1123&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249792/original/file-20181210-76971-xdzhwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1123&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In plenty of cases, a quick decision is just fine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/SQM0sS0htzw">Raquel Martínez/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s not clear that quick decisions are always bad. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1110589">Sometimes snap judgments are remarkably accurate</a> and they can save time. It would be crippling to comb through all the available information on a topic every time a decision must be made. However, misunderstanding how much information we actually use to make our judgments has important implications beyond making good or bad decisions.</p>
<p>Take the problem of self-fulfilling prophesies. Imagine a situation in which a manager forms a tentative opinion of an employee that then cascades into a series of decisions that affect that employee’s entire career trajectory. A manager who sees an underling make a small misstep in an insignificant project may avoid assigning challenging projects in the future, which in turn would hamstring this employee’s career prospects. If managers are unaware how willing they are to make quick and data-poor initial judgments, they’ll be less likely to nip these self-fulfilling destructive cycles in the bud.</p>
<p>Another example might be the human tendency to rely on stereotypes when judging other people. Although you may believe that you’ll consider all the information available about another person, people in fact are more likely to consider very little information and let <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1164951">stereotypes</a> <a href="http://web.comhem.se/u52239948/08/devine89.pdf">creep in</a>. It may be a failure to understand how quickly judgments get made that make it so hard to exclude the influence of stereotyping.</p>
<p>Modern technology allows virtually any decision made today to be more informed than the same decision made a few decades ago. But the human reliance on quick judgments may forestall this promise. In the quest for more informed decision-making, researchers will need to explore ways to encourage people to slow down the speed of judgment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadav Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research confirms that people tend to rush to judgment, in spite of believing their own decisions and those of others are carefully based on lots of evidence and data. And that can be good or bad.Nadav Klein, Postdoctoral Researcher at Harris Public Policy, University of ChicagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048172018-10-15T21:29:49Z2018-10-15T21:29:49ZBig Fail: The internet hasn’t helped democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240599/original/file-20181015-165888-1a4fk3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New research shows that more and more of our public conversation is unfolding within a dwindling coterie of sites that are controlled by a small few, largely unregulated and geared primarily to profit rather than public interest.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hardly a week goes by without news of another data breach at a large corporation affecting millions, <a href="https://www.crn.com.au/news/facebook-says-data-breach-affected-29-million-users-513917">most recently Facebook.</a> </p>
<p>In 2016, the issue became political with evidence of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/20/us/politics/russia-trump-election-timeline.html">Russian interference in the U.S. election</a> and the spectre of foreign control over public opinion.</p>
<p>American lawmakers called on Facebook’s CEO to account <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/11/mark-zuckerbergs-testimony-to-congress-the-key-moments">in high-profile congressional hearings</a>, but the discussion focused mainly on privacy and personal data.</p>
<p>We have yet to come to terms with the staggering degree of control the major platforms exercise over political speech and what it means for democracy.</p>
<p>A new book on the economics of attention online urges us to do so. It shows that more and more of our public conversation is unfolding within a dwindling coterie of sites that are controlled by a small few, largely unregulated and geared primarily to profit rather than public interest.</p>
<h2>False earlier assumptions about the net</h2>
<p>In the recently published <em><a href="https://press.princeton.edu/titles/13236.html">The Internet Trap: How the Digital Economy Builds Monopolies and Undermines Democracy</a></em> author and professor <a href="https://politicalscience.columbian.gwu.edu/matthew-hindman">Matthew Hindman</a> suggests that as we enter the web’s third decade, market forces drive the vast majority of traffic and profit to an exceedingly small group of sites, with no change on the horizon.</p>
<p>Hindman’s findings unsettle an earlier picture of the web as a tool for broader civic engagement and a healthier democracy — a view prominently associated with Harvard’s Yochai Benkler.</p>
<p>In his 2006 book <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300125771/wealth-networks"><em>The Wealth of Networks</em></a>, Benkler noted that in the industrial age, one could only reach a wider audience by making “ever-larger investments in physical capital” — for example in telegraphs, presses, radio and TV transmitters — ensuring a corporate monopoly over public speech.</p>
<p>But with digital networks enabling anyone to reach millions of people for virtually nothing, the public sphere was sure to become more accessible, diverse and robust. Others were equally bullish. </p>
<p>In the 2008 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/300615/here-comes-everybody-by-clay-shirky/9780143114949/"><em>Here Comes Everybody</em></a>, Clay Shirky saw the new terrain fostering a “mass amateurization” of cultural and political engagement.</p>
<h2>Reality was less rosy</h2>
<p>Yet, as Hindman wrote in 2008 in <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/titles/8781.html"><em>The Myth of Digital Democracy</em></a>, the blogosphere did not result in a great dispersal of attention or a big increase in audience diversity. By decade’s end, news and political organizations online remained highly concentrated.</p>
<p>James Webster corroborated this view in 2014’s <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/marketplace-attention"><em>The Marketplace of Attention</em></a>, showing that greater diversity and polarization on the web had been “overstated.” The long online tail stretches far, he noted, but few tend to dwell for long in the “sanctuaries” at its extremes.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240598/original/file-20181015-165891-177cbo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Early assumptions that the web would be boon to democracy have proven woefully false.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Schnobrich/Unsplash</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In <em>The Internet Trap</em>, Hindman extends the inquiry, finding that while the net does lower the basic cost of mass communication, the cost of building and keeping a large audience remains high.</p>
<p>Studying the rise of sites like Google and Amazon, Hindman found that the net’s most popular sites built and maintained their audiences by harnessing “a host of economies of scale” that go beyond network effects.</p>
<p>Popular sites have the staff and resources to ensure their sites “load faster,” “are prettier and more usable” and “have more content updated more frequently.” Their users are “more practised in navigating” their sites and return more often, boosting their search rankings and ad revenue.</p>
<h2>What it means for news and political speech</h2>
<p>We often assume small newspapers “have a revenue problem, not a readership problem.” Hindman shows they have both. Tracking some 250,000 users in the “100 largest local media markets” in the United States, he found that local news sites garner roughly one-sixth of news traffic, and “just one-half of one per cent of traffic overall.”</p>
<p>The smaller players online are thus becoming ever more marginal to the larger political conversation. Hindman counsels them to build stickier sites — less cluttered, faster to load, fresher.</p>
<p>But his findings suggest it may not be that simple.</p>
<p>Hindman’s work points to a future where a few sites exert an outsized influence over public debate, raising a host of concerns.</p>
<p>Russian interference in another major election by hacking a hugely popular platform like Facebook is obviously one of them. </p>
<p>More crucially, as British historian <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jun/21/how-democracy-ends-david-runciman-review">Mark Mazower notes</a>, the near-monopoly over attention online by Facebook and other large sites threatens democracy by constraining conversation in terms of “profits not politics.” </p>
<p>The large portals encourage “instant gratification, when democracy presupposes a capacity for frustration and patience.” As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jun/21/how-democracy-ends-david-runciman-review">Mazower writes</a>: “Populism is the natural condition of democratic politics in the age of Twitter.”</p>
<p>If our picture of the web as a tool for citizen empowerment is a mostly a mirage, it’s time we regulated the dominant sites more effectively in order to serve the public interest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104817/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Diab does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research into the economics of attention online casts doubt on the net’s role in fostering public debate, and raises concerns about the future of democracy.Robert Diab, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/952282018-04-19T20:04:51Z2018-04-19T20:04:51ZWhat might appear to be common sense is not always based on scientific evidence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215532/original/file-20180419-163995-ztaab2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The quest for scientific evidence can trace its roots back to the classic masters of rhetoric.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AboutLife/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The term “evidence” has a fascinating linguistic and social history – and it’s a good reminder that even today the truth of scientific evidence depends on it being presented in a convincing way.</p>
<p>As recent climate change scepticism shows, the fortunes of scientific evidence can be swayed by something as fleeting as a tweet.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"265895292191248385"}"></div></p>
<p>But what does it even mean to speak of “scientific evidence”?</p>
<h2>The art of persuasion</h2>
<p>History reveals that scientific forms of evidence have rarely, if ever, been detached from rhetoric. In fact, the very idea of evidence has its origins within the context of classical rhetoric, the art of persuasion.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-you-know-that-what-you-know-is-true-thats-epistemology-63884">How do you know that what you know is true? That's epistemology</a>
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<p>Our modern term originates from the ancient Greek ἐνάργεια (<em>enargeia</em>), a rhetorical device whereby words were used to enhance the truth of a speech through constructing a vivid and evocative image of the things related. </p>
<p>Far from independent and objective, <em>enargeia</em> depended entirely on the abilities of the orator.</p>
<p>In the hands of an exceptional orator – such as the ancient Greek poet <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Homer-Greek-poet">Homer</a> – it could be deployed so effectively that listeners came to believe themselves eyewitnesses to what was being described.</p>
<h2>Before the court</h2>
<p>Aware of its utility to the law, the Roman statesman <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Cicero">Marcus Tullius Cicero</a> brought <em>enargeia</em> into forensic rhetoric during the 1st century BCE, translating it into Latin as <em>evidentia</em>. </p>
<p>For Roman orators such as Cicero and, in the 1st century AD, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Quintilian">Marcus Fabius Quintilian</a>, <em>evidentia</em> was particularly well suited to the courtroom.</p>
<p>Here it could be used to paint the scene of a grisly murder: The blood, the groans, the last breath of the dying victim. Recounting the scene of a murder in vivid language brought it immediately before the mind’s eye, affording it the quality of <em>evidentia</em> (“evidentness”) in the process. </p>
<p>Such detail was of paramount importance. The more detail the orator could furnish, the more likely it was that his account would convince the jury of its truth.</p>
<p>From its inception, then, <em>enargeia/evidentia</em> was a device that was used by one person to convince another about a particular reality that might not otherwise <em>be evident</em>. There was an art to it.</p>
<h2>Scientific evidence</h2>
<p>We can be forgiven for forgetting that the idea of scientific evidence originates in the art of rhetoric, for early modern scientists went to considerable lengths to disassociate the idea from its classical past.</p>
<p>Through their efforts, the meaning of evidence was shifted from a rhetorical device to denote something sufficiently <em>self-evident</em> that inferences could be drawn from it.</p>
<p>Adopting the English translation of <em>evidentia</em> from the common law in the 1660s, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Robert-Boyle">Robert Boyle</a> (1627-1691), <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Robert-Hooke">Robert Hooke</a> (1635-1703) and other practitioners of the new science situated “evidence” as the end result of unbiased observation and experimentation.</p>
<p>Unlike classical <em>evidentia</em>, scientific “evidence” was objective because it <em>spoke for itself</em>. As the motto of the newly-minted <a href="https://royalsociety.org/about-us/history/">Royal Society of London</a> - <em>nullius in verba</em> - stressed, its members were to “take no one’s word for it”.</p>
<p>Just like forensic <em>evidentia</em>, the truth of scientific evidence was based on its immediacy.</p>
<p>Hooke’s microscope, to give an example, permitted the viewer to witness first-hand the compound eye of the dronefly in such marvellous detail as to leave him or her without any doubt of its reality – a “see-for-yourself” mindset that was crucial to the success of science.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/215520/original/file-20180419-163975-10xqo9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An illustration by Christopher Wren of the compound eye of a drone fly, contained in Robert Hooke’s book Micrographia: or Some Phyſiological Deſcriptions of Minute Bodies Made by Magnifying Glasses. With Observations and Inquiries Thereupon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/micrographia-by-robert-hooke-1665">British Library</a></span>
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<p>Yet in practice, because most people were unable to peer through the eyepiece of a microscope, the evidence Hooke collected remained largely reliant on testimony. </p>
<p>Whether one accepted Hooke’s evidence for a previously unknown, microscopic world depended more on the painstakingly detailed illustrations and descriptions he gave in his 1665 <a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15491">Micrographia</a> than the observations themselves. </p>
<p>Contrary to the Royal Society’s motto, it was not the things themselves but the way in which they were presented – and their presentation by a morally upstanding expert – that ultimately did most of the convincing.</p>
<p>The same holds true today. The invisible structures, processes and interactions that scientists train for years to observe remain unobservable to most people.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/ocean-warming-18392">temperature changes</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sea-level-rise-6790">sea level rises</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/ocean-acidification-6831">acidification</a> of the ocean that comprise some of the vast and complex evidence for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/climate-change-27">climate change</a> require, in many cases, expensive equipment, years of monitoring and specialists trained to interpret the data before climate change becomes evident.</p>
<p>Even when evident to scientists, this does not make climate change evidence <em>evident</em> to the average person.</p>
<h2>Climate change sceptics</h2>
<p>US president Donald Trump’s scepticism about climate change is a potent example of just how intertwined scientific evidence and rhetoric remain.</p>
<p>So far the <a href="http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/">Twitter Trump Archive</a> has recorded 99 mentions of “global warming” and 32 mentions of “climate change” (both appear in some tweets) by <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a>.</p>
<p>Situating his tweets as evidence against climate change, Trump poses rhetorical questions to his 50 million followers:</p>
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<p>In marked contrast to the complex evidence for climate change, Trump positions his tweets as common sense evidence against it. In this, immediacy is on his side. Freezing weather is readily apparent to everyone, not just to scientists.</p>
<p>Trump’s followers are made direct witnesses to the truth of climate change by appeal to that which is most evident to them and thus, by implication, that which is <em>the best evidence</em>.</p>
<p>Even if a record cold and snow spell is not, in reality, evidence against climate change, its capacity to convince is greater because, unlike genuine evidence for climate change, it is both simple and immediate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-isnt-broken-but-we-can-do-better-heres-how-95139">Science isn't broken, but we can do better: here's how</a>
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<p>Evidence for climate change, on the other hand, requires trust in the scientific community, a trust that is meant to offset its lack of immediacy and which asks us to suspend our senses.</p>
<p>Trump’s tweets aim to delegitimise this trust, empowering his followers by telling them to trust the evidence of their own senses, their own expertise.</p>
<p>As scientific evidence has become increasingly complex, so too has the idea of “clear scientific evidence” become an oxymoron. If anything, Trump’s assault on climate change should serve as a reminder that making scientific evidence evident enough to convince the public is an art that needs to be embraced.</p>
<p>Scientific evidence can’t always be expected to speak for itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95228/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James A. T. Lancaster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What we regard today as scientific evidence can trace its roots back to the ancient art of persuasion.James A. T. Lancaster, UQ Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921672018-02-26T11:16:42Z2018-02-26T11:16:42ZWashington has meddled in elections before<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207768/original/file-20180225-108139-142gesz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Violeta Chamorro President of Nicaragua meets with former President Bush in the Oval Office at the White House in 1992.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“They have no damn right,” former Vice President <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-tweet-tough-on-russia-white-house-robert-mueller-probe/">Joe Biden said</a> on Feb. 16, denouncing Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.</p>
<p>“It’s our sovereign right to be able to conduct our elections unfettered. Period.” </p>
<p>Biden spoke for many Americans who are indignant over the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/us/politics/russians-indicted-mueller-election-interference.html">mounting evidence</a> of a multifaceted effort by the Kremlin to sow discord among Americans and tilt the election <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-may-owe-his-2016-victory-to-fake-news-new-study-suggests-91538">in favor of Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<p>There is some irony to this. The United States has been covertly interfering in other nations’ politics – including elections – for at least three-quarters of a century. It still does today. Latin America, the focus of <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=xBhSo7CBLMMC&q=violeta+chamorro#v=snippet&q=violeta%20chamorro&f=false">my own research</a>, has been a frequent target.</p>
<p>Rather then <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-twitter-bots-affected-the-us-presidential-campaign-68406">using Facebook and Twitter</a> to create make-believe organizations, the CIA organized front groups. Rather than creating bots to spread fake news, the CIA bribed foreign journalists, financed foreign newspapers and set up false flag radio stations. The disruptive goals of information warfare have not changed over the decades, only the technology has.</p>
<p>Here are just a few of the most notorious examples of U.S. election meddling.</p>
<h2>The CIA’s ‘Mighty Wurlitzer’</h2>
<p>The origins of Washington’s political warfare – known then as psychological operations, or psy-ops – trace back to the beginning of the Cold War.</p>
<p>The U.S. feared that Western European Communist parties would ascend to power by winning elections. One of the very first covert actions by the CIA’s new operational wing, directed by Frank Wisner, was a concerted effort to prevent the Italian Communist Party from winning the 1948 election. Washington funneled several million dollars to the conservative, pro-American Christian Democrats.</p>
<p><a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/coldwar/interviews/episode-3/wyatt4.html">Former CIA officer</a> F. Mark Wyatt explained, “We had bags of money that we delivered to selected politicians, to defray their expenses, their campaign expenses, for posters, for pamphlets, what have you.” </p>
<p>Whether the CIA’s support made the difference or not, Washington interpreted the Christian Democrats’ victory as a huge success. The agency used it as proof of concept for a model of political manipulation that the CIA continued to employ in Italy for the next several decades and replicated around the world. </p>
<p>Wisner built <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1977/12/26/archives/worldwide-propaganda-network-built-by-the-cia-a-worldwide-network.html">a network</a> of foreign journalists, newspapers and magazines known officially as the Propaganda Assets Inventory. Wisner liked to call it his “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/books/review/Glazer-t.html">Mighty Wurlitzer</a>,” after <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avu9Weua9EU">Wurlitzer-brand organs</a>. It was a propaganda instrument so powerful, it could play any tune to audiences worldwide.</p>
<h2>Applying the Italian model in Latin America</h2>
<p>The CIA sought to replicate its Italian success in Chile. In the 1960s, Chile, like Italy, had formidable socialist and communist parties contending for electoral power. The CIA <a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/news/20040925/index.htm">began funding</a> Chile’s Christian Democrats in 1962, helping them win a narrow victory over socialist Salvador Allende in 1964.</p>
<p>In 1970, a socialist-communist coalition led by Allende won the presidential election. The United States escalated its <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/94chile.pdf">covert support</a> for the opposition, including the far right, encouraging political polarization and violence. This set the stage for Chile’s 1973 military coup in which Allende died. A linchpin of the CIA’s political war against Allende was Chile’s main newspaper, <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/chile/2017-04-25/agustin-edwards-declassified-obituary">El Mercurio</a>, which attacked Allende’s government without respite, spreading disinformation.</p>
<p>A decade later, the CIA enlisted <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03064228508533886?journalCode=rioc20">La Prensa</a>, Nicaragua’s main newspaper, to play a similar role in a covert war to overthrow the Sandinista leftist government. As in Chile, the CIA funneled funds to a wide variety of opposition political parties, private sector groups and voluntary organizations – not to mention creating a counterrevolutionary paramilitary army, the “contras,” in neighboring Honduras. The Reagan administration’s funding of the contras in defiance of a congressional ban led to the Iran-contra scandal.</p>
<p>In 1990, the CIA <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=xBhSo7CBLMMC&q=violeta+chamorro#v=snippet&q=violeta%20chamorro&f=false">brokered an agreement</a> among the Sandinistas’ disparate opponents to support Violeta Chamorro of the National Opposition Unity party for president. The CIA funded her successful campaign.</p>
<p>In neighboring El Salvador, politics had also become polarized between the far right and revolutionary left. U.S. financial backing <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=xBhSo7CBLMMC&q=violeta+chamorro#v=snippet&q=violeta%20chamorro&f=false">was indispensable</a> in keeping the Christian Democratic Party viable throughout the 1980s. Its leader, Jose Napoleon Duarte, was a paid CIA informant. The agency helped fund his unsuccessful 1982 election campaign for provisional president, to be selected by a new Constituent Assembly. He was defeated by the notorious death squad organizer and far right leader Roberto D’Aubuisson. However, the U.S. Embassy deprived D'Aubuisson of the presidency by threatening to cut military aid if the armed forces allowed him to take office. The military then installed a president of their own choosing, Alvaro Magana. Duarte ran again in 1984, with the CIA’s support, and won.</p>
<p>Since the Cold War era, Washington has adapted its approach for the digital age. For example, in 2014, the <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/united-states-cuba-twitter-105333">Associated Press</a> reported that the United States had created two social networking apps, ZunZuneo and Piramideo, which it distributed to Cubans free of charge in order to create a channel for distributing anti-government mesages.</p>
<h2>What makes political warfare possible?</h2>
<p>The cases in which the CIA’s money and propaganda, what today people often refer to as “fake news,” successfully tipped the electoral scales all have one thing in common: The CIA was able to find eager partners among local elites. These elites were willing to collude with a foreign power in order to gain the upper hand over domestic opponents. </p>
<p>Polarization in the target countries was so intense that people could rationalize behavior that might otherwise be regarded as treasonous. They saw it as a lesser evil than allowing their opponents to prevail.</p>
<p>Sound familiar? Now, the United States has become the target country, with our elections under attack. Facebook and Twitter are <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-regulation-of-social-media-would-be-a-cure-far-worse-than-the-disease-86911">scrambling to control</a> the proliferation of Russian bots and fake news. But I believe it is the polarization of American politics that has created an environment in which people believe the most fantastic lies demonizing their fellow Americans. This has made the U.S. vulnerable to the techniques of foreign manipulation that the U.S. so often inflicted on others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William M. LeoGrande does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Decades ago, the CIA created a secret department dedicated to spreading anti-communist propaganda around the globe. A scholar explains how it is comparable to Russian meddling through social media.William M. LeoGrande, Professor of Government, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.